Elephant in the room

Fewer words, more pix today. Canada’s about to enter a phase of adjustment few people are prepared for. I think the material below speaks for itself. Maclean’s columnist Jason Kirby thought blog dogs might like to see what happens if Yale Economist Robert Shiller’s now-famous chart of US real estate values since 1980, that looks like this…

…had a Canadian version, showing the extent of our current bubble. “I think your readers would find it quite interesting,” says Kirby. “Sure puts the dramatic run-up in prices in some historical context.”

Sure does. The trouble is we have no good Canadian data going back 125 years, so Shiller drew a chart assuming Canadian prices were more or less like US ones until our verifiable numbers clicked in, around 1990. “This is just to give an impression how unusual things are in Canada now,” Shiller says. (By the way, he is the guy who correctly predicted both the dot-com bust and the US house crash.) “Canada is going through a major historic boom, at least in comparison with booms in the US before 1990.”

So here is our chart…

For those who think the vertical line at the end will keep going up forever, please refer to the US chart above. Prices (of almost anything) always revert to their mean. That includes stocks, commodities, vintage Harleys or houses. The higher the trip up, the more interesting the trip back. And it’s coming.

The epicentre, we all know, will be Vancouver. Rarely in Canadian history have so many people in one place flipped out at the same time. The bubble mentality is everywhere – on TV, in Tim’s, in the papers, in the workplace and the downtown bank branches where hairdressers are given $700,000 mortgage pre-approvals. Deluded into thinking whole airplanes of Chinese are en route to steal their houses, and you must buy now or forever be priced out, thousands of families are walking into a debt trap which will destroy them.

Here are four pieces of evidence. Just bought by four families. Problem? What problem?

God help them.

Asked $1.7 million. Sold $2.1 million. Listing.

Asked $1.9 million. Sold $2.6 million. Listing.

Asked $2.4 million. Sold $2.5 million. Listing.

Asked $2.0 million. Sold $2.0 million. Listing

267 comments ↓

#1 JJ on 03.11.11 at 10:02 pm

first…again

#2 Ayn Rand on 03.11.11 at 10:09 pm

MMMMM, mmmmmm, mnmmmm. Thanks Garth, much appreciated! Keep those fab pics of fab guys coming.

I am particular to Johnny Depp (hint, hint).

Too bad we did not have such great housing data here in Canada (that non RE folks would have access to). And I wonder why not?

#3 Cannon on 03.11.11 at 10:11 pm

What is driving this insanity? If there are millions of people with HAM, do the fundamentals of income growth to prices no longer apply? It must. But why Vancouver? Why not SoCal with its better climate? Tell me I want to know.

#4 incredible on 03.11.11 at 10:13 pm

I would have a hard time paying $200K for that last house.

Seriously, $2 million? wow.

I’d rather move into Obama’s house for less than $800K
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5046-S-Greenwood-Ave-Chicago-IL-60615/50904051_zpid/

#5 RE 4 EVA on 03.11.11 at 10:15 pm

Assets don’t go up forever, but long enough that this blog won’t matter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=XOM+Interactive#symbol=XOM;range=my

Oops! Sorry renters!

#6 [email protected] on 03.11.11 at 10:15 pm

Wow nice flight of stairs on the third one.

Stop the insanity…

#7 Sitting on the Sidelines on 03.11.11 at 10:21 pm

The house I’m in (just around the corner from the Trafalger listing) just sold to a group of over 60’s who are going to “develop” the lot and in turn hope to fund their sad retirements. They paid $250,000 over list for a tear-down on a 33′ lot and are now having trouble getting financing for their plans after having made a deposit and a firm bid – appraisal number three is coming up because none of the previous appraisers have come in anywhere near where they “need” them to be to get financing. I suspect that when the new “development” is completed – in say, a year – they will be hard pressed to make anywhere near the $2.5M they will need to break even. I am not a developer but I can’t see paying $1.5M for a small lot gives one much leeway for a good profit. The “developers” have mortgaged themselves to the max and are borrowing on top of that – not a clever financial decision. The buyers are not Asian by the way.

#8 Tim on 03.11.11 at 10:27 pm

Take the $30 Billion Dollar Quiz: Which abuse of power is Harper Regime’s Greatest Legislative Accomplishment of 2011?

https://www.liberal.ca/harper-regime-quiz/?utm_source=lbst&utm_medium=e_blast_en&utm_campaign=30bquiz

#9 i.am.not.first on 03.11.11 at 10:32 pm

darn!!

#10 Jeff on 03.11.11 at 10:33 pm

The Safe Part of Your Portfolio Could get you into Trouble

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/preet-banerjee/the-safe-part-of-your-portfolio-could-get-you-into-trouble/article1936623/

#11 Jeff on 03.11.11 at 10:34 pm

A Return to Equities

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/03/10/buy-sell-a-return-to-equities/

Despite the big rally in equity markets since March 2009, David Burrows believes a broader reallocation to equities from fixed income has only just begun in the past few months. The president and chief investment strategist at Barometer Capital Management points out this is happening both at the pension fund level and with private investors.

#12 Cyrus on 03.11.11 at 10:36 pm

I found a great site for investment advice.

#13 Peter in Barrie on 03.11.11 at 10:44 pm

I continue to follow your blog daily, Garth. At work today, one of my colleagues was saying that she and her husband are considering buying another house as a rental property. They figure it is a safer investment than the stock market. They are both university educated (teacher). I wonder if they even bother doing their own homework. Not hard to figure out that even the best prognostications are that house are not going to continue rising in the near or distant future.

Nice, affirming charts.

#14 TheFirstRick on 03.11.11 at 10:45 pm

#3 Cannon on 03.11.11 at 10:11 pm

What is driving this insanity? If there are millions of people with HAM, do the fundamentals of income growth to prices no longer apply? It must. But why Vancouver? Why not SoCal with its better climate? Tell me I want to know.

++++++++++++++

In SoCal the crackheads get busted. In Vancouver, they get promoted.

#15 LJ on 03.11.11 at 10:46 pm

Gotta love those sales. The prudent investor could buy a dozen better homes down in the US for the same price.

When the Vancouver market pops, it will be a sight to behold! It will scare the pants off of the entire nation (just hope that it is summer and we don’t all get cold fannies).

#16 prairie gal on 03.11.11 at 10:49 pm

For us science and fact minded folk, that is pretty hard evidence right there. Emotions run high right now, but that is fleeting. Fundamentals persist.

#17 KingBubbles on 03.11.11 at 10:50 pm

Thanks Garth,

Nice view of a bloated Canadian real estate market…

I wonder what it would look like if realtors charged a fixed fee rather than a percentage.

#18 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.11.11 at 11:09 pm

“Just bought by four families.”

Hardly… they were just bought by either:
A) A bunch of drug money
B) A bunch of offshore money
C) 95% financing

Either way, not a “family” moving in — more like a pile of cash being laundered or someone speculating.

Any idea if CMHC is back-stopping the cash for these places? Now that would be classic: helping the “low income Canadian who can’t afford a house” by insuring the mortgage on a $2M dump.

#19 F on 03.11.11 at 11:10 pm

I’d love to know who’s buying these places at these prices. If anybody lives in the one these areas, please knock on the door and see who answers and please report back. I am very curious.

#20 Pr on 03.11.11 at 11:12 pm

Nightmare! Those prices are… i dont have any more words. Its over!

#21 Tim on 03.11.11 at 11:13 pm

Do you have any idea of the percentage of homes sold in Richmond in the last year were to wealthy Chinese?

I know our Govt doesn’t care about us Canadians, we’re slowly being forced out of our communities due to the insane housing costs

#22 Tiffa on 03.11.11 at 11:15 pm

I look at pictures and videos of Japan, today, and feel an ache in the pit of my stomach, equal parts heartbreak for people, and a visceral fear of the possibility of such natural disaster here in coastal BC.

It’s not entirely unlike the feeling I get when I look at those graphs….

#23 Utopia on 03.11.11 at 11:16 pm

A thanks is due to Jason Kirby and to Robert Shiller for the efforts they have made here today….Thanks.

With luck your insights will finally start to sink into a few thick skulls in this country.

And to Garth…Seriously man, do you actually have R.Shiller on speed dial? Just when I thought I really knew you. A new surprise every day…

#24 Tim on 03.11.11 at 11:18 pm

Over 500,000 millionaires in China. How many houses does that buy in Reechman?

#25 Tim on 03.11.11 at 11:19 pm

CHinese Investors Pouring into Canadian Real Estate (Globe & Mail)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/gary_mason/chinese-investors-once-again-pouring-money-into-canadian-real-estate/article1939457/

““We’re just on the cusp of this,” Mr. Good said. “The massive middle class in China is just now getting to the point where they can afford the international option.”

God help us, we’ll all be moving to northern Ontario…

#26 [email protected] on 03.11.11 at 11:20 pm

Will fallout affect PW coast RE values?

#27 Mr. Reality on 03.11.11 at 11:28 pm

Garth this post nailed it! Now take those charts and look at the TSX, S&P 500 and the Dow. See a top? Get your finances in order.

Mr.R.

#28 Chris in Langley on 03.11.11 at 11:29 pm

Great post Garth,

The graph speaks volumes. I remember you had a post back around Christmas time where you had your wife try to count all the “for sale” signs that had “reduced” stickers on them, while you two were driving away from the center of the universe.

You mentioned the melt happening in the rural areas first and moving towards the bigger cities.

I was out in Aldergrove last night, a small town between Langley and Abbotsford. I didn’t have an exact count because I needed to watch the road, but in about 5 minutes of driving down the Fraser Hwy. I noticed between 15 and 20 “for lease” signs. I have never seen such a thing in the this area. Lots of vacant buildings in this small community.

Quite a vivid example of what is going on in our economy and what is right around the corner.

#29 JO on 03.11.11 at 11:30 pm

Can’t wait for this fraudulent economic model to come to an end…what a charade..since when does an everyday man/woman have to pay inflated housing prices, the most extreme form of regressive taxation, and be forced to subsidize the morons taking on the debt ? Most will realize by 2013-2015 how screwed they are. Once they add up all the interest on debt (including the excessive, uneeded debt taken on due to buying a home 2003 onward), property taxes, rising utilities, user fees, sales taxes, income taxes, etc,it will sink in they own nothing and have had most of their income consumed by the banks and government sector..until then, most keep feeding the machine and living the illusion…

Talk about a rude awakening
JO

#30 dissin on 03.11.11 at 11:34 pm

Australian housing bubble is bad but not that bad! We don’t have dog boxes selling for $2m….just $1m

Our bubble is similar to Canada’s and there is a feeling we are at the edge. Even main stream media is talking about it.

#31 Utopia on 03.11.11 at 11:45 pm

To Rosie, Brian1, Love This Blog, Victoria Tea Party, Two-Thirds, Pjwlk, 45North and others who have left comments and some very kind words for me over the last few days..

Thanks everyone.

You remarks were really appreciated. I apologize for having not responded before now but this past week was crazy on the markets.

It looks like the long awaited correction may finally be here. Next week could well confirm the trend. Now may finally be the time for Bears to get a decent meal or two just in time for spring.

(We need our fast food too!)

#32 GooderFool on 03.11.11 at 11:50 pm

Does anyone have any ideas on how to short Vancouver residential real estate?

#33 Boombust on 03.11.11 at 11:53 pm

I’m with Susan Powter.

“Stop the insanity!”

#34 WesternGrit on 03.11.11 at 11:55 pm

I drive through Abbotsford, Aldergrove, and Langley every day… Not pretty out there. I know 3 developers who are sitting on home inventory for months – in all three cities. We live in Fairview – and walking distance to some of the homes above. I wouldn’t even think of any of them. Wife and I thought about how our almost paid off 2 bedroom 1100 sq ft condo would sell and let us move into one of the Olympic village condos. There, you can RENT a 2 bdrm on the waterfront for only $1900/month – and it’s negotiable…

We’re seriously thinking of ditching and renting one of those units.

#35 April on 03.12.11 at 12:02 am

Alex and Poco. Always like your posts.

Listings in New West sitting for months. I don’t think N/W is part of the Tricities but is close enough that the housing market situation is much the same I would imagine.

#36 Into the Sunset on 03.12.11 at 12:03 am

The first west coast sunami coming in the very near future will be in the form of a wall of financial shock 20 meters high and the aftermath a historical devestation of debt drowned individuals with absolutely no assistance available from any quarter.

#37 Bobby on 03.12.11 at 12:03 am

I work in Asia and chuckle when I hear of the Chinese investor pouring money into real estate in Vancouver. It has nothing to do with fundamentals and everything to do with just following the herd.

Let’s remember the Chinese will get into a lineup and wait just to see why people are lining up.

This reminds me of the atmospheric rise of Hong Kong real estate just prior to the handover in 1997. Mainland Chinese also fueled that rise but it came crashing down with many properties losing over 50% of their value. Many of those properties have yet to return to the bubble levels of 1997.

I wouldn’t put much stock in so called Chinese investors. I would go the other way.

#38 Dave in Victoria on 03.12.11 at 12:08 am

Good laugh going into the weekend, thanks. 2.5 million for a bung ‘a’ hole in a city that has little more than an attractive vista, that is if you can see it, through the smog and stench of festering Vancouver ‘specials’.

Darwin is watching.

#39 City Slicker on 03.12.11 at 12:10 am

The chart shows the housing collapse in the 80’s and 90’s, so every decade. Garth why did it miss a decade in 2000 and now 20 years later it looks due for a correction seeings how the spike is 3 times the size of the bubble in the 80’s and 90’s.

#40 Rick in Japan on 03.12.11 at 12:14 am

Tim,
You are either a troll or an idiot. Ever been to China? No, getting chicken fried rice and egg rolls does not count.
Do you really think all those millionaires in China want to give up a lifestyle of maids, servants, terrific food and everything else that goes with it to stand in a Timmy’s lineup with a Tim like you??? I lived in Hong Kong, and generally speaking, many rich Chinese (the poor cannot afford the BS prices in TO/VAN) who want to move to Canada are racist (oops-I am not supposed to say that!) who want a Canadian passport (insurance) access to universities for their kids and health care when they are older and they potentially move to Canada in the future after spending their obligatory 2 years in Canada to obtain citizenship–oh, there is another thing called ‘face’ that they get while sitting around the yum cha table back in China bragging about their multiple passports. So, while there are a small (getting smaller) minority of Chinese who are like that (ie get all of the above while living in a Chinese bubble in Canada) the vast majority do not want to leave the middle kingdom and look down on Canadians like you, Tim (oh, and me), but might be willing to put up with Canada for a while it really is a small number. There are still more who want to go to the ‘Golden Mountain’ as America is called in Cantonese.
Try and get out a bit. . . of course if the Chinese want Canadian real estate bargains, there is always Timmon Ontario, or try beautiful Kirkland Lake. . .hey for the phony best place on earth, Prince Rupert, Ocean Falls, Alice Arm and Port Essington all have ‘bargains’.

#41 Rick in Japan on 03.12.11 at 12:19 am

Actually Tim,
I scanned the posts and thought you were NOSTY JR. or Best Place on Earth (the same guy, I presume). I should read your posts more carefully. So, I did not mean to call you a troll/idiot. Apologies. But, what I said after wards holds true.

#42 bill on 03.12.11 at 12:20 am

#28 Chris in Langley
did you go by rosedale [ just up the road towards chilliwack]
i have heard that it isnt doing so hot either.
melting from the edges?

#43 Bubble Butt on 03.12.11 at 12:22 am

#25
CHinese Investors Pouring into Canadian Real Estate (Globe & Mail)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/gary_mason/chinese-investors-once-again-pouring-money-into-canadian-real-estate/article1939457/

““We’re just on the cusp of this,” Mr. Good said. “The massive middle class in China is just now getting to the point where they can afford the international option.”

God help us, we’ll all be moving to northern Ontario…

___________________________________________
#23
Over 500,000 millionaires in China.
___________________________________________
This is what people on the Lower Mainland fail to see. They don’t understand where/how the money is arriving, but it is. Open your small minds folks, there is a bubble, yes, but it is not as big as you think it is. There is more money in Asia than you can understand. Just because you live your lazy, privileged existence over on this end of the earth doesn’t mean that everyone ascribes to that same philosophy. The Asians are working 72 hour weeks and they are coming for YOU and your homes. . .there is over 1billion of them and even if a fraction of them have enough money to buy in at these still “reasonable” prices you renters are S.O.L!

