The unloved

For the past 250 days it has sat looking at the distant mountains. Its gleaming hardwood floors never walked on, save by realtors during showings. Its stone countertops never feeling the press of a tomato’s firm roundness. Its glass and slate patios disturbingly empty. Its beams and flourishes so far uncoveted by a perfectionist owner.

Unlived in, unloved, this west coast masterpiece has sat since the day construction finished almost a year ago, in mute testimony to what happens when a housing market goes south. It’s now back on the market, 2,500 square feet of luxury on 16,000 feet of landscaped perfection, for $50,000 less than before. If it were in Vancouver, it would sell for $3.5 million. In prestigious Nanoose Bay, on Vancouver Island, it’s now $838,000.

In fact, this area is one of the barometers of Canadian real estate. The demographics and income levels are similar to Oakville in southern Ontario, but with a higher number of wealthy retirees. In recent years builders have put up more and more high-end houses, excessively finished and architecturally unique, often clustered around exclusive golf or yacht clubs.

And prices have continuously arched higher. Until about the time 2307 Bonnington Drive was finished.

The waterfront communities of Parksville and Qualicum Beach on the Island’s east coast have only 20,000 residents. But, incredibly, there are currently 122 houses for sale between $500,000 and $1 million, and every week the inventory grows a little larger. Every week sellers get a little more desperate. And every week on Bonnington Drive, the market value of a minor masterpiece erodes.

Where are the buyers here, or in southwestern Ontario, Halifax, Kelowna or Airdrie? In reality, the Canadian real estate market is already correcting, hit by price fatigue, swelling debt and a swampy economy. Strip out the fanaticism of Vancouver or the irrationality of condo-crazy Toronto, and the picture is one of languishing listings. And that should surprise nobody.

On the Island, for example, people are awaking to the fact cash-heavy Boomers from Mississauga or Calgary will not be coming to buy if they can’t sell their digs back home. In fact, it’s not even different here! A study by the Victoria Real Estate Board found that 70% of all properties sold last year went to locals – only 15% were from other parts of the country, and a minuscule 3% went to those fancy rich international buyers.

Why does this market matter to the rest of the country?

Because it’s a harbinger. It shows us what happens when people start believing their own crap – that local real estate has intrinsic value because everyone else wants to move there. This, of course, is what powers the delusional Vancouver market, why average prices in boring Calgary actually topped those of Toronto (which has a diversified economy), and why people in Leaside will pay $1.2 million for a lot too small to park on.

The average SFH price in Victoria is $630,000. There is no economy to speak of. In Vancouver it’s $1.2 million, where incomes have flatlined. In 416, the average detached is now almost $800,000, and the city’s mushrooming debt means a tax rush.

This is one reason housing is disintegrating from the edges. It’s simply, purely and unmistakeably unaffordable. Even with emergency interest rates which, of course, have only one direction in which to travel. And were it not for oceans of cheap credit, real estate would cost far less than it currently does. Property values and mortgage debt have risen with an equal velocity, which means national real estate net worth has barely budged.

Worse, when prices fall – as has started in places like Nanoose – the debt remains. It’s a lesson millions of unsuspecting middle class Americans have been gobsmacked with. Today one family in every four owning a home in the States is underwater – owing more than they own, and not because they borrowed excessively. Certainly not by whimsical Canadian standards.

At some point the McBoomer mansion on Bonnington will find a buyer. Let’s hope they love it.

It could be a museum, housing expectations circa 2010.

199 comments ↓

#1 b on 07.10.11 at 9:34 pm

first, yes, about time

#2 McSteve on 07.10.11 at 9:35 pm

Is that Bruno Gerussi?

#3 Mr Last from Planet UpsideDown you are turned around on 07.10.11 at 9:37 pm

In a galaxy, far far away from the firster :))

#4 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.10.11 at 9:38 pm

If a house is listed in the forest and nobody buys it, does it make a sound?

#5 Tim on 07.10.11 at 9:39 pm

I’m convinced the market will tank, but I doubt Qualicum and Parksville will go much lower. They are primarily retirement towns, beautiful towns with great weather. I think the Victoria Real Estate numbers are a load of crap. Having family members in Parksville, most of there friends are from the prairies or Vancouver. There are probably a lot more than 15% coming from off the island. You can buy a starter home in Parksville in the low $300K. I can’t see it going much lower their. Vancouver is quite the opposite

#6 nonplused on 07.10.11 at 9:40 pm

Well, until those “emergency rates” finally do start to go up, real estates seems stable enough even if sales are way down. And it seems like Canadian consumers just can’t turn down free money, so debt levels will continue to rise. Until one day. But it doesn’t look like that day will be today or any time soon. Maybe the end of 2012, but even that doesn’t appear likely.

#7 Government Dude on 07.10.11 at 9:41 pm

I gotta have that house!
I gotta have it!
I’m all emotional!
Need it!!!!!
I love it!

#8 Lisa on 07.10.11 at 9:41 pm

Yes, we here in Canada are so poised…our housing market must be the laughing stock of the world by now.

#9 Hoof - Hearted on 07.10.11 at 9:44 pm

11111rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrssszZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZt !!!

#10 Ben Rabidoux on 07.10.11 at 9:44 pm

Good stuff, Garth. The reality is that in some cities, supply is starting to overwhelm demand. This is a ‘micro’ factor that drives specific real estate markets. The fact that many are already slowing is a bad sign.

But just wait until credit demand/availability declines….then the fireworks will begin. People would be wise to understand that this is the macro factor that underpins the real estate market at present. And its days are numbered…

http://www.theeconomicanalyst.com/content/revisiting-most-important-graph-understanding-canadian-real-estate-market

#11 squidly77 on 07.10.11 at 9:49 pm

Australias housing bubble implodes – realtors refuse to report prices – only one western world housing bubble remains – Canada

#12 'kin loving it on 07.10.11 at 9:53 pm

Garth, the tides are turning here in Calgary, a number of non believers are starting to pay attention to what’s going on with the burst. It’s here baby. By another server traffic is going up.

On a side note it will be interesting to see what the lucky winner fo the foothills lottery home ends up getting for having the lucky ticket?

I’m calling $775k

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10897040&PidKey=-698472588

#13 The Original Dave on 07.10.11 at 10:02 pm

earlier today, I was thinking back to my parents and people their age when they were working (25 years ago). It is so strange. Many of those people at the time had only 1 income earner in the household. A lot of them worked 5 days a week. They managed to save money, provide for their families, and go on vacation when they had to.

Today in Canada, things are nuts. Living here in Toronto, someone earning $80,000 should be a good wage. I think a houseless, newlywed, sole bread-winner, would really struggle if that $80,000 was the only family income.

Something has to give. The cost of living is way too much. Where’s the downside to this continuous cost of living rise? Who or what are we to blame for all this? My personal opinion is that credit expansion is responsible for all of this. The expansion of credit has allowed for more consumption by all which has pushed up prices of everything across the board. Society (or maybe it’s just Toronto) really needs a credit contraction which would improve the cost of living.

That’s my opinion/rant. I think that’s the biggest problem in Toronto

#14 Jsan on 07.10.11 at 10:03 pm

Another ugly side to a housing meltdown. All of those people who bought their spec condos. What do you think happens when there are fewer and fewer people left to pay the association (condo) fees?

“Neighbor vs. neighbor as homeowner fights get ugly”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Neighbor-vs-neighbor-as-apf-2524543580.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

.

#15 The Original Dave on 07.10.11 at 10:09 pm

another rant….

a lot of people speculate about where house prices will be after the downturn. I remember in 2003, prices of homes in Toronto were already in an uptrend of about 4 years. Normally, we could expect that after that little run, prices would correct a little bit. Obviously, many things happened with interest rates, lending standards etc. and a few years later we started doing 0 down 40 year mortgages. Prices exploded in the mid 2000’s.

Considering the above, it’s safe to say that prices should retract to 2005 levels. One can also argue that the run up to 2003 prices needed a correction which never happened, so we could see prices below those 2003 levels. This isn’t wishful thinking, just the dynamics of a bull market turned bubble.

No matter how high prices go, I look at 2005 as the year housing became a full blown mania. Prices should retract to those levels at least…I’m thinking more.

#16 Sp on 07.10.11 at 10:13 pm

Garth,
I think that you should just get to the point. I got aroused as soon as I hit “tomato’s firm roundness”, and needed to regroup my thoughts.

#17 Waiting in Chilliwack on 07.10.11 at 10:15 pm

Chilliwack realtor/builders keep pushing the envelope, and I keep wondering who’s buying into these overpriced homes.Backs the river , no view but plenty of mosquitos.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10895114&PidKey=-1769558068

#18 Van Isle Renter on 07.10.11 at 10:17 pm

I live on the Island. Moved here two years ago. No interest in buying a house. Renting and loving it! Prices are dropping, so why should I buy? Until I see a major re-trenchment in prices (30%+) I’m not even remotely interested. I was a homeowner for 20+ years. Glad to be rid of it.

Spend my time golfing and sipping cappuccino’s while the landlord worries about the property taxes, the hot water tank and the roof. And I’m OK with that.

#19 Charles Ponzi on 07.10.11 at 10:22 pm

Only three bathrooms??? Obviously unsuitable for a family of four. I guess I will have to keep looking.

#20 blase on 07.10.11 at 10:22 pm

Original Dave-interesting point.

I grew up in the 80s in Calgary. We didn’t have a microwave or VCR until junior high school. No cell phones or video games. No home computer. One car always. Man, how times have changed! And I would definitely say, people have more stuff to do now, but people are definitely more up and down emotionally. Our brains are exposed to far too much these days, especially Internet news/porn/”reality” crap. No wonder everyone needs drugs these days.

#21 Min in Mission on 07.10.11 at 10:30 pm

Thanks for the memories. 12 to 15 years ago, I worked building some of those houses in Fairwinds. I thought that they were way over-priced back then. Now, I can’t imagine why someone would pay that much for a house in that area.

I moved from the Island and bought a house in the Valley. Purchased about 6 years ago, house price was about 2.5 times our income. We could have purchased one of the “gotta have/granite/stainless” monster houses, but, we wanted a home. Not an “investment”.

#22 wetcoaster on 07.10.11 at 10:31 pm

The coming Victoria real estate crash couldn’t happen soon enough. It will lessen the ridiculous greed amongst landlords who are gouging $1800-2400 for just a main floor of an outdated house in a less than desirable area. They are making more than just covering the mortgage cause fools keep paying these prices.

Not to mention their sleazy advertising games saying “house for rent” which never mentions the tennant in the basement til you see the “shared laundry” slipped in. The fallout from these wannabe landords will only deepen the pain in ole V-Town.

#23 Slowlearner on 07.10.11 at 10:35 pm

Here on the south part of the island things are similar. A place down the street has been on the market a year. Average house with a spectacular waterfront location. Started at 1.8m, down to 1.3m last I checked, and not a nibble. I do notice homes that are priced correctly – owners who understand the market is declining – sell within a few weeks. The ones that try to set new high marks sit empty month after month.

Hey Vancouver, your next.

#24 Hoof - Hearted on 07.10.11 at 10:36 pm

#214 eaglebay (From last topic)

No…point is….what is going on?

Establish inventory…then what ?

Why bother…

Forestry has supply /demand mechanisms.

#25 The InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 07.10.11 at 10:41 pm

Original Dave at number 13 wants a credit contraction.

Dave, I agree that would lower the cost of living.

Basically in that scenario as long as you kept your job you would “win”. Prices would be lower. But your salary would not likely be cut. If we got negative inflation you would not likely see raises but anyhow yes you would come out ahead.

But the economy would shrink and there would be a lot of job losses. Anyone who lost their job would “lose” big in this scenario. Jobs would be hard to come by.

Even those who kept their jobs would find that the boss now had the upper hand. Employees would be leery to challenge the boss in any way, lest they be fired in the middle of a recession.

In the end, a credit contraction would not be a pleasant experience for many.

Of course retirees would win big time. Fixed incomes would stretch further as prices dropped. A credit contraction also implies higher borrowing costs and higher rates available on bank deposits. Geyser’s unite and vote for a depression, now!

But Dave do you really think your parents had it so good 25 years ago in 1986? The 1970’s saw frightful inflation. The early 80’s saw a deep recession. In Western Canada in 1986 houses were just bottoming out from a huge crash caused by the National Energy Program. I think people were working pretty hard back then and were pining for the good old 1950’s.

In my opinion, life has never been easier for most Canadians than it is in 2011. Witness a lot of us with time on our hand to debate such matters on this blog.

Life is grand, but it is not fair, get on with it.

#26 Dan in Victoria on 07.10.11 at 10:47 pm

Gee Garth, I was up that way today looking around too bad, could have given a blow by blow report of the joint.
Things are definately starting to turn, there is no doubt about it.
Went to a few open houses today, talked to a few sellers, oh yeah lots of interest things are good….blah blah blah.
I think you are over priced I said to one fellow.
Got the down the nose look, well if you can’t afford it…
Had a good chuckle.
How long you been building I asked?
12 years he replied.
Your about to get the rest of your lesson I said.

#27 cool on 07.10.11 at 10:48 pm

Calgary is not boring…..at least not as much as Toronto

#28 debtified on 07.10.11 at 10:48 pm

Garth says: “Unlived in, unloved, this west coast masterpiece has sat since the day construction finished almost a year ago, in mute testimony to what happens when a housing market goes south.”

***********************************************

Garth, that’s nothing compared to Fort McMurray. There are condos here that are “unlived in and unloved” for over two years!

Rent has gone down up to 30% ($2.7K -> $1.9K). Rent is almost 50% of cost-of-ownership.

All homeowners are all wishing for the next boom to happen before their “5-year” plan is up. Otherwise, they might have to extend their stay indefinitely (or go “home” broke).

I just say to them that Ft.Mc. is not a bad place to retire in. Seriously…

#29 Crash Callaway on 07.10.11 at 10:49 pm

In 5 yrs the majority of suckers will have to form food investor groups.
Where ten or more foreclosed families will have to pool all their money together just to make the down payment on a package of hot dogs.

The ultimate credit expansion!

#30 Hoof - Hearted on 07.10.11 at 10:49 pm

Vancouver Island?

I say sell it to offshore interests.

