Not as it seems

Compton California, $94 a square foot

pink1

Lest we forget the madness that is real estate. The herd giveth & the herd taketh away. This house sold in 1996 for $32,000, 1998 for $105,000, 2003 for $140,000,  and in 2005 for $208,000. Now in foreclosure, yours for $54,400.

__________________________________

Are there two Ontarios at the moment? One a hotbed of real estate gumlickers and the other its destitute twin?

Would seem so, according to the nice lady on the other end of the line at MPAC – the private sector company set up some years ago to keep tabs on the worth of everyone’s property. The outfit uses recent sales figures, appraisals where available, a heap of computer modelling plus a layer of hog wart dust to come up with the current value (or ‘market’ value) of real estate. This, of course, is then sold to municipalities who base property taxes on the data.

The latest MPAC trick has been to send property owners a notice of new valuation for the period between 2005 and 2008, with a honking big addition which is then phased in between 2009 and 2012. This, naturally, would not prevent them from sending a new notice next year with a new phase-in between 2010 and 2013.

Until now.

As you might imagine, the bunker received one of these nasty little surprises and an extra $200,000 in property valuation over its previous level. But unknown to the evil sorcerers at MPAC, I had an appraisal done of the POS before I bought it in the depths of despair and snow last winter.

My loins girded for battle, appraisal in my cold clenched fingers (the ones that weren’t already curled around my vintage Remington Defender), MPAC was approached.

“No problem,” she said. “Actually we have run into a major situation with the substantial decline in property values.” And that was that. A few papers to file, and the two hundred large is gone. Which makes a boy wonder about the veracity of the real estate stats which keep getting thrown around by The Cartel’s regional offices. Oh yeah, and the house across the road is still for sale…

In fact, all may not be exactly as it seems anywhere.

In China this week that Obama guy warned of a double-dip recession. “It is important to recognize if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession,” he told a news network.

Ya think? The US deficit this year will be $1.4 trillion, and trillion-dollar shortfalls are forecast for the next ten years. Meanwhile China keeps its currency low on purpose so it can flood the US with imports then use the money to buy up American debt. How does this end well?

Meanwhile this weekend Canada will cross the half-trillion dollar mark in the accumulation of national debt. I know this is not as interesting as Calgary cleavage, but trust me, it’s more enduring. The consequences are higher taxes, higher inflation and higher interest rates. Oh yeah, and lower houses.

And did you hear the one about the Parliamentary Budget Officer? He says the country will have a structural (that means permanent) deficit of about $19 billion a year as of 2015, thanks to the costly aging Boomers and the mess Jim Flaherty is currently creating. What a character – telling anyone under the age of 55 that they’re basically screwed. No wonder the government’s moving his office to Iqaluit.

So, nothing is quite what it seems at the moment. But I’d say that will change by the Spring, when the ground’s soft enough to start work on the drone runway.

111 comments ↓

#1 Jonathan on 11.18.09 at 10:47 pm

US deficit for 2009 was 1.4 trillion.

For 2010 it will be much higher.

October was the fifth month in a row that the deficit has broken a new record. In October the US deficit reached $176 billion. Annualized over 12 months, that is a deficit of $2.1 trillion.

The worse part of all is that while the deficit will get higher, the impact of the stimulus will wear off to zero after the first to second quarter of 2010.

Jobs are only created at the beginning of the stimulus spend since that is when companies and government offices hire. Once they have hired, the employees then require a constant pay cheque.

Then as we move beyond the planning process to implementation, the workers will then need resources to conduct their work: concrete, servers, ashpalt, steel, computers, construction equipment. This second wave of spending causes a smaller employment gain but an even larger taxpayer expense.

The third wave comes when the taxpayers revolt, forcing the government to layoff all the workers who have no work left to complete.

#2 sunburned canuck on 11.18.09 at 11:15 pm

Attention all real estate investors!!!
This is the deal of the century, hurry before it’s gone!

At first glance, i thought it might have been Brad Lamb’s place…

http://www.luxist.com/2009/11/17/650-million-price-cut-on-villa-leopolda/?icid=main|main|dl4|link7|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.luxist.com%2F2009%2F11%2F17%2F650-million-price-cut-on-villa-leopolda%2F>

#3 AJ on 11.18.09 at 11:24 pm

The sad thing is, if that house were in Toronto it would be a bargain at $299,000!

#4 Michael Motorcycle on 11.18.09 at 11:24 pm

Thanks Garth. I look forward to your posts everyday.

#5 The truth on 11.18.09 at 11:41 pm

Rent is less than a mortgage for the same place. Prices will drop they say.? Not likely. You pay the rent for 35 years and I’ll pay a mortgage. At the end, your kids can rent my kids place. see a pattern?

#6 random guy on 11.18.09 at 11:44 pm

compton? come on! who’s going to be my neighbour, the bloods or the crips? will you be red or blue, garth? you can’t change affiliations once you choose this time though.

#7 LS on 11.19.09 at 12:02 am

“Oh yeah, and the house across the road is still for sale…”

Living across the road from Garth? I can think of few things more scary. Just the clatter of the keyboard 24 hours a day would get pretty annoying…

See ya tomorrow in Victoria!

#8 Pascal on 11.19.09 at 12:03 am

Hello folks !
I am in Quebec city, and here we do not speak a lot of bubble in RE. Everything is ok. –But I have found
the following blog about the real estate bubble in Quebec (in French), with several very interessing graphs :
http://bulle-immo-quebec.hautetfort.com
The used method consist to compare the evolution between personal income (after deduction of taxes) and the house price, and since 1980. This is done with a calculated (Friggit methodology – french economist)—, which equals 1 when personal income and house price vary at the same rate in time.

#9 Anschutz on 11.19.09 at 12:09 am

What the heck is going on. Banks are dropping their fixed rates! I’m starting to think the government is trying to send Canadians a message…. Inflation’s coming. Buy a house now before inflation sets in and everything (home prices included) inflate into the stratosphere.

#10 Grey on 11.19.09 at 12:12 am

National Post

Canada’s (Sub-Prime) Mortgage Market – Causing Concern for the Bank of Canada?

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpmagazinedaily/archive/2009/11/19/canada-s-sub-prime-market-causing-concern-for-the-bank-of-canada.aspx

With its great chart:

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpmagazinedaily/Canadian%20Debt.png

#11 nonplused on 11.19.09 at 12:31 am

As long as we have lots of good cleavage in Calgary, who cares about the national debt??

#1 Jonathan,

That all makes sense except the part you forgot, which is where the goverment changes all the rules and starts printing money. Then you get inflation, not layoffs. And that problem is worse, because it wipes out everybody, employed or not. Started around these parts in oh, about 1973, but now it’s gaining speed.

