How not to invest (2)

Chuck fears risk. He read my post on the weekend, and worried some more. “Many people park their money in high interest savings accounts because they have been burned in the markets before,” he said. “While a high interest saving account may yield a negative return after inflation, it has still outperformed my balanced portfolio which is down almost 5% YTD.”

Such a human thing to say.

Chuck’s up at night these days because his investments, almost half in fixed income and half in growth ETFs, are off by 5%. This compares to, say, equity mutual funds which reflect the TSX (down 19%), the Dow (off 16%) or emerging markets (lower by 22%). Even gold has cratered 15%. As markets decline amid a global slowdown, looming US recession and European debt debauchery, Chuck sees growing risk. He wishes he could hide.

Of course, he’s got it wrong. Like the fools still buying houses in Vancouver and Mississauga Chuck’s convinced there is less risk in rising markets and greater risk in falling ones. When asset values rise, he’s confident. When they fall, he’s into the scotch. Like I said, very human.

This is why most people suck at investing, and completely misunderstand the nature of risk. If they thought about it, instead of emoting over it, they’d see every time markets fall (houses, stocks, bonds, gold), risk comes off the table. Every time they rise, it increases. After all, if you’re paying $1.3 million for a fixer-upper on the west side of Vancouver, or buying an ounce of gold at $1,900, or an ETF when stocks are at a 52-week high, you’re paying too much. Your odds of losing money are about 100%.

Sadly, our brain tells us otherwise. We fear losses more than we covet gains. So we’re happy to make nothing in a bank account when markets fall, and fire financial advisors who serve up 2% when they rise.

This is why most of the people you know are headed for the ditch.

Think back three years. The winter of 2008-9 brought a wave of worry. Stock markets fell. Companies bled jobs. The real estate market froze and prices melted. The media teemed with dire stories. Everybody wished they’d seen it coming, vowed to cut back on their debt, then bailed out of their stocks and equity mutual funds. The apex of selling came in the early days of March, 2009.

There are parallels today. It’s not 2008 (no big corporate bloodletting, no credit freeze, no bank failures) but it’ll sure fell the same (markets wobble, housing suffers, economy shrinks).

The biggest difference from then: most people have less liquidity, more debt, fewer savings and no diversification. The three-year-long real estate binge, fuelled by emergency interest rates, created a false wealth effect which made folks forget what it felt like to stand on the edge of an abyss. Soon that feeling will reappear. This time, with most of their net worth in a single asset and a mortgage the size of regret, there’s no financial fairy to save them. Rates can’t plunge. The government’s in debt. Wages going nowhere.

In other words, they had three years to learn some lessons, and absorbed none. Just as greed drove equity investors in 2007 to eschew balance and eat risk by jumping into a rising market, so homeowners have done the same. They bought higher, expecting higher. They borrowed big, expecting gains. They gambled and called it investing.

In fact anyone who concentrates their wealth in one place – houses, gold, silver, stocks, commodities – is going to live 2008 and 2009 all over again. Only this time the pain could last half a decade, or more.

Meanwhile, what about being happy with making 2% in the manly comfort of the orange guy’s shorts?

No issue, if you already have a million or two. That should see you most of the way through retirement.

But if your net worth’s less than seven figures, with a few decades to go before buying your first package of Depends and installing a walk-in bathtub, you’re courting the greatest risk of all. Running out of money. Saving enough to finance thirty years after work will be virtually impossible, unless interest rates quadruple. And that ain’t going to happen.

So, back to Chucky. He moans over a 5% ‘loss,’ which is no loss at all if he doesn’t sell. His balanced portfolio has saved him from three-quarters of the market meltdown. It instantly positions him to gain when recovery takes hold (and it always does). He owns assets that produce income. He’s liquid and diversified. And over time, as history shows, he’ll prosper.

Unless, of course, he reads this pathetic blog’s comments.

Oh, the humanity.

Global BC: where the pumping never stops

… and where a new condo building and a mall are worth 4:46 of your life. Amazing.

  Garth’s latest podcast is here.

167 comments ↓

#1 fancy_pants on 09.25.11 at 9:12 pm

speaking of how to invest (or not), asian markets already down in early Monday trading. Fear takes on many faces… or are the tanking markets a justified correction? [insert opinion here]

#2 Bolo on 09.25.11 at 9:14 pm

As always, another great post!

#3 first??? on 09.25.11 at 9:15 pm

prob not

#4 Jesse Livermore on 09.25.11 at 9:26 pm

Garth you have repeatedly said real estate should be dumped and capital gains harvested. Why wouldn’t you advocate the same for the two plus year run stocks have had? Why wouldn’t you dump your equity holdings and then buy back in when the dust has settled?

With a balanced portfolio that’s a constant process through rebalancing. Besides, greater men than you and I have failed at timing. — Garth

#5 Tim on 09.25.11 at 9:30 pm

Surrey is a shithole! High crime, it stinks, it looks ugly, it is overloaded with stripmalls, it is not transit-friendly, and you wouldn’t know you are in Canada if you landed from a helicopter. If you have to commute from Surrey it is a nightmare. I wouldn’t buy a house there for any price.

#6 Tim on 09.25.11 at 9:34 pm

Olympic Village is a good place to live if you are deaf or don’t mind lots of noise, don’t mind living in very sardine-like conditions and don’t mind living in shoddy constructed condos. Let’s just hope there’s enough stupid people to buy these condos so we taxpayers are not on the hook, thanks to the boobs at City Hall who haven’t even acknowledged they screwed up royally.

#7 The American on 09.25.11 at 9:37 pm

Damn. Canadians must be terribly bored. The real estate game is over, very old news, and ending the same in all markets globally. It won’t be any different in BC either. You’re asking the same damn questions and orese ting the same damn hypo scenarios as every other market did over five years ago. Did you not learn a god damned thing? Others may have been naive, but Canadians must be insane. After all, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly, yet expecting different results. Is there not ANYTHING better to do with your time but to make yet another bland, architrcturally insignificant tower the center of the news? Same old shit, different day for BC.

Meanwhile, I am enjoying my vacation in Peru. Tomorrow is Arequipa where I will actually learn something about ancient culture and a completely different way of life – not turning on the tele to hear more bullshit, fake “news” forced down one’s throat about more brick an mortar that will only be 40% occupied like every other tower in Vancouver. Such a farce.

#8 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.25.11 at 9:46 pm

From that Global News clip — apparently it is good news that the Olympic Village condos are “almost 60% sold”?

Weren’t they 40%-50% sold back in February? And – don’t most other condo buildings in Vancouver sell hundreds of units in the first day?

#9 Surrey's Crook's on 09.25.11 at 9:48 pm

More
Empty
Spaces

To fool
The mental state
The 99percent.

Ron
Paul1%
Is not yet
A mandarin Man.

#10 Phil on 09.25.11 at 9:49 pm

Whalley is the most disgusting place in BC, hands down.

#11 Beach Girl on 09.25.11 at 9:49 pm

Upset.

#12 Ben on 09.25.11 at 9:52 pm

Yes they are pretty ugly looking condo towers.

#13 squidly77 on 09.25.11 at 9:55 pm

60% sold = 40% vacancy rate or 4/10 condos are unloved and unwanted.

#14 Amarillo on 09.25.11 at 9:57 pm

But if your net worth’s less than seven figures, with a few decades to go before buying your first package of Depends and installing a walk-in bathtub, you’re courting the greatest risk of all. Running out of money.
—————————————-
I hear ya. In other words, a defined-benefit-plan is worth … what exactly? Let’s see, a DBP that pays $25,000 a year is worth a lump-sum of … $833,333? IE, $25k/3%=$25 large. Is 3% a reasonable discount rate?

#15 Aaron - Melbourne on 09.25.11 at 10:02 pm

A tale of two cities?

Here in Melbourne Australia my landlady postponed the auction with less than 24hrs to go. During the showings there was not a great deal of interest despite the property being on a large lot (700m2).

A few streets away the insanity continued unabated with a sale of a similar property – bidders pushed the price to $846k for a 843m2 lot.

Both places are “tear downs” located 7km from the Melbourne central business district .

#16 TurnerNation on 09.25.11 at 10:03 pm

Look at :27 sec into the clip. You can toss a stone and have it land on the building’s balcony across from you. Feng Shui aside, that’s a damn close gap.

I’m from Ont. and even I know Surrey is the armpit (or worse) of GVA.

#17 neo on 09.25.11 at 10:13 pm

Garth..Garth…Garth…

Gold is NOT down YTD 15%. It is UP 23% YTD. If you are going to use Chuck’s 5% YTD as proxy try to be consistent and not refer to a months worth of data.

By the way, the REAL selling we are seeing in the Global Stock Markets are big players unwinding their long positions in the emerging world, mainly, as well as the developed world. They are as you say crystallizing their profits, not panic selling. They bought low and are selling high and will by low again, real low, rinse and repeat. These declines for the most part, at least from a technically standpoint, have been very orderly so far.

The people you speak of who are doing whatever panic selling constitute an ever increasing small portion of the market. Mutual Fund redemptions have never gotten off the mat since 2007 and Mutual Funds are at their lowest cash flow position in years. The real “panic” selling in the U.S. has more to do with cashing in their 401K’s just to live day to day and pay bills. That is the reality.

Decline figures for equity and PM markets are from recent highs. — Garth

#18 Amarillo on 09.25.11 at 10:13 pm

There was a young man from Boston
Who bought himself a new Austin.
There was room for his ass
And a nice bag of grass
But the rest hung out — and he lost ’em.
Arriving in Vancouver he flared,
‘This place is so pricey I’m scared.
The girls are few and don’t respond to my wooin’s
I’m going back home to my Brooins.

#19 Elmer on 09.25.11 at 10:27 pm

Hey Gartholomew, some of the advice you give is contradictory. You say to own things that give you income, but in another blog entry a few months ago you said that someone shouldn’t own income funds unless they need income at the moment. So should I or shouldn’t I be putting things like XDV in my portfolio, assuming I won’t need my money until retirement (35 years from now)?

Unneeded income = tax. — Garth

#20 Agent Provocateur on 09.25.11 at 10:36 pm

Did anyone notice the ethnicity of the good people lining up to buy at the Olympic Village?

#21 Carp on 09.25.11 at 10:40 pm

Your should here what they say about Surrey girls and women!

#22 nonplused on 09.25.11 at 10:40 pm

“the size of regret” – love it. Garth, I have to admit even when I don’t agree with you about one thing or another, I like your writing talent.

Looks like you’ve been giving us a bit of a preview here into the upcoming book. Love the topic so count on my $20. Don’t rush it though, because I think it’s a subject that needs to be deep treated, there are lots of surface skims already.

