The warning

Could it be the feds are desperately trying to deflate the housing market before it blows up an unsuspecting middle class? Let’s turn this rock over and see what crawls.

This Friday, quietly, the door shuts on cash-heavy, house-horny Mainland Chinese. Citizenship and Immigration Canada is abruptly capping the Federal Immigrant Investor Program, setting a minuscule target of just 700 for the next year – a quota expected to be filled in just days.

Until now, applicants with a net worth of $1.6 million, previous business experience, and enough cash to buy a crack shack in Vancouver stood a good chance of gaining entry. And anyone living in Richmond in the west or Richmond Hill in the east, knows the results. The reason given by Ottawa: to reduce the number of economic applications. The real reason: gasbag.

On Sunday that little devil F decided to spoil the day of anyone who thinks Ottawa has a deliberate policy of cheap mortgage rates just so they can buy a honking big house. “Interest rates,” he told CTV, “have nowhere to go but up.”

And to make it clearer: “We are cautioning people not to assume too much long-term debt on the assumption that interest rates will stay as low as they are – because they won’t. We want to make sure Canadian households plan ahead and know, if they renew a mortgage in the next several years, it’s likely that the interest rate will be higher.”

When will this happen? F probably knows, but he ain’t saying. And when the inevitable comes, it will be from the lips of blog lurker Mark Carney. So the finance minister’s comments make perfect sense, coming just days after the Bank of Canada issued yet another warning that out of control household debt has the potential to torpedo the economy.

Of course, it was Riot Day when Carney traveled to Vancouver to talk about ‘extreme’ valuations in the real estate market. He made a point of saying our housing market has reach a similar point to that at which America imploded. And he added this turgid zinger: “With monetary policy continuing to be set to achieve the inflation target, our institutions should not be lulled into a false sense of security by current low rates. Similarly, households will need to be prudent in their borrowing, recognizing that over the life of a mortgage, interest rates will often be much higher.”

If you don’t know what he means, don’t bend over.

Hey, and here are the animals at Statistics Canada, also weighing into the scaremongering business. Just days ago StatsCan blamed “rock bottom” rates for turning us into mortgage crack addicts. Our collective debt has just clicked to new heights, so we now owe a buck and a half for every dollar we earn – and that’s the average. Just think about how your pathetic brother-in-law stacks up. Said the agency: “Canadian debt ratios are leaving their U.S. counterparts in the rear-view mirror, despite the repeated exhortations by domestic policymakers to rein in borrowing.”

And don’t forget that only 90 days ago the feds murdered the 35-year mortgage, which means home loans cost a little more to carry these days and virgins can afford a little less.

So, add it up. Fewer horny Asians. Rates going “nowhere but up.” Warnings from the finance minister and the central bank governor. Debt alarm bells in Ottawa. Tighter lending. Everything but state-sanctioned locusts.

But will it make a difference? Nah. Not a chance.

To prove it, here’s Charles, who make this blog comment while I was typing this:

I start reading this blog 2.5 years ago. Since then the house I wanted went up 30%. So in the event of an unlikely 20% price down, I would be still 10% up. Houses are still selling and I am behind this computer, outpriced. Time to accept things did not go the way you predicted.

See what I mean? This is Nortel all over again. It’s Bre-X. It’s LinkedIn.

Face it, most people have no patience, no insight and no discipline. They believe, at worst, house prices will dip a little, then resume an upward advance. Even though we live beside a country when 30% of citizens are underwater, house prices basically halved in five years and $5 trillion in equity vanished – a country just like ours – they learn nothing. A house they thought was too expensive for them 30% ago, now looks like a dish.

So, F can mouse on all he wants about higher rates. Carney can pontificate on the danger of debt. Ottawa can nibble at lending regs. And this pathetic blog can bleat without end.

But it’s not until you wake up one morning, roll over and see what you just did, that reality hits.

208 comments ↓

#1 Ralph G on 06.26.11 at 8:52 pm

The latest (and shocking) Canadian total debt statistics:

http://www.bloggingtories.ca/forums/viewtopic.php?p=97522

If the link does not work, enter the first sentence of my post into google to get to the information

#2 Bottoms_Up on 06.26.11 at 8:55 pm

Our neighbours just sold their (entry-level) house in Ottawa (300k+ range) — had to drop their original price by 4% to generate serious interest.

I think the new mortgage qualification rules are having some impact, but that ‘black swan’ event for the Canadian housing market remains elusive…

#3 Ralph G on 06.26.11 at 8:56 pm

Garth. I thought the mortgage rules in this country got tightened up last spring?

“There is a still a 100% mortgage available … til end of next week only! Actually it is a mortgage that sees the financial institution give back 5.5% cash back. (You need 5% down … so effectively you put in no cash and have enough money to pay lawyer as well). As a first time buyer you also do not pay land transfer tax … so you TRULY have no money down!!!”

http://www2.jurock.com/hotproperty/tips.asp

#4 American Werewolf on 06.26.11 at 8:56 pm

“Could it be the feds are desperately trying to deflate the housing market before it blows up an unsuspecting middle class?”

No. They are just trying to shift future blame by putting it on record how “concerned” they are. Greenspan did the same ol crap.

#5 debtified on 06.26.11 at 8:57 pm

It’s too late.

#6 American Werewolf on 06.26.11 at 8:58 pm

One last thing….when they are in this mode, its a good sign that the party is just about over. Good luck to all the homeowners.

#7 USA View from the midwest on 06.26.11 at 8:59 pm

As Red Foxx used to say clutching his chest, “This is the BIG one, Elizabeth I’m coming”… too few would remember that moronic comedy show from the 70’s but you get the point.

So, here in the US it would NEVER happen either… ‘cept it DID. Like 5 years ago the first warnings, then 2008 total meltdown, Banks, then RE and it is still falling. TGime to buy here, yeah, right…. S

#8 vatoDETH on 06.26.11 at 9:04 pm

http://www.equitymaster.com/images/2010/11082010-different-phases-in-a-bubble-equitymaster.gif

#9 Peter Pan on 06.26.11 at 9:10 pm

Charles is a perfect example of Canadians’ lack of numerical skills…

“Since then the house I wanted went up 30%. So in the event of an unlikely 20% price down, I would be still 10% up”

No, you’d only be up 4%… not 10%…

30% increase on 100K means value goes to 130K

20% loss on 130K is 26K…

130K – 26K = 104K

104K is only 4% higher than 100K.

#10 2deep on 06.26.11 at 9:11 pm

Conexus Credit Union in Southern Sask just sold off their Century 21 “franchise”. I think that is pretty foretelling that the banks know the game is over and are selling while they are ahead.

#11 old gringo on 06.26.11 at 9:13 pm

great view!

#12 Thetruth on 06.26.11 at 9:15 pm

The horses left the barn long time ago.

The Federal Immigrant Investor program has an 8-9 year backlog. That is why they reduced the annual quota so the list won’t grown any longer. these 700 will arrive in 8-9 years time. Expect HAM for at least 8-9 years more.

#13 Pete in Barrie on 06.26.11 at 9:16 pm

| have not seen any news on Garth’s point about the government cutting the number of people who can be accepted through the Federal Immigration Investment Program. If this is true this could be the impetus needed to bring some sanity to the Vancouver housing market.

On a side note, I picked up Michael Lewis’s book The Big Short. So much of what he mentioned that was happening in the States in ’05 and ’06 sounds eerily familiar to what the housing bulls are saying here: “It’s different this time”, “Buy now or be priced out forever”. I guess I should maybe read on of Garth’s books next:)

It should be an interesting last half of 2011 – the start of Canada’s own housing collapse.

#14 TurnerNation on 06.26.11 at 9:18 pm

Garth, Facebook is for friending hot girls, not soon-to-be-ex Premiers. ;)

#15 itanic on 06.26.11 at 9:20 pm

Charles’ math is incorrect; if a house goes up 30% and then down 20%, you would only be up 4%, not 10%.

1.3 * 0.8 = 1.04

After realtor commissions and closing costs, you’d pretty much be at par, except you’d likely be making mortgage payments much higher than the cost of rent during that time.

#16 End of the Line on 06.26.11 at 9:20 pm

One big crime begets many new smaller ones. A story out of China shows many hundred billions stolen by Chinese Communist party pals with a lot of expatriate lucre heading to Canada and other soft countries. Soft on crime anyway. A lot of it squirrled away to buy Rchamond, or “Gold Mountain” real estate. Go figure.

Thats why ‘wealth visas’ were chocked backed to a few hundred. The gig is over.

#17 Medic on 06.26.11 at 9:21 pm

Charles the blogger has two terrible qualities: His numeracy skills are poor and he wants others to tell him what to do. This combination will result in Charles getting fleeced over and over again for the rest of his life.

#18 Cognizant on 06.26.11 at 9:22 pm

Garth could you please do a little tutorial on calculating percentages so readers like Charles can see that +30% -20% = +4%. TIA

#19 HP on 06.26.11 at 9:22 pm

First

#20 LJ on 06.26.11 at 9:24 pm

Think of it this way. If a home were a stock listed on an exchange and it was overpriced (LinkedIn, RIM or Nortel in its day) would you buy it hoping that it would go further into nosebleed territory? NO. Would you buy it when it kept going with no fundamental reason for keeping on rising? NO, you would sell and wait for it to come back down to earth.

Then again, most people like buying at the top and selling at the bottom. “Investors” must be suckers for punishment.

#21 Mark on 06.26.11 at 9:25 pm

“Buck up! The work is out there, stop acting like a victim.

When an entire graduating class (and probably an entire decade of engineering graduates in EE) are underemployed/unemployed, this is rather insulting. The work is “not” out there. Do you really think hundreds of people get it wrong?

Do you really think that Nortel (with 100k workers, many of whom were engineers) could dissappear without any ramifications? That thousands of engineering jobs in Canada could be offshored without hurting Canadian talent?

#22 I pity the fool who drinks soy milk on 06.26.11 at 9:25 pm

I’m not one of the smart guys, I can rarely finish the crossword without some help. It’s blatantly obvious to me where housing is going. How can so many otherwise intelligent people get blindsided? Pure greed? Is it really that simple? A whole lotta cryin’ behind closed doors is coming.

#23 Chicken Little on 06.26.11 at 9:26 pm

We should all downsize our consumption for the good of the planet (and the life on it).

#24 Bankrupt in Brampton goes home on 06.26.11 at 9:27 pm

That’s right it’s starting where people who borrowed until they went bankrupt and then left Canada. Imagine hundreds of thousands of people leaving this stupid country in financial ruin all thanks to the socialist banker conservatives and Mark Carney who like to talk and talk but doing nothing. People will borrow until Canada is bankrupt. Is that their goal? I know many people who DO NOT CARE to go bankrupt. Word is many have walked away and left Canada. Canada is now in a bigger housing bubble then the US. Mark Carney needs to put interest rate at NORMAL 7% and socialist banker conservative F needs to remove the CHMC or have min downpayments of 15% and max 25 years. Then Home prices will fall back to 2001 and in the long run will be good for the economy. Right now the economy is finished with people maxed out on debt with intentions of paying it back. Brampton will show Canada how many will leave this country over night.

#25 Tim on 06.26.11 at 9:27 pm

THe west side of Vancouver has gone up 79% over five years, so your call of a 15% correction will put us at about where it was a year ago. Even if it grinds down slowly, it will never lose 79% of its value. Cities in the states like Seattle or San Fran have dropped no where near 79%

My guess of 15% is a national number. That could equal 50% in Vancouver. — Garth

#26 BROMANCE on 06.26.11 at 9:28 pm

I always hear about soft landings, but in 40 years have never actually seen one. And when you start hearing those words, put on your financial cup.

#27 Jsan on 06.26.11 at 9:31 pm

“I start reading this blog 2.5 years ago. Since then the house I wanted went up 30%. So in the event of an unlikely 20% price down, I would be still 10% up. Houses are still selling and I am behind this computer, outpriced. Time to accept things did not go the way you predicted.”

====================================

I have said it before, I will say it again. Bubbles are much easier to spot than most people think, especially those people who easily fall for the “It’s Different Here” or “It’s Different This Time”. What is considerably harder is pinpointing when they will Pop. But there is ALWAYS one thing that can be guaranteed, THEY WILL EVENTUALLY POP, all bubbles do!

I cannot tell you how many times in my young investing days back in 1999 that I warned friends that the Internet/Tech market Irrational Exuberance was eventually going to come crashing back to earth. I was about a year early and missed out on some gains but in the end did not lose a penny while a few “It’s Different This Time” friends lost it all.

#28 Jamaican_Gal on 06.26.11 at 9:36 pm

Fiiirrrrrsssst! time buyers really are screwed. It’s starting to unravel.

#29 Mark Carney the Joke on 06.26.11 at 9:37 pm

Hi mark Carney you do know EVERY person believes you will do NOTHING but talk! People laugh when I mention your name. Mark Carney you are a joke with Canadians and they will walk from the debt. Remeber 2008 when people walked away from their downpayments for condos/houses? Now we have much more product that was bought with borrowed money. People have gambled with free money and if they lose they will go bankrupt just like the US. Mark Carney you need to shut up and stop talking. No one in Canada cares what you have to say. What are you going to do Mark Carney ? Talk….LOL Keep talking Mark Carney

#30 TurnerNation on 06.26.11 at 9:40 pm

HAMburger?

