The vice

In New Brunswick the premier blew up, trounced by the opposition, the first single-term leader in NB history. In Toronto, seasoned career politicians are being used as Swiffer pads by a lumpy rebel mayoral candidate with a checkered past. In BC, a zombie premier goes through the motions before disappearing into the Strait of Georgia. In Ontario a new poll shows the ruling party enjoys the support of about 20% of the voters and half the golden retrievers. And in America, the superman president is a month away from losing control of Congress, and may soon make history as a one-term wonder.

Why are incumbents and insiders being sliced and diced? Does it matter?

The answer, of course, is the economy, and you bet it matters. Voters and taxpayers are making a lie of establishment claims the recession is over. They know better. And they’re pissed.

In Canada the unemployment rate is mired above 8% and will probably stay there for a couple more years. In the country’s industrial heartland – southern Ontario – not a single new factory has opened in two years. In BC, mill towns have been left for the pine beetles to munch.

As I mentioned yesterday, most households are in abysmal shape. Debt’s out of control, savings are largely non-existent, cash flow barely meets expenses and now we have the HST inflicted on 16 million more people.

Worse, there’s no candle in the window. No tax cuts even possible for a generation or more, now that all provinces operate in the red and the federal debt approaches $600 billion. People have figured it out that more “stimulus spending” means more taxes, emergency interest rates won’t hold and so long as the US is on its knees, we can’t stand. So, where are the new ideas?

In the States, it’s worse. The middle class was shredded by real estate, eight million jobs vanished and the government spent more money than God and fixed nothing. As a consequence, it’s open season on the political class.

Now, the consequences.

My thesis is that we never did emerge from recession, and are bouncing along the bottom – a condition that will last at least a couple more years. This means the fools who believed 2009 marked a recovery and they could borrow their brains out sans repercussions are toast. I’ve told you to expect deflation for a while, including falling real estate values, at the same time as the cost of living rises. It’s a vice ready to squish the unwary.

Eventually we’ll achieve recovery once America touches bottom, leading to a big upside for financial markets. But this will come with rising interest rates, and no real recovery for house prices. Those who see this now, making the move from real to financial assets, will the Great Gatsbys of 2015.

So back to politics.

Hard times always breed simple solutions. ‘Just cut government spending. Simply hack away at the public service. Stop catering to refugees, special interest groups and prisoners. Sell government agencies, boards and commissions. Slash entitlements for politicians. Eliminate waste, duplication and overlap. Live within our means. Us first.’

Without a doubt, some of the above is needed. But all of the above brings disruption and turmoil. Every public dollar unspent is a dollar unearned by someone else. A substantive squeeze – whether that means closing libraries and schools in Toronto or cutting back on EMS personnel on the Lower Eastside of Vancouver – has consequences.

I’m out of politics now. Thrown out, actually. I embody the person the system abhors. My writing and speaking and questioning led to my disgrace and destruction, dooced by a prime minister, shunned by wary colleagues. I will never run again. I have no party.

So trust me when I say, be careful. Be liquid. Be brave.

Hear Garth here:

Wolfville NS
Tuesday October 5, 7 pm, Ken-Wo Golf Club. Register here.

Lunenburg
Wednesday October 6, 7 pm, Fisheries Museum. Register here.

Halifax
Thursday October 7, 7 pm, Ashburn Golf Club. Register here.

Victoria BC
Wednesday October 13, 7 pm, Victoria Convention Centre. Register here.

Kelowna
Thursday October 14, 7 pm. Register here.

Surrey
EVENT FULL: Friday October 15, 7 pm. SECOND EVENT: Friday October 15, 2 pm. Register here.

Toronto
EVENT FULL: Tuesday November 9, 7 pm, Double Tree Hilton, 655 Dixon Road (airport strip).

185 comments ↓

#1 McSteve on 09.28.10 at 9:17 pm

I liked yesterday’s picture better…

#2 Grandpa Grinch on 09.28.10 at 9:42 pm

Hard times always breed simple solutions. Just cut government spending. Simply hack away at the public service. Stop catering to refugees, special interest groups and prisoners. Sell government agencies, boards and commissions. Slash entitlements for politicians. Eliminate waste, duplication and overlap. Live within our means. Us first. – Garth

That is the most insightful paragraph ever written on this blog. The masses see government as beneficial and there to help them, that they’re somehow entitled to assistance.

The fact is that government is a parasite, living off the citizenry for its own survival. The larger, more wieldy and more oppressive government becomes through regulation, taxation & interference in the daily lives of Canadian citizens, the worse off our society as a whole.

It makes me sick that prisoners are entitled to better health care than law abiding citizens, that immigrants get more social assitance than veterans and that the liberal agenda has poisoned our schools.

#3 dark sad person on 09.28.10 at 9:43 pm

Hard times always breed simple solutions. Just cut government spending. Simply hack away at the public service. Stop catering to refugees, special interest groups and prisoners. Sell government agencies, boards and commissions. Slash entitlements for politicians. Eliminate waste, duplication and overlap. Live within our means. Us first.

Without a doubt, some of the above is needed. But all of the above brings disruption and turmoil. Every public dollar unspent is a dollar unearned by someone else. A substantive squeeze – whether that means closing libraries and schools in Toronto or cutting back on EMS personnel on the Lower Eastside of Vancouver – has consequences

****************

All good stuff and to hell with the upheaval it causes-cuz-upheaval is a good thing when directed at Politicians and People finally waking up-is also a good thing-
Too bad they took so long-because-“none” of what’s happened in Canada over the last 3 years-should have happened-
Ask any trader if they could have possibly had a better or more clearly detailed edge-then all the lag time Canada was given-
Yet-our Government and the BOC-blew a bubble because they thought it would coast them through-until the next Election-
Oooops–

This would be great-except-
Look at the complete array of total imbeciles-we have to choose from-to replace these ones–

This is ugly-
The whole Political structure in Canada is nothing but a maggot infested-pile of guts–

G–form a Political Cadre-
I’ll be your personnel manager-for free–

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1809vqz3zA&feature=related

#4 Peter Pan on 09.28.10 at 9:47 pm

Garth says “Every public dollar unspent is a dollar unearned by someone else.”
———————————–
Peter Pan says “Every public dollar unspent is an extra dollar saved in an overtaxed Canadian’s pocket.”

I’ve lived in Ottawa and surely you must concur about this observation… Most federal civil servants do very little for the amount of money they are paid… It’s nice to romanticize civil servants all being nurses, ambulance attendants or dam inspectors, but let’s face facts… many are just shuffling pieces of paper day after pensionable day…

#5 squidly77 on 09.28.10 at 9:50 pm

It’s about to very nasty, very nasty indeed.
Never think that Government is your friend.

#6 Keith in Calgary on 09.28.10 at 9:51 pm

All politicians will have a big problem regardless of who gets elected…….the equity markets will never recover for decades………and this will dramatically will affect pensions and RRSP’s amongst other things.

The public does not trust Wall or Bay Street anymore and feels that stocks are a ponzi scheme…….and they are……

So we’re a generation away from any recovery there, for two reasons, one of which I just stated and the other one ? Well, when rates continue to increase, and they will have to in order to support our debt load, people will abhor any kind of risk bearing return and continue to sock their money away in the banks or high yielding government bonds that will get held to maturity.

Ergo, more downward pressure on the market that today is only held together by Obama’s printing presses and the hordes of banksters and their professional traders orchestrating jitneys to keep themselves busy.

#7 Soylent Green is People on 09.28.10 at 9:51 pm

snip snip: Right-wing politicians have a default option for balancing budgets without increasing taxes. From Margaret Thatcher to Gordon Campbell, the recipe for fiscal success is simple: sell off public assets while reducing and privatizing public services.

Just don’t ask how many of those politicians apply the same logic to their personal finances.

In the short term, the quickest way to pay off your debts is to sell the house and work longer hours. Yet the long-term consequences — in terms of shelter, financial security and a legacy for your children — can be severe.

Wise individuals plan for the future, taking on debt to acquire and develop property, improving themselves through training and education and maintaining their health through exercise and vacations.

Tragic consequences
Michael Byers, Vancouver Sun, September 8, 2007
http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine/reviews/tragic-consequences

http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine/the-book

The Meaning of “Austerity”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUmQbf1AyA8

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Councillor Joe Pantalone, who is running for Mayor of Toronto, Oct. 25th, 2010:

“Those candidates who say we should sell the patrimony bestowed upon us by Torontonians present and past really don’t get it.

You don’t sell your house so you can rent it from whoever bought it from you.”

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/791297–toronto-s-debt-not-sky-high-moody-s-says

#8 Soylent Green is People on 09.28.10 at 9:52 pm

starve the beast

“Starving the beast” is a fiscal-political strategy of some American conservatives to use budget deficits via tax cuts to force future reductions in the size of government. The term “beast” refers to government and the programs it funds, particularly social programs such as welfare, Social Security, and Medicare.

A well-known proponent of the strategy is activist Grover Norquist who famously said “My goal is to cut government in half in twenty-five years, to get it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub.”

Some empirical evidence shows that such a strategy may be counterproductive, with lower taxes corresponding to higher spending.

An October 2007 study by Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer of the National Bureau of Economic Research found: “[…] no support for the hypothesis that tax cuts restrain government spending; indeed, [the findings] suggest that tax cuts may actually increase spending. The results also indicate that the main effect of tax cuts on the government budget is to induce subsequent legislated tax increases.”[10]

http://www.dominionpaper.ca/weblogs/geordie/2339

#9 Calgary Rip Off on 09.28.10 at 9:52 pm

Back to the normal pictures. There are enough beautiful women in this world. I dont need to see them on the housing blog. Life is frustrating enough. And its better to focus on the issues at hand, rather than the many guys who married a beautiful woman and realized that the tradeoff is their sanity rather than marrying someone who they could hang out with rather than someone as a trophy. This is a housing blog.

Your last comments are interesting. Be liquid. A better phrase would be cautious about committing your resources unless you have recourse or a way out. A person could be “liquid” as you put it, and rent forever. This would be just as bad as buying a place to live you cant afford long term.

Whats better is looking at the market and employment from a personal point of view, take into account long term plans and job security and then decide what to buy. This isnt easy, requires lots of visits to new and used houses, determination of what is liked and what is needed.

Then, once the decisions are made, a house is bought, not as only an asset, but a place to live in-long term.

And when it comes to retiring, when and if that privilege exists(say 2050 for me if Im lucky) stay in the place you bought, dont do that downsizing nonsense.

By the way, Nenshi in Calgary is a good choice for mayor. I hope this guy wins. He’s educated, communicates, and is contrarian.

By the way, life is better when the left hand controls the computer mouse rather than the regular and BORING right handed computer mouse herds.

#10 squidly77 on 09.28.10 at 9:53 pm

It’s about to turn very nasty, very nasty indeed.
Never think that Government is your friend.

#11 [email protected] on 09.28.10 at 9:55 pm

Can we request her to be a guest speaker @Toronto? – House Lust and how I beat it.

#12 Mark on 09.28.10 at 9:56 pm

So how much of an upside are we looking at, when the CMHC ends up monetizing the entire Canadian mortgage market, in the Canadian banks?

TSX to 30,000? Housing prices back to 1995 levels?

#13 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.28.10 at 9:57 pm

“Hard times always breed simple solutions. Just cut government spending. Simply hack away at the public service. Stop catering to refugees, special interest groups and prisoners. Sell government agencies, boards and commissions.

Hmmm – maybe we can sell CMHC?

The Fannie/Freddie disaster in the U.S. is going to happen here anyway, so why not get some IPO money out of it before the hundreds of billions of guarantees on their books start to turn?

If the Teacher’s Pension Plan wanted to buy AIG’s mortgage insurance division, there obviously is a market for this… also, the mortgage-backed securities (Canada Mortgage Bonds) continue to set new records for bond sales in Canada.

Now, if only you could sell CMHC *and* somehow get rid of the Government backing (i.e. get rid of the taxpayer risk), that would be incredible.

#14 SpaceMonkey on 09.28.10 at 9:59 pm

oh come on McSteve! Those guys are pretty hot… and much funnier :)

Garth, What sort of financial assets do you suggest in times of deflation?

#15 cashman on 09.28.10 at 10:00 pm

#1 McSteve So did I. Much better looking too.

#16 bsallergy on 09.28.10 at 10:02 pm

Ah Garth, the simple solutions already abound and we’ll be hearing more and more of them every day. Keep it up.

#17 CREA Cirlce Jerk on 09.28.10 at 10:04 pm

Garth said:
“Eventually we’ll achieve recovery once America touches bottom, leading to a big upside for financial markets.”

Eventually that might happen, but not anytime soon. The morass of US debt (and Japan, UK, PIIGS etc) is so large that only an eventual devaluation of the USD or some sort of global reset can fix this. And when Japan’s bond bubble starts bursting and the USD gets devalued, all hell is going to broke loose (economically speaking).

The stock market may go up in nominal terms (housing too) but it will lag badly in inflation-adjusted terms. I’m no gold bug – in fact i don’t own any or any gold mining shares – but even I can see we’re only in the third or fourth inning of gold and silver’s rally. I keep trying to convince the wife to move 50% of our assets there but she won’t bite. Sigh.

#18 Jack the Lad on 09.28.10 at 10:05 pm

“A lumpy mayoral candidate with a checkered past”…

Sure the guy is WASP trash, but I’d take him over the other guy – “Don Corleone” – any day!

#19 LongviewLonghorn on 09.28.10 at 10:06 pm

To more appropriately reflect the high rate of unemployment (and accompanying despair) this country is currently suffering, may I suggest the following minor changes to today’s illustration:
A: Change the old men to busty young women
B: Have them wear fishnet stockings
C: Have them standing on a dimly lit street corner
D: Change the signs to “$2 a head, 3 for $5”

#20 AnotherLowlyRenter on 09.28.10 at 10:10 pm

I would leave my couch and actually vote for a politician who had the intellectual honesty to restrain our CMHC. Risky loans are risky for a reason.

#21 vreaa on 09.28.10 at 10:21 pm

‘Under’ Construction
– The Mouldy Shoe-Box Knockdowns of 2050-2060

With photos, and anecdotes.

http://wp.me/pcq1o-1o1

#22 Medic on 09.28.10 at 10:37 pm

Thrown out..
disgrace and destruction…
shunned by colleagues..

