Marty and his GF belong to a cult. Like all such sects, it has an omnipotent and omnivorous divine wizard, initiation rites, group hugs and an interactive web site. Three thousand cult members talk obsessively to each other in code, take bus trips together and believe they posses special knowledge and a sprinkling of fairy dust setting them apart from other humans. They crowd into three-hour meetings once a month and jam all-day cult workshops several times a year. Of course, they constantly hunt for new blood. It’s duty. For they are the chosen.
If you look deep into the eye slits of his wizard hood, you’ll discern a man able to inspire his flock into purchasing more than 26,000 properties and borrowing $3 billion. And it goes on. Every month, another 220 bleeding, pulsating deals are thrown at the feet of Donald R. Campbell, spiritual leader and resident deity of the Calgary-based Real Estate Investment Network.
REIN is boot camp for speckers and flippers. It preaches financial independence through the religion of real estate, and real estate only. One asset class. No diversification. No deviance. No other god. Members are prodded to continually spend on seminars, workshops, field trips and more, from $37 for an email to $1,500 for advice on commercial property. And everywhere, the power of leverage is front and centre.
Like these words, from a $1,000 course on how to use your RRSP to finance a house (hell, buy me a beer and I’ll spill…)
“The lever and leverage is one of man’s greatest discoveries. In a nutshell leverage is getting more for less and using the full advantage of resources at hand to accomplish a goal. In the case of Real Estate Investing and in the game of Monopoly, it means buying as many properties as possible with the cash available at hand. In the real world, it can also be translated to mean how little of my own money can I use as a down payment and still be able to buy the property.”
That epistle must have sent a hot little surge down Marty’s pants. So he and the babe scrapped together $14,000 and leveraged up a $275,000 newly-built semi in the city of Burlington, wedged between desperate Hamilton and conceited Oakville. But apparently owing $270,000 on a property which would never be in positive cash flow was not good enough. They went to other cult members to learn how to acquire more debt.
“It is now worth approx $380-$395 depending on upgrades, etc, etc.,” they gushed. “The question is, can we lease out this property while pulling out the equity from it?? Only 5% has been put down on the property, but my understanding is that there is new value to the property or equity due to its appreciation. Bottom line, is it possible to pull out the appreciation from this home and reinvest it elsewhere?”
Yes!, cried the other little REINs. You can pull out up to 90% of the value of the property – even if that added value is 100% illusionary. Plus CMHC will allow you to get insurance!
And I’m certain they will. You can read more here. It’s a small example of how emergency interest rates, rampant speculation and state-backed insurance of high-ratio, high-risk, wholly irresponsible real estate gambling has helped make homes unaffordable. Worse, this is the kind of mentality that helped push the US middle class over the edge and into a financial freefall. In Don Campbell’s world, debt’s never repaid because equity keeps swelling. Markets always rise. Buyers always score. And Global TV is always there when you need fresh virginal juices.
But what these financial whackos embody is a mentality which has swept through Toronto’s downtown condo towers and Vancouver’s delusional neighbourhoods. With banks willing to lend anyone heaps of money since Ottawa wipes away the risk, prices have catapulted higher on the back of speculation. Now we are left with two things. Houses families can’t afford. And steaming piles of risk.
As I’ve been telling you for some time, growing inflationary pressures will beget higher interest rates. Now that oil has touched $100 and foodflation is in every newscast, central banks have to do something to dampen prices. At the same time, the end of the 35-year mortgage in a month will not only help rid weasels and parasites like Marty and his wench, but also nail the market. Meanwhile millions of wheezing Boomers are finishing this RRSP season woefully aware they’ve got way more house than they do money. Soon the selling will start. And places like Ontario and BC are making matters worse by squeezing homeowners with higher property taxes and runaway electricity bills.
Already listings are surging – up 100% in some markets in the last five weeks. Soon supply will exceed demand by a long shot, and seven months of declining year-over-year sales numbers in most of Canada could turn into a rout.
If you’ve been shopping for a home, stop. If you’ve mulled selling yours, list now. If you’re in a conditional deal, get out. If you’re renewing, lock in. If you’re house-horny, look at this.
Works every time.
196 comments ↓
New Capital Economics report details their Canadian economic outlook. They see a housing downturn as ‘inevitable’. They calculate house prices are 40% overvalued. The drag from falling house prices and falling consumer spending will weigh on the economy….
Rumor is that once upon a time, Don Campbell asked Garth Turner for the time. Garth replied, “Two seconds until.”
When Campbell asked, “Two seconds until what?”, Garth kicked him in the coconuts.
mmm love 6-for-one-deals :)
So nice to read your blog again Garth after spending the last few weeks helping family in Qld. Oh how I have missed your (no so) common sense. I have a couple of tales to tell from the delusional I spoke to in Queensland but that is for another day. Today before checking I still have some decent grapes on the vines outside here is the usual update.
Aussie Update
http://www.news.com.au/money/property/homebuyers-oblivious-to-rates/story-e6frfmd0-1226009923103
http://www.smh.com.au/national/first-buyers-not-crucial-20110219-1b0dg.html
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/property/homeowners-face-tougher-times-ahead/story-e6freztr-1226008703929
Looks like some cheap BMWs on the market soon.
http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/luxury-bmws-a-debt-trap/story-e6frfmd9-1226008825157
Gotta feel for the “newbies.” They are of a generation who are going to get crushed. They are levered up to the hilt and are currently barely getting by. When the price of food and fuel (and pretty much all the necessities) go through the roof in the coming months, they will be looking for the exits and find none available. There will be no greater fool waiting to bail them out, the smart ones will eventually “rob” them of everything because of their stupidity. Then, and only then, will we see uprisings here at home. Carefully look south and you can see the seeds of discontent sprouting (Wisconsin, of all places).
“night time is the right time”
Only cults with such chants are the ones for me
On the subject of property taxes, it’s noteworthy that Rob Ford’s administration here in Toronto is getting these frozen for 2011 (per his campaign “promise”). But with a MASSIVE deficit expected for 2012, there will be all kinds of pain for Torontonians next year in the budget.
This will not end well.
“If you’re renewing, lock in” says Garth.
I have a guaranteed 5 year fixed rate with CIBC (got in early Feb when some banks started raising the rates) – for 3.59%. I am up for renewal in May. So I have time to decide, hope fixed rates go lower before having to renew. Or see the Bank of Canada start to raise its rate.
But my mortgage broker says stay with variable – currently I could get 0.85% below prime, a bit lower than what I currently have. Variable always wins he says as flexibility is key and even if rates do start to go up, I can lock in anytime without penalties. Locking in, in 2 years’ time in 2013 will ensure the next renewal won’t be for a further 5 years, thereby avoiding the 2015-16 rate increases by another 2 years.
He believes in 5-7 years the rates will be really high. He says in his 20 years as a mortgage broker he only heard regrets from those who locked in.
I think the spread between the current variable which is 2.15% and my guaranteed rate of 3.59% is small and will disappear altogether. I listen to Garth’s prediction of BoC raising its rate by 1% by December and another 0.75% by 2012.
I think going with the 3.59% is the route to go.
Any advice with these numbers?
“More for less”….if it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.
Garth, let’s talk about something sick. I make approximately the average Canadian family income. We are an early thirties couple with a newborn. By no means do we live ‘high on the hog’. Modest Ottawa townhouse currently needing a bathroom reno. that we can’t afford, we own 1 t.v., have snow tires, get our 5 year old car maintenanced each year, and attend weddings of close family members. Every month we find ourselves approximately $500 in debt. (monthly net income about $3800; living expenses about $4300)
Boy I’m glad I bought into this whole ‘real estate will make you rich’ scheme.
This can’t last and it can’t end well. It just makes me think what the hell are other families out there doing in order to get by?
Alas, I can sleep at night knowing at some point in time my partner will go back to work and the debt accumulation will stop……..
Aussie Roy – Welcome back!
10 Ayn Rand – whatever helps you sleep at night. 3.59 is stupid cheap historically.
Today, I was reading Toronto’s NOW newspaper. I can’t remember that exact numbers, but their special on Toronto Condos said in 2010, 2011, 2012, 20,000 condo units have come, are coming and will come online. That’s a lot of supply . . .
Emily Dee’s research on Jim Flaherty is coming along. She is overwhelmed but coping with all the evidence coming in.
Canada must get rid of these ReformAllianceCRAP clowns. STAT PEEPS! STAT!
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Harper let USA rob Canada’s money
Mark Carney, Stephen Harper and Jim Flaherty all held onto the myth that no one saw this economic crisis coming, despite the fact that almost everyone did. They just didn’t know what to do to stop it, because by the time the first rumblings of despair were heard, it was already too late.
With the American subprime industry drying up, Goldman Sachs needed fresh markets, and where better than Canada. They had a Republican and corporate friendly government in place, and no doubt knew of Flaherty’s appetite for shady deals.
Goldman Sachs employee, Mark Carney, was the deputy finance minister who no doubt arranged all the necessary meetings, given his contact list, and he had already made a killing off Canadian taxpayers with his Income Trust fraud.
So on May 1, 2006, AIG registered as a lobbyist and the next day, Flaherty included in his first budget, a little gem. He announced that his government was opening up the market to more private insurers.
http://pushedleft.blogspot.com/2011/02/jim-flaherty-goldman-sachs-and-aig.html
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# 10 Ayn Rand (Atlas Shrugged is a true classic)
If you must stay with your house, stay with the trend…ie stick to variable. If you can’t sleep due to a shrinking difference between variable and fixed, lock in.
Try and get some sleep as the rates in 5 years will be much higher.
Short term,1-2 years the govt will do everything they can to stop the inevitable rate rise from happening.
In the end, energy and local municipalities will own many houses as they seek cash to feed their crushing debt payments.
Regarding Garth’s cultists, the USA is littered with them. Whole families are living in fields in the west.
If the Middle East does not settle down in the next 2-3 weeks, oil will rise to new highs and change the lifestyle of most of us and particularly, the cultists.
“This will not end easy” will be an understatement.
To Whom it May Concern:
Based on the indiscreet discussion on this message board yesterday between Stevie B and The American, both of these individuals had to be taken out by our operatives. We simply could not stand idly by and have our triple secret, bonus oilfield reserves information revealed.
As you were,
The CIA
Sorry Garth…but I’m gonna go with Jim Willie’s views
on the future of the US$…
“A climax comes for an end of the USDollar. The extravaganza of monetary expansion ushers in the advent of hyper-inflation. The response will be an urgent global demand for monetary discipline. The Gold Standard is a device for that discipline. The demand for USDollar as well as other currencies comes from the failure of the bond world, including sovereign bonds. The supply for USDollars as well as other currencies comes largely from the Printing Pre$$, gargantuan government deficits, and coverage of black holes like the credit derivatives and Fannie Mae mortgages. Witness an historic bust of a fiat currency system resting upon numerous economies built atop bubbles. A revolution in currencies is in progress. Hyper-inflation in prices is well on its way, the aftermath from monetary hyper-inflation by reckless bankers insistent on bailing out bank failures, enabling bank frauds, and providing banker bonuses. Even Black Swan author Nassim Taleb urges avoidance of the USTreasury Bond and the USDollar. Taleb trumpets a theme, advising every single human being to bet Treasurys will decline because of the policies of USFed Chairman Bernanke and the Obama Admin. Taleb believes the United States is just like Greece, only without the Intl Monetary Fund to enforce discipline. Worse, the Euro Central Bank is often a voice of restraint, whereas the USFed is the grand centrifuge of inflation and perpetrator of monetary fraud. Bill Gross of PIMCO also believes the a bond riot would be a positive event to enforce debt discipline by the USGovt. The USTreasury Bond is the final asset bubble, but a very harmful one. Its bust will ensure an economic depression, and an explosion in the price of Gold & Silver, even crude oil. Gold is guaranteed to rise by double, and silver certainly much more. If a USTreasury Bond bust occurs, the Gold & Silver prices will rise to breathtaking levels. Those who believe Silver will be harmed by economic ruin are just plain morons. Their deflation arguments are the dumbest chapters written in our day, since they ignore the monetary inflation response and how Silver has been included as a monetary asset, even a reserve asset. ”
There will be no hyper-inflation and certainly no gold standard. And this is not a PM blog. — Garth
Off topic, but I’m looking for some advice.
My husband and I sold a property not long ago, and after paying down the mortgage on our present house, we are currently sitting on about 100K that we would like to invest. I’ve become wary of our present financial advisor who inevitably suggests Fidelity mutual funds and says ETFs are “risky” and “not around long enough to really know.” Any suggestions regarding a financial advisor in or near to either Calgary, Alta., or Cranbrooke, BC (both places we visit frequently – we live somewhere between)?
what happens when the FIRE industries die out? Will they be the same as the death(s) of real industry in N.America?