#12 Steve on 11.19.09 at 12:42 am

Garth, now that the government and many of my fellow Canadians have done the equivalent of sticking their hand into a rotating PTO on the back of a tractor, who will be there to figuratively help stop the bleeding of their bloody stump, and tell them that they’ll never have use of that hand again? Cause I don’t want to be anywhere near them when reality hits them. Thanks.

#13 Alberta Ed on 11.19.09 at 12:49 am

FUBAR, for sure. Garth, don’t ever register that Defender.

#14 Ted on 11.19.09 at 12:58 am

The tale of two Cities is not new. If you strip out Toronto and Vancouver sales the rest of the market is dismal in that it has not advanced since last year. In Barrie for example prices remain the same as last year and the sales volume is lower. Inventory is way lower that the same time last year. Normally his would lead to higher prices. I have no doubt this is repeated in most markets in Ontario and across canada. The market for most folks s already flat. Having to listed to the crap that is spewed out over the air waves about how great things are in Real Estate is very confusing for most sellers. 2010 is year that will hurt the most. Its going to hurt real bad.

#15 Joshua on 11.19.09 at 1:14 am

so your saying I have to wait another 4 months to possibly see the house price correction. Man, this correction is taking a lot longer than I anticipated…come to think of it, Im starting to feel it probably wont come at all…America wont collapse, they have too much power and control in this world, Canada will somehow be perfectly fine dispite the deficit. Im not saying Garth you got no credibility about what you say, I tell many about you but it seems that the ppl in power have so much power that they will not let this market fall or correct.

I also just read the RBC and TD just dropped their interest rates.

#16 WhatTheHeck? on 11.19.09 at 1:15 am

I love it. Compton Cali. Let this be a cautionary tale for those contemplating the plunge into the deceptively comparable real estate prospects in Leaside, Toronto.

After all, Leaside barely compares to exclusive and historic Compton.

Compton even had a popular tune dedicated to it in the colourful nineties. I believe it was “Straight Outta Compton” by a do-wop group called N.W.A.; some of them went on even greater solo career fame.

…Honestly and more realistically, this is really more a cautionary tale that even well off journalists should lay off the kush. Seriously.

#17 Munch on 11.19.09 at 1:27 am

May you live in interesting times!

Meant in the nicest possible way, of course

#18 Two-thirds on 11.19.09 at 1:40 am

A very incisive article on the subject of exports driving the US recovery:

“The Fantasy of an Export-Led Recovery (November 18, 2009)

Official propaganda has shifted to promoting the notion that America’s future growth will come from exports. The idea is pure fantasy.

It seems the Obama administration has just fallen in love with the same dream the rest of the world has been pursuing for decades: export your way out of recession. ”

http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov09/exporting11-09.html

#19 rory on 11.19.09 at 1:50 am

#1 Jonathan

As J says, those at the public teet …tick tock.

#20 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.19.09 at 2:03 am

“This house sold in 1996 for $32,000, . . . Now in foreclosure, yours for $54,400.”

The clock has almost struck High Noon at the OK Corral, coming full circle from midnight when the evil hobgoblins and witches were enjoying their moment in the moon.

“. . . China keeps its currency low on purpose so it can flood the US with imports . . .”

Using round figures, say there are 20 mln. Americans who are on pogey, with another 20 mln. who have have given up looking for work altogether. This does not include people who have lost their homes to foreclosure and are currently living in tent cities, shelters, etc.

Does anyone expect them to splurge on unnecessary Thanksgiving / Xmas gifts, when they obviously have no spendable cash?
——
It doesn’t seem that these two are linked, but look beyond both headlines. — Net Control

This is no more than a fluff piece of candy wrapping — Horsefeathers
——
Other US home prices.
——
Neither a borrower nor lender be. Stay outta debt, stay outta trouble. Period. No exception. Whose the one in trouble?
——
Another look at two currencies.
——
Bio-labs are fast becoming the ‘in’ thing.
——
Anyone recall Iraq? “And I predict that when that ‘Foreign intelligence service’ gives the laptop to the media, it will be chock full of planted incriminating files.” (wrh.com).

#21 TJ on 11.19.09 at 2:51 am

Canadians are waking up to a few hard truths.

You don’t get something for nothing in this life.

It just doesn’t work that way.

The other hard truth is that our PM doesn’t give a fig that your Great Grandkids will be living in a quonset hut.

‘Expediency’ thy name is Ottawa.

#22 jay on 11.19.09 at 2:51 am

Pretty sure I saw that house in movie around 93′. Good times for all… not so much.

#23 Emma on 11.19.09 at 4:12 am

#131 Raffy P – yesterday

You asked for the Canadian equivalent to the Case Shiller index. Ours is run by Teranet and the base year (value of 100) is set at June 2005 (as opposed to January 2000 for the Case Shiller).

The monthly reports provide the percent change year over year and are found in the Communiques tab. And of course, don’t forget to read the methodology – they are actually pairing sales of the same property.

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/

#24 OnlyTheBankersLaugh on 11.19.09 at 5:35 am

You mean governments would actually lay off workers? No, say it ain’t so. I don’t see many of them on furlough right now like major Fortune 500 companies have done during this so-called recession (except real estate).

There are many houses for sale in Oakville Burlington that aren’t get snapped up (only ones that are right street, right house) so I am trying to see the real sustainability of this mad media hype. When will MPAC get quoted? Garth, can you send a heat seeking e-missle into the G&M?

Of course, with recent drop in interest rates by bank, I see a long period of trying to hold off higher rates and they may pull it off for a few years and some more great RE gains as China is in the same boat if they pulled their debt buying, they bite the hand.

Obama and Carney(val) man are both warning that it’s not sustainable but it’s talk. We, as a human herd, can’t decipher these signals. We need more hard love a$$ training than that to respond but there will be a momentum to this for years until it’s all too late. It’s too late to drag the horse out of the barn on 5 /35 yr mortgages so those kids are poor and now load on this extra debt and we’re talking working poor for all those younger folks. Kids living with me for ever. Are u joking me? Shipped all of those professional and manufacturing jobs offshore and now really stick it to them. Being young just got a whole lot more taxing.

Only the bankers laugh… once again. They’re making money backwards and forwards. Bailout or not as they are ….. the BEST AND THE BRIGHTEST (maybe I do have banker envy a la Capitol One scotch and cigars in monster mousetrap commercial)

#25 TS on 11.19.09 at 6:54 am

“the herd giveth, and the herd taketh away”…LOVE it Garth! As human beings our ability to make rational decisions is inversely proportional to our degree of emotional arousal…either positive or negative. Some folks are so worked up right now that they obviously cannot see that the economical fundamentals simply cannot support the current level of low interest rates and the high house prices that they’ve created.

