Smooth

He built two houses, a year apart. Same street, same size, similar, side-by-side. The first sold in one day for $700,000, last year. The second just sold after four months of showings, for $640,000. The city: Victoria.

Meanwhile blog dog Carlyle chronicled what happened to his house this week. One day, nine showings, two offers, sold to house-horny 20-something newlyweds. Setting a new price record for a dreary suburban slap-build. The city: Milton.

In Vancouver, multiple offers in Richmond, while new listings surge everywhere and suddenly it’s a lot harder to rent your moldy basement suite. In Edmonton and Calgary the market’s so cold realtors have their hands in their own pockets. In Toronto, sales stutter while 35 new condo buildings with 17,000 units are soon to be unleashed.

What does all this mean? Beats me. But I’ll take a stab.

In all of the country there is one constant: sales of existing homes have declined now on an annual basis for seven months. During this time variable-rate mortgage costs have stayed low and stable, while five-year money has sunk into the 3% range. Also over the last half-year, Canadian household debt has risen and unemployment has remained about the same. So it’s fair to assume incomes have also flatlined.

Is this a healthy picture? Does it set the scene for a robust balanced market once the thaw sets in?

Hardly. Sales momentum is weak, despite ideal borrowing conditions. Families have less disposable income and the economy is barely moving. And a mess of new listings is likely to wash over the market in the next eight weeks. This is a formula for unhappy sellers.

Meanwhile, the peer-to-peer evidence contained in this pathetic blog’s perverted comment section is worth noting. Sales evaporate in the bucolic curvaceousness south of Kelowna. Chalets in ritzy ski country north of Toronto go begging for buyers. Cottages and retreats outside Vancouver drop in value by half. Powers of sale surge in suburban Brampton.

But how can we have so much droop while this blog is regaled with news of an offering orgy in Milton? As expected, blame F.

That announcement which killed off 35-year mortgages is having the anticipated effect. Egged on by lenders and mortgage brokers, it seems a new squad of  property virgins has rushed in to be sacrificed on the altar of stupidity. They’re madly pre-approving, shopping, offering and financing, trying to deep throat the greatest amount of debt possible before the March 18th deadline. Poor kids. Buying in haste at high prices with financing destined to cost more on assets sure to swoon. Doesn’t anyone tweet about this?

Of course there’s a precedent for this kinda thing – when government affects real estate buyer behaviour through an arbitrary deadline. When the Obama $8,000 homebuyer grant expired last summer, the housing market withered and died. It became apparent that all Washington had done was pull forward some dregs of future demand, instead of providing a much-needed spark of ignition. Besides costing billions and being unfair to existing homeowners, it actually hurt everybody. Even those who took the freebie money, and purchased, saw their equity start to decline within weeks.

Could F’s bomb have a similar effect? Could it trick enough comatose young couples into advancing their buying decisions so that April becomes the cruelest month? Combined with the spring listings gush, crappy sales momentum and debt overload, is this a game changer?

Maybe. But it’s a new game already.

Somebody should tell the kids.

296 comments ↓

#1 TheBestPlaceOnEarth on 01.21.11 at 10:52 pm

Richmond BC rip roaring ahead. Look for solid numbers and price increases as we head into Spring. I just have to close my window as a honey bee just flew in. Did I mention this is the best place on earth? Keep shovelling snow Canada, we’re off skiing, golfing and sailing tommorow. For potential new owners last chance to load up big. Don’t miss out on this gift of financial prosperity

#2 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 01.21.11 at 11:00 pm

eleventh!

How did I do?

#3 Debt's Dark Embrace on 01.21.11 at 11:02 pm

It’s all part of the plan. in March there will be another “announcement ” that will further inflate the bubble and another one in June. The universe is unfolding as it should………..

#4 Ayn Rand on 01.21.11 at 11:05 pm

Now that is a big time wedgie!

#5 LJ on 01.21.11 at 11:07 pm

I suspect that in falling markets like Calgary and Edmonton, current buyers might be reluctant to step in front of the Bus to catch that falling knife.

We’ll see.

#6 $froma$ia on 01.21.11 at 11:09 pm

“trying to deep throat the greatest amount of debt possible before the March 18th deadline. Poor kids.”-Garth

Deep Throat+kids= ouch! Doesn’t that make that “House Kiddy Porn”?

$$$

#7 Devil's Advocate on 01.21.11 at 11:11 pm

#168 poco on 01.21.11 at 7:52 pm
and
#169 kitchener1 on 01.21.11 at 7:57 pm

Ba Da Bing! And THAT’S what I’m talkin’ about!

#8 realityguy on 01.21.11 at 11:14 pm

Herd the greater fools over the cliff.

No biggy, declare bankruptcy, insurance will cover and the taxpayers gets screwed.

Banks takes their profit and run and wash their hands from the accumulated debt produced.

Life moves on, all the governments fault for allowing the banks to act as brokers with no consequences for their actions.

The real solution is simple, if a person defaults the banks has to backup a percentage of the responsibilities
/ loss. About 20 to 25 % would sound right. Therefore they will actually think twice before selling these mortgages to people who really shouldn’t be getting them.

Like the Lady with a huge student loan (unpaid) and lots of credit card debt. And they still gave her a loan.
go figure?

#9 Sad on 01.21.11 at 11:18 pm

If only one could turn back time. It’s to late for me as my life has been turned into ruin. A realtor told me prices always go up and never fear since at anytime I could sell for a profit. I bought in the spring in 2008 and not even three years later I lost my wife , children and my house which was called home. These realtors are true garbage and so are those mortgage brokers who commit fraud to get you into a house you could never afford. If only I have found Garth before my dream of owning a home turned into a nightmare.

#10 ExExpat on 01.21.11 at 11:18 pm

Just a thought, what if bankers also drink the Kool-aid and believe house prices will keep rising? Could they keep to 35 year loan party going a bit longer by not demanding CMHC backing? Has to be at least one bank out there greedy or foolish enough to try this.

#11 T.O. Bubble Boy on 01.21.11 at 11:21 pm

Here’s stating the obvious: all that matters is the monthly carrying cost.

For whatever reason, many people (especially younger buyers) can easily comprehend the concept of a monthly payment, but can’t comprehend anything long-term.

Most have these buyers don’t even understand what amortization means. All they know is that if you choose the 35-year option, they “save” on their monthly payment.

Credit Card companies conditioned people into thinking that paying the minimum each month was “normal”, just like mortgage lenders have conditioned most of the general public to believe that taking the maximum possible mortgage for the longest possible amortization is “normal”.

If you ever watch one of those ‘house porn’ shows on HGTV (like Property Virgins), they will once and a while actually show the home buyers going back to check if they can get approved for some giant mortgage. When the couple finds out that they qualify for some giant mortgage amount, it’s like they won the lottery! Doesn’t anyone ever explain that the amount that they qualify for is the absolute maximum that anyone would give them, and therefore the absolute worst-case scenario in terms of affordability?

#12 Hoof - Hearted on 01.21.11 at 11:34 pm

It became apparent that all Washington had done was pull forward some dregs of future demand, instead of providing a much-needed spark of ignition.

==================

Well said

This is not much different than a beef cattle operation, where all the year- olds are slaughtered and then the farmer realizes he has nothing left to propogate his herd as it ages.

As I stated before,Vancouvers Shaugnessy area was the wealthy area to live….large homes/mansions…till the Depression hit….then it was called Poverty Heights, and these mansions converted to bachelor suites with common areas (early strata ??? ).

However, this decadent overbuilding has been established all over Metro Vancouver, whereby excess capacity and increasing building age will likely result in slum areas. Somehow what happened in Detroit seem to be the vision I see as the market crashes.

Unless they allow mortages to those still ” in vitro”.. where the hell are the future buyers going to come from ?

#13 OttawaMike on 01.21.11 at 11:42 pm

I think our resident realtor from Kelowna, whose name escapes me now is correct, demand is getting pushed forward.
Two of my coworkers sold their starter shacks this week with multiple parties interested and both of these places have been listed since November without an offer.

My realtor and mortgage broker pals tell me the same thing. Spring time will see another orgy of first time buyers swan diving in for one last quicky before things die down again.

Riddle me this?
How will the cons win a majority with a tanking housing market.
There are more tricks coming, including cash incentives to buy. The feds did that around 1982 to stimulate RE. Australia did it and as Garth said above, Obama did it.

#14 Mr. Lee on 01.21.11 at 11:45 pm

Ms. Lee and I are contemplating selling the mansion in Calgary while F’s good news on market stimulation continue until March 18 2011. Perhaps F’s move is a blessing for us and others that should unload now while more suckers are being pulled in

Take the wind fall and rent for a while,

Chinese proverb says that a sailer who does not take advantage of the tail wind will soon discover the head wind.

#15 BC Bring Cash on 01.21.11 at 11:45 pm

My brother just told me he just got pre-approved for a mortgage. I’ve been telling him about this blog for weeks. His response, why do you read that crap. Because the market in Calgary has softened he is convinced that the market has tanked and now is a great time to buy. He won’t listen to what Demographers have been telling us for years. Baby Boomers are starting to retire and will realize when their CPP & OAS cheques arrive that they cannot live off an income of approx $1100 per Month. With no savings they will all start unloading RE because thats all they have banked on. Blah blah blah. Makes me want to give up. I ask him why is he so eager to help finance someone elses retirement ? Look after yourself first. He is 34 yrs old. His last chance of getting it right. I hope he will listen to us and wait and see.

#16 Hoof - Hearted on 01.21.11 at 11:46 pm

3 signs that a stock crash is coming

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/3SignsThatAStockCrashIsComing.aspx

#17 sutluc on 01.21.11 at 11:48 pm

@bestplace

“I just have to close my window as a honey bee just flew in.”

Bullshit. I also live around this rainy hellhole.

#18 Devil's Advocate on 01.21.11 at 11:49 pm

#9 Sad on 01.21.11 at 11:18 pm
If only one could turn back time. It’s to late for me as my life has been turned into ruin. A realtor told me prices always go up and never fear since at anytime I could sell for a profit. I bought in the spring in 2008 and not even three years later I lost my wife , children and my house which was called home. These realtors are true garbage and so are those mortgage brokers who commit fraud to get you into a house you could never afford. If only I have found Garth before my dream of owning a home turned into a nightmare.

If the story is true, which I highly doubt, you can’t really blame the REALTOR and mortgage broker for your poor judgement or your wife and kids leaving you. Yes “my wife left me and took the kids with her because of my poor choice in brokers”. Yes that’s it. Grow a set, get your shit together and court her back Dude instead of crying in your soup because you made some bad decisions which you blame on someone else.

#19 bah on 01.21.11 at 11:51 pm

This past week a friend went to see house her son was thinking of buying in GTA. She tells me it’s a dump/shack (1,700 sq ft, that would need about 100,000 in renovations) for asking price of 399,000. After a bidding competition some lucky young sap got it for 550,000. Her son escaped for now but has a RE craving.

#20 Hoof - Hearted on 01.21.11 at 11:51 pm

The financial trap facing the U.S., China

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/TheFinancialTrapFacingTheUSChina.aspx

The United States, the world’s biggest debtor, and China, the world’s biggest creditor, each passed major statistical milestones this month.

In the second quarter, the Commerce Department announced this month, the United States paid more to its foreign creditors than it took in from its overseas investments — the first time that’s happened in 91 years. The gap was relatively small, $2.5 billion for the quarter, when measured against a $13 trillion economy, but it was still a milestone.

At the end of September, China’s foreign-exchange reserves topped $1 trillion. Thanks to foreign investment in China and the country’s huge trade surplus, China’s foreign-exchange reserves are climbing by about $20 billion a month. In recent months, China’s reserves have grown so quickly that the country has taken over first place from Japan, with reserves of $880 billion at the end of August.

Conundrum:

2 countries on parallel tracks :
The two countries couldn’t seem to have less in common: The United States owes an increasing debt, and China is piling up foreign exchange at a record rate. But in reality, both countries face the same problems: How do you balance consumption and savings in a rapidly aging world? The U.S. has gone way too far toward consuming without saving, especially considering the huge financial costs that result from the aging of the baby-boom generation.

But China is out of balance, too. The country saves too much and often invests money foolishly. The country is aging even more rapidly than the United States, albeit from a younger starting point. And it has less infrastructure in place to support that aging population than the United States does. China’s current cash flow may represent a one-shot opportunity to prepare for the aging of that society.

Each, in its own way, is spending too much on the present.

#21 Mean Gene on 01.21.11 at 11:52 pm

The dark side of RRSPs

http://www.canada.com/business/rrsp/dark+side+RRSPs/4131635/story.html

#22 Devil's Advocate on 01.21.11 at 11:54 pm

#9 Sad on 01.21.11 at 11:18 pm

Or maybe it was she who influenced you most to buy in 2008? She got the house? You’re still paying for it? Maybe she shacked up with your REALTOR or mortgage broker? Tell us the whole story why don’t you as there is just way too little information to make a call. But rest assured, ultimately, we all make our own beds.

#23 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 12:06 am

#11 T.O. Bubble Boy on 01.21.11 at 11:21 pm

Doesn’t anyone ever explain that the amount that they qualify for is the absolute maximum that anyone would give them, and therefore the absolute worst-case scenario in terms of affordability?

Um… let me think… um No duh.

Let’s think this through; Now these are contracts, right? And there is a minimum legal age that must be attained before one can be held to a contract, right? And that minimum legal age is generally commensurate with being considered an “adult”, right? And adults should be accountable for their own actions, right?

Well then, I think we’ve put this one to rest, right?

#24 dogman01 on 01.22.11 at 12:10 am

I had to look up Plutonomy from previous comments; – 151 jess

New word – new framework.

Nice short video from Bill Moyers on it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSoglDcRbAg

Was the middle class boom of post 1945 an exception? A disciplined, motivated, population had the expectation of a fair “social contract”.

That exceptional period is over now and it’s back to the “Gilded Age”?

Capitalism has proven to be the best means to an end. Since when did capitalism become the end in itself.

#25 45north on 01.22.11 at 12:11 am

ExExpat: talking about the banks: Could they keep to 35 year loan party going a bit longer by not demanding CMHC backing?

A while ago I met two loan officers at the RBC, Billings Bridge Plaza, Ottawa. They were young men, enthusiastic and well dressed. Imagine them asking their manager “well why can’t we write up mortgages without CMHC?” The smile on the managers face would quickly disappear and he would say “bank policy requires the CMHC guarantee and your job and mine depend on it”.

#26 TS on 01.22.11 at 12:15 am

It should be interesting to watch as the market unravels and foreclosures increase with these screwed going in homebuyers. Will be interesting to watch what fraudulent practices come out of the woodwork over the next few years. Should keep the legal community plenty busy. I understand CMHC is gearing up the legal machine. Will be reviewing all the original qualifying documentation with a microscope as foreclosures grow. They will disqualify the insurance if proven the original documentation was falsified or negligent. Can you say due diligence? Lenders will of course join in the brokers and legal buddies to share in the shortfall pain. Responsibility shall be shared by all the responsible participants. Taxpayer will be last in line to take a hit.
I wonder if how many of those rush deals before April will turn nasty? This is going to be quite interesting. I wonder if Brokers recognized there is a risk involved? Guess some of them are going to find out. I love the risk reward system. Don’t you?

#27 young & foolish on 01.22.11 at 12:21 am

#11 T.O. Bubble Boy:

“Here’s stating the obvious: all that matters is the monthly carrying cost.”

This is true. On my street, the houses that sold a couple or so years ago are now back on the market. People don’t seem to buy like they used to (for the long run), but rather treat home ownership much like a car lease. 3 to 5 years later, they want to move. Much like a game of musical chairs, and when the music stops, somebody will be left holding the bag!

#28 Patz on 01.22.11 at 12:28 am

This whole thing has a waiting for Godot quality to it. Extend and pretend. But looks like the wait will be over soon. Sure we could have that last rush to grab the toxic 35s. But that blip up will only make the drop harder.

Surely someone in the bowels of the banks or the potty chambers of Rosedale or Shaughnessy RE offices knows that when 70% of the people have already bought there’s a very thin market of buyers. Oh yeah, I forgot, all those rich Asians. Oops, look at the time I have to be off to my Mandarin class.

#29 Dave in Victoria on 01.22.11 at 12:35 am

#1 TheBestPlaceOnEarth on 01.21.11 at 10:52 pm

You take so much yet give so little.

#30 Don on 01.22.11 at 12:37 am

InvestorsFriend (Shawn Allen) on 01.21.11 at 1:18 am

Don number 18 says:

if you want sustainable business as a realtor/broker/banker/politician/etc you may want to perform your work in the best interests of your client and not just your ego(s).

Don, your realtor/broker/ banker / politician is not your Mommy.

See, the way capitalism works is that each person looks after their own interests and then the greatest good results. It’s when people pretend to have YOUR best interest at heart that you better hold on to your wallet the tightest.
*********
Reply to shawn, the Barter system works that way, Capitalism is the Barter system corrupted by greed. You sound like a university student you believes whatever your professor spews out. Did you attend the UBC Sauder real estate school?…and if you are older…wow wisdom doesn’t necessarily come with age. You don’t have to quote books, the evidence is right in right of you… try thinking for yourself. Capitalism LOL. I don’t rely on people to check the facts for me, it isn’t Rocket Science. LOL you are too funny. “Prices can only go up” If you close your eyes and wish really hard…

To all realtors:
Read my soon to be released book on …How to be stupid for dummies. Part of your capitalism is too achieve market share, and ethics is a part of sustaining it rather than telling lies. Word travels fast.

#31 DavidL on 01.22.11 at 12:41 am

@TheBestPlaceOnEarth

I don’t think that I want to be in Richmond when the tsunami hits – either financial or literal.

#32 PeeGee on 01.22.11 at 12:43 am

Hmmm. Burnaby, BC. 57-year old bungalow sold for 725k, listed at $699.9k. Listed 2 weeks. Is this the alpha leader of the stampede or, a rogue buck?

#33 Silentblogger on 01.22.11 at 12:45 am

Tonight the National had a report on the bidding war for a crack shack…The List? 1,088,000…The final? 1,533,000. I laughed to the point of tears. Silence? Hard to maintain in this kind of insanity…snicker…tee hee…mmf…MUWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Oh shit! I think I might have just peed myself just a little bit!!!!

#34 tiger_baby on 01.22.11 at 12:49 am

I can’t help but thinking that had we invested a portion of the cheap money that’s available in the last few years into productive endeavors, we could have became a major player in several of the key fields that will ensure our economic competitiveness for decades to come.

sadly we dumped it all into frames and dry walls … such is the seduction of asset appreciation compare to the boring income stream …

#35 Dave in Victoria on 01.22.11 at 12:49 am

#17 Devil’s Advocate on 01.21.11 at 11:49 pm

You highly doubt that a realtor said prices always go up?

Wow dude. And you work in what ‘profession’? I guess we always require extreme turds like yourself in order to maintain the functioning of the standard curve. I know many great realtors, and they are nothing like you. For every Ghandi there’s a Mussolini, and no, you’re not Ghandi.

#36 Patz on 01.22.11 at 12:52 am

#1 TBPOE
Did I mention this is the best place on earth? Keep shovelling snow Canada, we’re off skiing, golfing and sailing tommorow.

Sure we are. Although I think TBPOE is just funning with us, gullible blog commentators that we are, it still bears mentioning what a miserable place Vancouver/Lower Mainland can be. Thursday was a good example. It rained slush all day. It ran down your back and into your boots. Golfers only played the 19th hole and sailboats stayed in their slips. (But of course sailors in Vancouver only take their boats out once a year anyway, so nothing different there.)

The joys of Vancouver let me count the ways: bad traffic, worse architecture, a lock on smugness (that’s the one thing that makes me think TBPOE is for real) inflated prices of everything not just housing–gas is more expensive here than anywhere that’s not Nunavut.

In short, Vancouver would be a much nicer place to live if people here would just get over it a little.

#37 $froma$ia on 01.22.11 at 12:53 am

Don’t you just love the idea of investing in debt leveraged assets (Real Estate).

It’s all about how much you can borrow.

Debt leveraged assets are all about debt when theres barely 10% down so why bother risking your hard earned money?

$$$

#38 Best place on meth on 01.22.11 at 12:53 am

#1

Wonderful satire, sir!

I busted a gut laughing.

#39 squidly77 on 01.22.11 at 12:56 am

Brand new Calgary 1 Bedroom condos – $169,000
Brand new Calgary 2 Bedroom condos – $199,000

The realtor blogs here still deny the crash !

#40 Angela on 01.22.11 at 1:15 am

@sutluc – “Bullshit. I also live around this rainy hellhole.”

LOL! My thoughts exactly.

#41 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 1:22 am

#35 Dave in Victoria on 01.22.11 at 12:49 am

Clearly your narrow mind has precluded you from understanding the drift of my critique. I don’t for a minute doubt that a REALTOR® told him “prices always go up”. What I was alluding is that I doubt he is such a dumb ass that he actually made his purchase decision on the advice of his poor selection of a REALTOR® alone and if so he should be accountable for his actions on the basis of that alone not to mention that his ex clearly must have left him because that “potential” she saw in him became evidently nonexistent.

Mussolini / Gandhi… I’d actually take Mussolini every time… Gandhi was a highly overrated do nothing. Mussolini kicked ass… maybe not in ways we’d all agree. But we should all co-operate and all be given As right?

It’s good to trust others but, not to do so is much better. – Benito Mussolini

#42 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 01.22.11 at 1:24 am

30 Don – I went back and re-read Shawns and your posts. To me you are saying very much the same thing. Thinking for yourself doesnt mean you shouldnt read books or believe your prof.

I like most of Shawns posts. I think its Shawn people have a problem with…..

#43 Mark on 01.22.11 at 1:32 am

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Money/1239849460/ID=1758092890

There’s that Vancouver crack shack story.