METRO VANCOUVER — Vancouver billionaire David Ho has been charged with possessing a prohibited weapon while awaiting trial in Vancouver on eight criminal counts, including unlawfully confining a woman and possessing a loaded pistol.
Ho, 58, was recently charged with possessing a spring-loaded switchblade knife and breaching his bail conditions, which included a promise to keep the peace and be of good behaviour.
His latest charge stems from Feb. 12 in Richmond, when he was allegedly caught with a switchblade. His trial for that offence is scheduled for next year in Richmond provincial court.
Ho also faces trial on Oct. 11 this year, with a pre-trial conference set for July 15, in Vancouver provincial court on eight charges stemming from for an alleged incident that occurred on Dec. 28, 2008.
At the time Ho was charged, police alleged that the tycoon had contacted a woman over a telephone chat line who went to his five-bedroom mansion at 7190 Hudson St.
But when the woman tried to leave at about 4:45 a.m., Ho allegedly prevented her from leaving.
A violent struggle allegedly ensued and the woman called 911, but she didn’t know the address, police alleged. She managed to get away but fractured her ankle and suffered other minor injuries, police said.
Neighbours also called 911 after hearing her screams.
Ho, who owned the high-end dealership MCL Motor Cars until he sold it last year, and founded the now-defunct Harmony Airways airline., was later charged with unlawful confinement and possession of a loaded 9mm Glock pistol, which was illegally stored.
He also faces charges of possession of cocaine and marijuana. He has pleaded not guilty to the alleged offences.
Ho was born in China and is from one of the wealthiest families in Hong Kong: He is a scion of the Hong Kong Tobacco Co. fortune.
He holds passports to several countries and was in Shanghai when charged in relation to the alleged 2008 incident. He returned to Canada and was released on $100,000 bail.
His full name is Ting Kwok David Ho. He is a longtime Liberal supporter who has donated $100,000 to the provincial Liberals since 2005 and is a former member of the Vancouver police board.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Billionaire+faces+charges+while+awaiting+trial/4985308/story.html

#31 jay on 06.26.11 at 9:40 pm

thank you great post

#32 jay on 06.26.11 at 9:41 pm

great post ty very much

#33 firsssssst on 06.26.11 at 9:42 pm

could it be for real?

first, and I get to piss people off?

Be still, my beating heart!

#34 Joethebruce on 06.26.11 at 9:42 pm

First! I think. Maybe not……

#35 Rick Danger on 06.26.11 at 9:43 pm

Typical Fed…too little way too late.

#36 Ralph Cramdown on 06.26.11 at 9:45 pm

Here’s Carney: Flaherty is irresponsible, and it isn’t MY job to put a damper on housing as long as unemployment is high and core inflation is low. [I paraphrase]

Flaherty’s mumbling now, too, but it’s talk from one of the few who could take action.

But they only say it occasionally, and when they do it gets reported once the next day.

Meanwhile, RBC’s bragging about personal loans for prime +1/2 when everyone else is prime+1, and showing those commercials in which the first thing the young couple does after buying the house is throw a perfectly serviceable kitchen countertop into a dumpster. These ads are repeated hundreds of times. Advertising works.

#37 Phil on 06.26.11 at 9:46 pm

Garth, what was the previous limit on federal immigrant investors?

#38 cool on 06.26.11 at 9:48 pm

bwwaaahhhhhhhhhahahahahahahahahahah

#39 greeneyes on 06.26.11 at 9:49 pm

I decided today, after reading this blog for many days to finally weigh in. We sold our home 2.5 years ago, when we saw the writing on the wall. Our situation was a bit unusual in that we had some medical issues with one of our sons to deal with, and they are lifelong issues. We also bought a home while very stressed , and made an unwise decision. However, when we sold in 2009 that was rectified. We invested with a very savvy advisor ( Garth and co) and have done well. We have been renting for the time since the sale, and I just had to mention that after owning homes for over 38 years, renting is a treat! We are on a 40 acre parcel , unbelievably private.. we share the property with our wonderful landlords who live out of sight and view, and they love that we are ‘mature’ and pay the rent on time and care for the home and property. We hear frogs and deer and the lovely seasonal creek at night, currently a small waterfall lulls us to sleep,… It is truly heaven, for …. $850 a month. Yes we have no lease as they ( our landlords) know as do we,.. that leases aren’t really worth much. But goodwill between landlord and tennant is worth more. We sleep peacefully at night, don’t worry about our investment… and yes, this little bit of paradise feels like ‘home’ more so than any place I’ve ever lived.
Our friends and business associates keep asking us if we are going to buy….? Something about what we are doing unnerves them apparently.. and yet, … we live 15 minutes from our bustling small town city centre, and absolutely love where we are. So if you’re thinking of making a big change and renting…go for it. Its the best move we’ve ever made. We have a pension.. we paid for over many years … and a small draw from our investment , my husband is working part time at 60 and I just ‘retired.’ We are looking at life differently, and it’s awesome. Renting is not what I thought for so many years… Now I feel ‘wise.’ Thank you Garth for your blog and your wisdom.

#40 Mister Obvious on 06.26.11 at 10:00 pm

Charles needs to brush up on his math. A rise of 30% followed by a drop of 20% leaves him ahead a mere 4% on the original price. That will be swallowed up by commission and fees at closing.

#41 Aaron - Melbourne on 06.26.11 at 10:07 pm

http://www.theage.com.au/business/property/developers-court-overseas-buyers-amid-fears-of-greater-urban-sprawl-20110206-1aihd.html

Cranbourne local George Zhang, originally from China’s Guangdong province, purchased three new houses, a pizza shop and a convenience store in Melbourne in his quest for permanent residency.

”A lot of Chinese people are trying to immigrate to Australia,” he said. ”Buying property is the first stage of coming to live here.”

Mr Zhang, his wife Rita Tian and daughter Ella, recently became Australian citizens. They are now advising friends in China about how best to buy real estate and small businesses in Melbourne.

”Australia is paradise, especially for small business people,” he said. ”You don’t have to go through a lot of hierarchy, everything is transparent and it’s easy to recruit because there’s a lot of students who want to work part time.”

#42 wes_coast on 06.26.11 at 10:07 pm

Good job F. This is just the type of moves we need to slowly deflate this thing (if its even possible at this point) or at least prevent it from going through the roof even more. If we Canadians were disciplined enough to just back off and let HAM and others of their ilk come in and misinvest their money here we could laugh all the way to the bank – but – sadly for every HAM that steps in there are likely 5 to 10 Canadians making similarly stupid investments, and this is why F has to protect us from ourselves. Overall a good move. People should not be able to buy their way into Canada regardless. There are many good people out there. Some with money. Some with less. Let them in on their merits.

#43 DJH on 06.26.11 at 10:08 pm

“Citizenship and Immigration Canada is abruptly capping the Federal Immigrant Investor Program, setting a minuscule target of just 700 for the next year – a quota expected to be filled in just days.”

Garth, could you tell us the usual number of immigrants per year that have been entering Canada under this program? Were there enough to have had a significant impact on Vancouver real estate prices?

#44 Neu Grufti on 06.26.11 at 10:08 pm

Almost 40, still happily renting here. After a disaster of a relationship that left be $20k in debt in my mid thirties (never listen to a woman who wants a house you can’t afford is a lesson I wish I’d learned earlier), I have managed to recover nicely in just a few short years. Money that would have gone to mortgage interest has been invested, and through good luck and careful planning, I’ve managed a return that beats real estate in the last few years. There isn’t a woman or Federal Finance Minister who can convince me a home is an investment when real, tangible, liquid assets can be taken out as needed in an emergency, and can easily give you 6-8% a year (in 2009 I was 40% up in a market crash through lucky timing, and I was over 25% up last year, and this year, I am up 5% so far while the markets tread water).

I wish you had been giving out this advice in an easier to find manner in 2006.

#45 wetcoaster on 06.26.11 at 10:09 pm

#11 Pete in Barrie,

The Big Short is an awesome insight into what is the same junk CMHC is pawning off to the so called sophisticated Canadian investors.

I think I can hear Cam Good puking in his Feng Shui crapper, like a drunk with an empty fridge.

#46 MB on 06.26.11 at 10:11 pm

On top of that advice, Charlie needs a quick math lesson:
100 + 30% = 130
130 – 20% = 104, not 110

#47 hey there beach girl on 06.26.11 at 10:11 pm

hey beach girl….don’t think you’re supposed to call them retards any more…..thanks for reminding me why I don’t live in the Beaches……just sayin’

“#227 Beach Girl on 06.26.11 at 3:42 pm
Also, am putting two idiot sons through Electrical Enginering courses at University, from my hard earned RESPs. Which, if and when they complete, will only earn 60,000, which half would go to to taxes. In my day retards could assemble a car, on a grade 8 education and have a better life. Squirrel traps or Jack Russell. Vote.

#48 Raj on 06.26.11 at 10:12 pm

Alot of greed to feed on still.

I haven’t been through a housing crash in Canada, but have seen the dot com bust. I can feel the market going higher and higher on a monthly basis, and those home owners smiling ear to ear as their homes have gone up.

The little fires will not cause a stir, because everyone will think “oh, it’s going to go back up, just a little bump in the road”. And then denial sets in, but buyers will rush to stop the drop. Question is, will this cause a further run up, or will it be the greatest of fools who buy during this time?

I don’t even sense any sort of worry, so I’m not sure any sort of down turn has started, or even is about to start.

Blog dogs are gloomy here, but the skys look very clear on the horizon still.

If/When steam runs out we’ll see, but I can’ see that happening any time soon.

Will be up another 10%, 20%, 30% before buyers wake up and have nothing but kraft dinner to eat before things turn down?

Mississauga market is sizzling, on fire, and there is no water in sight to tame this sucker down.

#49 hey there beach girl on 06.26.11 at 10:12 pm

also I think it’s spelled Engineering, not Enginering.

But hey I could be mistaken.

#50 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.26.11 at 10:17 pm

As if Flaherty is making the decision on his own!

My guess: the Chinese Government saw all of that bad press a couple of weeks back when it was reported that officials were stealing money and sending it to the U.S., Canada, and Australia (among other places). And, China basically told Canada to tighten up the immigration policies or else they’d stop buying our debt.
(you know – like they tell the U.S. every time they need a favour)

#51 Killer Chicken or Imploding Boomer? on 06.26.11 at 10:21 pm

251 Sally

“The bank has to honour the check if the funds are there.”

We are now on the right track! If you’re like many
people, you receive a paycheque from your employer, or
maybe cheques from clients like I do. If we deposit into our account, and then dont spend it all, what is left over we call “savings”. It reflects the net of our prodcution vs our consumption. I am sure you, again like most people, feel these funds resulting from living under your means
are real.

Now, if my client, or the employer, has borrowed this “money” to pay me or you, it cant be “real” if the
bank has created the “money” out of thin air. There is no cash, yet somehow I have managed to take this “money”
of undetermined origin, pay for my house, buy a truck,
pay taxes to 3 levels of govt etc.

So is the FRB system rigged? Sure is – that is why Garth generally recommends holding some of their stocks. Is it evil? Not IMO, it may actually be helping me become
wealthy.

#52 MikeT on 06.26.11 at 10:21 pm

glad to see so many blawg dawgs mentioning Charles’ miscalculation of percentages. It’s cool to schmooze with such smart people. I’m hooked to this blog and all comments!

#53 Abitibidoug on 06.26.11 at 10:23 pm

@Chicken Little, post#23:
You’re right, we consume far too much energy and resources. Governments, with their artificially low interest rates and running up big deficits for stimulus programs, got us into this mess trying to maintain a high growth and high consumption system which makes no sense anymore in a world of limited resources.

#54 the_apocalyptic_one on 06.26.11 at 10:24 pm

Rather than worry about what the Bank of Canada has to say, it may be time to worry about health of The Bank of Canada itself. The BIS is warning of runs on the US dollar and warning China and India about their own exploding debt crisis. The issues that concern the Central Bank of Central banks are far bigger than the puny Canadian housing market. When the US dollar goes, the whole world’s economy will go belly up, there will be much bigger things to worry about in that case than Canadian RE prices. Yeah, yeah, yeah – I know Garth thinks that the dinosaurs are still extant not extinct, and the dollar will never crash and burn – I’m sure the dinosaurs felt the same way!

http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_emerging-nations-need-to-guard-against-economic-imbalances-bis_1559408

#55 MO on 06.26.11 at 10:24 pm

I can’t believe that Canadians are still talking up house prices when the rest of the world around them is crumbling because of debt.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2011/06/26/hitting-the-fan-ice-cap-asset-mgmt-on-the-evolving-sovereign-debt-crisis/

#56 Bill Gable on 06.26.11 at 10:30 pm

Sounding a lot like our jovial, squirrel toting recipe host – this was quoted by one of our wise blog dawgies on another page and it is worth reading out loud –

“To borrow a phrase from Karl Denninger “You cannot expand credit at a rate faster than GDP forever without suffering a financial panic and collapse”.

>Okay? Mr. Turner, and Flaherty and Carney have told you and then read above – how obvious!

Couple of more – this weekend Open Houses in West End in Vancouver 320. (*unbelievable – and not a lot of traffic).
This lovely rental we are leaving is a view one and den and has been on MLS for two months – one person was here 8 minutes and said, basically, a million bucks for a place with a $600.00 month maintenance fees, bad windows and about to get rains creened is a sucker bet.

Vancouver – the land of the hooped.

LOVED the fact that now only 700 criminals can get in from China a year.

The Mercedes dealers must be apoplectic.

#57 April on 06.26.11 at 10:37 pm

I was with a group of female friends today on the West side of Vancouver and all were saying they think Van market has “peaked”.

#58 nonplused on 06.26.11 at 10:38 pm

Good post tonight Garth. My comments are thus:

Carney and F can spew gas all they like, Canadians will not quit up-debting until Carney pulls the trigger and raises rates. Why would they? Life is good at 1%. Actions speak louder than words. When Carney pulls the triger, al you have predicted and then some will come to be, but Carney has to act first, and he has acted like such a wimp for so long nobody believes a word he says anymore.

The general belief of Canadians is that Carnaval Carney will go straight to hyperinflation, making no attempt to riegn in monetary expansion. And they are probably right. This guy is all talk, no action. Canada doesn’t need 1% rates and never did. He will always be behind the curve.

However, you better be out of what you don’t intend to own for a long time when Harper decides enough is enough and gets ride of Carney in favour of a not Goldman man.

#59 random guy on 06.26.11 at 10:40 pm

corrupt chinese officials:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2079756,00.html

#60 pathrik M on 06.26.11 at 10:41 pm

F is simply protecting himself. He knows what is coming because he fanned the flames of the housing bubble himself. By coming out now – at this very late stage – he will be able to say ‘well i did warn everyone’.

Of course the fawning media hoards will agree with this claim – no questions even asked.

#61 Mr. Reality on 06.26.11 at 10:47 pm

Watch the liquidity in the markets dissolve in the coming weeks starting with the end of QE2. Then the fun begins……

Shaping up to be an interesting summer!

Mr. R.

#62 xindai shan on 06.26.11 at 10:47 pm

theTruth is right about the backlog in investor immigrants, but the announcement does have Chinese Canadian real estate bulls chattering on real estate forums. Not suprizingly, all Canadian Chinese portals have very active and heated real estate debate.