Maybe become Guatonomo Bay for retarded/retired(what’s difference?) British Imperialists.

They want it both ways….Ferries…but no bridge…politically Bi -sexual.

It has no use to BC….it’s like a spent prophylactic.

#31 Utopia on 07.10.11 at 10:49 pm

To Daisy Mae from the other day: Unfortunately there is no Mrs. Utopia canning my tomatoes for the pasta sauces I have planned…..I am working on it. In the meanwhile, the garden gets love and attention. My peppers all went into full bloom after the last rain. I sense a good crop on the way.

#167 Devils Advocate: Good to hear from you again Devil. Thanks for the original transcript of Benny Tal’s article. It actually made more sense than the condensed version I first read. What is your take on the Kelowna market now? Not bugging you or anything. Is it really as bad as it sounds there? Funny enough, I almost bought a highrise condo on Harvey 6 or 7 years back for a retreat. A real bargain at 70k+. Kicking myself for that one. Who really knew then how high prices would go.

#212 AG Sage. Don’t be so jealous! HaHaHa. Now that is lame.

#196 Eaglebay: Thanks. I signed up for the newsletter on that site. Looking forward to it.

To Alissa: Sorry we did not hear from you after all that. Some of the Dawgs were perhaps in a bit of a ferocious mood over reading your story. Do not be scared. Their bark is worse than their bite. So what are you going to do?

#10 Ben Rabideaux: Thanks for the links. Loved the article by the way and references to credit contracting. I am curious about that chart you queried too. It looks to be pretty damning of the future of housing if there is anything to it. Backup Stats would explain a lot.

#32 In Van on 07.10.11 at 11:00 pm

In the right part of Vancouver it would get more than 3.5 mil; after all, here’s a comparator (a gem built in only 1929 with “potential for expansion”)

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10884821&PidKey=1852016633

Vancouver real estate is crazy crazy crazy. Can people really think of nothing better to do with millions of dollars than buy these very ordinary (indeed run down) houses? When this crashes (and it will), there will be some very sad people sitting in their tired old houses and wondering how they are going to retire. It is not possible for the vast majority of people to save properly (or at all) for retirement and still buy at these prices.

#33 Golden Stu on 07.10.11 at 11:07 pm

From “Grow up” post….

#191 – Hoof Hearted, good god man, normally I like reading your posts but the mention of “abiotic oil theory” just needed a reply! Even George Bush does not believe that, or even understand what it means! Its a crack pot theory “cooked up” to make people believe its business as usual and we can continue burning oil and gas the way we do now. Almost every major oil field in the world is in production decline.

….did you know?

1. We use about 6 barrels of oil for every one we find.
2. The peak of oil discovery was as long ago as 1965.
3. There were a few more big discovery years in the 1970s, but there have been virtually none since then. The only recent ones were in Brazil a year or so ago.
4. The last year in which the World discovered more oil than we consumed was nearly 30 years ago.
5. The biggest oilfields in the World were discovered more than half a century ago, either side of the Second World War.

#202 – BrianT, exactly….. I ran my own engineering firm for 20 years, designing and drilling oil and gas wells around the world. No one in their right mind would want to drill in the water depths in the gulf of mexico if there was any other choice…..

…. anyway, sorry for the rant, this isnt the theoildrum.com, we can get back to the housing doom now :-)

#34 Stevie Why ?? on 07.10.11 at 11:12 pm

What a Sunday afternoon BBQ…..

– A Mountain of PICKERAL ( sorry America a pickeral is a pickeral and a walleye is for those south of the 49th )

– A HUGE slab of Beef Tenderloin ( medium rare of course )

– And an ever sooooooo SWEET Spiral Ham

– And beverages galore courtesy of the USA ….. canned beer at 26 bucks for a 24 of Kokanee and pina colada “fixings” @ half what I would pay locally…

– PLUS 30 weather with bright blue skies

SUCK IT UP BUTTERCUP….. Renting isn’t for everyone … but … it sure works for me ….

#35 Snowboid on 07.10.11 at 11:13 pm

We set a goal of getting off Fantasy Island for several reasons, but the prominent one was the pending crash in real estate values.

We purposely set a reasonable asking price, so we wouldn’t languish on the market (for over 400 days as one of neighbours and they still haven’t sold). We sold in 10 days.

I think Victoria is in for some tough times, as is Kelowna and Vancouver – hence the decision to rent instead of buy for at least a year.

The other issue affecting values is the ongoing leaky condo crisis in BC. Although it is intentionally hushed up these days, buildings are still showing up with problems – as the local news in Kelowna reported a week or so back.

This often sees condo owners being assessed $ 50,000 or more for the envelope repairs (plus sitting behind screens for a year or so).

It just adds to the disappearing equity problem as values drop.

#36 Sumadartson jr. on 07.10.11 at 11:15 pm

BPOE, plus a few old timers on this blog, had predicted all of Canada was prone to RE price drops, except for Vancouver.

#37 no guts on 07.10.11 at 11:16 pm

That really is a beautiful house. I have played their spectacular golf course and the whole area is beautiful as well. However, unlike everyone else in Canada, I wouldn’t want to have to live there.

#38 Sumadartson jr. on 07.10.11 at 11:16 pm

and #33rd!!! too

#39 Utopia on 07.10.11 at 11:16 pm

#20 Blase wrote……

“Our brains are exposed to far too much these days…No wonder everyone needs drugs…”
—————————————————-

My lifestyle won’t work for most. Try this though.

Take all your electronics, gadgets, devices and miscellaneous equipment that runs on electricity and throw it all in the dumpster.

Seriously. Just throw it all away. Cut the phone connection, dismember the TV, stomp on the cellphone and the plan and put the printer, fax, game console and digital whatsit into a muddy hole in the backyard.

It is cathartic. Frees your mind completely.

No more calls to answer, no more faxes to respond too, no sales pitches lurking on the end of every connection and no need to keep up with technology anymore.

It saves a bundle too.

I limit myself to a laptop, a radio and now a pay-go phone but only my Mother and a few friends get the number. I just kicked all that other crap out of my life a decade back and have never really missed any of it since.

Seriously. Try it. You will be amazed that your brain starts to work on it’s own again once you stop the media pollution and advertising from getting in.

On another thought, maybe this is why there is no Mrs. Utopia…..

#40 Bottoms_Up on 07.10.11 at 11:34 pm

Sorry, I did get my facts wrong:

“Venezuela has non-conventional oil deposits (extra-heavy crude oil, bitumen and tar sands) approximately equal to the world’s reserves of conventional oil.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela#Petroleum_and_other_resources

And my point about oil forming over millions of years was alluding to the fact that if one contemplates the mass of living organisms/plants etc. that have existed over this vast length of time (a length of which we can’t even comprehend), there is likely enough oil present in the Earth’s crust to last centuries.

#41 Future Expatriate on 07.10.11 at 11:49 pm

Still too much. Can get that place in Vegas for $350,000. Chop off another $100,000 if you can find one in a short sale or foreclosure (and there are thousands.)

Oh. No snow and rain less than 30 days a year.

Furthermore, 2500 square feet is NO McMansion. Used to be mid-sized for houses in the good old days when apartments were rental apartments and condos didn’t exist and townhouses were century-old tenement brownstones.

McMansion size doesn’t even start until 4000 square feet.

#42 March of the Pigs on 07.10.11 at 11:55 pm

brutal HDR, for almost a million you’d think they could afford to rent some furniture for the photo shoot…

#43 JSS on 07.10.11 at 11:57 pm

#27.

No, Calgary is boring. Really boring.

#44 Snowman on 07.11.11 at 12:03 am

“Spend my time golfing and sipping cappuccino’s while the landlord worries about the property taxes, the hot water tank and the roof.”

LMAO … how naive. You really think your landlord loses any sleep over your hot water tank or the roof?
No doubt he’ll fix the HWT only in a week or two or three, meanwhile you’ll have to shower at the gym (if they let you) as for washing dishes, well I have the feeling that before all is fixed, you’ll be sipping quite a bit of that cappuccino. Same goes with the roof, you’ll have to move your belongings around to a dry spot until he cares to fix the roof.
Looks to me like, after 20+ years of homeowneship you kinda lost contact with reality, that in case there was any contact before.

#45 InvestX on 07.11.11 at 12:03 am

“A study by the Victoria Real Estate Board found that 70% of all properties sold last year went to locals – only 15% were from other parts of the country, and a minuscule 3% went to those fancy rich international buyers.”

Refreshing to finally see some stats about the “Asian buyers” to support or dispel the myth.

#46 Future Expatriate on 07.11.11 at 12:03 am

Oh. The floor and ceiling moldings need to be larger. They don’t quite meet in the middle of the wall. They also need to stick out at least 6 inches into the room instead of the one inch they do, cleaning up the dust catching moldings is a fun pastime for out-of-work homeowners. Cedar paneling on the walls would have been nice, to make floors, ceilings, and walls all wood, painted white like the ruined ceilings and beams of course.

And nothing screams “West Coast” like quasi Victorian lighting fixtures imitating 1890 from the Home Depot.

That is the ugliest floor anyone could have found. What happened to the days when hardwood floors meant 1930 hovels and people couldn’t even afford wall to wall carpet except the rich? Wood is for ceilings, not floors. And never painted.

I could go on, but why bother? I’ve probably sold the place for them already.

Whoever is designing these places is on LSD. We’ve come to the point that everything beautiful had been done, so the only way to not look “dated” is some hideous eclectic nightmare from the ugliest periods in history, all vomited together in a pile designed to make little women whose idea of luxury was Mr. Sheffield’s New York townhouse from “The Nanny” smile in recognition. Never once realizing it was meant to be garish, over-the-top, demented and as sickening in its own vile way as Fran Drescher’s wardrobe.

Now, to reruns of “The Brady Bunch” and REAL architectural class.

#47 March of the Pigs on 07.11.11 at 12:04 am

In case you have $15,000 kicking around and wanted a little get away from the everyday… No guarantees on the weather but privacy is pretty good. What would that house run you in Vancouver again?
http://www.realestategander.com/real-estate-listings.asp?listing_id={C9047823-549A-4A58-932F-DCC31565E38D}

#48 Mr. Reality on 07.11.11 at 12:07 am

With China having issues and the Euro debt crisis picking up steam. The perfect storm for Canada has begun.

Get your money into safe investments and throw a bunch into shorting the S&P 500 and the TSX.

Making money on the way down is always an enjoyable ride!

Mr. R.

#49 Aussie Roy on 07.11.11 at 12:19 am

Aussie Update

A Sunday Age investigation has found that 27 per cent of all auction results published by the industry body in June were missing critical information – including the sale price, passed-in price or the reserve. Many auctions were not reported at all, distorting clearance rates that are used by buyers and sellers to gauge market strength.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/agents-withhold-house-price-data-20110709-1h859.html#ixzz1RlmPcTPD

MELBOURNE’S property market is likely to remain in the doldrums for the next 10 years.
The bleak outlook comes from a group of the country’s leading economists who warn the city’s bricks and mortar are fundamentally overvalued.

The good news for homeowners is that AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver and Grattan Institute program director Saul Eslake – the ANZ’s chief number cruncher for close to 14 years – say Victoria will avoid a US-style property crash which saw prices plunge by 30 per cent.

Instead, house prices will continue their single-digit slide into 2012 before stagnating for five to 10 years as wages catch up with a median house price which has climbed 133 per cent since 2000.

LOL

http://www.news.com.au/money/property/decade-of-house-pain-predicted-for-melbourne/story-e6frfmd0-1226091470380#ixzz1RlmeeaQf

The cash registers are falling silent. Look beyond Australia’s mining boom and you will see all the hallmarks of a struggling nation. Shane Green reports.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/the-pain-of-the-hidden-recession-20110708-1h6st.html#ixzz1RlmsMS00

Weekend auction clearance rates, Brisbane rates still falling.

http://www.myrp.com.au/showNews.do?id=481

This link already posted above
Mish – Aussie M$M claims “permanently high plateau”
Good luck with that.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/07/permanently-high-plateau-theory-touted.html

#50 March of the Pigs on 07.11.11 at 12:20 am

http://tinyurl.com/6zqmgk5

Last link doesn’t work, thought the blog dogs might be interested in seeing just how divided our country really is when it come to real estate

#51 Future Expatriate on 07.11.11 at 12:26 am

Here’s one almost twice the square footage, five minutes from town and not way up island past Nanaimo, in a much better neighborhood, and it’s not all backwards. Oh, if you want, (and the new owners probably will) rip out the carpets, put in cheap laminate “wood” floors, and paint the ceilings and beams white like everyone else who’s nuts in the neighborhood. Cover up the gorgeous rock fireplace wall with wallboard and throw a handful of marble tiles around it. And replace all the lighting features with Victorian crap from China.
Did I mention the pool?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10826938&PidKey=-68650268

Looks like another Mike Nixon masterpiece ready to be “updated” and ruined by a new owner.

Thank God flippers went the way of the dinosaur.

#52 March of the Pigs on 07.11.11 at 12:27 am

so when do we give up living in houses and just start trading them like stocks?

#53 Junius on 07.11.11 at 12:55 am

Good post from Mish Shedlock on “new permanent highs” like the ones people like BPOE believe in.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/07/permanently-high-plateau-theory-touted.html

#54 SophieZombie on 07.11.11 at 12:56 am

Qualicum Beach is having an amazing demographic: in 2006, 51.6% of the population was 60 year old +. It is one, if not the oldest town in Canada. The closest health center offering specialized or emergency care is in Nanaimo, 39 km South. The bus system is not very fast or frequent, so most elders living in that community will drive, until they have a stroke, hip fracture etc. Most of them will have to relocate around Nanaimo or Victoria as soon as they need specialized heath care. Even as a retirement home, do Qualicum Beach really makes sense as a long term plan of more than 5 years ? Especially with McMansion with stairs with all the bedrooms and full bathrooms on the 2nd or 3rd floor ?
Parksville: the city in Canada with one of the highest ownership rate: 76.6% (2006 census). Unemployment rate was 8%. Since most buyers are islanders, who is going to buy ? … and they are still building !

#55 [email protected] on 07.11.11 at 1:00 am

#9 Hoof – Hearted on 07.10.11 at 9:44 pm

11111rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrssszZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZt !!!
*******************************************
will you ever give-up?

