Canaries

CHEK1

I took some hours yesterday to tour a few listings in Vancouver. Frame houses, 80-years-old, in serious need of repair, in neighbourhoods I’d only move into with a German shepherd, for $800,000. Even so, such homes are attracting multiple bids, and selling for over list. Sometimes $300,000 over list.

But it’s not just Van. Toronto’s got it, too. The latest numbers show house sales in the first half of this month jumped 85% over last November. In fact, across Canada, if you can believe CREA, monthly sales are ahead 41.5% and the average price has soared 20% in a year.

The media says this is good news. Bank economists are thrilled. The feds will point to increased housing activity as proof of an economic renaissance.

But it ain’t. It’s trouble.

This is because government policies, mainly stunningly low interest rates, have created asset bubbles at just the worst moment – when we cannot afford to have them burst.

That struck Friday morning as I walked into a TV station in Victoria. In fact, CHEK is one of only two television operations on Vancouver Island and was, until a few weeks ago, a Global affiliate. It’s also the oldest TV signal in the West, going on air back in 1956. But, teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, Global wanted to shutter the operation (as it did several other stations) and was ready to, until a brazenly brave little band of employees and 10 investors took it over.

The price: $2. For that, they got a few million worth of electronic assets, a bunch of obligations including immediate operating costs, and a massive challenge. They also had to lease the building back from Global, but all they could afford was the first floor. And even that’s half empty.

My point: Media outlets are the new canaries in our economic coalmines. When local businesses falter and fail, they stop advertising. When that cash flow disappears, the canary dies. In fact, no matter where I travel, and despite what people might be paying each other for houses, the real economy is sputtering – regardless of the billions governments have thrown at it.

Back to the housing bubble. It’s just one of many. World stocks markets have added about 70% to their value since the lows of last March. The price of oil has more than doubled since the winter. Gold bullion’s at a record high.

There is no coincidence this – or the Canadian housing bubble – has happened concurrently with zero interest rates in the States or the plunging American dollar. The asset bubbles we are seeing around us are the direct result of monetary policy which is outrageously irresponsible and could well be irreparably damaging. By crashing rates to almost nothing, the Fed and the Bank of Canada have encouraged borrowing excess that could plunge us into the second leg down of a W-recession.

Why? Simply because this borrow-a-thon is doing nothing to actually stimulate the economy. Oh yeah, realtors and mortgage lenders are feasting, but no more factories are being built or productive jobs created as a result. The only lasting legacy of these months of “accommodative monetary policy” will be billions in consumer, household and government debt.

Worried about the same outcome, US regulators are now urgently probing American banks to see if they have the capital reserves and the mechanisms in place to deal with a crash in asset values. And worried they should be. Cheap rates haven’t been enough to rescue the American housing industry or the country’s middle class. As this week ended, word came that real estate to the south of us is on ‘life support’. Housing starts have collapsed – down 30% below last year’s level – and homeowners are in increasingly desperate shape. One in seven is in default or foreclosures. Sixteen million families are in negative equity. House prices are tumbling again.

Obviously a second recessionary plunge – of the kind Obama warned of a few days ago – precipitated by US government debt or the inevitable bursting of stock, commodity or real estate bubbles of its own making, will be dire.

It will make the rescue mission in the echoing CHEK building that much harder.

It will make regret in many other places.


142 comments ↓

#1 squidly77 on 11.21.09 at 12:36 am

Edmontonians better buy now

or as realtors say, be priced out forever

what a joke !

#2 palebird on 11.21.09 at 12:46 am

You are spot on Garth..people are getting extremely concerned and nervous because everybody with a modicum of common sense knows this is all smoke and mirrors..I just came back from Dubai and everyone I talked to was very nervous, waiting for the “recovery”..but it is not happening..Dubai air show was a complete blow out, nobody wants to spend money. The US is in a very vulnerable position and we are just waiting for the trigger point to begin the next ride which will be very hairy indeed.

#3 vic on 11.21.09 at 1:08 am

Garth. Do you have a timeline as to when you
think this second recessionary plunge will happen?

HOw many months away?

#4 Popeye The Sailor Man on 11.21.09 at 1:17 am

we decided to move from Vancouver Island to Spruce Grove in Aug 08 the new updated kitchen was 9 weeks late, and we were going to list in Sept 1st but listed Nov 6th, sold after price reductions for much less, “get ahead of the curve down, or follow it down farther later and end up selling for less” not bad advice at the time, but the rules changed interest rates dropped fast, the bubble was patched.

I read this blog daily informed my wife what was going on so we waited for the shoe to drop, talk of a faux spring and better prices in the fall gave us hope. We rented a small house with a fence for our dog and kids, over paying but it was the only thing we could get with a dog. Now I think the drop maybe slower than we first thought, and we don’t want to wait for 2-5 years. So we looked at houses from June to October and was really picky.

Now we found one a 2005 2 story house, 2100sf+ unfinished basement, larger lot, will fit my truck and van in the garage and on a quite cul-de-sac.

It is 4.3X Avg family earnings for spruce grove @430,000 we are putting 50% down, 112,000 fixed @4% (600/month) and a 100,000 HELOC @ P+1. ($185 I only/month) Total payment ($785) is half of the rent for us. and we can pay off the HELOC as we get extra cash.

I’m 40 We are a single income family ($72,000+OT) with 2 special needs kids aged 5 and 1.5. We are aware that things may(will) drop, but we hope not to much. We will be OK, but worry for others.

My hope is it deflates slowly so those of us that had to buy in this crazy time will have time to adjust, and those of you that can wait get in at a price you find reasonable. Part of me hopes prices drop a bit then stabilize or stagnate for a bit because I have lots of nieces and nephews just finishing high school and some just finishing university, and they will need to buy some thing in the coming years, Housing should be affordable either rent or a mortgage and they shouldn’t have to pay for the baby boomers retirement. Yes mom that means you!

#5 Calgary_rip_off on 11.21.09 at 1:30 am

Garth,

That’s typical of Vancouver Island, to run your own business. That’s pretty much the only way, cause there arent many jobs. A lot of the workers up at the Pulp and Paper mill in Nanaimo, Harmac, had to buy the place out to keep their jobs. Again, very very scary there economically unless you are retired. Expect as a job seeker that being there will hone your interview skills, like nowhere else in the world. You have 30 seconds to make an impression-otherwise the door closes. Living there honed my impression skills to a razor edge. It also enhanced my work ethic. That being said, Vancouver Island is a paradox. Many many people work very very hard there, and many many people are whack jobs. I would have stayed despite the fact that its very scary there-savage village idiot mentality-I hope folks keep this in mind if they are from somewhere else and decide to buy property there. If you arent from there, you may feel like a normal person in some horror movie, surrounded by zombies. Victoria is more normal than upisland, which is primarily composed of mills and Hells Angels.

There probably wont be much effect on Vancouver Island with the things you mention about bubbles on the Island cause people tend to view it as some crazy paradise there, as a person who has lived there I would advise against that view, and cause the people there are a bit odd. Many are self starters, and the others are stoned, or homeless. So they’ll survive if it all goes to hell in a handbasket cause they dont have much to lose.

In Calgary however, the economic work situation is more typical so if the bubble implodes prairie life will become more fun again. Normal people will actually be able to live better with their families and pay their bills without going hungry. Its too bad in this province that the government doesnt do more to help out the poor. A NDP party influence would do a lot here to help.

#6 West Coast on 11.21.09 at 1:40 am

OK. This all seems very sensible but then – why would a rational government choose to charge into this fiasco? Is there a better option you could suggest?

What is the motivation to have people that cannot afford to buy homes given mortgages that will result in inevitable bankruptcies??

#7 Peter Pan on 11.21.09 at 1:41 am

And this is exactly why I’m looking to get the hell out of Vancouver and move to the US… Why should I stay here and pay exorbitant RE prices when I can move to Oregon, make more money with my qualifications, enjoy a better climate, pay less taxes and buy a beautiful home for 500K? Vancouverites, you can keep your stupid real estate… I’m leaving ASAP…

#8 rob aitken on 11.21.09 at 2:15 am

Garth-
Do you ever sleep?
Thanks for the excellent and frequent overview of your insights. Much appreciated!
Have a great weekend-
Rob

#9 ralph on 11.21.09 at 2:44 am

Are those bars I see on the windows for that house in Compton, California? The rottweilers must be guarding in the back. Is membership to the local Cripps included?

#10 Nostradamus jr. on 11.21.09 at 2:48 am

There is a reason Vancouver has such elevated RE prices.

…….Vancouver is becoming the new Centre of the Earth….and Torontonians have great difficulty acknowledging this fact.

Montreal once had the same problem.

Nostradamus jr

#11 AxeHead on 11.21.09 at 2:53 am

Uh…I don’t know what realtors in other parts of the country are smoking but here in Alberta NOTHING is moving over 350k but there’s lots of activity under this watermark. Retail sales are 1/2 of what they should be and the unemployment lines are hugemongous. Garth, you think these sales numbers are propoganda…I just don’t see the evidence around here.

#12 Ghost of Tom Joad on 11.21.09 at 2:56 am

I worked for a high tech Newbridge affiliate as programmer in Ontario back in 1990s and early 2000s. JDS Uniphase, Nortel, Alcatel and all the rest started moving all of our jobs to India and China. I saw first hand that no job is safe with globalization … we can never compete with third world labor without having trade barriers.

After 9/11, the acceleration of hi-tech job loss began. Look two towers down and still no Freedom Tower in New York. Meanwhile, how many “Manhattan” type cities were created in China?

China is starting to look like super-power America of 1950’s and the West is starting to look like communist Russia of 1980s. Things are falling apart very quickly now.

Free trade and globalization meant we cannot compete. It has weakened the West and moved the wealth to Asia and elsewhere. There is a plan to break America and the West.

Surprised – I’m not. It’s all part of the evil plan of the New World Order.

Garth makes a good point in this article and that the housing bubble here in Canada is going to be a disaster — just like in US. There are no jobs being created. In a short period of time, things could get very bad.

Listen and learn from the great Alex Jones: http://www.infowars.com

#13 TJ on 11.21.09 at 3:08 am

One good ‘Black Swan’ and we will all be lining up to buy food.
I am concerned that more and more people are going to be skinned and the sober ones will get the bill.

I think I’ll just hope my marmot keeps running the wheel and the power for my Mac, and keep stocking up on RTE’s and fuel oil.

#14 Jane54 on 11.21.09 at 4:47 am

Dogs and their master on this column (which I read every morning) do keep lumping a supposed collaspe in RE here in Britain with the horror of the USA. Guys it ain’t true, at least in parts with good employment. True that these comments are not valid for places like North Wales, where speculators brought houses without local jobs to support values.

