No rescue

“Then you’d better take the Sport Trac,” she said. Minutes later I was climbing into a big black pickup truck with four doors, a box on the back and a decal in the rear window that said ‘Back off!’

Hours later I was relieved the rental car lady in the Regina airport had shoved me into a bruising Ford instead of some metrosexual urban candyass eco-box like a Prius. Because here I was last night, hurtling through the prairie blackness, as the wind and snow gathered force against the hulking grille, trying to find Weyburn.

I discovered a town of just 12,000 people, where grain is king, the downtown strip is dark and locked at 6 pm and some recent oil money’s pushed the price of new houses into the $400,000 range. There were a hundred people in the church hall. They listened to me incredulously, asked no questions, and tucked into a social meal as my taillights vanished into the swirling show and flat, menacing, frozen Saskatchewan emptiness. Some nights are better than others.

I thought about that as my return flight circled over the vastness of the GTA, as I heard an American forecaster had just predicted a 25% decline for Canadian housing values, and as word trickled in that Vancouver’s premier condo development is now bankrupt. It all confirms my growing conviction there is no rescue possible. If most people cannot see what’s coming yet, well, they’ll be forced to live it.

Take the failure of the Millennium Water project, for example. There was absolutely no doubt that delusional entrepreneurs selling condos for $800 a square foot (and up) in a regional Canadian city would go belly up. It’s just a shame that Vancouver taxpayers end up with a non-performing $1 billion loan. The demise of the former Olympic Village site, which has been a sales disaster and a ghost town since the sweaty young people went home, is more emblematic of BC’s coming real estate adjustment than anyone with a microphone will admit.

Like many Canadian markets, it is one where fools sell each other property for successively higher prices, financed with increasing piles of debt. This is unsustainable unless accompanied by robust economic growth, lots of new jobs, and rising household incomes. None of which is happening in the Lower Mainland, Calgary, Winnipeg or Toronto.

Crawling back from the airport, in bumper-to-bumper 401 traffic, I took a call from a financial planner in BC who wanted to reprint some juicy sections of my latest book. “I read your blog every day,” he said. “And I love your stuff. We’re on the same page. But the message is falling on deaf ears, pal.”

Of course it is. Sure, it’s mildly amusing to the media when an American comes, gives a speech, and asks in bewilderment why Canadians pay 50% more for housing than his neighbours do. But most people here believe it’s the premium for living in a superior country, where we’ve figured out how to make real estate go up forever. And as evidence that my beliefs are mildly rational but irrelevant, they point to the simple fact house prices here have not dropped. (Except in Calgary. And southwestern Ontario. And Edmonton. But you know…)

So, I will say it once more. In crayon.

Sales fall first. Prices later. Usually a lot later. For example the US housing market peaked in the autumn of 2005 in terms of sales, but prices did not crest until two years later. The reason is simple. There are always people ready to buy a house who don’t follow the capital markets, monetary policy or leading indicators. Instead they have hormones, emotions and parents screaming at them to grow a set and get a mortgage.

So sales may decline, but prices stick. And as fewer foolish buyers show up with offers, more homeowners take their properties off the market. So listings fall (they are down 14% across the country from last year) while prices don’t (they’re within 1% of 2009 levels). This stage can last for some time – maybe a year, even – until economic conditions change, forcing people to sell their homes.

Those could include a moribund economy in which families have too much debt, rising interest rates or taxes, another financial crisis, or it could be house-rich retiring boomers realizing all of the above. Whatever. Once real estate has achieved unaffordable levels, and people realize it is both overpriced and vulnerable, then falling sales become falling prices.

Perhaps the collapse of Vancouver’s shining condo village by the water will turn out to be one of those factors. Or Toronto’s election of a Tea Party-wannabe mayor who vows to slash spending. Or a spike in bond yields as Europe fritters and mortgages here erupt.

It’s hard to say. But I do know this. Most Canadians are not part of this conversation. Along with a good piece of Weyburn.

As my Ford steed snarled and fought the attacking snow squall in the inky, endless void outside town, I could only think of how one woman had defended the value of her home.

“But,” she said, “people want to move here.”

Not this one. Rescued.

212 comments ↓

#1 Contrarian Canuk on 11.17.10 at 11:00 pm

Good stuff Garth

Here’s a list of prominent US economists who called the US housing bubble AND also see our market set for a correction. Their ranks are swelling…

http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2010/11/17/canadian-home-prices-should-be-ringing-alarms/

#2 Sasquatch on 11.17.10 at 11:00 pm

Same thing is starting to happen to other small communities in Sask. As one former resident told me “Know what to call a $400 K property in Kipling? Yours for life.”

#3 Mean Gene on 11.17.10 at 11:07 pm

People want to move to “What a burn Weyburn” Now that is comical, as well as this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zse4LJK8OZ0

#4 cheri on 11.17.10 at 11:10 pm

I live in Nelson,BC and people really DO want to live here and our prices are not that of Weyburn- get off the drugs lady,, or no don’t as we want our own micro economy to to carry on.

#5 Bobby on 11.17.10 at 11:10 pm

I once dated a young lady from Weyburn. No, homes there are not worth $400k.

Here in Victoria where I live, there are about 4 homes within a 3 wood shot of each other. Been for sale for a long time.

Nothing is moving.

Here’s one for you. — Garth

#6 Patz on 11.17.10 at 11:10 pm

We didn’t need Stephan Hawking to discover this black hole, the sucking sound you can hear all over Vancouver is Milly Waters vacuuming up taxpayers hard earned. It took Montreal exactly 30 years to pay off the Big Owe—will we get so lucky?

Meanwhile anyone who didn’t know we were governed by gangsters found out today in spades, er… was that clubs? The provincial (Liberal) government in Victoria is a biker club who just kneecapped one of their full patch members for shooting off his mouth. Gordo’s giving up as club president but he’ll still kick in your teeth if you cross him. Oh yeah and you know that 15% kickback we were gonna give you—well f*ck you! you can’t have it because you didn’t do what I wanted you to do—like me! Wahhahaha!

Oh yeah, BC best place on earth, people will pay big bucks to live here, I mean who wouldn’t—ooopss I just frew up!

#7 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.17.10 at 11:10 pm

This is a great post, Garth… a very clear description of what comes next.

“Like many Canadian markets, it is one where fools sell each other property for successively higher prices, financed with increasing piles of debt.”

… I think this is also known as a ponzi scheme: price of an asset keeps going up as new “money” comes in, but the amount of real money supporting the increasing price stays the same or goes down.

I’m going to stick with my comment from yesterday when it comes to this Olympic Village debacle: Millenium Water will be the Lehman Brothers of the Canadian Housing Market.

Vancouver is already well-established in its position as Canada’s biggest housing bubble. The Olympic Village was one of the most overhyped developments in the bubble, and is now probably the biggest story in Canadian Real Estate.

This real estate failure will set off a chain of events: consumer confidence will be the first thing to go, and since sales numbers are already declining, the next step is price declines. Then, panic sets in, and you’ll get a couple of years with double-digit price decreases (-10% or more). By the time the Pan Am games come to Toronto in 2015, the Olympic Village in Vancouver will be remembered much like the developments for Athens and Torino and other host cities: just another set of apartments that could have been built with a lot less money.

#8 Gary Anderson on 11.17.10 at 11:11 pm

I live in Reno, Garth. In 2005 the bubble formed. In 2007 there was a massive crash, not everywhere, but in most places. Then we have had a steady decline in prices. The problem was that wages did not keep up. It became massively cheaper to rent. The easy money loans pushed the prices up.

The inventory build came first, and a house just sold that was literally on the market for nearly 4 years. It was in the horsey set and didn’t come cheap. But it sat and sat and sat. Your little 650k bungalows is pure insanity. I look at those and laugh.

Here is the deal, if China hiccups, and they may stop buying commodities in order to stop QE2, both Australia and Canada will fall, and the fall will be very hard. Only the best areas will keep most of their value. But they better be close to good jobs or even these are toast.

#9 groundzeropat on 11.17.10 at 11:17 pm

On Sunday my wife and I looked at a house in East Vancouver that was reduced from 1.2mil to 1.0 mil. (17% drop). The realtor who was doing the open house was really trying hard to get us interested. We said our max. budget is 900,000K (25% drop) and she said to get my realtor to right up an offer. If this were 6 months ago they would have laughed in my face with an offer low by 100 grand. We’re going to wait. The bankruptcy of olympic village is the beginning of the end. I thought that end would begin in the Spring 2011 not now. Looks like the crash is accelerating.

#10 Devil's Advocate on 11.17.10 at 11:32 pm

The womb is by far the greatest polluter of all.

#11 McLovin on 11.17.10 at 11:36 pm

Groundzeropat – I would pull that offer and offer $600K in nine months.

#12 Ardi on 11.17.10 at 11:39 pm

‘Sales fall first. Prices later. Usually a lot later’
You previously said price falls a few months later – 90 days. Correct me if I am wrong.

You are corrected. — Garth

#13 TaxHaven on 11.17.10 at 11:41 pm

Problem is, this delusion won’t properly end until a)Ottawa has trouble marketing its debt at acceptable rates and b) unemployment spikes.

I’m out of the country, so I hear very little about the job situation. According to the Vancouver Sun, it’s a non-issue because they simply refuse to cover anything except Sunshine, Lollipops and Rainbows.

Next they’ll bring back Bobby Gimby.

And, at least in the media, Canadian bonds look lily-white compared to those of Ireland, Greece, California, Belarus or Iceland…

#14 JT on 11.17.10 at 11:42 pm

On the http://www.crea.ca site when you check under MLS stats, it shows Victoria average Oct/10 price as 343 747 and Oct/09 as 481500. Is this a mistake or am I reading this correctly?

#15 Kevin on 11.18.10 at 12:04 am

Garth, its different in Saskatchewan.
because we have affordable housing. Well…. maybe we did at one time not long ago.
Affordable housing in Saskatoon?
http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2010/11/affordable-housing-in-saskatoon.html

#16 Desperately seeking solutions on 11.18.10 at 12:08 am

Any chance of connecting me with a decent fee-based planner in Vancouver? Whether it be the one you mentioned in the post or another. I want help picking my bundle of preferreds and bonds that pay me. My TFSA can be doing a lot better than 1%. Thanks…

#17 Marco on 11.18.10 at 12:09 am

I wish I had a camera for a priceless shot… I was at a parking lot on Arbutus and 16th in Vancouver this PM. Parked next to me was a BMW X6 with a REALTOR (R) at the wheel (plate: REMAX1). I was in my Jeep (plate: REPO1 – bought in cash).

I walked up to him and asked if we could work something out, he raises prices and pumps greater fools into buying what they can’t afford, then pass me the details as leads.

I meant it as a joke… He thought I was serious…

I laughed all the way home (2 blocks) where I am renting for 30% of what it would cost to buy the house and keeping enough cash to outright buy an average house in Vancouver in a broad, balanced portfolio which returned me 14% tax free this year so far. I am debt free, and I have a kid who understands dad is working for him and not for a bank.

I think I will buy that guy’s X6 in about a year when his commission based job will no longer make him enough to keep up the payments.

I think next year I’m buying a new set of plates, VULTR1…

#18 Steve from Calgary on 11.18.10 at 12:10 am

Garth, I went back home to Saskatoon recently to visit my parents. They had one of those free magazines put together by Realtors..”Homes” or some claptrap. Flipping through this “magazine”, I laughed out loud when I read the foreword from the editor who said, and I’m paraphrasing, “that it used to be the farmer who died a millionaire lived in his ’64 bungalow all his life. But now times have changed and it’s okay to show off you’ve got money.” I laughed further when I saw some of the advertisements for dilapidated places that hadn’t been touched since the ’80s for sale as “investment property”. I felt a distinct sense of Deja Vu. Wasn’t this 2006 in Calgary all over again? Poor, slow Saskatchewan. Can’t you look west to Alberta and see how this story plays out? It’s like the Twilight Zone. At least they have the Riders.

#19 AxeHead on 11.18.10 at 12:14 am

The problem with Saskatchewan is that it’s … well … Saskatchewan, Weyburn not excluded.

Here in Red Deer,, Alberta, housing prices are very close to Weyburn prices but we’re 6 times the size and 1.5 hrs from major metropolitan centers (Calgary, Edmonton)….and they are seriously overpriced.

#10 DA – what the hell was that?

#20 Utopia on 11.18.10 at 12:18 am

Why the hell didn’t you tell me you were going to be in Weyburne. I would have driven up there on a moments notice as I was unable to attend your Saskatoon engagement.

I am so annoyed!

#21 rentin on 11.18.10 at 12:20 am

supply vs demand

supply is driven by necessity

demand is driven by desire

no desire right now, and no need to sell, yet….

#22 Utopia on 11.18.10 at 12:21 am

#10 Devil’s Advocate on 11.17.10 at 11:32 pm

“The womb is by far the greatest polluter of all”.
——————————————————–

We all heard you the first time you made that offensive remark. Now shut the hell up.

#23 604genX on 11.18.10 at 12:23 am

Here’s the latest forecast for November Greater Vancouver sales-to-listings. Still the lowest ratio in 10 years (except for 2008 credit crisis when the wheels blew off). This is a smaller drop than the last few months. Is the tide turning, or is it a sucker’s rally in volume? We’ll know in a few months….

Projection for November, 2010:

Sales = 2,541 (-17.6% YoY)
New Listings = 3,500
Current Sell/List = 72.6%

#24 Hosehead on 11.18.10 at 12:24 am

400K for a home in Weyburn, SK. Yikes. It better have a garage full of potash. If that is the case, the 650 dump in east van from yesterday starts to look like a good deal.

#8 Great comment and insight

#25 VF on 11.18.10 at 12:25 am

Garth,
HOW MUCH LONGER should we wait before buying?? All year you’ve been saying to wait until after the HST comes into effect, until the fall of 2010, until the winter of 2010 etc. Well, we’ve waited and prices in North Toronto haven’t fallen, they keep going UP. It is prohibitively expensive to rent a house or even a condo in this pocket so we’d like to buy. BUT WHEN???????????????????????????? Please advise!

#26 Got A Watch on 11.18.10 at 12:27 am

I apologize for being out of date on some of the water treatment situation. I did not know Halifax had cleaned up their act so much, it does not make the news here. Congratulations to the people there, for finally doing something about that, finally, and I am sorry it costs you some higher taxes etc, but that is part of the price we all have to pay for (hopefully) having a cleaner environment. FWIW I hope the Federal Government chipped in, I don’t mind some of my tax $ going for that purpose at all. Let’s get it done in every city and town, now.