#44 Carlyle on 01.22.11 at 1:41 am

I actually asked the buyers if they had heard of the mortgage rule changes while we did the signing, they had not …

I suspect in my case the massive interest had more to do with a lack of inventory … My place was the only one in Milton under 325 k in the starter home category that was listed … And we had all the bells and whistles … Hardwood everything, stainless steel appliances, front loader w/d. Thankfully those bells and whistles were paid for by the builder … We originally bought in Jan 2009 when buyers were still twitchy over armegeddon in the us real estate market thinking it was going to happen here so our builder threw in 15k in upgrades.

I do think these mortgage rule changes will push demand forward but I also think it will push listings forward too …. Not sure what it will all mean but glad as hell I sold ahead of the listing wave while inventory was low.

#45 BC Bring Cash on 01.22.11 at 1:46 am

#1 TheBestPlaceOnEarth
Sounds like you are a true believer in Gordo. I’m stuck here in the Broke- Okanagan. The only way I will move further to the west towards your Paradise is in a wooden box. This is as far west as I’m going to to go. Sick of being fleeced in BC.

#46 Devil's Advocate is an Asshat on 01.22.11 at 1:50 am

Just sayin’

That is all

#47 Carlyle on 01.22.11 at 1:52 am

Oh and my house was not dreary! Actually really nice thanks to all the upgrades.

Hope I can rent as nice … Condos in downtown Toronto look like they will cost almost as much to rent as our mortgage and property tax payment was — 1500/mth. I will save though about 700 a mth between gas savings and not having to take the 407 toll highway anymore. Plus another couple hundred saved on utilities …

And will free up lots of cash flow by paying off most of my debt … Not by the creation of lower interest debt as tapping into equity would have done, but by paying my debt with liquid equity from the sale of the home.

I think I’m starting to get it …

Any house in Milton is dreary. — Garth

#48 pablo on 01.22.11 at 1:57 am

Could it trick enough comatose young couples into advancing their buying decisions so that April becomes the cruelest month? God I hope so, my retirement is counting on this. Good on ya Carlyle.

#49 Alberta Ed on 01.22.11 at 2:01 am

Somebody should tell Amanda, the dumb biz b*tch on CBC. But she’s too drunk on RE Kool-Aid, judging from her Jan. 21 broadcast.

#50 kitchener1 on 01.22.11 at 2:02 am

#7 Devils Advocate

We will see, like i said, I will talk to my contacts this weekend and will report back what they tell me, if you are indeed correct then I will state it as such.

im not out to give bad info, just saying that its a pretty bold statement to make given that we are only 5 days into a rule change.

So far in the GTA, sales volume is down 11% for the first half of Jan, if by the 30th that number is above last years, you will indeed be correct, if not then your just blowing smoke.

Here my point of view, CMHC announcement comes out monday, people on the fence would need to get pre approved and those people listing would need to talk to an agent, prepare their house etc.. 5 days does not a trend make.

And dude, if there is a sales rush, then watch out come June and July– Novemeber cause it will be much worse then anybody thought.

#51 Jsan on 01.22.11 at 2:21 am

“#33 Silentblogger on 01.22.11 at 12:45 am

Tonight the National had a report on the bidding war for a crack shack…The List? 1,088,000…The final? 1,533,000. I laughed to the point of tears. Silence? Hard to maintain in this kind of insanity…snicker…tee hee…mmf…MUWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Oh shit! I think I might have just peed myself just a little bit!!!!”

==================================

That’s fantastic, let the madness continue. Flaherty and Carneys hair must falling out when they continue to see this. As the insanity continues and Canadian personal debt continues it’s climb to the stratosphere, they will have absolutely no choice but to clamp down even harder, next time probably with higher interest rates and larger deposits required.

This is not about them trying to stop a housing bubble, it’s about trying to contain what is runaway personal debt. The kind of debt that will ultimately destroy an economy. They know it, and every other group that has been screaming warnings about this over the last couple of months know it.

#52 Captain Jack on 01.22.11 at 2:31 am

@DA
you need some humility kicked into you…just wait because kharma sucks.

#53 The Other Dave on 01.22.11 at 2:37 am

I remember in 1997 if you got a 25year amort you were a loser.

#54 Don on 01.22.11 at 2:42 am

#16 Hoof-Hearted: as much as I’m also concerned about the state of the equity market, trying to pass off a five-year-old market prediction as something fresh and useful is kinda stupid.

#55 BigAl (Original) on 01.22.11 at 2:46 am

I chose to live in Milton mainly for location because it opens up my job/business market like no other place in the GTA. Go look at exactly where Milton is on a map. It is smack-dab in the centre of the entire west GTA circle as follows.

Within driving distance to:
-Kitchener/Waterloo/Cambridge – Population 425,000
-Guelph – Population 115,000
-Hamilton – Population 500,000
-Burlington – Population 165,000
-Oakville – Population 165,000
-Mississauga – Population 700,000
-Brampton – Population 450,000
-Toronto – Population 2,500,000
And, Milton – Population – 70,000

Add, 401, 410/403/QEW, 407 all tied to the airport and on direct routes to New York State and Michigan border crossings.
Both Hamilton and Pearson Airports.
After Toronto, lowest property taxes in the GTA.
Milton GO terminal with full train/bus.

I’m not commenting (much) on house prices here. But long-term (10-20 year growth) Milton seemed to me the best bet in the GTA, when compared to the North (Aurora/Newmarket/Barrie), East (Pickering/Ajax/Whitby/Oshawa), and even its own neighbouring west suburbs (Brampton to Hamilton).

Unless, of course, armageddon really does set in and we all have to ditch cars, gas is $50/Litre, and we go back to horse and buggy.

I’ll put my money on Milton being the next Mississauga – not the next Stockton, California.

#56 ExExpat on 01.22.11 at 2:58 am

45north: “bank policy requires the CMHC guarantee and your job and mine depend on it”.

No disrespect to the finely dressed young bankers or their manager, my question is, could or might the bankers keep originating loans without insurance? The risk to the Canadian banking system would be obvious, as would the motivation for the banks to find a way to keep business coming in when the government is throwing cold water on the market. If buyers and the government can deny there is a bubble, why not the banks?

#57 nonplused on 01.22.11 at 3:02 am

No comment on Garth’s post today except “yep”.

Did come across this blast from the past so I thought I’d fire it in to get Garth’s blood boiling again:

“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. … This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property
rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.”
– Alan Greenspan

“We have at this particular stage a fiat money which is essentially money printed by a government and it’s usually a central bank which is authorized to do so. Some mechanism has got to be in place that restricts the amount of money which is produced, either a gold standard or a currency board, because unless you do that all of history suggest that inflation will take hold with very deleterious effects on economic activity… There are numbers of us, myself included, who strongly believe that we did very well in the 1870 to 1914 period with an international gold standard.”
– Alan Greenspan

“Would it have been a question at least open in 1981, as you put it? And the answer is yes.
Remember, the gold price was $800 an ounce. We were dealing with extraordinary imbalances, interest rates were up sharply, the system looked to be highly unstable ¬ and we needed to do something.
Now, we did something. The United States ¬ Paul Volcker, as you may recall, in 1979 came into office and put a very severe clamp on the expansion of credit, and that led to a long sequence of events here, which we are benefiting from up to this date.
So I think central banking, I believe, has learned the dangers of fiat money, and I think, as a consequence of that, we’ve behaved as though there are, indeed, real reserves underneath the system.”
– Alan Greenspan

Not sure what he meant by acting as if there were “real reserves underneath the system.” I think he must have meant that for a fiat currency to work, you have to act as if there is something of real value backing the currency, and you do this by keeping the money supply “scarce”. Print as much of it as people need, but no more, and it will have value. Print as much as people want, and it won’t.

More at today at jsmineset.com under “Trader Dan”.

#58 kansai_92 on 01.22.11 at 3:20 am

Perhaps the next 2 months will materialize into
the “Blow off” phase to complete the last portion
of the bubble cycle.

#59 nonplused on 01.22.11 at 3:20 am

On the inflation front, I made a mental note today, because the truck had gone no where else in the last few weeks, that the cost of fuel to get me to Sunshine and back(ski resort) is now the same as the cost of the lift ticket (with a discount card). When spread over all 5 family members, it’s only a $10 surtax on a $60 lift ticket, but it adds up.

At Louise you only pay $50 a day, but you also run the rig an extra 1/2 hour in both directions.

Snow was Beyond the Thunderdome though, finally. And no crowds due to the recent argument between the owners and the ski patrol.

My point being that fuel is starting to impact lifestyle. Sure, if the whole family is going, it seems a reasonable surcharge. But if I go alone, it doubles the lift ticket price.

#60 Gord In Vancouver on 01.22.11 at 3:21 am

Nice post, Garth.

I agree with those who feel that another “urgency to buy Canadian real estate deadline” will be created by F when home sales/prices dip.

I predict that the next rush will be to buy homes before the maximum amortization period is reduced from 30 to 25 years and minimum down payment is raised from 5% to 10%.

#61 Jeff Smith on 01.22.11 at 3:49 am

>#9 Sad on 01.21.11 at 11:18 pm
>If only one could turn back time. It’s to late for me as
>my life has been turned into ruin. A realtor told me
>prices always go up and never fear since at anytime I
>could sell for a profit. I bought in the spring in 2008 and
>not even three years later I lost my wife , children and
> my house which was called home. These realtors are
>true garbage and so are those mortgage brokers who
>commit fraud to get you into a house you could never
>afford. If only I have found Garth before my dream of
>owning a home turned into a nightmare.

Sorry to hear that. I bet the wife was the one who kept pushing you to buy the real estate. Hope you can pull through and rise again.

#62 Jeff Smith on 01.22.11 at 3:51 am

>#10 ExExpat on 01.21.11 at 11:18 pm
>Just a thought, what if bankers also drink the Kool-aid
>and believe house prices will keep rising? Could they
>keep to 35 year loan party going a bit longer by not
>demanding CMHC backing? Has to be at least one bank
>out there greedy or foolish enough to try this.

Actually you will be surprised how many people who have title and sit in important office are totally clueless and just plain stupid. They believe whatever is fed to them from above.

#63 Do the Math on 01.22.11 at 3:54 am

Fellow Blog Dogs in the Victoria area,

Please pass this offer on to any of your friends (depending how much you really like them), colleagues, or acquaintances who you have tried to warn about the pending situation but in return have laughed at, ridiculed, and probably spoken quite ill of you behind your back for even thinking that real estate prices could ever drop.

I’ve procrastinated long enough and the house is going on the market… the caveat being that we sign a 1 yr lease to rent back the house. I know we’ve missed the opportunity to cash in at the top and the rent back agreement will definitely thin out our list of potential buyers but one can always hope there is at least one greater fool out there. No possibility of moving right now so the rent back clause is the only thing that will work.

Back to my pitch…please tell them that this is their final chance to get in while the getting is good. Please tell them that what is even better is that they can buy into this market, not have to make a single mortgage payment on the house and will be building their equity monthly without ever having to spend a single penny on the mortgage.

I’m thinking the listing will be something like this…

“Exceptional Investment Opportunity. Seller will rent back house and rent will cover the mortgage! Do not let this opportunity pass you by.

$480,000
½ Duplex (built in 97, 1700 sqft, close to downtown Vic, 3 beds, 2 ½ baths)

Down Payment – $24,000
$456,000 @ 3.69%, 35 yr amortization = $1927.64 / month

Here’s the best part… seller will rent back the house for $2000.00 / month. That’s higher than most rental rates for homes of similar size in this area. Talk about an absolutely great opportunity to get into the market and have someone else pay off your mortgage for you! Think about it, you do absolutely nothing except sit back, watch the mortgage get paid down and your equity go up without spending a single cent of your own income on the mortgage as the seller is paying it for you!”

One can only hope this last minute effort works… going to interview a couple realtors tomorrow to try to get this going… wish me luck.

#64 TheBestPlaceOnEarth on 01.22.11 at 4:01 am

BOOYAH!!!!! Yup naysayers like pro basement suite renter Junius throw around bogus figures and wishful thinking. Thanks for posting another example of truth. Goin higher everday folks. Do your own due diligence and jump aboard this rocket ship. Junius just buy already
“Hmmm. Burnaby, BC. 57-year old bungalow sold for 725k, listed at $699.9k. Listed 2 weeks. Is this the alpha leader of the stampede or, a rogue buck?”

#65 Burnt Norton on 01.22.11 at 4:01 am

#9 Sad on 01.21.11 at 11:18 pm

#22 Devil’s Advocate on 01.21.11 at 11:54

Thanks for confirming my suspicion that realtors and mortgage brokers genuinely believe that they are not responsible for providing clients with some kind of honest counselling around the implications of what would probably be the biggest financial decision of the client’s life.

This is the exact opposite of professionalism. Hucksters and con men. For shame.

I can only count my lucky stars that I came up with the following comment to my wife before buying property a couple of years ago: “Babe, we have to realize that the realtors, mortgage brokers and bankers are not our financial advisors. They may be friendly but they are not our friends”.

#66 Jeff Smith on 01.22.11 at 4:02 am

>#20 Hoof – Hearted on 01.21.11 at 11:51 pm
>The financial trap facing the U.S., China
>from a younger starting point. And it has less
>infrastructure in place to support that aging population
>than the United States does. China’s current cash flow
>may represent a one-shot opportunity to prepare for
>the aging of that society.

You know what the Chinese government might do? They will pass a law saying that every woman now must bear 2 child, or else! Think they can’t or not willing to do it? They successfully did the opposite with “Have exactly one child Or else!”. They aren’t classified as Authoritarianism/dictatorial for no reason.

#67 Burnt Norton on 01.22.11 at 4:04 am

“before buying”, that is to say, before walking away from countless bidding wars.

#68 realpaul on 01.22.11 at 4:05 am

A case that was reported tonight on the CBC involved someone I know….and here’s the skinny.

A deplapitated house on a corner lot on Vancouvers west side ( I mean boarded up and unlivable) was listed for $1, 030,000.00 . The first open house was attended by over 200 persons ( all from a certain ethnic group (100%) that we’re been asked not to name…all from a certain country that we’ve been asked not to mention for the sake of political correctness and the fact that the truth may stir the pot in the local market because people will realise that houses are being bought in large numbers by non citizens).

The agent got over 30 offers on the spot and abidding war ( also on the spot) took the price up to $1, 600,000.00 million cash….no subjects.

This is this week. Large numbers of non citizens from a country we can’t mention because we’re called rascist if we do……. No…the real estate stock is not being affected by non citizens bringing in untaxed dollars and displacing locals due to the very uneven playing field…. of course not.

#69 Deadmonton Alberta on 01.22.11 at 4:05 am

I’m knew from reading this blog and opening my eyes around me that our real estate market in Edmonton was going to go through a huge, but long and painful correction. It looks like it’s sinking much faster than I had imagined!
Housing and Condo prices in Edmonton have started to g well inot the early 2006 prices. Calgary has some new condo developments going into the 2005 price levels

#70 Music will stop on 01.22.11 at 4:28 am

I find mortgage brokers provide advice on mortgage products, interest rate, amortization and term. If they can help prepare you for increasing interest rates, even better. Realtors are (should be) more informed about the RE market and be more involved in providing advice/opinions. Are home appraisers to be shunned for knowing the purchase price and “getting” the appraisal in at least sale price?

2008 collapse was a surprise to me because I only read the new paper. Seems like a lot of other Canadians will be surprised by the .ca version. The writing is on the wall if you want to find it

#71 HADTOMOVETOTHEARCTIC on 01.22.11 at 4:29 am

Garth,
Almost three years ago my then boyfriend now husband and I were pre-approved for $460,000.00. Shockingly since back then I was a nanny barely scraping by at $14.00 an hour, minimal savings and bad credit. The now husband had his you know what together and is practical and smart about money, 30 grand saved in the bank at the time, no debt and working 3 jobs to make more.
I jumped right on the HGTV porn loving, Sandra Rinomato fan club. I couldn’t wait to loose my property virginity. I gyrated in anticipation of an acre for the dog, nice kitchen or something Daddy could help us reno and somewhere between Roberts Creek to Halfmoon Bay, as long as it was on the Sunshine Coast. We scheduled open houses, looked at houses, and searched realtor.ca for hours in search of our entitled home. I even became addicted to house hunters and house hunters international. I envisioned us having the lifestyle all my friends seemed to have. Barbequing on a Weber grill, lounging on the new ginger jar patio furniture and a nice 52 inch TV for the next property virgins marathon. It’s scary how close we came to being trapped in a damn 5 percent down 35 year deal, almost sold our souls, or shall I say mine(Over and over again the husband said even though the bank says yes we really can’t afford a house) I wanted what I felt I was entitled to. I grew up on the North Shore in Vancouver, we always had nice things and all my friends were doing it, and even my mortgage broker friend had me convinced with her constant facebook updates.
And then the husband had a job offer, a professional job. No more UVIC bartending, no more teaching economics, no more odd jobs. It changed EVERYTHING. We now live in the Arctic in Cambridge Bay Nunavut. No more HGTV porn lovin’ for me. No House, BBQ, Furniture, Electronics or that acre backyard for Ralph to run around. Friends thought we were crazy, and still do. They keep telling me time is running out. A friend just bought a place in North Van, in Raven Woods out Deep Cove way….$370,000. For a one bedroom and den. Gross.
I stumbled upon your blog one day and I finally got it. The husband thanks you. I keep spreading the gospel as best I can, but people just don’t get it. We’ll just hang tight up here in the miserable cold making money and saving it, while the Lower Methland slowly but surely falls apart.

#72 confused and a little crazed on 01.22.11 at 4:59 am

#9 Sorry to hear that Sad.

but we all make mistakes…all u can do is pick yourself up…dust off and walk forward again

#33 Silentblogger,
i think it was from $1088,000 to $1,303,000…or we can be talking about a different house from the news.

you can rent anywhere…have all your expenses paid off yearly and stiill have enough to invest to get a 4-6 % return …essentially why work when you have that kind of money.

oh well…i kinda just given up. I look at some condos and the manintenance fees are more than half my rent. if you add in utilities / insurance and tax it would be very close. it would also be a farther to commute

just so know #9 Sad i am the only family member who rents…so u can imagine the press …it’s not that bad . but it’s there

#73 Increasing that 1% on 01.22.11 at 5:24 am

The average joes I know in Brampton are still not mentioning any problems with real estate. The issues must be being kept fairly quiet.

Downtown TO prices -rentals, not budging, and they’re already reedikalus. Brokers with attitude, like the IDGAS kind of ‘tude. Go half hour to hour away and get 4x the space, sfh, yard, own garage…same price. Yes, but then you don’t get blah, blah, blah. Oh, but if you are here you get blah, blah, blah.
Certain pockets may not go down much over the time that those who are waiting, wait. May still go up first before down, or when they go down, maybe not so much that’d be worth it, IDK, who knowwzz

#74 Vik on 01.22.11 at 5:34 am

One house 2 listings
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10172925&PidKey=-1624853496

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10261527&PidKey=576358399

Whoops ! thats a $40k haircut

#75 Utopia on 01.22.11 at 7:12 am

#16 Hoof – Hearted

“3 signs that a stock crash is coming”
————————————————————

Just a minor objection Hoof-Hearted. Your article link is dated November 2006. How does that apply five years later in January 2011?

#76 Gerry B on 01.22.11 at 7:15 am

Here in bubbly Singapore, new anti-speculation measures – including a 16% “stamp duty” on sales within one year of purchase, declining over 4 yrs – were announced on the evening of 13 January and took effect the following day. This prevented sales from getting pulled forward to avoid the measures. Perhaps harsh immediate measures like this are only possible in a country where the ruling party is so dominant they needn’t worry about getting voted out!

#77 Mikey the Realtor on 01.22.11 at 9:30 am

F is a genius, this man knows how to manipulate the masses one month at a time, once March 18th comes and goes sales might drop again, then comes C, with a reduction or hold on rates as the global market sucks and Canada is drowning. As I said before, until rates rise to the point of at least 5% for a one year and variable you can forget a reduction in prices, the low rates are the key here folks and nothing else, debt matters zero as there is always bankruptcy as declared by even some of the pups and poodles.

#78 Moneta on 01.22.11 at 9:42 am

Riddle me this?
How will the cons win a majority with a tanking housing market.
——-
1. Population is ageing so getting more conservative. 80% of wealth is owned by 55+, influential group of voters.

2. Top 10% in net worth wants to keep what it has and deflation sounds better than inflation, so they’ll vote for those that have policies that seem to generate deflation… tax cuts, austerity, etc.

3. The bottom 90% has been brainwashed into thinking they could make it to the top 10% if they work a little harder. Since most people are deluded and believe they’ll make it, they don’t want the rules to change for the top 10%… protecting their rights for when they get there.

4. Some of the 90% are not deluded, they’re pissed. They want everything to be cut from those who have more than them and cons offer this in their mandate.

5. Most people think everyone can just wake up one morning, snap their fingers and pull themselves by their bootstraps so they won’t blame the bankers, they’ll blame the greater fools for their spendthrift ways. And the cons like to punish.

6. Have you seen the candidate for the libs?

#79 Mikey the Realtor on 01.22.11 at 9:55 am

#9 Sad

What kind of gun was put to your head? as I’m currently looking for one as influential to use on my clients. The point sad is that you forgot to do your due diligence and that includes doing some basic grade one math and now you blame everyone else around you. Although, this whole thing sounds very amateur and suspicious.

#80 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 9:58 am

#52 Captain Jack on 01.22.11 at 2:31 am
@ DA
you need some humility kicked into you… just wait because kharma sucks.

Now there is an intelligent retort. Where is that sarcasm font.

