The sure thing

Trevor and a buddy plan to buy a house in an Ontario university town and get rich. Trev’s in school. Bud works. They figure on spending $250,000 with 5% down and a 35-year mortgage before they vanish in three weeks.

“We know Canadian housing is a ticking time bomb,” says Trev, “but we don’t care.” In fact they have it all figured out…

“Locking in at historic low rates is everything.  As inflation heats up, our debt is serviced with cheaper money.  As long as the gov throws interest free loans at students we will always have 3 other babes to share the house with us.  If the value of the house drops 10%, who cares?  Our mortgage will be a whopping 1k a month and we’ll be generating over 2k.  Worst case scenario we are on the hook for 500 each if we can’t rent it out; exactly what we would be paying otherwise in rent.  Rinse and repeat as long as politicians are dumb enough to keep underwriting our loans.

“The boys are gunna get rich!”

Well, that sounds simple. Indeed, mortgage payments on $245,000 (the purchase price less 5% plus CMHC insurance) would be about $1,000 a month at 3% with a 35-year amortization. Of course with insurance and property tax, plus utilities and a backhoe to clean the living areas up every few months, it would pump that higher.

But, you know, the young hormones have a point. And it goes to the heart of why real estate is a doomed asset class.

Here you’ve got two guys, only one employed, with about $12,000 between them. With that amount of money – just a bit more than David Beckham paid for a hooker (but a real good one) – they can secure traditional bank financing and buy a $250,000 property. With ridiculous mortgage rates and amortizations lasting half a lifetime, they can carry the place for less than they’d pay in rent. How can they lose?

Well easy, actually. But that’s not my point. These two mini-Trumps would have $245,000 in debt, and after making five years of payments ($56,572, plus other costs), they would still owe about $225,000. In other words, interest payments alone would be $35,220 – the money it costs to rent a pile of money.

That means if real estate tanks 20% and the house is valued at $200,000, the geniuses have to keep it and pay a mortgage worth more than the property, or sell it and come up with a cheque on closing day for $35,000. So after five years they would have received $120,000 in income, and spent $104,072, or about $118,000 with property taxes and insurance, for a profit of $1,000 each.

Or, the market could lose 25%. Or they could run out of tenants. Or that 3% VRM could swell to 5%. Or the roof could quit.

The point is that most first-time homebuyers – who form the fuel for the real estate inferno – think about carrying costs, not consequences. Debt is an unrepayable abstraction. The point is never to actually stop owing money, just to start owning stuff.

It’s an identical attitude to that which propelled the US housing market to bubblicious heights, as people ignored the fact teaser rates would inevitably increase, home values would correct or cheap money masked the size of the obligation they were swallowing. In Canada this time around, rock-bottom loan costs, reckless lenders, irresponsible down payment requirements and too-long amortizations have done the job of American subprimes.

So, guys like Trev figure a grand a month gets him a house. And when was the last time in his short, untroubled life that real estate ever went down?

Lately I’ve shared with you the efforts of realtors and mortgage brokers to egg on young innocents like this. As the March 18th deadline looms for the end of 35-year loans (shortened to a still-too-long thirty years), the Trevors of this world are being told they have to borrow and spend now. The flyer below, sent out as a massive email blast, is a good example. Buy immediately, it says, and “save up to $200 a month in mortgage payments,” avoid finding “an additional $35,000” and “be able to afford $28,000-$63,000 more home.”

Of course, it’s a trap. Once the new rules kick in, the fact fewer virgins will be able to buy means reduced demand, lower prices and less debt. By accelerating a buying decision, these kids will pay more, owe more and own less once sales tumble. It’s a cruel joke everyone in the real estate industry knows, and yet nobody (to my knowledge) has had the integrity to mouth.

Like I said. Babe magnet Trev is right.

“We know Canadian housing is a ticking time bomb, but we don’t care.”

273 comments ↓

#1 first on 02.18.11 at 10:24 pm

first

#2 randman on 02.18.11 at 10:31 pm

First..maybe?

#3 Matt on 02.18.11 at 10:44 pm

I think they have a typo in their name, someone with fat fingers pressed the n twice by accident, and since it is on all the business cards, they kept the name. Oni – Japanese folklore, demons, devils, ogres or trolls.

#4 Edmontonian Guy on 02.18.11 at 10:50 pm

A greater fool(s) indeed! Here in parts of Edmonton houses/condos are selling for almost 25% or $100,000+ LESS than summer 2007. ANd try to get a job over $12 an hour in the Edmonton Area. It’s tough!
The beguinning of a “price correction” has began. Hopefully it won’t wipe out the middle class like in the US since we;ve had a similar bubble here, and it looks like its about to “burst”!

#5 reality guy on 02.18.11 at 10:52 pm

I actually like the thought of these dumbazz kids going into debt for the rest of their lives.

Then they will be on wealthfare for the rest of their sorry lives

#6 radio free OJ on 02.18.11 at 10:58 pm

this is the equivalent of the shoe shine boy giving stock tips. these dip$hits have no business being landlords, but once you have guys like this jumping into a market, you know you are well into bubble territory and the end is nigh. too bad CMHC (capitalized by our tax dollars )will be coming to the rescue of the lenders who set these guys up.

#7 Jon B on 02.18.11 at 11:01 pm

Was honesty and integrity ever a hallmark among those in the real estate business?

#8 martin on 02.18.11 at 11:12 pm

GREAT !!!

#9 LHHW on 02.18.11 at 11:13 pm

Spoke to a realtor friend of mine yesterday. He didn’t even know that the feds eliminated the 35 year amortization!!

I wrote down this quote a while back, but I don’t know who said it…Garth, maybe it was you : )

“If it wasn’t for greed and stupidity the real estate market would be very uninteresting.”

#10 Mike on 02.18.11 at 11:14 pm

What will we talk about in 2 weeks when the 35 year amo is history ???

#11 Captain Jack on 02.18.11 at 11:15 pm

The RE industry disgusts me…same thing with the banks.

#12 stepenharping on 02.18.11 at 11:16 pm

fifth;)

#13 gta Girl on 02.18.11 at 11:16 pm

I’m sending this to all the idiots in my life. Posting to my fb. With recent TOLife profile of 23yrold discount travel agent staff buying a $670,000 Toronto row house, with $15,000 down from her mom (who runs a home daycare)… I’m thinking people need a kick in the throat. Thankyou Garth. Ps: idiot 23yrold also renovated her kitchen. Granite?

#14 Devore on 02.18.11 at 11:16 pm

Just say no to the monthly payment trap. Look at the big picture.

#15 Devore on 02.18.11 at 11:19 pm

#5 radio free OJ

too bad CMHC (capitalized by our tax dollars )will be coming to the rescue of the lenders who set these guys up.

CMHC is capitalized by CMHC insurance premiums.

#16 Canayjun on 02.18.11 at 11:22 pm

I really think there must be some kind of brain rot disease going around. Can people really be that stupid? Particularly in BC?

Olympic Village prices reduced by 30% to 50%, but it’s not going to impact surrounding condo prices, because these condos were priced 30% to 50% higher than comparable surrounding condos to begin with.

Did they really think no one would notice ads for people to stand in line? Really?

Now some of the Olympic Village buyers from 2010 want to sue, because they paid too much for their condos.

I really hope this is merely just massive, widespread stupidity and not some kind of brain rot disease. I’m ashamed of my province.

#17 Mikey the Realtor on 02.18.11 at 11:31 pm

It sounds like Trev and bud got the idea, can’t go wrong with RE in a Uni town, especially if you are also living there. Good choice lads, don’t let the pups drag you down too much over the weekend.

#18 Nukeit on 02.18.11 at 11:44 pm

why stop at one house. buy 20 and net 20k per month. pay some college friends to manage them for 40k and keep 200k large while full time at school. after four years of higher education sell the lot and net a million. take a year off visit asia africa europe come back home attend grad school and do it again. its so easy to get rich. once grad school finishes use your smarts to make millions more on bay street retire at 30 with millions more and a life you can now devote to saving the planet. real estate and cheap money makes it so easy to be rich.

#19 linguinee on 02.18.11 at 11:46 pm

There’s the ghost of Orwell lurking behind the language of Onni.com’s email blast. Increased Cost of Same Home? What tripe.

The house cost is what it is; everything concerns of the cost of the borrowed mortgage money, and by putting more down and paying it off sooner (apres March 18 vs. 5/35 debt) the true cost of owning outright the house actually decreases.

Of course that’s assuming the prospective buyer really intends on eventually paying his debt. If not then both Onni’s email blast and the Ponzi scheme that is our current unreal estate farce makes perfect sense.

#20 Mr. Lee on 02.18.11 at 11:46 pm

Mr. Turner used the word integrity. Substitute that with short term self interest on behalf of home builders, banks, Realestate Boards et al. Anyone with two eyes in their meager head’s knows to avoid what the heard runs too. The heard is running and will be eaten the predator known as reality.

This housing market is propelled by psychology and nothing else. No fundamentals just manipulation on behalf of greeder self interest. Interest rates will rise, as will inflation on day to day items (aka non core inflation) while house prices will correct. This is a fact that too many chose to ignore at their own risk.

Cheers

#21 squidly77 on 02.18.11 at 11:47 pm

How’s that Calgary spec condo working out for ya !

ONE BEDROOMS STARTING FROM $125,900
TWO BEDROOMS STARTING FROM $129,900 – indigosky.ca

Prices are dropping like a stone.

#22 Best place on meth on 02.18.11 at 11:47 pm

What the hell? What’s up with the increased deposit from that Onni ad? I didn’t know down payments were going up.

Garth, if you can spare 18 seconds can you remind us again the signs that the bubble is bursting?

Something about sales falling but prices rising simultaneously, I can’t find it in past issues.

And I’ve learned something very important from tonight’s piece – David Beckham has exquisite taste in prostitutes.

#23 Lance on 02.18.11 at 11:58 pm

So does that mean that that $700,000 house in the chart will be worth $627,000 in a month in order to cater to the same level of buyer that it did at $700,000 before the changes?
That’s a 10% drop.

#24 Alberta Dude on 02.19.11 at 12:00 am

#3 Edmontonian. It will greatly decimate the middle class (the real estate bubble bursting). Worries me here in Alberta we don’t have the social services to look after our people. Many will lose there homes & have no where to turn. IN Alberta we saw that during the Bubble Peak. Tent city, thousands homeless, crime soaring. Urine & defecation on the main streets.
I wish we had a Federal Government program to protect the most vunerable in society. In Alberta The Government cut off everyone on Provincial disabilty in the 90’s including the blind, mentally ill, suicidal & even people with no legs no arms, god know what will happen in the province during the collpase of real-estate!

#25 Kitchener1 on 02.19.11 at 12:03 am

I hope these two clowns are reading this blog.

FOOLS, LOOK INTO THE CITY GUIDELINES that you are thinking of buying in.

In Waterloo, there is a a new by law proposed, Oshawa already has it in place and London has it as well.

Here is the draft for Waterloo

http://www.city.waterloo.on.ca/DesktopDefault.aspx?tabid=2227

Basically, all homes with 1 bedroom or more being rented out have to be licenced, must pass ESA/Fire code, must be inspected etc..

That means that there is an annual lic fee, all building codes must be up to date, the property must be insured as a boarding/rooming house and not a single family residental. Property tax and assessments will also reflect those changes.

In Waterloo this is just proposed but pretty much a done deal. Notice how in the last month there have been a ton of “student investment property” come on sale?? its not coincidence.

Basically, no more of those black market deals, renting out rooms for cash, not having proper insurance, not maintaining property to code etc..

To the fools, better check the guidlines, im guessing at 250k these guys are in either Barrie, Oshawa, maybe London??? look up local bylaws and run the numbers.

#26 VMT on 02.19.11 at 12:05 am

People live in a virtual La-La land now. I’m not surprised that these two young fellas are into buying “the sure thing”, – if big investment companies these days buy into non existent virtual companies, that nevertheless valued at hundred of millions of dollars at stock exange. Here’s a recent Kaiser report on this subject:

Keiser Report: Welcome to Fakeville (E122)

#27 paulb. on 02.19.11 at 12:08 am

Same here LHHW, a realturd® I know just told me the market was really busy. I replied “for the next 4 weeks” to which he inquired what I was getting at. Unreal.

Vancouver is going to get rocked. >30% price drops coming.

#28 AA on 02.19.11 at 12:08 am

Hey Garth,
I live right beside where they have this new development…went to check out whats going on with it last weekend..the parking lot for the place was packed…90% of asian origin inside signing documents..and a lot of the “missy bunny” types also of the same background…i was quite shocked…especially if you look at the location of this place…squeezed in a small triagular lot between the gardiner expressway and Fort york…the building wont be more than 20 feet away from the expressway… this is too much….i agree with everything you say but when i see things like this happening ….”investors” are going to have a very very rough time going ahead buying tiny boxes at this price.

#29 Lance on 02.19.11 at 12:10 am

Fast forward to 2016:
Trevor and his buddy are facing the renewal of the mortgage on their lovely home that seemed like such a good idea in 2011.
After mortgage interest payments, property taxes, house insurance, repairs to the roof, new stove when the old one died, multiple leaks from faucets, flood repairs when the sump failed and a million other little repairs, plus the few months here and there when the house sat half rented or empty, Trevor and his buddy figure they are out of pocket $30,000 over the past 5 years.
“That’s not so bad”, they figure, $30,000 for two people over 5 years, that’s only $3,000 per year!
Of course, now they want to sell the house. The market has sunk, they list it for $229,000. No takers. They lower to $219,000. An offer comes in for $195,000. They grudgingly accept at $205,000. The realtor takes his $10,000 commission. Trevor and his buddy get $195,000, require $225,000 to pay off the mortgage and need to come up with $30,000.
Now their lovely experiment has cost them $60,000, or $6,000 per year… or $500 per month.
Think they: We could have just rented a 4 bedroom house with 2 other students for $1,600/mo and lived there for $400/month… and had more time to party instead of fixing leaks in the roof every weekend.

#30 Dan in Victoria on 02.19.11 at 12:17 am

Reading
Writing
Arithmetic

Real Estate
Realtor
Wrong

Reality
Reduction
Realisation

Oh wait…… in school…… University town
This is the 3 “R”s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAcN_2kzPwc&feature=related

#31 An Cat Dubh on 02.19.11 at 12:18 am

Here is an old Monty Python skit called “House Hunters”, as in game hunters who hunt houses who eat people, including their “owners”. Sounds like many people are being “eaten” by houses. Enjoy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XICCxyxtHKI

#32 Reality on 02.19.11 at 12:28 am

Maxed out your HELOC? Cant afford that quad, sled or 2 week all inclusive Mexican orgy? Make sure to save enough for one last trip on the hottest vacation you will ever enjoy.

Bankruptcy Tourism. All the kids are doing it!

http://tinyurl.com/63z5vwp

#33 Radio Free OJ on 02.19.11 at 12:32 am

#15 Devore:
True, the premiums fund CMHC, but they appear to be poorly capitalized (a link was posted here a few days ago showing them bragging about 3%).. when all of this heads south, they’ll be looking for help and that will be coming from the rest of us

#34 tiger_baby on 02.19.11 at 12:38 am

“As long as the gov throws interest free loans at students … as long as politicians are dumb enough to keep underwriting our loans.”

so their whole rationale of signing on a long term big ticket commitment is “as long as this works in our favor … and as long as that works in our favor …”

and they think politicians are dumb …

I wonder who will be the babes lucky enough to live with these two gentlemen for only $ 667+/month each?

#35 GenXer on 02.19.11 at 12:40 am

Anyone else following the CMHC’s responses to analyst reports claiming they have insufficient resources to sustain themselves in case of a downturn? Interesting that the organization’s response to Madini quotes published 2009 figures for total loans and provisions and seems to compare them to what an unpublished current average equity number.

I would love to see Madini or others delve into the books further to see what really lies beneath the surface (if the details are made available to them). The new annual report should be out shortly – should be an interesting read!

The quote on 2 times more reserves than the minimums set out by the OSFI – which appears to be 8%. Does this indicate that the organization could handle a loss of up to 16% on it’s portfolio (which actually feels quite safe), or am I reading that wrong?

My question is simple – what default percentage in the Canadian housing market would put the CMHC at risk given current assets? Anyone?

#36 Debt's Dark Embrace on 02.19.11 at 12:44 am

We are bugs in search of a windshield.

#37 tiger_baby on 02.19.11 at 12:46 am

“It’s a cruel joke everyone in the real estate industry knows, and yet nobody (to my knowledge) has had the integrity to mouth.”

No worries, they just need to focus on maximizing profit, and the invisible hand will make everything OK.

#38 BC Bring Cash on 02.19.11 at 12:47 am

This morning Global BC ran another Olympic Condo story starring Bob Rennies of course. After his pitch a RE Lawyers opinion on the False Creek property was broadcast right after. In his opinion its buyer be aware because the developer has fled town, so if you have a workmanship or warranty issue good luck. City of Vancouver is going to tell you to go pound sand.
That Olympic Village was built during a tight labour market. If any one showed up with a hard hat and boots they were hired on the spot. No experience necessary. Don’t forget the rush to finish on time. There has to be quality issues.
Well if you are going to buy after all don’t forget that RE Expert Bob is not bragging about the surrounding neighbourhood. Hell when you walk down to nearby McDonalds restaurant the parking lot is full of shopping carts with bags of empties hanging off them. You could continue your stroll to the 100 yr old Ivanhoe Hotel for a Cool one. Built 100 yrs ago it has not renovated since. Patrons cough and spit on the floor. After watching a bar brawl you could stop by the Park in front of the old train station and take a break. You would have to first navigate through countless beggars and step over drunks laying on the grass. Have a seat on a bench and watch the numerous rats running around your feet.
After your night out you can relax on your False Creek facing deck and watch drunks urinating off their noisy party boats.
You gotta go there and see for yourself. I’m not exaggerating. This slum is for real. No wonder Chinese Investors are shying away. Would you not also?