Asset bubbles are growing every day. The US government now owes so much money that it will be impossible to ever pay it off. So, the short term solution for the Obama administration and the Fed is to purposely allow the dollar to devalue….which has the effect of ‘reducing’ the deficit. A dangerous strategy since no country has ever fixed its economic fundamentals by devaluing its currency.

There is a growing spread between short term interest rates and longer term US government bond rates. Research has shown that this is a good predictor of rising short term interest rates in the future.

The only thing that is likely to stop this increase in short term interest rates is a ‘double dip’ recession and a corresponding decline in overall economic activity. Should this happen we can expect unemployment to ramp up further – and house prices decline as more people are unable to meet their payment obligations.

The following link will take readers to a paper on the link between higher interest rates and increases in spread between short and long term rates:
http://eprints.uum.edu.my/1018/1/Bond_Yield_Spread_And_Short-Term_Interest_Rate_Movements.pdf

A few months back I posted a comment regarding some 20-something friends of my daughter who had purchased a $525,000 home in Toronto with 5% down. Somehow a bank approved these two single guys for a $500,000 mortgage even though one had only been working at this first job out of unversity for less than a year, and the other for about 3 years. Well, one is still working, the other one (an newly minted engineer with less than 1 year of work experience) was laid off from his job about a month after they closed on the home. No job prospects in sight for him, and one of their renters is also now unemployed. This does not look like it will end well.

#26 bob on 11.19.09 at 6:58 am

delusional or nuts. these are the only words that come to mind when i see what ottawa is doing. this stimulus strategy is the fairy dust of tyranny. it leads to depression , revolt and then repression. we have an american puppet for prime minister , a wannabe american for the opposition and a wish he was leading the ndp.
o canada.

#27 David Bakody on 11.19.09 at 7:11 am

Two Items:

First ….. stopped in to check out a car to small SUV trade same year 2006 both Honda’s both good shape same class (EX) …. whoa! Even with heavy dealing it would be costly. (I can and did say No Thanks)

Second …. both houses in my backyard on what was a street where homes have sold in days and by sure in a month or two. Two have been on the market well priced 225K two story well maintained since mid summer, now have Reduced Price signs.

Perhaps it is time to lower interest rates again … worked in the Spring

#28 Robert1 on 11.19.09 at 7:19 am

# 6 The Truth

” Rent is less than a mortgage for the same place. Prices will drop they say.? Not likely. You pay the rent for 35 years and I’ll pay a mortgage. At the end, your kids can rent my kids place. see a pattern? ”

********************************************

Here’s the deal chum ( seeing as you have brought children into the equation ). The divorce rate in Canada is at or approaching 50 %. After going through one, my x and I took separate paths in housing. She chose ownership of the matrimonial home and I chose to rent. Many years later, she is still paying HER mortgage and I am still renting. Doesn’t seem to be too much of a difference between us there, now does there. The diference though is that I could, if I chose, buy her house out $ CASH $ today…… you know, No Mortgage.

I guess my kids will be able to have their cake and eat it as well. House and $ CASH $.

” See a pattern ” ?

#29 Mikey on 11.19.09 at 7:38 am

garth, Is it not possible as a tax payer to get people of canada together to oust the government is it ever been done? where the average everyday citizen takes over the government and puts in a leader? maybe you could be the leader?

Mikey

#30 Nostradamus jr. on 11.19.09 at 8:58 am

Other Cyberspace scuttlebutt….

…Pneumonic plague hits the Ukraine and China

…Gold bars made from Tungsten

…World is waiting for major countries, other than the U.S., to declare BK

…China’s economy abusing, unchecked, the World’s climate

…China owns “nuclear technology” capable of nuking “anywhere” in the world…including Dufferin Township…nowhere is safe.

…the worlds elite and rich all relocating to Vancouver proper…North & West Vancouver (North Shore)considered the safest location in the world.

…the North Shore considered the safest Privately gated coummunity, accessable only by two bridges and one highway from the north.

…I predicted this nearly 500 years ago

Nostradamus jr.

#31 Sid on 11.19.09 at 9:02 am

Garth, if you are predicting inflation, then why wouldn’t that price inflation also apply to real estate and rents?

Stagflation – higher prices caused by energy increases and a debt overhang, not increased economic activity or positive output. — Garth

#32 Al on 11.19.09 at 9:07 am

I’ve seen that Compton house before. Dr HBB.

#33 View from the south on 11.19.09 at 9:56 am

Greetings from the other RE world.
What would this fetch in Van or TO?
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=8455766
This one’s on my street, she’ll probably have to knock 25-30 off to sell and it is in really great shape.
http://www.realtor.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=8766896
Windsor is a reality show that the rest of Canada should keep an eye on. Stimulus money is pretty much all that is keeping anyone around here, that and real estate that can’t be sold.

#34 Mike (authentic) on 11.19.09 at 10:05 am

What ever happend to prudent spending and saving? What ever happend to living for the future rather than now? What ever happend to Canada and Canadians?

The CDN gov’t should be much smarter than this, they should be able to lead by example and pay down the debt, invest in things for the future (energy, roads, schools, heathcare, technology, manufacturing) that can leave a lasting impression on the Canadian economy.

Printing money and throwing it away will leave a lasting impression, but not the one I want as a Canadian.

#35 Mike (authentic) on 11.19.09 at 10:07 am

Obama

“It is important to recognize if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession,” he told a news network.

Wow. Well if that isn’t the toad in the hole telling you what’s-what I don’t know what is.

#36 Calgary_Rip_Off on 11.19.09 at 10:08 am

#6 The Truth: American wanna be.

No more posts about the United States Garth. Plenty of cheap real estate there.

What’s relevant is Canada.

Tell Harper he is large and not in charge.

I vote you for the President of Canada Garth.

#37 X on 11.19.09 at 10:16 am

Canadian Capitalist wonders what today’s home buyers are thinking…

http://www.canadiancapitalist.com/

#38 anyone on 11.19.09 at 10:29 am

No doubt about that, rates are going lower because there are less and less buyers. (Is it “saturation” like ponzi scheme? no new entrants). Same thing in 2006-2007 in US. They are having their RE downturn even with the lowest historical rate, which tells me, there is a moment when nothing can be done.
IMHO it is very simple: you want to buy a house 5/35 ? be slave for the rest of your 35 years. You don’t want to be slave ? Don’t buy if can’t afford 25 years and at lest 10% down payment. I don’t think many could do that in today’s conditions, competing with people without saving but with access to the easy money. You see? No way to be responsible, you have to compete with the 535 people.
Smile and wave….!!!