We live on the South Coast and took a 17% haircut from Spring 2008 to Spring 2009 but since then it has been a very well ordered and balanced market which is slowly and sensibly recovering, very few sellers but very few buyers. English don’t tend to move on a dime anyway.

Our own home topped out at about £325,000 18 months ago but we have recently listed it at £318,000 and it sold quickly for £310,000 – so not bad at all.
My daughter lives in London (not Ontario, the real one)and her home was taken off the market a year ago at £375,000 and has just been valued at £420,00, the pre-drop rate so is going back on.

Yes some undesirable parts of the country are still down but overall we seem to be enjoying a slow return to a balanced market. Probably helped by the fact that building huge housing estates on greenfield sites is a no-no here, so supply is naturally restricted. We are a smallish island.

And yes we both paid 1.5% standard RE commission as the two huge websites here which advertise listings from the world to the world are private businesses and take both realtor and private listings. No MLS. Check out http://www.rightmove.co.uk or http://www.primelocation.co.uk.

So please don’t refer to the overall British market in the same breath as Florida.

I do so love this blog.

#15 Herb on 11.21.09 at 6:50 am

If the old stockmarket adage that, if it’s in the news, it’s already too late, still works, we are in trouble indeed.

Here is the CBC’s “The National” on the housing “horror show” in the States (05:21 time mark), followed closely by what’s happening to the stimulus on both sides of the border (08:02 time mark):

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/ID=1337854424

So Obamanomics turns out to be Reaganomics with fewer facial wrinkles. What was fed the financial and corporate elites is being retained and not trickling down. What a surprise! And again it had be sucked out of lower pockets first, this time in the form of bailouts to be financed by actual taxpayers.

Did none of the geniuses in finance, economics and government consider that, if you starve the goose that lays the golden eggs, the consumer who buys what the corporate sector sells, it/he can’t “produce” the consumption that keeps the economy going?

#16 miketheengineer on 11.21.09 at 7:01 am

Garth:

More evidence that we are headed for the greatest depression ever. Lets get this bad boy started, cause the sooner we start, the sooner it will be over.

#17 David Bakody on 11.21.09 at 7:16 am

Every now and then pollsters ask people who they trust least …. Politicians #1, followed by the Media #2 and then Bankers and other financial people which includes Real Estate agents. “EVERY TIME IT’S THE DAM SAME”

So read this again ladies gentlemen wrt to Real Estate!

The media says this is good news. Bank economists are thrilled. The feds will point to increased housing activity as proof of an economic renaissance.

ONCE MORE..

The media says this is good news. Bank economists are thrilled. The feds will point to increased housing activity as proof of an economic renaissance.

Are the lights on yet?

Last Time.

The media says this is good news. Bank economists are thrilled. The feds will point to increased housing activity as proof of an economic renaissance.

Thanks Garth, in advance for the few that will get it and be saved and most of all save their families.

PS: Mr’s Harper and Flaherty are running the money printing presses 24/7 so down on your knees and Santa will bring you a big blue check with colourful big “C” on it for Christmas.

To be paid for by 32 million plus people some not even born yet, yes not even born yet!

#18 mooncake on 11.21.09 at 7:40 am

Lets buy, buy, buy- I see bunch of Nicholas Cage wannabes out there. The next decade will be painful period for us.

#19 Repatriated Expat on 11.21.09 at 7:42 am

Anyone still following the MSM on housing anymore? It is getting pretty ridiculous.

Quotes compliments of Toronto’s hot property from yesterday’s show and last weeks show:

-good time to buy
-good time to sell
-when in a bidding war, ignore the sticker price and rely on your real estate agent to suggest a bid price
-house prices don’t matter anymore
-if you bid 100k over the asking price, it only costs you $300 or $400 more (per month, on top of a normal mortgage, on top of all other costs …)

Yesterday’s show won’t be posted for another week.

http://www.cp24.com/servlet/HTMLTemplate?tf=ctvlocal/hub/hub.html&cf=ctvlocal/cp24.cfg&hub=CP24Hotproperty

#20 SaraBeth on 11.21.09 at 8:08 am

Article from the Hamilton Spectator just this last Wednesday…

“Real Estate Boost Expected in ’10 – Home building, sales and prices all set to rise next year: CMHC”

http://www.thespec.com/article/674716

*****

With an unemployment rate of 8.4 (And I suspect it is much higher as benefits run out and people have given up looking for work) and our food banks are regularly running out of food…

Just who is it that is going to be paying upwards of $300,000 for a house when they cannot put food on their table?

#21 WillsDad on 11.21.09 at 8:30 am

I’ll never get this “buy now or be priced out forever” idea.

I’d say if you’re buying with 5% down, CMHC financing, 35 year mortgage, you already are priced out. You’re renting money, and the house.

#22 The Great Gazoo on 11.21.09 at 9:05 am

I tracked two half million $ bungalows in Etobicoke, two offers fell through as it was conditional on financing?

Does that mean people were going to spend half a million and they can’t even get the financing approved in current day lending conditions?!? People are insane… it will be just as bad here as in the US..

#23 Gonzo on 11.21.09 at 9:13 am

Bang on Garth. All asset classes are now moving together: gold, oil, stocks, including our dollar and our real estate… and opposite to the U.S. dollar. (Also interesting is that the one asset class in the U.S. which is not rising is RE). Roubini thinks this massive asset bubble is in large part secondary to the U.S. dollar carry trade (investors borrowing cheap U.S. money to buy risky assets). Prechter thinks its just a display of classic Elliot Wave patterns and herding behaviour. Whatever. Both agree that when this bursts it will be the worst asset crash in history. Along with this, the U.S. dollar will make a major run up.
In my opinion this will be the trigger for a major Canadian RE crash. How many buyers will be left after all investments lose >50%, not to mention business collapsing etc…Over-leveraged owners will also be forced to sell. This is what happened to our RE market last fall (drop was during the major stock run). I think this be a bigger and faster trigger than any HST/rising interest rates/etc…
I would be getting everything into the safest possible investments, buy some U.S. dollar. What gold does should be interesting – could it decouple from the other asset classes/U.S. dollar? I’m not sure.

#24 Evangeline on 11.21.09 at 9:14 am

((What is the motivation to have people that cannot afford to buy homes given mortgages that will result in inevitable bankruptcies??))

because mortgages can be packaged into investment vehicles called mortgage backed securities and they make more money off the derivatives than they do off the mortgages

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/hoficlincl/mobase/mobase_001.cfm

((What is MBS?
The NHA Mortgage-Backed Securities Program (NHA MBS) was designed by the Government of Canada to help you, the Investor, take advantage of the opportunities available to make a secure investment in Canadian residential mortgages.

Through NHA MBS, the Government of Canada provides you with the opportunity to invest in housing. This, in turn, will benefit Canadians as well as help secure your own future financial well-being.))

doing this in the U.S.A. is what caused the financial crisis

#25 Downsized and Delighted on 11.21.09 at 9:59 am

Small tv stations are the canary? Maybe the canary for a changing business model for advertisers. The internet is taking over and local tv can’t afford to carry the little stations any more. Good luck to the $2 investors – they are going to need it. Good luck also to Blockbusters, but how can we feel sorry for them after they wiped out all the small video stores?

This “canary” is simply choking on the new competition, not the “economy”.

#26 Grey on 11.21.09 at 10:08 am

#20 SaraBeth

I couldn’t agree more. I’ve been saying that for a long time now after seeing former colleagues and friends who are now interviewing (if they’re lucky) for Administrative Assistant positions after being Directors of Marketing. It’s really astonishing to me that this blog is one of the very few that actually has the guts to bring this to light.

It’s also the reason that while we are house hunting (more like window shopping) because we actually need a bigger space for our small but growing family, we just absolutely refuse to buy right now. Every open house or space we go see, turns into a zoo. The held back offers. The strategic price point ensuring emotional bidding wars. Don’t get me wrong, I realize this is all just par for the course in terms of how homes are marketed and sold.

But what’s frustrating to me is the underhandedness of the entire experience as it’s become these days.

Buying your first home should be a big turning point in your life because it’s probably the biggest purchase you will make. It should be a moment of pride.
Unfortunately in this market (in Toronto) it feels very much like it’s become like high school bullying to me where you feel like crap before you even put in an offer.

It’s as if you’re in the school courtyard and you want to play on the playground and standing before you are the Teachers Assistant and Class Bully (do your own choosing as to who gets what title from the agent and seller there). And you basically have to play a game of “How high can you jump?” and then they ask you “What do I get from you so that you can pass by me to get to the playground?” Then they go through everything you offer (in this case your hard earned money vs the lunch treats your mom packed for the day) and dismiss those that they feel like, and you can’t even see what others are offering them to get to the playground.

I realize that’s what a sellers market is. But there’s something, I just can’t place my finger on, that’s so not right about what’s happening behind closed doors at these bidding wars and open houses these days. It’s become an entitlement to the seller/realtor to have these buyers fawn all over them. Last time I checked, I have self respect and my money has been hard earned and I’ll be damned if someone thinks they can woo it out of me over a scented potpourri bowl with mood lighting over the dining room table because I still see the agent cards on there too!

That’s why we are refusing to participate in this madness. I can sense a lot of buyers are also saying “Ok enough. We are not going to kiss ass to someone against 30 other blind offers for a house that should be grateful to have anyone here looking at their property to begin with”. And I can see a lot more prospective buyers deciding that they’d rather wait till interest rates go up and have an easier time buying a property than what is going on right now. And this is solely to avoid the bidding wars and the amount of people out there looking, because we all know a good 75% of them should not be looking and are only there because they see 2.5% variable.

It goes back to the playground again. If everyone would realize that the tire swings are filled with water, the foundation of the monkey bars is being held together by some loose screws and the slide is covered in ice as it gets colder on the ground, they could turn around and see there’s an entire basketball court behind them where their friends are welcoming them to play instead.

So to me, regardless of whether or not interest rates go up, the bigger issue in this house buying frenzy is the UI rate and taxes that are piling onto our cost of living. Because when that secure job you thought you had is gone, when the insurance rates go up, when taxes on your hydro bill for your 2000sq foot home go up, when you get unexpected bills for repair the furnace that you were told was just replaced and finally when your UI benefits run out, the last place you’re going to want to be is on that playground.

#27 $fromA$ia on 11.21.09 at 10:17 am

Asset bubbles???

Garth, I can borrow $500,000 to buy a house. I can’t borrow the same to buy other assets. How can other assets bubble neerly as much as the housing market?