#56 Timing is Everything on 07.11.11 at 1:05 am

Canada ‘Migrants-R-Us’…

“Whenever Alberta is booming and we’re not, which is the case right now, our unemployment rate starts to drop because we export our unemployed to other provinces.”

http://tinyurl.com/5rd2d4h

#57 TaxHaven on 07.11.11 at 1:23 am

That place doesn’t even give a NOD of recognition to its surroundings.

One would think that homeowners would WANT to live in a sublime climate, surrounded by greenery – even hollybushes & arbutus trees – and a stone’s throw from all kinds of outdoor recreation and the ocean…

…and then this house does its level best to insulate the inhabitants from outdoor reality in every way possible: glass and steel, faux tile & marble, electric bathrooms and hot tubs. Hardly a scrap of wood. NOTHING local. Windows probably don’t even open…

Conspicuous consumption died in 2007, didn’t it?

#58 Aussie Roy on 07.11.11 at 1:33 am

Aussie Update

Australia’s biggest banks may lose about A$7 billion ($7.5 billion) from a 30 percent drop in home prices and a 9 percent default rate, Deutsche Bank AG said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-11/australian-homes-may-cost-banks-7-5-billion-in-a-year-deustche-bank-says.html

One of the strongest banking sectors in the world, dont make me laugh…

#59 dosouth on 07.11.11 at 1:35 am

Thanks to the BC Assessment authority we can look up the current assessed values and your Nanoose property didn’t show completely finished but;… there will probably be a few more reductions… doyathink

2307 BONNINGTON DR NANOOSE BAY $580,000 Non-Manualized Structures 04-769-09105143 Building Unfinished

#60 Josh L on 07.11.11 at 1:35 am

#25,
just because a credit contraction would be painful does not mean it isn’t necessary medicine. People enjoyed the high life due to expansion and now it’s time to pay the piper. Just like the government encouraging people to keep spending to support the economy in the recession … Conveniently ignoring the fact that this just fuels the debt problem. If a job is created merely due to expanding credit, then it was unsustainable to begin with. The sooner we take the medicine the less the pain will be in the end. Of course for some reason, like a sick child, we still try to avoid it.

#61 eva on 07.11.11 at 1:52 am

I sat next to a realtor at friends bbq in Kitsilano, Vancouver ealier this evening…she was saying she must leave early as she had to show a condo…she specialized in condos on the westside. I said, “oh you must be a little down since the market has slowed down”…She turned with an insulted look in her face, and proceeded to tell me sales are booming once again! I asked what type of people are buying in this insane market! She said young up and coming couples, average mortgage payments of $6k a month is most common…I nearly choked on my food. I said they could rent the condos of under $3k a month, why pay double to purchase. She replied, “but why pay the landlords mortgage when they can afford their own”…makes lots of sense to me…pay double to own. I gasped…and said it is scary, what happens when the prices drop…she was very upset with me, and said prices never drop…they only go up…these people are building equity. I smiled and said, yea…I remember 1982…we lost our equity along with many other people, took many years to come back. Although, I must admit I have been a little skeptical lately that maybe we have all been wrong…but after speaking with her now believe more than ever as Garth said “this cannot end well” Unbelievable in Vancouver.

#62 dosouth on 07.11.11 at 1:58 am

Tim #5 – Not sure what price range you are looking in but we are looking from Qualicum to Nanaimo and these are some of the listings that might surprise you – Price reduced-
http://tinyurl.com/627rmls
http://tinyurl.com/6xphrbr
http://tinyurl.com/6bgfp35
http://tinyurl.com/673qftr
http://tinyurl.com/5u2d4z9
http://tinyurl.com/6lf7zqk
http://tinyurl.com/5w9xdyl
http://tinyurl.com/5r5rrrr ($98k below TAXED assessed value)

Renting’s looking awesome and believe me we have done our homework. Your family is in for a bit of a surprise me thinks.

#63 old phart on 07.11.11 at 2:06 am

From the sublime to the ridiculous in Alberta

http://edmonton.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-houses-for-sale-Looking-for-Owner-who-will-Finance-The-max-is-230-000-W0QQAdIdZ296882937

#64 Goldenrod on 07.11.11 at 2:13 am

Good lord, wetcoaster #22, stop whining.
It’s not “greed” that sets rents, it’s the market.
If you’re not happy paying the going rate, buy your own house or move to Podunk, SK.
Or learn some negotiating skills and get a couple hundy knocked off for signing a one-year lease.
And since you’re already figured out tha ‘shared laundry’ means you don’t get the whole house, what are you crying about?
Sincerely,
Fellow Victoria renter.

#65 chris on 07.11.11 at 2:25 am

Garth is so right about people in Vancouver thinking that the whole world wants to move here and therefore price are only begining to rise and will do so forever.
A Vancouver home owner i recently met ( a nice 48 year old tradesman ) said to me that even though his little shack is now worth 1 million or so, it would not be long beore it goes to 3 million or higher as time goes by.
I looked at him in utter disbelieve when he said, this is the most beautiful city in the world where you can ski one moment and boat 30 minutes later in the pacific ocean.
That is pretty much how everyone things here. :)
Now i know that Vancouver is noy say Stockholm Sweden but check out his 3 bathroom villa on a huge lot of 77 acre ( thats 77 acres ) a view
for a mere $239,,usd,,,it absolutelly blows the mind how much homes cost here in this native land of ours. Good greef!
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Stockholm_ME_04783_M38259-87453

#66 Aussie Roy on 07.11.11 at 3:40 am

Aussie Update

So are we Arthur or Martha?.

Interesting to note that paying down debt is deemed to be saving. Two completely different things you say, I agree but the masters of spin say no, debt reduction is like saving. WTF, thats like saying possums are squirrels.

http://www.watoday.com.au/business/are-we-squirrelling-away-too-much-20110709-1h7zl.html

Some are still off to the bank for some debt, another fix but all is ok as its debt for the safest asset known to man, housing – LOL…

http://www.theage.com.au/business/home-loan-rise-signals-recovery-20110711-1h9rz.html

Ah, the housing shortage will put a floor under prices and make rents sky-rocket, another great piece of fiction as prices fall and rents stall..

http://www.theage.com.au/business/rent-growth-stalls-in-capital-cities-20110711-1ha53.html

#67 Robert Dudek on 07.11.11 at 3:49 am

The expansion of credit has allowed for more consumption by all which has pushed up prices of everything across the board. Society (or maybe it’s just Toronto) really needs a credit contraction which would improve the cost of living.

That’s my opinion/rant. I think that’s the biggest problem in Toronto

We are in a trap.

You welcome a credit contraction? Well you have one thing right: cost of living will stop being the biggest problem – replaced by massive unemployment.

#68 Deliverator on 07.11.11 at 4:44 am

In fact, it’s not even different here! A study by the Victoria Real Estate Board found that 70% of all properties sold last year went to locals – only 15% were from other parts of the country, and a minuscule 3% went to those fancy rich international buyers.

That adds up to 88%, inclusive of locals, Canadian non-locals, and internationals. What is/are the other category/ies?

#69 Ben on 07.11.11 at 4:49 am

Sister and binlaw in Edmonton are retiring and want to downgrade. So they recently made an offer on a smaller, older 3 bdr bungalow subject to inspection.

The place is a flip, you can tell straight off… an empty house with the cosmetic granite, stainless and hardwood.

Anyways the flip needed shingles, a 5G touch. The seller was asking 429G and they had offered 399G and wanted another 5G off but the seller wouldn’t come down another 5G so sister and binlaw backed out.

Turns out the flip had already been listed for 90 days at 449G but hadn’t sold so the seller had lowered the price to 429G.

Also sister and binlaw have there’s listed for 529G and haven’t had a sniff which also contributed to the cold feet on buying the downgrade flip before actually selling there’s.

Gut feel was telling them that they could be sitting on two houses and then being pressured to lower the price of theirs more then they wanted to move it.

Sign of things coming imo.

#70 Jed on 07.11.11 at 5:03 am

# 5 Tim
Great Weather?
As comapred to where? Siberia? Try weathering your way through a wet, cold west coast witner, where houses are not properly built because everybody beleives the myth that this is some kind of med. climate? And the sun? Take a poll of retirees and ask them how many remember what the sun looks like in the middle of winter. Snow? Try shovelling 40 pound scoops of the terrible wet stuff. And ferries (rates going up)… At least on the mainland you can get somewhere. Driving too; too much in-breeding on the island, people don’t know what a signal is for. They turn it on after they rear-end someone so they know its time to stop driving. Oh yea, and 70% of islanders are on pot so their logic is right up there with Sonny and Cher…

#71 betamax on 07.11.11 at 5:23 am

#5 Tim: “I’m convinced the market will tank, but I doubt Qualicum and Parksville will go much lower. They are primarily retirement towns, beautiful towns with great weather.”

Like all those cities in Florida? Don’t count on retirees to keep prices up — they’re terrified of losing money.
Retirees will turtle up when the correction goes mainstream.

I’ve seen the island go through two housing corrections, and both times those little-town service economies sunk into a black hole and took house prices with them. Won’t be different this time.

#72 BrianT on 07.11.11 at 6:23 am

#70jed-Yes-BC has pretty bad weather overall by North American standards-it makes zero sense for anyone retired to relocate to BC for weather. Southern Ontario towns are far cheaper and with better weather if the retiree spends 3-4 mos down south or in Hawaii,etc.

#73 BrianT on 07.11.11 at 6:28 am

#65Chris-That is Stockholm Maine.

#74 Taipan on 07.11.11 at 6:35 am

Good posting as always Garth. Ive seen more clear sense on this forum over the last few years then practically anywhere on the net.

Do vendors think buyers are stupid? Are they working on the pleading theory? Or are they all going to wake up tomorrow and think it will all be better.

As they say. Vendors set price, buyers determine turnover. So a few anecdotes.

Lets have a look at this recreational property.

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?&PropertyId=10542510&PidKey=-2020156703&Mode=5

Been on the market for 700 days already.

It was on the market for 411 days, at $1,399,000 with MLS 83185.

Withdrawn and relisted 8/4/2011 under 102604 at $1,425,000

Another: This one has been on the market for 1288 days.

http://www.sunpeakscollection.com/ActiveListings.php/Details/13#viewdetail

June 08 reduced from $989,000 to $949,000. August 08 reduced to current price of $895,000.

Some vendors still hope that there is a greater fool out there somewhere.

#75 BrianT on 07.11.11 at 6:37 am

#40Bottom-If you are interested in this subject you should do some reading. You could start with looking at a chart of world crude oil supply over the last 50 yrs.

#76 blase on 07.11.11 at 7:04 am

Utopia,

I’m trying unplugging the TV, and not getting an iPhone. Not on drugs myself, but seems like a lot of people are, considering 40,000 dead folks in Mexico the last two years from the drug trade. And that doesn’t include ritalin, prozac, etc. Someone said on here that Canadians have never had it better. Must be the disease of more.

#77 Van Isle Renter on 07.11.11 at 7:21 am

#44 Snowman:

you’re the naive one. I should have added that he worries about losing his down payment as well.

From the tone of your note, it sounds like you’ve been burned as a landlord.

Now, where did I leave those biscotti?

#78 Mr. Lee on 07.11.11 at 7:26 am

Mr. Turner’s point is clear, all realestate is local. In Calgary the local peddlers of home snake oil keep on chanting how the in migration of workers will keep on inflating house prices. As if everyone who comes to Calgary will land a job as an oil exec or Engineer and the pay to go with these jobs. I guess outrimmies and Walmart jobs pay a premium here in the land of milk honey and home prices.

#79 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.11.11 at 7:33 am

#63 old phart:

That is absolutely insane… I love how they add in the bit about “not wanting to rent for another 2 years”, like the seller of some house will feel sorry for them and give them double what any bank would?

The part about “won’t be a down payment” is a nice touch too!

#80 detalumis on 07.11.11 at 7:48 am

#54 People moving to senior communities are even greater than the greatest fools. They are the ones that drink the “smiling couples walking on the beach” Koolaid and think retirement is simply an extended vacation and think if they avoid planning for getting really sick then it will never happen. My mother-in-law hid a mini-stroke from her doctor because she was terrified of losing her licence. Never, ever retire to any place that you cannot live without a car. Get over your aversion to city life, it actually will keep you younger to be able to walk to things, have good transit and medical facilities and to mingle with people of different age groups. Communities built around seniors are also notoriously bad for employment and business opportunites, the people will spend money on their house and then snap their wallets tight on any other spending.

#81 down and out on 07.11.11 at 8:11 am

A few astute buyers from GTA have bought waterfront property in southwestern region of the province(Essex county).One newby told me he came here to retire but ended with some of his equity in the bank and a job in his field of expertize .He still feels great with no buyers remorse .One condo alone had all out of province people move in after five years of almost no sales.Some people are finally realizing this area is part of Canada too.This all could be just boomers looking to cash out, has most of the new people are retiring or forced down here by jobs relocating but it is nice to see some economic activity before St. Thomas area (london) becomes ground zero of losing reality values.

#82 Finanzkrise on 07.11.11 at 8:15 am

#5:
“I’m convinced the market will tank, but I doubt Qualicum and Parksville will go much lower. They are primarily retirement towns, beautiful towns with great weather.”

Yep – mid-summer forecast looks just great for Nanaimo:

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-20_metric_e.html

#32: re: $3.5M shack in Point Grey.

I’m not surprised by the bubble price tag or the lack of pictures of the inside, but certainly curious when they managed to take that single photo of the outside with blue sky in the background…

#83 The Original Dave on 07.11.11 at 8:20 am

In regards to responses related to credit expansion/contraction…

Whether we like it or not, we must recognize that a credit contraction is entirely possible. Just like the price of houses, gold, oil, life, in general, can also see a contraction. Why would this expansion be different than the ones in the early 1900’s or 1800’s? Its totally possible for us to have several consecutive decades of inflation, followed by a credit contraction that brings down the cost of living. I don’t think it’s different this time.

#84 Dan M. on 07.11.11 at 8:24 am

#13, Dave, it’s not just the increase in costs of living. Despite enormous increases in productivity, the average worker in North America (those making say…less than 80k!) has seen 0 (zero!) increases in REAL wages since the 1970’s. The extremely affluent have been the beneficiaries of all the increases in productivity. House prices are a big problem, but almost all of us here recognize that they’ll go down. Real wages? Don’t expect the top 1% (Garth…that’s you) to give up the gains they’ve made just so we can have a rise in real wages.