When a “scientist” tells me it’s “OK” to dump it in “deep water”, if that is what they are doing in Victoria, sorry, OttawaMike, forgive me if I don’t believe a word they say.

Vancouver doesn’t sound all that super clean to me: “Primary treatment is a mainly mechanical process that removes between 30 and 40 per cent of BOD and 50 per cent of the TSS. Iona Island and Lions Gate Wastewater Treament Plants both provide primary treatment to the wastewater before the effluent – the remaining water – is released into the surrounding marine environment. Reduced levels of oxygen available in water can create problems for marine and aquatic life. It is because of this need for oxygen that the treatment process is designed to remove the total suspended solids (TSS) and reduce the biological oxygen demand (BOD) of the treated effluent. ” 30-40-50% is not enough, but I guess it’s better than 0, which is what they used to remove, right? 90% removal at the plants that dump into the Fraser River is much better. You say you swim in and fish the waters there, good luck with that, I wouldn’t, myself.

Let me be clear: I am opposed to anyone dumping raw sewage, or “semi-treated” sewage, or whatever, into Oceans, Lakes and streams, anywhere. Period. I have done some of my part by replacing the lousy septic system at my rural home built in the ’70s, it was not cheap and was a lot of work. I just hope it works properly, the very sandy soil here helps a lot, my well water is very clean but has a lot of natural minerals.

I would hope by this late date, we would have no cities or towns in Canada still doing this, we aren’t in the 19th Century anymore. I know they still do this routinely in many countries, and that is absolutely disgraceful. So shame on Windsor, and Detroit, and anyone else dumping sewage water. I know Toronto has had a problem with the overflowing storm sewers. Detroit, well, they are flat broke, but the US Federal Government should step in and do the right thing, instead of wasting their money on so many other stupid things. Shame on anyone, anywhere, still doing this.
I have heard in Panama they dump everything in the ocean there, lots of big chemical plants doing God only knows what with their waste, probably dumping it right in the ocean untreated. That’s just one example, I’m sure they aren’t the only ones. China has severely contaminated groundwater. Etc.

I just feel really sorry for the marine life, the fish, seals, birds etc who have to live in our waste products. When I hear a food scientist telling me not to eat any fish more than once a month or whatever, as it is contaminated with mercury and heavy metals and God only knows what else, or when I read about the islands of garbage floating out in the oceans, I just feel sad and angry. We have made such a mess of this planet it is pathetic, humans just suck. I just hope we change our ways before we make this planet totally uninhabitable by any living thing.

#27 ExExpat on 11.18.10 at 12:30 am

#8 Gary Anderson, good summary. And another good point, is Canada really depending on Chinese economic growth and newly rich to keep the bubble going? I don’t know the answer, but I hope not, kind of nuts to think a central planning committee in Beijing is deciding our fates. By the way, I drove by one of those overpriced bungalows for sale on Oak Street in Vancouver on Sunday, I swear it looked like the one Garth posted a photo of a couple of days ago. Unbelievable, thats all I can say.

#28 The Original Dave on 11.18.10 at 12:47 am

‘Sales fall first. Prices later. Usually a lot later’
You previously said price falls a few months later – 90 days. Correct me if I am wrong.

You are corrected. — Garth
———————————————————–

sorry G man, but what do you think caused the velocity of price declines that we were seeing in 2008 prior to any stock market crash? I associated the problems in real estate at the time with the fact that prices were too high, unemployment etc. The past year rates were dropped and prices and activity spiked and have climaxed.

How does today differ from a couple of years ago when prices were declining with velocity. You can’t possibly believe that it will take years from the point we’re at now for prices to start declining. The drop in listings is just angry sellers. They’ve taken their properties off the market because they’re not getting the prices they want, at the same time, the houses that are selling aren’t at new highs.

When spring rolls around and the angry sellers list again, they’re obviously not going to get higher prices than in a market like now with less supply. You’d have to imagine price declines will begin at the latest in the spring of 2011.

I’m hearing that places like Brampton are getting really ugly, so some areas have started much sooner.

#29 Joseph [Original] on 11.18.10 at 12:48 am

ROCK ON!

#30 groundzeropat on 11.18.10 at 12:50 am

#11 McLovin on 11.17.10 at 11:36 pm
Groundzeropat – I would pull that offer and offer $600K in nine months

Funny, that’s what my wife said because her friend in Las Vegas’ 5000 sq/ft. mansion dropped from 1.1 mil in 2006 to 300K today and still cannot sell.

#31 cellar dweller on 11.18.10 at 12:51 am

#6 Patz.
Hilarious ! Was commuting home and listening to the radio(CKNW) and Bill Bennett cursing his firing.

By the way. Where is “Right All The Time”‘s smug rebuttal? .

It wasnt just Garth calling the Real Estate armageddon. Other ‘doomsayers” like The Economist magazine were predicting “Bad Times” from 2010 to 2012, several years back.
I love that term “Boomers Real Estate Retreat.” .
It sums it up perfectly…….

#32 The Original Dave on 11.18.10 at 12:52 am

This stage can last for some time – maybe a year, even – until economic conditions change, forcing people to sell their homes.

————————————————-

ah okay. I read your comment wrong. I thought you said it could last a year or even more. Canadians have been tinkering with way too much debt…especially in the last 5 years. We’ve hung in there and it was fun while it lasted. Price declines will come in the spring at the latest. As I said before, prices aren’t rising with the little supply that is out there, imagine when there’s a glut of supply like in the spring market. Prices will be down for sure.

#33 Jeff Smith on 11.18.10 at 12:56 am

Lol, did you hear that formerly bankrupt car company has just issued new shares and they were snapped up like real estate. Do people remember anything? guess not. There is a phoenix and there is a zombie. They both rise from the dead but one is just dead. Get it?

#34 mousey on 11.18.10 at 12:57 am

Well, well, well. The Olympic Village leaned over, heaved, groaned and then finally pitched over into receivership. Remember the glossy ad that ran in the Vancouver Sun about one month ago? The one with Senator Campbell looking avuncular and that nice couple huddled over their composite counter top (sort of Sea Monkey-like)? You know the one, it ran something like, there is something new at the Millenium Waterfront. Well there is something new alright, but not something you want to see if you’ve paid full dollar for your unit. Good grief…a receiver has just moved in and is your new neighbour. It’s all so awful it’s almost funny. CBC just ran an interview with a Vancouver Councillor who did an admirable job of selling the receivership as really the best option for everybody. Yes, the other options were that bad: litigation, marketing chaos, empty units forever, angry tax payors, angry owners. I really feel badly for the folks that bought into this project and of course for us Vancouverites who will have to cover any losses for this overpriced, arrogant project which was as much a homage to our collective egos as a place to hang a few ski bags for a couple of weeks. And so, the saga continues.

#35 cellar dweller on 11.18.10 at 12:59 am

#10 Devils Advocate
WOW ! Somebody is in a bad mood.
Take a pill, swig some scotch, close yer eyes and think happy thoughts.

Repeat.

#36 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.18.10 at 1:04 am


“Some nights are better than others.” — Moving on to another topic of interest . . .

One gets a gut feeling that would-be property virgins are beginning to realize a sense of normalcy in renting, that it’s fine to hunker down and stash as much cash into TFSAs and other investments.

A couple does not NEED to have a house, it’s NOT a right and it’s NOT a requirement by society’s standards (remember: screw society and stuff the establishment).

Better to look after one another, and let this nasty storm pass on by. It will have an effect, of course; all hurricanes leave their mark.
*
Rebirth of Pierre Trudeau in China.

Silver stopped High demand, can’t keep up.

5:14 clip Massive Economic Supercycle. As said before, a bunch of old cycles are coming to an end, and new ones replacing them.

Mike the Engineer — Second para., first sentence. Plenty of other stuff as well.

Soros Now it’s clear why he bankrolled Obama into the WH, and is destroying North and Central America. Both are Marxists, plus the cycles of humanity are changing anyway.

Stressed on the job?

Powder Keg France is but one country.

Men In Black Space? Science, etc. Too difficult for me to understand!

That Georgie Boy Soros is a real playboy who loves to flaunt his wealth! Links in. Also — Who’s Yer Daddy? Pulling Obama’s strings.

Health Bill US style. Almost certainly this was another Soros initiative, to hasten the speed at which the US is declining. Soros supports China and its policies.

F-22 Raptor Was this conveniently removed from action for a FF, date yet to be determined? Also goes with this.

#37 Junius on 11.18.10 at 1:12 am

Dark Sad Person, BestPlaceOnEarth and RightAlltheTime,

I was reading an article about bubbles and noticed that one of the bubbles being discussed was Gold. The other was Chinese Real Estate.

I no, I no DSP. They know “shit” because they are obviously children compared to you. Perhaps you would like to respond and illuminate us all with your insight and erudite opinion. Here is what the article says:

“The president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Navayana Kocherlakota, recently published a paper in which he argues that government guarantees helped fuel the bubble in real estate. While his paper was largely aimed at prescribing solutions to this problem, it raises the question: What other bubbles are lurking out there in the global economy? We asked several experts and to our surprise, they had a long list:

1. Gold: The price of gold bullion has risen from $294 an ounce in 1998 to $1,404 last week, an increase of 377%. “It’s the biggest, baddest bubble of them all,” says Robert Wiedemer, author of Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown. Gold has no intrinsic value. A telltale indicator that gold is a bubble: incessant cocktail party chatter about buying gold and endless TV commercials offering to buy gold jewelry. The SPDR Gold Trust(GLD) ETF is up 28% since the beginning of the year.

Note that #2 is for our good West Coast friends the zippy BestPlaceonEarth and the always right RightAllTheTime. It says that the #2 bubble is Re in China. Which if it comes down is no doubt going to crap all over your theories on West Coast Real Estate. Would love to hear you opinions on this. I don’t have enough comedy in my life. Here it is:

2. Real estate in China: Chinese real estate prices are up only 9.1% this year, which may seem more frothy than bubbly. But rising prices are generating rising demand, which is a clear sign of a bubble, says Vikram Mansharamani, whose book, Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst, will be published early next year. The participation of amateur investors like waiters and maids in the property boom is a clear sign of a property bubble in China. The fact that developers are building more apartments than there are buyers is another giveaway.”

Go ahead. Make my day.

#38 groundzeropat on 11.18.10 at 1:13 am

#14 JT on 11.17.10 at 11:42 pm

Yeah I read that too on the CREA website, 29% drop in Victoria house “PRICE’S” not sales volumes from Oct. 09 to Oct. 10, but that will never make it to front page news for all the usual reasons. The newspapers are busy pumping “sunshine” up everyone’s rear ends. Fall & Winter in Vancouver means “sunshine” is in short supply so we’ll see just how fast the curtains close on this circus act. Vancouver is experiencing 10-20% price drops already one listing at a time just like what I saw last Sunday.

#39 Ratchet on 11.18.10 at 1:16 am

If there’s a house in Kipling worth 400000, (which I doubt) it’s either retired farmers and it’s free and clear, or a rigger making 6 figs. Neither of them would live in either Vancouver or Toronto. They’d rather cut off their own feet.

#40 Junius on 11.18.10 at 1:20 am

#7 T.O. Bubble Boy,

The really interesting thing about the Olympic Village is that the only real lesson that can be learned is that sometimes it is all about timing.

If the Olympics had been held in 2008 it would have sold out for sure. It was just a few months late and a bit too pricy and that made all the difference.

Of course the buyers would be screwed but that wouldn’t have been so public or embarrassing.

The bankruptcy of Millenium is actually a good thing. Now the City along with the receiver can take charge and move forward with a reasonable plan to get the units sold before the market falls further. With any luck they will fire sale them out and then we can move on. A decade from now the neighbourhood will look great and be vibrant again.

#41 cellar dweller on 11.18.10 at 1:22 am

YOOO HOOOOOO
RighAllTheTime (AKA : Im Smart, Everyone Else STOOPID)
Hope you bought a investment condo at Millenium Village. ‘Cause yer smart. We’re dumb. We dont understand that prices in Vancouve ALWAYS go up year over year over year.
Are you old enough to remember the poor saps that bought in Van in the early 80’s?( yeah yeah interest rates were 18% and greater BUT people werent maxed out on credit back then). Houses selling for 250k were going unsold a year later for 120k.
It’ll NEVER happen in Vancouver you say?
It already has.

#42 cellar dweller on 11.18.10 at 1:24 am

gotta go, squirrel stew is boiling over.

#43 vomitingdog on 11.18.10 at 1:27 am

The closer we get to RE Armageddon, the more your writing style approaches the great Hunter S. Thompson.

#44 Peter Pan on 11.18.10 at 1:34 am

“Success has 1000 fathers but failure is an orphan.”

Interesting how Bob “The King” Rennie, Sam Sullivan, Gregor Robertson and the Maleks are running away from Millenium at warp speed. Millenium Waters will be the City of Vancouver’s orphan and he will be very expensive to raise to maturity…

#45 HouseBuster on 11.18.10 at 1:39 am

Vancouver? Yeah right.

That Millennium Water project was destined for failure from day 1. Did anyone actually believe it was going to be a success? I’ve got some Florida swamp land for you if you did.

#46 Tim on 11.18.10 at 1:49 am

I’m glad they’re not brains… keep the pics coming Garth. The BC cabinet made a mistake and canned the wrong guy. Campbell set the bar at an all time low of 9% popularity. Who else would give a tax break out of despiration and then rescind it when they found out they wouldn’t be king anymore? Why did he hire a new press secretary just two weeks before he was forced to leave-I mean “decided to step down”? Hopefully he will be implicated in the BC Rail scandal. How could he not be involved? He hasn’t done anything for the people of BC except to pave roads and give lucrative contracts to his developer buddies. He is about as far from Liberal as Stephen Harper. You are going down Gordo!

#47 timbo on 11.18.10 at 1:50 am

Collapse Of The Entire World Economy In 24 hours
this one should give you food for thought.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_atOvrTtT8&feature=related

speaking of food, (from calculated risk)
A ham sandwich walks into a bar. Bartender says, “sorry, we don’t serve food here.”

#48 The Coming Depression on 11.18.10 at 1:54 am

Forget housing we know that will collapse, have you looked at the restaurant scene? Walk around trendy Yaletown during a Vancouver game on the tube, not one person watching it at the Cactus club! The restaurants are completely EMPTY during the week and minimal on the weekend. I walked by a new restaurant during dinner and NOT ONE person was in it. They were staring outside with hollow eyes. What a loud bang you’ll hear across the land in about 90 days or less.

