Delusions

It doesn’t take much of a drive along London streets to get the picture. Strip malls with empty storefronts. Industrial units for sale. Massive factories on the edge of town with weathering ‘Available’ signs.

Of course it’s worse down the road in St. Thomas, where the sprawling Talbotville Ford plant will be shuttered this time next year. No jobs. Failing retail. In one month, the London area – once a hotbed of auto-related manufacturing activity, and a university and hospital hub – lost a staggering 2,000 jobs. So far in 2010, the toll has been 8,000, driving the unemployment rate to almost 9%.

So is it any wonder that in this quintessential middle-class, white-bread, ivy-league Canadian city that real estate sales have been on the slide every month since June? Hardly. What was surprising happened a few days ago, when out of the real estate doom emerged a one-month uptick in deals – 35 more than last November, in a city of 400,000 – and the reaction was ebullient.

“A real estate rebound,” trumpeted the London Free Press. “Housing hope: After a tough, four-month losing streak, London-area home sales jump 6.2% in November from last year.” Local cartel boss Richard Thyssen commented immediately: “I think we are in a balanced market — we should see a decent spring.”

What sweet nectar hope is. And how useful to have a drooling media pooch along for the walk.

About as frozen and hopeless as London this week is Regina. When I snuck into Earl’s on Albert Street a couple of weeks ago to see that waitress with the sparkly top, I got to talking with a guy trying to sell his house. “How the hell,” he asked me, “can there be barely 200 houses a month selling in this godforsaken place, and prices keep going up?”

And he’s right. In all of November, but 220 houses changed hands, down again from 2009. However the average price is now $265,600, up 8% from last year, and a $40,000 premium over living in London – which has twice the population (and topography).

Melissa agrees. She just wrote me this: “I’m fed up with hearing realtors and not-so-objective reporters saying “Regina/Saskatchewan is bucking the trend!”  If I hear that line one more time I’ll throw up.  I would like to have a bigger place but there’s no way I’d pay ~$300,000 for a simple bungalow in Regina (especially considering what the prices were in Regina ~4 yrs ago).”

But she must be mistaken! Here’s what Conference Board senior economist Rob Wiebe just told the Regina Leader-Post: “It’s a good time to look for a house because the market is balanced.”

Added the so-called journalist (clearly hoping for a job in the ad department): “That reasonable balance between the supply of houses on the market and potential buyers looking for homes creates an opportunity for sellers to get a reasonable price and for the customers as well to get a reasonable price…”

Of course, I could make the same comments about Vancouver, Calgary or Toronto, where real estate sales have been dismal since late Spring, where listings have diminished and prices increased as a smaller pool of fools jumps in. This is not about local markets, but rather the disquieting state of human self-delusion, aided and abetted by the newly-pliant and uncritical Canadian media.

As this blog argues from time to time, the real estate market is unsustainable with regard to prices. Household debt levels alone preclude any measurable increase in valuations until jobs and salaries catch up. That will take years. And over that time, both taxes and interest rates will swell, just as the wheezing, tube-infested Boomers start their housing exodus. In other words, we have passed the Best Before date on your digs.

There were similar moments in America. But they were largely unnoticed, especially in the mainstream media, when reporters ran to the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, instead of Peter Schiff. We know how that turned out.

Today a quarter of all US homeowners with a mortgage are under water and another 2.4 million families have less than 5% equity left. If they sold, they’d have nothing. There are eight million bank-owned houses yet to hit the market. Prices are still tumbling and it’s widely agreed the second leg of the property crash has begun. It’s estimated homeowners have lost $6 trillion in equity since the slide started in 2006. At the same time, total mortgage debt has barely budged – despite the lowest interest rates in history.

Now that there’s talk in Washington of ending mortgage interest deductibility, the housing market’s in rigor. Meanwhile a new report shows that half the countries in the world – pretty much all the developed ones – had negative real estate growth in the third quarter of this year.

But, of course, London is different. And Regina. Everybody wants to move there.

222 comments ↓

#1 Joy on 12.06.10 at 11:16 pm

How dare workers insist on a living wage! How dare workers demand a fair share of the prosperity from their productive effort. How dare we try to plan for a better future for our children! How dare we challenge those who use their power, money and influence to direct the affairs of government against the common good.

May future generations forgive us for waiting so long to hold our leaders accountable for the massive travesty which is capitalism – a dysfunctional system which rewards greed and punishes altruism. A system which rapes the earth, concentrates wealth in the hands of a few while leaving innocent children to starve in the streets.

A Resource-Based (REALITY-based) economic paradigm is the ONLY way for us to survive as a species. See the Venus Project website to learn more: http://www.thevenusproject.com

#2 MikeT on 12.06.10 at 11:27 pm

Uh-huh… Good for sellers AND good for buyers… Reminds me that fairy tale about the vendor in ancient times selling shields and pikes and was advertising them like this: here are the best shields in the world – no pike can penetrate them (and demonstrating it) and the best pikes in the world – they can penetrate any shield (and demonstrating it too)…

#3 dd on 12.06.10 at 11:28 pm

….it’s widely agreed the second leg of the property crash has begun… [in the US]…

If this is the case the banks are going to roll over again state side. Quantitative easing to infinity; it is a form of government support for the banks.

#4 Junius on 12.06.10 at 11:30 pm

Thanks Garth. It has been the theme running through my life experience the past few weeks as well. It is different here…it is different this time. Vancouver is screwed but we are not. Toronto is different. No bubble here.

We are all taking a PHD level course in human nature as we watch this unfold in slow motion.

#5 Junius on 12.06.10 at 11:34 pm

Good to see the Confidence Bored of Canada out to support the pumping. These jokers have been wrong so many times I have lost track. Completely delusional.

Why do we have them when we already have the MSM?

#6 gutcheck on 12.06.10 at 11:35 pm

They always somehow manage to paint a rosey picture.

http://www.winnipegrealtors.ca/press/Dec10pr/Dec10pr.pdf

#7 Don on 12.06.10 at 11:43 pm

I bought the general theme, but, “tube-infested”? I’ve called Boomers a lot of things over the years, but never that.

Breathing tubes? The London tube? Ted Stevens’ Series of Tubes? Cheney’s Iraqi aluminum tubes seem unlikely. Perhaps the 80’s new wave band?

I even considered the possibility of a misprint, but I couldn’t untangle that either.

#8 TheBestPlaceOnEarth on 12.06.10 at 11:47 pm

Ok so you rent and are one of the lucky ones that has cash to invest. Of course gold is solid but here is where the next boom in Juniors will take place
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-11/uranium-bottoming-as-china-boosts-stockpiles-with-10-000-tons-from-cameco.html

#9 GenXer on 12.06.10 at 11:53 pm

Don’t worry Garth – CREA is working on a new index to measure the health of the real estate market:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/crea-developing-new-measure-of-real-estates-health/article1827410/comments/

Now we don’t have to worry about silly things like average sale price. Phew.

#10 Ben on 12.06.10 at 11:54 pm

Oh.. the Chinese can afford the Van dump cause they put 200 of themselves in it.

#11 The Apocalyptic One formerly Old is Gold on 12.06.10 at 11:58 pm

Garth: You were selling generators and talking squirrel recipes in 2008, the stock market index notwithstanding, do you not think that the situation at the end of 2010 is much worse? This cannot end badly, it must end catastrophically!

First, I sold out of generators. Second, the stock market will continue to surprise linear thinkers like you. Here, have a squirrel brownie. — Garth

#12 Guy_in_Regina on 12.07.10 at 12:06 am

Thanks for noticing us Garth.

Regina will also be ground zero for the demographic crunch, as Sask has the highest proportion of citizens over 65 of any province. And I bet Regina is the biggest hot spot in Sask for wheezing geezers; being the seat of provincial power.

At least we’ve got the Riders.

#13 The Original Dave on 12.07.10 at 12:07 am

Sue must be a man in disguise because women do not think that way. I’m recently married and it is a weekly battle with the wife. All her friends know best. I’ve tripled her rrsp account my stock purchases since 2008, yet she puts more worth in her friends opinions than mine.

I tell her there is no way I’m purchasing a house in Toronto at these prices. I’m more bearish on real estate than most people on here. Price declines will be significant in my opinion. My wife wants to buy though. Houses have been going up for years and so she imagines that the trend will continue…..always and forever. Ah well.

#14 Patz on 12.07.10 at 12:08 am

What sweet nectar hope is. And how useful to have a drooling media pooch along for the walk. —Garth

Sorry. There’s no way the USA can ever “recover” to that lush breeding ground of swindling, fraud, and childish irresponsibility. The hardships of today do not represent a dip in some regular cycle of financial push-me-pull-you. This is a systemic, structural change in the socio-economic ecology of human life. —James Howard Kunstler

Sometimes I think Garth has such great turns of phrase that he should write a book … or two.

The nectar of hope however remains alive in even the clear–eyed realists who are expecting a RE crash and the evisceration of the middle–class. Almost no one seems to understand that there are limits and we’ve reached enough of them to forestall any return to a ‘normal’ that was far from ever being normal.

Here’s a little exercise for you: get a red marker, go to your calender* and on today’s date write “The good ‘ole days.” As you look back on it in the days, weeks, months and years it will go from inspiring humor, to fear to stark realization. The depression we are in or entering will be so much worse than the last one and the world doesn’t have the resources to go another round like the last one.

Of course we’re not in a depression, are we? For instance where are those lines of hungry people waiting for their bowl of soup? This time around almost 43 million Americans have food stamp cards that get refilled every month—high tech line–ups but they are no better off.

*those old–fashioned paper ones mom used to hang on the wall.

#15 anders4c on 12.07.10 at 12:09 am

I appreciated your Regina perspective tonight, Garth. n the space of just five years, the average price of a home in this government town has more than doubled. I have lived my entire life in Regina and have landed a decent paying job here a couple of years ago. But when my wife and I tried to buy a home here earlier this year, I was shocked to discover that homes in Regina’s infamous North Central neighbourhood were exceeding $200K! People here apparently think that it really is “different” here, but I do not see how. We hear of job growth, but I would like to know what kind of jobs are actually being created. The SK Gov’t (the largest employer in Regina) will be 15% smaller in 4 years. I’d be really exicted if a major manufacturer or insurance company was moving to the city, but I haven’t heard of such a thing in years. But I do hope that home prices do come back to reality. Something just doesn’t seem right about a 5/35 mortgage on an overinflated asset, not in Regina…

#16 Kevin on 12.07.10 at 12:12 am

True affordability
http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2010/12/true-affordability.html

RBC’ s affordability report measures are based on a 25% down payment, a 25-year mortgage loan at a five-year fixed rate.

What about the average down payment for a first time buyer?
A detached bungalow in Saskatchewan goes from 39% of income towards housing with a 25% down payment to 49% of income towards housing with a 7% down payment.

It’s a great time to buy a bungalow in Saskatchewan for a first time buyer!

#17 Bill on 12.07.10 at 12:25 am

Between fooling and being fooled, it takes no courage but greed. When million people live on RE, they need to make others victims.

#18 AxeHead on 12.07.10 at 12:34 am

I have a relative in London, lost his job 2 years ago, still can’t find anything, not even a cushy government job.

#19 UrbanCowboy on 12.07.10 at 12:36 am

Haha thanks Garth that picture alone made my evening!

#20 The Apocalyptic One formerly Old is Gold on 12.07.10 at 12:39 am

I was merely asking your opinion on how you would compare the present state of the financial world in relation to its condition at the end of 2008. I already have a stockpile of all things ‘squirrel’, but thanks for the brownie!

#21 The Apocalyptic One formerly Old is Gold on 12.07.10 at 12:46 am

And comparing apples to apples, the TSX would need to rise close to 17000 – 18000 to get back to its 2008 highs in inflations adjusted values, so we haven’t even regained that which was lost back then! What’s so great about the stock market? Lose your shirt and be happy that you got to keep your underpants? Shout for joy that you are back to square 1 after 3,4,5 years? You of all people should be able to make this connection even if the talking heads on BNN, CBC, FP, Globe etc. lack the grey matter to do so!

#22 RAINBIRD on 12.07.10 at 1:03 am

A trend in the CONDO market in the Lower mainland by developers like Bosa Corporation is this:

Because the land is so expensive they have decided via a legal trick to sell the condos, if you read the ‘disclosure statement’, as kind of ‘pre-paid’ rent. The Strata does not own the land upon which the building sits, or the parking garage and after 90 years they ( the Corporation) gets to tear the building down and build a new one on – ‘their land’ – paying the original purchaser a market value which by that time will be ‘zero’.

In other words you’re temporarily buying four walls (the parking garage is assigned to the strata but the strata has a 90 year lease) for about $1,000,000 as ‘pre-paid’ rent.

Either people are not aware of this fact or they’re thinking I’m not going to live that long – so what. But, they don’t realize that their purchase has the same connotations as any purchase of a 99 year lease – a bad one.

This kind of purchase has an immediate diminishing value and gets worse and worse as time progresses – which I guess is OK if you hate your kids.

#23 Sunburn on 12.07.10 at 1:11 am

Someone mentioned that when the vancouver bubble popped the wealthy chinese would go home leaving the debt behind. Here is a story from England, with the english investors learning they can run but they can’t hide.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1333710/Spanish-bank-bids-seize-couples-UK-home-miss-payments-holiday-flat.html#ixzz16YaTQyPL

Costa nightmare could cost us our UK home: Spanish bank bids to seize cottage after couple miss payments on holiday flat
By MARY ELLEN SYNON and JONATHAN PETRE
Last updated at 10:15 PM on 27th November 2010

A couple who face losing their house in Britain to a Spanish bank have warned of the dangers of falling behind in mortgage payments on holiday homes abroad.
In an alarming development for the many thousands of Britons who have bought properties in Spain, a bank in Marbella is using EU law to force Carol and Ian Chatterton out of their £300,000 cottage in Wiltshire.
The couple – who are both NHS paramedics and have two daughters aged 12 and 14 – could be forced to sell up to pay back a mortgage on an apartment in Spain, following a hearing due to take place on Tuesday.

#24 Utopia on 12.07.10 at 1:13 am

“But, of course, London is different. And Regina. Everybody wants to move there” —Garth

——————————————-

Well, maybe not everyone. Count me out. I know better.

I think it is a shame though that so many people have moved to the Province of Saskatchewan lately in the dim hope that there are high quality jobs-galore here.

We do still have one of the lowest unemployment rates in all Canada here but let’s keep that in perspective.

This is still a Province with a population only slightly above one million people. It can only absorb so many of the disenfranchised from other Provinces.

I run into people almost weekly who complain that they were hyped into moving here for the work. They have come in droves and swelled Regina’s population thus driving rental rates skyward.

But disappointment seems to have greeted too many who have discovered (too late) and only after arriving that good quality easy jobs are as scarce here as they are everywhere else.

Oh, last year and in years past there were tons of jobs.

But we have had a huge influx of people this past year, economic refugees from Ontario, Alberta and BC, who have filled the best positions.

And yet they still come because they heard rents and houses were cheap and social programs robust.

Well here’s the real news. There are tons of crappy Mac-jobs that nobody wants, houses now cost double and triple what they were just 3 years ago and rent prices are typical of cities everywhere else in the country these days.

In Regina, you might be lucky to even find decent digs.

#25 Sgt Bilko on 12.07.10 at 1:16 am

Understanding the overall Macro Economic picture matters. Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, Jim Willie and yes Garth Turner – among others – are simply RIGHT.

Government and currency relationships up until recently were slow and the big picture hard to see. Purchasing investments or buying a house might not have paid off for years. I’ve been part of the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s economic cycles in BC/Alta and have NOT always come out a winner – too busy living to learn…

Since 9-11 of 2001 however the pace of monetary change is FAST and many trends are easy to see. The Internet allows us to block together a picture and basically predict the future.

