Woof

Blog dogs make their mark in Toronto

People in an audience of about 1,000 last night wave to the blog, thankful they don’t live in delusional Vancouver.

It pays to be a contrarian in a world where so many know so little. I was reminded of that yesterday afternoon when a Toronto Star reporter called me on the way to the Blog Dog Summit.

‘New house prices have gone up,’ he said, as if it mattered. ‘What do you think?” I think you should write a story about housing starts going down 25% instead of prices rising 0.2%, I said. The thing to watch, I added, is sales, not prices. Builders are scampering off the sinking ship, which should tell you all you need to know about what comes next.

‘So why are the prices of resale houses not falling if your theories are right?’ he continued. Because, I said (making a note to send him a box of crayons) greedy vendors want bubble prices and are withdrawing listings since your newspaper keeps telling them the market is fine. You’ve blown so much sunshine up the city’s rear end that homeowners think everything will be back to normal in the spring. But, sadly, that’s when it starts.

BTW, I told you yesterday about a BMO study saying Canadian housing is overvalued by 11% – which means real estate in Toronto and Vancouver likely has 20% to fall. In urban areas where thousands of young couples have bought with 5% or less down, this is a disaster. Their negative equity will probably cause many forced sales, dragging prices down further. Particularly hard hit will be the condo market, vastly overbuilt and already suffering a sales seizure and faltering values. Even a 10% decline would shave $40,000 off the average family’s equity – when the average family is already coping with a record amount of debt.

The Star’s headline on that story, writ in 72-point type: “No bubble brewing”.

See what I mean? It’s hopeless.

So I wasn’t too surprised at the hotel to be surrounded by some of the thousand people who showed up, complaining when they repeat words from this blog, they get shut down. By friends, co-workers, relatives and even spouses. ‘Nobody believes you,’ is a common way of putting it. And I certainly take no offence. If I read the Toronto Star, Vancouver Sun, Calgary Herald or Winnipeg Free Press, I wouldn’t believe me, either.

As our little wanker friend from Edmonton showed us yesterday, there’s a visceral hatred out there of guys like me. Like a skunk at a wedding, I have the potential to screw things up badly, or at least making the screwing go badly. The real estate industry, the media that feeds off it and the political class with a vested interest in seeing you in constant debt, scorn this kind of information. In their world, you are told that ‘prudent leverage’ is a good thing, real estate never goes down for long, renters are deviants and young couples without houses are failures.

But the truth will out. It did last night in Toronto. It’s been a long time since anyone held a financial event at which nothing was sold. Where all voices were heard. And so many came.

Guess how many reporters were there to cover it?

But that doesn’t matter. The good news: your knowledge is power. If you know prices will be lower one year from now, then wait to buy and rush to sell. If you understand how rattled vendors will be by April, then you’ll know how to extract the best possible deal, using conditions creatively. If you realize what aging Boomers, a lousy economy, bubbly markets, weenie governments and an ocean of debt will do to various assets, embrace some and dump others. Not hard to figure out which.

Most people have no idea what’s coming. Nor should they. Unless they sniff us out.

And what fun would that be?

Photo taken prior to seminar by webmaster William Stratas.

165 comments ↓

#1 hobbygirl on 11.10.10 at 12:03 am

Pretty happy group for a bunch of so-called doomsdayers!

I saw an interesting article in the Financial Post about China quietly making their Redback a threat to the Greenback. I would love to hear theories on how that would play out!
http://www.financialpost.com/news/Redback+rival+dollar/3803096/story.html

#2 Leanne on 11.10.10 at 12:12 am

Ironically, at the seminar tonight I was sitting near a realtor who spent most of the evening trying to convince me and another girl that now is a good time to buy. Duh.

#3 mel on 11.10.10 at 12:19 am

Let them all pretend everything is okay. Most of my ‘ friends’ dumped me into the eternal ‘house’ fire long time ago. I am patient! Everything has it’s time of glory. Until you realize one day the game is up. When that day arrives, the door will not be large enough to accomodate all of them.

I guess none of them read, or care about Ireland, Spain, U.S…. housing collapse. They must not, otherwise, what would that tell you about a human character.

#4 WISE GUY on 11.10.10 at 12:35 am

It was awesome to see and hear you today at the “Money Grab” seminar today!

These were the words I heard from three guys prior to your talk as I walked in. They said, nobody seems to realize that this is just a big money grab and he will be selling his financial services…etc…etc.

They were wrong! You offered financial help if people wanted it and that was it!

A few things to note:

Not sure if the picture was meant to look like Barack Obama, but when you showed the picture and stated, “Well, we all know who this is”. I actually thought it was Obama for a second..haha..maybe it was just the angle!

Also, I did not know that you can simply transfer $5000 of equities into your TFSA. I thought that it had to be a clear cash deposit? Can you also do the same into your RRSP account?

#5 Patz on 11.10.10 at 12:35 am

Gerry #58 (yesterday).
“Great blog, but who is the “orange guy” who keeps getting mentioned in this blog? This week folks are “stuffing billions in the orange guys’ inadequate shorts”.

Gerry, Garth pledged us to secrecy some while ago re: the “orange guy.” However I’m gonna spill it just because it’s unfair to new blog readers not to know.

The “orange guy” is a well known Canadian investor who apparently suffers from hypercarotenemia thus giving his skin an eerie orangeish glow. He has come to be known as the orange guy. His “shorts” are various calls he’s made to the down side in such items as wheat, gold, Syncrude and others but you’ll note there is a prototypical Canadian bent to these items. In effect he’s shorting Canada—i.e. a very unpatriotic guy.

Nonetheless many—including some on this blog—have been taken in by him. Make sure you don’t get taken in :)

#6 WISE GUY on 11.10.10 at 12:36 am

I failed to note…that the picture that I thought was OBAMA, was actually Mark Carney!

#7 Aussie Roy on 11.10.10 at 12:37 am

#2 Leanne
I was sitting near a realtor who spent most of the evening trying to convince me and another girl that now is a good time to buy.

They sell houses, its always a good time to buy, for them.

Aussie Update
Debt, higher rates hit mortgage applications
http://www.smh.com.au/business/debt-higher-rates-hit-mortgage-applications-20101110-17mmt.html
BUT
Mortgage brokers swamped
http://www.theage.com.au/business/mortgage-brokers-swamped-20101109-17m1h.html

#8 $froma$ia on 11.10.10 at 12:38 am

Out of a city of how many million and you get a thousand to show?

Most people don’t have a clue whats going on!

Garth, I hope you can fill sports centres soon but by then it will be too late.

$

Attendance was offered only to those who read this blog. — Garth

#9 GoingGagaforGarth on 11.10.10 at 12:47 am

I think half the people in that room were realtors! I ended up sitting next to one as well. Lol. It was nice to see you tonight Garth, definitely worth waiting around since 4! Hope you do it again!

#10 rentin on 11.10.10 at 12:49 am

#7 They sell houses, its always a good time to buy, for them.

Realtors need both buyers and sellers to make any money.

You can always tell which way the market is moving. Right now, they could care less for a listing, unless at a hot price point; what they need are buyers.

#11 HouseBuster on 11.10.10 at 12:50 am

Any groupies?

#12 TheBestPlaceonEarth on 11.10.10 at 12:50 am

20% is no big deal. Let’s take a scenario. 10 years ago you buy a Duplex for $250K which is now worth 900k. A 20% haircut means it’s now worth 720k. NO BIG DEAL. Because in 5 more years it’s worth 1.2 million. Nothing goes straight up and nothing goes straight down. The Chinese are getting anxious about the US dollar. Guess where billions of dollars are going to be funneled to? That’s right Vancouver. So reiterate, 20% no big deal as the trend is intact. Everyone wants to live here. The only people who don’t have a chip on their shoulder cause they can’t afford to. Folks if you can’t handle a 20% haircut then please do not invest in the stock market

#13 TheBestPlaceonEarth on 11.10.10 at 12:59 am

A moment of silence for the renters and those who held off buying Vancouver cause they thought it was overpriced and had to come down. The fact is, in the previous example I gave off the 900k duplex being knocked dow to 720k most Canadians still cannot afford this price. Not only the price but IF there would be a temporary correction you can bet interest rates would be higher as well. Unfortunatley for the renter and Canadian with his/her 20 grand in hand from their parents they are now left on the sidelines. It’s tought seeing the Carrera’s M5’s Bentleys and Rolls pass you buy heading to their gold fortresses while the Renter and Canadian nervously worries about the future praying for Armageddon so that one day they too can own a piece of Heaven – Vancouver the most Blessed Place on Earth

#14 john on 11.10.10 at 1:08 am

Hey Garth,

Do you think by 2013 prices of a home in Toronto will be 20% lower than that same home in 2007?

#15 garthfan on 11.10.10 at 1:11 am

Don’t worry so much about Obama sightings.

However, if Sarah Palin suddenly announces she is fully qualified to lead Canada because she lives right next door, RUN FOR THE NEAREST EXIT.

I understand that’s the 7th sign.

#16 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 11.10.10 at 1:20 am

Yes, this is a serious real estate blog, but when November 11th comes around it is:

TIME FOR REMEMBRANCE

“…AND NOW WE LIE IN FLANDERS FIELDS.”
WAR POETRY ON REMEMBRANCE DAY

Remembrance Day observes the Armistice signed on the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of 1918, that ended WORLD WAR ONE, “the war to end all wars”.

Poetry was effective in describing to the public the battles in Flanders, the Somme, Vimy,Verdun that left millions of soldiers killed, wounded, missing on all sides. Some poetic examples from the “Great War” years.

Canadian army officer and doctor Lt. Col. John McCrae penned his immortal poem in May 1915 days after the historic German gas attack on Canadian trenches during Second Battle of Ypres, Belgium.

IN FLANDERS FIELDS

In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row
That mark our place, and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe.
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch, be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

Col. McCrae died of pneumonia in a French hospital in 1918.

Britain’s Rupert Brooke wrote a classic, “The Soldier”. A few lines:

THE SOLDIER

If I should die, think only this of me:
That there’s some corner of a foreign field
That is forever England…
…In hearts at peace, under an English heaven.

Rupert Brooke died in the war and is buried in Greece.

Wilfred Owen saw action in the trenches. His epic Dulce et decorum est describes a gas attack in the trenches:

DULCE ET DECORUM EST
(It is sweet and fitting to die for one’s country).

Bent double, like old beggers under sacks,
Knock-kneed coughing…As under a green sea, I saw him drowning…My friend, you would not tell with such high zest…To children ardent for some desperate glory…The old lie. Dulce et decorum est. Pro patria mori.

Poet Wildfred Owen was killed in action, a week before the Armistice.

Siegfried Sassoon, another English poet, gallant in battle, was considered for the Victoria Cross, but received a lesser medal. He went from hero to villain in criticising Britain’s war role.

HOW TO DIE

Dark clouds are smouldering into red
While down the craters morning burns.
The dying soldier shifts his head
To watch the glory that returns…

Siegfried Sassoon survived the war.

Laurence Binyon’s For the Fallen was written in September 1914 after the Battle of the Marne in France that ushered in “trench warfare”. Its fourth emotive stanza is carved on war memorials. The first stanza; then, the fourth:

FOR THE FALLEN

With proud thanksgiving, a mother for her children,
England mourns for her dead across the sea.
Flesh of her flesh they were, spirit of her spirit,
Fallen in the cause of the free…

…They shall not grow old, as we that are left grow old;
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn,
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them…

Laurence Binyon served with the Red Cross and survived the war.

World War One claimed 60-thousand Canadian lives. Thousands more have perished in subsequent conflicts.

By November 11, 2010, the Afghan war has claimed 152 Canadian soldiers and four Canadian civilians. I wrote the following, a “plea” from our fallen to be remembered at home:

OUR MAPLE LEAVES LOST

The Maple Leaf flies at half-mast for me.
Did I die in Vain?
Mom clutches my picture in her weeping hands,
her Maple Leaf loved one, dead, on that Afghan plain.

At the Cenotaph on Remembrance Day,
mom and dad, if you see them there;
tell them to “carry on”
for their Maple Leaf soldier on that bloody Afghan plain.

I went over there to do some good,
in that awful neighbourhood.
But, if you don’t remember me,
then I’ll have died in Vain, on that searing Afghan plain.

Damn! My life was all too short; I did not want to die.
So, please keep my legacy in your hearts.
And, I’ll not have died in Vain
on that blasted Afghan plain.

Lest We Forget.

#17 Potato on 11.10.10 at 1:25 am

#4 Wise Guy: “Also, I did not know that you can simply transfer $5000 of equities into your TFSA. I thought that it had to be a clear cash deposit? Can you also do the same into your RRSP account?”

Yes, you can do what’s known as an in-kind transfer to an RRSP as well as your TFSA. It’s nice because it lets you pay the commission for buying a stock/ETF out of your non-registered funds, allowing you to shelter the maximum possible.

You even get to pick the low price of the day as the amount that the shares get put in at (e.g., if you were contributing 1000 shares of company X and the trading range was $4.80-$5.10 during the day, you could choose the low point, $4.80 as your contribution amount, even if the close was higher).

