Upsize

On Sunday a hundred people showed up at an open house in Vancouver, on an unremarkable street, overflowing an unremarkable single-storey house.

On Tuesday offers were accepted. More than 20 materialized. The majority were from Asians, but the winning bidder was not. He bought it for one of his children. No conditions.

This story also would be unremarkable, save for the fact the home went for $150,000 more than the asking price, and was listed for over a million. The owners bought it a few years ago in the four hundred range. But, as F says, there is no bubble.

About the same time as the sale was being confirmed, the Calgary Real Estate Board was chomping on a spur and releasing its latest stats. Sales of SFHs dropped 19% in November from a year ago while condos crashed by 38% (despite MissyBunny’s fluffing). Feeling the need for irony, CREB president Diane Scott said, “The second half of 2010 has proven to be weaker than expected.”

In fact, even in Vancouver – where our little house sold for vastly more than a trophy mansion in Winnipeg – sales are sliding. The local cartel reports deals off about 19% from last year, while prices are ahead 4%.

As you know, a house is also a tough sell right now in Edmonton. And (as I detailed yesterday), in swaths of the GTA. When the numbers emerge from the Toronto Real Estate Board tomorrow, they’re expected to confirm what’s been seen now in virtually every market of the country – a six-month pattern of double-digit sales declines.

Despite a drop in five-year mortgage money and rising affordability (according to the banks), buyers have decreased in the same numbers as the greater fools left have lost their minds. The market appears to be moving in two directions at one – toward lower sales and higher prices. Which begs the question: which will prevail?

Hours ago I met with a guy in his late forties with a little home and $140,000 in liquid investments, half of it the result of a recent family gift. He has both a mortgage and a fat LOC against the house (the loan was taken ‘to buy stuff’), plus two kids about four years from university. No pension, of course. But he does have a wife who watches HGTV all day. She demands an upsize.

So, he asked me, would I be okay to buy a place for $500,000? That would mean a $400,000 mortgage and just enough cash left to school his kids. By the time he’s 55, he’d have a decade left to build a half-million retirement nestegg and a mortgage he’d never pay off on a house that would probably be worth less.

‘You might as well,’ I said helpfully. ‘You’re pretty much screwed now.’

Several times I have said real estate is the most emotional of assets. Even when we know we cannot afford it, it beckons. Try as we might, we can’t resist defining ourselves through it. The allure of the asset blinds us to the debt seething behind it. A harmless desire to own it escalates to lust when others compete. Despite what we rationally know, urges overcome. And these days, conquests are an entitlement.

So, in Vancouver today there is a smart vendor wondering if he did the right thing. Twenty offers can make a man doubt his action.

There are nineteen bidders spurned. Next time they’ll claw.

And one victor, mulling how many zeros there are in a million.

181 comments ↓

#1 kitchener1 on 12.02.10 at 11:38 pm

6 months of steady sales declines is starting to be a trend. Prices will follow soon enough.

No pent up demand, no more buyers left and once the price of money moves, its all over.

It will be interesting to see what happens in Jan/Feb/March— dare i say sales volume will be off by 30-40%??

#2 Nibs on 12.02.10 at 11:38 pm

More warning signs in China. Canadian house prices at a stalemate?

http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2010/12/02/more-red-lights-in-china-house-prices-at-a-stalemate/

#3 Min in Mission on 12.02.10 at 11:39 pm

six. But, on the other hand, I wasn’t a bidder on that house. Bought a few years ago, probably 5 years left to pay. We went for the cheapest place we liked. It is only a house. I like it now, but, have no particular emotional attachment (to the house that is)

#4 Bill Grable on 12.02.10 at 11:59 pm

After reading a recent commentary on China and their asset bubble, we are really going to see some kind of show here in Vancouver, and everywhere else.

Mr. Turner has been trying MIGHTILY to remind us wee Canucks that buying a House purchase carries a MORT GAGE = DEATH CONTRACT, en francais. YET, people will still think paying a screwball money for a pressboard palace on 30 feet of frontage, is a brilliant move.

SCARY.

#5 realpaul on 12.03.10 at 12:05 am

There are few business fortunes in Vancouver. The rich(er) generally fall into a few distinct categories….drug money…grandma’s money…..loan fraudsters from ‘Asia’ and overstuffed civil servants. There are a few multi millionaire native chiefs…but thats about it.

You’re ‘local’ bid winner certainly would not have earned the money he spent outbidding 19 others…no one who has earned his money would be so frivolous. making money is hard…the process demands that you’re smart. Buy a shithole from the grasp of a few ‘Asian’ dope dealers and fraudsters and you can only be one thing….a civil servant who gets paid so much that you don’t care about money….it just rolls in…and the fat pension means it always will…you can afford to be stupid.

On the news tonight the Taxpayers Assoc were pointing out that most cities were spending 3 to 5 times more than they could afford. The result is higher fee’s and taxes…but….the civil servants have all got big raises…and will again next year.

Since the real estate bubble the civil servants income has risen from generous to where the offices are lined with flunkies making hundreds of thousands a year and even millions. No wonder some idiot outbid the pack of fools he was competing against in the auction fever franzy…he was spending our money.

#6 Tim on 12.03.10 at 12:21 am

Wow, I know what I want for Christmas! nice pic…
Like the previous post said, Vancouver is mainly drug money and wealth Asians. Comments about them not being the driving force in real estate is a load of crap. How many white folks do you see in Kerisdale or South Vancouver, or East Van? It is obvious drug money is a driving force here as well. What else is there here? No large companies, very little manufacturing, the only industry that was really big was construction

#7 Chris in Langley on 12.03.10 at 12:21 am

Great post Garth!

#8 Al on 12.03.10 at 12:25 am

100 people lining up to buy shows you that the real estate market is still strong.

#9 Timing is Everything on 12.03.10 at 12:25 am

Garth – “So, in Vancouver today there is a smart vendor…
There are nineteen bidders spurned.
And one victor…

And life moves on…on the west coast….River Green and Coho Living…
Hun, can you grab me a sno-cone?…Thanks.

http://www.bivinteractive.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3454&Itemid=32

#10 Jeff Smith on 12.03.10 at 12:33 am

>and was listed for over a million. The owners bought it a
>few years ago in the four hundred range. But, as F says,
>there is no bubble.

I heard flarehertie, harpie & carnie (FCH) just renewed the stimulus for another 7months subscription. The economic aerobic work-out is suppose to make the economy more healthy and strong just in time for election in ’12. But hey, why should i complain as long as it creates job for selfish little old me in this time. Who cares about those stupid desperate impoverished grandkiddies of future generations. None of my freakin business. Someone give me a beer, I got to start celebratin.

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/business-news/article.aspx?cp-documentid=26601494

#11 Priced Out in Toronto on 12.03.10 at 12:40 am

“Several times I have said real estate is the most emotional of assets. Even when we know we cannot afford it, it beckons. Try as we might, we can’t resist defining ourselves through it.”

This is poetry… it’s no longer just analysis.

#12 Mark on 12.03.10 at 12:41 am

Who is “F”?

#13 nonplused on 12.03.10 at 12:43 am

Mmmm… Apples. Personally I prefer cantaloupe but when you are hungry you eat what’s on the table.

As Garth has reminded us frequently (but forgot to this time), in the initial stages of a correction sellers hold inventory off the market, creating artificial scarcity. I know of at least a couple houses that did not sell (my realtor can see when they sold) and are not listed, one of which is vacant. The sellers figure if they wait until spring they can relist and get “their price”. So all that is listed right now in the dark days of December is junk, overpriced, or the odd house that absolutely cannot wait to sell. The ones that cannot wait are moving the market, people who overextended to get that beauty with the granite toilet and the marble dishwasher.

In Hongcouver, there could very well be a lot of pressure from Asians trying to flee the coming collapse of China (what else could motivate them to put money here and not there? They know it’s coming, just not when or why) but even that cannot be endless. Although it is a social phenomena that the Chinese do love to gamble, so who knows.

I think if the Vancouver market ever shows sustained declines or even flatlines, there will be a bunch of foreigners first to list. They may be gamblers, but they know they are gambling. It’s not much different than a Canadian buying in Phoenix, except the Chinese have cultural experience with things turning on a dime and ending badly.

#14 april on 12.03.10 at 12:50 am

I remember the early 90s and the same was being said re the Asians driving up home prices. Yet it didn’t last. Why would it be different this time?

#15 pablo on 12.03.10 at 12:50 am

Well Garth, I see that Gerald Celente has you advertising via google on his blog page.

http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/

#16 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.03.10 at 12:52 am

IMF TO BAIL OUT THE WORLD?

At least that’s the rumour in the financial press these days.

That report comes hot on the heels of revelations that the US Federal Reserve bailed out European financial institutions during the 2008-09 economic/market meltdown.

This is from the Washington Post:

“Fed aid in financial crisis went beyond U.S. banks to industry, foreign firms

The financial crisis stretched even farther across the economy than many had realized, as new disclosures show the Federal Reserve rushed trillions of dollars in emergency aid not just to Wall Street but also to motorcycle makers, telecom firms and foreign-owned banks in 2008 and 2009.

The Fed’s efforts to prop up the financial sector reached across a broad spectrum of the economy…The central bank’s aid programs also supported U.S. subsidiaries of banks based in East Asia, Europe and Canada…

…The Fed launched emergency programs totaling $3.3 trillion in aid..”

HIGHER IMF PROFILE IN EUROPE?

It was during this reportage that media outlets also detailed rumoured US plans to further fund money to the IMF, which would use that money to bailout more countries, and who knows what other financially-strapped entities..

THE BOTTOM LINE SHOULD THIS HAPPEN?

A money-printing ponzi scheme, of historic proportions, it would puff up American imperial projection, by a lot.

Ramifications would be near fatal for China, and other upstart emerging nations, which would be flooded with bogus Greenbacks! Trillions of ’em.

Inflation of staggering amounts would follow, thus degrading the “value” of debt owned by the US to the rest of the world.

The US would be back as the top dog of the world heap of economic power brokers, unchallenged and unchallengeable.

THIS IS NOT FOR THE WORLD, JUST FOR THE US ELITES

The only winners will be the heavily-commissioned Wall Street hucksters and their “elite” bosses sunning themselves in heavily-guarded “resorts” in warm places. The rest of us will be so screwed thanks to inflation, shortages, unemployment, societal breakdown.

BACK AT THE RANCH, MEANWHILE, THIS OUT OF MARIETTA, GEORGIA.

“Applicants Battle Cold For Govt. Help

(WSB Radio) — Despite the freezing temperatures, hundreds fought for a place in line in Marietta to apply for federal aid to help pay their heat and power bills this winter.

Only 30 people were being let in at a time at the assistance center in Marietta.

‘It was freezing,’ applicant Linda Benefield told WSB-TV. ‘I was in line for three hours and 15 minutes, but I needed the help.’

Some needed even more help just to deal with the cold. Ambulances were called in and took at least two people to the hospital because of the freezing temperatures.

‘People just couldn’t stand the cold,’ said applicant Deandre Marshall. ‘They were not letting people in fast enough.’

Marshall said people in line were crying, afraid they would not even get a chance to apply.

…’It’s almost like being in a soup line during the great depression.’

The money is offered through a network of agencies in Georgia.”

AND THEN THERE’S THIS, from US News and World Report

“Delaying Tax Vote Could Crash Stock Market

Failure by Congress to extend the Bush tax cuts, especially locking in the 15 percent capital gains tax rate, will spark a stock market sell off starting December 15 as investors move to lock in gains at a lower rate than the 20 percent it would jump to next year, warn analysts…

While it is unclear how bad the sell off could be, it could wipe out the year’s gains, they warn…”

WHAT’S GOING ON HERE, ANYWAY? AND THE IMF HAS NOT EVEN BEGUN ITS NEW ASSIGNMENT YET!

This is a full-on assault on regular folks everywhere by a US elite that has just plain lost it, financial bowels and all; a 21st Century Rome getting long in the tooth, amoral and greedy beyond all reason.

We’ll all need a strong stomach for what’s coming…

#17 april on 12.03.10 at 1:05 am

Poco #138 – Weds posting. Dangerous.
Poco I also live in the Tri-city area – that’s if New West is part of Tri-city area – and many houses and condos around here and in nearby Burnaby have been sitting since early last summer, a few have ‘price reduced’ and a few have sold lately but it looks like it has really slowed down. Vancouver may be the last area around the Lowermainland to see price reductions if it hasn’t already started. My guess is that Van is usually the first to go up and the last to go down.

#18 45north on 12.03.10 at 1:13 am

Min in Mission: I like it now, but, have no particular emotional attachment

don’t allow yourself to be attached to anything that you’re not willing to walk out on in 30 seconds flat

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLxg7WmRDFo

#19 april on 12.03.10 at 1:15 am

Poco #138. Weds posting Dangerous.

I live in the Tri-city area and I agree with you. Things look as if they’ve really slowed down around here anyway. Many listings still up from early last summer. A few have ‘priced reduced’ and a few sales lately. Vancouver may be the last area in the Lowermainland to see price reductions start if they haven’t already. Vancouver is probably the first to go up and the last to go down.

