Those who love bating bears love coming here. Despite falling sales and rising debt, they see every monthly housing price advance as a repudiation of my deity status. I could smite them, of course, but where’s the fun in watching realtors incinerate in a 600-million volt thunderflash? Besides, the smell…
Instead, let’s just finish this tempestuous week with some reminders of why residential real estate is one of the riskiest asset classes you could choose. As I showed yesterday, investing in an apartment REIT beats the pants off buying an actual condo. Investing in a multi-family building is vastly superior than buying your spouse her dream home – at least from a financial point of view (you’ll understand that when you recover). And the best possible strategy sometimes (like now) is to wait. Buy assets that pay you money instead of costing, and bide your time. Things will soon change.
Point 1: In case you missed it, interest rates just advanced in Europe. Yeah, yeah, only a quarter point, but it was significant. These days the continent is surviving largely on wisps of past glory, borrowed money, bravado, protests and (in the case of the French and Italians) flirty love and wine. So with Ireland, Greece and now Portugal bankrupted, and rate jump is serious news – it makes debts harder to pay and stifles what little growth there is.
Still, it happened. First time since the financial crisis. And it underscores a theme I’ve outlined for you – price inflation concurrent with asset deflation. Rates must rise to try and cool off raging energy and food costs, but at the same time they depress crumbling housing values. This should be a wakeup call to every irritating poster who claims the government ‘won’t allow’ rates to rise because higher mortgages would cream their cash flow. Guess what? Get ready.
Point 2: The virgins are starting to get it. While Re/Max’s shameless, groundless and false ‘report’ this week – the one saying first-time buyers were driving housing markets – got wall-to-wall media coverage, the important news slid by.
This was contained in an RBC poll (unlike Re/Max, based on actual research) clearly showing the virgins are quickly stuffing it back into their pants. Check this out:
“RBC’s annual home ownership poll found that 55 per cent of respondents aged 18 to 34 said it makes sense to delay a home purchase until next year. That’s 10 percentage points more than the national average for all age groups.
“Meanwhile, about half of young people who have already delved into home ownership, responded that their mortgage is eating up too much of their income — suggesting their peers may have good reason to wait.”
This should have every realtor quaking. It’s a massive departure from previous thinking among the kiddie house porn set, and given the unbridled influence of social media these day, a way of thinking that will spread unchecked. And it is so justified. As I have been saying with nauseating repetitiveness, there are consequences to children who have no money buying houses with just 5% down and at prices which will only drop and with loans that will only augment.
Given this emerging peer consensus, along with the swell-deserved death of the 35-year mortgage, it all but guarantees the housing correction will be even bigger news than the Re/Max imitation of Goebbels.
In fact, that correction is old news in parts of the country. Chris, who has a condo in Calgary’s inner-city hood of Connaught gives us these numbers:
- In January 2006, the Average sale price in Connaught, Calgary was $202,130 and the Median sale price was $184,000.
- Fast forward just six months, and in July 2006, the Average sale price in Connaught was $290,662 and the Median sale price was $282,500.
- Fast forward again to February 2007, and the Average sale price in Connaught had peaked at $382,158, while the Median sale price was $294,000.
- Fast forward yet again to April 2007, and the Average sale price in Connaught had dropped to $351,594, while the Median sale price had just peaked at $345,000.
- By March of 2009, the Average sale price in Connaught had plummeted to $258,972, while the Median sale price would plummet to $235,650 by April 2009.
- Which leaves us where we are today (March 2011) with the Average sale price at $285,703, and the Median sale price at $260,000.
In other words, despite the much-celebrated uptick in Cowtown values, today you can buy a condo at 2006 prices. And that’s with $108 oil.
Point 3: When an academic and a corporate finance guy are allowed to write an article in the Toronto Star saying real estate can be riskier than junior mining stocks, well, it’s time to turn in your MLS decoder ring. And this is aimed squarely at the same miserably indebted virgins that RBC is discovering – those with little equity and lots of debt. Canada’s own growing subprime nation.
What happens (sez these experts) when someone buys a house with 10% down (a whopping amount these days) and 90% financing at just 3%?
“Amazingly, the equity in the house has now become dramatically more risky than before. The equity is now three times as risky as the overall market rather than 30 per cent as risky. This is more risky than an investment in nickel mining stocks or Internet start-ups. Does this family understand that its net worth has been “banked” on something this risky? Does its financial adviser understand this? While it is true that the family will pay off the mortgage over 25 or 30 years, for very long periods of time debt levels are high and therefore the effective riskiness of the equity is very high, as millions of families across Florida, California and Arizona found out, sadly.”
There is no doubt how this will evolve. The only mystery’s why so few can see.
173 comments ↓
The blindness is called anchoring, “duh, like, it’s always been this way, and you are really like a downer doooood saying the way it is ain’t so.” Problem is they don’t understand the anchor is tied to a millstone and the other end of the rope is around their neck.
Sent my buddy this site two weeks ago. He read, he listened, he sold today in the Lower Mainland. Renter now.
Good job, JB !! If only I could convince MY wife!
Housing shortage in Vancouver? I think not, craiglist has 7 pages of rentals available, dated today.
The housing crash continues to get worse as first time buyers step back. You can see this happening as sales have dropped for TEN MONTHS IN A ROW. Realtors who post on this blog are very worried and scared for good reason. Drive around the GTA and all you see is countless for sale signs with very little sold which explains the 10 MONTHS IN A ROW OF FALLING SALES.
Help ME! My wife wants granite and stainless. We’ve been waiting 3 years and now I get afraid when I see the kitchen knives missing. You think a kevlar unitard might save my life when she goes off the rails? She demands to know when Oakville prices will correct 10%.
Desperate …
Thanks for these last 2 days. Some good perspective on real estate, it’s not all that bad for everyone.
Wait…junior miners are NOT unduly ‘risky’ IF you know what you’re doing. Problem is, people are Canadians and therefore they have NO IDEA what they’re doing, have never been trained to manage their own finances and are TERRIFIED of risk…
Without vision, the people perish
I’ll never be able to sell my condo now as more units have came up for sale. Many of them are empty as owners are unable to rent or sell. I bought the place to live in and not flip it. Due to lost job I will need to sell it. Worst part of all is it can not be rented for cash flow positive. If unable to sell I will be forced to walk away from it. Looks like many flippers are going to lose their shirts like day traders in the stock market. When did condos/houses become a stock market? T.O has thousands of condos for rent/sell and majority sit empty. To think I stood in line to lose money. I’ll never be ale to sell.
Simply amazing since March 18th, I have not heard ONE peep out of the RE pumper crowd about the potential effects of amortizations being reduced from 35 to 30 years…
I follow as many RE pumpers as I can on Twitter… Last 3 weeks has been only sunshine and lollipops, in fact lately they’re louder than ever, even being so naive as to predict coming booms in the places that are about to bust!
Not….One….Peep
Hi Garth, are you ghost writing for Canadian Business? :)
Canadian Business Article
It’s no mystery why so few can see the pending train wreck. Ignorance among the masses explains this mystery nicely.
Oh man, buy that Hummer driver a cigar.
This post today sums up a friend I will call Jim.
He lives across the way from our rental in Maui.
60 ish and a year from retiring in what sounds like middle level civil servant from Oregon.
The condo he was hoping to close on, has hit a snag.
Two years, he has been trying to dump this condo, and he thought his short sale was a done deal.
NOPE. Robo signing grabbed him by the wallet.
Now he has a pile of mouldy frame on an island that will be hit by a wave of garbage from Japan, that he can’t afford to carry, and he can’t sell.
He knows in his heart, he might be stuck with the old walk away scenario.
He came over today after the visit with the ‘attorney’. He looked like he hd just watched the Oscars.
I felt for this guy. He thought he was being smart – and he saved and scrimped and probably got into the blender drinks and took the plunge – well now he is cooked.
Cooked like the thousands of people across North America that thought it was “Money for nothing”.
Now back to your Iphone, and your twitter account.
Oh, and that bearded gent that just drove by you on the 401, in the hummer isn’t laughing because the old tape of Jay Nelson was funny.
It’s because you may as well laugh.
Send in the Clowns.
Winnipeg had it’s best March ever. Average price was $255,000, a good 10% from a year ago. Another 100% return on a $20,000 investment.
http://www.winnipegrealtors.ca/press/Apr11pr/Apr11pr.pdf
Illusory. Might suit you. — Garth
Nothing Selling In GTA:
“The housing crash continues to get worse as first time buyers step back. You can see this happening as sales have dropped for TEN MONTHS IN A ROW. Realtors who post on this blog are very worried and scared for good reason. Drive around the GTA and all you see is countless for sale signs with very little sold which explains the 10 MONTHS IN A ROW OF FALLING SALES.”
People may get the impression that the sales rate is decreasing month after month, but they’re not – at least not in Toronto (yet).
It’s been 10 months of year-over-year declines.
Just wanted to clear that up.
If you thought Point Grey RE could get any weirder, it appears there are now signs of a flipping frenzy occurring. As my step-mom awaits her check for her recent sale at 11th and Camosun for 2.5 million, the home across the street which was cited in moms listing as being recently listed at 1.8 and sold at 2.5 is-wait for it- back on the market today with a fresh price of 2.88 million and offers to be taken shortly apparently. The ad states that they can build you your dream home which sells by the way, for over 5 million.
Up up and away!
Many will be surprised on how high interest rates will go. Do any of you remember getting 23% from Canada Savings Bonds?
I bought several years ago…I think my cost was reasonable so I’ll probably hang on. I certainly don’t think I could afford anything if I were looking today.
Ahhh, but that’s what debt is for, isn’t it? (Sarcasm)
Here’s the full documentary I.O.U.S.A. (one nation under debt). Is this Canada’s destiny?
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2011/04/07/i-o-u-s-a-one-nation-under-debt-in-stress/
Connaught is my former ‘hood. A community within “Honest” Joe Clark’s last federal riding before the winding-down of the former Progressive Conservative Party.
The pricing is still amazing, considering the sheer number of underwhelming properties in that portion of the Beltline. Lots of late-70s era buildings exhibiting all the workmanship and roll-your-eyes defects expected of boomtime construction. A mish-mash of rentals (many are Boardwalk REIT) and condos. There are still significant numbers of vacant condo units in new towers. Predominantly immigrant families and young professionals. Significant dumpster diving by the homeless. Mount Royal is immediately to the south.
I remember a concrete apartment conversion back in the 02-03 period. 700-odd square feet starting @ $69k… worth not a penny more. That same building has had two full exterior jobs since the initial conversion. The parge coat was literally falling off in chunks.
Hmmm… MLS has one of the larger units for sale for $264.5k. No photos of the unit!
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10516192&PidKey=947633100
At 5% down and a 5 year open at 3.8% and a 30 year amortization, a 250k mortgage is ~$1165 per month. Rent for a similar unit in a nearby Boardwalk building would be about the same, possible a tad less. The seller still wants essentially triple for what the conversion sold for 8 to 9 years ago.
Everyone else’s mileage may vary.
#9 – xindai: thank you for posting the link to “Canadian Business” magazine – that aritcle was EXCELLENT!
…you know the end is near when you see more and more articles/statistics saying that “the good time are over”.
I’m looking forward to the day when I can finally tell everyone “…I told you so!”. It’s been a long and painful wait, but I think the wait is just about over!
