Majority

So, a business-stroking, corporate tax-slashing, stable majority government takes the wheel and what happens? In the ditch, dude. At least that’s the way it looked as the Toronto stock market bled 250 points and the dollar declined in value the day after Canada turned into a two-party system. Was politics the cause? More importantly, what’s this mean for a bung in North York?

Well, yes, there will be consequences. But not yet. Tuesday’s market mess was more the fault of a shot Osama bin Laden than an eviscerated Michael Ignatieff. The dead guy (Osama) reminded people revenge rarely works out the way you expect, and America might have just pissed off the terrorists, who were apparently occupied with their virgins. So in the flight from risk which ensued, commodities were sold off, silver bugs squished and the TSX sank.

Adding to this sense of unease was an interest rate increase in India where, like China, inflation’s out of control. This is a handy little preview of what happens here soon. And all this should remind anyone with too much money in (a) precious metals or (b) equity mutual funds, they need to call home.

More on Harpernomics in a moment. First, let’s follow up on yesterday’s fun blog which detailed the drubbing real estate has started to take in self-absorbed places like Victoria and Calgary. And nowhere does myopia rule like in Vancouver. I sure, sure, sure hope the soggy little coastal dwellers who read this lame blog took their profits when I suggested it. Like many of you, the market is growing mold.

Two weeks ago I told you sales were falling off a cliff in places like Richmond, as the HAM starts to retreat. Now even the realtors admit it. Van home sales last month crashed 21% from March, and are down year-over-year by more than 8%. This means the market erosion with us for most of the past year is actually picking up speed.

Incredibly, prices are rising on declining volume and shrinking inventory. In other words, if the number of houses for sale had not plunged 23.5% from last year, then real estate values would be crumbling as supply overwhelmed tepid demand. This is the worst of both worlds. Sales are falling and homeowners are too afraid to sell because house prices are insane and nobody can afford to move. So starts what could be a death spiral.

The record high prices that house pumpers chortle over presages what may be the most spectacular self-ignited, delusional flameout in Canadian history.

And speaking of Mr. Ignatieff, let’s return to the likely impact of this election on your home, or your hormonally-charged nesting spouse’s obsession with getting one, and disturbing addiction to house porn.

First, the positive stuff. A majority government means no political uncertainty for four years. Markets like that, so it’s positive for investors who think the economy will do better. Conservatives and their plans to reduce corporate taxes to the 15% range are viewed as facilitating higher profits, which should make Bay Street happy and help support equity values. No more crazy Dipper talk about ending energy company subsidies or cleaning up oil sands emissions or saving sludge-coated ducks from Fort Mac tailing ponds, is seen as a boost for the poor $170,000-per-year electrical engineers who bleat to me on this blog. And how can that be bad?

On the other hand, it’s a certainty federal stimulus spending will end and the next few budgets will usher in some serious austerity. After all, H promised weeks ago to cut $11 billion in spending and try to achieve a balanced budget by 2014. This may not be easy, since the only reason we’ve had an economy for the last two years has been the combination of bailout bucks and emergency interest rates.

Going cold turkey could come as a shock to a lot of people who borrowed too much to buy too much house, banking on a return to normal.

So, lower economic growth will probably trim the value of the dollar, without dampening inflation. Food and energy costs are already swelling uncontrollably, which just about guarantees the Bank of Canada will be raising interest rates this summer. And autumn. And winter. After all, brother dog Mark Carney’s warned us he wants our excessive loan-taking to end, and that bloated household debt poses the biggest risk to the future.

And that’s just the stuff we know for sure.

Is this a climate conducive to real estate? Do the Conservatives care?

I hear they have houses already.

188 comments ↓

#1 shanks on 05.03.11 at 9:09 pm

if it was osama that made the tsx drop 200+ points, why was the dow flat?

btw, 1st.

The TSX is much more heavily weighted in commodities. — Garth

#2 S.B. on 05.03.11 at 9:16 pm

Top 5?? :) :)

How long till rate hike?

#3 Mr. Lee on 05.03.11 at 9:17 pm

Another point to ponders is that the Fed Chair, Mr. B, pretty much assured that he is clsoing the taps on the printing press ….aka QE2. This means an increase of the vaule of the Green Back and decline in the value of the Cdn Buck.

With that decline, Mr. C, will have a blank cheque to raise the over night. With that goes up variable rates and VRMs. Have fun ya’all

#4 All is knowledge on 05.03.11 at 9:18 pm

Election results….Garth I bet you are glad you did not run for the Liberals.

#5 Everythingforrent on 05.03.11 at 9:18 pm

i wonder if people in Vancouver, who run a business and own a house, will end up losing it all. Since I know people who runs a business and borrowed from family etc to buy a house with 5 percent down.

#6 BPOE on 05.03.11 at 9:19 pm

Lovin IT

“Incredibly, prices are rising on declining volume and shrinking inventory.”
Folks let 2011 unfold and see where interest rates are really going. Nobody will ever stop buying Richmond. Demand is HUGE and never ending supply of buyers

#7 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.03.11 at 9:19 pm

If the economy is “normal” in the coming years, then emergency 1% rates from the BOC should end… not good for housing or HELOCs.

#8 JO on 05.03.11 at 9:21 pm

The YOY change in the rate of growth in mortage debt has been declining for a while now..prices made a new high on less debt growth..very bearish indeed. Simple formula: extreme optimism + extreme credit/debt + extreme valuations = major bust. Most of these idiots who bought with less than 10 % down using subsidies from taxpayers and savers will be wiped out…a large # of people trying to avoid listing will eventually succumb to rising inflation and rates..not to mention EXPLODING property taxes and utilities…at best, we will see a modest 10-15 % decline then a flat market for years, but with many trapped idiots being forced to list or rent at a loss..so long story short, listings will rise very quickly soon, don’t worry.

Better late than never to put an end to this ponzi scheme that has fed the RE/bank senior execs and helped grow the gov’t sector by imposing the most regressive and destructive tax on the majority…that huge sucking sound you hear every month is the sound of all the recent homeDEBTRENTERS discretionary income being funnelled to the banks and gov’t to help pay their inflated rent to the establishment…and being liable for maintenance costs while playing roulette with the bond market.

Delusion is a good word Garth.
JO

#9 Hoof Hearted on 05.03.11 at 9:22 pm

Fiiirrsssssst !

Liberals last ahahahahah_

#10 Young Old Fart on 05.03.11 at 9:25 pm

Everyone else watching the game and I am 4th!!! Or 1st??

Ha, who gives a sh*t. Go Harper Go!!!!

#11 Ralph Cramdown on 05.03.11 at 9:26 pm

BoC isn’t going to raise rates based on oil or food prices — after all, those prices won’t drop with higher rates. Core inflation is still quite low, even if cost of living sucks.

What the BoC needs is for people to give up on finding jobs. That will reduce the unemployment rate, then they can raise short rates.

#12 Hoof Hearted on 05.03.11 at 9:28 pm

I agree re Richmond…

It has fallen off a cliff.
Inventory of all types, new and old, is sitting there….it was like the late 2008 when world financial crisis happened

When that HAM rumour of $1 Million plus offers on teardowns…..I smelt a rat.

Then it came out in news that some realtor was tying up owners and trying to flip them.

However, I see a lot of developments being built with the sense of desperation…no sticker that says 70% SOLD

I am seeing other sites sitting vacant…no activity, not even excavators to prep the site.

IMHO, even the big boys guessed wrong big time….

#13 Tim on 05.03.11 at 9:28 pm

I underestimated the intelligence of many Canadians. They bought into the fear and the attack ads brought on by Harper, who successfully eliminated the middle and forced people into a choice of extreme right or left. Sounds like a move toward US politics. Many who said they don’t trust Iggy couldn’t provide a single reason related to his policies. Get ready for a diminished CBC, more prisons, fighter jets, privatized health clinics, lax environmental standards, a much more polluted Northern Alberta and reduced participation in the democratic process.

Maybe Donald Trump would do well here too…

#14 Cellar Dwellar on 05.03.11 at 9:33 pm

@#6 BPOE
“…Nobody will ever stop buying Richmond. Demand is HUGE and never ending supply of buyers…..”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Spending a bit too much time in the Elevator with Mr Fartz there BPOE?

Delusional doesnt even begin to describe your Realtor pumping.

#15 eddy on 05.03.11 at 9:40 pm

Canadians have sent a clear message-
We endorse the bombing of North Africa

#16 Robert Dudek on 05.03.11 at 9:45 pm

Isn’t there sort of strike action in China right now? This might be having an effect on commodities.

#17 nonplused on 05.03.11 at 9:46 pm

#6 BPOE,

There is no such thing as a never ending supply of anything except human stupidity. Einstein straightened this all out years ago. But I’m not going to try and do econ 101, it’s all right here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand

Except that they forgot the part about how abnormally low interest rates and increased availability of credit can artificially stimulate demand until lending practices normalize.

#11 Ralph Cramdown

A Fed governor was explaining core CPI recently (this actually happened but I am paraphrasing): “The new iPad is twice as powerful as the original, yet is the same price!” In fact in the CPI-U the effect is that consumer electronics, or at least the iPad component, fell by 50%. But of course in reality it means both my kids want one, so it costs me twice as much! And we can’t eat them. The Fed will figure this out soon enough. My bank account already has.

The CPI-U is just another lie from the people who brought you smaller, more efficient government.

#18 Stevermt on 05.03.11 at 9:46 pm

that looks like Harper in the photo after the next 3-4 years
of gorging at the trough..oink oink

#19 JohnnyBGood on 05.03.11 at 9:46 pm

Carney is stuck between a rock and a Bernanke.

And the pressures are building as the Fed continues its attempt to reflate everything in sight, inflation explodes globally, and Canadian banks run out of desperate schemes to stuff IOUs into home buyers’/owner’s already bulging pockets (which they never would have done had their risks not been so graciously covered by you and me).

Choose your metaphor. The higher they climb, the faster they fall. The bigger they get, the harder they fall. What goes up must come down. Etc, etc…

The only way out is a massive inflationary boom, the likes of which we’ve never seen, that will allow the economy to catch up to and fund all the future wealth that has already been spent.

Barring that, most of us will be poorer in the future. Either because there will not be enough money, or––ironically–– because there will be too much.

#20 Elmer on 05.03.11 at 9:48 pm

I have about 10% of my money in a precious metals fund, what should I do?

Depends where the rest is. — Garth

#21 Only The Bankers Laugh on 05.03.11 at 9:49 pm

You have to admit. Stoking the housing market in 2006 with free money and then using emergency rates in 2009 to keep the housing economy rolling for this long to establish a perception of “stable” economy to enable the opportunity to win a majority was a risky move but the bubble grew and grew and it worked. Then, a flameout by Ignatieff and ascension of Hey big spender Jack and the right centre moves to right being scared of Dips and there you have it….boom, bongo, magongo! The risk to our overall economy with the CMHC mortgage debt and encouraging debt all over at these rates may never be blamed on Harper and Flaherty if this thing spirals down now. If they can convince folks that they’ve done extremely well through recession, you never know what can be spun with a majority. As we watch another jobless recovery down south and all know someone who is overextended or underemployed here in Canada, it is a still a little fragile out there but fear not as Steve and Jim have another master plan that might just work. Talked to Bell and Cogeco today and the weather in Delhi are fine despite price and wage inflation. Can’t wait to visit HR, estimating and accounting in Mumbai. And don’t worry, Canada, housing as an economy stimulus forever works. It’s different here. We’re the new London, Milan, Paris and Barcelona.

#22 BigAl (Original) on 05.03.11 at 9:52 pm

Have some relatives in BC who all voted Conservative because they are convinced the Cons will keep propping up housing.

Why would the Cons have any interest in doing that now, with the majority in hand?

But then again, theirs that Western hatred of Ontario…

——————–
$170K/year electrical engineers?

That could change too…Try $55K/year electrical, aerospace, etc. engineers. I’ve seen quite a few of the professional class begin to creep in under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program. They’re not immigrants with Perm Res status or anything. They’re temporary ‘guest’ workers. All of you out there who think this program is just for menial labour, think again. It covers ALL occupations.

And all employers are feeling pretty darned entitled to replace their workers (management, professionals, labour) with these workers. Why? They’re constantly on pins and needles, never make a single wave, always afraid of losing the job and being deported home.

Remember….managers, professionals, labour.

#23 not 1st on 05.03.11 at 9:54 pm

“No more crazy Dipper talk about ending energy company subsidies or cleaning up oil sands emissions or saving sludge-coated ducks from Fort Mac tailing ponds”

Yup and no more talk about greasing dead beat boomers and quebec with more unaffordable entitlements.

Isn’t it time to burn a cross? — Garth

#24 LJ on 05.03.11 at 9:54 pm

Harper just got carte blanche to get the economic house in order before he has to start handing out goodies 4+ years from now. I hope that he tightens the screws relatively quickly and doubles the TFSA contribution limit sooner.

And…… Go Carney!!! Hike those rates and give me some yield.

#25 Paul on 05.03.11 at 10:10 pm

“First, the positive stuff. A majority government means no political uncertainty for four years”.

Do you think big labour and all the radical NDP voters will sit on the sidelines and let Harper do what he wants? Or will we see mass protest and strikes galore over the next 4 years? Things have changed.

Postal strike is less then 3 weeks away and now with Harper majority he’ll probable bring in back to work legislation quickly so his business buddies don’t lose to much money. But will the posties go back? Will it be the start of something much bigger in the labour movement?

#26 Mikey the Realtor on 05.03.11 at 10:17 pm

#13 Tim on 05.03.11 at 9:28 pm

hey Tim, dont forget those pesky Fema camps with their plastic coffins, I heard D. Rockefeller was actually visiting one just the other day; just checking up on business I hear.

#27 walter safety on 05.03.11 at 10:24 pm

There’s still a labour movement ?

#28 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.03.11 at 10:26 pm


“Majority. So starts what could be a death spiral.” — Not what could be, what will be.

The nice thing about it, is that when the walls come a-tumblin’ down, the CPC, having killed ITs, brought in 0/40s, 5/35s and 5/30s, kept int. rates artificially low while trying to boost a sluggish economy will take 100% of the blame for the mess ordinary people are in.

This time, there can be no ‘blame game’ on the Libs., Dippers, Bloc or Green — the CPC started it and the CPC will end up like the Libs., in the gutter. But it also means time to get some fresh blood into the political arena.
*
#184 GregW, Oakville — Hi Greg. Link worked fine for me — start key is in lower left corner of clip. If it still doesn’t work, let me know and I’ll post the url.

#233 Hoof – Hearted on 05.03.11 at 8:31 pm — “After 25 miles the Irish man decides he can’t finish the race, so he turns around and swims back to the start.”

Hey! I represent that statement!
*
May Day May Day Although time has speeded up enormously, economies of the world are slowing down.

7:10 clip A Democrat calling Obama for failed deficit leadership. Imagine if someone criticized Harper for poor leadership — how long would that person be in caucus for?

4:32 clip bin Laden has been a really busy corpse for a decade now, so he’s on vacation now!

5:09 clip Now that ObL has been launched into space and the ‘War on Terror’ is over, shouldn’t the troops be coming home?

A new era begins Not here, but in Palestine. A lot of countries now recognize Palestine’s pre-1967 borders.

