It’s babe weather where I am, so I’m forsaking this pathetic blog for a real long ride. Just in time, too. Some days this site irritates the hell out of me. There are far too many people wanting to debate whether the USA is a fascist state, the merits of Austrian versus Keynesian economics or the future of fiat currency.
Frankly, I care not. Legions of people can waste their lives parsing stuff they can neither change nor influence, without me. It’s irrelevant. I’m more interested in what actually resonates with our daily lives, since most folks are walking mistakes. When we live in dollars, why debate having a gold standard? When monetary policy means low rates low across half the world, who cares about Fed ownership? And when half of people have no savings or investments, do you expect them to care about a bank oligarchy?
I don’t.
What matters more than railing at the world is coping with it. Without a doubt, the last few years have increased the role of government and brought a new set of dangers. Cheap money has encouraged an unhealthy borrowing binge. Pro-house policies have backfired and made real estate unaffordable. Fear and greed have pushed money out of liquid investments and into granite counter tops.
It’s likely all the people you know – at work or in the family – are less diversified now than they ever have been before. More money in real estate. More debt. Fewer investments. No RRSP contributions. Little if any savings. Consuming all their cash flow.
This is one reason voters in BC just threw out the HST. Now they’ll go back to having two sales taxes, the PST and the GST, and businesses will no longer be able to deduct the provincial tax, perhaps adding to retail prices. But the outcome was obvious. Ask money-stressed people if they want to pay less tax, and stand back.
With the economy now growing at zero and perhaps about to reverse, there’ll be more consequences of the bad decisions your relatives have made. A few governments will probably be trashed, for example. As in the States, we may see the rise of right-wing reactionaries with a slew of simple solutions (put prisoners to work, slash spending, deport illegal immigrants, pass balanced budget laws). Maybe more anti-social, trash-The-Man events like the Vancouver riot or Toronto’s G20. Maybe just a nation of pissy people who discover they can’t have everything after all.
In fact, this sense of shattered entitlement may be what makes the doomers, conspirators, metalheads, deep thinkers and tin foilists keep it up. Instead of learning how to make this world work, they long for one that isn’t. They trash corporations, governments, banks and even the money supply, when all that energy should go into learning how to make out like a cheerleader inside your TFSA, or creating a tax-deductible mortgage.
That’s why I’m not writing anything today. I’ve had it.
Times may suck, but these are not the end of days. There will be no financial collapse, but at the same time, countless people who never saw trouble coming will fail. It’s one reason our real estate values are unsustainable, and the events to come will materially gut the net worth of many middle class households. Without sustained economic growth, income gains and employment, current debt loads will buckle families. Of course, they have no one to blame but themselves, and god knows the warnings have been shrill.
This is why this piteous blog’s about practicalities, not theorems. I’d rather devote my time to helping people swim than curse the water. Imperfect though the times may be, they’re still rife with opportunities for everyone to do better. It might be getting money out of an RRSP tax-free, how to buy a bond, picking ETFs or where to find income real estate. It ain’t analyzing Ron Paul or Ludwig von Mises.
So there. No words. Suck it up.
And when I get back, I’m writing about stuff that matters. Unless I don’t.
257 comments ↓
There’s a brand new house in east Vancouver that I’ve been watching since Spring of 2010. About 5 different realtors have tried selling it without success. Over the past 1.5 years I have watched the ads read: “Buy now before HST implemented July 1, 2010”, “Buy now and HST negoitable”, “Buy now HST now included”, “Buy now HST included and new price”, “Buy now HST included and $50,000 off”, “Buy now HST included and $100,000 off”. Today HST has been defeated but not until approx. 1.5 – 2 more years of Liberal Gov’t. stalling. I decided to call the current realtor and ask if I can save the cost of the HST now. The realtor said that won’t happen for another 2 years. I replied I’ll wait to save the $100,000 grand in tax. Realtor said that is ridiculous and didn’t think anyone WOULD WAIT 2 YEARS TO BUY A HOUSE OVER SAVING TAX. Then I said I made a mistake because in 2 years the tax will be $50,000 after this place falls 50% off. Realtor choked and said I’d never sell you this place for 50% off. I said you’re right because given the amount of realtors that have been trying to sell this place over 1.5 years you won’t be around in 2 years. Anyone think that new home sales/prices are going to plummet because there are people who will wait until the day when the HST is really dead before buying NEW?
Even though you said you are not saying anything, you made sense in a nice way. Please continue to write the blog. I eagerly wait every night to read it.
Enjoy the sun Garth
Looks like someone’s got a case of the Mondays :)
FIRST !!!!!!!! But seriously, you are correct Garth. Great post as always.
Have a good time
Hang in there Garth. Your words of wisdom are all the gold we need.
Here’s the Globe & Mail’s view of the world; they predict a coming RATE CUT, not an interest rate hike.
Now just imagine what THAT is going to do to the housing prices here in Toronto?
Like I said: That $800,000 home is soon going to become a $2 Million dollar home !
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/rate-hike-looming-how-about-a-cut-instead/article2142027/comments/
The article is a column, not an editorial, and it does not predict a rate cut. Learn to read. — Garth
Giddy up Garthy!
There’s a saying about how to time the stock market, here it is:
– Sell in May and go away,
don’t come back till labor day.
(Would have worked wonders this year.)
First again yeah!
You tell them Garth!
I am sure I speak for many of the blog followers and am just as tired as you with some of these comments made by unhappy,scared, grossly indebted Canucks.
Perhaps its time to put on your big girl panties and do something that will change your miserable lives for once and step out of the box…….just once
Bloggers, by definition, especially on blogs like this, are doomers. Comes with the territory. It really amounts to a bunch of frightened or dispossessed people trying to make sense of incomprehensible events in a swirling mass of contrary information. Your insights have provided this mass of malcontents with information that some find unsettling. Good. That’s as is should be in “interesting times.”
Keep on keepin’ it real G.
But just to keep the fire burning in your belly, here’s the latest from CMHC….painting a big happy smile on real estate growth prospects.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Housing+correction+cards+according+CMHC+report/5300081/story.html
(“when half of people have no savings or investments, do you expect them to care about a bank oligarchy?”) = EXACTLY !
(“Cheap money has encouraged an unhealthy borrowing binge.”) = Oh man, that is SO TRUE !!!!!
(“More money in real estate. More debt. Fewer investments. No RRSP contributions. Little if any savings. Consuming all their cash flow.”) = One has to wonder if maybe this is what the government wanted all along? What could possible turn out good from all of this? I wonder?
(” right-wing reactionaries with a slew of simple solutions (put prisoners to work, slash spending, deport illegal immigrants, pass balanced budget laws)”) = OOPS, looks like I’m one of those. Oh well.
Tonight I watched a re-run show of Gilligan’s Island (channel 23, Roger’s Cable, 7:30pm) and you know, the funny thing about those old shows is that they were RELAXING, there was no stress in them !
Today’s reality TV is just too stressful, it wears people down. I think that I will try watching more old TV shows and less newer shows from today, that will relax me a lot more and in that way I will enjoy life more.
Sometimes the simple things from the past really were the best.
So Garth, have fun and enjoy the weekend, I wish you the best !!
Gilligan’s Island? — Garth
You could always give us a preview of your new book??
garth do you ever do any seminars so people can come and listen to you. obviestly with a fee. i would like to be in any of your seminars in the future that you might have.
thanks
p.s.: i really think you should start organizing one
I did many and have cut back. But I’m willing to hang out in T.O. and Van this autumn if people want. Free, of course. — Garth
The thoughts that never occur to the doomers who think they are going to ride out the zombie apocalypse in some backwoods cabin, sitting on a pile of gold and bullets are:
1.) You’re more vulnerable in the woods, where a determined group of attackers will simply wait for you to run out of ammo (They perfected seige tactics in the middle ages).
2.) There won’t be a zombie apocalypse, because even if things do collapse, history shows us that collapse occurs over long periods of time, and not uniformly.
3.) There will always be economic activity of some kind, and therefore ways to earn a living. You won’t be able to do this out in the woods. There’s a reason why people organize into villages and fiefdoms absent a more complex society.
4.) As Garth says, there’s nothing stopping you from making some dough now based on current conditions.
in addition, have fun in mexico
Agree 100% with your post, the pessimism is sickening and people seem to yearn to see our great friend and ally the United States of America fail. They trash our monetary system and relish in the fact that young Canadian families are paying more and more for housing thus putting themselves in unrepayable debt.
The more reprehensible ones want our banks to fail and seem to have a definite hate for all that is our western world and all the freedoms it grants, these people make me sick to my stomach. Doom and Gloomers really suck and make their lives and probably the ones around them miserable and sad.
Yeah baby lets see the Canadian banks fail, the stock market tank, war and famine thrive and hey, lets keep those canadian house prices soaring, after all what right do families have to sustainable housing.
Sick Pricks.
Oops, wrong Cut-And-Paste !
Here’s the correct article talking about the rate cut coming ( or suggested that one MIGHT be coming ):
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/rate-hike-looming-how-about-a-cut-instead/article2142027/
Here’s some words from that article:
(((( Now, with worries about another U.S. recession mounting, along with a growing realization that Canada’s economy would probably be pulled under should that occur, rate increases are out the window for 2011 and much of 2012.
Significantly, considering how recently so-called inflation hawks were fretting that the recovery was proceeding quickly enough that Mr. Carney was at grave risk of losing his grip on price gains, there is even some early talk his next move could be a cut. ))))
There will be no cut. But if there were, you better worry. — Garth
NO COMMENT!
Well, if Garth is not going to write anything today, then I am certainly not going to comment.
I am not going to say AMEN! to his (apparently not written) suggestion that people not “trash corporations, governments, banks and even the money supply, when all that energy should go into learning how to make out like a cheerleader inside your TFSA, or creating a tax-deductible mortgage.”
But if Garth does happen to write this then I will comment and agree with it totally.
Good night all, I have to get to work analysing investments (it’s early still here in Alberta).
You’re not writing and I’m not commenting…
good job GT.
Thank-you
When half of people have no savings or investments, do you expect them to care about a bank oligarchy?
Hmm.
When half of the people have no bread, do you expect them to care about a bakeries?
A non-existent savings rate is hardly the banks’ fault. — Garth
I’m an addict, been that way for years now since I left Canada.
My addicition is low cost of living, low taxes, liquidity and high returns!
Addicted to my children going to the best private schools, addicted to food that actually tastes good and my USD 3M home which I pay 20% of the to own price by renting?
There is nothing wrong with some types of addiction my doctor, I mean financial planner, says!
Enjoy your holiday! I’m sure we’ll all be waiting once you return…
Fotheringham once quoted a great newspaper columnist in England as saying that readership didn’t enjoy READING the column as much as they wanted to treat it like a long, warm bath; kindof a comfort zone type thingie.
As the internet has long since replaced newspaper columns for most of us here, I suspect that’s still true even tho’ the medium has changed.
(I stay away from MSM ’cause I can’t find a newspaper that actually publishes NEWS…& all the columnists I enjoy reading either retire or get fired)
Just got finished reading the latest rose-coloured-glasses edict from the Edmonton RE Board, so I’ve scoped the funnies for the day…looking forward to more next month!
#16R-Who are you addressing? Your post reads like Travis Bickle talking to the mirror. On planet earth, people who buy gold bullion by the ton are not living in cabins in the hinterland.
Enjoy the open road, Garth. Don’t do what I just did -trashed my V-Max :(. Damn thing doesn’t like turning; always straight and fast. Doesn’t matter much to me. I spend most of my time on my sailboat this summer anyway. It’s a beautiful world out there.
Folks, don’t let all the insanities around us make you forget that there’s still a lot of good life to be had. Take a break and enjoy life a little. Sanity will return eventually. The world is not just about to end. Don’t miss out on what right now has to offer.
Take off the tin foil and get out.
CURIOUSER AND CURIOUSER
Garth said:
Cheap money has encouraged an unhealthy borrowing binge.
A non-existent savings rate is hardly the banks’ fault. — Garth
hmmmm…
Cheap money, under the rules of supply and demand suggest we are awash in money available to be loaned out. Banks loan out deposits. Deposits are savings.
There seems to be a discaonnect here.
One man’s debt is anothe man’s savings (No Virginia, there is not a money printing Santa in the basement of each bank).
How did we get both low savings and high debts? Are the deposits from the Chinese or something?
CURIOUSER and CURIOUSER.
But in the end I don’t care, I just look for investments that make sense. I am not about to lend out ANY money at today’s interest rates. (no bonds for me) Forget it. I will stick with stocks (owning companies). To each his own.
S&P 500 stocks on average earn an ROE of 14% and treade at 1.95 times book value. So that is an earnings yield of just over 7%. Which will do better in the next ten years? owning companies that earn 7% on the amount you pay to buy them (either paid to you as a dividend or retained and earning 14%) or buying 10-year Treasury bonds yielding 2.1%. Let’s see, carry the one… Yeah ROEs could come down. They gotta come down a lot before bonds look good.
And in the meantime … make money. Giddy up.
For a minute i thought shit he’s finaly had enough.
Good point Garth. No matter what the sun will rise in the east and set in California. And as long as the music is still playing the party will be more fun if we keep dancing.
The practical stuff is what you do best anyway.
Enjoy the ride. You remind me that my own ride has been woefully neglected this year, although I did get the boat out a bit. I will have to remedy the situation myself.
Thank you Garth for a very succinct article tonight. The gloomers and doomers are damned annoying,but don’t let them get to you too much. As that old (cliched)saying goes: “This too shall pass”. There are plenty of us out here who appreciate your writings;don’t give up. Get out,enjoy the sun ,ogle the babes.There’s time for serious,there should be time for life.If only the doomers would understand that…
To Warerloo Resident:I was at the main library last week and after browsing their DVD shelves I picked up one of the old Sid Caeser tv show.He and Imogene were comedy geniuses. Brilliant humour. Sure beats any of the garbage on the tube now….Sid’s 90 years old now and still breathing.Proving that humour is the healthiest way to live. (And this isn’t a truck blog site,but…. I want to know how Utopia made out with his….:-)
#19 squidly77 on 08.26.11 at 10:54 pm
The more reprehensible ones want our banks to fail and seem to have a definite hate for all that is our western world and all the freedoms it grants, these people make me sick to my stomach. Doom and Gloomers really suck and make their lives and probably the ones around them miserable and sad.
=====================================
that’s being pretty hypocritical bud…I’m sure there are many people that would label you a doomer for your views on the future of real estate…maybe a little weird or on the fringe of popular opinion. btw I agree with your view, but I think there’s enough room on this site for everyone’s view.Remember , there are no absolutes in this world and nothing is provable until long after events have actually taken place, and then everyone will have forgotten who predicted what and when, and won’t even care.
So, I think as things get more heated, it shouldn’t be threatening to read something that might conflict with our own personal view. Is it proper to censor this discussion,because we feel a little uncomfortable? Most of the time, I just scroll on by uninteresting posts or just laugh a lot. This isn’t a church or a Harper caucus meeting…this is a meeting of many different minds…
who are trying to make sense of an increasingly complex world.