Chill!
P.S. A co-worker of mine tells me that things in Richmond, B.C. have certainly slowed-down since March 18th for properties at the lower-end of the scale. He’s thinking of selling and buying-up, but with a “subject to sale” clause required in any offer he makes, it could be while. You can see where this “domino effect” will slowly filter-up to higher-priced properties.
Kevin in Winnipeg:
Keep it, I don’t want any house at any price in your area. No thank you Saskatchewan. No thank you Alberta.
In my retirement years, there will be plenty of pretty homes sitting in comfortable regions to buy from. Buy well, and invest the difference.
#15 HouseBuster on 04.07.11 at 11:50 pm
Many will be surprised on how high interest rates will go. Do any of you remember getting 23% from Canada Savings Bonds?
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Are you on drugs???
Prime may hit 5-6% in the next 2-3 years, but highly doubt beyond that.
LOL! I live in Surrey, and that photo of the butt of that bus I saw driving around a few times. I LOL’d and thought that would make a nice photo for Garth’s blog…. now look where it is! =)
I live in a townhouse right across the street from that new Mirra development. Never checked out.
@#12 Kevin in Winipeg:
Speaking of illusions, at least six houses houses that I looked at in March in Winnipeg were actually empty and looked like flippers to me. Money put into kitchens and bathrooms, nice stuffed animals on the beds in the kids rooms, yet no clothes in the closets. Nice staging job but still a flipper.
My Realtor was urging me to put in offers at or above the list price …
Needless to say, I ditched the Realtor, didn’t buy a damn thing, and enjoyed watching the Sheeple snap them up for 10% above list.
It never ceases to amaze me at how clueless the average person is about real estate and investing. It’s never been a better time to short the real estate market.
#12 Kevin in Winnipeg on 04.07.11 at 11:40 pm
Winnipeg had it’s best March ever. Average price was $255,000, a good 10% from a year ago. Another 100% return on a $20,000 investment.
http://www.winnipegrealtors.ca/press/Apr11pr/Apr11pr.pdf
Illusory. Might suit you. — Garth
Too many people are going to find themselves in a tight spot when interest rates rise further and property values decline. Many have said the government won’t allow interest rates to rise IOT counter inflation but in some instances there may not be many choices or options open to governments. Rising interest rates are a necessary tool to rebuild savings and curb spending. Saved capital can then be used by investors to build businesses and forge ahead to develop new ventures. For too long now, governments have actively punished “savers” and rewarded “debtors” (ie profligate spenders) with low interest rates.
There are family and friends I know that are well into their 60’s with record levels of debt. One family member; she’s mid 60’s; husband is late 60’s and they carry at least $150,000 in mortgage and a HELOC against their home and find themselves on fixed income so he continues to work to make ends meet. I am almost certain that he would retire if he could but that would mean they would have to stop travelling to Vegas three times per year, dine at home every night instead of going to restaurants and look seriously at their cash flow. Most people usually don’t have an income problem, they have a spending problem and it seems endemic within our times.
My other friend (about my age mid 40’s) conceded that in ’04 they took out a second mortgage for $130,000 against their ritzy home for “debt consolidation” and have spent merrily ever since on vacations, renovations, newer campers and all the glitz and bling that our consumerist culture entices us with. While it is never an evil thing to indulge these whims, my thoughts tell me that one should perhaps be debt free first, set aside some contingency money second, build up investments third and THEN consider some expenditures on those items that make us feel good. North Americans (and possibly Europeans, as well, although this would merely be a matter of personal conjecture) seem to want it all RIGHT NOW and the notion of delayed gratification is a foreign ideal reserved for those who are quirky…
One of the places I work at takes me through a newer neighbourhood and almost without exception, I drive past larger two story homes, nearly eclipsed by garages barely able to handle two mid-sized veh and there are about 3 to 4 SUVs for every 5 driveways…what I find even more remarkable is that most people who live there are young families (mid 20’s to mid 30’s) with smaller children…They can’t all be high paid professionals! Although we differed perhaps politically, I continue to subscribe to those values espoused by my late Grandfather; a Diefenbaker Conservative who taught us by example to work hard, support the family you elected to create, pay your bills on time and work and invest so that you owe no one anything. My thoughts tell me that if more people returned to, internalized and practiced those values, we’d have a different outcome that the one we’re about to confront.
The Phantom
A lot of people should resent the comment about junior mining stocks. If you invested in them 3 years ago you would have at least tripled your money by now. If you didn’t catch the bottom, the last year saw almost 80% gains.
With a home, in most places and especially Alberta, you are basically flat – after having paid rent to the bank, maintenance and giving your local government their cut – not to mention selling costs later. Even then, you can’t sell it on a whim like you could with your stocks.
Unless, of course, you live in Vancouver – and that could change very quickly….
Yup. Good post Garth.
Folks, here is the deal. If a market, any market, needs to be sustained by debt, it will crash at some point. Ask the auto manufacturers. Of course they will say all is well, but without government bailouts, 72 month loans at 0% couldn’t save them. The autos are a mess. Short at will.
Eventually, all of the bad debt will go to bad debt heaven (or hell). Those who cannot pay, won’t. Defaults are comming. Large. Zero interest rates will only inflate prices until not even principal can be repaid. And once it can’t be repayed, it won’t be repaid.
I was just in a CIBC bank, and they have a Home Ownership survey right by the teller lady. It is a questionaire that basically assesses whether you rent or not and if you do, how you can turn your rent payment into a mortgage payment and stop paying that landlord. Sheesh. it must be dire. Thank God I am in NO RUSH to buy a home. My friends just bought the oldest house in our area. They never got a house inspection. It is two minors cabins put together. Because they are 21km from the nearest fire station/hydrant their house insurance adds and extra $3300/yr. Ouch!
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“Besides, the smell…of my deity status.” — You said it, not me! I’m here to re-arrange your words!
“Things will soon change.” — Yep. That’s what TPTB do. So far, they have bankrupted Portugal, Greece and Ireland. Started with Iceland, but the Icefolk fought back and told them where to shove their IMF loans (used toilet paper).
So, rising rates + rising inflation + depreciating asset values. Makes for a helluvan interesting decade ahead.
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#16 MO — Good post. Watched the link not too long ago. I would venture to say that, under any of the present nutbars in charge, Canada, like the US, is destined to travel the same path as the rest of the declining west.
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Chaos — Nibiru? Wot sayeth thee?
Hockey Night In China? Yet another Cdn. company gonzo, and Rigged Election Canada’s FF.
Flash Crash New rules to prevent one, and See the headline. When poverty increases in the States, it will also follow on here.
IMF sends another one down, plus Portugal and Spain.
Real Conspiracies The m$m can’t be trusted, so CT are becoming more and more mainstream on the ‘net, and For The Elite “At the conclusion of that war (WW2) the US funded, the for-profit rebuilding of Europe & Japan from the ground up; . . .”
Japan So far, an unproven conspiracy theory, plus Six Wars Sarkozy may end up being swallowed by his own, bloated ego, plus Obama Nice guy, huh? He and Sarkozy must be working jointly behind the scenes. As a Nobel Peace Prize winner, no other president has been involved in more wars than he has. Trust the US to stick their noses into something which is none of their business. Sarkozy and Obama? Good guess.
Oil What of US$175 / barrel? Oil companies will be swimming in greenbacks, plus Japan’s Economy is in worse shape than most think.
Mall Vacancies Highest in eleven years, plus Fiscal Rolaids.
There is no doubt how this will evolve. The only mystery’s why so few can see.
It’s not a mystery, really. And you of course know this Garth.
Jon B wrote that it has to do with ignorance, which is partly right. However, I feel it has much more do with the skewed half truths, misinfo and disinfo being constantly fed to us, which is shaping our minds and attitude towards real estate.
Who in their right mind would commit astronomical dollars to one day own a house without the propaganda? How many of our thoughts are unadulterated by all the NOISE we‘re bombarded with! I would say almost none. But, we feel like they’re our own. Overt and subliminal mind manipulation has become the new “common sense“. If everyone’s “doing it“, how smart or sensible is it, considering that most of us fall into the “have not” category?
Pretend that you had no idea about where real estate has been or where it is going and were completely oblivious to any talk about it. In other words, there were no external influences on your decision making process. If you were directed to a series of properties by a speechless realtor (yeah, I know) who pointed at the prices on the For Sale signs and shook his head violently when you asked if there was gold buried inside the walls of those houses, would you as an average income earner pay the going rate, especially in GTA and GVA? You’d probably say, “Are you nuts? You think I’m going to spend half my life’s earnings for a 20’ x 30’ x16’ box!?” I think in this instance being “fresh off the boat” or having “fallen of a melon truck” would be a good thing.
The figures are the same in coquitlam BC.
We sold our townhouse in 2008 feb, for 335,000.
A unit in the same complex for the past 5 months for 305,000. Same thing with the second house we sold in 2010 just before the olympics in Belcarra. If we sold today today we would be down 100,000 to 150,000 easily.
One thing that makes Real Estate real risky. It is probably the only investment which you have to borrow money to get into.
All other investments, you probably have the cash in your hand before you take a risk on it.
Basically if you take a hit, your FUCKED for many years in the future. With 600,000 dollar mortgages, I would say you and several generations of your DNA chain will be paying for quite some time.
Also remember what happened to in the states, once they started collapsing the banks were not lending out money. There was a credit crunch.
In Canada’s case once CMHC is done, and the responsibility goes back to the banks, do you think they will be lend
1) at the same lower rates
2) with the same ir-responsibility
3) who will be classified as preferred customers?
Meaning even lower demands, and the snowball effects starts
I rent for $1000/month. 700 Sqr ft. What price would a condo have to be to make sense to buy? (including taxes, mortgage payments, increasing interest rates, condo fees, lost opportunity cost of investing $100k)
read awhile ago that 85% of mortgage borrowers in Ireland and Spain have variable rate morgages, while 99% have them in Spain—further disaster
coming soon to a location near you
#200 Oasis on 04.07.11
“what a shocking surprise…US dollar sinking again tonight, along with bond prices, while gold and oil continue higher”
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Well, one thing we can probably both agree on here Oasis is that the two events are connected. The same QE’s that are harming the dollar are also the big force that is driving the commodity boom. So the buck and oil will likely remain inversly coorelated at least until the end of June (end of QE).
Not three people in a hundred meanwhile seem to be onside with my contention that the dollar will see a bounce shortly. We will see. I am taking the contrarian bet here and it is getting pretty lonely to be honest but I am unrepentant.
I note that the dollar did see a rise of 7.5 cents recently. Between November 2010 and January 2011 (over a three month period) in fact. That is not ancient history Oasis. The wind may be at your back now because the downdraft continues with some momentum but it will not last forever.
Never does. Nothing ever goes straight down on the charts.
Garth, your point about the internet and social networking spreading a ‘meme’ among property virgins is so true.
All it needs is someone ‘cool’..this excludes you, me and anyone else over 35…to set up a campaign that resonates with the frustrations of first time buyers who are forced to commit themselves to a life of slavery so they can say they own their own home. A bit like the “just say no” campaign or just like the internet campaign that forced Dutch Bankers to cut their bonuses, If a sufficient number of young Canadians made 2011 the year they strike from buying houses, we’d soon see who really wears the boot when it comes to buyers and sellers. If property virgins want cheap property, it’s the only way they’re going to achieve it.
