And baby makes zero

AEN1
What, me worry? Housing will sizzle in '10: CHMC

sellers1

These sellers were touched by a video from potential buyers featuring their baby signing an offer. But they sold for more to somebody else. Money can’t buy ya love – or a functioning economy.

News hit on Sunday house prices in Australia are still rising, despite slightly higher interest rates. This should surprise nobody. The Australian government’s been giving people the equivalent of $19,000 each to buy a home. In the US, Washington’s been paying new homebuyers $8,000 each, a part of its stimulus package.

So much government money’s been spent everywhere that public debt has exploded to historic highs. Sure as hell has happened here, with a $56 billion deficit. Stateside, there’ll now be about 20 years of trillion-dollar budget shortfalls.

But here’s the thing. Not working.

For example, in the past three days -  the bankruptcy of the massive finance company, CIT. That means all its shareholders are wiped out, the $2.3 billion CIT got as a public bailout is lost and tens of billions more will vaporize.

Ford Canada has shuttered an entire car assembly plant south of London, in St. Thomas. It’s a bitter blow to 1,500 families, and another stake in the heart of the real estate market of southwestern Ontario.

The latest economic numbers for the country suck. In fact, they showed contraction in September – negative growth – after being dead the month before. At the same time, the inflation number for the last three reporting periods has had a minus sign in front of it. That’s deflation, which is something Ottawa thought $56 billion could chase away.

These, and a host of other indicators, are telling us government is falling into a trap of its own making. When people are paid to buy houses and cars and do home renos, when they’re handed borrowed money at rates close to zero and when screwed-up, failed companies are thrown free cash, how can anything be normal? Supply and demand is fried. People make really, really bad decisions just because stuff is free. Asset bubbles form, and stimulus-riddled economic indicators start to lie.

This is one reason the stock market’s probably in for a wild ride in November. The slide in Japan Sunday night followed on the heels of a substantial loss on Wall Street Friday. Increasingly investors are arriving at the same thought: there’s no way corporate earnings are going to sustain this ride.

So I’d say if you were part of the 30% market bonanza of the last few months, this might be the time to hit the sidelines. Actually, last week would have been better.

As for the bigger picture – jobs, real estate, iPhone sales – I can only repeat what I’ve been saying here for some time now. There are consequences to the actions being taken. They’ll include higher taxes, higher rates, less growth, falling prices and a housing correction. The people most at risk are those who have taken the bait, borrowed their brains out, bought into an asset bubble and believed a crisis bred of too much credit could be solved by more loans.

Buckle up.

When babies make offers, I know what’s coming.

151 comments ↓

#1 Sanchez on 11.01.09 at 11:50 pm

Don’t you know that the baby is a prodigy investment banker easily earning $350K p.a. at the young age of 2 years? Come on! Get with it.

#2 DaBull on 11.01.09 at 11:52 pm

Dow Jones futures up 41 points @ 23:11 PM.

#3 4real on 11.01.09 at 11:54 pm

Is it any wonder those sellers are grinning ear to ear. Some fools (and their baby) just paid them 350,000 dollars more than they paid for their house only 10 years ago.

All I can do is sit on the sidelines and shake my head in disbelief.

#4 DB on 11.02.09 at 12:13 am

Must be the fluoride in the water.

#5 Jack the Lad on 11.02.09 at 12:50 am

Is there something in the drinking water in Toronto?

Either these people know something I don’t know, or these people have just totally lost it, or maybe they’re just so rich they don’t care…

#6 Wealthy Renter on 11.02.09 at 12:51 am

The level of absurdity in the baby makes an offer article could only be matched by reading a Kafka novel while smoking crack. Wong is using the stories to pump up market and create a sense of urgency, but I wonder if it makes even the most ardent real estate bull stop and take a second look at the market.

The article reminds me of this famous WSJ article where the owners put feed the squirrel clauses in their contracts.

Of course, this was the beginning of the end of the boom in the USA. If you take a minute or two to read the article, it is surprising that the prices quoted for these plumb areas in California are somewhat equivalent (and even less) than the current price in Toronto. Heck, a 20’ townhome in an industrial in-fill area can cost $600K in Toronto.

#7 MR on 11.02.09 at 12:53 am

this is getting ridiculous!!

#8 Onemorething on 11.02.09 at 1:05 am

The AUS RE market suffered it first drop last year in over 10 years as this market ballooned significantly. The buyer incentives were put in place so that the country could in fact protect any negative setiment.

Numbers are up and appear to keep climbing given the rate increase and people jumping in before another one.

It’s a great game guaranteed to work – FOR NOW!

This is pure bubble inflation once again.

You can bet this is what the CAN government will do once the bubble pops. Canada just continues to follow the US and will.

The problem is again CANADA unlike any other country in the world, never found a bottom as the US put an artificial one under the market earlier this year stopping any first leg down correction in Canada.

Canada will get hammered once and for all and it will be a nightmare, you can count on it.

Get liquid, get on the sidelines or your done!

#9 ralph on 11.02.09 at 1:26 am

“If they were equal or even a few thousand dollars off, it likely would have made the difference,” says Cohen. “We still feel guilty we didn’t pick the cute baby.”

Yea, right he felt guilty……..for about two seconds. Most of these people should be institutionalized. God help us all.

#10 Ahpauled in Victoria on 11.02.09 at 1:27 am

Garth,

Was shocked to see our new bridge in Victoria (Johnson Street Bridge) is being paid for by a loan from the CMHC Stimulus Fund. Have you heard of this fund and can you shed some light on it? CMHC is so flush with new homeowner cash that they can fund stimulus projects?

#11 Ruraldude on 11.02.09 at 1:30 am

Just read an interesting article about agricultural land in the US. Since 1910 land has inflated on average in 100 years for a return of 3.84% compounded annually. In the last 100 years there was 2 land price crashes 1921 and mid 1980’s. Right now we are in a 22 year run up in ag land prices mainly cause of good commodity prices. This article also said average farm debt in US was $9 for every $100 dollars of assets. Pretty impressive I must admit. I think the farm debt in Can as a percentage is higher.
The reason for this tidbit of info is cause I was a casualty of the 1980’s crash. Farm land values where I live went from $1200 per acre down to $300 per acre. Pretty much 50 percent of the farmers in my area (younger upstarts) were toast.
So I follow this post every day and I do see a wreck coming. I feel helpless and I understand how these greater fools are getting caught up in the frenzy. Everyone wants to inflate there assets (farmers included). It gives you more leveraging power and can improve your life financially Only if you don’t get caught short or on the wrong side of the curve.
I do appreciate this blog and would be interested in hearing from some of the rural people out there. Maybe we can all learn from other peoples past experiences and hopefully prevent some from making the same mistakes in the future.

#12 Elle on 11.02.09 at 1:31 am

Here come those consequences Garth,

“Currently the Apocalyptic Bubble that is striking fear in
Canada is of the Real Estate variety”

http://money.ca.msn.com/investing/deirdre-mcmurdy/article.aspx?cp-documentid=22457862

“Is the Canadian Housing Market dangerously over-valued?”

I think I’ll just go and ……..buckle up now!

elle

#13 TaxHaven on 11.02.09 at 2:01 am

Gee Garth…you’re beginning to sound like an Austrian economist!

“…people make really, really bad decisions when stuff is free!”

That’s called a misallocation of capital. It happens when central banks are able to (effectively) PRINT money and loan it out at sub-market rates, causing people to make erroneous assumptions about current and upcoming business conditions.

Yes, wait for it…it’s coming. Unemployment. Higher taxes. Reduced government “services”. Bankruptcies.

But it might also bring less government, lower house and asset prices, lower consumer prices, and lower wage bills for employers.

We’ve seen DECADES of punishment for savers, of peanut interest rates, inflation and asset price bubbles. Having been a frugal investor all those long, dark years though , I look forward to my upcoming shopping trip and a chance to buy into the housing market way, way down there. Unless one is a borrower, has a negative net worth, an insecure job or an expensive lifestyle to maintain, people should WELCOME deflation!

It CAN mean higher living standards…

#14 Mike (Authentic) on 11.02.09 at 4:56 am

“…the bankruptcy of the massive finance company, CIT.”

– 2.3 Billion of taxpayer money via TARP funds
– 7,300 employees
– Started in 1908
– Fortune 500 company

CIT’s Specialty Finance business consists of home lending, student loans, vendor financing, small business loans, small/mid ticket product leasing and global insurance services.

CIT was a leading lender to small, medium sized commercial and mom & pop business, where do these people go now for a loan? What happens to the 80 billion in loans already held by these small businesses?

CIT falling is a huge blow for the small guy.

Mike

#15 Mike (Authentic) on 11.02.09 at 5:05 am

CIT Bankruptcy #2…

Just wanted to put it into further perspective..

CIT Group is the 5th LARGEST corporate bankruptcy ever filed in the USA after General Motors Corporation.

Largest bankruptcies
#4 General Motors Corporation $82,300,000,000
#5 CIT Group $71,019,200,000
#6 Enron $63,392,000,000
#8 Chrysler $39,300,000,000

http://www.google.ca/finance?q=NYSE%3A+CIT
Shares fall 50% in Sunday pre-market.