The impact of the announcement is more psychological as Chinese Canadians are actually entertaining the notion that this is the first step of many to stop HAM in real estate.

I haven’t seen a mainstream article on the change, but this newsletter is often cited. Foreign press has picked the story.

Announcement

#63 Lisa on 06.26.11 at 10:50 pm

Leprechaun Flat, pit bull Slimer and Carnival Mark (along with “Steve” of course) can blog lurk all they want. A big “HI YA!” and welcome. Bet they get a lot of their ideas from here.

#64 Jsan on 06.26.11 at 10:56 pm

#1 Ralph G on 06.26.11 at 8:52 pm

The latest (and shocking) Canadian total debt statistics:

http://www.bloggingtories.ca/forums/viewtopic.php?p=97522

If the link does not work, enter the first sentence of my post into google to get to the information

===================================

Thanks for the post, you are right, shocking is a good way to describe the mountain of debt Canadians keep piling up. Locally here in Edmonton, 50% of the commercials on Radio over the last year or so are from companies flogging home equity loans. Want that reno, want that new car, want that vacation, want it all? No problem, just cash out your equity. Take that very manageable mortgage you may be holding and turn into a gigantic debt monster.

Sing with me, “making your home equity work for you Alpine Credit”!! or “If you got a home you can get that loan, Arron acceptance”!!

2 months ago Alpine Credit used to be called Alpine Mortgage. Why the name change? Probably home equity loans are a much bigger cash cow for them nowadays as debt ridden Albertans continue to use their homes as ATM machines. So tell me, how exactly are we different than the Americans and the debt mess they created??

#65 xyz on 06.26.11 at 10:56 pm

Wow… took them long enough to figure this one out…..geez

#66 AA on 06.26.11 at 10:57 pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13922857
Interest rates too low everywhere.

#67 b on 06.26.11 at 10:59 pm

sanford and son, now fred would surely be able to make some sense of this real estate madness, look out you “dummy” lol

#68 Dodged-a Bullit-in-Alberta on 06.26.11 at 11:15 pm

Greetings: A long time ago Mr. Turner you did a blog on the L word. Liquidity was what you discussed, as in investments, and real estate was not one of these. At that time I posted that the real word should of been leadership, which we are sorely lacking in Ottawa. Well now with todays’ post, the word LIAR comes to mind. Mr. Harper now has his majority government, but I still cannot escape the feeling of dread that once elected; politicans and their appointed cronies; throw ethics, integrity, honesty, and public service out the window!! Will we ever see the day again when the title “Honorable MP from….”” has credibility with Canadians.

#69 nuke on 06.26.11 at 11:15 pm

“Federal Immigrant Investor Program, setting a minuscule target of just 700”

What is the current annual quota? How much of a % shift is this?

#70 Jed on 06.26.11 at 11:16 pm

Estimates by China’s central bank that up to 18,000 corrupt officials have fled overseas with over $120 billion in stolen money in the last few years are undoubtedly well short of the truth.

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/Corrupt+officials+flee+with+billion+report/5009270/story.html#ixzz1QRgsLN00

#71 Kim 1 on 06.26.11 at 11:19 pm

#23 Chicken Little … we should downsize but people here cling to thier stuff like it has value, what they don’t realize it that it only has value if some one eles wants it… tons of stuff, storage units and now, a house they soon can’t sell, soon they’ll be adding that to the junk pile like they did in Detroit.

#72 Kim 1 on 06.26.11 at 11:24 pm

#30 Turner Nation
Thanks for that on David Ho.. he owned the building by lost lagoon, unreal. Thanks for that post.

#73 SquareNinja on 06.26.11 at 11:28 pm

On the ground in Vancouver, the winds are starting to shift. As a salesperson, I talk to people everyday, and just months ago, everyone was in denial that Vancouver could ever experience a drop in price for residential real estate.

But today, the majority of the people I see and talk to deny it no longer. Oh wait, those who actually own real estate still deny it!

At least the real estate agents aren’t lying through their teeth anymore! Yes, Vancouver realtors will now tell you to SELL, SELL, SELL.

#74 Utopia on 06.26.11 at 11:29 pm

Beach Girl wrote…

“Squirrel traps or Jack Russell. Vote.”
————————————————————
I won’t vote until one of my choices is Jack Daniels. There is more than one way to catch a squirrel, Beach Girl. Drunk helps.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Daniel%27s

#75 Carp on 06.26.11 at 11:38 pm

“But it’s not until you wake up one morning, roll over and see what you just did, that reality hits.”

So true ….

#76 Cato on 06.26.11 at 11:47 pm

Get out the weenies, F is about to be roasted. No good deed goes unpunished. The majority have no idea bubble exists, and they won’t understand the ramifications when it starts deflating. The masses are just going to look for someone to blame. Great going guys, you just set the conservative party back to the dark ages – you think anger over the GST was bad…

Instead of going after the consumer we need to go after the enabler. Put the lending risk back on the banks where it belongs and shut down the cmhc.

Still think the cmhc reserves are sitting in well diversified, liquid investments? Guess again. Ever look at closely at signs announcing low income/community housing initiatives – notice the cmhc logo. The agency was used to scratch the political backs of politicians on all levels. I bet you peel back the layers you find one giant slush fund. I have nothing against social housing initiatives, but only gov’t would think of using it as a hedge against real estate.

So guess who pays when banks start making claims against the fund. I doubt the cmhc will be able to sell a diseased under performing loan portfolio built on assets investors avoid like the plaque. So that leaves the tax payer – we’ll take the rot off the cmhc books to inject liquidity into the banks. F gets to look forward to presiding over the entire mess, and I’m sure Harper would never be the type to throw a colleague under the bus.

#77 Phil on 06.26.11 at 11:47 pm

On June 24, 2011, CIC announced that is imposing an annual cap of 700 on all new applications under the Canadian Federal Immigrant Investor Program. According to the announcement, the annual cap on new applications will allow for progress on backlog reduction while ensuring that CIC has a sufficient volume of new files to meet its commitments.

I dont know what progress on backlog reduction means, as in, does it mean that over and above the 700 cap, the backlog will be reduced? if so, then these changes will have zero impact. Again.

#78 Coho on 06.26.11 at 11:47 pm

Could it be the feds are desperately trying to deflate the housing market before it blows up an unsuspecting middle class? Let’s turn this rock over and see what crawls.

Yep, it’s their exit strategy. They’re in the process of distancing themselves from the inevitable finger pointing after the bubble bursts. “We warned you”, they’ll say “because we are nice guys and care about you.”

It’s like F and C opening the driver’s door of a new Mustang sitting atop a hill and offering you a free ride (low interest). You get in and they push you just enough to start you rolling down the hill. Faster and faster you go. The engine (economy) isn’t running — it doesn’t need to because you’re screaming down a 20 degree slope of “free money”. Then you hear a voice coming through the car stereo speakers telling you to slow down. You push the brake pedal but without the engine running they don’t work too well. The “warning” had come much too late. Yeah, you should’ve known better than to accept the offer. Whether you were too stupid, too trusting, too optomistic, too fearful, too greedy or just plain foolish — you are now out of control. Down the hill you go whizzing through 3 red lights, then crash through a hedge and go airborne before plunging into a lake — trapped in your “rented” fancy Mustang, underwater and unable to get out. “You can’t say we didn’t warn you, comes the muffled voice through your door speakers.”

We’re perfectly capable of making enough mistakes on our own. We need help to avoid them, not help in making them. This is where responsible government needs to come in. Where is it? They open the barn door to let the horse out, and then close it again and figure they’re doing their job. With policymakers like that, who needs external threats to personal and national financial security?

#79 Jsan on 06.26.11 at 11:51 pm

There are sure allot more cries for hiking interest rates. I think the inevitable will happen sooner than later. Now that the bankers have secured more than their share of debtors, they would probably love to see those rates go up so they can begin to earn some real money on all of the loans. Lull the unwashed, fiscally retarded masses into taking on as much debt as they could than crank rates up and watch the bank profits flood in.

“Central banks should hike rates, BIS says”

“Once central banks start lifting rates, they may need to do so more quickly than in past tightening episodes.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/central-banks-should-hike-rates-bis-says-2011-06-26

.

#80 Phil on 06.26.11 at 11:53 pm

Federal Immigrant Investor Program

CIC has announced that as of July 1, 2011, the number of Federal Immigrant Investor applications accepted for processing will be capped at 700 for the coming 12 months. Canadian financial institutions, which act as facilitators in this program, are reporting that applicants will be required to submit government processing fees, a copy of their passport, and completed simplified forms to the Centralized Intake Office in Sydney, Nova Scotia. All other supporting documents will be required at a later stage of the processing.

To qualify for the Federal Immigrant Investor Program, applicants must have:
• Prior business experience;
• A minimum net worth of C$1,600,000 CAN; and
• Make a C$800,000 CAN secured investment.

“Given the demand for this program, especially from Chinese nationals, we expect this imposed cap limit to be reached extremely quickly… probably within a matter of days,” says Attorney David Cohen. “Applicants should keep in mind that Quebec has its own Immigrant Investor Program which could be a great option for applicants who cannot submit under the Federal Investor Program as Quebec will be increasing the number of applications accepted under its program.”

Still unsure about the backlog.

#81 Alberta Ed on 06.26.11 at 11:59 pm

Hey! Things are different here in Oilberta…. people are flocking here for JOBS. The Boom is back! House prices in Canmore (second only to Snafouver) will keep rising FOREVER! OK, no one came to the Open House down the street this afternoon, but things are different here… really.

#82 Jsan on 06.27.11 at 12:00 am

How many clowns have bought “flipper” properties here in Canada over the last year or so believing that the recession is over and the good times were just around the corner? These would be the same people who thought that house prices going higher during a recession was normal and not the real result of a very heavily Flaherty/Harper/CMHC manipulated housing market. I believe that they will eventually see what really happens to the value of real estate during a recession. Here is a hint, prices DO NOT go up.

“New recession begins next year, Shilling says”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-recession-begins-next-year-shilling-says-2011-06-24?link=MW_story_popular

#83 UVZ on 06.27.11 at 12:09 am

Thinking ahead several steps, what could the exit strategy be for the CMHC?

Could the CMHC be positioned as a property manager working on behalf of taxpayer owners? This wild idea now could placate some outraged people in a future scenario. It would also facilitate having some of the foreclosing segment of the population maintain some of their personal dignity.

I am not saying that the numbers behind this idea are necessarily workable (i.e. that the taxpayer would get a great return on investment). This would depend on the magnitude of the problem and the design of the solution.

#84 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.27.11 at 12:11 am


Nice lead-in pic. Skid marks on contact with the water?

“. . . it was Riot Day when Carney traveled to Vancouver . . .” — Does this compare to Vancouver’s dummkopfs after Game 7? Speaking of riots . . .

“This Friday, quietly, the door shuts on cash-heavy, house-horny Mainland Chinese.” — One reason why China could have chosen to bail out the EU, rather than NA. Or they may be in the process of doing both.

“F probably knows . . .” — Sympathy For The Devil? Sure. For C-H-F, zip, nada. The devil is easier to deal with than these liars.
*
Bridge New bridge between San Francisco and Oakland is being built and shipped by China. Is the bridge where the west’s money is going? Sliding Economy Second half of 2011, then further; If the US$ flatlines around Aug. 2, these are the Top Five Places not to be; Just in time for Aug. 2, talks between the Demopubs break down; Link in “Since they realize that the American economy is dead, they are trying to suck as much blood out of America as possible while the corpse is still warm.”; Orders down for Chinese Xmas toy makers; China bails out EU, so there is probably something in it for China.

Minot = HAARP Most, if not all of the places mentioned are within striking distance of the NMF; Link in “The Hubble Ultra Deep Field in 3D”; WW3 US vs. China? It’s getting closer but first, invade Libya, Yemen, S. Arabia, Pakistan then Iran on behalf of ssshh . . . u-know-who.

Nuke info. “Since EMP is a line-of-sight weapon, detonating one of these nukes about 200 miles above Nebraska could end life as we know it in America in about one second.”; 7:08 clip Libyan women say no more intervention; 2:14 clip Prince Charles — not only a full-fledged daisy, also a hypocrite; The Shift Is About To Hit The Fan (slight magnetic polar shifts and shakes).

#85 grantmi on 06.27.11 at 12:11 am

#19 HP on 06.26.11 at 9:22 pm

First

1st Idiot!

#86 Tony on 06.27.11 at 12:18 am

It looks like it’s all over for commodities and the Canadian economy. Canada should be back in recession by early next year. Quite the contrary interest rates have nowhere to go but downward.

#87 Snowman on 06.27.11 at 12:24 am

#39 Mister Obvious

“Charles needs to brush up on his math. A rise of 30% followed by a drop of 20% leaves him ahead a mere 4% on the original price. That will be swallowed up by commission and fees at closing.”

What Charles is saying (and the dogs don’t get) is he may end up buying a house he could have bought five years ago for the same price. So what exactly was the benefit of waiting? And wasting his time on this blog? All the money he “saved” by renting while waiting is going to swallowed by the higher cost to service the debt. Add to this the rent he paid for the five years and voila, “le portrait” of a greater fool?

#88 The Phantom on 06.27.11 at 12:25 am

Evening Garth; blog dogs and fellow Lurkers…

I wanted to merely comment tonight on one post in particular that caught my attention.

#20 LJ on 06.26.11 at 9:24 pm

I couldn’t agree with you more on the times to buy and/or to sell and get the hell out of dodge however, I wonder if you assume too much when you assign high degrees of rational thought to those who jump into a rising assett class of any stripe towards the end of a long run. Gold in the late 70’s/1980; Nortel, Yahoo (and the dotcom craze in general: Google “Peter Schiff, Austrian Economic Club youtube” for his 60+ minute dialogue on that and other ) tidbits on the American economy), and now of course we have RE. The only other serpentine meandering I was going to indulge in tonight relates to one sentence Garth had…I thought that state sanctioned locusts were a CIA instrument…anyway have a good night all and sleep well until the next time…

the Phantom

#89 I think F is stuck on 06.27.11 at 12:28 am

Isn’t F in a tough place re: rate increase and stalling the Canadian economy?
Besides squeezing canadians, forcing them to buy less electronics, many would lose their homes, this reducing the amount of property tax revenue each province receives. This could reduce govt services, and may force a reduction of govt workers, which would reduce the amount of federal tax revenue the govt receives.
The rate rise would also increase the Cdn dollar (over US), making Cdn exports less competitive. 
If our manufacturing base suffers, then there would be layoffs, bankruptcies, and less tax revenue.
So how can F raise rates, without a disastrous effect on our economy?