Ah, Garth’s Seinfeld post (a blog about nothing).
Well nothing is something. And your point is very important, people need to shake their fears and get on with life. Re-read money road. Write to your local politicians. Help a neighbour. Do a good deed. Open the door for someone. Smile. Say hello to a stranger.
You never know, for a moment you may forget to wear your tin foil hat…
The HST would have done what it was intended to do. But not when they wanted it to. The Govt. should have known so and I would bet my right nut they did know. An ill timed consumer tax. Tragedy for BC.
Tonight the working class of BC celebrates a big symbolic victory with the elimination of the dreaded HST.
The elite corporatists and their Liberal cronies have been served notice that the time for shared sacrifice has come. No longer can the middle class shoulder the burden of excessive taxation for the benefit of the elite.
All of my working colleagues here struggle to keep up with the outrageous rising costs of living here in Metro Vancouver while corporate executives live it up and enjoy record profits\bonuses on the backs of workers. Stagnant wages Garth? Correct. Zero or negative savings rate in BC Garth? Correct. Wonderful corporate profits? Correct. We the working people are sucked dry by the immoral ruling parasites (Christy & Co) that we essentially have nothing left after paying for the neccessities.
Christy & co serve their corporate masters while us working stiffs get bombarded by huge annual rate increases from every direction (Translink, BC Hydro, ferries, carbon tax and on and on). Garth a blog post analyzing this issue would likely resonate a great deal with the readership that works hard for a living but is hindered from progessing financially by an imbalanced system that concentrates wealth in the hands of a few.
The corporate big whigs here in BC tonight whine about economic damage to come from eliminating the HST. Here’s an idea thought up by a guy named Ford…pay workers enough so that they can buy your products…in other words, leave some disposable income in the pockets of working people for them to be able to consume. No wonder people are in massive debt.
Middle class wages have been stagnant or in decline, in inflation adjusted terms for decades now. Now I wonder why people just can’t save? Maybe all the blame shouldn’t be placed on the average Canadian who works hard to stay afloat.
Apologies for the long rant but it can be very hard for some to apply Garth’s great advice in the context of a political\economic system is designed to rob the middle class. Enough is enough and we’ve spoken in BC.
Well written Garth, er, ah, I mean well said. :D
I don’t post much but anybody notice that RBC lost $ Q2. Now i know that is due to the write down in the us but is that a canary in the coal mine? I can’t remember the last tiem they lost $. The lending has slowed down due to people being maxed out. I’ve also heard of middle management layoffs there. I’d be short banks in this country. InvestorAlan any opinion?
I’ve been reading this blog regularly since the beginning and am amazed you made it this long without a post like todays.
Take the weekend and go cruising Garth, you deserve it.
One thing I’ve recently wondered about your blog is – Why?
Why do you do it? Why do you – day after day – warn of the dangers of over leveraging in real estate? The thing is, the people who are behind this unsustainable runup are not reading your blog. Your readers already know there’s a bubble, and it’s not going to end well. You’re preaching to the choir.
It’s like your standing on a beach in France in 2007, with a megaphone, shouting over the Atlantic, “Hey! Americans! You’ve borrowed too much! Your housing market is about to collapse!”
I wonder why you don’t turn around, and instead yell at the French – “Here’s how you can profit from the Americans’ largesse and over leveraging.”
You’ve got a dedicated following of readers who have already (in general) heeded your advice to not over leverage themselves in real estate. Instead of continuing to warn about the impending bursting bubble, why not tell your readers how to profit from it?
waterloo Resident #20 – “Significantly…… there is even some early talk [by moronic fool dreamers] that his next move could be a cut.
Was it Steven Tyler of Aerosmith that sang “Dream On”? You’ll grow old and have sagging wrinkly lips before that happens. Maybe “invest” in a facelift if a rate cut happens.
“They trash corporations, governments, banks and even the money supply…..”
Remember Garth, for every one aslsohe that rants and vents and spews their verbal diareaha…..
There are hundreds (maybe thousands) that want:
“…when all that energy should go into learning how to make out like a cheerleader inside your TFSA, or creating a tax-deductible mortgage…”
Go for that ride… my sweetie and I just got back from cruising around the local lake in the supercar. She wanted to go on the bike but I said nope, our bonds are making like bandits thanks to Garth, let’s cruise…!
Don’t let them get you down, remember, you can’t fix stupid!
The ones that know how to adapt will be the survivors.
They may not be the strongest or the smartest but they know which way the wind is blowing.
Going for a ride huh, well hell, i’m going fishing again, geez its been good out there.
No bug mush either, just salt spray…
Sounds like you guys are having your two minute of hate
You owe us nothing, Mr. Turner.
I remind you though, that NO GOOD Deed goes unpunished.
Some people need a swift kick in the Grits, so they wake up and smell the coffee.
I would NOT be happy without your daily wisdom – but you do what YOU have to do.
Our Family is safer because of YOU.
Thanks for being so generous.
Never posted before but thought I’d take the time to say I look forward to your ideas every evening, Garth. Two years of reading this blog has made me re-think, and make changes to, many aspects of my finances and investments. Don’t give up on us!
If you come to Vancouver to do a seminar you can count me in!
Most bloggers value the info you share. A handful get way off track and almost wish ridiculous horrible outcomes. They are ignored
The silent majoity rule. We respect what you have to say each night and provide us with what we need to make informed decisions. Your humor, time and sound reality are priceless. Reading some of the bloggers who have rearranged their financial backyards shows your ongoing influence.
Tomorrow is Jack Layton’s service. Let’s remember what he stood for – love is better than anger, hope is better than fear and optimism is better than despair. And we’ll change the world.
We can all use his inspirational focus
Hang in there Garth….See you tomorrow.
Garth, no word of a lie, this has become my favorite spot on the Internet. Look forward to it with my morning coffee. Been following this blog since moving to Vancouver earlier this year and your advice has saved me from becoming “a greater fool”! So hopefully you find comfort that many appreciate the time you take out of your busy day to provide us with your insight and good sense of humour, so soldier on
Gilligan’s Island? — Garth
Classic.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTCYLbFxTpI
May I be the first to say
YAAAAY!
I’d always suspected as much re: your focus on practical advise. Please keep it up, many people need your help.
Garth is right here folks!
What good does taking part in the over-analytical blame game really do for us?
Perhaps we should just stop, step back and think about what we can each do individually. I’m talking about learning how to create personal financial plans with tangible and realistic goals.
That means you need financial literacy and education! Learn about money and (more importantly) learn how to make your money work for you. Or, if the task seems too daunting, find a fee based financial planner to take the burden off you. Then you can focus on the things that really matter.
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” Albert Einstein
cheer up man! You need a beer.
Yeah, keep it pragmatic, the blog.
Same old same old
People would rather complain then offer solutions.
live well and make money
so what if the feds do QE3– profit from it
gold is going up or down- profit from it
interest rates/bond spreads/fx markets etc.. profit from it!!
stop complaining about this and that, look at the big pictures, all the time energy consumed by complaining and whining could have been better spent doing something- anything
like taking a walk
learning some new
picking up a hobby– golf/fish/hunt/ride a motorcycle etc..
live life, make money, be happy
Can you RETARDS quit with the “first” nonsense already? Just get a life…
You should check out Peter Schiff. He gets it. They were calling him Mr. Doom and laughing at him when he predicted housing would collapse in the U.S.
He then correctly called the “recovery” down there a farce, knowing that QE wouldn’t work and that rates have been far too low for far too long. And we emulate them.
Now, he’s predicting the U.S. dollar will collapse because, without a gold standard, the U.S. thinks it can simply print money endlessly without consequence.
Bernanke even admitted it himself!
With this kind of lunacy rampant down there, our largest trading partner, how in the world do you expect us to be optimistic?
You’re richer than most of us Garth – you have even more to protect, and yet apathy consumes you. You’d think someone with more dollars than most would be a little angrier about inflation eating away at those dollars. A gold standard would protect people like you way more than us. But, nevermind, enjoy your monopoly money.
Someday, you will look back on this and think “oh my god, those crazy nutjobs were right!”
–
“I’ve had it. No words. Suck it up. And when I get back, I’m writing about stuff that matters. Unless I don’t.”
Ummm, under provincial and federal labor laws, you may be entitled to a week or so of paid vacation time off, ‘tho who is going to pay you, I’m not sure.
Ever given thought to traveling to Oz, NZ, Singapore, Malaysia, SKorea or the Eurozone and blogging while on the road? Garth’s Groupies can be supplied free of charge!
“. . . countless people who never saw trouble coming will fail since most folks are walking mistakes.” — Agreed, but that is their freedom of choice, not to do any forward planning, not caring what happens before or after 65.
It takes little effort to actually think “What will I do when retirement comes calling?”, then act on those thoughts.
*
#145 Timing is Everything — “Cascadia, anyone?”
The four western provinces, territories, Alaska, west coast (if there’s any left after the ‘quake!), and a few other states might contemplate separating altogether, leaving the womb and going solo.
The Eurozone and MEast are in such a mess that they might also do the same thing, so the idea is plausible.
*
Invade, invade dammit! No, this is not the Planet Of Women but the Planet of Diamonds; Warren Buffett may be getting on, but his smarts aren’t, and here is the reason; Chavez’ Gold This is a very good reason why Chavez asked (?) to have Venezuela’s gold returned. China might be involved as well. Venezuela has a much larger deposit of oil than Saudi Arabia; A Trillion here and Bennie’s Bazooka.
1:11 clip Tiny UFO over Irene (very quick), but a real, live UFO here (2:45 clip). From Rupert Murdoch’s The Sun; Libya Also just about every country which has natural resources, like Iraq and The west’s new MEast, incl. map; Censoring The m$m reporting on The Tea Party. Who is telling the truth? China Psy-ops at work. The caption under the pic gives it away: “A Pentagon report . . .” — Does anyone really believe the WH and Pentagon any more? NATO – US destroy yet another country, but they haven’t won the war yet.
Dogs For all true dog lovers; 1:29 clip The earth breathes in many ways, probably in synch with the rest of the universe; Predictions Autumn weather 2011; ‘Quake Questioned Was it really a ‘quake in Virginia, or was it something more sinister? 4:16 clip Remember The Monkees? Three are touring again.
The people of BC finally had the opportunity to participate in a democratic forum. They made it clear they don’t want the GST. The former jerk off of a Premier, yes the crook who will eventually get nailed for his part in the BC Rail scandal, lied to the people and went ahead with the tax. Now we have to pay to reverse it. Where is this jerk off now? He gets some cushy post overeas. What a disgrace to the province of BC. But have no fear, we have the articulate Christy Cruch Clarke, who so eloquently summed up the future actions of her party: “we’re gonna get to work” That really builds confidence lol
Yes garth, hope you start hanging out in Vancouver soon again.
Have a good vacation.
I’m sorry if I contributed to any bad feelings to anyone. I’ll just remember the best advice I’ve heard from this site.
To paraphrase Garth,
A house is shelter. If you want a home spend some love.
Peace out,
Jim.
The problem in B.C. is that all levels of govt. have an insatiable need for money. Our money.
These wankers don’t care about the electorate. They only care about being re-elected.
What happened in B.C. is the will of the people. It really has nothing to do with how the taxes are collected or what the tax is called.
It has everything to do with being lied to, over and over by the same sad old boys club in Victoria.
It’s a new time and a new day, and moving forward we will no longer accept the status quo of being ruled by the insiders.
If there is to be pain, then everyone must feel the pain equally. Govts, unions, corps, business, school children, midget hockey teams, you name it, if it’s time to buck-up, then everyone must buck-up, not just some unfortunate sectors.
If the film business is better in Toronto, then move to Toronto. Just get your hand out of my pocket would you.
The people have spoken and the agreement was reached across party lines.
Cross us at your own risk.
I’m quite certain that the silent majority who come here every day are doing so for the very real practical advice that you provide all the time. Your blog is a valuable resource for a lot of people.
The comments are occasionally useful as well, but nothing will ever dissuade the legions of doomers and assorted nuts from their posts. Personally I’ve turned into a connoisseur of crazy. All the same I wish there was some kind of comment rating system so that we could downvote them when they get too loud.
So now you have, the HST is now toast here in BC. Business will have to pay to unravel the tax mess, people will indeed put off major purchases for a few years and the government will have to find a way tonrecoup all of the lost revenue.
I suspect there are to be some major cuts coming, or if there is an election and the NDP rides the anti HST sentiment to victory, a host of new taxes.
The same people voted for the demise of the HST will be the same ones complaining of cuts or new taxes.
Maybe there should be a tax on financial illiteracy? Reading this blog and the news media, there is no doubt a lot of revenue would be collected.
You are missing the point. We already understand what you are saying about real estate. It’s time you start expanding your horizon.
These other things matter to people, that’w why we keep bringing it up.
Beside why should people want to make this system work? It only works as ling as there is some sucker to profit from. Hell, you say it all the time. You don’;t make money when everyone understands the game.
Besides, there are too many contradictions in capitalism to keep it around longer. It’s like when a bush party gets to the point when people start walking over the fire. At first the run over it, but then before you know it someones walking over it.
But really what you really should be ding is just getting the hell out f there because what’s next after the fire walking?
Capitalism has been walking over the fire for some time now. Like maybe since August 15 1971. Yu know , when Nixon ran across the fire on that Sunday telling the world that America was going to default on it’s money commitments.
How do you pull out RRSPs tax free?
Hi Martin,
I can give you the notes I took from one of Garth’s talks in Nanaimo back on February 1, 2009. I was impressed with what I heard back then, along with Doug Casey, Michael Levy, David Morgan, Bob Hoye etc., and I still like to hear (and read) Garth today.
Wise then, wise now…
‘Where we are and where we are headed’
Financial failure; regulatory failure; who is to blame?; volatility up; what in the world is happening; different stages of the crisis.
Current stage is deepening job losses – feeds back into uncertainty; we are living in unsettling times but we’re in a time of change.
2009 will be a year of volatility (commodities; markets; job losses). The housing mess – the housing bust – will affect community at large. The severely unaffordable housing markets are Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna.
Resale home prices; Canada tracking the USA with a 2 year lag; Canadian net worth in real estate is approx. 83% (highest in world); the homeowner gamble i.e. downsize now, no spring market etc.
Squeeze on government services due to the declining revenues; unprecedented debt levels to date and set to absolutely worsen.
What to expect for 2009 – lower interest rates, falling prices, deflation, middle class tax cuts and worsening economy.
Real estate is a lagging indicator while stock market is a leading indicator. Compare stock market returns to real estate returns.
Lessons – doing nothing is not an option and do your best in tough circumstances – take control…
Thanks Garth.
Regards Martin.
Jazz
I’m all about swimming, better yet walking on water.
It would be great to see this blog move in that direction. Kudos!
.
