Because it’s wicked hard to have a real estate blog and not make fun of Vancouver, I’ll continue. The entire Lower Mainland is hilarious. But first a word about godless Toronto.
The property pumpers at places like The Toronto Star may continue to blow sunshine up every public orifice they can find, but this market’s turning into a sick puppy. Unless properties are priced below expectations, they sit. Over 17,000 new condo units will flood in during 2011, burying demand. And once March 18th is in the rear view mirror, the stage is set for price declines – especially when higher interest rates kick in (the next announcement is at 9 am on Tuesday March 1st).
For the eighth consecutive month, year-over-year sales numbers are negative. This is meaningful. Since June of 2010 fewer deals have taken place than in the same month a year earlier. For the first half of February, it’s a decline of 13%.
But while sales continue to go down, prices continue to go up – another classic indication of a market in distress. The average GTA price has swollen 5% in a year to $451,257. That’s 4.7 times the average family income, which puts it just above the ratio at which the US housing market collapsed. But this is misleading. The average SFH in 416 now sells for $751,366, or almost 8 times average income, a number which has risen 9% in the past twelve months, or roughly four times the rate of inflation.
And the average income gain in the country’s largest city in the past year? Zero. Meanwhile debt has romped higher and now sits at $1.50 for every dollar a family earns. So it’s not too hard to see where this 9% hike in the value of a single-family home came from – money borrowed at historically low rates.
So, this is why we’re screwed. At least those of us with scant equity and fat mortgages, or dumb enough to keep the bulk of our net worth in a single assets – a house. Over the next 90 days we know (a) the 35-year mortgage will croak, (b) first-time buyers will give up and go back to coping with puberty, (c) the Bank of Canada will do its thing, hiking VRMs, (d) the bond market will goose 5-year mortgages and (e) rising food and gas prices will suck. So how can we be headed into anything other than a buyer’s market?
And it will be a long one. Correction first, then a melt. By this time next year the only things I’ll have to write about — squirrel brownies and yummy underwear.
Meanwhile in Burnaby, home of the faux condo lineup, idiot reporters and worse weather than Gander, we have more eyewitness reports on that scandalous marketing fiasco. As you know, somebody advertised on Craigslist for rent-a-buyers to queue up outside the sales centre for ‘The Sovereign’, a 40-something storey tower in the centre of this world-class, cosmo city.
If you build it, they will come. If you pay them, they’ll come sooner. And enough came that Global TV rushed a crack news team down to film the fakers, then rushed to air with a story about the return of condomania. It was pathos. But the funny kind.
Some additional things you might want to know if tomorrow morning you wake up with an uncontrollable urge to live beside a Sav-On store and payday loan shop, with a fabulous west coast a view of the Staples parking lot across the street:
You can buy a unit in The Sovereign for only $260,000, but it contains just 388 square feet. My Harley lives in more room.
So maybe a two-bedroom ‘estate home’ would suit you better. Here 1,000 square feet starts at $700,000, and lucky buyers can get “upgrades” such as laminate wood flooring (I think you can buy that at Staples) and a real electric fireplace. Can you imagine how any babe would put out after lounging before a heatless appliance on a quarter inch of plastic-over-concrete? Where do I, pant, sign?
By the way, balconies are included in the square footage totals. Extra parking spaces can be had for $20,000. Completion is in 2014, or maybe never. Buyers must put down 20%, a full three years before buying – the lost use of which will be used to subsidize the mortgage rate for the first 80 lucky victims.
Ah yes, and word has it the people who loaned their bodies for marketing, and laughed as they gave interviews to Global, were paid $1,000 for three days.
Did I mention we were screwed?
201 comments ↓
CMHC corrects 2 critics;
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2011/02/cmhc-corrects-two-critics.html
Ladies and Gentlemen… the mayor of Mississauga!
That story was disgusting! I can’t believe Global doing this it violates all journalistic principles.
My theory is that they posted “The Sovereign” (presumably named after the debt crisis?) on the news last night to act as fodder for the story tonight about a lineup (of chairs) for the Olympic Village.
Suck some more idiot buyers in…..no thanks I’d rather live in Surrey.
LAST!
CMHC answers back;
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2011/02/cmhc-corrects-two-critics.html
I think the majority of the people who have had their houses for five years or more and who have at least 25% equity (this is probably 3/4 of all mortgage holders) will hang on to their property, even when-if the rates ever increase to average levels. The people who are screwed are those who bought in the last few years with 5-10% down. Most of those people bought crappy little condos with $300/month maintenance fees. Those places aren’t good investments. Even if the market corrects 20%, most people who have owned for at least three years will probably be where they were originally, so barring a massive correction, I don’t think we’ll see a mass exodus. How can the Fed raise rates by more than a few percentage points with the debt they have and the unemployment levels in the States? There can’t be a sustained significant interest rate differential between Canada and the States.
Garth,
Did you see the Mattamy Milton listings for over $800,000. (W2036622) and (W2032493). Milton is hot…hot…hot….Won’t be long now…pop!!
I’m just glad that between mailing letters and sending teletypes, organizing your next steam powered autogyro flight to Ceylon and listening to tunes on that 8 track tape player, you modernized the blog with link buttons.
Hows that Brampton real estate doing? I thought so.
Garth I am curious in what you think will happen to Canada when the USA dollar is no longer the World Reserve Currency? It is coming from very soon. People take your money out of the USA.
Not in this lifetime. — Garth
It’s like you say Garth….demographics are stacked up against us while our concept of ‘needs’ and ‘wants’ is set for a major readjustment. It will pull hardest at the McMansions:
http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2011/02/17/primer-7-housing-envy-and-the-joneses-how-a-realignment-in-consumer-expectations-will-pull-at-aggregate-house-prices/
March 18-Pop goes the Ponzi scheme that has used taxpayer and saver subsidized debt to help a bunch of speculators drive up the cost of my living so that the government sector and the senior execs in the FIRE industries can benefit through the greatest transfer of wealth ever seen.
This scandal will end in tears just as it has everywhere else. The rate of change in Mortgage debt has been slowing dramatically YOY for the last several years..hence we got the 35 nd 40 yr amortizations and borrowed downpayment schemes activated just in time a few years ago..like all Ponzi schemes, a large number of suckers is needed constantly to keep the mirage going…the pool of marginal buyers will get a whole lot smaller after March 18..
0 % interest rates, buy today and pay in 3 years, people with not even 10K in the bank buying 400K houses at 4% mortgages, houses rising at 7 %/yr for a decade, record growth in gov’t spending, record debt levels which rose at much more than GDP/Income are all signs of a very sick economy.
Careful out there.
JO
zOMG!
Garth, this is pure, unadulterated GOLD.
“So maybe a two-bedroom ‘estate home’ would suit you better. Here 1,000 square feet starts at $700,000, and lucky buyers can get “upgrades” such as laminate wood flooring (I think you can buy that at Staples) and a real electric fireplace. Can you imagine how any babe would put out after lounging before a heatless appliance on a quarter inch of plastic-over-concrete? Where do I, pant, sign?”
I raise my glass of Balvenie Doublewood to you, my friend.
Everyone else’s mileage may vary.
I’m posting this again so everyone can sign the petition, hopefully.
http://www.avaaz.org/en/canada_fair_and_balanced/?vl
I was wondering, how did y’all find the Craigslist ad in the first place? Doesn’t seem like readers of this blog would be trolling the ‘unskilled help wanted’ section of Craigslist Vancouver. Unless maybe it was a realtor or mortgage broker.
I’m happy to tell you, but then you must die. — Garth
Garth, are those share buttons attached to posts or to the whole site? (I think what your readers were asking for would have been post-specific share buttons)
The Aftermath:
http://goanimate.com/movie/0y_ces8zAp7Y?utm_source=linkshare&uid=0nOY5OXfN__8
This is the kind of post that shows why Garth makes sense: he can separate the bubble from the foam and understands how the market works in tandem with the difference between desire and its excesses. Congratulations, your photos make sense and I appreciate the irony.
“Household debt surpasses six-figure mark”
“For the 55 per cent of Canadian households with mortgages, the average debt figure is even higher: $171,500. Those are the households that are going to be the most vulnerable when interest rates inevitably rise and housing prices fall, says Roger Sauvé, the report’s author. “Their payments are going to go up and the price of their house is going to go down. It’ll be more difficult.” ”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/household-debt-surpasses-six-figure-mark/article1911236/
.
@13: Agreed, pure gold!!
Hong Kong curbing of house flipping coincides with local real estate boom
http://www.bclocalnews.com/richmond_southdelta/richmondreview/news/116348674.html#
It’s a puzzle that’s left many realtors scratching their heads: What triggered the local real estate boom last November that’s seen house prices jump hundreds of thousands of dollars in just three months?
The Ming Pao Daily, in a joint investigation with The Richmond Review, has learned that the local boom coincided with the introduction in Hong Kong of a special duty intended to curb speculation in residential properties.
The 15-per-cent duty on properties resold within 24 months of acquisition was introduced on Nov. 19 by the government of Hong Kong.
According to the Ming Pao, property flipping is a very common practice in Hong Kong and has contributed to numerous housing bubbles over the last decade.
“The current property boom is fuelled by a heavy element of speculative activities, as suggested by the 32 per cent surge in the number of resales within 24 months in the first nine months of 2010, as compared with the same period in 2009,” the Hong Kong government stated in a press release.
Another day, another real estate agent poses as buyer for story.
http://tasmanianrealestatetrouble.blogspot.com/2011/02/disclosure.html
#15 Burnt Norton on 02.17.11 at 11:42 pmI was wondering, how did y’all find the Craigslist ad in the first place? Doesn’t seem like readers of this blog would be trolling the ‘unskilled help wanted’ section of Craigslist Vancouver. Unless maybe it was a realtor or mortgage broker.
I’m happy to tell you, but then you must die. — Garth
==============================
Yeah…an e-mail from Satan was intercepted by WikiLeaks…..
Hell is overrun with Realtors and Lawyers….something about flipping condos in hell…..and even Satan got burnt.
aka no more deaths Garth….simply send them to Winnipeg or any part of TO.
Having all my net worth in one house is risky, so I’ve spread it across four! :)
Getting paid $1000 for 3 days (probably cash not declared), I would be able to afford such high prices!
Maybe that’s the trick, get paid to stand in line faking to buy condos, in order to be able to afford such condo.
Interesting to me that Vancouver’s Global TV at 6 o’clock did a story about the new the Olympic Village sales strategy and also mentioned “a condo glut” in Vancouver in the same piece.
Damage control after the Burnaby “Sovereign” nonsense?
Whatever, they’re still a bunch of shameless shills at that station.
[i]@ #16 Dave on 02.17.11 at 11:42 pm[/i]
I think we all meant a post specific link/share button, but let’s just first be glad there is one link to the whole site. I guess next upgrade will be post-specific links!
