Whatever

For some perverse reason, I talk to you every day. Nobody pays me to write this pathetic blog. There’s no advertising or revenue stream from the site. In fact, it costs a bundle just to have it hosted on servers with giant dogs surrounding them. Yeah, occasionally somebody throws me twenty bucks to buy a book, but nobody in Canada survives as an author.

For the past three years or so I’ve posted here most days, and mostly enjoyed it. It started as an online addendum to my book, ‘Greater Fool,’ published when nobody remotely believed real estate in Canada could ever stumble. This is a subject which matters, since we have most of our net worth buried in a single asset. Besides, real estate is alluring, emotional, sexy. I enjoy good real estate porn right along with… you.

And most days it’s been fun being here. From zero visits then, there are now six million a year. That’s cool. Most people – well over 95% – come, read, enjoy (I think) and go back to being normal, getting creamy hot flashes over Bosch appliances.

My views haven’t changed. Real estate’s in a precarious spot at the moment for tons of economic reasons. But having said that, you don’t change human nature, and humans want shelter. So I try to explain why owning isn’t always better than renting, how some markets got toxic, how to buy, sell and finance, and why real estate should never constitute the bulk of your net worth – unless you’re a greater fool.

Of course, you can’t talk real estate without talking economics. It makes up a fifth of the country’s GDP, after all, and recently destroyed the American middle class. It’s responsible for record debt, is inextricably linked to the cost of money and impacts consumer confidence, which influences spending, which makes up two-thirds of the economy. It’s all connected. And right now it all wobbles.

This cranks me, weirdo that I am. Connecting the dots, trying to discern what lies ahead, is an interesting exercise. And along the way if I can use knowledge or experience to help people, then it’s worth the time torn away from my pining wife and dog.

Usually. But not lately.

Over recent months a small group of people – tiny relative to the total number of readers – has come here to pump and hump their own agenda. Characterized by a negative outlook and utter disdain for anyone who disagrees, they’ve used this space daily to ridicule those who don’t own gold or disbelieve the global economy’s screwed. Rude, abusive, petulant and usually juvenile, they stand in stark contrast to all those who want a respectful but rousing debate about housing and how messed up folks in Vancouver are.

Hard to know if these people are impassioned zealots blindly consumed with their own ideology, or just pricks. Whatever. Same result.

So, it’s over. This is not an Armageddon blog. Not a gold blog. Not an America-is-insolvent blog. Not a tin foil blog. Not a doomer guns-&-god blog. And not a place for antisocial metalheads to come and take a dump.

Be respectful, and you can post. Add to the conversation or the argument, and you’re always welcome. Express yourself without shredding others, and you’re free to speak. I’m a tolerant guy. I’m a democrat. I believe in digital democracy.

Just watch me.

272 comments ↓

#1 Boombust on 08.02.11 at 10:16 pm

Very true, Garth. So many crackpots, so little time.

#2 Publius Enigma on 08.02.11 at 10:16 pm

About damn time.

Now stick to your guns.

#3 jason gouin on 08.02.11 at 10:18 pm

Don’t let the dickhead few stop you from doing the great work you are doing for others. You have saved probably thousands from making horrible financial decision that will reek havoc on their lifes.

Maybe you just drop the comments section or better yet find someone level headed who will volunteer to moderate the comments. I am sure there are tons of good people out there willing to help. Split the duties you focus on the writing, they focus on the comments?

#4 bill on 08.02.11 at 10:18 pm

you are very patient Garth.
I would have sent them to the sprouting chambers long ago…
I look forward to the new version of this fine blog.

#5 DM in C on 08.02.11 at 10:19 pm

Nice — Garth is invoking the war measures act on the blog. About time.

Bravo.

#6 Karen Limacher on 08.02.11 at 10:22 pm

I enjoy reading all that you write and oftern pass it forward. There is somehting entcing about your expressive style that lends me to seek out more!

#7 Liz Seger on 08.02.11 at 10:22 pm

It seems to be the way of the world nowadays Mr. Turner, people with agendas, being hateful if you don’t agree with them. I don’t know what it is , just general rudeness of people today. Or partisanship gone amok. But it’s not just you, it’s everywhere, facebook, twitter, in society , in government, in churches.

#8 Joe on 08.02.11 at 10:22 pm

It’s been a while since we got read the riot act, probably we were about due. Duly noted.

#9 Gold Member on 08.02.11 at 10:24 pm

Can you please also block any post with the word “first” in it.
Otherwise I’m with ya G money.

#10 Casey on 08.02.11 at 10:24 pm

It’s your blog. Moderate the comments.

Thanks for writing. I’m a near-daily reader.

#11 pablo on 08.02.11 at 10:26 pm

DELETED.

#12 dodgedbullet on 08.02.11 at 10:26 pm

Well said, Garth.

The (sane) collective thoughts here have validated the decision I made 2 years ago not to buy a home in Toronto (My GF is almost convinced).

We looked and I came to the conclusion that a home, whilst nice, was a very expensive luxury (My GF is almost convinced).

Man the condos we saw were tiny!!! (Under 300k).

For the most part this place is a sea of serene sanity.

Thanks Garth, thanks BlogDogs.

DB.

#13 TurnerNation on 08.02.11 at 10:26 pm

“Cuba’s National Assembly approved a plan to enact a new law permitting the sale of real estate, which was banned after Fidel Castro’s 1959 revolution.

The legislation is expected to go into effect by the end of the year as part of a major overhaul of Cuba’s stagnant economy.

Owners will need simple notary approval to buy or sell a home and will pay taxes on the transaction.

Many Cubans have already started to advertise their homes for sale on the website http://www.revolico.com, a kind of Cuban Craigslist that is often blocked on the island”

#14 Hazel on 08.02.11 at 10:26 pm

No one pays me to read it either…but I enjoy it even if I don’t tell you very often! Thanks for getting rid of the riff raff!!

#15 Smoking Man on 08.02.11 at 10:27 pm

Wow amazing how vegas can completely crash you hard drive……Debt problem crisis ? no one on Las Vegas Blvd cared…If there is depresion in Vagas you won’t see it on the strip….burb…………………

Trying to catch up here…….wow markets got killed even though they got the deal…….
Now that is a suprise…….

I grabed a few real estate flyers,, man homes are selling for way below the replacment cost.

I would buy one for sure but that town would eat me up so fast..Between the free booze, eye candy, and gambling. I would go through my money fast. Glad its far away…

#16 Dave on 08.02.11 at 10:27 pm

“Just watch me” is a communist’s quip (Trudeau).

Are you trying to say you are a communist?

That would explain your lack of doom and gloom.

This comment says more about you and your site than anything else. — Garth

#17 T.O. Bubble Boy on 08.02.11 at 10:29 pm

amen.

#18 Pseu on 08.02.11 at 10:29 pm

Thanks Garth. Now I can start reading the comments again. :)

#19 Not Doomed. on 08.02.11 at 10:31 pm

Get back in the ring Turner!

#20 Off the river on 08.02.11 at 10:32 pm

Well said Garth. While I tend to think there is a lot of truth in what the doomers are saying; we are headed for rough times, I can’t understand the demeaning manner people act towards one another.

Instead of trying to be helpful and respectful, they are demeaning and rude. Not very nice when they are essentially guests in your domain.

(Still think gold will hit 2000 though)

#21 squidly77 on 08.02.11 at 10:32 pm

During the past few months doomers were drawn to your site like Moths to a fire and they have been very rude indeed.

Living a life of gloom and doom is just a waste.

#22 TurnerNation on 08.02.11 at 10:34 pm

Well a fuddleduddle or two won’t hurt us.

#23 Raincouver on 08.02.11 at 10:35 pm

heard there is still some crazy ppl not HAM buying million dollar Ditchmond shacks. Everyone in east richmond still believes I guess. Heard from some guys working on a shack in richmond they have no work in ABBY and come to richmond to make 10 bucks an hour to work construction.

#24 McSteve on 08.02.11 at 10:35 pm

Weird thing about the internet. Anonymity breeds stupidity.

Garth:

What are your thoughts on the markets? The S&P is down despite super profits. The TSX, laden with juicy banks, glorious oil companies and materials (including gold, Gold, GOLD!!!), has slipped almost 10% in the last 6 months. I’m thinking it’s getting close for the brave among us to get ready to back up the truck. Suncor at $35 dollars? Someone pinch me!

#25 Kurt on 08.02.11 at 10:36 pm

This will be especially helpful to the occasional readers. Myself, I’ve figured out who the wingnuts are and just scroll past them. I’ve often wondered at your patience and restrain in moderating this blog, and your commitment to diversity of opinion. With the tighter focus, it should be easier and more fun to read. Keep fighting the good fight!

#26 DML on 08.02.11 at 10:36 pm

Good call.Really enjoy the blog and most of the comments.

#27 Helicopter Ben on 08.02.11 at 10:38 pm

Garth you would know better then me but i dont think all the rude people on here are the doomers and gold bugs, lots of rude people with all kinds of beliefs. your pic reminds me of a mitch hedberg joke…. … I don’t like protesting, but I don’t know how to show it

#28 ultracrystal on 08.02.11 at 10:38 pm

People talk about this things Garth because they are all interconnected. Unfortunately most people fail to understand that this is a very complicated system..so complicated that probably no one person fully understands. As such, in order to cope, people latch on to a few ideas or themes, such as buying gold, or hoarding toilet paper.

To this extent, what worries me the most in Canada is the group of people whom are seemingly awaiting the crash in the Canadian housing market. Some of these people are almost giddy with excitement at the prospect of such a collapse. To these people, I warn that you may feel righteous in some weird way to have held out for the past five years from buying a house, and I’m not going to judge whether that is right or wrong, but heed my warning that if the coming collapse does come, there will be a lot of collateral damage beyond the scope of simple real estate.

#29 T.O. Bubble Boy on 08.02.11 at 10:39 pm

Speaking of real estate, I noticed that there are over 60 flipper units for sale in 1 building (CityPlace “Parade” on a new street to be named Iceboat Terrace).

Anyone who says there isn’t a condo crash coming in Toronto doesn’t have his/her eyes open.

#30 Waiting in Chilliwack on 08.02.11 at 10:40 pm

Love the financial aspects of home ownership , I found this blog about four years after people around me thought I was just negative about debt levels and so on. Moderate please ,just don’t fade to black.

#31 Min in Mission on 08.02.11 at 10:43 pm

I enjoy reading the original blog post, and, many of the comments. Often, I can’t get the point of some of the posts. Perhaps I am just too dense.

Stick to your guns, “Digital democracy” – yeah, I like that too.

” impassioned zealots blindly consumed with their own ideology, or just pricks. Whatever. Same result.

So, it’s over. This is not an Armageddon blog. Not a gold blog. Not an America-is-insolvent blog. Not a tin foil blog. Not a doomer guns-&-god blog. And not a place for antisocial metalheads to come and take a dump.

Simply show those the famous “Trudeau salute”, he obviously believed in “digital democracy” too.

Keep up the good work, I have learned lots here, plus, I have had my eyes opened on many different fronts.

#32 pulse on 08.02.11 at 10:46 pm

Dear Status Quo:

With great sadness I must inform you of the decision to terminate your stubborn hold on the youth of today.

You see, there once was the ‘Greatest Generation’ who believed in an honest day’s work for an honest day’s pay. Then came a loud boom.

Due to your persistent obsession with ‘compounding returns’ on ‘investment’ you allowed (nay, encouraged) direct foreign investment into a land that many have given their life to protect. You have worshiped ivy league economists’ evaluations. You have slayed common sense by not recognizing your pursuit of endless wealth is poisoning the future. You have promoted statist institutions to compound at the expense of family relationships (that would be day care and senior care – too much trouble, eh!)

The entire time your children have been sliding, yet you have not noticed. You care only to examine your pensions and investment accounts. You have been tricked, those plans have been managed fraudulently (do you even know what OTC derivatives and Central Bank currency swaps are?)

Lastly, you have been utterly unable to accept when you are clearly wrong. We would forgive you, if only you would ask.

A peacekeeper does not make war.

Sincerely,
pulse

#33 waterloo Resident on 08.02.11 at 10:52 pm

Hi Garth !
Sorry I didn’t tell you about this, I really should have earlier on. If you want to make money from this blog, somewhere around $100,000 over the next few year just from donations from all of the people who feel that your information has helped them, then do like this guy is doing. He accepts donations and regularly gets about $100 to $500 per day in donations.

Just follow what he is doing and accept donations from readers. Here is his blog’s address:

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

I wish you all the best.

Some things I do for money. This is not one of them. — Garth

#34 MochaJava on 08.02.11 at 10:53 pm

Garth, regarding the metalheads:
Thanks to Steve Jobs, I can thumb-flick past them on my iPad.
Visit your site every day…keep up the good work!

#35 Helicopter Ben on 08.02.11 at 10:55 pm

Just to be clear you dont want american debt crisis talk or gold talk at all? cause this is all i talk about ha ha.

#36 Glen B on 08.02.11 at 10:56 pm

Hi Garth:
I’m one of those 99% who have lurked here for a couple of years but have never commented until now. Just wanted to say that I enjoy the site and your very wise advise on real estate. I appreciate it. As for your other financial advice, I think it would be very wise during normal times but I must admit that I agree with the the finanical doomers and gold bugs and feel very comfortable holding 30% of my portfolio in PMs. I’m sure there must be readers of this blog other than myself who come here to hear their comments as well as yours. Having said that, comments should be respectful. I like you Garth but with all due respect, on rare occasions you have also crossed the line from replying with cutting funny sarcasm to being being a bit of a prick yourself LOL.
Kind Regards,
Glen B

#37 In yyc on 08.02.11 at 10:57 pm

Don’t let the fringe get you down Garth, myself and the many others in the silent majority come here regularly to enjoy your humorous view of housing and the economy. Please keep up the good work!

#38 Bigboy on 08.02.11 at 10:59 pm

Thank you, it is long overdue! I read, I rarely comment. Noe my reading will be more useful.

#39 sunny on 08.02.11 at 10:59 pm

Ok,

Many thanks for writing and keeping this blog. Even though I read it regularly, I am still confused about what should I do.
I will keep short and to the point.
Where do economics stand for me and what should I do in terms of renting vs owning.
I know from the start that owning is more expensive than renting.
Here’s the situation: married couple age (she 32, he 39), 3 kids (under 8 y.o.), household income: 130k, , renting.
savings: about 200k.
Wanted: long-term living accomodations in the gta + suburbs under 300k. (if there is such a thing)
Advice: ….
Garth please fill in the blanks.

Thanks

#40 Dave on 08.02.11 at 11:00 pm

Keep fighting the good fight.

