The inflated


Van realtor posting vids from his car. Big City GTA Broker renting a giant concert hall to give his views on life. Multiple bids in the midst of recession. Economists spewing market-pumping nonsense. Reporters lapping it up.

I’d say these are signs of an impending endgame in the current bubble world of real estate. Yeah, yeah, I know it’s been mere days since we had word of sick July sales, but when salesguys starting walking like deities, check your pulse.

As for the usual sources of impartial market wisdom, picture this: The hardest-hit manufacturing city in the country, where 15% of the workforce is out of work, where front lawn ‘for sale’ signs outnumber pooch droppings, where a house can be had for less than a minivan, and mere miles away sits the sad and crumbling hulk of a once-great American city, half its population fled.

And what does a noted bank economist say about Windsor’s economy and housing market?

“We expect to a return to more normal growth for Canada’s economy of about three per cent by early next year, and Windsor’s economy will benefit from the general improvement in economic conditions,” Sal Guatieri said during a panel discussion Wednesday on the state of the area’s housing market. The buyer’s market has come to an end and the number of listings reflects a good balance between listings and demand, said Guatieri. “Following last year’s slump it looks like Canada’s housing market is on a solid rebound,” he said.

See what I mean? The scary part is, a newspaper recorded the crap down and published it.

The truth is, there’s no fix for Windsor next year. Once factories close, they take eternities to reopen.

Truth is, there’s nothing but downside risk at the moment for all those young buyers bidding to buy condos from the Van cam man or the scary Brad Lamb. Sure, these guys (and so many of their colleagues) are superb at turning human greed, envy and ambition into offers, debt and cash flow. But it often means properties are being bought with less care than goes into finding the right pair of Capri pants.

And in some markets, like Vancouver, bubblification does not begin to describe what’s going on, as what’s essentially a small regional city drifts into a price range reserved for places that actually seem to matter. While I love Van and almost all of BC, there is no better example in North America right now of what local delusion (and a dashboard cam) can do to the commodity of housing.

Of course, this will not last. The reasons for my conviction have been fully mined here. All that remains less than crystal is the timing, and the catalyst events.

Maybe it’s an economist ho. Maybe a realtor rock star.

But we’re closer.


#1 sold in 2007 on 08.26.09 at 10:42 pm

Calgary prices down

#2 Verdad on 08.26.09 at 10:46 pm

Here comes more QE as now the BOC tries to control the rising Canadian dollar. 73% increase in EI recipients since June 2008. 5.1% increase from May 2009 to June 2009. Not pretty.

This also comes after the CBC in Manitoba ran a story telling how manufacturing businesses are quietly running in `work share`programs in order to avoid layoffs, however those layoffs may come in the fall as companies cannot sustain the `work share` indefinitely. Look at Buhler Industries, Monarch Industries.. etc.

#3 kc on 08.26.09 at 10:56 pm

Back in “dashcam frenzy” Some one posted this article from the Windsor Star, “Signs of awakening for Windsor’s comatose housing market”

for those of you that didn’t happen to read it, allow me to make 2 interesting observations.

1 – “The 21-year-old got pre-approval for a mortgage and started looking casually a year ago while he was still in college.” “Allen, who lives with his parents and is the kitchen manager for The Keg Steakhouse and Bar near Devonshire Mall, has an appointment today at his bank to see if he can get approval for a bigger mortgage now that he is earning more money and paying off his school debts.”

I have to ask, what is the best salary you can get in this job? $14 an hour? I am guessing. now in real logic what bank can approve a 6 figure loan and where this article fails to allow any real meat to it is how can this happen? He is already strapped with school payments so what type of 10% or 20% down can you save? Can’t we see the problem here? I have never been to Windsor so I can’t comment on the RE prices, however, something seems a miss.

a few paragraphs later:

2 – “The typical first-time buyer will be over 25 years old and working in a sector that hasn’t been hit hard during the recession, he said.”

HUH?? Is Windsor full of Government workers?? I would love to hear back from someone who lives there to explain this one please; I was under the impression that Windsor is suffering thruogh 15-18% unemployment. If this is the truth then you tell me what sector feels they arn’t affected. Do you guys have major grow ops and prostitution ???? i haven’t heard much of gun fights in the streets of Windsor.

full article


#4 Denis on 08.26.09 at 11:00 pm

I think this deserves a repost:

OK … I have a bone to pick with the Condo King’s latest and greatest Investor Newsletter – “June 2009 Brad J Lamb’s Investor News The Road To Millions” (

This guy’s an “expert” on TV and people will listen to him for … well … lack of a better education.

Page 3 Sickens Me because these RETURNS are worse than a GIC! The risk/reward ratio is completely out of whack!

“WILL THESE THREE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES CARRY WITH RENT??? Yes, They Will! These incredible investor buying opportunities will not last – we have perhaps 90-100 units that are priced at 2008 levels and will carry with a positive cash flow.”

Let’s break it down for those that don’t know how to analyze a Real Estate Deal:

Project Worklofts @ 25% Down ($53,975) will get you $51/month POSITIVE cash flow (RENT $1250 – COST $1199). That’s a whopping $612 over / ($53,975 down + let’s say $1000 closing costs) = 1.11% Cash on Cash Return!

Project Parc Lofts @ 25% Down ($52,225) will get you $45/month POSITIVE cash flow (RENT $1250 – COST $1205). That’s a whopping $540 over / ($52,225 down + let’s say $1000 closing costs) = 1.01% Cash on Cash Return!

Project The King East @ 25% Down ($62,475) will get you $15/month POSITIVE cash flow (RENT $1475 – COST $1460). That’s a whopping $180 over / ($62,475 down + let’s say $1000 closing costs) = 0.0028% Cash on Cash Return!

This means his investment strategy is entirely based on SPECULATION that the market will continue to go up from it’s current peak and you can unload the deal to a greater fool down the road (likely 2 years from now as per his note that rents would likely be higher at that time). There’s barely no room to cover short falls and you can get more return for far less risk in a cash or money market position.

This absolutely sickens me… Any fool can make money in an uptrend market, but it’s an entirely different ball game making money in a downtrend. Don’t be fooled … These aren’t investments, they are sales pitches disguised as investments so that someone can cash a commission cheque ($75M worth over the years) with little to no risk on their end on these “investments.”

#5 Verdad on 08.26.09 at 11:06 pm

From the States the new worries come from ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) rather than subprime mortgages. 60 mins had a special on this months ago.

#6 Denis on 08.26.09 at 11:06 pm

Holy Crap! “General Admission – $189.00” for this event?!?!?!?

#7 $fromA$ia "Garths Nugget Boy" on 08.26.09 at 11:11 pm

I wonder how much Brad J Lamb’s owes Flaherty???

I’d say this is pure RAPE to all unkowing Canadians getting into the housing market now.

#8 seanmhair on 08.26.09 at 11:12 pm

The Windsor Star is the shoddiest of rags. Our local media, for the most part is dreadful. And the cheerleading continues with the story of young Kyle Allen…

“But some, like Kyle Allen, are getting more serious about the hunt. The 21-year-old got pre-approval for a mortgage and started looking casually a year ago while he was still in college.

Allen, who lives with his parents and is the kitchen manager for The Keg Steakhouse and Bar near Devonshire Mall, has an appointment today at his bank to see if he can get approval for a bigger mortgage now that he is earning more money and paying off his school debts.

“The housing market is still not that great, so now is probably a good time to buy. It’s a good investment,” he said.

He has been working since he was 14 and is more determined to buy a home at this stage than most of his friends, who either rent or live with their parents, he said.

“I never wanted to get into renting … I don’t like spending my hard-earned money on something that isn’t mine.”

And of course, obligatory pitch by the pres of the local real estate board…

“I think we’re revving up now that we’re at the bottom,” said board president Mark Imeson.

What utter BS.

Article makes fairly clear that the surge in sales is not due to fist time buyers…so these are repeat offenders?

Anyhow Garth…thanks for highlighting our little burg. Hopefully you’ll come for a visit one day!

#9 nonplused on 08.26.09 at 11:16 pm

Who says they don’t ring a bell at the top? Bing!

The charts say the downtrend that started last year is still intact, Toronto possibly excepted but they are still way below the old trend.

The crisis that confronts us is three fold: no jobs, unrepayable debt, and dwindling energy supplies. This will play out despite the bailouts and happy talk.

#10 squidly77 on 08.26.09 at 11:20 pm

promoting a positive atmosphere is fine and expected
but there’s a limit between promotion and cheap and shear hype and sensationalism
every dog and cat knows that Calgary’s housing market is in for a nosedive the pump amd dump

calgary has its own ian watts

#11 Denis on 08.26.09 at 11:21 pm

So this is why Toronto will continue going up and is not in a bubble … thoughts?

From The Desk Of Brad J Lamb (
Now it isn’t everyday I post something written by a competitor however, I thought this article written in one of his newsletter’s a few months ago worthy of a post…

Brad J. Lamb Realty Newsletter, January 2009


Who could argue that Toronto is the best place in the world to invest in real estate?

What do I mean by that? Simply this – for safety of capital and future appreciation, where else in the world could be better?

Looking at Canada, Toronto has the country’s largest and most diverse economy and population. The GTA employs 3.1 Million people (1.35 Million in Toronto) in a massive array of sectors (automotive, banking & finance, information, manufacturing, bio-tech, construction, service, transportation and more). From through the 3rd quarter of 2008, Toronto’s economic growth rate has varied from 1.7% – 3.7% (rarely negative and usually not euphorically positive). This all bodes well for a stable, reasonable economy.

Over the past eight years, our residential real estate pricing has increased an average of 5% per year (from a low of 3% to a high of 8%). It’s difficult to fill a bubble with 5% annual price growth (or a 61% increase over 8 years).

Compare this to Vancouver (100% increase over 6 years), Calgary (44% increase over 2005), and Edmonton (57% increase over 2006), and you can see which cities have a bubble. Toronto is not one of them.