#90 Alex on 06.27.11 at 12:28 am

Damn…’twas the steroids-enhanced freak of blog posts today, Garth. Still digesting all you threw at us.

Maybe it’s just wishful thinking, but I’m feeling a change in the air. I’m hearing normal everyday people NOT gush over real estate. I’m seeing more rentals, *cheaper* rentals, and many more unsold homes in key bubble zones like Richmond (where a grand total of 2300 properties are currently flooding the market). I’m noticing more articles and columns in the mainstream media alluding to housing price unsustainability and advising that renting just might be a better option than buying.

Like this one. :-)

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Vancouver+renting+better+option+than+buying/4674158/story.html

I’m seeing more price drops/more inventory in greater Vancouver peripheral areas such as Aldergrove and Abbotsford. And I’m hearing our federal government seemingly yap even harder about our collective and personal debt and the role housing – and immigration – plays in it. Of course, we’d love to see a little action to back up those words, but that should come with time.

Yes, the insanity still exists, but only in limited doses.

In Washington state, just 15 minutes from where I live, 2 lbs of cheese is 6 bucks. Gas is less than a dollar a liter. A dozen beer and a gallon of milk run half the price of their Canadian counterparts. And $339,000 gets you this, on two acres no less:

http://www.homes.com/listing/139768372/4048_Hoier_BLAINE_WA_98230

While $918,000 in a truly unremarkable area of Vancouver, right on the freeway known as Oak Street, gets you this almost-condemned lump of crud:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10343792&PidKey=-1730074562

Cannot help but feel the last vestiges of the bubble are with us now on the wet coast.

#91 PocoLoco on 06.27.11 at 12:32 am

Puts the HOT in HAM? http://www.vancouversun.com/business/asia-pacific/Opinion+Corrupt+Chinese+officials+flee+with+billion+says+report/5009270/story.html

#92 Ben on 06.27.11 at 12:44 am

“blog lurker Mark Carney”

He probably saw the posts about the billions of dollars of dirty Chinese money being laundered in real estate of other countries like Canada?

#93 Beach Girl on 06.27.11 at 12:47 am

Okay, made a spelling mistake. Only a geek computer programmer. Still they are idiots. Love them at a distance. People I know in Whitby, are telling me their children cannot get jobs at Tims house of donuts, because older seniors are lining up for them. I actually got a degree, suprises me to this day. But back in 1982, no one knew what a computer was. Rode those laurels for a long properous time. The jig is up. Work with a computer guy from Mumbai, he is pissed, worked hard to get here and all the jobs are going back home.

#94 Beach Girl on 06.27.11 at 12:53 am

I know another spelling mistake. It is late and the wine is fine.

#95 Nick on 06.27.11 at 1:09 am

I’m in Van for the first time. The forest of dull-gray condo towers near the bridge are VERY Phoenix-like. Just sayin’.

#96 Canuck Abroad on 06.27.11 at 1:14 am

25 / Tim…west side of Vancouver has gone up 79% over five years, so your call of a 15% correction will put us at about where it was a year ago. Even if it grinds down slowly, it will never lose 79% of its value…
My guess of 15% is a national number. That could equal 50% in Vancouver. — Garth

Just in case there is anyone out there with math skills like Charles, here is how that turns out:
$100 * 79% = $179
$179 * 50% = $89.50
So you would be worse off that 5 years ago.
And a 44% decline will wipe out your 79% increase!
This ignores all your other costs of buying and selling as well as any time value/inflation but you get the idea.

#97 Utopia on 06.27.11 at 1:35 am

Oh Crap! This really is the end.

Pizza boys giving tips on selling real estate now? Shoe-shine boys offering advice on hot stocks? Well if there is any truth to the Odlum and Brown anecdote in the Globe and Mail story that follows then Vancouver just hit the bust button (and no, bust is not a sexy word in this case so this is not a good time to get excited).

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/vancouver-pizza-boy-sell-your-house-now/article2074029/

#98 Utopia on 06.27.11 at 1:54 am

Well, the US Dollar is up strongly tonight, wheat and corn are taking another beating as expected and Silver is off almost 3% and headed below resistance.

The Loonie meanwhile stands just a whisper from dropping below par. I am still anticipating a bad Monday on markets but we shall see how it all looks in the morning light. The Greeks have a big vote this week and there is worry all round. Looks to be tight coming into the final drama and showdown.

I will not be surprised to see a major riot there no matter which way the vote goes. A national strike has been called and battle lines are being drawn in parliament and on the streets.

Should be an interesting week ahead. Take a Gravol and buckle up.

#99 Robins on 06.27.11 at 2:02 am

F is way more simple and straightforward, imho.

Upside Risks To Inflation Call For Hike In Policy Rates: BIS
6/27/2011 1:42 AM ET
The increase in upside risks to inflation calls for higher policy rates globally, the Bank for International Settlements, or BIS, said on Sunday.
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/ForexTopStory.aspx?Id=1653957&SM=1

#100 Vancouver Shocks on 06.27.11 at 2:34 am

Great way to warn people that cant buy to keep renting from investors. A warning with a so called limit of 700 investor ceiling from china making mouths water.

Think about the wealth and size of generations upon generations in china. Arnold is 73 and is worth 400 million, he has 8 children, 20 grandchildren, 8 son and daughter in laws, and 50 relatives. 5% of the family lives in canada, but 80% of the family has equity built into canada’s economy through the 5%.

Which world class cities in the states are surrounded by oceans and mountains? Which world class cities where real estate has plummeted, have a population size of vancouver? Its simple economics, 10,000 bloggers cant stand the prices of real estate in their mist because they will never be able to live where they want to, meanwhile 50-100 million people would love to live and build wealth in a free country such as canada.

Is our government going to create foreign policy to turn away investors buying up inflated real estate? Immigration builds our economy stronger, and these people are buying goods and services from us.

I dont doubt that prices rise and drop but in the long run prices are only going up. I am looking forward to another entertaining 2-3 years of garth follows building up an army that gets over powered by the millions!

#101 Vancouver Shocks on 06.27.11 at 2:42 am

I will agree with garth and others about concern of the “average family” and the 5000 graduates with degrees this year that will apply and hope for a minimum wage job.

Tough times it is, but canada is canada, are you fellow canadians trying to compare our country to the usa? There are more chinese multi millionaires than canada’s 33 million of population.

Take the whole situation of any “country in a projected economic crisis” into perspective and think of the population of vancouver call it 1 million.

Where is the concern for real estate investors? Please explain Garth

#102 Jen on 06.27.11 at 3:12 am

It’s too late! Our Bank of Canada Governor is getting hot flashes with our Finance Minister.

It makes me sick to my stomach to know that these fools our going around our country, at tax payer expense, and preaching their out of control children to behave with their money.

Please, that is like saying to a drug addict to stop using it, and then turn around and providing them with all the cheap drugs that they want.

They get paid to supervise the system from blowing up is it not? If they are so worried, why have they allow the system to get out of control? It is because for a while it produces fake prosperity. However, if it is built on debt, instead on income, it is only a matter of time.

#103 Mel on 06.27.11 at 3:26 am

Neu Grufti:

Be a big boy, and stop blaming ” woman” for your financial misery.

You were not kidnapped and forced to sign into your mortgage slavery did you?

You were a fool, just as much as she was. Nothing less, and nothing more.

You have learned, and now you have been promoted to manhood. Congratulations!

#104 ca on 06.27.11 at 3:44 am

Just wait till till the Fight HST campaign neuters businesses in BC so the people can save on bicycles and vitamins. This province is so doomed. The only saving grace I thought we had was that global warming would dry us out a bit. So much for that, what a crappy spring.
$2.8 Billion in debt before the HST. What’s the plan when it gets voted down? Oh ya, I remember! The Liberals will feel defeated. That’s great. I feel better! We showed them! Now go find a job.

#105 Gimli Son of Gloin on 06.27.11 at 4:01 am

Meanwhile, RBC’s bragging about personal loans for prime +1/2 when everyone else is prime+1, and showing those commercials in which the first thing the young couple does after buying the house is throw a perfectly serviceable kitchen countertop into a dumpster
_________________

I thought it was odd for them to throw out that countertop. Guess they need granite!

#106 JessicaJ on 06.27.11 at 4:33 am

Love the photo Garth! Thanks for the laugh! Now, I am looking forward to reading the article! ps – is that the Weiner guy?

#107 Mortgage girl on 06.27.11 at 4:55 am

Hmmmmmmmm Mark Carney lurks on this blog….gee maybe the PM and F lurk too!

#108 Aussie Roy on 06.27.11 at 5:08 am

Aussie Update

SYDNEY—Australian and South Korean banks are the most exposed in Asia to Europe’s debt crisis, given their dependence on offshore wholesale funding markets, a senior official at Fitch Ratings said Friday.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304569504576404981548985702.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

BEIJING -(MarketWatch)- A recent decline in Chinese real-estate prices is starting to shake confidence in the country’s economic vitality and open a debate about whether the country’s economy is over-leveraged. That’s what made the real-estate bubble’s aftermath so painful for the U.S. and Japan.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-real-estate-concerns-keep-rising-2011-06-26

GREECE isn’t the only country giving investors the jitters.

While Australia’s challenges pale in comparison to those currently plaguing the debt-laden European nation, they are still spooking foreign investors who are taking their money out of our share market and running.

http://www.news.com.au/business/foreign-investors-see-risks-down-under/story-e6frfm1i-1226082120741#ixzz1QT5RMvbj

Trillion reasons why banks love mortgages.

Yes, that’s right, around 5 million people with bank mortgages now owe $1 TRILLION in housing-related debt – to put it another, stark way.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/trillion-reasons-why-banks-love-mortgages-20110626-1gln0.html#ixzz1QT5l8svr

Rate rises loom but home prices ‘won’t crash’ – Pull the other one.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/rate-rises-loom-but-home-prices-wont-crash-20110627-1gmow.html#ixzz1QT5vETzY

Biggest Aussie mining state where prices are down 5% being touted as next boom state. LOL Not even the bulls can agree…..

http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-property-experts-slam-19-increase-forecast-20110627-1gmzx.html

So let me get this right, forecast (below) is for 10% mortage rates within 5 years but same company says house prices will increase by 18% in next 12 months.
WTF….

http://www.news.com.au/money/property/interest-rates-heading-for-10-per-cent-according-to-bis-shrapnel-reports/story-e6frfmd0-1226082815632

#109 Montrealer on 06.27.11 at 5:52 am

@ #25 Tim:
to loose the 79% gain, you only need to drop prices by 44%, not 79% like you say… and even less than 44% if you factor in the closing costs.

#110 David B on 06.27.11 at 6:59 am

“Bingo Garth” Harper & Co supported by Con TV can spout on they like but until each and every Canadian reaches into their wallet and finds no Capital One Card they believe nothing …. just a few days ago people in Tim’s were saying governments will not raise interest rates because it will kill the recovery, even the USA said no not now and not for some time. So why now here in Canada eh?

#111 debtified on 06.27.11 at 7:05 am

One morning H, F & C will be gone. $x,000,000,000,000 of debt will remain. Good luck to us all!

#112 Anotherlowlyrenter on 06.27.11 at 7:11 am

Hi Garth,

Thanks for that. Just to compare apples with apples, any idea how many immigrant investors arrive under that program in a typical year – before the cap is set?

#113 Jas Girn on 06.27.11 at 7:19 am

‘Vancouver Shocks’ is Stephen Harper in disguise. Lol.

#114 Kaganovich on 06.27.11 at 7:35 am

Coho

I questioned minister Ritz at an all candidates debate in the spring during the election campaign. In response to my question about the political factors involved in the creation of the housing bubble (via CMHC) we are in, he flatly denied the existence of bubbles anywhere! I pointed out the extreme rise in housing prices in a couple larger centres including Vancouver, to which he responded that Vancouver is always high and that will never change! I proceeded to push the point about Canada’s reliance on an overheated Chinese economy for the increased demand for our commodities, and he laughed, claiming that the Chinese economy is projected to grow 10%. I laughed and thought to myself, ‘right’. His answers were very smooth, almost like they were rehearsed, and most of the crowd agreed with him! Astonishing, really.

#115 Steady Eddie on 06.27.11 at 8:09 am

Unfortunately higher interest rates do nothing for the 70% of Canadians who are now into house debt. It’s funny how the government and banks caused all of moral hazard by lowering interest rates and changing mortgage rules and now are warning about debt. They knew exactly what they were doing… increase bank profts, increase GDP numbers, kick the can down the road. Enjoy debt slavery, I picked out some fashions for you:

http://www.redcar-cleveland.gov.uk/rcbcmuseums.nsf/peasant-costume2.gif

Now be good little Canadians and pay off your debt to your masters. Good bye savings, good bye retirement, lets all go and speculate on the market…

If we had sound money that we couldn’t inflate and the money supply and prices were stable, you could just save. Who needs this debt monetary system? RISE UP!!!!!!!!!!!

#116 Steady Eddie on 06.27.11 at 8:22 am

Governments serve banking interests and the major corporations…. wake up and grow up.

You think you live in a democracy? Yeah I remember voting for NAFTA… People have no say, no recourse… look at the canadian postal workers being ordered back to work… they should be rioting in the streets…. they want salaries adjusted to inflation (at least what the govt says is inflation)… when they should ask for salaries to adjust to the money supply expansion. The happiest slave is the slave who thinks he is free. They give us just enough to keep us from rioting… all history has been about people and their governments is controlling rebellion. They have the perfect formula. Imagine if the 44 million Amerikans didn’t have foodstamps…. I think then you would have “Change you can believe in”

Canada is set to implode just like the U.S. What do you think will happen when the USD is no longer the world currency? Rome will never fall right?

We’ve reached, peak debt, peak credit, peak oil, peak ecology, peak expansion, peak consumption.

Contraction started yesterday….

#117 TS on 06.27.11 at 8:45 am

Interesting observation from the executive director of the British Columbia Wall and Ceiling Association.

The capacity for our scope of work that was developed in the period leading up to the Olympics has left us with an oversupply of building and construction industry resources. If we don’t see more significant work soon, we will start to see a contraction in these industry resources. Some of the apprentices have already moved on to greener pastures. This will come back to bite us in the future as it takes at least three to four years to produce journeyman trades.

