The news

In Victoria, a gorgeous 1930s classic home on a rich, leafy street listed for $1.8 million in June is now offered at $1.4 million. The seller, says his agent, “is really motivated. He just doesn’t want to carry it through the winter.”

In Wolfville, jewel of Nova Scotia’s Annapolis Valley, a fully-restored mansion with impeccable pedigree, granite and stainless, media room and endless charm was offered at almost $700,000 nine months ago. Now it’s listed in the fives. “Make an offer,” the agent begs. “They must sell.”

Within ten minutes of my hermetically-sealed GTA bunker, new listings have smeared mls.ca like an attack of crabs. But the old ones are still there. The house down the street that was $2.4 million is now a mere $1.8. The new build formerly $1.2 million languishes in the unloved nines. And it looks like the Eaton boys are trying to offload their last estate a few roads over – a fresh listing at $19 million. Word is the last family compound went for eight million below asking.

In Friday’s Globe an article begins, “Toronto’s hot housing market may be showing the first signs of cooling as a surge of new listings arrived right after Labour Day to a lukewarm response from potential buyers.”

In BC, the provincial real estate cartel’s economist surveyed slowing demand in Canada’s most dysfunctional city and stated, “Consumer demand is in line with the overall economic conditions and, frankly, conditions in Canada have deteriorated.”

Of course, I don’t need to tell you about Kelowna, Windsor or the Fraser Valley. Crickets. And did you hear about the massive RIM job cuts in Waterloo, or the closing of Ford’s giant car assembly plant outside of London this week? While at it, let’s not forget the news on this pathetic blog in recent days – household debt’s hit a new record high, while employment declines and personal net worth falls.

In Vancouver, a guy who listed his house at two and a half million expecting multiple offers and a sale in 48 hours has been waiting 40 days. Nothing. Not even a soft lob. “I’m not having fun any more,” he tells me.

This is real news. It’s what’s happening.

Now contrast that with the news manufactured by the housing lobby, and relayed by their willing sycophants in the mainstream media.

“Average home prices in British Columbia are expected to surge to yet a new record high by the end of the year,” reports the CBC. “Bryan Yu, an economist with Central 1 Credit Union, said the median home price in the province will increase 6.8% to $417,000.”

Global National carries a piece on the “strong Canadian housing market which has defied the news coming out of Europe or the United States,” citing the latest release from the Canadian Real Estate Association. “The housing market in Canada remained on a firm footing in August when compared to volatile financial markets,” said CREA president Gary Morse. “Through their actions, homebuyers are showing that they remain confident about the stability of the Canadian housing market and recognize that the continuation of low interest rates represents an excellent opportunity to buy their first home or trade up.”

Rarely has there been such a dichotomy between what’s happening across neighbourhoods and cities, and what people are being told is happening. Desperate to keep alive the fiction of a robust housing market replete with balance and affordability, the real estate lobby trots out stats which may not be false, but are surely meaningless. Fact is, the price of homes in most cities has soared  beyond reason, thanks to cheap money and horny, manipulated buyers. At the same time the economic fundamentals have wilted – less growth, fewer jobs, lousy trade, more debt – leading to the inevitable.

But the actual news (as opposed to the kind you hear on Global) is that the inevitable is here. At least in places where buyers have gone on strike, or given up, or simply been priced out by vendor greed and realtor rapaciousness. The fact is, asking prices are falling even as the experts tell us sales prices are rising. It’s like driving using the rear view mirror, instead of the windshield.

You’d think someone in a position of public trust would tell people what’s actually coming. Or hope that it were so. Instead, since real estate’s the most emotional (and expensive) of assets, opinion leaders believe people can be influenced with false news and motivated by faux confidence.

But this will fail. Sadly, not before more young couples buy with nothing down, before more families take the plunge into swollen mortgages or before more sellers list at prices destined to repel buyers, turning their homes illiquid.

Soon there will be anger. And blame. Enough for all.

The following is from the local paper in Redding, California. A preview?

“An Anderson estate near the Sacramento River that four years ago was on the market for $1.15 million was sold Wednesday at a public foreclosure auction for less than a third of that price. Purchasing the River Bluff Drive house for an investor, Redding real estate agent Terence Davis claimed the winning bid of $348,900. The auction was a two-person show as Davis outbid Tanya Enriquez, who also is a Redding real estate agent.

“After an opening bid of $330,000, the two went back and forth for about 15 minutes. Working with investors, both had their ears to cellphones, relaying bids from their clients to the auctioneer while some dozen people looked on at the Shasta County Courthouse.

And this is an email to me from a senior writer at Maclean’s magazine.

Hey Garth, hope all is well. I’m putting together a story for our next issue (possibly the cover) looking at how central bank and government policy has amounted to a war on savers and the prudent. I’m on the hunt for some regular folk to talk to, people who have saved and foregone on purchases in order to be prudent, and who may be feeling like chumps since they’ve essentially been rewarded with negative savings rates after inflation and are subsidizing the lifestyles of spendthrift borrowers. I’m sending this around to see if you know anyone in this boat, perhaps a reader who’s shared his or her story, that you could put in touch with me?

Care to participate? Email me ([email protected]). I’ll pass it along.

Have I ever mentioned this will not end well?

 

177 comments ↓

#1 Joseph Trombetta on 09.15.11 at 10:02 pm

My opinion, Real Estate will continue to exist because we need to live somewhere. Canadians buying a home beyond their means will go through some tough times over the next 2 to 3 yrs. Purchasing income producing properties and paying them off quickly is the key to holding real estate as an investment.

From JT

#2 SquareNinja on 09.15.11 at 10:06 pm

I am ready with popcorn for the fireworks! Finally, the show begins.

#3 Calgary Illusion on 09.15.11 at 10:07 pm

It’s about time saver’s get their moment in the spotlight. Way to go Mclean’s magazine!

#1 – the key to holding real estate as investment is to buy low and sell high – regardless if it is income producing or not.

#4 SquareNinja on 09.15.11 at 10:10 pm

Garth, question for you: It is of my opinion that Mainland Chinese “investors” have driven up real estate prices in Vancouver, Hong Kong, Taipei, etc… primarily because they have never seen a bubble and don’t know what to expect.

In your opinion, do you think that the China real estate bubble could pop – or is it really different there? I mean, they have an authoritarian government which could do some very 1982-esque things if they ever wanted to force the country down some path… they have done it before…

#5 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.15.11 at 10:13 pm

DELETED

#6 Bill Gable on 09.15.11 at 10:17 pm

The joint we rented – and then told the owner to get lost (*listed the place while we were in it, and said she wouldn’t). We got a new place – better. She is still refusing to drop her asking price of over $950 K for 1100 sq. She thought they would be lined out the door! This is primo Vancouver, and in 5 months she has had three showings.

I said it before – tumbleweeds at Open Houses here.
Agents are getting sweaty and I can only imagine the leveraged owners looking at what they thought as a sinecure, that is now becoming an albatross.

One last note, Turnerites.

America – is in deep doo doo. I have a friend who, shall we euphemistically say is in “Government” in Washington. I won’t be too specific, because Obama and his cruisers are looking for negatives – but my friend, a senior heavy says that he quit his job today.

He has been a Washington insider since Mr. Clinton and he told me in no uncertain terms that he thinks his Family are no longer going to be safe living in Virginia.
His wife is Canadian – they are hoping to move to GTA, asap.
This man is a prototypical American…and today he said in hushed tones…..”They have lost control and we all know what’s coming….and frankly, I am scared….”.

Whoever “they” are, let smoking man figure it out…but when AMERICA is facing the abyss, and leaders like my friend are SCARED, that says something.

Time to start paying attention bucko.
If a guy that graduated Summa Cum Laude at Harvard, in Economics, and also is a Doctor of Jurisprudence and he thinks the USA is in trouble, it gave me serious pause.

Just like The Democrats must feel, when the seat that Anthony Weiner blew up, went GOP for the first time since 1922 – things are changing by the nano second.

Holy Bachman – “Waiter, check please!!”

#7 vinny on 09.15.11 at 10:19 pm

I am ready with popcorn for the fireworks! Finally, the show begins.

me 2… this will not end well

#8 OttawaMike on 09.15.11 at 10:22 pm

Another US real estate story:
Worcester Mass., basically a Boston bedroom community now after being gutted of its industrial base over the past 25 years.

A friend was up visiting last week from there and recounted the very recent sale of an all brick triplex, 1920’s build, restored to its glory with 10 foot ceilings and huge windows. Power of sale landed one offer at $100k which was accepted by the bank.

Rents are $2800 for the 3 suites and taxes are around $4000. It is fully rented with long term tenants.

Real estate is considered so toxic in some areas down there nobody will touch it even when the cap rate makes sense like this one does.

#9 Smoking Man on 09.15.11 at 10:22 pm

The wealth effect…..

Bubble heads one day you may grow cahoonas and actually risk some labour credits.
The flop might just go your way…..What to do is the question?.

Most of you and it happened to me will buy that castle, the beamer, the vacations. But it comes with a huge price, and if you don’t work it right you will be miserable.

In my mid 30’s I was on top of the world, launches with the sultans in their palaces, golf with leaders in business in Japan, China, Singapore, Malaysia, during the boom. I enjoyed excursions on private jets to Pat Pong street in Bangkok by night golf by day. Ya it was fun. And then you go home.

Friends that you have had your whole life become distant, you offer them some help they will either take it as an insult or will try and get it all off you. No middle..

So you trash them for the folks on the other side of the tracks. Only to discover that they are boarding predators just like you….Hungry boarding sharks in the same tank with no seals to feed on. You can’t be yourself lift your leg and fart, or let your guard down…It’s like a prison.

So one day you get smart, fake going broke, you down size, you buy a basic pick up and a small house, and try and get your old friends back, and you do. Especially if they think they have more labour credits than you do…

But it’s not the same as I have discovered, once you see them with the mask off, it can never go back on……

Now comes sis in law, high school drop out, dumps hubby a great man and father for a dumb toy boy carpet layer, she get laid off from a gov’t job that she was an expert in, Starts a consulting company with my help, and pulls down a few mil a year. Not even close to my stack by the way.

Well talk about going big, with all the toys. The custom built house, employees kissing butt, it consumes her, she now feels like a god…Her son from first marriage a university educated dispatcher for a trucking company, she will not hire him cause as she says not committed enough.

Truth is unlike everyone around her who bow and line up to plant kisses on her flabee old ass he just does not have enough sense to do it. It his mom how can he.
She don’t see it, he don’t see it.

At family get together’s watching the other sibling connive and plan and try and figure out how to tap into her good fortune is kind of fun. She is an outsider now but does not know it, but they will do anything to be the favorite. I love xmas dinners, can you say smoking man master sh!t disturber. They all feel sorry for me now it’s a beautiful thing.. I am know included in all the gossip stream… ah hahahahaha I’m back……

Guess what I’m trying to say is never give your best buds the opportunity to take off the mask by out doing them, you won’t like what you will see, accumulate your wealth in stealth and you will have it all………Very Hard to do…………

PS love the feed back from all off you weather good or bad:) Read em all

#10 Beach Girl on 09.15.11 at 10:31 pm

Still hungover. But all this news is depressing. Holy shit, have to straighten up. I have enough money to last my life time. But all this crap is making me nervous. Over indulgence is bad in any shape or form. I thought I was superior, not feeling so well now.

#11 Mr. Lahey, Trailer Park Supervisor Extraordinaire on 09.15.11 at 10:33 pm

Garth said, “You’d think someone in a position of public trust would tell people what’s actually coming”. I agree Garth. We need the powers that be to yell at the top of their lungs on the National with Peter Mansbridge, “it’s over everyone, the f%$#^%$ shithawks are coming!!!”

#12 disciple on 09.15.11 at 10:38 pm

The cartel is amorphous, its boundaries do not end with the realtors, many factions of society are highly dependent on rising home prices and/or maintaining them at stratospheric levels. Some would argue that the underpinning of the economy itself, consumer spending, depends on the psychology of perceived wealth through rising home prices….if it ever became known that they are falling, consumer confidence would wither and we’d find ourselves in a very dark predicament.

Don’t you see that this has all been planned? Do you honestly think that Big Finance is stupid enough to lend money they know is realistically un-repayable? They knew all along that they would exact their pound of flesh from the taxpayer and then eventually from unfunded liabilities, government pensions, union retirement funds, and like Utopia said, population reduction through eating of babies.

The mainstream media is very busy these days pumping out their ultra-right wing deceptive complaints of too much “gravy”, in order to hand over our wealth to their banker buddies.

Don’t listen to them, turn off AM radio, that Charles guy is an obvious shill and it’s clear who pays his salary. Even the news channels are trying to sway your mind into thinking that you have it too good. You don’t. You have nothing. You have no savings, you have no good non-service industry job prospects, you have no money invested earning more than inflation, you have no international competitiveness, you have no future, and it’s an even worse vantage point for your children, that’s why the slow mass exodus of young people has begun to other countries and continues as we speak.

It’s time to turn the tables on your real rulers. This is the real power of politics; in that, all of this doom that I have laid out before you can be reversed in just one night. Vote Green, or NDP, or vote for the independent in your riding, heck even vote for the ganga party if you have to. They won’t see that coming for miles. By doing this, you will guarantee yourselves a fighting chance, at the very least, it will give you some breathing room, a chance to see how they will squirm trying to declare a PC or Liberal puppet winner.

You have the power to change things. How can I say this in any more words…Garth will probably cut me off here anyway…

#13 squidly77 on 09.15.11 at 10:38 pm

So the implosion begins.

#14 Nemesis on 09.15.11 at 10:39 pm

A ‘senior’ writer @ MacLean’s…??? Are you f***ing kidding (they wish – but not since BTO, you JalapenoCowBoy, you!)

You’re clearly drinking BC’s best tonight, GT (I’ll give you this though, southern ON’s IceWines are, indisputably, superior).