Toronto’s GTA enjoys a healthy population growth rate of approximately 2% per year – we are one of the fastest growing large cities in North America. Our downtown core is the most vibrant next to New York City and perhaps Chicago. We have experienced a phenomenal increase in spending and development in the arts with a new AGO, ROM, Opera House, National Ballet School, and soon to be completed Sony Centre, TIFF Bell LightBox among many other new and exciting world-class projects.

Toronto has never seen a five-star hotel until now, with the likes of the Shangri-La, The Four Seasons, Ritz-Carlton, Trump, and the Hazelton. Hip hotels like the Thompson, the Maple Leaf Square, “Le Germain,” and W’s Aloft are all under construction with NYC’s Gansevoort Hotel having just been announced. This has created a hotel explosion that will excite tourists from around the world.

Several new commercial high-rises are being built – The Telus Tower, RBC Centre, and Bay-Adelaide Centre along with a few more just completed and others on the drawing board.

New neighborhoods and hold have been dramatically altered; Yorkville will never be the same with thousands of new high-end condos completed and being built (The Regency, 18 Yorkville, One St. Thomas, The Four Seasons, The Windsor Arms, The Museum House, One Bedford, 100 Yorkville, and more). This small village will literally burst with eager new customers for all the shops and restaurants.

King West has seen the creation and reinforcement of three new neighborhoods.

King/Spadina has boomed with development (M5V, Glas, The Hudson, Charlie, Victory, Quad Lofts, District Lofts, Charlotte Lofts, and the Festival Tower).

King/Niagara has exploded with growth, becoming one of the hippest, most sought-after neighborhoods to reside. The area has filled with restaurants, cafes, bars, and design stores, not to mention thousands of new condominium homes (66 Portland, 20 Stewart, 32 Stewart, Zed, 60 Bathurst, 550 Wellington Condominium & Hotel, 75 Portland, 650 King West, The Fashion House, 455 Adelaide, 20 Niagara, 400 Wellington, and more).

King/Strachan and Liberty Village have been created from scratch. A master plan was devised to include an emphasis on both business and commercial development with residential growth. Virtually every residential building was created or launched within the last ten years (Parc, 1000 King, 984 King, The Toy Factory, DNA, Bridge, The King West, The Liberty Village, 1001 King Street West, etc.).

Cityplace was carved out of a rail yard waste-land, the 9500 new homes (some 19 buildings) have changed the face of Toronto for the better (not necessarily the best) and filled the downtown core with 20,000 new people to feed the economy and enliven the streets.

We are so lucky to have experienced this all in a little over a decade. The last thirteen years have seen more changes to Toronto than in the previous thirty years. Toronto The Good is now also Toronto the Big, Rich, Fun, and Safe.

There is no better place to live or do business when you look at all the aspects of what is important to people. We are a rich city, but on a global scale we are not expensive. I believe that Toronto should rank as the #1 city in the world to live. Canadian banks are the safest, most profitable, and least risky on the planet, and most of the head offices are in our downtown.

We are the only G20 country that maintained a national government surplus for the last thirteen years and partly because of this, we are least affected by the economic crisis. We have literally reduced our national debt by $105 Billion or 19% over those thirteen years. We are the financial envy of most of the world.

We have the second largest oil reserves on the planet. We have huge resources of water, gold, uranium, nickel, diamonds, potash, wood, grain, beef, and virtually every other natural resource possible.

We offer free medical aid to all that need it. We have a respected rule of law, and a very low murder rate that keeps our citizens safe. Our universities are rated as some of the best in the world, educating and training our students to become a part of an extremely competent workforce.

Toronto is one of the most sought-after settlement locations for immigrants of the world to live, and because of this our population grows steadily and offers a true multicultural feel to our city. Torontonians and Canadians are truly blessed with a fantastic standard of living. It’s so easy to take all of this for granted.

Many people seem intent on betting against Toronto. There is perverse pleasure in another’s failure. Negativity puts bums in seats, but as Torontonians we will not go backwards. This is a forward-moving, prosperous and growing city. The explosion of mostly good growth will continue, at a slower pace, but it will continue.

Our beautiful, rich, clean, safe, fun, tolerant, racially diverse city will flourish. It will be a better, richer city still, and yes, that means that real estate prices will rise over the medium and long term.

If you bet against Toronto, you will lose.

Where is the best place in the world to invest in real estate?

I tell you without any doubt, it is Toronto.

#12 Jon B on 08.26.09 at 11:30 pm

Brad Lamb is Brad Lamb’s biggest fan. Way to go on the self-promotional efforts.

#13 North Van Dude on 08.26.09 at 11:31 pm

On the subject of economist hos, during the Las Vegas housing boom, it was common for strippers to work as real estate agents during the day. The clubs had to crack down on strippers handing out their RE agent cards after lapdance sessions.

#14 Greely on 08.26.09 at 11:34 pm

The catalyst will begin the day after the closing ceremonies for 2010.

#15 Grumpydawgs on 08.26.09 at 11:46 pm

Garth, the truth, the reality and the spin are all following differant orbits. Listings in the most expensive areas are sprouting like mushrooms in Van-Dizzy and sold signs are rare in the above 500K area. But…still we read these stories in the papers about a booming market. it sure isn’t obvious to the average person driving through street after street with multiple for sale signs here.

Oue unemployment numbers keep going up. More people are maxed out and going bankrupt than ever before.

I really think the PTB are selling a full court press to us. I hear what is supposed to be happening but it doesn’t seem to be registering with my eyes.

#16 alberta ed on 08.27.09 at 12:10 am

Lessee, here: Alberta’s in the tank, BC likewise. The pols’ response is to press their palms together and raise their eyes to the heavens, in hopes the Deity will sprinkle manna upon them. Meanwhile, natural gas is in the tank, and so are revenues, BC can’t tax the pot industry, Alberta doesn’t have one, CanWest mouthpieces are heralding the end of the recession, and Ben Bernanke has been reappointed. Something smells funny…

#17 BigAl (Original on 08.27.09 at 12:14 am

Question for Everybody: What happens to easy-lending practices if prices go down, economy gets worse, and interest rates rise (particularly for someone whose income is unaffected by the economy)?

Does the no-money-down or 5 % down disappear? Does cash-back disappear? Do lenders become more tight? Or do these still exist in such times?

#18 Onemorething on 08.27.09 at 12:35 am

Brad knows the end is near. Does anyone know if he actually owns any RE? The point is any big player I know out there is out of the RE game whether Res or Comm RE and sitting in wait.

The global elite just love this new bubble forming, or do they? How will they emerge? It will all be relative but one thing is for sure, the sheeple will not fair well as they will be forced to deal with debt and deflation for years to come.

#19 Munch on 08.27.09 at 1:37 am

Superb Garth!

“an economist ho” – absolutely superb!

And, of course, your analysis is spot on too!

When the “realtor ho’s” become idols and role models, then you just have to KNOW that we are near to a big, big change!

In South Africa, yesterday the Army stormed the Union Buildings (your equivalent of the White House) looking for more pay – the police fired rubber bullets at them, and THEN the fun started!

Another day in Africa!

#20 timbo on 08.27.09 at 1:56 am

So sad how our system rewards the exec.

“And Northville-based wheel producer Hayes Lemmerz International Inc. wants permission to pay more than $10 million in bonuses, including as much as $6.7 million to its top five execs.

Just Friday, however, Hayes proposed canceling its retiree health and life insurance coverage for households covering 2,200 families.”

Recessions are sure tough for some, are they not?

#21 Skye on 08.27.09 at 2:51 am

When the lights go out in Vancouver after the Owe-lympics it’s going to be a dark dark winter

#22 Mike (Authentic) on 08.27.09 at 3:06 am

The USA “pays it forward” economic policies:

1. With the “Cash for Clunkers” program at an end, 700,000 cars were sold. Toyota profited the most and only 2 out of the top 10 cars were from North American manufacturers. Program ended on Monday.

2. $8000 per family to purchase a new home in the USA, expires November. So far, 37% increase in new home starts and RE sales are up due to this new program.

The USA is eating up future demand for demand today. It’s quite the economic gamble. Toyota has already started shutting down the extra manufacturing lines and re-laying the brought back workers off again. Home Depot stock is up and so house salesmen are pointing fingers that “really, this is the bottom, this time” due to the increase in mortgage applications (80% of who used the $8k program).

“pays it forward” economic policies…

What do you think Garth?

As you were a Finance Minister, is this a good idea or bad one for the future and the recession?


#23 Don Ho on 08.27.09 at 3:10 am

That’s just it, people lack financial literacy or think they do see #18 Kate from the dashcam discussion…

People think they are financially savvy but are sadly not! These are the folks who are tripping over each other to out bit one another for overpriced RE.

Throw in the media publishing all this cheer leading and bubble pumper BS from folks mentioned above, no wonder we have a second bubble.

#24 Mike (Authentic) on 08.27.09 at 3:40 am

I can’t help it, I feel aweful for all the people who buy into the media spin that “Things are returning to normal”. You know things are not, we are just on a slippery slope going down. And you really don’t want people to lose their hard earned after-tax dollars.

Maybe that is what drives us here and many others so much to educate others on what is really happening behind the scenes?

You will easily notice those who have “skin in the game” spin the news to their advantage. Be them RE speculators, house salesmen(R), or most media (ad dollars). Ask yourself “Are they helping you or helping themselves?”

When the world revolves around aquiring little bits of paper and the goal is to collect as many of thm as you can before you die rather than help your fellow man and make their future brighter, we live on a sad little blue planet.


#25 Ky on 08.27.09 at 4:47 am

Scary? Yes. A newspaper covers what is essentially a BMO sales event, and regurgigates this as news. Funny too, because that particular Canwest paper, and other outlets in that media family, shy away from reporting the inevitable re-structuring of Canwest itself, which methinks is a much more newsworthy story. They face yet another major deadline on that re-structuring this Friday. Whatever…

#26 GOGREEN on 08.27.09 at 5:29 am

Talking about disappearing Canadian jobs, Viewest says:

“The manual labour jobs are gone and what will be the impact now that the next tier up is set to be ‘offshored’.”