#85 Canuck Abroad on 07.11.11 at 8:31 am

From the Wall St Journal – “A Home is a Lousy Investment”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304259304576375323652341888.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

#86 Utopia on 07.11.11 at 8:31 am

#76 blase on 07.11.11 at 7:04 am

“I’m trying unplugging the TV, and not getting an iPhone. Not on drugs”
——————————————–
Never thought you were on dope, sorry. It was about the invasiveness of so many technologies which is what I was really getting at. It robs your time, fills your mind with other peoples ideas and agendas and turns normal people into slaves to every ringing, buzzing, vibrating device. And who wants a phone with GPS that tracks your every move anyway…or access to social networking that is really just a form of corporate spying.

We don’t do Facebook, Twitter or LinkIn here either. All crap. Just forms of intrusion and data collection that can never benefit the users as much as the vendors.

What cracks me up is the people buying GPS navigation systems so they can go shopping. What ever was wrong with maps……or memory…..or asking for directions and meeting new people.

The great irony of many technologies is that while they offer freedom and independence what they demand in exchange is a kind of servitude of the user. And users of most software gladly give consent.

Like, who clicks “no” when you are prompted to agree to the terms and conditions of a new package? Know anyone who has ever read the terms before agreeing? This society has gone nuts.

Getting unplugged is a great stress reliever. Seriously. You will become a better gardener too. I would gladly pull weeds before spending an hour reading one more “gadget” manual.

#87 Dan M. on 07.11.11 at 8:36 am

#65, Chris…ME stands for Maine…that little house is in Stockholm Maine.

A house like that in Stockholm Sweden would set you back a lot more I’d think…not as much as Vanfever, but a lot more than a quarter.

#88 Burnt Norton on 07.11.11 at 8:48 am

#61 eva on 07.11.11 at 1:52 am

Realtors like her have to continue to believe this. For them to contemplate otherwise would be as frightening as realizing that the sun might not rise tomorrow. Collective delusion via denial. Incredibly interesting.

#89 Kimi on 07.11.11 at 8:58 am

#39 Utopia …. on getting rid of all the electronics part.
———— Ditto for me. No cell, no cable, no ipod. I have a lap top and radio. Most everything I own has a multipurpose. I either love it or use it. Its true you only use 20 percent of what you own. I think I use about 80. I have a land line because I talk to my mom once in awhile.
It is freeing. You can breath and have more time for fun, reading, thinking, life.
As for the Mrs. Part… I seem to attract the complete opposite. So I feel for you. I get that, I think its more because some people develop character and not so much hooked on the trinkets in life. We probally spend more time thinking where as that seems to be unfamilliar territory for most and I am by no means saying this from an egotistical stand point, just my humble opinion.
I have been free of the stuff part since I left home. I have had cable say 6 months of my adult life.
Liberating!

#90 nsqt on 07.11.11 at 9:35 am

Observation the other day while looking through the mls for Bridgewater Nova Scotia……..3 homes all side by side……they are pretty much identical and condition is the same and approx the same square footage and all 18 years of age. House 1 is 154,500 House 2 is 163,500 and House 3 which is a For Sale by Owner is asking 194,000……..I am thinking some people have a unrealistic sense of what their house is worth……..

#91 Utopia on 07.11.11 at 9:47 am

#71 Betamax

“I’ve seen the island go through two housing corrections, and both times those little-town service economies sunk into a black hole and took house prices with them. Won’t be different this time.”
—————————————————————————
Hundred percent agree Betamax.

I witnesses exactly the same thing. I lived out on the Island many years ago and saw a couple of busts. Saw firsthand how far prices could fall in a typical British Columbia recession and how miserable everyone felt.

Remember when forestry was last on the skids? Or when the salmon were not showing up….or the coal mines got shut down….or ship services at Esquimalt rolled over…or when tourism went into a big funk? Like too often!

All the things that slowed the economy then are in place to cause a repeat of the past hard times. Only now, with high personal debt and virtually no industry remaining, it can only be much, much worse.

My recollection was that Vancouver Island took a hell of a beating in RE with each downward turn of the business cycle. Unemployment shot up, crime increased and the malls went very quiet. The misery was compounded for those affected and living on EI because they often could not even afford to drive off the Island.

I hear BC Ferries is raising rates again, BTW. Tough break.

#92 ballingsford on 07.11.11 at 9:48 am

Things are just too expensive nowadays. Gas is crazily expensive, but I’m glad I don’t have to drive too far, if at all. My wife’s commute is just 5K away and I take the bus.

Went to Farm Boy yesterday to get a couple of Strip loins, Pistachios, and a few other things and it cost me $65.00. That was just for one meal and a few snacks.

I don’t know how people are surviving these days where they have a large mortgage, property taxes, utilities, maintenance, fuel, etc.

It’s not going to end well!

#93 stage1dave on 07.11.11 at 9:51 am

Great post, & close to my heart since my father’s side of the family all lives in that Victoria/Duncan/Nanaimo corridor.

4 years ago I was returning on a Westjet flight to Calgary, & struck up a conversation with a journeyman electrician about RE in Victoria…he had just got an appraisal on his bi-level for 620K; was going to increase his LOC for more toys. I inquired what tradesmen were making in Lotusland…$26/hr plus benefits he replied…huh?!

That kind of money would barely get you unionized labourers in in most parts of AB at the time…

My stepsister bought a nice 50’s hillside bungalow in Lake Cowichan in 03; price had ballooned to 320K 3 yrs later…what did she do? Maxed out her mortgage to blow 60K on basement “redevelopment” & buy a “revenue property” which has been nothing but a money pit. WHEN it’s rented, the payments barely carry the mortgage. The bank, of course, was a willing participant in all of this re-fi horsecrap…

She & her partner are lucky if they bring in 3K a month…

I could carry on with a couple more horror stories, but I’ll cut to the chase. My dad was on my case all thru the 2K’s to move out to the island. I demurred because I didn’t see much of a local economy other than the service industry; the “heavy spending” was being done by people who had socked it away years ago. In other words, there was a complete disconnect between wage earned (locally) & housing prices. (locally)

In my mind, this did not bode well for anyone looking to “build” a business. The island is not Phoenix or east LA with a potential market of millions in the trading area! The high dollar logging jobs were all long gone, & people making their living in the service industries have little discretionary income. Couple that with the outrageous price of housing & I concluded it was just a potential disaster waiting to happen.

Anyway, I told dad if he’d spend the money building the shop & buying my house I’d risk my time & talent…at least it ended all discussion of what “a great place the island would be for your business” BS.

As several previous posters have noted, as a society we have denigrated into a life of convenience. I’m not saying life is supposed to be hard, just that as a group we don’t seem to deal with adversity as well as previous generations; because apparently it’s not supposed to happen. Our assets must always INCREASE in value, dammit!

I grew up in Regina 1969-80 (not my fault, btw) & we were a one car, one working parent family. (so was everybody else) There was never enuff money, but I don’t recall wanting for anything. If you wanted to see your friends, or go to the mall, you walked (or biked) over…if I watched too much TV, (like back to back episodes of Star Trek) I got kicked out of the house & was told to “go do something” (like take out the garbage) or throw a ball around.

Don’t EVER remember my parents thinking about the house as “an investment” or saying “we should buy a revenue property”; it was just somewhere you lived!

Wow, now I’m starting to sound like my father…

#94 DaBull on 07.11.11 at 9:56 am

The houses around that golf course haven’t been selling since mid-2008. We rented one of those masterpiece houses in 2009 that was listed at 1.2 million in 2007 and in the spring of 2009 (the time we rented it) it was priced at 650k and in foreclosure. This is nothing new for property around that golf course, it’s been going on for years. Anyone wanting to live in that area and likes that house should put in an offer of $550k or less, they’ll probably get it. I wouldn’t doubt that property is also in foreclosure.

#95 pjwlk on 07.11.11 at 9:59 am

I just completed a boat tour of the entire Trent-Severn Waterway (8 days). To say there were a lot of cottages for sale on the waterway is a bit of an understatement. Prices are also appearing to look more reasonable in some instances.

I guess the toys and extras are the first to go. Just in time, I need a bigger boat for the “Great Loop Tour” next year…lol.

#96 Utopia on 07.11.11 at 10:07 am

#71 Betamax

“I’ve seen the island go through two housing corrections, and both times those little-town service economies sunk into a black hole and took house prices with them. Won’t be different this time.”
—————————————————————————
Hundred percent agree Betamax.

I witnessed exactly the same thing. I lived out on the Island many years ago and saw a couple of busts. Saw firsthand how far prices could fall in a typical British Columbia recession and how miserable everyone felt.

Remember when forestry was last on the skids? Or when the salmon were not showing up….or the coal mines got shut down….or ship services at Esquimalt rolled over…or when tourism went into a big funk?

Like constantly!

All the things that slowed the economy then are in place to cause a repeat of the past hard times. Only now, with high personal debt and virtually no industry remaining, it can only be much, much worse. And all those retirees are not big consumers. They clip coupons for gods sake and only shop on seniors days. They won’t be saving the economy.

My recollection was that Vancouver Island took a hell of a beating in RE with each downward turn of the business cycle. Unemployment shot up, crime increased and the malls went very quiet. The misery was compounded for those affected and living on EI because they often could not even afford to drive off the Island.

I hear BC Ferries is raising rates again, BTW. Tough break.

#97 debtified on 07.11.11 at 10:08 am

Aussie Roy, thank you for the Aussie updates. It’s obvious, by the numbers, that the RE market down-under has begun its trip back to sanity. I wonder what the words on the street are. Are the general masses aware of the situation and have turned bearish on RE? Have the sentiments turn south?

Good on Australia for having the correction sooner than Canada. If its any consolation, you are not the greatest fools on earth. We are. The longer we hold out up here, the more painful the inevitable correction will be.

Cheers,

#98 Junius on 07.11.11 at 10:10 am

#61 Eva,

I know how you feel. About 6 months ago I ran into a young guy I know and we talked about Real Estate. He had said he was tired of renting and his girlfriend really wanted him to buy. Mixed into this seemed to be the implication that if their relationship was going to move forward he would have to be a home-owner.

I spent a bit of time telling him to consider price to rent ratios and other factors at this time. He tried to listen but seemed distracted by what I was saying.

Ran into him last week. New buyer of a downtown condo. Swagger, cocky and glad that he was now a member of the prestige club known as owners. Greeted me like he was finally worthy to shake my hand. Bizarre.

I don’t believe there is any place on Earth right now where the Prestige factor of being an owner is more ingrained in the local culture than Vancouver. You have to experience it to see how ill it really is. The Dutch and their tulip bulb mania have nothing on us here!

We will fall very hard.

#99 Daisy Mae on 07.11.11 at 10:16 am

“Where are the buyers here, or in southwestern Ontario, Halifax, Kelowna or Airdrie? In reality, the Canadian real estate market is already correcting, hit by price fatigue, swelling debt and a swampy economy. ”

Talked to a woman with a house to sell — on the market for over a year — and a local RE agent in Kelowna tells her “the market is picking up!”

I said zip….what’s the point?

#100 Peakoilist on 07.11.11 at 10:17 am

#40 Bottoms_up

Please do some research about Peak Oil…I hear that argument about having lots of oil left too many times and it’s getting very tired.

The discovery and production of oil follows a bell curve.The Peak of oil discoveries was reached in the mid-sixties. When we’ve reached Peak Oil (production circa 2006, 89 mbd), we have used up half of the world’s recoverable oil. However the rub is that the first half was the cheapest and easiest to get at. Now we enter the age of diminishing returns.
Sadly the day is coming (maybe here already) that it costs more to get the oil out of the ground than it is actually worth.
When the markets realize that on that fateful day it will resonate worldwide.(At some level the markets realize it already, or will shortly…Recessions always follow extreme Spikes in oil prices ..did we reach that earlier this spring when the world price of oil neared or surpassed the $120 mark?..time will tell.

It could be that speculation (sounds a lot like RE speclation ?!?)
is artificially keeping the price high enough to keep the ball game going.

Can we explain why ,if oil is trading around $100 a barrel, that we are on a bumby production plateau in the area of 87-88 mb per day ? Why not produce more and rev up the economic engine of the world ?

The short answer is that NO MORE CAN BE PRODUCED CHEAPLY..
THIS IS THE REALITY BOTTOMS_UP ( it’s the reason that the stock market is overvalued by 40% and RE by god only knows how much.

So it really doesn’t matter how much unconventional (expensive to recover)oil is left in Venezuela or in
Alberta, the question is: Is there enough capital left in the world to extract it? Definitely not because that oil is THE CAPITAL. It will stay in the ground…..

#101 Junius on 07.11.11 at 10:17 am

#40 Bottom’s_Up,

You said, “And my point about oil forming over millions of years was alluding to the fact that if one contemplates the mass of living organisms/plants etc. that have existed over this vast length of time (a length of which we can’t even comprehend), there is likely enough oil present in the Earth’s crust to last centuries.”

Do you have any evidence of this? You realize that this opinion puts you in conflict with every credible scientist who studies this issue.

It takes more than 100 years of plant decomposition to create one inch of top soil. It take millions of years to create an oil field. We have used up most of the easy to access fossil fuels which is why we have moved to oil sands and hydraulic fracking for gas.

Peak oil is here my friend. Cheap oil is pretty much gone for ever. Better get used to it.

#102 Utopia on 07.11.11 at 10:19 am

#89 Kimi to #39 Utopia

…. on getting rid of all the electronics part. Ditto for me. No cell, no cable, no ipod. I have a lap top and radio.
—————————————————————-
Awesome Kimi, I just knew there were others out there who decided to disconnect for sanity and personal freedom. I don’t live the way I do for economic reasons either. I can afford all the trinkets. They just don’t add to my life (subtract is more like it).

When I am at someone else’s place and they have the TV running the whole visit, phone ringing off the hook, microwaves bleeting, kid playing X-box in the backroom and music to boot….everyone shouting because nobody can hear each other talk…..my head just swims.

It is like an assault on my brain. Noise pollution. RF invasion.