Always so negative on the comments section. Haven’t you figure out yet that your comments section is one of the two legs your site stands on? Ok, it’s the shorter leg, but even you don’t want to cut it off, which you could. Some of your commenters probably already have 1 or 2 million. Some of them might even be very liquid. And at least this one is renting in style, at a 2.5% cap rate for the owner, no taxes no maintenance. I did have to put one of those hanging pot hangers over the island in the kitchen and a shelf/bathrobe hanger in the expansive bathroom for the wife, but hey it was tiny money. We will leave them behind when we move. Oh and I had to rewire the cable for the 2 channel Bell box since we can’t get cable. And coordinate the repairs on the hot water tank, furnace and septic, but I didn’t have to pay for it.

I did have to buy a lawn tractor, but all in it was less than $3000 with a snow blade and a trailer wheel barrow thingy. But it’s worth something for you kids to be able to fly a kite, launch model rockets, ride electric quads, jump on a trampoline, or fly those infernally short lasting and finicky little electric airplanes around right in the yard.

I call Photoshop on today’s picture. An airborne plane does not stop dead in a tree in one piece. Heck, a car won’t do it at over 100 miles an hour. Unless it got put there by a strong wind or something maybe.

Garth on my post #58 yesterday:

“I hope you did as I suggested, and took your profits. But it sounds like you’d rather write long posts justifying your greed. — Garth”

You know what? I haven’t yet. But that’s because, as you know if you read my post, I only put 10% of my portfolio in gold as “insurance” in the 2004 to 2007 period. It’s over 20% of my portfolio now (actually I think close to 30%, and I haven’t bought anything more in a long time), so I know I should sell it down until I am “cash free” (i.e. it doesn’t owe me anything). But I am rather alarmed by the debt crises in Europe and the headlines have me a bit paralyzed.

As for justifying my greed, well, I think you missed the diagnosis on that one. I agree with you that no one gets rich owning gold, but for different reasons. I think its money. You do not. But I don’t think money can make you rich unless you play the highly leveraged currency game, which I do not, I’ll leave that to George. I am looking to have a dollar today’s purchasing power in 20 years with some potion of the portfolio. That’s all. I also put up these posts to talk my point that your 5-10% gold holding suggested in Money Road does work.

Now, if gold goes to zero then it will be in an environment where the other parts of the GarthPlan ™ will do well and I will weep only that I didn’t sell down to “cash free”. So I think you are being unduly harsh with the greed thing. I was only bragging.

But you are right in that I do need to form a plan back to 10%, and maybe $4000 is thinking I am a little too smart. I should layer out.

Anyway, as always thanks for this blog, I do love it, and I do respect your opinion even when I vary a little bit like holding my 5-10% gold position too long. I agree with your principle.

#23 Murder of Crow$ on 09.25.11 at 10:41 pm

Funny what we find ‘value’ in………….gold bars locked away in vaults forever………….collecting dust……………collecting dust……………………………….

Once upon a time, there were two piles. One pile consisted of thousands of tons of cow manure. The other pile consisted of thousands of tons of pure gold dust.

Two farmers came along. One farmer was named Aesop. The other farmer was named Grimm.

Aesop took the whole pile of cow manure and spread it on his fields as fertilizer, seeded his crops, and waited for harvest time. Grimm took the whole pile of gold dust because it looked pretty and didn’t smell bad. He spread the gold dust on his fields, seeded his crops, and waited, dreaming each night of the tall, waving, golden wheat fields that would welcome him come harvest time.

When harvest time came in the Fall, Aesop’s crops had grown tall, thick, lush, and healthy. This bountiful harvest came much to the delight of hundreds of people, who were then well fed and happy during the Winter.

Farmer Grimm also had crops in the Fall, but his crops had grown short, scant, and sickly looking, worse than Charlie Brown’s Christmas tree. Truth be known, his crops looked uglier than a dog’s arse sewn shut with a logging chain. Not even worth harvesting.

Disappointed and disgusted, Grimm simply plowed his crops under and forgot about them.

Grimm nearly starved to death that Winter, and if it wasn’t for the big government bail-out package that he got, he would have perished.

Moral of the story: Gold ain’t worth shit.

#24 Victor on 09.25.11 at 10:55 pm

@4:30 said “Vancouver (real estate) looks like a very safe place to put money”
lol…Vancouver RE is now a safe haven:-). sounds familiar?

#25 ken s on 09.25.11 at 11:02 pm

Rainy Sunday in La-La: we all know now that the world is ending, “AWKI”: “As we know…..” etc
I definitly will not say ‘well what did you Think collapse would look like’ for the 32 x ‘ , or someone will throw a squishy fall tomato, filled
with rocks. :-)
So, this is it. Checkmate. Cant cook the books,
the piper waits impatiently, the sage eminances
(sounds better in fr.), look much like ‘The Burghers of Calais’ (Rodin, 18c worth a read &
look : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Burghers_of_Calais

So, to not burden you with the burghers of Brussels, Athens etc. I’ll skip it. But if things get really bad I will reference “The raft Medusa”
Gericault 18C…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Raft_of_the_Medusa

Woody Allens latest: “Midnight in Paris” will open
the Cannes bash with (omg) Carla Bruni co-officiating. Nicky (“–bravo le cloun”) Sarcozy never
seems to get to these glitzfests -on the phone with
Angela probably.

Carla will provide adequate diversion from the rather obvious omission of Woody’s Korean
born wife (-have never seen her at Any of Woody’s
affairs (except the first one).

The event is a social climbers joyfest, but Woody still has a long climb back up, and Carla
is hanging on, with any available reinforcement.

BTW: Domenic Straus-Kahn will not be attending.
–The chairs in the kitchen have all been booked.

I havent read the reviews of “Midnight… etc, but I
doubt that it will be a ‘Spoiled brat/youth, –loose your virginity and inheritance’ bash, as in “Whats
Up Pussycat” (?What’s New Pussycat??) We All wanted to be there, at 4am, stripping, on the sweaty semi dark disco floor next to Peter O’toole.
Well Um…. Some of us made it as far as Montreal,
and did the same (4x/wk!) Sobering up at Cafe RoseMarie the next am with ‘Compaignion’ (sounds better in fr.), and camambert croissants.
It was not a FSL field trip, but the ‘cultural education’ was unforgettable.

Also from the past, in competition with the critic’s
exclamations of “Allen’s Best Picture” is “Crimes
and Misdemeanours”, The content of which I
still remember: Allen, at a bar somewhere in NY:
“Well if God is dead, …We will just have to do the
job ourselves…” –the implications stay with you.

Almodovar’s latest: “The Skin I live in” seems as
dark and violent as anything you’ve seen. Like
Allen’s movies, Almodovar’s seem to convey a
veiled commentary on current attitudes and events.

Looking over the keyboard is a wall of glass, with
a view of a pocket greenspace, situated as randomly as a pocket beach and just as enjoyable.
Synthesized Bach plays, in frequencies beyond reality, creating same in enjoyment. The latest
soundcards create the sound control of those
monster consoles we see in recording clips.
Luv my HP. The sun sets, -all the Green turns
Gold. —Consolations of La-La. –but no stainless
or granite… Actual, or metaphorical :-)

Clips: http://www.youtube.com/results?search=Search&resnum=0&oi=spell&search_query=woody+allen+midnight+in+paris&spell=1&suggested_categories=1%2C24%2C25&sa=X

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=almodovar+the+skin+i+live+in+trailer&aq=6&oq=almodovar
Cheers. -KS

#26 Boombust on 09.25.11 at 11:10 pm

“Whalley is the most disgusting place in BC, hands down.”

That may be so for B.C., but…I’d take Whalley any day over MOST of Greater Los Angeles.

#27 Boombust on 09.25.11 at 11:11 pm

“I’m from Ont. and even I know Surrey is the armpit (or worse) of GVA.”

You haven’t grown up here like I have…

Surrey NOW has many nice parts to it. You need to get out more.

#28 stage1dave on 09.25.11 at 11:15 pm

Gee whiz; I hope the Canadian housing market isn’t headed for the same fate as 87julliet…but it probably is…

Not sure if I should expound on this analogy…any landing you can walk away from is a good one? I’ve walked away from all of mine (along with everyone else) but I’m not sure that means I’m a good pilot…maybe I’m just LUCKY! Every time I climb into a bugsmasher, I’m reliant on far too many mechanisms, electronics, & mechanicals (not to mention organization in the form of ATC, Nav, etc) the correct functioning of which are completely beyond my ability to control. I get information, I respond; hopefully in the correct manner. Hopefully, it’s good information…hopefully, everything mechanical & electronic works as it should…

This is starting to remind me of a current homeowner with a nice new mortgage…”so far we’re doin’ OK” which is what many pilots have thought as they went thru 10K ft…then 8…then 7…if you’ve got ALTITUDE when something goes wrong, at least you MAY have some time to puzzle it out…or get the hell out!

New homeowners in this housing market, along with CREA, Banks, Government, & the media are starting to remind me of a sprog pilot who’s jumped into a 747…that was built on friday afternoon…& he’s getting a different story from ATIS, Ground, ATC & then Departure…while the cojo & FE fight over the position of the jump seat.

Airplanes might kill you, but they’re not likely to hurt ya; my dad (who was a retired Lanc & Clunk driver, & earned an A2 Instr rating on Harvards; “…back when Canada had an Airforce” as he used to say) told me once about a routine two-plane takeoff in Portage: the initial jet conversion course was taught there. Once completed, you went on the Advanced Flying School in…BION: Saskatoon! Back when Canada had an Airforce…)

Anyway, in a couple of T-33’s, he & his lead hit the power, took off, cleared the runway button, pulled up the gear, then brought up the flaps; & the lead rolled over on his back & went straight in.

I asked dad; “so what’d y’do?” He thinks for a moment, then says he had to fly around for a bit, get clearance to dump some fuel, then landed & debriefed…typical RCAF, I guess!

Accident investigation team figured out a hydraulic ram had failed in the lead jet, as soon as he selected ‘flaps up’ the LHS failed to retract, acted like an aileron & rolled the old T-Bird right on to it’s back…if he’d had some ALTITUDE he very probably would have figured this out before it killed him. (‘return to previously selected configuration before A/C acted all buggered up’ was the universally accepted action)

From what I’m reading on this blog, some people here have altitude, some (like me) not so much but at least we’re all cognizant of the terrain below, even if we disagree on the hills & valleys.

What I’m really not sure about: how tasteless are the jokes about the looming housing correction going to be, after the fact?

Jet pilots (in the mid 50’s, this was still quite a new thing) developed a macabre sense of humour to deal with these situations…

What was my son doing when he died? “About 200 knots.”
Did he have any last words? “None that we may repeat”

Perhaps the officer’s mess could be a touch cruel in retrospect; but if you’re going to get out of bed & do it all over again tomorrow you’d better find a way to deal with it.

I have a funny feeling even the renters (like me) aren’t going to be able to come up with any good one-liners.

#29 Jon B on 09.25.11 at 11:17 pm

Wanna get rich? Earn it. Too lazy to earn it? Try your LUCK with a balanced portfolio.