Think of this, Viewest, real estate legal work might even be offshorable !

As the Royal Bank legal counsel said in the newspaper, “due diligence, contract review, legal research, lease abstracting” might just be offshorable.

They might even manage the MLS Listings from Bombay. The real estate agent might become a managing consultant in which case, he might go from commission to hourly wages like many others have. And the broksters would make an even bigger killing!

Me think, it is the bubble in Asia that is being re-inflated, ’cause the Canadian bubble is bust beyond repair.

So what is the future of the Canadian white collars? The “salt mines” or the tar sands? Well, the tar sands might be out, but could ……….

………..Salvation could come from going GREEN (with envy!?).

#27 Fool me once... on 08.27.09 at 6:26 am

My father was in the development business in Vancouver for 50 years before he retired. Yes, he was bit hard in 82. He and his retired development colleagues all think this is the worst nonsense they’ve seen. Hearing them talk while watching the news over at his place the other night is “deja vu all over again”. It reminded me of watching CMBC in the late nineties. All the old dyed in the wool market watchers were saying something really smelt funny referencing the dot com phenomena. While all along the young Wall Street wiz kids were justifying the “New Economy” and not to worry, it wasn’t over valued, just keep partying.

Well we all know what happened.

#28 David Bakody on 08.27.09 at 7:08 am

The question now is how close is close? From this mornings news there must be something up as many of the rats ( pardon the expression) are jumping from the SS Reform/Alliance/Conservative to the Senate. Could they be seeking higher safer ground?

#29 JO on 08.27.09 at 7:10 am

The current sentiment in housing is even worse than the sentiment toward tech stocks in March 2000. Having family in the US, I recall going there in 2005/6 and getting the same reaction about real estate. The extreme optimism is shocking. It will end in tears. The gigantic mountain of debt has been able to keep growing in Canada thanks to: a sufficient number of moron buyers, artifically low rates that happened only because the bond market still senses a coming deflation and thanks to many billions used from taxpayers to pay banks for mortgages, the ongoing ability to use taxpayer financed intervention through CMHC (and to a lesser extent CDIC) to allow the weakest buyers to get into the housing market, and others. Ironically, if you are caught running a ponzi scheme, you will likely go to jail, but our gov’t/central bank/ banks run the greatest ponzi scheme in the land (as is the case the world over for the most part): a debt based, fiat money, highly leveraged fractional reserve system. Like all ponzi schemes it will collapse relatively quickly and those who got in towards the end are left with nothing.

The tragedy that awaits us is going to shock everyone. What you can count on is many of these marginal buyers will come back for a bailout of sorts using taxpayer money as they look to someone to bail them out of their greed and stupidity.

I try to avoid giving my opinion anymore as I get ridiculed and laughed at..these clowns keep saying ” housing has one way to go and that is up better buy…”.

#30 View from the South on 08.27.09 at 7:23 am

#3 kc

I live in Windsor, have nearly all my life. I work for the lower caste, post-secondary school here. We are bracing for the largest enrollment ever. Nearly 1000 new students will be “Second Career” or CAW sponsored. As a provincial employee I felt pretty secure that I could ride this thing out without much stress. In the spring I got “bumped” to another job, we shed 25 support jobs, nearly shit my pants, started saving bigger chunks of mine and the missus’ paychecks.

There are very few in this town that aren’t looking over their shoulder or driving by foodbanks and noting their location and hours.

You can hardly go one block without seeing a for sale sign. According to Maclean’s we have the 5th worst managed city gov’t and we have a mayor that has decided to spend millions on consultants to design a new freeway (provincial gov’t is responsible for that) to a new bridge that may never be built. Add to that millions more for lawyers to fight the province’s freeway design and the local billionaire that owns and operates the existing bridge and…

The only reason for unemployment numbers to go down here is that people are starting to fall off the roll. The only reason for home sales to rise are stupid kids thinking they’re getting the deal of a lifetime or vultures coming in and picking up POS properties to hold.

Come by for a coffee and I’ll tell you how I really feel.

#31 john m on 08.27.09 at 7:35 am

Our Economy is Headed for disaster–but its politics as usual in the Harper “flip flop no were not” government. More needless appointments at taxpayer expense–ah yes just what we need!>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Daniel Leblanc

Ottawa — The Globe and Mail Last updated on Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2009 10:42PM EDT

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is set to fill Senate vacancies with some of his closest Conservative backers in the second round of Red Chamber patronage appointments in less than a year.

Mr. Harper’s campaign chair, Doug Finley, and his long-time communications assistant, Carolyn Stewart-Olsen, are set to become senators in the coming days. Conservative Party president Don Plett is also on the list of Senate nominees.

Mr. Finley was a key player in the controversial “in-and-out” advertising system in the 2006 election, in which the Conservative Party sent funds to local campaigns to buy national television ads. The strategy allowed the party to stay within maximum spending limits, but has come under sharp criticism by Elections Canada. Mr. Finley is expected to take an Ontario seat, while Mr. Plett will be a Manitoba senator and Ms. Stewart-Olsen will represent New Brunswick.

This is the second time in a row that Mr. Harper has appointed senators when Parliament is not sitting, allowing him to escape opposition attacks. He named 18 new Conservative senators to the Liberal-dominated chamber last December, just before Christmas, including party fundraisers and officials.

#32 pbrasseur on 08.27.09 at 7:43 am

@Denis (#11)

It is not about betting against Toronto, Vancouver or any other place, as wonderful as they may be.

It’s about betting against an unsustainable unbalance in the market, and frankly in this case that’s an easy bet to make.

Right now the RE market is clearly unbalanced because it is not sustained by actual increases in wealth, productivity or income but rather by an unsustainable growth in indebtment.

Because it is unsustainable growth will eventually stop, or at best slow. When that happens, supply will exceed demand and prices WILL come down, over capacity will also come into play and create even more economic pain (and make economic recovery more difficult in Canada).

Will we get a soft landing with slow deflation or a crash? That we don’t know, it will depend on many things including the rest of the economy, commodity markets, government intervention, etc…

#33 seanmhair on 08.27.09 at 7:50 am

#3 kc on 08.26.09 at 10:56 pm

HUH?? Is Windsor full of Government workers?? I would love to hear back from someone who lives there to explain this one please; I was under the impression that Windsor is suffering thruogh 15-18% unemployment. If this is the truth then you tell me what sector feels they arn’t affected. Do you guys have major grow ops and prostitution ???? i haven’t heard much of gun fights in the streets of Windsor.

Your perception in bang on…dearth of government workers here.

Unemployment is 15.3%…not factoring in those who don’t qualify for EI, have stopped looking or are underemployed. Applications for Ontario Works have increased substantially, food banks are running dry, social service agencies are terminating staff due to reduced contributions/funding to organisations like United Way. The Downtown Mission and Salvation Army are feeding and helping more and more. Foreclosures abound.

And those 5 extra weeks of EI so generously bestowed by our PM before he left for summer vacation? They’ll be running out soon. The employment numbers will then improve….they’ll be off the official rolls.

But all of this is NOT reported and remains mostly out of sight/out of mind.

The weird thing is…every time I drive past the mall or Home Depot, the parking lots are packed. Seems consumerism still reigns.

#34 X on 08.27.09 at 7:55 am

The first paragraph from todays post:

Van realtor posting vids from his car. Big City GTA Broker renting a giant concert hall to give his views on life. Multiple bids in the midst of recession. Economists spewing market-pumping nonsense. Reporters lapping it up.

Sounds like it could have been written 10 years ago about the tech bubble.

Van chip maker starts up from his garage. Big City GTA programmer renting a giant concert hall to give his views on life. Multiple bids in the midst of recession for start ups with no profit. Economists spewing market-pumping nonsense. Reporters lapping it up.

And we all know how that turned out.

These things do take time to unravel. However I have no intention of buying todays Nortel from Mr. Lamb.

#35 mattbg on 08.27.09 at 7:58 am

I have stopped trying to guess where this is going and am just sticking to common sense with respect to my own behaviour. That is, if I don’t understand it then I won’t get involved. I have a small house that I bought about 6 years ago with a good downpayment, but I bought it to live in, not as an investment. I accept the argument for renting in a declining market, but there’s more to life than profit.

I am amazed that so many people on here seem to think they know what will happen after having been wrong so many times before. I was one of those people that thought it was going to come crashing down, and it hasn’t.

I am amazed we can go through such a bad recession without any visible impact — at least in the MSM. It’s almost as if we think we can fight economic wars the same way we’ve figured out how to fight military wars — at arm’s length with no sacrifice or local consequence.

Look at the US debt projections. They will not have paid off the debt taken on by this recession by the time the next one hits. They are in a debt spiral. And that says nothing about the unknown effects of energy prices that will accompany any recovery. And we hear hardly anything about it in the MSM?

Did Harper do the right thing about being nonchalant on stimulus? Germany was heavily criticized for not doing more stimulus-wise and they are now apparently on the way out of recession along with other Euro countries that spent far more.

Can we believe the economic figures?

I don’t expect it to end well, but as far as predictions and timelines go… I’m tired of hearing myself talk!

#36 miketheengineer on 08.27.09 at 7:59 am

Garth et al:

Swine Flu Video – Important Information

Sorry to be off topic, but you must see this interview with this doctor about the swine flu. I watched all 6 segments.

After watching this, I don’t think I will every allow a member of my family to get a flu shot.

#37 Andrew toronto on 08.27.09 at 8:41 am

Mike (Authentic) poster #22

can’t work see this Video on utube explains why, to me anyways

#38 dave99 on 08.27.09 at 8:55 am

A tale from the front lines…

An actor friend of mine recently bought (5% down), against my strongest advice to the contrary.

