Chick talk

Chad has a problem. His babe. “My girlfriend is wanting us to get into a starter home with the money we have saved as a down payment,” he moans (he’s got $85K). “I’ve stayed away from real estate since coming to Calgary in 2007. As the rent would be the same as the mortgage, how can I convince her that it’s a terrible idea? As I’ve been telling her for a couple years now any drop in prices would steal away our savings instantly. I need advice.”

Well, Chad, if you’ve come to this pathetic blog recently you already know the answers. Economy slowing fast. Household debt out of control. Real estate saturation. Price inflation. Lousy demographics. Tighter credit. In fact, other than cheap interest rates and the quest to nest, housing has precious little going for it right now.

I suppose you could seduce her with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (American real estate just passed the Great Depression in terms of collapsing values) since some of that’s bound to slop over here. Or melt her with the logic of the Certified General Accountants of Canada latest report. “Baby.” (Whisper it, dude.) “You know how I feel about you. Every succulent inch, every millimetre, every pore. I just ache to tell you this, but my national household debt-to-income ratio has swollen uncontrollably, explosively, to 146.9. Can you feel it?”

If that doesn’t work (highly unlikely), change gears, dude. Play the I-don’t-want-to-become-our-parents card, because the evidence is all around you that real estate not only eats romance, it sucks brains. How else to explain what we have just discovered is a national mess-up?

You see, Chad, the Boomers are imploding, and you can thank housing – because as hard as it might be to imagine, they were also once nubile, hot and horny for a place of their own. Actually, the lust for property has pretty much defined this generation. They grew up in a time of inflation and economic expansion, when it seemed like real estate would rise without end. So, a house became a financial plan, a retirement plan, an investment plan and a giant excuse for saving next to nothing.

Today the chickens have returned. Killer chickens.

Incredibly, just under 80% of the net worth of people over the age of 60 is in one single asset – their houses. This is not only lazy, it’s riddled with risk. Because here’s the other chicken: the average amount Canadians between 55 and 65 have saved to fund their entire retirement is $125,000. (Meanwhile younger people are little better – since 40% are saving nothing, even in their peak income-earning years.)

What does this mean?

Simply that lots of old farts will run out of money long before they run out of lives. Inflation and $1.30 gas don’t help. Neither do destitute governments about to cut back on spending and benefits. And to make matters worse, we’re living longer than ever – 80, 90, no problem.

So the issue for wheezy Boomers is not finding a place to live, it’s actually affording living. After all, houses cost money. Unlike assets that give you interest, dividends or capital gains, they don’t pay you to own them. At some point, all that equity stuffed in there has to be unleashed, as it becomes clear that putting most of your net worth in one thing was a truly dumb idea. Now, Chad, this is where it gets interesting.

There are nine million lecherous, jeans-wearing, Harley-riding, geriatric, live-for-today Stones fans out there who are part of this age group. Significant numbers of them will have no choice but to dump their houses and raise cash. A slew of listings will likely topple an already-wobbly residential real estate market and bring down prices while soaking up the diminished pool of buyers. Result: illiquid houses. Hideous wrinkly people trapped inside with their Duran Duran CDs.

Seeing this, others may try to suck money out of the homes while retaining them. This is where we find that God has a sense of humour, since she created the reverse mortgage. In fact, the country’s chief proponent of this HomeEquity Bank, just lowered the eligible age for reverse mortgages to 55. Now even younger fools can sell off a big chunk of their equity in return for a cheque to tide them over for a few years.

The lender says no repayments are required on this debt, but do people understand that it’s growing daily, and at a significant rate of interest? All accumulated interest is added to the principal outstanding, which has to be repaid when the property is sold, or when you croak. With the former, if real estate values have fallen, you could find any remaining equity erased by the rising debt. With the latter, you get to surprise your kids!

So Chad, see the lesson here? Lots of those who went before you and threw everything at a house are living to regret it. If they had the clock to rewind forty years, many would ensure they diversified their wealth, spread the risk, eschewed debt and refused to take their identity from a lousy pile of bricks. After all, it’s only a house. Not a surrogate for experience. No replacement for real security. Hardly an accomplishment. Just stuff.

Tell her the big news tonight. You’re buying her an ETF!

 

Beware of the Doghouse- Hilarious!For more funny movies, click here

196 comments ↓

#1 1milcrackshacks on 06.14.11 at 9:17 pm

If everyone moves from Van is there going to be anyone left to buy these shacks? Are these houses going to be the same as barkerville houses or old gold mining sites where people thought they were good as gold ?

#2 Shane on 06.14.11 at 9:18 pm

uno

#3 grand wazoo on 06.14.11 at 9:24 pm

Excellent post.

#4 roy stacey on 06.14.11 at 9:29 pm

Excelllebt Advice as usual. Did i read that right, that Chnad’s girlfriend wants to buy a house? Why not keep renting the house, after all you’re just renting the toots?

#5 roy stacey on 06.14.11 at 9:32 pm

oops…sorry for the typo’s….lost my right hand….life can be cruel.

#6 Elmer on 06.14.11 at 9:33 pm

It’s one thing to discourage people from investing in real estate (speculating is more like it), but it’s poor advice to discourage people from buying a house if it’s their primary residence. As long as they don’t get drawn into some stupid bidding war or something. The woman is looking for a house, not an investment. She doesn’t care if it goes up or down in value, she just wants a place she can call hers. Not everything is about net worth. Assuming they intend to live there for a while, and assuming they coudl still handle the mortgage if rates rise, why not buy? Besides, with 85k saved up, they can put down only half on the house (they’d be foolish to put down more with today’s low mortgage rates) and put the rest in some income-producing investment (maybe a REIT in their TFSAs), then they wouldn’t have more than half their net worth in their house.

#7 zombiedelight on 06.14.11 at 9:35 pm

Tell him you divorce, ahah

#8 bsallergy on 06.14.11 at 9:39 pm

Damn boomers! Wish they’d stop hitting my windshield.

#9 BuBu on 06.14.11 at 9:44 pm

I think boomers will sell their houses in 8-10 years not sooner. As long as they can work they will do it… The other reasons, debt, slow economy are the reasons but I think this one is going to be later.. maybe I’m wrong… but we’ll see…

PS. We have way more as a down payment but we keep renting… I think that’s the best option at this point even if we can take a 5y mortgage and pay it off. But we also own real estate in another place and have no debt so we don’t have any pressure to own here in AB.

#10 Cranky Cyclist on 06.14.11 at 9:47 pm

“Tell her the big news tonight. You’re buying her an ETF!’

Garth, you must have to fend off the women back with a stick! :) How come money is less sexy than a house?

#11 TurnerNation on 06.14.11 at 9:52 pm

Is this an early family photo or something? Coaxing Bandit I out of his kennel?

#12 Maxamillion on 06.14.11 at 9:53 pm

The girlfriend should start drinking heavily and smoke more pot. That’s what you do in Ontario to deal with reality. Let see, gas prices, debt and no savings.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com

#13 Aaron - Melbourne on 06.14.11 at 9:56 pm

The reverse mortgage phenomenon needs more exploration.

I would have thought that a reverse mortgage is held against the property. And in the event of death, the debt is recoverable against that security.

With declining property values, the reverse mortgage industry might get caught with its pants down?

A bunch of shoddily built condo’s sitting on the books in 15-20 years time might not be worth the book value.

*********************************************
Reverse Mortgages on the rise for retirees

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011 … ion=justin

A new report shows an increasing number of older Australians are turning to reverse mortgages to help them fund their retirement.

A study commissioned by the reverse mortgage industry found that $3 billion is now being borrowed against family homes in reverse mortgages, and that is an increase of more than 10 per cent in a year.

The market for reverse mortgages has not quite returned to the heady days before the global financial crisis.

However, there are strong signs that older Australians are using the financial product to make up for inadequate planning for their retirements.

“Many people are approaching retirement having concentrated their wealth in the family home and, whilst that has served them well in terms of wealth creation, when they get to retirement they find themselves asset rich and cash poor,” explained Kevin Conlon, the chief executive of SEQUAL, the Senior Australians Equity Release Association – the body representing the majority of reverse mortgage lenders.

“So a reverse mortgage is one method of releasing equity from the home in order to convert it into wealth that is more useful in retirement. The key to these transactions is to borrow what you need, when you need it.”

Mr Conlon says growth in reverse mortgages slowed during the financial crisis, but has since picked-up.

“It grew very rapidly around the years 2006, 2007 with a slow dip around the global financial crisis, but this year’s results are showing us that those growth trends are returning, with 22 per cent growth recorded in the reverse mortgage market during 2010.”

He argues that most reverse mortgages are not taking out through need, but as part of a retirement lifestyle choice.

“It is not so much a lend of last resort, but it is merely a reflection of the fact that [for] most senior Australians the majority of their wealth tied up in the family home – about 70 per cent of personal wealth, or nearly 70 per cent of the over 65-year-olds, it is simply the family home with very little other savings or superannuation,” he said.

“What is important to note is the average reverse mortgage borrower is around 75 years of age and, at that stage, they’ve probably been in retirement for 10 years and they are realising that the savings that they’ve accumulated over their working life are inadequate as Australians are now living longer and have the ambition to live well.”

Borrowers pay higher interest rates, on average about 2 per cent more on a reverse mortgage.

However, while they might not be happy to pay for the privilege, the chief executive officer of the National Information Centre on Retirement Investments Wendy Schilg says for many Australians there’s no other choice.

“As you get older it is more difficult to find money to live on and to have a comfortable retirement I suppose,” she said.

“We are particularly worried about the level of understanding of these products. We get five at least phone calls every day of people wanting more information about these products. Clearly the providers aren’t giving enough information.”

Wendy Schilg’s organisation provides independent advice on reverse mortgages, and she says many people do not understand what a reverse mortgage entails.

“Unfortunately when people are taking out or even thinking of taking out these reverse mortgages, a lot of people are in a very emotional state,” she said.

“They don’t want to admit that they need extra money to live on, so they are going to a provider, they are getting the information but they are not really listening and they are not taking it all in.”

She says many older people come to her organisation regretting their decision to take out a reverse mortgage.

“We’ve found that people are signing contracts and a couple of years down the road looking back and thinking the equity in my home is being eaten away severely and obviously it is because of the compounding interest,” she added.

“They then ring us and they are in a panic because they actually have been told on a general basis what is going to happen to the equity in their homes, but they haven’t actually listened properly.”

She says there is also an issue with some people being offered bigger loans than they need.

“This has always been one of our problems and we have a lot of case studies that are actually showing that this does happen far too often, unfortunately,” she said.

“People will ring up and say ‘I want a reverse mortgage’. They’ll be told how much they can actually get. If the borrower then turns around and says, ‘but I only wanted $20,000’, they are being told, ‘well maybe you should take the $40,000 because you don’t know what is going to happen in the future and you know, it is money that is available and you can put the extra $20,000 away until you need it.'”

#14 Aaron - Melbourne on 06.14.11 at 9:57 pm

http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate … 1f3s8.html

Reverse mortgage market set to rebound
Drew Cratchley
May 25, 2011 – 3:04PM

AAP

The proportion of retirees taking out reverse mortgages will grow in the coming years, as the borrowing option becomes an income supplement rather than a way of paying for holidays, an industry body says.

Restricted to outright home owners aged over 60, reverse mortgages are loans against the equity in a home, and require no repayments until the home is sold.

After their launch last decade, there were predictions of steady growth in the product, but the global financial crisis saw a decline in the value of reverse mortgages issued by lenders.

That’s now rebounding, according to new data from Deloitte.

The value of outstanding reverse mortgage loans stood at $3 billion at December 31, up from $2.7 billion 12 months earlier.

There were $322 million worth of reverse mortgage loans written in 2010 – equal to the amount written in 2008 – taking the number of loans to 41,600 at December 31, up seven per cent from a year earlier.

The average size of loans have continued to steadily increase, to nearly $72,500 as of December 31.

The Senior Australians Equity Release Association (SEQUAL), an industry body for the reverse mortgage market, says that average amount remains conservative.

It says it shows retirees are only borrowing what they need, rather than what they can get.

“What we are seeing is a very clear shift towards more caution and using it to supplement income,” SEQUAL chief executive Kevin Conlon said.

Almost 18 per cent of loans were used as a source of income, Deloitte said, while home improvement (15 per cent) and debt repayment (13 per cent) were the next most common uses.

The purchase of gifts (three per cent), travel (1.5 per cent) and cars (1.3 per cent) were further down the list of uses of reverse mortgage proceeds.

With an ageing population and an increasing focus on retiring with dignity, the reverse mortgage market would steadily grow in the next few years, Mr Conlon said.

“Reverse mortgages, or variations of them, are going to be as common as borrowing a home loan from a non-bank lender,” he said.

About two per cent of retirees currently took out reverse mortgages, but that proportion was likely to grow to five or 10 per cent, Mr Conlon said.

#15 Guy_in_Regina on 06.14.11 at 9:58 pm

You all know what else will go for a song when the boomers hit the wall?… Harleys. Oh boy oh boy oh boy.