¸ ♥ (¯` * •. ¸ ♥ ♥ ¸. • * ‘¯) ♥ ¸. • *’ ¯) (¯ `* •. ¸ ♥ (¯* •. ¸ ♥ ♥ ¸. • * ‘¯) ♥ ¸. • *’
¯ ♥ ——–Put it on the wall of people with good hearts ——–♥(¯ `* •. ¸ ♥ (¯`
* •. ¸ ♥ ♥ ¸. • * ‘¯) ♥ ¸. • *’ ¯) (¯ `* •. ¸ ♥ (¯` * •. ¸ ♥ ♥ ¸ • * ‘¯) ♥ ¸. •
Anyone up for comparing?
Out here in Alberta I’ve noticed houses with some land (1 – 30 acres) that are far enough out from Cowtown and Edmonton to eliminate them as commuter options, are going down in price rather quickly. However, raw land in the same areas seems to be going up, especially empty quarter sections. Being a nuthead doomer I’m always on the lookout for some land I can build a compound on and a place to store my decades worth of toilet paper. These places are not within a commute or being used as second homes/vacation cottages. I’ve noticed a lot of friends who work in the patch cutting things back a lot, they all went for the big toys and financed it all, ouch. A lot of them bought places out in the countryside that are now up for sale. What are price trends in your area? Any other Alberta rednecks want to chime in?
This place, back in 2010 it was going for $400,000.
http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=10252200&PidKey=-1661233691
This place was a million dollars in May
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10581829&PidKey=744320185
The last one here was half a million last summer
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10028390&PidKey=130169766
Not really seeing that level of price reductions in Calgary yet, it’s getting there but if these homes were peoples second/vacation homes I’m thinking holy crap are things gonna get ugly.
#19squidly77
…They trash our monetary system…
We leave that to the poli and central bankers
…The more reprehensible ones want our banks to fail..
We leave that to the bankers
http://i56.tinypic.com/2whnkop.png
http://i56.tinypic.com/2hxnd6h.png
http://i51.tinypic.com/10dzepu.png
Some pretty apocalyptic models of what happens to Canadian RE if, on a systemic basis, interest rates and spreads start shifting. The third chart is kind of interesting; Canadian banks are actually short Canadian RE and benefit from a falling price environment due to CMHC insurance.
Please keep it up, Garth. I need to figure out how to prepare for retirement.
Hi,
I have never posted, though I’ve been reading for a long time. I believe you are correct Garth, there will be no mass collapse of the US (where I am from, and emigrated to CA in ill-fated 2008). However — it is well worth being aware of the rise of the extreme right in the US, and of the tenets of fascism, et al. This extremist right wing element is “not your father’s Republican Party” so to speak. They not only believe in their beloved “end times”, they want to make this come about. Thus they present a clear and present danger to whatever sane people are left in the world should they, in some unfathomable turn of events, take control of the world’s most powerful military.
#27 is right.
Didn’t mean the “response” I meant the comment about those that buy gold by the ton. Otherwise I’d love to do a meet in T.O., hell, I read this friggin’ blog every day. Especially after a night of clubbing, it’s 4 am right now lol.
Garth seems to be pissed by the “Gold’ people. But Garth is right, we need diversification. It pads/protects you from different market variables. Unless the system changes, we just have to be cautious with our money and know where to put it and how to spend it. But the best financial advise I learned was from my father. He told me to live within my means and save at least 40% of my income because we do not know what the future holds.
Best of all, live life with whatever you have and learn to find happiness in simple things.
“Some days this site irritates the hell out of me.”
You too? Jeez, and I thought it was just me… lol
Hope you enjoyed the ride today Garth. We were out for a ride ourselves in the hot Okanagan sunshine!!
Only 3 weeks left before we move to PEI for a couple of years to rent and ride out this economic mess…. yeah the personal taxes are higher but you have to make a lot to make a difference.
The HST was poorly introduced and poor psychology. 2 reports I read indicated that 79% of ALL levels of business in B.C. – DID NOT -bpass on ANY tax savings to the consumer when the tax was introduced, rather pocketing the difference or passing the cash to shareholders
… Go figure.
Hope your ride was as peaceful as ours, Cheers.
As f
Garth, ok, so a question on topic. What do you consider as the best dividend bearing ETFs out there? Some of the distributions on these seem to vary immensely – 4 cents one month, 20 cents the next.
Ron Paul 2012.
Thanks for the blog Garth.
I have a simple question for you Garth. When do you think the TSX and Dow will test their all-time highs again? 14,715 May 2008 for TSX and 14,087 October 2007 for the Dow.
Hi Garth,
I really like this post. Yes, things are negative but there is always some positive somewhere.
You again mentioned the “doomer” crowd if my call them that but I suspect the talk of bunkers and squirrel recipes may have attracted some of these people like moths are attracted to the light.
I do believe that times will get much worse and also believe financial armageddon will befall the world, along with very high levels of inflation, war and other pestilences. But please don’t paint all “doomers” with same brush. I believe these things will happen but use the information to prepare and warn those that will listen. Heck, I can always sell my silver for more than I paid for it and eat the food if things don’t unfold the way I expect them to.
Garth, maybe you should look at the “doomer crowd” like this: I have fire insurance on my possessions not because I *want* my stuff to burn but because *if* my home burns down, I am prepared for it.
Please keep sending the message about real estate. People are listening.
I WANT YOU TO GET MAD! – NETWORK
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K91WIBsKu_Y&feature=related
anjing bau on 08.26.11 at 11:06 pm
————
Eye popping information in there! Like this:
“Taking public
and private components together,
debts have increased at an annual
average rate of 11.2% of GDP since
2003.”
While GDP has increased by what, 6% in nominal terms?
28anjing bau on 08.26.11 at 11:06 pm
———–
“The general public are probably
unaware of the true scale of Britain’s
debts.”
I was listenining to the news when I heard an elderly woman say that she really liked Layton because he cared about people. He was not going to let the funds just sit there doing nothing, he was going to put them to work.
People actually think government is sitting on money.
“Frankly, I care not.” “That’s why I’m not writing anything today. I’ve had it.”
Sounds to me like you need a vacation. Please consider this.
I don’t think my house will burn down but I need to consider it or I wouldn’t have insurance. I don’t really believe the power will ever go out but I need to consider it or I’d never obtain a generator. I don’t believe the financial system will collapse but I have to consider it or I’d never buy gold and silver.
Thinking and considering what may happen is the only way to protect my family.
I have to admit I’m not as educated or as smart as you. I don’t have the connections you enjoy. I am however, smart enough to listen to those smarter then myself. I read and enjoy your blog every day so I can learn. So I can prepare and so I can stay on a realistic track.
So please don’t think a stupid or extreme “what if” statement or question means I’m sure this is what is going to happen. I just want to be ready for what may happen..
Consider a week or two off but don’t get so tired of it all that you quit. A lot of people need you.
Enjoy your ride.
“What matters more than railing at the world is coping with it.” – GT
Amen Brother, Amen.
And I mean that in the sense of “ain’t that the truth”, rather than a prayer ending.
You see, there are oodles of doomer sites but they don’t offer a balanced practical view from a Canadian perspective or come replete with amazing financial advice like yours, Garth. That’s why your blog fills a very important niche for millions of people and I predict more doomers are on the way to Santa Gartha for healing. Stop wrestling with your unwitting reluctance and just accept your destiny as one of the most important political figures in our nation’s young history.
I don’t understand all the fuss about doomers.
If I want to see the world through rose colored glasses all I have to do is follow the MSM and talk to everyone around me. We’re not allowed to be negative, nver mind mourn more than a few days. It makes people feel uncomfortable and we would not want to do that! There are probably 100,000 perma-bulls for every doomer out there.
I read what you guys call the “doom” blogs to blow off some steam. It’s the only place where we’re actually allowed to say anything negative.
Why do you even bother reading doom sites when we are flooded with optimism everywhere else?
Garth has the luxury of just “coping” with the world b/c he is wealthy (I don’t hold that against him).
An example of those that this strategy does not work for? The 40% of the US population that collectively owns 0.3% of the wealth.
Still, there is always at least some truth in what Garth says. I’m a left wing guy…no doubt, but there are people on the conservative side that I always have time for, Garth is one of them.
You nailed me. This blog has created wealth beyond belief. — Garth
Garth said, “I’d rather devote my time to helping people swim than curse the water.”
Fair enough. However I think it is only natural to ask from time to time how the water got so badly polluted.
All the same I wish there was some kind of comment rating system so that we could downvote them when they get too loud.
———
Why would I want the sheep to determine what is good to read?
This was Garth’s Seinfeld moment: An entire blog about nothing.
Well anyway, with this BC HST idiocy I now need to talk to my accountant. If I can’t deduct the PST portion of my revenue stream anymore, time to re-locate the business back to Alberta.
I’ll still live in BC, but my business won’t.
“What matters more than railing at the world is coping with it.” – GT
——–
You first need to make sense of what is happening around you before you can properly cope with it. However, the majority still does not know what is happening.
Since anger comes before acceptance, doomerism in Canada is only going to grow over the next few years whether you like it or not.
“This is one reason voters in BC just threw out the HST. Now they’ll go back to having two sales taxes, the PST and the GST, and businesses will no longer be able to deduct the provincial tax, perhaps adding to retail prices. But the outcome was obvious. Ask money-stressed people if they want to pay less tax, and stand back.”
This unfair collection of tax was costing BCers an average $300-$500 a year. It was SUPPOSED to be ‘revenue neutral’. REVENUE NEUTRAL.
And it’s just tax which goes to levels of government — not business — so why would it affect their bottom line? If it’s difficult and/or costly to implement then governments better make it easier.
The implementation — just everything about it — was based on government lies. And that’s what irks us the most — so many, many lies. Even their recent radio/TV commercials were based on lies by omission.
And we were reaping absolutely no ‘benefits’ — business was not passing on their savings. We knew they wouldn’t.
And they can raise retail prices if they wish…but we don’t have to buy. We are absolutely furious. Ask anyone.
Onemore thing Re: #25,
Where do you live? (just a general city/country would be nice) ha ha
59 Tim: “we have the articulate Christy Crunch Clarke, who so eloquently summed up the future actions of her party: “we’re gonna get to work” That really builds confidence lol
**********************************
Priceless! LOL She is sooooo pathetic…..
Garth,
I think you are very interesting and it is very much a shame that you are not in politics anymore.
I have been reading this blog since you started it.
(sadly I am addicted to it)
Tell me the truth, are you getting a little frustrated this is all taking so long?
You seem over this sometimes and if I am getting impatient, you must be too…
I have to say, it still might take longer than all of us think for prices to correct 15-20%…
Not saying they won’t, just can’t believe how long it has been waiting…
66 Beach Girl on 08.27.11 at 1:55 am
How do you pull out RRSPs tax free?
******************************
You don’t….
Of course you can. — Garth
To elaborate…you can withdraw RRSP funds to purchase real estate BUT it must be paid back within a period of time…or you pay tax.
And you already have real estate, Beach Girl, do you not? There is no other way to withdraw the funds tax-free to my knowledge…
Of course there is. — Garth
Daisy Mae on 08.27.11 at 10:52 am 66 Beach Girl on 08.27.11 at 1:55 am
How do you pull out RRSPs tax free?
******************************
You don’t….
Of course you can. — Garth
**************************
Really? Soorry…
The blog is going on hiatus? There goes my favourite distraction… fingers crossed it doesn’t go on permanent shut-down. Hopefully you won’t make any rash decisions while you’re gone, we’re not all cynics and doomers on here! Either way, enjoy that long ride, anyone would need a break after writing for and moderating this site all the time. Guess my sense of entitlement will just have to cope with the withdrawal!
#16 martin on 08.26.11 at 10:51 pm
Garth, please consider one for Ottawa. I can’t believe that the turnout would be less than standing room only, if not cracking the walls apart.
You are bang on about taking the pragmatic route amidst all the fiscal uncertainty.
#30 The InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen)
In a bear market it’s not unusual for stocks to trade down to book value. That means stocks will fall in half then as corporate profits collapse stocks will fall much, much more. Putting your money under your mattress will produce a much greater return than stocks over the next ten years.
“That’s why I’m not writing anything today. I’ve had it.” – Hon. GT
A long ride is good for the soul. And, by extension, the ‘typing’.
Aim for the VanishingPoint, grab some throttle… & choose your PitStops carefully, GT – ’cause I hear ‘Gino’ is looking for you…
http://tinyurl.com/3c8wvpk
I totally agree with garth canadien real estate is going to go into the dumper but that everything else is fine doomers should let him enjoy his holiday not try and wreck it like they tried to do with the hard working president
#66 Beach Girl on 08.27.11 at 1:55 am
Just don’t work then pull out small rrsp’s that mature. Rrsp’s are nothing but a tax deferral. That way you pay no tax. You claim the withholding tax and get it back the next year. Moving to a province like Alberta from Ontario if you’re borderline would help.
No income is not what I had in mind. — Garth
And the more people we get telling us that everything will be fine if we just think positive, while denying dysfunctional realities, the more doomers we will get.
It’s the yin and yang.
Too many Mr. Magoos out there.
Garth Turner, you so rock.
Please keep up the realness and saneness.
Hope you have a great trip; safe drive.
Ex-Cowtown on 08.27.11 at 10:01 am This was Garth’s Seinfeld moment: An entire blog about nothing.
Well anyway, with this BC HST idiocy I now need to talk to my accountant. If I can’t deduct the PST portion of my revenue stream anymore, time to re-locate the business back to Alberta.
I’ll still live in BC, but my business won’t.
**********************************
So….if the taxpayers of BC aren’t willing to pick up your tab, you’ll leave?
I was a full-on doomer and thought the world was going down in 2008. It didn’t. In fact, the impact on my life was barely noticeable.
Since then, I have learned to take care of the things that I can control and leave everything else to the universe to handle.
I know about peak oil, peak water, peak food, climate change, resource wars, fukushima, etc. I do as much as I can to make my impact on the world as positive as possible. I know that the big picture won’t change.
Garth gives us the information we need to make the best decisions for our family. We are making the best financial decisions we have ever made thanks to his analysis and advice.
Keep going, Garth. There are more people like me out there who benefit from your wisdom. We’re just not as vocal.
And thanks.
I am not saying anything today either.
Summer has been great, I don’t feel gloomy at all anymore and even as 2012 approaches in the distance, it does not make me think the world will soon end.
Nope, that is not my reason for not posting. It is not babes either, or the reappearance of Devils advocate after a long absence….or even the twirpy remarks left by the gold-huggers.
None of those. I just have nothing to say. There is a good reason too. I am trying to quit smoking and my head is spinning from the lack of nicotine and all this fresh air. Just not used to so much clean living.
Can’t concentrate, can’t read, can’t sit still. Can’t think straight. Hopefully it passes. How do you non smokers get through a day without a few drags on a smoke anyway?
I feel like my brain has been hollowed out and its empty in there. If I can last a whole month though….then I win.
(PS: Great post again Garth. What a year this has been)
#105 Tony said…..
“In a bear market it’s not unusual for stocks to trade down to book value. That means stocks will fall in half then as corporate profits collapse stocks will fall much, much more. Putting your money under your mattress will produce a much greater return than stocks over the next ten years”.