#39 curious to know on 11.19.09 at 10:42 am

to Pascal:

Thank you for the web site of info on RE in Quebec. It confirmed what I thought after I spoke with family there.

My sister lives in Thetford Mines where old houses only semi renovated are on market for about $250,000.

The only economy in Thetford Mines is regional hospital,k regional CGEP and Walmart. All local stores, big or small, have been closed for some time. Many people live on welfare.

No farming in that area. It is a former mining town well known for contaminated water supply.

#40 Ratpick on 11.19.09 at 11:23 am

@ #6 — the truth

“You pay the rent for 35 years and I’ll pay a mortgage. At the end, your kids can rent my kids place. see a pattern?”

I’m comfortable with that arrangement. Quite comfortable, in fact.

Whoever has the biggest pile when he dies, wins.

#41 Oakville Owner on 11.19.09 at 11:46 am

#7- I got a good laugh from that one.

On a serious note Garth, you probably didn’t even need an appraisal on your bunker to get the $200 000 knocked off. Me and my neighbour bought our places in the down turn last year and both paid approximately $120 000 less then it appraised for by MPAC. We just sent in our purchase documents and a well worded letter explaining our position and they caved in no time. Garth I am curious, I just found your book and blog after we bought are current home in Nov 2008.

Were you recomending to buy homes last year during the downturn? It seems to have paid off for you, me and my neighbour.

#42 Onemorething on 11.19.09 at 11:52 am

The question will not be how far our RE will retrace, 2003 2001 1998 highs but how long will it stay there, the 70’s sure tells a story but why isnt everyone looking at the double dip depression chart and the run into the mid 40’s from the early 30’s….Decade & a Half folks.

WW shaped then an L!

How soon we forget what is yet to come!

#43 R1200C on 11.19.09 at 12:00 pm

They moved the “Parliamentary Budget Office to Iqaluit” to try to turn the economy around of course…

Nunavut Trust plunges by $150 million in financial meltdown

The Nunavut Trust took a beating when the global financial meltdown battered investments around the world last year.And according to financial statements tabled at Nunavut Tunngavik Inc.’s annual general meeting those losses also hammered NTI’s bottom line.
The Nunavut Trust, a collection on investments backed by the $1.14 billion Nunavut Inuit received from Ottawa as part of the land claim, saw its earnings drop by more than $60 million between 2007 and 2008, to $41 million. (Nunatsiaq Online, November 18, 2009)

http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/8953_nunavut_trust_plunges_by_150_million_in_financial_meltdown/

#44 My_View on 11.19.09 at 12:03 pm

Compton,

I just love your comparisons or should I say examples.

#45 Sid on 11.19.09 at 12:06 pm

but Garth, during the stagflation in the 70’s, didn’t real estate values rise? And why would you use phrases like “cash is king” when you’re predicting an inflationary economy? Isn’t debt better to have during inflation?

#46 Foggy on 11.19.09 at 12:16 pm

There are 1.5 million homes in foreclosure in the US with more on the way. This is staggering.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/19/real_estate/buying_foreclosures_tips/index.htm?cnn=yes

#47 kitchener1 on 11.19.09 at 12:48 pm

#15 Ted

So true!

Toronto is hot but the outside areas are hurting in terms of RE. Barrie/East Toronto-Durham/Guelph/Kitchener/Cambridge etc… prices have stagnated and if I dare say, have even dropped a tiny bit, thats with lower sales volume. Only homes selling fast or for full price are the ones 225K or under in good shape in good neighbours. And even on this homes its not uncommon to have them sell for 10-15K below asking.

Even within the centre of the universe Toronto, only houses that are in the right area are selling fast, lots of homes in York/East York that are sitting on the market despite price drops.

Problem is that too many sellers are drinking the RE kool aid from CREA and pricing their homes too high, a home priced to high eventually sells for less then what it would have if priced right.

Within Toronto it seems that everyone is buying homes with illegal basements or converted duplexs. This is causing serious downward pressure on rents. I don’t know what people are thinking? Basements or renting rooms are not long term, the people that rent those are short term, as soon as their financial situation improves they are out.

#48 Grantmi on 11.19.09 at 12:49 pm

HST tax break for BC home buyers just announced!!

http://bit.ly/23peiu

Finance Minister Colin Hansen, who earlier this week said he could not follow Ontario’s lead in offering new breaks on the HST, said today in a statement: “We heard the concerns from consumers and industry about how the HST might affect home buyers.”

The threshold will rise to $525,000, instead of the $400,000 that was initially proposed.

#49 Chaostrology on 11.19.09 at 12:58 pm

COMPTON!!!!!!!! LMAO!

Does it come with Kevlar body armor and a car with run flat tires?

Many years ago when we were planning a trip to SoCal, a friend of mine who grew up in L.A. warned me to stay away from Compton. If by some mistake I ended up in Compton I was to run all the red lights and head straight for the nearest cop.

$54,000. is way overpriced, unless you have a million dollar insurance policy on your brother-in-law.

Ha,ha, ha… good one!

#50 PeckedToDeathByDucks on 11.19.09 at 1:00 pm

Geithner calms markets:

Complaining about a lack of tool to fight financial panics, he says “Coming into AIG, we had basically duct tape and string.”

And now he closes with a reassuring:
“Unfortunately, the regulatory regime that failed so terribly leading up to the financial crisis is precisely the regulatory regime we have today,”

The market, never missing an opportunity, and keen of hearing and commom sense says:
Buy! Buy! There’s never been a better opportunity.

Hu laughs.

#51 Kelly McMae on 11.19.09 at 1:07 pm

You’re sold out tonight in Vic. Too bad I can’t go. Give em’ hell.

#52 Genghis on 11.19.09 at 1:16 pm

According to deficit and interest rate projection by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in the US, the US government will need to pay around $4.8 trillion in interest *alone* over the next decade.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/19/news/economy/debt_interest/index.htm

Boggles the mind.

A combination of tax increases and program cuts look inevitable. The only question is when.

The UK government is also in very rough shape. There the consensus is that the bitter medicine will be coming not long after the election (in June).

#53 Keith in Calgary on 11.19.09 at 1:26 pm

I’d rather carry $100K at 15% than $300K at 5%………

#54 George on 11.19.09 at 1:27 pm

Garth, since the compton comparison is getting some negative feedback and it’s been several posts past the hot chick realtor, why did you block my “you removed her pr ranties while she slept” post Was the scooby doo language offensive? And don’t tell me it was irrelevant to the discussion thread because every fourth or fifth post was cat call after cat call that you let through. It hurt my feelings. I’m sensitive here. By the way the Compton comparison doesn’t fly.