#30 Habbit on 09.25.11 at 11:20 pm

Average familly income in Canada is what 70K? With 2 working that’s a bit over 17 bucks each an hour. Lots of people young and old don’t even understand different mortgage options. And we think they are going to make good investment decisions? An Archie Bunker type working on the loading dock? There are millions of em’ Those are the peolpe that need guidance. They are the ones at risk of squirrel stew. Ivestment advisor, WTF is that? Your blog is great Garth and I thank you for it. I understand people have to be responsible for their lot in life but expecting MOST average joe’s to do the best thing is a stretch. It ain’t happening is it? Most working stiffs get their advise education from the nice lady at the bank and with what they have to offer they ain’t workin for ya, ya know. Keep up the good work.

#31 BPOE on 09.25.11 at 11:28 pm

Oly Village filling up nice to see. It will sell like I always said. Real Estate in Vancouver is the cornerstone of true wealth. The other cornerstone? Well let the maestro do the talking – over to you Jim

Our conclusion is: (on gold)

Market situations like this will be found to have held and created bear traps in several instances of similar pattern action over the past 30 years WITHOUT having continued further down to first major support. The current corrective pattern over the past 23 trading days strongly implies that the move below $1690 would continue on down to the core at $1665 at minimum as first bottom, and in the extreme to $1615, but not below $1584. This will happen prior to exhaustion and a return to the full bull trend.

So far the remaining successive levels of $2450/$2510; $2850/$2900, and $3280/$3330 are not affected.

#32 AACI Home-Dog on 09.25.11 at 11:30 pm

#14…Amarillo (said)
I hear ya. In other words, a defined-benefit-plan is worth … what exactly? Let’s see, a DBP that pays $25,000 a year is worth a lump-sum of … $833,333? IE, $25k/3%=$25 large. Is 3% a reasonable discount rate?

I think you meant $75 large ?

#33 Min in Mission on 09.25.11 at 11:31 pm

Excellent post today. Definitely nothing to argue about there. Everything well laid out, sensible writing, easy enough to “pretend” that I could understand it.

Just visited my Dad today. A WW II vet., lived through the Depression, actually “rode the rails” across Canada when he was younger, and, has been retired for 6 years longer than he worked. Plus both of them, Mom and Dad, are still living independently.

Doubt that will happen to me. I feel so “screwed”

#34 BPOE on 09.25.11 at 11:32 pm

American how long can you toot your own horn and be so damn wrong all the time. Don’t you get it. Vancouver is the real deal and you will never stop the tsunami of investors wanting to jump aboard. We’re not like Seattle we have a limited land mass. Why go to Peru when you can get a world class multi cultural experience a 2 hour drive North. Makes no sense. World Class uber multi cultural City close by and you go to Peru. One just has to shake their head
7 The American on 09.25.11 at 9:37 pm
Damn. Canadians must be terribly bored. The real estate game is over, very old news, and ending the same in all markets globally

#35 fiendish Thingy on 09.25.11 at 11:32 pm

I’ve only spent 24 hrs. in Surrey, and I can tell you it has earned it’s reputation as “The Armpit of BC”.

Anyone want to venture a guess on what the Loonie will do this week? Up or down?

#36 mike on 09.25.11 at 11:34 pm

I think this is a good post. People are arrogant, the more you interact with them the more you realize it. My fear is the Garth is being too rosey and 2011-2012 makes 2007-2008 look like good times. My fear is that Europe is more of a house of cards than even these bankers are letting on and pumping billions into this debt crisis will just lower their credit ratings and the ball will roll down the hill picking up speed with Canada and our disgusting amount of personal debt just another victim.

I agree the balance portfolio is the answer, but is this time better to be even more liquid than Garth is preaching. It might be the great comeback of cash.

#37 crazed and a little confused on 09.25.11 at 11:40 pm

this is for the bulls..it doesn’t matter to me any more I was priced out by 2008

http://money.ca.msn.com/banking/homebuyersguide/gallery/worst-homebuying-mistakes

#38 nonplused on 09.25.11 at 11:41 pm

Garth on #92 Taxhaven yesterday

Gold is a high-risk, speculative asset which is no more money than is a barrel of oil. If you bought low, you are a fool not to take profits. — Garth

Right and wrong. Gold is a speculative asset for sure. Everything is. But gold cannot go for long below the cost of production, because it will soon be all changed into trinkets girls wear on their belly buttons and ears and necks. So the low for gold is in the $600 range right now, after that there is no more.

Paper dollars, on the other hand, are a derivative and worth no more than the solvency of the issuer. I know you won’t ever get this, so forgive me for belabouring the point. (Boomeritis affects all boomers, not just the other boomers, even if you have just a mild case.)

These days I would take a barrel of oil, or more specifically diesel, over $100 dollars any day. But I can’t store oil or even diesel in good quantities. I can store gold. And although it’s hard to find a dealer, so it’s not as liquid as cash, there are dealers.

Garth on 155 Andrew from yesterday

I did not say PMs would collapse. But this is a speculative, risk-laden investment. An appropriate holding would be 5% of a portfolio. – Garth

Yep. He’s right. Although I think 10% is better but we are talking angles on a pinhead. Central banks can cause deflation when ever they want, by simply printing less currency than the economy requires. Not too worried about it though, I think they will print more.

They think printing more money is the same as adding “capital”, but this isn’t so. “Capital” is land, equipment, technology, and animals. Printing more money simply redefines who has the claim on the capital, and is quickly met by inflation. The “economy” is always and everywhere an exchange of goods and labour for the same. Printing money only adjusts prices, and gives the printer some new purchasing power. This is why no one should be able to print money that isn’t backed by something, I don’t care if it’s a set number of bags of Doritos’s, but it has to be backed and the issuer has to be solvent.

#39 604x on 09.25.11 at 11:42 pm

The party appears over in Richmond, BC. 15 months’ of inventory outstanding. Average prices up but mainly due to a single large sale. Median prices down month-over-month.

http://www.yattermatters.com/2011/09/richmonds-real-estate-veggies/#more-26060

#40 Joe on 09.25.11 at 11:51 pm

I lived near those towers in Whalley. We moved after people were firing shots off for fun along the greenbelt under the hydro wires, someone shot out a couple of windows in our building, and a girl got deliberately run down. There are convenient things about living in that area, like you don’t have to worry about fixing your hair or putting on clean clothes to go out and it is really close to the SkyTrain.

If you missed your chance to buy into Park Place there’s always “Sky” across the road that’s supposed to be finished in 2010 — oh, wait, we’re in 2011 and they haven’t broken ground yet. Well, I’m sure they’ll get right on that, and while they’re at it I imagine they’ll get around to filling in the giant crater behind Park Place with something someday, another building maybe. Funny they didn’t show that view on the news…

#41 gadzooks on 09.25.11 at 11:55 pm

Surrey isn’t just a shithole to invest in , it’s a place to flush your kids down the toilet as well. Less than 2% ( it’sd 1.7% in fact) of graduates in the Slurrey secondary school system graduate with university entrance marks. Can you say “Do want fries with your crack?’ Theres a reason the locals call it ‘Sewery’.

The current credit bomb in Europe is ‘profoundly positive for precious metals’.

http://dollarcollapse.com/precious-metals/precious-metals-just-a-squiggle/

#42 Hashnugs Inthebong on 09.26.11 at 12:02 am

As Whalley rebuilds itself, I hope the peeler bar The Byrd pub remains there. The feminists have already had Metro Vancouvers strip bars closed down, there are only a few left, don’t the feminists care about the jobs created for the strippers?

#43 mofo on 09.26.11 at 12:26 am

Great post. Diversify. That doesn’t just mean pick a bunch of assets with the same beta exposure and hope for the best.

Gov’t bonds, investment grade corps, high yield corps, equities, cash, gold and commodities…(am I missing anything) should all have a part.

And for those wondering, here’s how gold performs in a financial crash:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/295567-how-gold-performs-during-a-financial-crash

#44 PatienceIsAVirtue on 09.26.11 at 12:32 am

Here’s another blog with great photos for housing bears…
http://portlandhousing.blogspot.com/

And a little artistic license found at the above site.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bNmcf4Y3lGM

PIAV

#45 timo on 09.26.11 at 12:33 am

http://www.thetechherald.com/article.php/201139/7649/Occupy-Wall-Street-protest-turns-chaotic-and-violent-Roundup?page=2

Caught in the fenced in cage, the women were reacting to the arrest of a protester a few feet from them when the incident took place. Patrick Bruner, a spokesman for the protest itself, called the actions and tactics used by the police “exceedingly violent”, noting that the protesters sought to remain peaceful.

Interesting video in NY on the wall street protest. A side show for now but could it become a powder keg?

#46 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.26.11 at 12:34 am


“Chuck fears risk. Oh, the humanity. Such a human thing to say.” — Hmmm. Suggest listening to Buffett’s advice, buy low (when the stock market has been trounced shortly), and sell high (but not too high — leave some for the rest of us). That’s how to invest.

“Sadly, our brain tells us otherwise.” — Although we were given something upstairs to help us function, no one said we had to use these tools and, evidently, most don’t which is why jangleballs are still buying RE. Who is the greater fool?
*
#226 TurnerNation on 09.25.11 at 8:13 pm — “This time the genocide is final. It’s in the plan.”

G’day, TurnerNation. At least I got part of it right with depop. Duzzent surprise me about Clinton. All these western politicos are nothing more than a bunch of lying yahoos, but maybe this is what you mean. Cheers!

BTW, The Perfect Man, Perfect Woman and Santa Claus Click Continue in the lower right corner.
*
UK If the US Fed is coming up with a plan to bail out the Eurozone, how come the UK’s been given the same bill? Something doesn’t smell right here, but maybe dumping the Euro is the best option, and returning to their original currencies is the best answer; Greek Tragedy Middle class being wiped out; China – Japan he EU must fix their own mess and Germany Neither will China and Japan; CME Rates Up for gold and silver.

Link in Do I hear restore Glass-Steagall? Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics.

This is turning into an extremely interesting time, esp. when viewing it from Battlestar Galatica, and Rather large sun spot; More Solar Flare stuff, Is it possible that this caused the blackout in Chile? Six CME’s in one day may also be part of the uprising; Gas Prices headed south; Recognition of Palestine first (they have been waiting long enough); Facebook Timeless, at least for now.

September 27 Isn’t this the same day as Nibiru makes its entrance (or something like that?) and Two suns. Links in; The Harvest Pakistan – US relations; NAU – SPP From a US General; Five Diseases Brits (and most of us) ick the bucket from.

#47 Tim on 09.26.11 at 12:46 am

Police Crackdown on Occupy Wall St Protest and Arrest 80 Protesters
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/sep/25/occupywallstreet-occupy-wall-street-protests?source=patrick.net

#48 Drew on 09.26.11 at 12:48 am

Did you hear him say the Olympic village is “60% sold-out”! Kinda like being “sorta pregnant”. Unreal.