Maybe this is a stupid question but would you ever consider publishing a newsletter again?

You’re reading it. — Garth

#41 East Van on 08.02.11 at 11:01 pm

Hey Garth. Thanks for the website.

I watch the MLS listings in East vancouver weekly. In the winter there are usually about 300 to 400 SFHs for sale, and in the summer it usually peaks at somewhere between 500 and 600. The number of listings does not seem excessive, and has been very predictable over the past several years.

Question: Could prices fall without a surge in listings?

#42 a. bell on 08.02.11 at 11:03 pm

Get a moderator. Maybe ask for a volunteer, or ask one of your more level-headed posters here. I moderate another forum, there are six of us modding one forum, each with a different personality, which can round out responses. Might be too complicated here. One mod would likely suffice. It really does cut down on the abusive comments. Abusers get nuked if they don’t comply. Just my 2 cents worth.
I’ve been reading you for quite some time. Thanks. Great ideas, groovy writing style. Property is going on the market this week (took some time to convince husband)

#43 TheBigLebowski on 08.02.11 at 11:05 pm

DELETED

#44 Debt's Dark Embrace on 08.02.11 at 11:07 pm

Glad to hear it Garth. It gets tedious scanning and scrolling thru the same old bs to get to the informative,intelligent, and interesting posts.

#45 viewwest on 08.02.11 at 11:07 pm

Hi Garth,
Glad to read you’ll be editing the less useful comments. Just wanted to say that I hardly read the comments anymore because there are too many that add nothing to the discussion. However, I aim to never miss a blog posting from you! Please keep them coming, they are great.

#46 JB on 08.02.11 at 11:12 pm

You think the blog comments section is tough Garth? Try my lady friends family reunion…

I disagree with many of the blog dog opinions, hell even your opinions Garth from time to time. Nonetheless, what is this blog really all about? The numbers, and they never lie.

#47 Dad on 08.02.11 at 11:13 pm

Son, in a time before housing booms, Tulip-bubbles and futures trading, a wise man wrote thus:

“The empty vessel makes the loudest sound.”

May this vessel be the most silent of all. You do good work Garth.

#48 Calgaryillusion on 08.02.11 at 11:14 pm

No one can acurately predict market patterns. I have always respected your market analysis as it adds a balance to a market that no longer seems to follow fundamentals. I stlll think you are too harsh on gold but I love the conversation that ensues. I love your work, and it such a treasure to have housing media that is unbiased.

#49 Brad in Cowtown on 08.02.11 at 11:15 pm

#10Casey on 08.02.11 at 10:24 pm

It’s your blog. Moderate the comments.
Thanks for writing. I’m a near-daily reader.

Agreed.
I don’t agree with you always Garth, but you’re one of the best reads on the internet. Not just for the metaphors. You’re a sharp guy and the metalheads know it… that’s why they like pushing your buttons. And if I’ve ever written anything (in defense of gold) that offended you, I sincerely apologize.
Cheers

#50 Scalgary on 08.02.11 at 11:17 pm

Good call Garth…

“some things i do for money and this is not the one – Garth”. I dont think that you dont know the value of your precious advices… Its your big heart that educate the crowd….

Keep up the great work Garth….

Cheers…

#51 Kitchener1 on 08.02.11 at 11:20 pm

So true Garth so true.

Ive been reading this site and posting from almost the very start. I remeber the great discussions, sometimes economic, sometimes macro/micro, sometimes world events etc…

Ive slowed down posting and reading some comments just because of these stupid trolls that frequent this blog in the hopes of getting other people hooked on their mindless dribble.

Never debate a troll. they will beat you down and bring you to their level.

The word of the day is opportunity.

The economy will get worse before it gets better, no doubt BUT we follow opportunity on this blog.

Some days the comments section on here is starting to look more like GLP (google it if you dont know– grand daddy of all consipracy sites on the net).

Lets get back to what matters, lets talk about all things economic, lets talk numbers and facts.

keep fighting the good fight man.

#52 Professor on 08.02.11 at 11:21 pm

Garth
Can I still call you Hon. Dick?

Only when you genuflect. — Garth

#53 vyw on 08.02.11 at 11:22 pm

Well I was expecting a stock market rally and then a decline this fall followed by QE3. But now I wonder if the debt ceiling debate was a black swan moment that triggers a crisis of confidence in the economy taking everything down a few notches.

It kinda makes sense when you consider the US/UK/CDN govts keeping interest rates low – even negative real rates. They’re combating deflation while gas prices and gold values (and food, CPI) climb to obscure the real situation -> Sept 2008 redux. I hope I’m wrong.

#54 Samsara on 08.02.11 at 11:22 pm

Hi Garth,

I am also a lurker on your blog. Thank you for maintaining it, my wife and I have learned a great deal.

Ps. thank you for your book! Looking forward to reading more!

#55 Joe Robertson on 08.02.11 at 11:23 pm

Anyone can stand on a soapbox and shout their opinion Canada’s still a Great free country to do so.

You have an excellent blog here Garth where you highlight reasons for real estate owners to be cautious from future hikes in interest rates to warnings on personal debt levels and in todays world from joe who to central banks its all about being able to service your debt levels.

Respect comes from making investment calls that come true in a timely manner not from making the same call over and over and years later its still not unfolding.

You open the can of comments when you venture away from your real estate blog and make rude comments about sectors you clearly have no understanding of why its valued so, calling other investments over heated some 65% ago to suggesting those standing in line at Scotia bank will be back in line selling at a loss, that was 32% ago.

Showing respect to those that have correctly called the investment market these past 9 years is a start to gaining respect regarding your own real estate opinions.

The greatest trader on the planet made a call in 2003 at sub $400 that by 2011 $1650 would be in print, today that took place and his daily advice is free!

Most Tin foil hats are complete whack jobs but don’t lump us all together because many of us are just US$ bears and the future value of the US$ is going to be the #1 driver behind the future of your sector of expertise -real estate and how a $1.20 – $1.30 Canadian $ is going to effect our real estate market and general economy is what you should be telling your blog readers as we Tin hats know very well as to how it will effect our investment sector.

Canadians who are buying vacation homes in the US today must realize what they pay for it in 2011 could well be what its worth in 2020…we only have to look at Japan to see years and years of stagflation, no?

Enjoyed your blog shout tonight!

Good Luck!

#56 Iron Man on 08.02.11 at 11:25 pm

Hi Mr. Turner,
I read your blog all the time. Your books too are good! You do a wonderful job of educating people, and likely impact (in a positive way) Canadian Society and policy more than you may realize. Plus your blog is really humorous! The imbeciles who are ruining the fun are a nasty, vocal ignorant minority who are in no way representative of the vast numbers of smart, tolerant and considerate people all around us. Have you ever read the comments on the Globe and Mail? I don’t read them! I’ve lost total respect for the G&M for allowing the comments they allow. Anyone reading those comments would conclude that the majority of people are back-water, ignorant, red neck, morons. Clearly this is not the case! Well done to you Garth for moderating!! Keep up the great work Garth! Thank you for your writing.

#57 45north on 08.02.11 at 11:25 pm

Q: At any cost? How far would you go with that? How far would you extend that?

A: Well just watch me.

http://faculty.marianopolis.edu/c.belanger/quebechistory/docs/october/watchme.htm

#58 Gord In Vancouver on 08.02.11 at 11:26 pm

Hard to know if these people are impassioned zealots blindly consumed with their own ideology, or just pricks.
___________________

Pricks

#59 Corban on 08.02.11 at 11:28 pm

Just about done Money Road. Can anyone recommend a “Money Road Level 2”?

#60 Andrew on 08.02.11 at 11:29 pm

Garth, put up some damned ads. Most people have no problems with ads as long as they’re reasonably well targeted and non-intrusive. Give yourself a bit of a reward for all your hard work. Volunteerism is really not a sustainable trait. You choose to earn a tiny amount of money through a dying medium. Why not earn more money through a superior medium? You don’t give your books away for free, so why do you give your blogs away ad-free?

#61 hobbygirl on 08.02.11 at 11:32 pm

So what’s next???

Your thoughts are now going mainstream. This month’s Canadian Business cover story is about the benefits of renting vs owning, but I guess you already knew that.

#62 Robert Dudek on 08.02.11 at 11:33 pm

With March fading into memory, it’s almost time to buy uranium stocks again!

#63 hobbygirl on 08.02.11 at 11:39 pm

If any index investors are “advertising” absolute returns in the range of 6% to 8%, or expecting any returns “like clockwork,” I would be the first to call them out…Investing isn’t physics. You can say with certainty that the sun will always rise in east, and that a stock broker tossed from a window will always accelerate at 9.8 metres per second squared. – Canadian Couch Potato

With markets continuing to drop in value I am quite content with making 0% on my ‘safe’ money until interest rates rise.

Then, of course, you’re losing money. Inflation is 3.4%. The potato’s a dud spud. — Garth

#64 randman on 08.02.11 at 11:43 pm

#56 Joe R

“The greatest trader on the planet made a call in 2003 at sub $400 that by 2011 $1650 would be in print, today that took place and his daily advice is free!

Most Tin foil hats are complete whack jobs but don’t lump us all together because many of us are just US$ bears and the future value of the US$ is going to be the #1 driver behind the future of your sector of expertise -real estate and how a $1.20 – $1.30 Canadian $ is going to effect our real estate market and general economy is what you should be telling your blog readers as we Tin hats know very well as to how it will effect our investment sector. ”

Well said Joe…

And let me just add a few points

I’m an investor in PM’s..

I don’t think I’ve been rude

I have been doing nothing more than trying to
present a different viewpoint on the economic front

There is no agenda..if you think that our pounding the
table about PM’s is a sneaky promo to get you all to
buy metal so the price of mine rises…..well don’t make me laugh

I could care less if any of you bought and if all of you converted to metal it would be a speck on a flea’s butt
in market moves

We are only warning you ..it’s better to prepare for the
worst and hope for the best…..

So please, keep selling your PM’s and buying real estate …….I’ll do the opposite and sleep well at night!

I don’t have a blog….so what do I know!

#65 Bill Gable on 08.02.11 at 11:44 pm

Your patience and humor have overcome the fringers – the core is strong, and mostly we ignore the rabble. I come here because a ton of smart people add their thoughts to Mr. Turners’s hilarious and very smart blog.
I don’t come here to see people act rudely to other posters.
Thanks for the blog, Mr. Turner and thanks to you dogs.

I learn a lot around here.

#66 pulse on 08.02.11 at 11:44 pm

after #32, I read this;

Quacks and quackery through the ages. A ‘divertimento’.

“What is perhaps most noteworthy in this fateful French experiment is that not one of those responsible for the disaster ever acknowledged having been mistaken. What took place in France, under the régime of fiat money, is precisely what is happening in our world today. The same phenomena observed in France in the 18th century can be seen all over the world, today.”

http://www.plata.com.mx/Mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=170

We cannot have honest commerce without honest weights and measures.

pulse

#67 Paully on 08.02.11 at 11:44 pm

Thanks for posting that interview transcript link, 45North. It was a very interesting read. I may be too young to remember the event, but I was impressed with the way Trudeau handled that interview.

#68 Brett on 08.02.11 at 11:48 pm

Garth, please don’t go away. Maybe I’m mis-reading your tone, but I hope the lunatics don’t make you go away. I’ve read every post now for the last year and a half, love it all, completely agree.

I actually had a belief long before I found your blog that housing was going to crash, but was shunned and made to feel stupid. My views were forced into the closet, or at least I started to guard who I told what I thought. This was my new reality until I found your blog.

I did buy into the dream of owning in 2008, but I like to think I bought responsibly (only 2 times our family income, or about 230G for a semi). My thought process was simple, we would only buy if we were both in love with the place. This may seem trivial to some, but some advice we got was to buy whatever, you would just be moving up in a few years anyway. I bought with a thought that if values fell, we would be able to still afford it and also not feel we had to move because we had bought some piece of [email protected]

Needless to say, since I’ve found your blog, I’m now even more convinced I was right all along, and now feel free to share my belief’s with those I do care about. I’m amazed how many people still tell me I’m crazy, and how many believe the gov’t will not raise interest rates since it would devastate the housing market.

#69 thecomingdepression on 08.02.11 at 11:51 pm

DELETED

#70 Unforgettable on 08.02.11 at 11:52 pm

Something about real estate bubbles…

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/us-vs-canada-vs-australia-vs-uk-realty-bubble/

#71 Victoria on 08.02.11 at 11:55 pm

Thank you for all that you do. I read this blog every day and i have started many people on it. Thank you.

I want to ask – what is going on in Whistler? I am here now and it seems there are a lot of homes for sale. Wondering if this is true or just my perception?

Cheers!

#72 Helicopter Ben on 08.02.11 at 11:56 pm

#60 Corban a few books i have read recently that i enjoy ( they are economic books on the debt problem how we got here and where its going ) “THE GREAT SUPER CYCLE” BY DAVID SKARICA. “THE GREAT REFLATION BY J ANTHONY BOECKH. “CONQUER THE CRASH” BY ROBERT PRECHTER. “PROFITING FROM THE WORLDS ECONOMIC CRISIS” BY BUD CONRAD. “THE DOLLAR MELT DOWN” BY CHARLES GOYETTE AND INVESTING IN GOLD AND SILVER BY MIKE MALONEY ( mostly a monetary history book) . If i was to pick 3 i would say the great reflation, investing in gold and silver and the great super cycle. but they are all good reads.

#73 Dan in Victoria on 08.02.11 at 11:57 pm

Intelligence has its limits.
But stupidity knows no bounds.

#74 NormallySilentJeff on 08.02.11 at 11:57 pm

Hi Garth. I feel for you having to deal with sometimes troublesome commentors :) I help build a video game that we give away for free. We have forums that require constant moderation and we have had several incidents that required the FBI to be involved.

Thanks for all your hard work and excellent advice. My wife and I recently retired and are waiting to buy our FIRST house….ok, we’re late bloomers, but we know enough not to purchase at the top of a bubble and your blog has supported that decision.
Jeff

#75 Chaddywack on 08.02.11 at 11:57 pm

Great post Garth, clearly fitting a man who will be considered “Honourable” for life ;)

#76 Left coast dbags on 08.02.11 at 11:59 pm

Garth, ban the absurd posters who keep yelling “first!” These are the same turkeys who write entire posts with caps lock on. Let’s turn down the volume and turn up the intelligent discourse.

#77 Dave#1 on 08.03.11 at 12:01 am

Long overdue on moderating the wackos
The other day you said, don’t bet against america??
Isn’t that like saying, real estate always goes up??