And many sit and wonder what in the hell has happened over the past 10 years….
American Manufacturing Slowly Rotting Away: How Industries Die
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article26453.html
Somebody linked to this yesterday and I have to say you are bang on. This is exactly the kind of young Vancouverite (slash Canadian) that Garth is talking about; all house and no liquidity. And note, her mortgage liability is split in HALF to calculate her net worth because she shares the payment with her boyfriend. Poor girl, and she won’t even see it coming.
http://youngandthrifty.ca/net-worth/youngandthrifty-net-worth-update-february-2011/
“The usd will be dead as the reserve currency by 2012. Russia and China are already trading oil in chinese currency.”
umm … so the solution is to trust Russian and Chinese central banks?
Gold play, meanwhile, looks to be a game for the wealthy only. Who in this age of flatlined income and rising living costs can afford to buy something so it can just sit there??
Hey Garth,
So I went to the web link for D. Campbell and personally think that what he says makes sense. From the clips I viewed of his various interviews done in 2009, he was not advocating going into every market. He was preaching the 3 rules of RE, ‘location, location, location’. Also he said that one must take a long term view of 5,7,10 years not the short term view of a speculator.
Frankly, interest rates have been at historic low rates and if you were not buying in the bubble markets of TO, Van or Saskatoon then it would make sense to buy. If you were in a market where the fundamentals were strong i.e. Kit-Wat were companies like RIM are hiring and there is a new post-secondary school being built and if you had a long term view then investing in RE back in 2009 made sense. You enjoyed 2 years of extremely low rates, when you could take the time to pay down the mortgage and over time increase your cash flow. If one takes the time to work through what Campbell is saying he is advocating the same thing an investor in the stock, preferred shares or bond market should be doing i.e. due diligence.
Shoggy.
So go ahead. Tell us how it works out. — Garth
| Already listings are surging – up 100% in some markets | in the last five weeks.
Don’t listings always go up at this time of year? Is that really abnormal in the spring?
Thanks for the link, it’s amazing to see a “professional” who dosen’t really understand the bond market, or the very basics of central banking and money creation.
Remember a house is not an asset, somones ability to pay the mortgage is the asset.
#8 LivinTheDream on 02.23.11 at 11:28 pm
Hi Garth,
What about these guys? http://heir.ca/ similar ‘opportunity’?
All I had to read was the first set of lines in the bullets….
Our goal is to help you:
1. Learn to give generously and receive graciously
RED FLAGS right there….. they want you to give them buckets of money and they will promise you the moon…. alas, who are they??? http://heir.ca/founder
Our Founder & CEO, Archie Robertson …. A pastor for twenty eight years … personally I DON’T trust men of the cloth … but it is your money
A fool and their money are soon parted. It’s just these days it’s done with the official seal and not by shady characters.
#15 Soylent Green is People
Good item…Thanks.
My suspicion is that when one Gov’t exhausts its “welcome”, and another is primed (ie odds on favourite to win), the vested interests have the incoming Gov’t programmed .
In Canada Federally it was Harper…
In BC it was Gordon Campbell…
While the electoral honeymoon is in place….all sorts of backroom deals are cut.
Canada’s opposition parties are disorganized, as was BC’s NDP inept and dysfunctional.
Slide in a Goldman Sachs alumni/incubi at a key position…..hey what a coincidence !!!!!!……..where’s the 6/49 Lotto Max booth?
#11 Ayn Rand
I broke a P -.75 VRM mortgage up for renewal in two years (small penalty) for a 5 year Fixed at 3.39% conventional mortgage with generous payment options. (5 year fixed are the sweet spot it seems)
I rolled in some HLOC (P +1%) with it.
I like the rate and the renewal timing (Jan. 2016) as I think we will be in the depths of hell in 2013. :O
I suspect a 5 year rate at 3.39% will never be seen again in my life time and definitely not in Garth’s.
This a realatively free country.
Marty is not a weasel. And if he is greedy, so are we all.
In this country we are free to pay our money and take our chances on real estate or anything else.
Good luck to all.
Set your money free, (invest as you want) if your money loves you, it will come back. If not, well, lesson learned.
Money loves brains it tends to run away from dumb people. It’s a sort of survival of the fattest.
God bless our freedoms…
Of interest to anyone following QE —> Asian bubble —> Van & GTA RE.
IMF report from G-20 over the weekend:
“In addition to well-known downside risks associated with real estate in major advanced economies, an emerging risk to the global recovery stems from a potentially steep price correction in Chinese property markets. Residential real estate prices in some of China’s larger cities have risen rapidly since the crisis, spurred initially by stimulative policies aimed at easing restrictions on real estate lending and subsequently by strong income growth, high savings, and limited alternate investment vehicles. Over the past year, the authorities have stepped up efforts to rein in property prices, recently announcing a range of measures, including raising the minimum down-payment for second-home buyers and enforced a 5½ percent business tax on properties sold within 5 years. Given the government guarantees in place, financial sector risks threaten the fiscal outlook. While it is difficult to predict how significant the stress from potential property price correction would be, if these risks are realized, there could potentially be global ramifications”
More via ZH
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-says-it-prepared-feed-worlds-hungry-while-invoicing-us-taxpayers-its-services
To be a fly on the wall……..
An uber mega Black Swan event….must have Ottawa shitting.
Here in Lotus Land…gas was at 126.3 cents a litre an hour ago.
Mubarak and Ghadafi have shafted F, H and C.
The RE collapse may be expedited via the Tsunami that North Africa has started .
F,H and C were trying to de-bubble…..s-l-o-w-l-y,…but any bubble survival is dependent on the butterfly effect…moreso in this global village scenario.
Think spearchucker…..or AK 47…your pick !
So Garth – What excatly are you selling? What is your agenda?
You say avoid Real Estate. Where should our $$ be invested then?
You must be new. Stick around. BTW, the only thing for sale here ever is a twenty-buck book on exactly what you queried. But you can get it at the library. — Garth
#18Randman and Garth: My understanding is that the majority of readers of this blog are here because they are attempting to educate themselves in order to make their financial futures as comfortable as possible. Look, Eric Sprott isn’t into Gold and Silver because of some psychological problem, he simply thinks they are the best place to put your money. This isn’t religion-with good guys and bad guys-the bottom line is what to do with our money and excluding precious metals or even underweighting precious metals because of political beliefs doesn’t make sense.
So, Garth, for the record: Is it still ok to have 5-10% of your net worth in Gold as you once advised? (And no I am not talking bars buried in the back yard but liquid stocks or some liquid fund like GLD or CEF.)
Also, when is Xurbia coming back? Maybe not as a sales site but as a coping site. This $hit going down in Egypt, Libya, and elsewhere is going to be big news. You’ve already eluded to that, but hardly with the gusto the situation deserves. It is already near to causing The Great Collapse 2.0.
And of course we have Wisconsin. These protests are more like the Greek protests where over paid/benefited workers are trying to keep their share of a shrinking pie at ever increasing levels. Not at all to be compared to the protests in the Middle East where the protesters really have nothing left to loose. They can’t be compared. The protestors in Wisconsin really are the enemy of the common person, on the government dole, taking all they can, whereas in the Middle East the protesters are the disenfranchised common man.
But yet it looks like the forecasts made by the wise all those years ago, that both situations were unsustainable, are coming to fruition. Despite our sensibilities that it would never happen.
Folks, prepare to be astounded at what will happen over the next 10 years, maybe faster than that. All of the institutions you’ve grown up with will be shown to be a paper edifice with nothing behind it. It’s all just ink numbers on a piece of paper, worth no more than that.
US economics: One big Ponzi scheme. http://r2.ly/6yw3
One question Garth;
Why do you promote the use of Realturds when your disdain for them is at par with those of us that wouldn’t touch the industry with a ten foot pole?
Have no idea what you are talking about. — Garth
This was just posted on Vancouver Condo Info
http://vancouvercondo.info/
Buying a flip? Budget for taxes.
February 23rd, 2011
As you’re probably aware, flipping real estate is a business and the Canada Revenue Agency is going to want their cut whether you’re a Canadian citizen or not.
But what if they can’t track down the foreign seller?
Then they’ll get it from the buyer.
That’s right, if you’re buying property from a foreign seller there’s a small but important detail you should be aware of:
Under section 116 of the Income Tax Act, when a non-resident disposes of taxable Canadian property, the purchaser “is required to withhold 25 per cent of the purchase price…until such time as a certificate of compliance is obtained by the non-resident vendor.”
The non-resident vendor is required to notify Canada Revenue of the disposition either prior to the sale or 10 days after the disposition date.
Fools. It’s called REAL estate – not POTENTIAL estate!
I just completed a wash and rinse cycle from my RSP return to my TFSA, cheers Garth for the insight.
Notied bright cheap yellow banners “New pricing” on those condos on my way up 14th street NW here in Calgary and surprise surprise lower than last fall.
Aussie Roy
Welcome back. At least I welcome your comments to this blog. Nice to hear from the folks from down under. We all face the same pressures and challenges from Banks, Governments, private sector lobbyists, etc… Keep commenting. Aussies face the same issues that we do here in Canada.
Hey Garth,
I’m new to your blog and love it! I was saving for a house and to hell with that now.. I’m going to invest my cash to stay liquid. I rang my realtor last week and told him to take me off his list. So now I’ve a dilemma. I’ve a large lump sum earning 1.35%!!!! I know, I know but I just don’t know what to do. Can you recommend a financial advisor that I could work with in Vancouver??
Thanks Garth and keep up the great work!
Jesse
311 Ayn Rand.
Peace of mind is worth a little bit, no mortgage at all is better. I remember when our mortgage went from 12.5% to 11.5%….we were so happy. If I could have had 5 years at 3.59%……..
By definitiom – wouldn’t the faithful on this blog be considered a cult? – just sayin ……
PS Garth, despite your protests, we will be going back to a commodity based currency system at some point, and in our (well, mine) lifetimes. Will it be gold backed? No, not likely. That is for Central Banks. How about silver? No, not enough around. Maybe actually controlling inflation with a zero inflation policy? Might work for a while. More likely a barter system will develop, outside the tax system, where goods and services are exchanged with no cash transaction. Piss the hell out of the government, but the only way to deal with corrupt laws is to circumvent them. And almost all laws are corrupt. There are only 2 that aren’t:
1. Do all that you promise to do.
2. Do not aggress on another person’s self or property.
All other laws are a scam, benefiting someone at someone else’s expense.
For those who want to wax philosophy, the first encompasses all contract law, the second all criminal law. No other laws are necessary with a fair jury.
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#207 Cellar Dwellar on 02.23.11 at 9:25 pm — “Insanity”
That is why we are where we are; most of the western leaders have gone potty, plain and simple. Plus More unneeded costs.
#212 Utopia on 02.23.11 at 9:46 pm — “. . . I for one am fed up with it.”
Pass on by, as one’s opinions are irrelevant. The clear evidence is there for everyone to see, and I’m not about to do anyone’s homework for them. Google Mordechai Vannunu and Benjamin Netanyahu quotes re: Sept. 11 for further info.
It has nothing to do with Israel or the Jewish people, only zionism because zionists are the ones causing the bulk of the problems in the world. If you choose to keep the blinkers on and ignore the reality of life, fine.
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#6 LJ — “Carefully look south and you can see the seeds of discontent sprouting (Wisconsin, of all places).”
The elite are laughing all the way to the bank and, as said earlier, TPTB fund both sides to keep them fully operational; short-term pain for long-term gain.
It’s similar to a Rolling Stones worldwide tour. The first half is paying bills, etc. Then the halfway point, following which everything is gravy. That’s how the big boys work.
TPTB won’t stop until the world is awash in wars.
#22 kc — Good link about why mfg. is dying here. Wages and benefits too high, bust unions by simply building new plants and moving overseas.
This is what Rupert Murdoch did in England for The Sun and News of the World papers. While all the union fatcats were boozing their paycheques away, Murdoch quietly had brand new office premises built, composing and pressroom facilities without the union ever knowing about it.
Then he switched production, shut down the old building and the riots in London ensued in the mid to late ’70s. The deadwood is gone now.
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“It’s duty. For they are the chosen. The cult of idiocy.” — That is their freedom of choice to place themselves under someone else’s control, which takes away that freedom of choice.
I would rather use TFSAs and invest in Valladium, Uranium and other penny stocks, let them build up to $18-$25 a share then cash out heeding Garth’s advice.
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Uprising in China? Probably not. The govt. would put most civilians into military positions to prevent it.
If the stock market is flying, why is the economy tanking?
Eight Banks closed in Korea, which might explain the heightened tensions between the two Koreas.
Providence, R.I. is broke and China’s hard landing.
Hi guys, I see lots of adds “rent to own”. What is that?