The demographic bubble made up of baby boomers are starting to leave in droves. Unlike white collar work, our trades do not linger around the work place much after the age of 65.

http://wallandceiling.ca/guest-column/spring-clean-nuts-and-bolts-canucks-fever-and-summer-winds

#118 Ralph Cramdown on 06.27.11 at 9:13 am

What Charles is saying (and the dogs don’t get) is he may end up buying a house he could have bought five years ago for the same price.

In most of Canada’s population concentrations today, you can rent an equivalent place for less than you can buy it for, and this was true five years ago, too. Charles could have rented, invested the difference, and ended up buying a nicer house, or buying an equivalent house and having extra money or equity.

It only makes sense to spend far more buying (PITI+maintenance+opportunity cost, not just the P+I that realtors are always stressing) than renting if you think rents will go up more than inflation, or you think house prices will continue to rise at more than inflation. Over the long term, both tend to rise at about the rate of inflation. Place your bets.

#119 Gerardo on 06.27.11 at 9:18 am

Charle’s Miscalculation illustrates how fool people can be, and how a correction can be hurtfull:

If you purchase an asset for 200 K and it goes up 100 % the asset is valued 400K, i.e., you make 200K. Now if the same asset goes down only 50% (half its previous increase) it goes from 400K to 200K, i.e., you come back to par.

A percent increase un an asset applies to a smaller amount, while a percent correction applies to a higher amount, thus hurts more.

#120 MikeT on 06.27.11 at 9:33 am

If I want to buy a house on French Riviera, I can do it without having to immigrate to France.
Do foreigners have to immigrate to Canada in order to park their money in Canadian real estate? I couldn’t find such a rule. Therefore, this new limit won’t hamper the HAM effect. Hope someone can prove me wrong.

#121 Utopia on 06.27.11 at 9:33 am

“With monetary policy continuing to be set to achieve the inflation target, our institutions should not be lulled into a false sense of security by current low rates.” ~~ Mark Carney
—————————————————————————-

I notice Mark said “our institutions” by which I am guessing he was vaguely referring to those in both public and private sphere. I would take this as an admonishment and a wake-call for those in the bureaucracy, our banking and insurance sectors to not get too complacent.

We can only hope they start paying attention.

Talk is good. Especially as there is not a lot more money to fertilize over the lands. It has long been my contention that Keynsian experimentation will be proven as a failed policy during times of major structural change.

Substituting public dollars for declining private demand only gets us deeper into a hole that will be a misery pit once rates do finally rise. Unfortunately, we will have to bite the bullet on this one. We have already seen that stimulus spending by government is really only effective when smoothing the ordinary bumps in the business cycle.

This is not a normal cycle.

It therefore calls for different medicine and fiscal discipline is one of the prescriptions. Once we all realize we cannot buy our way out of debt we will be one step closer to finding real solutions to our problems.

Using our heads is called for now and engaging the bureaucracy to find targeted solutions to some of the issues without always just relying on the blunt tool of spending seems to be a good thinking to me. More finesse, less largesse.

Nor can interest rates easily move up at this point ( a quarter point hike to follow up on the warnings would sure help get the point across to those who are not paying attention though) So the ongoing risks need to be communicated clearly and the problems we are facing need to be addressed from policy perspectives, not just the treasury. We are now seeing that from both Finance and the Bank of Canada and it is appreciated.

Changes to immigrant investor rules looks like just such a move and I think it is a good one. It is amazing how quickly solutions can be found when there is strong will behind the demands. And make no mistake, we do need targeted solutions right now.

I believe the sharp reduction in the numbers in the skilled immigrant class are also an acknowledgment from the inner circles of the high likelihood we are headed back into recession next year.

Domestic unemployment rates will be on the rise again as real estate markets are chilled and building slows. Reducing the numbers coming to Canada who are filling jobs that currently go begging is being done well in advance of recession hitting and the problem appearing.

And that is a good move too.

#122 bill c on 06.27.11 at 9:42 am

Wow. Excellent time do do this. I have to hand it to Harper. This went right under the radar. Postal Strike, summer holidays then “BAM”
http://www.cicnews.com/2011/06/breaking-news-announced-canadian-immigration-programs-06845.html
This will rock the boat

#123 Ex-Cowtown on 06.27.11 at 9:44 am

Where, oh where is BPOE and his vaunted inexhaustible supply of HAM????

Sing along, you know the tune:

Gypsies, Tramps and thieves
Off to Van to live with BPOE

One step quicker than the Peoples Party
Fire sales and return of ill gotten booty

Back to the land of the red Chinese!!
A bullet to the head
And the bill sent to your famileeeee

Ah… well… not much of a song, I guess I won’t quit my day job

#124 Kim 1 on 06.27.11 at 9:44 am

#86 Snowman said…. Add to this the rent he paid for the five years and voila, “le portrait” of a greater fool?
———————————
I think you forgot he couldn’t live under a tree. You also forgot the taxes etc etc he would have to pay ‘had’ he owned for five years. Plus you forgot the investment income he earned on his ‘liquidity’ … for five years… should I go on … cause Snowman your not shoveling snow now, my friend… its really, not snow.

#125 The American on 06.27.11 at 9:45 am

AT #25: Tim, you stated, “Cities in the states like Seattle or San Fran have dropped no where near 79%.”

Your comment is true. However, cities like Seattle and San Francisco did not experience the extreme nature in run up on home prices like Vancouver in such a short period of time. San Francisco at peak had affordability ratios of about 9:1, Seattle was about 6:1, and Vancouver is nearing 13:1. That’s a significant difference there in Vancouver. When you couple that with the fact that salaries in Vancouver are much lower than they are in San Francisco, then, well, you start to get the picture. Vancouver’s going to have a massive correction like never witnessed before in Canada. We’re not talking some measly 25% haircut. Vancouver WILL have a 40%+ correction in home values. Mathematically AND statistically speaking, its impossible for it NOT to have this kind of correction. Still, even with 40%+ correction, this wouldn’t even return it to the mean, which we ALL know that values always return to the mean.

#126 Kitchener1 on 06.27.11 at 9:49 am

Regarding the backlog on Federal investor program.

You folks really dont have any idea how the system works– just beacause someone applied does’nt mean they will get accepted into Canada, even if they meet all the criteria. The govt has the mandate to deny or refuse anyone, regardless of the merits of their applicaton.

They just take out the “denied entry” stamp and get started.

Even if there is a backlog that stretches many years, that backlog can go away in a matter of months if the govt so desired. They can easily set up a system that put caps in place for investment program by number of nationals allowed entry per country and state that its about diversification etc.. No discriminatio there, every country gets 100 allowable entries per year etc…

The changes announced friday, along with the notice of intent to firm up citizenship via marriages before the house went for summer recess is showing that the govt is dead serious about changing the way immigration works.

We are going to be pretty much on par with the US immigration policies in about 1-2 years– no federal investment/entreprenuial programs, citizenship via marriage will probely take 3-4 years to get.

It will interesting to see if immigrants from China will still choose to come to Canada if the regulations are the same as the US.

#127 Ex-Cowtown on 06.27.11 at 9:49 am

#118Gerardo on 06.27.11 at 9:18 am

Charle’s Miscalculation illustrates how fool people can be, and how a correction can be hurtfull:

If you purchase an asset for 200 K and it goes up 100 % the asset is valued 400K, i.e., you make 200K. Now if the same asset goes down only 50% (half its previous increase) it goes from 400K to 200K, i.e., you come back to par.

A percent increase un an asset applies to a smaller amount, while a percent correction applies to a higher amount, thus hurts more.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Close but no cigar. You didn’t “make” $200K unless you sold at that price. You may have been up $200K, taken out a HELOC, bought a truck, a boat and a big screen TV because you were “Up”, but you didn’t “make” a penny.

All you just bought a whole new reason to lose sleep at night.

#128 garrulous squirrel on 06.27.11 at 9:52 am

Friday’s ‘capping’ of the ‘immigrant investor class’ snowballing into Canada from China won’t stop the tsunami of stolen cash from being laundered in Canada through real estate purchases.

The government needs to stop and ask “where did this money come from?”….”How can you prove that the money you want to transfer to Canada has been accounted for by your own government”.

The problem isn’t immigrants ….it’s the hundreds of thousands of thieving Chinese nationals who are stealing money in China through corruption and using Canada as a laundry!!!

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Opinion+Corrupt+Chinese+officials+flee+with+billion+says+report/5009270/story.html

Blaming this on legitimate immigration is just ignorant. The thieves aren’t immigrating…they are laundering money. Flaherty …get your head out of your hole!!

The aussies demanded that real estate purchases be tied to residence…..the market didn’t collapse. It means that Aussie regulates the ownership of residential properties to those who reside and work in the country regardless of immigration status. Canada is just a dumping ground for the Chinese corrupt….who would only immigrate should they be charged with an offense in thier own country. In that case…as we have seen…Canada offers sactuary to any criminal who can pay for a plane ticket.

#129 Raven on 06.27.11 at 9:53 am

Jut back from a family visit to Ontario where boomer brother-in-law was giving me the gears about not owning a home at my age. You never lose buying property. Irresponsible to rent. What do you spend your money on? You clearly are not disciplined like we were. Etc. Now his kids have also taken the bait and bought massive houses and properties while making less than I do, with wedding down payments from Pops. So the RE narrative lives on, while I look at Vancouver RE prices in my hood and think…umm, nope. I’ll just rent for now, thanks. Scheduled to be totally debt-free in 2 years, and look forward to one day (maybe) owning a reasonably priced home that doesn’t chain me financially or emotionally.

#130 Paul on 06.27.11 at 9:57 am

You know there’s big trouble ahead when you hear comments from F and MC, even the labour minister Riatt when they try and explain why postal workers need to be ordered back to work. The economy is fragile la,de,daa. How many times have we heard that this past 2 weeks. And this while most of the comments from people on so many news sites that Canada Post is no longer needed. Go figure.

I’m not going back. I retire today!

Check out this awsome pic…..

http://i39.photobucket.com/albums/e151/GrooveTunes/CUPW%20Strike%202011/photo1.jpg

#131 Avoid the market. on 06.27.11 at 9:59 am

Charles “…Since then the house I wanted went up 30%. So in the event of an unlikely 20% price down, I would be still 10% up. ”

People like Charles who cannot use a calculator or do simple math should not be worring about home prices but going back to school.

30% down IS NOT the same as 30% up.

Charles, just for you:

100 x 1.3% = 130
130 x . 7 = 91

That is 9% LESS than the original number.

#132 disciple on 06.27.11 at 10:04 am

Mark Carney = Mr. Lahey?

I spoke with a client on the weekend, noticed she was really stressed. Our conversation went:

disciple: “Keeping busy lately?”

Client: “Yeah, moving a lot of furniture, just sold my bed.”

disciple: “Moving?”

Client: nodding, “I have tenants moving in so got to get everything out.” —her hands join the conversation—“I can’t afford to live in my own house!”

disciple: “Have you thought about selling? You know we are in a bubble and…” —she cuts me off—

Client: “They were saying that back in 2006, and look what happened. People have to live somewhere, you know” (hands still talking).

Unfortunately, I didn’t have any more time to talk with her and had to move on, but this is really the definition of insanity. I didn’t speak out loud what I was thinking because of course, I wanted to retain my client…but like Carney…I tried to warn her…

#133 Paul on 06.27.11 at 10:14 am

You know there’s big trouble ahead when you hear comments from F and MC, even the labour minister Riatt when they try and explain why postal workers need to be ordered back to work. The economy is fragile la,de,daa. How many times have we heard that this past 2 weeks. And this while most of the comments from people on so many news sites that Canada Post is no longer needed. Go figure.

I’m not going back. I retire today!

Check out this awsome pic…..Steve Earl joined the line!

http://i39.photobucket.com/albums/e151/GrooveTunes/CUPW%20Strike%202011/photo1.jpg

#134 Real Estate Deal or No Deal on 06.27.11 at 10:21 am

I think they make those comments so they can say … “Hey, we gave you amble warning …” but secretly they want the party to continue … to help the economy limp along without more government money.

#135 disciple on 06.27.11 at 10:26 am

Whoa! Steady,…Eddy….just hold on a minute…yes, I do agree with the gist of your post; however, technically speaking there can be no such thing as peak debt or peak credit. These can go to infinity. I do not believe in peak oil or peak resources, as these ideas are based on the Myth of Scarcity.

You correctly recognize the main problem is money supply expansion, control of which is in the hands of about 14 banking families in Canada. Their unstated goal is mass indebtedness, a land of landless serfs, whose children will be forced via draft and debt to be ready and willing to “go to war” against a false enemy in some far off land to “save” their country.

This is the future. The coming housing collapse is merely one face of the many-headed Fascist monster. Every day, it is easy to see how closer and closer we near to the end. But the end is only a new beginning.

#136 not 1st on 06.27.11 at 10:37 am

We’ve reached, peak debt, peak credit, peak oil, peak ecology, peak expansion, peak consumption.

Contraction started yesterday….

______________

Maybe you should tell that to the 2 billion people we are going to add to the planet in the next 20 years.

#137 disciple on 06.27.11 at 10:39 am

Are we completely powerless to stop the insanity? To deny the insanity all around you is to be insane yourself. I can tell who is insane just by noting who is denying they see it.

Ay’, there’s the rub…Rightfully, you have power over only one thing, your mind. Your reality is shaped by none other. Quantum Mechanics recognizes that matter exists only because we believe it to. At the zero-point, quarks jump into and out of existence by borrowing energy from the future. They are time-traveling. If you did not know, quarks are the basis for material existence.

Consciousness is the only reality. Why do humans have sinus cavities that serve no apparent function? I will tell you a secret borne from my many years of research: your brain is only an antenna, and the sinus cavities in your head and the shape and angle of your ears, serve only to attune the signal reaching it. The signal reaching it is broadcast from the Human Consciousness Field.

Your brain is only responsible for bodily function and motor nerve control. The higher realms of your divine spark emanate from the Human Consciousness Field that your mind is a part of. This is why your real rulers are heavily invested in maintaining mass illusions: this is the source of their power over you.

Let him that hath an ear, hear and understand wisdom.

#138 Ross Swanson on 06.27.11 at 10:43 am

The plan was hatched.