Opinion: Without the Internet – we would be manipulated right back to Germany circa 1933.

Opinion: Housing in Canada is on a slippery slope and anyone who has traveled can confirm that our attitudes, our way of life and our CITIES are not all that special. Prairie city prices especially are delusional – look outside folks (yes, I lived in AB for 18 years – 4 houses).

Opinion: The world will clue in that the LOONIE is overvalued and our RESOURCES are overstated. Housing hell will befall us upon this realization.

Opinion: Not a Vancouver booster (and I DON’T own at the moment) BUT the Southern Island, Gulf Islands and Lower Mainland are…well…desirable on a World scale. The only thing that would positively flush the prices here is if the border opened up into NW Washington where the SAME geographic wonders are available in a MUCH larger area. Ain’t gonna happen…

Opinion: Anyone with the foresight to buy Silver and Gold after 9-11 will be proven right on the money.

#26 TheBigLebowski on 12.07.10 at 1:16 am

Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves

#27 Cookie Monster on 12.07.10 at 1:22 am

Joy, I think your anger and hatred of capitalism is misplaced.

Check out this article about the three types of capitalism that exists today rightly called 1) owners capitalism, 2) managerial capitalism and 3) crony capitalism or government interventionism or favoritism.

http://www.europac.net/voices/tale_three_capitalisms

Capitalism proper is the best and only moral political system which we’ve never fully had but did come close in the USA which has deteriorated seriously now since the days of Ronald Reagan.

What could possibly be wrong with capitalism if practiced by definition?

cap·i·tal·ism
   /ˈkæpɪtlˌɪzəm/ Show Spelled[kap-i-tl-iz-uhm] Show IPA
–noun
an economic system in which investment in and ownership of the means of production, distribution, and exchange of wealth is made and maintained chiefly by private individuals or corporations, esp. as contrasted to cooperatively or state-owned means of wealth.

#28 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.07.10 at 1:34 am


Mfg. is, or has disappeared from southern Ontario, which goes with a solid industrial base vanishing, so if people don’t have extra money to spend, there isn’t much, if any reason to have malls or strip malls, is there?

Dad (Nostradamus Jr.) was accurate in his predictions, because there is not much more in Quebec. Unfortunately, these two are more than likely to drag TROC down with them, ‘tho we’re doing a pretty good job by ourselves.

“What sweet nectar hope is.” — I used to hope, or dream of, winning a small, but nice amount on the lottery so I could take early retirement. I never won the lottery — Hope Springs Eternal — but I am retired now.
*
Elite Taking the west down the road to ruin.

Unemployment Not getting better.

Four Scenarios from Alternet.

Total Meltdown plus Further to tomorrow’s bank run. Whether it actually happens is anyone’s guess.

Silver Govts. likes it too.

One third of the Irish want the pound back. Where did the Euro go? Plus — Legal jargon.

Facebook and Google are going to war, and Wikileaks is imploding.

Govts. — Lessons on how to screw things up.

Panic Buying in UK. GW?

FEMA Camps Seems as if it is a conspiracy theory no longer.

#29 Confused in Victoria on 12.07.10 at 1:35 am

They say Victoria is bucking the trend. Prices keep going up.

#30 Freaked in Vancouver on 12.07.10 at 1:48 am

Oh yeah, things are really slowing down in Vancouver. These 2 new building lots just listed in W. Richmond, Seafair area (suburb just south of Vancouver, very popular with new Chinese) on MLS website. Building lot 66 x107, asking $1,688,000. Also, building lot 66 x 120 asking $1,699,000. More than DOUBLE the price of a year ago. The realtor must know they can get close to that or they wouldn’t have listed that high. Shoot me now.

#31 The Other Dave on 12.07.10 at 1:48 am

With rampant drug use going on these days, that means big money for the dealers, real-estate as usual is the preferred method of washing the ill gotten gains, drop 10k a month in your bank account and the govt raises an eye brow, drop that same coin on a mortgage payment no one bats an eye.

#32 tiger_baby on 12.07.10 at 2:00 am

“We are all taking a PHD level course in human nature as we watch this unfold in slow motion.”

more like a first year college course like introduction to financial planning I’d say … however if you manage to pass this course you are already heads and shoulders ahead of the crowd, because unfortunately, most people have taken this “all I need to know in life I learned in kindergarten” stuff a little too seriously

#33 Tim on 12.07.10 at 2:09 am

The only reason housing hasn’t tanked in Canada, other than low rates is because it is so much easier for immigrants to move here than to the States, thanks to the flimsy immigration policy in Canada

#34 new world order on 12.07.10 at 2:28 am

its a new world order

Greatest transfer of wealth. Trillions of dollars disappearing into thin air. I’m sure the puppet masters are getting rich out of this.

At the end of the day you will all be slaves to the puppet master.

A business partner of mine from cambodia once said. For every one man to maintain a rich lifestyle, you would need hundreds underneath him to supply him with wealth.

I think the game is just beginning, this is going to make Bernie Maldolf look like a child.

#35 WontHappen on 12.07.10 at 2:39 am

Supposedly real estate prices in Canada are ‘unsustainable’. Apparently they’re being sustained quite well regardless of what people think.

#36 WontHappen on 12.07.10 at 2:42 am

Delusion is the right word! Readers of this blog seem to think that real estate prices are unsustainable – they’ve been thinking that for the last half decade! Funny stuff!

#37 hobbygirl on 12.07.10 at 2:46 am

There’s no trusting mainstream media sources that depend on commercial advertising for their livelihood to deliver the truth to listeners.

I found a good quote from this week’s John Mauldins’ ‘Outside the Box’ on why we should never trust what our politicians say either. The Three Stages of Delusion by Dylan Grice; “The dawning of reality hurts. Prodded and bullied along a tortuous emotional path by events unforeseen and beyond our control, we descend through three phases: the first is denial that there is a problem; the second is denial that there is a big problem; the third is denial that the problem was anything to do with us.”

In the RE world we are somewhere between stage one and two if we’re lucky enough to have the foresight.

#38 Midas on 12.07.10 at 2:57 am

If you paid me $300k to take a house in Regina I might consider it — after a dozen beer.

#39 Midas on 12.07.10 at 3:02 am

I agree, Joy. Marxism is the only way. I absolutely hate the idea that people might freely exchange goods and services without a central planner telling them what to exchange and for how much.

Are you launching a rocket to Venus? I hear it’s a little toasty there, but surely not as hot as the Earth after all the hot air is expelled from the global warmists.

#40 Alan on 12.07.10 at 3:29 am

In Vancouver, 2+2 = 5

Lets not try and figure it out.

It’s different out here. There I said it. Sober.

#41 realpaul on 12.07.10 at 3:48 am

Garth don’t forget about Vancouver….a city so hoist on its own petard that we have literally become cloud dwellers. Our mayor proved that today when he annnounced that any questions for City Hall would have to wait…..they are too ‘busy’ at their ‘jobs’ to deal with public scrutiny.

Our executive has pronounced that Vancouver is so far removed from normal that we have created our own biosphere…..one where bicycle lanes have their own designated multi million dollar machines to keep them clear of rain water and pesky snowflakes…in a season where not one biker can be seen in the course of a commute. …but the purpose built lanes that isolate the nasty businesses from the public are pristine.

The shopkeepers can go to hell says the mayor. Real estate can only go up…its mandated from heaven. We have rich dope dealers from all over the world…buying up the crack shacks…..there is no need to rely on reality in Vancouver. Its differant here. Every third house is either a grow op or a meth lab in many areas…..the system is saying “If you’re not in on the dope game…then its your fault for getting priced out of the city.”

We are living in a city that has as its baseline economy a drug business…….worth 6 billion a year…bigger than tourism and forestry combined.

The COV and Province are telling us “Either grow dope or get out.”

#42 $froma$ia on 12.07.10 at 3:56 am

9% unemplyment rate is a lie…

I know so many people in construction that are all working a 3-4 day work week.

If they just count full time jobs nation wide we have at least 12%.

Try and pay your mortgage on part time employment.

First they Skew the numbers then they spin them.

Garth what does F mean when he says Carney has to be relentless on currency?

Does he mean make sure to inject enough money into the system to keep the Canadian dollar bellow the American dollar. If so, I’d say he’s doing a pretty good job of it!

#43 Mark in Edmonton on 12.07.10 at 4:25 am

Recently here in Edmonton at a volunteer group meeting the conversation went towards the real estate market & retail real estate in Edmonton here where we live. Thousands of apartments, condos and houses sitting empty while thousands are homeless in the city. Condo highrises built just a few years ago-still half empty throughout the city. SO many empty storefront windows, not only DT but in the new sunburbs-looks like we are coming out a a depression! But, the real estate market is just starting to go down again here!
If Canada has the most consumer debt of the entire g-20 and Edmonton and Calgary are carrying over twice the average Canadian Debt load per household/person, does that it mean we will experience the credit bubble burst in an extreme US fashion?
I work in an Industry that is the Creme de la Crem of Edmonton Service we are really high end & attract a lot of old money. I must say that one of our senior managers told us he doesn’t understand why sales would plunge 20% down, the 1st time in 20 years sales have contracted!
I just want to say anyways-Glad to be renting now in Edmonton! Or, as some people say DEADMONTON Oilberta!

#44 Incognito on 12.07.10 at 5:19 am

“Melissa agrees. She just wrote me this: “I’m fed up with hearing realtors and not-so-objective reporters saying “Regina/Saskatchewan is bucking the trend!” If I hear that line one more time I’ll throw up”

Today we are now seeing a growing public distaste for REALTOR(R) spin and pump, “news”papers who worship ad revenue over integrity and gov’ts who completely ignore the voters wishes who put them into power.

I wouldn’t want be to any of the distrusted group of 3 above today.

As Garth is fond of saying… “This won’t end well”

#45 Pr on 12.07.10 at 7:31 am

The interest rate are so abnormally low for so long around the world, it look like, when they go back to normal, like 7% to 9% , the real estate will crash and burn, around the world. How can some one think for a moment that some real estate from 2000 to 2010 have double, triple some time quatruple and event some place 5 time is original price of 2000. INSANE! iTS NOT OVER YET! We watch this together.

#46 Tim Hogdner on 12.07.10 at 8:14 am

Dex 7,2010

Not a single house will fall in value in 2011
There will be a 3% increase in price in 2011
ReMax

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/housing-market-to-see-greater-stability/article1827679/

#47 Oasis on 12.07.10 at 8:22 am

#26 TheBigLebowski on 12.07.10 at 1:16 am

Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves
________________________________________

extremely well said. !!!

Gold $1430
Silver $30.50
Oil $90.30

and they all keep going higher…

#48 Ben on 12.07.10 at 8:40 am

The 25-Year ‘Foreclosure From Hell’

by Robbie Whelan
Monday, December 6, 2010
provided by The Wall Street Journal

Patsy Campbell could tell you a thing or two about fighting foreclosure. She’s been fighting hers for 25 years.

The 71-year-old retired insurance saleswoman has been living in her house, a two-story on a half acre in a tidy middle-class neighborhood here in central Florida, since 1978. The last time she made a mortgage payment was October 1985.

http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/111500/the-25-year-foreclosure-from-hell

#49 Live within your means on 12.07.10 at 8:43 am

Yesterday I said that when I attended 2 retirement seminars years ago the break even year was 67. That should have read 76. Not sure what the break even year is now.

From the Service Canada website:

Before the changes, your CPP retirement pension was reduced by 0.5% for each month before age 65 that you began receiving it. This meant that, if you started receiving your CPP pension at 60, your pension amount was 30% less than it would have been if you had waited to take it at 65.

From 2012 to 2016, the Government will gradually change this early pension reduction from 0.5% to 0.6% per month. This means that, by 2016, if you start receiving your CPP pension at the age of 60, your pension amount will be 36% less than it would have been if you had taken it at 65.

Garth is right. For the majority of people it is wise to hold off taking CPP until 65.

#50 Moneta on 12.07.10 at 8:55 am

It’s in balance until it isn’t.

In the US, the balance got unbalanced in 2005.

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/10/existing-home-inventory-year-over-year.html

#51 bigrider on 12.07.10 at 9:12 am

” The stock market will continue to surprise linear thinkers like you”

You better believe it ! It is foolish to believe the stock market will repeat performance of the past ten years over the next ten.

Google David Bensimon of Polar Pacific.

Financial assets over RE going forward.

#52 Moneta on 12.07.10 at 9:25 am

.#23 Sunburn on 12.07.10 at 1:11 am
———–

What did they expect? Middle class takes on 145K mortgage in Spain. Ding. Ding. Ding.

They just want a free lunch.

#53 Moneta on 12.07.10 at 9:33 am

A business partner of mine from cambodia once said. For every one man to maintain a rich lifestyle, you would need hundreds underneath him to supply him with wealth.
———-
Because of the outsourcing of production and by extension pollution, Westerners are completely out of touch with reality.

In a meeting, I asked an analyst how much longer we could keep on exploiting emerging market to maintain our lifestyle. Some young ones in the meeting freaked out. Their belief is that these workers in the developing world are happy and thankful to serve us. We are doing them a huge favor.

I didn’t want to argue so I told them to go look at the definition of exploitation. It’s quite large.

#54 Sand-Piper on 12.07.10 at 9:33 am

I can’t say it enough – awesome job Garth – the G man has put some sanity in this insane world.

My wife and I, bought in 2002 – and from the very first day – this was our little santuary – a place to keep us dry – warm in the winter, cool in the summer. A backyard to plant my tomato’s and to relax in my chair on those hot summer days.

I am glad we bought – and though I have made off remarks of selling and renting – it comes down to it that we are content, we attack our mtg payments – applying accelerated weekly payments – extra payments when we find the extra cash – this simple approach has provided a 15 year (sentence) to the banking gods – at least we widdled down from the original 25 years. I can’t help but laugh at those who took out 40 year mtg – unless they have a strick budgeting plan – can you say money pit…

p.s. – working in a trustee’s office – for December we are seeing a higher then normal filings of bk and proposals which December is usually a very quiet month…hmmmm.. me thinks 2011 we have alot of overtime….

Keep up the awesome job G man…and cheers to all my fellow readers!!

#55 Macrath on 12.07.10 at 9:49 am

Orwellian nightmare in U.S.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/wal-mart-invasion-part-of-larger-dhs-takeover-of-america.html

#56 kw on 12.07.10 at 10:06 am

Talk about crap! I strolled into the Bank of NS last week and inquired about purchasing silver. She said that only wafers were available and that they would take 3 weeks for delivery. They would have to be shipped up from Halifax ( I live on the north shore of NS) by Brinks Security and that I would have to pay shipping fees and other costs. I mentioned that I only wanted perhaps 4 ounces. I asked why they could not simply send them up from Halifax with their regular mailing. She said that they would have to be shipped on there own, no idea of associated costs. They obviously are trying to dissuade me from my purchase making it prohibitive beyond logic
Why do you suppose they don’t want me buying silver? Is it true that only wafers are available? Are wafers less costly than the equivalent in say bullion or coins?

Why on earth would you buy four ounces of silver at the highest price ever? Do you make jewelry? — Garth

#57 Andrew toronto on 12.07.10 at 10:14 am

Garth you state..….it’s widely agreed the second leg of the property crash has begun… [in the US]…

Yet here in Canada with household debt at all time highs and home ratios far exceeding what the u.s hitting prior to their crash.. 10.8 in vancouver. we continue to buy overpriced houses.. I hear Harper has extended the stimulas program past March to october next year. Is there no end to the madness out there. I never would’ve believed the government would of did this massive bailout , If I had known that I would’ve remained a homeowner in 2008 and sold now. Garth you’ve mentioned that the government will stop at nothing to aviod deflation . If thats the case they will not let housing fall either by the looks of things. who’s to stop them from coming out with 50yr or even 100 year mortgages to keep this going a few more innings. One thing I do fear the more this continues the more likely this whole deleveraging process will take. the harder we all fall we are so screwed..