Buzz off. We’re taking them with us. — Garth

#16 Mr. Reality on 06.14.11 at 10:01 pm

Don’t worry folks housing prices are going to rise perpetually just like stocks! Just ask Jim and BPOE

Meanwhile Mr. R. looks at his shorts and smiles……..waiting for the inevitable. When is that shoe going to drop Garth? Something tells me very very soon, maybe even sometime this month…..

Mr. R.

Your shorts can’t be that engaging. — Garth

#17 Ronaldo on 06.14.11 at 10:04 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/06/14/chinese-on-global-homebuying-spree-as-local-markets-tighten/

Chinese on global homebuying spree……so it’s not just Vancouver after all…

#18 Joe on 06.14.11 at 10:05 pm

I talked to my dear mum the other day about investing. I don’t remember how the topic came up exactly, but I thought that what I learned was scary. Her financial situation is just fine. She has a government pension, her modest home is paid off and has been for years and she is a frugal lady when it comes to daily expenses. Her financial knowledge was what troubled me, because of how many other people I imagine are in the same boat. She owns mutual funds in an RRSP, but she vehemently denied being an “investor.” “No, no, I just put the money in there to get the tax rebate. I’m not an ‘investor.'” She said that when her statements come from the bank she doesn’t understand them. “I just look at where it says what I’ve made.” She didn’t know that she’s essentially invested in stocks, she’s never heard of ETFs, has no idea what it costs to own mutual funds, mainly because she doesn’t understand the statements, so she doesn’t read them, thus doesn’t find that little fee hidden in among the numbers. She’s cheesed off that she doesn’t make money, but as she says, “It’s too late for me now. I’m not in it to make money.” Thankfully she’s been advised to draw on the money early, before age 71, and she puts it in a TFSA. What’s it in in the TFSA? Cash. Ack. My mum’s brain got saturated pretty quickly when we tried to explain to her that her bank has a brokerage branch where she could open an account. “Mum, do you think the banks are going to go bankrupt?” “No.” “Then don’t you want to own a piece of them?” “Well, yes, but how? I can’t do that. I don’t know about this stuff.” She was quick to throw up her hands. It’s a helplessness that I find sad and scary. I was one of those people owning mutual funds that were sold to me by the nice lady at the bank. Then I met my husband and we got educated together and did something about it. Now we have a brokerage account and a nicely diversified portfolio. It doesn’t have to be overwhelming. People don’t have to be helpless, but they’re taken advantage of by the people at the bank. Something needs to be done about that. Garth, I’d love to send her to you. Maybe little by little I can work some new ideas into her mind that it’s not too late. She’s got about 60K. She thinks it’s a small amount, but she could increase her standard of living or travel more, travel first class, come see her grandbaby more often just by investing that little bit of money more fruitfully. How do you get the message across when people hear those big scary investing words and their eyes just glaze over?

#19 SMOKING MAN on 06.14.11 at 10:06 pm

Again Garth you go with Facts, Logic, and Fundamentals, never taking into account the herd.

The pretty gorgeous wife competing with her rivals, other gorgeous wives.

The game!

The shiniest garnet, the most spectacular gleaming hardwood, and the dumb hubby who only has one thing on his mind, little brain thinking for the big head. She with a warm touch and a whisper in the ear can get him to sign just about anything so she can keep playing.

You see bro I play poker and I am damn good, I don’t play the cards I play the players, I read them I study them, I crush some, I avoided some, been doing t along time.

There is still a lot more milk in the Canadian Real estate Market, does it make sense that a guy with pocket 2s goes all in pre flop cause he saw it on tV. Nope.

But people are stupid and in poker stupid people are why you need several racks when you cash in my chip.

I love life

#20 Ronaldo on 06.14.11 at 10:08 pm

http://www.china.org.cn/business/2011-06/15/content_22786192.htm

More on Chinese real estate…..

#21 45north on 06.14.11 at 10:13 pm

Elmer: She doesn’t care if it goes up or down in value, she just wants a place she can call hers.

Here’s a post from 2007, just after the American housing market had hit its all time high:

My wife’s best friend is married to a mortgage broker. The other day she actually started hitting on me, saying “I could be your second wife”.

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=3394

#22 JohnnyBGood on 06.14.11 at 10:19 pm

The economic impact of boomer demographics will affect far more than just housing.

Boomers are retiring at the same time that the biggest credit bubble in the known universe (including Borg space) is deflating (coincidence?) and the Western world is deleveraging––despite the efforts of The Bernanke, Jean-Claude Trebuchet, and other central hackers.

The huge upswing in reverse mortgages that is sure to take place will be partly responsible for the seismic shift in sentiment that younger generations will have vis-a-vis owning a home. “You mean I have to give it back when I die? WTF!?”

They will see how owning a home can become a financial anchor that chains you to a bank and puts you into debt servitude for life, with nothing to show for it after you expire––er, retire.

That’s not to say some won’t want to own their own home, but a house will no longer be considered an investment–at the very least.

There are ways to potentially avoid this, such as a massive productivity boost on the scale of the industrial revolution, coupled with carefully orchestrated global immigration plans. However, this can only work if we have cheap energy (not likely), no economic ramifications from environmental issues (uh, right) and other positive factors, like no wars.

With globalization in full force, whether nominal prices go up or down, whether we have inflation or deflation, the very act of living will become less affordable––and that’s the positive outlook. This too is not good for the single family housing market.

And yet, we engage in silly arguments over when interest rates will rise. Please.

#23 Jim on 06.14.11 at 10:21 pm

Mr. Reality

“folks” ?
You are BPOE.
But you are not me.
And I think prices are about to fall.

#24 BC Bring Cash on 06.14.11 at 10:24 pm

The US Feds latest QE2 went to bail out foreign banks. Especially European Banks at the expense of the domestic American economy. We should be worried as we all know the USA is still our major trading partner. When US really tanks with another financial crisis much worse than 2008 we are all in trouble globally.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-feds-600-billion-stealth-bailout-foreign-banks-continues-expense-domestic-economy-

#25 Killer Chicken or Imploding Boomer? on 06.14.11 at 10:24 pm

Time for a new nickname

Garth – I saw the 77% of net worth in house referred to statscan – do you have a link?

DSMB

#26 landlessinvan on 06.14.11 at 10:27 pm

I’ve been reading this blog for years; sold my condo and moved to Europe for a couple years. Now back in Vancouver and despite EVERYTHING that you say, Garth, and everything I believe about the coming fall in Canadian real estate, I have to say it is totally unnerving to go through the neighborhoods in Vancouver (especially the West Side) and to see houses under renovation, new house construction, and seeming affluence everywhere. Wow.

#27 SMOKING MAN on 06.14.11 at 10:30 pm

I killed a big ass bottle of wine again so I am blabbing. Hope this makes sence.

Ya see Garth our education system does not teach people finance, the power of compound interest.

The smoke screen is to have you to memorize and regurgitate on a timer and love the hollywood stars.

School takes your thinking away, they present a goal and an elusion that he who follows the rules and obeys his master will win.

Nothing could be further than the truth.

Your degree that you went in debt for is just a paper a certificate that tells the master there is a high probability I will not steel your customers. I will obey and be a happy obedient slave to you…..

Ba hahahahah The smoking man sees it a bit different,

I say screw the master, steel the client list and set up shop across the street and crush the master.

But where in an MBA class do they teach you that. Ah no where………….

Ahhhhhh god I’m so smart I have so much to teach the grass hoppers. It’s sick, and when people come on here saying smoking man you’re a fool you can’t spell. Well I laugh my guts out….

These same people are petro for Real Estate.

It is what it is

#28 Shawn Petriw on 06.14.11 at 10:33 pm

Chad needs to get a new girlfriend. She’s expendable. His sanity and financial security is not.

Also, disagreements over money are a big reason for divorce. Better to end it now if she doesn’t come around in a hurry.

#29 Debtfree on 06.14.11 at 10:33 pm

Buzz off. We’re taking them with us. — Garth

LOL the only hog( actual ticker” hog “that is ) I might look at pays a 13 cent divvy on a good 1/4 .
You’ll have to take it with you because I doubt you’ll be able to get your cash back out …… pure emotion . Sound familiar ? Or maybe the vultures will give you a reverse payment on it … Naaaa.

#30 Aaron - Melbourne on 06.14.11 at 10:37 pm

Misrepresentation of auction clearance rates

http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/it-may-be-worse-than-we-thought-20110611-1fy94.html

#31 LJ on 06.14.11 at 10:37 pm

Don’t those reverse mortgages pay about 40 cents on the dollar for your house and they hope to own it outright somewhere down the road? Bad deal. Sell now and realize the full potential of your “forced savings.”

#32 Tom from Mississauga on 06.14.11 at 10:37 pm

Hey Chad, take her a on a vacation this summer, a fully furnished condo for a week in Miami Beach is dirt cheap, ask her where she would like to go in the winter, although I hear Calgary is wonderful that time of year.
Renters, even though subhuman underground dwellers, can still have fun too!
ETFs, is it getting warm in here, I will keep my shorts on however.

#33 nonplused on 06.14.11 at 10:38 pm

Chad,

If she isn’t your wife, you don’t buy her a house. And shame on your dad for not explaining the man rules. First things first.

If there is a reason you never plan on making her your wife, then you definately don’t buy her a house. Relationships that are by definition temporary do not qualify for long term business arrangements.

With girlfriends and mistresses you pay their rent, for dates, and for nice gifts. That’s it. Maybe the odd trip to Mexico.

By the way, house talk can be womaneze that she is expecting a ring.

Cheers, and play safe (and fair).

#34 Ex-Cowtown on 06.14.11 at 10:40 pm

#29 landlessin van

Westside Van ….and seeming affluence everywhere. Wow.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You hit the nail on the head. SEEMING affluence. As GT put it once “the borrowed veneer of wealth”.

Even Aaron Spelling’s widow had to dump the Hollywood mansion, previously valued at $150mm for a mere $75mm. 50% haircut.

At the end of the day, if you borrow too much money, you will get into trouble. The difference is with ultra-low interest rates you have the opportunity to get into ultra-more trouble.

#35 Cato on 06.14.11 at 10:40 pm

Guess most never learned the aesop fabel of the ant & the grasshopper. If the average retirement savings are truly $125K then its game over.

Avoid taking the RE plunge Chad. Cowtown becomes a downright miserable place to live when flow of money dries up. Its infested with specuvestors, when busts occur they are bad.

People need to wake up to the fact society doesn’t owe anyone a thing. Big brother isn’t going to ride to the rescue and make everything better. When those who behave irresponsibly are in the minority the majority can pick up the slack. At this point we have opposite, and its too late for society at large to recover from the stupidity of the majority.

Canadians spend record amount of money on vacations in Mexico. Maybe they should look a little closer next time they are down at their favourite resort. Look for the 80 year old woman washing tourists clothes by hand and think. People around the world work until the day they die if its what they have to do to survive. What makes Canada any different. Wake up grasshoppers, the golden years for many are going to be worst years of their lives.

#36 MO on 06.14.11 at 10:41 pm

Ask her to move to Leslieville.

Check out the Leslieville real estate trends:
http://www.leslievillepost.com/2011/05/22/leslieville-real-estate-trends/

#37 Sound Advice on 06.14.11 at 10:48 pm

Oh Chad, you aren’t even married yet.

Best stock you could invest in is DTB.

#38 Coldlazarus on 06.14.11 at 10:48 pm

Duran Duran???

For we wrinkly boomers past 60 now, it’s likely a wretched plastic CD digital version of the White Album and Rubber Soul…..and speaking about retirement costs, have you priced out the cost of Botox these days??

#39 Carp on 06.14.11 at 10:49 pm

My landlord was here again – seems like he’s here each week – this time fixing some cement stuff I would have to hire someone to do.

He also cut some wood from the city folks left behind cause I asked them for firewood. In exchange, I’m going to take care of the new lawn that needs seeding since replacing the “tube” thingy between the well and the house.

I really feel bad for my landlord so I barter with him for some things so he doesn’t go bankrupt … poor guy.

Meanwhile, my kids have a couple of acres to play on and I have 1/5 acre of food growing in the backyard for the rental price and a cube in Yaletown vancouver.

chad, to be or not to be screwed – not that is the question.

Now I go see the moon and stars and listen to the symphony of the coyotes.

#40 Kim on 06.14.11 at 11:08 pm

#28 I agree with Shawn… women like that are really a dime a dozen… tell him to seek someone with brains and good looks!!!! There is some out there.
And honestly .. Good Damn Luck to you Chad my friend! Good damn luck cause to tell you the truth I would hate to be a man in this day and age … that kinda thing is like finding a needle in a hay stack… Good luck!

#41 Randis on 06.14.11 at 11:13 pm

#18 Joe, you are bang-on. Based on my own experience, the worst is that people actually knows nothing about investing and claim they know everything and dismiss you when you try to explain and throw in rationale AND THEN call you stupid … How beautiful.

Sad part is, they think the banks are genuine and honest and is the only “proper” place to place their money, not knowing the ugly truth of how banks / bankers work … I deal with bank-loving clients like this everyday and you are right, its pretty sad to see how hopeless people are.

#42 Kim on 06.14.11 at 11:13 pm

Youth is wasted on the young.. so true in this case .. so true.

#43 Medic on 06.14.11 at 11:15 pm

#19
Didn’t you just regurgitate those lines from Matt Damon’s character in Rounders?