The one caveat is that if you have a paper gain at the time you contribute due to the length of time held in your non-registered account, you have to claim that as a realized gain on your taxes in the year you contribute. If you have a paper loss on the other hand, you don’t get to claim it, if memory serves.

#18 Yank on 11.10.10 at 1:27 am

I was in Virginia on a recent trip to the States. Bizarrely enough, the cabbie had a brother who was living in Edmonton and had bought a house for more then 400K. We bonded over the crazy-pants Canadian bubble prices, and wondered why people just didn’t buy 3 houses in Arizona for the same price. But his brother doesn’t think house prices can fall: “They never fall” he said.

(head bangs against wall)

#19 Rockstar on 11.10.10 at 1:40 am

Hi Garth, Good job at the “summit” tonight. I have a question. Who was the author of that book you briefly mentioned to help select ETF’s? Rob carat? (from Globe & mail)or something like that can’t seem to track it down?

#20 MKUltra on 11.10.10 at 1:43 am

TD Bank is “Smarter than You Think!”…this is their new tagline starting 2011.

It’s a ripoff of Scotiabank’s tagline of “Your richer than You Think!”

Let me explain…

Negative homeowner equity caused by price declines will NOT create a flood of forced sales at mortgage renewal time.

Effect Oct.18.2010 TD Bank has been registering all new mortgages as “collateral charges”. This is equivalent to taking our paper money off of the Gold Standard as Canada official did back on April 10, 1933.

This means that the value of your mortgage is no longer tied to the appraised value of your home come mortgage renewal time.

TD Bank will be free to “re-lend” you the full outstanding balance even if your house has dumped 20% of its value.

They know home values are gonna decline but as of Oct.18.2010 they have implement a stop-loss. So even mortgages pre-Oct.18.2010 will be renew at whatever the amount of the outstanding mortgage regardless of how much negative equity the homeowners are in.

The unlucky homeowners get to stay in their negative equity home – the bank keeps collecting the mortgage rent – and everyone stays happy knowing things could have been a lot worse.

This will not prevent a modest price decline but it will prevent a free fall.

In closing – do you really think the Queenbees of Canadian capitalism (The Big 5 Banks) are so stupid as to let the system it created work against it???? Do you really think they are gonna let the mortgages they issue sink their balance sheets???? Don’t be bloody stupid. Their collective minds are smarter than you on your best & luckiest day of your life. Don’t bet against them vis-a-vis a Canadian housing collapse.

#21 TheRaj on 11.10.10 at 1:51 am

Pop the champagne, 5 year fixed rates just went down, anybody (I) can now lock in and enjoy the granite – stainless steel and jetted tub for the next 1,457 days & nights. All while building equity (getting richer) — but I’ll still read blogs bout renting being better -short or/and long term. Even the ones saying this will not end well- it only ends when you die- otherwise it starts all over again the very next day/month/year …

And no I’m not Raj Toor in case it matters to you

#22 The Original Dave on 11.10.10 at 2:23 am

how about the weirdo with the attitude that asked “Where are the baby boomers going to live and, I’d like to hear about your house Garth, where do you live?”

Guys like this make me laugh. Always worried about who’s trying to trick them. Of course this time it’s Garth Turner. Garth wants us all to sell our houses so he can buy them! He buys them all off of us for $600,000 and then rents them each out for $1300 a month (sounds like an old Italian guy’s method of buying real estate….buy at any price, it always goes up)

#23 confused and a little crazed on 11.10.10 at 2:59 am

hi garth

i seem to recall you mentioned a coiorrection of 20 % around 2008…of course that was before emergency rates…now 2010
for toronto/ vancouver and 20 % again

hmmn maybe that’s the average some places more others less.

but if i fgure maybe you would say 30 % since people gorged themselves on emergency rates which will give them more exposure to debt than people who bought in 2008

#24 Causaline on 11.10.10 at 3:00 am

Hi everyone,

Following yesterday’s news about 1 trillion dollars in mortgage asssets, I’ve started writing a program to do detailed analysis of what’s in those 1 trillion mortgage assets. However, I was stopped short in my track by the unavailablility of the data I need.

Now, don’t get me wrong and call me lazy, I’ve already combed through the canequity and cmhc site. Calling CMHC and asking for the Canadian mortgage finance research document got me one of those generic answer where the agent tells me that they don’t have that document. (where it was specified on the CMHC website that canadian residents can get it free by calling that particular numbere). To deny the existence of such a document is remarkable.

In the US of A, where greed is legal, the mortgage origination data is available everywhere, I can get the type of mortgage originated and the amount of such mortgages per year with a simple google search. So I find it unusual that I can’t find even this year’s data on Canadians. So, for the sake of understanding, if anyone knows how to get to the data please email me at my address, in exchange, I will provide the analysis.

#25 Get Real on 11.10.10 at 3:00 am

He who stands alone is the strongest !

#26 Utopia on 11.10.10 at 3:09 am

What a great photo. Terrific crowd. I just wish I had been there. Thanks Garth.

And may I send my best of wishes and good luck investing to the Toronto blog-dawgs. It’s a conflicted market right now but sage advice is always welcome if it helps keep us all on top of the game.

To you, from me. From out here in the land of Potash.

#27 Behind the Numbers on 11.10.10 at 3:24 am

What a great group photo! It really puts the personality of this blog to the forefront. It is easy to forget you are talking to PEOPLE on here, not just replying to computer generated text.

As Glen Beck said on one of his programs… be the person online that you are in real life.

I wish I was in Toronto to attend, but I’m in Europe so…

(Waves at the blog dogs)

#28 confused and a little crazed on 11.10.10 at 3:29 am

by the way most of the stocks i bought recently are up
13 -20 % pretty sweet :)

thank you quantitative easing

one more time OBAMA …this time with feeling :)

#29 TaxHaven on 11.10.10 at 4:30 am

All I can add is that, in the thrice-weekly updates a certain small-town B.C. “realtor” sends me, I cannot recall a single price increase.

Something started about four months ago, when the number of “off market” properties soared and two or three “price changes” (ALWAYS down) were featured in every update.

When I look at even small fixer-upper 1964-1980 era beaters looking for $160K+, I know sellers aren’t realistic yet. But the number of “motivated seller” and “highly motivated seller” blurbs is increasing…

#30 Mel on 11.10.10 at 5:39 am

Here’s an article slamming the CMHC and Australia’s proposal to adopt a similar government-owned model (they currently operate a privatized mortgage insurance market).

http://www.unconventionaleconomist.com/2010/11/australia-following-canada-into.html

#31 gmc on 11.10.10 at 5:53 am

Garth
i have followed your advice and have prospered, the only problem it is convincing my wife that we are doing the right thing, we sold the house last fall in our little town of OWEN SOUND, when the three major employers shut the doors down, it is a retirement community, and I am being told that, the price are high because everybody will be moving to Owen Sound to retire from the city….help!!! how can you convince the population when I can’t even convince my wife, and that is after showing her all of the articles about the USA housing disaster, etc… ouch! it is tuff, meanwhile we are enjoying, the travelling (Thailand three weks last winter)and owing two horses etc… can’t do that on a huge mortgage,… soon I hope can’t show her that price are droping across the land due to the crapy newspapers and tv, before I am forced to jump into something, she cannot be happy without having a house to call home AAAAAAAh
gmc

#32 AM at LHR on 11.10.10 at 6:19 am

Gerry #58 (yesterday).
“Great blog, but who is the “orange guy” who keeps getting mentioned in this blog? This week folks are “stuffing billions in the orange guys’ inadequate shorts”.
——————————–

Gerry, it being the “wetcoast”, it is all being stuffed in his brolly now.

The orange shorts are stuffed full by now I think !

http://tinyurl.com/393d4dx

Cheers

#33 Brian1 on 11.10.10 at 6:40 am

I saw that you were having the event taped. A good idea. I imagine you will probably release it on You Tube after you are done with all your travelling. Was your wife there? Would like to have met her.

#34 John_in_Jims_Riding on 11.10.10 at 6:40 am

Thanks for the great talk last night Garth. I enjoyed it and I made some notes for things to research. Interestingly enough I caught the 10:13 GO back to JimsLand where on the seat I saw the Star headline you mentioned. I snickered and left it there. Later, sadly, I saw a couple reading that same tome and overheard them talking about getting a bigger house. A “Suzanne said we can do it” (google it if you don’t know that gem) moment that almost made me weep.

I didn’t get to ask you a question but I would hope you would comment on this: How about a REIT that focuses on Retirement homes? It has to be a growth market considering we are going to be tossed into a home sooner or later. Would it be good in a balanced mix? Thanks again for the talk last night. It was worth the GO to TO, hellish workday, TTC up to the Airport and back to JimsLand late at night ordeal!

#35 Robert the Bear on 11.10.10 at 6:41 am

Dear Garth,
Thank you for your articulate and contrary leadership about our Canadian housing bubble. My wife and I only one of our many friends have acted to protect capital and to start planning for a less abundant future, grateful for what we have saved and what we are blessed with. Oh yeah, I was at your high quality content seminar last night in Toronto and it reminded me of a big tent evangelical revival meeting, with your sermon first of all striking fear in the hearts of the faithful with descriptions of the current financial political hell on earth and then you show us the path to personal financial salvation in your well presented oration. In all sincerity, thank you.

#36 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.10.10 at 6:58 am

I was in attendance last night, and was surprised at the diversity of the audience… twenty-somethings all the way through boomers and even a few 80-somethings.

Here’s the biggest question that I have:

What is it that Garth says that is “controversial”???

Garth – you’ve got this reputation for being an outsider or contrarian, but your predictions/strategies are actually quite (dare I say) ‘normal’.

Your #1 message is to have your assets allocated properly, and that diversification/balance will help to make it through the unique economic climate that we’re all in today… not exactly a controversial message (unless you are a gold bug).

And – is it really that crazy to point out that we’re somewhere near the peak of the housing market? It has been a 10-year bull run!

Anyway – thank you for putting on the event, and hopefully a few more people woke up to the common sense approach of not putting all of your eggs in one basket.

#37 Paully on 11.10.10 at 7:00 am

I thought it was a great presentation. I particularly liked the “Crack-shack or Mansion” photos from Vancouver. I must have missed any reference to it in the blog previously, so if anyone else did too, here is the link.

http://www.crackshackormansion.com/

I had no idea just how crazy it is in Vancouver. I thought it was bad in Toronto, but wow, Vancouver is nuts!

#38 David B on 11.10.10 at 7:02 am

Another good night Garth …. suspect you are en route for some home time …. shime and cover up the hog for long winters nap.

South of the Border Google is giving 10% raises all-a-round. Interesting?

#39 Darryl on 11.10.10 at 7:06 am

looks like tinfoil hats were left at the coat check.
Don’t see a one. :)

#40 Ben on 11.10.10 at 7:08 am

Found this on Squidly’s blog, well put.

Realtors are not needed. Can you imagine buying a used car in a private sale and having some leech standing close by waiting for a handout? Or groceries? Or clothes?

They have set up a system that was pre information age. It relies on hiding and with holding stats, data, while manipulating prices through false and misleading marketing techniques, such as staging fake condo sales to induce frenzy-like behaviour.

The industry is getting what it deserves. Nobody values them anymore, as they are clinging to an archaic business model. It truly is one of the largest sunset industries of our time.

Since most in that particular vocation are looking for a quick and easy buck, the irony is that as the economy continues to falter, the number joining ranks will increase, as the false image that the industry portrays is one of riches and glory, so it rightfully attracts more dead beats looking for an easy buck.

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4782412295304442241&postID=5481124006334363539

#41 TS on 11.10.10 at 7:23 am

Hi Garth…. great to see you speak last evening! Loved the fast paced, fact-based presentation! Even won one of your books….a bonus!

Here is a link to a piece on the upcoming G20 meeting and the likelihood of more turmoil in the currency markets as many countries have lined up against the US quantitative easing actions:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-10/g-20-unity-born-in-financial-crisis-fractures-as-leaders-pursue-own-ends.html

The chart in the next link shows some continuing mixed economic data in the US, signally more choppiness in the markets:

http://www.forbes.com/economy/

Some positive news on the US economy based on a survey of economists….

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-10/recovery-to-speed-up-as-fed-moves-build-confidence-survey-says.html

#42 Nancy on 11.10.10 at 7:51 am

A research study several years ago discovered the easiest way to tell if a recession is coming: Count the number of times the word “recession” is used in the press. Even if it’s in a negative title, like “No recession brewing” that’s still using the word.

It seems we don’t talk about something unless it’s close by.

(This is great to know, because it can help you plan.)

I figure the same is true for bubbles. A year ago, there were only vague mutterings about bubbles (which still count as mentions). But over the past year, the mentions have risen, much more sharply lately, much more front-page.

This is all the warning you should need.

#43 GenXer on 11.10.10 at 7:52 am

To the BestPlaceonEarth

“20% is no big deal. Let’s take a scenario. 10 years ago you buy a Duplex for $250K which is now worth 900k. A 20% haircut means it’s now worth 720k. NO BIG DEAL. Because in 5 more years it’s worth 1.2 million.”

This analysis is based on what?