Take a Valium. Wait. — Garth

#58 john m on 12.07.10 at 10:16 am

The crash is coming..its inevitable and the longer it is prolonged with cheap loans and vote buying governments the worse it will be…every hour more victims join the folds. IMO

#59 BrianT on 12.07.10 at 10:20 am

#14Patz-what you might be missing is that dollars are all relative-that is why the connected financial players getting taxpayer money are actually doing better than they would be in a strong economy. Let’s say you are given 2 million dollars and you are an American-you are in a far stronger position than in 2006 because you are competing with other Americans for everything money can buy. This is how the elite think and operate-if you can hold your position and impoverish everybody else effectively it is just as useful as growing your wealth. During the 1930s vast amounts of real wealth were purchased for pennies on the dollar by the rich-the depression was the best thing that ever happened to the North American elite. This one is also working out well because of the agressive confiscation of taxpayer capital. I do realize that most readers will classify this as tin foil hat stuff.

#60 kw on 12.07.10 at 10:28 am

Re:#56
Gee, I hear that silver is going to $300 / ounce. I guess I should wait. I wouldn’t want to buy it too low!! Actually , it would be just for the novelty of it.
I read today that gold and copper are at all time highs. How long before a long awaited correction in the equity markets, Garth?

#61 Moneta on 12.07.10 at 10:48 am

Garth you’ve mentioned that the government will stop at nothing to avoid deflation . If thats the case they will not let housing fall either by the looks of things.
————-
They are not pro-active, they are reactive. They did not do bailouts to prop us real estate in Canada. They did it to prop up the system… short term credit was seizing up. Remember ABCP. It DIED. If they had not used CMHC to funnel funds, real estate would have collapsed just like in the US. They stoked the fire and now we have the mother of all bubbles in Canada.

It’s all about the US. All the BoC is doing is dancing with the US. If you forget this, you’ll get sideswiped.

#62 taxpayer on 12.07.10 at 10:57 am

Spring could be good for sales. Not to make big buck but to exit RE market. Canada has thousand of new immigrants every year, most of them go to big cities where they find people of their same culture. Immigration did not save Usa from collapse, but it is a very large country with too many cities to live. Canada has more concentrated population. RE prices might go 10-20% down but no more (You’ll see). Who in his right mind will sell his house because a 15% down in price???If you take into consideration what you have to pay to the GOOD FOR NOTHING (Realtors), moving expenses, etc; it is not worth it. People who bought recently and those who sold waiting for a collapse of RE are screw!

#63 tired vulture on 12.07.10 at 10:58 am

Spring could be good for sales. Not to make big buck but to exit RE market. Canada has thousand of new immigrants every year, most of them go to big cities where they find people of their same culture. Immigration did not save Usa from collapse, but it is a very large country with too many cities to live. Canada has more concentrated population. RE prices might go 10-20% down but no more (You’ll see). Who in his right mind will sell his house because a 15% down in price???If you take into consideration what you have to pay to the GOOD FOR NOTHING (Realtors), moving expenses, etc; it is not worth it. People who bought recently are screw!

#64 Oasis on 12.07.10 at 11:00 am

oh no. don’t look now, but the US long bond is crapping out again… what a collapse and break of support… oh well. look for total devastation in the bond market over the next few months..

#65 The American on 12.07.10 at 11:05 am

I’m an American, living in Seattle, and I should say that each and every Canadian should stop and listen to what Garth has been saying for a while. Canadian real estate values, along with values in other countries like Australia, are going to decline. These values will decline substantially, much like they did in the U.S. as lending standards were, contrary to belief, about the same as they were in the U.S. Most markets within the U.S. have declined in value, especially ones without truly sustainable industry like Miami. In Canada, we would probably compare that market to Vancouver as Vancouver is often looked upon by Canadians as THE place to be to obtain better weather in a big city atmosphere. The problem with Vancouver, however, is there is no real industry to justify the price points. I look at Seattle, for example, a city only slightly larger than Vancouver, and the GDP from Seattle is $235Billion vs. Vancouver’s at only $98Billion. Seattle’s GDP is about 2.4 times the size of GDP of Vancouver’s. In Seattle, we’ve experienced about a 25% (give or take) correction, and we’re one of the better cities to have survived this crash. I hear the arguments from Canadians about the foreign money in Vancouver to save the city’s RE market, but those who believe that might as well believe China itself is doing pretty well right now (because it isn’t and they know it). Chinese money did not save L.A. or San Francisco and more Chinese immigrate there than to Vancouver.

I think what I’ve learned most of all from this “recession” is that when people start to justify WHY they’re different, it is only a matter of time before they are proven of their ignorance of the reality of the situation.

Vancouver prices will probably correct substantially more, percentage wise, over that of Toronto. Toronto has a viable and well-diversified industry to sustain it. Toronto will experience a correction as well, but not to the degree of Vancouver.

#66 David B on 12.07.10 at 11:09 am

But, of course, London is different. And Regina. Everybody wants to move there.

YES! and buy buy now buy not one but two …. and why not because Canada’s smartest man next to Mr F. has just said it all.
———————-

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney kept his benchmark interest at 1 per cent Tuesday, saying threats to the global recovery have increased, expressing concern about the rebound for Canadian exports and reiterating that further rate hikes would have to be “carefully considered.”

————————-

Yup just like they when they sat down and decided to give free money away and now are allowing it remain almost free.

#67 BrianT on 12.07.10 at 11:17 am

I saw a 7 ft tall Aye-rab lugging a dialysis machine through the WalMart-maybe someone should report it http://market-ticker.org/

#68 AG Sage on 12.07.10 at 11:19 am

Today, we are all awkwardly costumed supermen.

#23 Sunburn on 12.07.10 at 1:11 am
>Someone mentioned that when the vancouver bubble popped the wealthy chinese would go home leaving the debt behind.

I’ve been wondering about this. What % will cut their losses in each direction. I’m sure there will be some of each. Face is everything, which direction loses the least face?

I don’t think even the Chinese know, if you were to survey them now (if that were possible). The mainlanders have never seen a housing bubble, their reaction is a complete unknown, even to themselves.

#69 Mr. Lee on 12.07.10 at 11:21 am

People make the same herd mistakes over and over again. What will you people believe, affordability indexes at 5.2, one trillion dollars in tax payer insured CMHC mortgages, lowest interest rates in history, tepid growth in the economy and wages, housing deflation in the industrialized world. Yet, let us believe the cheerleaders in the MSM, and attack Garth for trying to save our bacon.

Good show folks, see you all in the EI line

#70 PTDBD on 12.07.10 at 11:29 am

Delusions and Illusions – Superman – then and now

I am reminded of the picture of Mr. Obama in Superman garb that you posted when he was first elected. Time and circumstance have wrought their “change” —> (In my best Gomer Pyle voice)…..”surprise, surprise, surprise. Bush tax cuts for the rich extended.”

____________________________________________
Another morning, early
Late, middle class life.
Each day’s acid drip
Deepens the rut of our hopeless strife.
Santa, Superman, God… perceived all dead,
Genetic engineering, our daily bread.

Hope of change, strength and truth all illusion.
We now reap the harvest of our delusion.
____________________________________________

#71 dark sad person on 12.07.10 at 11:34 am

182 Taxpayer like everyone else on 12.07.10 at 1:54 am

175 Dark Sad – so you are saying people are saving by defaulting? But if defaulting destroys savings then isnt it a wash? I also notice savings rate has always been
positive. And I’ve never ignored fractional reserve
banking.

***********************

No I’m not saying People are saving by Defaulting but their Balance sheets are improving as Debt is shed-

eg: If you owed 500K on a home that’s worth 250K on the Market and you Default on the Debt you have improved/repaired your Balance sheet to the positive by 250K-

*************
But if defaulting destroys savings then isnt it a wash?

***************

Where were the savings-using the above example?
There were zero savings only 250K in debt-

You need to show me where the savings rate has always been positive-
I showed you two Fed charts that say otherwise-
In fact-that is the problem here-the savings rate has plummeted as RE gave People the “illusion” of building wealth-
Rising RE (ATM’s)-Outsourcing jobs and Importing cheap goods from China-masked the fact that Incomes have been stagnating for the last 10 years-

You say you don’t ignore FRB-yet you agree with Investor Shawn that for every Dollar of Debt there is a Dollar of Savings-
If that were the case-they would not need FRB-because that is the base off which they issue Credit-

#72 Confused in Victoria on 12.07.10 at 11:37 am

I keep wondering why it has not happened yet. I have been reading this blog and various other blogs for the past few years and nothing has changed – at least in Victoria. Apparently building permits are up here.

I really think nothing is going to change. I don’t know how but it all seems to keep ticking along.

#73 Timing is Everything on 12.07.10 at 11:37 am

#15 anders4c

There’s always Weyburn, but ya better hurry, because
it’s different there. Really different. Just ask Garth.
Or was it Estevan? I keep getting them mixed-up.

#74 Daisy Mae on 12.07.10 at 11:39 am

A small strip mall is ready for occupancy across from our gated community in West Kelowna — construction crews are gone, landscaping is complete.

And there it sits…..empty.

#75 down and out on 12.07.10 at 11:40 am

Should have ventured further south of London to Windsor to see real estate doom .

#76 dark sad person on 12.07.10 at 11:45 am

#63 Oasis on 12.07.10 at 11:00 am

oh no. don’t look now, but the US long bond is crapping out again… what a collapse and break of support… oh well. look for total devastation in the bond market over the next few months..

***********************

That’s probably the dumbest things I’ve seen posted on this board-

It’s equivalent to saying that the Bull Market in Gold is over if the price drops $100-

Do you not know how to read and interpret a chart?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TP30A28

#77 BrianT on 12.07.10 at 11:51 am

#65-What is funny about Carney is that the whole world has the example of Iceland,Ireland,the USA, etc.etc. which all got into trouble (according to Mark Carney’s spin) because interest rates were too high-as long as interest rates are as low as possible nothing bad will happen.

#78 Rich Renter on 12.07.10 at 11:54 am

Blame the Alberta Factor for Regina.
I know lot’s of people who have sold their homes in Calgary and returned to places like Regina, Saskatoon and the Maritimes.

#79 Timing is Everything on 12.07.10 at 11:56 am

#25 Sgt Bilko

Opinion – Moved from Regina to Victoria in ’89 (We were just kids on Garth’s life-scale). Bingo. Retiring here.
I go back to Saskabush every couple years or three. IN THE SUMMER only.

#80 Junius on 12.07.10 at 11:57 am

#64 The American,

Well said. Amen.

#81 Macrath on 12.07.10 at 12:03 pm

#56 kw

BNS don`t actually have much silver if any. Just paper certificates that promise silver.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zovn4hovTg0

When Bullion Fever strikes the price no longer matters.

#82 Daisy Mae on 12.07.10 at 12:07 pm

“Garth is right. For the majority of people it is wise to hold off taking CPP until 65.”

If possible, hold off until age 70. ‘X’ number of contributed dollars are then spread over 15 years — as opposed to 25 years at age 60, or 20 years at age 65 — because the government bases their calculations on a average life span is 85.

#83 bill on 12.07.10 at 12:08 pm

KW this may help:

http://www.vbce.ca/index.cfm?fuseaction=fx_services.Gold&Silver

https://online.kitco.com/

these guys want to sell you some pm’s

#84 Calgary Illusion on 12.07.10 at 12:14 pm

“it’s widely agreed the second leg of the property crash has begun”

But Garth, Mr Benanke said real estate is already at bottom….and therefore a double dip recession is not possible…..and he is “100%” certain of this:-)

#85 Aussie Roy on 12.07.10 at 12:16 pm

You say you don’t ignore FRB-yet you agree with Investor Shawn that for every Dollar of Debt there is a Dollar of Savings-
If that were the case-they would not need FRB-because that is the base off which they issue Credit-

The banking business model is a beauty, only industry where you can buy 1 of something and sell it 9 times.
Or is that sell something 9 times then go buy 1.
Actually even better sell 9 times then use 1 of the ones sold, when deposited for you to look after as the reserve requirement.

Yep FRB its a strange system when you think about it.
Steve Keen writes some great stuff on this subject.
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

Aussie Update

Valuations should be more than just prices of recently sold properties.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/money/nail-down-the-valuation-first-20101203-18jwe.html

Going for broke: the insolvency story in Australia
http://www.smh.com.au/national/going-for-broke-the-insolvency-story-in-australia-20101204-18kxd.html

#86 Junius on 12.07.10 at 12:29 pm

#40 Alan,

You have finally done it. Your math skills explain your hypnotic fantasy that Vancouver can defy gravity.

Now I get it.

#87 Mr. Plow on 12.07.10 at 12:30 pm

#43 Mark in Edmonton…

You said, “not only DT but in the new sunburbs-looks like we are coming out a a depression”

I live in Edmonton, I have lived here for the last 7 years or so. Not too sure if you actually know what an economically hard hit city looks like. I have noticed very little change in Edmonton on the exterior. Sure businesses have struggled, but don’t make stuff up to make it sound worse than it is.

I have been to Detroit Michigan twice in the last two years. And your description of Edmonton is what I saw in Detroit; malls with maybe 3 stores in them, a DT with no one around but homeless people etc…

So you likely made this up, or you really have no clue what an economically hard hit city looks like. Trust me what you see in Edmonton is nothing.

#88 BrianT on 12.07.10 at 12:44 pm

This Jack the Ripper character Assange is so dangerous he is denied bail-the funniest comment is from one of the posters-“The truth tellers go to jail-the thieves and liars get bonuses”. Just about sums it up http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Judge-denies-WikiLeaks-apf-2367078207.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

#89 Utopia on 12.07.10 at 1:12 pm

@47 Oasis and TheBigLebowski

Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves
___________________________________

Gold $1430.00
Silver $30.50
Oil $90.30
Barter: A groovy shared experience
Debt: Priceless

And they all keep going higher……

(Good to hear from you today Mr Lebowski)

#90 Bill ( Peterborough) on 12.07.10 at 1:14 pm

Real estate for the most part is dead, except for the few locations where those who have money dwell, choosing not to mingle with the diminishing middle class or to have to step over the homeless in other areas.

Farm land will become more valuble in the future, self sufficiency becomimg the key for the future. If you can’t buy farm land get to know some farmers, buying local not genetically modified products. We all have to eat.

The problem with our societies in general is that we have become more dependant and less self sufficient. This leaves us more vulnerable to manipulation and created catastrophies.

Gold , silver , oil will keep increasing in price for a while still, you may thank the Financial Genius’s south of us for that, who just keep printing more money.

For those who can’t grasp the above paragraph, let me explain. The more U.S. currency printed the further it devalues said currency , therefore requiring more said currency to buy such products as Gold, Silver, Oil… ( the U.S. dollar is still the choice currency of the world for now, I fear it won’t be for long)

Now for economic lesson 101;

We are having Hyperinflation ( fiat currencies) delation ( wages, standard of living..) and inflation ( of the necessaties to survive such as food, fuel…) All at the same time. Sort of like what has been going on for centuries in the 2’nd & 3’rd world countries where only the fuedal system was implied.

You can thank the people who pushed for the global economy; for this, under the pretence that we would all benefit from this. ( Sort of like a combination of George Orwell’s books ” Animial Farm & 1984)

Now having said that ” Do you really think our outcome down the road will be any different, eh?

Food For Thought:

Banks do not have enough in hard currencies to pay everyone if we all decided to withdraw at the same time . Thank the fractional reserve system for that ( No different than a Ponzi Scheme)

Stock Markets?