Hongcouver is not a joke. . .this part of Canada is quickly becoming an extension of Asia.

The prices won’t fall. . .but YOU WILL have to move out of Vancouver if you want a house.

#44 SophieZombie on 03.12.11 at 12:30 am

I recognize the first house ! House Number 3 from http://www.crackshackormansion.com game.
I wonder if Petr Pospisil and his girlfriend, Ola Rogula authors of the game are one of the blog dogs. :)

#45 wes_coast on 03.12.11 at 12:40 am

Hey! To all you nay sayers in the flat boring part of Canada – its different here. We’re surrounded by mountains and running out of land and are being invaded by plane loads of Asian investors with limitless piles of cash. 2 mil for a sh*t hole is a steal around here. (Sorry, I had to experience the feeling of having my head up my a$$ – I don’t recommend it). This will not end well.

#46 BC Bring Cash on 03.12.11 at 12:53 am

Been watching the activity at the Town House Development at the corner of Lakeshore & DeHart in Kelowna BC. called the Enclave. The sales office went up and closed due to lack of interest before the ground was broken. See ya in the spring the sign on the door said. Spring came and Phase 1 was built and sold. phase 2 was built last summer and looks like it is mostly vacant. Phase 3 concrete was poured last fall and remains as such. I see no building activity at all. Must be an eye sore for the suckers that bought into this Okanagan Dream of home ownership. Mud and concrete foundations to look at. That wasn’t on the sales brochure, I’m sure of that. Kelowna is ground zero of the BC interior RE scene. Visitors have always said that you live in such a beautiful place. My response has been that you can’t make a living looking at the scenery.

#47 Subversive on 03.12.11 at 12:55 am

That first house is hawt.

#48 SafetyBear on 03.12.11 at 1:02 am

Spare a thought then for Australia. The whole economy including myself (self employed, rent, $10k of $60k savings spent on IVF already. Pension $35k. Lost 40% of overseas income due to strong Aussie dollar caused supposedly by stupid mining boom) getting wiped out by a financial armaggeddon caused by a bubble that makes Canada’s…the USA’s….even China’s….look like they should all try a bit harder. It doesn’t matter that I’m not drowning in debt like some of my less fortunate or astute neighbours (a friend on Facebook paid $412k in Melbourne for a two bedroom unit that you could comfortably fit two of into our rental and actually went “woot” about the second mortgage.) because everyone gets hurt whether they like it or not. I get poorer. They get a LOT poorer and the same familiar bastards get richer. Every stinking time.

#49 Skeptic on 03.12.11 at 1:16 am

I am starting to think it’ll never really turn around here in Vancouver. It’s defied logic for too long. I’ve rented well into my 40s, seen my marriage end mostly because I refused to buy when prices were high (they were “low” compared to where they are now), and have been nothing but patient. But my patience is almost at an end.

Don’t quote me that stupid “Markets can remain irrational far longer than you or I can remain solvent.” What if the market remains “irrational” for twenty years? This is life, not some esoteric [email protected]#$ argument. I keep telling people it’ll turn around, but my heart’s not in it as much as it was in previous years. When will/would you admit you were wrong, Garth? Next year? 2020?

I’m not sure how important it would be if I bought and prices did reverse by, say, 20%. Who cares? What bonus do we get for being right in the long run?

#50 Burnt Norton on 03.12.11 at 1:29 am

#18 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.11.11 at 11:09 pm

The correct answer is C – our banker confirmed the other day that there is a flood of young professionals in Vancouver looking to secure high-ratio mortgages before the rules change, and of course the bank is glad to accommodate them.

#51 Lance on 03.12.11 at 1:29 am

Looking at the first house on your list…

Sale price of $2.6m. Purchased only for the land, the house will no doubt be gone shortly.

1/6th of an acre.

That puts the price at $16 million per acre.

Nuts.

#52 Larry on 03.12.11 at 1:30 am

Most likely, the houses shown in this blog were bought by the rich foreigners/chinese. So it should really not be a problem. I thought the average house price in van should really be adjusted by rejecting the prices paid by rich foreigners in order to get a true picture of the real average price vs income level.

Otherwise, the avg price vs income level is meaningless.

#53 Timing is Everything on 03.12.11 at 1:42 am

C’mon Garth, Ya gotta live somewhere. Haaaaa! Haaa!

Sorry about that…..I’m back now.

A little somethin’ extra in my sno-cone tonite.

Hows ’bout…Crisis? What Crisis?

#54 Dont Tell Garth on 03.12.11 at 1:45 am

Psst… Psst…. I an’t talk too loud, and don’t tell Garth, but it’s me Shawn Allen the InvestorsFriend.

Garth banned me yesterday (Friday morning) for a remark I made to him – I told him not to tell me what to do after he told me to stick to stocks after I pointed out the interest rate risk of bonds.

Anyhow…

I need your help.

You all know I provide great comments on this site and links to excellent articles.

So, how about all those who appreciate my honest and well-thought out comments and links, post a comment in support of bringing me back.

It’s the only hope, ’cause I ain’t about to beg the G man himself.

It’s all up to you folks now.

And we all know that some nutbars will vote to cast me off this pathetic island, so those few sensible people among you, please vote for me. Vote loud and vote often.

I’m counting on you.

You are welcome to post here. But this blog is not a marketing tool for your newsletter-promoting site. Buy an ad. — Garth

#55 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.12.11 at 1:55 am


“. . . thousands of families are walking into a debt trap which will destroy them. Here are four pieces of evidence. Just bought by four families. Problem? What problem? God help them.”

One issue here is that these families had options. They could have moved 30-60 minutes away and bought a better value-for-money home; or they could have rented for a few more years, saving and improving their downpayment.

It was the couples themselves, with the help of realtors, who chose the purchasing option and, as said before, each must live with the consequences of their own choices.

It was good to see charts placed, to give bloggers here a realistic view of what is going on. Add to that the household (and other) debt(s), and anyone can see we’re blackened toast.
*
#199 Macrath on 03.11.11 at 10:07 pm — “They have been used in the past to quell descent. Very effective on an unarmed crowd.”

Indeed. Another authoritarian dictatorship — Do as I say, not as I do.
*
China Another view, and ECB stuff plus Anticipated Greek default.

9:52 clip HAARP and ‘quakes better explained, and Colored Clouds? Becoming more consistent.

If reactors in Japan fail, Hawaii and the west coast could end up with the fallout.

Subduction Zone map. SAF, Yellowstone and NMF have also had their watches upped for the new few weeks.

Self Sufficiency TPTB worst nightmare, as they have no control over us.

Chaos, you may find this interesting, and Hypothetical Question leading to this.

Weird Numbers 11 day, 2011 (year) third month.

Honeybee Collapse may be worldwide.

Major War and How much oil does an ounce of gold buy?

#56 Jane on 03.12.11 at 1:59 am

Thanks for the visuals and great post, Garth.

#57 Roial1 on 03.12.11 at 2:01 am

Cyrus on 03.11.11 at 10:36 pm
I found a great site for investment advice.

http://www.turnertomenson.ca

Garth, does this mean that you c-c-c-c-commute all the way to the “Big smoke”?

Must scare the hell out of all the other commuters with that Hummer hey?

I wish I had a gas station on that route.

#58 The Original Dave on 03.12.11 at 2:30 am

I would love more info on the subject. I would prefer to walk into your office and pay for the service but I am capable on clicking on a few buttons especially if you make it very specific as to what exact product to purchase. Any info greatly appreciated. You are a great person for sharing all your information over the years, I have learned an invaluable amount of knowledge from you. Thanks for keeping us up to date.

————————————————

now why would you want to do that???? You’re not saving money by doing it yourself. Do you know how to re-balance, or are you going to ask again? It’s 1% that you pay. You don’t seem to know what you’re doing, so the 1% you think you’re saving, will be chopped by you not earning as much as you should, or even losing money in a down market.

Not worth the head ache. To each his own.

#59 Dirt Dog on 03.12.11 at 2:34 am

Any word from Chad…

#60 The Original Dave on 03.12.11 at 2:40 am

we need some more Kelowna stories. To me that is ground zero in Canada.

I will take bets that Kelowna gets clobbered the most.

#61 Crash Callaway on 03.12.11 at 2:51 am

History will show that Vancouver was not guilty by reason of insanity.
All 4 of those properties combined are not worth 1 mil.

In the land of milk & honey where it’s always eternally sunny and bright why are things so friggin shady.
Probably only a matter of time before the realtors start banging the drum that all the newly displaced Japanese are going to need houses.
Probably create another bubble of olympic proportion.

#62 Future Expatriate on 03.12.11 at 3:18 am

Do any of them have an indoor toilet?

Well, then, that explains everything. Outhouses are so, so 1900’s. Indoor plumbing? Why, that’s a MANSION. Worth well over a million dollars.

When those teardown shacks are selling for what they are really worth, i.e., $110,000 TOPS, cooler heads will laugh all the way to the bank.

You could buy one of those POS for $25,000 in Vegas, in immaculate condition for a hovel. IF they hadn’t torn them all down already.

#63 Mean Gene on 03.12.11 at 3:20 am

Snap a beer, sit back, relax and watch the mayhem unfold.

#64 Aquarian on 03.12.11 at 5:06 am

It’s such a zero sum game. The people selling these places must feel like they’ve won the lottery. Who is giving out mortgages on these properties?
Obviously Van City is about to go bust, what about the rest of Canada?

#65 Jas Girn on 03.12.11 at 6:42 am

I feel bad for the people of BC because they are prone to ecological disasters (who knows when they will be hit by a tsunami) and financial ruin. Imagine living in a doghouse worth a million and then the market tumbles. What would you do? Our government let this happen and surely, the Chinese will come and help right? Let’s see…

#66 Joe in NB on 03.12.11 at 7:56 am

Hey Garth,

I follow your posts, equally for the pics and the posts, but rarely comment. I really don’t get how such a small piece of land and sad excuse for a house can draw 2 million while 5 year old 3000 sq ft homes here in NB on 2+ acres of land, and just 20 min from the city are on the market for around $350,000.

What could possibly possess people to want to live in Vancouver over the beautiful, peaceful, and family friendly suburbs of Saint John? I just don’t get it!

Anyone with a telecommuting job like me (Software Engineer / DBA working remotely for a US company) would be set out here in NB!

#67 March of the Pigs on 03.12.11 at 8:00 am

I got to move to Vancouver and start selling real estate, make no wonder the agents don’t like you, they have a limited time to rape an entire population for their own personal gain, it’s like having the winning lottery ticket and someone saying that it’s out of date…

#68 Brian1 on 03.12.11 at 8:13 am

Jeff: Preet Banerjee gives a great bond example, though I think he bets on inflation. If we can keep those bond examples coming we might become professional.

#69 Brian1 on 03.12.11 at 8:25 am

Conrad Black wrote a piece for Financial Post entitled ‘The Purpose of Prison’. Yes, I too laughed and balked, at first. Then I read. It was insightful. Not the Lord I thought. I always thought he made a mistake seeking a lordship. Maybe he was trying to make a statement because Chretrien seemed to dislike him. Perhaps I have matured because I am going to read him when I can even if only for his talented writing. Welcome back.

#70 Brian1 on 03.12.11 at 8:45 am

#25 Tim: The Chinese massive middle class. Ha Ha. That’s rich.

Gooder Fool: Nice idea.

#71 Smoking Man on 03.12.11 at 8:53 am

Sorry to point this out but

RE in Canada is still WINNING………..

#72 Moneta on 03.12.11 at 9:07 am

Vancouver:

So within the next 24 hours, we’ll be finding out if the buyers just paid 1 million + 1 million for the radioactive pixie dust.

#73 adam on 03.12.11 at 9:23 am

Garth – Good Post.

As I read it and looked at the charts, I rubbed my hands together like an eager young boy at christmas, thinking to myself “Soon it will all be over”. But then, I scrolled down and looked at the houses you posted, which sold for much more than asking, and I actually felt something I haven’t felt in a while when it comes to the housing market – sympathy. The reality is that, even though we would like to think all of these houses are being purchased by evil, wealthy chinese immigrants, the reality is that a lot of our fellow canadians have gotten sucked in lately, many of whom are good people. There is no doubt that the market is going to crash, and crash big, but my question is, who will be held accountable for this? This is going to result in significant lifetime debt for many couples. Not only will people have their equity wiped out entirely, but if prices drop enough, we will see foreclosures and bankruptcies. Quite serious and sad. I have consistently said that we will see prices drop 25-30%. And in 2008, when we experienced the almost 20% drop, I figured “another 10%, and we should stabalize”. But then, the market not only regained the 20%, but went up another 10-20%. So now, we are in for an even bigger drop. When this is all said and done, by 2015, I think we will have seen a near 40% drop in Vancouver, and possibly 50% or higher in some urban communities like Kelowna, Abbotsford, Nanaimo and Victoria. The biggest story in the end, is going to be the olympic condos… these things are not going to sell, even with reduced prices, and there’s such a massive inventory that they are single handidly going to drag the condo market down with them. The olympic condos will serve as the ultimate definition of the meltdown. But yeah, in the end, who loses? Bob Rennie wins… he is a millionaire in his million dollar Burnaby house with his fancy cars. Who loses? Honest hard working citizens who have been PUMPED into buying real estate by those they trust. Shame on the media, shame on real estate agents who only care about a sale, shame on banks for giving mortgages to anyone with a pulse.

#74 Love this Blog on 03.12.11 at 9:36 am

#8 Tim,

are you Soylent Green in disguise?? I think you are on the wrong blog.

#75 UK lurker on 03.12.11 at 10:03 am

That Robert Shiller graph is the classic profile of a bubble. All bubbles follow this exact process. The link below contains the graph, notice how similar it is to the Vancouver graph.

http://steadfastfinances.com/blog/2009/11/14/the-psychology-of-bubbles-using-hindsight-to-examine-why-we-bought-into-the-hype/

Obviously the US graph has reached the capitulation phase and heading for despair.

Canada is clearly approaching/passing the “New Paradigm” phase. Things have foreover changed because of the chinese/low interest rates bla bla.

Now look at the UK graph found on this page:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/index.php

The UK has just passed the return to normal blip and is now entering capitulation, and it really is here. Sales have collapsed and fear is in the air with most economists now predicting significant falls.

Everyone who follows this blog who has been saving and waiting should really take note of this classic return to normal blip as it is a trap that hoovers up all the remaining suckers (hence why it’s called the suckers rally).

I was in Vancouver last week, and a couple I know are thinking of selling up and renting as they have made a fortune on their property. Now they haven’t read this blog, or anything like this, they are considering this strategy because a friend who is in real estate and has proved very Savvy in the past says that the Vancouver market is near its peak and this spring may be the last chance to realise profits for a very long time. This is a realtor saying this. They did say the chinese were buying some of the best homes, but they either buy in areas where there are lots of other chinese, or they buy condos to flip or rent.

The latter strategy has worked for them in China, and they are no doubt borrowing on the back of real estate gains there, but the Chinese bubble will eventually implode, as it has in Japan, Dubai, the US, Ireland, Spain, and as it did in Hong Kong. The Chinese are the biggest gamblers on earth and while they have benefitted from globalisation in the past decade, much of their recent wealth generation has come from their own overheated property market. This will go the same way as all other markets. That will result in a massive withdrawal of liuquidity from the Canadian market just as home grown demand evaporates.

Vancouver is the California of Canada, no doubt about it. Some areas will always be expensive, but others will crash big style.

I just returned to the UK from Toronto last night. I live in a city called Brighton. I live in the nice bit, Hove. This town is like Vancouver in many ways in that local earnings are low, and property has exploded insanely over the past decade. Last month houses in my post code dropped 11% in value, the biggest fall I have ever seen. Sales have completely collapsed. If it’s not different here, then it’s not different in Canada or Vancouver.

#76 Utopia on 03.12.11 at 10:22 am

In Libya, the forces of Mr Gadaffi are succeeding in crushing the volunteer opposition despite unanimous condemnation of his government by the world community.

There is now a very specific threat to the collective will and authority of Nato, the EU, United Nations Security Council, Gulf Arab States, the Arab League and African Union.