People are buying stocks because they are looking for better returns than the banks.

People are buying homes because they are looking for a safe stable investment.

People do not want to hold cash because the Government is making more.

$Money$ is chasing everything but the bank, because the Government is making more of it.

The Government/home owners, through inflation, will be able to pay of their debts faster.

I agree with the possibility that may see a second leg down. I think the markets/economy are too capitalised with cash to make a second leg down very big.

Now if you want to talk about stagflation and an inflationary depression, I’m all ears.

Have any readers here noticed that the TSX staggers when it hits 11,500 and drops to 10,600 before hitting 11,500 ish? It’s been doing this for at least 4 months now. Notice that we’ve gone past last years anniversary crash?

When the housing market turns down I think their will be a race for investing in the stock market.

Just a hunch, and yes there may be a second Garth leg down. ;P

#28 $fromA$ia on 11.21.09 at 10:19 am

Some more food for thought.

http://www.europac.net/videoblog.asp?a=watch

#29 Keith in Calgary on 11.21.09 at 10:28 am

We are not experiencing a “W shaped” recession………..

We are in the second hump of an “M shaped” depression………

#30 Evangeline on 11.21.09 at 10:28 am

THE GLOBAL CREDIT CRISIS: HOW IT HAPPENED
PUBLISHED BY SCOTIAFUNDS

http://www.scotiabank.com/cda/content/0,1608,CID12415_LIDen,00.html

(excerpts)

>To lessen the effects of the bursting of the technology ‘bubble’ in 2000, interest rates in the U.S. were progressively lowered. This made mortgages more affordable, fuelling the growth of the housing market and raising prices.

>As demand for mortgages rose, their quality declined as those companies offering mortgages sold them to banks, which in turn bundled and re-sold them to other financial institutions globally as ‘mortgage-backed securities’, which are bonds backed by the mortgage payments of homeowners.

>Subsequently, between 2004 and 2006, when U.S. interest rates rose from 1% to 5.35%, the U.S. housing market began to suffer, with prices falling and a rise in homeowners – especially those with sub-prime loans – defaulting on their mortgages, making the mortgage-backed securities worthless.

>By mid-2007, the outfall of the sub-prime mortgage problem had begun to spread, with institutions in the U.S and other countries who had invested in the mortgage-backed securities suffering losses, and being reluctant to take on further debt of this kind. The credit markets began to freeze as banks become reluctant to lend to each other, not knowing how many bad loans could be on their competitors’ books.

#31 Evangeline on 11.21.09 at 10:40 am

Canada’s (Sub-Prime) Mortgage Market – Causing Concern for the Bank of Canada?
Posted: November 19, 2009, 3:36 AM by AJ Sull

((There may be yet another concern that might be leaving the Bank of Canada in a quandary. It seems that Canada is gaining a new reputation as perhaps the “new kid on the block” when it comes to the excesses of overheated real estate markets. The real estate revival is being fueled by a wave of mortgage financing that some consider to be sub- prime in quality. In part, this is starting to resemble what we have seen in the US. While it is highly unlikely that we would see anything remotely resembling the experience of the US banks, the story does have some similarities that are disconcerting.

Part of the responsibility for this trend is being put at the feet of the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC). This government entity is considered by critics to be the Canadian equivalent of Fannie Mae in that its practices are thought to be provoking a rise in lending that could spell trouble for the Canadian real estate market in the future))

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpmagazinedaily/archive/2009/11/19/canada-s-sub-prime-market-causing-concern-for-the-bank-of-canada.aspx

#32 Nostradamus jr. on 11.21.09 at 10:51 am

The sooner Eastern Canadians acknowledge the truth the sooner they stop having nightmares.

…Things happen in threes, 1/ Montreal, 2/Toronto now 3/Vancouver.

…Canada’s new “Centre of the Earth” is Vancouver!

Torontonians are the current arrogant snobs who need to critique the West Coast to make themselves feel better.

…Thin is in, fats where its at and Vancouver is the new Financial, Trade, Culture and Leisure Capital….the North Shore, (North & West Vancouver) is the safest, elitist privately gated community and 1 hour to Whistler.

Smoke that in your winter frozen, smog filled Toronto Pipe.

Nostradamus jr.

#33 dd on 11.21.09 at 11:05 am

“The media says this is good news. Bank economists are thrilled. The feds will point to increased housing activity as proof of an economic renaissance.”

When is increasing house prices of 20% good news? Maybe for the debt holder and sellers.

#34 Keith in Calgary on 11.21.09 at 11:08 am

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+housing+market+surging/2249137/story.html#PostComment

Look who the Calgary Herald’s biggest paid shill for the REIC put in his article today…….little Nikki Harrison from REMAX…….this time she is dressed like a Buddhist monk as opposed to a teenage schoolgirl.

ROFL !!!

#35 DaBull on 11.21.09 at 11:10 am

Garth

My point: Media outlets are the new canaries in our economic coalmines.

So what about the internet? Isn’t this the new media? Your using it as your new advertising portal now aren’t you? Well instead of TV or radio anyway, which have become to expensive. Plus the airwaves have become saturated with content which you can now download from the internet at your leisure.

Local media has been dying a slow death for many years because they lost their focus years ago, which strangely enough was local media and content. They thought that to stay in business they had to compete against all the new content and new stations out there by providing what they were. Problem was that this content is very expense. So this type of competition just lead to increased costs which in turn increased the costs of advertising for the local merchants. So most local merchants were now priced out of the market and when a local merchant can’t afford to advertise on their local station things have to change and they did, which was the closing of local stations.

I hope those employees that bought the Global station realise this and put more of their efforts and resources to remaining local and not try to be the superstation they can’t afford to be. They will have a better chance at survival if they do and will be less likely to fail like there predecessor did.

#36 Boombust on 11.21.09 at 11:13 am

Yes, CHEK was a Global affiliate.

It’s interesting then, that the Vancouver Global TV News is always a pumpin’ and a pimpin’ the economy in general, and real estate in particular.

Ad revenue’s just fine here, folks!

For “perspective” and “analysis”, they continually trot out the likes of Michael Campbell, Ozzie Jurrock, Cameron Muir and Michael Levy…

All followed by a Remax commercial.

#37 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.21.09 at 11:15 am

The economy is like the Catholic Church! Outdated, unworkable, and dieing a slow and painful death.

The cure is a Jubilee wherein all debt is extinguished, new rules are put in place to keep true balance for the good of people, not merely elite individuals or ‘institutions’. It will not happen because such would require leadership of a Divine Nature and there is no one possessing such attributes.

Therefore, each person must make a personal choice as to which path they are going to take.

Path One: Follow the status quo of a false and malevolent religion. Yes, the economic theory in play is grossly malevolent and a religion which means to BIND, i.e., obligate. Alan Greenspan and his elite cohorts vapourized $27 Trillion in investment dollars. Thts clearly illustrates that their economic theory is nothing more than a theory and a very bad one as well. Real money cannot be vapourized, only pseudo money based on paper wealth (electronic actually) can be made to instantly disappear based on emotional whim by ‘Traders’ (aka, Gamblers).

Path Two: Engage the brain you were given and start helping out your neighbors, friends, and family not with money but by combining resources to achieve independence. Call it by what ever name you wish, but it is the only real solution.

Eliminate the Middleman, the non-productive bottom feeders and Git ‘er Done. Then there will be a new market developed that has eliminated the scoundrels who have free-loaded for decades. They, and they alone are the real Welfare Bums who have sucked hard working and honest people dry.

Neither business or government needs supervisors supervising supervisors in endless levels of unproductive wasteful manglement. Reject the MSM’s endless blathering about what is real and OPEN YOUR EYES. become active in communicating with your MP’s and MPP’s. Tell the price gougers ‘TOO MUCH!’ and get out of their groove.

As to Vancouver’s RE market, it is a shining example of how people choose to live in an unrealistic, mass hypnosis based on greed, FUD, and denial of reality. Toronto is no better.

Try to find the real value of yourself as a person instead of trusting in ‘things’ that reflect your own stupidity!

Have a nice day in LaLa Land!

#38 dd on 11.21.09 at 11:15 am

“In fact, CHEK is the only television operation on Vancouver Island”

Actually there is CHEK and A channel in Victoria. Both are on life support. A town that really cannot support one TV station.

#39 Ken on 11.21.09 at 11:18 am

Is our bank of canada really independent from the dictates of the federal political party in power at the present time,or are they in cahoots with one another?

#40 Alberta Ed on 11.21.09 at 11:24 am

WHOOP-WHOOP-WHOOP… Mario at the Herald and Nikki Harrison, realtor extraordinaire, are at it again as the Calgary housing market surges. Buy now! Or be priced out forever!

#41 Dan on 11.21.09 at 11:57 am

Flood forces Vancouver Island evacuations

http://news.ca.msn.com/top-stories/cbc-article.aspx?cp-documentid=22671370

vancouver RE set to crash. LOL I predicted this 500 years ago Nostradamus jr

#42 greyhound on 11.21.09 at 12:01 pm

For some places in the States like North Dakota, RE prices probably have stopped falling and may actually be rising.
Bubble areas like Nevada and Florida and California have way too many mortgage resets and recasts still coming in 2010 and 2011, and will probably continue to drift lower. It’s still too early for that beach-front winter cottage.

#43 shane on 11.21.09 at 12:43 pm

Our chart this week is 25 years of monthly closes of our own TSX Composite stock index plotted above the average Greater Toronto resale home price. The longer term trend for both asset classes is upward with the TSX returning about 10 per cent annualized and the single family home returning about 5 per cent annualized.

The higher return of stocks is accompanied by higher volatility and lower return of the home is accompanied by tax-free gains and shelter.

All and all, both are worth the risk, so don’t be a mercantile mollusc.

Bill Carrigan, CIM, is an independent stock-market analyst. He can be reached at: [email protected]

Also see:

#44 X on 11.21.09 at 12:43 pm

#21 Wills Dad – agreed.

Had a pt in this morning, who is looking to buy next year…not sure on new or resale…but he did mention that alot of the builders are pushing June closings, to avoid the HST for the homebuyer…and obviously with no recourse for the buyer if the closing date is pushed back.

#45 Chaostrology on 11.21.09 at 12:51 pm

Thank-you David Bakody.

When the crapola hits the fan the politicians, the bankers, the govt deputy ministers, the BoC, CHMC, the PMO, the real estate dream weavers and mostly the dumb asses that have the huge mortgages are all going to say the same thing….

WE DIDN’T SEE IT COMING!!!!!!!!!!!!