He’s mid-30s, living with his gf and her daughter. They bought in April, paid $335 for a house in Toronto’s Beaches originally listed at $385. His dad does flooring and his friend is a painter, so they did a low cost reno and I must admit it looks fantastic.

He lives on the 2nd/3rd floors, and rents out the first floor for $1000/month.

He originally went variable, but then locked in at 3.9% for 5 years. His carrying costs (excluding principle) are $1500/month.

Therefore net of his income from his renter, his carrying costs are $500. He is paying $1500 a month (equal to what , which allows him to pay down his principle to the tune of $1k/month ($60k over his 5 year term).

Including the low cost but very effective reno he did, this means he’ll have 20-25% equity at today’s prices when his mortgage comes up for renewal in 5 years.

My feeling (like many on this board), is that prices will have dropped, and his 25% equity at todays prices might be only 5% in 5years.

Nonetheless, for his relationship with his gf, and for his peace of mind, I think he’s made the right play.

Again, I note that he bought at the perfect time of the market, and snagged a fixed rate at the perfect time.

However I just wanted to be fair and show that not all first time buyers are profligate and reckless spenders.

#39 dontcallmeshirley on 08.27.09 at 8:57 am

“Of course, this will not last. The reasons for my conviction have been fully mined here. All that remains less than crystal is the timing, and the catalyst events.”

That would be a useful post, however, it will oblige quite a bit of homework to be done first.

I humbly provide you with starting points:

1. the catalyst – the BofC changes policy and stops / slows the supply of liquidity.

2. timing – whenever the Liberals take back the big chair

How you like them apples?

Explain (2). — Garth

#40 Gord In Vancouver on 08.27.09 at 8:59 am

Vancouver’s spike in real estate sales may also be attributed to the impending introduction of the HST (July 2010), which’ll add 7% to the price of a new home.

Surprisingly though, real estate prices have struggled to exceed their 2008 levels. After you read this, you’ll understand why many potential buyers have refrained from participating in this real estate sales “rally” and people have sold into it:

#41 Wealthy Renter on 08.27.09 at 9:01 am

Think of this, Viewest, real estate legal work might even be offshorable!

Go Green,

I’ll take your logic one step further, into wilder speculation. Looking 20 years out, the realty business could be supplanted by technology, or at least it could be radically different.

If anybody has children or knows young adults, they know that many young people won’t pay for anything they can get off the net for free: books, movies, music, video games.

Combine this with the fact middle class kids’ lives are online via various social network sites, and I can’t see anybody under the age of 21 who will be willing to pay tens of thousands for information they can get off the web for free.

Realtors have a lock on the baby boom market, but the 20-somethings of today can change thier habits on a dime. Give them Facebook Realty or Google Realty and connect them with some legal and engineering expertise (inspections etc.,) and they will sell homes to each other.

#42 Tim on 08.27.09 at 9:06 am

Living in Alberta, where I’ve had too friends, both of whom make in the 30 000 to 40 000 range, approved to be houses worth 440 000 and 650 000 respectively.

Isn’t that insane? And, when I urged caution, the one who bought the 440 000 dollar mobile home (yes, they’re everywhere in the West) reasoned that it would be worth over 2 000 000 bucks in 5 years.

The notion, of course, was a regurgitation of the Realtors notion (re: salespitch).

So, another twenty-something debt slave in the services of the Baby Boomer generation that is selling the nation and it’s future up the river.

#43 $fromA$ia "Garths Nugget Boy" on 08.27.09 at 9:09 am

At least Brad J Lamb has the balll$ not to wear a hair piece you can never tell what Flaherty is hiding under his.

#44 Calgary_rip_off on 08.27.09 at 9:13 am


Please no more headlines of realtor goons. This guy hasnt produced anything worthwhile-all he has done is profited on an exchange. This isnt production. Id rather be dead than be this idiot. Its not like he trained for anything and actually did something with his life. He’s pathetic.

Squiddly and others who think Calgary will implode: Be realistic. A bubble? Yes. Housing from $400K to $200K? Unlikely. Calgary is unlikely to go back to pre bubble pricing because the prevailing mentality is acceptance of the bogus pricing. There is one thing that will force that pricing to happen: Interest rates. Why would the bank of Canada do that though-to force prices through the ground? This argument doesnt make sense logically.

Sure oil and gas are down. Sure there are layoffs. But this isnt 1982-yet. Present some prevailing evidence of concrete things to substantiate your argument.

As for me, I’ll get back to my Bach fugues and Yngwie style guitar. :)

#45 613 Happy where I am on 08.27.09 at 9:19 am

So Garth, you think Vamcouver (and the rest of BC for that matter) is not a place that actually matters….

Well in the greater scheme of things I agree… Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Calgary, Halifax and Vamcouver hardly get noticed when asked which cities are world-class… The ones that make the list (NYC, London, Paris, Tokyo) have long dominated.

Which further explains the lunacy of the Canadian real estate market which, at the height of a global recession, continues to reach for the stratisphere and defy common sense and logic.

Remember, people, that it is the real estate MARKET we are talking about, and what goes up, will eventually come down. The only question in my mind is when….

#46 greyhound on 08.27.09 at 9:35 am

Garth says, “All that remains less than crystal is the timing…”
This reminds me of a quote from Morgan Stanley chief US economist Richard Berner,
“The problem, ironically, is that the day of reckoning hasn’t come. This has seriously undermined doomsayers’ credibility…”
It’s as if the housing market has a form of prostate cancer; we’d love to spring for a summer cottage, but we’re likely to remain in “watchful waiting” mode for quite a while yet.

The moment’s arrival will be quite obvious. As always, I will attempt to preview it. — Garth

#47 Jake on 08.27.09 at 9:44 am

Blobby from yesterday,
Watch the video again. He is not talking about giving the people the house for free. He is talking about reducing the mortgage amount down to market value. Let me explain it to you. If I owed 700K on a house that is now worth 600K, the amount I owed would be brought down to 600K. So given that the market value is now 600K I could not sell it for the 700K and take advantage of the system. The past few years have seen an artificial inflation of the markets that a lot of people/institutions are responsible for. What Dr. Hudson is recommending is another type of bailout; a bailout that ensures homeowners are not underwater, not a bailout that ensures bankers get their multimillion dollar bonuses. This type of bailout would ensure that the people benefit from the bailout they will pay for. And it is not just people who made stupid choices who are underwater. More than half of American homeowners will be underwater soon. Get it? If this still isn’t clear I could make some finger puppets and prepare a visual demonstration. Or perhaps you prefer interpretive dance?

#48 Dracula on 08.27.09 at 9:55 am

To Denis.
Well, thisis quite a bold statement that Toronto is the best place on earth. I would say dellusional. And the only example to sustain that claim are the comparisont against other North American cities. So, be vonsistent, compare it against Paris, Rome or London, Berlin etc…

#49 lgre on 08.27.09 at 10:08 am

#41 Wealthy Renter on 08.27.09 at 9:01 am

I agree with your logic, I think the younger generation and the internet will eventually abolish realtors to a minimum. I myself have sold a property online a few years back. It can be done with a little creativity, at the end of the day..the house sells itself.

#50 Jake on 08.27.09 at 10:11 am

Has anyone considered the effects that the planned swine flu outbreak will have on Vancouver’s olympics/economy? What if the olympics had to be cancelled due to the swine flu……..probably would not bode well for the city’s future. That place will tank after the olympics even if they are a success.

Speaking of swine flu vaccines, I will let you know if there are any adverse side effects as I am sure I will be forced to take it as a med student. This fall is going to be interesting indeed.

#51 Denis on 08.27.09 at 10:16 am

#43 $fromA$ia “Garths Nugget Boy” on 08.27.09 at 9:09 am

At least Brad J Lamb has the balll$ not to wear a hair piece you can never tell what Flaherty is hiding under his.
Bahahaha! thanks for the laugh!

#52 POL-CAN on 08.27.09 at 10:17 am

Newest scam? This actually makes sense in the under water US market….

Heard about the new real estate scam? (hint – realtors ain’t done yet)

Everyone heard about the new realtor/homedebtor scam?

I’ll sum it up as quick as I can.

1) F*cked homedebtor owes $500,000 on a place now worth $250,000. But they’re still employed, can still borrow from a stupid bank (who sells the paper to Fannie)

2) Encouraged by realtors and mortgage brokers, the upside down homedebtor buys the similar place across the street for $250,000.

3) F*cked homedebtor then stops paying on their original home, as they move into their new home. They rent out the old home and earn $2,000 a month cash

4) A year goes by, the homedebtor is finally foreclosed, up $24,000 in cash, and has a $250,000 mortgage instead of a $500,000 one.

America. What a country.

#53 tjmikey on 08.27.09 at 10:22 am

The irony of The “Brad Lamb’s” of the world is that given the personality type and the road that has brought us to where we are….they could all be in serious financial dire straits, living in their own personal ponzi scheme, levered to the max…ala John Torode.

#54 Ottawa_Tradesguy on 08.27.09 at 10:25 am

I’ve been a fairly avid follower of this blog for the past year as I own a rental property in downtown TO that I bought at what I thought was the peak of the market (sept 07) with a 25% downpayment and a variable rate mortgage (currently 1.3%….).

However, one of the things that I’ve noticed over the past 6 months or so of reading this blog nearly every day is the complete lack of factual information presented on a daily basis. I find it interesting that we on here criticize the realtors, economists, and other so-called scammers for using rhetoric, anecdotes and other tactics to pump up the market and get people to assume debt and yet generally fail to present our own analysis based on true factual information as to why real estate will crash (or as Garth is now saying ‘correct’…. perhaps the book should have been called ‘after the somewhat smaller than anticipated correction’). I remain convinced that a real estate correction is coming, but remain fairly secure in the knowledge that my rental income is solid, I can afford the mortgage if interest rates quadruple and that the location of my property will help minimize the impact of a correction (after all isn’t real estate all about location, location, location?).