A 20% decline in values (which would be higher most likely in Vancouver, given the rediculous bubble pricing) would put hundreds of thousands into negative equity situations. Plus, that 20% decline would be happening during the last round available round of QE available to the US population.

What in the world would suddenly cause the housing market to almost double from $720k over the next 5 years? The Chinese have their own real estate bubble to worry about, and are running their own version of QE that continues to sap their resources and wealth. Nobody is saving Vancouver real estate, even if it is a beautiful place to live.

#44 Sail1 on 11.10.10 at 7:53 am

Garth wrote: Most people have no idea what’s coming.

I guess, Garth you are the second coming of Christ. You know all and everyone else knows nothing. Just like in 2008 the world is going to end again. Been there done that, its getting old.

#45 bigrider on 11.10.10 at 7:57 am

#21 TheRaj- Im not Raj Toor.

You must be. Only a moron like him would think the way you do.

#46 bigrider on 11.10.10 at 7:58 am

#22 Original Dave-“old Italian guys way of ,making money..houses always go up.

So true, that archaic ,old world thinking persists like a religion

#47 Ray MacDonald on 11.10.10 at 8:08 am

Just got back from Baltimore MD and a cruise to the Bahamas.
On that cruise we met a nice couple from Maryland. They told us that their daughter had paid $1 Million for a second property on the shore “as an investment”. She’s only down about $200K at this point.

#48 Brian1 on 11.10.10 at 8:09 am

McUltra #20 seems to be a party pooper. Does anyone think his theory has legs? Really like to know. Does anyone else share the same curiosity as me?

#49 Moneta on 11.10.10 at 8:19 am

A moment of silence for the renters and those who held off buying Vancouver cause they thought it was overpriced and had to come down. The fact is, in the previous example I gave off the 900k duplex being knocked dow to 720k most Canadians still cannot afford this price
————-
There is no free lunch. If someone gets a free lunch, someone else has to pay for it. Or that person just ends up paying for it later.

Someone can be lucky, it happens. Someone has to win the lottery. But when most people get lucky, you know something is very wrong. And that’s what has happened to most Canadian homeowners.

There is an equilibrium between assets and goods beause assets are used to buy goods. If this flow of assets into goods happens too fast the price of goods will balloon. If asset bubbles stop investors from properly allocating capital, productivity will decline and production of goods won’t be there to meet the demand backed by the assets and the price of goods will soar. It is not hard to see that if the discrepancy between asset values and the prices of goods widens to unsustainable levels, there will either be inflation in goods or a collapse in asset values. Of course this does not happen overnight and we are currently sowing the seeds.

The other reality is that most people do not realize that their house doubling or tripling was a gift. Many think that this easy money has made them superior beings. But if I’ve come to understadn one thing in this life it’s that fools and their money are easily parted. Easy come, easy. Most of the people who made easy money off their homes will lose it. I am 100% sure of this. Only time will tell.

#50 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.10.10 at 8:23 am

@ #19 Rockstar:

Rob Carrick – one of the primary business writers at the Globe and Mail.

http://www.amazon.ca/Carricks-Guide-Downright-Canadian-Investments/dp/0385667450/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1289394537&sr=8-1

#51 Moneta on 11.10.10 at 8:30 am

Guys like this make me laugh. Always worried about who’s trying to trick them. Of course this time it’s Garth Turner. Garth wants us all to sell our houses so he can buy them! He buys them all off of us for $600,000 and then rents them each out for $1300 a month (sounds like an old Italian guy’s method of buying real estate….buy at any price, it always goes up)
———–
No but maybe the banks will become our landlords.

We are a mature economy. Chances are we will be looking more and more like Europe as time goes on. And in Europe real estate is friggin expensive. Banks and a small number of elijte own. The rest rents.

#52 S.B. on 11.10.10 at 8:31 am

Here are three crowd shots from the back of the Toronto event – a massive crowd.

http://img710.imageshack.us/i/img00337c.jpg/

http://img340.imageshack.us/i/img00338x.jpg/

http://img222.imageshack.us/i/img00339o.jpg/

It was the best presentation I have seen, ever. I will remember it for a long time to come.
Thanks to Garth for doing what he does best. We all have unique talents, but he has quite a few and he shared them all with us: smarts, wit, understanding, practicality, and wisdom.

#53 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.10.10 at 8:31 am

This is sad: here is the only coverage that I found on “Houseaggedon”:

http://www.metronews.ca/toronto/local/article/687472–two-views-of-gta-s-housing-market

(a two-sentence callout in the free Metro paper!)

And – a couple of blogs like this one:

http://www.tomrobic.com/new-home-prices-up-across-canada/

Who says the MSM doesn’t report this stuff???

#54 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.10.10 at 8:36 am

@ #34 John_in_Jims_Riding:

There are a few Canadian REITs (and several US ones) that focuses on retirement homes.

One is Extendicare, which is right around $10 and yields about 8.5% (it was over 10% a few months ago).

*** But you have to be careful — these types of REITs still own a lot of real estate, and may get hit somewhat when the bubble melts. Also, there are lawsuits that pop up fairly frequently, which is another risk to a seniors’ care REIT.

#55 Behind the Numbers on 11.10.10 at 8:39 am

#16 VICTORIA TEA PARTY “Yes, this is a serious real estate blog, but when November 11th comes around it is: TIME FOR REMEMBRANCE”

Rename Rememberance day to Freedom Appreciation Day.

With the vast majority of WWII soldiers gone and fewer people today have ever seen war, the average person doesn’t know the high cost of freedom nor the horrors of war.

War to the average person is a video game of First Person Shooter or Hollywood movies or what little they show on TV in a distant land.

People and gov’ts are quick to anger, fast to accuse and more and more xenophobic vs other races. We now have pre-emptive strikes, are fine with torture camps and the stock markets think China is great (minus all that human rights violations, who cares if you make a buck right?)

Remembering those who gave their lives for your freedom is honourable, but I would like to put forward we rename Rememberance day to Freedom Appreciation Day.

I was a soldier in the Canadian Armed Forces in the 1st Gulf War.

#56 David B on 11.10.10 at 8:40 am

Very Interesting

Ireland’s Fate Tied to Doomed

Bankshttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704506404575592360334457040.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

Ya gottta love this paragraph eh:

As the European Central Bank held interest rates low, Ireland saw easy credit for construction loans and mortgages. Developers turned docklands into office towers and sheep pastures into subdivisions. In 2006, builders put up 93,419 homes, three times the rate a decade earlier.

#57 housedoc on 11.10.10 at 8:50 am

Sorry I missed you last night. I think it was parvovirus.
On the bright side, MPAC just informed me that since ’05, I’ve I made 62K/year that I didn’t know about. Woohoo!
Almost makes one want to pay more property tax. Not!

#58 lonely limey on 11.10.10 at 8:52 am

Nice one Garth. Enjoyed the presentation and the fast pace of your delivery. Great turnout and well worth the effort to attend.

Keep banging the drum.

#59 Nuke on 11.10.10 at 8:55 am

enjoyed the event last night. such common sense and practical expectations. sure the world is going through significant change. so much power and money concentrated in so few hands. the mantra of too big to fail being chanted for every major bail out or quantitative easing. I think Victor Hugo said it best regarding the corrupt French Government – ” to my friends I give them power, to everyone else, the Law” Garth is right, G20 in Toronto turned in 24 hours the most open city in the world into a police state – stripping us all of our rights and basic dignity.

#60 you killed my cat on 11.10.10 at 9:11 am

Thank you for a great night! I took my husband & it was great for him to hear what I have been trying to explain directly from you! I try very hard to be an ethical Realtor that follows your advice & tries to pass it on to my clients. Keep up the good work, you certainly don’t have to work so hard to try & beat the truth into the unwashed masses heads, but I’m glad you do. Thank you again for your great advice earlier this summer.

#61 BrianT on 11.10.10 at 9:22 am

#59Nuke-IMO the G20 in Toronto was the worst thing that ever happened to this city and it leaves a permanent stain.

#62 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.10.10 at 9:25 am

@ #48 Brian1

Yes – I agree with your / McUltra’s theory: the Canadian Banks are witnesses the mess of paperwork that you get with foreclosure (sorry: “power of sale”) situations, and are lining up the sheeple to get stuck with that giant mortgage, regardless of what happens with the house it came from.

*** And — you think that it is a coincidence that the 0% down / 40-year mortgages are about to come for renewal??? (2006 was the start of that experiment, which puts the 5-year renewals in 2011)

Make no mistake: TD is locking everyone in before this sucker explodes.

Bankruptcies don’t help them one bit — you know what makes MORE money: people paying giant loans for 35 years!

#63 Susan from London area on 11.10.10 at 9:27 am

Loved your seminar, love your blog,read your books,good to meet you. Gosh I remember the time I e-mailed you, I called you a turncoat when you were elected. Thats when you took the position working on the budget, and all the tax reliefs that were promised ie; deferring capital gains,were wiped off the table!!! (the very reason I voted for the “PCers” and convinced my friends to as well) Ohhh I thought Hmph, there you go, no different than the rest LOL. Then you were thrown out of the party, or what ever. Wow I loved it and said he’s back. Then I had to apologize via e-mail. I thought now thats somebody who stands up for what he beleives,
like Tom Petty
“I Won’t back down, I will stand my ground”
My 90 yr old Mom loved you too by the way,
she was the one who started me reading your articles. That put her back to hmm lets see yup a war bride, depresson, boom. She seen alot and had been telling me for a long time “Susie theres something wrong here, the unions are going to brake the country, and housing is unaffordable.” Oh she was stubborn you couldn’t convince her otherwise.
I just want to say I’ve been asking for someone to give me finacial guidance. I’ve asked my accountants, lawyers, friends I even asked you LOL. No one knows anyone who isn’t unbiased and not trying to sell their product. Everyone is individual and we need advice according to our individual situations that to me is what your offering. If theres a fee well than Dam it might be the cheapest advice I’ve had in a long time. You can just call me, lost in real estate rich and cash poor land.

#64 David B on 11.10.10 at 9:28 am

Fed Global Backlash Grows
China and Russia Join Germany in Scolding; Obama Defends Move as Pro-Growth.

By JONATHAN WEISMAN
NEW DELHI—Global controversy mounted over the Federal Reserve’s decision to pump billions of dollars into the U.S. economy, with President Barack Obama defending the move as China, Russia and the euro zone added to a chorus of criticism

I trust y’all must understand by now that printing money and throwing it at investors will not work in long term. Simply put it becomes useless … when paper fails then so will gold. WHY? … hello to spend gold you must turn it into paper …. lights on yet?

All very interesting as are the times we live in eh?

#65 dog eat dog on 11.10.10 at 9:35 am

Thanks Garth for a awesome presentation last night. Great crowd too – very eclectic.

My wife and I, being first time home buyers started looking at houses this summer – luckily for me, about the same time I started reading this blog. Now, the home purchase has been deffered at least until mid-2012. While my other half was initially unhappy with the postponement, she is now fully onside – especially after last night’s presentation.

One question I do have and would love to hear people’s opinions on is:

From my understanding, housing activity makes up a substantial part of the GDP.

When the melt does occur in 2014 to 2015, how will this affect the Canadian economy as a whole?

#66 Leanne on 11.10.10 at 9:37 am

#19 Rockstar:

The book is Rob Carrick’s Guide To What’s Good, Bad And Downright Awful In Canadian Investments Today, available at Indigo/Chapter’s – http://goo.gl/vb0JB

#67 Pete on 11.10.10 at 10:03 am

Realtor MKUltra #20

You are a stupid realtor. Your wishful thinking is simply clueless to reality. The housing crash is going to get much worse as sales continue to fall yet again for the SIXTH MONTH in a row. That is a half a year of over 20% drop in sales and prices are falling with it.The banks will laugh and get the CHMC money.Thosewho need to sell and can’t will go bankrupt. This is why power of sales in Brampton is up since people who wanted to sell but could not sell lose everything. Debt in Canada is one trillion dollars. Canadians won’t be able to service this mortgage debt.

#68 Ron Burgundy on 11.10.10 at 10:05 am

As per your slideshow last night, How will GDP/Corporate Profits/Stock Markets continue to rise, if consumer spending declines? As we’ve shifted away from an Industrial Economy for one that is more Consumer based, how on earth will GDP (GDP = C + I + G + (Ex – Im) grow (+) if consumer spending on goods and services tails off? As governments increase taxes/reduce spending, real estate teeters on the brink, consumers tighten their pocketbooks in fear of losing the roof over their heads, corporations hoard their cash by halting wages/new hires and our exports get hammered by a weak US economy/strong Canadian dollar, ($1.15 as you so elegantly predicted) how can you possibly predict that CDN GDP will grow? Corporate profits will increase? and the stock market will inevitably inch higher? Is there something I am missing here? There can’t possibly be enough Farmers’ Income to prop up the “I” component. I thought I was listening last night, but I’m having a hard time comprehending how QE in hopes of inflation in the US will somehow allow our Country to flourish? Anybody else as confused as I am ?

#69 Herb on 11.10.10 at 10:06 am

Isn’t the bald guy in the first row in the first chair left of the aisle Brad Lamb? And I feared you’d be preaching to the converted!