Thanks for the good link Jsan. The study’s author sounds an awful lot like our learned host. The numbers quoted appear to be quite low for anybody living in the GTA. More to Jo’s point, I don’t think I know anybody under the age of 40 with much less than 400K in total debt. For anybody that is solidly middle class, that is huge mountain of debt.
Makes ‘The Gardens on Rose’ look like a deal:
http://www.gardensonrose.com/
From the Canadian Mortgage Trends article which reports the following comments from CMHC in response to criticism of it’s efforts…..
“•CMHC’s latest stress testing results concluded that when applying all 10,000 economic scenarios, combined with plausible adverse business scenarios, CMHC had a less than one half of one percent probability of insolvency”.
———————————————————
Hunh? Ten thousand scenarios!!!
How about just one single real world variable expressed as a percentage. The average price of housing in the US has dropped more than 35% and has still not found a bottom in many markets.
That took place in the economy most similar to our own and from which we derive over 70% of our export incomes.
I would love to see the list of 10,000 variables they have plugged into the supercomputer over at the IT department of CMHC though that might make a mockery of the daily reality in the States.
I heard a smart IBM computer named “Watson” just beat the brightest of all contestants on Jeopardy during yesterdays show.
Lets ask Watson if CMHC has a hope in hell if a major price decline actually hits Canadian housing shores as many speculate. Now what are the stated objectives of that outfit again?
Oh yes, to help Canadians access “affordable” housing. Somewhere along the way the word “affordable” which features prominently in their list of objectives seems to have been cut adrift, unless that is, paying 5 to 10 times average incomes for the average home is now considered normal.
Oh wait. That is not funny. It is normal these days.
Over to you HAL.
http://www.cmhc.ca/en/corp/about/anrecopl/upload/CMHC_AR2009_MDA-PerformanceAgainstObjectives.pdf
Toronto might be getting 17,000 new condos, but Canada let in 280,000 immigrants last year and most of them settled in Toronto. Toronto has an apartment vacancy rate of only 2%, and the vacancy rate of condo rentals is even lower, 1%. So 17,000 condos might seem like a lot but when you put it into context it actually isn’t even enough. And what when thousands of boomers decide to downsize over the next few years and trade their detached homes for condos? Sorry to disappoint all you vultures waiting to snap up cheap real estate at someone else’s expense, but no price correction is coming, at least not in the GTA. 3x income for a house is never coming back, ever.
“CMHC corrects 2 critics;
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2011/02/cmhc-corrects-two-critics.html
”
– The average home equity within (CMHC’s) insurance portfolio is 45%
– CMHC has almost twice the minimum level of reserves” required by OSFI
Garth, what do you think of the CMHC’s responses?
Not much. Fannie and Freddie were also ‘solvent’ before their collapse. — Garth
My understanding of the Vanier report is that the $100,000 debt figure for Canadians includes mortgage debt. The factor that would make that figure scary is if it includes ALL Canadians, ie:every man, woman and child. If it is based on households, it still doesn’t seem out of whack. What am I missing here? I know a lot of people who have mortgages that are a $100grand or less. Any comments?
That’s twice now that Global TV BC has been snookered by these staged media events. Do they even know? Would they care?
Pathos indeed – not the hot babe in the photo but those who stay inside during months of sunshine cheering for the monsoon that will never come, though a spot of rain probably will.
Honestly, putting aside minor fluctuations, if even one-half of the breathless doom and gloom suggested by the posters here occurs within the next five years, I will eat a bug.
Only a bug? — Garth
Love the pic!
You go granny! I love that generation (prior to boomers). They smoke, they drink, they eat real butter, and they say things we all think but are too politically correct to say.
Garth is right…we’re screwed. I’m an old boy scout, taught to ‘be prepared’…at least the establishment taught me something of value, not like all the bullcrap I learned in school. Sitting in a condo, waiting for the crash, salivating for real estate carrion.
I wonder how many of Bob Rennies deals of his test sales of the Olympic Condo’s are legit or real. Perhaps some are just conditional offers that are considered as done deals. Of course conditional sales are just that, crap. Or maybe these so called test sales are just another way way of blowing smoke up everyones ass just like the line up at the condo deal in Burnaby?
Hi Garth, do you mind to post a nice pic of scantily clad young woman once again?
Garth et all,
I’m in agreement with most of the comments made by GT here every day, and I also agree that what’s currently happening in the RE market goes against all the basic fundamentals that drive a healthy market. There is a “but” here, and that is the unexplainable, yet undeniable fact that there is a current buying frenzy by mainland Chinese currently taking place in select areas of the Lower Mainland. I’ve witnessed it first hand and it’s an eerie thing to witness one of these buyers. They don’t care about rental returns, cost of maintenance or any of the things that normally drive the value of a home. Their only interest is the increase in value in a few years.
Pathos indeed – not the hot babe in the photo but those who stay inside during months of sunshine cheering for the monsoon that will never come, though a spot of rain probably will.
Honestly, putting aside minor fluctuations, if even one-half of the breathless doom and gloom suggested by the posters here occurs within the next five years, I will eat a bug.
Only a bug? — Garth
____________________________
Okay, I will be prepared to eat crow, and properly should, if things go in the crapper down the road. But only if the posters here are prepared apologize for calling everyone STUPID who happens to disagree with them, if it turns out that they were wrong.
I became a first-time purchaser (in Vancouver of all blooming places) within the last year, as I have a different view of the future than most of the posters here, and different with all respect from Mr. Turner’s. I read this column regularly for the insight and the perspective and the humour, but frankly, repeatedly getting indirectly called an idiot or stupid by the dawgs here is getting a little worn. But the photos are worth in the indirect abuse.
You are pulling our leg are you not! Have you ever seen so much mindless drivel as what appears herein. Such as “Me First” “Last” etc… Bet many here would have jumped at a gig of 1K for three days of yaking on the lines. gawd!
http://bearmountain.ca/Home/Live/Properties.aspx
Click on “Floorplans & Pricing”
Victoria condos down 65% but that’s not news so the media won’t report it.
Canadian Mortgage Trends is a joke. It’s a site run by brokers to make themselves feel good about screwing people into mortgaging themselves to the hilt. They don’t want any real discussion on there based on common sense, only if it suits their lending business.
They don’t get it that you can’t lend out billions to rank amatuer borrowers and expect it to work to perfection. CMHC has only been used as a serious lender for the last 5 years or so, hardly enought time for a business cycle to run it’s course and truly test CMHC’s so called stress test BS.
The true stress test is called “more sellers than buyers” AKA a “market correction”, something that doesn’t compute into these mortgage lender types brain cells.
Canada VS United States household outstanding mortgage credit 1980-2008 graphs look like twins.
Between 1980 and 1990, outstanding mortgage credit doubled more or less in each country. In 1990-2000, the same thing happened for both countries and then 2000- 2008 outstanding mortgage credit doubled again.
http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2011/02/canada-vs-united-states-household.html
>#10 AACI-Okanagan on 02.17.11 at 11:21 pm
>Garth I am curious in what you think will happen to
>Canada when the USA dollar is no longer the World
>Reserve Currency? It is coming from very soon.
>People take your money out of the USA.
>Not in this lifetime. — Garth
I have to agree with Garth. As much as I dislike the yankees sometimes. Don’t bet against the US, or the US dollar. You will lose.
Dear Fellow Bloggers,
As I drove my son to school this morning – it was hailing afterall – we heard the story about the “line waiters” at the Village at False Creek on the radio. My teenage son looked at me and said, what, that’s a job? I said yep, apparently you’re paid $12 per hour. He thought it sounded pretty boring, not to mention very cold – we turned up the heater in the car just thinking about those poor “line waiters”. We decided that the next time they had a school project about wierd and wonderful jobs, he would profile “line waiters”. He thought it was totally looney tunes that people would be asked to do this, but liked the idea of getting paid for it. He was conjuring up various scenarios, one more outrageous than the next. For example, he thought you could really crank up the fee depending on what you were waiting for in the line. I thought to myself, yes, like maybe food. I have to thank the real estate industry for providing me with the best laugh I’ve had with my teen for quite some time.
On a more serious note, I noticed a double lot property listed on the MLS in the “hot hot hot” Cambie area of Vancouver. It had heritage features and was not obviously a knock down. It was priced at just under 1 million which is about $300,000 less than that knockdown on a regular lot in the same area that sold about 2 weeks ago. Had to phone the real estate agent and ask what was wrong with the property. The agent said there was nothing wrong with the property and that it had been listed for about 1.5 million just recently. The plan was to sell it in one day and that they expected to receive 20 or 30 offers right away. There was no expectation that it would go for 1 million. The price looked wrong right off the bat, but I felt bad for the young families who might have actually thought that the asking price really was the 1 million as opposed to the opening bid price in a land auction.
Finally, a house down the street that couldn’t sell for about 1.2 million last fall is now back on the market as priced to sell for just over $1.3 million. There is something truly wacky about our little jewel on the coast. The lattes must be spiked, I swear.
#19 Jsan on 02.17.11 at 11:44 pm
————————————–
The actual study (Current state of Canadian family finances):
http://www.vifamily.ca/node/783
One thing I am sure of. CMHC hates Garth Turner!
#7 Neo: Did you notice the street name of the first property, 800 Sales Court. In a year or so it will be Stale Court with prices like that. Nothing special to see there, not for that much.
Note to self: if live to 100, take up smoking . . .
>“•CMHC’s latest stress testing results concluded that when applying all 10,000 economic scenarios, combined with plausible adverse business scenarios, CMHC had a less than one half of one percent probability of insolvency”.
I’ll take the other side of that bet.
Really, where can I do that? I’ve got cash.
>.#39 Fool me once… on 02.18.11 at 12:50 am
>Garth et all,
>I’m in agreement with most of the comments made
>by GT here every day, and I also agree that what’s
>currently happening in the RE market goes against all the basic fundamentals that drive a healthy market.
>There is a “but” here, and that is the unexplainable, yet undeniable fact that there is a current buying
>frenzy by mainland Chinese currently taking place in select areas of the Lower Mainland. I’ve witnessed it
>first hand and it’s an eerie thing to witness one of these buyers. They don’t care about rental returns, cost of maintenance or any of the things that normally
>drive the value of a home. Their only interest is the increase in value in a few years.
They sure got lots of $, last I check, they are buying up Toronto too. Way to go China, please bring more money to Canada. Thanks!.
“You can buy a unit in The Sovereign for only $260,000, but it contains just 388 square feet. My Harley lives in more room”. ~~Garth
—————————————-
Geez Louise, after subtracting the balcony that makes these miniature dog-house size units almost as expensive as the one we discussed two days back on UBC. We are talking prices in excess of 700 dollars per square foot again.
I don’t even know what remarks to add to that except that it makes me feel sick. This is all getting just too out of control.