4:49 clip Mind control games begin. Osama’s dead. Is not! ‘Don’t tell me, they got Bin Laden. What a way to kick off Obama in 2012 corporate campaign’!

1:09 clip NMF — first level breached by army engineers.

Dirty Money? A Cdn. story, no less.

And the reason for this is: “US Senators are calling for suspension of aid to Pakistan. With the confluence of all of the above, if you don’t think that the US government is strongly considering “regime change” for Pakistan, you had better think again.” wrh.com.

Cartoon Character See headline for further info.

4:56 clip Interesting question: Is there a connection between the bin Laden announcement, and the debt ceiling being raised?

Debt Ceiling Two “But what country or financial institution in their collective right minds would want to loan money to the US government at this point?!?” wrh.com.

May 16 Debt Ceiling This is the same time when eleven states will be involved in NMF drills, but Geithner has apparently extended it ’til August.

“Food and energy costs are already swelling uncontrollably, which just about guarantees the Bank of Canada will be raising interest rates this summer. Adding to this sense of unease was an interest rate increase in India where, like China, inflation’s out of control.” — Roughly everything seems to be nicely timed for a big, world wide autumn party.

#29 Mr Rich Capitalist on 05.03.11 at 10:31 pm

#13 Tim on 05.03.11 at 9:28 pm

…Get ready for a diminished CBC, more prisons, fighter jets, privatized health clinics, lax environmental standards, a much more polluted Northern Alberta and reduced participation in the democratic process.

——————————————–

Damn….Christmas came early!!

#30 Utopia on 05.03.11 at 10:35 pm

#227 Snowman on 05.03.11 at 7:26 pm

” Only you could turn 1% into 60%. — Garth”

As I’ve clearly mentioned in my post, median SFH price in Calgary for the month of April has increased 5% over the month of March same year (MoM) or 60% annualized.
——————————————————–

Why on earth would you try annualizing a month over month increase for one loonie market when so many others are already in outright decline?

Sounds to me like a snow-job, snowman.

#31 Genghis on 05.03.11 at 10:37 pm

Someday we will be able to look back and laugh at predictions like this (appearing in the Vancouver Sun today):

“At the worst, declines of 10 per cent or so in the costliest cities, Vancouver and Toronto, are “not unthinkable,” believes economist Benjamin Tal at CIBC World Markets.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Home%20prices%20gliding%20pause%20except%20here/4708392/story.html

#32 Debtfree on 05.03.11 at 10:46 pm

@ TA…. mixed race couple moving into stornoway .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stornoway_%28residence%29

#33 Soylent Green is People on 05.03.11 at 10:48 pm

xxxxxxxxxxxx had posted a personal idea of his re the situation we find ourselves in. I am pasting it in below. I think healthcare issues might work to make people heated enough. What do you think?

……………………….

The idea of Harper having a Majority, and continuing his abuse towards “absolute power” in this country, I am left to ask myself, what now?

I have a strong opinion it is this thought alone that should encourage an immediate discussion surrounding recall legislation – an effective and attainable recall process, particularly for majority governments.

Let’s assume for a moment a majority government attempts to introduce something so radical at the beginning ot it’s 4 year term, that the people want a way out, or a way to stop a certain action by a governing party, and don’t want to wait 4 years to force change?

What if enough signatures were gathered in a riding to force a by-election,

…and if enough ridings held these by-elections to remove enough seats from the governing majority party that they were reduced to a minority?

At the very least, if there was enough outrage, the Canadian people would be able to take control into their own hands and democracy would prevail if the majority government was reduced to a minority.

I encourage your thoughts on this. Again, these are my personal thoughts and they are for discussion purposes only.

I look forward to hearing from you.

.
.
.
.

Now it’s time for Canada’s Uncut Movement

http://politicsrespun.org/2011/03/why-you-dont-know-about-the-uncut-movement/?utm_source=wordtwit

http://www.thenation.com/article/158282/how-build-progressive-tea-party

http://canadauncut.net/

http://www.facebook.com/canadauncut

Twitter: #CanadaUncut

.
.

#34 Utopia on 05.03.11 at 10:49 pm

“After all, brother dog Mark Carney’s warned us he wants our excessive loan-taking to end…” ~~Garth

You sure Mark is showing up here? After reading all the commentary the past few weeks it seems this place is mostly populated by socialists, communists, leftists and anarchists. Need I mention gold-bugs and the back-to-nature crowd (no stripping naked on-line please).

Which one is Mark?

#35 Mr. Reality on 05.03.11 at 10:58 pm

We are experiencing a market top. Remember for next time because this is when the real money starts.

Shorting the markets.

Mr. R.

#36 The Phantom on 05.03.11 at 11:00 pm

Evening Garth; fellow bloggers:

I strongly believe that Harper will signal the end or at least the beginning of the end, of the stimulus program now that he has the mandate he requested from the Cdn electorate. My hope is that interest rates will also begin to rise…

Watch the fiscal constraints trickle down from the federal to the provincial to the municipal level. Cutbacks in transfer payments contribute mayhem to provincial governments trying to balance the competing needs of maintaining services and keeping their budgets in the black.

I’ll bet there are more than a few here who recall the days of the Mulroney era when cutbacks in transfer payments to the provinces resulted in some hard choices for the then finance ministers at the provincial level. In Manitoba, it was employed as a pretext to cut funding to education by 2%/year for a number of years until matters became dire.

Property taxes skyrocketed as School Divisions made up budgetary shortfalls from provincial cutbacks by raising taxes IOT maintain semblance of continuity in the school system. Classroom sizes grew larger and fewer programs were mandatory and classes like Phys Ed were optional credits for a time. Elsewhere, there were moves to privatize parts of Homecare and the company “We Care” was contracted out to provide services that before were offered publicly, and without tender. Moreover, in an effort to save money, emergency rooms were closed; a political decision that later haunted the former Health Minister when he ran for city council in Brandon, MB.

My goal here isn’t to demonize the new majority government (although I can say that they weren’t really my first choice; I would have preferred another minority government simply for a degree of insurance that certain matters wouldn’t be foisted upon an unwilling populace). My real point here is to state that a time of reckoning could well be upon us. Almost certainly we are going to see some fiscal restraint at the federal level; it is equally true that there exists the real potential for interest rate hikes. Both these factors will have the net result of less money in the pockets of consumers resulting in less spending on “toys” and possibly fewer jobs.

Should oil increase further, that too will result in less money for Cdns. No one might argue that further cuts to taxes will have an effect that will counterbalance that influence but it remains to be seen if it will completely erase that pull.

To the positive side, once we begin to sort ourselves out in terms of the deficit, we can begin repaying the federal debt once again and hopefully improve the rating agency perspective that we have our “house in order”.

As always, time for bed…

night all

the Phantom

#37 The InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 05.03.11 at 11:15 pm

CONSERVATIVE OR NDP, WHO CARES?

No matter what government we have, here is something you can count on.

Self-reliant hard workers who are prudent and live below their means will continue to do okay. Full time whiners and the over indebted will continue to whine and fret.

In other words, in general, Winners will continue to Win and Losers will continue to Lose. This applies to sports and to life.

Yawn…

How ’bout ‘dem Leafs?

#38 Tim on 05.03.11 at 11:16 pm

Harper Spent $26 million for attack ads
http://groups.google.com/group/mtl.general/browse_thread/thread/da38691bc301105e?pli=1

#39 Tim on 05.03.11 at 11:21 pm

Harper Strategists Taking a Page from Republican Playbook

http://federalelectionblog.ca/2011/04/15/harper-strategists-working-from-us-republicans-playbook/

Branding and spin have become central to every major party’s campaigns. But Harper has taken the game to a new level – in ways that undermine informed democratic debate.

The Harper strategists seem to be working from the US Republicans’ playbook. With a war chest much larger than their rivals, Harper’s team has spent big bucks over several years in order to position their political opponents, like Michael Ignatieff, as dangerous enemies. And so they entered the relatively short official campaign (it just seems insufferably long) with a substantial head start in image making, and with their opponents on the defensive.

What are the tactics in this playbook? Stay within a tightly-controlled message box, and relentlessly repeat nonsense until it becomes commonsense

#40 jas on 05.03.11 at 11:23 pm

When govts.talk about core inflation, why do they exclude fuel prices and few other things from their calculation??…as if those items don’t have an impact on people’s lives…
To me, it all seems to part of dirty tricks…misleading…
Inflation calculation should be all inclusive. Shouldn’t it ?

#41 Devore on 05.03.11 at 11:37 pm

If Canadian dollar is going to drop, then we will be seeing price inflation all over the place as the price of commodities will go up for us. Rising CPI will give Carney any number of excuses to raise rates whenever he wants to.

#42 mel on 05.03.11 at 11:37 pm

Here we have another herd mentality that seemed to work. Scare them enough, tell it over and over, and bingo! They will believe it. That is what happend on May 2nd.

Harper asked for a majority, and herd gave it to him. In the next few years, I am betting that most of them will be disappointed. He will NOT save their overvalued houses, he will not prevent oil from coming down in price, due to slowing economy worldwide. No amount of ” without me protecting the west/oil sands” will do any good. World economies will decide our Canadian economic faith. We have now almost 50% of our economy in commodities related. If that goes POOF, we shall look down and see nothing but bare cupboards.

Our economy is very ineficient. When you look at leases, labor costs, dollar….if you want as a company to export, well, you better think long and hard if in the end you can compete internationally. The only place that might be some saving grace is the Harper government has promised corporate tax cuts. But remember, you give to one, and then take from another pocket.

Forget about balanced budgets. If the economy goes to a slowdown by the end of this year, only if he digs deeper and deeper into the money pit, will he be able to do it. You know who will pay the price for that privilege of balanced budget, the ones that has decided that we need stability in government.

Debts money must be repaid, living within our means must be accomplished, and thus, pain will be inflicted on those who wait for the promises of our Government to deliver a soft cushion. You will be wise to be prepared.

#43 Sharpen The Saw on 05.03.11 at 11:40 pm

PC majority. Made me sick how NOW Harper says he feels “humble” and is willing to work with the other parties and listen to their ideas and concerns. This idiot can lie with the best of them. He wasn’t willing to work with the other parties before, nor does he have much in the way of listening skills when it comes to his own MPs, or the other members in the HOC. Now he has a change of heart, eh? Harper and Humble aren’t two words that really belong together. He is anything but.

…and for any of you whining that he’s your PM….I got it twice as bad…he’s my MP, too.

#44 Gold Bum on 05.03.11 at 11:41 pm

“And all this should remind anyone with too much money in (a) precious metals or (b) equity mutual funds, they need to call home.”

How does one have “too much money” in precious metals when we are/about to experience extraordinary inflation? Isn’t gold/silver the ultimate hedge?

#45 not 1st on 05.03.11 at 11:45 pm

NDP victory is hope and change? Nah, just separatism extortion wrapped in a different package. Even the Globe and Mail can see it:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/quebecs-flirtation-with-the-ndp-is-just-a-test/article2009219/

Good luck Jack. Your courted the separatists and now you have a tiger by the tail.

#46 Cato on 05.03.11 at 11:48 pm

Thank the US for the inflationary nightmare the world is about to endure. If the Bernank keeps short-term rates 4% to 5% below the prevailing global inflation rate dollar-denominated paper assets will continue to decline and we’ll see the start of a wage-price spiral. Conversely, if the Fed raises interest rates it will crash the housing market putting the brakes on the the economy which will weaken the dollar further and increase cost-push inflation even more. There is no way out of this inflationary trap – either choice is poisonous.

We are about to witness the result of political failure in the US followed up by the failure here at home. The US is effectively insolvent, there simply is not enough demand for US debt at these suppressed rates – the Fed has no choice but to step in and monetize, dollar weakness is preferable to allowing the bond market to set interest rates. The Fed points the finger at congress, congress points finger back at the Fed – its like a drug dealer blaming junkies for the drug problem in society.

The US has the political and economic tools to pull itself out of this mess. Its already happening, but not soon enough to avert currency crisis. Bet against the USD but don’t bet against the american spirit. The libertarian movement taking hold within republican party won’t be beneficial to Canada.

The biggest warning sign before US housing crash was the debt juggling those on the edge was doing before finally losing control. Banks were slow to react, none of them wanted to step up and be first to admit there was a problem. Same thing is happening in Canada now, Canadians are playing the same debt dance. Taking on more debt to manage existing debt obligations – never getting ahead because they are already insolvent. In my area I can point to dozens of vacant homes that should be in foreclosure that the lender hasn’t made a move on. Extend and pretend.

The political left likes to blame the banks. This wasn’t the fault of the banks – this was a political failure. Banks never would have made these loans at these valuations if it weren’t for the political interference by way of the CMHC. The banks were simply an instrument of misguided policy.

This next term is going to be dose of economic reality most probably won’t want to accept. We’ve built our social infrastructure reliant on our trade advantage with the US. That advantage has disappeared, and the US will use a weak dollar policy to bleed manufacturing jobs at Canada’s expense. What happens when the divide between have and have nots becomes a chasm.

There is only one reserve currency worth holding long term and thats Gold, not dollars. We will see prices over $4000 oz before this crisis is over. Central banks are staying out of silver and platinum but are heavily accumulating gold. The 8,000 tons of gold held by the Treasury is the insurance policy to ensure US prevails in a global fiat meltdown that is now an inevitability. The world isn’t going back to a gold standard – but Gold will be the backstop against collapse while world sits down and hammers out Bretton woods type agreement on a new world reserve currency.

#47 Tim on 05.04.11 at 12:13 am

Conservatives Under Harper Aimed to Destroy the Liberals

In the book Harperland: The Politics of Control, author Lawrence Martin quotes Harper adviser Keith Beardsley saying that the prime minister “hates the Liberal Party”, and the long-time strategy was to “break the brand”.

A former Harper chief of staff, Ian Brodie, was quoted in the same book saying: “Does he hate the Liberals? Some of them.”

Former Liberal and Conservative cabinet minister David Emerson offered up a similar observation, describing Harper and his men “hating their political opponents” to a degree that startled him.

http://www.straight.com/article-390540/vancouver/conservatives-under-stephen-harper-and-ndp-leader-jack-layton-aimed-destroy-liberal-party

#48 Ant-626 on 05.04.11 at 12:18 am

There are just a few questions that should be answered to determine someone’s strategy of how to survive in the time of cholera.
Here are a few numbers:
Canada: spending $237.8 billion, budget deficit 40.5 (16%) (2010), projected deficit 2011: 32.
US: spending $3.83 trillion, budget deficit $1.56 (40%) (2011)
Sure, someone still may count those forged CPI or any other inflation indexes (those that not counting vital components like food and energy, re-phrasing Mary Stuart “Let them eat iPad2”), but should you really care about statistical gimmicks? You have all the numbers.
Interesting, the monetary base for US used to be around 2.0 trillion in mid 2010, and 90 billion in Canada. Since every country is now effectively printing money, is does not make sense to toss a new debt around (like Japan used to buy US Treasuries at the same time Caribbean offshores and London were buying Japan’s debt). Since the Chinese are getting a bit stubborn in importing inflation (i.e. buying someone’s debt), all new IOU’s are doomed to come home to roost. Well, the Fed is not even pretending – why to keep playing that old game “some unspecified offshore investor bought a load of bonds/notes”, we could just buy that new debt by ourselves?
So, the globalist’s nirvana is here, there’s no one left to sell the new debt to (since everyone is printing), and all new debt immediately adds up to the existing monetary base (with some fluctuations, of course).
Still counting on that someone (O is still there making change out of a $, H will be there for at least 4 more years) who will stop that debt orgy? Yesterday Canadians gave a green light for the (debt) party keep going.