#49 Mr Buyer on 09.26.11 at 1:03 am

I get the whole knee jerk thing and rationalizations about a broke system but I also know that history has revealed rampant market manipulation and insider trading (circa 1920s). To not at least suspect the possibility of insider trading and market manipulation takes more than a little bit of denial on my part. Now there is always the possibility that I am not quite all there but that is what I am left with at the end of the day. The notion of risk management is quite attractive at first blush but there are no do overs. Yes this notion has been addressed in our culture with the riches to rags to riches stories and fortune favors the bold sayings but barring inventing a new cancer therapy or something useful, I strongly suspect that real wealth of any size requires a cautious multi-generational strategy with more than a huge amount of saving (as well as a little shooting of fish in a barrel as they present themselves, such as the early stages of this housing bubble). The markets are treacherous at best and maybe even a confidence trick. I am not saying that I will not jump in, I just hesitate to gamble in any venue…

#50 not 1st on 09.26.11 at 1:23 am

Garth, did you know you were appearing with 2 very well known doomers on that podcast. Are you finally seeing the bigger economic problems out there like they are?

No, they are enlightened by appearing with me. — Garth

#51 Kilby on 09.26.11 at 1:54 am

Olympic Village 60% sold. Bubble Boy is right, they were going on about this 6 months ago. Talk to any technician who has done repairs to these buildings and you would never go near them. Condensation from unwrapped pipes has been mentioned several times. These things are going to force strata councils in the future to have to levy huge rates on owners to keep these shoddy buildings together. The 86 unit building that we lease in North Vancouver near the water has been open since April 2010 and is about 40% occupied, twin tower next door has been for sale for at least 9 months and is approximately 20% occupied and the developer is planning two more buildings right next door? Seem awfully confident about the future of real estate here or are just not paying attention to what is happening to the economy.

#52 Jane24 on 09.26.11 at 2:24 am

As a Canadian living in England with many many relatives and friends in Canada I can tell you that it is truly different there, all my relatives say so. Plus Garth and myself are very very wrong when we say ‘it ain’t so’.

So like very readers of this blog I have done all that i can. For people to get into bidding wars in TO and run their HELOCs up in this marker is insane and ssadly they deserve all that they get.

#53 European on 09.26.11 at 2:31 am

Canada is a great nation which I now call home but with the current housing bubble and war on the prudent and savers these are 2 of the ways that I would characterize Canada to people abroad:

Canada the land of opportunity to be in debt

(there is no longer the opportunity to work hard, get ahead of the herd, buy a house and live happily ever after. Now a days its more like work steady, go to the bank and see how much they approve you for, go to the realtor she/he will ask you how much you can possibly afford, stretch yourself to the limits like the herd and buy a house which has a price that is dictated by the herd, then be in debt for 25 years; OR the alternative wait 6 years, save enough and then spend all your savings on a property), so in other words Canada is now the land of the opportunity to be in debt OR spend all your money on a house

&

Canada the land of opportunity to be in debt

(again with the current war on the prudent and savers this first point cannot be stressed enough. The people in charge have created this environment in Canada, in which we no longer reward saving and hard work; we reward borrowing, speculators, and basically allow everyone to have a house before they actually pay for it. Everyone here now has the opportunity to go to the bank and get a large mortgage, and if you work hard you will get an opportunity to get even a bigger mortgage.), we now no longer have the opportunity to pay for a house what its actually worth, if we want to own a house we have to conform with the system, and the current system that has been created basically consists of money injected by the banks and taking large loans to pay for things.

I’m not gonna be part of this system!!

Throw it to the ground!!!

http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/digital-short-on-the-ground/1163268/

#54 new Era on 09.26.11 at 2:46 am

A buddy of mine from work was bugging me that gold went down this week.

I showed him some of my purchase forms from 2000 to 2003 and told him when gold reaches 280 then you can tell me gold is down.

Then I ask him how his banks stocks he has recently bought was doing….. Case Closed…

Bank stocks pay dividends. Gold costs money to store. — Garth

#55 Suede on 09.26.11 at 3:00 am

What’s Globals angle (other than the obvious) for continually pumping non-stop positive news on real estate in the lower mainland?

Their parent company is Shaw and quickly searching the directors, none has any clear involvement in developers in BC. Maybe some ties to Concord Pacific, as most of their properties are always featured on Global.

Funny they never mention any of the “New Price” and “Reduced” tags i see everywhere on residential houses in Burnaby and East Vancouver the last couple weeks.

#56 bill c on 09.26.11 at 4:03 am

Buying real estate in Vancouver is like getting a hooker for the night.
Said the Hooker to the Real Estate Investor in B.C.
“You will have to pay lots to get in,
But you will have to pay more to get
out of it too.”

#57 Smoking Man on 09.26.11 at 5:48 am

Garth
main stream media are coming to this site and steeling content and ideas from your best blogers.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/education/universitynews/university-education-no-guarantee-of-earnings-success/article2179803/

#58 Aussie Roy on 09.26.11 at 6:07 am

Aussie Update

Landlords always have the upper hand, until they dont.

The rental vacancy rate has shot up from 1.41 percent in the March quarter to 3.15 percent in the June quarter, with the Northern Suburbs recording a 10 percent vacancy rate.

But, but, but, we have a shortage…..

http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/blog/?p=1752

INTERNATIONAL investors are increasingly wary of Australian property amid global economic uncertainty, growing stock levels and double-digit house price falls, particularly in lifestyle areas.
http://www.news.com.au/money/property/foreigners-wary-on-property/story-e6frfmd0-1226146514315#ixzz1Z3FstODS

SYDNEY–National Australia Bank Ltd., one of the country’s biggest lenders, is planning to test the appetite of U.S.-based investors through an offer of residential mortgage-backed securities that includes a U.S. dollar tranche, the first such issue by the bank since 2006.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/09/20/will-u-s-investors-buy-australias-mortgage-story/?mod=WSJBlog READ COMMENTS

The most privileged, most profligate generation in human history – my generation, the baby boomers (most often defined as those born 1946 to 1964) – drove the world for the past decade to this moment of reckoning, running up a gigantic bill that has now come due.

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/greed-of-boomers-led-us-to-a-total-bust-20110925-1krki.html#ixzz1Z3GTN84O

#59 timo on 09.26.11 at 6:30 am

http://theconversation.edu.au/are-economists-ignoring-australias-property-bubble-3268/

A decade of hearing the drumbeat that prices always rise and never fall has been replaced with the more subdued claims of a return to affordability as housing prices decline slightly.

By definition, an asset bubble requires the vast majority of the public and economists to participate in the mass delusion that prices will endlessly rise

#60 Keeping the Faith on 09.26.11 at 6:38 am

For those from Toronto not familiar with Vancouver and the lower mainland: Walley in Surrey = Jane and Finch.

Should call the video “Pumpers Gone Wild”

#61 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.26.11 at 7:01 am

@ #1 fancy_pants

speaking of how to invest (or not), asian markets already down in early Monday trading. Fear takes on many faces… or are the tanking markets a justified correction? [insert opinion here]

ok – yes, Asian markets are down, but they are just catching up to some of the action from last week. European markets are all up, and U.S. futures are up as well.

Gold/Silver took another beating, and the USD is still rising, so apparently the doomsdayers are going to be waiting a while longer.

#62 neo on 09.26.11 at 7:14 am

Decline figures for equity and PM markets are from recent highs. — Garth

Ok. But your thesis is on “Investing” not “trading”. A trader pays attention to recent short term highs. An investor looks at trends over time. Chuck specifically made reference to year to date returns so he is obviously an investor not a day trader and so are you. That’s all I am saying.

By the way, for those wondering why Gold suddenly plunged this morning after rising almost 2% overnight the Shanghai metals exchange just hiked Gold and Silver margins AGAIN by 20%. As I said in a previous post, the more they do this, the more we will have the only true price discovery for an asset class that isn’t distorted by leveraged speculators. This price suppression will ultimately backfire when margins are so high they drive out speculators and governments around the globe commence massive fiat printing again. At that point Gold won’t be held back from it’s climb.

#63 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.26.11 at 7:18 am

Just a guess, but I’m thinking JPMorgan is running on fumes at this point:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-news/global-exchange/financial-times/jpmorgan-boss-rips-mark-carney-over-financial-regulation/article2179981/

Why else would their CEO need to be dragged kicking and screaming into these “lightweight” Basel III rules? Is this going to become like Climate Change, where the entire argument is thrown away because 1 person with vested interests disputes it?

Maybe Mark Carney should direct the Bank of Canada buy a bunch of Silver, and see if JPMorgan’s ridiculous gamble blows up in Mr. Dimon’s face.

#64 House on 09.26.11 at 7:21 am

Buy and Hold. So human!

Not for me. — Garth

#65 neo on 09.26.11 at 7:23 am

#19T.O. Bubble Boy

1.) Only Japan markets was closed Friday not China so Asia isn’t catching up to anything, they are just continuing their fall. Same with Australia, Taiwan and India.

2.) Gold/Silver plunge is being manipulated by margin calls (look above)

3.) U.S. dollar was weakening until margin hikes on gold/Silver late in Asia trading but now have reversed and are strengthening which is causing U.S. futures to reverse and strengthen as well.

4.) Nothing fundamentally has changed in the global outlook T.O. Just more window dressing.

#66 Waiting for the Sun on 09.26.11 at 7:34 am

>>> This is the scenario I painted for you a year ago – asset deflation amid price inflation.

But this hasn’t happened over the last year. Since you made the prediction 1-year ago, let’s look at 1-year results.

“Inflation in prices” – Yes, there was mild price inflation, 3% CPI.

“Deflation in assets” – ummm… no. CDN House prices up 5% (Teranet), GLD up 30%, Stocks up 2% over last 1-year.

The correct prediction for the full year would have been inflation in both prices and assets.

The recent (1-month) market behaviour is showing deflation in everything; both prices (oil, copper) and assets, but nothing is showing the inflation/deflation pattern that you suggested 1-year ago.

#67 fancy_pants on 09.26.11 at 7:35 am

<p#7 The American on 09.25.11 at 9:37 pm
Damn. Canadians must be terribly bored…Meanwhile, I am enjoying my vacation in Peru.

…and I didn’t realize how rich Americans where since they slid into the RE sinkhole some 5 years ago ~ being able to afford fancy vacations and such.

See how silly sterotyping is. If you have time for this blog while on vacation, I also suspect that is pretty boring as well. eh?

now excuse me, I have to go vacuum the igloo and catch dinner.

#68 bigrider on 09.26.11 at 7:53 am

Listened to your podcast Garth. Did you and Harry D go for coffee afterwards ? You guys friends now?

#69 Moneta on 09.26.11 at 7:56 am

I am more convinced by the day that our leaders, stuck on austerity mode, will not boost the economy until they pass their cuts.

If they prop up the markets, they won’t be able to convince the population that entitlements need to be cut. They will let the markets droop and the economy flail and finally make the desired cuts to public pensions and other benefits.

Read this and you know what is coming:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/taking-stock/bernankes-twist-turns-the-screws-on-already-battered-us-pension-funds/article2179488/

They know that low rates are squeezing pensions. Obviously, it’s the least of their concerns.

Companies have been switching from DB to DC for new employees but short term it makes no difference. The problem is the boomers which they have not yet cut. If they want to save money they’ll need to cut the benefits.