Ok. On to “Kelowna, Windsor & The Valley”…

If either of Kelowna or the FraserValley had even one tenth the heart ‘o MotownSouth…

Christy wouldn’t need anti-perspirant. Would she? (granted, she’s still a ‘tad’ worried about the outcome of BasiVirk, et al – but I digress)

That’s all for tonight OldChap.

Fried.

In the spirit of, “SmokingMan”.

#15 ken on 09.15.11 at 10:42 pm

The CBC National april 15/11 states housing prices increased 7.7% over the past year.Seems like a great way to make money without working for it,what do you think ?

After closing costs to buy and commission to sell, that’s a loss. — Garth

#16 Mr. Lahey, Trailer Park Supervisor Extraordinaire on 09.15.11 at 10:46 pm

#9 Smoking Man. Glad to know you read all the comments on your posts. Some of us have figured out the human condition all on our own. Hell some of us might even be able to give you some insights into what it’s all about. While you do give out some good tidbits from time to time, your pontifications need to be tempered and you need to realize that not everyone that posts on this blog is some naive bubble head that needs to be told what life is all about. Randy and I have had it figured out for years. “Randy, pour me another drink, I just told that Smokin Man dude he isn’t the know all oracle he thinks he is”.

#17 BPOE on 09.15.11 at 10:47 pm

It’s official folks, there never was a bubble never will be
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2011/09/15/bc-vancouver-real-estate-bubble.html

Folks I focus on BPOE not on whats happening south of the border. I would encourage everyone to come down to BPOE to see whats happening. Sold signs everywhere, bidding wars, this is the new reality. Americans are poor paupers compared to the influx of global rich mega stars flying in to buy everyday. Hurry, these cheap prices are going fast.

#18 Seven Stars and Orion on 09.15.11 at 10:48 pm

Wife and I narrowly lost a bidding war in ’09, and in the days and weeks following, the bitterness led to an awakening, and not just about real estate. This enlightenment was due at least in part to Garth Turner’s tireless (and honourable) blog marathon.

I’m not sure I like the Maclean’s guy fishing for people with chips on their shoulder though. I don’t feel like a chump.

What was acutely humiliating for me though, was the realization of my own naivete and ignorance, and yes, stupid acquiescence of manipulation. Canadian society has just about killed critical thought. Funny that. Fiercely independent rugged northern people that cares for it’s sick and weak. pffft. Don’t spill your latte on your iphone, or worse, your chinos, or worst of all, the seats of your Z4.

#19 Mr. Lahey, Trailer Park Supervisor Extraordinaire on 09.15.11 at 10:52 pm

#8 Ottawa Mike. On a $100k, rents of $2800 a month minus $4000 taxes and maybe another grand in insurance and you have an over 20% cap rate. I don’t what what condition the place is in and hence the maintenance costs but this is still one hell of a return. Your friend should have bought it.

#20 disciple on 09.15.11 at 10:56 pm

Speaking of voting, you know that I assert fraud, blatant and unmistakable, just look at the last federal election, more people voted NDP than PC, yet NDP is the minority? Yeah, okay, I know, first past the post, and riding this, riding that, poppycock. I’ll give you somethin’ to ride…

Anyway, after a certain point, it becomes impossible to continue the fraud, if enough people vote in a certain way. That’s why they don’t actually want young people to come out and vote, because they would all vote for the socialists; in fact, they don’t even want more than half of people to come out and vote, because then their fascist agenda would be hindered.

I know for a fact, that most of you lurkers do not vote because you are intelligent enough to understand the fraud. Of course, the media declares you are just lazy, but we know better, right? But, I say to you, next time, if you simply actually do go out and vote for the least likely to win, there will be a revolution overnight. Try it. You might like it. Better than what we have now. Wouldn’t you agree?

The old system is dying…along with its stalwarts. The younger generation’s minds are the new battlefield. A new crop of potential wealth producers is at stake, with each old stalwart passing down their puppetry knowledge to their sons and daughters on how to continue the mind-control through media, education, and higher academia. But this time they will fail. They don’t know it yet, but they have lost control already.

Because of me. Because of you. Because of us. We know what wealth is. It is not money. It is not paper, it is not silicon wafer switched digital bits, it is not metal, it is not plastic. It is oil and water, and trees, and dirt. It is labour and technology. And very soon, all minds will think…of a world without the myth of scarcity…and it will be so. So be it. Amen.

#21 Marie on 09.15.11 at 11:03 pm

“You’d think someone in a position of public trust would tell people what’s actually coming.”

That’s why we read you Garth. And go to the library.

#22 Jsan on 09.15.11 at 11:05 pm

I think most of us would strongly argue that a 10% drop will just be the warm up to start the speculator stampede all trying to get out of the same door at the same time.

First the Americans just like the Canadians denied there was a housing bubble. Than they acknowledged that price increases would just slowdown. Than they changed that later to prices would no longer increase but just stay flat. Than they revised that to there would be a slight decrease in prices. We all know what happened next.

“House sales, prices projected to fall 10% through to 2013”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/house-sales-prices-projected-to-fall-10-through-to-2013/article2166162/

#23 Onemorething on 09.15.11 at 11:07 pm

The US has another 15-20% nat.avg. to go down kiddies! circa 1998

Canada will suffer by 30% avg over next 3 years. circa 2001

TO VAN 40-50% of 5 years.

No rush to buy, just a rush to dump debt and get ready to be putting 30-50% down. Stay FLUSH and LIQUID!

However, I’m not sure whether is will make sense to buy in the end as you might find the cost of living hard to fund and you must be ready to move at any time so flexibility will be key.

You will need to keep the bodies in your family liquid.

Your government services, schooling and the basic privileges your used too are going to become challenged and your going to have to pay more them.

Double negative!

Even if you can secure your employment, your taxes are going through the roof after services are stripped.

This is the only way governments now have to shed debt at the expense not by the rich and poor but middle class.

This last 30 years was a setup by the elite to monetize, manipulate and rob us blind. Its been going on since the dawn of time but this will be coined the destruction of the middle class.

Sure CHINA has a RE bubble, I see it first hand and talk to key people there who are btw out of RE for RES of COMM. Get ready for this!

AUS-CAN RE will be a hammered! It was never a question of IF but WHEN!!! Hong Kong and SING same.

When the dust settles, and 10 years out the west will be done but not out but just getting back to the realities of WHAT THE HELL WERE WE THINKING!

Marble and SS is for enablers! They will become the enemy as a reminder of how emotionally stupid we had become.

The East will rise! The pick for RE forward is not the West, but if you are looking for a western destination it’s going to be AUS based on 10-20 years as Asia takes the reigns and AUS’s smooth stream of commodities will rock!

Residents of Canada, dont try and even make a play for the Chinese in VAN or TO, you just dont get it!

The money always returns home!

As for the Eaton’s, they are well diversified and an 8M loss is a spit in the bucket as it was only your money anyhow!

#24 OttawaMike on 09.15.11 at 11:12 pm

#19 Mr. Lahey, Trailer Park Supervisor Extraordinaire on 09.15.11 at 10:52 pm

They already have a house and a couple of 8 door income buildings that have depreciated 25-30%(since 08) with everything else.

#25 Patz on 09.15.11 at 11:18 pm

Sorry to say Garth but it’s time for you to wrap up this, as you call it, “pathetic blog.” You’ve done great work but it just hasn’t panned out. Why not?

Well Central 1 Credit Union economists released a report today stating that Vancouver housing is “not in a bubble.” They pointed out that interest rates are low; that “they aren’t making any more land” (damn those guys are smart) and that prices will rise another 7% next year.

So good on ya for trying but guess it just wasn’t to be. Nice to know we can settle back and watch both the grass and our investment grow at the same time, in the same place.

#26 Betty Danin on 09.15.11 at 11:26 pm

I say after October of 2011 the Canadian real estate market will decline for at least 10 years gradually by 25%-40% on average in total. This is my prediction so keep a record of it and for all those who still live in real estate lalaland I gave all of you an advance warning. I only own a main residence I live in all year round and it is maximum 18% of my net worth. I never viewed my house as an investment to live off so I have no problem if my house is worth $100,000 or 2 million. The real estate gravy train is going to crash.

#27 the Phantom on 09.15.11 at 11:30 pm

It’s like driving using the rear view mirror, instead of the windshield.

Gotta love it!!! The hype and the energy invested to blow sunshine up the collective asses of Canadians almost reminds me of the mania that went part and parcel with the pyramid schemes in the early 1990’s…

Excitement, exuberance became tempered and finally the faint hope that many clung to for a resurgence in those illegal enterprises was replaced with a wistful sighing and the rationalization that “at least for that brief interlude, it gave us hope” (I honestly heard some say this once the bubble burst and the entry level people dried up).

I suppose the differences are found in the premise that RE transactions are licit and also that the pyramid schemes that I witnessed were of values that were far smaller than the stakes today with RE.

Taken into consideration, Garth when reviewing the stats that are trotted out sometimes by RE agents and others, you can often rely on the sage words of Magnus Eliason…He said that “Figures never lie but liars use figures.”

Anyway Garth, just my humble two cents worth tonight…Take care all and have a warm night…

the Phantom

PS: Good night to Smoking Man too wherever we may find him :-)

#28 Don on 09.15.11 at 11:34 pm

The mainstream media needs to take a step back and look behind them at the massess who are starting to pay attention. The masses are hearing the real gossip at the water cooler.

Bank economist = LOL
Investigated Journalism is lost on the MSM.

People who exist in glass towers could do themselves a favor and connect to mainstreet before they become totally obsolete and look foolish, and simple as well as manipulative.

When people ask me when I am going to buy a house.

“Get in the game” they say – I have to chuckle, mostly inside, but sometimes aloud with a reply of “Seriously”

It’s Priceless, especially in the last year. And then reply, “Why would I buy now, when I can buy later at much lower price”. I will not discuss real estate at work. I can sense the tension out there (my realtor friends provide sufficient info). I’m waiting like a stubborn donkey and no level of peer pressure is going to work on me.

Hague urged to Probe Pope (Vatican) – do I have to say anymore. We live in nutty times, which explains the Housng Bubble in Canada – especially Raincouver. I lived there for a decade, I can safely call it that, rather live in Kelowna, much more sun, not many jobs though. Vancouver is beautiful in the Summer, but Summer is only a couple of months long, if that and the traffic is like quicksand.

I will not buy any 1950’s shack for a million when I could build better for much less.

#29 Koolaid Drinker on 09.15.11 at 11:35 pm

Prime example:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11094551&PidKey=-1117920681

This house on my block was listed for $1.2 mil about 2 months ago. No bite and the sign came off and now it’s back on the market for $1.05 mil. $150K reduction in 2 month.

#30 Jon B on 09.15.11 at 11:35 pm

I think the big media outlets have a powerful influence to persuade. If they say there is no bubble and prices are expected to push new limits next year, your average ignorant citizen will digest this as fact. Pretty sad statement about our society.

#31 Rich Renter on 09.15.11 at 11:37 pm

It can’t happen in Canada.

#32 Drew on 09.15.11 at 11:42 pm

What’s with these media guys thinking the story is anecdotal renters remorse? CBC Vancouver was trolling for The same thing a few weeks back on VREAA.

Mcleans and others need to roll up their sleeves and do a story on why we are in this predicament we are in. What were the banks doing, what was CMHC doing, what was the Bank of Canada doing? How is this going to end? That’s the story.

Time for some real investigative journalism, not this soft serve human interest pablum.

#33 Bobby on 09.15.11 at 11:46 pm

Interestingly, I was out today looking at a few houses for sale here in Victoria. There are a lot of homes for sale with many of them empty.
I had a chuckle as the Times Colonist just put out an article talking about the deteriorating housing market here and elsewhere on the Island. They were quoting local experts. Yet, there was another article in the same edition quoting CREA about the buoyant housing market and the confidence people have in real estate going forward.
It is all so pathetic it is funny.

#34 daystar on 09.15.11 at 11:49 pm

For the U.S., it hasn’t ended. Its still going down… down… down…

#35 Chaddywack on 09.15.11 at 11:52 pm

@ #20 disciple

What do you mean more people voted NDP than Conservative in the last election? The Conservatives received over 5.8 million votes……….the NDP got 4.5 million.

#36 Smoking Man's son on 09.16.11 at 12:13 am

Dad:

Will you please take your meds..? fer F#cks sakes.

You are 120+ years old……grow TF up.

Quit B.S.-ing Garth’s blog fans.

You live in a trailer near Moose Jaw, which your children ( both legit and otherwise) provided.

How you were able to access Al Gore’s Internet is the only amazing story ya gots.

#37 45north on 09.16.11 at 12:13 am

Bill Gable: This man is a prototypical American…and today he said in hushed tones…..”They have lost control and we all know what’s coming….and frankly, I am scared….”.

ergo Squidly77’s comment: So the implosion begins.

Smoking Man: So one day you get smart, fake going broke, you down size, you buy a basic pick up and a small house, and try and get your old friends back, and you do.

pretty funny

#38 LH on 09.16.11 at 12:15 am

@ #9 Smoking Man

Amen on stealth wealth!

“Cattle not chattel”, as they say in Texas.
I’m already a few mil to the good in my name, and will be a decamillionaire if the legacy stuff comes in as expected.

Live on the cheap and never let your old friends catch any whiff or imprimatur of wealth. When I do drive, we borrow my mother-in-law’s $10,000 micro-car. Yes, that’s the car they own despite having more cash than 99.99% of the population.

Funny thing, I have more investment assets than some of the managing directors around here. That’s what happens when you get sucked into the culture of consumption…

PS: the surge of listings in Toronto on http://www.guava.ca etc is worrying me. I’m holding tight on my investment properties there (transaction costs are killer, and I’m a long-term investor). But in the short term I wouldn’t be surprised if prices drop 25% even in Garth’s midtown neighborhood (let me guess.. South Hill?).