You must be doing something right, Garth.

#23 Mark on 09.28.10 at 10:38 pm

#6, the public may not trust the stock markets, but it certainly does trust the bond markets, by the amount of money that gets shovelled into GICs, savings accounts, and government bonds each year by Canadians.

Over time, this leads to higher equity returns. A low stock market is actually a good thing for a long-term equity investor because it allows for dividend re-investment to take place at low multiples, and makes it difficult for competitors to raise equity financing to compete with established businesses.

In the long run, a low stock market is ultimately the cure to low equity returns.

#24 905er & Spouse on 09.28.10 at 10:45 pm

Ya some governments are unpopular. But for some strange reason the Harperites in the federal government seem to be a popular as ever.

#25 905er & Spouse on 09.28.10 at 10:49 pm

I know what you mean about not having a party. I really miss the PC party.
I want a fiscially conservative party that cares about people in need. That party died when the PCs merged with the Alliance.
:(

#26 DaBull on 09.28.10 at 10:49 pm

For all you gold bugs.

http://www.onemint.com/2010/09/20/how-did-gold-progress-through-the-ages/

#27 Jody on 09.28.10 at 10:54 pm

“Every public dollar unspent is a dollar unearned by someone else. ”

Every public dollar is in reality a private dollar, each and every dollar was stolen from private industry to fund what some asshat thinks is a program that will “save,” society. So many asshats have lobbied and made so many programs which employ so many people that governments the world over are going broke, if they aren’t there already. We’ve never had a truly free market in anything, the fat finger of government has always been there to screw things up. Could you imagine how much cottage industry would spring up if governments at all levels did not require businesses to get a liscence, to get a variance on their homes to operate a business from them etc. etc. ? Another example, “green” technology, imagine if you will what would happen to the solar panel industry in Canada if all levels of government said companies that make solar panels don’t have to pay any taxes of any kind for the next 5 years, and anyone who works for them doesn’t have to pay taxes either, BOOM! Instant growth industry, talk about a take off.

But all government does is reward it’s friends and punish it’s enemies, they give out no bid contracts to their friends corporations. Politics is a hamster wheel to distract you from the fact that everyday government intrudes further into your life and grows like the cancerous pile of shit it truly is. It doesn’t matter if they are the Lieberals, CONservatives, NDP, Bloc tossers or the retards from the Green Party, their all the same, the only difference is which toilet they flush to cover you in shit. I’ll pay for courts, roads and maybe cops (so long as they are overseen by civilians and face harsher penalties for abusing the power vested in them), the rest, privatize it, and that means no rules, no regulations, companies like Bell, Rogers, Telus, Ford, Burger King etc. would have to actually serve the customer instead of stealing money from the tax payer. I think they would get killed by the fresh new competition.

Look at what you need to survive, your needs are food, clothing and shelter, last time I checked the private sector took care of those things and I’ve never seen a hungry nekkid person running round Cowtown. The market provides for our needs so why the hell can’t we take our heads out of our asses and let the market provide for our wants, you know, healthcare, education, garbage collection etc.? Of course with the government backed CHMC we are well and truly screwed, even with a civic election out here in Cowtown I still see more for sale and for rent signs than campaign signs, ouch!

#28 Blase on 09.28.10 at 10:58 pm

I predict that in 5 years, America will have righted it’s ship, while China will be in chaos.

Why? Transparency. America’s worts are all there for the world to see. China is Russia, circa 1960s.

Wait for the Chinese meltdown to come…and buy assets accordingly.

#29 nonplused on 09.28.10 at 11:00 pm

Only I unexpectedly brought the picture from yesterday up on my screen at work in the middle of a cube farm full of women and now I have a meeting with HR tomorrow at 2:00 pm in a conference room on a different floor. That’s how it always ends….

I’ll try and argue hard that it was a financial blog and not inappropriate for the work environment but we’ll see.

That said the picture rocked! Much better than today. Since I’ll be “working from home” now until I get another job I hope they are like that every day from now on.

Maybe I shouldn’t have left it up so long. It was a nice photo. Funny too, after a while.

Excuse my lack of enlightenment, but wasn’t “The Great Gatsby” a bootlegger? Does the reference imply that people who shift to financial assets will have to resort to a life of crime? Or perhaps it means they will make so much money it will seem like a crime?

It may be the case, because right now small traders are definitely exiting the market. Zerohedge.com is arguing that the trade volume is so low that significant layoffs are expected in the financial community, and that (as we already knew) most trade volume today is being done by the black boxes of a few big brokers and banks.

I agree with Zerohedge.com that the stock market is completely irrelevant today. The bulk of the trades are being done by a computer program either running some sort of statistically based regression analysis or by front running “flash trading” routines. Never before has the price been so “anchored”, but today it’s not anchored in a person’s mind like real estate but instead a bunch of computer databases and algorithms. Meanwhile people are pulling out. Zerohedge.com argues that why wouldn’t you after the “flash crash” back in May (was it that long ago already?), which we still don’t have a good explanation for. Nobody knows what happened. Well, I bet somebody does, but they aren’t saying. Was it cascading stop orders? A “flash trading algorithm” run amuck? An organized hit? It wasn’t the general population because it was too fast.

Back to houses, I think that either people are taking their sweet time to relist in Calgary or we have the beginnings of a seller’s strike. One community in particular in Calgary that had over 20 houses for sale last month that were there for a while now has 2. So unless the August sales numbers come in like a new high in gold, we have a seller’s strike. I don’t think it’ll work. That would be like a car dealer having 100’s of cars sitting on his lot and saying only 20 of them are for sale at this time. Buyers are dumb, but not that dumb. Plus they won’t be able to stay united like OPEC. Somebody will get nervous and try and “front run” the crowd eventually.

(“Front running”, in trader parlance, is the act of selling (or buying) a large volume when you suspect there is someone out there trying to get off a large volume. So for example if you think producer XYZ is about to sell a large volume, you hit every bid selling short (or just dumping your own position). Prices then fall on the combined sales, XYZ has to settle for lower prices, and if you were short you close out at a tidy profit. At least in theory. And yes it happens all the time.)

#30 prairie gal on 09.28.10 at 11:01 pm

Grandpa Grinch wrote: “It makes me sick that prisoners are entitled to better health care than law abiding citizens, that immigrants get more social assitance than veterans and that the liberal agenda has poisoned our schools.”
_____________
none of that is true.

#31 Basil Fawlty on 09.28.10 at 11:02 pm

“My writing and speaking and questioning led to my disgrace and destruction, dooced by a prime minister, shunned by wary colleagues.”
It was and is their disgrace Garth. You get to live with the courage of your convictions, they have none.

#32 sk76driver on 09.28.10 at 11:17 pm

#11 [email protected] on 09.28.10 at 9:55 pm

Can we request her to be a guest speaker @Toronto? – House Lust and how I beat it.

And the downward slide continues…Don’t worry…I am censoring myself….. and ROTFLMAO!!!!!

#33 john m on 09.28.10 at 11:19 pm

Great post Garth and so very true…….it makes me angry the way our tax dollars are being used by our popularity seeking,vote buying politicians.Billions of our tax dollars are leaving our shores and not a nickel of it will return to the people who that money belongs to. The 2 day G20 summit cost every man,woman and child in Canada over $30.00 each and they used borrowed money to put on that show….disgusting!As you once stated Garth and i agree–all MP’s should be independents with a leader elected from a list of candidates this would end a hell of a lot of vote buying,partisanship and corruption…things can not continue with any chance of accountability in our present system. IMO

#34 Tom on 09.28.10 at 11:23 pm

You may not have a party, but here in BC, we don’t have a Premier. We have a shameless former paver-developer who has lied about the HST, and after a massive groundswell of opposition to it, we now have to spend 30 million to vote to tell him we don’t want it.

#35 Makaya on 09.28.10 at 11:31 pm

“Just cut government spending. Simply hack away at the public service.”

If it was that easy, wouldn’t it have been done already?
It’s easy to say, but once you have to make the decision on where to make the cuts, you know how difficult it can be. This is why it’s easier to be a blogger than a politician…

“Stop catering to refugees”

How much are you gonna save with that? $10 million max? that will surely not solve the $600b debt…

“special interest groups”
I totally agree on this one. Governments often forget that they are suppose to work for the common good.

“and prisoners”
You’ll make them die of hunger in prison?

“Sell government agencies ”
which ones? Some of them are pretty useful and are doing a great job at what they are doing…

“boards and commissions”
Agree with that one, although it wouldn’t be easy to get rid of Boards.

“Slash entitlements for politicians.”
Great populism. How much are you going to save with that? Will that solve the problem? Maybe the most competent of the politicians (there are some, for sure) would find that it’s not worth it and would go to the private sector. Who would be left to manage this country?

“Eliminate waste, duplication and overlap.”
There is for sure a lot to be done in that area.

“Live within our means. ”
Totally agree. How about putting in the constitution that every budget must be balanced? Add to that: 2010 tax rate is a maximum. No more tax raise, no more new taxes.

“Us first.”
We’ve heard that kind of speech before in Europe. That led to nothing but disaster…
I’m quite disappointed to see you writing that kind of things…

#36 bruce corell on 09.28.10 at 11:32 pm

Only one solution in Ontario.

Freedom Party of Ontario

1. Scrap Ontario’s Income Tax
2. Legalize Faster, Better Healthcare (choose one: public insurance, private insurance, pay-as-you-go)
3. Improve Education (pay only for the school your child attends)
4. Improve the Supply of Electricity
5. Restore Fair Auto Insurance (end “no fault”, restore the “full tort” system)
6. Scrap Property Taxes (fund municipalities with consumption/sales tax instead)

http://www.freedomparty.on.ca/

#37 Sam on 09.28.10 at 11:36 pm

Maybe in Canada they do, but on the US boards I regularly read

“where are the Bond Vigilantes?”

and related sentiment. Bill Gross of Pimco and various other entities are now being vilified for setting themselves up to win big in case of US government / US FED handouts of taxpayer money to bond holders.
_________________
#23 Mark on 09.28.10 at 10:38 pm

#6, the public may not trust the stock markets, but it certainly does trust the bond markets, by the amount of money that gets shovelled into GICs, savings accounts, and government bonds each year by Canadians.

#38 JM in London on 09.28.10 at 11:36 pm

If only we could shrink government with any kind of meaningful movement. It seems it used to be that the covenant with being a civil servant was less pay for a decent pension…I know, I know – I’m very likely replacing memory for dreams I’ve had many many times in order that my fevered brain be able to classify everything and not let it break me down… I’m one who says that if a civil service union really wants to negotiate a pay raise, it should be put to the voters in referendum form come election day…I really must stop dreaming…

OK – rant over – dream crushed by the weight of government now sitting on my chest asking for more taxes to fund another billion or so for the next boondoggle… Man – I need a shower!!

#39 Timing is Everything on 09.28.10 at 11:40 pm

Garth said – “So trust me when I say, be careful. Be liquid. Be brave.”

Very few people I trust….And I live with almost all of them in our home. However, your message is valid.

#40 john m on 09.28.10 at 11:41 pm

“I’m out of politics now. Thrown out, actually. I embody the person the system abhors. My writing and speaking and questioning led to my disgrace and destruction, dooced by a prime minister, shunned by wary colleagues. I will never run again. I have no party.”……….You were the best Garth…you brought honesty,accountability and a genuine desire to make our country a better place.You caught my interest and gave me renewed hope for our political system and you are the only politician in my lifetime i ever donated to (even tho i was not in your riding). Since you have left the political arena i have very little respect for many of them and absolutely none for the majority of the rest. You were right! and stood above the crowd!Things could have been different if they had listened.

#41 TaxHaven on 09.28.10 at 11:44 pm

“Every public dollar unspent is a dollar unearned by someone else.”

Curious. Perhaps it should be re-phrased as

“Every dollar frittered away and wasted by government is a dollar uninvested by the original earner.”

Or do you trust governments to allocate (other people’s!) capital more effectively than the private sector?

#42 Patz on 09.29.10 at 12:03 am

#2 Gramps: Er.. perhaps you didn’t notice but when Garth wrote, “Hard times always breed simple solutions. Just cut government spending. etc… Us first, ” he wasn’t wholeheartedly endorsing the solution(s).

It is the people who’ve been slamming government and so–called entitlements who’ve largely been responsible for the ever widening divide between the rich and the poor. (Read today’s Huffington Post for a survey of the latest US census data which shows how bad this has gotten.) Unless you are in the cohort of the seriously rich you’ve been conned into supporting those who would suck you dry. Sic semper (only it’s getting worse).
http://tiny.cc/zg6en

#43 Timing is Everything on 09.29.10 at 12:05 am

Garth said – “But all of the above brings disruption and turmoil.”

Amused to Death….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpJGfzcz0rw&feature=related

#44 Sherri on 09.29.10 at 12:05 am

Those holding copious amounts of Gold bullion not financial assets(paper) will be the Great Gold Gatsbys of 2015.

#45 Dave in Victoria on 09.29.10 at 12:06 am

Very sad times when libraries come under attack.

This is what happens when economy and profit trump the greater good, and are considered as a means to the common weal unto themselves.

Our values and principles are coming into question; the economy is merely a lesion signaling disease.

#46 vomitingdog on 09.29.10 at 12:18 am

“The answer, of course, is the economy, and you bet it matters. Voters and taxpayers are making a lie of establishment claims the recession is over. They know better. And they’re pissed.”

Great. A pissed populace. What else is new? They’re ready to burn down Paris because retirement age has moved up by two whole years. Can we just encourage the politicians to do what they need to do and stop encouraging them to kick the can down the road?

HST will be recalled in this province by a burned out X-premier and then they’ll just tax us another way with the added expense of a referendum. Great idea.

#47 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 12:22 am

I’m out of politics now. Thrown out, actually. I embody the person the system abhors. My writing and speaking and questioning led to my disgrace and destruction, dooced by a prime minister, shunned by wary colleagues. I will never run again. I have no party.