CIT Press release: http://www.businesswire.com/news/cit/20091101005053/en

Mike

#16 David Bakody on 11.02.09 at 7:11 am

And while we had our trick or treats ….. this happened in the still of the night to the US Nation Debt …. it is now over $12 TRILLION! and counting.

– $ 12,025,514,842,462

But fear not here in Canada our Economy is as strong as the Canadian Shield …. Remember?

H1N1 … here in Halifax …. not good news, it is a total
belham at our IWK children’s hospital as I was told in an early morning e mail.

Also a well known coffee shop closed on the waterfront and a Irish Pub and a food shop and a Tim Horton’s up the street ….. next?

Our Economy is as strong as the Canadian Shield …. where and when did we hear that? Oh yes during the fixed election date election.

#17 cashman on 11.02.09 at 7:29 am

Well we have just seen another family take the bait of low interest rates and bid themselves into debt for the rest of their life. Smart move I’d say, not really. What are they going to do if hubby looses job and they can’t make those payments on the car, the tv and the house? Is baby going to make another video to the next buyers to take this house? stay tuned.

#18 jess on 11.02.09 at 7:57 am

“establishing regulations requiring Canadian banks to increase their capital ratios”
covered bonds – on the balance sheet ?

=
“so what is the point of bailouts”

What Does Velocity of Money Mean?
A term used to describe the rate at which money is exchanged from one transaction to another. Investopedia explains Velocity of Money
Velocity is important for measuring the rate at which money in circulation is used for purchasing goods and services. This helps investors gauge how robust the economy is. It is usually measured as a ratio of GNP to a country’s total supply of money

#19 pbrasseur on 11.02.09 at 7:59 am

“So I’d say if you were part of the 30% market bonanza of the last few months, this might be the time to hit the sidelines.” – Garth

Yeah right, lets play at timing the market…. I’ve seen you give better advice!

I’d say just make sure you own good companies in good financial health. Then just BE PATIENT.

Patient for what? When markets rise by a third, the smart folks take profits. Isn’t that why you invest? — Garth

#20 DrC on 11.02.09 at 8:00 am

The Australian housing bubble has been galloping in strength for over a decade. The Federal first home owners grant of 7K/14K/21K (various manifestations) and State grants as well were simply red-herrings to divert the masses attention from the incestuous relationship between RE, builders and governments. The real cause of the housing bubble in Australia has been the triple-play combination of negative gearing (you deduct the cost of interest for your “investment property” against your salaried income), depreciation (you deduct the cost of “repairs” i.e. renovations against your salaried income) and capital gains tax exemptions (after massive taxpayer subsidies throughout the life of the mortgage, when you sell you don’t pay all the tax on your profit).

The Australian middle class responded appropriately to these incentives by buying “IPs” in droves. About 20% of Australian households bought an “investment” property. I know plenty of people who could only afford to “get on the property ladder” by continuing to rent, or live with aging parents, and buy an “investment” property as their first house. Result? Long before Case-Schiller became a household word in Nth America, Australians had bid up house prices 300%, driving rental yields from long-term sustainable levels of 9-10% down to 2-3%.

Bread-and-circuses housing grants of a few thousand dollars is an afterthought in this bubble of loss and deception.

How will it end? Successive evil neo-conservative socialist governments in Australia (Liberal? Labour? Indistinguishable policies and attitudes) have continuously told the Great Unwashed that they are rich, safe, secure, look how much your homes are worth! The bust must be avoided at all cost. So I don’t know how it will play out. Federal government will do all in it’s power to stop it fallling. Will it be enough?

Finally, we don’t have Case-Schiller in Australia – we have the worst property data in the world. Inconsistent, multiply collected, privately released, all controlled by the Real Estate industry. So on the same day you see headlines about housing prices leaping ahead, you see page 17 tiny print one column articles that new housing starts have basically stopped. http://www.theage.com.au/business/new-home-sales-slump-20091029-hm1a.html

Um, so maybe it’s just that the only houses selling are higher priced?

#21 jess on 11.02.09 at 8:08 am

Ah the Dark Matter 1998 to 2006. Eight years to turn on the lights!….and what about that clearinghouse.

“Bank of America, which is not named in the indictment, entered a Justice Department amnesty program in January 2007 that grants it leniency in exchange for aiding prosecutors…

$2.8 trillion municipal bond market that more than doubled in just over a decade, public corruption, officials’ mistakes and lack of disclosure cost taxpayers as much as $6 billion a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Need for Transparency

The kinds of fraudulent practices that Rubin and his Los Angeles-based firm are accused of by federal prosecutors and the IRS help transfer to private hands some of the $36 billion-a- year tax benefit the U.S. Treasury confers on state and local governments and non-profit agencies when they borrow. That money could be used for roads, school books and fire trucks during the worst recession since the Great Depression.

“We need a worldview change about transparency and that includes municipal finance,” said Elizabeth Warren, chairwoman of the Congressional Oversight Panel for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, in an interview with Bloomberg last month.

The indictment alleges that Rubin and two of his employees orchestrated artificially low winning bids and “intentionally losing bids.” They face five to 20 years in prison if convicted, and CDR could be fined more than $100 million.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=auHFr7xQK9lg&pos=10

#22 mooncake on 11.02.09 at 8:16 am

The fat lady is singing. The clock is about to strike midnight, so turn out the lights out. This home ownership cinderella party is about over.
Retail stores are praying for last crazy rebound in holiday shopping to survive which there will be none here. More layoffs in the new year. On related note, I’ve overheard a few coworkers said they’re spending a lot less money this holiday for gifts (and these people still have job).

#23 El Rojo on 11.02.09 at 8:31 am

The end is nigh. Get very liquid and hang on!

#24 young & foolish on 11.02.09 at 8:39 am

TaxHaven is right … Garth does sound like an Austrian economist!

The long cycle of expansion through credit has come to a natural end and must be allowed to die before the economy can begin to grow again. Vested interests will get sideswiped when phoenix-like growth embraces new values. What will happen to all that track housing, strip malls, big box stores, economic activity based on thoughtless conspicuous consumption?

But unfortunately, most people don’t want a real free market economy without bailouts and lobby groups and ‘useless’ government intervention/regulation. They only say they do when times are good, but when the market contracts they run under the protective wing of mama (government).

What’s a government to do?

#25 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.02.09 at 8:54 am

Thank God we do not live amongst them!

#26 Nostradamus jr. on 11.02.09 at 8:57 am

“””But the bigger issue here – the societal issue – is how crooked the entire marketplace has become for securities in general. Not just for end-user mortgages but also for securitizations, municipal bonds (as outlined in this article) – virtually everything!

“We need a worldview change about transparency and that includes municipal finance,” said Elizabeth Warren, chairwoman of the Congressional Oversight Panel for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, in an interview with Bloomberg last month.

Indeed. But so far we see zero indication that we’re going to get it. Municipal finance is just one tiny piece of the scam-ridden world of financial back-room deals.

Witness the mortgage-backed bond business, where firms such as Goldman Sachs have admitted shorting the very mortgage-backed securities they were packaging and selling!”””

….Garth….it is about time you discredit “investing one’s money in the banks, stocks, commodities or fiat currencies.”

None of your readers trusts any of the above…So why do you suggest they should trust them?

At least investing in one’s home(Real Estate) is “tangible”..you see, touch and smell one’s investment.

…However….”Location, Location, Location” still plays the utmost significance.

Nostradamus jr.

#27 jess on 11.02.09 at 9:09 am

stimulus and worker programs seem to have something in common

“The government doesn’t track when – or if – foreign workers leave the country. Nor does anyone track the number of those laid off. But it does advise employers to lay off foreign workers before Canadian citizens or permanent residents.

“We’ve got a growing illegal workforce,” says Yessy Byl, an expert on the Temporary Foreign Worker Program in Alberta, the province that experienced the biggest increase of foreign workers in the past three years. “It’s growing by leaps and bounds.

“You’ve got a hugely growing group of destitute people,” adds Byl, who is also a labour lawyer with the Alberta Federation of Labour. “They have to work to survive.”

Byl says the worst is yet to come: many of the 365,000 foreign workers who came to Canada in 2007 and 2008 will see their permits expire next year.

In a 2007 report, the RCMP estimated the number of undocumented workers in Canada ranged from 200,000 to 500,000. Toronto is widely seen as having the largest concentration.”

the record.com

#28 pbrasseur on 11.02.09 at 9:20 am

# 19

“Patient for what? When markets rise by a third, the smart folks take profits. Isn’t that why you invest?” — Garth

No, that’s what sheeps and speculators do: bet their money based on what they think others are going to do. More often than not they end up losing.

Investing means placing your money into something which pays income or which intrinsic value increases (for real) because productivity grows. Stock price will follow, enventually…

But companies don’t double their business overnight, it takes time.

But don’t take it from me ask Warren Buffet…. Or go back to reading Ben Graham…

Ever heard of technical analysis? — Garth

#29 it's covered on 11.02.09 at 9:22 am

The stimulus already taking care of all the potential brankruptcies in US. 1 Trillion $ is a lot of money for a stimulus plan. Another 1 T will fix every nerves in your body. Everybody will get the best doctor in the house.
CIT will be back in biz in no time. More videos of babies running the banks to come. Ah they are so cute all forgiven. Put them in the Shark Tank.