#49 Alan on 11.18.10 at 1:55 am

Got to wonder Garth when you finally start to believe the song you’ve been singing has now lost it’s band and now it’s back-up singers. Won’t be long before the customers have all left the auditorium too. Time to start banging a new drum.

#50 Tim on 11.18.10 at 1:59 am

“Take the failure of the Millennium Water project, for example. There was absolutely no doubt that delusional entrepreneurs selling condos for $800 a square foot (and up) in a regional Canadian city would go belly up.”

What is even more stunning is how our city council could be so stupid as to negotiate the deal they did. No apologies, no law suites, just business as usual in the Narco province, fueled by immature, arrogant, corrupt politicians and drug money…too bad California didn’t legalize pot, our real estate market probably would have tanked overnight

#51 april on 11.18.10 at 1:59 am

Garth, you say housing prices are within 1% of 2009 levels. According to media reports earlier in 2010 prices went up from ’09 to ’10 [if that’s to be believed] so have we dropped back to 2009 levels?
Thanks

#52 Devore on 11.18.10 at 2:02 am

#5 Bobby

Here in Victoria where I live, there are about 4 homes within a 3 wood shot of each other. Been for sale for a long time.

Nothing is moving.

The situation in Victoria in undeniable, stats speak for themselves. Not only are sales through the floor, the prices are clearly trending down now.

Here’s one for you. — Garth

Even’s got a truck in the driveway!

#53 Tim on 11.18.10 at 2:07 am

CBC: Canada Housing Bubble a Danger

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/11/17/housing-bubble-warning.html?ref=patrick.net#storyhead

Finally being reported in the mainstream media…

#54 kitchener1 on 11.18.10 at 2:09 am

Here is my take on things from out here in blue collar Kitchener and from my recent meetings and talks with friends in various sectors. Ill start with RE

Meet up with a few friends in Guelph over the weekend, they are resdential investors, and between the 3 of them own 12 properties combined. They all say the same thing– very hard to find good long term tenants and they have a lost a few “grade a” tenants over the last 3 months. Seems that too many people purchased homes and second homes with the 5%/35 year CMHC loans.

Property manager buddy tells me that many large REIT’s in Toronto- West GTA have tons of empty units, trending very hign and their turnarounds are huge compared to the average.

RE buddy tells me that things are getting very bad on the outskirts. Brampton sales are slowing, Barrie is dead and Durham is getting worse– in his opinon only thing that is keeping things alright is lack of listings. says that Toronto proper is still doing ok, also tells me that buyers are waiting it out longer, no rush.

Mortgage broker pal says that demand is way way down, thinks things will get very ugly 90 days out if the current trend continues. seeing a lot of people let there mortgage approvals expire and not bothering to renew.

Manufacturing contacts tell me that auto sector is having inventory issues again, to much built- not enough sales, small machine shops having a tougher go. Honda in Allistion is talking about going to a 4 day work week.

On my side- design/build things are steady and increasing a bit, more buildouts and some lease space is moving–but only due to heavy discounting.

Just in my personal opinon– people who have never talked about RE to me or investments are starting to tell me that prices are to high, Canada has to get out of debt. lots of personal stories about how bad debt is etc..

Dont know what to make off it yet, but it almost seems to me that we are seeing a huge shift in attitude. Here is an good analogy.

I remeber years ago, when banks used to approve you for 20-30K lines of credit, it was something that co-workers would sort of brag about, like they were proud about being given that much credit. Now a days, if banks give you that much credit, its almost like there is backlash against it. People saying look, they must be desperate, all they want is for people to get into debt etc..

Seems like the recession and personal debt issues are really starting to hit home for a lot of people. Im hereing the same rumblings from people that do not follow markets/read finance blogs etc..

time will tell, but my take, one bad drop in the stock market, or a raise in rates and RE is dropping hard. when the market tanks, it will not be a soft landing.

#55 Tim on 11.18.10 at 2:09 am

Olympic Village Put in Receivership

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/101118/national/olympic_village

Is anyone surprised? What is surprising is how the City Councilors can keep their jobs after negotiating such a stupid agreement…

#56 West Coast on 11.18.10 at 2:18 am

I’m so glad those are not brains.

#57 Devil's Advocate on 11.18.10 at 2:19 am

Hey Mickey,

Glad to hear you’re doing so well. I haven’t had much time to write as I’ve been busy fighting with other posters. I sure do bring out the worst in people!!!

What do you think – is the womb the greatest polluter of all or what? We’ve gotta get our act together and stop letting just anyone have kids. We need something like rent control for parents.

I’m just glad I got dumped out of that trash can or I wouldn’t be able to come here and share my nuggets of wisdom!

#58 bcPaul on 11.18.10 at 2:19 am

#10 Devil’s Advocate on 11.17.10 at 11:32 pm
The womb is by far the greatest polluter of all.

And what does this have to do with real estate and/or the enconomy?

#59 gold bugger on 11.18.10 at 2:55 am

In economic terms it’s called “price stickiness.”
Prices take a long time to change direction.
Once a seller gets a number in his head, every adjustment to meet the prevailing market feels like a loss, even though that padding was never real in the first place.
Once the ball gets rolling, however, ooh boy. Look out.

#60 supersocco on 11.18.10 at 2:59 am

“Victoria average Oct/10 price as 343 747 and Oct/09 as 481500”
I see that too. What the?

#61 Williston Geo on 11.18.10 at 3:36 am

If only oil booms lasted as long as mortgages. Weyburn/Estevan are screwed when drilling slows down a little.

#62 Outside the Box on 11.18.10 at 4:03 am

It would be so easy to harp on Vancouver as NOT being TheBestPlaceOnEarth to live due to that $1 Billion loan loss in RE there, but I won’t. It’s not just Vancouver people being fooled into bigger and bigger debts it’s not just in Canada either (look at Ireland, UK, Spain, Portual, Greece even Hong Kong).

“This town needs an enima” – Joker in Batman

Garth is right, RE is a state of mind and that state is turning downwards.

Could it be we do not have enough greater fools left to be sacrified on the alter of RE debt?

#63 confused and a little crazed on 11.18.10 at 4:17 am

i think Vancouver will just stay 15-20 % below what is now…simply because it ‘a religion here. even when it happens…they will say it wasn’t the right neighborhood or the other area was better…whatever it takes to keep the delusion going even if it is 2 themselves …but the olympic village is going to crash it has everything wrong for it 1)there are 4 developments surrounding it …probably finish march april 2010. 2)price like Downtown but isn’t downtown
3)made poorly…too quick 4) public stigma …wow you bought there???
why buy there when there are so many places ready for next year . Are people going to care if they bought a place where an olympic athlete lived?

#64 Leith on 11.18.10 at 5:09 am

Hi Garth. Your post a few weeks back entitled “Boomers” inspired me to undertake a detailed analysis of the impact that Boomer retirement will have on the Australian housing market:

http://www.unconventionaleconomist.com/2010/11/baby-boomers-retirement-and-asset.html

Let’s just say the results are sobering. Yet Australia’s mainstream delusional economists and property ‘experts’ completely ignore this phenomenom, instead spruiking ‘high rates of household formation’, ‘strong underlying demand’ and ‘pent-up demand’. When will they learn?

#65 Stevie Why ?? on 11.18.10 at 5:12 am

Here’s hoping that Weyburn doesn’t have anything more in common with Detroit than their REDWINGS …..

#66 atidnil on 11.18.10 at 7:16 am

Toronto star wrote:
“We have allowed armies of hormonal young couples without money to buy homes,” said Garth Turner, a former MP who now makes his living selling books and giving scary speeches about a coming disaster he likes to call “Houseageddon.”

If they mention you Garth means they believe what you say but they don’t want to say it themselves. I am keeping track of where is this newspaper heading in terms of real estate.

Agree with you. But I believe this was from the Globe & Mail. Here. — Garth

#67 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.18.10 at 7:22 am

I guess it’s not just the Canadian MSM that spew rainbows and sunshine when reporting on the housing market…

This international property site proudly repeats all of the Canadian housing bubble myths:

http://www.property-abroad.com/canada/news-story/canadian-housing-market-escapes-bubble-19316932/

“Canadian economists and housing market bulls are not only breathing a sigh of relief as it now looks likely that there was no bubble in the Canadian housing market, but lauding everyone who ever dared suggest such an outlandish scenario.

The comments come as sales figures and prices stabilise across the market, with a slight rise in sales recorded for October. This allows analysts to look back and say, yes, home resales fell 30% per month for a time earlier this year, but prices were largely resilient across the country.

“If you’ve ever wondered what a soft landing in housing looks like, this may well be it,” said Pascal Gauthier, a senior economist at the Toronto-Dominion Bank, commenting on Monday’s data.

According to a calculation by BMO Capital Markets that removes distortions in the raw data from real-estate agents, the average Canadian house price is 4% higher than last year. This is much more sustainable than the double digit growth seen in 2009.

The news is especially good considering that Canadian economic growth is slowed considerably in the last few months. Falling house prices would almost certainly drag down economic growth even further, not least because of the effect it has on consumer confidence.

When the American housing market crisis crossed the Atlantic, many people forecast that Canada simply had to be battered by it, because, of course historically Canada has caught a cold everytime American sneezed. But not this time.

The Canadian housing market was not made up in the same way as to facilitate such a bubble; most importantly because mortgage lending was never deregulated in the same way, and in fact remained conservative during the boom.”

#68 buyright on 11.18.10 at 7:29 am

re #25
HOW MUCH LONGER should we wait before buying??

The advise Garth gives us here is excellent and free
Im sure the use of his crystal ball will cost you

Patience

#69 David B on 11.18.10 at 7:40 am

Olympic Village ….

Good deals en route in the new year …..go one and all to the TD Bank and get cash for two …. fill the joint and prices will double … WOW …. can you believe the luck of those smart investers who live in BC! WOW

It’s a win win win … location, location location.

Really?

#70 Moneta on 11.18.10 at 8:03 am

BUT WHEN???????????????????????????? Please advise
———
When you’re pretty sure everyone who will need to foreclose on the street you plan to move on will have done so and when you’re pretty sure you won’t be the only one paying for the garbage truck and cutting everyone’s grass to keep the value of your house up.

As you can see, this won’t be in 90 days.

#71 MythBuster on 11.18.10 at 8:27 am

TREB mid-November stats:

November is doing exactly what we would anticipate based on weak activity in September-October: Month over month DECLINES in both sales and average price.

M/M sales down from 6,681 to (projected) 6,152 (down 7.9%), and price down from 443,729 to 437,554 (down 1.4%).

NOTE: I interpret the larger decline in sales and smaller decline in average price to mean: Fewer buyers bought units that have come down in price from higher levels – albeit still higher than prices in October, even after declines. Cheapos are gone.

The current decline confirms that the feeble rises in September and October were indeed a bear market rally that lasted only 2 months.

Now I anticipate that the 2nd half of November will be MUCH WORSE THAN THE 1ST HALF.

Garth: I don’t think we need to wait a year for all to see the unraveling of the real-estate market in the GTA.

#72 oasis on 11.18.10 at 8:29 am

Gold plunged again. The dollar stumbled. Commodity prices crashed. Bond yields soared. So did the US dollar. This wasn’t in the game plan of those who thought economic shocks were passé, Yankee dollars were going to zero, gold was on its way to two grand an ounce or real estate was in nascent renaissance.
___________________________________________________________

oh no garth… one short day later, and all that has changed again. Gold and commodities are skyrocketing again, the US dollar is plunging along with US bonds, and the world is right again. …

listen. i don’t want to upset you. but the americans are printing money and debauching their currency. anyone can see that. until they stop doing that, nothing will change.

If life were that simple, you’d be the perfect investor. — Garth

#73 David B on 11.18.10 at 8:49 am

Olympic Village (West Coast)

King’s Wharf (East Coast)

http://kingswharf.ca/index.php/about/news/development_will_bring_new_life_to_dartmouth/

In this morning METRO, the article reads in part 60% sold with a picture of a corner suite with breathtaking view of the Halifax skyline.

I was once told 50% of all Condo units were sold as investments. So that would mean 30% sold. Will things go well here … who knows?

And here and there lies the problem, Real Estate as an investment.

Also tucked away in the METRO ….. American tells all Canadian Real Estate highly overpriced …..

#74 fancy_pants on 11.18.10 at 8:52 am

Hey, cool, free T-shirt with a purchase of a home in Weyburn.

Well, at $400k, it does sound like a good buy. Nice girls and nice weather… almost as good as Elliot Lake, Ontario.

The only reason a RE correction hasn’t occured yet up in this fine land is b/c it is so different up here. The land of hooters and sunshine. What could go wrong?

That T-shirt slogan will be so true for many a sheeple when the hammer falls.

#75 Nancy on 11.18.10 at 8:56 am

Canadians have a new disease called Regional Delusion Syndrome, like a real-estate “My Dad Can Lick Your Dad.”

Sask and Alta think everybody wants to move there because of the oil. (I mean, who wouldn’t want to retire in beautiful Fort Mac??)

BC thinks it’s the hot place to be because they have an ocean and some mountains (and rain and earthquakes and landslides and tsunami risk…).

GTA and Ottawa think everybody wants to move *there* because… well, you go me on that one. People dig traffic and line-ups maybe?

Even Newfoundland is getting in on the delusion, because of all that oil. And all that laundry hanging on their clotheslines.

Then all the other places — Quebec, Man, nonmetro Ont, Maritimes — where nothing is going on, they make up reasons why people want to live in their town instead of the next town. The economy’s more balanced here, we’ve got a prettier lake, we’ve got a Tim’s.

It’s all delusion. Everybody can’t want to live everywhere.

Besides, everyone hates moving.

#76 Keith in Calgary on 11.18.10 at 8:56 am

The Calgary Herald, that bastion of unbridled ethical journalism which is free of advertising influence and coersion didn’t have a single mention yesterday or today of the Olympic Village’s demise in Vancouver.

Errrrr…….let me rephrase that.

Those crooked unethical editorial bastards at the Calgary Herald, who are firmly in the back pockets of their only remaining monetary advertiser of note, the “Real Estate Industrial Complex” have deliberately kept the story of this countries’ most noteworthy and imagine conscious symbol of our real estate crash out of their paper and their website lest it upset their REIC masters, and cause the public at large more disconcern.

Assume the position Mr and Mrs BC Taxpayer……the short lived cancellation of the HST is now over, in case you didn’t notice, and you’re about to get a handful of that beautiful English Bay sand thrown in before they apply the lube.