#44 Lisa on 06.14.11 at 11:18 pm

Start living below your means…
“Look poor, think rich” – Andy Warhol.
If the middle class are to survive, they need to downgrade the lifestyle and become SMART poor people. The gap is widening, more everyday. The deluded ones naturally put themselves on the rich side when they most certainly are poor.

#45 Love this Blog on 06.14.11 at 11:24 pm

#19 Smoking man said
Again Garth you go with Facts, Logic, and Fundamentals, never taking into account the herd.

The pretty gorgeous wife competing with her rivals, other gorgeous wives.

The game!

The shiniest garnet, the most spectacular gleaming hardwood, and the dumb hubby who only has one thing on his mind, little brain thinking for the big head. She with a warm touch and a whisper in the ear can get him to sign just about anything so she can keep playing.”

You nailed that one!!

#46 BPOE on 06.14.11 at 11:35 pm

Chad,
Chicks dig guys who own homes period. They dump the renter dudes pretty quick. Most chicks dump you eventually so they want that house. Making along story short your going to most likely lose the $85000 in the long run anyway. So enjoy your new home or get single and rent if thats what floats your boat. Another idea take your half of the 85k out now and buy with her half. If your buying anywhere else than Vancouver then your going to lose over the short and long term but it is cool to own a home

#47 Malbadon on 06.14.11 at 11:35 pm

No worries, the mortgaged-for-life are saved, we’ll just never ever ever raise interests rates…..
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2011/6/14/Bank-of-Canada-to-delay-rate-hikes-to-2012-TD-Bank.aspx

#48 pjwlk on 06.14.11 at 11:36 pm

I took a drive through west Oakville today and was stunned at just how few houses are for sale. I couldn’t believe it.

My agent friend, who is listing her North GTA house in 1 week tells me that she expects it to sell in 1 week or less based on the supply and activity she’s seen recently. Time will tell.

She also mentioned that things are getting tough out there for agents because there’s not enough supply for the current demand and also told me that “prices won’t be going down”. I kept my mouth shut for a change and left it at that.

It sure seems like a bizarre market these days. I’m still trying to get my head around what’s really going on out there…

#49 Mr. Reality on 06.14.11 at 11:37 pm

#24 BC Bring Cash on 06.14.11 at 10:24 pm

The US Feds latest QE2 went to bail out foreign banks. Especially European Banks at the expense of the domestic American economy. We should be worried as we all know the USA is still our major trading partner. When US really tanks with another financial crisis much worse than 2008 we are all in trouble globally.

Thanks for that post! Why anyone would remain bullish these days is beyond me!

Mr. R.

#50 wes_coast on 06.14.11 at 11:45 pm

Don’t forget to call your cable company to have HGTV removed from your package. You might just stand a chance.

#51 Bottoms_Up on 06.14.11 at 11:46 pm

“quest to nest”.

I love it.

Garth, you are a word wizard.

#52 reality guy on 06.14.11 at 11:47 pm

Reverse Mortgages are dumb

Houses don’t collect interest and your just loading more debt onto yourself, and eat away at your savings.

If you sold the house. (800,000 and collect 3 or 4 % on it using GIC or some completely safe investment vehicle)

you would be collecting approxiately 3200 per month.

Now that can get you a pretty good rental, plus money to spend.

Let say you burn 3000 dollars a month or 36,000 per year. In 10 you would of burnt 360,000 dollars. meaning you would only have about 400,000 left in house equity. So in 20 years your basically done.

Moral of the story, reverse mortages: in 20 years of retirement you will have zero equity and be in the poor house.

If you rented in this case you would still have 800,000 dollars in CASH and can continue on living at 3200 per month.

Now that is something to think about

#53 dubble on 06.14.11 at 11:51 pm

Smoking Man…

I play poker too… Why not play me online? Im getting tired of your loud and proud bullshit.

I’ll post the results for all to see. Game?

#54 Joseph [original] on 06.14.11 at 11:51 pm

It is interesting to note that your citation of collapsing US real estate values is worse than it really looks. I read a piece on this comparison recently, and an analyst stated that in the 1930s when US housing prices declined, the prices of everything else declined as well in a deflationary environment, muting any real loss in real estate values as it became cheaper to live. This time around, the analyst noted, real estate values are falling even while the prices of food and energy is rising. Its alot worse than people think.

#55 Industrial Guy on 06.14.11 at 11:58 pm

Today’s report from the Certified General Accountants Association of Canada proves the Doomers are right!! Unless Canada and the USA experience an unprecedented boom in GDP growth over the next ten years. ……. It’s The End Of The World As We Know It.

“A CGA-Canada survey found 57% of indebted respondents are borrowing cash just to afford day-to-day living expenses like food, housing and transportation. ” Sounds bad? As incredible as this does sound it gets significantly worse ….. “One-third of retired households bearing an average $60,000 debt load and 17% carrying $100,000 or more.” I sure wouldn’t want to be the bank that insured those loans.

The “recovery” is a lie! Any expansion of GDP has been purchased with debt and not backstopped by increased productivity and exports. Where are the jobs? Plants are still closing all over Ontario.

Real estate is irrelevant when you can’t afford to get to work and you’re borrowing money to pay for hotdogs, canned tuna and rice every week.
We are so screwed ……….It’s late in the third period and the Doomers are ahead by five.

http://money.canoe.ca/money/mymoney/canada/archives/2011/06/20110614-112830.html

#56 Onemorething on 06.15.11 at 12:27 am

Key word here is “Girlfriend”! If you’re not on the same page with likely the most important buying decision at the worst possible time, FIRE HER!

The Smart Dog at the end of the day will have pick of the crop!

#57 Duke on 06.15.11 at 12:29 am

“Hideous wrinkly people trapped inside with their Duran Duran CDs.” The best line yet! How do you do it Garth?

I also can’t believe that monster, “Gordan Pape” or as I like to call him “Go And Rape” is going to be ripping out the hearts of boomers through their wallet. 55 for a reverse mortgage? Do I smell a new bubble?

The Reverse Mortgage Bubble!

#58 Aussie Roy on 06.15.11 at 12:45 am

Aussie Update

Tenants: Make $16,140 a Year on Your Rental Property

“Besides, if you know anything about investment properties, you can comfort yourself in the knowledge your rent won’t help the landlord pay off his or her loan…

Because chances are they’ve got an interest-only loan. The rent you’re paying is less than their monthly mortgage repayments.

So, rather than demonise the landlord, thank them. After all, they’re providing you with a house for a lower cost than if you bought the house yourself.

In fact, they’re providing you with shelter below the cost price. It’s the equivalent of the local milk bar buying chocolate bars for $2 wholesale and selling them to you for $1.50 retail.

One day they’ll go bust… until then… make the most of it.

#59 Tim on 06.15.11 at 12:49 am

What are they all going to do, sell their home and rent?

#60 Morry on 06.15.11 at 12:50 am

you have some weird mo-jo going on with your blog. Click on the image and one goes to a comment section, where what ever comment is entered never appears anywhere.
weird…

#61 Aussie Roy on 06.15.11 at 12:50 am

Sorry, submit before.

Aussie Update

Tenants: Make $16,140 a Year on Your Rental Property

“Besides, if you know anything about investment properties, you can comfort yourself in the knowledge your rent won’t help the landlord pay off his or her loan…

Because chances are they’ve got an interest-only loan. The rent you’re paying is less than their monthly mortgage repayments.

So, rather than demonise the landlord, thank them. After all, they’re providing you with a house for a lower cost than if you bought the house yourself.

In fact, they’re providing you with shelter below the cost price. It’s the equivalent of the local milk bar buying chocolate bars for $2 wholesale and selling them to you for $1.50 retail.

One day they’ll go bust… until then… make the most of it.”

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20110615/tenants-make-16140-a-year-on-your-rental-property.html#more-5309

Mortgage Stress by Aussie Zip code.

http://www.news.com.au/money/property/fitch-ratings-mortgage-stress-postcode-shows-queenslanders-suffering-worst/story-e6frfmd0-1226075378594

Its the morning after the debt binge, where is the hair of the dog.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/borrowers-and-banks-in-bingebuying-hangover-20110614-1g1yd.html

#62 $froma$ia-Your CA$H is TRA$H on 06.15.11 at 12:51 am

“Inflation and $1.30 gas don’t help.”-Garth

Now your talking!~

May the Canucks hoist the cup and Lou justify his salary.

$

#63 Utopia on 06.15.11 at 12:56 am

#4 Roy Stacey
———————-

I will bet you think nobody on this site has the linguistic background to translate “toots” into English, right Roy? Well you bet wrong smart guy. Your remark shows no class at all.

#64 wicked as it seems on 06.15.11 at 1:00 am

Coming from the worlds most elegantly wasted 60 year old boomer!

Christ it feels good to have got out at the top with the wad enabling my life to resemble my youth. Freedom and the new awareness were the mantra of the sixties. I intend to exercise that again.

#65 Canuck Abroad on 06.15.11 at 1:18 am

Bill Gable and Imstupid – thanks for your replies yesterday.

For the doomers out there – Fukushima oughta help clear out Vancouver even faster than selling boomers:

“The recent CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report indicates that eight cities in the northwest U.S. (Boise ID, Seattle WA, Portland OR, plus the northern California cities of Santa Cruz, Sacramento, San Francisco, San Jose, and Berkeley) reported the following data on deaths among those younger than one year of age:
4 weeks ending March 19, 2011 – 37 deaths (avg. 9.25 per week)
10 weeks ending May 28, 2011 – 125 deaths (avg.12.50 per week)
This amounts to an increase of 35% (the total for the entire U.S. rose about 2.3%), and is statistically significant. Of further significance is that those dates include the four weeks before and the ten weeks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant disaster…”

So do you trust the Canadian government to give you the unvarnished truth about what is still spewing from Fukushima and where it is being carried? Do you think a spike in baby deaths will be on Global TV news right after the house porn segment?

And here is a potential solution to curbing foreign ownership in Vancouver – hike down payments for foreigners. I think the minimum is already 25% or 33% – but why not hike to 50% or even higher?

http://www.businessinsider.com/hong-kong-home-sales-dropped-58-over-the-weekend-2011-6

#66 Mark on 06.15.11 at 1:27 am

Garth,
It isn’t a pathetic blog. It is simply an attempt to discern reason from chaos, as all the well-schooled attempt to do. It is a good blog, because all views are dissected, and hopefully those with a stake in their position are outed. I appreciate the time and research that goes into these viewpoints, and can separate the wheat from the chaff.
It is not a ‘pathetic’ blog, and you needn’t refer to it as such. It is a helpful appraisal of all the goings on, and as such much appreciated.

#67 Real Estate on 06.15.11 at 1:46 am

SMOKING MAN –

Life only remains for Real Estate while the economy remains sluggish – i.e. 2% growth. Once the economy breaks in one direction or the other (growth or brand new global recession) real estate will be done.

Real Estate is on borrowed time right now. If a brand new global recession begins you won’t even need a rise in interest rates to crush real estate.
It’s a total gamble to be in Real Estate right now. You know the tsunami is coming and you still want to play on the beach until you see the tsunami in your face! LOL If you play that game you won’t survive 10 out of 10 times and it only takes one miss to wipe you out! Good Luck!

#68 spaceman on 06.15.11 at 3:09 am

Renting is good, even today 4 price reductions some as high as $10,000. Now, how much is this with the interest applied, well lets do the math, compount interest at about 5% over 30 years, this will cost you 20,000, that is a lot of rent payments, for me, a year and a half. So ya, dump your down payment on a condo and watch it disappear, and you still have to pay for it for the next… 30… years ….

#69 Imstupid on 06.15.11 at 5:22 am

Hi Garth

Interesting post today. No need to worry, the gov’t will bail out the banks when the boomers die indebted because of reverse mortgages and loc they use to fund retirement. The rest of us will just flip the bill. It will be a final f u by the generation of excess. Thats the only gift our parents will leave for us.

Love your name. — Garth

#70 SMOKING MAN on 06.15.11 at 6:07 am

#53 dubble on 06.14.11 at 11:51 pm
Smoking Man…

I play poker too… Why not play me online? Im getting tired of your loud and proud bullshit.
I’ll post the results for all to see. Game?
……………………………………………..
NO.
I never play on line, can’t read body laugage.

Live face to face game anytime.

#71 Industrial Guy on 06.15.11 at 6:08 am

I had to read this twice …. “Canada urges U.S. to steer clear of debt default”

Yes, thats right. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is telling the Government of the USA how to manage its economy. Our own Bubblemeister has all the answers.

http://money.canoe.ca/money/business/canada/archives/2011/06/20110614-162435.html

#72 Cow Man on 06.15.11 at 6:21 am

Garth:

Thank you for making my day on a daily basis. You are a joy to read. Not Shakespear; but still awe inspiring.

#73 SMOKING MAN on 06.15.11 at 6:22 am

#67 Real Estate on 06.15.11 at 1:46 am

Real wealth is not the printed paper under your mattress, or the digital labor credits you have on a banks server.

Real wealth resides in your brain and ability to respond to environmental variables and situations out of your control and your ability to rapidly respond to those chances and come out on top.