I think the US may be a good buy in about 2 years. Real estate…5-7 years

Dave#1

#78 Pat on 08.03.11 at 12:06 am

#33 waterloo Resident wrote:
“…He accepts donations and regularly gets about $100 to $500 per day in donations.”

Not true! Patrick rarely gets above $100/day. It’s usually ~ 50.

And don’t worry, Garth knows how to make money.

#79 Rico Suave on 08.03.11 at 12:08 am

Re #16:

Garth, by linking to his crappy web site you are only increasing its Google page rank.

#80 Last Man on 08.03.11 at 12:09 am

I LOVE GOLD… kidding. Thanks for all the hard work Garth.

#81 Into the Sunset on 08.03.11 at 12:10 am

Reality: A statement was made on U.S. television –
The U.S. has total debts including unfunded liabilities of over 60 Trillion Dollars as of August 2, 2011.

Every blogger examine what one trillion dollars really represents.

Do it using any figures that will give you an appreciation of this amount, e.g. relative to how many hours have passed since the earth was formed….according to many theories, 4.5 billion years ago or use an average life expectancy of a man or woman using 85 years and see how many seconds that is and compare it to one trillion.

Use any measurement that will help you appreciate this figure that is so bandied about so easily today.

I believe most will be awed!.

#82 Burnt Norton on 08.03.11 at 12:10 am

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The rude doomers most likely find comfort in anonymously projecting their own depression, anxiety and self-contempt onto the blank canvas of the comment section here. I say good riddance.

#83 Utopia on 08.03.11 at 12:11 am

Thanks for speaking your mind so honestly Garth.

I for one, do appreciate the tremendous effort you put into this site each and every day. Few others would have the energy or patience to post in the face of such harsh vitriol and caustic commentary emanating from a small, select, vocal extremist community.

Gold-huggers, Dollar doomer’s, USA haters and even racists now run rampant across your pages almost every single day. It is beyond depressing. They have gone viral in their negativity and even I get infected some days.

Happily, I now feel confident some of them will eventually be permanently banned. They have overtaken this site as they have many others on the web and feel no remorse in spewing the same repetitive (garbage) that now infests much of the blogosophere.

So bring down the hammer.

Polluted and repetitive one-sided ideologies have ruined this great site for many of the regulars and driven them away from the terrific conversations we once enjoyed here.

I miss most of them to be honest. They worked hard.

We are all entitled to our own opinions of course. But the abuse that has recently emerged here and discouraged many of the regular bloggers from posting is an insult to the site (and to the host).

So bring on the whip. And let’s get back to business.

#84 wetcoaster on 08.03.11 at 12:13 am

Victoria median prices down 5% this month. If that isn’t a massive sign the shit is hitting the fan. Even the VREB and the local news rag call the price declines “somewhat down”. Since when is 5% “somewhat” ? I sense a whole lotta RE agent hand wringing going on in the garden city.

#85 Tim on 08.03.11 at 12:14 am

While it’s a pity some people can’t engage in civil discussions, there are some signs that the economic situation in the coming years could be significantly worse than many folks believe possible, precious metals can be part of a decent portfolio mix, a well stocked pantry is a comfort, and it’s legal to possess and use guns in Canada.

Of course, as the sub-title of your blog indicates (The Troubled Future of Real Estate) you have the right to expect that folks here will stay on-topic.

#86 Hashnugs Inthebong on 08.03.11 at 12:25 am

I come here to see the daily pictures. I read the blog with interest, but really like the fat chick pics.

#87 waterloo Resident on 08.03.11 at 12:25 am

Garth; want to see something that is a “EUREKA” moment? Take a look at these two charts. Now please tell me what does your intuition tell you that the price of gold will be in two years time?

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3EkDrzL-MpI/TjXsDOQ5kAI/AAAAAAAARaY/7fozpb6Okmc/s1600/debtgold.png

And with that chart in mind, what do you think the price of this Gold Bullion Bull ETF will be in two year’s time?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HBU.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72656406502

My calculation is a return of about 46% per year on HBU.TO and a doubling of your money every two years.

Yes, I too think that’s crazy, but just look at how the gold and the debt charts follow each other so close ! I wonder if its just coincidence ?

#88 Island Girl on 08.03.11 at 12:28 am

Your blog is my entertainment and enlightenment at the end of the day. After having recently spent a weekend with the inlaws, I was only amused at their utter confidence and certainty that the vancouver market is different and that’s it’s truely different there. So much talk of how beautiful it is and how everyone wants to live there and all the foreign money supporting house prices. It’s funny considering that one of them is a financial advisor that has done well for himself so far and has been so reasonable in their house purchasing up to this point.

#89 randman on 08.03.11 at 12:28 am

Just remember this jewel of wisdom when it comes to making investment decisions…

“Financial assets, whether they go up or down, are a losing investment when priced in a currency that is rapidly losing its purchasing power.”

#90 Trevor on 08.03.11 at 12:30 am

It’s about time, maybe I’ll start reading the comments again.

Since you run greaterfool on wordpress, there are all sorts of technology solutions you could try that might disrupt the What’s the Frequency, Kenneth! crowd – there’s a moderation plugin (as suggested), switching to Facebook comments, or a crowd-moderated YouTube-like approach, where unpleasant comments that get voted down simply aren’t seen. Trolls hate that sort of thing.

#91 "Council of 13" on 08.03.11 at 12:38 am

Forget the debt ceiling:

What about the new “Super Congress” legislation?

Another nail in the coffin of U.S. democracy?

Food for thought :)

#92 EdmontonJim on 08.03.11 at 12:44 am

Bravo, keep up the good work. As rude as the feral trolls are here, I’ll bet they’ve got nothing on parliment eh?

Yeah, I wouldn’t blame you if you filtered this one.

#93 Sasquatch on 08.03.11 at 12:46 am

Sounds like a troll infestation to me.

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/subcultures/trolling

normally use of the ban hammer and starving the bastards out works, but the topics of this blog offer so much troll food and a readership seemingly oblivious to even the most basic of troll tactics.

To you I say: Good luck, god speed, and do not stop.

#94 randman on 08.03.11 at 12:49 am

Trader Dan on the debt agreement…

“only in modern day America could a bunch of hapless politicians congratulate themselves for sinking their nation and their countrymen deeper into a morass of indebtedness. Words cannot express my contempt and disdain for this bunch of pitiful “statesmen”. They make Nero look like a genuine patriot by comparison. He at least did something constructive while his city burned. He played his fiddle. Our jokers played us instead.”

#95 Aussie Roy on 08.03.11 at 12:50 am

Keep up the good work Garth always enjoy the daily read. Pity about the doomers but don’t let them get you down.

Personally it’s great to be able to watch the Canadian experience to this global private debt bubble. It’s certainly getting interesting here, down under.

Aussie Update

By now it should be obvious to anybody who is not a banker or a real estate agent that Australia is in the grip of a substantial housing bubble.

The greatest housing-price rise in the history of Australian residential property represents an inflated bubble – one that is ready to burst.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, only a handful of economists accept this view.

http://theconversation.edu.au/should-we-be-bracing-for-an-inevitable-housing-bubble-bust-2588

#96 Anon on 08.03.11 at 12:54 am

Garth, while I agree with you regarding unprofessional behavior you can often see everywhere on internet, don’t ignore the fact that there are people who simply disagree with part of what you are saying. In particular I do believe (on rational basis rather than emotional) that we all are screwed mid term and long term and maybe even short(ish) term, humanity is heading towards a major correction which will include a massive die off at least in some parts of the world (whether it comes during my lifetime or in a few years thereafter), and that our political systems are not doing us any favors but instead are going to make the problems much worse. The pathetic political show in US over the weekend is the latest reminder of that. Except for Ron Paul there are no honest politicians out there, and I am not saying I agree with everything he has to say. You need to revise your view on currencies and what this means for assets you can touch, especially those that can last for more than one year. If you really do own a bunker I am not sure why I am telling you this- you know all of that already. If you changed your mind since you invested into that bunker why don’t you sell the sucker and invest proceeds into those magical financial instruments that you like to talk about? And while you are at it, please remember that despite the yet another record gold price today my offer to help you short your gold still stands.

#97 LB on 08.03.11 at 12:55 am

Garth,I think you need to differentiate between a poster’s opinion/message and personal/ hateful attacks, with only the latter being unacceptable and deleted.

We,the readers, are all quite capable of discerning which comments WE, as individuals, deem irrelevant or nonsensical.

Censorship, by any means, is the greater threat to the purpose of open forums such as this.

#98 The Phantom on 08.03.11 at 12:57 am

Evening All:

It was with some degree of encouragement tonight that I, too, observed a lack of people who developed creamy underwear by self-proclaiming “First”! It was perhaps a bit funny in the beginning but the whole exercise runs a little long in the tooth after a while. I enjoy reading your opinions as well as those posted here by some of the more erudite participants and, as always, it is equally good to see that Smoking Man continues to contribute as well. Missed you there for a time Smoking Man; glad you’re back and I, also look forward to your posts…
Good night all

the Phantom

#99 jamie on 08.03.11 at 1:00 am

@ultracrystal (“Some of these people are almost giddy with excitement at the prospect of such a collapse. To these people, I warn that you may feel righteous in some weird way to have held out for the past five years from buying a house”)

i really thought about your comment, as i’m one of those people who are eagerly awaiting a “collapse” of sorts in real estate. is this wrong? i don’t really think so. is it wrong to want to pay a reasonable price for real estate? is it wrong to not want to pay $750k for a nice house in S’toon that was $450k in 2005? is it wrong to want to see the benefits of saving large sums of money over the years? is it wrong to want those people who are making stupid amounts of money by speculating to take a dive? is it wrong to want to see people who overextend themselves to finally realize why it is so dangerous to do so? is it wrong to not want to have to take out a 35 year mortgage? i’m a high income earner (~$200k/year), and i rent. i refuse to buy a house simply because “everyone else is doing it”. i really just don’t want to handcuff myself financially and risk my freedom to do so. i’m debt-free with net worth of $650k, and no house. i hate debt….why, because it restricts freedom. i like freedom, and have no problem in delaying gratification until i can actually afford what i want.

i admit that sometimes i catch myself almost hoping for others to crash…it’s aweful, and that’s not really my motive. but, unfortunately, when it has become the norm for people to act irresponsibly, then it really is too bad when bad things happen to people. i realize that a lot of people who get in deep are not doing it to be greedy, and that’s unfortunate. but, isn’t there a sort of theory that only the strong/smart survive? maybe some people are going to have to learn the hard way – just like in the U.S. – that money don’t not really come easy, and there’s no such thing as a free lunch.

canadians have a very arrogant attitude about real estate entitlement after seeing what the U.S. has just went thru. that bugs me. i hear it so many times that “it just can’t happen here”, and people continually keep financing. well, for those of us who don’t finance, and have been left in the dust (ie. watched as house prices have gone thru the roof), i say “too bad”. i won’t gloat or say “i told you so” once it does happen, but i will be sitting there with a heap of cash taking advantage of the misfortune of irresponsible people. sorry, maybe you just should have been smarter.

#100 Vancouver on 08.03.11 at 1:01 am

Love your site. Please don’t let a small number ruin it for everyone. Moderators are the way to go.

#101 Stefan on 08.03.11 at 1:03 am

Recommend reading Robert Kiyosaki’s “conspiracy of the rich”

#102 Axehead on 08.03.11 at 1:03 am

I post here, usually with stats about small Alberta towns and real estate valuation. I lurk here too, trying to get a feel for the Canadian real estate pulse. This was one of the best reads in a long time…no ‘First’ idiots, a few Wonderful ‘DELETEDs’, and holy crap…metal heads writing respectful blog entries. This site is about real estate and real wealth…when it sticks to that – it’s a real gem.

#103 from kits on 08.03.11 at 1:03 am

I thought you were going to shut down the blog….I was starting to feel like their had been a loss in my life! phew…

on another note, why wouldn’t you start making money. no offence but seems like a no brainer to start profiting off the goldies with links stating “the next big gold stock”… if we all have to read these idiotic posts let’s at least get you some cash in the process.

then you can buy all the porn you want! :-)

#104 Don on 08.03.11 at 1:06 am

I value the knowledge and experiences of others who back their arguments up with fact. The freaks and ignorant make me laugh some times, but will not be missed.

From a long time reader. Thanks Garth! Sharing experiences drives closer to the real story.

#105 Jimmy on 08.03.11 at 1:08 am

Garth, feeling extra pissy tonight, I bet something big happens tomorrow. Keep us posted!

#106 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.03.11 at 1:08 am


“From zero visits then, there are now six million a year.” — Six million divided by 365 days per year equals a large daily volume of visitors, and chances are that a lot of them don’t even live in this country.

So you’re a SuperStudStar, born to your calling like Astaire and Rogers, Jagger and Richards, Laurel and Hardy along with numerous others.

Don’t ferget us minions, and pass on the occasional spanking to keep us in tow!
*
#66 Bill Gable — “I learn a lot around here.” — Ditto. I’ve learned tons over the past few years. This is almost like going to a free, enjoyable university but without the suits!
*
Europe “Don’t forget that Goldman Sachs sold Credit Default Swaps to those European banks, so when they go, WE go.” wrh.com, and Greece Spot the connection between these two links; Recess – Depression never ended, but call it what you will; Pic Of The Year Mt. Debtmore, USA; Profits Rise as economy tanks; New VAT “The Super-Congress is already planning to impose a carbon tax on you, and now Pelosi admits to a VAT, in effect a national sales tax . . .” wrh.com; Tent City of New Jersey, Vermont and Over one-third of Alabamans on food stamps; Obama This is why he has raised more this time than the previous election.

Found Indian Treasure now stands at US$20 bln.; Oz markets dive;

Fukushima fallout equivalent to twenty Hiroshima atomic bombs; More reasons to avoid Facebook, Twitter, Google, etc.; Social Engineering or How To Control The Masses; CC where it is least expected; 0:41 clip Twister in Russia, and Etna erupts again; The UK may be bombing Libya illegally, but this Libyan escapade could cripple Britain fiscally.

The X-Files They swim among us and 3:02 clip; 9:48 clip USSA — Council of Thirteen to rule (six Dems, six Repubs, one Prez.) — Congress is irrelevant now, and this; CTV BS Man, are they full of it.

#107 JohnnyBravo on 08.03.11 at 1:11 am

The mood “out there” is dour…

A steady stream of negative economic news Stateside (let’s face it, the US is a shambles right now, with emphasis on ‘sham’). American politicians — who are an utter embarrassment to the West — threaten to bring the world to the economic brink. Europe in perpetual crisis. Iceland, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy… Where does it end? Even Canada, O Canada: negative GDP in May.