If cities in Libya continue to fall to the Gadaffi forces it is inevitable that the leadership representing the Libyan Opposition National Council (LONC) will eventually fall to the forces of the Gadaffi regime as it reclaims power.

Bengazzi cannot be lost.

To not act is to bring on a situation where the world community will be drawn into a land war in Libya. They will be compelled to act on behalf of an opposition that has been beaten and imprisoned by government forces.

We are still at a stage of the game where the opposition is in a good position. One where it can defeat Gadaffi if enabled with appropriate hardware and a the imposition of a No-Fly Zone.

Let us therefore allow the Libyan opposition to carry the day as they fight back by offering more than just stern words and speeches to give them confidence.

The time has come to act and this can be done with or without the support of China and Russia. There is virtual unanimity already amongst the regional countries and government bodies with very few exceptions.

The alternative is to dither as permissions are sought from two permanent members of the council while in the background Gadaffi and his mercenary army have moved quickly to retake the country and neutralize the opposition and its leadership.

The outcome (if the opposition leadership is lost) will result eventually in direct military intervention from Nato to rebalance the equation. That means boots on the ground and an outcome that is extremely distastful to not only Liyans but to most of the Arab countries in the region.

One step needs to be taken now. The No-Fly zone.

It is therefore time to act decisively and to assist the people of Libya as they have clearly requested to put an end to four decades of crude autocratic rule by a despotic madman and his spoiled children.

#77 phinny on 03.12.11 at 10:28 am

If that reactor blows, and the fallout hitches a ride in the JetStream all the way to VanTown, I wonder how the realtors will spin it?

Like, maybe saving money on your electricity bill because all the buildings are glowing?

Grow super-sized Tomacco?

Hmmmm.

#78 Daisy Mae on 03.12.11 at 10:45 am

Jo said: “since when does an everyday man/woman have to pay inflated housing prices, the most extreme form of regressive taxation, and be forced to subsidize the morons taking on the debt.”

No one HAS to, or is being FORCED to do, anything.

#79 March of the Pigs on 03.12.11 at 10:59 am

#73 Daisy Mae

So how do you go about buying a house?

When my parents bought their house it was less than 2 times income now it’s over 4 places like Vancouver are much worse. Inflated house prices do much more harm than good get your head out of your ass and look at the States

#80 Spiltbongwater on 03.12.11 at 11:16 am

If the radiation hitches a ride on the jet stream, then B.C. will have to introduce a radiation tax, problem solved ldo.

#81 [email protected] on 03.12.11 at 11:37 am

Chinese investors thanks for investing on the west coast.

East Coast RE values just went up, along with gas food etc.

#82 Diffrent on 03.12.11 at 11:43 am

I heard the mainland Chinese have renamed Vancouver. It’s now called Pon-Zhi city.

#83 Ex-Cowtown on 03.12.11 at 11:49 am

Calgary prices are dropping YOY. If you bought at 5-35 last March, you are within a hair of being upside down. And that is not even counting your RE and closing fees. OOOPS…..

http://www.findcalgary.ca/page_content-19.html

And the fun begins.

#84 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.12.11 at 11:50 am

@ #78 March of the Pigs

So how do you go about buying a house?

When my parents bought their house it was less than 2 times income now it’s over 4 places like Vancouver are much worse. Inflated house prices do much more harm than good get your head out of your ass and look at the States

I believe that the point was — no one HAS to buy a house… and, the more people realise that, the less demand there will be, and prices will revert back to historic norms. In the very near future (say, starting March 18th after the 35-yr amortization disappears), this should become more and more obvious to the sheeple out there.

#85 S.B. on 03.12.11 at 11:52 am

Utopia: your comments abour world affairs ignore one important fact; that is, every single dictator in power today is in place by serving a strategic interest, with the blessings of the powers-that-be (the West, or otherwise).

In 1991 USA rained death & destruction on Iraq, to liberate the oil, but LEFT Saddam in power! Why? He served a strategic interest. Then, later, he became uppity and was taken out (“We know he has WMD”, blah blah).

Ditto for Noregia. Perhaps he wanted too large of a cut in USA drug profits?

Castro? Cuba serves as a US concentration camp (their Gaza), and a handy torture base Gitmo. He is left in power, very valuable for propaganda purposes. If for no other reason than to scare Americans.

Post-WW2, Europe decended into brutal communism regimes. Did we lift a finger to “liberate” them again? Nope! Communism served a strategic purpose, if none other than to scare americans with the Cold War and suck their tax dollars into massive defense spending.
After it’s allowed collapse, into the power void they thust the total EU central command structure upon Europe. How’s that working out…

Ditto for Chavez. Gaddaffi? Run an internet search to see pictures of him being heartely welcomed and greeted by G8 leaders.

The brutal Saudi Terror regime? Wonderful friends of the Bush family and oil cartel. What a swell time we are in for on our planet, eh?

Today we weep for the Japanese quake victims, yet a generation ago we had no issues with wiping out a generation in the first and only Nuclear WMD holocaust (burnt offering), metted out to innocent Japenese civillians.

Nothing has changed, but the targets of propaganda.

#86 Mrs Loquacious on 03.12.11 at 11:53 am

Thank you for the first pic of RPattz. He is so *dreamy* ;)

#87 The American on 03.12.11 at 11:54 am

AT #24 and #25: Tim, the Chinese have 500,000 millionaires, which is hardly any at all when you consider their population is 1.4Billion. Sh*t, that’s really quite pathetic if you think about it. Canada has half the number of millionaires as China, but Canada is only 2.4% the size of China. Those “rich Chinese” aren’t going to do sh*t for the Canadian real estate market in way of saving it.

#88 S.B. on 03.12.11 at 11:55 am

#48 Skeptic on 03.12.11 at 1:16 am

As Garth would say: So BUY then! Buy buy buy! Buy now. Don’t listen to him or this pathetic, wretched, blog’s comments. Don’t second guess yourself.

#89 Joe Realtor on 03.12.11 at 11:56 am

From the front lines…. some sellers still don’t get it, though it seems some buyers do.

House for sale this past week in the GTA.
Seller wanted a bidding war. Held offers one night.
Got three offers.
The seller directed his agent to send them all back for more $.
All three buyers walked.
No sale.

House is now still on the market.

D’oh.

#90 The American on 03.12.11 at 12:00 pm

Vancouver correction coming…. NEW NUMBERS. I’ve been saying the correction in Vancouver would be “well over 40%, guaranteed.” I am sticking firmly to my mantra. However, new info suggest the correction in Vancouver will now be well over 50%. NO WAY AROUND IT, FOLKS. That’s why we call it “the Miami of Canada”

#91 Joe on 03.12.11 at 12:07 pm

The run up in prices is mostly attributed to something that’s not discussed here: the desire to live in the city where one isn’t dependent on driving a car and for a lot of adults without children, it makes perfect financial sense. Only problem is the demand to live in the core of Vancouver or Toronto is through the roof compared to the supply in the area and any attempt at adding any significant amount of supply in these areas is confronted with NIMBYism. Could be because of the noise, the length of the construction, or just the greed of neighbouring property owners seeking to restrict supply so they can continously demand more money for their property.

The only areas that will see a major real estate downturn are the suburbs.

#92 AxeHead on 03.12.11 at 12:19 pm

Holy Shit – the chart and those listings!

#93 Herb on 03.12.11 at 12:20 pm

#12 Cyrus, #56 Roial1,

did you get a load of those mugshots, especially the cat on the right?

#47 SafetyBear,

… everyone gets hurt whether they like it or not. I get poorer. They get a LOT poorer and the same familiar bastards get richer. Every stinking time.

Thanks. Says all there is to say about what’s happening, but how do we break the cycle?

#94 AxeHead on 03.12.11 at 12:32 pm

I have a house EXACTLY like the 2nd one here in Red Deer, Alberta, vintage late 1950’s. Paid 175k for it 6 years ago. It’s now worth about 220K and I think it’s overpriced.

#95 The ride has to end on 03.12.11 at 12:41 pm

RE in Canada is going down the tubes. Sales continue to fall each and every month for the last nine months. Realtors like myself have been selling more homes for builders then resale homes. Once the march 18 comes to pass I fear the worst as even all the so called sunshine in the media is not really working and when deadline passes then what? Lucky for myself have made a bundle of money over the years and saved up a huge nest egg with the thoughts of moving to costa rica to retire as so many other retired Americans realtors have done after making a boat load of money. My wife wants to live somewhere warm as we ride out the fallout years in Canada. My wife is from costa rica so really it was her choice to go there but Miami seems to be better that’s similar to living in Canada plus I could work . Please do not put the blame on realtors since people want to hear what they want and that is good for buisness. What would you like us to tell people? We are at the top of a housing bubble and you will lose your home like the millions of Americans?

#96 vreaa on 03.12.11 at 12:45 pm

Great Vancouver examples. They are jaw-droppers even for those of us at the eye of the storm.

Related:

Vegas Versus Vancouver, 1987-Present

http://wp.me/pcq1o-1Zy

One interesting aspect of this comparison is that, in 1987, when a loonie was worth about 70c US, the average detached home in Vancouver cost roughly the same as the average house in Las Vegas. Now, in 2011, the house in Vancouver costs more than 6 times the house in Vegas.

#97 Alister on 03.12.11 at 1:00 pm

I could live in some of the worlds most beautiful paradises for those prices. In fact, any place where moss doesn’t grow on the roof and the walls would be better. SHEESH.

I have been a investor in stocks, options, RE, gold, you name it since 1989. One thing I have learned, everyone looks like a genius when theyre ridin the wave up, but when the market reverses, people call you an idiot. Markets turn on a dime, and that includes RE.

My point is, if you have a 30 to 40 year mortgage attached to you, you will look like an idiot for your whole life if this RE bubble cracks. You won’t be walking away from that mortgage like some states allow.

It would probably ruin your marriage and your image with the coworkers that you bragged to when the house was going up.

Van RE risk reward ratio is very high right now.

#98 Macrath on 03.12.11 at 1:14 pm

Japan Nuclear Plant Explosion Raises Fears Of Meltdown

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjx-JlwYtyE&feature=player_embedded

#99 observer on 03.12.11 at 1:17 pm

Shiller’s been calling for the Canadian real estate market to collapse since 2008.

Once again, predictions have no credibility unless they are timely, correct and of the right magnitude. Thus far, Shiller is wrong on all three counts. Obstinately crying wolf for three years in a row just doesn’t cut it in the world of financial prescience.

Oh and Garth, analogy is NOT analysis.

#100 JT on 03.12.11 at 1:18 pm

If you were lucky enough to have a downpayment for a house in Vancouver in the 60’s and early 70s then you are laughing right now and have been since 1986 (when vancouver was discovered apparently). You have ten times more money than what you originally invested.
From 1987, it has been a bad deal. And the reason why is this: very few people make enough money to own a house and to have a life. Its that simple. Where I live Vancouver) the people I know haven’t received more than a 2% raise for so long they can’t even remember. If you are the working class, putting 50% of everything you earn into housing will ruin your life and should you be “married” it will ruin your marriage too. Nearly every marital spat is over the lack of money .

Some of my friends got lucky, very lucky. But the majority of them can’t afford to take in a movie or go to lunch (and its been this way for years) because they have mortgage, the taxes, the assessments, etc. And they are boring people indeed.

In my view, life is too short – and not everyone is going to see 90. If you can’t travel, see some culture and entertainment, then what is the point? Maybe I’m just one of those people who do not see life as a grind.

But what I really resent is being made to feel badly because I’m a renter. I invest (with Garth actually) but I wasn’t lucky enough to have a legacy dropped on me in the 60’s so I’m not a homeowner. And I’m actually going to stop being friends with those who think I’m a loser because I’m not a homeowner.

I can’t afford it and neither can most of us.

#101 Victoria on 03.12.11 at 1:25 pm

Hi! I wonder if all this HAM is coming to Vancouver why it is not coming to Victoria? They could get waterfront!

You would think some would like to come here!

(I have asked this question before I know but it still puzzles me)

#102 Timing is Everything on 03.12.11 at 1:31 pm

#63 Aquarian – said “Who is giving out mortgages on these properties?”

Probably 3 out of 4 of the those ‘deals’ were all cash.

#103 Utopia on 03.12.11 at 1:36 pm

This is an addition to my previous commentary in reference to Libya and the ongoing conflict in that country.

As we all know by now the only holdouts on the UN Security Council against establishing a No-Fly Zone in Libya are the permanent members of China and Russia.

This has created a very unique situation as they stand opposed to near universal condemnation of the acts of brutality now taking place in that country.

It begs questions as to motives and interestingly pits those nations against the world community without offering any clear explanation of their reluctance to commit.

As acts of war against civilians have mounted and an agreement has been reached that crimes against humanity are taking place (which has already led the council to refer the Gadaffi regime to the scrutiny of the International Criminal Courts) there remains the doubt of the needed unanimous consent to take the prescribed actions required to end the disaster now in progress.

I believe that both Russia and China are missing an opportunity to establish credibility in the eyes of the world at a time when they seek greater inclusion into the decision making process of the bodies to which they are signatories.

They are losing face and legitimacy too as billions across the globe look on in horror and witness the events taking place daily on the streets of Libya that stand in defiance of the demands of the global community for a cessation of violence.

Has a better opportunity ever been afforded those nations to take a firm stand that the world clearly supports? And do they, by their reluctance to support the end to a decrepit regime not undermine their legitimacy everywhere?

These are easy questions. If the UN bodies are to function effectively, fairly and with transparency then these two countries must be seen to be acting effectively and in support of the will of the global community.

To not do so puts them at odds with the majority and leaves them open to criticism in the future as any other decisions will come in to doubt.

Will China and Russia then begin to behave like adults on the world stage and take a responsible position or will they act like selfish children and cooperate only where their own goals and needs are affected?

The question I am posing to both Russia and China is this: Do you want authority in the future and if so are you now prepared to take a stand against one little dictator and his family or will you choose old style politics and the small minds of regional thinking to make your decisions?

If you want to be a real part of the global community and have a respected voice in international affairs that suits the positions you hold then it is time to grow up and start acting like adults on the world stage, not children.

We are after all, only talking about one lunatic dictator.

This is not a very big risk.

#104 Tim on 03.12.11 at 1:38 pm

re#41 Rick in Japan
Rick, if what is happening is beyond your ability to grasp, then why don’t you take a drive through Richmond and see for yourself?

#105 Mike on 03.12.11 at 1:44 pm

Most people don’t understand what is involved in setting up a no fly zone. First you have to bomb the country in order for their air defenses to light up and reveal their locations. Moammar Gadhafi and his goons know this and would have strategically placed them near highly dense areas like mosques, schools, and hospitals where civilian casualties would be severe. Than you have to repeat the process several times. As much as we would all like a quick resolution to this crisis it is more than likely going to be a long civil war that will cause oil and gold to increase and will collaspe the recovery sending housing prices lower. Usually when a country interfers with a civil war it does not end well…Vietnam. Much better to have the CIA do covert operations and keep it simple.

#106 Eric on 03.12.11 at 1:46 pm

Skeptic

I’m sorry for you. Sorry that you listened to people that misjudged the Vancouver market, so you stayed out. You are not alone. I know a couple that sold out around 2006 because the market was just about to crash. I wonder where they are now. Still waiting, I guess.

Where will all the money go after a crash? Fine Art?

Buy a place and fill it with artworks. If the place loses value the art may well increase in value as a balance, so you might be even.

At least you’ll live well.

#107 Kitchener1 on 03.12.11 at 1:50 pm

From my personal experience, people lose their ability at seeing a value and be rational when they are invested in whatever may be hot at the moment.

Fundamentals, P/E ratios/ inflow-outflow etc/charts etc.. nothing matters when you are invested in that asset class.

So many Canadians are invested in RE- 70% households are owners that they can;t see the forest from the trees.

Same as nortel/bre x / pets.com etc..

Like car salesmen- when your living depends on what you sell, dont expect honesty. When your financial future is riding on RE appreciation, dont excpet these folks to be rational.

Prices always revert back to mean, ive said it before many times on this blog. The US is going thru it right now, however long the prices are above mean, they will have go under mean equally as long- to maintain equillibrium. math. fact.

