We are the greaterfools. The people that leveraged up and doubled or tripled what they put in are the real winners. They are driving around in the fancy cars and have lived their lives. The people on this blog have been waiting and waiting and waiting but the crash hasn’t come yet.
The only asset class that families have not lost money on is Real estate. ha ha ha the fool who follows is the greater fool! I love it Garth you have the greater fools following you! Just a question when RE prices rise 5% next year what will you have to write about?
I bought in 2000 and leveraged to the tits and kept buying. am I better off for it damn right. I could have lost my money in the tech crash but I was leveraged in the right asset. Garth can’t predict the market and if he was as good as he thinks he is with his sector rotation theories then he would be managing a Mutual Fund. He’s doing neither because all he can do it write and he knows people have limited memories.
Sigh. So little time. So many more enemies to make.
Some days my email inbox is toxic, and there’s no doubt this blog is as popular as I am at the Harpers’. Realtors, bank-bought economists, MSM repeaters and politicians who think they can buy us (and do), regularly piffle me as irrelevant since real estate values have barely budged off historic highs.
And they’re spot on. Of course I don’t matter. No public position or power here. Just a guy in a bunker trying to keyboard between platters of peeled grapes, oiled body rubs and injections. As I said a day or two ago, there’s utterly no evidence anything I write changes a damn thing. As the comments above – culled from recent fan mail – attest, the bulk of the population’s complete ready to gorge on cheap money and indulge in all the house porn HGTV and Home Depot can thrown at ‘em.
But that doesn’t mean I’m wrong. Because I’m not.
In fact each month that goes by escalates the danger around us. Families run up their lines of credit. Newbies pre-approve for bizarre amounts. Average home prices swell. Affordability wanes. Bankers loan indiscriminately. Mortgages get bigger. Down payments get smaller. Risk rises. And most families on your street have most of their net worth in a single asset. So just imagine how that could affect you. It will.
Many times I’ve catalogued the fundamental reasons housing is over-valued and will correct. If this were a stock, it’d be in nose-bleed territory. Like the dot-com wonders, it would be madly trading at ever-higher valuations while the company was profitless. Remember when the tech-heavy Nasdaq hit 5,000? That’s real estate now. The index then lost 80% of its value, and ten years later is still off by half. That’s real estate later.
Of course, you can use technical analysis to track these values and arrive at the same conclusion. Or you can correlate the recent housing binge with the availability of dirt-chap money. That’s what economist David Madani has just done in a report for Capital Economics. If the Bank of Canada starts to normalize interest rates (which it will, according to the guy who runs it), then Canadian real estate values could fall by 25%.
After all, he says, we have seen housing price inflation in Canada equal to that in the States between 2001 and 2005, so what would we not crash in the same fashion?
“Even small rises in official interest rates have been shown to have a big effect on homeowner confidence in other countries under similar circumstances as they can change perceptions towards the housing market very quickly. If the Bank of Canada does resume its monetary tightening this year, this could easily prove to be a tipping point for a house price collapse.”
A true statement. Like I said, most people have never had as much debt. Wages and salaries are not growing to match. We now owe more than Americans do. Our retirement savings (as shown yesterday) suck. The average down payment is just 7%. The vast majority of new mortgages are 5/35 bombs. And the media is whoring away in the rear cabin of the Hindenburg.
How many times does Mark Carney need to warn us? Why did borrowing for 35-year mortgages increase right after F said he was banning them? And how can we repeat the same mistakes the dumb Yanks made without similar consequences?
BTW, Pete lives in the middle of Silicon Valley, one of the highest-income areas in the USA. He tells me a brand new 23-storey condo development in the heart of San Jose has just thrown in the towel. After zero sales, it’s turning into a rental.
“Did I invest in a Silicon Valley home of my own? Hell no, Garth, I rent. 10 years ago, all I heard was “You’re foolish to not buy”. Now, I get “You’re smart to rent”. I’ve learned a lot in 10 years. Keep in mind, San Jose is right in the middle of Silicon Valley. Some of the highest salaries in the country. And they can’t move condos. But everyone says “it’s different here”.
And did you hear that over 18 million houses in the US – 11% of all the real estate there – are now vacant? As one smart American media guy put it: “Younger Americans have seen what home ownership has done to their friends and families, and many want no part of it.”
So, there ya go. I may be inconsequential, but at least (as the girls say) I’m consistent. Assets fueled by rapacious greed and explained by ‘it’s different this time’ are the most prone to tumble.
But wait. See for yourself. Care for a grape?
204 comments ↓
Some interesting anecdotes from Americans dealing with underwater mortgages and predatory lenders:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/03/learning-to-walk-underwater-mortgages_n_818315.html
Those pesky interest rates…
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/headline_news/article.jsp?content=b5846334
Garth, I’m sure you will be proven right. Trees don’t grow to the moon. Eventually, any bubble bursts. But for the time being, you’re wrong. Even if average prices are skewed by more expensive houses being sold, this is what people look at and even if all of them are blind to the reality that this can’t go on forever, they are ultimately the ones who pay the dough and they keep this market going. With all due respect (and I have a lot of respect for you), you are wrong till you are proven to be right, but you have to wait for it for a while. The only interesting bit here is how long this “while” will take… Some dawgs are tired of waiting and start questioning what the heck they are doing by listening to you, because their friends who took the risk and bought a couple of years ago are laughing now…
Is that not my point? — Garth
And THAT… investing the net proceeds and using the monthly income to pay the rent is what home ownership can do for you. Can’t do that with a rental you don’t own. And while some may say you invest the savings which eventually grow to such a substantial amount I suggest you look at the historical cap rates on residential rentals and try convince me they aren’t going back to that. Landlords expect a return on their investment and generally speaking they are a smarter bunch than to in perpetuity base it on historical values rather than present.
“Webpage can not be found” If there is such a page you are reading it wrong. I just pulled the stats (raw) from the system; average price of the 116 single family homes sold in January = $491,097.00. Of the 96 the month before the average price was $513,486 and in April 2008 of the 270 homes sold the average price was $596,875.
I would give you the benefit of the doubt and think maybe you were looking at aggregate stats for all residential segments but even then the numbers do not jive.
1351 Ladner Sold on January 26 of this year 2011 for $367,000 after 286 days on the market against the last list price of $399,900 which was reduced from the original list price of $439,000 to $424,900 and then to $414,900 before finally being reduced to the $399,900 which led to a sale.
Am I correct? Tell #194 robert james so he knows I know what is and what isn’t.
};-)
D.A.
’tis still this day
100% of Canadian mortgages are the equivalent of those “exotic” rate reset mortgages in the US that got everyone into trouble (since we don’t have 30-yr loans).
Yes – most Canadians lock in for a fixed rate, but all that does is push the pending disaster 5 years down the road.
0%/40-yr mortgages start renewing this year… luckily, most of those buyers have made some equity gains from 2006, so they might be able to renew without getting slammed with a sky-high rate. However, the 2010-2011 5%/35-yr crowd will not be so lucky in 2015-2016. Interest rates will be higher, house prices will be lower, and every 5%/35-yr new home buyer will be underwater.
Hi Garth,
People are in denial and refusing to accept the reality because most Canadians are living in a fantasy world thinking Canada is different. Please read “The Portent of Doom on the Housing Market Collapse” which is another good article to read.
Thanks Garth keep up the good work.
Thaya.
“Care for a grape?”
Let them eat cake.
I rent a nice house in Edmonton for a thou a month. Down the street a similar house is listed at around 400g’s. I think the neighbourhood fancies itself a bit posh- all professors and doctor’s and the like.
But, the writing is on the wall.
Funny, though. I may be some psychological microcosm, but a few years ago when all we twenty-somethings were chomping at the bit to get a house, it was all I wanted. MLS was like a drug.
We never bought. Mostly because this blog.
Now, I don’t bother. I don’t care. I rent, and still plant a garden, have a dog and a garage, and all that for a fraction. If e-town dries up, we move to Calgary, or Fort Mac or Fort Nelson.
Wherever there’s that beautiful black stuff in the ground.
The people who hate your guts are the ones with vested interests. Their prosperity depends to what extent you are wrong, Garth.
Ignore the illogical thugs. You created the blog to let people know what you feel is right. Many people reading this blog may take the risk of investing in RE now which is entirely their lookout. You are doing a service and we are grateful to you for that.
I guess the RE pumpers do not see the mess in the south of the border.
Not Harpers Garth. No plural is needed. If you check out Steve Harper’s websites, all pictures of him together with Laureen have been removed.
The Harper’s so called Dec. 2010 Christmas card was three photos from last October Thanksgiving portraits photoshopped into one seriously weird looking picture.
Check it out:
http://tinyurl.com/Laureen-can-t-keep-hands-off
And I don’t care whether Laureen took off on Harper or not. I care about Harper LYING ABOUT IT 24/7 for YEARS. That’s what makes me sick.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
So the Harpers are Separated. It Was no Big Secret.
Spector’s never been one of my favourite columnists, but why should he be fired over something so silly? And why pull the story? Most of us already knew and nobody cares.
http://pushedleft.blogspot.com/2010/12/so-harpers-are-separated-it-was-no-big.html
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.♥
When I (as a non-realtor) see a house for sale on MLS and then it disappears, is there an easy way to check what it sold for?
http://www.omreb.com/page.php?sectionID=2 You read the Jan. stats .I see $436,913 for the average residential house price for Jan. 2011 and the median at $410,00..
Garth prices are NOT going up. They are not going down as much as the Blog Dawgs think but they are certainly not going up. I don’t care what anybody says. As I have pointed out in the past, you can pick select micro markets all you want as example for each up or down I can provide one which is down or up. Let’s look at the WHOLE market in any given city let alone the country.
What is happening is we are carefully and slowly getting to where we need to be. It’s all good. Why do you find need to inflame the matter? Don’t be so impatient. Don’t you think better to get where we need be with a little less havoc. We are getting there. Just because they turned the taps on full blast to find the market could not handle the torrent does not mean they should shut them off all together to fix it.
I can tell you from my experience that both buyers and sellers alike are moving forward very slow and cautiously. The time they are taking to make a decision has easily doubled. Even when there is a time sensitivity to it they will not be pressured into making a rash decision. I’d say that is all good, reduces my hourly average of course (and you all thought things would put the pressure on to reduce commission rates) but bodes well for some stability ahead.
Actually, San Jose is not in the middle of the silicon valley proper, had Pete bought 10 years ago he could’ve made a bundle, and the 11% vacancy number is quite suspect.
You found me out. I make it all up. — Garth
All I see from the despicable realtors these days is fear-mongering.
Like this jackass.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJ0XouOE4TQ
DA: You seem to be copy/past challenged. Let me help you out….
OMREB
#10 Soylent Green is People
Isn’t it in the Canadian Constitution that any PM’s spouse that become estranged must hang out with a surviving Rolling Stone ?
Im reading almost on a daily basis, how Canadian wages continue to rise.
“The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
Now we see that the housing market in Canada still has to try one more kick at the can – in desperation.
After a brutal start to the new year here in Calgary, the lemmings seem to have gotten some life and are lifting the expensive end of the market. Those of us who thought that there should have been a correction by now will just have to wait until the tulips bloom.
PS: The long bonds are really starting to move. Especially those of our southern neighbour. Be aware.
” I bought in 2000 and leveraged to the tits and kept buying. am I better off for it damn right.”
Questions:
Are you M or F?
What IS your bra size 22 DD?
If you are leveraged to the knockers….that still leaves about 30 % of your height to be leveraged.
Ever heard the one about the guy that fell into the full septic tank ,over his head….but didn’t want to open his mouth to yell for help, for fear of swallowing U Know What?
Ain’t photoshop great? Not only did both wheels fall of but they took the brake callipers with them!
I’ll have a grape, thanks. And a rub down from one of your girls, if you don’t mind. Mine are busy detailing the “truck with balls”.
I have to admit that the way CMHC and the CBank floated real estate after the crash was very crafty. I would have expected more downside since the 2007 peak than we’ve got. Which is why I don’t ascribe to Garth’s 15% then slow grind theory. We’ve pumped a lot more air under our market than the US did. \The reason there is no subprime market in Canada is because it’s been impossible not to qualify for a 35 year am, 2% rate, near zero down mortgage in Canada. We don’t discriminate and charge the higher risk folks more. We actually charge them less than a low ratio borrower can get without CMHC. Which says something about who the banks think is actually going to pay them back (CMHC for the slow kids.)
But anyway today’s hate mail is no more than a guy bragging about how he’s “all in” at the poker table because he’s been winning all night. Same treatment every patsy gets.
Anybody here see “Indecent Proposal”? The only thing indecent about the proposal was all the angst (A million dollars for a weekend with my wife??? “Smooch. Have a good time and see you on Monday!”) But the lesson that there is always a better hand in the lead up is an important one. And sometimes the guy running the table (banks) will cheat.
I know Garth just hates this, but anyone who bought gold in 2000-2006 instead of real estate is now ahead of home owners even after paying taxes and rent. There is always a bull market somewhere. And right now, it isn’t housing.
Bottom line: If you’ve bought in 2006 or later, you won’t get your money back after realty fees. Since the average person moves every 5 years, this hasn’t been a market to own. It means everyone who bought in the last five years will loose money on selling. (Except Vancouver, they defy gravity on the coast, but at their peril.) Might still have been cheaper than renting, but not by as much as you’d think.
Real estate is going to revert to the mean, which is 2% growth in inflation. Or so say the CBanks. But I think it’s closer to 5%, so a pull back to a 2% trend line is a buy.
#11 Elmer
Ask your realtor. They have expanded access to MLS and can see the all sales and listing prices on a property. They can even see every single list price through all the reductions.
Or wait till spring. Most of those listing are “hibernating”.
We see it John and we see the trouble in Cairo and we saw the riots in Greece. But we don’t see it so much here.
BTW Garth has suggested on these sites that it might be a good time to buy USA. My experience is when the USA has hit bottom, as by that comment Garth must believe it has, Canada’s not far behind… thing of it is we never did fail quite so much wouldn’t you agree.
The US fails… it eventually hits Eastern Canada, then Alberta and then Vancouver and then Kelowna. If the US picks up before the ripple reaches Vancouver it never gets to Kelowna. That’s the way it works. So to I suspect might Canada never feel that tidal wave of economic despair you all think as before it does the US will calm the waters.
Hey… could happen. Not any less likely than what you believe… believe it or not.