******************************************

I wouldn’t loose any sleep over it Garth.( above caption)

Very informative blog today Garth. Alot of people I talk to feel the same way about what you said.

You did alright yesterday, with all the ribbing as well.
__________________________________________

Re # 2 Grandpa Grinch

DITTO.

Maybe the sleeping masses are starting to wake slowly. And not liking what they are seeing.

#48 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.29.10 at 12:25 am


Q: “Why are incumbents and insiders being sliced and diced?”

A: The Excrometer (HoC) is now in full session, so expect plenty of extra strength bovine manure to be eaten with yer Cheez Whiz!

“No tax cuts even possible for a generation or more, now that all provinces operate in the red and the federal debt approaches $600 billion.”

Just as dubya’s tax cuts / breaks expire at the end of this year, so Obama plans on bringing in a new 20% VAT at the start of next year, ‘tho we know it’s not really Obama, just the elite who put him there and are running the show.

But he will pay the price. He has done his work in a very short period of time.
*
#1 McSteve — Ditto!

#5 squidly77 — Agreed, and it may tie in with the link in my #222 (previous post) about the collapse happening quickly after the mid-terms.

Then Harper declares martial law here, Obama there so we’re all dead meat sleeping.

Too many crooks spoil the broth.

Hmmm. Diff’rent tax laws for now, but what happens if the NAU / SPP starts taking shape?

Hyperinflation 101 explained (Inflation – economics; hyperinflation – political).

GD2 If there are criminal charges laid, then this whole shishkebob was clearly planned from the start, incl. Clinton’s looting of the SS system, the dot.com bubble, 9-11, etc., etc.

Four min. clip The Easter Bunny vs. Santa Claus, with GS as the ref. Brutal, terrifying! Plus — True Deficit Audio runs five mins. Kinda goes with the preceding.

#49 oilsand eddy on 09.29.10 at 1:16 am

Can inflationary measures be used to clear federal and provincial debt? Is nationalization of the oil industry like Norway and Russia feasible? These are the radical questions we need to be asking.

#50 Numbers. on 09.29.10 at 2:13 am

One cannot appreciate the good times with the bad times.

We cannot learn unless we make mistakes.

#51 Brian1 on 09.29.10 at 2:34 am

Flagherty says no more stimulus. I don’t believe it. How will Rob Ford fund his subway? Will all those condo construction workers be laid off for ever?

#52 Brian1 on 09.29.10 at 2:40 am

I think, Mr. Flagherty that we are in for a reverse multiplier effect.

#53 grumpy on 09.29.10 at 2:47 am

This should be framed…Garth, you’ve had one of those ‘moments’ .

“Hard times always breed simple solutions. Just cut government spending. Simply hack away at the public service. Stop catering to refugees, special interest groups and prisoners. Sell government agencies, boards and commissions. Slash entitlements for politicians. Eliminate waste, duplication and overlap. Live within our means. Us first”

Can you translate this into a language the press will print?

BTW last weeks announcement that ‘the recession is over’ was a huge laugh…it reminded me of George Bush announcing ‘Mission Accomplished’ and overseeing the end of the Iraqi war seven years before it ended. Now Obama has done the same thing…left 50,000 combat troops to ‘educate’ the Iraqi police while the war, for all intents and purposes rages on.

The recession is still very alive and only the obtuse statsticians who have smoothed out the failings of the economy can say that its over. The economy has gotten worse, it was temporarily bouyed by trillions of phony dollars which have been misappropriated by large corporate intrests…people have been misled by desperate plot- icians.

BTW…would you define financial assets?

#54 Brian1 on 09.29.10 at 2:52 am

I would like to ask you Garth how high do you think the Canadian unemployment rise? I think this is the key to everything.

#55 Aussie Roy on 09.29.10 at 3:13 am

It doesnt take a brain surgeon to work out its all about debt, most average citizens in the western world are up to their eyeballs in debt. Governments now to thanks to stimulus are carrying more debt. Higher interest rates and taxes are just about assured. With rising costs for essential items many of the indulgences of the past, like expensive housing will suffer greatly as the squeeze continues.

Aussie Update

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bad-news-looms-for-debtladen-households-20100928-15vwq.html

http://www.smh.com.au/business/new-home-sales-drop-for-fourth-month-20100929-15wji.html#poll

#56 Tony on 09.29.10 at 4:26 am

Canada looks poised to technically head back into recession. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth with the HST brought in at the worst possible time.

#57 Squidly77 on 09.29.10 at 4:54 am

It’s about to turn very nasty, very nasty indeed.
Never think that Government is your friend.

Squidly77

#58 CalamityJoe on 09.29.10 at 5:28 am

CalamityJoe

There’s an obvious reason why the nuts are being served in overdrive on this blog. Nothing reported by Garth, and then analyzed haphazardly, makes an ounce of consistent sense.

Would someone please explain since Garth can’t or won’t?

How is it that the economy will drag along bottom for several years, but lo, interest rates will rise nonetheless (I recall Garth talking about 7% coming along shortly), and Canadian housing will crash, but now in slow motion maybe 0.0005% per year, and everyone will wish they bought financials because in 5 years or so (gosh, imagine the number of posts between now and then….) an economic renaissance will occur with our housing in the doldrums, US consumption at a new lower normal, and foreign suppliers without a single major credit-driven mass of brainwashed consumers to sell to?

Hmmm.. could it be that housing will probably slow its appreciation levels back to the good old 2001-2003 days (during another nasty US downturn), bolstered by historically low rates held there for the benefit of recapitalizing banks, prop traders, mortgage portfolios, CHMC, a swath of real estate/builders/brokers/lawyers that all still pay taxes–unlike the Garthites residing here?

Don’t think so? Think England. Fallen empires don’t fall knowingly or quickly or spectacularly or to the net benefit of their professional class. It’s a slow process of draining the blood out. No, if you weren’t rich before the fall, you’ll never make it in the decades that follow. People in Europe generally can’t afford city housing no matter how many asset bubbles, great men, or “renaissance” periods take place.

In other words, vultures, you’ve already sealed your fate: there will be no housing crash, there will be no opportunity to make it up in the market and there will be no renaissance. You are priced out forever. It’s not coming. It came. It went. You’re without. Start warning your kids.

The developing world will figure out how exactly to sell stuff to itself rather than unstable Anglo-empires, and that our markets will begin (with many fits) the long process of realizing the effect of capital flight. Only commodities traders benefit in this, and not buy-and-hold OIL indexers as Garth suggests. You all will get trounced following commodities up and back down again, over and over. Good luck. It’s hard to face it, but it’s the truth–the sooner you face it, the sooner you’ll finally take that language course.

This is not bad for everyone mind you. Those with real estate are well positioned. Those with bonds, or worse, preferred shares and equity that will follow the risk-on, risk-off wind for a decade or so will be regretting the day you decided to believe that things would swing your way. Not so. The 80’s gig is up. And there’s no war coming to reinvigorate the empire by crushing the competition.

Get ready for a real punk music revival.

#59 GTA Realtor on 09.29.10 at 5:41 am

Here’s my bet for the “trigger” to the next chapter of this world-wide mess…
September 28, 2010 – Financial Times:
“The premiums investors demand to hold Irish or Portuguese bonds instead of German have now passed the levels that precipitated the Greek bail-out.”

Oh, this will get ugly before long…gov’ts can only afford so many bail-outs…and Ireland appears to be at the end of it’s rope…

#60 LHHW on 09.29.10 at 5:45 am

We’ll all be seing more and more power of sales coming from CMHC.

Stable neighbourhoods in Toronto for example such as a couple in Etobicoke (Kingsway, Humber Valley), Lawrence Park, Forest Hill, Rosedale…should hold up during the storm. The folks in those neighbourhoods are not negatively effected by interest rate movemenets. It will be interesting to watch though.

#61 goldenfox on 09.29.10 at 6:19 am

Markos Take

An Open Letter To Charlie Munger
Dear Mr. Munger:

I read, with interest, your recent interview as it was recapped in Yahoo Finance. I must say that I found it less provocative than that of your partner, Warren Buffett. To refresh yourself, click here: http://markostake.blogspot.com/2010/09/open-letter-to-warren-buffett.html. Nonetheless, I found this statement by you particularly troubling.

“I don’t have the slightest interest in gold. I like understanding what works and what doesn’t in human systems. To me that’s not optional; that’s a moral obligation. If you’re capable of understanding the world, you have a moral obligation to become rational. And I don’t see how you become rational hoarding gold. Even if it works, you’re a jerk.”

I guess that makes me and my fellow gold-philes jerks. Mr. Munger, doesn’t that also make your partner a jerk, too? According to Silver Monthly: “Beginning in 1997, the Oracle of Omaha (Warren Buffett) saw the value of silver glinting in the dust of depressed prices. From 1997 until 2006, his investment fund-Berkshire Hathaway-accumulated over 37% of the world’s known silver supply-even more than the COMEX! During that time, he was not only an oracle but also the all-time silver bull”. Say WHAT? I guess hoarding Gold is bad, while hoarding Silver is good? Please ‘splain it to me.

Charlie, my lips are sealed. The last thing I want to see are two octogenerians in a cage match. Leave that to Vince McMahon, would ya?

Mr. Munger, you are a very educated man. Let’s take out our notebooks as we review the history of Gold for a second. Gold is the only form of currency that has EVER endured. Surely, you would invest in currencies, wouldn’t you? Oh, but then there’s the old argument that you can’t eat Gold. True enough. I’ll bet those stock and bond certificates are particularly tasty. So is real estate. Hell, so is a Hundred Dollar bill with butter and garlic. And a barrel of crude…YUM!

You can eat bread and meat, but the problem is they don’t keep very long. They go rotten, dude. Gold has a pretty decent shelf life of a few billion years, give or take an eon. Oh, and have you heard? There is a whole planet of jerks who will ACCEPT Gold as a form of paying for things that we DO eat.

I’m sure you were delighted by the ridiculous decisions to de-emphasize Gold. When the Gold window was closed at Bretton Woods in 1971 and we went totally to paper, boy did our financial system take off! Remember how fun and prosperous the 1970’s were?

Now, I’m also confused by this quote from the Charlie Munger book of quotes: “Recognize reality even when you don’t like it – especially when you don’t like it.”

Would I be correct that this particular statement was advice given to others, rather than a credo you live by?

Do I detect a wee bit of hypocrisy, here?

Charlie, the letter contained in the Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, BRKB) annual report is legendary and read by millions of sycophantic investors everywhere. May I suggest that you at least include “Marko’s Take”? After all, shouldn’t you recognize reality, even when you don’t like it?

Mr. Munger, TAKE ME ON!

Marko’s Take

#62 David B on 09.29.10 at 6:22 am

And I for one hope you stay out Garth ….. should you return you can bet big time the knives would come out and in politics they are long and sharp! Even Pierre Trudeau flet them.

On to business 2015 was my prediction (aquired from some early readings in 2008) now as for Canada the really “BIG SHEW” is still yet to come on. Check the daily news and we see blame hitting the USA and big time protests in Europe. Here in Canada the RNC-North dropping their big blue chips on Defense and Prisons at the expence of middle class and Vets.

Speaking of our proud vets …. an interesting read and please stop and think if Ottawa would do this to thses pround Vets just think what they would do the guys and gals on the street.

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/privacy-commissioner-finds-evidence-of-systemic-abuse-at-veterans-affairs/article1731233/?service=mobile

Bottom line no working class person is safe from the man who took a $18B surplus and turned it into a $50B deficit.

#63 Alberta is well on 09.29.10 at 6:29 am

“Hard times always breed simple solutions. Just cut government spending. Simply hack away at the public service. Stop catering to refugees, special interest groups and prisoners. Sell government agencies, boards and commissions. Slash entitlements for politicians. Eliminate waste, duplication and overlap. Live within our means. Us first”.

Ralph Klein did that in 1994. He got criticized for that. Badly. But it worked. Probably the same folks who read your blog are the ones who bashed king Ralph back then.
You bring nothing new to the table, Garth.

#64 bigrider on 09.29.10 at 6:33 am

The next ten years for the financial markets are going to be much different then the last ten, that’s for sure. Anyone who believes that financial markets will continue to suffer for the next decade, as the past one ,has a bad case of rear view mirror syndrome.

Hopefully some of you people owned some mutual funds and hedge funds that successfully navigated and stock picked their way to big gains over past ten years. ETF’s would have just ground you down as indexes fell. Ya sure you can trade them but statistics show most people just trade their investments to losses.

Hopefully some of you will avoid the obsession with fees and invest in some competent money managers who consistently demonstrate the ability to grow wealth. No that is not a few only planner necessarily.

A few tough years ahead for sure but hopefully after that some of you will be well positioned for a renaissance in equities that will shock the majority of the doom and gloomers on this site.

Oh yes and no real estate wealth to be garnered over next ten years.(Remember rear view mirror)

#65 Love this blog on 09.29.10 at 7:22 am

At lunch a few of my colleageues and I were discussing real estate. I sat and listened, not saying much. A guy whose son lives in Alberta was asked about his son’s move for work, and how he would do on his house. The reply was “he’ll be lucky to break even. RE in Alberta is tanking” I looked at my co-worker, with whom I talk about this issue frequently and simply said “heard this story before?”

Yesterday, at morning coffee, I was with a different group. The talk turned to RE. They still believe it is the holy grail, so I don’t bring up my thoughts. I listen and learn instead. One guy said “Has anyone heard what’s going on with housing lately? My parents said it is dropping hard in Moose Jaw ” (his home town) and then followed that his in-laws in Yorkton had said the same thing. Said people were having to slash asking prices like crazy to be able to sell.
Another guy then said “Yeah, what’s up with that. Like they say on the news, Saskatchewan is doing so well”

I smiled inwardly, and said nothing…………..but it is very telling. We have the best economy in Canada, I would think, yet the cracks are showing.

Locally, I’ve started seeing price reductions. Many homes here are on the market for a year or more. The message is slowly sinking in, that the days of easy money are gone, and that if you want to sell, drop your price. People are dragging their feet for sure, hence the 1-2 years to sell a home. But if you NEED to sell?? You NEED to be realistic………and that is finally starting to show.