Yours truly,

LH

#39 shanks on 09.16.11 at 12:15 am

cbc announces that prices have risen…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/09/15/crea-august-sales.html

#40 debtified on 09.16.11 at 12:38 am

The European Central Bank and peers in the U.K., Switzerland, Japan and the U.S. said they’ll provide unlimited three-month money to banks in Europe in three tenders starting October.

I think this is a preemptive move in anticipation of a Greece default. The stupid politicians and policy makers may have actually come to their senses or realization that what cannot be paid will not be paid. If this happens, we can finally switch our focus from waiting for the impending doom to working for a much brighter future. Let’s hit the bottom now and move on. The sooner we hit bottom, the sooner we can start a real and more sustainable recovery. I am excited.

P.S. Hey, Smoking Man, guess what? I felt like gambling this week and bought YLO @ $0.75. I believe it was you who bought it just before it tanked. Wish me better luck!

#41 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.16.11 at 12:39 am


To paraphrase Garth’s current post, Midnight Train, a lovely duet with Buddy Guy and Jonny Lang. It’s a train wreck in the west, and it’s gathering momentum and in honor of Flim Flam Flaherty, who likes to serve budgets wearing new shoes, this.
*
#6 Bill Gable — “Whoever “they” are, let smoking man figure it out…but when AMERICA is facing the abyss, and leaders like my friend are SCARED, that says something.” — They are the elite, TPTB, etc. and they thrive on fear, fear of the unknown.

They are already prepared. Myself, too old to worry about it!
*
Inflation Not a pretty sight; Woman and Later allowed to go home, after HUD had messed up (typical govt. interference BS); China liquidating US Treasuries, not dollars. The US$ will probably vaporize soon enough ‘tho, so US$ liquidity Interesting point. If the US$ is defunct, what is greasing their wheels? Helicopter Ben and Timmy And The Toons. Yes, we have no bananas! Gold and California State-owned bank. Yesssirreee, get off The Land Of The Living Fed and go solo; Mtge. Defaults The second half of 2011 (which we’re in now), and TSHHTF big time; G8 + US Fed Barf City, here we spew!

2:48 clip This is where I was yesterday; Not the same as Monty Python’s Arthur “Two Sheds” Jackson, but close; 1:28 clip Al Gore says he is not normal, and I tend to agree. “At 31 seconds into the video, Al Gore is claiming that Big Oil and Big Coal are spending millions of dollars to promote lies about the climate, and one of the illustrations of the “lies” is a sign at right saying “CO2 is natural”. The Al Gore implication being that CO2 is NOT natural, which is absurd.” wrh.com and GW Fear Mongering “Dr. Ivar Giaever resigned as a Fellow from the American Physical Society (APS) on September 13, 2011 . . .”; 3:11 clip The Axis Of Evil (UN – US – NATO) gold, oil and water grab from Libya; 8:26 clip Why we (the US) killed Sadaam (it wasn’t Kuwait, WMD and evidently, Sadaam is still living in Russia); 0:44 clip Sadaam (Iraq’s) gold; Bushehr online “This will be interpreted correctly as a defeat of Israel and its minion the United States Government . . .”

#42 JohnnyBravo on 09.16.11 at 12:41 am

#19 Mr. Lahey, Trailer Park Supervisor Extraordinaire

If the cap rate on that Boston property is 20%, the reason it is so is because no one wants to buy it. In the US, cap rates of 10% or so used to be considered fair. Today, in Toronto you’re lucky to snag a property with a cap rate above 5%, with many smaller properties offering much less.

#43 Devil's Advocate on 09.16.11 at 12:46 am

#170 Devil’s Advocate on 09.15.11 at 8:52 pm…

Are you suggesting that one shouldn’t work or live in Rutland?
>#175Snowboid on 09.15.11 at 10:41 pm

Quite to the contrary. As a matter of fact there are more homes owned outright (without mortgage) in Rutland than any other area of the city (Kelownna). That bodes rather well of that area wouldn’t you agree?

Rutland is simply a more “blue collar” neighbourhood. Nothing wrong with that.

And the income gap continues to widen.

#44 Jimbo on 09.16.11 at 12:46 am

The US Government and Federal Reserve’s program to “stimulate” the economy has completely backfired. The borrowing and printing of money has not made it easier for the Middle Class. Instead, the stimulus has lead to price inflation, which makes it harder for the average family to make ends meet.

So now we have yet another $1/2 trillion in stimulus. That should completely finish off the Middle Class in America and result in a full blown depression.

#45 Einsam Solo on 09.16.11 at 12:48 am

It wasn’t a wind storm, it was merely my neighbor’s collective sighs of relief upon selling their home this summer. It hadn’t been on the market long, only a year or two.
Surprising really when the realtor exalted the “gorgeous” home in the “desirable” Okanagan adult community. You know, the one on land leased from First Nations. The one with gravel pit landscaping. We even have our own gate. Easy to find, just turn left at the “Boil Water Advisory” sign.
They fired the first realtor because no one came to their open house on three consecutive weekends. They stuck with the second realtor even when their listing expired, twice. The asking price stayed the same and when a low ball offer was presented they were offended. But it was the only offer so they negotiated and got another $4000 from the buyer. That made it only $46000 under asking.
They were scorned by other hopeful sellers in the community. How dare they accept such a low offer, they should have held out because the realtor said the market will improve soon. Don’t you know everyone wants to live here? They said so on Global.
I’m looking forward to meeting the new neighbor so I can see what a Greater Fool looks like up close.

#46 Aussie Roy on 09.16.11 at 12:57 am

Aussie Update

Great article today, here is the same message Aussie style. We know the figures, hell I posted enough news and ABS data here over the past few months to know house prices are slipping, debt demand is falling, the mega mortgaged are feeling the squeeze.

Sorry it was all a lie, according to the REIA.

The REIA has broken with other data providers in reporting growth in Australian property values for the June quarter.

http://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/reia-claims-house-price-growth/117656

A Bears breakfast

Two like-minded economic doomsayers met in Sydney yesterday. So demographics and debt were on the bearish breakfast agenda, with not a Donald in sight.

Property Observer’s cameras were there catching the moment when home-town debt doomsayer Steve Keen met noted American demographic analyst Harry Dent.

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/economy/when-harry-met-steve-a-bears-breakfast/2011091551566?source=flicker3

Seems our little cousin across the pond (New Zealand) sees Australia a little different than the mega mortgaged Aussies.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/09/the-rbnz-throws-cold-water-on-the-rba/

You can always short the Aussie banks.

http://www.bbnasset.com.au/short-bank-series/

BPOE you seriously need help, your education starts here.

http://aussiehouseprices.blogspot.com/2011/03/definition-of-bubble-part-1.html

http://aussiehouseprices.blogspot.com/2011/07/definition-of-bubble-part-2.html

http://aussiehouseprices.blogspot.com/2011/09/definition-of-bubble-part-3.html

#47 Burnt Norton on 09.16.11 at 1:03 am

#9 Smoking Man on 09.15.11 at 10:22 pm

Accumulate your wealth in stealth. Huh. A coherent, sensible, maybe even wise post from Smoking Man? It’s scaring me a little.

Smoking Man’s Son from yesterday: WTF? Subatomic quantum porn? Are you a back to the future cyber-reincarnation of Stephen Hawking, Ron Jeremy and comic book guy from The Simpsons?

#48 nonplused on 09.16.11 at 1:07 am

I think you did mention that before Garth.

OK, I’ve only got a few calls right before, specifically how bad the news was likely to be after the Deepwater Horizon caught fire and sank, and how bad Fukashima was going to be (although that one still isn’t in the news, too bad I guess. It’s much worse than the BP Gulf oil spill.) And a couple of other calls that I don’t talk about a lot because Garth doesn’t like them and I have money riding on them. But I will venture another call, and as always it’s not that original and lots of other people have already said the same:

The government debt crisis is much worse than they are letting on. And although it’s a slow moving train wreck, which won’t accelerate as quickly as one would think, it’s already underway. The problems in Europe have no solution, which is why they can’t solve them. Greece will have to default no matter how many times they are bailed out (and then Portugal, Spain, and finally Italy.) The best thing to do would be to default now, suddenly and fully (you can’t jump a chasm in two steps.) But politically not even Germany wants to be in the position where they can be accused of having caused the default by not offering enough support, so that is where we are at. Ongoing attempts to put Humpty Dumpty back together in the hopes that you can say “I did everything I could!” But it won’t work and the bond market is already well aware of that. The bond market is also saying we have at best a year to go before Greece falls no matter what they do.

After that everyone else goes down too, probably in order a bunch of countries people can’t locate on a globe, then the rest of the PIIGS, a few US states, then Britain, then the US Government itself, then Ontario and BC and more US states. Lots of cities and municipalities too of course, scattered in like pepper on eggs. But this is a 5 year outlook, so it won’t ever seem like it’s going happen tomorrow even though it’s already happening today.

#19 Mr. Lahey Name Too Long

The guy could also just buy gold. 20% is old hat. Although today was a bad day but markets are volatile and one day does not a trend make, as Garth seems to have learned since every time he pronounces the end of gold it goes on to a new high.

Mark these words: Garth is correct that there will be no hyperinflation, and likely no deflation either. But in 10-15 years, 200 will be the new 20, just like the 70’s and 80’s saw 20 become the new 2. Let he who has an ear, or more specifically internet and can read a chart, hear. We are in the middle of a 10 to 1 devaluation, about 5 years into it, but it will be a 15 to 20 year process.

The gold market from 1971 to 1982 and then on is instructive. Gold went from about 40 to 800, then crashed down to 400, which was about where it stayed for 20 years although it did trade mostly down and 280 or so was seen. Still, buy and hold at 40 and get 280? Not bad.

Prediction #2. Gold will print well north of $4000 before settling in at $4000 for the next bought of prosperity. If the 80’s are a guide, sell at $8000, that’s the blow off top. But I think the Central Banks will try and manage it a bit better this time so anything over $4000 is a sell. Impossible? How much did RIM go up? A lot more than 100%. What’s happening to RIM now?

PS get out of RIM. Not to go into it, but Apple and more the threat Android is eating their lunch and dating their girlfriend. To respond they are laying people off when they should be innovating like crazy. Stick a fork in it, it’s done. I guess that’s #3, big night. I guess Hamilton won’t get a franchise after all.

#49 JohnnyBravo on 09.16.11 at 1:17 am

#11 Mr. Lahey, Trailer Park Supervisor Extraordinaire

Not sure if you are being sarcastic or not. However, while I don’t want the media to act as PR agents for special interests, I also don’t want them to engender panic among the public.

Maintaining confidence (not blind hope, but confidence) creates a positive feedback loop. And you have to know that our economy, and indeed our entire financial system, depend a great deal on shear confidence in the expectation that tomorrow will be better than today.

That said, what we really need is the TRUTH. The notion that the public can’t handle the truth is, I believe, fostered as an excuse for maintaining tight control. As a recent example, check out Bill C-52.

Sadly, the media employs fear and greed on behalf of special interests in order to maintain that control and profit from it.

“Buy a house now! Prices just keep going up… and up!… Oh, and by the way, the NTAS threat level is ‘elevated’, a terrorist attack may become imminent at any time. Have a nice day!”

#50 rental monkey on 09.16.11 at 1:26 am

I may not always find someone I want to vote for, but i always can find someone to vote against. People should not forget: the abitlity to HAVE a vote is limited in scope of the world. I have never understood people that don’t/won’t vote.

#51 Utopia on 09.16.11 at 1:26 am

The meteorologist took up his post.

From his lofty mountain top aerie overlooking North Vancouver and the coast he could see far into the distance and across the Georgia Straight. There was a storm brewing. A really big one.

His supervisor had called him urgently for his expert opinion and so he was drawn into action, slowed only by the fierce winds that buffeted his 4X4 as he drove high into the hills that morning.

He finally arrived on Grouse Mountain, opened his laptop and then got his equipment ready.

He scanned his telescope and tuned in his radar from far out across the straights, past Vancouver Island and into the distant reaches of the oceans. Reports were coming in that gale force winds were on the rise. The seas were already raging at three meters. Two fishing boats had sunk with all hands lost and the coast guard was on high alert.

A Hercules helicopter was dispatched to assist in the rescue as the few remaining fishermen beat a hasty retreat for the safety of the inland waters. CBC was there to report as the tragedy unfolded and hurricane strength winds slowly built and began to beat against the shore.

“We need a report now”! demanded Environment Canada as the story evolved and grew throughout the day.

The meteorologist, confident in his abilities and his technical craft stood lone sentry on the hill watching as all hell broke loose. He would send in a faithful report. He would not let them all down as the storm quickly surged across Vancouver Island and the swells rolled into the small island communities.

So he got on his satellite phone. He called HQ.

“Boss”! he shouted, “I have reviewed all the data and there is no storm here. It is only a small squall. Nothing to worry about. Tell the fisherman to go back to catching shrimp or whatever the hell it is they actually do”.

The he added this….

“Sunny weather approaches from the West, the storm clouds are fading. It will be a glorious day in Vancouver tomorrow. Fire up the BBQ and party like it’s 1999. “By the way”, he added (with no context to the brewing storm clouds), “I think housing will benefit from this weather. It could even rise further”

The CBC faithfully reported it all. Even the bits that were not true. Hell, who is to argue anyway. An expert said it and that guy has real credentials with a wall plaque and a big salary with a bonus plan too.

Good for them.

Days later, hurricane force winds swept the Lower Mainland. Thousands were lost, store windows broken, buildings were crunched. News was that most of the Pacific Salmon fleet had been sunk and much of the Island lay in ruins.

Global appeared on the scene. “Who could have known?” they intoned with glee while big smiles slipped across their engaging public faces. “It is a terrible disaster”.

They reported it all. Every gory detail. Audiences were in rapture.

Gloria looked across at her Mother on the sofa as the news-reel played out. She had lost her husband and her home in the storm as it burst across their neighborhood. Her eyes filled with tears and she hugged her two orphaned children tightly.