Wow… now that was a roll… I’m done. It’s 8:30 and I’ve got a lot of work to do still in preparation for a big day tomorrow. I’m thinkin’ it was a most successful day though, got some good real estate business done, no sales but a good day none the less and come on I MUST HAVE WON OVER AT LEAST ONE BLOG DAWG WITH MY INFALLIBLE LOGIC…. any takers? Aw come on…
};-)
A.D.D.D.A.
Is DA bi-polar? Up-down left-right…..drunk or seriously scatter brained. I think I’m going to do what most are now doing and skip his ramblings.
#11 Elmer
When I (as a non-realtor) see a house for sale on MLS and then it disappears, is there an easy way to check what it sold for?
===================
When I’m curious, I call up the listing realtor. I have never had a realtor NOT tell me the sales price.
OR….In BC, the actual sale prices show up quarterly in the BC Assessment office…check your own jurisdiction
interest rates and the price at the pump keeps the sheeple alive.
KaPOW,,, BOOM, BOOM, POW, Pop, Pop, Pop, Pop, Pop, Pop. KA-freakin-BOOM
I love the smell of Napalm in the morning.
};-)
I’m really surprised it is taking this long for this debt/RE bomb to go off. It’s kind of like sitting through hours of movie trailers waiting for the feature presentation to begin.
Hi Garth, pay no attention to those RE scammers. I went to a ‘free’ Rich Dad seminar just north of Toronto last Friday. They were pumping their courses saying ‘so and so made $x after only 3 weeks of graduating from our Rich Dad course’. Problem is, what they say is sort of correct in theory, but not totally correct in reality. Being a former real estate appraiser, I know. Those scammers tell us you can ‘assign’ a contract if you contractor walks out. Who wants to take over a job from someone else who did it half heartily for the balance of the contract? In fact it will cost you more because the second contractor coming on the job will have to remove everything and start from scratch. As this contractor can’t vouch for the work already done. Of course they make it sound so easy in real estate, when in fact it is not. What they don’t tell you is you have to be aware of what is going on and you have to be looking over the contractors shoulder to ensure the work gets done right the first time. Oh sure those RE scammers say you can ‘hire’ someone to do that. Who has the money for that and how do you know that the job is getting done correctly and to code? The answer is you don’t. As a former real estate appraiser, I have seen some renovation projects that were never completed but were started with such fanfare. “we’re going to renovate the kitchen, the family room, granite countertops…”. I would have to nod and smile, because I was appraising the house as I saw it that day, not down the road when the renovation might, if ever, get finished.
As an aside, appraisers and real estate agents have a mutually assured dislike (m.a.d.) for each other. 1 is trying to sell the house, the other is there for the bank. Thus the subtle animosity towards each other, but naturally the RE agent got paid more than the appraiser and had the attitude to boot. All sellers think their agent can walk on water and think the appraiser is out of this world with their valuation of the house. Sometimes the appraiser can be off, but not by much. Appraisers have what you would call a universal standards of practice for Canada. RE Agents have a different set of rules: lye, cheat, steal to get the listing then everything else is gravy.
In the meantime, keep up the good work on the blog. If nobody else will cheer you on, then darn it, I will. Go get ’em Garth and knock ’em dead. Not literally of course, just figuratively. I don’t want to be held liable for encouraging murder on the net.
Been down in Arizona for the past couple of weeks, vacationing and looking at potential wintering homes. And I’ll tell you this: Land has plunged – HARD. I looked at lots that changed ownership in the 2005-2007 period for $150,000 – $200,000 and today are on the market for $30,000 – $50,000. And there are precious few takers. Houses that were sold at the top of the bubble for $500,000 today are on the market for $200,000. And generally not selling even at those prices.
I’ve checked a lot of areas – from hoity toity North Scottsdale to middle of the road Lake Havasu. Granted, it’s not a total cemetery down here. Some higher-end properties in better neighbourhoods are moving – at half the price they once were. There will always be rich people who can afford it. But plain, everyday stuff just isn’t happening.
I have a question for all those Canadians considering buying down here, as several dawgs have recently suggested they might do. We’ve all heard it – sell Canadian, buy American. My question: What are you going to do with it after you own it? There are HOA dues to pay on condos, annual property taxes, sales tax, property management fees (anywhere from 20 to 35% of gross rent), utilities (air conditioning costs are through the roof), maintenance costs (made only more difficult because you live in Canada), a huge tax hit on rental income, and a 30% hold back fee if and when you sell it for a profit. Not that you’ll sell for a profit anytime soon. Even realtors are of the mind this market is staying down for years.
Where I am, the mania is as dead as dead can be. I personally bought and sold a few hunks of land down here during the run-up between 2000 and 2005. It was crazy. Rich Californians (the rich Asians of the desert run-up?) grabbing anything they could find. But today, land is nothing. Nothing. I looked at one particular lot that sold for $115,000 in 2006 ad today languishes on the market at $20,000. One SIXTH of its value just five years on. And NOBODY wants it.
Sorry for rambling. Still would like to see replies from anyone considering buying down here. And one final point: How so many Canadians can believe we’re immune to at least some of this carnage when our country DEPENDS on this country, is beyond me. Mainstream media? Easy credit? Realtor chants of “Buy now or be priced out foever”? The vile “Property Virgins”? Obviously that’s part of it. But my god people, open your eyes and look around.
There, I’m done. I love the desert, but even at these prices, I’ll be renting when I make my next winter break.
http://www.bclocalnews.com/richmond_southdelta/richmondreview/news/115210919.html
Richmond’s red hot real estate market continued to sizzle last month, with the median selling price and benchmark price of a house both topping $1 million for the first time ever.
According to statistics released Wednesday by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, detached home sales rose 24.6 per cent in January compared to December, and were up 43.3 per cent compared to the same month a year ago.
At the same time, the median selling price of a house hit a record $1,021,500, up 8.6 per cent compared to a month earlier, and 20.3 per cent compared to January 2010.
Richmond realtor Tony Ling said a lot of people are buying lots to build their dream homes.
It’s become commonplace in Richmond that a standard 66-foot-by-120-foot lot sells for north of $1 million.
“Nobody can keep up with it,” Ling said.
The vast majority of the money fueling the hot market is coming from Asia, Ling said.
The harmonized sales tax has also played a factor, prompting Asian buyers to purchase their own property rather than buying a finished brand new home from a builder, he said.
A $2 million home would come with a $240,000 HST bill, and Asian buyers are opting to purchase the lot themselves and then bringing in a reputable builder to build a customized home.
“There’s not enough lots to go around,” Ling said.
While it is a seller’s market in Richmond, buyers are still wanting to purchase lots in quality neighbourhoods where new homes are commonplace.
“Nobody wants to be the first $2 million house in a neighbourhood,” he said.
It’s currently a good time to sell, because interest rates remain low, and the prices won’t continue to go up forever, he observed.
==================================
I also heard on the local news the same thing re Asian (main) buyers of SFH….and that the local BC condo market is slowing down.
So…..we have niche buyers choosing SFH in niche areas. This may spell doom for the multi- family market, with many developers suffering.
I live on Vancouver Island and watched the evening news out of Vancouver on Global tonight. One of the highlights: housing prices are expcted to fall by 25% in many areas, just as you’ve been predicting.
Zero 40’s from 5 years ago will be allowed to renew with 35 years left. So that is not the problem.
The real problem will occur when floating and other low interest rate loans renew at higher interest rates down the road. If/when interest rates rise or people become scared to renew floating and want to get a fixed rate that payment is going to be a lot higher.
And if they have equity in the house that will be good, but it won’t really help them make the mortgage payments. (Well not unless they want to take out a second mortgage as a line of credit).
Basically there is going to be some belt tightening for some people. Others will have gotten big raises and so they will be okay.
Some will hit up parents for a loan. Most will get through this scarred but alive. But some will surely declare bankruptcy and get a do-over.
Those who have already paid off their mortgage will watch and may take a guilty pleasure in others misfortune.
Garth when you said it in your book Sheeple page 44, Harper wasn’t done yet. “sit down.” Your a journalist,” he said, “and we all know journalists make bad Politicians. Politicians know how to stick to the message. That’s how they are successful. Journalists think they always have to tell the truth.
In other words Harper is telling you that speaking the truth is not the way to go. You are a failure because you want to tell the truth. Need more be said about this prick that is our supreme leader. He is a pathological liar. Need I say more about our Plutocratic PM. There are going to be a lot of disappointed people that believed in the PROFESSIONAL ECONOMIST HARPER’S GONG SHOW. Stand by for the melt down.
Hey Junius
Unlike you, I do more then peruse doom and gloom sites for misinformation, so pardon me that I am late in responding to you.
Wow, dude the stats, way too much time on your hands! Cant be bothered to read them, they are irrelevant as prices are through the roof and there is no QUALITY supply ( I am not talking garbage condos and east van specials)
Of course spring will see a flood of listings..IT ALWAYS DOES..and they sadly then will sell, sell sell…. and prices will raise, raise raise and your anger and bitterness will grow, grow, grow…
and yes, go on in your deluded world that anyone who contradicts you is a pumper or perhaps F or carney cuz this site is SOOOO important to move and shake the real estate world….
sleep well my prince…
Hey guy, hang in there. Sounds like the amateurs are getting to you. Your reasoning
is sound, Your position is good.
There is no difference between a gambler and
a so-called ‘investor’ who has no understanding
of basic economics or history: except the ‘investor’
is just full of buzz words from tv money shows,
which he uses to describe how brilliant he is.
(he tells the Vegas hookers the same, till the
money is gone).
They sound like the guy who insured his house
for 100% -then years later wailed about the
premiums, because there never was even a grass fire.
Sound investment costs some ‘insurance premium’ It is usually a profit that you did-not-make (foregone), by sticking to a reasoned strategy. You forego a few thou, but preserve
the capital.
90% of the fed’s strategy is to prevent a Cairo in
the USA. Why fiddle with the preliminaries? Stop
the big one is the goal.
Liquidity drops by a few millimeters every week,
every month, but –we dont notice– It takes years of this to adjust the system to devalue the $$. The fed has patience –and no choice anyway,
nor do the Chinese, or anyone else. –See, why exGoldman employees work for the gov?: Nxt Day.
It is the Treasury dept’s ‘West Point’
Careful, Its the year of the Rabbit: Eat your carrots, and carry a thingy in your passport.
cheers, Ken S in LaLa-Van :-)
from 2/2/11 #77 gpoz
Three are just too many players with vested interests in high house prices for everything to just suddenly fall off a cliff….nobody can afford it!
Listen to the man gee/poz and then ask yourself if there weren’t players with “vested interests” in Las Vegas/Miami/Phoenix etc. Humans are afflicted with a weird kind of hubris that makes them think they control stuff–especially where they don’t. And that includes real estate, big time.
–
“Sigh. So little time.” — Accurate, but the same happened in Rome as their demise was unfolding. Cue Caligula and Nero!
*
#4 Devil’s Advocate — Noted, but one thing working against us is time, and our number (hers or mine) will be up one day. If I’m left behind, the last thing I would want is a 2600 sq. ft. home for one person.
I’m not greedy — a rented condo would work just fine, but that’s my POV.
*
Egypt . . . and the cause was (see the headline) . . .
Credit Cards Good for ice scrapers and book ends.
CC Crank up the booga booga — look who has just bought in to control the misinformation!
Taco Bell and KFC Fake meat, fake food — even junk food can’t be trusted these days!
US Fed The fed has overtaken China for one thing.
Unsubstantiated Rumor Prince Charles is in the beginning stages of Alzheimer’s.
Rich starve the poor — depopulation.
Obama and Google In bed together and loving it.
Curious that on Feb. 1, Obama ordered Mubarak to allow a CIA takeover of Egyptian military and police forces or face “immediate and permanent removal”, a.k.a. assassination. As Obama takes his orders from Soros (who bankrolled him), things may heat up shortly, and not just in Egypt. With the CIA implicated and the Mossad firing shots, chaos is the word of the day. Further.
Sheeple are being rounded up by the elite. GW — where have you gone? 5:11 clip HAARP responsible for blizzard? You betcha!
“whoring away in the rear cabin of the Hindenburg”
After last night’s “pass the weed”…
Your killing me…
Thank You
From: Beelzebub, Chairman, Central Bank of the United Planets
To: A Planet in the far reaches of the galaxy that does not seem to be adhering to our laws regarding telecommunications, seemingly called Earth judging from the text.
Re: Prayers.
Citizens of Earth, (We presume Earth is the correct name by which you call your planet)
We have a large number of spam prayers in our junk email folder that have originated from your planet. Most of these involve hopes to sell your teepees at a higher value than you bought them for. We believe this to be spam mail or “prayers” for the following reason: Any body can, if they so chose to, bring a bunch of foliage together and construct a temporary shelter. Whether that shelter lasts a single season or several seasons is not of concern to us, our permanent shelters last multiple eons in your earth time.
What confuses us is why you keep sending us transmissions besieging us to somehow increase the value of your foliage based teepees. We cannot do so, as they last for so short a time and are of so little effort to construct, and also offer no productivity.
That you would lend each other real commitments, based on the supposed value of this piled up foliage, is for us unfathomable.
You may, of course, continue to pile up foliage as is necessary for your own survival. But we will not buy it or lend against it, as the Central Bank of the United Planets is not in the business of loaning against such endeavours. We need a real return in productivity, as per our mandate.
Please stop spamming our inbox with prayers hoping to the contrary. Otherwise we will cut off your IP address.
Sincerely.
As above duly signed.
Garth,
More evidence the agents are getting desperate out in Vic-Town, with only 300 odd sales means only a third of the agents here put bread on the table last month. I can see the desperation when they walk their clients into a potential disaster when the selection is building by the day.
A family member just had their rental put up for sale by their landlord who is gouging for this dump 10% over assesment when it needs like $50K easy of fixups. Funny part is, this moldy shack gets a building inspection via a potential buyer and numerous items come up like mold, shoddy electrical and HVAC problems, illegal suite, and not to mention the now condemded deck.
The best part is the bidder’s agent is actually still trying to work the deal out instead of turning and running like any sane person would do ! I’m not sure who I hope gets burnt worst, the dumb buyers with the idiot realtor desperate for the sale, or the greedy bitch landlord who has neglected the place til she wants to sell it while trying to gouge this piece of shit when it’s worth half at best. I’m seriously leaning to the latter.
I can’t see a bank wanting to lend out on a bad inspection report like this but then again, sugar plums and fairies always seem to float out of someone’s ass in this town. I’m sure CMHC will check the postal code and do their best to “make it work”. “Ethics” is now so passe’ in this town.