#20 canuckfilly on 12.03.10 at 1:18 am

Well I watched global last night and UBC wants to build lots of new dwellings for students etc on the endowment lands. Guess they haven’t heard of the recession. Should cost billions. Heres an idea , how about selling/giving those millenium apts that are all fit for multiple persons to UBC for whatever Vancouver can get for them and Vancouver can cut some of their losses. Put in a direct shuttle bus to UBC for all the university kids and we have it built. Charge their parents a pot full of money for them to go to UBC and they can help bail Vancouver out at the same time without the other taxpayers in BC having to completely fund the big lights. I’m still smarting about having to fund those darned Olympics.

#21 mail order bride on 12.03.10 at 1:23 am

Its funny how Canada @ 1.00 percent interest rates is afraid move move .25 % fearing it would cause a market crash.

While Crazy Critter like the one in the article dive fearlessing into huge debt.

If the gutless canadian government doesn’t correct this madness, it would only allow more “Wise Investors” whom are buying investing on Margin.

China is about to raise their rates another quarter to approxiately 5.75 %. And the world is afraid it would kill them and slow down China from buying their real estate. (which is 60% of their growth)

With a GDP of 1% yesterday, why would anyone want to place their money in this Country where you can get much better returns elsewhere.

Keep on lending canada, and build up a debt greater than Greece.

I just don’t get this, has the world gone mad

#22 Ghost of Tom Joad on 12.03.10 at 1:27 am

9/11 Family Group: Judge Napolitano and Geraldo Rivera Are Right to Question Building 7 Collapse:

http://www.infowars.com/911-family-group-judge-napolitano-and-geraldo-rivera-are-right-to-question-building-7-collapse-2/

Rockefeller Reveals 9/11 FRAUD to Aaron Russo:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nD7dbkkBIA

#23 Timing is Everything on 12.03.10 at 1:31 am

Stay just out of reach ;) …Self-sufficiency…Ha!

http://www.bivinteractive.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3458&Itemid=1

#24 Joseph [Original] on 12.03.10 at 1:31 am

This blog sometimes just kills me psychologically. When I read this blog I think of all the quick money we could have made if we had just purchased a house (or two) in Vancouver a few years ago, rented it out, then sold it off today.

I remember when I finished school I always told my dad how ignorant he must have been to miss out on all the opportunities he had in his lifetime to strike it rich – investing in Microsoft, IBM, etc – and told myself I would never repeat that mistake. Well here I am with the rest of the kindred spirits on this blog socking it away a little at a time, researching the prospect of earning an annual return of 4 percent (yuppee) through investing in preferreds, while alot of the bolder folks that invested in a property in Vancouver in the last couple of years, and flipped it, have earned more than we ever will in a series of lifetimes with our get rich slow ideas.

I am inclined to think that the number one flaw of us bloggers on this site is that we are faint-hearted, mimicking the song that says “We’re looking for love in all the wrong places”, but in our case, “We’re looking for investments in all the wrong places.”.

Here we are, the intelligent investors, day after day talking about how smart we are in not investing our money in the orange guy’s shorts for next to nothing when we can earn four percent (maybe) through a balanced portfolio, while other less complicated investors (may I say, simpletons) cash in on the real estate craze of our generation, earning 100 percent returns annually, or in the case of Vancouver, 1000 percent returns in a matter of a few years (e.g., purchasing a $500K house in Vancouver with $100K down even four years ago would pretty well made all of us folks on this blog milionaires.

No disrespect to Garth at all intended by this post, but its gotta make you wonder when you know you could have spent a fraction of your time investing in real estate and made significantly more money than you have running around the country performing a one man show promoting the merits of a balanced investment portfolio.

Also, (again, no disrespect intended, as I have enjoyed every single blog written by you in the last two years), but didn’t you say in a reply to one of the bloggers just a few short blogs ago that the idea that Asians were buying real estate in Vancouver had no factual basis?

I am not trying to discourage you, but rather am expressing myself in my own pool of discouragement. Nickel and diming our way to riches isn’t a game plan.

It seems that our kids too will ask us how we could have been so ignorant as to miss the opportunity of a lifetime to get rich quick that was staring us all in our faces, especially in the light of emergency rates of two percent. We’re nuts.

#25 poco on 12.03.10 at 1:43 am

#146 sam–from previous post
I’m not talking about a decrease in sales (that’s a given) i’m referring to a decrease in prices–if you can’t find them you’re not doing your “homework”

Oh but i do get out to many open houses, and i know exactly the areas i’m interested in and that’s what i concentrate on

I go to these open houses well prepared–i usually know the complete history of the property –what the owner paid — any price changes—the appraisal value(which doesn’t mean much anymore) I know more about some properties than the realtor trying to sell it to me.
After a while it’s pretty easy to figure out the owners that are desperate to sell and there are many! I’ve found a couple that have had a few large price drops and have been somewhat tempting but it’s still too early to jump back in.

tell me, do you do any of this, or do you just walk in blind and hope for the best ?

and no, I have never put myself forward as being smarter than everyone else but maybe a little more knowledgeable about the areas of real estate i follow

#26 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.03.10 at 1:49 am


“Upsize despite MissyfluffyBunny. She demands an upsize.” — Ummm, no thanks; I’ll pass the opportunity over to someone else!

“. . . F says, there is no bubble.” — Trying to keep a straight face when F-H-C speak, with dead-pan expressions on their faces, pretending they know it all and everything better than us is akin to being in a severe case of road rash and enjoying the outcome. Not very pleasant.
*
For DSP and Oasis — you may find this of interest. Further.

7:40 clipRothschilds involved in Korean Conflict?

Satellite Pic Britain buried in the white stuff — the whole country. Arrived earlier than expected.

Sleeping With The Enemy? Quite funny!

The Financier Conspiracy — Easier for creditors, heavier for taxpayers.

Japan / US War Games — “If North and South Korea engage militarily, China will have to engage on the side of North Korea, and the US will have to engage on the side of South Korea.” wrh.com.

CDS “Read this carefully. This is how the whole derivatives mess that the people of the US and EU are losing their homes to pay for came about!” wrh.com.

California The Four Horseoffsprings (gender neutral) of the Apocalypse.

#27 Patz on 12.03.10 at 1:50 am

Although it may take longer than any of us would have thought, the Vancouver RE market will fall that much harder when it does. Ask yourself why South Florida is one of the worst hit RE markets in the US. Did all their drug dealers move to beautiful BC to grow bud?

#28 realpaul on 12.03.10 at 2:01 am

Tim #6….its the same reason they won’t ‘profile’ at the airports. God forbid we should seem to be ‘discriminating’ against mostly foriegn citizens from a country that rhymes with ‘vagina’. Holy horror and consternation would well up from the hotly focused righteous indignation from the holy left and new immigrant lobby should the truth ever be uttered…..we are a politically correct country and you better tow the party line or the howling mob of Trudeauites will call you rascist, bigoted, not very nice…anti this and that. The design against the truth is so that they get their way and everyone else has to shut it….get it?

What is sad is that the more we give away as pandering, the less is left of what was here in the first place.

#29 mr mike on 12.03.10 at 2:06 am

My neighbor just bought a condo in vic for a flip, He is a commercial fisherman, bragg’s how he hasnt paid income tax since 94 and still gets ei for 6 months every season.
The guy just came home yesterday with a cheque for 12 grand and his ei cards for the next 6 months.

I would like to rat this guy out he pisses me off so much.

#30 $froma$ia on 12.03.10 at 2:07 am

C’mon garth,

What don’t you get, why real estate is so high?

First, it’s cheap easy money to buy homes. There’s no choice, if peoples homes drop then they will be more likely not to spend hurting the economy even more.

Theres really no choice but to fatten the people up so that they will keep spending, keeping the economy going.

I mean, would you be more likely to spend your extra income if your home is in negative equity?

This will continue until inflation becomes a problem/factor.

We will definitly see deflation if home owners fall into the negative equity.

Funny thing, Phil Soper, early this year said that Vancouverites are mearly sitting on the side lines till wages come up before buying into the market (the reason for the slow RE market).

#31 dark sad person on 12.03.10 at 2:26 am

#151 BrianT on 12.02.10 at 10:23 pm

#144DSP-your funniest line was imagining what the USA could accomplish if they “pulled back their military”-jeez nice fantasy you have going there-why not just have them take back the keys to the piggy bank from the connected banks-that might free up a few scheckels-high speed rail and world peace here we come (your fantasizing is kinda fun).

********************

I didn’t say one “fuken thing about what the “USA” could accomplish if “they” pulled back their Military-

Get this delusional asshole–

I talked “only” about the “USD”
Which is controlled by “Market Sentiment”
Or did you “not” know that–
I didn’t think so-

I talked only about what it is that the US has in Economic Capital that keeps “Market sentiment” believing that the US can back their paper market and how that Sentiment would improve the USD strength if those things happened and they just “might” happen-
Did you not know that throughout history-Deflation jerks Military’s backwards by the boot straps?
Been that way since time began-
Do some study–

I said “nothing” in relation to what you spew above-

What you’re doing is trying to portray you’re smarter then the “Market”
If the Market decides the US is what you “think” it is-then the Dollar would collapse and your Hyper-inflationary pipe dreams and US Armageddon will be in motion-

Guess what smart ass–it ain’t happening–is it?

I have “nothing” good to say about the “leaders” of the US-or what they’re doing or have done around the World-or their Banker Lords-
You’ve “never” heard me say that-
So don’t try and weasel that in-in order to try and make yourself “look” like you’re in the know–

You don’t agree with what I said–fine-
Prove it wrong-
Show “everyone” here that I’m wrong–

You’re always beaking off–but here’s the deal-
You have to twist my words in order to build a Strawman-that you can beat-

I’ve laid out tons of data and you don’t go near it-
Take your swollen head out of your ass and prove what I said to be wrong-
Then you can go ahead and make me look like the fool you try to describe above-

Got it ?

#32 Phil Indablanque on 12.03.10 at 2:34 am

“…the home went for $150,000 more than the asking price, and was listed for over a million. ”

I thought Van was all about the BC Bud but apparently this buyer is on crack.

#33 Tre on 12.03.10 at 2:35 am

I smell blood and a wipeout coming!

#34 Flip Flop Vancouver on 12.03.10 at 2:47 am

I thought this would be a good time to repost my previous comment since the influence of the asian community was categorically refuted by some posters, while others wanted quantitative evidence.

Well, if 19 out of 20 bidders were asian, then clearly they are not a driving factor right? Lol.

Spend some time out here Garth. Talk to community leaders, businesses, (realtors, for what its worth), and walk around with your eyes wide open in communities such as Vancouver West and Richmond.

Then take a look at Vancouver house prices for the past 2.5 decades, and correlate those with the influx of asian (primarily Chinese) immigrants from the mid-1980s on. You will see that Vancouverites have been paying a “premium” since that influx.

It is what it is, and sticking your head in the sand and denying its existence does a diservice to those trying to understand the factors behind the perpetual strength of Vancouver’s RE market.

@@@@@@@@@@@@

In Vancouver, aka crash ground zero, we have had over 100 percent list sell days for the past month, and its only November. We are back to multiple offers and over ask sales. Spring is going to be on fire.

The market has come back with a resurgence, and we are on track for a sales month that will be similar to the rest of the Novembers during the bull years.

Wow, Vancouver bears have been wrong for so long it must really hurt.

As for the Asian factor, yes, everyone with two eyes and half a brain can see that the offshore investment factor is real.

When 78% of the over 2 million dollar homes are being sold to asians, it is pretty clear that they are supporting the market (and yes, that is a real number, albeit from remax).

Gee, its hardly a surprise as Vancouver prices have gone pretty much up since the mid 80s, which correlates nicely with the beginning, and continuation, of the asian influx into Vancouver.

As long as offshore asian money, and asian immigrants come to Vancouver, prices are not going down.

While the rest of the bears patiently rent, and squirrel away the meagre difference between renting and buying, asians in Vancouver are easily amassing their down payments.

Keep in mind that renting is HUGELY stigmatized within the asian community. Asian children stay at home, with no costs, until they are married. Asian children DO NOT rent, preferring not to waste their money on rent, all the while amassing their down payments. It is not rocket science – even when earning average pay, the stay at home potential first time asian buyer can get a much bigger down payment much faster then those renting.

Also, extended family immigrants all pool their resources to buy real estate with the asian community. Four individuals working average jobs can pay off a home much faster than a high income couple. They are more prone to buy investment properties with little down payments as well.

Sorry bears, but the norms, values and traditions of the soon to be dominant group in Vancouver trump those of the soon to be minority group in Vancouver. This demographic does not share in the traditional idea of going out on one’s own, renting a crappy apartment, deferring gratification, and struggling to amass a down payment. Instead, it is much smarter to live at home, not have any bills, and amass a massive DP that allows you to pay off your mortgage faster, and leverage your equity quicker for another property.

But hey, its not like I am pontificating the effect of asian buyers in a local market 3000 miles away from the action. Lol.

Vancouver bears better realize that there has been, and continues to be, a demographic and cultural shift. If you don’t want to buy into this new normative order, time to leave.

#35 DavidL on 12.03.10 at 2:48 am

@realpaul

Gee… I don’t know where you are getting your information about civil servants – but as someone who’s worked for the federal government for the past nine years, I’ve been receiving between 1.5 and 2.5 percent increase per year. In other words, my income has not kept pace with inflation.