Economy must be great here in lotusland (lower mainland) I just posted a $12.00 an hour job on craigslist and got 35 replies in 4 hours. I couldn’t believe it! And we are way out in South Surrey. All of these respondents have a car because I noted there is no bus service here.
Amazing!
Carlyle of Toronto here … Formerly Carlyle of Milton. :)
Finally moved, cashed in, and slayed a large chunk of my consumer credit card debt. Renting now in Cityplace Toronto … Great condo and location … A little pricey at 1475 a month including parking BUT but the savings from gas, elimination of 407 fees, the lowered hydro bill, the eliminated natural gas and water heater bill, the lowered cost of car maintenance, the elimination of house maintenance, the elimination of property taxes, the freed up cash flow from slaying debt … We are coming out waaaay on top. Even treating ourselves to a cruise in the Caribbean.
Wanted to saym I am 34 and my wife is 28 … We are noticing more and more that our younger friends are staying out of real estate … Not because they still not lust for it, but because many of them have bitterly told me it’s now “too expensive”.
Put simply, many are simply not willing to take on the debt loads any longer. Others just can’t afford it (no longer qualify) even though they want to.
So with the younger group it’s a combination of factors … And gen Y has always been a herd gen … Once the majority start staying out of real estate (for whatever reason) enmasse the rest will surely follow … As Garth said look for clues on social media … This is where you will hear the bitterness regarding prices loud and clear.
#7 Sad-
Do you mean that your building prohibits rental? or that you can’t find a renter?
I believe that condo bylaws that prohibit your unit from being rented can be temporarily lifted if it causes you financial hardship. You can apply to the strata corporation, but you need to show them documented proof that you have lost your job, etc.
Simply amazing since March 18th, I have not heard ONE peep out of the RE pumper crowd about the potential effects of amortizations being reduced from 35 to 30 years…
I follow as many RE pumpers as I can on Twitter… Last 3 weeks has been only sunshine and lollipops, in fact lately they’re louder than ever, even being so naive as to predict coming booms in the places that are about to bust!
Not….One….Peep
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there are still sales happening in Toronto. I’m the biggest RE bear out there – trust me. I think it’s people coming out of hibernation to purchase but there’s not that many behind them to follow and keep it all propped up.
#7 SAD–I’ll never be able to sell my condo now as more units have come up for sale etc-
you’re not alone as you’ve probably realized–many will lose their homes in the near future or end up selling for big losses
my son was in the same situation recently–small condo–bought 08 for less than 200k–prices stayed flat after his purchase–he saw what was happening in the tri-cities so he listed in July10 for a few thousand over what he paid–he did alot of work the last 2 years and it was in nice condition–he had various potential buyers through over the next few months,but no takers (condo market was tanking) –took it off the market at Xmas
he relisted in mid Jan-dropped the price 2k and offered a 3k selling bonus–in a slow market realtors get awful hungry–within 2 days of relisting, 3 offers came in and he sold–got listing price—minus the 3k bonus he ended up selling for what he paid 3 years earlier
there’s no doubt that the 3k was a big incentive in selling his condo–greedy realtors will even screw their own clients
the lower the sale price the less bonus the realtor got–the original offer was for 3 k less than the list price –once the realtor found out that there was no 3k bonus unless list price was met, the offer came back at full list price —simply amazing eh !!!
you’ll see more and more of this bonus commission as sales continue to falter and realtors go hungry–many i’ve noticed offer $500 or$1000 bonus but when you jack it up to 3k for a 200k condo the realtors take notice and they come out of the woodwork
SAD-try this approach with the a low priced condo–go with a higher bonus for a higher priced condo
list slightly lower than others in the same building or area-
-get a good trusted realtor
-pay no more than 5%and 2% to 2-1/2% commission–realtors are getting desperate
and remember –1k off list means 1k off the bonus–you’ll get attention for your property and will have a better chance to sell than others without the bonus
sorry for the long post but thought this was of some importance to a few sellers on here and to warn other potential buyers of hungry realtors
ps–3 condos have come up in the same complex–1 sold for 2.5k less than my sons–1 is listed for 5k less– the second is listed for 13k less than he got(needs work)—told you this market is tanking
JPM, HSBC, Goldman and the rest of the criminal enterprises charading as banks are about to have their tighty whities roasted. their massive short position in the pm market is uncoverable and its reaming time.
Junior mining stocks carry no risk for those who understand. Management and share structure folks that ‘s what it’s all about. Vancouver carries no risk! You get a home. Renters get uncertainty and their parents internal anguish and feelings of failure. This is why the fake BPOE is so bitter. English Major at SFU renting. Solid investment in Vancouver folks. There will be no housing correction. As stated by one poster above Point Grey is flipping beautiful.
“Still, it happened. First time since the financial crisis. And it underscores a theme I’ve outlined for you – price inflation concurrent with asset deflation. Rates must rise to try and cool off raging energy and food costs…” Garth
How does raising interest rates lower food and energy prices?
GTA is a “has been” City and a dump. Sell and move to the Coast where your money will be preserved. Move to a City with soul>Vancouver
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
The housing crash continues to get worse as first time buyers step back. You can see this happening as sales have dropped for TEN MONTHS IN A ROW. Realtors who post on this blog are very worried and scared for good reason. Drive around the GTA and all you see is countless for sale signs with very little sold which explains the 10 MONTHS IN A ROW OF FALLING SALES
Garth said:
As I have been saying with nauseating repetitiveness, there are consequences to children who have no money buying houses with just 5% down and at prices which will only drop and with loans that will only augment.
——-
It is good an well that they “put off” their purchase, since they should save up for a more considerable deposit– But did the article delve into the minds of these folks who surely realize that they will need to save up a ‘little bit more’… since prices will be higher in the future.
I am all for a good-sized deposit. As for prices going down, it is your speculation that it will, and we know how accurate you have been on that front.
It’s midnite on the west coast and…
US dollar in freefall….. which means
Canada will not raise interest rates that much going forward. Maybe a symbolic move and thats it! The higher loonie will dampen exports and related activity thereby putting brakes on the economy in the near term (1 year). Raising rates (before the US) when our loonie is so high is political suicide!
Our high loonie will eventually slip lower and lower as the BoC refuses to raise rates while the USA starts to raise them in January 2012 (mentioned over a year ago on this blog) – why? because the majority of ARM’s will have reset by this date. USA is going to inflate its way out eventually.
Canada is going to do the same but only after a few years…and without a housing crash (high immigration). Any revenue generating property (tenants) with a positive cash flow is ‘gold’, especially after inflation takes hold. Right Garth?
However, our currency is going to get clobbered starting around January 2012. The only thing it’ll back is our resources and nothing else.
“Those who love bating bears love coming here. ”
it is with bated breath that I
love baiting RE agents.
The outcome is debatable .
Most of your one-sided, pro-crash posters here always cheer & “high five” one another whenever there is an interest rate hike on mortgages. Well Wednesday advertised rates went down, so far being ignored – of course- on here.
Congratulations on your one-sided blog and keep blocking my posts, which I always copy/paste into another blog…
#9 xindai shan
“Hi Garth, are you ghost writing for Canadian Business?”
—————————————————————
Just got through the article from Canadian Business magazine that you posted up xindai. Not bad. The author (Joe Costaldo) did a pretty fair job of covering all the main points that most of us here on this blog are very familiar with.
I tried reading it from the perspective that I knew nothing about real estate at all. You know, with fresh eyes. Then I tried to imagine the impact it might have on those who see it and don’t know anything at all about the fundamentals driving the market. So then I read it again.
Weird. It was so Deja Vu. Just like I had seen it written here before or seen it posted on Garths blog in past issues. I would swear that Joe Costaldo must be a regular forum member here because he did a fine job of covering the major concerns and keeping it interesting at the same time without resorting to pictures of naked women.
Damn.
I was dissapointed he did not mention Squirrel recipes or Saskatoon though. What is wrong with professional writers in this country anyway!!
Anyway, I would endorse it and it is well worth reading. The numbers given for the total value of mortgages held by CMHC sounded too low to me. Quite a few billion too low actually and perhaps Joe will add a comment about how he arrived at his facts there (older CMHC report maybe).
My favorite part was the mention of renters versus owners though. We have not talked about that too often here. You know, the freedom of mobility, care free life, kicking up your heels with no real estate baggage holding you down…….and regional gopher taste-tests trials for the really flighty amongst us.
to number 5 “a guy in oakville” Unfortunately you are screwed. It seems that oakville is one corner of the planet that is bucking a lot of trends. Not sure, why or how a couple of square kilometers nestled between smog ridden Hamilton and the Big Smoke can be so desired. But it seems to me that when a nice single family home in Oakville costs more than a comparable home in Switzerland (where land is really limited) then we know there is no order in the world. So prices in Oakville will probably be among the last in the country to fall. Still too many torontonians in the top income brackets that are making good money on options etc….Still hear from some lunatics in that area convinces their houses will increase in value by up to 10% over the next year…wow..
We don’t do positive spin or good news here very often….
So here is a another (brighter) view of the Canadian economy by an American writer and economist named Dr. Stephen Leeb. Judge for yourself.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/262038-investing-in-canada-outperforming-economy-strong-resources
for those illiterate in technical analysis,
the USD is collapsing.
gold and oil are skyrocketing.
that’s technical analysis for you.
lol
Interesting figures presented (current vs. historic norms), in this article, which appears in the most recent issue of Canadian Business.
Housing-related spending accounts for 20% of the country’s GDP, and home-renovation expenditures have swelled from 1.6% of GDP in 2000 to 2.8%.
The construction sector accounts for 7% of all employment today, compared to the long term average of 5.5%. A return to this average would mean the loss of 250,000 jobs.
Housing: Real insanity
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/managing/strategy/article.jsp?content=20110425_10021_10021
The headline says it all –
and the text explains it.
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Politicians+think+stupid/4579793/story.html
The trouble is that “plumbers in Peterborough” are not yet “smart enough to see through this stuff.” Maybe after a few more elections made pointless by the lies, falsehoods and distortions on offer.
For too long now, governments have actively punished “savers” and rewarded “debtors” (ie profligate spenders) with low interest rates.
———-
Nonsense. Bonds and equities area at all time highs. Debtors and investors have both benefitted.
You’ve only been punished if you kept your money in a bank account.
Diefenbaker Conservative who taught us by example to work hard, support the family you elected to create, pay your bills on time and work and invest so that you owe no one anything.
———-
It all sounds good and is probably universal but 30 people of different backgrounds would all have a different way of executing it.
Values/Ethics are a function of our heritage and culture. Globalization has screwed us up by bringing together people of different goals way too fast.
Change is good but it can not happen too fast without huge society/systemic implications.
How does raising interest rates lower food and energy prices?
———-
We don’t necessairly need to raise rates. What we need is to start pricing risk properly and stop offering “better than prime” to households that are not better than prime.
Garth, any thoughts on gold or silver this morning? Silver has gone to 40.
#23 The Phantom
Respect.
#4 Nothing Selling In GTA
“You can see this happening as sales have dropped for TEN MONTHS IN A ROW. ”
Not according to Guava.ca
Can you show some hard proof of this?
I generally agree with Garths theory/facts, however, I have been awaiting a change in T.O attitudes for…well since 2008, …and still no change.