#65 Burnt Norton on 01.22.11 at 4:01 am
#9 Sad on 01.21.11 at 11:18 pm

#22 Devil’s Advocate on 01.21.11 at 11:54

Thanks for confirming my suspicion that realtors and mortgage brokers genuinely believe that they are not responsible for providing clients with some kind of honest counselling around the implications of what would probably be the biggest financial decision of the client’s life.

This is the exact opposite of professionalism. Hucksters and con men. For shame.

I can only count my lucky stars that I came up with the following comment to my wife before buying property a couple of years ago: “Babe, we have to realize that the realtors, mortgage brokers and bankers are not our financial advisors. They may be friendly but they are not our friends”.

>It’s good to trust others but, not to do so is much better. – Benito Mussolini

You must learn the skill of being able to read people. Of all the times I have been taken advantage of or lied to, in retrospect, I recall a tiny voice inside me trying to warn me so. Learn to trust your gut instinct, more often than not it will guide you right. We are animals just like all others and our instincts no less tools of survival. It’s a game Norton. Play the game with the tools you’ve been given. Some are on your side, part of your pack, herd, or tribe, others are not.

Sorry, that’s just the way it is. Why do you think Garth has a bunker and Hummer with a gun rack. ;-)

#81 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 10:04 am

#65 Burnt Norton on 01.22.11 at 4:01 am

By far most people in any vocation are trustworthy. It’s that odd bad apple thrown in here and there you have to be on the lookout for. You do look it over if but with a passing glance before you take a bite of your food don’t you? Then don’t you think before making likely the largest personal financial decision of your life you should at least check things out first. At least choose your advisors based on something more than the kind of car he drives?

Geesh… take some responsibility man.

#82 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 10:17 am

#65 Burnt Norton on 01.22.11 at 4:01 am

Sorry, but I’ve got a REAL problem with people like you who paint a whole group with the same brush based on a bad experience you had because you were so gullible a fool as to allow yourself to fall prey to the wrong advisor.

If your advisor broke the law or their associations code of ethics there are serious ramifications that will be bestowed upon them, but not if you don’t file a complaint. Or was it just that you made a foolish decision which ultimately only you can be held accountable for.

#83 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 10:28 am

Seems to me that the predominant Canadian male personality is that of one who has not yet been weaned of their mother’s breast.

“The overly indulged child may resist growing up and try to return to that state of dependency through crying, acting helpless, demanding satisfaction, and being “needy.””

Grow a set boys, become men.

#84 Carlyle on 01.22.11 at 10:28 am

Another antedoctal experience: Having sold my house I contacted a realtor that specializes in renting downtown Toronto condos where we plan to move in April.

She stated that we would be able to see 12 condo units (Harbourfront area) in one day, most of them empty and brand new (investor properties). She also stated we would have to be very careful because many of these properties have been bought with the idea of flipping — don’t want to get into a place and get kicked out a year later!

Really hoping I can find something nice in the core.

You cannot be evicted unless a new buyer proves they will occupy the unit themselves. — Garth

#85 JC on 01.22.11 at 10:33 am

There was recently an article in the G&M about the disappearance of a realtor and his client.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/police-searching-for-missing-toronto-area-realtor-and-client/article1879670/

Its telling to note the 2nd last sentence in the article. Those of us in the “community” are well aware of this phenomena as whispers abound about how XYZ official from the PRK embezzled XYZ amounts of RMB (especially over the last 2 years) and are looking for the most convenient outlets to launder it.

It seems like real estate (particularily on the West coast) would be a likely vehicle since as everyone knows “it always goes up” LOL!

#86 Kaganovich on 01.22.11 at 10:47 am

Devil’s Advocate

You said,

“Mussolini / Gandhi… I’d actually take Mussolini every time… Gandhi was a highly overrated do nothing. Mussolini kicked ass… maybe not in ways we’d all agree. But we should all co-operate and all be given As right?”

Wow…quite a choice…well, he did get the trains to run on time, right?

Your personality most likely strikes an uncanny resemblance with the fascist dictator. Here is a recent historian’s recounting of Mussolini and mistress’s deservedly brutal fate:

“The pair were picked up by partisans on 27 April 1945 in a column of cars, trucks and armoured vehicles full of German troops and Italian Fascists on its way to Italy’s northern border, near Lake Como. An armed detachment led by the communist partisan ‘Colonel Valerio’, who had spent five years in prison in the 1930s for anti-Fascist activities, put them up against a wall and shot them with a sub-machine gun in an act of ‘Italian people’s justice’. After executing fifteen more prisoners in the small town of Dongo, Valerio and his squad took all the bodies to Milan, where they dumped them on the Piazzale Loreto. A crowd gathered and desecrated the corpses in every possible way, spitting and urinating on them and shouting insults. Eventually Mussolini, and Petacci abd some of the others were hung upside-down from the gantry of a petrol station, where they were exposed to further insults” (Evans, 2009).

Perhaps the Italians in Milan didn’t have the degree of refinement that you possess to appreciate how valuable Mussolini’s political contribution was to their country. Shortly after his execution, a saying was coined something to the effect of “Those who know everything hang from lampposts”. Mussolini was definitely instrumental in kicking getting the European’s collective ass kicked. It’s hard to believe he wasn’t afforded one iota of gratitude, eh?

http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://jcrakow.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/mussolini.jpg&imgrefurl=http://jcrakow.com/2009/07/26/mussolinis-ghost/&usg=__Z2098SibDMJH0g6DBUN_rpzi8sw=&h=284&w=400&sz=37&hl=en&start=24&zoom=1&tbnid=u9OjlrCO4lpLkM:&tbnh=130&tbnw=176&ei=yeM6TbHALcqdgQeIn_n6CA&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmussolini%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26sa%3DX%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26biw%3D1276%26bih%3D584%26tbs%3Disch:10%2C399&um=1&itbs=1&iact=hc&vpx=402&vpy=286&dur=134&hovh=189&hovw=267&tx=199&ty=137&oei=v-M6TZepFNLUgAekubC7CA&esq=2&page=2&ndsp=22&ved=1t:429,r:9,s:24&biw=1276&bih=584

He didn’t even get an A, despite his knowing everything.

Shame, that.

#87 boomer62 on 01.22.11 at 10:50 am

#55 BigAl (Original) on 01.22.11 at 2:46 am

said,
“I’ll put my money on Milton being the next Mississauga”.

….don’t hold your breath.

#67 Burnt Norton on 01.22.11 at 4:04 am

on bidding wars….

War (bidding or otherwise) does not determine who is right – only who is left.

#71 HADTOMOVETOTHEARCTIC on 01.22.11 at 4:29 am

said,
“We now live in the Arctic in Cambridge Bay Nunavut.”

Question: Does CMHC insure igloos?

#88 LuckyRenter on 01.22.11 at 10:59 am

This morning I found mortgage broker’s flyer in front of my apartment door, starting with title “RENT NOTICE” and here goes the liar loan poem:

Rent money is money wasted every month.

Every time you pay rent, you are actually paying somebody else’s mortgage.

You work hard for your money, so why waste your money on rent.

I will find you a house or condo that will suit your budget.

“Many” properties to choose from.

BUY A HOUSE WITH ZERO DOWN PAYMENT

http://www.zerodownpaymentguy.com/

How is this going to end well??

#89 Nuke on 01.22.11 at 11:02 am

I am looking for a 3 bedroom house in downtown Toronto, 5 minutes from Bay Street and across from the Art Gallery on a quiet street. Am willing to go as high as $160,000 -$170,000 (current rent divided by 9%) but there are none listed. Until prices are in that range, the bubble will continue.

Also, I remember if you were really house crazy and you wanted to live beyond your means, you would go with only 20% down and a 25 amortization. Affordability was tied to the price of the home, not how you financed it. Where are all those charts showing how much interest you paid as you went out further than 15 years. All that seems to have completely disappeared from bank and mortgage sites.

#90 Live Within Your Means on 01.22.11 at 11:08 am

#43 Mark on 01.22.11 at 1:32 am
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Money/1239849460/ID=1758092890

There’s that Vancouver crack shack story.

………………

And did you notice that the same RE guy was hired by a lady across the street when she saw what that shack went for. She made $300K after owning it for 2 mos.

#91 Daisy Mae on 01.22.11 at 11:10 am

You send me searching for my dictionary almost every day! LOL For anyone who wants to know….

bucolic adj. pertaining to or characteristic of shepherds or herdsmen; pastoral; rustic.”

In other words, rural property.

#92 Live Within Your Means on 01.22.11 at 11:11 am

#49 Alberta Ed on 01.22.11 at 2:01 am
Somebody should tell Amanda, the dumb biz b*tch on CBC. But she’s too drunk on RE Kool-Aid, judging from her Jan. 21 broadcast.

………….

I dislike both Amanda and Kevin, but I don’t think you need to call her a b*tch.

Agreed. — Garth

#93 Mark on 01.22.11 at 11:18 am

@ #79 Live Within Your Means

Yep, ridiculous. If that’s not a sign the top is near, I don’t know what is.

#94 T.O. Bubble Boy on 01.22.11 at 11:28 am

#55 BigAl (Original)

I’ll put my money on Milton being the next Mississauga – not the next Stockton, California.

You actually want Milton to become filled with warehouse/distribution buildings, and then build burbs upon burbs without any sort of plan for 30-40 years to become the ultimate sprawling “city without a city”?

#95 Min in Mission on 01.22.11 at 11:34 am

Utopia on 01.22.11 at 7:12 am

#16 Hoof – Hearted

“3 signs that a stock crash is coming”
————————————————————

Just a minor objection Hoof-Hearted. Your article link is dated November 2006. How does that apply five years later in January 2011?

Yeah, caught that myself, but, not until I was about 1/2 way through.

#96 Gord In Vancouver on 01.22.11 at 11:43 am

#68 realpaul

You don’t have to be a genius to figure out what you’re trying to state.

Let’s not forget that Canada and USA were eventually able to get “secret” offshore account information from Switzerland. It’ll be much easier for China to get this information (and possibly more) when their economy slows down as they can threaten to withdraw trade from those who don’t do what they say.

#97 T.O. Bubble Boy on 01.22.11 at 11:58 am

@ #88 LuckyRenter:

That zerodownpaymentguy.com site is so full of RE myths/propaganda, it almost seems like a joke! Of course that guy is in Brampton, home of the foreclosure.

Some “interesting” notes from his FAQs:

When you default on your mortgage, you will have the option to sell your house at a profit ( prices go up about 10% yearly ) and keep what’s left over. All the equity you built on the property is money you get to keep.

>> really? that’s amazing! I go bankrupt, but make a profit! If houses always go up 10% a year, there obviously is zero risk to buying with no down payment!

It is by far better to buy a house today with Zero Downpayment than to wait until you can save for a downpayment.

It takes a long time for most people to save 5% or more, by that time prices have gone up about 10% . A $200,000 house today will likely cost $220,000 the following year and the interest rate may not be as low as today’s rate.

So the longer you wait, the more you will pay for the house and the rate. As well, if you pay $1,000 on rent every month, you will again waste $12,000 a year.

>> Oh! I didn’t realise that $1,000 rent per month was a waste, but paying $2,000 per month for a giant mortgage (with a small percentage going to principal) was a great investment! I also didn’t realise that houses will keep going up by 10% per year even when interest rates rise! I would be double-smart buying now with no down payment because I’ll make $20,000 in 1 year, and I’ll get a great low interest rate that can never go up!

#98 Burnt Norton on 01.22.11 at 11:58 am

DA, I submit that the reason my post bothers you (as you state) above, is that it strikes a chord.

The problem is, buddy, if a client goes to a professional, there is almost always a discrepancy in specialized knowledge and skill. Of course the client is ultimately responsible for signing on the dotted line. The point is, if the hired professional’s little voice is saying to himself “wow if I were this guy I would NOT be signing that paper” he / she has an professional / ethical obligation to fill in for the client’s absent little voice.

True professionals do not take advantage of disadvantaged clients and then blame the clients for being ignorant just because the client comes to the professional for help in the first place. Professional help, DA, it’s about more that handing out fact sheets and touring people aroun town in a leased BMW.

#99 ritenote on 01.22.11 at 12:00 pm

Any house in Milton is dreary. — Garth
——————————
Amen. – Ritenote

#100 Alister on 01.22.11 at 12:04 pm

#91 – you said – And did you notice that the same RE guy was hired by a lady across the street when she saw what that shack went for. She made $300K after owning it for 2 mos.

In the stock market, we call those kinds of moves “blow off tops”, and that means DANGER, GET OUT NOW.

#101 Amarillo on 01.22.11 at 12:08 pm

Listening to BestPlace’s blatherings reminds me of a good west coast story. We live in Alberta and were visiting my wife’s relatives on the island.

It was a beautiful spring morning and after church, all the male relatives gathered around as we were drinking coffee in the foyer.

One of the guys said, “So, how do you like it here?” There was an expectant hush as everyone listeded for me to gush on about how beautiful the place was.

“It’s ok”, I said, taking a sip of my coffee. Faces darkened and one guy coughed. “OK?!!”, one guy roared.

“Yeah, ok”, I replied taking another sip of my coffee. “Every place on earth has its own natural beauty and this place is no exception.”

#102 Ronaldo on 01.22.11 at 12:09 pm

From Februay 2008…..snippets from the past…interesting read….

http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908

#103 HouseBuster on 01.22.11 at 12:17 pm

The same thing that happened in the US will happen here. Wait until those 0-40 and 5-35 mortgages have to be reset. GTFO while you still can.

#104 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 12:18 pm

#86 Kaganovich on 01.22.11 at 10:47 am

I guess you could take the two examples to their extreme. Basically what I was driving as it the pissy, whinny, mommas boy personality Canadian men have on the international stage and reaffirmed on these blogs. What a bunch of whinning whimps Canadian men are. Really think about it; compare us against the reset of the world. A reputation is earned for a reason.

I’d say Australians are about as close our brothers as any and at least they have balls.

Peace love and happiness man ;-)

We could use a little attitude. I’m surprised all our women haven’t packed up and moved south.

Man up and buy your woman a cave man.

Geesh look at the Pilsbury Doughboy we elected to run this country along with that side kick of his off the Lucky Charms box to manage our finances. Both fresh off the high school debating team.

This is a pretty damned great country with some hot women ;-) and great resources being run by a bunch of prissy geeks. Get off your asses and take countrol of your destiny. You have liberty to do so but if you don’t excercise it you will soon lose it.

So ya, when it comes to Gandhi or Mussolini… I do think Canadian men could use a little more Mussolini. GET IT NOW Kaganovich?

#105 Utopia on 01.22.11 at 12:22 pm

#53 The Other Dave

“I remember in 1997 if you got a 25 year amort you were a loser”

————————————————————

You said it Dave! Gee, it was not that long ago either. In fact, before this near zero interest environment it was just common sense to choose the lowest amortization period you could afford. Most people took that route. Paid off houses in 15 or 20 years maximum.

Why? So we could be debt free sooner. Mortgage burnings were a big event. The holy grail of home ownership was also that moment in life when you finally got to tell the bank to take a hike and you could then look forward to your really big plans. Big party usually. I went to more than a few.

It’s good you remember it too Dave. Amazing how the whole mindset has changed so dramatically in little more than a decade.

There really was a time when prudence in household budgets was more than just a buzzword. It is all just a foggy notion now though. But I can remember thinking of a neighbor as a bit of a loser for the simple reason that he and his wife had to suddenly take a longer amortization after ten years of payments on the house.

Like you suggested, it meant that they had failed.

#106 HouseBuster on 01.22.11 at 12:26 pm

An avalanche of listings is on the way.

I just did a quick check and see a few homes that were taken off the market last summer because they didn’t get their price are back on.

Sellers know about the rule changes and know they have to sell now.

#107 Ret on 01.22.11 at 12:30 pm

#19 —-Her son escaped for now but has a RE craving.

Please have her son contact me. I can help him with his craving. The treatment is very simple and effective.

He can give me $50,000 to party with or let me give him a mighty CFL kick in the tenders.

Both treatments will feel the same. At least that is what a family member told me after his Ivermere condo “treatment.”

#108 Big Al (new) on 01.22.11 at 12:30 pm

Both of my property’s float, one floats here in Ontario and the other floats down in Fort Lauderdale. Between the two of them it doesn’t cost me what the daughter and the boyfriend pay to rent the condo in downtown TO. So if your ever in Fort L, the true best place on Earth to live and down in the basin, look for a 37 cutter rig heading out for a day sail or a week long cruise to the keys gives us a wave. Otherwise catch me in Newcastle in the summer, my days of owning are over as of last
summer now enjoying the Gypsy Life, god they even through in electricity and water for the 350 a month.

#109 Mr.Lee on 01.22.11 at 12:44 pm

Firstly, let us collectively demonstrate some more civility on this site that Mr. Turner has provided for us. Freedom of opinion is a right for all no matter which side of the argument.
Now that I am done with my Jeffersonian position let us look at what Mr. Turner has been arguing for a number of year. In basic terms, and if my interpretation is correct, we are looking at fundamentals.
What are the fundamentals that drive markets? Here are some: GDP growth, population increased, wealth generating effects and yes scarcity (Economics is more about scarcity than supply and demand).
Drivers also include: not delaying gratification, psychology, marketing, and the heard mentality.
So please disagree with Mr. Turner and his like all that you want, that is your right. Now ask yourself what “fundamentals” are driving the housing market here in Canada.
Chinese proverb says, “a fool and his money will be parted, a greater fool and his money will will ensure that others are parted of their money.”

#110 Veej on 01.22.11 at 12:52 pm

Garth 2 questions,

The deadline for the new rules to save people from their own stupidity is March 18th. Is that a deal signed by March 18th or a mortgage pre-approved by March 18th with a 90 day window? Please let me know.

Secondly, many think, myself included, that there was no major event or government decision that caused the US market to top then tank. Prices had gone up so much (no where near as much as most of Canada however) that the banks realized they had lent out too much, people realized that they had spent too much and prices started to fall. Once prices started to fall the banks started to tighten people panicked and it all fed on itself. One thing I have learned from all of this is that the general populations stupidity is boundless, they truly are sheep, that may even be an insult to sheep. People will happily spend as much as someone will give them without thinking further than their next payment. The conclusion here is that the main variable that caused the decline in US prices was the banks tightening credit, people had increasingly less to spend and prices came down. Now that our “conservative” banks have to lend their own damn money for HELOCs it’s a pretty safe assumption to say that they too will suddenly become “prudent” with money and lend responsibly. When do you think they will lend mortgage money responsibly? When their loan losses begin to show cracks?
Many thanks,

#111 S.B. on 01.22.11 at 12:53 pm

The headline on this month’s Toronto Life magazine:

How did Toronto get so expensive?

http://www.torontolife.com/magazine/2011/2/

I think the answer is: we now have a SERVICE economy where everything is heavily marked-up.
Sure, we may enjoy cheap goods from China, but the day to day services are gouging us.

Examples of services with 70%+ markups (and taxes) on the prices: cups of coffee, fast food, alcohol, insurance, clothes, cigarettes, cell phone and data minutes, taxis, live sports/entertainment tickets.

And yet these items are found in most peoples’ hands during an average day’s course.

That $4 cup of coffee, that $6 beer, the actual cost is perhaps pennies on the dollar. A $30 t-shirt is worth perhaps $2.

A few select corporations are reaping the rewards.

#112 rosie on 01.22.11 at 1:00 pm

Any house in Milton is dreary-Garth

My In-laws have lived in Milton since 1966. Century house on tree lined street, at one time close to amenities. Pop. in 66 @6000. I lived in a nice town in the 60’s and 70’s in what is now Durham region. Alas, all the “nice” towns in Southern Ontario are turning into a mush of urban sprawl. You can’t tell when you leave one and enter another from Hamilton to Bowmanville to Barrie.Suburban wastelands on once prime agricultural land has been the legacy of our generation. Maybe in 30-40 years this blight will go the way of Detroit or Buffalo and nature will reclaim after it all gets bulldozed.

#113 Utopia on 01.22.11 at 1:01 pm

#63 Do the Math
————————————————————
Well that is not really such a bad plan if you are merely trying to pull in the Greatest Fool who does not understand the numbers and the risks.

You are not a realtor obviously so I won’t be too critical.

You see, a professional would have gone with the carrot and stick approach simultaneously. You are only appealing to greed. That is not enough.

When you do like the pro’s and add the element of fear into the equation your odds of selling go up significantly. We are watching and reading about Realtors doing exactly this all across the country. Let’s sum up a few of the key fear-driven ideas.

“Buy now or be priced out forever!!”
“Get approved for a 5/35 before the DEADLINE”
“Hurry you fools, the rules are changing!!”
“If you don’t buy now, you will miss out on today’s low interest rates, hurry before they start to go up!!!”
“Housing prices are sure to increase next year (as usual) so let me repeat,….buy now or you are a loser”!!
“All your friends have houses….what’s wrong with you?”

This is all well and good of course. Until the last of the buyers just won’t bite anymore. And that is when guys like you who waited too long to get out of the market will have to actually do the unthinkable.

It is the moment when you, the owner, actually start to learn the Math for yourself and stop deluding yourself with fancy manipulations. It is when you will have to revert to the one fool-proof gimmick that always works when times are getting tighter. And here it is…….

Sell for a lower price.

Luck buddy.

#114 Anotherlowlyrenter on 01.22.11 at 1:03 pm

Went to an open house last week in Toronto- property was listed with offers to be taken 6 days later – the property needs a complete reno, the whole works – asking price was $700k. Comps in the area $750 to $850, but these comps are already renovated or slightly better locations. So there’s nothing left on the table after a reno.

I told my agent to contact me if there’s no bids. She comes back to me and tells there were no bids, but the property has now been relisted, with price now at $725k.

I’m holding off offers in the hope the property gets no bids again and that they relist it this time at an even higher $750k. That’ll mean it’s really good!