I would like to see someone present an analysis (Garth or otherwise) of the following:

1.) How many of the recently issued mortgages have less than a 10% downpayment against them?
2.) How many mortgages are on less than a 5 year term (e.g., 2 year term with rapidly resetting mortgage rate)?
3.) How many mortgages have been issued to prime borrowers and how many to so-called ‘sub-prime’ borrowers?
4.) What is the breaking point for a real estate correction in terms of unemployment (9%, 9.5%, 10%, higher?)
5.) How many recently issued mortgages are on long-term ammortizations (longer than 25 years)?
6.) What percentage of buyers in markets like Vancouver are actually foreign buyers?
7.) What is the breakdown of property sales by quintile (e.g., the top 20% of properties sold for a minimum of $X in Toronto, the next 20% between z and y, etc.)

While the rhetoric, cute anecdotes and interesting pictures are great for getting the blogdogs all riled up and drooling at the mouth over the impending correction they really do nothing in terms of presenting a truly factual case as to why real estate will crash based on fundamentals. Thus far the only true arguement I have seen for real estate crashing is that the ‘average’ price of a home is well out of line with long-term averages (3x – 3.5X average family income).

Anyway, long stort short perhaps if we plan on asking more of the MSM, Economists and realtors we should also ask more of ourselves.


The tradesguy

Those statistics, almost in their entirely, do not exist in Canada. Some sales stats are available from local real estate boards, like TREB or GVREB, but only in general broad sales catergories. Besides, this is not a research site. You are free to do your own work for your own understanding. As for the title of my recent book (I gather you have not read it), the ‘crash’ refers to the financial markets colapse in the autumn of 2008. Nowhere have I used the word ‘crash’ here or in my book to describe the Canadian housing market. It will correct, and to the degree I have indicated, for the reasons fully explained in recent posts. — Garth

#55 Peter Wiener on 08.27.09 at 10:25 am

# 11 Denis
# 29 Jo

Brad Lamb’s list of new developments should be a warning of, not an endorsement of this bubble – review the same msm sh#t from 1989 re Toronto real estate.

It is THE END OF THE CYCLE, not the beginning. His assertations, opinions and facts cited are of WHAT HAS HAPPENED, that is now past , in effect, history.

“Trees do not grow to the sky.”

Everybody that has bet that they do, especially late in that cycle, FROM THE DAWN OF COMMERCIAL HISTORY has lost heavily on their investments, period.
NO EXCEPTIONS EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

To argue anything else is to defy thousands of years of cumulative history and millions of individual deals gone bad. Consider it a form of financial gravity that always asserts itself, and as per Murphy’s Law, usually at the most inconvenient time.

Toronto is a backwater compared to cities like Paris, Madrid, London, New York, L.A., even Chicago or San Francisco – and ALL OF THEIR MARKETS ARE DOWN HARD and going lower. They have all followed the above maxim “trees do not grow to the sky”, why wouldn’t Toronto.

In Canada this is simply a mania, a crowd run amok enabled by a spineless Central Bank. My money is on historical precedent.

#56 kc on 08.27.09 at 10:39 am

30 View from the South

“Come by for a coffee and I’ll tell you how I really feel.”

Would love to, however I can’t afford the westjet air fare. Feel free to let it fly in here…

33 seanmhair

“But all of this is NOT reported and remains mostly out of sight/out of mind.”

That statement is the real truth of the crux we face. On any MSM outlet we DON’T hear about the 200-400 occupants of tent cities that dot the US. We DON’t hear about how bad it is in Ireland, Scotland, Spain… ect. We DON’T hear about the plight of the common “Joe” who is struggling with 2 jobs, 2 kids, and that “suckers mortgage” …

All we hear are happy times are here, spend & buy …

Now when examined closer these same people (or media types) tout this mantra, if you read it on the web and not from us, are you getting the facts? or DON’T believe everthing you read on line… (true some stuff is pure BS) however, when you google tent cities and look for yourself… ask why haven’t I seen this on MSM?


#57 Timmay on 08.27.09 at 10:41 am

The real estate pumping machine is in high gear, totally trying to suck anyone into the game so they can make a sale. They truly are not professional people, they are simply salespeople. Do you expect anything different from a salesperson? The Dashcam dude looks about 30 or so, so has no clue what a recession looks or feels like. Inexperienced, inept, annoying!

#58 Chris S. on 08.27.09 at 10:47 am

Garth for Minister of Consumer Affairs (unrolled from Industry Canada).

#59 Basil Fawlty on 08.27.09 at 10:48 am

Most realtors could care less about their clients or especially the general public. They only care about making the sale. Some of them get rich though hustling and then become prima donnas who figure they are Gods gift to humanity. Only hearing the word realtor causes me to warn young children about these massive egos posing as professionals.

#60 Denis on 08.27.09 at 10:49 am

#32 pbrasseur on 08.27.09 at 7:43 am

Completely agree with you. I’m trying to break apart the “facts” in his “From the desk of …” post.

Toronto’s unemployment rate is higher than the National Average ( … yet the local RE market is at it’s all-time high?

Toronto is still very much in a VERY unbalanced ( and and if you were a technical analyst you would say we’re hitting a double top with statements like this one “A $378,700 price is spitting distance of the $379,347 average price recorded at the end of 2008.” (

#48 Dracula on 08.27.09 at 9:55 am

I love Toronto, but after traveling a fair bit this summer in Europe, where they’re experiencing rapid declines in RE prices and you look back here in our Market. What the hell is so different here?

#61 RJAG2034 on 08.27.09 at 10:52 am

Meanwhile in Victoria where ‘its different here’ the Islands only Acura dealer closes his doors this weekend and reopens next week as a KIA dealer “high end cars arent selling anymore” he says…..

#62 Ottawa_Tradesguy on 08.27.09 at 10:56 am

Hi Garth,

Thanks for responding. I understand the reasons as you have stated them. My point is simply that at this juncture in time our views / opinions on why real estate will correct have no more substance that those who say it will keep going up for whatever reason (economic recovery, cost of debt, increased immigration, whatever….).

I suspect that these statistics (if someone had the time to put them together) would vastly help prove or disprove the theories as to why real estate will crash.

Unfortunately, I ran into this problem when I worked for a top 4 consulting firm in Canada — whenever we tried to do any research on Canada there was so little data available we could not draw an accurate, factual conclusion from the available datapoints.



#63 TorontoBull on 08.27.09 at 11:03 am

So Garth believes that investing in the stock market is the way to go.
On the other hand, Mish believes that “Buy and Hold Still Bad Advice”

Who do we trust? I personally will sleep on stuffed with cash mattress in the near future, considering how post-bubble economies tend to develop.
Opinions appreciated

There is no black-or-white scenario, and one size does not fit all. My own balance is 65% financial assets (equties and fixed income) and 35% real assets, with 0% debt. Smart people will ensure that, above all, they are not overweight in any one asset. Even cash. — Garth

#64 X on 08.27.09 at 11:11 am

A reporter that might just get it.

#65 CM on 08.27.09 at 11:26 am

For those who say that interest rates need to skyrocket for the value of homes to plummet, just curious as to why you think that?

From what I saw in the U.S., they fell by over 30% without any help at all from skyrocketing interest rates.

#66 Windsorite on 08.27.09 at 11:38 am

I like your article Garth you are bang on! things in Windsor right now are very bad no jobs, high unemployment but yet the local media here is trying to spin it that things are turing around for our city in the real estate market. here is something for you windsorites that read this article. Some idiot posted this in the windsor star forums.

August 26, 2009 – 11:57 PMFlag this as Inappropriate If you have an employable skill set and your position seems secure either stateside or locally, then one can understand why this young man is buying a house. Record low interest rates and very low affordability factor in the Windsor area is facilitating this upward movement in 2009.

For the people who have left, its great that you found employment elsewhere but, the city is not garbage or anything close to Detroit. Detroit’s decay has occurred over numerous decades. One can’t compare a 4- 6 year downturn to a city that has been decline for that last 4 decades.

On the flip side some Windsor residents never had to leave because they knew for some time that be a part of the 21st century workfoce one would need a diversified skill set. It’s not enough to just show up for the required time and expect lifelong employment.

Job requirements are changing and the level of knowledge and expertise is constantly increasing and changing. Be prepared to be life long learners so one can easily be adapt as economic cycles occur or face extinction from the workforce.

Once Windsor can figure out what type of city its wants to be in this global marketplace, things will turn around. From a logistical standpoint, Windsor is in a great place. They just need to capitalize on it

#67 The 'VULTURE' on 08.27.09 at 11:40 am


Living easy, living free (living on 0% banks free money pee wee)
Season ticket on a one-way ride (to a McMansion ghetto Leaside)
Asking nothing, leave me be (I am stupid as a tree)
Taking everything in my stride (I have no shame only home pride)
Dont need reason, dont need rhyme (going to never pay my mortgage before I die)
Aint nothing I would rather do (don’t look down there is dog pooh on your shoe)
Going down, party time (I hate my wife and kids all the time)
My friends are gonna be there too (better buy fast before my next months rents due)

I’m on the HIGHWAY TO ‘Real Estate’ HELL.”

No stop signs, speed limit (my realturd has big zits)
Nobodys gonna slow me down (my realturd is such a clown)
Like a wheel, gonna spin it (welcome to your bottomless money pit)
Nobodys gonna mess me round (just skipped 10 mortgage payments and I am leaving town never to be found)
Hey satan, payed my dues (and I am such a MSM believing fool)
Playing in a rocking band (with another offer in my fat little hand)
Hey momma, look at me (I just bought a new house without any trees)
I’m on my way to the promised land (with no money down and a ghetto home worth many grand)

I’m on the HIGHWAY TO ‘Real Estate’ HELL.”