#30 guava.ca on 11.02.09 at 9:31 am

Interesting times:

http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/newsfeatures/article/719628–watchdog-opens-door-to-lower-realty-costs

#31 dd on 11.02.09 at 9:45 am

#26 Nostradamus jr.

“….Garth….it is about time you discredit “investing one’s money in the banks, stocks, commodities or fiat currencies.” … “tangible”…

I thought commodities were tangible? If you are so big on China then commodities (oil) is the place to be. If you don’t believe in bank why is Vancouver going to become the financial capital of NA?

U do double talk.

#32 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.02.09 at 9:51 am

#18 jess

Not sure what the ‘velocity’ of money is but I can certainly tell you the knowing the velocity of an English Swallow is! may be more important. But be careful you have the right bird?

#33 knucklewalker on 11.02.09 at 9:54 am

#11 Rural dude

I as well would be very very interested in the rural real estate market (farm/ranch ground). I am also from a rural background and I have thus far steadily avoided land ownership…leased ground…for livestock.
I have been hoping to acquire a “doomstead” but as I have been living and working as a professional in Calgary all land in southern Alberta and BC is priced in the stratosphere. Unfortunately I can see massive money flows beginning to move out of the financial markets and into safe havens (PMs, Land, resources generally) this may maintain and even drastically escalate land prices nationwide even in light of collapsing urban housing and commercial real estate.
Any thoughts anyone??

#34 Evangeline on 11.02.09 at 10:00 am

#26 Nostradamus Jr.

if you’re going to quote several grafs from a Karl Denninger post you could at least do him, and us, the courtesy of providing a link to the post, or at the very least acknowledge him as author.

” Is it ALL a Scam? (BAC)

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1567-Is-It-ALL-A-Scam-BAC.html

((But the bigger issue here – the societal issue – is how crooked the entire marketplace has become for securities in general. Not just for end-user mortgages but also for securitizations, municipal bonds (as outlined in this article) – virtually everything!

“We need a worldview change about transparency and that includes municipal finance,” said Elizabeth Warren, chairwoman of the Congressional Oversight Panel for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, in an interview with Bloomberg last month.”

Indeed. But so far we see zero indication that we’re going to get it. Municipal finance is just one tiny piece of the scam-ridden world of financial back-room deals.

Witness the mortgage-backed bond business, where firms such as Goldman Sachs have admitted shorting the very mortgage-backed securities they were packaging and selling! …”))

#35 Evangeline on 11.02.09 at 10:17 am

((Patient for what? When markets rise by a third, the smart folks take profits. Isn’t that why you invest? — Garth))

There are quite a few financial advisers who still advocate ‘buy and hold’. IMV that is a totally wrong strategy for this market. … b&h works best in an inflationary bull environment. In a deflationary bear market, the strategy that works best is ‘be nimble’ … take advantage of rallies along the way, grab profits whereever you can, and don’t be tempted into buying trash by loss leaders in the form of meagre dividends.

#36 Daystar on 11.02.09 at 10:26 am

It is a rotten time to be in the markets. Sage advice to stay on the sidelines this month to see how it all shakes out. Right now, oil and gold still look good. I still expect the greenback to fall, still expect oil to rise… but the rest? Stay away.

There’s too much bad news right now. No profit… no good stories to tell… too much risk with everything from H1N1 to governmental orgies of debt to asset bubbles begging to be popped to market run ups with nothing other than speculation driving it, speculation that has had a recent damper (.39% hike in 5 year mortgages by the chartered’s, an effective 7% increase on 5 year mortgage payments).

GDP is negative. Still! The recession hasn’t ended!! The dollar is still high and the media? Don’t expect the media to be supportive of a booming market, its just not there. Common sense suggests a correction is due but the numbers are hard to predict and I know the urge as an investor to stick with stocks we like. Each stock has a story that carries with it a timeline of events from discovery to financing and production and right now, as good as some stories might seem, when the environment is against you and 95% of all stocks can drop signifigantly and quickly, its hard to stay in the batters box and go long.

Time for a break.

#37 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 10:43 am

#19 pbrasseur

You are wise.

Market timing is for people who like to lose money.

Only if you like to buy high and sell low. We are likely entering a range-bound market. It will deathly for the ETF crowd. — Garth

#38 Nostradamus jr. on 11.02.09 at 10:44 am

>>>“You’ve got a hugely growing group of destitute people,” adds Byl, who is also a labour lawyer with the Alberta Federation of Labour. “They have to work to survive.”

Byl says the worst is yet to come: many of the 365,000 foreign workers who came to Canada in 2007 and 2008 will see their permits expire next year.

In a 2007 report, the RCMP estimated the number of undocumented workers in Canada ranged from 200,000 to 500,000. Toronto is widely seen as having the largest concentration.”<<<

Garth….which leads to more problems in Ontario.

…It makes for an unfortunate future for Canada's ex – Centre of the Earth Province.

Nostradamus jr.

#39 Jake on 11.02.09 at 10:58 am

Is it just me, or does it seem like the only thing we will be producing in the West in the near future is credit?

Keep up the good work Garth, and thanks for the touching real estate story you shared this morning.
Now that Halloween is over, the Christmas season is fast approaching. Two years ago I read a touching ad from a Remax realtor who proudly stated that his clients “wanted to honour Jesus this holiday season by offering an exceptional price on their great family home.” The funny thing was that the home seemed to be priced above comparables. Unless forgiveness of sins was included in the listing’s small print, I’d say that the buyers were getting played.

#40 pbrasseur on 11.02.09 at 11:07 am

Ever heard of technical analysis? — Garth

Oh Pleaaaaaase!

I also heard of Tarot, and even Dynamo Hum!!!! :-)

This branch of analysis has a positive ratio of 3:4. I would not recommend ignoring it. — Garth

#41 The Great Gazoo on 11.02.09 at 11:08 am

GREAT NEWS!!

Finally, it seems like the real estate industry will have to compete and behave fairly after all – like other businesses in a free market society…

http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/newsfeatures/article/719628–real-estate-fees-could-be-slashed

It will take some time though, but I am really glad to hear this is getting media attention and the collusion and anti-freemarket business practices the re industry is all about will be exposed.

A GOOD DAY!

#42 Downsized and Delighted on 11.02.09 at 11:18 am

Do we really need you Garth to tell us what we should have done “last” week?

Then don’t miss a week. — Garth

#43 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 11:19 am

#22 mooncake

“The fat lady is singing. The clock is about to strike midnight, so turn out the lights out. This home ownership cinderella party is about over.”

The fat lady has been singing… the clock has been about to strike midnight… the cinderella party is about over… for YEARS now.

“I’ve overheard a few coworkers said they’re spending a lot less money this holiday for gifts (and these people still have job).”

Well you can now say that you read on this forum that my wife and I will be spending more this holiday for gifts than at any time in the past. Anecdotal evidence sucks that way.

#44 M I K E on 11.02.09 at 11:21 am

Here’s an article that puts things into perspective.

I wonder if Garth wrote it :)

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/article/moneysense/981/squeezed

#45 pbrasseur on 11.02.09 at 11:23 am

Evangeline #35

“… take advantage of rallies along the way, grab profits wherever you can,”

Sounds good!

Only there is one little problem with this strategy: You don’t know (and never will know) when rallies starts and when they end, same for bear markets.

The only thing you can determine with at least some degree of confidence (provided you make the effort and do your homework) is the quality of a company.

The other good news: Quality pays… eventually.

IMHO any other type of investment in the stock market is mere speculation.

BTW there is absolutely nothing special about this market, nothing we have not seen before and nothing will will not see again and again.

#46 Barb the proof reader on 11.02.09 at 11:26 am

“Ford Canada has shuttered an entire car assembly plant.. in St. Thomas.. a bitter blow to 1,500 families.. another stake in the heart of SW Ontario RE market”
— Garth

.. and yet ..

Ford posts stunning $997-million profit

“The only Detroit automaker to forgo direct government aid grabs 15.2% of new-car sales in the U.S. and posts a profit of nearly $1 billion in the third-quarter.”

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ford-profit3-2009nov03,0,7152688.story

That’s the point. A jobless recovery. — Garth

#47 Fool me once... on 11.02.09 at 11:30 am

What is Bob Dugan smoking? It’s no wonder CMHC is in such trouble. Or should I say, we tax payers are in such trouble.

#48 Barb the proof reader on 11.02.09 at 11:52 am

Well, the insanity continues. The good thing is that least Canadians will PAY for their stupidity. When you have to pay for your mistakes, sometimes lessons for the future get learned, and that’s a good thing. When real estate bombs, and markets dive, and taxes rise, perhaps, just perhaps Canadians will realize how truly dumb they collectively are and they will realize how they are each a part of the problem.

However, some lessons are too late. For instance, Canadians have unwittingly allowed that conniving snake oil guy Harper to promote his gun lobby. Canada’s long-gun firearms registry is on the verge this week of being scrapped because the Conservatives may have enough support from the opposition to kill it. A Conservative private member’s bill to abolish the registry can now clear an important vote in the Commons on Wednesday.

“It is astonishing, just a few months after the opposition parties voted for a Bloc Québécois motion that reiterated support for the firearms registry and against efforts to repeal it, that many of the same MPs will support this Conservative bill.

It not only eliminates the need to register rifles and shotguns but requires that the information contained on seven million registered guns be destroyed.”

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/719623–tories-move-closer-to-killing-gun-registry?bn=1

It’s a sad day in Canada. Again.

