Visigoths

When I dropped off my truck to have the snows installed Jenny looked up and had a few interesting words to say. The morning after the municipal election. The mayor just had his ass kicked.

Now, understand that the Bunker sits in a semi-rural area (better to dig the missiles in and divert watercourses) outside of Toronto, where most people commute to jobs in surrounding cities. There are currently scores of million-dollar spreads for sale, lots of Beemers and Benz doing a morning crawl towards the distant skyline and the mistakable patina and veneer of upper middle classness.

Down the blacktop in godless Toronto, citizens had just eschewed a former provincial deputy premier and seasoned politician and elected as mayor a blustery, untelegenic, homophobic local councilor with a dodgy past who promised to slash government and Javex city hall. It was a right-wing sweep and a repudiation of political insiders. More ass kicking.

But here in the sleepy town where my local garage sits, Main Street was buzzing with the same anti-elite sentiment. “It’s the economy,” Jenny said, barely glancing up from her keyboard. “You would not believe the number of people here who don’t have jobs.”

I handed over my key.

“No jobs,” she said, “no hope. People are pissed.”

How much hurt will become evident Tuesday night when they count votes in the US mid-term elections. While it’ll be a referendum on two years of Obama, it’s really a verdict on the economy. With 17% actual unemployment, record personal and public debt, deflation and house prices in a four-year slide, millions of voters have decided that Keynesian economics is a crock. To them, trillions in government borrowing and spending bailed out banks,  but did nothing for homeowners, created no lasting jobs and ballooned the size and cost of government, guaranteeing a generation or two of higher taxes.

This gassed the TEA Party movement, resurrected Sarah Palin, discredited the political class and turned a transformational figure into a potential one-term president. The economic consequences of this are unknown, but likely terrifying. If what attracted over-taxed and under-employed Torontonians to a slash-and-burn mayor grips the USA, squirrels everywhere need to take cover. After all, if spending a few trillion trying to stimulate things didn’t work, imagine what turning off the tap will do. Or protectionism. Or letting banks and the real estate market fail.

The consequences of that would be a much weaker America, and a Canada in which you can be assured the average house price in 2013 would be a fraction of what it was in 2010. Our currency would be worth a buck and a half US and the federal deficit out of control. This blog would be taken over by bullion Huns and Visigoths, resplendent in their iron helmets, broadswording off the limbs of anyone without enough gold to save their pathetic metrosexual skins.

But, maybe I’m exaggerating a little.  A little.

The current political climate is largely toxic, and as people look for some new solution they risk a lot. Of course, the US is more at play than are we – but the emergence of the none-of-the-above movement here needs to be taken seriously. What people at my garage and on Main Street know is that they’ve largely been lied to over the past 18 months. The recession did not end. Jobs are not coming back. Households are in a money vice. And now negative real estate stories are in the media every day. Hence, the assault on the middle class is under way, and that makes ‘em angry.

If my predictions are half right, this gets worse. And most people will walk right into the middle of the storm they should have seen coming months ago. No telling what they’ll do then.

Fortunately for us, most folks don’t read this blog. If they did, they’d know what to do. Sell real estate at the top. Move into balanced financial assets. Avoid tax. Buy things that pay income. Be liquid.

If everyone did it, there’d be no more greater fools. And, damn, we need them now.

198 comments ↓

#1 Debt's Dark Embrace on 10.26.10 at 8:51 pm

If my predictions are half right, this gets worse. And most people will walk right into the middle of the storm they should have seen coming months ago. No telling what they’ll do then
…………………………………………………………………………..
We will do absolutely nothing. It’s the Canadian way.

#2 Moneta on 10.26.10 at 8:58 pm

“No jobs,” she said, “no hope. People are pissed.”
———
And they haven’t seen anything yet.

#3 Kitchener1 on 10.26.10 at 9:07 pm

Ford’s victory in Toronto is a huge one politically. The margin of his win alone 47% really shows you were people are at in their views.

Watch the next few political elections very closely. It very well may be a game changer.

Same tune is true in Kitchener, factories gone, jobs gone and lots of people without employment and yes people are also pissed out here.

All that economic stimuls offered a lot of hope to the middle class, it was the hail mary football pass in the last quarter with the clock ticking down, now its evident that the pass was indeed fumbled.

Just look at F and Carney over the last 18 months, their statements went from:

Canada is awesome etc… best finance system of all G20, more gloating and smiles…..

to

Steady economic rebound, slightly lower growth numbers then forcast but a solid recovery none the less

to

Things are getting kind of dicey, but well get thru this

to

His last statement, SHTF, get your ammo and seeds and Get R done statement were guy looked like he just saw some very scary sh*t

Now, if the loss of confidence of the finance minister is an economic gauge then be very worried cause if the guy who is supposed to be selling Canada and its virtues is scared into wetting his depends, then we should all be worried.

#4 Basil Fawlty on 10.26.10 at 9:20 pm

The US is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Without quantitative easing the economic system goes down hard and fast. With quantitative easing the system muddles along and then crashes harder and faster.
Call me a doomer if it floats your boat, however realist is preferred.

#5 Debt Lover on 10.26.10 at 9:22 pm

Contrary to popular bear opinions, the month of October is seeing a resurgence in RE activity in Vancouver.

Daily sell list ratios are now over 100%, signaling that the much hoped for crash has never materialized, and may be put on the backburner for another decade.

As everyone has said before, Vancouver really is different. No crash after the Olympics; no crash after the new April mortgage rules that were designed to pop the Vancouver and Toronto markets; no crash after the HST; no crash after the (ahem) “massive” increase in interest rates; no crash period.

Everyone likes to cite price to income ratios as being astronomical, but the stats don’t capture the fact that the majority of homes in Vancouver have mortgage helpers. Buyers don’t even consider purchasing without the mortgage helper – both here and in the burbs.

In fact, I challenge anyone to point out another jurisdication in Canada where mortgage helpers are the norm, and where there is huge pressure on local governments to legalize secondary suites.

Face it, after two years of emergency interest rates, they are not going anywhere quick. Stock markets are moving, with all the cheap cash floating around. No black swan events on the horizon my house poor bears.

#6 Sail1 on 10.26.10 at 9:28 pm

That’s why, in theory, home prices could fall more rapidly, which in turn would cause a sharper slowdown in consumer spending because so many Canadians’ actual and perceived wealth is tied up in their homes.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/carney-stays-positive-about-housing/article1773964/

#7 Tim on 10.26.10 at 9:28 pm

Come on Garth, how much worse could it get than Stephen Harper? Seriously, what has he done for Canadians- other than racking a 50 plus billion dollar deficit and cutting funding for the arts, stacking the senate with his right-wing pals, diminished Canada’s role in the international arena, weakend parliamentary democracy, lied to Canadians about making govt more accountable, appointing his non elected campaign manager to oversee billions worth of public works contracts, prorogued parliament, scrapping the long form census… need I go on? I though that if the Americans were dumb enough to re-elect Bush, then they deserved what they got. If Harper is re elected then maybe we’re not much swifter than the yanks- even though the Republicans are outspending the Democrats in the election by a country mile

#8 boomer62 on 10.26.10 at 9:33 pm

Last night, we were distracted by all the election nonsense.

We should have been paying our respects to the late and great Mr. Ted Rogers.

#9 Toronto Guy on 10.26.10 at 9:47 pm

I think Rob Ford promised to abolish the land transfer in aroud 2012. This could put a dent in Toronto real estate sales as new buyers may just wait to avoid paying the tax.

Any opinions on this?

#10 Jeff Smith on 10.26.10 at 9:49 pm

>#7 Tim on 10.26.10 at 9:28 pm
>Come on Garth, how much worse could it get than
>Stephen Harper? Seriously, what has he done for
>Canadians- other than racking a 50 plus billion dollar
>deficit and cutting funding for the arts, stacking the senate with his right-wing pals, diminished Canada’s role in the international arena, weakend parliamentary democracy,
>lied to Canadians about making govt more accountable,
appointing his non elected campaign manager to oversee
>billions worth of public works contracts, prorogued parliament, scrapping the long form census… need I go
>on? I though that if the Americans were dumb enough to re-elect Bush, then they deserved what they got. If Harper
>is re elected then maybe we’re not much swifter than the yanks- even though the Republicans are outspending the
>Democrats in the election by a country mile

He threw a pretty cool G20 party though, it shows the world how great a country we are living in. Nice pageantry.

#11 ottawa pete on 10.26.10 at 9:53 pm

Just noticed a microburst of new listings here in Kanata/Stittsville this past week. Anyone have any Ottawa broker gossip?

#12 nonplused on 10.26.10 at 10:01 pm

If everyone did it, there’d be no more greater fools. And, damn, we need them now.
————–
They say the only thing that is in infinate supply is human stupidity. Unfortunately that doesn’t mean the supply of stupid people is likewise infinate, so we are going to run out of greater fools eventually. That’s why all bubbles eventually pop. Sooner or later there is no one left to bid. Credit goes a long way to increasing the amount of damage one fool can do, but without rising prices even that has a limit.

#13 D from London, ON on 10.26.10 at 10:02 pm

Here in London we had an upset of a 10-year sitting mayor by a has-been former councillor, MPP, MP and Minister in charge of stuff (I forget the boring details). The challenger ran on one plank – a promise not to raise property taxes by even 1 cent for the next 4 years. Oh, and that we should throw the bums out.

I look around SWO and it seems to me, with the exception of Windsor and Sarnia where much-beloved incumbents kept their mayorship (is that a word?), that the majority of incumbent mayors were tossed out. There seems to be a sense around here that the current political class has failed us completely (same as your ‘repudiation of political insiders’) and, like Jenny said “it’s jobs”. Where are they?

Like you and the curious case of Mr. Ford, I wonder if this city is going to wake up with a hangover of regrets once everyone realizes what “no tax increases” means in terms of cuts to services etc.

#14 Eviee1973 on 10.26.10 at 10:10 pm

Have noticed a record amount of open house signs here in Halifax area last Sunday, did look in the paper and online afterwards, none were priced to sell though.

#15 dmc on 10.26.10 at 10:12 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CwpdGyIY2fQ

there’s some sobering viewing

#16 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.26.10 at 10:13 pm

@ #5 Debt Lover:

“Daily sell list ratios are now over 100%, signaling that the much hoped for crash has never materialized, and may be put on the backburner for another decade.”

FACT CHECK: this was *one day* for the entire month of October, so your statement is a joke.

http://vancouvercondo.info/forum/topic/october-data

Current projections are for the 2nd worst October in 10 years (2008 was the middle of the financial meltdown), and sales to be -35% of last year.

#17 boomer62 on 10.26.10 at 10:15 pm

#11 ottawa pete

The broker gossip goes something like….about half the brokers think its a good time to sell and the other half think its a good time to buy…what do you think?

#18 BrianT on 10.26.10 at 10:17 pm

The attacks on Ford by the entire political elite boosted his campaign enormously. IMO the level of contempt and distrust of the political (and business, as at this point it is basically the same thing) elite hasn’t been this high in a very long time. It is no wonder they are intent on Internet control-it is like a big flashlight searching out all the cockroaches-and they are multiplying by the minute.

#19 Devore on 10.26.10 at 10:18 pm

#5 Debt Lover

Contrary to popular bear opinions, the month of October is seeing a resurgence in RE activity in Vancouver.

Daily sell list ratios are now over 100%, signaling that the much hoped for crash has never materialized, and may be put on the backburner for another decade.

Oh, one, ONE, sell day in the whole year is now bullish?

With ANY market, if you track it daily and try to explain and account for every tiny little movement, you will go insane. All that matters is the trend. There’s always volatility.

#20 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.26.10 at 10:19 pm

It’s not just TD that is targeting mortgage borrowers on the fringe… check this out:

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2010/10/credit-assist-from-home-trust.html

Looks like Canadian sub-prime is back… and – some of these programs are not even CMHC insured!

#21 604genX on 10.26.10 at 10:24 pm

Hey Debt Lover #5 – you’re dreaming….and lying. The sell-list ratio has not been over 100% for a single day this month in the Greater Vancouver area. Month to date suggests 60% – 25 new listings for every 15 sales.

The number of transactions has collapsed. Brokers are pale with fear and saying anything to fluff up the market. The same “sold” signs are being left on properties for months to create an illusion of activity.

Volume is the first pillar to fall. Prices will follow as owners realize nothing will move til March 2011 and listings climb….

Sales = 2,358 (-36.4% YoY, +6.2% MoM)
—> this would be 2nd lowest in last 10 yrs (only the melt-down of 2008 is worse)

New Listings = 3,915

Percentage of sold units to new listings for month = 60.2%

#22 Willy H on 10.26.10 at 10:25 pm

What people … know is that they’ve largely been lied …. The recession did not end. Jobs are not coming back. Households are in a money vice. And now negative real estate stories are in the media every day. Hence, the assault on the middle class is under way, and that makes ‘em angry.
– – – – – –
Interesting.

Who are they going to punish?

In Ontario, the Liberals have had two terms and if the normal political cycle is still in place the Tories will be elected* in the not to distant future. This should be of no surprise to anyone, even this early on. This is just electorate swinging back and forth between parties, as they always have. The impact of negative RE might just increase the size of the Tory majority.

* barring some absolutely stupid mistake.

Are the Federal Tories going to take a hit whenever we head to the polls?

I am curious what other posters think of the potential political fallout from a RE melt in Canada?

#23 R on 10.26.10 at 10:27 pm

Ford got in because he told people what they desperately want to hear, that everything will continue on as it has in the past, once we get rid of the pencil budgets at city hall, and get the streetcars, cyclists and pedestrians out of the way of cars.

#24 MP on 10.26.10 at 10:29 pm

Stop, collaborate and listen. We will be fine. We can all buy flipped houses from Vanilla Ice!

http://news.yahoo.com/video/entertainment-15749636/the-vanilla-ice-project-22449352

#25 Mike B formerly just Mike on 10.26.10 at 10:30 pm

“former provincial deputy premier and seasoned politician”
Too funny… yes lots of experience at spending tax payers dough and then dodging the bullet in the e-health aka giving huge contracts with no tendering. Yeah we need more guys like that.