How does Canada manage to keep inflation at bay at 2.3% with such low interest rates?
TD CEO only makes over $10MM. Reminds me of my multinational company where CEO made far more than this amount but all employees fly economy EVERYWHERE while he takes corporate jet! Finance guy got a great bonus as well.
Barely any income increases to be seen anywhere in North America with huge commodity inflation and increasing taxation as Garth has said before. Only 5% of employees at my multinational got a raise in last 3 years and they may freeze again in Europe and North America.
I still think that there’s some greater fools out there who may keep real estate relatively level until end of this year despite all of warning signs – same signs as in 2007 but emergency rates already exhausted but could they dump rates again if demand tails off with oil and commodities tanking again. So, while common sense would suggest that housing should have died long ago even with declining sales of late, it has bounced by significant double digits in some centres from 2009.
Worst case but what “if”, the magic coaxing “if”, our beloved Flarp has fluked out with a goal scoring deflection off his gluteas maximus and USA economy is actually recovering and inflation somehow saves him as housing gets dragged along with the improving sentiment from the USA after initial short term real estate dip. Hear no evil but he’s been luckier than heck already and not scored with his stick yet.
Multinationals have recovered for now. However, these companies are not hiring here and their sales are growing strong in Far East and Middle East and so their profits come back but Canadian workers still sitting on the bench in manufacturing, engineering, accounting while China and India take those fleeting jobs. Many 50-60 year olds out of work for 2 years. No new hires and wage increases here in Canada. Look at any multinational % of revenue geographically and it seems more reasonable that stocks can roll while we in Canada languish, lose jobs and stagnate income wise – of course, QE2 helps and bond yields suck, of course. I believe that we will recover eventually but it is too bad that we didn’t take the medicine in 2008. Even with our sick big, big brother to the south, even with lack of income increase in face of rampant inflation and taxes, with our boomers having no money but comfort and identity embedded in that “family home” worth tons, I think that there is a chance that this real estate game still might have some game after watching in dumbfounded awe the manipulation, foolishness and greed I have seen since 2005 and still occurring this very day.
We see the greenback relatively “strong” despite massive QE, the ability of US debtors thumbing their nose at bondholders, the ability of banker bonuses to be at record highs with little guys being crushed, the ability of media like MaxHeadroom world to completely bamboozle the masses who only pick up the sound bite barely capable of critical analysis being too tired of the crap thrown in front of them daily in tech ad world.
I don’t know, Garth, I really see the RE fall is absolutely inevitable but I have been thinking this way for many years. It’s an exceptional run with kids living so far beyond their means. Nothing surprizes any longer. I couldn’t believe it when they brought in 0/40’s. I was flabbergasted when they dropped BOC interest rates to 0.25%. Political expediency seems to overwhelm all common sense, debt management or threat of bondholders calling for more risk %’s. On the consumer side, it’s like people are completely gambling and going “all in” in real estate as they aren’t making strides in income and they don’t trust the stock market – still, the safe bet. Real estate and financial markets are the new economy as it was in USA. Not much to go on but it’s still working with even more free cash than USA with no bank risk barely lubricated and gritty like a bad beach romp grinding sideways (sorry). If the economy tanks, will they drive down rates again for political expediency and spin it as another financial emergency? I can’t completely dismiss this scenario as they got away with it for last couple years despite commodity inflation. Demand continues to be in doldrums despite QE, economy gives up a little more, rinse, repeat but when will bondholders stand up and demand more from us and the USA debt with no serious plan in sight? I guess that’s the power of USA and that greenback backed by a little arsenal and it’s not gold. Nuts. Makes it interesting and almost 100% unpredictable. We are grasshoppers in this crazy world. After being wrong on real estate and facing wrath of hockey buds for 6 years and despite all indicators pointing to being right (for once), I am still not betting against large government intervention constanting changing natural markets despite all of many and often discussed factors as headwind to real estate here in Canada. Nuts. Over. OTBL
#15 Soylent
Could not your oh so noble and righteous Libs, NDP and Bloc taken down the Gov’t STAT.
Oh right, I remember – they didn’t.
Red Deer Alberta Real Estate Stats:
Houses over 500k sold Feb MTD 2010 – 5
Houses over 500k sold Feb MTD 2011 – 0
That’s zero sold, according to local realtors the only houses selling are those under 300k where suckers are buying overpriced shacks worth less that 1/2 of what they are asking for in order to ‘get in’ before March 18 rules kick in. Sad, really sad, stupid, really stupid.
Sounds like the Ozzie Jurrock/ Michael Campbell Cult. Everything financial assest can go up and down except real estate, especially Vancouver real estate, where the C word is for losers and demented people who may have an association with Garth and squirrel hunters.
To remain a member of this west coast cult, you also must have a sick and disturbing obbsession with anti-celebrity to the point where you wake up at night fixated and knashing one’s teeth on how much Kim Kardashian sells her ass to the papparazzi for. While all you get is a short plug on Global on Sunday morning when no one is watching or cares WTF you have to say cause you’re the ex-premier’s brother and no one has a clue why else you’re even getting air time.
People want to believe in something. Those of us who were not taught by our parents to believe in the true God, create their own idols, be it houses, stocks, gold or other silly things, and end up paying the price not only financially but also mentally.
Take an honest look at what your true values are to see whom or what you actually serve… Warning: you will not like what you see, because the truth is not politically correct but it will offer true healing. If you feel angry now, good, make friends with it. It will teach you something. This is the first step.
#11 Ayn Rand
95% of the time variable is the way to go. Right now might be in the 5% range. It all depends on how high you think rates are gonna go and how fast.
Lets start the 5 year term today just for arguments sake. So the rate difference is 1.44% (3.59-2.15). Do you think that the variable rate will go to 3.59% in 2.5 years? And then 2.5 years after that the rate will be 5.03% (3.59+1.44)? Because if you think that will happen, then you break even with either rate. If you think the variable rates wont go high that quick, you will be ahead choosing the variable.
If the discount for variable rates is the same (prime -0.85) in 2.5 years, that means that prime will have to be 4.4%. Very possible. It also means that in 2.5 years after that, prime will have to be 5.88%. For you to break even.
This is not directly related to “The Cult” or REIN (topic of the day). Also, I know that the situation in Libya and neighbouring countries is at the forefront of every one’s consciousness these days. However, my main obsession these days remains to be China because the country has a bigger and more direct impact to our economic prosperity, in general, and RE, in particular (as discussed here in recent days). For these same reasons that I think that China poses a bigger threat to Canada’s economic future (and by extension RE’s)
Over 60% of China’s GDP can be attributed to their construction boom. This cannot last for long and it continues to show signs of stress in the last twelve months. When the boom turns into bust, our economy will lose its biggest benefactor (okay, maybe second biggest, next to the USA but they have even bigger problems down there).
Imagine what happens to these so-called Chinese RE investors when their RE investments at home turn sour? Will they continue to invest in our RE here? I believe even the Chinese are capable of learning from their own experience (just like the Americans recently have and, soon, us Canadians will, also). It’s all about sentiments but unfortunately we seem to lack to ability to learn from other people’s mistakes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7q-pE6X8j8
P.S. A brother just moved back from the US and immediately bought a house in Milton. A sister is selling her house in Oakville and is thinking of buying (downsizing) in Milton. I have been sharing my opinion on RE to them since Q3 last year (even sent them a link to this blog). Breaks my heart :(. This is our reality these days.
Yay Aussie Roy is back!
Some people say they worship God, Yahweh, or Allah,
Some say R/E, Mutual Funds, or the Stocks,
but what you all really worship is oil, and if oil was $12 a barrel like it was in December 1998 everything would be cool (perhaps a little gassy) and we’d all just be burning our way into some good old GDP.
It’s not just R/E. Almost every stock onthe stock market is over valued for $100 oil.
That’s much better! I prefer only the girls on the right though.
All of the “it’ll never happen here folks” just need to remember that the US in absolute freefall with less than 5% of people in foreclosure. Housing was way past done before that number ever got to 3%. Interest rates went up a little when prices flattened and guess what? Minimum down people couldn’t refi without bringing a check to the closing. If that happens to any house that’s a comp for yours, you get dragged down too.
Garth is right. Barring a shock, there will be a long slow melt. With an oil shock or a debt crisis, all bets are off.
Once someone yells “Fire!” in a crowded theatre, there’s a rush to the exits regardless how good the movie is.
Yes, we’re seeing an avalanche of listings. Sellers want out before the mortgage rules are changed. Buyers are now more concerned about price than the mortgage rules being changed. And why not? They know that prices are about to plummet.
Last one out, turn off the lights.
Been lurking for years and have noticed a definite change in GT lately. You’re going all Bob Hoye on us. It is a little disconcerting, but I’ll live.
I’m from the US and own a ton of real estate debt free. Appraised at $2.5 million a few months ago, but in reality worth nothing. And my margins have been getting crushed. Taxes, cost of materials and service calls have all skyrocketed in price. Credit is so tight that people can’t even manage to borrow $200k. I am as illiquid as granite and if I had to sell, SOL wouldn’t even do the situation justice. I used to be rich, but now I appear to be essentially broke. My father started with an inheritance of $75k and turned it into $5M over 40 years. Now I’ve completed the round trip.
#21 Karla;
the best “financial advisor (for Karla) in or near to either Calgary, Alta., or Cranbrooke, BC or somewhere in between”, is an educated Karla.
No person will ever care quite so much about Karla’s financial well-being as will Karla!
Suggestions; buy books about Canadian investments and tune in to BNN. The very best to you. YOU can do it as many others do. Become an investor not a trader. Focus on creating an “orchard” (which bears fruit on the “trees” you may buy) rather than a “timber forest” which is harvested by cutting down those same trees.
Hopefully this signpost has not been too cryptic(?).
Just some info:
Vancouver has more attached houeholds now than SFH. Over 50%.
559,000 newcomers entered Canada last year. Over 200,000 to the GTA… what’s 20,000 condos coming online gonna do….oversupply? yeah right!..they will be rented out in a flash!
No one believes that the BOC will raise intrest rates ‘because it will bankrupt homeowners’….Bwahahahahahahahahahahahah.
This is why the pugnacious real estate pimps are so confident….They dare the government to call their bluff and risk a wave of negative sentiment going into an election……While that is quite an amateur interpretation of Machiavellian insight …it is a general consensus. Machiavelli also said that dumping all the bad news in a sudden rush was also an effective strategem…….hmmmmmmmm…someone stands to lose either way…..I don’t think it will be the government. Didn’t ‘F’ handle the trust issue in the same Machiavellian manner and get re-elected?
Omnivorous divine wizard, initiation rites, group hugs, interactive web site, obsessive code-talking, crammed meetings, self-assured fairy dust…
Except for the hugs and the omnivory, sounds an awful lot like Rev. Garth and the Greater Fool Doomsday Cult.
But what the hell… the Kool-Aid here is delicious!
A few years ago I attended one of the REIN ‘seminars’.
The ‘opportunity’ that evening was a rental townhouse development in Red Deer.
The working-class renters were going to be in for a huge shock when they learned just how much the REIN group buyers intended to raise their rents.
That was the last time I attended. Thanks for writing about this group.
First time commenting here…..
Honestly, I dunno what to think of the Greater Vancouver real estate situation anymore. Fundementally, it doesn’t make much sense to keep going up like that. But ever since the financial crisis, the world economic situation do not make much sense either if one tries to apply economic fundementals on them. Honestly, i don’t think anyone can predict what’s to come. It’s really very much a guessing game.
And I think BC or even within the greater vancouver real estate market is becoming a 2 different tier categories. The high end real estates like detached homes on the west side of vancouver and coal harbour area apartments seem will be able to hold their price; they are no longer catering to the average earners. While some homes and apartments seem never able to sell. I’m not sure if we’ll see a big drop unless something really bad happen in the financial world, people like canada because they think that it is a “stable” country. But on the other hand; given the tax system and the expenses involve in real estate investment here in Canada, on the surface it doesn’t seem to be the best choice for investors to invest real estate here in Canada. But at the same time many people do like to move to BC; especially greater vancouver. Anyway; all is very cofusing,; it’s very much a guessing game.
#15 Soylent Green is People,
Sigh. Here we go again. This is a Real Estate Blog. Your tenacity at poushing your personal agenda rivals that of Devil’s Advocate. I hope you are proud to be lumped into that group.
Hello Everyone;
I have been a fan of this site for quite some time and I have a question. Is there any easy way to short the toronto or Vancouver housing market? In the States there used to be an index called the case-schiller index. Do we have anything similar here?
Thanks in advance.
Great work Garth – Please keep it up.
#11 Ayn Rand
You can’t lose if you stay with a variable rate mortgage. You’ll save hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of the mortgage. I pity the fools who take out five year mortgages. My guess is interest rates will fall both here and in America for the rest of this year.