#66 fancy_pants on 09.29.10 at 7:32 am

cut govt spending… sure, lets start with the dumb a$$ governing the big O province – um. kids that go to JK have a better chance of not dropping out of school. So let’s make JK full time and spend 1.5 billion to get that program going. Get your head out of the toilet. What a waste of taxpayer dollars. just another idiot spending money that isn’t there.

#67 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.29.10 at 7:47 am

2 days left in September… the monthly stats should be interesting.

Most areas of Vancouver have seen a BRUTAL month, but somehow West Vancouver saw a big spike in average price:

http://www.yattermatters.com/2010/09/community-snapshot-series-west-vancouver/#more-21347

Obviously, trying to base any conclusions on 39 total data points (39 detached sales over the past month) is going to be skewed, but nevertheless – it is rather bizarre that Average Price was $2.25M (up almost 10% from July) and Median Price $1.65M in an area where the months of inventory and days are market are so high (almost 15 months of inventory, and 84 days on market).

#68 S.B. on 09.29.10 at 8:00 am

Maybe Garth will find a place on the new “Fox North” an apparant ultra right-wing, fundamental fanatic TV news station? I hope not, but they will be looking for a new poster boy up here.

If the solution is to cut all health care and become beholden to HMO Corps. with their 10-20% yearly premium increases and denials of insurability, if this is considered progress then…we’ll become like the USA. Maybe this is the goal.

My wacked out nutjob theory is that ‘they’ (world dictators) aim to crush every middle class, anglo saxon, country. Witness: Iceland (a nice isolated controlled lab for such a test – it worked!), Ireland is underway now (special punishment for resisting the EU?), Greece, Portugal, France et al in the EU; USA…and is Canada next?

Hint: the world is not run by charities who wake up every morning with the goal of improving Joe 6-Packs’s life. No, it is all run for personal gain.

I’ve heard the reports on here of hydro and water bills increasing 10-15% each and every year now (I’m not a home owner), and HST is another kick.

There will be two classes: the serfs, and the Super Class (owners of the means of capital – farming, military, energy distribution, government, overseas outsourced industries).

The only hope for many in the USA is to join El Presidente’s standing army for a chance at a decent paycheque. They will not bite the hand that feeds them…just following orders at all times. Nice. Most of us as kids played with toy soliders and model airplanes, but the Super Class plays with the real item.

We cannot ignore the USA’s sudden interest in moulding and changing Pakistan into the same. Another practice ground?

#69 Rachelle on 09.29.10 at 8:09 am

Hi Garth,

I’m sorry they threw you out, I know that’s true from my own personal experience. When you start asking uncomfortable questions you’re done. Conformity is your friend.

In any case, why don’t you come over where you’re super welcome and submit your favorite article to our real estate blog carnival? Do I have to beg?

Please, please, please submit an article to the First Edition of the Canadian Real Estate Blog Carnaval. I would like to have a true representation of all ideas pertaining to real estate not just the rose colored glasses versions.

[email protected]

BTW I snagged some tickets to the Toronto event and I will be reporting back on that as well on my site.

#70 Soylent Green is People on 09.29.10 at 8:20 am

#2 Grandpa Grinch on 09.28.10 at 9:42 pm

YEAH, let’s stop catering to minorities and special interest groups ! ! ! ! !

COULD NOT AGREE WITH YOU MORE.

Most insightful post EVER ! ! ! !

~~~~~~~~

‘Visible minority’ will mean ‘white’ by 2031

By 2031, the Toronto region’s white population will be the new “visible minority,” according to a Statistics Canada study.

The city and its suburbs are expected to surpass the 50 per cent visible minority mark in 2017. By 2031, almost 63 per cent of the region’s population will be from a visible minority community, says the study released Tuesday.

☻☻☻

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/777547—visible-minority-will-mean-white-by-2031

#71 John on 09.29.10 at 8:23 am

Had a great pogey summer! Lots of travel, golf and family time. Great job offer now on the table with two more interviews this week! I like this recession.

Any government won`t be able to get its fiscal house in order until it wins a majority. Harper wants to cut I`m sure, but he can`t risk slipping in the polls.

#72 Ret on 09.29.10 at 8:32 am

Bick’s pickles announced the closing of their Dunnville Ontario operation yesterday which will mean 150 out of work. This doesn’t include any farmers, outside contractors, trucking companies etc. that support the plant.

Surprise surprise , the work is going to their US parent,
J.M. Smucker. They figure on saving $8M annually.

Closures in small Ontario towns are killing what’s left of the economy. Toronto’s economy alone can’t save Ontario. The RE bubble “pop” or slow melt will take out the TO economy huge and with it, much of what’s left in Ontario.

#73 Soylent Green is People on 09.29.10 at 8:34 am

.#41 Patz on 09.29.10 at 12:03 am

Okay, serious now, this really is the best post of my day.

Well done.

No need to cut government to the bone, we need those people out there with jobs and salaries and money to buy stuff with. Also some of them do do work.

Just get rid of HarperCon and his buddies raking in the payola that would clear one billion pretty easily.

Otherwise we will end up like Detroit.

~~~~~~~~~~

In the afternoon and evening of September 7, dozens of fires ravaged the city of Detroit, destroying or damaging nearly 100 buildings.

The city’s worst fire emergency in decades was largely caused by the collapse of hundreds of power lines.

Due to under-staffing in the Detroit Fire Department (DFD), many of these downed lines were left unattended.

A review of the events leading up to the fires reveals that they were not a mere “natural disaster,” as Detroit Mayor Dave Bing declared,

…but the predictable result of energy giant DTE’s neglect of the power grid and the city’s cutbacks to fire protection.

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2010/sep2010/fire-s17.shtml

☻☻☻

#74 Paul on 09.29.10 at 8:45 am

“Hard times always breed simple solutions. Just cut government spending. Simply hack away at the public service. Stop catering to refugees, special interest groups and prisoners. Sell government agencies, boards and commissions. Slash entitlements for politicians. Eliminate waste, duplication and overlap. Live within our means. Us first”.

Am I the only one that thinks you don’t really believe that?

You are among the few who appear to get it. Between subtlety and women’s underwear I seem to be at a loss. — Garth

#75 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 8:49 am

#27 Jody

Excellent Blog !!!!
________________________________________

Food for thought:

First all a globalized economy will not save us, but further lower our standard of living for the working classes.

The only people who will prosper from a globalized economy are Big Business who invested over there. ( having no loyalties to any country , only to their bottom line).

Also those who invested in the stocks of those companies might prosper as well. By doing so do they not realize that they are cutting there own throats as well in the long run. ( jobs lost over here…)

We are so rich in resources here, skilled labour… Why are the politicians selling us out? ( lining their pockets perhaps?)

Why not put larger tarrifs on imported products to equal the the playing field, so to speak. Logically the only way we can compete with cheap/slave labour is to have the same pay conditions over here. ( hopefully that won’t happen, because we would all be screwd)

The reality is that this will not happen since Big Business dictates to the government what it wants done.

Right now Big Business has us buy the nuts, having slowly set up their operations through out the world.
You think it’s bad now wait till they start squeezing , telling us how it is going to be: lower wages, no benefits… and if we don’t like it they will go elsewhere. ( sort of happening now, isn’t it.)

Our taxes are going up , the government is borrowing money , trying to buy our way out of this mess…

It won’t work people. Our economy has been based on credit for a long time not productivity. It’s only common sense that this would happen. You can’t run small private business like that, you would be toast.

Slowly we are loosing more and more of our country to huge Industrial Monoplolies, thank the government for doing this.

Shit, I was under the illusion of : this is our country not theirs. Silly me. NOT.

Next question. Who do we owe all this so called “Debt” to, which we will never be able to pay back anyways.

Insane isn’t it. Why not tell these Private Financial Lenders; Sorry your shit out of luck we are forfieting our debt, you have already made enough of us since we got off the Gold Standard.

If we did this along with the USA and stuck together we should be alright. After all our nieghbour to the south has a pretty big defence system.

Now let the rest of the world start doing the same.

Here’s the tricky part. If we did this the media/ spin doctors( who work for these financiers/ big business) would be in overdrive trying to create whatever turmoil they could to get us fighting amongst each other to get back on to their program again. We would have to be smart enough to see through their bullshit propoganda. Then we might have a chance.

Don’t worry about the politicians. If we all stood together and say a half a million + went down to the capital to voice our concerns saying enough is enough( peacefully of course) they would surely pay attention.
But we sort of must be on the same wave length, regardless of our own phylosophies. This I feel might have to be done not once but repititiously, every time they tried to pull another fast one on us. That way eventually our interest’s would be served not theirs or big business.

It might sound like a far fetched idea but if something is not done shortly we will, I fear, be too far gone to actually be able to do something.

Most of us have been tricked into believing to make shit loads of money, which every year is diminishing in real value. It’s really not how much you make but what your buying power is.

Just an idea. ( but I strongly believe something must be done )

#76 45north on 09.29.10 at 8:53 am

squidly77: It’s about to very nasty, very nasty indeed.

squidly without a verb

#77 PTDBD on 09.29.10 at 9:13 am

Courtesy of Ritzholtz Blog, an interactive map showing total public debt, debt per poulation, and as % of GDP of countries. Excellent presentation. So, how is Canada doing? We’re #1. We’re #1. Wowzer!

http://buttonwood.economist.com/content/gdc

#78 AxeHead on 09.29.10 at 9:17 am

Cut Government Spending….hmmm, how about we start with the gun registry….it’s a billion dollar boondoggle.

#79 r u serious on 09.29.10 at 9:17 am

Boy, hacking away at the Public Service might save some money but, do you think the public they serve is really ready for once-a-month garbage pick-up, skating rinks that are closed more often than they are open and libraries that can’t afford to buy books?

#80 BrianT on 09.29.10 at 9:21 am

#72Solylent-Detroit has followed a big government, big spending agenda for decades-at this point the city is broke and dependent on the feds.

#81 Gord In Vancouver on 09.29.10 at 9:28 am

Province rejects sole bids to run Olympic village social housing

The soap opera continues…………

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/province-rejects-sole-bids-to-run-olympic-village-social-housing/article1731475/?cmpid=rss1

#82 C on 09.29.10 at 9:40 am

Lookin forward to the September RE numbers. Everything is suppose to be honkey dory after labour day right?

Regarding business in Southern Ontario, how is it suppose to thrive when Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, New York, Pennsylvainia, and Illinois are all getting slammed??? It’s not like we’re Altberta with the oil or BC with resources? I bet 99% of people in the GTA never give this concept a second thought. I guess there are some tech companies spattered in the GTA but I’m sure there’s a few in the US States I mentioned above.

I think in 2 years people in the GTA will start asking themselves what on earth were we all thinking, and the fact we had front row seats of the first act of the housing mess in the USA?

On another note, for goodness sakes USA, do not do QE2. Just let the economy work itself through this mess. QE1 didn’t do a thing but bloat the US balance sheet, why do it again? The more you fiddle with things the longer this bad dream is going to go on and the more things are going to turn Japanese.

#83 C on 09.29.10 at 9:41 am

Sittt Alberta I know not Altberta.

#84 dark sad person on 09.29.10 at 9:48 am

Here’s a glimpse into our future-

Can you feel it coming H-F-C ?

**********************

Europe’s sovereign debt crisis

London, England (CNN) — Simmering anger over government budget cuts will spill into the streets of 14 European countries Wednesday as tens of thousands workers fight state efforts to slash public debt.

Just as consumers went crazy with credit when borrowing was cheap and jobs were plenty, governments too racked up debts. The problem was compounded by large bills to bail out banks, along with extra spending on economic incentives and benefits, amid falling government revenues.

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/BUSINESS/09/28/europe.strikes.sovereign.debt/

****************
Man Slams A Cement Mixer Into Irish Parliament Building As Austerity Protests Erupt Across Europe

The cement mixer in question slammed into Irish parliament at about 7 a.m., with the phrase ‘Anglo Toxic Bank’ painted across it.

http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-rocked-by-austerity-protests-across-the-continent-2010-9

******************

Riot police hit out Sept. 29, 2010

Riot police hit out at demonstrators during protests in Barcelona, Spain, Wednesday, Sept. 29, 2010. Spanish workers staged a general strike Wednesday to protest austerity measures imposed by a government struggling to slash its budget deficit and overcome recession.

***********************
Anti-austerity protests sweep across Europe

Anti-austerity protests erupted across Europe on Wednesday – Greek doctors and railway employees walked out while Spanish workers shut down trains and buses.

Tens of thousands of demonstrators poured into Brussels, reinforcing the impact of Spain’s first nationwide strike in eight years.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=anti-austerity-protests-sweep-across-europe-2010-09-29

#85 wetcoaster on 09.29.10 at 9:50 am

Looks like Sherry Cooper will turn out to be the Reggie Bush of economists when she has to hand back the award next year. What a joke, she is the only one to predict the financial crisis ?

They forgot to mention her big call on joining the Loonie with the US dollar back at 60 cents.

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Cooper+wins+award+forecasting/3596145/story.html

#86 Lianne on 09.29.10 at 10:07 am

“Gold is not going to $3000, $5000… well maybe $3000.”

Garth Turner – Red Flag for Vancouver

http://www.howestreet.com/index.php?pl=/goldradio/index.php

#87 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 10:09 am

Re # 82 dark sad person

Man Slams A Cement Mixer Into Irish Parliament Building As Austerity Protests Erupt Across Europe

The cement mixer in question slammed into Irish parliament at about 7 a.m., with the phrase ‘Anglo Toxic Bank’ painted across it.
*****************************************

This is only the beginning. When you start taking a persons right to exist, based on each individuals comfort level, there will be unrest.

Sort of like the last straw on the camels back.

http://www.youtube.com/user/NathanShafferMusic?feature=pyv&ad=6009065264&kw=war#p/u/0/wCJheZ3oyYo

#88 Daisy Mae on 09.29.10 at 10:10 am

I’m out of politics now. Thrown out, actually. I embody the person the system abhors. My writing and speaking and questioning led to my disgrace and destruction, dooced by a prime minister, shunned by wary colleagues. I will never run again. I have no party.

Hardly ‘disgraced’. Just not willing to toe the party line. Huge difference….and very refreshing.