Diamonds are a high priced item not because there is a shortage of them ( “They” are sitting with huge stockpiles of them) It’s called Market manipulation. Try buying a diamond from a reputable store today and sell it the next day, let me know if you got the same money back for it.

What makes you think they won’t do the same with Gold and other preciuos metals, since “they are sitting with stockpiles of them as well. They will loose nothing by flooding the market with gold but gain everything when it drops. ( They control it all anyways) You will become the loosers. Think about it. Win win for them. You ask why? Im’ sure you know people who will never have enough, on a small scale. Now think on a much larger scale.

The secret with the stock market in the future will be to cash out at the right time and buy more tangible items such as land, water, livestock, seeds…Not to re-invest in it since we all know it is manipulated for the most part to benefit the “Few ” in the long term.

We are in far worse shape than back in the depression era. The only difference is that we keep printing more money creating a false economy with false hopes of a recovery. IMO a very dangerous cocktail. Sort of like coming off the kool aid and waking up with a hangover which will not go away.

Went to see a friend of mine, had a couple of cold ones and he showed me a gerbal which was purchased at the pet store. I ask him why he bought it . He said just watch.( Bought a huge cage for it with all the gerbal mazes and toys to keep the little fellow amused) In a couple minutes the gerbal was going around all the toys playing with them, running through the maze, and finally getting on the wheel, running for all he could, going nowhere, not knowing why.

He looked at me laughing and said the gerbal reminded him of most people. I started to laugh as well, not only at the gerbal but at the cat who was watching the gerbal. Now his cat is about 20 pounds, very majestic and walks around like he owns the place. I Believe the cat will own the gerbal shortly.

Garth, Nosty, darksadperson, TheBigLebowski, Coho, Dan from Victoria, Victoria Tea party, The Apocolyptic one, Junius, and those who think along the same lines whom I forgot to mention:

MERRY CHRISTMAS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKY-smJ6aBQ

#91 Coho on 12.07.10 at 1:19 pm

#27 Cookie Monster,

If people were just and fair, economic systems would be much more equitable, but it is the problem with evil like a monkey on humankind’s back that corrupts all things fair and good (on paper). People are so weak willed….

So, it doesn’t matter what it is, man’s selfish tendencies will screw anything up. And remember there is a heirarchy on this planet and the ones at the top feel they are entitled to all the riches (divine right of kings) while those below them are “lucky” to have the basics.

There is much laughter in the halls of power where billions and trillions of dollars flow in while Joe Welder and Jenny Clerk accuse each other of living beyond their means.

#92 Scott on 12.07.10 at 1:26 pm

How exactly does one go about buying physical silver or gold? Is purchasing coins from the Royal Mint the way to go?

#93 Nancy on 12.07.10 at 1:33 pm

I’m starting to see Sarah Palin’s point (oh god) about the lamestream media. Since media is all about advertising dollars, there’s no truth to it anywhere, not even a desire for truth. It’s all about feeding its Masters.

That’s why wikileaks was ever born.

#94 Lorne on 12.07.10 at 1:43 pm

From David Rosenberg today. What say, Garth?

As it turns out, and despite my earlier doubts, the Bank turned out to be 100%
correct in hiking rates early as to defuse what was possibly becoming a housing
bubble in Canada. So far, it looks like it has let the air out of the balloon gently
without having to burst it.
There’s never a reason to become complacent, but hopefully the folks at the
Bank of Canada will take some time to reflect on their success. After all, this
gathering of the monetary policy clan occurs after the release of two of the most
important pieces of economic data that underscored just how well the Canadian
macro landscape is performing, particularly in light of the turmoil in so many
other parts of the world.

#95 SK on 12.07.10 at 1:45 pm

@ anders4c:

For someone who claims to have a decent paying job, you couldn’t be more misinformed.

Not only is the province booming with various natural resource riches, the state of the art intermodal hub being built west of the city will be home to massive warehouses (some of which are already being built) for Loblaws, etc.

Sk has lead or been near the top of GDP growth in recent history and shows absolutely zero signs of slowing down as increased global reliance on agricultural products, oil, potash, etc will be a cash cow for the province and its citizens for the forseeable future.

I don’t expect a reply so don’t waste your time.

#96 Kevin in Winnipeg on 12.07.10 at 1:47 pm

Someone must be fudging the numbers in Winnipeg.

The word from RE Agents is the market is dead yet we are being told there were 837 sales in November and a 10% increase in dollar value. The average price in January 2010 was $223,200 yet the November average is $219,782.. a 1% decrease. This is fairly substantial as the average increase in 2009 was 10%. No mention of this in the report.

#97 cowtown update on 12.07.10 at 2:01 pm

Remax trying to beat a dead horse in morning 660 news:

“Sales of SFH will pick up in 2011 with first time home buyers leading the market. 2011 will see a very stable market followed by an increase of 2% in SFH prices.”

No talk whether sales will pick up just regular bs…buy now or see a 2% increase in price of houses and condos.

#98 Incognito on 12.07.10 at 2:17 pm

#47 Oasis “extremely well said. !!! Gold $1430, Silver $30.50, Oil $90.30 and they all keep going higher…”

And down they all go:

Gold $1407 (-$23)
Silver $29.70 (-.80)
Oil $88.67 (-$1.63)

and they all keep going lower….

#99 Brian1 on 12.07.10 at 2:21 pm

If everybody is impatient then do something. Put signs in the street. They should state that house prices will fall 50%(according to Forbes) over next 5 years or advertise this web site or the Financial Insights web page. You will then speed this thing along and we can all get it over with. Sheese.

#100 pablo on 12.07.10 at 2:36 pm

Why on earth would you buy four ounces of silver at the highest price ever? Do you make jewelry? — Garth

Take a Valium. Wait. — Garth

First, I sold out of generators. Second, the stock market will continue to surprise linear thinkers like you. Here, have a squirrel brownie. — Garth

You should be writing one liners for a living, all of them pure gold, @ $1430/oz x 3 you’re up $4290. for the day, WOW, great, ROI. Oh and I forgot; LOL, & ROFLMAO !

Seriously, why would anyone go into a bank to buy silver or gold, go to precious metals dealer/broker who has virtually immediate access to inventory.

#101 Brian1 on 12.07.10 at 2:37 pm

As house prices in the states are headed for a double dip do doubters seriously think that Canada will not be affected? Do you not think Canadians with money will not be offered American citizenship if we offer to buy a house? We could buy a property now if we chose.

#102 kitchener1 on 12.07.10 at 2:47 pm

Its like all markets and bubbles, they are hot until they are not.

Think out long term say 5-7 years out. The mean interest rate has always been 8%, the funny thing with numbers is that they never lie, and things always return to mean.

google the law of mean revision.

if the mean used to be 3.5 for toronto or 5.0 for Van city, then the law stats that it must go well below that for that 3.5 or 5.0 number to remain constant. same thing is going down in the US right now.

Now what does a 3.0 income to valuations mean in toronto or 4.5 in Van city, it means a close to 40% decline and thats were we are headed.

The fundamentals have not changed, cost of borrowing has.

Once interest rates rise, and they will rise, whats that do to RE prices?

#103 bigrider on 12.07.10 at 2:50 pm

David Rosenberg today ” As it turns out and despite my earlier doubts, the bank turned out to be 100% in hiking rates early as to defuse what was possibly becoming a housing bubble in Canda. So far ,it looks like it has let the air out of the balloon gently without having to burst it.”

Seems like he has moderated his position on housing prices being over valued by 15 to 35%.

Is his statement even remotely possible? A defusing ex the burst ?

#104 GregW, Oakville on 12.07.10 at 2:55 pm

Hi Garth, fyi, Still flying? Have you had this happen to you due to your looks yet? (I though you could still opt-out to avoid the extra radiation, but then get your genitals squeezed? Both great choices, not! But don’t they/usa have a constitution to protect there rights???
Are those shin bones viable in the lower legs? )

Baywatch star claims she was singled out for a TSA full body scan because of her looks.
http://www.infowars.com/baywatch-star-claims-she-was-singled-out-for-a-tsa-full-body-scan-because-of-her-looks/

#105 luketheduke on 12.07.10 at 2:59 pm

Garth,Remax says up 3% next year in vancouver ,Ottawa,
Montreal…will you admit you are wrong …no shame there
big boy

#106 Pjwlk on 12.07.10 at 3:02 pm

Question for y’all: Is it possible to port a non-collateral mortgage from a lesser valued house to a house of greater value without having to pony up the difference of negative equity from the first house?

#107 GregW, Oakville on 12.07.10 at 3:04 pm

Hi Garth, Is this blog going to be safe from the PM soon?
“Broadcasters would have to prove to the FCC and the government they have made a meaningful commitment to public affairs and news programming (as determined by the government).”
FCC Push to Sovietize Broadcast Media in America
http://www.infowars.com/fcc-push-to-sovietize-broadcast-media-in-america/

#108 Chaos on 12.07.10 at 3:05 pm

Jesus H. Christ…

Just wait until the sheeple mob figures out that bullets are worth more than silver, gold and real estate.

Nobody will be safe on the streets of Laredo.

#109 Antonio on 12.07.10 at 3:09 pm

Prices will not come down till interest rates take an upward trajectory. Feels like 2012 at the earliest.

#110 poco on 12.07.10 at 3:10 pm

#49-live within your means–re CPP–you are right about the break even point –just passed your 76th birthday

according to Service Canada website max pension is $937.17 per month at 65 (2010)
lose 30% for taking at 60yrs = $656 per month-multiply that by 60months=$39,360.00
age 60 t0 65 you receive 39,360
age65 to 70 another $39,360 for a total of $78,720.00
start collecting at 65=$937.per month til age 70 works out to$ 56,220.00
looking at that, collecting early means you have more money and longer to invest, that is, if you don’t need the money

#111 GregW, Oakville on 12.07.10 at 3:12 pm

Hi Garth, fyi Just something to think about. Who really knows? Also, Last week I did give $20 to ‘Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia that anyone can edit’, after looking up some medical stuff. I’d like them to sick around, how about you?

Assange Set Up By CIA Operative?
http://www.infowars.com/assange-set-up-by-cia-operative/
“one of the women has connections to the CIA…”

#112 Bill Grable on 12.07.10 at 3:23 pm

“I’m an American, living in Seattle, and I should say that each and every Canadian should stop and listen to what Garth has been saying for a while” – The American, from a VERY good earlier post.

Seattle VS Vancouver GDP was telling.
Thanks for the information.

People here in Vancouver are really not prepared for what is occurring.

Doesn’t seem to matter – City credit is trashed over Milly Waters, and we have the homeless problem, drug money laundering, Triads, but no sweat – we can find money for Bike Lanes.

Is there something being put in the water here in Vancouver?

This City is NUTS.

One addenda:

No wonder the people in Hawaii want to sell me the place we are staying in for the next three months.

My RE agent pal (* we are Frat Brothers – and he has 35 years RE experience all over California and now Hawaii) told me it is a disaster in the Islands, with thousands of properties being held off the market. You should see the Bank owned prices on Oahu, and even Maui and Kauai.

Soon coming – Vancouver.

Have a nice Winter, and Merry Christmas.

#113 BrianT on 12.07.10 at 3:26 pm

#97Incog-quite the impressive crash there-what is interesting is they hammer it hard and at best they keep it suppressed for a couple days (if that).

#114 Brad in Cowtown on 12.07.10 at 3:27 pm

For a Calgary resident like me, I can’t help but wonder what would be more damaging over the next 6 months to 24 months…?
a) People listening to Garth, avoiding a home purchase, only to find out he was wrong.
b) People Not listening to Garth, buying a home, and then finding out he was right.
I look at it this way, he was forecasting back in 08 that real estate in Calgary would be a bad choice. If you had purchased back in 08, depending on when you bought in, you could be up or down marginally today. So let’s call it break even. If you had a healthy down payment, your interest portion should be about the same as what you would have rented for had you not purchased. But you got the enjoyment out of the home for 2 years already. And you built up equity.

He keeps saying it’s cheap money beneath the foundation, and when the rates rise, the foundation will collapse. But today, it was announced that rates will stay put and are not going up any time soon…
“Not going up any time soon.” So variable rate mortgages will still be cheap this time next year, as far as I can see. He keeps saying rates will go up, but he never says why. It doesn’t make sense for rates to be increased if the economy keeps sputtering, and the economy will keep sputtering as long as our trading partners keep sputtering…

#115 Utopia on 12.07.10 at 3:34 pm

@#115 AG Sage on 12.06.10

Re#105 Utopia

Food commodities are up because China is buying every spare bit of them to feed 1.3 billion potential protestors. That’s not inflation, per se. Third world countries have suffered this for centuries: foreign money coming in and buying up their necessities. You probably reaped the benefits of the opposite for years and didn’t even know it. Shoe’s on the other foot now.
———————————————————-

AG Sage, I have to disagree with you there. Although there is significant buying coming out of Asia, the recent run-up in commodities has been almost purely speculative.

It is the reaction of inestors who believe that Bonds are in a bubble (and even if it is not a bubble the returns are totally insignificant, particularly as the decline of the dollar and therefore of buying power is eating away the wealth faster than teensy-weensy interest rates are building it).

It is an outcome of hot money looking for a better home and more lucratic investment opportunity and this does include some stimulus funds managed by US investment banks.

This commodity bull has also been borne out of a widespread belief that equity markets have topped and could experience a major bear market and concurrent to that a sense of disgust that stocks look to many to be manipulated. (Think plunge protection team here).

Let’s keep in mind that even insiders have pulled out of the equity markets to the tune of billions as they see topping action.

And finally, this current run-up in commodities is taking place for substantially the same reason we are seeing Gold and other precious metals climb. Commodities represent hard assets, alternatives to financial investments and a stake in real production be it copper, wheat, cotton, silver or potash.

There is in fact a very strong coorelation between commodities and precious metals markets. To many investors these represent the ultimate form of secure investments in a world that will see shortages develop sooner than later.

Asian buying though is actually the last reason commodities are on a tear except for perhaps a few key items at present. Potash, Uranium and wheat all are seeing demand driven price rises. In wheats case actually there were legitimate fears of shortages due to Russian drought and fires in combination with Canadian wash-outs and mixed crop failures around the world.

China is a big story though and that country has a voracious appetite for almost everything. Speculation is just making them pay more for what they need.

So keep in mind that there has been absolutely no fundamental demand driven explosion or sudden population boom or even a huge increase in global demand for manufactured products. Any one of those things that might have caused the price of wheat to double, coffee to rise 70% or cotton to hit all time record highs have not been behind the activity in commodities over the last 6 months.

This is about speculation and a flight to security on the back of predicted future shortages that have not yet materialized but are certain to occur. These are investments that can hedge against currency devaluations and sovereign defaults and are the same fundamentals that are driving Gold prices higher.

Hope that helps.

#116 Hell in a Hand Basket on 12.07.10 at 3:35 pm

@#1 Joy

OMG! I never thought I would see The Venus Project mentioned here in the comments on Garth Blog! Way to go Joy!

#117 Bill Grable on 12.07.10 at 3:38 pm

Addenda: How BAD is it in the USA?

“The housing market will remain depressed, with record high foreclosure levels, rising mortgage rates and a glut of distressed properties dampening the market for years to come, industry experts predicted on Tuesday.

“We don’t see a full market recovery until 2014,” said Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac, a foreclosure marketplace and tracking service. He said that he expected more than 3 million homeowners to receive foreclosure notices in 2010, with more than 1 million homes being seized by banks before the end of the year.”

