Commodities

In Canada, stuff matters. Oil. Copper. Trees. Fertilizer. Uranium. Commodities. When they surge, so does the dollar, jobs, the economy and real estate. For the past two years we’ve been in a commodity boom, taking oil, gold and base metals substantially higher, as the world recovered from its near-death experience. Places with lots of stuff – Canada, Australia – have done okay. Places that consume it – America, Europe – haven’t.

It’s why ages ago I suggested you buy oil, since it was on the way to $100 (we got there, tripling its value). But it’s also why I’ve been telling the metalheads to take their profits on precious metals. Cuz the party’s probably over.

From time to time I’ve tried to connect the dots for people horny about houses. Obviously without success. Real estate’s an end product of confidence. Without an ample supply of jobs, economic growth, rising incomes and sunshine, housing does not flourish. It’s why the US has been in a housing recession for the past 57 months, and daily it grows worse. Meanwhile the patina of prosperity – a high loonie and bustling resource companies, for example – have lulled too many Canadians into record debt and a lust for homes at nasty prices.

Yeah, I’ve bored you with lots of reasons why real estate has a troubled future. Like the normalization of interest rates. Battalions of busted Boomers staggering into senility. Tighter credit. Or debt fatigue.

But still the little hornies keep buying, storming sales trailers, using 95% leverage, pushing average values higher. Some people (most people, actually) take higher prices as proof real estate is hot. But all around us seems irrefutable evidence none of this might last, as we stall and shudder into a lower economic gear. It’s there, if you care to look. Sadly most people won’t. That’s why they’re not reading this miserable blog.

In case you missed it, oil, copper, silver, even gold have been intensely volatile, swinging wildly in valuation and mostly dropping from earlier highs. A new Bloomberg survey of people who invest zillions for others found that 30% are bailing out of commodities and another third are boosting cash-type investments. So much for the end of paper money.

Anyway, draw your own conclusions. Here are a few reasons the tide’s going out:

Demand for oil is actually dropping – the first time since the recession and defying common wisdom. As gas prices cross the key $4-per-gallon mark, Americans are hanging up their keys or buying econoboxes.

The implications for Canada are profound and for Alberta, monumental. We sell $200 million a day worth of the stuff to the Yanks, so lower demand means high anxiety.

Making matters more acute are disasters. The Japanese earthquake and tsunami crippled the world’s third-biggest economy and slashed its oil consumption. The nuclear meltdown at Fukushima pretty much fukushima’d the uranium market. And now the massive floods in the southern US have rendered roads impassable and sidelined gasoline-producing refineries.

Then there’s the American housing crisis, steadily reducing the size and purchasing power of the world’s greatest middle class. Over 13% of all houses in the country are now vacant, almost a third of all homeowners are under water, and over $5 trillion in home equity has vaporized. Lousy consumer spending means a slower economy, less gas, fewer barrels, reduced imports and cheaper houses in Edmonton.

China’s official inflation rate is 5.3%, enough to freak out the central bank which is tightening credit and trying to slow economic growth. Bank reserve requirements were raised again yesterday. Interest rates are going up in India for the same reason. Meanwhile Portugal’s a basket case and Greece is smelling again, raising new concerns about European prospects. Given all this, why not expect global growth to stall and the appetite for stuff to wane?

And kiss stimulus goodbye. In the US the Fed will stop throwing endless billions into buying bonds (leading to higher interest rates) while Tea Partiers force Obama into pre-election austerity. As for F and the Majority Cons, well, just wait for next month’s budget. Let’s hope you voted for less.

Ask yourself: is this the kinda news which makes you want to borrow big to buy granite? Have the fundamentals been manipulated by desperate governments to mask a darker reality? Was it just dumb to think we could all go back to normal so, so painlessly? How did we get to believe it’s okay for a routine SFH to cost $1 million? Or for young couples without money to get better first homes than their parents ever had?

Could this whole 2009-11 real estate orgy, following the housing crash of 2008, have been one giant sucker’s rally?

Beats me. I just know this. The fool who follows is the greater fool.

169 comments ↓

#1 S.B. on 05.12.11 at 9:19 pm

((First? :lol: )

Alert! Further cracks appearing in US system? Penson is one of the larger non-bank clearing firms. Their stock was $40 a few years ago…I guess the smart money fled.

Gentlemen: The SHHTF.

Penson’s Stock Plummets After Disclosure of Illiquid Receivables
| May 12, 2011 Chris Kentouris

The stock of Penson Worldwide tumbled after it disclosed it had $97.4 million of “nonaccruable receivables.”

Of that amount, about $42.6 million is collateralized by bonds issued by Retama Development Corp and related interests. Retama Development Corp. owns the Retama Park racetrack in Selma, Texas near San Antonio.

Penson, the only publicly traded and non-bank owned clearing firm, cited the non-accruals under the category of risk factors in its quarterly filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 9. Penson, whose stock trades on the NASDAQ Stock Market, closed at $3.12 a share, down 81 cents or 20.61 percent on Thursday. The stock had plunged as low as $2.73 a share this week.

“With respect to the nonaccrual receivables at March 31, 2011, about $42.6 million were collateralized by bonds issued by the Retama Development Corp. Certain related parties to the company own $14.7 million of RDC bonds that are pledged to the company and or its affiliates,” said Penson in its 10Q. The fact that the receivables are listed in the category of non-accruals means the collateral is illiquid, according to an industry executive familiar with the case.


Securities analysts are a bit more pessimistic about the effects of Penson’s disclosure on its business.

“We believe that nearly $100 million of nonaccrual receivables is a troubling level for a company of Penson’s size,” wrote Richard Repetto, principal at Sandler O’Neill & Partners, a New York-based broker-dealer and investment banking firm in a research note

#2 Stefan on 05.12.11 at 9:27 pm

I’ll stop buying gold and silver when governments stop devaluing currency.

#3 squidly77 on 05.12.11 at 9:33 pm

Your right, Canada has felt little pain from the 2008 stock market disaster, instead we’ve been fed a steady supply of oxycontin which has artificially guarded from the pain. It’s coming.

By the way, anyone trying to access any other blogs that use blogger as in .blogspot, the service has been down for most of the day.

#4 Ronaldo on 05.12.11 at 9:41 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/business/11housing.html?_r=2&emc=eta1 Getting worse in U.S. housing for sure…..soon to occur here in Canada…party will soon be over in RE horny lower mainland….

#5 squidly77 on 05.12.11 at 9:42 pm

I’ll stop buying gold and silver when governments stop devaluing currency.

And when your ready to convert your Gold to cash, just what would be your currency of choice ? Or will I be forced into carrying little satchels of gold dust and a set of scales everywhere I go ?

Your key word their was ‘government-s’
All currency’s will fluctuate wildly over the coming few years, one month it’ll be the Euro blowing up, another month it’ll be the Pounds turn then the Yen and on and on we will go.

Your basically gambling in the FOREX markets with Gold, that’s way to volatile for most of us.

#6 Boombust on 05.12.11 at 9:43 pm

Well Garth, I’m starting to feel like Boxer in Animal Farm.

“I will work harder”.

Bring it on. I’m tired of waiting.

#7 Kurt on 05.12.11 at 9:47 pm

There’s something I find puzzling about the posts that promote precious metals over fiat currency. They all assume that someone who denominates their investments in fiat actually holds fiat. In the case of equities, this is completely untrue: the investor holds ownership of an economic entity, presumably one that spits out real value regardless of whether those returns are denominated in ounces of gold or funny little paper placeholders. The value of that ownership can be valued in fiat, precious metals or shares of the underlying economic entity itself. You *could* argue that value of a bond is tied to the fiat its coupon is denominated in, but I’m not talking about bonds. The only way that ownership of precious metal could be superior to an appropriately-valued equity is if there was some economic event in the offing that would destroy the underlying economic entity that the equity represents. So tell me goldbugs (especially the more sophisticated ones), under what conditions does holding PM make more sense than holding a diversified portfolio of equities? Remember, a steady erosion (as opposed to a sudden collapse) of the value of fiat won’t impair the underlying economic entities. Am I missing something?

#8 squidly77 on 05.12.11 at 9:48 pm

Look with your eyes wide open at what happened to Silver in just a few days, down over 30% just like that. All it took was a small rise in margin from 6% up to 8% to collapse and wipe out half or more of the investors.

**I am not sure what the exact margin was today, please correct me if I’m wrong.

#9 Mr. Lee on 05.12.11 at 9:51 pm

Could this whole 2009-11 real estate orgy, following the housing crash of 2008, have been one giant sucker’s rally?

Damn striaght Mr. Turner, you know this to be true. Let us see what Mr. C does May 31 2011. The party was over in 2008 but for the central banks and their bottle of Tylenol. Assets go up and down in value but deb stays. That is a lesson that Calgarians will learn for the third time since I have walked this earth.

#10 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.12.11 at 9:52 pm


Are they The Beach Gurlz in the pic? Look remarkably stoned and out to lunch!

“Sadly most people won’t. That’s why they’re not reading this miserable blog.” — The blog isn’t that miserable. Honest, yes and the truth hurts; people cannot stand the reality of life. Most are up to their toupees in debt, trying to figure out how to offload their principle residence and downsizing to finance their retirement.

Life will teach them better, as life is the greatest teacher. Generally, one does not live high off the hog, except for the years between 10 – 30; after that, one tends to settle down.
*
Mississippi Burning “. . . the Port of New Orleans said the Coast Guard could close the river to ships as early as Monday, halting traffic on one of the world’s busiest commercial waterways.”

CC “In the video report, it says temperatures are already colder than the record set last winter, and this is only the middle of their autumn!” wrh.com. Weather iz warming up, and the carbonazi tax is coming in. NOT!

Proof banxters are scum, pure and simple. Paul Krugman Would you believe it?

Trump Trumped “The reality of his crash in polls smacks the Donald square across the face.” wrh.com.

Destabilization This is what TPTB are top notch at doing — creating fake pandemonium in order to get what they want.

Gold and Silver Coins “Watch other states with some degree of intelligent leadership follow South Carolina’s lead on this; the US dollar is in real peril of falling, and fast.” wrh.com. Secession Worth pondering, even in Canada.

Big Pharma “Chemotherapy drugs are extremely toxic to the human body, and they are readily absorbed through the skin.” Plus Better Cancer Treatments.

Warmongers Proof is in the pudding.

The US Fed declares war on the world, hiding behind the facade of the WH. It’s the only way the US will ever get out of debt, and here’s why.

C-H-F and Austerity It does sound as if all this was conveniently pre-planned.

Links in The Crashes of 2005 – 2013. Someone has already said the US will be finished as a country by 2016, four years after the election but I’m not sure whether that is due to politics, crime, ‘quakes, volcanoes etc.

GS Downgraded? Fun and games with Dick and Janes.

Chaos — Lucifer (the negative force) is back in town, leading to Not For Queasy Stomachs Cruise ship caught in the middle of a storm. First clip (0:35) taken from a helicopter, second (1:24) taken inside.

#11 john on 05.12.11 at 9:52 pm

If someone is sitting on large sum of cash (700K) from selling their paid home, where can they safely invest it for a 1 year period ensuring it is insured should something go wrong at the financial institution?

#12 JohnnyBGood on 05.12.11 at 9:54 pm

To truly understand current circumstances, one needs a long view of history.

The real wealth of the middle class in the West has been shrinking, relative to the economy, since the late ’60s/early ’70s. (The US killed the gold-dollar standard in ’71. Coincidence?)

Since then there has been a growing gap between productivity and real incomes. In a debt money system the debt/money supply must keep growing or the (banking) system dies. Since the growth in wealth could not match the required growth in money and productivity, consumers were suckered into taking on more and more and more debt to feed the banks and corporations—until that debt could no longer be serviced.

The US hit the wall in around 2006 or 2007. Canada will soon, unless a new, long-term growth engine emerges. Could commodities be that engine? Is there enough wealth in Canadian terra firma, and the market demand for it, to keep Canada and its housing market growing and growing while we approach ‘peak everything’?

Maybe. But surely, even long-term growth will have its setbacks. China has not yet has its ‘depression’ as its economy corrects before the next expansionary phase, assuming there will be one.

It’s safe to say China will pull back at some point, if only temporarily. If demand from other places (ahem, the US) does not fill the void, what then for Canadian commodities? Couple that with Canadian peak debt. Couple that again with growing labour competition, not from just Mexico or China, but the southern US, reinforced by US laws that entice or force US companies to ‘hire their own’ and what then for Canada? Here come the NDP.

#13 Ron Cameron on 05.12.11 at 10:05 pm

Hi Garth, Here is a real estate Armageddon scenario even a Hummer pilot on hemorrhoids couldn’t have envisaged.