And if they don’t cut, we’ll need huge inflation to devalue the purchasing power of these pension dollars even those based on COLA. How do you do this? You create inflation that does not get measured in the pension inflation adjustment.

I am amazed by the level of complacency coming from public servants as they have not even started to question the safety of their pensions while they load up on condos and luxury homes.

#70 bigrider on 09.26.11 at 8:04 am

Honest question for anyone here. Is minus 12 % for a balanced portfolio 70/30 equity/fixed income split for a younger ,more agressive investor to much to be down on a year like this.

Brother in law, 30 yrs old, has this mix.

Me 40 something, 60/40 down 6

#71 Bob Copeland on 09.26.11 at 8:32 am

Everything dropped in ’08. Everything. Except gold. It made 8%. Looks like this year will be the same way. Who knows. But gold was $1322.00 January 1st. As the FED prints more money gold will go up. I just don’t understand why your so against it. I want to! I closed my IRA and 401K, took the tax hit and bought gold for $469.00 about 6 years ago. How can I feel foolish?

Try again. Gold fell during the financial crisis. — Garth

#72 Macrath on 09.26.11 at 8:33 am

Mark Carney, silver is on sale 28.70. Load up the Bank vaults. I`m ready to pick up a few more rounds.

Garth, what`s the difference between re-balancing and timing? Right now I`m heavy on cash waiting for some bargains. Seems to me to be the right approach rather than buying in all the way to the bottom. I know they are hard to call but the trend is down for now.

You are waiting for bargains? — Garth

#73 Steven Rowlandson on 09.26.11 at 8:38 am

Since markets are manipulated by financial and governmental institutions there is no need to sell if your position is paid for, real and under your control.
Don’t be paniced out of a good position by people who don’t have the goods who won’t compensate you for losses they induce by their actions in the market.
Like J.P.Morgan said,” Gold and silver is money! Everything else is just credit.” The same is still true today.

#74 Stevenson on 09.26.11 at 9:03 am

Stocks bouncing back up today. Market it is only down only a LITTLE bit for the year regardless of all the volatility this year. That’s not too bad.

#75 Amarillo on 09.26.11 at 9:30 am

Yo! #32 Home-dog!
Er, … 3% of $75,000=$2,250/yr. You need $833,333 in the bank at 3% to earn $25,000 per year. A lot of people don’t understand how much principal you need to earn a measley $25,000 a year. How about 4%? $25,000/4%=$625,000 you need. They should be teaching this in junior high.

#76 Happy Renting on 09.26.11 at 9:38 am

Hey Garth,

Love the blog…

You mention in the podcast the VIX as an important indicator to track (i notice it has a long way to go if it is to return to late 2008 levels).

Do you have any other recommendations for key economic indicators to watch? Where do you get most of your information and statistics from?

I think it would be useful to your blog followers to gain a better understanding of what information is used to come to the conclusions you do and assist them in forming their own conclusions. Maybe you could do a full post on this?

Teach us to be less like sheep.

You are now a ram. — Garth

#77 bigrider on 09.26.11 at 9:53 am

100 trillion dollars in retirement and medicare benefit entitlements for American baby boomers in the next 10 to 15 years with no ability to pay for them.

Does anyone really think gold and silver are done?

#78 Moneta on 09.26.11 at 10:30 am

I think it would be useful to your blog followers to gain a better understanding of what information is used to come to the conclusions you do and assist them in forming their own conclusions. Maybe you could do a full post on this?
——–
The irony.

People want free markets. Capitalism. They want government out of their lives. Austerity.

If they get what they want, this means responsibility for their own pensions. However, follwong markets and managing porfolios is more than a full time job. If you already have a full time jobs and it’s not related to finance, good luck. You’ll have to trust a finance expert.

#79 Andrey on 09.26.11 at 10:35 am

Typo?

It’s not 2008 (no big corporate bloodletting, no credit freeze, no bank failures) but it’ll sure fEEl the same (markets wobble, housing suffers, economy shrinks).

#80 Canuck Abroad on 09.26.11 at 10:38 am

Cold, hard truth on the BBC. Compare this with Global TV.

http://maxkeiser.com/2011/09/26/governments-dont-rule-the-world-goldman-sachs-rules-the-world/#comments

#81 Tony on 09.26.11 at 10:38 am

#78 bigrider on 09.26.11 at 9:53 am

If i’m reading it correctly gold silver and all the commodities except maybe natural gas are moving into a bear market. The street is pricing in a recession. It looks like gold and silver will react to deflation not hyperinflation someone dreamt up about a year ago. The housing figures this morning in America aren’t going to help commodities.

#82 disciple on 09.26.11 at 11:02 am

#70 Moneta….very astute observation. The agenda de jour is austerity. Completely fake and unnecessary, but that is not the point. Your mind-controllers want you to think that cuts are necessary and they want you on your knees begging for some more porridge. As you listen to the upcoming drivel in the media telling you how spoiled you are, please remember to…get off your knees! Take what is yours. It is your birthright. You are Jacob, they are Esau. Kick the financial parasite class out. Know your true enemy, they sure as hell know all about you. There is plenty of money to go around. Always remember.

#83 Brad Mitchell in Calgary on 09.26.11 at 11:02 am

I have to give credit where credit is due. Mr. Turner definitely understands how human psychology is probably the biggest obstacle for people to overcome if they want to make money investing. That goes for all of us, myself included.

#84 Tony Right on 09.26.11 at 11:02 am

That video was priceless! Michael Lansky’s face says it all when he stumbles saying, “This is a neighbourhood that’s…almost there.” Even better is when Bob Rennie pipes in and says, ” [Vancouver] is an anomaly on the planet.” I feel like I’m watching that show about mediums; all smoke and mirrors. As you say Garth, this cannot end well.

#85 Waterloo Resident on 09.26.11 at 11:06 am

#7 – The American:

Yes, you are correct, we are INSANE.

#86 disciple on 09.26.11 at 11:08 am

Three words: Van Allen Belts.

Man did not land on the moon. Get this straight in your heads. Stanley Kubrick, who directed the whole 40 billion dollar opera, died trying desperately to tell us.

But you say, “disciple, what does this have to do with my daily life? Will knowing this help to put bread on my table and bacon in my belly?”

disciple says: “Yes! By understanding this penultimate deception, you will finally realize how isolated you are from reality, and perhaps start reconnecting with it”

#87 Bob Copeland on 09.26.11 at 11:08 am

Please understand I agree with you on everything you say about Real estate. I’m living proof of what can happen. (Lost my butt on a McMansion). I was wrong about the 8% in 2008. It was only 3.4%. Here’s the last few years:

http://www.coinnews.net/2011/01/02/gold-prices-mark-10th-annual-gain-silver-soars-83-7-palladium-leads-in-2010/

Again, were at the 20% plus for the last 12 months today after the drop.

#88 Waterloo Resident on 09.26.11 at 11:20 am

Is ANYONE in BC’s lower coast-land areas even the least bit worried about the MASSIVE Earthquake that is about to hit the area soon?

#89 disciple on 09.26.11 at 11:24 am

You’re very lucky, I am feeling generous this morning, so you’re all going to get a free education today.

John Dee, aka 007 (the original), astrologer to the Queen, got in contact with macrobes (offworld entities). The conversation with these entities spawned The Renaissance in Europe as John Dee and his associates leveraged (and borrowed from Islam) the idea of universities to record and analyze all of this new information being received by the entities. In return, the macrobes asked for blood, war, and mayhem, which they feed upon in some fashion.

Undergrads were used as slave labourers to copy, record, and archive as much as they could which touched upon the powers of silicon, atom-splitting, and EM radiation, concepts obviously unknown to minds in the Dark Ages. This information would then be the subject matter of countless “geniuses” in subsequent decades, which today would be regarded as “Fathers” of this or that in their field. But the truth is that they were nothing more than rich kids who were fed free information, secret and known only among the secret societies, to study, reflect upon, and ultimately to solve in their own time. Are you beginning to understand now, the true history of modern science? I hope so, disciple has done the homework for you…

You must understand this, if anything: Your real rulers are trying to escape this planet, but the moon (an artificial satellite) is somehow stopping them, in conjunction with the Van Allen Belts. In 1962, Project Starship Prime, in which the US military detonated a nuclear bomb within the Van Allen Belts, was an attempt to punch a hole. It failed.

#90 Freedom 85 on 09.26.11 at 12:01 pm

A piece of truth makes it on to the mainstream only once in a very blue moon. Listen to this before it is removed……

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3ddIJajQ0w

It’s pure conjecture. — Garth

#91 Freedom 85 on 09.26.11 at 12:05 pm

Sorry #81,

I didn’t realize you already posted the video earlier.

#92 DaBull on 09.26.11 at 12:06 pm

#89 Waterloo Resident on 09.26.11 at 11:20 am

Is ANYONE in BC’s lower coast-land areas even the least bit worried about the MASSIVE Earthquake that is about to hit the area soon?

Garth, Look at that…. you now have “our Maker” posting on your blog!!!. WOW!!!.

#93 Mister Obvious on 09.26.11 at 12:08 pm

#89 Waterloo Resident

Is ANYONE in BC’s lower coast-land areas even the least bit worried about the MASSIVE Earthquake that is about to hit the area soon?

——————————–

If you could give us the time and date we sure would appreciate it.

#94 I'm stupid on 09.26.11 at 12:15 pm

The year was 1997, someone gave me the investment opportunity of a life time. He said buy stocks in an ipo coming out this week it’s called China.com. He said it was going to go threw the roof. I was 17 and asked a stupid question. Why will it go up and how much money is the company making. I got an intelligent answer, it just will because the future of the Internet will transform society and china has a billion people.

When it came out it went to 200-250 a share then it flopped. I only tracked stocks for fun as I had no money.

The point of the story is that a stupid kid asked a simple question the could avoid huge losses. Why did that person see the samething?
The answer is simple, I was looking in from an outside position.

Here it is again. Take a step back and look at the current financial/housing/commodity markets and just use logic, basic common sense. I bet you will see things differently.

#95 Yong Old Fart on 09.26.11 at 12:16 pm

#89 Waterloo Resident on 09.26.11 at 11:20 am
Is ANYONE in BC’s lower coast-land areas even the least bit worried about the MASSIVE Earthquake that is about to hit the area soon?

=====================================

No.

#96 Macrath on 09.26.11 at 12:31 pm

You are waiting for bargains? — Garth
—————————————————

Yes, in particular CDZ (CLAYMORE SP TSX CDN DIVIDEND ETF) and some emerging market ETF, as you had suggested. I`ve been waiting for the Vanguard Canadian ETF. You seem to be suggesting that the bargains are already here ? Averaging in worked well after 2008 , but I have a nagging hunch that we are a long way from the bottom. Should we be buying anything when the VIX looks like this ?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX+Interactive#symbol=^VIX;range=1y

#97 Macrath on 09.26.11 at 12:45 pm

I cannot link directly to the VIX 1 year chart but it looks ominous. Is that not one of those double tops !