While the future is as hard to predict as, well, the future, those who follow the economy and the markets know that this time really is different. Not unique. Not unprecedented. But certainly not normal:

Inflation? Deflation? Yes. At the same bloody time. US corporations sitting on, what, over a trillion in cash?… And over 45 million Americans on “food stamps.” Canadian economy stagnant… And houses at all-time highs. S&P still says AAA. Weiss Research says C-Minus. Same country. 13 trillion for bankers. Austerity and surely higher taxes for “we the people.” Stocks cheap. No, stocks expensive. “They” don’t like gold. But “They” are buying big time. The US is the world’s largest purveyor of fiat currency. And the largest holder of gold bullion.

When the world resembles something out of a Lewis Carroll fantasy, people are bound to get a bit unsettled as they scope for solid ground. And opinions become beliefs. Not because they want to. Because they need to. Beliefs are defended. Vigorously. Rudely. Violently.

No wonder some have been getting out of hand lately. Greed and fear, but mostly fear, I think. But that’s still no excuse. So let’s try to be: respectful; on topic; factual; helpful; resourceful. And thankful to our dedicated host, his generous wife, and faithful dog.

#108 Davey Boy on 08.03.11 at 1:23 am

Dear Garth, renting in Vancouver, could buy and be mortgage free (and be a greater fool) but chose not to chiefly based on your logic and in my opinion sound reasoning that you present. So similar to others sentiments here tonight appreciate your nightly column. Adversity brings out the best in us all so soldier on!

#109 cj on 08.03.11 at 1:26 am

We’re behind you and appreciate your daily info and great humor. This blog has made a difference to so many potential property virgins and boomers who need to think about financing their retirement. I get a lot out of the comments and it is only a handful of bloggers who are rude. It is one thing to have a different opinion, it’s another to trash other bloggers or bring global doom and gloom. We have your back!

#110 InPenticton on 08.03.11 at 1:32 am

Garth, I read two of your most recent books after checking them out of our local library, which led me to this blog. I am but a lowly 30 yr old woman with a well paying mgmt job in local government who has been fortunate enough to make some money in real estate in past years. Bought a two bdrm apartment in Penticton in 2005 for $100k and sold it exactly one year later for $150k. Not rich but doing ok.

We just rented our ideal house this month (it was just bought for $680k) and it is costing us significantly less each month then the mortgage we would have had to take to buy it. I have been thinking for the last year that renting was the smarter way to go, since being young we have the cashflow to qualify for that $700k mortgage (according to the bank) but not the savings that I would want. I swore I would never pay CMHC fees again.

Everyone around us is apalled that we are renting, except for a quiet few professionals. Our townhouse just went up for sale and I am fairly sure we will just break even, or loose a bit … and we bought in 06.

All this long story to say I enjoy your rants and musings. It helpse think my own ideas on finances through and as a young person doing well in my career, these things are important to me. Now to just find a financial planner that doesn’t treat all younger people like it is impossible for them to know anything about money or investing….

Long time reader, first time commentor :)
K

#111 immigrantvoice on 08.03.11 at 1:32 am

I think this blog is fringe, if by fringe we’re talking “contrarian”. If that is the case in the coming years the topic will gradually switch from housing bubble to money bubble. Ron Paul was fringe, ridiculed, and now he’s starting to make sense to (at least) the majority of American people who actually think about their future. I really wanted to stop reading this blog, because I felt Garth was getting jumpy on “metal heads” and nervous about the kinds of topics that came up in the comments… I think a lot of the “puritan right wing” lingo is probably some Re-Max agent causing a stir to discredit the blog itself… Food for thought… But alas, it’s ONE OF A KIND. Fringe, contrarian, thoughtful. Nothing rude about that…

#112 Harlee on 08.03.11 at 1:47 am

I totally agree that Garth should do more moderating on this site. It would make it far more easier to read if insulting or snarky comments were deleted. Having to read such comments is like having to listen to a flat tire flapping against dry pavement – damned annoying.
I liked Liz Seger’s comments @ #7. People on this world haven’t changed much in 50 years but the attitudes sure have seemed to.

#113 Utopia on 08.03.11 at 2:00 am

To Kitchener1 from yesterday….

Yes, something bad is going to happen alright. Gold is set for a nasty decline. So get ready.
==============================

#147 Oasis on 08.02.11 at 7:34 pm

“Right OR wrong? You’re not sure?
————————–
Oasis. I notice you only come on this blog when Gold and Silver are rising. You only show your face and spout one-dimensional crap when the US dollar is in decline and your particular investment class is rising.

All the rest of the time you are silent and say nothing.

That makes you a Troll.

If I moderated this blog, your commentary would be amongst the first to be deleted and censored. You have nothing of value to add to any of the conversations and you have proven yourself to be biased, insulting to the group and unreasonable in your perspectives.

So get lost or get involved.

#114 The InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 08.03.11 at 2:01 am

Someone made the great point a while back that an awful lot of people (maybe most people) are not looking for advice, they have already made their minds up and they seek confirmation that they are right. (In my case I already KNOW I am right so I just seek to spread my gospel and try to educate the masses a little)

If you think Gold will keep rising or real estate will keep rising that is fine. By why come here and be angry that Garth does not take that view. Why not go off to a Gold discussion board? I mean it’s fine to disagree but why be angry that Garth disagrees with you?

And how about a few more of you post under your own names and locations? Surely you are not afraid to be identified with your views? I can’t take anonymous people seriously at all.

I am thankful to Garth for this intoxicating little brew of discussion and debate each day.

I guess we can’t be disrespectful to each other anymore… But surely a bit of consensual spanking is still okay?

#115 TPFKAA on 08.03.11 at 2:05 am

Garth, just thought you should know: I’ve been reading your site for around 9 months now, and every time I have been too lazy to type the full address into the address bar on my browser, so I always just google “garth turner” and greaterfool is usually the first or second entry. Not any more. Yesterday that all changed. Try it: greater fool doesn’t even come up on the first page. What happened? (Get your tinfoil hats on everyone).

Apparently a consequence of teh new server. I am told this will restore. — Garth

#116 Two-thirds on 08.03.11 at 2:08 am

Great! It would be great if we blog-dawgs get back to the early days of this counter-insurgent blog – contributing opinions, local anecdotes, linking RE-related news and articles, and having a meaningful discussion.

Many of the pre-2010 bloggers have been driven away by the rude newcomers.

I hope Garth’s new policy brings back some of the old-times regulars and gives new visitors confidence to post comments.

A welcome change Garth, too bad your work load will increase.

#117 martin on 08.03.11 at 2:12 am

–‘getting creamy hot flashes over Bosch appliances’–

how do you come up with such ideas? i tell you i enjoy your writing mr. turner and i will be more then happy to provide a financal support to you as a sign of apreciation.

How does 20 Bucks a month sound?
its enough to drink 3 Canadian beers at your local bar (excluding the tip) and when you pay you tell the bartender :
this beers are from my admirator!!!

#118 munch on 08.03.11 at 2:17 am

Very nice, Garth

Keep up the fantastic work

A lot of us may not be visible, or post a lot, but we’re still here … still reading

Regards

obo “The Silent Majority”

#119 west coast easy on 08.03.11 at 2:56 am

DELETED

#120 dosouth on 08.03.11 at 3:04 am

Glad to see the reduction in blathering posts and insults. Just as your time is valuable so are you readers, thank you.

#121 timo on 08.03.11 at 3:13 am

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110824/Gallup-Daily-US-Economic-Outlook.aspx

Your right Garth ,we should concentrate on events at home. here is a feel good piece.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/July+housing+sales+point+gradual+improvement/5194965/story.html?cid=megadrop_story

#122 Onemorething on 08.03.11 at 3:16 am

Garth, does this mean I can start reading your blog daily like I used to years ago?

A decade of an orchestrated downturn is now upon us, RE will get slowly slaughtered through a number of economic factors but most importantly the emotional one as Garth has clearly described.

What I like most are the properties I have my eye on are ones who will be hit the most and are at least 7 years out before getting 10% from their bottoms.

Sidelines, Liquid, no stress and ready pounce on a moments notice. Dont worry Garth only 30-40% on RE or less!

Thanks for doin’ us a Solid G-man!

#123 Veej on 08.03.11 at 3:26 am

Debt deal done and gold surges. Gold will decline when the fed stops printing money to paper over their problems, simple as that. Seasonally, we should be at a low. Only twice in the last 10 years have gold stocks been this cheap relative to the price of gold. Each time they rallied over 140%. See you in December. The only chart you need to know:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3EkDrzL-MpI/TjXsDOQ5kAI/AAAAAAAARaY/7fozpb6Okmc/s1600/debtgold.png

#124 DBL on 08.03.11 at 3:29 am

Garth:
I read your blog daly. My wife reads the Bible. I support your efforts 100% to write what you want and to allow who you want to post. Keep up the good work!

#125 Taipan on 08.03.11 at 3:32 am

Ive enjoyed your thoughts over the last few years. I post rarely. Occassionally read the comments. Ignore those with agenda’s.

But ive also found a lot of useful information on this forum especially from you.

Often it is important information which should be right out there in front of us in the media, but for a variety of reasons others help to obscure it.

Without doubt it isnt in their interests. So with a simple blog, you are able to tell a story that others spend millions trying to hide.

A case of the pen being mightier then the chequebook?

So that makes reading your blog particularly interesting.

Keep writing, as it is often the silent ones who you get to sit and think.

Yeah the big fella’s got a point.

Now, its after 5.00pm in Aussie which means it scotch o’clock.

Cheers mate and a big thanks. !

#126 confused and a little crazed on 08.03.11 at 3:55 am

hi garth,

i really appreciate your insight and efforts…though i listen to u i have not followed your advice exactly.

I do buy individual stocks but they give me good compounding dividends ranging from 2- 5 %
90 k in investments
80 k in RRSP ..mutual funds a little stock
70 K in GIC/ cash
12 k in TFSA – stocks @ 4.5 % dividends :)
i also have a company pension

will read more on etf and Reits
no real estate

i ‘m not doing to bad but i turning 40 this year

#127 Gimli Son of Gloin on 08.03.11 at 3:55 am

Garth I appreciate your words of advise. I truly feel like this blog saved my ass from making a terrible financial decision. In the summer/fall of 2010 my wife and I were house horny (live in Van) having just had a baby. After looking at dozens of pieces of overpriced shit I really had a feeling in my gut that the prices were insane. I simply could not come to terms with fact that everyone was getting “rich” on rising house prices while nothing of any value was produced, sold or earned. Life just don’t work that way. You dont get something for nothing in perpetuity. It has to end sometime.

Then I began to google “housing bubble”. I eventually came upon your site and had a “revelation”. I was able to use your facts and figures to convince my wife that this was not the right move at this time and we should continue to rent our 3 bedroom burnaby triplex for 1K per month and invest the difference of what we would have spent on a mortgage, prop taxes, carrying costs into paying off her student loans (she a teacher in Van), me a salesperson (100K year) and investments. We are now debt free and enjoy watching our liquid savings grow significantly every month (in addition to my RRSP contributions 6% of pay plus company matching)

Thanks Garth you helped me to choose a responsible path for me and my family! We will live better for it!

#128 confused and a little crazed on 08.03.11 at 3:58 am

forgot to say

thanks…u are that lone light that gives us little moths a little hope …in this crazy greedy world

#129 R on 08.03.11 at 4:00 am

Bad debt needs to be restructured or written off. That is the answer that’s been avoided all this time.
The second part is reversing poor policy decisions.

One involves getting the smack junkies off the free stimulus smack.. The other involves having politcians make sound economic decisions.

Both seem inherently impossible. We need productive business ventures rather than more people gaming tje system for short term gain.

#130 Brandon on 08.03.11 at 4:24 am

Fair enough Garth. I come here for real estate market insight. I prefer other sites for broader economic issues. Thanks for all you do. This is your blog and you have the right to keep it that way.

#131 debtified on 08.03.11 at 4:40 am

One of the two reasons that make your blog as popular as it is, in my opinion, is the comments section. Unfortunately, it has been infested by people who have no understanding of respect and proper decorum. I applaud your decision of censoring these people’s comments.

The other reason, of course, is your writing and the learning I get from it. Thank you.

For my contribution, here are the latest economic indicators from StatsCan:

http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/indi02a-eng.htm

#132 Ky on 08.03.11 at 5:08 am

Both the Real Estate pumpers and Gold Nuts are cut from the same cloth. Both share one thing in common – a fervently zealous, religious belief in the unending upward trajectory of their worshipped asset. In certain rare instances in investing, these singularly myopic outlooks can be very rewarding, but usually it ends badly for most.

#133 +1 on 08.03.11 at 5:28 am

“So, it’s over. This is not an Armageddon blog. Not a gold blog. Not an America-is-insolvent blog. Not a tin foil blog. Not a doomer guns-&-god blog. And not a place for antisocial metalheads to come and take a dump.”

Yay! Glad to hear the new change in direction.

I think I’m one of your good posters (been here since 2009 posting) but lately there was too much “rudeness” going on to post, and although I won’t point gold fingers, I’m glad for house clearing.

Thanks Garth, keep up the great job here, I read your blog daily.

#134 Thank-you Garth turner on 08.03.11 at 5:45 am

We blog dogs are lucky . Thank -you Garth

#135 Rob now in Nova Scotia on 08.03.11 at 6:03 am

Hi Garth,

I see that a great many people approve of your filtering but whenever I read someone’s comments that I didn’t like or agree with, I would just scroll down to the next comment so I’m not in total agreement with your decision.

Similar decisions are what ultimately leads to total censorship. First “the radicals” are legitimately “filtered”, then “new radicals” are identified and filtered and ultimately, the media is a carefully controlled one sending only an “approved” message. I sincerely hope that you have the discipline to avoid turning this blog into a controlled media outlet.

I am a silver bug and have not been rude (at least in my opinion) but like you warning people not to invest too much in a house, I like to warn people the investing in precious metals will increase and protect your wealth. If I’m in wrong, I will not whine and ask for a handout. Similarly, if I’m right, I don’t want my gains taken by some bleeding hearted liberal to pay for those that will loose everything. It is my opinion, that’s all.

Are you going to filter this?

Cheers, Rob

#136 bullion.bunny on 08.03.11 at 6:45 am

DELETED

#137 bullion.bunny on 08.03.11 at 6:47 am

DELETED

#138 Neo on 08.03.11 at 6:49 am

Garth,

I only bring up Gold when YOU bring it up. So you stop trying to talk it down in your Real Estate Blog and I will stop pointing out the fallacy of your argument. You seem to be going that route now with this post, therefore so will I. Deal?