#26 Bill on 10.26.10 at 10:30 pm

People pissed. Right on the word.
First, Torontonians are disgusted by the DM (David M) and anyone who he endorsed has no chance of winning. Then another DM (Dalton M), anyone who he endoses get no chance. That’s why Smitherman and Pentelone are kicked. If the two DMs gave their supports to Rob Ford, I assure you, he can’t win. The message is loud and clear: you will see it again in the provincial election!

#27 Soylent Green is People on 10.26.10 at 10:32 pm

#10 Jeff Smith on 10.26.10 at 9:49 pm

I sincerely hope your G20 comment was in jest.

Steve Paikin (TVO) interviewed on Real News:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCWNqMV4Bgs

p.s. Hate Harper? http://tiny.cc/CRUSH

♥♥♥

#28 bullion.bunny on 10.26.10 at 10:32 pm

Our currency would be worth a buck and a half US and the federal deficit out of control. This blog would be taken over by bullion Huns and Visigoths, resplendent in their iron helmets, broadswording off the limbs of anyone without enough gold to save their pathetic metrosexual skins.

Well, you are making excellent progress……soon you will learn to love gold and maybe even silver…….this is about to get nasty, very nasty

#29 BrianT on 10.26.10 at 10:48 pm

Reading TAE today (especially the Ratigan Bill Black clip) and you get the wierd deja vu feeling like Argentina just before things really went south-not one member of the “elite” even acknowledges what is occurring in terms of massive fraud-meanwhile you have the guerrilla fighters like Ratigan trying to alert the general public http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

#30 Kanata squirrel on 10.26.10 at 10:49 pm

I have a Sold thingy on the For Sale Sign in front of my home … hmmm now I need to find a fee-based advisor in Ottawa … any suggestions?

#31 Peter Pan on 10.26.10 at 10:51 pm

You forgot the Ostrogoths…

The Ostrogoth Defamation League (ODL) will soon be lodging a human rights complaint against this blog…

#32 bullion.bunny on 10.26.10 at 10:56 pm

It was a right-wing sweep and a repudiation of political insiders. More ass kicking.

Rob Ford is NOT right wing, he just spends tax payer money like it was his own. This is long over due at all levels of government.

promised to slash government and Javex city hall.

Javex is not strong enough, you need acid to burn the scum off.

#33 Boombust on 10.26.10 at 11:01 pm

“Come on Garth, how much worse could it get than Stephen Harper?”

Yes. Please. Anyone. Someone with a better hairdo.

#34 Boombust on 10.26.10 at 11:02 pm

“Contrary to popular bear opinions, the month of October is seeing a resurgence in RE activity in Vancouver.”

Whatever, Cam.

#35 Alex on 10.26.10 at 11:03 pm

#6 Sail1: Same story, different headline:

“Housing correction possible: Carney”

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/10/26/carney-finance-committee.html

#36 Hosehead on 10.26.10 at 11:04 pm

Garth – how likely is it the Canadian dollar would ever go to a buck and a half US? How does that change your “buy America, sell Canada” message? All the currency talk going on right now makes it seem very risky to buy America (right now). If the yankee dollar plummets, one could stand to save or lose 20% or more depending on when you buy. Timing is everything.

#5 Dream on. Suites may allow some to still afford the ridiculous Vancouver prices but how does that support prices going anywhere but flat or down in the future? Once the property has been suited, the value jumps slightly for one buyer, but not for the next. Lots of suites in the T-dot and every neighbourhood across Canada within walking distance of a university campus. The difference is, in other cities, the landlords make an income. In Vancouver, it just barely covers the interest on the mortgage. The day of reckoning is coming to Vancouver.

#37 market watcher on 10.26.10 at 11:19 pm

Housing correction possible: Carney

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/10/26/carney-finance-committee.html

#38 realpaul on 10.26.10 at 11:23 pm

Garth I’m proud of my Scandanavian heritage, am invested in gold, but draw the line at shaving my chest…so please…go easy on the metrosexual digs OK?

We are witnessing a true macro economic phenomena…..every major financial downturn in history has created new business models and this one will be no differant.

Of course you’ve noticed the swing towards fiscal responsibiltiy world wide…Ford is one example of how people are unconciously communicating their concerns. In BC we have Gordon Campbell fighting for his life after piling on one last lie…..about a new tax called the HST…this after hundreds of new taxes and levies have been piled on during his office…why the rage now? Its the pendulum of history coming back with a sharpened vengeance baby and its slicing into the US..the UK…Eurozone…Canada.

This Ford thing is probably being recognized as a big win for Harper….if harper can break urban Toronto…once seeded with Trudeau’s zombie army of overwhelming numbers of parliamentary seats…then he’s got his majority…..he’ll ride the tide of history into a majority…not because he’s anymore popular..but because the mood of the people has changed.

We’re tired of the Liberal spending…the unions screwing the pooch..the civic workers wallowing in the trough and getting triple pensions for their laziness. people are mad….and scared….rightly so.

Ground squirrels be damned Garth…get to high ground where you can watch the show……..the ‘Bay of Fundy’ of political history is taking place right in front of our eyes and you don’t want to miss the show. C’mon ..you see it don’t you….there was a tea party meeting in Montreal last week..who couldn’t notice Tremonti and that funeral director Mansbridge looking like they hadn’t slept for a week?

I disagree with one thing though and it bothers me to no end…if the Republicans sweep the house and the threat of a spending freeze is established..won’t that be bad for gold?

#39 Dan in Victoria on 10.26.10 at 11:24 pm

I wonder which way we’re headed ?
The Jetsons or
The Flintstones.

#40 dark sad person on 10.26.10 at 11:24 pm

161 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.26.10 at 7:44 pm

The Elite “Here is the key point I wish to emphasize: we will not “get” inflation or deflation by chance or mechanistic functions, but by a series of policy choices which will be made to benefit the Financial Power Elites and their functionaries in the Central State.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct10/grand-strategy10-10.html

*************************
NLMV–

Great link-I seldom disagree with anything CHS says–

Bread and Circus Control-
Deflation and Poverty for the masses-
Few will escape–

No Debt—NONE–
Cash baby Cash–
Then Bonds-long haul–
Ohhhh and “always” some Gold-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwl7tthqzkA

*****************************

#2 Moneta on 10.26.10 at 8:58 pm

“No jobs,” she said, “no hope. People are pissed.”
———
And they haven’t seen anything yet.

******************

You got it-
People will wish the their worst day of 2010 was tomorrow-for a decade–maybe 2–

#41 HouseBuster on 10.26.10 at 11:37 pm

“…and elected as mayor a blustery, untelegenic, homophobic local councilor with a dodgy past.. ”
—————————————————
The funny thing is that I haven’t heard anyone admit to voting for him. LOL.

#42 HouseBuster on 10.26.10 at 11:41 pm

A bit OT here… but I’ve always wondered about an area in Oakville called Lakeshore Woods. This is an area with many 600K+ homes but an area that used to be a barren wasteland.

They built up Lakeshore Woods right behind an old Petro Canada refinery.

Now am I the only one who sees a problem with this location? It is just mind boggling to me. Has anyone even bothered to take soil samples from the area?

How can you live by an old refinery??? I don’t get it. Please help.

#43 brunt on 10.26.10 at 11:42 pm

Getting into debt is always fun as you get to spend more than you earn.

Stopping debt from increasing is painful, as you get to spend less than earn PLUS have to service the debt that you have piled up.

Paying off debt is excruciating as you get to spend almost nothing as you service the debt plus have to pay down the debt as well. If interest rates increase, then it is that much worse again.

People for far too long have forgotten that debt is a four letter word. Bad times are certainly coming. While I don’t really welcome them, it will be good to teach people a few economic lessons.

Times have been too good for too long. All levels of government have taken on far too much debt in order to buy more votes. Most individuals have taken on far too much debt in order to buy the good life at 25 that their parents could never afford at 55. Thing is, that they couldn’t afford it at 25 either. They certainly won’t be able to at 55.

I don’t expect things to go all Mad Max. The sun will rise. The electricity will still be on. Just that many people may find that they can’t afford to pay for it.

#44 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.26.10 at 11:51 pm


Visigoths preceded Monty Python by an eon or two.

“It was a right-wing sweep . . .” — The west is following an ultra right-wing neocon path (dubya et al) which is glossed over as less govt. for people, more money for the elite.

What is curious is Obamamania is more left-wing, following in hero’s Marx and Lenin’s footsteps. With the link posted below, which shows the Arizona Supreme Court tossing the requirements for showing proof of being a US citizen to be eligible to vote, things are getting mighty strange there, Alice.

“. . . and ballooned the size and cost of government, guaranteeing a generation or two of higher taxes.” — Let’s hypothecate:

If Obama is a one-term prez, Hillary replaces him and faces off against Sarah, will it really change anything? Of course not. The WH has seen this downturn coming for years.

9-11 and things like that were simply distractions to take our attention away from what is really taking place behind our backs — the massive transfer of wealth from individuals to govts. first, then to the elite from way higher taxes on people.

Only then will we be a continent full of galley slaves, rowing the boat with a mere pittance thrown their way.

“Or letting banks and the real estate market fail.” — RE is small fry. Banks (up here) will be a little more difficult to close, then former employees go on social assistance, welfare or EI for the remainder of their lifecycles.

“Our currency would be worth a buck and a half US and the federal deficit out of control.” — That is when a new currency could be introduced, the deficits / debts wiped clean and a whole bunch of retiring boomers in 2015 can be euthanized. Problem solved!

“. . . the none-of-the-above movement here needs to be taken seriously.” — There was a blogger on the old political site (can’t recall the handle) who advocated voting none of the above, as most (not all) politicos are no more than greedy, self-serving bastards.

“If my predictions are half right, this gets worse.” — Try WW3. How bad is that? The longer the US keeps meddling and interfering with other countries, the more the anger will build against them.
*
#159 miketheengineer on 10.26.10 at 7:34 pm — “So here is the pattern…sun spot solar storm activity, then 1 or 2 days later, earth quakes and volcanos going nuts.”

Good description, Mike. What makes it more interesting is if the CERN Hadron Collider is involved in any way at all, along with HAARP.

So much ‘stuff’ going on. Gotta take it easy, or what’s left of my brain will end up being scrambled eggs!
*
Elites get off scot-free. Whaddaya expect?!

Food Crisis all over.

This is what Obama needs to stay in power in 2012, and Arizona gave illegals a free pass to come in.

This is what I do for exercise!

Bizarre The WH – Pentagon – NASA need to generate better fear-mongering news than this. If an asteroid hits, we’re all gone anyway!

#45 45north on 10.27.10 at 12:10 am

If my predictions are half right, this gets worse. And most people will walk right into the middle of the storm they should have seen coming months ago. No telling what they’ll do then.

I said that the decline in the housing market will have political effects but so far I’ve been wrong except for Rob Ford.

Who reminds me of Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey. Chris Christie is a very sharp guy. I don’t know how Rob Ford compares. Here’s Chris Christie’s Day of Reckoning:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Evtt-R7Rmdw

here’s Martina McBride’s:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zbv5iJEDzN8

#46 gold bugger on 10.27.10 at 12:27 am

“I think Rob Ford promised to abolish the land transfer in around 2012. This could put a dent in Toronto real estate sales as new buyers may just wait to avoid paying the tax. Any opinions on this?”

Any time a tax has a chance to be dead, take it. Fk the real estate market.

Of course, it will never happen.

“Now that I’m in office and I’ve had a good look at the books I realize that it would be fiscally imprudent to abolish the tax,” etc, etc.

#47 dark sad person on 10.27.10 at 12:27 am

How much hurt will become evident Tuesday night when they count votes in the US mid-term elections. While it’ll be a referendum on two years of Obama, it’s really a verdict on the economy. With 17% actual unemployment, record personal and public debt, deflation and house prices in a four-year slide, millions of voters have decided that Keynesian economics is a crock. To them, trillions in government borrowing and spending bailed out banks, but did nothing for homeowners, created no lasting jobs and ballooned the size and cost of government, guaranteeing a generation or two of higher taxes.

*******************

I’m not sure I would give credit to voters even knowing who Keynes was-let alone his flawed economic model-
All they understand is that they’re fu-ked and they want what they had-to come back and “think” the right Politicians can do that-but–no one–nothing–can stop Deflation-until debt is flushed-
The problem is-Deflation could be a great thing for People-if Politicians would stop trying to control prices and prop up dead Banks and Corporations-
Like you say-the Stimulus was a total failure-except for GS et al–who are speculating in Commodities and driving prices up and not if-but when-they get their ass handed to them when that bubble pops-they will scream for another bailout from taxpayers–
We have a flawed economic system that’s coming apart at the seams and a Government that doesn’t have friggen clue what to do-except print/spend money and tax the poor–
That game cannot last and so it wont-
Deflation is here-
The Market has spoken-few listened to it–

#48 Gord In Vancouver on 10.27.10 at 12:33 am

#5 Debt Lover

Your post will be validated once October Vancouver real estate sales are released.

If I was a real estate bull, I’d feel embarrassed to admit that “mortgage helpers” are a necessity, not an option to buying property in my city.

If EI benefits aren’t extended again, many “mortgage helpers” will have no choice but to relocate, not dig in like they were able to before. Most unemployed 30+ Vancouverites I know, can’t find work that pays more than EI – you know that Global BC will never cover this.

No black swan events on the horizon my house poor bears. Have you walked by the Olympic Village at night recently?

#49 Skip on 10.27.10 at 12:34 am

Keynesian economics only works, as long as have a very strong economy with good growth (hence the surplus value extracted after WWII when America homogenized the world under it’s capitalism and spread socialized production through the assembly line). It failed by the 1960s as surplus value petered out, leading to a major recession in the 1970s. Then the bourgeoisie tried the Friedman neo-liberal approach. That failed by 2008.

Now World Capitalism is trying to reorientate itself.

At first the bourgeoisie spent trillions to prop up their banking system and now they want the working class to pay for it all.

It will not work and a further degradation into reactionary politics with simplistic ideas, like the Tea Party and Rob Ford, will take hold.

Capitalism needs an economy. What’s left to exploit?