Break-out the Helly-Hansens, it won’t be safe to go anywhere in this predictable crap blizzard. Oh yeah, make sure that you have a shovel close by to dig an air hole.

On a lesser note.

Thank-you Steven Colbert.

“Syrup sucking ICEHOLES”…lmao,ha ha ha!

#46 Vancouver_bear on 11.21.09 at 1:15 pm

#10 Nostradamus jr. on 11.21.09 at 2:48 am

Man get serious, you are childlishly stupid or a just stupid child….?

#47 Men With Hats on 11.21.09 at 1:19 pm

Overcome by a wave of nostalgia .
As a young man I used to attend the wrestling matches at CHEK teevee on Saturday afternoon .
Thee I was introduced to the gentlmen wrstlers of the day like Sweet Daddy Seekey, Whipper Billy Watson, Bruno Sammartino,The Screaming Sheik et al .
Thanks for the memories .

#48 CM on 11.21.09 at 1:28 pm

Good writeup by Kevin over at EHB about the bubble and how we got where we are…

http://edmontonhousingbust.blogspot.com/2009/11/whos-to-blame.html

#49 Vancouver_bear on 11.21.09 at 1:35 pm

#10 Nostradamus jr. on 11.21.09 at 2:48 am

Man get serious, you are childlishly stupid or just a stupid child….?

#50 Calgary_rip_off on 11.21.09 at 1:38 pm

Garth:

Here’s the link to the latest “buy now or never in the Calgary Herald”. There’s a photo too of Nikki Harrasin on the page too. She looks stressed out.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+housing+market+surging/2249137/story.html

#51 rory on 11.21.09 at 1:43 pm

#110 skier from yesterday…

East-west geography is troubling for both us and the US. Never made sense due to the logistics mentioned by Skier. North-South links is where it’s at.

The Pacific Northwest as a separate entity does make economic sense…sorry but it is what it is ….one could argue that a person in Vancouver has more in common with someone in Seattle than someone east of Manitoba or Ontario…not saying we should break up Canada and the USofA …I am just saying that change is sometimes a good thing when the eventual crap hits the fan and this may be one way to shake-up the status quo.

Yeah, yeah we do have our differences that would be hard to resolve like healthcare, tort law (sue anything that breathes (or doesn’t) Americans), and 2 federal gov’ts that would see their power evaporate.

Say hello to OR, WA, BC, AB and anyone else that wants to join like ID, MT, and SK.

Need Nord Jr. to figure out where the new capital should be… it will be painful for him not to choose West Van.

#52 Jonas on 11.21.09 at 1:51 pm

Can West is done for and deservedly so. You can’t be the flyer rag for a corrupt group like the CREA and expect any kind of sustainability or support from your main source of advertising when things go bad. Opening up MLS is the next step. CREA and MLS is a completely unfair monopoly with too much influence over the sheeple. How anyone could take advice from someone with a 5 week certificate that has a $20,000 carrot dangling in front of them in a completely unregulated industry with little to no recourse from any agency government or otherwise is well beyond me.

That said, Garth, I am not sure where you are getting your lower mainland info from, all I am seeing is price drops and sales below asking in the last several weeks. I have a friend in TD mortgage and another in BMO who both say someone turned off the tap and this is going to get really ugly. So many stupid people are so overextended its beyond ridiculous. The sad part is they were talked into it by corrupt agents, agencies, the media, CREA, CMHC and ultimately the goverment.

Carney says that he expects Canadians to be responsible and realize that low rates are not forever and to be prudent. Who the f%&k is he kidding? The buying public are like a bunch of strung out crack debt addicts that can’t see 5 feet in front of them let alone 7 or 8 months from now when the rates start to rise. That was truly one of the dumbest comments I have ever hear a central banker make. Especially when you consider HE IS THE CRACK DEALER.

#53 betamax on 11.21.09 at 1:57 pm

“If you arent from there, you may feel like a normal person in some horror movie, surrounded by zombies. Victoria is more normal than upisland, which is primarily composed of mills and Hells Angels.”

LOL. I lived there for years and I know what you mean. Actually there are a lot of nice folks there (my parents still live up-island), but they certainly have more than their share of mill towns and malcontent losers. I remember an RCMP officer telling me that all the low-lifes of Canada drift westward until they hit the island, then stop.

But island house values have primarily risen due to a as-the-crow-flies perception of proximity to bubblicious Vancouver, despite the water in between. (They also believe that Olympic visitors will come to the island in droves. LOL.) The lack of industry means that when the housing downturn comes, the island will fall into an economic black hole, just like in the early ’80s.

#54 Jeannie on 11.21.09 at 2:12 pm

Have a look at what Ian Gordon, Vancouver tracker of the Kondratieff Wave has to say about what we can expect in the near future.
According to Mr.Gordon we have entered into the ‘Winter’period of this cyclical wave, and it’s demonstrating the same wave pattern as the Great Depression of the 30’s.
Sorry, I don’t know how to post the website, try googling You Tube, “Winter comes Early” to watch the video. Scary stuff.

#55 Schroedinger's Bull on 11.21.09 at 2:18 pm

Lives have appreciated more than 150% since 2005, and are far more expensive than their 30 year trend. Therefore I’m waiting until they correct before I get one.

#56 Internal Exile on 11.21.09 at 3:23 pm

It seems like Canada is just a year or two behind the States. America has already ripped off the bandage and is peering into the mess underneath. Canada is still in denial. I’m always struck by how little REAL economic information appears in any Canadian paper – guess they don’t want to harsh everyone’s mellow.

I read yesterday (in an American paper, of course) that the FDIC is preparing for another 100 BILLION in bank failures over the next four years. They’re so freaked they’re going to make everyone (who’s still solvent) pay four years worth of fees UP FRONT.

The bank failures so far are at (apx) 120+ and counting – I think a San Fran bank failed last week.

But you’d never know from reading the Globe or Post of (God forbid) the Vancouver Sun.

Party on!

#57 Sid on 11.21.09 at 3:30 pm

#12- Jobs are moving east becasue people there work harder, get paid less, save instead of go into debt and live simple lives with low levels of consumption. We in the west have encouraged this by buying cheap imported goods instead of supporting local business. Tariffs or ending globalization will not end this problem. The only way to stay afloat is to become competitive again, which means a drastic change to everyone’s lifestyle.

#58 NUR on 11.21.09 at 3:52 pm

How can people get such a big mortgage/ loan? I am self employed with reasonable income and had a hard time getting approved for a $420K.

#59 Boombust on 11.21.09 at 4:13 pm

“That said, Garth, I am not sure where you are getting your lower mainland info from, all I am seeing is price drops and sales below asking in the last several weeks. I have a friend in TD mortgage and another in BMO who both say someone turned off the tap and this is going to get really ugly.” -Jonas

I said the very same thing just yesterday.

#60 Dan on 11.21.09 at 4:28 pm

Struggling companies hit a wallBusiness insolvency jumps, but consumer filings surge even more casting pall on recovery

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/728867–struggling-companies-hit-a-wall

The housing BUBBLE is full of hot air (cheap money) and will POP JUST like the US. The plan is to BANKRUPT Canadians JUST like ALL the BANKRUPT Americans and then a few years when Canadians lost their jobs and houses will come up with a PLAN to save Canada, US and mexico by SPP. Homes in Canada will fall 50% or more. POP……..What was that?

#61 GregW., Oakville on 11.21.09 at 4:30 pm

Hi Garth, FYI (Climate change and energy issue links)

failure in Copenhagen would be disastrous for the world.

This Week on Quirks & Quarks – November 21:
(you can down load the show)

Countdown to Copenhagen

As the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen approaches, it is looking less and less likely that the participants will reach a new international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. And this week’s summit meeting between the presidents of the United States and China didn’t bring that agreement any closer. But according to Dr. Tim Flannery, one of the world’s leading climate specialists, the consequences of failure in Copenhagen would be disastrous for the world.

Plus – babies cry with a foreign accent, and a new cache of fossils reveals a world of strange prehistoric animals.
http://www.cbc.ca/quirks/

And
Artical;

Biofuels Aren’t Really Green

Cultivate inorganic energy sources instead of biofuels
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/biofuels-arent-really-green

#62 casual observer on 11.21.09 at 4:40 pm

Recently, a poll question was asked on BNN about whether we have a Real Estate bubble in Canada. I responded, but had part of my e-mail edited.

The part that was edited was in regards to zero down payment mortgages. Many pundits on TV (including one that they were interviewing during the segment) always talk about how we in Canada don’t have zero down mortgages in Canada anymore, therefor we are different than the US.

I said that in fact we do. If you go into one of the big five banks, and take their posted rate on a mortgage, they will GIVE you the 5% down payment. CMHC is happy because the 5% DP has been paid, the bank is happy because they get a higher rate on the mortgage, and the buyers are happy because THEY DIDN’T HAVE TO COME UP WITH A DOWN PAYMENT. And it’s all legal and above board.

CMHC just charges a premium for a “NON-STANDARD Down Payment”. Now if that’s not a zero down mortgage, I don’t know what is. I know people that have done this within the last couple of months, but none of the media seems to want to bring attention to this.

All I keep hearing from them is that the gov’t changed the rules, and that CMHC requires new buyers to have a minimum of 5% down payment. That may be the case, but clearly these rules are useless if the lender gives the borrower the DP. We as taxpayers are on the hook for this because of the CMHC insurance. It’s a joke.

#63 Don Bently on 11.21.09 at 4:44 pm

I have a question.

When is the so-called real estate crash actually going to happen?! Yes, I know it sounds like a stupid question, but consider: Garth has been predicted a crash for nearly 2 years if not more. When the mild slowdown hit last December, he seemed to imply on this blog that ‘It’s here! This is the beginning of the end!’….

If a contrarian spouts doomsday messages every day for years (with no actual prediction of WHEN its going to happen)…….of course at some point he’s going to be correct, because the economy naturally expands and contracts. If I predicted that an asteroid will someday hit the planet, and continued to do so every day for the next 3 billion years….I’d be correct : EVENTUALLY. That doesn’t mean everyone should start praying or building underground shelters, does it?

So can anyone give me a prediction of some kind as to when exactly this correction is going to start? I’m especially concerned about the Toronto CONDO market.

While I love Garth’s contrarian approach, I’ve grown a bit impatient waiting for the real estate bubble to burst (I know, I know – it’s selfish to WANT the bubble to burst just so I can swoop in and buy up property….but selfish I am. There, I said it).

Any advice would be appreciated.

Advice? Don’t dis me then ask for it. Bad strategy. — Garth

#64 kitchener1 on 11.21.09 at 4:56 pm

Garth and the blog dogs.