The work has been done.

Now all that has to happen is for the largest transference, ever, of capital and land to the banks.

Thank-you very much fools.

The banks are the new rulers of Canada…

And “we” appoint Stephen Harper as King of Kanada.

Thanks for playing, better luck next time.

#139 Utopia on 06.27.11 at 10:54 am

#101 Jen wrote……

“It makes me sick to my stomach to know that these fools our going around our country, at tax payer expense, and preaching their out of control children to behave with their money…..

Please, that is like saying to a drug addict to stop using it, and then turn around and providing them with all the cheap drugs that they want.”
—————————————————————————–

Oh, grow up Jen. What you are hearing now from government, what is different from “then” versus “now” is that we have a majority government that no longer needs to pander to the wasteful and spendthrift ideas of the opposition parties. You are getting the warning unfiltered now, get used to it.

It is coming from a party that is no longer at risk for delivering the blunt message and addressing the countries issues in a forthright manner. It is one that seeks to address the problems and concerns without being compromised by the bad politics that were watering down policy initiatives and good ideas.

I can appreciate that you at least acknowledge that consumers are foolish and irresponsible in their buying and debt accumulation decisions. Blaming government is a waste of your breath though.

Each and every one of us still needs to take personal responsibility for our own budgets. Did you really think the government should be in charge of you on a daily micro basis?

What I find stupefying about your remarks is that you acknowledge that current consumption practices are irresponsible, even alluding to credit being a drug, yet you object when you get a parental message warning you to get off the dope.

Easy credit was meant to be stimulative for the economy on many levels and was not targeted specifically at home buyers. So when did it become an excuse for you and others to surrender personal responsibility for your own day to day affairs? Sorry, I am not sympathetic.

Can’t have it both ways girl. Now grow up.

#140 dont stone de msger on 06.27.11 at 10:56 am

You say it may be too late, and you right maybe. Greed changed our province to 3rd world no-tax system. A buyer complains that he paid $300k+ in HST for a new house that the realtor pocketed, with a help of may the lawyer. Bibi CRA.
http://www.westca.com/Forums/viewtopic/t=371074/highlight=%C3%BB%BD%BB%BD%BB%D2%D7%CB%

#141 greg on 06.27.11 at 11:00 am

I am surprised most people dont talk about Greece on here, maybe Canadians dont realize how much the situation in Europe effects them and their house over here. It isnt just Greece either, Spain , Italy,Portugal, Ireland, England(not part of the Euro) are all in really really bad shape. If the Euro Goes the rest of the world will go with it. It should go though as its corrupt from the top down but then again so is the states, Half the refugees in the world are from american wars , I didnt realize killing people spread democracy, silly me.

#142 Steven Rowlandson on 06.27.11 at 11:03 am

Hello Garth.
I suppose the government could print cash to cover higher interest costs if rates have to rise but there are limits to that unless one really wants hyper inflation.
The real estate market would be devastated by any significant rise in interest rates due to the magnitude of real estate debts relative to personal incomes.
In a world run by smart people in a low interest rate environment real estate and government debtors would focus on serious debt repayment to mitigate the effects of any eventual rise in interest rates instead of indulging in price and debt inflation. Sadly not much has happened to reduce the risk of a debt crisis.
But like I say, people have to find out the hard way.

#143 Junius on 06.27.11 at 11:21 am

#124 The American,

I agree. People in Vancouver want to compare us to Seattle and San Francisco because we are West Coast but Vancouver is much more like Phoenix or Miami when it comes to Real Estate. Like them we are way, way over our affordability ratios and unlike Seattle and S.F. we do not have a solid local economy.

Vancouver is the bubbliest city in the world. Period.

If interest rates are rising as the house prices begin to fall we could see an overall decline well in excess of 50%. Or worse.

#144 JackRussell on 06.27.11 at 11:39 am

You saw how the people in Vancouver reacted when they didn’t win the Stanley Cup. Just wait to see what happens when they have to take a financial haircut.

#145 Utopia on 06.27.11 at 11:39 am

#77 Coho wrote….

“We’re perfectly capable of making enough mistakes on our own. We need help to avoid them, not help in making them.”
————————————————————————————-

Then buckle up, good looking, you are going to get your wish. Can you handle it when it comes?

#146 604genX on 06.27.11 at 11:42 am

There is no good reason to increase interest rates while unemployment is fairly high (and very high in the USA) and inflation is low. Real return bonds are suggesting long-term inflation of only 2.3% per year (see bottom chart in this link):

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

Unemployment well above pre-credit crisis levels:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/labour-travail/lfs-epa/lfs-epa-eng.htm

The global economy is far too fragile to raise rates.

But apparently those in power are somehow convinced rates must be raised. As Paul Krugman points out, it is a crazy plan and completely unjustified but that wont stop politicians and bankers….

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/27/the-urge-to-purge/

Hey Garth – maybe the politicians are simply talking up the threat of raising rates to dissuade people from borrowing more. Talk is cheap and sometimes effective.

#147 AG Sage on 06.27.11 at 11:47 am

#42 DJH and others

According to this site

Of the approximately 2500 immigrant investor applicants admitted to Canada each year, 70% are destined to Quebec. Yet statistics show that only about 30% of investor immigrants destined to Quebec actually settle there, as immigrants avail themselves of their Charter based mobility rights to settle elsewhere in Canada.

30% (federal admission) of 2500 is 750, so a 700 limit is almost no change, based on that data. Unless the new limit includes those from Quebec . . . It’s not clear.

this site

Of the 252,179 immigrants Canada selected in 2009, just 2,872 (i.e. just over 1%) were selected by our federal government for this purpose.

There is a good analysis here for someone with more time today than I have.

#148 Patrick on 06.27.11 at 11:59 am

It’s about time but better late than never.

The July 1 change in investor program’s 700 quota is not 700 families but 700 people. If you use the average of 4 people for a family that means 175 family’s are allowed annually under the investor program.

Between realtors and Chinese newspapers this news has much more shock value than the Japanese Earthquake of March 11. No pun intended.

The end of 35yr was March 18 and many were pre-qualified and were given 120 days to buy. The end of the 120 day rate guarantee will be July 18.

The timing of the federal gov’t to have both these events line up in July is like pouring gasoline then lighting the match. Hope you all like marshmellows.

#149 J:LG on 06.27.11 at 12:14 pm

Just wanted to get the word out in a few places about a scam my wife and I ran across.
We’re a growing family looking for a larger pad to sprawl. The plan being that we’ll buy once we see some sort of stabilization in the RE market. (No pressure from the silky ball and chain as she witnessed the carnage down Tampa way) Long story short, there is a LOT to be had as far as rentals here in Cow Town, this is where we came across something smelling of sun tanning carp:
An ‘Owner’ of a property here in Calgary accepted a job down Cali way leaving ‘his’ property in need of a tenant. The price is a steal for $1000/mth with a $900ish DD with all utilities, en-suite w&D, 1200 sqft, heated parking. Too good to be true? Maybe so, we contacted the ‘owner’ via e-mail and got the skinny.

He’s working state side for the next 2 years and needs a tenant to take care of his place, money not being an issue. He has the place available ASAP but is willing to wait till Sept when our lease is up. This carp is really beginning to stink. The owner call’s us, (6:30am Cali time) but as the number is unknown, we let it go to the machine. No message. The same number calls back 2 min later again no message. He sends an e-mail saying that he just tried to call. The area code is for Ohio. We take a closer look at the ad in rentspot.com and the area code is for Connecticut. He sends another e-mail stating that he’ll send us a package with the keys to the pad, a copy of the lease as well as a receipt for the DD and first month, which he requires us to western union him today. Red flags all over. We refresh the listing and it has ‘expired’.

If there is one, there will be others. Be careful out there.

#150 Hoof - Hearted on 06.27.11 at 12:16 pm

Well, the start of summer, July 1st is usually a witching hour for Gov’ts ….start of holidys and hence distractions.

Usually planned months in advance..hence they saw the need months ago.

Most people are probably not aware of it….its not well reported.

#151 Dorothy on 06.27.11 at 12:30 pm

While Real Estate still appears to be a fairly “hot” commodity in a few specific markets, most of Canadian Real Estate has already begun to drop in price. There hasn’t been a crash, but there is a definite “market softening” taking place. Serious sellers are having to settle for far less than they could have got 3 or 4 years ago. And as Buyers have noticed this drop, those who do not HAVE to buy right now are hanging on, waiting to see if prices will fall any further. Which of course starts a vicious circle of more price drops, followed by even more buyer reluctance as they wait for even bigger price drops.

All of this has absolutely NOTHING to do with interest rates, and a heck of a lot to do with consumer confidence. Which seems odd at a time when many Canadian Companies are actually doing quite well. For example, the company my spouse works for is actually extremely busy right now dealing with orders from several larger companies. Believe it or not they have more work than they can handle. So why all the doom and gloom? Because it’s all you hear or read about in the media these days. Nothing postive, all negative, and consequently people are scared.

If consumer confidence continues to deteriorate, we are heading into another recession as sure as night follows day. And Carney and F trying to talk RE markets in hot spots such as Vancouver down with all this scary talk about interest rates is merely adding fuel to the fire of deteriorating public confidence in the rest of Canada.

Interest rates are not going to go up significantly until the economy improves. And although they WILL eventually rise, it could be quite a while before it happens. In the meantime though, what this country needs to hear from their government are positive stories about the economy, not endless doom and gloom.

The country needs reality, not stories. — Garth

#152 Todd on 06.27.11 at 12:30 pm

“Since then the house I wanted went up 30%. So in the event of an unlikely 20% price down, I would be still 10% up. ”

This is part of the problem. Your average potential or actual home buyer doesn’t understand how percentages work. Kind of “need to know” territory with a mortgage.

For instance, if you have a house that increases in value 30%, then decreases 20%, you are NOT looking at a 10% net increase. You’re looking at a 4% net increase because that 20% drop was off of the high water mark, not the original price you paid! Add in closing and related costs on a $500k property and you end up maybe breaking even.

It’s going to be fun watching all those rubes get a crash course in math.

And just for the record, I think a 20% decrease in Vancouver is pretty damn optimistic.

#153 Canuck Abroad on 06.27.11 at 12:48 pm

232 / TurnerNation on 06.26.11 at 4:18 pm
Realtor’s condo listings in Whister BC:
5 ads state New Price, or Reduced!
11 ads, and one is sold.
http://whistler.kijiji.ca/c-PostersOtherAds-W0QQUserIdZ4334620

TurnerNation – Whistler has been suffering for years now. Did you happen to notice on the 3rd to last listing (Four Seasons, 219k) that it says the price is more than 50% lower than was paid in 2002.

Some of the decline so far was due to American owners selling up due to financial stress. But as far as I know the locals (i.e. Vancouver owners) have held on. If Vancouver becomes financially stressed there may be another wave of selling.

#154 Hoof - Hearted on 06.27.11 at 1:08 pm

If HAM is a herd mentality, it appears its dispersed.

More and more “for sale” signs…even brand new lived in homes.

New homes under construction/near completion have been For Sale for weeks.

#155 mad vancouver on 06.27.11 at 1:27 pm

I am willing to believe that most Canadians have better math skills than Charles!
30% up followed by 20% down IS NOT = 10% up ;)

#156 jess on 06.27.11 at 1:39 pm

Foster, 35, was arrested yesterday at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport returning from Bangkok and charged with bank fraud, according to a statement today from U.S. Attorney Loretta Lynch in Brooklyn, New York.
Gary Foster

Mr. Foster, who supervised a derivatives unit, was based in the bank’s office tower in Long Island City. He worked in the internal treasury finance department, which funds loans and other business transactions inside Citigroup.

In a series of eight transfers, between July and December 2010, about $900,000 of the money he allegedly took came from the bank’s interest expense account, while an additional $14.3 million came from its debt adjustment account, the complaint said. The transactions went unnoticed until a recent audit, a Citigroup investigator told the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the complaint says. In one transfer cited by the authorities, he allegedly wired himself $3.9 million on Nov. 8, 2010. Mr. Foster allegedly put phony contract or deal numbers in the reference lines for his wire transfers to make them look like they were for legitimate contracts.
=

… it’s the “mismatched word and those financing financing vehicles that get one “around”

China Auditor Finds Irregularities in $1.7 Trillion Local Government Debt
China’s first audit of local government debt found liabilities of 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion) at the end of last year and warned of repayment risks, including a reliance on land sales.

Financing vehicles set up by regional authorities already had more than 8 billion yuan in overdue debt, while more than 5 percent of such companies used new bank borrowing to repay loans, according to the audit, posted on the National Audit Office’s website and submitted to China’s cabinet
Five of China’s commercial banks have issued 58 billion yuan of loans that violated loan rules, it said.

#157 norm12 on 06.27.11 at 1:54 pm

Don’t know if rates are going to go up much if at all this year, Mark was sounding pretty dovish in a WSJ interview last week:

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/06/27/reading-the-tea-leaves-on-carneys-dovish-wsj-comments/

Also of all things Australia central bank is even talking about a rate cut!

This against the backdrop of Greek mess, Japan disaster, USA debt ceiling raise or not circus to begin, and Middle East turmoil……I don’t think that rates are going to go up this year, not unless somehow some of those problems are resolved and inflation starts to tick higher.

#158 garrulous squirrel on 06.27.11 at 2:01 pm

Carney and Flaherty are jawboning smoke up our collective butts. They plan to do nothing about rates. Flaherty and Harper have loaded up the national debt into the Trillion dollar mark……they have the provinces and local governments in hock up to the eyeballs……all dependant on being able to roll over the debt on the cheap…on the backs of the taxpayer. If rates go up…so do the costs to government debt.

Bottom line…they don’t give a crap about the consumer.

All this ‘I warned you crap’ is just that. They want to appear to be aware of the nightmare they have created by being able to say ‘I told you so’…….The proof is in the pudding mes amis……………..watch as they do nothing while pontificating about their godliness and civic spirit.

We saw yesterday how politicians pay each other for nasty policy and back room deals when it was announced that Gordon Campbell was given a plum post in London. This is the most hated man in BC history…..and he gets to ba ‘ambassador’. What next…..Willy Picton for PM?

#159 debtified on 06.27.11 at 2:05 pm

#150 Dorothy on 06.27.11 at 12:30 pm

….