#36 Old is Gold on 12.03.10 at 3:06 am

The mansion at 7 Ruskin Rd. in Winnipeg is a very nice heritage house with a beautiful large southern exposure stained glass window. It’s part of a neighbourhood which backs on to Wellington Crescent around the corner from Neil Young’s teenage years home. Many of the homes were previously occupied by foreign embassies which left in the late sixties and were bought and enjoyed for many years without any upkeep. At #1 Ruskin it has now been converted to a four plex condo, following a trend going on in these neighbourhoods. Increasing the density will probably save them from further deterioration. As stand alones they have been priced out of their former glory because of the cost of labor required to rework such large places. It is deceiving to look at a picture where the details of the deterioration cannot be seen, even at the 876K paid for this past beauty, being full in when restored will probably take the cost above the origiinal asking of 1.5M. Peanut Park across the street is always under a foot of water in the spring, and there is a lot of excess parking and traffic from the nearby Kelvin High School and feeder streets using the area to go cross town.

#37 Popeye the sailer man on 12.03.10 at 3:10 am

#5 realpaul

WTF are you talking about, I’m a Government employee and I have honed my trade as a Marine Engineer for over 20 years to become a Chief Engineer on a ship and I only make a bit over $80,000. Years of 2% to 2.5 % increases per year sometimes with benefits reduced because of binding arbitration. Don’t forget the 4-5 years of, 0% increases for all employees back in the early 90’s. I have a 20 Million dollar plant to operate and maintain on a forty year old ship and spend 6 months a year working 12h days for 28days away from my family. Finally after years working my way up my job is fairly secure and I can count on a steady pay check. And in another 13 years I will get a pension if I can afford to leave. I have traded stability for lower pay compared to counterparts that work for tugs, ferries, and shipping companies, all who get paid more. Try rising a family of 4 on that single income in Victoria BC. (Wife has to stay home, kids with extra needs). We do it and seem to have more money than many with average to modest duel incomes.

So when you spew comments like you have you disrespect a lot of hard working people that don’t make hundreds of thousands of dollars let alone millions. Who are you talking about even upper management I know of don’t get paid much more than around 100k. During the boom times I hear people say to me why don’t you work else ware you can make more…………… then during the bust times they complain that they are out of work, now owe to much, are a financial wreck and are envious of my steady and stable employment. Slow and steady wins the race! Large austerity measures can even hurt the most established government employees so don’t think we live in bliss.

I just saw a ship tied up for good this December and with it 40+ jobs, mostly terms and casuals.

The same people that complain about there is to much government workers are the some ones that complain that they have to wait 12 hours in emergency, there is never a cop around when you need one, hate to wait 5 hours to talk to a passport or tax clerk, are happy to see a snow plough Dec 24th, want there pot holes fixed in spring, expect a real person to talk to when they phone any number on the blue pages in there phone book to ask a question that can be found on FAQ’s on the web.

So #5 realpaul look at yourself and think what you can do to improve your standing in life and stop being envious of others.

PS this is a polite as I can be talking to an _ss

#38 GBoomer on 12.03.10 at 3:24 am

My wife and I are both recently retired and living in a place where there are leaves on the trees five months a year. The other seven months the leaves are on the ground, covered by several healthy dumps of snow. It is our intention to move to the Chilliwack area for reasons of climate, proximity to family and nearness of entertainment and cultural options available in the Lower Mainland of BC.

For about year I have been tracking Chilliwack and area strata sales data. Here are some interesting numbers, based on July through November 2009 and the same five months for 2010.

July – November 2009 total strata sales = 370, with an average sale price of 220,000 and a total gross value of $81.4 million

July – November 2010 total strata sales = 210, with an average sale price of 211,000 and a total gross value of $44.31 million

Drop in sales = 160, or 43.5% fewer sales

Drop in average sale price = 9,000, or 4.5% less

Drop in total sales revenue = $37,090,000, or 45.56% less than the same five months in 2009.

In 2010 it has taken 7-10 days longer to sell. Listings, averaged over five months are: 2009 – 485, and for 2010 – 544

So, sales are wayyyy down, listings are up, average sale price is down by less than five percent, and overall sales revenue is almost half of what it was in 2009 for July through November.

To borrow and adulterate from George Harrison:

Little darlin’, it’s about to be a long, cold, lonely winter.

#39 rory on 12.03.10 at 3:34 am

Sorry all …but the Wikileaks and Assange are more newsworthy right now …what say you?

Me, I think like Bambi …”If you have nothing good to say then say nothing at all” …these shits should pay.

The truth is never wrong to expose.

#40 freedom_2008 on 12.03.10 at 3:36 am

Garth,

To your friend in Vancouver you said sell (I would agree). To people who bid/bought his house you think they are crazy (I would also agree).

So if everyone listens to you, who would buy houses that you told to sell? No one.

#41 Conspiricy Guy on 12.03.10 at 3:54 am

Don’t think Vancouver housing prices will fall until we see some real signs of inflation or rise in interest rates.

Its a circus out there, many whom think we hit a new bottom and things are going to go up from here.

#42 Aussie Roy on 12.03.10 at 4:12 am

Aussie Update…

Garth, this blog and Canada in general get a mention here.

http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2010/03/bursting-property-bubbles-sales-crash.html

Also of interest.
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2010/10/lending-for-housing-investment-at-17.html
http://blog.lvrg.org.au/2010/12/housing-bubble-exposed-by-abs-land.html

Visual presentation of houses on market in Aussie land.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5ko-n37P8OI/TPhgPrqIRVI/AAAAAAAAA4Q/XW1n1VsVG9Y/s1600/list.bmp

Um, were we told no assistance would be required by our “solid gold” banking system.
NATIONAL Australia Bank and Westpac were among global banks to borrow billions of dollars in emergency funds from the US Federal Reserve at the height of financial crisis.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/nab-westpac-tapped-fed-20101202-18i58.html
http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20101203/nab-and-westpacs-secret-bailout-revealed.html

#43 flyfisher on 12.03.10 at 4:48 am

It’s funny how the recent posters think that all Asian are drug dealers? I did not think the hells Angels of Vancouver allowed Asians into their gangs. “how many white folk do you see living in South Vancouver” WTF is that suppose to mean? Why don’t you blame yourself for your financial position and not the “Asian boogieman” idiot bigot.

#44 Brynn on 12.03.10 at 4:55 am

hey henny penny, arent you sick of saying the sky is falling when clearly it is not?

Look at the example you used for Vancouver….it is going nowhere but up, up and up. Who cares about winnipeg and edmonton? No one wants to live there, esp not Chinese flush with cash…these are regional markets, quit painting all them with the same brush…

#45 The Apocalyptic One formerly Old is Gold on 12.03.10 at 5:44 am

I am sure this same madness must have been seen in SOCAL prior to their market going belly up, and continuing to do so. The day of reckoning for Vancouver will be more like a lifetime of reckoning, and of paying the piper, and paying the piper, and paying the piper…and the piper never forgets or forgives, DEBT that is, just ask Greece and Ireland and Portugal and Spain and Italy and Hungary and many Eastern European nations and Dubai and ….

Interestingly, Poland resisted the IMF / World banksters, and “coincidentally” lost their entire leadership from the PM down in an unfortunate “plane crash” in Russia. I believe the Irish and the rest have learnt their lesson, they will not resist, at least not their leaders will not resist, the people however will do so at some point in time. But the serfs’ rebellion will not be tolerated by TPTB, think Hungary in ’56, Czechoslovakia in ’68 and worse…As I have said many time before RE prices are the least of our worries. Enjoy the engineered stock market rally while it lasts, take your profits, buy gold, silver and FOOD, it may buy you some time but in the end that too will not save you! So what will save you? In human terms – NOTHING! Think longer term than just this life…

#46 The Apocalyptic One formerly Old is Gold on 12.03.10 at 5:49 am

And one victor, mulling how many zeros there are in a million. – Garth
—————————————————————–

‘Victor’ is hardly the right word to describe this greatest of greater fools, although I believe Garth is being sarcastic. There were many such fools right up to the end in the GTA back in ’89 – O how quickly people forget!!!

#47 polecat on 12.03.10 at 5:52 am

Wow,150 000 over ask, I just bought a 1600 ft home built with real material, 40 years old and solid. on half an acre with a decent garage for 153000 in N.S. Nicer people and reasonable price and cheap taxes, don’t miss B.C. but will definitely go back to visit, it is pretty out there.

#48 The Apocalyptic One formerly Old is Gold on 12.03.10 at 6:20 am

Canadian banks tapped U.S. funds during crisis

Weren’t the Globe and BNN and the rest of the shills all screaming how great the Canadian banks were back in 2008? And how they had no need of capitalization even as our own Feds were pumping billions of our money into them? Wherefore then the need to tap into US funds?

What is the real state of our banks, are they the solid rocks that their media lapdogs claim they are? Or are they no different than their American and European counterparts?

Northern Rock = Allied Irish = Royal Bank? Maybe, only time will tell!

#49 The Apocalyptic One formerly Old is Gold on 12.03.10 at 6:37 am

While the little Chinese investors are busy outbidding each other on Vancouver RE, the big enchiladas in Beijing are buying GOLD, yes that shiny metal that has no real value! If they were really smart, they would buy Vancouver instead but what do they know, they are just “BULLION BUNNIES”!

Gold Imports by China Soar Almost Fivefold as Inflation Spurs Investment

“China’s gold imports jumped almost fivefold in the first 10 months from the entire amount shipped in last year as concern about rising inflation increased its appeal as a store of value, said the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

Imports gained to 209 metric tons compared with 45 tons for all of 2009, Shen Xiangrong, chairman of the bourse, told a conference in Shanghai today. China, the world’s largest producer and second-biggest user, doesn’t regularly publish gold-trade figures and rarely comments on its reserves.

Bullion soared 27 percent this year as the dollar dropped on concern that the trillions of dollars governments are pumping into the global economy may debase the value of currencies.”

#50 Habbit on 12.03.10 at 6:58 am

Good day eh! Three years ago I talked with my sis in Calgary as to what her house was worth. She told me in the 450K range but possibly more as there were bidding wars. Told her to sell and run like a dog and wait it out till prices come down. It was not the right time for her and she bought the hype that prices would just keep going up due to their superior economy. She sold this year (just last wek) for 330K. A nasty loss of potential tax free capitol gain. Working folk only get so many opportunities in their life to realize this amount of gain. I feel for her. In Regina the greater fools are still lining up and prices continue to increase. A neighbour sold a thousand sq/ft bungalow across the street, no basement development, no garage, needs new fence,shingles,siding. Has new doors and windows! Selling price 245K. 6 years ago may have gotten 90K! Our house is paid for bought 25 years ago for 60K. So the appreciation in value here in 19 years was 30K. We have garage and nicely finished up and down. Will sell in spring should there be greater fools around and wait it out to perhaps vulch. To those of you folks who may go to negative equity I feel for you guys. Maybe get out now while you still can. Thank you Mr. Turner and all those who write in to your blog. We hate to see the little guys take it in the ear. This will not end well

#51 Aussie Roy on 12.03.10 at 7:59 am

Oh no….

Momentum may be reaching a peak over the Australian federal government’s activist policy package on banking, with talk of an announcement by the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, this Sunday.

Speculation over the contents of the policy plan is centring on a widening of the Australian Office of Financial Management’s mandate so it becomes an investor and guarantor of pools of mortgage securities.

The AOFM seems set to become an investor, and price leader, in subordinated tranches of mortgage-backed securities rather than restricting itself to AAA-rated senior debt, as it does now.

Some version of the Canadian system of guarantees on mortgage bonds, with the AOFM once again at its centre, is also being talked about.

http://housesandholes.blogspot.com/2010/12/witching-hour.html

http://delusionaleconomics.blogspot.com/2010/12/premature-loathing.html

How can anyone be surprised by the level of delusion in the community when the government itself is leading the way. Maybe we can call it AussieMac.

In an interview published in Wednesday’s Australian Financial Review (AFR), David Murray, Chairman of the Future Fund and former CEO of the Commonwealth Bank, issued a stern warning on Australia’s high level of net foreign liabilities, which have reached nearly 60% of GDP .

http://www.unconventionaleconomist.com/2010/12/david-murray-warns-on-australias.html

#52 David B on 12.03.10 at 8:23 am

Most have it about right …. A fool and his money beit spent at a race track, fancy car store or Real Estate are soon parted. What we and other here are trying to say is: parting with 35 years of future wages for very overpriced diggs is, well, “Stupid”

#53 Aussie Roy on 12.03.10 at 8:29 am

Vancouver BC Real Estate Market Roller Coaster

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqOn5XEm86A

Real Australian house prices as RCT3 Rollercoaster

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdFPDdwys0Y

World Economy Collapse explained in 3 minutes – Funny

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyePCRkq620&feature=related

#54 Ben on 12.03.10 at 8:36 am

The TV commercial the networks never aired

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdpafsKkJPQ

#55 Darryl on 12.03.10 at 8:37 am

#27 mr.mike

“My neighbor just bought a condo in vic for a flip, He is a commercial fisherman, bragg’s how he hasnt paid income tax since 94 and still gets ei for 6 months every season.
The guy just came home yesterday with a cheque for 12 grand and his ei cards for the next 6 months.

I would like to rat this guy out he pisses me off so much.”