Drove by a house that came up for sale in the E end, looked like a house party! There are soooo, many people still ready to pounce on the 1st sale they see.
I would fell a lot better if you could present some hard evidence.
As opposed to your drive-by research? — Garth
OT…Whatever happened to stopping the HST in Ontario?
Are we just going to sit idly by and take it up the a$$?
Meanwhile, over at the Cityplace condo “ghetto” in Toronto…
( http://cityplace-ghetto.com
http://torontorealtyblog.com/2011/02/25/the-friday-rant-cityplace-as-a-ghetto )
…it appears that rental prices for 1-bedrooms are moving closer towards $1000, than towards $2000 (I’ve seen a few offered at 1350-1400 on these kijiji pages):
http://tinyurl.com/3kwozfz
A few days back I thought of sending a chain mail to call for a strike “Don’t Buy—Make Property Owners reduce the Price”.
With this though in my mind I went through the list of my friends/contacts and I realized that 95% of them are already home Owners and a few have two………….
Logical post Garth, but……………………..
The heard does not see it. They don’t know it, they don’t believe it. The heard decided the outcome of this game, and not a bunch of logical disgruntled bubble heads .
Sure fundamentals are crappy, sure the price to income ratio sucks, but the heard doesn’t care. Like a hummer or big pickup truck driver with gas at 1.30 it’s all about show and image. MSM will do everything in it’s power to hide this reality, it’s good for business.
This cow still has a lot more milk in it. Now I’m not trying to pump re, just stating the obvious.
Bubble heads your dream of housemegedon will come to fruition eventually but you got to wait a wee bit longer.
I am definitely not an RE chearleader. I just like to look at reality. 91,000 new full time jobs reported this morning. Can dollar at + 1.04. The economy, and more important, confidence in the economy, seems to be picking up. I would love to know how the current conditions compare to the last time we had an RE downturn in the early-to-mid 90’s when jobs were scarce and interest rates were high. The US aside, are we being set up for a great fall in Canada, or just one more of those periodic bursts of inflation where incomes may catch up to RE values? If: rates stay low, jobs are plentiful, immigration stays high, household formation is strong, and boomers don’t cash out en masse, it will take a pretty serious event to upset this RE apple cart in the near term. Not to say a serious event ain’t coming, but are you banking on disaster? The momentum sure seems like it’s currently to the upside. In the meantime, I can’t find an MFR property that gets you a positive cash flow with 75% financing.
The dollar at $1.04 is bad news, not good. As for a major factor to unhorse the current real estate, and the key difference with past periods, you can put it in one word: debt. Once rates normalize a little you should start to sober up. — Garth
Left wingers are stupid that’s for sure. Especially the ones that get all excited when Iggy bribes them with their own money at election time.
Just look at Quebec. They get all this ‘cheap’ stuff like 7$ daycare but on the other side they are the most taxed jurisdiction in NA. So, save on daycare for a few years but pay high taxes forever. Hmm…
Their roads are falling apart, their bridges are crumbling, the whole province is run by unions and sleaze ball politicians.
A real little Cuba right there in Canada. I’d love to move to Montreal for the night life but it’s not worth the extra 20K+ in taxes our family would have to pay. And we’re not even close to being the ‘rich ones’ that every socialist dummy likes to tax.
If you’re a left winger you should really get your head checked.
You see most of you bubble heads look at house price to income ratios, but the heard does not look at that.
They find a nice building, in a nice area to rent where they can see themselves living. HOW MUCH. Are you nuts. Most boomer kids who have lived in mom and dads castle will not look at cheap rentals with weird people in the halls.
Then they compare the rent to what a nice new condo would cost to service in a nice part of cow town. It’s a no brainier at these low rates.
They buy……………
Hi Garth
With the HELOC’s about to no longer be CMHC insured can you look at a post on that. There has been nothing in the MSM making me think there’s something up. I’d trust your research over their’s any day anyway. I’ve heard of people in Oakville receiving a letter from the bank on it.
Tom
Garth,
Actually the dollar at +1.04 may be a good thing for US real estate ;). With regards to debt, yes, this is the overriding issue globally, and certainly in Canada. The US has begun their great deflation. Canada, not yet, if indeed it’s coming.
I have been telling friends and family that a significant increase in rates would push great numbers of home owners over the edge. Canadians are very indebted right now. However, it looks like interest rates would have to rise significantly from these levels if employment continues to improve, population growth continues, and people have the income to absorb the increase. They may have to forgo some consumption (like vacations in the Caribbean) but they will hang on to their homes by their broken, splintered fingernails if necessary.
Also, it depend on how FAST rates go up. The Fed seems to be doing everything in their power to prevent an interest rate shock. So, yes the risks are very high right now, but I would not be at all surprised if we just muddle through by devaluing the currencies, and hope that we don’t get another economic shock or banking crisis. I don’t know, we’ll see.
“…a repudiation of my deity status. I could smite them, of course, but where’s the fun in watching realtors incinerate in a 600-million volt thunderflash?”… Hon. GT
Well, it worked out rather well for Alanis [and George Burns, too – for that matter]; why not GT [I’ll write you a ‘cameo’]?
“Dogma” [Alanis Morissette Is God] PG13
http://tinyurl.com/6eu4g4o
Garth. You miss one key piece of the puzzle. So what if virgins no longer want to buy. For some reason, sellers also dont want to sell at an even greater rate. This market will cave one day but not this year.
I will be back every month to say “I told you so” when the repetitive cycle of monthly sales volume down, supply down and prices up continues. Expect this to happen every month with one difference. In May or June sales will be up versus previous year to account for the steep drop off last year. With supply down what do you expect will happen to prices then?
If you’re coming back monthly, I hope you have more to offer. — Garth
Illusory. Might suit you. — Garth
Now now, no need for sour grapes. I’m just conveying the facts. Instead of taking a cheap shot at anyone or comment that doesn’t support your prophecies, explain why it’s illusory. Those are some pretty strong numbers.
Nothing cheap, just facts. You cannot spend unrealized gains. Remember the dot-com ‘millionaires’? — Garth
“There is no doubt how this will evolve. The only mystery’s why so few can see.”
In a book I just read this is dubbed as the confirmation fallacy. “Well I didn’t get whiped out again today, so there must be no risk in my investments”. Or the author also dubs it the Turkey Fallacy. The thanks giving turkey gets fed for 300 days straight. He naturally assumes he’ll get fed again on the next day since that’s all that’s happened 300 days in a row. Then one day he ends up on the plate.
OK, so Benjamin Tal of CIBC is not bullish on the latest employment numbers. Says quality of employment declining. Says the economy is slowing. Says with economic outlook tepid and Can dollar high, interest rates not likely to rise fast. Could we eventually get the perfect storm of a cyclical downturn combined with higher rates?
In Calgary so far in April sales volumes are down 20% YOY and 20% from March.
Garth, maybe you could write something about skatchatoon or regina. Prices are nuts here. Houses selling for a mill now, people building 3 million dollar shacks but they aren’t outhouses like in vancouver. You get a real house for that. Also, the surrounding farmland has started to hit $2,000/acre or more. Can it last??
Everything’s fine in Ottawa:
http://tinyurl.com/3tlwgq3
According to the CMHC, real estate always goes up, yet it’s always easy to buy. Not sure how that works, but have a nice day!
#23 The Phantom- so true. I, one of many proud savers, will only consider spending and doing “my bit”for the economy when, and only when, interest rates normalize. I have spent the last 10 years “in training”, searching and discovering creative ways to split a penny into tenths. My methodology is to counter drops in interest rates with increased saving. It’s sooooo easy, and you needn’t compromise quality of life. You actually end up eating better and paying waaay more attention to making businesses respect your dollar. Sure I’ll spend like it’s 1999, but when, and only when central banks smarten up and get real.
Re#64
Name one thing exciting to do in Calgary?
Name one nice building in Calgary?
Are there any trees in Calgary?
Are there any non-conservatives in Calgary?
Would there be anyone there if the price of oil tanked?
#64 CalgaryRocks:
“If you’re a left winger you should really get your head checked.”
Already happened, my neandercon friend, just for you:
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110407/politics-brain-structure-110407/
Translation: liberals understand what’s going on, while conservatives don’t have to.
#23 The Phantom on 04.08.11 at 12:40 am
Most people usually don’t have an income problem, they have a spending problem and it seems endemic within our times.
…………………………
Talked to a sis yesterday who has both an income and a spending problem. They live on CPP, OAS, her hubby’s DVA, which apparently increased recently, and a TINY pension she receives. She has always been a shopaholic and ended up giving most of her purchases (clothing, home decor, etc.) away after a couple of years. She’s better since she retired, but now they are talking about what purchases to make with his DVA increase. Yet, she uses a LOC to get by some months. Madness. The adrenalin rush only lasts for a few days. Mutual friend just nods when sis buys more ‘stuff’. I’m a bit more verbal even tho I know it won’t make much difference!
……………………..
North Americans (and possibly Europeans, as well, although this would merely be a matter of personal conjecture) seem to want it all RIGHT NOW and the notion of delayed gratification is a foreign ideal reserved for those who are quirky…
…………………………………
Majority of family/friends that I and my hubby know in Europe (PILs are French) are much more frugal than we N.A.’s. It may be because most are boomers, suffered during the war, & after. My MIL inherited a sizeable chunk of money when her parents died, yet they live basically as they did before the inheritance. They invested the inheritance. To avoid huge inheritance taxes they give some money to their children annually. I recall the first time I met my MIL’s mother she complained about the taxes she paid. Yet, she & her husband never helped out my PILs when they were struggling; they thought their daughter married beneath her station. My FIL’s parents had little, but they had great hearts and gave of themselves emotionally & monetarily.
#77 Tim,
I’ll take the bait:
-Stampede is fun and exciting, there are plenty of concerts every year, theatre, museums, science centre, etc. If that doesn’t tickle your fancy there are world class mountains within an hours drive with skiing, hiking, whitewater rafting. Not to mention a world class dinosaur museum an hour to the North East.
-There are plenty of nice buildings, but the new Bow Tower (aka Encana Banana) will top them all.
-Have you been to Calgary? Honestly, no trees? Sub-urbs you have a point, but I can see at least a million trees out my window right now, but nice try.
-There are non-conservatives in Calgary and we just elected a very liberal Mayor (unlike Toronto). We might (ok I won’t hold my breath) elect a Liberal MP this year.
-Oil’s huge for our economy no doubt, but Calgary existed long before the oil show (more of a small friendly city back then). Name me another town / province that’s not a one trick pony. It’s Canada man. The whole country relies heavily on natural resources.
I was logging in to my Yahoo! email account this morning, and the ad in the sidebar caught my eye. It was for a Rich Dad real estate investment tour that is soon to be making stops in London, Kitchener and Cambridge. Maybe you have heard of it – the successful program that got millions of Americans drinking the Kool-Aid on the boundless opportunities to become rich from purchasing rental property. It’s based on the bestselling book called Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki.
Mr. Kiyosaki is not coming on the tour, but his surrogates are advertising this message: “Don’t miss the coming real estate boom. Investment opportunities have never been better.” I nearly sprayed coffee on my computer screen when I read it. For the entertainment value, I clicked through the link and read some testimonials. Here’s my favourite: “I no longer suffer from pain or depression. I own and rent out all 12 of my 12 properties and am helping others of all ages achieve their own dreams. I am more connected to nature, I see things clearer, food tastes better, colours look brighter and the air smells sweeter. I love my ‘Rich Dad’ life and so can you.” – Shaun Knowles
Colours look brighter? I have to get me some of the drugs Shaun is on. Seriously though, it got me thinking that this over-the-top RE pumping roadshow has probably run its course in the U.S.