In the meantime though, what this country needs to hear from their government are positive stories about the economy, not endless doom and gloom.
——-
The country needs reality, not stories. — Garth

***********************************************

Yep, reality, that’s what we really need. We’re all living in fairy tale land at the moment. Others even have the audacity to call it the new paradigm – the new “reality”.

For me, this way of thinking is the number one reason for our problems. Classic – just like that fable about the emperor with no clothes.

The other two reasons (among many others) are:

– People like Charles who can’t do simple math but have the gall to blame others of their own actions or inactions (and the resulting misfortunes)
– People who can’t look beyond the “Current Value – Purchase Price” calculation; totally ignoring transaction costs, lost opportunity costs, carrying costs and borrowing costs.

I’ll repeat what I said earlier: One morning people will wake up. H, F & C will no longer be there but the enourmous debt remains. That’s reality no one can’t avoid – just like death and taxes.

Nevertheless, it’s all much too late now. You’ve been warned. The best thing to do now is ask yourself this before all else: When reality sets in, what will you do then?

#160 Catlady on 06.27.11 at 2:15 pm

This news about the new quotas was kept super quiet!! Not many news hits on the web. Just hits from immigration companies. How sneaky to not release the news!

#161 r on 06.27.11 at 2:19 pm

“The end of 35yr was March 18 and many were pre-qualified and were given 120 days to buy. The end of the 120 day rate guarantee will be July 18.”

i think you needed a binding agreement for that, and i don’t think “preapproved” = binding agreement.

#162 Dan in Victoria on 06.27.11 at 2:29 pm

Dorothy @150
What the people need to be told is the truth.
It may hurt and may cause a lot of anguish.
It’s all going to come out anyhow.

#163 VanIsle Retireee on 06.27.11 at 2:45 pm

Well, I didn’t win one of the books in the latest Garth Giveaway Contest, but I will wade in once more.
If the Feds really want to shut down the shoeshine boy and his friends buying big houses with somebody else’s money, get rid of the gov’t backed insurance on the mortgage and make the banks responsible for governing their own lending practices. I think our banks are a bit too conservative-minded to want the risk associated with loaning money to people who cannot afford it. But if the gov’t keeps backing them up, why not take the money?

#164 namaste on 06.27.11 at 2:45 pm

well said, #136 disciple.

too many believe themselves to be much less than they actually are.

we are trained to think this way. keeps people down. reduces inherent strength.

it pleases me greatly to know that there are more and more others leaving the cave.

namaste.

#165 Dorothy on 06.27.11 at 2:57 pm

When I said people need to hear more than just “doom and gloom” I wasn’t suggesting they be lied to. But it’s not ALL doom and gloom out there folks, and I think a few positive stories about the economy are in order now and again. That’s all.

Because if all people hear is doom and gloom, it quickly becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

There ARE sectors of the economy that are doing very well, and I think people need to know that. Not EVERYONE is either unemployed or living in fear of becoming so.

Yes the world economy isn’t is the best of shape, and yes there are far too many people who ARE unemployed. But lets here some of the good stuff occasionally too please. Particularly from our own government. NOBODY can live on a steady diet of depressing news!

#166 Devore on 06.27.11 at 3:09 pm

#25 Tim

Even if it grinds down slowly, it will never lose 79% of its value. Cities in the states like Seattle or San Fran have dropped no where near 79%

As you’ve been informed already, you only need a 44% drop to undo a 79% rise.

But, you may not have read the news in the last year or so. Had you, you would know lofty Seattle is now down more than the national average of 35%+, and San Francisco is getting up there as well. Keep in mind that posh and expensive areas, such as the desirable SF neighbourhoods, have not gone up as much as the more speculator-friendly areas, so the pullbacks will be smaller as well.

If you’re gonna look at the average, look at the average. But you cannot apply average numbers to specific markets. Leave that to the xREB monthly news releases; you can do better.

#167 Devore on 06.27.11 at 3:42 pm

#148 J:LG

If there is one, there will be others. Be careful out there.

The scam is older than I am. I run into it when I was looking for a rental last year. Almost always the property is underpriced vs market (first flag) because money is not an issue, just looking for someone to “look after” the place. You contact them to schedule a viewing, like a responsible renter, they tell you they are out of the country, and to just mail them the deposit and 1st month rent, and they will send the keys via mail for immediate possession. Through this process you deal with more than one, usually related person (husband/wife), possibly with phone numbers with area codes that do not match their story.

Yeah, thanks but no thanks.

#168 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.27.11 at 3:53 pm

#75 Cato — “. . . you just set the conservative party back to the dark ages – you think anger over the GST was bad…”

Plus the HST. The TV and radio ads all say the HST will be dropped to 10%, but no mention is paid to the numerous other items that Gordon Campbell added (as per C-H-F’s prodding) to be taxed as well, all of which were untaxed before.

Can anyone see that the west’s various have bare cupboards, with nothing to back it up?

#110 debtified — “. . . H, F & C will be gone. $x,000,000,000,000 of debt will remain.” — Unless that is a parting gift from us taxpayers to them!

#114 and #115 Steady Eddie — “Who needs this debt monetary system? RISE UP!!!!!!!!!!! Governments serve banking interests and the major corporations….”

There is a good summation of events!

#134 disciple — “But the end is only a new beginning.” — Bingo! This, too, shall and must pass away (the sooner the better).

#136 disciple — “Are we completely powerless to stop the insanity? this is the source of their power over you.”

No, we are not powerless to stop the insanity — I choose to avoid it. Consequently, no one has any power over me, which I like.

When I finish my short physical life here, I simply return to the other worlds, inner planes or other side (it is a glorious experience), find out where I’m going next and go. That was a really good post! If Chaos is around, he / she will know what we’re talking about.

#137 Ross Swanson — “The banks are the new rulers of Canada… And “we” appoint Stephen Harper as King of Kanada.” and #149 Hoof – Hearted — “…hence they saw the need months ago. Most people are probably not aware of it….”

Two first-class posts dealing with the reality of today — good writing! For other posters who have said “. . . the world economy is too weak for interest rate hikes . . .”, remember what Trudeau once said: “Just watch me!” Further, #78 Jsan — “Central banks should hike rates, BIS says”.

#159 Catlady — “How sneaky to not release the news!” — What else can we expect from the CPC? This is their style of leadership, and they have a majority to do as they please.

#169 Sail1 on 06.27.11 at 3:58 pm

#29 Mark Carney the Joke

What would you have done differently if the roles were reversed?

Please enlighten us with your superb intellect.

#170 a girl who can not stand spellcheckers on 06.27.11 at 4:04 pm

hey there beach girl on 06.26.11 at 10:12 pm
also I think it’s spelled Engineering, not Enginering.

But hey I could be mistaken.

I am not interested in having spell checker here. Just move along….don’t stop here.
I am sure you will find mistakes in my writing. You know what I don’t care. I speak and write in three languages. How many languages you can read and write?

#171 Perpetual Growth Is Insane on 06.27.11 at 4:07 pm

Perhaps this is a first step towards the government taking a long overdue stand against the mass immigration lobby. Immigration is needed, at sensible numbers (50k yearly). What has happened in this country over the last 20 years has cost billions of dollars more than what has been brought in from new taxes. The GTA, Lower mainland, and Montreal areas do not need more density.

http://www.immigrationreform.ca/index.shtml

#172 Chuck D on 06.27.11 at 4:08 pm

Garth – Your last line in today’s post was great!

#173 Hoof - Hearted on 06.27.11 at 4:09 pm

Probably another warning sign

I am now seeing new Real Estate companies pop – up….new brands of For sale signs.

#174 Keith in Calgary on 06.27.11 at 4:14 pm

Too bad that Charles, your commenting blog reader, can’t do math……that 10% he figures is left would easily be eaten up by the 5 – 10% discount he’d have to give in order to sell the place, the 7% RE fees he’d have to pay to the agent, and then there is that pesky thing called the cost and use of money in carrying the beast for the last few years.

Oh yee of feeble minds……..

#175 Al on 06.27.11 at 4:16 pm

I have 27% loan to market value on my home currently and the laon is a HELOC from which I can borrow a further $300K. Should I use the $300K to invest in dividen paying stocks?

#176 maria on 06.27.11 at 4:22 pm

calgary – realtor.ca
– residential inventory increasing-

may 26 – 249,369
june 26 – 257,997
= 8,628 more residentials on the market – a 3.46% inventory increase in the past month

#177 Utopia on 06.27.11 at 4:22 pm

Here is the full text of the Wall Street Journal interview with Mark
Carney on June 25th. It seems obvious to me, after reading these comments, that we should not anticipate any rate increases in the near future.

Mr Carney will be aware as anyone that the global economy is now showing signs of slowing and this will have a dampening effect on inflation concerns as commodity prices retrace some of their tremendous gains.

What I have really taken from his comments though is that his approach is going to be “wait and see” while monitoring inflation concerns over the coming months.

Mr Carney notes “You don’t turn to monetary policy first, the principle is that there are other tools that are the best tools to address the risk of excesses developing in housing, and they should be deployed first.”

I agree. Our problems are not simply monetary but rather regulatory and policy oriented. These can easily be dealt with by establishing controls where bank lending is seen to be excessive, by tightening up more on CMHC practices and with a variety of options such as increased down payments or shorter amortization periods.

Some of these ideas have already been implemented. More may be warranted if the situation won’t cool down (I think we have already arrived at the end of our exuberance phase though, so it is likely already too late). It might be time for banks to staple a pamphlet describing “Credit Risks and debt” to every new mortgage application though.

Reprinted from Wall Street Journal, June 25th, 2011
Canada’s Housing-Boom War.
http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/markets/newsfeeditem.aspx?id=148573656216220

#178 BPOE on 06.27.11 at 4:28 pm

Vancouver trending much much higher long term. Has nothing to do with salaries or employers.
Interest rates will not rise significantly for decades if at all. Very good chance of interest rate CUT. Values do NOT return to the mean. Stay tuned.
______________________________________
.#124 The American on 06.27.11 at 9:45 am
AT #25: Tim, you stated, “Cities in the states like Seattle or San Fran have dropped no where near 79%.”

Your comment is true. However, cities like Seattle and San Francisco did not experience the extreme nature in run up on home prices like Vancouver in such a short period of time. San Francisco at peak had affordability ratios of about 9:1, Seattle was about 6:1, and Vancouver is nearing 13:1. That’s a significant difference there in Vancouver. When you couple that with the fact that salaries in Vancouver are much lower than they are in San Francisco, then, well, you start to get the picture. Vancouver’s going to have a massive correction like never witnessed before in Canada. We’re not talking some measly 25% haircut. Vancouver WILL have a 40%+ correction in home values. Mathematically AND statistically speaking, its impossible for it NOT to have this kind of correction. Still, even with 40%+ correction, this wouldn’t even return it to the mean, which we ALL know that values always return to the mean.
.

#179 Hoof - Hearted on 06.27.11 at 4:34 pm

Interesting how US Goldman…er ” Gov’t Sachs” has had parties of Jewish background at the FED…..but Canada’s BoC Governors has been pretty WASPY ain’t it?

Governors of the Bank of Canada

Mark Carney (2008 – present)
David A. Dodge (2001 – 2008)
Gordon Thiessen (1994 – 2001)
John Crow (1987 – 1994)
Gerald Bouey (1973 – 1987)
Louis Rasminsky (1961 – 1973)
James Coyne (1955 – 1961)
Graham Towers (1934 – 1954)

#180 Big D on 06.27.11 at 4:36 pm

Okay, I can’t believe no one has addressed Vancouver Shocks (#99 & #100) yet. Is it because it would be like arguing with the homeless guy off his meds yelling at the invisible guy on the street?

Seriously?
“There are more chinese multi millionaires than canada’s 33 million of population.” Okay, straight from your ass to my ears. You’re off by about 30x.

Your use of the term “world class” gives you away. Vancouver has always been the fat girl telling herself she’s pretty. Guess what? No one in NYC, LA, London, etc. calls their city “world class”. It just is. They don’t all self-affirm it to be true.

I remember when Expo 86 came around and it put Vancouver on the map. Everyone in the world will come here and love us! Sorry, I can’t name another world’s fair in the past 25 years. Do they still happen?

One more shot since I’m ranting. The Olympics? No, it was the Winter Olympics. The slow cousin of the real Olympics. Total flashback to the crap people spewed around Expo 86. Sorry, the Winter Olympics happen in mostly smaller places that no one’s heard of (Lake Placid, Albertville, Nagano, Lillehammer), not “world class” cities.

It’s embarrassing to hear people go on and on about Vancouver. No one cares.

#181 R on 06.27.11 at 5:00 pm

#26……I agree….No such thing as a soft landing……POP…..Panic…..and Tears

#182 maxx on 06.27.11 at 5:46 pm

#35 Ralph Cramdown on 06.26.11 at 9:45 pm

“Meanwhile, RBC’s bragging about personal loans for prime +1/2 when everyone else is prime+1, and showing those commercials in which the first thing the young couple does after buying the house is throw a perfectly serviceable kitchen countertop into a dumpster. These ads are repeated hundreds of times. Advertising works.”

It certainly does- was in my local bank recently and spoke to one of the suits, telling him that they really ought to rethink the poster of two snickering tarts sashaying down Main St., arms akimbo, laced up with colorful bags of purchases, given this pathetic economic environment and current average debt levels. He nodded intently and said he’d bring it up at the next meeting. Months later, it’s still there, not that I expected any sensible action- I really wanted to see his reaction.
Banks make such a huge stink about “corporate responsibility”, complete with glossy brochures, whilst having an appalling practice of it.

#183 jess on 06.27.11 at 6:20 pm

sports team as an atm
Chapter 11 bankruptcy. LA dodgers

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/dan_shaughnessy/06/27/dodgers/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

===

German economist Stefan Homburg argues that euro-zone members should not bail out Greece, discusses who is making a profit from the crisis and explains why he himself is buying Greek bonds. “I believe in the boundless stupidity of the German government,” he says

Homburg: No. The contagion spreads in precisely the opposite direction, because many banks and hedge funds benefit from the following business model. Step one: They sell the bonds of the country concerned. Step two: They spread negative rumors about the country. Step three: After bond prices have fallen, they buy them back cheaply. And, finally, they take governments for a ride with this nonsense that a default would have devastating consequences. In a zero-sum game, there are not only losers, like us taxpayers, but also winners.
Efforts to extend Greek debt may require similar efforts at fixes, and if they aren’t fully effective, it could have a chilling effect on the CDS market (not that we think that is a bad outcome, mind you). But even with all the powers that be out to preserve the product and avoid roiling the markets, the conflicting objectives of various players may render that outcome not so easy to achieve.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,770673,00.html

..”the International Swaps and Derivatives Association implemented “protocols” by which any two counterparties, by mutual consent, substitute cash settlement for physical delivery
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/satyajit-das-default-semantics-credit-default-swaps-greece.html

#184 bill on 06.27.11 at 6:25 pm

”Interesting how US Goldman…er ” Gov’t Sachs” has had parties of Jewish background at the FED…..but Canada’s BoC Governors has been pretty WASPY ain’t it?”

gee why is it so interesting who farted?