You should note or at least remeber that sales from Oct 08-Mar-09 were dismal. Very low sales and volume, so any comparsion to those numbers is going to really optimistic guidance going forward.

The problem with real estate in Vancouver/Ontario is that its not the underlining asset (houses) that have risen, rather its the cost to finance the asset that has become cheaper.

When people talk about asset values, we should be looking at comparable economic circumstance.

IE. Back in 2000 the interest rates where approx 7% (if i remeber correctly) housing was cheap compared to today;s pricing. 2009, housing is expensive but the $ is cheap.

I would really love to see what the RE agents or pundits have to say to this question:

If interest rates where are at 7% today, where do you think the average home price would be? And if interest rates would have stayed steady at 7% over the last 9 years, how much would houses have really gone up in value?

#65 vicguy on 11.21.09 at 5:01 pm

#38 dd

“In fact, CHEK is the only television operation on Vancouver Island”

“Actually there is CHEK and A channel in Victoria. Both are on life support. A town that really cannot support one TV station.”

I’m glad I spotted your note — I was about to point out the same thing.

However, the reason CHEK is in trouble, is that they are a really bad television station. Watching their evening news is like watching Ted Mack’s Amateur Hour or listening to Flora Foster Jenkins. On the weekends, there is no 5:00 PM news on A News, so we watch CHEK. Most of the ½ hour is spent laughing out loud, at how bad they are.

Can we laugh at you, too? — Garth

#66 scott_van on 11.21.09 at 5:09 pm

Globe Video: How will the real estate boom end — and how will it affect you?

Garth is predicting as much as a 40% drop in Vancouver prices. How likely?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/lets-talk-investing/how-will-the-real-estate-boom-end—-and-how-will-it-affect-you/article1370250/

#67 Piccaso on 11.21.09 at 5:11 pm

World’s Most Expensive Homes….

Last year, a 40-acre Greenwich, Conn., property with a 21,897-square-foot, 14-bedroom Jacobean manor was listed for $125 million. It was the world’s second most expensive home for sale.

It now sports a $60 million price tag and falls just short of making this year’s list.

It’s no secret sellers across the country are resorting to measures such as price cuts of 20% and higher to move their homes.

What’s new: That group is increasingly including owners of eight- and nine-figure properties.

Last year, investor Marty Zweig pulled the $70 million Pierre Hotel penthouse off the market after it was listed for four years.

Financier Leonard Ross, who had asked $165 million for the Hearst Mansion in Beverly Hills, Calif., de-listed it in September 2008.

A few months later, Prince Bandar of Saudi Arabia removed his $135 million Aspen ski lodge from the ranks of available listings.

This year, “Hillendale,” in Stamford, Conn., fell victim to the depressed housing market. It was listed for $95 million. It’s no longer for sale.

Others, such as the owners of an $85 million Wallace Neff-designed mansion, are leasing their properties until the market picks up.

Such moves, says Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel, are to be expected.

“There was a frenzy that caused the prices of these properties to be astronomical,” he says. “Dramatic discounts are not as much a reflection of the market crashing, but a reflection of a reality.”

While the number of buyers willing to invest in eight- and nine-figure homes has always been slim, a pullback in jumbo loan-financing has shrunk the pool even further. And some with the means to pay cash are waiting to see when the housing market will return to stability.

They may be holding off a while.

“First, the lower end of market started breaking,” says Mike Simonsen, chief executive of Altos Research, a real estate statistics provider. “Then, it was only 12 months ago when the luxury market started to break, and just recently when the ultra-luxury market started to break. It may be years–it may be many years–before that market recovers. For this level, it will be even slower than the luxury market at large.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/108178/worlds-most-expensive-homes.html?mod=realestate-buy

#68 The Gonz on 11.21.09 at 5:18 pm

Garth,

I have followed your blog for months, thank you for offering a contrarian point of view that has helped me get a balanced perspective.

Is there any chance you could become a columnist at the Globe or the Post?

Your points have such big implications that our country cannot afford to ignore.

Another question can you tell me how many people read your blog?

Thanks,
The Gonz

(a) No future in the MSM, dude. (b) No idea. — Garth

#69 Bottoms_Up on 11.21.09 at 5:18 pm

63 Don Bently on 11.21.09 at 4:44 pm
—————————————–
If anyone knew when the crash would occur, they would be gazillionaires.

You gotta be realistic, as Garth has consistently been on his blog, that real estate will drop once interest rates rise. Makes sense.

So, when will rates begin to rise? Well, if you knew that you could be a gazillionaire.

#70 Piccaso on 11.21.09 at 5:54 pm

#63
“So can anyone give me a prediction of some kind as to when exactly this correction is going to start? I’m especially concerned about the Toronto CONDO market.”

I’m in downtown TO right now, coming in from the airport the TO skyline reminded me of Miami. Cranes on top of highrise condo’s at various stages as far as the eye could see. We all know what happened to Miami’s
condo glut.

#71 Jmack on 11.21.09 at 5:54 pm

http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/17/news/economy/silverdome_buyer/index.htm

Detroit Silverdome sells for $583K

#72 vreaa on 11.21.09 at 6:05 pm

Recent comments here from Contrarian in Vancouver, betamax, Peter Pan, and casual observer have been archived at VREAA.

Any plans to speak in Vancouver, Garth?

I’m planning civil disobedience for February. — Garth

#73 Opportunity on 11.21.09 at 6:17 pm

Two weeks and my condo sale is final. Money, money , money. Sold most of my stock and put it into cash. Money, money, money.

Renting an apartment that is half the price I was paying for my mortgage and maintenance. Future money, money, money.

Let the bubble burst. I think I’ll go someplace warm for a while, but definitely not the US, and watch the recent home buyers cry.

#74 Andrew on 11.21.09 at 6:24 pm

Wait six months. The average guy on the street figures rates are going up soon, that’s why there’s such a panic to buy right now. The average guy doesn’t think about declining value offsetting the increased rates- real estate never goes down, eh?

In the end, it doesn’t matter whether rates rise or not. This demand will exhaust itself by the New Year. Much like Cash-For-Clunkers, it’s eating future demand and once the frantic panic buying dies down, there will simply be nobody left that wants to buy. The interest-rate paranoids fought their bidding wars in October, the prudent realize this looks like a bubble and are waiting to see what the market does. Without demand it flatlines, at best, or begins its ponderous decline.

Eventually demand will begin to pick up again, perhaps next summer… right when rates go up. Never mind HST.

Until then, I sit here, renting. Oh, I don’t gain equity. But wait, I’m saving 500 bucks a month on what it would cost to own this place! Oh, and I have no car either. I had to walk home on Wednesday with the subway closed, but hey, it was a nice evening out anyways. 70% of net income as disposable, anybody?

Global Toronto has the bubble as its lead story tonight. Ha!

..

Gold is clearly in the terminal stages of a bubble as well. I bet it kisses 1200 in December – maybe a bit higher in January or so, then collapses. It’s a matter of weeks now. People are no longer buying it as an inflation hedge they’re buying it for value gains. What with India and all, its value can only go up from here! Sheeple at work.

#75 CalgaryBoy on 11.21.09 at 6:36 pm

I work with someone who’s husband is a real estate agent. She said there was a couple who bid $15, 000 less than the asking price and a real estate agent asked them if they were joking and told them to leave. The nerve of them. Their day will come.

I also get e-mailings from another real estate agent and he compiles a list of places sold and in that same area, there were some sold where the buyer got $15, 000 off the asking price.

I enjoy reading your blog, Garth.

The agent needs to be reported. He or she has a professional duty to present all offers to the vendors. — Garth

#76 ontheshoreline on 11.21.09 at 6:47 pm

Hang on…you don’t know how may people read your

website?seriously?isn’t there tech for that?

like hits?

Who cares? — Garth

#77 ontheshoreline on 11.21.09 at 6:49 pm

read many for may,sorry

#78 45north on 11.21.09 at 7:04 pm

Nostradamus Smoke that in your winter frozen, smog filled Toronto Pipe.
off your meds?

JMack: Silverdome: I was there to see the Silverdome in October. They were selling cars in the foyer. 80000 seats, immense structure. $585000 Soccer stadium! They have my best wishes.

#79 Taxpayer like you on 11.21.09 at 7:12 pm

74 Andrew: Are you saying you are saving 70% of your income, or you have 70% left after rent and any debt re-
payment?

#80 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.21.09 at 7:33 pm

“. . . will be billions in consumer, household and government debt.” — If govts. (leaders) are incapable of running their countries in a reasonable manner, why should their citizens (followers) go against the grain? Shouldn’t they be expected to spend with no thought of what tomorrow brings?

This leads to the following two links– people’s frustration level is rising. Further effects of the economic downturn. — Hot ‘n’ — and — Nasty
——
#51 rory — “North-South links is where it’s at. The Pacific Northwest as a separate entity does make economic sense…sorry but it is what it is ….”

With Nostradamus Jr.’s postings, both of you are right on the money.

Over 40 states are close to bankruptcy, which has led to more local currencies being started (so the US Fed has no control over them, and the Fed is the source of the problem — GET RID OF THE FED, the BoC, etc.!

Their job is to ensure a lot more sheeple become broke a lot more quickly with little or no hope of recovery, then it is easier for the elite to move things around to where they want.

Indeed, the Pacific NW + California, four western provinces, Alaska and the territories would eventually be better off charting our own course. Freedom of choice — just as the west chose to join, the west will choose to leave.

Central and eastern parts are being hit hard already by diminishing and closing mfg. plants. Harper & Co. may well get what they want (division), but not how they expected it.
——
This happened a week or two ago in South America. How is everyone’s infrastructure? — Blackout

#81 rory on 11.21.09 at 7:45 pm

#55 Schroedinger’s Bull …

The closer to the truth a saying, the funnier it seems …two thumbs up.

#82 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.21.09 at 7:54 pm

To follow on from my previous missive, we head back to the Cell-Phone Jurassic Dinosaur Amusement Park Theory . . .

Several men are in the locker room of a golf club. A mobile phone on a bench rings and a man engages the hands free speaker function and begins to talk. Everyone else in the room stops to listen.

MAN: ‘Hello’

WOMAN: ‘Honey, it’s me. Are you at the club?’

‘Yes’

‘I am at the shops now and found this beautiful leather coat. It’s only $2,000. Is it OK if I buy it?’

‘Sure, go ahead if you like it that much.’

‘I also stopped by the Lexus dealership and saw the new models. I saw one I really liked.’

‘How much?’

‘$90,000’

‘OK, but for that price I want it with all the options.’