——————————————————-

Rat the jerk out <<<(should be caps)
No taxes ? How does he slip through. Why should we pay for pricks like that. How can he qualify for a mortgage anyways?

So the guy buys a condo on EI and 12k in cash. Obviouusly there is another source of income .

Did you say you were in BC?
I wonder what his other source is. ;)

#56 dd on 12.03.10 at 8:38 am

Funny,

People on this sight have boasted about how “ship shape” the Canadian Banks have been through the crisis. That they would never … . Sometimes the truth takes a while to come out. They are ALL interconnected. When one falls … look out.

#57 Hamilton guy on 12.03.10 at 8:40 am

People who have decided to buy are like dogs in heat – you can not stop them.If they are surrounded by more of the same you can not even reason with them. It does not matter what they are buying, nor what harm it might do to them as long as they are allowed to consummate and have the object of their desire whether it is a house, cottage or prestige car – in most case being items they can not really afford but of course do “deserve” as they are “good people” and “important” people. How best to let the world know this if not by having an expensive car and big “new” house.
So “let reason prevail” goes out the window as consummation wins and wins and the buyers consummate by buying and get consummated by the seller who knows more about pushing emotional buttons which overcome logic almost every time. The old line about an animal in heat having lost it ability act logically is proven again and again in these recent times. (its not just those two dogs in the middle of the road).

Having said all that – while countries around us have housing prices sink and people lose jobs, people are fighting to get in here by the boatload and our prices are only minimally adjusting and it has taken months longer to even see this then forecast. If the rest of the world is truly emerging (which seems to be as much fancy as fact) does Canada get off with a lighter punishment or does he/she who parties longest end up most wiped??

Credit card rates were of course 18% when we had 12% mortgage rates and are still that when we have 3.49% rates – and some people actually pull money from their credit cards to help make their big purchases

Some folks are buying new builds 2 years out with houses to sell before castle closing time. Scary if you are right but brilliant if the party continues. Keep telling them the party is over but the music is still playing.

#58 Ben on 12.03.10 at 8:51 am

#27 mr mike on 12.03.10 at 2:06 am

” He is a commercial fisherman, bragg’s how he hasnt paid income tax since 94 and still gets ei for 6 months every season. ”

How does he pull that off, don’t you have to file income tax showing that you worked for at least a year before you can claim EI for 6 months?

#59 Grrr on 12.03.10 at 9:05 am

“It seems that our kids too will ask us how we could have been so ignorant as to miss the opportunity of a lifetime to get rich quick that was staring us all in our faces…” – #22 Joseph

We should never feel bad about passing on get rich quick schemes. Every dollar acquired this way comes out of someone else’s pocket or society’s as a whole. There is no honour in it.

#60 Brian1 on 12.03.10 at 9:11 am

Could it be that Vancouver will be the only place to benefit from the coming downturn? Frightened Asians fleeing China seeking refuge? If so Vancouver cannot be the only place experiencing this phenomena. All over the Pacific triangle this should occur. Is it?

#61 dd on 12.03.10 at 9:52 am

Funny,

Even Rogoff, a professor of economics and public policy at Harvard University knows the Fed is debasing its currency.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/china-is-scared-u-s-policy-is-debasing-currency-rogoff-rickards-say.html

#62 Got A Watch on 12.03.10 at 10:07 am

Important things like real estate long term price trends, inf/de flation, personal financial management….these things don’t fit in a 120 word Twitter comment, which pretty rules out at least half our populace from grasping them, ever, right there. Not to mention they aren’t really listening anyway, as they are busy sending a text. I have had conversations with people recently, at claimed to be important ‘business meetings’, and I swear most there had no idea what was said, 2 seconds after someone said it. I look around the room, and half the people at least are bent over their phones all meeting. I predict failure of our society on just this issue, no one is paying attention, even when important decisions are about to be made. If cel phone networks stopped working, everyone would grind to an instant halt, game over, man, game over.

We wonder why people spend seconds on a major financial decision like buying a house etc. That’s all the attention span most have, I think, and that is a prime reason why our economy is in trouble.

dark sad person – all good arguments, and I pretty much agree. However, you can yourself see the difficulty there is in explaining all this monetary mess to ordinary citizens, who have no understanding of who or what the FED does, or what M2 or M3 or the shadow banking system are – they don’t understand how this can be deflationary, when all they see is rising prices now for food, gas, insurance, taxes etc. I have met maybe 1 in 100, maybe, who have an understanding of how the level of overall credit in the economy, and whether it is contracting or growing, will affect the economy and thus them. Never mind the goldbugs, who are so stuck in an inflationary mindset they see no other possible outcomes ever.

So, how do you explain this to J6P, who has about 1-2 minutes max to think about it, if that, before they just don’t want to discuss it anymore? I tell people we are in a deflationary contraction that will run for years yet, and they look at me like I must be crazy. Maybe I am, but that’s besides the point.

I’m just wondering if it is possible to make it clear at all, to those who really need to, but can’t, that in order to fully understand all the concepts, they would have to spend more time on it than they ever will, in our attention span challenged society. It’s not like they will actually go to the St Louis FED website and read it all themselves, and even less likely they will comprehend it. If it could fit into 1 comment of 120 characters or less, there might be a chance.

#63 MrSuzi on 12.03.10 at 10:19 am

I gotta know Garth, did you ‘friend’ MissBunny?

Too dangerous. Cardiac arrest. — Garth

#64 allister on 12.03.10 at 10:19 am

Safe Canadian Banks?

A coworker told me yesterday that he was preapproved for 5X his gross.

Hes got a single income and 4 kids under 6 at home with the wife.

Good news – he’s smart enough to realize that the bank is nuts and he can’t borrow that much.

#65 Lonely Limey on 12.03.10 at 10:33 am

@ Joseph [Original] #22

I like the cut of your jib.

#66 C on 12.03.10 at 10:48 am

Nice US jobs number this morning (please feel the sarcasm). What…..you mean this recovery isn’t real???? Come on now, for those of you who though so, you can’t be serious.

This stock market rebound has been simply an expected bounce from the depths of ’08-09, and a Weimar infused money bonanza, nothing concrete. The chickens are coming home baby. The average Canadian hasn’t got a clue what’s coming. Especially those of us in the GTA. We are a Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania hybrid here in southern Ontario. Truly baffling and mind boggling how much the average Canadian in southern Ontario resembles an ostrich, head in the sand. God help those fools who bought in recent years if rates are really priced for current global economic risks. Actually god help those who really need the help and didn’t put themselves in such financial predicaments voluntarily.

#67 doctore on 12.03.10 at 11:02 am

Well looks like things are not very rosy in USA with their meek jobs report, real unemployment is 17% taking away all the smoke and mirrors they use to hide figures not the 9.8% reported. And Canada only added 15000, mostly partime and the rest gave up looking. On the real estate front, with dismal reports like this how are people going to afford mortgages when either they are under employed or have no job period? From the drival on this board you think the savior is a boat load of asians that will all show up enmass in Vancouver, Toronto and major US cities to save the day, because as said “they don’t rent, period”.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101203-705932.html

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE6B22KI20101203

#68 Live within your means on 12.03.10 at 11:04 am

#33 DavidL on 12.03.10 at 2:48 am
@realpaul

Gee… I don’t know where you are getting your information about civil servants – but as someone who’s worked for the federal government for the past nine years, I’ve been receiving between 1.5 and 2.5 percent increase per year. In other words, my income has not kept pace with inflation.
……………

My husband is a silly servant, but with a Mun Govt. (non unionized). His increase – 1%.

Tired of all the libertarian types bashing govt. employees and taxes yet would be the first to scream if roads weren’t paved, etc. etc. Harper said ‘no taxes are good taxes’ until he got into power and then started spending like a drunken sailor, but his base are quite willing to support this big spending so called ‘fiscal responsible’ – ha, ha govt.. I’m curious as to the $ figure for this govt’s advertising campaign that I see nightly on TV re all their Govt. of Canada websites re victims of crime, child health, Economic Action Plan, etc., etc. It’s in your face con propaganda at taxpayers’ expense. What a waste.

#69 William on 12.03.10 at 11:13 am

Toronto numbers in. Sales down only 13%, new listings down 13%. Prices up 5%. Looks like healthy numbers. Could those RE people actually be right about a “soft landing”?

#70 Consider This on 12.03.10 at 11:15 am

At #15: Victoria Tea Party, you stated “Inflation of staggering amounts would follow, thus degrading the “value” of debt owned by the US to the rest of the world.

The US would be back as the top dog of the world heap of economic power brokers, unchallenged and unchallengeable.”

The US never left the position as top dog of the world heap of economic power brokers – it still has higher GDP and better efficiency ratios than all other countries, including China. Despite all the problems the US is encountering right now, its position is relative to all other countries. Most other countries are experiencing or will be experiencing worse conditions than the US.

#71 TheBestPlaceOnEarth on 12.03.10 at 11:15 am

Even with the relentless media attention to potential housing bubbles buyer still line up and pay 150k over ask. Beautiful just beautiful. A lot of Asians are scrambling to pick up these cheap homes for their kids.
Here’s another example
{}{}
Ratana and Arran Stephens — proprietors of North America’s largest organic cereal company — own the Point Grey property. The Stephens purchased the 104-by-404-foot site, near Drummond Drive, Oct. 28 for $5.1 million.
The couple bought the property for their children and grandchildren, not to flip it,
{}{}{}{}{
So now we have a hug influx of sophisticated professional people not only buying for themselves but their children and grandchildren as well. The lazy “Canadian” anxiously eats potatoe chips and drinks beer wasting their life watching Hockey Night in Canada wondering where their kids are going to live. It’s ok though the Canadian can just keep drinking in their rental home and apartment waiting for the eviction notice. As Vancouver moves forward more and more owners will not require renters. Nobody wants bed bugs when your spending 7 figures and due to the extreme wealth of Vancovuer renters are an unnecessary inconvenience. Buy Hold and get stinking rich folks. The lineups continue and I LOVE IT

#72 Burnt Norton on 12.03.10 at 11:20 am

#22 Joseph [Original] on 12.03.10 at 1:31 am

Come on man. Hindsight is 20-20. There could have been a huge earthquake in Vancouver in the spring of 2010 in which case you would not now be lamenting about missed flipping opportunities.

I think you’re missing the point of the blog. It’s not a get rich quick scheme. It’s a program to optimize the potential for financial freedom while mitigating risk. Whining about the big one that got away is not part of the program.

#73 Herb on 12.03.10 at 11:22 am

realpaul –

you must have overheard someone saying that civil servants are pricks, and have suffered from penis envy ever since.

#74 bullion.bunny on 12.03.10 at 11:23 am

Too dangerous. Cardiac arrest. — Garth

Might be good for you to get the pipes cleaned.

#75 EDMONTON EXPAT on 12.03.10 at 11:24 am

lONG TIME READER, FIRST TIME POSTER.

cONCLUSION: THIS SITE IS FOR DOOMSTERS.
ECONOMIC NEWS CAN BE AS SHINY AS POSSIBLE, THE’LL ALL SEE THE BAD.

Care for a kitten? — Garth

#76 Soylent Green is People on 12.03.10 at 11:26 am

Oh nice photoshopped to death picture. I used to watch DH every SUnday until that gay producer axed nicollette sheridan then I just couldn’t watch any more after that.

Finished Sheeple last night, very good read about the disaster that is our evangelical Prime Spender, born again Christian Stephen HarperCon. If I could get half Canadians to read this book, Canada might get saved in time before HarperCon burns it to the ground.

Harper is nuts everybody. Just read Garth’s book and you will see for yourself.

p.s. Since I’m new to the Federal scene, it was FANTASTIC back story for me, helping me get caught up on all the Harper crimes I missed before the first proroguing. I did have a lot of trouble with the time shifting back and forth but that’s because this is all news to me. I knew you were in Ottawa, but honestly I was just not paying attention back then.

I have new respect for Garth and what he was trying to do in government re making it more open and accessible. No wonder HarperCon freaked out ha ah hah ah ahaha. Seriously, you were 5/10 years too early. I love that idea of the MPTV and am now checking out your political site for the 20 million blogs I have missed.

‘SHEEPLE’ – Caucus Confidential in Stephen Harper’s Ottawa

http://shop.xurbia.ca/products/sheeple

Garth Turner was a freshly-elected Member of Parliament when he was dooced… the first politician in Canada – possibly the world – to be fired for his web site. For the unacceptably honest and blunt opinions that appeared on his site – especially those critical of colleague Stephen Harper – Turner was threatened by party operatives, stripped of his caucus and party affiliation, reviled, shunned and left for dead. Was his blogging a betrayal? Or the future of a more democratic politics?
.
.
.
.
.

#77 pablo on 12.03.10 at 11:30 am

http://www.infowars.com/its-the-bankers-or-us/

I believe that all countries should default on IMF debt, arrest all federal reserve bank executives, seize all their personal assets and nationalize all banks Arrest all the complicit politicians, media moguls and investment banksters. Return printing of currency to the people and return to a gold backed currency system worldwide. It is the shylocks and money lenders that have created the crisis not the people.

#78 Junius on 12.03.10 at 11:33 am

#32 Flip Flop,

If only it were true. If only we were able to redress our horrid trade imbalance with China by having them funnel money into our economy propping it up to save our market and buttress our economy. Alas, it is not so. At least not on a grand enough scale to matter.