And that there are still a lot of greater fools north of the border who will probably eat this up. I wonder how much better their food will taste when it’s coming from the soup kitchen.
#64 CalgaryRocks on 04.08.11 at 9:43 am
If you’re a left winger you should really get your head checked.
………………
I could say the same about you ultra right wingers. You are no longer the Progressive Conservative Party but the CONtempt party.
You write in the article this: “And it underscores a theme I’ve outlined for you – price inflation concurrent with asset deflation.”
But how can you get an asset to go up and down in the same time?
Thanks
Price inflation = cost of living. Asset deflation = value of your home. — Garth
Yes well…………………….The tides are changing. This is going to be a fun ride to the bottom. Especially for a lowly renter. The idea of negative equity scares the crap out of me!
And that’s precisely what all those virgins like me are thinking. Patience is a virtue. Especially when you can buy of idiots with no patience!
Mista mista
#77 Tim on 04.08.11 at 10:48 am asked:
a) Name one thing exciting to do in Calgary?
b) Name one nice building in Calgary?
c) Are there any trees in Calgary?
d) Are there any non-conservatives in Calgary?
e) Would there be anyone there if the price of oil tanked?
Answers as follows:
a) Go and see the The Sorcerer at the Pumphouse Theatre tonight or Saturday. Excellent show! Enough excitement to last you all week.
b) Heritage Park has a few. The original town hall is nice enough and Lougheed house is worth a visit. My house is pretty nice too!
c) One or two… hundred thousand.
d) I hang out with a bunch of non-conservatives. If you can’t find them you’re not looking. Someone had to vote for Calgary’s muslim mayor. And it wasn’t the Conservatives.
e) Sure. Hint for you: there’s a reason its nickname is “Cowtown”.
Spot The Speculator #33
Couple in Thirties
House $650K; Rental $585K;
Debt $995K;
Net Worth $273K.
450% Of Net Worth In RE
http://wp.me/pcq1o-26d
Another case of rabid speculation in the guise of normality.
HEY ? BPOE is back today ! Welcome back brudda. We missed you ;). Fingers get ba little cramped Typing “Cellar Dwellar” too many times?
INTEREST RATES GOING UP UP UP
HOUSING PRICES GOING DOWN DOWN DOWN
you heard it here FIRST !
Oasis: the USD is collapsing.
it’s going down a cent a day so dinner in NY City in a month is going to be pretty cheap!
http://www.xe.com/?r=10
Ottawa residential sales down 17.6% for March year over year. 1232 homes sold. 1256 is the 5 year average.
Yet prices up about 5.5%. Obviously lower end buyers are gone.
http://www.ottawarealestate.org/news_release.shtml
#172 Vancouver Laughing on 04.06.11 at 9:14 pm
At #58: Oasis, damn you’re dumb. Here’s your predictions for the USD compared with the CAD. As you’ll see the CAD will be falling against the USD pretty soon here. It will change and it will change VERY quickly.
http://www.forecasts.org/cdollar.htm
____________________________________
wow. in just two days, it’s clear who’s dumb as a sack of nails. i guess your predictions just got totally blow away. maybe with a little experience, you’ll learn something here, besides loosing your money.
lol
#35 Carlyle
Right on, good to hear things are working out.
Ultimately, that is what stops bubble, including real estate. Entrants and participants can no longer afford to buy in. There’s no more money! When even super low rates, low lending standards, and extreme debt service levels cannot provide enough money to support the bottom of the pyramid, the writing is on the wall, and the clock is ticking.
Remarkably honest article on MSM:
Housing: Real insanity
“Nino Ricci, an award-winning novelist, purchased a detached home in Toronto’s Riverdale neighbourhood in 1997 with his wife, also a writer. The price was at the very limit of what they could afford, even with help from both sets of parents. They managed, however, and watched as the neighbourhood gentrified and the value of their home ballooned. “I’ve earned more from the increase in the value of my home than I have in my entire professional career as a writer,” Ricci says. “But the only way I can use that money is to run a credit line, and that’s a dangerous habit to get into.”
Still, a line of credit against the value of their home is how Ricci, his wife and two kids fund a portion of their admittedly frugal lifestyle, particularly when paycheques become sporadic. During especially tight periods, Ricci makes interest payments on the credit line with money from the line itself. (“There’s nothing in the rules that prohibits that,” he says with a hint of mischief.) Ricci knows this pattern may not be sustainable. The implications of an interest rate increase worry him, but an even bigger concern is what will happen if his home drops in value. “I keep wondering, should I sell my home today? Is this my last chance to actually have retirement savings?” he says. “We’re both writers. We don’t have RRSPs or any assurance for the future.””
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/managing/strategy/article.jsp?content=20110425_10021_10021
#38 poco
I wonder how many of those realtors told their customers there was a hidden incentive on the table, or refunded their clients this money.
BPOE: “GTA is a “has been” City and a dump. Sell and move to the Coast where your money will be preserved. Move to a City with soul>Vancouver”
With outrageous statements like that I’m finding it harder and harder to distinguish between the real BPOE and the BPOE poser. If that is the real BPOE it’s very clear that you’re a troll. One would think cognitive dissonance would set in after a while.
#41 pacific
Investors chasing yields in a ZIRP environment, cause lots of money to pour into speculative and leveraged investments, which drive up commodity prices through the increased demand.
#88 45north on 04.08.11 at 12:03 pm
Oasis: the USD is collapsing.
it’s going down a cent a day so dinner in NY City in a month is going to be pretty cheap!
_____________________________________
it’s going to be amazing the next few months, to see exaclty how far and fast the USD collapses. it will shock people.
#50 Oasis on 04.08.11 at 6:37 am
“for those illiterate in technical analysis,the USD is collapsing”.
————————————————————-
Oh for Pete’s sake Oasis, the US dollar is not collapsing any more than the Dow will rise to 20,000 this year. It is only collapsing in the newsrooms of a few extemists belonging to the inflation camp who are trying to instill fear in you while selling subscription services.
What is your proof of a collpase? (try to offer an explanation and rationalization without all the insults if you can manage that)
Many people write here lamenting that they’re a sick of being a pariah among family and friends because they rent and won’t buy, but they plan to have the last laugh when prices go down and they buy dirt cheap, “Then everyone will think I’m a genius.” Not so fast. It crossed my mind that if things go the way Garth says, that in a few years owning RE will be as fashionable as acid-wash jeans and cowboy boots, that if you buy later you’re still going to be a pariah. So you didn’t buy when the prices were going up, so you made no money on the boom, but now you’re buying in during the bust when everyone else is scrambling to get out? It might be the smart thing, I’m not saying it’s not, but get comfortable being an outcast because Contrarian views are just that, contrary to what the majority of people are doing. Just saying.
Left wingers are stupid that’s for sure. Especially the ones that get all excited when Iggy bribes them with their own money at election time.
Just look at Quebec. They get all this ‘cheap’ stuff like 7$ daycare but on the other side they are the most taxed jurisdiction in NA. So, save on daycare for a few years but pay high taxes forever. Hmm…
—————
The daycare program has markedly reduced single mom poverty and kept educated and performing people in the market place.
Liberalism is bad for all those who are rich, had an unfair edge in life and don’t want to share. But it can be great for the have nots.
Usually those against liberalism are the ones who have a lot, the ones protected by the current system and its glass ceilings… or the ones who have nothing but have been brain washed by those who have a lot into thinking they could potentially one day maybe make it into the top brass.
So if you’re not in the top 5%, it makes sense to be liberal.
Here are some thoughts…
“Conservatism is built on a fundamental lie, namely the Great Lie of Class Inversion, by which the super-rich are cast as the heroic working class upon which the economy depends, and the poor and disenfranchised are cast as a privilege-demanding and “entitlement-seeking” elite. Because of this fundamental dishonesty, conservatism cannot bear the light of day of truth”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/02/12/300954/-Reminder-to-self:-Conservatism-is-the-domination-of-society-by-an-aristocracy
Oh Herby, if you need this study to make you feel better about your misguided opinions, then you can hang on to it.
I am sure the same study would be decried loudly by Liberals if instead of ‘conservative’ it used the word, Asian or Black. You know what I mean, my little hypocrite ‘progressive’ friend?
Which reminds me, I know someone that keeps telling everyone she meets how high her IQ is and how she is Mensa material.
The only problem is that she is a lazy loser with no ambition or direction. She has started several university degrees, dropped out every time, never finishes on darn thing.
Right now, she is working menial jobs, and at mid 40 hasn’t accomplished anything with her life even though she has had every opportunity handed to her on a silver platter.
Of course, a ‘smart’ person like that could only be a Liberal.
#72 JohnnyBGood
“OK, so Benjamin Tal of CIBC is not bullish on the latest employment numbers. Says quality of employment declining. Says the economy is slowing. Says with economic outlook tepid and Can dollar high”
———————————————————
When Benny talks I am usually all ears. He is the one bank economist in this country who seems to have the best handle on projecting our current situation into the future. Seems like a nice guy too.
Gold up, Oil up , Ag up…rates up ….etc….because debt …personal and otherwise …..is way up and a massive inflation spike is in the works. You ain’t seen nothing yet…oh baby…you just ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
If you figure that Joe Average has made a smooth move by loading up on cheap money….boy are you stupid. If you think that there will NEVER be a consequence from the government loading up on cheap debt…boy are you an idiot. The cost of your bananna’s is set to double….again…… over the next five years ( as well as everything else) .
If you think you’re getting rich because prices are doubling…Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha you are so effing dumb.
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
#69 Antonio,
You said, “I will be back every month to say “I told you so” when the repetitive cycle of monthly sales volume down, supply down and prices up continues.”
We look forward to your return as you will be more wrong every month between now and the end of the year.
#97 Utopia on 04.08.11 at 1:01 pm
Oh for Pete’s sake Oasis, the US dollar is not collapsing any more than the Dow will rise to 20,000 this year. It is only collapsing in the newsrooms of a few extemists belonging to the inflation camp who are trying to instill fear in you while selling subscription services.
_________________________________
aren’t you the guy who keeps saying the USD is on the rise any day now? hhhmm… that working out for you? not really, is it?
the USD is collapsing. get it through your head.
About sharing; You act like Canada has barely any taxes and rich people pay nothing while ‘poor’ people are starving.
This obviously is untrue as we get taxed on pretty much everything that we buy, earn or do already. The only question is how many more taxes can we endure before we decide to either move somewhere else, or simply withdraw from society as a productive member.
About being advantaged; I admit, I have had an unfair edge in life. I remember my mother, sister and I landing in New York 28 years ago.
My mother, after 40 years of life under communist rule had 2 suitcases (full of communist made s*it clothing) as her only belongings and the responsibility of starting her life over from scratch with 2 toddlers depending on her.
Quite and edge. Starting your life over at 40 in a foreign country with 2 small children. Yet, still not a Liberal. Hmm.