#55 HouseBuster on 11.19.09 at 1:29 pm

Garth… Not sure if this was covered or not:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html

Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible “global economic collapse” over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction.

#56 George on 11.19.09 at 1:37 pm

cat call was the wrong choice. What do you call every second post “ooooh she’s so hot?” Also maybe I’m missing something and there should be a disclaimer for insensitivites

#57 jess on 11.19.09 at 1:40 pm

The advertising that I notice lately has shifted

Real estate agents are trying to sell more to ‘investors’ especially the private reits (apartments only in the pool)and the reasoning is that in bad times rents go up. Also noticed more of these “investments” are for rent rather than for sale….

#58 Bystander on 11.19.09 at 1:41 pm

This house looks like it could also serve as a bunker with those steel bars on the door and windows.

#59 shifty on 11.19.09 at 1:43 pm

Notice the bars on the windows and front door, probably an interesting hood. Would be half a mill. in some parts of Vancouver – location, location.

#60 Soju on 11.19.09 at 1:53 pm

Robert1,

Why don’t you tell us about how much rent money you’ve flushed down the toilet over the years. Just like how renters can choose where to live, us owners can choose what to buy based on our salary.

#61 Downsized and Delighted on 11.19.09 at 1:56 pm

I just got one of those nasty notices also Garth. I don’t understand yours though. If you just bought the POS, and you got an appraisal – you would have paid less than the appraisal wouldn’t you? Wouldn’t the amount you paid be the value of the property?

#62 taylor192 on 11.19.09 at 2:09 pm

#6 the truth

If you’re > 35yo, chances are you’ll be buried before paying that last mortgage payment.

I’m currently renting for 30% less than owning. Rent increases are < 2%. It'll take 20 years before my rent catches up to your mortgage, and your mortgage is at the lowest historical rates.

Care to guess how many years it'll take when rates reset higher?
Care to guess how much I'll save renting over those 20+ years?

#63 BAD on 11.19.09 at 2:09 pm


When people stand in line without knowing what the prices are to buy RE in a bidding frenzy…

On a Saturday morning in early November, Dave and Beverley Sheen lined up to buy a home in Caledon, an affluent town northwest of Toronto.

About one hundred people had lined up before the sales centre opened. The Sheens were the 23rd buyers in line.

Within a few frenzied hours the couple had purchased a 3,000-square-foot home for more than half a million dollars.

(…)

Dave Sheen says he was also concerned about debt, but had a game plan going in.

“We made sure that if rates go up we would be okay,” Sheen said. “The problem is, we didn’t know what the prices were before we got in the showroom, so we didn’t want to get carried away.”

Home sales up 84% in first half of month

…during recession… one has to seriously consider Garth’s idea of the (drone) runway.

We certainly live in interesting times.

#64 Michael on 11.19.09 at 2:11 pm

We’re not going to repeat the 70’s stagflation dance – it’s going to be rampant inflation. Government will pay 1/2 trillion deficit back with smaller dollars. Great news for money renters (mortgages), principal on the debt stays the same – pay back with smaller dollars.

#65 Weeping in Windsor on 11.19.09 at 2:23 pm

Garth, so glad to see you writing about MPAC.

Anyone who owns a house should check to make sure that their house has been assessed properly.
We checked out ours online at the MPAC website

http://www.mpac.ca

Found out that the assesment was incorrect.
Assessed for a fireplace we don’t have,
assessed for an additional bathroom we don’t have and the icing on the cake was being assessed for 720 sq. ft. finished area in the basement that we definitely don’t have.

EVERYONE make sure your property is assessed correctly!!!!

#66 steven rowlandson on 11.19.09 at 2:25 pm

Hello Garth.
As ticked off as I am at the extreme price of real estate relative to my pay. I am probably more offended by criminal governments that commit the crime of borrowing money and running up debts in the name of the taxpayer/ citizen.. Not too many governments don’t offend me and thats just the issue of financial management. Then there is the issue of moral leadership. Not alot of soundness there either….
Once apon a time a fellow named Jesus said something to the effect that if you have a corrupt diseased tree that isn’t bearing good fruit then you cut it down and burn it. And then you start over by planting a new one.

It very well could be that its time to quit making the same mistakes over and over again and start over from scratch. Get back to basics and real money.

Steven

#67 jess on 11.19.09 at 3:01 pm

1 in 14 in the third quarter of 2008

1 in 10 homeowners with mortgages at least one payment behind in the third quarter. (mortgage bankers ass.) highest rate since 1972

5m unemployed over the last year turned into 2m overdue loans

High-quality prime fixed-rate mortgages now represent the largest share of new foreclosures

expect peak in 2011.

U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Reach a Record High

DAVID STREITFELD
Published: November 19, 2009
New York Times

#68 Debtfree on 11.19.09 at 3:06 pm

nostradamus jr North van safest in the world lol . Have you ever heard of cherry point or comox . I think you should look carefully at a map .

#69 Ginger on 11.19.09 at 3:23 pm

Anyone unsure of what’s coming for the CND housing market should read this from Jonathan Tonge at http://americacanada.blogspot.com/2009/11/crea-and-nar-devil-in-lucifers-clothing.html He shows how eerily similar the RE press releases in the U.S. were to what’s being said by the CREA recently. Pretty creepy!

#70 nonplused on 11.19.09 at 3:28 pm

Doug Casey’s even got a kind word for Vancouver in his missive today (“highest real estate prices in the world”)

http://howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=11573

#71 TiredofWaiting on 11.19.09 at 3:43 pm

We’re house hunting (yes not a popular decision on this forum) and prices seem to definitely be up. Plus well priced nice houses in good areas are selling fast with multiple bids… Yes we were out-bid in Brantford… Go figure… The yucky ones are just sitting. If I honestly thought this was going to be better in the Spring we would try to wait… But after having waited a year, prices having gone up, and there’s no real end in sight (now that interest rates have once again been lowered.) We can’t wait any longer. The house we are renting is up for sale and we will have 60 days notice once it sells… The house we rented before this one had a crazy landlord. It’s easy to say rent when you’re not, or hey get your landlord to give you a five year lease if you don’t want to keep having to move, but in real life those aren’t viable options. It gets to the point when you get tired of moving, tired of renting… And REALLY tired of seeing housing prices going UP while you wait!