Even more amusing, I emailed the selling agent directly and strangely he tells me that there was one bid but it was not acceptable. Imagine if that bid hit the ask and now he’s raised the price to what he was hoping to get from the bidding war.

#115 Backbacon Crusader on 01.22.11 at 1:05 pm

Garth,

Here’s a story from someone who doesn’t own a home, continues to rent, is embroiled in an expensive family legal battle, and yet still manages to do well for his future.

Back before the economic bust, I moved to Calgary. I resisted the urgings of the people seduced by house porn, and rented.

I moved back to my home city in 2010, and immediately began renting.

My previous employers VERY generous pension allotment was transferred to a self managed direct investing LIRA account. I returned 19% on it last year. Had I kept it in my employers care, it would have returned 1.5% (thats the current guarantee).

Renting, I can put more away into my TFSA direct investing account every single month. My self directed LIRA is currently up 2% over what it ended the year 2010 at (not that less than a month of returns means anything overall). I can afford my legal bills while save for my retirement.

And I owe it all to not falling for house porn. Rather than be trapped in a home with unanticipated costs thrown at me right and left, I can predictably put away a certain amount every month for my fixed costs in renting, and the rest is used to raise my kids, fund my retirement, and make sure that I won’t be eating kibble in my old age.

I’m not like a lot of your blog dogs, I don’t have a dual income, I don’t have a six figure income (I’m actually currently below median wage in Canada right now thanks to the move). Yet, I have more for my retirement at my age set aside and working for me than some of the people you have profiled that have come to you seeking help that are twice my age.

A cautionary tale if ever there was one, seeing as how I have 30 more working years ahead of me and have no worries about my retirement, while people who had all the time I had to prepare for it, are faced entering it with less than I have now.

#116 Mister Obvious on 01.22.11 at 1:07 pm

#92 & #49:

I quite like Kevin O’Leary and Amanda Lang. They are both excellent entertainers. That’s why they’re on TV in the first place.

#117 rosie on 01.22.11 at 1:16 pm

Correction. My wife tells me they moved to Milton in 1956. Moved to another house in Milton in 66. I grew up in Brooklin, north of Whitby On. Pop. in 1956 @2100. Pop. today over 50000. I think that this has all happened as a direct result of Regional gov’t, you know the unaccountable 2nd layer of our 4 layers of gov’t here in Southern Ontario. The P.T.B in Regional gov’t have convinced everyone that to prosper we need a larger tax base. Property taxes will actually go down with more development. I’m still waiting for my taxes to go down.

#118 Utopia on 01.22.11 at 1:20 pm

#71 HADTOMOVETOTHEARCTIC
———————————————————-

Clever girl. Congratulations, you dodged the bullet.

#119 Devore on 01.22.11 at 1:26 pm

Of course there’s a precedent for this kinda thing – when government affects real estate buyer behaviour through an arbitrary deadline. When the Obama $8,000 homebuyer grant expired last summer, the housing market withered and died. It became apparent that all Washington had done was pull forward some dregs of future demand, instead of providing a much-needed spark of ignition.

There’s a precedent much closer to home. When last year lending rules tightened in May, there was a rush of sales, then, as you repeat nearly every post, sales slumped for 6 straight months.

#120 Western Canadian on 01.22.11 at 1:28 pm

“The realtor told me prices always go up”…

Are you freaking kidding me? Have you ever seen a business card of a realtor?

Do you see any letters indicating any degree after 75% of their names? NO

Do these cards look professional for the most part? NO

Can you think of any other “profession” where the person puts a big stupid picture of their mug on their card? NO

Garth, I think I know your political views. Why do you let these pathetic comments lilke ” whaaa my realtor said prices always go up”, be posted without tearing into pathetic saps?

Be a freaking man, take responsibility for your actions and decisions.

#121 Mister Obvious on 01.22.11 at 1:28 pm

I don’t generally post links to MSM pieces, but this National Post article is a real standout. It’s a well written opinion on the global abdication of personal responsibility. It succinctly explains the genesis of greater fools and much more…

http://tinyurl.com/4z3mkdw

#122 Used to be just moved TO Mike on 01.22.11 at 1:34 pm

OK, haven’t posted in 2 years but had to let Garth know about this amazing job opportunity with CREA I think you’d meet their qualifications, you should try to sneak in there and control their media machine (might have to shave the beard)
REALTORS Care® Foundation and Communications Officer
RESPONSIBILITIES:
· Responsible for coordinating communication strategic plan, organizing advertising materials, editing & proofreading content, as assigned, about issues, events and news the Foundation wants to communicate to the media and public. These can include media releases, newsletters, articles, digital media copy, correspondence, Power Point presentations, speeches, fact sheets, publications, etc.;
· Monitor and respond as required to public and member inquiries received by telephone, email or post;
· Facilitate the collection, aggregation and reporting of Foundation fundraising activities through effective liaison with Real Estate Boards/Associations; prepare reports as required for the Foundation Board of Directors;
· Develop promotion and communications programs to incite Board/Association support and participation and build Foundation program awareness among members;
· Prepare/monitor Foundation Annual Budget;
· General communications and public relations services for CREA including writing, editing and strategic planning related to newsletters, publications, digital content and speeches

#123 young & foolish on 01.22.11 at 1:40 pm

#89 nuke :

“I am looking for a 3 bedroom house in downtown Toronto, 5 minutes from Bay Street and across from the Art Gallery on a quiet street. Am willing to go as high as $160,000 -$170,000 (current rent divided by 9%) but there are none listed. Until prices are in that range, the bubble will continue.”

Whoa! I wonder what the Canadian economy would look like if Nuke got his way!

#124 young & foolish on 01.22.11 at 1:49 pm

Mister Obvious #121 :

” …… global abdication of personal responsibility”

This is the heart of the problem. But will not the solutions end up burning the responsible as well?

#125 Devore on 01.22.11 at 1:56 pm

#66 Jeff Smith

You know what the Chinese government might do? They will pass a law saying that every woman now must bear 2 child, or else! Think they can’t or not willing to do it? They successfully did the opposite with “Have exactly one child Or else!”.

Define “success”. Maybe you should take a trip to China, and buy yourself a reality check.

#126 Devore on 01.22.11 at 2:06 pm

#68 realpaul

You mean Chinese? Why can’t we mention them?

As I’ve written elsewhere, why are you worried about what they are buying? Where were all the Chinese buyers in 2008? What happened to the value of the properties they bought?

The Chinese are just like any other momentum buyer. They don’t dictate the market. When the market turns, their houses will drop along with their neighbors’ houses, and they will sell (or suffer with gritted teeth waiting to break even) like any other “investor” will.

Their presence may have influenced prices in some areas to shoot higher, but as history has shown in Vancouver and in other places, they will not be able to keep the prices up.

#127 Utopia on 01.22.11 at 2:10 pm

100 Alister

In the stock market, we call those kinds of moves “blow off tops”, and that means DANGER, GET OUT NOW.
————————————————————

My favourite part was how the CBC titled the story “White Hot Housing Market” as if one outrageous sale was now determining the whole bubble fantasy.

We all need to keep in mind that periodically there are moments when both the average and median can get skewed by these types of sales. Lets also remember that these examples are exceptions and not the rule.

The Vancouver market has already exceeded the ability of the typical person on the average income to buy the average home. Perhaps Asian investors will buy up all the houses in Vancouver. Good for them. They will mint millionaires by the million then and be stuck with the losses when the correction comes…..

But seriously now. The game is almost over already. This is just another sign of a bubble top and while it may get more irrational yet in the months to come there is a certainty that a crash looms when the mania ends.

And yes, I am using the word “crash” in Vancouvers case because that is indeed what the current mania will lead to eventually.

#128 cellar dweller on 01.22.11 at 2:31 pm

@29 Dave in Victoria
Your comment to BestPlaceonEarth “You take so much yet give so little” . While succinct and well put ,it should have been reversed. What I mean to say is…

Bestplaceonearth “gives” very little in intelligent thought while he “takes” our valuable time to respond to his never ending drivel.

BPOE regurgitates the same old same old vancouver pablum as to why its so great to live in the “Slower Mainland” “Skiing, golfing, sailing ALL THE SAME DAY!!!!!”
Ive been livin here 30 years, aint met ANYONE who’s done 2 out of 3 in the same day, so I’ll call BS on that west coast fable.

#129 Live Within Your Means on 01.22.11 at 2:44 pm

#101 Amarillo on 01.22.11 at 12:08 pm
Listening to BestPlace’s blatherings reminds me of a good west coast story. We live in Alberta and were visiting my wife’s relatives on the island.

“Every place on earth has its own natural beauty and this place is no exception.”

…………….

SO VERY TRUE!!

#130 cellar dweller on 01.22.11 at 2:45 pm

#64 Best PlaceonErf
“Do your own due diligence and jump aboard this rocket ship.”

A rocketship like the Shuttle Challenger?

#131 pjwlk on 01.22.11 at 2:46 pm

Gotta laugh, I was having lunch with two co-workers yesterday and one told to the other that he should be buying a place now instead of renting. I mentioned that I thought it wasn’t a good time to buy right now (I couldnt’ help myself), to which he replied that houses “always go up”. I couldn’t believe it.

“Where were you in 89/90?”I asked… Well that was different he said, blah, blah, blah. So houses do go down I quipped. What about the 2008 slide before the free money became available? He gives me a long stare of disbelief/disgust. I threw a few more tid bits at him about our current state, and magically he decided he had to get back to work…

There are none so blind as those who will not see…

#132 shifty on 01.22.11 at 2:47 pm

Locals bought most of Victoria’s real estate.

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Locals+bought+most+2010+real+estate/4150095/story.html

#133 Derek on 01.22.11 at 2:48 pm

#78 Moneta wrote:
2. Top 10% in net worth wants to keep what it has and deflation sounds better than inflation, so they’ll vote for those that have policies that seem to generate deflation… tax cuts, austerity, etc.

I agree with your overall message but tax cuts are inflationary, not deflationary. The reason is that they increase the size of the government deficit. So tax cuts have the same effect as government spending.

Anyone who wants deflaton should be in favour of cutting government spending and in favour of raising taxes, if they are to be consistent. Of course they rarely are.

#134 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 01.22.11 at 2:49 pm

65/98 Burnt – All we have to do is realize that realtors and mortgage brokers are not professionals. Even if they were, their responsibility and influence is only for a very narrow piece of the much larger slice of life. In my business (lets just call it consulting) I get queries along the line of “Should I do this?” Standard response is “I dont know, you are assuming both the risk and reward”.
People have to think for themselves.

#135 moloko on 01.22.11 at 2:49 pm

I’ve been offered $377,000 (privately) for a one bedroom apartment in Kitsilano, It’s an investor so I can rent back for $1400 for as long as my little heart desires, would I be nuts not to go for it? I keep hearing that the markets going to continue going up for at least the next 6 months, but it’s kinda ideal that i can rent back.

#136 cellar dweller on 01.22.11 at 2:49 pm

@#71 HadtomovetotheArtic
Excellent story. glad to see someone from the LowerMainland that is going to do well. Keep saving those $$$$$

#137 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 2:53 pm

#98 Burnt Norton on 01.22.11 at 11:58 am

The point is, if the hired professional’s little voice is saying to himself “wow if I were this guy I would NOT be signing that paper” he / she has an professional / ethical obligation to fill in for the client’s absent little voice.

True professionals do not take advantage of disadvantaged clients and then blame the clients for being ignorant just because the client comes to the professional for help in the first place. Professional help, DA, it’s about more that handing out fact sheets and touring people aroun town in a leased BMW.

You will excuse me if I assume that your last interaction with a REALTOR® was a negative experience, for how could I possibly assume otherwise from your tirade on the matter of REALTOR®’s lack of professionalism. We are sorry for your bad experience. Now grow a set and take responsibility for your decisions, no matter what source of influence you listened to, and next time practice a little more due diligence in seeking out a “true professional”. They are out there. Try asking your friends and family for a referral of someone they trust and have had good experience with.

Sheesh…

Oh and before you do… do some reading on the law of agency and fiduciary duties. While there is great responsibility bestowed upon such a professional it does not go so far as to hold your hand while you take a pee pee in the big boys wash room.

#138 Coraline on 01.22.11 at 2:53 pm

Amanda Lang is hardly dumb. She responds so quickly to Kevin sometimes that it’s hard to believe they haven’t rehearsed the show for days. Since we know that can’t be the case, I assume she’s extremely bright. On other occasions, she has at least raised the prospect that real estate might not be a good buy at the moment. Not enough for my liking, but she’s not an unquestioning booster.

#139 cellar dweller on 01.22.11 at 3:04 pm

@#104 DA
Wow! thats quite a generalization to make. All canadian men are prissy,whiny wimps. I’ll have to tell that to my 67 year old uncle who’s been a lobster fisherman for 49 years(try getting up at 3am in -10c and going out on a pitch black sea with 30k wind chop) or my nephew who is a volunteer fireman in the Yukon who regularly fights fires in -40 weather for next to zero pay.
I worked as a highrise window cleaner for 10 plus years in all weather conditions.
Funny I didnt see any realtors standing next to be then…….
Your generalizations are ridiculous!
Get back on topic.

#140 Patz on 01.22.11 at 3:07 pm

#71 HADTOMOVETOTHEARCTIC
Enjoyed your story. Of course if family and/or friends criticize, you can always say you’ll have Nunavut. Owwch! One tiny point though to you and a few others: give tired old eyes a break and put in some paragraph breaks.

#141 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 3:08 pm

#121 Mister Obvious on 01.22.11 at 1:28 pm
I don’t generally post links to MSM pieces, but this National Post article is a real standout. It’s a well written opinion on the global abdication of personal responsibility. It succinctly explains the genesis of greater fools and much more…

http://tinyurl.com/4z3mkdw

THERE IT IS!

That’s what I’m talkin’ ’bout.

#142 Stinkbug on 01.22.11 at 3:08 pm

BC’s cardboard-box culture will be cold comfort the moment things turn south. Speaking of south, if you want the real west coast, you should try California on for size. If you have a reasonable level of education, it isn’t hard to work down there.
BTW, fourth-grade grammar and spelling errors don’t lend much credibility to your post.

#143 Stinkbug on 01.22.11 at 3:09 pm

that was for bestplaceonearth.

#144 cellar dweller on 01.22.11 at 3:11 pm

@104 DA
“Canadians need a liitle more Mussolini in them”
I’m sure the thousands of Canadian soldiers buried in Italy would be more than happy to disagree with you when you meet them…..Assuming ,of course, you will be allowed in heaven.

#145 Junius on 01.22.11 at 3:23 pm

Is it just me or does it make your skin crawl when you read the responses of our resident realtors to #9 Sad’s post. It should tell you all you need to know about the ethics of this “so called” profession. We should thank them for demonstrating this in vivid colour.

#146 kabloona on 01.22.11 at 3:24 pm

Backbacon Crusader, good for you….keep it up. Personally, I think rents will be constrained for quite some time due to excess building of the last 10 years, but that’s just an opinion.

:-)

To the guy complaining about the people who bid up the dump in Vancouver, uh….just what is the problem here? I say have at it….nobody is living in that condemned rat-trap anyway – and now the purchasers will have to pony-up another $750k to $1000k just to put a new house on the lot.

And what about the locals on the other end of that trade? They just made out like bandits thanks to what you perceive as “foreign money”. More dough in their pocket instead of the foreigners….

The higher the bubble in Vancouver goes, the bigger the “pop” when it breaks…..

;-)

Of course, the really smart one in this story is the lady across the street who re-listed and collected $300k.
Talk about money for nothing and yer….well, you get the picture.

#147 Junius on 01.22.11 at 3:27 pm

#64 BPOE,

LOL! I don’t know whether to be flattered or deeply disturbed that you use me as your stock example. BTW – you are WAY off in your analysis of me. If you only knew…..

Your posts just get crazier and crazier if that is possible. Must be closer to the End of Days for your kind. Fear and Greed always burns brightest before extinguishing itself. Must suck to be you.

#148 Erk on 01.22.11 at 3:34 pm

I Ran into my realtor at the grocery store the other day. I should have known better but I asked her how sales were going. She tells me that the buyers are eager to get in before the rate hikes. She then tells me, oh so proudly, how she and her mortage broker buddy ‘did the numbers’ and that even if houses prices DO drop, locking in at a good rate will cost less ‘in the long run’… I told her to have a nice day and went in search of some free range chicken.

#149 Bobby on 01.22.11 at 3:34 pm

For#18 Devil’s Advocate,

I think that you have missed his point. What he was saying was he took the advice of a realtor and it turned out poorly. That is the sad reality of the RE game, who do most first time buyers look to for advice, a realtor. Yet, they are commissioned salesmen who only get paid if there is a sale. So tell me, do you think they will ever say prices will and do go down.

Asking a realtor for advice on property is like asking a used car salesman his advice on a vehicle for sale. That advice is worth nothing.

Looking in today’s Times Colonist there are a host of announcements about new realtors, just ready to offer their advice to prospective clients. Now DA, how good do you think that advice will be? My guess, they will say the market never goes Dow. Enough said!

#150 Chris in Langley on 01.22.11 at 3:35 pm

Oh, oh…Kelowna’s villiage idiot is at it again.

For a while he’s nice and respectful to others, and then he starts throwing shots, sometimes to the point of Garth telling him to get a grip. The term is “dual personality.”

Sybil anyone?

So he tells someone else to “grow a set of balls?!?!”

This is the same guy who asked people to hold him accountable if he acted like an ass again…and yet nothing changes.

Who really needs to grow a set….perhaps the person who doesn’t have the nads to do as he said he’s going to do….keep his word?

He continues to hold to the statement that his 50 ish wife looks 22, but with no proof. There’s a man with balls. Blabs but can’t back it up.

Let’s see the a photo of this miracle woman.

#151 Silentblogger on 01.22.11 at 4:01 pm

#72 confused and a little crazed on 01.22.11 at 4:59 am

Maybe I added to the confused and crazed a little…I’m being drawn in a bit and yipping a bit but I do realize I was mistaken…

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Money/1239849460/ID=1758092890

That would have been the correct LIST price but the sell was 533,000 OVER asking…I guess I was just damn well laughing so hard I misquoted as I was writing just after watching the newscast…

all splitting hairs don’t you think? before the run up in RE in this country ANY of the numbers we’ve been quoting would have been considered “crazy talk” I think…

signs the end is near?? might be even higher than this, WHO KNOWS!!

for the record, sold my house – full ask, no conditions and about to join the ranks of the renters – proceeds invested with some pretty smart (just my opinion) and trustworthy people. This will be a fun ride for the next few years.

#152 Live Within Your Means on 01.22.11 at 4:02 pm

#105 Utopia on 01.22.11 at 12:22 pm
#53 The Other Dave

“I remember in 1997 if you got a 25 year amort you were a loser”

————————————————————

You said it Dave! Gee, it was not that long ago either. In fact, before this near zero interest environment it was just common sense to choose the lowest amortization period you could afford. Most people took that route. Paid off houses in 15 or 20 years maximum.

Why? So we could be debt free sooner. Mortgage burnings were a big event. The holy grail of home ownership was also that moment in life when you finally got to tell the bank to take a hike and you could then look forward to your really big plans. Big party usually. I went to more than a few.

It’s good you remember it too Dave. Amazing how the whole mindset has changed so dramatically in little more than a decade.

There really was a time when prudence in household budgets was more than just a buzzword. It is all just a foggy notion now though. But I can remember thinking of a neighbor as a bit of a loser for the simple reason that he and his wife had to suddenly take a longer amortization after ten years of payments on the house.

Like you suggested, it meant that they had failed.

……………

My sis & I had bought a TH together. A few yrs later, met my DH & yr. after he moved here & moved in with my sis & I. He spent 6 mos. taking an ‘English as A 2nd Language course’. A yr. later I & my sis married on the same day – I in my late 30’s, sis in her early 40’s. Sis & her DH bought a TH down the st. They paid min. down and max. amortiz. period. We sold our place, maybe 2 yrs. later, w/25% down and paid it off 7 yrs. later. Tried to convince sis over the yrs. to at least put max money down when their 5 yr. renewal came around. No way, they were too busy buying stuff. Her DH’s comment is ‘she’s out pumping up the economy’, when I called and she’s out. He’s actually no better. They basically live on their CPP & OAS, his small vet pension when he served eons ago & her ‘minute pension’ and LOC. They both live based on when their cheques will come in. But, they spend probably 2X on their food bills than we do.

We took out a mtg. that allowed us to double our payments monthly, before weekly was allowed, and we could pay of a %age of the original mtg. on our renewal date. Had read about what Garth has suggested – forget the name – in a NP article, etc., way back then, but we didn’t have the bucks or know how to do it.

BTW, I may criticize my sis’ spending habits, but I dearly love her and she knows how I feel about her spending habits. As our parents said many years ago, she’ll never change.

Sorry for my long rant. I, too, know that my DH and I have been ignorant about financial investments, like the average person in Cda. Looked back in my records the other day and discovered we started investing in 98 with an Mutual Fund guy and have made little gain over the years.

#153 jess on 01.22.11 at 4:04 pm

dogman

tartuffery?
http://www.propublica.org/article/general-electric-faces-first-jury-test-in-omniscan-litigation
Omniscan was approved for sale in the United States in 1993. The drug has largely been the property of European firms, but GE acquired it with the 2004 purchase of the pharmaceutical company Amersham, based in the United Kingdom.

GE CEO Jeff Immelt to head up the new Council on Jobs and Competitiveness.
==========================
March 17 (Bloomberg) — General Electric Co. wants to lead the U.S. effort to double exports and devise ways to pare health-care costs, Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Immelt said during a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.