The VIX is an index of fear, not asset values. — Garth

#98 Observer on 09.26.11 at 12:45 pm

Surrey is a hole , the worst part being where this condo is – only nice part is the very south end. Drove down S.W. Marine Drive yesterday – 15 for sale signs from Granville to Dunbar, 1 sold sign. On way back drove down Granville – 7 for sale signs in a row – same realtor. Not sure what it all means.

#99 Randis on 09.26.11 at 12:47 pm

Balanced portfolios I created for clients lost 3-4% during this time and they are happy, and they should be.

Chuck is just plain stupid because he complains about some macro thing that none of us can control. Next time he will complain how he never hit the lottery jackpot ..

#100 AM on 09.26.11 at 12:49 pm

#89 Waterloo Resident on 09.26.11 at 11:20 am
Is ANYONE in BC’s lower coast-land areas even the least bit worried about the MASSIVE Earthquake that is about to hit the area soon?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Denial is a river in Egypt……

When you believe RE only goes up in BC, why would you think there is any chance of an earthquake in BC.

#101 Junius on 09.26.11 at 12:50 pm

#64 T.O. Bubble Boy,

Good post. If Jamie Dimon is ripping on Carney then he must be doing something right. Dimon is one of the world’s biggest criminals and a poster child of why chartered and insured banks need to be ring fenced from the rest of the economy. Whatever Dimon says you can pretty much be assured that we have to do the opposite.

#102 Marnic on 09.26.11 at 1:05 pm

100% correct, Garth. Gold did drop during the 08 crisis…but look what it’s done during the “recovery.” Central banks will sooner or later once again sing the same old hymns from the same old book, and print a load more “stimulus” money. More currency debasement…it’s all they know how to do. Hey, they don’t call them Precious Metals for nothing.

Currency (at least the US$) is not debasing. It’s the go-to asset for worried investors. You picked the wrong horse. — Garth

#103 TaxHaven on 09.26.11 at 1:07 pm

Gee…! In the Concord-Pacific-Global world everyone just “retails”, shops, enjoys the bowling alleys and eats out all the time! New stores are opening! New malls! “British Columbia is an attractive retail destination!”

Wonder where the jobs, the wealth, the production will come from…

I can’t see ANYTHING ahead but slow collapse. The dollar will buy less and less in actual STUFF. Sure, it’ll be there, but your job won’t – and the selection of goods will be rather restricted. This spells stagflation, or INFLATION to me…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bbc-speechless-trader-tells-truth-collapse-comingand-goldman-rules-world

BTW, the S&P is about the same now as it was ten years ago. Ditto the Dow. Bonds yield peanuts and are bubbly pieces of paper. But my 180+ ounces has returned (in paper dollars) arond 100% in four years.

Just saying: Chuck shouldn’t measure his returns dy by day, or even year by year…take the LONG view.

#104 Canuck Abroad on 09.26.11 at 1:18 pm

#89 Waterloo Resident

Is ANYONE in BC’s lower coast-land areas even the least bit worried about the MASSIVE Earthquake that is about to hit the area soon?

————————–

Not to mention all the radiation that is STILL drifting over from Fukushima.

#105 disciple on 09.26.11 at 1:21 pm

I had a client tell me last week, of a couple in Rosedale with 3 mortgages on the same property. The couple’s daughter is expecting to inherit the house with all of its prestige and kept-up-appearance in that enclave of Toronto, but the daughter’s husband got a freak peak into the couple’s finances out of pure accident, and is now afraid to let his wife know the truth.

I wonder how many more of you there are out there with similar secrets? Binged on credit, keeping up appearances?

#106 disciple on 09.26.11 at 1:40 pm

Please, I beg you, for the love of God, please, eliminate any thought of injecting your young women (and now men) with the poisonous Gardasil vaccine. If you have any doubts that there is a link between this Big Pharma bio-weapon and serious adverse reactions (including death), just Youtube for personal testimonies.

Save the children. Right here at home. Your enemy is going after them big-time. They are now saying that 14-year old girls can give their own consent at school. Is that not insane? Enormous deception. It’s unspeakably evil.

Dude. This is not a Gardasil blog. Big surprise, I know. — Garth

#107 spaceman on 09.26.11 at 1:48 pm

Yes everyone is running to Vancouver… Like a bunch of lemmings… good luck. I pity the fools that have bought into this mantra, in the last year. Risk is high.

Olmpic Village had to slash its prices up to 40%, that isn’t even mentioned.

#108 disciple on 09.26.11 at 2:05 pm

I didn’t think Utopia was serious about leaving. If you can hear this, Come back! I’m sure Garth could use the increased kilobyte traffic. This site is worth a bit of money now, according to hypestat. (I wasn’t snooping, it’s just that I happened to search for greaterfool on Bing and it actually didn’t return your actual page – but I think it does now). I’ve been inspired to start my own blog, thanks G-man. Michelle et al, will be happy I’m sure.

#109 Marnic on 09.26.11 at 2:06 pm

Currency (at least the US$) is not debasing. It’s the go-to asset for worried investors. You picked the wrong horse. — Garth

Thanks for pointing out the blindingly obvious re the US dollar, but read the post again, mate.

#110 vyw on 09.26.11 at 2:14 pm

#103
All commodities are falling including gold and silver. Garth and others warned of a bubble a number of times.

Gold and silver should still be bought IMO but only after it over-corrects. There will be upside because interest rates are low and if the BoC/Fed allow inflation.

#111 Victoria Tea Party on 09.26.11 at 2:33 pm

#46 Timo

WALL STREET PROVIDING PROTEST FUEL

I also watched that Wall Street clip; it is concerning because it did not seem justified at all.

A few women were protesting the fall-out, on taxpayers, of the US Empire’s glorious (and predominently busted) banking system, and they got gassed with mace for the privilege.

The organizers of this putative protest are looking for a hook in which to expand their campaign which they were touting as an American version of the “Arab Spring” in MENA. Looks like the hook’s on deck now, eh? NYPD to thank.

With this cruel and heartless episode, of police incompetence, another likely act of incompetence awaits in DC which should make the protestors a little happier.

Congressional leaders face their important Nov. 23rd meeting deadline to settle US budget/debt ceiling issues. If they fail to agree it’ll be cut and hack time followed by various unintended budgetary consequences and further public kick-back.

EURO ZONE BRINGS GOOD NEWS! REALLY?

Meanwhile, yes, the US markets are up today, but only because someone in Europe is promoting the idea of bailing out half of Greece’s unrepayable debt.

That is probably a good idea, in theory, except that it means the euro taxpayers will get hammered forever on the subsequent bank bailouts they’ll be “asked” to pay for!

With that in mind, watch for an important German parliamentary vote on Thursday on whether or not to rubber stamp expansion of a Euro emergency “bailout fund,” cobbled together last July, to assist debt repayments within the European peripheral fun-in-the-sun sovereign entities who’ve been screwing the northern European financial pooch for low these many decades.

Should the good German burgers vote down the proposal, it’ll mean the end of this great European experiment in so-called governance, meaning no bail-out for Greece et al, after all!

But I don’t think that will happen.

Instead the German economy, and its over-taxed citizenry, will begin a long and low drift to Zombie-land in which its other trading partners area already well settled (just hope it won’t result in high inflation and a revisit to the good ol’ Weimar daze).

China will not be happy seeing its entire Euro trading area diminsh to the point where nobody there will be able to afford to buy all that Chinese-made stuff being delivered via those endless shipping containers.

All sowing what they reap; right?

#112 Publius Enigma on 09.26.11 at 2:48 pm

Sexy gold blog you’ve got here Garth. I see the Planters brigade is out in full force today.

The comments section has become a one stop shop for metalheads, 9/11 conspiracy nuts, moon landing denialists and public health experts subspecializing in vaccine based prevention.

We’re only missing the anti-fluoride crowd.

#113 Bill Gable on 09.26.11 at 2:50 pm

Most of boomer buddies make a big show, but I am noticing retail stores are dead, and the places here in WE are not attracting big crowds at Open Houses – read nobody.
Earthquake – way overdue – worse – wait til radioactive Fukushima garbage destroys the West Coast and eventually, Hawaii.

Lovely.

#114 b on 09.26.11 at 3:04 pm

On the year stocks are negative and GIC’s are negative after taxes and inflation.

Only if yuo live on Mars have you not been aware the world financial system continues to crater, nothing is fixed as 100s of trillions in derivatives continues to suck the life out of it.

Sure gold has dropped, but is still up 15% on the year and still within its linear trend for the last 10 years. This is a great chance to buy, and probably the last at these prices.

I wouldn’t be so hasty. — Garth

#115 disciple on 09.26.11 at 3:05 pm

#113…Publius…no, you’re only referring to me. There is no crowd. It’s just me. And I know who you are…

#116 jess on 09.26.11 at 3:16 pm

The size of regret …for some
Refunding Risk and Needs for U.S. Speculative-Grade Corporate Issuers, 2010-2014
Summary Observations

============

#117 Alex on 09.26.11 at 3:18 pm

#56 Suede: Global’s angle? “This segment brought to you by ReMax.”

#118 miketheengineer on 09.26.11 at 3:25 pm

Garth et al:

Nostradamus le mad “dude”

Do you think anything exciting is going to happen this week in the Stock Market? RE? Euro Imploding?

They are predicting lots of action this week. I am not sure if or when it is going to happen, but I looked over your posts from the last few days…. this week should be exciting, from earth quakes to “who knows what”. The possibility of the SHTF this week has been turned up a notch.

I filled up the cars last night, bought some extra cases of bottled water. Other than that I am ready. I wish I had some better camping gear.

Garth is your bunker ready?

Mike

Use the water to wash down a Valium. — Garth

#119 45north on 09.26.11 at 3:27 pm

Moneta: I am amazed by the level of complacency coming from public servants as they have not even started to question the safety of their pensions while they load up on condos and luxury homes.

that’s my feeling too

#120 Publius Enigma on 09.26.11 at 3:34 pm

Hey Mike. Here’s a bit of excellent advice an old gentleman gave to me once:

“Eat one live frog first thing in the morning. Then you can feel relatively comfortable that nothing worse will happen to you all day. ”

Seriously man, it works.

#121 Stevenson on 09.26.11 at 3:39 pm

Looks like Greece is going to get bailed out and all will be well. At least for the next while. The world will just keep on printing money and avoid cashing in each others debt. Real estate prices will still have no place to go but up until the next big disaster. This may be a good place to buy in to the market or real estate as there is no reason for the prices to fall.

Real estate cannot increase without more income or more borrowing. — Garth

#122 jess on 09.26.11 at 3:40 pm

It was Ireland’s most expensive house, sold at the height of the Celtic Tiger boom for an eye-popping €58m, now it’s on sale for just €15m

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/sep/22/ireland-most-expensive-house-walford

#123 TaxHaven on 09.26.11 at 3:44 pm

@b, I HAVE followed your advice & bought.

What’s with Canadians and RISK? They avoid it like the plague: I just returned to this country after twenty years abroad and I’ve never seen a people more risk averse.