#77 Brian1 on 11.18.10 at 9:02 am

I guess the only thing that will speed up the downturn would be a stock crash but that is unlikely. I still think the markets are being manipulated, which may be a good thing. Others on the blog have alluded to a plunge protection team but you say this is bogus. I wouldn’t know but what was Reagan doing that day when DSP says that this did happen?

Fiction. Every country with a mature financial system and open capital markets tries to limit volatility, but there is no state-sponsored market manipulation. That’s tin foil stuff. — Garth

#78 Contrarian on 11.18.10 at 9:05 am

>>”So sales may decline, but prices stick.”

Actually, it makes sense for prices to rise for a period of time. Poorer people tend to be less rational/objective about the value of their homes than rich people. So, the proportion of expensive houses to cheap houses goes up for a short period of time.

Take a look at the latest TREB report. The number of $1 million+ homes sold in October was actually greater this year than last year despite overall sales being down by 21%. Though this is hardly a statistically significant figure, it should become more solid if these trends persist.

#79 Brian1 on 11.18.10 at 9:26 am

My apartment building is undergoing an unjustified rent increase above the guideline. Some have asked my opinion. I have seen this coming for 18 years and suggested that we obtain a lawyer rather than a paralegal, but they don’t want to go for it complaining about the expense. Well I’m preparing to move in 2 or 3 years because I think the rent tribunal will be useless as rents will fall all by themselves along with house prices. That will be a nice cozy job for a couple of years at the tribunal.
I wasn’t ready to buy 18 years ago, but after 8 years I was so angry at the price increases that I accepted the rent game and,of course, I feel better off now.
I think a lawyer is better than a paralegal from personal experience. I once took my landlord to court over parking, she wanted me out, and I used a paralegal. I began to suspect she bribed him as she gave him work. The clincher was that after I lost, he basically did nothing, she felt the need to rub it in and said to me, “Next time, get a lawyer”, where she herself used a paralegal (she manages a lot of properties).
So I wonder, is it possible that a lawyer could lose to a paralegal. If so, I think it should be advertised and the so-called lawyer should not be able to get work; or the paralegal should be allowed to practice law. Everybody, why don’t we stick it to them?

#80 Brian1 on 11.18.10 at 9:29 am

I should have mentioned that it took me 18 years to finally realize that the real purpose of rent control increases is to persuade people to buy overpriced properties.

#81 Nibs on 11.18.10 at 9:38 am

“Fiction. Every country with a mature financial system and open capital markets tries to limit volatility, but there is no state-sponsored market manipulation. That’s tin foil stuff. — Garth”

Up until a few weeks a go I would have totally agreed. After Helicopter Ben Bernanke’s comments, I’m not so sure:

“This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again. Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate the most recent action….higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion.”

http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2010/11/04/crazy-days-and-what-to-do-about-them/

#82 Live within your means on 11.18.10 at 9:57 am

#48 The Coming Depression on 11.18.10 at 1:54 am

Here on the east coast I think restaurants are also suffering. It’s not just unemployment. We no longer go out to restaurants we used to enjoy because sharing a bottle of wine in a restaurant is extremely expensive, will put you over the limit, and taxis to and fro would cost us at least $40. When we do go to dinner at friends/relatives and drive, we take turns being the DD. Prefer to entertain at home.

……………..

Re Victoria RE. Spoke to an old high school friend a couple of yrs ago who lives in Sooke in a Mobile. Her retirement plans were to build a home on her property, along with her bro and SIL from somewhere else in BC. Plans were cancelled – just too expensive – can’t recall all the details.

#83 bolted lettuce on 11.18.10 at 10:06 am

That’s tin foil stuff. — Garth

Isn’t that answer like a security blanket designed to keep the people from looking beneath the bed or asking if the game is been rigged?

“But I mean, when you say “the system is so bad” I don’t even know what that means. I mean, slave societies went on for centuries and centuries without any challenges. Okay. Did that justify them?

And in fact, if you really want to be serious about it the slave owners were giving arguments rather like yours. So slavery, very much like it….”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFxYyXGMfZM

#84 Devil's Advocate on 11.18.10 at 10:12 am

#19 AxeHead on 11.18.10 at 12:14 am
#10 DA – what the hell was that?

That was imposter DA.

#22 Utopia on 11.18.10 at 12:21 am
#10 Devil’s Advocate on 11.17.10 at 11:32 pm
“The womb is by far the greatest polluter of all”.
——————————————————–
We all heard you the first time you made that offensive remark. Now shut the hell up.

First time WAS me, that time (#10 comment) was the imposter DA.

None the less, it was not intended to be an “offensive” remark. It is factual. As long as the human race continues to propagate and insist on altering the environment to what it believes “most suitable” to it’s way of life there will continue to be adverse consequences for all species including itself.

#58 bcPaul on 11.18.10 at 2:19 am
#10 Devil’s Advocate on 11.17.10 at 11:32 pm
The womb is by far the greatest polluter of all.
And what does this have to do with real estate and/or the enconomy?

Demographics…
Economics is the backstory of all economics and demographics is the backstory of all economics.
Figure it out…

#85 Devil's Advocate on 11.18.10 at 10:14 am

sorry typo

Demographics…

Economics is the backstory of all HISTORY and demographics is the backstory of all economics.

Figure it out…

#86 Keith in Calgary on 11.18.10 at 10:26 am

Governments around the world manipulate their financial markets lest they crash, and put said government out of power.

Hardly tin foil hat stuff as it has been going on since the dawn of time.

Anyone who doesn’t think that Barry Obailout and Tim Geithner speak on a regular basis to their bagmen at “Golden Slacks” about when to buy the DJIA basket just before close in order to maintain a certain level of the DOW is deluding themselves.

Where do you think all that printed money is going anyways ? Joe Sixpack certainly isn’t getting any of it……….

#87 BrianT on 11.18.10 at 10:31 am

#24Hose-these numbers are pretty wild-saw a video yesterday of a courthouse steps auction in Kailua-Kona (Big Island-Hawaii)-place valued at $585000 in 2006 went for $120000.

#88 BrianT on 11.18.10 at 10:37 am

#25VF-even if you are desperate and think this site is full of it you should wait until you see a pronounced YOY increase in sales volume. This thing has just started-a large YOY increase in volume would be an indication that we are wrong on the basic premise but that hasn’t happened and won’t happen IMHO. Red hot housing markets don’t often come to a dead stop in less than 6 months-it is gradually slowing-give it a chance.

#89 Junius on 11.18.10 at 10:45 am

#85 DA,

You said,”Economics is the backstory of all HISTORY and demographics is the backstory of all economics.”

Stronger than I would state the case for demographics but certainly I agree they have a substantial influence. So, with an aging Baby Boomer population in Canada what does this tell you about the future of Real Estate?

Exactly.

#90 Doctore on 11.18.10 at 10:54 am

Speaking of Canadians willing to pay whatever cost there is for things and not making much of a stink. Here in Southwest Ontario we pay way too high price for gasoline compared to our American counterparts. Mostly due to taxes we have in Canada, however, the price for supreme is outright ridiculous. There should be no reason supreme is 14 cents a liter more than regular. In the USA they simply would not put up with this, as there is a 6 cent difference on a GALLON (ie. 3.8 liters) between regular and supreme (that would be equiv in canada of 42 cents a gallon difference almost). So with realestate again we agree to pay too much. Not only that we pay too much for mutal fund MER’s, milk and groceries, cars, electronics, power, etc. etc. etc. You name it we Canadians pay way more for things, due to gov taxes and retalier markups than USA. Yet for all the higher taxes and prices, what are we left with? Huge municipal, provincial and Federal defecits, personal deficits to the tune of $ 1 trillion CDN mortgage debt etc. With taxes supposed to increase again in the future CPP, EI, GST, income tax, muni tax, hidden eco fee taxes etc etc etc. What are the gov’s going to do besides continue to squander and messup.

http://www.lfpress.com/news/london/2010/11/17/16188831.html

#91 gutcheck on 11.18.10 at 10:58 am

Great post but people are not hearing your message. You should make it easier to share your message on Facebook with the push of a button. This would get to all those young folks who really need this info. Talk to you webmaster. It can’t be that hard.

#92 BrianT on 11.18.10 at 11:05 am

Interesting article about Vegas-46% of the RE purchases are all cash at this point http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/nov/15/taking-bath-inside-real-estate-bubble/

#93 dark sad person on 11.18.10 at 11:12 am

#37 Junius on 11.18.10 at 1:12 am

Dark Sad Person, BestPlaceOnEarth and RightAlltheTime,

I was reading an article about bubbles and noticed that one of the bubbles being discussed was Gold. The other was Chinese Real Estate.

I no, I no DSP. They know “shit” because they are obviously children compared to you. Perhaps you would like to respond and illuminate us all with your insight and erudite opinion. Here is what the article says:

“The president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Navayana Kocherlakota, recently published a paper in which he argues that government guarantees helped fuel the bubble in real estate. While his paper was largely aimed at prescribing solutions to this problem, it raises the question: What other bubbles are lurking out there in the global economy? We asked several experts and to our surprise, they had a long list:

1. Gold: The price of gold bullion has risen from $294 an ounce in 1998 to $1,404 last week, an increase of 377%. “It’s the biggest, baddest bubble of them all,” says Robert Wiedemer, author of Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown. Gold has no intrinsic value. A telltale indicator that gold is a bubble: incessant cocktail party chatter about buying gold and endless TV commercials offering to buy gold jewelry. The SPDR Gold Trust(GLD) ETF is up 28% since the beginning of the year.

********************

The “experts” said gold is in a bubble-so it has to be huh-
*************
A telltale indicator that gold is a bubble: incessant cocktail party chatter about buying gold and endless TV commercials offering to buy gold jewelry.

*************

That is hilarious although it is true-
“When” that happens gold will be in a bubble-but-here’s the facts of life for you young fella-
No one-especially you-even have a clue what gold is and I’ll bet no one at a cocktail party does either-in fact even here on an economics blog-very few understand it or participate in it-
Gold is not the anti-dollar play-you keep alluding to-
Gold is a currency-just like any other ones and it competes with all currencies-always-
In fact the $ and gold trade together very often-

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/RbmVmJlgCkI/AAAAAAAAAPs/uJ8e5vdJSj8/s1600-h/SpotGold.png

Misinformed people like you always believe gold is an inflation hedge-which is bullshit-
I doubt you know how to interpret charts-because of the drivel you spew-but here’s proof that gold is not a hedge against normal inflation-it is a hedge against credit/default risk as is the USD/CHF–

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/dj-au-ratio-lt.gif

You tell people to sell gold because its going to crash because of bubble characteristics-yet you say you hold 5 or 10% in your portfolio?
How friggen stupid is that-if anyone who “actually” trades thought 5-10% of their portfolio was in a bubble and was going to crash and then held onto it-he/she wouldn’t be trading long-
I don’t think you do hold any gold-i think you’re bluffing and ass kissing G-because of what he says-you repeat-

You see baby junius-RE is in a bubble “because” the herd is involved-
The herd-including you-is not involved in the gold market and when they are-they will be buying it at the very top and at that point-I’ll sell some to you–

#94 BrianT on 11.18.10 at 11:16 am

What a shock! You mean pension fund managers accept bribes for allocating the funds’ capital? I thought they were just trying to do their best to increase the ROI-next thing they will tell us is that NFL players use roids http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Steven-Rattner-sued-in-rb-1463393452.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

#95 Devil's Advocate on 11.18.10 at 11:24 am

#89 Junius on 11.18.10 at 10:45 am#85 DA,

You said,”Economics is the backstory of all HISTORY and demographics is the backstory of all economics.”

Stronger than I would state the case for demographics but certainly I agree they have a substantial influence. So, with an aging Baby Boomer population in Canada what does this tell you about the future of Real Estate?

Exactly.

Well first off Junius, I think we were talking about environmentalism… but so too is it of real estate as in each the increasing world population will have it’s influence. You think Canada is immune to the huge population growth in China and or India? Those who claim Vancouver is benefiting by immigrant Chinese are not entirely wrong. When I went to UBC we had an immigrant population, now UBC is known as The “University of a Billion Chinese”.

Most certainly the current real estate situation is a consequence of demographics. Demographer and economist David Foot and many, many others warned us what to expect long before Garth wrote his first book on the matter. That does not preclude that demographics will continue to be a driving force in the future. Do you honestly believe for one moment that it stops with the “Baby Boomers”? Not a chance. There are still to come many an opportunity and a whole lot more challenges.

Not long ago our city was crying that there were not enough rental units available to satisfy the demand and that those which were available cost too much (supply and demand – go figure eh?). I wrote the paper forecasting that in the not to distant future it would cease to be a concern. Guess what – we have a swack of available units for rent now at relatively more affordable prices. (Rents are up over what they were then but not nearly so much as home ownership costs).

It comes down to demographics peppered with fear and salted with greed.

So the moral of the story – this too shall pass.

Just to be accurate, my book ‘2015’ on the impact of demographics on markets was published in 1995, a year before David Foot’s work.– Garth

#96 Basil Fawlty on 11.18.10 at 11:25 am

“That’s tin foil stuff. — Garth”
This is from Wikipedia and the information is common knowledge. The “Working Group” was created by executive order. Why people continue to think this is conspiracy theory is beyond my comprehension. Nuff said!

“The Working Group on Financial Markets (also, President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, the Working Group, and colloquially the Plunge Protection Team) was created by Executive Order 12631,[1] signed on March 18, 1988 by United States President Ronald Reagan.”

#97 sk76driver on 11.18.10 at 11:29 am

Latest contest….

1st prize: ALL EXPENSE PAID TRIP TO WEYBURN!!!!!

2nd prize: 2 TRIPS TO WEYBURN!!!!

3rd prize: 3 TRIPS TO WEYBURN!!!!

People WANT to move to Weyburn??? And they say people in Vancouver are hopped up on dope…

WANT to move to Weyburn….that is some funny shit right there…..

#98 Herb on 11.18.10 at 11:33 am

Brian1 at #79,

there are good lawyers and sloppy ones (had a really sloppy one who was in a hurry to boot when I got divorced 30 years ago, and it took almost 20 years to recover.) Had another one in a Small Claims Court case against a tenant – and lost (came close to offering violence to a legal beagle after that performance.)

The school of hard knocks has taught me that the best approach to legal matters is to do most of the work yourself. You then know what you’re up against, can advise your lawyer, reduce his billable hours, and keep tabs on what he is doing. Thanks to the internet, it is pretty easy to research the law; the facts you already know.