>>Vancouver….? Hellooooooo

http://tinyurl.com/2bhx7br

#118 Trino Tuta on 12.07.10 at 3:49 pm

Thanks for writing about Regina Garth. Everybody here is drinking the RE kool-aid, and they seriously think
that it is different here. You know , Regina, with it’s amenities, young population, and entertaining landscapes…. I don’t get it.

Thanks to Greater Fool I held from purchasing a house in Regina about a year ago. Prices have only gone up ever since and friends constantly ask me why I didn’t make the purchase, and see the RE bubble argument as crap.Nobody here believes (or understands) that the RE market is cyclical and that prices are at a peak. Everybody is just counting minutes and seeing their house
price go up and up and up.

In my opinion, the peak of all delusion here in Regina is a new development called Harbour Landing.
It is a beautiful and trendy development of typical cookie cutter houses with stainless stuff and granite countertops… the ones that (as you point out) make young couples dream and boomers drool. They sell for 400,000$ + …a bit expensive, but hey…nothing that a quick visit to RBC or CIBC can fix. The thing here is, that harbour landing is located right beside (literally, no kidding) the airport. Please , anyone find a city with an upscale residential area right beside the airport…anyone? Who would build an upscale residential area right beside the airpot? Who in this world would buy a 400K “house” right beside an airport and expect land values to keep going up ?

Due to the flat topography of Regina, there are no natural barriers to contain the sound coming out of turbines and turboprops. There are also no artificial barriers (buildings) to contain the sound either. If you live anywhere in the south or east of Regina, you will hear the turbofans and turboprops roar every single time an airplane takes off or lands. I’ve lived in several places in the south
and not hearing the planes is impossible. You would have to be deaf. Of course, some local forums (http://www.riderfans.com/forum/showthread.php?t=47031) praise the project, and whoever brings up the question of airplane noise is shut down with an argument
such as “I’ve lived in the south for years and I have never heard any airplanes”.

Ah the delusion…in Regina it evens defies the laws of physics.

#119 Hell in a Hand Basket on 12.07.10 at 3:51 pm

@ #27 Cookie Monster

Pray tell, what prevents any of the previous two capitalisms from turning into the 3rd type? Laws? If so then what prevents any law or regualtion from being altered and repealed as we have seen so many times in the past by the monied classes?

This is the fundamental problem, capitalism is not practice by definition, the profit motive provides strong incentive to devolve capitalism into corporatism and cronyism.

The end point of any capitalist business is a monopoly or a cartel. The onlt things that prevent this natural end point are laws. Laws are not permanent and can be repealed or watered down given the right incentive.

The accumulation of capital leads to this massive inequality we see between the haves and have nots. Corporations and rich individuals have influence out of proportion to their numbers due to this wealth. We are in essence ruled by the wealthy.

#120 Robert James on 12.07.10 at 3:53 pm

#104 luketheduke That was a joke ,right?? Surely you do not believe what Re/Max says,, do you?? or any other R/E pumper, realtors included.. Here is why.. Here is some priceless stuff from Bob Rennie the “condo king” regarding the OV in the Vancouver.. I do not know how these azz clowns can live with themselves after something like this,but I guess they are in the Real Estate industry which is an industry based on lies and hype in my humble opinion..http://www.canada.com/vancouvercourier/news/story.html?id=574e3848-675a-4101-8107-11254fba2428

#121 Potato on 12.07.10 at 3:54 pm

#100 bigrider: “Is his statement even remotely possible? A defusing ex the burst ?”

It’s possible, but I think it’s highly unlikely. Housing in Vancouver and Toronto is highly over-priced right now. It got that way in part by speculators buying purely on the hopes of it continuing to go up. That’s a very unstable position to be in: it won’t take much for things to start a spiral downward. Even just watching prices not go up for a year or so will cause some speculators to re-think their purchase and bail, absent all other external factors.

Plus, the market moves slow. It’s going to take years to unwind, even in the “crash” scenario. The apparent stability of the last few months is too short a time-frame to say if we’re really looking at a true plateau, or if it just takes a while for momentum to swing from positive to negative.

Anyway, to me it doesn’t matter to much: whether a crash or a long, drawn-out period of stagnation, we’re better off renting where we are. I’ve done the math, and prices would have to go up ~4% per year or more before owning starts to make sense.

#122 Hell in a Hand Basket on 12.07.10 at 3:57 pm

@Midas
Joy never mentioned marxism. You assumed that since she doesn’t like capitalism she must automatically be a marxist.

How about you find a moment to put aside you sarcasm and think fo a way you can use capitalism to fully employ and feed the world’s population sustainably.

#123 Sail1 on 12.07.10 at 3:59 pm

Housing market to see ‘greater stability’

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/housing-market-to-see-greater-stability/article1827679/

#124 Oasis on 12.07.10 at 4:00 pm

#97 Incognito on 12.07.10 at 2:17 pm
____________________________________

poor incognito.. such a pathetic attempt to sound negative on the commodity markets that are making all time highs. are you short? lol and getting wiped out?

what ‘s going lower, is the poor bond market, now down over 2.5 full points on the long bond. that’s a complete collapse.

#89 Bill ( Peterborough) on 12.07.10 at 1:14 pm
________________________________________
very well said.

#125 Junius on 12.07.10 at 4:04 pm

#113 Brad in Cowtown,

You asked,”For a Calgary resident like me, I can’t help but wonder what would be more damaging over the next 6 months to 24 months…?
a) People listening to Garth, avoiding a home purchase, only to find out he was wrong.
b) People Not listening to Garth, buying a home, and then finding out he was right.”

Isn’t the answer based on the opportunity costs? You have to weigh the difference between investing in a home in this market versus investing in other asset classes or paying down debt. The other issue is the fact that home investing lacks liquidity.

Based on the appreciation of the home market over the past decade along with all the warning signs out there it is amazing that you would even ask the question. The best that home ownership is going to do is go sideways for a long time and leave you with no liquidity.

No-brainer. Put your money someplace else for now.

#126 Sean R on 12.07.10 at 4:07 pm

Definitely worth a look : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uf5VEG56YC0

#127 GregW, Oakville on 12.07.10 at 4:10 pm

Hi Garth, fyi (Doesn’t the Canadian Government what people/kids to be informed and use there own heads. It seems not.

Being informed might protect you, remaining uninformed will not! Look stuff up yourself.

If I was being coerced as a 12 year old against my wishes and knowledge, at school, I suspect I might spout ‘threatening behavior’ too! Was he being pushed/held to?
What were the cops thinking, or were they thinking and informed?

“according to the Canadian Law it was the school officials that the police should have arrested because the school officials violated this young man’s freedom of choice.”

article)

Police Arrested Twelve Year Old Boy for Refusing Vaccine at School.
http://www.infowars.com/police-arrested-twelve-year-old-boy-for-refusing-vaccine-at-school/

(When did it become ok to inject mercury, a known brain toxin into human beings, even so-called small amounts???! (“thimerosal” is ~49% methyl-mercury)
‘Some vaccines that do not use thimerosal as a preservative may have trace amounts of thimerosal introduced during the manufacturing process. The amount of thimerosal in the new pediatric/adolescent formulation of Engerix-B (<1 µg of thimerosal/0.5 mL dose of vaccine) has been reduced by more than 96%')

#128 Junius on 12.07.10 at 4:10 pm

#108 Antonio,

You said, “Prices will not come down till interest rates take an upward trajectory. Feels like 2012 at the earliest.”

Lots of economist are projecting some modest increases starting next year. However we are still looking at historically low rates unless something happens in the international system.

The really interesting thing will be to see how long people who have to sell or want to sell hold out. Many have de-listed hoping the market will be back in the Spring. There may be more people who have to sell if the economy stays sluggish. This could start a downward cycle that could push prices down considerably.

#129 Junius on 12.07.10 at 4:14 pm

#93 lorne and #102 bigrider,

Rosenberg’s operative sentence is, “So far, it looks like it has let the air out of the balloon gently without having to burst it.”

Yes. So there is a bubble and it is being let out gently. Less pain and less panic. All good.

Doesn’t mean that prices will not revert to historicals in the long term. Just means it is happening slowly and will hopefully do less damage.

DOES not mean there is no bubble.

#130 BigAl (Original) on 12.07.10 at 4:16 pm

#52 Moneta on 12.07.10 at 9:25 am.#23 Sunburn on 12.07.10 at 1:11 am
———–What did they expect? Middle class takes on 145K mortgage in Spain. Ding. Ding. Ding. They just want a free lunch.
=======================================

By “want a free lunch”, who do you mean?

The greedy developer (if it was a new unit) who simply was asking the “market price”?

The greedy previous owner (if an old home) who simply was asking the inflated “market price”?

The greedy banker who quite blatantly and obviously didn’t do their homework (or conveniently overlooked the info) on these mortgage applicants’ ability to pay?

Everyone wanted their “free lunch” at this Spanish housing boom party – why shouldn’t everyone suffer as well. Don’t be fooled by this establishment line tut-tutting the average joe whose the end user in this game stuck with the bill.

#131 TheBigLebowski on 12.07.10 at 4:16 pm

#97 Incognito ,
If they went straight up every day, even people like you would figure out it was a good investment and own it. But instead only people who can decipher long term trends will be protected and i feel saddened that may not include you and your family.

#132 BigAl (Original) on 12.07.10 at 4:17 pm

*spelling in previous: who’s, not whose

#133 Utopia on 12.07.10 at 4:24 pm

When I read the daily posts I always begin at the end and work my way backwards. I don’t know if anyone else does that. Maybe I just prefer to see the rebuttals and outcomes of the daily scraps and arguments from the perspective of where they conclude rather than where they started.

Eventually I make my way down to post #1 but not always.

#134 David B on 12.07.10 at 4:29 pm

$700 Billion dollar deal to save the USA on the table

$600 + Billion dollar deal on the table to save Europe.

And here in Canada …. Things are great in the Kingdom of Steve.

#135 Prof ANON on 12.07.10 at 4:35 pm

@113 Brad in Cowtown (and pretty much everyone else living in the general area).

Here is one reason to be afraid of the near-term economic future:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2010/12/Pages/2011-Outlook-for-Canadian-Natural-Gas.aspx

#136 RickOShea on 12.07.10 at 4:35 pm

Delusions indeed…

Nice picture though — a glimpse into the world were economists direct movies in addition to providing us with astute insights into all things ‘economic’ [snicker]

#137 Bill ( Peterborough) on 12.07.10 at 4:40 pm

Re # 28 Nosty

Fema camps
—————————————————————-
Check out operation

DELETED. I let you back in the garden. Don’t cover it up with tinfoil. — Garth

#138 GregW, Oakville on 12.07.10 at 4:41 pm

Hi Garth, fyi Are you paying attention?
What kind of world will your family wake up in?
What are you going to do today?
Do you care to have rights and freedoms and what are you going to do to protect them now!

ctvtoronto.ca
“The G20 summit regulation that expanded police search powers entrapped legitimate protesters and “likely” violated the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, Ontario’s ombudsman said Tuesday.”

http://news.sympatico.ctv.ca/home/g20_law_gave_cops_wartime_power_ombudsman_says/6cbdd0cc

#139 Dan in Victoria on 12.07.10 at 5:01 pm

Bill @ 89
Merry Christmas to you too Bill.
Stick around.
Good post, but it made me think of the reindeer paradise.
http://www.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF16/1672.html
This is an excellent short read,
Then watch this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEokUVnVWe4&feature=related
Then watch this, I posted the calm version…..
You think any of these people will understand?
Its a long hill to climb.

#140 Moneta on 12.07.10 at 5:08 pm

By “want a free lunch”, who do you mean?

The greedy developer (if it was a new unit) who simply was asking the “market price”?

——–

Name me a time in history when the average Joe could own 2 homes and a funded retirement… the current retirees who benefitted from the boomer bulge supporting their entitlements.

Anyone middle class buying a second home in Spain on credit was expecting the free lunch to continue.

#141 Trino Tuta on 12.07.10 at 5:09 pm

Sorry for the spelling errors (it’s –> its* airpot –> airport* evens –> even*)

#142 Moneta on 12.07.10 at 5:14 pm

By “want a free lunch”, who do you mean?

The greedy developer (if it was a new unit) who simply was asking the “market price”?
——
I feel bad for all those who got the wool pulled over their eyes and I still believe most did not have the financial acumen to make the decisions they faced but it does not change the fact that they felt entitled and never questioned the sustainability of their lifestyles.

#143 Moneta on 12.07.10 at 5:17 pm

I guess it’s time to sell my materials ETF and buy a second home in the US.

#144 Edmontonian on 12.07.10 at 5:25 pm

I must agree with # 43 Mark in Edmonton. Edmonton is definatley going through a huge consumer bubble correction, in addition to a RE correction. The popualtion of this city must have gone down 5% or more. There are close to 15,000 listings on the Kijiji under Housing.
The price of retail/office space DT Edmont has plunged to 2003 price levels after having a dramatic surge. I can’t believe there is still huge office tower redone in 2003 on 112 ST & Jasper-still completely empty without 1 business in it! Crazy!

#145 SK on 12.07.10 at 5:33 pm

Uh-oh gloom and doomers … Things are looking up for Saskatchewan!

http://www.leaderpost.com/business/report+says+solid+economic+performance+will+boost+Regina+housing+activity/3940787/story.html

Again, I don’t expect to see any replies posted to this as I understand your difficulty comprehending non-sensationalist articles backed by real figures.

Cheers.

Re/Max projection = ‘real figures’? Has yer brain frozen up, prairie boy? — Garth

#146 Weeping in Windsor on 12.07.10 at 5:39 pm

I really can not tell you what I find more amusing, the picture you posted of Superman today or what is online in the Windsor Star newspaper.

http://www.windsorstar.com/business/Home+sales+grow+Windsor+Essex/3939796/story.html

“After a prolonged period of economic downturn, the market is finally poised for modest growth,” says the Re/Max report.

#147 AG Sage on 12.07.10 at 5:39 pm

>#97 Incognito on 12.07.10 at 2:17 pm

Investing in commodities is like back surgery . . . an exercise in pain management.

>#114 Utopia on 12.07.10 at 3:34 pm

Yes, the speculators certainly are involved, but I’d argue that’s under the meme of shortages somewhere. There always seems to be a story behind it to get the ball rolling. An excuse of sorts.

None of these things has to do with the size of the money supply. Maybe the velocity, to a small degree . . .

#148 BrianT on 12.07.10 at 5:40 pm

#118Hell-there are cultural differences-not every government is corrupt. To a certain extent all citizens bear partial responsibility-you are not going to have honest government with a very dishonest citizenry. Let’s face it-when someone throws out the term “Conspiracy Theory” probably half the time they know where the truth is, but they feel the lie is more personally advantageous so they run with it. The more your society is like that, the more dishonest and corrupt your government will become. Look at Iceland: they got taken, but look at how they responded-with a stance of honour and integrity. Contrast that with many other cultures.

#149 AG Sage on 12.07.10 at 5:50 pm

#52 Moneta on 12.07.10 at 9:25 am
#23 Sunburn on 12.07.10 at 1:11 am

I was trying to figure out how they managed to pay off only 50k of the 300k mortgage over 20 long years. More’s the point, wouldn’t the house have cost something more like 230k 20 years ago, but now the mortgage is 250k. Given their history of paying off mortgages I can’t see how they could have expected to ever own, outright, either of these properties.

These stories always end up as head scratchers. Why was this household chosen by the press being one of the biggest questions.

#150 Paolo on 12.07.10 at 5:58 pm

Just what we needed…a 2% rise in the cost of homes for the GTA forecast for 2011.

Hot off the press 27 minutes ago:

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/902689–modest-rise-expected-in-toronto-housing-prices-next-year

Geez, people are right.
RE always goes up!
How can one lose?