——————————
That’s crazy talk Tony. You want to be invested in stocks. Maybe you had not heard that most corporate insiders don’t agree with you. I am talking about the folks who actually run our great companies. They have been buying shares in their own companies hand over fist and insider trader at the recent lows was said to be unprecedented.
Don’t you just wonder what they know about the future that the rest of us don’t seem to grasp?
66 Beach girl – google “RRSP meltdown”. Here is one hit
http://www.milliondollarjourney.com/rrsp-meltdown-strategy.htm
Basically it requires borrowing to invest outside your RRSP and paying the interest (deductible) with RRSP withdrawals (taxable). The two cancel each other.
Not a strategy for everybody though. Consult your trusted advisor
Hi Garth, I enjoyed your post today, made me smile. For “no words” it has quit a bit of useful information and your unique style of wise insight. Thanks for this free blog that seems to be trying to help make a difference. I’m sure you helped at lease one
person/family in some way today, even without words :)
Can’t concentrate, can’t read, can’t sit still. Can’t think straight. Hopefully it passes. How do you non smokers get through a day without a few drags on a smoke anyway?
——-
Aren’t you the one who bought a knitting machine?
Knit something, anything… if you end up with too much stuff, just donate your creations to silent auctions!
Garth…. take a rest,
Then please continue.
I read your blog last every day .
First because it always gets a laugh out of me..very hard to do,
then for your comments,
and last….for the blogs contents.
Bought property at very low price, needed work.
Over run by increasing property tax assessments 24% a year( from $5. g. to 12g./yearly in 4 years)…created by stupid high sale prices, rigged (cherry picked values) assessments in BC, and increasing regulation tax/fees at every turn.
Solution… sell crazy high and drive up all the other property assessments!!!! in Vancouver up.
Then flee Vancouver. Can buy land and build in the interior for $300g.
Did this once before accidentally with a condo….wasn’t large enough , $170 g. over the market price. drove up the top average price. 2003
Here we go again….Hmmm $500+ g. over this time???
If works will clear cool $1+mmmm clear cash.
Bought at $315. 35% down.
You helped me make a financial move I would not have done without the variety of thoughts presented here.
My other favorite Fin. blog would be
“The Market Ticker” by Karl D.
Best Rae
Downtown Methcouver.
Don’t stay away for too long, Garth. There are a number of individuals on this blog who require your brain in order to function.
Be fair, Garth, you were a bit of a doomer yourself (about 20% as I recall) a while ago, with a website selling solar panels and wind-up flashlights for when the balloon goes up.
Actually my efforts were more focused on sustainable and renewable energy, although I always believe in being prepared. To me completely, fair, this is not 2008 or the Spring of 2009. Those who cannot see the evolution of this economy is even more at risk. — Garth
It’s easy to blame others for your short comings. It’s the banks fault you got into debt, the govt fault you payed too much for granite counter tops, the systems fault you are stuck in a dead end job, the educational systems fault your too stupid, your parents fault for not pushing you etc. You spent your life smoking pot and being lazy thinking things will cone to you and you will be alright. Guess what, your now screwed and hope everyone else is too. Just to realize life will go one with or without you. The reason doomers want it all to end is because they spent most of their lives analyzing things rather than participating in them. They are cowards too afraid of life and will spend all of it preparing for thing they have no control over rather than looking in the mirror to find the real problem.
#96 Daisy Mae
“This unfair collection of tax was costing BCers an average $300-$500 a year. It was SUPPOSED to be ‘revenue neutral’. REVENUE NEUTRAL.”
– – –
Sadly, it probably is revenue neutral. It just happens to cost $300-$500 per person to collect and administer the taxes. That’s modern cost-effective ‘government’ in action for ya… lol
That sounds a lot like ‘government inaction’, but it’s purely a coincidence. ;)
Hi Garth
I’ve been reading your blog for months and this is the first time I feel compelled to make a contribution. I admire the honesty of this last post especially. You’ve gone beyond facts and numbers and strategies, and you are now revealing your values to us, and telling us what matters at least for yourself. Garth, it seems you’re an unrepentant pragmatist and I’m a philosopher. Unfortunately this means that I will actually care about these things that “cannot be change”. However, I’m not interested in discussing monetary policy or the economy right now, not in any detail anyways. I actually know very little. But based on what little I do know this does not appear to be another recession or downturn. Something is different this time around.
What’s burning me (and probably a few others) is how folks fork out a living these days. And it’s not just house scalpers. There’s a lot of buying and selling – garbage economic activity – with nothing being created. I’m a teacher and I create something on the other hand, at least I believe I do so. I provide students with valuable skills. Walmart produces something. They bring together in one convenient location a large selection of goods and make those goods available to consumers at competitive prices. This is how the economy “should work” – useful services and goods in exchange for money. But what are the most successful business models today? What are the billionaires up to? Useful goods and services? Well some still might be. But if you want to become super rich in this world you had better forget all together about doing something useful. The super rich today simply siphon off cash, daily buying and selling on financial markets, and produce nothing.
And this brings me to the point. You do not foresee an economic collapse ahead of us – there will be financial bubbles and corrections, and this is all just business as usual. Well, if the foundation of the economy is providing something useful for others in exchange for cash, then how can “garbage economic activity” grow indefinitely? At some point do we not require a link between money and the needs of society? I think it should be obvious that money making, the way we are going about it today, is a deeply flawed process. I’m not Goldman Sachs but I can buy a house, sell it a few years later and have more money in my bank account than I can ever save by working or doing something useful. You do not think the failure of the world economy is possible. I do not understand how a ponzi scheme can continue forever. You’re right we are not going to change the course we’re on. But I do not want to be in denial about it either.
#56Elmer on 08.27.11 at 12:49 am
Can you RETARDS quit with the “first” nonsense already? Just get a life…
=================================
Oh? This bothers you???? Why do you think we do it??
Thanks for the encouragement.
Hey? If I am retarded, does that mean I can park the R8 in the handicap zone??? hahahahahahahahahaha
DELETED
So, the NY Times is saying that Mr. Obama plans to lower the mortgage interest rates for millions of underwater homeowners with govt. backed loans:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/25/business/economy/us-may-back-mortgage-refinancing-for-millions.html?_r=3&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha25&pagewanted=all
Now I know our terms are shorter and not locked in for 30 years like USA but if things go bad in our housing sector, what is stopping CMHC from pulling the same stunt to keep things stable?
It really is starting to look like the ones who didn’t gorge on credit and consumption are the greater fools.
I am at a similar place. Tired of all the bullish. I am not a policy wonk. I can’t do anything about all this, and if I could, it would most likely be the wrong thing. It is what it is. Is the World supposed to be just the way I want it? Well lahdeefrickendah. Childish is what it is. The interesting thing is that our era, in some ways, is like a time machine. I see much more clearly how people in the past felt, and why they did what they did. I get fleeting glimpses of post communist Russia, as peoples lives and assumptions are shattered. I see a picture of an elderly Russian man clutching a portrait of Stalin, and although I wouldn’t want to live under Stalin, And we haven’t gone through a total collapse on a scale of Russia, I understand what that old man is thinking and why. And even further back into antiquity. I read about some long ago event and suddenly I understand. It feels good. The reason its rough is we had it so good for so long. A moron with no wife or children, could sleepwalk to wealth-I did. The World I grew up in is smashed to flinders, and I can either curl up and die, or move forward. Work with what I have, not what I wish I had. Darwin showed the its all about adaptability.
Clear your mind and show your friends and relatives how to be on the look out for opportunities. They’ll be there.
Never mind precious metals and doomers.
I keep coming here for my Fluoride, Bilderberg, Jewish banker, New world order theories and this blog has just not been delivering lately.
How do I get my satisfaction guaranteed refund?
Hi Garth,
Just a note….not sure about anyone else..but you changed my perspective…i max out my TSFA…have increased my savings..rather than buy into a house..invested in ETF’s didn’t buy a house…and enjoy life and pay down my debt….life is good !
#113 Utopia on 08.27.11 at 11:45 am…
“I am trying to quit smoking and my head is spinning from the lack of nicotine”
A few tips (quit a few years back):
Avoid smokers at all costs, even if means you have to phone friends or relatives. Don’t allow anyone to smoke at your home.
Keep track of how much you save, reward yourself – say after a few months of quitting you have saved enough for that new truck engine – splurge!
Eat healthy (you will gain some weight regardless)
Walk, cycle, exercise.
Keep telling yourself how offensive smoking is.
Do not even take one drag of a smoke, that is enough to start again.
Get some peppermint drops and every time you get the urge to smoke, chew one and inhale!
Keep telling yourself your life is better, you can smell, taste foods, and don’t stink anymore.
If you relapse, keep trying – took us 3-4 attempts before we finally kicked the habit.
We tried Zyban, nicotine gum, etc – but what finally worked was gradually cutting down on the number of smokes per day – then quitting altogether.
With apologies to Smoking Man…
Snowboid
re solar panels and smart meters
if you feed into the grid on a 20 yr contract, they will pay you more than they currently charge you for hydro. conclusion, prices will go up a lot
smart meters are everywhere, no one asked for them,
conclusion- there will be a chip in your electric car and you will be billed a higher rate for you car charge
Just a general observation today… It seems eveyone has unanamously decided that everything is now peachy keen and no further problems exist…
Gee whiz, I think thats swell! I guess all that remains foe us to do is to link arms and sing cume-by-ya together.
Remember – you can avoid dealing with reality… but you can’t avoid the COSEQUENCES of avoiding to deal with reality.
Lets hope this blog doesn’t degenerate into another mainstream happy-happy bullshit fest.
#123 aldo681001 on 08.27.11 at 1:01 pm
You are obviously not one of those people who needs Garth’s brain to function.
Despite how easily some people are mollified by a authoritative “there, there”, there actually are some real, fundamental concerns about how our economy currently functions and how money works. And these concerns have direct bearing on things like investments and real estate. That said, these issues are not ultimately financial or economic; they are political, so they normally are far beyond the scope of this blog, and why Garth (as is his right) prefers to ignore them. However, IMO you ignore them at your peril.
In your comment, without specifically articulating them, you touched on a couple of issues that are at the heart of the matter. Briefly…
One is monetary policy, which for the past 30 years has fostered the acceleration of non-self liquidating debt (debt for non-productive purposes). This is also rapidly devaluing our money and forcing more and more people to become speculators rather than savers just to keep from falling behind.
The other is finance capitalism, with its attendant banking/mortgage/accounting frauds. The corruption of the system by finance capitalist crooks is what is currently giving capitalism a bad name. While these are more American issues than Canadian, they still affect all of us.
If you want to learn more, I suggest you look into people such as Michael Hudson, Eric Janszen (iTulip), Cullen Roche (Pragmatic Capitalism), William K. Black, Steve Keen, Catherine Austin Fitts (Solari.com), Nomi Prins, Janet Tavakoli, Karl Denninger, to name a few. These people are not conspiracy theorists or doomers. They are highly respected economists, analysts, regulators, most of whom have worked on the inside at some of the highest levels of government and Wall Street.
Now I know our terms are shorter and not locked in for 30 years like USA but if things go bad in our housing sector, what is stopping CMHC from pulling the same stunt to keep things stable?
——
Unlike the US, we don’t have the reserve currency. Nobody’s currency is pegged to ours. If we print, we’re not forcing everyone else to print.
Therefore, if we print (or give more freebies to homeowners) the bond vigilantes can kill our bond market just like they’re doing to Europe.
I keep coming here for my Fluoride, Bilderberg, Jewish banker, New world order theories and this blog has just not been delivering lately
——-
Ditto! LOL!
#108 Moneta: “And the more people we get telling us that everything will be fine if we just think positive, while denying dysfunctional realities, the more doomers we will get.”
Well yes, doomerism seems a reasonable response to the uncritical Pollyanna-isms of the mass media and the ubiquitous delusions of entitlement fueled by ‘positive-thinking’ pap like “The Secret”.
Unfortunately, the pendulum tends to swing too far the other way when the scales finally fall, and anticipating the apocalypse masquerades as wisdom.
Reality is less emotionally satisfying than fantasies of destructive justice; however, it possesses the redeeming quality of being real.
OUR ECONOMIC FUTURES: IS IT THANKS TO EVOLUTION, “INTELLIGENT DESIGN”, OR BOTH? YEP, IT’S JUST BUSINESS!
Niall Ferguson’s recent book “Ascent of Money (a financial history of the world)” is a marvellous read and describes how the world has gotten to this point, economically-speaking.
It was through a combination of evolution in business, for example, (survival of the fittest), to changes wrought through government fiat, (intelligent design or creationism.
SO…
Garth’s recent reference to “The Ascent of Money…” (a financial history of the world)” dovetail’s into his latest comments about those who harbour end-of-economic- days thoughts:
“…Times may suck, but these are not the end of days. There will be no financial collapse, but at the same time, countless people who never saw trouble coming will fail. It’s one reason our real estate values are unsustainable…Without sustained economic growth…current debt loads will buckle families. Of course, they have no one to blame but themselves, and god knows the warnings have been shrill…”
YEP…
This is why doomers look upon the economic damage and debts EVERYWHERE and wonder if we’ll EVER get out of this alive.
Late economist Joseph Schumpeter, who coined the phrase “creative (business or economic) destruction”, ALSO wrote, more than 70 years ago: “This economic system cannot do without the ultima ratio of the complete destruction of those existences which are irretrievably associated with the hopelessly unadapted (ie: economic entities which are “unfit to live” as Mr. Ferguson put it).”
DOOMERS DO HAVE A POINT
What comes after the economic tsunami really does matter, actually. But Mr. Ferguson writes that we will survive, most of us, no matter the outcome!
(P-361) “…Every shock to the financial system must result in casualties. Left to itself, natural selection should work fast to eliminate the weakest institutions in the market, which are typically gobbled up by the successful.”
AND…
(P-363) “…financial markets are like the mirror of mankind…It is not the fault of the mirror if it reflects ouor blemishes as clearly as our beauty.”
OUR COLLECTIVE ECONOMIC DESTINATION?
The destination will be some sort of financial rectitude, if meddling bank governors and politicians weren’t so afraid of the “evolutionary” process being allowed to work itself through, as Mr. Ferguson so strongly asserts in this book.
But if government interference continues, as it has to date, then it’s gonna be Japan Inc. “light”, “medium” or “heavy” as the next period of time goes by. The Zombies will take over.
We little folks have very little choice, except in our own unexceptional economic, budget-fraught, lives. There’s always the fond possibility that if enough of us try a little harder, to be economically responsible and politically more astute, then Zombieville might be avoided.
SPEAKING OF ZOMBIES…BC! THE “NO HST” VOTE. REPERCUSSIONS SOON TO COME…
Black Swans are expected soon in BC, the land where mob-rule suffices for common sense.
A majority of those who voted to bring back the past did so because they “didn’t like the way” the HST was introduced in 2009.
This is spoiled brat taken to a whole new level of mendacity. A pied piper who trolled too many villages and found too many idiots, starting two years ago, has fashioned some kind of financial outcome the rest of us can’t even come to imagine: Businesses will leave, government-paid wishes and dreams will be dashed.