“I went to the roulette table and bet my life savings on red, and I won! See how SMART I am?! I KNOW money, and everyone else out there who didn’t get rich like me is STUPID!”
Elmer, you could ask a Realtor for comparables for the area in which the house that sold was (to see what it sold for). That probably would cost you money though. Or you could wait till the next year and get the sales information at tax assessment time off of your municipality’s web site. I live in Calgary, and I can definitely pull sales results from the past 3 years from the City of Calgary’s website (for any house or condo on any street). By the way, it’s amazing how many people will call you stupid, or imply that you can’t count or can’t read on this blog. Funny how that is…
moving assets into a TFSA: can they be put in at purchase price or does it need to be current market price?
Market price. — Garth
This was linked to yesterday but not specified what was linked to
Michale Lewis (the American writer) in Vanity Fair on the Irish RE and banking bust
Sad that he’ll be writing the same about Canada soon.
From Canadian Press:
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/interest-rate-rise-could-trigger-house-price-collapse-20110203-113320-984.html
When the media is swaying with conflicting reports it shows the melt has begun. There was an earlier post that as soon as one person begins to doubt if their purchase was timely a chain reaction will begin.
My realtor says listings in Vancouver are up approx. 25% since the Jan. 18 annoucement of the removal of 5/35. That’s a large increase in RE listings for Winter. So we wonder what Spring will bring.
(canadian) housing prices to drop 25% over the next few years.
http://www.thestar.com/business/personalfinance/article/933010–housing-prices-to-drop-25-over-next-few-years
A nice round number. So many crystal balls with so many guesses. Someone must have a perfect crystal ball, or it may have been shaken a bit too hard.
Dont wory, be Happy … ?
Garth I enjoy reading your blog, but I cant stop thinking about the drawbacks to CAD if interest rates were increased.
Raising interest rates is a key argument as to why the housing industry will dry up. Tell me why YOU think this will happen. Becuase F Says so ? Not good enough. Tell me why YOU think it will happen.
Here are my thoughts:
1) Raising interest rates will cause the CAD Fed gov to spend more $$ paying off the huge debt. Think they want to do this ?
2) Raising interest rates will cause the Canadian dollar to be more attractive to investors, and the CAD will go higher compared to US$ ; Killing manufacturing and exporting, and in turn killing enconomy and housing.
3) US$ already has such a huge debt, they cannot possibly raise interest rates. Its an empty threat. The US will continue to monetize until the $$ is worthless keeping rates close to zero just like Japan did for 20 years because they HAVE NO CHOICE.
4) Canada, sorry to say faithfully follows our buds in the USA
Think about it, will Canada rise rates and strengthen the CAD ?. Suicide
If the US or Canada was truly serious about putting a stop to irresponsible lending, they would simply raise the down payment to 20%. Changing the amortization to 30 years and keeping 5% down is a joke.
Loose lending, free money is the new norm.
Inflation will be the new norm
Because of inflation, housing prices will stay stable in price, but lose in REAL terms
My fear is that inflation will take off big time, and any investments I make will not keep up.
Why do you continue to call for house killing / country killing higher interest rates ? I honestly dont get it.
And finally, a question: how does one invest to protect against inflation ?
Oh, and here’s a link that shows you what happens to people who dare to tell the truth during a mania phase (as if you didn’t already know first hand):
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/merrill-fired-analyst-who-angered-huge-bank-clients-before-financial-crisis-says-michael-lewis-535889.html
If you own Canadian bank shares you way want to have a look at this (the Bank of Nova Scotia, Royal Bank an TD in particular).
http://www.financialpost.com/news/Canadian+banks+struggle+meet+rules/4200269/story.html
I think oil is going up and up… If it goes too high we run the risk of a severe correction or even double dip. Then RE is going down big time and so too are your stocks, etfs etc. There may be no place to hide if Egypt is the beginning of big political-economic problems.
It’s idiots like that who think they are winning but really are have no idea how heavily they have bought into something that is making them a prisoner of their investment.
I can’t wait for climate change to REALLY kick in and gas to go up to $3 or $4/litre so scums bags like that feel the burden of their suburban dream.
Y’know, I thought back 5 or 7 years ago that we Canucks should have the option of infinite amort mortgages like the yanks had. I still think we ought to have the right to touch a hot stove if we want to; even if some get burned. Sure it would inflate the price of real estate but fundamentally there’s not much difference between renting for 40 years and ‘owning’ a 40-year amort mortgage. At least the ‘owner’ would build up equity over the decades and have some control over the property. People can make a fortune with leverage and people can go bankrupt with it.
Garth, I’m sure you will be proven right. Trees don’t grow to the moon. Eventually, any bubble bursts. But for the time being, you’re wrong. Even if average prices are skewed by more expensive houses being sold, this is what people look at and even if all of them are blind to the reality that this can’t go on forever, they are ultimately the ones who pay the dough and they keep this market going. With all due respect (and I have a lot of respect for you), you are wrong till you are proven to be right, but you have to wait for it for a while. The only interesting bit here is how long this “while” will take… Some dawgs are tired of waiting and start questioning what the heck they are doing by listening to you, because their friends who took the risk and bought a couple of years ago are laughing now…
Is that not my point? — Garth
——————————————————-
Mike T, the problem with guys like you, even though you seem to like Garth, is that this all seems new to you. It’s a lot of the real estate bulls that talk/think like this.
I”ll regurgitate my background a little bit in terms of investing. Been into real estate with family for many years. For the last few years I’ve done exceptionally well in mining stocks (patting myself on the back). Uranium, gold, silver, rare earths, potash, pulp and paper…..some of the gains I’ve seen have been downright scary.
The difference with me is: I understand that those trends end. Those assets I’ve owned have increased much more than the best piece of real estate in the world – I can guarantee that.
If anyone could be convinced that the asset they own is “special”, why shouldn’t it be me? Years of increases with very high percentage gains.
Guess what I did in December though? I sold A LOT of my gold junior stocks. The reason being: I felt a pullback was coming. I happened to be right this time.
The trend for real estate is down in Canada. It is a slow-mover. The fundamentals for real estate are horrible. The market psychology from the general public towards real estate tells the best story. Not many left that haven’t bought. Market tops are so fun.
My argument is that real estate will go down from the point I believed it was going to go down. I don’t care that it has risen in the past 5 years. My belief is that those years of gains will be erased. If I was idle in the past 5 years, then the opportunity cost hurt me, but I wasn’t idle.
What’s done is done. You can’t erase the lost years of not purchasing by purchasing now at much higher prices. That’s panic purchasing. Please save this type of behaviour for the stocks that I hold as I will gladly sell to you at much higher prices when you absolutely NEED to get in.
My argument was directionless. It’s late. Point is: real estate is done. Buying now doesn’t remove the guilt you feel for not purchasing many years ago. Garth is right. A lot of the general public is going to be taken to school. Tough lesson for sure.
The “positive” ones are in charge at this moment. The Bay Streeters and Wall Streeters and Real Estate sellers have rolled up their sleeves and are denying Garth and followers what Mother Nature will soon bestow upon them. Mother Nature has her own logic and it rests in demographics. The only advice I can offer to the followers for the meantime is to ignore the stupids on this blog (they say little or it could be Garth posing as Devil’s Advocate in order to keep a check on his logic). Keep your heads, stay low, be quiescent and practice humility. Aetheists among us can follow that while, additionally, the religious accept themselves as little and hold the intent of helping others. If we are wrong we should see signs by June.
Here in Australia there is a trend of declining number of sales and the real estate agents know what it means. Declining quantity of sales = declining income = goodbye BMW.
We just sold our house and enjoyed every minute of negotiating a 30% reduction in the sales commission.
Unfortunatley in the short term this means more spruiking for them to stay in business.
The “positive” ones are in charge at this moment. The Bay Streeters and Wall Streeters and Real Estate sellers have rolled up their sleeves and are denying Garth and followers what Mother Nature will soon bestow upon them. Mother Nature has her own logic and it rests in demographics. The only advice I can offer to the followers for the meantime is to ignore the stupids on this blog (they say little or it could be Garth posing as Devil’s Advocate in order to keep a check on his logic). Keep your heads, stay low, be quiescent and practice humility. Aetheists among us can follow that while, additionally, the religious accept themselves as little and hold the intent of helping others. If we are wrong we should see signs by June. Of course “signs” are already there.
http://saskatoon.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110203/sas-saskcma-110203/20110203/?hub=Saskatoon
Thought I’d post the link first before i get censored. Saskatoon’s population is growing by leaps and bounds. How could this be when the blog dogs say our immigration levels have been the same for the last 10 years??
Well, research PNP immigration programs and Temporary workers/students programs. The latter will eventually qualify for the new Canadian Experience Class with a simple application and become permanent. Yes new. Plus like i’ve said many times before (and has fallen on deaf ears), these people are not counted in the population or immigration statistics yet.
But they do impact housing as soon as they arrive. That’s the truth.
Just curious. I saw that interest rates are rising fast and there is some serious call for debt contraction in China…Do you suppose this could quell the “rich asian buyer” syndrome that is so often cited by Vancouver RE bulls? How much will rates need to increase before their economy implodes on itself? Does organized crime take a speculative approach to their $$ laundering RE purchases, or are they more from the ‘buy and hold’ school? Cuz it sounds more and more like people are hanging their hats on a limitless supply of Wealthy Chinese buyers to keep pushing Richmond and Vancouver Westside RE prices to infinity and beyond. But I suspect that China is just as susceptible to economic fundamentals as the rest of the world, and the picture there isn’t too rosy. I try not to be too bearish about the market, but man is it hard to find anything to be bullish about.
I guess Garth must be doing lots of this while reading his mail:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNsrK6P9QvI
Another idea to keep spirits and interest up is to talk about other things while we wait. For instance, it is a good thing that the Moslem world is pursuing democracy. It should dissuade terrorism in the near future as the populations will be preoccupied with their new responsibilities. These will be trying times ahead and this will result with young dissilusioned people being swayed towards terrorism. They must be given something to live for.
I usually don’t read anything beyond 9 am, so if you have something to say to me get it in early.
Like some of the people who have to tell us they are leaving I too am tempted to be silly. For example; “You people are psycho: I’m outta here.”
Garth, you need to know that the Madani news (although he wasn’t credited) was a segment on MSM FOR THE HERD, ie CTV news at 6pm last night. Go to the site and check it out. I watch only to see what they will report and wow, I see some spin! But, as in last night they are starting to revert to CYA mode and report the obvious in tidbits now. It was still quite pathetic though as far as “reporting” goes, ie no underlying explanation for the statement (paraphrasing here) “interest rates to rise so therefore home prices to fall as much as 25%”. Just enough to stun the herd but keep them stupid and addicted to MSM.
Everything works until it doesn’t.
Unfortunately, too many people have accumulated massive long-term debt because of ultra-low short-term rates, and the inevitable rate increase is going to cause financial devastation to the highly indebted. Whether sooner or later, it will happen long before the debt is sufficiently reduced to save them.
And that many were able to live temporarily lavishly on borrowed money will prove little consolation later when that lavish lifestyle is severely curtailed. I have met people who once lived high but were since brought low, and none of them were sufficiently philosophical about their reversal of fortunes to feel happy on the balance. Rather the opposite – past excesses merely provided a yardstick which made present reductions more painful in comparison.
As for Garth’s quoted email, I have noticed that the bull stance invariably consists of two propositions: 1. past growth guarantees future growth; 2. renters somehow aren’t “living their lives”. A moment’s reflection shows both are patently false, so I can only presume some people have a need for self-delusion.
Capital Economics analyst David Madani report released Thursday:
“Housing prices to drop 25% over next few years”
http://www.thestar.com/business/personalfinance/article/933010–housing-prices-to-drop-25-over-next-few-years
Here is an article in today’s Toronto Star predicting a 25% decline in real estate. Of course the house pumping realtors disagree. Surprise, surprise…
http://www.thestar.com/business/personalfinance/article/933010–housing-prices-to-drop-25-over-next-few-years
Further, yesterday I was chatting with a real estate broker in the Toronto area who sold his home last year and is renting.
If you were inconsequential why would anyone bother sending you toxic e-mails?
Given your thoughts on mortgage rates eventually rising, what would be your advice regarding the best mortgage term decision for someone who has a modest renewal pending: Long, mid, short, or variable?
Long. — Garth
I still feel that if it costs me $330 to rent and service my shelter that I am far better off to rent than to own. The average price here, in a no where town in the west kootenays, for a decent but very average home is $250,000…. People have to drive 40 mins to find work in most cases. Friends of mine, buying a house for that price unfortunately soon, are getting $250,000 mortgage with 5% down and the bank is telling them they only qualify for a 30 yr amortization at 3.99%. $1200 payments. We have the same income…so that means I should be able to save and invest almost $900 a month. Because if they can afford $1200 according to the bank for shelter shouldn’t I also have that ability? I fear for them, and have done my due diligence to steer them clear. At least I did not lose our friendship over it. No one else takes my news of Garth’s blog very well so I tell strangers mostly now lol
What is happening is we are carefully and slowly getting to where we need to be. It’s all good
——-
Why do I get the feeling that in 2 years, with the market down 50%, you’d be convinced you had predicted this?
If Zuckerberg with his $10B+ net worth still rent in Silicon Valley, I’m pretty sure that anyone can rent. You would think in a place where everyone switches jobs after only a couple of years, they’d realise that buying a house doesn’t make a lot of sense for that lifestyle.
In montreal most mls listings have pictures taken in summer … Yet the economy is apparently humming along.
Winnipeg Free Press –
Housing market will tank, report fears
Forecast contradicts majority of observers
By: Julian Beltrame
Posted: 02/4/2011 1:00 AM | Comments: 0
OTTAWA — A new report predicts Canada’s housing market is poised for collapse and is only waiting for the trigger of rising interest rates expected later this year — a view that flies in the face of many other forecasts.
Capital Economics calculates Canadian home prices could fall by about 25 per cent, even as much as 35 per cent, during the next three years once the Bank of Canada begins tightening monetary policy.
Most economists expect the central bank will begin doing that in late spring or early summer, with the trendsetting rate rising from the current one per cent to more than two per cent by the end of the year.
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep hiking the policy rate next year until it returns to normal levels — about 3.5 per cent — by the end of 2012.
That would have profound implications both for home values and the economy, says David Madani, Canadian chief economist of Capital Economics.
“Even small rises in official interest rates have been shown to have a big effect on homeowner confidence in other countries under similar circumstances,” Madani said Thursday.