#151 Pr on 12.07.10 at 6:11 pm

Now teach your children, dont work, dont go to school , buy one are two house and wait! (You can watch tv when you wait!) That is the new way to make a ton of money! Thanks Mark Carney and friends! I need more money can you drop interst rate to lest say 0.0000000001% it wil be great, thanks in advance Steven H.

#152 Helicopter Ben on 12.07.10 at 6:15 pm

The $600US billion QE is leveraged by the banks at 100:1 (currency devaluation). Need evidence? Watch commodity price points.

Long-term (5 yrs.) policy is to inflate all the debt (mortgage) problems away. There will be a time when a prudent house buying strategy will be load up on debt and pay-off with inflated dollars.

#153 eaglebay on 12.07.10 at 6:23 pm

#91 Scott
To buy physical gold or silver check this site:
http://www.europac.net/
They do deal with Canadians.

Especially the gullible ones. — Garth

#154 Cookie Monster on 12.07.10 at 6:36 pm

Hell in a handbasket is exactly where we’re heading if communists like yourself continue to have their way with governments. Canada has become a socialist republic heading for disaster because of all the bleeding heart alturist commies like yourself with your hair brained ideas of equality and utopia by stealing from the rich and consuming their capital driven by ignorant ideals and jealousy.

This country is a dismal disgrace, Potash was just the latest example of economic fascism. The road to hell is paved with good intentions so show me a planned economy that has succeeded and demonstrate the economics and incentives for people to make it work. I could talk endlessly about how free market capitalism works, the morality of it and the natural incentives of the system.

The third capitalism in the article I referenced is the only immoral capitalism because the government is involved. If managerial capitalism destroys a company then so be it, the free market will fill the void if the void needs filling.

The hatred you have for capitalism is misdirected. Your anger should rightly be focused on the government, the men with guns who write the laws, the state extortionists, the monopoly holers, the central bankers and money printers, the fractional reserve FIAT money bankers, the deficit makers, the spenders, the looters, the fools, the politicians and war mongers etc… These are the oppressors, not business men like Bill Gates.

The honest businessman earns revenues in a voluntary free exchange market. A wealthy honest businessman earns his money by providing something of value in return for it. Society chooses to patronize a businessman or his products. Laissez faire capitalism is the only moral political system. Your socialism is immoral, Socialism demands force. It will not work without guns. Capitalism requires individual freedom, liberty and property rights.

That was a parody, right? — Garth

#155 Oasis on 12.07.10 at 6:48 pm

#91 Scott
To buy physical gold or silver…

either Kitco in montreal, or if in toronto, visit the scotiabank down town. either one, you can walk out with your gold.

#156 Mr Lee on 12.07.10 at 6:53 pm

Once again, to all the cheer leaders out there. What make Canada different from the EU, GB, Japan and the good old USA when it comes to a realestate correction?

What is it? What is different here, what do we have that make us immune? Has our over reliance on our largetst trading partner evaporated? Have we some sort of independent viable economic structure in place that is supporting our realestate values?

What?

#157 Ret on 12.07.10 at 6:54 pm

#109 Poco Re: CPP

As in my post yesterday (#151), what if you only live to 70 yo? If you waited to 65 to claim CPP you are down $22,500 in your example over the early claimer. From 60 to 70 years of age, almost 17% of us will hit the mat and take a full count.

Oh well, the government will just pay out that extra $22,500, that could have been yours, to someone with better luck. Thanks for playing CPP roulette.

Maybe a female would be better off to wait to claim CPP as females on average live longer. My wife is considering this option or a claim at say 62.5 years. Males are disadvantaged statistically by CPP with respect to females. We contribute the same but are expected to live less.

When you claim CPP is basically up to you. The way it is set up, 1/2 of us will be winners and 1/2 will be losers.

Do check out the link. Sorry it is a US one. Maybe someone can post a better example.

http://www.lifeexpectancy.com/lifetable.shtml

#158 Confused in Victoria on 12.07.10 at 6:56 pm

Wow we are the only country where real estate is still going up – in the world!!!!

This is just amazing.

#159 Cookie Monster on 12.07.10 at 7:01 pm

That was a parody, right? — Garth
————–
Only if you find the truth mocking.

#160 Scott on 12.07.10 at 7:02 pm

— Especially the gullible ones. — Garth

I just want to know where I can buy at rates that are fair … where do you suggest Garth?

I just want to learn more about other investments aside from my RRSP’s. Maybe I have been a sheeple but I’m waking up or at the least trying to learn more about what’s happening around me and where I should put what little I do have to save (aside from paying off debt which is where the majority of my money is currently going)

I need advice and I’m asking for help even if it’s just to point me in the general direction I should be looking …

I keep hearing that silver is underpriced and thought maybe I’d look into it but I don’t know where to start. Google gives me a mass of sites that don’t look particularly trustworthy.

Good strategy. Know little. Buy stuff at its most expensive. Worked well for dot-com investors, so give it a whirl. — Garth

#161 Timing is Everything on 12.07.10 at 7:04 pm

#132 Utopia

Yup and sometimes I start at #1 for a few and then skip to the end and work my way back. I don’t know why. I just do.

#162 Scott on 12.07.10 at 7:04 pm

#154 Oasis either Kitco in montreal, or if in toronto, visit the scotiabank down town. either one, you can walk out with your gold.

What sort of commissions will they charge? Prices are fair (thanks for your advice I appreciate). I’m in Toronto.

#163 Junius on 12.07.10 at 7:05 pm

#155 Mr. Lee,

That would be nothing. Nothing makes is different.

Which is why it is just a matter of time.

#164 Bill ( Peterborough) on 12.07.10 at 7:08 pm

RE # 138 Dan in Victoria

Great read and video Dan. Easy to make money, just have to study human behaviour. The trick is to still have a conscience, morals and principles when all is said and done.

#165 Junius on 12.07.10 at 7:16 pm

#153 Cookie Monster,

You said, “The third capitalism in the article I referenced is the only immoral capitalism because the government is involved. If managerial capitalism destroys a company then so be it, the free market will fill the void if the void needs filling.”

Read it again. You have it backwards. Crony Capitalism as we have now is the control of the corporations by a small group of managerial elites who also game the political system. This is what happened with banking deregulation and the entire financial services industry. This is what is happening with companies spending millions on the Republican party who long ago gave up on free markets.

The free market stuff is just a myth. The market only stays “free” to the extent that there are gov’t regulations and rules that force corporations to compete.

The real advantage of capitalism over socialism is its power to innovate and create a more productive society. The same “top down” hierachial approach that makes socialist countries stagnant is also at work in our largest corporations.

Economic growth will not be achieved until our entrepreniurial class is unleashed. Our major corporations are cutting costs and sitting on cash. Our banks are not lending to small business. Until this changes we will be in a recession.

#166 Leanne on 12.07.10 at 7:24 pm

That’s not the Superman I remember from high school.

No wonder I hate reunions…

#167 K on 12.07.10 at 7:30 pm

God help me. Garth, everything you say makes sense. But I still want a house and I am scared I am going to be priced right out of the market if I don’t act soon! Prices in my area rose 9% this year and are projected to rise 5 % more in 2011.

So grow a set. Buy. — Garth

#168 Junius on 12.07.10 at 7:45 pm

#144 SK and #145 Weeping in Windsor,

Interesting to read the 2 articles together. Seems like RE Max has a coordinated national effort going out this week.

Interesting to note the localized theme of “it is different here” as they point to local economic activity as a sign of specific recovery. Clever and deceitful.

Note that the % increases are just arbitrary. Typical.

Love the way the posters describe this as “news”. Look back at Remax’s predictions for 2010 and they said the market would be strong through out the year. Opps. But of course, these predictions must be correct. Just like the US Re industry was before their crash.

#169 Karl Hungus on 12.07.10 at 7:46 pm

#64 The American

House prices in Edmonton have already fallen 20%.

#170 realpaul on 12.07.10 at 7:58 pm

BOC Carney’s futile attempt to stave off the obvious by again damping intrest rates is wildly irresponsible. With personal debt the highest in the developed world, national debt ranked as unsustainable and the real estate bubble setting up house in a universe all its own he chooses inaction to explain what is in fact ‘Dutch Disease’.

In Canada’s case this malady is incurable….there is no hope for resource wealth to go down during a perfect storm for appreciation of all things measured in USD at the time when that reserve currency is plummeting. The manufacturing sector was gutted decades ago under the Trudeau Liberals.

Holding rates down now cannot possibly resurrect an absent industrial base Mr Carney. There is little we can do to keep the C-Dollar from accelerating as demand for resources continues…….didn’t you all see this coming?

Holding rates down to prevent the dollar from rising in order to protect a gutted manufacturing sector from uncompetative pricing of product to a country (USA) that is not buying is chasing the wind Mr Carney. This ZIRP has been and will be remembered as the most destructive government program in the history of this country. They have bound the citizens with debt at a time when revenue is shrinking. The taxes that will have to be collected to pay off the burgeoning debt will further beggar the taxpayer at a time when his/her cost of living from price inflation is escalating.

The future sucks for a lot of people.

#171 Hell in a Hand Basket on 12.07.10 at 8:03 pm

@ BrainT #147
To paraphrase George Carlin, when you have an ignorant public, you’re going to get stupid ignorant leaders. Iceland had the balls to get up and tell their government and the rest of the EU that they were not going to be on the hook for their Banks mis-dealings. Too bad the American people couldn’t do the same.

#172 jess on 12.07.10 at 8:10 pm

These settlements are part of the government’s emphasis on combating health care fraud. One of the most powerful tools in that effort is the False Claims Act, which the Justice Department has used to recover approximately $4.6 billion since January 2009 in cases involving fraud against federal health care programs. The Justice Department’s total recoveries in False Claims Act cases since January 2009 have topped $5.8 billion.

Settle False Claims Act Cases
In Past Two Years, Civil Division & U.S. Attorneys Have Recovered More Than $9 Billion in Cases Alleging False Claims and Fraud Against the Government

As part of these settlements, the Ven-A-Care whistleblowers will receive approximately $88.4 million.
450m. is in the whistleblower fund
==================
http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/2010/December/10-civ-1398.html

#173 avenirv on 12.07.10 at 8:11 pm

i am a little late but you guys just proved yesterday that foreign buyers supporting the VA market is not a legend.

#174 prollywrong on 12.07.10 at 8:14 pm

Great website, great posts, great comments. Lots of useful info here!

I just plugged some numbers into an amortization calculator to see if I should buy a home now (not as an investment, but as a place to live in for a long while), or wait for some kind of future price correction.

Scenario 1 Buy Now (at inflated prices)

Let’s say I buy a home for 500,000.00 in the Fraser Valley. I put 100,000.00 down. I have a 25 year mortgage that averages 4% interest (stay with me here).

I will pay:

230,664.00 Interest
400,000.00 Principal
630,664.00 Total

Scenario B: Wait for a 20% price correction as interest rates rise, etc.

I now buy the same home for 400,000.00 Subtract the 100,000.00 down as before. But this time, interest rates average 8% for the term of the 300,000.00 mortgage.

Now I pay:

385,680.00 Interest
300,000.00 Principal
685,680.00 Total

The interest rate difference, even with a price correction of 20%, adds another 55,016.00 dollars to the total paid for the home. Plus, I’ve paid substantially more (155,016.00) in interest to the banksters.

So, even waiting for a significant (20% is pretty significant) price correction on the overvalued homes available today, it makes more sense for me to buy now at lower interest rates.

What am I missing? All comments are appreciated but please be gentle…I’m new to this!

Your 4% mortgage may renew at 8%, dropping the value of the property to $400,000, wiping out your equity and leaving the debt. Keep reading. — Garth

#175 realpaul on 12.07.10 at 8:14 pm

Re Max to the rescue……….House prices will continue decline DESPITE slowing sales. The state that ‘scarcity’ will propel buyers into a frenzy.

http://www.househunting.ca/edmonton/Home+prices+expected+keep+rising+next+year/3938900/story.html

Good old RE Max…..I needed a laugh.

#176 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.07.10 at 8:24 pm


#89 Bill (Peterborough) — Nice to see you let out of the Bad Dog Box! You are free to roam the jungles of Never Never ‘net land, where nothing is real anymore!

A very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and yours!

#142 Carioca Canuck — “This will end just fine, Garth.”

It will end nicely for Chindia, Russia, Mongolia etc. when the cycles have completed their switch from west to east, in two decades or less. Has no bearing on what humans say or do, just a simple fact of life.

#150 Pr — “. . . thanks in advance Steven H.”

Good post. In one of Harper’s other agendas, there was a great Letter to the Editor in the KDC today, which focused on Bill C-36, or Canada’s open door policy to give free access to Monsanto.

Headline pretty much says the same as what has happened in the US: “Bill C-36 would give too much power to ‘inspectors’ “.

As most here already know, citizens in the US are not permitted to grow veggie / fruit / organic gardens on their own property any more.

If they do, and are snooped on by neighbors or caught by inspectors, those homeowners are liable for prosecution for growing their own food.

Not sure whether this includes fruit trees; may cover seeds, that’s all.

Best thing: When the next federal election is called; mobilize friends, relatives, neighbors, start petitions saying how the CPC has continually lied, choose a party (whether one likes that party or not is irrelevant, as the greater good must be taken into account), then get to the voting booths, and drive others who cannot get to one.

It’s about time we stood up for our own country, as much as the Europeans are doing.

#177 Hell in a Hand Basket on 12.07.10 at 8:30 pm

@ Cookie Monster #153
You should tag that with “Warning Pro-Capitalist rant”. Again with the assumptions. Are you one of those better Dead than Red people?

Ok, I’m an altruist and a bleeding heart because I think people should have access to life’s necessities. I use the word “share.” I am horrible I know. You read a lot of Ayn Rand? Sounds like it.

When are rich people going to realize that they are rich because the resources and services this countries offers and not in spite of it? Rich people complain about taxes and having to support the less well off, well you wouldn’t be rich if you were not here. You are part of a nation and therefore part of a community; you are not just an individual. If you cannot take pity on your fellow man in your race for riches then a government will do it for you, because to do less and there would be anarchy.

How long would your business last in the face of hordes of the poor, hungry and dispossessed? Hate to break it to you but rich people are a minority and the difference between a civil society and a full scale riot in which us communist-types burn down your business? About nine meals.

China seems to be doing pretty well, but strictly speaking China is more capitalist than the US and Canada is lately. But still they have a strong state rife with central planning. But arguing against capitalism is not necessarily arguing for communism, there are not two sides of the same coin. There are other coins altogether. So save your knee jerk accusations.

What I’m telling you is that the third stage of capitalism is the end stage of capitalism. You can have all the laws and good intentions you like but the profit incentive will corrupt it to the core. How could it not?

My anger is not misdirected. It is focused on the root causes of this calamity. I ask again, how do you fix such a system? Through a patchwork of more legislation or more paper proclamations?

The key word in your last paragraph is “honest”. I agree if everyone could operate above board then the system would work. But there are distinct advantages to be gain by circumventing the controls.

Back in the 90’s how many people went to jail over the savings and loans scandal? Hundreds.

How many people went to jail over the sub prime lending fiasco? Nobody.

The banks and government are robbing you in broad daylight but nobody is doing anything. We still vote for the same old parties and pay the same old (but increasing) taxes. Maybe we’ll get it when we have nothing left to give.

All government requires force. Did you forget that capitalism also requires the freedom to enter into contracts? Do you think that contract law does not require force to get both parties to abide? Property rights is primarily the right to restrict access, does that not also require force to enforce?

Laissez faire capitalism is only as moral as the participants and given enough money and capital, that doesn’t amount to much morality.

#178 Moneta on 12.07.10 at 8:36 pm

What is it? What is different here, what do we have that make us immune?
———-
We have resources. Alberta will sell its oil and share the profits with Ontario and Quebec.