“In Reagan’s time, America was the world’s biggest exporter by far. Today, we’re fourth,” Immelt said, adding China will pass the U.S. in total manufacturing output in the next four years. “We can only reverse this trend by producing great products and selling them competitively in every corner of the world.”

GE, the world’s biggest maker of jet engines, locomotives, medical-imaging equipment and power plant turbines gets more than 50 percent of its sales from overseas and produces $20 billion in exports, Immelt said. He said the U.S. needs to meld the former president’s optimism with tough-mindedness as it works its way out of the global recession.

“It’s time for this generation, my generation, to accept the responsibility of every generation: to create a more prosperous America than we inherited by solving problems that became acute during our watch,” Immelt said. They include the deficit, health care and energy, he said.

Immelt appeared in Simi Valley today to announce GE will donate $10 million toward a two-year program at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Library celebrating the former president’s 100th birthday. It will begin in February 2011.
============

#154 Hoof - Hearted on 01.22.11 at 4:22 pm

#68 realpaul

RE The Vancouver house that went for approx.$1Million to $1.6 Million

” A case that was reported tonight on the CBC involved someone I know….and here’s the skinny”.

===============================

let me guess…Somali pirates were the buyers…right?

Anyway, could you please enlighten the rest of us the apparent methodology in this deal .

What happens,…is a certain demographic group targetted and a bus hired?

Is there something special about the locale ?….the house is probably a tear down.

Can this methodology be repeated elsewhere, what is actually behind this bidding war. ie can we call this realtor and arrange the same gig ?

#155 Live Within Your Means on 01.22.11 at 4:27 pm

#116 Mister Obvious on 01.22.11 at 1:07 pm
#92 & #49:

I quite like Kevin O’Leary and Amanda Lang. They are both excellent entertainers. That’s why they’re on TV in the first place.

……………..

Quite like your scarcasm :-)

#156 realpaul on 01.22.11 at 4:29 pm

#127 Coraline….everything you see on TV , including the Lang and O’leary banter is scripted. They are reading the clever asides from a teleprompter. The personal banter you see between the news heads on at 6 is also 100% script…no sponteneity period. Look at the credits….it lists who the writers are. There is nothing real about television or anything you see there. The reason they call it a ‘show’ is because its ‘all show’ as in show business.

#157 Hoof - Hearted on 01.22.11 at 4:32 pm

Realpaul

re Trevor Linden….(yesterday’s post)

Yeah, I am begining to get nauseous seeing Captain Canucks face everywhere.

I’ve seen news features on his RE projects….I think they look like shite and they must have used some retro 50’s architectural plans.

There have been many a tale of an ex-jock sucked in other ex and current jocks into investments and its gone real bad. Can you say Bear Mountain ?

Linden had a few good years but basically sucked later on. He is luring in a bunch of people and I don’t see this ending up well. He is getting to much exposure which to me equates with “bait”.

Same with Steve Nash..
Really, how many fitnesss clubs can an economy support? Is this a trophy wife grooming facility?

#158 AG Sage on 01.22.11 at 4:36 pm

#1? As if we needed more evidence that HoliestPlaceOnGod’sGreenEarth was a bot. Or Garth’s sock puppet. I still bet on sock.

So April will be the bellwether, eh? Well, it will be spring before you know it. The flowers will be budding and the– well, the flowers will be budding.

#159 Do the Math on 01.22.11 at 4:38 pm

#113 Utopia
____________________________________

Absolutely correct on two counts… I am definitely not a realtor and I did miss the fear factor in my draft advertisement.

As for going easy on me and not being too critical, please don’t hold back… I’m a big boy and can take it. If there are flaws with my approach or logic please provide your input. Perspectives and opinions of everyone will only ensure I approach this in the best way possible to make it happen.

Now, deluding myself with fancy manipulations… I think not. This whole game (which it has turned into over the last 4/5 years is all about duping the next guy. I am fortunate enough not to have been sucked into (at least IMO) this frenzy. No 5/35 for this kid… only 12 years left on the mortgage. No 3000 sqft house up on Bear Mountain trying to keep up with everybody else. I’ve got a lot of room to manoeuvre. I can sustain an approx 45% drop in market value where the house will still be worth at least what I paid for it (yes fee’s/interest paid/property taxes/ IRD taken into account). There will be no negative equity for this kid unless we decline by more than 65%. If Garth is right about the long slow decline, I’ve got a bit of time to work.

I never bought the house thinking of it as an investment but with the way things are going it would be crazy of me not to try to take advantage of an approx $200K + tax free windfall.

Will ensure my future realtor incorporates the fear factor.

Merci et bonne chance tout le monde!

#160 boomer62 on 01.22.11 at 4:41 pm

#118 Utopia on 01.22.11 at 1:20 pm

said,

” #71 HADTOMOVETOTHEARCTIC
———————————————————-
Clever girl. Congratulations, you dodged the bullet.”

Boomer62 says…
Utopia, get your head checked.
What’s the next move be from Cambridge Bay? Milton?

#161 race against time on 01.22.11 at 4:46 pm

I believe this suggests that Richmond may not be able to count on asian money for long.

Ghost towns in China:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1339536/Ghost-towns-China-Satellite-images-cities-lying-completely-deserted.html

#162 Betamax on 01.22.11 at 4:51 pm

#83 Devil’s Advocate: “Grow a set boys, become men.”

This is what people revert to when logic fails.

#163 Roial1 on 01.22.11 at 5:10 pm

#41 Devil’s Advocate on 01.22.11 at 1:22 am

It’s good to trust others but, not to do so is much better. – Benito Mussolini

Great motto.——— For the Stazi or geshtapo or the KGB take your pick. All are just —lovers.

#164 Burnt Norton on 01.22.11 at 5:11 pm

DA, actually I am fortunate to have had positive interactions with realtors. Via referrals from friends and colleagues I rely on a network of professionals (including realtors) whom I am able to trust and I have and will continue to profit from their earnest advice.

My post was in response to your slam of the earlier post by Sad. Your ongoing responses continue to do justice to your mindset. Keep it up. I especially chuckle at your schoolyard taunts like “grow a set”. I, like other true professionals, go about our work with pride and integrity. We also don’t typically feel the need to CAPITALIZE our titles and stomp around throwing tantrums on an anonymous economics blog.

#165 jess on 01.22.11 at 5:12 pm

hacker, hackee ,and the hackiest http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jan/21/timeline-andy-coulson-resignation
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jan/22/news-world-phone-hacking-newspapers
================
Huh? CRTC may ease ban on broadcasting false or misleading news …16 Jan 2011 … The CRTC is proposing a regulatory change that would give Canadian TV and radio stations more leeway to broadcast false or misleading news.
http://www.thestar.com/news/…/922697–crtc-may-ease-ban-on-broadcasting-false-or-misleading-news – Cached

#166 Debtfree on 01.22.11 at 5:14 pm

Ground zero …. the okanagan.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/okanagan_similkameen/kelownacapitalnews/news/114383259.html

#167 S.B. on 01.22.11 at 5:17 pm

Harper meant it: we will not recognize Canada when he’s finished with it. Do not even try to protest:

A police oversight body is probing the comments of a police officer who was caught on YouTube telling a man who refused to be searched during the G20 summit, “This ain’t Canada right now.”

The video shows a verbal confrontation between Paul Figueiras and York Regional Police officers working summit duty in downtown Toronto, about a block from the security perimeter.

One officer tells Figueiras that police need to search his backpack, but he refuses.

“You haven’t opened up your bag, so take off,” the officer says to the man.

When the man refers to being in Canada, the officer replies: “This ain’t Canada right now.”

Figueiras told CBC News on Friday, “It certainly meant in that moment that this officer was saying to me, ‘As far as I am concerned, you don’t have civil rights,'”

He said at one point, the officer grabbed him and he had to back away.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2011/01/21/g20-police-officer-youtube.html#ixzz1Bnew0AcW

#168 Timing is Everything on 01.22.11 at 5:23 pm

#17 sutluc – said “Bullshit. I also live around this rainy hellhole.”

Why would one choose to live in a rainy hellhole? Oh, I forgot….everyone is high and does not know or care anymore. Silly me.

#169 Timing is Everything on 01.22.11 at 5:29 pm

#17 sutluc

This may be more to your liking….

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2011/01/22/nb-storm-leds-to-deaths.html

I won’t even get into Weyburn, but ya never know, you like it better….

Or this frozen hellhole…your choice which ‘hellhole’ you prefer….

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2011/01/21/40-car-crahs654.html

#170 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 5:32 pm

#139 cellar dweller on 01.22.11 at 3:04 pm

Yes a “generalization” is what it was

#134 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 01.22.11 at 2:49 pm
65/98 Burnt – All we have to do is realize that realtors and mortgage brokers are not professionals. Even if they were, their responsibility and influence is only for a very narrow piece of the much larger slice of life. In my business (lets just call it consulting) I get queries along the line of “Should I do this?” Standard response is “I dont know, you are assuming both the risk and reward”.
People have to think for themselves.

And again… THERE IT IS! That’s what I’m talkin’ ‘bout.

#145 Junius on 01.22.11 at 3:23 pm
Is it just me or does it make your skin crawl when you read the responses of our resident realtors to #9 Sad’s post. It should tell you all you need to know about the ethics of this “so called” profession. We should thank them for demonstrating this in vivid colour.

Didn’t they teach you to read with just a little bit of objectivity in law school Junius. My objection is not with people blaming supposed professionals for not living up to their legal fiduciary and ethical duties. My objection is that they (those supposed professionals) be used as a scapegoat for the negligent acts of their clients in the early stages of due diligence. Again, there is no buyer beware in the purchase of a property but there most certainly is in the professional you choose to represent you.

#149 Bobby on 01.22.11 at 3:34 pm
Asking a realtor for advice on property is like asking a used car salesman his advice on a vehicle for sale. That advice is worth nothing.

I very well could be. Depends on the individual you select to provide that advice. I am sure there are a great many reading this who have had a very positive experience with their choice of REALTOR.
A true “professional” is not going to predict the future and not going to tell you what you should do no matter how hard you press them to. A true professional will help you make those decisions yourself by asking you thought provoking questions a sales person would not because it might lead to you doing something that would not put money in their pocket. Through asking those thought provoking questions a true professional will help guide you to the decision which is best for you.

#171 Moneta on 01.22.11 at 5:49 pm

I agree with your overall message but tax cuts are inflationary, not deflationary. The reason is that they increase the size of the government deficit. So tax cuts have the same effect as government spending
———
I’m not giving an opinion on whether I think tax cuts are inflationary or deflationary, I’m giving an opinion on what I think the average Joe thinks.

Inflation for the average Joe is what it costs him to buy stuff and services per month. The average Joe about to retire or already retired does not want inflation and wants tax cuts because he thinks he’ll have more money to spend.

#172 john m on 01.22.11 at 5:50 pm

#51 Jsan on 01.22.11 at 2:21 am

“#33 Silentblogger on 01.22.11 at 12:45 a

That’s fantastic, let the madness continue. Flaherty and Carneys hair must falling out when they continue to see this. As the insanity continues and Canadian personal debt continues it’s climb to the stratosphere, they will have absolutely no choice but to clamp down even harder, next time probably with higher interest rates and larger deposits required.<<<<<<<<<< I.M.O.–H.F. nor C's hair is falling out in fact they created this mess! They know exactly what they are doing and are trying day by day to prevent a crash on Mr. H's watch until he manages to force an election and retain power…then watch what happens–of course interest rates are going to go up and would have even without the disastrous bubble these wizards have created. Ever think they are trying to start another buying frenzy before the new guidelines come in and create the false impression (as they have since day 1) that "things are different here".Oh what a sweet little con-game and when the wheels fall off and they will and H is elected for another term (they hope)…then they will say they seen it coming and tried to prevent it but its really the peoples fault (as they are already stating). …pretty much the pattern so far is it not???

#173 Cookie Monster on 01.22.11 at 6:02 pm

#108 Big Al (new) on 01.22.11 at 12:30 pm
Cool. But why do you have two boats? Could you not just buy one bigger boat and just sail it up and down with the seasons?

#174 Alberta Ed on 01.22.11 at 6:02 pm

“I dislike both Amanda and Kevin, but I don’t think you need to call her a b*tch.

“Agreed. — Garth”

Admonitions accepted.

#175 Timing is Everything on 01.22.11 at 6:03 pm

#63 Do the Math – said “…wish me luck.”

Good luck. You’re going to need it.

#176 Live Within Your Means on 01.22.11 at 6:05 pm

DH has been working all day downstairs. He laid Costco laminate flooring in an elarged BR & family room. He’s been working on the downstairs for mos. Just called me to hear/see ‘The Band” from a ceiling projector he mounted (reject from a school). We don’t need a wide screen TV downstairs. He’ll spend more time downstairs :-)Hopefully, in a few days I’ll be able to clear out all the reno ‘dust’, etc. all over. Have actually been trying to keep up with it for 6/8 mos.

Then it’ll be getting rid of those 30 yr old carpets in the bdrooms and replacing them with hardwood and redo the 2 piece ensuite. Thankfully, my DH has the knowledge to do it on his own.

#177 Coraline on 01.22.11 at 6:36 pm

realpaul: Wow, thanks for revealing the man behind the curtain. They must give scripts to the guests, too, so that the responses Lang and O’Leary provide will be perfectly in tune. And it’s amazing that when other hosts sub for them, it’s not as funny, and they don’t joke about Christmas presents and other things like that.

#178 S.B. on 01.22.11 at 6:38 pm

Hi Garth, still flying? FYI an article ;)

Virgin America has decided to abstain from Toronto. The local economy must not be that hot.

“Today, the airline also announces it will suspend service to Toronto Pearson International Airport (YYZ) effective April 6, 2011. The airline has decided to indefinitely suspend its YYZ service and instead immediately move capacity into other existing and more lucrative markets from the West Coast – including DFW.

“We would like to thank the Toronto airport and community for supporting us. We hope to return to YYZ at some point, but in the smaller Toronto-West Coast markets we were not able to stimulate demand as quickly as we would have liked. As a young and growing airline we’ve decided to instead focus on the immediate opportunities that DFW and other markets offer from our California base. DFW is one of the largest business and leisure travel markets from the West Coast, and with our unique brand of low fares and upscale service – we’ve been able to come in and capture that demand in short order,” added Walke.”

#179 Coraline on 01.22.11 at 7:28 pm

realpaul: I shouldn’t have been so sarcastic. Of course the shows have scripts, but there is still room for considerable ad-libbing. The show is distinctly different when other hosts are on.

#180 Junius on 01.22.11 at 7:30 pm

#170 DA,

It is not only a lawyer’s legal obligation to advise their client of the risks in a deal they can be held liable if they do not. Furthermore they never offer “business advice” as in “this house is a good deal”. If they did and the deal went south they could be liable and most likely uninsured.

In contrast the Real Estate industry is lead by a group of snake oil salesman who clearly do not care about the average Canadian. The alternative is that their proclivity for self deception has reached a point of clinical insanity. Either way they have no credibility.

While all of this is sad enough it is tragic to see the chorus of realtors like Mick the Prick and others come on here and play their game of blame the buyer every time a bad story about a Re purchase comes on blog. There is simply no empathy or sense of collective responsibility.

Buyer beware. Indeed.

#181 Industrial Guy on 01.22.11 at 7:49 pm

The Minister of Finance is very clever guy. If he were planning, Oh, let’s say a Spring election. His actions this week were almost brilliant.

The announced changes to mortgage regulation were needed a long time ago. By giving everyone almost four months before they come into effect, the Minister has given the housing market one last shot in the arm. Expect a Greater Fool-A-Thon between now and the time these new regulations come into effect as desperate young families make the worst financial mistake of their lives. I think Mr. Minister is counting on the herd mentality here …. been to “Head Smashed in Buffalo Jump” in Alberta?

The RE industry is already billing this as “a last chance event” before the new rules come in……..
A significant jump in house sales just before the election? Could this be a planned event? Oh, that’s just cynical, right?

#182 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 01.22.11 at 7:49 pm

128 Cellar dude – you have to get out more!

While I cant say that doing all those activities on the same day is logistically easy (or affordable!), or that
conditions would be prime for each activity, they could
certainly be done on a number of days mostly in the later
winter early fall.

I am on the east coast of VI and last weekend ny neighbour went golfing, I went cycling, my business partner went boating and an employee was skiing.
Roial1 can verify it can be done!

#183 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 01.22.11 at 7:51 pm

….should be later winter early spring…….hard to tell around here sometimes…..

#184 realpaul on 01.22.11 at 8:04 pm

#179 Cora….I repeat…none of the ‘pleasent banter’ between talking heads is spontaneous. These people are actors. It is referred to as a ‘news show’ because it is just that…a show. One of the BNN announcers was fired for making this statement or ‘ad libbing’ as you put it.

” I don’t really know much about this. I only play an analyst on television”.

The stations would have you ‘relate’ to the characters’ that are portrayed. It’s that ‘filling the void’ that brings back the viewers that TV stations do. They want you to believe that the presenters are somehow ‘your friends’. It helps the advertisers efforts at gaining your attention.

Having worked in advertising I can tell you….it’s all bullshit…..right down to the way we place the little electric stripe on the soap box and position the products lines so as to appeal to your basic fears and make you loath the stench of your vagina.

Stop believing and start thinking.

#185 Rhino on 01.22.11 at 8:07 pm

#176 Live Within Your Means

Really who cares and how is that relevant? go to a boring reno story blog..

#186 S.B. on 01.22.11 at 8:08 pm

#172 john m on 01.22.11 at 5:50 pm

The elites’ (C & F) hair is not falling out!! When the SHTF their ilk will simply retreat to their real bunkers and hideaways. This is all controlled chaos with predictable endings. Endless computer simulations can predict exactly the ripple effects of system tweaks. Iceland, Ireland, Europe worked out according to plan.
Even Bill Gates built a seed bank, he knows what’s coming our way re. food supplies

Recall after WWII the real perps and elites were spirited away to South America, or to USA as assets under Operation Paperclip:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Paperclip

They will always walk.
Who took the fall for AIG, Lehman, Bear Sterns, Freddie May/Mac, BOA? Nobody.

#187 OttawaMike on 01.22.11 at 8:28 pm

#78 Moneta on 01.22.11 at 9:42 am
I agree with #’s 2 and 6 in your summary but remember what happened to the Mulroney conservatives?
I know the GST, sleaze and various other factors played into their epic demise but the bottoming of the housing market in ’92 sure didn’t help matters. That fateful election took place in ’93 in case nobody remembers.

Industrial Guy said it right in post #181, this goosing of the market is not a coincidence.

#188 Hoof - Hearted on 01.22.11 at 8:32 pm

Just in from CRTC, CMHC, BoC, “F” “H” and “C”

Your local religious channel network will be moved up into beyond the 500 channel universe.

In its place will be Mike Holmes reruns, Property Virgins and all other RE related belief systems .

Pope Cameron Muir et al will preside

The collection plate will accept your current earthly manifestation , cannibalization of your young’s future and /or your soul.

#189 Junius on 01.22.11 at 8:34 pm

#181 Industrial Guy,

You said, “A significant jump in house sales just before the election? Could this be a planned event? Oh, that’s just cynical, right?”

Be cynical. I am still shocked they didn’t call one last Spring when they talking themselves up as geniuses and the country was high from the Olympics. However they still appear to be short of what they need for a majority so it remains a tricky call.

I am betting against a huge spike in sales. I think we will see a HUGE surge in listings. Of that, I have no doubt. The RE industry will be stoking and pumping but I suspect their are fewer greaterfools left then every one in Reville is hoping for.

#190 Timing is Everything on 01.22.11 at 8:38 pm

You cannot be evicted unless a new buyer proves they will occupy the unit themselves. — Garth

They haven’t even moved in yet and fighting is already starting.

Sno-cone anyone?

#191 Hoof - Hearted on 01.22.11 at 8:46 pm

Re O’Leary

I wish someone would glue pubic hair gleaned from a flea ridden camel onto his head….the guy is a certified prick.

======================
re Spring Election

I doubt even Vegas will take odds….anybody even remotely in tune with the way politics ferments can call this a no-brainer.

Harper is in a no -lose situation….he’s trolling the watersafter having thrown the bloody bait out via Captain “F”.

Scenario 1:
If he wins, consider past actions as a mandate to continue

Scenario 2:
If he loses then so what..exit strategy right, nice pension ,or corporate board appointments…. let the clueless Liberals and useless NDP take the fall ( which the majority of the public will be in sheer dread of )

Scenario 3 :
Minority Gov’t….the NDP and Liberals will be exposed as vote pimps simply taking up space (ie poor opposition) and trying to qualify for golden pension.

Conclusion:
There is a NO WIN situation in place for 99.99999 % of Canadians

#192 OttawaMike on 01.22.11 at 8:47 pm

I was attending to one of my contracts in my side biz today. The client was an executive banker in the Ottawa head office of one of the big 5.
I don’t want to disclose the bank name but it rhymes with Skank of Noska Vosha.

While I worked, we discussed finance amongst other things and the subject of easy credit came up. Mr. Banker acknowledged the unprecedented level of Canadian indebtedness so I gave him the line from this blog. “Are the Canadian banks not enablers or drug dealers by handing out easy credit?”

His reply was ( & I paraphrase)”that this credit binge is fueled by historically low interest rates(OK fair enough) but then he went on to explain that the lending landscape has totally changed in this country with so many alternate lenders in business who did not exist even ten years ago. “These new guys have brought unprecedented competition and also spurred on the mortgage broker industry. So you see it is all the competition but don’t worry the big guys are still prudent lenders”

Sucking & Blowing:
I inquired about a housing correction in any of the large Canadian markets and he just could not see it happening. Funny thing was I did get him to admit the level of debt is obscene. He even went so far as to describe the messes he sees every day with his access to credit files and investments. He also brought up the inevitable return to 6%-8% avg. interest rates without any prompting from me.