When you have a closed mind or made up mind, you are driving blind, your mind will trick you into thinking and acting a certain way, and your odds off success are cut into two.

Real wealth is inside the soul, You say a tsunami is coming, most of you will run, I will wax my surf board.

#74 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.15.11 at 6:24 am

Good thing this guy is in Calgary and not Vancouver!

$85,000 would be 5% down payment on one of these $1.7M starter homes in Van City:

This $1.68M 2-bdrm/2-bath place that looks condemned.
This $1.69M tear-down house that actually says in the listing “Please drive by only, No showing.”
This $1.7M 2-bdrm / 1-bath (from Larry at yattermatters!)

#75 T.O. Bubble Boy on 06.15.11 at 6:29 am

I think I found the real identity of BPOE — Frank Corbin, CEO, Remic Wealth Institute:

http://www.buyholdprofit.com/events

NO MONEY DOWN
NO INCOME
NO CREDIT
MAKE $100,000 A YEAR PART-TIME

(by the way, this link was from a banner ad on Yahoo News – which is definitely a sign of the times)

#76 bigrider on 06.15.11 at 6:45 am

Excellent post today Garth.

Too bad only 300 or so of the regular visitors to this site will ever see it.

You have to get your views on the housing market published more regularly in the mainstream media.

#77 CaptLou on 06.15.11 at 6:55 am

Nice Picture today. Utube “I’m in the dog house”for the video this picture came from. Good instructional/tutorial for men.

#78 detalumis on 06.15.11 at 6:56 am

Whats pathetic in this blog is the stupid stereotypes of young women, they all seem to be hotties with no financial sense and incapable of earning any income on their own; it’s like 1950 but the girls all put out first. My experience is that there are plenty of educated young women that make more than the men do and they seem to have a hard time finding any life partner since the pickings are so slim.

In my area in south oakville, a teacher/police/nurse couple can pick up a bungalow for 3 times family income not 18 or 20. If they want to wait for the boomers to die than go ahead and wait say 30 more years until they are 55 or 60, in this neighbourhood the boomer parents are still living in their homes at 85 plus. I wouldn’t move out even if I had no other income but GIS/OAS. I would just buddy up with a couple of other destitute old-broads.

#79 maxx on 06.15.11 at 7:14 am

#103 Mikey the Realtor on 06.14.11 at 8:41 am

“Carney will be leaving rates low for years, a RE retrace is all dependant on this, people today don’t care about the cost they care about their monthly payment.”

He may certainly attempt this, however the cost of everything else will crush homeowners who have taken on excessive debt….and their numbers are far from insignificant. Carney would need to lower rates into negative territory (lmaorofl)…..and forget about shrugging off the influence of the economic behemoths around the globe that catch a cold- or worse.

#80 biil c on 06.15.11 at 7:27 am

Flarehty and Carney worried about debt and mortgages?
Well its too late. They made their bed so they better sleep in it. U.S may be in another recession within months and Flarehty and Carney never saw this coming.
Garth even you never saw this coming. This could potentially be the Perfect Storm. U.S. Will not suffer as much as Canada. It was inevitable and now Reality is here. This will be long and ugly.

#81 Dr. K. Hunt on 06.15.11 at 7:32 am

TD says groth rate will stall in 2011 and worse in 2012 and 2013. I dont think so MR. Bank. Canada is headed for ZERO growth. This is not good and you will see the employment numbers change in the months ahead.
A piece of advice from Investors and Economists.
Go to Church and PRAY. Its Canada’s time to feel what the rest of the world has.

#82 Herb on 06.15.11 at 7:36 am

Out of the mouths of babes …

“Nothing could be further than the truth.” (Smoking Man, in his cups at #27)

That’s why it’s so hard to arrive at the truth.

#83 Kevin on 06.15.11 at 7:36 am

The moral of this story is, Boomers would have been better off renting, and investing the difference in the types of assets that Garth consistently recommends.

The problem is – and we all know this is true – that very, very few of them would have actually SAVED the difference. They would have blown it on immediate consumption, and be in the exact same situation they are now (old, with no savings), but with a rental instead of a house with at least SOME equity.

I worry that this aspect of human nature is unchanged in Gen X and Gen Y, and any savings Chad and his better half harvest from renting instead of buying will end up in Best Buy and Travelocity, instead of TD Waterhouse.

#84 Cash is King on 06.15.11 at 7:49 am

“This is where we find that God has a sense of humour, since she created the reverse mortgage.”

SHE created the reverse mortgage?!?!?!?

Now this blog is definitely going to hell.

#85 Macrath on 06.15.11 at 7:51 am

“a lousy pile of bricks” More like a lousy pile of cheap board, staples, and cardboard trim that obviously won`t last the 5/35. I`ve heard reports from relatives that newer homes in Burlington are already falling apart. Folks will need a reverse mortgage to keep up with the rampant inflation at Home Depot. Anyone with actual bricks, lumber and copper might survive the maintenance costs.

#86 Mythbuster on 06.15.11 at 7:56 am

Chad, tell her this: “Sweetie, if we use our 85 grand as down payment on a house worth living in, we’ll have a mortgage of 500 grand. When prices decline 15%, which is not much, we’ll lose our 85 grand and still owe at least 450 grand. We’ll have to declare bankruptcy? Is that what you want?”

#87 Love this Blog on 06.15.11 at 7:59 am

Garth,
I gotta thank you again for this blog. Your perspective is very much appreciated. Every time I get the itch, I come here for the cure.

#88 Jsan on 06.15.11 at 8:10 am

“New reports forecasting a cooling housing market and slower consumer spending tied to record household debt suggest the Conservative government can’t count on growth to give them an easy ride to a balanced budget.”

You mean the Conservatives magic growth formula of inflating the economy by creating a housing Bubble can’t last forever after all? Kind of reminds me of the US. The Conservatives have followed their playbook to a “T”. After the sluggish economy of post tech bubble crash and 9/11, the US got the brilliant idea to drop interest rates to next to nothing and to give out mortgages for next to nothing. Exactly what Canada has done. All in the attempt to pump a weak economy artificially higher. The US officials had to know it would end badly just as Harper and Flaherty have to know it will eventually end badly here in Canada, all bubbles do and we are clearly in a bubble.

You almost get the impression that these housing bubbles around the world have been planned? Does Mark Carney know about this? Oh wait a minute. He’s one of Canada’s top guys at the Bilderberg Conference. You know, that conference that is held every year where the world’s rich, powerful and elite gather for secret clandestine meetings. Where no reporters are allowed, where absolutely no media coverage is allowed and where nobody who attends the meetings ever talks about the meetings or even acknowledges that the organization exists. Hmmm, now why should anyone be suspicious of an event like that?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tory-budget-plans-set-askew-by-slow-growth-projections/article2061202/

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/full-list-2011-bilderberg-conference-attendees

#89 bigrider on 06.15.11 at 8:15 am

By the way, Harleys are crap boxes, especially any of them prior to 2008.

The big V-twins from Yamaha and Suzuki are better bikes for less money.

#90 Kevin on 06.15.11 at 8:19 am

Flaherty, Carney fear household debt impact, but taking action also risky
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5j_UCZ6jUqI6wq48rMAK659qMpsZA?docId=7145667

“Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tabled a budget implementation bill Tuesday he says will formalize his powers to intervene in Canada’s hot housing market to restrain borrowing.

And on Wednesday, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is expected to warn Canadians against taking on too heavy a debt burden that they won’t be able to afford once interest rates start rising.”

Mortgage credit growth can not outpace GDP and wage growth forever. The court is being set up for more mortgage tightening.

#91 Herb on 06.15.11 at 8:31 am

The “skinny” on what to expect from the new, gentler majority government formed by Harper’s CPC:

… to put it in the prime minister’s terms, they may spend all their time breaking instruments over their opponent’s heads, but they really do believe they’re making beautiful music.

The uncompressed version is at http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Harper+still+talks+conservative+game/4947627/story.html#ixzz1PLkqq9ym

#92 househornyhousewife on 06.15.11 at 8:32 am

I have to agree with Elmer on this one. The real issue is not whether or not you should purchase a home that you really want. It is whether or not you can afford it. If you don’t have all or most of your net worth tied up in an illiquid asset such as a house and if you buy that house in order to have a place to live in that you can mold to suit your lifestyle, then why not ? I don’t think people are fools in wanting to own their own homes. I do, however, think that they are fools in not thinking a transaction, such as buying a house, all the way through before making such an important decision. First, you must be sure that you really want that house and that you are not planning to move tomorrow (houses are difficult to turnover, obviously). And second, you must be absolutely sure that you can TRULY afford it .. not simply be able to come up with that downpayment and manage the monthly mortgage payments but really afford it. This means taking on mortgage payments comfortably, without sacrificing your lifestyle, and having enough in your budget for “unforseeables” .. such as a new roof, furnace, plumbing issues or whatever may come up (’cause believe me, it will). If you are truly ready to take the plunge then go for it. If you are not ready, then you really have no choice but to save your pennies and wait. That’s life. Personally, I don’t have as much of a problem going for a house that I can afford and that will improve my quality of life. Having children is much more expensive, in my opinion, and a far riskier investment than a home (a reason I decided not to have any) but you don’t see financial gurus telling people to stop having children. People are still having them and most (although not all, unfortunately) don’t regret it. Most are proud and happy to have made this decision, even if it cost them. This is wonderful and life is not only about making money. It’s all a question of priorities and knowing what you are getting into. Our culture today is one of instant gratification. I want it now no matter what it costs. This is the real reason we have so much real estate debt as well as credit card debt (let’s not forget about that) … it’s called GREED and it has existed since the dawn of time. Anyway, that’s my two cents.

#93 Bottoms_Up on 06.15.11 at 8:47 am

#65 Canuck Abroad on 06.15.11 at 1:18 am
———————————————
The problem with those numbers is that:

1) they’re based on a small number of deaths

and,

2) correlation does not causation make

It’s like saying there was a higher rate of death going forward after Garth’s blog posting on March 20th.

The increase in deaths could be due to a multitude of factors, that being seasonal, or perhaps increased illness in society due to the weird weather etc. or could perhaps even be within the realm of normal and that for some reason(s) the death rate prior to March 20th was low.

#94 Kaganovich on 06.15.11 at 8:50 am

Important interview with Ha-joon Chang:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/06/economics-upside-down.html

Listen, learn and post your opinions on the piece. I am sure the Mont Pelerin Society will be releasing the hounds shortly after watching it!

#95 Hoser on 06.15.11 at 8:55 am

“Best stock you could invest in is DTB.”
Best line of the day. And the best advice.

I see an ‘oopsie dear, I’m pregnant’ moment in Chad’s future.

#96 Chad +25 on 06.15.11 at 9:09 am

Chad my man, I was in the same boat you were 25 years ago. The live-in girlfriend was pushing me to buy a house. I had an entry level job and very little cash. My parents (for some unknown reason) volunteered to put up a small amount for a down payment.

Then came the comment from the LIG ” If we split up can I keep the house?”

To which I replied “No, but I’m going to work tomorrow, and when I get home I want all of your crap out of the apartment.”

Luckiest day of my life!

#97 Mikey the Realtor on 06.15.11 at 9:42 am

#79 maxx on

Nobody will get crushed (not for a while anyway), governments have embedded a mantra called ‘privatize profits and socialize losses’. This is the new trend regardless of what people want to believe, I’m not agreeing with it as I think that this type of thinking just puts off the inevitable for a little longer. Bank bailouts, TBTF thinking and giving people perks to buy houses, cars and whatever else they come up with is going to blow up in ALL our faces, even if you didn’t take part.

#98 Ryder on 06.15.11 at 9:43 am

Garth…a question!!!

I know that all the signs are depicting a downtrend for the real estate…..what do you say what can happen to at least sustain a reasonable real estate growth in Canada and Alberta to be specific.

Thanks.

#99 Donkey Punch on 06.15.11 at 9:48 am

why doesn’t he do what i did. buy a place and rent it out. i did that and i rent in toronto. the condo i live in is valued at 400k. condo fees are a ridiculous 825/mo. can you believe that? not sure what taxes are or utilities. gf and i pay a flat 1600/mo all in. if we bought the place i figure our costs would double. forget that. cant eat the house when i want to retire.i put my year end bonus in rrsp and gf her bonus in rrsp. we are able to save 2k a month (alot thanks to renting) and we have a joint non-registered account. my plan is to build it up so in 20 years we have a decent portfolio of dividend stocks. the rrsps are all fixed income products. dont like to contribute to rrsp as its partly the government. im 41 she is 32.

ps:first!

#100 JSS on 06.15.11 at 9:49 am

Get rid of her.

#101 BrianT on 06.15.11 at 9:50 am

93Kag-IMO economists are not stupid. What they are (generally) is career conscious and willing to say anything to advance their personal prospects. Jeff Rubin actually admitted that he was asked to leave CIBC because his views had strayed too far from what they were selling. When you hear the average economist speak remember that he is selling whatever story his boss wants sold.