We’re one big happy family here in Canada.

#179 jess on 12.07.10 at 8:37 pm

years of delusional prices

ENFORCEMENT PROCEEDINGS – In the Matters of Banc of America …
7 Dec 2010… now known as Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated,

According to the SEC’s Order against BAS, from at least 1998 through 2002, officers of BAS at the Municipal Reinvestment and Risk Management Group (the Desk) participated in and condoned improper bidding practices involving the temporary investment of proceeds of tax-exempt municipal securities in reinvestment products, such as guaranteed investment contracts (GICs), repurchase agreements (Repos), and forward purchase agreements (FPAs). These practices affected the prices of the reinvestment products and jeopardized the tax-exempt status of the underlying municipal securities.

The Order finds that bidding agents steered business to the Desk by providing information on competing bids and deliberately obtaining off-market courtesy bids or purposefully non-winning bids so that the Desk could win the transaction. As a result, the Desk won the bids for 88 affected reinvestment instruments. In return, the Desk steered business to those bidding agents and submitted courtesy and purposefully non-winning bids upon request. In addition, those bidding agents were at times rewarded with, among other things, undisclosed, gratuitous payments and kickbacks…”

#180 poco on 12.07.10 at 8:38 pm

#156 Ret
I’m all in for taking CPP at 60yrs –my post wasn’t that clear —i was trying to show that after 10yrs+ you have more money and more potential investment money than waiting til 65yrs
again you’re right–how long will you live –nobody knows for sure

#181 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.07.10 at 8:45 pm

EVERYTHING IS GOOD. THIS CLOUD’S FOR YOU!

Global TV BC’s nooner with that cute chick was up to her usual, real estate-pumping tricks, this day.

She was dining off Remax’s latest Greater Vancouver real estate price and sales forecasts for 2011. It’s lookin’ good, she said! That’s why this story, I mean PR piece, was the lead! On a famously legit news show!?

Vancouver’s newly-unleashed bucket of instant good property fortune comes thanks to an unknown number of rich economic refugees escaping China’s well-forecast real estate bubble that promises to unsettle feng shui everywhere.

If these refugees’ purchases manage to skew significantly upward Vancouver RE prices, then the locals will have brought it upon themselves for playing along.

Why? A dying economy, in our principal trading partner, the US! Alternatives, such as a “heathy” real estate market won’t suffice! Are you kidding?

A reminder, if you please: Big Ben Bernanke broadly hinted on Sunday’s 60 Minutes interview that America is in for some very bad years up ahead: “We so screwed,” was his predominent facial expression.

So, the bottom line for all of you RE types is this. Mr. Benanke will fail to contain interest rates, and they will rise, sooner than we all think. When that happens it will stick a fork in this property parade of the crainially-challenged, room-temperature, slaves-to-the-bank legions of fools in Vancouver and right across our fair land.

As a matter of fact, a look at today’s yields on 10-year bonds in Canada, the US, EU and UK foreshadows bad stuff (higher mortgage rates) coming our way, soon.

Look. See the rate-clouds piling up, Mr. and Mrs. First-time Buyers? This cloud’s for you!

Another way to slow down this real estate madness is for prospective buyers to take matters into their own hands, by NOT making offers.

Just get a grip and sit on the sidelines. If enough of you do it for long enough, then prices will come down.

And, who knows? Maybe some pretty Greek popsie will show up, adding to the fun and frolic, bearing gifts: how about a blown-out EU, its raggedy-assed currency, and a dollop of hyperinflation! Nice!

Should that occur, and the dust finally settles, real estate will be going for pennies on the dollar, that is if there’s still a dollar around!

But that’s another issue, right? Right!

#182 Ben on 12.07.10 at 8:46 pm

I don’t know… maybe we all should have been on the bullet train instead of hoping it would make a Garth stop.
As said earlier but in different text… a good percentage of us will be hitting the mat and take a full count before this thing stops.

#183 Cookie Monster on 12.07.10 at 8:55 pm

#165 Junius,
You said, “The third capitalism in the article I referenced is the only immoral capitalism because the government is involved. If managerial capitalism destroys a company then so be it, the free market will fill the void if the void needs filling.”
_______________
Sorry if I wasn’t clear that I switched focus to the second type of capitalism in the second sentence. I’m moving fast here try to keep up.

#165 Junius,
The free market stuff is just a myth. The market only stays “free” to the extent that there are gov’t regulations and rules that force corporations to compete.
__________________
OMG, are you serious?!

#184 AxeHead on 12.07.10 at 8:56 pm

CMHC describes a ‘balanced’ market as 30% of homes listed are selling.

Holy crap…that’s not the situation where I live (Alberta). The RE teeter totter here has a big fat ugly debt sitting on it and the sales guy on other end looks like Stuperman in the picture on this blog.

How about you folks?

#185 doctore on 12.07.10 at 8:57 pm

OMG, all the for sale signs on houses here in London have mysteriously disappeared!

Oh wait, its just the 10 ft of snow we have had here over the past few days.

#186 Herb on 12.07.10 at 9:00 pm

Cookie Monster,

are you a right wing truth twister maskerading as an “outspoken truth teller”, or are you just reciting the “capitalist” catechism because you don’t know any better?

#187 Junius on 12.07.10 at 9:21 pm

#173 avenirv,

Don’t you mean not happening as described? Or not possible?

Nobody has proved anything except people will believe virtually anything that confirms what they want to believe.

#188 jess on 12.07.10 at 9:23 pm

the chinese manufacturers should be scared.
A Review Of The Best Robots of 2009
Japanese Industrial/Manufacturing Robots

This one is use in fast food
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sVOSlUn7e0&feature=player_embedded

The robots are fully autonomous, taking a customer order and cooking it from start to finish. This includes boiling the noodles, pouring broth, adding spices and toppings, and so on. The orders are complex too, requiring the robots to take customer preference for amount and type of sauce, salt, noodle, and so on. The finished product is handed off to a human server who brings the food to the customer’s table.

#189 Junius on 12.07.10 at 9:29 pm

#179 Cookie Monster,

You asked, “OMG, are you serious?!”

Yes. Have you spent a moments time studying the causes of the recent financial meltdown?

Have you read any of the good books out on it from Johnson’s “13 Bankers” to Cassidy’s “Why Market’s Fail” to Sorkin’s “Too Big to Fail.”

How about legendary mutual fund manager John C. Bogle’s “The Soul of Capitalism.”

Free Markets are a myth promoted by people who have no interest in free markets.

#190 Utopia on 12.07.10 at 9:34 pm

@ #134 Prof ANON wrote:

Here is one reason to be afraid of the near-term economic future:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2010/12/Pages/2011-Outlook-for-Canadian-Natural-Gas.aspx
——————————————————–

I read that article Prof Anon and spit up my coffee in giggles. It is complete bullshit if you don’t mind me saying. As if Canadian gas is no longer of interest and will soon be sent packing as a result of discoveries of massive new reserves in the US.

Not doubting the new reserves by the way but I don’t think for one single second that Gas out of Canada is about to be rejected at the border and returned to sender.

Same goes for fears the US will designate the Tar Sands as dirty fuel and refuse to import it…!!! Nonsense.

HaHaHa..! Too funny really. The CBC is an idiot on this topic too. But I guess that is the outcome of the cuts.

So you were just kidding right? Well here is U.S. energy policy 101 from the blunt end of the converstation for your reading pleasure. I call it the stroke and the stick.

(We like strokes, right?)

US Policy has always been to use up the other guys resources first and keep their own resources in the ground until needed strategically. To keep their own powder dry until the other guys stuff was all used up.

And I bet you thought that the Gulf disaster was really an accident too, right? Or that Presidential orders to stop drilling were for everyones protection and to ensure no danger to the environment?

Or that the environmental powers that restrict opening new mines in select areas, that prevent the cutting of forests due to bird habitat, that effectively stop new river dams and nuclear plants from being built and refuse access to resource rich and pristine environmental areas is all in the interest of other species and insects?

You must be kidding. Don’t make me laugh. The US wants that gas. They are just humping our leg to distract us while they confuse our minds with charts and graphs and maps to get it cheaper that is all.

Remember all the accolades we got in the past from them about how we were an “Energy Superpower”?

That is the stroking part by the way.

OK now puff up your feathers fellow Canucks. Did that not make you feel special, privelaged and important?

Idiots!

At the end of the day, they (The U.S.) will consume both Canada’s and Mexico’s energy supplies before digging deep and pulling their own stuff out of the ground. Just that simple. In the meantime they will do what it takes to get that resource at the best possible price. This is called a Poker game in some places.

That is just a smart strategic play on their part though.

You would do exactly the same too if you were the worlds policeman and you had a couple billion hungry shihtzus champing at your heels for world dominance.

#191 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.07.10 at 9:38 pm


Collection Call What’s the urgency? See the chart at the top — anyone can understand this.

Fort Lauderdale New cold record.

4:35 clip Storming the banks. 0:41 clip The US Fed is a pawn (porn?) shop.

Oil going up due to GW.

The BoA holds a ton of toxic mortgages, and now the reason.

1:35 clip Icelanders and now the Irish people realize they are NOT responsible for wasteful debts incurred by their govts., and neither are WE responsible for Harper’s goon-squad tactics and spending policies.

Transparency? In and from govt.? Pull the other one!

1:55 clip “Intended provocation by the US; US may be doing a Gulf of Tonkin Incident; Intent to get out of economic problems using Korea”. The US empire is crumbling, but it is not giving up without a fight.

2:43 clip 32 seconds when Nassim Taleb takes Bob Rubin to pieces.

2:08 clip Athens on fire.

Boycott of Wal Mart; would it work here?

Wall Street “Deutsche Bank, a German lender, has sold the Fed more than $290 billion worth of mortgage securities, Fed data through July shows. Credit Suisse, a Swiss bank, sold the Fed more than $287 billion in mortgage bonds.” Seems as if Wall Street screwed themselves.

Makes Sense When, not if, this happens a lot of people will be caught completely off-guard. This is not about the economy.

#192 Oasis on 12.07.10 at 9:38 pm

#162 Scott on 12.07.10 at 7:04 pm

take a look at kitco’s site. the price you see is the price you pay that instant.

https://online.kitco.com/bullion/completelist_USD.html#gold

the difference between them and Scotia, is the USD exchange. you get screwed there a bit. but, your other choice is to have kitco deliver it to you. so.. you’ll get charged for courier/insurance etc etc.

#193 Utopia on 12.07.10 at 9:41 pm

@ #181 VICTORIA TEA PARTY

…..I have to say I really enjoy your writing style.

#194 Junius on 12.07.10 at 9:47 pm

Cookie Monster,

Here is an instructive piece from Cassidy’s book,

“His intellectual thread begins with Adam Smith, the 18th- Century Scot who is considered by many as the father of Free Market economy praised. The narrative then covers a number of other economists, both known (Paul Samuelson, Robert Lucas, Milton Friedman, John Maynard Keynes and Hyman Minsky) and dark (John von Neumann, Gerard Debreu and Francis Bator). From this dizzying kaleidoscope, Cassidy developed his central theme: the core of the dogma was fallacy Free Market ideals of the assumption that people rationally self-interested economic actors whose behavior can be modeled with mathematical precision.

After all, as Cassidy writes, markets can only work if there is good information – can be just like the human body with oxygen function. And while information flows freely in some areas of the economy – trade in tomatoes, say – it is not true in many others, how crucial is to be funded. More-over, are people not robots: Show disciplines such as neuropsychology, that we have different parts of the brain are used in different situations, and find it difficult to difficult to do sums. Action, that rational individuals produce collectively irrational results, especially when feedback loops appear to Kick

This suggests that Cassidy academia to something he calls “reality-based economy”, and the analysis on the idea that humans are, well, they must embrace human basis. Meanwhile, governments must recognize that free-market principles for some time, but not always – and step in when there is a market failure, or where information flows are poor. This is essentially a manifesto, in other words, for a pragmatic, flexible nature of the political decision-making. And as such sounds sensible, even unremarkable given that Western governments have forced such pragmatism in the past year.”

#195 crazed and a little confused on 12.07.10 at 9:51 pm

Woww…there seems to be a few posts with a lot of desperation about being priced out forever…
gartth os not going to tell you to buy or selll directly.

he’ll just say we are at historic lows for interest rates and historic high for house prices. Yes that’s right historic….never in recorded history has it been this high

so do your math and make a decision…we are alll adults and we have to take responsibility fpr our actions.

i like to leave u with this thought.

” we cannot take our house/ gold/ stocks with us when we die” …so why stress over it

#196 Behavioral Finance on 12.07.10 at 9:58 pm

Mortgage interest deductibility will not end in US. That would make a lot of middle class people pretty upset. They may lower the threshold. Anyway they would create a tax credit that would be provided to everyone.

http://www.wibw.com/nationalnews/headlines/Mortgage_tax_break_in_the_crosshairs_111471649.html

#197 Alan on 12.07.10 at 10:01 pm

Junius

I see you a very popular guy today on the blog; My math is only to help you get an understanding of the Vancouver real estate market. Those that get my math example of 2+2=5 understand Vancouver Real Estate those that don’t, well they don’t. Get it?

#198 april on 12.07.10 at 10:01 pm

It would be interesting to know what percentage of the population believe the media RE pumpers spin. Somehow I’m inclined to think the majority. It’s incredible how stupid a whole population can be. Think of all those people in the US who saw and heard the warnings but choose not to believe and now regret it. Lots of RE pumpers on this site too. Easy to see thru’ them.

#173 avenirv
Don’t be such an idiot!

#199 Timing is Everything on 12.07.10 at 10:09 pm

#155 Oasis
#91 Scott

….”you can walk out with your gold.”

Make sure the desperados don’t get ya.

#200 Behavioral Finance on 12.07.10 at 10:19 pm

Just like that silver goes from 30 to 28.70. This silver market is definitely not for rookies. Things will get very volatile.

#201 brainsail on 12.07.10 at 10:20 pm

#190 Utopia

“Same goes for fears the US will designate the Tar Sands as dirty fuel and refuse to import it…!!! Nonsense.”

FYI

“Though Alberta has the second largest known oil reserves on Earth, it sells exclusively to American markets. A federal low carbon fuel standard, as the Ceres-RiskMetrics report argues, could potentially reduce U.S. oil sands demand a full one-third by 2030.”

http://thetyee.ca/News/2010/12/07/FightToStopStates/

#202 HouseBuster on 12.07.10 at 10:22 pm

#190 Utopia:

Idiots!