Norwegian Radiation maps of the Fukushima disaster show three airborne paths for the contaminated particles: over Hawaii, up the California coast to Vancouver Island and the lower mainland; down the Aleutian Islands to VI and the LM and finally straight across to VI and the LM. The only direction missing is Ottawa and we don’t get any information from them either.

North American governments decided not to monitor air flows and the media chose not to cover the issue in the belief that if it can’t be seen, felt or tasted and no one hears about it, then it is a non-event. Or perhaps they were told not to cover it.

However if it was visible as glowing black particles in the air and milk there would be panic. This continuous flow indicates the most dangerous place to be right now, other than Fukushima, may be Vancouver Island. But you won’t read that in the Sun. Vancouver is just nine miles away.

When buyers out here realize radiation is potentially more dangerous than MSG or red dye, what will happen to property values? There isn’t much demand for waterfront property in Fukushima Prefecture right now. And if an evacuation order was issued? The million dollar tear down in East Van that rivals Osama’s mansion in value may become much more reasonable.

#14 not 1st on 05.12.11 at 10:06 pm

Only one sector of commodities likely to hold up and thats the ag sector because demographics and global warming disasters have created the perfect storm.

We add 80 million mouths to the world each year and will cross 7 billion people this year on our way to 9 billion. These people won’t be the new rich and ascending, they will be hand to mouth survival and whatever they make in income will go directly to the basics of life and that ain’t ipads.

#15 LH on 05.12.11 at 10:08 pm

Sure, the middle class is getting squeezed, but the plutocracy seems to be doing fine! Just as New York, Boston, San Francisco, LA etc is weathering the crisis alright, it is entirely possible that nice, central areas of Toronto will outperform (that is, decline less) even if the Canada-wide housing market plummets.

#16 Ronaldo on 05.12.11 at 10:08 pm

We hear about the U.S. being in deficit 1.5 trillion dollars per year but what does a trillion dollars actually look like……this will give you an idea…pretty amazing really http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html

#17 Kuwaiti on 05.12.11 at 10:13 pm

@ #5

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM&feature=related

Also, gold and silver is just nice to have around the house, in the form of ornaments and furniture. Sure you can’t go HGTV on your house with silver or gold, but small tasteful items that grow in value over the long term while making the house pretty is a win win.

#18 The InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 05.12.11 at 10:14 pm

Number 7 Kurt said:

They all assume that someone who denominates their investments in fiat actually holds fiat.

Kurt you are exactly right and not missing anything.

Most people do not know the difference between wealth and money. Wealth in a house or in the stock market is not in dollars it is in real estate or corporations as you say Kurt.

Wealth in a long term bond however is in fiat money.

It’s the fiat-fearing nutbars who are missing a lot. They know a couple of facts but they jump to the wrong conclusions.

#19 randman on 05.12.11 at 10:15 pm

Tsk..Tsk…Tsk Garth Shame on you!

From the report you quote..

“The survey was taken after a turbulent week in the markets that saw commodity prices suffer their biggest decline in more than two years.”

Timing of survey a little convienient…don’t you think?

How about this?

“Sixteen percent identified commodities as one of the markets that will suffer the worst returns over the next year”

What are the other 84% investors doing ?

Or this…

Ken Welby a SALESMAN for KNG securities says

“Commodities have “become a bubble, with a lot of non- specialist investors,” said Ken Welby, a salesman at KNG Securities LLP in London and a poll participant.”

Here is the blurb from the KNG website

KNG Securities LLP (‘KNG’) is an independent dealer specialising in corporate finance and secondary markets in both the convertible bond and fixed income products. Established in 2003, KNG seeks to leverage the combined experience of its principals and professional staff to provide a high quality, unbiased and focused service to its institutional client base. KNG strives to source liquidity in mixed market conditions.
Specialisation

KNG Securities aims to identify value-added opportunities in corporate and convertible bonds, assisting institutional money managers to achieve outperformance.

Hmmm…specializing in Convertible Bonds and fixed income vehicles

A completely opposite strategy to commodities…any bias here you think?

And finally Garth, you suggest this survey is only professional investors, but in actual fact here is who was surveyed…

“The quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll of investors, traders and analysts was conducted by Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa- based firm.”

INVESTORS,TRADERS and ANYALYSTS

At best only a third of those surveyed are those as you say…..

“survey of people who invest zillions for others ”

I implore people not to take everything you read as gospel…do your own due diligence

And it still stated a third of respondents think commodities will tank and another third are moving into cash, which is all I reported. Accurately. — Garth

#20 somejerk on 05.12.11 at 10:23 pm

G, Save image three for a blog post 15 months from now

http://toronto.kijiji.ca/c-ViewAdLargeImage?AdId=271947729

#21 Jim on 05.12.11 at 10:25 pm

Canada traded commom sense for commodity crazines and now comes the crash. Cripes!

#22 JohnnyBGood on 05.12.11 at 10:25 pm

LH, RE markets are local, yes. But are you saying the plutocrats live in New York, Boston, San Fran and LA? Are there none in Chicago, or Peoria, or Wichita? What about the kleptocrats, or the autocrats, or the technocrats, or the aristocats? Where do they live?

#23 randman on 05.12.11 at 10:35 pm

Squidly…your ridiculous response shows your ignorance

Cash is only the interm medium being used to buy and sell goods right now…the cash in your pocket are really only IOU’s , they work for the moment but do you want to be holding IOU’s from someone who declares bankruptcy or worse, dies?

Gold has 5000 years of history backing it’s use as money of the last resort…

Read that again…MONEY OF LAST RESORT

When Stephan wishes to convert his Gold ( If he needs to convert or exchange straight up) Then he can choose ANY paper currency

And by the way…..we all need to convert our investments into the exchange medium of the day when we wish to cash out…try taking your 1000 shares of Apple to the grocery store!

And regarding your comments on Silver…where do you get your figure of ” half or more silver investors being wiped out”?

I bought mine at an average of $13 …how am I
‘wiped out’ ?

#24 Ronaldo on 05.12.11 at 10:37 pm

#8 Squidly 77 – 84% rise in margins for silver is not small………….they did it to the Hunts as well….there was a pre warning of it happening on May 1st and I personally cashed in on the Sunday prior to world markets opening at 49.44 and locking in my price…..turned out to be a very wise move….silver is not yet dead tho….there will be another big bounce up before the next correction which should happen very soon….

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/09/business/economy/09commodities.html?_r=1&pagewanted=2

#25 randman on 05.12.11 at 10:38 pm

“And it still stated a third of respondents think commodities will tank and another third are moving into cash, which is all I reported. Accurately. — Garth”

Garth,would you agree that this firm is bias as per
the types of investments they sell?

#26 mackie on 05.12.11 at 10:40 pm

I’ll take my chances with gold and silver and other commodities, Thanks. There will be a time to get out of these, but I very much doubt it is now. Selling precious metals now would be like selling your Vancouver home ten years ago. You might make a tidy profit but there’s so much further to go thanks to governments continuing to devalue their FIAT dollars.

#27 Midas on 05.12.11 at 10:45 pm

By a fluke, I got out of uranium a few weeks before the Japanese disaster. On the other commodities, I started lightening up a few months ago.

The bull run on gold is not yet finished, but we could see yet another hit when the China bubble bursts. Interesting times.

#28 Patz on 05.12.11 at 10:45 pm

A line up of greater fools or were they the shills for a parade of greater fools? we’ll see. CTV Vancouver, not wanting Global to have all the fun pumpin’ RE, put on its own pathetic parade of pumpers tonight. From left to right: Michael Buble, his agent Bruce Allen and former Canuck coach Pat Quinn who all sang the praises of a Tsawwassen residential cum golf course development. Apparently the trio were all investors with Buble saying he was going to take a condo there too.

Good luck fellas. No matter how bad it gets y’all can always get together and hit that little ball around.

#29 Jordan on 05.12.11 at 11:07 pm

Can the US afford to raise interest rates? Will they be able to service their debt if they do?

The prevailing argument for commodities is that the US cannot afford to stop creating money; therefore, the rate of inflation will increase.

If this is the case, won’t PMs, oil, and potash be good investments?

Could the recent loses in commodities be a mere correction leading to bigger gains, or does the technical analysis suggest that this is the beginning of a bear market?

#30 Timing is Everything on 05.12.11 at 11:10 pm

#14 not 1st

The Biggest bubble——->people

Kind of an interesting read…

http://tinyurl.com/3jv8bq4

http://tinyurl.com/3utawq4

#31 JohnnyBGood on 05.12.11 at 11:10 pm

#7 Kurt & #18 The InvestorsFriend:

Money has three uses: store of value, currency, and unit of account.

Gold is always a store of value. It becomes currency when confidence in the fiat currency, or in the government whose credit backs the fiat currency, is lost. It can become a unit of account under a gold money system.

The history of fiat money shows that all fiat currencies end, and usually not well. But gold has always had value. A cache of gold in a sunken Spanish galleon would have about as much economic value today as it had in the 16th century. A trunk of Continentals? Maybe historical or numismatic value, but useless as currency. Also, gold has been used as money for a much greater portion of human history than fiat money.

Something only has value if there is demand for it, whether its fiat money, gold, homes, stocks, bonds, oil, etc. The supply/demand balance will determine the price. Gold has always had value because there has always been some level of demand for it. Because gold has special properties that make it a good store of value and desirable to own.

I am not a gold bug. I personally think money should be backed by a nation’s productivity and sound government, rather than a hunk of metal. But the value of gold is that it is no one’s liability and no matter what happens to governments and economies, it always has value. That’s why it becomes the fallback when things go awry.

Stocks are ‘paper’ but they also have real value, like homes, gold and oil. You are correct, if that’s what you meant. That’s why stock prices go up when the value of fiat money goes down (inflation)–all other things being equal. However, unlike gold, stocks are directly tied to the economy, so if the economy shrinks so will the value of stocks.

#32 Randis on 05.12.11 at 11:12 pm

For #11 John … The keywords/keyphrases you used in your question are “safely”, “1 year”, “insured”, and “things go wrong with the financial institution” … I guess you don’t have a lot of choice except for the measely GICs with some CDIC-protected institutions

For #16 Ronaldo … very interesting info you shared right there, thank you very much. =]

#33 $froma$ia-The mother of all Bubbles on 05.12.11 at 11:14 pm

~Beats me. I just know this. The fool who follows is the greater fool.-GARTH~

And I am a follower of Garth, therefore I am…

$

#34 Hovering on 05.12.11 at 11:14 pm

@ ron cameron

norwegian radition maps ?

website / source please ?

#35 Devore on 05.12.11 at 11:15 pm

#8 squidly77

Look with your eyes wide open at what happened to Silver in just a few days, down over 30% just like that. All it took was a small rise in margin from 6% up to 8% to collapse and wipe out half or more of the investors.

I don’t say it a lot, but lol?

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/bernanke/Comex%20Margin%20Hikes_2.jpg

#36 Sick-of-waiting-to-buy on 05.12.11 at 11:18 pm

Ofcourse, the fools who followed Garth have been proven greter fool.

#37 BC Bring Cash on 05.12.11 at 11:18 pm

According to an article from zerohedge.com it took the Roman Empire almost 200 yrs to collapse due to the debasement of the silver content of their currency from the year 64 to 268 AD. In other words it took the Roman Empire 2 centuries to collapse. The silver content of currency went to almost zero. Compare that plunge in value to more recent tanking of the $US.
The purchasing power of the $US has collapsed by 97% since the the inception of the current $US by the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. (The Fed is not a government branch, but a private banking cartel) In other words inflation is nothing new and the financial elites will do anything they can to rip you off. They benefit from inflation because they get a first crack to spend those new zeros added to the currency to buy more assets for themselves.

#38 dave in calgary on 05.12.11 at 11:21 pm

Did anyone notice that the two tall chicks in the picture have facial hair?? Gross.

#39 . on 05.12.11 at 11:21 pm

Y’know….maybe it’s just me……but I think there may be trouble ahead

#40 BPOE Evil Twin on 05.12.11 at 11:22 pm

Y’know….maybe it’s just me……but I think there may be trouble ahead.

I think I better invest in Kelowna Real Estate and stay ahead of the pack

#41 randman on 05.12.11 at 11:37 pm

Excerpt from Rolling Stones Matt T on the case against Goldman Sucks

“To recap: Goldman, to get $1.2 billion in crap off its books, dumps a huge lot of deadly mortgages on its clients, lies about where that crap came from and claims it believes in the product even as it’s betting $2 billion against it. When its victims try to run out of the burning house, Goldman stands in the doorway, blasts them all with gasoline before they can escape, and then has the balls to send a bill overcharging its victims for the pleasure of getting fried.”