#49 Ken on 11.02.09 at 11:55 am

The BOC and governmental finances seem to be mentally retarded,or do they just not care ?

#50 Barb the proof reader on 11.02.09 at 11:56 am

That’s the point. A jobless recovery. — Garth

Exactly. You’re welcome.

#51 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 12:00 pm

#28 pbrasseur

“Ever heard of technical analysis? — Garth”

“I realized that technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the chart upside down and didn’t get a different answer.” – Warren Buffett

So, use the hemline theory. I could care less. — Garth

#52 Alex on 11.02.09 at 12:04 pm

Hi Garth,

One year ago I asked you if it was a good idea to protect my hard earned money from inflation (or printing press?) by purchasing gold and silver.
You replied saying that it’s a bad idea and later in numerous postings you have also mentioned that gold and silver are useless rocks and are finished as investment instruments.

As of today silver is up 70% and gold is up 50%compared to last year – what made you so confident last year and what is your opinion today?

Give me a link to my comment. I likely suggested oil was a better bet. And how has that done, pray tell, (without custodial costs)? — Garth

#53 DaBull on 11.02.09 at 12:10 pm

#41 Downsized and Delighted

It’s easy to say “what you should have done last week” a week later. It’s hard to say “what you should do next week” a week earlier.

#54 CM on 11.02.09 at 12:10 pm

James K. Galbraith on Bill Moyers talking about the jobless recovery in the U.S. He looks as worried as I feel. He’s a worthy heir to his father’s economic legacy.

But all that negativity may be good for you.

“…[the study] showed that people in a negative mood were more critical of, and paid more attention to, their surroundings than happier people, who were more likely to believe anything they were told.”

Just call me Cassandra.

#55 Sphinx on 11.02.09 at 12:12 pm

and history books wrote,

“…..many years back in 2009, a baby in Toronto made an offer on a house, unfortunately the offer not accepted, and that was the top of the real estate market. By spring of 2010, BOC started hiking interest rates after mortgage rates has already soared as demanded by the bond market, so it made the BOC’s job very easy because canadians blamed the banks and lenders for initiating the demise of the housing market. At beginning of 2011, gov’t had to bail out CMHC after mounting losses in the tunes of tens of billions of dollars in their insurance portfolio. Everybody lost: homeowners and bubble sitters. Taxes are higher, unemployment soared, manufacturing base mostly moved to China, and incomes was adjusted up to 40% lower across all canadian employers. Some named it Great Depression II, others saw it as a Deep Recession, regardless, capitalism and socialism have morphed into capisocialism; a new era where everybody suffered except the top 1%”

#56 Larry on 11.02.09 at 12:15 pm

Meanwhile in Ireland http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-fall-40pc-from-2007-peak-1931282.html
down 40% from 2007 peak. What is happening here in Canada is surreal.

#57 DaBull on 11.02.09 at 12:18 pm

#39 pbrasseur

Technical Analysis only tells you what has the greatest possibility of happening. It does not tell you what is actually going to happen. It’s that simple.

PS: if you believe enough in Tarot cards you will make what ever they tell you happen. So in this case Tarot cards really are true fortune tellers.

#58 Dan in Victoria on 11.02.09 at 12:20 pm

Post#44 Barb,Ford posts stunning 997 million profit,yeah lets see how many houses and new cars those robots purchase.

#59 Calgary Rip off on 11.02.09 at 12:23 pm

Garth:

You should see what impact the vaccination effort should have in the next election. This vaccination has clued in the majority of Calgarians what it is like to be “priced out forever” or unable to get affordable housing-everyone was equal to get their vaccination and the Tories failed miserably.

As a consequence, many in Calgary will likely vote Liberal or worse, wild Rose. This change in parties will likely change the housing dynamics now present.

The Tories have finally given the idiots that vote them in in Alberta a dose of their own medicine. They should have voted NDP, likely things for housing would be smoother in addition to logic for a vaccination effort.

Stay tuned for the turning of Alberta. Farmers and uneducated officials will soon be thrown out to pasture.

Maybe now people in Calgary will understand why voting for a party such as the Tories will always end in failure. The Tories dont and never have represented the socialist ideals that Canada represents. They are pseudoAmericans and should be thrown out.

Long live the NDP.

#60 Evangeline on 11.02.09 at 12:33 pm

#43 pbrasseur

((Only there is one little problem with this strategy: You don’t know (and never will know) when rallies starts and when they end, same for bear markets.))

you can’t know how economic conditions and other factors will affect future demand and supply and the ability to deliver either … a company that has value today can have zero value tomorrow.

#61 Two-thirds on 11.02.09 at 12:41 pm

#14 Mike (Authentic)

+1

And I’d like to add that the double whammy here is the fact that those small businesses who depended on CIT for credit, will likely experience a liquidity crunch going forward. The danger: more job losses, as businesses shed employees to cut costs in the absence of credit for operations.

On a different note: I agree with those who recommend being on the sidelines starting last week. The real interesting issue now is: What would be a reasonable re-entry point going forward? Do you b-dogs think the TSX will break the March low? How about the Dow?

#62 jess on 11.02.09 at 12:45 pm

Bill in regard to velocity

i mean the ones with the forked tails
Didn’t the twenties experience deflation regardless of the radio ?
=======

#63 Jeff Smith on 11.02.09 at 12:58 pm

Come on. When was the last time you entertained yourself at Yuk Yuk’s or other comedy joint?? How much did it cost you to get a seat inside?

You are getting entertainment here, and it didn’t cost anything.

Hihihi

Unless of course someone close to you or someone you care for is the performer.

>#3 4real on 11.01.09 at 11:54 pm Is it any wonder
>those sellers are grinning ear to ear. Some fools (and
>their baby) just paid them 350,000 dollars more than
>they paid for their house only 10 years ago.
>All I can do is sit on the sidelines and shake my head
>in disbelief.

#64 Jeff Smith on 11.02.09 at 12:59 pm

Maybe its BPA in the formula bottle prior to the ban. Maybe they are still using the same old bottle.

>#4 DB on 11.02.09 at 12:13 am Must be the fluoride in
>the water.

#65 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 1:03 pm

#36 Daystar

It’s also a rotten time to be market timing.

#66 Nostradamus jr. on 11.02.09 at 1:04 pm

Evangilene,

…Posters here know I credit all exerpts.

Unfortunately I was rather preoccupied as both North Korea and India were on separate lines with me asking my prophecies on them…whether nuking South Korea and Pakistan would bring them each good fortune respectively.

…My burden has been heavy these past 500 years.

Nostradamus jr.

#67 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 1:06 pm

#51 DaBull

“It’s easy to say “what you should have done last week” a week later. It’s hard to say “what you should do next week” a week earlier.”

So true.

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.
— Laurence J. Peter

#68 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 1:08 pm

#59 Two-thirds

“On a different note: I agree with those who recommend being on the sidelines starting last week. The real interesting issue now is: What would be a reasonable re-entry point going forward? Do you b-dogs think the TSX will break the March low? How about the Dow?”

I think you should buy companies that create debtless profit when prices and markets are declining.

#69 Evangeline on 11.02.09 at 1:19 pm

#53

((capisocialism))

aka fascism

#70 lgre on 11.02.09 at 1:32 pm

“I realized that technical analysis didn’t work when I turned the chart upside down and didn’t get a different answer.” – Warren Buffett”

Comparing Buffett to some ordinary trader is ridiculous, the guy is an insider and knows every top dog in the corporate world, one call and he will know everything that happens before it does..his quotes are nice and tantalizing but should be taken with a grain of salt.

#71 45 on 11.02.09 at 1:35 pm

Ruraldude
Just read an interesting article
link?

#72 Dark Wettler on 11.02.09 at 1:37 pm

I would agree that we may have wild markets this november… but not necessarily in the way you would expect. Looking at the seasonal averages for the last 37 years, the s&p 500 behaved exactly as it should in october. Fund managers generally sell to lock in gains for the books through september-october.

If the last 37 years of data are any indication, november could be a very good month. There is also a lot of cash that can still find it’s way into the markets thanks to trillions in bailouts and stimulus spending.

Nobody knows. I just follow the trend. Speaking of which, it will soon be time for you to revisit your hatred of gold, Garth.

Gold is still far and away the best performing asset class since the tech bubble burst and outside of a small group of gold bugs nobody has noticed.

The market cap of every gold related company on the planet is roughly equal to the market cap of wal-mart. Silver is roughly equal to starbucks. What will happen when 1% of global investors move to precious metals?

The bugs are going to have a field day with you.

#73 Men With Hats on 11.02.09 at 1:38 pm

Trips to Hawaii and new cars can not be far off as signing bonuses for purchasing houses .
Mark my words it is coming .
What a freaky carnival .

#74 CM on 11.02.09 at 1:39 pm

Quality of jobs declines as recession eases

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/719774–quality-of-jobs-declines-as-recession-eases?bn=1

#75 Devil's Advocate on 11.02.09 at 1:42 pm

This guy (Bob Dugan – Chief Economist, CMHC) is a joke!

http://watch.bnn.ca/clip230303#clip230303

Just one more reason NOT to believe anything the CMHC SPIN Machine pukes or craps out. This crap brought to you by the guys who promoted zero down 40 year amortization mortgages to prime the economy.