So the expected GDP growth is within 3-4% (or less) for both Canada and US, that implies
blown by 70% M0 in US will be chasing the slightly increased amount of food/commodities/services. Sure, there’s also a monetary velocity, but it’s also picking up. For Canada it will be less ugly, just 35% M0 increase. Sure everything will be up, stocks, commodities, houses. Well, houses not up in US? Watch the miracle happen.

If you don’t like do the numbers, here’s the monetary base:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-010-x/2009001/ct010-eng.htm

Here are my questions:
We are experiencing the biggest jump in the monetary base in history (the entire globe, not just US or Canada), and still no inflation (or a tame one) to come?
It’s a common logic that the current working generation is providing all the benefits to the retired one, no matter how much money/gold/stocks the old one saved. If the infrastructure remains almost unchanged (or even degrades as in some states south the border) last 20-30 years, how the fewer number of working people will provide the bigger number of pensioners with the same or even better benefits as of today? (Think twice, taxes may not be the right answer).
What would be the next equivalent of the money if each and every government (will, except Swiss) is aggressively debasing currencies?

#49 smartalox on 05.04.11 at 12:19 am

@ #13:

I am beginning to understand Harper’s genius in this past election: he kept up the raging right-wing rhetoric and bully tactics to drive worried middle Canada even further left of centre… to the embrace of the NDP. Sure there were all kinds of troubles in the Liberal camp, but I talked to a lot of young people who voted NDP because it presented itself as the more extreme anti-Conservative choice. Unfortunately, this is not really how politics works.

Yes, the young came out and voted in record numbers. Unfortunately, they don’t know any better.

#50 Brian1 on 05.04.11 at 12:20 am

Garth: I just received a census in the mail ordering me to fill it out immediatly. Now I don’t buy my stocks this way and I can’t imagine any western Canadian jumping up ready to sign. I will be asked as Gordon Sinclair once asked ” What are you afraid of?”. Well that’s just it. I don’t know what I’m afraid of, but I am afraid. I have been afraid ever since the police started to wear black. I have been afraid because my vehicles have been inspected twice for no reason. You have given me confidence to be in the stock markets but I think I need help to believe we are not entering the dark side.Anybody?

#51 Patz on 05.04.11 at 12:26 am

(Cozy) Nostra
A Democrat calling Obama for failed deficit leadership. Imagine if someone criticized Harper for poor leadership — how long would that person be in caucus for?.

Dunno, whyn’t you ask Garth, he might have a guess at it.

CKNW reported the stats for Vancouver that Garth gave above then the reporter went on to marvel how “prices just never fall here, no matter what.” To which the host chimed in something about Chinese buyers. It will be interesting come the crash to hear how, “No one could have predicted this!”

These guys are to economics as the CIA are to finding terrorists, i.e. takes them a while.

#52 Dylan on 05.04.11 at 12:34 am

dive tsx….dive!!!! let’s get another entry point.

double dip would be fantastic.

#53 palebird on 05.04.11 at 12:47 am

The posties going on strike..who cares.. I have not had mail delivered by canada post for over a year..they are obsolete and do not even know it..

#54 Jody on 05.04.11 at 12:56 am

I just can’t wait until Heir Harper makes it legal for the bacon to stop you in the street and demand to see the contents of you mobile phone and laptop, after all, you could be/are, a terrorist. Billions will be spent on the war against people – terror/prostitution/drugs/non-existent crime/people who grow their own food/raw milk/etc.

In all honestly I just want to scream while beating the hell out of a CONservative. The ONLY way I see to fix the constant stupidity in Canadian politics would be to abolish political parties. I see that being the only way to allow MP’s to actually vote how their constituents want them to vote instead of towing the party line all the time. Our new MP will not represent us, she’ll do whatever that control freak Harper will tell her to do, how the hell is that democracy? She’s a young firm thing, she wont say boo, just “yes sir.” Maybe thats what Harpers into. Oh and by the way, Canada is not a democracy, it’s a constitutional monarchy.

#55 Aussie Roy on 05.04.11 at 1:06 am

Aussie Update

Housing in Australia is in great shape?, rising stock on market, falling clearance rate, falling prices, mortgage debt growth at 35 year low, rising interest rates, energy and food inflation, state and federal govts cutting spending and increasing taxes and now a rise in mortgage arrears. Grab your popcorn and watch the biggest national housing bubble deflate while the delusional hang on to their insane views.

Alarms ring on rising mortgage arrears

ANZ and Westpac’s rise in mortgage arrears highlights an “alarming” problem lurking in the broader economy, say analysts.

As Westpac today reported a 7 per cent rise in its closely watched cash profit to $3.17billion, analysts at UBS said ANZ’s sharp rise in arrears — or overdue debt — was an “ominous lead indicator for the domestic economy”.

The warning came as Peter Esho, chief market analyst at Cityindex, said a similar rise in arrears in Westpac’s results today “suggests mortgage stress is rising”, particularly in recent months.

ANZ reported yesterday a sharp rise in arrears since September, with more than 30 days arrears rising 41 per cent to $5.8bn, while more than 90 days jumped 26 per cent to $2bn, with the majority related to its Australian mortgage business.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/city-beat/rising-mortgage-arrears-sound-alarms/story-e6frg9no-1226049758390

Australias GDP $1.2T, mortgage debt $1.2T, that must be a world record.

JO on 05.03.11 at 9:21 pm

Excellent post. Lots of commom sense. Pity the delusional simply don’t get it. Those here who keep pointing to price increases in Van simply display their self reinforced delusional. I suppose its to be expected when not one of them consider rental yields or debt levels and only focus on speculative capital gains.

#56 Jay Currie on 05.04.11 at 1:32 am

So, if you’re Harper what do you do. Well, traditionally, you get as much of the pain out of the way in the first two years as possible. Lowers spending, higher interest rates, mortgage rule tightening, tax increases – front load the lot.

Does that mean houses are going down. Yup. And they already are anywhere but Vancouver and TO. I am looking at listings in Victoria and I am also looking at houses on brokers sites but not on MLS. They are steadily climbing and an awful lot of the over 1m are sitting as they have for the last year.

Then to CL with a rental search for >$1500. 100 houses and higher end condos listed since May 1.

The rot is there and its spreading.

#57 Mighty Moose on 05.04.11 at 1:38 am

I think the blue liberals will help the white collar corporations in Canada rather than helping the blue collar class of Canadian.

This government with not much opposition will reduce the middle class by 15% every 2 years. Therefore, by 2015, I expect many Canadian going from middle class status to lower class.

Just as an aside… What do you all think about CBC breaking the electoral law. Could they have swung the ding dong from minority to majority?

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/federalelection/archives/2011/05/20110502-214137.html

#58 Mighty Moose on 05.04.11 at 1:48 am

Just to add something -, as yesterday Canada was mainly blue and orange!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7RXW8CJiuc

#59 Daystar on 05.04.11 at 2:39 am

#13 Tim on 05.03.11 at 9:28 pm

I think we could see a privatized CBC altogether, Tim.

But first, I would like to offer simply that a 167 seat majority without Quebec never surprised me, but for reasons different than the ones I’ve yet to hear from the media, voters or politicians. People vote for brands as much if not more so than they vote for individuals or leaders and I cannot emphasize enough just how much the provincial Liberal brands in BC, Ontario and Quebec have hurt the federal Liberal brand in this election. Here we have a tired, corrupt Campbell led Liberal government in BC, a deficit spending unpopular Mcguinty Liberal government in Ontario and a Charest scandalized Provincial Liberal government in Quebec all going down in flames in the 3 largest provinces in Canada and Canadians can’t get rid of them fast enough.

We couple this with Micheal Iggeatief (never could spell his last name right), a leader who lacked the ability to come across as in touch with Canadians. He just didn’t have the charisma or charm or whatever one wants to call it, he didn’t come across as flexible, in touch, charismatic, inspirational or sincere (I’ll spare him with what he did come across as) with the two most important events in this election: Peter Mansbridge interview and Televised debates and this is the reason for 34 Liberal seats, the worst defeat in Liberal history.

Simply put, Iggy needed to be exceptional or else and he was far from it. He needed to be creative and if he couldn’t, swallow his pride, admit his weakness, park his arrogance and trust those who are to help him and thats just not how Micheal rolls. I think he isolated himself from those that could most connect him to win this election, never mind place second and thats what I believe to be highly unfortunate for Canada.

Its highly unfortunate for Canadians, I believe, because now we have given Steven Harper, a man with a 6 year background (or longer, he started his life as a lobbyist in politics) as a lobbyist working for the NCC, a right wing organization who dedicated their time to raise funds and sway media/courts to give their corporate sponsors (big oil, health insurance, media, weapons manufacturers, grain/argricultural handlers, food manufacturers, you name it, most of them american save Canadian media, specifically CTV globe media/Can West) the best edge for the sole goal of access/dominance of Canadian market share and now this same Steven Harper has become the most powerful man in Canada.

Did Harper ever give up his old job lobbying for foreign interests? Time will tell, but if I was him I would size up the 167 MP’s the nation elected for weakness to see if any will defect when bills are up for vote that will be highly unpopular. The policies the NCC currently campaigned for are no different than the policies Harper has campaigned for as an opposition leader and PM (save a few touchy feely ones).

http://nationalcitizens.ca/index.html

http://nationalcitizens.ca/doc_bin/Agenda%20For%20Canada%20PDF.pdf

The last link is worth a scroll.
– Abolish the Canadian Human rights commission
– bust unions
– protect corporate property rights (a sneaky way to get around environmental/health issues, if I do say so)
– restore English language rights in Quebec (a good way to goat them into separation)
– elimination of all special interest group/non profit organization funding by the feds. Only the profitable corps need apply!
– end public healthcare
– cut taxes (end all surplus’s, the reason naturally for dramatic spending cuts to social programs (healthcare, education, etc)
– privatize CBC (a sure way to further concentrate media, ensuring Conservatives control the message.

But wait, thats not all! End the wheatboard. With no canadian grainhandlers in Canada to pick up the slack, American grain handlers walk in and take the market share overnight. It will come with a fight, of course but there are roughly a mere 24,000 farmers all told in Sask/BC and with the CBC gone, who will they take their message to? Who will report the industries hiccup’s, should the industry go bust with the CBC gone? The rest of the media is pro Harper.

What of our public contributions to political parties to the tune of 1.95 a vote? Gone. Ushered back in are the days of old with corporate donations limits raised to unheard of limits, where money and concentrated media controls elected outcomes with a twist. Unions won’t be allowed to participate (if there should still be some left for the next election). What would this do to our political system? Usher back in the days of lobbyists directly influencing election outcomes. For parties like the NDP/Libs, it could spell the end of their ability to fight financially in the media. How well did the lack of media attention work for the Greens? Uh… yeah. Their popular vote was almost halved because they didn’t get debate exposure. Thats the power of media. Mute choices. Bury damaging stories. Generate and soft sell positive propaganda.

The true cherry however, to the great sellout of Canada is the removal of foreign owership restrictions by the Harper government particularly in our banking industry (never mind uranium/airlines). If Harper removes these restrictions, (and he will most definitely try with success and who will now stop him?) our economic sovreignty is over. We can say goodbye to our economic control of Canada. Should we be at all surprised at this? Assimulation towards the american model began 5 years ago. We are about to enter an age of full on Conservatism (watch Ontario go PC and Quebec go ADQ/PQ and then, I think, the true sale of Canada begins along with the true beginning of its balkanization). When our Conservative created housing bubble pops, when our crown corps get sold off and our unions get busted and services shrink, when recessions linger on and on… and on, who will Canadians blame and turn to next? The self interested media, to borrow a Johnny Cash expression, “will piss on our backs and tell us its raining”.

It will be very interesting to see if Harper is the NCC prez of old, or a PM acting in Canada’s best interest but I have my doubts that Harper was ever loyal to Canada and I’m not the only one that fears for its very survival now. But y’know… if I’m right (I really don’t want to be) and most of the loyal Canadians of the 40% pool that voted for Steve got fooled, duped, hoodwinked, bamboozled, greased and outright lied to… its not the end of the world (just the possible end of a great nation with so much promise). Its just a wakeup call to not take good things for granted, to fight for and preserve our liberties and freedoms that we inherit, fleas and all… and react to the lies we hear with special interests written all over them accordingly for our freedoms and liberties come with a high price. If we are lucky, it will only cost us our money and not our blood. (oh, did I mention the end to gun control and the future entry to every future U.S. led resource war until Harper is gone? Enough said, y’all get my point)

#60 Aussie Roy on 05.04.11 at 3:50 am

Thought this may be of interest.

Dear Prime Minister Harper,

Congratulations, on Monday, you captured your majority, with the NDP forming historic Opposition. I’ll be the first to admit that I thought it would be another minority government, but it turns out the NDP really helped you in Ontario and Quebec, taking away many long held Liberal and Bloc seats.

I want to share some of my post-election thoughts with you:

Read at.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/open-letter-prime-minister-harper

#61 Heloguy on 05.04.11 at 4:40 am

I don’t wish anyone ill will but the surging Canadian dollar is not only causing our exports to be more expensive but it is having a detrimental effect on my finances and others in the overseas working\expat community. I have lost 30 percent of my pay over the last 2 years due to exchange differences. I know this is counter intuitive but I believe a lower Canadian dollar will benefit the country as a whole. I, for one, am full of hope that the Americans will rebound back quickly. Any thoughts on this Garth??

Cheers

#62 Tim on 05.04.11 at 5:46 am

Anyone into precious metals should buy now, the weak hands have been shaken, now we can get on with the appreciation

And pick up a house in Richmond while you’re at it. Can’t lose. — Garth

#63 Robert Dudek on 05.04.11 at 5:53 am

Fiscal restraint coupled with rising interest rates equals the economy diving off a cliff.

Lax fiscal and monetary policy is the only thing keeping the economy going.

#64 House on 05.04.11 at 6:08 am

More likely the economy will tank. Meaning rates will stay low to prop it up. Invest will leave Canada for countries paying higher rates which will lower the Dollar and maybe help the economy.

#65 Victor on 05.04.11 at 6:41 am

#48 smartalox on 05.04.11 at 12:19 am
@ #13:

I am beginning to understand Harper’s genius in this past election: he kept up the raging right-wing rhetoric and bully tactics to drive worried middle Canada even further left of centre… to the embrace of the NDP. Sure there were all kinds of troubles in the Liberal camp, but I talked to a lot of young people who voted NDP because it presented itself as the more extreme anti-Conservative choice. Unfortunately, this is not really how politics works.

Yes, the young came out and voted in record numbers. Unfortunately, they don’t know any better.

==================

It would be a mistake to assume that young people tend to vote on the left side of the spectrum…

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/984352–harper-the-big-winner-with-high-school-students

Prime Minister Stephen Harper remains a winner with Canada’s high school students.

In a mock election, half-a-million young Canadians voted in a Conservative minority government with the official opposition going to the New Democratic Party.