There will be no hyper-inflation and certainly no gold standard. And this is not a PM blog. — Garth
Maybe not this year, maybe not the next year, but don’t be so confident in no hyperinflation. I’d call hyper inflation anything over say 50% per month. Oil is getting close to that number, some food prices are pushing that level too. Then they’ll come out with a new stimulus plan to really kickstart inflation…..
Hyper-inflation is a political act, not an economic consequence. Did you know that? It will never happen in North America. — Garth
I was given a copy of “Real Estate Investing in Canada: Creating Wealth with the ACRE System” by Don R. Campbell to read. It even comes with a handy CD-ROM.
I suggest you read “Money Road” by Garth Turner first, then TRY and read Campbell’s book; you won’t be able to finish it. I was biting my tongue for the whole 100 pages that I did complete. Campbell’s program may have worked coming out of the 1989 bubble burst, but it is a recipe for how to loose your ass in 2011-2016 for a patch of ground you will never live on (you’ll be the landlord). Campbell is Canada’s Tom Vu.
Garth is right: sell Canada, buy America.
I’ve been looking online at manufactured homes in a gated golf course 55+ community in FLA. In 2007 they were averaging $70K US, now a lot of them can be had for $25K US. I know of one that sold for $17K fully furnished. My parents sold theirs in 2007 for $70K and have rented each winter since.
And the prices keep tumbling…
#51 City Slicker on 02.24.11 at 1:51 am
How does Canada manage to keep inflation at bay at 2.3% with such low interest rates?
It won’t be able to. Which is precisely why interest rates will be heading UP over the next couple of years.
While I fear the economic consequences of the impending real estate correction, one thing that I do look forward to is an end to the conceit of so-called real estate “investors.”
Recently, I was casually shopping the local rental market, and, the attitude oozing from some of the ads was just mind boggling. The worst offender stated that the tenant “selected” would have the privelage of paying almost double the going rate for a decent looking bachelor pad. It was almost as if you were applying for a job or something.
My way of thinking is that I have cash, and, the landlord is my employee, who can be hired and fired, with or without cause, with or without notice.
It’s hard to feel any compassion for anyone that’s wilfully indentured themselves to a bankster in a spirit of contemptuous greed toward their fellow man.
Thanks so much for the welcome back..
It might be time to share a tale, before I go on this is a real story, seriously I couldnt make this up. Sitting enjoying a great SA red one evening with a group, various ages and backgrounds, the subject turned to RE. Only my son and daughter are aware I have been a long term RE investor and of course know my feelings towards the current state of the market and know I sold all my properties a couple of years ago. I sat quietly listening to all the usual rubbish and delusion until a gentleman (Steve) in his 40s mentioned he thought there was no better investment as he was not able to find anything that yielded >20% pa.
Wow I thought, I asked how much of this yield was capital gains, the reply was none. I was puzzled and tempted to pull out the cheque book, could there be such rental yields on offer that I have missed, could the current average national rental yield of 4.5% be wrong.
To cut a long story short, after many more questions it turned out this numnut (sorry Steve) was using the price he paid back in 1990s but the current rental return to calculate his yield.
It turns out this was his position, property purchased for 100ishk 1990s (current) annual rent 20k, current properties value 485k, It took a further 30 minutes and only after having to explain some VERY basic investment fundamentals his yield was actually under 4%. He still looked puzzled with an almost I must be crazy look. The penny only dropped when I asked the question if you sold the property and stuck the proceeds in the bank at 5.5% how much income (yield) would he receive in interest.
Steve and I had many more chats and shared many more bottles of red. Its nice to know I set him straight but I do wonder how many more specvestors are as mis informed as Steve was. I fear many, many more in both our countries as the house religion blinds them with b&%@$hit.
Howdy BPOE by the way I read your forced saving comment from yesterday, must be a typo you must mean “forced spending”.
Worth a read re Australia and the last 30 years.
“The poor white trash of Asia.” It is some 30 years since a typically arrogant Lee Kuan Yew wrote off Australians with these derisory words.
Full story
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/opinion/after-30-years-of-boom-is-australias-luck-about-to-run-out/424522
#21 Karla
I think one of you should aim to become financially literate, such that you are able to invest in a sensible diversified portfolio of your own choosing. Don’t take any individual’s advice as gospel, but instead get a broad range of opinion.
A lot depends on what your risk tolerance is, and this is affected by your age and what kind of lifestyle you wish to maintain in your latter years.
#78 Love this Blog on 02.24.11 at 7:48 am
#15 Soylent Green is People,
Sigh. Here we go again. This is a Real Estate Blog. Your tenacity at poushing your personal agenda rivals that of Devil’s Advocate. I hope you are proud to be lumped into that group.
……………………………………………………………………………..
Agreed.. We all get it, you don’t like Harper.. Problem is Ive never voted in federal elections and now, because of you Im voting for Harper.. I don’t care if he turns out to be a warewolf, your constant, annoying off topic posts have pushed at least one vote towards your enemy.. good work.
#53 Rory,
isn’t it great for your CPC that many voters so far haven’t distinguished between “ignoble and self-righteous” and “noble and righteous”?
Do tell Harper to keep up the good work: he’ll educate the suckers yet.
It has nothing to do with Israel or the Jewish people, only zionism because zionists are the ones causing the bulk of the problems in the world. If you choose to keep the blinkers on and ignore the reality of life, fine.
#49 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad
Because Canadians are the ones causing the bulk of the problems in the world. If you choose to keep the blinkers on and ignore the reality of life, fine.
You are antisemitic nazi and will be destroyed, as all nazis before you.
This conversation is over. — Garth
#78 Love this Blog,
would you believe that real estate does not operate in a vacuum but in a political environment?
#38 nonplussed
“the protestors in Wisconsin really are the enemy of the common person, on the government dole, taking all they can, whereas in the Middle East the protesters are the disenfranchised common man.”
You are wrong about this. The Wisconsin protestors are among the common men. Most of them are facing oblivion and are fighting back.
The enemies of the common man are the bankers and the politicians that are in their hip pocket.
The favourite tactic of the monied classes is to pit one subsection of the common man against another. Divide and rule. In your case they seem to have succeeded.
Don’t buy into their propaganda. There should be solidarity among all members of the ordinary wage earner class, no matter if they are government or private sector.
Class warfare in Wisconsin? Are you for real? This is all about entitlement. — Garth
More great insights this week by Marc Faber.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0-_Q1I0bu0
here in Ottawa realtors pitch buy 3 homes for the price of one , the best time to buy a house was yesterday
they seem to forget about the key question, Debt
.#51 City Slicker on 02.24.11 at 1:51 am
How does Canada manage to keep inflation at bay at 2.3% with such low interest rates?
The answer as Marc Faber explains in the video I posted is simple. They are lying to us about the inflation rate. Hasn’t everyone noticed that prices have gone up well beyond the official inflation rate? The feds everywhere are lying about inflation so they can continue to keep rates low and the debt orgy going.
The end is nigh and here’s why:
yesterday I learned that my neighbour’s daughter (who turned 21 yesterday) is buying a condo in the ‘ssauga. No finished studies (they’re on hold), a job in a marketing company and she paid about 180k for the box-in-the-sky. 5/35 (no surprize) and she rushed to buy now before F’s grace period ends.
Looks like the RE market is squeezing the last drops out of the pool of potential buyers. Spring will be VERY interesting! I already stack up on popcorn ‘n Coke.
#51 City slicker
“How does Canada manage to keep inflation at bay at 2.3% with such low interest rates?”
Two reasons:
1) The underemplyment rate is still quite high, and this means there is little to no upward pressure on wages.
2) Currency appreciation versus the US dollar. And because the Yuan is basically stable against the US dollar, both Chinese and US stuff has gotten a lot cheaper for Canadians over the past 2 years.
When the US economy truly recovers and the loonie goes back to around 85 cents, there will be a surge of inflation in Canada.
And in case you haven’t noticed, there has been a lot of asset price inflation in Canada (stocks, precious metals, even real estate).
‘Soylent Green is People’ and ‘Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad’ should be overfed with Soya beans until they stop posting unrelated issues on this blog. This is a real estate blog for Allah’s sake. I am interested in what you guys have to say, but you are just in the wrong place.
Btw, I do believe in hyperinflation Garth. It is a political consequence, you are right. In a working economy, deflation would be the name of the game, as efficiency and demand lowers prices. The function of a good economy is to make the lives of people better despite the scarcity of resources.
However, I do not think we Canadians understand the concept of scarcity. We think that stuff does not run out. Watch out though. Oil is $100 per barrel now, and will keep going up – and your mamas cannot stop it from going up.
I was watching the first bit of that inside toronto real estate show last night and it was hard to watch the propoganda that was being displayed.
It was a total news flash to me when I heard the man say the Toronto Condo market may be “undersupplied” and of course the pumpers were busy pumping away the Toronto market.
I am extremely dissapointed in the host of the show. He said he searched the internet blogs for why people think we may be in a bubble and what he said he found was rising food and gas prices. Common, you can most certainly do better than that! I know you’re a blog dawg so I hope you read these comments.
If you want to bring respect and credibility on the show you need to bring more than just real estate pumpers to your show on a consistent basis!
#63 REIN-misery:
Let me disagree on your last point….if this guy is as smart and savvy enough to build himself a little self-help scam (errr empire), like that, with huge margins on his tapes, books, etc., he’s probably smart enough not to actually eat his own cooking. I would not worry that he’s out there frontrunning the local real estate market. I really wouldn’t.
Talk about putting lipstick on a pig…..
Today’s Calgary Herald is trumpeting that Alberta leads the nation in housing affordability, and is now the best it’s been in 6 years.
If one wanted to be just a tad cynical about the gruel we are being fed by a bunch of self-interestd, uber-promotional wankers, how else could one interpret that data? I don’t know about you, but I feel no urge to grab my checkbook at all.
To: #50 BuBu on 02.24.11 at 1:45 am
Hi guys, I see lots of adds “rent to own”. What is that?
That is the final desperate stage when standing inventory cannot be sold. It is a way for a builder to get someone to cover expenses. It was popular in TO back in the early 90’s.
#14: TO Renter, yes, that is a lot of inventory coming onto the market in Toronto. This 20,000 number is CORRECT and it will be ADDITIONAL inventory on the Toronto market by 2012. This does not include existing inventory. Now, can we put that in perspective?
Toronto has a population roughly 2.5MM people, with a metro of about 5.1MM people. New York City has a population of 8.4MM people, and a metro of roughly 19MM people. As a city, NYC is 336% larger than Toronto, and as a metro NYC is 372% larger than Toronto. NYC’s inventory today is only 12,296 condos, townhomes, brownstones, lofts, and co-ops combined.
I’d continue renting if I were you. There is nothing more to say.
#56 Axehead,
You are right.I am keping a watch on market in Red Deer.
Price reduction have again started just like last year.But not many houses on market.
Spring summer will be interesting.
The smartest friend I have, in financial terms, has been “going liquid” for the last year now. Everything he does seems to work out for him. I live in Kamloops. Housing here is also ridiculous. Prices have shot through the roof but nobody really knows how the prices are justified- except our local realtors, of course! They give numerous reasons but still do not look at the basic fundamentals when quizzed about the increase. I tell them if Edmonton gets hit it’s only a matter of time before a city like this in B(ring) C(ash) does as well.
At least Marty didn’t buy a semi in Hamilton. That would have been incredibly stupid. Hamilton is just a few more industrial closures away from being just like Detroit. The parallels are startling IMHO. “Desperate” definitely fits Hamilton.
Dawgs! I’ve got 20 months left on a 3.5 % mortgage, balance o/s is $109k.
Should I pay the $1,200 penalty plus $600 legal costs and lock in a new 5-year mortgage at 3.5% again?
Cheers.
Hyper-inflation is a political act, not an economic consequence. Did you know that? It will never happen in North America. — Garth
Absolutely, the government not only controls you (me), they control everything.
Robert Dudek/Garth,
” #38 nonplussed
“the protestors in Wisconsin really are the enemy of the common person, on the government dole, taking all they can, whereas in the Middle East the protesters are the disenfranchised common man.”
You are wrong about this. The Wisconsin protestors are among the common men. Most of them are facing oblivion and are fighting back.
The enemies of the common man are the bankers and the politicians that are in their hip pocket.
The favourite tactic of the monied classes is to pit one subsection of the common man against another. Divide and rule. In your case they seem to have succeeded.
Don’t buy into their propaganda. There should be solidarity among all members of the ordinary wage earner class, no matter if they are government or private sector.