“Who could have known” she repeated.

“Thank God we have the “News” to help us through these troubling times. Oh thank God. Where would we be without them. Then she burst into tears recalling her terrible loss.

“Order the full cable package, Mom” she said as she choked back her tears. “They know what is happening”.
——————————

Oh, did I happen to mention that some fool over at Credit Union 1 says there is no bubble in Vancouver?

No? I didn’t? Well he is an expert. We had all better just throw in the towel and agree with that feeble minded guy. He has credentials after all. Wall plaque and all. He knows better and we are all just fools.

Just repeat it until you go to sleep.

There is no bubble in Vancouver.

#52 HouseBuster on 09.16.11 at 1:26 am

2003 prices are on the way.

$1 million tear down? That ship has sailed.

#53 wtf????? on 09.16.11 at 2:07 am

Really…the dipstick ‘reportweiner’ is trying to fing people who’ve been screwed by the ZIRP? Really? Have him go on to any website for seniors, he’ll get more ‘real people’ than a ‘newsman’ deserves.

Have him stand in line for half an hour at any foodbank and meet some of the families, seniors, homeowners and the working poor who have either been sucked in to mortgages they can’t afford…..have been hit by food inflation prices and they can’t feed their kids…..older savers who have run out of money becaus of the zero return on their 1980’s pensions…..the CPP/OPP crowd whi is eating petfood because the government insists that food inflation and cost of living is less than 2%.

Is this dipwad reporter a guy born with his head up his keister? Has he been covering teachers union meetings where new Cadillacs litter the parking lot and members are calling in from Maui to vote for a strike so they don’t have to return to work after their three month summer holdiay on full pay?

Wants to talk to some Canadians does he? Have him walk out the door sober for a change.

#54 Tim on 09.16.11 at 2:17 am

Regardless of the economic conditions, prices in Vancouver are still ridiculously expensive

#55 Trev16 on 09.16.11 at 2:23 am

Garth,

You are bang on……..there is going to be a world of hurt in the Vancouver real estate market one day and we will soon be reading about all the homeowners under water. Then the headlines will read “Foreclosures reach new high in Vancouver”.

It’s sad…..but what we see playing out in the states will soon be here in Canada. I guess the good news here on the West Coast is our monsoon season is approaching with all the goodies (radiation) coming down on us. I sure love all that continous news coverage of the still unfolding worst nuclear disaster in history.

Cheers,

Trev16

#56 property bear on 09.16.11 at 2:40 am

Harry Dent is in Australia. On arrival at Sydney Airport Harry’s first sentence was “Australian property is about to fall 50%”.

Boy, has that stirred up a hornets nest.

The Real Estate lobby and Bankers are going for Harry’s juggular. They want him hung for treason.

#57 wtf????? on 09.16.11 at 2:52 am

Wacko Liberal’s and other pinheads are at it again.

http://www.infowars.com/3-year-olds-branded-racist-homophobic-put-in-government-database/

#58 Not Fooled By Property Spruikers Hype on 09.16.11 at 3:17 am

Oh we can do better than that down her in Australia.

http://nfbpsh.blogspot.com/2011/09/bank-fire-sales-have-started-in.html

$1.5 million reduced to $799K with the plea to “Make Your Offer”

I think Canada & Australia are about to start a race to the bottom

#59 GTA Girl on 09.16.11 at 3:19 am

Before the summer I mentioned 8 homes in my upscale GTA subdivision for sale. Beginning of fall only one sold…for a ridiculous price of $1mill more than house 3doors away.,..but I’m hearing it may be a ‘funny’ incestuous purchase.

The remaining 7 have not sold. The Go-To-For-Fast-Sale Agent has now retained listings of 5 of them. All down from lofty $1.8 initial listing, to now all hovering around $1.1mil. We’re talking 70ftxunprecedented 350ft decked out McMansions

No bites. Nada

These would be the homes people would jump up to. Especially from the tight subdivisions in Woodbridge, Ont., w/side by side driveways, teeny yards that previous summers were being sold for stupid numbers like $900k…

The cartels are full on lying.

Yet developers are now scrambling to put up 30 story condos in farmers fields. One such baffling project is up for approval at Dufferin/MjrMac in Maple Ont. It looms over a golf course, built on top of an area that 8yrs ago was Toronto’s dump.

When you golf, you get a voucher for a free game, if the smell from the methane pipes is bad, that day.

Has everything gone insane?

#60 Utopia on 09.16.11 at 4:01 am

Day by day we come closer to the truth.

Toronto and the GTA are smoke. Getting “smoked” is a better metaphor perhaps. The biggest declines in real estate in this country have not been in Vancouver. Not yet anyway. They are all in the big happy, Canada’s biggest city. Soon enough the truth will be apparent to all.

Just days to go for an interim report. We await the verdict.

#61 I'm stupid on 09.16.11 at 5:18 am

Austerity in Europe will not work. We are seeing a suckers rally on wall street. Let me share an experience I had in Italy in 1993.

Air traffic controllers called a strike. Now strikes in Europe are nothing like they are here. No warnings, they drop everything and walk off the job. The controllers walked off turning the runway lights off and stranding an airliner in the air not caring what the outcome would be. Thankfully the airliner landed on a military base.

The point is that if the piigs don’t get assistance until they can inflate their way out of debt the people will simply refuse to pay.

I might be wrong, but all my holding are in companies that provide essential products and services. I also have 30% in cash to swoop when I think the time is right. I think we will soon see the buying opportunity of a life time.

#62 Rudolf on 09.16.11 at 6:26 am

To keep the hype alive – TREB has reported that its members have sold 7,542 properties in the month of August of 2011. It therefore claims that the GTA real estate market remains strong because sales outstripped listings by a healthy margin in comparison to August of 2010.

Considering that there are about 17,500 hustling agents around – and that by statistic 80% of all sales are being carried out by about 20% of the sales force, many real estate agents are starving since they not even sold one house.

The released sales figures are simply misleading, because not many people who are currently looking for a home realize how large the “GTA” actually is. The sales count does not only reflects sales in Toronto and its suburbs, but includes all purchase transactions from Burlington in the west to Newmarket in the north & Oshawa in the east.

#63 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 7:10 am

So one day you get smart, fake going broke, you down size, you buy a basic pick up and a small house, and try and get your old friends back, and you do. Especially if they think they have more labour credits than you do…

But it’s not the same as I have discovered, once you see them with the mask off, it can never go back on……

———–
What saved me is that they kept on talking about their boats, how many engineers they needed on board and I couldn’t care less. After a decade of faking interest, I burst.

#64 JO on 09.16.11 at 7:13 am

Garth, me and my wife are both great savers and live well within our means. We have been waiting to buy our first home for a while and plan to do so within 18 mts or so.

Of course, we are getting nothing on our savings, only to watch so many friends/acquaintances live wildly on debt.

I work in financial services for years and have recently started back into lending a few weeks ago. I used to lend money until 2005. So I have direct exposure to a lot of individuals living the debt bubble. I have seen first hand as a professional the destructive force of CMHC and Bank of Canada policies on our savers and middle class at large.

You have my email here if that person is interested in contacting me for some more info. I would need to remain anonymous if contacted as my job might be at risk if I were identified.
JO

#65 bigrider on 09.16.11 at 7:25 am

#1 -Joesph Trombetta.

Yup, you definitely Italian.

#66 TurnerNation on 09.16.11 at 7:39 am

The quantity of new condos in downtown Toronto is staggering. Here’s one brand new smaller building with already 36 units on MLS and most are tiny in size:

http://tinyurl.com/3hxyz9b

I wonder if they play with the stats. Say 1000 condos sold last month, and 1200 this month. Stats say a 20% increase in sales!! But what if inventory also increased from 10000 units, to 15000 units!?
Do the cartels report on inventory and unsold units, or only on sales numbers?

#67 yorel on 09.16.11 at 7:51 am

# 30 LH
So what do you do for entertainment when you aren’t borrowing your in-law’s cheap car, Mr. Millionaire? Fondle your money? Why bother to amass all that wealth you say you have? Your heirs will be very grateful.

#68 Lana on 09.16.11 at 7:54 am

Kai Nagata believes Canada’s TV news is dangerously sick. So too does Tim Knight. In an exclusive exchange at The Mark, the former TV journalists discuss whether the medium is worth saving.
http://www.themarknews.com/debates/12-tv-news-in-canada-is-it-worth-a-damn

#69 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 7:54 am

The remaining 7 have not sold. The Go-To-For-Fast-Sale Agent has now retained listings of 5 of them. All down from lofty $1.8 initial listing, to now all hovering around $1.1mil. We’re talking 70ftxunprecedented 350ft decked out McMansions

No bites. Nada
——–
So what are the foreclosure stats in the US again?

1/7 for 1million +
1/13 for less than 500K

Or something around there. Americans found out that 350K was the max most could afford. So the stuff under 350K has held up better than the more expensive stuff (depending on location of course).

Let’s see if the same thing happens in Canada.

#70 Guan-Di on 09.16.11 at 7:54 am

We have a serious perception problem in this country… why would anyone who has 20K even if it’s with De heer oranje korte broek or [email protected] feel worse off than someone who has no savings at all and carries 20K in credit card debt?

Also, Garth, you should suggest to your friend that he not just talk to shorts stuffers but also to those who invest their savings as well and find out why we don’t feel like chumps!

#71 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 8:05 am

You have my email here if that person is interested in contacting me for some more info. I would need to remain anonymous if contacted as my job might be at risk if I were identified.
JO
——–
That’s EXACTLY why the MSM can get away with its lack of coverage. The financial services industry and corporate Canada has us in a straightjacket.

Nobody will risk anything… until nothing is left to lose of course. So everybody complains, especially savers, but NO ONE is willing to sacrfice anything.

We’re all hoping someone else will do the dirty work while they sit and guard their stash.

#72 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 8:08 am

No bites. Nada

These would be the homes people would jump up to. Especially from the tight subdivisions in Woodbridge, Ont., w/side by side driveways, teeny yards that previous summers were being sold for stupid numbers like $900k…
———–
The only people left with the means to buy their mansions are people like smoking man… and unfortunately for them, he’s on a stealth mission.

#73 cliffard on 09.16.11 at 8:10 am

To mr Lacey #16 smoking man #9 not an oracle give me a break he’s been on top of the world launches with sultans in their palaces,golf with leaders in business in japan,china singapore malaysia during the boom he enjoyed excursions on private jets to pat pong street in bangkok. If those arnt the credentials of an oracle what is

#74 penpal on 09.16.11 at 8:13 am

@ # 26 Betty Danin
@ # 23 Onemorething

Bubbles don’t generally gently deflate – they burst! Oh, it might take some time and there may be a few pricing ‘plateaus’ or even short lived price ‘rallies’, but the overall direction remains down and down hard.

Prices return to the long term average or over-correct past this level to the downside. NO EXCEPTIONS!

No other major bubble, in any major asset class, has EVER gently deflated.

Even the people who understand that the RE show in Canada is now over, don’t want to admit that their primary asset is now about to lose substantial value.
So, in a way, even the RE bears are “talking their book”.

I think Garth, in view of his wrong-timed ( but ultimately correct) calls for the decline in RE, is reluctant to be anything but conservative in his projections for future price declines.

It’s not about copying/ mimicking /mirroring any other nation’s RE market declines. It is simply the market realities of a burst bubble.

That is the only message that is a core truth on this blog. You all seem to want to “sugar coat” this truth so it is somehow more palatable.

Depressions destroy optimists.

Onemorething has the right scenario (please reread EVERY word he / she has written @ comment #23 again and internalize it) and even he / she may be too optimistic.

Canada may not be in a depression, but our largest customers are or will soon be.

Good luck to all, you are going to need it.

#75 Mr. Lahey. Trailer Park Supervisor on 09.16.11 at 8:14 am

#42 and #49 Johny Bravo On the Boston cap rate of 20%, assuming the tenants continue to pay (they were supposed to be long term tenants) this still looks attractive. Regardless of whether it falls further, at 20% returns you are doing extremely well. As a long term investment whether or not someone wants to buy it in the near term is irrelevant. In a time horizon of 10 years, some serious compounding can occur. As to your comment on invoking panic among the masses, I agree and I was being sarcastic. Appreciate the feedback.

#76 Mr. Lahey. Trailer Park Supervisor on 09.16.11 at 8:17 am

#4 Square Ninja. The Chinese gov’t can do some very 1982-esque things. Was Orwell’s 1984 a sequel to 1982? :)

#77 Mr. Lahey. Trailer Park Supervisor on 09.16.11 at 8:31 am

#6 Bill Gable. It sounds like the shithawks have already arrived in the USA. I don’t blame your friend for wanting to leave gun totting Virginia. Thanks for sharing this with your fellow Turnerites.

#78 penpal on 09.16.11 at 8:50 am

@ # 53 wtf????

Great post, especially;

….”Have him walk out the door sober for a change.”

So true that it is sad.

#79 penpal on 09.16.11 at 8:58 am

@ # 66 Turner Nation

Good observation.

This is not reported or even considered, even though it will be the true determinant of future value.

This ignorance of market dynamics ensures that this will not end well.

#80 fancy_pants on 09.16.11 at 9:00 am

this won’t end well for whom? This correction is long awaited by many prudent folk. bring it on.

The only really pi$$er is that it won’t bring down the bastards who fueled this mess. Lucky for them this is the 21st century. In a not so long ago former day they would be burnt at the stake.

#81 Love this Blog on 09.16.11 at 9:12 am

Excellent piece Garth, maybe we are FINALLY starting the crumble…let’s hope so. In my delusional small Town of Watrous, Sask. many house sit on the market for 1 to 2 YEARS because they are priced too high. People here really are delusional……..and I guess don’t need to sell that badly, unless they can make a huge chunk. That’s Ok. Interest rate hikes can’t come soon enough for me…….lay the hammer down on some of these fickers.