Across the nation, 512,175 ballots from 3,416 high schools in 299 electoral districts were cast.

This is the third time Canada’s students have voted for Harper.

And, this is the fourth federal election put on by the national, non-profit group Student Vote, said communications director Katie Reidel. She was a high school student during the first student election in 2003.

“There is a belief students are much more left than their adult counterparts but that doesn’t appear to be true,” she said from Toronto. “The students, surprisingly, tend to predict the actual outcome.”

#66 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.04.11 at 6:57 am

GTA April RE numbers should be published today… if total sales are less than 10898, that would be 12 months straight of year-over-year declines.

#67 bigrider on 05.04.11 at 7:05 am

Garth what are your thoughts on lending money for first mortgages. I have been approached and offered 8% for a first, fully secured obviously, with about a thousand dollars in fees upfront as well for me (should cover gas for my bike for the rest of the season).

No mention ever on this blog regarding private lending I think.

Run. — Garth

#68 David B on 05.04.11 at 7:20 am

Let the good times roll ….corporate tax rates lower means pay raises all-a-round … happy hours extended … new car sales and longer summer vacations in Harperland. And the Toronto Maple Leaf will be in first place by Christmas en route to hands down Stanley Cup ….!

Off for a Hair Cut while it is still only $12 having gone up last $2 bucks after 15 years …… Hard times in Maritimes bye.

#69 Oh! Canada on 05.04.11 at 7:46 am

Real Estate will keep rising until interest rates go up, or supply increases.

Right now we have remarkably low inventories of both new and re-sale homes. We are witnessing a rare yet classic supply-side real estate story.

Trying to spin these facts into a real estate horror show is a bit of a stretch, to say the least.

No spin. Higher prices are bad news. Falling sales is worse news. Surely you are not that one-dimensional in your analysis. — Garth

#70 The American on 05.04.11 at 7:48 am

At #31: Ghengis, sales have already dropped 8.2%+ YOY in the greater Vancouver area from April, 2011 to April, 2010. Now, ready for the REAL shocker that wasn’t part of the headline? Sales in Vancouver have plummeted 21% MONT OVER MONTH from March, 2011 to April, 2011! That’s a HUGE drop in such a short amount of time. Now, I wonder why they would use the YOY figure vs. the MOM figure. One more thing, listings have gone UP 8.2% MOM for April. This is obviously a very bad sign. Sales are WAY down and listings are up. Prices in some areas are now admittedly sliding.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. You hear that, BPOE?

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Metro+Vancouver+home+sales+down+eight+cent+from+year/4720103/story.html#ixzz1LKoIel1z

#71 Dean on 05.04.11 at 7:53 am

Refusal to raise taxes will be the achilles heel of this government. Nobody wants to see rising taxes — but the government has a serious revenue problem right now that can’t be fixed by simply lowering corporate taxes and crossing our fingers.

I think that this majority might actually be the best thing for the NDP (and I’m not saying I’m a huge NDP supporter). The “corporate tax cuts stimulate growth” strategy has met with questionable success historically, and disaster lately (ask the US). When housing takes it’s correction, and drags on people’s morale and the economy, there’s only going to be one party to blame.

With 103 seats people will now consider the NDP a threat to govern and not just throwing their votes away. Layton must be pretty excited.

#72 Xnilo on 05.04.11 at 8:33 am

Hey Garth, did you say “there will be consequences”? I say there will be hell to pay for the Harper majority. Four years from today people will look back on Brian Mulroney’s legacies with fond memories. When all is said and done some might envy the Irish and the Greeks wishing for nothing but the Second Coming itself. I find it hard to believe boomers and their children once again let the wolves into the barn. So how does it play out, you say?

First and very soon, the CMHC money well will dry out ending the 300 billion lending spree, and quick will follow sharp interest rate increases. Before the end of this summer the housing market will crash fully.

Second, next years government budget will be full of austerity measures to the tune of possible 100 billion dollars. This will gut the public sector on all levels of governments and ushers in a kind of stagflation never seen in any life time.

Third and last, four years later and it is election time, Quebec politics will degenerate to the point of successful separation. With the departure of Quebec, the west reformers/separatist who are now call themselves conservatives will then declare fait accompli! Harper the eternal strategiest will be remembered as the last prime minister of Canada.

#73 Live Under Your Means on 05.04.11 at 8:37 am

#49 Brian1 on 05.04.11 at 12:20 am
Garth: I just received a census in the mail ordering me to fill it out immediatly.

……………
I shredded mine yesterday because they shredded the long form census.

#74 DARLENE on 05.04.11 at 8:39 am

As a Lib I’m quite happy about siting on the sidelines while the Cons and NDP duke it out. It’s going to be nice not to be blamed for the shit that’s going to happen.

I got one question for the Cons though. Are you going to despise him like the Libs if he follows through with the advice from the CTF and Fraser Institute?

See the links below to see what the Fraser institute and CTF said.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6xC2gP1W2g&feature=player_embedded

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Conservative+think+tank+Harper+more+like+Chretien/4323649/story.html

Let the games begin, we’re in for one wild ride!!!!!!

#75 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.04.11 at 8:57 am

GTA numbers are in…. sales down 17% from April 2010:
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/index.htm

#76 Utopia on 05.04.11 at 9:03 am

#42 Mel

Not sure where you got the figure that 50% of the Canadian economy is commodities related. We do know that roughly 71% of our GDP is reflected by services, 2.5% is agriculture and 26% is industry.

But you might have been referring to export incomes alone, right? So I was curious too and took a look at what Statistics Canada might offer for comparisons (see below)

Here is something I came across from CNN Money as a side-note suggesting the Canadian economy was the worlds 9th largest in 2010. The source was the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and we are placed right behind Italy.

http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/g20/interactive/index.html?cnn=yes&hpt=C2

For some perspective on the relative weighting of exports though we can see from the data that oil accounted for only 3% of our GDP while manufactured goods accounted for 13%.

Here is some data on the Economy of Canada (Wiki)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Canada

But this other year-by-year breakdown offered by Statistics Canada is much more fun because you can crunch the numbers for yourself. It certainly suggests to us just how important manufacturing really is to our country and proves that it represents a larger share of national export income than does the commodity sector.

http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/gblec04-eng.htm

That’s why the auto sector gets so much attention from the government of course. There are many times more people employed in production than in mineral extraction too. It is why they got bailed out. Ontario was really getting hurt by the recession and we are still not out of the woods yet.

Those of us out West in oil and gas countries need to always keep in mind our contributions to the national income through commodities are not as significant as the volume of noise might suggest.

#77 Herb on 05.04.11 at 9:09 am

Daystar @ 58,

I so wish you were wrong!

#78 refinow on 05.04.11 at 9:11 am

PC majority, no big surprise..

With the Liberal ship sinking faster then the Titanic, their previous supporters were bobbing in the water with only two lifeboats PC, and NDP.

NDP lacking corporate support, no possibility of overtaking the PC.

Very easy to predict the outcome of that election..

One would hope that we have seen the end of Michael Ignatieff once and for all , that horse was dead last time he ran..

The people have clearly spoken….

#79 Xindai Shan on 05.04.11 at 9:13 am

GTA Sales down 17%.

#80 Kevin on 05.04.11 at 9:13 am

The March to April sales decline was expected, since the death of the 5/35 mortgage pulled demand ahead. The April-May numbers will be much more indicative of any sort of trend than the one-off situation created by Flaherty.

All this doom-and-gloom makes for compelling reading, but at the end of the day, so far I haven’t seen any real-world impact at all to the average homeowner. So sales inventory is down. So what? I’m not looking to buy. Doesn’t affect me. Even if prices pull back 25%, again, so what? They’ve gone UP by that much in just a couple of years. So our home’s value rolls back to its 2008 value. If I’m not selling, what do I care? And even if I were selling, I have to live SOMEWHERE, so I’d probably also be looking to buy. And if my own home sells for 25% less, then guess what – whatever I buy will be 25% cheaper, too, so it’s a wash.

Until this myopic navel-gazing obsession with trivial sales and inventory numbers starts manifesting as actual foreclosures and bankruptcies, I guess I just find it hard to get that worked up about it.

#81 Brad K on 05.04.11 at 9:13 am

Interesting results from the Toronto Real Estate Board today. Sales down 17% but prices up YOY.

Analyzing the data – Sales of Single Family Homes below $500K have cratered while sales of homes $1M+ have exploded. Makes you think the price increase is a bit of an illusion.

YOY Change in S.F. Home Sales (April 2011 vs. April 2010)

<200,000 -36.7%
$200K-300K -31.6%
$300K-400K -22.0%
$400K-500K -13.6%
$500K-750K 2.9%
$750K-$1M 1.9%
$1M to $1.5M 21.4%
$1.5M+ 12.9%

What do you make of this Garth?

#82 refinow on 05.04.11 at 9:25 am

66 Big rider..

Private lending at 8.00% for 1st mortgages..

One should ask that do you really want the mortgages that the big bank don’t.

Do you ever wonder why the Banks are paying from their own pockets, (not really, they just increase the interest rate spreads to compensate for this) to insure all residential mortgages, even the A++ clients with 50% equity…

Ever wonder why CMHC will no longer insure rental Properties.

Or why CMHC will no longer insure refinances above 85% loan to value….

Because they are preparing for what is about to happen..

Like boarding up the windows, and and filling sandbags before the hurricane hits…

So again, do you feel safe lending to 80% based on historical high values on the deals the Bank’s wont touch?

There is higher risk to get higher returns, and holding mortgage paper, is less liquid then actually owing the real estate itself…

Run, run, run…

Go to the casino, but your money on Red, spin the wheel.

Better odds with a greater rate of retun….

#83 Fuzzy on 05.04.11 at 9:27 am

If the “39% of the vote makes us a broad national party” CONServatives keep pimping super-prisons and massively overpriced american fighter jets, they’ve got another thing coming than a 2015 balanced budget … like being thrown out of office à la Mulroney.

#84 Utopia on 05.04.11 at 9:40 am

#66 Bigrider asked…

“Garth what are your thoughts on lending money for first mortgages. I have been approached and offered 8% for a first, fully secured….No mention ever on this blog regarding private lending I think”.

Run. — Garth
——————————————————–

I might weigh in on this one too. I think Garth meant run away (not run towards) the offer. Run as fast as you can too.

We have seen this game before. As credit dries up and demand increases then there is a place for private lending again. The risk premium has got to be worth your time though.

Take a look at how some of the non conventional lenders are feeling about risk these days. Despite the fact we have historically low interest rates, auto lenders for example have recognized that consumers are strapped and the possibility of defaults high. Those individuals with less than perfect credit scores are facing interests rate ranging from 10 to 32 percent as a result.

The spreads are incredible really but these guys have taken the hazard into account. Credit card rates are also stratospheric for many. The pay-day loan business is the most fascinating to me though. These guys have padded the loans with so many fees, fines and penalties on top of interest that it is difficult to wrap your head around what the real interest rate amounts to.

They are North of 30% by my calculations in many cases despite the fact they are borrowing in the low single digits. There are few businesses making such incredible profits right now as consumer credit worthiness has declined even while rates remain stuck at historical lows.

Next up is the private lending category where individuals like yourself are being enticed into financing mortgage debt for what appears to be hefty interest rates. Be careful though.

If you are not prepared to be the owner of the property you are financing you should just turn the offer down. In reality, as real estate prices seem set to fall you will want to be certain that the borrower can qualify on a higher rate and comfortably make the payment.

Expect to see a lot of enticements in the future though. As soon as banks themselves really tighten up on lending then the really good offers will begin to appear. Like 15% on seconds and that sort of thing. Bundled mortgages for investors are also popular. All of it is risky if our R/E market comes even close to melting down like it has in the US though.

So yes…run away, or in your case Bigrider, put the pedal to the metal and get the hell out of Dodge before you start getting stars in your eyes about rates that look too good to be true. It’s the risk you need to look at more closely than the reward.

#85 BB on 05.04.11 at 9:44 am

#13 Tim
You’re way off base. The reason the Conservatives won is because Harper moderated his right-wing ideology. He’s nothing more than a liberal in blue.

#86 Don on 05.04.11 at 9:45 am

I totally agree that yesterday’s market troubles had nothing to do with the CPC victory. But I’m confident that had there been a minority, or had Jack won the election, the identical market dump would have been explained in the business media as a reaction to uncertainty and socialism.

I for one welcome our new capitalist overlords. I’m thrilled that the CPC will have to wear the housing market melt and debt-driven destruction of the middle class without being able to blame it on “socialists and seperatists”. Good luck with that pain-free balanced budget by 2015!

#87 Utopia on 05.04.11 at 10:00 am

#58 Daystar on 05.04.11 at 2:39 am

You just won’t give up will you Daystar. Talk about peddling fear and anxiety. We will see what actually transpires but most of your predictions are just phantoms inside your own head. A crazed government could do anything, right? Why didn’t you just add that you think the Conservatives are going to shut down all the hospitals and ship all the old folks off on ice-flows?

Your paranoia knows no bounds. Get over it. Your party lost.

#88 Quebec on 05.04.11 at 10:08 am

Harper has the most powerful majority in Canadian history since Confederation. WHY? He is the first Prime Minister this country has ever had that is not beholden to Quebec. Harper has learned 3 times that Quebec is a rabid dog and bites the hand that feeds it. Here are the equalization payments for 2010/2011

Quebec ($8.552 billion)
Manitoba ($1.826 billion)
New Brunswick ($1.581 billion)
Nova Scotia ($1.11 billion)
Ontario ($972 million)
Prince Edward Island ($330 million)
The following provinces will not qualify for equalization payments in 2010-2011:

Alberta
Saskatchewan
Newfoundland and Labrador
British Columbia

What happens to Conservative popularity in the rest of Canada when the Conservatives cut the transfer payments to Quebec and spread the love around Canada a little thicker? BINGO…back to back majorities. What happens when the provincial bloc heads piss their pants on the soverignty issue again…bingo back to back Conservative Majority.

I predict Harper will win two more Majority governments by neutering Quebec. Treat em mean keep em keen Harper! Four years from now Quebec will be begging to play ball with you. It feels like Christmas!

#89 mackie on 05.04.11 at 10:09 am

Don I agree entirely. I would not want to see a repeat of what is happening in the US where Obama is taking ALL the blame for the troubles there. Let Harper and his neo-coservatives face the music in 4 years. In the meantime, I am going to hide under a rock.

#90 45north on 05.04.11 at 10:23 am

Brad K. :
<200,000 -36.7%
$200K-300K -31.6%
$300K-400K -22.0%
$400K-500K -13.6%

those are significant numbers, you would think that the over $500K market had decoupled from the under $500K market.

refinow: talking about CMHC: Because they are preparing for what is about to happen..

Like boarding up the windows, and and filling sandbags before the hurricane hits…

I think the banks are doing the same thing. When the banks fill in their moats you don’t see them because they’re invisible moats.

#91 45north on 05.04.11 at 10:30 am

fill up their moats not fill in

#92 Utopia on 05.04.11 at 10:38 am

And speaking of Richmond…here is a story today about a new 180 unit condo project burnt to the ground that was still under construction in that city.

The fire was reportedly so big they could see the plumes from White-Rock which is 35 kilometers away. People claimed they had never seen anything like it in all their lives. Wonder what might be behind such a massive fire ball (accelerant perhaps?).