Class warfare in Wisconsin? Are you for real? This is all about entitlement. — Garth”
Here is another take on the Wisconsin protests:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/matt-stoller-the-liquidation-of-society-versus-the-global-labor-revival.html
S. Wolin provides an accurate contextualization of these events in his work entitled ‘Democracy Inc.’.
#38 Nonplused said (in part):
” …the protestors in Wisconsin really are the enemy of the common person, on the government dole, taking all they can, whereas in the Middle East the protesters are the disenfranchised common man….”
———————————————————-
Just a comment on the above …. these so called “enemies of the common person” are municipal workers including teachers, garbage collectors, bus drivers etc …. those are pretty common folk!! I think that nonplused is referring to his “bad union” complex … I am myself am not a union fan, actually don’t like them that much, but these folks believe that this is there only leverage against BIG government or BIG business etc and having been in that world …there is some truth too it.
If you don’t like unions …say ….” I don’t like unions” don’t blame ordinary working people for your fears and hang-up’s… quacks …duck!!
just saying!!
simkev ….out!
#88 Northern_dirt on 02.24.11 at 9:11 am
“…Agreed.. We all get it, you don’t like Harper.. Problem is Ive never voted in federal elections and now, because of you Im voting for Harper.. I don’t care if he turns out to be a warewolf, your constant, annoying off topic posts have pushed at least one vote towards your enemy.. good work.”
Please tell me you’re being absurd just to rile up SGIP. I shudder to think what our forefathers who died in WWI and WWII for our democratic way of life would think of you using your vote to spite a blogger. Even if you don’t have much faith in the democratic process, you owe it to our forefathers to get informed on the issues, get involved and use your vote intelligently to support the candidate that reflects your vision of what this country should be.
I purchased my house 12 years ago on the basis of one of Garth’s real estate books. At the time it was the “second” worst house on one of this Ontario town’s nicest streets. Purchase price $195,000. Small ranch style home on close to half-acre lot at the end of a cul-de-sac surrounded by conservation land. The worst house on the street has long been ripped down as have several other homes to be replaced by very tasteful million dollar homes. People are scooping up these homes, ripping them down and building large homes because of the huge yards. Although the homes are large, they do not overpower the properties. I am now surrounded by homes worth $1 million. My neighbour sold his property (1-acre lot) for $600, the ranch home was ripped down and a 3700-plus-sq-foot home is now being built on it.
My point is twofold.
1) The original very nice and comfortable 1950s style homes in my neighbourhood are already valued at zero. It’s the land and the land only that has any value. If people think condos can only go up they are kidding themselves. Sooner or later they pretty much go to zero.
2) With all the expensive homes now surrounding me, my taxes are going sky high. My wife and I love the neighbourhood, the big yards, the deer in the backyard, the ravine that surrounds us. But we fear we will be forced out because of taxes. (we have no mortgage)
So, houses do go to zero faster than most think. And even if you have paid off your mortgage, you are still a slave to property taxes.
Imagine how quickly these shoddily-constructed homes that are built today will go to zero.
I still think real estate can be a good investment if you (to quote Garth) “buy the right home at the right time, pay it off quickly …. and don’t get caught in the over improvement camp.”
just my 2 cents….
Wages rising ….time to buy that $1.5 million dollar Vancrack shack….or $700k box in the sky….or wait they are SOLD OUT….damn! $872.12/week is all you need to earn.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Average+weekly+earnings+year/4338940/story.html?tab=PHOT
This week I finally hit my breaking point. Unlike many on the blog, I’ve been hoping for a mild correction to RE since many of my friends and family would get hammered by a shock. I tried long ago to convince them of the perils and was shot down and ridiculed so I now just keep my mouth shut.
So I’ve come over to the dark side. I hope it melts down big time and sends people scrambling in panic. I hope gas hits $200 and food prices soar, interest rates shoot up and the market becomes a black equity devouring hole. I’m going to sit in my nearly paid for, locked in at 3%, “tiny (by today’s standards)” energy efficient house in a great location near transit with my balanced investment portfolio (that is well above pre-meltdown value even though it’s apparently a stupid waste of money).
At that point, I’m going to reflect upon about the thousands of time I’ve been asked why I don’t buy a rental property or upgrade to a “Better” house or have been told that real estate is the best investment.
But mainly I’m going to work on my sinister laugh.
Correction: Should have said Oil hits $200.
111 Kaganovich on 02.24.11 at 11:48 am
yeah so the non union folks should shut up and pay their taxes so the ones in government unions get to live comfortably?
I think we adjust the wages to fit the present reality.
I think teachers and firemen are overpaid.
Firemen especially.
I worked for 21 years in a sawmill and we never got anything like the benefits of those guys.[on the job bbq’s!?!]
and ,of course our job was way, way more dangerous.
we lost 50 t0 120 men a year for the 21 years I worked.
how many firemen died on the job in that time.?
I would never dream to blame Big Igg for the sins of Harper. Back in my day, blaming the government meant blaming the government.
Plus, remember when Big Ig tried to call an election to get rid of King Harper in September 2009 and Canadians BLOODY screamed they didn’t want another election. Blame your freaking selves for the disaster that is Herr Harper.
‘Mr. Harper, your time is up’
Liberals vow no-confidence vote in next sitting of House
Last Updated: September 2, 2009 5:13am
http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009/09/02/10714536-sun.html
.
.
.
♥
Hyper-inflation is a political act, not an economic consequence. Did you know that? It will never happen in North America. — Garth
And you think that the US administrators won’t inflate for political reasons? If I owed trillions and could reduce my burden (and the burden of my over-indebted population), I would not hesitate to trim my coins or split my bills in half as many times as necessary until balance was restored.
The US will inflate. QE3 will happen as things progress.
There will be no US hyper-inflation. — Garth
Actually, Don Campbell lost me when he started touring rural Alberta and pushing properties in towns with 10K people and one source of income.
Even in Calgary & Edmonton I firmly believe REIN was responsible for a lot of the sudden price appreciation.
In fact, when his group started selling Calgary & buying Edmonton, price appreciation in Calgary slowed/reversed and in Edmonton all of a sudden spiked. But that’s just my own paranoid opinion.
His books contain useful advice as a previous poster mentioned.
Looks like Mish disagrees with the notion of higher oil prices triggering higher rates:
“Amusingly I read stories that higher oil prices will force the ECB to hike. No they won’t. For starters, supply shocks have nothing to do with inflation.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/arab-unrest-propels-iran-saudi-king.html
I think he’s looking at it from an american/european perspective, where borrowing/lending is decimated. Here in Canada, borrowing/lending is still rampant, hence we may see rates rise here while they remain low in US/EU.
@#57 wetcoaster
CLASSIC ! I though I was the only one left out here with a brain. Until I read your OZZIE nad Harriett(Michael) statement
You know what is great about these articles? When you read them, and are critical about what you read, you can draw your own conclusions.
I just skimmed it, and they say Alberta is the most affordable province in Canada because of declines since 2007. If I were a buyer, I would say “great, let me know when it stops declining.”
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Alberta+housing+affordability+best+Canada/4338572/story.html
I think everyone has taken your advice G… I have never seen so many houses listed in one day… (Toronto)
http://guava.ca/daily_map/20110224.html
Those asking about what to do with fixed rate vs variable etc…
I am in the same situation and am weighing my options. I have always been a big proponent of variable rates. But this time around I am feeling differently and likely going with a fixed rate.
Only unsolicited advice I would give, lock in your rate with a broker or a banker now (usually get 120 days) then you can take your time making your decision and watch where rates go in that time.
If rates are still the same, relock in your rate again for another 120 days and repeat until you have a clearer picture. If fixed rates go up in that 120 days you can still take your lower rate that was held.
OV Condo buyers beware
A lawyer warns that it is unclear who would be on the hook for any problems at the former Olympic Village, the CBC’s Eric Rankin reports
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/video…..79135.html
Free Press poll: Did you prepare for higher mortgage rites?
65%-No, 35%-Yes.
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/polls/Have-you-taken-steps-to-prepare-for-higher-mortgage-rates-89462972.html?viewResults=y
#123 Calagry Rocks…it just doesn’t make any business sense. In Calgary and edmonton, whatever property they bought wouldn’t move the market…they just couldn’t do it. And it small towns and villages where they could, there’s not enough illiquidity to ensure the flip….too much risk.
I’d say that rumours of his investing exploits are partlky the lies of a sheister, and partly the figment of the already-willing imaginations of his herd.
The Bankers are the real problem. They are the one responsible for the problems now and to come. And the world is getting it! And i love it!!
#116 mackie on 02.24.11 at 12:35 pm
…My point is twofold.
1) The original very nice and comfortable 1950s style homes in my neighbourhood are already valued at zero. It’s the land and the land only that has any value. If people think condos can only go up they are kidding themselves. Sooner or later they pretty much go to zero.
2) With all the expensive homes now surrounding me, my taxes are going sky high. My wife and I love the neighbourhood, the big yards, the deer in the backyard, the ravine that surrounds us. But we fear we will be forced out because of taxes. (we have no mortgage)”
***
You may be overassessed if you are surrounded by teardowns. Sign up on the MPAC website (http://www.mpac.ca/pages_english/products_services/aboutmyproperty.asp) and get the detailed breakdown of how your assessment is calcuated (i.e. how much is land value and how much is building value (based on s.f., building features like # and type of garages, pool, etc. )). You can then compare up to 100 houses in your neighbourhood to see what their breakdowns are. If yours looks out of whack, you might consider applying for a re-assessment or call one of those property reassessment companies who will do it for you for a fee).
Cause and Effect
The effect is overpriced and bubblelicious R.E.
What is the cause?
Green and Vlad are merely presenting their POV on the BIG PICTURE!
Way more valuable than one more doubledogwoofhead discussing the ramifications of their variable rate mortgage. I mean really, WGAS.
It’s all one doggies.
When a dog barks in Africa, you get bit in the ass!
#103 TBay Convert
Allot of what Don Campbell says in his book is outdated. For instance the 1.1 DCR rule is no longer used by any of the major banks (Firstline was the last to go). Using a Cover sheet to present to the banks with your finances doesn’t work either when purchasing an investment property – no amount of fluff will help if your finances don’t add up. That stuff may have worked prior to 2008, but not today.
Since some are all over the Public Union thing I thought I would stir the pot.
Some of the article below sounds just like Canada.
Cannot draw comparisons to Canada though, we are different…
The Emerald Isle’s story is a microcosm of the global economic crisis.
http://www.city-journal.org/2011/eon0223td.html
“During the boom, the government—under the direction of Ireland’s largest political party, Fianna Fáil, in power for most of the last 80 years and famous for its patronage network—increased public-sector employment by 25 percent and also the rate of remuneration. The average public-service wage rose from $39,000 a year in 1998 to $64,000 in 2008, with pensions following suit, in return for a pledge not to go on strike.”
http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/house.pdf
Obviously something is wrong with RBC’s affordability report. Winnipeg homes are higher by more than 150% in the last decade yet affordability hasn’t changed since 1996. Average income is stagnant and interest rates are the lowest ever. Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.
The average price in Manitoba is $254,200 and requires a salary of $60,500 to qualify. What’s the qualifying salary going to be when interest rates are 8%?
Homeowner Default Management Tools by CMHC
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/moloin/moloin_006.cfm#CP_JUMP_148321
Some of the tools that are available are:
* Converting a variable interest rate mortgage to a fixed interest rate mortgage in order to protect the borrower from a sudden interest rate increase, should one occur.
* Offering a temporary short-term payment deferral.
* Extending the original repayment period (amortization) in order to lower the monthly mortgage payments.
* Adding any missed payments (arrears) to the mortgage balance and spreading them over the remaining mortgage repayment period.
* Offering a special payment arrangement unique to the particular financial situation.
CMHC is also willing to consider other alternatives proposed by the lender to resolve or avoid mortgage payment default.
In other words do not expect a increase in foreclosures with these manipulation tools available. Lots of opportunities to create illusions.
People putting 0% or 5% down are laughing.
#45 Jesse on 02.24.11 at 1:16 am
You can collect 2% in a high interest savings with ALLY
or ING Direct has a GIC for 2.5 percent 1year. Don’t buy huge block. Buy many small blocks 1000 or 5000 dollars each. so if decide to move your money else where between the 1 year period, you don’t kill the entire GIC.
Stay liquid, cause if the Stock market corrects, you can also get in at a more optimistic time.
good luck
Tired of the Bubble on 02.24.11 at 12:39 pm
This week I finally hit my breaking point. Unlike many on the blog, I’ve been hoping for a mild correction to RE since many of my friends and family would get hammered by a shock. I tried long ago to convince them of the perils and was shot down and ridiculed so I now just keep my mouth shut
—————-
Very nice. A typical doomer on this “pathetic” blog.