Well, at 3.5 times income in GTA, we need to revert to 2.0-2.5 for many years to maintain that 3.5 median. That means a close to 50% drop in price. My personal best case scenerio is 30-35% at best.

Remeber in the 08-09 scare prices were of 30% in less then 12 months and showed NO SIGN of slowing, no one knows were the bottom would have been had it not been for the emergency rates. But 30% is not the bottom by a long shot.

#108 poco on 03.12.11 at 1:57 pm

#48 Skeptic–get a life buddy –whine-whine- whine–if you looked around you’ld see that prices have been dropping in the suburbs of Van for sometime–here in the tri-cities 28 price drops just yesterday
you can believe this little piece of info or not–this week 30 properties were either listed or sold for less or within 10k of what the owner paid 2 or 3 years ago
lots of properties listed for well below what the owners paid–desperate sellers–more and more forclosures–but they still sit with few buyers–where are all the vultures on this blog i read about last spring –you may be missing out on some great deals
and Skeptic, i think i would look at some properties in Pt. Moody for the best deals today–will they go lower –who knows

#109 Chaos on 03.12.11 at 2:02 pm

Vlad…

Uranus/Aquarius/11th House, among other things, rules uranium, nuclear activity, electricity, technology, revolution, bombs, explosions, sudden changes, upheaval, politics, corporate profits, non-conformists, inventions, the future and (dum dum dum…) earthquakes.

I know that for most dawgs…I’ve corned the market on tinfoil…however, believe me when I tell you that the next 8 years are going to be…

a riot.

#110 Morry on 03.12.11 at 2:03 pm

@ #74 UK lurker

Nice post. Love Hove…. have relatives there.

Not sure it’s the same as YVR though in terms of location and buzz.

#111 Timing is Everything on 03.12.11 at 2:04 pm

Reality is so entertaining. I’ll be following this one on a few levels. You can’t stop ‘progress’…Sno-cones happens.

Guarantee…Good luck folks…

http://www.bclocalnews.com/news/117767713.html
———————————————————

Garth, any thoughts on ‘private’ prisons. Kinda seems the latest fad. Are these ‘tax payer government’ built
and privately, for profit, operated? Hmmmm? Something smells here, me thinks.
I did notice Stockwell Day is packing it in after all the great work he has done for Government of Harpe… or is that Canada, I keep getting them mixed-up. I think Harper IS Canada…at least he thinks so…I think?

#112 bojangles on 03.12.11 at 2:11 pm

In no way am I disagreeing with your overall point, but if you are going to feature two charts, some effort should be made, at very least, to have the scales match.

Graphs are some of the most abused statistical tools, so this is far from the most egregious use, but I think your point is made more strongly when there’s no questions about the data being presented.

Be my guest. — Garth

#113 Morry on 03.12.11 at 2:12 pm

Something to think about!

“As I am sure you know, comparing San Francisco market to the other markets is not advisable because San Francisco is a special market for two main reasons:

1) small amount of land available; there is no perimeter of land outside the main buildup. Nearly 100% of the 7 by 7 mile city is already built upon. This is true for most of the Bay Area, from Oakland and Marin down to San Jose. It is the “outer edge” of the expansion outside of the Bay Area, places like Stockton, Santa Rosa, and Gilroy where the new house construction was occurring over the last 10-15 years.

2) the beauty of region makes it a mecca for the very wealthy, which bid up prices; the wealthy are also more insulated from economic downturns than the lower 99% of the population who earn less than $100,000.”

Substitute Vancouver for San Francisco ( and in small part add lower mainland) .

The most that will happen round YVR is a 20% for homes.

#114 Christina Potter on 03.12.11 at 2:37 pm

I sell Real Estate in BC’s Lower Mainland. I’m seeing firsthand how the offshore buyers are driving prices upward to make affordability unrealistic for residents – those who live and work here and are spending their “made-in-Canada” dollars on housing. Offshore buyers seem to be competing against themselves to push the prices upward. I’m not seeing many non-Chinese participating in this process – they just can’t compete. Most are waiting this out, selling high and renting or moving to the suburbs although some suburbs are noticing the effects of Chinese buyers as well ie: Richmond and White Rock (South Surrey). I just sold this http://ow.ly/4d8Ai property for a sweet price – any guesses how MANY offers we had and how much it sold for?

#115 45north on 03.12.11 at 2:56 pm

Utopia: It is therefore time to act decisively and to assist the people of Libya as they have clearly requested to put an end to four decades of crude autocratic rule by a despotic madman and his spoiled children.

now is the time

#116 Timing is Everything on 03.12.11 at 3:13 pm

#65 Joe in NB said – “I really don’t get how such a small piece of land and sad excuse for a house can draw 2 million while 5 year old 3000 sq ft homes here in NB on 2+ acres of land, and just 20 min from the city are on the market for around $350,000.”

RE is local…Supply and demand…

http://images.realtor.ca/listing/reb28/highres/5/392945_1.jpg?PhotoId=634352956975800000

BTW your $350k 3000 sq ft, 2+ acre is over priced… ;)

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9589282&PidKey=1784544538

#117 AG Sage on 03.12.11 at 3:13 pm

#28 Chris in Langley on 03.11.11 at 11:29 pm
> I noticed between 15 and 20 “for lease” signs. I have never seen such a thing in the this area. Lots of vacant buildings in this small community.

Interesting. The convoluted lease to own deals cropped up in Cali right as the crash came on. Often concocted by realtor-owners who had gotten high on their own kool-aid.

#118 Alex Givant on 03.12.11 at 3:14 pm

How you spell “madness”? – V-A-N-C-O-U-V-E-R.

#119 bridgepigeon on 03.12.11 at 3:26 pm

I’m sure Nosty spotted this on Yahoo (nudge), Richmond is sitting at sea level surrounded by dikes which some consider to be insufficient in the event they are really required…Being from southern Ontario I wasn’t aware of that issue, but wouldn’t that fact alone make one reconsider buying there?

#120 Timing is Everything on 03.12.11 at 3:32 pm

#82 Timing is Everything on 03.12.11 at 3:13 pm

#65 Joe in NB

Sorry Joe…here is the first MLS link (Regina)….

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10428525&PidKey=-277529912

Plus these things….$260 per sq. ft.

http://buyinregina.com/129-POPLAR-BLUFF-Crescent-REGINA-mylistings-16082192.property

#121 45north on 03.12.11 at 3:58 pm

Daisy Mae: past your prime?

http://mcaf.ee/a5c09

#122 David on 03.12.11 at 4:24 pm

The graph is interesting, largely because the trajectory looks like the classic bubble pattern. Prices become completely disconnected from reality, never mind family incomes.
There is no actual discrete date when someone says the bubble is over, it really does not matter.
Irrational exuberance knows no boundaries and the it won’t happen here argument is pretty hollow.
Fundamentals only matter when a bubble has turned to dust and people start saying was that ever dumb.
The wealthy Chinese argument sounds so hollow. They can send their fortunes anywhere they choose with only a mouse click and get a better return on their money rather than buying a bungalow in Vancouver for $2 million.

#123 Patz on 03.12.11 at 4:43 pm

@ 68 Brian 1
Brian thanks for that reference to Conrad Black’s article “The Purpose of Prison.” I am no fan of CB pre–incarceration and have no opinion as to whether he was actually guilty of what he was accused of. He was certainly guilty of greed and hubris but if they put people in jail for that, you could fire cannons down Bay and Wall Sts. with no fear of hitting anyone.

Had he not gone to prison I doubt CB would have ever given much thought to penal policy or conditions. But he did and as a result he’s come to understand both deeply. His article should (but won’t) be read by all Canadians. The Cons (the ones still on the outside), if they have their way, will put us further down the road to the brutally dysfunctional US system.

Do yourself a favor and read it, if only for the pleasure of his prose.
http://tiny.cc/t799u

#124 Oasis on 03.12.11 at 4:45 pm

looking over the chart, and what it’s supposed to represent, (inflation adjusted home prices), the data is quite false. someone either doesn’t know what they’re talking about, or purposefully trying to mislead people.

Real estate in toronto at least, has not eclipsed the 1989 peak (inflation adjusted). so, i don’ t know where you’ve found this chart. but it’s garbage. also, the arguement that there isn’t data pre-1990, is also b/s. data goes back for a long time. at least into the early 1950’s.

better luck next time.

You are wrong. — Garth

#125 S.B. on 03.12.11 at 4:48 pm

True story: I was on the subway today and overheard a conversation. Some quotes:

– I’m a new home owner, have a variable rate and am happy with it.
– They will not raise rates fast, so as not to cause a crash.
– We are not like the USA with their sub prime mortgages.

So there you have it, folks! Buying a 550sq foot 400,000k condo with 5% down + CMHC + Land Transfer taxes + closing costs, with ongoing interest and condo fees is not risky!
Everyone’s doing it.

This is like shoeshine boys trading stock tips in 1928.

#126 John on 03.12.11 at 4:58 pm

Can anyone tell me what one of these four houses would rent for?

#127 pathrik M on 03.12.11 at 4:58 pm

In the coming weeks will Harper call an election to avoid the reckoning which is becoming undeniable?

#128 Scare Crow on 03.12.11 at 4:59 pm

Just read a story about how the Tampa Bay airport closed their runways to adjust for a 3 degree polar shift – if that doesn’t make you want to dump your pants and run for cover -….

This whole house of cards – sad, we bought in 2002. I based my purchase on a few financial stress tests.
1) Could we continue to afford our home on only one income

2) Could we continue to afford our mtg at a 11% rate

3) If it had to be, would a 5-10 year plan on staying be fine

..yes to all our questions…and what totally pisses me off, the selfish and greedy act of others will hurt us all – when CMHC has to kick in funds due to massive defaults – its all if us tax payers that will be royally flushed. Who knows – have funds in a bank – market – maybe the government will issue a once in a lifetime emergency and confiscate your money for the interest of our security – (thinks its impossible – read about how the US government did the very same thing to those holding gold) –

People ask when the real fireworks will start, first as the economy loses speed – despair hits mainstream – defaults increase and the media can’t cover the truth – it will be game over – as panic builds, and CMHC will be totally tapped out – and not to destroy the banking sector (and total chaos – with a few nice bank runs to boot ) the government will bail them out (with our money of course) – and even that won’t stem the tide – and Canada will be asking for loans at rates that will strangle the entire nation for years…

So – I only hope for a moderate change – this is not like taking off a bandage – this one is gonna hurt no matter how fast we pull it off – may the financial gods pity our foolish neighbours of excess and we all may learn and move forward in a more stable financial environment –

Bless those and have mercy on us all –

#129 S.B. on 03.12.11 at 5:05 pm

The case for inflation?

Chart: http://www.johnmauldin.com/images/uploads/charts/031111-02.jpg

From this article: http://www.businessinsider.com/and-here-comes-inflation-2011-3

#130 Chris in Langley on 03.12.11 at 5:30 pm

#116 AG Sage on 03.12.11 at 3:13 pm

I’m interested in what you had to say. I forgot to mention that these were retail/commercial/light industrial “for lease” signs.

I don’t know how this relates to what you were talking about in California, but the number of signs stick out like a sore thumb.

These are strip malls and large complexes that are sitting empty. I’ve never seen this sort of glut of retail/commercial space before.

#131 morry on 03.12.11 at 5:39 pm

@Christina Potter
>ten bidders. final price 1.2Mill

#132 morry on 03.12.11 at 5:45 pm

We cannot continue to allow outsiders to buy up land at this breakneck pace. It’s un-healthy and most of the buyers are gamblers and have no interest in Canada and will never be good citizens. These kind of buyers are to be shunned and discouraged, Our government needs to grow a set of cojones and start to legislate these bastards out.

#133 BrianT on 03.12.11 at 5:46 pm

#112Morry-What you don’t understand is that your argument only addresses the likely long term value of Vancouver RE, not the potential for a large correction. Yes, the very rich global elite are doing very well, but in no way does this prevent price decreases if prices are out of whack. Example: look on Streeteasy and you will see an apt for sale at 740 Park Avenue-considered by many to be the world’s premier building. They can’t sell it-it has been for sale for 3 yrs (started at 35 mill now at 23 mill). Your argument is that price is irrelevant-nothing could be further from the truth.

#134 The Original Dave on 03.12.11 at 5:48 pm

Great posts by the u.k guy #74 and poster #106. I think you guys are bang on.

#135 BrianT on 03.12.11 at 5:51 pm

#103Ut-OK we get it-you are important-you should consider politics as a career. Re Libyan dictators: were you whining when Canada was rolling out the red carpet for the guy and his ill gotten loot?

#136 The Original Dave on 03.12.11 at 6:05 pm

I have a question for the UK Lurker

When did you or the public first notice that things were going sour? Did it happen suddenly?

All the experiences, with the exception of the U.S experience, do not get much exposure

#137 AG Sage on 03.12.11 at 6:08 pm

#112 Morry on 03.12.11 at 2:12 pm
>Something to think about!

>“As I am sure you know, comparing San Francisco market to the other markets is not advisable because San Francisco is a special market for two main reasons:

>The most that will happen round YVR is a 20% for homes.

Total GDP, GDP per capita and the powerhouse high tech industries that drive those in SF have NO correlation to BC. Sorry to burst your bubble. (heh)

#138 BPOE on 03.12.11 at 6:10 pm

Nobody in the history of Candian Real Estate has been more WRONG than Shiller. This fool told people to bail out of Vancouver Real Estate over a half decade ago before the true boom started. I guess a broken clock is right twice a day. Shiller should be locked up with Madoff for his shenanigans. How wrong can one person be. Thee worst forecaster period when it comes to Vancouver Real Estate. I would put a sell order in for Vancouver Real Estate when he starts promoting buying Vancouver. Absolutely clueless in every aspect of Vancouver. Americans have no business talking about Vancouver Real Estate especially when they don’t have a grasp of what is going on here. Reader Beware: Shiller = False Prophet. Google search Shiller and the crap he has posted about Vancouver over the last decade. Total gibberish and fear mongering. Many bitter renters have been laid to waste and destroyed their chances of wealth to this charlatan. On a side note what sweet pics Garth has provided us of the POWER of BPOE.

#139 BPOE on 03.12.11 at 6:20 pm

To the American
Are you Shiller posting here? Sad real sad
Typical American smugness. Your stats are hilarious. Too much Seattle’s best I guess got ya all fired up. Please elaborate how you come to your numbers and how you see China stopping investment in Vancouver. We’re all ears. No doubt your installing a sump pump for the ongoing rain coming down in the backwater. 30% down LOL while Vancouver SOARS. Did you not see the pics Garth just posted?In the meantime here is rain barrle Seattle. Gross!
http://www.webcams.travel/webcam/1186511145-Weather-Seattle-Red-Square-Seattle

()()()()()()()()(()
Vancouver correction coming…. NEW NUMBERS. I’ve been saying the correction in Vancouver would be “well over 40%, guaranteed.” I am sticking firmly to my mantra. However, new info suggest the correction in Vancouver will now be well over 50%. NO WAY AROUND IT, FOLKS. That’s why we call it “the Miami of Canada”

#140 phlex on 03.12.11 at 6:28 pm

Hmmmm…looking at the chart, it appears that during the 1940s, home prices rapidly rose from about 70 to 110 (57% rise) and didn’t have any major correction after that.

Then starting in 2000, it rose from about 110 to about 180 where we are today. That’s a 63% rise. Could it not just top out at this level for a few decades instead of correcting?

#141 Siddelly on 03.12.11 at 6:31 pm

Check thisn one out Garth. MLS®: V874279
BC Assessments has this home valued at 1.366 million and the Realtor is starting out almost 200,000 below that with all offers to be presented by Monday night at 7 PM I believe. Those Mainland Chinese may be clawing and kicking each other out of the way to lay their offer down on this one. Interesting times for us West Coasters!

#142 Devore on 03.12.11 at 6:43 pm

#99 observer

Shiller’s been calling for the Canadian real estate market to collapse since 2008.

And he, and everyone else calling the same, have been right in 2008. Then central bank dropped rates to 0. What will they do this time?

#143 Devore on 03.12.11 at 6:44 pm

#99 observer

Obstinately crying wolf for three years in a row just doesn’t cut it in the world of financial prescience.

You know what happens at the end of The Boy Who Cried Wolf? The wolf comes.