#50 Don on 10.27.10 at 12:37 am

#5 Debt Lover
Victoria BC also has tons of basement suites, problem is…not many willing renters especially with so many apartments sitting empty. I would suggest that every area has been relying on basement or cottage suites to help out with the mortgage. Raincouver surrounded by bridges is not the best place to live in BC.

#51 Get Real on 10.27.10 at 12:38 am

I have lived and worked in States, Ontario and eastern Canada. I do well in life and pride myself on my instinct to distinguish between BS and the real deal.

RE in Vancouver is a disaster waiting to happen. Could not care less. No HR or resource based economy, poor infrastructure (I am sure renovating the roof of BC center is engine that will drive the economy to the next decade !) high taxes, delusional ideology. And frankly, most people are rude and contemptuous. Truth be told, “best place on earth” is an oxymoron. It is the same ideology where an unemployed guy believes that it is hip and okay to pay $ 4 for a cup of coffee at Starbucks every morning.

Any old timer worth his salt (perhaps Garth) or an immigrant who has seen the ups and downs of life (like myself) can only say so much

If I was to make a mistake and invest in RE now, I would rather do it in ON and take my chances. It at least has better road, infrastructure and economics.

#52 marcus aurelius on 10.27.10 at 12:44 am

#9 – absolutely – only a fool would buy in Toronto before the tax goes away. For a 12-18 month wait (longest) you (1) get a better purchase price as prices – actual sales prices – are going WAAAAY down as we speak; and (2) if any shack in the north-central sector where the genteel folk live starts at $800K, that would be an extra 15-25K in your jeans for the average 4 bdr detached….

#53 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.27.10 at 12:49 am


Thomas Jefferson’s Top 10 Quotes (not David Letterman).

If govts. are preparing for these events, shouldn’t we?

Shady govts. They all are, and we all know that (except sheeple).

Inflation Real food costs up by 48%.

A good reason why the west (incompetent) is sinking and east (smart) rising.

Computers are good for some things, not so good for others.

Little Bubbles Another one soon to bite the dust.

Mid-terms already decided?

Whoa baby! Banks are naughty by nature. See previous.

True cost of Oil. No wonder the economy smells like a sewer-rat.

Excess Liquidity Blog Dawgs, it’s being held at Garth’s Bunker. He has spared no expense!

Different Style of living.

#54 AxeHead on 10.27.10 at 12:56 am

#5 – you’re a blind idiot.
#7 – do you really think the liberals or NDP would do any better? They are a socialist breed and would spend much more (if you can believe it) than the conservatives for ‘jobs, jobs, jobs’ or tax the evil middle and upper class to help Tamil or Taliban refugees set up training camps, or hell – just ‘shut down the oilsands right now’.

If my guess is right…the right wing is on the rise (cite Toronto Municipal winner and watch the American mid term elections) and Harpur may just get his majority because in the end…the conservatives are still the most ‘conservative’ of the 3 stooges.

#55 Waiting and watching in Kelowna on 10.27.10 at 1:08 am

After all, if spending a few trillion trying to stimulate things didn’t work, imagine what turning off the tap will do. Or protectionism. Or letting banks and the real estate market fail.
^^well, if those are off the table, what’s left?

#56 The Original Dave on 10.27.10 at 1:09 am

I”m not a gold nutbar, but here’s what Mish had to say about gold and gold stocks when real interest rates are negative………

Look at the price of gold since 1975. When real interest rates have been negative (even simply measured as the 3-month Treasury bill yield minus trailing annual CPI inflation), gold prices have appreciated at a 20.7% annual rate. In contrast, when real interest rates have been positive, gold has appreciated at just 2.1% annually. The tendency toward commodity hoarding is particularly strong when economic conditions are very weak and desirable options for real investment are not available. When real interest rates have been negative and the Purchasing Managers Index has been below 50, the XAU gold index has appreciated at an 85.7% annual rate, compared with a rate of just 0.1% when neither has been true. Despite these tendencies, investors should be aware that the volatility of gold stocks can often be intolerable, so finer methods of analysis are also essential.

#57 TaxHaven on 10.27.10 at 1:19 am

An optimistic Garth: “Move into balanced financial assets” and “Buy things that pay income”.

Yet…

“The recession did not end. Jobs are not coming back. Households are in a money vice. And now negative real estate stories are in the media every day. Hence, the assault on the middle class is under way, and that makes ‘em angry.

If my predictions are half right, this gets worse. And most people will walk right into the middle of the storm they should have seen coming months ago”

…which DOESN’T sound optimistic about any of this changing anytime soon. So why advise people to invest in paper, income-generating assets if this can only get worse?

Suppose this is not a run-of-the-mill recession. Jobs are not coming back. Suppose this crisis is an episodic change and the top of a slippery slope. Perhaps this is, at root, either a currency or solvency event- one which will eventually affect every type of financial planning, every assumed ROI, every pension fund’s actuarial assessments, every insurer, bank and government.

I think “normal” will not return for many, many years. It is possible that we are now in the penultimate phase of a slow-motion currency collapse whose start was as far back as the 1960s.

Return OF capital, rather than return ON capital, will increasingly be the coming concern.

Remember, what is deflating? Debt-denominated assets. Housing. Financial instruments such as CMBS, MBS, CDS, CDO. All kinds of bonds. All paper currencies vs. real commodities and gold. (IMO Natural gas is the buy of the year right now!)

And many of these things are indeed financial assets paying regular returns. But they are paying returns in currencies which are continuously being devalued versus the real assets people need daily. And the nominal returns they pay are not keeping up with price inflation in these necessities… 5-7%??? Hell, breakfast cereal is up more than double that…!

I have some in commodities, 40% in gold (mostly gold bullion) and continue to buy on dips (such as the present) because, in the future, those who hold assets of real, enduring value will be able to maintain that value and those stuck in currency & debt-dependent “income generating” stuff will not.

#58 Stampede Sam on 10.27.10 at 1:22 am

Looks like you’re right about one of your 11 indicators Garth, the MSM is picking up on this stuff and turning negative towards RE.

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20101026/real-estate-101026/

#59 Jojo on 10.27.10 at 1:41 am

Oh yeah,but we need 300k more immigrants every year? Well immigration law in Canada today is different, no more stampede from immigrants anymore only guys with serious job offers and only temporary working visas 1,2 years (if they can find any work). Real estate bubble soon is death
from 2011 to 2016 will see “STIMULUS DISASTER” on the RE Market or HYPER,HYPER INFLATION when the paper money will going in toilet. And Garth and company I told you so two years ago,that RE in Toronto and Gold will skyrocket till Oct/2010.
But now we have only 3 choises.
-Depression and RE crash
-Hyper inflation
-Global War or WW III.

No jobs,” she said, “no hope. People are pissed.”

Who’s care for peasants. Next is privatisation of Public Transit, Airports,Hospitals,Education in Ontario because the goverment need to “stimulate” economy with Olimpics,new G-20 meetings and new 300k police,enforcement,security officers.

No jobs,” she said, “no hope. People are pissed.”

#60 Devore on 10.27.10 at 1:58 am

Bond market’s gone bananas! Long bond rates falling, Mexico issuing a century bond (along with some US financial whose name I don’t recall now), JPM has a 40 year bond, Goldman just came out with a 50 year bond, all of which are selling like hotcakes, and now TIPS sell at negative yield! Presumably only reason to buy one is because you’re expecting inflation in the near future. The market is schizo. Investors chase yields at all costs, the retail ones can’t even spell “risk”, and everyone else is gambling on TIPS, betting FED will ignite inflation (which is clearly their aim, and I don’t think fighting the FED is wise long term).

#61 ralph on 10.27.10 at 2:23 am

Are you kidding. I just don’t see Canadians getting fired up about anything except Hockey Night in Canada, beer and the weather.

Hell, it’s a struggle for most people just to move their behinds to a polling station to vote. Maybe it’ll be different this time and we can have some real change.

#62 Potato on 10.27.10 at 2:31 am

Toronto Guy #9: I like the land transfer tax as a revenue-generator for the city: a one-time hit to property values, and then it’s just priced in. Real estate prices have been frothy enough that the small % tax just got lost in the noise.

For that same reason though, I don’t think there will be many people who try to hold off on buying to avoid it — the buyers are generally hoping for prices to go up year after year, so it doesn’t make sense to miss out on their expected 5% gain to save 1.5% on taxes. That said, there are always a few with an irrational hatred of taxes who will try to do exactly that.

#63 betamax on 10.27.10 at 3:02 am

#5 Debt Lover: “No black swan events on the horizon my house poor bears.”

Correct. The incipient crash in Van prices was entirely foreseeable. Coming soon to a neighbourhood near you…

BTW, how many $600k townhouses and condos have mortgage helpers? Think before making up stats out of thin air.

#64 blase on 10.27.10 at 3:24 am

Interesting development in the Calgary house market. Over the summer, the median condo price dropped from the 280s to the 260s. Then the last couple of weeks, it edged up, and then it stalled. Well, it finally busted the 260 threshold: it’s at 259,000 today. I’m watching the condos because I figure those are the properties where you’ll see the bailing-out happen first. I’d say there more than a few Calgarians starting to get panicky right now. Remember September of 2008, when the median condo price was well over $300,000? It’s happening folks, the sloooow burn.

#65 State of Mind on 10.27.10 at 5:19 am

On here in early 2009, I said debt does not equal weath, governments cannot spend their way out of debt, the average person cannot either.

Now in late 2010, we have even MORE DEBT, personal, gov’t and corporate. Piling on the debt didn’t help pull us out of the great recession, didn’t make people more wealthy, didn’t hire more people, it just make it all worse.

To pay all the debt back, I truly believe in austerity measures, higher TEMPORARY taxes (in all forms), cut backs, higher interest rates, smaller gov’t, less banking corruption and education, will in time bring us back onto the right track.

Just like medicine, it tastes bad but it works.

#66 GTA Realtor on 10.27.10 at 5:24 am

“After all, if spending a few trillion trying to stimulate things didn’t work, imagine what turning off the tap will do. Or protectionism. Or letting banks and the real estate market fail.”

There are only two real options:
1. Borrow still more to get out of debt.
2. Let markets adjust “organically”.

I’m with Basil F above, and #2’s the only way.

…and, Garth, there’s a little politician in you yet: Your outlook going forward seems to be consistently downgraded! Are we there yet? Likely not…

Keep up the great work.

[Though you did neglect to mention Mr. Smitherman’s big “wart”…that billion taxpayer dollars he peed away on eHealth…]

#67 Paul Sandhu on 10.27.10 at 5:30 am

Welcome to the Apocalypse Mr. Turner! Seems like you are beginning to glimpse what ‘Realists’ like me have been saying for years, even on this blog, although we have had to endure much maligning and misnomering as ‘Doomers’.

There is no escaping reality and it will get worse, much worse – how can it not?

And Rob Ford ain’t the answer; he’s just another errand boy picked to do the dirty work for the wizards behind the curtain. I wonder how much austerity he will subject Bay Street to?

Start canning and googling squirrel recipes!

#68 Old_is_Gold on 10.27.10 at 5:41 am

#9 Toronto Guy on 10.26.10 at 9:47 pm

I think Rob Ford promised to abolish the land transfer in aroud 2012. This could put a dent in Toronto real estate sales as new buyers may just wait to avoid paying the tax.

Any opinions on this?
——————————————————————-
Believing politicians promises is like believing in the chastity of a lady of the night. The Fiberals promised to get rid of the GST – how many terms did Chretien have to fulfill this promise, not to mention Paul Martin? The Land Transfer is too much of a cash cow for a cash starved city like Toronto.

One thing I don’t understand is that since Mike Harris, Toronto has cut, cut, cut, reduced, reduced, reduced…since the end of the 90’s the cash has flowed in from all that construction that has gone on downtown and uptown and all the SFH’s that have exchanged hands like a rugby ball, and the city has seen the greatest boom ever in history, how come it is not rolling in cash? How come it still runs deficits? Where has all the money gone? Maybe Garth has an explanation but it has me mystified.

#69 Moneta on 10.27.10 at 5:48 am

If Harper is re elected then maybe we’re not much swifter than the yanks- even though the Republicans are outspending the Democrats in the election by a country mile
————-
Electing Harper was like reelecting Bush. But then again, what was the other choice? Sarkozy is the French Bush. The developed world has gone the way of Bush… with a lag.

When people lose rights and feel powerless they don’t fight to get those rights back; they fight to take them away from the others who still have them. Amd the type of people we are electing are only too happy to comply.

We’re on our own.

#70 I. Muvrini on 10.27.10 at 5:49 am

“This blog would be taken over by bullion Huns and Visigoths, resplendent in their iron helmets, broadswording off the limbs of anyone without enough gold to save their pathetic metrosexual skins.”

You’re getting wagnerian. Keep it up!

#71 Moneta on 10.27.10 at 5:52 am

Anyone have any Ottawa broker gossip?
———-
I jog every second day and have 3 different routes. In all 3, I’ve noticed that most houses with signs are the biggest ones where nothing was done. Always the ones you don’t really want. The nice ones are rarely on the market and the small ones disappear quickly.

#72 HappyPlace54 on 10.27.10 at 5:57 am

Rob Ford is homophobic? I didn’t get that impression at any time during his campaign. Blustery maybe, but we need a blustery mayor who will go into City Hall with a big shovel and I think Rob is just the guy to do that.

#73 DARLENE on 10.27.10 at 6:12 am

Kitchener1 on 10.26.10 at 9:07 pm

Same tune is true in Kitchener, factories gone, jobs gone and lots of people without employment and yes people are also pissed out here

*********************************************

There was no massive upsets in our election in Waterloo Region. We might be pissed but we put the blame where it belongs. That’s at the provincial and federal level.

#74 McSteve on 10.27.10 at 6:47 am

I’m a moderate, but I can see where the anger comes from.

Billions have been spent on “infrastructure” but there are still leaky public water works in major cities, there is no high speed rail system in central Canada and waiting times at Hospitals haven’t changed. We did get a fake lake, a really cool pavilion in Clement’s riding and turned private debt into a public liability. In my part of the world, perfectly good bridges over small creeks in low traffic, rural areas got replaced with new(er) bridges. Near my father’s cottage in Eastern Ontario a remote dirt road 20km from any highway got blacktopped (Tory riding).