#72 David Bakody on 11.19.09 at 4:05 pm

From to-days news

Magazine releases annual ranking of Canada’s wealthiest people

Bottom line the rich are getting richer, dare we say who is made it possible. The poor and unemployed well of course there are more. Soon when housing bubble bursts the rich will make more and the poor well y’all know what will happen to them.

#73 PeckedToDeathByDucks on 11.19.09 at 4:17 pm

The Toronto Stock Market also is not as it seems.
Actually, it is small, excitable puppy that constantly follows the American stock market tick by tick.

When you think about it, is a perfect reflection of our national identity.

#74 $fromA$ia on 11.19.09 at 4:48 pm

Awe, the Fat Turd is manipulating the credit card laws.

He wants to meddle with things some more, he quotes,” level the playing field”.

Fat turd, when you keep playing with the economic machine, sooner or later your going to get your fingers caught.

The Fat turd also quotes that the economy will come back next year. Ya sure and he’s not telling us how bad inflation is going to be.

Canadians only know what they are told.

#75 kabloona on 11.19.09 at 5:21 pm

Yeah, Dr Housing Bubble is a great fun read….. ;-)

#76 T.O. Bubble Boy on 11.19.09 at 5:47 pm

Don’t worry… I’ve heard it’s different here:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/unemployment-fuels-us-foreclosures/article1370163/

Too bad “different” in Canada means that creditors will not just take the house, but all of your other assets!

#77 Two-thirds on 11.19.09 at 6:09 pm

Time to consider investing in pitchforks:

“Bank of Canada may eye permanent liquidity measures

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada may want to consider making available on a permanent basis a liquidity facility of the kind that was used temporarily during the financial crisis, researchers for the bank said on Thursday.”

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/breaking-news/article.aspx?cp-documentid=22659851

#78 Two-thirds on 11.19.09 at 6:22 pm

When even bankers admit that higher rates are around the corner, people better listen:

“Consumers need to prepare for higher mortgage rates next year: advisers

TORONTO – The Canadian housing market has seen a stronger and faster rebound from the recession than any other segment of the economy, due in large part to enticingly low mortgage rates.

But rates this low – 5.59 per cent for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage and 2.25 per cent for a five-year variable-rate mortgage at one bank – can’t last forever, and experts are advising borrowers to prepare for higher rates within the next 12 months.

“We have to realize those are emergency interest rates,” said CIBC economist Benjamin Tal.”

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/news/business-news/article.aspx?cp-documentid=22658352

#79 Zaza on 11.19.09 at 6:30 pm

I live near subway Eglinton West. Almost every evening we’re going for a walk. We see at least three houses that have “For Sale” signs for at least a month.

#80 Stretch from over yonder on 11.19.09 at 6:45 pm

Compton = East Vancouver

When you really compare what’s the difference?

#81 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.19.09 at 7:01 pm

The Happy Sex Tax is a good moniker for the HST, as we’re all gonna be royally screwed shortly. Nothing we can do (we were the dumbkopfs that elected them, after all) except lie there and think of England!

Oohhh to be a politician, lie and blame others!
——
#51 PeckedToDeathByDucks — “Buy! Buy! There’s never been a better opportunity. Hu laughs.”

A while back, I read how China was using their spare cash to shore up on gold / silver / platinum, commodities, mining operations which needed healthy cashflows to continue their operations, vacant (and cheap for sale) office and apt. buildings + other hard tangible assets over here.

Unlike the so-called ‘advanced’ western civilization, they take a much longer view of how things should, in all likelihood play out, which is probably why they lent Hong Kong out for a century or so, then took it back a number of years ago in much better financial and other shape than what it was before.

Let somebody else do all the dirty work, then let the good times roll.

#63 BAD — “. . . lined up to buy . . .”

Think back to ’89. That ended well, didn’t it? We sold our townhome in Sept. ’88 for a rather nice price / profit.

Except there were plenty of employment opportunities, then.

#65 Weeping in Windsor — Thanks for the link to MPAC.
——
It’s so fulfilling — War! Recall the US just moved a whole lotta troops into Columbia.

Look out, Iran (and The Rest Of Us).

#82 highway61 on 11.19.09 at 7:51 pm

It looks like many of us agree with
#64 Michael on 11.19.09 at 2:11 pm.

Care to comment?

Agree if you want, but a mega-dose of inflation’s not going to happen in time to save this real estate market. We are going into several years (maybe lots of them) of stagnant economic growth which will have energy-induced inflation, higher interest rates and the distinct odour of the ’70s. If you think hyperinflation is around the corner with $5,000 gold and endlessly higher real estate prices, well, enjoy that planet. It won’t be this one. — Garth

#83 john m on 11.19.09 at 8:02 pm

Interesting times……….and damned depressing for future generations when we watch how it is being handled. I’m pretty much convinced things will never again be the same in North America—while we hear daily how much better things are getting and the recession is over?? All i can contribute is=take a look around..things really are not getting better..manufacturing is folding up at an alarming rate…jobs are scarce…..people are buying overpriced real estate at an alarming rate,accumulating debt for a lifetime in a country that at this time with a dismal future in the world marketplace ……..i sure hope for the best for everyone ..but i can not understand the motivation…..and lets not forget the oil companies who played a big hand in the down fall of many Canadian enterprises………..who are now gradually raising prices with no justification bringing more disaster to many faltering companies…….this never seems to be even worth mention in our political system……….IMO we are all in for a rude awakening come next spring.

#84 BAD on 11.19.09 at 8:05 pm


‘Bout houses…

“You should own a house to provide shelter,” says Kirby. “In a way it’s not an investment, and it’s not part of your investment portfolio. It’s really just a living expense. By owning a house you are prepaying rent.”

Regarding your house as shelter doesn’t mean you need live in a hovel. Go ahead and buy something comfortable. But view it as an extravagance rather than as a retirement account.

How Much Real Estate Should You Own?

It is a bit disconcerting that in Canada people actually do invest in hovels.
BTW, my bunker, even if extravagant, is not an investment but by definition a shelter.

#85 confused in to on 11.19.09 at 8:11 pm

# 39

I couldn,t agree with you more!!!!

#86 jess on 11.19.09 at 8:17 pm

why are u.s treasuries negative

#87 $fromA$ia on 11.19.09 at 8:31 pm

“If you think hyperinflation is around the corner with $5,000 gold…”-Garth

Agreed Garth but I am sure we’ll be somewhere in between with real estate taking a hit of probably 35% min. Don’t forget that RE has gone up as much as 200%.

#88 Piccaso on 11.19.09 at 8:35 pm

From Bob Trumans blog….