‘Great! Oh, and one more thing . . . the house I wanted last year is back on the market. They’re asking $980,000’

‘Well, then go ahead and give them an offer of $900,000. They will probably take it. If not, we can go the extra 80 thousand if it’s a really good deal.’

‘OK. I’ll see you later! I love you so much!’

‘Bye! I love you, too.’

The man hangs up. The other men in the locker room are staring at him in astonishment, mouths agape.

He turns and asks,

‘Anyone know who this phone belongs to?’

#83 john m on 11.21.09 at 8:13 pm

We are all the victims of misleading propaganda from our government (and we are paying for it! )….things aren’t good in our economy–in fact they are terrible,every second our country goes deeper in debt…paying the countries obligations with borrowed funds and telling us how much better things are getting as the Governments spending sprees continue…….how can this end well?

#84 ontheshoreline on 11.21.09 at 8:29 pm

well if i i had a webpage I might be slightly curious how many readers I had.
more hits more advertising more money?

I do not accept advertising. This blog is published to generate debate and knowledge, not money. — Garth

#85 TaxHaven on 11.21.09 at 9:08 pm

…but while the music is playing we have to get up and dance. To stay out, in cash, with your money under the mattress, is to condemn yourself to a diet of eventual beggarization (barring a somehwat unbelievable simultaneous currency rise in a recession). And then you will be eaten alive by price inflation for dessert.

It’s not necessary to play Real Estate Roulette. You can play stock markets (and PLAY is the operative word now), buy and sell options, hoard real gold and silver or trade currencies as they all go to the basement.

But we have to do something to keep ahead of the game as best we can.

Concerning RE, it IS possible that prices – at least outside of bubble areas – will NOT come down much. Property is now becoming just another flight from paper asset class, some protection against inevitable inflation.

That all asset classes are simultaneously puffed up so much is little cause for worry until we remember that incomes are not keeping up.

#86 char on 11.21.09 at 9:08 pm

Here’s Ian Gordon…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZSSOqr5Cok

…the guy must be the life of any party.

(He’s got it pretty much right, though.)

#87 Onemorething on 11.21.09 at 9:21 pm

Our governments will find options even though there are no bullets left to manipulate the market so that the US has WW then L shaped recovery.

People wont be fooled by the second leg down now in US RE and Canada’s RE market will do it all in one massive leg down 30% avg Ottawa – West and 50%+ in massive bubble regions…you know who you are!

#88 X on 11.21.09 at 9:31 pm

I am sure that the gov’t is aware of the RE bubble. However they need to keep rates low, so they publicly dismiss said bubble. The gov’t is probably hoping for a plateau of RE, neither increasing or decreasing, as lower RE valuations mean lower tax dollars brought in……

#89 nonplused on 11.21.09 at 11:02 pm

#3 vic

I think it’ll either bow sometime after June 2010 (when Carney said he might allow an interest rate rise), or when CMHC can’t find anyone else who can afford their “bubble mortgages”, which are growing daily more expensive as the principle portion rises with house prices. But then they’ll come up with some sort of mortgage interest tax deduction to keep it going. They will change the rules again. We are going to 10 times average salary in Vancouver followed by a dollar collapse. Bubbles can last a lot longer than one would think. But the bigger they grow, the bigger they blow.

Some sort of rouge wave could pop it at any time though.

I wish REIT’s would follow this thing up, so I’d have something to short. So far they are playing even with the indexes and the bubble is strictly on the residential side, where the CMHC influence is.

#32 Nostradamus jr.

Yes you are right. The massive influx of businesses to Vancouver to enjoy the highest taxes and cost of living in Canada is simply going to overrun the place!

#63 Don Bently

Doesn’t anybody remember 2008? Garth got the call pretty good, the wheels were in motion, and then Carney changed the rules! You can’t really forecast that sort of thing. But Carney’s going to have to change the rules every year now to keep it alive. We are living on government bubble support.

#90 Boombust on 11.22.09 at 12:18 am

“Here’s Ian Gordon…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZSSOqr5Cok

…the guy must be the life of any party.

(He’s got it pretty much right, though.)”

Looks like English smarm…er, charm, to me.

Just another “Howe St.Com” gold pimp.

Even King Midas was able to figure out that a sack of potatoes would be worth more than a sack of gold when things get ugly.

#91 Bottom Feeder on 11.22.09 at 12:36 am

Nikki is back! Check out the latest real estate pump at http://www.calgaryherald/2249137/story.html

#92 Nostradamus jr. on 11.22.09 at 1:11 am

Nostradamus says… Gold Bugs Beware.

….Gold is the U.S. Dollars #1 enemy.

A “Black Swan Event” is coming to Gold very soon.

Only safe place to ride out the oncoming Gold Nuclear Black Swan Event is in………..Vancouver BC.

Nostradamus jr.

#93 TJ on 11.22.09 at 2:12 am

* May I politely suggest some of these great blog dog posts avail themselves of tinyurl.com to shrink the exploding URL’s that bark the right of the columns.
Just sayin’ and just an idea.

#94 BigAl (Original) on 11.22.09 at 3:35 am

Re: Nostradamus Jr.
Ok…I’ve read just one too many from this guy.

In my travels across the country, and my one year living in Vancouver I’ve learned a few things about peoples attitudes.

-First, most everyone outside of Ontario hates Ontario, and they ESPECIALLY hate Toronto.
-Second, most everyone IN Ontario living outside of the GTA hates Toronto (especially residents of Ottawa).
-Third, Ontarians in general have no hate on for any part of the rest of the country, and Torontonians in general have no particular hate for any other part of Ontario or the rest of the country.
-Last, both Torontonians and Ontarians, however, WILL give their opinions and reasons for not living elsewhere when insulted and provoked.

One of the dumbest, most un-informed, and untrue statements I have consistently from the haters is that Ontario takes all their money. Many times there’s just a head shake and a grunt, mostly from people who have never traveled beyond their provincial or municipal neighbourhood.

If Vancouver is going to be a financial and trade capital doesn’t it, at the very very least, need a competent and trustworthy stock exchance? At the least? Wouldn’t at least ONE of the major banks be headquartered there? You know that will never happen, so that forces you to come up with the fantasy of separation – to justify your initial delusion.

According you Nosti Jr.s reasoning Seattle, and not New York should be the financial / trade capital of the U.S.? Explain that one Nostradamus – please, I’d really like to hear why Seattle is not. How many correspondent bankers, i-bankers, and the like fly multitudes of short flights between Pearson/Island airport and JFK daily, and how many from YVR? Those flights that go from YVR to Shanghai et. al. points in Asia are laden with Toronto bankers making connections – not North Van citizens. The North Van citizens are headed to Toronto to try and arrange financing, get listed on the TSX, etc.

And what if you’re like me – would rather enjoy the Ocean in clear, gorgeous, WARM waters in the Carribbean or Mediterannean instead of some cold-ass foggy rainy strait off the BC coast. I hate skiing, hate hiking, but do rent cabins and relax enjoying beautiful scenery in northern Ontario/Quebec/upstate New York/Michigan’s upper peninsula close to home. I have, all within a day’s drive, some of North America’s MAJOR urban centres – Montreal, Chicago, New York, Philly, Washington DC, Boston. When I was in Vancouver and wanted a weekend trip I could go to………uhh…..Seattle – ugh.

Let’s talk about crime now.

You see Nosti, you harp on about the beauty of North Van’s possibilities as being a gated community. The thing is, we don’t need those here in the GTA because it is, compared to BC, safe, but after living out there for a year, I can certainly understand your desperation in wanting one. The greater Vancouver area has Van, Richmond, Surrey, Coquitlam, Burnaby, etc. The GTA has Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Pickering, Oakville, etc. The HUGE difference is that I can drive through any of the GTA areas outside of Toronto and I won’t find hookers and addicts injecting and convulsing in the suburban streets. Take a drive down the Kingsway in Burnaby or any main street in Surrey or New West, even as far out as Abbotsford and its scary. You simply won’t find that in Mississauga, Oakville, Markham, etc – You just don’t. So yeah, I’d want a gated community out there too. Again, to justify your delusional views you have to come up with crazy apocalyptic scenarios or grandiose separatist schemes, blaming Ontario 5000 Km away for all the craziness and misery out there, desperately trying to cover it up like some cheap beautician, pointing in desperation to the mountains and dreary ocean – and the Olympics.

You have no substance to your arguments. No facts. No reasoning. You’re going by the old “say it enough times, and it BECOMES true” fantasy. Sell the sizzle, not the steak.

(I’ll deal with GTA haters in Ottawa later)

#95 Jojo on 11.22.09 at 3:49 am

Well Garth what I said from last year?
INFLATE OR DIE…..
Where is the Gold price, Oil price and RE prices in Canada?

Just statistics in Toronto Area:

1996 -avg. price- $198,150
1997 -avg. price- $211,307
1998 -avg. price- $216,815
1999 -avg. price- $228,372
2000 -avg. price- $243,255
2001 -avg. price- $251,508
2002 -avg. price- $275,231
2003 -avg. price- $293,067
2004 -avg. price- $315,231
2005 -avg. price- $335,907
2006 -avg. price- $351,941
2007 -avg. price- $376,236
2008 -avg. price- $379,347
2009- October- avg.price- $423,559
So when Interest rate will hit 5% and avg.price will drop to $ 380,000 then you are “smart Boy” –
“aha I told you so” . Budy with 5-7 % interest and lower current price from 15% again you’ll pay double more monthly payment, so we are waiting from 1996 to 2010 for lower price?
Ha,why you was doom-gloom when in January/09 avg.price was $343,632 and same interest rate?
You said that Gold will going less than $500.
ALL DEFLATIONIST GUYS WHERE ARE YOU?
You don’t lisen, will be Hyper-Inflatory depression till 2012, Gold over $ 2,500 and
unemployment over 20%. And After that total collapse.
Gold will drop to $ 500, Oil $ 25, and will be Global war.
Perfect storm from 2012 to 2018. Worst Depression ever,wars and New world order. Garth you are very bad with the timing of the market and please you have to learn about Inflation. (when Gold price going up than is inflation, ok).
When this recovery crap will hit the fan, than you can see that in Canada will be much worst economy than USA. So, Timing the market is Master degree not politics. Now you ‘ll see the bubble like never before
when Obama and Harper printing the money like crazy.

#96 BigAl (Original) on 11.22.09 at 3:53 am

Oh yeah….and about the winter Olympics, you do realize these are the WINTER games?

Hooray! Vancouver joins the ranks of these other powerhouses of finance and trade: Salt Lake City, Lillehammer, Turin, Albertville, Lake Placid, Calgary, Nagano, Sochi…..