#89 Lianne on 09.29.10 at 10:13 am

…. at 10:21 in the interview

http://www.howestreet.com/index.php?pl=/goldradio/index.php

#90 dark sad person on 09.29.10 at 10:20 am

#78 r u serious on 09.29.10 at 9:17 am

Boy, hacking away at the Public Service might save some money but, do you think the public they serve is really ready for once-a-month garbage pick-up, skating rinks that are closed more often than they are open and libraries that can’t afford to buy books?

************************

The public will have no choice about accepting cuts-
All of what you mention are unsustainable-in their current form-

Why do kids need a 5 million dollar enclosed skating rink?
Let the little buggers skate on the outdoor rink/lake/pond/swamp in -30c like i had to do-when i was a kid-
The rinks were managed by the parents of the kids who wanted to skate-
It’s not like we’re out of water or cold weather-

Today-Public Libraries look like castles-when all they really need is a few chairs and some shelves to hold books-
Parents/Schools again-can share the management and learn to budget the proceeds-to buy books-
reading-riting and rithmatic-that’s all we need to teach-
It’s a hell of a lot more then kids are learning now–
Such entitlements will be an shameful artifact of the past-10 years out and this is a “good thing”

#91 r u serious on 09.29.10 at 10:27 am

“I’m out of politics now. Thrown out, actually. I embody the person the system abhors. My writing and speaking and questioning led to my disgrace and destruction, dooced by a prime minister, shunned by wary colleagues. I will never run again. I have no party.

Hardly ‘disgraced’. Just not willing to toe the party line. Huge difference….and very refreshing.”

…is that you , Helena??

#92 Dan in Victoria on 09.29.10 at 10:54 am

Went down to the beach this morning . Sat on a log and watched the sun come up. Looked around and found a few flat rocks and skipped them across the water.
Got a few 5 ers.
But what really amazed me was the traffic every one heading off to their cubicles.
Dozens and dozens of cars and trucks.
You know what struck me, almost all of them were “newer vehicles”payment, after payment going to the banks.
Why?
How much money is being sucked out of peoples paychecks every month?
How much is being sucked out for mortgage payment interest?
Car loan interest?
Entertainment centers interest?
Take a look at what some of you pay every month for crap, yes crap.
Its all fine and dandy to blame the government for your monetary problems.
Sure there is some streamlining that could be done in government.
But look at your own issues first, get your own finances in order.
Does your kid need that fancy colored water drink, does spending 8 bucks for lunch every day make sense?
All that junk food in the cupboards, how much is that crap?

Cheap easy credit, why do some people not understand.

Spend your money wisely, think about where you want to be.
Make some small changes and sacrifices.
And you can come down to the beach with me and see how many skips you can get.

http://bigwavedave.ca/webcams.php?cam=6

#93 PTDBD on 09.29.10 at 11:04 am

Latest housing price stats:
http://www.calgaryherald.com/Calgary+house+prices/3596863/story.html

We toured some new homes yesterday, not for the purpose of buying, but rather to see how the rich live. House Porn in its purest form. They live LARGE.

These places are expensive. They are selling.

My conclusion, we sure cannot afford them, but a lot of people seem to have no problems buying through earnings, debt, or otherwise. I don’t know where all these people work…there must be a huge underground complex far below this town somewhere mining a huge gold or pot vein.

We are rapidly coming to the conclusion that the rich/everyone-else rift has become so enormous that “the money is no object” crowd has reached such wealth crescendo that they now have the means to gobble everything at any price. Just look at the new car and luxury car sales statistics.

When harvests fail and inflation is loosed, when social programs are cut off…that will be the final tolling of the bell for the lower and former middle classes.

#94 eddy on 09.29.10 at 11:17 am

the list of people that Harper tries to silence is Very Very long. A glimmer of hope for free speech here:

http://www.rabble.ca/news/2010/09/what-galloway-court-decision-means-free-speech-canada

#95 Prof ANON on 09.29.10 at 11:39 am

@ #70 John

The whole notion of “a great pogey summer” makes me sick.

#96 LTR,FTW on 09.29.10 at 11:53 am

My thesis is that we never did emerge from recession, and are bouncing along the bottom – a condition that will last at least a couple more years. This means the fools who believed 2009 marked a recovery and they could borrow their brains out sans repercussions are toast. I’ve told you to expect deflation for a while, including falling real estate values, at the same time as the cost of living rises. It’s a vice ready to squish the unwary.”

Gee Garth, I think you are wrong cause Ms. Cooper just won an award for predicting an end to all of this mess!

http://www.cbc.ca/fp/story/2010/09/29/3596145.html

If she says it’s over I guess it’s over, “Party On Eh ? ”

Maybe we don’t need to slash the public servant that actually provides the services, just the incompetent bureaucrats that manage the public service.

#97 PTDBD on 09.29.10 at 12:05 pm

PTDBD eats crow….

I’ve been corrected by someone with a much keener research eye than I that Iceland, Italy, Belgium, Norway, and Japan all have greater debt/capita than Canada according to this interactive map:

http://buttonwood.economist.com/content/gdc

For some reason, this did not set my mind at ease though, going forward.

#98 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 12:05 pm

#91 Dan In Victoria

Went down to the beach this morning . Sat on a log and watched the sun come up. Looked around and found a few flat rocks and skipped them across the water.
*******************************************

Priceless Dan.

I am looking looking forward to the last hurrah here. Full camp. This time of the year water is getting cooler, river is running at about 3 knots, bass are going on a feeding frenzie before winter sets in. Will be catching some nice size eatable bass ( 3 1/2 to 5 pounders ) throw bigger ones back for breeding.

Watching the river otters swimming around, bald eagle soaring in the sky, deer swimming. And towards the sunset the cry of the loon, while the harvest moon rises in the sky, going from a hue of orangey/red to a pale white .

Be sitting around campfire at night, drinking hooch with clients/friends… fall colors on leaves sure are pretty.

Wouldn’t trade that for the world.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TtvNLRSJyL4

#99 dark sad person on 09.29.10 at 12:10 pm

#86 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 10:09 am

***************

“1000 points of light”

Careful Bill-don’t wake the children–

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EisXJSsULGM&feature=related

#100 Genghis on 09.29.10 at 12:28 pm

Canada is still different. Despite record debt levels Canadians continue to load up on free money in order to buy new cars. Apparently we cannot resist all the manufacturer and dealer incentives. This is in contrast to sagging new auto sales in the rest of the developed world.

http://www.financialpost.com/news/Autos+flying+lots+Canada/3596133/story.html

#101 Live within your means on 09.29.10 at 12:34 pm

73 Paul on 09.29.10 at 8:45 am

Am I the only one that thinks you don’t really believe that?

You are among the few who appear to get it. Between subtlety and women’s underwear I seem to be at a loss. — Garth
………………..

Well I got it.

#102 dark sad person on 09.29.10 at 12:34 pm

#85 Lianne on 09.29.10 at 10:07 am

“Gold is not going to $3000, $5000… well maybe $3000.”

Garth Turner – Red Flag for Vancouver

*******************

Almost sounded like a “coming out” statement–

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgBCQ11WMg0

#103 Why why why on 09.29.10 at 12:58 pm

Why does this site have an ad for mortgages in the top right corner?

Why, why, why not? — Garth

#104 McSteve on 09.29.10 at 1:05 pm

As a moderate, I realize cuts will have to come but to what? Health Care? National Defence? Infrastructure? Social Programs? Environmental Protection? Unemployment Benefits? For anyone who thinks about it, they will realize how hard will be for all of us.

I can think one expenditure we shouldn’t make – more prisons that we don’t need. That won’t solve even 1% of the problem but we won’t dig ourselves in that much deeper.

#105 Live within your means on 09.29.10 at 1:05 pm

#67 S.B. on 09.29.10 at 8:00 am
Maybe Garth will find a place on the new “Fox North” an apparant ultra right-wing, fundamental fanatic TV news station? I hope not, but they will be looking for a new poster boy up here.
………………………………………

You think? Garth is a Red Tory, if I read him correctly. He’s no ultra right-wing con.

#106 dark sad person on 09.29.10 at 1:13 pm

OTTAWA – Canada’s economy is braking so rapidly that it likely contracted in July for the first time in almost a year, according to a consensus of economic forecasters.

The news may come as a surprise to many Canadians, who are constantly reminded by the government that their economy is among the strongest in the industrialized world. But analysts note that Canada’s strong rebound occurred mostly at the end of 2009 and the early part of 2010.

Since April, the economy has largely been treading water.

Now the consensus of economists is that Statistics Canada will report tomorrow that output pulled back 0.1 per cent in July, the first contraction since August 2009.

That doesn’t mean Canada is falling back into recession, they caution

http://nbbusinessjournal.canadaeast.com/transcript/article/1239755

**********************

GDP numbers tomorrow-
How many points of GDP are from stimulus Goosing-
Not to forget our secret little bastard war-that accounts for big GDP points-
Take those and all the other skewed numbers out and we’ll see a different picture-

#107 Live within your means on 09.29.10 at 1:20 pm

.#93 eddy on 09.29.10 at 11:17 am

Thanks for posting that link.

#108 joseph on 09.29.10 at 1:21 pm

Garth, as soon as nat gas goes back up and as oilsands expansion continues Alberta will not be in deficit. No tax increases coming here (except maybe federal but I doubt it). Incomes have been and will continue to rise, unemployment still under control at 6.5% with little signs of increase, not to mention the highest employment participation rate in the country and the highest wages of any province.

Ontario manufacturing dead/dying, Quebec would be screwed without transfer payments, Sask doing well, BC has problems…Eastern Canada has been a debacle for decades…
Where are the arguments specifically pertaining to Alberta?

Your arguments seem to be:
-rising taxes (not in Alberta)
-rising unemployment/poor economic outlook
(not in Alberta)
-energy price inflation (albertans already get cheaper nat gas if it goes up and if oil goes up much we should get rebates)
-poor demographics (again not in Alberta, according to http://www.finance.alberta.ca/aboutalberta/demographic_spotlights/2010-0728-census-families.pdf, number of “young families increased in Alberta between 2002-2009 from 17,000-21,000, while in Canada it declined by 4,000) so demographic arguments don’t appear to apply either)…

I’m not saying house prices will not fall, as I mentioned before, prices are actually down 15% from the peak from what I can see, but so many of your arguments appear to not apply to Alberta… House prices appear to be falling due to oversupply and lack of confidence in the market, I’m in the rental market and I am having no problems renting out units, and FYI many of my clients are buying properties which are cash flowing by thousands of dollars a year, (i’m not advising them to buy real estate, they make that choice on their own, and I professionally and diligently manage their properties if they choose to purchase investment property so do not call me a greedy realtor) I see demand for housing is not declining, just demand for owning at the moment…
Please refrain from a sarcastic “its different here” comment. If you dispute my points counter argue…

Alberta has fewer than 3 million people and a 70% homeownership rate. That makes it smaller than the GTA west of Yonge Street. The only way that make is sustainable is a large influx of capital. From where, cowboy? — Garth

#109 Any comments on this? on 09.29.10 at 1:21 pm

Using the Taylor rule, which measures inflation and output to estimate the ideal interest rate, the Bank of Canada’s benchmark should be about 2 percent, 1 percentage point higher than it is, according to Camilla Sutton and Sacha Tihanyi, currency strategists at Bank of Nova Scotia. The U.S. federal funds rate is 1.75 percentage points above its Taylor rule recommendation, which is below zero.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2010-09-29/taylor-rule-gap-with-u-s-at-15-year-high-signals-rate-jump-canada-credit.html

#110 Vancouver_bear on 09.29.10 at 1:38 pm

This brand new luxury condos complex available now exclusively for RENT as sales plan failed. http://www.dockyardsliving.ca/
More are on the way, stock on popcorn…. RE crash movie is just about to start in your neighborhood.

#111 PartyGirl on 09.29.10 at 1:43 pm

Wow really?! I read ‘Star Weekly’ and ‘Intouch’ magazines and they said everything was good in Hollywood :)

Are you sure America is so bad off?!

#112 Live within your means on 09.29.10 at 1:43 pm

#94 Prof ANON on 09.29.10 at 11:39 am
@ #70 John

The whole notion of “a great pogey summer” makes me sick.

……………….

Does paying into EI for years and, when one loses one’s job, and not receiving benefits make you sick? He now has offers and will accept a job.

I paid EI from its inception, IIRC. I started working in 65 full time. I moved from Mtl in June 76 (because of the political situation) to the Maritimes because my roots were here. BTW, went to visit friends in BC in 75 thinking I might move there. Like another poster, felt claustrophic, and told about the never ending rain during the winter.

I took the first summer break in ’76. Rec’d 1 EI cheque in my life and started working day after Labour Day until I retired. Don’t be so hasty to judge others.

I have a sis in Mtl. that paid into EI her total working life, never rec’d EI, and she was short 2 weeks from her latest job. Long story. Didn’t qualify. Is that fair? The rules/regs need to be changed.

#113 Burnaby Boy on 09.29.10 at 1:57 pm

I am all for government. What I am against is all this meddling. Imagine if our head began tampering with our bodies the way the government is now tampering with its body – the nation. I’ll move the heart here, lob an ear off there and graft in a couple of exotic kidneys there and change the blood flow to see what happens. Sober up Mr.Government.

#114 dark sad person on 09.29.10 at 2:02 pm

Carney is a game-changing central banker

And the youngest central banker among the world’s leading economies has joined the more than 350 groups opposing the federal Tories’ proposed scrapping of the mandatory long-form census. Detailed census data influences the Bank’s decision-making in steering the economy.

Carney, 45, is also an unusual figure for the job he holds. He spent most of his career in the private sector, as an investment banker at the pre-eminent Goldman Sachs Group. Yet, inspired by his father, a former Alberta mandarin, Carney pursued a second career in
public service.

To be sure, Carney’s stature at home and abroad derives in part from the high esteem for a Canadian banking system alone among major nations in not requiring a government bailout. And from more than a decade of federal budget probity that has Canada’s public finances in better shape than those of its G8 peers.