No wonder a rent a crowd was employed to pump sales numbers up. Anyone else here suffering vertigo?
“Meanwhile in Burnaby, home of the faux condo lineup, idiot reporters and worse weather than Gander”
————————————————————Hey, I lived in Gander for a while.
Truly the “Best people on earth” :)
#6 Tim
What about the ones who used their house as an ATM?
While I generally dislike HGTV, I sometimes flip for the Buy Me show. It’s like watching the future today.
Yesterday they had an Alberta family: he went east to work, decided it would be good time to ditch his wife of 18 years (plus kids) while he was already at it. House bought for $250k-ish in 2000 (this is a 2008 episode, you see where this is going). Need to sell for $480k+ to not have to bring check to the bank. Say whaaaat? That sucker should have been nearly paid off already. Wife stuck with house, must sell immediately because she’s short $500 every month. Hilarity ensues. Well, it doesn’t, it’s actually sad.
That was just a short 10% dip.
I am glad that you are not rendered speechless Garth by the shock and horror. Honestly what can we do to make this kind of reporting illegal? I am calling my MP – oh he just resigned for a better job in the private sector….
Smug–R–Us, great moniker. Er… maybe Mug–R–Us would be even better.
#16 Dave on 02.17.11 at 11:42 pm
“Garth, are those share buttons attached to posts or to the whole site? (I think what your readers were asking for would have been post-specific share buttons)”
——————————————————–
That is what the Permalink function is for Dave. Just scroll over the # of any post to see what I mean.
Do you want to know how this story ends? Just look across the border. We are following the US every step of the way. Once rates start climbing, and those with the “Teaser rates” try to lock in, they will be shocked to see that the new locked in non floating rates will be. 2,3 maybe even 4 times what they were currently paying.
President Obama projects that the gross federal debt will top $15 trillion this year, officially equalling the size of the entire U.S. economy, and will jump to nearly $21 trillion in five years’ time.
Garth, (et al) I am curious as to what your opinion is of the merger between TMX and the London Stock Exchange Group. Should we care?
There are conflicts as noted in G & M (as well as provincial concern for jobs for Ontarians):
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/strategic-assets/tmx-merger-raises-questions-about-foreign-investment-in-canada/article1905610/
And, Ellen Russell outlined other objections:
http://www.policyalternatives.ca/publications/commentary/should-you-care-who-owns-toronto-stock-exchange
The big concern she articulates is regulation compromise.
So….investors…good, bad, don’t care, who cares?
PS. This is on topic, as we should be concerned about the ‘Ethos’ surrounding financial markets.
–
Sick Pathos, or The Study Of Orifices, a.k.a. #258 Young Patricia Kluge on 02.17.11 at 10:04 pm — Garth’s site has been infiltrated by a CPC hack. Say no more!
“But the funny kind. Funny pathos, squirrel brownies and yummy underwear. Where do I, pant, sign?” — Zorba the Greek, politicians and banxters? Yummy teflon asbestos I understand. But banxters shorts? Barfitorium here I come!
*
Midway, B.C. Good news for them — the lumber plant has been bought and will reopen shortly.
Sun Flare Different from what was posted earlier (that hit the moon and missed us), this one is still happening. Constant Change The North Pole is somewhere by Tierra del Fuego (Frank Zappa joke). New Madrid Fault acting up?
China Inflation + gold / silver / copper and more.
Ivory Coast run and US Naval worldwide deployments.
Coma One, Coma Two and Coma Three. Tunisia, Egypt and Israel. Curious. Aliens?
China and Canada Cyber attacks or propaganda garbage from Wikileaks? Closer to the Truth.
Near The Peak? European Sovereign debt levels with lots of colorful charts. Smells Like Nortel and Bre-X.
More Charts Employment or rather, Lack of Employment. Wonder what it’s like for Harperville?
“Smug-R-Us
I became a first-time purchaser (in Vancouver of all blooming places) within the last year, as I have a different view of the future than most of the posters here, and different with all respect from Mr. Turner’s. I read this column regularly for the insight and the perspective and the humour, but frankly, repeatedly getting indirectly called an idiot or stupid”
I guess some people forget to do their research, so BOO HOO if you are criticized, take it as a need to improve on your assumptions. Some people’s children!
Question about those debt figures:
If I currently have no debt, like many others, does that mean that there an equal number of people out there with a 300% debt load?
Of course these figures do not include the federal, provincial and civic debts kindly incurred by our wise leaders on our behalf.
Re post # 39
Old mentor/mama once said…
“Stupid is as Stupid does”
http://neithercorp.us/npress/2011/02/how-to-fake-an-economic-recovery/
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/business/economy/14dip.html?_r=1
Letter went out to Global…. Tell the truth or get off the air…. But then again, why should they? Everybody does it…… We should be used to being defrauded by the MSM.
YES, click the link to know why house prices have risen so much over the last 8 years AND why they didn’t fall after 2008! It may open some eyes!
http://www.southasianfocus.ca/community/article/96476
@#30 Utopia on 02.18.11 at 12:20 am
From the Canadian Mortgage Trends article which reports the following comments from CMHC in response to criticism of it’s efforts…..
“•CMHC’s latest stress testing results concluded that when applying all 10,000 economic scenarios, combined with plausible adverse business scenarios, CMHC had a less than one half of one percent probability of insolvency”.
Yeah, I LOL’d at that too. Unbelievable. Literally.
Garth, you always stress that USD will remain the worlds’ reserve currency for years to come and that US will return to its past glory.
I say USD will be a part of a basket of currencies within 3 years. US debt including municipal debt will sky rocket during this time. The only reason the stock market has any life is because of FED pumping in fresh money. The jobs are certainly not coming back.
I want the US to succeed. But with no real vision for the future and reckless monetary policy the only way to go is down. The “phony” GDP and unemployment numbers produced can keep the sheeps quiet only for short time.
If you disagree please let me know just one thing that US has done right in the past 3 years that deserves attention.
#40 Smug-R-Us on 02.18.11 at 12:51 am
Come on man. It’s not about name-calling. It’s about the use of logic and reasoning with reference to fairly relevant subjects like, oh, history, political science, ecology, geography, economics and psychology in order to make educated guesses about how to retire comfortably as soon as possible.
So your particular plan involves buying a place in Vancouver? Fine. Good for you. But maybe instead of complaining about anonymous and non-specific name calling, you could put forward some constructive points to argue why it might not be financial suicide for others to follow suit.
“# 28 – xindai shan …I don’t think I know anybody under the age of 40 with much less than 400K in total debt. For anybody that is solidly middle class, that is huge mountain of debt… ” – You are looking at a narrow scope of things…people will own, pour and owed lots of money into real estate no matter what is the amount as long as they get approve from the bank or providing $$ from mama and papa’s downpayment because 1) they truly believe real estate will always go up..2) interest rate does not matter because my home or condo will goes up..3) my fake equity will always goes up because a home or a condo is an illiquid asset which (lets pretend TD stocks goes down to $ 10 if something hits the fan..), my illiquid asset will still value at a price I believe (not talking about what market makes me to or what my stock broker shows on my screen)…So, to conclude this analogy, thats why some 30 yr old or 22,24,25 yr old who just got their first job or 19,21 with co-signer will buy a home or condo after probation at no matter what price they wish to pay as long as cheap debt and mama and papa’s support…
#33 Crash
Local vancouver paper had a photo of an Olympic athlete (bronze in bobsled) looking at a Olympic condo
Bon Rennie was on the news saying that he hopes/wishes/tokes? that in 2 years we will all look back and wonder why we didn’t buy in this prime site.
I wish Bob Rennie would STFU and go down, the gig is up…its his types that act as cocaine dealers to suckers…he is a marketer….aka supremo BS artiste’
… tipping points being realized all over the middle east, reminding those who choose to see that significant change occurs rapidly, suddenly …
… ideas germinating in the unconscious, small actions begetting larger actions, realizations, shared conversations, manifestations …
… and meanwhile, in Vancouver, the musical chairs, I mean condominium towers, look down as the last of the drunken waltzers gyrate blindly …
… who amongst them will earn the title “greatest fool”, and hear the final fading notes … as the music suddenly stops … ?
By the way, balconies are included in the square footage totals. Extra parking spaces can be had for $20,000. Completion is in 2014, or maybe never.
=============================
Good point:
Check the Local Gov’t Bylaws….they may be different as to how they calculate square footage. Some companies specialize in this issue becuase some Sq Ft claims are in error.
BTW, the area is a shithole
“Not in this lifetime. — Garth”
Sorry but I think you are wrong. The yanks are broke and will never be able to pay back their debt. The Chinese, who can break the US financially, are getting rid of their US dollars as fast as they can. The US dollar will not be the worlds reserve currency for much longer. The bigger problem is how many wars will the yanks start in order to keep their dollar afloat. If all the arab countries overthrow their US backed dictator governments then oil will skyrocket and we will be well and truly screwed. Just watch that bitch Hillary Clinton spew BS everytime she opens her mouth, her country supporting scum bag dictators then trying to say they support democracy, what a two faced cow. I can’t wait for democracy to infect all those countries and then they all tell the Yanks to shove off, oh this is gonna be awesome.
Just watched the Global video in yesterday’s post.
Had never seen what Cameron Muir looked like. Kinda reminded me of an adult Pinnochio. Just saying…..
The Burnaby Sovereign “buyers” were all gone this morning, even though the sale is not open until Saturday. Have all of them suddenly given up the hopes of owning an apartment in the same building with a hotel?…
Or, rather, the publicity stunt has reached its purpose?…
The TV commercial that burst the US housing bubble
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pzim8O7Fd0&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Today in Vancouver, the radio station “News 1130” had a doozer of a headline. Bob Rennie is selling a bunch of the Olympic condos at 30% less that original asking. Should the people who paid full price be able to sue?!!! Are you kidding me??? 60% of responders said no. That leaves 40% of people who think that people that were crazy enough to pay ridiculous prices for a little space in Vancouver should be compensated for their stupidity and greed. So, if they happened to have made a ton of money on the investment they could keep it, but loosing isn’t allowed???!!! I couldn’t believe my ears. This surely won’t end well!!!
Funny to read this about “Global News “and the fake lineups………I am in Asia right now and the headline news on all the networks like Asia News and CNN and BBC and Blomberg etc is all about rising food and oil prices and unemployment and the riots in Egypt and Bahrain and Iran and Tunesia and Algeria etc. There are some SERIOUS economic global problems happening around the world and we are pissing and moaning about fake line ups for a condo in Burnaby?….. I’ve even been razzed here about banning Dire Straits on the radio. Canadians in general have no idea what is going on in the rest of the world. Are we really insulated from it all or the the Hammer of Thor gonna crush us like bugs?