#193 Devore on 01.22.11 at 9:10 pm

#180 Junius

Realtors are always making statements like “it’s a great deal”, “that’s an easy fix”, “you can just take that wall out”, “it’s a good investment”, “that won’t be a problem”, etc. Are they lawyers? engineers? city planners? investment advisers? accountants?

No, they are commissioned salespeople, and most don’t even see a problem with representing both the buyer and the seller, double-ending a deal. What does that tell you about their ethics and where their loyalties lie?

#194 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 9:29 pm

#180 Junius on 01.22.11 at 7:30 pm

#170 DA,
It is not only a lawyer’s legal obligation to advise their client of the risks in a deal they can be held liable if they do not. Furthermore they never offer “business advice” as in “this house is a good deal”. If they did and the deal went south they could be liable and most likely uninsured.

How do you know that I or any number of other REALTORS® with whom you have never dealt do not do the same?

#180 Junius on 01.22.11 at 7:30 pm

In contrast the Real Estate industry is lead by a group of snake oil salesman who clearly do not care about the average Canadian. The alternative is that their proclivity for self deception has reached a point of clinical insanity. Either way they have no credibility.

That can only be pure conjecture based solely upon your personal experience. To wit only you can be blamed for solely and freely having chosen the wrong advisor from a field of many, most of who I would suggest are not at all as you caste them.

#180 Junius on 01.22.11 at 7:30 pm

While all of this is sad enough it is tragic to see the chorus of realtors like Mick the Prick and others come on here and play their game of blame the buyer every time a bad story about a Re purchase comes on blog. There is simply no empathy or sense of collective responsibility.

Buyer beware. Indeed.

Clearly your legal training has not afforded you opportunity to delve into the ramifications of breach of fiduciary duty. For had you, you would know the consequences can be harsh. Does it happen that a REALTOR breaches their fiduciary duties or the ethical standards of the association? Yes, and when it does it rightfully should be settled with just restitution to the client. I encourage any who feel they were the victim of such to pursue the matter, please. We are a self policing profession but we can not police those inappropriate behaviors within our membership we have no knowledge of. If it is a breach of the law of agency I encourage you to bring that before the courts.

I would also like to add that the CREA REALTOR Code of Ethics which is of a higher standard than the law of agency requires. Do you understand that Junius? Again; the CREA REALTOR Code of Ethics is a more stringent demanding article than that of the common law.

Once a REALTOR is accused of violating the common law of agency or the REALTOR Code of Ethics there is no escaping a most rigorous investigation and being dealt with rather harshly by both the courts and the Association if found guilty. You are or were a lawyer Junius you should know this.

The problem becomes when someone feels they were wronged by their REALTOR® when, in fact, it was they themselves who made a poor decision and in reality are simply seeking a scapegoat for their foolish decisions. Ultimately though the matter is not pursued formally as the plaintiff knows who is at fault and it was not the REALTOR®. Unfortunately it is a lot more comforting for some to continue to blame someone else for the foolish mistakes they alone made.

I’ve had clients do things I thought they should not. Did I stop them? Well who am I to tell them what to do and what not to do. Fortunately I was there to help mitigate the losses they might incur along the way to this very day. Oh and some who did what I thought they ought not in fact did, surprisingly to me, make a good decision. Like I said – who am I to tell them what they ought and ought not do? I’m here to help them figure out for themselves what the best thing is for them not me. But you can bet I’m watching out for me too along the way, as no, in almost two decades in a business in which it is not a matter of if you will be sued but when, I have not yet.

#195 Coraline on 01.22.11 at 9:36 pm

realpaul: I can’t believe I was considerate enough to apologize to you for being sarcastic. It’s not ALL scripted. Some shows are. But keep your patronizing comments to yourself. Someone called Amanda Lang a dumb b*tch, why don’t you address that instead?

#196 john m on 01.22.11 at 9:36 pm

Interesting reading>>>”The banks themselves have taken on virtually no new risk. According to CMHC numbers, in the two years from the beginning of 2007 to January 2009, Canadian banks increased their total mortgage credit outstanding by only 0.01%. Fully 90.5% of all growth in total Canadian mortgage credit outstanding since 2007 has been accounted for by Mortgage Backed Securities. Of course, the banks have no interest in saying “no” if you have qualified for a securitized CMHC loan — because they bear no risk if you default.

If that sounds like sub-prime mortgages, it should. Sub-prime is any loan below prime. If a bank refuses you a loan, and CMHC gives you one, the loan is sub-prime. As Lepoidevin says in his warning letter, “Every single U.S. lender specializing in sub-prime has gone bankrupt. The largest sub-prime lender in the world is now the Canadian government.”

This is the ticking time bomb Harper has tossed at the Canadian taxpayer. Why? So that he can maintain the fiction that he is a good economic manager and win a majority in the next election.

The problem is that no opposition political party wants to expose the looming disaster and risk being responsible for a dramatic fall in house prices. The price of political cowardice will be very high. And, in the end, the housing bubble will burst anyway, putting taxpayers on the hook for tens of billions of dollars in defaulted mortgages.

(Murray Dobbin is a freelance writer and commentator, author of several best-selling books, and a member of the CCPA’s board of directors.)
Publications

#197 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 9:36 pm

Junius

You are not a lawyer any more.

Why?

#198 edmonton mortgage broker on 01.22.11 at 9:41 pm

#134 Dark Sad Monster Bunny

Agreed! Lawyers (it pains me to say) Engineers and Chartered accountants are examples of professionals. Realtors and mortgage brokers are NOT! not even close. we are salespeople and hustlers. in my father’s generation, only scrubs that couldn’t cut it in a real job, became realtors. and i personally was started my career placing mortgages in a time when you didn’t need ANY license or qualification whatsoever. you should have seen my 101 class back in 2002. full of immigrants and taxi drivers who couldn’t even speak english. scary….

#199 The Bigger They Are .....The Harder They Fall on 01.22.11 at 9:44 pm

Good post Garth. Yes, the exodus is finally happening in Van City. Live in Kits and rental signs have popped up everywhere. $1500 per month and working in the service industry doesn’t cut it. I thought they would have waited til March as lots of snow on the local hills. However, I guess they got the Xmas Visa bill. “Don’t leave home without it.”

#200 Chris no longer in England on 01.22.11 at 9:49 pm

Oh no! The World is sinking!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1349532/Dubai-islands-falling-sea-Dubai-World-sinks-fund-crisis.html

#201 Dan in Victoria on 01.22.11 at 9:50 pm

Birdie birdie in the sky
Why do you do that in my eye
I will not laugh I will not cry
I’m just glad that cows don’t fly

Birdie birdie in the sky
Why do you do that in my eye
I will not laugh I will not cry
I’m just glad that some bloggers don’t fly

#202 Moneta on 01.22.11 at 9:51 pm

OttawaMike on 01.22.11 at 8:47 pm
——
So Mr. Banker is implicitly saying that competition is bad… free markets are bad. I’ll be darned. LOL!

#203 Utopia on 01.22.11 at 9:57 pm

#145 Junius

“Is it just me or does it make your skin crawl when you read the responses of our resident realtors to #9 Sad’s post”
———————————————–

I had the same thoughts. They sure make professional sounding statements to the public, don’t they?

So where is that sarcasm font anyway, Devil?

#204 OttawaMike on 01.22.11 at 10:07 pm

#189 & #190 Timing and Hoof

Funny stuff! (Made me LOL but then I have a twisted sense of humour)

#205 TheBigLebowski on 01.22.11 at 10:16 pm

Like I have said, all the stimulus/1.5 trillion only caused the U.S economy to move sideways for 24 months. What will they do for an encore. QE3 is already in the works and the first two have only created a treading water effect on housing and economic activity. Inflation is a means for the financial elite to steal from the poor. Fiat money is the mechanism for this theft. Sound money would prevent this but our society is based on dis honest money backed by debt. As the world reserve currency is discredited a return to sound money will come to fruition. The global economy will demand this as confidence in fiat money controlled by a global banking elite is lost. Interest rates will rise as the risk for holding currency increases. This is in our future so position accordingly.

#206 OttawaMike on 01.22.11 at 10:20 pm

Realtors Know™

My good buddy called me last November to help him inspect a 3700 square foot south Ottawa McMansion he eventually purchased.
The “pro” listing the place insisted to my pal that the propane heating system cost to operate was identical to natural gas. The govt. has a great website (nrcan)comparing heating costs and it shows that propane only comes in slightly behind electric baseboards for efficiency.
I’m in the business as a side line so I knew my numbers. Worrying about losing his deal, the guy kept arguing with me.
My friends first propane bill for 6 weeks? $1150

But as DA always says: ” It is buyer beware ” The realtor is really there to just unlock and lock the doors, plus point out the function of the rooms. That will be 5% +HST, Thankyou.
As long as people comply with the cartel, nothing will change soon.

#207 Utopia on 01.22.11 at 10:23 pm

#159 Do the Math

“Now, deluding myself with fancy manipulations… I think not. This whole game (which it has turned into over the last 4/5 years) is all about duping the next guy”.
———————————————————–

Right. I can see you have a very clear idea of what you are doing. You are confident too that housing will drop (and it will) and you wish to take advantage of a very large capital gain before it is too late. You also wish to take advantage of the next greater fool in the process.

Time is very short now.

Flaherty just did the last call and now its official. Housing is going to start its nose-dive. Those who understand the impacts and influence of politics on the economy are now on borrowed time. They need to get out too and having a firm date of March 18th means the rush is on.

They have been told in essence that the top is in. We are all on borrowed actually. I do not think the writing on the wall comes bigger than this except if done in crayon by eight year olds.

My objection to your plan is that it strikes me you want to continue living in the place you sold so that you can gloat as you watch the other guy fail, knowing full well you got out in time and he got suckered because he does not understand the market forces at play.

Do the right thing. Just take your winnings and move on.

#208 Stevermt on 01.22.11 at 10:34 pm

#156 realpaul
It’s called the Lang & O’leary Exchange..not SHOW
I can see that they’re having a conversation, in between the talking points which they have..all TV people have to have some kind of script…but there is some real exchange there..
Amanda is terrific and Kevin is a pompous ass and an entertaining one who would like to sell this country to China but I digress.

#209 wetcoaster on 01.22.11 at 10:52 pm

“He even went so far as to describe the messes he sees every day with his access to credit files and investments. He also brought up the inevitable return to 6%-8% avg. interest rates without any prompting from me.”

Ottawa Mike,

Interesting stuff. This is where you know the banks and F’s flunkies have seen the damage we haven’t been privy to and know full well what’s coming.

When you read “The Big Short” you will see that the highest levels of finance saw the inevitable collapse years before the real estate bizz whores and covered themselves by shorting themselves and associated corporations.

The manipulation of the Canadian credit card defaults info is step one and is exactly what the US first encountered but the talking heads buried it. HELOC’s will be end of the Canadian dream as you once knew it. Take that one to the fricking bank DA and miley the realtor sleaze.

#210 Devil's Advocate on 01.22.11 at 10:58 pm

#150 Chris in Langley on 01.22.11 at 3:35 pm

He continues to hold to the statement that his 50 ish wife looks 22, but with no proof. There’s a man with balls. Blabs but can’t back it up.
Let’s see the a photo of this miracle woman.

What, your 1974 issue of Jugs-R-Us just not workin’ for ya anymore?

No problem they’ve got a new drug out that’ll take care of that.

#211 New Era on 01.22.11 at 11:00 pm

Interesting article.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Locals+bought+most+2010+real+estate/4150095/story.html

Looks like only 2 to 3 % of buying are from outside canada. (So the Fable of foriegners lining up to by into canada is a myth.

25% are first time buyers

approxiate 17 % are within canada from Out of Province

but the most interesting figure is the rest is people upgrading or already owning a house buying.

This is the third article I’ve read recently which has those figures. One was an article writtened by an newpaper in the states.

#212 $froma$ia The mother of all Bubbles on 01.22.11 at 11:05 pm

I love it!

#213 Utopia on 01.22.11 at 11:07 pm

The problem is that no opposition political party wants to expose the looming disaster and risk being responsible for a dramatic fall in house prices. The price of political cowardice will be very high. —Murray Dobbin

————————————————————

Absolute brilliance. Now there is a guy who really understands the cracks in the system and why they are growing wider daily while our opposition sits in mute silence and awaits another round of sitting in opposition.

And it will be a long sitting too.

I have no doubts whatsoever that the Conservatives will take a majority this next election. We will all know before summer sets in.

Just watch and see.

#214 charles on 01.22.11 at 11:11 pm

Kenin Oreally, one of CBC’s dragons (sic) is quite the man. His investment fund gets plugged every night at 7pm where you can tune in to hear him say”Canadian seniors should be living in the ditch on the side of the road” or that “corporate taxes need to go to zero and that all government is bad”.
His wit and wisdom peaked when he stated he saw “nothing wrong with spreading a desase if you have the vaccine to sell”. If the show is not scripted this guy is a sick puppy. Now the Newsworld morning blondes can’t get enough of him. Good times.

#215 City Slicker on 01.23.11 at 12:44 am

#195 john m on 01.22.11 at 9:36 pm
Interesting reading>>>”The banks themselves have taken on virtually no new risk. According to CMHC numbers, in the two years from the beginning of 2007 to January 2009, Canadian banks increased their total mortgage credit outstanding by only 0.01%. Fully 90.5% of all growth in total Canadian mortgage credit outstanding since 2007 has been accounted for by Mortgage Backed Securities.
———————————————————-
What does that mean to Mortgage Back Securities vs. CMHC insuring them? How is securitizing them taking the place of insuring, sounds like two different beasts. Anyone? Anyone?

#216 Hoof - Hearted on 01.23.11 at 12:49 am

Self policing by professional groups tends to simply be a perpetuation of the old boys club.

Unless its so blatantly obvious, these groups tend to circle the wagons and protect their own.

The “victims” are one- ofs, the old boys clubs don’t want tit for tat retribution and digging through each others dirty laundry or closets.

Worst are the police….then teachers unions….etc. etc.

#217 45north on 01.23.11 at 12:53 am

Veej: Prices had gone up so much (no where near as much as most of Canada however) that the banks realized they had lent out too much, people realized that they had spent too much and prices started to fall.

there is now a wealth of information that describes in detail just how the housing bubble burst in the US. Here’s an example from 2008:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/02/evidence-of-walking-away-in-wamu.html

This pool is blowing sky high in 8 months flat.

the housing bubble blogs are a court in continuous session

#218 BC Bring Cash on 01.23.11 at 1:03 am

Where have the Aussies gone from this Blog. I miss there commentary about the same issues that we face here in Canada. If your still out there give us a shout. As an ex Aussie I would love to hear you mate’s. Thats all.

#219 kc on 01.23.11 at 1:22 am

217 BC Bring Cash on 01.23.11 at 1:03 am

“Where have the Aussies gone from this Blog.”

They might have had to evacuate their homes? Or maybe they are too busy sand bagging and cleaning up to be here. However I am sure they will be returning shortly.

#220 cellar dweller on 01.23.11 at 2:01 am

@#209 DA
“…..What, your 1974 issue of Jugs-R-Us just not workin’ for ya anymore?

No problem they’ve got a new drug out that’ll take care of that…..”

Hilarious :)-

#221 Junius on 01.23.11 at 3:49 am

#196 DA,

I am still a lawyer but I do not practice. I operate a company instead. However my legal experience does serve me every day.

And yes. I could return to law practice anytime and may one day. My current situation is preferable for now.

#222 Brynn on 01.23.11 at 4:37 am

#188
oh Junius, you are most learned! you predict a surge or listings for the traditionally busy spring market do you? Wow are you ever smart.

Please enlighten us with more predictions! Perhaps…sun will rise tomorrow and set in the evening, it will be zero somewhere in Canada tomorrow, Garth’s upcoming blog will have an irreverant picture…….

#223 tmg on 01.23.11 at 4:48 am

#84 Renting is difficult…even though it makes financial sense. We rented a house in Vancouver for 7 years until one day the owner wanted us out…said she was moving in. 6 months later, she has done some renos and increased the rent by $600. We’re thinking about trying our luck with the Tenancy Board, but it’s tough to prove she didn’t live there. It’s easy for an owner to lie and the onus is on the renter to prove it. Proceed with caution!

#224 Melissa on 01.23.11 at 8:03 am

Here’s an interesting article on the 2011 Demographia Annual Housing Affordability Survey.

http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/01/detailed-report-the-2011-demographia-housing-affordability-survey/

It looks like Vancouver has been pushed down to number three on the infamous “most expensive” housing market list.

#225 Utopia on 01.23.11 at 8:26 am

One of the really worrisome aspects of the very high levels of indebtedness of Canadians is our vulnerability to economic shocks originating from outside our own borders.

Naturally we are all concerned with the health of the US economy as our own is very much dependent on what transpires there. But so-called exogenous shocks can take many other forms.

These are naturally issues of great concern because they represent circumstances or events that take place outside of the sphere of our own border and beyond reach of our domestic policies. We cannot control what others do.

Indeed, it is very easy to slip into the habit of laying all the blame for the developing risks that are apparent in our own country, at the feet of our elected representatives and politicians.

That blaming is childish though because it fails to consider the stresses that our own policy makers face as they try to negotiate our economy through a shark infested pond of risks from abroad.

We are as reactive as any other country on that point.

Unfortunately, there is no unified set of policies that all nations can adhere to in order to maintain balance at a time when discord rules the international scene. We have been lucky in this country to date. But will that good fortune last?

Few would argue that our country could remain aloof of the carnage that might result from the Euro (for example) disintegrating and the economic union there breaking up. We do not even need to be major players in the Euro Union economies to be impacted. We only need to be part of the interconnected web that now represents the global economy.

We all depend on each another and it is not possible for one large member to be sick while improving the health of all the others. In other words, the whole body suffers when one part of the world is in distress and so this calls into question how the illness can be treated for the welfare of everyone.

Banking, credit and currency reform may well be at the top of the agenda. As trade and currency wars loom in defiance of the clear interconnectedness of the global community we are now facing the specter of the body revolting from itself and the breakdown of long established relationships.

But it is more than this.

We may actually be facing a breakdown of the supply chain itself which can only lead to real upheaval in almost every country simultaneously. That old exprssion, “no man is an island” could not be more appropriate at this time.

It is becoming clearer each day that our mutual interests are in danger where we cannot cooperate and the recent discussions between China and the US has brought this to the fore. It is in no countries interest to exclusively put their own needs ahead of their neighbors when what sickens their economy will only lead to hardship for our own. Flag waving is a waste of energy too.

And so it is with some alarm that I am now reading that the Asian economies may indeed be seriously overheating and those circumstances now threaten to bring the global community of nations into a whole new world of unprecedented risks.

And here is where those exogenous shocks I just mentioned could come home to roost and push those Canadians who are heavily in debt, right over the edge.

We in Canada are at particular risk as are the citizens of Australia. Our two countries have gone much further than most other Western nations where personal debt is concerned. As commodity economies we have bet the house on unrelenting demand from abroad, secure in the knowledge that our resources give us invincibility. But are we right?

Like all big problems the world has suffered over the last few years, the one that I am about to relate also revolves around the issues of credit, bubbles and real estate.

It is our favourite topic on this site of course (besides attacking our own Devil’s Advocate daily, even when he is 100% right on some issues) and it all relates to real estate and credit.

You see, China has been propping up the world community through an unprecedented buying and building spree that has resulted in their own economy being more than 60% dependant on construction, real estate speculation and infrastructure build-outs.

They have extended the model of economy building based largely on the extension of credit to the breaking point. They are a growth freight train that is almost out of control. Nor can they easily stop what they are doing or end the process without damaging their own self interests and in the process bringing down the whole global house of cards.

They even build ghost cities to keep the charade going and to keep thier own economy rocking and rolling. How long can that model survive though? It is a serious question of debate that everyone who frequents this site will be familiar with. A bubble is a bubble is it not?

So we, as part of the great trading blocs in the world today, collectively depend on Asian growth to power the worlds community. The cure for all of us has actually become a disease for the Chinese though. Instead of saving the global economy, they have instead built what is arguably the single biggest real estate bubble ever seen as measured by a percentage of their own economy.

In doing so they have put the rest of the body of the global economy into real jeopardy and the only outcome can be a severe contraction everywhere as this mythical saviour and engine of the world comes face to face with a reality all its own.

China has its own worries of course and they are not to be blamed for what lies ahead. They are merely responding as a nation to circumstances outside their own borders and this again brings us back to the discussion of global inter-relatedness and connectivity. But a new worry has arisen.

You see, the Asian miracle itself may now be approaching the limits of its own credit insanity. And inflation is at the root of this sickness.

Some will accuse that US based Quantitative Easing efforts are to blame. That is too simplistic. What America does to stave off the effects of its own domestic deflation in order to ressurect its own economy, while having some impact on China, is only part of the problem.

The Chinese have also embarked on a credit spree of their own making. They have their own home-grown credit bubble and by turns are now aggravating everyone elses troubles. The outcome of policies in Asia are potentially far more damaging than most are giving credence too.

Unfortunately, the combination of two differing yet similar economic policies on two different continents and in two very distinct nations is working in compound effect to magnify the growing problems worldwide and it will magnify the eventual outcome.

Clearly, the US and China cannot afford to work at odds to one another any more. None of us can afford the consequences of policies that only consider domestic concerns because these kinds of policies often work against the cohesion that is necessary for harmony amongst nations.

The cracks in the system are starting to show.

And now we have Hedge Funds openly speculating that the Chinese miracle is about to end. They cannot be far wrong. Unless the basic rules of economics have been suspended, China will eventually go into recession and a major global slowdown will be the natural outgrowth. It cannot be avoided.