Number in Vancouver City continue to be flat from the April highs. Remarkable that they have not come off more. Sales are still pretty low and listings are flat. Stagnation.

If the pool of Asian buyers and greaterfools has kept the market flat then so be it. That can’t last. It is all a matter of time.

#79 Live within your means on 12.03.10 at 11:37 am

.#35 Popeye the sailer man on 12.03.10 at 3:10 am

Hear, hear. Agree. I know my husband could go elsewhere and earn more but he likes his job. And he doesn’t have an indexed pension.

I worked for the feds in Ottawa for 3+ yrs, worked in the private sector for many years before moving here and working for our prov. govt. for 26. Contract settlements were usually late by 2+ yrs for the plebs, yet Mgrs & the upper echelon rec’d the anticipated settlement from the date our contract was due. So, with inflation, by the time our contract was negotiated we were already behind the 8 ball due to inflation. We couldn’t strike. And, just because one is a silly servant doesn’t mean one’s job is secure.

#80 X on 12.03.10 at 11:38 am

So you really think F will say that there is a bubble. You might as well give him a pin to pop the bubble if he publicly said that.

I mean, a politician could lose his job if he were to start telling the truth to the public or speaking his mind.

#81 Junius on 12.03.10 at 11:40 am

#39 Conspiracy Guy,

You said, “Don’t think Vancouver housing prices will fall until we see some real signs of inflation or rise in interest rates.”

It is melting on the edges. Prices are down 10% in Coquitlam and more in the Valley. West Van is down. The highs in the market continue to be April, 2010. Nothing is getting this market back there.

However I agree with you. Until we see interest rate rises or a combination of inflation or affordability erosion it will melt slowly in the 10-15% off the highs range.

#82 Taxpayer like everyone else on 12.03.10 at 11:41 am

29 Dark Sad – steady there blog brother. Deep breaths.

I believe Brian Ts comment came from this text in your
post (cut and pasted)

“What would the USD do if they pulled back their Military”

His response appers to assume that you think the US will
pull back their military. Hence his reference to “fantasy”.

It looks to be an innocent mis-interpretation to me.

I just don’t want to see it escalate.

#83 GregW, Oakville on 12.03.10 at 11:44 am

Hi #11 Mark, fyi re: Who is “F”?
(Canada’s Minister of Finance in the PM’s…)

FLAHERTY, The Hon. James Michael (Jim), P.C., B.A., LL.B.
http://www2.parl.gc.ca/Parlinfo/Files/Parliamentarian.aspx?Item=95e9d5a2-e9a6-4037-b6a7-218bfdc01a33&Language=E&Section=FederalExperience
“James M. Flaherty is a second-term Member of Parliament for Whitby–Oshawa (Ontario). He serves as Canada’s Minister of Finance and Minister Responsible for the Greater Toronto Area. He is a Governor of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. As Minister of Finance he is an ex-officio member of all Cabinet Committees.”

#84 Junius on 12.03.10 at 11:47 am

#69 Personmostlikelyoncrack,

Your example of hot Asian money is a purchase of a home by the current owners of Nature’s Path cereal.

Mr. Stephens is British and has lived here for decades. His wife is East Indian. I have met them both. Nice people.

Their company started in B.C. and has become very successful. Great. Now they are rich enough to buy a nice home on the West side because money is not an object.

This example has nothing to do with anything you are trying to prove.

#85 Live within your means on 12.03.10 at 12:01 pm

#45 polecat on 12.03.10 at 5:52 am
Wow,150 000 over ask, I just bought a 1600 ft home built with real material, 40 years old and solid. on half an acre with a decent garage for 153000 in N.S. Nicer people and reasonable price and cheap taxes, don’t miss B.C. but will definitely go back to visit, it is pretty out there.
……………..

Yes, its pretty in BC, but so too is NS. Almost moved there in 76 when I visited a few friends, originally from Mtl & Ottawa. But, felt cut off by the mountains and was told about the endless rain. Instead moved to NS (yes, rain too) but had relatives here. One of those friends in BC moved to Charlottetown 2+ yrs ago when she retired. She never owned in VA but her rent is now so much cheaper and she’s thoroughly enjoying her life.

#86 Mr. Plow on 12.03.10 at 12:12 pm

#62 allister

What was the purchase price and the amount down?

#87 Junius on 12.03.10 at 12:32 pm

#22 Joseph [the original],

You said, “This blog sometimes just kills me psychologically. When I read this blog I think of all the quick money we could have made if we had just purchased a house (or two) in Vancouver a few years ago, rented it out, then sold it off today.”

Yes, but isn’t the operative phrase “could have”. Many on this blog did and have made loads of money in Real Estate. Garth appears to have done well by Real Estate.

The point is that those days are over. If you bought a home in Vancouver in 2009 or 2010 then it is worth roughly the same as you bought it for – a little more or a little less based on current market valuations. However over the coming years it will depreciate in value.

So, you missed the run up. Too late. Suck it up. However at least you aren’t stupid enough to buy in now at the top.

#88 Marcus Aurelius on 12.03.10 at 12:36 pm

Marcus here,

Thought I’d add a bit more Down Under content for the folks back home.

Hey all you people in the Great White North, we’ve got someone here in Australia, a smart bloke, who has done a lot of analysis on the real estate market here. He’s a bit famous for losing a bet (timing is everything, eh?) about when the property market here would drop 40%. As a result, he did a walk up a ‘mountain’ here in Australia. Good sense of humour, that guy. And integrity, which you don’t find much of these days.

Here’s his site:

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

Seeing as Canada and Australia are very similar in so many political and economic ways, it would be informative to see what is happening here.

The takeaway: the underlying force holding up the RE market is an unsupportable level of debt. As we are seeing unfold around the world, when that limit is reached, things come apart faster than a cheap suit. So be aware that what seems solid one day can change, and when it changes, it can come quickly.

Not anecdotes or hyperbole, just a lot of boring graphs and historical perspective. If you are wondering what shape we’re all in and how precarious it is, have a look. Then decide for yourself if spending 80% of your net income on a roof is good economic sense. Or that there will be a greater fool to take your place.

#89 Junius on 12.03.10 at 12:36 pm

Garth,

The Confidence Bored of Canada has not made a press release in the past month or more. What is the hold up? Or is it just that they are still sifting through the numbers trying to find some good news to spin about the economy and the housing market.

Time to set my egg timer. Headline, “Canada to lead G7 in Growth in 2011” probably ready to go just before the holidays.

#90 Joe Q. on 12.03.10 at 12:46 pm

In addition to the GTA numbers posted by #67 William, important to note that active listings were up 14% vs last November and DOM up 27%. Though I do also find it interesting that November was the first time in many months that GTA sales have been above 2006 levels.

#91 GregW, Oakville on 12.03.10 at 12:49 pm

Hi Garth, Thanks for your blog and posting peoples comments. Many today have already touched on topic to consider.

I thought the Canadian Charter is/was to protect everyone basic rights and freedoms from being trampled on by anyone or even an institution?

I find this a bit concerning for many reasons,
New Tory MP Fantino under fire for charter remarks
http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20101203/fantino-under-fire-for-charter-remarks-101203/20101203/?hub=TorontoNewHome

Garth, Did you receive the e-mail I sent you yesterday?

#92 Dan in Victoria on 12.03.10 at 12:56 pm

Camden NJ.
Camden to lay off 400 Police and Fire dept. employees.
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2010/12/02/camden-city-council-approves-massive-police-and-fire-layoffs/

#93 Live within your means on 12.03.10 at 12:59 pm

.#52 Ben on 12.03.10 at 8:36 am

Of course there is huge govt waste. Most, IMHO, is caused by those who create policies and the top & middle level bureacrats. The reg. joe silly servant has to implement and follow some of these stupid policies/regs. It gets depressing at times, but, they dare not say anything because their job would be on the line. Regardless of what legislation has been introduced by the Harper govt., civil servants will not be protected if they come forth. The legislation is a charade. There’s no transparency or accountability.

#94 Dan in Victoria on 12.03.10 at 1:05 pm

Or how about this.
Scotland and Wales reveal unprecedented budget cuts.
“It is estimated that 30,000 or around 9% of public sector jobs could be cut in the next four years.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/dec2010/scot-d03.shtml

#95 CTO on 12.03.10 at 1:08 pm

U.S job number deteriorates, Canadian jobs number improves…these are strange days indeed.
I sure can’t see the Canadian number improving any better if our largest trading partner by far continues to receed or even stay were it is.
Simple question for all the bulls out there,…Who are we selling our products and services to??? Our selfs?

#96 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.03.10 at 1:11 pm

#68 Consider This.

Your points are correct, which means that I should have been a bit more clear in my missive.

So, here goes.

The US has been over-extending its grasp financially and militarily for years, now. It shows up in a variety of areas, that include: the debts of the Homeland; the military commitments abroad in more than one hundred countries; the two wars. We’re all familiar with these issues by now.

Now, there’s the real possibility of a third blow-’em-up, this time on the Korean peninsula. There, and today, the new Korean defense minister promised a retaliatory bombing attack on North Korea should the south be attacked again. Fair enough. But should such an event begat a hot, long, regional conflict there, the US will be further stretched depending, of course, on which weapons systems it would retaliate with! Yikes!

US might is awesome and I’m glad to be on their side of that equation. But dangers lurk for all of us simply because of the trendline that has been established for quite some time by the US. That trend is dominated by uncontrolled spending. The only relief, other than severe and painful austerity, a long-shot right now, is to simply take it out on everyone else, which is what is happening, through purposeful degradation of the US Greenback.

The problem for Americans, at home, is that this monetary/fiscal program also hurts them in their wallets through higher taxation, fewer public services, a real estate collapse, double digit unemployment. We’ve been seeing this for years, the gutting of American infrastructure.

Regardless of its efficiency and proactive attitudes, the US “system” is in trouble and we all know it.

#97 AG Sage on 12.03.10 at 1:11 pm

#1 Kitchner,

>No pent up demand, no more buyers left and once the price of money moves, its all over.

I’ve been pondering whether Canada or Australia will try for a save and drop rates. It would be stunningly unwise . . . but not impossible. And it would be more of a short term political move. Any elections coming up?

#98 Dan in Victoria on 12.03.10 at 1:11 pm

Gee, what could be next?
Fed wants to strip key protection for home owners.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/12/01/104568/fed-wants-to-strip-a-key-protection.html

#99 Live within your means on 12.03.10 at 1:14 pm

.#56 Ben on 12.03.10 at 8:51 am
#27 mr mike on 12.03.10 at 2:06 am

” He is a commercial fisherman, bragg’s how he hasnt paid income tax since 94 and still gets ei for 6 months every season. ”

How does he pull that off, don’t you have to file income tax showing that you worked for at least a year before you can claim EI for 6 months?
………………..

Here’s a link – haven’t read though it so can’t comment.

http://www.servicecanada.gc.ca/eng/ei/types/fishing.shtml

#100 Dan in Victoria on 12.03.10 at 1:15 pm

“What is coming is a windfall for the wealthy.”
Really? Imagine that.
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/dec2010/cuts-d03.shtml

#101 Devore on 12.03.10 at 1:17 pm

#22 Joseph [Original]

It seems that our kids too will ask us how we could have been so ignorant as to miss the opportunity of a lifetime to get rich quick that was staring us all in our faces, especially in the light of emergency rates of two percent. We’re nuts.

That’s far too simplistic.

When the time was right to buy real estate, 10 years ago, rates weren’t 2%. And many of us, like myself, were in no position to be buying anything at that time, and of course no one could have possibly foreseen the explosion in credit.

Technology always marches on. It’s wise to keep an eye on all emerging technology trends, and maybe keep some speculative money in the ones that have sound science behind them.

#102 Live within your means on 12.03.10 at 1:18 pm

.#89 GregW, Oakville on 12.03.10 at 12:49 pm
…………..
Sounds a bit like the Police Chief in Oddawa.

#103 Devore on 12.03.10 at 1:26 pm

#38 freedom_2008

So if everyone listens to you, who would buy houses that you told to sell? No one.

Chances of everyone listening to Garth? Uhm, what’s less than zero?

If everyone was sensible to begin with, we’d never be talking about this problem. That’s why every successful investment strategy is contrarian. You move against the stupidity and momentum of the herd.

#104 Dan in Victoria on 12.03.10 at 1:28 pm

Got a Watch @ 60
“No one is paying attention”

And you guys on here are arguing about who you work for, and who gets what. Read the above links I posted.

And P.S. about the inflation, deflation debate.
I’m not interested in debating it, it’s above my pay scale.
I read a wonderful argument over the last couple of days on a closed discussion forum.
They boiled it down to this, follow the money.
Who will benifit from deflation?
Who will get screwed by it?
Hint cash, debt.
I’m sure there is more to it than that for sure but kinda makes you pay attention.

#105 High Park Renter on 12.03.10 at 1:31 pm

Response to #60 Got a Watch

You’ve issued a great challenge: to explain the significance of a multi-year deflationary contraction to the financially illiterate, in a Twitter-sized phrase.

The closest I’ve seen so far is from Nicole Foss (Stoneleigh):

“we are all playing a giant game of musical chairs, only there is perhaps one chair for every hundred people playing the game. You can imagine what will happen when the music stops. The free-for-all grab for an available chair represents the extinguishing of excess claims to underlying real wealth, and is deflation by definition.”