And when are you going to end your discrimination against the Nation’s Capital? Us local dogs want to be stroked too.

#70 Herb on 11.10.10 at 10:17 am

Victoria Tea Party (#16) and Behind the Numbers (#55),

and let’s not forget Kipling’s epitaph for his son (KIA WWI):

If any question why we died,
Tell them, because our fathers lied.

#71 Timing is Everything on 11.10.10 at 10:17 am

#51 Moneta said – “Chances are we will be looking more and more like Europe as time goes on. And in Europe real estate is friggin expensive. Banks and a small number of elijte own. The rest rents.”

Europe has quite a few centuries more ‘civilization’ than N. America. Look, just wait it out, if you really want a house. I’ll be selling mine sometime between 2025 and 2030. Plus there is always Weyburn, but prices seem fairly high there too. Hmmm, I wonder what rent is in Weyburn.

http://properties.househunting.ca/homes-for-sale/WEYBURN-SK-CAN/

http://www.leaderpost.com/Homes/2487288.bin?size=620×400

#72 Pete on 11.10.10 at 10:19 am

Look at all the worried and stressed out realtors as sales have CRASH HARD!. Realtors are starving for sales and they will do anything for a $1. you know the housing bubble is coming down when sales have crashed and realtors come to greaterfool in greater numbers each and everyday. Why? Why would realtors who claim everything is ok now come to greaterfool? The fact is they are suffering without any money or sales and they face losing everything from their BMW to their houses. Many realtors went bankrupt in the 90’s during the last housing crash.

POP………………………..

Realtors…………..I don’t want to go bankrupt and lose my home again. Yes , RE does crash but I don’t want you greaterfools to know. I need money….I need to make a sale. PLease RE always goes up.

Greaterfool…………..You stupid uneducated realtor lied to me. Now I have to go bankrupt.

#73 GregW, Oakville on 11.10.10 at 10:24 am

Hi Garth, fyi, an informative artical with good links for more information.

“These courageous government-appointed NRC reviewers also concluded that “fluoride appears to have the potential to initiate or promote cancers.”

“Even people who live in non-fluoridated communities consume, on average, 4 mg of fluoride a day. It is in toothpaste, fruit juices, soda pop, tea, and processed foods. People living in fluoridated areas consume twice as much fluoride, 8 mg/L a day. Fluoride is readily absorbed through the skin (bathing and wearing clothes washed with fluoridated water) and through the lungs (inhaling steam in a fluoridated shower). As a result, it turns out that two-thirds of the fluoride people take into their bodies using fluoridated community water comes from bathing and wearing clothes washed in it. Athletes and people working in hot climates who drink a lot of water and infants who are fed formula with fluoridated tap water are at particular risk for being subjected to a toxic dose of fluoride.”
http://www.infowars.com/fighting-fluoride/

brita filters do not remove fluoride and boiling it make it more concentarted.
Why is it still being added to human beings drinking water supply???

#74 bigrider on 11.10.10 at 10:25 am

Somebody broke wind in the back yesterday night. Didn’t want to say anything, was pretty bad. Must have been a realtwhore getting a bit gassy, subject matter must have been a little intestinally disturbing.

#75 Pr on 11.10.10 at 10:28 am

Thomas Jefferson warned us about the situation we find ourselves in. He said:

“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered…I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies… The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”

#76 Northern Dirt on 11.10.10 at 10:36 am

Great presentation last night.

I have to give a shout out to one of your book winners. He offered me the copy of “Money Road” he had won, as he already had a copy and wanted to help educate others.. I declined as I too already had a copy.

#54 T.O. Bubble Boy

Extendicare offers a DRIP with a 3% discount..

Awesome, thanks for the heads up.. Been building my Virtual Boomer Doom portfolio, and its things like this I need to fill it..

#77 The Original Dave on 11.10.10 at 10:47 am

G Man, I heard someone say that the only reason quantitative easing is possible is because there’s demand for U.S bonds but when that demand drops, quantitative easing won’t be an option. The bond market is one of my weak areas.

#78 Dorf on 11.10.10 at 10:50 am

Leanne on 11.10.10

“Ironically, at the seminar tonight I was sitting near a realtor who spent most of the evening trying to convince me and another girl that now is a good time to buy. Duh.”

It IS a good time to buy. If you buy right now, he might get paid his commission just in time to pay his mortgage and save his own ass, thanks to you.

Next time sit beside me, and I’ll convince you and your girlfriend to come for drinks instead.

;-)

#79 High Park Renter on 11.10.10 at 10:57 am

Thanks for the event last night Garth, it was great fun!

I have the same question as several posters: why are you optimistic about GDP growth in Canada, even modest growth, when so many of the problems you identify are deflationary (structural unemployment, unsustainably high debt loads, the decline of sugar daddy USA)? Can selling more potash to India really make up the difference?

#80 Got A Watch on 11.10.10 at 11:07 am

Here’s some reality, for the REalt(ho)r(TM) trolls out there. You’ll have alot more time on your hands to think about why you made the massive career mistake you did:

ZILLOW: HOME PRICE DECLINE TO SURPASS GREAT DEPRESSION

“More bad news out of the housing market today as Zillow, a leading online real estate marketplace, released their third quarter report and it largely echos what we saw in yesterday’s Clear Capital report – the housing market is double dipping. Home values fell an average -4.3% in the third quarter. Stan Humphries, the Chief Economist at Zillow says the housing market decline is likely to surpass the Great Depression’s decline and that prices are unlikely to recover before next summer:

“While not unexpected, the unceasing declines in home values signal that we’re in for a long, bleak winter of continued troubles for the housing market. The length and depth of the current housing recession is rivaling the Great Depression’s real estate downturn, and, with encouraging signs fading, will easily eclipse it in the coming months.”

Humphries also said the number of foreclosures reached a new all-time high and that the number of homeowners under water on their loan has now reached 23% – a high this year. Humphries is not optimistic”

“The high percentage of homeowners in negative equity continues to be troubling, in that it represents a huge number of people who are not only more vulnerable to foreclosure, but who are essentially trapped in their current homes and are prevented from selling and buying a new home. This has profound implications for future demand and will be a millstone around the neck of the housing market.”

The housing market is playing out almost exactly as I’ve expected in recent years. This still remains a simple supply and demand story. The overhang of inventory is crushing meager demand and the mortgage mess isn’t helping matters as shadow inventory is pushed further into the future. If you thought the housing crisis in the USA was behind us you might want to think again. Housing was the domino that set the credit crisis in motion in 2007 and it could pose a very serious risk in 2011.”

Thanks to the source Blog Pragmatic Capitilast

If you think “they” (who are they, anyway?) or “the Government” or the “establishment” or maybe God won’t prevent real estate prices for falling in Canada for a few years, you are dumber than a box of rocks.

The US FED and Government have thrown about $4 Trillion $ at the problem, and real estate prices are still falling.

Now if aliens land, as some NASA scientist said, and they have a need to buy a suburban McMansion or a trendy condo, the real estate market will be fine. Go outside, look up and wait. While you’re out there, pray. That those aliens have a good employment history and income to qualify for a mortgage.

A “Depression” is the word they used to describe a severe economic contraction, after the words “Crash” “Panic”, and “Bubble” were thought too scary to the public. Today, we call it a “Recession”, in 40 years it will maybe a “Slowdown”. A rose by any other name…..

#81 Lance on 11.10.10 at 11:11 am

“Their collective minds are smarter than you on your best & luckiest day of your life. Don’t bet against them vis-a-vis a Canadian housing collapse.”

Lehman Brothers had a lot of smart minds. It’s amazing the level of stupidity that can be generated when everyone is busy thinking they’re smarter than everyone else.

#82 The Original Dave on 11.10.10 at 11:12 am

Hey Garth,

Do you think by 2013 prices of a home in Toronto will be 20% lower than that same home in 2007?
——————————————————
hi garth

i seem to recall you mentioned a coiorrection of 20 % around 2008…of course that was before emergency rates…now 2010
for toronto/ vancouver and 20 % again

hmmn maybe that’s the average some places more others less.

but if i fgure maybe you would say 30 % since people gorged themselves on emergency rates which will give them more exposure to debt than people who bought in 2008
—————————————————

Toronto will get hit more than 20%. Garth says he thinks 2005 prices is where we’re heading. My time speculating into any asset that I saw as a potential bubble in the future (oil, uranium, gold, silver) taught me a lot about behavioural economics. When prices retract after a big boom, they don’t go to where they should – they fall further. Oil from $140 to $30, uranium $150 a pound to $40. Look at U.S real estate, prices have over shot to the downside now making it affordable and then some!

I’ve stated, by looking at the numbers that Toronto is 34% over priced. Once selling really starts you can shave that off plus overshooting of prices to the downside.

#83 throwstone on 11.10.10 at 11:20 am

JOKES

http://www.financialpost.com/news/business-insider/Canadian+mortgage+debt+tops+trillion/3793135/story.html

#84 LB on 11.10.10 at 11:29 am

#20 MkUltra

You are quite right, the TD “collateral mortgate”, which will be mirrored soon by all the other banks, is a short stop to ensure home”owners”continue to pay rent to them on their original mortgage, regardless of an appraisal that indicates the property has declined in value.

More importantly, this collateral mortgage ensures that even if a home”owner” sells, or there is a POW, at a loss, HE will still be responsible for paying the difference to the bank – forever, if necessary, with no bankruptcy tactic allowed.

This means mortgaged home”owners” will be locked into perpetual payment towards a declining or lost asset.

Not a good investment strategy, so this is what will spurn both RE speculators and potential buyers,so these collateral mortages will only contribute to a continuing RE price decline. This will be good thing for cash buyers down the road, but not good for anyone requiring a mortgage.

#85 Wise Guy on 11.10.10 at 11:33 am

#17 Potato

Thanks for the info!

Yes there were many realtors there last night. I attended along with my fiance and we had a realtor sitting beside us too!

I even saw a guy from the neighbourhood and he introduced me to his friend that was a realtor. I think since every Tom, Dick, and Harry has their real estate license, most realtors tend to be our friends or family.

Usually these realtors will try to convince you to BUY NOW. As your friend, they are offering their expertise advice, but I think many people brought along their realtors/friends to show them the other side of the story.

When it came to question period, people started filtering out, just like the realtor that sat beside me!

I think the proof was in the pudding from Garth’s presentation. They didn’t have any questions, because those questions were answered!

#86 cousin on 11.10.10 at 11:34 am

Hi guys:

Nothing like off main stream, for revulsion:

http://4closurefraud.org/2010/11/07/kaboooooooom-full-video-deposition-of-crystal-moore-of-nationwide-title-clearing/

#87 The Original Dave on 11.10.10 at 11:35 am

I stood at the back of the room last night and looking at the sea of people, I couldn’t help but look at the couples that were together. I can’t imagine the difference of opinions amongst many of them. It’s very odd for both people in a relationship to see that going contrary to popular opinion is the right thing to do. Husbands there with their wives so that wifey could gain some perspective and vice versa. I too was there just to bring my wife. She loves the bubble. HGTV is her thing. Holmes on Homes is her hero. I had to get her there.

Sometimes (actually a lot of times) people are swayed simply by the masses. When you’re in a room with 1,000 people its difficult to not embrace the consensus opinion. As sickening as it sounds, and I do not agree with it by any means, this is something that Hitler used when he spoke in front of thousands. It is difficult to have faith in your individual opinion when thousands or hundreds of thousands have a strong and passionate opposing view. This is what many of us face in the public eye. Most people still have that strong and commanding passionate view about real estate. Our individual opinion leaves us quiet and in the corner. If you speak against real estate, you get battered and ridiculed. The difference is: speaking up against a strong, dictorial political movement will likely leave you at the center of a public hanging. Going against a strong, passionate movement into a single asset will leave you on the other end as well – much wealthier!

Good luck to all. Garth thanks for making this very long awaited appearance in Toronto. Hopefully you can do it again soon. Also, to remove the burden, you can post on this blog to get help from people. I would have helped in any way necessary.

#88 Grrr on 11.10.10 at 11:35 am

“The Star’s headline on that story, writ in 72-point type: “No bubble brewing”.”

Well it is true. The bubble isn’t brewing, it is fully brewed. Way to deceive without actually lying Star.

#89 BrianT on 11.10.10 at 11:41 am

#81Lance-when someone makes a lot of money losing your money that isn’t stupidity-Fuld didn’t just stumble into 400 million dollars.

#90 GregW, Oakville on 11.10.10 at 11:45 am

Hi Garth, fyi

China says G20 should monitor US Fed
AFP
November 9, 2010

China’s state media has issued a new broadside at the US Federal Reserve’s move to prime the US economy, suggesting the Group of 20 should monitor policy shifts by the US central bank.

The Xinhua news agency said in a commentary the Fed was “risking the global recovery by following its own track for economic revival” by spending an extra $US600 billion ($A593.65 billion) buying Treasury bonds to stimulate the US economy.