Here’s a question oft asked, and rarely answered :
Will this end well?

#82 Aussie Roy on 09.16.11 at 9:26 am

Garth, I just had to comment on the fiction below.

Vancouver No Bubble

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2011/09/15/bc-vancouver-real-estate-bubble.html

“Our research shows few signs that speculators are overly active in the Vancouver market, which means we are unlikely to see a speculation-induced bust,” he said.

Clearly the above makes no sense.

Looking at rental yields the “known” revenue or rental return as per current asset price has been falling (rental yields are being compressed) in Van for many years. Classic bubble sign, all bubbled markets show this characteristic. The revenue generated by any investment is the known as the non speculative part, the cash flow. As we have no idea whether prices will go up or down the capital growth of an asset is the speculative component. Clearly it is price appreciation which is driving prices not rental yields, this market is clearly being driven by speculative demand.

………………………………………………………

“Even if the economy slows and employment slows, we expect to see individuals hold on to their homes, rather than sell them in a weaker market,” he said.

More wishful thinking, there are always reasons for people to sell whether its for family or employment reasons. It only takes a few sales in a soft market to pull house prices down within that area. Sure “you” may not sell but that house down the street affects your price on the way down just like on the way up.
Of course should prices not go up, or actually fall, many have to ask the question, if rental return doesnt cover the mortgage just why am I holding something which is costing me money, hardly an investment. Because it isn’t its speculation on never ending price appreciation.

……………………………………………………………….

“Price jumps that have received media attention have been in localized areas and we have not seen a region-wide price surge,” he said.

Again, if this market is not being driven by speculation of further price appreciation, then what drove prices, wages? rental yields?. If the historical house price drivers (wages etc) are no longer supporting prices, how can these prices be supported in the future, by what?, more speculation?.

…………………………………………………………………

That’s backed up the Canadian Real Estate Association’s monthly report, also issued on Thursday, that found a record 70 per cent of all local markets across the country are considered to be in balance.

Balanced based on what?.

Increasing wages, rising rental yields or just rising hormones.

……………………………………………………………….

Nothing wrong with a little speculation, but the trick is to know when are speculating.

Many greater fools have no idea, Hi BPOE.

#83 45north on 09.16.11 at 9:40 am

GTA Girl: The remaining 7 have not sold.

We’re talking 70ftxunprecedented 350ft decked out McMansions

No bites. Nada

The cartels are full on lying.

you mean the lot sizes are 70′ X 350′ ?

My sister and her husband owned a house near Highway 7 and Islington. There is a Chapters near the 400. Lots and lots of houses. You can walk down the streets but it’s hard to tell from the outside how much is owed.

#84 allister on 09.16.11 at 9:45 am

So the McLeans “journalist” is only looking for chump savers and only wants to hear from losers.

Its already predetermined that the writings will not include any persons who are savers and using the savings for income or capital gains. Doesn’t want to talk to anyone who rode the stock market up almost 100% since 2009 or bought gold and has made 75% in the last few years.

Another balanced journalist who doesn’t want to provide both sides of the story.

It’s disgusting and the main reason people are getting their info from independant internet writers.

I will stick with guys like Garth, Jim Pulava, Jim Sinclair, John Mauldin, Richard Russell, Martin Armstrong etc.

#85 kitchener1 on 09.16.11 at 9:58 am

Smoking man

Is on to something, however smart or stupid he profeses to be he does have one thing down.

Human nature and pyschology. Some people are born with it, most people learn from their mistakes– i take smoking man is in the second team as are the majority of us.

He just nailed the whole RE bubble in his post.

People want to be sucessfull and be recoginized, thats were the 1 million dollar starter homes come from, and were all that debt came from. Sheeple trying to recreate the lifestyle they see on TV shows and magazines because they were told that “they deserve it”.

#86 pjwlk on 09.16.11 at 10:07 am

Smoking Man: #6

“So one day you get smart, fake going broke, you down size, you buy a basic pick up and a small house, and try and get your old friends back, and you do. Especially if they think they have more labour credits than you do…”

Amen brother! I’ve always believe the best scenario is the one where people think you dont’ have much to your name. Nobody wants anything from you then.

When you live large it seems everyone, even your own family members, can start to resent you if you don’t “share the wealth” as it were. Oddly, the fact that they haven’t done a single thing with their own lives to better themselves doesn’t seem to enter their minds.

#87 Smoking Man on 09.16.11 at 10:15 am

Bill Gable on 09.15.11 at 10:17 pm
Good one tell us more, you just inspired me to do this.

Slightly modified song by the greatest Canadian that ever lived Mr Leonard Cohen

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their eyes wide shut.
Everybody knows the civil war is coming
Everybody knows the bad guys are toast
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows that the USA is sinking
Everybody knows the 911 commission lied
Everybody knows That Big Sis is watching
Everybody know she will be first to crack.

Everybody talking to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a long stem rose
Everybody knows

#88 timo on 09.16.11 at 10:19 am

#81 OrdinaryCitizen,

The fact is that real estate prices have been compounding by decent rates for over a decade and individuals who bought real estate early in this period have benefited.

true and that is the point. Incomes have not kept up because our economy has been driven by credit expansion without a corresponding rise in wages. Sooner or later debts will have to be paid .

#89 Brad Mitchell in Calgary on 09.16.11 at 10:25 am

Here’s a guy who understands why the U.S. is in so much trouble.
If rates go up even a few percentage points, they won’t have enough tax revenue to pay the interest on their debt!!!
Or you could ignore the facts out there and “don’t bet against America…”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLmD9TeUC54

#90 Hammer1 on 09.16.11 at 10:27 am

#44 Jimbo on 09.16.11 at 12:46 am
not to mention the $ 1 Trillion the Fed and the G8 just loaned (bwa hahahahahah) to European banks..see the link at #41 above ..thanks NLMV

#91 Dr.NickRiviera on 09.16.11 at 10:31 am

An example of falling prices in Edmonton… we sold our house in the South East this summer – listed at 359k and it sold for 339k. Very similar to this one (currently listed at 294k):

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11122669&PidKey=-1704068173

This one will likely sell for 290k or less!

#92 Dr.NickRiviera on 09.16.11 at 10:34 am

ps. We’re renting now, thanks to your advice Garth. Equity safely invested – we’ll see what happens…

#93 Hammer1 on 09.16.11 at 10:36 am

#9 Smoking Man on 09.15.11 at 10:22 pm
So you’re effectively in the wealth closet to your friends..funny , I guess…

#94 timo on 09.16.11 at 10:38 am

“Overall, the data indicate that a renewed downturn in consumer spending is as likely as not in the year ahead,” survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

“Even without a downturn, consumer spending will not be strong enough to enable the rapid job growth that is needed to offset reduced long-term expectations.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44548847

this will be a very interesting fall and winter.

#95 Echo on 09.16.11 at 10:47 am

#17 B(iggest) P(acific cesspool) O(n) E(arth)
(but that’s another subject and I took you on with the facts months ago as an ex-Vic/Van escapee (business climate, corruption, incessant rain, rarely seen sun, and more passive/aggressive people than I’ve ever witnessed in a suit, jeans, or Lulu Lemon.

Back on topic, re #17 up there:

Who’s paying you? lol I hope you’re not spewing your “facts” for free. Backhanded deals are a dime a dozen in Vancouver, whether it’s pumping a product or having a car rigged for an hour to pass an emissions test. Mary Poppins would have exposure. lol. All I’m sayin’ honey is this blog has millions of readers, but you know that already dontchya. You may as well let a pal in the biz take ya to lunch. ; ) Then we could call you a crook.

On the other hand, redemption is possible. It’s called coming out of denial you poor guy. That’s just sad. The good news is that you could sell your Real Estate, should you own some, and do the Investing 101 thing. Make lotsa da cash and buy in again years down the road, well if “The Big One” coming has left any roads intact.

Stop the madness please. There are innocents on here. Do you really want to help to destroy their financial lives for the sake of your ego? And what about coercing them to the land of no sun? That’s just cruel. : (

#96 X on 09.16.11 at 10:48 am

It is funny to see how people get excited about the increase in their net worth due to RE.

I would love to see a stat on how many people or what % of home owners actually use that increase in net worth to diversify their holdings or do something w the weath as opposed to simple let it sit idle in their non deductable, capital absorbing, yet ego boosting home….

#97 young & foolish on 09.16.11 at 11:02 am

Rise up all you righteous Gloomers & Doomers … lead the charge to cleanse society of all it’s follies.

In the meantime, mind your cash flow and remember:
a slowing economy leads to lower RE values and reduced corporate earnings …. do you know where your money is?

#98 Freedom 85 on 09.16.11 at 11:08 am

#85 – Allister
I will stick with guys like Garth, Jim Pulava, Jim Sinclair, John Mauldin, Richard Russell, Martin Armstrong etc.

Garth,

This poster has placed you in rarified air, Garth. The only trouble is these guys have been on the gold bandwagon for years. Heck, one of them (Jim Sinclair)owns a gold mining/royalty company and has been spot-on since 1999 about what’s happening in gold. Richard Russell has been writing since 1956 and is banging his hand on the table about buying gold.

Notice anything missing in your commentary yet?

#99 Daisy Mae on 09.16.11 at 11:10 am

43. Devils Advocate: “Rutland is simply a more “blue collar” neighbourhood. Nothing wrong with that.”

‘Rutland’ needs a name change.

#100 Daisy Mae on 09.16.11 at 11:24 am

45. Einsam Solo – “The one with gravel pit landscaping.”

Oh, you mean ‘Xeriscaping’ — the use of drought-tolerant native plants….as opposed to grass and the waste of precious water to keep it green, in our semi-arid Okanagan? We ARE referred to, across Canada, as ‘water hogs’ because of our waste…..

#101 househunter on 09.16.11 at 11:27 am

Vancouver is slowing but nothing is crashing. There is no correction in the making regardless of what people are wishing (me included). Interest rates will be STUCK like a little kid in mud. There are still multiple bids happening on the West side … and they are not all from China. The vancouver version of “cooling” is 2 offers instead of 8. This will implode some day and it will be uglier than hell. But the timing is way way down the road when Carney begins a series of rate hikes. You think he gonna do that in the next year and half? Doubt it. Not with the global turmoil happening. The ONLY drop in housing in Vancouver outside of i% will be a hard landing in China. If the consumers in US and Europe stop buying Chinese goods, then it will make things VERY interesting.

#102 Echo on 09.16.11 at 11:46 am

#17 BPCOE:

P.S. Before you go citing you little article up there know that it doesn’t change a thing. Why? Well, I’ll tell you:

1) Lending money is a BUSINESS. There are no bleeding hearts and no moral compasses, unless it’s private money, and it’s extremely rare to have either there as well.

2) The article was written by one of the biggest players on this front in BC and ON, the two markets with the most at stake. They’re a hub for 164 Credit Unions, including a Corporate portfolio. They have SO much to lose in the impending long-term downturn.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_1_Credit_Union

3) The references sited in the article are made by players with the same type of risk exposure. Rocket science, I know.

4) The article was published by the largest Conservative/Republican body in Canada, bless their hearts, love the front that’s full of great radio shows, tv shows, and warm fuzzy feelin’s. Even unbiased ones to balance things out sometimes. Ahhhh.

Media is mostly about immediate financial interests. There will be no “Gonzo” journalism except on blogs like Garth’s. He’ll get a few more readers via the article coming, but even that mag’s herd has blinders strapped on tight. Me, myself, and I ! We’re doin’ ok !

When you post articles like that you just look sillier, silly. If you believe them it’s sad (see earlier post), and if you don’t you’re a deceitful tool. (see previous post)

All in all let’s just be diligent. Nothing is going to stop the miseducation train for the purpose of immediate gain with zero ethics, but we can continue to respect Garth for his courage, kindness, generosity and huge daily effort for all who care to learn Economics and Investing 101, and of course benefit from. He’s saving lives and protecting entire futures if you care to pay attention. Lemme guess, um, no?

#103 Utopia on 09.16.11 at 11:46 am

Man, the posts are awesome today. Penpal, Aussie Roy, WTF, Moneta, Disciple and so many others. Nobody here is fooled anymore. Our hosts article seems to have triggered an outburst of disgust at how we are being manipulated by the media. Perhaps the medium was once the message as Marshall McLuhan suggested. But no more. We have collectively begun to reject the methods of raw, distorted information dissemination and started to think for ourselves again.

#104 maxx on 09.16.11 at 12:31 pm

“Bryan Yu, an economist with Central 1 Credit Union, said the median home price in the province will increase 6.8% to $417,000.”

Caught that one yesterday as well, Garth. With very few exceptions, the RE and lending cartel is simply a gigantic lie fabrication plant.

Anyone having taken a real estate agent course will have seen it first hand- the hubris and sense of self-importance are sickening. This lying should be legislated exactly as has been done for truth in advertizing. It should be considered illegal social engineering of the most pernicious sort.

Regardless of whether or not citizens should “know better” and fend for themselves in a “free market”, our governing elites should have been on the case a long while back and used the power they have to send a very clear message in order that these collective thugs be brought to heel.

Happily, it appears that irretrievable idiots are increasingly spread thinner on the ground. Some have bought the farm but the rest are now smartening up.

Disraeli and Twain got it in one with: “lies, damned lies and statistics”.

#105 Joeseph Q on 09.16.11 at 12:48 pm

Headline: “GTA home prices hit new high”

Contained within article: “Average house prices were down slightly across the GTA in August, to $451,663 from July’s average of $459,122”

I’m not sure how a massive monthly price drop indicates a new high.

This is the most glaring denial of facts that I’ve ever read. Garth, you’ve got to bring this to people’s attention.

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/1054605–gta-home-prices-hit-new-high?bn=1

#106 Kevin in Winnipeg on 09.16.11 at 12:57 pm

Could Canada see a deeper recession than in 2008? I think it is possible. Record debt, possible housing correction, US protectionism and a global debt crisis all point to it.