I really don’t know how anyone can live like that. Cable has got to be the worst. Don’t you just love the looks people give you when you tell them you don’t own a TV?

The seem so dumbfounded. Think we are the crazy ones.

#103 bill on 07.11.11 at 10:33 am

”LMAO … how naive. You really think your landlord loses any sleep over your hot water tank or the roof?”

yup.
no hot water – no rent. if you really upset them, vandalism
actual real landlords quickly learn that its best to keep the tenant happy as far as we are legally obliged.

while our suites are renting out much quicker than last winter our company has an apt building in surrey that languishes at half capacity due to a scarcity of suitable tenants .

we are keeping a close eye on that ”underwater mortgage problem” as it directly impacts our tenant base.
tenants are about to become rare.the wise landlord will keep them happy.

#104 disciple on 07.11.11 at 10:38 am

Kimi and Utopia…

You both need to get an iPhone. It’s the new printing press. Light years ahead of anything similar. It will change your lives for the better…help you with your gardening Utopia…help you to think better Kimi. Technology is not your enemy, culture is.

#105 disciple on 07.11.11 at 10:40 am

Junius, there is an abundance of evidence from non-industry employed scientists that oil is abiotic. Just look for a change. Make the change. What prevents you is …. fear. If you are wrong on such a fundamental aspect of modern life, what else could you be wrong about?

Almost everything you know is wrong.

#106 UVZ on 07.11.11 at 10:54 am

#33 Golden Stu

[…“abiotic oil theory”… this isnt the theoildrum.com, we can get back to the housing doom now.]

abiotic: Pronunciation:/ˌeɪbʌɪˈɒtɪk/ adjective
physical rather than biological; not derived from living organisms; devoid of life ; sterile.

Are you saying that this blog is about abiotic housing?

#107 Hoof - Hearted on 07.11.11 at 11:03 am

My Nephew is a PHD student on Van. Island….they just had their first baby.

They had bought a condo…which had a no children policy…so had to move.

I kept in touch with him, and put him onto this blog.

They didn’t know whether to buy or…… rent…on campus(UVIC ).

When I was at their condo….I said Sell ASAP…it was one of those wedding cake stucco prime for major restoration……

Good news is they sold, now rent on campus….and Garth can take a bow(truly !!) …one couple saved.

#108 disciple on 07.11.11 at 11:07 am

The notion of ‘Peak Oil’ is being specifically marketed to the anti-war crowd — because, as we all know, the pro-war crowd doesn’t need to be fed any additional justifications for going to war; any of the old lies will do just fine.

This doesn’t mean we should be burning it in our automobiles, it is too beautiful a collection of molecules to be wasted in this way. It is about control of your mind.

http://www.viewzone.com/abioticoilx.html

Were there dinosaurs on Saturn’s smoggy moon Titan, which has hundreds of times more natural gas and other liquid hydrocarbons than all the known oil and natural gas reserves on Earth? Titan is just covered in carbon-bearing material — it’s a giant factory of organic chemicals. Titan’s surface organics ALONE surpass all oil reserves on Earth.

It’s a funny thing, eh? Truth?

#109 wetcoaster on 07.11.11 at 11:09 am

#64 Goldenrod,

Whose whining ? I’m stating the facts. Incase you didn’t know, “greed” does set the market when those with control of the few house rentals push the prices up because renters can be desperate. Telling me to move to Saskatchewan sounds like an anal real estate agent. A renter defending the greedy landlord, go figger, lol.

And I’m not desperate, but happy renting a nice place for a very reasonable price. Just stating that the price of a change of scenerey to a main floor of a house in Victoria is a gouge at almost double the price to listen to people underneath me. Good luck trying to get a couple hundred off, those will be few and far between until the market starts correcting hard.

#110 maddog78 on 07.11.11 at 11:09 am

Nice place but in the middle of nowhere.
I’d offer them 500K.

#111 BrianT on 07.11.11 at 11:28 am

#108Disc-No-Peak Oil isn’t being marketed to anyone-what is being marketed is a fantasy of wealth being created digitally. If you are going to go to other planets or go 40000 ft down on Earth to get oil you will need a cheap energy source to power the trip (if you plan on selling this new oil cheaply and turning a profit). You might as well just use this new fancy cheap energy source you discovered and leave the oil in the ground. You should tell KSA to stop wasting their money on Nuclear and just start drilling deeper holes.

#112 disciple on 07.11.11 at 11:32 am

The sharing of ideas is to be encouraged. This is how The Machine of Deception is defeated. Don’t discourage idealism or dreaming, how else can someone develop an understanding of universal truths, unless they’re allowed to dream? Let them confer, suppose and philosophize.

Much can be gleaned from those who have gone before us. Don’t waste your own opportunity to seek the advice of a senior citizen, that you may know or that you see around your neighbourhood, or at your church, or at your local watering hole, or wherever. Their brazen bluntness and spicy rhetoric is a bitter pill for anyone drinking the latest KoolAid on any subject. One of the first eye-openers would be that retirement isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be. For someone such as myself that has always had a goal of retiring at 50 or so, I’ve had to re-think things based on their advice and experience. Enjoy your family for as long as you can. It’s the journey that matters, the memories (the mind) is all that matters. Alzheimer’s will quickly drive this point home.

There are gigantic glass structures on the dark side of the moon. There is a reason many of your familiar media characters in real life are also found in the latest Transformers movie. For those who have seen, it is a preparation course for the upcoming disclosure.

#113 my 2 cents on 07.11.11 at 11:34 am

“that local real estate has intrinsic value because everyone else wants to move there. …….” has been the mantra in Victoria forever.

HMMM, why then is the population of greater Victoria (all the way from Sidney to downtown, 40km south) still only about 300k? Downtown has only about 70k residents…

So, although BC’s capital, certainly not a lot of people there!

So, greater fools, continue fantasizing about everyone in the entire world wanting to live in Victoria. Yeah, I’m sure you’ll get your ridiculous asking price for your mouldy dump in Oak Bay. Those days are OVER.

#114 smoking man on 07.11.11 at 11:37 am

3 2 1. BONDS AWAY. Kids you wana know where real estate is going follow the bond markey. You wana know where equities are going follow the bond market

Now BOC just did a survey from employeers they are up beat about future hiring. Hum. 6ollow the bond market. It does not have an agenda and allways tells the truth

#115 ballingsford on 07.11.11 at 11:38 am

#91 Stage1 Dave
**************

I’ve got your back brother and I relate. We played outside all the time when we were kids and if we ever mentioned that we were bored when we were inside, then there was dishes to wash, vacuuming to be done, windows to wash, etc.

Much better to be outside and swing through the trees, raid hornet and ants nests (trying not to get stung and bitten), make bows, arrows and spears, and stay as far away from your mother as you can until dinner is ready.

When dinner is ready and you come back inside then you give her a big hug and a kiss because you love her so much!!!

Love my momma! Hope I can pass some of this stuff on to my own child!

#116 maxx on 07.11.11 at 11:39 am

#11 squidly77 on 07.10.11 at 9:49 pm

Excellent article Squidly.
Realtors et al. manipulating data- does not surprise me in the least. I had suspected this might happen. Methinks it is time to put the lot of them under the microscope, lest buyers waste a ton of excess cash paying inflated “list” prices. More than ever, buyer beware!!

#117 MM on 07.11.11 at 11:41 am

#102 Utopia, you’re sounding like Marshall McLuhan

#118 torontorocks on 07.11.11 at 11:50 am

I think Original Dave nailed it. its around 2005/2006 when this thing started to go apeshit.

being in the city, living and working here, there is no effing way these prices are/can be sustainable on the net take home of the worker. I make pretty good coin and I know what I can afford without having to go into further debt to make it work. and most importantly, these prices AREN’T WORTH IT!

toronto ain’t that hot! I’m born and bred here and I know it for what it is – not some fancy hipster d-bag paying through the nose to live in a slum called Trinity Bellwoods (the madhouse) or West King West (the slaughterhouse) or the Beaches (the outhouse)

#119 Peakoilist on 07.11.11 at 12:03 pm

#108 Disciple…just keep on dreaming brother ..
Btw in my last post #100. I meant “bumpy production plateau”.
almost all of the Peak Oil experts talk about how the world will remain on a bumpy plateau of extreme price fluctuations for a few years until the demand finally begins to chase an inexorable supply decline of that precious black gold.
No amount of wishing or prayer will reverse it.
It is the reality of living on a finite sphere.
Disciple you can try to convince everyone that we will someday fly to Titan and recover its Hydrocarbons…that is your far fetched truth. I would rather believe Geologists. There is no conspiracy to hide the oil or vast reserves at the centre of the Earth.
And Disciple, even if there was some truth about Abiotic Oil, sadly it is too late. We are now past Peak Oil…that research should have been done about 30 years ago to save us now.If what you say is “true” then why haven’t we discovered any new “Saudi Arabias”in the last 40 years?..The closest thing was the North Sea in the eighties and it has peaked. The only reason that we are tapping into the hard to recover stuff, is that it’s all that is left. Explain why the big guys are now drilling to 5000 ft deep and beyond? Easy oil is not there anymore..The next nation to hit peak is the big guy..Saudi Arabia..
Governments have just ignored it , believing that the markets and technology will discover more oil.. that lunacy will take this modern civilization down.

#120 Victoria on 07.11.11 at 12:11 pm

The Original Dave,

I remember when everyone seemed to have cottages. It was not a big deal. Also growing up in Winnipeg – many people had swimming pools (have to enjoy summer while it is there). This is the 70s and 80s. Now in Victoria it is a status symbol.

We are a one income family – we have 4 kids – my husband’s salary is far from average and we can’t make ends meet. We don’t go out for dinner – we don’t travel – we don’t spoil our kids – our son did go to camp for 2 weeks in Ontario though.

#121 Bottoms_Up on 07.11.11 at 12:14 pm

We were told the world was at peak oil in the 1970’s.

How’d that turn out?

What’s that George Bush saying? “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice….”

I don’t buy the ‘peak oil’ thing for one minute. I don’t pretend to know how much oil is out there, and I can’t imagine anyone in the world actually knows the WHOLE EARTH well enough to know how much oil is out there.

Why would top executives expand their oil-guzzling car companies into India and China if they thought the world was running out of oil/gas?

Why do oil exploration companies still exist?

How much unexplored land and sea is there out there?

Sure, gas may be expensive, but I bet you my grandkids will still be using gasoline in their cars. And they won’t even be born for a long time to come.

There will be no ‘shame on me’.

#122 Peakoilist on 07.11.11 at 12:17 pm

#UVZ
maybe peak oil theory is valid for this blog..
It may just explain the Ginormous speculative bubble, perhaps the largest in history, that we find the globe experiencing right now…Is it bursting as oil reserves are inexorably declining. blows the mind doesn’t it? We won’t realize it until years later as we look in the rear view mirror or maybe we’ll just blame it on something else.

#123 Lead Paint on 07.11.11 at 12:18 pm

Checkout the Agenda tonight: Dan Ariely: Predictably Irrational | The Case Against Home Ownership

“Dan Ariely on why human beings are predictably irrational and post-financial meltdown…have our behaviours changed? And, it used to be that owning a home was the North American dream. But is it a good dream? The financial crisis showed us that maybe everyone shouldn’t own a home. But what would that do to the economy?”

http://www.tvo.org/cfmx/tvoorg/theagenda/

TVO at 8 pm. Garth, they’re stealing your thunder.

#124 Rocket Boy on 07.11.11 at 12:37 pm

Can you have your cake..and eat it too?

Some in here say – hey, fools are buying today, I’ll wait till it drops 30% then buy – what’s up with that percentage I read all the time – why not wait till 80 or better yet 95% price drop – when the sun eventually burns itself out – prices across the board will be really cheap –

Why oh why do some wish to see their fellow citizen wallow in the financial abyss – don’t some get it – “we” as a society rushed into this housing nonsense – and “we” as a society will pay dearly for it –

If you think this will be contained to the housing industry only – you need your head examined – and if things turn really ugly – a bullet proof car may be all the rage – and I thought the mad max movie was far fetched..seems more likely each and every day!

I need my jet pack and blast off this rock~

#125 jess on 07.11.11 at 12:38 pm

Changing the way inflation is measured to determine Social Security benefits is one option on the table in The so-called Chained Consumer Price Index on average results in a lower inflation levels than the more common formula used to adjust benefits.

“The result would be devastating cuts for millions of American seniors and people with disabilities,” said Sanders.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost
Consumer Price Index – Chained Consumer Price Index
=============
cat food substitution -Fortified Peanut Butter – powdered milk and vitamins added to it to make a sweet paste-like food.
=========

Supreme Court CIGNA Ruling Allows Workers to Reverse Harmful Pension Changes

Richard L. Kaplan
University of Illinois College of Law
Abstract:
This brief article discusses the recent Supreme Court decision in CIGNA v. Amara. That case held that ERISA authorizes a court to reform a pension plan that an employer had changed so that employees receive the benefits they had been promised. The article considers the key implications of this decision for employees and employers, focusing on relevant communications of the employer and the applicable standard of proof.

http://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/09-804.ZO.html

#126 Junius on 07.11.11 at 12:39 pm

#108 Disciple,

You said, “The notion of ‘Peak Oil’ is being specifically marketed to the anti-war crowd.”

Evidence? And for what purpose? What is mind blowing is just how stupid people can be. Peak Oil is a simple fact of running out of a scarce resource at a time we remain hooked to the substance and use is growing in countries like China and India.

Yet another problem we fail to deal with in advance.

Look up the phrase “Cognitive Dissonance” and then look in the mirror. Or are you starting an oil and gas mining operation on Titan?

#127 Junius on 07.11.11 at 12:42 pm

#121 Bottoms_Up,

You said, “I don’t pretend to know how much oil is out there.”

You can say that again. And again. Why don’t you just stop posting on something you clearly and admittedly don’t know a thing about?

#128 new_era on 07.11.11 at 12:46 pm

#44
LMAO … how naive. You really think your landlord loses any sleep over your hot water tank or the roof?
No doubt he’ll fix the HWT only in a week or two or three, meanwhile you’ll have to shower at the gym (if they let you) as for washing dishes, well I have the feeling that before all is fixed, you’ll be sipping quite a bit of that cappuccino. Same goes with the roof, you’ll have to move your belongings around to a dry spot until he cares to fix the roof.
Looks to me like, after 20+ years of homeowneship you kinda lost contact with reality, that in case there was any contact before.