#97 SaraBeth on 11.22.09 at 7:03 am

#26 Grey ~

If and when my hubby and I DO buy a home (as opposed to a house) we will pay cash for it…No rent, no mortgage… I suspect that there will be some sellers willing to give away houses in a year or less…just like they are doing in the States…..

http://homes.point2.com/US/Michigan/Livingston-County/Deerfield-Twp/1000862487-Real-Estate.aspx

I have become a patient vulture…

#98 Nostradamus jr. on 11.22.09 at 9:58 am

Big Al,

…..Thanks for your response.

its true what you say, the Penitentiary in kKingston, where you currently reside, has more facilties available to its inmates than the Penitentiary in New Westminster, from whenst you were recently transferred.

…You seem to better relate to the “private gated aspects” in your post too.

Nostradamus jr.

#99 char on 11.22.09 at 10:51 am

#90 Boombust

I agree, he’s too into gold.

But I think the Kondradieff cycle stuff is right on. Kondratieff was an interesting guy. He must have known his economic theory was going to piss Stalin off royally. He presented it anyway, and got sent to the Gulag to die. Was he naive, proud, or just hopelessly trapped ?

#100 homeboi on 11.22.09 at 10:56 am

As much as I sympathize with you people for not owning a home, I can’t help but get a little frustrated with the whole lot of you for missing some important points.

Mainly that this housing bubble will go on for at least the next 10 years; here is why:

1. The down payment on a house now is the equivalent of renting that same house for the next 1-2 years.
Which means that the home owners will just put the min down payment and go for the 35 year ammort.

2. Rates will not rise for at least 2 years; at which point, people will just lock in for the next 5-10 years at 5-6%!!

3. The banks will negotiate the deal if the housing bubble come to bust in order to keep the asset off the market and therefore keeping their mark to market intact.

In conclusion, you people are priced out forever.

#101 squidly77 on 11.22.09 at 11:24 am

This is the ticking time bomb Prime Minister Stephen Harper has tossed at the Canadian taxpayer. Why? So that he can maintain the fiction that he is a good economic manager and win a majority in the next election.

The problem is no opposition political party wants to expose the looming disaster and risk being responsible for a dramatic fall in house prices. As Liberal finance critic John McCallum told the Globe and Mail: “I don’t think we want the government to be rationing Canadian home-buying.”

The price of political cowardice will be very high. And in the end the housing bubble will burst anyway, putting taxpayers on the hook for tens of billions of dollars in defaulted mortgages.

#102 squidly77 on 11.22.09 at 11:49 am

Mainly that this housing bubble will go on for at least the next 10 years; here is why:

earth calling mars..anyone home

People are not priced out forever
rather they are now
Priced in forever

#103 sutluc on 11.22.09 at 11:59 am

homeboi, why would banks care? CMHC (you and me, the taxpayers) are going to take the hit, not the banks.

#104 Jmack on 11.22.09 at 12:03 pm

Can someone calculate, just the property tax on one of these Vancouver bubble beauties for me please. I want to meet the demographic who is overbidding an energy hog of a house by 250G’s. I wonder what the property tax bill will be after the owelympics leaves?. Somehow property tax always increases every year…Even in years when the entire city staff is on strike for an entire summer….interesting.

#105 Gord In Vancouver on 11.22.09 at 12:13 pm

#100 homeboi

….Which means that the home owners will just put the min down payment and go for the 35 year ammort.

…..which means that they’d better get a hefty raise or dig into their savings 2 years from now when rates go up. Even Canada’s biggest real estate bull, Mark Carney, said that raise will rise in 2010.

Rates will not rise for at least 2 years; at which point, people will just lock in for the next 5-10 years at 5-6%!!

I hope your plans aren’t based on your interest rate scenario. You’re obviously unfamiliar with the variable rate mortgage.

The banks will negotiate the deal if the housing bubble come to bust in order to keep the asset off the market and therefore keeping their mark to market intact.

Banks are in business to maintain clean balance sheets, not pollute them with lost cause mortgages to keep local real estate prices from dropping.

A mortgage holder who reduce negative equity by overpaying before his renewal date arrives may able to renew but this group is the exception.

#106 r on 11.22.09 at 12:28 pm

“In conclusion, you people are priced out forever.”

well, if we’re all priced out forever, who’s going to buy your house when you eventually sell ? Or do you intend to take your house with you to the pearly gates?

#107 squidly77 on 11.22.09 at 12:30 pm

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15223.html
tick tock

#108 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.22.09 at 1:10 pm

AH! Now it all truly makes sense…The RE Bubble Market is created of, by, and for Bubbleheads!

#109 Grantmi on 11.22.09 at 1:16 pm

#34 Keith in Calgary on 11.21.09 at 11:08 am
little Nikki Harrison from REMAX…….this time she is dressed like a Buddhist monk as opposed to a teenage schoolgirl.

I think she looks more like a saint…..

http://i48.tinypic.com/5vx3qp.jpg

#110 Gord In Vancouver on 11.22.09 at 1:24 pm

Re: My #105 Post

Sorry, folks

…..which means that they’d better get a hefty raise or dig into their savings 2 years from now when rates go up.

Should say:

“…..which means that they’d better get a hefty raise or dig into their savings when rates go up in 2010.”

#111 bgard on 11.22.09 at 2:08 pm

#104 Jmack on 11.22.09 at 12:03 pm
“Can someone calculate, just the property tax on one of these Vancouver bubble beauties for me please. I want to meet the demographic who is overbidding an energy hog of a house by 250G’s. I wonder what the property tax bill will be after the owelympics leaves?. Somehow property tax always increases every year…

Jmack.
I own a very similar house, probably in the same neighbourhood. In fact when i first saw the picture I thought it was my house. Even have a similar colour scheme…though mine is much nicer. Nicest house on crack alley as my wife likes to say. But on to the meat.
My taxes (on an assessed value of 700K) are 5,000/year. Hydro and Gas are 3,000/year, for the 3 households that live here, same as in the example. Plus 1,000 for insurance.
A “single family dwelling” in Vancouver will more than likely have at least 2 households, I’ve personally seen 4/ house. So you have to factor that in to the overall cost of RE.
And you’re right about the taxes never going down. I’ve owned for 12 years and seen my assessments drop twice, last March (when assessments were done at mid dip) and from about ’98 to ’00. I have always paid more each year.

#112 Evangeline on 11.22.09 at 2:30 pm

#103
((homeboi, why would banks care? CMHC (you and me, the taxpayers) are going to take the hit, not the banks.))

If real estate tanks and there are a lot of foreclosures banks will take a huge hit on their mortgage derivatives business… the mortgage backed securities (mbs) that they sell will become toxic … the banks that are the most exposed will lose the most, and yes Canadian banks are playing the game … assumption being that ‘Canada is different’

The only difference, far as I can tell, is that we don’t have huge oversupplies in our housing markets, such as the huge tracts of new devlopments etc., that they had in the U.S. and which in part contributed to their real estate markets tanking.

#113 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.22.09 at 2:40 pm

@ #101 squidly77: agree with everything you say, but I’d increase your taxpayer risk estimate… as of today, CMHC and Dim Jim have us all on the hook for $500 BILLION in mortgages (with most of the recent 2007-2009 ones being the riskiest 5%/35-yr variety).

@ #100 homeboi: I think you’re missing the point entirely. Most of the people on this blog are not simply complaining about prices going up – from what I can tell, a lot of people are already home “owners” who are in theory gaining equity in this inflated market. Everyone is concerned about how this growth is happening: 8-10 years of constant price increases (above the rate of inflation), most new buyers with next to no equity, the fake affordability calculations (based on artificially low interest rates) that realtors and banks are using to influence the marker, and a mainstream media that hypes the market stats at every turn in hopes of keeping their ad revenue.

renters complaining about prices going up. Most are homeowners

#114 Kurt on 11.22.09 at 3:13 pm

@ Big Al (original)

Please do not feed the troll.

Mock, yes, feed, no.

Your cooperation is appreciated.

#115 freedom_2008 on 11.22.09 at 4:01 pm

Garth,

I think we see the start of the house trouble here (in Victoria):

http://www.usedvictoria.com/classified-ad/10662137

#116 NUR on 11.22.09 at 4:30 pm

#59 Boombust
How can I get a mortgage with 0 down, I have trying for the last one month, but no lender would approve my mortage with 0 down.

#117 vreaa on 11.22.09 at 4:34 pm

The Vancouver Sun has suddenly and unexpectedly published a sober and cautious article about Real Estate. This contrasts with years of articles that have most often read like RE promo brochures.

Article here:
http://tinyurl.com/yj9ughg

Comments at VREAA here:
http://tinyurl.com/yl68zz4

#118 Andrew on 11.22.09 at 4:48 pm

#78 Taxpayer like you:

70% after rent, have no debt. My savings rate is somewhat less than 50%.

Reduced sign spotted on Bathurst near Bloor in TO today!

Hold onto your hats, kids, here we go!

#119 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.22.09 at 5:24 pm

Any of you RE Gurus tried reading chicken entrails lately? LOL

Reading all the prognostications about what ‘is’ or ‘will’ happen is like covertly listening to a Gamblers Anonymous meeting!

#120 $fromA$ia (Thinks Nostradamus makes more sence than Marc Carney!) on 11.22.09 at 5:45 pm

#92 Nostradamus jr. on 11.22.09 at 1:11 am Nostradamus says… Gold Bugs Beware.

….Gold is the U.S. Dollars #1 enemy.

A “Black Swan Event” is coming to Gold very soon.

Only safe place to ride out the oncoming Gold Nuclear Black Swan Event is in………..Vancouver BC.

Nostradamus jr.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Another comment of this guy I tried to read and understand…Actually I have to hand it to this guy, he makes more sence then Marc Carney.

Keep up the good work.

Can we get some more pic’s of Marc please :P!

#121 Herb on 11.22.09 at 5:56 pm

bgard @ 111,

love your assessed value of $700,000 and taxes of $5,000/yr!

In the Nation’s Illustrious Capital, I am paying $6,140.24 on a 3,000 sq. ft.,teo-family property assessed at $475,000. Heating, hydro and water/sewage add another $5,200. Both assessment and taxes will increase substantially in 2010, even before City Council has to find more money, due to an automatic phase-in of higher assessments made in 2008.

How about fellow blog dogs contributing their assesssments and property taxes for a coast-to-coast survey? I’m going to start looking for a cheaper place to live, or at least a place where city council is not braindead and does pay attention to fiscal realities.