Maybe the locals didn’t approve of the idea of low income housing in their special Rich. neighborhood after all. This one sounds suspicious to me though. The fire was just TOO big.

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/221432–smoke-still-billowing-after-massive-richmond-fire

#93 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.04.11 at 10:41 am

@ #84 BB

#13 Tim
You’re way off base. The reason the Conservatives won is because Harper moderated his right-wing ideology. He’s nothing more than a liberal in blue.

Sounds eerily like the “compassionate conservative” G.W. Bush, who promised to “bring people together” and “reach across the aisle”.

#94 Bailing in BC on 05.04.11 at 10:50 am

Ouch! I just looked at Squamish’s stats. Detached prices down 8.6% YoY and down 24.5% over 3 years. Glad I’m out. Would have lost $44k this year had I held on.

#95 International Toronto Condo Flipper on 05.04.11 at 10:51 am

Statistics for Toronto (416 only) condo resales:

Jan.2011:
first two weeks – 292 units – down 12%
whole month – 805 units – down 14%

Feb.2011:
first two weeks – 612 units – down 6%
whole month – 1158 units – down 10%

Mar.2011:
first two weeks – 703 units – UP 1% – end of the 5/35
whole month – 1645 units – down 4%

Apr.2011:
first two weeks – 683 units – down 11%
whole month – 1427 units – down 20%

#96 le Connard on 05.04.11 at 10:55 am

As someone who had unfortunately lost relatives in the holocaust, I find (#53) Jody’s insistence in associating Harper with Hitler and would like it to stop.

I unfortunately called Jody a

DELETED. And get lost. — Garth

#97 Cellar Dwellar on 05.04.11 at 11:13 am

@ #53 Jody
I’d like to paste a few of your statements before commenting….
“I just can’t wait until Heir Harper…..”
“In all honestly I just want to scream while beating the hell out of a CONservative. The ONLY way I see to fix the constant stupidity in Canadian politics would be to abolish political parties…”
“Oh and by the way, Canada is not a democracy, it’s a constitutional monarchy…..”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I find it interesting that you compare Harper to a Nazi
(one assumes that you meant Herr Harper” not “Heir Harper”?) Next time perhaps try “Hair Harper”. It would be far more amusing and your intellect would be fully exposed for the pea sized(or is that pee sized ?) brain that it truly,painfully is
Then in your following statements you want to “beat up” anyone that doesnt follow you way of voting/thinking? This is EXACTLY like the NAZI movement of the 1930’s. Brownshirts running amok,savagely beating anyone that disagreed with them. Interesting view on the democratic process.
And then you go on to say you want to “abolish political parties” which is EXACTLY what HITLER did!
Unbelievable.
Finally you attempt to admonish us fellow voters with your statement that Canada is a constitutional monarchy. Wow ! I guess that means(by your way of thinking ) that Harper wasnt elected by a fair, free populist vote?
There’s a good arguement for turning Canada into a 1930’s version of Nazi Germany.

Time to wake up in Civic’s class my little tadpole? Or perhaps stop hanging around with the rest of the welfare sucking anarchists?
Either way.
Grow Up!
Your guy/gal LOST !

#98 bill on 05.04.11 at 11:17 am

daystar
could you tighten that up a little?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elements_of_Style

#99 Blitzkrieg on 05.04.11 at 11:24 am

Cato,

Excellent post and right on the money, expect the scenario to materialize over the next several years

#100 bill on 05.04.11 at 11:32 am

tim says:
”Anyone into precious metals should buy now, the weak hands have been shaken, now we can get on with the appreciation”

in my opinion this will be a very volatile summer for pm’s especially for silver.
caveat emptor

#101 bridgepigeon on 05.04.11 at 11:32 am

Who’s going to be put in these new US style mega prisons
that we’re borrowing money to build? I suspect it’ll be our pot smoking criminal children.

#102 Live Under Your Means on 05.04.11 at 11:47 am

#73 DARLENE on 05.04.11 at 8:39 am

Agree, except that the PBO post will be killed by Stevie and Frazer’s term is up. They’ll likely appoint a con friendly Auditor General. Just look back at all those highly paid con friendly commisioners, e.g. Ethics, etc. who did zilch and were paid big $$$. And, 3 or 4 Supreme Court justices are due to be replaced – no doubt with right wing ones.

It may be interesting, but devastating to those 60% of Canadians who did not vote for this neocon govt. Just not sure how much of the neocon current and future legislation can be reversed once they get thrown out in 4/5 yrs.

Power corrupts and no doubt we’ll see a lot of corruption in the next 4 years with this majority govt. We’ve already seen it with the last minority govt. I won’t rely on the majority of the MSM to report it, however.

#103 Two-thirds on 05.04.11 at 11:57 am

If interest rates are set to rise this year, should I wait to purchase preferred bank shares until the rate hikes are finished?

Or are the monthly distributions worth taking a for-sure capital gain loss?

This would be for an RESP with several years to go before withdrawal.

#104 Junius on 05.04.11 at 12:02 pm

#85 Don,

You said, “I for one welcome our new capitalist overlords. I’m thrilled that the CPC will have to wear the housing market melt and debt-driven destruction of the middle class without being able to blame it on “socialists and seperatists”. Good luck with that pain-free balanced budget by 2015!”

I agree. I had hoped they would have a minority which would limit the damage they could do but perhaps it is time to see up Mr. Harper’s sleeve. He needs to wear this one and it is going to look increasingly like a straight jacket.

#105 Junius on 05.04.11 at 12:04 pm

#80 Brad K,

This is classic market top. We are seeing the same thing in Vancouver. Houses at the upper end skew the averages due to increasingly low volume. A clear sign of a market well into transition as the pool of greaterfools has run dry.

Harper could not have timed it better.

#106 realpaul on 05.04.11 at 12:09 pm

The ‘swoon’ in the markets has nothing to do with the elections…or Canada for that matter. Its just the traditional and disciplinary ‘sell in may and go away’ cycle of profit taking after the 1st Q reports that has happened every year. It is only scary for the amateurs who read the papers, get panicked and sell. This is a great time to print money for the more seasoned investor….buy cheap stocks and hold…..market timing is for amateurs and the ‘extreme’ professionals who work in tightly organized cubicles. The media always notices too late and announces that the world is coming to an end…Bwahahahahahahahaaa…… idiots. News flash…the world will continue turning and the smart money is buying the issues that go on sale while they can.

#107 bill on 05.04.11 at 12:21 pm

please note this has nothing to do with real estate….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK0snNNkOlM&feature=player_embedded#at=70

#108 Junius on 05.04.11 at 12:25 pm

#79 Kevin,

You are missing the overall point of the entire housing bubble issue. The problem is not just about the price of houses. That is the effect but not the cause.

The underlying cause of the housing bubble is a cheap credit society that is now receding. It legacy is a consumer in debt up to their eyeballs and beyond. We also have gov’ts in serious debt at all levels. Meanwhile our economy is more than 65% based on consumer consumption.

Rising house prices bring with them a “wealth effect” which make people feel good about the state of their finances and they spend money even if it is in the form of credit card or HELOC debt. This is what has kept the motor running on the economy the past few years.

What is happening is that people have run out of money for basic goods and services. We see the cost of gas and food going up but no increases coming in the form of wages. We actually had negative GDP in February of 0.2%.

As the price of houses begins to tip down the “wealth effect” will begin to reverse. People will focus on paying down their debts and stop consuming. This will put pressure on all kinds of businesses that normally cater to the housing market and every day life.

You may not have to sell your home. However your financial situation and your attitude can change regardless.

#109 Dinner by 7 on 05.04.11 at 12:28 pm

LOL @ Jody (#53)

What a twisted and hateful mind you have – I bet you live in a darkened basement and hate the world for all the wrong reasons … get a life!

#110 Steven Rowlandson on 05.04.11 at 12:32 pm

Hello Garth.
Welcome to the wonderfull world of continueing sky high debts and deficits. Rest assured Prime minister Harper will continue on the path of anti fiscal rectitude and the national debt will continue to soar as canada continues on with its policy of fiscal and political immorality.

Don’t worry about the opposition, the NDP will vote for greater spending thus guarranteeing that the government will be stable untill the next election.

As for silver bugs getting squashed I think that only applies to the paper subspecies. The physical types are just mad as hell! Most frauds and manipulations end badly and the end has not yet come.
Yes Garth the next 4 to 5 years will be interesting times.

Steven

#111 Devore on 05.04.11 at 12:37 pm

#34 Utopia

You sure Mark is showing up here? After reading all the commentary the past few weeks it seems this place is mostly populated by socialists, communists, leftists and anarchists. Need I mention gold-bugs and the back-to-nature crowd (no stripping naked on-line please).

First, you are grossly oversimplifying the spectrum of posters here, and not without bias.

Second, most people reading do not post, and I would venture to say many do not read the comments.

#112 BB on 05.04.11 at 12:42 pm

#101 “Power corrupts and no doubt we’ll see a lot of corruption in the next 4 years with this majority govt.”

I agree. Under Chretien, the Liberals were the most corrupt government ever. Harper is a mere trifler compared to that shady and crooked bunch.

#113 SMOKING MAN on 05.04.11 at 12:50 pm

Numbers are out for GTA, Second best april in 10 years. Prices up 9%. annually.

With the stock markets getting beat up, mini bond raily means lower fixed rate mortgages and c-blocks BOC from raising overnite rate.

The sheep will buy, even though fundimentals suck.

Still Bullish on RE sorry guys

#114 Steven Rowlandson on 05.04.11 at 12:56 pm

Tim as a matter of principle I agree that people should buy precious metals. As a practical matter the best time was back in the 1990s when people were dumping their holdings and blowing the proceeds on stocks and real estate. What ever you do buy physical and squirrel it a way and keep its location secret.
Avoid paper like it was the plague.

Steven

#115 Evangeline on 05.04.11 at 12:57 pm

#88 ((Don I agree entirely. I would not want to see a repeat of what is happening in the US where Obama is taking ALL the blame for the troubles there.))

not exactly. yes, the blame is being put on him by his political opponents, but no he is not taking it, he is still blaming Bush.

but seriously, do you really think that after eight years of non-top political demonization of Bush there wasn’t going to be political payback?

that’s why it’s not such a good idea to demonize in the first place. because, in politics, as in all aspects of life, what goes around will always come around. so if you don’t like it, don’t do it.

#116 Mr. Reality on 05.04.11 at 1:02 pm

Remember this graph Garth posted?

http://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/COMMODITY-CHART.jpg

Get your finances in order, sit back and enjoy the ride!

Mr. R.

#117 Big D on 05.04.11 at 1:05 pm

#79 – Kevin

I agree with you, to an extent, that too much focus on inventory levels is myopic, however, we’re all looking for indications of where the market is and this is some of the only data we get to see.

That said, I think the sales declines clearly show that the steam is gone out of the real estate game. That said, I don’t believe higher interest rates will cause the market to crash. Barring an economic shock, I think the impact of the moderate cooling of the market (10-15% drop) in the short term won’t manifest it’s effects until people need to refi. If people have jobs, they’ll keep making their payments. It’s when their equity goes from 5% down to -10% and they need to bring cash to closing that people are forced into foreclosure. In the US, this is what pushed most people I know into that situation.

Keep in mind that will take years to bear out since people have 3 and 5 year terms on their mortgages. In 2010, we finally saw the end of 3 year term mortgages issued during a hot market (issued at high valuations). This is why we continue to see foreclosures growing. The cleanup of easy credit in the housing market will take years. The slow melt theory has credence and it has little to do with being able to walk away.

Of course, one economic shock and all bets are off.

#118 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 05.04.11 at 1:10 pm

“I for one welcome our new capitalist overlords. I’m thrilled that the CPC will have to wear the housing market melt and debt-driven destruction of the middle class without being able to blame it on “socialists and seperatists”. Good luck with that pain-free balanced budget by 2015!”

So, did Bush really get blamed for the nightmare in USA? Seems like Obama is stuck with it and so, too, could the next NDP or Lib to take office in 4.5 years when we’re sick of Harper’s crap. With media being as it is, it takes the norml folk not paying attention to such things a while to sort out the truth. As an old hockey player learns, you can follow the fans but you can’t fool the players.

#119 SALES DOWN 17% for the GTA on 05.04.11 at 1:16 pm

Realtors are going to have to really lie hard to fool more greater fools into economic slaughter. This markets 11 months in a row of falling sales? WOW hear comes the spin of lies from realtors.

GTA numbers are in…. sales down 17% from April 2010:
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/index.htm

#120 Evangeline on 05.04.11 at 1:19 pm

((Harper’s team has spent big bucks over several years in order to position their political opponents, like Michael Ignatieff, as dangerous enemies.))

and you don’t think Harper is a dangerous enemy? you’re totally immune to propaganda, right?

#121 Young Old Fart on 05.04.11 at 1:21 pm

NOW we are cooking….

Buy a House, Get a Glock: Real Estate Agent Offers Guns as Incentive

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

HOUSTON — A Texas real estate agent looking to add more bang to her business is offering clients in law enforcement a free Glock pistol if they buy a home from her.

Julie Upton, a Houston-area real estate agent, spurned traditional buyer incentives like free gasoline cards or home improvement store gift certificates.

Instead, she placed an advertisement offering a pistol with the purchase of any home worth at least $150,000 in the city police department’s monthly publication, “Badge & Gun.”

The free guns are only for those in law enforcement, said Upton, who is married to a police officer.

“We thought it would be a good way to entice other police officers,” Upton said. “And whether people want the gun or not, it has stirred up a lot of attention.”

Upton has given away two pistols to police officers who purchased homes from her. The guns cost about $500.

And so far the advertisement has not generated negative attention from the anti-gun lobby, she said.

In Texas, no license is required to own a rifle, shotgun or handgun, but a permit is needed to carry a concealed weapon, according to the National Rifle Association.

#122 Debtfree on 05.04.11 at 1:34 pm

I have a prediction ….in four years time harper will be the most hated canadian in the history of our country . He is poised to put more of our children in jail than any other in history . Here is the brit’s view .
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/03/canada-stephen-harper-american-politics

He will likely drive Quebec out of canada …oh canada.

#123 Debtfree on 05.04.11 at 1:38 pm

if you don’t read the guardian’s view. here is one line from the article that says it all.

“a Canadian version of George W Bush, minus the warmth and intellect, is now prime minister.

#124 Snowman on 05.04.11 at 1:38 pm

“GTA numbers are in…. sales down 17% from April 2010”

Indeed, also the average price up 9.1%, looks like you’ve missed that part.

#125 not 1st on 05.04.11 at 1:47 pm

Ouch! I just looked at Squamish’s stats. Detached prices down 8.6% YoY and down 24.5% over 3 years. Glad I’m out. Would have lost $44k this year had I held on.

_____

I just about bought into the squamish “story” a few years ago. I mean they were really pumping it with the olympics and all so it sounded like another canmore or something. Nice to see it losing traction now.

#126 Hoof Hearted on 05.04.11 at 1:53 pm

Re Jack and the NDP

From Alex Tsakumis blog

1. While the NDP “surge” only materialized in Quebec, they picked up support in KEY areas, particularly in BC. If you deduct the 59 seats they secured in la belle province then your left with a high vote mark almost identical to the best of the Broadbent years. That might seem hopeful in some sense, but it’s not. They increased their standing but decreased in influence.