The comments were published just days ahead of two key summits this week – the G20 meeting in Seoul and the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum in Yokohama, Japan – that are expected to focus on rebalancing global trade.

http://www.infowars.com/china-says-g20-should-monitor-us-fed/

#91 BrianT on 11.10.10 at 11:46 am

#80Got-Yes. As a relatively small % of the US population is getting any of the money that is being sucked out of the economy (it is being dropped from a helicopter but the vast majority don’t have a net to catch any) there is no mechanism for overall RE prices to increase. Wage level DECLINES are the mandate of the Fed and this is stressed repeatedly (couched as a positive for inflation dampening).

#92 Devore on 11.10.10 at 11:46 am

#24 Causaline

Freedom of Information request?

#93 Another Albertan on 11.10.10 at 11:50 am

#49/Moneta:

The corollary is that a fool was lucky to get together with his money in the first place.

Everyone else’s mileage may vary.

#94 Money Thrower on 11.10.10 at 11:50 am

#20 MKUltra – “Canadian Bankers – the smartest guys in the room”

Gee, MK, We Canadians must be lucky, having all these really smart people end up in banking. What happened to all the smart people in the US, or the UK, or Ireland, or Spain, or Greece? Obviously didn’t go into banking – Good thing it’s different here!

A couple of years ago the heros at ManuLife seemed pretty smart. Boy, they got dumb in a hurry. Good thing they weren’t one of the big financial firms you were talking about.

As for TD’s new deal – would you sign up, when it makes it expensive to take your mortgage elsewhere for a better deal at the end of a term?

#95 BrianT on 11.10.10 at 11:52 am

#73Greg-I assume your question is rhetorical-I am sure you are aware of just how much money is generated by the cancer biz.

#96 fu_ming_xia on 11.10.10 at 11:54 am

Awesome presentation Garth! I brought my Family and they really enjoyed it!

Can you provide a link or info for the services you offer? I lost the pamphlet.

Thanks mang!

#97 GregW, Oakville on 11.10.10 at 11:55 am

Hi Garth, fyi, link to link

Bernanke Confirms That The Key Goal Of The Fed, And QE2, Is To Boost Stock Prices. November 9, 2010

“So much for the Fed’s two mythical mandates of promoting “maximum employment” and maintaining “price stability.” First, we had Bernanke’s predecessor Greenspan confirming in late July on Meet the Press what everyone knows: namely that the primary goal of the Fed is merely to encourage higher stock prices: ”

“So yes, those for whom Bernanke’s “easing” is working, are taking advantage of it. As for the other group of beneficiaries, the ones who are going to receive over $100 billion in bonuses this year, well: they already literally own Bernanke, so we are not too worried about them either.

As for everyone else, tough luck. Since for 99% of America, surging prices will not be offset by any appreciation in their meager stock holding, nor will deteriorating employment prospects, declining home values, and a recessionary relapse in the economy provoke Americans to actually part with their increasingly meager capital as confirmed by the 26th sequential outflow from US retail mutual funds. In other words, the bulk of America has nothing to look forward to except encroaching poverty, and retirement fund balances substantiated by nothing than fraudulent, FASB-endorsed, stock valuations.

Furthermore, when Bernanke said that: “our earlier use of this policy approach had little effect on the amount of currency in circulation or on other broad measures of the money supply, such as bank deposits” he was only kidding, as the following chart of M2, whose primary component are precisely bank deposits and savings, demonstrates:”
http://www.infowars.com/bernanke-confirms-that-the-key-goal-of-the-fed-and-qe2-is-to-boost-stock-prices/

#98 Reasonfirst on 11.10.10 at 12:14 pm

#20 MKUltra

“In closing – do you really think the Queenbees of Canadian capitalism (The Big 5 Banks) are so stupid as to let the system it created work against it???? Do you really think they are gonna let the mortgages they issue sink their balance sheets???? Don’t be bloody stupid. Their collective minds are smarter than you on your best & luckiest day of your life. ”

I used to think that Lehman Bros. was smart…..

#99 Live within your means on 11.10.10 at 12:18 pm

#4 WISE GUY on 11.10.10 at 12:35 am
It was awesome to see and hear you today at the “Money Grab” seminar today!

These were the words I heard from three guys prior to your talk as I walked in. They said, nobody seems to realize that this is just a big money grab and he will be selling his financial services…etc…etc.

They were wrong! You offered financial help if people wanted it and that was it!

……………

Hubby and I attended Garth’s ‘seminar’ in Oct. IIRC, Garth did not offer his financial sevices, but those who sponsered the event handed out their business cards.

#100 GregW, Oakville on 11.10.10 at 12:21 pm

Hi Garth, Still wanting to fly? Want your wife and kids to be force to go through this??? fyi artical link below

Flight Attendants Outraged Over Intrusive Patdowns
November 10, 2010

“Despite a claim by the Transport Security Administration that its employees are not sexually assaulting passengers, a flight attendants union with 2,000 members has voiced its outrage over “invasive pat-downs” recently implemented by the TSA.”

“if they opt out of using the body scanner through security and are required to undergo a pat-down to ask the pat-down be conducted in a private area with a witness. “We don’t want them in uniform going through this enhanced screening where

their private areas are being touched in public,” said Volpe.

“They actually make contact with the genital area.”

“The outrage of flight attendants follows that of commercial pilots who have protested both naked body scanners and intrusive pat-downs. “Pilots are piping mad over the options, saying the full-body scanners

emit dangerous levels of radiation and that the

alternative public patdown is disgraceful for a pilot in uniform. Some pilots have said they felt so violated after a patdown, they were unfit to fly,”

“The TSA, through its groping of passengers and the capturing of their naked body images, is guilty of committing numerous felony crimes. If a security guard at a grocery store, for example,

groped little children with his fingers and took ‘naked body scanner’ pictures of customers, he would be arrested as a sex crime offender,”

Adams continues. “So why are we letting our own federal government commit sex crimes against us

when we’d be thrown in prison for the same lewd behavior?”
http://www.infowars.com/flight-attendants-outraged-over-intrusive-patdowns/

#101 What to buy? on 11.10.10 at 12:33 pm

Hey Garth (and others),

I am curious to know what type of investments you recommend? Gold and other hard assets will be coming back down to earth shortly, bonds are a no go, equity investments are a crap shoot – what do you believe makes sense now?

#102 Business Unusual aka the BUN on 11.10.10 at 12:41 pm

Garth, I’ll give it to you, man. You’re tenacious!

Writing about the impending bursting of bubble and doom that never seems to come. I’ve almost given up hope the market will correct and I’m an uber bear.

I for one am sickened and disappointed how long it is taking for this market to correct!

Anything you can say to comfort a sad, little bear?

Thanks

#103 Business Unusual aka the BUN on 11.10.10 at 12:44 pm

Have you been to Garth’s seminar?

I’m curious? How does Garth afford to pay to put people in the room?

What’s his revenue model?

Same as this blog. — Garth

#104 Northern Dirt on 11.10.10 at 12:54 pm

#99 Live within your means
#4 WISE GUY

“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self-interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own neccessities but of their advantages.”

There is nothing wrong with promoting oneself, or ones product.. That said, I agree with both of you, There was no pushiness or a feeling of being given a sales pitch at the seminar last night.

#105 GregW, Oakville on 11.10.10 at 12:56 pm

Hi #103, I belive Garth has the mean$ and knows he can’t take it all with him to the otherside. We should all be thankfully he covers the expence of the blog and his talks, I assume himself.

#106 GregW, Oakville on 11.10.10 at 1:18 pm

Hi Garth, fyi artical

Obama: Tug-of-war Between Those Who See Globalization as Threat and Those Who Accept It
November 8, 2010

“As luck would have it, on the same day Obama warned naysayers of his global agenda, the Wall Street Journal unveiled its worldwide economic forecast – and it ain’t pretty. But let’s start with Obama’s comments from today’s speech in Mumbai.

(Times of India) Implicitly acknowledging the decline of American dominance, Barack Obama on Sunday said the US was no longer in a position to “meet the rest of the world economically on our terms.”
http://www.infowars.com/obama-tug-of-war-between-those-who-see-globalization-as-threat-and-those-who-accept-it/

#107 Kitchener1 on 11.10.10 at 1:25 pm

#82 The Original Dave

I agree, when markets over correct they do so in a huge way to the downside.

If we revert back to mean at approx 3-4 times income its going to get ugly.

Toronto, average family income of approx 70k x 4 = 320K and thats best case scenerio at 3 times its 210K.

At 3.5 its 240K for the average house. and thats if it does not go below the average mean.

My take is that we will not repeat the US experience. What i see is a hard and fast drop in the 30% range.

Dont think it cant happen, in 2008 in the GTA we would have easily seen a 30% YoY drop if not for the emergency rates.

Either way, I see a fast and hard drop of over 30% in 12-18 months and then stagnating market. People will panic and sell at any cost.

get the popcorn ready.

#108 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.10.10 at 1:29 pm

@ #69 Herb:

No – Brad J Lamb is about 6’5″, and always travels with his “arm candy” girlfriend.

#109 Kitchener1 on 11.10.10 at 1:31 pm

FYI, if Garth sees pricing going back to 05 levels in the GTA, that means an average home price of 335K compared to todays average so far year to date of 430K

430K (2010 average to date) vs 335K (2005 average)

= 22% drop in price, very conservative in my opinon.

#110 GregW, Oakville on 11.10.10 at 2:06 pm

Hi #95 BrianT, I don’t know you personally, so I’m not exactly sure how to take your comment.
I wish you and all, good health and happyness BrianT.

Money is just a tool made by some men for…
Forcing exposure of fluoride on human being by adding it to there drinking water…
(From what I’ve seen the science does not back up water fluoridation claims. I does cause harm!
I no longer drink my cities fluoridated water, I wish it stopped so I would not be force to shower/bath in it!)

Cancer biz…

I recall once being told there are sociopaths among us, so be ware.

Have you see the show/movie “the corporation”?

What a wonderful world we are on, the only one we know about for sure.
And a few people have still F’d it up for so many despite…

#111 Bryan35 on 11.10.10 at 2:15 pm

When are you coming to Winnipeg?

#112 Wilde_at_heart on 11.10.10 at 2:17 pm

I have friends I don’t even discuss real estate with because the mere mention that prices won’t keep rising forever generates too much hostility.

@#20 MKUltra: two words: “government bailout”.

THIS is why they are “smarter than you think”:

http://www.td.com/investor/pdf/2009rbc_trans.pdf

Actual quote in the document:
what are the chances that TD Bank is going to not be bailed out if it did something stupid?

#113 Timing is Everything on 11.10.10 at 2:29 pm

#107 Kitchener1 said – “get the popcorn ready.”

I want a sno-cone.

#114 lonely limey on 11.10.10 at 2:49 pm

@ T.O Bubble Boy

“No – Brad J Lamb is about 6’5″, and always travels with his “arm candy” girlfriend.”

Last time I saw her on one of his TV shows she looked like a bloke and had a 5 o’clock shadow. I swear she could have beat the crap out of me anytime it took her fancy.

#115 MikeT on 11.10.10 at 3:00 pm

Nostradamus, where are you?
I come here to read Garth’s blog and your comments (especially the links).
Don’t leave us!

#116 Ian on 11.10.10 at 3:01 pm

If you had a choice, slavery or freedom, which would you choose?

#75 Pr said, Thomas Jefferson warned us about the situation we find ourselves in.

I say then,… “break the chains”.

http://www.trendsresearch.com/index.htm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9dGHuRExiM&feature=related

Watch all the related videos.

TJ said,

“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered…I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies… The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”

#117 Crash Callaway on 11.10.10 at 3:06 pm

This has got to rate as one of Garth’s best posts.
So clear concise and a willingness to illustrate with crayons!
Can’t get any plainer or simpler.

And the good news is that the pumpers and scamers are running out of corners to hide in.

Hang in there blawg dawgs.
The ship is starting to turn.

#118 realpaul on 11.10.10 at 3:06 pm

The pimps know that the market is sinking which is why the ads are full of sunshine stories….the pimps have inventory they need to sell. When the inventory is sold they will no longer have a need to advertise…then the bad news will start to trickle in. It is in the interest of the PTB to keep the ponzi scam afloat ..at least until they have their retirements all sewn up nicely.

Look at the scam they threw at the silver market yesterday….still trying to drive the price of metal down and pump paper……..it can’t end well for the pimps…which is why they are trying to get out rich….rich enough to afford the inflation they’ve turned loose……the smart money stays in the game.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20101110DeC_silver.html

#119 jess on 11.10.10 at 3:12 pm

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/10/mortgage-abuse-story-hammers-assurant/

force-placed insurance – the practice in which creditors such as mortgage servicers buy an insurance policy to replace a homeowner’s lapsed one

Ties to Insurers Could Land Mortgage Servicers in More Trouble
Force-placed policies impose costs on both homeowner, investor

American Banker | Wednesday, November 10, 2010

http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/175_216/ties-to-insurers-servicers-in-trouble-1028474-1.html

#120 Paolo on 11.10.10 at 3:18 pm

That was a great evening last night in TO.
Pity only a drop in the GTA ocean could attend.

It was a great reality check on the times we are in and what we will be facing.