#102 BrianT on 06.15.11 at 9:57 am

91house-You summed it up-however I am sure you are aware that children bring a lot more happiness to women than they do to men (IMHO). A relatively high percentage of men literally walk away from their children-this is almost unheard of for women who value their children far higher. Your original thinking is admirable-you are the first poster that has drawn the clear parallel between children and houses. The thing is, for most guys their ideal situation is happiness and freedom combined-for most women it is happiness and lack of freedom. This impacts children, housing and even political institutions IMO.

#103 Industrial Guy on 06.15.11 at 10:11 am

The Bubblemeister speaks ……… “Flaherty warned consumers not to get too deeply into debt when buying a house”.

“We need to remind Canadians that historic low interest rates will not be there forever, that interest rates really only have one way to go and that’s up”.

Such sage words from our leading nominee for Great Fool mascot.

OK, so he and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney set the low interest trap … Millions of Canadians walked into the trap …. now the genius is warning everyone LOOK OUT FOR THE TRAP!!!

What kind of cynical Government would do this to its own citizens?

#104 debtified on 06.15.11 at 10:18 am

May home sales flat, but prices rise 8.6%

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/06/15/crea-housing-may.html

#105 Steven Rowlandson on 06.15.11 at 10:24 am

Garth that over sized dog house looks like all the house young people can afford.

#106 Franco on 06.15.11 at 10:24 am

It is different here.

With consumer debt hitting almost 140%.

Garth you are right in your analysis. Just a little early for the household debt paydown ball.

This article was in the Globe.

Zombie consumers leading U.S. into lost decade
Stephen Roach
08:13 EST Wednesday, Jun 15, 2011

The global economy is being hobbled by a new generation of zombies – the economic walking dead. The American consumer is in the early stages of an unprecedented retrenchment. In the 13 quarters since the beginning of 2008, inflation-adjusted annualized growth in consumption has averaged just 0.5 per cent. Never before in the post-Second World War era have U.S. consumers been this weak for this long.

The zombie syndrome has an important antecedent. It was, in fact, a key symptom of the Japan disease, which led to the first of two lost decades for that country. Encouraged by the government, Japanese banks kept extending credit lines for a broad cross-section of insolvent companies – postponing restructuring and inevitable failure.

Japanese productivity growth weakened dramatically as a result of the ensuing “zombie congestion”. The lifeline of policy-driven bank lending allowed bankrupt companies to hang on to excess workers and redundant capacity. But that sapped post-bubble Japan of sorely needed vitality.

It’s comparable in post-bubble America. After a record buying binge that lasted a dozen years, U.S. consumers were stretched as never before. Consumption excesses were built on the precarious foundation of two bubbles – property and credit – which have now burst.

It will take a long time for American consumers to recover from the ravages of this bubble-induced spending binge. Deleveraging, the paying down of excess debt, has barely begun. Yes, household sector debt came down to 115 per cent of disposable personal income in early 2011. While that is 15 percentage points below the peak ratio of 130 per cent hit in 2007, it remains well above the 75 per cent average of the 1970 to 2000 period.

A similar pattern is evident on the saving side. The personal saving rate stood at just 4.9 per cent of disposable income in March and April 2011. While that’s up from the rock-bottom 1.2 per cent in mid-2005, it is far short of the nearly 8 per cent norm that prevailed in the last 30 years of the 20th century.

Like Japan’s banks, Washington policymakers are doing everything they can to forestall rational economic adjustments. The Federal Reserve has conducted two rounds of quantitative easing in an effort to get consumers to start spending the wealth effects of a policy-induced rebound in equities. The Congress and the White House have embraced home-foreclosure containment programs and other forms of debt forgiveness.

The aim is to get zombie consumers to ignore their festering problems and start spending again – irrespective of the wrenching balance sheet damage they suffered in the Great Recession. The subtext is Washington condones a revival of reckless behaviour.

Unsurprisingly, U.S. consumers are smarter than U.S. policymakers. With fiscal and monetary policies on unsustainable paths, households know that these life support efforts are temporary, at best. That means they need to take matters in their own hands. Sub-par labour income generation and historically high unemployment and under-employment for 24 million Americans only underscore the need for belt-tightening.

Spending retrenchment, deleveraging, and saving are the only sustainable options for America’s zombie consumers. That’s especially the case for 77 million ageing baby boomers – the first of whom are now hitting retirement age.

Like Japan’s zombies, there is no quick end in sight to the chronic weakness of American consumers. I suspect it will take a minimum of another 3 to 5 years before debt loads and saving rates have been restored to more sustainable levels. With consumption still about 70 per cent of gross domestic product, that points to sharply reduced growth in the U.S. economy – unless America is quick to uncover a new and vibrant source of growth. Policy paralysis in Washington is hardly encouraging in that regard.

There are important implications for the global economy. A protracted shortfall of the world’s biggest consumer, as well as weakness in Japan and debt-ravaged Europe, spells lasting pressure on external demand for export-led economies. Barring a quick rebalancing towards internal demand, so-called growth miracles in the developing world could be in for a rude awakening.

Sadly, America’s zombie consumers could be more problematic for the U.S. than Japan’s zombie corporates were for the Japanese economy. At 70 per cent of GDP, US personal consumption is 3.5 times the peak share of Japan’s bubble-distorted business capital spending sector in the early 1990s. A failure to learn the lessons of Japan – especially that of post-bubble zombie congestion – leaves the US and the global economy in a very tough place for years to come. Growth hungry financial markets could be very disappointed.

Stephen Roach is a member of the faculty at Yale University, non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, and author of The Next Asia

#107 jas on 06.15.11 at 10:39 am

just under 80% of the net worth of people over the age of 60 is in one single asset – their houses

——————————————————-
that, sir, is indeed shocking.

Garth, where did you get these numbers from?

#108 maxx on 06.15.11 at 10:45 am

#161 thecomingdepression on 06.14.11 at 2:32 pm

” “recession doesn’t mean depression”..Again.. 44 million on food stamps, real estate dropped to DEPRESSION LEVELS, unemployment over 22%, US facing default, the list is endless! THIS IS A DEPRESSION..PREPARE”

…in 2008, the “R” word was avoided in MSM like the plague…..now it’s the “D” word.

#109 Mister Obvious on 06.15.11 at 10:57 am

#26 landlessinvan

I concur. Development is absolutely on fire in our fair city. But that still doesn’t alter the fact that real estate is a poor investment in Vancouver. On the contrary, it reinforces that fact. Nortel was on fire too for a while. Now its just ash.

#110 PTDBD on 06.15.11 at 11:06 am

Canmore condos down $100k from peak – Calgary CBC Radio this AM

#111 Gordon Hughes on 06.15.11 at 11:14 am

Garth, the one thing that jumps out is the line about how many people threw all they have at a house and the regret it.
Many people bought like they were playing poker, some won, some lost.
Solid financial planning can not be replaced by hot buys!

#112 Jay on 06.15.11 at 11:23 am

That doghouse would cost 1 million in Vancouver.

#113 bigrider on 06.15.11 at 11:25 am

#96- Chad +25. I loved your post.

A line From Kanye West’s song Goldigger with Jamie Foxx.

” A pre-nup is somethin that you need to have, cause when she leave your ass ,she gonna leave with half”

Good advice I think !

#114 MikeT on 06.15.11 at 11:37 am

what is DTB?
dump the beeach?

#115 fancy_pants on 06.15.11 at 11:42 am

ignore the storm clouds brewing.. it’s all sunshine and roses folks – red hot like.
http://www.cbc.ca/fp/story/2011/06/15/4950262.html

#116 new_era on 06.15.11 at 11:56 am

DEBT the 2000lb Gorilla

That is sitting on Canadian’s Faces.

Carney would make the worst father ever. How many warning shots is he going to fire before taking action.

The Chinese community and the Real estate pumpers all feel that Carney will never raise the rates because it will send the (real estate market ) crashing.

Sometimes real action has to be fired to make people take you seriously.

Anyways, yesterday on the Lang and O’leary show, Oleary said the main cause of this problem is most people hasn’t been educated in DEBT and financing. Which is the main problem why this thing is spiraling out of control. The accountants said that if there is a tightening (on this already weak ecomony) , if its not done right could send it spiraling into a real estate crash like in other parts of the world.

Its beginning to look alot like a US style of crash now. I feel its going to be worst

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5j_UCZ6jUqI6wq48rMAK659qMpsZA?docId=7145667

#117 Industrial Guy on 06.15.11 at 11:59 am

Here is the complete Certified General Accountants Association of Canada report.

“Canadian Families Face Ongoing Balance-sheet Battle as Household Debt Reaches Historic High ”

If you don’t have a sleep disorder now …. you will after reading this ……

http://www.cga-canada.org/en-ca/ResearchReports/ca_rep_2011-06_debt-consumption.pdf

The often quoted: “This will not end well” … is an optimistic statement compared to the coming reality.

#118 Utopia on 06.15.11 at 12:03 pm

“We need to remind Canadians that historic low interest rates will not be there forever, that interest rates really only have one way to go and that’s up,” ~~ Jim Flaherty
—————————————————————

Great Line. Hey, wait a second. That one is straight out of the repertoire of the word-master himself, our Host on this enlightened blog, and I recall clearly the first time I read it.

Catchy isn’t it? It is a Turnerism if ever there was one. Good to hear Jim repeating it though, we need that message to get out and to be planted in the minds of the public at large in very clear terms.

The warning that it conveys in its directness and simplicity makes the debt choices clear. We cannot continue with the burn rate of other peoples money in its present form in this low rate environment without impacting negatively on future consumption as rates rise. We can easily see how economic performance will decline in relative terms in the future as a result of todays purchasing decisions.

We know we are up to our necks in debt already too.

Every dollar of debt acquired today must be repaid in the future and as the burden increases that can only weigh on the economy, on retail, on the service sector as debt repayment consumes a larger and larger share of our disposable incomes. This must be one of our biggest worries right now.

Let’s hope it is not already too late to cool off a little of the excessive exuberance in some of our most overheated real estate markets.

#119 new_era on 06.15.11 at 12:07 pm

#88
You almost get the impression that these housing bubbles around the world have been planned? Does Mark Carney know about this? Oh wait a minute. He’s one of Canada’s top guys at the Bilderberg Conference. You know, that conference that is held every year where the world’s rich, powerful and elite gather for secret clandestine meetings. Where no reporters are allowed, where absolutely no media coverage is allowed and where nobody who attends the meetings ever talks about the meetings or even acknowledges that the organization exists. Hmmm, now why should anyone be suspicious of an event like that?

=======================

Of course its been planned, its going to be the biggest transfer of wealth party ever. Can’t wait to see the NWO
the obama plan. “Bankers RULES!!!!”

#120 Vancouver_Bear on 06.15.11 at 12:09 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/household-debt-hits-record-15-trillion/article2059905/

WE ARE DEBT CHAMPIONS MY FRIENDS!!!!!!
WE WILL ALL SINK IN DEBT IN THE END…….

#121 garrulous squirrel on 06.15.11 at 12:27 pm

The folks selling the home equity have it right…..they have discounted the ‘value’ of real estate by 50%. COMPOUND INTREST WILL STEAL THE RUG FROM UNDER THE BOOMER SUCKERS WHO FAIL TO GET THE MATH.

Lets face it the boomers are screwed. Their parents have been raped by Flaherty’s ZIRP and tax scam and will be coming back as sandwiches when their lifetime of savings is wiped out decades early instead of affording retirement care homes. Instead of being able to live on yearly reciepts from interest earned the seniors now have to crystallize savings years early. Instead of having an extra five grand a year to subsidize themselves they are cannibilizing $50,000 p/a and going broke because they have no ROI to exist on.

This makes for a big problem for successive generations….you know the story…shit runs down hill. The boomers are first in line. They used to wait for Ma and Pa to die and then load up on his and hers Harleys on the proceeds of the estate. Now these same boomers are left with no inheritance dreams and can’t pay for their kids post secondary education…ergo the massive bubblew in student debt…….Its a tornado of ca ca brewing on the horizon.

Now consider the newest stats……..that 10% of Canadians are officially poor

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/almost-one-in-10-canadians-is-poor-statscan/article2061595/

This adds into the unemployment stats that are realistically 15%++ percent…( higher for youth and newcomers). Even when you unveil the truth of the new wave of ‘self employment’………taking 20% of the population out of the money gamne adds up to a stinky future prospect eh?

#122 BigAl (Original) on 06.15.11 at 12:32 pm

#27 SMOKING MAN on 06.14.11 at 10:30 pm

The smoke screen is to have you to memorize and regurgitate on a timer and love the hollywood stars.

School takes your thinking away, they present a goal and an elusion that he who follows the rules and obeys his master will win.

Nothing could be further than the truth.

Your degree that you went in debt for is just a paper a certificate that tells the master there is a high probability I will not steel your customers. I will obey and be a happy obedient slave to you…..

Ba hahahahah The smoking man sees it a bit different,

I say screw the master, steel the client list and set up shop across the street and crush the master.

But where in an MBA class do they teach you that. Ah no where………….

====================================

You know, Smoking Man is absolutely right.

Everyone I know who plays life in this manner succeeds financially.

Two of my wife’s brothers and one cousin all stole the client lists and sources for places they worked, and after about a year stole the businesses, and now make more than any degree’d professionals and semi professionals. All without even finishing high school.