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-people-vs-goldman-sachs-20110511?page=3

#42 LH on 05.12.11 at 11:39 pm

@ JohnnyBGood #22

Yes, Real Estate markets are intensely local. I may have forgotton to mention other relatively healthy markets like Washington, DC and parts of Honolulu, HI.

Chicago, and the rest of Illinois hosts some pretty impressive multinational companies (Boeing, Caterpillar, etc. and even the management of Potash). However the midwest suffers from a relative paucity of immigrants and especially asian (read: moneyed) immigrants, to ill effect on their real estate market!

#43 honest weights on 05.12.11 at 11:45 pm

Great website Garth. I’ve been following gold since 2003. This is when I realized the paper money we use is as valuable as the paper it’s printed on. Check out the 10 year gold chart.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html

This has been a steady rise and the whole time – including now – most mainstream analysts have been deriding it as an investment. And of course, the average person (and some above average people like Garth) has been clueless about gold’s role: it’s a currency which cannot be printed; a store of value like none other. 2 silver dollars could fill up a gas tank in the 50’s and the same amount of silver can do the same today.

What will happen when the mainstream really clue into this reality? When taxi drivers start giving you gold/silver mining stock tips, you’ll know it’s time to get out. We’re nowhere near that time. But it’s coming. Throughout history there have always been times of gold fever. There’s no fever like gold fever.

Gold will be the ultimate bubble but it’s not yet.

#44 smartalox on 05.13.11 at 12:03 am

Beats me. I just know this. The fool who follows is the greater fool.

And what of those that follow “The Greater Fool”?

#45 Jimbo on 05.13.11 at 12:06 am

#7… “So tell me goldbugs (especially the more sophisticated ones), under what conditions does holding PM make more sense than holding a diversified portfolio of equities?”

2008.

#46 r on 05.13.11 at 12:18 am

All the hot money flowing around from the QEasing has been pushing the commodity space. Now margin requirement hikes keep coming every few days. This drives out the weak hands and trips the algos into a selling frenzy.

The selloffs tend to be shortlived in Gold and Silver with the Asians buying hand over fist. Central banks are becoming net buyers of gold as well.

The more conspiracy minded think Uncle Ben Bernanke needs a deflation scare to justify the next round of QE.

One thing I find funny is that the monetary policies have resulted in the inflationary pressures and instead of dealing with sane policy, Obama declares war on the ‘evil’ speculators to fight inflation [that they created]. You’d think an election cycle were coming.. er…oh…

#47 Chris on 05.13.11 at 12:31 am

Ha ha ha ha, ha ha ha ha.
Stop. Y’all look crazy.

That being said… Property assessments are due soon in Calgary. Initial statement comes out this month I believe…

Results should be interesting to say the least. If values are down, then if you believe some of the doom and gloom set, the people be scurrying to the exits (to sell and get out while the getting’s good, provided that the mortgage cheque they owe to the bank isn’t more than they can afford at end game time).

If you believe some of the BPOE set, people be scurrying to sell and make money (while the sunshine is still shining…)

That being said… Stop. Y’all look crazy … Ain’t no sense talkin plutocrats, kleptocrats, autocrats, technocrats, or aristocrats…

It’s not a ‘crat thang. It’s a contrarian cat thang, and you just gots to understand…

#48 grantmi on 05.13.11 at 1:19 am

http://bit.ly/lYwxhF

Holy Rate Increase Batman!

#49 realpaul on 05.13.11 at 1:26 am

Its hard to believe that monetary commodities will die on the vine at this point when the macro indicates the further issuance of debt and currency.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13372307

Its easy to think that the government can print their way out of the mess they’re in…but producers aren’t that stupid. The above article justify’s the EU position on perpetual low interest rates…..except they don’t say where the money will come from. Stating the obvious from a US or Canadian perspective would be redundant.

Fundamentally , demand is on track to treble over the next ten years according to the IMF. The inverse of China’s new margin requirements and reserve settings are that industrial demand is ‘superhot’ for lack of a better term. I am pretty sure that monetizing the dollar will not bring down the price of oil. The Arabs are not going to accept ten cents on the dollar for a barrel of oil….they’re probably going to want the whole enchilada. So, get ready to pull out a lot more paper out of your pocket……it will be worth less and sure as hell won’t buy more. There was a crazy real estate agent in TO recently state that incomes in ten years time would average $300,000 p/a. That may be since we keep Zimbabwe-izing the currency. On that scale it’s not hard to see gold at $100,000 an ounce. At the same time a banana will cost $500 ‘New Dollars’…..and we’ll all be ‘millionaires’.

Top down….pretty well any producer of any commodity is crazy proitable at this point…..with rare exception…accepting that volitility has brought the price of bulk commodities down temporarily. Given that the slide has been entirely induced by the coordinated of Central Governments we can assume that the markets will quickly pick up the slack.

If you’re a day trader….as always…keep your stops short. The longer term investors should be picking up the bargains in the sectors affected by the manipulations. Our own Jeff Rubin recently stated that the increased gas prices we see today are just the harbinger of whats to come…Jeffs a really smart guy. Rob McKewan…Chairman of Goldcorp came out today and put a $2000 price tag on an ounce of gold before the end of this year. Rob knows more about gold dynamics than anyone on the planet…and he’s a Canucks fan!

“When they’re yellin’, you should be sellin’…….when they’re cryin’ you should be buyin’….Jesse Livermore.

#50 Robert Dudek on 05.13.11 at 1:38 am

The world’s central banks are net buyers of gold. This is a recent phenomenon. The reason is simple: there is a fundamental lack of trust in the US dollar because of the extremely loose monetary policy in that country. China and Russia have announced their intentions to build up their reserves to exceed the US “official” gold reserves.

Gold will be a good investment until the US Fed starts to raise rates from the current near zero. They have already announced that they will not do so this year, and are only murmuring about possibly doing so next year.

China is still growing; India is growing. Consumption of oil in these countries will put a floor on the price of oil for the foreseeable future. Many analysts think we have already hit peak oil production – note this does not mean we are running out of oil, only that our ability to produce it in a given time frame has peaked.

There will be a scramble for the resources of this world, as large parts of Asia and Latin America attempt to mimic our lifestyles in the West.

And no we will not have to carry around gold dust and silver coins to pay for things. Most things will still be bought and sold electronically as they are now, but gold will be a favoured STORE of wealth, since it is now trivially easy to convert gold into fiat money when you need to for current expenditure.

#51 Nick on 05.13.11 at 1:41 am

#15 LH
You are right, housing in nice areas of major international cities will never be cheap. But that doesn’t mean it can’t go down. The house I rent here in Los Angeles went from 300k in 2000 to 900k in 2005. Now it’s probably worth 600k and falling… This in a desirable area with no foreclorsure whatsoever, where people make good money. Had the owner bought in 2005, he would have trouble sleeping at night. So yes, the value won’t go to zero, but the potential for pain and slow burn is here, especially when interest rates swing back to normal levels.

#52 Jody on 05.13.11 at 2:12 am

Metals won’t crash, buy in the dips. So long as the PRIVATE federal reserve prints money so the US feds can monetize their debt metals will keep going up. It’s cheaper for the yanks to print money and monetize their debt, it’s cheaper to pay back a debt with dollars worth less and less.

The cat’s out of the bag, people now understand that fiat currency is not a safe store of wealth, there is no going back. When the price manipulation currently being done by our scumbag federal governments and corporate masters is exposed watch for even greater price rises in metals. Of course the best investment is in family and land, also seeds, guns and ammo. The end is nigh, the die has been cast, our fate sealed. I’m locking myself in my root cellar now.

#53 Coho on 05.13.11 at 2:21 am

Ask yourself: is this the kinda news which makes you want to borrow big to buy granite? Have the fundamentals been manipulated by desperate governments to mask a darker reality? Was it just dumb to think we could all go back to normal so, so painlessly? How did we get to believe it’s okay for a routine SFH to cost $1 million? Or for young couples without money to get better first homes than their parents ever had?

What is unfolding in the world right now should make one contemplate more than just buying a house or attempting to finance their retirement. Even for those that get a leg up and have accumulated a tidy sum likely won’t be able to keep it all for themselves. It’ll be redistributed to the majority of have-nots to prevent (or delay) anarchy.

Heard today that the British Government is pressuring (and has succeeded) Swiss banks into withdrawing as much as 50% from privately held personal accounts of wealthy British citizens and transferring the funds into British government coffers. The account holders apparently have no recourse. How can they complain to the government when they’ve been stashing their wealth out of the country? See what’s in store for the sheeple — even the upper class with the silky coats? Sounds unbelievable and perhaps this is misinformation, but really, it is not so surprising in this, the “new normal” that is upon us.

Speaking of normal, why do we still assume things will get back to “normal” be it painful or pain free? We are experiencing:

Financial crises like never before seen

Unprecedented natural and man-made disasters

The gutting of the middle class

Criminal/fraudulent banking/investment practices.

Pensions being looted or gambled with by Wall Street

Entire countries being looted and/or going bankrupt and those that have held up better will be stuck with the burden of attempting to buoy those going down. It’ll be like grabbing onto a drowning man and getting pulled down as well.

Trashing of the US Bill of Rights

Midnight curfews proposed in Quebec for young adults so all the middle aged folk and seniors cruising around in the middle of the night will be safer on the streets?! That’s a joke. If it passes, how will this be enforced? Is this the direction we want our society to go? Prepare for roadblocks galore and getting pulled over for no reason other than being asked for your papers to prove you are over the age of 24.

Yep, the gov will keep us safe. All we have to do is hand over our rights and dignity and for that we may be .001% safer. Maybe. Cripes are we getting to be afraid of our own shadows? Is that a good trade off? I’ll bet people are travelling less because of the indignity of being groped, radiated, and the rest of the window dressing of screening for terrorists. Meanwhile radiation is flooding the northern hemisphere and there is hardly a peep or a warning on the MSM. If it isn’t in the news then it isn’t an issue? I wonder how many of us think that.

And didn’t the government move the radiation monitoring stations from the coast and into the Kamloops valley where they’ll likely measure much less radiation, if they’re even operating? They make more and more laws and diminish our rights to keep us safe from “booga booga”, but when something actually happens, like multiple full scale reactor core meltdowns upwind from us, not a peep from the administrators of this country. What they’ve done in the USA is “officially” increased the amount of “safe radiation” levels by 10 to 100 times! See, problem solved. I guess the authorities don’t want to “panic” the people with the truth. It serves much better to scare them just enough to accept draconian laws through propaganda.

Anyone else getting nervous about all of this talk of impending terrorist attacks in retaliation for OBL’s recent alleged death? The talking heads in America claim the terrorist threat is greater now than it was before they went into Iraq and Afghanistan and soon into Pakistan by the sounds of it. A trillion dollars spent and many more enemies made, therefore “we have to be ever more vigilante”. This means prepare to lose more of your freedoms.

People don’t want war but our leaders and “diplomats” seem to steer us into them, but they themselves are steered. This world is like a cock fight arranged by faceless ones sitting on the bleachers in the shadows being entertained. Division everywhere with an abundance of seemingly unsolvable issues (and distractions) like gay marriage, pro-life vs right to choose, Israel vs Palestine, liberal vs conservative, Christianity vs Islam, the war on this, the war on that, war on these people, war on those people.

Indeed it looks very dark ahead. And I would guess there’s a much darker reality and future for mankind than even those holding high positions in government suspect. Maybe it is time for those of us inclined to direct our focus more into our spiritual comfort and health rather than square footage and portfolios. The way things are going this will pay off much more than spending all our energy chasing the buck in a world unraveling more by the minute.

#54 not asian on 05.13.11 at 2:43 am

6925 Waverley Ave in Burnaby BC – listing price $989,000/selling price $1,500,000 (sold in 8 days sold on May 5th)
7357 Waverley Ave in Burnaby BC – listing price $918,000/selling price $1,238,000 (sold in 6 days on April 12th)
Both homes are old timers.
The Asians are now buying Burnaby because the land is more “solid”. Richmond is passe. Burnaby BC is the new BPOE.

#55 TheBigLebowski on 05.13.11 at 2:51 am

#8 squidly77.

You are correct when you say all currencies will fluctuate wildly. But that is when you compare them to other currencies. When compared to gold which is constant, The 9 major currencies of the world have lost 20% of their value annually when compared to gold/silver. Don’t get wrapped up in what they are doing when compared to each other on the usdx, that is just noise. All currencies are going down verse gold. As for as taking profits, how can one call the top in gold when they have missed every call for the past 11 years in that bull market ? People have lost faith in currencies, thats what separates gold from commodities, its money, oil isn’t

#56 TheBigLebowski on 05.13.11 at 2:59 am

garth, if Barry Sottero and his gaggle of criminals and the Fed stop QE then the whole system collapses, simple as that. Collapse or inflate, they are in a box and those are the only two choices left to the den of thieves that wear $5,000 suits and pretend to have any morals at all.