I don’t remember all the questions Garth asked about the state of RE in Toronto but the answers were obvious to everyone. Hilarious actually. So obvious…

Those questions should be front and center in the MSM.

All I ever hear is talk about equity, and affordability, and carrying costs, and time to buy, all the market price appreciation, people at work talking about how much their home went up in value, etc… all just nonsense when put into the context of our time and the next decade ahead.

I am fortunate to read this blog daily and keep my sanity.

Great work Garth. Great work fellow bloggers.

Someone needs to stand back from it all, take a good look, say what has to be said. It’s a dirty job but someone has to do it.

To quote Garth last night “it begins with real estate and ends with real estate”

#121 john on 11.10.10 at 3:31 pm

Garth, since your blog started in 2008 your % price corrections should be based on the prices of 2008.

#122 Rachelle on 11.10.10 at 3:38 pm

Hey, I was there blogging away, the article is finally up.

Are you saying I’m not media? It’s the new age ;-)

#123 Debtfree on 11.10.10 at 3:40 pm

B.C.’s is goofy from the top down. First they kill the tourism biz with the hst . Now they have killed the restaurant , pub and bar business with the new and improved drink driving laws . Now rich coleman is in the media lying about the very law that he himself wrote . He is now saying the impounding at the discretion of the peace officer . This is a lie. Mr Coleman should read the legislation he wrote: “215.46 (2) If a peace officer serves a person with a notice of a 30-day or 90-day driving prohibition under section 215.41 (3), the peace officer must cause the motor vehicle that the person was driving or operating at the time the notice was served to be taken to and impounded at a place directed by the peace officer.”

So if you come to B.C. don’t drink any alcohol . If you read this blog Rich I have a suggestion you should in the next law you write buy the police auto shredders that way you’ll solve the parking problems in van. Btw way you can find loads of parking in the pub/bar/restaurant parking lots for the most part they are empty. There should in the near future be loads of hospitality businesses for sale in B.C.. I know one guy in my city with a major franchise that told me the tax and new law is killing him. He also has a really nice house and acreage but for how long?

#124 dark sad person on 11.10.10 at 3:45 pm

hobbygirl on 11.10.10 at 12:03 am
Pretty happy group for a bunch of so-called doomsdayers!

I saw an interesting article in the Financial Post about China quietly making their Redback a threat to the Greenback. I would love to hear theories on how that would play out!

***********************

I think people who think China can take over the role of a reserve currency status-are not looking at reality—

China is not ready to assume that role-they still have an immature Banking system and the CNY is still not easily converted on world trading floors–People mistakenly assume that China’s massive USD reserves are all just sitting there and can be spent/dumped at the whim of the Chinese-which is not what “most” of those reserves are being held for–they are held to accommodate hot money flows-when needed-in fact-a lot of those reserves do not even belong to the Chinese Government-

When giant western Corporations in China start up big manufacturing firms (outsourced from here) they invest hundreds of billions of $ which-by China law-they must keep in China’s banks-

China knows this can and does happen and this was proven during the crash of 07–

When these company’s panicked they withdrew their deposits out of Chinese banks in a rush–China-by holding USD’s in reserve-were able to accommodate the hot money outflows-by drawing on the unconverted USD reserves–

If China had at first simply exchanged the USD’s and moved them into cash equivalents (Bonds)-they would not have been able to accommodate the demand-they would have had to sell/auction the equivalents before they could satisfy the demand-who knows what kayos this could have caused in the currency markets as $ demand would have gone through the roof-along with rising USD strength and-China would have lost big on the exchange rate differential–

By keeping USD’s in reserve (which are extremely liquid and convertible anywhere in the World) China was able to repatriate EUR/CAD/Yen or any other currency demand-without having to convert and create a currency upheaval-

So-when you look at all those massive build up of USD reserves in China-keep in mind-they actually do not all belong to China-they are kept because China’s banks cannot convert fast enough-their system is too fragile yet–

In no way-is China ready to become the World reserve currency-maybe-somewhere down the road they could be-but i wouldn’t bet on it-besides-the only way China can buy USD’s to manage the peg–is to print CNY–in other words-they’re as guilty as us of devaluing–

The most common mistake people make-is not realizing that for every US Treasury Bond China buys-they must print an equivalent amount of CNY to make the purchase–

We have yet to see China implode from their massive credit stimulus injections/housing and CRE and Industrial bubble-but stay tuned-because implode they will–

#125 TS on 11.10.10 at 3:57 pm

RE: collateral mortgages…. and why does everyone think that the banks are moving to this type of mortgage? Ya think that they are expecting real estate values to tank and they want to be protected? I’d say so! Collateral mortgages have been around for some time and most credit unions only offer this type of mortgage.

Some common sense needs to come back into the housing market….i.e. if you don’t have 25% down you have no business buying a house!

#126 BrianT on 11.10.10 at 4:00 pm

#110Greg-the naked body scanners you mentioned are also a major cancer risk. Re these scanners, they really aren’t about air travel-that is the cover story to get implementation and submission of the public. The money behind these (including Chertoff of Homeland Sec) are very ambitious-the plan is for these to eventually be everywhere-all public building access points,etc,etc. Lotsa moolah to be made and the schmuck taxpayer has to pay every penny to be radiated.

#127 Jake on 11.10.10 at 4:08 pm

#102

Have some patience. There is a reason the bubble has taken so long to burst. Extraordinary measures allowed it to pop up again after ’08 and the ultra low interest rates we have now have slowed the bust. Prices will be going down, but the rate of the decline will certainly fluctuate. Only realtor associations and mortgage brokers are predicting price increases anymore. These things take time.

#128 Mister Obvious on 11.10.10 at 4:09 pm

#102 Business Unusual….

“I for one am sickened and disappointed how long it is taking for this market to correct!

Anything you can say to comfort a sad, little bear?”

Maybe I can help. The market is correcting as we speak, young fella.

I had an attitude similar to yours after selling my Vancouver house last April:

“OK, closing day has passed: now let’s get this RE thing into the toilet so I can begin my heartless vulching”.

But it didn’t happen that way. Sales fell off a cliff for sure. But prices remained largely unchanged and new construction boomed. And it still booms in most parts of the city (even though the Millennium Water development looks like the victim of a radioactive holocaust).

The simple fact is this. From here on, and for perhaps a decade or so, Real Estate will be a very poor investment. It will have lost its appeal since people will slowly discover that it has simply stopped ‘going up forever’ which is the end of the justification for paying insane prices for it. But that does not mean it will fall like a stone either. Now, personally, I think it should plummet but ‘it’ doesn’t care what I think. For the over leveraged owners of today a slow decline of 30 percent is nearly as bad news as an immediate drop. You are stuck where you are if you can’t bring a check on closing day.

But for the vulchers it could possibly be a long wait. But at least you won’t have to ride the market down with all the greater fools.

#129 Ontario Landlords on 11.10.10 at 4:48 pm

It was great seeing Garth last night.

I’d like him to talk about rental properties in Ontario.

After all, Realtors are saying “if you can’t sell, just rent it out! It’s easy.”

Yeah right.

#130 bridgepigeon on 11.10.10 at 4:48 pm

I was so looking forward to attending last night. Unfortunately, I had a little too much to drink to drive out there. Fortunately the reason for my celebrating was I just signed the deal to sell our house. Could I get a high five from everyone while I do my lap around the bases?

#131 Sail1 on 11.10.10 at 5:10 pm

#127 Jake
There is a reason the bubble has taken so long to burst. Extraordinary measures allowed it to pop up again after ’08 and the ultra low interest rates we have now have slowed the bust.

The other reason is, that the market could actually be balancing. This bust we have all been waiting for will not happen, to the extent everyone is wishing for.

#132 Sail1 on 11.10.10 at 5:16 pm

#117 Crash Callaway

Hang in there blawg dawgs.
The ship is starting to turn.

Hey Crash, what is the first thing you are going to do when this big crash happens? Let me guess, move out of the basement.

#133 Sail1 on 11.10.10 at 5:27 pm

#101 What to buy?

I am curious to know what type of investments you recommend? Gold and other hard assets will be coming back down to earth shortly, bonds are a no go, equity investments are a crap shoot – what do you believe makes sense now?

Well, if all goes well and real estate is worth a fraction of its present value. In a couple of years you should be able to purchase a great investment property. Naaaa I’m just kidding, purchase some gold and silver, every one is doing it, why not jump on the bandwagon. But don’t forget cash is always good.

#134 Devil's Advocate on 11.10.10 at 5:56 pm

America faces a brand new type of credit crisis
Gregory White, Business Insider

The Fed is desperately trying to incent banks to lend more money by reducing the yield on cash and reducing risk.

But it’s clear now that lack of lending isn’t the problem: lack of desire for credit is.

Monday, two credit surveys were released by the Federal Reserve that told readers roughly the same thing: Americans now hate debt.

How did this happen? Only 3 years ago, Americans were in love with their credit cards, holding massive mortgages, and finding new ways to take out loans for reckless purchases.

Then, bang, the crisis hit and everyone is tapped out and retrenching.

While some may see this as a responsible turn by Americans, it is evidence of the paradox of thrift, where consumers prefer to pay down debt and save rather than spend.

http://tinyurl.com/32s2z7p

#135 I Don't Get It on 11.10.10 at 6:55 pm

I got dragged to this event by a friend who can’t stop raving about Garth’s books. Sure, some of the factoids were interesting but I couldn’t quite see how they related to me.

My family and I purchased a nice Oakville home backing a ravine over a dozen years ago for just shy of half a million and have been paying the variable rate mortgage with a few extra paydowns here and there. Now, neighbours are listing and selling their homes for $1.2m so I don’t see the problem.

Sure, lots of people have gloomy stories about ‘what if’ and how it supposedly will all end badly, but to be honest, I’ve been hearing that talk since we first moved in – and that was almost 13 years ago! I’m just glad that I didn’t listen to those stories back then!

You have posted several times under different names and with different stories. Your opinions may be valid, but you are a fraud. — Garth

#136 bob on 11.10.10 at 7:12 pm

I just had to bite my tongue when 1000 people show up to hear honest advice and the three stooges behind me think they’re wiser than Garth. Some fools really deserve what they’re gonna get. Great evening Garth

#137 Onemorething on 11.10.10 at 7:38 pm

#135 I Dont Get It!

You dont get and I guess you never will!

My friends in Burlington who sold and are now renting some beauties are loving it. Sitting on all the liquidity just waiting to buy the houses they are renting or similar.

Take profits, diversify for yield and watch the game unfold from the front row.

#138 ballingsford on 11.10.10 at 7:41 pm

I hope the US QE2 gets a good raking over the coals at the G20 summit. It’ll artificially inflate everything from Stocks to basic groceries. Your $20 will now be worth something like $8.

Then the collapse of everything occurs!!!

#139 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.10.10 at 7:41 pm


#25 Get Real — “He who stands alone is the strongest!” — Right on! Be true to one’s self and ignore the herd. They’re all running off a cliff anyway!

#115 MikeT — Hey Mike, still here! Had an idea yesterday morning, and still in deep psychobabbletherapy for it! That will teach me not to think too hard!

#124 dark sad person — “China is not ready to assume that role-they still have an immature Banking system and the CNY is still not easily converted on world trading floors . . .”

Noted, but there are some “what ifs” to be added. What if Russia, Japan, Iran, Iraq and China join forces and let the Ruble, Yen, Yuan or Remnibi be the reserve currency?

After all, the main reason the US invaded Iraq was that Sadaam had chosen to ditch the US$ and go with the Euro for their oil.

Clinton and dubya already knew that, and before he was elected, dubya had plans to dispose of Sadaam. knowing full well that many other countries would have followed Iraq’s lead.

#130 bridgepigeon — Way to go! High fives you betcha!
*
Snooker In Space Not entirely different from Pigs In Space!

Reason enough to avoid big pharma, try the natural foods / supplement alternatives instead.

On the other hand — three cheers for junk food!

Russia will have something to say about this.

When things tank with greater speed, it won’t only be homeowners who are left high and dry.

NAU First para. sums it up nicely. The SPP is probably kicking around somewhere.

#140 Devore on 11.10.10 at 7:49 pm

#124 dark sad person

besides-the only way China can buy USD’s to manage the peg–is to print CNY–in other words-they’re as guilty as us of devaluing–

I don’t know anyone saying otherwise. That’s the mechanic to peg a currency, like saying sky is blue.

But you have to look at this the proper way. China is only devaluing as much as the currency it is pegged to is devaluing, the USD. The issue is that the US is telling China to float CNY, while they go on a bender printing USD. As long as other currencies are either loosely or rigidly pegging to USD, US will never be able to competitively devalue to any significant extent.

They know it, everyone knows it.

It’s all just Kabuki theater. As long as US keeps demanding China revalue, they cannot do so.

They know it, everyone knows it.

As long as USD is the world reserve currency, their monetary policy is beyond reproach. The ball is in their court, it’s their game to lose.

They know it, everyone knows it. Except the gold bugs who think the dollar is about to collapse.

It’s just their way to create inflation, the effects of they are mostly immune from (or at least have been) by being able to export the pain to every country on the planet that buys any commodities denominated in USD (who need to inflate in kind, and absorb the excess dollars through their reserves).