Aside from that, I agree with your overall thesis on housing and have commented on that as well and will continue to in the future.

#139 David B on 08.03.11 at 6:51 am

Some time ago Mr. Turner we met briefly and I mentioned a high end property and young money … it appears the property is still for sale but for less and the young people are still young …. strange never really have figured out when young professional people get old … but I digress the saga will continue. Real Estate really is addictive as even I believe this is one nice hunk of land.

#140 the original dave on 08.03.11 at 7:08 am

Hey G, you think your portfolio will still return 7-8 percent for 2011 considerong all the market conditions? Totally sincere questiom

#141 pbrasseur on 08.03.11 at 7:31 am

Garth – For a moment I thought you were stopping everything, god forbid you’d do that just as things are (at least in Canada) about to become intersesting.

Besides, I really like this blog (not so much for the comments but for Garth’s views and wit).

As for the crackpots, better get used to it, they’re all over… Don’t get in arguments with them, just delete.

#142 Matt on 08.03.11 at 7:32 am

Garth,

Thank you for all the diligent work you put into this blog. Quality reading material is hard to find on the internet these days!

Cheers!

#143 Aaron - Melbourne on 08.03.11 at 7:50 am

Garth, about time this blog had a theme song!

http://www.facebook.com/TheBeardsAustralia

(to the trolls) – You should consider having sex with a bearded man

I see the tenure of debate has already elevated. — Garth

#144 Moneta on 08.03.11 at 7:56 am

Censure has a price. It got us into this credit mess.

The disrespectful and the so called doomers are a kind of bellwether.

#145 maxx on 08.03.11 at 8:41 am

Garth, this site is informative, educational, entertaining (to be sure!) and a real breath of fresh air. I rarely miss a day at least reading your intro. You and the site both deserve more respect and preemptively taking out inappropriate commentary is a good thing. Phenomenal job and many thanks.

#146 Standard Deviation on 08.03.11 at 8:44 am

Well done Garth, you have succeeded in defeating a societal norm these days by removing these foot stampers. Generally speaking in the media today “The lowest common denominator always prevails” e.g. the antics and petulance of the tea party.
The value of rational and reasonable debate should always trump foot stamping petulance.

#147 Montrealer on 08.03.11 at 8:49 am

Thank you Garth, and I agree, about time.
The comments seciton will come back to one where you can read 100% of the comment,s and not only find the ones that Garth replied to.

I would still prefer a new book, as no one is there to comment :)

#148 yt on 08.03.11 at 9:01 am

#60 Corban

Check out Rob Carricks “Whats good, bad and downright awful in Canadian investments today”. It sits beside Garths book on my shelf as where Garth is the guru of tax avoidence, Rob is the guru of keeping your trading costs as low as possible. If you follow both of those paths that will make you more money than picking the right investment or timing the market.

Other good books are the ‘Dummy” series. I am currently sloggng through the “trading” one which is full of technical info on how to pick investments and I swear I will be able to pass the sellers exam if I actually retain it all. Another good one in this series is “76 tips for investing in an uncertain economy”.

A good general book on what is happenng in the world is Jeff Rubins ” why your world is about to get a whole lot smaller”. The best retirement booklet I have read is the “guide to retiring wealthy” by moneysense magazine which I read every month too.

All of these books are written by Canadians by the way.

The books mentioned by someone earlier are all the same theme, currancy and precious metals if that interests you. I own the one by Maloney which is a semi fictional account of the history of money with a sales pitch at the end to buy gold from him.

good reading!
yt

#149 Cow Man on 08.03.11 at 9:07 am

Thank you Garth. As one of your dedicated followers, I come to this blog for intellectual stimulation. It has come to the point where the majority of the comments are ignored after the first line. Some repeat bloggers are searched out as their comments are excellent. There is a saying that goes something like, “never underestimate the intelligents of an electorate”. It sort of fits here.

#150 CREA Circle Jerk on 08.03.11 at 9:17 am

#138 Neo on 08.03.11 at 6:49 am

“Garth,

I only bring up Gold when YOU bring it up. So you stop trying to talk it down in your Real Estate Blog and I will stop pointing out the fallacy of your argument. You seem to be going that route now with this post, therefore so will I. Deal?”

Exactly. Stick to real estate and the stock market Garth. I own no precious metals whatsoever, but even I can see that the fiscal calamity affecting western Europe and North America is not close to being resolved. Until sound money rules the day, you don’t want to short this gold bull – or stocks for that matter. I wonder too how much Real Estate will go down in nominal terms too considering the hyper expansion of money supply. Only the extreme deflationary forces in the system and countering the dilution of fiat currencies, keeping inflation “in check”. I expect these competing money supply/deflationary forces to balance out for quite awhile yet, and correspondingly, interest rates won’t rise significantly for some time to come.

One thing is clear: We’re in a financial purgatory which extremely tough to read because of Central Bank interference and artificial stimulus which are distorting markets to no end. But generally, we’re nowhere close to resuming REAL GDP expansion in Westernized countries. Any real GDP growth for the next 5+ years will probably be due almost exclusively to inflation.

#151 kimi on 08.03.11 at 9:19 am

I love your Blog, Garth… I hope you never stop.

Just one thing for those who are DELETED: A smart person gets to know the rules, so he can break them wisely. Looks like the DELETED ones… aren’t so smart.

#152 Daisy Mae on 08.03.11 at 9:22 am

Andrew on 08.02.11 at 11:29 pm “Garth, put up some damned ads. Most people have no problems with ads as long as they’re reasonably well targeted and non-intrusive. Give yourself a bit of a reward for all your hard work. Volunteerism is really not a sustainable trait.”

Ads are just plain annoying…and are, indeed, intrusive.

I do quite abit of volunteering, most of it at our hospital. I do it because I enjoy it. I do not expect to be paid. That’s what volunteering is about. It is very much appreciated and necessary.

#153 Daisy Mae on 08.03.11 at 9:25 am

…..and so are you, Garth! Appreciated and necessary. I’ve learned so much over time and never miss a blog. Thank you so very much.

#154 BrianT on 08.03.11 at 9:31 am

I fail to see the point of all these posts basically leaving a polished apple for the teacher-nobody needs this credit to pass. Financial blogs are supposed to be about discussion and how to make money, not simple political conformity. I guess this one is over the line.

#155 Tom from Mississauga on 08.03.11 at 9:46 am

Hi Garth, yup, your blog, do want you want with it. Some posters that are ridiculous and incessantly one sided in comments need moderating definitely.
Just make sure you keep giving me ideas that make me money at a reasonable risk.

#156 kilby on 08.03.11 at 9:57 am

I guess I won’t be able to find out where the best deals are on Gold Fiats with guns anymore….I have been enjoying Garth’s blog and have bought two books. Have sold a house and am renting until mid 2012. Without the pieces of information that I have gleaned from this site I would be planning on selling our Okanagan home next year instead of last. Thanks for all the advice, I like being a home owner and will be again, but thanks to what I have learned here my 90 minus age works out just right……Feels good.

#157 househornyhousewife on 08.03.11 at 9:57 am

Garth,

As you can see from all of these comments, we all understand your frustration. Unfortunately, this is the risk you run when you write something on a public forum. Just remember that those few weirdos do not make up the majority.

I still think that your task of trying to make people see that owning a home is not necessarily the right move for everyone is a gargantuan task. But from the letters and situations that you have published on this blog, it seems to me that you are having a positive influence on a certain number of people so don’t let those few idiots ruin your resolve.

You do have regular readers who are not crazy gloom and doomers out here.

HHHW

#158 Daisy Mae on 08.03.11 at 9:58 am

When is your latest book being released? I already have four.

I check Chapters every week ’cause I know it’ll be soon! LOL

You said ‘in the fall’……

Still writing. I got distracted. — Garth

#159 Mr. Lee on 08.03.11 at 10:16 am

Very well said Mr. Turner.

You infomation and advice is second to none. I have read your book, “Money Road” and appreciate the wisdom entailed in it.

For the most part I agree with your out look on housing and diversifcation of investments. As a small gold and silver bug I respect your views on PMs and agree that we may be heading for a PM bubble.

On leverage and debt, your mantra is now being echoed by the hallowed halls of Canadian finance.

So thanks for your thoughts, and wisdom. I too share your beliefs in a true debate of ideas and exchange of ideas. No one person knows everything, therefore if we do not at least listen to one another, how can “we” get better?

#160 nemesis on 08.03.11 at 10:20 am

“Just watch me.” – Hon. GT

Yikes, GT!… How many here remember what happened after Pierre said that?…

http://tinyurl.com/3rcs6oh

PS – Shopping for armour, GT? There are some great deals out there on lightly used main battle tanks…

http://tinyurl.com/y85uu3x

#161 Joe Bloggs on 08.03.11 at 10:33 am

DELETED

#162 Mr. Plow on 08.03.11 at 11:02 am

When I started reading this I thought, this is it he’s hanging it up or at least taking a break.

I have often wondered what brings you back to respond to some of the mind numbing comments (maybe some are mine, who knows?)

Either way, I would encourage anyone who values this blog to take this as a warning shot.

#163 Smoking Man on 08.03.11 at 11:08 am

Wow Wow and Wow
Can you say free falling, TSE getting killed, grass hoppers remember what I said about batmans ears few months ago….Works like a charm.

Now Grass hoppers copy my post, make a pic of it and save it as your desktop back ground. I read all your links and info and someone said this and someone said that and this . Means nothing compaid to what I am going to show you

Now Read and learn………………..

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

this was yesterday, The equity market follows the bond market.

Huge money is bailing on equities and buying bonds. sending yeilds to basment….. Meaning fix rate mortgages are about to drop like lead on jupiter…..

As of today bond yeilds are lower than they have ever been……..

You still think the tax farm slaves are going to bail on real estate when the cost of money is going to be just shy of being free.

why am I always right, it’s not fair, an un schooled drunk that can’t speel always gets it right….

ahhhhhh

#164 appraiser on 08.03.11 at 11:09 am

Fixed mortgage rates poised to drop. BoC overnight rate on hold indefinitely. Borrowers are rejoicing.

The longer the current interest rate environment lingers, the longer the real estate boom will last – whether we like it or not.

#165 GregW, Oakville on 08.03.11 at 11:10 am

I just wanted to say; Thankyou Garth for hosting your blog. Your prospective is greatly valued and appreciated!
But I’d guess you might already know that based on the six million hits a year. I hope you keep having fun. Greg.
“And most days it’s been fun being here. From zero visits then, there are now six million a year. That’s cool. Most people – well over 95% – come, read, enjoy (I think) and go back to being normal, getting creamy hot flashes over Bosch appliances.”.

#166 DJH on 08.03.11 at 11:12 am

For a moment I thought you were announcing the end of this blog. That would have been a downer. Admire and appreciate what you’re doing.

#167 Mr. Plow on 08.03.11 at 11:13 am

#98 LB

“Censorship, by any means, is the greater threat to the purpose of open forums such as this.”

Since when is this an open forum? Its not your blog, its not mine either. You have no basic right to post.

Therefore, how can is be censorship? Its a guy running his blog choosing what comments get shown on his blog and what don’t. It is no more complex than that.

#168 dd on 08.03.11 at 11:14 am

#64hobbygirl

…Then, of course, you’re losing money. Inflation is 3.4%. The potato’s a dud spud. — Garth..

Where? Inflation is alot higher than 3.4% in Canada.

#169 bigrider on 08.03.11 at 11:15 am

Markets getting hit. Time to buy?

I’m not sure

#170 TheBigLebowski on 08.03.11 at 11:15 am

DELETED

#171 BrianT on 08.03.11 at 11:19 am

#150CREA-Hyper expansion of monetary supply will only drive up the value of the minority of overall RE desired by those with access to the hyper expansion. No access to the taxpayer capital, no value increase in your neighbourhood.

#172 TheBigLebowski on 08.03.11 at 11:19 am

DELETED

#173 refinow on 08.03.11 at 11:20 am

Being this far down on this blog will not likely get much of a response, but I think hearing comments from the the extreme right and as well as the extreme left, helps put things in perspective.

Sensoring out comments that don’t match your own beliefs is a dangerous means of skewing the opinions of this blog. No different then what our government/banks/realtors are currently doing.

Ignorance is bliss ??

I find it very entertaining hearing from some of the extremist on this blog, I picture a few of them, standing on the the side of the road, with IPAD in hand for immediate updates on your site, and the sandwich boards over their head, telling the world to buy gold.

Please don’t filter out the crazies, there was a time not too long ago, when you Garth, wrote a book about the the fall of Real Estate, and you were on the side of the extreme left.

#174 Junius on 08.03.11 at 11:22 am

#132 ky,

You said, “Both the Real Estate pumpers and Gold Nuts are cut from the same cloth. Both share one thing in common – a fervently zealous, religious belief in the unending upward trajectory of their worshipped asset.”

True. It really is a religious like fervour.

I just don’t understand the gold bugs. The RE pumpers are easy to figure out. They require a mass hysteria and ever increasing prices to flip and sell their way to riches. However gold is different.

If you are a true believer in the doomer world view what is the point in recruiting others? Why not buy up as much gold as you can and then, at the last minute when the world is ending and gold prices rocket up, you can cash out enough of your yellow to survive the crash. I just don’t see the need to preach and gain converts.

I guess it really is just an emotional reaction to their deep insecurities about their predictions. The more followers the more they feel smug in their opinions.

I have held gold for years but always as a hedge. It is a small portion of my portfolio and probably always will be. However I am not signing up for a religion that worships and metal idol.

#175 arctodus on 08.03.11 at 11:26 am

Is it DOOM and Gloom if it comes true?

Energy is the true issue and all else is windowdressing….but most will never get that.

#176 Andrew on 08.03.11 at 11:32 am

Good for you – Your blog; your rules.

I enjoyed Money Road, and I always look forward to reading your blog postings.

You have every right to filter comments that are getting out of hand.

#177 CandleFish on 08.03.11 at 11:41 am

For Sale By Owner’ Founder Needs Broker to Sell His Apartment

http://gawker.com/5827297/for-sale-by-owner-founder-needs-broker-to-sell-his-apartment

#178 Bruce on 08.03.11 at 11:42 am

“I sure hope nobody reading this pathetic, disposable blog shorted the market for Monday morning, or loaded up on bullion at a Scotiabank branch Friday. If you did, bend over. Like I said, never bet against America.”

Never? Garth, you’re a smart guy but you have to admit some people may simply be better able to time the market or invest in a less diversified manner than you are. My gold and silver have made me a lot of money since last week. Will they forever? No. But I’m not holding forever, simply riding the trend. Now I have more cash and cheaper prices to purchase some good value stocks.