#39 45north on 02.19.11 at 12:50 am

babe: “so you collect the rent and then give it to the landlord?”

Trevor: “well you see in this case I am the landlord”

babe: “you mean you own this house? by yourself?”

Trevor: “yep”

#40 Jsan on 02.19.11 at 12:53 am

It’s all lies and Illusions as we have seen on Global TV with their phony news stories showing Chinese investors in helicopters and fake lineups in front of new Vancouver condo complexes. It runs so deep, you would think that news organizations like Global and other mainstream TV shows would do their homework but they don’t. It’s all about the ad revenue and selling an illusion that brings in the audience numbers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aG5G38GzhU

.

#41 xindai shan on 02.19.11 at 12:53 am

I am not a “doomer” by any definition of the term, but I think that once Canada’s orgy of stimulus spending is done, we will be lucky if our GDP growth rate excedes inflation. Here is a really sobering article by David Olive on the state of joblessness in the world economy. Housing is touched on.

I spend 2-3 months a year working in China, and every time I land in Beijing it is like a slap in the face reminder that world is changing rapidly.

This article is very well written and very thoughtful – like Garth’s posts. Given the content, it is hard to imagine housing booming into the next decade.

http://thestar.blogs.com/davidolive/2011/02/the-jobs-drought.html

It is really difficult

#42 Dubble on 02.19.11 at 1:25 am

Hi Garth and fellow dogs,

I’m 29, employed as a Commerical Accounts Rep with one of the largest cable companies in Canada. I have been seriously considering going to University to become a Registered Nurse. I am nearly debt free, and I have been unhappy in my current role for the past few years.

Has anyone went to University as an adult or made a career change in their 30’s? I think Nursing is a great career and will be in high demand as more Boomers retire.

I have no kids, great living arrangements, and a girlfriend who supports me in all that I do.

Take the plunge?

#43 Tweets that mention The sure thing — Greater Fool – The Troubled Future of Real Estate -- Topsy.com on 02.19.11 at 1:32 am

[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Brandon Foreman, Virtual Mtutor. Virtual Mtutor said: The sure thing — Greater Fool – The Troubled Future of Real Estate http://t.co/ZYZ1t3W […]

#44 BC Bring Cash on 02.19.11 at 1:42 am

The Globe & Mail reported today that ” House prices to rise with inflation, CMHC says.” What kind of glue are these CMHC economists sniffing? I’d like to try some of that glue that they are on. Sounds like pretty good stuff.

#45 wes_coast on 02.19.11 at 1:46 am

Thirty second. I made the top 50!!! Movin on up!!

#46 BigAl (Original) on 02.19.11 at 2:04 am

The problem is that everyone around these kids teach them they’re infallible, that they’re super-kids, that they deserve the absolute best that life has to offer the moment they graduate university.

I’ve said this before on this blog, but it is a dangerous trend. The business and work world is handing new/recent graduates top-paying top-tier jobs on a silver platter. The government pours hundreds of millions into Youth Employment programs and has multitudes of programs of campus recruitment. Kids like the ones in today’s post are almost guaranteed 60-90K/yr within 2 to 4 years of graduating – and these kids know it. Their less educated counterparts from college/trades will make equal or more within the same time. Even the high school grads will enter the lower end jobs many of which will be subsidized in youth employment incentives given to employers.

And yet, the youth are the age groups that have the least needs and responsibilities. Its the 40 and up feeling the heat from the economy, with a family, mortgage (or rent), and living expenses that needs those jobs.

Yes, I fully realize that, those fresh young grads are willing to work longer hours and have more energy than any 40 plus person. They’ll do anything they’re told, and they’re out to prove themselves, so they want to impress.

My point is that the government’s strategy is ass backwards. They need adult employment strategies and subsidies if they are going to target disadvantaged groups – not youth.

And, by the way, Canada is probably the only country where ‘soft’ quasi-professionals (business degrees, marketing, etc) can make more than their similarly educated parents right out of school.

Recent examples:
-Computer programming grad graduating this coming spring…already has a 88K/yr job lined up the day he graduates.
-25 yr old with an International Studies degree, 6 months HR experience, and 1 year general admin experience, newly hired by a major corporation to help design internal career development courses – 65K/year.
-24 yr old with only 1.5 years clerical government job, just hired as a policy analyst….67K/year, and increments up to 81K after 2 yrs.

Is it any real wonder why the youth of today are so carefree about real estate, money, savings, jobs, etc?

#47 Marcus Aurelius on 02.19.11 at 2:15 am

“Debt is an unrepayable abstraction. The point is never to actually stop owing money, just to start owning stuff.” — Garth

You nailed it there.

People used to have to work hard. People used to borrow money with the idea of paying it back as soon as possible. They knew then that debt, while useful, can turn you into a slave. Nowadays, it seems that few are interested in ever paying it off, comfortable they have become with the idea of just servicing a debt.

Well, guess what? It’s only yours as long as you keep up the payments. The moment you don’t, it’s not yours any more. Any more than the $1000/hr call girl will be yours when you run out of dosh.

#48 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.19.11 at 2:26 am


The sure thing is that they are two nice young men, having figured everything out beforehand — “The boys are gunna get rich!” — who don’t have a clue between them.

I would rather have a conversation with a block of wood.
*
#31 An Cat Dubh — Great link and very apt to the post!
*
US / China Have their roles been quietly reversed?

Inflation and Food Inflation.

Portugal and Japan.

Hillary Hitting all the wrong notes at the wrong time.

Extreme Poverty Higher food prices + crop failures means there’s a lotta hungry people out there.

Suez Gittin’ steamy there.

dubya and Obama Coke or Pepsi?

EU starts banning health food stores.

Solar Flare bounces off North Pole and Freeze Dried food shortages.

CC right off the map, in terms of temp. swings.

Nine Planet Solar System Replacing Pluto . . .

How Netflix destroyed Blockbuster. Interesting charts.

#49 Cellar Dwellar on 02.19.11 at 2:49 am

As Crowded Elevator fartz said in the last blog. ….” Beware the Ides of March”……

#50 EJ on 02.19.11 at 2:51 am

“We know Canadian housing is a ticking time bomb”
“If the value of the house drops 10%, who cares?”

I don’t think good old Trev here understands how big of a time bomb he’s playing with. Is he prepared to deal with a 20% decline? 30%? 50%? Will he care then?

Of course, he comes off as the kind of guy who would just walk away if things weren’t going according to plan. Bankruptcy at a young age in this country doesn’t seem to have quite the consequences it should have. If you’re 40 and married with kids however, different story.

#51 Peter Pan on 02.19.11 at 2:56 am

#28 AA,

I saw the development you’re talking about this summer. I live in Vancouver and if there’s one thing I can say about ONNI is they specialize in the crappiest locations and the shoddiest construction methods. Their projects will probably crumble down in 30 years from the traffic vibrations and their poor building materials/practices.

#52 Jane on 02.19.11 at 3:03 am

#16 Canayjun on 02.18.11 at 11:22 pm
I’m in BC, too, in Vancouver. We live in a building with 13 units, three for sale and one just sold, all in the half million range. Crazy. And the Olympic fiasco, well, the price may have dropped for buyers, but we are going to be picking up the tab for years and years to come. Taxpayers and renters alike, we will all face higher and higher costs. I think we will move to Ottawa for a few years.

#53 debtified on 02.19.11 at 3:53 am

Fact: Debt – We’ve got lots of it.

Cause: Too much consumption – real estate and all sorts of cheap crap.

We’ve been focusing on real estate here but here’s one for the cheap crap. Something different…

Who supplies most of the cheap crap? China.

China has been more than happy to cater to our appetite for consumption. The pattern of our increasing consumption has lead China to match it with increasing production.

In order for China to produce, they need raw materials and energy. That explains our prosperity here in Canada; and Australia at the other side of the world. We are the main suppliers or raw materials and energy to China – thanks to our abundance supply of natural resources.

What happens when our ability to borrow ends (can we really continue to borrow in perpetuity)? Consumption inevitably slows. Production will have to slow in tandem. What happens now to the resulting over capacity in China?

I have said it before and I will say it again: China will cause the next world’s economic crisis. We talk ceaselessly about all sorts of bubbles here at home (real estate, gold, equity, etc…). Be sure not to miss the mother of them all.

Here’s an older video (May 2010) from Australia aptly titled: The Biggest Domino. Grab a tea and sit comfortably. It’s 25 minutes long but it’s very educational from the start to finish. Don’t miss the Play button just underneath the author’s picture.

Enjoy!

http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2010/s2903061.htm

#54 kansai_92 on 02.19.11 at 4:10 am

Garth, here’s that nonsense about overbidding in Richmond, BC.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/richmond_southdelta/richmondreview/news/116348674.html#

Here is the quote that stands out from the story.

“The incentive is that New Land claims to have connections with rich investors from China, and the goal is to drive up property prices and thereby sell at a higher price to the end buyer.”

So the revenue model is to find someone who will pay a higher
price later on.

Why do people fall for this garbage? This is exactly what took down the US. Everyone assumes that property price only goes up.
Even if the property goes up 9%, doesn’t that mean this company New Land is out-of-pocket 1% since they need to pay the investor 10%?
Unbelieveable.

#55 Edmonton Here on 02.19.11 at 4:32 am

http://www.edmontonsun.com/money/2010/08/31/15196421.html

#56 Arcturus on 02.19.11 at 5:13 am

You know things are getting bad when even the CMHC is out there trying to pump up real estate sales.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Edmonton+home+prices+going+CMHC/4303139/story.html

They’re forecasting record levels in 2012 while many of the condos I’ve been eyeing in the area have dropped by 20k over the last 40 days.

#57 Jordan on 02.19.11 at 5:16 am

Ok, it’s clear what the trend for real estate prices is going to be for most of Canada.

Now more importantly, for those of us who have heeded good advice and are actively investing, and making a killing right now, what is the short to intermediate trend for the stock market. And more specifically, do you agree with TAE theory, or a variance there of, that commodity prices will be coming down?

All trends reverse, the question is whether or not we are going to see $150 oil before it does.

Any takers? Garth?

#58 Andrew on 02.19.11 at 5:32 am

I think you’ve hit on one of the most irritating things about this whole run up. People have made really bad decisions all the way along and have been bailed out by appreciation time and time again. Where she stops nobody knows but here in Vancouver we still live in bizarro land where prudence is definitely not rewarded while barely affording a house is.

#59 blase on 02.19.11 at 8:40 am

Garth,

Someone was mentioning on a previous post how nobody is lining up for 50% discounts on the Olympic condos, due at least partially to construction quality issues.

This got me to thinking. You always talk about affordability issues, but what do you think about construction issues? With the materials being used, low-skilled labour, and quality control issues, isn’t it a 5,10 or 15 year ticking time bomb for hundreds of thousands of homes built during this run-up? And won’t this add tens of thousands of dollars of debt to the average home-buyer?

#60 Caveman on 02.19.11 at 8:44 am

I don’t see why the deposit is going up. Is point 2 on the add completely made up?

I think this ad shows they are getting desparate.

#61 John on 02.19.11 at 8:49 am

Questions:

1) If I have greater than 20% equity in my condo, which is coming up for mortgage renewal this summer, will I still be able to go for a 35 year amort? (I like to keep the monthly low and make additional lump sum payments.)

2) If someone is pre-approved for a mortgage before March 18, but closes on their property after the date, does the buyer still have the option of a 35-year amort?

Thanks for any help.

#62 phinny on 02.19.11 at 8:59 am

@Edmontonian
I drive by empty condos every morning and they’re still building more! This is in Edmonton, where we have an economy (albeit one off its ’07 high).

I ask myself – what the heck do they do in Toronto, except some very few elites that get paid WAY TOO MUCH to move money around? And don’t get me started on Vancouver… I didn’t realize smug arrogance and tie-dyed shirts alone could move markets…

Hang in there, though. Alberta is the place to be.

#63 bigrider on 02.19.11 at 9:06 am

Wow Garth, you did such a good job explaining the current wisdom of the home buying/investor individuals that I encounter in my peer group and the falicy of their logic. Much better than I ever have.

Well done on this one.

#64 allister on 02.19.11 at 9:12 am

#24 Alberta Dude

So when these greater fools lose the “investment” property, I as a single income father with two kids and a wife who has lived within my means and responsibly, should have to caugh up to save their stupid asses?

Why are the responsible people always the victim of idiots?

#16 Canayjun – if I list at a lower price to make my house more attractive, my neighbours will sue me because they were foolish enough to overpay?

Definition of a Canadian – be a idiot, and when you ruin your life, take from someone else by the force of law.

#65 Ret on 02.19.11 at 9:21 am

The Chinese elite are getting all of their ill gotten gains out of China as soon as they can to safer countries where contract law is enforced and the governments can’t seize your cash. They have their exit plans well in place. Too bad for the dumb ass peasants left behind.

If the Chinese won’t invest in their own country, why would anyone else? Maybe the rice paddy farmers will catch on to how they are getting so screwed in the new Chinese economy. Maybe the young people in the cities will eventually get tired of working 85 hours a week for years on end for greedy oppressive Chinese factory bosses dutifully following the orders of American capitalists.

Say, isn’t that country due for another purge or revolution yet?

#66 phinny on 02.19.11 at 9:29 am

@Dubble,

Changing careers at anytime is admirable if you can manage it financially- although four years of lost income is tough. Having said that, why do you choose nursing? I don’t know if it’s a good career for men. If you are going to have children some day, and you have a son, it may be something he’d not be comfortable with. My brother-in-law is a nurse, and all my brother’s and dad give him a very hard time.

The other issue, of course, is that free health care is good to a point (for example, I would never argue against investing heavily in pediatric (re:kids) medicine), but our vision of health care is VERY EXPENSIVE, and, as you point out, the Boomer pressure is going to be significant. Keeping oldster’s alive as long as scientifically possible is a heavy drain on our economy. This money could otherwise be invested in business, education, environment, and technological advances. Now, I’m not advocating a Logan’s Run society, or anything, but there has to be a limit.

Would the energy and time and money you put into that education not be better spent developing a business idea, or working in a field that contributes to the strengthening of Canada?

#67 High Park Renter on 02.19.11 at 9:45 am

#31 An Cat Dubh

If Monty Python is up your alley, you might also enjoy this old Really Weird Tales episode, featuring John Candy:

Cursed with Charisma

It’s a comedic take on what happens in a no-money down real estate boom (“Little Johnny just bought his first house!”)– it’s funny and prescient but far longer than the material warrants.

#68 Moneta on 02.19.11 at 9:51 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/financial-facelift/fighting-back-after-a-double-whammy/article1913712/
———-
I’ve been reading Financial Facelift forever and rarely do they recommend to sell a house. The only times they seem to recommend selling is when the couple is in their early 30s and they approach the planner to find out how to extract any surge in equity to buy one more condo to add to their collection…. and it’s not speculation because they are always in for the long term. LOL.

The planner will tell you to cut everything that makes life enjoyable or even bearable to hold onto that house that is essentially keeping them awake at night. But of course the homeowners probably don’t see it that way… In their minds, they can’t sleep because it’s the underpaid spouse, the ungrateful expensive kids, the cheap boss… In the end, the solution always involves debt consolidation. Yes, debt repackaging. That’s the game that has been going on for the last 2-3 decades. It’s burned into everyone’s brain to the point that most people can’t see life beyond debt.

This couple is in its 60s. They still have 163K in mortgage debt and they still plan on retiring when the 200K in net worth is ALL in their home!

IMO it is obvious they need to sell NOW and rent or buy something that can be fully paid off. But this is their reasoning:

“One alternative the couple is considering is selling their townhouse in 2015 when the mortgage comes up for renewal and renting their son’s condo apartment nearby for $1,000 a month. If they sell earlier, they face a mortgage prepayment penalty of more than $3,200”.

How much do you want to bet that in 2015, their loss will be around 200K and not 3,200$?

#69 The Original Dave on 02.19.11 at 9:55 am

Hi Garth and fellow dogs,

I’m 29, employed as a Commerical Accounts Rep with one of the largest cable companies in Canada. I have been seriously considering going to University to become a Registered Nurse. I am nearly debt free, and I have been unhappy in my current role for the past few years.

Has anyone went to University as an adult or made a career change in their 30′s? I think Nursing is a great career and will be in high demand as more Boomers retire.

I have no kids, great living arrangements, and a girlfriend who supports me in all that I do.

Take the plunge?

————————————————–

I’m actually thinking of doing the exact same thing. I’m 32. Definitely an area that will be in high demand. The volatility of everything else is tiring, and I’d like to work in a stable/growing sector.

#70 Moneta on 02.19.11 at 9:55 am

In order for China to produce, they need raw materials and energy. That explains our prosperity here in Canada; and Australia at the other side of the world. We are the main suppliers or raw materials and energy to China – thanks to our abundance supply of natural resources.
——-
We are selling low added value products to import high added value products.

We are burning our furniture to heat our houses.

#71 Paolo on 02.19.11 at 10:07 am

“We know Canadian housing is a ticking time bomb, but we don’t care.”

Wow!

Again, someone explain to me how any of this will not end badly.

#72 Ex-Cowtown on 02.19.11 at 10:08 am

#36 Zenith on 02.19.11 at 12:43 am
Some posters think that real estate prices in their city are going down…

…only in their own minds…

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You funny guy. Make me laugh. Me see RE boards in mall with high price crossed out in blue pen and lower price written in. Me think less means less not more.

Me not RE agent; me must be stoopid.

#73 Moneta on 02.19.11 at 10:10 am

And, by the way, Canada is probably the only country where ‘soft’ quasi-professionals (business degrees, marketing, etc) can make more than their similarly educated parents right out of school.
——
The elastic can only be stretched so far before it snaps.

If you keep on paying too much for no production, you will stoke inflation. Oh wait a minute… that’s what governments always want because it reduces the debt-to-gdp ratio.

There can be a free lunch for a few but there is no free lunch for a nation. And with 70% homeownership, the free lunch is now a little too widepsread.