Another cousin explained how he doesn’t do any work at all in the sub-contracting world (I won’t say which business exactly). Basically gets the contracts, and subs everything out. Mark-up is 50-100%. Again, not even high school.

I learn every day something university did not teach me about money. It gave me a (false?) confidence for understanding almost every phenomenon, or being able to learn about it. But nobody should be told that university is for anything more than self-fulfillment in a very personal way, and definitely, absolutely not in any way going to make you glamorous or part of the idle rich. Your degree is made – is designed – for you to be a salary/wage slave to figure things out for owners (whether you’re a manager, engineer, HR person, analyst, clerk, …..whatever doesn’t matter). You’re there for them, you’re being prepared to make them more and more money. Sure you might have the most comfy cage of those around and below you (nicer car, house), but really not significantly better.

#123 MikeT on 06.15.11 at 12:50 pm

It’s all cool people, the government will have enough money to pay the banks back the loans insured by CMHC.
I just calculated that if you are in a 35% tax bracket and buy, say, a laptop for 1000$ and pay HST of 13%, then really it cost you 1,738$ in pre-tax money, because 65% of the pre-tax 1,738$ is = 1,130$ after-tax.
So, basically you pay an additional 73.8% in taxes on that damn laptop.
You see my point?

We’re being sucked dry courtesy of CRA.

#124 Mister Obvious on 06.15.11 at 12:51 pm

#66 Mark

“It is not a ‘pathetic’ blog, and you needn’t refer to it as such.”

This blog is written by a well-known contrarian. In that spirit I beg to differ. ‘Pathetic’ is derived from ‘pathos’ defined as:

“That quality or property of anything which touches the feelings or excites emotions and passions”

No subject excites more passion or is more rife with emotion than residential real estate. This comments section is clear evidence of that.

However, I think Garth describes not the blog itself as ‘pathetic’, but the general public disregard (and often contempt) for the sincere message it tries so futilely to convey.

#125 Utopia on 06.15.11 at 1:12 pm

#103 Industrial Guy wrote…..

“OK, so he and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney set the low interest trap … Millions of Canadians walked into the trap …. now the genius is warning everyone LOOK OUT FOR THE TRAP!!!”
——————————————————————–

Again. More of the mythology and blame that is a hallmark of those who cannot accept any personal responsibility for their own indebtedness, don’t understand interest rate policy and who seem to always forget history.

There is a word for your kind of comments Industrial Guy. Claptrap.

Did you forget that the entire globe went into a credit death-spiral not so long ago? That every Western nation and many in the East (including China) took relatively drastic steps to stimulate their economies?

That low interest rate policies were embraced by almost all nations following meetings of Ministers, economists and Leaders at the highest levels?

Perhaps you failed to notice that of all Western democracies, Canada now stands head and shoulders above the rest in most performance categories. We did not lose a single bank. Our employment levels have returned to pre-recession numbers, exports are rising and steps are now being taken to reduce the deficit.

It cost us dearly to keep the economy buoyant. We know that. I will not argue that the pendulum has swung too far though and that our debt load is turning into a systemic risk. But sometimes you have to pay a price when all others around you are in the midst of crisis.

It is now a very fine balancing act for policy makers to correct some of the economic imbalances. They cannot act too quickly as that could lead to a very poor outcome and bring on unintended consequences nor can they ignore our problems and simply continue on the current course. That is a lot easier said than done but communicating and telegraphing the problem directly to the country is an important step. We cannot underestimate the value of dialogue at this time.

Would you prefer instead to be amongst the nations of the PIIGS maybe for some real perspective on the level of austerity and debt rationalization they are now experiencing? Lets keep some perspective here, OK.

In other words, before you start accusing the government of irresponsibility, take a look across the Atlantic or pore through some of the news coming out of the US for an eye-opening refresher on how others have been unable to manage domestic finances.

I happen to think our own government has done a tremendous job considering the odds we were up against and I believe our lawmakers have been prudent especially when viewed in light of the profligacy of almost all of our trading partners.

Let’s not forget that the Credit Crisis was not one of our own making. We were in fact casualties because of the design inherent under a globalized economy and our countries interconnectedness with other nations.

There is just no adequate way to immunize against risks outside our borders and outside our control except by domestic policy choices designed to insulate us and promote our economy from within. Interest rates meanwhile cannot simply be pumped up here at home against current low US rates without inflicting heavy damage on our country and its trade.

We are constrained therefore in our policy actions and limited as the larger economies (like the US) define the price of credit for most other countries at this time.

Half the world meanwhile seems to be in one crisis or another. We are still standing tall here at home and while we do have a reckoning of our own coming as real estate inevitably corrects lets count some of our blessings too.

And cut the blame game. The program has worked until now.

#126 Tom from Mississauga on 06.15.11 at 1:14 pm

Are we getting margin calls here? There was no trading rally this week…

#127 bridgepigeon on 06.15.11 at 1:18 pm

The couple thousand rebels in Libya, some of the same Al Qaeda that have fought Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan, are who the Canadian government will be officially dealing with as the legitimate government now. Brilliant move. Only our Green Party was opposed…
Harper, against international pressure, also has determined to keep our asbestos mines in Quebec going. Millions will die from this, especially in the third world, for the sake of a few jobs here. I have personally witnessed the effects of this toxin in the lungs, a nasty way to end one’s life.
Sorry to say, I’m not a proud Canadian today…

#128 Dr. K. Hunt on 06.15.11 at 1:20 pm

Read below from Globe and Mail. Especially the part in brackets. Why would the globe and mail put those words in brackets. ” (any day now)”3
something very bad is happening and someone is not telling the truth.

The press release from the central bank saying Mr. Carney would address a sold-out Board of Trade meeting on Wednesday elicited squeals of glee from many market watchers, especially those who spend a lot of time warning others that Vancouver’s housing market is bound to crash in a spectacular manner (any day now).

#129 Billy C on 06.15.11 at 1:41 pm

When Peter Yastrow speaks Wall Street Listens.
here is his quote which is frightening.

“Interest rates are amazingly low and that, thanks to Ben Bernanke, is driving everything,” Yastrow said. “We’re on the verge of a great, great depression. The [Federal Reserve] knows it.”

#130 jess on 06.15.11 at 2:05 pm

The depository trust
CEO Donald F. Donahue speaks to the industry

otc market
2010 -1.7 quadtrillion of usa securities transactions
98% credit derivatives pass through
2006 2.3 million contracts notional value of 29 trillion
http://www.dtcc.com/
==========================
This is the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) which was enacted into U.S. law in March 2010 (with effective date of January 1, 2013.)

In effect, FATCA requires automatic exchange of information about U.S. persons with foreign financial accounts. It achieves this by subjecting each foreign financial institution (and other foreign entities) which invest their own funds or their clients’ funds in the U.S. to a 30 percent U.S. withholding tax on U.S.-sourced income – unless the foreign institution agrees to tell the U.S. Government information about foreign financial accounts of U.S. Persons”

Tax Justice Network: FATCA: new automatic info exchange tool18 May 2010 … .They are clients of The Depository Trust, the custodian of all US registered securities. . . Over $30 trillion dollars worth. …
taxjustice.blogspot.com/…/fatca-new-automatic-info-exchange-tool.html – Cached – Similar

#131 David B on 06.15.11 at 2:07 pm

Well all the cards are now on the table in the slippery slops of Greece as headline news agency blame stock market falls on Greece’s debt problems. Yesterday it was stated on CNN that America is deeper in debt than Greece …. hello, how can this be? I for one can not imagine $12.9 Trillion let alone $22.4 Trillion in Nation debt by 2015 should then continue at the current rate.

=====================

So is it possible they will just declare bankruptcy and start all over again? Tea party guys and gals say why not? Early August 2011 the rubber hits the road … again!

#132 BrianT on 06.15.11 at 2:09 pm

125Utopia-You make some good points but the reality is that the USA fiscal situation appeared to be very different as long as the RE bubble stayed inflated. States like California were coasting along circa 2006. Our RE market has basically held together-if it breaks wide open the whole edifice will be exposed IMO.

#133 Aussie Roy on 06.15.11 at 2:09 pm

Aussie Update

NSW households battling to pay mortgages on time

Mortgage repayments are deteriorating rapidly with as many as one in 50 NSW mortgage holders behind on payments.

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/nsw-households-battling-to-pay-mortgages-on-time-20110615-1g2kn.html

Consumer mood hits two-year low

The poor sentiment reading is the latest indicator that households are looking to rein in their spending. Last year’s interest rate rises squeezed many budgets while falling house prices has made many feel less wealthy

http://www.theage.com.au/business/consumer-mood-hits-twoyear-low-20110615-1g2ng.html#ixzz1PN85VC4L

Top end property hit hard

Both the premium and most affordable ends of the property market in Australia are expected to underperform over the next year, after median house values slipped in the March quarter.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/top-end-of-property-market-hit-hardest-20110615-1g35w.html#ixzz1PN8JmHMZ

Easily offended – dont read this

http://tasmanianrealestatetrouble.blogspot.com/2011/06/ramblings.html

#134 garrulous squirrel on 06.15.11 at 2:09 pm

#123 MikeT.isn’t it amazing how so few people get your point? You’re right on the money….The Fraser Institute published the fact that we have now exceeded the 80% general taxation threshold on direct and indirect taxes two years ago…….the media didn’t want to run the story…….too complicated for the masses….maybe disconcerting? Maybe the realization would create a general panic.

#135 Trailer Park Boys on 06.15.11 at 2:09 pm

I don’t know why you all fill cyber spayz with this BS..

I have a PhD from IVY league trade school.

My theesusz was that most of economics is BS

” Eckonomix fer Dummieez “:

—Buy a Harley..get a trailer.
—-Bootleg power, get into indoor farming.

Deal in cash only…pay ZERO taxes…starves the Gov’t =less cops =less problem.

Its all about LOW overhead and high margins….that’s what Jack Layton sez…

WTF do the rest of you waste cybear spaysz over.???..

Next time I am charging a cover charge to read my adviiize.

#136 jess on 06.15.11 at 2:12 pm

127 bridgepigeon

if ya put a waiver ,call it a LLP,or use mouse print that is enough to protect the consumer /workers

or if they admit to danger what happens to the whole town nearby?

Why is it so hard to KILL bad ideas?

#137 disciple on 06.15.11 at 2:13 pm

#101 BrianT….
“When you hear the average economist speak remember that he is selling whatever story his boss wants sold.”

Right on.

Now tell me, why is it that people DO NOT apply this same logic to magazine editors, newscasters, elected officials, university professors, scientists, school teachers, clergymen, Hollywood, and AM radio hosts?

#138 disciple on 06.15.11 at 2:29 pm

Kaganovich – Excellent link, comrade…
We should all put to bed our childish notion that there is anything called the “free” market. There are only monopolies and conspiracies, the rest is mind games.

#139 UVZ on 06.15.11 at 2:44 pm

#27 SMOKING MAN

Good post. Thanks for keeping ’em coming.

You are actually “one of us”…

#140 westopia on 06.15.11 at 2:58 pm

Moody’s threatens to downgrade French banks.

http://www.advisorone.com/article/moodys-threatens-downgrade-french-banks

It will be like watching dominos fall in Europe. Just follow the exposure to Greek debt.

#141 Mr. Plow on 06.15.11 at 3:12 pm

#53 dubble

You guys could measure weiners too, that would be about as relevant.

#142 Boycott on 06.15.11 at 3:14 pm

Yet to be delivered Carney speech…nothing special, just the same truth mentioned in this blog.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/06/speeches/housing-in-canada/

#143 Kitchener1 on 06.15.11 at 3:20 pm

Industrial Guy

to much debt and that is what will kill the economy in years to come.

people are struggling to service debt now, what happens if rates rise to a paltry 2-3% (BoC rate) it will bury a lot of folks.

Here is the skinny folks. It took a lot of posistive spin, HUGE stimulus packages, emergency interest rates etc.. to get people used too and confident enough to start spending. Well, people are once again scared, scared of lossing their jobs, scared of inflation, etc… they have stopped spending. Without spending we are done.

over consumption and production is also a huge burden on production and sales. Cars, RV’s, boats, houses etc.. were all over produced in the boom 2000’s. There will be huge oversupply in these markets for years too come.

#144 Industrial Guy on 06.15.11 at 3:23 pm

Utopia, There’s a term for guys like you ….. Partisan Political hacks…..

The program has worked until now? What a pile of crap.
That’s like says …. our treatment cured your cancer but it gave you AIDS …. and oh yeah we were wrong about curing your cancer too ..

You are one pompous ASS…. “The hallmark of those who cannot accept any personal responsibility for their own indebtedness, don’t understand interest rate policy and who seem to always forget history.” You’re right. All they understand is paying a mortgage or rent, food, insurance, kids tuition … and they’re industrial wage jobs are gone forever and there is nothing out there paying anything close to what they were making. For twenty years, their middle class taxes were the cash cow that Government across Canada survived on …. Their spending was the driving force behind the national economy.