Average Residential Mortgage Lending Rate (5 year)

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/sel_hist.html

I averaged all the numbers from the ‘January’ column, and came up with an average mortgage rate of 8.9% over the last 58 years.

#89 Northeast Canuck on 11.19.09 at 8:46 pm

For anyone who was planning on buying a new property in BC and avoid the HST (OK probably not many on this forum), you’ve missed the boat because as of midnight last night we have entered into the “transitional” period for the HST. The headlines today were all about the higher threshold but what the papers seem to have missed is the fine print. From today, if you buy a property that would be subject to HST, if you do not move in before July 2010 then you have to pay the HST. Not likely to happen if you are buying off plan! If you bought that property yesterday, then you have “grandparenting” rights and don’t have to pay HST. As for what happens if you buy a property that is supposed to be ready by June 2010 but then gets delayed… Who knows!

#90 CaliforniaMom on 11.19.09 at 8:52 pm

Long time reader and fan, first time poster… I’m a Canadian ex-pat living in L.A. county. Garth, I’m inclined to think you posted a Compton example as a joke. For comparison purposes, I cannot think of a neighbourhood in a Canadian city that could possibly be “compared” with Compton… I think there is another side to the L.A./So Cal real estate story that isn’t getting the coverage it deserves. The “demand” areas have seen recent price declines, but are still sickeningly expensive with crappy old starter homes selling, yes selling for $1 million. I think Canadians should be aware that demand areas will hold up better in a real estate collapse than sketchy locations. In a bubble, people will buy anything, anywhere. But when the bubble bursts, location is everything again.

Not too many people ‘got it’ but the Compton property was used as an example of the irrational nature of people when it comes to real estate. Yes, it is a trashy house in a desperate hood, which makes the price history a template of the delusion among us. Your comments are solid. Glad to have your L.A. perspective. — Garth

#91 Jeff Smith on 11.19.09 at 9:45 pm

And sadly, I don’t think the government can do much about rising gas prices because they benefit directly from it. Every liter of gas we buy the government get a large slice of the cost of that liter. So being in-debted as they are I don’t think they will step in to lower the price to make it easier for us but harder for them. And I agree with you that we are in for very difficult times ahead. Oh well.

> #83 john m on 11.19.09 at 8:02 pm

> Interesting times……….and damned depressing for

[stuffs deleted]

>motivation…..and lets not forget the oil companies
>who played a big hand in the down fall of many
>Canadian enterprises………..who are now gradually
>raising prices with no justification bringing more
>disaster to many faltering companies…….this never
>seems to be even worth mention in our political
>system……….IMO we are all in for a rude awakening
>come next spring.

#92 Kurt on 11.19.09 at 10:00 pm

#90 California Mom & Garth – honest to god, I thought the Compton property was for comparison to the previous day’s Winnipeg property, and the story was just as you say, Mom. I’m not familiar with the particular part of Winnipeg that property is located in, but there’s places in that town I’m afraid to walk in the *daytime*. Maybe you don’t have the bloods and the crips because the gangs are all aboriginal, and the corpses pile up more slowly because its harder to get handguns, but the lesson is the same – quality properties hold their value better. Don’t let the bubble railroad you into buying just any old piece of crap.

#93 canadianoil on 11.19.09 at 10:16 pm

Mr. Turner

When are you going to stop comparing real estate prices in the USA to those in Canada?

Both nations rely upon one another for trade.
However, the idea that Canadians are going to up and leave their home and native land for the big bad USA is simply absurd.

On a side note, I am pleased that I did not take your advice to sell my B.C. home two years ago.

Although the appreciation in the property is not realized until the sale, I am comfortable in the fact that my mortgage is small and manageable.

Be careful what you preach, Mr. Turner.
Some simple souls who follow this blog, just may take your word for gospel.

Sounds like you’d know. — Garth

#94 CaliforniaMom on 11.19.09 at 10:41 pm

P.S. – That same trashy house in a well-located, good family neighbourhood in L.A. with great public schools would be listed at $800,000 opening bid for a foreclosure. The bubble is just starting to deflate in many parts of L.A.

#95 Popeye The Sailor Man on 11.19.09 at 11:14 pm

#71 Tired of waiting (Nov 18th)

Your not the only one, we decided to move from Vancouver Island to Spruce Grove in Aug 08 the new updated kitchen was 9 weeks late, and we were going to list in Sept 1st but listed Nov 6th, sold after price reductions for much less, “get ahead of the curve down, or follow it down farther later and end up selling for less” not bad advice at the time, but the rules changed interest rates dropped fast, the bubble was patched.

I read this blog daily informed my wife what was going on so we waited for the shoe to drop, talk of a faux spring and better prices in the fall gave us hope. We rented a small house with a fence for our dog and kids, over paying but it was the only thing we could get with a dog. Now I think the drop maybe slower than we first thought, and we don’t want to wait for 2-5 years. So we looked at houses from June to October and was really picky.

Now we found one a 2005 2 story house, 2100sf+ unfinished basement, larger lot, will fit my truck and van in the garage and on a quite cul-de-sac.

It is 4.3X Avg earnings for spruce grove @430,000 we are putting 50% down, 112,000 fixed @4% (600/month) and a 100,000 HELOC @ P+1. ($185 I only/month) Total payment ($785) is half of the rent for us. and we can pay off the HELOC as we get extra cash.

I’m 40 We are a single income family ($72,000+OT) with 2 special needs kids aged 5 and 1.5. We are aware that things may(will) drop, but we hope not to much. We will be OK, but worry for others.

My hope is it deflates slowly so those of us that had to buy in this crazy time will have time to adjust, and those of you that can wait get in at a price you find reasonable. Part of me hopes prices drop a bit then stabilize or stagnate for a bit because I have lots of nieces and nephews just finishing high school and some just finishing university, and they will need to buy some thing in the coming years, Housing should be affordable either rent or a mortgage and they shouldn’t have to pay for the baby boomers retirement. Yes mom that means you! ;-)

#96 Gord In Vancouver on 11.19.09 at 11:25 pm

#80 Stretch from over yonder


Compton = East Vancouver

When you really compare what’s the difference?
_______________________________________

You’ve obviously never been to Compton – my buddy and I nearly crapped in our pants when we drove through there. East Vancouver is much better than Compton.