The NDP have hit their ceiling, notwithstanding their general gains. Add the collapsed support of the Pequiste/Bloc vermin and the dizzying death spiral of the Grits–both of whom will recover, and the Dippers can hardly rest. They have assured the Quebecois of a steamy pile o’ promises. And they only man who can help mitigate the NDP collision with reality is Stephen Harper, who will not engage.

But here’s the kicker: Four of their new MPs are inexperienced university kids that will now be hauling $150,000 per year salaries; one is a 19 year old communist and another is the barkeep at Carleton University’s pub, who spent the last week of the election away from her Quebec riding, because she was partying in Vegas. Oh, yes, and she can’t speak French. This tells you just as much about the NDP’s shamelessness as it does about the Pequiste idiots’ shamefulness– they want nothing but the keys to YOUR POCKETBOOKS.

Remember that the next time eJackuLayton and the NDP tell you they are there for you…

=========================

#127 Daystar on 05.04.11 at 2:14 pm

#85 Don on 05.04.11 at 9:45 am

I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. Its gotcha politics from voters themselves. Naturally, I still maintain that the 3 largest provincial governments, all going down in flames have a great deal more to do with federal brands than one thinks. One need only read premier comments of the federal election to get the gist.

But still, there is a sense that there are those who want to see Harper reveal what they believe to be his true colors, someone with a hidden agenda that is no longer hidden prompting those who knew better to say, “see, I told ya’ so.”

I really don’t wish for hard lessons myself. Personally, I could have opposed a Harper government much moreso than I did, but the reality is that Canadians really do take the models of the systems of government entwined in law and literal governance, for granted. The ol’ hairband song, “don’t know what you’ve got, til’ its gone…” applies here. It will take the erosion of human rights and freedoms, increased media propaganda, a major drop in access to healthcare, drops in educational standards and services in grade school finally, to see it. Some will say we have this now and that we don’t have it lucky but by who’s comparative standard? I do find the native issues to be somewhat appalling in this nation but otherwise, where are we so worse off?

We have long since known that if one has money, they can recieve the best of services not just here for the most part, but anywhere in the world. Its funny how the rich belly ache when their hard earned tax dollars don’t give them the best of everything government can provide. Is it an excuse for lower taxes, arguments for government to get out of providing education, healthcare, police, penal systems, EI, social assistance, pensions and all the rest? You bet it is. But in the greater analysis, who can afford such services the government presently provides? Mainly, if readers haven’t caught my drift, its the rich. Private services, in case one hasn’t noticed, is more expensive. Compare and contrast all one likes, pay as you go is a system for those who have, not those who have not. That includes most definitely healthcare and education, but… what services do people receive if they don’t have money?

Here in Canada we get a good comparative standard. And elsewhere? I suggest we look around to see where we stack up to see if we’ve got it lucky or not and we’ll find that for the most part (I didn’t say all parts), human rights and essential services to minority groups and the poor are better than most other nations of the world.

Until the standards of services drop in government or privatized services that were once provided by government triple in cost, people likely won’t get excited but then… it will be to late.

People don’t quite understand how radical it could get. Never mind dramatic privatization and cost escalation of health care, we could see it in education following the U.S. model. Below the 49th parellel for example, substitute teachers don’t need a grade 12 education. Their criminal background isn’t checked. Child molesters can literally teach in schools without background scrutiny, thats how loosely regulated their education system is, all to save money. Subs there go teaching for a few days and end up teaching for months on end as regular teachers delay coming back or replacements are hard to find. Why the lax standards? Cheaper pay. No child left behind Bush era, where does the U.S. education system stack up now in ranking world wide?

http://rankingamerica.wordpress.com/tag/education/

23rd out of 65 participating nations. The U.S. isn’t setting the world on fire in educational circles and, uh… we don’t want to follow their lead.

Here is what is potentially up for sale in Canada:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crown_corporations_of_Canada

Most of these crowns have been talked about in terms of privatization by your current federal majority government which can now push through any bill they like. Topping the list would in my mind be:

Atomic energy of Canada
Canada council for the arts (dissolved)
Canada Mortgage and Housing corporation (CMHC)
Canada pension plan investment board
Canada post corporation
Canadian Science and technology museum corp
Canadian transport security authority (combined into national security)
Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC)

I could go on, but readers get the jist. Most of these crowns can and likely will be either privatized, dissolved or combined into other governmental services. Every board on this list is potentially likely to be dissoved, every crown that competes with private corporations can and likely will be privatized and there isn’t a thing Canadians can do to stop it but the true carrots up for grabs are like I say, restrictions lifted on foreign ownership of our airlines, uranium and most importantly, our banks. Combine it with the privatization of public healthcare which Harper can now easily do with deep cuts to provincial transfers all in the name of lower taxes, more jobs, etc… and… guess what, it doesn’t stop there.

Government services such as the RCMP can be privatized with elected sheriffs on the dole following the U.S. model. Same goes with our federal penal systems. Same goes with virtually every system of governance we have federally and to boot, laws can be passed to ensure private profitability such as keeping those privatized jails full. Stiffer laws with possession and grow ops of marijuana would be all it would take in this nation, but one can expect laws to be much stiffer and widespread in preparation for a privatized federal penal system.

I must stress, I don’t want to see this happen to Canada as others who fight for equality and fairness don’t (apparently its a bad thing, these days, fighting for equality and fairness, deserving of some sort of “socialist” smear, lol), but it can happen and voters just gave Harper the means to do it. Thats a great deal of trust to give to a guy who spent 6 years of his life lobbying as president of the National Citizens Coalition directly to destroy such government services, laws and regs that fight for human rights specifically, equal rights and fair essential services for all so corporations, most of them foreign, could gain access to and monopolize in some if not most cases, market share. I wouldn’t have supported a leader with a background like that unless I thought I was entitled to “special privileges” the poor or disadvantaged should not recieve simply because I earned more or paid more in taxes. Y’know, possessing a belief that I’m worth more as a person because I’m better off financially? And lets make it so by ensuring that everyone gets their due services according to what they are financially worth, children, elderly and all, regardless of circumstances and birthplace… Right? For some, especially it seems, those who are affluent and advantaged… inequality works and they are drawn to support men like Harper.

#128 Minority on 05.04.11 at 2:15 pm

Anyone who voted for a minority government is either an idiot, an anarchist or a traitor. Quebec will ALWAYS vote against the Conservatives to weaken the Federal government. This forces Ottawa to buy votes in Quebec at the expense of the rest of Canada.

#129 The Phantom on 05.04.11 at 2:19 pm

#86 Utopia:”…most of your predictions are just phantoms…”

Phantoms? Did someone say Phantoms??? Could there really be some others like me out there???

the Phantom

#130 TheBigLebowski on 05.04.11 at 2:24 pm

Voting in the political system that has been created is like cheering for your favourite WWF wrestler . Both events are put in front of us for entertainment purposes only. When all parties are controlled by the same corporations, banks, and non profit think tanks, what difference does it make who the front men are? The people behind government never change, and are neither elected nor unelectable. The puppets are interchangeable but the puppet masters stay the same. I believe we should be given the option on our ballots of “none of the above”. But this choice may have beat out at least two of the three parties, completely discrediting the circus event that we call our political system. When all three doors presented to the public lead down the same hallway, isn’t that the definition of a false choice and fake democracy ? The front pitch man may change but the ruling minority behind government never lose their grip on control and are beyond the voters reach. Our government serves its master but if you think that master is the public you are sadly naive. Voting for one on the three parties only give credibility to their fake WWF political system. ‘None of the above’ would be the only choice I would support at this point.

#131 Timing is Everything on 05.04.11 at 2:48 pm

#49 Brian1
#72 Live Under Your Means

I received one also. Hmmm. ‘They’ know everything they could possibly need or want to know already, IMO. (except, maybe, whether we use 2 or 3 ply ass wipe). “It is the law.” :)

Now, will they really fine you (or worse) for not filling one out? I really do not know? Anybody else ‘not’ filing a census?

If you do not file, then you must have something to hide. Hmmm? My thought is to fill it out and (let them) move on. By not filing, you are a target (i.e. a red flag beside your name on a Guv database somewhere)

A basic survival skill. Blend in.

In short…try not to attract too much attention to yourself.

#132 Bill Gable on 05.04.11 at 3:06 pm

Anecdotal evidence of the disaster in Vancouver > two instances.

Ran into a Broadcaster, who through vagaries of life has had a hard time, but was in an upbeat mood – I asked why “Oh, I was just given a free condo at the Olympic Village”!
(*how nice – Vancouver credit is downgraded – and so they give away the property that brought them to the downgrade”). WOW!

Second: Cab driver, from France. We started talking about RE (main topic here) and he said that he was stupid and after his long marriage broke up he bought a small condo for 140 K, in Burnaby. “For the first year, or two, I was genius – it kept getting higher assessment numbers – and I got lulled into complacency – now the place is back under what I paid for it – I am kaput, and this $200,000 share of cab licence isn’t making me any money – because gas has gone up so fast…..”.

How many of these stories are being written in stress in this burg?

No wonder Psychiatrists and MD’s are handing out Rhovane, Paxil and Valium for the stressed masses.

This is an emerging disaster that will take that smug smile off Harper’s face, in a hurry.

Aggggh. So many people are in trouble, you can feel it, the jitters, something – maybe the over the top craziness for the stupid Hockey series is a way for folks to blow off steam.

#133 Mr. Plow on 05.04.11 at 3:26 pm

#123 Debtfree

Next time, vote with your feet.

#134 Karen Horney, MD on 05.04.11 at 3:28 pm

#110 Devore wrote “Second, most people reading do not post, and I would venture to say many do not read the comments”

True. But they simply don’t aware how many fascinating cases are there. Not all of course, those about housing and investing – such a bore.

#135 Mr. Plow on 05.04.11 at 3:30 pm

#53 Jody

Next time, vote with your feet.

#136 Mr. Plow on 05.04.11 at 3:36 pm

#71 Xnilo

Next time, vote with your feet.

#137 Mr. Plow on 05.04.11 at 3:39 pm

#66 bigrider

If you want to become a property owner, or own more property I say go for it. Cheap way to get the property in a default situation.

If you don’t wanna be left with the asset then it is not worth it.

8% is not enough either, I guess it all depends on the term you are lending but banks posted rates could be at 8% in a few years. If it is a longer term you need to be in at least the 10-12% range in my opinion.

#138 (low density) Sam on 05.04.11 at 3:45 pm

#79 Kevin on 05.04.11 at 9:13 am
Even if prices pull back 25%, again, so what?
___________
It’s sure been a wash for the Japanese for 30 years.

It’s sure been a wash for the US for 3 years.

the UK, Spain, Ireland … all nicely cleaned, scrubbed behind the ears … IOW, washed.

“doesn’t affect me” … and the houses that will sit empty, ready to host rats & roaches & squatters for the next 20 years; the pools where mosquitos will grow; the increased municipal taxes (do you think there may be reasons several US municipalities tried to declare bankruptcy?)

no, none of that affects you … you’re WASHED

; )

#139 Mr. Plow on 05.04.11 at 3:48 pm

#25 Paul

Unite the proletariat comrade!

#140 Mr. Plow on 05.04.11 at 3:50 pm

#13 Tim

Next time, vote with your feet.

#141 (low density) Sam on 05.04.11 at 3:51 pm

#66 bigrider
let me guess; somebody got robbed by Russ Whitney/Carlton Sheets/ Robert Allen and now they (the ones were robbed) want you to help with “nothing down” financing by taking back a note?

Even if it’s nothing like that I’d still try to avoid it; a real, big lender can spread risk out cheaply – you and I can’t – But if a brother or someone like that asked it would be damned hard.

#142 DM in C on 05.04.11 at 3:53 pm

#129 Anyone who voted for a minority government is either an idiot, an anarchist or a traitor.

Ah, the old fallback line, “you’re either WITH us or you’re AGAINST us.” How very predictable.

#143 tkid on 05.04.11 at 4:03 pm

Daystar, I’m not a conservative because I feel I can afford all of the extras in life and the poor can take a running jump. I like having universal health care, that there is UI, that our seniors get medical care, and for those that never planned for their future there will be CPP and OAS. This is absolutely part and parcel of being a Canadian.

But we as a country have overspent. We can’t afford to double CPP – in ten or twenty years we won’t be able to afford any CPP let alone double it. Health care is already badly underfunded. Etc yadda etc.

Plus there are massive infrastructure costs coming up as roads, bridges, water works, etc need to be rebuilt/replaced due to deterioration/age.

If we can get the deficit under control and eventually eliminate the national debt, the money put towards interest payments can go towards those institutions Canadians support. I am particularly worried about the financial situation in the States and I am worried what impact that will have on Canada if things down there go badly.

Voting for the conservatives wasn’t about robbing the widows and orphans so I could have more free stuff.

#144 betamax on 05.04.11 at 4:05 pm

#85 Don: “I for one welcome our new capitalist overlords. I’m thrilled that the CPC will have to wear the housing market melt and debt-driven destruction of the middle class without being able to blame it on “socialists and seperatists”. Good luck with that pain-free balanced budget by 2015!”

Well said on all counts.

As for Obama taking the blame for Bush’s policies — he brought that on himself by continuing the same policies with the same ex-Goldman Sachs henchmen in charge. Instead, Obama should have blamed Bush, admitted the problems and had a recession, and could be pulling out of it in time to run for a second term. Instead of admitting the problems, Obama thought he could fix them with a rousing speech. Big mistake.

#145 Tom Thumb on 05.04.11 at 4:14 pm

#133 Bill Gable said :

“This is an emerging disaster that will take that smug smile off Harper’s face, in a hurry.”

OMFG, you actually think Harper gives a rats ass about the peasants of Canada?

He doesn’t have to pretend to give a shit about Canadians for at least 4 years.

He’ll be far too busy dismantling your Canada and feeding the carcass to foreigners.

#146 eaglebay on 05.04.11 at 4:32 pm

#128 Daystar

You’re so full of it. Your predictions of the future with Harper as PM are wrong and have no basis in facts.
Conspiracy? Doom and gloom?
What a loser.
Why do you need so many words to say “I’m stupid”.
One example: tell me where one new jail is being build now in Canada. Duh.
Too many doomsayers and gloomers on this blog.
The Canadian Government will do just fine.
The present deficit was caused as much by the PC as the other parties in opposition.
Remember that the PC was a minority government and could not have done what they did without the consent of the opposition.
There, dummy.

#147 realpaul on 05.04.11 at 4:44 pm

The continued regugitation of campaign sloganeering is truly showing how deeply entrenched the paucity of intellectual scope and the tyranny of the left has engrained itself on the lazy, zany, wanna be leftists in this country. Doesn’t it ever get old….just repeating catch phrases and slogans you heard on the CBC?

When did hard working, well educated, families who don’t like drugs, crime, waste, nonsensical ideolgies or laziness become the enemy? Why is the taxpayer the enemy in Canada and a target for every flake who has declared himself as ‘too chicken to steal and too lazy to work’.

Instead of bitching about having nothing given to you…why not dig in and work for something to call your own? The sense of satisfaction may shock you out of your malcontent morass.