No one told home buyers in Winnipeg. The market is still humming.

#107 Utopia on 09.16.11 at 1:11 pm

#6 Bill Gable said…..

“This man is a prototypical American…and today he said in hushed tones…..”They have lost control and we all know what’s coming….and frankly, I am scared….”.
——————————————-

OK. That was kind of a “holy shit” moment for me Bill. I know quite a few people too and have been getting the same vibe. Something big may be about to hit the fan and it is not covered in chocolate fudge and sweet vanilla flakes. This is seriously getting to be ugly-time.

I just don’t know what it is yet. Need more info.

#108 penpal on 09.16.11 at 1:14 pm

@ #80 fancy_pants

Easy there fella / lady.

Whilst I couldn’t agree more with your analysis nor fitting “dark-ages” punishment, try not to state it quite so clearly. Scares the weak-kned people on this blog.

The folks on this blog hate any opinion of that intensity (or veracity) – its un-Canadian, don’t ya know?

I personally think it scares them to see someone speak the truth as they fear (or know) they don’t possess that capability themselves.

I’m with Onemorething on this this subject, tme to depart Canada if one can.

#109 not asian on 09.16.11 at 1:19 pm

I know a few big time investors are putting their money in Las Vegas. They are getting a really high return from rents and the real estate is dirt cheap. They say “people still have to live somewhere” Americans don’t want to buy, but they’ll pay a fair rent. $40,000 for a price of a decent condo which someone else will pay off for you in a few years. This sounds too good to be true.

#110 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.16.11 at 1:23 pm

I’ve finally decided to get rid of my old starter home:
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=11126693&PidKey=-89657636

#111 Smoking Man on 09.16.11 at 1:27 pm

#40 debtified on 09.16.11 at 12:38 am
Got so sucked into YLO, Rummors at the bar always get you in trouble, sticking with BatMan ears….

#36 Smoking Man’s son on 09.16.11 at 12:13 am
trying to figure which one of many excursions into the dark side you where consived. Is your mom cute?

#16 Mr. Lahey, Trailer Park Supervisor Extraordinaire on
Mr. Lahey You only achive wisdom the day you realize you don’t know sqwat
and I am too an Oracle :)

#112 Smoking Man on 09.16.11 at 1:29 pm

#10 Beach Girl on 09.15.11 at 10:31 pm

Suck it up, I have one everyday, My coffee machine is timed for 5:45 and also lay out 3 tylonal next to my cup.

#113 GTA Girl on 09.16.11 at 1:38 pm

Someone mentioned that just because $1mill homes arent selling is not a downturn.

Having done analysis of what inventory has moved prior to the spring, I can say the microcosm that I live in shows that the market has stalled.

Quality product is just that, Quality. We aren’t talking a 40ft frontage w/finished basement in a sea of exact cookie cutters. and a seller who thinks his marble tiles makes his $500k Builder bought house into a $950k glory hole.

I am seeing above norm lot sizes w/anchor village core, walkable streets to galleries, cafe’s restaurant. Homes that people line up to buy in a normal market. They are not selling. These homes were built for close to $900k (w/landscaping pools etc) 6-8yrs ago. They are asking $1.1mill.

This is a mild mark up in comparison to the crap builders have completed since for $800k in last few years.

There is no Hot sellers market. Perhaps a few over-offers made by psychopaths in Leaside, that the cartel can trot out.

If these homes can’t with stand a downturn, just based on lot size/location…how the hell will the cookie cutters & concrete holes in the sky?

#114 Blacksheep on 09.16.11 at 1:42 pm

Brad #90,

“If rates go up even a few percentage points, they won’t have enough tax revenue to pay the interest on their debt!!!”

Brad,

The US will never default on debts in US dollars, unless they choose to.

The amount of tax revenue a SOVEREIGN takes in is almost irrelevant other than public perception, due the ability to print, at will. It will cause massive inflation,
(tax on any one holding) but they will just continue buying their own bonds.

The jig is up, when dollars are no longer accepted for
the purchase of oil.

This has given the USA a living standard above most other Western counties for 40 yrs.

Even though the US fiat pool is global, the poisoning via inflation is ensuring it’s demise, with a global SDR or whatever being prepped in the wings.

Imagine the consequences if the tax slaves new, that Sovereign Gov’s don’t need your dollars,(Can, included) just the illusion of demand, created buy taxation.

Check out MMT. It’s NOT a theory, links:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7vO6PhIwo8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBP7ROp2s4o

take care
Blacksheep

#115 bigrider on 09.16.11 at 1:47 pm

Watching the show ” In tune with real estate” on Rogers T.V . Rav Toor hosr and his guest Steve Politis.

Talking up the guaranteed benefit of investing at the construction stage of a condominium project. “double your money in 4 years..guaranteed” According to them people redeeming their stock market investments to invest in new condo developments . Also went on to say Toronto is “cheap, cheap cheap”

Pump pump pump.

#116 GTA Girl on 09.16.11 at 1:47 pm

BTW…I bought from a reliable quality builder on a very large lot, 8 yrs ago for $500k (which was thought a crazy price to pay from a builder).

But seeing the lot size, distance from a small village, kids walk to school, hubby and I walk to restaurants…it seemed a good sound purchase for long term.

It was when the privately owned lots (same size or smaller than mine) were built. Wow, the money poured in. One sold in 2010 for $2mill. One custom home 2 doors down sold for $1.4.

Why don’t I sell? because I have a sound financial investment portfolio, my mortgage is barely nothing. And I honestly enjoy where I live and the house I live.

The joke is…we have the shack among mansions.

#117 Rural Rick on 09.16.11 at 2:11 pm

Smokin Man be careful with the tylenol alcohol it can kill your liver fast. Try aspirin if you can. I enjoy your comments, hate to loose you buddy.

#118 lotusland on 09.16.11 at 2:18 pm

I have been watching and experiencing the Vancouver Madness first hand. We have been living in a “Gold Rush Mentality”, especially on the West Side of Vancouver.

I currently rent … too expensive to buy. I pay cheap rent, too. Perhaps it was luck but I got a nice place in Kerrsidale/Southlands this summer after being renovicted from the Prime Kits Location I had been living in for years.

What I see in the mainstream news just doesn’t jive with what I am witnessing right now in the neighborhoods of Kits, Kerrisdale, Point Grey and Arbutus. I see parks and boulevards unkempt and minimally maintained. “price reduced” signs on houses that have been sitting on the market for months. There is definitely a lot of construction going on, old beautiful houses are being taken down to put up giant pieces of glittering crap that take away from the unique character of the City. The Real Estate activity here in Vancouver is devaluing our lifestyle and that doesn’t seem to be a quantifiable asset to the media, but it is plainly obvious to anyone who has lived here long enough. The number of abandoned houses on the West Side is growing, presumably bought by out-of -town investors who are just parking their money here.

When driving to work, I have been using the same “for sale ” signs swaying in the breeze on SW Marine Drive to tell me if the wind is blowing from the West (good weather) or from the East (storms a-coming) for the past several months.

When I read the CBC report, I simply didn’t believe it.

The Emperor Has No Clothes

#119 City Slicker on 09.16.11 at 2:21 pm

Guess what I’m trying to say is never give your best buds the opportunity to take off the mask by out doing them, you won’t like what you will see, accumulate your wealth in stealth and you will have it all………Very Hard to do…………

PS love the feed back from all off you weather good or bad:) Read em all
———————————————————-
Smoking Man, makes perfect sense to me. When you’re at the top people will just want to hammer you down, including siblings and friends.
You have success in your life, then be prepared to make a few false friends and your other friends will just hate you out of jealousy and envy. Afterall, the story of all humanity boils down to pride and ego. And our ego is relative to how others are doing. We feel good about ourselves when others are squished down and feel bad about ourselves then others are elevated up – to put it simply.
You’re right, it’s tough to enjoy wealth and keep your friends in check. Somtimes it’s best to stay hush about things.

#120 Peter Framton portfolio on 09.16.11 at 2:22 pm

Ohhhh Garrthhh please

I wonder how your feeling
There’s ringing in my ears
And no one to relate to ‘cept the sea
Who can I belive in
I’m kneeling on the floor
There has to be a force who do I phone
The stars are out and shinning, but all I really want to know…
Oh won’t you show me the way
I want you …show me the way
Well, I can see no reason
You living on your nerves
When someone drops a cup and I submerge
I’m swimming in a circle
I feel I’m going down
There has to be a fool to play my part
Well someone thought of healing, but all I really want to know…
Oh won’t you show me the way (everyday)
I want you …show me the way
I want you day after day
I wonder if I’m dreaming
I feel so unashamed
I can’t belive this is happening to me
I watch you when you’re sleeping,and then I want to take your love
Oh won’t you show me the way$
Show me the honey Hun Hun
Show me the way to smokey town
Where the streets have my show name
And pigs can fly on show me the way

And we were doing so well today… — Garth

#121 City Slicker on 09.16.11 at 2:27 pm

And nice bounce by gold today. Likely cause the world is realizing Greece needs to be bailed out or collapse is imminent. More stim = more money printing = gold up!

#122 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 2:42 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2011/09/15/toronto-condo-story.html
——-
You know the bubble just popped when the frauds get exposed.

#123 Utopia on 09.16.11 at 2:45 pm

#114 GTA Girl asked….

“If these homes can’t withstand a downturn, just based on lot-size/location…how the hell will the cookie cutters & concrete holes in the sky?”
———————————————–
I think Moneta answered that question already this morning back at post #69. She has already suggested to us that foreclosure rates have been much higher for the loftier and pricier property in the USA.

Her comment is right in line with the historical record for R/E downturns and it tells us that the biggest price declines typically are discovered in the high end markets. Same goes for the larger number of foreclosures and repossessions.

In a credit contraction, thinking small is always a better bet. Your losses will be lower on a percentage basis.

Perhaps Moneta has a link to the US data she refers too.

#124 Mr. Lahey. Trailer Park Supervisor on 09.16.11 at 3:10 pm

Smoking Man. Here is one for you to help you understand the jealousy of friends. “It is not enough to succeed, others must fail.” I believe that one can be attributed to Oscar Wilde.

#125 timo on 09.16.11 at 3:13 pm

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/09/everythings-okay-western-central-banks.html

Yep, once again the Central Banks come running to the rescue of the pestilential bankers who continue in their parasitical role of leeches and ticks, sucking the life blood out of the financial system whenever their own greed and stupidity ensnares them in a web from which they are unable to extricate themselves.

“HELP! HELP! We might fail and take you all down with us UNLESS…”

The story never does seem to change does it? Free markets socializing the debts onto the many and extracting profits for the few. Unfortunate that elections might have an impact on a lifetime of servitude this creates. Only problem is that the political system is bought and paid for.

what a circus,bring in the clowns.

#126 Abitibi Doug on 09.16.11 at 3:14 pm

So, as Garth predicted, the inevitable is happening as the chickens come home to roost. I’ll just get a comfortable chair, a bag of popcorn, a drink, and watch the show unfold. It makes you wonder, why didn’t more people sell and take their profits when the market was stronger?
Now for a psychic prediction. There’s still a lot of turbulence in stock markets presently, but when most people (including the baby boomers) realize housing doesn’t keep going up forever won’t that mean more money flowing into equity investments?

#127 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 3:21 pm

Perhaps Moneta has a link to the US data she refers too.
——-
It’s everywhere.

http://www.trexglobal.com/property-management/real-estate-news/mcmansion-foreclosure-rate-doubles-time-to-buy-a-dream-house

“More and more luxury homeowners are turning to short sales as the default rate for homeowners with more than $1 million mortgage is almost double of the US rate.”

“Payments on about 12% of mortgages exceeding $1 million were 90 days or more overdue in September, compared with 6.3% on loans less than $250,000”

#128 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 3:22 pm

http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/story_2nd.php?story_id=128216600543594000

“Recent state and national statistics also reveal a counterintuitive trend — affluent homeowners are going into foreclosure lately at a higher rate than others”

#129 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 3:25 pm

The joke is…we have the shack among mansions.
——–
What if all the mansions go empty and you are the only one left mowing everyone’s laws. Is that a risk?

#130 Utopia on 09.16.11 at 3:43 pm

Thanks Moneta.

#131 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.16.11 at 3:45 pm

#91 Hammer1 — Hi there, Hammer1. Wanna lend me a trillion (or more) of F’s fuuny money? I can sure put it to good use out here on the left coast!

BTW, enjoyed the trip in a UFO a coupla days ago, noting the new changes in borders over Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. Plenty of new changes coming as well!

#115 Blacksheep — “. . . due the ability to print, at will.” — G’day Blacksheep.

Question — If govts. can print at will, then why are PIIGS, the UK etc., being bailed out, who is bailing them out and why are there ‘austerity measures’ being picked up and used in as many places as possible?

The middle- and poor-classes are being raked over the coals, no doubt of that but who is actually benefiting from all this George Orwell doublespeak BS? Because someone is making huge profits from this (I won’t say who, but most of you know).

There is no need at all for this, save for the normal cycle change.

#132 Cookie Monster on 09.16.11 at 3:50 pm

#126 timo on 09.16.11 at 3:13 pm
Free markets socializing the debts onto the many and extracting profits for the few.
—–
Close but not quite. I think you meant to say “Government intervention in markets socializing the debts onto the many while enforcing profits for the few.” would be more accurate. You’re welcome.

Speaking of idiot governments, Peter Schiff testified in front of the US congress this past Tuesday and it’s must see video, also check out his debate “Global Leadership Forum — 2010” Bull versus Bear, very good arguments by Peter with multiple torpedoes on target to sink the bull case. It’s bull alright.

http://www.youtube.com/user/SchiffReport?ob=5#p/a/f/0/Q6DRXk9Ufv4

#133 GTA Girl on 09.16.11 at 4:03 pm

To 45North Kleinburg Ontario yes, 70/350ft lots. Eached spaced 12 ft apart. gems.