#97 JoeCalgary on 11.19.09 at 11:44 pm

A quick graphic of what’s happening in US:

http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html

#98 Calgary_rip_off on 11.19.09 at 11:46 pm

#71 TiredofWaiting:

It is easier to issue a recommendation when you arent involved, an owner saying to a friend they should rent. Something uncomfortable to consider is things can always be better, or worse. The key is balance. Over the long term, does buying now lead to balance at all levels. Unfortunately buying now leads to short term security at the price of having long term insecurity. This is why many renters wait. Keep in mind that life is a waiting game. Keep in mind in terms of time perception, that when you are in a situation in which time seems slow, and you do nothing, just wait, once the situation is over, it seemed to have gone by in no time at all, whereas if you did a lot of busy work trying to buy a house, the time then seemed to go by quickly, but looking back there are many memories and the time went by slowly. So really what you are battling is perception, not actuality. By accepting the wait, you are empowered now and in the future because you are not committed. As a home owner a person is firmly committed. Then there is oftentimes the backpeddling of justification which seems the mainstream, especially in Calgary, the “silver lining”. Only does waiting for things stop when a person ends their time living and breathing. Something to consider if you are looking for security in buying a house. Look elsewhere for peace of mind. Buy only on logic and whether the finances add up, otherwise wait.

#99 Keith in Calgary on 11.20.09 at 12:01 am

Compton…….well here in Calgary you have a few select SE areas that qualify.

#100 AxeHead on 11.20.09 at 12:18 am

A lot in Red Deer Alberta recently sold to a developer for $475k. It’s a pie lot backing onto a field. I bought my first house here in 1985 for $62k. Something is wrong with this picture.

#101 InvestorsFriend on 11.20.09 at 12:41 am

Number 54 Keith in Calgary has it right when he says:

I’d rather carry $100K at 15% than $300K at 5%………

It may sound crazy but consider…

Both scenarios cost $15,000 per year in interest. (initially)

Now imagine that both pay $10,000 per year on principal (paying above the required minimum).

Now after 10 years our $100k mortgage is paid off. (Well quicker than that if you consider the amount going to interest also drops fairly quickly).

After 10 years of $10k on principal our $300k mortgage is at $250k. And interest per year is still at $12,500!!

The point is these jumbo mortgages are almost immune to being paid down quickly.

In the days of $100k mortgages (common 15 years ago when a decent house in an Edmonton suberb could be had for $100 to $150.) you could realistically get it paid off in a decade.

Fast forward to today and the same quality house is closer to $300 to $400 and wages are up maybe 50% at most.

So in 1996 you scapped together an extra $5k and it was a nice chunk off your mortgage. Today your new home buyer maybe makes 50% more and so he scraps up $7500 but that hardly makes a noticeable dent in a $300 k mortage. So he probaly does not even bother…

Welcome to indentured debt slavery. You’re gonna serve pretty much your full 35 year term! no early parole!!

People wished for low interest rates. Well all the affordability benefit of that got captured in house selling prices and debtors are in a far worse position than they ever were at 8% interest rates.

hilarious isn’t it??

#102 JoeCalgary on 11.20.09 at 12:50 am

Roubini’s forecast is gloomy:

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2009/11/15/2009-11-15_the_worst_is_yet_to_come_unemployed_americans_should_hunker_down_for_more_job_lo.html

#103 Wealthy Renter on 11.20.09 at 12:55 am

“But I’d say that will change by the Spring, when the ground’s soft enough to start work on the drone runway.”

Very funny. From squirrel pens to bunkers to drone runways, you do maintain a sense of humour in rather unfunny times. BUT, can’t you be like all of the rest of the well-to-do survivalists in Caledon? They just want target ranges, but nooo, you want a runway. I hate to see what that does to your next special assessment. No complaints then.

This blog is very informative on many levels. I am looking forward to the next book.

#104 Terry on 11.20.09 at 1:16 am

Excellent quote around the 23 – 24 min mark.

http://maxkeiser.com/2009/11/19/video-the-keiser-report-markets-finance-scandal/

#105 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.20.09 at 1:20 am

A good description of sheeple by Sir Winston Churchill: “Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened.” — Sir Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965)
——
3:34 clip of Vaccines 1; Vaccines 2 “The issue here is not that this Priest is suspicious of the government, but that so many people in general are! Clearly, the world’s political systems have lost the trust of their people. In other words, the US is not the only failing state.” and Vaccines 3
——
Negative T-Bills
——
So there! “This site will from now on be under the IAEA. And for your information there will be another inspection tomorrow of this site in order to make sure that we are fully cooperating,” Soltanieh told reporters in Vienna on Wednesday.
——
There doesn’t necessarily need to be an uprising against the govt. goofballs or any of that (yet) — Alternative? Which is why ‘net control is being spoken of.

Recall the two links I placed last night or the night before, both on ‘Net Control? More — Net Control
——
US unemployment figures.
——
Remember that laptop that was stolen from an Iranian official in Tehran yesterday? Well, it’s conveniently reappeared! (Although there were no secrets on Dimona.)
——
In Mumbai a while back, the talk after the bombings was the US was involved. Well, guess who loves to stir up trouble — CIA / Mossad

#106 rp on 11.20.09 at 2:36 am

The US has millions of people living in homes but not paying the mortgage. The banks won’t even recognize the default because then they’d blow up (mark-to-market accounting is gone). This has stemmed the tide of price declines in the US and built up a massive inventory of future foreclosed homes.

Canadian banks have no incentive to do this. They can foreclose and sell promptly and bill CMHC for the loss. So I expect our market to head straight down as the jobs situation deteriorates.

#107 Mike (authentic) on 11.20.09 at 11:09 am

Gord in Vancouver “East Vancouver is much better than Compton.”

I’ve been there and I have to agree, East Van is closer to Torrance than Compton.

#108 Sanchez on 11.20.09 at 11:10 am

This house reminds me of this video from NWA…’Straight Outta Compton’ …I feel so gangster:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MrQtOoQRpc

#109 Michael on 11.20.09 at 1:05 pm

re: #82 “If you think hyperinflation is around the corner with $5,000 gold and endlessly higher real estate prices, well, enjoy that planet. It won’t be this one. — Garth”

Here on this planet, governments are using quantitative easing to control bond yields; low interest rates to prop up equities. But, currencies around the globe are being devalued – hyperinflation is a currency event and it’s quickly spreading worldwide. Gold’s recent surge indicates fear in the currency markets. If there is a Forex crisis, our debate is over.

Hyper-inflation? Read this. — Garth

#110 Michael on 11.20.09 at 7:28 pm

Respectfully, Japan has experienced deflation pressure for the past 15 years, could counter with Zimbabwe’s hyper-inflation, neither argument is very practical for this discourse.

#111 Michael on 11.24.09 at 5:34 pm

re: Hyper-inflation? Read this. — Garth

Ironically, it was in Japan that Bernanke mentioned that the U.S. could print dollars thereby deflation could be avoided. At best, stagflation, worst case hyperinflation.