Emerged a few months ago from a three-year battle with CRA fought all the way to the Tax Court of Canada. A tax lawyer would have cost nearly twice the amount at issue, so I did the research, writing and preparation for court myself. Result: the week before our court date the litigators for CRA caved, and I got a cheque for over $30K.

I’d be happy to pass on some hints on fighting CRA if our former-Minister-of-National-Revenue-host has an appropriate thread.

#99 Dodged-A-Bullit-in Alberta on 11.18.10 at 11:37 am

Greetings: “The womb is by far the biggest polluter of all.”
The last I read, “immaculate conception” is not a proven scientific fact. I therefore would revise above to read: ” The male p…..er is the biggest polluter of all.”

#100 oasis on 11.18.10 at 12:06 pm

it should be noted, the US 30-year bond is taking another pasting today…. along with skyrocketing commodities and falling USD.

#101 GregW, Oakville on 11.18.10 at 12:08 pm

Hi #161 Nostradamus, Thanks for the link
14:17 clip “The Medicated World We Live In, All In The Name Of Pharma Profits.”

I hope most Dr. and Dentist are informed ethical people actually trying to help others. At least we still have a choice of whom we seek treatment from, and can actually get informed (hopefully) before giving consent.

Unlike the forced mass medication with fluoride added to the drinking water supply!
I got myself informed and no longer consent.
I do not drink and cook with my city water. Why must I bath and shower in it? Wise people need to get informed and stop it!
http://www.fluoirdealert.org

India has serious health issues due to high fluoride levels in some well water.

India’s safe drinking water act, sets there drinking water safe max allowable fluoride at a level about half as much as we are told is added here. The India water act also has a rider regarding fluoride stating
“the lesser the better”.
(What is wrong with this picture?)

In India if you come to see a Doctor with one of many symptoms that may be from fluorides toxic effects like depression, back ack, head ack, lethargy, etch. (Different people can have different symptoms and from different levels for fluoride exposure).

The Medical Doctor in India can order a very low cost test of blood and urine fluoride levels to insure the person they are treating is not actually suffering from fluorides toxic effects before perscribing treatment. This make sense since many common Drugs, pain medication and anti depressant contain some fluoride. If fluoride is the underlying cause of the symptoms the treatment is to remove source of fluoride exposure. Not mask the symptoms.
(Not all peoples symptoms are caused by fluoride, but it makes sense to me to check first.)

Why in the ‘West’ and Canada can’t your Doctor have a low cost blood and urine fluoride test done for you if the symptoms could be from fluorides toxic effects???

Why is fluoride still force on everyone by medicating the drinking water supply? How much water do you drink each day, what other exposure sources do you have to fluoride? Would you take someone elses medecin as much as you like whenever you like?

All the science I’ve seen and read does no support the continuation of water fluoridation.
Just go and read the science literature for your self, Like the 2006 NRC report as a start. see 2nd link above to find it, scroll down, on the right side.

I am informed and on longer consent to fluoride being added to my water supply!
FYI, Brita (carbon) filters do not remove fluoride and boiling it only make it more concentrate.

I hope wise human beings will actually read the science
that is available and stop forced water fluoridation on other human beings.

#102 Got A Watch on 11.18.10 at 12:09 pm

DA: ““The womb is by far the biggest polluter of all.”

Why don’t you put that quote on the Christmas card for your Mom, I’m sure she’ll be impressed with your vast insight into the human condition. But anyway, in your case, I believe you were most likely hatched, in a cloning lab in the basement of the local real estate board.

#103 cellar dweller on 11.18.10 at 12:15 pm

early Thursday Morning , I wake up. Turn on the local AM Vancouver news.
Millenium Recievership trustee is still keeping Bob Rennie as the sales agent for the Owe-Limp-Ick Village ( because he’s done a bang-up job so far).
Then cut to commercial.
” Able Auction is having an Office auction this week and this week only ! Barely used ! Dont miss it.!”
R-i-i-i-g-h-t….
Its the 3rd week in a row I’ve heard a repo/bankruptcy/bailiff auction for office furniture.

where is “I’m Smart Your Stoopid”?

#104 CTO on 11.18.10 at 12:37 pm

#54 kitchener1

Thanks, that is the kind of anecdotal evidence that i search hard for on this blog.

#105 dark sad person on 11.18.10 at 12:39 pm

A Political whore–
A Taxpayers nightmare-
A zombie crawls out of the grave–
************
GM’s common shares will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker GM tomorrow, the company statement said. It will trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker GMM.

The Treasury needs to sell all of its GM shares at an average price of $43.67 to break even on its investment, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“We will only get our money back if we are very patient and if GM performs very well,” said Joe Phillippi, principal of consulting firm AutoTrends Inc. in Short Hills, New Jersey. “GM will really have to hit the ball out of the park in the next couple of years.”

The Treasury offered about 358.5 million shares in the IPO, about 95 million more shares than initially planned, and the United Auto Workers’ retiree health-care trust sold 18 million more, according to GM’s regulatory filings. The overallotment option increased by an additional 14.3 million shares offered by Treasury and 2.7 million by the UAW trust.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-11-17/gm-ipo-raises-20-billion-selling-common-preferred.html

********************

Watch China who can build autos at 1/3rd the price- drive a stake through the heart of this complete POS-
I would love to short this thing and at some point i might-but today it is running on legacy and will be propped up with your money-cuz-
Government “Face” must be saved at all costs-

#106 Hell in a Hand Basket on 11.18.10 at 12:40 pm

Dean Baker of the Washington-based Centre for Economic and Policy Research says he sees no reason why average home prices in Canada should be about 50 per cent higher than in the United States.

Noting that average incomes in Canada are lower than those in the U.S. and land values are not appreciably higher, the fundamentals don’t justify the price premium, Baker said in an interview.

“It looks me like you have some real problems,” he said.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20101118/housing-prices-101118/

#107 DiGiacomo on 11.18.10 at 12:45 pm

Here’s one for you. — Garth

—————————

meanwhile, in Minot, ND, population 30,000, 2 hours southeast of Estevan

5 bed, 2 bath house on 8 acres, 15 minutes outside of town: $188,000
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/16950-Sw-100th-St_Minot_ND_58701_M88784-67089

but it can’t happen here………

#108 Devore on 11.18.10 at 12:50 pm

#26 Got A Watch

I don’t think too many people realize we have real environmental disasters right here and right now, that are affecting your health and quality of life right here and right now, that we can solve right here and right now, for not all that much money. No need to chase phantom make-believe catastrophes with trillion dollar “solutions”.

#109 Outside the Box on 11.18.10 at 12:52 pm

#93 dark sad person “Misinformed people like you always believe gold is an inflation hedge-which is bullshit-…You tell people to sell gold because its going to crash because of bubble characteristics…”

I think gold is in a bubble too and you should sell it. So if #37 Junius, Dark Sad Person, BestPlaceOnEarth and RightAlltheTime are in the same camp, I am too.

You are outnumbered atleast 4-1 dark sad person. Those are selling odds.

#110 BrianT on 11.18.10 at 1:00 pm

George Carlin sums it all up-timeless http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acLW1vFO-2Q

#111 GregW, Oakville on 11.18.10 at 1:03 pm

Hi Garth, Is the free internet at risk? artical &1.5min vid

“It really almost makes you ask the question would it have been better if we had never invented the internet,” Rockefeller mused during the confirmation hearing of Gary Locke,…”
http://www.infowars.com/rockefeller-wants-government-to-shut-down-fox-and-msnbc/

#112 Throwstone on 11.18.10 at 1:04 pm

Boomers are retiring, and dont forget about their parents passing away.

Think their will be an excess of housing?…On the other side of my street alone, their are 9 Houses of which 7 are occupied by residents above the age of 60. Of that 7, 4 are closer to 70 and 2 are in their eighties.

Couple that with the debt loads from the Gen X and Y Student loans, Cars, Houses, Child Care, Taxes etc. etc.. (Not to mention they are fewer in number).

Even if you throw in 200,000 immigrants into the mix, I don’t think our elected officials have properly estimated the vaccum effect of 40-50% of the population leaving the workforce, drawing pensions, selling real-estate, the draw on health-care etc.

They have mentioned these issues individually, but what might their compounded effect be?

Can hardly wait to see what kind of austerity measures will be implemented. Its gonna be great watching all those fat government pensions and benefits get leaned out.

What’s your take Garth?..

HST- 17%-19% ?
CPP- 10% Gross income?
EI- 5% Gross income?
Income tax-54% of Gross income?
Fuel-$1.55 p/Liter

Residential Real Estate will NEED to be reduced by 50-60% so those still working,(if there are any jobs left) can afford all those who have stepped out of the workforce.

#113 GregW, Oakville on 11.18.10 at 1:09 pm

Hi Garthm, fyi, still flying? 5-1/2min video

Ron Paul Unleashes On TSA: “Enough Is Enough”
http://www.infowars.com/ron-paul-unleashes-on-tsa-enough-is-enough/

#114 Mike L. on 11.18.10 at 1:12 pm

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=10097377&PidKey=-167608845

Now this is a pretty good trick used by a realtor in Saskatoon.

Read the listings description – Gordie Howe lived it the house as a boy. (who knows maybe Gordie did grow up in the house – but I did think it was funny that the realtor mentions it)

#115 Junius on 11.18.10 at 1:13 pm

#93 Dark Sad Person,

Amazing diatribe of useless drivel. Even for you. The mystery of gold…..no one knows what it is. What a bunch of baloney.

You said, “You tell people to sell gold because its going to crash because of bubble characteristics-yet you say you hold 5 or 10% in your portfolio?”

I never told anyone to sell anything. You create straw man arguments and then slay them with your little man wand.

I only said that I use gold as a hedge and never let it exceed 10% of my portforlio. It is right now just about 5%.

I am only saying that it is a speculative asset that is currently valued beyond its intrinsic value. Which means, like other speculative assets, it could and most certainly will fall in the long term. That is it.

Meanwhile, I look forward to reading just one of your posts that doesn’t spend more time running down the other person then it does making logical arguments.

Oh, wait. Perhaps it is the lack of logic or insight that requires you to constantly get personnel with people. Now we are onto something!

#116 Mark on 11.18.10 at 1:14 pm

“Interesting article about Vegas-46% of the RE purchases are all cash at this point http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/nov/15/taking-bath-inside-real-estate-bubble/

But if someone takes out a mortgage against their existing house (ie: refinances), to purchase a new house, the new house would be considered an ‘all-cash’ purchase.

#117 Devil's Advocate on 11.18.10 at 1:15 pm

Why are so many of you pups and poodles getting so upset with my little slip up? In all the time I’ve been on this blog, have I ever said something stupid like that? When? Ever?

It’s not like I was talking about a woman’s vagina being a problem?!?! I mean…it could be a problem if she cuts me off, but other than that…

I’m just tellin’ it like it is, shootin’ from the hip. I have kids you know. It’s not like they’re a problem, just other people’s kids. Other people need to consider population control, not responsible people like me and my off spring.

Oh yeah, I’ve always said that these problems with real estate we’re going to happen, I’ve always agreed with Garth, always.

#118 Devore on 11.18.10 at 1:19 pm

#80 Brian1

I should have mentioned that it took me 18 years to finally realize that the real purpose of rent control increases is to persuade people to buy overpriced properties.

The real purpose of rent controls is to keep rents low. The real effect has been to lower rental stock availability and quality, decimate affordable rental stock, keep rents high overall, make rental properties more risky than they need to be, while fueling residential asset prices and killing rental yields. Which is exactly the opposite of what it’s supposed to do.

#119 Devore on 11.18.10 at 1:28 pm

#90 Doctore

…hidden eco fee taxes…

Speaking of which, I went to Home Depot or somesuch RE mecca (they all look the same to me) to buy some of those fluorescent energy efficient light bulbs, and was slapped for $1-$1.50 “eco fee” for each one. I mean, is that messed up or what? Although the tax wasn’t well hidden, yet…

#120 dave99 on 11.18.10 at 1:31 pm

#99 Dodged-A-Bullit-in Alberta

You wrote:
” The male p….. is the biggest polluter of all.”

As opposed to the female ones??

#121 Chris in Langley on 11.18.10 at 1:40 pm

How to become a Devil’s Advocate

Some might call it a freudian slip – the comment about “a woman’s womb being the biggest polluter of all.”

freudian slip- n. A verbal mistake that is thought to reveal a repressed belief, thought, or emotion.

So if you want to be a devil’s advocate like the man himself, all you need to do is repress deeply held anger and resentment. Put on a happy face. Think super positive. Lie to yourself about your feelings and then make a jackass of yourself in public forums. It also helps if you ignore the feedback people give and try to cover up your lack of emotional intelligence. This is done by striving to assert your intellectual abilities – it’s called over compensating for other areas of weakness. In males it’s called the “small dick, big mouth” syndrome.

Emotional intelligence (EI) describes the ability, capacity or skill to identify, assess, and control the emotions of one’s self.

How’s the wife?

#122 dark sad person on 11.18.10 at 1:45 pm

#110 Junius on 11.18.10 at 1:13 pm

#108 Outside the Box on 11.18.10 at 12:52 pm

********************

I notice neither one was able to discount the data i provided-
Why is that?
Nothing to your posts but opinions-

Out numbered 4-1 and yet you call a bubble–lol

#123 GregW, Oakville on 11.18.10 at 1:51 pm

Hi Garth, FYI, If your around tonight you’re all more than welcome to come I’m pritty sure.

Halton Green Screens presents ‘Life Down Stream’
Thursday, November 18th at 7pm
Encore Cinemas, 171 Speers Rd. (at Kerr)

There was once a village overlooking a river. The people who lived there were very kind.
These residents, according to parable, began noticing increasing numbers of drowning people caught in the river’s swift current. And so they went to work devising ever more elaborate technologies to resuscitate them. So preoccupied were these heroic villagers with rescue and treatment that they never thought to look upstream to see who was pushing the victims in. This film is a walk up that river. The river of human cancer.
For more information on the movie, visit http://www.livingdownstream.com

Admission is free courtesy of Smart Centre Oakville. Visit www. haltongreenscreens.ca

#124 Junius on 11.18.10 at 1:57 pm

#117 Devore,

Exactly. Dead on.

Although I will say a system like in BC where the landlord is able to reset prices to market when a tenant vacates is preferable to the Ontario model of total price control.

Either way it really is a short term, short sighted policy.

#125 Dorf on 11.18.10 at 2:17 pm

“If most people cannot see what’s coming yet, well, they’ll be forced to live it.”