And so this is just one reason why someone in Milton or Saskatoon or Calgary or Vancouver needs to shake their sorry heads and ask each other out loud “how safe is it to be mortgaged to the neckline for over 3 decades into the future at a time when America, the richest country in the world, has proven that 45 million of its own people can end up on food stamps and millions more be made essentially homeless through foreclosure, when the biggest financial crisis in the world have not even hit our shores yet”?

When an even bigger financial crisis is still on the horizon.

I no longer think it is an exaggeration to say that a bursting Chinese property bubble and a concurrent collapse of commodity prices and global trade relationships will have a devastating impact on Canadian households that are deeply in debt.

That would be a catastrophe for many and it is my belief that such an event will result in dramatic remedies as countries everywhere seek to shore up their own economies exclusive of the needs of their neighbors. An every man for himself attitude would then prevail and that is a recipe for disaster.

A new reserve currency is just one of the outcomes I anticipate as an outgrowth of a significant China-led recession and resultant crash in dependent nations but the difficult road we will all travel to get there before that currency restructuring arrives will have many shouting for solutions that today are totally unthinkable.

Don’t you just wish I was making all of this up? A few of the articles I read tonight offered insights into where we may be headed. I have posted them below for reference. It is important to understand that much of the current thinking is still speculation but also that some outcomes are inevitable and certain.

Here on this site, we all know that bubbles eventually burst. China is not different. It is not special nor is it immune to the laws of gravity nor basic economic theory. Supply and demand function there exactly as they do here. There is therefore no escape from the inevitable.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8261740/Hedge-funds-bet-China-is-a-bubble-close-to-bursting.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8272388/SocGen-crafts-strategy-for-China-hard-landing.html

Lets all hope that sane heads prevail and those in leadership around the globe can get a handle on all the distortions that keep cropping up in our community of nations. We need banking, credit and currency reform urgently and the G20 may be the body at the inflection point to implement solutions and set out agreements for working out the larger issues before a crippling crisis is upon us all.

There are troubles on the horizon. Big troubles. We need to forget the past and stop with all the wasted energy spent on blame and recriminations. As nations, we need to begin working together and we need to take decisive action now.

Time is short.

#226 john m on 01.23.11 at 8:43 am

#214 City Slicker on 01.23.11 at 12:44 am>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> “Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) fulfill two important investment objectives. First, MBS are completely guaranteed by the federal government through the auspices of the National Housing Act. In fact, these securities are backed by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). Secondly, the yields are often better for these securities than for comparable Government of Canada securities.

MBS are Canada ‘s answer to the American “Freddie Macs.” In Canada, for ease of reference to these securities, traders refer to MBS as “Cannie Maes.”

CMHC insures lenders against defaults on residential mortgages so that lenders can safely issue high-ratio mortgages without the concern of defaults.

The borrower pays a percentage of the financed portion of the purchase price of the home to CMHC for this insurance. About 1 in every 3 houses built in Canada in the last 44 years has a mortgage insured by CMHC.

These insured mortgages are pooled by an issuer ( i.e., a mortgage lender) that in turn sells the pool to the purchasers of MBS. The income for the purchasers of the securities comes from the principal and interest payments made by the mortgagors in the pooled fund. However, the guarantee of timely payment for the income from MBS is made by the federal government agency assuring investors of timely payments.” <<<<<<< (copied off the net) sounds pretty sweet for the banks…not so good for the taxpayers tho

#227 Moneta on 01.23.11 at 9:48 am

But as DA always says: ” It is buyer beware ” The realtor is really there to just unlock and lock the doors, plus point out the function of the rooms.
——-
I don’t understand why they don’t have fixed salaries and tips.

#228 Moneta on 01.23.11 at 9:57 am

Now the Newsworld morning blondes can’t get enough of him. Good times.
————
In French Canadian there’s an expression. Chaque torchon trouve sa guénille. (Each dishrag finds its rag)

When I was young, I thought it was crude but it’s true! No matter how good or bad someone is, they can always find a match somewhere out there!

#229 Moneta on 01.23.11 at 10:01 am

The holy grail of home ownership was also that moment in life when you finally got to tell the bank to take a hike and you could then look forward to your really big plans. Big party usually. I went to more than a few.
———
The banks have been doing well for a while. I think a lot of people out there have not lived a real twilight zone experience with a bank.

When they do, their mindset will change.

#230 Moneta on 01.23.11 at 10:07 am

What does that mean to Mortgage Back Securities vs. CMHC insuring them? How is securitizing them taking the place of insuring, sounds like two different beasts. Anyone? Anyone?
——–
MBS = CHT = insured.

http://www.financialpost.com/scripts/story.html?id=d0c20b90-8b0b-4506-991e-a30a82981cb4&k=20957

#231 Moneta on 01.23.11 at 10:17 am

An every man for himself attitude would then prevail and that is a recipe for disaster.
——-
I feel that the bubble creates an every man for himself attitude and as long as people beleive in the delusion, it gets worse. I want to help people but I am useless, just ridiculed.

When the bubble bursts and people are devastated I know I’ll be the sucker helping them no matter what. My belief is that when people finally see the truth, it won’t be every man for himself. But that means pain.

#232 Ottawa S on 01.23.11 at 10:29 am

#205 OttawaMike

What’s the alternative down there though? We’re looking at a house south of Ottawa that we really like. I mean REALLY like and are considering buying, and it has propane heat. Natural gas isn’t available down there though. Sure, baseboard and solar panels are an option I guess, but that would cost a lot to add in. Or we could cheap out and get electric heaters and solar panels ;)

So you do inspections as a side business? We might be looking for an inspector ;)

#233 Moneta on 01.23.11 at 10:35 am

There are troubles on the horizon. Big troubles. We need to forget the past and stop with all the wasted energy spent on blame and recriminations. As nations, we need to begin working together and we need to take decisive action now.

Time is short.
————-
Americans are exporters of money and the rest of the world has been set up to net export to the US machine. Exporters hold wealth and power, and this clout has been building for 3 decades. They are going to do whatever it takes to keep the status quo.

Yes, over the long term the US needs to export and developing markets need to consume but it won’t happen overnight. It will happen in cycles over a couple of decades.

All countries will devalue their currencies to keep on exporting. The US dollar will bounce back up giving Americans another round of spending. When foreclosures end, Americans will be buying houses at ridiculously low prices and their spending spree will start over but get smaller with every passing cycle.

Of course our purchasing power will be going down over time as developing markets gain purchasing power.

And there will be huge discomforts felt internally despite a new spending spree going on, as groups fight about how best to distribute the wealth.

#234 Ottawa S on 01.23.11 at 12:25 pm

#222 tmg

I’d definitely go through the Tenancy Board. They are always biased towards tenants, away from landlords anyway. I’m sure her invoices for the renos start around the time you moved out. It’s been years since I rented in Vancouver and read the legislation, but in Ontario, I think you would have had first dibs on the renovated place had you had to move out for it to be renovated (at a higher rent – the Board can increase the rent if there were significant capital expenditures). Plus I think you’d be entitled to some expenses paid while you were living elsewhere – but it’s been a while since I read the act here as well so someone can correct me if I’m wrong. Either way, it’s cheaper to just lie about your intentions. I’d take her to the Board for sure!

#235 Silentblogger on 01.23.11 at 12:30 pm

#172 john m on 01.22.11 at 5:50 pm

Wow you have a lot of faith in the guys on the hill. It has echo’s that some all encompassing power is ruling the world…I think not but hey, what do I know?

I know that it’s human nature to have the hubris to think we have a chance of “controlling it all” and when we don’t understand or can’t decipher it all we go for the “Well someone must know” card and play it.

I know that natural reflex is the one responsible for much.

I know that as long as the Liberals have Traitor Iggy at the helm… (aren’t sound bytes a bitch Mike? ;) I have another one that catapulted slick Willy to the top “NO NEW TAXES” )

AND

H stays with his iron fist chokehold on the right/center we’re deadlocked in minority government as no one trusts either leader. (H – doesn’t matter what you do, no one really trusts you ☺)

I know every single bit of data of the last six years points to it.

I know both read this blog. ☺ (boys, if you’re reading this and you REALLY care about the country…SHOVE OFF!! ;) )

I know what Garth says about HOW decisions in backrooms on the hill are made are also VERY accurate. The public crap is just to ferret out the opinions that support the decision if warranted but more to make John Q feel better about the show.

All the boys on the hill can do is put lipstick on the pig and try and sell it. The problem is someone killed the pig and the corpse is bloated and smelly. People notice that sort of thing eventually, even if it’s too late.

I know that I’m off the ladder as I looked back and realized what heights we’ve climbed to and the top of the ladder goes to a dark cloud with lots of thunder and a few flashes…must be quite a show! I know I found a nice sturdy ledge to watch it all from.

What I don’t know about that is if the overhang is enough to protect from the fallout… I think it is but in truth, it’s a theory I’m testing. As always, the numbers won’t lie and I’m sure my fall won’t be as far…

I know people love soup, especially when it’s made with care…mmmmm soup.

I know that silence while sitting on a ledge in the lotus position tending to my pot of soup is magical and all this spouting off is making me uncomfortable.

#236 Dark Sad Monster Bunny on 01.23.11 at 12:35 pm

223 Melissa – woohoo it’s finally here!

http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

Interesting they have included Hong Kong in this years study.

#237 Jeff Smith on 01.23.11 at 12:36 pm

>#125 Devore on 01.22.11 at 1:56 pm
>#66 Jeff Smith
>You know what the Chinese government might do? They
>will pass a law saying that every woman now must bear
>2 child, or else! Think they can’t or not willing to do it?
>They successfully did the opposite with “Have exactly
>one child Or else!”.
>Define “success”. Maybe you should take a trip to
>China, and buy yourself a reality check.

I mean success in that the managed to pull the “one child” policy off. Last talked to couple chinese friends, and they are the only child in the family. Multiple this by millions of family and that’s pretty concrete evidence of policy implementation success.

#238 Mikey the Realtor on 01.23.11 at 12:51 pm

“I am still a lawyer but I do not practice. I operate a company instead. However my legal experience does serve me every day.

And yes. I could return to law practice anytime and may one day. My current situation is preferable for now.”

Congrats, Junius. I see that you finally finished up that online law course and became a big shot in the corp sector. Well, if RE does fall apart like you say I know who I’m coming to for a job. Keep me in mind Jun, will ya.

#239 Junius on 01.23.11 at 12:53 pm

#221 Brynn,

I have predicting RECORD listings and slow sales if you read my posts. This is in response and contrary to those who think there will be a hot sales market.

Read before you become so condescending. Jerk.

#240 Got A Watch on 01.23.11 at 12:55 pm

“@104 DA
“Canadians need a liitle more Mussolini in them”
I’m sure the thousands of Canadian soldiers buried in Italy would be more than happy to disagree with you when you meet them…..Assuming ,of course, you will be allowed in heaven.”

Indeed. Not content with spamming this Blog daily with many proofs of his ego driven idiocy, DA has now crossed into praising fascist war criminal dictators as a model we should follow.

It’s time to get rid of DA. Permanently. Send him to Realt(ho)r(TM) heaven, which would be in the dumpster out back of his office.

My father was a real war hero. During his long career of combat in WWII, his unit, an infantry division of the ‘Free Polish Army’ (part of the British Army) fought through most of the big battles in Italy in ’43 and into ’44. Many of his friends were killed, as were thousands of Canadian and other Allied soldiers, in those fierce battles against entrenched German positions.

So for DA, my sentiments: may you burn in Hell for all eternity.

It’s time to permanently end DA’s time on this Blog, for being personally offensive to anyone who values democracy, freedom and human rights.

Ban him now. Good riddance, scumbag.

#241 City Slicker on 01.23.11 at 1:16 pm

225 john m on 01.23.11 at 8:43 am
#214 City Slicker on 01.23.11 at 12:44 am>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> “Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) fulfill two important investment objectives. First, MBS are completely guaranteed by the federal government through the auspices of the National Housing Act. In fact, these securities are backed by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). Secondly, the yields are often better for these securities than for comparable Government of Canada securities.
———————————————————-
According to CMHC numbers, in the two years from the beginning of 2007 to January 2009, Canadian banks increased their total mortgage credit outstanding by only 0.01%. Fully 90.5% of all growth in total Canadian mortgage credit outstanding since 2007 has been accounted for by Mortgage Backed Securities.
———————————————————
Ah I think I misunderstood the first time. So CMHC still insured mortgages from 2007-2009, only as MBS. Wonder if they sold these around the world like in the US?!? If so this will be dejavu.

#242 kevin on 01.23.11 at 1:28 pm

Looks like the new Demographia report for 2011 is out. Vancouver dropped from the most unaffordable city in the world to number 3. Victoria, Abbortsford, Kelowna, Montreal, Toronto, Calgary are all still in bubble territory with median multiples with 4 or more. When nations have the majority of the cities with ratios of 3 and less they usually do not experience housing bubbles.
Oh, almost forgot, Saskatoon had ratio of 4.3.

#243 OttawaMike on 01.23.11 at 2:15 pm

#231 Ottawa S on 01.23.11 at 10:29 am
Check the NRCAN site.
What my friend is doing to offset his costs temporarily is heat everything up at night, when electricity rates are low, using portable ceramic heaters. Daytime he shuts everything down and keeps the propane system at standby. We are in negotiations with Enbridge to gas his house up.
Custom builders install propane sometimes because they know Nat gas is coming to the street but often they do it because it saves them money. Homeowner rents the tank and regulator, no large electrical service or wires to connect during construction.
Propane fuel in this town is a monopoly 90% controlled by on multinational.

Alternates are: geothermal heat pump(high upfront costs, lower lifespan), Forced air electric with air source heat pump for shoulder season, hi efficiency oil, wood/electric/oil combination furnace, wood pellet, solar hydronic with high capacity heat sink(high upfront costs), wood stoves.
Anything but baseboard and /or propane.

Propane is also the most dangerous fuel by far.

#244 Mister Obvious on 01.23.11 at 2:17 pm

#239 Got a Watch

I’m with you for the most part in your response to DA’s ridiculous statement about Mussolini.

My father was also a WWII hero. I know this, and so do millions of Dutch nationals whom he helped liberate from brutal Nazi occupation during the Normandy invasion. He faced months of fierce hand to hand combat in the streets. Like all soldiers who see this kind of action he came back profoundly changed. Moreover, he returned to a country where less honourable men eventually took charge. Specifically, the same bungling non-participants whose bacon he had saved overseas. (The astute reader will notice this tradition is alive and well today).

Where we part ways on the DA issue is that, as an atheist, I don’t accept the existence of heaven or hell in any metaphysical sense. It brings me no satisfaction to speculate on what ‘mister-drunk-already-in-the-morning’ might experience upon arrival in either mythical place. If DA ever gets his righteous comeuppance it will have to occur in our lifetimes, right here on mother earth.

Perhaps it already has.

#245 Kaganovich on 01.23.11 at 2:21 pm

#104 DA

So ya, when it comes to Gandhi or Mussolini… I do think Canadian men could use a little more Mussolini. GET IT NOW Kaganovich?

Are you crazy? Publicly endorsing some type of false machismo symbolized by an Italian fascist dictator who led a brownshirt type crackdown on democratic practices before ultimately pulling his country into total war. What I get is that you aren’t thinking clearly, or you have little respect for the consequences of rabid nationalist jingoism and its effects on young people struggling in depressed economy. Why don’t you put on your hiking boots and goose step into some lake?

#246 squidly77 on 01.23.11 at 2:22 pm

#197 – edmonton mortgage broker

we are salespeople and hustlers. in my father’s generation, only scrubs that couldn’t cut it in a real job, became realtors. and i personally was started my career placing mortgages in a time when you didn’t need ANY license or qualification whatsoever. you should have seen my 101 class back in 2002. full of immigrants and taxi drivers who couldn’t even speak english. scary….

Yup.

#247 Pr on 01.23.11 at 2:30 pm

Don t be surprise if the sales jump again in the next 3-6 months, all of those genius of real estate finance who s got 0$ dollars two buy a house ( with the 5% cash back from the bank) will make all those home owner fill smart soon.

#248 HouseBuster on 01.23.11 at 2:33 pm

#239 Got A Watch
Ban him now. Good riddance, scumbag.
——————————

Agreed.

#249 Stevermt on 01.23.11 at 2:39 pm

There have been many times on this pathetic blog that I have typed a rant because I was reacting to someone else’s narrow mindedness, ignorance, insanity etc. , only to erase it because its not worth it to stoop to their level..sometimes.
I think that others should consider that once in awhile…(let me know if you do the same)…especially some of the aspiring novelists here. who just go on and on. Maybe you could just go and exercise, cook or have sex( sorry about the ED.. DA)..to get it out of your system.

So I think I’ll just pop my INSANITY dvd in now and sweat my ass off for an hour and then give that grin to my honey…and then watch the Football game.
I love Sunday afternoons………

#250 Silentblogger on 01.23.11 at 3:00 pm

Oh, and I know in the week long course taught by the president of CAAMP and the vice-president & ethics chair, it was prefaced by a speech saying something like: we’re not here to teach you how to be a mortgage broker, we’re hear to teach you how to pass the exam for your license. My friend was shocked. also: no mark, just a pass or fail. If you were on the bubble, the instructors would “verbally question” you. Her table mate was one. From what she could glean from said desk mate, the “questions” were structured to push it over the line (whatever line that was!! ;) )

AMP – YOUR Accredited Mortgage Professional

Thought that was relevant considering some of the discussions on the board.

#251 john m on 01.23.11 at 3:18 pm

#234 Silentblogger on 01.23.11 at 12:30 pm

#172 john m on 01.22.11 at 5:50 pm

Wow you have a lot of faith in the guys on the hill. It has echo’s that some all encompassing power is ruling the world…I think not but hey, what do I know?<<<<<<<< I hope you don't think i have even the remotest bit of faith in the guys on the hill ..because in fact i have none and have not had any since the day Garth stood up for the people and tried to stop this sub-prime boondoggle …not a single one of our elected officials from any party supported him……. i think they all need to be replaced. The feeble attempts by the opposition to stop Mr."H' are a joke….the attack ads could be better prepared by a public school student….considering the ammo that is out there from "H" and his followers escapades. Certainly makes me wonder?????

#252 Moneta on 01.23.11 at 3:23 pm

City Slicker on 01.23.11 at 1:16 pm
——
1 trillion in mortgages outstanding.

500B insurance in force
400B guarantee

See page 18:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/about/anrecopl/upload/CMHC_AR2009.pdf

See page 70:

“In response to industry consultations in 2009, CMHC will focus on a number of enhancements to its securitization programs in 2010. These include developing the structure and issuance strategy for a potential foreign currency CMB and a Commercial Paper component within the CMB program, a long-term solution for home equity line of credit (HELOC) securitization and multi-seller NHA MBS pool structures!

#253 Moneta on 01.23.11 at 3:27 pm

#231 Ottawa S on 01.23.11 at 10:29 am
——-
Our new neighbors downsized and sold the big house in the area I think you are talking about… they couldn’t keep up with the heating bills. High propane price was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

#254 jess on 01.23.11 at 3:28 pm

Dogman

“Since when did capitalism become the end in itself.”
The image of an Ouroboros came into my mind.;)
ARe u 2 headed or of the multi-headed kind?

By Christopher Condon and Miles Weiss
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) — Cerberus Capital Management LLC is in negotiations with the largest shareholder of Pre-Paid Legal Services Inc. for a possible buyout of the company.
===================

I’ll gladly pay ya Tuesday economics?
Betting on Justice: Borrowing to Sue
Large banks, hedge funds and private investors hungry for new and lucrative investments are bankrolling other people’s lawsuits, pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into medical malpractice claims, divorce battles and mass suits against pharmaceutical companies — all in the hope of sharing in the potential winnings.
http://www.publicintegrity.org/projects/
================

PIPEDA
Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents

“Banks should not share clients’ mortgage information without consent when asked by other financial institutions trying to collect on a judgment debt, ruled the Ontario Court of Appeal. Such disclosure would violate the Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents Act.”

Ruling prohibits banks from sharing mortgage data

Citi Cards Canada Inc. v. Pleasance
http://laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/UpdateNotice/index.html?rp14=%2Fen%2FP-8.6%2Findex.html
=======================================
Written by Andi Balla
Posted Date: January 10, 2011 http://www.ontariocourts.on.ca/decisions/2011/2011ONCA0003.htm
http://www.canadianlawyermag.com/ruling-prohibits-banks-from-sharing-mortgage-data.html

“Since when did capitalism become the end in itself.”

#255 Dontcallmeshirley on 01.23.11 at 3:51 pm

Non-bank lenders (public companies like MCAN, Xceed etc.) have significantly reduced securitization of mortgages into Canada Housing Canadian Mortgage Bonds.

Their behaviour changed because IFRS accounting rules were adopted for 2010. The securitization reduction (minus 16%) roughly accounts for the lower real estate volumes we saw across Canada in the second half of 2010.

But you know what? There’s still plenty of people happy taking sub 3% yields. CMBs, non-bank lenders, big 6 banks, all have no problem raising 5 yr money from the “bond market” at rates of between 2.5% and 2.8%. Take a look at public releases of debt issues to confirm.

The 20% reduction in transaction volumes we’ve seen is all that will happen to real estate while lenders can raise cheap money at will.

What do you suppose will make people hold out for more than 2.5% to 2.8% when they deposit money with banks and non-banks?

#256 Dodged-A-Bullit-in Alberta on 01.23.11 at 3:54 pm

Greetings: A New Year wish for Garth come true:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/21/squirrel-appreciation-day-competition_n_812213.html#s227748&title=Godzilla_Eats_Squirrel

#257 mid-Ontario on 01.23.11 at 3:56 pm

Had lunch Friday with a couple who moved almost two years ago leaving behind their house in the heart of cottage country. They almost sold the house left behind last year but no action this year at all. They may try to sell their new house if the old house does not sell soon 2011.