#179 Deanne on 08.03.11 at 11:46 am

I relish your blog. Great stuff and don’t let the trolls get you down.
Live in Van, noticed a condo in Cambie ‘Village’ has been on market for about 5 weeks now. Went to open house out of curiosity – not a terrible place, but priced terribly high IMHO @ 519k for 2 bedroom. It’s been lowered to 509, still sitting there. In a very desirable, rarely available unit!….
Cheers

#180 Mike Barnes on 08.03.11 at 11:49 am

Moderate away, Mr. Turner, and thank you for freely giving the gift of your knowledge and wisdom in this blog to anyone smart enough to listen. Anyone who just rants and will not engage in respectful conversation and debate should be sent a message to go elsewhere.

I threw Chapters a 20 for Money Road (I wanted it right away without waiting for shipping) and am finding it hard to put it down – a wise investment of 20 bucks that is going to pay dividends in the future. I am encouraging loved ones and friends not convinced enough to invest the 20 to go look in local libraries, and have found that there are many copies available. It amazes me that most people (including me too mostly) seem content with ignoring true wisdom such as that in your book, and flock to the popular misconceptions in conventional “wisdom” brought about by emotional reactions to happenings in global economics, finance and politics. Emotion can be a great gift in human relations, but needs to be left out of financial decisions, especially very large ones like buying and selling real estate.

I occasionally catch “pawn stars” on the history channel, and am amazed at people’s reasons for selling their valuable stuff. But one thing that stuck in my mind was a comment the owner made regarding emotional purchases and that he needs to buy stuff cheap enough to resell it and make a profit: “If I fall in love with an item and pay too much for it, I usually end up married to it!”. May we all be wise enough to not end up married to illiquid assets that drag us under, and that would cost us even more to sell!

#181 Snowboid on 08.03.11 at 11:50 am

Interesting story in the Victoria Times Colonist:

A local real estate agent states: “…the consensus among colleagues is offers are coming in well off the listing price.

It will be up to the sellers to come to grips with that reality.

The buyers aren’t lowballing, they are saying that’s what they will pay.”

Victoria is now officially a ‘buyers’ market!

#182 Devore on 08.03.11 at 11:56 am

#150 CREA Circle Jerk

Any real GDP growth for the next 5+ years will probably be due almost exclusively to inflation.

Gotta be careful talking about real growth and inflation. Real growth is net of inflation.

Sometimes there are posters here saying well who cares about inflation, and about CPI, and whether it’s correct or not.

(Real) growth and CPI are very important to the economy, because central bank and government policy is based on those two metrics, and both central bank and government policy have a huge impact to the economy.

Lets look at an example. Say, growth in 2011 will be 3%, and inflation (CPI) 2%. Then real growth is actually 1%, after adjusting for inflation. But, if CPI is understated or not measured correctly, this can be very misleading. Say economic growth was measured to be 3%, but the real inflation is 4%. Then your economy actually shrunk by 1%; the 1% growth that was calculated earlier was really fake growth.

CPI affects everything. Government benefits and expenditures, anything indexed to inflation, monetary and economic policy of all sorts, real return bonds, even figuring out how your investments are performing.

In the US they are now seriously considering changing how CPI is calculated to “reduce government expenditures”, which is just another way to say CPI will under-measure inflation. This will also boost “growth”.

#183 Ben Nevis on 08.03.11 at 11:59 am

Whew. For a minute I thought you were going to give up! PLEASE – NEVER GIVE UP! We read your blog daily and it reflects what we see around us in Victoria 100% more accurately than the droning media spin. Did you see the average SFH price fall in Victoria for July? We are SO fed up looking at truly dire sheds and shacks for ridiculous amounts of money in this place ….but you keep us sane. Keep going, Garth, do keep going……

#184 devils advocate on 08.03.11 at 12:01 pm

Seriously…you are letting Nostradomus le Mad Vlad continue to post? He’s the biggest tin foil hat wearer in the comments section. I dare say he is a professional conspiracy theorist. Not an amateur. He has posted links predicting the end of the world more times than i can count. Posts like that marginalize your blog. Just sayin…

#185 J:LG on 08.03.11 at 12:04 pm

Glad to hear it as I’ve stopped reading the comments a while back. Not that there aren’t very shiny nuggets to pick out, but lately there has been more chaff than I have patience.

I would like to hear your thoughts on the ‘First Trust Nasdaq Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund’ if you could pen a little something. From my understanding this is a new fund that will perch atop this new agenda to upgrade the Edison/Tesla era infrastructure we currently have buzzing and popping away right now. From what I have picked up so far it seems as though this is something the US, Canada, and large parts of Europe are taking a serious look at.

#186 Dean on 08.03.11 at 12:09 pm

Way to go Garth!! I’ve read this blog since the start.
I do believe we are in for some nasty stuff in the future but I stopped talking about it!! Who wants to hear about that! Anyway you do a great here and I hope you keep it up.

#187 Steven Rowlandson on 08.03.11 at 12:13 pm

Will gold drop if the fed stops printing? May be momentarily but the united states is not the whole world and politicians will never accept moral and fiscal rectitude for very long if at all. Gold and silver is a limited resource and money. Fiat currency is easy to create at will. This is marx’s dictum,” From each according to his ability to each according to his need ” , in action. Proper money might be good moral monetary policy but it does not meet the needs of politicians and bankers. If in doubt just ask Garth.
He will insist that electronic and paper currency backed by debt or nothing is legal and proper money.
So really you have a choice. Trust bankers and politicians and all they decree or you can trust god, gold, silver and your own best judgement and thinking.

Gold is not money. This is not a gold blog. Go pump somewhere else. — Garth

#188 gladiator on 08.03.11 at 12:14 pm

How can we make this guy the US president so that he cleans up its political landscape with some of his unusual methods?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-fWN0FmcIU&feature=player_embedded

#189 DDLama on 08.03.11 at 12:15 pm

Hi Garth,
I’ve been reading your blog for over a year now and I really enjoy it. You have saved me a lot of heartache when I was seriously considering purchasing a rental property. I thank you for stopping me from doing such a foolish thing.
Please don’t let some of the negative people stop you from doing such a great service!
I have learned so much from your blog! Keep it up!

#190 dave in Victoria on 08.03.11 at 12:19 pm

Garth, you’ll probably want to add psychiatry to your list of services. I imagine that the intrinsic motivation for many to post, crackpot and not, is the opportunity to be listened to on matters of potential import.

People feel alienated, admittedly or not, and you provide connection.

That said, sometimes even the desperate and dependent need to learn a lesson. So by all means, bring out the muzzles.

#191 biil c on 08.03.11 at 12:28 pm

Can someone please take a drive to cottage country. There are for sale signs on every street. In 25 years I have never seen that many cottages for sale. All I see is For Sale and Reduced. Houston we have a problem and is anyone aware that month over month prices have fallen from their peak in May in the GTA. Correction is here. IT HAS ARRIVED….1991 is back and many are going to be hurt much worse than they imagined.

#192 BrianT on 08.03.11 at 12:33 pm

#174Jun-You have an illogical assumption that gold investors require “doom” to make money. Gold has done very well over the last 8 yrs-was that period “doom” as you describe it? My advice to you would be to put your fears and emotion aside and try to think logically.

#193 HouseBuster on 08.03.11 at 12:34 pm

Garth, You should ban all posts making any reference to gold or PMs. Send these amateur gold bugs back the basements they crawled out of.

#194 SRV ES339 on 08.03.11 at 12:35 pm

Not much time for RE lately… busy following the DC Circus and how it affects my PMs investments.

I’m an investor in gold, & a trader in silver (because they make financial sense to me) and have defended them against some of your blanket comments (investing in PMs does not make you a Tin Hat, gun toting wacko)… I sincerely hope I wasn’t one of the rude ones (as I said I haven’t seen many comments of late) and support your right to block disruptive comments from your site.

With you 100% on your R/E calls btw…

#195 bigrider on 08.03.11 at 12:35 pm

#163- Smoking man.

You are right about exodus from equities to bonds. I have always feared that yields would “go to the basement” as you put it and more fearful than that I am of lower rates and a continuing real estate frenzy here in Canada a result.

If the prognosis is for lower rates(at least that is what the bond market is telling us) and continued RE price increases as net result of lower rates, then GOD knows what I am going to do with my ears when all of the genius, wanna be Donald Trump RE humpers decend on me to say “I told you so”.

I pray for a devaluing of my fully paid home everyday.

#196 HouseBuster on 08.03.11 at 12:36 pm

If the Dow closes in the red today it will mark the most consecutive down days since 1974.

#197 Helicopter Ben on 08.03.11 at 12:37 pm

some one should count the amount of people who have categorized and bashed the so called gold bugs and doomers and you will find that they are the ones being rude. gold is up big and somehow we are wrong and demonized. its dangerous to categorize people and lump them all together. Obviously gold and silver are just metals just like obviously fiat money is just paper derived from trees. neither has value with out collective thought saying it is, socioeconomics . Money = Trust. with out trust you dont have money, my argument is there is lack of trust in fiat currency and that trust must go somewhere and it usually goes to gold and silver in those times along with the value of the old money. perception is reality. we dont live in a physical world. I think this blog would get pretty boring if you only talked about real estate as there isnt much to it. taxes are going up, boomers retiring. interest rates going up, sales down, exports slow as the united states economy slows and canadian dollar goes up. people supersaturated on credit . that about sums it up now its a waiting game. I am not someone who sits in my parents basement reading gold books waiting for the world to end. I like your blog Garth and appreciate you spending all the time on here while taking a loss, i was considering buy a home few years back but after contemplating it and reading this site i decided against it. I do think its a mistake though to sensor one side of the story. the more gold goes up the more rude gold haters come out of the wood work it seems. if you look at this blog without bias you will see there is rude people on all sides. just my opinion.

#198 Cookie Monster on 08.03.11 at 12:41 pm

Garth, I don’t know if I’m part of the group who you consider to have been rude and petulant lately, but if I’ve been seemingly disrespectful in any of my postings lately I’d like to point out that it’s always been in response to something you say first. Whether it’s calling people names or defending your position with government hired economics expert studies and opinions as with the effects of the GST the other day.

When it comes to governments and economics there’s bound to be some pretty strong and emotional opinions these days. I mean, there is no other force in any persons life now more threatening then our out of control governments and the havoc being caused globally by these global gangs of immoral coercive thugs.

So, I’ll say it again, I’m not a gold bug, but I understand what gold is, gold is money. If you refuse to see the truth after so many of us have tried pointing it out to you then fine, you’re on your own. I give up twice now.

#199 SM on 08.03.11 at 12:49 pm

Hi Garth

Having rude and disrespectful comments on your blogs only reinforces your point. I appreciate you taking the time out to blog since you support your point with well done research.

Don’t let those weasels annoy you.

Today’s blog entry was a much needed one.

SM

#200 DBB on 08.03.11 at 12:52 pm

OK Garth.. as long as you don’t plan on abiding by the “only express yourself without shredding others” rule. If you did that, I for one might get bored.

#201 Joshua on 08.03.11 at 12:57 pm

Censorship is a slippery slope. I agree with your decision, but I don’t envy it.

#202 Miko on 08.03.11 at 12:57 pm

so are you deleting all posts that don’t agree with your views on PM? or your views in general? just so I’m clear.

The only time the posts seem negative is when someone disagrees with you, and then enviably you come back with a snarky remark.

Posts that use the denigration of others to make their points will not be published. If you can’t argue without kicking your opponent, you fail. — Garth

#203 Abitibi Doug on 08.03.11 at 1:08 pm

I remember thinking back in 2007 that real estate was getting too pricey, then in late 2008 the crash started and it looked like correction had started. In 2009, markets in Canada started going up again while they continued to fall in the United States. Most media sources promoted the idea of how “it’s different here” for many reasons and the market will keep going up. Once you cross that imaginary line in the middle of the Niagara River, do you really enter a different world where the laws of economics simply don’t apply? Many thanks to Garth for reminding us, many times, that it’s not different here and a correction is coming. Oh sure, it has taken longer than he predicted, but it’s absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to predict how high and for how long a bubble will go on. Now many mainstream media sources have been saying what this sad blog has been saying for the last 3 years.

Just watch, over the coming years a lot of economic analysts will teleport out of nowhere and say they saw the real estate correction coming, just like those who said they saw the tech wreck coming. That’s all cheap talk that means nothing, unless you said (as Garth has) that you saw it coming before it occured. Good stuff, I’ve enjoyed reading this sad blog.

#204 geo on 08.03.11 at 1:16 pm

Hey Garth;
I’ve been perusing your self proclaimed “pathetic blog” for a few months now. Money Road I’ve read as well. gonna check out your other stuff shortly. I compare and contrast with other authors. I appreciate the effort you expend here. Thank you very much. p.s. don’t lose the humor ol’ fella…

#205 MasterBootLicker on 08.03.11 at 1:19 pm

A simple question for the dogs. How can we have a fair and constructive debate regarding finance when we are restricted to only discussing financial assets and no alternatives ? Doesn’t this turn the blog into nothing more than a kangaroo court ? There is a big complicated world out there, but it feels as though we are being forced to wear financial horse blinders when it comes to our discussions.

That has never been the case here. Free speech is welcomed. Ad hominem spewing is not. — Garth

#206 Barry in Pickering on 08.03.11 at 1:40 pm

>>> Express yourself without shredding others, and you’re free to speak.

I would prefer that people just be “free to speak”, without the qualifications and censure. That’s part of being Canadian. Grow a thicker skin Garth!

#207 Neo on 08.03.11 at 1:43 pm

#163Smoking Man on 08.03.11 at 11:08 am
Wow Wow and Wow
Can you say free falling, TSE getting killed, grass hoppers remember what I said about batmans ears few months ago….Works like a charm.

Now Grass hoppers copy my post, make a pic of it and save it as your desktop back ground. I read all your links and info and someone said this and someone said that and this . Means nothing compaid to what I am going to show you

Now Read and learn………………..

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

this was yesterday, The equity market follows the bond market.

Huge money is bailing on equities and buying bonds. sending yeilds to basment….. Meaning fix rate mortgages are about to drop like lead on jupiter…..

As of today bond yeilds are lower than they have ever been……..