I was at a developers open house the other day and they had all kinds of CMHC hype propeganda laid out to support their contention that prices are poised to rise yet further. This as they with a straight face ask $600.00 per square foot for a 650 sq ft condo that does not include parking.

I thought 24 months ago was insane… this is lunacy beyond comprehension.

#76 Colin on 11.02.09 at 1:44 pm

Only if you like to buy high and sell low. We are likely entering a range-bound market. It will deathly for the ETF crowd. — Garth

Garth, could kindly elaborate on your comment above regarding ETFs and “range-bound markets”?

Thank you.

Many smart people believe markets will move sideways over an extended period of time, as they did in the 1970s, for a variety of valid reasons. This, passive investing (index funds or ETFs) is a bad idea, since these will yield nothing. — Garth

#77 Cassandra on 11.02.09 at 1:49 pm

Ever heard of technical analysis? — Garth

I think what Garth is saying here is, if you own, sell your house now to a Greater Fool, and use the profits to day trade – an admirable profession, indeed.

But educate yourself first, of course. Get a book, ’cause these are not days to jump into the stock market without knowing how to read a chart.

And maybe look into growing some parsley or tomatoes on the balcony of your new rental apartment, so you can point a pasty finger at them and demonstrate that you are at least doing something productive for yourself, if not the rest of society.

And that Vitamin C will be important during flu season…

#78 GDI Jedi on 11.02.09 at 1:52 pm

#46 Barb

It’s a sad day indeed.

#79 Evangeline on 11.02.09 at 2:06 pm

#64 Nostradamus jr.

((…Posters here know I credit all exerpts.))

ok, all except one :)

#80 dd on 11.02.09 at 2:08 pm

#50 Alex

…As of today silver is up 70% and gold is up 50%compared to last year…

Sure it is up. But recalulate in CDN. If you bought gold (which in priced in US) and sold today (In US), the total gain would be less that 5%! What is the difference? The tanking US dollar.

#81 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.02.09 at 2:09 pm

Ottawa to CREA UP YOUR’S

#82 Downbytheriver on 11.02.09 at 2:14 pm

Re: ‘market timing’ and technical analysis:

There is a lot of t/a that does resemble reading tea leaves but even so one could argue that enough traders (and computer algorithms that do a lot of the actual ‘trading) do rely on it so it becomes self-fulfilling prophesy. I read futronomics and several other such blogs and found they’re pretty good at what they do.

While it would be nice if there was a return to actual investing – low, steady dividends rather than the perpetual chase after quick capital gains – it’s getting more difficult to do that. ‘Buy and Hold’ is a lousy strategy in a volatile and possibly manipulated stock market.
As for Buffet – Berkshire suffered massive losses last year and while they’ve managed to recoup them they are still down from their highs, and a fair amount of it was (indirectly) attributable to the big bailouts, and to a VERY sweet deal with Goldman Sachs when their stock was at a low this past year.

As for ‘market timing’ in general – for individual stocks it’s extremely difficult. It’s also sometimes difficult to predict when turns happen and I didn’t see this rally lasting as long as it has.

However, where timing is EVERYTHING is cashing out before a big drop. Even more important than ‘investing vs speculation’ is capital preservation – shielding yourself from losses.
TA has for the past month been indicating another sharp leg down, triggered most likely by a rebound in the US dollar. And Roubini is warning about the ‘mother of all carry trades’ that may be about to unwind.

Personally, I admit to completely missing this rally. I went into cash pretty much when the TSX was at its top. Though the rally wasn’t a surprise to me – stocks rallied in 1930 too – I was pretty sure it wouldn’t last and didn’t want to play a guessing game as to how long it would last.

#83 knucklewalker on 11.02.09 at 2:19 pm

#46

Sorry Barb but that is the best single piece of news that I have heard all day. That legislation was perhaps the biggest pile of crap ever to fall out of Ottawas ass….

You as a fellow citizen (and no government lacky anywhere) have absolutely no right to know if I own a long rifle…..go ahead and buy your own…I won’t tell on you

#84 Downbytheriver on 11.02.09 at 2:23 pm

@#59 Two-thirds:
“On a different note: I agree with those who recommend being on the sidelines starting last week. The real interesting issue now is: What would be a reasonable re-entry point going forward? Do you b-dogs think the TSX will break the March low? How about the Dow?”

I find that the US and other countries are basically replicating what Japan did starting in the early 90s when their bubble burst. IF – and it’s a big IF – they continue to do so, then it’s possible that the TSX, DOW, etc. might follow a similar path. In which case, there’s likely not a decent re-entry point in the near future.

However, if there is ever serious and major financial reform at of the financial system – to the level where Glass-Steagall is reinstated, forcing the major banks to take the losses & nationalizing them where necessarily rather than propping up ‘zombie’ banks in perpetuity and shrinking the entire “FIRE” sector as a portion of GDP and the return of a manufacturing base in North America – then we’ll see.

#85 Downbytheriver on 11.02.09 at 2:44 pm

Here’s a good summary on the math re: capital preservation:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/the-cruel-basic-mathethematics-of-losses/

#86 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.02.09 at 2:46 pm

#53 Sphinx

Unfortunately, we have not had true capitalism in decades. We also have not had pure socialism.

John Ralston Saul has delat with this absence of real trade and proper regulations, but few seem bother becoming educated on the subject matter.

Oddly, the U.S. Constitution assigned the responsibility for the ‘General welfare of the people’ to the Congress. The Democrats thought it meant anything they could think of, and the Rethuglicans reacted like vampires to garlic at the very word ‘welfare.’

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

Section 8 – Powers of Congress

The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;

Your term is close, but not all that accurate. Evangeline (what a proper name for her) grabs it and calls it ‘fascism’, like a parrot right off the Fox (Faux) News talk (Propaganda) shows.

Now there is a term only a true fascist could possibly come up with. One thing about racists, bigots, xenophobes, and fascists is they all believe they are not one.

Those who resort to using terms like fascism, communism, etc., blatantly show they do not understand the meaning of the terms. Just like calling Lennin’s or Stalin’s communism ‘Marxism.’ Neither were! Fascism is more commonly known as AUTHORITATIVE NATIONALISM!

#87 mattvic on 11.02.09 at 3:20 pm

Interesting story on a perennial “bull”, changing his opinion: http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2009/11/02/f-schachter-warns-of-double-dip.html

#88 anyone on 11.02.09 at 3:21 pm

#53…. Bingo!!!!

But it’s always been like this.
500 years ago, the Kings and the Church. The extreme religion as the weapon for the 99%.
Today, the Gov. and the Banks. The extreme debt as the weapon for the 99%.

Are so distant ages so different?
Mankind has never changed, only the clothes.

#89 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.02.09 at 3:36 pm

Gene Roddenberry must be laughing in his grave? He gave the world the concept of a moneyless society. Japan has had serious discussions regarding just that.

The ancient Levitical Law imposed a Jubilee every 50 years in which all debts were made null and void. we are probably going to see that eventually, either that or the largest smoke column in history rising from all the ‘cooked books.’

Perhaps people will now start to learn that people are more important than money or make-believe wealth?

#90 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.02.09 at 3:47 pm

#86 anyone

One historical fact unknown to many was that King Phillip ‘The Fair’ (according to him of course) of France decided he needed to ‘get some’ so he ordered all the Jews rounded up and exiled (deported). He, of course, took all their property and lands. This happened beginning on 22 July 1306.

Seems King Phillip was playing deadly games with the Pope(s) and owed the Knights Templar a fortune. But then, so did the Vatican.

Coincidently, on the same day, eight years earlier, the English defeated the Scots at the Battle of Falkirk.

SSDD

#91 Barb the proof reader on 11.02.09 at 3:47 pm

#81 –

Yeah, ri-i-ight, #81 knucklewalker, like you know better than the police and gun victims:

” .. November 1, 2009 – Press Release:
Canadian Association of Police Boards asks all members of parliament to reconsider dismantling of the gun control system when private member’s Bill C-391 receives second reading on November 4

Knuckleboy, are you part of the vast and ongoing dissemination con by the NRA?

“Groups opposing gun control also made heavy use of the Internet in organizing and disseminating information and positioned several academics as authorities. A paper published by the Fraser [phony] Institute was widely cited by press and politicians, often without any reference to the author’s connection to the B.C. Wildlife Federation or the fact that he had previously been funded by the NRA.” (that would be an American Lobby Group.. the National Rifle Association.. and while I’m typing.. to the NRA: keep yer effin noses out of Canada’s business; we’re tired of your meddling)

#92 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 3:48 pm

#68 lgre

“Comparing Buffett to some ordinary trader is ridiculous, the guy is an insider and knows every top dog in the corporate world, one call and he will know everything that happens before it does..his quotes are nice and tantalizing but should be taken with a grain of salt.”

Didn’t you know? “Success is simply a matter of luck. Ask any failure.” – Earl Wilson

#93 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.02.09 at 3:50 pm

FYI, 22 July seems to be one of those extemely busy dates in history as shown in this listing.

#94 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 3:51 pm

#74 Colin

Many smart people also believe that investing based on predictions of the future seem somewhat foolish even in the 21st century.