And in putting through impromptu calls to friends Ben Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, and Timothy Geithner, the U.S. treasury secretary. The Bank of Canada was among the earliest central banks to join the Fed in flooding $5 trillion (U.S.) into an illiquid world economy by April of last year, staving off a second Great Depression.

http://www.thestar.com/article/865817–olive-carney-is-a-game-changing-central-banker

*************************

It was only at the height of the global credit crisis that regulators woke up to how they’d been blindsided by, for instance, a $500-trillion (U.S.) unregulated derivatives market that seemingly appeared out of nowhere.

*************
$500 trill–Appeared out of “nowhere”

That’s quite funny seeing as how anyone that was blogging 10 years ago-seen it back then-yet GS North’s little blond haired boy-was blindsided by it huh

*********************

And in putting through impromptu calls to friends Ben Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, and Timothy Geithner, the U.S. treasury secretary.

***********************

That is even funnier–
Here’s what the call likely sounded like–

Ben for Christ sakes!
Our credit markets are locked solid-we have no liquidity-our Banks wont even lend to each other-cuz-
they know we’re “all” insolvent-
Do something!

Sure Mark–we’ll arrange a Shadow Swap-we can make it look like a- Hot Money Flow-we’ll do it all over the World-
Just don’t forget–we need to be paid back-with (cough) a “bit of interest of course-which the Peasants can be squeezed for-ya know–

Gotcha Ben–let her rip —

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/BIS%207.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/BIS%206.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/BIS%205.jpg

Here they

#115 rory on 09.29.10 at 2:18 pm

Karl D has some real good stuff to say (rant) on .gov debt in the US of A. Essentially, he says, the only way forward and out of the debt mess we are in now is to take the pain now – we need to change the status quo on how we do business.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167754

A snippet …

“Either way, you won’t protect your wealth with gold – the government will steal your wealth. Guaranteed.

You might buy currency or something somewhere outside the US. Won’t matter. Repatriating it will be subject to tax. Same problem – the government will steal it. ”

#78 r u serious said:

“Boy, hacking away at the Public Service might save some money but, do you think the public they serve is really ready for once-a-month garbage pick-up, skating rinks that are closed more often than they are open and libraries that can’t afford to buy books?”

As I have said before, just slash gov salaries and pension entitlements by 20% at all 3 levels off gov. including things like medical and health servcies. No layoffs or reduced services …just pissed off bureaucrats until they find out how bad things are in the private sector.

We also know the public sector is overpaid compared to the private side. No questions about it. I have posted links before.

So, what is public services biggest threats – strikes. Well we need to break the back of public unions to enable change so this is as good as time as any.

The best and brightest will move …well see ya. Look at what the best and brightest have done so far. Where are they all going to go as every country will be contracting public service. Docs, nurses, etc from other countries would love to come here at 20% off.

The reality is that the status quo cannot continue… we need change, real lasting reforms but we need people working. Private sector people working.

Increasing Canada’s debt load is just kicking the can down the road, as many have quoted before.

As Wimpy said – I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.

Last comment – think global wage arbitrage.

#116 Prof ANON on 09.29.10 at 2:21 pm

@111 Live within your Means

No what your describing doesn’t make me sick, and what happened to your sister is criminal. I have recently heard the phrase “pogey summer” used by a couple of different people to describe their habit of working until they qualify for benefits and then becoming conveinently unemployed. That is what makes me sick.

I should have been more specific. Apologies

#117 grumpy on 09.29.10 at 2:23 pm

This talk of ‘recovery’ is all nonsense

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/09/why-statistical-recovery-feels-bad.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo

#118 Timing is Everything on 09.29.10 at 2:29 pm

Garth said – “Hard times always breed simple solutions…”

Canada may be entering your ‘Hard times’ phase Garth…But PIIGS passed that phase already. I think they may be well into the next phase…

Desperate times call for desperate measures….as in…

desperate – (of persons) dangerously reckless or violent as from urgency or despair.

Our family is ready to ‘hunker down’ at anytime. And no, you just don’t decide one day to hunker down. By then it is too late…You plan/prepare for a ‘hunker’ in advance of possible catastrophic event(s)….from mild to wild ;)

#119 TheBigLebowski on 09.29.10 at 2:32 pm

After yesturday’s interview i liquidated all my pm investments and bought U.S real estate and preferreds. I have given in to the thought police and may change my blog name to Winston. WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH.”

“The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power. Not wealth or luxury or long life or happiness: only power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently. We are different from all the oligarchies of the past, in that we know what we are doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards and hypocrites. The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their own motives. They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and that just round the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal. We are not like that. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power.”-George Orwell-1949

This is where we are being led if people don’t become politically educated

#120 Cameroni on 09.29.10 at 2:35 pm

“Hard times always breed simple solutions”–Garth Turner

That was a good comment. So true too. And as things get more difficult economically the instruments used will just get more forceful and blunt. Like dental surgery with jackhammers and crowbars

#121 Mikey on 09.29.10 at 2:36 pm

Looking at the dockyard pics, are those electric baseboard heater I see??
Hmm…. you know that FTBs don’t ever wonder about utility and heating costs.

It’s the same everywhere. the first timers are going to pay dearly for their ignorance and unfortunately the economy feeds on it.

My wife tells me that if others lived like we do with purchasing quality items that last a long time, maintain cars and equipment properly, there would be no economy. I think she’s right.

#122 dark sad person on 09.29.10 at 2:53 pm

#108 Any comments on this? on 09.29.10 at 1:21 pm

**************

Sure-I’ll give it shot–
Of course the Market is signaling for higher rates-in fact-it has been for years-

This is only my Jaundiced view-so a grain of salt–

The reason rates have been lifted higher-is because Mark et al know what’s coming when the unwind starts really cooking (the first air pocket) when everyone is frozen in the headlights and wants “something done”
It would be really hard for Mark-to look like he’s doing “something” when rates are at zero–sooooo
They lift now and when the fire really starts roaring-they will take them back to zero and say–
It’s a friggen emergency-that “no one” could have seen coming-
But Look dammit!
We are doing “something”
We’re taking rates back to Zero and-this should bode well for the new economic recovery that will emerge soon–real soon-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDH7JqF_EFg&feature=fvsr

#123 WINNIPEGER on 09.29.10 at 2:55 pm

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/edu/power-pouvoir/ch1/images/pyramid.jpg

Lets not forget demographics!

Economic turmoil globally + Baby Boomers= Housing Disaster…..

What will this do to the United States whose real-estate market is already in turmoil—-answer: “The Greatest Depression”…..

#124 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 09.29.10 at 2:57 pm

#91 Dan in Victoria

Exactly right. They motor past the graveyard of economic broken dreams, failing to read the headstones marking personal stories of economic calamity. Therefore lessons are never learned.

After all, what the Hell? The lease is only five bills a month; the LOC’s low interest rates are good; the VRM lookin’ good (says the bankster). It’s all good; now for that $20.00 visit to my favourite sidewalk cafe before I start my two grand a month cubicle job!

That’s typical Victoria, all right.

Then I ran into another story about more pain and angst from south of the border; yet another reason why this opera ain’t over by a long shot.

Meredith Whitney is an American economist, with brains and good looks, a rarity these days for certain. When she speaks markets often move. She was out in front of the 2008 banking disaster with stunningly accurate forecasts (one comment freaked out the markets on one particular day that I recall, hundreds of points lost).

Her latest report forecasts much more debt-pain to come, at the state and local levels, in California, Illinois and a number of other states, and cities.

Why? The overwhelming accumulations of deficits and debts were based on the sure knowledge that house prices would never fall!

She writes: “The entire financial system was over-leveraged to real estate…”

States that grew the fastest during the good years, 2000-2008 were the ones where housing prices grew fastest, and where construction flourished (here that would be Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, etc.)

As a result there is a $200-billion tax shortfall for 2010 (next year will be an another horror story).

There is a lesson here for Mr. and Mrs. Canada: Wait for a similar fate as our real estate continues to unwind.

Just as Garth has been predicting for months, now, we look forward to higher taxes, municipally and provincially, to cover shortfalls generated by collapsing housing prices because we ALSO tied our hopes and dreams to suburbia!

Ms. Whitney’s report is entitled “Tragedy of the Common,” a reference to an old English yarn where cheap-skate local farmers allowed their sheep to consume public grasslands, rather than their own farmland, thus destroying a precious “common” public property.

She says it’s got so bad that cities and states are raiding public pension and health care funds to help cover costs.

She concludes: “The scarey thing is that no one wants to talk about it…the daunting scale of the numbers should get (taxpayers) outraged.”

This great unwind, or delerveraging, has many angles and stories, not one of which ends happily.

But end it shall, in poverty mainly, and how many of those monthly leases will wind up in the used car lots of the damned?

#125 Got A Watch on 09.29.10 at 2:57 pm

I’m sure there is some Dept of the Government, at some level, that provides a valuable service in an efficient manner.

I just can’t think of what that is.

So, cut Government by at least 90%. Lay off every single Swivel Servant at every level. Then re-assess if the remainder should be scrapped.

I am sure most people who don’t suck money from taxpayers (yes, those in productive parts of the economy, that contribute to lasting economic growth and prosperity) would not notice the absence of the blood sucking over paid over benefited non-productive public sector and their gold plated pension and benefit plans. A complete mis-allocation of resources.

Buh bye. Don’t let the door hit you in your fat ass on the way out.

Save the economy. Scrap the Government.

#126 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.29.10 at 3:13 pm

Apparently no one told “F” that there would be math in his job:

http://www.financialpost.com/news/Deficit+forecast+Flaherty+says/3598495/story.html

Can’t wait for that 15% HST!

#127 eaglebay on 09.29.10 at 3:35 pm

The year is 2010.
Fast forward to 2050. That’s only 40 years.
In 2010 you hopped on the time machine never to come back, on your way to the year 2050.
Before leaving you had the opportunity to take one million dollars with you in either, paper currency or gold.
Which one would you pick?

#128 Warren on 09.29.10 at 3:35 pm

“Alberta has fewer than 3 million people and a 70% homeownership rate. That makes it smaller than the GTA west of Yonge Street. The only way that make is sustainable is a large influx of capital. From where, cowboy? — Garth”

Hi Garth,

This was your response to post #107 from Joseph. I thought he had some valid points, your comment didn’t seem applicable though. I was interested to see what your specific comments to Alberta were. The influx of capital in terms of growth rates is much larger than Ontario. The fact that Alberta’s population is “smaller than the GTA west of Yonge Street” shouldn’t matter.

#129 Calgary Rip Off on 09.29.10 at 3:41 pm

#92 PTBD:

Your post is very one sided. There are many people who can afford vinyl sided shacks for $800K in Calgary that elsewhere would be $250K.

There are also those that spend all their earnings for the house, and subsist on noodles and water and no snow tires for winter.

Dont think so? Look around.

Yes everything is so grand in Calgary.

The median hasnt come down. Yet a person can get a lot more for the same money.

Why? Houses are still in a bubble condition. This is likely to be the stagnation story for a while, if not forever.

This is why next year my landlord will more than likely have to find new tenants. I dont see the point of waiting forever when my rent is the same as a mortgage.

#130 Keith in Calgary on 09.29.10 at 3:46 pm

RECESSION: Your neighbor loses his job
DEPRESSION: You lose your job
RECOVERY: Flaherty loses his job

#131 Subversive on 09.29.10 at 3:59 pm

Fabulous post today, Garth. I continue to read this blog despite the repetitive message simple because it keeps me focused on what matters. Not toys, gadgets, or cars, but freedom, flexibility, and family. Keep up the good work.

#132 PJWLK on 09.29.10 at 4:10 pm

“Every public dollar unspent is a dollar unearned by someone else.”
——
Can’t say I agree totally with that Garth. Unspent tax dollars should lead to reduction in taxes, which should lead to more discretionary spending, which if spent on Canadian products and services made would lead to more of our people earning a dollar instead of being stripped of what little they have left.

#133 dark sad person on 09.29.10 at 4:10 pm

#125 T.O. Bubble Boy on 09.29.10 at 3:13 pm

But it will be north of $50-billion,” Mr. Flaherty told reporters in Ottawa.

He also said GDP data for July, due out on Thursday, may be “a bit negative”.

***************

“North of 50”
Wasn’t there some really (as usual-shit drivel) CBC program given that name?

Anyway-he ain’t gonna be painted into a corner with numbers–cuz-North of 50
The sky’s the limit-

Also-GDP-in spite of North of 60 B-stimulus-
It could be a “bit” negative–

The guy is getting better at reading C’s script-
He’s gonna have me agreeing with him next-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-pywHFUbGw&feature=related

#134 EdmontonJim on 09.29.10 at 4:11 pm

#118 TheBigLebowski

Been thinking that as I’ve read the posts actually. I’ve been reading lately on quintile disparity in the U.S. At this point the top 20% in the U.S. control about 85% of the total wealth, while the bottom 40% own virtually nothing. More alarming is that nearly no-one realises this. Even more alarming is that the trend is accellerating. The truly alarming part is that Canada is not much better.

The real estate bubble and crash only serves to remove wealth from the middle class (The bottom don’t have any more to take) and move it to the top.

The only way out is to flee greed and fear. Consume less than you produce, educate yourself, fight the battles that can be won, and know your friends from your foes.

Garth was kicked out of politics because he spoke against greed and fear that seem to be the true masters of our country. This blog is a continuation of that fight. I’ve never heard Garth spout any get-rich-quick schemes or end-of-the-world theories.

There are too many grasshoppers that label anyone who says “winter is coming” as a doomer and goldbugs who only see get-rich-quick schemes because thats all they look for.

So right on Garth, be careful, be liquid, be brave.

I’d add to that: be wise; fall is here, winter is coming, and after that the spring. The prepared have nothing to fear.

#135 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 4:41 pm

Re #113 dark sad person

That is even funnier–
Here’s what the call likely sounded like–

Ben for Christ sakes!
Our credit markets are locked solid-we have no liquidity-our Banks wont even lend to each other-cuz-
they know we’re “all” insolvent-
Do something!