Tired of the Bubble: I tried long ago to convince them of the perils and was shot down and ridiculed so I now just keep my mouth shut.
the trick is to maintain your convictions in the face of opposition and harder is to maintain your opposition in the face of ridicule
be wary of Soylent Green whos only outlet is this blog
I’d vote for Stephen Harper just to spite him
#56 AxeHead on 02.24.11 at 2:06 am
“according to local realtors the only houses selling are those under 300k ”
In Red Deer, reportedly, only the low end is moving. In Edmonton, this is the breakdown of sales in ~the last 6 months:
Price Range Number of Sales Percentage
of total sales
100,000 – 200,000 125 4%
201,000 – 300,000 687 24%
301,000 – 400,000 1227 43%
401,000 – 500,000 474 16%
501,000 – 600,000 165 6%
601,000 – 700,000 66 2%
701,000 – 800,000 39 1%
801,000 – 900,000 22 >1%
901,000 – 1,000,000 11 >1%
1,000,001 plus 16 >1%
The lion’s share of sales (67%) is in the $200k-400k range. 28% of sales have been for under $300k. The latter figure seems high, compared to the last 5-6 years. Can someone confirm this?
Source:
http://edmontonrealestateblog.com/2011/02/edmonton-real-estate-sales-stats-by-price-range.html
Glad I got out of the stock markets 2 weeks ago. Never bothers me to leave money on the table. Besides, I’m way to chicken to hang in for the last 10%.
#102 David on 02.24.11 at 10:24 am
Talk about putting lipstick on a pig…..
If one wanted to be just a tad cynical about the gruel we are being fed by a bunch of self-interestd, uber-promotional wankers
_____________________________
What’s needed is more people who
1. profit from pushing the negative side
2. profit from pushing a balanced view
3. non-profit motivated folk pushing a balanced view
unfortunately, only the RE pushers can afford to buy the media. Thank god for teh interwebz
Why be just a tad cynical? those orifices deserve all the cynicism regular folk can throw their way.
Crank it up dude. To 11 and beyond.
Excellent news for Hongcouver mortgage and home slaves…..especially for legions from Mainland China buying up White rock – http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Mount+Baker+eruption+overdue+expert/4337941/story.html
I shared this posting on FB, and a former colleague of mine had this to say,
“Wow… if I was ever unsure of how wrong Garth Turner is, I’m not now. He really needs to do his homework. BILLIONS of dollars of cashflowing homes owned my REIN MEMBERS (not just Don Campbell,) many whom I’ve met in person, are hugely successful people and have no regrets being members for many years (some, 10+ years) paying a mere pittance for thousands of dollars worth of statistics and research every month. I know engineers who pay higher professional dues and educational upgrades than REIN members do. They are absolute proof that there is a safe and smart way to invest in something we ALL need… and SOMEONE needs to provide… a roof over our heads.
I love how Garth also completely omits that ALL proceeds from Don’s books go to Habitat for Humanity along with very generous donations from REIN members (hundreds of thousands of dollars so far.) I’ve spoken to Habitat at REIN events… they can’t be happier with the support they receive from Don, and the hundreds of REIN members across Canada, who, if they’re just throwing their money away, how perchance can they dig deep into their pockets to donate to such a worthy cause?
I have just one question for Mr. Turner… if everyone decides to rent and not own property… to whom do we all rent from? Sorry Dawn, I can personally say that this article is absolute garbage. Fear-mongering garbage. I have shaken hands with people who own 100+ doors, started with nothing and are providing clean quality housing for hundreds of people, all while providing a good life for themselves, their family and giving back to the community. 99% of them are REIN MEMBERS (not staff), just like me, who don’t have books to sell, just the drive to make a real positive difference in this world. If fact, I had coffee with a fellow member yesterday. He has 9 doors and we talked about how we could easily throw together any old deal if we didn’t give a crap whether it was ethical or not, but doing it with integrity is worth it. It takes longer, and it’s more effort, but it’s worth it. Ugh.. I’m so disgusted at this “article” I could spit.”
Nice speech, and I’m happy if this person takes an ethical approach to collecting ‘doors.’ The reality is, the REIN approach is about building personal wealth, not social housing. So, spare me the sanctimony. And spit downwind. — Garth
#115 Jan Etter on 02.24.11 at 12:26 pm
Please tell me you’re being absurd just to rile up SGIP. I shudder to think what our forefathers who died in WWI and WWII for our democratic way of life would think of you using your vote to spite a blogger. Even if you don’t have much faith in the democratic process, you owe it to our forefathers to get informed on the issues, get involved and use your vote intelligently to support the candidate that reflects your vision of what this country should be.
……………………………………………………………………………
There are no Libertarians to vote for..
And, using my vote as I wish is as much about freedom and democracy as it can get. Even if the use of it is to rile up a blogger..
That said Id never vote NDP or Liberal anyways.. Im just more on the fence about the CPC… But now, with Soylent Greens constant barrage and reminders, I feel motivated and will do my democratic duty and vote.
What happened to all the crazies the other day talking about how wrong you are Garth? I bet they are sitting back in their chairs crunching some rudimentary numbers realizing all these facts and data pointing to an impending down turn actually make more sense than trying to deny the inevitable!
Mr. R.
“#139 new_era on 02.24.11 at 2:35 pm
You can collect 2% in a high interest savings with ALLY
or ING Direct has a GIC for 2.5 percent 1year. Don’t buy huge block. Buy many small blocks 1000 or 5000 dollars each. so if decide to move your money else where between the 1 year period, you don’t kill the entire GIC.
Stay liquid, cause if the Stock market corrects, you can also get in at a more optimistic time.”
Advising someone to put a large sum of money (or a bunch of small sums of money) into a vehicle that is actually losing money every second you hold it is hardly sage advice.
There are plenty of relatively low risk liquid investments that can yield you several times crap rates like 2% or 2.5%. Call me crazy, but I like it when my investments outperform inflation.
#45 Jesse, follow your own smart thought and find a worthy financial advisor. Run far, far away from anyone that suggests putting it in a “high interest” savings account or pathetic GIC.
#45 Jesse on 02.24.11 at 1:16 am
You can collect 2% in a high interest savings with ALLY
or ING Direct has a GIC for 2.5 percent 1year. Don’t buy huge block. Buy many small blocks 1000 or 5000 dollars each. so if decide to move your money else where between the 1 year period, you don’t kill the entire GIC.
Stay liquid, cause if the Stock market corrects, you can also get in at a more optimistic time.
good luck
============
After taxes and inflation, this is still a negative yield and not advisable.
It isn’t rocket science to put together a basket of preferred shares that can easily generate 4-6% whilst offering favourable dividend tax treatment.
#137 TS
IMHO…..it’s quite easily explained.
You either have a Gov’t that uses
(i)the civil service incarnation as military might …OR
(ii) its pseudo democracy manifested by an incarnation of an army of bureaucracy.
Either way, it boils down to a dictatorship, one more obvious than the other.
If the soldiers are well fed, thus a higher caste in society, the leader rules.
In non – military dictatorships, you keep the civil service “soldiers” not armed, but well compensated, thus this creates a buffer between the peasant voters and the elected dictatorship.
Create a law = create a job….they are only following orders..blah ,blah, blah….
Certain public sectors ie teachers and nurses unions have basically written the handbook of how to usurp democracy and have Gov’ts kissing their asses.
Global systemic crisis / World geopolitical breakup – End of 2011: Fall of the “Petro-dollar wall” and a major monetary-oil shock for the United States …
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-52-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-World-geopolitical-breakup-End-of-2011-Fall-of-the-Petro-dollar-wall-and_a5927.html
This is all about entitlement. — Garth
…i think it is about competancy/trust. Does Mr. Walker really work/speak for the majority?
His firing and then outsourcing private guards who seem to be even more incompetant, ended up costing the taxpayers more money….and (i had no idea one could drink vodka out of other parts of one’s body) Rebranding this company has not seem to help it’s reputation.
“It’s curious that the Kochs have apparently expanded their lobbying presence just as Walker was sworn into office and immediately before a budget was unveiled that would allow the executive branch unilateral power to sell off public utilities in this state in no-bid contracts,” says Lisa Graves, executive director of the Center for Media and Democracy.
And who knew Coolridge liked to ride a mechanical horse in his underwear!
Forget the housing sector the weapons are doing great!US 61% of market share
U.S. Companies Sold $247 Billion in Weapons Last Year –
#93Robert-Did those protestors turn out when trillions of dollars was given to the financial system? No-they were quite OK with it as long as they got theirs. Who is supposed to pay for all this? The answer is anyone in the USA private sector who isn’t connected. The probelm is the grifters have been so successful in their quest to suck out every penny that a very small % of the non-connected USA private sector is thriving-very small. It’s over.
#120Bill-Yes-the job you did was 20 times more dangerous than that of a cop, but if one of those guys sprains his ankle we hear about it until doomsday.
#108Ret-I am not big on Hamilton RE, but the place will NEVER be anything like Detroit-Detroit is literally a third world city.
So publish what you pay or Revenue transparency would be good for all markets . If the Uk adopts this wouldn’t this be okay for a tsx merger with uk, Garth?
The Publish What You Pay
http://www.publishwhatyoupay.org/en/resources/new-transparency-laws-could-help-millions-says-publish-what-you-pay
Revenue transparency legislation in the EU would build on the requirements in the US Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (July 2010) which requires all oil, mining and gas companies registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to report their payments to foreign governments on a country-by-country, and a project-by-project basis. It would also compliment the work of other multi-stakeholder transparency initiatives such as the global Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI) which brings together companies, governments and civil society to track those payments into national accounts.
Hong Kong has recently improved the disclosure of its companies’ payments as a condition of listing on its exchange too, so momentum is building towards a global consensus to improve revenue transparency across all major markets.
“Support from the UK Government is vital as the London Stock Exchange is one of the largest and most important financial markets in the world, where more than a trillion pounds worth of oil, gas and mining shares are listed”, said Gavin Hayman of Global Witness. “This announcement represents a major step forward in making sure that people in countries rich in natural resources reap the benefits. We would like to see similar legislation being adopted by other G20 members in the near future,” added Hayman.
From India Today
The G-20 has recognised that these tax havens are really bad for the global economy. Advanced industrial countries were focusing on the adverse effects tax havens have on their tax collection, but for emerging markets like India the problems are even worse. Because, typically, they need money for tax revenues even more and the tax havens are also often corruption havens, money that is touched in a way or another by illegality. It seems to me that there should be concerted pressure to close them down. They serve no socially useful function. They exist only to circumvent norms. They undermine good governance.
=======================
“discretionary Trusts”
A Leak in Paradise documentary about the swiss whistleblower banker
=
The mentioning of ads the other day for real estate check out this ad for “holistic banking” for the “tax brothels”
http://taxjustice.blogspot.com/2011/02/switzerlands-dirty-game-view-from.html
=====
Question for the b-dogs about Canada’s reserves.
The following link shows the official international reserves as the end of January, 2011:
http://www.fin.gc.ca/n11/11-012-eng.asp
It seems that it is just over $58 billion (USD).
Firstly, if that is the case, does it mean that the federal budget deficit of approximately $50 billion could be liquidated, if desired?
Secondly, the table at the bottom shows the historical composition of these reserves. Something worth mentioning is the rapid rise in gold and SDR reserves since 2008. Gold reserves have increased by roughly 50% while SDR reserves have risen nine-fold in the same period! Other currency-denominated reserves are reasonably constant over the same timeframe.
Now, why is that? Are the goldbugs up to something?
Too bad us mortals cannot buy SDRs…
Here is some comic relief from TD Bank-put pennies aside and you too can own the world-just give us you money and we can promise everyone a return of 6.8% over inflation for decades on end! Try to forget that the actual economy isn’t growing anywhere near this pace and everything will be just fine http://www.moneyville.ca/blog/post/943952–how-100-a-month-can-make-you-a-millionaire?bn=1
Crazy on 02.24.11 at 2:44 pm
Why the quotes on “pathetic”? Anyway, I’m not a doomer, just bearish on real estate. Oh, wait that’s right, any bearish “views” on “real estate” labels “you” as a “doomer” these “days”.
#135 Chaos — Nicely pointed out! I’m contemplating starting my own piece of junk so I don’t have to bother others here.
I have Nostradamus Jr., Bill (Peterborough), Devil’s Advocate, Old is Gold and Mike the Engineer’s e-mail addys, and somehow, you and I can get in touch.
Stay well!
To: #147 Dawn in Calgary on 02.24.11 at 3:44 pm
CRA just waiting to pounce on all that wealth that went unreported and those expenses that were manipulated.
Coming to a REIN neighbourhood real soon.
#108 Ret –
Hamilton is not even close to Detroit and will never be.