#122 TaxHaven on 11.22.09 at 6:21 pm

#90 Char, what if things do not “get that ugly”? What if we’re NOT circling the wagons, living like Mad Max and building underground bunkers?

Paper currencies are all just joined at the hip to the U.S. dollar…what if currencies merely head for the basement where they belong and gold goes to the moon? That sack of potatoes will look pretty useless when your paper buys a lot less than now…

Gold will fly.

#123 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.22.09 at 6:24 pm

I’ll be interested to see all of the realtor/mortgage broker comments on this article:

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2009/11/turner-predicts-10-15-year-bear-market-in-housing.html

Garth – your 15% prediction seems a bit rosy to me. Many people have called for a return to 2005-2006 prices, which means a 30%-40% drop I think. 15% is basically just the bump some markets have seen since 2008!!!

#124 Maurice on 11.22.09 at 6:45 pm

Amigos: Property taxes will be the straw that breaks the consumers’ back. The Province will cut transfer payments and down-load more costs to local municiplaities. We need to get by-laws passed at the local level, restricting taxes to 1% of assessment and assessment increases to no more than the rate of inflation. In Owen Sound we are already taxed at more than 2% of assessment and the Province is cutting $2 million in transfer payments. This will result in a 10% increase in property taxes. A home assessed at $400,000 (waterfront property) has taxes in excess of $8,000. And, we pay $2 for each bag of garbage with a one bag limit. Is there any hope in controlling government expenditures?

#125 somecatchphrase on 11.22.09 at 7:06 pm

Incredible post from Chris Martenson today!

This one is a MUST SEE!

“Our Slow-Motion Crisis”

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/slow-motion-crisis/31695

#126 Taxpayer like you on 11.22.09 at 7:06 pm

118 Andrew. Good work! Carry on.

121 Herb – 1600 Sq ft main floor with full basement part finished 1/2 acre, city water, paved & curbed, septic, one garbage can/week, unlimited re-cycling every 2 weeks.
Assessed $450k. Small town coastal BC.

$2500/yr after homeowners grant. I dont complain.

#127 Bud Tuesday on 11.22.09 at 7:13 pm

C A N A R I E in the okanagan…….. 600K 2bdr condo
http://tinyurl.com/yg4zsy8 mls106650

Enjoy your waterfront view; morning, noon, and night. evening not incl..Beach access just steps away from your door, literally. All measurements are just a guess!!!!. Seller is a licensed real estate agent( Within 4 months he had completed the course and passed his exam. ) http://www.okanaganlife.ca/aboutus.html

:) :) :)
800 square feet for 600 000 thousands dollars in a 5000 retirement community….lots o f Oh Oh Oh

Live your dream at Watermark Beach!! enjoy the beach front municipal park, share it with the pack of wild geese and their dumplings, even swim in the lake if you have gutts!! transients included, condofee = shusssh

mark Carneys is the next door owner, lol, friendly guy, bit stressed ourdays http://preview.tinyurl.com/yhe7mwf

even with a possible 30k + commission, those 2 pseudo-agents rather have a smiley pose and pedicure than post a pic of the suite!!! gotta go see it, hum smell the bacon…………….

#128 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.22.09 at 7:41 pm

#115 freedom_2008 — “. . . we see the start of the house trouble here (in Victoria): . . .” — and — #118 Andrew — “Reduced sign spotted on Bathurst near Bloor in TO today! Hold onto your hats, kids, here we go!”

Hmmm. Two areas of the country (Victoria and Toronto). David Bakody can keep us informed about the Atlantic provinces. The Okanagan is static now, up a little, down a little.

Guess things are heating up toward 2010 when the HST kicks in, when Carney receives orders from the US Fed to increase the GST to 7% again (to make up a huge shortfall in revenue, from 2% GST cuts plus all those lost mfg. jobs gone to Chindia — less labor costs = fatter profits).

Carney then orders Stevie and Jimbo to pass legislation increasing the GST and decreasing our income flow, makes sure (with or without a majority) that big oil is controlling the country; then gets Bill C-6 passed which, at its lowest level, removes all Civil Liberties which are presently available to all.

So our Constitution becomes just as dubya described — “the constitution is just another goddamned piece of paper”.
——
#120 $fromA$ia (Thinks Nostradamus makes more sence than Marc Carney!) — “Nostradamus jr. . . . Keep up the good work.”

Correct. A prophet is never accepted in his homeland. Further — History repeats Weimar hyperinflation is being set up again. 4:22 clip, and the parallels are quite uncanny.

Also — US Barter — list of 26,000 (or more) US companies that barter. Any figures on Cdn. companies?
——
#121 Herb and #124 Maurice — Bingo! With a continually decreasing workforce + sliding payments from the province, increasing property taxes is the only way cities can keep their heads above water.

Our property taxes in Kelowna run about $3 – $4K / yr., but we pay monthly so it makes the last bill only a few hundred.

#129 $fromA$ia (Thinks Nostradamus makes more sence than Marc Carney!) on 11.22.09 at 7:47 pm

Ehem… Gold is $1160 in China trading.

#130 kw on 11.22.09 at 8:07 pm

In response to 121 Herb
North Shore Nova Scotia total assessment 34,000=$400 taxes.
Comes with 13+ acres 180 yr old farmhouse that has many years experience with depressions.

#131 Barb the proof reader on 11.22.09 at 8:21 pm

#101 squidly77 This is the ticking time bomb Harper has tossed at the taxpayer so that he can maintain the fiction that he is a good economic manager and win a majority in the next election

Very true, with Harp it’s all about keeping the public weakened and uninformed.. all the better to trick a majority and implement his barely concealed petty ideologies. Canada’s darkest period is only just beginning, and we’ll be able to credit Harper with every step of the downfall. It’s just so sad, the damage he causes Canada will be irreversible but the general population is too trusting to see him for what he is.

#132 $fromA$ia (Thinks Nostradamus makes more sence than Marc Carney!) on 11.22.09 at 8:46 pm

“general population is too trusting to see him for what he is.”- Barb

Don’t forget the population trusted the Fat Turds 0/40 bomb. We’ve took it hook line and sinker.

“…and I mean, nobody… saw this thing comming!”- Fat Turd’.

Mean while the US was already in 8 months of downturn.

#133 Calgary Kid on 11.22.09 at 8:59 pm

#121 Herb – How about fellow blog dogs contributing their assesssments and property taxes for a coast-to-coast survey?

Calgary 2300 sqft assessed 535K and taxes at 2400/yr. But you should see the side streets in the winter… looking forward to that.

#134 Nostradamus jr. on 11.22.09 at 8:59 pm

#114 Kurt

…This troll has been consistently correct since appearing on this blog….simply reference my posts.

…in fact Garth and i agree gold is not a currency.

…I predicted China and India will trade their gold for food.

… Garth and I do not agree about a “bubble” in Vancouver.

…Garth has not opined on my prediction of Western Canada seceding.

…Months ago I predicted Refugees by the millions might flight to Canada….recently Canada has shut the door on Czech and Mexican refugees.

I was called a racist and temporarily banned.

…nearly 500 years ago I predicted that you Kurt, would enjoy a long and happy life….and that you would tithe me 20% of all your assets.

…send it to….c/o Garth Turner at his mailing address.

Nostradamus jr.

#135 hmm... on 11.22.09 at 9:15 pm

And now the lies are coming out :

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/hackers-prove-global-warming-is-scam.html

#136 Kurt on 11.22.09 at 10:14 pm

#134 NDJ – and now I’m supposed feed you? You must be stupider than I thought.

#137 rory on 11.22.09 at 11:52 pm

#121 Herb …

Agreed all city councils are brain-dead, your not alone …a little town in the Okanagan – Summerland, pop. around 12K with little industry outside of fruit, wine, and tourists and acting as a commuter city for Penticton the wise Councillors hired a Climate Action – Coordinator – (2-Year Term – Temporary Position). A CUPE position in the $50K range.
“NATURE AND SCOPE OF WORK
Under the direction of the Manager of Development Services, the incumbent will be mainly responsible for the establishment and implementation of Climate Protection
strategies and measures in accordance with federal, provincial and municipal legislationas well as provide support in general planning and development issues.
DUTIES: Coordinates the identification of targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and policies and actions proposed to achieve those targets” + more … http://www.summerland.ca

Ummm … in Summerland that would be telling the tourists to keep their big gas hog RV’s out of here, no running your boats up and down the lake, no using golf carts, all you farmers if you grew less food then those damn tractor emissions would be reduced, and no more burning orchard residue (oh wait they already have that in place) … more bloated local bureaucracy running amok …spending money we do not have on crap …jeez…just another $50K + benefits to be added to yearly budgets (probably subsidized by the prov G (so same dif)) …heck only what another $20 or so $$ per household …repeat over and over again as govt’s do then pretty soon we have serious cash outflows …yes the cost just to wake up in this country is getting a little out of hand …again, IMO.

#138 EB on 11.23.09 at 2:04 am

#135 hmm… – I really hope you’re not serious. I suspect people need to have the mentality of a teenager to believe this ZOMG CONSPIRACY! garbage. It doesn’t scan and the real world doesn’t work like that.

You can disagree with the science, that’s everyone’s prerogative, but the X-files stuff is just ridiculous. Every email I’ve seen from that batch is 100% out-of-context.

#139 SaraBeth on 11.23.09 at 6:32 am

#135 hmm…

Perhaps you should not believe everything you read…especially on wackadoodle web sites with agendas…

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j9MrjlmXzORMlHNvYfE9yAlgtiBwD9C4OSH03

For those who deny that Climate Change is real and is happening now…never mind HOW it is happening, but that it IS…The question is…

What if you are wrong?

#140 vicguy on 11.23.09 at 12:50 pm

“However, the reason CHEK is in trouble, is that they are a really bad television station. Watching their evening news is like watching Ted Mack’s Amateur Hour or listening to Flora Foster Jenkins. On the weekends, there is no 5:00 PM news on A News, so we watch CHEK. Most of the ½ hour is spent laughing out loud, at how bad they are.”

“Can we laugh at you, too? — Garth”

Oh absolutely…! Especially if I was a so-called professional television journalist giving a performance like last weekend. During the weatherperson’s entire forecast, the camera was positioned so her head was cut off at the shoulders… It was hilarious…!

#141 Future Expatriate on 11.23.09 at 4:52 pm

#92 – Oh yeah, like ANYONE’S going to listen to you…

Even the clueless run… and know if to do anything, it’s always the exact opposite of what you post.

#142 pjwlk on 11.24.09 at 9:38 am

#14 Jane54 London Ontario is real, I’ve been there…