There will be a shock.

#74 eddy on 02.19.11 at 10:13 am

No risk, no reward. Here is an educational cartoon about banking:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPWH5TlbloU&feature=player_embedded#at=1090

#75 Ex-Cowtown on 02.19.11 at 10:17 am

#43 Dubble on 02.19.11 at 1:25 am
Hi Garth and fellow dogs,

I’m 29, employed as a Commerical Accounts Rep with one of the largest cable companies in Canada. I have been seriously considering going to University to become a Registered Nurse. I am nearly debt free, and I have been unhappy in my current role for the past few years.

Has anyone went to University as an adult or made a career change in their 30′s? I think Nursing is a great career and will be in high demand as more Boomers retire.

I have no kids, great living arrangements, and a girlfriend who supports me in all that I do.

Take the plunge?

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Do it. I changed horses at 38 and went back to take my Masters. Opened a ton of doors. Only problem was that I wasn’t as interested in drinking and partying as I was in my twenties, so my marks went to straight A’s. Other than that it was great.

Oh, and I had a 2 year old and another on the way. Makes you focus like you wouldn’t believe.

#76 JC on 02.19.11 at 10:25 am

Onni team eh?

Must be a cruel joke cause take away one n and you have the Japanese phonetic for Demon.

“Oni”

#77 TS on 02.19.11 at 10:26 am

Condos in Olympic Village being relaunched at 30% discount….

http://news.sympatico.cbc.ca/canada/olympic_village_condos_discounted_30/7286de64

#78 Markey on 02.19.11 at 10:26 am

Had drinks yesterday with an Irish friend whose family in Ireland is struggling post-crash. I asked her if she sees the same thing happening here. She said that she is surprised it hasn’t already happened and when it does, it is going to be bad.

#79 Daisy Mae on 02.19.11 at 10:28 am

BOSA Properties denies any knowledge of the paid ‘buyers’ for the Sovereign…and instead, suggests it’s the realtors who have set this up. Heard this denial on the radio news this morning.

#80 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.19.11 at 10:35 am

@ #61 Caveman:

The “deposit goes up” because the buyer wouldn’t qualify for that same mortgage amount… i.e. they need to have a higher down payment to combine with the lower mortgage amount to buy the same price of property.

For example, to buy a $400,000 home…

Today, maybe you qualify for $380,000: $20,000 down + $380,000 = $400,000

After March 18, maybe you qualify for only $350,000: $50,000 down + $350,000 = $400,000

#81 CalgaryRocks on 02.19.11 at 10:42 am

#194 Mike Turner on 02.18.11 at 9:20 pm
It’s G-town Garth, but yeah the weather sucks, glad I’m in Italy 15 degrees and sun tomorrow I might go visit a masterpiece or two. It is different here same price as a rat hole in Toronto and I can see Michelangelo, Da Vinci, Raphael, Donnatello all the ninja turtles. Keep dreaming Canada.

We both had job offers in Europe but damn, the salaries are lower and taxes double. And housing? Lol, only millionaires have the square footage we enjoy here. Better to just enjoy it as a tourist.

But I do love Europe and I wouldn’t rule it out; just not into the phase of my life where I need to maximize earnings.

#82 Toronto on 02.19.11 at 10:46 am

Why is there a 5% increase in deposit?

#83 David on 02.19.11 at 10:57 am

#15 -Devore

Let me correct a very BIG misperception on your part…CMHC is capitalized mainly by its ability to float bonds in the market. Investors gobble them up because they have a federal government guarantee. I have bought many CMHC bonds in the past, and will continue to.

The fraction of CMHC’s Balance Sheet that is made up of user fees (the insurance premiums charged) is small.

IMO, charging less than 3% of total loan value COULD work on a near-zero equity loan….with very solid borrowers, or as an ANNUAL fee. But as it is structured now (a one-time only fee for the life of the mortgage for anyone with a job) the mortgages underwritten by CMHC in the past 5 years are underpinned with nearly zero equity, and are being taken out by homeowners who are so relatively ignorant of the reality of debt and finance that they are surely the highest risk loans to be in default. Bad combo.

CMHC is the financial timebomb that Canada has sitting in a closet….even while F. was busy running around the world chastising everyone for not being smart like us.

We’ll get our day.

#84 Wendy on 02.19.11 at 11:27 am

Well, having been following your blog for the last month we finally decided that we’re going to sell the property we bought on the east coast. Figuring since we bought the property with the plans to move out east and having had those plans have changed, we’re hoping to get out before price drops. We’re considering it a life lesson and now I can honestly say I don’t feel the “need” to own a house like I did as a youth. Of course the selling process is a wake up call to how many fees there are to sell.

Next plan…saving and investing. I’d like to stop working some day.

#85 OttawaMike on 02.19.11 at 11:55 am

USA ‘s manufacturing is still 46% higher that China’s.
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2011/02/06/made_in_the_usa/

Yeah we’re losing low skill jobs and exporting our raw materials for value added processes over seas but Canada and US will still produce high value innovative niche products. Those with the right skill sets will continue to thrive.

In Garth’s post nobody mentions what will happen to the students if prices rise another 10% over two years and then stay flat. By then they will be graduates ready to sell. I still think their risk/reward ratio is too dangerous but hey some people are lucky gamblers.

#86 Rob on 02.19.11 at 12:08 pm

#43…Dubble

Do it. I changed gears completely at 34. It was a very tough decision but 8 years later could not be happier.
There is no risk investing in a nursing degree at all. You can work anywhere, as much or as little as you want, including the US. I have several friends who are nurses and they all have steady, good paying flexible jobs with lots of opportunity.
Some people thought I was wrong to change careers at 35. Now I am happier and more secure than virtually everyone I know, except maybe the nurses!

#87 Painted Toenails on 02.19.11 at 12:09 pm

The Original Dave/Cowtown/anyone else:

Do it! Absolutely! I changed careers ten years ago (chucked in the fancy corporate life and went into my own business). A.M.A.Z.I.N.G difference in lifestyle. And yes, after the first five years I made the same money and now make even more. It’s not a guarantee but you know what? I know MY skills ARE guaranteed to me. I’ve tested them and I’m solid. You’ll soon know that too. There is no better platform from which to live life.

We all know people who stuck with whatever profession they had because of god know’s what reason and are bloody miserable every day of their lives! I’d venture to say more than half of the professionals I know feel this way. Doesn’t matter about the money, although it certainly helps to be well-paid. At the end of the day you really do need to like what you do.

I hope you both do it. PLEASE do it. I’ve read both of your posts over the months, you’re both bright and insightful. If you feel this time is your time, this shot is yours, step up and take it.

Good luck!

#88 Sid on 02.19.11 at 12:17 pm

I think this is a great idea for these 2 young men to buy now. It is only 125k in debt each, which is really not much considering how much student debt kids think is acceptable these days. It will teach them some responsibility, meaning they will be fixing toilets, painting, and landscaping instead of drinking and partying, and it will teach them people skills (collecting rent from poor students, making the guy that trashed his room pay for repairs). Yes, they will likely lose money in the end, but these young men will learn a very valuable lesson about real estate, and hopefully it will help guide their decisions when it comes to buying a real house some day when they get married. It is much easier to say no to the wife that wants the 600K mcmansion when you have been there done that.

#89 Moneta on 02.19.11 at 12:21 pm

Keeping oldster’s alive as long as scientifically possible is a heavy drain on our economy
———–
An economy is what you want it to be. It is based on needs and wants. It is made of trade between people.

For example. Let’s say I take time off to nurse a parent because the government will not pay, my work does not get represented in our national GDP but it is still work! If I keep on working at may job and pay for a nurse, we then have 2 remunerated jobs instead of 0 and our GDP gets a boost.

And frankly, our GDP desperately needs this boost. It’s GDP that permits our government to borrow. It’s growing GDP that keeps our dollar up and permits us to import stuff.

Investing in health care efficiently can create all kinds of new research, technological developement, new skills which are exportable and keeps Canada on the list of developed countries.

We have to change our ways of thinking when it comes to costs. Health care is not a cost in our GDP, it’s a revenue. That doctor is making money and spending it. Technology is a cost for most firms but are we trying to suffocate the technology industry?

Canada is such a small country that becoming a leader in health care could propel it to the top. Think Norway with oil.

We can cut a lot of materialism before cutting health care. Materialism means we consume resources we could be selling or preserving for future generations. Materialism means we keep on exporting low added value resources and import high added value goods.

Personally, I would have preferred to see billions of dollars go into health care research and development instead of building larger homes, forking our money over to Mercedes and BMW and losing our shirts in Nortel.

#90 infernalmachine on 02.19.11 at 12:28 pm

@ #47 – Big Al

I’m not sure what world you are living in. Maybe you live in Calgary or LaLaLand, or some other such fantasy world. I’m in my late 20s and I have a university degree, as do many of my former university colleagues and there aren’t many of us earning $88K a year.

Off the top of my head, I can think of one who went back to get a plumbing Red Seal after completing a degree at UofT. Another science major from UofT working for $35K a year (if that) as a telephone helpdesk operator at an insurance company. A few still (4 years later) barely employed – making $13/hr in the retail sector. I myself did a stint of 6 months in the retail sector after graduating because the only places willing to hire were willing to offer $12/hr or were 24 hour call centres. I got lucky and ended up in a call centre in government where I had worked as a student one summer, and worked my way into admin and then into internal communications. After taking a number of further college courses.

My sister, who has a BEd and is a qualified teacher, is working as an admin assistant. My sister’s boyfriend, graduating as an engineer, will be starting his career at the lofty pay rate of $50K which he thinks is just tits.

Not to mention the student debt that most of us have (or to avoid had to work late shifts in …yes, retail.) which is much larger than the debt that people of the 40s-ish generation graduated with a couple of decades ago.

I’m not sure what these “helpful” programs are, but I sure as hell haven’t seemed to be able to tap into any of them. Please do point out specific programs, I’ll recommend them to my Honours BA or BSc friends working 14 hours at 2 jobs to afford rent in this town.

Yes, some of “us” –the 20ish generation — are spoiled brats. Some of the 20 year olds around got their parents to pay for school, lucked out with an internship that they could afford to take because they have affluent parents. Maybe some of them got lucky like me and worked themselves miraculously into a decent job. I know a few computer scientists who after a couple of years of looking and terrible short term contract work have hooked jobs with IBM or whatnot.

But this “the young-uns are so privileged” crap is really wearing my patience thin. I’d give anything to have been born in the 70s when I could have gotten a uni degree for $5000 total and then landed a journalism job or a stock broker job with only that one degree and no debt.

So please, dear Big Al, if you’d like to join my friend in the call centre, give me a shout.

#91 Moneta on 02.19.11 at 12:29 pm

Let’s say I take time off to nurse a parent because the government will not pay
————-
Correct this: government intervention promotes a family caregiver approach

For example, Harper wanted to give a tax deduction to a household where 1 spouse stays home to nurse a family member.

You can already guess which gender will generally be forced out of the workforce with such a policy!

#92 kilby on 02.19.11 at 12:32 pm

Spoke to a person that repairs deficiencies in condominiums for a large developer here in Vancouver, I said “Bet there is a lot to fix in the Olympic Village condos as they were built so fast” He replied that he would stay away because of “condensation” and that the water piping is not insulated properly….or that is the rumour in the trade. One more reason besides the City of Vancouver’s not assuming any responsibility for the construction to stay far away!

#93 Moneta on 02.19.11 at 12:33 pm

Personally, I would have preferred to see billions of dollars go into health care research and development instead of building larger homes, forking our money over to Mercedes and BMW and losing our shirts in Nortel.
——–
The problem we are now facing is that Canadians got their monster homes and now want perfect health care without having invested properly in it.

Health care represents a mere .5% in the TSX!!!!

#94 David B on 02.19.11 at 12:34 pm

Boys oh boys aren’t we the luck ones having the Canadian Shield attached to the Greatest Prime Minister and Finance Mister ever so we can retire in luxury.

Rather than this sad news from south of border.

Retiring Boomers Find 401(k) Plans Fall Short

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703959604576152792748707356.html?mod=WSJ_hp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsTop

#95 Joe on 02.19.11 at 12:38 pm

Regarding that ONNI Flyer….why are they saying you need more downpayment come March 18th ?? There were no changes to d/p rules that I know of…..

#96 dd on 02.19.11 at 12:42 pm

#1 first …. first
#2 randman … First..maybe?

Loser 1 and 2 Ladies and Gentlemen.

#97 April on 02.19.11 at 12:52 pm

Canada housing agency ups 2011 housing starts view – Yahoo! News. This article [by CMHC]also saying it will be a seller’s market over the next couple of yrs. Not sure what this is saying. Is this a contradiction or what? Since we have a glut of homes for sale especially condos in Van and Toronto at least I would have thought there would be a decrease in home starts??? Comments anyone?

#98 bridgepigeon on 02.19.11 at 12:58 pm

60 Blase
By the time your house reaches 15 years old you will need to replace most of: roof, skylights, windows, driveway, exterior doors, garage door, carpets, most appliances, furnace, air, painting twice inside, several times outside, any neglected fences and decks, probably plumbing fixtures…plus other surprises and that’s without me thinking about it too much…

#99 dd on 02.19.11 at 1:01 pm

#43 Dubble

…I’m 29, employed as a Commerical Accounts Rep..seriously considering going to University to become a Registered Nurse.

Dub. My girlfriend just finished the 2 year program at the UoC. Couple of thoughts:

– Hospital spending is based on government spending.
– Over the long term NR employment look really good.
– If you have an undergrad, you are ahead of the game. Consider upgrading any courses you need while you are in your present job. The longer you stay employed the better
– It could cost you about $40k. If you get done on time the gov could take $10k off.
– Even RN is a job. You might be sick of it at one point.
– The ratio of gals to guys in the classroom is 9-1. Giddy-up.

#100 Dodged-A-Bullit-in Alberta on 02.19.11 at 1:03 pm

Greetings: # 43 [Dubble]

Sometime back in the 80s’ I spent 4 winter months on the picket line, November -February. We had two small children at home, wife was a homemaker. After the strike I was told in no uncertain terms that she was going back to school and would never again depend on a single paycheque. Enrolled in a college in Calgary as a nurse and has been nursing ever since. After this long, and past 56 years age, the long hours and shift work are taking their toll. She will be leaving her job end of March. The health care field has deteoriated such that money drives the system and older nurses with their high wages are being driven to leave by bureautic mis-management, waste, and unrealistic expectations, and lack of appreciation for years of service. If you do decide to go into nursing, I suggest looking at becoming an EMT [paramedic] or specializing in geriatic care which is a booming field as young people do not find this field attractive. No glamor etc. A couple of things you will bring to the new profession will be the maturity of past life experiences combined with a healthy dose of cynicism from already having spent time in the corporate workforce. You may have difficulity adapting to some of the bullshit you will encounter as your common sense will say that there are better ways than what you might be hearing. If you do chose this path, do not make the error my wife did. She stayed on a single path [labor and delivery] and as the frustrations started to build, she discovered that over the years all she wanted was to be left alone to do her job, however, she had no other place to go. Bureautics can’t accept that and neither do politicans. The mantra of ” we want degree nurses”, has made many nurses without degrees wonder which has priority, patient care or the letters behind your name??? The system has been fiddled with, so that much of her time is spent filling out paperwork or computer entry as opposed to hands on nursing. One of the reasons Alberta health care is such a mess. The system is self serving to keep it alive. My wife reports to an administrator who hasn’t a clue how a pregnancy is carried to term or what happens with hands on patient care. Does that sound familiar ??? Best of luck with your choices!!!

#101 Denisa on 02.19.11 at 1:17 pm

@ Dubble
Yes Dubble take the plunge! Male nurses are in high demand. May I suggest you go for a degree after your diploma and take a 9-5 position as a Head nurse. Life as a shift worker is bad for your health 10 years into it, especially if you are working 12 hour shifts. You may set yourself up for burnout if you don’t have a balanced lifestyle in this career choice as shift worker!

#102 Mikey the Realtor on 02.19.11 at 1:17 pm

Kitchener1, bylaws mean squidly, no pun intended squid. I was just reading about all these rental bylaws not too long ago, and the most important piece out of that article was the fact that there is not enough officers to enforce any of these rental bylaws by a longshot, sorry to shatter your doomster dream.

#103 Spiltbongwater on 02.19.11 at 1:40 pm

Developer Denies Shady Hyping Project
Vancouver/AM980
Penny Daflos | Email news tips to Penny
2/18/2011

One of BC’s biggest developers denies paying people to stand in line and create hype around a Burnaby condo project.

Bosa Properties sales and marketing Vice President Daryl Simpson says they don’t pay people to stand in line.

“that’s certainly not something we engage in.”

He’s aware of a Craiglist ad offering to pay people to queue up at the Sovereign Development but, insists it’s not a marketing tactic cooked up by his company.

“there’s absolutely no truth to that whatsoever. what we’ve learned is that there may have been some Realtors who were paying some people to stay in line to get a number for them, for their client.”

Sovereign goes on sale Saturday morning.

Simpson says there’s huge appetite for condos in the Metrotown area, and more than 1000 buyers have already expressed interest in the 200 units.

#104 Moneta on 02.19.11 at 1:40 pm

Perfect example:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/auto-executives-to-seek-ottawa-help/article1912245/

There’s a worldwide glut of car manufacturers as every government in the world keeps propping up that sector. It’s a sexy industry and in politics men still rule. Men lust for cars so more money just keeps on getting thrown down that money pit.

Sure Asians will be buying more cars but what’s the chance they’ll buy them from us when they are already controlling much of the world’s car production?

Car demand is probably going down the drain over the next decade with boomers retiring with not enough money, and probably downsizing from 2-3 cars to 1-2.

So if our government is going to fork over billions over the next decade, should it be giving more to the car industry or the health care industry?

We Canadians have a lot of prioritizing to do.