========================
Oh F*&ck yes. I use to be an landlord and when there is a problem man you get called. If that water tank leaks
I sure hope the tenants tell me right away, because if it goes, the water damage could be huge.

1. I lost sleep collecting rent, if its not on time, them you have to decide on wether to kick them out and start processing the tenant act forms to start the eviction process

2. I lost sleep when the washer and dry broke down, toilets clogged, and I was on vacation. Had to make some call and pay someone to manage getting the thing fixed ASAP

3. I lost sleep when the tenants give their notice and I had to find new tenant. And also had to perform cleanup and upgrades (painting, filling walls, replacing floors etc) before the next tenants came in

4. I lost sleep when rumours of shadey people coming and going into the rental house.

5. I lost sleep when the boy who mows the lawn for the rental, was on vacation for a month.

6. I lost sleep during the spring time and fall, and I had to perform normal maintenance of painting the fence, clearing the gutters, and ensuring the water was turned off during the freezing month.

Yes I have lost alot of sleep. But thats the job of a landlord

#129 BrianT on 07.11.11 at 12:51 pm

#121Bottom-Your evident pride in your ignorance is admirable-good for you.

#130 Peakoilist on 07.11.11 at 12:51 pm

#121
The USA reached peak oil in 1970 and then oil shocks followed as oil had to be imported to the States.
The world is not running out of oil..Peak oil theory states that as we reach peak we have used 1/2 of the oil…the easy and cheapest half.
they keep exploring because that’s their business..but the pickins have been getting slimmer since the 60’s
The car companies are expanding into China to build cheaper cars and get more people addicted..just like house porn..somehow believing that some technology will come along to keep the party going.
Sure , there is unexplored sea on the planet but that is the hard and expensive oil to recover..are you starting to get it?
or you can choose to ignore and shame on you and the other sheeple.

#131 disciple on 07.11.11 at 12:52 pm

BrianT…I actually agree with you that the easy oil is being depleted, but more will eventually ooze up from the 5000ft and below level. The big boys are merely establishing control over the deeper oil because although they have known about the abiotic origin of oil (proven by the methods they use to find it), they have the technology and resources to sequester the main event now. And they will play the Scarcity card in order to drive up the price of everything in getting what they want. Just like DeBeers slowed their production of diamonds to inflate the price, that is what is happening with oil, both commodities formed under similar circumstances in the Earth’s mantle. It’s a con. And you’re falling for it, hook, line, and sinker.

#132 Junius on 07.11.11 at 12:57 pm

#105 disciple,

The idea of all oil being abiotic is not just a minority one by scientists but a rare one. The reason is that all unrefined oil carries microscopic evidence of the organisms from which it was formed. We can use these organisms to trace the specific time periods when quantities of oil were formed.

Even is you are right (which I do not believe you are) then so what? If oil is abiotic it does not mean that there are vast pools of it under the oceans just waiting to be tapped. There may still be a finite amount. Furthermore it will obviously be very expensive to retrieve.

What I don’t understand is why it is so important to believe even when it can’t be proved? All of the things we should be doing to conserve energy, burn fewer hydrocarbons and move to alternative energy we should be doing regardless.

#133 CREDIT running OUT!!!! on 07.11.11 at 1:12 pm

Smokingman and all ther other realtors can talk all they like but credit is running out in Canada. Buddy in Vancouver in his million dollar townhome is UNDER WATER. How? How in a rising market? His cashed out his equity. Yup bought a few years ago and cashed out the “equity” since they COULD NOT afford to live. Another buddy is having problems with her credit card as it seems someone is using her card around town,this has happened more then once . Now for the next five day she has no credit card. I said to her why don’t you use cash. This is a “home ownerof one year said to me “LOL…..what money? I live off credit” Yes that was the response back. Canada is in the biggest credit bubble in history. It is now bigger then the credit bubble in the US. Have a banker buddy who tells me they have now started to “LIMIT” peoples credit since many have maxed out or close to maxing out and are asking for more money. The banks are now saying NO! . People will borrow until the banks stop them. This EXACT same thing happened in the US. We all know the outcome. Welcome to the 2011 CREDIT CRASH of Canada. Sorry smokingman but light up another cause the crash is coming RIGHT NOW. Look out below indebt to your eyeballs.

#134 disciple on 07.11.11 at 1:14 pm

Logic was invented by the Greeks. It is a discipline, a technology we use to understand our world. It is not innate to our minds. Wisdom enters through our hearts first, that’s why humility is the beginning of wisdom.

Occam’s Razor only works in a closed loop of knowledge. If that knowledge is flawed, Occam’ Razor is irrelevant.

That’s why when people believe something so strongly, it unnerves them when new knowledge has been discovered or bequeathed through precipitous hard labour (science) or through divine benefaction (luck). That nervous feeling is fear.

#135 Mr Buyer on 07.11.11 at 1:21 pm

It took forever to track down a documentary the gave a not so in depth accont of the bursting of the stock market bubble in 1929 that lead to the stock market crash. Many parrallels (even globalization offered as a rational for huge speculation and 10% down on the purchase of stocks, then known as buying on margin). The link is to part 1 of 5 on Youtube is as follows…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcvCc6VIyyU
There is no guarantee that it will up long on YouTube. I will try to track down another link.

#136 Beach Girl on 07.11.11 at 1:22 pm

Nice people rent off me. I do not over charge their rent. They actually assist with the yard maintenance. I would never live in a condo. They just seem like big shelves in the sky. I know Binny is dead, but I hear he has a few brothers. Like to step out in the morning on grass, so does the mental, non squirrel catching Jack Russell. That was an error in judgement, but I am liking a dog nastier that me. Good companionship. But, when I am dead and gone, my brick home will be owned by the 2 idiots. But with a condo. How is that infrastructure going to hold up in time. Any ideas on that folks, I am curious again.

#137 Mr Buyer on 07.11.11 at 1:27 pm

This is a link to part 2 of 5 of the documentary but there is not guarantee how long it will be up on YouTube…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh2I8P_GZys
I will try to track down another link

#138 Hoof - Hearted on 07.11.11 at 1:30 pm

Peak Oil ?

Only the vested interests have the technological ability to have a handle on what is allegedly a finite quantity OIL).

Under this premise…..they still have NO absolute clue as to the TOTAL amount of oil present if OIL volume was established via the “dead dinosaur” theory.

What has always made me somewhat suspicious was modern technology can produce diamonds..but has anyone ever taken dead animals and created a reduction to fossil fuels especially crude oil ?

The vested interests have always lied and manipulated….why would we expect this to change?

Fossils From Animals And Plants Are Not Necessary For Crude Oil And Natural Gas, Swedish Researchers Find

http://www.viewzone.com/abioticoilx.html

#139 No Fun Vancouver on 07.11.11 at 1:32 pm

How about some positive advice on how we can profit from the real estate crash!

How does one short a market and stock. How to limit your losses when shorting. Is shorting advisable as a defensive strategy to protect investments in the stock market?

Where is the world headed, and where will be the companies/markets to invest in going forward? What companies are on their way out.

#140 Mr Buyer on 07.11.11 at 1:34 pm

Here is part 3 of 5 of the documentary. Again no guarantee how long the link will function…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bhAaHfJGJ8
I will try to track down another link.

#141 Mr Buyer on 07.11.11 at 1:38 pm

Here is part 4 of 5 of the documentary. No guarantees how long the link will be good…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFhEDJehNDo
I will try to find other links.

#142 Devore on 07.11.11 at 1:42 pm

#61 eva

This post on Mish’s blog has been making the rounds recently, giving a nod to the “permanently high plateau” theory.

For those not up to speed on their history, it was Irving Fisher, a highly regarded economist of his day, who declared in 1929 that “stocks have reached a permanently high plateau”, literally just days before Wall Street brokers decided to become airborne.

Proponents of new economic paradigms always end up disappointed.

#143 Mr Buyer on 07.11.11 at 1:42 pm

Here is part 5 of 5 of the documentary. Same disclaimer, no guarantees how long the link will be active…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlUfAMW8rIk
I will try to find other links that will remain active longer.

#144 Valkyrie on 07.11.11 at 1:48 pm

Also live on the island. Work in tourism. No Americans or Europeans spending money with me this year, and this used to be 2/3 of my business. In fact, all my business this year comes from west of Sask.

Lots of boats for sale as well and nothing selling. Damn those fixed cost toys…quiet this year out on the water, nice.

And housing? Well lots more choice these days. A friends house has had two offers fall thru and has been for sale over a year. Getting harder to find a greater fool.

Nanaimo unemployment rate (official) is 16.2%, what could possibly go wrong in these “good times”? The bong shop does a roaring business here. Also, highest welfare rate in the province.

#145 Interesting Article on 07.11.11 at 1:50 pm

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Long-craved-goal-home-capress-2835961074.html

#146 UVZ on 07.11.11 at 1:50 pm

#108 disciple

[Were there dinosaurs on Saturn’s smoggy moon Titan, which has hundreds of times more natural gas and other liquid hydrocarbons than all the known oil and natural gas reserves on Earth? Titan is just covered in carbon-bearing material — it’s a giant factory of organic chemicals. Titan’s surface organics ALONE surpass all oil reserves on Earth.]

Good point about Saturn’s moon, Titan.

However, the economics of extracting and transporting the stuff over to planet earth is a deal killer.

#147 Devore on 07.11.11 at 1:55 pm

#63 old phart

Wow, usually owner financing is sought when credit cries up, or the buyer is unable to obtain credit. With zero savings and even greedy banks unwilling to lend them a half million, these people have no business owning, no matter how much they would hate to rent for 2 more years.

#148 bigrider on 07.11.11 at 2:05 pm

Garth, I think you should give us updates as to the number of visits to your site so we too can see if the message is getting out and we can use as a gauge of how fearful people are becoming.

#149 garrulous squirrel on 07.11.11 at 2:23 pm

Italy and the growing list of ‘PIIGS’. There can only be a massive swell in the money supply to bail these bitches out….and that only momentarily….because government spending has rottted the foundations of our society.

http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110711/tsx-stocks-debt-us-europe-110711/20110711?hub=TorontoNewHome

With the inflation that all that ‘new money’ will spur you can count on many ‘ real estate millionaires’ lining up at the food bank because they don’t have enough income to pay for gas, vittles and lard.

Taxes will be going up…locally and internationally….look forward to a global ‘bailout tax’…that is put in temporarily to stablize these idiot unions. As stated in the article Italy is currently at 120% of debt/gdp………………well giddee-up…so is Canada…..UK is 140%, The US is 150% and Japan is 200!!!!!!!!!. You don’t have to be a genius to understand that Canada can’t make payments on its debt when GDP growth is under 2%.

‘F’ and Markey mark will raise taxes instead of cutting costs in order to cement the new throne. The money has to come from somewhere. Canada is already paying its debt with money it prints itself and pays the money to the money it owes itself…..but that shell game can’t work in isolation…………the plan is doomed and the best that can happen for the Cons are that the citiens are so stupid that they will allow the can to be kicked down the road as long as ‘things’……’seem’….stable.

But if you think costs are high today…..just wait.

#150 fancy_pants on 07.11.11 at 2:30 pm

for all the passionate bears…
start the chant:
US default.. US default.. US default…

that’s the only way you’ll see rates rise here

#151 robert in london on 07.11.11 at 2:37 pm

Speaking of unloved, forget the fancy shite. I can stand in my driveway and see four ‘unloved’ and supposedly affordable (asking 180-200K ) homes that have been languishing on the market from four months to a year. I don’t know much about these dumbass realtors but anyone who lets a house sit for six months at 209,999 and then drops the price to 199,999 needs to find a new line of work. This same house has now sat ‘unloved’ for four more months. It’s sad but I can remember buying three times the house for half the price 25 years ago. Oh and the ownership anchor has long since been cut loose by this rolling stone.

#152 KOOCHI on 07.11.11 at 2:39 pm

Nice house.. But I am too young to retire, maybe I will consider it in another 30 years. Would it drop to 200K?

#153 disciple on 07.11.11 at 2:42 pm

Planned obsolescence, one of the models of insanity that underpins modern Western culture. Great documentary here on the lightbulb conspiracy:

http://tinyurl.com/65rvt8x

I hope the tinyurl thingy worked!

#154 Mr Magoo on 07.11.11 at 2:50 pm

Regarding oil and electric car battery patents, etc:
http://c4ss.org/content/2570

#155 Gerge on 07.11.11 at 2:52 pm

Re #62
I’m not looking for a few years, but some of the people from the island posting on this blog don’t understand the drivers for Qualicum and Parskville. Most of the people I’ve met, family friends, are well-healed retirees- doctors, lawyers, business people, people with solid pensions from schools etc. These people already own their homes and won’t move if the market drops, because most would take the island over anywhere in Ontario. There is not much of an economy in Qualicum and Parksville, so it is the place to go when you are retired and have money. Nanaimo, however is drastically different. If you think Vancouver will tank….

#156 disciple on 07.11.11 at 2:53 pm

Shocking genocide right here in Canada:

http://tinyurl.com/ndfxcx

But there are no things as conspiracies, right? (Not if you turn off your brain).

#157 GtaGuy on 07.11.11 at 3:15 pm

For my morning laugh I listened to Lloyd Robertson on CTV apparently trying to convince everyone there is no evidence of a housing bubble in canada even though in the last few weeks we have been hearing everywhere about prices peeking. He was referring to Vancouver real estate.

So while housing is climbing MSM feels there is no bubble. When housing prices has peeked no housing bubble. Even when housing prices have dropped in many cdn areas still no housing bubble.

My take… after about 2 years later of flat or falling housing prices nationwide I guess they start talking about the housing bubble popping.

Same like their take on the recession.

Absolutely disgusting !

About the only thing they bother to report which is the truth is the release date for the upcoming Harry Potter movie or the release date for your favorite Apple gadget.

#158 GTA Girl on 07.11.11 at 3:16 pm

The fellow fixing the interlock on my driveway owns a home on a golf course nearby. A $1.8 mil house. He’s not just owner of company but the labour too. Talking how he leveraged to buy it. How it’s going to be $3mill soon.