#148 Utopia on 05.04.11 at 4:51 pm

#110 Devore on #34 Utopia

First, you are grossly oversimplifying the spectrum of posters here, and not without bias.
————————————————————

It was a lame attempt at a joke. I give up.

#149 Annie the lemming watcher on 05.04.11 at 4:53 pm

Daystar #128
I think you’re absolutely right. Our ability to change direction after 4 years may be seriously impaired. Once Harper gets rid of the vote subsidy the elections will no longer belong to the people even if they decide to get off their collective butts and vote. Instead they will be bought, aka the US.

Harper’s breed are not the tories that we grew up with. These are cast from a different mould coming directly out of the US….the Chicago boys. If people aren’t able to picture what’s coming next why not they look to the states of Wisconsin and Michigan right now for the opening act.

The governors there are either in the process of or have already bought in laws which allow for a town to be declared in ‘a fiscal emergency.’ This is one of the most egregious new laws yet in terms of what it actually allows. Once a town is declared ‘in a fiscal emergency’ the governor is able to appoint whoever he likes, a corporation or an individual to control the town and dismiss all it’s elected representatives. Then he can slash jobs and arbitrarily cancel any contract he likes, teacher, firefighter, police anything negotiated by the previous administration.

So if you’re a town member it doesn’t matter who you voted, they’re gone! You’d think with a such a draconian law like this there’d be some pretty draconian evidence needed to prove the town was in a fiscal emergency. But no, the governor can simply declare it whenever he wants, dismiss the council and put Walmart in charge of town.

Don’t believe it’s coming here people? It’s the same ideology.

This isn’t ‘scaremongering.’ This is trying to wake people up that the Canada we know is going stateside before it’s too late. Sadly, we may have already lost our last opportunity.

#150 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 05.04.11 at 5:38 pm

FROM MIDDLE CLASS MIRACLE TO MIDDLE CLASS POOR HOUSE

#238 JohnnyBGood

I liked your item so I moved some of your lines to this post, giving you credit using quotation marks:

“We are increasingly becoming a nation of haves and have-nots in many spheres.

Government workers make far higher incomes than private sector workers doing comparable jobs.

Corporate executives make multiples of the average Canadian annual income.

There are many Canadians with a great deal of wealth. But there are many more Canadians with negative net worth.

Many can’t afford 2-million dollar homes, but an increasing number can’t even afford to eat.

There is the growing generational divide…Those with private health care v those who must suffer…our society is being divided along many fronts.”

Yes, exactly.

MIDDLE CLASS FANTASY

But please note the parallels between this 2011 state of economic disaster and what unfolded during the Great Depression (what I was writing about on Tuesday).

We’re both writing about the same thing: Class warfare then and now.

Then the public response, civil disobedience, was to trade protection outcomes and government interference.

Today, with no obvious protests, the issue is government marketplace interference, including massive debts. BUT there’s ALSO overwhelming consumer debt (in the Thirties there was no “easy consumer credit.” If you didn’t have the loot you didn’t buy the item. You had to save up for it).

So what lies in the future as 66 years of post-WW2 debt unwinds in the West?

Well, lots and lots of financial victims, including the vaunted middle class, millions of whom are now poor people just like their dirty 30s ancestors. So many are done like dinner in the US, Portugal, Spain, Greece; coming soon to other locales including the UK, Italy, France, Japan, China and Canada.

How bad will it get? Look to the US for an extreme example, a breakdown in the orderly process of life.
In Canada, we’ll see some of this deprivation, especially amongst the young indebted ones. But social programs will mitigate some of the suffering.

BUT IT’S NOT ALL A MIDDLE CLASS WASTELAND. THERE IS HOPE! AND THAT’S A BLESSING

Middle classers who’ve already bought their real estate and their other stuff and have either paid off debts or have means to get rid of them quickly will benefit from all this economic dross.

Eventually deflation will occur and they’ll have the scratch to add to their positions and become even richer.

They will also be the unwitting underwriters for the tattered masses who, one day, will renew themselves and rise up to borrow once again! Wash, rinse, repeat!

ON ANOTHER MATTER: JACKO’S NDP CAUCUS: A NATIONAL EMBARRASSMENT

That collection of spoiled Quebec baby-like closet Separatist brats with whom Steam-Bath Jack so proudly struts is a political Fifth Column if ever there was one.

Imagine having that group of crackers, everyone from a Las Vegas party babe to a young Commie, in YOUR party caucus sitting in the Parliament of Canada!! They represent half of the NDP caucus. HALF!!

Quebec voters organized for Jack, and his headlight-mesmerised gaggle of minstrels from outside Quebec, a ride to political oblivion. Give it about a year. Then all Hell breaks loose.

I think of Mississippi bluesman Willie Dixon’s classic piece “Back Door Man” when I think of the federal NDP. Listen carefully to the rendition by “The Doors.” It’s all about a multi-level royal screwing.

“You men eat your dinner
Eat your pork and beans
I eat more chicken
Than any man ever seen…
I’m a back door man…
The men don’t know
But the little girls understand (!)”

Could call this the Bath House Blues? Yeah, why not!

#151 Coho on 05.04.11 at 5:43 pm

But here’s the kicker: Four of their new MPs are inexperienced university kids that will now be hauling $150,000 per year salaries; one is a 19 year old communist and another is the barkeep at Carleton University’s pub, who spent the last week of the election away from her Quebec riding, because she was partying in Vegas. Oh, yes, and she can’t speak French. This tells you just as much about the NDP’s shamelessness as it does about the Pequiste idiots’ shamefulness– they want nothing but the keys to YOUR POCKETBOOKS.

It always makes me laugh when people question the “qualifications” of politicians, especially seasoned ones. Realtors and used car salesmen are qualified in the same way. If you can sell, you’re doing well. I guess selling is a “qualification”, but people expect more from those claiming to represent them.

Some fresh well intentioned, heart-in-the-right-place uncorrupted un-Ottawa-ized youngsters are a nice welcome. Unfortunately, they’ll be disillusioned in no time about how things really work. Who knows, they may actually help get some positive things done until their good intentions are seriously compromised after they gain some “experience”.

Having said that, TBL put it succinctly how we elect puppets who are beholden to their masters. And it doesn’t really matter who is elected because “all doors open into the same hall”. Well put. I think more people realize this than it appears, but it is easier to take the “blue pill” and go along with the pseudo-reality complete with its false hopes and dreams. And we’re seeing these dreams shattered as the middle class is decimated, but people still want to pretend.

As long as the banks/bankers, corporations and monarchies get an ever bigger portion of the pie, then our portion will continue to shrink. The pie contains only so much. As our portion shrinks and is hard pressed to fund our social net and infrastructure, we’ll be living more “above our means”. For the elite, though, this world is their playground, their oyster, their beach. – money galore — they always want more — and have lots of time and places to spend it. And the rest of us are the grains of sand that make their world possible. And WE live beyond our means? Tell me, don’t we supply them theirs?

#152 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.04.11 at 5:56 pm


Health Tip: If you can’t afford a doctor, go to an airport. You will get a free X-Ray and breast exam and, if you mention al-Quada, you’ll get a free colonoscopy.

All free and courtesy of the TSA and DHS (the Kanayjun version)!
*
#39 Tim — “Harper Strategists Taking a Page from Republican Playbook”

A major reason why we’re headed downhill. Neocon idealists with world supremacy their only goal, but it’s not gonna happen.

#43 Sharpen The Saw — “….I got it twice as bad…he’s my MP, too.” — My sympathies, or Sympathy For The Devil!

#50 Patz — “These guys are to economics as the CIA are to finding terrorists, i.e. takes them a while.”

Esp. terrorists who belong to The Toilet! Garth ran and won for decades under Stevie, and he’s all better now he’s outta polytix!

#71 Xnilo — “Third and last, four years later and it is election time, . . . Harper the eternal strategiest will be remembered as the last prime minister of Canada.”

See response to ##117 Only The Bankers Laugh. Puts Canada in roughly the same position as the US. Unexpectedly large changes coming soon!

#109 Steven Rowlandson — “. . . world of continueing sky high debts and deficits.” — Which is precisely where TPTB (the IMF, banxters, etc.) want us to be — continual, life-long perpetual debt while they become wealthier. However, all things must eventually change course.

#117 OnlyTheBankersLaugh — “So, did Bush really get blamed for the nightmare in USA? Seems like Obama is stuck with it and so, too, could the next NDP or Lib to take office in 4.5 years when we’re sick of Harper’s crap.”

Don’t forget the IMF (Rothschilds, Rockefellers, etc.), said last week the US, in its current form, won’t be around after 2016 which co-incidentally, is when the election is. Possibly flat broke by then.

#124 Debtfree — Good description of dubya version 2 — Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely. Reminds me of this pic from a year or two ago, in the Florida Everglades when a snake bit off more than it could chew (a ‘gator), which is also an apt description of horny house busters. Both animals died, but Harper now has a majority to do as he pleases, and if that means to screw the middle-class up (jobs heading to Chindia), that’s what he will do. Adios democracy! Viva fascism!
*
The real Harper — Harper 2.0 This time with a majority, so he will do as he pleases, and Beginning of the end for Kannaduhh as we knew it.

#153 Behavioral Finance on 05.04.11 at 6:03 pm

Really, so ETFs magically held their value in this market sell off.

#154 Sail1 on 05.04.11 at 6:06 pm

Showdown looming between Bay Street and Main Street

A showdown is under way between the country’s major financial institutions and securities regulators over the way banks prefer to resolve disputes with aggrieved customers.

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/05/04/showdown-looming-between-bay-street-and-main-street/

#155 BB on 05.04.11 at 6:31 pm

#124 “He will likely drive Quebec out of canada …oh canada.”

Let’s hope so. I doubt it though. Quebec likes all the free money they get from confederation.

Like New Brunswick? — Garth

#156 Brad in Van on 05.04.11 at 6:49 pm

Oasis? Where is Oasis? The CAD has been taking a BEATING against the USD in the past 48 hours. Where are you, OASIS?

#157 Mr. Reality on 05.04.11 at 6:50 pm

#126 Snowman on 05.04.11 at 1:38 pm

Indeed, also the average price up 9.1%, looks like you’ve missed that part.

Classic sign of a bubble snowman. Rising prices on lower sales volumes. Remember this for next time.

Mr. R.

#158 BPOE on 05.04.11 at 7:03 pm

Folks, prices will NEVER go down in Vancouver, folks! Folks, you shouldn’t believe what you read in the papers, folks, folks, folks. Just because the Vancouver Sun reports that prices have gone down in some areas does not mean that anything bad is happening. It is only allowing for other people to see these AWESOME deals and they will be lining up around the block to buy them at these CRAZY low prices of like $850,000 ‘n shit. You should understand that economics do not apply in Vancouver because we don’t even have an economy here, except for drugs, a dying film industry, and dirty whores on every other corner. Hey, its the best place on Earth! I got my anal warts burned off. Sales are really down, sure, but that is only because we are going into the Spring months, and Spring is always the worst season for real estate, except for Summer, Fall, and Winter. You’ll see. By this time tomorrow sales will be UP UP UP UP UP by like 150% or something like that probably so. I got ’em at that group party at that bathhouse F212 Steam Vancouver. It is a very respectable place and all, except for anal warts, so don’t judge me. I’m totally back to normal now except for the steady drainage coming from my bum. Sales will be back to normal, folks, so don’t panic, folks! Never mind that China is imploding right now. We already have all the rich Chinese living here, so they will take care of us once they decide to buy. I sure hope they don’t see this, though!

http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2011/04/beijing-house-prices-down-26-month-on.html

#159 DARLENE on 05.04.11 at 7:08 pm

My god, the fear and rhetoric of politics is getting to be too much. Harper will not make the world stop. He’s been riding the middle because he knew he wouldn’t get a majority without it.

I can guarantee you that if there is anything that bad it will be social. Gays, abortion, death penalty are only issues to the religous fundalmentalists. All those bills will be private member bills and Harper will make sure he’s not there for the vote. He’s not stupid, he will keep his hands clean.

If those votes actually happen he is guaranteeing political wilderness for the Conservative party.

And just in case I’m a Liberal. I fundalmentally disagree with a lot of choices the Conservatives have made. I have different priorities. For f**k sakes the house isn’t even sitting yet. Can we please tone down the rhetoric.

#160 BPOE on 05.04.11 at 7:10 pm

Or, I don’t want the rich Chinese to see this either! That would be very bad if they saw this site!

http://www.topix.com/forum/ca/british-columbia/TOD1PJ6BKH1G4GPQ4/p68

#161 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 05.04.11 at 7:11 pm


Thought For The Day: “Increases in prison spending [in the U.S.] average twice as high as increases in education spending.” — National Criminal Justice Commission, February, 1996″. wrh.com. Harper is building more prisons? What for?
*
4:12 clip Sensationalism at its best — dollar crashing, which means the prices of everything else surge.

Syria “The pro-Israel western powers are preparing ground in Syria for another Libya-style invasion.”

6:42 clip US Fed policies driving global inflation. 3:17 clip Buddy, can you spare a trillion?

Humor ObL last Facebook entry. Comments are good. Latest leaked pic of ObL. It may be a fake! Bring Out Yer Dead pix!

2:17 clip The WH is outta money, so it’s suing banks now.

Gropedown Coming to Malls? “That will be the end of retail.” wrh.com.

0:42 clip US refused to take ObL seven months prior to 9-11. Whose on First? I Don’t Know!

Julian Assange Pot – Kettle – Noir.

1:48 clip Beyong the debt ceiling explained (outer space).

Remember CC? “Al Gore and his carbonazis pretend Fukushima does not exist because they can’t fix it and can’t make a fast buck off of it, so despite three harsh winters in a row they are back to bribing the presstitutes of the corporate media to wave global warming at you as THE environmental danger so they can demand carbon taxes from you.” wrh.com. That’s the whole point of GW — to impose new taxes. Ask David Rockefeller.

The Trumpmeister “Longest Period of Speechlessness on Record, Experts Say.”

Gold Big Brother wants it.

Brain Cancer One case cured by marijuana.

EU Banxters there are going after their own. China Is Geithner serious? Or is this The Marx Brothers in Duck Soup?

US Govt. Insider Headline covers it.

#162 BPOE on 05.04.11 at 7:14 pm

Or this one!

http://suckreport.com/search/vancouver/8

#163 Hoof - Hearted on 05.04.11 at 7:15 pm

#153 Coho

You missed the point of the BRAND LABEL aka NDP

We were all young once…..but NDP ‘ers stay retarded.

I have rarely met young NDPer that stayed an NDP er….The NDP party tends to have a siren call for easily programmed idealistic 20 somethings.

That’s how Jim Jones got his start.

Most of them grow up…the rest turn into career Cadillac Socialists / Politicians who “massage” the truth.

#164 BPOE on 05.04.11 at 7:15 pm

http://suckreport.com/search/vancouver/6

#165 Daystar on 05.04.11 at 7:32 pm

#148 eaglebay on 05.04.11 at 4:32 pm

I’ve got no problems admitting when I’m wrong, none at all. I’d be the first to switch my vote, sigh relief, swallow my pride and look back saying, “man I was really out of it! What led me down such a crazy, stupid point of view?” I don’t want this nation’s services to be dramatically cut or sold off outright only to watch foreign corps (domestic one’s too) come in and show us how to “make profit” through monopolies at the grotesque expense of our poor/disadvantaged.