I just looked up the radio announcement from news 1130. It was 34% who thought the people who bought the Olympic condos prior to the 30% discount should be able to sue!!! What are they thinking??
http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/185499–rennie-priority-is-selling-condos-at-village-on-false-
Here’s the news article I just quoted. It was 34% not 40%. Still! Are you kidding me?
http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/185499–rennie-priority-is-selling-condos-at-village-on-false-creek
#40 Smug-R-Us
You’re stupid and an idiot. There, now we’ve said it directly.
Enjoy your real estate, whiner.
ALE
Smug-R-U
Be prepared to be acquainted with the term “cognitive dissonance” over the next 2-3 years.
Fool me once
That’s exactly what happened in the late 80’s. A Hong Kong buyer would buy 5 houses at once and pay full price. So people started to list their house way above what it was worth in hopes a rich Hong Kong buyer would pay full price. A massive onslaught of listings was the ultimate result, which eventually drove prices down again.
“And the average income gain in the country’s largest city in the past year? Zero.”
This really says it all. No average income gain means no extra money to goose home prices up. At best home price increases would be zero.
Global should post a retraction of this “news story” unless they are going to cover how fake it was and how fake the “Asian buyers in a helicopter over White Rock” as well.
$1000 for 3 days of standing in a line? That’s good money! That’s more than the average hourly wage in Vancouver.
Re: #39 Fool me once, “Their (Chinese buyers in Vancouver) only interest is the increase in value in a few years.”
True. Wonder what that says about the China housing-market?
Shouldn’t that be “yummy brownies and squirrel underwear”? I guess they could be interchangeable.
Well the Mississauga condo sold and closes at the end of the month. Listed Feb 4 with five offers by the 11th. The offer accepted over asking and all conditions satisfied. Now the only RE holding is the home we live in. Looking forward to the liquidity and diversification.
#40 Smug-R-Us
Not that I approve of it in any way, but I do believe the abuse of the dawgs will become quite direct in 3…2…1…
Garth, are you still predicting 10-15% correction for 2011?
Shane
The average SFH in 416 now sells for $751,366, or almost 8 times average income, a number which has risen 9% in the past twelve months, or roughly four times the rate of inflation.
———–
So the downsizers or the ones who have seen their houses double or triple over the last decade are locking in their gains, selling to the eager beavers who are moving up in the world and want to showcase their accomplishments.
So yesterday I got my first Canadian Living ever. I promised my husband that I’d start to make dinner once in a while. But I need pictures to get enthused and Cdn living usually has good appetizing ones on the cover.
So imagine my joy when on the cover I see the title “Living Large in Half the Space”. If I can still revel in my real estate obsession while taking up cooking, that can’t be so bad. LOL.
So I grab my tea and flip to page 101 and find out that the couple has just moved into a 2,500 square foot house, dowsizing from 5,000 square foot. Even the page number is ironic.
LMBOROTF
Here’s something interesting from the Vancouver Sun:
Housing is more lifestyle decision than investment, realty chief says
…that’s all the more reason to view purchasing a home as primarily a lifestyle decision rather than as an investment in the hopes of a “quick return”…
So, which is worse?
A) Pushing people to buy over-priced homes because they will always go up
or
B) Pushing people to buy over-priced homes because it’s a “lifestyle decision”
Apparently deciding to buy a $1M house is now in the same category as other “lifestyle decisions” like:
Getting Dental Implants
or
Choosing not to eat sugar
or
Picking the perfect cruise ship for a vacation
#1 AL…i just read your link about CMHC defending them selves and found this one statement…”“The average home equity within (CMHC’s) insurance portfolio is 45%” (“That’s a far cry from the five per cent or less that has been widely — and wrongly — reported in the media,” said CMHC President, Karen Kinsley, in this November speech.)”———–does anyone believe that?I sure as hell do not in fact why would anyone with 45% equity have their mortgage insured through CMHC when its not necessary?
If you disagree please let me know just one thing that US has done right in the past 3 years that deserves attention.
———
It has positioned itself in a way where, if it suffers, all other countries will suffer even more.
#46 Mousey
“….but I felt bad for the young families who might have actually thought that the asking price really was the one million as opposed to the opening bid…”
———————————————————-
You mean the same young families who had better GET THE HELL OUT OF DODGE soon or they might risk losing their shirts, their minds, their virginity and even their freedom for the next 30 plus years?
Sorry about the large caps btw, forgive me Mousey.
There really must be something in the Vancouver water besides fairy-dust that makes everyone there so crazy for houses though.
Even the correspondents are showing sympathy for “young families” who might have hung all their anxious hopes and dreams on getting a real honest-to-God Cambie tear-down for but a mere million. And then they get so sadly disappointed by those shameless real-turds from hell who are just playing cat and mouse games with the buyers.
And now they will be so very disappointed.
Oh, those “poor” people. You know, it really is such a shame how you can’t get a decent home in a run down pre-war neighborhood anymore. Not even a crack shack for a million bucks. It is awful, just awful (sob!!)
Gawd, it makes me cry to hear the sad stories coming out of the West Coast these days. They are really hurtin folks.
Lets send food and blankets. It’s just like Kabul there.
I am amazed that properties in Mississauga and Toronto are still in the upswing. I am in south Oakville, huge treed lots, prime Mini Mansion, trophy wife and golden lab country, and houses have sat unsold since last summer with multiple price drops. My area has seen 10% drops in prices, I am sure this year they will drop at least another 10% and end up wiping out any gains made since the last boom period.
Hello Garth.
The people who recieved $333 a day would be able to buy a 388 square foot condo. Any one getting paid less needs a card board or garden shed condo under a bridge.
Steven
Here is what I think CMHC’s algorithm and modeling is made up. As their computer model likely does not accept negative returns, then it’s all good news. They have taken the simple historical fact that house prices should be about 2-3 times income. Incomes will naturally rise to meet the normal 2-3 times income to house price. That equates into incomes tripling in Vancouver and doubling in Toronto. The 10,000 scenarios are likely percentages of how much houses will continue to increase compared to the percentage that income will increase to match. It would be easy to create many scenarios, as long as you except the tautology that houses increase in price because they are a great investment. Making any other suggestion such as house prices dropping in price while our sick economy scrapes away more of our disposable pay cheque would be akin to questioning if God exists, or the world is not the centre of the universe. Heresy.
” Garth I am curious in what you think will happen to Canada when the USA dollar is no longer the World Reserve Currency? It is coming from very soon. People take your money out of the USA.
Not in this lifetime. — Garth”
Interesting that in a recent Barons Roundtable, Bill Gross agreed with Marc Faber when he said that ” the US dollar is no longer a valid unit of account”. Bill Gross runs the worlds largest bond fund.
Bill Gross uses the media to make money. Surely you have learned that one. — Garth
Canadians needs to stop drinking Jim Flaherty’s “Financial Punch” Koolaid.
Guan-Di on 02.18.11 at 8:07 am
#40 Smug-R-Us
Not that I approve of it in any way, but I do believe the abuse of the dawgs will become quite direct in 3…2…1…
———————
After anger comes guilt, sorrow and then acceptance.
A feeling is a feeling and everyone is will feel what their bodies make them feel. The real estate bears or realists feel anger and the bulls optimism. It is next to impossible to argue feelings away.
If the real estate bubble bursts, all will have suffered in different ways, if that’s any consolation.
The judgers need to understand that judging can only lead to a miserable life. There are 7 billion people out there, all with different points of view, about to do something that goes against their ways dozens of times in one day. They can only be perpetually disappointed.
But just like the buyers in Vancouver, you can’t change their ways by talking to them. On their own, they have to understand that their anger is destroying their quality of life.
Canadians finally getting a look at the black heart of Liberal Socialism and the extremists working behind the scenes to undermine Canadian democracy. Never heard of Kairos or Maurice Strong? Not wondering why this country floundered economically under the Liberal Party Extremists? Shame on you….Canada is a century behind most western countries because of anti captialist policy and ‘sustainable development’ ideology.
Wrong blog. ShootlingLiberals.com is down the hall next to the Creationist museum. — Garth
I am more worried about a stock market crash than a real estate crash. But then again I dont have a mortgage. The TSX is up too high and is due for a correction. Oil on the other hand, with all this turmoil in the middle east, looks like the sky might be the limit.
Equity markets may well correct, but they will not crash. — Garth
If you disagree please let me know just one thing that US has done right in the past 3 years that deserves attention.
———
It has positioned itself in a way where, if it suffers, all other countries will suffer even more.
===========================
The US has probably just positioned itself for another decade or 2 of overvalued US dollar and net imports as exporting countries are not willing to change their economies and the flow of goods.
The US has probably just positioned itself for another decade or 2 of overvalued US dollar and net imports as exporting countries are not willing to change their economies and the flow of goods.
——
Look even Canada is going down the value chain.
Quality of exports has been going down the drain as we increasingly export low added value products to import high added value ones.
@77 Debt’s Dark Embrace:
in April 2010, I was in Europe. Watching Euronews and BBC and seeing what’s happening in the world I felt the (harsh) reality of the day and the worldwide events in their true light.
Then, after coming back to Canada, I felt like I was in a bubble. No bad news, everything on tv looks nice, the world news are buttered so they don’t look that bad and they are a small part of the news anyway. I felt so…. COMFORTABLE! Like a baby in a cradle. It was like I just have to go to work, pay my taxes, enjoy my beer on weekends, be a law-abiding citizen and have a nice quiet life. I will admit: I actually felt good after returning to Canada. And even if I enjoyed that comfort, I realized that the reality here is embellished and the events outside of Canada are kept under a blanket, or something like that.
CNN is like a baboushka network: they keep talking about the same thing for hours and hours, like there is nothing else going on in the world and I find it annoying, so I don’t watch it much. I found Euronews especially varied, well presented and interesting, but they are not available in Canada.
#72…correct.
garth just just not seem to understand what causes hyperinflation or does not wish to admit it. The writing is on the wall in terms of hard inflation. In a properly run “capitalist system” we would be in a profound and 50 year long depression as the incredible debt unwind took place. The off the book debt load worldwide is now in the neighborhood of 116 trillion dollars or 4-5 time world GDP. Unpayable.
We have collectively ignored that fiat currency is not the same as a petrodollar (or god forbid a true solar dollar)….so we are truly screwed.
Screwed not in the petty, mild, rather insignificant way that Garth paints; in a measly canadian real estate collapse…but in a deeper (beauty is only skin deep but ugly goes down to the bone way).
We are now on the latter end of the peak oil plateau….never again will energy be available to humankind in increasing quantities….never again…
that spells COLLAPSE in the full on global sense…
When we see number of global oil production start to actually fall (first 80 mbpd..then 75….then 70)…..then we see full on WAR…my bet is on the Amricans and the Chinese duking it out in the south China sea….