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/11/november-20-2010-jeff-rubin-another.html

#106 Devore on 12.03.10 at 1:34 pm

#56 Ben

How does he pull that off, don’t you have to file income tax showing that you worked for at least a year before you can claim EI for 6 months?

There are different rules for seasonal workers. Some quick reading http://www.mapleleafweb.com/features/employment-insurance-canada-history-structure-and-issues

#107 Industrial Guy on 12.03.10 at 1:35 pm

This is the ultimate in blowing sunshine up your ….. “Family debt rising, but financial health improving”
The article was published in the Moneyville section of Canada’s largest daily newspaper. It’s truly shocking. Readers expect this section of the paper to provide reasoned and objective financial information. It’s nothing more than an advertisement for the debt merchants

The article basically says stock markets are up and our buddies the banks say its a good time to borrow more. Didn’t this reliance on “household net worth” feed the debt crisis we’re now dealing with? The US housing market is a sobering lesson in how quickly Net Worth can change. Equity vapourized in a heartbeat. That kind of free fall drop is unlikely to happen in Canada. Our mortgage rules will simply transform this decline into the death of a billion (trillion) cuts.

http://www.moneyville.ca/article/899729–family-debt-rising-but-financial-health-improving#comments

#108 C on 12.03.10 at 1:35 pm

#22 Joseph

You can also get a 100% rate of return in an instant on the roulette wheel. People in the US would have been saying the same thing in ’05-’06, but the ones who got in in ’07 onward would beg to differ. Bubbles last longer than everyone thinks but eventually they end, and end nasty.

#109 Herb on 12.03.10 at 1:41 pm

Timing is everything. Hence, a fearless prediction:

This recession started the day after the last election. It will end the day before Harper drops the writ for the next one.

#110 RJ on 12.03.10 at 1:56 pm

G’night Uncle Buck.

#111 kitchener1 on 12.03.10 at 2:01 pm

#27 regarding the guy not paying taxes.

If he is a sole owner of his fishing charter, then his operating costs are probely pretty high. Probely only makes the min amount — say 30K and invests the rest into his business, and collects EI. Nothing illegal about it. A lot of self employed do this, put the money into th business, thats why so many of the are driving around in 50-60K brand new trucks but are still broke.

#112 Foggy on 12.03.10 at 2:09 pm

The more stories I see like this the more I believe Chinese money is stupid money. We beat ourselves up here for lack of grounding in fundamental economic knowledge and due diligence. But the Chinese are the ultimate in relying on folk wisdom to invest their money. They are oblivious to anything approaching rational, informed investing. They learn what they believe, around the family dinner table. And they operate as one gigantic, powerful, homogenous mass. That’s probably the main reason Vancouver real estate is like it is.

#113 dark sad person on 12.03.10 at 2:21 pm

#60 Got A Watch on 12.03.10 at 10:07 am

********************

You’re right Got a Watch-why bother with it-

It’s impossible for people here to stay on subject and when they have nothing to add or take away-they resort to twisting it all around in order to try belittle and turn what should be educational into cluster fk-
If people don’t want to learn and ignore facts and continue to let their egos get in the way of simply admitting they’re wrong and progressing from there-like all successful traders have to do-then to hell with them-

You’re one of the best posters here and i wish i had your tolerance-when dealing with anal fk-wits-

#114 TS on 12.03.10 at 2:24 pm

The link takes you to a piece on baby boomers struggling to save for retirement….and an interesting observation that the boomers will need to sell their “McManions” to try and take the equity to finance their retirement and thereby put more downward pressure on home prices…. a point that Garth has been making on his blog for quite some time.

http://yourmoney.ca/news/baby_boomers_struggling_to_prepare_for_retirement_in_low-interest_environment/4f0a948c

#115 45north on 12.03.10 at 2:37 pm

William: Toronto numbers in. Sales down only 13%, new listings down 13%. Prices up 5%. Looks like healthy numbers. Could those RE people actually be right about a “soft landing”?

sales down 13% for one month is not a big deal but sales down six months in a row is. ( I assume the 13% decline is year-over-year? – I would feel rather mislead if the 13% was month-over-month!) Prices follow sales. I remember in the US in 2006, posters were saying that the spring of 2007 would bring increased sales and higher prices. It didn’t.

#116 Timing is Everything on 12.03.10 at 2:59 pm

#80 Taxpayer like everyone else
re: #29 DSP

Agreed…DSP, Let’s keep it civil. Square breathing.

#117 vomitingdog on 12.03.10 at 3:08 pm

What you describe in Vancouver is not a declining market.

Nor healthy. — Garth

#118 Flip Flop Vancouver on 12.03.10 at 3:10 pm

Based on how quiet this blog is on the asian factor in Vancouver, I guess everyone has just finally accepted it. Posters went from dismissing it outright to begrudgingly accepting it, but noting that it cannot last.

Lol – people are finally scratching their heads, saying maybe this rich asian ” myth” is true.

It was only a few months back that posters criticized those that noted that inventory would be absorbed by the 250,000 immigrants coming into Canada. Now, it seems that maybe those posters were right, at least in specific locales like Vancouver.

Bears, unless you realize the true factors behind the strength of Vancouver’s real estate, you will never be able to position yourselves to capitalize on the continuation of the 10 year bull run.

#119 jess on 12.03.10 at 3:27 pm

Image problems

============
Vietnam Arrests Company Chairman in First Securities-Fraud Case
November 29, 2010, 7:51 AM EST

China Researcher Says Vietnam Investments Face Risks, CBN Says
Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) — Vietnam arrested a pharmaceutical company executive in connection with securities fraud, the first such case since the country’s stock exchange opened a decade ago.

MUMBAI | Mon Nov 29, 2010 10:41am EST

MUMBAI Nov 29
India’s federal investigative agency investigation into the bribes-for-loans scanda
arrested eight top officials at banks and financial firms who allegedly took bribes in exchange for granting large corporate loans and other facilities to companies. senior officials at state-run Central Bank of India (CBI.BO), Punjab National Bank (PNBK.BO) and Bank of India (BOI.BO). The former CEO of India’s LIC Housing Finance (LICH.BO) took bribes to clear loans worth 4.70 billion rupees ($102 million) for three realtors, a lawyer for India’s federal investigation agency said on Monday.
===========
fee factoring factories
Sort Order Optimization –

… $10 million to settle allegations that it rigged the way it posted transactions to people’s checking accounts over a six-year period. By posting the items according to the dollar amount, not when they actually occurred during the day, that prompted unfair overdraft fees, according to a suit in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois.

“The practice of recording transactions to maximize revenue is a widespread practice,” said Ed Mierzwinski, consumer director at the U.S. Public Interest Research Group in Washington D.C. Fifth Third agreed to settle “because they think they got caught,” he said.
=====================
” Wells did is by now well known: It engineered its processing of transactions to mix together different types of transactions—debit-card purchases, checks, and automated clearing house transactions—and reordered each transaction to be processed from the largest to the smallest at the close of every business day.”

http://www.propublica.org/blog/item/read-documents-reveal-one-banks-plan-to-squeeze-customers-for-more-overdraf
===================
…” investigation revealed that State Street was indeed overcharging the two funds. Despite being contractually obligated to charge the interbank rate at the precise time of the trade, State Street consistently charged at or near the highest rate of the day, even if the interbank rate was lower at the time of trade.

Additionally, State Street concealed the fraud by deliberately failing to include time stamp data in its reports, so that the pension funds could not determine the true execution costs by verifying when State Street actually executed the trades. Commenting on this deception, one State Street senior vice president said to another executive that “…if providing execution costs will give [CalPERS] any insight into how much we make off of FX transactions, I will be shocked if [State Street] or anyone would agree to reveal the information.”
=====================

….”Matthews reveals that at least two prominent British practices have been hit by a wave of identity theft at the hands of Chinese impostors, which have cloned their websites and submitted bids for building projects under their names.”…Given the international nature of the most prestigious and lucrative construction projects, and the success British practices enjoy globally, such scams may well be the tip of a digital iceberg. To date, the thieves appear to have targeted large, global practices working on a wide range of commercial and infrastructure projects from hotels and office blocks to sports arenas and entire districts of new Chinese cities.”

#120 PTDBD on 12.03.10 at 3:37 pm

Don’t miss Bernanke’s 60 Minutes appearance on Sunday. He will explain his Quantitative Easing strategy of perpetual prosperity for a limited few as he unveils gigantic Paperprestidigitizers droids that will stride the world spewing out tons of paper money of all currencies.

The Paperprestidigitizers have strong attractive force fields attuned only to a select few, bottomless pockets thus directing the stream of bills to keep filling these pockets.

Beware…. they also act as giant vacuum cleaners that will suck the value out of the savings of the old, retired, savers, middle and lower class consumers and taxpayers.

Bernanke will explain how higher prices for food, houses and energy is good and how savings are destructive.

#121 Chris in Langley on 12.03.10 at 3:38 pm

Dan in Victoria,

Regarding your post about layoffs for police and fire fighters…this is pretty consistent throughout the states and really makes me wonder how to prepare for this sort of thing here.

In 08 when there were a number of gang related killings, my neighbor pointed out that it was because the market was getting smaller. The drug pushers were losing customers due to lack of money so they were taking each other out in an attempt to keep their piece of the pie as big as possible.

If the economics continue downward as I expect they will, I think it would be prudent for people to consider how they present themselves if we don’t have the kind of policing we are accustomed to.

Driving flashy cars could be bad for a person’s health because they present a nicer target for criminals.
If crime goes up due to difficult finanical times and less policing, then flaunting wealth could be a real problem for some.

#122 fancy_pants on 12.03.10 at 3:47 pm

rather off topic but seasonal none-the-less, must be close to the holidays…gas prices are on the rise. Like clockwork.

Move over Santa. Let the sheeple bend over while the corporate giants steal a little more love.

From your wallet to our$, Happy Holiday$.

#123 allister on 12.03.10 at 4:01 pm

#84 Mr Plow

According to him, he asked how much of a mortgage would they loan him. I guess because he’s a young engineer the bank figures his income will rise.

He’s bought a house at about 3x his pay, I don’t know hid down payment but he’s out of school 4 years. I guess his math studies paid off.

#124 jess on 12.03.10 at 4:27 pm

the” fat rent party”
..image being a real estate agent in Germany …booking a rental appointment, only to discover that your appointment is an apartment full of protestors claiming your rental price is too high!

http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-59086.html

Activists in Hamburg have created what could well be Germany’s largest Advent calendar. They have decorated the doors of 24 vacant properties across the city with Christmas baubles…
They came to the doors, complete with beards, dressed in red and white outfits and bearing Christmas decorations. But these were not Santa’s little helpers. Along with tinsel, the anonymous Christmas decorators posted large red dots, each emblazoned with a number from 1 to 24, on the front doors of unused and derelict buildings around Hamburg.
Sadly these doors won’t open to reveal gigantic chocolate Santa Clauses. Instead, the action is a protest against gentrification in Hamburg. Every day, one of the buildings will be presented on the website of the Hamburg-based activist group Komm in die Gänge. The numbered doors “make a symbolic demand to finally be opened up again,” according to a press release from the group.

The newly launched website allows users to register vacant and unused buildings in the city and surroundings. The activists argue that, while affordable apartments and workspaces are hard to find in Hamburg, around 1.2 million square meters (12.9 million square feet) of office and industrial space stands empty. The latter includes dozens of publicly owned buildings, some of which are under monument protection and are being allowed to fall into disrepair, the group says.

#125 BrianT on 12.03.10 at 4:28 pm

#111DSP-What are you rambling on about now? What exactly do you want people to admit they are wrong about? Your awesome intellect is only surpassed by your humility.

#126 CTO on 12.03.10 at 4:35 pm

#116 Flip Flop Vancouver

No…Flip Flop…nobodies wasting there time on your silly (i want to believe asians will make me rich theory)

I’m sorry to say that we have real fundementals to discuss instead of wasting our time on you.

Good luck in your risky endevers…

#127 Larry on 12.03.10 at 4:58 pm

I’m confused… Garth, you say you’re all about cash and avoid taking on debt for a home… and yet, right there at the top right of your site sits an ad for mortgages by Ratesupermarket.ca. It even sits above your own “Buy my book!” ad.

So which is it Garth? Are you altruistically educating us poor souls, saving us from our debt misery or are you just trying to grab whatever cash you can?

I’m financing a blog you read for free. — Garth

#128 Drake on 12.03.10 at 5:04 pm

So what happens here if there’s a repeat of 2008 with the US banks needing yet more bailouts? Are Canadian banks at risk? Our dollar if theirs tanks?

I’m pretty concerned about the direction of the world economy, and whether or not those of us who put our money away in the bank or on the markets after selling our houses will still have it when we need it?

#129 Timing is Everything on 12.03.10 at 5:13 pm

Nor healthy. — Garth

That which does not kills us makes us stronger. ;)

#130 Leanne on 12.03.10 at 5:29 pm

Too dangerous. Cardiac arrest. — Garth

He is a wise man who considers his wife’s reaction ahead of time.

#131 BrianT on 12.03.10 at 5:29 pm

Remember when we could afford state of the art tech?-makes our TO to Montreal rocket seem rather slow http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/901183–china-passenger-train-hits-record-speed-during-test-run

#132 BAD on 12.03.10 at 5:36 pm


Ah, the upsize troubles. Should one upsize to this Staten Island house with some interesting history or this Vancouver beauty?