#57 Cato on 05.13.11 at 3:20 am

Hope your right Garth and we see economic order return and things take their course without political meddling, I have my doubts. For the Fed to cease bond buying Bernanke needs treasury to stop overwhelming debt markets. We have an administration already talking about more housing bailouts and Fed board members talking need for additional stimulus. Too many political animals out for themselves and Obama is probably greatest of em all. This administration has more ties to wallstreet than any other in history. Austerity isn’t part of their gameplan – these guys are keynesians to the core.

I envision the Fed pulling back and continue to talk down the markets while politicians pay lip service to austerity. Problem with most tea partiers is they talk big but behind close doors rely on medicare, foodstamps or other various social programs from uncle sam. They rail against welfare for those in the inner city, but have no idea what austerity really means for them.

So we’ll drift until late summer. Cost of living increases start finally hitting home & growth starts slipping, confidence starts to seriously shake. Heading into fall americans start getting a brief taste of what austerity really means and realize they don’t like it. Suddenly any talk of austerity becomes un-american. Stage will be set for mother of all stimulus programs and US goes all-in. Obama drags out bin laden’s head, gooses economy with stimulus and has just enough momentum to carry the whitehouse for a second term. Then the real pain begins, because at that point we’re headed to currency crisis.

For Canada it means large federal & provincial deficits that trickle down to local gov’t which lose juicy transfer payments, combined with loss of development taxes & fees picture starts looking pretty bleak for many cities. Suddenly gov’t on all levels are talking tax hikes, unions are striking and every special interest group around country is showing up to protest cutbacks. Home values start slow descent, canadians get scared and political climate becomes downright nasty. Gov’t will blame investors, banks , speculators – everyone but themselves. Younger generation starts to seriously dislike boomers who are seen as the architects of their misery and this sows seeds for severe cutbacks when boomers enter golden years.

Real culprit for world’s misery is keynesianism. To bad it had to take financial ruin to finally prove Keynes very wrong and Hayek very right. http://youtu.be/GTQnarzmTOc

#58 Basil Fawlty on 05.13.11 at 4:48 am

Kurt “So tell me goldbugs (especially the more sophisticated ones), under what conditions does holding PM make more sense than holding a diversified portfolio of equities?” Gold is the only financial asset that is not simultaneously someone else’s liability. You can see right now that many nations are purchasing large quantities of gold as monetary reserves. They are not purchasing diversified portfolios of equities.
Squidly 77 “Look with your eyes wide open at what happened to Silver in just a few days, down over 30% just like that. All it took was a small rise in margin from 6% up to 8% to collapse and wipe out half or more of the investors.” Silver margins were raised five seperate times in a two week period for a total increase of 84%, which is a first in history for any commodity.

#59 Pr on 05.13.11 at 5:14 am

..A new Bloomberg survey of people who invest zillions for others found that 30% are bailing out of commodities..

Dont worry for the recent drop in value its just JP Morgan coverings their shorts, the value will climb up again. And one day those who made criminal act will be trial in a real court system and jail and the ones guilty of traitor will have the sentence associate with the crime…History repeat it self, very simple.

#60 Neo on 05.13.11 at 5:50 am

The bottom line is the Banking Family dynasties store their wealth in Gold. They know better than anyone else that fiat currencies created don’t build wealth.

PS – Gold is $1,514 last time I checked. Not exactly a collapse there. Down 3.8% from its all-time highs of just 2 weeks ago. Expect that 3.8% to be made up in the next 2 weeks.

I’d say the response of the metalheads to this post underscores the fragility of the situation. This is nit investing. It’s a cult. — Garth

#61 Herb on 05.13.11 at 6:32 am

Darn thaqt Turner – now it’s main stream:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/home-ownership-isnt-for-everyone/article1953871/singlepage/#articlecontent

For Mad Vlad, note the nice Machiavellian touch:

… the so-called wisdom of home ownership was actually a government strategy after the Second World War for preventing social unrest.

#62 Bob Copeland on 05.13.11 at 7:11 am

I wish I understood both sides of the gold argument. Almost 6 years ago I cashed out my IRA and 401K (I’m American), took the 10% penalty and bought Krugerrands at $429.00 US each. Today they are worth $1500.00 US each. If I wanted to cash them in now it would have been a great investment. If I wait for a possible total destruction of the dollar they should be worth more in any new currency. What am I missing? What don’t I understand?

You live your life in dollars, not Krrugerrands. What’s there to understand? — Garth

#63 Ben on 05.13.11 at 7:12 am

#11 John, re: socking $700k in a CDIC insured bank.

If you are married, you can deposit up to $400k at one bank. $100k in your account, $100k in your wife’s account, and $200,000 in a joint account. CDIC insures joint accounts separately.

May have to go to another bank to handle the other $300k.

Savings/chequing accounts and GIC’s with <5 year term are covered. http://www.cdic.ca

CIDC coverage is illusory. — Garth

#64 S.B. on 05.13.11 at 7:35 am

Speaking of “Communist Conservatives” we all subsidize the oil giants. Forced commune:

Jonathan Fahey, AP Energy Writer, On Thursday May 12, 2011, 3:40 pm EDT

NEW YORK (AP) — Motorists are paying nearly $4 for a gallon of gasoline as the oil industry reaps pre-tax profits that could hit $200 billion this year.

This makes another big number hard to take: $4.4 billion. That’s how much the industry saves every year through special tax breaks intended to promote domestic drilling.

President Barack Obama is increasing pressure on Congress to eliminate these tax breaks — including one that is nearly a century old — at a time of record budget deficits. The President and congressional Democrats say eliminating the tax breaks will also lower gas prices by making alternative energy sources more competitive.

Oil industry advocates, a group that includes most Republicans in Congress, argue just the opposite. They say oil companies reinvest tax breaks into exploration and production, which ultimately generates more tax dollars and increases the supply of oil. They say eliminating tax breaks will raise the cost of doing business and lead to higher gas prices.

Executives from the five biggest oil companies were asked about these tax breaks at a Senate finance committee meeting Thursday. Senate Democrats accused the oil companies of not paying their share to help the country emerge from economic hard times. Republicans derided the hearing as a dog-and-pony show staged to score political points with angry drivers.

The industry executives said eliminating the tax breaks would reduce investment in the U.S. Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson said the tax proposal “Would discourage future investment in energy projects in the United States and therefore undercut job creation and economic growth.” He said it would do nothing to reduce gasoline prices.

#65 MikeT on 05.13.11 at 7:49 am

These things make me shore up my money in cash, Garth. Just like those who invest zillions for others, and like I wrote here a couple of times before.
The market is now dominated by high frequency trading and the fact that a stock goes up does not mean the company is good or that it’s expected to be profitable in the future – you know, the good ol’ assumptions.

Cash, of course, does not mean ‘cash.’ — Garth

#66 PM vs Equity on 05.13.11 at 7:49 am

Someone asked under what conditions does holding PM make more sense than holding a diversified portfolio of equities?

I think ALL Canadian equities are going to get slaughtered this year. Why?

1) raw materials have increased by 10% in the first quarter of this year. Earning suprise comming for many companies.

2) Exchange profit will now become an exchange loss.

3) Higher commoditiry prices don’t equate to higher prices for mining companies. Rising energy costs and exchange are more of a drag than rising commoditiy prices are a lift.

4) Party is over for the TMX for a while. People have made incredible profits during the last rally and now want to lock in.

I can see many companies that were making a profit will suddenly find themselves in a loss. This is especially true for manufacturers and those that depend on exchange or fuel cost. In the mining sector, record production will also mean record production costs for many companies. Don’t forget higher PM prices are a result of exchange and energy costs more so than demand lately.

+10% raw material cost
+10% energy costs
+10% exchange loss
________________
massive earnings suprise

An absurd comment. Certain sectors are always more vulnerable than others, but many will retain their value and augment. Being an indexer is not the same as having a diversified portfolio. More importantly, equities need to be counterbalanced with fixed income which in many cases is negatively correlated. — Garth

#67 Nemesis on 05.13.11 at 7:53 am

“It’s a cult.” — Hon. GT

A tempting conclusion, GT… & certainly at the ‘fringes’ one might be forgiven for thinking so. However, that would be tantamount to writing off Christianity after spending a week or two with the KoranBurners of Florida.

Of course, what it really is… is the ‘Mother’ of all Keynesian Beauty Contests.

And if that is true – the operative question then becomes, “Has the BikiniParade concluded and is Bert Parks about to open the envelope and CrownTheWinner?”… or alternatively, “Will the winner be susbsequently disqualified for – ahem – artificially augmenting her ‘assets’?”

#68 Neo on 05.13.11 at 7:55 am

Neo wrote:

The bottom line is the Banking Family dynasties store their wealth in Gold. They know better than anyone else that fiat currencies created don’t build wealth.

PS – Gold is $1,514 last time I checked. Not exactly a collapse there. Down 3.8% from its all-time highs of just 2 weeks ago. Expect that 3.8% to be made up in the next 2 weeks.

Garth Wrote:

I’d say the response of the metalheads to this post underscores the fragility of the situation. This is nit investing. It’s a cult. — Garth

********************************************

Garth,

Your missing my point. I’m not referring to Gold as an investment but as a store of value. Namely, over time ALL fiat currencies lose value and return to their intrinsic value of zero. I’m not saying to sell all your assets and sit in Gold. But that ALL dollar denominated assets have risen greatly only in nominally since the 2009 bottom. In REAL terms they have gone up marginally.

Just because Global Financiers like the Rothschilds have devised a system where their fiat currency they created, which is worth nothing, can be exchanged for an asset of value doesn’t mean that dollar truely has value. If it did it wouldn’t have gone from $35/ounce in 1971 to $1,500 in 2011. That is what Gold is telling you. That the dollar is not a store of value.

It sure stores enough value to finance my life. — Garth

#69 Aussie Roy on 05.13.11 at 7:55 am

Aussie update – All is FINE

No wholesale drop in prices – OK?… LOL

http://www.theage.com.au/business/home-prices-to-avoid-a-wholesale-drop-anz-20110512-1ek8v.html

Finally, there its been said no problem with supply of homes on market, its, well, you see they are just too expensive.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/property/news/supply-fine-but-housing-overvalued/story-e6frefgc-1226055055835

Commonwealth Bank’s decision to aggressively grow its mortgage market share at the height of the financial crisis is starting to cause indigestion after it revealed an increase in the number of housing loans starting to turn bad.

http://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowing/rise-in-cba-bad-home-loans-20110512-1ejki.html#ixzz1MEcDiL9B

Rising stock on market – Check
Prices falling – Check
New home loans at all time low – Check
Auction clearance rates looking sick and falling – Check

Auction clearance rates at post GFC low.

http://www.myrp.com.au/showNews.do?id=468

#70 PM vs Equity on 05.13.11 at 7:57 am

Let me explain the stock market risk in two simple sentances. If equity prices were rising when they caught Osama the stock markets would begin to fall. If equity prices were falling when they caught Osama than the stock markets would begin to rally. Major news turns the markets irregardless of what direction they were before the news. Because you can’t predict the news you can’t predict the price of GOLD, Equities, or Fiat currency long term.

#71 SMOKING MAN on 05.13.11 at 8:01 am

Wisper , Not to loud……..Big Bro is watching… I have breaking news….

Hosni Harper is

OTTAWA (NEWS1130) – The Harper government has been monitoring political messages online, and even correcting what it considers misinformation. One local expert says the government is taking things too far.

http://www.news1130.com/news/national/article/58287–harper-government-monitoring-online-chats-about-politics

#72 Kris on 05.13.11 at 8:09 am

Man, where do you dig up these pictures?? Hilarious!

#73 eddy on 05.13.11 at 8:18 am

Fukushima analysis, the speaker implicates Her Royal Highness Queen Elizabeth II ( land holdings and mineral rights), and the bankers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Be0ow2Jjs9E

#74 Antonio on 05.13.11 at 8:36 am

Toronto mid month numbers out next week. Expect sales growth versus previous year, lower supply and higher prices.

#75 MikeT on 05.13.11 at 8:43 am

@53 Coho: the stuff about what British govt is doing is quite unbelievable. Can you provide a source for that, except for rumormillsnews?
Thanks.

#76 MikeT on 05.13.11 at 8:45 am

Cash, of course, does not mean ‘cash.’ — Garth

Right. Should’ve said money market secs.