But there is also a good chance that collapse will be so rapid and complete that the white house will have a hard time keeping phone landlines open let alone fielding an aircraft carrier battle group.
most people need to spend less time listening to financial analysts and economic gurus and more time watching the resource sciences and understanding the social nature of human monkeys……
Hammer of Thor indeed…..more like a black dragon over the sun……
No global collapse. No Chinese war. Certainly no American hyperinflation. It must be very heartbreaking to be you. — Garth
Because equity goes up over time as the mortgage is paid off and house values increase.
Missy Bunny is Back!
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+condo+market+showing+signs+life/4307825/story.html
OK bubble heads and basment dwellers……
NOW IS YOU’RE CHANCE :)
FREE HOUSES, THEY PAY YOU TO BUY……..
NO JOKE……..MOTOWN
http://news.sympatico.ca/oped/coffee-talk/would_you_move_to_detroit_if_the_city_gave_you_a_free_house/01a79a4c
#72 Jody.
Agree totally…not with US currency defaulting in my lifetime (in reality, it’s toast but will be propped up for many years by countries, including ours, that need it there)…but with your assessment of Hillary. Can’t stand to hear her spew BS; two faced, socialist, idiot.
CMHC’s 45% claim may technically be accurate, but it doesn’t give any real indication of actual portfolio strength.
This number includes a large group of people who bought in before the bubble and have made actual payments toward principle (ie. real equity). It also includes the fake equity from the inflated bubble price. So someone who bought for $100k in 1998 gets a free $200k or so added to their “equity” because of the bubble. This is added into CMHC’s calculation
However, once all the fake equity disappears, this 45% number will fall hard.
Also, do they count their HELOC exposure as a negative when calculating this average? If not, this statistic is completely discredited.
#100 (UN)realpaul,
ease up, man! That anti-everything-that-isn’t-right-wing-dogma obsession will take you over the edge.
Being convinced is one thing; being convinced without a basis in fact is something else.
Thanks for the post Smoking Man,
Actually I think I would give it a shot if I could get a working visa for the US. Doesn’t look much different from some of the neighbourhoods in Winnipeg.
>#106 CalgaryRocks on 02.18.11 at 10:54 am
#91 john m on 02.18.11 at 9:20 am
>Because equity goes up over time as the mortgage is paid off and house values increase.
Someone also has to cover the processing costs for each of these houses even if CMHC only has to fork over the equity shortfall. Foreclosure in the u.s. is estimated to cost the bank 50k a house. No idea whether the banks will pay that or CMHC.
For the ~18% of mortgage holders that took out 46k or so in HELOCs last year, well, they don’t have quite the equity you are talking about, nor do the 18% that took out 41k the year before and ditto the22% who took out 41k the year before that. If you have a 35 year amortization, 40k is all the equity you would have gained in 5 years.
The rule change about HELOCs seems likely the reason CMHCs calculations came out in the black at all. So on the cosmic payback side, the banks may eat their bad decisions after all.
From Mortgage Broker to Homeless — One woman’s housing bust saga.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/17/AR2011021703960.html
I should have added to #110
Does CMHC take into account a 2nd lien (or 3rd or 4th) when they calculate the equity of their loan portfolio?
Interest rates probbaly wont go up in March. Party is not over yet….
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/18/markets-canada-dollar-bonds-idUSN1825315220110218
>Not in this lifetime. — Garth
I have to agree with Garth. As much as I dislike the yankees sometimes. Don’t bet against the US, or the US dollar. You will lose.
like they are so many winners in the states right now. There are signs that it is already happening. Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.
NY Times – The president of the World Bank said on Monday that America’s days as an unchallenged economic superpower might be numbered and that the dollar was likely to lose its favored position as the euro and the Chinese renminbi assume bigger roles.
“The United States would be mistaken to take for granted the dollar’s place as the world’s predominant reserve currency,” the World Bank president, Robert B. Zoellick, said in a speech at the School for Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins. “Looking forward, there will increasingly be other options to the dollar.”
Mr. Zoellick, who previously served as the United States trade representative and as deputy secretary of state under President George W. Bush, said that the euro provided a “respectable alternative” for financing international transactions and that there was “every reason to believe that the euro’s acceptability could grow.”
In the next 10 to 20 years, he said, the dollar will face growing competition from China’s currency, the renminbi. Though Chinese leaders have minimized their currency’s use in international transactions, largely so they could keep greater control over exchange rates, Mr. Zoellick said the renminbi would “evolve into a force in financial markets.”
http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSISBBVD/LPSIM269/PR
You know that it is bad when they are talking about the Canadian housing bubble as far away as Israel!
http://www.jpost.com/Business/Commentary/Article.aspx?id=208789
FYI my 16 year old son was job hunting and stumbled across that ad. Since Craigslist is well… Craigslist… he has to check out the ‘job’ with us first. It was – “Hey mom can I stand in line for a condo” that piqued my interest. We discussed what it was about and declined to send in a CV.
In hindsight I think the 1K for waiting in line would have been well worth it. I am sure we could have even had him qualified for a 400k 35/5 mortgage.
This reminds me of the PNE of olden days where they would pay couples to walk around holding enormous stuffed animals so that others would assume that actually winning one without losing an entire paycheque was doable.
More on CMHC (moron?)
If banks effectively lend the borrower the downpayment and get CHHC insurance that legally requires a downpayment then:
At best, the banks are thumbing their noses at CMHC and the Finance Minister.
At worst they have obtained CMHC insurance on a fraudulent basis.
They better pray the borrower keeps his loan current. But not to worry, if you can’t pay your mortgage they will lend you more money to pay it.
When it comes to inability to pay the policy is Don’t Say, Don’t Tell and cover it up.
Lack of Loan Delinquencies.
It’s not hard to keep good on all your loan payments.
I am almost positive that on a line of credit you could make a new withdrawal every month and immediately use it to make the payment on the line of credit. The computer would report you made your payments on time. Heck, you would probably soon get a letter offering to increase your line of credit.
More CMHC…
They calculate one half percent chance of becoming insolvent based on 10,000 simulations.
The simulation data is far worse than useless as it leads to complacency.
That data is going to contain past behavior of what happens in a rising house price market and where people had real down payments.
That data will prove useless in a situation where house prices fall 30% and there is negative equity.
Finally, would you go ahead and play Russian Roullette even is there was just 1 bullet and 200 chambers? I would not.
But a CMHC president might, there is, she (wrongly)calculates, 199 chances out of 200 that she wins. And on the 1 chance she loses it is CMHC that goes broke, the executive gets a golden handshake.
To: #52 Utopia on 02.18.11 at 1:26 am
“You can buy a unit in The Sovereign for only $260,000, but it contains just 388 square feet. My Harley lives in more room”. ~~Garth
—————————————-
Geez Louise, after subtracting the balcony that makes these miniature dog-house size units almost as expensive as the one we discussed two days back on UBC. We are talking prices in excess of 700 dollars per square foot again.
You can buy this cool furniture! We probably do not wish to know what it costs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAa6bOWB8qY&feature=player_embedded
#105 cynic with a long view
We are now on the latter end of the peak oil plateau….never again will energy be available to humankind in increasing quantities….never again…
Garth, have you addressed the issue of peak oil in your blog? Perhaps I have missed it. I feel that the declining availability of cheap energy will be the global game-changer but it would be interesting to hear your views on the subject.
#59 TakingResponsibility
Garth, (et al) I am curious as to what your opinion is of the merger between TMX and the London Stock Exchange Group. Should we care?
———————————————————-
OK, I am going to stick my neck out a little today and try to clue you into what is actually taking place. Before I start though I think it is important that I tell you first that I am not a conspiracy theorist. Not even close.
The disbelievers out there will try and shout down my comments as they read them, but,… “whatever” (as the kids love to say).
Yes we should care about this merger. For a host of differing reasons though. There are currently three major exchanges all being merged or sold simultaneously.
The NYSE to European interests (Deutsche Boerse out of Germany), TSX to the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and Australia’s (ASX) exchange may ultimately go to Singapore’s SGX.
There is much speculation that Nasdaq might trade along with an Asian partner if it does not eventually merge with Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as a countermeasure to the combo-efforts of the other big exchanges.
At the heart of that game,… SEC regulatory control and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulations over futures trading. Who has control is at stake. Where control eventually rests is critical.
This is just the beginning of the consolidations.
It should not escape anyones notice though that most of our exchanges are going overseas in one way or another and this is really a huge red flag for our future and the influence we think we have in the world. In better times, this would NEVER HAVE HAPPENED!!!!!!
The spin we are getting is the suggestion that trades will become cheaper if our exchanges are married up with those across the Atlantic.
Size matters they tell us. You know, competition and all that jazz. But just because the guys in charge are shovelling big heaps of shit does not mean we should eat it for dinner. Look instead to the bigger picture.
We need to question of course why none of these major mergers taking place now have our central national interests focussed here on this continent with our own companies at the helm… with greater than 50% of the holdings held here as opposed to overseas? Hmmm?
The biggest shifts in the financial world almost always take place under the fog of war or another similar media focussed event of course. We all know that on an intuitive level, do we not?
Like Egypt, 9-11, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Gulf Oil Disaster just to name a few events that clouded the real news of the day. This one is no exception and it is actually really big news that has almost slipped under the radar.
These financial icons (the exchanges) of our economy naturally represent centers of power and influence. Do not believe for a second the suggestion that we will be more empowered by being grouped with the trading centers of other countries. Cheaper trades is not the end game. That is just bullshit.
The centralization of trading in just a few European and Asian bourses is a component of bringing about control over global financial affairs and reflects on larger efforts to simultaneously (rather, eventually) to introduce a single global currency.
There is not space here for elaboration, sorry.
Many currency converters now carry the exchange rate for the inappropriately named “Special Drawing Rights” (SDR’s) incidentally.
I realize this is mumbo-jumbo talk to many people out there but you really should get familiarized with the term as it is the precursor to a global currency that we might likely contend with some time in the future.
Some prefer to call the evolving world currency the “Bancor” even though that is also an outmoded and hard-to-sell name. Names make little difference anyway. A Rose by any other name smells as sweet does it not?….Anyway….
Nationalism is dead. Globalization, despite its dangers is still the future and we should get used to it as the impacts will be felt everywhere . We all share this planet together, right? The currency union of Europe is naturally the model upon which a global currency will eventually be built.
When? Who really knows? A lot of work needs to be done first and centralization of financial networks is a key component in this evolving process. So it is too with the destruction and reinvention of some of our premier banks and insurance companies who currently hold too much power. Remember Wamu, AIG, Lehman, Indymac and many others? Think about this for just a moment. Lets get back on track now.
The exchanges discussed above are moving (being bought and merged) as just one piece of the bigger puzzle that will allow for a smooth transition of power of the workings of the global financial system towards centralized control and it is very convenient that Europe is the chosen destination for much of the activity.
They do, after all, have the most experience.