“If the Bank of Canada does resume its monetary tightening this year, this could easily prove to be a tipping point for a house-price collapse.”
The knock-on effects of homeowners seeing the value of their biggest asset crash could see consumer confidence and spending plunge, damaging the economy, he added.
If prices fall 35 per cent, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., which insures higher-risk mortgages, could suffer losses of $10 billion as about 10 per cent of mortgages default.
So far, all predictions of doom have been unfulfilled.
The Bank of Canada and the majority of private-sector forecasters are instead calling for a “soft landing” in the housing market, where prices flatten or fall a few percentage points at most. That slowdown has already begun in terms of both resales, prices and building permits for new homes.
— The Canadian Press
\
There is another possible outcome to our current housing forecast and it is one that relates almost entirely to jobs growth and income stability.
Despite many still feeling very negative about the future (including myself some days) there are positive signs emerging that the economy may be on the mend.
Todays jobs report was heartening and exceeded the expectations of most economists as 69,000 jobs were added to the roles of the employed.
The actual unemployment numbers are up a fraction though as more people are now seeking work. Keep in mind that the current numbers reflect January readings and are skewed by seasonality. This is a plus in making projections into the future.
Spring typically sees a jump in new hires and we may well see a heartening improvement in overall employment numbers in the current year.
Not all is doom and gloom. We have in fact been experiencing several periods of positive growth now that are undeniable and there are continued signs that the US economy, while hot hot, is warming just a little and may soon pick up.
While it is understandable that interest rate increases will dampen home resale prices in Canada in the coming years and there is a certainty of the baby boom demographic patterns which will weigh on prices as too much supply meets too little demand in the future, we do face an outcome where home prices could remain persistently high for quite some time provided employment numbers hold up and interest rate increases are not too dramatic.
In that scenario, there would not be the much predicted crash in the pricier overbought and saturated markets. Perhaps there will not even be much of a significant melt as Canadians are enabled by an improving economy to continue to maintain the high payment levels on their homes as a real recovery period materializes.
Domestic risks to housing prices seem to be abating from a macro perspective however the persistent distortion in many of the key trends remains a real concern.
There is an acknowledgement that any significant shocks outside our own borders could still bring this party to a screetching halt. I do not incidentally see a significant risk arising from the conflicts in the Middle east. Of much greater concern are European debt woes and sovereign risk.
Increasing energy costs and the ongoing threat of price inflation meanwhile in commodities are an added burden on domestic houshold budgets.
Canadians in general though seem to be coping well with the added pressures on the expense side of the ledger and it is true that we have not experienced anywhere near the devastating outcomes that have already taken place in the US housing market.
Price stability in a high debt environment is certainly preferred to the massive asset correction as witnessed in the US.
We cannot have it all and so may discover that the price we really will pay for avoiding a massive real estate correction is simply a slow deleveraging through ongoing payments of mortgages and other related obligations. Helocs, credit cards and auto payments come first to mind here.
In Canada, we do in fact seem to have glided over the worst of the global recession intact, albeit in much deeper debt than when the country first entered the financial crisis that has been so damaging to other Western economies, particularly the United States.
Should the economy continue to improve then the real outcome in this sort of situation will be reflected more in reduced consumption and reduced savings rates as existing debt takes the lions share of current income.
This would represent an era of continued high prices and relative market stability combined with ongoing high home ownership rates while restraining the casual spending habits of most people.
The real casualty here would become disposable income and a slowdown in spending at the retail level and on services.
Another downside risk is that the savings rate as already mentioned would remain persistently low for the majority of families and retirement planning would continue to be put off by many where the bulk of their income is instead consumed by servicing existing high debt loads instead of fattening savings accounts.
This is not necessarily a negative where home price stability can be maintained over a long period of time and in relative terms and where the downside risks of a price collapse do not materialize.
A true economic recovery would certainly be welcomed by most people. This one is not likely to be met with rising wages though and so we could realistically enter a long period of relative economic stagnation and low growth prospects as the debts of yesterday consume the opportunities of tomorrow.
Just saying………
@53 The Original Dave:
Thank you for taking the time to answer to my post. I respect and appreciate that. I also am glad that you did well in RE as well as in stocks – wish I knew 10% of what you know (sincerely – no sarcasm here!).
My point was that while some people see the problems coming and don’t act because of that, they also miss some great opportunities and feel bad looking at the ones who (maybe foolishly) just bit the bullet and bought RE and are now well in the money. I didn’t buy and will not buy soon because, first, I will think about buying when my wife starts working (house-related expenses should be max. 25% of our take-home pay – that’s my rule – because I want to live for my family, not my house), and second, I also see trouble on the horizon.
If only the damn H, F and C left the economy alone, quit inflating bubbles and get us all in trouble by doing this.
Just a small correction to the previous comment where I wrote….
“…there are continued signs that the US economy, while hot hot, is warming just a little and may soon pick up”
This should actually read “NOT hot” versus hot hot.
Sorry for the poor edit.
DA…. I don`t quite understand why the number that you pull up is $491,097 for the Jan. 2011 average price and OMREB states that the average price for Jan. is $436,913 on their web page.. I am just curious,,,that`s all..
Calgary update….sales up, prices up and its a balanced market…hummmm
From the Ottawa Citizen:
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/business/Ottawa+Home+sales+fall/4221949/story.html
Sales of resale homes slipped in January compared to the same month last year. According to the Ottawa Real Estate Board, 675 resale homes were sold during the month, a decrease of 6.1 per cent from the 719 sold in January 2010. The board said the January numbers mark a return to a normal selling pace for Ottawa’s real estate industry. The board said the average selling price of a resale home in Ottawa was $329,657 in January, a three-per-cent increase over the same month one year ago.
BANG ON.
1. Lower Sales.
2. Higher Prices.
3. The Big Spring Thaw.
4. The Summer Drought.
5. The Fall. –I don’t mean Autumn, I mean the Big One. 2012 will be the year of reckoning.–
#69 Off-Gridder said – “I still feel that if it costs me $330 to rent and service my shelter…”
Wow, cave rents have gone up since I was in Kootenays many years ago. They used to be free. That’s RE for ya.
Devil’s Advocate – You obviously don’t live in Etobicoke. The properties I’m looking at are still going over asking in bidding wars. I was pushed out by a “bully offer” lat week; I thought those days had gone. Sellers in the better locations are still getting what they want, and more.
An election can’t come soon enough for Steven. Get a majority now before the SH*T hits the fan and then hope there is an upswing in the economy before the end of the mandate. A true surfer dude.
#52 vapour trails on 02.04.11 at 3:39 am
There is a spacious, multi-room family igloo near Resolute, Nunavut that would be the perfect investment for you. It features an oversized lot, rolling hills, oceans views, unlimited hunting and seasonal whale watching. Only 2% down with easy financing terms available (from the current owner). Live the dream! This one won’t last long…call now for an appointment.
Great post Alex #29, my wife and I have been spending a lot of time in Florida over the past couple of years and found the same truths you speak of there. We will be renting as well, then at the end of the day come back to Nova Scotia without a worry in the world….except for the snow of course.
You can give someone a raise every day an not necessarily keep them at par with the demise in their fiat currency’s buying power.
Wa, wa, wa…
That’s utter bullshit Cashman. I can’t tell you how many times I have been asked by the appraiser what the sale price of the property was. Why do they need to know? Are you not supposed to appraise it impartially based on the recent comparable sales? I’ll tell you why because they are the banks pawn. You want to know the agreed price so you don’t fall too far out of line with it so the bank has a deal, which they can prove to CMHC was appraised within the realm of due diligence. You get paid by the bank, even though the bank in turn charges the borrower. The bank wants the deal. Appraise it too far out that they can’t kite it and you soon are no longer called upon to do the job.
There may be agents you disappoint by doing so but do your friggin job as you are supposed to and don’t ask me what the sale price was, I’m not about to tell you so you can massage the numbers to reflect it. Figure out what it should have been for yourself.
“Don’t tell lies about me and I won’t tell the truth about you” – Gordon Geeko – Wallstreet, Money Never Sleeps.
No FR, they disagree with us. Believe me, if we (the real estate industry) could get prices to drop by 25% across the board we would do so immediately. It is not that house prices have risen so much as your fiat currency’s buying power has fallen. If we could drive housing prices down we could sell a lot more product faster.
Because it is a matter of record that I do not at all today believe that. I have persistently and consistently argued, all things being equal, that will not happen. It is my mandate for participation on this blog – to debunk that false hope of the Blog Dawgs. Hence I could hardly tell such a lie and get away with it could I. Also I never lie. Occasionally I may be mistaken – but I never lie. Lying always catches up with you in the end and costs you a whole lot more than you benefited by doing so. Always. Lying is a carcinogen.
};-)
A.D.D.D.A.
#23 rental monkey on 02.04.11 at 12:56 am; this buds for you.
Housing Prices to drop 25% in the next few years…
http://www.thestar.com/business/personalfinance/article/933010–housing-prices-to-drop-25-over-next-few-years
Once again the argument. When I read it, it makes me cringe. I don’t understand why this crap keeps being said. Makes my eyes hurt.
“The price run-up in Canada has been based on strong economic fundamentals and demand from owner-occupants, whereas in the U.S., housing production was in excess of the demand that was justified by economic conditions,” said Toronto housing economist Will Dunning. “There was a large element of speculation in the U.S. that has not been present in Canada.
Right Will, of course. It’s different here. Sigh….
My mother heard that “25%” drop report on the radio yesterday (AM640 I think), and called me in a slight panic.
I’ve been telling them for months now to sell (both are in their late 60’s with about 200k equity in their home currently priced at a little over 400K … basically no other investments including no RRSP’s).
They haven’t been listening to me (they think their home is going to go up more this spring) …. I’ve told them to get out before it’s too late.
So many untruths, so little time…
I gotta go… the bullshit on this blog is mind-boggling.
Excuse me I mean “BEAR SHIT”
};-)
Of course they are and so they should.
Icecream melts from the outside in.
Garth,
You’ve never been so right and yet so wrong at the same time.
Yes, house prices based on fundamentals are significantly overpriced in this country, and sooner or later they will correct. In fact, at the end in 2008 that’s what they started doing, and I do believe once again the housing market’s running out of steam.
Where you’ve been wrong I think is underestimating the great lengths that the federal government and the Bank of Canada would go in order to ward off a depression – including crashing interest rates to the floor.
I remember how surprised I was back in 2009 how amidst huge job losses here and south of the border, that after March 2009 house prices skyrocketed after a bit of a decline. It didn’t make sense to me back then. Now I see how the BOC and CHMC kept the bubble inflated the whole time, and created the illusion that we “weathered the storm” while in reality it just created a wealth effect as demand for housing was pulled forward, and households across the country just piled on more debt.
When it comes to bubbles, eventually the market forces catch up and eventually pop the bubble. However, the “wild cards”, such as the actions of governments (through fiscal and monetary policies – in particular policies based on Keynesian economics in order to keep throwing money to keep a particular asset class inflated), as well as the bubble psychology (see http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/bubble-market-psychology-part-1/ and http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/bubble-market-psychology-part-2/ ) make it hard to predict the timeline.
Raw unmanipulated numbers Robert which I pulled by inquiry right straight out of the MLS data base. Not in a table, not massaged, not added or subtracted but all the sales for those given periods of which that is the average.
I do know the published numbers don’t always jive with that raw numbers. I don’t know why. I trust the raw numbers be they up down or sideways from the “published”. But then I am anal that way and tenaciously analytical. Economics and statistics educated unlike the secretarial staff at the board with all due respect to them.
#81 Happyplace: True, but not for long. What’s still going on today in some pockets isn’t relevant to the crash coming. They are now two separate things, the first being complete ignorance splashing in the pool of the wrong idea of life’s true meaning, and the latter being a massive train that left the station a long time ago. The wall at the end of the track ain’t goin’ anywhere.
Surprisingly, listings in Burlington, Ontario seem to be dropping all of a sudden?
MLS “house” priced $300,000-$400,000 for Burlington, Ontario:
December 31st, 2010 213
January 4th, 2011 193
7th 207
14th 216
18th 222
17th (F drops the 30 yr bomb)
21st 229
24th 241
28th 247
February 3rd 242
4th 237
Maybe real estate agents are telling clients to wait a few more weeks before listing??
Mr. T, while a lot of your insights are logical and common sense, how can “Joe Canada” know what the right cause of action is when the mainstream media push out conflicting articles. One G&M article today “Home prices could dive if rates rise, analyst says” said:
– higher rates could lead to price collapse
– CREA expects sales to fall 9% but prices only 1.3%
– CAMP says Cdns confident of being able to shoulder $300 extra per month
– BNS economist expects prices staying flat while incomes rise
I’m curious to know if you feel there is someone out there who should be counseling Cnds on the right course of action.
You’re reading it. — Garth
28 Cashman – I have had bad experiences with appriasers. When my current house was completed, the appraisal was so full of gross errors I refused to pay for
it. The guy couldnt find my front door, so he subtracts X amount from the house value. He said I was on sewer.
I’m on septic. He said I had gas. I do sometimes, but my
house doesnt. A complete idiot. I had lots of headroom
for the mortgage, so it didnt matter in the end, but I
made my mortgage broker pay for it.
moving assets into a TFSA: can they be put in at purchase price or does it need to be current market price?
Market price. — Garth
++++++++++++++++
If they are shares, technically they move in at the bid price, so if you watch and time the bid and ask, you may saave a couple of bucks. Don’t forget that these are a deemed transaction according to the CRA and will trigger a capital gain (or loss) on your taxes for 2011.
#88 DA Well now that you mention it,,there does appear to be quite a bit of “Bullshit”.. It just seems to me that there is a huge difference between your Jan. average price for a house in the Central OK and the real estate board`s price.. I mean $491,097-$436,913=$54,184..That is quite a difference.. I just do not understand how there can be that much difference in numbers and I am a curious type of guy..
#51 SuckedIn on 02.04.11 at 3:11 am
It’s idiots like that who think they are winning but really are have no idea how heavily they have bought into something that is making them a prisoner of their investment.
I can’t wait for climate change to REALLY kick in and gas to go up to $3 or $4/litre so scums bags like that feel the burden of their suburban dream.
+++++++++++++++++++++
Global warming is an elitist GTA loving urban myth. Utter crap. Waiting for it to kick in to punish those who you view as wicked shows how stupid and anti-people the eco-fascist movement is.