You still think the tax farm slaves are going to bail on real estate when the cost of money is going to be just shy of being free.

why am I always right, it’s not fair, an un schooled drunk that can’t speel always gets it right….

ahhhhhh

********************************************

Smoking Man.. Here is what you are missing in your analysis. The bond market is signaling another crash like 2008. If that happens you can kiss real estate in Canada goodbye. Remember, it was lack of confidence that caused prices to drop 15% in 2008, not interest rate hikes, and now we add the European trainwreck to the mix this time around. Benefiting from lower rates won’t mean much if you fear losing your job because of a recession that never ended in the first place and your monthly investment statements coming in the mail are tanking. This market is being driven by confidence, not fundamentals. Fundamentals is as solid as a foundation. Confidence is fleeting.

#208 Neo on 08.03.11 at 1:44 pm

edit: By market, I meant housing market.

#209 Devore on 08.03.11 at 1:47 pm

http://harveyoberfeld.ca/blog/cknw-has-a-jurock-problem/

Vancouver real estate pumpers under fire. Jurock is named in two lawsuits seeing class action status for allegedly leading investors to purchase defective and money losing properties. (Of course, had those units appreciated in price, instead of declined, everyone would be smiles. Failure, it is proven repeatedly, is an orphan.)

To boot, the Money talks show on CKNW continues to have Jurock as their regular guest discussing real estate investment opportunities.

We can expect the media to flog whatever message is more profitable to them at any given time. They will continue to blow sunshine up our collective skirts, if it means making a buck.

#210 Devore on 08.03.11 at 1:53 pm

Oops, h/t The [email protected]VCI for that story, I try to give credit for things I borrow.

#211 Andrea on 08.03.11 at 1:59 pm

Hi Garth
I’m very new here to your site – found it through a “like” that someone I really respect had on FB. I have read only 2 blogs and already you have me thinking through a different paradigm. E.g. Our family home is really the only net worth we have other than its contents and our good health and work ethic. I have no idea what to do with my RRSPs and bonds etc. I have been helping people for 35 years and know very little about money or business. I am sorry you and others have had to read comments that are demeaning as opposed to investigative or challenging. There isn’t a perverse reason that you keep writing us, but in fact a good one. I am going to be visiting the library on the weekend and will look for the book many have posted about above. Thanks Garth and have a great day.

#212 Vancouverite on 08.03.11 at 2:02 pm

DELETED

#213 MOZ on 08.03.11 at 2:05 pm

Hi Garth,

I have been reading your blog for the past 6 months or so having been referred here by a friend. Living in the “house-porn” capital of Vancouver, I find your comments to be very interesting. I have never posted a comment here before, but given your blog today, I thought I should give a shout out to you to say a big thank you. While I do not agree with everything you say, you certainly come across as a very intelligent individual who is trying to help his fellow Canadians. Thank you for the time you put in on a daily basis to keep up this blog!

Now that we’ve gotten the formalities out of the way, I would like to weigh in on the Vancouver housing market. While I agee that the market here is insane, and there is probably nowhere for prices to go but down, I think there are some fundamentals that will keep prices fairly consistent. For example, I think you underestimate the impact of the Chinese buyers. Unless the Canadian government comes up with much stonger legislation to keep foreign investment out, the Chinese will still come in droves. From what I hear from well connected Chinese friends, the super-rich in China have been easily skirting around China’s current laws to keep wealth in China. I know many people who have made offers on homes only to be beaten in the end by a wealthy Chinese buyer. I hear similar stories in Australia. The Vancouver real estate makret is no longer only dependant on the local economy. It is now a true international city. As such, while increasing interest rates, and a poor Canadian economy will certainly have some impact, I don’t think it will end up being as large as in other areas of B.C. or Canada. You only have to look at the current market to see this – Vancouver is up while the rest of B.C. languishes, as do much of the rest of Canada. I know Garth will come back as me with, “Here’s another example of ‘It’s different here…'”. But then again, why hasn’t San Francisco proper really suffered much compared with other parts of California? It all comes back to simple economics – supply and demand.

#214 CREA Circle Jerk on 08.03.11 at 2:06 pm

#182 Devore said:

“Gotta be careful talking about real growth and inflation. Real growth is net of inflation.

Sometimes there are posters here saying well who cares about inflation, and about CPI, and whether it’s correct or not.”

I was talking about real, organic growth (North America and Europe). There isn’t going to be real organic growth for many years for a variety of reasons; the 2 biggest ones being government & personal debt saturation and inflation. The United States only continued to compound their problems by upping the debt ceiling without meaningfully cutting spending. I agree that corporate taxes should be raised on those tax-dodging multinational corporations, but doing so will only transfer fixed goods prices to the end user – prices we can’t afford to pay NOW.

The bottom line is that western nations must restructure their debt and make their economies more competitive before any organic growth can resume. The consumer driven economy is dead. Western economies must slash & burn spending and restructure, and that will cause a huge protracted depression. Unfortunately, it’s obvious to anybody with half a brain politicians don’t have the political will to take the measures needed to get past this perpetual growth crisis that needed to sustain the debt which has accumulated in the economy. Their only prescription is money printing and force-stuffing credit (liquidity) to a problem that is structural in nature.

The great paradox is that the markets are both incredible tough to gauge yet incredibly easy to decipher. The former because of all the government intervention and inflationary/deflationary headwinds abounding and the latter because the macroeconomic view is easy to read – money printing and credit will be forced down the system until inflation becomes unbearable and there’s some systematic event which forces a restructuring (grand deal?). Great for PM’s – ok for stocks (better than cash) – terrible for housing.

#215 Agio on 08.03.11 at 2:11 pm

I’d say about time but after a ‘debate’ with a gold lovin the end is near person on this site awhile back I ignore the comments and stick to the articles you write-occasionally I even read them in their entirety. Plus you put up spiffy pics.

#216 Lori on 08.03.11 at 2:13 pm

Garth, Just wanted to say thank you for this blog. Six months ago we were seriously looking to buy in Toronto. Now we are happily renting a great house and investing our money while waiting for the real estate prices to get more realistic. Whenever I feel the urge to buy a house I visit your blog for a dose of reality (and to view the hilarious pictures).

#217 vyw on 08.03.11 at 2:26 pm

Vancouver prices have stabilized in July (compared to June) but still up YOY:

http://www.rebgv.org/news-statistics/active-home-sellers-bring-greater-selection-greater-vancouver-housing-market

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/vancouvers-hot-housing-market-cools-slightly/article2118385/

#218 Junius on 08.03.11 at 2:43 pm

#192 BrianT,

You said, “You have an illogical assumption that gold investors require “doom” to make money.”

I didn’t say that. I don’t think that. However since gold has little intrinsic value I think we both can agree that it is a speculative asset. It certainly trades well above its “jewelry” value.

I also said that I own it as a hedge. I think we can both agree that gold’s appreciation over the past few years is based on a lack of confidence in the underlying economy.

My point is that I don’t understand why someone who is a gold bug and a doomer is interested in spreading the word. Why drive up prices now? Keep the secret to yourself and then cash out later.

If you want to continue to be so rude I am more than happy to play your game as you are consistently an easy target. However I will give it a pass this time.

#219 betamax on 08.03.11 at 2:47 pm

“Hard to know if these people are impassioned zealots blindly consumed with their own ideology, or just pricks.”

LOL. Great line. Great post, too. Happy to see the riffraff being shown the door. This blog is an oasis, a bastion, a lighthouse. Long may it shine.

#220 Rich Renter on 08.03.11 at 2:51 pm

Sounds like the Harley will be getting a spin at the weekend to forget some folks on this pathetic blog.

#221 Agio on 08.03.11 at 3:00 pm

@ 204
I would prefer that people just be “free to speak”, without the qualifications and censure. That’s part of being Canadian. Grow a thicker skin Garth!

——————————————————————-
This post and all like it crack me up. This is a free site owned and operated by one individual. It’s not a democratoc institution nor are you entitled to say whatever you want even though many think they are. Common thinking on the innernets but it’s a privilege not a right and wholly at the discretion of the person footing the bills. In short, it’s an evil totalitarian regime.

#222 jrochest on 08.03.11 at 3:16 pm

I think this is the first time in months that I’ve read right through the comments: it’s been a conspiracy-theory fest-o-matic for far too long. I think the value of the comments section has declined because of it. It’s not Metafilter or Boing Boing or Pharyngula or Patrick.net, where the conversation in the comments is half the fun. It’s been more like a walk through a cloud of blackflies: they’re all annoying, but you can only swat so many of them.

Get a couple of mods to help you. Set some ground rules. I don’t mind the “FirSt!” idiots; it’s the cut-and-pasted five paragraph rants that get me down.

#223 The InvestorsFriend on 08.03.11 at 3:16 pm

VALUE OF COMMENTS

I can’t believe Garth reads all the way through a lot of the comments and even clicks on some of the links.

Most comments are good for enterntainment value only. And the sparring that goes on adds to the entertainment. I think spirited debate is great as long as we try not to be too insulting and refrain from serious name calling (Let’s not pretend we actually respect all view points though, we don’t. You know it, I know and Garth, I mean God, knows it.).

I still respect you. — Garth

#224 Luc on 08.03.11 at 3:33 pm

If gold is not money, why can I go to the bank and exchange gold for money?

I understand that it’s not easy to exchange gold for food, services or products instantly, but isn’t just a time lapse before I run to the bank with my coins to exchange them for cash?

If I gave you a gold coin, what would you do with it, Garth?

This is not a gold blog. — Garth

#225 Devore on 08.03.11 at 3:38 pm

#213 MOZ

The Vancouver real estate makret is no longer only dependant on the local economy. It is now a true international city.

How can it be a trul international city, when all you, or anyone else, are only talking about wealthy Chinese treating it as a resort town, easily outbidding locals for preferred real estate?

Is there interests from all corners of the world? Are the businesses starting up, multi-national companies opening offices, relocating headquarters? Are local wages going up with a tight labour market? Blossoming cultural activities, industry and arts? No, it remains a local provincial town with limited economy and industry, and little international significance.

#226 BrianT on 08.03.11 at 3:44 pm

#218Jun-I don’t know where you got the idea that blogging on this site affects the price of gold.

#227 Suzi on 08.03.11 at 3:44 pm

Great post Garth. I am one of the 95%, I come, I read, I enjoy. But I don’t get excited about Bosch appliances. In fact I don’t own a home. I woud like one, don’t get me wrong, but people simply want far too much for far too little. I don’t care about fancy appliances, or countertops made of rocks. I cancelled my TV two years ago, no HGTV, so no opiates for me.

I hope you keep this site going Garth, I enjoy your posts.

#228 disciple on 08.03.11 at 3:50 pm

Complaints of rudeness? Thy cups runneth over with hypocrisy; alors, it is the most human trait.

For those who are afraid to explore outside of their little bubbles, I wouldn’t trade half a renminbi to hear your opinion of me, for it is none of my business anyway. I have not aimed to offend anyone or waste anyone’s time. Quite the opposite.

Billions in profits are made from the manufacture of killing machines, and we call this progress? To the insane folks who turn a blind eye, it is progress if these machines are used and depleted to make room for more.

I will continue my pledge to give you the other half of the story, real value for your time, but at the present moment, call me a gloomer, AKA Gen X-er.

Gloom gripped North America and Europe long ago, it is inevitable, it is prophesied, it is planned obsolescence; but, on the other side of the world, it is nothing but boom and zoom ahead. Do you want more money? Well, then, invest in yourself. North America exports its technology, such that the few at the top benefit, while the rest do not. Awaken thyself, and take back this power into your own hands. Local growth economies will rise out of the ashes, as globalism is defeated. Not only can I predict this future, I have seen it. It’s a simple algorithm. The future is NOW. The long-held-back secrets of energy production can no longer be hidden from a hungry and desperate world. That divine spark will ignite an inferno in some bright mind, if it hasn’t already…

Have faith, our children will redeem us. An archaic revival. Solving problems in our future by reconnecting with our past…soon to be a corporate motto somewhere, look out for it.

#229 george richey on 08.03.11 at 3:50 pm

Hi Garth
I enjoy reading your blog!
It is hard to get a balanced and reasonable point of view when most points of view are given by people with an agenda or derive their money from real estate.
Thanks,
GR

#230 Kevin in BC on 08.03.11 at 4:00 pm

Its one thing to censor messages because they are rude or offensive. But another to censor them because they are about investment topics not liked by the moderator (gold).

That seems silly, hopefully Garth will get tired of censoring messages, as the comments section is one of the best parts of this blog…

I do not censure by subject. But I will no longer tolerate those who decry and ridicule others because they disagree. Get used to it. — Garth

#231 Mr. Renter on 08.03.11 at 4:02 pm

Hey Garth,
I have bought every book you have written and really enjoyed Money Road. The reason I read your blog regularly is to help keep myself focussed and avoid the crazy house lust here in Vancouver.
Thanks,
Surrey

#232 Two-thirds on 08.03.11 at 4:04 pm

Breaking news:

David Rosenberg has just called for a U.S. recession, calling it “a virtual certainty.”

Buckle up, people, it’s going to be a bumpy ride ahead in 2011.

:(

#233 BCfarmer on 08.03.11 at 4:18 pm

First time I’ve ever posted. I like this blog, I read it daily. I don’t read the comments all the time…I often just gloss over them, especially if someone goes on a rant or is rude. Ignore the jerks…..To put it in pseudo Latin:

Illegitimi non carborundum

Looking forward to the next book.

#234 timo on 08.03.11 at 4:28 pm

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/03/us-usa-states-jobless-idUSTRE7725Z520110803

http://www.rob-servations.com/1/post/2011/7/social-security-reform-bill-encourages-americans-to-live-faster-die-younger.html

This is just sad? The US consumer is definitely going out to shop now.

#235 dave99 on 08.03.11 at 4:36 pm

Those people who think they know everything, really iritate those of us who do.

#236 jess on 08.03.11 at 5:09 pm

.#82 Into the Sunset –
Did you get that number from this gentleman?

The former comptroller General: 1998 -2008
” ” ” government accountability
” ” ” anderson executive in charge of global

All those titles/letters behind one’s name and years of experience ….of course one would want to listen and heed…but where was his voice BEFORE the debt clock started ticking? Where was his voice in regard to all the accounting frauds etc. ? The 11 billion dollar one is still vivid.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MCI_Inc.

==
War sector (decisive x 11years)
http://blog.ted.com/2011/07/25/time-to-end-the-war-in-afghanistan-rory-stewart-on-ted-com/

The new line of drones? Killing at a distance and to be able to hear from great heights is $$$$

Who gains from debt deal? The Pentagon, for one

Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/08/01/119061/who-gains-from-debt-deal-the-pentagon.html#storylink=omni_popular#ixzz1U0BU6VB4
Read more: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/08/01/119061/who-gains-from-debt-deal-the-pentagon.html#storylink=omni_popular#ixzz1U08vNWQF

#237 Junius on 08.03.11 at 5:18 pm

#226 BrianT,

You know, you are right. No one could possibly act on our advice. I take it all back.