#141 Bill Grable on 11.10.10 at 7:54 pm

Of course, it can never happen here.

Colorado. Heaven, Wild West, Big Sky – and this:

DENVER – Hundreds, if not thousands, of Coloradans eligible for food stamps are not receiving them on time because counties across the state cannot keep pace with incoming claims.

http://tinyurl.com/25hungg

Tough times not coming to La La Land, folks…?
Oh * Sorry I have to yell OVER THE BIKE LANE CONSTRUCTION FOR THE 3 BIKES THAT WILL USE HORNBY ST. EVERYDAY…

Ok. Sorry. I feel marginally better – BUT –

Now stand back and tell me that paying a K a sq/m for a bung in a Highrise junkyard in Yaletown is a sensible solution, to that wee complex thing called ” fiscal prudence”.

Oh, and with 5% down. * Collateralized now, too. OH BOY!

Cue up ‘Suicide is Expensive”.

#142 Tim on 11.10.10 at 8:05 pm

Vancouver to fall by only 20%? Then it will still be overvalued by 50%, basically, back where is was a few years ago.

#143 Brian1 on 11.10.10 at 8:11 pm

Ron Burgundy #68; My take on the subject was that the emerging markets will save us, but I think they should have taken over by now. It would all depend upon the American consumer. One must see what percentage of emerging market exports are dependent on America because they are preparing to completly shut off the taps.

#144 Brian1 on 11.10.10 at 8:13 pm

The present crisis started with housing but will end with the baby boomer consumer spender.

#145 Rural Rick on 11.10.10 at 8:15 pm

So when the construction mafia guy gets whacked for not making the nut. I am thinkingnreal estate is so done in Montreal. This ain’t a turf war, it is a not earning war.

#146 Jake on 11.10.10 at 8:39 pm

#133 Sail1,
Alberta prices have been dropping for months. We are no longer waiting for the price drops. They are happening. We are on our way to being “balanced,” but there is a lot more to go. Maybe it’s different where you live.

#147 Devore on 11.10.10 at 8:45 pm

#128 Mister Obvious

(even though the Millennium Water development looks like the victim of a radioactive holocaust).

It certainly looks like a neutron bomb went off there.

The simple fact is this. From here on, and for perhaps a decade or so, Real Estate will be a very poor investment. It will have lost its appeal since people will slowly discover that it has simply stopped ‘going up forever’ which is the end of the justification for paying insane prices for it.

This was just the topic of discussion at VCI yesterday. The “ownership premium”. Astute posters note that, everywhere else, there is an “ownership discount”, except in residential real estate (and also to much smaller extent commercial, but there are precious few greater fools to be found there).

So why do houses come with an ownership premium?

It can’t be the security, as a long term lease can be easily negotiated, at a steep discount even, without being tied to a risky illiquid asset.

It can’t be the ability to customize, as there is lots of inventory available to suit every taste, and ability to customize is usually part of any commercial lease, and doesn’t come with the anchor of operational maintenance and infrastructure sustainment.

It could be the expectation of capital appreciation, but that is only true of low-utilization properties, where densification is expected to occur, not in condos, which also command significant premiums. In these cases markets would very quickly price-in the expected future value, and that would be that, not an ever-escalating pricing bubble.

The home ownership premium seems to be driven by emotions. The belief that owning is significantly superior to renting, which justifies the escalating prices.

But even though people are stupid sheep, they are not that stupid. There is a big expectation of future appreciation. If there were not, the very same justifications made to support an ownership premium would quickly be applied to justify an ownership discount. I think it is the expectation of future appreciation that drives the ownership premium, and the longer a person’s time horizon (we’re gonna settle down here, start a family, retire and leave the house to the kids) the higher premium they are willing to pay, because “it always goes up”.

The momentum created by owners/occupiers is carrying to the owners/investors, who have no choice but to pay the same premium. That is why there are not so many successful real estate investors, because the premiums are not justified from an investment perspective, only from appreciation speculation perspective.

The momentum will eventually change direction, it always does. As owners/occupiers stop paying ownership premium, and rightfully may even demand ownership discount (to own a depreciating asset), valuations will revert to a level sustainable from investment fundamentals; cap rate, ROI, cash flow. This is a scenario where renting is more expensive than owning, for most people (unless your ownership horizon is 3-4 decades, along with some other criteria, like ability to purchase and finance). After all, investors who own and rent out their assets expect a profit, while spending a bundle to maintain those same depreciating assets. It doesn’t matter whether that is jack hammers, cars, or houses. Negative cash flow is not a sound business model.

Will we ever fall that low? (Which is to say, where renting is more expensive than owning, as it should be.) Who knows. But we do know there is already the next starry-eyed generation being groomed and indoctrinated, ready to step in and begin bidding up properties, with all new (and plenty old) reasons to justify the ownership premium again. And away we go into the next cycle. This is to be expected with real estate, and will continue as long as home ownership is favored with tax and fiscal policies, primarily through the existence of mortgages. No one will lend you any money with 5% down, for 35 years, at rock bottom rates, with questionable collateral, just to purchae a depreciating asset. This is only possible through deliberate policy to inflate prices of a certain asset class. If people could only finance a house by buying it with 50% down, 5 year amortization, and market rates (ie, a business loan), there would be no ownership premium.

The key to making money in this market, should you wish to, is to be able to participate in it counter-cyclically. In other words, be contrarian. Some luck into it, just by pure chance of timing, others analyze and make investment decisions. You know there will be bubbles, because residential real estate is easily financed, and there will be busts, because eventually limits to service debt will be reached.

#148 TS on 11.10.10 at 8:47 pm

This link will take you to some breaking news about a report that was tabled in the US regarding actions that the US government needs to take to deal with their out of control deficit…. it will be interesting to see if the politicians in the US will have the GUTS to do what is necessary!

Some of the recommendations in the report include:
1) raising taxes
2) eliminating the mortgage deduction income tax write-off for homeowners
3) scaling back Medicare and Social Security
4) cutting defense spending
5) freezing military salaries

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-10/deficit-reduction-panel-s-plan-would-seek-to-cut-social-security-medicare.html

#149 Burnaby Boy on 11.10.10 at 8:52 pm

I am starting to wonder if the contributor #13 “TheBestPlaceonEarth” who constantly refers to Vancouver as “a piece of Heaven – Vancouver the most Blessed Place on Earth” is the old street preacher who would rant and rave about Vancouver, The City of Prophecy and explain the “true” meaning of BC’s flag and the symbols of the City Hall to all those whom he could collar.

#150 Increasing that 1% on 11.10.10 at 8:52 pm

Well, I’m in the back corner of the corner that’s not shown.
Highway was jammed, got there just in time to almost collide with you Garth, as I looked for a seat -sorry ’bout that. Then I thought maybe that was the time for my complimentary hug I never got. Missed Bandit, and never saw a Hummer in the parking lot to check out if he was in there.
Now that was a presentation- powerpoint, podium, large crowd, young and old. Lots of chuckles throughout, good pace. Nice setting.
Besides giving all a perspective of the Real Estate market, you showed how many likely don’t know important details as to what they’re doing in relation to potential investments, hence the availability of your and your partner’s financial services, if we are interested.

The Hotel, or someone, made their money from that flat rate for parking.

Personally, looked forward to a longer question period. Didn’t know if you wanted people to come up after, if they still had questions or not, as there was a bunch of people that did- which I’m sure you expected- but I didn’t want to add to that if you were planning on leaving.

I hadn’t filled my card out yet when they were collected, then couldn’t find anywhere or person to leave it with at the end.
Oh, yes, and a little coffee/tea set-up before (unless I missed it) and after could have done well.

#151 Devil's Advocate on 11.10.10 at 8:55 pm

#25 Get Real on 11.10.10 at 3:00 am
He who stands alone is the strongest !

“A dwarf standing on the shoulders of a giant may see farther than the giant himself” (Didacus Stella, circa AD60 – and, as a matter of interest, abridged on the edge of an English £2coin)

#152 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.10.10 at 8:56 pm


Confirmed US Navy was testing missiles the other night. PDF file — may have to reload current page. “. . . most importantly, why would China do such a stupid thing? They have the upper hand at the G20. They do not need to show us a missile; they can destroy the United States with the IOUs. Provoking a war with China plays to the US’ advantage as it gives the US Government an excuse not to honor their debts.” wrh.com.

3:35 clip The elite loves this, as there is no attention being payed to them at all.

Moving To The Dark Side “Canadians need to understand that when the US falls, the parasites who destroyed this nation in service to Israel will not hesitate to hop across the border and loot Canada. Please, learn from our mistakes!” wrh.com. Didn’t Harper once say “. . . you won’t even recognize Canada by the time I’m finished with it”?

2:07 clip Things happen in threes. The first two are history; the third is about to go the same route.

Same as France and others. Raise retirement age.

3:49 clip US – China currency war.

US (and Cdn.) Housing Downturn gathers speed when resets hit.

1:46 clip Truth in (political) advert9s9jg? “If you don’t enjoy this one, then you’re even more cynical than I am.”

Financial War “What is of very sobering concern in this situation is how quickly currency wars can actually devolve into literal shooting wars.” wrh.com.

World Free Trade “Bashing China over its trade surplus is not an answer here. One has to wonder, with two wars going badly for the US in Iraq and Afghanistan, coupled with QE2 well underway, how long the US dollar can possibly remain the world’s reserve currency.” wrh.com.

0:58 clip Bernanke has a plan.
Student Debts “”We did it; we got them squirming on the hook for the rest of their lives! I love slavery when the slaves don’t know they are slaves! BWAH HAA HAA HAA HAA!” — A. Banker (a.k.a. the elite). wrh.com.

Catastrophe “Nuclear war is not front page news, compared to the H1N1 or the routine Al Qaeda terror alerts.”
Retail Shakeup – down picking up speed in California.
3:14 clip FEMA camps, martial law accompanied by Louis Armstrong’s “What A Wonderful World”.

#153 Leanne on 11.10.10 at 9:14 pm

#78 Dorf: “Next time sit beside me, and I’ll convince you and your girlfriend to come for drinks instead.”

It didn’t work for the realtor and it won’t work for a man named Dorf. Maybe you should sit beside the realtor next time and go for drinks afterwards. Then who knows what might happen next? You could find yourself buying an overpriced condo in downtown Toronto.

#154 Guy_in_Regina on 11.10.10 at 9:26 pm

#6 Wise Guy,

You mistook Mark Carney for Barak Obama?!

Please see an optometrist and change your moniker.

#155 45north on 11.10.10 at 9:36 pm

Causaline: I’ve started writing a program to do detailed analysis of those 1 trillion mortgage assets. However, I was stopped short by the unavailablility of the data.

me too, I would be very interested

MKUltra: talking about the 5 big banks: Their collective minds are smarter than you on your best & luckiest day of your life.

which is why they read this blog

In the US we have seen moratorium after moratorium on foreclosures. Two presidents have put in place mortgage modification programs which have both failed. George W Bush put in place a program which after two years resulted in helping fewer than a thousand families. Barack Obama put in place a program which has helped more but has confused and alienated as many as were helped.

My plan would offer a housing subsidy of $1000/month for 12 months to anyone who had lost his house because of foreclosure. He would be paid once the bank filled a claim to CMHC.

#156 Joseph on 11.10.10 at 9:39 pm

#40 Ben…

You’re host Garth regularly writes about talking to this agent or that agent, so I’m not sure what you mean when you say “no one values realtors anymore”, clearly Garth does.

A FSBO neighbour of mine just sold their house, saw the sold sticker on the FSBO sign, thought wow you don’t see a succesfull FSBO sale very often.

Two weeks later their is a new for sale sign through an agent, different sellers… I’m looking forward to seeing how much the FSBO’s got hosed on their sale. If the new buyers are able to pay realtor fees and make a profit they must have got it for at least $40,000 below market.

Are you telling me that a Realtor wouldn’t have created value for those first sellers??

#157 Timing is Everything on 11.10.10 at 10:32 pm

#147 Devore said – “This is only possible through deliberate policy to inflate prices of a certain asset class. If….”

….wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

One must be adept at adapting. The rules can be changed at anytime.

Agreed, a bit o’ luck doesn’t hurt either.

#158 Got A Watch on 11.10.10 at 10:57 pm

Follow up comment to my comment above:

Canada is not the USA, our economy is a bit more sound. But the Zillow report I linked to there is a worst case scenario for the US, and it is happening right now, it’s not theoretical.

Real estate may fall 70%-80% from the peak in the US most bubbliciious areas, and that is the “hypothetical worst case” in living color. Those areas are not the whole country, America is a big place. But when you have what are usually considered the “economic driver States” like California, plus other large population States like Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Nevada etc all in dire straits – it becomes very difficult for the nation as whole to “recover”.

Some States with small populations and more resource based (agricultural, mining, etc) economies like North and South Dakota, Wyoming etc are not doing so badly. But they can’t carry the national economy on their own. Texas for instance did not see much of a real estate bubble, compared to the rest. Rust-belt States are the worst off, Michigan and Ohio etc, they have seen most of their good paying jobs move to China, and when there are no jobs, the real estate market can’t hold up.