To:#159 Two-thirds on 02.24.11 at 5:39 pm
The SDR is neither a currency, nor a claim on the IMF. Rather, it is a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of IMF members. Holders of SDRs can obtain these currencies in exchange for their SDRs in two ways: first, through the arrangement of voluntary exchanges between members; and second, by the IMF designating members with strong external positions to purchase SDRs from members with weak external positions. In addition to its role as a supplementary reserve asset, the SDR, serves as the unit of account of the IMF and some other international organizations.
Off topi, but…
Does anyone else watch the financial expert panel that the CBC National news puts together every once in a while? It includes Patricia Croft (who I really respect) and Jim Stanford (who I do not). Amanda Lang and another guy who I can’t recall rounded out the group.
Anyway, the latest gathering of this group was about 2 weeks ago, and the topic was the raging debate about TFSAs versus RRSPs. The reason it is a raging debate is because many Canadians are only now realizing that they have to pay tax on RRSP withdrawls (!). The only reason they know that is because of the standard sales pitch for the newly-invented TFSA, which is tax-free (TF…duh).
Anyway, the panel was asked in closing: What should a Canadian do if they had $1000, a totally generic figure, simply used to frame the question, tyo invest: TFSA, RRSP, or somethng else?
Everyone gave the standard answers, most of them pretty good….I won’t bore you.
But what does Jim Stanford, Economist with the CAW, suggest? He says that $1000 isn’t going to do anyone any good in retirement at all, that they should just “go and have a nice dinner out”. He basically dismoissed the entire priciple of compounding, and implicitly endorsed gambling and lotteries as a sutiably instantaneous retirement strategy.
I kid you not. It was surreal. I think I saw Patti Croft wince.
But that, my friends, is the kind of brain power that our union ilk have at their disposal. No wonder.
” Off topic, but I’m looking for some advice.
My husband and I sold a property not long ago, and after paying down the mortgage on our present house, we are currently sitting on about 100K that we would like to invest. I’ve become wary of our present financial advisor who inevitably suggests Fidelity mutual funds and says ETFs are “risky” and “not around long enough to really know.” Any suggestions regarding a financial advisor in or near to either Calgary, Alta., or Cranbrooke, BC (both places we visit frequently – we live somewhere between)?”
put $20,000 in these 5 stocks and earn over 5% in dividends (plus increases in most of these picks every year). No EFT or mutual fund fees, and all top quality picks that those most funds will hold anyway
BCE
Brookfield Renewable Energy
Sunlife
Crescent Point Energy
Inter Pipeline
or
Enbridge
Transcanada
Telus
Power Financials
Pembina Pipelines
you get the picture
#49 Vlad, etc…
BE A TOURIST IN YOUR OWN TOWN!
Couldn’t have put it better myself. Summing up your post goes something like this: “Welcome to History’s Magical Mystery Tour…Over on the right you can see…”
Well, what do we see?
We see what happens when the royal glue that holds an empire together loses its stickiness, starts drying out then cracks (always along key fault-lines) with the usual awful results. (See: Fall of Roman Empire, Collapse of USSR, OR if so inclined, the Book of Revelations).
HEART OF THE EMPIRE
The seat of this particular, and particularly sick, empire is the corridor between the banking district in New York City and Washington DC.
This is where thousands of apparently well-educated bankers, stock brokers, economists, forecasters, government “officials” and various elected politicians and unelected political hacks abound. And we mustn’t forget the left-wing media trolls, either! Good on you!
All get their pay cheques “on time and on someone else’s budget.”
OUR ITINERARY AND OTHER BITS
Those folks (our Betters) also dwell in the First Class lifeboats section of this economic Titanic in which we are all travelling on this non-optional “history/mystery tour”.
Please note ALSO that this trip is NOT taking us to an “End of Times” destination. We’re just going to a “Different-Times-From-Now-On” destination that some will wish really WAS the end of times.
Its features will include: collapsed currencies, debt defaults, stock market routs, shattered dreams, real estate boffins selling pencils on street corners, and unknown-to-the-upside energy prices, the latter of which will cause most of these just-mentioned events.
IT’S A MUG’S GAME
I could be wrong about all of the above, of course, in which case I’ll just say that forecasting is a mug’s game and that we NOW have a NEW SET of mugs to blame! Of course we do!
So, who are these new players? They include restive young men packing AK-47s on the Egypt/Libya border. They’re busy escorting the foreign press to Tobruk to catch the action; putative protestors lining up action for the middle of next month in Saudi Arabia; Iran sending warships to The Med; Turkey cutting off water supplies to Israel (go to the Muslim Brotherhood Website. It’s true!); 11 per cent collapse of new US housing sales in the US.
Meanwhile, back in Libya and the venerable city of Tripoli; thousands of panicky western tourists and oil company ex-pats are desperately seeking a way out of this awful tribal civil war.
And in the capitals of Europe panic has set in. Why? What if, following those tourists, millions of North Africans also suddenly decide to land on the beaches of Monte Carlo, Costa del Sol, Capri?
As we try to figure out the next step, or stop, on our history/mystery tour, a thank you to our sponsor is in order. Just trying to be polite, is all:
Thanks a lot Big Ben Bernanke and your DC currency-degrading printing presses, Democrat-controlled administration and Senate
(and your government-coddled employees and their union donations at election times), and, generally (no pun here) the US military-industrial complex in all of your limitless permutations and obligations and costs.
Thou all have wrought a whirlwind. Some genie, some bottle; where to now?!
L->R 0 beers, 3 beers, 6 beers, 9 beers, 12 beers…
I don’t like the one your getting Garth….:)
Garth It is unclear to me how CMHC insurance works
I know its suppose to protect against mortgage defaults but
What does happens if real estate takes a drop and a person is no longer able to make payments. And the
the real estate asset is worth less the person’s net worth?
What happens during a foreclosure. Is that person still on the hook for the cash or will CHMC insurance take care of it?
http://www.lss.bc.ca/assets/pubs/cantPayYourMortgage.pdf
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/moloin/index.cfm
#165SAD-Classic-“supplementary reserve ASSET”-created out of thin air a la the big guy’s wine from water trick. We are fast approaching the point where the lack of real wealth underpinning all these scams is becoming very apparent.
#168 Moloko
Very good choices there, especially Pembina, IPL, Crescent Point, I own those too. How can you lose leveraging off oil ? And the dividends are so juicy…..
Hi Sybil.
How’s your day going?
#166 Gordeaux
I agree with Gord
#96 and #51 – the Halifax Chronicle Herald had an interesting article today about the exclusion of energy and food in the consumer price index: http://www.thechronicleherald.ca/Business/1229736.html .
CrowdedElevatorFartz,
I forgot the part about Campbell’s lack of track record. His famous cult yodel is ” I told people here on this show three years ago, 5 years ago, etc etc” ad nauseasm, yet there is never any proof he ever said it. The worst kind of cultist is the ones that have no track record other than their own big mouth.
The Ozzie side of the cult rant keeps saying “there’s always a right deal somewhere”. Yeah, Detroit in the winter time with an Uzi , a Glock and a bullet proof vest.
#45 Jesse on 02.24.11 at 1:16 am
You can collect 2% in a high interest savings with ALLY
or ING Direct has a GIC for 2.5 percent 1year. Don’t buy huge block. Buy many small blocks 1000 or 5000 dollars each. so if decide to move your money else where between the 1 year period, you don’t kill the entire GIC.
Stay liquid, cause if the Stock market corrects, you can also get in at a more optimistic time.
good luck
============
After taxes and inflation, this is still a negative yield and not advisable.
It isn’t rocket science to put together a basket of preferred shares that can easily generate 4-6% whilst offering favourable dividend tax treatment.
_____________________________________________
Victor I agree that that the preferred shares clearly offer the better return & tax treatment, but what if you may need the cash on short notice to take advantage of another opportunity (like the coming housing correction?) And what if the stock market (which is equally overvalued now due to QE) has it’s own correction? In this case your preferred shares may still kick out their 4 to 6% return but your stock may have lost a lot of value, and if you want to liquidate your holdings to buy say real estate, your hands are tied because the stock would have to be sold at a loss. IMHO the preferreds only work well if there is a long term hold and no need or desire to liquidate the shares in the short term . . .
Preferreds are totally liquid and can be converted into cash within three days. Share prices are vastly more stable than common shares and will not lose ‘a lot’ of value unless interest rates unexpectedly spike. Highly unlikely. Current yields on major bank preferreds (the bluest of blue chips) are about 5.5% – payable in dividends, which equates to a 6.5% GIC. What’s not to love? — Garth
Good mortgage rate info from all and thanks.
Just learned that one of our neighbours (we live in the country on large acreage properties) has a $425K mortgage and they live on a substitute teachers wages and the husband is involved in a training course since he lost his job in the auto parts industry.
The other neighbour has a $550K mortgage and is paying 7% above prime on their mortg. Both houses were purchased 5 years ago for $550K and $500K and both did extensive upgrades that cost a bundle.
Those are major monthly mortgage payments – esp the $550K at 10% = $5K on a 35 year mortgage. I don’t know how folks manage. Just operating a home is so expensive with property taxes, insurances, etc.
These folks seem pretty broke, always sticking around watching TV. No one appears to be saving for retirement or even towards their kids’ RESPs.
Is Toronto the Dubai of North America?
Some 18,000 new condominium units were completed in the Greater Toronto Area last year, according to the market research firm Urbanation. Another 17,000 will pop up this year, and 20,000 will rise next year—meaning Toronto will have more condo units for sale than any other city on the continent.
http://www.eyeweekly.com/city/features/article/110926
#120 bill
Classic case of divide and rule. Why aren’t you raving about Jamie Dimon who makes 25 million+ doing f-all?
The more that ordinary workers in the public sector earn, the higher the wages in the private sector will be (that’s a little thing called competition for labour).
Conversely downward pressure on wages in the public sector will result in lower private sector wages. I.e. the monied classes get to keep more and everyone else has to do with less.
Correction to post #159 Two-thirds on 02.24.11 at 5:39 pm
Rhetorical question should read:
“Are the goldbugs on to something?”
We are all up to something, apologies for the typo.
#169 VICTORIA TEA PARTY — Hi VTP. A typo, which several make — it is actually The Book of Revelation by St. John of the Cross, in the singular, not the plural.
St. John only had one revelation, and this was it. The majority of visions or dreams only come from the lower psychic regions, not the higher pure spiritual ones.
“They include restive young men packing AK-47s on the Egypt/Libya border.”
That is the crux of the problem — young people who don’t have much to look forward to, have nothing to lose one way or the other, and obviously couldn’t care less what happens — all they want is change, and who can blame them?
As far as time runs, there are about 420K – 425K years left in this particular cycle, before the age runs its course.
We still enjoy Victoria, but haven’t been there in a few years. Grossly overpriced last time I looked.
Cheers!
Facebook used to be about keeping in touch with your friends and family.
Now it’s all about spamming them with links and advertising that nobody cares about.
Hello Garth: I was wondering if you reccomend any newsletters?
The Squirrel Letter. — Garth
#180 Behavioral Finance on 02.24.11 at 8:03 pm
Is Toronto the Dubai of North America?
Some 18,000 new condominium units were completed in the Greater Toronto Area last year, according to the market research firm Urbanation. Another 17,000 will pop up this year, and 20,000 will rise next year—meaning Toronto will have more condo units for sale than any other city on the continent.
==================================
Actually……
If one does a circuitous fi$cal bio – feedback loop ….. Local Gov’t could care less about oversupply.
Inherently the Feds have let loose the CMHC as a default funding mechanism to Local Gov’ts ( after all other downloadings and clawbacks )
Local Gov’ts have simply allowed for OCP’s which allow for Hi Density..under the civic revenue math that Hi-Density is directly proportional to civic revenue, at minimum via ” highest and best use ” designation..hence taxation.
Metro Vancouver is undergoing the same BS.
One critic stated that City of Vancouver already has existing zoning capacity for 20,000 units…thus why is it engaging in a 30 year Metro Van plan ????
At minimum, $$$ created out of thin air…..oR empty condos that are still obligated to pay annual property taxes.
Follow the money……
#155 BrianT
The following applies to the US; Canada so far seems to have tamer elites and so we haven’t seen the carnage here yet.
By and large it was ordinary people who protested over the socialized losses and subsequent zero interest money the Feds have provided for the well-connected banksters. Remember, the elites, through various off-shoring methods, pay little tax, so it is left to the taxpayers (the other 90%) to pay for Wall Street bonuses and watch as the Fed devalues their money day after day handing out free money to the banksters.
Now you blame ordinary public sector workers because they are trying to hold onto things they bargained for fairly? You should be JOINING them by going after the financial terrorists and demanding that they pay their fair share so that the vast majority of Americans can live decently. If there were effective rule of law in the US, there would be hundreds of bankers in jail by now.
There are 45 million people on food stamps in the US and the underemplyment rate is between 17% officially and 22% according to ShadowStats.