But, by golly, going back to yesterday’s tax regime sure feels good, for now! And NOW is what it’s all about in this nutty province.
And if we don’t like the outcome we’ll vote NDP next time and all of our dreams will come true, because Mr. Dix says they will! And better than that, it won’t cost of thing. It’ll be free! Because the NDP will say so! Let’s go for a latee! Whoopee!
#35 Hammer1
that’s being pretty hypocritical bud…I’m sure there are many people that would label you a doomer for your views on the future of real estate
I was referring to the ones that passionately lust for Armageddon and the end of the western world.
Cheaper housing will help young Canadian families, not hurt them.
Have a good holiday Garth.
@ #37 Fea Bitten Monkey and #64 Bobby
Please read #96 Daisy Mae’s for an “anti HST” point of view.
The entire HST “fiasco” was the Liberal Govts fault from start to finish.
From the former premier’s( Campbell) denials during the last Provincial election that HST negotiations were taking place( The Feds admitted after the election the negotiations started 6 months BEFORE the election was called.)
From the dreadful job of “selling” the HST to the BC voting public after it was rammed down our throats, to the horribly pathetic attempts to positively “spin” it. The Liberal Govt never expected the Huge anti HST backlash and the 700,000 recall vote.
They then announced it was really Revenue “neutral”
( a very interesting calculation considering that when they have announced the budget will lose 1.4 Billion PER YEAR if we go back to the old GST/PST system).
They spent 12 million on blatantly biased advertising to promote the HST ( $100 to every $1 dollar the anti HST side spent in advertising).
The HST referendum was held in the summer(a notoriously low voter turnout period). It was a mail in vote(historically low voter participation, the question required a “reverse answer” ie yes means no, no means yes. The referendum ended at 4:30pm on a FRIDAY? (Question: When was the last time you voted and the polls closed at 4:30 on a weekday? Answer: NEVER)
The govt also offered HST “rebates” to low income earners( a blatant “poor person voter bribe” if there ever was one. ALL govts everywhere seem to be doing this same disgusting vote buying tactic these days). Why give rebates if the tax is “neutral”
The govt also lined up endless ‘Pro HST “experts” to tell us what a wonderful thing it was for business and the economy. Who were these people and what were their Liberal affiliations?
The people I talked to complained bitterly about extra taxes on Golf, restaurant meals, car rentals,
and MORE IMPORTANTLY 7% more LABOUR TAX on ANY WORK PROVIDED by a CONTRACTOR.
Want your house painted under the old system for say $5000.00( $500.00 of paint and $4500.00 of Labour)? 5%GST = $250.00 on “Goods”ie paint and “Services”ie Labour .
7% PST = $35.00 on the “Product” ie paint
For a grand total of $285.00 GST/PST
NOW for the REVENUE NEUTRAL HST @ 12% on $5000.00
12%HST = $600.00 yup, $315.00 MORE in tax !
Morre than double what you previously paid
Want you car tuned up? Want a plumber? Want a new deck? Home renos?
ANYTHING THAT INVOLVES LABOUR IS NOW TAXED AT 7% MORE UNDER THE HST.
Anyone in Ontario wish they had the same referendum powers?
Anyone?
So #64 Bobby, before you smugly opine that the readers and commenters here are a bunch of financial illiterates. Please take note.
I own my house in Burbaby, mortage free, I have aprox $400,000 invested and I dont like paying more tax.
And apparently 55% of the 1.6 MILLION voters that participated in the referendum agree with me.
Your an idiot.
When we live in dollars, why debate having a gold standard? When monetary policy means low rates low across half the world, who cares about Fed ownership? I Don’t -Garth
That is a sad commentary but typical of todays social engineering. Most people only care about the now and themselves never giving any consideration to the legacy they leave for their children. Well , I am sad to say there are still a few of use out here who do want to change the system for the betterment of future generations. To once again level the card table and unstack the deck. Some of use know there are few options at our disposal. The fiat money system was created to steal wealth from the middle class and transfer it to the money controllers.
As Thomas Jefferson once said , Quote:
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered…I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies… The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
Its sad to think that most people think that the system we are forced to live in now is the only option we have. Stockholm Syndrome is also quite contagious it seems.
‘The fiat money system was created to steal wealth from the middle class and transfer it to the money controllers.’ You just won today’s Skippy Award. — Garth
#123Aldo-Watch your tone there Aldo-a rational acceptance of the reality that the productive economy is becoming increasingly a smaller % of the overall economy is dangerously close to the dreaded doomer type of thought. I advise repeated viewings of THE SOUND OF MUSIC until these bad thoughts leave your mind and you can enjoy the MSM nonsense once again.
#64 Bobby
Well Bob, I think it was the arrogance the Harper gov and the Campbell gov displayed as much as, if not more than, the HST itself. It all makes perfect sense.
Arrogant. Garth, sound about right?
G – I have a simple answer for you regarding the blog. The world is made up of only 2 types of people. Those who see the glass half empty, and those who see it half full. Period!
Those who stumbled upon this site can claim many sources on how it all started, but I bet a vast majority who sense trouble found you and now dwell around the camp fire telling us horrific stories. History never repeats itself, it is just a guideline for what may transpire – I don’t listen to those who put on rosey glasses and tell me all is well, but I don’t listen to those that tell me the world is on the verge of total annihilation.
I personally have been attacked by my “handle” – what gives. I received a free education on my ability to play a sport that Harvard eagerly recruited in building a powerhouse that had escaped them for many years – nothing more. Being a target had more to do with those who are bitter and hateful – how else can you explain it!
My only area of contention is that realestate a bubble in itself that will pop without any external hardships. In the province of Ontario I know countless people who’s sole financial well being is hinged on the health of the housing market – period. No fall back plan. For years we have slowly eliminated our manufacturing base and now survive on the service industry. It produces nothing tangable, it fills a void that marketing guru’s have masterfully exploited the masses to.
Yep, I see the glass half empty, its where I draw the line that places me into the nut bar camp or just a guy who is cautious and has seen too many good friends get devoured by debt.
G, fantastic job – I don’t always agree with your writing – but your the host and everyone must respect that or start your own blog. What makes this a truly interesting site is the wide range of thoughts and ideas. I read it, most of them I dismiss it – but each day I learn a new facet of life thanks to this blog!
JohnnyBravo
Thanks for the references; it is something I’d like to understand better. Garth has a very sharp mind in fact, just he has his blind spots as we all do.
a prairie dawg on 08.27.11 at 12:49 pm #96 Daisy Mae
“This unfair collection of tax was costing BCers an average $300-$500 a year. It was SUPPOSED to be ‘revenue neutral’. REVENUE NEUTRAL.”
– – –
Sadly, it probably is revenue neutral. It just happens to cost $300-$500 per person to collect and administer the taxes. That’s modern cost-effective ‘government’ in action for ya… lol
That sounds a lot like ‘government inaction’, but it’s purely a coincidence. ;)
***********************
Good point. You’re probably right. The costs were just transferred from business to taxpayer…as usual.
But hey! “We’re not taking it, anymore!”
The government seems to think we’re dumb and can be manipulated, which is such an insult.
I learn so much on this blog. *sigh* But we can’t be on top of everything all the time….
On August 24th of this year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada announced a commitment of 370,000 dollars to support research into the causes of the bee die-off in Saskatchewan and other provinces.
It does not sound like a lot of money. But it is a big deal.
I am delighted that the Federal Government has chosen bee research as one of its priorities over the coming year and I strongly encourage them to stay focussed on this very vital issue.
Some of you will already be familiar with my efforts in support of this important industry. Although I am only a hobbyist, I have done my level best to bring attention to an unfolding disaster in this sector.
One of my articles has come to the attention of Agriculture Canada. And not a minute too late. Someone (unknown) with authority has stepped forward in the last few months and backed my worry with research dollars in support of the industry.
A good contribution was made.
To that unknown person, I just want to say “thank-you” and I want to express my sincere gratitude for your support and your efforts in helping to find a solution to the problem of the bee die-offs here in Saskatchewan.
This is late in the game for an industry under extreme stress and bee-keepers across Canada need all the help they can get at this moment in time. With luck, one part of the puzzle will be cracked and it will yield a solution to our developing problems.
To read my original article on the consequences of a world with not enough bees and why the die-off is jeopardizing the industry and small Apiaries across the province….. go here: The article is entitled “Honey Bee Die-Off Threatens Global Food Chain”. Some have already accused me of writing an “over the top” piece and even suggested I was dramatizing this problem.
I am unrepentant. This is as serious as I am telling you.
http://www.rickackerman.com/2011/04/bee-die-off-threatens-global-food-calamity/
For details on the recent Agriculture Canada contribution to bee research in Saskatchewan; please go here……..
http://news.gc.ca/web/article-eng.do?mthd=ntnl&crtr.page=1&nid=619689&crtr.tp1D=
And finally, to Agriculture Canada who has generously come through with critical funding and research dollars in an age of Austerity….let me say again, Thank – you!
have a great vacation Garth,
in the meantime I will keep watching the storm clouds.
http://boombustblog.com/eighteen-percent-of-the-eu-is-literally-junk-carried-as-risk-free-assets-at-par-at-30x-leverage-bank-collapse-is-inevitable.html
“So, the next domino falls in the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis. As has been the casse for much of the Asset Securitization Crisis and the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the ratings agencies have arrived to smoldering pile of ashes littered with charred bones and remnants of the putrid smell of burnt flesh with a fire hose and a megaphone yelling “Get out! We have word there may be a fire here!”
;)
The Emperor’s Clothes on 08.27.11 at 4:29 pm @ #37 Fea Bitten Monkey and #64 Bobby
Please read #96 Daisy Mae’s for an “anti HST” point of view.
The entire HST “fiasco” was the Liberal Govts fault from start to finish.
********************
Perfect explanation. Thanks for your support. I am sooo disgusted.
#97 Opus…
lat long
3.152171,101.686592
–
#45 Dan in Victoria — “No bug mush either, just salt spray…” — Damn, that’s a great feeling. Love the smell of the sea, underwater swimming and surfing — that is one of the great memories I have from childhood. Nice post!
#78 a prairie dawg — “Some days this site irritates the hell out of me.”
“You too? Jeez, and I thought it was just me… lol”
Au contraire! Dilbert is the biggest laugh of the day (esp. the pointy-haired boss, who is remarkably similar to F), and this blog runs a close second!
#91 Deano — “The 40% of the US population that collectively owns 0.3% of the wealth.”
— and —
“You nailed me. This blog has created wealth beyond belief. — Garth”
There it is in a nutshell. All the tools are freely available for anyone to use, make themselves adequately wealthy (not to be reliant on the feds. or provinces), then to live well within one’s means.
TFSA’s are one of the best examples, possibly better than RRSPs, having the net proceeds from investments going into a non-registered account and using monthly DRIPs to further one’s retirement cash flow.
#132 westernman — “It seems eveyone has unanamously decided that everything is now peachy keen and no further problems exist…”
A slight deviation from the norm, but in the lower psychic regions (heavens, planes or levels), the Spiritual Law of Polarity exists, where nothing can exist except in relation to its opposite.
For example, war – peace, heaven – hell, good – evil, love – hate, male – female, up – down, etc. All problems come with built-in solutions – it is up to the individual to find the solution that fits their needs.
#139 squidly77 — “I was referring to the ones that passionately lust for Armageddon and the end of the western world.”
Not the end of the western world, just a change in cycles (which we are presently going through) from the Caucasian to the yellow – red races, that’s all.
*
The Russian professor who said the US would break into six territories in 2010 may not be that far off the mark.
Theoretically, Irene could have been manufactured by HAARP, and with the link yesterday, saying there was a deliberate underground nuke explosion which triggered the 5.8 ‘quake in Virginia, no one would have given the idea any creedence at all, so it is possible that the ‘authorities’ could pull the same stunt on the west coast, and let the SAF take care of itself.
The eastern ‘quake can awaken the NMF. then Yellowstone. The prof. may have the dates wrong, but the idea is right. Questionmark on ‘quake, and The ‘quake in Virginia, this.
*
Thought For The Day (wrh.com) — “There is a great deal of money to be made by wrecking the Canadian system of Medicare (universal health care). All the excess costs of an American–style payment system represent higher incomes for both the insurance industry and providers of care.” — Public Citizen’s Health Research Group newsletter, December 1999, p8″
1:52 clip, with English subtitles de Gaulle had it right in this speech, given in 1965 (before Garth’s time); Nice pix 65 mln. in path of Irene?
re # 145
good post
Well yes, doomerism seems a reasonable response to the uncritical Pollyanna-isms of the mass media and the ubiquitous delusions of entitlement fueled by ‘positive-thinking’ pap like “The Secret”.
———
I never said it was reasonable. It’s the natural human response.
.#154 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad
China is an extremely poor country and it’s citizens are impoverished, will their time come, possibly but not in mine or in your lifetime.
America has the worlds best universities.
America has the best medical care in the world.
America has every home wired and climate controlled.
America has fresh water supplied to every home.
America has a social welfare net.
America has a school system that all must attend.
America has the worlds largest stock markets.
America has law and order.
America has just justice.
America has professional sports.
America has a free, how be it useless media.
America been to the Moon more than once.
America provides more world emergency aid than the rest of world combined.
America has millions of miles of police patrolled highways.
America has the worlds largest rail system.
America builds air crafts and trains for the entire world.
America is civilized from East to West and from North to South.
America repelled the Nazis in WW2.
Americans created Microsoft, Apple and the Internet.
As for China, they make cheap Walmart products and are good counterfeiters of other peoples ideas and reputations.
I nearly forgot, America has a slightly larger military machine
When immigrants seek refuge in China or hopeful emigrants enter a lotto to live in China there day maybe near. For now, they are a century behind America.
Great post on Steve Keen’s site. In Australia they have a house porn show called the Chopping Block where homes are put up for auction in a live event. I guess this week the show didn’t go so well as 3 of the 4 homes couldn’t find buyers:
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/08/27/the-chopping-block/
#150 Utopia,
Bees are great and important cause. Good for you.
#147 Harverd Gradyouate,
You asked, “I personally have been attacked by my “handle” – what gives.”
We are just in awe of your humility.
You nailed me. This blog has created wealth beyond belief. — Garth
Sigh.
All i know is that when i look out the window in vancouver, realtors and police officers are making more money than MDs, … Contractors are fully employed, engineers are struggling to find work… “successful” small business owners are feeling the pinch yet there are more BMWs on the road being driven by people who have not worked a day in canada.
Does this makes sense? History tells us that there are rarely “new normals”
I find that there is very little interesting on the Internet these days. I would miss your blog Garth! Keep up the great work cause we aren’t all nut jobs. I never knew I was interested in economics until reading your blog since 2008.
squidy…if you’re going to make lists makes sure they are at least accurate….
A few mistakes on your part….
Many homes in the US these days have no power…ever been to Appalachia?
America has justice…for sale….