#99Moneta-Just pointing out that on a global basis, very few bloggers or readers on this site would fall below the top 7% line. On a global basis, everybody on this site is RICH-they just don’t know it and the majority have had advantages handed to them that only a very small % of the human population ever gets.
#97Utopia-Oasis is correct on this one-I have no idea what data you are looking at-the Canadian dollar is very strong against the greenback but check out the CDN/GBP-doesn’t look so hot and the pound is garbage. You should type less and think more IMO.
It’s good to see some sanity here once in a while.
I’m not a native — came from the east coast more than 5 years ago, and I’m not an Alberta Con by any stretch of the imagination, but I’ll give it a shot;
a) Name one thing exciting to do in Calgary?
– Stampede, if you only want one.
b) Name one nice building in Calgary?
– the Hitachi building on MacLeod is quite nice
c) Are there any trees in Calgary?
My preference is for Confederation Park — it’s beautiful, large and quite full of trees.
d) Are there any non-conservatives in Calgary?
– raises hand.
e) Would there be anyone there if the price of oil tanked?
Yep, not in the O&G business
Cmon US , shut down the government. I want to see your dollar tanks
Need to buy US dollars.
And the Canadian Spending Addicts need to spend spend spend.
We need to get our debt over 2.00.
tax haven has a point about the lack of understanding about how the tsx-v works.
it is possible to make money here. most people dont have the knowledge to do the due diligence so it is a painful financial experience for many.
however bpoe [not the fake one who is very funny indeed ] is a guy looking to get skinned , management and share structure are only a small part of the evaluation.
so ”pro real estate bpoe” whats your favorite penny stock in pm?
we will just perform some ”due diligence” on it and see how it stacks up ok?
#99 Moneta
The solution is simple! Or is it?
I am a fiscal conservative and social liberal. Might seem contradictory, but really is not. As a conservative, I would be happy with balanced budgets and end to monkeying with the economy and money, and upholding the rule of law. As a liberal, I would be happy with real democracy and fairness.
If the people want social programs, that is fine. I would rather they not, but it is the people’s money after all. If the programs promote a stable, successful and wealthy society, that is good. The conservative side of me must insist that such programs make business sense (net positive investment, such as infrastructure, return on investment, growth), and are fully funded.
Fully funded is the important part. Deficit spending and money printing promote inflation (which hurts the poor and the ones on fixed incomes the worst, by far) and a “pay as you go” mentality, which does not account for the full costs of initiatives and benefits. Once a project no longer makes financial sense, it must be adjusted or scrapped.
Lack of funding leads to incomplete and poor implementation, with results such as regulatory and oversight bodies that cannot regulate properly, or enforce their rules. It leads to arbitrary rationing of services (be it law enforcement, consumer rights, product safety, food inspections, healthcare, pensions), because once a government takes on a certain role, they mandate a monopoly on it, to which there is no legal recourse. They cannot fail, and thus must be fully funded for their lifetime from day one.
CalgaryRocks on 04.08.11 at 1:53 pm
——–
It was food for thought.
I think a lot of Canadians have not sat down and really thought about the differences between
1. Liberalism and conservatism.
2. And they apply to Canadian politics.
I tend to look at liberals as the salesperson who always thinks the pie can grow and conservatives as the accountant who can’t imagine a growing pie and keeps the purse strings tight.
In that vain, conservatives tend to focus on hard assets (materialism) and liberals tend to focus on social assets (goodwill).
Since there are physical limits, especially over the short term and population has exploded, it makes sense to be conservative but if we want progress to continue, we need to be liberal and focus less on materialism in the future.
The problem in Canada is that our liberalism has pushed us to malinvest, giving too much to people who do too little, and our conservatism has pushed us to focus too much on hard assets to the detriment of social asset and this can be seen in our lack of respect for social sciences.
And our political parties are imposters. Liberals are pretending to grow the pie and the conservatives can’t seem to keep to purse strings tight.
Harper is not a conservative just like Ignatieff is not a liberal.
#98 Joe
You make a very good point Joe.
#63 JohnnyBGood
“I just like to look at reality. 91,000 new full time jobs reported this morning. Can dollar at + 1.04. The economy, and more important, confidence in the economy, seems to be picking up.”
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Please note, many people that have regained employment (post layoff) are no where near earning their previous salaries. A declining unemployment percentage may not reflect the return of the confident and prosperous consumer.
#104 Oasis
“Aren’t you the guy [Utopia] who keeps saying the USD is on the rise any day now? hhhmm… that working out for you? not really, is it? The USD is collapsing. Get it through your head”
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Still waiting for some logic and rationalization versus meaningless rhetoric and one-line statements of facts with no basis Oasis. But you are pumping someone elses panic narrative, are you not?
Thought so. Just empty words coming from your court.
#113 Moneta on 04.08.11 at 2:34 pm
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Such a smart gal. I like you better every day Moneta.
My mother, after 40 years of life under communist rule had 2 suitcases (full of communist made s*it clothing) as her only belongings and the responsibility of starting her life over from scratch with 2 toddlers depending on her
——–
A lot of the communists I know had not much in material goods but good educations… an edge in Canada when you consider that employers look for knowledgeable workers who are “hungry”.
CalgaryRocks on 04.08.11 at 1:53 pm
———
And another edge… conservatives usually don’t like immigration. You can thank the libs for immigration!
I believe in looking at increasing the pie while keeping spending in check. Idelogically, I’m a mix of liberalism and conservatism. I don’t find any political party represents my views.
conservatives usually don’t like immigration
——
Unless it’s for cheap labor.
#113 Moneta
I feel very 1984ish with how we have managed to redefine liberalism and conservatism. Just convenient labels to put on people who do not agree with you.
Garth,
You’ve posted in the past about how casually decisions are made in the House.
Can you share anything you experienced with regards to discussions between Bank of Canada governors and members of the House?
The crux of the matter is what influences the setting of the overnight interest rate.
It appears to not be textbook economic policy…please enlighten us.
Nothing changes until that rate is at least 3%. Talk to us about how the overnight rate works.
#105 CalgaryRocks,
you have me at a disadvantage, Sir. Not being Conservative, I don’t like getting personal.
#9 xindai shan on 04.07.11 at 11:29 pm
Hi Garth, are you ghost writing for Canadian Business?
Canadian Business Article
Thank you. Great article. Phil Soper actually seemed level headed.
#107 BrianT responding to #97Utopia
“Oasis is correct on this one-I have no idea what data you are looking at-the Canadian dollar is very strong against the greenback but check out the CDN/GBP-doesn’t look so hot and the pound is garbage. You should type less and think more IMO”
———————————————————-
I never mentioned the Canadian dollar Brian. Nor GBP. Meanwhile, Oasis is only correct for the moment (the last few months have been very hard on the dollar, no doubt) and he is only revelling in the flavour of the day which is a typical herd mentality reaction to market changes.
Guys like him usually end up going off the cliff with all the other Lemmings because they cannot see the error of the logic and paint themselves into a corner.
Namely, that virtually all serious charts will swing back and forth in cycles and that is both expected and the norm for major markets.
There is absolutely no doubt that the US Dollar chart is one of the most important of all charts at this time. Dollars are not the same as penny stocks. It will not crash and burn in a single day on limited volume for example.
The dollar, unlike the pennies, is traded in the hundreds of billions and is therefore less susceptible to wild extremes. Trillions are invested in it’s outcome both in favour and against its strength. Oasis has stated in the past that the dollar was “going straight down” which is patently ridiculous.
Oasis seems very immature actually and shows his lack of experience and knowledge while dishing out one-liner insults and insinuating nonsense and fallacy. I am quite sure from his posts that he has no real market experience to bring to the table and no good advice to offer anyone here.
He just parrots others and is wrong in attitude as much as theory. The US Dollar will rally again of course. That is the day he will finally learn that it was a mistake to parrot the words of some of the newsletter folks and blindly invest in a panic theory that does not consider all alternatives and all the facts nor take technicals into context with reality.
Look beyond the daily charts and try to see the agendas are at play Brian. Meanwhile, you might want to try addressing the comments without all the insults all the time. It wears thin.
Oh for Pete’s sake Oasis, the US dollar is not collapsing any more than the Dow will rise to 20,000 this year. It is only collapsing in the newsrooms of a few extemists belonging to the inflation camp who are trying to instill fear in you while selling subscription services.
What is your proof of a collpase? (try to offer an explanation and rationalization without all the insults if you can manage that)
—————
Get real man, the USD is toast as is the U.S.A itself. Trillions in extra printed currency lead tp generational debt, stagflation and debasement of currency.
A simple analysis of the housing wealth affect.
A decade ago, a $20,000 down payment would get you an $80,000 mortgage, meaning you could buy a house priced at $100,000.
Today that same $20,000 would secure a mortgage worth $380,000.
http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/
#122dontcallmeshirley
BOC: STRICTLY ARM’S LENGTH. POLS NOT WANTED.
Members of the House of Commons don’t dare have a casual chat with the governor of the Bank of Canada, in any way shape or form.
The exception is when the governor is summoned to a Commons or Senate committee hearing on some particular subject of national economic interest. And even then the questioning had better be right on the money, so to speak, or else the politician asking that stupid question will get an earful from the good governor.
That’s because the relationship, between Canada’s central bank and elected politicians, the government actually, has to be something close to pristine in order for Canada to have currency legitimacy.
Translated into English, the central bank has to be able to set interest rates (monetary) policy away from all political influences because to do otherwise would show Canada to be something less than an honest trading broker. It would show us up as being something like a crappy little third world berg.
As to the factors that help set interest rates, the answer is that many issues must come into play including rates charged by close trading partners, inflation, deflation, wars, pestilence and so on. Draw up your own list. It’s complicated out there!
While monetary policy is set by the central bank, fiscal policy is set by the politicians.
Fiscal policy is the budget process and all of the pressures that elected members and non-members (senators) have to deal with from an endless parade of whining special interests, all of which will be the sum-total death of us all if we don’t them all to shut the hell up. Forever.
These days, moreso than in previous decades, central banking is a dangerous business. I’m sure the current governor must sometimes wonder why the heck he signed up for the job because he is without envy everywhere, is my guess.
I must note that, at the end of the day, Canada’s central bank, through the governor, is accountable to the people of Canada, because it is actually an arm of government and is therefore obliged to file an annual report to Parliament of its various comings and goings during the previous year.
BTW, if you’re NOT cuurently elected to public office, you may send governor Mark Carney a message about your economic thoughts. Afterall, works for you!
This is what people digressed to be. They want redistribution of wealth. Nobody should use TFSA advantages if there are “poor” people that cannot contribute to TFSA. Author also somehow concludes that only rich use TFSA. His play with numbers looks scary, but masks the fact that $19M spread over 4.8M accounts gives only $4000 average per account. It’s really rich for supposed “rich” users. Somewhat offsetting are comments to the article, interesting to read as well. Enjoy:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/the-economists/who-really-benefits-from-tfsa-the-wealthy-for-sure/article1976138/
I thought the US dollar was going to take a dive during the ’08 meltdown, but instead there was a massive flight to safety by investors and the US dollar rallied hard.
The same thing will happen again. Doesn’t matter what you or I think of the US dollar — or the US as a whole — when the sh*t hits the fan in the US, it’ll be hitting everywhere, and the US dollar will still be viewed as a safer bet than other currencies. And for fiat currency, perception is reality. You can hate it, but don’t bet against it.