Choices, choices…

#133 GregW, Oakville on 12.03.10 at 5:43 pm

Hi #102 Live within your means,

Have you read the book 1984?
If so you might have some thoughts regarding this article.
Is Your Videogame Machine Watching You?
http://www.infowars.com/is-your-videogame-machine-watching-you/

#134 realpaul on 12.03.10 at 5:44 pm

The fat cat civil servants obviously hate being ‘outed’. We hear every day from business orgs and citizen advocates ( like the taxpayers assoc) of how the civil servants are making egeregious salaries topped with outrageous pension perks…..but according to the secret service…the taxpayer advocates are all liars? Here in BC we have hundreds of thousands of these pigs slurping out of the public trough……they had TV coverage of the latest convention yesterday….Of course we have to deny the obvious in favor of more stories of poverty and woe from the unions….to be defferential to the unions.

We have crown corps where administration offices lined with thousands of tax sucking wastrels are being paid hundreds od thousands and even millions ( car insurance and ferries just a couple of recently outed examples of enormous waste.) Never mind that firefighters..police….city workers etc etc are all earning more than $100 p/a plus pensions. Whats to deny? This is all public information.

Yesterday the taxpayers federation released the data on how cities are spending 2 to 5 times what they are taking in….and they also point out that the majority of all tax revenue is paid out in wages and pensions with little going towards ‘paving’ and ‘infrastructure’.

Our education system is a prime example with over 90% of the budget ( billions) being paid out to unions before a single new text book is purchased for the students. Whats to deny? This is a public fact. Of course the civil servants will always say theu want more, need more, can’t keep up with inflation?

As a taxpayer, no one can deny that the expense of the civil service is killing the opportunities that should be enjoyed by all citizens…not just the few greedy minions of a directionless government.

Of course I’m going to be called names ‘libertarian’ for saying anything other than the well greased diatribe of the unions. Name calling is part of the strategy of civic service to keep the outrageous reality a secret. I’m surprised I’m not being called a ‘rascist’ or ‘bigot’ or any of the other umbrella terms the knee jerks are want to use when anything isn’t going their way. And when that doesn’t work they’ll call us all ( outspoken truth-tellers) ‘Harperists’ or something equally as insipid. The fact is that we have too much over head…it has to be cut……like whats happening every where else in the world.

#135 dark sad person on 12.03.10 at 5:50 pm

#123 BrianT on 12.03.10 at 4:28 pm

#111DSP-What are you rambling on about now? What exactly do you want people to admit they are wrong about? Your awesome intellect is only surpassed by your humility.

************************

For you-
I’ll reword it because once again you show you have reading and comprehending problems-
*********

Simply address the “written words” and add or take away from that subject-instead of spinning something ridiculous out of what was actually said and trying to cram “your words” into other peoples mouths in order to try and make yourself look like you’re a notch above–
It wont work with me-
Spin is cheap and easy and you’re proof of it-

I know you’ve said you don’t like it when people link music here–so here’s a tune for ya-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GT9XY1Xk7Q&feature=related

#136 AG Sage on 12.03.10 at 6:02 pm

#24 Joseph [Original]

I spent the morning reading prospectuses (prospectii?) to put some more money on a bet that China’s economy will collapse. It’s not that hard. Read a bit on what they are buying obscene amounts of as a result of the bubble and which U.S. and Canadian stocks are benefiting.

Shorting is not for the uninformed and not to be done with money you may ever need. Ever. Here be Dragons.

#51 Aussie Roy on 12.03.10 at 7:59 am

>Speculation over the contents of the policy plan is centring on a widening of the Australian Office of Financial Management’s mandate so it becomes an investor and guarantor of pools of mortgage securities.

How can they look at the mess in the U.S. and even contemplate this? Corruption is about the only explanation a reasonable person can come up with–making sure their banking buddies never take the first haircut, or any haircut at all.

#137 Confused in Victoria on 12.03.10 at 6:19 pm

Anyone in Victoria?????

I drove around today and I see condos still going up. Apparently the trades are super busy with building. I am anyone have any insight or am I wrong and there really isn’t that much going on.

#138 jimsum on 12.03.10 at 6:23 pm

#116 Flip Flop Vancouver

I don’t buy the rich Asian or rich drug dealer theory of why Vancouver property is affordable. By measured income, Vancouver is completely unaffordable and ready to crash. If Vancouver’s economy is really so dominated by undeclared income, why does the money only get spent on housing? Shouldn’t this Asian/drug money be showering down on everyone in Vancouver? Where does someone in Vancouver spend the money they earn from selling their house, if only Asians and drug dealers can afford houses?

At any rate, if you are right and Vancouver prices are affordable and won’t go down, then I don’t care about the Vancouver market. I can’t afford current prices, so I’ll have to accept that Vancouver will always be the exclusive playground of the foreigners and drug dealers who can afford to live there.

#139 Painted Toenails on 12.03.10 at 6:26 pm

Garth is on point. Van may still have the odd jerk and quiver as it settles into the price straightjacket but ….patience. On the other hand, across the beautiful blue water, Victoria is sliding. Down -5% YOY but more importantly – because my own experience and eyes are the only true value to me – friends and colleagues have given up and taken their homes off the market. Every. Single. One.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen this before.

My old neighbour called me yesterday. She crowed ‘you couldn’t walk through your old front door anymore for less than 125 more than you got for it 11 months ago”.

We had some terse words. Not so much about the difference in opinion (she’s dead wrong). More about the mean-girling behind the phone call.

I sold my house last Dec. I encouraged her to put hers up but nooooo, she wanted to wait until Spring, ‘better time to sell’. We all know what happened, listings exploded, sales imploded and a once in a lifetime opportunity to make some serious, serious money began to evaporate.

Sad when a friend acts that way. I was genuinely hurt for a few minutes. We debated using various stats and anecdotals. She is a bright women with far more experience in real estate than me. But I’ve got common sense and something most people will never have. Experience. My parents lost their house in the early eighties. We were out on the street. All of us. So when I see the signs now I pay attention.

When I got off the phone and simmered down a bit I realized what it was all about. She knows now. She knows they missed it. The biggest and best chance to realize that kind of capital gain. And she’s pissed off.

#140 Coho on 12.03.10 at 6:35 pm

Victoria Tea Party, #16, catchy title.

IMF TO BAIL OUT THE WORLD?

Where is it getting the money? It must be borrowing from Mars…

Then again, the interest on our debt paid to central banks has been going to private bankers, who in turn dance to their masters’ tune. If a country can print its own money there is no good reason why it cannot pay itself the interest instead of to these bloodsuckers. The Federal Reserve created the illusion that it had a role to play in “stabilizing markets” etc, but all it has been, along with other central banks similar to it, is a parasite that convinced its host that it needs it.

Now here we are with the gazillions of interest dollars paid into these private coffers over the decades being used to imprison the common people. We have freely given them the money to bail us out! Who could make this stuff up! We have paid for the building of a global prison for indentured slavery to ourselves, our children and grandchildren and so forth. Well done, people, it is quite the legacy we’ll leave behind. Future generations will wonder why we slept as we were separated from our freedom and finances. And we bicker day in and day out about the price of houses while the prison walls are being erected around us.

#141 Bill Grable on 12.03.10 at 6:41 pm

“Real estate is like a sport here,” says Tracie McTavish, president of Vancouver’s Rennie Marketing Systems.

If so: The “Milly Waters” (*also known as Athletes Village by the Swamp) should provide a great Arena.

#142 Bill Grable on 12.03.10 at 6:45 pm

Addenda, Mr. Turner:

This is interesting. In the US, the luxury rental market is seeing a bit of a boom as the wealthy move from owning to renting:

So in March he sold the Manhattan apartment he bought in 2008 for about the same price he paid and moved — along with his wife and child — a few steps away into a luxury, two-bedroom rental unit in a brand new building.

Lee wouldn’t disclose what he’s paying, but similar two-bedroom apartments in the building usually rent for $11,000 a month.

“I wanted to protect ourselves from prices going down,” says Lee, who is a managing director at a major bank. “I didn’t want to be an owner anymore.”

Lee has company. Demand for luxury rental units has increased as wealthier individuals who can afford to buy are deciding not to, according to brokers and real estate analysts in affluent areas of the country such as New York City, Chicago and San Francisco.

“More affluent Americans are opting to rent as oppose to buy,” says Jack McCabe, an independent real estate analyst and CEO of McCabe Research and Consulting in Deerfield Beach, Fla. “Within the last year, so many people have seen their family and friends get burned in real estate. They don’t see it as being a risk free investment as they used to.”

Uh… better late than never, eh guys?

http://vancouvercondo.info/

#143 Junius on 12.03.10 at 6:50 pm

#118 Flip Flop,

You said, “Based on how quiet this blog is on the asian factor in Vancouver, I guess everyone has just finally accepted it.”

Not for one second. We just stopped taking you seriously.

#144 Junius on 12.03.10 at 6:53 pm

#112 Foggy,

One of the dumbests posts I have read on this blog. And there have been a lot of dumb ones.

Foggy is the right name for you. Head in the clouds is another.

#145 HouseBuster on 12.03.10 at 6:59 pm

#61 dd
——-

Bernanke admitted it publicly. He is trying to weaken the dollar to get exports going.

#146 Onthesidelines on 12.03.10 at 7:14 pm

Inflation is already here.

Coffee up 60%
Corn up 39%
Soybeans up 26%
Wheat up 33%
Sugar up 23%

Your paycheque is getting smaller as we speak…that is if you’re lucky enough to be earning one. Meanwhile the geniuses at the Fed are printing money.

#147 Mikey the Realtor on 12.03.10 at 7:37 pm

I know the property Garth is talking about, the winner was Italian; the Asian community is quite upset that they were beaten by a European.

I had a busy week this week, I apologize for my absence. DA and I will be setting up the ‘dream team’ and will be catering to selected clientele. More info will be supplied shortly. Thanks for your patience folks!

You are posting under six names. Pick one or I’ll do it for you. — Garth

#148 CTO on 12.03.10 at 7:48 pm

137 Confused in Victoria

Lots of tower cranes in T.O as well.
Let me tell you a very short story…
My wife and I were in Fort Lauderdale Florida in Jan 2007.
We were having lunch at a restauraunt in Riverwalk downtown and while eating got talking to a local about the real estate market.
She said look! there’s tower cranes everywhere but no sales to be seen! We looked up at the gleaming 30 story condo towers and she said to us, those units up there go for $400,000.00!
We looked and thought, what’s wronge with her, that seems about right in a beautiful city like this.
Of course, very soon after it became very clear what she was talking about.
True story, i’ll never forget…

#149 McLovin on 12.03.10 at 7:58 pm

Oh no! I see you guys inherited RealPaul.

Just ignore his rants and raves. He is a bitter very old man who hates just about everyone. He was banned and blocked from the other blog that I follow. Just ignore him until Garth does the same.

#150 jess on 12.03.10 at 7:59 pm

…natural outcome of market processes huh?

…in the UK, for example, the Royal Bank of Scotland had a balance approaching 1.5 times the size of the British economy. And then it failed.

http://baselinescenario.com/2010/12/03/jamie-dimon-becoming-too-big-to-save/#more-8333

#151 AG Sage on 12.03.10 at 8:12 pm

#138 jimsum on 12.03.10 at 6:23 pm

>If Vancouver’s economy is really so dominated by undeclared income, why does the money only get spent on housing?

I’m making no statement about Vancouver, btw, just so that’s clear. I don’t know anything about drug money there.

That said, trading houses in a rising market is a very easy way to launder money. You have a house worth X and you sell it at an inflated price to a buddy, or a straw buyer if you prefer, the straw buyer gets a mortgage for the absurd price because banks also have bought into the rising market mentality for their own reasons. The bank cuts you a check for X+Y. You now have Y legitimate income to help umbrella your illegitimate income when you want to spend some of it. Repeat this with a set of houses, every few months among a few associates and it adds up to a livable “salary” that someone with an unreportable income can appear to be living on. The real neat part of the trick is this entire “salary” is funded by the banks. That’s why you do it with housing (to finally get back to your question), because the banks are willingly complicit in forking over large amounts of $.

(We had real estate agents in California doing this among their brokers and peons as straw buyers. Cost the banks millions after the foreclosures, and most of them are still in business as real estate agents, to this day.)

#152 Joseph [Original] on 12.03.10 at 8:14 pm

Thanks for all the comments. Blogger C said, “You can also get a 100% rate of return in an instant on the roulette wheel.”

But it isn’t really the same. Garth has said repeatedly that real estate is the most emotional of all assets. That is a fact that we could have used to our advantage as easily as knowing two plus two equals four. When the emotions were running high early in the craze, based on that fact alone, it would have been a good time to buy. I don’t think it was rocket science, and I don’t think it was the equivalent of playing roulette. It was really just good astute business sense to see the direction this market was heading. Replying to another blogger’s comment, I would say that there is no dishonor in that.

#153 eddy on 12.03.10 at 8:14 pm

Elderly Man Evicted from His Land for Living off the Grid

http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php

#154 dark sad person on 12.03.10 at 8:18 pm

#146 Onthesidelines on 12.03.10 at 7:14 pm

Inflation is already here.