#134 penpal on 09.16.11 at 4:08 pm

@ # 126 timo

The clowns are already running the circus if you didn’t happen to notice.

#135 HouseBuster on 09.16.11 at 4:10 pm

It is here. The crash. You are delusional if you think house prices will keep going up indefinitely.

It isn’t good news but use the information and act accordingly.

#136 S on 09.16.11 at 4:10 pm

With regards to comment # 9: “…excursions on private jets to Pat Pong street in Bangkok by night…” I would suggest that “business leaders” able to fly private aircraft would be able to afford something more classy than five dollar child prostitutes in Thailand. Unless, of course, the millionaires went there to shop for counterfeit Rolexes. In which case I apologize in advance for my scepticism.

#137 Beach Girl on 09.16.11 at 4:15 pm

#10 Beach Girl on 09.15.11 at 10:31 pm

Suck it up, I have one everyday, My coffee machine is timed for 5:45 and also lay out 3 tylonal next to my cup.

SO MUCH FUN BEING HERE.

#88 Smoking Man

You actually are my hero. I don’t feel F’ed at all after listening to you. It is good for my self-esteem, thanks. Ya, kinda better today. My young basement tenants dwellers rolled up a fat boy. I kinda am a fitness freak. But an occasional drunk. Never was into anything one had to inhale. I might get liberated.

Smoking Man you truly are an inspiration. But get drunk and F the Tylenol. That is straight Dialysis shit.

#121 Peter Frampton Portfolio

He sucks and any one who cares for his drivel, is sexually compromised. Oh, politically incorrect. Cannot get any gayer than that.

Really happy, don’t know why.

#138 GTA Girl on 09.16.11 at 4:17 pm

Moneta:

No, as Garth will tell you. we aren’t Arizona nor Vegas. And having a home close to amenities, strong community, and anchor attractions will always have a market, for people finding a good deal.

Trust me, I’d rather buy a home finished, landscaped in a good location at a fair decent price then a Developer priced new build in a farmer’s field hours from a city, or a glass falling condo and be at the whims of a developer.

But..it takes doing homework, research and ability to make cool headed decisions.

#139 penpal on 09.16.11 at 4:21 pm

@ # 128 Moneta

Incredible.

The math is pretty scary;

1. 12% or roughly 1 in 8 homes with a $ 1 million or larger mortgage are almost irretrievably delinquent.
(after 90 days late, the interest and penalties are unaffordable to catch up = certain foreclosure)

2. 6.5% or roughly 1 in 15 homes with a $ 250,000 or less mortgage are almost irretrievably delinquent.

Please note;

a) this is in a currently relatively prosperous place, and;

b) this does not include other potential foreclosure candidates that are somewhere between 1 and 89 days delinquent, and;

c) the numbers (ratios) of just these 90 day plus delinquencies are enough to bankrupt any financial institution whose losses would mirror these average rates of delinquencies.

#140 Edmonton Guy on 09.16.11 at 4:39 pm

In Edmonton here the foreclosure have risen consistantly every month in the last 4 years. Many properties that would have fetched over $200,000 are closer to $100,000! We haven’t seen this prices since 2003. Many fixure uppers from $99,000! http://www.mls.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?&PropertyId=11101443&PidKey=406128966

#141 King Bubbles on 09.16.11 at 4:40 pm

@ #107

But Kevin, it’s different in Winnipeg ;-)

#142 Publius Enigma on 09.16.11 at 4:41 pm

**#129 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 3:22 pm
http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/story_2nd.php?story_id=128216600543594000

“Recent state and national statistics also reveal a counterintuitive trend — affluent homeowners are going into foreclosure lately at a higher rate than others”**

Hardly counterintuitive, as the author suggests.

The rich did not get to be rich by being stupid.

For an affluent owner who used leverage to purchase, continuing to pour money into an asset which is continually declining in value is financial insanity. In this regard, it simply makes better financial sense to default.

The “rich” think about things fundamentally differently than the “poor”. It’s hardly that binary, but it’s useful to think about it that way. Lawrence Roberts had further insight on this in his book about the American bubble. To paraphrase, the rich viewed housing price appreciation as adding to their net worth. The poor viewed appreciation as free money to spend.

#143 Stevenson on 09.16.11 at 4:59 pm

Oh common Garth, again you are being “selective” on your content. You selected a quote from the globe starting with “Toronto’s hot housing market may be showing the first signs of cooling…..” but it ends with…

“The wild card in all of this is the buyers.”

He hasn’t seen signs of a cool down.

“I haven’t sensed yet that the consumer has lost confidence”

Now this is REAL NEWS and whats happening. It’s too early to tell if there is anything happening so lets not fuss too much about it.

It’s “come on, Garth” or the colloquial, “C’mon Garth.” ‘Common’ is the opposite of unique. The last quote in the story is from a realtor, no? What did you expect him to say? Something unique? — Garth

#144 Waterloo Resident on 09.16.11 at 5:03 pm

Garth, I don’t know where you get your idea that prices in Toronto are falling when all I see are home prices going up and up and up each week.

Are you sure you live in Toronto?

I have a sneaking suspicion that you are really wrong about the direction of home prices, especially here in Toronto where home prices are SHOOTING TO THE MOON in prices.

For example, read these posts and see for yourself:

====
” Bidding war drives selling price of Bloor West home up $71,000 ”
days on the market = 7
(bought for $690,000 in 2008, listed for $899,000,
bidding war drove up price to $970,000):

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/done-deals/bidding-war-drives-selling-price-of-bloor-west-home-up-71000/article2167122/

====
” High Park homes draws $351,000 over asking. ”
days on the market = 4
(Asking price $1,299,000, bidding war drove up the price to $1,650,000 ):

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/done-deals/high-park-homes-draws-351000-over-asking/article2157942/

===
” Busy street location, but upgrades draw $76,000 premium ”
days on the market = 7

( Previous selling prices:
2006 = $318,000
2008 = $547,000
Asking price = $699,000
Bidding war drives up the price to = $775,000

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/done-deals/busy-street-location-but-upgrades-draw-76000-premium/article2167387/

Another bidding frenzy example in T.O., house sells at $76,000 over list in just 6 days:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/done-deals/76000-premium-edges-out-six-other-offers/article2167398/

From what I can see, home prices in Toronto are heading up at a rate of about 20% per year !
Now just TRY GETTING 20% PER YEAR FROM BONDS —- YOU CANNOT !
That is why smart people are buying homes and getting rich in the process
— Enough said.

The smart people are the ones selling. Obviously does not include you. — Garth

#145 Waterloo Resident on 09.16.11 at 5:06 pm

yes, I know that RIM is cutting jobs, but all of those jobs will be OUTSIDE of the K-W area.

We have bidding wars on homes here in Waterloo, a 3-bedroom house that was listed here on Exmoor Street for $347,000 sold two weeks later for $432,000 !!!

Its just crazy how home prices in Waterloo are rising just like Toronto, I kid you not !

#146 Mr. Lahey on 09.16.11 at 5:12 pm

#16 Mr. Lahey, Trailer Park Supervisor Extraordinaire on
Mr. Lahey You only achive wisdom the day you realize you don’t know sqwat

When pray tell, did you have this moment of self awareness?

#147 jess on 09.16.11 at 5:15 pm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/28/us-usa-shell-companies-idUSTRE75R20Z20110628

…”The Secretary of State’s Securities Division has issued a cease and desist order to a Wyoming company doing business in Nevada to stop selling shell corporations registered with his office because it is a securities violation. Secretary of State Ross Miller says the sale of Nevada corporations and limited liability companies (LLCs) includes the sale of stocks or shares, and is therefore regulated by Nevada’s securities statutes and regulations.”

variations of the scheme go back 1998

Not all books are created equal
The IRS investigation was assisted by the group’s prolific Internet promotion and the publication of Reed’s own book, “Bulletproof Asset Protection.”

http://www.justice.gov/usao/nv/press/july2011/reed_07082011.htm

http://www.nevadanewsbureau.com/2011/09/10/nevada-securities-division-issues-cease-and-desist-to-wyoming-company/

Don’t Fall Prey to the 2011 Dirty Dozen Tax Scam

IR-2011-39, April 7, 2011
http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=238262,00.html

#148 Live Under Your Means on 09.16.11 at 5:19 pm

#68 Lana on 09.16.11 at 7:54 am
Kai Nagata believes Canada’s TV news is dangerously sick. So too does Tim Knight. In an exclusive exchange at The Mark, the former TV journalists discuss whether the medium is worth saving.
http://www.themarknews.com/debates/12-tv-news-in-canada-is-it-worth-a-damn

…………….

Thanks for posting the above Lana. The other day I read an article by Kai in The Tyee –

Why concentrated media ownership is great for corporate profits, dangerous for democracy. Part one of three.

Nagatahttp://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2011/09/12/Nagata_Quebec_Warning/?utm_source=mondayheadlines&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=120911

………….

Am very discouraged about what has become of the MSM in Canada, US and elsewhere. Was going to post the link above when I read it, but believed I’d be accused of being a pinko, leftist by many of the Libertarians on this blog as it was posted in the Tyee.

#149 this is wonderland on 09.16.11 at 5:24 pm

Corruption in the building industry you say? Come on!! Not in Canada….

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/09/14/transport-quebec-corruption.html

#150 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 5:26 pm

GTA Girl on 09.16.11 at 4:17 pm
Moneta:

No, as Garth will tell you. we aren’t Arizona nor Vegas
————–
When I moved to Ottawa, I chose a house <350K because of the US experience. Most onwers around us are civil servants with a paid off house. Walking distance from all amenities. A lot of choice in buses for the kids (I'm going to be a witch with a "b" and not buy them a car!).

I think this my area will hold up somewhat but who really knows how many condos they own and what they've done with the equity? Lots of RVs around.

It just seems like people in the 1 million house should be in the 500-600K. Those in the 500-600K should be in the 300K and those in the 300K should be in the 150-250K.

#151 jess on 09.16.11 at 5:32 pm

copycat

greek man sets himself on fire at a bank
http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/slideshow?articleId=USRTR2REV6&slide=3#a=3

#152 Live Under Your Means on 09.16.11 at 5:33 pm

As a followup to my previous post, I’d highly recommend the book ‘Into the Buzzsaw’ – Leading Journalists Expose The Myth of a Free Press. ISBN 1-57392-972-7

#153 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 5:36 pm

140penpal on 09.16.11 at 4:21 pm
——-
Something tells me Cdn banks and CMHC are not using 10% or even 5% as a delinquency rate in their stress tests.

#154 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 5:39 pm

Publius Enigma on 09.16.11 at 4:41 pm
**#129 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 3:22 pm
http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/story_2nd.php?story_id=128216600543594000

“Recent state and national statistics also reveal a counterintuitive trend — affluent homeowners are going into foreclosure lately at a higher rate than others”**

Hardly counterintuitive, as the author suggests
————-
For most of us here it’s intuitive but for most of the MSM it’s counterintuitive. LOL!

#155 Blacksheep on 09.16.11 at 5:40 pm

Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad # 132,

#115 Blacksheep — “. . . due the ability to print, at will.” — G’day Blacksheep.

“Question — If govts. can print at will, then why are PIIGS, the UK etc., being bailed out, who is bailing them out and why are there ‘austerity measures’ being picked up and used in as many places as possible?”
———————————————————
Good day, Nostradamus,

My bad, I should Have said a Sovereign’s Gov’s in CONTROL of their OWN CURRENCY.

This is why the PIIGS are in trouble.
They no longer control sovereign currencies and thus, can’t print.

There is talk of a Euro bonds to bail them out.
Trouble is Germany cannot, nor should they have to, handle the Piigs collective debt.

Germany may being willing to try bailing them out, but the control sacrificed by the Piigs would be to great.

The Piig’s would be better of flipping every one the bird, Ala Iceland, then go back to a sovereign currency.

China maybe? They got lots O US bucks, sitting around losing value.

The UK is in control of it’s currency, so it CAN print.
So why doesn’t the UK just print, instead of impose austerity?

The same reason the US is finally being constrained,
after the loss of their AAA credit rating.

The world is watching Gov’s and tracking how much
tax VS spend. This is public perception I mentioned.

Thanks to the Politicians lack of discipline and a desire to be reelected, most Sovereigns have bin printing for years, and it’s finally catching up with them, inflation/risk wise.

Pretty funny, the Fed comes riding in on a white horse,
guns a blazing, to save the Euro, problem is their shooting blanks, as their debts are as bad as every one Else.

We have reached global debt saturation. Nothing left to do but print baby, baby print.

Mean while Garth and other are calling a top in gold,
makes me laugh :)

take care
Blacksheep

#156 timo on 09.16.11 at 5:46 pm

http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2011/09/16/2011-09-16_mayor_bloomberg_predicts_riots_in_the_streets_if_economy_doesnt_create_more_jobs.html

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=2f8

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/redux-house-prices-and-income-growth-canadabigger-and-better

#145 Waterloo Resident

do you see wages SHOOTING TO THE MOON? Frenzied speculation is driving the buying not rational thought.

#157 Moneta on 09.16.11 at 5:47 pm

I think this my area will hold up somewhat but who really knows how many condos they own and what they’ve done with the equity? Lots of RVs around.
———
When I moved here from the West Island, I felt relieved. People seemed more down to earth. But over the last year houses on our street have sold 25% over what we paid for ours. And now homeowners are starting to splurge as many more are going for the unistone which costs a fortune in Ottawa because apparently it’s shipped from Montreal.

#158 TripleNet on 09.16.11 at 5:58 pm

Mr. Lahey are you drunk again?
A 20% capitalization rate?
I think Randy put something in your whiskey.
You’re talking stupid again.

#159 DoomedinSask on 09.16.11 at 6:08 pm

How do you tell how long a listing has been up on MLS and also if it has been relisted?