#77 BrianT on 05.13.11 at 8:50 am

You gotta laugh at this absurd B/S they pump out-inflation at 1.3%. The reality is that any American family with an income of $80000 yearly who has to pay health insurance is flat broke. This is after literally years of very low CPI numbers-what a joke http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Consumer-prices-rise-on-food-rb-2078554767.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

#78 stealth on 05.13.11 at 8:59 am

Garth, can you expand a bit more on:
“CIDC coverage is illusory. — Garth”

#79 PM vs Equities on 05.13.11 at 9:05 am

+10% raw material cost. Commodity prices are based in USA dollars. Doesn’t matter wether you buy paper, plastics, PM or lead the cost are all rising much higher than core inflation.

+energy cost. Record prices at the pumps in Toronto, record prices for diesel to mine in California, and record prices for hydro in Chile to produce copper or silver.

+exchange loss. We live in a global economy. Loonie has appreciated from 0.95 to 1.05 quickly which is roughly 10%.

The Canadian President of GM Canada pretty much said the same thing in a news release this week.

With the Canadian dollar being at record highs we are really in uncharted teritory. No one knows for certain what impact this will have on the economy. One thing is for certain and that is Bernake is betting the farm on moving jobs back to the USA.

#80 Ron Cameron on 05.13.11 at 9:33 am

http://enenews.com/nilu-ends-public-forecasts-map-show-large-radiation-clouds-canada-videos

#81 Daisy Mae on 05.13.11 at 9:58 am

“Cash, of course, does not mean ‘cash.’ — Garth”

What DOES it mean? I apologize for being so dense. LOL

#82 Alex on 05.13.11 at 10:10 am

CIDC coverage is illusory. — Garth
——————————————
Please explain why?

The government is incapable of bailing out depositors if any of the Big Six went bust. This is meaningless soma for the masses. — Garth

#83 Basil Fawlty on 05.13.11 at 10:13 am

“You live your life in dollars, not Krrugerrands. What’s there to understand? — Garth”
Quantitative Easing and the quadrillion dollar OTC Derivative market, that is growing daily.
“This is nit investing. It’s a cult. — Garth”
Tell that to Eric Sprott, John Embry and Jimmie Rodgers.

#84 disciple on 05.13.11 at 10:22 am

The history of fiat money shows that all fiat currencies end, and usually not well.

This is only because people are tricked into allowing a third party called a bank to create debt out of thin air. There can never be a true market economy with buyers and sellers if there is a third party bank that can create the money supply. In standard economic textbooks, this third role is downplayed or ignored because as Henry Ford whispered, “we cannot let them understand the financial system or they will be free” – I’m paraphrasing.

#85 TheBigLebowski on 05.13.11 at 10:25 am

Robin Griffiths of Cazenove. Cazenove is one of the oldest financial firms on the planet and is widely believed to be the appointed stockbroker to Her Majesty The Queen. He states, “Silver Could Eclipse $450, Gold $12,000”. Besides being an inbred Goblin, what metal head cult does the queen belong to garth? Or does she maybe know something you don’t ?

#86 disciple on 05.13.11 at 10:25 am

To continue with my previous post…most people in-the-know like the G-man understand this but the average Joe six-pack does not. You are like vultures, never really helping out your fellow man because you think that would prevent you from getting your “8% profit”. Profits are meaningless and shallow and self-serving and ultimately destructive. Be makers, not takers.

#87 vreaa on 05.13.11 at 10:28 am

“I have lived in Vancouver my whole life, my wife and I are mid career professionals (university profs) … We are actively looking to sell out and escape to either Alberta or Montreal…. There is no future in Vancouver for the next generation (unless one is off-the-scale rich)…”

Anecdote, and poster’s opinion about the downside of trying to be a “world class city”…

http://wp.me/pcq1o-2gi

#88 disciple on 05.13.11 at 10:30 am

Gold is not a store of wealth, neither is debt fiat. Banks do not care about anything except taxing your labour and productivity via their “gov’t”, er, I mean your “gov’t”. Let’s look at etymology: govern – control , ment- mind. Government = Mind control. That’s what it’s all about, continuing the illusion that money in any form is wealth. It is not.

#89 TheBigLebowski on 05.13.11 at 10:39 am

here is a link to an interesting picture who think metals head are off their rocker.
https://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/naNYHQ-HwyBGHY1tlPvt5A?feat=embedwebsite

#90 eltabarnacos on 05.13.11 at 10:42 am

If I get it correct, Garth is warning of a real estate bubble like 2008’S US which came with a stock market crash but is not warning of a stock market crash?

So get diversified (so no PM, it is for speculating metalheads) to make sure your equities crash with the real estate in 2011!?

#91 ontheshoreline on 05.13.11 at 10:52 am

Garth…what’s your definition of cash?

#92 kilby on 05.13.11 at 10:53 am

In yesterdays blog I mentioned the North Vancouver waterfront condo that was a pre sale in 2007 that has not been lived in being for sale at a $75K loss. Last night the realtor showed up with movers to “de stage” as it is coming off the market and will be rented…..no interest.

#93 john on 05.13.11 at 10:54 am

Hi Garth,

Why is CDIC insurance an illusion. What are better alternatives, 1 year, safe?

#94 eltabarnacos on 05.13.11 at 10:55 am

Kurt “So tell me goldbugs (especially the more sophisticated ones), under what conditions does holding PM make more sense than holding a diversified portfolio of equities?”

This time is different from the Hunts time, the demand is worldwide and we are now a big 7 billion people, if only 10% of them are metalheads then do the math.
The CME ‘s margins are high which means next hikes would crash the price for a cuple days but the come back will someday break through paper spot price because of high demand. Heck even states and countries are starting to legalize the use of gold and silver as currency, Utah, South Carolina, Greece, Lybia.

In Zimbabwe after the currency crash guess whats the ONLY thing worth somethin to buy food?
Your portfolio in zimbabwe money is worth 0 since its converted to zimbabwe currency money, hence the advantage of have REAL PHYSICAL pms.

#95 squidly77 on 05.13.11 at 10:59 am

Metals gambling = Forex gambling

So when the CAD retreats back to $0.90 USD (it will) and if Silver still has a spot price of $35 USD/oz would you not have lost 16% of your gamble ?

Or what about if things return back to their historical values and the CAD falls to $0.70 USD ?

Metals, Oil, domestic currency valuations or home prices are like blood pressure, their values go up and down, when they get exceedingly high, treatment is required – higher margins.

Higher margins actually protect the amateur investor.

Would anyone here not like to see the government raise the downpayment (margin) required to purchase a home rise to 25% so that prices would fall ?

Bitching about not wanting to have skin in the game is no different than a realtor snorting and screaming for $0 down homes.

#96 disciple on 05.13.11 at 11:03 am

I am not religious. I am not a communist. I am not a capitalist. I am neither left nor right. I am not a label. And neither are you. Stop taking sides in a rigged game. Fools! I await banishment for being off-topic…but seriously, how can you continue to argue over meaningless semantics. Your mind-controllers will screw you either way, btw how do you prefer to be screwed this time? Asset deflation or commodity inflation? How about both? You’ve got it! Stay liquid, that’s what the banks do.

#97 disciple on 05.13.11 at 11:13 am

A crash of biblical proportions is on its way straight from hell to your front door. Let’s go camping and get used to it now…50% off tents at Crappy Tire this week.
When banks “lend” money, they simply create it into the money supply, they do not suffer a loss of those funds, so they essentially do not care whether you ever pay it back, they only care about getting that interest payment…fools! And then it is such a huge surprise that the middle class is being wiped out? Are you kidding me?

#98 westopia on 05.13.11 at 11:25 am

@ #62 Bob Copeland

“If I wait for a possible total destruction of the dollar they should be worth more in any new currency. What am I missing? What don’t I understand?

You live your life in dollars, not Krrugerrands. What’s there to understand? — Garth”

You’re not missing anything. You live your life in dollars, not preferred shares and corporate bonds. What’s there to understand?

#99 Regina Update on 05.13.11 at 11:25 am

Update as of May 3, 2011:
Sales down 9% from 2010, marking the third consecutive month of decreasing sales.

Average price up 5%.

Overall sales dollar value down 5% from last year.

Listings are up from march.

Homes selling for 95.7% of asking price.

Quote from Gord Archibald, Executive Officer of the Associaiton of Regina Realtors Inc.
“There is also a pattern of more higher priced homes selling so far this year and fewer lower priced homes. This is causing the average price to increase.”

Source: http://www.reginarealtors.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&layout=blog&id=11&Itemid=11

Looks like Garth has been pretty spot on with his assessment of the market.

But don’t worry there are still good deals: http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10653180&PidKey=-170340493

Description: “Good family neighbourhood.” Obviously they do not subscribe to MacLean’s: http://www.macleans.ca/article.jsp?content=20070115_139375_139375

#100 Rocket Boy on 05.13.11 at 11:30 am

A reversal in just weeks ? …. 3 weeks ago I posted how 3 homes on my court listed, 2 sold within a few short weeks while the third (which was grossly over-valued) sat until just recently the sign came down.

No problems here I qouted on the blog – yesterday, my boss was telling me why were so many houses hitting the market in such short order – and those in her hood have been gathering dust –

Maybe Garth is onto something (just kidding G-Man) maybe most Canadians are starting to realize that if they hold off purchasing they may save a few grand by holding for a month or two ….

Garth, great site – and I’d like to thank the A-hole yesterday for calling me a Con-Communist …WTF ? … its a good thing you can’t say that to my face – you would be drinking out of your butt hole right now!

#101 realpaul on 05.13.11 at 11:52 am

Inflation is rip roaring in Canada, UK, USA ans Asia….but the people at the top want to keep the ZIRP….whos benefits? Follow the money.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/inflation+hits+highest+level+more+than+years/4779106/story.html

#102 Chaos on 05.13.11 at 11:56 am

Vlad, thanks for reminding me to check the royal union chart.

this wedding has taken place under a very powerful sky.

By that I mean that this partnership is very revolutionary at it’s heart and has been consecrated at a moment during which the individual will have much personal power.

With Leo rising and the ruler in the 10th house, this wedding is very definitely about the royal business.

Kate is now firmly employed in a service and is portable, and by the way is okay with that, because she is a Capricorn and very practical and also ambitious.

Their actual home will always be provided by someone else.

The first child is likely to be a Capricorn male.

The partnership is political, friendly, electric and sometimes unusual. Also there is a quality of the fantastic represented by Neptune in the seventh.

The amount of gifts that these two will receive by way of inheritance is absolutely staggering.

The number of planets in the 8/9th houses points to a large effort to procreate. (big family)

With the Sun in Taurus in 10th house of business, make no mistake, this a very value conscious, practical business effort at it’s heart with a very large splash of flamboyance. IT’S SHOWTIME!

With all of those planets in Aries including Uranus the ruler of revolution in the combined house of knowledge(9th) and power(8th) the Royal Hierarchy is being overthrown from the inside by a commoner.

Oh man…the irony. What the little people have been trying to do for eons is now almost a reality.
The Monarchy is taken down by Kate. Long live the revolution.

Well, that how I see it on this side of the moon.

Pardon me…this a R/E blog.
With sun Sun in the 4th house and in opposition to Pluto in the 10th, look for a definite sign on the direction of R/E starting June 22 2011.

#103 John on 05.13.11 at 11:59 am

Up for renewal. Should I fix or float? Where will BoC prime be at end of 2012?

#104 S-J on 05.13.11 at 12:01 pm

#13 Ron

It seems the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) has stopped monitoring Fukushima.

http://transport.nilu.no/products/fukushima

#105 jess on 05.13.11 at 12:06 pm

There is a systematic relationship between business investment and productivity growth over the long run. Productivity growth follows business investment with a lag of almost two decades. Figure 1 shows this long-run relationship between investment and productivity growth in the U.S. economy…

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/05/productivity_snapshot.html

#106 John on 05.13.11 at 12:11 pm

“In the US the Fed will stop throwing endless billions into buying bonds (leading to higher interest rates) ”

You are saying fixed rate mortgage interest rates in the states will increase due to a sudden lack of demand for the bonds? What about in Canada? A rush out of equities and into bonds should push fixed rates down, no?

#107 Ron Cameron on 05.13.11 at 12:39 pm

Go to this site and click on the videos. They show the forecasts. It should scare the hell out of you. The US and Japan seem to have been able to force a stoppage in these public forecasts. It seems to me we have a right to know what is happening. There are still ethical people in the nuclear field who believe the same thing and they are leaking the information. I live in the path of the radiation and try to get as much information as possible.