– Very well stated.

Some people are members of the “cannot see” club

Some people are members of the “will not see” club

Some people are stretched so precariously, they really don’t care what comes down the pipes, they are damned either way. Mortgage poor or bankrupt, it’s the same.

A couple years ago, Suncor came to town recruiting industry specialists. They were promising excellent benefits, steady work, high wages, education and jobs for your kids, you name it. It sounded like a really good deal in spite of the high cost of housing in Fort MacMurray.

Some people took the offer, paid $500k for a trailer in Fort Mac, and went to work there with the idea that they had it made. The economy went kaputski and Suncor slammed the emergency brakes on, for all new developments.

I sometimes wonder what happened to all those people who made such a huge commitment to a large corporation, which then bailed on them after promising to stuff roses up their dark spots forever. It only lasted a couple years, if that.

How easily a person’s life can be completely overturned by believing a few people who are only out looking to grab more cash.

How easily they will feed you the words you need to hear to get you to buy in.

How easily we will buy in.

#126 dd on 11.18.10 at 2:21 pm

“Dollar to Become World’s `Weakest Currency,’ JPMorgan Says”… The dollar may fall below 75 yen next year as it becomes the world’s “weakest currency” due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary-easing program,”

So this IS debasement of the currency. The Fed may not state it but the results are proof.

#127 FlatFee495.com on 11.18.10 at 2:25 pm

You need to live somewhere.
Phoenix AZ: properties have dropped in value, foreclosures, but somehow rent went up…
same people living in their houses paying rent insted mortgages

#128 john on 11.18.10 at 2:42 pm

Why do people think that LOC’s are their money?

#129 dd on 11.18.10 at 2:45 pm

#77 Brian1

…Fiction. Every country with a mature financial system and open capital markets tries to limit volatility, but there is no state-sponsored market manipulation. That’s tin foil stuff. — Garth…

That is right. No market manipulation. Especially with with 0% interest rates printing machines working 24/7.

#130 BrianT on 11.18.10 at 2:53 pm

111Throw-Yes, the incredible increase in taxation coming down the road is going to make it rough for residential RE to hold value-the ave worker only has so many dollars. The very top end would be expceted to perform somewhat better. Re government spending-don’t hold your breath-the US is in a depression and the Wash DC is flying high and partying like it is 1999.

#131 echo on 11.18.10 at 2:54 pm

idiots… how did they not know that they overpriced them? who would spend $550,000 for a 580 square foot one bedroom that has a $350 maintenance fee?
right beside social housing?……..idiots.

#132 Junius on 11.18.10 at 2:56 pm

#121 dark sad person,

You asked,”I notice neither one was able to discount the data i provided-
Why is that?”

Your not worth the time.

#133 BrianT on 11.18.10 at 3:00 pm

This is the type of human Barack Obama answers to http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Former-car-czar-settles-with-apf-1168268616.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

#134 PTDBD on 11.18.10 at 3:04 pm

Garth, it’s becoming increasingly obvious that registration is a necessity for this Blog not to get completely disfunctional with different users taking on a poster’s ID.

A blog format with email registration and a promotion mechanism depending on likes/dislikes would be ideal. Any chance of this happening?
:-) going forward ;-)

#135 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.18.10 at 3:04 pm


#47 timbo — “Collapse Of The Entire World Economy In 24 hours”

— and —

#48 The Coming Depression — “What a loud bang you’ll hear across the land in about 90 days or less.”

Combined with the link about the missing F22 Raptor (#36 last night), Xmas and New Year’s holidays almost upon us, I guess things may be a tad warm over the next few months!

#59 gold bugger — “Once the ball gets rolling, however, ooh boy. Look out.”

Noted. See above.

#62 Outside the Box — “. . . people being fooled into bigger and bigger debts it’s not just in Canada either (look at Ireland, UK, Spain, Portual, Greece even Hong Kong).”

There’s a sucker born every minute, and with TPTB controlling sheeple (so they think) there will always be a greater fool.

It’s sheeple who are caught in the middle (boomer, X- and Yers’), overloaded by self-inflicted debts who have been caught short by the speed of the downturn.

One question remains unanswered, ‘tho — if TPTB control sheeple and the stuff of this world, who controls TPTB?

#111 Throwstone — Good post and nicely linked together. Next major shocks (almost here) are the soaring cost of eating joined with skyrocketing home heating costs, gas / oil along with the necessities of life simply exploding.

No wonder that food bank demand has also gone thru the roof. In addition, see the states — NY., Ohio, Illinois, California, then Ontario and Quebec’s fiscal crises of epic proportions as it struggles with soaring health-care costs, allmost no mfg. / industrial base to work with so limited revenue coming in.

So what will the end result be? As DA said — This too shall pass — the west is moving on in their run at the top, Chindia – Russia and a few others will step in.

#136 Devil's Advocate on 11.18.10 at 3:13 pm

#102 Got A Watch on 11.18.10 at 12:09 pm
DA: ““The womb is by far the biggest polluter of all.”
Why don’t you put that quote on the Christmas card for your Mom, I’m sure she’ll be impressed with your vast insight into the human condition. But anyway, in your case, I believe you were most likely hatched, in a cloning lab in the basement of the local real estate board.

Good one! I enjoyed a good laugh. Thank you even though at my expense. But really it’s more metaphoric than vulgar disrespect. You know this – right?

#116 Devil’s Advocate on 11.18.10 at 1:15 pm
Why are so many of you pups and poodles getting so upset with my little slip up? In all the time I’ve been on this blog, have I ever said something stupid like that? When? Ever?
It’s not like I was talking about a woman’s vagina being a problem?!?! I mean…it could be a problem if she cuts me off, but other than that…
I’m just tellin’ it like it is, shootin’ from the hip. I have kids you know. It’s not like they’re a problem, just other people’s kids. Other people need to consider population control, not responsible people like me and my off spring.
Oh yeah, I’ve always said that these problems with real estate we’re going to happen, I’ve always agreed with Garth, always.

Thanks imposter DA couldn’t have said it better myself ;-) We are ALL hypocrites. We don’t want to dump sewage in the ocean yet we continue to spew pollutants into the air from the exhaust of our cars. We want to conserve resources yet we bounce from one Walmart to Zellers plucking the best deals that don’t justify the commute. And on and on and on. We are all hypocrites and that is why we will not avert our destiny.

#120 Chris in Langley on 11.18.10 at 1:40 pm
How to become a Devil’s Advocate…

Hmmm. Nope… good hypothesis but a miss… Psychology major I’m guessing?
I don’t drive a Hummer. Why? I don’t feel the need to. I don’t drive a shinny new black BMW X-6 or M-3. Why? I don’t feel the need to.
My wife of over 30 years… I’ll be sure to ask her tonight before I kiss her goodnight.
And of our children…? I am exceedingly proud they will contribute more than they take.

#137 Future Expatriate on 11.18.10 at 3:14 pm

I have a better slogan:

“If THESE were brains, I wouldn’t be wearing this tight T-Shirt”

#138 BDG-YYC on 11.18.10 at 3:16 pm

So …
World Population 1950 . 2.5 Billion … Our Boomers Born
World Population NOW … About 7 Billionish
World Population When Boomers Departring … 9 Billion
As many people alive today as all before them in world history.

There is a virtual shitstorm headed to an ocean near you. And you worry that Vancouver might not be treating its water well enough. If a fish is pure enough for your tender pallet … if your house price is going up … health and are we doing enough to help people live longer … and above all … protecting the sanctity of the womb. We really are trivial … here in Myopia … we really are different!

D.A. … you picked up the elephant in the room and slapped it right on the table. And the reaction ? Hey … whatch out for the finish!

Garth … you wonder why you can’t get through to people ?

Hey do you think there might be a trend here? A BIG trend? Any chance it could affect the price of any “stuff” as in investment opportunity? Any chancer it could eat your lunch if you ignore it? Anything demographic here ?

Hellooooo …. Hellooooo ?

#139 lonely limey on 11.18.10 at 3:17 pm

@Junius #123

In Ontario a landlord is definitely permitted to reset the rent prices to a new level as desired when an existing tenancy has elapsed and the tenant has vacated.

#140 Devore on 11.18.10 at 3:25 pm

#123 Junius

Although I will say a system like in BC where the landlord is able to reset prices to market when a tenant vacates is preferable to the Ontario model of total price control.

Either way it really is a short term, short sighted policy.

It is better, but still less than preferable. The Vancouver “compromise” just leads to landlords neglecting their properties until they require extensive work, which justifies vacating the unit, then putting it back on market at much higher price. This is evident in the generally poor condition of rentals, outside the new condo arena.

Slapping right of first-refusal on this would simply cause them to extend the work as long as possible to discourage the tenant from waiting to return, then put back on market at even higher price to make up the longer vacancy loss.

Shortsighted policy, but sounds good in a 30 second sound clip, that is all that matters. As evidence, if any, (temporary) beneficiaries of rent controls are trotted out to sing the praises, while everyone unlucky enough to be outside gets screwed. Total price control has some very negative effects that don’t fully show up until decades later, like where you have now elderly and single people still living in their rent controlled 3-4 bedroom apartments that young families desperately need, because it’s far cheaper than renting a 1 bedroom at market rates.

#141 dark sad person on 11.18.10 at 3:35 pm

#131 Junius on 11.18.10 at 2:56 pm

#121 dark sad person,

You asked,”I notice neither one was able to discount the data i provided-
Why is that?”

Your not worth the time.

****************

Shouldn’t it be “you’re” not worth the time?

It should only take a minute or so to disprove those fact based charts-wouldn’t ya think?

#142 Chris in Langley on 11.18.10 at 3:44 pm

Typical Response DA,

Just no facts to back it up.

If my hypothosis is wrong regarding your extreme lack of emotional intelligence, then tell me how. No psych major by the way.

#143 Jake on 11.18.10 at 3:45 pm

Oil and gas will save Alberta!!!!!!

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Canadian+natural+exports+expected+plunge/3849800/story.html#comments

Not!!

#144 ElectricLettuceLover on 11.18.10 at 3:46 pm

Hey Garth

Ive been flipping RE since I was 19 yrs. old (20yrs.) and sold my last in ’08 when the States started tanking. Family and friends have been looking at me like I have 12 heads beacause Ive been renting for the last 2 yrs. expecting the worse to happen here, seeing as 80% of our exports head south.
By the beginning of this year I started 2nd guessing my decision to stay out of the market(thinking China and commodities proved me wrong) and then I found this site yesterday. Nice to know I’m not the only one thinking this way.
Just wanted to thank you for your convictions and compassion in trying to save a few fools and re-enforcing my opinion.
P.S. wondering where you advertise your speaking engagements, would be very interested in attending anything your hosting in the T.O. area.

#145 mark on 11.18.10 at 3:51 pm

“Rates look like they are going to start rising. Now is a good time to buy. Call us today and we can hook you up with a mortgage broker and get you locked in at a good rate.”

booga booga, booga booga! Read that one earlier from a Canadian agent I know.

#146 Antonio on 11.18.10 at 3:52 pm

So why is no one talking about this?

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Resale+market+slows/3822954/story.html#ixzz15D2dCRgx

#147 Timing is Everything on 11.18.10 at 3:59 pm

Garth if you think Weyburn is loopy…
You should have kept driving to Estevan an hour further down the highway.
Even more so….

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9825548&PidKey=-1176211566

Mother-in-law lives in Weyburn…She says you look sexy in your boots.

#148 Crash Callaway on 11.18.10 at 4:04 pm

What a great country this is if you’re a crook.

Millennium gets to keep screwing & scamming.
Vancouver hides their dirty underwear behind a non disclosure clause.
Vancouver citizens are stuck with the boondoggle bill without even a hint on how Millennium and Vancouver govt’s first date went.

Now imagine this….
I catch Garth in a good mood on a good day when he’s changing the oil on the Hummer.
Garth lends me a million $
I then take this hot chick named Jen who is a sales manager at a condo complex in Calgary down to Balzac where we party it up.

A month later I get a call from Garth.
He want’s to be paid back (or at least a recount of how the date with Jen went)
I smile ever so politically, and inform him the moneys gone and he’s beat.
What do you mean he asks?
Well I say,
“I made Jen sign a non disclosure agreement”
and then with the flippant attitude of a pre teen watching a video and playing monopoly at the same time I say
“okay Bye” and hang up.

Gotta love the loopholes shysters invent to save their necks.

PS– Garth the checks in the mail!

#149 prairie gal on 11.18.10 at 4:14 pm

#114, #123 and #131 Junius:

Either you hit your head, which is affecting your spelling or you are not the original junius. I’m guessing the latter.

#150 Eviee1973 on 11.18.10 at 4:16 pm

Was in one of the Dartmouth Salvation Army thrift stores today, there were a pile of brand new hats from the bankrupt Harbour Isle condominium development. They recently removed all their torn and damaged flags, banners, and signs from the property.

#151 Dorf on 11.18.10 at 4:17 pm

The local newspaper published a story today about how local real estate is predicted to stay in a holding pattern this year.

I guess if you are mortgage poor, you might as well spend your last $1.25 to hear some comforting news. No real stories made the headlines, must be a slow day.

In a related story, I predict that nobody will get a bargain deal on a used car this year.

I predict that every used car buyer will personally make sure they pay enough money for the vehicle, so that the seller doesn’t lose any money on it.

I also predict that if a buyer really wants to drive a particular car then they will overpay for it, paying above the asking price, to make sure they get that one, instead of looking at other ones.

#152 Devore on 11.18.10 at 4:20 pm

#144 Antonio

Months behind. Old news to us here.

#153 David B on 11.18.10 at 4:26 pm

Ont. electricity rates to rise 46% over 5 years
\———————————/

Yup ….. just in time for mortgage renewals all couched in a slew of other government increases. Thank goodness for all those 5-6% annual raises.

Just another day reading more good news for hard working people. But fear not your government is busy buying new fighter aircraft that do not work fueling jobs south of the border. So we know they have plenty of money and will not need to raise taxes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-01/pentagon-said-to-see-higher-f-35-costs-delays-up-to-three-years.html

#154 Timing is Everything on 11.18.10 at 4:32 pm

Ya may as well go all out and buy this .5 acre beauty in Estevan..The house was built in 1968, 960 sq ft up, and a basement….appliances included.