Oh yeah, and we are another $55 Billion in the hole this year.

#75 David B on 10.27.10 at 7:02 am

North America’s #1 Show “DWRS” was interupted by local TV (CTV) just before the final dancing duel got the boot …. with “Mr. Carney states Canadian Real Estate overvalued by 23.9%)” this and more later on CTV News!

Well Garth Mr. Carney said the correction will come …

“ABRUPTLY” when it hits.

Hello, this news will ensure every RE agent should instruct Greater Fools to start at 75% the asking price or risk loosing their heads!

And one lady in Calgary when interview standing in front of the sign on her lawn confirmed the sad news.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

Meanwhile back at the Ranch…

Free Trade with EU underway with lose of 28,000 jobs in the maufucturing sector.

South of Border …..

The Fed is close to embarking on another round of monetary stimulus next week, against the backdrop of a weak economy and low inflation—and despite doubts about the wisdom of the policy among economists and some of the Fed’s decision makers.

OMG ….. the US Nation Debt is now at: $13.72 “T” with interest payments of $3.2 m/minute!

Lets review that line agan!

and despite doubts about the wisdom of the policy among economists and some of the Fed’s decision makers.

In simple terms of cowboy boots and hell bent to leather it means:

They havn’t got a clew what they are doing!

………………………..

Here in Canada our # 1 Economist “King Steve” is off selling Free Trade to the EU and buying super F-35’s as that the AG is saying to him …..Wait! if it goes like your round with the helicoptors it will cost 3-4 times as much and y’all will get taken.
=============

TTFN

#76 Brian1 on 10.27.10 at 7:15 am

Gold will probably rise to 3000 over next 3 years and then stop. It is not enough reason to buy it now at todays prices. If it should miraculously drop to 500 today then I would buy.
Metropolitan Police and Fire; Stop hiring relatives without 5 years fire experience. Stop padding your families household incomes at taxpayers expense. Make applicants work elsewhere for 5 years. I guarantee they will not make it.

#77 Moneta on 10.27.10 at 7:22 am

I am curious what other posters think of the potential political fallout from a RE melt in Canada?
——
Whatever you call it, far right, conservatism, corporatism, fascism, whatever this new form is, it is still in an upward trajectory. Because the pendulum always swings too far, this movement will probably shoot up like a hockey stick.

The world’s current power structure, 30-40 years in the making, resides with the exporters. Since the US exports money, bankers are in control. In the rest of the world, exporters will force currency devaluations.

IMO, any leader, leftist and centrist alike, will quickly be pushed into that direction (i.e. Obama). Corporations will squeeze the lemon until there is no juice left and there is still a little bit of juice left.

Unless we get a White Knight in Shining Armour, we’re going to the far right politically. When people feel powerless , they always look for a leader who will take away the others’ rights (union bashing, public pensions…) instead of fighting for their own rights or a win-win solution. Lose-lose will be chosen.

And people like Ford are just going to get us there faster.

#78 OttawaMike on 10.27.10 at 7:43 am

On a road trip to Pennsylvania this past weekend to purchase a nicely optioned 08 F150 extended cab for 7500$ USD. (How’s that for deflation?) I had the satellite radio tuned to Bloomberg and Professor Schiller giving an in depth interview.

Some of his key points:
• the US housing market is double dipping, the amount of decline happens to coincide with the 8k$ expired govt. incentive
• the foreclosure crisis will not likely have a huge impact on the overall market, he claims it to be more of a general confidence buster that the media has overplayed
• the foreclosure issue is however skewing avg. prices up due to the inventory not on the market so the latest dip is worse than it seems
• if you are thinking of entering the market(not selling an underwater place and moving up) now is a good time to buy in spite of the risk for slightly more depreciation
• his 5 yr projection is 2% avg. increase in prices per year but he emphasized how unreliable these economic forecasts are and how full of crap most economists including himself can be
• nonetheless, based on the above he reckons many underwater home owners will need to wait until 2028 to return to 2006 prices
• he did not however totally rule out another housing bubble occurring within the next 5 yrs. Due to cheap money and the unusually uncertain nature of these economic times
• Schiller believes interest rates will rise much quicker than people expect no matter which way the market turns

#79 Moneta on 10.27.10 at 7:50 am

since the end of the 90′s the cash has flowed in from all that construction that has gone on downtown and uptown and all the SFH’s that have exchanged hands like a rugby ball,
————
Contrary to popular belief, Martin was not a miracle man. Our federal and provincvial governments just deflected costs onto the cities.

To make matters worse, they put maintenance on hold for a decade. So instead of getting things done when oil was 18$ a barrel, they are now doing everything at 80$.

Everyone seems to think that muni taxes are too high but in reality they are too low too sustain what we have built up! They keep on building new McMansions when they don’t even have enough money to properly maintain the exisitng neighborhoods.

Then we have all the unfunded pension plans and entitlements to deal with. Either we will be funding these with taxes or debt, your pick.

We have built ourselves one unsustainable system. And if China and India keep on growing and gobble up *our* resources, it’s going to cost us one heck of a lot of dollars to sustain our houses and infra over the years!!!

The money has been gushing but our overbuilt on the cheap system and the entitlements have been soaking it all up.

#80 t on 10.27.10 at 7:52 am

Guelph re-elected its semi-progressive mayor, Karen Farbridge. I say semi-progressive because she laid off city workers for five days last year. Guelph real estate seems to be holding its own. Could Guelph be an oasis of solid real estate values and progressives. Is Guelph different?

#81 CTO on 10.27.10 at 8:00 am

I told my wife last night that Rob Ford will have no other choice than to raise taxes.

What he says he will do, which may be necessary, will meet up with tremendous opposition.

He will not receive any money from higher level government,…and why should he!?

Ontario and Canada consist of the much greater population living outside metro T.O.
The regions, York, Durham and Peel have taxes twice as high.

Why should London pay for Toronto mis-management??

Why should Windsor pay for “beamer driving high rollers” bragging about there housing investment doubling in price???

The rest of the world see’s that T.O’s taxes should increase like the price of it’s housing. NO FUTURE MONEY TO TORONTO.

My wife didn’t like to hear that…

#82 pbrasseur on 10.27.10 at 8:02 am

“…who promised to slash government and Javex city hall. It was a right-wing sweep and a repudiation of political insiders. More ass kicking.” Garth

I wish they’d elect someone like that in Montreal where the city is near bankrupt, infrastructures are decaying, mafia is running the construction industry, yet the town raises taxes to supply it’s employees pension funds and just signed a generous collective agreement with its blue collars, a group that takes on average 4 weeks in sick days every year on top of very generous vacations.

#83 Love this Blog on 10.27.10 at 8:04 am

#77 Ottawa Mike,
Thanks for the useful update.

#84 jen on 10.27.10 at 8:09 am

Bailouts for the rich and austerity for the poor and middle class.

Social program spending and welfare policies for banks and tough talk on the need for austerity relating to social programs.

Elected politicians lecturing the Maude Barlows and Jack Laytons of the world on how redistributionist policies distort the free market, all the while redistributing billions to corporate special interests.

The conservative nanny state is in ascendancy everywhere!

#85 Joe Q. on 10.27.10 at 8:13 am

#9 Toronto Guy on 10.26.10 at 9:47 pm writes: “I think Rob Ford promised to abolish the land transfer in aroud 2012. This could put a dent in Toronto real estate sales as new buyers may just wait to avoid paying the tax. Any opinions on this?”

Highly doubtful. The T.O. land-transfer tax is less than 1% of the sale price of a home. Easily swamped by price negotiations and even the month-to-month volatility in home prices.

#86 Brian1 on 10.27.10 at 8:16 am

State of Mind; Yesterday you said gold does not do well in delationary environment, yet was not the depression a deflationary environment? I was reprimanded once for saying so.
Correction for last post; relatives of police should also have 5 years police experience.

#87 Carruthers on 10.27.10 at 8:19 am

# 5 debt Lover wrote: “No black swan events on the horizon my house poor bears.” How can you tell Debt Lover? According to Nasim Taleb a black swan is a hard to predict, rare event. An unknown unknown. Please share your superior intellectual fore site with us. Fool.

Perhaps those who already despise Ford are forgetting the handiwork of Smitherman in the eHealth fiasco. One billion tax dollars spent and still waiting for a useable system. Is this the guy Torontonians wanted running their city? I think even liberal-minded Torontonians are beginning to question how little cash they have left at the end of the month. However, that won’t waylay the impending onslaught of wailing and gnashing of teeth that will begin emanating from the Star and CBC morning shows in short order.

#88 Jimbo on 10.27.10 at 8:22 am

Here is something to ponder.

It’s the end of October, The Brampton Real Estate Board still has not published its Housing stats for Sept.

Something they don’t want us to see.

#89 eddy on 10.27.10 at 8:26 am

Ford’s win is being painted as right wing, but it may be just an anti-Illuminati rebellion. People will accept their position on the pyramid when times are good, but now the majority (60%) are one pay day ahead of disaster. The pyramid will inevitably collapse.

#90 BrianT on 10.27.10 at 8:26 am

#57Tax-Yes. Economists cannot grasp the concept, but at a macro level economies either make money (produce wealth) or lose money. At this point, the US economy is a huge money loser overall. The national economic strategy is just one ponzi scheme after another-this ridiculous elevation of the federal reserve as the guider of the economy is farcical-“monetary stimulus” is simply moving wealth from the overall economy to the chosen receiving parties of this largesse-one could term bank robbery as a similar form of “monetary stimulus” and focus on all the jobs created as the bank robbers spent or invested their loot. Anyways, I agree that eventually this well end very very badly.

#91 OttawaDaddy on 10.27.10 at 8:27 am

I too am looking for a fee for service fellow in Ottawa.. in the meantime, I have had luck commodities trading with Mark Wacyk of RBC in Bells Corners.

If you listen to “How I see the world” by Jim Rogers at a talk at the Mises Institute (also on youtube), that seems to be a way to go

http://feeds.mises.org/MisesMedia

there is also a QandA afterwards

#92 Joe Q. on 10.27.10 at 8:41 am

#71 HappyPlace54 on 10.27.10 at 5:57 am writes: “Rob Ford is homophobic? I didn’t get that impression at any time during his campaign.”

It wasn’t during the campaign but rather his remarks from several years ago that the City of Toronto shouldn’t fund HIV-related services because only gay people and drug users get AIDS.

There was an undercurrent of homophobia during the campaign, though, in the form of anonymous flyers and radio ads in the ethnic-language media. And Smitherman was booed at Ford HQ when he thanked his partner for his support (Smitherman’s concession speech was being played on TV in the hall).

#93 Bond Bull Done on 10.27.10 at 8:44 am

From the Bond King: The Bond Bull is Over

It’s Over: Bill Gross Declares That The 30-Year Bull Run In Bonds Is Coming To An End

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gross-the-30-year-bull-run-in-bonds-is-about-to-end-2010-10#ixzz13ZbqM8sO

Everything Bill Gross says is designed to make others react, so he can make more money. It’s time you learned that. — Garth

#94 Drake on 10.27.10 at 8:49 am

Still not surprised by any of this. Been voting NOTA for years (actually, but that, not voting at all) since voting only encourages them. The Tea Party started out on the right track, as supporters of Ron Paul, but now they’ve been taken over by the Old Party Machine. The system IS going to collapse and sooner than some people who write blogs think.

Collapse means anarchy. Don’t be an idiot. — Garth

#95 Happy renter on 10.27.10 at 8:49 am

#11 ottawa pete on 10.26.10 at 9:53 pm

“Just noticed a microburst of new listings here in Kanata/Stittsville this past week. Anyone have any Ottawa broker gossip?”
—————————————————————–

I think what you’re probably referring to is the listings from “by the owner.com” and “property guys” being listed on MLS by a Hamilton area broker. I’ve seen some of them come on-line here in the Barrie area.

I wonder how this influx of listings will affect the stats by CREA who no doubt have the Spin machine warming up.

#96 grantmi on 10.27.10 at 8:49 am

Who am I???

“There’s a huge amount of fiscal monetary stimulus, so this economy will get tired pretty soon!”

“If you continue to over-stimulate the economy and the investment environment isn’t friendly, you’re going to generate more inflation. This model isn’t sustainable in time!” – Alberto Ramos – Economist at Goldman Sucks in New York

Ready for it!!!!

No! It’s not the US of Ah!! it’s actually Argentina!

Argentina now has the third highest rate of inflation behind Venezuela and Pakistan.

But doesn’t that sound like the US!! Now if someone reported that about the USA… they’d be called a crackpot or nutbar!

Hang onto your hats folks… going to STILL be a bumpy ride ahead!

http://bit.ly/959QXO

#97 Brass Balls on 10.27.10 at 8:51 am

#22 Will H “I am curious what other posters think of the potential political fallout from a RE melt in Canada?”

We’re a lot more likely to get bailed out by the Liberals than if the Consevatives are in power. The Libs have a history of buying us with our own money…and it usually works!

#98 BrianT on 10.27.10 at 9:03 am

Here is just one more example of effective “monetary stimulus”-the boost to car dealers and female entertainers was well worth it http://www.thestar.com/news/article/881639–hookers-and-booze-your-tax-dollars-at-work?bn=1

#99 Deerhunter on 10.27.10 at 9:07 am

Comment #42 Housebuster wrote:

A bit OT here… but I’ve always wondered about an area in Oakville called Lakeshore Woods. This is an area with many 600K+ homes but an area that used to be a barren wasteland.

They built up Lakeshore Woods right behind an old Petro Canada refinery.

Now am I the only one who sees a problem with this location? It is just mind boggling to me. Has anyone even bothered to take soil samples from the area?

How can you live by an old refinery??? I don’t get it. Please help.