You got a point but a lot of the success stories come from immigrants that eventually own their own business (aka evil corporation). Something they could not do back home.
@ 118 Moneta:
I lived under communists until I was 15 years old. Not much, but I remember what it was like. Yes, you are right – those people are well educated AND you are correct that they are good workers. This was the style of the communist regime: make smart workers, not smart entrepreneurs who will think for themselves and are independent in their decisions. I also know many immigrants from that part of the world and they are stars at their jobs. The only thing is: they are still very shy to ask for raises, they always fear that they may lose their jobs, so they keep plugging away quietly, which makes them the “perfect employees”: working hard and keeping their mouths shut.
I was a little more fortunate: I caught the good education (basic skills though, like math, reading, writing) from the soviet era, as well as the opportunity to think more independently, which allowed me to move up the ladder here in Canada. Of course, I got “above expectations” grade in my job performance review for 2010 (in a large Canadian fin-l company). However, the new world didn’t make me forget things that communist regime instilled in me: I also fear of losing my job – regardless of how well I do it, I am extremely debt-averse (currently debt-free), I keep my mouth shut most of the time, except when I ask for raises :)
MOM! MEATLOAF!
Carolmel and I are hungry, WE NEED MORE MEATLOAF!
I also need to borrow $75…
Here’s a link so we can all follow along when the merits of the US and Cad dollar are discussed
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY:IND
i’m still buying US
and by the way: as an immigrant, I understand very well the Canadians who hate immigrants – these people basically steal jobs from Canadians (unless the jobs are very low-pay and Canadians don’t want to do them), and they inflate house prices in Vancouver and TO (mostly), which makes the houses less affordable for Canadians. And I laugh at and never believe Canadians who tell me that “immigration is good for Canada” just to sound like nice people. Read comments to articles that touch immigration in any way and you see the real picture. I am totally ok with Canadians hating me. Really!
But what can we immigrants do? Canada opened the doors and we came in. An opportunity was offered to us and we took it. And the majority of us work our arses off, establish new businesses, pay taxes, volunteer (I did), etc. We know you hate us, but we don’t care, because we didn’t come here for just us, but mostly for our kids. You were lucky to be born here. We were lucky to be let in. And regardless of what you guys say – the government will keep letting us in.
I will make sure my kids are at the top of their classes – to make sure some immigrants don’t steal their jobs. I suggest you all do the same – lots of hungry ones coming here. Read “Tiger Mom” book. That’s why you only see Asians and Indians in math-heavy jobs – I am speaking from my own experience.
Just my random thoughts…
#101 Utopia:
He’s worth listening to. I believe it was also Ben Tal who was one of the first to identify a resurgence in US manufacturing. I have heard anecdotal evidence of this myself, as more American companies are bringing manufacturing back home from places like China. Given a high Can dollar and a large labour pool in the Southern US, I think that the US could soon become a major competitor for Canadian jobs, let alone China or Mexico, etc.
#115 Alpha Bravo:
I agree with you, and Ben Tal’s report would support your assertion. However, 91,000 full-time jobs is still 91,000 full-time jobs. In the US, this would equate to almost 900,000 new full-time jobs. Could you imagine how markets would react to that news under current circumstances? What a confidence booster that would be!
FROM JIM SINCLAIR SITE:
“This is the first time old friend Jim Sinclair has said hyperinflation is “assured” – IE, certain, not just possible or likely. Jim says: “The madness will not stop. The situation is over the edge. The damage is done. Hyperinflation is assured.” I’m afraid Jim is right. Governments could have prevented it, but didn’t want to pay the price. Fiat currencies will pay the price. The US dollar will both waterfall and lose its reserve currency status which in turn will ignite rampant inflation.
Jim adds: “The new reserve currency will be a virtual currency (an average of the major currencies). It will be (remotely) tied to gold via a worldwide M3 type liquidity. It won’t be convertible (will be used between central banks, not you and I). Today’s existing currencies will continue to be used but valued one to the other. A measure will be created similar to the old M3 (which reveals government pumping) but to reflect their entire past money creation. Upon initiation, the M3 level and the level of gold will be considered as 100 on the virtual index. Contributions of gold to BIS or IMF (agent of the virtual reserve currency) to participating currencies in the index will have to rise to meet rising liquidity. All situations, like now, will resolve themselves via a commodity currency. That is the entire story.”
Garth, I think your recent posts illustrate your logical approach to owning / buying real estate with such simplicity. Too bad there are still some who don’t get it. For all of those who are desperate to own because you crave stainless and granite, please be cautious and aware of what home ownership really entails if you have never owned.
I am in my late 40’s and was a home owner for half my life. Now I see things with such clarity because my former spouse and I made a lot of mistakes and I see my story repeating itself with so many out there.
First came a pool and the landscaping. Then the finishing of the basement, installation of hardwood floors, new kitchen and all new appliances, new furniture and artwork and ‘stuff’. Then came replacement of things – pool liner and heater, a/c unit, furnace, roof and windows. The kids had activities – dance & music lessons and sports, summer camps, expensive toys, clothes and dental bills. Let’s not forget having nice vehicles and vacations. All this was thanks to the bank constantly refinancing our mortgage.
My ex lost his job during the marriage (a few times) and we relied on the line of credit in order to pay the bank for all we owed. The bank really loved us then – why wouldn’t they? They owned us and they knew it, and we just kept coming back for more.
The nice small manageable mortgage that we started with eventually grew into a big hemorrhoid on our butts. So by the time the marriage ended, all property divided and eventually sold, I was lucky that there was something left to move forward with. The only saving grace was that the market value of the home continued to grow during that time – something that recent home purchasers definitely cannot bank on going forward.
Now I’m happily remarried and living debt-free in a beautiful rented house in one of the most desirable parts of Oakville, while our savings and investments continue to grow. We can focus our energy on enjoying life.
Those bricks and mortar that everyone seems so desperate to own can be a heavy burden to carry for all of those who ‘want it now’ and continue spending like millionaires. I know from first-hand experience.
(PS – to 45 north – We travel to NYC a few times a year – stay away from restaurants around Times Square. We have found that a lot are ridiculously overpriced tourist traps.)
Moneta, you should start your own blog. I would read it.
Inflation Tsunami ‘a comin.
http://www.benzinga.com/commodities/11/04/990821/oil-is-going-back-to-150-widespread-inflation-to-take-hold#
I’m sure glad I didn’t let anyone talk me out of my gold, silver and all the energy plays I bought dirt cheap.
#135Mike-Yes. The average person doesn’t have enough motivation to be an immigrant-to migrate anywhere. The vast majority of humans won’t leave the place of their birth no matter how bad things get. This is one of the major positives of immigration-the migrants are more driven than those left behind.
#140Real-When people label you as a wingnut for your investment choices it often means you are on the right track-when the average person starts feeling PMs are a good choice that is the time to worry.
On thing not mentioned on this site is property taxes and the potential threat going forward-Toronto taxes are extremely low right now compared to most NA cities-here is a typical example-how is some couple buying a place for 800 thou supposed to come up with 20 grand a yr out of pocket for tax? http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-Detail/2911-N-Racine-Ave_Chicago_IL_60657_M70839-35595
First off, I second the opinion expressed by #139 I. Muvrini, I would definitely visit a blog written by Moneta…keep the great posts coming!
Also I wanted to say hi to MikeT who immigrated here (part of his post is re-pasted below). I think you’re right that some people will say they like immigration but they don’t mean it. And there may be many of them.
But there are a lot of people (including me) that genuinely appreciate the perspectives and skills that can only come through immigration. I am fortunate to work with people from all over the world and wouldn’t trade that experience for anything. And I’m not saying this “to be nice”.
I think there are more people who appreciate you than you might know. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
#135 MikeT on 04.08.11 at 4:55 pm
and by the way: as an immigrant, I understand very well the Canadians who hate immigrants – these people basically steal jobs from Canadians (unless the jobs are very low-pay and Canadians don’t want to do them), and they inflate house prices in Vancouver and TO (mostly), which makes the houses less affordable for Canadians. And I laugh at and never believe Canadians who tell me that “immigration is good for Canada” just to sound like nice people. Read comments to articles that touch immigration in any way and you see the real picture. I am totally ok with Canadians hating me. Really!
#129Azza-What most cannot grasp is that the whole “socialist” agenda is funded by those at the top of the pyramid. So “rich” keeps getting re-defined to mean those with less and less-and these “rich” must share. Meanwhile, the elite get a free ride-totally. Jamie Dimon was all over the media the other day saying how the rich should pay-he means anyone middle class or slightly better. This guy takes his money directly from the US taxpayer and he is worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
#247 Utopia on 03.27.11 at 12:48 pm
That means the dollar is about to bounce exactly as I predicted and that the Euro will soon fall (starting pretty much any day now).
So how is that working for you smart ass?
___________________________________________
1. Let me remind people of your clearly incorrect comments from a few weeks back. March -27… including the nice insult…. i’ll answer the question. it’s working out SPECTACULARLY for me, smart ass. for YOU, i imagine, you’re getting CRUSHED yet again.
#97 Utopia on 04.08.11 at 1:01 pm
What is your proof of a collpase? (try to offer an explanation and rationalization without all the insults if you can manage that)
__________________________________________
2. do i really owe a BLOWHARD such as yourself an explaination? i doubt it. the dollar has been collapsing now for a DECADE, and that collapse is going to ACCELERATE in the coming months. that’s a fact. only some ass that likes to hear himself talk constanly (or in this case, post constantly) can’t see the dollar collapsing.
it’s actually embarrasing reading your posts telling people there is deflation. only the truly naive or uneducated could belive such lunacy.
>>Carlysle!
Hope you and wife enjoy your new area, and get lots of shelves. Sobeys should come in handy, 24/7 too in’t it
————————————————
>>Re: S.B. (ie. #60): posting about cityplace being a ghetto, blah blah
It’s all in the eye of the beholder
— depends where one has lived before, and what they’re seeing out there that’s available, for comparable rental price
–many can testify to apt areas that really are like ‘ghettos’- outside and in–streetcar ride away.
There’s so many factors to consider, everything has its good and bad points. Some just have more bad points..
But, TO, izz a city–there’s not going to be luscious lawns and clear views to the lake around each building/unit
Heyy, so you have 20 other units able to see into yours and vv.
One adapts,.. just like those wonderful ‘burbs with similar houses in rows, backing and fronting and siding into your neighbours’ windows and raised decks, and hearing their dogs barking incessantly – though you bought-or rented-a detached house so you could get some privacy, and maybe some control of noise –ahh- good and bad points–both ways
————————————————-
>>#42. BPOE
Thought you’d know better than to believe everything you read.
Think you need to come back to Ontario, see what you’re missing.
Hi Nostra, Do you now anything about
The Codex Alimentarius (Latin for “food book”)?
Here is a quick over view on YouTube video ~3min.
There is more if you care to look.
The ‘Truth’ About Codex Alimentarius – Make up your own conclusions. ~3min
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhON1WN48tQ
Hi Garth, FYI off topic, strange yet interesting.