#105 Brian on 02.19.11 at 1:44 pm

Jordan – re. commodities – I think they have a while to run – although etf gold is at all time lows – but instability in the middle east is going to continue for a while and will keep gold up, then down big time.

oil is trickier – China is key and they are heading for trouble – not for a while IMHO but within the next year.

I am a big fan of Elliott wave – it is tricky and takes a while to learn but the best model I have found.

I would love to see Elliott Wave analysis on RE – I would expect we are just finishing a wave 5 up – next is down (A wave) then a retracement, then down again (C)

#106 Cellar Dwellar on 02.19.11 at 1:45 pm

@ #42 Xindai Shian
Thank you for That link to David Olive’s article . It was EXCELLENT !

#107 I. Muvrini on 02.19.11 at 1:46 pm

#71 – Moneta

“We are selling low added value products to import high added value products.

We are burning our furniture to heat our houses.”

Actually, we ran out of furniture to burn last year. We’re now burning the doors, and peeing in our pants to stay warm.

#108 Cellar Dwellar on 02.19.11 at 1:48 pm

@ #43 Dubble.
Go for it ! Male Nurses are in HUGE demand. Nurses work tons of OT. And why stay in a job you hate. It will gnaw at you.
Save some money for the course, check it out, make the jump.

#109 jess on 02.19.11 at 1:50 pm

Thanks 26 VMT

fake indeed! where was the landsat photo!

Farm insurance fraud is cheating taxpayers out of millions Perpetrators falsely claim weather or insects destroyed their crops and cash in on a government-backed insurance program. Some don’t bother planting at all. Others sell their harvests in secret.
February 06, 2011|By P.J. Huffstutter, Los Angeles Times
Reporting from Sacramento — The federal investigator took the witness stand and described the crime scene: a sprawling field clogged with boulders, native grasses and knee-high sagebrush.

Landsat and the investigation
When Brown is hired to investigate a questionable claim, he looks for evidence of whether or not a farmer actually planted or harvested what was asserted. If the Landsat image does not support the farmer’s insurance claim, then Brown will testify to that fact in court.

Brown has testified as an expert witness 26 times solving over $50 million in crop fraud cases, mainly for the government. In some cases, Brown is able to show that a field that a farmer claimed had failed was never even plowed.

“A Landsat image catches them in the act,” Brown says, referring to both the bi-monthly Landsat image acquisition schedule and the robust U.S. Landsat data archive.
========

fake forest and trading trees with carbon market

Markets: Europe’s carbon emissions trading — growing pains or …31 Jan 2011 … The spate of carousel fraud was the first major challenge carbon market advocates faced. The VAT fraud is estimated to have cost governments …
http://www.eenews.net/public/climatewire/2011/01/31/3 – CachedItalian Police Investigate Suspected Tax Fraud in Carbon Market …17 Dec 2010 … Possible charges include fraud, emission of fake receipts and money … been clamping down on value-added tax fraud in carbon markets after …
http://www.businessweek.com/…/italian-police-investigate-suspected-tax-fraud-in-carbon-market.html – Cached[PDF] Ten Ways to Game the Carbon MarketFile Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat – Quick View
consumer fraud in the carbon offsets market.5. But fake carbon credits can be used to bilk sellers, too. One of the most controversial examples involves a …
http://www.probeinternational.org/…/10WaystoGametheCarbonMarkets_Web.pdf

#110 jess on 02.19.11 at 2:08 pm

yep, and i wonder who the main lobby group was for this bs.

The “American Power Act” proposed by Senators John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.)

The guide, Ten Ways to Game the Carbon Market, outlines ten different ways in which fraudsters can game carbon trading systems. Nine methods have already been successfully carried out. Some tricks are variations of classic scams such as Ponzi schemes, phishing and tax fraud. But other cons are more particular to carbon trading.

#111 Cellar Dwellar on 02.19.11 at 2:11 pm

Sat morning feb 19/11 on CKNW radio…
Ozzie Jurrock sez “property is going up”!
” If you have $1000.00 , I can get you a house in Detroit ! ”
A major city like Detroit that is “erasing 4000 homes back to parkland…Its aTREMENDOUS opportunity!”
and dont forget to Check out his website Landrushcanada.com ”
……and dont forget you can take his “course” (Real estate Action Group or RAG for short) for the small sum of $475.00 ! So that you too will learn how to see a good “deal”

CKNW is nothing more than an endless info-mercial for hucksters. Our choices are Global TV pumping real estate or CKNW doing the same thing…….Brutal

And people wonder why Real estate prices out here are so crazy

#112 David on 02.19.11 at 2:16 pm

Dear #1 First:

So, was it worth it? I’d like to think that, once someone accomplishes it, that you and your ilk will realize how utterly stupid it is.

If not, then I guess I’ll see you again tomorrow. Congratulations on your accomplishment.

#113 S.W. Ontario on 02.19.11 at 2:18 pm

Garth, That was a super explanation on the megers of the stock exchages .
I subscribe to ‘The Collapse Network” with Michael C. Ruppert and he tried to explain the stockmarket merger and many people still didn’t get it. So thanks for your great explanation!

I hope you will continue to give Canadaian’s updates on what to do with our money as things keep on unraveling !

For those who are Baby Boomers and married long time to someone who chooses not to see the changes that are happening and the coming changes, selling ones house isn’t an option .
I’m sure I’m not the only one in this situation. It takes 2 to tango!

Would you please give your advice again on buying gold and silver.

I am under no obligation to give you an opinion on anything. The exchanges merger is irrelevant to individual investor actions. And I’m sorry about your wife. — Garth

#114 whatadeal on 02.19.11 at 2:35 pm

has the down payment changed from 5% to 10%??? if someone can please clear this up for me. TIA

#115 Devore on 02.19.11 at 2:53 pm

#33 Radio Free OJ

I agree with the general sentiment, just nit picking. CMHC is not costing tax payers anything at this time.

Also, CMHC would be responsible for the deficit between mortgage principle and house liquidation value. This could be a substantial amount, but it would not be 100% of the insured amount. While they may fail a catastrophic stress test, the situation is not as dire as it may appear.

#116 Cookie Monster on 02.19.11 at 2:55 pm

No risk, no reward. Here is an educational cartoon about banking:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPWH5TlbloU&feature=player_embedded#at=1090
————
Eddy, that was excellent. Thanks.
I’d seen part before but I watched the whole thing this time and already knew most of it, but it definitely helped to put the JFK assassination into perspective. It all makes sense now.

#117 Devore on 02.19.11 at 3:06 pm

#48 Marcus Aurelius

People used to have to work hard. People used to borrow money with the idea of paying it back as soon as possible. They knew then that debt, while useful, can turn you into a slave. Nowadays, it seems that few are interested in ever paying it off, comfortable they have become with the idea of just servicing a debt.

Oh please. This is just another way to say “when I was young, we walked to school uphill, both ways”.

People haven’t changed. All that’s changed is that it is much easier to qualify for loans, and the carrying costs are much lower. When interest rates make you cringe, you just don’t borrow money (and lending is far riskier too), it has nothing to do with superior analytical skills business acumen.

#118 Marcus Aurelius on 02.19.11 at 3:10 pm

#43 Dubble

If you are going to make the career change, better do it now. I made a change when I was in my 40s, a lot harder. A friend of mine in his late 40s, almost impossible. Another friend, from accountant to doctor in early 30s, just do-able.

Problem is, when you are teenager or early 20s, brain is able to better absorb the stuff. As you get older, you may get wiser but learning comes harder. And so many younger lions to compete with. That’s my take on the age issue involved.

Don’t be afraid to leap. When I was 31 I went walkabout for a year, travelled the world, spent all that I had. Best decision I ever made. Couldn’t do it now. It’s about the time of your life to do it. And that is probably now, or never.

Go ahead and jump!

#119 Devore on 02.19.11 at 3:14 pm

#61 Caveman

I don’t see why the deposit is going up. Is point 2 on the add completely made up?

The only thing I can think of is that if you want to keep the monthly payment the same with a 30 year amortization as you had with 35, you’ll have to put more down.

The whole ad is about the monthly payment (indeed, as is all real estate “investing”) so this would not surprise me.

#120 Devore on 02.19.11 at 3:17 pm

#62 John

1. Some lenders will probably discontinue offering non-CMHC-insured 35 year mortgages, others will continue to have them. Probably depends on your credit score and risk profile.

2. No. The mortgage paperwork must be signed and submitted by the deadline.

#121 Old timer on 02.19.11 at 3:21 pm

With regards to the Olympic Village – the appliances are top-of-the-line “apartment” sized. The ovens are too small to fit a baking sheet let alone a turkey. The LEED certified heating system was down for most of the winter – pumps just replaced in the last month. Tenants were put up in hotels during the one week of sub-zero weather we had in November. There are problems with the electrical and just about everything else. The toilets are flushed with recyled “grey” water so the toilets bowls are always filled with yellow water, appearing to never be flushed. Prospective buyers are being asked to sign a waiver agreeing never to sue the City of Vancouver for any deficiencies. The city is more than delusional if they truly believe the luxury market will snap back and in a year they’ll be able to jack up the prices on the remaining units again, as they have said they will. Definitely a black hole on Vancouver’s bottom line.

#122 Cato on 02.19.11 at 3:28 pm

Trev and Bud have no idea what they are in for, best case scenerio they’ll end up holding dead asset with negligible cap rate and probably end up at each others throats when things start going sideways.

None of these trump wannabes look at how debt robs opportunity. Stumble upon a business opportunity of a lifetime ? tough, you’ve already blow your wad on real estate so step aside. Take a cue from the smart money, easy gains have been made long ago – its time to start looking for next bubble and it aint going to be real estate.

#123 wetcoaster on 02.19.11 at 3:30 pm

Bosa is full of it. If they wanted an orderly lineup only on Saturday morning, why didn’t they create a simple phone in/email system at a set time a week ahead, on a first call, first serve basis just like you would do for a concert ticket and you get a wrist band sent to you ?

So what Bosa is saying is your client’s spot in line is determined on which hard up person for $8 an hour shows up first. Lying bags of crap. No hype= no sales.

#124 bridgepigeon on 02.19.11 at 3:33 pm

102 Mickey
Depends. Couple parties, couple phone calls from a neighbour, things can change once you’re in their files…

#125 David on 02.19.11 at 3:41 pm

#117 Devore

If you think people have not changed in their attitudes towards debt, you are not only wrong, but as someone who reads this blog, you are amazingly incapable of learning.

#126 betamax on 02.19.11 at 3:58 pm

Garth: “Debt is an unrepayable abstraction. The point is never to actually stop owing money, just to start owning stuff.”

The more that I think about it, this quote gets at the heart of what’s wrong with our credit-soused society today. People think debt is money and mistake the trappings of wealth for wealth itself.

#127 Sid on 02.19.11 at 4:04 pm

infernalmachine

Those born in the 70s were part of Generation X. This large group of people graduated in the 90s, a time of economic turmoil, recession and shitty jobs. Those born in the 50s and 60s had it best.

#128 betamax on 02.19.11 at 4:05 pm

#52 Peter Pan: “I live in Vancouver and if there’s one thing I can say about ONNI is they specialize in the crappiest locations and the shoddiest construction methods.”

I’m not sure ONNI is the absolute worst — it’s a crowded field — but they’re certainly aiming for it.

#129 Westsider on 02.19.11 at 4:05 pm

I know two skilled workers who worked on the Millenium Waters project. for 2 years. One was an electrician who saw horrible problems with the heating system, the other was told by his foreman, “don’t worry how it’s done, just hurry up and get the job done”. Neither would buy or rent there even if they reduced prices by 100%. This won’t end well!!!

#130 betamax on 02.19.11 at 4:22 pm

Dubble — you’re at a perfect age: old enough to know what you want and still young enough to make the change. Education (esp. in a field in which jobs are plentiful) is a wonderful thing — a few years of hard work can pay dividends for a lifetime.

#131 1st on 02.19.11 at 4:23 pm

120th

#132 Tiffa on 02.19.11 at 4:27 pm

RN programs are different depending on where you’re located. If you want to get into UBC’s program, for example, you need to have an undergrad degree (or most of one) and you’re going to be in competition for spaces with a whole lot of top notch Bio-chem students and so on. This is different from Ontario, as are the various RPN, LPN programs and so on (in Ontario, RPN is Registered Practical Nurse, in BC a practical nurse is an LPN -license- and an RPN is a Registered Psychiatric Nurse).

I would recommend to anyone who is looking to get into an RN program to look at waiting lists and requirements for their desired program, and of course the ratio of applicants to program spaces. There will be a process of retiring nurses and positions opening, but there has also been a huge push to get people training as RNs, which we’re at the tail end of, at least in BC. I know, personally, eleven people who are either in (second-career) RN programs, or working on a degree with the hope of getting into an RN program in a couple of years. These people were teachers, stone masons, a chemist, etc. It is the job that everybody seems to be thinking of as a good stable option, but that can of course result in an overabundance of trained workers.

It’s a good option to consider, but do your homework and apply to the program… Get accepted before making any big life changes under the assumption that you’re in, and as in anything, have a back-up plan.

#133 goldenfox on 02.19.11 at 4:37 pm

The Big Splatter

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/02/we-owe-how-much-waiting-for-big.html

#134 marc fortier on 02.19.11 at 4:39 pm

read it and weep
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/03/michael-lewis-ireland-201103?currentPage=all

#135 AG Sage on 02.19.11 at 5:06 pm

I say these kids should jump in and be landlords. Best learning experience ever. Clearly their university isn’t teaching them anything. This way they’ll get something out of their time there.

Rather than getting angry with these kids about the risk of the taxpayers picking up the tab for their supermicro econ 101 experiment, fix the system that allows that in the first place.

>#43 Dubble on 02.19.11 at 1:25 am
>Hi Garth and fellow dogs,

You had me at “unhappy in current role”. If you can’t steer the ship of life toward happiness you aren’t the captain.

>#66 Ret on 02.19.11 at 9:21 am
>Say, isn’t that country due for another purge or revolution yet?

China is blocking “jasmine” on the social network site over there. And they are scooping up jasmine revolution organizers as we speak.

So, I guess the answer would be, “yes.”

#136 BrianT on 02.19.11 at 5:08 pm

#93Moneta-this whole “health care” trip is a pile of B/S. There is very little coorelation between funds spent on “health care” (actually sick care) and the overall health of the population. By the time you are an inmate of the system, you are already in big trouble statistically. Anyone hoping for the guv to magically make them “healthy” is dreaming.

#137 BrianT on 02.19.11 at 5:16 pm

#89Moneta-Billions of dollars to waste? Everybody is aware right now that Corn Syrup Solids is a killer-it is in pretty well in every processed food. You want to spend a fortune of taxpayer capital on research and we can’t even get CSS out of our food supply-I haven’t even mentioned the multitude of chemicals in food our guv feels is necessary. The sickness industry needs sick people to grow their bottom line-that is a major societal problem and it will just get worse with your prescription.

#138 X on 02.19.11 at 5:19 pm

re #114 – No changes.

#139 Jeff Smith on 02.19.11 at 5:57 pm

sense of premonition?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/9401513.stm

#140 OttawaMike on 02.19.11 at 6:52 pm

#104 Moneta on 02.19.11 at 1:40 pm

“1)Ford won top overall quality beating out Toyota for 2011.
2)Koreans are eating everybodies lunch even Toyota and Honda.
3)China is 15-20 yrs. away from importing a mainstream automotive product to N. America.

But I agree with the premise of no auto pact with Asia. They can open more trans-plants” here if they want into our market.

#141 S.B. on 02.19.11 at 6:56 pm

I just read that Intel is building a $5b manufacturing plant in the Phoenix, AZ suburb of Chandler. This is good news for local house/lan prices I guess? I wonder if Canadians vultched in this arwe.

#142 jess on 02.19.11 at 7:18 pm

Yeah, run health care like a businessman

Scott is a millionaire and the former CEO of the nation’s largest for-profit hospital chain, Columbia/HCA. Shortly after he stepped down, the company paid the largest fine for Medicare fraud ever assessed. He won the governor’s race by running as an outsider — spending some $70 million of his own money.

=

Columbia/HCA fraud case detailsOn March 19, 1997, investigators from the FBI, the Internal Revenue Service and the Department of Health and Human Services served search warrants at Columbia/HCA facilities in El Paso and on dozens of doctors with suspected ties to the company.[18]

Following the raids, the Columbia/HCA board of directors forced Scott to resign as Chairman and CEO.[19] He was paid $9.88 million in a settlement. He also left owning 10 million shares of stock worth over $350 million.[20][21][22]

In 1999, Columbia/HCA changed its name back to HCA, Inc.

In settlements reached in 2000 and 2002, Columbia/HCA plead guilty to 14 felonies and agreed to a $600+ million fine in the largest fraud settlement in US history. Columbia/HCA admitted systematically overcharging the government by claiming marketing costs as reimbursable, by striking illegal deals with home care agencies, and by filing false data about use of hospital space. They also admitted fraudulently billing Medicare and other health programs by inflating the seriousness of diagnoses and to giving doctors partnerships in company hospitals as a kickback for the doctors referring patients to HCA. They filed false cost reports, fraudulently billing Medicare for home health care workers, and paid kickbacks in the sale of home health agencies and to doctors to refer patients. In addition, they gave doctors “loans” never intending to be repaid, free rent, free office furniture, and free drugs from hospital pharmacies.[3][4][5][6][7]

In late 2002, HCA agreed to pay the U.S. government $631 million, plus interest, and pay $17.5 million to state Medicaid agencies, in addition to $250 million paid up to that point to resolve outstanding Medicare expense claims.[23] In all, civil law suits cost HCA more than $2 billion to settle, by far the largest fraud settlement in US history.[24]

wikipedia

===========
NHS cuts: managers in the line of fireAs many as 50,000 people could be made unemployed by the NHS over the next four years, with staff in senior positions most at risk. But to what extent will managers’ transferable skills be in demand, asks Andrew Cole
========
NHS hospitals begin axing frontline staff despite government pledge
17 Feb 2011: Two major hospitals shed hundreds of jobs despite repeated government pledges to protect NHS services

#143 Kitchener1 on 02.19.11 at 7:20 pm

#102 Mikey the Realtor

LOL buddy, keep telling your clients that bullshit if you want too and if you are indeed a real bona fide realtor and not some troll on here.