It has become all too obvious that the conflicting investment regimes of food and commodity speculation that now drive fear everywhere in the Third world, incompetent and manipulative rating of nations by bond agencies, currency trading and related distortions that drain the resources of weak countries combined with the many imbalances generated therein are all part and parcel of the same big problem.
They create huge inequities by their nature between industries, nations and individuals and are destabilizing the globe as all the while “computer generated trading” wreaks havoc on our systems via mathematical formulae and manipulation and is bringing the world, in fact, to the brink of the next great war.
That cannot be allowed to happen. And so instead we will have more centralized governing bodies that will hopefully act responsibly to divide resources up amongst the many people, companies and countries who are competing for a fair share of the wealth.
All of us in other words will be both beneficiaries and likewise, victims of its success. Power is now shifting to more egalitarian benefactors. We cede control where we are lacking in responsibility and Europe has taken our lead.
We won’t like that one bit, but centralization is ultimately beneficial for everyone. If we won’t accept it on voluntary terms then we will beg for it as the system we now know begins to unravel in the most cruel of ways.
Trust me, it is coming. Sooner than most of you think.
Greetings: # 118 [Antonio]
A great find, I have printed it and am taking a copy into my local bank, one of the big 5. Have also sent link to local newspaper, and to some friends who are still wearing their rose colored glasses.
Economics 101:
flat salaries + high debt = eventual RE price erosion
Yellowknife isn’t immune. A new condo project had Phase 2 (48 condos) sell out in 3 days earlier this week. Today? One of the villas from Phase 1 (which also sold out quickly a couple months ago) is posted for sale already. It won’t be finished until June.
http://www.yktrader.com/index.php?S=HouseDetails&prmItemNumber=90920&prmListType=1
Garth – ever thought about turning your analytical powers loose in the North?
Equity markets may well correct, but they will not crash. — Garth
————
Finally a comment from Garth I agree with, assuming you’re referring to Canadian equities. One way or another you will soon realize that gold is money and the US dollar is doomed, the US economy is in worse shape than it was in 1931, the US is without a doubt a poor country and greatest credit risk / default in world history. Printing is defaulting.
Canada on the other hand is sliding towards communism faster every day. There was a senator from Ottawa on BNN yesterday seriously promoting a minimum income supplement program to rid Canada of poverty once and for all. INSANE! I’m really starting to hate this country. More and more I’m surrounded by idiots!
At least you feel at home. — Garth
I,m not surprised, is this any different than what the news reporting is doing to global turmoil events.
Garth, what about doing a write up about some of the past hidden political agenda of the government that never seemed to have made it to the press or where is our ” Canadian dollar” going since I read in your book “Money Road” (great book by the way) our dollar is backed not by gold but by the US dollar and we all know where their’s is going ?
Are the citizens of Canada as finacially doomed as the those in the US ?
Just how bad can we expect it to get here in comparrison to the US, since most of the real information is kept hidden ? ?
To: #106 CalgaryRocks on 02.18.11 at 10:54 am
#91 john m on 02.18.11 at 9:20 am
#1 AL…i just read your link about CMHC defending them selves and found this one statement…”“The average home equity within (CMHC’s) insurance portfolio is 45%” (“That’s a far cry from the five per cent or less that has been widely — and wrongly — reported in the media,” said CMHC President, Karen Kinsley, in this November speech.)”———–does anyone believe that?I sure as hell do not in fact why would anyone with 45% equity have their mortgage insured through CMHC when its not necessary?
Because equity goes up over time as the mortgage is paid off and house values increase.
You must work for one of the following 1)CMHC, 2) A financial institution or 3) A Real Estate Company.
Not much equity paid off with those stretched out amortizations and low down payments.
Try again.
Global told me they were going to investigate this “paid line up” story. Lets see how much credibility they have to admit they f’d up or butt covered.
#40 Smug-R-Us
On the internet no one can hear you scream :-)
Smug-R-Us: I became a first-time purchaser (in Vancouver of all blooming places) within the last year, as I have a different view of the future
It’s called talk’n your book. You pretty much don’t have a lot of choice right now Smug.
I’ll tell the story again. I met a man in Wolfville Nova Scotia who had a number of successful businesses. He said I go to the States, look at what’s working and then come back here and do the same thing.
Conversely, I look in the States and see what’s not working and try to avoid it.
Smug, it’s so easy to look at the States. Look at one blog, another, check the on-line newspapers, look stuff up on Google Maps. The medium is the message. There ain’t no walls.
Things are getting so bad in Detroit that the city is giving away abandoned houses…..
http://news.sympatico.ca/oped/coffee-talk/would_you_move_to_detroit_if_the_city_gave_you_a_free_house/01a79a4c
Garth I am curious in what you think will happen to Canada when the USA dollar is no longer the World Reserve Currency? It is coming from very soon. People take your money out of the USA.
Not in this lifetime. — Garth
First a bit of background. Sold my house in Ontario in Sept. and glad to be renting in Calgary. Convinced the kids to sit on the sidelines and watch the carnage. Friends back in Ontario have been sitting on two houses for six months, keep dropping the price to no avail. I agree with most everything I read hear but looking PAST the housing collapse which in my opinion is a given, I’m wondering what things are going to look like coming out the other side.
Garth, could you please expand on your comments above in a earlier post. Can the US continue to spend their way into oblivion? Are they beyond the point of no return? Why will they remain as the worlds reserve currency? Why do you think gold will go down. Just as long as the US continue to spend like mad fools and continue putting lipstick on this pig we are going to have more of the same IMO and by that I mean inflation through US dollar devaluation. You must see the spending coming to an end or something I do’t see. In any case if you devoted a future blog to this it would help a lesser fool.
An excellent article on how the middle class became the underclass in America.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/16/news/economy/middle_class/index.htm
“Because it’s wicked hard to have a real estate blog and not make fun of Vancouver, I’ll continue.” – GT
Love it!
We’re definitely the most extravagant clown in the circus.
“If you disagree please let me know just one thing that US has done right in the past 3 years that deserves attention.”
John – I can name 3 – iphone, itunes, kindle, google, oh, that’s 4 – try naming 1 other country that has done anything even close? The Americans, and us Canadians too are the most adaptable.
The Americans well survice and prosper for a long time – they have just lost their way temporarily – but they will find it again
#119. Janie, re: paying couples at PNE…
Wow, so that’s what was probably happening here at CNE, as I looked at those “lucky, skilled’ people with that prize that (almost) any kid would want
—————————————————
There definitely is a lot of construction going on in S. TO. Beware –7am -5pm every day, even on Saturday with some.
Cranes all over.
“Buyers must put down 20%, a full three years before buying – the lost use of which will be used to subsidize the mortgage rate for the first 80 lucky victims.”
+-=Ponzi
Correction, Canada is sliding toward fascism. Even our idiot politicians are smart enough to know that they don’t want to nationalize any business where they would have to actually take on risk and run it, they know it’s much better to give private individuals and businesses the illusion of ownership and control over their destiny but then then tax it or dictate their direction while encouraging the losers and wanna bees to continue toiling on their own dime.
Not heartbreaking at all…just the way things are playing out in the real world.
You know the one where the US Federal reserve (and not the much touted chinese) hold over 5.5 trillion of the US federal debt….
The one where the canadian dollar has now passed par and will probably go to 1.15 US within the next year….
The one where the very respected Hirsch report has stated that decline in world wide liquid petroleum will begin in the next 2-5 years….
The one where Gold/Silver investment pummels overall paper dollar investments…
The one where Wisconsin teachers stage a massed rally to protest a baby cut in their portfolios…cause you can be da.. sure that the long term chances of them getting paid are zero……
the one where real inflation numbers stateside are in the 9-10% range and climbing hard.
The one where farmers in Western canada are aghast but temporarily overjoyed that ag commodities are starting a bull run for the ages bouyed by the twin demons of fiat currency devaluation and the race toward hard assets…..
You know…you have heard of it…..the real world…just outside your door ;)
#64 The truth.
Homes did fall after 2008 [15% my realtor told me] It was the lowering of % rates that created the bubble starting in 2009.
These are CMHC numbers not mine. Accusing me of stuff just shows what shill you are.
#72 Jody wrote (very disrespectfully too I might add)
“Just watch that bitch Hillary Clinton spew BS everytime she opens her mouth….”
———————————————————-
You really pissed me off with that comment.
So take a hike fool.
BoC meeting dates for 2011:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/monetary/schedule.html
God I’mn old.
$700 a squair foot????
I remember a comic issue of “Denice the Menice” where they where in Hawaii and staying at the “Hawian Village” hotel. The gist of the comic was that they where saying that it was the MOST expencive “LAND” in the US of A.
At $150.00 a squair foot. Ya thats right THE LAND.
On Wikiki beach.
Not a hotel room sized condo.
#100 Realpaul was stung by the following…
“Wrong blog. ShootlingLiberals.com is down the hall next to the Creationist museum”. — Garth
———————————————————-
I second that emotion. Too many of the posters here have never met a sitting politician in their entire lives, never mind a really good one from the Liberal side of the Bench and are just shooting arrows of ignorance.
Two of the most interesting guys I ever met and talked politics with were Allan Rock and Paul Martin (I doubt they would recall me however).
Brilliant thinkers, humble too.
A local real estate agent cold-called my apartment this morning, with an opening along the lines of “what if I could help you buy your own place costing no more than what you are paying now for rent?”
I explained where I thought the real estate market was heading and that I would be sitting on the sidelines for the next few years.
His final pitch was that he could get me into a place with no money down as he worked with 2 banks that were helping his clients do this with cash-back offers.
I explained how this type of buying was contributing to the over valuation of housing in the first place and one of the reasons why I would not be buying for quite some time.
The end is near…
#130 S.W. Ontario
The Canadian dollar is primarily backed by debt of Government of Canada, which is to say it is backed by the power of the government to tax its citizens. Unless you believe they’re making up the whole thing.
#141 vreaa
Or you can elect to get back 5%. Assuming the building actually completes in 2014, yeah fat chance, that’s a pitiful return. Orange shorts guy pays more than that.
Ya know…
If we were doctors, I think that we would be pretty worried about our patient.
What are the symtoms of the patient’s illness?
Well:
-the patient exhibits visible obesity.
-the patient is clearly delusional.
-the patient suffers from visible shortness of breath.
-the patient has extremely high blood pressure.
-the patient suffers from acute panic attacks.
-the patient has trouble sleeping because of reported financial problems.
-the patient reports many sharp pains that radiate to it’s extemities.(heart condition)
-the patient reports that some of it’s toes have turned black.(type2 diabetes or frost bite)(either way the patient’s balance will be affected)
-the patient reports that it is suffering from extreme fever and extreme chills at the same time.
-the patient can exhibit overly agressive tendencies when confronted with reality.
-the patient proudly reports that it has multiple personalities and loves it’s dissociative state.