#144 jess on 03.12.11 at 6:49 pm

By NATHAN HALVERSON
THE PRESS DEMOCRAT
Sonoma Valley Bank’s downfall

“The bank continued to fund the projects even after it became public in land records and lawsuits that the developers were defaulting on multimillion-dollar loans from other banks and were not paying construction contractors.”

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20110123/articles/110129792?p=1&tc=pg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n887t_FDctg&feature=related
http://www.frequency.com/video/sonoma-valley/2517196

#145 Devore on 03.12.11 at 7:02 pm

#124 phlex

You answered your own question, and you know it. Look at that line running through the middle, labeled 100.

#146 race against time on 03.12.11 at 7:08 pm

“Pimco’s Biggest Fund Dumps [all american]Treasury Bond Holdings”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41990901

What does this mean in light of your previous post about bonds?

Nothing. — Garth

#147 Devore on 03.12.11 at 7:52 pm

#103 Utopia

As we all know by now the only holdouts on the UN Security Council against establishing a No-Fly Zone in Libya are the permanent members of China and Russia.

This has created a very unique situation as they stand opposed to near universal condemnation of the acts of brutality now taking place in that country.

Do you have some evidence to support that China and Russia are NOT condemning the violence, or that they are supporting Gaddafi?

Where was your moral outrage and condemnation for the decades he has been in power? It’s not like he’s changed his stripes overnight. But now, after fattening him up and helping him consolidate power for two generations, we’re to just spring into heroic action, declaring war on a country, bombing into oblivion, no doubt killing thousands of innocent Libyans, to liberate them?

The shortsightedness of western foreign policy, and the people who support it, is downright shocking.

#148 Alex on 03.12.11 at 7:53 pm

BPOE…seriously, man, what are the drugs like in your world?

Meanwhile, back in reality, the eastern Vancouver suburbs and the Fraser Valley continue their descent. Yesterday, four price reductions and five new listings in the $350,000 – $500,000 price range. And that’s *just* Langley, and *just* SFHs. A realtor I know and trust tells me straight-up that things are “slow.”

But don’t rush out to buy yet. Most listings in the sub-$500,000 range are 70s-era boxes in fugly neighbourhoods. Be patient. The game is changing.

Now I go back to work on my continuing Global BC complaint. I did not accept Global’s response, so it now goes in front of a Canadian Broadcast Standards Council panel.

#149 doctore on 03.12.11 at 8:35 pm

was driving around today on my day off after back breaking working shoveling the snow from the big dump yesterday. Came across a realtor agent putting out a sign for open house and saw his parked high end Acura SUV. Then it sort of dawned on me, most realestate agents I have seen around seem to drive high end machines. These people must do quite well, as, if the price of house goes up and up well then the $ value of their commission as well. So basically they all have a vested interest in realestate to continue to rise and not fall as their fixed 5-6% commission $ value would drop. Then I thought of a question, these people that are agents, are they sole propritors or actual employees of large companies such as Royal Lepage etc.? If they were a sole propritor or incorporated entity then they could have substantial tax benefits. So how are these people employed? are they employees or sole propritors or incorporated?

#150 45north on 03.12.11 at 8:44 pm

Devore: talking about Gaddafi: Where was your moral outrage and condemnation for the decades he has been in power?

Gaddafi has been the leader of Libya since his successful military coup of 1969

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muammar_Gaddafi

well I guess my moral outrage was totally non-existent, Libya being a rather far and distant country. It’s not so much a case of me changing my mind but more a case of an evolution of communication. Actually a revolution. The internet, video images with on-the-scene reporting. Also multi-culturalism, in a real sense the arab people I have met in Canada are good people with values that I respect. Ergo I feel for them.

So all-in-all I have changed my mind and may do so without being a hypocrite.

#151 jas on 03.12.11 at 8:46 pm

Garth, I bought your book ‘The Greater Fool’ about 3 years ago. By agreeing with your thought at that time I think I missed excellent opportunity presented by Vancouver real estate then.
Now three years later we are much closer to a bubble condition.
My guess is that in addition to Hong Kong money, drug money is also being pumped into Vancouver real estate in massive way.

(I’m sorry, I posted it in response to your article about bonds. My apology)

It won’t look so ‘excellent’ next year. — Garth

#152 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.12.11 at 9:24 pm


#84 S.B. — “. . . with wiping out a generation in the first and only Nuclear WMD holocaust (burnt offering), metted out to innocent Japenese civillians.”

The US is the only country in the world to have ever used nukes on another. The world’s policeman is an old pensioner now. Time he broke on through to the other side and let someone else hold the reins.

#98 Macrath — “Japan Nuclear Plant Explosion Raises Fears Of Meltdown’

The reactor at Fukushima was set to close this month, so it’s very convenient that the ‘quake happened. “What kind of nuclear power plant? Who owns it? It is a company that wanted to cover up several affairs. The complex of the Fukushima nuclear power plant is one of the largest in Japan. The power plant consists of a total of six reactors, two more are planned. The Fukushima nuclear power plant 1, which was seriously damaged in the earthquake, is 40 years old.” Here and here. 2:09 clip.

#108 Chaos — “. . . the next 8 years are going to be … a riot.” — Hah! Surely you jest!

Speaking of riots, we’re headed to Uncle Sam for a nice break toward the end of April / first coupla weeks in May, so Yellowstone and the NMF will have to keep a low profile until we get back to Bozoland (Harperstone, Canada), then ol’ Yeller can blow big time and continue the cascade ad infinitum!

BTW, I luv being a troo non-conformist! Screw society and stuff the establishment! They are a pair of dumbassed, diddlysquat brain-dead zombies who deserve each other!

Don’t ever conform! Hasta La Pasta!

#147 Devore — “. . . declaring war on a country, bombing into oblivion, no doubt killing thousands of innocent Libyans, to liberate them?”

Same thing with Iraq and their non-existent nuclear WMD. YouTube George W. Bush on Iraq and anyone can see for themselves dubya laughing at the destruction of another country.

So much for the west’s “moral outrage”.

#153 Eric on 03.12.11 at 9:34 pm

It’s doubtful that any of the properties featured in the photos above would be rented out or lived in by the new owners.

Here in Vancouver these properties are selling for the land alone.

#154 VanCity Girl on 03.12.11 at 9:40 pm

A few weeks ago we talked about sentiment. And I can tell you one thing…Sentiment in Vancouver is changing, and it’s changing FAST.

I rent in Vancouver, by choice. I have intelligent, successful, wealthy friends who also rent, by choice. However, I do have some friends who bought properties in 2007 at the peak. They were always convinced real estate only goes up, renting is a waste of money, and 6 months ago they were bragging about their condos being worth 10% more. Well, the story is very different now. They are scared shitless. It’s funny how sentiment can shift within a couple of months, or even days.

On one of the last couple of blogs, someone said something along these lines “How can we be priced out forever, when WE ARE the masses and WE make up the market”. I couldn’t agree more. Sure, there are wealthy Chinese buying houses here and there, helping us fuel this bubble. But no matter how you look at it, we – the locals – make up the majority of the market. And trust me, the Chinese will stop coming. They’re not stupid.

I stopped listening to news and reading newspapers. I stopped telling people that the housing market is going to crash. They all know it. And even if they say otherwise, they are just trying to justify paying $350K for a 1BR condo, that will be worth 30% less this time next year. And there is nothing worse knowing that your house is worth significantly less than your mortgage. Trust me, I have family in Florida. It really changes you as a person.

#155 john m on 03.12.11 at 10:10 pm

Ever consider this is a huge rip-off? For example…2 con men work together..ist buys a house with 5% down holds it for awhile…2nd guy comes along and buys it 5% down(guaranteed of course by CMHC) 2nd guy buys it for a ridiculous price..they split the cash and do this over and over again……only perhaps there are many involved and when the market crashes as it must they will walk with taxpayers holding the tab?

#156 bystander on 03.12.11 at 10:12 pm

#103 Utopia

“I believe that both Russia and China are missing an opportunity to establish credibility in the eyes of the world at a time when they seek greater inclusion into the decision making process of the bodies to which they are signatories.”

[b]Cold war mentality[/b]

#157 Patz on 03.12.11 at 10:34 pm

I apologize if cross posting is a no, no, but I posted this over at vreaa:

Richmond is particularly at risk of soil liquefaction during a severe (probably 6+) quake. Because Richmond lies on basically water–soaked soil it may, or probably will, liquefy, turning into quicksand. Buildings and infrastructure will sink in the most affected areas. Richmond is the last place you want to be if a big one strikes the Lower Mainland.

But for God’s sake, keep it quiet! If the Chinese hear that they might stop coming and buying up the place. Then what?

#158 Brian1 on 03.12.11 at 10:55 pm

Concerning Libya: This is a muslim situation. If it is possible we should ask the newly founded democracies of Iraq and Egypt to vote on whether the US should go in or not. They Know the situation better than we.

#159 The American on 03.12.11 at 10:59 pm

At #138 & #139: B.S.O.E. You’re pathetic really. First, every attempt you make at downing Seattle is easily rebuffed, and I can EASILY show statistical data why Seattle has a better economy, larger population, more diversification, FAR better infrastructure, FAR better and more recognizable companies, better food, better airports, better engineering, better better housing, GDP nearly 3.5 TIMES the size of puny Vancouver’s, better weather, parks, recreation, etc. So, if you spew one more false statement, I WILL BLOW YOUR COWARDLY COVER, and that is a promise. I CAN ACTUALLY BACK UP MY STATEMENTS WITH STATISTICAL DATA. You’ve NEVER provided a single piece of data or evidence to back up your diarrhea of the mouth. (BTW, you might want to update your camera results to actually SHOW Seattle… you’re camera shows the University of Washington.) I’d like to ask you why Chinese are coming here in DROVES to buy properties in Seattle and Bellevue now? Oh yes, I remember, because they now feel Vancouver is WAY overpriced and they simply “don’t like living there.” That’s an actual quote from SEVERAL Chinese buying here now.

Next up, Vancouver is ALREADY going down, and you know it. Would you like me to provide evidence for that as well? If so, just write one more post to taunt and test me. I DARE YOU. >:-) Actually, I’m BEGGING for you to do it.

#160 Brian1 on 03.12.11 at 11:02 pm

Concerning Vancover: I have no doubt that rich Chinese are buying the properties in Vancouver for the sole purpose of escaping from China when the time comes. It is better to sacrifice 1 million than to lose all 30 million. They do not trust their own country, after all, you don’t see Canadians fleeing Canada to buy up American properties do you?

#161 HouseBuster on 03.12.11 at 11:10 pm

Wow…the sellers of those dumps made off with a fortune! Who are the suckers who paid $2 million for those $100K shacks? LMAO

#162 Brian1 on 03.12.11 at 11:12 pm

Concerning the supposed rise in American consumer spending. It must be a rise because it had previously fallen. It’s rise is because of offered incentives and inticements on products and services. Aggregate consumer spending has risen but not in real terms. Also much of the spending is due to those who have given up on their foreclosed houses and are buing tv’s, cars and barbeques instead of paying their mortgages.

#163 The American on 03.12.11 at 11:15 pm

At #138: B.S.O.E, you’re very short-sighted. First, a “half decade” is only FIVE YEARS. Schiller has made many predictions that are quite accurate. His predictions of Vancouver are based in statistical data – not pure faith and pumping as you would do (again, what data have you EVER provided?) Schiller’s predictions are already starting to show through with respect to both Canada and Vancouver in particular. The market there in Vancouver is slowing significantly, and rates really haven’t even shot up yet. Wait until that happens, and then hold on to your f*cking hat :-) I’ll be happy to meet you and show you the errors of your ways. Hell, I’ve already done it to several realturds here in Seattle, and they ALL respect and value my opinion today. 3 years ago, they all told me I was crazy. Today, I receive calls no less than five times a week asking my opinion of the market’s health, where rates are heading, inventory concerns, etc. We’ll see where your foot is in about a year… Oh yes, it will be in your mouth. I can’t wait to point it out to you. :-)

#164 Brian1 on 03.12.11 at 11:19 pm

Addendum: therefore the purchase prices are now deflated so more can be bought but I doubt that GDP will show gains at the end of the year.

#165 GenXer on 03.12.11 at 11:42 pm

Looks like RBC is finally calling for a rate hike:

“It also predicts the Bank of Canada will increase overnight interest rates to two per cent by the end of the year. That would be a full percentage point higher than the central bank’s current policy rate.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/03/11/royal-bank-forecast.html

Also – a recent report by RBC shows Canadian are more optimistic about their ability to pay off debt than their government is:

http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/2011/0309-housing.html

I wonder how Canadian quoted in study number 2 will feel if the outcome predicted in study number 1 come true?

#166 vancouverite on 03.12.11 at 11:43 pm

#100

Apparently they don’t like islands. Although, I think if a few of them got the ball rolling many would follow and probably rather quickly.
Victoria has many lovely homes–although they would tear them down–and lots of fancy private schools.
All the things they seem to like.
Trust me though, you don’t want them.

#167 john m on 03.12.11 at 11:48 pm

#156 HouseBuster on 03.12.11 at 11:10 pm

Wow…the sellers of those dumps made off with a fortune! Who are the suckers who paid $2 million for those $100K shacks? LMAO……….sadly it probably will be us(when CMHC takes them over)

#168 john m on 03.12.11 at 11:55 pm

Looking at those houses and the prices they sold for makes me think something is not kosher! Buyer stupidity is one thing….this is ridiculous….I can not imagine anyone with the ability to buy a home for 1 million dollars even looking at one of these dumps much less living in one.

#169 Timing is Everything on 03.12.11 at 11:58 pm

#150 45north

Agreed….However, OUR oil is still under their sand… ;)

Libya is one of many…How many posters are really doing anything more than ‘lip service’?

#170 morry on 03.13.11 at 12:02 am

#131 BrianT
I am not arguing that YVR=SFO. But they are indeed both highly desirable places to live. If and when the correction comes to RE in the VYR area it will be seen by MANY as a buying opportunity. This fact will keep the correction from the 40% category… more likely in the 20-30% range.

PS. The GDP of Canada is solid.

#171 BPOE on 03.13.11 at 12:10 am

This concept is completely lost on The American. Like Shiller clueless in Seattle. Offshore investors fleeing to Seattle yet down 30% LOL. Offshore investors want World Classs consistently voted best place in the World not lving in worst traffic in the world. Get REAL
Brian1 on 03.12.11 at 11:02 pm
Concerning Vancover: I have no doubt that rich Chinese are buying the properties in Vancouver for the sole purpose of escaping from China when the time comes. It is better to sacrifice 1 million than to lose all 30 million. They do not trust their own country, after all, you don’t see Canadians fleeing Canada to buy up American properties do you?
.

#172 Timing is Everything on 03.13.11 at 12:17 am

#100 JT – said “Some of my friends got lucky, very lucky. But the majority of them can’t afford to take in a movie or go to lunch (and its been this way for years) because they have mortgage, the taxes, the assessments, etc. And they are boring people indeed.”

“But what I really resent is being made to feel badly because I’m a renter.”
——————————————
You can ‘resent’ all you like, but really you make yourself feel bad. If your ‘friends’ make you fell bad and are boring, toss ’em.

#173 Herb on 03.13.11 at 12:18 am

#140 Pflex,

there is a good reason for 1940’s uptick: there was a major war on, and lots of people got married and started families during and after (guess where “boomers” came from). There was a shortage of housing since construction resources had been used for military purposes for five years, so demand reigned supreme until supply caught up.

The reason for the climb in the 2000’s is not as clear. Our RE and economics hounds should take that on.

#174 The American on 03.13.11 at 12:24 am

Vancouver will have the largest downward correction in ALL of North American in the last decade. PERIOD. Mark these words. You may not know me now, but you will.

#175 randman on 03.13.11 at 12:24 am

“We cannot continue to allow outsiders to buy up land at this breakneck pace. It’s un-healthy and most of the buyers are gamblers and have no interest in Canada and will never be good citizens. These kind of buyers are to be shunned and discouraged, Our government needs to grow a set of cojones and start to legislate these bastards out.”

Morry…..