Yet there are now 8 homes in my immediate area. 300 ft lots. McMansions. Majority have been on market for 10 weeks. 6 of 8 are now down to asking $1.2. No bites

I don’t have the heart to tell the guy that his new build won’t see his buying price ever increase. What with his patio sized lot. No sidewalks and poor construction. He got taken.

#159 betamax on 07.11.11 at 3:16 pm

#114 smoking man: ” Now BOC just did a survey from employeers they are up beat about future hiring.”

Too bad they’re not “up beat” about hiring right now.

Jesus, a poll of business owners and they’re overtly optimistic about the future — what a shocker. What’s next, a poll of gambling addicts asking if they feel lucky?

I guess the US tanking, Europe imploding and China slowing down all are somehow good for Canada’s future hiring. Can’t wait to see how that works.

#160 Mr. Plow on 07.11.11 at 3:23 pm

#98 Junius

I agree, what a lot of people need to realize is that most who come here look at homes as an investment. So when they are judging other people’s decisions they judge them with the same criteria. i.e., how good of an investment it is.

But most people out there make their home buying decisions based on wants and emotion but they call it an investment, not knowing what real estate investment truly is.

Therefore, your guy probably did feel proud, and likely knew nothing of what you were telling him 6 months ago cause he didn’t look at it as a true investment.

If it falls hard he will be screwed (likely) or at least locked into the place. Or if it increases and he sells he will feel like a genius. Either way, someone will be left holding the bag when the increases stop.

#161 Imstupid on 07.11.11 at 3:29 pm

Hi Garth and others I need advise.

Just had both my cars broken into yesterday night. Went into locked garage and stole I’d credit cards and cash($200). I know I’m an idiot for leaving it their. My problem is as follows:

I no longer like neighborhood, I live in down town Toronto. I own the home value 600k I want to sell and buy in a better part of city or just outside city. The problem is that I know homes will correct and will overpay if I buy now but will also sell for more than what I will get later. Is my insecurity (having just been robbed for the 5th time) clouding my judgement? I have an income of 150-200k and 200k savings and I’m 31 so retirement is not even an issue yet. I know I will pay more for a new home as I am going on pure emotion. What should I do I dont like the area anymore. Do I stay put and feel insecure. Do I move to more expensive home and blow my savings knowing I’m throwing money away but get security back? I’m stuck what would everyone here do if they were in my shoes?

#162 Mr. Plow on 07.11.11 at 3:39 pm

#116 maxx

Yes cause realtors set the sell prices, not sellers and the buyers willing to pay them.

It is a grand conspiracy!

#163 akasje on 07.11.11 at 4:20 pm

Re: # 32 Point Grey house

I can’t believe I see that house on this site! This house was listed for just over $2.25M in August 2010. There was one open house weekend and it sold within a week. I don’t know the selling price.

It’s a decent house, as being a curious neighbour (we live on the same side of the street and just a few houses down), we went to the open house. Nothing special, but not a dump. Not as nice as the house we rent just a few meters away (and for about the third of the cost!).

Not a time to buy in Point Grey. Oh yes, the family that bought it is Asian and they appear to be moving to another house about a block away.

#164 Aussie Roy on 07.11.11 at 4:29 pm

debtified on 07.11.11 at 10:08 am

Would you believe most still dont see what is clearly happening in a number of places across Australia.

Most people still have no idea let alone acknowledge we have a house price bubble.

People lose their minds in the herd (BPOE,etc) and only regain their sanity one at a time. Clearly the sanity is growing but there is a long way to go yet.

Glad you enjoy the Aussie updates. I very much enjoy the comments here and of course Garths daily slap of reality to the delusional.

#165 Junius on 07.11.11 at 4:51 pm

#131 Mr. Plow,

I agree with your comments. However I think the key is that the emotional nature of the Re: situation won out yet again over any hard core analysis.

The atmosphere in Vancouver is just so toxic it is hard not to breathe in the bad air. Of course, this environment can and will change over the next few years. However it continues to trap young people into thinking they need to climb on the property ladder as soon as possible AND if they don’t they are not worthy.

#166 Junius on 07.11.11 at 4:53 pm

#157 Aussie Roy,

I love your posts as well. The similarities between Australia and Canada are just so fascinating.

#167 American Werewolf on 07.11.11 at 5:48 pm

>Tim on 07.10.11 at 9:39 pm
“I’m convinced the market will tank, but I doubt Qualicum and Parksville will go much lower. They are primarily retirement town”

Yes, “its different here”. Nevermind those retirement communities down south that went to hell. One of which I was trapped in trying to sell my view beach house.

Here is the thing…when people can’t sell their dig in a city for 5X what they paid and pack up to the island, they can’t support the market. Vacation rental/retirement markets are as vulnerable as any other because they depend on an influx of money coming from elsewhere (and if “elsewhere” doesn’t perform, you are SOL). In fact, they are often littered with their own dangers, because the local economies cannot sustain the home prices whatsoever.

Qualicum Beach has a joke of an economy. You can’t even make a living wiping up old people. Almost every young family in oceanside has one parent earning a living in Comox, Nanaimo or northern BC. Other than that, your best bet is to land a gig at a grocery store. That is no economy, and a town without an economy–with the hope that money just keeps flowing in–is a town headed down a dead-end street.

When the market dries up, people who *can* retire are going to have far better pickings than Qualicum Beach at reasonable prices. And when the next old guy down the street needs to sell his home immediately in order to go into a nursing home, he will be between a rock and a hard place.

The last thing we need at this place is more “it can’t happen here” blindness, especially pertaining to an area that generates no wealth and has a meager household income compared to the average price of real estate.

#168 Hoof - Hearted on 07.11.11 at 5:53 pm

Given modern technology………in combination with Soylent Green……..”high end property”…aka waterfront etc…….. can be resolved via “Hi -Defintiion HOLOGRAMS”

Example:

We recall visitingk ” stubble jumper ” relatives….aka any homo- erectus sapiens EAST of Rockies………and their bedroom with ” floor – 2 – ceiling ” wallpaper mural nice pastoral lake scene.

( as opposed to usual bovine- intercourse )

Aka …one does NOT need to pay a premium for waterfront “view”…cheaper options are available…

#169 Tim on 07.11.11 at 5:54 pm

considering they can make crude oil in about 30 minutes in a lab with some decaying plant matter I would suggest that peak oil is still a theory

#170 Junius on 07.11.11 at 5:54 pm

#136 Disciple,

Why don’t you apply Occam’s Razor to your “Peak Oil” conspiracy theory?

Which is more likely?

1) Peak Oil is hoax theory designed to scare us into believing……there are NOT billions of barrels of oil available under the oceans of the world. (Still don’t get the motivation)

2) A finite resource is within decades of being used up as it is over consumed by an energy starved planet. Meanwhile the Oil Industry spreads false theories about so-called “Peak Oil” so as to prevent society from dealing with its addiction problem by lowering consumption and investing in alternatives. All so it can charge heavily right up to the last drop.

I think Occam’s Razor says we go with #2.

#171 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 07.11.11 at 6:02 pm

BELLWETHERS, CANARIES, MINESHAFTS!

…AND A MOMENT FOR REMEMBRANCE…

What a day for market bears and the other widely-assorted doomers and gloomers.

Whether it’s Euro bankers, Wall Street crooks, DC insiders, cable TV talking head Nancy Grace, it’s all good! Like, I mean ALL GOOD!

First off, markets all ended very badly today. Tomorrow will either be more of the same, or else the pump-team will get together tonight and finagle up the Dow futures into positive territory for tomorrow and fool “The Folks” into buying more stocks tomorrow!

J.H. Kunstler’s latest offering of this date lets loose on the State of the Union, but first Europe:

“…The whole Mediterranean rim is about to return to the living standard of about 1830. They could be so pissed off, they’ll eat the very tourists who amount to their last remaining revenue stream. Meanwhile, I don’t see how all the other banks survive this evolving cataclysm.

…This is a very gnarly moment of (American) history. We are turning a page in the grand fiction of what money is and whether we are capable of governing ourselves…

…Have you heard enough yet about Casey and Little Caylee? Do you need to know what Juror X had for breakfast that dark day when the verdict was delivered? Are you feeling so bad about yourself and your nation that you, too, need a paddling from Nancy Grace? O land of seething woman attorneys, we are a wicked people who deserve to be punished…!

Nancy, other vaccuumed MSM talking heads, and pols everywhere, it’s wall-to-wall media-driven fluff and nausea for anyone who actually cares what’s going on OUT THERE! So, whatever needs doing to save the Empire from utter implosion is NOT BEING DONE.

AND THEN THERE’S REAL ESTATE!

The last-wall-of-worry left standing will be Canada’s vaunted real estate industry fronted by silly little property shills and shysters, promoting the by-now yawners of granite, steel and expoxy glue. There is STILL hope for a proper collapse in the City by the edge of the Rainforest!

PASSING OF A NOTABLE BRITISH COLUMBIAN

Gary Bannerman died over the weekend in the Vancouver.

He was an amazing individual to work with. I had that privilege in the early 1970s where, as a young reporter at CKNW in Vancouver, I joined the “Investigators” radio program headed up by Bannerman, the replacement for the legendary radio man Jack Webster who had left the Tog Dog for another radio station in the same market.

With Mr. Webster forever “haunting” our every on-air move, Gary, and his main producer Shirley Stocker, aided by a disparate group of broadcaster-pilgrims forged a style of information radio that is now practised daily by Bill Good, Mike Smith and other vets at that station.

Gary had his moods and his flare-ups. He also had a sense of humor, and command of the English language, coupled with his formidable intellect resulted in some interesting programming and off-air the airing of issues, differences and such! Good times!

He also sipped more fingers of Scotch on any given afternoon, between programs downstairs from the studios, at the Georgia Hotel bar that the waiters and bar keeps must have felt they were living in nirvana!

Gary also smoked and ate all the wrong foods, which eventually must have accounted for health problems that likely helped to end his radio career.

Gary Bannerman, an import from New Brunswick, left indelibly his imprimt on BC and those he worked with.
Wherever you are Gary, take care. God Bless.

#172 Mr. Reality on 07.11.11 at 6:03 pm

“#127 Mikey the Realtor on 07.11.11 at 12:38 pm
up we go folks!

housing starts soar, anyone that bought in the last 2 months picked up a sweet deal, the fence sitters are being priced out as we speak.”

The only thing a realtor is good for is a laugh……..and feeding on people’s emotion to push them into the worst financial decision a person can make. Buying at a market top. That three month course should be replaced with an IQ test and a lesson on finances.

Your day will come, and us fence sitters will be laughing at all the unemployed realestate agents who diserve the inevitability of this market trend.

Mr. R.

#173 Timing is Everything on 07.11.11 at 6:04 pm

wrt abiogenic petroleum. There’s methane around Uranus. Is this proof of the formation of hydrocarbons without biology?

#174 Smoking Man on 07.11.11 at 6:05 pm

.#135 CREDIT running OUT!!!! on 07.11.11 at 1:12 pm
I agree with everything you say but the timing, crash will not come till 2014, in the mean time expect some nice returns on Real estate.

#161 betamax on 07.11.11 at 3:16 pm
Bad news in world markets is bad news for bubble heads and is good news for home owners. Means Carney can’t budge on the overnight rate, and means the bond market will stay hot forcing yields lower that feed mortgages.

Sorry Man but we have 12 more months of a hot real estate market, anless of cource the JOBS market in Canada and the US take off, more jobs means higher rates the prick that will burst the bubble.

#175 Smoking Man on 07.11.11 at 6:11 pm

I love how you bubble heads always compare the US housing market to ours….

You guys ever follow Bermuda real estate, Singapore real estate.

Those markets go in one direction and that is UP, UP and UP………

Why should we be any different, just because many of you are highly schooled, doesn’t mean you are smart, just more obedient. Money is made by risk taking, greater the risk bigger chance of bigger profit or loss. But been reading these post long enough to know that most of you would not risk one dime on anything.

Balk Balk Balk.

#176 ETown on 07.11.11 at 6:14 pm

A Home is a Lousy Investment – Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304259304576375323652341888.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_RIGHTTopCarousel_1

#177 Bottoms_Up on 07.11.11 at 6:15 pm

#158 disciple on 07.11.11 at 2:53 pm
—————————————-
So the government is committing genocide against Indians?. (You really should stay away from the microbial/vaccine field as it is clear you have no clue about this stuff)

Body bags were sent to reserves because the Indians were dying of swine flu (I believe they were a sensitive subpopulation), not because they were dying of the tamiflu vaccine.

It’s interesting that the author of that article you posted is a small film maker trying to sell movies eh?

You know, I was starting to respect your posts and then you reverted again to the dark side.

Here’s where you can get the product monograph on tamiflu:

http://webprod3.hc-sc.gc.ca/dpd-bdpp/info.do?lang=eng&code=79011

If you’d like to discuss the actual scientific facts of this vaccine (it’s safety/efficacy) I’d be happy to do so with you (please send the non-kooky disciple for this discussion).

#178 GregW, Oakville on 07.11.11 at 7:02 pm

Hi #158 disciple, Thanks for the news about the deaths after getting vaccine. Any death is Very sad.

Have you see Bill Gates talking about vaccines and population control yet?
Try YouTube, type ” Bill Gates Vaccine population control ”

Also have a look at the show on YouTube ” In Lies We Trust “. There is an admission to the source of AIDS and other doings that I can only describe as ‘evil’.

Did you hear that the Harper Government is going to boycotting the talks on arms reduction just because North Korea is chairing the talks.
Lost of profit in the ‘military industrial complex’ I guess, and Canada had lost of weapons manufacturers. Some might not want real peace and an end to wars breaking out, maybe??

For a bit of hopeful news today. Toronto might stop water fluoridation to save money. I guess there no need to mention it’s actually toxic along with some arsenic and lead for good measure being added to people drinking water supply!
The “ Fluoride Action Network ” has more good science based information, if you care to look. I no longer drink and cook with my areas fluoridated water. The ‘Brita’ water filters do not remove it and boil it only make it more concentrated. RO fliters can remove most of it. But it shouldn’t be added in the first place!! But I guess you’d need to know were to find the original science to know that it’s toxic.
(Sorry Garth. Since the Toronto cost saving thing was in the news today, I let the ‘f’ word slip out.)