There is a very subtle approach to defusing the situation right now. Tepco with the help of the Japanese government has announced they are reaching settlement claims with people who were forced to evacuate. Normally claims are settled when an event is over. But the nuclear disaster at Fukushima is getting worse by the day and is far from over.

http://enenews.com/nilu-ends-public-forecasts-map-show-large-radiation-clouds-canada-videos

#108 The InvestorsFriend on 05.13.11 at 12:39 pm

disciple at 84 worries about banks creating money from thin air.

Diciple and others worried about this, try the following experiment.

Go to your bank and open a $100k line of credit. wait two weeks. Guess how much money was created? None. Money is counted as cash the bank has plus deposit accounts.

Now go in and write a $100 k check on the line of credit and deposit that money into a savings account.

$100 k in new deposits and $100 k new money was just created.

Who created it? Was it the bank or you? You wrote the cheque.

How much did your wealth change when you wrote the check? None.

How much has the bank’s wealth changed? none.

The money supply has increased but real wealth remains unchanged.

If the price of money was the size of the money supply compared to wealth then your action should cause inflation. But it will not.

In fact the price of dollar money is derermined by the amount of wealth denominated in dollars not by the amount of dollars in bank acounts.

Anyhow it is not just the banks that create money from thin air. It is banks acting with their customers. It has been going on for centuries and guess what? Our standard of living has soared all the while.

Stop your fears and go on out and get rich. Go now. right now. Why are you still reading? I said go NOW!

#109 BPOE on 05.13.11 at 12:52 pm

Put that in your pipe and smoke it American. Obviously you are high with your 40% price reduction diatribe
——————————————-
6925 Waverley Ave in Burnaby BC – listing price $989,000/selling price $1,500,000 (sold in 8 days sold on May 5th)
7357 Waverley Ave in Burnaby BC – listing price $918,000/selling price $1,238,000 (sold in 6 days on April 12th)
Both homes are old timers.

#110 BPOE on 05.13.11 at 12:55 pm

Lots of room down in the Seattle area for the non -players. Greatest place on earth folks. Going higher everyday and getting better everyday.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
.#87 vreaa on 05.13.11 at 10:28 am
“I have lived in Vancouver my whole life, my wife and I are mid career professionals (university profs) … We are actively looking to sell out and escape to either Alberta or Montreal…. There is no future in Vancouver for the next generation (unless one is off-the-scale rich)…”

#111 Boom Boom Bust on 05.13.11 at 1:15 pm

#108 The moment the bank loans you $100 they have created money. Banks have a reserve ratio. This is the amount of money they must keep relative to that which they loan out.

If the bank reserve ratio was 10%.

1000 deposit=100 reserved & 900 loaned out
900 deposit= 90 reserved & 790 loaned out
790 deposit = 79 reserved & 711 loaned out

This continues on and on until the amount available to be loaned out is 0. By raising the reserve ratio you shrink the money supply and by lowering the ratio you increase the money supply. Has a similar impact to raising and lowering interest rates. As you have probably heard China has raised its reserve ratio 5 times this year.

#112 A free Canada just a dream? on 05.13.11 at 1:15 pm

It’s a 100% fact most Communist Conservatives cannot handle the truth. How else could people with NO MONEY buy a house they could NEVER afford in the FREE MARKET? The Communist Conservatives wanted to provide for every Canadian and created the(Communist HMC) . Now the Communist Conservatives have created a Communist problem in what once was a free market country. I love free markets and democracy but my fellow card carrying Communist Conservative do not.

#113 disciple on 05.13.11 at 1:17 pm

#108 “InvestorsFriend” – Who said I was worried? I’m not. I am simply stating facts, but don’t let those get in the way of your “ethics”. Labour is the fabric of society and technology is the advancement of the human race, not profits. Banks have indeed accumulated great illusory wealth both fiat and commodity. But their real power stems from the illusion of creating “money” out of thin air through debt, and this is the cause of all of the world’s problems. Your standard of living has been on the backs of the billions of global poor, but your controllers do not educate you on this aspect. There is more than enough for everybody and then some. But the name of the game is control. You achieve this devilish aim through subsidized inequality. Might is right, no? Barbaric apes…!

#114 BrianT on 05.13.11 at 1:23 pm

#108Inv-Why are you not posting your pearls of wisdom on your Facebook page? You can include your dating tips.

#115 not asian on 05.13.11 at 1:24 pm

My spouse and I both make good money. We rent for wayyyy below market price. But after our basic expenses, we find that we don’t feel rich. We eat out once a week, gas, rent, clothes, sports, lessons, etc. we get by. Yet other families go to hawaii during Christmas, their primary kids have $100 in their pockets, they go to every Justin Bieber concert, and wear designer jewelry and clothes, they have new vehicles, luxury everything, and $150K renos. Are they all growing Marajuana in their basements? Or is everyone living off credit? I live in a neighborhood where 10 years ago these houses were worth under $200K. Now everyone is worth over $1m. I need a return to normal please. I cannot keep up with the Joneses. They are so far ahead that I can’t even see the Joneses anymore. I feel like I’m in the twilight zone.

#116 disciple on 05.13.11 at 1:29 pm

When your elected members allow the private banking families to continue to create wealth out of thin air to “lend” it to their friends cheaply and then it gets “lent” to the rest of us cattle at inflated prices, this is the farce that is not affected by politics, or even the market. Why does a banker care what the P/E of a stock is? Or what the July futures quote for silver is? His mafia family of shadow corporations “makes money” (gains more control) no matter what happens. You are floundering about in a rigged game, that these people play when they’re bored. Our children will hopefully not play this game of money-chasing anymore and move on to better things.

#117 A free Canada just a dream? on 05.13.11 at 1:32 pm

Rocket Boy #100

Garth, great site – and I’d like to thank the A-hole yesterday for calling me a Con-Communist …WTF ? … its a good thing you can’t say that to my face – you would be drinking out of your butt hole right now
———————————————————

Once again you card carrying Communist Conservatives(CC) hate democracy and freedom of speech? You CC like to pretend you are all about freedom and democracy but your actions tell another story. Thanks for proving my point CC. Everyone needs to spread the word about the CC. thank-you and long live democracy and freedom of speech. I love a free Canada. Some do not.

#118 BrianT on 05.13.11 at 1:35 pm

#79PM-How is it possible that after everything that has happened any human being could conclude that Ben Bernanke is working to restore USA employment? Ben Bernanke did not sign up to slave away for Joe Sixpack in some sort of charity gig.

#119 disciple on 05.13.11 at 1:41 pm

Please, I implore you to bear with me for a couple more posts. This is an exploration of my own transformation from money-accumulator to something new, something I cannot yet describe, but it is beginning to look beautiful. It’s a green monolith moment for me at this time. Feel free to share in it. I see a future where everything is free and there is no more “money” per se, except as a medium of exchange. It is far, far, far from that now….You can’t eat gold. You can’t eat paper money. You can eat some commodities. You can use fuels. Silver is very useful to industry, gold, not so much. When nothing has a price anymore, value becomes attached to utility, the only true and virtuous function of anything. The predator class does not want you to ever think on these things…no, they will literally crucify you if they have to…

#120 disciple on 05.13.11 at 1:56 pm

“In fact the price of dollar money is derermined by the amount of wealth denominated in dollars not by the amount of dollars in bank acounts.”

I’m sorry, the above is so ridiculous that I just had to point it out, I won’t explain further and let the readers figure it out. Ask yourselves, “What determines the price of a dollar”? Eventually you will realize that is a non-sensical question. Only 3% of the money supply is in physical cash, btw. The rest is smoke and mirrors.

#121 Devore on 05.13.11 at 1:59 pm

#95 squidly77

So when the CAD retreats back to $0.90 USD (it will) and if Silver still has a spot price of $35 USD/oz would you not have lost 16% of your gamble ?

That works in the other direction. Just though I’d point that out.

If CDN dollar goes down against the USD, any assets you hold that are denominated in USD will appreciate by the same amount. In Canada, we use CDN. That’s why it’s a great time to buy USD assets, when CDN is strong against it, if you believe CDN will go down.

#122 kilby on 05.13.11 at 2:02 pm

Went to my bank today and was needing some information from the side counter. The guy in front of me was wondering if his 3 mortgages and line of credit were OK, not in arrears. The bank employee said that it looked alright, all debts satisfied. The guy then says “Is there enough to take a thousand out for a holiday?” Banker replies that there is still room on his line of credit for that and says that if he wants, he can see his statements on line…The guy replies “I’m not very good with money, I just throw 5 grand in a month and hope it covers everything” But, he is off to Mexico for a couple of weeks holiday. I hear about people being hopelessly in debt on this blog and on the news every day but this is the first time it struck home that if there are a lot of people around like this guy…..We are in a lot of trouble. This is Vancouver….

#123 disciple on 05.13.11 at 2:06 pm

“Money is counted as cash the bank has plus deposit accounts.”

Again, here is where you need some education. The above is categorically false. Look up “fractional reserve banking system” to get started. Your mortgage (mort=death, gage=instrument) is supposed to be a liability for the bank, but voila! it becomes an asset on the bank’s statements especially when packaged into a Mortgage-Backed Derivative (sound familiar?) The absurdity of a liability also being an asset is the carte blanche signature of insanity and for me, aptly defines this whole charade to which we are held hostage.

Someone please let me know where and when you are taught this in school. Any bank economists out there?

#124 Soylent Green is People on 05.13.11 at 2:09 pm

Jesus, what a snore fest.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

#125 Blacksheep on 05.13.11 at 2:15 pm

Garth,
Probably should not have opened the “Commodities” can -o- worms.

You are/ have been correct on so many things, But your precious metals views are your KRYPTONITE.

No matter how you try to defend your position, you just get your ass handed back repeatedly, with your weak reasoning and name calling.

Face it dude, your call is was wrong and has been for years.

Sorry, but some one had to say it.

If this comment never sees daylight, I understand.

ps: Save the Superman comeback, it just fit well.

take care
Blacksheep

Sigh. I’ll say it again. A position in PM is just fine, and I have advocated it in my last three books. Being overweight in precious metals is unwise. Those who have made cap gains should systematically harvest them. I sure am. — Garth

#126 disciple on 05.13.11 at 2:16 pm

Budget deficits arise from borrowing imaginary money from bankers. There is no good reason to do this, but there are many evil reasons. When you realize that there is no reason to have deficits, and then no reason to have deficit-critics, then there is no reason to have CON-servatives. Well, good. They can take with them the liberals and the left as well. Good riddance.

#127 disciple on 05.13.11 at 2:42 pm

Sorry, I got nothin’ to do today. I’m just picking out random posts for comment…here goes…
“Something only has value if there is demand for it, whether its fiat money, gold, homes, stocks, bonds, oil, etc. The supply/demand balance will determine the price. Gold has always had value because there has always been some level of demand for it. Because gold has special properties that make it a good store of value and desirable to own.”

Demand is artificially created usually at the end of a gun. And with currency, supply is artificially created. You are forced to use the currency to survive. Gold has no special properties, it is an illusion. You are playing by stupid rules, time to change them, where is that Jesus guy?

#128 Cato on 05.13.11 at 3:02 pm

#7 Kurt – your theory is sound, infact so were Keynes’ – I think the failure we are starting to see emerge isn’t really a failure in economic theory but failure in policy. Thats the critical miscalculation many investors & economists are making, idea that markets will always equilibrate and the excess eventually ends up in assets & equities – therefore anyone holding equities long term will always come out ahead.

Problem is economies are far to complex to centrally plan, and centralized planning is too rife with political interference and corruption. Either through ignorance, or deceit those who hold political office are tampering with money supply, doing what is politically expedient and not what is economically prudent. So in times like these gold is not just a store of value, its an insurance policy against fiat crisis. This is the motivation behind central banks around the world accumulating gold.

As we get closer to the brink I accumulate more gold. I will adjust holdings according to risk factors leading to potential crisis. As risk increases, I buy more insurance. Its my view we still have time to go before crisis and that the US in particular has one more roll of the dice. Those in power will eventually go all in under guise that previous stimulus was not enough and larger stimulus is needed to prevent western economies from slipping into depression. It buys another term in office, if it works they go down in history as heroes – but its a big gamble and if it fails we end up in fiat crisis. During that time equity markets will surge again, so might as well prepare to go along for the ride. Its all about timing and I’d be betting stimulus intervention will be carefully timed on an election timetable.

Its the aftermath we need to prepare for. A currency crisis in any major currency will cause credit markets to freeze up, and equity markets will come crashing down hard. At that time gold window will be re-opened and central banks will hobble along using gold reserves to backstop foreign holdings while world sits down for another bretton woods and hammers out agreement on new world currency. At that point, when world seems to be ending I’ll be quietly dumping gold and buying equities hand over fist.