#238 VanLarry on 08.03.11 at 5:29 pm

And I look across the ocean at Hong Kong.

http://www.cnngo.com/hong-kong/life/kings-cube-every-hong-kongers-fantasy-and%E2%80%A6-nightmare-108829

The actual video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKf08vWTkKA

Enjoy.

#239 bigrider on 08.03.11 at 5:46 pm

#232 Two-Thirds on ” David Rosenberg ”

David Rosenberg hasn’t gotten anything right in years.

Why would you continue to read his material?

#240 Devore on 08.03.11 at 5:47 pm

Been waiting for this link to show up (as seen on VCI today), but no one’s dropping it, so here goes:

http://www.economist.com/node/4079027

Keep in mind, it was written in 2005.

Since then, in Canada, we have seen the 0/40 mortgage, virtual elimination of lending standards, a bust, and rates dropped to 0.

Lots of prescient tidbits in there.

#241 timo on 08.03.11 at 5:55 pm

http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2011/08/02/hsbc_30000_layoffs_survivors_guilt/?section=magazines_fortune

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14368317

They cannot even wait one week before announcing these changes.

#242 Mr. Reality on 08.03.11 at 6:16 pm

All the crankpots and their slandering is proof we are headed into a debt induced recession. People get cranky and spew the net-hate when times are tough. Its the easy way out.

I for one can separate reality and realize that typed words on this retchid blog are just words. It is impossible to discern sarcasm, anger, rage or emotions without emotions…..

Wait a minute Garth that’s it! We need emoticons to truly present our feelings!

You should of already starting shorting the TSX…..

Mr R

#243 EdmontonJim on 08.03.11 at 6:44 pm

I’ll reiterate my overall philosophy;
All society, and all economies are about power and trust.
This blog is a society. We all come here for the entertainment and enlightenment, not to be insulted, that’s trust.
In order for the trust to continue, there has to be boundaries and rules. This is Garth’s court and he owns the ball, so to speak, so he gets to set the rules, and enforce them if he has to. Thats power.
Those who don’t like the rules can decide to play by them anyway, or they can leave, or they can throw a tantrum, whatever. This is also power. I mean if everyone decided they couldn’t abide the rules, they’d just leave, and Garth would be left without an audience, which as an entertainer, is the ultimate dis’.

But most of us like the rules, or at least consider them a fair trade for the otherwise free service offered here. And if Garth says “new rule” (remembering that this is his court and his ball), then that’s just fine, especially since it’s just human decency.

And as in the blog, so in life. As far as people trust each other, society gets on fine, free trade works well, and wealth grows for everyone. But when people stop trusting (caused by greed, fear, bullying and deceit), then bubbles form, stocks crash, banks fail, wars start and everyone gets poorer.
The best thing you can do for yourself and society is to stop trusting things(like PMs and RE), and start trusting principles (like value=utility+margin) and people (irrational but intelligent), and that means being civil.
In Garth we Trust. Play ball!(nicely)

#244 timo on 08.03.11 at 7:37 pm

lol, funny video ponzi scheme

http://timiacono.com/index.php/2010/08/16/how-a-ponzi-scheme-works-and-more/

#245 Michelle on 08.03.11 at 7:50 pm

Please, please, please…
Would the likes of “Disciple” and “Helicopter Ben” please start their own blog and post their overly long manifestos there?
The rest of us readers come to this blog to be enlighted by Garth and to discuss his ideas here. If we want your “wisdom”, we should be able to choose to go to your blog. Stop trying to hijack the topic on this blog just so that you can hear yourself talk and get a rise out of people. It’s passive-aggressive…

…and that last comment is a professional diagnosis.

#246 Thetruth on 08.03.11 at 8:07 pm

Bond Yields for 5 year fixed rate mortgages crashing. People on variable will lock in during the next few months.

Short term rates aren’t going anywhere soon… and when they do… it won’t matter; most owners will be locked in 2.99% 5 year mortgages!

Rents will rise in cities (immigration) while the relative cost of owning will decline (lower mortgage rates).

By the time the reckoning arrives in 2016-2017, inflation will have inflated the relative value of debt away.

I’m calling for a stable market in Toronto and Vancouver for the next 5 years now. There is a possibility of a mini-boom if rates for 5 year get to 2.99%.

Those 17,000 condos in Toronto will be snapped up in a heartbeat…to be rented out to new immigrants.

#247 Devore on 08.03.11 at 8:40 pm

#246 Thetruth

Those 17,000 condos in Toronto will be snapped up in a heartbeat…to be rented out to new immigrants.

Is this like HAM for condos?

Most immigrants (90%+) either reside with family, or arrive with a family, hardly the profile suitable for a 1 bedroom or a studio ratbox in the sky that are so popular amongst investors. They are also increasingly lower income than in years past, hardly in a position to be spending upwards of $1600 on a brand new luxury condo.

#248 TurnerNation on 08.03.11 at 8:42 pm

Here’s an Alice Cooper ditty, reflecting this axiomatic weblog’s new tone:

(The opening bars are some of the most memorable of its era!).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIe6rXmsUwk

#249 45north on 08.03.11 at 8:50 pm

jess: Rory Stewart: Bosnia and Kosovo were great successes

his analogy with mountain rescue is apt

#250 Daisy Mae on 08.03.11 at 8:51 pm

Barry in Pickering on 08.03.11 at 1:40 pm >>> Express yourself without shredding others, and you’re free to speak.

“I would prefer that people just be “free to speak”, without the qualifications and censure. That’s part of being Canadian. Grow a thicker skin Garth!”

***************************

Being rude and demeaning is part of being Canadian?

#251 45north on 08.03.11 at 9:02 pm

while others have been distracted by the US debt crisis, garbage bags with ties have been removed from the shelves replaced with “easy tie” and “new tie” which are just plastic bags with flaps on them

you can still buy twist ties in rolls and tie them on yourself!

Thank you. We needed that. — Garth

#252 eddy on 08.03.11 at 9:06 pm

Bill Still on the debt ceiling-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rq8s0JShs7o

Give it up. Money is here to stay. — Garth

#253 Steady Eddie on 08.03.11 at 9:09 pm

I disagree. Other than vulgarity, I don’t see any reason to censor comments. To boot, I would just replace the vulgarity with asterisks. Tangents in topics or jumping in a different quantum universe altogether should be allowed so long as it is related to finances in some way or another. The point is stimulate conversation and introduce people to new topics. Otherwise, it might become to vanilla.

Ultimately, even this pathetic blog will be data mined in 100 years for some history book and what better way to understand what people were thinking or behaving at this unique point in time than by leaving all the comments in.

BTW, gold hit a high $1674/oz. The solution to the debt ceiling isn’t approving the hike. All other 70 hikes created no debate, why this time? Sneak in super-congress legislation to circumvent congress, prepare for an assault on medicare, medicaid and social services…

Wall Street Warns Tim Geithner That The Dollar Is Starting To Lose Its Reserve Status
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/wall-street-warns-tim-geithner-dollar-staring-lose-its-reserve-status

Peace out!

#254 Susan from London area on 08.03.11 at 9:10 pm

I never read the comments anyway. Without knowing the credentials of the commentors it’s all just dust in the wind, causing confusion and taking up to much valuable time.
Water off a ducks back Garth, and keep on trucking.
Thanks for your integrity, sincerity, and honesty, oh okay your charming wit too.

#255 Habbit on 08.03.11 at 9:10 pm

Hi Garth. I am not an educated man and have been a tradesperson most of my working life. There is so much info and mumbo jumbo out there it realy is difficult to make informed decisions with the advise from the nice lady at the bank. I visit your blog daily and want to thank you and your familly for making sense of the confusion for us working folk. A smart old gentleman once told me to remember they all want your money. You need to learn to save and grow it to prosper. You and the blog dogs have made the task less troublesome for me and my familly. There is much I need to learn yet but you all are a great help. Thank you all. Never been first at anything and don’t need to be.

#256 brucey bonus on 08.03.11 at 10:04 pm

its not gay, if it’s a 3 way

#257 Tony on 08.03.11 at 10:25 pm

The stupid people who post here about gold and silver are the clueless morons in real life who look for the one assured thing in life that will make them rich. People with a background in economics know that doesn’t exist. The people who don’t know up from down are the fools who chase both gold and silver and will end up losing all their money… but it’s nice to see them posting knowing what will happen to them.

#258 disciple on 08.03.11 at 10:52 pm

#245 Michelle…All of my comments relate to either economics, real estate, money or the road ahead. If you don’t see the connections, then that says oodles about you. (Not a professional diagnosis).

#259 Tony on 08.03.11 at 10:56 pm

#196 HouseBuster

I remember about 4 times in the past 5 years the dow dropped 8 straight business days in a row. I guess a day or two suckers rally will ensue after today followed by a fall to the 10,000 level by this October.

#260 Robert Dudek on 08.03.11 at 11:11 pm

Tony wrote:

The stupid people who post here about gold and silver are the clueless morons in real life who look for the one assured thing in life that will make them rich. People with a background in economics know that doesn’t exist. The people who don’t know up from down are the fools who chase both gold and silver and will end up losing all their money… but it’s nice to see them posting knowing what will happen to them.

Garth’s moderator… as per the new policy of deleting ad hominem attacks. I request that you delete Tony’s post. Thanks.

Actually he doesn’t attack any individual. I will allow it. — Garth

#261 Michelle on 08.03.11 at 11:50 pm

#245 Disciple, here’s a selection of your comments:

“Complaints of rudeness? Thy cups runneth over with hypocrisy”.

“For those who are afraid to explore outside of their little bubbles, I wouldn’t trade half a renminbi to hear your opinion of me…”

“I will continue my pledge to give you the other half of the story, real value for your time, but at the present moment, call me a gloomer, AKA Gen X-er.”

“If you (Michelle) don’t see the connections, then that says oodles about you.”

These are all thinly veiled patronizing insults which imply that you are brilliant in your insight and the rest of us are morons. You also imply that your information is “real value” as opposed to what Garth writes and that he is a hypocrite. Then you have the gall to say “I have not aimed to offend anyone or waste anyone’s time.”

This Mr. Disciple, is hostility and arrogance. Usually the signs of a failed narcissist.

If you really meant it about wanting to educate and enlighten people, then you would start your own blog instead of baiting people on this one. Put your money where your mouth is.

#262 Jon B on 08.04.11 at 1:41 am

Well put GT. But don’t forget, you once called me the greatest fool of all. I’m going to let that slide.

#263 Robert Dudek on 08.04.11 at 1:59 am

So I can insult whole groups of people? Cool!

#264 wendy on 08.04.11 at 3:05 am

blah blah blah tell me about small caps didn’t you say we should dump into those about six months ago? they are going into the crapper fast than I can say told you so. What are are our alternatives?

Wasn’t me who told you to buy small caps, although the Russell 2000 index (and teh Cdn ETF equivalent) should be part of most balanced portfolios – in moderation. — Garth

#265 Sky on 08.04.11 at 9:44 am

@ Michelle :

I knew the Canadian medical system was in rotten shape but I didn’t realize that it had sunk to the level of offering unsolicited psychological evaluations on the internet. And your psychological diagnosis … of somebody you have never even met… comes as a result of cherry picking quotes that fit your profiling.

You call this behavior professional? I can’t think of anything more UNprofessional. I know everybody wants to be Dr. Phil but if you really do have a medical degree… then shame on you .

Marcus Welby MD, where are you ?

#266 Daisy Mae on 08.04.11 at 9:50 am

45north on 08.03.11 at 9:02 pm “while others have been distracted by the US debt crisis, garbage bags with ties have been removed from the shelves replaced with “easy tie” and “new tie” which are just plastic bags with flaps on them

you can still buy twist ties in rolls and tie them on yourself!

Thank you. We needed that. — Garth”

**************************

Hilarious! LOL

#267 Michelle on 08.04.11 at 10:15 am

@ #266- Sky

I was careful to comment on the behaviour only, not the person. If that person doesn’t want to be associated with that behaviour then they should stop doing it.

#268 disciple on 08.04.11 at 10:58 am

Michelle wrote…”These are all thinly veiled patronizing insults which imply that you are brilliant in your insight and the rest of us are morons. You also imply that your information is “real value” as opposed to what Garth writes and that he is a hypocrite.” –

I’ve implied nothing of the sort. How in God’s name do you arrive at this conclusion? I wasn’t referring to G-man, but some of the commenters (not naming names).

Your total misread is quite enlightening actually. You may represent a good junk of society that makes a living from concealing important information from others by invoking such straw man attacks as displayed above. The universities and professions are chock full of such people. Could it be that what annoys you is that there is much self-educated truth in what I write, and that I actually have thoughts of my own? I’m not trying to convince you of anything. Read and understand, or not. Agree or disagree, but there should be room for everyone in a civil manner. Telling someone to go away betrays a lack of courage and tenderness. I beg you to spare me the indignity of having to respond to your unfounded accusations a third time. Instead, why not offer something more?

#269 disciple on 08.04.11 at 11:13 am

I have 4 kids and a large extended family and hope for the future and only pleasant memories and sparkling conversations ahead with all of them. So, yes, I do indeed mean it about wanting to enlighten and educate people. I think I posted that many months ago, and you still have that in your mind? Incredible…have you been trolling me that long? What are you so afraid of that you took this opportunity to stuff me in with the other perceived crazies? (Rhetorical question, as the answer is that you are afraid of yourself).

Anyways, a big hug goes out to all of you out there who support me. You know who you are. Thanks – disciple.

#270 brett on 08.04.11 at 11:35 am

the hatred of all things Gold and gold related, and the hatred for warnings of doom, is an indicator of the publics head in the sand, and this Blog attracts a type with more awareness then the general public, so its easy to discern just from this phenomenon that Gold is a smart bet and higher unemployment and breadlines are coming.

Gold stock on sale again this morning, you can cheaply buy the best performing asset for 2nd half 2011, now!

#271 Alex B on 08.04.11 at 12:13 pm

Hey Garth! love the column, honestly why aren’t you running some advertising on this site? Nobody would consider you tainted or a sellout pushing advice just to make revenue. You give out tons of investment advice for free, any investment advice is something you should do your own research anyways. Lay down some sweet ads for Canadian tire or something you like, we might even click on it, but we sure won’t call you a sellout or stop coming to this site! keep up the good work!

#272 Linda on 08.04.11 at 4:12 pm

I am grateful to you for this blog. Finding it online by sheer luck last fall saved us from buying a house here in Ottawa.