“Ain’t nothing I would rather do (then brag about how my new home is the size of Mother Hubbards shoe)
GOIN’ DOWN, PARTY TIME (I am living on the taxpayers dime – CHMC is mine)
My financially illiterate friends are gonna be there too . . . (my realturds breath smells like Taco Bell and dog poo)
Hey Satan, paid my dues (believed mainstream RE media too!). . .
I’m on the way to the promised land (McMansions here I come with bankers free money in hand)

I’m on the HIGHWAY TO ‘Real Estate’ HELL.”

Sing this little ditty to the song Highway to Hell from AC-DC.

Crank up your car stereo and drive around the neighborhood feeling like a freak on a leash for buying a 20 foot wide property that is trash and has no property, privacy, garage, windows, future and has made your Realturd rich and your house poor!

#68 smw aka If I only had hair! on 08.27.09 at 11:50 am

Black Monday accured in October 1987…

RE estate appreciated approximately 7% YOY for the next two years before the RE “economy” stalled. Considering where rates are, and the pushing up of prices in the bottom end, I can see simalar RE gains today. If you factor in one more year until we have any rise in rates, as promised by the BoC, the average price will probably follow a simalar pattern as 1988 and 1989.

However, unlike the 90’s where RE remain mostly flat until the late part of the decade, there is enormous downside risk in RE for the next decade because of affordibility being manipulated to epic proportions and never seen before levels.

The elastic band was strecthed in 2003 with historically low interest rates and again in 2006 with the 40 year mortgage. Yet once again last January to the disturbing bank rate of .25%.

A good sign of a bubble is if you had bought your house less then 5 years ago, and you wouldn’t be able to afford it today without creative financing or expanding your amatorization, your in a bubble.

Listen to Kojak if you wish, he’s a seller…

#69 lgre on 08.27.09 at 11:52 am

“Speaking of swine flu vaccines, I will let you know if there are any adverse side effects as I am sure I will be forced to take it as a med student. This fall is going to be interesting indeed.”

It sure sucks to be you, I know they coudn’t inject me with a vaccine..I remember friends taking injections for the seasonal flu, just to get sick weeks after. Infact, do a search on the 1976 swine flu may just put up a fight.

#70 Kelly McMae on 08.27.09 at 11:56 am

I’ve been tuning the media out for years, but have recently come across a succinct logical explanation for doing so in the book “Fooled by Randomness”. The guy has some decent arguments and insights into what he calls “noise”, which most journalists and analysts seem to provide.

Well worth the read.

#71 bigpictureguy on 08.27.09 at 11:59 am

I viewed some tv show a month ago and it followed Brad with his girlfriends shopping for a Condo in NYC with a budget of $1M-$1.5. I don’t know the date and time.

He didn’t pull the trigger because the owner of a large parking lot accepted his offer to purchase in Toronto. Brad had to break it to his disappointed pouting girlfriend that he needed to shift his capital spending elsewhere to build a new NYC style condo.

My point: I thought $1-1.5 million would be chump change .. play money for the King of Condos.

#72 jess on 08.27.09 at 12:13 pm

Published: August 18, 2009
A growing body of evidence suggests that doctors at some of the nation’s top medical schools have been attaching their names and lending their reputations to scientific papers that were drafted by ghostwriters working for drug companies — articles that were carefully calibrated to help the manufacturers sell more products.

Experts in medical ethics condemn this practice as a breach of the public trust. Yet many universities have been slow to recognize the extent of the problem, to adopt new ethical rules or to hold faculty members to account.(newyorktimes)

#73 jess on 08.27.09 at 12:15 pm

remember crazy eddie?

“created “a giant bubble” of a company by creating false inventory reports, as well as forged bills for money it owed and was owed. The “laundry list” of illegal moves impressed investors, driving up the price of the company’s stock, he said.”

#74 kc on 08.27.09 at 12:16 pm

Here is a nifty look at history and where the markets are sitting today. take it with a grain of salt.

The Great Depression and Today – Sobering Parallels Abound

#75 smw on 08.27.09 at 12:18 pm

#3 kc

How much savings would a twenty something have accumulated between paying of student loans and starting a new job at, lets say 15 – 25 an hour? Of course those with additonal education such as teachers and lawyers will be in a higher pay scale, but we’ll talk average, as we do the average price of homes.

Not enough to borrow without CMHC insurance and probably not enough to get a mortgage without staying at a variable rate.

Its easy to see why kids would be getting into the market, they have no skin at this stage of life and the talk is that, RE is the road to assured wealth by the media hams.

They never seen or probably heard the stories in Calgary or Toronto in the early 80’s about people walking away from their homes. Grandfather and papa have only talked about the long term rise, not the short term dips or crashes.

Garth makes very few assumptions and those he does, have history and financial facts to back them up. Housing in Ontario, just like BC, will work itself out. The mad rush to beat the HST is pure stupidity in action and a lack of understanding how markets correct themselves no matter what kind of actions taken by government to try and prevent it.

Japan from 1989 to 2006 is the primo example. Low rates couldn’t prevent the re-alignment of affordibility. A decade of stagflation would be a dream at this point, all the signs point to rapid interest rate hikes.

That extra 7% added in BC and Ontario, won’t come from the consumer, it will come out of the pocket of the seller. That in itself is more than enough reason not to run with the herd of idiots out the same exit.

#76 Peter Wiener on 08.27.09 at 12:22 pm

re # 52

Except that scheme is considered mortgage fraud in most states in the US and it is a felony. Also if an employer gets wind of it, or learns of your ” financial duress”, it can be grounds for dismissal.

Also new hires often have a FICO score and a credit check done on them now to preclude potential theft / embezzlement by prospective employees to satisfy workplace insurance policies. Not a black mark you need in a 10% unemployment environment.

#77 The 'VULTURE' on 08.27.09 at 12:25 pm

The Prince of This World” (12:31, 14:30)

Jesus said, “You are the children of your father, the Devil, and you want to follow your father’s desires. From the very beginning he was a murderer and has never been on the side of truth, because there is no truth in him. When he tells a lie, he is only doing what is natural to him, because he is a liar and the father of all lies.” (John 8: 44)

Question: How can you tell when a Realturd is lying?

Answer: His mouth is moving….

Casting everyone in a profession this way is an unfair exaggeration. I am sure you also know it to be untrue. Besides, Jesus was a salesguy. — Garth

#78 Larry on 08.27.09 at 12:36 pm

#65 CM. For those who say that interest rates need to skyrocket for the value of homes to plummet, just curious as to why you think that?
From what I saw in the U.S., they fell by over 30% without any help at all from skyrocketing interest rates.
Good question but the answer is simple, RE was actually starting to correct and sales declined from nov 2008 to march of 2009 until the boc lowered interest rates to their current levels. Add to that the bailouts provided to the banks and stimulus money from the govt the bubble got more air. We noe have a rush of people suddenly able to get financing at 3% that would never touch a house if rates were even 5%.

#79 Jane54 on 08.27.09 at 12:40 pm

I have to agree with ‘Happy As I Am’. I live in London, England and have been following this blog on and off for several months. Greater London has 8.5 million folk earning very big bucks and is the world financial centre but even here RE prices are nowhere near as high as some small towns in Canada. What is going on? What is supporting these crazy prices?
Without insult Vancouver and Toronto are not world class cites but provincial centers. I have been to Paris, Rome, Barcelona and New York, these are world class cities and the RE there is cheaper than in Canada!!!

#80 Barb .. a reader in Calgary on 08.27.09 at 12:42 pm

“properties are being bought with less care than goes into finding the right pair of Capri pants” — Garth

I certainly hope you are not minimizing the fact that it is very difficult to find the right pair of capri pants. Do not mock that intensive and important task. There’s too many people in this country walking around in bad capris.

#81 Nostradamus jr. on 08.27.09 at 12:47 pm

West Vancouver…North Shore Vancouver, (incl. North Vancouver) is North Amerca’s Cote d’Azure.

the North Shore is Canada’s best private gated communities…two bridges, a commuter seabus, three BC Ferries and one highway from the north are the only access.

…It is total B.S. what you read on this site.

Nostradamus jr.

#82 Soylent Green is People on 08.27.09 at 12:49 pm

re #13 North Van Dude on 08.26.09 at 11:31 pm

On a side note, their wouldn’t be so-called hos at all if it weren’t for the Johns and some equality in the job market.

The Venus Project – a new world order, too bad we didn’t think of this two thousand years ago

#83 kc on 08.27.09 at 1:04 pm

75 smw

How much savings would a twenty something have accumulated between paying of student loans and starting a new job at, lets say 15 – 25 an hour?

I get your drift in that they can’t do it with out the other fluff. taken your over generous rate of pay (at what jobs?) THe kids today (majority) DO NOT save a nickle, unless they are extremely motivated to do so. They feel the gravy train will last forever. My kids just roll thier eyes into the back of the sockets when I try and explain the 10-15% rule. my middle son is 20 and still lives at home. i charge 500 for R&B hoping he will bank some for the future. I am pretty sure he can’t move out if he wanted to for the fact of rent and damage deposit out lay would break him. he is on a pretty good wage at 19. an hour and been there for 2 years. he still can’t make the connection that what you don’t have in a savings account will not magicaly appear when and if you get that pink slip.

#84 Mark on 08.27.09 at 1:06 pm

#69, and the OP on Swine Flu. Interesting article:,2933,542950,00.html

#85 Michael on 08.27.09 at 1:09 pm

The flaw in the logic

Hi Garth,

I read your book “2015 After The Boom” and agree with the logic behind your statements in that book and the recent posts on this blog. Your assessment of the economy and RE market makes sense to me and seem logical in theory.

A magazine article you may find amusing is the September edition of Vancouver magazine which asks the question is now a good time to buy in Vancouver? The magazine goes on to say, if you’re looking to purchase a house as an investment hold off, if you’re looking to purchase a home now is as good of time as any. The magazine also includes examples of recent purchases at asking price or above asking price through bidding wars. Yes, bidding wars are still driving up prices for homes in Vancouver.