Sure Mark–we’ll arrange a Shadow Swap-we can make it look like a- Hot Money Flow-we’ll do it all over the World-
Just don’t forget–we need to be paid back-with (cough) a “bit of interest of course-which the Peasants can be squeezed for-ya know–

Gotcha Ben–let her rip –
******************************************

Beautiful translation, alot easier for me to understand, having only grade 11. Will be going to store to get more vaseline. lol.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrTMHiAD0ro
( don’t turn volume up to loud)

#136 TakingResponsibility on 09.29.10 at 4:52 pm

Great post, Garth, and I echo your question, “So, where are all the new ideas?”

How can we all make a fair living in a liveable land?

Beyond nostalgia, surely there are new positive, creative ideas…

#137 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.10 at 4:54 pm

#111 Live within your means on 09.29.10 at 1:43 pm
—————————————————
I hear ya. My now-pregnant wife worked a year-long co-op/contract (May ’09 to April ’10) then had to take the summer off to complete school.

She paid into the system for a year but doesn’t qualify for EI or maternity benefits because she is considered a student and therefore not ‘actively looking for a job’.

The system is definitely broken.

#138 Herb on 09.29.10 at 5:03 pm

Got a Watch @ #124,

Right on! Save the economy by scrapping the government – and letting corporations run amok.

You’re well versed in economics, Watch. How did that work out in the 19th Century?

#139 David_Ricardo on 09.29.10 at 5:11 pm

For you gold bugs in mining stocks…start taking profits. All others, listen to Garth.

#140 MrSuzi on 09.29.10 at 5:12 pm

“Thrown out, actually. I embody the person the system abhors. My writing and speaking and questioning led to my disgrace and destruction, dooced by a prime minister, shunned by wary colleagues”

– So was Socrates, Garth. Be thankful they did not give you an earful of hemlock for asking too many questions!

#141 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 5:12 pm

#124 Got A Watch

So, cut Government by at least 90%. Lay off every single Swivel Servant at every level. Then re-assess if the remainder should be scrapped.

*******************************************
Absolutely.

A friend of mine works for Revenue Canada. Been there over 25 years. Has been turned down for promotions , even though he is the most qualified. The reason being that there has to be a certain % of visible minorities in all levels, REGARDLESS OF QUALIFICATIONS. Wonderful.

Also he has told me, it doesn’t matter how many returns he looks at in one day as long as he is seated in the chair.

This is applied in all aspects of the government where no longer does the best qualified person get the job, regardless of race / creed / colour.

We have become so politically correct that rarley anything ever gets done because of the bureaucratic redtape. along with the ever popular slogan ” Cover Your Ass”.

This is why things move ever so slowly, requiring even more people too accomplish what one normal person would do in the “REAL WORLD”.

#142 Devore on 09.29.10 at 5:15 pm

#131 PJWLK

Can’t say I agree totally with that Garth. Unspent tax dollars should lead to reduction in taxes, which should lead to more discretionary spending, which if spent on Canadian products and services made would lead to more of our people earning a dollar instead of being stripped of what little they have left.

But that’s not true when the government is running a deficit (and who isn’t). That’s because deficits don’t matter, and that is because everyone agrees borrowed money never has to be repaid, as long as it can be rolled over. And when it can’t, look out below! Until then, borrow to infinity, and beyond!

Hey, it’s only money.

#143 Devore on 09.29.10 at 5:21 pm

#137 Herb

You’re well versed in economics, Watch. How did that work out in the 19th Century?

It worked by giving us the greatest period of (real) growth ever, rapidly rising standard of living, a stable and appreciating currency, and, oh yeah, gave birth to the middle class, which might well be gone before the end of the 21st?

#144 Mean Gene on 09.29.10 at 5:54 pm

Pogey summer, UIC Ski team… nothing changes, people out shafting the system.

“Who loves ya baby?” karma that’s who.

#145 whiterock1 on 09.29.10 at 5:55 pm

I emailed in on Sunday , still no response

Garth Turner Seminar in Surrey (2 pm)
Oct 15th, 2010 – Northview Golf and Country Club

#146 Why, why, why on 09.29.10 at 6:03 pm

Why does this site have an ad for mortgages in the top right corner?

Why, why, why not? — Garth

===============

Just seems strange to call people fools and have an ad there.

#147 Midas on 09.29.10 at 6:06 pm

On my various walks and rides around the west side of Van the past few weeks, my radar detected an uptick in new construction. A sign of revival in RE or new crosses in a graveyard?

A friend who’s very keen on RE had a look at Athlete’s Foot, those units the Olympians stayed in. His take: they’ll never sell.

#148 whiterock1 on 09.29.10 at 6:12 pm

73 Chaos on 09.23.10 at 11:39 am

Venus & Mars
September 22nd, 2010

.#73 Chaos on 09.23.10 at 11:39 am
Grantmi

Re: The condo development on the K.G.

I don’t think that the developer will be able to sell off the remaining units with even a 35% haircut.

FYI dawgs, the development has fantastics views of a giant Canadian Tire garage and a Staples store on one side, a Ford dealership(auto mall) on the other side and a major roadway on another side.

The development also features a drive-thru shopping mall at street level with the condos built above the stores.

This is a good location for a business because of all the other business activity happening around the development, but…

Not a great place to drop 400K on an apartment.

IMHO

———————

100 grantmi on 09.23.10 at 3:01 pm

#73 Chaos on 09.23.10 at 11:39 am

Grantmi

Re: The condo development on the K.G.

I don’t think that the developer will be able to sell off the remaining units with even a 35% haircut.

Can you imagine the poor developer across the King George Hwy., trying to sell HIS new development (which just started) after this!!!

Ouch! Ouch, and more Ouch!!

“Move Along!! Nothing to see here but a Surrey Drive bye

*******************************

I lease in the building 2950 accross from the watermark,
I’ve been here for a year now ,I enjoyed the location but will not renew my lease due to the poor quailty/workmen/craftmenship , theft , the nightly drug deals and the noise.

I went in to see what type of action they were getting, believe it or not 13 units were sold as of yesterday and their display suite were full of lookies, young 5% buyers no doubt. It is truley amazing how many people are still buying out here.

#149 Debtfree on 09.29.10 at 6:15 pm

@126 eaglebay if I can I would like to bring one of my blue chip drips in my tfsa . tia

#150 dark sad person on 09.29.10 at 6:23 pm

#140 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 5:12 pm

We have become so politically correct that rarley anything ever gets done because of the bureaucratic redtape. along with the ever popular slogan ” Cover Your Ass”.

***********

Yes-Government is the biggest drag on competitive Industry and Innovation-
We have such protectionist policies here and the ones that are favored CBC/Air Canada/Bombardier blah blah still cannot compete in World Markets-without the dole-

Our Banks are totally unregulated in the sense of Reserve Requirement ratios-which are non existent-
(phased out)
Meaning they can print any number of dollars X checking deposits-which means-if-
everyone-or likely even half the people tried to withdraw their funds the same day-the Banks don’t have it ):

They would be seen as technically insolvent-as in–
They digitally/credit printed more then real cash base–
How much more?
Sleep well–

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXfyDbkINPo

But-cheer up-cuz we know the Govenator in Cali–issued devaluing IOU’s-so why not us too?

#151 young & foolish on 09.29.10 at 6:34 pm

do people really know how much they depend on government “programs” …. including private companies?

Get out of real assets, and get into liquid financial ones …. just make sure you steer clear of future Enrons, short term thinking CEOs, and Bernie Madoffs ….

Gosh, I hope Garth is right about the future of equities … they haven’t been doing much since 2000

#152 The Original Dave on 09.29.10 at 6:43 pm

you know G Man, I’m offended by your picture. There was a time a few years ago when a person was protesting and he was hit by a car. I think this is a direct and intentional insult to that person. Also, protesters are a reflection and representation of middle class, hard-working people trying to improve lives for the majority. This is a tasteless picture…………………………..just joking!

I’m just trying to keep with the delusional people from yesterday that were offended by the picture. I hope you all took your meds today!

#153 dark sad person on 09.29.10 at 6:44 pm

Bill-
sorry forgot the link-
this is about all there is–the rest of the download is
“restricted” Verboten!
***********************

Do Central Banks Need Minimum Reserves?

In this paper I tried to show that the economic arguments in support of reserve requirements are not strong. Reserve requirements were long regarded as an essential instrument for the control of the money supply and the ultimate target variables of monetary policy. However, a substantial body of research suggests that the importance of reserve requirements for monetary control has been overstated. Central banks operating in highly developed and globalized financial markets are well advised to employ market-related techniques of monetary policy, rather than to rely on quantitative restrictions such as reserve requirements. If reserve ratios are high, such requirements may even turn out to be counterproductive in that they distort deposit and credit flows. This is likely to undermine the indicator role of monetary aggregates and to complicate the tasks of central banks. Nevertheless, modest reserve requirements may assist central banks in the operational aspects of monetary policy. Ample reserves allow commercial banks to play a shock-absorber role in the money market. Commercial-bank buffer stocks reduce the need for central banks to moderate interest-rate volatility by “fine-tuning” their money-market operations and/or by acting as lenders of first resort to commercial banks.

http://ideas.repec.org/a/ses/arsjes/1997-iv-3.html

#154 jess on 09.29.10 at 7:22 pm

So the ladies want to run their own (sex)business ? Wait until you see how competition affects your prices. There is an endless supply coming from many countries.
because the “west” feeds the demand.
=================
They said there were hundreds of brothels, each housing up to 200 girls, run by Nigerian “madams” who force them to work against their will and take their earnings.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-11438341
===============
Yep, Brazil is booming
In Brazil, along with partner organisations, we are working to mitigate the effects of this insidious trend; reports state that the country is overtaking Thailand as the most popular destination for child sex tourism. Despite Brazil’s growing economy, street children in cities like Recife, in the north-east of the country, are turning to prostitution simply to afford a plate of food.

Life on the street for these children is grim and often punctuated by violence, drug addiction and sexual abuse. Many girls fall pregnant by the age of 12. The statistics are heart-wrenching – Unicef estimates that there are as many as 250,000 child prostitutes in Brazil. Faced with this alarming epidemic, we and our partners are engaged in a daily struggle to help street children by giving them a safe place and, hopefully, a chance to rebuild their lives.
========================
Eight people, including two women, reportedly remained in custody.

The 136-metre (446t) luxury ship, named Savarona, had been leased to a businessman by the finance ministry.

“I gave the necessary instructions for the cancellation of the ship’s lease,” Mehmet Simsek, the finance minister, told the news agency, adding that the culture ministry should now take ownership of the vessel. “If the company does not agree on the cancellation of the ship’s licence we will take the case to court and make the effort to have it annulled by a court ruling.”

Leaders of the sex ring allegedly charged clients between $3,000 (£1,900) and $10,000 for a night with the prostitutes, who were said to have originated from Russia and Ukraine.
=
An Iranian gang who tried to sell young female virgins to wealthy Arabs charging up to £150,000 a girl, was jailed for sex trafficking and prostitution today.

#155 John on 09.29.10 at 7:24 pm

@ #94 Prof ANON
“The whole notion of “a great pogey summer” makes me sick.”

That’s because you’ve never had a great summer like mine! :)

#156 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 7:29 pm

Re # 152 dark sad person

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwaeD0SHbXs

#157 Dan in Victoria on 09.29.10 at 7:45 pm

Bill @ 97
Yeah, season is coming to an end.
Here’s a bit of paradise that I go to on a regular basis, takes a long time to learn the area, got lots of secret spots accesible only by boat.
Crabs, clams, oysters, prawns, halibut, salmon, cod all close by.
We notify the brewery to add an extra shift before we head up.
LOL.
Theres more to life than that cubicle to go to every morning.
http://www.seabeamcanada.ca/

#158 prairie gal on 09.29.10 at 7:45 pm

#140 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 5:12 pm
#124 Got A Watch

So, cut Government by at least 90%. Lay off every single Swivel Servant at every level. Then re-assess if the remainder should be scrapped.

*******************************************
Absolutely.

A friend of mine works for Revenue Canada. Been there over 25 years. Has been turned down for promotions , even though he is the most qualified. The reason being that there has to be a certain % of visible minorities in all levels, REGARDLESS OF QUALIFICATIONS. Wonderful.

Also he has told me, it doesn’t matter how many returns he looks at in one day as long as he is seated in the chair.

This is applied in all aspects of the government where no longer does the best qualified person get the job, regardless of race / creed / colour.

We have become so politically correct that rarley anything ever gets done because of the bureaucratic redtape. along with the ever popular slogan ” Cover Your Ass”.

This is why things move ever so slowly, requiring even more people too accomplish what one normal person would do in the “REAL WORLD”.
_____

The exact same crap occurs in large corporations, Bill. Lazy, shiftless workers who manage to get away with doing nothing all day with no accountability. Then there is the nepotism (arguably worse than your affirmative action), bullying etc. When was the last time you worked in the real world?

In places like Revenue Canada they keep track of the number of files each officer opens and closes – its all automated. Maybe your friend was not promoted on the basis of his record?

#159 Sam on 09.29.10 at 7:46 pm

Hey Garth
last time the economy was about to go into the crapper Harper called an election.

Want to guess on probabilities that he’ll do it again?

Better early than in the mids of a huge economic meltdown.

#160 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 7:47 pm

Garth I think we should let Nostradamus jr. back in . In my opinion he has been in pugatory long enough.

Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad has informed me that his sessions have been going quite well.

Sort of like ‘ NEW AND IMPROVED”

#161 Dan in Victoria on 09.29.10 at 7:54 pm

Victoria Tea Party @123
Yeah you’ll get trampled in Victoria now.
My dear town is changing…..
More and More , me, me, me.
I had to go from Colwood to Oak Bay the other morning. (About 10 miles) One and a half hours, one hour back that afternoon.
No more of that crap for me. Thats why I went down to the beach this morning, wanted to see all the drones heading to the hive, then to turn 180 degress for the beautiful views.
I just hope some of them read this blog and are able to learn how to escape and enjoy.

#162 prairie gal on 09.29.10 at 8:11 pm

I’ve collected EI before. The job market when I was coming out of my undergrad was brutal. I moved to the coast and found low-wage work in a hotel until I found something in the engineering field through a graduate employment program of the BC NDP government. There were four or five of us recent grads doing a lot of low-level stuff, but it was a paycheck and it kept us out of trouble. I’m a big supporter of these types of make-work programs, even if they aren’t ‘efficient’.