#129 Tony on 05.13.11 at 3:13 pm

For two years there was *no* appetite for commodities. The whole thing was a manipulation job by the big banks and the hedge funds. Pump and dump never gets old. The world is still deflating any lunkhead can figure out when they unload these commodities the bottom will be quite a lot lower the the public thinks since there was no demand in the first place. The last shoe to drop will be the stock market in a 90 percent type NASDAQ crash to rival all the previous crashes. The feeble public doesn’t have the ability to reason things out in the first place and always pick up the tab for the big banks and hedge funds.

#130 squidly77 on 05.13.11 at 3:16 pm

Devore #110

#95 squidly77

So when the CAD retreats back to $0.90 USD (it will) and if Silver still has a spot price of $35 USD/oz would you not have lost 16% of your gamble ?

That works in the other direction. Just though I’d point that out.

Exactly, now question #2 how many Americans will dump their spec positions on commodities if the USD shoots up in value.

For folks south of the boarder Gold in USD has been a great place to preserve ones wealth.

#131 Blacksheep on 05.13.11 at 3:19 pm

Garth’s response to #113,

I’m impressed, very restrained and fair, we will turn you into a Bullion Bunny Yet.
You already have the bunker!

Have a good weekend,
Blacksheep

#132 Mr. Reality on 05.13.11 at 3:19 pm

Short the markets folks…….short the markets.

Mr. R.

#133 The InvestorsFriend on 05.13.11 at 3:37 pm

111 BoomBoom said 108: The moment the bank loans you $100 they have created money.

Yes, just as I said in 108, when you open a line of credit no money is created. When you take out a loan and have it deposited in the bank you and the bank have created money.

Disciple. Yes your mortage liablility is an asset of the bank.

Anyone who thinks that banking has been bad for our standards of living is beyond help. Financially illiterate.

And no the poor people in Africa are not helping our standard of living. All human ingenuity from the dawn of farming to the invention of the ipad helps our standard of living.

We live a grand and glorious life. Be thankful. The Chinese are joining us. Good for them.

The best time in history to be born was today. Tomorrow will be even better. It has ever been so and ever will be so. We stand on the shoulders of past generations.

#134 disciple on 05.13.11 at 3:47 pm

#128 Cato…
I guess you’ve never seen that Twilight Zone episode where the cryogenic astronauts thaw out and find themselves in the future and try to buy a ride out of the desert with gold bars, and the passersby throw the gold back at them and laugh. The “brink” of what? What will your $10,000 gold buy you when people need water instead of jewelry? Oops, should have stocked up on waterfalls and lakes. Would it surprise you that the elite have already done that. “Greenbelts” around the world are fronts for theft of valuable land.

#135 BPOE Evil Twin on 05.13.11 at 4:01 pm

Bumper Sticker

Mall Wart
Your Best Source of Cheap Plastic Crap

#136 disciple on 05.13.11 at 4:04 pm

Economically prudent…hmmm…that’s a good one…prudent for whom? As long as you get yours, all is well in the world, right? We should watch our cliche usage, it betrays our ignorance.

#137 disciple on 05.13.11 at 4:08 pm

The motivation of central banks around the world accumulating gold is to convince you to do the same. It’s a mind game. C R A S H , let’s say it together, ready…be a contrarian, stay liquid like water, move with the rhythm of life, hey, I could sell vacations to Cooba!

#138 BPOE on 05.13.11 at 4:25 pm

Renting HURTS. It hurts you and it hurts your family. It hurts you future generations. Stop being a taker and start being a giver.
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
My spouse and I both make good money. We rent for wayyyy below market price. But after our basic expenses, we find that we don’t feel rich. We eat out once a week, gas, rent, clothes, sports, lessons, etc. we get by. Yet other families go to hawaii during Christmas, their primary kids have $100 in their pockets, they go to every Justin Bieber concert, and wear designer jewelry and clothes, they have new vehicles, luxury everything, and $150K renos. Are they all growing Marajuana in their basements? Or is everyone living off credit? I live in a neighborhood where 10 years ago these houses were worth under $200K. Now everyone is worth over $1m. I need a return to normal please. I cannot keep up with the Joneses. They are so far ahead that I can’t even see the Joneses anymore. I feel like I’m in the twilight zone.

#139 Gretzky4Life on 05.13.11 at 4:30 pm

Garth,

Father in-law is considering buying in France. Either an apartment in Paris or Nice. What is the state of the French market? Are they heading for a real-estate correction along with Canada?

#140 realpaul on 05.13.11 at 4:36 pm

Oh, how swift the river of political justice flows. It appears that another two rats are abandoning the ship of lost hope as the Liberal’s sink into obscurity and a political netherworld.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2011/05/13/scoc-resignations-051311.html

Just last week..three CBC ‘attack dogs’ who hounded and spewed hatred of everything conservative for the past five years have been dumped. Whats up? Is this as Obama recently said regarding the death of an enemy of his state…’Justice being done’.

These Liberal appointed justices have wrought fury against the Canadian state for decades. The tyranny of the criminal is soon over…..huzzah!! The dictatorship of Liberal socialism is over….three cheers. The despotic bullies of the leftist idealogues and pontificating elite are getting the boot. May they rot in hell for the carnage they’ve left behind.

#141 DM in C on 05.13.11 at 4:46 pm

15 posts from disciple over a couple of hours — looks like we have another DA on our hands.

Or DA is back with a new handle and new drum to beat.

Garth, ever thought about including Like/Dislike counters on the posts? That way we can sort by most/least popular and filter out the chaff….. some of the news sites have that functionality, and shouldn’t take much tinkering on the back end.

#142 Industrial Guy on 05.13.11 at 4:55 pm

The wise biker from the Halton Hills is right!!! “In Canada, stuff matters. Oil. Copper. Trees. Fertilizer. Uranium. Commodities.” Something else matters …. the cost to get that stuff out of the ground and to the World markets which want to buy it. We lost the benefits of our unofficial manufacturing subsidy when the Canadian dollar passed 90 cents U.S. Without that exchange difference, we’re an expensive supplier.

The Vale (INCO) strike in Sudbury last year and the U.S. Steel lock outs in Nanticoke and Hamilton are all about the new economic reality in Canada.. The new foreign buyers of these companies will not accept our wage rates and general inefficiency when compared to their international holdings. In the case of US Steel, they seem to be willing to close these steel mills and wait till the union members starve over salary and workplace rule changes.

It didn’t help Canada when our own mining companies moved their investments out of our country to low wage countries. A small number of Canadian machine builders have supplied equipment to these new mining operation, but in the end it’s Canadian jobs being exported to low wage countries again.

These days board and pulp mills run on Government hand outs. Some mills subsidize their operational costs by generating electricity for the local power grid. The popularity of iPads and Galaxy tabs will eventually kill the book manufacturing, newspaper and magazine printing industries. What’s left of the board mills and engineered wood products industry will be eviscerated after the real estate market in Canada crashes or corrects.

I guess we are forever cursed to be “Hewers of Wood, Drawers of Water”.

#143 Junius on 05.13.11 at 5:05 pm

#140 realpaul,

Your post is absolutely foolish. It shows was a narrow minded polemic you really are.

Neither of these judges are particularly Liberal. Binnie was a partner at McCarthy Tetrault which is the largest law firm in the country and hardly a bastion of social liberalism.

Yes, let’s bring on the Fascist state you so desire.

Nutcase.

#144 Junius on 05.13.11 at 5:09 pm

#139 Gretzky4Life,

France did not have the same sub prime mortgage crap that has plagued UK, Ireland and Spain so there market is much more stable.

Prices are high in Paris as it is comparable (but slightly cheaper) to the other great world cities such as London (note this does not include Toronto or Vancouver).

Nice is cheaper than Paris but still pretty expensive. Although it much better than Vancouver and Toronto.

If he wants a deal tell him to look West of Marseille closer to the Spanish border.

#145 poco on 05.13.11 at 5:11 pm

#134 disciple
I guess you’ve never seen that Twilight Zone episode where the cryogenic astronauts thaw out and find themselves in the future and try to buy a ride out of the desert with gold bars, and the passersby throw the gold back at them and laugh.
______________________________________________
not that it matters much, but as i recall that episode, the cryogenic astronauts were actually a “gang of thieves” who robbed a bank or mint and locked themselves away in a cave in the desert somewhere for X number of years.
they were cryogenically frozen in individual glass “coffins as i recall and when they woke up a rock had fallen from the ceiling of the cave and smashed one of the coffins–skeletal remains– and yes –gold was useless
come on –someone must know more of that episode

sorry for this but i was just sick of reading about gold and PM
off to check my e-mails to see how the tri-cities market is doing today–so far this week another40 owners approaching underwater mark–you know–listing within about 15k of what they paid 2 and 3 years ago–not looking pretty around here

#146 Junius on 05.13.11 at 5:12 pm

#138 BPOE,

You said, “Renting HURTS. It hurts you and it hurts your family. It hurts you future generations.”

You know what really hurts? Fraudulent hucksters like yourself who sell fear and greed. Apart from being wrong almost 100% of time you are clearly a desperate Con artist. Enough of your the fear mongering crap.

Get yourself to Richmond so you can sink with it when the earthquake hits.

#147 Junius on 05.13.11 at 5:23 pm

#112 A Free Canada Just a Dream,

You said, “Now the Communist Conservatives have created a Communist problem in what once was a free market country. I love free markets and democracy but my fellow card carrying Communist Conservative do not.”

Far be it from me to defend the Conservative’s housing policy but I don’t see how it is anything like communism. If they were communist they would have paid for the house and then let people live in it for free while keeping the ownership with the State.

The part you are missing is that the changes in CMHC policy were no gift. They were a debt trap that the a huge part of the population fell into. Havoc and horror are coming down the road.

However you did get one part dead on. There was nothing about free markets going on with what they did. Had they left the rules as they had been and left the rest up to the banks our market would have certainly fallen in 2008 when it started to dip and probably be going down still.

#148 Beharvioral Finance on 05.13.11 at 5:31 pm

Gold Bugs seem to forget the meltdown that Gold took in 1980s. The same thing will happen again, once big money is done with Gold.

#149 thinktwice on 05.13.11 at 5:38 pm

The USA debt is the largest the history of the world has ever known, more than the rest of the world combined, and the trend is not reversing yet. Why would it, because the man of sound honesty Bernanke told you so?

The USA spends more money that the rest of the world combined on war, spends roughly half its budget on war, and, the number of wars the USA is waging are increasing.

The Federal Reserve is now the single largest source of funding for war, with no collateral behind it. Printing paper money out of thin air to make stuff that is blown up is the single largest cause of price inflation the history of the world has even known.

The USA now borrows 40% of what it spends, every other nation in history that breached that point went up in flames in hyperinflation.

Global central banks are buying precious metals like they never have before in history. Gold already is the new reserve world currency. Read that again. Utah just passed a law making gold and silver money with a dozen other states close behind, other countries are in the process as well. Gaddafi tried.

Canada has no more than a pittance of gold in the government coffers.

You are speculating that spending and debt will reduce? That’s just fiction. Flooding damage in USA and Japan will be rebuilt by even more printing, 100’s of billions of printing.

Price of oil will go down? And you don’t make nary a mention of the Middle East? Maybe in the next few weeks or couple months with the recent margin increase shakeout, but the rage in the Middle East is worsening every day? Who told you sunshine and lollipops are on their way in the Middle East? If Saudi falls into revolution, expect $200 oil really quick.

So all that paper money you believe in Garth, take delivery in the smallest denominations possible because it’s all you will have left to put in the fireplace to keep warm in winters to come.

Who let these nutbars out? — Garth

#150 Beharvioral Finance on 05.13.11 at 5:40 pm

eltabarnacos,

I doubt people in Zimbabwe are using PMs to buy and sell goods. I would say they are more likely to barter. Anyway it is possible to dilute gold when its used as money as it has been done in the past.

#151 John on 05.13.11 at 5:45 pm

And it still stated a third of respondents think commodities will tank and another third are moving into cash, which is all I reported. Accurately. — Garth

———-

Hilarious, Garth. You know, nobody is perfect so you can admit to a mistake or two.

Tell me, what would you think of a reporter who shared positive results on a survey of the state of Canadian housing if the panel surveyed consisted of analysts, real estate agents and homeowners? Would the first word that comes to your mind be “accurate”?

Admit it, the results of the survey you reported on mean absolutely nothing.