Go find some other drum to beat on; the skin broke on that one.
Greetings:
There was a blogger called Garth
Who, with a keyboard made words into art
Said some, “Garth ain’t so smart”
But the truth of Garth
In a big part
Is why those Some
Are as relevant as a popcorn fart!!
If I only had your gift… — Garth
A summer picture of the subject property is vastly more marketable than a winter picture. We tend to use summer pictures all year long. We can change them from day to day ya know. It’s called marketing. White on white? Come on man – give me COLOUR, it catches the eye.
Geesh….
};-)
….The people on this blog have been waiting and waiting and waiting but the crash hasn’t come yet.
Just go ask MILLIONS (USA,Ireland,japan, etc) of home owners and theirs kids if they can rewind back in time and get out of real estate 3-4 years before the crash without the profit of those 3-4 years if they will do it.
Now and the last 5 years was a Very dangerous time to invest in real estate, since 2006 all the profit made you should say tanks to the manipulation of your government. We can calculate a lot of mathematical analysis but not the madness of men.
#51 SuckedIn you said:
“I can’t wait for climate change to REALLY kick in and gas to go up to $3 or $4/litre so scums bags like that feel the burden of their suburban dream.”
Good grief, and you think commodity prices are high now. I am no expert but a very large component of the agri business is oil. Used in fertilizers, long haul transport, tractors, etc. So do not wish for this $4/l gas as you too will be one of the “SuckedIn’s”.
Why is it that people always wish for stuff that will also screw themselves and their family over?
Arrogance and ignorance is all I got for a response.
Did you know that a interest rate rise could trigger house price collapse in Canada?
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Interest-rate-rise-trigger-capress-2046187280.html
@ #22 D.A.
Sometimes you crack me up….Coffee and DA in the morning. Then an uncontrollable urge to have a bowel movement.
Thanks buddy
Garth, here’s some more support for what you’ve been saying all along. Prediction that the home values could fall 25-35% over the next 3 years. It’s from Capital Economics whoever they are.
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/Interest-rate-rise-trigger-capress-2046187280.html
An average house price in Canada of $260,000 sounds about right. Winnipeg’s December average was $250,000…and it was -35°c last week.
Obviously there needs to be a catalyst to bring prices down. The only scenario I see are baby boomers selling in large numbers, bringing up supply dramatically. What else is there?
Ya coffee does that to me too… but I’m not quite so full of it as you. ;-)
};-)
@53 The Original Dave:
Thank you for taking the time to answer to my post. I respect and appreciate that. I also am glad that you did well in RE as well as in stocks – wish I knew 10% of what you know (sincerely – no sarcasm here!).
My point was that while some people see the problems coming and don’t act because of that, they also miss some great opportunities and feel bad looking at the ones who (maybe foolishly) just bit the bullet and bought RE and are now well in the money. I didn’t buy and will not buy soon because, first, I will think about buying when my wife starts working (house-related expenses should be max. 25% of our take-home pay – that’s my rule – because I want to live for my family, not my house), and second, I also see trouble on the horizon.
If only the damn H, F and C left the economy alone, quit inflating bubbles and get us all in trouble by doing this.
——————————————————
Mike, I really wish you luck. I just read as much as possible and try not to be swayed by the clutter that I hear.
So many people, knew of Garth. I just discovered Garth a few years ago. I was so convinced that Canadian housing was doomed, that I hit the internet to find an outlet that felt the same way. This site is the grand master for true/unbiased Canadian real estate information. We’re lucky to have a free outlet like this.
Research pays off. Had I listened to people that were chatting that they “never lost money in the stock market crash. That’s why people shouldn’t invest in the stock market”, I would have never committed more investment dollars post 2008 crash. Not investing during all the doom when people said to stay away, would have ruined me (from an opportunity cost stand point).
The same people and more importantly, THE SAME AMOUNT OF PEOPLE that told me to stay away from the stock market have told me that real estate is a sound buy.
Don’t second guess yourself. It is instinctive for humans to follow others. Safety in numbers is the train of thought. Your patience will be rewarded and so will mine.
It is okay to miss the boat on an asset. It is your job to evaluate if the asset is a sensible price. If you look at the price and it doesn’t make sense (using proper metrics) then don’t buy it….and don’t kick yourself in the butt for not buying it.
Many people may not know this, but Warren Buffett was ridiculed for years for not getting into tech stocks. In 1996 he was ridiculed, in 1997 he didn’t understand the new paradigm,1998 same thing, in 1999 he was too old and missed the boat………..then came 2000. Actual metrics were proven right. Prices came down past where he initially claimed they were over valued (and he was deemed crazy). Not all assets get completely clobbered, just ones that are completely over valued. It’s your job to sift through the clutter.
It is everyone’s job to be able to identify if an asset is hitting a mania. There won’t always be a guy like Garth that people stumble upon. If people read this blog with all the information available and still second guess Garth’s opinion, my guess is that you will be doomed at some point in the future with another asset class. You will probably avoid the real estate bust by means of fortune and good luck, but you’re not understanding market psychology. That is the killer. Don’t worry about housing going up last year, this year etc., listen to the message. Listen to what the public is saying – the media, your colleagues etc. You have to be able to identify what’s going on when the next party asset is around and you’re tempted to buy. Don’t be the last person holding the bag.
Listen to what people are saying, who’s saying it, and how many people are saying it. Avoid committing money to the consensus investment opinion.
The coffee…
That was nasty… I take it back. I’m sorry. Glad I could oblige and help prepare you to take a well deserved break in your day in quiet solitude to waft on the aromatic breeze of your thoughts as they permeate from where your head is at.
#98 Vancouver is a great town …. to be from on 02.04.11
—————————————————
(Anthropogenic-induced) Climate change is as much a myth as DNA being our genetic code and the Earth being round.
It’s already here and likely here to stay for a very, very, long time.
Don’t call you CrowdedElevatorFartz for nothin’ do they?
#33 BC Bring Cash on 02.04.11 at 1:20 am
Garth when you said it in your book Sheeple page 44, Harper wasn’t done yet. “sit down.” Your a journalist,” he said, “and we all know journalists make bad Politicians. Politicians know how to stick to the message. That’s how they are successful. Journalists think they always have to tell the truth.
In other words Harper is telling you that speaking the truth is not the way to go. You are a failure because you want to tell the truth. Need more be said about this prick that is our supreme leader. He is a pathological liar. Need I say more about our Plutocratic PM. There are going to be a lot of disappointed people that believed in the PROFESSIONAL ECONOMIST HARPER’S GONG SHOW. Stand by for the melt down.
…………
Funny how he made Peter Kent a Min of Environment, Buffoon Duffy and Pamela Wallin as Senators who were previous journalists. But, of course, they tow the line and like all of his cabinet get their talking points from Stevie.
“Someone who was there paraphrased Harper’s message to his ministers at his first cabinet meeting in 2006: “I am the kingpin. So whatever you do around me, you have to know that I am sacrosanct.” Harper was telling his ministers that they were expendable but that he wasn’t. If they had to go so that his credibility and his ability to get things done were protected, so be it.”
http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/01/31/what-you-dont-know-about-stephen-harper/2/
This article is fairly long but worth reading.
CrowdedElevatorFartz;
Ever hear of polite conversation. Please keep your mouth shut, it’s not polite to so blatantly Fart in public.
These I know will not pass moderation… pitty
};-)
“IT IS DIFFERENT HERE”, We are morally superior!
Check this one, guys, you will feel for the depraved Americans:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/03/learning-to-walk-underwater-mortgages_n_818315.html
Architect Mies Van der Rohe popularized the dictum “less is more.” It’s corollary is equally true: more is less! DA
My apologies for the indiscreet digression. After so taking so much abuse myself, I think it only fair I be allowed to dish some out. All in fun, all in fun. No hard feelings. Really for every one I give I take no less than 10.
Again my appologies if anyone was too terribly offended. ;-)
#34 Brynn,
You can’t be bothered with stats yet somehow you have all the information? Gimme a break.
As I suspected, another pumper dressed up as a house pet.
I must apologize, I fat-fingered the % gains of uranium stocks in my post of yesterday. It’s my dylexia.
Before the grammar police get upset, that’s a joke. Dylexia is how a dyslexic spells it. I was going from memory, sorry.
Correct figures:
http://techuranium.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2010-04-19T18%3A04%3A00-04%3A00&max-results=20
Apr 18/2010
“I started my Weekly Uranium Index on Jan of 2003 at a value of 100. It rose over the next few years to reach 14513 in April of 2007, an increase of 14,400%.”
Hardly worth bothering with. (sarcasm)
You can clearly see what is the better ‘investment’, and it ain’t real estate. Buy a house to live in, not to make money.
That Blog by Merv Burak is one of my favorites, and absolutely one of the best trading websites on the internet. If you read back through the archives, he will give you all the tools and knowledge you will need to successfully trade resource stocks. Timeless wisdom:
“When it comes to resource stocks, whether they are uranium, precious metals, petroleum, etc. I do not believe in long term “investing”. With these stocks one should not, in my view, be thinking long term. One should be focusing on the short term or my preferred time period, the intermediate term. Use indicators for that specific period and follow them. Sometimes you WILL be wrong but that’s the name of the game, you take the losses with the profits but based upon the technical indicators you are going to be on the right side of the market or trend most of the time. Most importantly, you will not get killed by not acting on the down side when you should. Your worst case would be the stock turns around and you lose a little bit of potential gains. Anyone looking for perfection and is not prepared for reversals in these stocks is just asking for a slaughter in his portfolio. Dreaming or wishing is not an investment strategy.
……If you follow the technical concept and limit your losses FAST, buy what’s moving and get out when it stops or reverses. You should not need to buy more than maybe 3 to 5 stocks, if that many. You WILL loss on some trades but if you keep your losses small and let your profits run you will end up well to the good.”
A disciplined emotionless strategy wins. Big.
The real cause of the riots.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/41414080#41414080
As for DA, save valuable time and skip all his posts. For your own mental health. Helps your blood pressure too, and saves your monitor from you putting a fist through it.
I haven’t read any of his posts in many weeks. I read some of the responses to him, but in general I skip those too. Not enough minutes in the day that can be completely wasted.
DA, please go away. Far away. Or limit yourself to 1 comment a day.
I honestly can’t figure why Garth puts up with your crap. I’m in favor of free speech and all, but your comment spamming is way over the line. I’d have banned you many months ago, and wouldn’t have missed you at all.
Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one. But you have diarrhea, and it stinks.
Well… I must now make a peace offering…
Sales thus far this month down 50% with prices holding compared to the same period last year.
Average Price thus far this month $444,000
Average Price for same period last year $440,766
Volume thus far this month 8 (not accounting for the remaining hours left in the day)
Volume for same period last year 15
Price does follow volume. So… prices are not likely to be going up, that they are holding is due only to the low pre-Spring inventories. Once inventories restock prices will reflect the fundamentals. But not nearly so dramatically as you might think.
As Garth has persistently advised, if you are going to sell now is the time to do it. Get brutally real on your price and beat the competition to the market.
If you are a buyer… buy quality if you must buy. “What is quality?” you ask. It’s where prices are rising today and will not fall tomorrow. “Where is that?” you ask. Ahhhh… the hidden immunity idol.
http://finance.sympatico.ca/home/interest_rate_rise_could_trigger_house_price_collapse_report_says/ed3141d7
Perhaps a 25% collapse in Canadian home prices…
#99 Dodged-a-bullet in alberta
Is that supposed to be a limmerick?
Let’s try and make it an actual limmerick, shall we?
There once was a blogger called Garth
Whose mission was kindness and warmth
Said some, “Garth ain’t smart”
Yet, for their own part
Of new thoughts they had but a dearth
“If Zuckerberg with his $10B+ net worth still rent in Silicon Valley, I’m pretty sure that anyone can rent”
Come on Bubble boy, I’ve seen better work then this from you, Z can rent all he wants and it makes no difference because of his wealth. Average people buy so they can have some type of wealth effect later in their life, otherwise most would be poor, just look at peoples savings which is almost no existent today.
That emailer struck a nerve with me.
If you leverage to the nuts on any asset class and it booms you’ll make a killing. The tech boom would have been even better than buying real estate provided you sold before it burst.
I think if I read between the lines a little, it’s possible that Garth may be implying that, at this time, Real estate is probably not a great choice for leveraging your entire net worth and then some for the vast majority of your adult life. He is subtle, but I think if your read again, it’s in there. :)
By the way Garth, I invested in some tech companies that I liked before the boom (not nearly enough) and they did really well and I sold them for a reasonable profit because I wasn’t nearly greedy enough. So because, like that emailer, my personal experience outweighs any logical argument that you or anyone else could ever make I conclude that you’re a complete idiot for criticising the Tech boom. And so is everyone who even reads what you write.
Cheers.
Dean
#99 Dodged-A-Bullit-in Alberta
Are you a Vogon?
#119 Got A Watch on 02.04.11 at 12:56 pm
I would love to oblige and leave this place but I suffer from a mental disorder known as “obsessive compulsive” and I do take it to an unheard of degree. I am like a Pit Bull and never let go until something else comes along. Unfortunately for you, this blog is right up my alley; my education, my past time, my hobby, my vocation. I can pick it up and drop it as need be throughout my day as I am totally wired in with iPhones, iPads, Netbooks, Laptops, Desktops and some other things you could only dream of as the tools of my trade. I work 24/7 so a moment here and there is no big deal to me as I deserve a break once in a while. I can vent here – which is a good thing because sometimes unrealistic clients push me too far. And I get a read on the “people’s opinion” here. It’s workin’ for me Bud, but not always but clearly enough… Right now though I am wired. Was up late last night getting ready for a big day today. It’s a busy time for me. We, both you and me, are screwed buddy. I might just be in for the long haul. But then who am I writing to you don’t read my posts right?
Oh look a squirrel!
};-)
A.D.D.D.A.
Someone mentioned the other day about receiving credit card offers in the mail. The other day I rec’d one from American Express tho I never took up their offer 20 yrs ago. Today I rec’d one from CIBC. What I have done in the past and will do today, is put their offer in their return envelope and fill it with junk n’paper adverts & return it to them. Scotch tape the back. They will have to pay extra postage as the envelope will be over the normal weight, I believe. I have also saved several of their envelopes, put labels on them to cover up all their return addy and used them for other reasons. Has worked for me.
I have one charge card which I seldom use and it’s always paid off at the end of the month. Made that decision 25+ yrs ago.