Coffee up 60%
Corn up 39%
Soybeans up 26%
Wheat up 33%
Sugar up 23%

Your paycheque is getting smaller as we speak…that is if you’re lucky enough to be earning one. Meanwhile the geniuses at the Fed are printing money.

****************
And the price of an $800,000 house is down 30%

You can buy a lot of coffee and sugar for $240,000

#155 Canned Goods and Buckshot on 12.03.10 at 8:36 pm

Drake #128

That is an excellent question. I guess no one has a crystal ball, but this fear is really what causes many savers to shy away from the banksters and the rest of the financial community in favour of ING and the rest of them. Mazak in New Zealand is a company offering about 7% on deposits. It is worth a look.

#156 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 12.03.10 at 8:38 pm


Queer, strange white flakes of something falling from the clouds today. I surmised it was sifted flour, but the taste was wrong. Then flakes of dandruff meandered over my CPU (Central Processing Unit).

Again, they weren’t too dirty. Finally, the J.J. Cale number Cocaine hallucinated before me, as Bwitish Kalifornia is a complete meathead and deluded province / state.

We’re all high, happy fruitcakes! You aren’t, so I see the frustration of living on the wrong side of the Rockies.

To all this money nonsense happening, it may be time to re-evaluate where we are now (The Abyss), and where we are going (deeper into The Abyss just in time for Christmas and New Year’s).

Consequently The Money Song can give one an idea of where we’ve been, and with Germany looking at backing out of the Euro and putting the Deutschmark back into circulation again (the link was recently posted), we can look at the good old days again.
*
0:43 clip One idea — buy silver, and lots of it! Update to the previous. “The financial movement termed CRASH JPMORGAN BUY SILVER is well underway and represents a GLOBAL REVOLUTION to take back the True Financial Wealth that millions have worked for and are now seeing destroyed right before their eyes.”

JPM “If true,this will deliver the knockout punch to any hope of true economic recovery here in the US.” wrh.com.

GC, not GW.

US Spying “These are the actions of a government which is absolutely terrified of their citizens to the point of paranoia.” wrh.com.

Brazil “President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Friday (3) the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, that Brazil recognizes the existence of a Palestinian state, with the borders of June 4, 1967, before the War of Six Days between Arab and Israel.” This will mess things up.

Ron Paul For good or bad, he sure wears his heart on his sleeve. Further.

US – Japan Where has North Korea gone? When the Japanese elected a new, left-wing party a couple of years ago, one of the first things they did was to change alliances and cuddle up to China. Not any more (for the present time). Interesting that the US and South Korea just finished their war games, now Japan and the US start.

Foot in mouth politicians “This deal is a very clear signal that the US and NATO are planning for indefinite war in Af’stan.” wrh.com.

Computers AVG screwed up Windows (unintentionally).

November Jobs “Non-government experts are estimating unemployment at 23%. A family friend in California says their local unemployment has hit 30%. That exceeds the unemployment levels of the Great Depression.” wrh.com.

China scared “Who in their right mind in China wouldn’t be worried about the debasement of the value of that $883.5 billion dollars in US Treasuries, coupled with the fact that the US government has absolutely no way to pay China back?” wrh/com.

8:05 clip “*Banking system is broken; *Social unrest will continue; *Wealth goes to the top 1%, they’re not creating jobs; *FED balance sheet is “Destabilising”. How bad can it get? Next 6-9 months the backlash will start.”

#157 AxeHead on 12.03.10 at 8:40 pm

I don’t care if the guy is an Italian Stallion or an Asian Kung Fu expert…whoever bought that POS (Piece Of S**t) is simply an IDIOT. DA and Mikey – you guys hang out with like company I suspect…idiot.

#158 Oasis on 12.03.10 at 8:46 pm

#146 Onthesidelines on 12.03.10 at 7:14 pm
Inflation is already here.
___________________________________________

tell that to the clowns who think we’re getting deflation. lol

#159 Dan in Victoria on 12.03.10 at 8:52 pm

Confused in Victoria @137
You’ll always see something going on, even at the worst of the early eighties there was something happening. Some where.
Had lunch today with a major supplier here in Victoria.
Says thing are busy sort of, but not where it was before, talking about low single figure profit margins and even breaking even is okay.
Lots of accounts going 90 days.
I also ran into a few trades guys this week they are working but barely.
Lots of the dead wood types long gone.
Looks like most guys are going to be doing buisness as a hobby for awhile.

#160 Canned Goods and Buckshot on 12.03.10 at 9:03 pm

correction: Marac, not Mazak

http://www.marac.co.nz

#161 Timing is Everything on 12.03.10 at 9:08 pm

VREB numbers for November…

http://www.vreb.org/mls_statistics/current_statistics.html

#162 realpaul on 12.03.10 at 9:11 pm

RCMP busting hundreds of million dollar grow ops……’explosive growth ‘ thay say in BC’s 6 billion dollar drug trade. And some still say its not influencing real estate prices….with grows earning up to a million dollars a year. Can anyone be that stupid…that naive.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2010/12/03/bc-rcmp-grow-op-crackdown.html

The violence can only escalate as it has in Mexico. I think that the politicians are talking it down to keep this from becoming fodder for election talk…..and to keep this booming industry from going away. We have become dependant on the drug money to fund large segments of our society…….drug gangs and new immigrant groups….both powerful political lobbies….both very entrenched in the drug scene.

We have had evidence of influence peddling already…in can only grow ( pun intended). The locals still see this as a ‘marijuana issue’…its not…..it wasn’t in Mexico either until reality blew away the facade that drug money is nasty…..and bigger than police forces and governments once entrenched.

Crime is not being dealt with evenly…..its not politically correct to deal with ceratin elements publicly. We will allregret the decisions of the government to let this cancer matasticize through the Canadian economy.

Grass is not far out man…….this will get worse.

#163 Onemorething on 12.03.10 at 9:37 pm

#8 Al on 12.03.10 at 12:25 am

“100 people lining up to buy shows you that the real estate market is still strong.”

Sorry Pal, had to comment as you must have been standing in that line OR purchased the property yourself!

What I would like to see is the demographic of the limited sellers. You would be likely seeing leading boomers stepping off after doing the “I’m going to outlive my liquidity” calculation.

It’s going to be a boomer pandemic soon enough and when rental properties dry up, they just simply will move in with the kids who are struggling to keep those 0/5/10 % downs affoat!

Nice try though fella, your as dillusional as the other RE bulls on this blog to name a dozen.

#164 Spiltbongwater on 12.03.10 at 9:45 pm

At least post the address of the place where the bidding war was. Chinese will pay higher prices if the unit has a lucky address containing 888.
http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20101126/bc_lucky_houses_101126/20101126?hub=BritishColumbiaHome

#165 Aaron - Melbourne on 12.03.10 at 9:53 pm

#46 The Apocalyptic One formerly Old is Gold on 12.03.10 at 5:49 am
And one victor, mulling how many zeros there are in a million. – Garth
—————————————————————–

‘Victor’ is hardly the right word to describe this greatest of greater fools, although I believe Garth is being sarcastic. There were many such fools right up to the end in the GTA back in ’89 – O how quickly people forget!!!

****************************
Maybe George Costanza’s line “King of the idiots” is more apt.

#166 Devore on 12.03.10 at 9:57 pm

#154 dark sad person

And the price of an $800,000 house is down 30%

You can buy a lot of coffee and sugar for $240,000

And I am not in the market for an $800,000 house. Or a car. Or a computer. Or a flatscreen TV. Or an iPad.

I do, however, eat food every day, pay taxes, insurance, and cable, put gas in my car, and pay for transit. All up and rising.

People aren’t buying houses when then can barely put food on the table. There was a recent article about Kroger’s general meeting, in which they detailed how consumers (in the US) are now tightening their food budgets, and how they are able (or not in some cases) to pass on the increased commodity prices and input costs to consumers. How much did house prices fall in the US again? How’s that deflation working out for their prices?

Judging from the dismal sales numbers this last half year, I am guessing not too many people are worried about how many cans of coffee they can buy for $240,000, because they’re not buying an $800,000 house; the one they have now will do just fine, and their mortgage payments will not go down when their house loses $240,00 of its market value. Remember that 71% of Canadians already have a house. A drop of 30% in its value will mean they will be buying LESS coffee, not more.

#167 AG Sage on 12.03.10 at 10:06 pm

#154 dark sad person on 12.03.10 at 8:18 pm
#146 Onthesidelines on 12.03.10 at 7:14 pm

This is such a perennial problem with this topic. You are partly arguing semantics. There is inflation as a monetary phenomenon (too much currency) and there is inflation as a price phenomenon (i.e., an input into everything else, like oil, rises and pushes prices up with it, but the money supply has not changed).

Maybe label which you are discussing?

#168 S.B. on 12.03.10 at 10:13 pm

http://www.lfpress.com/comment/columnists/2010/12/01/16385441.html

Survey finds Canadians are content
By Brian MacLeod, QMI Agency

Last Updated: December 1, 2010 9:35am

So, Vancouver’s beautiful mountains, Toronto’s lake, and Windsor’s view of Detroit aren’t making people happy. (Technically, Windsor would qualify as “south Detroit,” which makes residents there the streetlight people in the song by Journey).

The study finds “a sense of belonging” to be a major factor in happiness, which is more common in neighbourhoods (probably with longer-term residents), not in mountains or cement jungles.

#169 Onemorething on 12.03.10 at 10:19 pm

#162 Real Paul,

Governments are despirate and will legalize anything that has high tax implications like weed and selling your dining room table for food!

#170 BrianT on 12.03.10 at 10:27 pm

#154DSP-Congrats Champ-that is probably the stupidest thing you have posted so far (which is quite the accomplishment).

#171 Aaron - Melbourne on 12.03.10 at 10:44 pm

IS IT POSSIBLE THAT WE CAN “OUT” ALL THE SOCK-PUPPETS POSTING ON THIS SITE UNDER DIFFERENT NAMES?

Anonymity by all means, but that doesn’t extend to those displaying multiple-personalities and trolling on that basis.

#172 mr mike on 12.03.10 at 10:53 pm

@ #55 and # 58

No, this guy owes atleast a buck and a half to CRA, yet still gets EI every season…he hasnt filed since 94.
They get paid by the packers via cheque that he cashes via money mart…then receives EI $700 bi-weekly for 6 months.

It’s a joke, and laughs at me all the time about it.
It’s wrong and I would rat him out if CRA made it a bit easier.

This guy is looting the tax payer.

#173 mr mike on 12.03.10 at 11:07 pm

To add, just goes to show how depressed areas operate.
He will spend that 12k back into the local economy.
His mother has an entire shoe box from CRA…it’s been return to sender for the last 5 yrs.

BUT HE STILL GETS EI EVERY YEAR…WTF!

#174 dark sad person on 12.03.10 at 11:23 pm

#170 BrianT on 12.03.10 at 10:27 pm

#154DSP-Congrats Champ-that is probably the stupidest thing you have posted so far (which is quite the accomplishment).

***************
Perhaps-but not one of you idiot Inflationist’s grasped the meaning of it all–lol

************

“Your paycheque is getting smaller as we speak…that is if you’re lucky enough to be earning one. Meanwhile the geniuses at the Fed are printing money.

*****************
Extremely Inflationary huh BrianT?

Still babbling about that which you cannot grasp-

*****************
Devore–get with the Picture–

House prices are what the whole paper game is leveraged to–
Learn about leverage when the gearing-winds backwards-
The US could have bailed out every underwater Mortgage in the US with the amount of Money they’ve thrown at this–
Do you suppose–there might be “something else” involved?

Weigh your Grocery receipts against falling house (asset) prices-paid for or not and still come up with Inflation–
No wonder you guys can’t get it

btw–why don’t you clever boys take a run at G?
He’s calling Deflation too–

#175 mr mike on 12.03.10 at 11:23 pm

And yes Money Mart will cash a 12k cheque if given notice and char

#176 mr mike on 12.03.10 at 11:31 pm

And yes, Money Mart will cash a 12k cheque if given notice and will release 6k chunks per day.
It’s only 3 bux on the hun for the service, but they will do it.

It just makes me sick these guys get away with this shit.
Commerical fishermen are ripping people off, BIG TIME.

They pay NO TAX and get EI….It’s a joke people.

#177 Herb on 12.03.10 at 11:37 pm

#134 (Un)realpaul,

you considering yourself to be one of the “outspoken truth-tellers”? It would be funny if it were not so sad.

#178 Shiny Yellow Metalhead on 12.04.10 at 4:33 am

I’d have no problem ratting that guy out to CRA.
Go to their website. They have a rat-line.
Nobody’s obligated to work so that guy can steal from productive people.

#179 Taxpayer like everyone else on 12.04.10 at 12:58 pm

178 – agreed , he should be a “Taxpayer like everyone
else”

#180 mr mike on 12.04.10 at 5:30 pm

You know, I wouldnt really care if this guy didnt rub it in so much.
When I say he owes a buck and a half = 150k.
What really pisses me off is that he gets EI even though he owes this kind of dough to CRA.
Thats The BC government for you.

#181 mr mike on 12.04.10 at 11:23 pm

Also…I’d do both those brunets in Garth’s intro pic!

Sorry. They’re only cranked by guys who can spell. — Garth