My observation – second home sales in cottage country have slowed considerably. Those trying to sell are steadfast in hanging on to the original price as long as it does not hurt their immediate financial state. There is no talk of lowering the prices or potential loss of using the money from selling at a lower price in order to use that money to make money.

Two things that keep the dream afloat. MSM stories on rosy sale prices (still strong selling prices though far fewer sales) and the very real memories of the market meltdown in 2008 (can’t make money in the market).

Until things change in mindset, the selling prices will remain firm with many sellers and I expect, the houses will sit.

Reasonably well off boomers sitting on second homes will not start the decline but when it starts many will suffer financially more than they understand today.

#258 RickOShea on 01.23.11 at 4:08 pm

trying to deep throat the greatest amount of debt possible before the March 18th deadline

Ah – I believe I can now guess the etymology of the word “sucker”.

#259 Silentblogger on 01.23.11 at 4:10 pm

#248 john m on 01.23.11 at 3:18 pm

No not at all – I get the sarcastic side. It was:

They know exactly what they are doing and are trying day by day to prevent a crash on Mr. H’s watch until he manages to force an election and retain power…

That gave rise to my comment. I feel H’s megalomania has made his vision cloudy and we’re seeing a reactionary stance…Knowing exactly what they’re doing? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! MUWAHAAAAHAHAHAHAHA!!! sorry, tearing up again!!!

I think as things stand we have more split vote minority/coalition crap ahead of us and your suggestion of all of them out on their buts? I agree.

#260 Brynn on 01.23.11 at 4:21 pm

oh Junius! temper temper….
i did take an antacid and read your post and yes, you predict RECORD listings….of course there will be RECORD listings in the upcoming weeks, historically the spring market always has RECORD listings…of course you think sales will slow, everyone on here thinks sales will slow, however, you’ve all been dead wrong about areas that anyone wants to live in…..

and tell me, you read blogs all day filled with ancedotal evidence and lame conjecture…who makes you or anyone on here (garth included) qualified to make predictions?

hold on…i feel a prediction coming… you will call me a $#$*#$(#)$* this time…. he he he

#261 Devil's Advocate on 01.23.11 at 4:34 pm

#239 Got A Watch on 01.23.11 at 12:55 pm

It’s time to permanently end DA’s time on this Blog, for being personally offensive to anyone who values democracy, freedom and human rights.

Ban him now. Good riddance, scumbag.

Yes your comments do ring true with your battle cry pro democracy, freedom and human rights. Ban the bastard for his not saying that which we want to hear. Or better ban the fascist prick for saying what we think we heard.

Any time Garth wants me gone from HIS blog I will gladly oblige. In the meantime I will post as often and in what ever manner I see fit to assist those of such narrow mind they could look through a single keyhole with both eyes that there is a whole world out there.

And on the matter of war;

Give me the money that has been spent in war and I will clothe every man, woman, and child in an attire of which kings and queens will be proud. I will build a schoolhouse in every valley over the whole earth. I will crown every hillside with a place of worship consecrated to peace. ~Charles Sumner

The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations. ~David Friedman

“There are no atheists in foxholes” isn’t an argument against atheism, it’s an argument against foxholes. ~James Morrow

Draft beer, not people. ~Attributed to Bob Dylan

War would end if the dead could return. ~Stanley Baldwin

Need I quote more?

You take your glory in the wars your forefathers fought, I will take mine in doing whatever I must to save my children from ever having to experience war.

Morons – yes I must stoop so low as to namecall you just what you are… Hypocritical, inglorious morons.

#262 confused and a little crazed on 01.23.11 at 4:40 pm

Hi guys,

I have a different scenario for u to ponder ” What IF”,
QE2 holds after 600 Billion stilmulus the world regains it footing aand surges ahead b/c the emerging markets India/ brazil/ China keep moving forward strong. The stock prices could shoot up another 20-30 % this year and albeit slower next 2-3 year at gains 7-12 %. then the investment money would flow from real esate to stocks again. Smart money always moves to what coming next …not what already been. Will real estate drop…maybe just a little and stay there for a long, long time. 7-8 years on little or no growth.

hmmn possible?
What do u think?

#263 Devil's Advocate on 01.23.11 at 4:45 pm

The pioneers of a warless world are the [youth] who refuse military service. ~Albert Einstein

#264 Utopia on 01.23.11 at 4:46 pm

#248 Stevermt

“There have been many times on this pathetic blog that I have typed a rant because I was reacting to someone else’s narrow mindedness, ignorance, insanity etc. , only to erase it because its not worth it to stoop to their level….”

————————————————————

Don’t be such a coward Stevermt. Just speak your mind….like DA said yesterday, grow up and “Grow a set”.

#265 Devil's Advocate on 01.23.11 at 4:47 pm

You want to speak of the glory of war? Let’s speak of the glory of war. What is so glorious about having your bowels blown out laying in the dirt dying as you frantically try to literally pull yourself back together, all in the name of some old farts political agenda? You mixed up sick fools.

We are way, way off topic here and this will be the end of it. — Garth

#266 confused and a little crazed on 01.23.11 at 4:55 pm

addendum to my post 261 #

real estate goes down b/c mortgage rules changes plus we all know int rates will increase maybe 1 whole % this year due to inflation and demand from other countries

of course thet will be others who completely over extend themselves with LOC/ credit cards etc…it’s human nature

#267 Devil's Advocate on 01.23.11 at 4:59 pm

90% of the North American population believes in a God. Why would I want to piss them off by telling them Jesus is just Santa Claus for Adults?

Atheism; the arrogant belief that the entire billion galaxy universe was not created for us.
War…
O Lord our God, help us tear their soldiers to bloody shreds with our shells; help us to cover their smiling fields with the pale forms of their patriot dead; help us to drown the thunder of the guns with the shrieks of their wounded, writhing in pain; help us to lay waste their humble homes with a hurricane of fire; help us to wring the hearts of their unoffending widows with unavailing grief; help us to turn them out roofless with their little children to wander unfriended the wastes of their desolated land in rags and hunger and thirst, sports of the sun flames of summer and the icy winds of winter, broken in spirit, worn with travail, imploring Thee for the refuge of the grave and denied it. ~Mark Twain, “The War Prayer”

#268 Timing is Everything on 01.23.11 at 5:10 pm

#192 Devore

There is nothing wrong with commissioned sales, IF, you know the sales dude/ette personally. OR, at the very least, they are highly recommended by a trusted person you know.

That is the only way they should be considered IMO. We trusted our children with with our realtor and used his services three times. I used a mortgage broker recommended by a trusted work colleague and the service was top notch.

Same standards apply for ‘fee based’ sales folks.
They still will have to pass my the trust test. And I ain’t one to ‘brown’ up to anyone, but I’m pretty sure if Garth recommended a ‘fee based’ financial planner to us…that would pass the ‘sniff’ test, for me any way.

Maybe Garth can confirm this statement:
“In Canada, financial planners are required to have obtained a designation from a credible financial body, such as CSI or the FPSC.” [wiki]

#269 Devil's Advocate on 01.23.11 at 5:12 pm

Do you honestly truly believe everything you have been told? Do you believe it enough to send your child to a most probable horrific death in defence of it?

If so, clearly you are Greater Fools than they the subject of this blog.

#270 Timing is Everything on 01.23.11 at 5:32 pm

#201 Moneta

Competition is mostly always bad for the vendor, and mostly always good for customer. Pardon the grammER.

If a vendor has a very crappy competitor, it’s actually good for him/her (damn I hate having to do the him/her thingy) as the customer will gladly go back to the first vendor. That is why I say ‘mostly always’. But over-all wrt competition…It’s a good thing (Martha Stewart quote? I gotta get out more)

#271 Jim on 01.23.11 at 5:42 pm

I wouldn’t pay over 1 million dollars to own a home in NO FUN VANCOUVER. Its called NO FUN VANCOUVER for a reason.

#272 tiger_baby on 01.23.11 at 5:52 pm

>You take your glory in the wars your forefathers fought …

I thought the glory was in the sacrifice made to stop the likes of Mussolini who brought war upon us??

#273 john m on 01.23.11 at 5:58 pm

#258 Silentblogger on 01.23.11 at 4:10 pm….:-) oh yes a fine fix our country has been put into in just a few short years…imagine if we have a U.S. style meltdown (and its more than possible)…CMHC (us taxpayers) could be on the hook for more than the federal debt since confederation, considering our debt now stands at around 556 billion (and rising) and i read than CMHC has guaranteed mortgages in excess of 600 billion…….ah yes “things are different here”

#274 eddy on 01.23.11 at 6:09 pm

Screw the National Debt – You Are Not the Nation!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK6SS4ETHWQ&feature=player_embedded

#275 SAD on 01.23.11 at 6:16 pm

As we lost good manufacturing export business’s (real wealth creation) and jobs thanks to so called free trade (not healthy trade) the Federal Bankers at the urging of various government representatives from Western democracies tinkered with the credit markets and various rules to create construction jobs and develop consumerism. So here we are a little closer to another downward turning point.
Housing wealth creation for some at the expense of others (mainly young). Did not turn out so well in other countries. I forget though we are different in Canada. What race eats it young again?
Wonder what rabbit is going to be pulled out of the hat next by our wise world rulers? One thing is for sure they will be just fine. And that is apparently is all that matters with the practice of Social Darwinism. Every man for himself philosophy.

#276 Live Within Your Means on 01.23.11 at 6:23 pm

Tried to find some bills today to return some tiles, etc. Couldn’t find them but came across some shoe boxes filled with old 25+ yr cards, 20 yr old tax returns, etc. Got rid of lots of stuff but some brought back great memories.

In one of the boxes found a let & insurance payment for my birth in ’47. Total bill $106.00. for 10 days in hospital and tests. My Mom kept lots of papers :-).

Also found Dr.’ s bank statement (Philadelphia National Bank) from 1952 , including about 15 cheques. I originally found it in a top drawer of a beautiful 6 piece mahogany bedroom set I bought about 25+ yrs ago at a fair. Unfortunately, a few years later we had a fire and I lost 2 pieces & lots of clothes, etc. Ins. co. tried to screw us but my DH argued and we won to an extent. But really, you never do as you can’t replace memories.

#277 Live Within Your Means on 01.23.11 at 6:46 pm

#256 mid-Ontario on 01.23.11 at 3:56 pm

Many years ago my DH asked me if i’d be interested in a country property that someone he knew was selling -$50K. No way, said I. Just another house to clean, and pay taxes on and maintenance.

A neighbour across the street has a cottage on the Northumberland strait. They have spent many K’s just to put huge boulders to protect their shoreline/property in the last few years. They’ve lost at least 5- 10 ft of property in the last 10 years.

#278 jess on 01.23.11 at 6:51 pm

#251 Moneta

There are other positive objectives CMHC facilitated over $122 million in export sales for its key clients.
This means that almost 1,350 jobs for Canadians were either maintained or created. CMHC-Facilitated Sales of $122.1 million for Key Export Clients in 2009 ($M)

Highest – 66.5% mexico
Page 35/37

… concrete is the material for building in china/ low in trees …didn’t Canada+partners go over and build a wood framed school (collapsed from an earthguake)

…”to help bring energy-efficient Canadian housing to the U.K. This partnership has resulted in the construction of more than 700 Super E® homes in the United Kingdom over the past eight years and an estimated return on investment to the Canadian economy of more than $50 million.
Consulting revenues impacted by global recession
The global recession and fiscal pressures resulted in many foreign governments delaying or cancelling their plans to undertake projects aimed at developing more efficient and effective housing markets. Several
multi-year contracts, representing approximately $3 million in consulting revenues for CMHC, did not proceed as planned.
In 2009, CMHC helped the Russian government develop a business plan tointroduce a mortgage insurance system that would make homeownership
more affordable for young families in Russia. A similar project was completed for the Government of South Africa. It is anticipated that both the Russian and South African governments will be seeking CMHC’s assistance during the implementation phase of these projects.
In Saudi Arabia, CMHC provided housing policy advice to address housing shortages in that country. We are also assisting a bank in Saudi Arabia
with plans to introduce residential mortgage lending and construction finance. In Syria, we delivered a workshop on international best practices
in mortgage lending to help the country in its efforts to modernize its mechanisms for accessing housing.

http://www.cmhc.ca/en/corp/about/anrecopl/upload/CMHC_AR2009_MDA-PerformanceAgainstObjectives.pdf

#279 Pete on 01.23.11 at 6:58 pm

The housing downturn is starting to take it toll as people who are close to going bankrupt will choose to burn their problems away. you are starting to see more and more “house” fires. This seems to happen during a housing crash. You remember the almost daily fires in Toronto and surrounding GTA in 2008. Well its here again.

Toronto house under construction burns
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/toronto-house-under-construction-burns-20110123-065629-380.html

#280 Pete on 01.23.11 at 7:06 pm

Many worried realtors on garth’s blog making up stories as the housing crash continue to get worse. With sales down over 20% for the last 5/6 months and now mortgage rules have changed meaning a much smaller pool of greaterfools with no money able to buy. You will see more and more house “fires” as the housing market gets worse. It’s going to get real bad real soon. Look in the media for alot of house “fires”

#281 realpaul on 01.23.11 at 7:20 pm

OK OK…..everything thats said on TV and printed in the papers is true ! I want to believe !!!!!! I really want the talking heads on the 6 o’clock news to be relatable because I need friends and social solaced desperatley enough to forget that TV is purely an arm of the advertising industry .

Television shows are actually social services products produced to help me with my depression and help me think thoughts which otherwise wouldn’t have occured to me. Without my TV friends I couldn’t bear to be with myself when I came home from my menial employment.

The talking heads laugh and burble with each other on camera and the activity lets me imagine that I’m not only immersersed in the conversation but actually participating…..part of society instead. Weeeeeeeeee.

I feel less lonely and when they face the camera at the end of the show and tell me they care about me and wish me a good night. I am made real. TV is God.THE PRESENTERS ARE HIS ANGELS.

Sorry if I gave anyone the impression that TV and the newsmedia were a fabricated dishonesty. Of course none of it is contrived……..look theres a bunny cloud….how nice……zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

#282 Fractional Reserve on 01.23.11 at 7:38 pm

#224 Utopia.
Your post is excellent and very much a correct analysis of what is about to happen. The 2008 crisis was the beginning of a severe global meltdown and the past two years of patchwork by the world’s central banks and governments have been merely a delay in what is going to be an extremely difficult time starting in 2011.
Real estate won’t be the only asset getting hammered. Global equity markets are going to tank as well. Markets are discounting mechanisms. Keep an eye on them in the weeks to come.

#283 Junius on 01.23.11 at 7:59 pm

#259 Brynn,

Record listings in comparison to other years at this time of year. Do you want that in crayon?

Here is my prediction that I am certain of – You and the rest of the delusional bulls will continue to come here and post drivel long after it is clear to everyone that this bull market is over.

#284 Hoof Hearted on 01.23.11 at 8:22 pm

Junius:

Because of your revelation of being a Lawyer, I now have a fiduciary duty to make public knowledge the Devils’ Dictionary ( Public Domain ) via Ambrose Bierce.

http://www.richardgingras.com/devilsdictionary/l.html

LAWYER, n. One skilled in circumvention of the law.

#285 bridgepigeon on 01.23.11 at 8:46 pm

How about limiting the # of posts per blog per individual to __? Anyone?

#286 Devil's Advocate on 01.23.11 at 8:50 pm

#270 tiger_baby on 01.23.11 at 5:52 pm
>You take your glory in the wars your forefathers fought …

I thought the glory was in the sacrifice made to stop the likes of Mussolini who brought war upon us??

al-Qaida, I am sure, would have said the same of Bush.

Who is right and who is wrong depends which side you are on. That is not to say I would be on the side of Mussolini. Not at all. And that some here extended my comments as to mean so is… typical. This is a literal crowd with little to no sense of Ha Ha. I get it.

I suggest apologizing would be the better road to take. — Garth

#287 Utopia on 01.23.11 at 8:57 pm

#281 Fractional Reserve and Moneta……

Thanks for reading all the way through.

I do appreciate your comments. You will likely have perceived that what I was suggesting without saying so in words is that global currency reform may be inevitable.

I believe it was China’s own finance minister who recently stated something along the lines that a new world reserve currency should be pegged to something objective. The Goldbugs naturally have seized on this as redemption and proof that we might one day see a new gold backed currency.

I disagree. I do however believe that in the future there will be a resource and commodity component in the make-up of a single unified currency that is universally accepted.

Europe recognized the need for currency union long ago as a means to level the many regional variables amongst their trading bloc and as a means to improve and simplify commerce and inter-country financial relationships.

Errors were made in its implementation though and we now have an opportunity to learn from those mistakes in formulating a new single currency.

I feel certain of the inevitability of such a change going forward but it will take willful leaders and the need for change. Nothing is likely to happen before a crisis forces everyones hands.

#288 rentersrule on 01.23.11 at 9:06 pm

Hey Junius,

Although she did invest the time for 4 weeks and the $200 to buy the answers to pass her real estate license test…..Brynn wil be back at her usual day job slinging draft and redeeming pulltabs in no time….. RE industry people slime these boards because they are desperate to keep the fools lining up….but the party is so over….. all over but the crying…..

#289 Jeff Smith on 01.23.11 at 9:22 pm

>#33 Silentblogger on 01.22.11 at 12:45 am
>Tonight the National had a report on the bidding war for
>a crack shack…The List? 1,088,000…The final?
>1,533,000. I laughed to the point of tears. Silence? Hard
>to maintain in this kind of insanity…snicker…tee hee…
>mmf…MUWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Oh
>shit! I think I might have just peed myself just a little
>bit!!!!

nah, don’t think about it too much and don’t laugh too hard. Maybe the buyer is laughing at you, us. Because we don’t have that kind of money which he/she is toying around with. Imagine for a second that 1,533,000 is just pocket change for some rich person from china. So even the day after the bidding he realize it’s a bad buy, bummer, just spent some pocket change on a stupid crack shack. No big deal, maybe he can make that money back in a week or two. We only think it’s a big deal because we don’t have that kind of money, at least I don’t. Maybe he, or she(?) is laughing at me right now. Ahaha, you don’t have $1.5million to flush down the casino with… nahnahnahnah I don’t feel that pity for the chap, chappette.

#290 Patz on 01.23.11 at 9:33 pm

#280 realpaul
Jeez, can it will ya, yer givin’ me the willies. Next you’ll be implying Oprah’s not … not authentic! She took all those freakin’ people to Oz din’t she? And Maury, Jerry an those guys, I suppose they’re not our friends? You are some kinda nasty cynic, ya know that?!

#291 Jeff Smith on 01.23.11 at 9:43 pm

>#43 Mark on 01.22.11 at 1:32 am
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Money/1239849460/ID=1758092890

>There’s that Vancouver crack shack story.

Luv the story. Didn’t know Canada is that desirable place to buy a house. Nope! I restrained myself from laughing. There…

#292 TheBigLebowski on 01.23.11 at 9:55 pm

#224 UT
The sooner people realize that we are living through a carefully orchestrated script the better off they can prepare. As Greenspan use to say, creative destruction was part of the economic order. That criminal long ago sold out to the banking agenda and was tasked with artificially suppressing interest rates. Order out of chaos is another way of interpreting what he meant. Out of this global economic car crash will come a solution. But that solution will be offered by the same criminal bankers who engineered the credit time bomb. Control of monetary policy will be centralized in the IMF which is a completely non democratically formed establishment. Interest rates and policy will be dictated to countries by this inner circle of bankers. Economic sovereignty will be lost as we are moved into a post democratic society ruled by self appointed experts and lobbyists . A system of usury will be blanketed on nations where the debt owed to the IMF can never be repaid.. As has happened with Greece where whole Islands were sold off to private bakers to cover their debt. Similar auctioning off of a countries wealth will become common place.
With governments globally no longer representing their voters, but instead controlled by lobbyist and private think tanks. Voting one party out to simply allow another to take over is no different than replacing team A with team B. The strings behind government never change. Until people wake up and come to grips with the fact that we are being herded in a carefully planned direction, nothing will change.

#293 Davinci on 01.23.11 at 10:09 pm

Remind me where money comes from?
Oh yes banks, when people go into debt.

So if people are defaulting, isn’t what makes the bond good is what makes the money good?

I mean if the money is made from a debt and the person must earn the money back plus interest doesn’t that give the money value?

Canada’s Monetary System
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYRdlegDYwo

#294 Silentblogger on 01.23.11 at 10:09 pm

#288 Jeff Smith on 01.23.11 at 9:22 pm

Huh?

The guy that bought Enron at it’s peak, the most expensive Edsel, Pontiac Aztec, Swampland in Florida, Bre-X at it peak, DELUXE pet rock, Segway, etc, etc,… was a fool and should be laughed at…just human nature there. It matters little about how much green you have in your pocket and there is little to over think here…It’s still foolish.

#295 tiger_baby on 01.23.11 at 10:11 pm

> al-Qaida, I am sure, would have said the same of Bush.

I don’t recall anyone here saying that we all need to have a little more Bush, do you?

I find the weaseling maneuvers troubling, coming from a self proclaimed “professional” among realtors.

#296 Patz on 01.23.11 at 10:20 pm

#224 Utopia

Well that was long but I got through it. However at the end I’m scratching my head. You referred to many problems in very general terms, stuff most of us are aware of, then in conclusion you say we need to “take decisive action.”

That’s the rub isn’t it. What decisive action? QE 3–11? Any action as long as it’s decisive? Sorry to be flip but really, do you think anyone knows what to do? I don’t. I think whatever ‘decisive action’ is taken will only make things worse. A grizzly bear is chasing you, you are running away as fast as you can. What is your solution? Run faster?