They have fire insurance. Mortgage insurance. Dental insurance. Home insurance (to prevent tradesmen falling off their roofs & suing!)…they trust their doctor, their pharmacist, their accountant. They invest “safely” at 1 or 2%. They believe in cash. They think real estate is guaranteed. Even today, IF they still have their jobs, they keep blithely paying $3 for a Starbuck’s, buying groceries with credit cards and $100+/month cable/Internet bills.

And they think this levitation will go on forever. Canadians, with their economy based on service industry jobs and financial jiggery-pokery, seem to know absolutely nothing about how the rest of the world lives…

News for you all: RISK never went away. You HAVE to be buying in the stock market NOW if you want to get ahead – but the catch is: without doing YOUR OWN research – and even IF you do! – you accept risk.

There’s no avoiding it, Canadians.

#124 Maybe Not on 09.26.11 at 3:46 pm

Re: Van Allen Belts:

http://www.clavius.org/envrad.html

“The recent Fox TV show, which I saw, is an ingenious and entertaining assemblage of nonsense. The claim that radiation exposure during the Apollo missions would have been fatal to the astronauts is only one example of such nonsense.” — Dr. James Van Allen

#125 bigrider on 09.26.11 at 3:48 pm

#85 Freedom85 Garth’s – ‘It’s pure conjecture”

That trader pretty much told it like it is. I’m glad you are confidently sure it is pure conjecture.

I would say all bets are conjecture but the price of his possibly correct call just way to high.

20/80 equity to fixed income sounds like a better bet.

Then you misunderstand risk. — Garth

#126 jess on 09.26.11 at 3:50 pm

Mad Vlad

1/6 the going rate but cheaper insurance didn’t change where the people live.

Floridians’ home-insurance rates were reduced by creating a state-subsidized pool of $28 billion in catastrophe insurance coverage.

Catastrophe keeps us together
Aug 27th 2007, 19:18 by The Economist | WASHINGTON

#127 smartalox on 09.26.11 at 3:53 pm

I don’t normally post random links, but I read this reprinted in the Van Sun today, and was genuinely frightened. How many here could survivre under these conditions?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/8787722/Once-prosperous-New-Yorkers-forced-to-live-under-canvas-in-New-Jersey-woods.html

#128 Smoking Man's son on 09.26.11 at 3:55 pm

Try this

http://republicbroadcasting.org/archives/index.php?cmd=archives.month&ProgramID=81&year=11&month=9&backURL=index.php%253Fcmd%253Darchives.getyear%2526ProgramID%253D81%26year%3D11%26backURL%3Dindex.php%253Fcmd%253Darchives

#129 Andrey on 09.26.11 at 3:57 pm

Re #113
> We’re only missing the anti-fluoride crowd.

We have some too http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/09/21/stimulate-this/#comment-125055

#130 Herb on 09.26.11 at 4:02 pm

Amarillo,

no problem with your premise, formula or capital result at #14 and 76. But let me point out a practical difficulty.

Assume Joe Blow Average needs a pension of $25K/yr in retirement, presupposing a capital amount of $833K to fund that pension. Further assume Joe Blow Average makes an average of $60K/year between the age of 24, when he is fully qualified for his trade or profession, and the hoped-for retirement at 65. So he has, say, 40 years to make the required bundle of $833K (a few years up or down won’t matter for the sake of argument.)

First of all, his $60K gets whacked by income tax. Let’s leave him $45K net. How many years would he have to work to accumulate $833K? Eighteen-and-a-half. But he can’t live on love and fried snowballs for 18-1/2 years, so he will have to make his old-age grubstake while keeping the consumer economy going and meeting the necessities of life. How much can he put aside a year? Let’s assume he’s a real saver and can hive-off 20% of 45K a year. So now he will be able to contribute $9,000 annually. Trouble is, it then will take him 92.56 years to get up to the $833,333 he needs.

Admittedly, I am ignoring the magic of compounding, capital growth, market up-ticks and downturns, return of capital, and government contributions in cash or tax breaks. But let us not ignore that a lot of Canadians either do not make enough or cannot put aside enough to fund an average retirement. Let us also not ignore the fact that we have a genuine social problem in the making. Doesn’t matter if it is due to homeownership or buying stuff. It can be solved by the private sector paying enough to make sufficient capital accumulation possible, or by government working out and imposing a solution. We could go for the “renewal” of “Logan’s Run” or turn people into “Soylent Green”, but we can’t ignore that segments of our society will be suffering and may not quietly accept the blame for their predicament.

If we don’t get real, it will get ugly.

#131 Stevenson on 09.26.11 at 4:09 pm

Real Estate prices will continue to increase as long as rates are low and encouraged borrowing. Greece will not default because Europe will bail them out at ALL COSTS.

In Canada’s tax system primary residence real estate is the best investment anybody can make. In any other investment, you would need to bring in a 35%+ gain to be comparable to the tax free income on a real estate property. That would be after calculating your LOST in opportunity cost of paying rent.

3 Years ago many thought it was a bad idea to purchase real estate. Should we wait for another 3 years with cash(providing a negative return) or should you bite the bullet and get in the market while you can still afford to do so.

Real estate risk rises with value, just as with a stock. — Garth

#132 bigrider on 09.26.11 at 4:16 pm

Anyone who possibly, even remotely, believes that houses in Canada can increase in value given the economic backdrop globally, is smoking really bad stuff.

#133 Macrath on 09.26.11 at 4:25 pm

#119 miketheengineer
Have a listen to this trader on the BBC news. I never heard doom like this on the MSN.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15059135

BTW, I just inherited an emergency generator, nothing like Garth`s plant, but enough to run the gas furnace if the wood runs out.

There wasn`t any Valium in the After The Crash supply list !!! must also be good for VIX induced anxiety attacks.

#134 Westernman on 09.26.11 at 4:37 pm

In reference to The American,
You are close…. we are a terribly bland and boring people but worse than that it seems most Canadians’ highest priority is being ” Nice ” whatever the hell that is… ans as such they are prime targets for any shyster with a kind word, pair of tie down straps and a large bucket of ” anal eaze ” Don’t expect anything innovative,creative,authentic or genuine out of a Canadian – they just don’t have it. Canada is a solidly second tier country – always was and always will be.

#135 Darryl on 09.26.11 at 4:37 pm

Mannnn

The solar flares are realy waking up the nutbars today.

Good entertainment though.

#136 dddd on 09.26.11 at 5:01 pm

Real estate risk rises with value, just as with a stock. — Garth

but the TAX FREE status remains. this is a really big factor, isn’t it?

and by value, you mean price, yes? high value is not risky, high prices are.

#137 Moneta on 09.26.11 at 5:03 pm

It can be solved by the private sector paying enough to make sufficient capital accumulation possible, or by government working out and imposing a solution
——
The problem is that public servants get to dip in the private sector’s profits to fund their pension plans.

Meanwhile, the private sector sector can’t dip into the public sector’s earnings to fund its retirement because it’s not for profit!

Private sector gets lower wages (and often no pensions) in order to generate the profits growth and dividends that fund the public servants pensions.

And don’t get me wrong, I have no issue with the number of public servants. I just have a huge problem with their benefits. Either everyone (public + private) gets the same beneftis or public pensions get cut.

#138 Math is Fun on 09.26.11 at 5:05 pm

Did anyone notice the “bowling alley” has only 2 lanes.
Is this because of inflation?! Lol.

What a joke.

#139 timo on 09.26.11 at 5:07 pm

#134, Macrath,

That scared the s&*t out of me and it do hope that he was throwing that out to exploit the fear in the markets.

I thought I heard a pin drop in that segment. great link.

#140 homeinboca on 09.26.11 at 5:16 pm

Hi Garth, I listened to the entire interview on the This Week in Money podcast. After listening to the first two guys, I felt there is no hope for mankind, at least you offered some sane ideas about how to prosper in the coming years and it was all not going to end tomorrow!

I also found it interesting that they have a guy pumping and dumping some cheap worthless mining stock as their main advertising support. Yea, I think I’ll sell everything and buy some Manganese mining stock. What a crock!

#141 penpal on 09.26.11 at 5:16 pm

@ # 132 Stevenson

We’ll see.

Check the RE markets in the US , UK, Ireland, Spain and Portugal.

Low interest rates don’t work to levitate housing prices once fundamentals assert themselves, which is currently occurring now in Canada

If anything, low interest rates are reflective of a WEAK economy – an economy where jobs are scarce and getting scarcer.

Even in a RE market as frothy as Canada’s, you need jobs to buy houses.

#142 penpal on 09.26.11 at 5:28 pm

@ # 122 aand # 132 Stevenson

Let me guess – you’re a (soon to be unemployed) Realturd?

In my experience Realturds are the least savvy buyers of real property.

They all drink the kool-aid.

Here’s hoping you do too Stevenson!

#143 Herb on 09.26.11 at 6:02 pm

#138 Moneta,

I obviously am missing something. Up to now I have assumed that the private sector, i.e., corporations and businesses, fund government and public servants through the payment of corporate taxes. Now you are telling us that

public servants get to dip in the private sector’s profits to fund their pension plans.

I did not know that there were dark channels through which public servants are able to siphon off private sector profits to fund their pension plans. Please let us know how this is done so we can get it changed.

#144 Geart day to sell stocks on 09.26.11 at 6:18 pm

12 Giant U.S. Banks Vulnerable to Disaster!
Martin D. Weiss Ph.D. | Monday, September 26, 2011 at 7:30 am

Imagine this scenario …

The largest economy in the world is on the brink of a financial meltdown that could make the debt debacle of 2008 seem small by comparison.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/12-giant-u-s-banks-vulnerable-to-disaster-47357

Martin Weiss is a nutbar. — Garth

#145 wtf????? on 09.26.11 at 6:22 pm

US M1 inflation supply is blown up to increase of 38.6%…..and you say theres no inflation in the pipeline Mr. Carney? The last time an FOI request was filed the CDN Fed had to admit to 15% increase in M3 ( thats cash folks)…….and you wonder why your foodprices and gas have gone up? Huh?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm

Of course this bodes well for commodity prices ( units of exchange)and all things ( including real estate). But……don’t think this is going to make you personally rich……things will go up in price and value commensurate to the money supply……meaning that the value of your current savings is plunging…..while you will have to fork over more paper units for your purchase versus last year(s). This ain’t rocket science folks……its a tawdry scam to increase government revenues and have ready cash available for government spending on increased pensions for civic parasites.

Weak economic demand means lower commodity prices, no matter how many dollars are printed. Gold is pointing the way. Hope you took your profits when I suggested. — Garth

#146 The InvestorsFriend on 09.26.11 at 6:34 pm

DOOMSDAY DELAYED

Markets were up over 2% today. It seems the financial doomsday and the need to go off to the bunker with guns, ammo, canned food, farm implements, seeds (and young virgins with which to re-populate the world) has been delayed.

Oh well, doomers, don’t worry it’s still possible that a financial melt-down is around the corner.

Don’t bet on it though.