If I was a non-monied US citizen I would be seething after what has happened the past 30 months. I would seriously be contemplating violence. It is out and out class warfare in the US – choose you side.
#121 Soylent Green………………you’re losing it aren’t you? Like, an actual breakdown of some type?
Your obsession with Harper is getting as bit disturbing, and you are becoming a laughing-stock, as DA did with his antics.
Got laid off today.
Sure glad I sold my house.
Sad news. We are here for you. — Garth
At the ground level, real estate agents in Alberta have definitely noticed prices coming down, which of course makes it a great time to buy in their eyes.
Mike Leibel, a realtor in Calgary, said there’s been a glut of foreclosures, creating a market of low prices.
“I’m amazed at how far the prices have come down,” he said.
http://www.financialpost.com/news/Alberta+home+cheap+housing/4342377/story.html
===========
Appears, it’s a great time to buy when prices are going through the roof AND a great time to buy when prices come crashing down.
Was talking to my mother today. She was telling me that with all this inflation she’s positive that housing prices are going to rise.
I tried to explain to her that hard assets are more likely to deflate but she wouldn’t listen.
“Look at New York!” She said “Their housing prices didn’t drop at all”
“But mom, Toronto is hardly New York”
“No Toronto is still one of the most affordable cities in North America. Plus our house is by a Go Station!” (she lives across from Rouge Hill Station in West Hill).
My parents are the first wave of boomers that are hitting retirement age. I’ve been trying to convince them to sell now while their house still has 150k of equity in it (if not for the insane rise of housing prices they would have 0 equity) … but they aren’t listening.
“You gotta have somewhere to live!” they say.
They refuse to see that housing prices could potentially drop no matter how much logic I throw at them. =(
Thanks Moloko for your suggestions. I will look into these. My husband and I don’t have a self directed account. It’s something we need to learn how to do. An advisor has seemed the best solution for us to date, as we have limited knowledge and time. I’m working on educating myself. This blog is helping.
105 – The American…
Are you shitting me? I double checked your statistics, and you are accurate. With that said, that means Toronto is totally screwed. There is no justification, including immigration, that can make up for that kind of gap in Toronto. You’re talking NYC has half the inventory, but it is well over three times larger in population?!??! Can you tell me the health of the NYC area real estate market? Can you also tell me where you got your stats you provided on NYC?
Sad news. We are here for you. — Garth
Thanks Garth. In all fairness I knew what I was getting into when I took this position 6 months ago as a self employed “Consultant” at the company. Maybe I should have known better but they were paying really well at the time and I was desperate as I had a mortgage to pay.
Contract was supposed to run until the end of March at which time they would decide to renew or not …. imagine my surprise when I walked into a meeting with my manager to see HR sitting in there. The first thing I said was “I guess today’s my last day eh?”
C’est la vie, let go on good terms with good references.
Thankfully I also still have 3 or so months left of EI from a previous claim plus I’ll be liquid when the house closes in April (thanks again Garth).
Also on the bright side I found out yesterday that our offer to lease was accepted at the downtown condo on Spadina.
It’s funny how life is sometimes, with it’s ups and downs. One thing though I know for sure … I would have been SCREWED if I had not sold when I did.
Now my biggest worry is about finding work downtown and I’m liquid enough to be able to ride things out no matter what happens.
If I had not have sold though I would have been in a precarious situation. So things worked out for the best …
@ #139 SAD
-Longer amortization schedules?
-Special payment arrangements unique to the particular financial situation?
They’ve just created a way to backdoor “F’s” changes to longer term mortgages. But it will only available if you “can’t” make your payments.
So for every dufus who bought more house than they can actually afford, they’ll get longer terms with lower payments, and they’ll be “milked” that much more.
The only ones laughing will be the banks. They’ll make a killing.
Might be a good reason to buy preferred bank shares by the truckload. lol
#167 David
“… the kind of brain power that our union ilk have at their disposal. No wonder.”
What might be the point of that brilliant statement, besides wingnut union bashing, of course? Maybe Stanford was the only member of the panel who has to face the $1,000 question as a matter of routine vice being paid for growing large individual or pooled accounts.
For instance, how many years of compounding at 1 to 2% a year would it take to “compound” those $1,000 into a meaningful retirement nest egg? Try the Rule of 72, and do say how much of a factor a doubled sum of $2,000 would be in a long retirement. Alternatively, what Pfds, ETFs etc. could you get with $1,000 that would turn that sum into comfortable retirement, even assuming it was surplus and available every year?
Don’t you know that becoming rich is easy? Just start off with lots of money. But don’t forget that there are many wage earners – public and private – to whom a free $1K would be a luxury both now and in retirement.
You people disgust me..
First everybody slags Tiger Woods for minor indiscretions that tarnished his faux public image.
Now….Charlie Sheen….who has ONLY had orders of magnitude 2nd chances, has had his show 2.5 men suspended for the remainder of the season.
Have you people no mercy…no souls….
( Moammar subbing in for Chuck may be good ?!? )
#195 Carlyle on 02.24.11 at 9:55 pm
Happened to me more than once.When a door closes another will open. Do not let your pride close it. Wonderful things happen when you least expect it. Most of my fears were illusions. I remember someone once telling me if you want a 40 hour a week job you best work at finding one 40 hours a week. I hated him but he was right.
#81 Tim on 02.24.11 at 8:09 am
“…
Hyper-inflation is a political act, not an economic consequence. Did you know that? It will never happen in North America. — Garth”
Regardless that I agree with you Garth about root of hyper-inflation but I disagree that will not happened here.
http://myreinspace.com/public_forums1/f/62/t/20689.aspx
LOL, we are “mindless followers” and Garth, beware as you “might” be engaging in libel against REIN.
Ironically, i visit those forums from time to time just for a laugh.
Hey Carlyle,
Sorry to hear about your layoff, but VERY happy for you that you already had your ducks in a row.
At #194: V Brad, I’m happy to give you the sources. These are common links:
The stats for current inventory in New York City are found here. Of course, these will change daily as inventory raises and lowers.
http://www.trulia.com/NY/New_York/ (appears inventory has come down even more since I posted this morning)
The population stats were found in the following two links.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_york_city
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto
As for the health of Manhattan real estate, prices came down there too, of course, but not by much. Inventory to pending sales & closed sales is very healthy, if not ideal. I hope this helps. Average prices in Manhattan right now are: 1 bedroom is $745,000, 2 bedroom is $1,500,000, 3 bedroom is $3,000,000, 4 bedroom is $5,400,000. Let me know what else I can do.
120 Bill
You wrote:
111 Kaganovich on 02.24.11 at 11:48 am
yeah so the non union folks should shut up and pay their taxes so the ones in government unions get to live comfortably?
I think we adjust the wages to fit the present reality.
I think teachers and firemen are overpaid.
Firemen especially.
I worked for 21 years in a sawmill and we never got anything like the benefits of those guys.[on the job bbq’s!?!]
and ,of course our job was way, way more dangerous.
we lost 50 t0 120 men a year for the 21 years I worked.
how many firemen died on the job in that time.?
———————————————
Your concerns are entirely justified, not to mention your point about being in a highly dangerous and underpaid line of work for a large part of your working life. I think that you are aiming at the wrong targets though. Much Like R. Dudek has written, your legitimate rage should be directed at the monied elites at work in the political lobby industry along with the demos despising politicos who ‘manage’ us common folk.
When you write “I think we adjust the wages to fit the present reality.
I think teachers and firemen are overpaid.”, a couple of things come to mind. First, if you are frustrated by the rates of pay garnered by some civil servants, you would really be riled by the amounts of remuneration paid to those in the FIRE industry after having a hand in almost crashing our economy and then convincing our political representatives to bail them out. Perhaps their pay should have been adjusted to fit our present reality, no? The present reality we are dealing with has been created in large part by this dyad, and that too must be recognized before any constructive political initiatives can be pursued. So if you mean that I was somehow condoning the idea of non-union, lowly paid workers footing the bill for what has gone down during the GFC, you are misinterpreting my message. However, if what you mean is that those pesky non union rich folks take their fair share of the blame and burden for the GFC, then you and I are on the same wavelength, but I don’t think that is the case. Like Dudek has clearly pointed out, there are the Many (that’s us), and then there are the Few (that’s the political/corporate elite, wealthy and powerful). Why is it that such a high number of the Many side with the few against their own interests? Perhaps the Koch brothers have that figured out better than anyone else does!
#201 Kitchener1
The person that started that thread has been lurking around here using numerous identities for quite a while. It’s fast Jimmy. In the “website” link he provided the first few times he posted here, he was selling his own lamn get rich seminars. Jimmy is a big wheeler dealer trader. Jimmy is into Fossil and other department store watch company shares.
Bad Jimmy!
197 Herb – I saw that segment and agree with David that the CAW has a loser with Stanford. He reps some of the highest paid workers with a great pension and was basically saying the govt should double CCP. Not
constructive at all.
The boys at REIN are at it again:
http://myreinspace.com/public_forums1/f/62/p/20689/102980.aspx#102980
I’m glad that you changed the original picture, Garth. It was appropriate but potentially hurtful. The new picture makes the point just as well. As a bonus some of the comments on the picture are now much funnier than they were…
Carlyle – congrats on getting liquid before getting laid off — and on getting out at the peak. Layoffs suck, but you’ve made the best of the situation. Well played, sir.
177 wetcoaster on 02.24.11 at 7:45 pm
CrowdedElevatorFartz,
I forgot the part about Campbell’s lack of track record. His famous cult yodel is ” I told people here on this show three years ago, 5 years ago, etc etc” ad nauseasm, yet there is never any proof he ever said it. The worst kind of cultist is the ones that have no track record other than their own big mouth.
**************************************
Wow, this page has been very….illuminating. Mostly as to how people like to talk trash about others, with very little factual information to base their opinions on.
To start, I’ll mention that I am a REIN member, that I have been for years, and that I’m happy being one. Some people here will no doubt either crucify me or ignore me for that reason alone, but I’m sure the more objective members here will be able to look at both sides fairly.
The one thing I logged on to say, though, is that this poster clearly is misinformed. Every single monthly meeting at REIN has been recorded, as those CDs are then sent out to people who missed that meeting – just part of our membership benefits. So, it’s actually incredibly easy to refer back to those years to get that proof, and verify that Don said what he stated he had said. About a year ago, I was curious as to that very topic, so I went back to my old CDs, and sure enough, he had accurately predicted those things years before.
As a matter of fact, one of the things I like about REIN is that in January, Don traditionally refers back to his predictions the previous January and scores himself on his accuracy, and then makes predictions for the coming year. His willingness to do that definitely raises himself in my esteem for him, especially when combined with his accuracy. Of course, he doesn’t get them all perfect, but he does get most of them, and he owns up to the ones he didn’t.
Now, I’m honestly not sure if Mr. Turner does the same himself…. is there a link someone can send me to show me where Mr. Turner has done the same thing with these predictions, and how offbase they were?
http://stockbullz.com/What-Garth-Turner-Wrote-In-1999
Have a good one, all!
Hyperinflation will happen in America when all those dollars foreigners have collected come home to roost. Plus the federal reserve in creating tons of money out of thin air. That is inflation, and if they do not stop – HYPERINFLATION!
No. Never. You do not know what hyper-inflation is. — Garth
#47 wes_coast : No, quite the opposite. We’re critical thinkers and realists basing our education on factual data. These characteristics qualify us as individualists, the opposite of a cult mentality.
#206 Dark….Herb is the embodiment of exactly my point…People who listen to Stanford become equally as stupid.
Don’t save little bits of money…wait until you are handed a much bigger pile, THEN save it! Just watch how much richer you’ll become by waiting until you’re made almost rich to start! Bequeathments, lotto winnings, lawsuit settlements….it’s all good!
Kaganovich
we used to have paid up and paid for communists in the rank and file at my mill that rambled on and on with the same line you have.
damn near word for word. funny how they all vanished when the money stopped coming from russia.
watching the class warfare between the maoists and the marxist Leninist competing for attention at our mill was one of the humorous aspects of a dangerous job.
the maoists were particularly obtuse.
once when the m/l were organizing the fieldworkers in the valley the maoists would disrupt the meetings and beat on various members of the opposite cult. nice guys just thinking of the worker eh?
e.a. blair nailed the process exactly in his book ‘animal farm’. however it applies to all forms of government, not just the hierarchy of the communists in spain and russia ect.
I am not missing your message. ok?
you dont have one.
Finally one of the columnists on the Castanet site in Kelowna has some similar views to Garth’s. Check it out:
http://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-60319-1013-.htm#60319
#32 DEXTER
Skymager = A
Skymager’s wife = B
B’s brother = C
C’s wife = D
So D is not equal to B…got it??
now try with E,F,G,H