I wonder if this makes it through your censor

The ugliest people on this blog are those who pump precious metals. If you disagree with a Bloomberg survey, just say so, and why – that’s sufficient. When you start chewing up everybody who doesn’t support your position, it says far more about you than them. — Garth

#152 Edmonton D.I.N.K. on 05.13.11 at 6:02 pm

I agree with Garth, we all live our lives in dollars. For food, shelter, clothing. Dollars allow me to carry out my day to day life. Hell, don’t we all get paid in dollars?

As an edmonton resident renting, I sure hope Garth is right. He seems a hell of a lot smarter than Don Campbell. Frankly I’m sick of hearing about how great Alberta is and for how “recession proof” we are.

It’s not true. I took a paycut during the recession to keep my job, along with everyone else I work for, and I was thankful to keep my job!

Just about everyone I know here is still struggling to cope with the rising cost of everything, let alone pay off the huge debts that retail crazy edmontonians have. Wages might be a little higher here than some other provinces, but everything costs more here too, Hell even Starbucks knows we are suckers willing to pay resort prices.

Would I like to buy a house, you bet your ass I would, but not in this crzy market. Even houses in scary crime ridden parts of town are asking for premium prices. I don’t know how the hell anyone in Vancouver or Toronto do it. My fingers are crossed for a huge correction here!

#153 realpaul on 05.13.11 at 6:16 pm

#143 J…you state that Binnie ‘wasn’t particularily Liberal’……then you go on to conclude that without him the land will fall to the fascists. I said he was appointed by the Liberal Party executive because he agreed with their politics. Uh….did you say something about bias?

The typical kneejerk reaction to an alternative POV is perfectly understandable given that two generations of Canadians were taught to bark out the politically correct catchphrases of the Liberal Party strategists from K-12 for three decades.

You and the other lost souls are a product of your enviornment. You listened to the teachers unions drone on about hating Harper every day and now you have no brain of your own to understand why the music has stopped. Suddenly the incessant droning of the party line is silent. It sounds like you’ve been left with a lot of vacant space and only the comfort of out of date catchphrases.

It is this very bias and fanatic bullying by Liberal socialists that I am referring to. The tyranny of the left has been shrill and violent. Sure , fine for anyone brainwashed zombies who thought of themselves as true believers.

But what of all the Canadians that Liberal socialism didn’t represent? After all, the Liberal socialists represented a very small section of the Canadian geography. Anyone who didn’t tow the party line was branded as ‘something’. It was always something shrill and nasty….. Anything to put down any ideas other than the fascism of the Liberal ideology…..thats very democratic eh. Whats that Liberal phrase “Kill everyone who doesn’t agree with us”.

Apparently, Canadians have an alternate opinion to the propaganda of the socialist elite. It was made apparent in what is called an ‘election’. The Liberals were apt to crush democracy by whatever means they could…..it worked for a while….people woke up. The tyranny of the socialists is over. The bullying of Liberals and the ‘holier than thou’ politically correct has been rejected…… There are thousands of additional ‘political appointee’s’ in the Canadian bureaucracy that need to go ‘bye bye’.

By the looks of all the ‘escapee’s’…the floodgates have opened and the rats are pouring out.

#154 Cory on 05.13.11 at 6:20 pm

I am not a goldbug bug the party is not over, so I am sorry but you are wrong again on this. It’s not that the price of pm’s are going up vs. the USD (among other fiat’s) are going down…the race to the bottom as they say.

I think that by the end of the year you will be writing about gold and silver crashing again (as always) but while both are higher than today.

#155 S.B. on 05.13.11 at 6:24 pm

Is this a PM blog? 1 in 5 posts talk about PMs. :???:

#156 A dream of a free Canada on 05.13.11 at 6:26 pm

Junius #147

If it was not free markets and not communism what is it called? It seems like a social policy which many CONservatives call social policies communism . The Communist Conservatives or also known as the CC created this socialist policy since they HATE the free markets? Can any CC explain ?

#157 betamax on 05.13.11 at 6:39 pm

#115 not asian: “…they have new vehicles, luxury everything, and $150K renos….is everyone living off credit?”

Yes, they are. The savings rate in BC has been negative every year for the last ten years. People are not only spending every penny they make; they’re spending more.

We’re a decade into a global credit bubble, and Canadians have done their share of gorging on cheap credit. Even those who have made money on housing have generally just thrown their profit into more expensive housing and taken on even more debt.

This is partly why there’s a retirement crisis coming, and it won’t end with the boomers. Even younger generations have piled on too much debt and will spend decades paying for current credit binging and for housing worth less than they can sell it for.

For them, retirement will be a period of forced austerity and want. Hopefully they enjoyed their long credit binge, because the hangover’s going to last for the rest of their lives and they’ll be paying for those vacations and expensive toys decades hence.

#158 A dream of a free Canada on 05.13.11 at 6:52 pm

The Communist Conservatives or the CC hate democracy and free markets. You CC hate the freedoms Canadians once had. Now we have the CC who will put end to everything we once took for granted.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/expect-even-greater-secrecy-in-wake-of-court-ruling-on-pms-agenda/article2021687/

#159 jess on 05.13.11 at 7:22 pm

how about this Junius

research by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, a not-for-profit body based at London’s City University, has concluded that HSBC:
■ raised more than £450m for two of Egypt’s biggest and most controversial property developers now embroiled in corruption court cases (shares in those companies have subsequently dived);

■ was the most active European investment bank in Egypt;

■ had on its Egyptian board two directors who in 2004 went on to become ministers of state overseeing land sales and privatisations under Mubarak.

HSBC under fire over leading role in land deals for Mubarak regimeBank secured more than £450m for property developers now facing corruption charges
Nick Mathiason and Caelainn Barr The Observer, Sunday 1 May 2011

=======

This corruption denies the world’s poorest people the chance to lift themselves out of poverty and leaves them dependent on aid. The report sets out what governments, regulators and banks need to do in order to tackle this complicity with corruption.
================
http://www.financialtaskforce.org/issues/trade-mispricing/

April 11, 2011

Angola Denies Billions Diverted by Graft
LISBON – Angola, Africa’s second-biggest crude oil producer, has denied a report that it lost almost $6 billion in illicit capital flows in 2009.

Read the Full Story
April 6, 2011

Data Reveal Huge Sums Spirited out of Angola
JOHANNESBURG – Almost $6 billion was spirited out of Angola in 2009, according to new data on Wednesday that highlight how much of the war-scarred African nation’s oil wealth is stolen by a corrupt elite.
========

The report examines how structural characteristics of Least Developed Countries could be facilitating the cross-border transfer of illicit funds, discusses methodological issues underlying estimates of illicit flows, presents an analysis of the magnitude of such flows, and makes policy recommendations for the curtailment of these illicit flows

The top exporters of illicit capital (cumulative outflows) are:

Bangladesh, US$34.8 billion,
Angola, US$34.0 billion
Lesotho, US$16.8 billion
Chad , US$15.4 billion
Yemen, Republic of, US$12.0 billion
Nepal , US$9.1 billion
Uganda, US$8.8 billion
Myanmar, US$8.5 billion
Ethiopia, US$8.4 billion
Zambia, US$6.8 billion

http://taxjustice.blogspot.com/

#160 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.13.11 at 7:22 pm


#37 BC Bring Cash — “. . . it took the Roman Empire almost 200 yrs to collapse due to the debasement of the silver content of their currency from the year 64 to 268 AD. In other words it took the Roman Empire 2 centuries to collapse. The silver content of currency went to almost zero.”

That would be in keeping with the change in cycles of the five root races (Black 0 Brown 0 Red – Yellow – White).

Each race has 250 years (give or take) for their turn at the top, before they hand the reins to the next. The Caucasian Race began July 4, 1776; add 250 to that and see where we are.

The next are the Yellow – Red races.

#40 BPOE Evil Twin — “I think I better invest in Kelowna Real Estate and stay ahead of the pack”

Better to wait a while (Aug. 2012?), when there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth. You will be able to pick up a bargain then.

#56 TheBigLebowski — “. . . if Barry Sottero and his gaggle of criminals and the Fed stop QE then the whole system collapses, simple as that.”

Agreed. They are contributing as much as possible to our own demise, whether they know it or not (probably not).

#61 Herb — Thank you and noted. Home ownership is in the process of being rejected by young Americans, then Cdns., simply because it has become way too expensive to maintain a home.

Better to follow the European example, and rent for life. Far simpler to live a basic lifestyle and take care of one self.

Social unrest is a foregone conclusion in the west, the people are as mad as hell and not gonna take it anymore. Govts. will have to suck it up — see response to Chaos further on.

Just as the French royal family was removed, so too will the present English one lose the lot, and not before time.

#102 Chaos — “IT’S SHOWTIME! The Monarchy is taken down by Kate. Long live the revolution.”

Hi Chaos — Good on Kate! She and Prince William are cousins as well, ‘tho not sure how far apart.

Did you see last night’s link of a cruise ship being hammered by waves? Two clips (last link), out and inside the liner.

Sign of things to come? You betcha!

#129 Tony — “For two years there was *no* appetite for commodities. The whole thing was a manipulation job by the big banks and the hedge funds.”

Everything seems to have its’ own timeline. Just as much as commodities were treading water for a while, now they have shot higher and are heading back down.

Coordinated timing? A plausible explanation.

#161 Hoof - Hearted on 05.13.11 at 7:22 pm

Cautionary tale for those buying US properties

Friends of ours won a trip to San Francisco

As went through US check at YVR, were stopped
The husband had a minor pot possession 25 years ago though no criminal record

They also pulled up his ENTIRE file/record, including traffic tickets.

Refused entry and they can’t re-book the trip

He was told if he wants to apply to be allowed into US it will cost approx.$600 and even then not guaranteed allowed entry.

#162 Uki_7 on 05.13.11 at 7:27 pm

#57 Cato Thank you for this link: http://youtu.be/GTQnarzmTOc

This is just f%@$# genius !

#163 eltabarnacos on 05.13.11 at 8:10 pm

You bet Zimbabweans use gold!!

Gold for Bread (0.1 gram for a loaf):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM&feature=related

#164 realpaul on 05.13.11 at 8:32 pm

#161 HH…a lot of Canadians have found that infractions in Canada…particularily of the ‘drug possesion’ kind…have relegated them to ‘persona non grata’ status at the US border. This is not news…being going on for years. Your friend can apply for a ‘waiver’…costs a bundle…..it takes several years to get the first approval…or not….and then must be re-applied for every year ( although it only takes two to three weeks once you have a file number)

…and right…does not guarantee entry…that is still up to the discretion of the individual immigration officer at the time. Many a professional and business man who thought the indiscretions of youth were behind them have had their businesses and careers destroyed because of this. Our government has been in a ‘full access’ sharing information mode for twenty or more years with the Americans. It was happening long before 911.

The new changes that are slated to come into effect are for more ‘instantaneous’ access to your records in that prior to the new agreement the US officer would go through a Canadian monitored database that was manned by a Canadian….much like a warrant being served. Now the US border guards have direct access to your records without seeking prior approval from a Canadian police force.

There have been a couple of instances where the bugs in the system became apparent such as the one case where the border guard began copying the personal information of women he wanted to date and started contacting them, one complainant was married…and another where the border agent began calling and texting his victim with ‘suggestions’.

#165 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 05.13.11 at 8:35 pm

Re Twilight zone

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rip_Van_Winkle_Caper

108 Shawn – many people think of money as an absolute, rather than the abstract.

#166 Utopia on 05.13.11 at 9:01 pm

#85 TheBigLebowski

Perhaps you have a legitimate link or two that sheds a little light on your claim that Queen Elizabeth is accepting personal investment advice from anyone who is really advising that Gold will see 12,000 dollars per ounce anytime soon?

Wall Street Journal maybe? Globe and Mail? Time Magazine…Forbes….Reuters….Financial Times…..National Post…Tribune……..????

Or did you just draw your own conclusions and ideas from a rats-nest of crap off the internet with no legitimacy and no name attached?

Conspiracy Tin-Foil stuff is rampant these days. Read the fine print carefully before signing on to a bunch of nonsense. It does matter who wrote it. Perhaps you are commenting on the words of Ambrose Evans Pritchard…no? Not him?

Let me guess. National Enquirer internet version 2.0

#167 randman on 05.13.11 at 10:32 pm

“Despite the selloff, commodities were still the year’s top performing asset class as of Thursday. You can see from the chart that the year-to-date return for commodities has far outpaced the return for foreign exchange, bonds and emerging markets.”

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/holmes050911.html

#168 rehau on 05.14.11 at 3:26 pm

ntil answers to these questions are found, experts worldwide believe that the best protection against the virus is to take the vaccine, which some countries have already started distributing.

#169 Live Under Your Means on 05.14.11 at 5:25 pm

#140 realpaul on 05.13.11 at 4:36 pm

I hope you take your daily pressure pills!!