Getting to my point: Even though the Vancouver market is overpriced in theory and therefore, as you have stated, there “should” be a price correction… as long as people continue to buy houses in Vancouver prices will not correct, they may even increase.
In order for the prices to correct as much as you believe would there not have to be a significantly large percentage of people who no longer are interested in purchasing homes in Vancouver?

I know your thoughts on people who say “it’s different here”, but that IS the reason why prices won’t drop. There are many people who just *want* to live in Vancouver and many of those people don’t want to rent, they want to own a home instead.

And there lies the flaw in the logic – as long as people are willing to pay market prices for homes in Vancouver there will not be a significant price correction. If you’re a family interested in purchasing a home (not an investment), if you don’t purchase a house in Vancouver soon you might not be able to afford one in the future after prices go up.

Even though in theory, prices should go down, if the people who live in Vancouver don’t buy into that theory – it will prove to be wrong.



Wanting does not equal affording. Your argument fails. — Garth

#86 Barb .. a reader in Calgary on 08.27.09 at 1:24 pm

#6 Denis “Holy Crap! General Admission $189.00 for this event?!?!?!?

Or, lunch with Alan Greenspan in Calgary – just $299 ($1,000 for VIP)

#87 dontcallmeshirley on 08.27.09 at 1:25 pm

2. timing – whenever the Liberals take back the big chair

How you like them apples?

Explain (2). — Garth

The current regime has no incentive or practical way to dis-engage from driving domestic RE. Any letting off the pedal would be a mess that benefits them naught.

The only potential hope for change is with a new regime. This is not to suggest that liberals are sympathetic towards RE one way or another, just that a new path can only come from new guys.

As witnessed by the lack of examples on this blog there is no clear “catalyst” for us to look forward to.

#88 Evangeline on 08.27.09 at 1:32 pm

((I certainly hope you are not minimizing the fact that it is very difficult to find the right pair of capri pants. Do not mock that intensive and important task. There’s too many people in this country walking around in bad capris.))

Question: How can you tell when capri pants are bad?

Answer: Someone is wearing them ….

#89 Greg W., Oakville on 08.27.09 at 1:38 pm

Hi Garth, FYI, Re: medical isotop productoion info.

(2009 August 25) Here are two new short videos on the status of the NRU. In one, Hugh MacDiarmid discusses the timeline for completion of the returnto service project and in the other Dave Cox gives us a demonstration of the work that is currently being carried out. These videos are being posted on the NRUCanada website today and sent to media outlets via Canada Newswire.

#90 Barb .. a reader in Calgary on 08.27.09 at 1:39 pm

70 Kelly Mc re book ‘Fooled by Randomness

I went to check out the book, thanks, and realized who that was and recall his Black Swan Theory.

#91 Barb .. a reader in Calgary on 08.27.09 at 1:58 pm

Garth O/T but ..oh please, quick, see what you can do about an election.. now there’s even more Harpocrisy’s partisan picks for Senate:
Doug Finley, Don Plett, Carolyn Stewart-Olsen partisan, favoured cronies, all Con artists.

Harpocrisy has firmly proclaimed repeatedly, including during the election, that he would NEVER appoint senators. So he just keeps breaking his word over and over and over again.. like every con artist in their ponzi schemes.

#92 dd on 08.27.09 at 2:18 pm

#81 Nostradamus jr.

…It is total B.S. what you read on this site… Nostradamus jr.

You should know. You are the BS King.

#93 Future Expatriate on 08.27.09 at 2:21 pm

“Besides, Jesus was a salesguy. — Garth”

Salesguys by definition aim to profit off what they sell, as a profession.

Jesus? Advocate, certainly; teacher, hopefully; peddler, no way. No earthly profit whatsoever in what He was espousing, and He was the first to admit it.

Now, what the rest of the universe perverted from what He was espousing? PLENTY of profit in that enterprise. For quite awhile, anyway.

#94 Peter @ Canadian Banks on 08.27.09 at 2:21 pm

# 67

Here is another AC / DC song that doesn’t need changes :)

Downpayment Blues

Living on a shoe string
A fifty cent millionaire
Open to charity
Rock ‘n’ roller welfare
Sitting in my Cadillac
Listening to my radio
Suzy baby get on in
Tell me where she want to go
I’m living in a nightmare
She’s looking like a wet dream
I got myself a Cadillac
But I can’t afford the gasoline
I’ve got holes in my shoes
And I’m way overdue
Down payment blues

#95 dd on 08.27.09 at 2:25 pm

#22 Mike (Authentic)

“pays it forward”

Don’t forget the “Cash for Appliances” program coming next.

#96 Peter Wiener on 08.27.09 at 2:25 pm

#71 bigpictureguy

Do you remeber the last “Condo King” of Toronto in the boom ending in 1990? His name was Harry Stinson. Google him to find the extent of his high profile bankruptcy recently and the losses that his many followers have suffered.

I agree, if Lamb can’t write a stiff for 1.5million, in the development world, he is NOBODY, despite his (leased) Rolls. I don’t want to say anything more as I may be accused of ‘boasting’ by certain posters here. Put it this way, if you are as successful as he portrays himself – you don’t broadcast it and you don’t run around in a black Rolls. The guys I work with do the exact opposite, on purpose.

#97 lgre on 08.27.09 at 2:26 pm

#84 – More and more are catching on, now just imagine..if doctors and nurses are refusing it, another money maker for big pharma while the patient is a guinea pig.

#98 North Van Dude on 08.27.09 at 2:27 pm

@81 I meant no disrespect to women- I meant to diss REs.

The Venus Project is a great idea, but how many people have too much skin in the current game to give it up?

#99 Peter Wiener on 08.27.09 at 2:28 pm

#81 Nosti

Then why do you visit so often?

#100 Peter Wiener on 08.27.09 at 2:33 pm

#77 The Vulture

Shame on you for that blanket statement re Realturds.
They are only 99.9 % that way. LOL
I’m with you Vultch!

#101 pez on 08.27.09 at 2:40 pm

There is a superb Keynes quote: “the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” (Vancouverites are replacing “solvent” with “patient”)

Garth, I’m keeping the faith and I want to see blood running down the streets when bond yields move up and people can’t believe the new rate, and monthly jack they need to come up with to keep their lovely/crappy homes.

#102 Internal Exile on 08.27.09 at 2:42 pm

BC’s economic “boom” (and subsequent real estate bubble) was built on two things: a resource boom and laundering drug money through real estate. Drug money in BC is the elephant in the room no one wants to talk about. The Hells Angels pioneered it as a great way to clean their cash, and since there is no other industry in BC besides real estate flipping (the 200 employees of Electronic Arts they troop out for photo ops every election aside) the government will NEVER take it on.

The new wrinkle is the way the Angels have managed to become almost totally legit out here:

McLellan grew up in Vancouver’s Point Grey and became a wealthy businessman, with many real estate interests plus his West End supermarket, added Shinkaruk. He joined the Hells Angels about 12 years ago.

“He got into the Hells Angels late in life. He was a millionaire prior to joining the Angels.”

About McLellan’s late entry into the motorcycle gang, Shinkaruk said: “People have their different reasons for becoming Hells Angels and there have been a few people who were successful and joined up later in life.

“It’s not common but it has happened a few times.”

Shinkaruk said that McLellan lived in Maple Ridge where he had many real estate holdings.
(Vancouver Sun)
Hats off to the Angels for their hard work. Shame on our province for taking their blood money.

#103 Peter Wiener on 08.27.09 at 2:43 pm

# 79 Jane 54

Thanks for the real world (i.e. you CAN see the forest AND the trees) take on Canadian real estate prices.

You make my case completely (see # 55 of this thread) – thanks for the objective viewpoint. People in Canada are way too parochial and don’t understand the relative importance of Canada and her economy.

Btw, consider your comments also in the context of land availability and space contstraints that really mature (and crowded) RE markets like yours in the UK has to contend with, contrasted to the world’s biggest country by contiguous land mass and a population of 33 million (Canada). Now the prices of Canadian RE seem positively absurd, don’t they?

#104 The 'VULTURE' on 08.27.09 at 2:48 pm


You are right and you are my teacher (the best economics teacher I have ever had…seriously) and I was tongue in cheek ‘vulture’ style just for humours sake.

I would buy a home from Jesus but he won’t answer my calls.

Some guy named Lucifer has some really hot property for sale at fire sale prices but I feel that he lies to me all the time if you know what I mean. He has a huge ego as well and a really bad temper to boot!

I am confused though…the last real estate agent I worked with wanted to sell me some capri pants for some reason…something to do with no one having 2 million bucks to buy a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, no garage, no property, no driveway in Toronto.

Can guys were capri pants?

#105 Darryl on 08.27.09 at 3:03 pm

Munch #19

“In South Africa, yesterday the Army stormed the Union Buildings (your equivalent of the White House)”

Munch . This is Canada . Say Caaanaaadaaa. We do not have a white house. If you are to post that you know what will hppen to Caaanaaadaaa. At least study a bit on our country.

#106 Gregor Samsa on 08.27.09 at 3:05 pm

Chart Time! Everything you wanted to know about housing in one chart:

Does a case-shiller chart exist for Canada?

#107 pbrasseur on 08.27.09 at 3:05 pm

CM (#65)

“For those who say that interest rates need to skyrocket for the value of homes to plummet, just curious as to why you think that?

From what I saw in the U.S., they fell by over 30% without any help at all from skyrocketing interest rates.”

Good point. Although rising rates would surely send this market into a tailspin we probably won’t have to wait that long before it starts diving. Bubbles are about information, more specifically distorted and often flat false information that gets shared by a growing number of people, for example information that says RE always goes up, that you can’t lose. And of course it feeds on itself, rising prices represent information that something has value, that it’s a good investment. The more people participate the more people you have that claim the merits of the thing (if only to justify their own behaviour). That’s how bubble get formed. Until they burst and they always do.