Its pretty much a done deal in Waterloo, look at Oshawa to see what happened to their “student rental market”. Look at the icx.ca and mls.ca listings, a lot of seasoned pro investors are scrambling to sell their properties now, before the changes take effect. I have this on good authority from two buddies in the RE investing business.

Here is a fact– towns/cities are strapped for cash. They will hire an additional couple of by law officers to enforce these regs. Oshawa did and so did London. These new changes will bring in new revunue, never mind enforcement will pay for at least 3-4 additional by law enforcement personal and still make a huge return.

FYI, Mikey, take a look at the REIN forums, RE folks, RE investors are scared shitless of the changes, they are lobbying hard to change the cities mind.

So please Mikey, spare me the nonsense when your ilk are running scared, go ahead and tell your clients what ever you want, but dont spead your bullshit on this blog.

#144 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 02.19.11 at 7:34 pm

Beware the Idiots of March!

And of all the other months too. They’re everywhere…

#145 (low density) Sam on 02.19.11 at 7:34 pm

EW is total cr*p.
________
#105 Brian on 02.19.11 at 1:44 pm
I am a big fan of Elliott wave
________
So when the Elliot Wave hits you it’ll be a case of the bullsh*t hitting the rotating impeller

#146 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 02.19.11 at 7:46 pm

A brilliant suggestion…

Yesterday I shared with all ya all my idea that we should stamp out a new dollar coin with a maple leaf on it and start calling our dollar coin the maple instead of the loonie. Much better branding.

The two would have two maple leafs and I hope we can call it the deuce or the double or just the two, or the double maple, anything but twonie.

Hey, how about a four dollar coin called the double double? just kidding we can leave that to Tim Hortons

The existing Canadian gold mapleleaf coin would be known as the golden maple.

We might even want to officially rename the dollar as the maple. It’s confusing to have a currency with the same name as the U.S. dollar better to have our own name.

I should really be paid a huge fee for this idea but I throw it out there for free. Well if you all insist I will agree to my head on the one side of the coin instead of Liz’s

Seriously folks, our currency is known as the loonie! What kind of idotic branding is that?

#147 Devore on 02.19.11 at 8:01 pm

#125 David

If you think people have not changed in their attitudes towards debt, you are not only wrong, but as someone who reads this blog, you are amazingly incapable of learning.

You got all that about me from a couple of sentences?

If people “back then” had free money shoved at them left and right by lenders, they’d be doing the exact same thing.

#148 bridgepigeon on 02.19.11 at 8:20 pm

BrianT
With Obama’s food czar a former Monsanto exec., who now use Xe (formerly Blackwater) as their intel arm we stand less chance now to rid ourselves of CSS. The whole game is rigged against us. 8 years to become a doctor gives one such a limited knowledge of basic nutrition it’s frightening. Go visit someone dying of cancer in a hospital and see what they feed them.
Everyone should turn off the TV for one evening and do a little research on Monsanto. Check out their new, barely tested, GMO’s their forcibly releasing on the planet.
But wait, it gets worse. China now is producing rice made from plastic. Nosti, get on it…

#149 CrowdedElevatorFartz on 02.19.11 at 8:47 pm

Hmmmmm, Chinese built cars in 15 years eh?
Is that before or after they invade Taiwan ( the US has military agreements with the former Chinese island so get ready.)and start WWIII ?
Sorry but I wont buy any vehicle unless it’s “Made in Canada”… plenty of Hondas , toyotas, fords to choose from.
And a pox on all you Canadian shoppers who drive across the “line ” to the US to purchase cheaper goods. You like medicare? Well its paid partially by TAXES.

#150 john m on 02.19.11 at 8:56 pm

#45 BC Bring Cash on 02.19.11 at 1:42 am

The Globe & Mail reported today that ” House prices to rise with inflation, CMHC says….<<<< personally i am getting a VERY bad feeling about CMHC's finances??

#151 Pat on 02.19.11 at 9:28 pm

#71 Moneta:

” We are selling low added value products to import high added value products.”

Exactly!

#152 john m on 02.19.11 at 9:28 pm

#115 Devore on 02.19.11 at 2:53 pm

#33 Radio Free OJ

I agree with the general sentiment, just nit picking. CMHC is not costing tax payers anything at this time.

Also, CMHC would be responsible for the deficit between mortgage principle and house liquidation value. This could be a substantial amount, but it would not be 100% of the insured amount. While they may fail a catastrophic stress test, the situation is not as dire as it may appear…..Think not?…CMHC has an income of about 3% of the value of a mortgage..so for example on every 100 thousand they have covered they have been paid$3,000 a mere correction of 3% they have already lost their entire commision (…also most people in arrears go for months without making a payment before they are evicted..then the house sits vacant for another few months while the paperwork is in order for them to sell it (ever tour one?..broken water pipes,vandalized,overgrown lawns etc) in a good market it has already lost 20% of its value (how many hits like this do you honestly think CMHC can handle?)…CMHC has survived and banked on housing prices rising…even a partial meltdown like the US has had and they are toast..in fact in some areas real estate has already had a 25% correction..so for every $100,000 CMHC has guaranteed in those areas they already have a potential loss of $21,000+ and thats before the carrying costs which will probably double that loss……..It seems damn scary to me..

#153 Pat on 02.19.11 at 9:38 pm

@ #43 Dubble,

I see no problem with changing careers in your early 30’s. I know many people who have done it. Also, I think professors usually like mature students (I do). Being male shouldn’t be an issue either.

However, personally I would never consider nursing for the mere fact that it is a career with a ceiling, always second class behind the doctor.

#154 Thetruth on 02.19.11 at 9:44 pm

Garth,

Do you think these numbers in this link impact housing in the major cities to any extent? Yes, I know that cheap credit and transferring risk to CMHC are major components but look at the (non-eroneous) numbers.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/the-economists/canadas-immigration-policy-who-is-on-the-guest-list/article1913178/

And before you write your next book, consider this: For some reason, temp workers in vancouver are flying to montreal to get their work permits renewed and then come back… so much for provincial immigration programs. The bulk of the new comers are coming to Toronto and vancouver using other provinces as a springboard… This is a part of what maintains high demand imo!

#155 Smoking Man on 02.19.11 at 9:52 pm

First!!!

#156 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.19.11 at 10:03 pm


#148 bridgepigeon — “Nosti, get on it…” / On my way!
*
Spain The revolution that started in Iceland has gone viral. Wisconsin Prelude to America? Armenia Different place, same story. Who Remembers Kent State? Bahrain “The people of Bahrain don’t “hate us because we are free”; they hate us because nearly every bullet, tank, and gun being used against them is stamped “Made in the USA”!” wrh.com.

Hidden Inflation Wiped some UK pensions clean.

Gas Companies and ‘quakes. Not sure if this is accurate, but everything has a scapegoat, a fall-guy.

Higher Inflation “That mandate involves protecting the biggest investment and commercial banks on Wall Street at the expense of the American people.”

Bubbling Over As pretty much everything else in the world is boiling, WW3 looms larger (see map of the ME, where the Suez is and the 5th US Navy Fleet is there), a lava lake in the Hawaiian chain is another aspect.

US Food “As reported on 2 February, 2010 at:

http://www.alternet.org/food/145503/why_has_the_fda_allowed_a_drug_marked_%27not_safe_for_use_in_humans%27_to_be_fed_to_livestock_right_before_slaughter

“Why Has the FDA Allowed a Drug Marked ‘Not Safe for Use in Humans’ to Be Fed to Livestock Right Before Slaughter?” wrh.com.

Real People Facebook and Twitter are companies; software has created computer people. Am I real?

2012 Budget Pits the middle and lower classes vs. Wall St., courtesy Obama.

Ultimate Hedge Gold?

Reckless “Well, it turns out that if you are a member of the IMF, you are specifically prohibited from having gold-backed currency.” Do the Rothschilds not have a few members on the IMF board? See this — 56 mins. The House of Rothschilds.

Assange Wikileaks was created by the CIA – Soros – Zionists.

Wrong Country “It is obvious that Israel and the US Government are trying to start a major war with Iran to distract everybody from the growing global revolution and the looting of our wealth to save Wall Street.” wrh.com.

#157 Jeff Smith on 02.19.11 at 10:04 pm

>#36 Zenith on 02.19.11 at 12:43 am
>
> Some posters think that real estate prices in their
>city are going down…
>…only in their own minds…

In fact I don’t give a damn either way. I am a spectator comfortable sitting in my sofa with a bag of popcorn. Doesn’t matter if the hero dies or the villain dies. You get to watch a fine movie anyway. lol

#158 David on 02.19.11 at 10:09 pm

#147 Devore….so to summarize your point: If people had lived in a world like the one we are in now, they would have been a lot like we are now. I guess there’s only one way to argue that entirely circular hypothetical argument: They didn’t, and they weren’t.

Humour me: Personal bankruptcy today is accepted by the mainstream of society as an attractive financial solution. This is in stark contrast to generations previous, when it was viewed as an absolute last resort, stemming mainly from a higher sense of personal responsibility, feelings of shame and embarassment, and admission of failure.
Is this comparison:
a) totally false;
b) a very good example of how attitudes about debt have changed; or
c) incomprehensible to me, I don’t get it.

But please keep this up…I’m amused.

#159 Roial1 on 02.19.11 at 10:11 pm

#63 phinny on 02.19.11 at 8:59 am

Hang in there, though. Alberta is the place to be.

May be so, BUT where I live, (Middle of Vancouver Island) the houseing industry is being driven by——————-In-comming ———–

Albertans.

#160 Patiently Waiting on 02.19.11 at 10:12 pm

What Onni is not telling the buyers is that if they pay off the mortgage 5 years earlier they will save about $158,000 in mortgage payments (based on the $700,000 example). Also, because the vast majority of home purchases involve financing, the price of the homes will very likley drop by a similar amount to the reduction in borrowing power. in the case of the $700,000 example this would equate to $63,000 price reduction. So in reality buyers will save (+/-) $221,000 by using the shorter amortization period and waiting for the ensuing price adjustment in the marketplace. In fact there will be some additional savings as well because the the payments using the 30 year amortization will have a slightly greater proportion on principal than interest. Poor sheeple are easy pickings for the Realtor pumpers . . . sheesh . . .

#161 Cooliecat on 02.19.11 at 10:23 pm

First #153 Pat, I am a nurse and have never felt that I was second class behind a Doctor. Doctors and nurses work together in planning care for patients. #43 Dubble, Nursing is a very noble career and pays very well with good benifits I would say go for it! We need more good nurses.

#162 Devil's Advocate on 02.19.11 at 10:40 pm

Nothing new here.

Oh look a squirrel…

#163 comfortably numb on 02.19.11 at 10:42 pm

It was just announced on the local news that the much discussed Bosa building in Burnaby sold out today. Apparently 600 buyers for 200 units. Also was reported that the first day sales at the Olympic Village site was good. When will the madness end !

#164 TheOne on 02.19.11 at 10:49 pm

The anecdotes flying around Vancouver about rich foreigners are getting more than a little wearing. I want to know if anyone has some hard data on the prevalence of ‘rich Asian’ buyers in Vancouver.

The fact that buyers of one particular ethnicity dominates the market means nothing unless we can show that they are NOT reliant on financing as other locals are and/or that they have disporportionate wealth/earnings.

If anyone has DATA on this (an anecdote and a toonie will get you a coffee) please share.

http://bit.ly/fhigSs

#165 Timing is Everything on 02.19.11 at 11:03 pm

#74 Moneta – said “There will be a shock.”

Kinda like earthquake insurance [CMHC]…when ‘it’ hits, the insurance companies will probably go bankrupt anyway. It will just be too big a shock for them to absorb. We will all have to bail (out) some water wrt RE…sooner or later.

#166 Sad Canadian on 02.19.11 at 11:16 pm

Fact:
Canada is now the fattest country in the G20, exceeding the U.S.

Fact:
Canada has more household indebtedness than The U.S.

Fact:
Canada has a larger carbon footprint per capita of all countries in the G20 (and it isn’t because it is cold there. It is hot in the U.S. and Australia and they use a shit-ton of air conditioning). So much for the b.s. “green” argument of Canadians.

Fact:
Canada produces more waste per capita of all countries in the G20. Also adding to the fat-ass factor of Canadians.

Fact:
Canada has ridden the subprime lending wave longer than all other countries in the G20, excluding Australia

Fact:
Canada’s real estate has been in decline for well over six months, but due to lack of transparency in your country there is more b.s. being pushed on consumers by the government and CREA

Opinion-soon-to-be-Fact:
Canada’s real estate will suffer a worser fate than the U.S. or Europe in the forthcoming years.

Outcome:
Canada has become the most hypocritical country on the face of the Earth as is evidenced by all of the above. What once we prided ourselves in being, we have actually become the antithesis of it. Canada has become the butt of the joke and the punchline for much of the world. I’d recommend no more finger pointing at other nations by us Canadians. We have a very long road ahead of us until our own mess is cleaned.

I am no longer proud to be Canadian as we’ve certainly lost our way, and probably more so than even the Americans. After all, what the hell would we be without them? Simply put, we are quickly becoming a global embarrassment. In fact, it is that pride that is bringing us to our knees.

I speak with many of my friends in the U.S., and they are quiet about Canada. But, when I ask them a pointed question concerning their take on our situation, they have no problem offering up their opinions. Sad thing is, I never disagree with what they have to say. They’re far more informed than what we even know. We try way to hard in this country, but we do NOT deliver.

Americans view us as “naive,” “annoying,” “uneducated,” “immature,” and “hypocritical.” The Europeans think we’re the WORST travelers and most annoying tourists ever. That’s sad to think that AMERICANS feel this way about us too, isn’t it? You may disagree, but it speaks volumes about where we’ve come from and where we are headed.

#167 Dubble on 02.19.11 at 11:24 pm

Thank you to all who responded, I value your opinions and it is good to hear that others have changed careers sucessfully.

I have a bit of work to do. I will need to take Math B30 and Chem 30 prior to getting into the program, so I will be a busy bee between working full time and taking night classes.

Thanks for the reassurance, much appreciated. ;)

#168 ballingsford on 02.19.11 at 11:26 pm

141 S.B. on 02.19.11 at 6:56 pm
I just read that Intel is building a $5b manufacturing plant in the Phoenix, AZ suburb of Chandler. This is good news for local house/lan prices I guess? I wonder if Canadians vultched in this arwe.
***********

Hopefully not. Phoenix will soon be reverting back to the desert once they run out of water. Whoops, they pretty well already have.

#169 Boombust on 02.19.11 at 11:39 pm

re: Nursing

“…always second class behind the doctor.”

What a stupid thing to say.

#170 Devore on 02.19.11 at 11:46 pm

#152 john m

even a partial meltdown like the US has had and they are toast..in fact in some areas real estate has already had a 25% correction..so for every $100,000 CMHC has guaranteed in those areas they already have a potential loss of $21,000+

We would only see that kind of charge to CMHC if all their mortgages were 100% LTV, with no equity built up, and 100% default rate.

I’m not trying to paint a rosy picture of CMHC financial situation, but on the other hand it’s not nearly as dire as some make it out to be.

#171 Moneta on 02.19.11 at 11:51 pm

Dubble on 02.19.11 at 1:25 am
——
I know schools are in dire need of male teachers and working on closing the gap. Perhaps the same thing would occur in nursing?

#172 wetcoaster on 02.19.11 at 11:58 pm

Looks like the hype job worked and the Sovereign did sell out. Goes to show a thousand Asians can be that stupid.

Of course Global pumps it to the max, they never did investigate it like they said they would, bad for business ya know.

#173 Dubble on 02.20.11 at 12:04 am

I also want to point something out to the realtors in the crowd. The only thing that makes a career change possible for me is the fact that I have rented my way through the bubble.

In the past 6 years, I have successfully purchased a vehicle, invested money for a rainy day, and gotten all of the furniture/electronics/appliances I need.

I have very little debt. With a few cutbacks and a little penny pinching I will be debt free in 4 months.

My current job pays well, but how long can someone stay in sales? The cycle of “Zero to Hero” every few months is mentally draining. In the time I have been in this role, I have seen 2 of my coworkers with the same responsibilities fired. I have seen 5 members of the Sales team quit. The Sales Manager was fired less than a month ago.

I have been with the Sales department for 2 years now and I feel 10 years older. One would think that such turnover would occur in the span of 10 years. We are only a team of 11 people.

I often wonder what it would have been like if I had stayed “downstairs” in the customer service role. I earned less salary, but the commissions and salary combined were only 5k less than I’m making now. I just dont think the corporate life is for me. The only prospects with similar pay in my line of work are other sales jobs.

I imagine that many realtors must feel the same way sometimes. I wonder how many will soon face the dilemma of changing careers.

Thank you for the support everyone.
I’ll keep you posted on my progress in becoming an RN.

#174 Behavioral Finance on 02.20.11 at 12:05 am

Are these figures correct? If so that is amazing…

Mortgage Securitization has accounted for 90.5% of all growth in total Canadian mortgage credit outstanding since 2007.

The Canadian mortgage securitizaton market has grown from

100 billion in 2006
130 billion in 2007
to 295 billion by mid-June 2009
CHMC plans to expand securitization of debt to 370 billion by the end of 2009 as per the Government of Canada request.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Mortgage_and_Housing_Corporation

#175 Cellar Dwellar on 02.20.11 at 12:14 am

@#153
No No I”M FIRST !!!!!!!!

#176 Dubble on 02.20.11 at 12:19 am

To #67 Phinny,

I’m choosing nursing because of the stabilty and demand for male nurses. Many countries will pay to relocate you, and offer many perks to have you relocate there. I have spent most of my life in SK.