#147 Stevenson on 09.26.11 at 6:40 pm

#143 Penpal

Exactly so if we remain on track with economy at slow growth and corporate companies making good profit. Jobs will remain, real estate will sell as always, you will be renting your parents basement apartment or someone else’s mortgage. Oh and one more thing you will still be wishful thinking.

Even if such an event does ever occur can you control it? What factors do you have over the macro environment? Can you ask Europe to not bail out greece and the everything fall apart?

I am in debt and so is most of Canada. I am not wishful thinking but can you control or guarantee that the government will not help the people in debt? Maybe they will lay out a wealth tax that will tax the people who save. The one’s exactly like you. Either that or they increase taxes to the people who can afford to pay more. Who knows?

#148 jed on 09.26.11 at 6:42 pm

#135–Second Tier? Who places us that high? I live on the wet, boring west coast and the main hobby here is to tell others how great we are. “Best Place on Earth”–it’s even on our license plates–how moronic; people in Hawaii don’t need to advertise; everyone knows the climate and scenery rules their. Here, a gravelly patch covered with slugs, wet slippery rocks, and frickin cold weather (and I’m just talking about the summer–try a windy day near the water) and we call it a beach? At least people in Siberia accept they are in Siberia…

#149 Stevenson on 09.26.11 at 6:43 pm

#143 Penpal

Also I am in debt, but also in the position at the moment tosell and cash in on a large amount of tax free income. Control what you can control, but don’t blame or flame others if you missed the boat.

#150 Geart day to sell stocks on 09.26.11 at 6:44 pm

Come on Garth you can’t say “Martin Weiss is a nutbar. — Garth”

He has correctly predicted the US housing crash , named all the major US banks which would be bankrupt and worthless. he correctly predicted to short or sell all those mortgages lenders and said they would be worthless and they were $90+ stocks. I still remember the talking heads screaming bear sterins was going to be ok at $60 and three days later they were bankrupt and Weiss saying to sell and short bear sterins. CNBC and the other talking heads seem like nutbags to me.

#151 Canis on 09.26.11 at 7:00 pm

#99: Realtors and developors are doing “assemblies” along major arteries, including Granville, in Vancouver: owners of a row of SFH’s sell, houses torn down and replaced with higher density, i.e. condo developments. These owners of SFH’s have hit the biggest jackpot of all; because of locations on busy streets, their houses were historically less valuable, but now because of conversion to high-density, they get the highest price for houses/lots of their kind.

#152 Bill Gable on 09.26.11 at 7:45 pm

I finally got so fed up with Global, a division of Re/Max, I phoned the news director.
He wasn’t really happy when I mentioned that I have now made a formal complaint with CRTC about the blatant lying about Real Estate.

This video was so disturbing it made me sick.

Does anyone believe this garbage?

Whalley?

OMG.

#153 Ronaldo on 09.26.11 at 8:11 pm

#124 Tax Haven – well said. Couldn’t agree more.

#154 TurnerNation on 09.26.11 at 8:16 pm

Track the Alberta Index (the quantity of Ford F350s for sale at any given time):

http://tinyurl.com/3koavuh

#155 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.26.11 at 8:27 pm


Great stuff (posts) today. Must be the cold, windy and rainy day in LaDeeDa land.

#119 miketheengineer — G’day Mike. Of course, I am as ready as I’ll ever be. Haven’t got a bunker, Hummer, Harley, not self-sufficient but I can take care of the basics in my life, that’s all.

Am I worried? Nope, ‘coz I can’t do anything about outer events. If stock markets crash, nuke power plants explode. quake-o-canoes erupt, I’m fine. I’m happy with what I have accomplished in life. Cheers!

#127 jess — “Catastrophe keeps us together”

Indeed. We’re more than likely to step up to the plate and be counted when something unexpected happens. It’s basic human nature — see the incident recently in California, when a motorbike rider slammed into a truck which had cut him off.

People on sidewalks who saw it ran to help him (he and the bike had gone under truck), the bike was on fire but without thinking of the consequences, a few ran to where everything was happening, dragged him away from the burning machines, he recovered then the fire trucks arrived.

He has a few broken bones, but is okay. The other people have disappeared now. Don’t know whether the driver of the truck was charged.

That’s how catastrophes link us together. Thanks for the post.

#147 The InvestorsFriend — “DOOMSDAY DELAYED” — Until next week. Same time, same place, same meatheads!
*
1:14 clip Better understanding of the NWO, crackdowns, police states, etc.; 0:38 clip It’s no wonder the UK is beyond broke; Enron 2.0 This is getting quite confusing; Europe squared = TROTW blindsided (except TPTB); 1:28 clip Let them eat cake! (55 Wall St.); African-American unemployment reaches new highs (probably higher if one ignores govt. figures); Paranoid That’s what the elite want — us to be running around going nowhere; London gold exchange permanently closed; Gold – Silver First, the US and now, France; Hang ‘Em High The banxters, that is; 1:09 clip Simon Johnston has an interesting theory.

US – Canada Change yer money over quick! Lotsa links, but the main one is that the US Fed was created on Xmas Eve 1913, and shortly after WW1 began funded by the elite. They are still doing it; Massive Shortfall of jobs;

CIA Possibly they can try hiring lemmings or sloths; Bloggers can be traced anywhere if they use threatening posts, via the computer’s IP address; Palestine One state coming forth; UN Land Grab Africa, through mass murder. Good to see the Activist Post up. Guggle was probably inundated by complaints; The US seems to have pretty much written itself out of good relations with numerous countries, and China backs Palestinian bid; Wall St. Protests Don’t give in to those m-f’ers.

Not sure how accurate this is, but Ron Paul really adds zest to this mixture; 3:26 clip Surviving. “People can feel it in the air…”; Drug Cartels Who is funding them? Turkey – Iran “Which the US will spin as an Iranian invasion requiring US response.” wrh.com. Not a bad idea, as the US would be stretched so far and wide, they really couldn’t do any further damage; Libya What else can expect from the paid-for and controlled m$m? Not much; Yemen thanks US, and Bahrain brutality; Eligibility “Ready for President Schwarzenegger? Or President Rahm Emanuel?” wrh.com; Facebook Dump it.

#156 Papa Luigi on 09.26.11 at 8:28 pm

#133 Big Rider

Anyone who possibly, even remotely, believes that houses in Canada can increase in value given the economic backdrop globally, is smoking really bad stuff.

Whadda meana Bigga Rider? The backa splasha maka the housa always go uppa. I smoka the same cigara I always a smoka. The housa they always go uppa. No listena to dat Gartha Turner pazzo head. You buya the housa and sit back and smoka the cigara just like Papa Luigi. Everyting gonna be alrighta. Capice paesano?

#157 disciple on 09.26.11 at 8:38 pm

#125 Maybe not…seriously? Clavius.org. Do you even know who Clavius was? A Jesuit no less, who gave us the distorted measure of time we call the Gregorian calendar. Yes, I know they named it after the fictional base on the moon…don’t bore me with nonsense.

I know for a fact you did not even read the link you provided. For had you done so, you would have seen that none of the issues brought up by the Van Allen belts is DIRECTLY addressed. Straw men everywhere. This website is an obvious Jesuit front. Which tells a lot about you…

#158 John Reid on 09.26.11 at 8:47 pm

Funny how banks can give us .2% on deposits, take that money and often get a 40% return for themselves.

The PURE TRUTH

#159 Keeping the Faith on 09.26.11 at 8:53 pm

#122 Stevenson and any of your other posts …

How dare you try and ruin peoples financial lives for your own gain!

Your ignorant and you should be ashamed of yourself.

RE Pumpers the end is nigh!
Beware!

#160 Stevenson on 09.26.11 at 8:56 pm

Looks like we will be okay okay withstand another recession. That is if it comes around…. lets hope we won’t have to wait for a few more years before some possible potential economic downturn.

Can Canada withstand the global economic turmoil?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/yourcommunity/2011/09/can-canada-withstand-the-global-economic-turmoil.html

For those of you who have confirmation bias or selective reading/posting the government can not mislead/imply the economy is going a direction it is not. Ultimately they are responsible for their words and results.

#161 The thing in the basement on 09.26.11 at 9:10 pm

89 Waterloo – no more than the people in Seattle, SF, LA,
Santiago, Mexico City, Istanbul, Tehran, Tokyo…..

#162 The thing in the basement on 09.26.11 at 9:13 pm

131 Herb – ignoring inflation and wage increases, and assuming a return of 6%, 10% of your gross saved over 35 years will yield about 2/3 of your gross for a 25 year
period following.

#163 The thing in the basement on 09.26.11 at 9:23 pm

Re above – Sorry Herb – works better at just over 5%

#164 Stevenson on 09.26.11 at 9:32 pm

#160 Keep your faith?

Ashamed? are you serious? Its not like I am using abusing cheap labor. Not that it’s a problem. It’s not like Apple does not endorse that through it’s suppliers. Profit comes from sacrifices.

I am in no way asking others to do what I have done, but just glad I did not wait around wishful thinking. The world runs around debt and unfortunately majority usually wins. Think about it…where has saving left people. Buy the dips or at least buy on the momentum.

#165 nonplused on 09.26.11 at 11:55 pm

#87 Disciple

Van Allen Belt? Really?

I love a good conspiracy theory but the moon thing is just too much. There would be just too much risk saying you are on the moon when you aren’t, when the Russians and everyone else has telescopes and radar that can see if you are (or are not) there.

Further, the Japanese currently have people working in Fukashima, exposed to much higher levels of radiation. None of them have died yet, although some almost certainly will at some point.

The real conspiracy about the moon manned landings is “why did they waste so much money on something a robot could have done for a fraction of the cost?” The answer to that question is the point. To develop, prove, and demonstrate heavy lift space capacity, thus letting the USSR know the Americans could drop some serious crap on their heads. A secondary goal was to fund a lot of aerospace research. And it was really cool.

#166 Sky on 09.27.11 at 6:38 am

@ Waterloo Resident- “Is ANYONE in BC’s lower coast-land areas even the least bit worried about the MASSIVE Earthquake that is about to hit the area soon?”

Yes, me. I’m worried, even though I live in the Okanagan. But I know where our food supply comes from. If the Vancouver ports or the highways are put out of commission it’s buh-bye decent meals – hello scrounging.

Who can forget the horrific scenes in Haiti and Japan? Canada’s not immune. But have we learned anything? I doubt it.

How many people keep an adequate supply of food to last them a few weeks in case of earthquake, civil servant strikes, or civil unrest? Not many, is my guess.

And, yes, rotating the stored food & water is a major pain in the butt. But what’s the alternative? The government agencies? Don’t even go there.

BTW- canned food is best because it’s already hydrated.

#167 TurnerNation on 09.27.11 at 8:24 am

166 nonplused on 09.26.11 at 11:55 pm

Worth mentioning, that was over FOURTY years ago!! Fourty. With today’s technology we should be zipping to the moon every month or so. Why not? That’s the question. Don’t tell me there’s “no interest” in the moon. Yeah right.
Soon it will be 50 years, then 60 years, for how long can they maintain the facade?