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9886549&PidKey=19481464

#155 BrianT on 11.18.10 at 4:33 pm

Hopefully this important Authority Figure doesn’t have to take too much time off from groping passengers http://www.universalhub.com/2010/logan-tsa-worker-charged-child-rape

#156 ElectricLettuceLover on 11.18.10 at 4:37 pm

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-warns-of-hong-kong-housing-bubble-risks-2010-11-17

#157 mk-kids on 11.18.10 at 4:37 pm

Yet another nightmare story in Vancouver.

http://news.sympatico.cbc.ca/local/bc/homeowners_out_thousands_despite_warranty/8c0fd81a

#158 Business Unusual aka the BUN on 11.18.10 at 5:05 pm

Liars Liars Everywhere!

I live right across from the Olympic Village and the newest Ericson building in Vancouver (both on the water)

I can see with my own eyes that over 50% of the units in BOTH are vacant. But it doesn’t stop the realtards and Bob Rennie’s of the world from spinning the same BS:

“80% Sold” “Phase II sold out” blah blah

These guys would have a brilliant career if they went in the professional lying game….

…Liar For Hire
http://www.businessunusual.net/weirdwebsites/alibinetwork/

#159 Midas on 11.18.10 at 5:15 pm

Interesting article on bond funds:

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/bonds-pimco-bill-gross-bond-funds/11/16/2010/id/31154

“So in summary, we have all the classic signs of a bubble in bond funds and bond fund shops.

• The retail crowd is in;
•They don’t think they can lose;
•It’s a new paradigm (bonds);
•Nobody sees it.”

#160 UrbanCowboy on 11.18.10 at 5:19 pm

Though this was kinda interesting. Shows all US debt – mortgage debt is $13.8 trillion. And we are $1 trillion now, we are not that far behind on a per capita basis:

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

#161 Devil's Advocate on 11.18.10 at 5:19 pm

#141 Chris in Langley on 11.18.10 at 3:44 pm
Typical Response DA,
Just no facts to back it up.
If my hypothosis is wrong regarding your extreme lack of emotional intelligence, then tell me how. No psych major by the way.

“Typical response”?

What is so typical of a 30 plus year marriage these days?

What is so typical of having children one can be exceedingly proud of?

In those two FACTS alone I am an overwhelming success!

#162 Mikey the Realtor on 11.18.10 at 5:26 pm

Listen up renters

you heard it from Garth’s mouth, maybe another 2 years before prices start to come down, do you want to line the pocket of your landlord for another 2 years? or do you want to own a piece of heaven? I will let you think about it, I’m always here for a second opinion.

#163 The Original Dave on 11.18.10 at 5:29 pm

#93 dark sad person “Misinformed people like you always believe gold is an inflation hedge-which is bullshit-…You tell people to sell gold because its going to crash because of bubble characteristics…”

I think gold is in a bubble too and you should sell it. So if #37 Junius, Dark Sad Person, BestPlaceOnEarth and RightAlltheTime are in the same camp, I am too.

You are outnumbered atleast 4-1 dark sad person. Those are selling odds.

———————————————

lol, nope, those are buying odds! Contrary to herd (you).

Contrarians searched for a blog like this because they understood Canadian real estate was ugly. Then there’s others who stumbled upon it thanks to angelic assistance. Just letting you know why the shrewd investors and some the people that love to follow have the same opinion about an asset price.

#164 Cashman on 11.18.10 at 5:29 pm

I am looking for a house in the Van area, I want to be like those foolish buyers who buy $800k for a fixer upper read: land value. If you know of anyone who would sell me a house like that I can be reached 1-800-i-am-bankrupt. or call me at my office: 1-800-i-work-with-mark-carney. Thank you. :-)

#165 Steven Rowlandson on 11.18.10 at 5:29 pm

Of course it is. Sure, it’s mildly amusing to the media when an American comes, gives a speech, and asks in bewilderment why Canadians pay 50% more for housing than his neighbours do. But most people here believe it’s the premium for living in a superior country, where we’ve figured out how to make real estate go up forever. And as evidence that my beliefs are mildly rational but irrelevant, they point to the simple fact house prices here have not dropped. (Except in Calgary. And southwestern Ontario. And Edmonton. But you know…)

Garth such hubris on the part of canadians needs to be rewarded by an ice age in our time. What is the value of a country and real estate that costs too much if it is under thousands of feet of snow and ice?

Steven

#166 OttawaMike on 11.18.10 at 5:38 pm

26 Got A Watch on 11.18.10 at 12:27 am

In most cases you are correct, no untreated sewage should enter water ways especially in the Great Lakes basin.
Primary settlement treatment can remove up to 80% of the solids if the process is tweaked properly. You still must look at the receiving body to determine the cost – return analysis before making a blanket statement that every last drop must be treated fully.
Of course no politician will ever say this publicly because it would be career death.

Calgary and some smaller cities provide tertiary treatment where the final effluent is brought to drinking water quality but those places have pristine receiving bodies of water with trout in them.
The latest edict here in Ontario is to lose the chlorine in effluent of all sewage plants and replace it with a non chlorine substitute. Add those 100’s/millions$ to everybody’s tax base or sewer charge. The science is not even clear on why we’re doing it everywhere.

I think the larger issue here is how much service do you want your municipality to provide?

I counted 4 garbage trucks on my street today:green bin, yard waste, blue box and regular garbage.
My streets are salted dry at the slightest sign of snow, the police are on a constant expansion program because… I don’t know, crime’s steadily decreasing. And so on.

Everybody has their sacred service entitlements and does not want to lose them but Cadillac service is not going to solve the funding crisis for municipalities or stop the property taxes from continuing to rise above inflation.

Krazzy Mayor Ford is right, the gravy train needs to stop but the taxpayer has to be ready to do with less.

#167 jess on 11.18.10 at 5:41 pm

a hostage situation

General Electric Co. has made an unusual offer to the state: Give us $25 million in tax credits, and we won’t cut any more than 150 positions at our aircraft engine plant in Lynn.

The conglomerate has already cut the Lynn plant’s workforce by 600 jobs and could cut 150 more. But General Electric said that if it receives the state aid to help fund a $75 million retooling of the plant, it would maintain the remaining 3,000 jobs for six years.
Typically the state grants tax breaks to companies that create — not cut — jobs, making the General Electric request unusual. State officials said they cannot recall another case of a company asking for tax subsidies while warning it will continue to reduce employment.

“We’re now having to pay companies not to fire people,’’ said Deirdre Cummings, legislative director of the Massachusetts Public Interest Research Group, a consumer group. “This is throwing economic development subsidies on its head.”

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2010/11/18/ge_says_tax_credit_would_limit_lynn_layoffs/

#168 Devil's Advocate on 11.18.10 at 5:41 pm

#137 BDG-YYC on 11.18.10 at 3:16 pm

Ah… finally someone who gets it! :-)

#169 Brian1 on 11.18.10 at 5:55 pm

Devore; I think you are so wrong. The old rent control I would agree with you but this raising rent every year has succeeded in encouraging newcomers to buy overpriced properties. The proof is what this blog is all about, greater fools. The success rate is staggering. (This is in Ontario by the way.)

#170 Mikey the Realtor on 11.18.10 at 5:56 pm

Hey DA,

I hear you about fighting off the poodles, some of them are quite nasty and so you may need a bigger stick, as far as the womb thing, I have no comment as I am a professional agent and don’t discuss such matters.

One thing though, there will be a lot of angry renters on here in the coming months as they will notice that RE will at bare minimum stick and not go down. I’m sure that Garth will have to get a stick even bigger then yours to fight them off. I will be watching the show from afar.

#171 Brian1 on 11.18.10 at 5:57 pm

I think I have the proper analogy of our long wait to see prices fall. It is like watching a neglected Hummer rusting in the driveway.

#172 Chris in Langley on 11.18.10 at 6:08 pm

Nice try DA,

More sidestepping.
A 30 year marriage and being proud of one’s children has nothing to do with your lack of emotional intelligence. The hypothosis, as you call it, had nothing to do with either of those factors.

Are you chicken?

#173 oasis on 11.18.10 at 6:15 pm

deflation? where?

sugar, highest since 1980
cocoa, highest since 1980
coffee, highest since 1997
cotton, highest in history
live cattle, highest since .. at least 1973
pork bellies, highest since .. at least 1973
soybeans, wheat, corn, oats, through the roof
gold, highest in history
silver, highest since 1980
platinum, palladium, copper, … all near historic highs

so.. what deflation..

#174 The Apocalyptic One formerly Old is Gold on 11.18.10 at 6:21 pm

NO RESCUE – NO KIDDING!WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A bill to extend federally-funded benefits for long-term jobless workers failed to pass in the House of Representatives Thursday. To pass the House, the bill needed to capture two-thirds of the votes — 258 lawmakers voted in favor of the extension, while 154 voting against it. The bill would have extended special federal unemployment insurance benefits through February, calling for $12.5 billion in emergency spending. Without an extension, long-term jobless workers will start losing benefits in coming weeks, with about two million cut off by the end of the year.

#175 Sail1 on 11.18.10 at 6:22 pm

#7 T.O. Bubble Boy

just another set of apartments that could have been built with a lot less money.

You are loosing perspective of why the dwellings were built. Was there no value to the games.

#176 Gary Anderson on 11.18.10 at 6:26 pm

Regarding Garth’s assertion that there is no market manipulation, I would disagree. I think the main reason that the banks were bailed out in the US was to pump stocks and bonds and speculate in oil.

#177 Sail1 on 11.18.10 at 6:27 pm

#25 VF

WHEN???????????????????????????? Please advise!

Garth has retired his crystal ball. Try your local palm reader.

#178 dark sad person on 11.18.10 at 6:30 pm

Fresh outta the gate-hard right and down-

F had a chance to dump this dog today (at a loss) but better a smaller then a bigger loss-but-
The market participating/speculating Canadian government is holding/speculating a of higher future price-

I know it’s just so much tinfoil to mention here-even with solid evidence of a well entrenched government PPT and even with government controlled/sponsored hedge funds gunning the market up-in order to crutch any bearishness of something less then a rocket launch from this dog-it still fizzled-lol

Good call F-you rock!

*************

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=gm&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=2&maval=21&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=10&sid=5310637&style=320&time=1&freq=9&nosettings=1&rand=8700&mocktick=1&rand=2313

#179 $froma$ia on 11.18.10 at 6:31 pm

“But most people here believe it’s the premium for living in a superior country…”

What a joke!!! In Canada we have crashing f-18s in the States they have crashing f22 raptors.

Whos got bigger kahoonas?

I think we need to watch “Red Dawn” over again!

$

#180 Vancouver_Bear on 11.18.10 at 6:34 pm

#4 cheri on 11.17.10 at 11:10 pm

Nelson, BC….what planet is that on? Nobody in their right mind would want to live there.

#181 Vancouver_Bear on 11.18.10 at 6:38 pm

#4 cheri on 11.17.10 at 11:10 pm

Just looked up where it is located…..visit may be….. to spend one night in the hotel and leave next day. Move there? Not in this lifetime.

#182 Timing is Everything on 11.18.10 at 6:51 pm

Agree with you. But I believe this was from the Globe & Mail. Here. — Garth

Here is the quote…notice the …acting as a financial advisor…’ remark. Are you taking acting lessons too? Where do find the time?

“We have allowed armies of hormonal young couples without money to buy homes,” said Garth Turner, a former MP who now makes his living writing books, acting as a financial advisor and giving scary speeches about a coming disaster he likes to call “Houseageddon.” From Thursday’s Globe and Mail

Hell, you should see me dance. — Garth

#183 Brian1 on 11.18.10 at 7:10 pm

Herb#98; Is there no way to judge a lawyer’s success rate? (If we could then that may make lawyers settle out of court more). If we could evaluate them then we could do better, but then half of them would be fired. Are we not allowed to know how many actually win and lose their cases? Are they better than a paralegal? If they lost to a paralegal then I could advertise about their loss. Who was your lawyer? What is their name? Why can’t I know?

#184 bigrider on 11.18.10 at 7:25 pm

The Ultimate Sacrifice.

Ok. Going to walk into Brad Lambs office tommorrow. Going to buy one of his hot property’s/condos.

Believe me ,that action alone should single handidly tank the RE market and satisfy us all.

#185 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.18.10 at 7:30 pm


#166 jess — See link on China’s new jet. They do not need Europe or the US anymore.

#172 oasis — Stagflation. Easier to say than in- or deflation!

#179 Vancouver_Bear — Visited the Kootenays last year. Gorgeous area, way more peaceful than Vancouver. Like taxes, avoid grizzlies. Not too kind to humans.
*
US — Lacks Furniture closing 36 or more stores and teen retailer Hot Topic Inc. is cutting staff and closing 40 to 50 stores by early next year. US govt. — Taxes might have to average 50% to service the interest on the national debt. Note that is not the debt itself, just the interest.

Funny — seems Aristotle reincarnated as Isaac Newton.

Charts and Graphs “It’s one thing to understand that the housing bubble is over and times are tough. It’s something else entirely to see it in BRIGHT LIVING COLOR on a chart.” Plus — Chart Two Not as pretty as the first, but still pretty good.

The only reason for a new carbon tax. GW has nothing to do with it.

FDR and Obama? “May have been as much Democratic revenge on the bankers who “let them down” last election as preserving Obama’s imperial presidency.” wrh.com. HR 3808 went down. Most Democrats voted to uphold Obama’s veto. Nearly all Republicans voted to override Obama’s veto.

TSA Not going very well. “I am getting emails wondering if the US Government isn’t using this TSA groping thing to trigger an uprising of the American people to justify a gun grab or martial law. If true, I wonder how TSA workers feel about being set up as target practice for the next staged phony terror attack. Grateful not to have to worry about an old age riddled with cancer from those machines, I guess.” wrh.com.

Remember The Crotch Bomber last Christmas Day? It was a staged event to bring TSA’s scanners in.

Af’stan The USSR barely lasted seven years there and walked away with their tails between their legs.

5:49 clip “You can’t fix stupid!” — Ron White

If the US is lashing out and flailing at China, it has become like a beaten and bloodies boxer.

Pix and update on China’s new jet. They don’t need Boeing or Airbus now.

Bill S-510 “The FBI said it’s actively watching Nebraska farmland and farm operations. Are they planning to have Osama Bin aZombie terrorize us into accepting S 510?”

Eurozone debt crisis 2.0. Do we need another crisis here, or is the present one enough?!