‘Fighting Fire With Electricity’
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/fossil-fuels/fighting-fire-with-electricity
And some other info. on Japan nuclear issue;
‘Aftershock Hit Other Nuke Plants Harder than Fukushima.’
http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/energy/nuclear/aftershock-hit-other-nuke-plants-harder-than-fukushima
and
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/nuclear
hope everyone doesn’t think that it’s only low end places that go into foreclosure–check out the 2 below–these are up in Westwood Plateau–Coquitlam–more foreclosures around this “Street of Dreams” area than anyone can imagine
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10454594&PidKey=1361132311
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10198661&PidKey=-1287654125
how would you like to have the proceeds from the “alleged” grow op in 3113 Plateau
where are all the oriental owners going to go when they sell their homes up there –to Vancouver–right–
lots of price drops in the high end stuff as well– many homes have been listed for several years and are sitting empty
when prices start dropping it’s like a contagious disease– nothings safe
The only mystery’s why so few can see.
The only mystery is why do I keep seeing sold signs? All over the GTA.
TS
and that was only 10 years ago.
Folks, GTA is going down HARD. The reason why is because everyone, and I mean EVERYONE is moving to Vancouver now. Who the hell wouldn’t want to? Here in Vancouver, we’re slated to have like 4,000,000 new condos in inventory or something like that. Wait, maybe its 4,000. Makes no difference though because material facts simply don’t matter here. This is where it is at, folks! People just don’t seem to get it. You too can have it all, including trannies on nearly every street corner, rain over 250 days a year, Canada’s worst drivers, shit-hole/dated condos, the best black tar heroin that a McDonalds cheeseburger can buy, and food-born illnesses out the ass… LITERALLY! Why, in fact, I had some Kung Pao Chicken/Kitten just last night and it was delicious – minus the little paw I found in my soup! I have to admit though that it hurt like crazy expelling it all evening and this morning and throughout the better half of this afternoon. But, I’m back as new and I feel great, except for my brown star having been wrecked. Damn, my poor keister’s been through a lot over the past week including sweet little Carolmel and his/her bag of tricks (although I wouldn’t recommend the trick with the jumper cables again). I’m slated for reconstructive anal surgery sometime in 2016 and I’m really looking forward to it. Folks, you really need to come here and take a visit if you haven’t done it recently. Folks, you’ll find there are many people here just like you, except for massive the Asian population though. You see, they’re RICH RICH RICH and they love the rain. And because you aren’t, you really wouldn’t fit in with them. But, you’ll fit in just fine with all the other like-minded service industry workers who live nearly 40 Kilometers out of town. Its a real blast and… F*CK! I think I just felt a bite on my taint. Yes, yes it is… Oh no… NO NO NO NO NO… I just found another little biter. Where there’s one, there must be a thousand more. Damn that Carolmel! I will NOT be using his/her other two sessions this evening as discussed with him/her. Fiddlesticks!
@ #58 CTO:
You reference guava.ca, but then state that the guava stats (GTA stats) don’t show housing having 10 straight months of YOY declines?
Or – are you taking this to mean “sales declined for 10 months straight”? That could basically never happen (because of seasonality — May will always exceed December), but the # of sales has been lower year-over-year for 10 straight months. To make this 11 straight, the April 2011 sales would need to be below the 10898 of April 2010 — which is almost assured, given that last April was ridiculously busy (over 2000 more sales than any previous April), and there are a very very small number of listings out there right now.
…”The $1 billion in projected spending on Libya is just one tenth of one percent of the over $1 trillion the United States has spent so far on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Looked at another way, the likely costs of the Libyan mission are the equivalent of less than four days of spending on the war in Afghanistan.
And that’s the point. Those genuinely concerned about war costs need to go where the money is — Afghanistan. The Pentagon has asked for $113 billion to fight the war there for this year, roughly two and one-half times what has been requested to support the United States’ dwindling commitment in Iraq. That gap will only increase as troop numbers in Iraq continue to fall. To put this in some perspective, the entire Gross Domestic Product of Afghanistan is about $29 billion per year, which means that annual U.S. expenditures on the war are nearly four times the value of the entire Afghan economy. That number would obviously change if the drug economy were taken into account, but it is stunning nonetheless.”
William D. Hartung is the director of the Arms and Security Project at the Center for International Policy and the author of Prophets of War: Lockheed Martin and the Making of the Military-Industrial Complex (Nation Books, 2011).
http://www.ciponline.org/pressroom/articles/040711_Hartung_The_Libya_Intervention.html
Department of Defense FY 2012 Budget (Department of Defense) (page 6-1) (pdf)
BRETTON WOODS DECISIONS
Closing address by Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau. July 22, 1944.
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Source:
Pamphlet No. 4, PILLARS OF PEACE
Documents Pertaining To American Interest In Establishing A Lasting World Peace:
January 1941-February 1946
Published by the Book Department, Army Information School,
Carlisle Barracks, Pa., May 1946
——————————————————————————–
I am gratified to announce that the Conference at Bretton Woods has completed successfully the task before it.
It was, as we knew when we began, a difficult task, involving complicated technical problems. We came to work out methods which would do away with the economic evils-the competitive currency devaluation and destructive impediments to trade-which preceded the present war. We have succeeded in that effort.
The actual details of a financial and monetary agreement may seem mysterious to the general public. Yet at the heart of it lie the most elementary bread and butter realities of daily life. What we have done here in Bretton Woods is to devise machinery by which men and women everywhere can exchange freely, on a fair and stable basis, the goods which they produce through fair labor. And we have taken the initial step through which the nations of the world will be able to help one another in economic development to their mutual advantage and for the enrichment of all…
and to drive only the usurious money lenders from the temple of international finance. For my own part, I cannot look upon the outcome with any sense of
Page 35
dismay. Capital, like any other commodity, should be free from monopoly control and available upon reasonable terms to those who would put it to use for the general welfare.
http://www.ibiblio.org/pha/policy/1944/440722b.html
betamax, not so this time. The USA goverment wants to print money to pay down debt & create jobs. Also Gold is safer for Middle East Countries to accumulate, no fear of confiscation. Debt clock doesn’t help the dollar either.
#140 realpaul on 04.08.11 at 6:24 pm
Inflation Tsunami ‘a comin.
http://www.benzinga.com/commodities/11/04/990821/oil-is-going-back-to-150-widespread-inflation-to-take-hold#
I’m sure glad I didn’t let anyone talk me out of my gold, silver and all the energy plays I bought dirt cheap.
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AMEN to that brother, amen to that!
Greetings: Does this article sound familiar??
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10718150
to the fake BPOE please keep posting!!
You crack me up.
#135 MikeT Re immigration. You sound like everyone wants to immigrate in Canada. I can name you at least three people from my past experience (one of them is my hubby’s brother; he was offered to come here a couple of years ago and decided to stay in Ukraine) who would tell “no”. Reasons? Uncertainty, different language, traditions, boyfriends/girlfriends/husbands/wives whining about “… what I gonna do there?” Shall I continue? And don’t forget to check CIC website – government restricting rules for Skilled Workers nominates. Cheers.
Are there any options available to actually short real estate in a slightly leveraged manner and profit from this impending collapse?
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#148 GregW, Oakville — Thanks for the link. Any way anyone looks at it, we’re pretty much screwed. So, to quote Jimi Hendrix, ” If I don’t see you here, I’ll see you on the other side and don’t be late!”
#156 jess — Bretton Woods II Convened by George Soros. Does anyone feel the noose tightening around our necks?
4:11 clip Gerald Celente. Love him or hate him, he loses his rag and blows up at the west. He also names the three women who began this. 6:08 clip Let the Euro sink! Plus Bail ‘Til You Fail Seems engineered from here.
3:51 clip Inflation’s a-comin’! Theory only Killing America’s economy.
Obama’s Dictatorship How the mighty have fallen, to treat the lesser among us in this manner. Moving ahead or back?
Gold and Oil. 5:56 clip.
Using Crops as fuel (so sheeple are starved).
Iraq US troops staying? Why not. They have pretty much destroyed the country by searching for those invisible WMD, but never fear — there is always Libya “Libya has never attacked the US, and only Congress can declare war.” wrh.com.
How Convenient “This, coupled with corn production shortages and potential radioactive contamination of foodstuffs from Japan, Pacific Rim fish and ultimately radioactive contamination of food in the US, means that decent food, globally, may well be in short supply for some time to come.” wrh.com. Wasn’t corn supposed to be used for ethanol or something? Corn Stockpiles.
Now here is a novel idea — to keep govt. open, tax rich corporations. It’s such a fuzzballed idea, it may just work! Govt. shutdown not recommended (they still need a paycheque!).
Iceland One down, thousands to go.
Cutting Jobs Dutch govt. won’t be joining any illegal wars soon.
CC It’s changing alright. Temps. are still decreasing!
Flight from Japan I’ve only experienced a couple of tremors, both in Port Coquitlam where we used to live. I cannot imagine Japan.
*nominees
What is even more astounding to me, no shocking to me is how all of these people can live across the border in Canada and watch with front row seats the US housing market collapse yet still believe that when we have to pay 5,6,9 even 11x household income for a house that we have nothing to worry about? This must be where the expression “deer in headlights” comes from.
I talked with my dentist earlier today, an educated, articulate man ( 2 Degrees ) and he actually believes we are in for a real estate boom in Edmonton around the price of oil. One really wonders…
AT #165: Jsan, well said. Although I would have said, “You can’t fix STUPID!”
Schetagne also noted that of the 480,900 jobs gained by the Canadian economy since the low point of the recession in July 2009, 77 per cent have been in three categories: construction, professional and scientific services, and health care. Gains in those areas are largely due to the influx of stimulus money from the federal government, he suggested. Those taps are now being shut off as the stimulus money runs out.
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/971437–canadians-giving-up-on-finding-new-work
The next couple of years are going to be very interesting…
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/08/coxe-sees-turning-point-for-markets/
[…] Siddelly at greaterfool.ca 7 Apr 2011 11:44pm – “If you thought Point Grey RE could get any weirder, it appears there are now signs of a flipping frenzy occurring. As my step-mom awaits her check for her recent sale at 11th and Camosun for 2.5 million, the home across the street which was cited in moms listing as being recently listed at 1.8 and sold at 2.5 is-wait for it- back on the market today with a fresh price of 2.88 million and offers to be taken shortly apparently. The ad states that they can build you your dream home which sells by the way, for over 5 million. Up up and away!” […]
#146 Oasis
“it’s actually embarrasing reading your posts telling people there is deflation. only the truly naive or uneducated could belive such lunacy”
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Hunh?? The average home value in the US has dropped a stunning 35% average across America in just a few years and looks set to repeat the process for the forseeable future.
Do you really think that is inflation?
Canadian housing prices are already in decline in many markets. On this site we regularly hear stories like the folks in victoria who took a loss of over 40 thousand on a recent home sale.
Is that inflation?
Do you really think that because you pay 15 cents a liter more in gas that the big inflation genie is out while your house and basic wealth gets gutted by tens of thousands of dollars is a good comparison?
Go ahead Oasis. Fret over your grocery bill and pricey vegetables. Other people, like most of America, are having real problems right now.
And it is certainly called deflation.
#77 max – “#23 The Phantom- so true. I, one of many proud savers, will only consider spending and doing “my bit”for the economy when, and only when, interest rates normalize.”
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If you are a saver, then you are already doing your part for the economy. Production drive real economies. Savers provide the capital for production. So without savers, there can be no real productive activity.
Consumers who use credit to consume, actually help to destroy the economy. The world has followed the silly notion that consumption drives an economy, hence the problems in Europe, North America (and soon) China.