I have worked as a roofer, a fabricator at Cover All, and managed a cell phone store. I later went back to school and took a 1.5 year course in business administration. This is how I wound up in my current role.

I want to do something that matters. I want the stability that nursing offers. This is how I decided on being an RN.

#177 Timing is Everything on 02.20.11 at 12:42 am

#166 Sad Canadian – said “shit-ton”

Is that a technical term for ‘exchange of carbon credits’?
Or does it have something to do with ‘green-house gases’?

#178 Timing is Everything on 02.20.11 at 12:51 am

#177 Timing is Everything

#166 Sad Canadian – said “shit-ton”

Oh ya, the correct term is ‘shit-tonne’…We are in Canada, right? I think Americans use shit-tons.

#179 Pat on 02.20.11 at 1:20 am

#169 Boombust,

Oops, did I hit a nerve, or you are exhibiting a knee-jerk reaction?

#180 Timing is Everything on 02.20.11 at 1:21 am

Garth, Just in case the Hummer ‘won’t quite cut it’….

http://www.usedvictoria.com/classified-ad/Armored-Bus-reduced-price_14216436

#181 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.20.11 at 1:44 am


#148 bridgepigeon — Re: Chinese plastic rice. Plenty of links, these are two of the better ones — One and a Two.

5:02 clip The Very Odd Couple — Luciano Pavarotti and B.B. King with The Thrill Is Gone. Great tune!

4Closure Map across the US. Not pretty. Plus What goes up etc., etc.

Oh Dear “If the elite are moving their physical gold you know something is up. Are you paying attention to the New Madrid . . .” plus other stuff.

Sarkozy One man talks, but talk is cheap.

Countries with the largest gold reserves.

Color Revolutions Going worldwide.

The Toilet In Iraq Has to be another war to join in somewhere!

We’re Being Watched As if we didn’t already know that. HI TOOTS!

Portrait of a lady who bought down some of China’s elite, proving yet again that men are suckers for punishment!

Yellowstone is actually a conspiracy theory — see for yourselves!

2015 China making one million electric vehicles, when a plethora of us try to dump RE to pay for retirement.

Sex, Oil, Chaos and Corruption Garth’s nightly bonanza-filled orgy-fests!

Tyche Four times the size of Jupiter hiding in the solar system.

Advice Not if Yellowstone burps. Plus — Doomsday Seed Vault in the Arctic.

Golden Pickles a better investment than the US$?

#182 Devore on 02.20.11 at 1:48 am

#158 David

Humour me: Personal bankruptcy today is accepted by the mainstream of society as an attractive financial solution. This is in stark contrast to generations previous, when it was viewed as an absolute last resort, stemming mainly from a higher sense of personal responsibility, feelings of shame and embarassment, and admission of failure.

The reason bankruptcy is an “attractive” financial solution (it is not, btw, but I will humor you), is because the consequences of it are less severe due to changed bankruptcy laws and availability of credit. Once credit gets tight, bankruptcy will be a much less attractive option, because you will not be able to again easily obtain the credit you are depending on to maintain your lifestyle. Hence, it will be a much more humbling and shaming experience.

You can continue this all you like. Fact is, if our parents or grandparents could borrow money at 2-2.5% up to the value of highly leveraged assets, and which loans were explicitly backed 100% by the government (not the lender) against loss, they would find themselves in pretty much the same situation we have now. For a reference of sorts, see the 1920s.

When there are consequences to reckless behaviour again, you will find people suddenly becoming much more responsible.

#183 This is Wonderland on 02.20.11 at 1:50 am

149 CrowdedElevatorFartz

Sorry but I wont buy any vehicle unless it’s “Made in Canada”… plenty of Hondas , toyotas, fords to choose from.

Made in Canada? Don’t you mean assembled. I’m betting there is very little product in your vehicle that is actually made in Canada or the US for that matter.

#184 Mike on 02.20.11 at 1:56 am

#47 BigAl (Original) on 02.19.11 at 2:04 am

The problem is that everyone around these kids teach them they’re infallible, that they’re super-kids, that they deserve the absolute best that life has to offer the moment they graduate university.

I’ve said this before on this blog, but it is a dangerous trend. The business and work world is handing new/recent graduates top-paying top-tier jobs on a silver platter.

—————————————–

No offense, but you’re an idiot. Straight up.

“top paying, top tier” jobs don’t go to new graduates. It makes no sense to overpay someone who has no experience.

A new grad engineer will make 50-60% of what someone with 5-10 years experience does. It’s the same in most industries.

New grads big advantage is that they’re young and cheap.

#185 Devore on 02.20.11 at 1:59 am

Maybe it’s just the way you look at human behaviour.

My view is that people (be it in general, or specifically, such as politicians, corporations, realtors, police, etc) will do what they are allowed to do and to get away with.

If they are allowed to be financially reckless, then they will do so, so long as it is perceived to benefit them. If they are limited to certain prudent behaviours, then they will do that.

It is the idea behind such sayings as “we get the government we deserve”. We let politicians and bureaucrats do certain things, and then reward them with pensions, benefits, power, monopoly and re-elections. So naturally they do what they are allowed to get away with.

The rules and parameters change. The people stay the same, they just play within the sandbox they are given.

#186 SafetyBear on 02.20.11 at 3:01 am

The 35 year mortgage is gone. Yeah, right. Until it comes back. And it will, like dirty laundry. Eventually, some sunny day it’ll be back because never say never.

Those following the Aussie market will see that the Australian banks have launched a phony war on each other to clamor for those filthy sub-prime readies. Anyone who thought that they’ve seen a bubble….in the US…In Japan…in Canada….has not seen diddly saskatchewan until they’ve taken a look at what’s happening down under. It’s a tragedy. And. It’s. Unfolding. Ridiculously. Slowly.

So, still time to get on the train in Canada and Australia. In the words of Mr T “I pity the fool”.

I’m just a sucker like the rest of them Garth. I’d love to buy a house. But it’s looking like a long, long wait the best part of a decade at this rate. And y’know, the cold expectations of the heavily indebted wieghs heavier still.

#187 SafetyBear on 02.20.11 at 3:03 am

@173 “I have successfully purchased a vehicle, invested money for a rainy day, and gotten all of the furniture/electronics/appliances I need.”

Want, not need. Read Affluenza.

#188 Jordan on 02.20.11 at 3:36 am

Well this is discouraging:

http://www.REALTOR.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10334794&PidKey=1664599934

#189 Jody on 02.20.11 at 3:54 am

Wow, Trev and his buddy are really out to lunch, I wonder if they have mullets.

Some good videos to wake up any sheeple you know.

Peter Schiff, this guy was right, over and over and over again:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aq1N70vym1g&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWYMWL6xs3E&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n3g5lUgkWk&feature=related

#190 Moneta on 02.20.11 at 8:34 am

Thank you for the support everyone.
I’ll keep you posted on my progress in becoming an RN.
——–
Canada probably won’t be able to afford more doctors so chances are it’s going the route of the Nurse Practitioner. Of course doctors are going to fight this tooth and nail.

The nurse of today already knows a million times more stuff than the doctor of not so long ago, so we know that running our system more cheaply involves more nurses.

The big question is whether we’ll end up with too many nurses but maybe not. Maybe the US will keep on snatching them up with their new “universal” health care.

#191 Sail1 on 02.20.11 at 9:07 am

#166 Sad Canadian

I am no longer proud to be Canadian

I’m sure you know where the border is.

#192 David on 02.20.11 at 9:08 am

#162 Well, look what the cat dragged in! The I’m-better-than-this-and-got-better-things-to-do for-the-rest-of-my-life guy.

Somehow, life was still worth living without you, so don’t hang around on our account. No, really….go enjoy some more of that realtor’s dream life you told us about, ad nauseum.

#193 Ex-Cowtown on 02.20.11 at 9:20 am

To Dubble:

Don’t get hung up on working only in a hospital environment. A male nurse friend of mine worked in a remote area of Northern BC and loved it. There are also a lot of jobs in the industrial/ Occupational Health &Safety part of the industry. Fly into Fort McMoney, two in two out, big $$$.

#194 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.20.11 at 9:50 am

@ #174 Behavioral Finance:

If you find $290B in morgage insurance shocking, then make sure you aren’t holding a hot coffee when you learn that CMHC actually insures over $500 Billion in mortgages as of mid-2010.

#195 SAD on 02.20.11 at 10:06 am

TO: #57 Arcturus on 02.19.11 at 5:13 am

You know things are getting bad when even the CMHC is out there trying to pump up real estate sales.

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Edmonton+home+prices+going+CMHC/4303139/story.html

They’re forecasting record levels in 2012 while many of the condos I’ve been eyeing in the area have dropped by 20k over the last 40 days.

Yup that is called self interest. CMHC would not want to see a reduced valuation.

#196 robert james on 02.20.11 at 10:36 am

Good for you,,Dubble,,you are doing the right thing.. Nursing is a good thing, because for one thing,,you can get a job and for another,you can probably work anywhere if you want to travel. etc.. Health care is where it is at.. My youngest son went to BCIT and took the X ray course a few years back and now has a well paying job with security here in the Okanagan which is really saying something because there are very few real jobs here.. I think the deciding factor was when he worked at Wall Mart in Regina for a few months which was great..LOL He started walking ,,going to the library, and quit smoking mainly because he couldn`t afford to drive his car,,couldn`t afford to go out and couldn`t afford to buy smokes when he worked at Wally World.. Also, being a male X ray tech is like being a male nurse I am told because there are times when extra muscle is needed for moving patients , etc. Good luck!!

#197 David on 02.20.11 at 11:08 am

#182 Again, you amaze.

The root of your argument is stated in the general premise is that people will do “whatever they can get away with”. Clearly this concept is wrong…one only needs to notice the existence of jails to see that some people clearly do more than they can get away with.

Notwithstanding this hole in your basic theory of human behavior, you clearly imply that entering into a mortgage agreement is, AND ALWAYS HAS BEEN, a pre-meditated attempted larceny by borrowers.

Wow. There’s no debating someone who uses the point ot be proven as being a self-evident truth. You are being intellectually dishonest, so I’m done.

#198 Markey on 02.20.11 at 11:17 am

Hey, Phinny #67 – With climate change we’re running out of ice floes for our oldsters.

#199 Junius on 02.20.11 at 11:25 am

#185 Devore,

You said, “My view is that people (be it in general, or specifically, such as politicians, corporations, realtors, police, etc) will do what they are allowed to do and to get away with.”

Generally I agree. However we have seen a number of factors that contribute to ethical or unethical behaviour. Most of these are more at work than ever these days.

The first of which is simply environment and “community standards.” Ethical behaviour is only present in an environment where leadership acts this way and standards are enforced through moral persuasion and, if necessary, legal action.

These standards have fallen to shockingly low standards in our financial industries. The notion that “everyone is doing it” pervades the system from the top down. In Real Estate we see this weekly at the top levels of the industry as they release on BS set of stats or predictions and therefore it permeates down to the developer who hires stunt performers to cue at a new development.

The other factors is “situational ethics” as it relates to people in corporations. People can easily become highly unethical when acting in the name of any group or organization including a nation state. The classic is the soldier who is asked to put aside his society morals and kill for country. However this dichotomy plays itself out most routinely in the name of corporate interests.

Most of the financial system today is run through computers. Corporations are mindlessly driven to maintain strong quarterly reports at any cost in order to maintain and increase valuations in the one click financial world. Investors have stopped investing in companies but instead invest in trends and trade information. The average time a stock is held has gone from several years or more in the 1960s to a few months now. Large hedge funds with billions of dollars usually average less than 60 days for individual stock holdings. This is madness.

This problem played out most spectacularly in the Mortgage Crisis. Traditional bank lenders practiced the “know your client” rule and were responsible for individual lenders and their loan portfolio. However the securitization of the mortgages changed this and turned individual loans into packaged product. This changed the previously responsible loan officer into a drug dealer because it removed responsibility from his desk. The relationship changed with the environmental switch.

This is why Canada will face a similar crisis. The CMHC removed moral responsibility from the banks and mortgage lenders. They made the switch, changed the responsibility and created an environment for unethical behaviour to thrive. We now see the results which will become more clear over the coming years.

#200 Dan in Victoria on 02.20.11 at 11:37 am

David @ 192
Maybe we are his “Stargate Project.”

#201 Junius on 02.20.11 at 11:40 am

#166 Sad Canadian,

You said, “Canada has become the most hypocritical country on the face of the Earth as is evidenced by all of the above. What once we prided ourselves in being, we have actually become the antithesis of it. Canada has become the butt of the joke and the punchline for much of the world.”

Didn’t you get the memo? We are the Best Place on Earth (or at least parts of us)! LOL.

The human proclivity for self deception and organizing our beliefs around what we want to believe as opposed to dealing with reality is in full view in today’s Canada.

The smokescreen being thrown up by our current gov’t which is reinforced by our terrible MSM continues to drive the overall belief that it is different here.

I find myself with mixed reactions on the coming elections. One part of me wants to see the Cons kicked out for their incredibly reckless behaviour of the past few years. Another part of me hopes for Con minority so they have to deal (or try to) with the problems and the mess can squarely be pinned on their shoulders. A Con majority I simply cannot see having any good result.

#202 Dodged-A-Bullit-in Alberta on 02.20.11 at 11:51 am

Greetings: #185 [Devore]

“The rules and parameters change. The people stay the same, they just play within the sandbox they are given.”

The one qualifer to this is when it comes to the fraud and corruption we have seen in the financial world resulting in the destruction of security for millions of Americans and Canadians. The sandbox has been filled with cat shit!!!

#203 Boombust on 02.20.11 at 11:52 am

“#169 Boombust,

Oops, did I hit a nerve, or you are exhibiting a knee-jerk reaction?”

How do you know I’m not a doctor? A-hole.

#204 john m on 02.20.11 at 11:58 am

#170 Devore on 02.19.11 at 11:46 pm

I’m not trying to paint a rosy picture of CMHC financial situation, but on the other hand it’s not nearly as dire as some make it out to be. —————-I certainly hope you are right…. IMO it takes a greater fool to borrow the kind of money some have with next to nothing down on a depreciating asset…but it takes an even greater fool to insure it… CMHC’s whole survival since day one has been dependent on prices rising in real estate and people having adequate down payments and shorter terms (increasing equity). Personally as an investor its not something i would touch…would you?

#205 Love this Blog on 02.20.11 at 12:10 pm

#122 Cato,

Very well said.

#206 Cellar Dwellar on 02.20.11 at 12:17 pm

@ #162 Devil Advocate
I knew you couldnt stay away !!!!!!!!

#207 Sad Canadian on 02.20.11 at 12:39 pm

At #178: Timing is Everything… I am originally from Alberta, and I moved to Phoenix AZ 32 months ago. I love it here. You should come down here. It is very nice! Some good deals around here too depending where you go.

#208 Cellar Dwellar on 02.20.11 at 12:48 pm

@ #166 sad canadian
I agree whole heartedly, The uniformed, unfit, Ugly Canadian is no myth.
Time will tell.

#209 No crystal ball... on 02.20.11 at 12:50 pm

Dubble,

I agree that there will always be a need for nurses, and you can make decent money nursing (especially with overtime in hospitals or working for an agency). But do it because you really have the desire to help people – not just because of job stability.

Nursing is like teaching. People should go into these professions because they have a genuine caring nature, because it can be very emotionally and physically demanding.

I am sure that many of us have encountered some nurses and teachers in our lifetimes who were a discredit to their field, and should not have been there. But the ones who really cared, made the experience so much better.

People that only do their job for the paycheck ultimately end up hating it, and it shows.

#210 David on 02.20.11 at 12:58 pm

#200 Dan – As a real-TOR (that’s how they like to say it, for some reason) D.A. is an ethical professional whose word is his bond.

Unless ‘forever’ now means a couple of weeks, this bond is now in default….but it’s got a poetic symmetry to it, don’t you agree, that this goofball’s word is as trustworthy as all those goofy CMHC mortgage agreements on which he exists?

#211 john m on 02.20.11 at 12:59 pm

CIBC Up to 7% Cash Back Offer

This offer gives you cash back based on your mortgage amount and term, and is available if you are approved for a 3, 4, 5, 7 or 10-year closed, fixed-rate residential mortgage*. For example, if you have a $100,000 mortgage and select a 10-year term, you will receive 7% cash back, or $7,000!
CIBC Up to 7% Cash Back Offer could be for you if you:

* Want to renovate, furnish or decorate your home
* Would like to take a dream vacation
* Want to prepare for any unexpected moving expenses
* Want to make an additional lump sum payment on your mortgage
* Need money for a special upcoming event such as an anniversary, wedding or child on the way
* Want to renew an existing mortgage early, or transfer your mortgage from another financial institution and have prepayment costs to pay
* Want to purchase investments, open an RESP or make an RRSP contribution

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Saves you money

* You get up to 7% cash back based on your mortgage amount and term1, to spend however you choose
* This cash back amount is completely tax-free **
* There are no cash maximums – the larger your mortgage, the more cash back you receive
<<<<<<<<<<<< pretty sweet eh! And lucky us (the taxpayers) are insuring this kind of nonsense…verrrrrrrrrry scary!

#212 wetcoaster on 02.20.11 at 1:07 pm

Looks like CMHC has a extremely strong need to keep those free money mortgages rolling out like candy bars on a conveyor belt with all the benefits it doles out at ultimately be our expense.

What do 1800 employees actually do in a day if the so called quickie 1 minute approval system does all the work ? I guess it gives them lots of time to sit around and dream up ideas on how to deflect the Howe Institute and economists with a brain and not a bank related connection.

3 weeks holidays to start and 6 weeks holiday for the long termers ? Looks like one big bloated cash cow doling out the benefits like a unionized government system.

—————————————————————
•Provides its over 1800 employees with a competitive compensation package and incentive pay program which includes individual and corporate incentive awards.

•Offers employees an extensive benefits package with a choice of coverage options, many of which extend into retirement, including a recently introduced retirees dental plan.