We took out 10K LOC 19+ yrs ago when we bought our current house to tide us over for a month between selling our last place and this place. Can’t recall the details why we had to go that route. Paid it off a month later and have never used it since. We also bought a home based on 1 person’s salary.
In ’98, being totally naive investors, got into mutuals and experienced 3 downturns. But, we stayed in. Thankfully, we now have a fee based, no commission company to represent us :-)
I bought 2 of Garth’s books – the latest Money Road and look forward to his next. Just reread his ‘Dedication’ for Money Road.
“To people with the courage to learn and improve their lives without awaiting for happenstance. To middle class families determined to stay that way. To those who know wealth is not a goal or a right, but an opportunity to give, share and enjoy. To those who care for others in want, and all creatures. To Dorothy.”
I whole heartedly agree with the last 3 sentences .
Re Cheap condos and other abandoned Real estate.
I would be very wary of anything that has sat unoccupied for a while. Needs an even more thorough inspection. Vacancy can let pest establish…chew wiring. Unheated cold snap(yep even in Arizona ) pipes will freeze and burst.
Metal thieves could have pillaged it , they can do thousands in damage to gain a few bucks.
Check the crime stats in the area before you buy as well.
There is a REASON these places are selling so cheap….it goes beyond what Goldman Sachs etc did.
#128 Live Within Your Means
You have good advise and nice story that the, 0cash 40years and 5%cash 35years, can and should use in their daily life and for the future.
REMAX in Kelowna has numerous ‘new prices’ in todays’ listings. One REMAX agent alone advertises “four houses under foreclosure”.
Out in the Mission area, a Mission Foreclosure Hotline for access to a ‘list of lovely single family homes’. And so it goes…..
So, it is not different here.
Greetings: #126 Widening Gyre!!
No, not a Vogon, I actually think my poetry rocks!! However the write-up in Wiki sure gives a good description of many who work in the federal, provincial, and municipal governments. To wit: ” bad tempered, bureaucratic, officious, callous”. Maybe if the shoe fits??
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogon
#120 Got A Watch on 02.04.11 at 12:56 pm
I honestly can’t figure why Garth puts up with your crap. I’m in favor of free speech and all, but your comment spamming is way over the line. I’d have banned you many months ago, and wouldn’t have missed you at all.
………………
My hubby has a web site to do with Beemer bikes. His policy is:
– Aggressive or slanderous messages, as well as personal insults and critics, the coarseness and vulgarities, and more generally any message contravening the French laws are prohibited.
– Messages who promote – or evoke – illegal practices are prohibited.
– If you post informations which come from another site , look first if the site in question doesn’t forbid it. Show the address of the site in question in order to respect the work of their administrators!
– Please post your messages only once. The repetitions are unpleasant and useless!
– Please make an effort on grammar and spelling. SMS-style language (ex: r u sk8ing?) is not advised!
Any message contravening the listing above will be edited or removed without additional notice or justification within deadlines which will depend on the availability of the moderators. Any abuse will involve the cancellation of the registration. Internet is neither an anonymous space, nor a space of no-right! We reserve ourselves the possibility of informing your access provider and/or the legal authorities of any malevolent behavior. An IP address of each poster is recorded in order to help us to make you respect these conditions.
………..
Hubby is from France, so his written English at times is somewhat lacking. Wish he had asked me to review it first.
He also has this posted on his site in 4 languages:
“This forum is an international forum and members of many countries are represented. For this reason, we require to know where you are living. (We do not need your full address, but an approximate location)
Disclosure of the city (or state) AND the country where you live is mandatory! Your applicaton will be rejected if you don’t disclose this information. No exception!”
Sounds harsh I know. He does make some exceptions. The ones he rejects the most are those from the US who just add the city and expect that everyone in the world will know the city is in the US. Some who have been rejected have written really nasty replies to him. How hard is it to fill in required info. He has his reasons for asking this info. BTW, he doesn’t make 1 cent from his site. He just loves his beemers and wants to share his & other’s knowledge.
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD BACK INTO THE LIMELIGHT?
There must be panic in Western capitals this weekend as the usual gaggle of know-it-alls try to figure out what’s next for their oil importation prospects.
Will Egypt’s dictator Mubarak step down soon? If so how does one define the word “soon”?
Is there a successor government waiting in the wings?
If so whom or what?
American and European intellectual elite demigods seem unable to re-bottle the Middle Eastern genie as more than 300-million people in that region must also be wondering what comes next.
Watching the US and British media hacks twisting themselves up in knots, these days, over this monumental geopolitical chess game is like watching a gaggle of blissfully ignorant folks enjoying afternoon tea on railroad tracks in front of an on-rushing fast freight.
These “observers” prattle on in support of one another’s probably-conflicted thoughts and feelings about what the outcome of these troubles “should be” rather than what it might actually turn out to be.
Our Western pundits, blinded by their own hubris, let the rest of us down as we ALSO try to figure things out!
Freedom and democracy is what Egyptians and their compatriots in Tunisia, Syria, Yemen, Algeria, and Jordan apparently want.
Sounds good, but what does democracy mean to those folks, most of whom are impoverished and suppressed by primarly Western-funded locally-produced dictators?
And just who will provide them with this democracy and freedom. More Western aid and stooges? Nope.
THE “BROTHERS…”
What MAY transpire in Egypt is what could occur elsewhere in that region, the rise of the 90-plus year old Muslim Brotherhood, an illegal group in Egypt, but which has widespread influence. Is it carefully scoping out the situation, during all of this chaos? Likely. We’ll hear from them sometime. Sooner than later.
Here is a snippett of a report from BBC’s Web-site, on Friday:
‘(Mubarak)…repeated that the country’s banned Islamist opposition group – the Muslim Brotherhood – would fill the power vacuum left by his absence.
A senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood, Issam al-Aryan, denied that his group would put forward someone for the presidency, telling the BBC that it would prefer the opposition to nominate a consensus candidate.
“We want a civil state, based on Islamic principles. A democratic state, with a parliamentary system, with freedom to form parties, press freedom, and an independent and fair judiciary,” he added.’
REMEMBER THE SUEZ CRISIS
We should remember history. This Egyptian uprising brings back memories of a previous Egyptian president, the socialist Gamal Abdel Nasser’s accession to power back in the 1950s, and his seizure of the Suez Canal, in 1956, that killed off the British Empire.
Today’s uprising also reminds us of the pre-Ayatollah days in Iran and other Cold War-era revolutions.
I view this week’s demonstrations as the beginning of a major power shift putting the West on a course for the back-burners of history, through total loss of control over hydrocarbon prices, thus altering the balance of Middle Eastern power to some LOCAL group or factions. Sure OPEC has some pricing power, but state-control of oil and natural gas disposition is where the REAL power lies. And the Suez Canal could also become a choke point, again.
COLD DAY IN HELL…
For a possible taste of things to come, in a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated Middle East, just look at the Drudge report today. Read the stories of power shortages in the US caused by recenty cold weather.
This is where a nation comes to grief when it has no energy conservation and exploitation program that guarantees ample power to its citizenry.
Failures all over the US Empire these days. Amazing. Everywhere you look, failure. And America’s elite figures it can solve Egypt’s problems? They ARE Egypt’s problem! Our’s too.
#28 Cashman on 02.04.11 at 1:11 am
“As a former Real Estate Appraiser….”
======================================
My brother is taking courses for the Appraiser certification, but I don’t see much of a demand for this especially with all the automated computer appraisals the banks and CMHC do now.
What’s your (or anyone here) take on getting into that business? Good money? Opportunities?
@ 124 Mikey the Realtor:
Come on Bubble boy, I’ve seen better work then this from you, Z can rent all he wants and it makes no difference because of his wealth. Average people buy so they can have some type of wealth effect later in their life, otherwise most would be poor, just look at peoples savings which is almost no existent today.
Not really my point: I just meant psychologically, the *need* to buy a house doesn’t exist for a guy who obviously could buy many houses. I didn’t mean that he would be buying a house as an investment/savings vehicle.
#110 Bottoms_Up on 02.04.11 at 12:18 pm
#98 Vancouver is a great town …. to be from on 02.04.11
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(Anthropogenic-induced) Climate change is as much a myth as DNA being our genetic code and the Earth being round.
It’s already here and likely here to stay for a very, very, long time.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thanks for proving my point on the average person’s ignorance of science; the Earth is not round, it is slightly bulged in the center from spinning about it’s axis. This termed an oblate spheroid.
One thing I’ve noticed about science. The less people know about a particular field of endeavour, the more absolutely certain they are that they know all about it.
Again, Anthropogenic Global Warming is a myth propogated by the left wing who have endless uses for other peoples money.
Garth refers to sentiment as one of the key factors affecting price trends in housing. Once sentiment changes, rates, terms, etc, don’t matter, the herd is turning and is unstoppable.
With more and more “negative” stories in MSM lately, and particularly the 25% one we’re seeing linked here, does this mark the beginning of the tide? This report is being parroted everywhere. Of course, everywhere it is parroted, it is followed by a “market expert” to tell us it’s different here. Slowly, the chips are falling into place. Not so much talk of gains to be made in real estate anymore.
Oh the smug Canadian, brainwashed by years of propoganda ” we are different here”.
We have 30 Million, up against a global population of 6 Billion.
The US, our immediate neighbour, has 10 X’s the population.
Long established sophisticated countries /cultures ( ie such as Europe) were sold out. When the EU was created, was the ACTUAL intent to use the economically unified body as a vector so that it could be attacked in one viral swoop by the vested interests ?
Canada does not have the defences to ward of economic judgement day. The CMHC was once an ally to the citizens, but is now being used as a weapon against the citizens. At least in the US, the ponzi scheme collapsed because in the private sector it comes sooner than later.
In Canada, the Gov’t simply controls and feeds the CMHC monster… but with a Goldman Sachs alumni “conveniently” in place at BoC.
I doubt that even 5% of the Canadian population even knows what is going on in their own Country…if they knew their would probably be riots on par with Egypts’.
Even the so called neutral experts (Profs etc) don’t dare tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth , its always spun, polished varnished etc.
If these experts were MD’s their patients would be DOA.
Get your collective heads out of your collective asses.
#127 Devil’s Advocate
DA, you are the man and dont let the pups and poodles drag you down, are we still on for skiing later on? Ahh, the realtor life, it really does suck.
@108 The Original Dave:
Tip’o the hat to you, Sir.
Can you please share the sources you use to educate yourself? It will be evry much appreciated.
Cheers!
#47 Hans
Did Greece raise interest rates? Did Iceland? Did Portugal? Did Ireland? Did Spain?
No they didn’t. That’s because they don’t set rates.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GCAN5YR:IND
“How does Nicolas Cage get behind on his mortgage payments? The same way other rich and famous people do.
“They’ve stretched themselves higher than they probably should have,” says John Anderson, owner of Twin Oaks Realty in Minneapolis and a National Association of Realtors expert in foreclosures. Some couldn’t keep up when the rates on their adjustable rate mortgages shot up, Anderson says. Price drops at the high end of the market were so steep that a sale wouldn’t cover the debt. In other words, high-end homeowners face the same problems that plague the rest of us.”
Working in a Bankruptcy office – if this is an indication of our economy – hold onto your hats –
December, a typically slow month (due to holidays) was one of our busiest on record. A number of staff who had booked holidays were told that for the next foreseable future – no holidays unless its urgent!
Newspaper reported recently that bankruptcies filings have actually fallen – a duhhh – yeah – because the changes in the BIA is having Trustee’s gear towards proposals – that makes about 80% of our current filings – that report really gives a false sense – no fire over here people, keep moving along – nothing to see.
And as I spoke with brother-in-law, he actually believes that filing is a easy process and get on with your life. Why was it such a stigma years before – well, I told him – credit is so abundant that banks are falling overthemselves to loan you money after your discharge – that may all come to a brutal end when the taps are turned off with easy credit.
Only AAA+ credit ratings are gonna get any decent loan, the 70’s tight fisted credit policy will return. And if you think the Real Estate market has gone abolute ape sh&t – a client filed 2 weeks ago – walks into the office – provides us with $156k in unsecured debts and wants to file immediately. He actually got upset with the staff after 45 minutes cause this process was taking too long …. (he had better things to do).
Hey, your not ordering a burger here – there are a number of steps involved. A guy who understands that under today’s credit conditions – he’ll be off racking up debt in a few short months – of course – if the taps run dry – he may just have to pack his bags and return to his place of origin – cause he won’t be making anything here!
The fiscally irresponsible rule the day (or for now – so to speak).
Cheers to all the bloggers – I enjoy those who post links to economic side clips – keep up the awesome work!
#1 Burnt Norton on 02.03.11 at 11:46 pmSome interesting anecdotes from Americans dealing with underwater mortgages and predatory lenders:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/03/learning-to-walk-underwater-mortgages_n_818315.html
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Thanks for posting just more proof banks don’t want to help people, all orchastrated. Sad to read about somone who put down $120,000 and lost it.
Prospera Credit Union advertises 3-yr. term deposits….1% in the first year, 2% in the second year…and a “whopping 4% in the third”. Pathetic?
** 2nd Post ** G-Man – having a hard time finding even a single copy of your new book “Money Road” in a few of the Chapters stores that I frequent.
Is Heather advised to keep your book under wraps ? In the section that had your previous books which I purchased äfter the crash”which in my humble opinion was abit over the top – it would have made for a great hollywood movie – the end of man [part 2].
Anyways – I guess your book is competing with a very long list of books on how to profit from real estate / 10 easy steps in making money while doing nothing / the secrets from CEO’s and how to apply them – and my favourite – Rich Dad Poor Dad – what a waste of paper – I actually pity the tree that felled to be made paper and have this garbage printed on it….
p.s. I don’t purchase books online as I like to get a quick overview before throwing away my hard earned cash!! I have learned from experience that the fancier the cover – it usually lacks any credible info inside –
You can get a book here instantly. Signed. Say, you must have a tough time in restaurants. — Garth
Lookback:
Friday 9 March 2001 02.27 GMT
Jill Treanor and Peter Capella in Geneva The Guardian,
Banks guilty of laundering
Fifteen British-based banks were yesterday censured by City regulators for flouting anti-money laundering rules after a three-month investigation into 42 accounts linked to former Nigerian president General Sani Abacha.
The City of London police is now expected to open an investigation into how almost £1bn was moved between a total of 23 British-based banks that held accounts for the family of the former president, who died from an overdose of Viagra in 1998.