ANSWER: I don’t know the answer but if you think that living by an OLD refinery is bad I can highly recommend to you visiting Sherwood Park, AB which is conveniently located right next to Western Canada’s largest refinery. It is one of the MOST desirable neighbourhoods in Edmonton. It always stinks there, the playgrounds are toxic and Sherwood Park has the highest asthma rate in Canada !!! Why ANYONE would want to live there is beyond me …. Check this article: http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/cityplus/story.html?id=b7ebe2d1-6bb7-439f-9ead-ee6827b26314

#100 bullion.bunny on 10.27.10 at 9:14 am

#67 Old_is_Gold on 10.27.10 at 5:41 am

Where has all the money gone? Maybe Garth has an explanation but it has me mystified.

Lots of hands need to be greased and they get greased! City hall spends money like it’s going out of style, plus Toronto is 500 million in debt. Rob Ford will have to cut Ralph Klein style, hard, fast and deep. It’s the only way to get the debt monster under control.

#101 bullion.bunny on 10.27.10 at 9:15 am

#67 Old_is_Gold on 10.27.10 at 5:41 am

Where has all the money gone? Maybe Garth has an explanation but it has me mystified.

P.S. We have lots of T.T.C. ticket takers that sleep on the job and make $110,000 a year. Life is grand!

#102 PTDBD on 10.27.10 at 9:16 am

– B.C. economy will be hit hard if California voters pass Proposition 19, which largely legalizes pot.

– Interesting Drudge reports on voting machine glitches. Remarkable how sheeple have handed over their democratic vote to the men behind the black box curtain – computer programmers. Did your municipality use machines, scanners?

– Canada is ripe for a House cleaning. Con/Lib incumbents will see their oligarchy end. (Assuming they don’t switch to voting machines) .

– I watched part of Question Period yesterday. :-( Rona Ambrose responded to three questions by reading the same sentences from a piece of paper each time. Bizarre & disrespectful. Pull the string and get the exact same thing. Canadians deserve better.

#103 bullion.bunny on 10.27.10 at 9:22 am

Your tax dollars at work……

http://www.thestar.com/news/article/881639–hookers-and-booze-your-tax-dollars-at-work?bn=1

#104 Mtl RE Observations on 10.27.10 at 9:23 am

#81 pbrasseur

I wish they’d elect someone like that in Montreal where the city is near bankrupt, infrastructures are decaying, mafia is running the construction industry, yet the town raises taxes to supply it’s employees pension funds and just signed a generous collective agreement with its blue collars, a group that takes on average 4 weeks in sick days every year on top of very generous vacations.

==========

I couldn’t agree with you more. That’s why I am seriously considering never buying real estate in Montreal again. I think property taxes will become outrageously high here, not to mention what the cost of living will be when they raise the already outrageously high income taxes and sales taxes in Quebec.

#105 Contrarian Canuck on 10.27.10 at 9:25 am

The Big Question about real estate: Don’t we need interest rate hikes for real estate to fall?

Here’s a good read

http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2010/10/26/the-big-question/

#106 MP on 10.27.10 at 9:29 am

Uh oh. I am listening to CBC radio here. California is voting on legalizing marijuana next week? I hadn’t heard about this, but if they vote it through, analysts predict up to an 80% price drop for BC bud. Apparently, prices have already fallen because of “medicinal marijuana” becoming more and more available in the states.

This won’t help pay the BC mortgage.

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/politics/news/2010/05/01/california-referendum-could-deal-devastating-blow-bcs-lucrative-marijuana

#107 Bond Bull Done on 10.27.10 at 9:31 am

Phoenix Capital Research: When The Bond Bubble Bursts

And G talks of a Bullion Bunny Bubble?

However, the numbers don’t lie, we are most assuredly in a bond bubble. According to data compiled by Bloomberg and the Washington-based Investment Company Institute, investors have put almost as much money into bond funds in the two years ended June 2010 ($480 billion) as they did in equity mutual funds at the height of the Tech bubble from 1999-2000 ($496 billion).

And the insanity is literally across the board.

Forget Stocks, What Happens When the Bond Bubble Bursts?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/forget-stocks-what-happens-when-bond-bubble-bursts

A Bond Bubble in search of a pin(head).

#108 Got A Watch on 10.27.10 at 9:36 am

“NO FUTURE MONEY TO TORONTO” ha ha ha – dude, T.O. don’t get any money now. So that would be just more of the same. It’s politics, there is no political gain in giving money to Toronto, either at the Federal level or Provincial level.

As much as most seem to love to hate Toronto, the fact remains that Toronto and its GTA pay far more to Provincial and Federal coffers than they ever receive back in the form of any transfer payments. It all goes to “general revenue” at “higher levels” where it is fully squandered by idiots aka “our leaders”.

Let’s get real here: under the Miller Marxist Morons and the other clueless lefties who inhabit downtown Toronto, spending rose wildly, no entitlement was left behind, and unions and other hangers on got handsomely rewarded.

I would bet a forensic audit of Toronto’s books would reveal hundreds of millions if not billions of waste and government pork, in almost every area. The MMMs never saw a Budget they couldn’t bloat up with giveaways to supporters. So I think it will be a lot easier for Ford to cut spending back than many think.

This all reflects the “social mood” tectonic shift that is underway in our society, starting from the bottom and moving up. The big-budget big-spending politicians are always the last to realize the wind has changed direction.

It’s Austerity, for a decade or 3. Just talk to any survivors of the last ‘Great Depression’ – they permanently changed their spending/saving habits and attitudes to credit and risk taking, for the rest of their lives. Their children vividly recall the hard times growing up, and they did not fall back as easily to free spending. It takes generations for that curve to bottom and then turn up. The next “consumer spending boom” is scheduled for after 2050 or so.

This is all part of the long-wave economic cycle, aka ‘The Kondratieff Wave’. Which points to a bottom for the economy in the US in about 5-8 years roughly.

This decade will be one that most will wish they could skip.

#109 WINNIPEGER on 10.27.10 at 9:37 am

Household debt-to-income ratio (Q2/09): 142%

Total residential mortgage debt (11/09): $956 billion

Total household credit (as of Nov. 2009): $1.4 trillion

Percentage of mortgages in arrears (11/09): 0.44%

Sources: Bank of Canada, Canadian Bankers Assn.

What are the numbers now??????

#110 PTDBD on 10.27.10 at 9:39 am

“Where has all the money gone?”

The 74 American wealthiest earners in 2009 increased their income from an average of $91.2 million in 2008 to almost $519 million. Weekly pay – almost $10 Million a week.
Scary New Wage Data

Meanwhile, “the velocity of money” crowd is again stressing that money printing does not create inflation. “But that’s not inflation. It’s just rising prices.”
Just rising prices – ha,ha,ha. Yep, that’s all it is.
:-) going forward :-)

And that smell in the air during cold mornings….it’s not toilets being mistakenly routed into storm sewers in new developments. Nope, that’s just the smell of money.

#111 T.O. Bubble Boy on 10.27.10 at 9:40 am

To the Vancouver RE Pumpers:

On the new home sales side of things, October 2010 is on track to be the WORST in 16 years!

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainforest.blogspot.com/2010/10/days-go-by.html

Cheer on the “average” price increases all you want… when the average of $1M for a SFH is based on 1x $2M home and 3x $333k homes, the market is crashing.

#112 Cashman on 10.27.10 at 9:50 am

#42 HouseBuster on 10.26.10 at 11:41 pm

Before any housing is built there must be a soil sample taken if it is beside a known environmental hazard like a petro canada refinery.

Then afterwards, if given the all clear, millions of cheap aspenite houses are thrown together with glue and duct tape and sold off as ‘luxary’ homes.

As a former real estate appraiser, I can tell you exactly how todays mass produced houses are built: very cheaply. Why if the big bad wolf from Little Red Riding Hood fame were to even sneeze at these houses, there would be nothing left, except the basement.

Besides the homes for sale now are really overpiced and the sellers are looking for suckers, ahem, buyers. Especially those new home developers, who give you a big house and a postage stamp sized lot.

#113 WINNIPEGER on 10.27.10 at 9:50 am

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Featured_Videos/1555003082/ID=1625936848

Canada next—- 1st stop Vancouver

#114 Joel Toronto on 10.27.10 at 9:57 am

Not sure if this link has been posted yet.

http://www.moneysense.ca/2010/10/15/look-out-below/

#115 goldenfox on 10.27.10 at 9:58 am

This will make you angry:

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18690/how-a-gang-of-predatory-lenders-and-wall-street-bankers-fleeced-america-and-spawned-a-global-crisis

#116 WINNIPEGER on 10.27.10 at 10:00 am

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2010/10/27/us-durable-goods.html

Its only going to get worse!

#117 Jarrod on 10.27.10 at 10:03 am

Okay Mr. Krugman…err I mean Turner.

Let’s keep the taps open (pretend and extend) to avoid the inevitable correction. But don’t worry as the feds are going to Q-ease October third anyway.

P.S. How is Rob Ford homophobic…because he’s married to a woman? Soon the definition will be that if you haven’t slept with a man your homophobic.

#118 Jan Etter on 10.27.10 at 10:06 am

#42 Housebuster Re Lakeshore Woods – brownfield residential development has become more and more prevalent in GTA, see former landfill at Mavis & Britannia in Mississauga which is now a residential subdivision and golf course (Braeben, with vents to release the gases brewing underground!) and the high-end Mattamy Watercolours subdivision in Lorne Park built on an old oil storage facility.

#119 Timing is Everything on 10.27.10 at 10:07 am

#5 Debt Lover said – “In fact, I challenge anyone to point out another jurisdication in Canada where mortgage helpers are the norm, and where there is huge pressure on local governments to legalize secondary suites.”

Victoria

#120 TaxHaven on 10.27.10 at 10:11 am

#92 Bond Bull Done

MAYBE. Time for TBT? It’s had quite a boost yesterday and so far today so I’ll wait a day or two. If Bruce Krasting is right and the promised and priced-in QE turns out to be disappointingly LOW, it will be “risk off”. So the bond bubble may have a few weeks left…

BTW, Bill Gross has one of the best collections of U.S. stamps in existence. Anyone THAT dedicated to a hobby requiring diligent searching, research and exacting effort must be a straight shooter IMO

#121 np on 10.27.10 at 10:38 am

regarding the city of toronto:

you can fire half the workers, and see no drop in service. if you could fire the lazy drug and alcohol addcited ones. but the union protects them.

privaitze it all. contract it out. end of story.

#122 Willy H on 10.27.10 at 10:45 am

Got A Watch on 10.27.10 at 9:36 am

As much as most seem to love to hate Toronto, the fact remains that Toronto and its GTA pay far more to Provincial and Federal coffers than they ever receive back in the form of any transfer payments. It all goes to “general revenue” at “higher levels” where it is fully squandered by idiots aka “our leaders”.

_______________
Dead on! Cheque-book federalism. Unfortunately most RE crazed folks in T.O have no idea what is really happening. One bank economist noted a while back how the fed’s “Killed the Goose That Laid the Golden Egg” referring to their treatment of the GTA over many decades.

Not sure I agree with your prediction on the level of waste in T.O. I’ll bet the farm the biggest public expenditures are wages and benefits for Police, Firefighters*, TTC and City workers. According to Ontario Public Sector Salary Disclosures we have rookie cops earning $100K+ their first year on the job!

The biggest problem facing governments at all levels is the growing disparity between private sector pay and benefits and the public sector. In a downturn this is all magnified as the tax base shrinks, yet the average private sector worker is asked to ante up taxes to pay the public sectors rich benefits OR we just rack up debt!

Reigning in overtime, sick pay, and rich pensions is easier said than done. But we are likely better off going this route than slash and burn cutting jobs willy nilly for political gain.

Got A Watch on 10.27.10 at 9:36 am

This is all part of the long-wave economic cycle, aka ‘The Kondratieff Wave’. Which points to a bottom for the economy in the US in about 5-8 years roughly.

_______

Yup. Every 70 years or so. Here we go …

#123 Robert James on 10.27.10 at 10:48 am

#105 MP I was listening to CBC this morning here in the Okanagan and heard that report.. I would love to know how much dope money and money from crime in general has ended up buying BC real estate.. About a block away from where I live a house burned down last year that was a grow op that was recently bought and rented out by a Dr. in Vancouver.. With in five blocks there are 2 houses that are condemned because they were former grow ops and have been sitting for a year or so.. Anyone that buys a house in the OKanagan to rent out is absolutley insane.. There is not enough decent paying work here to live so a lot people end up growing dope…And now with the construction slowing down there may be more.. Of course if the price of dope drops by 80% it will make for even harder times here in the Best Place on Earth !! LOL

#124 Live within your means on 10.27.10 at 10:50 am

#14 Eviee1973 on 10.26.10 at 10:10 pm
Have noticed a record amount of open house signs here in Halifax area last Sunday, did look in the paper and online afterwards, none were priced to sell though.
……………

Was out doing some errands yesterday and noticed along the Waverley Road (Lake Micmac and Lake Charles) & a couple of streets above there are more listings than last week. The ones on the lakes are probably asking big bucks. A couple of houses a few streets from us have been for sale for at least 3 mos. Forget what they were going for. For the last 3 years, one 4 yr. old house has been put on the market each year, but remains unsold. It’s on a very small corner lot. Between decks they could probably pass a salt shaker. It’s obviously over priced.

#125 dark sad person on 10.27.10 at 10:55 am

#109 PTDBD on 10.27.10 at 9:39 am

Meanwhile, “the velocity of money” crowd is again stressing that money printing does not create inflation. “But that’s not inflation. It’s just rising prices.”
Just rising prices – ha,ha,ha. Yep, that’s all it is.
:-) going forward :-)

**********************

Money printing “is” Inflation–

You laugh at Velocity as if it means nothing and point to speculation by “Hot Money” into Commodities and somehow think that price spikes mean something other then simple speculation-
All the while ignoring the Deflationary effects of the Deflating Credit market-which dwarfs the Currency supply by a factor of about 20-1–

#126 Timing is Everything on 10.27.10 at 10:59 am

#12 nonplused said – “They say the only thing that is in infinate supply is human stupidity.”

Most people are not stupid. Assuming so is a poor way to go through life. ‘They’ are wrong.
Although, I did not know ‘Visigoth’. Does that make me stupid? You spell ‘infinate’. Does that make you stupid. No!
Garth’s a word guy, most of his writings are for entertainment, at this point in the blog, but the crux of his message has been told many times over. Keeps the dawgs reading. I will use some of his ideas, if I think it is best/work for my family. I will not do something just because it was a good idea for another.