#95 Dark Wettler on 11.02.09 at 3:52 pm

#80 Downbytheriver

‘However, where timing is EVERYTHING is cashing out before a big drop. Even more important than ‘investing vs speculation’ is capital preservation – shielding yourself from losses.
TA has for the past month been indicating another sharp leg down, triggered most likely by a rebound in the US dollar. And Roubini is warning about the ‘mother of all carry trades’ that may be about to unwind.’

I would disagree with your assessment of TA indicating a downturn for the past month unless you are looking at a 30 day chart. By downturn I assume you mean the Dow (S&P 500) as all markets in north america follow.

Roubini is just one man. Unless the dollar does rally short-term the carry trade remains in place. He also doesn’t give credit to the fact that commodities are being purchased as an inflation hedge.

As I write this the USDX is close to breaking out of it’s 6 month downtrending price channel. It will have to do so this week to carry any momentum into a trend reversal. If it fails to do so and slips below the 75 level then it will move more or less straight down to the 72 level.

Perversely, the dollar is currently trading off the equity markets and commodities trade off the dollar.

#96 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 3:58 pm

#75 Cassandra

“But educate yourself first, of course. Get a book, ’cause these are not days to jump into the stock market without knowing how to read a chart.”

Personally, it has been more important to learn how to read financial statements than to read a chart. I still don’t know how to read a chart.

And guess who supplies the data for financial statements? — Garth

#97 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 4:01 pm

I find it amusing to read advice about ‘being on the sidelines last week’ after the week has occured. Searching the blog two weeks ago, nobody seemed to specifically mention taking the following week off.

No doubt during the next future week-long rise, posters will recommend to ‘being invested in the market’ after the week has passed.

I mentioned several weeks ago we were overdue for a correction after a 30% gain. Duh. — Garth

#98 Evangeline on 11.02.09 at 4:03 pm

#53 Bill who thinks all dissent to his world view is EVIL PROPAGANDA

((Your term is close, but not all that accurate. Evangeline (what a proper name for her) grabs it and calls it ‘fascism’, like a parrot right off the Fox (Faux) News talk (Propaganda) shows.))

LOL!!!!!!

The concise encyclopedia of economics
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Fascism.html

FASCISM

As an economic system, ***fascism is socialism with a capitalist veneer. ***The word derives from fasces, the Roman symbol of collectivism and power: a tied bundle of rods with a protruding ax. In its day (the 1920s and 1930s), fascism was seen as the happy medium between boom-and-bust-prone liberal capitalism, with its alleged class conflict, wasteful competition, and profit-oriented egoism, and revolutionary Marxism, with its violent and socially divisive persecution of the bourgeoisie. Fascism substituted the particularity of nationalism and racialism—“blood and soil”—for the internationalism of both classical liberalism and Marxism
…………..

In the United States, beginning in 1933, the constellation of government interventions known as the New Deal had features suggestive of the corporate state. The National Industrial Recovery Act created code authorities and codes of practice that governed all aspects of manufacturing and commerce. The National Labor Relations Act made the federal government the final arbiter in labor issues. The Agricultural Adjustment Act introduced central planning to farming. The object was to reduce competition and output in order to keep prices and incomes of particular groups from falling during the Great Depression.

It is a matter of controversy whether President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal was directly influenced by fascist economic policies. Mussolini praised the New Deal as “boldly . . . interventionist in the field of economics,” and Roosevelt complimented Mussolini for his “honest purpose of restoring Italy” and acknowledged that he kept “in fairly close touch with that admirable Italian gentleman.” Also, Hugh Johnson, head of the National Recovery Administration, was known to carry a copy of Raffaello Viglione’s pro-Mussolini book, The Corporate State, with him, presented a copy to Labor Secretary Frances Perkins, and, on retirement, paid tribute to the Italian dictator.

#99 $fromA$ia on 11.02.09 at 4:09 pm

“Activity and prices will improve in the second half of this year and grow further in 2010”, CMHC says

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And if CHMC is wrong, the tax payer will fit the bill.

This whole thing is wrong.

This is not Canadian, its Communism.

#100 $fromA$ia on 11.02.09 at 4:09 pm

The Communism Mortage and Housing Company.

Underwritten by the tax payer.

#101 905er & Spouse on 11.02.09 at 4:10 pm

RE: #50 Alex

Remember gold is bought and sold in US dollars so to compare the price you also need to adjust for the change in the US dollar. Last I checked the green back is not doing so hot.

I like gold and all…I think buying stock in gold companies might be a better choice if you are trying to go the gold route.

I’m not nocking gold and I really don’t want to start another gold is good gold is bad thing. Please folks lets not start that thing again. It really has very little to do with real estate. Gold is gold some love it some don’t just let sleeping dogs lie.

#102 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.02.09 at 4:15 pm

#89 Barb the proof reader

NRA = Naturally Retarded Assholes!

That is why they have to put warning labels like this on handguns

or this one

They are the same people who caused us to now have silly warning labels like this one

Likewise, their dogs are more literate!

#103 lgre on 11.02.09 at 4:24 pm

“Didn’t you know? “Success is simply a matter of luck. Ask any failure.” – Earl Wilson”

Some people do become financially successful based purely off luck, another failed quote..You got anymore?

#104 Dark Wettler on 11.02.09 at 4:27 pm

#78 dd on 11.02.09 at 2:08 pm

‘Sure it is up. But recalulate in CDN. If you bought gold (which in priced in US) and sold today (In US), the total gain would be less that 5%! What is the difference? The tanking US dollar.’

That is a completely erroneous statement. Try 29% in CAD terms, 45% in USD terms from 52 weeks ago, which is the timeline #50 Alex referred to.

Garth’s likely recommendation of oil is up 50% over the same time frame. Let’s compare apples to apples here.

In

#105 rory on 11.02.09 at 4:35 pm

#84 Bill-Muskoka (NAM)

Dude, time to read a new and/or different cbook …you have been citing Saul for what seems like a lifetime and no one cares anymore …really!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Ralston_Saul#cite_note-3
“During this last speech he asserted that explorer John Franklin’s crew perished because they were “stupid, stupid men”, and that 17th-century Aboriginal people designed Canada’s current health care system.”

Okay then …my mistake we need more Saul.

#106 CinToronto on 11.02.09 at 4:38 pm

I don’t know why I’m bothering, because “Watched Bubble . . . ” just wants to get another free advert for his services. But here goes anyway. Anyone who reads economics knows that serious economists admit that they can’t predict exactly when something will happen. However, they can tell us when things are out of whack, and that they will correct at some point in the future. It’s childish to equate this with “no one can predict the future,” because that’s not what serious analysts try to do. Buy and hold benefits advisors, market timing is just for the big players. But when the writing is on the wall, why would you not sell, even if it turns out that the crash doesn’t happen for another 8 months? It’s better to be a few months early than 1 week too late.

#107 JB on 11.02.09 at 4:41 pm

This madness is just what the BOC wants. Bidding wars…even if it financially destroys the future of young families who are pulled into them.

#108 Jonathan on 11.02.09 at 4:45 pm

You’re making a good call.

It’s too bad you ruled out a depression a year ago. More and more statistical evidence is showing up that a economic depression is inevitable.

Nothing is ever ruled out. My odds a year ago were 20%. — Garth

#109 Grantmi on 11.02.09 at 4:56 pm

#93 Dark Wettler on 11.02.09 at 3:52 pm

As I write this the USDX is close to breaking out of it’s 6 month downtrending price channel. It will have to do so this week to carry any momentum into a trend reversal. If it fails to do so and slips below the 75 level then it will move more or less straight down to the 72 level.

I think you also have to look at the volume as well Wettler… the big money institutions are betting that the USD$ is going to climb.

I use the UUP to see this trend.. since the USDX$ doesn’t give you volume!!

http://i33.tinypic.com/210mwb8.jpg

#110 David Bakody on 11.02.09 at 4:59 pm

CIT on one side of the Atlantic, and other the other

RBS to cut 3,700 branch jobs• Union condemns cuts as ‘absolute madness’
• EU-imposed restructuring to be outlined tomorrow
• RBS shares close down 8%

So what do y’all think will happen in Canada …nothing?

So get the overpriced home now while you can because soon it might be half price and you will loose bragging rights ….. hello?

#111 David Bakody on 11.02.09 at 5:10 pm

#89 Barb the proof reader on 11.02.09 at 3:47 pm

I think all MP’s should give in to the Conservatives and not only stand in approval … but add to it and drop the requirement for hand guns also …. matter of fact why not allow everyone starting at age 16 to buy and carry a hand gun anywhere anytime ….. then they can really get tough on Crime with millions of deputies on the street helping out making citizens arrest or plugging crooks full of holes 24/7 not to mention those people in traffic who cut you off or give the one finger salute …. Bang your gone! Hey imagine some jumps the H1N1 line … Bang your gone …. So give Harper full control and let him deal with all the fall out!

#112 Relief_and_Happiness on 11.02.09 at 5:19 pm

#81 knucklewalker

AMEN !

Finally, finally, we will collectively tell kooky wendy to shove her bent social reengineering where the sun doesn’t shine.

A hugely wasteful, insanely expensive, abusive, useless, purely political attempt to grab away the personal property of law-abiding duck hunters will finally be put to rest.

Thank God.