If you’re over 50, there’s nothing out there for you. I get graduate engineers with gold plated resumes applying for $16.00 per hour welding jobs … and you say all the lost jobs have been recovered? Where? These people are victims of an economy that rewards crooks and punishes hard working people. We shipped entire sectors of our economy to China. I guess from your perspective .. Oh, they need to take responsibility and find a job elsewhere…

Well bud … they have. Working for temp services and retail jobs at$10.50 and hour or becoming instant entrepreneurs. “Self Employed” is just a Government scam to hide the real unemployment situation. Those wages don’t pay their middle class bills …. But that’s OK. You think massive numbers of Canadians sliding into poverty is good ….. They’re being responsible for their own circumstances. After all ….. the private sector will solve everything ….. and I’m doing OK.

#145 Dontcallmeshirley on 06.15.11 at 3:30 pm

No hope for the wicked in Mark Carney’s speech. The text is on the Bank of Canada site.

Carney laments the investment in residential housing, going as far as to implying it’s higher than it should be, but there is no change in the “interest rates will be higher” message.

And more significantly Carney’s speech implies the BofC is content to let the RE market carry on, no Bank intervention, zip.

PS. there was no caution, implied or literal, to trash debt.

#146 Jed on 06.15.11 at 3:34 pm

Query about your comment that most boomers have msot of their assets in RE: how many of thsoe boomerrs are on pension programs? My father is a retired teacher, my mom a nurse, and their pensions cover their expenses now. I wonder what percentage of Canadians are public servants, menaing they eat our tax dollars to fund their pensions. isn’t it 1 in 4; 1 in 3 when you count municipal employees? Not that I think housing is going to flatline; consumer sentiment will change and then prices will begin to retreat, but the socialism which is Canada, not that I agree with it, supports at least a 1/4 of the population.

#147 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 06.15.11 at 3:59 pm

“CHICK TALK” INDEED

Giving a whole new meaning to that title, was last night’s CTV news report from the frontline of what USED to be our national postal strike!

There was this young lady, pounding the posties’ picket line in Toronto, the City of Original sin.

“Discovered” by the TV crew covering the event, and her face full-on to the camera, she looked liked she’d had too many beers, too many cigs, too much sun and way too much wind; a classic blow-dry to be sure, but I digress.

“I’ll get what I deserve!” she wheezed after she spent the previous 20 seconds spitting nails at her employer. By the time that report showed up on my TV, Canada Post had already announced a nationwide lock-out!

Yes, that Union Maiden WILL get what she deserves!

BUT, if she’s really, really lucky she’ll soon join her Air Canada sisters in Ottawa, where back-to-work laws are about to be passed!

Maybe we’ll ALL get what we deserve, contracts too rich for us, too poor for THEM. When will the whining stop?

SO MANY DRAGONS TO SLAY…

So little time.

Ah, yes, Vancouver, Canada’s potential Earthquake Capital is ready for Game 7!

I hope the Canucks win. It’s not that they deserve it, because after 40 years of trial and error, they have INSTEAD EARNED that fabled Canadian Cup and the Boston Thugs HAVE NOT!

Of possible interest in that hockey-mad joint, is the class structure, based on credit ratings, loot and gangsta-egos.

–Those inside the arena can afford the zillion dollar duckets;

–Those out in the streets cheering cannot;

–Those at home are there because they can’t afford the transit fare. And after the game they won’t get able to afford the hydro bill, either!

Reasons? Let me elucidate: Big screen TV, overfull beer fridge, overworked foot douche machine, under-appreciated Bling-Chick from next door trying to sell fake gold and silver coins!

Speaking of fake coins of the realm, what a bunch of kidders those guys are who’re lining up to finish off the Remains of Greece.

The bond viliglantes, the Eurobanksters, the Wall Street entitlement bunnies, and the military junta just waiting in the wings as the Greek plebes organize their next, and very last, general strike.

All of that fear and loathing filtered down, today, into major stock market angst. The red ink was EVERYWHERE.

Go Canucks Go! And pass that Postal chick a brewski!

#148 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.15.11 at 4:00 pm


#179 Timing is Everything on 06.14.11 at 5:14 pm — Well, whaddaya know? By sheer, pure and utter coincidence, I just added trillions to my TFSAs, getting roughly 14% per annum! Curiously strange how things flow together!
*
4:14 clip David Rockefeller blathers on about depop.

GW Global weirding is far more accurate.
*
#76 bigrider — “. . . the housing market published more regularly in the mainstream media.” — Hah! That’s a joke. The m$m is already controlled, so they will never let Garth’s voice of reason on. See responses to #119 and #129 for clarification.

#91 Herb — Good link. Harper can talk all he wants. Talk is cheap; actions and examples speak an awful lot louder than words. “By their fruits shall ye know them . . .”

#119 new_era — “. . . its been planned, its going to be the biggest transfer of wealth . . .” — The money is being removed from the system so as to make us slaves to our masters. Figure out who is removing the money, as they are the cancer which needs to be eradicated.

#131 David B — “. . . they will just declare bankruptcy . . .” — If China does that first (after cashing in on its US debt holdings), then TROTW would be up the creek without a paddle. August seems as good a month as any!

#129 Billy C — “We’re on the verge of a great, great depression. The [Federal Reserve] knows it.”

Which is why Carney is shitting his pants, as he knows that sooner or later, rates have to increase. The mtge. renewals will be screwed, but renters and people who own their homes outright, with no debts remain happy.

#149 disciple on 06.15.11 at 4:10 pm

#146 Jed…
Don’t fall for that mental trap about socialism. Canada is the least socialist nation on Earth.

#150 April Showers on 06.15.11 at 4:15 pm

Here’s a great video on real estate in Vancouver :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bSb-V-tCqY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEQMtryk5Do

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEBpPEi-4ZU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZytZWw7ByM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONweb82b3HY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qItqs4HO6hc

#151 nonplused on 06.15.11 at 4:18 pm

As I speculated might happen earlier, the end of the (economic) world as we know it has just been announced on Rueters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/09/japan-nuclear-reactors-idUSL3E7H81N220110609

If this comes about, the next steps are:

– Severe recession in world’s 3rd largest economy due to widespread electricity shortages
– Parts shortages world wide slowing production (also contributing to recession)
– Default on debt by all major Japanese electric companies
– A financial situation that will make Lehman Brothers look like a walk in the park
– Possible collapse of the Yen

More likely they will restart the reactors after some public displays of solemn safety seriousness.

#152 john on 06.15.11 at 4:21 pm

Garth makes good points about residential housing. However he doesn’t want to discuss real estate taxes. Why not? The taxes in Greater Vancouver are at nosebleed levels and getting worse! If there is a real estate market correction will it make properties a steal? But the taxes are so great no one but the rich or fools would buy.

Bob Rennie is reputed to have said that anyone owing a house in Vancouver just won a lottery ticket. What sort of lottery ticket is it when the starting taxes on the West side are $4,500 per year, a Nigerian lottery perhaps?

What level of invested assets is required to pay these taxes? Well Odlum Brown’s model portfolio for yield is $1.42 million and produces $39,000 per year. The average yield is 3.5 percent. Of course that is before taxes. If your average tax rate in retirement is 33 percent then you need $191,898 in invested assets just to pay $4,500 of real estate taxes! But let’s not forget that the taxes are increasing by 10 percent in two years in Vancouver.

The amazing thing is that no one seems to care. The mayor wastes funds fixing up the city hall (http://www.citycaucus.com/2010/08/renos-run-amok), but no one apparently could care less. The mayor needs privacy! Why? Does he need to walk around in the nude?

Just for the record Garth not every jurisdiction in the world levies confiscatory ‘Capital Gains’ taxes. Also not every country has confiscatory property taxes either. By the way Capital Gains taxes technically apply to Personal use Property, so if you sell your Grandmother’s sterling silver tea service you would have to pay a Capital Gains tax. Who would be foolish enough to voluntarily pay this? But of course no one could care less about our Byzantine and confiscatory tax act.

Vancouver is a great place to live because some very wealthy person from the PRC chose to buy here? But they don’t pay income taxes on the same kinds of income at Canadian rates in the PRC (Interest, dividends and other investment income from PRC sources are subject to tax at a flat rate of 20% with no deductions allowed, http://www.chinataxblog.com/?page_id=174), and certainly would never come here in a million years to pay 43.7 percent marginal income taxes on all income. They are really nice people says one commentator (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-16/chinese-spreading-wealth-make-vancouver-homes-pricier-than-nyc.html). I suppose if you are a billionaire employing wage slaves and your business has no environmental standards at all (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1241872/EXCLUSIVE-Inside-Chinas-secret-toxic-unobtainium-mine.html), then you could afford to drive around Point Grey in a Bentley and express noblesse oblige.

There are some very big problems here. They won’t be solved by a simple real estate market correction. Only a sea change in attitudes, taxation policy and immigration policy will right the problem.

#153 vyw on 06.15.11 at 4:24 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/06/15/carney-banks.html

Carney suggested some parts of the Canadian housing market risk being dominated not by forces or supply and demand, but by the emotions of greed and fear.

“Greed among speculators and investors — and fear among households that getting a foot on the property ladder is a now-or-never proposition,” he said.

#154 maxx on 06.15.11 at 4:26 pm

#22 JohnnyBGood on 06.14.11 at 10:19 pm

…..”Trebuchet…”

LOL

#155 Imstupid on 06.15.11 at 4:29 pm

Thanks Garth

I must be stupid for still thinking logically. Hence imstupid. And all others are smart for running themselves into an early grave because of overwhelming debt. If I was smart I would buy a Ferrari atleast the debt would get me laid more.

#156 Albert Einstein on 06.15.11 at 4:36 pm

College Conspiracy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpZtX32sKVE&feature=pyv&ad=6739540474&kw=scam

=========

Nah..sorry….as someone told me Higher education is a test of wills. I am the Master/PhD…you will obey me….

Like Justice system is justice industry..the Education System is the Education Industry

Higher education is simply a relativity game ….latest teachers set a new benchmark of BS others must reach…if you meet it…it endorses the Teacher…if not you are a lesser mortal…simply snake oil.

Proof is the cost is way out of line ..it never used to be like this.

The system is imploding and with it goes the Ph D grant sucking pimps..they have killed the golden goose…

#157 Jared Rabinowitz on 06.15.11 at 4:42 pm

I remember waiting for a flight at SFO in spring 2006 and this ad caught my attention:

http://www.etfcm.com/images/My_house_is_worth_a_million.jpg

I wonder if anyone else paid attention?

#158 debtified on 06.15.11 at 4:46 pm

#142 Boycott on 06.15.11 at 3:14 pm

Yet to be delivered Carney speech…nothing special, just the same truth mentioned in this blog.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/06/speeches/housing-in-canada/

***********************************************

History will judge Carney as one, if not the, worst BoC governor ever. He saw the problem developed but did nothing to prevent it from getting worse. Just talk – no action. He has had so many chances to do the right thing. But, he did nothing but talk. It’s too late now.

He’s probably thinking that he’s done wonders by helping make Canada look good in 2008/2009. He’s probably using the US situation as an excuse for his inability to rein in on debt accumulation due to easy money policy here at home. History will judge…

All he is really doing is repeat what Greenspan did after the Tech bubble burst in 2000. It’s amazing how obtuse this Carny guy is. He will soon be known as Mr. Carnage.

Hold on to something solid folks (or liquid when it comes to assets). Once the debt deliver aging begins, it’s going to be a wild ride.

#159 Mark Carney You can't do NOTHING! on 06.15.11 at 4:46 pm

I am here to tell Mark Carney to his face you are POWERLESS to do anything. If you stop giving free money to us immigrants we will leave Canada by the hundreds of thousands. Canada is a land of milk and honey where you do not have to work or save to enjoy the goodlife. Mark Carney If you stop the free lunch Canada is finished. I doubt you can or will do anything because Mark Carney is USELESS. I will tell it to your face Mark Carney you are USELESS who is ALL TALK and no action.

#160 Imstupid on 06.15.11 at 4:56 pm

S&P placed China’s real-estate market on watch list. We will see how many Asians buy property here when they go tits up. LOL.

#161 Carney on 06.15.11 at 4:58 pm

Mark Carney charts from today’s speech.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/sp150611.pdf#chart1

#162 Mark Carney is ALL TALK on 06.15.11 at 4:59 pm

You still talking Mark Carney? No one cares about you since you are meaningless. We all know you are all talk. I want more free money because I do not want to work and save . I want to spend and enjoy a life that I deserve. If you take that away I will leave Canada in ECONOMIC RUIN. You have been TALKING and WARNING for 18 months. What have you done…

MARK CARNEY you are a joke and I thank you for the free money I WILL NEVEr PAY BACK.

LOL Mark Carney is a JOKE!

#163 Herb on 06.15.11 at 4:59 pm

#144 Industrial Guy,

too bad you can’t hear the sound of both of my hands clapping.

The strip you tore off Utopia may be a bit wide, but the message is right on.

#164 Mark Carney What Are You Going To Do on 06.15.11 at 5:12 pm

Mark Carney I am indebt to the point I can never pay it back. I pay my mortgage with my LOC. I couldn`t afford to pay my rent but thanks to housing I can live for free and borrow all the money that I want. If you pull the rug from under those indebt we will just go BANKRUPT. I will leave Canada in a second. Mark Carney I can point and laugh in your face. Why and how can I do that…..simply . Mark Carney you are ALL TALK and no action. Thanks to you and your stupidity I have enjoyed the good life for the past three years and made money for doing no work or risking one penny of my money. LOL Canada is the best country in the world. Mark Carney all Talk and no action.