•Has options available to help eligible employees balance work and family life by offering three weeks of vacation for new employees and up to a maximum of six weeks annually during their career at CMHC. Offers options depending on circumstances which can include flexible work schedules, family leave, a floater day and other special leave programs.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/ca/ca_001.cfm

#213 Just Another Twit on 02.20.11 at 1:26 pm

LAST!!

#214 Dodged-A-Bullit-in Alberta on 02.20.11 at 1:30 pm

Greetings: #199 [Junius]

In a nutshell, [squirrel talk], you have exactly stated what has happened. Began when Pierre Elliot Trudeau gave the finger to Canadians through the train window. So called “leaders” in business, politics, unions, city government, etc. have been giving us the finger for years. The Odiferious shitstorm in Ottawa presently happening is a good example, lying pricks!!!

#215 dd on 02.20.11 at 1:35 pm

There is no retirement crisis as per Malcolm Hamilton (G&M) only a debt problem.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/lets-talk-investing/retirement-crisis-what-retirement-crisis/article1894186/

#216 infernalmachine on 02.20.11 at 1:39 pm

@ #127 Sid

University was still dead cheap and jobs still didn’t require 8 degrees, and houses still weren’t 6 times income if I’d been born in the 1970s but yes you are correct about the boomers having it even easier. I figure, though, I wouldn’t have wanted to be born any earlier than the 70s and have to deal with the whole “become a housewife” peer pressure crap.

#217 S.B. on 02.20.11 at 1:42 pm

Egypt et al: The West is again funding and arming these “regime changes”, to install US puppet regimes.
Same formula every time: Problem, Reaction, “Solution”.
————————
The Arsenal Against Democracy: US Arms Fuel Bahraini Crackdown

Posted By Jason Ditz On February 18, 2011 @ 7:51 pm In Uncategorized | 6 Comments

A tiny nation with no real security threats, one would have likely been puzzled up until this week at the massive military spending of Bahrain, and its stockpiling of US-made weapons. The crackdowns of the past few days make it clear: these arms were meant to target the public, not some foreign enemy.

Over the years the US has sold Bahrain an enormous collection of weapons, including the F5 Freedom Fighter warplanes that are in the skies now, literally fighting freedom. The tanks that roll through the streets of Manama are M60A3 tanks, made in Detroit in the 1990s, with an historical market out front lauding the plant as the Arsenal of Democracy. The arsenal, it seems, turned on democracy at some point.

Indeed much as the violent crackdowns in Egypt did during their uprising, much of the brutality in Bahrain is also clearly marked “made in America,” where the Obama Administration, determined to see its status as world’s largest weapons maker, has only grown the sales to brutal regimes.

And really, it should have been obvious from the start. Why would Bahrain, an island nation, need scores of heavily armored tanks, if not to turn them on the public? Is not the privilege of being an island nation that you don’t have to worry about heavy armor? Who exactly did American arms dealers believe these tanks would target, and if they knew all along they would be used to crush dissent, how can Congress not be planning massive investigations.

#218 S.B. on 02.20.11 at 2:02 pm

T.O. Bubble Boy: Garth already covered Cityplace Panorama in Toronto (wedged directly beside the Gardiner Expressway) – 30 units on MLS

http://tinyurl.com/5umu86v

– Bloor/Yonge – new Charles St. condos, always 40 units on MLS:

http://tinyurl.com/6hm2y3l

– Fort York Bvld, Bathrust/Lakeshore 53 units on MLS:

http://tinyurl.com/6gwb4vw

how are those Flippers going??

#219 jess on 02.20.11 at 2:04 pm

European Union faces legal action over fraudulent carbon emissions tradingCourt case in Belgium has been brought by TCEI of Italy, which is hoping to recover 267,991 stolen carbon trading permits

Terry Macalister guardian.co.uk, Sunday 20 February 2011 16.04 GMT

….”Some national carbon registries and trading platforms have either refused to participate or been unable to convince EU officials that they have upgraded anti-corruption systems since a fraud – centred on Austria and involving 3.3m EU allowances – halted all “spot” trading from 19 January. Even in those markets where trading has restarted, volumes are very thin because traders remain wary, say industry sources.

“The short-term financial benefits of reopening are far outweighed by the long-term benefits of fully protecting our customers,” said Henrik Hasselknippe, a managing director at the Green Exchange – which is backed by Goldman Sachs and other big investment banks and which has refused to restart trading in its “daily futures” contract.

“We still do not feel we have an overview of the situation. The Austrian government has so far refused to publish a list of missing allowances and we will continue to be worried until they do so,” he added.

The ongoing scandal is an embarrassment for the EU, which regards the scheme as a key tool in the climate change strategy it is trying to encourage other countries to adopt. The “cap and trade” system, launched six years ago, aims to limit greenhouse gas output from 11,000 power and industrial plants.

Austria – one of a number of markets hit by the cyber attacks – says it has tracked down the stolen allowances but has so far declined to make public the serial numbers or confirm it has had them returned. It has cited national data protection laws, while governments across Europe are trying to work out whether companies found to hold stolen allowances – even unwittingly – could be subject to legal action.

#220 McLovin on 02.20.11 at 2:12 pm

#162 that could not have been DA. There is 20 months of inventory in the Okangan he is far too busy to post here.

Further, he would never never break his promise a second time to stop posting. After all he is a REALTOR and we know they always tell the truth!

#221 S.B. on 02.20.11 at 2:14 pm

Forget the Sunday Comics, turn to MLS for a laugh!

SFH in Toronto with a weird 1970’s interior. “Only 930k”! The professional Realtor(r) comments: it is affordable!!?!!?

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10355345&PidKey=-1350741041
“Rare Affordable Detached On Coveted Howland With 197 Foot Deep Lot & Parking. Impeccably Maintained”

#222 Pat on 02.20.11 at 2:20 pm

#203 Boombust wrote:

“How do you know I’m not a doctor? A-hole.”

I wasn’t, but now I am.

#223 Debtfree on 02.20.11 at 2:47 pm

Watching the autocrats of africa and middle east fall is like seeing the magna carta being born .. If only we had the power to put term limits on our autocrats . King steve and his ilk would have to do what they could and then get lost back into the real world . The worst possible thing to have in power are nepotistic career politicians . They are our autocrats.
OH CANADA.

#224 Nemesis on 02.20.11 at 3:03 pm

“The average time a stock is held has gone from several years or more in the 1960s to a few months now…” – [email protected]

Actually, J – you’re off by several orders of magnitude…

“Economist Michael Hudson of the University of Missouri calculated that the average time a stock was held during 2010 was 22 seconds”…

http://tinyurl.com/4znacp8

See also:

http://tinyurl.com/49mzlxq

#225 tf on 02.20.11 at 3:08 pm

Re- #67 Phinny – Changing careers at anytime is admirable if you can manage it financially- although four years of lost income is tough. Having said that, why do you choose nursing? I don’t know if it’s a good career for men. If you are going to have children some day, and you have a son, it may be something he’d not be comfortable with. My brother-in-law is a nurse, and all my brother’s and dad give him a very hard time.

Your brother’s and fathers are the problem, not you’re brother in law. The fact that they are not comfortable with their own masculinity should not preclude other males in your family from entering a viable and financially rewarding career. Can you spell Redneck?

#226 Boogie Man on 02.20.11 at 3:21 pm

Hey 166, Sad canadian!!! You’re the smartest canadian I can recall in two decades. I am an American, and you nailed it. However, if I may add a few things more:

Americans also look at Canadians as delusional, irresponsible 6th graders that never really grew up. And, yes, we really do find you annoying and uneducated, for the most part. We often refer to you as “the misfits in the attic who never get invited to the party.” We also think your government does everything it can to spew propaganda to keep you in the dark and make you feel good about living there (kind of like North Korea). We wouldn’t take it, and we certainly wouldn’t wouldn’t want to live there. For every time I hear a canadian try to tell me why he/she is better, or our country is in the wrong, I can give five reasons back why we’re right and canadians in general are just being hypocrits. No matter how much kicking and screaming you do to get noticed, you’re really immaterial to us at the end of the day. Sorry, but that’s just the way it is.

#227 Mister Obvious on 02.20.11 at 3:27 pm

# 60 (blase)

“With the materials being used, low-skilled labour, and quality control issues, isn’t it a 5,10 or 15 year ticking time bomb for hundreds of thousands of homes built during this run-up? And won’t this add tens of thousands of dollars of debt to the average home-buyer?

You bet. People tend to forget about the ‘leaky condo crisis’ in Vancouver which is still in full swing to this day. I don’t see how they can forget since the landscape is literally dotted with draped complexes undergoing millions in envelope construction.

This is the direct result of building under the delusion that this is the California desert and not a west coast rainforest. The rotten shells of hundreds upon hundreds of stucco condos built in the 80s and 90s are being rebuilt at enormous expense as we speak.

Were any lessons learned? Nope. The construction is just as poor as ever while costs are even highter, both to purchase and to repair later.

What has changed is the appearance of a new batch of young greater fools with no concept of construction standards, only a sense of entitlement to ownership and spot on the perpetual gravy train.

#228 TS on 02.20.11 at 3:53 pm

Interesting CMHC has a bunch of paper due the next two years. I went to find it and found this instead.
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/faq/faq_001.cfm#20
Updating or hiding some facts. Guess we will find out in a few days.

Inactive Content/Contenu inactif

This page is in the process of being created or has temporarily been inactivated.

Cette page n’a pas encore été créée ou est temporairement dormante.

#229 LS on 02.20.11 at 3:54 pm

I think I read in the Globe this week, either CREA or CMHC saying that housing’s going to keep up with inflation this year.

Why yes, it will, and this means it’s going to have to drop 30% – 50% to normalize, as it’s outpaced inflation the past 10 years.

BTW, overheard someone at work this week talking about the rich Asians touring Whiterock in the helicopter. It was kind of funny as they were both oohing and aahing about this and then one said, but why Whiterock and the other said, yeah, kind of weird and then both shrugged it off.

If and when I am in the mood I just say, read Greaterfool.ca. Not sure if anyone does…

————————–

Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth, Analysts Say

Aug 22, 2010 from NY Times – same ‘ol, but a good read!

“The experience we had from the late 1970s to the late 1990s was an aberration,” said Barry Ritholtz of the equity research firm Fusion IQ. “People shouldn’t be holding their breath waiting for it to happen again.”

#230 LS on 02.20.11 at 3:55 pm

Sorry here’s the link:

Housing Fades as a Means to Build Wealth, Analysts Say
Aug 22, 2010 from NY Times – same ‘ol, but a good read!

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/23/business/economy/23decline.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=general

#231 LS on 02.20.11 at 3:57 pm

BTW, the comments in that NYT article are illuminating!

#232 Ronaldo on 02.20.11 at 3:57 pm

http://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-tour-foreclosure-cities-2011-1#20-boise-idaho-1-in-21-homes-in-foreclosure-the-red-dots-show-foreclosures-1 But we’re different here right?

#233 Moneta on 02.20.11 at 4:02 pm

The first of which is simply environment and “community standards.” Ethical behaviour is only present in an environment where leadership acts this way and standards are enforced through moral persuasion and, if necessary, legal action.

——–
Ethics are rules of conduct recognized in respect to a particular group, culture, etc. People follow rules when they bring something to their quality of life or social incusions. Ethics is the glue in society

What are today’s ethics? I’m sure the top 10% don’t have the same as the bottom 90%. The list is assuredly quite long and many rules are probably contradictory.

When rules don’t make sense anymore and people feel like suckers respecting them, ethics go down the tube.

#234 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 02.20.11 at 4:08 pm

JASMINE REVOLUTION; DEMOS ALL OVER:
IT’S BIRTHING PAINS AS A NEW EMPIRE DAWNS

Now the Chinese are getting into the streets to protest what? The US-invented just-in-time economic revolution, begun decades ago that seems to be going sour.

Why? People are tired of being punched, bored and stapled by “the man.”

This is a symptom, nothing more, of an empirical shift from West to East.

And China’s the new big guy on the block, but it has some American baggage to deal with before it gets to be the “new boss”, moving into the corner suite. It needs some janitorial work done first.

Some of the baggage is in the form of the “Jasmine Revolution.”

“China web users call for ‘Jasmine Revolution’ Sun, Feb 20, 2011 AFP

BEIJING – Postings circulating on the Internet have called on disgruntled Chinese to gather on Sunday in public places in 13 major cities to mark the “Jasmine Revolution” spreading through the Middle East.

The calls have apparently led the Chinese government to censor postings containing the word “jasmine” in an attempt to quell any potential unrest.

“We welcome… laid off workers and victims of forced evictions to participate in demonstrations, shout slogans and seek freedom, democracy and political reform to end ‘one party rule’,” one posting said.

Seeing what’s going on in the Middle East including Bahrain, of all the places, the location of the US 5th Fleet in the Persian Gulf and the financial centre of the Gulf, as well, who woulda thunk the locals there would be all up in arms?

It’s all part of the cataclysmic change that CAN , but does not ALWAYS, occur when one empire begins to die and another awaits to move in.

Seeing the US losing its mo-jo, the tired and oppressed masses in the Middle East, China and Wisconsin are rising up, but to what end?

No one knows just yet; but democarcy won’t be the outcome. They must expect just more of the same just-in-time “lifestyle” but with a new more potent boss.

In most of the West’s life-time going back 60 years, the move from the British to the American empires was relatively smooth given close cultural, immigration and other connections.

Not so this latest empire-shift. Read this:

“NEW YORK (Reuters) – Confidential diplomatic cables from the U.S. embassies in Beijing and Hong Kong lay bare China’s growing influence as America’s largest creditor.

As the U.S. Federal Reserve grappled with the aftershocks of financial crisis, the Chinese, like many others, suffered huge losses from their investments in American financial firms (2008)…

The cables, obtained by WikiLeaks, show that escalating Chinese pressure prompted a procession of soothing visits from the U.S.Treasury Department.

In one striking instance, a top Chinese money manager directly asked U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner for a favor…to speed up the approval of its $1.2 billion investment in Morgan Stanley, according to the cables, which were provided to Reuters by a third party.

Although the cables do not mention if Geithner took any action, China’s deal to buy Morgan Stanley shares was announced the very next day.”

This same story also indicates that China and the US are more or less co-financial/trade dependents.

“The cables also indicate a high level of confidence among the Americans that China can’t entirely stop buying U.S. debt, a sentiment shared by most economists who describe the dynamic as a form of mutually assured financial destruction.

But the cables do show that China can and will pull back, with financial repercussions. In the spring of 2009, with U.S.-China financial tensions running especially high, China’s Treasury holdings fell to around $764 billion, down from nearly $900 billion. In July, after tensions between the two nations mostly subsided, its holdings rose to a record $940 billion…”

So China still has not quite come to terms with how to finally stick the fork into its biggest financial louse, the USA.

Meanwhile in Louseland, public sector workers all over the US are starting to get up in arms about potentially losing collective bargaining rights (they’re demonstrating in Wisconsin because the new governor there wants to be more fiscally prudent).

These “days of outrage” by civil sevants is another sign of empirical decay.

They can’t see that their demands are bringing down the system that feeds them. They just don’t get it, especially the teachers; more symptoms of the disease of ignorance and arrogance, by people who should know better but who NEVER HAVE AND NEVER WILL.

More lessons are on the way for them: dynamics, big and brutal and the survivors will be living (the Chinese Curse) in interesting times.

ALSO, hello out there to all of you 5/35s and HELOCs. Please note the above. It’s for you too.

#235 TheBigLebowski on 02.20.11 at 4:10 pm

When it comes to investing, real estate, or anything in life. You must learn to drink upstream from the herd. If you are doing what everyone else is doing then you are probably doing the wrong thing. Using this theory, one should not touch housing if you are expecting to preserve your wealth. History shows that on average 20% of financial assets were made up of gold/silver related investments. As it stands now the percentage is a mere .8%, that is less than one percent. Anyone who says that is a bubble has no idea what they are talking about.

#236 vreaa on 02.20.11 at 4:33 pm

Burnaby condo line-up saga now updated:
1. “sold out”
2. flip attempts on craigslist within HOURS.

see:
http://wp.me/pcq1o-1Rm
(scroll down for updates)

#237 Junius on 02.20.11 at 4:38 pm

#227 Boogie Man,

You said, “And, yes, we really do find you annoying and uneducated, for the most part.”

I agree with much of what the other poster said but this is too much. Americans calling Canadians uneducated is just ridiculous. I have travelled extensively in the US and have many good things to say about Americans but educational levels is not one of them. They are also the most myopic and self centred nation on Earth.

Go take a look at international standards of education. You will find that Americans are at shockingly low levels compared to most advanced countries, Canada included.

#238 Edmontonian Guy on 02.20.11 at 4:39 pm

Re:# 60 (blase)

“With the materials being used, low-skilled labour, and quality control issues, isn’t it a 5,10 or 15 year ticking time bomb for hundreds of thousands of homes built during this run-up? And won’t this add tens of thousands of dollars of debt to the average home-buyer?

In Alberta we are being plagued by “leaky” condos. No envelope standards for contruction. At least 500+ units affect so far. It’s a disaster!

#239 David on 02.20.11 at 4:42 pm

#211 John M.

Nope, that sure doesn’t sound like Canadains are using mortgages as piggy banks, or that the banks, with all their loan risk offloaded onto Canadains backs, are juicing their loan books by offering a bonus tweek of Meth.

No sirree…that was just those foolish Americans…we’re muuucchhh smarter here.

Just ask F., or Carney, or CMHC, or CREA, or ……

#240 David on 02.20.11 at 4:48 pm

#227 Boogie

You feel better now?

For someone who could care less, you sure could learn to care less.

#241 ExExpat on 02.20.11 at 5:05 pm

#228 Mister Obvious

I had an uncle who was a carpenter in Vancouver. His take on the leaky condos was there were 3 causes, mostly by well-meaning updated Provincial building standards for air tightness with poor execution or design from some contractors.