=======================
British firms face bribery blacklist, warns corruption watchdogAttempts to limit Bribery Act weaken competitiveness, says Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development implementation was “disastrous news”. He said it “raised serious doubts about the credibility of the government’s commitment to the Bribery Act, which was passed in the last parliament on the basis of an all-party consensus”.
===========================================
Mubarak: ‘If I resign today there will be chaos’…well maybe with questions like why should you have amassed a 40-70-billion dollar empire while you people 40% live in poverty?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/04/hosni-mubarak-family-fortune
Gulf states required foreigners give a local business partner a 51% stake in start-up ventures. In Egypt, the figure is commonly nearer 20%, but still gives politicians and close allies in the military a source of huge profits with no initial outlay and little risk.
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Eva Joly:
…”Polemical and incendiary asides follow thick and fast. She talks about Joseph Cassano, the former financial engineering executive at bailed-out US insurer AIG (“What kind of good does he do humanity? None”); WikiLeaks (“It shows it is possible to tell people what really happened. This is prevention of fraud”); of the late Nigerian dictator Sani Abacha (“He laundered millions, and he used London. The banks that received this money are getting away with it”); and of the UK’s non-dom tax arrangements for the super-rich (“This is a serious hole in European tax co-operation”).”
Some of her most swingeing analysis is reserved for the Britain’s failure to tame the forces in the Square Mile. “Your political and business elites are asking for sacrifice, asking to close down public services – you are cutting the number of public sector jobs by 400,000. Why don’t your politicians have the courage to recover taxes in order to be able to pay for the schools, the teachers, the hospitals? To me, tax is civilization. It is the basis of your social contract.”
The decision by the justice secretary, Kenneth Clarke, to delay implementing the Bribery Act, passed in the dying days of the Labour government, enrages Joly. “We have been waiting for that how long? 20 years?” Contrary to claims by CBI boss John Cridland that the act was “not fit for purpose”, Joly insists it would merely bring Britain into line with standards elsewhere in Europe.
>#134 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 02.04.11 at 2:37 pm
Just curious: Under what predictive reasoning do any new governments in the Middle East not need to raise a boat load of cash as fast as possible?
#137 Vancouver is great….
You said, “Again, Anthropogenic Global Warming is a myth propogated by the left wing who have endless uses for other peoples money.”
Complete and total nonsense. It is a reality. Get your head out of the sand.
33 BC Bring Cash on 02.04.11 at 1:20 am
There are going to be a lot of disappointed people that believed in the PROFESSIONAL ECONOMIST HARPER’S GONG SHOW. Stand by for the melt down.
Yup! right after the election.
You know, just like Campbell’s “We are not planning to impliment an HST at this time”
Why is it that Canadians do not remember his (Harper’s) statement ” You will not recognize this country when I am done.”
Trouble is it no longer matters if he wins or looses.
We are screwed into debt so bad that I don’t think we can recover. Not in my life time.
#11 Elmer on 02.04.11 at 12:31 am
When I (as a non-realtor) see a house for sale on MLS and then it disappears, is there an easy way to check what it sold for?
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Elmer: if you are in the Vancouver area you can get sold info from http://www.HomeBuyAndSell.com on automated e-mails – below is a sample of the type of info I get.
MLS # F1024027
Address: 17335 1A AV
List Price $699,000
Sold Price: $623,883
List Date 18-Sep-10
Sold Date: 16-Jan-11
Original Price: $749,000
Floor Area
Above Main: 915
Main Floor: 1,032
Basement 1,426
Total Sq Ft 3,373
Yr Blt: 2010
Finished Lvls: 3
Lot Size 3,454
I don’t know, the rear cabin of the Hindenburg looks pretty cozy – they even had a grand piano! Have a peak:
http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://www.456fis.org/The%2520Hindenburg/HINDENBURG%2520(8).jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.456fis.org/THE_HINDENBURG.htm&usg=__aHv8aPHpy4knAaohFZMbeUV6FdQ=&h=430&w=600&sz=55&hl=en&start=0&zoom=1&tbnid=KeZO_6QQNBb2HM:&tbnh=139&tbnw=183&ei=E1hMTZPKN4GB8gaH7omzDg&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dinterior%2Bof%2Bthe%2Bhindenburg%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26rls%3Dcom.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox%26rlz%3D1I7GFRC_en%26biw%3D1360%26bih%3D625%26tbs%3Disch:1&um=1&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=313&vpy=121&dur=1041&hovh=190&hovw=265&tx=132&ty=110&oei=E1hMTZPKN4GB8gaH7omzDg&esq=1&page=1&ndsp=18&ved=1t:429,r:1,s:0
Devil’s Advocate:
I’m wondering if you choose to gather your statistics from the raw MLS data base because they do not separate waterfront residential sales from other residential sales, as they are with the published statistics.
The four residential waterfront properties which sold in January for an average price of $1,496,250 make the picture more rosy than it really is.
#5 Bubble Boy – Good point. The only materially important thing to add is that those people who would be deeply underwater when renewal of their 5/35’s come due in 2015 will act on it long before then…markets absorb and respond to information immediately (at least, efficient ones do…not so much Canadian dreamers!!).
#20 Hoof – Hearted — “. . . fell into the full septic tank ,over his head . . .”
Yesterday I received an e-mail from a friend, with pix, that showed a brand-new, 85-foot custom-built luxury yacht, costing approx. US$7.25 mln.
Loaded to the hilt with all new gadgets and gizmos on board, with approx. 150 or so friends, the yacht’s builders on board with cheque in hand for the cost of the yacht and waiting for the launch, champagne, chocolate-covered strawberries and other goodies, an orchestra to guide the boat into it’s new adventure, it was hoisted high into the air — complete with one faulty winch — then, when being lowered slowly down from about fifty feet high for clearance reasons, that faulty winch broke and all hell broke loose.
The last pic was of a brand new yacht, upside down in the harbor with guests on lifeboats. Refund? Opulence gone mad!
Life always springs its own surprises on us!
#32 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) — “The real problem will occur when floating and other low interest rate loans renew at higher interest rates . . .”
See the e-mail story for how quickly things can change in an instant. The stupidity and greed of mankind is limitless.
#47 Hans — “. . . will Canada rise rates . . .” — If Carney does, then see #32 InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) post above. Yes, it will be suicide by a thousand cuts, and it will hurt plenty.
#80 Timing is Everything and #69 Off-Gridder — Really like the Kootenays lifestyle, esp. New Denver. Black bears are nice and cuddly, but grizzlies? No thanks!
#134 VICTORIA TEA PARTY — Great post, and it all adds up with what others and I have written about here — the housing decline, fiscal crash, civil wars or riots, etc. — all this, when put together will lead to a much-needed change in the way life, as we know it, continuously evolves.
We may or may not like the in-between part, but that doesn’t matter as the wheels are already in motion and cannot be stopped.
Change is inevitable, it’s sheeple who are unable to keep up with change that will / are suffer.
#137 Vancouver is a great town …. to be from — “. . . by the left wing who have endless uses for other peoples money.”
Hence the strong push for a new carbon tax — unnecessary except for Gore and his buddies to get richer — and to screw sheeple into the ground by taxing them out of existence.
At the beginning on this posting was the comment:
The people that leveraged up and doubled or tripled what they put in are the real winners. They are driving around in the fancy cars and have lived their lives.
Thats debatable. First, the people who leveraged and made a gain will only realize the gain if they sell, much like how the people who made big gains on tech stocks were the ones who sold while they were still high.
As for equating driving fancy cars and living their lives, I drive an old 1993 beater with 322,400 Km on it and am living my life best because I’m not worrying about big payments or the bank repo people showing up if I don’t make those payments. I’m not employed now, but far from worrying I am enjoying the freedom. it’s heaven being debt free, having savings to live on, and not being panicky and desperate for an income. It’s also worth noting that I sleep quite well at night.
#127 Devil’s Advocate…..over here..focus…forget the squirrel.
anyway, just curious what is A.D.D.D.A.? have a great day !
Yu are correct; for the purposes of that exercise I did not seperate the waterfront properties from the rest. I do not recall the person to which I was responding to have indicated in any way that they had. None-the-less, my feduciary duties to them and you are… practically non-existent and I don’t have time to spend the time to break out a specific set of stats based on your unique criteria. Waterfront in or waterfront out I am not trying to say the market is anything other than it is…
Prices are NOT going up.
But Prices are not going down as much as the Blog Dawgs claim they are.
There are a number of property owners who will wait to list when Spring breaks.
If you are seriously contemplating selling this year, beat the competiton by getting it on the market now and get it on for an agressively realistic price!
If you are buying, take your time and buy quality.
Timeless advice.
};-)
A.D.D.D.A.
#150Junius-If you actually believe these grifters are able or even motivated to save your butt then you are definitely the one with your head deep in the sand.
#154 Alpha_Bear on 02.04.11 at 4:41 pm
Not that I entirely disagree with what you are getting at, but along the same line why don’t we knock off all those lower end homes or anything with less than 3 bedrooms, or anything that has stainless and granite. I know that’s a little extreme but I think you know what I am getting at.
If you want to know the stats for a specific segment of the market I can give them to you narrowed right down to a street block. Just flip me an email at [email protected].
bubble boy,
“I didn’t mean that he would be buying a house as an investment/savings vehicle.”
Neither did I, he has made his ‘need’ as you call it with his baby, facebook. The need is to try to create a little wealth of some sort. Majority of people who rent usually have nothing at the end, and that my friend is fact.
I’m sure there are some savvy renters on this blog, but that is the minority.
#156 Nostradamus LMV..
have you ever checked out the website, http://dieoff.org/
you might find it interesting…love your posts and links,thanks.
DA
Don’t you have a job?
Go sell something man, you are on this board day and night….jeeeez.
If all is well then people don’t need you to defend the status quo. We get it you are the housing mesiah and you’ve come to save the RE bears.
#48 EJ
“Oh, and here’s a link that shows you what happens to people who dare to tell the truth during a mania phase (as if you didn’t already know first hand):
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/merrill-fired-analyst-who-angered-huge-bank-clients-before-financial-crisis-says-michael-lewis-535889.html”
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Jeremy Grantham has written on this idea, which elaborates on Keynes. As an economist/financial advisor/portfolio manager, you can be wrong, just don’t be wrong ALONE. You can be wrong along with your peers without consequence, since you can then claim that nobody could have foreseen the outcome. There is a big risk in sticking your neck out and making a claim that is different from the general consensus, but little consequence to going along with the herd, even when they’re wrong.
“A sound banker, alas, is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined,
is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him.” (from John Maynard Keynes, “Treatise on Money,” 1930)
It’s funny that some have studied this writing and taken it as a warning or criticism of the herd mentality, like Grantham, and some – like Bernanke?- take it almost as an instruction manual.
#149 AG Sage
It’s demographics. The average age of citizens in most Mideastern countries is in the high 20s. And unemployment is much too rampant in too many of those jurisdictions.
So, those countries blessed with lots of hydrocarbons in the ground need to sell a percentage of the oil to help keep the Street subdued, with bread and circuses and such (Those countries without the black stuff are sitting targets for whatever shakes out in the next while thanks to the Egyptian eruptions.).
However, the oil won’t last forever so some OPECers are already sequestering some of their reserves of oil and natty gas for future considerations. It’s called protecting your flank. That flank includes fancy cars and chicks. No squirrel stew here; maybe in Chicago but not in Dubai.
We have no clue what’s going to happen next in the “Arab Street”. But higher costs of living for the West are baked in the cake one way or another.
Don’t forget this latest round of protests was generated by food price inflation, caused by higher priced (in US dollars) commodities.
Why? The US central banker, Ben Bernanke, and the US Treasury Dep’t, are busy printing 600-hundred billion US dollars to prop up their failing economic system.
That system’s still going down and the more money that is printed the uglier the outcome. We’ve seen nothing yet.
Clearly the proof that the RE industry is in trouble is obvious here on this blog. Every second post today is from a realtor. Sign of the times.
#160 BrianT,
Say whatever you like but the notion that Climate change is some soft of left wing conspiracy is just whacky. It is not a left or right issue although why it has been embraced by the right and tinfoil crowd is beyond me.
Argue the Science and not the motivation or political agenda. The Science is very clear and you are wrong.
#150 Junius on 02.04.11 at 4:16 pm
#137 Vancouver is great….
You said, “Again, Anthropogenic Global Warming is a myth propogated by the left wing who have endless uses for other peoples money.”
Complete and total nonsense. It is a reality. Get your head out of the sand.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Unfortunately, it is you who has his (or her) head in the sand. CO2 is a very weak greenhouse gas, far weaker and far less prevalent than water vapour.
The physics of CO2 heat trapping show (experimentally verified, by the way) that 80% of the heat trapping effect occurs in the first 20 parts per million of concentration in the atmosphere. After that, the effect of addditional ppm falls like a stone. The atmosphere has 380 ppm. At that level, even doubling it to 780 ppm will result in minimal additional heating. This makes sense historically, as CO2 levels were many times higher many times in the past than they are now, with no ill effects. But David Suzuki and Al Gore are saying “No..NO.. It’s DIFFERENT THIS TIME!”
But how can that be? David Suzuki and Al Gore say we are all going to burn in hell?
It’s fairly simple really, all about self delusion. The self same phenomenon that GT burbles on about in this insignificant blog and that BPOE lives in.
The temperature data didn’t match what they “knew” should be happening, so they played with their computer models, adding and invented fudge factors (Kind of like “Hot Asian Money” or “Everyone Wants to Live Here”) until they got the answer that they “knew ” was the “right” one.
Kind of what the realtors due with the RE stats: Don’t like the stats? Play with them until you get a number that you like and then flog the crap out of and make some $$ along the way.
Real Estate Pumpers = David Suzuki +Al Gore
Even more pathetic than this blog.
#132 Dodged-A-Bullit-in Alberta
Teh he.
I suspect that this poem is dedicated to DA
“Oh freddled gruntbuggly/thy micturations are to me/As plurdled gabbleblotchits on a lurgid bee.
Groop I implore thee, my foonting turlingdromes. And hooptiously drangle me with crinkly bindlewurdles,
Or I will rend thee in the gobberwarts with my blurglecruncheon, see if I don’t!”
You’re late for your 6pm rub-down.
As suspected, DA and miley the house humper are partner humpers who have no phones to answer. Must suck making zero income for the last few months.
Because it is a matter of record that I do not at all today believe that
—-
I just penciled that into my calendar. Maybe I have just changed the future or maybe that was in it all along.