#186 45north on 11.18.10 at 7:44 pm

They listened to me incredulously, asked no questions, and tucked into a social meal as my tail iights vanished into the swirling snow and flat, menacing, frozen Saskatchewan emptiness.

sounds like a lonely night

PTDBD: right we have to have a registration system

#187 Bill Grable on 11.18.10 at 7:47 pm

Will you guys * and you know who are – stop sniping at each other and talk about RE, please?
Having to wade through some of this grade school diaspora is really off topic.
Now back to = “Milly Water” Volume 3.

#188 Devil's Advocate on 11.18.10 at 7:59 pm

#171 Chris in Langley on 11.18.10 at 6:08 pm
Nice try DA,
More sidestepping.
A 30 year marriage and being proud of one’s children has nothing to do with your lack of emotional intelligence. The hypothosis, as you call it, had nothing to do with either of those factors.
Are you chicken?

Short of disclosing my identity I am not sure what you are after. Are you sure you are not asking me to prove some capacity of “social” intelligence as opposed to “emotional” intelligence? Because I truly do believe I have a good cognitive understanding of my own emotional self but I admittedly do have great difficulty relating to the pups and poodles.

Or is it emotional immaturity you are accusing me of? In which case you must first not confuse me with the imposter DA as to do so would seriously flaw the basis of much of your argument. Secondly, the anonymity of these blogs does provide the indulgence of a great deal of latitude without personal repercussion.

I am only too happy to rise to the challenge Chris. Actually I will be in your area in the not too distant future… care to discuss it over a friendly coffee?

#189 Devil's Advocate on 11.18.10 at 8:34 pm

#186 Bill Grable on 11.18.10 at 7:47 pm
Will you guys * and you know who are – stop sniping at each other and talk about RE, please?
Having to wade through some of this grade school diaspora is really off topic.
Now back to = “Milly Water” Volume 3.

Yes… please! And may I extend my appologies for that digression. It seems I can not offer opinion, all-be-it from the dark side, of real estate (REALTOR) without the pups and poodles nit picking any little snippet they can of my comment and more often than not it is off topic.

Hey I get it you hate REALTORS. No problem. but rather than force me into defending myself and my vocation why not use me as the valuable and insightful resource I can be to that “dark side”. You might learn a thing or two. But you must have an open mind.

Really lets keep it on topic otherwise we (both you and I) are just polluting these blogs more than the City of Victoria the Strait of Georgia with it’s raw sewage discharge.

#190 An Cat Dubh on 11.18.10 at 8:35 pm

The BCREA seems on the Olympic village. Like Elmer Fudd when he said “Be vewy, vewy, quiet”.

#191 DroppingBy on 11.18.10 at 8:55 pm

I was wondering if that “row housing” behind the pretty lady in the picture above had any symbolism attached to it…..

It was photographed at a Saskatchewan Roughriders game. — Garth

#192 TS on 11.18.10 at 9:04 pm

#166 jess — See link on China’s new jet. They do not need Europe or the US anymore.

Or is it the U.S. does not need China anymore?

#193 morfeus44 on 11.18.10 at 9:10 pm

was at a conference yesterday and guest speaker was Dr. David Suzuki. Couldn’t help making comparisons to our own property prophet, GT.

The room was full of senior execs and the good doctor was prophesizing about the constant need for growth and more revenues which is killing the planet.

Guys in front of me were laughing and glancing at the well dressed gentleman they surrounded, no doubt the head cheese.

I felt like I was one of the few people in the room that “got it” much like those of us that frequent this great site.

Or maybe it was just the beard comparison that reminded me…

#194 Debt's Dark Embrace on 11.18.10 at 9:11 pm

#175 Gary Anderson on 11.18.10 at 6:26 pm
………………………………………………………………………
And low interest rates and bond yields gooses the stock markets
………………………………………………………………………
Regarding Garth’s assertion that there is no market manipulation, I would disagree. I think the main reason that the banks were bailed out in the US was to pump stocks and bonds and speculate in oil.

#195 a prairie dawg on 11.18.10 at 9:21 pm

It’s ironic that realtors show up here trying to be the knowledgeable voice of reason.

If business was any good right now, they would be busy showing houses and selling houses. They wouldn’t be hanging around here trying to steer the masses back to the trough.

The fact that they keep showing up here to pump sunshine means they have too much time on their hands, and they’re scared. Business isn’t as good as it used to be. The suckers aren’t as plentiful.

You folks better update the old resume. There will be many of you looking for work in the not too distant future.

The good news is that McDonalds and Tim Hortons are both hiring. Make mine a double double. ;)

Keep up the good fight Garth. It seems to be working. ;)

#196 Marty on 11.18.10 at 9:30 pm

For the record, we’re breaking records on silver sales here in Canada.

There’s also a big movement now going viral “Buy Silver Crash JP Morgan” which is attempting to get the people to take some action to show the banksters who are responsible for this housing mess that they are not invincible and can be held accountable for fraud in more than one way.

#197 Herb on 11.18.10 at 9:46 pm

Brian1 @ #182,

the legal profession is a closed shop, except when a lawyer is unlucky enough to be disciplined by the Bar Association and it hits the papers. There is no score card on individual lawyers except happy clients or reputation among his peers.

The lawyer who screwed up my divorce (on two counts, as I discovered in subsequent court appearances) must have learned from my fate because he became a Superior Court justice 15 years later and subsequently was promoted to the Ontario Appeals Court, where he still sits. So you will understand my observing the old Army motto “No names, no packdrill.”

But I wish I had sued him – had I had the money to pay a lawyer prepared to sue another lawyer, or known what I know to-day.

#198 Devore on 11.18.10 at 9:57 pm

#168 Brian1

Devore; I think you are so wrong. The old rent control I would agree with you but this raising rent every year has succeeded in encouraging newcomers to buy overpriced properties. The proof is what this blog is all about, greater fools. The success rate is staggering. (This is in Ontario by the way.)

We can argue about this forever, but I think you have the causality reversed.

Is it possible rents have gone up so much in recent years because of declining inventory (less supply, higher price), as well as availability of much more attractive and easier profits (capital gains) elsewhere? It is no accident condos were unheard of in the 70s and into early 80s, when rent controls were frustrating real estate developers, who turned to the much more lucrative developments they could unload onto third parties and wash their hands of it.

Rising real estate prices are not the result of “loose rent controls” driving people to own instead of rent, it’s the result of loose credit driving people to bid up prices.

Although lifting rent controls now would throw the market into some disarray, and almost certainly result in higher rents across the board (it could be introduced gradually), but eventually it would make this business more attractive and bring additional units to the market, ideally with sufficient inventory across all market segments, bringing rents down over time.

You have to ask the question, why is residential income real estate so unattractive to developers today, and what can you do about it? I don’t think the answer is rent controls.

At the end of the day, when you dictate to people how much they can charge for their product or service, they will simply go away and do business somewhere else. Whether you call it rent stability, rent controls, price controls, it’s the same thing, and it is not good for the market, although it seems to work in the short term. In the long term it distorts the market and results in supply shortages.

#199 Dodged-A-Bullit-in Alberta on 11.18.10 at 10:02 pm

Greetings: Fear not, we still have a lot of company down under!!!\

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10688677

#200 Utopia on 11.18.10 at 10:21 pm

To #64 Leith on 11.18.10

Hi Leith. I just want to ask you what “spruiking” means. It must be an Oz term. How do you pronounce it? I have never heard anyone in Canada use it.

Spoken phoenetically, “Sprooking” is my best guess at the pronunciation.

#201 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.18.10 at 10:24 pm

@ #174 Sail1:

Ask Athens or Torino if they got their money’s worth when they hosted the games… Athens was on fire w/ riots just a few years later, and Torino is long forgotten.

Just because the Olympics were a big 2-week party, doesn’t mean that the governments and other investors that paid for everything can’t have some regrets over the excessive costs.

#202 Devil's Advocate on 11.18.10 at 10:35 pm

#194 a prairie dawg

prairie gal? What ever… clearly you are making an effort to antagonize me. I get it… no problem… but who ever said we (REALTORS) were the voice of reason? We offer our opinion – take it or leave it. We all have our opinions. You are entitled to yours and I am entitled to mine.

Hey I don’t come here to argue but if push comes to shove and someone deliberately tries to push my buttons offering no reasonable alternative but only makes unsubstantiated disparaging remarks of me or the likes of me I will most certainly rally to defence.

I get it you don’t want me here. You would rather I leave and not come back. Is that as open minded and democratic as you can be and what does it say of you? And yet you criticise me? Hmmm…

#203 Utopia on 11.18.10 at 10:46 pm

#75 Nancy on 11.18.10 at 8:56 am

Canadians have a new disease called Regional Delusion Syndrome……It’s all delusion. Everybody can’t want to live everywhere.

Besides, everyone hates moving.
———————————————————-

Funny stuff Nancy. Good point too. We all need to pump up the “It’s different here” music to make ouselves feel better about where we live (as opposed to everyone elses cave). Anbd in some respects we are all right.

Unless we live in North Vancouver of course, epicenter of one of the biggest real estate crashes of all (yet to come). God, I feel bad for those suckers.

Weyburne looks juicy by comparison.

#204 RickOShea on 11.18.10 at 11:06 pm

“Interesting article about Vegas-46% of the RE purchases are all cash

This reminds me of the story my co-worker told me back in the beginning of 2009 when the real estate fiasco was in full bloom in the USA…

He made a winter trip to ‘Vegas and was on a tour of the city… the guide was telling him very matter-of-fact ly that while most real estate development had stopped cold, the projects that were proceeding were the ones being built to launder money.

Made sense to me.

#205 Utopia on 11.18.10 at 11:26 pm

#97 sk76driver on 11.18.10

“Latest contest….

1st prize: ALL EXPENSE PAID TRIP TO WEYBURN!!!!!

2nd prize: 2 TRIPS TO WEYBURN!!!!

3rd prize: 3 TRIPS TO WEYBURN!!!!

WANT to move to Weyburn….that is some funny shit right there…..”

———————————————————-

Oh Lord!! I laughed so hard I almost puked. Then I did.

#206 Utopia on 11.19.10 at 12:33 am

#116 Devil’s Advocate wrote:

“Why are so many of you pups and poodles getting so upset with my little slip up? In all the time I’ve been on this blog, have I ever said something stupid like that?…
I’m just tellin’ it like it is, shootin’ from the hip. I have kids you know…. Other people need to consider population control, not responsible people like me and my off spring”.
———————————————————

Dear Devil, I don’t at all disagree that population is a growing problem. Out of control growth is what will doom all of us in the end.

There are growing resource deficits everywhere. Every sector is under pressure while the population swells out of control. Even wealth cannot insulate anyone from this kind of hazard. We are all in this together.

What I disgreed with though was your imagery and assertion of a womb being a device that generates pollution because it assigns blame for humanities problems on women and on the female biological process itself.

Are we now blaming women for destroying the planet, our future and the future of all our children?

That is ridiculous.

Now let me make the following candid remarks. You may agree or disagree but they are each correct in their own standing.

1) Medical advances have extended lifespans.
2) Treatments available have reduced normal mortality.
3) There are too many people and the problem is growing.
4) Disease control has been a success.
5) Disease control has resulted in greater than normal life expectancy.
6) Medical intervention is distorting the normal pattern of mortality figures and has led to a ballooning population.
7) The balance between life and death is distorted through the interventions of modern medical practices.
8) Where population problems cannot be solved at the birth end of the cycle they must then be resolved at the death end of the process.
9) There are not enough resources for the growing number of humans on the planet to share equitably.
10) There will therefore be shortages and then wars to bring balance back and reintroduce equity.
11) We will all be poorer with the new equity.

This is not an acceptable solution to the problem. Instead, A pandemic that reduces global population numbers is almost inevitable. Our own governments may well play a role in this event and I will suggest to you that such an event will be a deliberate and organized.

Health care is clearly a contributor to the global population problem and as we collectively cannot master birth control it now rests on the shoulders of others to manage “death control”. You won’t like that but it is my firm belief that disease and pandemic are being seriously viewed as reasonable solutions to bringing global populations back into balance.

So go get your flu shots…….while there is still time.

#207 Utopia on 11.19.10 at 1:22 am

#180 Vancouver_Bear wrote:

“Nelson, BC….what planet is that on? Nobody in their right mind would want to live there”.
———————————————————-

WTF? Nelson is beautiful. I love Nelson. A Kootenay paradise with great fishing, plenty of timber for the home-fires, weirdo hippies that you have to love, arts and culture and the most famous of all BC Buds (of which I do not personally partake) and a wild setting of mountains, rivers, creeks and sweet hot Kootenay babes.

So what’s not to like about the fishing?

#208 BrianT on 11.19.10 at 8:58 am

#206Utopia-re extended lifespans, that is a popular misconception. Global life expectancy, after rising steadily for over a hundred yrs, peaked in 1998 and has steadily decreased since (now at 1994 levels).

#209 a prairie dog on 11.19.10 at 10:27 am

@202 DA

Sorry, you’ve assumed far too much.

I’m not a woman, and I also wasn’t speaking to you directly in my post. Just realtors in general.

If people on this blog wanted input from realtors they’d probably visit CREA’s website instead, so drop the Captain Real Estate persona and stop trolling here.

#210 Utopia on 11.19.10 at 11:01 am

Brian, I don’t need to argue the math with you.

Population growth is not sustainable. There is no misconception at all. We are on track for an epic crash and should not be surprised when it comes.

The entire model for life-extending medical interventions and procedures has effectively brought us to the brink. We are a success beyond comprehension. As a species, too smart. As a society, too dumb to recognize the inherant risks in keeping everyone going to the grans old age of 100 plus.

In short, we live too long. Of course, there is no cure for this kind of problem. None that is acceptable anyway. We cannot even discuss it. It should be clear that depopulation will come about as a result of a deliberately introduced illness, disease or pathogen and one that cannot be easily traced back to it’s source.

There will be nobody to blame directly and the argument against the current health model will just cease to exist. Unfortunately, once set in motion the results of pandemic are not manageable and nobody is really safe. So the sword will cut across all ages and demographics and equalize everyone.

(and yes this will lower real estate values. This comment is for those of you who are going to tell me to shut up because this is an R/E blog)

#211 GregW, Oakville on 11.19.10 at 3:10 pm

Hi #185 Nostradamus, thanks for the info on Bill S 510 and our food supply. Any connection with ‘codex’?

Hi Sue, thanks for the links to Doctor Mercol’s Youtube info stuff. Still thinking of getting the shot? Fallow the money first. Only had time to see the first 2 parts of this so far.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmPZ66EAZeg

#212 Screwed in BC on 11.19.10 at 5:52 pm

The Best Place on Earth is looking more like The Greatest Circus on Earth. Guess who are the clowns?