1. Shell was tighter – tyvec house wrap, etc. Problem is, building in a rain forest results in wet materials prior to final outer layer/roof. Tyvec does breath out, but net effect is still that soggy stuff stays soggy.
2. Bad workmanship, bad flashings or roof, bad installation of siding or stucco, use of building systems not proven for wet coast condition.
3. Inadequate ventilation for newer tight homes results in rot from the inside – water stays indoors. Common problem in cold climates, not limited to wet coast.

Best strategy – if you are buying ANYTHING, get it checked out by someone who knows what they are doing. Bidding wars are not conducive to this.

#242 bridgepigeon on 02.20.11 at 5:52 pm

227 Boogieman
Interesting commentary. What countries do the US like/respect? (Costa Rica comes to mind, for one). Does your government spew propaganda also or just ours? I don’t know about us being immaterial to the US, you do get some oil here, and are taking us to court for our water. I personally am glad that we are not as much a violent waring nation as the US. Lay it on the line for us…

#243 T.O. Bubble Boy on 02.20.11 at 5:59 pm

@ #219 S.B.:

Those numbers actually seem low! There have been several buildings (in CityPlace, Fort York, etc.) with 80+ units on realtor.ca at once.

How any of these sellers believe that they can get a premium for their condo is beyond me: laws of supply and demand would dictate that all of these condos should drop month after month after month until the excess supply is gone. The condo glut on the west side of downtown Toronto should get extremely interesting as tens of thousands of new units keep getting built over the next 2-3 years.

#244 Utopia on 02.20.11 at 6:06 pm

#227 Boogie Man

What ever happened to the good old days when you guys used to just call us “Cheese-heads” or “Mexicans with sweaters”?

#245 Behavioral Finance on 02.20.11 at 6:06 pm

I heard on the radio that if US gets rid of freddie and fannie, the 30 year mortgage would be history. Lets see how hard real estate industry will fight this one.

#246 debtified on 02.20.11 at 6:13 pm

Here’s one explanation why the Chinese people don’t mind getting involved in our hot, hot real estate: It’s much hotter there. Vancouver’s million-dollar shacks are bargains to be had relatively speaking.

For a Chinese person, real estate is a form of “savings” – safer than the equity market.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/videos/index.html?v=1756817960

When the bubble there busts, it will quickly travel across the oceans to our shores and Australia’s (among other countries supplying China its construction materials).

#247 Utopia on 02.20.11 at 6:14 pm

“166 sad canadian wrote….

Fact:
Canada’s real estate has been in decline for well over six months, but due to lack of transparency in your country there is more b.s. being pushed on consumers by the government and CREA

#248 Utopia on 02.20.11 at 6:18 pm

“166 sad canadian wrote….

Fact:
Canada’s real estate has been in decline for well over six months, but due to lack of transparency in your country there is more b.s. being pushed on consumers by the government and CREA
———————————————————-

How about this Sad Canadian, the words “in your country” in the comment above tell me that you are not a Canadian at all which is in conflict with the rest of your post.

Here is a Fact for you: You are a big fat fraud.

#249 THROWSTONE on 02.20.11 at 6:28 pm

TO JAN:

In its place, official policy increasingly sanctions and supports employers who use newcomers as cheap and disposable labour. It’s bad for diversity, it’s a terrible trend for workplaces, and it affects everyone

#250 Cellar Dwellar on 02.20.11 at 6:28 pm

@ #227 Boogie Man
I agree with a lot of what you said with the exception of

“….we really do find you (Canadians: sic) annoying and uneducated, for the most part….”

Annoying yes, uneducated no…sorry to disagree but my extensive travels in the US have led me to believe that most Canadian know more about the US than Americans. Does that fact mean we’re educated? No not particularly but uneducated?
In what sense?
Because we suck up the drivel our politicians spoon feed us on a daily basis? Well, sorry , but our politicians can barely hold a candle to the absolute crap your politicians shovel down your throats. ie George Bush and the “Weapons of Mass Destruction” in Iraq. How many dead US soldiers for THAT little fib?

#251 Tony on 02.20.11 at 6:41 pm

#30 Dan in Victoria

Realization

#252 Form Man on 02.20.11 at 7:15 pm

#242 expat

Your uncle is dead right. I am a construction superintendent, and I have spent a considerable amount of time repairing leaking condos ( by the way, even Kelowna and Kamloops have them in a semi-arid desert no less ). The 2006 building code requires ‘rainscreen’ exteriors in climates such as Vancouver, which does help. Pay close attention to the architectural style and details. There should be an overhang on the roof that exceeds all building protrusions lower down ( including balconies ). I would be wary of wood buildings ( especially if they have stucco siding ). If the building is wood, I prefer cement board siding ( vinyl siding does not breathe, and has a short lifespan). Concrete buildings sided with glass are usually ok.

#253 Boombust on 02.20.11 at 7:19 pm

#127…

“No matter how much kicking and screaming you do to get noticed, you’re really immaterial to us at the end of the day.”

Couldn’t have said it better about… yourself.

This is a Canadian site. Now buggar off.

#254 S.B. on 02.20.11 at 7:38 pm

#244 T.O. Bubble Boy: about Cityplace, it is a run-down ghetto already, according to these web sites:

And they are still building additional towers!! Thousands of units still to hit the market.

http://cityplace-ghetto.com

http://www.talkcondo.com/blog/cityplace-what-went-wrong

Anyone considering a large condo development should read those two reviews.

#255 BrianT on 02.20.11 at 7:46 pm

#209Crystal-My own personal experience has been that nurses and teachers were less likely to have a genuine caring nature than accountants, financial analysts and computer programmers. Of course, if you are talking about lack of empathy or even common courtesy it is hard to beat doctors.

#256 Maxamallion on 02.20.11 at 8:04 pm

Tour some Toronto condos this long weekend. You shall see walk-in closets masquerading as bedrooms. Hallways which are also the kitchen and best of all be amazed at how small some units are. Next step contact your agent.

http://www.youtube.com/user/NoPressureCa#p/a

#257 Morry on 02.20.11 at 8:10 pm

“the misfits in the attic who never get invited to the party.”

That is one funny line!

But this particular misfits has plenty of party invitations ;-)

#258 Timing is Everything on 02.20.11 at 8:25 pm

#207 Sad Canadian

I guess that makes you a ‘Happy American’ now.

Never been to Phoenix. I might visit one of these winters. I’m pretty sure I would not buy any property there.

#259 S.B. on 02.20.11 at 8:53 pm

Enjoying our “freedom to protest”? They are getting prepared for the coming food/gas riots at home, maybe?

Army wants rapid-fire rubber bullets for crowd control

David Hambling
New Scientist
Feb 20, 2011

THE US army is planning to field “rubber bullets” for machine guns. Military officials claim the ammunition will allow them to more effectively quell violent protests without loss of life, but human rights campaigners are alarmed by the new weapon.

The final design for the XM1044 round has not been selected, according to an order placed on the Federal Business Opportunities website last month, but the army’s Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Directorate has been working on a ring aerofoil projectile for some years. The round is a hollow plastic cylinder 40 millimetres across, looking something like a short toilet-paper roll. In flight its shape generates lift, giving it a longer range.

The army’s existing crowd-control rounds are single shots fired from handheld grenade launchers with a range of about 50 metres – the XM1044 would double this range. It would be supplied in belts for the Mk19 grenade launcher, a truck-mounted weapon that can fire almost six rounds per second. The Mk19 has been exported to some 30 countries, including Egypt.

“The US army has a requirement for a rapid-fire non-lethal capability,” says Ken Schulters, project manager for close combat systems at Picatinny Arsenal in New Jersey. “All currently fielded non-lethal ammunition is single shot.”

Full article here

#260 Coastie on 02.20.11 at 9:07 pm

An update based on watching the news the other night: that hotel condo complex in Burnaby– the Sovereign– sold out. Whether the line was fake or not initially, in the end it was real, and the demand is out there. One real estate agent explained the buyers are disillusioned with other types of investments, e.g stocks, and figuring that by buying real estate at least they’re buying something real.

I think condo and house prices in BC (or at least in Victoria and Vancouver) are madness, but I’m wondering if there hasn’t been a fundamental shift in Canada in how we view housing– as a commodity, as an investment, not just a home. Yes, we’re overdue for a major correction in house prices, but I think our political ‘leaders’ are going to be doing their best to avoid one if possible, e.g. by keeping interest rates low. Perhaps things have changed permanently. After all, it’s psychology, not real value, that has driven house prices up to where they are now– perhaps there won’t be enough of a major shake-up to change that, and we will be stuck with high housing prices for the foreseeable future.

#261 THROWSTONE on 02.20.11 at 9:11 pm

btw..that was in the globe and mail…

#262 AG Sage on 02.20.11 at 9:16 pm

>#236 TheBigLebowski on 02.20.11 at 4:10 pm
>When it comes to investing, real estate, or anything in life. You must learn to drink upstream from the herd.

Nice analogy, but you could have threaded it through farther. As in: “If you are doing what everyone else is doing, you are going to end up with dysentery.”

#263 Hoof-Hearted on 02.20.11 at 9:17 pm

#213 Zenith on 02.20.11 at 1:10 pm
Canada stands alone in the world as the best place to live and to invest. We are unaffected by the financial turmoil that continues to rock the world; our stock and real estate markets continue to rise higher and higher with each passing year! Our strong CAD has had no ability to blunt the unrelenting rise of our GDP and unemployment continues it’s descent downwards.

I love being Canadian!

We have happy, happy delusional citizens grateful for their omniscient leaders and the fact God made it different here! — Garth

================

LOL re the smug Canadian

Canada has been balkanized and regionalized.
The only “unity” is when we beat the US or Russia in Hockey.

What I foresee is a quantum leap crash versus a bubble deflating. Canada is a pimple on the Globe re influence,..and smugness is based on the often tut-tut reality we are neighbours of the US.

Get thine cranium out of thine rectum…….

#264 AG Sage on 02.20.11 at 9:21 pm

>#229 TS on 02.20.11 at 3:53 pm

Google cache is your friend.
Search for “site:http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/faq/faq_001.cfm

then use the cache link

#265 Hoof-Hearted on 02.20.11 at 9:30 pm

#242 ExExpat on 02.20.11 at 5:05 pm
#228 Mister Obvious

I had an uncle who was a carpenter in Vancouver. His take on the leaky condos was there were 3 causes, mostly by well-meaning updated Provincial building standards for air tightness with poor execution or design from some contractors.

=============

ROTFLMAO…

Well meaning updated Provincial standards ??????

No…sorry BS….
Why not delve deeper and see who serves on advisory for Provincial standards. Its often insiders with vested interests.

Whenever there is a boom…..standards are diluted.

In BC……stucco worked well in the West Coast climate…
Why?

Old lathe and plaster stucco inherently had the rain screen system….the lathe was built in such a way that there was an air gap between stucco and wall.

In the 1950’s they used wire mesh(not lathe) BUT the stucco was 3 coats, final coat was almost impermeable. The 3 coats of stucco were almost one inch thick.

Nowadays, they put on a thin coat and acrylic….simply for production ………so they could sell quick to house horny whatevers….

I was at a family members strata unit recently , built in the early 1990’s….had the wedding cake stucco…advised em sell this ASAP before they get a mega assessment, as apparently the strata has been delaying the inevitable.

The design is conducive to leaking…

In the old days…they would frame a house and leave it time to breathe and dry out…then come back and continue.

#266 Sail1 on 02.20.11 at 9:32 pm

#213 Zenith

We have happy, happy delusional citizens grateful for their omniscient leaders and the fact God made it different here! — Garth

I imagine there are many, as you put it delusional citizens in Canada. You know of a better place to live?

#267 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 02.20.11 at 9:32 pm

Canada and other OECD countries education levels:

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/Details/education/university-completion.aspx

Be sure to check the options down the LHS.

209 – No crystal – I was surprised nobody else had mentioned this. Nothing worse than being stuck in a “career” you don’t enjoy.

242 XX – good info to know. I also recall something about the dew point within 2X6 walls, as opposed to on/near the outside with 2X4. Maybe Dan from Vic can add to this?

#268 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 02.20.11 at 9:35 pm


Sum English weirdos . . .
*
Statistically, 6 out of 7 dwarves are not happy.
*
My wife was hinting about what she wanted for our upcoming anniversary.

She said, ‘I want something shiny that goes from zero to 150 in about three seconds.’

I bought her some scales.
*
I start a new job in Seoul next week.

I thought it was a good Korea move.
*
The Prime Minister, David Cameron, has announced that he intends to make it more difficult to claim benefits.

From next week, all the forms will be printed in English.
*
I was driving this morning when I saw a CAA van parked. The driver was sobbing uncontrollably and looked very miserable.

I thought to myself ‘that guy’s heading for a breakdown’.
*
On holiday recently in Spain I saw a sign that said ‘English speaking Doctor’ —

I thought, ‘What a good idea, why don’t we have them in our country?’
*
Life’s a gas! Gawd, what a godgeous day today. Sunny and 750 C. Nice and warm!

Ben’s Fried Chicken and Barf It Up.

Jaws Guess this is why there is ‘net chatter about Precious Metals being conficated when prices reach a set level.

Dot-coms. Who recalls it and the carnage that followed?

Glenn Beck Don’t know much about him, but he is right with part of the headline.

Katrina Part II Scientists say the sun is waking up, and it could lead to a US$2 Trillion hit. Plus Now you see it, now you don’t.

Hmmm. Collusion between Muslims? Mercy! But there is more to this than meets the eye. Plus — Islam prohibits interest charges on loans. The IMF charges interest for ever.

Telling it as it really is, from one of Obama’s own men.

#269 Cowboy on 02.20.11 at 9:37 pm

Boogie man,
You said, Americans also look at Canadians as delusional, irresponsible 6th graders that never really grew up. And, yes, we really do find you annoying and uneducated, for the most part. We often refer to you as “the misfits in the attic who never get invited to the party.”
SO funny, this is exactly how THE WORLD views your amazing country, although not wanting to socialize with you and preferring to hide in the attic could be true of Canadians. Who wants to sit there talking with an arse like you all night? Life is too short for that. You are very typically American, too dumb to realise you’re dumb and too boring to realise you’re boring. Thanks though for trying to enlighten us, means so much that we hear what you and your college buddies have come to conclusions about in your sheltered and superior little lives.
I wouldn’t try and defend your educational standard though, maybe you should try a different thing to convince
others of, statistically that is a joke, but then you should know this…
Oh yeah, why are you on a Canadian blog if we are so insignificant to you?

#270 Hoof-Hearted on 02.20.11 at 9:43 pm

Burnaby Condos

O**I ?

(Note * = consanant between M and Q

They pulled a similar stunt in Richmond in early 2009, just after the world financial crisis. Staged a sale on existing condos…balloons and tents….

Doing a search….they don’t have the best reputation.
Grinding and ripping off tradesmen..poor follow -up for purchasers,…family taken each other to court….one family member got whacked in North Van….

In Richmond…..way too much presence…disproportional. Seem to be the Wal Mart of developers

As someone noted earlier, they seem to buy land in poor locations and then flog the units like a rented mule.

I also recall that when the global financial crisis hit….people were bailing out of pre-sales and O**I was the first company to file and take purchasers to court….even seniors.

Simply do a search on ” O**I” …..I challenge anyone to find a satisfied customer .

Be warned….

#271 Devore on 02.20.11 at 9:53 pm

#261 Coastie

An update based on watching the news the other night: that hotel condo complex in Burnaby– the Sovereign– sold out. Whether the line was fake or not initially, in the end it was real, and the demand is out there. One real estate agent explained the buyers are disillusioned with other types of investments, e.g stocks, and figuring that by buying real estate at least they’re buying something real.

Sold out, hmm?

http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/bnc/apa/2224133573.html

$400 SOVEREIGN – Assignment (Burnaby)
Date: 2011-02-19, 8:06PM PST
Reply to: [email protected] [Errors when replying to ads?]

Any body who is interested in an assignment please contact me.

I have 3 units ready for signing

2 one bedrooms
1 studio

Adding $25k assignment to original pre open day price. (first 80 units)

If you are interested – you need to be quick cause these will be signed over on monday or tuesday (no assignment fees if done in the next few days)

Sold out to flippers maybe, who will not be completing on their assignments if they can’t find suckers to buy from them.

#272 S.B. on 02.20.11 at 10:00 pm

Harper’s Canada, globalist rule:

http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/2010-2011/youshouldhavestayedathome/

G20: The Untold Stories
They were the most unlikely of troublemakers. There were thousands of ordinary citizens on the streets at Toronto’s G20 Summit marching peacefully until the police closed in and shut them down. Many had gone downtown simply to see what was going on, only to find themselves forcibly dragged away by police and locked up for hours in a makeshift detention center without timely access to lawyers or medical treatment.

It’s been eight months since the G20 and the iconic images are still with us — burning police cars, rampaging mobs, the massive security presence that according to the official story is all that stood between Canada’s largest city and chaos. But that’s not the whole story of Toronto’s G20. Astonishing new images caught on camera are now emerging and they expose a troubling new picture of what happened to hundreds of ordinary citizens swept up in the huge police dragnet during those three highly-charged days last June.

Gillian Findlay presents a revealing new street-level perspective of what happened when thousands of police were deployed in downtown Toronto and instructed to do what was necessary to ensure the wall around the G20 Conference Centre was never breached. Exclusive eyewitness video obtained by the fifth estate brings to light startling images captured on cellphones and minicams by the innocent bystanders who found themselves on the wrong side of all that G20 “order.” In a rare television interview, Toronto Police Chief Bill Blair explains why police took the actions they did.

On this edition of the fifth estate: the summit from the street, and the people who never dreamed it could happen to them. The stories you’ll hear will raise questions about what protest means in this country and what the limits to dissent have become

#273 Dan in Victoria on 02.20.11 at 10:08 pm

Tony @ 252
As soon as I push the submit button, the statute of limitations runs out on the spelling cops.
Thanks though I’ll try harder. LOL