There’s just one small problem, however. I remain unconvinced entirely that I’m wrong or crazy. As they say, we do not yet know how the Harper government will perform as a majority and should I sadly be right or sane and things get ugly in this nation directly as a result of having a sellout leader who really did have a hidden agenda I’ve laid out for you, how will you feel or think about things then, especially so, about yourself for supporting this nations own demise and running anyone who opposed Harper as crazy and stupid?

Its like this, if haven’t quite caught on. For the losers of this election to not wish the Conservatives the best in terms of the best they can be for the good of Canada is a product of ego and not much more. To wish that the Conservatives do as terrible job as they can at the expense of Canada because they were convinced their chosen opposition party could do so much better is also a product of ego and not much else. I get it far more than you give me credit for.

But, what you don’t get and its obvious, is that it is fear that I have for the future of Canada now and I’ve laid out why. We just elected a majority PM with a track record of being a president to an organization for 6 years in private life with one true objective… greater Canadian market share for the corporations it represents: U.S. big oil. U.S. medicare insurance. U.S. Gun manufacturers (NRA) and defense contractors. U.S. grain handlers. Canadian/U.S. media. Food manufacturers, etc.

The NCC has a long history of being the most powerful lobby group in Canada representing foreign interests. Any way its done is on the table, be it challenges through the courts or parachuting their best pick for politician to pass new bills that change the laws in this nation for the same cause. Anything that can be done to that end as long as its legal… increase market share for those represented by this organization is the goal and any way imaginable to fulfill that goal is on the table including getting their organization’s leader elected as PM.

Really, are you naive as to believe that organizations such as the NCC do not exist and wish for nothing more than to weaken substantially this nation, perhaps balkanizing solely to make a buck it if its a means to an end? Do you seriously believe foreign interests don’t and won’t try to weaken this nation in any way they can to make a buck? Dude, if you don’t think such organizations exist with such motives, your the one who is crazy.

#166 T.O. Bubble Boy on 05.04.11 at 7:32 pm

@ #103 Two-thirds:

If interest rates are set to rise this year, should I wait to purchase preferred bank shares until the rate hikes are finished?

Or are the monthly distributions worth taking a for-sure capital gain loss?

This would be for an RESP with several years to go before withdrawal.

A) Preferred Shares really should only be held in non-registered accounts (for the dividend tax credit).

B) Preferred Shares should be a part of your *fixed income* portfolio… if the RESP is several years from being needed, you aren’t going to get much growth from those shares.

C) If you are expecting a capital loss, a non-registered account is better (since it can offset capital gains). RESP/RRSP losses cannot be claimed as a capital loss.

#167 Hoof - Hearted on 05.04.11 at 7:58 pm

Fed NDP……already at it….

NDP deputy leader doubts bin Laden photos exist

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/05/04/pol-mulcair-osama.html

gee ..and they came ” this close” to being in power

#168 S.B. on 05.04.11 at 8:04 pm

To the bullion nuts: gold and silver are not money replacements, they are not hedges, rather they are simple commodities in a bubble.

If this a considered store of money I want no part of it; your “investment” is being savaged:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p68104988608

#169 Not a puppert on 05.04.11 at 8:13 pm

Hoof – Hearted on 05.04.11 at 7:58 pmFed NDP……already at it….

NDP deputy leader doubts bin Laden photos exist

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/05/04/pol-mulcair-osama.html

gee ..and they came ” this close” to being in power
———————————————————-

That’s why I like jack. Unlike you Hoof – Hearted , jack has the ability to think for himself. You my friend drop to your knees and swallow the white load of lies without choking on it. You are a product of propaganda. You have been re-educated well. lol.. P.s men who lived in a CAVE from the other side of the world attacked the strongest milliary country in the world. Hiters propagandist said it’s better to tell a big lie then a small lie. Men in a cave would fit into the big lie? THINK about it. ah forget it . Watch out for the easter bunny hoof hearted I hear he wants to attack Canada.

#170 Nicky Bouts on 05.04.11 at 8:15 pm

Garth,
Way behind again, you mention in another article that a smart investment strategy is to take out a HELOC to invest. Then say interest only payments are tax deductible. This is not the case for all HELOCs I take it because then they’d all essentially be Prime Minus. Is what you’re saying the case for HELOCs used for investments only? And if so, is some registration for your HELOC/Investments required?

Thanks as always!

The interest on all borrowings made for investment purposes (to buy something which produces income or a taxable capital gain) is deductible from taxable income. So a HELOC used to buy, say, ETFs yields tax-deductible interest, regardless of the loan rate. No registration of investments is required to claim this deduction, but the interest paid must be documented. — Garth

#171 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 05.04.11 at 8:15 pm

76 Utopia – The 50% “commodity related” statement Mel makes looks to be verified by your statscan link for
exports. Run the total for ag/energy/forest and you will
see it matches the manufacturing. Industrial materials could probably be split in some fashion between the two, but much of it would be commodity related (metals, ores, alloys ???)

As you state, a larger slice of the economy stays in
Canada, with many other sectors, including some
manufacturing, much of which would also use Canadian
commodities. I’ll see what I can find.

#172 S.B. on 05.04.11 at 8:16 pm

New Toronto king west condo discounted from builder. Building was completed over 6 months ago. Why no buyers?

“Remaining Inventory Sale From Developer On 5 Remaining Units, $15K Already Discounted From Price/Free Locker/Dev Costs Capped @$0*”

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10640480&PidKey=-1777185698

#173 OkanaganInvestor on 05.04.11 at 8:19 pm

#63 Jody

I wish we have a leader that put Canada first. I would vote for him.
Check out this excerpt from the article below. You’re not far off if at all in your opinion.

“Stephen Harper seeks majority to dissolve Canada in favor of North American Union
Sunday, April 17th, 2011
The secretive agreement was signed by U.S. President Barack Obama and Canadian minority Prime Minister Stephen Harper in Washington on Friday February 4, 2011 that aimed to remove Canada’s sovereignty. The secretive deal between Obama and Harper will establish a new border AROUND Canada and the United States. And it will begin the work of REMOVING the border between Canada and the U.S. in order to form a new corporate controlled (fascist) America called the North American Union (NAU)”.
http://presscore.ca/2011/?p=2250

I got this first from http://www.whatreallyhappened.com

#174 eddy on 05.04.11 at 8:46 pm

Tim said-Get ready for a diminished CBC

I frequent alternate news blogs, sometimes i get targeted CBC web adds ie, the site knows where i am- it says-watch the CBC evening new with peter mansbridge, and a photo of peter, smiling; now, i went to the blog to escape peter mansbridge, here my tax dollars are paying a news blog to tell me to turn on my tv,

also, CBC newsworld is only on satellite and cable, taxpayers who have neither subsidize it, not fair

Elvis had the right idea, shoot the TV

#175 Kurt on 05.04.11 at 8:52 pm

Daystar:

Thank you for your posts today, lengthy as they may be. Just as you do, I hope you are wrong, but there is a non-zero probability of you being right. We should invest our money accordingly, and keep a close eye on things.

#176 Stupid CON voter on 05.04.11 at 8:57 pm

#63 Jody

I wish we have a leader that put Canada first. I would vote for him.
Check out this excerpt from the article below. You’re not far off if at all in your opinion.

“Stephen Harper seeks majority to dissolve Canada in favor of North American Union
Sunday, April 17th, 2011
The secretive agreement was signed by U.S. President Barack Obama and Canadian minority Prime Minister Stephen Harper in Washington on Friday February 4, 2011 that aimed to remove Canada’s sovereignty. The secretive deal between Obama and Harper will establish a new border AROUND Canada and the United States. And it will begin the work of REMOVING the border between Canada and the U.S. in order to form a new corporate controlled (fascist) America called the North American Union (NAU)”.
http://presscore.ca/2011/?p=2250

I got this first from http://www.whatreallyhappened.com
———————————————————-

How dare you talk about Harper a man will will make Canada better by joining the NAU. So Canada won’t be Canada? Who wants to be a stupid Canadian anyway? Thank-you Harper . I know Canada will look nothing like Canada after your done.

#177 Daystar on 05.04.11 at 9:03 pm

#145 tkid on 05.04.11 at 4:03 pm

A reasoned response (except the deficit part, we elected a government that jacked spending by 30% over 5 years not counting stimulus spending, in the backdrop of overestimated GDP, lower GST and corporate taxes to produce expected shrunken tax revenues and major red ink even with a goosed housing market. We could have done it much differently and why all the war?) I hope it works out for us but have serious doubts that it will for reasons within and outside Canada’s control. Yup, I’m a doomer :).

#156 DARLENE on 05.04.11 at 7:08 pm

Its not rhetoric. The election is over, the cards have been laid and played. Its more like a warning, Darlene.

As for RE in Canada readers, well… the only houses really flipping notably in the cities are the ones that the wealthy don’t need to borrow money for to buy. Household spending is maxed, and credit through CMHC has grown more expensive. Valuations rising, sales falling, its the product of the tail end of a wealth effect, I believe with valuations hitting zenith heights coupled with fewer credit driven buyers due to unaffordability, a point well presented by other blog dogs on this site. Supply/demand will decide the markets only to a point. Unaffordability is pretty much national with interest rates being the key driver to a major housing correction in Canada.

Will valuations crumble if interest rates rise in a credit driven market? (I love those rhetorical questions) Is there a supply side glut nationally in Canada? (this question is tougher to answer than one thinks but I believe there is an oversupply) When rates do rise is anyone’s guess (so I’ll take mine, I’m thinking Q4) but until the U.S. dollar rises relative to world currencies or commodity valuations fall (decreasing the money supply giving Carney room to raise rates) or… the U.S. raises interest rates at home propping up their dollar, interest rates will remain where they are now. Same goes for mortgage term loans. No big need to borrow in the bond markets, demand is met and rates stay low… for now.

Personally, I think commodity valuations will fall before the U.S. dollar makes gains and I base that on Japanese economical fallout with numbers coming in July that won’t be pretty, casting a new light on their old debt woes. Japan’s major debt problem was easier to swallow with trade surplus’s but deficits are more likely and that will make markets nervous. Has to. Couple this with oversupply in commodities (except oil, I don’t expect oil to retreat severely like it did last time, a $60 – $70 dollar bottom perhaps) triggered by a slowdown in Asian exports, especially base metals, and it will drop our dollar low enough for Carney to raise rates even with modest inflation caused by softening housing countering a lower Canadian dollar, I think, by the fall of this year without any major change in U.S. monetary policy.

The end of Q2 combined with world uncertainty could see the U.S. dollar gain some strength and its effects would also come into play in July, worth noting. Teh earliest I would think Canada could see a rate hike is August but I’m thinking it could take til’ October. We could see rates raised by the end of Obama’s term in the U.S. but I’m skeptical. I don’t think their financial system is ready for it and thats what I see shaping up for now.

#178 Cellar Dwellar on 05.04.11 at 9:04 pm

@#171 Not a puppert?
What the [email protected]#K is a Puppert ? Is that a cross between a puppy and a jerk? There are so many spelling mistakes in your comment I dont know whether to laugh or cry.(UK Love Calling was right! We are stupid.)
Join “Jody” in the socialist love fest. Perhaps you two can have children while you waste the days away discussing the next conspiracy and protest.
Dont forget, welfare cheques are paid for by the tax paying, law abiding, workers not the welfare leeches also known as anarchists.
PS. Hiter is spelled Hitler and his propagandist was called Goebbels.
Perhaps your’d like to kneel and Goebbels some of the great white truth? Close your eyes and pretend it’s Lenin.

#179 Cellar Dwellar on 05.04.11 at 9:14 pm

@#177 STUPID CON VOTER
Uuhhh, ok .
Ater scratching my heading for all of 10 seconds I realized that JODY has a new name ( or is that “knew name” Jody?).
The stupidity, the insults, the missing words, and the rambling prose all scream “JODY”

Your still an idiot by another name.
How’s the civics class coming. Need help with your homework? Ask your anarchist boyfriend(or girlfriend). Maybe they can spell ” Democracy” for you.

#180 eltabarnacos on 05.04.11 at 9:15 pm

“Stephen Harper seeks majority to dissolve Canada in favor of North American Union
______________
Ignatieff and Layton are traitors too that would dissolve the country or else they would have hammered Harper about it during the debate, right?

___________
SB
To the bullion nuts: gold and silver are not money replacements, they are not hedges, rather they are simple commodities in a bubble.

If this a considered store of money I want no part of it; your “investment” is being savaged:
___________
Zimbabwe have trillion dollar notes that can’t buy an ounce of silver, is that what you call “money”?

Gold in a bubble? Obviously you dont get it. Helloooooooo, there’s a global crisis going on around the world! There seems to have no end to all kinds of crisis, printing of money, bailouts and governments failures, its paper against real value!
What side are you on?

#181 Cellar Dwellar on 05.04.11 at 9:22 pm

Hoof Hearted !
Buddy. You posted your Richmond Fire comment and link in yesterdays comments.
I was thinking the exact same thing.
Brand new, almost finished condo complex BURNS. Shades of the 1980’s all over again.
Sayyyy, Where’s BPOE?
BPOE . do you smell like gas?
Sly Dog.

#182 renters rule on 05.04.11 at 9:29 pm

DAYSTAR:
The ol’ hairband song, “don’t know what you’ve got, til’ its gone…” applies here.

THE OL’ HAIRBAND SONG?????

That happens to be a line from the classic : Big Yellow Taxi, written by the one of the best songwriters who has ever lived, Canada’s own Joni Mitchell. Sheesh, your cred has gone completely in the toi-toi as far as I am concerned.

#183 Utopia on 05.04.11 at 9:49 pm

#173 Dark Sad Monster Bunny

“76 Utopia – The 50% “commodity related” statement Mel makes looks to be verified by your statscan link for
exports”.
———————————————————-

Right you are, and that is a good point. When I looked at it again this evening and was crunching numbers I could get closer to the point Mel was making. I had just never heard the point made as he suggested it. Seems to depend on what is being counted and how much processing of base materials is included in the numbers.

Let me know what you come up with.

#184 jess on 05.04.11 at 9:49 pm

Harper is building more prisons? What for?

…..cheap labour to build war toys

next libraries shuttered and privatized? Good item on this happening in the usa.

http://www.onthecommons.org/all-hail-public-library

#185 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 05.04.11 at 10:22 pm

182 Utopia – I found many variants by googling
“Canadian economy by sector” (results included “the
investors friend” and other statscan pages) but your link
was good for comparing the last few years. Big swing in the total from 2008 to 2009, but also in the main and
subcategories from year to year as well.

#186 TheBigLebowski on 05.04.11 at 11:23 pm

170 S.B.
look at the 11 year chart on both metals in all major currencies. Speak not of what you have no clue.

#187 S.B. on 05.05.11 at 7:48 am

#188 TheBigLebowski on 05.04.11 at 11:23 pm

The charts do not lie. The metals markets are simply commodities controlled by big players. Lead, follow, or get out of the way.

SLV from 20, to almost 50, and now back to $37 in the pre-market today. Believe me, I know.

#188 GregW, Oakville on 05.05.11 at 2:59 pm

Thanks #28 Nostra. It finally did work for me too.