-the patient suffers from chronic depression.
-the patient suffers from a lack of will and has problems making decsions.
-the patient clearly suffers from addiction problems.(plural)
-the patient reports the absence of bowel movements and reports the physiological symtoms of being full of crap.
-the patient has been known to eat it’s own and pass this behavior off as normal.(pathological abuse)
-the patient reports of the neccessity of having to be on many prescription drugs simultaneously.(drug interaction)
-the patient reports getting very little excercise(the exception is walking the ailse at Home Depot)(clearly the wrong type of excercise)
-the patient clearly exhibits bloating in it’s soft regions and withering in it’s muscular structure.
-the patient continues to reproduce when clearly it is having trouble providing for all it’s present children.
-the patient reports having a high fat diet and is unwilling to change.(COPD is suspected)
-the patient is an habitual liar and will doctor the truth to suit it’s needs.
-the patient is observed to be growing out it’s finger nails so that they resemble a claw.(what would the patient be clawing?)(back)
-the patient has also be observed to have had some dental work to it’s upper and lower canines. The canines appear to be much longer and sharper than the other teeth.(why?)
-the patient reports an obessession with the media and television in particular.
-the patient has been observed as being obessed with it’s personal appearance.
-the patient reports having issues with control.
-the patient reports it’s inability to stop spending money that it does not have and will probably never have.
Boy howdy, the patient is one mother woofin’ sick puppy.
Can you imagine the size of the hole that we are going to have to fill in after we bury this fat bas****!
Bill Gross uses the media to make money. Surely you have learned that one. — Garth
Hmmm. I am learning. Can I buy your book?
smug r us
your an eeeeediot
and a song for you to sing in your new real estate purchase…
http://www.bitstorm.org/happyjoy/
http://www.bclocalnews.com/richmond_southdelta/richmondreview/news/116348674.html
ROFL, the headline says it all, mystery solved. Just money looking for a place to be parked, anywhere but the bank. Foundations of a solid market for sure.
TO:#145 CalgaryRocks on 02.18.11 at 1:48 pm
#131 TS on 02.18.11 at 12:58 pm
To: #106 CalgaryRocks on 02.18.11 at 10:54 am
#91 john m on 02.18.11 at 9:20 am
#1 AL…i just read your link about CMHC defending them You must work for one of the following 1)CMHC, 2) A financial institution or 3) A Real Estate Company.
Not much equity paid off with those stretched out amortizations and low down payments.
Try again.
These are CMHC numbers not mine. Accusing me of stuff just shows what shill you are.
My sincere apologies I thought you were supporting CMHC.
Could we ever use this in B.C. but we’d run out of fiberals fast.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Quebec+announce+creation+anti+corruption+unit+Friday/4304310/story.html
Check out these teacher protest in Wisconsin because they wanted to trim salaries a bit. The Feb, State and Municipal governments are going broke. And the Federal Reserve is printing money just so they can buy back money. How in the world can the US escape the inevitable collapse of the dollar.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/do-the-wild-teacher-protests-in-wisconsin-foreshadow-the-economic-riots-that-are-coming-soon-to-america
Doomer fantasy. The teachers and all public servants will soon learn to cope. The rest of America has. — Garth
At this point with the current crop of politicians walking the halls of the House of Commons I’m thinking, along with everyone else, that maybe just maybe we should have given Martin a bit more of chance. We’ve lost all critical thinkers in Canada and replaced them with Corporate Operatives named Steve Indigenous cutouts of Ministers and a Midget in control of the credit card, we are so fudged it’s not funny.
#105Cynic-Oil depletion will be a major problem, but IMO once anyone starts talking about nation labels such as American, etc. you get off track. There are a great many very powerful “Americans” who will be quite happy with a richer, more powerful China and a poorer, weaker USA. In fact, the likelihood is that the average powerful “American” is strongly in favor of this outcome if it improves his personal bottom line. Again IMO people do not comprehend what Globalization is about. Trivia question: when was the last time the USA threatened military action against a nation with huge investment by powerful Americans? China isn’t Vietnam or Iraq-Wall Street loves the China story (and finds the Detroit story to be a real joke).
There was a discussion yesterday, started by Another Albertan or Moneta, about intelligent and analytical people who make uninformed/stupid financial decisions.
I’ve observed this among my colleagues too. But then, when I think that some scientists believe in medieval fairy tales about supernatural creatures, it’s not so surprising in comparison, is it? Brainwashing works even on smart people.
The Bankruptcy Tourist
Ireland : bankrupts must wait 12 years before they are discharged from their debts.
Move to Britain for about six months to prove ,”centre of main interest”and then free of his debts within 12 months.
http://www.insolvency.gov.uk/faq/faq.htm#14
What is a centre of main interest?
Answer: Under the EC Regulation on Insolvency Proceedings if you live in a member state, except Denmark, you can only open insolvency proceedings (make yourself bankrupt) in the country where you have your “centre of main interests”.
There is no definition of a centre of main interests but the Court will usually regard the country where you carry on a business or earn your living as your centre of main interest. The Court will also consider the place where you normally live, i.e. your country of habitual residence. If you are not employed or self-employed your centre of main interests will be the country you normally live in at the date of the petition.
Back to top
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/18/ireland-property-crash-bankruptcy-tourism
March 18th the new rules come into effect?
“Beware the Ides of March………….”
hmmmmm perhaps Shakespeare was talking about vancouvers’ real estate.
–
Not first / last or anything in between, so I don’t really exist which means that someone else is impersonating me. Is there a lawsuit for that?
#53 Get Real — “Hey, I lived in Gander for a while. Truly the “Best people on earth” :)
A buddy told me the same thing as well; over all of Canada, Newfie is the friendliest place bar none. He works for CN/CP; travels one way free, then hitches back to The Big Smoke. Takes three or four weeks.
#70 Sea Wave — Excellent post with a major dose of reality. All things are constantly changing anyway, it’s just that now, people are getting mighty pissed off at understanding how much freedom they have been missing out on, by letting another govt. (the world’s policeman) dictate their own politics.
#72 Jody — “The bigger problem is how many wars will the yanks start in order to keep their dollar afloat. If all the arab countries overthrow their US backed dictator governments then oil will skyrocket and we will be well and truly screwed. Just watch that bitch Hillary Clinton spew BS everytime she opens her mouth, her country supporting scum bag dictators . . .>
Plenty of examples how the US puts their friends to run countries — Pinochet, Shah of Iran, etc. Also agree that H. Clinton and N. Pelosi have no interest in democracy or the US; they are serving their masters from afar.
All things run their course, however and their’s is no different. Good post.
#77 Debt’s Dark Embrace — “Are we really insulated from it all or the the Hammer of Thor gonna crush us like bugs?”
We’re all bugs on the face (surface) of this planet, so yes, Thor’s Hammer will eventually crush us, esp. the unprepared ones. But that is their freedom of choice, to glide smoothly along the crests of life with their rose-colored, Pollyanna glasses on.
Nothing like the experience of life to give them a short, sharp shock in the reality of life!
#102 Moneta — “It [the US] has positioned itself in a way where, if it suffers, all other countries will suffer even more.”
Correct. As Dad (Nostradamus Jr.) says, the US will bankrupt TROTW, by bankrupting itself first (through wars), which is why this is becoming a have-not continent.
We will get what we are given and like it.
#137 Fractional Reserve — Good link. Further proof the elite are driving us into a welfare state. It is almost everyone for themselves, now.
#142 Cookie Monster — “. . . Canada is sliding toward fascism.”
Correct, but it doesn’t really matter anymore who we vote in. Guess a coalition of Libs. / NDP +/- Green may make life more uncomfortable for the elite, but screw them.
We are in charge of our own lives and country, not Harper and his jackbooted cronies.
#143 cynic with a long view — Nice post and well laid out. US Fed now holds more US debt than the Chinese.
Devore at 153 posted the folloing which includes a link to the Bank of Canada balance sheet.
The Canadian dollar is primarily backed by debt of Government of Canada, which is to say it is backed by the power of the government to tax its citizens. Unless you believe they’re making up the whole thing.
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/about/pdf/boc_balancesheet1210.pdf
Devore, I agree that is technically correct. The balance sheet shows that cash in circulation is a liability of the bank of Canada and the assets are government treasury bills and treasury bonds.
But that ‘s really just a “construct”. As a liability the implication is that the bank of Canada or canda itself “owes” something in relation to that currency in circulation.
Well the Bank of Canada might give you a T-bill for a bunch of dollars but that’s a sort of a nothing transaction. (Dollars for Dollars as opposed to Dollars for donuts). And actually I doubt that they would even give you a T-bill for dollars they would probbaly direct you to an investment dealer.
The Canadian dollar is ultimately backed up by the fact taht it is legal tender in this country. Everyone must accept Candain dollars in settlments of debt in this country. And that we have faith in the dollar at least as a short-term stpore of value. (the time it takes us to spend it or invest it)
And we all accept dollars quite happily. Every business and individual in Canada gladly conducts business in Canadian dollars. We do so because it is the law and also because we are confident that we can turn around and spend that cash for goods and services.
And we are perfectly confident that the cash will hold its value long enough for us to spend it or invest it.
The government manages the value of the dollar by attempting to control inflation.
But largely, the value of a dollar is set in the marketplace. Just like the value of a tomato or a car. A dollar is just a bartering currency by which we more easily exchange labour and services and goods for others tomatoes and cars and all other goods and services.
The low rate on ling-term government debt suggests that the market continues to have extraordinarily strong faith in dolalrs and a lack of much inflation. Market may be dead wrong, but that is what the market says.
SCRAP THE LOONIE.
Its an embrassment to have a currency called the loonie or loony (not to mention the twonee or toony).
Let’s start a movement to do the following.
Get the loon off our dollar coin and replace it with a nice maple leaf. Then starting calling it the maple and maybe also change the name of the Canadian dollar officially to the Canadian maple to distinquish if from the U.S. dollar
For the two dollar coin, use two mapleleafs and we can call it the deuce.
Canadian bonds issued by foriegn companies are alread called Maple bonds… so let’s take the next step.
This will be a tremendous boost to the Canadian brand. People would collect our coins all over the world of they had our maple leaf brand instead of the loon.
Totally off topic, but what can I say, GT inspires me:
Call me old school, but I think if you want to drink this, you shoud get it the old fashioned way….
:-o
http://www.theprovince.com/life/story.html?id=4309520
Damn, you beat me to it…
***********************************************
#80 ALE on 02.18.11 at 4:13 am
#40 Smug-R-Us
You’re stupid and an idiot. There, now we’ve said it directly.
Enjoy your real estate, whiner.
ALE
Btw Canadians have stockpiled $1 trillion in cash
——–
Ya. And it’s all in the top 15% because the rest are barely making ends meet.
Bill Gross uses the media to make money. Surely you have learned that one. — Garth
…..Hmmm. I am learning. Can I buy your book?