Very smart people do stupid things from time to time. and stupid people get lucky (unlucky) all the time.

Usually, things/ideas take longer than expected…This is because we think faster than we can act. A perfectly great idea will flop if the timing is wrong. Remember, struggle is how you feel….just your opinion, emotional, a battle you fight with yourself about something. Effort is natural as we are physical beings. It takes effort to translate our thoughts/ideas to the physical world. Patience and timing.

“Just because one has a great idea is absolutely no reason to embark on it.” – Stuart Wilde

#127 Trino Tuta on 10.27.10 at 11:01 am

“Home prices rise 10.4% in 6 cities”

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2010/10/27/home-prices-august.html

….sigh….again…

#128 CTO on 10.27.10 at 11:02 am

#107 Got A Watch

I agree with “nearly” every word you said.

#129 CTO on 10.27.10 at 11:03 am

#107 Got A Watch

Actually dude, I’v read your comments and nearly always whole hardedly agree with them!
keep posting….

#130 Drake on 10.27.10 at 11:06 am

Collapse means anarchy. Don’t be an idiot. — Garth

It does, is that so bad? The state is what got us into this mess, getting rid of the state is the only thing that will get us out of it. Time we give spontaneous order a try.

Hope you have a bunker like mine. — Garth

#131 bullion.bunny on 10.27.10 at 11:20 am

Collapse means anarchy. Don’t be an idiot. — Garth

You are right collapse would be bad, I mean really bad. We have far too many people that are dependent on the system for a living. Of course all the wishful thinking and hoping will not fix the system.

Everything Bill Gross says is designed to make others react, so he can make more money. It’s time you learned that. — Garth

Yield on U.S. 30 year treasuries are heading to the moon, just like they did in every credit contraction, 1720,1770,1825,1873,1929 & 2000

#132 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 10.27.10 at 11:51 am

THE BEST LAID PLANS…

Y’know. In the final analysis it won’t matter a whit who wins next Tuesday’s US Mid-terms. Gridlock looks like the result with neither side able to claim a decisive victory.

Gridlock! At this time in American history that will surely have the effect of a consumed glass of hemlock on that whole shootin’ match!

But the prospect of such an outcome hasn’t stopped the dirty pool from continuing apace along the campaign trail. Just take a look at the Drudge Report. It reminds one of corrupted balloting in some central African dictatorship.

The Dems seem to be pulling out all the stops, legal, and otherwise, while Republicans are up to their usual tricks including assaulting some poor Dem activist.

This morning Bloomberg news reported this:

“U.S. House Republicans plan to try to slash $100 billion from the federal budget as early as January if they wrest power from Democrats in this year’s midterm elections, setting up possible early showdowns with President Barack Obama on taxes and spending.

A Republican House takeover would thrust new committee heads, such as Representative Dave Camp on the Ways and Means panel, into the spotlight within weeks — or days — of seizing their gavels in early January. They would confront quick political tests that could alienate independent voters and Tea Party activists alike, analysts said.

“The major issues are going to be fiscal, and fiscal issues are always contentious,” said Jack Pitney, a political science professor….”

Meanwhile the Dow is down this date because investors are now worried that the Fed, next week, may decide NOT to print ENOUGH new money to fire up the room temperature economy! Just what these investors are thinking is “enough” is not known.

So investors with critical thinking skills have “left the building” leaving behind whacked-out quants, cheesy speculators and other dysfunctionals to carry the can for the American Way of Life.

Meanwhile on the Left Coast we await our premier’s TV address this evening. Will he stay or will he go? I think he will go. It is writ large all over Canada and the US that incumbency, now, at election time is not a good place in which to reside.

#133 rory on 10.27.10 at 12:05 pm

#103 Mtl RE Observations and #81 pbrasseur

“yet the town raises taxes to supply it’s employees pension funds and just signed a generous collective agreement with its blue collars, a group that takes on average 4 weeks in sick days every year on top of very generous vacations.”

Wow …4 weeks avg sick time …if anywhere close to the truth the fleecing that is taking place borders on the criminal. How can any business afford that – I know unions and .gov = taxpayer money?

Time for the some long overdo sensible changes …NAW, not going to happen …we are talking about Quebec here …they are different now you know why?

As to the cost, the Bloc yipping in Ottawa and the transfer payment sytem will continue to bail out Que. Still gets me that a have not province has better benefits than haves… amazing!

#134 Sitting on a fence in Ottawa on 10.27.10 at 12:09 pm

#11 Ottawa Pete

This house was recently re-listed for $299K, after it was originally listed for $329K in July and then again for $319k in August. I went to see it during an open house and wasn’t too impressed. A Mish-mash of finishings and design, no backyard and the backyard it did have was backing on to a schoolyard. That’s exactly what I want, kids running up to my fence all day, errant balls flying into my yard/house, people walking their dogs behind my house on the weekend. I see this time it is listed with a new agent, the “your home sold or we’ll buy it” guys. Good luck.

#135 rory on 10.27.10 at 12:19 pm

Read to the end of the article as to why the Public Service Unions are endorsing CPP reform to abuse us taxpayers even more …is it starting to hurt yet?

http://fairpensionsforall.blogspot.com/2010/10/canadas-pension-options.html

#136 Crash Callaway on 10.27.10 at 12:31 pm

Hey great pic!

Reminds me of Jean Chretien reaching for that protester to give him the “Shawinigan Handshake”

#137 Victor on 10.27.10 at 12:34 pm

Hi Garth, I know there are many views out there, but this one from the Post today is suggesting oil is heading back to the $60 range. Do you still believe we’re heading north of $100 or have recent events changed your mind about this commodity?

http://business.financialpost.com/2010/10/27/crude-oil-prices-to-slide-to-us60-range-in-2011-capital-economics/

#138 joseph on 10.27.10 at 12:41 pm

“No jobs,” she said, “no hope. People are pissed.”

Why “no hope”? Come to Alberta, lots of jobs here.

I drive around Calgary and see Hiring signs at construction sites, lots of restaurants are hiring, oil industry is strong… Not everything is perfect, we’ve got a glut of commercial space on the market, but overall the economy is very strong.

This in spite of Calgary RE prices being down 15-20% from 2007… So if Garth is right on his predicitons than why aren’t we seeing the impact in Calgary? People losing 10’s of thousands of dollars on their homes in the past 3 years does not seem to be negatively impacting them very much.

#139 WINNIPEGER on 10.27.10 at 12:42 pm

A house flipping story-

Bought for 199K…… price has been reduced—located one block outside city limits (lower taxes). A new garage , few renos….and here it sits!

http://manitoba.comfree.com/home-for-sale-east-st-paul-manitoba-208306?sms_ss=email&at_xt=4cc85d3be3859185,0#description

#140 james on 10.27.10 at 12:43 pm

I’ll get hammered for this, perhaps… But many Americans are also fed-up w/Obama and crew’s social agenda for America. It’s not all about the economy; many moderates are not happy with what they see as a radical, unprecedented shift to the left that does not have the support of most Americans – even those who voted for Obama – and that has also been forced down their collective gullets.

No matter how rosey the media paints Obama the person, and his administration… They have an agenda.

Which is failing. Daily. With swift speed.

(Note: I am not party-partisan. Neither party would get my support)

#141 PTDBD on 10.27.10 at 12:52 pm

@dark sad person

– the only thing I know about “velocity of money” is how quick it flys out of my wallet
– as for money printing/inflation/deflation…all I know is that my friggin bills are going up

That’s all I have to knwo, te rest is bullshit and I’ll keep my feet out of it.

The paperprestidigitizer wizards are experimenting with an explosive trial & error agenda. They forget that they are not in University anymore and hurting the lifes of millions. Who wants an “Expert on The Depression” testing his theories, except for the 74 people that make $10 million a week?

Things are FUBAR. Way back when this site was political, I posted that bearded Bernanke’s policies were wrong and that Fannie and Freddy would go down hard. He is still wrong, only now we are talking Trillions.

#142 PTDBD on 10.27.10 at 12:55 pm

@ #130 VICTORIA TEA PARTY – excellent observations & great style

#143 noplused on 10.27.10 at 1:03 pm

In case anyone missed it.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/carney-stays-positive-about-housing/article1773964/

Why doesn’t he just come right out and say it: “There are no factors left that can be further exploited to support the housing market. Prices have peaked.”

Almost certainly if the BOC Govn’r is talking about a “chance” of a sharp fall, it’s an almost certainty the wheels are about to come off. That’s how these guys communicate in public. Remeber big Ben’s “Contained to Subprime” speaches? That was code word to his croonies to “whatch what happens to subprime so you can figure out what happens when we remove the word “contained”.

Mark is firing a memo over to the guys who run the banks that he expects them to have a plan if the market goes south, and even crosses the border.

#144 Mister Obvious on 10.27.10 at 1:24 pm

This just in (Vancouver Sun at 10:27 am PST):

To paraphrase: “The rate of housing price increases is on the decline”.

You bet. Here’s the essential bit…

“Looking ahead, prices are likely to fluctuate without tendency over the next few years,” Pinsonneault said. “At the national level, current market conditions, close to the boundary between balanced market and buyers’ market, herald a deceleration in home price deflation. Also, house prices are undoubtedly high, and affordability rests on historically low mortgage rates. People will realize that rates are due to go up sooner or later. When that happens, preference for renting instead of buying should increase.”

More:

http://tinyurl.com/25y5cby

#145 PTDBD on 10.27.10 at 1:24 pm

Whatever you think of PIMCO or Bill Gross, his latest article is worth your time. His political comments apply to Canadian voters also.

#146 sue on 10.27.10 at 1:26 pm

list on http://www.realtysellers.ca for FREE and only a 0.5% full service commission by the agent. It is a new world out there. Some full priced realtors are going to have to get another line of employment I think.

#147 sue on 10.27.10 at 1:26 pm

List on mls for free I meant to say…..

#148 Devore on 10.27.10 at 1:36 pm

#115 Jarrod

P.S. How is Rob Ford homophobic…because he’s married to a woman? Soon the definition will be that if you haven’t slept with a man your homophobic.

Well, there was an undercurrent of homophobia, don’t you know? And when one of the candidates officially admitted defeat, there was cheering. And flyers printed by who knows who, in a language no one commenting can read, were filled with gay bashing propaganda.

Oh how easily we’re led by our noses.

#149 goldenfox on 10.27.10 at 1:45 pm

Deflation could get a kick in the #%&lls

Most people on this blog are counting on a deflationary collapse of house prices. You may well be right . What if you are wrong. For example their are rumors out there that because of the burgeoning financial crisis, that there will soon be a banking holiday called. Overnight there would be a devaluation of all currencies. For example, new money could be printed up and you would get $1 of new money for $2 of old money. It would mean that all holders of bonds, GIC’s, cash etc would see their holdings cut in half. Wages and asset prices would remain the same and those with debt, would see their debt cut in half. It would be game on. Defation would get a kick in the #%&lls.

#150 Prem on 10.27.10 at 2:27 pm

Jimbo #87 “Here is something to ponder.

It’s the end of October, The Brampton Real Estate Board still has not published its Housing stats for Sept.

Something they don’t want us to see”

Brampton got hit hard. Brampton is crashing so hard that yes the brampton RE board refuses to report the numbers. A friend of mine is a realtor in brampton and he said the market is dead. My family was lucky to sell in May. Goodluck to everyone in Canada. You will all need it.

#151 FormerVanCityOwner on 10.27.10 at 2:48 pm

Where to put proceeds from a sale and keep it safe for ‘vulching’?

Garth says preferreds are the way to go…too risky for me, those share prices bounce around a fair bit.
Garth says no to Orange Guy shorts….agreed, 1.5% is not pleasant

How about short bond ETF’s (ex. XSB)? Completely liquid, low commissions and they pay about 4-4.5% interest. Their only downside risk is quickly rising interest rates, in which case the resulting spectacular housing crash will provide a far bigger ‘gain’ than the loss of the ETF.

Seems like a good place to park money and hedge against extended low interest rates and housing slow melt. What do you think?

You’ve got to be kidding. — Garth

#152 BrianT on 10.27.10 at 2:52 pm

#147Golden-IMO you are not repeating the rumour accurately. Your scenario sees PIMCO take a 50% haircut while guv wages double-who exactly is going to double private sector wages? Contrary to MSM spin, what is currently happening in the USA is a DEPRESSION, and it cannot be cured by sleight of hand. In fact, devaluation of currencies is undertaken to lower real wages, never to increase wages-there is a gigantic oversupply of workers in the USA.

#153 dark sad person on 10.27.10 at 2:54 pm

Iceland Wants Failed Banker Criminal Probes Sped Up

Iceland’s parliamentary committee in charge of probing the country’s financial collapse wants to speed up investigations of former bank executives and ensure criminal acts are prosecuted soon.

“I’m growing impatient waiting for indictments from the special prosecutor,” said Atli Gislason, chairman of the committee that last month recommended former Prime Minister Geir H. Haarde be indicted, in an interview in Reykjavik. “I have strong indications that there was a lot of criminal activity within the banks from the beginning of 2008 leading up to their collapse; criminal acts were committed.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aECzwEGN6T3Q

******************

Too bad only Iceland has Citizens that are not too chickenshit to speak out and bring accountability/justice to the perpetrators of the collapse-
Line up for your food stamps Canadians-it’s much safer-

btw–someone above mentioned e-mailing MP’s and demanding an end to this-

I always thought that was a good idea and if enough people had the ambition or were not “afraid” of being put on some asshole bullshit Terrorist no fly list-actually did it-
It might have an effect-but-as it stands now-
Here’s the response you’ll receive-guaranteed-
Only the “name” of the MP will be different-

****************

Thank you for your e-mail message. I appreciate having the benefit of your views.

This response is an acknowledgment that we received your message and will make note of your comments. Constituents of Calgary Center seeking a further response who have included a postal address in their message will receive a reply via Canada Post as soon as possible.

If your original message did not include your full mailing address and you would like a response to your comments, please resend the text of your message along with your full mailing address.

If your original message did include your address, or if you do not desire a response to your message, you do not need to send an additional message.