:)
Just a humble servant of the people OPEC. But yes indeed all indeed IS well and I really don’t need to defend that status quo. Those who are led by the nose to financial ruin are doing so of their own volition and at their own peril, why should I care. How anti-Darwinian of me to intervene! Massiah? Divinity is, by definition, beyond the grasp of mortal comprehension and in that maybe I am a messiah of sorts in that I try to bridge that gap between the divine reality of the market and the expressed selfish fantasy prayed for as is so often apparent within the comments section of these blogs. Blasphemy? Who is to say? My god might be quite different than yours, my heaven your hell. And maybe it is your gods will. What of my speech did you leave with? None? I hardly think so as it passed through your mind and thus will forever be there filed away in the memory banks. Ignored? Maybe. Forever? We will see. I am you, you are me. What a intriguing thing this internet is don’t you think. Eventually we will all be the colour of mud and all think the same thought. Evolution. Are we not all Massiahs in our quest to have influence on our common destiny? ;-)
};-)
A.D.D.D.A.
Oh look a bunny
Hey man work with me I’m shooting from the hip here buddy. Just tryin’ to add a little levity to the gig and makin’ it real.
BINGO!!! ding, ding, ding, ding, ding
Woooho… Mikey gets serious and shoots straight on target. Right on BRO!
connect the dots people…. connect the dots.
};-)
….and in the WESTSIDE WEEKLY: “Crystal Ski Resorts’ expansion plans appear to have hit the downslopes of the new economic reality.
The first phase of a major development proposed for Crystal has been drastically cut, from 1200 to 418 beds, or from 203 resicdential equivalent units to 70…the proponents have been unsuccessful in their attempt to secure financing for the entire phase one development….”
Don’t second guess yourself. It is instinctive for humans to follow others. Safety in numbers is the train of thought. Your patience will be rewarded and so will mine.
———
I think we’re at the point where it is hard to know what the crowd is really doing.
I work in finance and get firsthand view of what is happening in pensions. The LARGE majority of investors don’t even look at their portfolios so they never even cashed out when markets tanked.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the ones who lost the most are the ones who are the most dedicared and pro active… by selling out and never going back in. But that is the MINORITY.
The sheep in Canada has been buying all the way through this ordeal.
Where you’ve been wrong I think is underestimating the great lengths that the federal government and the Bank of Canada would go in order to ward off a depression – including crashing interest rates to the floor.
————-
Where I was wrong is in underestimating the willingness of Canadians to risk their financial well-being and marriages.
Now I understand why the divorce rate averages 50%.
It took me 40 years to get it but I finally got it.
This month’s (March) Toronto Life magazine has an article about the ‘Art of selling your own home’.
We must be in a bubble, it’s so easy like trading stocks, anyone can do it !?!?
Yesterday: 202 Hoof Hearted on 02.03.11 at 11:37 pm
Between the Crown and the Grim Reaper…we are ALL renters
-Indeed. I think the Tragically Hip’s lyrics from “Trickle Down” sum it up…belly up, all the drinks are on the Crown.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXFiXh1BSYk
Old lion’s dying, got left behind cut your teeth
Lose your meat and man it’s just a matter of time
Key’s to the cuffs, you might be king
That’s it, that’s all, that’s everything
Skeletons come here to dance
Where barrooms beat their brothers into a bloody trance
What’s the deal? What did I do?
Who cops all the cops is all I asked of you
Lining up, waiting on the trickle down
Something’s up, taking time to get around
Belly up, all the drinks are on the crown
It’s just a matter of trickle down
Twenty miles before the crash
That’s the style for a while and man, I think it’s gonna last
Hit the breaks is all you can say
Conductor says, “We’ll save them for another rainy day”
Lining up, waiting on the trickle down
Something’s up, taking time to get around
Belly up, all the drinks are on the crown
It’s just a matter of a trickle down
Old lion’s dying, got left behind cut your teeth
Lose your meat and man it’s just a matter of time
Key’s to the cuffs, you might be king
That’s it, that’s all, that’s everything
#169 Vancouver is great….
This blog is not about Climate change but you need to know that many people don’t agree with your opinion or your characterizations. To compare these scientists and even people like Al Gore to Re pumpers is obnoxious and deserves a response.
The leading scientist in the field is James Hansen who worked for NASA. He is not political although he admitted to voting Republican more than Democrat. Read his book, “Storms of My Grandchildren” and take the argument up with him.
Given a choice between you and him on the Science I am going to stick with him. Where is your book?
yup ….DA is suckin the Coffee Urn dry…. 21 posts so far today…. Is that a new record for the “D” meister?
Hey Devil’s Advocate, all your shouting and preening is getting to me.
If I buy some overpriced shack in Kelowna from you, will you promise to leave this board for a year?
It would make my reading much more efficient and I wouldn’t be missing any useful insight or commentary.
Today you tired me out, pal.
Hey how is your wife BTW?
–
#163 Stevermt — Thanks for the feedback and great link! Appreciate it!
1:40 clip Some will remember the Irish comedian Dave Allen. Great sketch, but nothing verbal.
Puzzle The pieces of which are falling into place nicely, plus Arizona has had enough — unofficially seceding.
Bill and Melinda Gates — Picture-poster new-age couple ripe for the plucking!
Upcoming FF? “Remember the Super Bowl.” wrh.com. And the snow storm, which apparently now reaches Scotland. This Sunday.
Egypt “Translation: Screw ‘consent of the governed’! The US will invade Egypt to keep the old pro-Israel regime in power under CIA torturer in chief Omar Suleiman. The Egyptian people are rebelling to gain a better life and the United States Government is trying to make sure it gets worse.” wrh.com. Goes with a link posted the other night — CIA and Mossad are involved at the highest level.
Food Prices “You know, those three hard winters in a row the government insisted we did not need to prepare for?” wrh.com.
2:49 clip Infrastructure deteriorating.
Ulcer Time “Cities of Rafah, Al-Arish, are bordering Gaza. Ismailia is not far from the Suez Canal … that will give Bibi Netanyahu an ulcer.” wrh.com.
US – Egypt 2015 — big-time inflation?
Hopeless The US economy, that is plus — Another economic martial law moment.
2:49 clip Sea ice growing at fast pace. AGW my ass! That ‘scientific research’ was paid for by the oil companies so a new carbon tax would be imposed on us.
WW3 Celente may be right on this, as history seems to support him. Economic collapse / depression first leading to war. The outcome is quite unpredictable, ‘tho.
7:28 clip California bankrupt, and the GOP may push other states into the same fold. Also — Stockton, Calif.
Ah but one, maybe two, does not a trend make.
};-)
#144 Carpe Diem
December, a typically slow month (due to holidays) was one of our busiest on record…..Newspaper reported recently that bankruptcies filings have actually fallen – a duhhh – yeah – because the changes in the BIA is having Trustee’s gear towards proposals – that makes about 80% of our current filings – that report really gives a false sense – no fire over here people, keep moving along – nothing to see.
———————————————————
Well you sure got my curiousity up. Is it that bad in the insolvency business (or good depending on what side of the counter you are on)?
Will we see record defaults in the news soon? What do you mean about changes to the BIA? I am assuming it means the Bankruptcy Act although I can’t for the life of me think of what the “I” stands for.
Can you write a little more on the subject Carpe Diem? I know that many people are deep in debt but it has always been commonly understood that defaults are fairly rare in Canada even under trying circumstances.
But you are not getting holidays! Must be a story here.
Junius:
But I will let you in on a little secret.
When the market was robust with exuberance many a starry eyed Donald Trump wanna be took that real estate correspondence course and passed the exam with 60% that they qualified to become a licensed REALTOR®. They then hung their shingle out front the door of their designated agency and waited for the listings and greater fools to start rolling in. And roll in they did then coming relatively fast and easy. Now though that the market has changed things are not quite so easy as they first appeared they would be in perpetuity. Many a new agent is now working part time to make ends meet and/or working through what is left of their LOC counting the long, long void days between deals, postponing canceling of their license hoping the good times will return. But return they will not, not in time to save their day. Meanwhile there is little to be shared by all and many will indeed fail. Only the strong will survive and it will cost them too as equilibrium in our market is sought by agent numbers too.
It’s a tough business in which only the strong survive. I have seen in my many years in this business it crush too many a good man and destroy many a marriage. It is ever thus that the good times bait they who should not to the field of broken dreams.
Watch Junius if that is the type of entertainment you seek. In due time there will be plenty of carnage to satisfy your thirst for blood. In the meantime troll the highways for wicked car wreck that will satisfy your wanton need to know that there are indeed others who meet an end more wicked than that you endure.
};-)
Hey Garth,
Why don’t you write about some of your dealings with Gary Player back in the day? As I recall 3 Trust Companies got shut down after some shady dealings.
Charismatic dude. But I had no dealings. I was a reporter. — Garth
#148 jess
Thanks for the link to the Mubarak fortune Jess. Good to see the Guardian picked up on that story. I had written about exactly the same topic the day prior.
What is interesting is that the US has contributed something in the range of 86 billion dollars to Egypt over the past 30 years. When you count the wealth accumulated by all the Mubarak clan it is (at a very rough guess) equal to half of all USD contributions over that time period.
Much of the rest was used to purchase arms (fighter jets, tanks and related equipment) from the States and therefore recycled back into the American economy.
Such is the nature of politics in the Mid-East. Here is the article to chew on if you are interested.
http://www.rickackerman.com/2011/02/mubarak-tips-foes-toward-civil-war/
Interest rates will soon be rising and housing will soon be crashing and bursting into flames.
Just a couple curious questions to readers: Are there ETFs out there that would allow to gain from a decline in housing prices? Or can you recommend a website where I could find information on decent Real Estate ETFs? Thanks for your replies in advance. A.
#185 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad
“Cities of Rafah and Al-Arish are bordering Gaza. Ismailia is not far from the Suez Canal … that will give Bibi Netanyahu an ulcer.”
———————————————————-
Good to see you are back to posting daily links. You know I am a big fan buddy! Ismailia by the way is on the Suez. I stayed there on my tour although it is not the warmest and friendliest of places to stay (they get really stressed when you take pictures of the canal and the ships…even threaten to throw you in jail!).
Anyway, what transpires there is no real concern of Netanyahu. For that matter, even the departure of Mr Mubarak is not a big worry in Israel at the military level.
I know, I know, they have stated they want Mubarak to stay on blah, blah, blah. You need to understand how these guys think though to appreciate the hilarity of those statements.
Whatever Israel wants, the Arab world will try to deprive them of. So when they say they want Mubarak to stay they are just playing a childish game of reverse psychology. You need to interpret their words to mean that Israel does in fact want the Mubarak regime gone at this stage of the game.
Now you will want to know why and I will tell you in one single word. Gamal. They don’t trust him.
You can figure out the rest I am sure. Israel did not want to see Mubaraks son take the Presidential post in Egypt and has played it’s hand by pining for Hosni to remain in power knowing full well that the Egyptian populace would work all that much harder to get rid of him if only because Israel wanted him.
Hope this makes sense.
ADDDA = Attention Deficit Disorder Devil’s Advocate
More specifically, it should be ADHDDA, by reference of the DSM-IV.
Everyone else’s mileage may vary.
Oh, and don’t feed the trolls.
137 from Van
OK smart guy…..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoid
What’s that!….Just now…. A faint whiff of blood. It has arrived. There is nowhere to hide. It is too late. One by one the weak ones fall. It will be unpleasant to watch, in a way. Yet fascinating, none the less.
After the pain… and the slaughtered are forgotten, there will be opportunities. Many. It will never again be as it was. A major shift is taking place.
Are you ready?
@ #162 Mikey the Realtor / #175 Devil’s Advocate :
You guys can have your little “realtor love-in” with each other, but there are many of us lowly renters who are out-earning and out-investing our debt-loving counterparts.
We sold our condo in the spring, and love the freedom of renting and watching the dividends flow on the investments!
Also – the home we rent would cost approximately $800-$1000 more per month to own vs. rent!
(based on a 3%/25-yr mortgage)
Alex: Been down in Arizona for the past couple of weeks, vacationing and looking at potential wintering homes. And I’ll tell you this: Land has plunged – HARD.
great post Alex!
AbitibiDoug: It’s also worth noting that I sleep quite well at night.
yeah in Abitibi
Carpe Diem: talking about easy credit if the taps run dry
when the taps run dry
Tiffa: “A sound banker, alas, is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way “
pretty funny
#188,
Dear Weird Dude,
What the hell are you talking about?
““It’s pretty booming over here. Definitely. When I first came here people were telling me that the economy was going down but they’re finding it’s definitely starting to come back up again. But for me as an outsider I definitely find it booming over here. It’s definitely much easier than in Ireland to find a job.”
Quote taken from a new arrival to Calgary from Ireland in a Calgary Herald article.
While the economy in Calgary and Alberta from our perspective is not great,she finds it “booming” over here compared to Ireland.
Its not that we just “think” its different here. IT IS freaking different here, straight out of the mouth of a new arrival from Ireland.
This is why our housing market will not crash like Ireland, or the US, or other parts of Europe. People move to Calgary and Alberta and fairly easily get a job and create new demand for housing. Until this trend stops happening the housing market will not tank like all you people are waiting for.
Nothing more to say today . Almost next blog to read but I thought you might like the gif of the herd going over the cliff near the bottom of the page and could keep some entertained all night. And it’s near cowtown.
http://www.head-smashed-in.com/
Not sure if it’s irony or not .
Garth, re Player….I heard you engaged in some less than arms length flipping….friends in high places, back in the day.
You heard wrong. — Garth
Garth any comments? Viva la Winnipeg!
http://www.winnipegrealtors.ca/press/Jan11pr/Jan11pr.pdf
So – the Chinese are going to buy up Vancouver?
> “To understand how far ordinary Chinese have been priced out of their country’s property market, you need to look not upwards at the Beijing’s shimmering high-rise skyline, but down, far below the bustling streets where nearly 20m people live and work.
There, in the city’s vast network of unused air defence bunkers, as many as a million people live in small, windowless rooms that rent for £30 to £50 a month, which is as much as many of the city’s army of migrant labourers can afford.
Checking out the price of property above ground it is not difficult to see why. To buy a small flat (860 sq ft) in the tower block above – a typically grim, grey concrete affair – currently costs more than £200,000. In a city where the average monthly salary is 4,000 yuan, the average person would take 50 years to buy such an apartment, assuming they saved every penny they earned.
http://tinyurl.com/4794pvw
No Property Bubble in the Middle kingdom, gee, and you can bet no one is “speculating”.
Whoa, Nellie.