#179 T.O. Bubble Boy on 07.11.11 at 7:03 pm

@ #163 Imstupid:

Sell, and Rent in your desired GTA burb while the meltdown happens (maybe even a place with a garage).

#180 Daisy Mae on 07.11.11 at 7:31 pm

Remember ‘rent to own’?

It’s back in Kelowna.

#181 45north on 07.11.11 at 7:33 pm

Imstupid: I want to sell and buy in a better part of city or just outside city.

we all get to choose our own names here, first thing is to get a better self image. Just try to survive, sell your condo/house/whatever find a place near the subway and rent.

#182 salonist on 07.11.11 at 7:45 pm

oakville is different.
there are more private schools here, than all the timmy’s franchises in town times 3.
bimmers are a thing of the past,used to be three in my neighborhood,now it’s range rovers and land rovers.range rover last year sold 1200 vehicles.oakville placed a large order.
the kids at primary schools are driven and or escorted to school.in the morning,picked up and dropped off for lunch.picked up after school.the vehicles for most parts are expensive suv’s.
as my fiend said,they mostly feel entitled in oakville.
nannies are less expensive than daycare.there are quite a few here as well,not only for the little ones.
i bet your nanny is already planned for you,garth.
ps. they don’t drive harleys in oakville.

#183 Imstupid on 07.11.11 at 7:47 pm

They were in the garage. Busted the door and looted.

#184 Observer on 07.11.11 at 7:52 pm

Love the “everyone wants to live here” mantra. I live in a suburb of Vancouver – ” everyone wants to live here”. When I lived in the Okanagan- “Everyone wants to live here”. When I camp with family from Edmonton – they tell me “everyone wants to live there”.

It reminds me of the movie “The Incredibles”. Mom says “everyone is special” . Kid replies “If everyone is special that means nobody is special.

When a home costs 3 times as much in Richmond as it does in San Diego – something is wrong.Have you been to Richmond?

I believe this is Garth’s analogy: ” Would you pay for your house what you would expect to sell it for?”
I know I wouldn’t.

#185 Tim on 07.11.11 at 7:55 pm

Re American Werewolf
You don’t quite get it. Qualicum is a desireable retirement town with mild winters and ocean and mountain views. The economy is driven by retirees and the town is one of the few that actually balanced their budget. Many retirees living their wouldn’t move if there houses dropped by 50 percent. To compare Qualicum with anywhere in Florida is a silly comparison. Many retirees here are much more well off, they haven’t speculated on housing, they buy with a lot more than 10 percent down, and unlike many in Florida, or many other places in America for that matter, these people have savings, they have a better social safety net, which is not under attack by the Tea Party wack jobs and didn’t get sucked in with toxic mortgages.

#186 jess on 07.11.11 at 8:09 pm

The Latsis family fortune

Banking’s bond holders and the double standards over repaying debt
David Malone: Our wealth is disappearing because we are paying off not only our debts but those of bankers and their bond holders

#187 Cookie Monster on 07.11.11 at 8:17 pm

I’m in debt up to my balls, everyday feels like I’m wading into a cold lake. I don’t like it! I need warm credit, warm and fuzzy, why does it have to be cold, hard and wet. Come on MBNA show me the love!

#188 Utopia on 07.11.11 at 8:20 pm

#48 Mr. Reality

“With China having issues and the Euro debt crisis picking up steam. The perfect storm for Canada has begun. Get your money into safe investments and throw a bunch into shorting the S&P 500 and the TSX.”
———————————————

Don’t get too excited yet. The perfect storm is not here yet. There is politics behind the market moves you are seeing now. Consider that QE has recently ended and Mr Bernanke is in a tough corner. Treasuries still need a market.

Do you not think it is coincidental that so many European countries have recently had debt downgrades and that the press is picking up so many “bad news” stories out of China? That the Euro is under threat and the dollar again a safe bet?

The outcome of course is a flight to security and thus to Treasuries and bonds. Perfect timing. Meanwhile I am getting my predicted .77 USD that I discussed last week. I was sadly wrong on the Loonie but correct that commodities would descend.

Expect that to continue.

There is little to really be fearful of. This is merely a corrective phase. I expect a good earnings season and stocks should eventually bounce nicely off the lows we are now seeing. It presents a buying opportunity over the coming month in my opinion.

A little fear for commodity speculators is a healthy thing right now and I am actually pleased to see the excessive buying being corrected down. The so-called death cross on the TSX does not concern me at all. It is not always a bearish sign.

All in all, we do want to see the froth blown off resources for everyone’s benefit. Oil, corn and wheat in particular are a major concern that weighs on global stability as costs have spiraled out of control. Food and energy costs are drivers behind the riots in the Middle East and North Africa and one of the reasons for excessive inflation in China.

I genuinely hope the current corrective trend will hold and can deflate the inflation worry that has only brought hardship to people all over the world.

Let’s not forget either that inflationary influences can only eventually lead to rising interest rates and that is something we cannot yet cope with. A stronger US dollar meanwhile can benefit Canadian manufacturers and enhance our competitiveness there. For Americans, buying power is growing again.

Above all though, lower energy costs are tremendously stimulative in themselves and will benefit most of our biggest companies as well as easing the burden on consumers.

I therefore still continue to anticipate positive earnings results for next quarter. Like I said, I believe a buying opportunity is arising.

Just my opinion.

#189 Utopia on 07.11.11 at 8:52 pm

#182 Daisy Mae said…..

“Remember ‘rent to own’? It’s back in Kelowna”.
—————————————————-
You ain’t seen nuthin yet Daisy.

I can clearly recall after the BC housing bust in the 80’s that many people were unable to sell their homes. Credit was really tight for buyers, interest rates crazy, risk high.

Sellers were getting desperate. So what did they do?

Well, they turned into banks that is what happened. Buyers who could not qualify on conventional terms finally came eye to eye with sellers who could not make a much needed sale any other way.

Prices fell.

Owners financed perfect strangers on flexible terms and credit markets got short circuited by individuals accepting risks that banks would no longer accept.

For many, it was a marriage of convenience and needs. It allowed buyers and sellers to meet eye to eye and everyone had a much more personal stake in the game. Suddenly, you knew your lenders first name and he might actually hold the keys to your front door to boot.

So the high risk lending shifted to Vendors while the banks skimmed the cream of the most qualified. Everyone benefited though and the system functioned as it was meant too. Even business and shops were then selling on vendor financed arrangements. Training was included and you could get into business with very little cash in those days.

This is a whole new world to people now. Today, few will consider private lending as they do not want to carry the risk of strangers. That will change in the future. As well, “rent to buy” will be on the upswing.

Good information on the process is invaluable to those unable to close deals with bank financing but still wishing to participate in the housing market. Legal aspects of private contacts especially, setting terms within the law and understanding the process for fairness is really important.

Perhaps we will soon see some good material on the subject as credit again tightens. It is really about entrepreneurialism at its heart. Some have the knack for making a deal in life that banks would ordinarily just laugh at.

And they succeed.

#190 Timing is Everything on 07.11.11 at 8:59 pm

#169 American Werewolf – said “Almost every young family in oceanside has one parent earning a living in Comox, Nanaimo or northern BC.”

…And that’s exactly where they should move. Or not. It is their choice.

#191 disciple on 07.11.11 at 9:06 pm

#172…Junius, my intention is not to get the last word, but I have already pre-empted your Occam’s Razor argument, that’s why I explained the limitations of it in my previous post. I get this argument all the time, and while it is valid, it is most often non-cogent; in other words, it does not hold up to scrutiny when more info is introduced into the equation.

#179…Bottomsup…don’t try to butter me up, even though we agree on some things. Vaccines are deadly biological weapons. All evidence that vaccines work are based on one scientific study…one…and it was seriously flawed. Previously, your response to me was a link to a govt website, for godsakes. I’m sure you didn’t appreciate the irony of that when my whole premise was that the govt is lying to you in the first place.

#192 disciple on 07.11.11 at 9:23 pm

Hey there, Greg-dubya…don’t worry, I have nicknames for everyone…

Yes, Bill Gates (not his real name, just like Christopher Columbus was a pseudo-nym), is diligently doing the bidding of the pale horse. Fluoride is a very nasty and abundant by-product of the manufacturing of everything from steel to paper, from computers to ovens, and it’s more profitable for the evil machine to dump it in our municipal water supplies than recycle it ethically. FluoriNe is the most reactive element, and its chemical analog fluoride is a known carcinogen as well as docility-promoter in humans (makes us dumber).

You can bet that your real rulers do not brush their teeth with monofluorophospate (rat poison).

#193 Killer Chicken or Imploding Boomer? on 07.11.11 at 9:43 pm

187 Tim – agreed. Not saying that prices cant correct (or for that matter “aren’t correcting”) but Pville/QB is
probably the most stable “economy” on the island – been
like that for decades.

#194 disciple on 07.11.11 at 9:44 pm

Bottoms_up threatens me to stay away from the microbial/vaccine field…what an amazing logical response, eh? Well, it’s not the first time. The top 100 or so experts in the field of biotechnology have all been “suicided” in the last ten years. Coincidence?
And then his/her link to the tamiflu vaccine doesn’t even work.

I happen to know what tamiflu is. It is simply a formulation based on ancient Chinese secrets, in this case, the five-pointed star anise. In traditional Chinese medicine, star anise is prescribed as a digestive aid and to help cure colic in babies. More recently, Shikimic Acid, extracted from star anise, is one of the chief ingredients in the antiviral Tamiflu drug used to fight avian influenza.

It is this ingredient that fights the effects of the flu, not the denatured flu in the concoction. This is what you do: take charge of your own health. Cook some soup with star anise, like it’s been done for thousands of years. Or, get some star anise, soak it in some vodka, drink, and be well. No trillion dollar vaccine industry needed, thank you very much.

#195 Mr Buyer on 07.11.11 at 11:13 pm

ABSTRACT: VACCINES ARE GOOD. YES SOME VACCINES WREAK HAVOC ON A SMALL PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION, SOMETIMES WITH DEVASTATING EFFECT, BUT THAT HORROR IS CONSIDERABLELY LESS THAN THE DEVASTATION BROUGHT BY THE DISEASES VACCINES CONFER TOTAL OR PARTIAL IMMUNITY TO. WE CAN CERTAINLY DO MORE AND I WOULD LIKE TO SEE ARMIES OF CANADIAN MOLECULAR BIOLOGISTS ILLUMINATING EVERY ASPECT OF BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES THEY CAN. NOT FOR DIRECT ECONOMIC PROFIT. SIMPLY BECAUSE IT SHOULD BE DONE. IF YOU WANT TO CREATE RESERVOIRS IN WHICH DEADLY INFECTIONS CAN PERSIST IN LARGER POPULATIONS, DISCOURAGING THE USE OF VACCINES IS ONE WAY OF GOING ABOUT IT.
To the Vaccines are weapons advocates…
What EXACTLY is the molecular dynamics behind a vaccine’s proported deleterious effects (what protien, what is the exact impact upon expression patterns, what dosage level, what biochemical pathway, what exactly, precisely)? Citing well done (if we can even assume that) population surveys only raises a question not a conclusion (as we all know corelation does not imply causation and numbers can be massaged, as well as presented or not to serve an end). What I want is the actual molecular mechanism by which vaccines are proportedly killing us enmasse. Hard science is continually discredited by those who never bothered to sit through even a biological calculus course (it is actually a mind altering experience, more so than any summer of hard drinking). Published papers, with materials, methods and results, not just discussion (you can even skip the published part, just experiments with materials, methods and results would be enough for now to add real weight to the assessments of the deadly nature of vaccines outweighing their bennefits). I really want to know.

#196 Mr Buyer on 07.11.11 at 11:44 pm

There was a boy a few years older than myself in our neighborhood that was running around one summer and in braces the next summer. POLIO. Sadly some people have contracted POLIO from the vaccine (I do not know if that was the case for this boy, but it is doubtful) but far more have escaped the ravages of the virus thanks to the vaccine. I remember none of us wanting to go swimming at the local swimming hole because of the yellow layer of ‘pollen’ that we thought was the carrier of polio (POLLEN sounds a little like POLIO to a young child). We live in a very different world now and expectations are rightly or wrongly much higher. I will be astonished if a vaccine is ever developed that causes no adverse reactions in a population but that is certainly a goal we should be shooting for. ARMIES of MOLECULAR BIOLOGISTS could move us a long way down that road. We need to toss aside the constraints put upon us and get to work. We have only just begun. There is much to be elucidated.

#197 This is wonderland on 07.12.11 at 2:01 am

#184 salonist

Yup, they drive Ducati’s and BMW’s.

Most of these people, are expanding allot of energy and money to keep up appearances.

Neighbours wife drives a brand new Mercedes SUV she gets a new one every 3 years, he drives a used Chrysler Caravan the house is a mess. Paint chipping grass is over grown; weeds are larger than the bushes. Kids are enrolled in a ton of sports and are never denied a thing. Once a year he hires a large bin, has it delivered to the front of his house and starts the big clean for the year. I have never seen so much junk and I mean shopping channel junk come out of one house in my life. But who cares they have a Mercedes……

http://consumerist.com/2009/11/middle-class-shoplifting-to-keep-up-appearances.html

#198 betamax on 07.12.11 at 4:10 am

#157 Gerge: “These people already own their homes and won’t move if the market drops”

#187 Tim: “Many retirees living their wouldn’t move if there houses dropped by 50 percent.”

You think everybody in Florida is a deadbeat? There’s scads of rich retirees there. However, prices are set by those that sell, not those that don’t. Prices will crash in Parksville/Qualicum regardless. It’s not different.

#199 disciple on 07.12.11 at 12:06 pm

Mr. Buyer…if you truly want to know (I have my doubts), do your own due diligence. I can hand it to you on a silver platter, but I won’t. I’ve probably forgotten more on this topic than I can ever convey to a closed mind like yours. Good luck.

I’ve already posted what is contained in vaccines in general as excipients. I was once a formulation scientist when I worked for the man. I got out of Big Pharma because of my ethical convictions even though it meant I would have to seek large bonuses elsewhere. And I did. I now serve humanity rather than helping to enslave it by promoting ignorance, like many on this blog do.
Thank you and have a nice day.