It’s not foreigners that are creating the problem

It’s the lax rules, easy money low interest rates
and the dissolving value of money that you need to worry about

#176 Tim on 03.13.11 at 12:34 am

Re#159
How many Vancouverites do you see running down to Seattle to buy property that has dropped over 35% in the last few years? I don’t know of a single one. I spoke with a Eurpoean who lived in Seattle a year before moving to Vancouver. When asked about the biggest difference, other than the State not looking after its people as much as we do in Canada, he said: I feel safe walking around in Vancouver at night…

#177 haha on 03.13.11 at 12:35 am

holy mackerel…. what does BPOE stand for ?
i’d have to agree with the american about your lack of evidence to back up your empty comments.
start posting some numbers to back up your banter or assume the role of ‘flaming dickhead’ in this blog…

#178 BPOE on 03.13.11 at 12:35 am

To The American. Please read the following link and just give it a rest. I know as an American you believe in justification of Iraq and everything you say and think because your never wrong. But for once sit down take a deep breathe and read the link from the Economist. I’m sorry you lost not even close. In fact it appears Seattle is so far down the list a google search doesn’t even acknowledge it’s existence on this ranking (try the search for yourself).You sound like a real estate agent hoping for offshore investors to dump Vancouver and head to Seattle currently in a freefall
This is a Canadian site about Canadian Real Estate and the pros and cons of owning and renting amongst other Canadian concerns. I’m sure there are plenty of US site to discuss America’s various ills. Have a good evening Shiller and best of luck to you convincing offshore money to invest in your condos for sale
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/02/liveability_ranking
Vancouver number 1

#179 45north on 03.13.11 at 12:42 am

John M: For example…2 con men work together

for example the 2 con men are Chinese with no particular tie to this country so when the Vancouver market tanks they get on a plane.

CMHC bounty hunter in Hong Kong: (in English) “excuse me I’m looking for a Mr Lee”

#180 Ronaldo on 03.13.11 at 12:53 am

#32 Gooderfool – “Does anyone have any ideas on how to short Vancouver residential real estate?”

If you already own a house in Vancouver or better yet in Richmond, sell now while there are still greater fools around to buy, preferably a flipper from China.

You rent the house back (one year lease) with an option to purchase within that period. Once this bubble starts to unravel by the end of summer or earlier, he will be begging you to buy it back as the price starts to tumble.

Play hardball, tell him you prefer to rent right now as prices are going to drop a lot further. Before the year is up, the bank will have taken the house back and they will be begging you to buy it from them.

You buy it back for half what you sold it for, or less.

#181 AG Sage on 03.13.11 at 1:00 am

>#171 BPOE on 03.13.11 at 12:10 am
>you don’t see Canadians fleeing Canada to buy up American properties do you?

Do you mean flee as in politics or flee as in the weather?

Come down here to the Inland Empire. Or Arizona. There are a LOT of Canadians down here, wintering in their own homes. So much so that businesses fly both flags.

#182 Eric on 03.13.11 at 1:11 am

john m.

The thing is, even if buyers in Canada are in over their heads they cannot just walk away and let CMHC and the Canadian taxpayers pick up the tab. Unlike in the US the mortgage is still due and payable and the lender will come after those buyers for the money.

#183 BrianT on 03.13.11 at 1:14 am

#155John-Yes of course that is happening but no one knows for sure to what extent-when money is that easy to steal it is going to be stolen. This is the problem with guv guarantees and the too big to fail stuff-even loan officers who are aware couldn’t care less.

#184 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.13.11 at 1:27 am


Good Question Why the heck is Canada in debt? 0:52 sec. clip.

1:56 clip Spock (Leonard Nimoy) said 34 years ago that the Mayans told of their age ending Dec. 24, 2011. Note the date — not 2012, 2011.

Let’s boogie! California waking up.

Link in, but reading the few short lines first is better. Possible reason for all the FEMA camps being set up, and for the WH to gain control over unused land masses down the west coast. FEMA in Seattle. 9:08 clip Could be another reason for FEMA — Americans protesting, getting mad as hell because they are losing everything.

3:25 clip on economy, Oil and Saudis benefit from Japan’s ‘quake, and BP and Russia agree to start drilling in the Arctic. PDF file BP GoM warning. Not only Japan. Depopulation in full swing?

Economists Guess what? and Oil and Gas higher? Well, that’s jes’ peachy! Comparisons between the haves and have-nots.

Tsunamis and Atlantis Some scientists and researchers believe they have found it.

Chaos — “The planets very much affect the earth, indirectly, by having an effect on the Sun. Some planets are very large. If the Sun was a basketball the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn would be the size of grapefruits, and the Earth would be, on that scale, the size of a peppercorn.” SAF next. Supermoon “And weather bloggers noted there was a supermoon just before the last monster tsunami in Asia on Boxing Day 2004.” Actually, there is some kind of weird sun which ventures into our solar system every 3600 years or so, and it is here now. Supermoon Two — The opposite side of the equation.

Swarms of fish with pix, off Acapulco. Cartel (drug) members?

Tent Cities Brief description of what it’s like.

Links in The rose-colored skies over Japan. Or Ben Bernanke leaving the Oval Orifice!

BoA Monday comes proof.

#185 MarcFromOttawa on 03.13.11 at 1:34 am

#159 The America
“Next up, Vancouver is ALREADY going down, and you know it. Would you like me to provide evidence for that as well? If so, just write one more post to taunt and test me. I DARE YOU. >:-) Actually, I’m BEGGING for you to do it.”

Vancouver is at all time highs:
http://www.chpc.biz/Plunge-O-Meter.htm

#186 Rick in Japan on 03.13.11 at 1:50 am

I see the bimbo troll (AKA-BPOE) is back. . .

To the American-I suggest letting the trolls go and get some egg rolls themselves and not feeding them.

#187 Coho on 03.13.11 at 1:56 am

Utopia, with all due respect, you are way off the mark in regards to NATO and the “world community” wearing the “white hats” in wanting to get involved to help free the people from Libya. People should be suspicious of true motives when the imperialist “do gooders” want in on the action.

The snake in the grass UK, using tools such as NATO, the USA doesn’t give a hoot about the plight of people or freedom. We know its penchant for imperialism. In fact the same factions have been vying for world conquest for centuries now. Same groups, but different appearance to suit the times.

And the people…what choice do they have? Either it is one of their own like Gadaffi, who at least by appearance is defiant against the West, whose tyranny they must bear, or it is puppet dictator, monarchies, or foreign occupiers taking advantage of the situation for strategic purposes.

Things aren’t so simple or always what they appear to be. There are geopolitical/economic agendas, the truth of which is kept hidden from the public. We have very superficial knowledge (including politicians and other people in positions of power) on the affairs of this world, which makes us scratch our heads at the actions of governments.

You can bet that the groups lobbying for the no-fly zone over Libya and to “help” the Libyan opposition are on one side, while China, Russia and others are on the other side. They are not supporting the no-fly zone for good reason. It is not about gaining “credibility” for themselves, nor is it that they care more or less for the people. It is about strategic manoeuvring.

The US so far has been reluctant to be drawn in. I guess we’ll have to see which faction within the USA gets its way — those true patriots who are for what is truly better for America, versus those working for the UK’s interests by promoting involvement in other country’s affairs. Judging by America’s behaviour over the last century, we have a good idea of who and what is getting its way.

#188 Just sayin' on 03.13.11 at 3:19 am

Hey there The American….did you skip your meds?

I have enjoyed your posts in the past but you’re spewing like Charlie Sheen, bro.

Or Devil’s Advocate, wherever he is.

Tone down the “fists of fire” rhetoric pal, and you’ll find more people will listen.

#189 LS on 03.13.11 at 3:30 am

Wow look at what is going on in Japan, it’s truly sobering.

The earthquake was named Tohoku-Kanto Huge Earthquake ( 東北・関東巨大地震) by the government. That means it goes from northern Honshu (Tohoku) through Tokyo/Yokohama (Kanto Plain.)

It means almost half of Japan was affected. Such an unprecedented huge earthquake.

It’s going to take a long time to recover. These pictures are sobering.

http://picasaweb.google.com/118079222830783600944/Japan#5583300886323486834

The nuclear situation is terrifying and I really hope that help is coming to Japan for that. Japanese officials always downplay serious problems. If Japanese officials say a “little” radiation escaped, you can rest assured it’s far worse than that.

#190 Mean Gene on 03.13.11 at 3:42 am

I wonder if there is any demand for radioactive land on the west coast???

#191 The Original Dave on 03.13.11 at 3:36 am

Hmmmm…looking at the chart, it appears that during the 1940s, home prices rapidly rose from about 70 to 110 (57% rise) and didn’t have any major correction after that.

Then starting in 2000, it rose from about 110 to about 180 where we are today. That’s a 63% rise. Could it not just top out at this level for a few decades instead of correcting?
——————————————————

what exactly was happening in the 1940’s? Oh yeah, a world war. You’re aware that people were fleeing Europe at the time right? You have to also consider that war time economies can be robust. North America was a safe-haven. I’d imagine Australia saw an increase in price during that time as well.

We need statistics on what incomes were like in the 1940’s. Maybe incomes were low and a 57% increase in house prices were justifiable.

I don’t think people were paying 5-8 times their household income to buy those houses. I don’t think there was any type of crazy financing going on either (0 down, 5% down, 30 yr amort, 40 yr amort). This tells me that people had CASH to put down – a significant amount in comparison to home prices at the time. This also tells me that incomes versus home prices were at an affordable ratio, afterall, people were able to save cash to likely put 25% down.

The only way, the current real estate market takes a small dip and starts a new bull market in Canada is if: amortization periods are raised above 40 years. Something like an amortization of 50 years would create a new screaming bull market for real estate in Canada. The reverse is happening though. Amortization periods are declining. Interest rates hit the basement a couple of years ago. What people don’t realize is that low rates have already been priced into houses. Higher house prices are a reflection of the low rates that were introduced.

There is absolutely no argument for a small pull back in real estate in Canada. It will be a big pull back. Price rises are only due to delusion. This tends to happen at the end of a bull market turned bubble. Yeah, people have heard this over and over again. No it can’t be timed. There’s no way to compute and provide time lines for the irrationality of human emotion. It does come to an end and when it ends, the mathematical valuations that mattered before the inflated bubble will matter again. 3 to 3.5 times household income.

#192 Rog on 03.13.11 at 4:08 am

re :#32 GooderFool on 03.11.11 at 11:50 pm

Does anyone have any ideas on how to short Vancouver residential real estate?

Sure you just need to be an investment banker. Create a bond filled with billions of high risk 5% down 35 year mortgages. Get your buddies to give it a AAA rating. Then insure it for failure and short it in the market.

Or you could just ask Goldman Sachs.

#193 tmg on 03.13.11 at 4:26 am

#124 john

They would rent for over $3500 and people would be lining up to rent. There is very little out ther. A newer place is $4500-$5000ish for Vancouver westside.

#194 Not Wondering Anymore on 03.13.11 at 4:58 am

#75 Utopia

Re: You promoting support for a No Fly Zone in Libya requires a rebuttal.

This is absolutely not an option.To be anything other than symbolic, establishing a “no fly zone” requires destroying a country’s on the ground defense system. This would be an act of war, and many civilians would be killed. Imposing an external military “solution” to a political problem is never a solution.

The more viable action is in the Libyan people/opposition, following Egypt’s lead, to determine what the Libyan armed forces need in order to ally with them against Gaddafi.

It is the role of other countries and international bodies to strictly support that,and only that.

Civil wars that MAY occur, whether it be in Ireland,Afghanistan, Iraq, the US ,Canada,or anywhere, cannot be averted by the additional engagement of external armed forces which,by definition, only serve to escalate and prolong any conflict. We continually witness that becoming what you advocate against in your enemy is both illogical,contradictory and ultimately ineffective.

This is a real estate blog, not a platform for blanket statements and political propaganda that you presume will go unchallenged in your attempt to promote wider support for another agenda altogether.

Please refrain.

#195 John on 03.13.11 at 5:16 am

While the FED print billions, $2 million seems like chunk change.

But these are regular Joe Blows..they have no recourse and should know better.

Swim or die..looks like die.

#196 betamax on 03.13.11 at 6:22 am

#140 phlex: “during the 1940s, home prices rapidly rose from about 70 to 110 (57% rise) and didn’t have any major correction after that.”

Post-WWII baby boom.

“Then starting in 2000, it rose from about 110 to about 180 where we are today. That’s a 63% rise. ”

Credit bubble.

#197 Brian1 on 03.13.11 at 7:26 am

Concerning job increase in America: I think that there have been many hirings by private sector but only through collusion in order to encourage investors to stay in the markets. The work is being spread around and we won’t know for sure until productivity numbers become available.

#198 allister on 03.13.11 at 9:26 am

#135 EVA

There are 77,000 millionares in Singapore.

http://www.asiaone.com/Business/News/My%2BMoney/Story/A1Story20080626-72979.htm

They all want to buy in mouldy Van? They don’t want to buy in some nice sunny place? Why not in a cheaper place like California?

#199 john m on 03.13.11 at 9:27 am

#183 Eric on 03.13.11 at 1:11 am

john m.

The thing is, even if buyers in Canada are in over their heads they cannot just walk away and let CMHC and the Canadian taxpayers pick up the tab. Unlike in the US the mortgage is still due and payable and the lender will come after those buyers for the money…………………………<<<<< sure they will if they can find them and if they do so what?There is little or no chance of them being prosecuted and they have quite possibly made millions on just the few houses shown here…how many more are there?…… with a few million made and stashed how is the bank going to get their money back?…i really doubt if they care about their credit rating………..and last but not least to all intents and purposes they obtained the money legally thanks to "H" and companies relaxed lending rules guaranteed by our tax dollars.

#200 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.13.11 at 9:49 am

@ #194 tmg:

They would rent for over $3500 and people would be lining up to rent. There is very little out ther. A newer place is $4500-$5000ish for Vancouver westside.

So, a $2,000,000 house rents for $3500… that’s 47.6 years of rent! (and, the “normal” ratio is about 20 I believe).

Or, put differently: a 5% down / 25-year amortization would give you a $1.9M mortgage that costs almost $10,000 per month to service @ 4%.

Or, to put this in perspective:

– $2M in a GIC @ 3.5% = $70,000/year (far more than the $42,000 in rent that the property generates)

– $2M in Bank of Montreal Preferred Shares (BMO.PR.N on TSX) yielding 5.9% = $118,000/year (nearly triple)

but hey – people aren’t buying these dumps as rental/investment properties anyway… or the bubble would have popped a LONG time ago.

I wonder what you could rent in Vancouver for $118,000 year ($9800/month)? Oh ya – something like these places:

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/nvn/apa/2257835634.html

http://vancouver.kijiji.ca/c-housing-house-rental-One-of-a-Kind-Burnaby-Mansion-W0QQAdIdZ264904355

#201 Mike Rotch on 03.13.11 at 9:51 am

@194 TMG:

Really?? $3500 to $5000

$5K per month = $60K per year = a big fat 3% annual return on $2M………..before you pay for property taxes or maintenance!

I dunno, I thought anyone who had $2M would know how to get more than 3%.

If you’re mortgaging, I think your 5/35 payments on $1.9M are something like $6,800 per month, so renting it out in this scenario this makes even less sense than buying it with cash or putting down a big downpayment.

#202 Steven Rowlandson on 03.13.11 at 9:55 am

Hello Garth.
Thank you for reminding me how insane some of my fellow canadians really are. Apart from legally knocking two zeros off the price how can this insanity be cured for the good of canadians?

Steven

#203 allister on 03.13.11 at 10:10 am

#173 Herb and #140 Pfex.

During the war, there was full employment in North America, but, the consumer was subjected to rations. The war was the true depression, because it didn’t matter how much money you had, you only got 3 gallons of gas a week and 1 pound of butter.

So all the money from full employment went into savings, like war bonds, and sat there.

When the boys came home and rations ended, there was a huge liquidity unleashed and inflation raged in the mid 40’s to mid 50s.

At the same time the Marshall plan was rebuilding Europe and feeding Europe. There was price gouging.

Liquidity feeds inflation.

#204 allister on 03.13.11 at 10:20 am

I also know a 93 yr old gentleman who is still vey bright and active (he still drives his own car). He was a big builder in our city in the 1950’s and still keeps in touch with the curren t roster of builders.