Being on EI can be a real drag if your sense of self-worth comes from your occupation and having a place to be everyday, like with so many people. I was happier temping than setting up ‘informational interviews’ and chasing down potential employers, feeling so pathetically desperate. You can’t collect EI whilst out of the country. I did wish they would let you attend university. Sure beats sitting around, depressed.

#163 john m on 09.29.10 at 8:22 pm

#158 Sam on 09.29.10 at 7:46 pm

Hey Garth
last time the economy was about to go into the crapper Harper called an election.

Want to guess on probabilities that he’ll do it again?

Better early than in the mids of a huge economic meltdown.
——- IMO Sam i think Harper and his cronies are toast..every day another news release about abuse of power by this government…..the comments on CBC news about their actions shows a whole lot of people have had enough.

#164 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 09.29.10 at 8:35 pm

#49 Numbers. — “We cannot learn unless we make mistakes.”

Nicely pointed out. That’s what this classroom of a planet is for — to learn from our experiences.

#57 CalamityJoe — “Would someone please explain since Garth can’t or won’t?”

Fairly simple, but most don’t understand. As sure as tomorrow is Thursday, the cycles of the five root races are also changing.

Black – Brown – Red – Yellow – White. The yellow-red race will be holding the head seat (China – Japan – Mongolia – Russia, etc.), so all we can do is protect ourselves and help those less fortunate.

Each cycle lasts for around 250 years, so we are seeing the end of the white cycle.

#74 Bill (Peterborough) — “Shit, I was under the illusion of : this is our country not theirs. Silly me. NOT.”

I can add you into deep, subliminal m$m group therapy (including Nosty Jr.) if you’re still under that delusion!

#114 rory — “Last comment – think global wage arbitrage.”

Sure glad we’re retired and no longer subject to govt. / private sector’s whims.

#126 eaglebay — Pure one- and five-ounce gold coins. Interesting question.

#129 Keith in Calgary — Excellent analogy!

Bill (Peterborough) — Delighted to have made your acquaintance via phone today. Having met Old Is Gold last weekend, and shortly to meet Devil’s Advocate and Nostradamus Jr., I like your idea — getting together next fall in Peteborough.

If circumstances dictate that we can have an earth-shattering meeting, then let’s do it!

We’ll keep in touch! P.S. TheBigLebowski and a few others — Bill will be open for business next fall!

Remember — The Canadian Rock is as strong as a Fudge Fart!

#165 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 8:59 pm

#157 Prairie Girl

The exact same crap occurs in large corporations, Bill. Lazy, shiftless workers who manage to get away with doing nothing all day with no accountability. Then there is the nepotism (arguably worse than your affirmative action), bullying etc. When was the last time you worked in the real world?

*******************************************

Every time you blog truly shows your ignorance on alot of subjects.

If this crap goes on in the private sector, they usually do not stay in business for very long. The exception being if they are unionized, which in my opinion protect the dogf—-rs. ( part of the reason why big business has gone elsewhere in the world)

Then the subject of nepotism. IT GOES ON EVERYWHERE.

Bullying ? What bullying, just because time and time again you have been exposed for your one sided socialist opinions. ( don’t confuse me with the facts my mind is made up, thinking pattern)

The last time I had to work in the real world because I had too was 2002. Now I work because I choose too.

Was self employed for the most part, hands on , old school. Not silver spoon fed.

Worked for everything I have , made some smart investments in real estate and I am sitting pretty comfortabley now.

When I did work because I had too my work week was between 50-80hr .

So I guess you do really reap what you sow.

Oh by the way I am under 50 years old.

Never could understand how anyone could sit on their ass all day , do nothing and get payed.

But alot do exist: working for the government, trying to justify their jobs/careers . ( trying to convince the piblic that they are truly needed)

#166 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 9:05 pm

Re # 156 Dan In Victoria

Looks like a great spot. Might have to come out there some time. You’ll have to show me the ropes.

Dan , your going have to get out on this side eventually for some serious bass fishing.

#167 Timing is Everything on 09.29.10 at 9:23 pm

#142 Devore said – It worked by giving us the greatest period of (real) growth ever, rapidly rising standard of living, a stable and appreciating currency, and, oh yeah, gave birth to the middle class, which might well be gone before the end of the 21st?

However, it is unsustainable, therefore a failure (will fail – it is not a choice) Infinite growth in a finite world….Do the math.

#168 WINNIPEGER on 09.29.10 at 9:26 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/doczone/meltdown/

Part 4 –on tomorrow night….. comments?

#169 Bah on 09.29.10 at 10:03 pm

Absolutely.

A friend of mine works for Revenue Canada. Been there over 25 years. Has been turned down for promotions , even though he is the most qualified. The reason being that there has to be a certain % of visible minorities in all levels, REGARDLESS OF QUALIFICATIONS. Wonderful.

Also he has told me, it doesn’t matter how many returns he looks at in one day as long as he is seated in the chair.

This is applied in all aspects of the government where no longer does the best qualified person get the job, regardless of race / creed / colour.

——————–

They have to balance things out as these cushy jobs were only for white people only for the longest time.

Read those Gloat & Mail stories on the weekend where people show off their money – “Me and my wife and 5 kids all worked for the fed gov and now we have decided to retire at 50 with a half a million dollar diamond encrusted pension each – oh how oh how can we retire”

#170 Timing is Everything on 09.29.10 at 10:15 pm

#160 Dan in Victoria

Well, Dan, in 30 years 2010 will be the good ol’ days of
Victoria/Van. Isl. You can only escape physical reality in your mind….
Which might actually be the real reality. Hmmm, go figure?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsCyC1dZiN8

#171 the commenter formerly known as... on 09.29.10 at 10:17 pm

Co-worker owns a condo in Van. Told me the price wouldn’t go down…said units in her building were still selling very well. I told her all the areas around Van. including the Island, Okanagan and the Valley were all being hit….I even hand shook and bet her $1000.00 on it….

Darn…Van prices had better come down hard of I’ll have to eat a big one there

#172 Devore on 09.29.10 at 10:22 pm

#166 Timing is Everything

However, it is unsustainable, therefore a failure (will fail – it is not a choice) Infinite growth in a finite world….Do the math.

Compounding growth, be it savings or debt, is unsustainable. Linear growth, proportional to population, is fine. Obviously, we won’t see the rapid pace of technological advancement we have today, fueled by so much credit and cheap money. But the growth will be sustainable, which then serves as a solid springboard to all sorts of wishful enterprises, like universal social services (that are actually paid for), saving the environment (which is in apparent perpetual dire straights), etc.

#173 nonplused on 09.29.10 at 10:28 pm

#48 oilsand eddy

Why would you want to nationalize the oil industry? The government is already the largest shareholder and gains the largest profit via royalties and energy taxes at the retail level. If you throw in income taxes on oil companies and oil company employees, I am not sure the risk of reduced efficiency under government control is worth it.

#107 joseph

I don’t see natgas prices coming back up until there is a massive consolidation in the industry, and maybe not even then. And I am not alone. The free research available on line paints a bad enough scenario, the paid analysts are projecting even worse news. The long and the short of it is that the shale gas revolution is real, seems somewhat economic, and in a few short years the US won’t need as much gas from Canada. Actually the export volume is down now and netbacks on transportation suck. Which is kind of a bummer since the US is our major market.

#174 Dan in Victoria on 09.29.10 at 11:21 pm

Timing is Everthing @ 169
I know..these are the good old days….
I won’t be here in 30 years, well maybe, but i’ll be a pretty high miler then.
I’ve got pictures of Colwood / Langford from the old days oh my how it has changed.
For the good I suppose, but I miss the bonfires and skating down at Hulls Potato field, you know right where Starbucks is now……
Excellent, Jethro Tull and Louis Armstrong today.
Great taste by the way.

#175 JM in London on 09.29.10 at 11:30 pm

#164 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.29.10 at 8:59 pm

You’d be surprised at how are view points are actually similar in a lot of ways.

I agree as to the government or any unionized company has had a distortion of an original organization (remember they began to prevent things like loss of life and brutal working conditions imposed by those “one percenters” who controlled the serfs) forced down their throats. The result of a cancerous mutation of the original that can’t really be called a parasite as even the most ferocious parasite of any kind of success doesn’t kill the host. What I think has happened is the same overkill you see in market oscillations, lemming populations, etc., where they’ve become so bloated there is massive and destabilizing imbalances.

A few days ago I referred to education – which you mistook as “fancy book learning” which I do give some stock to (tends to round out critical thinking skills if nothing else) which I wasn’t referring to at all. I was referring to life experience, balanced research, healthy scepticism and pain staking critical thinking. Where you nihilists loose me is that the critical thinking (and you do display quite a bit) seems to break down and then get all fringe and odd. I consider myself a Christian even that does raise a few issues even there as there are about 3/5 or more of the planet who believe something different and extremist views of all stripes usually prove patently wrong…

Psst – The conspiracy theories fall in the extremist category

Careful how hard you goof on one of the cornerstones of the middle class you guys claim is being destroyed by “them”…

People tend to listen to a consistent message after all. Who’s blog is this anyway?

It is yellowjacket season after all

#176 Dan in Victoria on 09.29.10 at 11:33 pm

Bill @ 165
Bass fishing eh?
Never tried that, definately wouldn’t mind giving that a rub.
You guys can get beer out there I hope?
Might visit someone out that way next year…
somewheres on Yonge Street…..
I’ll bring some of my secret reciepe smoked salmon and get you all hooked. LOL

#177 Timing is Everything on 09.29.10 at 11:49 pm

#171 Devore

“Therefore economists should be very interested in impossibility theorems, especially the one to be demonstrated here, namely that it is impossible for the world economy to grow its way out of poverty and environmental degradation. In other words, sustainable growth is impossible.”

read more http://dieoff.org/page37.htm

#178 Timing is Everything on 09.30.10 at 12:04 am

#173 Dan in Victoria

Hey, I hear ya…We only moved here in ’89 and I miss the
good ol’ days of Victoria from even 20 years ago. Starbucks…pfft.

#179 Vancouver_bear on 09.30.10 at 12:08 am

#120 Mikey on 09.29.10 at 2:36 pm

Dockyards are not for SALE. They are all for RENT!!!

#180 Bill ( Peterborough) on 09.30.10 at 12:48 am

Re # 174 JM in London

A few days ago I referred to education – which you mistook as “fancy book learning” which I do give some stock to (tends to round out critical thinking skills if nothing else) which I wasn’t referring to at all. I was referring to life experience, balanced research, healthy scepticism and pain staking critical thinking. Where you nihilists loose me is that the critical thinking (and you do display quite a bit) seems to break down and then get all fringe and odd. I consider myself a Christian even that does raise a few issues even there as there are about 3/5 or more of the planet who believe something different and extremist views of all stripes usually prove patently wrong…

Psst – The conspiracy theories fall in the extremist category
*******************************************

Interesting play of words.

If you truly are a “Practicing Christian”, then you know there is a God as well as satan.

God gave satan permission to run the world for a while, then will finally vanquish him.

Satan, the father of all lies , has great power.

Satans object is to take as many souls as possible, with him when cast down in the lake of fire.

So being of the christian faith our rewards are not of this world. Because you cannot serve the Lord and mammon both.

Now the greatest trick satan played on this earth was convincing people he did not exist. By doing this the majority of people no longer believe in “God’. So alot of people believe they must acquire everything possible here in their life time.

Their is a group of very powerful people controlling the majority of wealth in this world who truly believe that they are supreme beings, under satans false guidance.

As far as calling us critical thinkers followed by the break down of our thought patterns on conspiracies, I will try to explain. Yes we do alot of reading and crossreferencing to seek the truth and expose what is really going on. It’s all out there.

If one person says something which the masses think is far fetched, well OK. But when alot of people start saying the same general ideas, maybe it is not so far fetched.

We , the so called conspiracy nuts, do not know when the end of the world will come, only God knows.

We do not know what satan will do next either.

But what we do know is that satan is hard at work, by using people throughout the world for his benifit.

So we are constantly trying to expose the evils which he is creating through all different levels of society.

Practicing Christians do not worry about the outcome, for they already know. What we worry about is whether we have done all we can, as christians, in this short life of ours( through trials and tribulations)

Hope this helps you out abit.

Oh by the way Christ was thought to be a conspiratest / extremist by the Pharases.

And so were christians.

#181 Mr.Green on 09.30.10 at 5:05 am

Garth,

You are a Canadian and someone that cares about Canada.
Yes you had a P.M. that opened the door and thrown you under the bus.
But who cares.
I really think you need to get off your butt and do something for Canada.
Run for the leadership of the Green Party of Canada.
You can change Politics in Canada.
You have the Experience,Knowledge,Passion and Love for Canada to make it Happen.
Canadians from coast to coast have had enough of the main parties.You have the power to change Politics in Canada.
Garth stand up for Canada and get your head out of the sand.
Your a real true Canadian that want’s change well Canadians want change too.
We have been waiting for the right person to change the Canadian Political System in Canada.

Garth you have the passion to make this happen.

Stop writeing and get serious about Canada’s future.

Go Green Thanks

#182 Squidly77 on 09.30.10 at 5:18 am

It’s about to turn very nasty, very nasty indeed.
Never think that Government is your friend.

keith, glad you used that file I pit in your cake to get out of jail; call me i have a plan

#183 Mark on 09.30.10 at 12:40 pm

I eventually gave up waiting for your book “Money Road” at the library as I started in position 45 at the Vancouver library, and after a couple of months I am still waiting.

So I just ordered and received your book through your site: http://shop.xurbia.ca/products/money-road

I must say I am very pleased with with my order. The address on the front was hand written with standard Canadian stamps, and not only did you sign the inside of the book, you wrote a brief comment at the top. Much more effort and care than other distributors. Thanks.

#184 jimsanderson on 09.30.10 at 2:14 pm

Housing Overvalued

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/article1734769.ece

#185 Ben on 09.30.10 at 4:41 pm

Yawn… watching, waiting on real estate prices to come down is worse then watching paint dry.
Up one week, down the next, pretty much flat if you ask me.

Maybe you should work on reading comprehension. I’ve said many times the lag between sales and prices is months long, which only makes sense. — Garth