#185 bill on 06.27.11 at 6:31 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP_X7cb-gwU

”What Ferguson means is that ideologies frequently employ “the race card” in order to motivate their followers. The most well known example being National Socialism (Nazism), an ideology that used the idea of racial superiority to further their barbaric goals. If motivation to violence is much quicker and easier to accomplish by using race–then is it really about ideology? Or race? Is there a difference? The idea of “Race” is an artificially constructed ideology with no basis in human biology.”

great documentary by ferguson.
the preceding quotes are from the uploader and i would certainly agree.

#186 Snowman on 06.27.11 at 6:32 pm

#123 Kim 1

“I think you forgot he couldn’t live under a tree.”

No, I haven’t forgot, that’s the reason I’ve mentioned the rent money he threw out the window.

” You also forgot the taxes etc etc he would have to pay ‘had’ he owned for five years.

In case you haven’t noticed, Charles was/is on the market to buy a house. Whether you buy a house today, or ten years down the road the taxes are still going to be there, only higher.

” Plus you forgot the investment income he earned on his ‘liquidity’ … for five years… “

I don’t think I forgot the “investment income”, is just that he did not mentioned anything about any “investment income”. Also you talk about this so called “investment income” just like is guaranteed or something. Whomever told you that ask him how long before he recoups what he lost in the past several years?

“should I go on … “

Well, you’ve embarrassed uself quite a bit, but then if you want more I say go for it …..

#187 garrulous squirrel on 06.27.11 at 6:39 pm

Dorothy…you’re obviously one of those ‘MY glass is half full’ kind of people. Reality for a lot of people is tthat the glass is half spilled. It’s one thing to be happy and bright about a fat government salary and pension…those goofballs are always laughing. But…..for the majority of Canadians..they’re behind the eight-ball and life is a miserable grind. Look at the 150 thousand Canadians who let their frustrations out a the Vancouver riots….thats a societal statement….from the heart of darkness.

The TV land advertising is simply a fantasy land for most people….only debt can make you feel better. Lets face it , there isn’t enough money left after taxes to live the lifestyle thats promoted out of the box……people’s frustration builds…….and builds.

Vancouver …for ex…..is a perfect example and the recent rioting was a perfect catharsis…….it is a town built on lies……’best place on earth’….bwhahahahaha ..that comes from the tourism, real estate and hospitality lobbies…not the people. Of course its easy to believe because its on constant rotation from the media through the barrage of advertising. But over time peoples expectations are built up and constantly let down…..disonance is like a fire burning in your gut. Thats reality for a majority of people here. They are poor….a lot of them are hungry…they are in debt up thier eyeballs….they have to steal…send their kids to school hungry…..watch their parents eat kibbles…………………..The mortgage is forcing them to act like antisocial troglodytes…..dinner is from the food bank.

Sure Dorothy…if you’re a fat cat union member with an indexed pension to look forward to you can blow every penny you earn and always have that fat juicy pension to look forward to………….it’ll pay for your SUV so that you can drive through the crowds of hungry kids and seniors lined up at the food banks.

Enjoy your good life………it’s a long way down eh? Let them eat cake says Dorothy.

#188 Sunny on 06.27.11 at 6:40 pm

ugh, i feel badly for your reader that bought Yellow media a few days ago.
For a change of topic why don’t you blog about stock picks, not just preferred bank shares but some good picks on dividend paying stocks. Let readers contribute their choices.
We all know your position on Real Estate so lets talk alternatives for a change.

No. — Garth

#189 Stevermt on 06.27.11 at 7:08 pm

#134 disciple..ok …whoa , wait a minute space cowboy…technically speaking you don’t believe in peak credit and debt ok fine…

Peak oil and peak resources are technically declining because we happen to live on a sphere that despite your wishing or praying is finite. Peak oil is not an “Idea”
that someone just made up…please google Hubbert, die-off.com and Life after the oil crash,this might help you get up to speed here on planet Earth.

Where do you suppose the powers that be are hiding the extra oil ??When you make statements like that you’re just not credible anymore. Magical thinking will not rescue us from this reality.

I suggest you educate yourself, all knowing sage, about
peak oil and resources and the ramifications of our civilization having to live on less of them.

Now fly off to your other planet(s), where I’m sure there is infinite everything…sky’s the limit !!

#190 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.27.11 at 7:18 pm


Electrical Grid “. . . major change to the US electrical grid coming in a few weeks . . .” — Just about the same time the US hits their default date (Aug. 2); Microsoft files patent allowing US govt. to spy; Microsoft adding eavesdropping to Skype; Genetic Engineering on fast forward (to replace sheeple); Genetic Modification gone loopy.

Cost of police brutality. In Denver, it’s quite high; Gaza and Greece “The government of Greece just showed themselves to every bit the whores for Israel that the US and Canadian governments are!” wrh.com; The US is the biggest terrorist state in the world, and Kannaduhhh is probably not that far behind now.

3:11 clip Oil – Gold Water (take); Gadaafi (kill him). Retribution will make a swift comeback; Greece Your moment in the sun is now! BoA Sumtin’z not quite right with their pieces of paper; Gary Foster, ex-VP of Citigroup charged with fraud (now where has that word been?); Cartoons QE explained via cartoons with Ben Bernanke as host; China “Of course, it was easy for China to defeat the United States. China cheated! They kept their manufacturing!” wrh.com; Rare Earth’s prices skyrocket; Wednesday Interesting day for Greece – EU – IMF; Enter The Dragon “Brilliant move on China’s part! They are taking that stack of spending cash Bernanke printed up to buy back some of that US debt, and now China will use it to save Europe, thereby undermining America’s (and the IMF’s) influence over that part of the world! Shah Maht (Checkmate); the game is over.” wrh.com.

Greek Military and civil war; Balanced Budget in yer dreams! US Fed “It is not really part of the federal government; it is merely a subcontractor for monetary policy…”; 5:02 clip Wall St. crumbling? Monetary revolution and alternative money; Shut down the IMF, NATO, the WTO — they are of not much use to anyone now!

#191 Imstupid on 06.27.11 at 7:18 pm

Hey Garth

I had question for you, or anyone else on here.

I was thinking, could it be that the liberals purposely threw the election? Seems crazy right, they would have to be intelegent. Hear me out on this, why would a political party elect a leader that all the polls said was unelectable? Why would they not spent money on advertising? Why did they not go door to door as did all others running for office?

I can only speak for what I would do, if I know a shit storm was comming. I would sit it out and let the others get burnt. Once the fire was out, I would roll in smelling like roses.

Any thoughts on this?

#192 jess on 06.27.11 at 8:06 pm

nostra mad vlad

purge for cesium 137
Prussian Blue (PB)/ferric hexacyanoferrate (II),
For information about possible countermeasures for internal contamination with Cs-137, please see CDC’s fact sheet on Prussian blue.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) protects people’s health and safety by preventing and controlling diseases and injuries; enhances health decisions by providing credible information on critical health issues; and promotes healthy living through strong partnerships with local, national, and international organizations

Where you can get Prussian blue
Prussian blue is available only by prescription. The CDC has included Prussian blue in the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS), a special collection of drugs and medical supplies that CDC keeps to treat people in an emergency.

http://www.fda.gov/Drugs/EmergencyPreparedness/BioterrorismandDrugPreparedness/ucm130337.htm

..” the drug for $100 for 30 grams even though the raw material is only $3,000/ton.????
(Truthout.org)

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Center for Disease Control (CDC) endorse PB as the safest fastest way to purge radioactive cesium from the body before it creates malignant cells.

The Radiological Accident in Goiânia

The Government and authorities in Brazil were faced with a tragic accident in Goiânia resulting from the misuse of a strongly radioactive medical teletherapy source not under radiation protection surveillance. The present report is divided into four part
STI/PUB/815, 1988, ISBN 92-0-129088-8, English. 31.50 Euro. Date of Issue: 16 September 1988. Full Text, (File Size: 6550 KB).
Subject Classification: 0609 – Radiation protection; 0610 – Accident response.

How to Order IAEA Publications
http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub815_web.pdf

#193 Devore on 06.27.11 at 8:20 pm

Just finished on the house porn channel: My First Sale. Couple lives in townhouse. Couple plans to have baby. Townhouse to small to raise family. Couple tries to sell their townhouse. Fails. Nearly a year later, after dropping price as far as they can, decide to keep their house on the market, but postpone plans for baby.

Oops. Not quite the picture of freedom home ownership is supposed to give, as painted by the RE industry and the “always goes up” crowd.

#194 Timing is Everything on 06.27.11 at 8:45 pm

Garth…There baaaack! The speling natzis.

#195 shanks on 06.27.11 at 8:53 pm

LAST!!

#196 Timing is Everything on 06.27.11 at 8:54 pm

#192 Timing is Everything

Hey Timing…It’s ‘they are’ or ‘they’re’, you moron.

I will attack you and point out your spelling and grammar mistakes, rather than your argument.

#197 palebird on 06.27.11 at 9:17 pm

179 Big D :

so true that town just makes me laugh

150 :

Geez Dorothy now what business would your hubby be in? Because commodities are still pretty hot here in Canada but the writing is all over the wall. Once the shine is off the resource sector there is very little left holding this game together. It will be a smackdown for a lot of people. I am old enough to have been through this before and it was an eye opener. But what absolutely amazes me is how easily people forget and get lulled into this false sense of security. It is a result of being glued to the tv screen or whatever time wasting experience you are into and not paying attention to the real world. The world will not end but we are heading down a slippery slope and when I look at the people around me whom I would like to think are knowledgeable it bothers me. Because most are blinkered idiots. Go to the Indian sub-continent, to Africa, the middle east and then come home. Tell me what you think.

#198 TurnerNation on 06.27.11 at 9:27 pm

#136 disciple on 06.27.11 at 10:39 am

That kind of explains the saying “my ears are burning” when you know someone is talking about you.
And how do we just “know” and feel when someone is looking at us from across a room.

We’re all connected.

I heard that some researchers found our stomach as a source of a lot of thinking/electrical activity.
Come to think of it, our intistines look much like one of those coiled up antennas in our cellphones!

And really we already know this, look at our sayings:

“I hate his guts”
“I could not stomach it”
“Sick to my stomach”
“Intestinal fortutude”
“I have a gut feeling”

Intestinal tract…”oh he dis-tracted me from my work”. Another saying.

#199 Renter-X on 06.27.11 at 9:54 pm

Garth,
Please explain why you allow mad vlad to keep posting. He can’t keep his vicious Jew and Israel hatred in his pants, and his presence in my view tarnishes and undermines your otherwise great blog. Why do you have to give a forum to crackpots and fools?
Thanks …

#200 Mr Buyer on 06.27.11 at 10:30 pm

#190 Imstupid…I suspect the same. The deficit alone could have been enough to win but being left holding the bag after this bubble will likely mean a decade or two out of power for whatever party happens to be in office. I am thinking a Science and Engineering party might be a good idea.

#201 TurnerNation on 06.28.11 at 7:52 am

#198 Renter-X on 06.27.11 at 9:54 pm

I read many of his links and do not find any hatred at all. Hatred sickens me. But I do like education and leaning about the agendas of the power classes. Israel is sadly being used at this time, being used to destabilize the middle east, funded by US tax payers and supported by Harper and co.
I am sure 95% of Israeli citizens are just like us and wish to raise their families in peace.
The 5% of wackos, the same 5% who have hijacked the US and Canada, are causing the trouble. And by the way they follow no god or anything good.
Psychopaths follow their own will. These 5% of people are ruining our world.

For example: would you dump poison down your own family’s own well? Of course not. But how to explain the toxic chemicals dumped into our wather supply, slowly killing us. Corporations did it! Pyschopaths love the corporate structure. Sure they poison our water and air, but we are told they “provide jobs to working families”.
Worth it? You decide.

#202 The American on 06.28.11 at 8:34 am

Vancouver Shocks = BPOE, FOLKS!

#203 Kim 1 on 06.28.11 at 9:08 am

Dorothy said “NOBODY can live off of a diet of depressing news’… time to click your heels Dorothy.

#204 Kim 1 on 06.28.11 at 9:13 am

I see your still shoveling, Snowman.

#205 disciple on 06.28.11 at 10:27 am

#198 Turner Nation….Yes, very interesting in that the stomach has a large number of nervous system connections that rival the brain itself, such that, I have heard it argued that it has a mind of its own, so to speak.

#206 disciple on 06.28.11 at 10:40 am

#189 Stevermt…I appreciate your response. I used to believe in peak oil and resources, but I no longer do. I have discovered (and shared with this blog) that crude did not originate from fossils or biotic material. It is a-biotic.

That’s why helium is only found with crude deposits. Massive and virtually unlimited supply of hydrocarbons and basic elements like Helium are formed by the Earth herself. We have taken out more in mass and volume out of the Earth than all of the estimated biological mass that has ever existed (including dinosaurs which I have also discovered to be a complete fable).

I accept your admonition to educate myself. That should be the continual and never-ending goal for myself and hopefully everyone else. Get back to me when you’ve done a little more research and then perhaps we can discuss on the level.
Peace out.

#207 No Fun Vancouver on 06.28.11 at 12:49 pm

Well its not easy being a renter in Vancouver, no wonder people want to buy: Most rentals these apply:

Bed bugs;
No pets allowed in most rentals;
No dishwasher;
1/2 stove and fridge;
No washer and dryer;

“worst nightclubs in the world”
“bars! what’s a bar, we only have restaurants”

#208 Wresternman on 06.28.11 at 5:12 pm

When I read Government programs and workers were being cut one though sprang to mind : GOOD! Lets hope the trend continues and intensifies.