At the end of the day, they (The U.S.) will consume both Canada’s and Mexico’s energy supplies before digging deep and pulling their own stuff out of the ground. Just that simple. In the meantime they will do what it takes to get that resource at the best possible price. This is called a Poker game in some places.
——————————————————–
Ok… so we just move to the US when that happens…big deal

#203 dark sad person on 12.07.10 at 10:23 pm

The Bond Market “Collapse”

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=w1

I have to assume with the amount confidence the Bond Bear is growling out-that he/she is short the Long Bond-

Let’s see how that trade works out-

I would also have to assume that the same Bond Bear will be selling Gold into that “crash”as well-because Gold and the Long Bond have a very long history of trading in tandem-

Going back to a scary day in 2008-we can see it-

Pay attention to “Gold” and “Bonds” across the Globe-

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SOpd52_cqEI/AAAAAAAADbk/jVdT4LaIrAw/s1600-h/metals-2008-10-06.png

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SOpjmyN5ouI/AAAAAAAADb8/RC7RnMZ5U70/s1600-h/Financials-2008-10-06.png

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SOpmaM4CMaI/AAAAAAAADcE/r1kxa_2pCAY/s1600-h/USTreasuries-2008-10-06.png

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SOpnEM3bzeI/AAAAAAAADcM/Bw7FII1zj6E/s1600-h/UK-bonds-2008-10-06.png

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SOpnjKjWY-I/AAAAAAAADcU/Nh3ymE1VUFg/s1600-h/german-govt-bonds-2008-10-06.png

**********
Might also want to look at what happened to Commodities and Stock Markets that were screaming hot and had everyone screaming Hyper-inflation and Bond collapse-

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SOpcx7BDs0I/AAAAAAAADbU/g0k6o9fjdWA/s1600-h/grains-2008-10-06.png

*****************

We can go back much farther for more proof of Long Bond/Gold correlation-

we all know (at least i hope) the Long Bond and Gold were both in a Bear Market from 1980-2001
then this happened–
Pay attention to 2000-01-
This was a violent shift out of a “long” Bear Market and into a Bull Market for “both and as of today at least-
They “both” remain in a defined Bull trend-

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DTP30A28

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold%20jan%202008.gif

********************

So-according to the Bond Bears and according to the inverse of this data-

Here’s the Play–

Short Bonds-
Short Gold–
Buy RE-
Buy long the the Indexes and Commodities-
Besides-Stock Markets only go up right?
I mean-that’s why Money is moving out of Bonds and Gold and into risk-
And–the sheep are always right-of course-

I suppose they could decouple-
We’ll see–

#204 BrianT on 12.07.10 at 10:49 pm

#196Beh-the mortgage interest deductibility has nothing to do with the borrower, and it wasn’t the borrowers that demanded it be put in.

#205 Oasis on 12.07.10 at 10:51 pm

#203 dark sad person on 12.07.10 at 10:23 pm

we all know (at least i hope) the Long Bond and Gold were both in a Bear Market from 1980-2001
_____________________________________________________

the long bond, and gold, were both in bear markets…. 1980- 2001. now i know you’re clueless.

the long bond was in a massive bull market… from 1981 -2008. or don’t you know the difference between a bull and bear market?

gold has been in a bear market 1980-2001, and bull market from 2001-present.

oh well. i guess you don’t know the difference.

#206 Scott on 12.07.10 at 10:57 pm

I never said I was going to buy Garth … I’m just trying to educate myself (and I guess failing miserably?)

Silver and gold dropped in price today but isn’t it likely they will rally and continue to climb as investors get more and more scared over the stability of fiat currencies?

#207 Oasis on 12.07.10 at 11:01 pm

oh. and here is a chart of the LONG BOND 1978-present

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/us.pdf

PRICES went from just below 50 in 1980, to over 140 in 2008…. that’s a BULL market … or can’t you tell the difference??

#208 JB on 12.07.10 at 11:07 pm

#145 SK: A ReMax projection? If you take self-serving spin such as this as the Gospel, perhaps you should buy a new Duramax to fit right into with your new neighbors with $400,000 OSB digs in Regina. I was at the dealership today, they said it’s never been a better time to buy a quality Chevy truck. If your correlation between intellect and a “high paying job” is correct, you must work for peanuts buddy.

The first thing that will happen once the rest of North America recovers, all this new found Sask prosperity will take a flying (you know what) back to whatever better place they came from. Further more If China farts sideways, and there are many indications they’re about to break wind, the party will be over for your beloved Regina my friend. It all reminds me of an old saying, “You can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear” and that pig (Regina) was beaten with the ugly stick worse than a red-headed step child…

#209 BrianT on 12.07.10 at 11:07 pm

#166Leanne-LOL-good one.

#210 timbo on 12.07.10 at 11:21 pm

the US raised rates and this tidbit came out…..

http://www.realtytrac.com/content/press-releases/new-survey-reveals-58-percent-of-americans-expect-housing-market-to-recover-after-2012-according-to-trulia-and-realtytrac-6211

“Nearly half (48 percent) of homeowners with a mortgage admitted that they would consider walking away if their mortgage was under water, an increase compared with May 2010, when only 41 percent said they would consider walking away if their mortgage was under water. Interestingly, men (57 percent) are more likely than women (40 percent) to consider strategic default as an option for dealing with negative equity.”

if rates keep going up this will really get ugly.

what a broken system

#211 Prof ANON on 12.07.10 at 11:22 pm

@ #190 Utopia

The article doesn’t say anything about there not be interest in Alberta natural gas. It simply says we’ll have to sell it cheaper. This is a reasonable conclusion because a lot of money was spent building a pipline on the premise that US natural gas could undercut the price of imported natural gas.

#212 Taxpayer like everyone else on 12.07.10 at 11:26 pm

Hello Dark Sad @70. Thanks for continuing the discussion. Just to be clear I’ve pasted Shawn’s comment from a
few days ago.

“All Debt is someone eles’ savings (all debt represents a
borrowing from someone who has that debt as an asset
as their savings or investment on their personal or
corporate balance sheet).”

You will note, no mention of a dollar. Or cash. Or gold.

When reading your posts, I nod my head, again, maybe more….and then……disconnect….. There’s something
missing. So again, I will present an example, and ask a simple question of you.

Person A has 10k (cash) and deposits it in “New Bank”. He is the first customer. Person B comes in and asks for a loan of 8k which works with “New Banks” self-imposed
20% reserve. They approve the loan and actually give B
8k cash. He pays person C for the 2000 F150, and C
goes to the bank and deposits the 8k cash. I’ll end it
there, but we could of course go on.

The banks balance sheet shows 10K cash, 8k out in loans
and $18k deposits. Is this correct in your way of thinking?

#213 Utopia on 12.08.10 at 12:58 am

@ #201 brainsail……

Yup, I am aware of the debate. Thanks anyway. I very much doubt most of the proposed ideas will fly or turn into law though. Too much at stake and when it comes down to running your economy or having discussions over carbon content that increase input costs and harm growth, guess which will win out. I can see the debate merely shifting more to discussions of coal than so-called dirty Tar Sands oil in the end anyway.

Dirty or not, everyone needs it and it is a guarantee that oil will be coming out of the ground faster rather than slower over the coming decades. Until it too is gone.

#211 Prof ANON

The article doesn’t say anything about there not being an interest in Alberta natural gas.
——————————————————-

Of course not. Only the suggestion of alternate supply tells us they are looking for a better deal. I am still simmering over the royalty reductions in Alberta some time back and some stumpage issues in BC but hey it’s all water over the dam I suppose. Anyway, apologies if I came off sounding hot, I appreciated the article you posted like many, many others I read daily.

Some just trigger me. Keep them coming though.

Cheers.

#214 LB on 12.08.10 at 2:16 am

Well stated, “Junius”, “Hell in a Handbasket” and “Utopia”.

Thoughtful, articulate logic and analyses which we should all heed, especially “Cookie Monster”.

#215 dark sad person on 12.08.10 at 3:19 am

#205 Oasis on 12.07.10 at 10:51 pm

#203 dark sad person on 12.07.10 at 10:23 pm

we all know (at least i hope) the Long Bond and Gold were both in a Bear Market from 1980-2001
_____________________________________________________

the long bond, and gold, were both in bear markets…. 1980- 2001. now i know you’re clueless

*************

Yes i must clueless-you’ve told me that since day 1-

Obviously i explained it backwards to “your” thinking-calling it a bond bull-but in case you didn’t notice and it’s obvious you didn’t–

I was using Bond “Yields’ vs Gold-as you can see from the chart i showed??

Using 1980-2000 Gold/Bond(Yield) relationship and calling both Bears until 2001
Because–(Yield) is the attraction-
So obviously if the Bond (Price) was up (Yields) were in a Bear market and my chart shows it–no?

So- by showing the yield to explain the relationship to Gold as you can (hopefully) see in my chart-because-
Your chart does not correlate to the Gold price at all-it barely registers the Gold breakout in 2001-

Yield vs Gold price reacts very closely-or did you not notice??

I’ll show you in more detail-just cuz-it’s you-

As the yield curve 2008 rolled over from 4.5 to a low of 1.7 -then spiked to 3.5-as TARP and TALF etc. was announced-(Bonds sold off)
Gold went the other way-from a high of about 1000 to a low of about 750-
Fear went out the door and Greed was he play-
Inverse again-then as it ran out of gas-
Fear was back on-
Gold moved straight back up to 900
Yields plunged to 1-

Today Yields spiked–Gold fell–

I really don’t like commenting on a few day moves and calling anything-but-today–
You said Bonds were “collapsing”

I pointed out the easily noticed correlation between (Yields vs POG)

So if your call is right-then Gold should sell off as Interest rates climb “if” history is an indication-
Look what Volcker did to Gold in 1980 with high interest rates-
Why wouldn’t that happen again?
Who would bother with Gold if you can earn 20+% by holding Government Bonds?

Well–unless your right about imminent Hyper-inflation-

I wont call you clueless about that call-

I just think you’re dreaming in Technicolor-

“If” Markets take a dive-Bond (Yields) will fall as well-
Bonds in high demand-
Gold will likely sell off-because the Hyper-inflationists will puke it up-when they realize they have it assbackwards–

Although i think Gold will decouple from the Stock Market and Commodities at some point and move higher-just like it did in 1929-

From this chart-the only (floating) Gold price indicator gauge available-because Gold was Dollar locked-
This Miner fell from 90-60–before it decoupled and went on a rampage-
A 30% drop-which in today’s POG numbers is a drop of $420–no small amount-

I suspect something like that could likely happen again-

Because this is Deflation-
Like the 30’s were and look how well Gold did-
“If” you understand that the POG does not really matter-which you can see by the Dow/Gold chart-

See here–
As rates fell–Gold “spiked” measured against CPI-
As rates climbed later-Gold measured against CPT fell-
The only measurement possible–with a Dollar/Gold lock-

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/RbZwf5lgCXI/AAAAAAAAAN0/WJYO6dh-ogg/s1600-h/Gold-CPI-FF-Rate.png

Now-do you understand what i was trying to point out??

Don’t pull up a useless Chart and go off on some dumb f-k tangent-that has nothing to do with what was being described–

Pay attention to detail-
No wonder you got it all backwards-

#216 dark sad person on 12.08.10 at 3:19 am

#205 Oasis on 12.07.10 at 10:51 pm

#203 dark sad person on 12.07.10 at 10:23 pm

we all know (at least i hope) the Long Bond and Gold were both in a Bear Market from 1980-2001
_____________________________________________________

the long bond, and gold, were both in bear markets…. 1980- 2001. now i know you’re clueless

*************

Yes i must clueless-you’ve told me that since day 1-

Obviously i explained it backwards to “your” thinking-calling it a bond bull-but in case you didn’t notice and it’s obvious you didn’t–

I was using Bond “Yields’ vs Gold-as you can see from the chart i showed??

Using 1980-2000 Gold/Bond(Yield) relationship and calling both Bears until 2001
Because–(Yield) is the attraction-
So obviously if the Bond (Price) was up (Yields) were in a Bear market and my chart shows it–no?

So- by showing the yield to explain the relationship to Gold as you can (hopefully) see in my chart-because-
Your chart does not correlate to the Gold price at all-it barely registers the Gold breakout in 2001-

Yield vs Gold price reacts very closely-or did you not notice??

I’ll show you in more detail-just cuz-it’s you-

As the yield curve 2008 rolled over from 4.5 to a low of 1.7 -then spiked to 3.5-as TARP and TALF etc. was announced-(Bonds sold off)
Gold went the other way-from a high of about 1000 to a low of about 750-
Fear went out the door and Greed was he play-
Inverse again-then as it ran out of gas-
Fear was back on-
Gold moved straight back up to 900
Yields plunged to 1-

Today Yields spiked–Gold fell–

I really don’t like commenting on a few day moves and calling anything-but-today–
You said Bonds were “collapsing”

I pointed out the easily noticed correlation between (Yields vs POG)

So if your call is right-then Gold should sell off as Interest rates climb “if” history is an indication-
Look what Volcker did to Gold in 1980 with high interest rates-
Why wouldn’t that happen again?
Who would bother with Gold if you can earn 20+% by holding Government Bonds?

Well–unless your right about imminent Hyper-inflation-

I wont call you clueless about that call-

I just think you’re dreaming in Technicolor-

“If” Markets take a dive-Bond (Yields) will fall as well-
Bonds in high demand-
Gold will likely sell off-because the Hyper-inflationists will puke it up-when they realize they have it assbackwards–

Although i think Gold will decouple from the Stock Market and Commodities at some point and move higher-just like it did in 1929-

From this chart-the only (floating) Gold price indicator gauge available-because Gold was Dollar locked-
This Miner fell from 90-60–before it decoupled and went on a rampage-
A 30% drop-which in today’s POG numbers is a drop of $420–no small amount-

I suspect something like that could likely happen again-

Because this is Deflation-
Like the 30’s were and look how well Gold did-
“If” you understand that the POG does not really matter-which you can see by the Dow/Gold chart-

See here–
As rates fell–Gold “spiked” measured against CPI-
As rates climbed later-Gold measured against CPT fell-
The only measurement possible–with a Dollar/Gold lock-

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/RbZwf5lgCXI/AAAAAAAAAN0/WJYO6dh-ogg/s1600-h/Gold-CPI-FF-Rate.png

Now-do you understand what i was trying to point out??

Don’t pull up a useless Chart and go off on some dumb f-k tangent-that has nothing to do with what was being described–

Pay attention to detail-
No wonder you got it all assbackwards-

#217 David B on 12.08.10 at 11:02 am

HEALTH — December 6, 2010 at 5:00 PM EDT

Texas Considers Dropping Medicaid as States Face Budget Crisis
__________________

And just what do think is going to happen here in Canada, and will buying that overpriced home save you or your older family members?

#218 David B on 12.08.10 at 11:04 am

Addendum to last:

We are talking about oil rich cowboy shoot em up Texas! Are y’all listening Calgary?

#219 Timing is Everything on 12.08.10 at 1:05 pm

But, of course, London is different. ;)

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/12/08/snow-storm-ontario.html

#220 Krystal on 12.08.10 at 2:49 pm

Greg_W from Oakville you are such a bag licking brown noser

#221 Hoof Hearted on 12.08.10 at 3:06 pm

Next year, Metro Vancouver will attempt to adopt the Metro Vancouver Regional Growth Strategy 2040

http://www.metrovancouver.org/planning/development/strategy/RGSDocs/RGSNov12_1stand2ndreading.pdf

In essence this is the dreaded “Mega City” concept.

It will require 100% consensus by all 23 member Local Gov’ts , one of which includes our regional tranist authority TRANSLINK which has acquired ” affected local gov’t” status

If this is ratified, then only a 2/3 majority is required for any/all tabled changes in the future.

I have heard that the Mega City concept is a disaster, in that it does not work on economy of scale, but actually leads to more bureaucracy aka increased cost.
In Metro Vancouver, it appears that the poli-bureau mafioso are working in behind the backrooms to plan 30 years into the future with Hi Density.
This creates a quasi- ATM machine re increased property taxes via highest and best use , and forcing out commercial and light industrial businesses and avoid NIMBY backlash.
Then the DCC’s roll in when the Hi Density is actually built , and another cash cow of future residential property taxes

One ex City Planner for Vancouver stated that Vancouver already has current zoning in place for 20,000 condo units , hence whats the rush?

IMHO, Local Gov’ts are addicted to this like crack cocaine. THEY have nothing to lose if the market crashes, as in a worst case scenario they simply force any unpaid taxes into a tax sale, and adjust the mill rates for all the survivors.

The Feds are in on this via the other crack cocaine of low interest rates.

#222 wes coast on 12.08.10 at 9:55 pm

wow, that ‘Venus Project’ smells of communism re-born with pretty buildings. Sounds like a nice concept, except that just like communism, it completely ignores human nature (greed and selfishness) and therefor is destined for complete failure.