You made the point. Now back to your clients, Mr. Truman. — Garth

#165 bill on 06.15.11 at 5:20 pm

You all know what else will go for a song when the boomers hit the wall?… Harleys. Oh boy oh boy oh boy.

Buzz off. We’re taking them with us. — Garth

I think hog futures are going to be weak… but some will have significantly sized bellies on them….

#166 Bottoms_Up on 06.15.11 at 5:22 pm

Ok, let’s hear the predictions:

Vancouver 3-2 in OT.

#167 No Fun Vancouver on 06.15.11 at 5:44 pm

Why would anyone buy in Vancouver. The City is a joke thimble wine glasses with crap expensive wine. No bars just restaurants and not 3rd world but 4th world Night Clubs.

The place is dog patch, watch out the real estate is going to crash big time!

#168 Harry on 06.15.11 at 5:49 pm

Mr. Plow = Calgary realtor
Liam from Calgary = Calgary realtor

Anybody want to guess which realtor?

#169 Mr Buyer on 06.15.11 at 6:29 pm

151 nonplused…As I stated in a previous post, some of the reporting in the media has been based upon fairy tales in qualified English (may, may, may…I may win the lottery). We have 14 reactors just outside our city (with two more being constructed). There are no plans to shut them down. I will say this clearly once again…JAPAN IS NOT FAILING. If we wish to win we must compete or change the game.

#170 BrianT on 06.15.11 at 6:38 pm

#152John-You make good points but $4500/yr is a very low number for property taxes by North American standards (considering the value of Vancouver property). There are literally worthless properties in Detroit with that number for yearly property taxes-NJ is also insane. IMO that Rennie guy meant you won the lottery as long as you leave town (and live somewhere really cheap).

#171 Garth Please give Mark Carney Sh!T on 06.15.11 at 6:44 pm

Garth that guy Mark Carney has took my future away. Unless I am willing to mortgage my life away I can not become a home “owner“. My sister is a total deadbeat who borrowed her 5% down payment with a few tricks from the mortgage broker and just like that a deadbeat home owner is born. My household income is much greater and now I even couldn`t afford the home she lives in. On top of that she laughs at how she can skip a mortgage payment per year and she has done just that. I asked her when and how she will pay it off and she said whatever its like paying rent. Its better then rent since she can skip a payment and borrow from here home ATM while laughing in my face. Thanks Mark Carney for ruining my family`s life. Those who work and save are suckers and will be punished for being productive members. Those who produce and save nothing are rewarded. Thanks Mark Carney .

#172 Mr. Plow on 06.15.11 at 6:46 pm

#168 Harry…

At first this is what I thought you wrote:

“Mr. Plow = smartest, wittiest, funniest guy on here, calls it as he sees it.

Thanks for defending my ass the other day.”

Then I reread it and saw that you thought I was a realtor and lived in Calgary.

I am not a realtor, and like I have said 3496984 and 1 times I live in Edmonton.

Everyone here is anonymous, so when you have another psychic moment can I be a professional golfer?

#173 SMOKING MAN on 06.15.11 at 6:53 pm

Mark Carney What Are You Going To Do on 06.15.11 at

Sour grapes kid, bashing Mark Carney like you did..

In business have no opinion read the herd, analyze the situation. In life there are two kinds of people, Predators and Prey, having opinions you are married to, or in poker terms your hand, some times it’s tough to lay down.

Flexibly of thought is key, wishful thinking holding on to the aces when the first four cards are diamonds and you have 5 callers, is suicide.

You kids have so much to learn.

#174 Cabot Lodge brylcreem & trenchcoat on 06.15.11 at 7:00 pm

Yo Chad – whose is the 85 K? Yours or the babes? Whoever it belongs to makes the choice. If its yours she’s really pushing to make the choice for you. Chances are feminine peer pressure involved.

Who do you love more her or the 85 K?

If it were me it would be the 85 K. Sorry to be so brutal.

#175 Pr on 06.15.11 at 7:12 pm

15 juin 2011.Carney warns against overheating real estate! “Rates will not remain forever at their current levels ” -M. Carney
The problem M Carney is when you yell * WOLF WOLF * and their is no wolf, the people are not listening to you anymore.
Did your mother teach you that lesson?
May be its voluntary? Who knows !

#176 Daisy Mae on 06.15.11 at 7:25 pm

“Beware of the doghouse”

So! Let THAT be a lesson for ALL of you! LOL

So funny…..

#177 maxx on 06.15.11 at 7:30 pm

#97 Mikey the Realtor on 06.15.11 at 9:42 am

Somewhat agree. It will blow up as you say. However, many are getting crushed now and it will accelerate as the economy is nowhere near improvement and basics of life are attainable only with loc help…and yes, it will affect us all- some more than others.

#178 Utopia on 06.15.11 at 7:33 pm

#144 Industrial Guy on 06.15.11 at 3:23 pm

“Utopia, There’s a term for guys like you ….. Partisan Political hacks…..You are one pompous ASS….”
——————————————————————————

Perhaps. Although I presented a reasoned argument without name calling. You were much less restrained. What is the word for that?
——————————————————————————

BrianT: Thanks Brian. I can assure you I am very concerned about the direction of the economy on the debt issue as I know you are too. I only hope our own deleveraging comes in a benign form in that it happens in a steady predictable way. We Canadians have really bitten off more than we can chew but provided there is no system shock I am confident we will get through this rough patch eventually. We will begin to wake up as stimulus is withdrawn, rates slowly rise and the initial budget cutting begins to hit home. Certainly the virtues of saving and thrift will again make an appearance as people again respect the value of money and see the risk off debt. Public spending as an alternative to make up for a lack of private consumption is just not the answer in my books and it is a fools theory to believe that our government can backfill declining demand. I believe too that the Government has chosen a responsible approach by taking action on the deficit now while the economy is still growing and showing some signs of strength.

#179 TurnerNation on 06.15.11 at 7:46 pm

Saw an ad on TTC for RBC Rewards Visa Card.

It said: “Welcome newcomers to Canada” (or something like this).

And: “No credit history required*”

I did not read the “*” but really does it matter. Harper is open the floodgates; free health care, CPP, and credit cards for all.

Look at the Toronto Police Most Wanted list online for the results of his “Hug-a-Thug” program. :(

#180 TurnerNation on 06.15.11 at 7:54 pm

U.S. Stock Fund Withdrawals Most in Six Months as Markets Fall

June 15 (Bloomberg) — U.S. investors last week pulled the most money from domestic stock funds in six months after equities fell on concerns that the economic recovery may be faltering.

Funds that invest in U.S. stocks lost $5.46 billion in the week ended June 8, the biggest redemptions since the week ended Dec. 8, when investors withdrew $7.6 billion, according to the Washington-based Investment Company Institute. Funds that invest in international equities had $291 million in withdrawals last week, the ICI said today in an e-mail.

#181 Mark Carney (BoC) on 06.15.11 at 7:57 pm

I predict a Game 8

It will end up tied…and a Field Goal will win it.

#182 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 06.15.11 at 7:59 pm


#163 Herb — “The strip you tore off Utopia may be a bit wide, but the message is right on.”

Amen but not wide enough. Insulting, berating and having a holier-than-thou attitude makes an individual look very, very small and unimportant.

To be fair ‘tho, take into account that said poster is not a male, but a SHEmale, a sexually-starved nymphomaniac, living in central or north Skatch with nary a snowflake or prairie gopher to keep her stimulated.

Feed her lotsa lemmings; that will keep her quiet!

#166 Bottoms_Up — “Vancouver 3-2 in OT.”

Or 2-1, but again in OT. Score may be off, but silky and smooth beats sticks and stones.
*
Fukushima First, Fukushima; now, Nevada plus the flooding in the southern states. 0.53 clip — FEMA + Iowa “All this flooding is from the heavy snow the Global Warming Carbonazis insisted we would not get.” wrh.com.

Wheels Seems the wheels are falling off both China and the US. Cue China’s demand to cash in on their US holdings. 8:55 clip Nigel Farage — Politicos + banxters; IMF Barcelona and Span. Infernal Mother F**kers. One reason why no one should buy T-Bills; Supreme Court sides with Wall St. and execs.; Greece Revolution succeeds; old govt. out, new govt. in, problems are still there; Soros bearish on Eurozone, plus other links;

Instant Karma Remember the loony nutbar who claimed the world was ending May 21? He fleeced millions, got rich quick and had a stroke. What goes around comes around! Czech Republic Good for them! TSA security exercise my ass! GM Rice Officials don’t like it (understand why).

#183 Daisy Mae on 06.15.11 at 8:01 pm

Banks, corporations — all reporting losses! Yikes!

#184 1milcrackshacks on 06.15.11 at 8:02 pm

4-2 boston

#185 Pr on 06.15.11 at 8:08 pm

Canadians will say: NO, we will not pay you back! Just like the Greek and the rest of the world, when it come time to pay back the money create out of thin air and land with a bad intention. People are discovering who is doing that to them. Thanks INTERNET and talk radio. Good guys always win!

#186 Devore on 06.15.11 at 8:10 pm

#175 Pr

The problem M Carney is when you yell * WOLF WOLF * and their is no wolf, the people are not listening to you anymore.

The problem here is that whether the people stopped listening or not, the wolf came anyways.

#187 jess on 06.15.11 at 8:19 pm

david b
America is deeper in debt than Greece

DM: What are the key differences between the Euro and another currency, such as the US Dollar?

SK: The primary difference is that the Euro can only be created by the ECB – it is the ISSUER of the currency. The governments of Ireland, Greece, Spain, Germany, etc. are the USERS of the currency.

Members of the Eurozone are like individual states in the US. Like California, Ireland must go out and ‘get’ the currency – either by taxing or borrowing – before it can spend. It must pay whatever financial markets demand, and it can be priced out of the market. It can become insolvent, and it can be forced to default on its debt.

In contrast, the Federal Reserve is the government’s bank. The government does not need to ‘get’ dollars before it can spend because it is the ISSUER of the currency. It simply spends by crediting bank accounts. It does not need to sell bonds in order to run a deficit, and it does not have to pay market rates. It can never become insolvent, and it can never be forced to default on its obligations.
http://neweconomicperspectives.blogspot.com/

#188 S Harper on 06.15.11 at 8:30 pm

Dear Garth
Loved the funny video. Glad your career has rebounded.

Your PM, Steven
ps: you are still fired

#189 BondGuy on 06.15.11 at 8:47 pm

#101 BrianT wrote:
“93Kag-IMO economists are not stupid. What they are (generally) is career conscious and willing to say anything to advance their personal prospects. Jeff Rubin actually admitted that he was asked to leave CIBC because his views had strayed too far from what they were selling…”

Or else it may because he was so hilariously wrong in his calls during 2008 that no sales person wanted to have to go into a client meeting with him afterward.

#190 Herb on 06.15.11 at 9:44 pm

#178 Utopia,

now you are peddling soft soap and writing like a shill:

… the Government has chosen a responsible approach by taking action on the deficit now while the economy is still growing and showing some signs of strength.

What are you talking about? What action on the deficit? Five percent in savings and efficiencies? Cutting 6,000 of the 23,000 (or was it 25,000) that Harper repeat Harper added to the federal payroll? Do let us know what “responsible action” is going to save us from the deficit dragon.

#191 E-Town on 06.15.11 at 9:48 pm

My take on it is trying to see from the Gov’t / Corp. point of view…
Based on the impending shortage of skilled and experienced workers, low pension funds and a system that can’t afford to support everybody and their dog retiring early and all within the next few years. I would be thinking of a way to keep people in the work force longer, paying taxes, paying pension premiums and putting off a huge drag on the system. Wouldn’t you? What better way than giving people what they think they want meanwhile enslaving them to debt and higher taxes. Although they could have just raised the retirement age like France did and have riots in the street… Hey you know what.. it really IS different here!!! Que the HGTV brainwash!!

#192 Herb on 06.15.11 at 9:51 pm

And for you hockey fans out there, remember it’s only a game. It is not war, not sport, but very profitable sportainment.

#193 SE Asian Expat on 06.15.11 at 9:56 pm

HKSAR has waived my HK property tax for the last 4 years. They even gave me an electricity rebate for more than a year that more than covered my utility bill.

My property tax on the villa in Thailand is about $25 per month.

Why are property taxes so high in Canada?

I never thought I got my tax money’s worth in Canada.
If I ever move back to Canada I WOULD RENT.

Meantime, enjoying a cosmopolitan poolside under swaying palms.

#194 Cookie Monster on 06.15.11 at 9:59 pm

BooHooHooCouver! Ha!
The beginning of the end and here comes the crash!

The speech today by Carney was pretty good, the numbers are ominous.

#195 BrianT on 06.15.11 at 10:57 pm

#189Bond-Or maybe you are totally full of crap.

#196 maxx on 06.16.11 at 6:53 am

#125 Utopia on 06.15.11 at 1:12 pm

“Cut the blame game”.

This well-deserved blame is most decidedly not a “game”.

#144 Industrial Guy on 06.15.11 at 3:23 pm-

Bullseye!