His favourite saying is that in the fifties he sold houses to people who had 50-100% cash. Now nobody buys with cash.

#205 Herb on 03.13.11 at 10:20 am

#195 Not Wondering Anymore, Utopia et al.

A no-fly zone neither requires nor implies the preliminary destruction of the target air force on the ground. That is a spin put on reality by a military seeking a mission or domestic profile, or a government pursuing an agenda.

A no-fly zone would be established by absolute air superiority, or dominance. Any aircraft flying in that zone would be forced down or destroyed. Any air defence that goes into action would be destroyed. The technology to operate safely in a hostile air environment exists and has been proved in action. It is not only the USAF that has it.

The wisdom and legality of establishing no-fly zones are other matters, as is the “duty to protect”. They will be decided by prevailing national interest(s), not international law or ethics.

#206 Virgil on 03.13.11 at 11:10 am

#99 observer

The market did collapse at the end of 2008 and begging of 2009, in case your memory is playing a trick on you….

Robert Shiller could not predict the 120 billion dollar bailout for our “conservative” banks and the 30 billion dollar bailout for the automotive industry. This was a massive government intervention in the housing market.

Also: Bank of Canada dropped the interest rates close to 0 to “support” the housing market.

Robert Shiller got it right in terms of market fundamentals in 2008. He did not predict the massive government intervention in the housing market.

Robert Shiller got it right every time when predicted market fundamentals. Do you think the government will intervene again in 2011? Possibly, but this doesn’t mean Robert Shiller is not credible.

It is true people have short memory, but this is a whole different issue…

#207 Min in Mission on 03.13.11 at 11:12 am

WOW!! Those examples @ around $2 million, I would have let them have mine for $1.75 million. They could have saved money and had a bigger piece of land to build on!!

#208 Kaganovich on 03.13.11 at 11:19 am

Herb and Beta-max

exactly.

Coho

I think along the same lines…here is a recent piece by Castro:

http://www.counterpunch.org/castro03112011.html

Historical context leads lends itself to conclusions much different than the stuff Utopia seems to be endorsing.

#209 Apsalar on 03.13.11 at 11:30 am

You know, I’m wondering what the longer-term ramifications of the inevitable crash will be; if financially responsible folks are going to be forced to help bail out the irresponsible down the road. Ontario taxpayers helped to bail out Nortel pensioners, auto unions. CMHC took on toxic debt from the banks, so Canadian taxpayers are also funding that. It scares me to think that I might be penalized at some point for being fiscally careful. Anyone else feel the same out there?

#210 Herb on 03.13.11 at 11:41 am

Speaking of Libya …

http://www.ericmargolis.com/political_commentaries/hes-back–gadaffi-redux-may-cause-lots-of-red-fa.aspx

Those of the Right persuasion will write off Margolis as a lefty, but he passes on elements of reality sadly lacking in more conventional and congenial commenters.

Every time I watch the news I wonder why all we see is groups of posturing Libyans blasting away into the air or at nothing much in general. Now I know: the rebels are “… little more than an armed mob making warlike gestures for TV cameras.”

Oh, and “Real, seasoned war correspondents seem to have vanished from the media, replaced by amateurs who can’t tell a tank from an armored personnel carrier.”

#211 dj on 03.13.11 at 11:46 am

Just got back from Perth W.A….the drop has started- $2 million homes can now be had for $1.4 million! The walk a ways have not started yet…but lots of owners under water. You can pick up a crack house for $280k.

#212 Kaganovich on 03.13.11 at 11:46 am

Here is a first hand account of the post war building boom by a california framer:

http://www.finehomebuilding.com/PDF/Free/021177096.pdf

I figured original dave and others might enjoy it, maybe Dan in Victoria as well if he hasn’t already read it.

#213 Moneta on 03.13.11 at 12:16 pm

It scares me to think that I might be penalized at some point for being fiscally careful. Anyone else feel the same out there?
—–
If you have bank stocks in your portfolio, it’s not as if you have not benefitted from people’s profligacies.

#214 zimmerp on 03.13.11 at 12:19 pm

The general public when it comes to money = Stupidity

And yes it is always different this time.

It is different because each time more people get burned badly.

““The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits.” – Vancouver

#215 Ex-Cowtown on 03.13.11 at 12:29 pm

BPOE just kills me. Gotta love this guy. His next gig will be screaming

“GET OUT!!! NOW!!! THE MARKET IS CRASHING!!! IT’S NEVER BEEN A BETTER TIME TO SELL!!!

Here’s my card…. Can I list it for you? Yes you are looking at a 25% haircut, but if

YOU DON’T GET OUT NOW YOU WILL BE STUCK WITH THAT HOUSE FOREVER!!!!

It really is all about marketing….

#216 jess on 03.13.11 at 12:42 pm

I thought it was the FBI who was on first and not the economist/s …
=
targets and probes oh my! it’s all so virtolic …

…was the former head of the financial institution ,Fannie Mae, honest?
(Bloomberg Mar 12)

===========
In 2008, Freddie Mac was informed that the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Virginia was investigating “accounting, disclosure, and corporate governance matters,” according to a regulatory filing. The SEC informed the company that it was under investigation for possible securities violations, and employees were interviewed.

MERS Exposed II: General Counsel Tells Whoppers in Testimony …23 Jan 2011 … MERS Exposed II: General Counsel Tells Whoppers in Testimony Before Virginia House. It has become so common for members of the …
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/…/mers-exposed-ii-general-counsel-tells-whoppers-in-testimony-before-virginia-house.html

#217 Junius on 03.13.11 at 12:42 pm

#174 The American,

I agree 100%. Unfortunately Vancouver will be the Canadian Miami, Phoenix or Vegas – whichever we can now see as the worst.

Shiller is correct. Soon enough the “fun” will return to fundamentals in Vancouver. Our sad reality.

Thanks also for kicking the relentless crap out of BPOE. We all know that he is here with an agenda and has no interest in real dialogue. If anything he is at least consistent.

#218 Herb on 03.13.11 at 12:44 pm

#204 Allister,

there is an illuminating book about the Canadian home front in WWII published in the “Studies in Canadian Military History” series: Jeffrey A Keshen, Saints, Sinners, and Soldiers, UBC Press 2004.

Chapter 3, “The Wartime Prices and Trade Board and the Accommodation Crisis” has the details on housing, including the intents and effects of government steering through the National Housing Acts of 1935, 1938, 1944, and 1947.

#219 The American on 03.13.11 at 12:46 pm

At #178: B.S.O.E. Did you read the own link you posted for everyone to read? Perhaps you should go back and RE-read that link. The Economist has an update, and it reads as follows:

“UPDATE 23rd February: It turns out Vancouver is only the 29th-best place to live in CANADA. Those standards must be pretty high.”

Regardless, that link you provided is NOT statistical data that I/we’ve requested from you.

Next, B.S.O.E, you said, “This is a Canadian site about Canadian Real Estate and the pros and cons of owning and renting amongst other Canadian concerns. I’m sure there are plenty of US site to discuss America’s various ills.”

Must I point out that YOU’RE the person who keeps opening the dialogue and pulling American cities like Seattle into the mix. You may need to review this string and see who said it first. You brought up an American city first in your post at #139. You really are delusional.

Regardless, I will now deliver my promise. Here’s a proverbial bitch slap for starters… B.S.O.E., if things are trucking along so swimmingly in Vancouver, please explain to the readers why the Fairmont Pacific Rim quietly reduced prices on all remaining inventory by 40%? Explain why the Ritz Carlton residences backed out of the Vancouver Market a couple of years ago. Explain why you’re still trying to sell poorly-constructed units at the Georgian Hotel, after FOUR YEARS of being on the market. Explain why Jameson House is taking so long and why they quit construction efforts in the middle of it. Explain why many Vancouverites aren’t being approved now to build on the land they purchased to tear down homes. Explain why the media must continually pump the real estate market even MORE SO NOW, presenting and intimating false news. Also, why is that horrible development, Village on False Creek, STILL is not doing well after having been in receivership and significantly reduced prices? Also, please explain why all over areas, such as Kits, I see NOTHING BUT VERY QUIET PRICE REDUCTIONS. You assume too much that I don’t understand Vancouver. You’ve also assumed that I haven’t lived in Vancouver before. You assume I never go to Vancouver, however I am there quite often. You’ve also assumed that I am Schiller, and I am not (thanks for the flattering comment, though).

#220 S.B. on 03.13.11 at 12:50 pm

The elephant has spoken:

(Reuters) – The European Central Bank may hike interest rates next month, far earlier than markets expected, though any rise would not signal a series of increases, President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Thursday.

The strong indication that a rise will come in April shocked markets expecting a raise late this year and put the ECB in pole position to hike well before the U.S. Federal Reserve and even the Bank of England, which analysts had expected to move first.

#221 The American on 03.13.11 at 12:53 pm

AT #187: Rick in Japan
At #189: Just Sayin’

You’re both right. I need to bring it in and check myself. I appreciate the feedback. I don’t appreciate mistruths from commenters like B.S.O.E., but he/she isn’t worth the time, energy, or effort. Thank you both.

#222 wetcoaster on 03.13.11 at 1:10 pm

“Sure you just need to be an investment banker. Create a bond filled with billions of high risk 5% down 35 year mortgages. Get your buddies to give it a AAA rating. Then insure it for failure and short it in the market.

Or you could just ask Goldman Sachs.”

I’m sure Goldman is working ovetime to do the very same thing to Canadian CMHC subprimes. There is always a new way to package up a pile of crap and call it a rose.

#223 Brad in Van on 03.13.11 at 1:17 pm

HAHA! I think BPOE just got annihilated by The American. BPOE my wife and I know a lot of Canadians rushing to buy property in the U.S. Yes, some are in Florida, Arizona, and even in Washington. We know a Chinese couple that moved four months ago from North Vancouver to buy and live in the Madison Park neighbourhood in Seattle. We have friends that live down there and we have noticed more Asian people around, especially in the last year.

#224 Brad in Van on 03.13.11 at 1:19 pm

Actually when we think about it, North Vancouver is very nice if not the nicest are in Vancouver and even Canada. However we’ve taken away that Seattle has much nicer neighbourhoods including Washington Park, Madison Park, Leschi, Broadmoore (sp), Magnolia and Medina. Makes me wonder why we don’t have more areas like that.

#225 Cellar Dwellar on 03.13.11 at 1:33 pm

@ #30 Dissin

The Australian media might be warning about the possibility of a “correction”.
But the Lickspittles here that actually foist this off as “news” need the advertising revenue…… their readers are leaving them in droves, their viewers are leaving them in droves, their listeners are leaving them in droves.
Why? Because with the internet you can find infinite sources of reliable data without the ridiculous “puff stories”.
The main stream media deserves whats coming…..They’ve EARNED it !

#226 S.B. on 03.13.11 at 1:33 pm

All the chatter about the Japan Nuke plant scare is all part of the master plan to take away our energy and point us towards “green” energy that does not really work.
Rolling blackouts, like in 2nd and 3rd World countries are already here in some parts of the USA. Our power bills are set to rise by 20-50%. It will be like back in the Communist bloc: only the rich use power, the serfs will scrap by.

They are economically bombing us back to the stoneage.

Don’t believe it? What about Earth Hour, a gobal brainwashing event that accomplishes exactly nothing.

Line up for your car’s yearly emissions test, meanwhile the US military is the largest single user of oil daily. Just think of all those ships, tanks, Humvees, planes spewing raw exhaust into the environment daily.

No matter, teach your kids to snitch on neighbours who do not sort their recycling properly! If you see something, say something!

Turn your history books upside down for the real truth. We lost WW2. All the key people escaped prosecution and were welcomed by the West. Read it here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_paperclip

The 4th Reich has now swept over Europe, with total economic and political control. What tanks failed to achieve a generation ago, law and bankers succeed today. Look how they are bankrupting each country, one by one. There’s the proof, do not take my word for it.

Soverienty is gone. Look at the horrible propagandistic leaders who run USA, Canada, Australia, EU, UK. Total lies they spew daily. White is Black. Evil is Good.
The staggering death toll in the middle east, yet Obama was given the peace prize?! See how they mock us openly. They no longer hide it.

Google search: Sarkozy and Big Sister
(This his plan to mark everyone in a computer. The modern day camp tattoo)

The next 5 years will be hell on earth: bankrupt countires, food shortages, weather warfare (google that one), non-stop war making, total media control. All designed chaos, all predicted by the computer models.

We just wrote 50 billion in blank checks to Harper and the Globalists (our money!): 35b for jets, 1.2b for G20, and 9b for prisons.
We are on our way to bankruptcy.

#227 Adventures in Sea-Tac with Moneta on 03.13.11 at 1:38 pm

224 The American – yes its tough not to lose your “blog temper” here sometimes. Often best to scroll past those comments that infuriate. Most of us just gloss over them
or ignore them completely.

I found this list of cities and their GDP:

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=454910

I checked a couple of cities on other sources and they were reasonably close. Now I know you’ve highlighted
the large GDP of Seattle as compared to Vancouver. But I
also see cities such as Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, Miami
and Detroit having larger GDPs than Seattle, yet RE in Miami and Detroit has crashed, and the other 3 cities
have more affordable RE than Seattle, arguably better
weather and probably busier airports too. So I cant see any solid connection between GDP and RE.

I also see that Vancouver has higher GDP than Berlin,
Munich, Hamburg, Stockholm, Amsterdam and Athens.
Surprising.

#228 Cellar Dwellar on 03.13.11 at 2:07 pm

@ #148 Alex
I too, filed a complaint with the CRTC about Globals “news” story……:)

#229 Dan in Victoria on 03.13.11 at 2:17 pm

Kaganovich @ 213

Thanks for that link i’ve never read that before.
Boy did that ever bring back a flood of memories, The old worm drive skil saw, the unprotected blade on the sioux saw….
Those were the tools my grandfather had.
Those were the ones I got to learn with helping my grandfather frame with.

I like how the fellow in the article started at .87 cents an hour, I got a buck an hour when I started so.. 40 bucks a week. LOL.
I’m just finishing a major reno on the house and its just been a steady stream of cussing since I started, NO, THE OLD HOUSES WERE NOT BETTER.
The big boss told me this morning to let it go just finish it up, quit trying to make it perfect.
I’m sitting having a tea on the deck and looking up and down the street thinking about the houses on the street that my grandfather and his brothers built, they’re long gone but the houses are still standing.
Kinda cool in a way.

PS. Irene, if you read this I fixed it yesterday so the birds can’t get in, no disasters this spring.

#230 Abitibidoug on 03.13.11 at 2:18 pm

I saw an article in the March 12 G&M describing how Chinese buyers were driving up the price of houses in and around Vancouver and how you had better get used to it, suggesting it’s a long term trend. Wait a minute, isn’t that what many “experts” said of the Toronto area real estate boom in the late 1980’s, driven by buyers from Hong Kong?

#231 in YYC on 03.13.11 at 2:20 pm

As per your request in your last post. Any and all investment advice that you can provide given these increasingly volatile times would be appreciated – please be fairly specific. I think your regular readers understand the housing situation and it would be nice if you would increase your scope a bit to the larger world of helping people protect all of their net worth. I have read your books and regularly visit your blog but I still need regular reassurance about where it makes sense to put my money – I have new retirement savings to put to work every month and I am always unsure of what to do.

#232 Cellar Dwellar on 03.13.11 at 2:39 pm

@ #222 The American
Excellent rebuttal.
I was in downtown van yesterday walking around, Business district then walked over to Yaletown.
LOTS of retail space for lease ! Every street seemd to have vacant shops with For Lease on the windows.
Reminded me of Montreal in 1996 just before the referendum for seperation….
A real estate price correction here is LONG overdue just like the Major earthquake ! Richmond will revert back to the Bog it was

#233 Makes Cents on 03.13.11 at 2:52 pm

Garth, I am interested to know your thoughts on the proposed Pooled Registered Pension Plan if you have any?

#234 tran, Calgary on 03.13.11 at 3:07 pm

Japanese insurance and reinsurance companies to dump Eurozone bonds.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-japanese-earthquake-be-straw-breaks-europes-back

#235 ExExpat on 03.13.11 at 3:29 pm

It would seem Chinese money is at least partly, maybe entirely, I don’t know, propping up the Vancouver housing market. I would like to know if there are Chinese readers (versus Canadians of Chinese ancestry) on this board who could help enlighten me, why Vancouver, and why at these prices?