Constituents requiring immediate assistance can phone the constituency office at (403) 244-1880 or the Parliament Hill office at (613) 995-1561.

For more information about the work I do as Member of Parliament for Calgary Center, please visit my web site at http://www.leerichardson.ca

Sincerely,

Lee Richardson, MP
Calgary Center

********************

There ya go-
We’re out here all alone-no voice-a handful of no count bloggers-
Maybe in the future-we could pool our food stamps and order a Pizza-maybe some beer too-

#154 Devil's Advocate on 10.27.10 at 3:07 pm

“citizens had just eschewed a former provincial deputy premier and seasoned politician and elected as mayor a blustery, untelegenic, homophobic local councilor with a dodgy past who promised to slash government and Javex city hall. It was a right-wing sweep and a repudiation of political insiders” – Garth

Democracy… go figure eh? ;-)

Are you implying that only a “seasoned politician” is capable of governance? I personally think we could use a fresh approach in alternative to the stodgy Old Boys Clubs from which you yourself were evicted Garth. But then I am but an “unethical” REALWHORE who sells homes with gross neglect of the financial Armageddon of peril I am allowing my clients to enter by doing so. I should better be advising all my happy past clients to sell their homes and buy dividend paying bank stocks.

Yes maybe some things need be changed.

#155 dark sad person on 10.27.10 at 3:10 pm

#147 goldenfox on 10.27.10 at 1:45 pm

Deflation could get a kick in the #%&lls

Most people on this blog are counting on a deflationary collapse of house prices. You may well be right . What if you are wrong. For example their are rumors out there that because of the burgeoning financial crisis, that there will soon be a banking holiday called. Overnight there would be a devaluation of all currencies. For example, new money could be printed up and you would get $1 of new money for $2 of old money. It would mean that all holders of bonds, GIC’s, cash etc would see their holdings cut in half. Wages and asset prices would remain the same and those with debt, would see their debt cut in half. It would be game on. Defation would get a kick in the #%&lls.

*******************

Man-did you interpret that assbackwards-
Even “if” they did exercise that ridiculous notion-
It would be Deflation-F F sakes–
They’re decreasing the money supply by that action-

#156 Moneta on 10.27.10 at 3:21 pm

For example, new money could be printed up and you would get $1 of new money for $2 of old money. It would mean that all holders of bonds, GIC’s, cash etc would see their holdings cut in half.
——–
Such a drastic move would tank the economy. Many companies would go under and jobs would be lost. That would mean many people unable to make their mortgage payments.

#157 Timing is Everything on 10.27.10 at 3:22 pm

#147 goldenfox

Hmm, very interesting? Why not? The rules can be changed at anytime. It’s all funny money (paper).
Any references to these ‘rumours’?

Damn, I gotta get some more sno-cones.

#158 Sail1 on 10.27.10 at 3:29 pm

#103 Mtl RE Observations

Not to worry, people in Quebec are covered.
As long as the separatist keep getting elected they can keep blackmailing the rest of the country very easily.

#159 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.27.10 at 3:41 pm


#170 Future Expatriate on 10.27.10 at 1:19 am

Merci beaucoup! I checked the site. All things seem to be taking place as they should.

Cheers!
*
#4 Basil Fawlty — “The US is stuck between a rock and a hard place.”

TPTB are doing a thoroughly magnificent job of confusing the hell out of us, which is the way they operate.

They are Legends In Their Own Minds for posters here, as most have seen this coming for a while now.

#33 Boombust — “Yes. Please. Anyone. Someone with a better hairdo.”

I lost all my (marbles) donkey’s years ago and most things that went with it, including hair, so I volunteer! Can I get some help to run Ottawa from Kelowna?

#38 realpaul — “. . . won’t that be bad for gold?”

The WH already confiscated gold once during the ’30s, there is hardly any gold in Fort Knox, the IMF is selling plenty to Chindia so the west doesn’t have much of anything left.

Time for another confiscation of precious metals, to increase TPTB’s wealth?

#39 Dan in Victoria — The Flintstones. The west must make do with considerably less than what we’ve got now.

#40 dark sad person — “Bread and Circus Control-Deflation and Poverty for the masses-Few will escape– / No Debt—NONE–Cash baby Cash–”

Excellent reminder to pay everything down or off ASAP, CCs especially. Then change or renew into an RRSP mortgage if possible.

#58 Jojo — “-Depression and RE crash, Hyper inflation [or] Global War or WW III.”

Crash and WW3 go hand in hand quite nicely. TPTB need another WW to re-generate their profits. A crash first will put them on their way. Hyperinflation may / may not come from the politicos.

#74 David B — “. . . it will cost 3-4 times as much and y’all will get taken.”

That’s what Harper was put in place for — to choke taxpayers slowly to death while spending beyond Pluto. The piper is calling his due debts now.

Harper, like Obama have both done their jobs very well, and no doubt they will be handsomely rewarded.

#88 eddy — “The pyramid will inevitably collapse.” — Already started, heading down.

#100 bullion.bunny — “Where has all the money gone?” See 6:36 clip further down. Gives a better explanation.

#106 Bond Bull Done, #107 Got A Watch — (“The next “consumer spending boom” is scheduled for after 2050 or so. This is all part of the long-wave economic cycle, aka ‘The Kondratieff Wave’.”), #118 TaxHaven — (“MAYBE. Time for TBT?”), #123 dark sad person — (“Money printing “is” Inflation”), #129 bullion.bunny — (“Yield on U.S. 30 year treasuries are heading to the moon, just like they did in every credit contraction, 720,1770,1825,1873,1929 & 2000”) — Recall the song by Bread? “What Goes Up Must Come Down / Spinning Wheel Goes Round And Round”.

Not only is The Kondatrieff Cycle changing, there are plenty of other cycles ending (such as the Roman Catholic Church’s cycle) and many which we don’t even take into account, all of which are concluding their set of lifecycles.

It’s how we, as individuals, cope with all these changes.

#109 PTDBD — “Where has all the money gone? Nope, that’s just the smell of money.”

Good post, and it is easy to understand why everything is out of kilter, nothing aligns anymore.

#120 Willy H — “Yup. Every 70 years or so. Here we go …”

It is time for another field goal attempt but, unfortunately, most sheeple will be left holding the short end of the stick. See the 6:36 clip further down.

#130 VICTORIA TEA PARTY — “. . . the Left Coast we await our premier’s TV address this evening.”

Not me! Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy! are far more interesting and better entertainment than politicos can ever match!

#138 james — “. . . They have an agenda. Which is failing. Daily. With swift speed.”

Good point, as worldwide things are happening and going downhill in the west much faster than anticipated.
*
Perpetual Debt $780 bln. is approx. Canada’s total money supply, of which five per cent is actual cash. The remainder is created and stored on computers, which can easily be switched off and hard drives wiped clean. 6:36 clip.

#160 Pat on 10.27.10 at 3:42 pm

@ #14 Eviee1973 and #122 Live within your means on

According to my estimates, the number of listing in a 20 km radius around Hfx are now about 20% less than on Nov. 13, 2009.

Median price today ~ $280K. Median on 11.13.2009 ~ $250K. Median detached SFH today ~ $305K.

Median in south end Hfx – $450K. Median detached SFH in south end – $750K.

#161 Devore on 10.27.10 at 3:56 pm

Anyone notice the House Porn Channel “for sale” shows are increasingly showing very distressed sellers, and quite often the price drops are so severe they cannot afford to sell, and end up renting? I’m not a regular viewer, but it seems the transition was quite seamless.

#162 timbo on 10.27.10 at 3:59 pm

Brian #150
“Contrary to MSM spin, what is currently happening in the USA is a DEPRESSION, and it cannot be cured by sleight of hand. In fact, devaluation of currencies is undertaken to lower real wages, never to increase wages-there is a gigantic oversupply of workers in the USA.”

100% correct.

and to add deflation is shrinkage of the money supply. This is happening because debt default is taking money out of the private system forcing the public system to either do nothing and create insolvent banks or print money QE2 and cover losses.

they are dropping the dollar to stimulate growth because economics in the last 20+ years have been based on ponzi bubbles. A lower dollar means that manufacturing can compete at home with imports,create jobs and solidify a tax base.

I never said this was right only that this is how it is. Protect yourself because if our dollar rises to a point where we become too expensive we lose in the currency war.

#163 Alex on 10.27.10 at 4:09 pm

Check out this piece of garbage:

http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=9739515&PidKey=-70300632

A 1-bed tear-down crack shack with solid 19th century construction. And on the very edge of YVR’s runways. A half million dollars. !!!!!

The listing says they’re open to all offers. So I wrote the realtor, told her it was worth no more than $100,000, and offered as much. You think I’ll hear anything? :-)

#164 timbo on 10.27.10 at 4:41 pm

Calif. pot vote threatens B.C. bud industry

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2010/10/27/bc-california-proposition-marijuana.html#ixzz13aZSGFQz

lol, there goes the west coast housing market…….

#165 Mtl RE Observations on 10.27.10 at 4:47 pm

#133 rory – I hear you. I would gladly leave the politics and province for better opportunities elsewhere, especially as an English writer. But my husband, who is French and has children and family here, won’t leave. Since selling our condo this spring and reading this blog and other sources, I’m not sure whether I would sink my money in real estate again, especially in a place where opportunities are only going to go down and the cost of living will go up.

#166 Jarrod on 10.27.10 at 5:17 pm

#148 Devore on 10.27.10 at 1:36 pm

You seem to imply that George Smitherman lost the election because he is a homosexual married to a man.
Weren’t you reading or listening to the news? Perhaps the following may refresh your memory.
http://www.badanswer.ca/

P.S. There was loud booing at the Smitherman headquarters while he congratulated Rob Ford for his victory.

P.P.S. Why don’t you elaborate on who it is that believe authored and distributed those flyers and what they contained?

#167 Gajananvihari on 10.27.10 at 5:37 pm

Prem # 150

Perm you go home to India? I go back home since no good work to find. Canada is good for credit to buy home but not much work. We lucky we know guy at bank who give us money for house. Now We sell and take money back home to start business. Money hard to make in Canada but credit easy. Many look to sell now and go home for better future. Thank-you Canada.

#168 Brian1 on 10.27.10 at 5:47 pm

People of Toronto,
Sell your house pronto.

#169 Snowman on 10.27.10 at 5:52 pm

Here is an interesting read:

The REAL reason for big investors’ apocalyptic warnings about Fed

Unfortunately they have not mentioned you Garth in there, which is ashame, cause no doubt you’re one of the top marketing guruz in Canada. Dave made the list though ….

#170 Randman on 10.27.10 at 6:42 pm

“- the only thing I know about “velocity of money” is how quick it flys out of my wallet
– as for money printing/inflation/deflation…all I know is that my friggin bills are going up

That’s all I have to knwo, te rest is bullshit and I’ll keep my feet out of it.”

This is exactly why we are are in the mess we’re in…

Ignorance and apathy

The rest…is not BS!

To many people like you assuming government will
deal with all the details

Got news for ya…the buck stops with you

If you can’t take time to understand how inflation
QE and velocity of money works…then I for one
don’t feel sorry for you

You sound like those in the USA
Who signed their mortgage without reading or understanding terms and conditions

Read the parable of the frog in the boiling water

I’m sorry but I’m sick of no one wanting to take
responsability for their financial decisions

#171 jess on 10.27.10 at 6:46 pm

45north
where was the “sharp” guy during all of New Jersey’s corruption and money laundering? And it seems “development” is always the pawn
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/24/nyregion/24jersey.html

#172 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.27.10 at 7:02 pm


#156 Moneta — “Such a drastic move would tank the economy.”

Don’t bet against it. TPTB are quite ruthless at what they do. We are expendable.
*
Now, Im not overly bright but it seems to me that what sheeples are failing to see is that this is a whole new ball game. No rules, or previous histories to look back and compare, as to what is already taking place. This is not the 30’s.

There is a “created” Elite Combo cocktail and they are mixing it well.

1) One part inflation. Inflating only the necessities required in life — food, fossil fuels, etc. which means oil will be flying soon

2) One part deflation (value of homes dropping, buying power of our dollar dropping due to nonstop printing and thereby devaluing of fiat currencies.)

Sheeple will still be happy because they can still buy their toys at further reduced prices, enslaving them even further into debt, taking their minds away from the real issues.

3) One part stagflation (yes, stagflation: a period of slow economic growth and high unemployment
— stagnation — while prices rise (inflation)

Tastes toxic, so add bitters. Coming soon to a country near you.
*
Insider Selling “The ring leaders are cashing out!” wrh.com.

Fraud Bigger than expected?

Questions / comments by wrh.com are good: “Two obvious questions here…

“1. Where was that passenger jet flying TO?

“2. How did authorities KNOW that the information on the laptop was not authorized? I’ve talked to TSA at security gates many times. Most cannot even operate a computer competently let alone read a technical document about physics and understand it. Not that there is anything on it (I have a separate “clean” netbook for traveling but nobody has ever scanned it for the contents.

“This reeks of a setup, like today’s “just in time to distract from the crashing bank scandals” terror arrest.”

Just In Time to deal with a fiscal collapse — another war to keep our attention glued to the goggle box.

Bankers Gone Wild! “A PRIMER (with new info.) ON HOW WALL STREET PULLED OFF THE GREATEST MORTGAGE INVESTMENT SWINDLE IN HISTORY WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE US GOVERNMENT!” So it was an inside job (such as 9-11) in order to destroy the middle and lower classes.
Nice Chart Inflation.

Martial Law Ahh, where would we be without it? Ask TPTB.

20,000 tons of the shiny yellow metal stuff, free ofl tungsten and Monsanto. 100% certified raw organic!

Spanish Paella “The engineered demise of private home ownership…” wrh.com.

Monsanto Speaking of the devil . . .

Gristmill “The government destroyed the working class and the middle class sat still thinking, “Thank goodness we are above all that.”

“Think again. The feeding frenzy moves higher and higher, along with the cracks in the entire economic system.” wrh.com.
Politicians Are Liars “Somebody blinked on this. What happens after the elections, however, on this issue is anyone’s guess, particularly with Israel’s pressure for a US-led attack on Iran.” wrh.com.
One Trillion Buddy, can you spare a trillion?