God made ducks. Blast away, doofus. — Garth

#113 OttawaMike on 11.02.09 at 5:21 pm

I’m a big a permabear as anybody here on this blog but I think this link says it all:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
Too many predictions af a crash in the MSM have made me think this market has a lot further to go up before the inevitable drop.Charles Hugh Smith summed it up nicely.
Barb:
I’m not a gun enthusiast of any sort and believe illegally smuggled guns are scourge to Canadian society. None of this redeems the gun registry. That program has all the elements of what can go wrong when govt. intervenes with a knee jerk response to a tragedy. We had effective gun laws already in place. If they really want to control guns, monitor & control the ammo. you can’t use a gun without ammunition.

#114 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 5:40 pm

#94 Watched Bubble Never Pops

“And guess who supplies the data for financial statements? — Garth”

Guess who audits the auditor when the CEO owns over 25% of the outstanding shares?

#115 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 5:42 pm

#95 Watched Bubble Never Pops

“I mentioned several weeks ago we were overdue for a correction after a 30% gain. Duh. — Garth”

I constantly forget that you are the only one who can predict the future.

I predict that I’ll forget that fact again in the future.

If it pains you to be here, there’s a solution. — Garth

#116 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 5:44 pm

#101 lgre

“Some people do become financially successful based purely off luck, another failed quote..You got anymore?”

Unfortunately none that would appeal to your level of understanding.

How about an appeal to vanity? — Garth

#117 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 5:52 pm

#104 CinToronto

“But when the writing is on the wall, why would you not sell, even if it turns out that the crash doesn’t happen for another 8 months? It’s better to be a few months early than 1 week too late.”

Unfortunately I am not intelligent enough to structure my investment strategy around predicting a time period to sell.

My difficulty isn’t that I don’t want to sell 8 weeks before a downturn. My difficulty is that I don’t know it is 8 weeks before a downturn.

My investments are structured to take advantage of deep asset declines.

For better or worse, my investments will not be able to take advantage of predictions of the future.

“If a stock goes down 50%, I’d look forward to it. In fact, I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month.”
-Warren Buffett, 2008 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting

#118 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 6:12 pm

#114 Watched Bubble Never Pops

“How about an appeal to vanity? — Garth”

Hello pot, I’m kettle. :)

#119 $fromA$ia on 11.02.09 at 6:13 pm

How about an appeal to vanity? — Garth

Lol a Canadian Tom Vu!!! He should run for the Conservative Party, what you think Garth?

:P

#120 Watched Bubble Never Pops on 11.02.09 at 6:13 pm

#113 Watched Bubble Never Pops

“If it pains you to be here, there’s a solution. — Garth”

Pains me? This is the best blog I’ve ever found!

#121 Barb the proof reader on 11.02.09 at 6:32 pm

#100 Bill Muskoka,
Your warning to not use toilet bowl cleaner for personal hygiene was funny.. until I remembered reading that in the ’20s Lysol was marketed by Lysol, Inc. as a douche. Ouch.

#109 David Bakody,
I wish I had a gun last week when the girl at Tim’s sneezed on me with her cold :)

………

So, right on the mark, there’s paid gun Lobbyists posting lies. Here’s an example of an NRA Gun Lobbyist LIE: “’Duck guns’ are not a problem, just handguns” Wrong.

The facts are that rifles and shotguns kill just as dead as handguns. These are the guns most used in domestic violence and to kill police officers. The gun used to kill 14 young women at Polytechnique is still sold as an unrestricted hunting rifle.

FACT: Firearms death, injury and crime have decreased since the controls were introduced. Police use it almost 10,000 times a day.

FACT: Legal guns are often diverted to criminal markets through theft and illegal sales. Controls over legal guns help stem the flow of guns to criminals.

FACT: People with guns kill more efficiently. Where there are more guns there are more deaths.

FACT: The rates of gun death are higher in rural areas and the west where there are more guns. Domestic violence and youth suicide are particular problems. Police officers are more likely to be murdered with guns in smaller communities than big cities.

FACT: There is a human cost to gun violence and survivors feel the “punishment” every day. Licensing gun owners and registering guns does not prevent them from being used for lawful purposes.

FACT: The Gun Lobby spares no expense to dupe Canadians
http://guncontrolcanada.wordpress.com/2009/06/04/the-gun-lobby-spares-no-expense/

Since 1989, the Coalition for Gun Control has worked to reduce firearm death, injury and crime in Canada. Its 350 supporting organizations include the Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police, the Canadian Public Health Association, the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, women’s groups, victims groups, and others.

http://www.guncontrol.ca/English/Home/Home.htm

#122 saanichtonian on 11.02.09 at 6:33 pm

An interesting interview on CKNW (corus) with Senil Ram (military analyst), covering Afghanistan, a little on private central banks, and a few other things.
The interview starts about half way through the recording.
I rarely hear this much straight talk on MSM.

http://www.corusradio.com/Shared/AudioVault/CKNWAMaudioVault.asp?VaultDate=20091102&VaultTime=11&mysubmit=Listen

If the link does not work, got to cknw.com, then audiovault, and 11:00am today.

#123 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.02.09 at 6:41 pm

#103 rory

LOL When I can find a better book to quote I will. Very few writers tie things together in such a concise and informative manner. In other words one must have Saul! ;-)

One other book I read years ago was ‘Jews, God, and History’ by Max DiMont. What made it so good was he, like Saul, didn’t just use political-economic history, he revealed factual truth using socio-economic history. The former tells what happened, but the latter tells WHY things happened. Those are, to my thinking, the real things we need to know, not merely some chronological facts. I look for the ‘Why’ things happened and in most cases continue to re-occur. That is how we actually make progress instead of provign we are insane by repeating the same act expecting a different result!

#124 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.02.09 at 6:45 pm

God made ducks. Blast away, doofus. — Garth

Gee, do you think they let the two duck slaughtering morons out already? Imagine that, they know how to use a computer! Guess that cell phone taught ’em right?

#125 Maurice on 11.02.09 at 6:50 pm

#11 Ruraldude

Been there, done that, got the T shirt. Agricultural land is now being “bubbled” through Farm Credit Corp (FCC) Low interest long term loans for equity. This has driven up farm land prices in the same proportion as the CMHC 5/35 has for houses. Everyone is happy thought. Young farmers get a farm and the old farmers get to retire. The only problem is at 1.5% on a 1 year GIC the retired farmer has to spend principle to get by.

#126 Devil's Advocate on 11.02.09 at 7:12 pm

#79 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.02.09 at 2:09 pm said
“Ottawa to CREA… UP YOUR’S” hyperlinking the following URL; http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/newsfeatures/article/719628–real-estate-fees-could-be-slashed

I especially like the comment in that blog by Arthur Porter, who wrote;
“As a former real estate agent my blood boils when a extremely highly, overpaid bureaucrat who gets goodness knows how many paid sick days, a healthy pension, probably four or five weeks paid vacation, most likely a ten to four, five day week, most likely a vehicle or the use of one, doesn’t spend many unpaid hours pandering to the public who often use you as a tourist guide, thinks he is qualified to tell a real estate agent he/she earns too much. There is no pension, no sick days, no paid vacation, he/she is liable for all office and business expenses, provides a vehicle and supplies his/her own gas, has to be available 24 hours 7 days a week. Come on let’s be fair. If it is so easy, why do 90.9% of those entering Real Estate quit in less than one year?”

#127 Onemorething on 11.02.09 at 7:16 pm

#20 DrC, now that is the best summary of the AUS RE run up for sure. I agree 100%. The outcome, not sure but they are in the same boat as Canada, just playing a different game at the Casino!

#128 HouseBuster on 11.02.09 at 8:10 pm

WTF? that’s all i gotta say

#129 Dang it! on 11.02.09 at 8:19 pm

Yee-ha! We done got R-selves a gun blog!! Bang bang!!

#130 Publius Enigma on 11.02.09 at 8:19 pm

Post #26

This post is blatant plagiarism.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1567-Is-It-ALL-A-Scam-BAC.html

#131 Taxpayer like you on 11.02.09 at 8:21 pm

“If it is so easy, why do 90.9% of those entering Real Estate quit in less than one year?” – DA @ 124

Its obvious they have very low standards!

#132 Taxpayer like you on 11.02.09 at 8:26 pm

Dr C @ 20

“The real cause of the housing bubble in Australia has
been the triple-play combination of negative gearing (you
deduct the cost of interest for your “investment
property” against your salaried income), depreciation
(you deduct the cost of “repairs” i.e. renovations against
your salaried income) and capital gains tax exemptions (after massive taxpayer subsidies throughout the life of the mortgage, when you sell you don’t pay all the tax on your profit).”

Isnt this what we’ve done in Canada for years – ie long before we had this bubble?

#133 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 11.02.09 at 8:28 pm

#97 $fromA$ia and #105 JB — “This is not Canadian, its Communism.” — and — “This madness is just what the BOC wants. Bidding wars . . .”

Noted, and good posts. I read an interview with George Foreman a couple of days ago, re: “Rumble In The Jungle”, the match that Muhammed Ali and he featured in the early ’70s in Zaire.

Foreman was akin to a machine gun (a la Mike Tyson), simply destroying opponents, and was heavily favored to win. Turns out Ali did plenty of research, and discovered Foreman’s Achilles Heel — Foreman had no stamina, which meant he had to to defeat his opponents in less than six rounds or he was done.

Knowing this, Ali invented the “rope-a-dope” style; he danced around, then lay back on the ropes, let Foreman punch all he wanted (while protecting his face) and wear himself down.