Now that was a clever zinger – and you posted it.
If CMHC has 10,000 reasons to prove a default rate of less than 1%, you would think the chartered banks (or quivalent) would jump at the chance to assume ALL risk and lend to the 5% – 20% percenters.
Add in the insurance premium as easy profit and the ability to package and sell bundles of mortgages to investors for further income generation – it’s a no-brainer.
I wonder if Ed Clark at TD Bank is aware of what he is missing out on.
Bill Gross makes pronouncements to the media after he has positioned his asset mix to benefit from the ensuing public reaction. I write and advise people. What similarity am I missing? — Garth
Wrong blog. ShootlingLiberals.com is down the hall next to the Creationist museum. — Garth
ROTFLMFHO!
Garth,
Liberals need a no BS leader to bury H and his Corporate buddies… as you say, this blog has a shelf life (R/E is about to finally crash and burn)… so, how about a run next leadership review?
Been there. Done that. Had ass kicked. — Garth
lol, don’t know if this has been posted before, love the comment, no one took it down?
http://www.facebook.com/BosaProperties?v=wall
@125 Utopia, Thank you for that well thought out and reasoned response. Nicely articulated.
From a politics point of view, it is interesting that as markets globalize in a seemingly borderless world – states become more border-conscious and fortress-like.
A judge in the US recently declared the entire MERS process illegal. Now their corporate secretary has been demoted. They still insist at this point to pretend that there is an actual business model behind the company, other than fraud.
How much longer will Wall St. be able to pretend that the whole underlying foundation of MBS is actually worth anything more than $0?
Looks like free houses all around in the US… this should be bullish for netflix and apple.
All those who do not have any gold or silver (atleast 5% in your portfolio) remember to kick yourselves over the weekend.
Unless current trends change, Chicago circa 2041 will most likely resemble Detroit circa 2011 http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/news/local/ct-met-civic-pensions-0210-20110209,0,3379039.story
Here’s David Olive talking about “The dangers in our savings shortfall”
http://www.thestar.com/article/940973–olive-the-danger-in-our-savings-shortfall
So he begins giving reasons for the lack of savings, and starts with very high housing costs:
“One reason is that Canadian housing costs are among the highest in the world. That’s a byproduct of Canada’s desirability as a place to live, as evident in our repeated performance at or near the top of the U.N.’s annual rankings of nations with the highest quality of life.
And that in turn has pushed up housing prices to unaffordable levels. Average home prices in the GTA, Calgary and B.C.’s Lower Mainland far exceed the earnings power of many Canadians to comfortably afford.”
A byproduct of Canada’s desirability as a place to live… right. I stopped reading the article.
Speaking of real estate>>>$42M glass dome approved for Parliament
$42M glass dome approved for Parliament
The federal government has approved plans to build a magnificent $42-million glass dome on Parliament Hill as a new home for the House of Commons — a temporary one.
The Commons will be moved to the fancy new digs while the existing chamber on Parliament Hill is being renovated, a process expected to take about seven years.
MPs and their parliamentary seats will then be moved back to the current chamber, and the soaring glass dome renovated at further expense to house three parliamentary committee rooms.
The federal Public Works Department claims the project will cost $42 million, but won’t say what is included in that amount.
A number of experts familiar with the project have told CBC News that the temporary glass-domed Commons will almost certainly end up costing Canadian taxpayers well over $100 million.
And the Senate wants its own glass dome during renovations to the upper chamber. Officials say that project would likely cost taxpayers as much as the temporary quarters for the Commons. ………………..UNBELIEVABLE ..kind of like the lifestyle of some of the worlds dictatorships…….and taxpayers are dying in the hallways of our understaffed hospitals—–DISGUSTING..this has to come to an end
But you were and remain right, Garth. The following link is to a long article that shows the state of parliamentary government in our nation:
http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/02/18/the-house-of-commons-is-a-sham/
And we wonder that there are problems in finance, the economy – or real estate?
The U.S. will rebound they do not put up with the crap our permissive uninformed Canadian public do……think i’m wrong..how long do you think “H” would last as president? :-)
“Bill Gross makes pronouncements to the media after he has positioned his asset mix to benefit from the ensuing public reaction. I write and advise people. What similarity am I missing? — Garth”
None. Anyone who thinks you’re making big money selling finance books in Canada is clueless.
Meanwhile, Gross and his ilk never make a public statement without first calculating the significant financial repercussions — he’d be a fool not to. Anyone who doesn’t understand that is a bigger fool.
What a JOKE!
>#10 AACI-Okanagan on 02.17.11 at 11:21 pm
>Garth I am curious in what you think will happen to
>Canada when the USA dollar is no longer the World
>Reserve Currency? It is coming from very soon.
>People take your money out of the USA.
>Not in this lifetime. — Garth
I have to agree with Garth. As much as I dislike the yankees sometimes. Don’t bet against the US, or the US dollar. You will lose.
Oh right the US will pay off its entire 200 trillion dollar debt and everything will be OK. Garth where do you come up with such mumbo jumbo? Thats like saying a 500 sq. ft. in VANCOUVER will be 10 million dollars next month! The US dollar is doomed according to Jim Sinclair, Martin Armstrong, James Turk, Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, Ganzalo Lira, Toby Connor, The Chinese gov’t, the Russians, Brazil, Mexico (won’t accept the dollar anymore), Analyst Greg McCoach..the list is ENDLESS and I can fill a page. Garth you’re out to lunch, give us the reasons…
Of course the US (or Canada) will not pay off the public debt. Why should it? Sadly you do not understand national finance. No wonder you’re depressed. — Garth
Garth- you missed nothing.
You took the zinger in stride. Well done.
I’ve observed this among my colleagues too. But then, when I think that some scientists believe in medieval fairy tales about supernatural creatures, it’s not so surprising in comparison, is it? Brainwashing works even on smart people
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We’re all brain washed.
Research has shown that decisions are made before we are consciously aware of them. They are made in the hidden layer and pushed to consciousness.
this tax protest thingy uk uncut is growing
20 chapters created in the us
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Barclays Bank has been forced to admit it paid just £113m in UK corporation tax in 2009 – a year when it rang up a record £11.6bn of profits
……..
The Labour MP Chuka Umunna, who lobbied Barclays’ chief executive, Bob Diamond, to reveal the tax paid by the bank, described the figure – just 1% of its 2009 profits – as “shocking”.
olympic condo fever…Rob Rennie (vancouver’s condo king and in charge of selling the units) says he’s doubling his bet that more than 60 units will be sold in 60 days.
Rennie predicts that “three years from now, those who didn’t buy will be standing on the seawall, regretting that they missed the boat.”
Read more: http://www.theprovince.com/business/Condo+king+Rennie+says+cloud+lifting+over+Olympic+Village/4305574/story.html#Comments#ixzz1EMQgG1xH
Saskatoon paying renters to buy houses
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/dailybrew/saskatoon-paying-renters-buy-houses-20110218-135012-409.html
“Bill Gross uses the media to make money. Surely you have learned that one. — Garth”
That’s News to me.
It’s G-town Garth, but yeah the weather sucks, glad I’m in Italy 15 degrees and sun tomorrow I might go visit a masterpiece or two. It is different here same price as a rat hole in Toronto and I can see Michelangelo, Da Vinci, Raphael, Donnatello all the ninja turtles. Keep dreaming Canada. Your bubble is about to burst
#169 The InvestorsFriend on 02.18.11 at 5:20 pm
Sorry invester, no can do as the “Maple Leaf” is already a Canadian coin.
Look it up. It is the gold coin sold by the banks.
#181 john m on 02.18.11 at 7:20 pm
………………..UNBELIEVABLE ..kind of like the lifestyle of some of the worlds dictatorships…….and taxpayers are dying in the hallways of our understaffed hospitals—–DISGUSTING..this has to come to an end.
Why? They thought nothing of spending a billion $ on a party for some useless posturing just this past summer. (thats right a billion is one thousand millions)
Now thats wastfull. Whould have caused a revolution in just about any other country.
May be time to think of capital punishment for such “treason against the economy and people of Canada. Na, never happen. Too many stupids still support that B*stard!
Of course the US (or Canada) will not pay off the public debt. Why should it? Sadly you do not understand national finance. No wonder you’re depressed. — Garth
Garth can you let us know more about national finance, or do a topic on it. I’m actually interested in learning more about it, and I’m sure many would as well who have no idea how financial politics work.
Thanks!
Bosa denies it on CKNW: http://www.cknw.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocal/Story.aspx?ID=1367059&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Is it me or are the listings on MLS these days VERY expensive? It’s like “asking prices” have gone up by 5% – 10% since the beginning of the year. Sellers and agents are out of their minds.
“beware the Ides of March”
Julius Caesar
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Confiscation Heads up precious metal bunnies — Big Brother preparing itself. Plus Silver How high can it go? Not much if govts. decide to confiscate it.
Inside Job Banxters One and Banxter Two. Does anyone know, or care, what any of these big biz. people else is doing?
Brick Shithouse? The govt. will more than likely screw up their own shutdown.
Ivory Coast Four international banks taken over, and I.C. Two.
Meddle in the Meddle East, plus UK Meddling.
Meddle The real reason why Mubarak was conveniently removed, and is now in a coma. Dead men tell no tales.
The Killing Fields Monsanto. ‘Nuff sed.
Humming Bird a.k.a. drones. Great disguise!
Protests Seems union and other protests are swelling across the US.
Entitlement Programs If one spends three decades putting into CPP or SS, it is not a benefit but a right to have it returned in the form of a pension. That right is going to be downsized soon.
Hillary’s Hypocrisy Don’t do as I do, do as I SAY, and 1:34 clip See for yourself.
Broke Banks want to start paying dividends to shareholders (from taxpayers’ money, of course).
The Law That Never Was The 16th Amendment (to the best of my understanding) has never been ratified — Income Tax.
Bahrain Leading into civil war.
Bank Bondholders under siege in Europe (at least Friday they were).
Gas Rip Off “Unleaded petrol yesterday hit a record £5.86 a gallon while diesel was also in uncharted territory at £6.10 a gallon, or 134p a litre.”
New Brunswick Wind turbines frozen solid. GW?
HAM Radio Operators to be used in emergencies. Expecting something, a FF?
161 City Slicker
Here’s some more reading you may like to read to expand your knowledge
In its Jan. 31 memo to legislators on the condition of the state’s budget, the Fiscal Bureau determined that the state will end the year with a balance of $121.4 million.
http://legis.wisconsin.gov/lfb/Misc/2011_01_31Vos&Darling.pdf
http://m.host.madison.com/mobile/news/opinion/editorial/article_61064e9a-27b0-5f28-b6d1-a57c8b2aaaf6.html
Triplenet, you are a legend in your own mind if you think you made a zinger.