It is the large urban areas who go the craziest for real estate, maybe it’s the population density makes them crazy, like rats in a cage. And there are so many people in those cities, they can take the whole nation down with them when they take on too much credit in an unwise fashion.

I made the prediction in comments at Mish’s Blog years ago that real estate would bottom in the USA by about 2014, or 7-8 years after it peaked. That is still probably correct, but even I did not imagine how far down the bottom would be.

I still hear idiots on TV talking about “recovery”. But a real recovery, for real estate, or the economy, does not happen until the bottom has finally been found. And that actual bottom, when contraction stops, and things level out for a while, has not been seen yet. When it does come along, no one thinks it’s the bottom, confidence has been shattered by that point. In Canada, we are still about 2-3 year behind the US experience, as always.

———————————————————–

Brian T – thanks for replying to my comments, I should have acknowledged it, but time as always was short.

———————————————————–

dark sad person – If you can lose the dashes between words, your comments would be easier to read, you make it more difficult than it has to be with those.

I was harsh in my retaliatory comment to you before, but I don’t see ‘daystar’ commenting much, and he made many great comments. Don’t drive away the good people by going overboard in attacking them. I will promise to do better, if you will.

———————————————————

They call it the “tragedy of the commons”, when there are so many nonsense and just plain wrong comments that the ones who do make sense get lost in the noise.

Garth has created a great Blog here, where many from across our great country can gather to state their opinions. But we all have to do our part, by not posting nonsensical crap that has no rational basis to be read by others. Blawg Dawgs, I salute you. The internet can be a great thing if we allow it to be so. If many chip in, we can all learn something from so many points of view.

Thanks again to Garth, a great Canadian, for allowing us the opportunity.

#159 Taxpayer like everyone else on 11.10.10 at 11:42 pm

45north @155 has said:

“My plan would offer a housing subsidy of $1000/month
for 12 months to anyone who had lost his house because
of foreclosure. He would be paid once the bank filled a
claim to CMHC.”

Oh great. Not only would this taxpayer (with NO mortage
thank you) pay for CMHC, now I’m paying for the deadbeat who didnt live up to their end of the deal. Pure
genius…..

#160 dark sad person on 11.11.10 at 12:09 am

140 Devore on 11.10.10 at 7:49 pm

#124 dark sad person

besides-the only way China can buy USD’s to manage the peg–is to print CNY–in other words-they’re as guilty as us of devaluing–

I don’t know anyone saying otherwise. That’s the mechanic to peg a currency, like saying sky is blue.

******************
Maybe its simple for you to understand but what about the people who don’t understand and “wish” to learn?
Should we just talk over their heads?
The mechanics/basics-are bloody important for those trying to understand the big picture-

*********************

But you have to look at this the proper way. China is only devaluing as much as the currency it is pegged to is devaluing, the USD.

*********************

That is the way i was looking at it and also the way i answered it–
Point being–what advantage to going to the CNY as a reserve currency?
Like you say–they devalue on a relative bases so what out of that-is advantageous to the CNY becoming a reserve currency?
That was the point being made to the post that i replied to-
Why would anyone adopt the CNY over the USD as the “world reserve currency” -when there’s no advantage to doing it?
Countries already hold CNY and in fact have a balance weighting of most all world currencies and some even hold gold in their vaults (:
If the USD blows up-we’re all hooped-
I don’t expect it will blow up-at least not anytime soon-but i do know-somewhere ahead of us-
All Fiat will eventually go to its intrinsic value = zero-
But for now-i think the USD will fly-maybe into the 90’s
but that spike will likely happen in a flight to safety-

*********************

#139 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.10.10 at 7:41 pm

#124 dark sad person — “China is not ready to assume that role-they still have an immature Banking system and the CNY is still not easily converted on world trading floors . . .”

Noted, but there are some “what ifs” to be added. What if Russia, Japan, Iran, Iraq and China join forces and let the Ruble, Yen, Yuan or Remnibi be the reserve currency?

After all, the main reason the US invaded Iraq was that Sadaam had chosen to ditch the US$ and go with the Euro for their oil.

Clinton and dubya already knew that, and before he was elected, dubya had plans to dispose of Sadaam. knowing full well that many other countries would have followed Iraq’s lead.

****************
What if Russia, Japan, Iran, Iraq and China join forces and let the Ruble, Yen, Yuan or Remnibi be the reserve currency?
*****************************

We need to weigh the currencies against the USD based on underlying capital markets and confidence in the Governments to have the collateral to back the note-

Russia for example–
**********
The panelists explained that the global economic crisis had a strong negative effect on the Russian economy in 2009:

* GDP contracted by 8 percent;

* Industrial production tumbled by nearly 11 percent;

* Exports collapsed by 36 percent; and

All panelists agreed that key concerns for the Russian economy going forward include high levels of corruption, highly inefficient state corporations, and future problems with infrastructure and human capital skills.

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/?fa=eventDetail&id=2895

***************
Russia has its good points and bad-
If Oil and Gold stay strong-the Ruble should be alright–but-
it has no real advantage over the US and although it’s hard to match the corruption of the US-
Russia comes as close as anyone–

****************************
Japan is in grave danger of a collapse in the future-barring a turnaround in world economic conditions-
They have a shrinking population-a collapse in manufacturing and exports and will have no way to pay its national debt off-which is at +200% of debt to GDP-

****************************
The Euro banks lent out billions to the Baltic states-Hungary for example-the Fornt has collapsed and there is no way to pay back the Euro banks so trouble lies ahead when the defaults hit in force-
********************
The Swiss lent billions to the PIIGS and now the Franc is gaining against the EUR and with the Swiss printing and buying EUR to try and bring it down-it just ain’t working-so Swiss banks will take a hit when the defaults pile up-

********************
Bottom line is-everyone wants a weak currency but that is impossible-in a floating currency system-
So switching reserve currencies at this point-i doubt anything would change-they would all continue to competitively devalue and the big one is-“perception” of safety-believe it or not-the US still holds that spot–
Doesn’t mean it can’t change and if it did-I think Gold would be the beneficiary–

**********************************
The part about Iraq and Oil and the $—
I agree with what you say and why–
Which brings me to the main reason i don’t think the USD will lose its seat for awhile–
They still have the biggest guns–

#161 GregW, Oakville on 11.11.10 at 1:25 am

Hi #115 MikeT, I second that, re: Nostradamus, where are you?(especially the links).
Don’t leave us!
Hi Nostradamus, I hope you had a nice day, hopefully out side, instead of blogging today.

#162 GregW, Oakville on 11.11.10 at 1:56 am

Hi #139 Nostradamus, glade you’re still with us!
re: try the natural foods / supplement alternatives instead.

Do you know about “Codex Alimentarius”?
The informative stuff can be see on youtube. Scarry!

It seems to be here, We are NOT in good hands I fear!

Codex Alimentarius in Canada – Food and Nutrition – Health Canada
Introduction to the Codex Alimentarius Commission, which oversees and develops international food standards, and Canada’s participation as a member government
hc-sc.gc.ca/fn-an/intactivit/codex/index-eng.php · Cached page

I think you pointed this important fact out.
Do the MP’s know???

“If accepted [S 510] would preclude the public’s right to grow, own, trade, transport, share, feed and eat each and every food that nature makes. It will become the most offensive authority against the cultivation, trade and consumption of food and agricultural products of one’s choice. It will be unconstitutional and contrary to natural law or, if you like, the will of God.” ~Dr. Shiv Chopra, Canada Health whistleblower
http://foodfreedom.wordpress.com/2010/04/24/s-510-is-hissing-in-the-grass/

#163 dark sad person on 11.11.10 at 2:06 am

dark sad person – If you can lose the dashes between words, your comments would be easier to read, you make it more difficult than it has to be with those.

I was harsh in my retaliatory comment to you before, but I don’t see ‘daystar’ commenting much, and he made many great comments. Don’t drive away the good people by going overboard in attacking them. I will promise to do better, if you will.

*************************
I think it might be easier and more convenient if you just skipped by my posts-
I don’t take orders well-

Daystar is not posting much?
What does that have to do with me?
I didn’t say anything that would have “drove him away”
You just didn’t get the meaning of the reference to the famous people i refereed to in jest-about blog names-

Daystar came on here advising people to sell Gold because the top was in-
I questioned his call because he said only that he could “see” the top was in and maybe it is-but i think when people “advise” buying or selling it should hinge on more then bullshit-

Can you imagine the upheaval if i came on here and advised people to buy Gold?
Would i not be subject to board criticism-if not outright banned?
Would you call that “attacking” me-or would you call that questioning my motives-without anything to back my claim-other that i can “see” this is what people should do?
What if someone did sell or buy on what people advise and the adviser was wrong?

btw–where was your policing all the times i was outright called an idiot and a fool and all the other name calling that went on-because i simply had a difference of opinion?

#164 Got A Watch on 11.11.10 at 10:48 am

Whatever DSP you sound awfully thin skinned and whiny there. I could deconstruct your comment point by point there, but who cares.

There were those who attacked you, but with your attitude, I can see why. I skim those comments, and if they sound clueless, I would not bother replying if I were you. You seem to have a deep seated need to have the last word on everything and to correct everyone else. If you want to see the “Blog police” here, try looking in the mirror.

I didn’t say you couldn’t post or whatever, I just questioned the tone. “I don’t take orders well” – yeah, obviously, nor are you able to accept an apology with any grace at all. I can see why Garth gave you the name, it’s quite correct.

Have a nice day anyway. If that is possible.

#165 GTA 001 on 11.11.10 at 7:10 pm

Garth:

When I heard that you were doing a seminar in Toronto I was considering going to the Nov 1 presentation, but when a second presentation would be held for the blog dogs I knew I could not miss it.

The seminar on the housing bubble in Canada and investment strategies that you presented Tuesday night was absolutely fantastic. It was entertaining, funny, serious and at times down right scary especially with the economic indicators you presented to the audience.

What was interesting is that 1000 people showed up to hear your message. This to me signals a turning point in the quest to get your message to as many Canadians as possible. I know from previous responces to your blog posts that the blog dogs were begging you to come to Toronto to speak. If your schedule did not permit you to come to speak to us I quite understand. your seminars are very popular in Western Canada.

Anyways I want to thank you for inviting your internet community to hear the seminar. I would not miss it for the world.

It was also a pleasure to meet you in person. I asked you a question about how it felt that your seminar on Tuesday was filled to capacity. The question did not come out right or properly. I should have asked that because you seminar was full are people beginning to see the fault lines in the economy, the drop in housing sales (reported to be 24% today by CP24 in the GTA), the lack of capital spending or hiring by corporations, structural unemployment,inflation in basic necessities, rising taxes and utility bills etc. It seems to me that people are looking for strategies to protect themselves from the approaching economic storm.

You told the audience that many of us who are trying to warn our families, friends and work collegues are met with considerable resistance. My brother and I have almost given up trying to talk to people about an impending residential and commercial real estate decline. Many of these people are still drinking the Kool Aid provided by the real estate, banking and political institutions. They always tell me that its different here and that the banks are safe and the realty market will decline slightly and rebound. Did you hear that as of Nov 1 the TD Bank is offering “collaterized mortgages” That means you cant transfer it to another financial institution, you are liable for fees and penalties even after they can lend you up to 125% of the value of the property and you probably cant declare bankruptcy!. This situation (reported by a blog dog on this forum) has made some TD and other bank’s loan officers furious to the point of speaking out against in anoymity. This is the kind of fraudlent financial instruments we have to stop the banks from issuing!!!!!As you have consistently said this housing bubble WONT END WELL!After seeing your presentation I will still get the message out.

I find the attitude of the MSM hypocritical when Macleans put out a lengthy and detailed article backed by experts about their fears about the $1.4 trillion personal debt that Canadians have amassed and how higher interest rates could lead to many being underwater or forclosed just like what is happening in Quebec. You have been presenting this information before the Sept 15, 2008 economic crisis!!!The fact that you have been banned by BNN, CTV and possibly CBC shows that TPTB dont want bad news to hurt F and H plan to keep the bubble financed by cheap money to pop costing them a majority government.

You remind me of Peter Schiff who wrote the book Crash Proof in the US in 2002. He talked about the growth of the US Federal Debt; the growth of the $50 trillion unfunded liabilities; the fact that many companies were paying no dividens-no growth in sales/gambling investments in the NYSE and OTCDerivatives market and the FIRE industries and that real estate would decline by 50%. Sounds like some one we know.

The MSM, TREB and other real estate organizations may choose to ban you, but sooner or later probably in the next 6-12 months they can ignore the facts. Do not give up or quit. Your seminars are going viral and people are attending them in record numbers. The message is getting through. People are looking for investment advise to protect themselves and get through the economic and social turmoil from now till 2015.

I hope you find time to do more seminars in Toronto in 2011, they will ne badly needed if the economy sputters next year. One idea I would like to float is to talk to Nula Beck who wrote changing Gears in 1993 on the emergence of the 4 industries powering the new economy. this would give people an idea to find new jobs and get training for them.

Until then Keep up the Fight Never give up Never Quit

Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year 2011