In the eighth or ninth round, Ali had an opening, knocked him with a left, then a right. He had enough time for a third hit, but let it go as he knew Foreman was beaten.

The elite / GS & JPM, et al / politicians & banksters / money- and con-men are doing the same as Ali — laying back on the ropes, handing out as much money as possible to sheeples (Foreman); then with one opening, strike with a left then right punch.

They are setting the middle class and others who have little to nothing up for a major downturn, and the end of this particular western-based cycle.

Further — Bloodsuckers 1 / Bloodsuckers 2
/ Bloodsuckers 3
——
A tad different; ‘spose it goes with the clip I posted yesterday. — India + China

Short but interesting read: From Bank Failures To Civil Unrest. — http://www.conspiracyplanet.com/
——
Reading between the lines (or looking behind the scenes), if Obama has taken the US down, it’s probably because he was told to (see links above). — Obama

#134 Dark Wettler on 11.02.09 at 8:54 pm

#102 Dark Wettler

‘Garth’s likely recommendation of oil is up 50% over the same time frame. Let’s compare apples to apples here.’

Nice edit Garth. I typed 5%, not 50%. I do proof-read before I post.

If anybody doubts, look up the prices for yourself. It’s 5% over 52 weeks in US dollar terms.

Oil was $32 at the end of last year and will finish this year between $70 and $80. I was sure you’d wish to diminish embarrassing yourself. — Garth

#135 Dave on 11.02.09 at 9:11 pm

Nothing is ever ruled out. My odds a year ago were 20%. — Garth

——————————————-

I”m not sure how you make this statement. There isn’t even a proper definition of a depression. How can you throw a percentage out there as the possibility a depression could occur?

Omniscience. — Garth

#136 ralph on 11.02.09 at 10:08 pm

Here is a sad story of what greed will do to people. I always thought that wisdom comes with age. Apparently not in this case. To bad, so sad.

Lawyer disbarred for theft, fraud: http://www.castanet.net/news/Kelowna/50535/Lawyer-disbarred-for-theft-fraud

#137 The Desert on 11.02.09 at 10:09 pm

Garth, can you please comment on ‘housing’ being included in the CPI calculation to the tune of 22%, or 16% for rent/mortgage payments (heard this from Mark Carney on t.v.), is this accurate and if so doesn’t this mean the BoC cannot act to depress housing or else they would be acting in opposition to their mandate to get inflation to 2%?

#138 Onemorething on 11.02.09 at 10:17 pm

#131 Nos LMV, agreed!

If the Elite own 95% of the wealth, and they are stripped clean, which we believe they will be, then a Global Depression is imminent!

I actually subscribe to the fact the day the USA called the recession OVER, it was exactly the moment the Depression began, last week.

It is only the AGE OF STIMULUS that keeps the Foreman’s thinking their is still gas in the tank!

#139 Onemorething on 11.02.09 at 10:20 pm

If the Elite own 95% of the wealth, and they are stripped clean, which we believe they will be, then a Global Depression is imminent!

THEY MEANING MIDDLE CLASS!

#140 jmcanuck on 11.02.09 at 10:29 pm

#119 Barb the proof reader

I’m not against registering restricted firearms but registering non-restricted long rifles and shotties is a waste of time. They are not used in crimes in general. Hand guns are more of a concern for law enforcement as they are easily concealed and used in most gun crimes. But regardless, criminals are not going to register their guns. Oh I’m going to go commit a crime but dang it…I haven’t registered my gun yet so I guess I’ll have to go get a job!

Not sure what gun control has to do with real estate anyways except that both are too expensive.

#141 Dan in Victoria on 11.03.09 at 12:25 am

Well,babys making offers.Maybe Baby should ask for a car seat.Sun River Estates in Sooke City are now offering a new honda if you buy a house.sunriverestates.com

#142 JHO on 11.03.09 at 1:11 am

the “babies making offers” thing is good stuff. my old boss was based in california (just outside of san fran) and used to tell me similarly ridiculous stories of people making offers submitting personal letters complimenting the seller’s home, style and care-taking, promising to treat it with the utmost respect if they sold it to them.

good thing too, as just look at how awesome the CA real estate market is doing now…

#143 char on 11.03.09 at 2:14 am

# Knucklewalker–

Right On !

I am pro gun, pro privacy.

Police can’t be everywhere, and in some cases don’t want to be.

My mother was able to save her life and mine (I was 6 yrs old) from a stalker thanks to her getting a riffle. This was in a rural area. She had to bribe the cops big bucks to get a hunting license, as they wouldn’t give one in those days to a woman. We would definitely have been killed, or worse. The same sort of situation could easily unfold today.

People opposed to gun ownership have lived a sheltered life, and are naive.

Furthermore, I wonder if women were armed in certain parts of the world, would there be stonings, honor-killings, etc.?

A feminist should be pro-gun.

#144 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.03.09 at 8:16 am

People opposed to gun ownership have lived a sheltered life, and are naive.

#141 char

Yeah, you must be right because after fighting in Viet Nam, being a Marine, and expert in both rifle and pistol, I haven’t a clue about guns or people.

Guns always solve the problem, they really do. Just ask any Redneck moron who thinks they are the judge, jury, and executioner. You can find them in most prisons.

Besides, having a gun will make you powerful and a Big Man (or woman).

#145 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.03.09 at 8:29 am

#138 jmcanuck

I agree with you. Long rifles and shotguns are generally not a crime problem…unless they are stolen. Handguns are usually the problem along with knives.

In the States the real reason for gun registration was to weed out (didn’t work obviously) those who are potentially dangerous due to mental dysfunctions or prior criminal activity.

The Gun Registry here made little sense to me, but the law enforcement industry may have better knowledge of how many long guns are actually involved. They do, I know for a fact, encounter them far more often in rural areas than urban.

Fact is, illegal guns will not be registered because the owners are not that stupid. The Black Market for firearms is massive, especially between the U.S. and Canada. Until the governments work together and severely penalize (prison and harsh fines) the traffickers in weapons, the problem will not be abated.

In the U.S. that falls to the BATF (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms. Here it is just whatever police agency is in authority as far as I know?

#146 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.03.09 at 8:41 am

why do 90.9% of those entering Real Estate quit in less than one year?”
#124 Devil’s Advocate

His points are correct, but he hasn’t really answered the Why? I think it is quite simple: because RE agencies are really all about the Broker, not the agents. The Broker brings on agents to do all the leg and paperwork. It is nothing more than the old pyramid scheme/scam. The Broker gets the benefits regardless by renting office space, advertising fees, and all the other things but the agent only gets the privilege of using the Broker’s license to play in the game.

People’s lust for wealth is what makes so many explore being an RE agent. Kind of the Tom Sawyer industry ‘See how much fun this is? Want to try it?’

Remember, they are ‘agents’ not employees, yet they have to do things as they are told. Another case of skipping an employer’s responsibility, which is the reason so few have any benefits or pension plans. Everyone is working ‘contract’ or ‘casual’ nowadays.

And people think the NDP don’t have a purpose?

#147 613 Happy where I am on 11.03.09 at 9:28 am

Enfin!

#148 jmcanuck on 11.03.09 at 2:46 pm

I just wanted to add to my previous post. In order to get a Firearms Acquisition Certificate which allows you to purchase and store firearms, you are required to take a 2 day (all day) safety course taught by a certified firearms instructor. You are required to prove that you are able to identify and handle firearms so that you and others are safe. Trigger locks and gun safes are law. We have enough rules and regulations. Criminals will follow none of them.

#149 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.04.09 at 8:48 am

#148 jmcanuck

Wow a whole two days? Funny, I spent a MONTH in training on firearms in the Marines. The goal: HIT THE TARGET! That would be from 200 metres to 1,000 metres using an M-14 with front blade and rear peep sights, no scopes. But then we were professionals trained to KILL the enemy. We also had mandatory marksmanship tests more commonly known as range qualification.

Two days is still better than none, but accuracy cannot be learned in two days, and accuracy makes the difference between hitting the intended target or an innocent. Also when to employ a fire4arm and when not to. I hope they include CPR, First Aide, and especially dealing with gunshot wounds? Never know when Dick Cheney may be nearby, eh? If guns were hammers then the dangers would be a lot less because the only one likely to be injured is the user.

#150 jmcanuck on 11.04.09 at 11:04 am

#149 Bill-Muskoka (NAM)

LOL! I shoot at pop cans mostly with a .22 from 50 yards so there hehe! Anyways the goal of the course is safe handling which can be taught in 2 days. Accuracy can be gained over time at the range.

#151 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 11.04.09 at 1:15 pm

#150 jmcanuck on 11.04.09 at 11:04 am

LOL! I shoot at pop cans

That is good to know. I always get a tad concerned about those who shoot cans after hearing the story of the Redneck who walked into the gun store and insisted on buying the biggest, most powerful handgun they had.

The shop owner asked him what he wanted to use the gun for and he replied ‘Shooting ‘cans!’

The shop owner told him all he needed for that was a .22, but the Redneck insisted on a 44 Magnum.

The shop owner asked him ‘What kind of cans are you wanting to shoot?’

The Redneck replied ‘Africans, Mexicans, Puerto Ricans!’

The shop owner sold him the gun anyway!