James Corbett on a cashless society. 13:31 ckip.

0:53 clip Entire police force quits in a small town in Mexico.
1:03 clip Chinese professor. “”Actually, our solution is to borrow everything the other nations will let us, then nuke everybody we owe money to. Pretty cool, huh?” — Official White Horse Souse” wrh.com.

#173 Randman on 10.27.10 at 7:07 pm

This should put to rest those gold naysayers and
bubble promoters once and for all

When John Embry who is one of the most respected financial minds in Canada speaks…people should listen

John Embry continues:

“With the economic outlook deteriorating, more quantitative easing on the horizon globally, currency unrest mounting everywhere and physical supplies of gold and silver dwindling, the powers-that-be have their work cut out for them if they hope to keep the prices of gold and silver in check.

The suggestion that gold is in a bubble phase is the latest tactic of the anti-gold crowd, whose predictions, incidentally, for the price of gold and silver have now been consistently wrong for 10 years.

Jimmy Rogers, who is one of the world’s leading authorities on commodities, dealt with the bubble issue recently by recounting an interesting anecdote. While addressing a group of high-end money managers, he inquired as to how many of them held gold or silver in their accounts and, remarkably, 75 percent replied that they had never owned either precious metal.

As far as I’m concerned, that put to rest any idea that we are even remotely close to a bubble in gold or silver. When gold is trading at several multiples of the current price at some point in the future, you can be assured that every single person at a similar gathering would be long and then discussion of a bubble might be legitimate. In my considered opinion, we are many years and thousands of dollars in price away from that debate.”

Investors should continue to use weakness in gold and silver to accumulate both metals. Buy gold & silver and take delivery of the physical, do not use paper instruments. These monetary instruments will have you outside of the system, which will in all likelihood collapse at some point.

#174 Sam on 10.27.10 at 7:13 pm

#107 Bond Bull Done on 10.27.10 at 9:31 am

> Phoenix Capital Research: When The Bond Bubble Bursts

> And G talks of a Bullion Bunny Bubble?

However, the numbers don’t lie, we are most assuredly in a bond
> bubble. According to data compiled by Bloomberg and the
> Washington-based Investment Company Institute, investors have put
> almost as much money into bond funds in the two years ended June
> 2010 ($480 billion) as they did in equity mutual funds at the height
> of the Tech bubble from 1999-2000 ($496 billion).

> And the insanity is literally across the board.

There’s no context given there, not even a link to the data to let you draw your own context.

How much is that money compared to “normal” ?

ZH has a pile of good stuff, but on the face of it, this is just more of their bigger pile, the cr*pola pile. Add this to the pile.

#175 BrianT on 10.27.10 at 7:16 pm

Denninger is really hammering away at this foreclosuregate-reading his summaries really does make the USA seem like a nation with a third world real property legal framework-like something you might expect from Costa Rica or Argentina. I haven’t done extensive research on this one, but at this point I don’t quite understand the USA title search process or even the real estate lawyer’s duties-you have these firms foreclosing without any legal documentation (just creating it as necessary, forging signatures where necessary, etc. etc.)-meanwhile you have everybody near the top like Obama saying this is no big deal, just minor technicalities. That is like saying any signed contract is just a minor technicality. The thing is, you can get slammed as a “doomer” but I thought I was cynical and I didn’t expect this level of organized and condoned breaking of the law in the USA-not on this scale. You are talking about maybe hundreds of thousands of persons openly practicing large scale financial fraud, not even being penalized when apprehended! Unbelieveable-and it barely ruffles the wool on the sheep.

#176 ottawa pete on 10.27.10 at 7:30 pm

Re: comments on my post re: Listings microburst and Ottawa broker gossip:

I was talking about regular mls listings and what agents and brokers might whisper in their rare candid moments.

Re: fee-based advisor in Ottawa: You might interview Imran Syed – seems like a solid fellow – we belonged to the same tennis club a few years back:

http://www.feebasedadvisor.ca/

#177 Ben on 10.27.10 at 7:33 pm

#138 joseph on 10.27.10 at 12:41 pm

I left Alberta because of no jobs in my work, then again I don’t wear a hard hat.

#178 Bond Bull Done on 10.27.10 at 7:49 pm

Long Bonds are we Sam #174?

Got Greater Fool written on your bonce?

#179 jess on 10.27.10 at 8:19 pm

#115 goldenfox

..Truth is a slow drip that seems to take years . could you speed that up please and slow my life down at the same time so i live long enough to read the outcome.

Just ask the innocent that are held in prison for decades

#180 bullion.bunny on 10.27.10 at 8:19 pm

There are currently scores of million-dollar spreads for sale,

I plan to buy one of these for $150,000…..see you soon

This blog would be taken over by bullion Huns and Visigoths, resplendent in their iron helmets, broadswording off the limbs of anyone without enough gold to save their pathetic metrosexual skins.

I’ll wear my new crown around the Visigoths/Hun kingdom.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CoronaRecesvinto01.JPG

#181 Moneta on 10.27.10 at 8:36 pm

#156 Moneta — “Such a drastic move would tank the economy.”

Don’t bet against it. TPTB are quite ruthless at what they do. We are expendable.

——-
I’m not betting against it. IMO, at this point anything is possible. I’m just saying such a move would tank the economy.

#182 Dan on 10.27.10 at 8:39 pm

The housing crash is getting worse by the day , week and month. Look at the realtors running scared spreading their propaganda of lies as sale have CRASHED HARD. Anyone buying into realtors propaganda will lose hundreds of thousands of dollars as the housing crash goes from bad to worse. Will you be the next greater fool?

Realtors blame HST for sales slowdown
http://www.moneyville.ca/article/881923–realtors-blame-hst-for-sales-slowdown

POP……………………What was that?

Realtors……….i…it…….it’s the HST. ya IT’S THE HST! Please you stupid greater fools believe the lie or else I will lose my BMW.

Mortgage brokers………No one can qualify. Very few greater fools.

#183 BrianT on 10.27.10 at 8:41 pm

Most aren’t interested, but oil depletion is by far the most underreported story out there-for years many have claimed that reserve estimates are wildly overstated (and have been derided as conspiracy theorists)-this is the latest-in 2002 experts said 10.6 billion barrels of oil in Alaska-they missed the mark slightly-now they are saying less than TEN PERCENT of that total is actually there http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/10/27/alaska.oil.reserves/index.html

#184 realpaul on 10.27.10 at 8:51 pm

Wow…the battle of the Titans. The day after the case Shiller report came out and showed that house prices have started to fall again…the government ( who has to fend off an election on Tuesday) filed a report that showed the opposite…that house sales had risen 6% in the same period…Who can we believe…weigh in Garth.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/10/housing_markets

This price rise report was effective in moving the precious metals prices down today….just perception…classic wall of worry? The reality is the some form of QE2 is coming and that house prices and the general economy are still tanking. Obama can twist and lie all he wants…but you can’t keep the truth out of the room forever…..look at Toronto….Fords election proves that the Liberal cranks can fool some of the people some of the time…but can’t fool all the people all of the time.

#185 45north on 10.27.10 at 8:59 pm

Jess: where was the “sharp” guy during all of New Jersey’s corruption and money laundering?

the link you posted is dated July 23 2009:

The arrests had immediate reverberations in the governor’s race, and a member of Gov. Jon S. Corzine’s administration was forced to resign after federal agents raided his home.

apparently he was not governor

#186 45north on 10.27.10 at 9:00 pm

he being the “sharp” guy

#187 bullion.bunny on 10.27.10 at 9:03 pm

#159 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 10.27.10 at 3:41 pm

“Where has all the money gone?”

Watch this….like I said, lots of grease.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__Timwt6lRY&feature=related

#188 S.B. on 10.27.10 at 9:04 pm

Kind of off topic but of interest to blog dawgs in general – and in keeping with some of Nostradamus’s posts (de-population agenda)? I recall Apple’s Ipad was initially banned in some countries (e.g. Israel) due to its super strong Wi-Fi signal…

“DENVER – As little as four hours of exposure to laptops with WiFi can damage sperm, according to a recent study by the American Society for Reproduction in Denver.

“This is the first scientific study showing that a laptop computer connected by WiFi may damage DNA and decrease sperm motility,” Conrado Avendano, Research Director at the Nascentis Reproductive Medical Center in Argentina, stated in a news release Wednesday”

http://www.9news.com/news/article.aspx?storyid=160158&catid=339

I thought you knew this was a eunuch-only site. — Garth

#189 dark sad person on 10.27.10 at 9:11 pm

#178 Bond Bull Done on 10.27.10 at 7:49 pm

**************************

Bond bull not even close to being done–

If people think Bonds are in a bubble-then they must be expecting good Economic news and the Stock Market to continue higher and that Credit will start flowing and Inflation will return with a vengeance-
Bond Bears must think Bernanke can pull this off with QE-or somehow instill risk back into the Stock and Credit Markets-
Gold is up–Bonds are up–Stock Market is up-
One of those 3 are wrong-imo-
I’m betting it’s the Stock Market-and-
If I’m right and risk remains high (Gold/Bonds) will continue on a Bull run-for a long time yet–

#190 BrianT on 10.27.10 at 9:25 pm

This crazy looting of the US treasury (cheered on by the MSM) is just getting ridiculous. The latest is that the Fed is going to take anywhere from 2 to 7 trillion dollars from the taxpayer and buy up t-bill and MBS-the thing is, the MSM never gives the reader any perspective-2 trillion dollars would build between 25000-50000 miles of high speed rail (7 trillion up to 350000 miles). That is a lot of high speed rail. The laugher is that this latest scam won’t even produce one job-I wonder if building 350000 miles of high speed rail would employ anybody? I forgot-the USA cannot build high speed rail-they are broke and cannot afford such a luxury-good thing Bernanke’s handlers aren’t encumbered by trivial things like budgets http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-07/bernanke-s-2-trillion-may-buy-little-improvement-in-unemployment-prices.html

#191 BrianT on 10.27.10 at 9:28 pm

The thing is, a trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon you are talking real money.

#192 Brian1 on 10.27.10 at 9:29 pm

Actually the governments know exactly what they are doing. They know how bad it is going to get and they are prepared. They are just not going to tell you. Some will win and some will lose. Gold will not make it.

#193 Patz on 10.27.10 at 11:16 pm

#5 Debt Lover
“Face it, after two years of emergency interest rates, they are not going anywhere quick. Stock markets are moving, with all the cheap cash floating around. No black swan events on the horizon my house poor bears.”

Words to live by or words to eat? I think I’m gonna go with the latter—would you like fries with that?

Demographics be the alligator that’s gonna bite yo’ skinny ass. According to Ellen Dunham–Jones, professor of architecture at Georgia Tech 70% of the homeowners in the US suburbs are boomers with no kids living at home. Rates of poverty are also rising in the suburbs faster than anywhere else. She was in Vancouver to give a talk on revitalizing the ‘burbs.

Now there’s a Quixotic project if ever there was. Wonder if she’s heard of peak oil?
“Damn we’ve just refurbished all these freakin’ malls and now nobody can afford gas!”

#194 Steven Rowlandson on 10.28.10 at 4:38 am

Hello Garth.
Welcome to the new dark ages and there is no way it is ever going to be too nasty, brutish and short.
A welcome 300 years over due but what the hell.
Rob Ford may prove to be too moderate to get the job done right. We need extremely frugal, blood thursty kill the politically correct and criminal and pervert scum kind of leadership that will not only refuse to borrow but also insist on turning the social and moral clock back 300 years wiping out all the reforms wrought by the illuminati and their shills. Monetarily that means
gold,silver and copper coinage and nothing else as currency. That is truly what being conservative means. It also means no politicians.
This experiment with democracy,communism,satanism and fiat currencies has damned near brough the world to ruin. What is the dark ages? It is an age where there is very little in the way of the makings of genuine civilization. No real money, poor education if any, mass poverty and debt, crappy morals and a constant state of brigandage and plunder. By that yardstick we have been in the dark ages for a very long time. At least 300 years and right now its going to start getting obvious to more and more people as the new world order movement slams the coffin shut on mankind.
If there are barbarians at the gates they have been there for 300 years and they are the guards and your leaders ,I mean slave masters. If you want civilization you must renounce the world as you have known it and consign it to the dust bin of history.

Steven

#195 Taxpayer like everyone else on 10.28.10 at 9:37 am

193 Patz – I googled for the video but couldnt get a hi-rez version. I think the stat is 67% suburban homes w/o kids, but this includes non-boomer HHs as well just to clarify. Will finish watching later.

#196 pjwlk on 10.28.10 at 10:40 am

#42 HouseBuster said: “…I’ve always wondered about an area in Oakville called Lakeshore Woods. This is an area with many 600K+ homes but an area that used to be a barren wasteland…”

I laughed and laughed one day when a co-worker was braking to me about his new $800k house in the area you described. He first told me that the property taxes weren’t set yet but subsequently told me that they were to be just over $10k/yr.

Ten “K” I laughed… That’s almost what I pay for one year in rent – with everything included! … and no headaches… LOL.

BTW, I heard from someone that there was indeed some shady environmental things happening in that area a few decades ago. Cash is King though and I’m sure the developers have lots of it for the right people.

#197 Live within your means on 10.28.10 at 1:38 pm

.#98 BrianT on 10.27.10 at 9:03 am
Here is just one more example of effective “monetary stimulus”-the boost to car dealers and female entertainers was well worth it http://www.thestar.com/news/article/881639–hookers-and-booze-your-tax-dollars-at-work?bn=1
………………………..

I read that this morning. An now we taxpayers are on the hook for 85% of these loans, in addition to CMHC potential liability due to this govt’s 0/40 yr mtgs. Couldn’t believe the lack of oversight on the part of the banks. How many other cases are out there!!

#198 Live within your means on 10.28.10 at 1:46 pm

#97 Brass Balls on 10.27.10 at 8:51 am

We’re a lot more likely to get bailed out by the Liberals than if the Consevatives are in power. The Libs have a history of buying us with our own money…and it usually works!
…………………………………………..
And this govt. doesn’t – LOL.