Thanks.

#236 David on 03.13.11 at 3:42 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/gary_mason/chinese-investors-once-again-pouring-money-into-canadian-real-estate/article1939457/

#237 Live Within Your Means on 03.13.11 at 4:35 pm

OT re RE. I was watching Suze Orman on PBS the other night. Some of the questioners were in REALLY bad debt. One guy went back to get his MA and ended up making $20K. Did not say in which field. He has at least $100K in student loans and $18K in credit card debt. From what I recalled, Suze said that in the US the lenders of student loans can garnish wages, even pensions, etc. Student loans do not ‘qualify’ for bankruptcy protection.

Next eve. while clicking (unable to sleep) Suze was on again. Woman had various degrees and wanted to go for another one, thinking she’d have a better chance to be hired in Cal (where her partner wanted to move) Her extra degree would put her around $240K in debt. You can imagine what advice Suze gave her. There were other callers. I’d like to believe they were rigged, but I doubt it.

I don’t always agree how Suze presents herself, but I agree with the majority of what she says.

#238 Utopia on 03.13.11 at 4:57 pm

Good to see that my comments stirred up so much emotion. Some of the comments don’t make sense to me though so I am not going to address the remarks individually.

I think we can all agree that Gadaffi is a lone wolf and a very dangerous one at that too. He has been identified as the one behind the financing of a large number of terrorist acts including the killing of Israeli Olympic athletes and bombing a passenger jet (amongst many other acts).

In short, he has broken the covenant amongst the global community of nations and has placed himself in their crosshairs.

He can not and will not be permitted to retain the seat of government in his country and all legitimate means will now be used to unseat him.

And why should it be otherwise? This individual has shown he is willing to take his revenge outside his own borders and even to arrange the killings of his countrymen, political opponents and critics abroad.

The No-Fly zone now agreed to by the Arab League is intended to foster the efforts of the Libyans themselves to take back their own country. It is not designed as a blunt tool leading to Western interference or a takeover but rather as a support for an existing and legitimate fighting force on the ground.

By taking these steps now, the world community will avoid having to undertake a land war later. Gadaffi will be gone one way or another but it is preferable to all that his own people should settle the old scores, try him and imprison him themselves.

The West will play only a minor role that essentially amounts to having a technological advantage in airpower. Arab nations, possibly including Egypt and Saudi Arabia might now also be asked to make commitments to the effort.

We should not ever regret enabling the Libyan opposition to achieve their goal of seeking independance and establishing democratic rule in place or tyranny.

We would be remiss to suspend our own actions until it is too late though and I believe we would later regret having not provided the requested air support in a timely manner if Gadaffi succeeds in retaking his country.

He is just too dangerous to be ignored.

#239 allister on 03.13.11 at 5:00 pm

#221 Herb

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Inflation-CPI.aspx?Symbol=CAD

You can also see inflation highs of 16% in 1948 and 11% in 1951.

#240 David B on 03.13.11 at 5:08 pm

Nothing changes, nothing changes …. and then one day there is a Tsunami …. and people will say why were we not told.

Vancouver is overdo for two disasters …. and they are ill prepared for both.

#241 T.O. Bubble Boy on 03.13.11 at 5:23 pm

If you want to generate $3500/month in rental income, there are easier ways to do it.

Here’s a $850,000 (still over-priced) place in Toronto that generates $4000/month:

http://www.realtor.ca/PropertyDetails.aspx?PropertyID=10447203&PidKey=-618501256

And, you have $1.15M left to spare!

#242 BrianT on 03.13.11 at 5:25 pm

Love story: KNAVE nude model hooks old richest man on earth-they divorce and she gets 1 million a yr plus an estate mansion with 200 acres valued at 100 million. She screws up-the estate goes to auction-they can’t even find one member of the global elite who will pay the minimum bid of 15.3 million so BAC takes it back. An 84.7% reduction wasn’t enough http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/112329/rise-fall-of-patricia-kluge?mod=family-love_money

#243 Live Within Your Means on 03.13.11 at 5:44 pm

PS to my previous post re Student Loans. I meant to post the following link. http://student-loan-bankruptcy.ca/

Comments?

#244 Live Within Your Means on 03.13.11 at 5:56 pm

My husband works in the school system. The ‘recycle IT centre’ hires lots of mentally challenged young adults, some of whom are really bright in various ways. He’s Apparently the other day he was talking to some of them about charges re ATM’s, etc. They, as well as some of his colleagues, have no idea how much they pay. They’ll go to a white ATM to take out $10. and might pay $2.50 in charges. Nuts. No wonder so many are in such debt.

Has anyone watched ted.com. Fascinating site.

#245 john m on 03.13.11 at 6:10 pm

#238 ExExpat on 03.13.11 at 3:29 pm

why Vancouver, and why at these prices?

Thanks……………… Personally i think its an easy money scam…………no lender or not even the average joe off the street could in any way justify what these places are selling for…..but thanks to Mr. “H” and company we the taxpayers will back just about anyone………..pretty damn easy money for little or nothing down…………and its legal…what a bunch of dumb asses we have running this country!

#246 Utopia on 03.13.11 at 6:11 pm

And just a brief note to those pundits who objected to my supporting the role of a No-Fly zone….have you guys neglected to notice that the Arab League itself supports that action?

They want it but you don’t. Hmmm.

If I had prodded China and Russia (in a prior post) to vote in favour of a Security Council resolution bringing unanimous support for such action it springs from an acknowledgement that the United States cannot be expected to be the worlds policeman in every crisis anymore.

The job of policing needs greater participation and cooperation between member states. France you will have noted acted unilaterally to recognize the Libyan Opposition in Bengazzi and that was frankly an incredible and impressive move that I welcomed.

The Security Council meanwhile has passed many votes with unanimity in the past but has a lesser record when it has come to intervening in the affairs of other countries.

That body will gain influence and greater respect when it begins to act more decisively in consultations to end conflicts such as we saw in Rwanda or more recently in Libya.

What is being achieved now is that the old barriers between the politics of East and West are being broken down at the highest levels and it should be obvious that the world will be a safer place if the UN is empowered to act more willfully in engaging rogue states, Including those who are not signatories or members.

China and Russia are a big part of that future.

#247 No propaganda on 03.13.11 at 6:21 pm

Utopia #241 please stop with your isreali propaganda. Americans maybe stupid enough to believe your propaganda but Canadian are not. You propaganda has so many holes I do nto know where to start. We all can see through your lies and propaganda. Go away this is a blog about RE not isreali/US propaganda. Thank-you

#248 john m on 03.13.11 at 6:25 pm

In the late 70’s and early 80’s in Windsor Ontario a few guys pulled a similar type scam ..only difference being they paid off an appraiser to appraise the properties for much more than they were worth and remortgaged them shortly after purchasing them…the market was booming…then the market took a dive…all of a sudden all these properties started coming on the market by CMHC…i am not sure how many but i do know there were over 100 …all with ridiculous mortgages and most were dumps……sound familiar??

#249 Utopia on 03.13.11 at 6:26 pm

#195 Not Wondering Anymore wrote..

“This is a real estate blog, not a platform for blanket statements and political propaganda that you presume will go unchallenged in your attempt to promote wider support for another agenda altogether.

Please refrain”.
———————————————————-

The banner on this site actually reads “Economics, Real Estate, Money and the Road Ahead” if you did not notice.

Notably it does not mention politics (or Gold) however I think it has established itself broadly enough to periodically admit thoughts on issues that do affect us all personally. That might include the price of oil for example and rising fule costs which is spiking due to Middle East unrest.

I may stray outside the lines from time to time but after two years on this site I think I can judge that for myself and you will note that the vast majority of my commentary in fact revolves around real estate.

Check your facts.

#250 Gord In Vancouver on 03.13.11 at 6:41 pm

#243 David B

Vancouver is overdo for two disasters …. and they are ill prepared for both.
__________________________________

Yes, Vancouverites will be begging for a $1.50+ loonie and an NDP victory in the next provincial election once the threat of a housing crash or tsunami is taken seriously.

#251 S.B. on 03.13.11 at 6:52 pm

Hi Garth. Still flying? FYI an article. :(
(This is no accident, slowly they are messing with our DNA, weakening it for whatever is to come).

TSA Scanners: Radiation 10X Higher Than Expected

USA Today
March 13, 2011

The Transportation Security Administration announced Friday that it would retest every full-body X-ray scanner that emits ionizing radiation — 247 machines at 38 airports — after maintenance records on some of the devices showed radiation levels 10 times higher than expected.

The TSA says that the records reflect math mistakes and that all the machines are safe. Indeed, even the highest readings listed on some of the records — the numbers that the TSA says were mistakes — appear to be many times less than what the agency says a person absorbs through one day of natural background radiation.

Even so, the TSA has ordered the new tests out of “an abundance of caution to reassure the public,” spokesman Nicholas Kimball says. The tests will be finished by the end of the month, and the results will be released “as they are completed,” the agency said on its website.

TSA officials have repeatedly assured the public and lawmakers that the machines have passed all inspections. The agency’s review of maintenance reports, launched Dec. 10, came only after USA TODAY and lawmakers called for the release of the records late last year.

Full article here

#252 Alex on 03.13.11 at 6:54 pm

Cellar Dweller: Would love to know the progress/status of your CRTC/CBSC complaint. I think its important that people offended when media news outlets fabricate news for its own benefit take their complaints beyond the bitching stage. Good on you.

#239 David: You notice the overwhelming opinion in the 300-plus reader responses to that G&M article? The truth is getting out there.

I submitted a response myself. Curiously, the G&M deleted it. So now I’m writing to ask why they deleted it. It wasn’t profane, so what could it be?

I’m all about the media pressure, man. :-)

#253 BrianT on 03.13.11 at 7:01 pm

#241Utopia-You already posted an identical long winded post summarizing MSM drivel. The dictator had billions of dollars (stolen from the Libyans) openly invested with these nations you know portray as saving the day. We can easily get anything you type from any MSM outlet (on absolutely any subject you discuss).

#254 jess on 03.13.11 at 7:02 pm

240 Live Within Your Means

What is Sallie Mae ?

#255 Morry on 03.13.11 at 7:03 pm

#175 randman

Morry…..

It’s not foreigners that are creating the problem

I believe that a number of countries have closed both the tax laws and the law about foreign ownership of TOO MANY condos/homes.

I fail to see how allowing a person from another country buy up 100 condos is in any way beneficial to the citizens of the country. Only the developers benefit and in only the short term at best. And when that buyer flips the properties outside the country, how does that benefit the citizens of Canada?

Even the Chinese government limit the number of condos that an individual may buy to 2.

#256 BrianT on 03.13.11 at 7:10 pm

#230Adventure-Ah yes the myth of GDP-the calculation of this number renders it pretty well useless for any comparisons. Look at Detroit as an example-it is a city with basically two groups of residents: welfare recipients and guv employees-that is where the high GDP rating is coming from. I guess that economic model would be sustainable as long as state and federal money keeps coming in, and the few private sector workers paying in decide not to leave. With its big GDP, the place only has 69000 kids in the school system. It only costs something like $12000 per kid to run the worst system in North America (something like 15% graduation rate from memory).

#257 S.B. on 03.13.11 at 7:22 pm

I suspect Utopia is one of those paid army psy-ops forum posters. It’s all mindless pro-war from him/her.

#258 Al on 03.13.11 at 7:36 pm

Lots of Chinese buying in the Greater Toronto Area too.

#259 Utopia on 03.13.11 at 7:56 pm

#250 No propaganda

Why don’t you spell out your solution buddy. Small words will do. What have you got to offer? Anything?

#260 S.B. `~~You are an idiot

#260 Utopia on 03.13.11 at 8:17 pm

#256 BrianT

Utopia-You already posted an identical long winded post summarizing MSM drivel”.
———————————————————

No Brian, you are mistaken. It was not identical.

Like some others who have objected to my comments today you offer no valid counter points and do not address the topic.

You have simply thrown barbs (not witty ones either). If you have a legitimate argument opposed to my position and views then state them. Even feeble attempts are acceptable.

I am guessing you are a media consumer only though and are incapable of doing any analysis on the discussions that come up here and elsewhere. As a passive receiver you have nothing of substance to offer and no facts to work with.

Nor do you make the easy attempt to Google any fact that is readily available to offer a contrary opinion. I will therefore assume you to be a lazy individual and one with nothing to offer

Got anything else big shot?

#261 bridgepigeon on 03.13.11 at 8:20 pm

229 S.B.
deep breaths…

#262 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 03.13.11 at 8:35 pm


Chaos — Look at 2014 to be a year of unparalleled turmoil, and we’re just heading into it.

Dec. 24, 2011 is when the Mayan Age finishes, the Aztecs and Incas are due to follow in a few years.
*
#250 No propaganda — “Americans maybe stupid enough to believe your propaganda but Canadian are not.”

Unfortunately for Cdns., Harper and the bulk of the CPC are most decidedly pro-zionist warmongers.

That is enough reason to vote them into oblivion in the election.
*
HAARP and Japan’s ‘quake. Humanity is expendable. NMF That will help BP in the GoM enormously, and may do damage to Wisconsin, Michigan, etc.

Mag. 9.1 The ‘quake in Japan was updated to 9.1; link in shows what an 8.9 in SoCal would do.

Antarctica Pix in glorious technicolor. Lotsa GW there!

10:56 clip Killer tsunamis with haunting music in Japan.

US$ Declining As Dad (Nostradamus Jr.) says, the US is bankrupting TROTW through war and other means, before it slides into oblivion.

BBC — British Bungling Corporation in Libya. The Brits can’t run their own country properly, so how the hell can they run someone else’s?

One fraud after another.

#263 Brian1 on 03.13.11 at 8:44 pm

I want a no fly zone, but I don’t want a bunch of dictators calling the shots. I want more Muslim participation. I want Ghaddafi dead, but we don’t know who those other guys are. Did I mention that I want him dead. I want him dead,dead.

#264 Herb on 03.13.11 at 9:04 pm

#241 Utopia,

Forgive me for being blunt, but in which school of propaganda did you study your international relations?

#265 tmg on 03.13.11 at 9:16 pm

#201 and#202

That is probably why it is so difficult to find a rental. They’re just flipping the properties, I guess…not fun on the rental end of this madness, I can tell you that!

#266 Tiffa on 03.13.11 at 9:18 pm

#216 Moneta on 03.13.11 at 12:16 pm
It scares me to think that I might be penalized at some point for being fiscally careful. Anyone else feel the same out there?
—–
If you have bank stocks in your portfolio, it’s not as if you have not benefitted from people’s profligacies.

____

This rings true. I find some of the moral certainties expressed in this site confusing.

Why is it that any realtor is a demon for selling overpriced houses to unwitting buyers? Wouldn’t that suggest that anyone selling a house today, knowing the market is about to bust, is taking similar advantage? Isn’t then *anyone* selling at or near top, in any market, immoral, because clearly it’s at the expense of another? And what of me? My wages as a welder/fabricator over the last few years have often come from (probably wealth effect related) spending and building and renovation. Others’ poor decisions have been good to me. I try not to feel too superior about the fact that I’ll have stashed away that income for a rainy day, since I was happy to earn it in the first place, and I understand that I’ll have to pay for it in some ways, in the days to come.

#267 Look out below....CRASH! on 03.13.11 at 9:46 pm

Lots of Chinese selling in the Greater Toronto Area . My realtor buddy tells me smart money has almost sold out of RE and waiting for the crash. People who need to sell want out of the RE market bad. Sales have dropped nine months in a row which should tell you something. Worried realtors on this blog are spreading misinformation of a positive market but the reality is Canada faces a monster of a housing crash. Why else have sales fallen for nine months in a row? Does that sound like a strong market? Prices going up? please prices are falling across Canada. Enron made up numbers why can’t they? The public do not have access to the date so it can be easily manipulated. Sales is proof that RE in Canada has been falling for nine months. Canada RE market has dropped and is now at the edge where once over will fall much faster and harder. By summer and into fall the reality will all be to painful. Look at the chart Canada is going down hard! Sorry realtors that is the truth. If the market was doing well you would not be hear spreading lies and misinformation. Time for a new line of work realtors