America, as a percentage of GNI is way below average when it comes to aid
America has fresh water delivered to every home…see Apalachia
America doesn’t build trains for it’s own proposed high speed rail…Spain does that
America is civilized….see Apalachia
America helped repel the Nazis…Russia did the heavy lifting though.
America has an economy that relies heavily on its military machine.
Your point is valid….but your jingoism is a little much.
#148 aldo681001 on 08.27.11 at 6:18 pm
You’re welcome.
Garth has a sharp mind, indeed. No one should mistake his reticence to engage in discussions on such topics as monetary theory, macro economic theory or the financial system as “blind spots” or a lack of understanding.
OK, your last reply to a post was 4:49pm, go on holidays already and enjoy, take a break from this madness; you deserve it! Enjoy the ride!
I see both sides. those gleefully anticipating the fall of society like “the days of the dictators” aren’t going to look good after a few romantic years in the bunker fighting off former starving citizens in their made-up Mad Max world.
And I see those with hands over their ears, singing “La La La” as the financial criminals in the US embolden themselves, and the environment is destroyed because doncha know, corporations are people too.
Here’s to all of us smart enough to be awake without becoming that person ranting in the corner at the party who no one wants to hang out with.
To learn about the bee die-off, research Bayer and Neonicotinoids. This class of persistent pesticides is banned in other countries, and in countries where they are banned there is not the same problem with hive collapse. The US continues to push sales of these pesticides in Canada, just as they continue to pressure on GMOs.
This blog, to me, has never been about calling/timing the market, and I’ve tried not to expect definite answers nor predictions. It’s overarching theme has always been about one thing: opinions on risk, and managing and mitigating risk – that’s it – nothing more.
Buy or rent – your choice. This blog, in addition to other sources, can inform that decision. Anyone who “lived by” the words of Garth or any commentators (mostly bears) here did not understand this.
But this blog has been more liberal than most in allowing off topic, bizarre, and even admitted drunken (namely Smoking Man) ramblings and comments – and that, of course, has made it more interesting than most other dry real estate information/opinion site (example: chpc.biz – dry, no comments – how many followers does Brian Ripley have from that site? Far less than here).
Nice post Garth, you’re coming around to sound principles, gold standard, Ron Paul and Mises all in one post! Only Ayn Rand was missing. Identifying the problem is the first step toward finding a solution.
–
Jobless Americans filing for disability; Iceland’s on-going revolution, but where is the m$m? Oh yes, they are controlled; Spoot the lie; Bernanke shot at Congress, but only the Super Congress counts now — the rest are fired.
Aug. – Sept. From bad to worse; More UK banking layoffs; In the real world . . . How bad will it get? Chase Manhattan Don’t the Rockefellers own Chase? Sayings “When you’ve got ’em by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow.”; Stagetrap Falling through; 6:33 clip (I think) US Fed admits they have no gold.
14:58 clip Fukushima Part One and 7:55 clip Part Two, a.k.a. Titanic, and Radioactive Rice found in two prefectures; Drooling Yet Libya supplied over 80% of Italy’s oil; The Toilet causes consternation in LaLaLand; What happens if Texas secedes, and the four western provinces leave Confederation? Realist “New, convincing evidence indicates global warming is caused by cosmic rays and the sun — not humans.”
Garth — Here’s your ticket, so enjoy the prize! Libya — Iraq 2.0; Sentencing Frenzy Seems the UK is following the US; 0:54 clip Test F4 Phantom crashes into wall at 500 mph; China – US “Where do you think the American ground invasion will be coming from?” wrh.com.
Oh, one more thing, aldo681001
Another very good source is The Automatic Earth for the opinions of Nicole Foss (aka Stoneleigh). She is an energy expert, and she has a very keen understanding of the interplay between energy, finance, and economics. Her video presentation “A Century of Challenges” is excellent, whether you agree with her conclusions or not.
By coincidence, in her latest post, Stoneleigh offers up a rather “Garthian” observation. She says, “Speculative manias continue until the greatest fool has committed himself to the exhausted trend, and no one remains to push prices up further.”
Jeff Rubin looks at many of the same issues, but has some very different opinions from Foss.
Since energy is the most fundamental input––for life as well as the economy––understanding energy from an economic perspective is another part of understanding the bigger economic picture.
If this is all new to you, you may want to take it slow; the amount of information and plethora of opinions can be overwhelming.
That’s why I’m not writing anything today. I’ve had it.
I am the secretary of our community association. A sometimes demanding and frustrating job. Once a man came to our meeting to demand that we hold an all-candidates meeting. He thought that we received some sort of salary for our efforts and thought that organizing an all-candidates meeting should be part of our duties. We explained that we didn’t get any salary but that maybe we should organize an all-candidates meeting and he seemed to be just the man for the job. Next time I looked up from my notes, he was gone.
Imperfect though the times may be, they’re still rife with opportunities for everyone to do better. – Garth
‘Everyone’ is a lot of people. Many will do worse. Everyone can not do better. On the contrary, ‘in bad times’ the poor usually get poorer. But I still think, mostly, you’re helping some people through ‘imperfect times’ better than they otherwise might have. Reality bites…hard.
In bad times, the rich usually get richer. – Stuart Wilde
http://tinyurl.com/4xwobcg
http://tinyurl.com/3z8rdbj
p.s. I really do wish you continue ‘writing stuff that matters’…..for the the rest of us.
#140anjing bau on 08.27.11 at 4:27 pm
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Thanks for the links. Always looking for new leads!
For #143, The Emperor’s Clothes,
My friend, if you are trying to impress me with your financial prowess you will have to come up with some bigger numbers than that. If you want to impress me with your literacy you should learn to spell. It is you’re an idiot.
Perhaps a tax on idiots may be more appropriate. No doubt you would pay your fair share.
Enough said!
Tony at 105 said:
In a bear market it’s not unusual for stocks to trade down to book value. That means stocks will fall in half then as corporate profits collapse stocks will fall much, much more. Putting your money under your mattress will produce a much greater return than stocks over the next ten years.
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I don’t agree. Yes, stocks may (or may not) trade down to book value since no one can predict the madness of investors.
But I don’t see much basis to suggest that corporate earnings will fall in half and stay low and that stocks will be lower 10 years from now.
I’ll go with Buffett’s view that owning a share of corporate America (or Canada) is likely to work out well.
It’s ironic that in 2000 at the top of a bubble market almost everyone wanted stocks. Ten years later stock prices are about where they were in 2000 but their earnings are about double.
Now that stocks are on sale at about 50% off on a P/E or P/B basis compared to 2000 and bonds are in a bubble, most people seem to think bonds are the better investment.
#157 squidly77 on 08.27.11 at 9:47 pm
Much as I enjoy the US, your post makes no sense and is really just silly.
In comparing America to China, some of your points are correct, some are debatable, many are exaggerated, the rest are irrelevant.
Vlad @154
Thanks,now the good part. Had fresh caught salmon filleted on the BBQ tonight along with some large prawns we caught, topped off with some fresh dungeness crab.
A little dash of home made wine, fresh corn on the cobb and veggies from the local farmers.
taking care of the $$$$ is good , but enjoying life and friends well……….
Take care Vlad I’m off on a fishing adventure for a week should be a great show watching the eagles try to steal the fish off the lines at the back of the boat, fighting for territory zooming through the trees. Watching the young ones being trained to hunt.
Whales breaching and feeding a hundred feet from the boat…..
Seals and sea lions a few feet away
Laughing and having fun with friends. One or two beers….
Thats why the finances are important you can then go do what you want.
Garth-
Really enjoy your postings, and your advice. Several regulars contribute sage perspectives and humor as well.
As a Boomer with NO debt, and of relatively modest means, the McMansions so popular in the early 2000’s had no appeal.
Saving & Investing however, DOES have great interest these days. With retirement looming, healthcare costs ahead, a lower income after retirement, structuring a portfolio for BOTH growth and a 4% withdrawl rate per annum is seeming MUCH tougher than just a year ago.
Everybody has seen the stock markets melt over the last couple of months, many fled to the “Safety” of 2.3% Treasuries….which might meet inflation if you’re lucky. Sure, the markets will recover, timing is the unknown.
Generally, I have had a 75/25% perspective 75% equities, 25% Bonds.
Equities are both large-cap, small cap, and international index funds.
Bonds are 80% Corporates 20% Government, and are mixed domestic & foreign including foreign gov’t bonds.
Do you think that is still a reasonable “split” moving forward, or should one be more…er….conservative??
What percentages of one’s portfolio do you think should be in equities vs. bonds based on where the world is now, and as viewed from a retirement perspective? We’re only talking about a portfolio size slightly north of half a mill US. Thanks
#123 aldo681001
Enjoyed you posting immensely, couldn’t agree with you more!
#25 ONE MORE THING
Where are you?.
#159 Junius on 08.27.11
#130 Snowboid on 08.27.11
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Thanks so much Junius. I appreciate you took the time to read my article and comment on it. Bees are so much more important that most people realize. Yes, the economy is a big deal. We all worry over debt. Why is it that the essentials are being overlooked though…like food supplies and the strength of our civilization.
To Snowboid: Your tips on quitting smoking have been saved. They are very helpful to me now and timely too…..I liked the idea about peppermint, Zyban and avoiding all others who smoke. This is not as easy as I would like it to be.
Still feel stunned and confused.
Keep it up man, don’t let the fearful guys get you down.
There’s far too much bitterness regarding this entire situation, sure things are pretty broken right now, but look after number one is the first step. I’m in my early twenties, live debt free, don’t earn a mega wage, but I’m sensible, my parents taught me to be careful with finances, but not to put it before the important things.
So what if real estate is expensive at the moment – if your life’s happiness is dependent on a plot of land, then you may need more help than a haircut on housing prices.
I’m happy to offer my suggestions to my friends who fritter their money on expensive cell phone plans, excessive cable deals and count down the days to payday. I hope I can spread some of the happiness that Garth tries to put out there.
To the non-tin foil hat brigade on here, Garth isn’t an omnipresent real estate guru, who can nail down how much and when prices are going to alter. He is a guy who realises that things are pretty badly balanced in the economy, and that people need to take control of their spending habits to make sure the most unimportant part of life doesn’t start to govern you.
I already hear your message Garth, but I’ll still come out to see you in VanCity, and with no crazy condo fees to be paying out, I can buy you a couple of scotches as a thank you.
I will now wait until HST is gone before buying a home. By then, you’d have to think there’s a good chance of double benefit :
1. HST gone to save 7% on a home
2. A chance Houses prices should drop further!
Also heard from back channels the canadian immigration will be reduced starting 2012.
#156 Moneta: “I never said it was reasonable. It’s the natural human response.”
Agreed. Hence “seems” in my post.
I actually went out on a date tonight. No he was not my knight in shiny armor, actually more like a RETARD wearing tin foil. Why is everyone broke. I nearly paid for the dinner myself, just to get out of there. No I did not put out.
But Garth, all unhappiness aside. How do you pull out RRSPs without paying tax. I cannot give up my livelyhood to engage in something like that.
I have lucked out in the markets, and won’t live to a hundred. Everyone looks shitty after 70 anyway.
I am self-employed, own a Ont. # company. How do I get some of my valuable assets free from tax. Your loyal servant.
At long last Garth you have detected the end of the world as you know it and wish to get out of the way before the outraged mob takes notice of you.
Good plan! Just be sure to take your vitamin gold and silver and take delivery . Also one should obtain important liquid assets like Glen Livet. For your own good Garth try not to be too noticeable to the mob.
Soon the awfull price of failure will be paid for all the social, political and financial reforms ,corruption, arrogance and willfull ignorance of the last 500 years.
Don’t worry about this not being obvious right now, some punishments take time. Rome was neither built nor destroyed in a day but it fell to barbarians just the same.
please don’t leave
#142 The Emperor’s Clothes on 08.27.11 at 4:29 pm
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yes, i do.
Want you car tuned up? Want a plumber? Want a new deck? Home renos?
ANYTHING THAT INVOLVES LABOUR IS NOW TAXED AT 7% MORE UNDER THE HST.
Anyone in Ontario wish they had the same referendum powers?
Anyone?
————–
All our growth has been obtained without accounting for externalities, or the true cost of things. Our governments are broke and have not choice but to lie.
I see more money to be saved by not spending.
I totally agree with garth totally canadien real estate is about to go into the dumper but everything else to do with the economy is just fine and the doomers should leave him alone and not try and wreck his vacation like they tried with the hard working president
All our growth has been obtained without accounting for externalities, or the true cost of things. Our governments are broke and have not choice but to lie.
I see more money to be saved by not spending.
———
What I am saying is that all this fighting to not pay this tax is a waste of time and money. A focus on the wrong issues.
If the government is broke and can’t collect a tax it will just find another way to collect the money. And even more lying will be involved.
#187Beach-If you paid for the meal, technically speaking he was the one that didn’t put out.
#172Johnny-IMO Rubin paints a best case scenario for an oil depleted economy, at least in NA. Here in Canada, few are aware just how small our net oil exports are at this point (last time I checked they were less than 10% of Saudi). As our population increases with immigration, this number will decrease until possibly eventually Canada will no longer be a net exporter of oil at all. Here in Ontario we get our oil from the Middle East, not Alberta.
#167GTR-Re the “fall of society”, how would you define your town or city becoming just like Windsor? Is that the fall of society (Windsor has a population of about 230000 and had no murders in 2010 and none so far this year). One thing I think people miss is that this long grind down isn’t going to be very thrilling or even sudden, just a long boring grind for most.
In the spirit of doing something practical, perhaps it would be good to discuss some alternatives to the North American style of housing market.
Housing co-operatives and co-housing communities offer an alternative to the owner/renter dichotomy and in countries like Denmark where a substantial percentage of the housing stock is comprised of co-ops and co-housing units, the housing supply is somewhat protected from market forces.
Housing is a strange animal – a home, shelter from the elements, an investment and a status symbol all rolled into one. Every living person in Canada needs shelter, but our market model has had mixed success in providing it efficiently. Perhaps discussing other models for government intervention, like funding more mixed-income co-op projects, and individual options, like starting a co-housing community, would be a fresh direction for your readers to explore.
Watching all of the overblown (pardon the pun) hurricane coverage on TV, I’d be looking for the August numbers on U.S. GDP to come in below forecasts (both because of the weak economy, and because of the hurricane shutdowns). I actually think that after all the revisions are in, August 2011 may end up being the first month of a recession for the U.S.
And, as we all know: Bad News = Bad Markets
Even a GIANT jobs bill from Obama won’t help, since that would take months to really change behaviours.
Also, don’t forget that we’re only a year away from the next US election — get ready for Fear and Doomsday Media 24×7!!!
Post 115, RRSP Meltdown
Can blowing up your RRSP and keeping the proceeds for TFSA+Non-Registered accounts really be this easy?
Would I really get a tax credit for my investment loan interest equal to my tax payable?
As described on the other guy’s blog, this looks way too simple for their not to be some awful catch!