#160 Just(not)AnotherSheeple on 09.16.11 at 6:27 pm

The TREB stats for the first two weeks of September are out – http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/market_news/release_market_updates/news2011/nr_mid_month_0911.htm

And a little stats for the condo sales for Toronto proper (416) – the coming “Condogeddon”

Jan.2011:
first 2 weeks – 292 units – down 12% – $ 333,558 Av. price
whole month – 805 units – down 14% – $ 327,868 Av. price
Feb.2011:
first 2 weeks – 612 units – down 6% – $ 359,775 Av. price
whole month – 1158 units – down 10% – $ 355,615 Av. price
Mar.2011:
first 2 weeks – 703 units – up 1% – $ 352,057 Av. price
whole month – 1645 units – down 4% – $ 352,320 Av. price
Apr.2011:
first 2 weeks – 683 units – down 11% – $ 351,596 Av. price
whole month – 1427 units – down 20% – $ 351,763 Av. price
May 2011:
first 2 weeks – 684 units – down 12% – $ 356,452 Av. price
whole month – 1575 units – up 3% – $ 355,347 Av. price
June 2011:
first 2 weeks – 788 units – up 13% – $ 347,472 Av. price
whole month – 1746 units – up 22% – $ 358,881 Av. price
July 2011:
first 2 weeks – 668 units – up 50% – $ 351,040 Av. price
whole month – 1452 units – up 32% – $ 353,189 Av.price
Aug.2011:
first 2 weeks – 601 units – up 23% – $ 355,573 Av. price
whole month – 1393 units – up 24% – $ 364,437 Av.price
Sep.2011:
first 2 weeks – 583 units – up 31% – $ 336,745 Av. price

#161 Patiently Waiting on 09.16.11 at 6:47 pm

It’s about time someone in the MSM writes a story on how the responsible savers have been sacrificed at the alter with near ZIRP, QE1, QE2, Gov’t bailouts, stimulus spending etc. . . all in order to bail out the irresponsible “got to have it now as long as I can make the payments” debt junkies of this country. The unfortunate problem is that there are many more of the debt junkies than the rest of us, and these F__ktards have become the new “Too Big To Fail”.
Rant Off . . .

#162 Off-Gridder on 09.16.11 at 6:49 pm

Hi Garth! I’ll be writing about our case tonight while my boyfriend drives semi for the night shift. Hopefully we still get a shot! :D We are one of the prudent young couples (25 & 28 yrs old) who refuse to buy. Working on getting enough money together to buy outright one day. People who visit us think we are poor and yet we have very little debt in comparison to them. (They owe $400,000 + while we owe $6500 @ 0% on our truck. Which is for sale for $15,900 and we have enough money $$ to pay it off but whats the point at 0%) Tty soon. If nothing else you should get a good laugh.

#163 Tkid on 09.16.11 at 6:52 pm

Do I feel like a chump or that I’m subsidising the spendthrifts? I’ve already written off every penny I have been forced to pay into CPP as only a chump would think the CPP and OAS will still be there 20 years from now when I’m due to retire. No, I think the chumps are those who have budgeted nothing for retirement, and I have no intention of contributing to yet another retirement scheme proposed by politicians pandering to the ‘hit their Golden Retirement with a mortgage’ set.

Do I think I am subsidising the spendthrifts? In terms of the infrastructure of the country, the answer is yes. Do I think I am subsidising the spendthrifts themselves? No. My personal finances are my concern, and their personal finances are theirs. But am I worried that Ontario will not be able to have bridges fixed, etc.

#164 Smoking man on 09.16.11 at 7:14 pm

Next post risk vs reward
Not tonight. To zoolood at the center bar a senica casino listing to a band do buffit lead zep. Stons

But jack my caribian stud poker bud just robbed a bank. He will be part of story kids

#165 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.16.11 at 7:29 pm


#156 Blacksheep — “China maybe? They got lots O US bucks, sitting around losing value.”

Indeed. Further to last night’s link, seems China is dumping US Treasuries while holding onto their money. So bailout from China for PIIGS, or buying the US up and turning it into China v2.0?
*
“By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” — John Maynard Keynes
*
3:31 clip The Black Panthers have never gone away, just kept a low profile until now; Greenspan Inflation killing SS. Yes, the dreaded word hyperinflation is mentioned (a politically-motivated event); Broad Based L’economy has knives all over in it; Are We Solvent, or are we sinking? “The problem is debt. Adding more debt will not solve that problem.” wrh.com; Unemployed Man selling everything.

Unemployment “The actual unemployment rate is about 22% and bullshitting us about the real figures is one reason we are plucking chickens and warming up the tar!” wrh.com.

Greece “One has to wonder if one of the conditions of the pact had to do with the Israeli assurance that American taxpayers would bail Greece out of its current financial problems.” wrh.com, and “With Turkey threatening naval action against Israel, the Jewish state and Greece have invoked a mutual defense pact they signed without publicity only 12 days ago.”; Obummer “Translation: “Iran is a threat to Israel’s nuclear monopoly.” wrh.com. Toss in Egypt.

ACLU O’bomba worse than dubya (is that possible?); Sept. 17, 2011 Ottawa Truth Seekers march fur new 9-11 info. Start making this stuff public knowledge; Al (GS) Gore “Would you sell the White House for a half billion?” wrh.com; Missing Materials Three guesses who might have it, and the first two don’t count; Bovine Excrometer Explodes “Iran’s expansionist plans?” wrh.com; Libya Scramble on to steal all their assets, so the heat can be turned up by a major global economic slump at the same time; Palestine Full membership vote wanted, and quite right too; NFL Boycott the Not For Long; Eisenhower David, grandson of Dwight, re-issues his gramps’ warning.

Media Stupidity “Speaking of stupidity, the author of this piece, Eric Alterman, has either not read or chooses to ignore the data coming out of CERN that proves the sun controls the climate here on Earth. I suspect the latter since the article is closed for commenting.” wrh.com and CC is a normal part of the cycle, human-caused is a bloody joke; Ingelligence Leak Or it could have been deliberately left out for someone to print, thereby inflaming tensions; SArabia and Yemen “Saudi Arabia Sends War Tanks to Yemen”. Algeria, SArabia and Yemen are on the list (following Libya) to get their prize, Iran. Someone should point this out to SArabia; Solargate “The carbonazis are going bonkers on Twitter, trying to spin this away as a trivial matter, but they are wrong (as usual). This is Obama’s version of ENRON.” wrh.com.

#166 blase on 09.16.11 at 7:32 pm

Thanks Lotusland, insightful post from on the ground. What a shame when the character of a city is flushed for the quick dollars of east Asia.

#167 TurnerNation on 09.16.11 at 7:33 pm

The tax farm slaves are revolting! As punishment the means of production are removed from their grasps.
We must be kept divided.
As mentioned by some on this forum we’ve even lost the middle ground in Candian politics.
You are either “left” (NDP) or “right” (Cons).
Divided straight down the middle, yep.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/09/16/couche-tard-closing.html

Another Couche-Tard convenience store has closed its doors as workers were negotiating their first collective agreement.

The dépanneur at the corner of Jean-Talon Boulevard East and Iberville Street was locked up Thursday late afternoon, hours after unionized employees enacted pressure tactics to bolster contract talks.

#168 TurnerNation on 09.16.11 at 7:34 pm

Good new for ETF junkies? (I’m not a customer)

Scotia iTRADE introduces commission-free online trading on 46 ETFs
Online brokerage partners with Claymore and other Canadian providers

Thursday, September 15, 2011

By IE Staff
Scotia iTRADE is letting Canadian investors buy and sell a wide selection of Exchange Traded Funds commission-free, the discount brokerage division of Scotia Capital Inc. said Thursday.

Forty-six ETFs from Claymore Investments, Inc. and other leading Canadian ETF providers are now available through this offer for trading only at Scotia iTRADE.

The wide selection of ETFs eligible for commission-free online trading covers a broad universe of sectors and investing themes. The eligible ETFs include 31 Claymore funds, eight iShares funds and seven Horizons funds.

For this suite of 46 ETFs, Scotia iTRADE will not charge its usual commission provided customers execute their trade online or via Tele-Trader and hold the ETF for a minimum of one business day.

#169 timo on 09.16.11 at 7:48 pm

http://www.mybudget360.com/one-trillion-dollar-student-loan-market-begins-to-implode-student-college-debt-for-profit-debt-lower-wages-higher-costs/

two-year default rates at for-profit colleges up to 15 percent. Student loan debt increasing at a rate of $170,000 per minute.

One gigantic credit bubble that desperately needs jobs to keep things going.

#170 jess on 09.16.11 at 8:33 pm

149 Live Under Your Means

Do you think the think tanks are hijacking the view?

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Talk:Think_tanks

http://www.sas.upenn.edu/irp/documents/2009GlobalGoToReportThinkTankIndex_1.31.2010.02.01_000.pdf

#171 jess on 09.16.11 at 8:38 pm

168 TurnerNation
Maybe there catching up to all those “zappers”

Tax Automated sales suppression device
POS systems record sales for business and tax purposes. Illegal software dubbed “zappers” is increasingly used on them to falsify these records with a view to evading the payment of taxes.

An automated sales suppression device or zapper is a software program that falsifies the electronic records of point of sale (POS) systems for the purpose of tax evasion.

Most jurisdictions levy a sales tax or a value added tax on commercial transactions such as sales in stores or food served in a restaurant. These transactions are now most often recorded by a POS system rather than a mechanical cash register. The POS system records are generally not alterable by the operator and are used as the basis of tax assessments and audits by tax authorities.

Because POS systems are increasingly designed as general purpose computers (as of 2008, 85% worldwide were reported to run Microsoft Windows),[1] arbitrary software can be run on them. A “zapper” is a software program, often run untraceably from a USB flash drive, that accesses the POS system records and allows the owner of a business to alter the records so as to make it credibly appear that fewer transactions have occurred than has actually been the case. This reduces the tax burden on the business, which is generally proportional to the volume of the transactions.

The use of zappers is illegal and may be subject to criminal penalties. However, according to a 2008 New York Times report, governments worldwide have yet to find effective means of prosecuting their use.[1] A European Union committee on cash register fraud has been established, and legislation mandating tamper-proof POS systems has been proposed in Germany in 2008 and introduced in Quebec on September 1st, 2010.[1]

[edit] References^ a b c Furchgott, Roy (August 29, 2008). “With Software, Till Tampering Is Hard to Find”. New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/30/technology/30zapper.html. Retrieved 2008-09-02.

Zappers alter the electronic sales records in a cash register.
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SRM compatible POS systems
To be SRM compatible, POS systems must be adapted by their developers to meet Revenu Québec’s requirements and technical specifications.

Developers can apply for a certificate of compliance with Revenu Québec’s technical specifications for an adapted POS system. If the adapted POS system meets all the requirements, Revenu Québec issues a certificate of compliance that recognizes the compatibility of their product with an SRM.

The list below provides the names of the POS system that Revenu Québec has certified or are in the process of being certified. This list will help you make a choice between the different products available. You can also contact an SRM installer to help you make a choice.
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#172 maxx on 09.16.11 at 8:47 pm

#23 Onemorething on 09.15.11 at 11:07 pm

excellent post, as usual.

#173 Smoking Man's son on 09.16.11 at 8:56 pm

Ohhh ….the sky..the stars…yeah…

Dad….The Walk/Don’t Walk signals at traffic lites are sending me messages….cryptic….yet secures ones financial future in conjunction with Ouija board.

The cyclotron of life…jump in,…faster than tilt -of -whirl, can you hold down yer lunch..even breakfast., beat the G forces,……will Al Gore and Hilary scold you ?

Caught the Periodic Table members in an orgy…disgusting…then creating complex carbon- based molecules……is this how unions were created ?

“Smokin the fat one”could imply cannabilism..careful ..qualify the statements….honour yer Skull and Bones code…

Yeah…Cohen ….on old gramaphone…78…..Edison model….none of that techno- turd shite.

Mom says hi….

#174 Daisy Mae on 09.16.11 at 8:59 pm

121 – “And we were doing so well today… — Garth”

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That is priceless! LOL So funny!

#175 maxx on 09.16.11 at 9:08 pm

#53 wtf????? on 09.16.11 at 2:07 am

booyeah!!!!

#176 penpal on 09.16.11 at 9:20 pm

@ 154 Moneta

What stress tests?

You don’t really think these civil servants have any idea of leverage or its implications do you?

Why would they care?

The people of Canada have their back, yet have no say in CHMC’s funding nor this guarantee nor to whom they lend nor the standards that they lend by.

The board of directors are neither objective nor independent, consisting of conflicted members of the RE industry and related businesses.

Far as I can tell from their reports, they employ somewhere between 40 and 100 to 1 leverage. Ludicrous in the minimum, practically criminal in the maximum.

No one gives a crap in this country because no one can add and no politician dare speak the truth that the emperor indeed has no clothes.

Canadians are dullards – just try to make a lucid, logical and well informed argument to any of them, on virtually any topic other than hockey and/or beer and watch their eyed glaze over after 30 seconds.

Nah, I have zero faith in the governance of the CMHC as the turds they employ are so employed for their ability to suppress their reasoning skills and kiss King Harper’s butt.

This bubble will burst only when reality asserts itself, at which point these toilet dwelling wastes will exclaim “whocouldaknowdit”.

And all Candians are gonna be paying their gold-plated pensions.

Welcome to Snowistan.

#177 The HOUSING CRASH IS HERE on 09.16.11 at 9:31 pm

Realtors like Waterloo Resident is in a PANIC as homes sales and prices FALL and fall hard all over Ontario. From Toronto to Brampton people ARE IN fact LOSING THEIR HOMES as power of slaes have increased. Wait til the Stock market crash of late September or early October will usger in the DEPRESSION 2008 only this ntime it`s here to stay. Smart money is getting out of RE and the few stupid money is getting in. CRASH….yes it`s here!