Have managed to own rental properties, and deducted all mortgage interest. Actually only paid the interest. The houses went up great. Sold 3. Kept 2. Made out like a bandit. But now, how do I get my hard earned RRSPs out without paying tax? I will not buy RRSPs anymore.
I know you are holiday, hope you have a good time.
Is there a book I can get to help me with this. Sounds wonderful. Single on Sunday.
#140 anjing bau on 08.27.11 at 4:27 pm
Good stuff thanks for the links.
Re:Bee die off
Quite a bit of postulating on the intertubes about the Bayer connection. I believe there may have even been some links posted here at GF.
http://www.prwatch.org/spin/2011/01/9840/leaked-epa-memos-may-explain-massive-bee-die
That is the thing about science, rarely are things straightforward and easy to explain.
Look at the cod stock declines. Populations are bouncing back but nobody could ever pin down the exact reason for the crash. Yes overfishing but there seemed to be more to the story thee as well.
Beach Girl on 08.28.11 at 4:27 am “I actually went out on a date tonight. No he was not my knight in shiny armor, actually more like a RETARD wearing tin foil.”
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LOL Ain’t it the truth?
#183 Utopia,
You asked, “Why is it that the essentials are being overlooked though…like food supplies and the strength of our civilization.”
We measure life based on the assumption of constant growth in GDP based on quarterly reports. This creates a short term view of everything including how we treat our planet. We are therefore prepared to sacrifice important parts of our ecosystem, such as bees, if they get in the way of meeting our growth objectives. Meanwhile we are undermining the long term viability of our planet by destroying an ecosystem that took millions of years to evolve. The entire Food Inc. debate comes down to short versus long term thinking.
We are short sighted creatures. Never more than now. 80% of the stock traded on the exchanges today are done by computers and controlled by algorithms. The new value is speed with competitive advantages being given to those traders who have a connection closest to the Internet Pipe. These idiots won’t stop until they blow up the economy again. Madness.
Moneta: “All our growth has been obtained without accounting for externalities, or the true cost of things. Our governments are broke and have not choice but to lie.”
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Well, maybe governments should trim their expenses, live within their means….like the rest of us. Quit catering to….well, anyone. They’re broke because of their blatant mismanagement.
#170 Cookie Monster,
Please, no more with that wingnut Ayn Rand. She failed to understand human nature as it is and simply used her objectivist approach to justify unregulated free markets. In retrospect she was a quack.
Yves Smith posted a 1959 interview with her last week on her sight. Check it out and the comments below:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/mike-wallace-1959-interview-of-ayn-rand.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29
@#176 Bobby
Sorry for the “typos” . I meant to write your name as ‘Booby” . ……..and your rich too, wow! I guess thats why you like paying more taxes. Idiot :)
Must be a realtor……….enjoy the sunny weather during Open House.
ANYONE from Ontario wish they could repeal their HST?
Anyone besides #190 Bottoms_Up?
#187 Beach Girl on 08.28.11 at 4:27 am
“I actually went out on a date tonight. No he was not my knight in shiny armor, actually more like a RETARD wearing tin foil. Why is everyone broke?”
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You know that stats Beach girl. This county is awash in debt and pretty much everyone is up to their eyeballs in payments of one sort or another.
High incomes are no barrier to the altar of the financially strapped either. I know of people earning terrific incomes who hardly have two bent nickels to scrape together. It is all payments to keep the picture of the lifestyle alive.
They are miserable.
I went on a date too, by the way. Had a lot of fun. She would quite happily move in with me if I asked her too. Must be my charming ways (I was trying not to be my usual obnoxious self). Anyway, I cooked her a home-made pizza. Was so engaged in the conversation though it ended up burnt and came smoldering out of the oven. We laughed like hell and ate it anyway. It was a terrific night.
Sometimes, life is what you make it.
@ Booby
I noticed your rebuttal to my comments on the HST was focussed on my spelling.
Any “Pro” HST numbers you’d like to share?
Please note #185 comment on HST and delayed purhases. An extra 7% tax on real estate sales.
Yeah… the HST was Greeeeaaaaattttt for the economy.
Nothing more than a desperate cash grab from a fiscally irresponsible govt.
Any Ontarians out there wish they were able to rescind the HST “Labour tax grab’?
@#187 Beach Girl
His name wasn’t “Bobby” was it?
Just askin’ :)
199 Mike (and Beach girl too) It certainly isnt a strategy
that works for everybody all the time. You definitely have to sit down with your advisor and accountant.
Off the top of my head, it may work well for sombody who is now trying to limit the size of their RRSP for future tax purposes, has considerable equity in their house to borrow against, but also have enough time and income left before retirement to repay the debt.
The reason I would prefer the use of home equity is that if the stocks themselves serve as collateral(sp?) then you will have to inject cash if their value falls.
#157 squidly77
A few more things Mr. Squidly:
-China is America’s Bankster-in-Chief, holding more tons of crappy US “paper” than any other country;
-it has developed an aircraft carrier-killing missile which begins to rewrite naval combat history;
-America has more people depending on government-aided food stamps than any other industrial country;
-its infrastructure, especially highways and railways, is beginning to pale alongside new Chinese roads, railways and now a huge seaport in Brazil from which giant Chinese-built bulkers will carry endless supplies of iron ore and other non-renewables to China to be turned into this and that;
-the US military’s budget is helping to slow the US economy recovery, plain and simple;
In sum: America cannot remain on top of the pile if it keeps accumulating debt at the rate it is now. Something has to give and it will but when and through what specific event are the key questions, not why.
Otherwise your jingoistic was just fine, in 1952.
Sorry it didnt work out for you! As part of todays therapy, please try this exercise:
Think of your favourite colour and list three attributes.
(Dont use wishy-washy descriptions like “nice”. For the
colour red for example, perhaps “vibrant” is better)
Then think of your favourite animal and list three attributes. It can also be specific to your pet.
C’mon beach girl, if you show me yours I will show you mine!
Bobby on 08.27.11 at 11:56 pm For #143, The Emperor’s Clothes,
“My friend, if you are trying to impress me with your financial prowess you will have to come up with some bigger numbers than that.”
************************************
What ‘bigger numbers’ would you like? He explained the situation perfectly.
#202 OttawaMike
“Quite a bit of postulating on the intertubes about the Bayer connection. I believe there may have even been some links posted here at GF.
———————————–
Yes, Mike, there has been a lot of interest in the problems with bees. It is of global interest too as the class of chemicals suspected of contributing to the bee die-offs are now exported to 120 countries.
They are everywhere. One of the dangers they pose is that these chemicals can persist in the soil for a decade or more and could continue to affect bees long after their use has ended.
That is one of the reasons for so much concern. If the evidence finally does prove conclusive and find neonicitinoids are killing off the bees the impacts will linger for many years.
Bayer is not going to fade away willingly with this product either as it’s global sales for this chemical alone are now in excess of a billion dollars annually.
Hopefully we will have answers soon. Following the disastrous die-off of bees in Wales (39%) and much of England two years ago, the government there committed two million pounds (3.2 million dollars) to research the problem. That work is ongoing
Now we await the data.
“How blind have we become? If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck… it’s no eagle.”
Well, when I purchased and brought to them a copy of “Money Road”, explaining the basis behind it and RE and how this will help to guide you in your decision making in the future, so you can stay on track…..they refused it.
They refused to take it, they refused to read it. They do not believe RE will correct and what do they need financial advice for ? They are sitting in a home that will make them rich someday, they do not need a financial plan, they are living in it.
So, I kept the book and brought them each a 5 gallon bucket full of nice soft beach sand and a feather duster for each of them.
They said, “What’s that for ?”
I said, “You make a little hole in the middle of the sand, stick your head in, and stuff the feather duster in the back of your pants. Because if you’re going to act like an ostrich, you might as well look like one”.
Not appreciated.
Well, maybe governments should trim their expenses, live within their means….like the rest of us. Quit catering to….well, anyone. They’re broke because of their blatant mismanagement
———–
If they came out and told us the truth, they’d have to wear Kevlar vests from head to toe and still I’m not sure they’d make it through.
Stuck between a rock and a hard place. Solutions won’t be coming form government because the population will not let them.
The Emperor’s Clothes on 08.27.11 at 4:40 pm
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A while back someone remarked that in Vancouver, retirees don’t have to pay muni taxes and can just push it off to their estate.
If retirees had to pay their taxes, many would have been forced to downsize. More houses would have been listed and that would have helped keep a lid on real estate prices. Just a thought.
So let’s get back to those unpaid muni taxes… it just seems to me that there must be some kind of hole in the government’s budget if a growing segment of the population is not paying muni taxes and I can’t help but wonder what kind of lies they must spew to get the cash flow they need to keep the services going.
The problem always comes down to nobody wanting to pay taxes but everybody thinking they are entitled to top notch services.
I just know that it’s going to be whack-a-mole until the dust settles. If they cut a tax, they’ll pick my pocket some other way.
The BC property tax deferral program is ludicrous, but consistent with that province’s approach to pumping up real estate values at all costs. Anyone over 55 can defer all property tax payments until (a) the home is sold or (b) death and settlement of the estate. Ironically, this all but guarantees higher taxation. — Garth
Garth! Come to Montreal and hang out!
Garth please keep up the good work. This blog provides the opportunity for like minded folks to connect and share ideas and info. This blog transcends all generations who visit and provides a realistic, holistic perspective from numerous vantage points.
For those that are misguided on the BC HST – The HST killed local business – most go to the States for shopping, local business has taken a hit and I am still waiting for the jobs – it’s been two years now, no reduction in consumer prices. The HST was brought in to pay for the Olympic bill fiascal, IPP’s – Bridges etc.
There will still be political fall out – it is evident that big business controls those who are currently in office. Are we at the Tipping point yet. MSM in BC trying to get readers to subscribe to their news misinformation papers. Those who vote (the older generations) don’t like liars. I agree the doomers should stop and think how we can fix things. I for one hope the US gets it’s house in order and rethink their priorities. What ever happened to fact based reporting, thinking, reasoning.
Garth – Thank you for your time and effort and think about running for PM. Enjoy your ride, and Dan in Victoria always a pleasure – enjoy the salt spray.
For # 209 The Emperor’s Clothes,
Sadly my friend you don’t get it. The government will have to make up the funding shortfall somehow, either by raising taxes or cutting funding. This cutting will be accomplished by either provincial employee layoffs or reducing programs. An HST type tax, or consumption tax if you wish, is the fairest way to raise revenues.
Just take a look at California. They are required by law to have a referendum anytime they wish to raise taxes. Now, who do you think would vote yes to raise taxes. Not many, with the result there are no tax increases. But guess what, California is broke with the looming threat of massive civil servant layoffs and a drastic cut in services.
No, I’m not a realtor and it is you’re rich, not your rich. And I don’t like to pay taxes any more than the next gentleman. However, I’m a realist and realize that if you want properly funded schools and hospitals it takes money, and someone has to pay it. It is called taxes.
Unless of course, you are from the loopy left and you believe someone else pays.
I always thought this arrangement was ironic, because the deferred taxes leave a hole in the budget, which needs to be filled with higher taxes for everyone, including the deferring retirees.
It’s like a big circle jerk.
I just want to know one thing. Why did it take a month after ballots were due to reveal the results pf the BC HST referrendum. Did they have but one person counting them by hand? Or did the Liberals need some strategizing time? Tell me they didn’t know the results the day after and a month before telling us. Just like the HST “was not under consideration before the last election”. ;-) BTW I voted to keep the HST but even amid no real alternative I certainly agree they (the BC Liberals) deserve the slap upside the head even though it is we (constituents) who will suffer the ensuing headache.
The BC property tax deferral program is ludicrous, but consistent with that province’s approach to pumping up real estate values at all costs. Anyone over 55 can defer all property tax payments until (a) the home is sold or (b) death and settlement of the estate. Ironically, this all but guarantees higher taxation. — Garth
——–
Essentially, the HST issue is just the tip of the iceberg.
#206 Junius on 08.28.11 at 11:18 am
Yves is wrong on this one, I’ve seen that Mike Wallace interview many times before and I find everything she says agreeable to me.
Yves’s number one assertion for why Ayn Rand is wrong is that Ayn’s theories depend on man being capable of rational logical thinking, which is true, many people are capable of critical thinking and many people are not, so the ones who are are the creators of wealth tend to be capable of rational thought, while the rest who are not capable or effective become subsidiary to great leaders, like Steve Jobs. So, Ayn Rand sounds right to me.
Nobel prize winner Herbert Simon studied how woefully limited human cognitive capacities. More Nobels have been awarded for behavioral economics, which (among other things) has catalogued numerous cognitive biases.
——
This statement is kind of funny, what Yves is talking about is exactly what she’s suffering from, cognitive bias. Yves has her own cognitive bias against man’s ability to reason because she is listening to Nobel Prize winners who support her bias, but I’m sure she’s wrong on many levels. I personally use it everyday, I think for a living, it’s how I succeed. I don’t dig ditches as much as I’d like to anymore.
220 Don – HST did not increase the price of many
consumer goods. People go to the US because of the favourable exchange and often generally better deals.
218 Moneta “The problem always comes down to nobody
wanting to pay taxes but everybody thinking they are
entitled to top notch services.”
Absolutely.
Garth,
The doomers are dissenters, they are pointing out that the emperor has no clothes, that central banks and their inflationary monetary policy is theft. Don’t put your head in the sand, and don’t encourage your readers to do the same.
“Society can and does execute its own mandates: and if it issues wrong mandates instead of right, or any mandates at all in things with which it ought not to meddle, it practices a social tyranny more formidable than many kinds of political oppression, since, though not usually upheld by such extreme penalties, it leaves fewer means of escape, penetrating much more deeply into the details of life, and enslaving the soul itself.” John Steward Mill
In praise of dissent:
http://www.odemagazine.com/doc/71/in-praise-of-dissent/all
Junius on 08.28.11 at 11:18 am
#170 Cookie Monster,
———
Semantics does it every time!
ra·tion·al
1. agreeable to reason; reasonable; sensible: a rational plan for economic development.
2. having or exercising reason, sound judgment, or good sense: a calm and rational negotiator.
3. being in or characterized by full possession of one’s reason; sane; lucid: The patient appeared perfectly rational.
4. endowed with the faculty of reason: rational beings.
5. of, pertaining to, or constituting reasoning powers: the rational faculty.
———–
Nearly everyone is endowed with the faculty to reason but not everyone has the right facts.
If someone is making the wrong decisions because their thought process is based on the wrong facts, they can still be rational.
#147 Harvard Grad: “The world is made up of only 2 types of people.”
Those who think the world is made up of only two types of people, and those who don’t.
Therefore, someone can be wrong ALL the time and still be rational… as long as they don’t let their reptilian brain take over.
Good points 220 don but garth also transends the space and time fabric as well
Have a great ride Garth!
If you get to my neighbourhood, drop in. BBQ’s almost always ready, fridge (and contents) is always cold.
Just got back from a neighbour’s cottage on the Northumberland Strait overlooking the ocean. As usual, she had snacks prepared, then oodles of mussels, etc. We always contribute w/steaks, wine, etc. She dug up tiny red potatoes from the garden – delicish. We had a wonderful time walking on the beach at low tide. Because of Hurricaine Irene we left early today.
They are the most generous & social people we know. They have numerous friends and try to schedule all of their friends and family to spend time at their cottage every summer. Her husband had a stroke several years ago and most have a hard time understanding him – including his wife. Sometimes, she just says ‘yah’. I really miss our great discussions (mostly political ) I had with him. Imagine how frustrating it must be for him.
Wind is really picking up here but we are prepared for Irene.
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#174 Timing is Everything — “In bad times, the rich usually get richer. – Stuart Wilde”
Good quote, as rich people know how to ride out the bad times, by re-arranging their portfolios and investments, reducing their outgoing expenditures and thereby profiting from panic-stricken investors.
Then it becomes a little easier to help those less fortunate as money, like everything else here, is just temporary. Here today, gone tomorrow.
#179 Dan in Victoria — “Had fresh caught salmon filleted on the BBQ tonight along with some large prawns we caught, topped off with some fresh dungeness crab. A little dash of home made wine, fresh corn on the cobb and veggies from the local farmers. taking care of the $$$$ is good , but enjoying life and friends well……….”
You sure know how to make a grown man cry! Cheers!
#223 Devil’s Advocate — “Why did it take a month after ballots were due to reveal the results pf the BC HST referrendum. Did they have but one person counting them by hand? Or did the Liberals need some strategizing time?”
To answer your questions, refer to the 2000 and 2004 US elections, which dubya both stole (won illegally) due to ballots being trashed. Chances are the result was greater than what the m$m let on.
Hi Garth – Just curious. You host this blog 24/7. I honestly don’t know how you do it, along with those who castigate you. Do you & Dorothy ever get away – not just to your bunker – but to visit, experience & appreciate some of the rest of our world? It may not be your thing.
I’ve spent time in at least 12 countries – hubby maybe more but & more exotic locations than I. We may have less money to invest now than those who did not travel, but we have great memories and experiences. I think we are fortunate. Money is not everything & t I think we’ll be Ok
No one has answered how I can retrieve my RRSPs without paying tax.
And Bobby, whoever you are, I did not pay for dinner, but should have. As it was one of the longest nights of my life.
Yes Daisy Mae, I connect with you.
Harvard Grad, I bet you graduated with a push from a vocational school from Oshawa, or the likes. If you were so well informed, why would you be socializing with the lower class?
#213 Is funny. He will show me his. I think Tin Foil was attempting that. LOL.
Also like buddy who burns a $3.97 pizza. WOW, I am impressed. Hopefully you gave her a vodka cooler to keep the heat down. She must be really sad or depressed to go for that. All the best though.
But it is so much fun to be on this blog.
#87 Bob Copeland on 08.27.11 at 8:01 am
Nice, sincere post Bob, IMHO.
@ #221 Bobby
NOW we’re getting somewhere! Excellent points.
For the record.
a) No, I’m not an NDP supporter or a lunatic with a socialist agenda.
b) Yes, I agree that the govt will now be forced to implement new taxes to raise the money that they budgeted for with the HST numbers(there’s that darn revenue “neutral” tax rearing its ugly head). But the tax increases will be up front and impossible to hide.
c) BC the next California “north”? I don’t think so. This referendum only came about after the legitmate threat of “Recall” began scaring the bejeezus out of Liberal back benchers. They faced the real possibility of getting booted out of their ridings and facing new elections, constituency by constituency.It was very difficult to get 700,000 legitimate signatures within the required time frame for the Recall campaign. I dont think we’re going to be sliding down the “California Proposition Ballot” slope. We witnessed a rare occurrance that I dont think will be repeated anytime soon.
d) I dont like paying taxes as much as you but I hate throwing tax dollars away even more.( $600 Million for BC Place roof comes to mind). AND I HATE TAXES that are slid in under the door when they think we are either not paying attention or too stupid to realize whats happening.
e) User fees and lay offs, Yup. Irreguardless of whether the HST or old PST/GST are used to collect money from us. There will be more user fees and more layoffs looming. Our aging demographics make it inevitable. Fewer taxpayers = fewer taxes = fewer services.
1970 saw 9 taxpayers for 1 old age pensioner
2010 has 5 taxpayers for 1 old age pensioner
2030 will see 3 taxpayers for 1 old age pensioner
Get ready for the Big Nasty Govt to cut,cut,cut services or raise raise raise taxes. I believe it will be cuts because we (as taxpayers) have reached our limit.
I do “get it”. Unfortunately the heads of the Nurses union and the teachers’ unions still don’t.
Get ready for lots of strikes in 2012. Cause there’s no money in the pot and the taxpayers are saying enough.
“The BC property tax deferral program is ludicrous, but consistent with that province’s approach to pumping up real estate values at all costs. Anyone over 55 can defer all property tax payments until (a) the home is sold or (b) death and settlement of the estate. Ironically, this all but guarantees higher taxation. — Garth”
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It’s been around for a number of years….and altho’ I haven’t look into it, I’m sure there’s a high price to pay for tax deferral just like the ‘reverse mortgage’…which we know can over time eat up all the equity.
#225 Cookie Monster,
You said, “Ayn’s theories depend on man being capable of rational logical thinking, which is true, many people are capable of critical thinking and many people are not, so the ones who are are the creators of wealth tend to be capable of rational thought”.
This is the critical mistake. Alan Greenspan was a devotee of Ayn Rand and he even admitted he got it wrong.
First of all, in order to be rational we need to have all the information to make a decision. We almost never have all or even enough information to properly evaluate all options.
Secondly, if you have not learned one thing from this Blog and the Housing Bubble it should be that people are more often governed by their emotions than their rational self. Call them their “animal spirits” or their lizard brain this is where they live most of their time.
As for Steve Jobs, I am a huge admirer but he did not become a success by being a cold, hard rational leader. Quite the opposite. Great leaders like Jobs understand that humans are highly complicated beings and many decisions they make are based on emotion. Apple is one of the most emotional brands in the world – look at their followers.
Ayn Rand was a wingnut. She and her followers were wrong. Allan Greenspan is the most obvious choice but there are many others.
Devils Advocate: “….but even amid no real alternative I certainly agree they (the BC Liberals) deserve the slap upside the head even though it is we (constituents) who will suffer the ensuing headache.”
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I don’t see any reason to cut the essential programs. The budget needs to be streamlined…the non-essentials need to be eliminated, including top heavy administration. The government needs to quit catering to special interest groups — if they can’t make it on their own, they don’t. We taxpayers can’t fund everything.
Hey Betamax – go jump off the next bridge you cross – the world can use one less a-hole.
I just made a generalized comment, if you took it to heart, your a bigger nose picker then I thought…. let me know if you plan on any of G’s future seminars in Toronto, lets see if your as brave as you are behind a keyboard.
G – when you get wankers like this, I would throw in the towel too – they are the proverbially leaches.
Bobby on 08.28.11 at 1:23 pm For # 209 The Emperor’s Clothes,
“Sadly my friend you don’t get it. The government will have to make up the funding shortfall somehow, either by raising taxes or cutting funding. This cutting will be accomplished by either provincial employee layoffs or reducing programs.”
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Yes, he DOES get it.
If this results in layoffs and reduced programs…so be it. It’s just about time!
Utopia et al – Things I’ve learned from the bees :
Our deck is a bee death trap. It’s glassed in on 2 sides, so the bees and wasps fly in , trap themselves against the windows , and die of exhaustion and dehydration. Their little bee brains can’t grasp the following concept -Turn around. Fly OUT the same way you came in.
So along comes the idiot who has to help them out. Me. I’m hypersensitive to these critters, just slightly south of anaphylactic, but nevertheless ,I use a simple technique to rid my deck of bees. No, it’s not the flyswatter.
Step 1 – Keep an empty yogurt container and a small piece of cardboard handy. Trap the bee/wasp up against the window by placing the plastic container over it – tight, tight against the glass. This usually takes a few tries and for the uninitiated it can be scary because it feels like your wildly buzzing and moving target will turn on you with its stinger and make you the target instead. But, trust me, I’ve never been stung while doing this. Knock on wood.
Step 2 – You have the bee trapped against the glass and inside your container. Now take your piece of cardboard and..oops. I missed an important step. Make sure that BEFORE you trap your bee you already have the cardboard in your other hand. This is vital. The bee inside the container is no longer a happy camper. However, show no fear and proceed to lift up one edge of the container ever so slightly. Give yourself just enough room to slide the cardboard between the glass and the lip of the container but NOT a big enough gap for the bee to escape. Sliding in that cardboard is the trickly part because it has to be executed firmly, quickly, and yet at the same time, delicately, so as not to damage any of the bee’s bodily parts.
Step 3 – Move the container away from the window , all the while keeping your hand firmly on the cardboard lid. Ignore the angry buzzing. It only SEEMS like they can sting you through plastic and cardboard. Take the container to an open area and in one swift move lift the lid and give the container a violent shake – like you’re going to throw it.
Voila- catch and release.
Most sunny days ( increasingly rare here in the Okanagan ) I save half a dozen or more bees and wasps using this method. Thousands upon thousands of lives saved over the years. One would think this would add up to good bee karma. Sadly, it doesn’t. Many a time it’s been goodbye yardwork – hello emerg. But never because of the catch and release.
Wasps are very dangerous at this time of the year. In spring they’re focused on nesting but by late summer their numbers have exploded and food competion is fierce. They also get very stunned by about mid-August , are in -your -face constantly and – where normally they’ll fly away after landing on you- they will now sting you because…well just because they want to.
So- life lessons I’ve learned from these beneficial and sometimes deadly creatures :
1 – Kindness is not always rewarded with kindness. Sometimes you get stung anyway. It’s the nature of the beast. Carry on with kindness, regardless.
2- Flying up against the glass in what you think is the way out can be deadly. There are times in your life when you need to reverse course in a hurry. It can save your life.
Utopia, the dying bees are a small part of the picture. Dead birds are dropping out of the skies by the thousands in some areas. Organs pulverized.
A friend of the family has homing pigeons. Of the 50 released, NOT ONE made it back. All our over-wintering sparrows were wiped out in my backyard in Jan. 2009. The raptors and quail were fine, just the sparrows died a gruesome death.The Dept. of Agriculture in Oliver or Osoyoos ( I forget which ) didn’t give a damn. After numerous phone calls and their promises of follow-ups, I realized I was getting the bum’s rush and threw out the sparrow corpses in my freezer.
And so it goes.
http://nelson.beckman.illinois.edu/courses/neuroethol/models/magnetoreception/magnetoreception.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-14685612
Killer Chicken or Imploding Boomer? on 08.28.11 at 3:14 pm 220 Don – “HST did not increase the price of many consumer goods. People go to the US because of the favourable exchange and often generally better deals.”
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The HST increased the price of EVERYTHING.
#229 Moneta,
You said, “Nearly everyone is endowed with the faculty to reason but not everyone has the right facts.”
Agreed. I would go further and say that in complex matters we never have all the facts.
The other point is that even with the facts we will often be swayed more by our emotions than reason. A look back at US elections and the use of “wedge issues” from racisms to homophobia and other fear mongering have been too often successful in getting people to vote against their rational interest.
Most relevant to this Blog is the use of fear and greed to drive people to make irrational (or insane) decisions regarding their economic welfare.
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Garth, Let It All Out Buddy! IMF Chief calls for more bank bailouts (Greater slavery), plus other links; Do As I Say, not as I do. Terrific way to incite revolutions; Keynesians collapsing; Obama “What a lying bastard.” 0:39 clip; Hungry Children But there’s billions for wars and the Pentagon; The Formula Not very tasty; 0:59 clip Doorbell (govts. need money); Derivatives Divas and Katrina; 5:05 clip US dismembered by its creditors.
New Mortgages “Future home buyers would have to put 20 percent down to get the best home loans.” US — about time); 0:24 clip Reserve Bank boss says further cuts coming; QE3 Yea or nay? Plus 5:16 clip Cutting spending while increasing inflow of money via QE3; Pay mortgages, but don’t eat. “It is past time for debt cancellation.”;
History Rewritten Look at the heading, except it was Prescott Bush (dubya’s granpappy) who funded Hitler and the Third Reich; Libya So much for NATO – US intervention, and Stealing Explains why China and Russia have been shut out of talks; 9:52 clip Truth about the MEast, from the horse’s mouth.
Islamophobia If a group of people are badly treated, they will react. Isn’t hard to figure out; Lying m$m That’s why they are boob tubes and toilet paper; BP can be taken to the cleaners (spot on!); Potential dam failure in Maryland; Total Tyranny The UK.
#244 Harverd Gradyouate,
You really said, “they are the proverbially leaches”?
Please tell me you didn’t learn that word at Harvard.
Proverbially? Really?
So much for the Ivy League EduKAshion.
it is so hard trying to kick cigarettes…..”Can’t concentrate, can’t read, can’t sit still. Can’t think straight…”
hey bro it is a tough road, I tried a bunch of times and finally succeeded, haven’t had a puff for 14 years now; but it was really really hard. Used to call them “thinking sticks” because I felt so stunned without them I could hardly function, let alone work.
Gradually things start to make sense and the wool comes off your brain. I remember someone saying “the 3’s are the hardest…”, ie 3 minutes, 3 hours, 3 days, 3 months, 3 years….I totally agree.
You win in little increments. And a breakdown is not a complete failure, just means you have to knuckle down again.
Good luck, and BTW I have never commented on your posts but I really appreciate your experience and perspective and I suspect we would have a good laugh and good conversation if we ever met!
take care
@#245 Daisy Mae
Wanna get married ? LOL
Folks, Randy and I were discussing the possibility that captain Garth may never come back. We saw him whipping past Sunnyvale Trailer Park on his Harley and we know Nova Scotia is a long way off from his home in the Caledon hills of Ontario. We may have to get a new leader to keep this pathetic blog going. Ricky has suggested Smoking Man as a possible candidate. “Randy get the car and some scotch, we have to catch up to Garth before he discovers Ricky and Julian’s weed field…”
#195 BrianT on 08.28.11 at 9:24 am
An oil-depleted economy is basically no economy at all, at least as we know it. I haven’t read Rubin’s book, but as for the oil sands, or tar pits, or whatever we call them, the reserves are indeed vast. But what really matters is the rate of oil production, which in the tar sands case is necessarily lower than oil from conventional sources because of the huge amounts of energy required for production. I believe Nicole Foss would say that based on EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) the tar sands are a net loser. But I guess by using some financial and fiscal legerdemain (as well as ignore the “externalities”) Canada can pretend we are the Saudi Arabia of North America.
Homes are languishing in Edmonton.
247 Daisy – if the good was previously PSTed, and
everything was GSTed, how did HST (PST + GST)
increase its price?
I wondered how anyone could gain admission to Harvard, let alone graduate, without the ability to spell or complete basic sentences. Then I figured it out…
http://www.harvardschool.org/
237 Beach girl – I gave you another link but I dont see my comment posted. Garth?