Bubbles burst when the pattern of information changes. So far the information pattern about RE is pretty much intact in Canada. I think for it to change you would need to see a shift in the balance between supply in demand. That could happen if because of the recession there are less new buyers (following the initial burst triggered by low rates). For example in Montreal although prices are still rising sales are down by 20% this month. If this continues it will start pressuring prices downward. Once prices start declining the psychology may change, some will start doubting RE rosy scenario, some may want to rush to sell before more decline occurs while others will hesitate to buy. Hard to say what will happen exactly but this bubble will pop just like all the other.

#108 Industrial Guy on 08.27.09 at 3:08 pm

“The truth is, there’s no fix for Windsor next year. Once factories close, they take eternities to reopen.”

No kidding Garth! This “recession” wasn’t like the one in the early 1990s. During that recession. Factories were reduced in size, people were laid off and volumes dropped. Yes, it sometime meant that the back part of the building which was basically a storage area for unused machines was unheated and dark. The equipment would be used again once the recession was over.

2008 – 2009 is a whole new ball game. I just bought two machines valued at $90,000.00 new for $2,500 each. Both are in almost new condition. The rest of the machines at this auction were bought by machinery dealers from the USA and some I know who sell overseas. Basically, they are heading out of Canada to Mexico India and China …maybe South America.

There are “barriers to entry” when starting a new manufacturing business. Most new companies buy used machines to save money and stretch out the investment capital.

If we sell all the used machinery overseas, then two things happen. One, the barriers to entry for domestic suppliers become much higher and two, we have just made our overseas competition a lot more efficient with modern equipment. We really need export control on these machines if we ever want to have a hope of a real recovery.

I doubt our Governments could just remove all the taxes (direct and indirect) on new machinery and give our industries a fighting chance. Plant modernization in Canada has always lagged behind the USA.

We always seem to have great ideas for Social Programs, but we really suck at supporting our own industries. A country without significant investment in research and development is doomed to become …… Canada. Let’s hope we find oil in Mississagua and Welland.

#109 Mike B formerly just Mike on 08.27.09 at 3:09 pm

Peter Weiner 55 HERE HERE… so right indeed. in everything you write… Much better cities than Toronto is and certainly Canadian central bank AKA the drone of the US FED and their buds at Goldmann Sachs … Too much crap out there to demand the kind of coin houses do in Toronto. Consider the closing costs on a 600K home is almost 17000 bucks in land transfer tax. Anyone know of any other city worldwide that pockets that kind of coin. And then the mayor has the nerve to declare it difficult to balance the books. Solution… fire him and put in a real mayor with the ability to CUT costs on the labor side not service side. But Torontonians are too spineless to do that.

#110 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.27.09 at 3:11 pm

#28 David Bakody on 08.27.09 at 7:08 am — “Could they be seeking higher safer ground?”

A week before the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004, all the animals fled to higher ground, as they could sense something was going to happen. The locals saw that “the sea had gone to sleep”, and followed suit a couple of days later.

Those who were enjoying themselves, who couldn’t see beyond their noses were wiped out.
#29 JO on 08.27.09 at 7:10 am — “I try to avoid giving my opinion anymore as I get ridiculed and laughed at . . .”

Same here. Briefly scan comments only, as it’s not worth the effort anymore.

#111 wellwell on 08.27.09 at 3:15 pm

Two days ago I looked at Windsor’s MLS for the first time in a few months, and housing prices there continue to crater. Even modestly priced homes (valued at less than $175,000) simply do not sell unless tens of thousands of dollars are shaved off the asking price. Windsor is trapped in a time warp – these nominal prices haven’t been seen elsewhere in southern Ontario for at least twenty years. All of this sounds attractive to potential buyers, so long as you never have to sell into this cataclysmic market.

#112 Kate on 08.27.09 at 3:25 pm

So, everything is not as good as the media is saying?

#113 Argentum Aurum on 08.27.09 at 3:42 pm

An interesting article on BoC Governor Mark Carney.

#114 Peter on 08.27.09 at 3:50 pm

Perhaps the only money making in a rent scheme is ENORMOUS ASSET INFLATION of these OVERVALUED CONDOS…Example : Bought at 200,000 and rent out for $ 1500.00 per month in 2006 would now be value at $ 300,000 (if you sell right now) and make close to $ 100 – $ 150 per month after expenses and mortgages on a rent…Also, Betting that the leasee paying you on time and not a single day late…

#115 jess on 08.27.09 at 3:55 pm

profit cutters?

…”new rules to curb excessive speculation in the market by implementing limits on the number of positions a trader can hold at any one time”

this would affect leveraged etf’s ?

#116 Denis on 08.27.09 at 4:29 pm

Be prepared for the most ultimate of ultimate final dashes!!!

Home sales predicted to boom in 2009!

CREA revises housing outlook

The realtor group (i like how they write that now) revised its previous forecast that sales would fall 14.7%. It now says resale market activity will total 432,600 units, a decline of only 0.4% compared with 2008.

#117 Bill on 08.27.09 at 4:30 pm

#44 Calgary_rip_off

Can you play “Black Star” by Yngwie Malmsteen?

How about “Far Beyond the Sun”?

My favorite Yngwie album is “Trilogy”

#118 Mike B formerly just Mike on 08.27.09 at 4:36 pm

An economist view of the Canadian Real Estate

#119 Denis on 08.27.09 at 4:39 pm

#105 Gregor Samsa on 08.27.09 at 3:05 pm

Chart Time! Everything you wanted to know about housing in one chart:

Does a case-shiller chart exist for Canada?
As close as it gets: unless you chart the numbers on the last page of a Monthly TREB MarketWatch report.

#120 OttawaMike on 08.27.09 at 4:46 pm

A couple of days ago somebody here commented on the unscientific Mercedes to house price ratio. To recap, a top model Mercedes should be about the same price as an average family dwelling in a major centre. These days we’re not even close.
There is a similiar formula for swimming pools, it says an average inground pool costs the same as an average family sedan(before all the interlock and other extras). A 40 yr. veteran pool builder told me about this and it still holds true today. Inground pools go for around 30k$ these days.

It all ties into the employment picture: If people cannot afford housing without earning, high uncompetitive wages then a nation cannot attract the jobs needed to keep the real estate and business cycle(bubble?) going.

Another index that shows this balance is the Economist Magazine’s Big Mac index. It shows purchasing power parity of different currencies and is surprisingly accurate.

#121 Dan in Victoria on 08.27.09 at 4:47 pm

You guys figure this out,cause I can’t.I was laying some pipe in a ditch this morning with an excavator operator,both our cell phones are ringing off the hook,he says to me I can’t take on another job till December.I says yeah pretty much in the same boat.Plumber buddy this morning says to me WTH is going on?I have so much work I can’t do it all.I went to look at a job yesterday in Oak Bay(for a friend)and ran into a fellow i’ve known forever he does large condo and townhouse projects,he says its gone crazy we have 2 units left out of all our buildings and nothing geared up to start we thought the jig was up,so we didn’t plan to start anything.Another fellow had a bunch of condos he was getting ground on by buyers,matter of three weeks he said i have four left.All of us have over 30 years in the business and are shaking our heads in amazement.That new batch of greater fools that we ordered must have arrived.

#122 OttawaMike on 08.27.09 at 4:57 pm

#108 Industrial Guy on 08.27.09 at 3:08 pm
2008 – 2009 is a whole new ball game. I just bought two machines valued at $90,000.00 new for $2,500 each. Both are in almost new ..snip

Checkout eBay or the auctions for machine tools, including CNC stuff?
It’s selling for pennies on the pound if at all. I see 2 reasons for this:
1) as you eloquently described, exporting our factories lock, stock and wholesale.
2) Nobody can use the equipment, we’ve trained the next generation that pushing paper is the way to wealth, no need to work in a dirty factory.

#123 Rob in NVan on 08.27.09 at 4:58 pm

#105 – Does a case-shiller chart exist for Canada?

Apparently the closest thing Canada has is the following:

Under “communiqués” find the monthly reports and expand, here’s part of the latest:
“Canadian home prices in June were down 6.2% from a year earlier, according to the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™. It was the seventh consecutive 12-month decline. The index is now down 6.8% from its peak of August 2008. However, it rose in both May and June after eight straight monthly declines. The June monthly rise was 1.5%. The turnaround is consistent with an improvement in market conditions in recent months for the country as a whole – more homes have been sold and fewer have been coming on the market”

#124 Happy Renter in North Van on 08.27.09 at 5:16 pm

Brad Lamb will have to rent out a second cavernous concert hall for his ego…

“The 100” should really be titled “The 2 – Right Place, Right Time”

#125 Ottawa on 08.27.09 at 5:46 pm

So if business believes that real estate has rebounded:

why are house construction companies not looking to build? The industry forecasts I have seen still call for a drop from the 220k range to around 140k.

If prices are only going up, why are the industry insiders planning to sit on their hands? They only make money building.

#126 Nostradamus jr. on 08.27.09 at 5:48 pm

Dear Vancouver Homeowners and Renters,

…Expensive properties around Europe (and Asia)including, Zurich, Paris, London…are not based on family income.

…Vancouver is completely different to Toronto.

900,000 citizens as opposed to >3 million.

Financial, trade and leisure emerging capital as opposed to a dying or already dead manufacturing/culture centre.

Garth will never admit that Bazzilions of $$$ are buried in BC by its white retired citizens.

Garth will never admit West Vancouver(&North Vancouver) is North America’s Cote d’Azure…Canada’s most elite privately gated community, accessible by only two bridges, a seabus, three BC Ferries and one highway from it’s north…Whistler.

Garth will never admit Ontario with a preponderance of millions of citizens who have no money or jobs.

Sadly, I see the Ontario Provincial Govt. building barracks in and around Windsor to accomodate these masses of unemployed.

On the bright side, I see Garth becoming Ontario’s Premier…watching Ontario w/ the rest of Eastern Canada see Manitoba and west…secede from the Dominion.

May he bring success while leading Lower and Upper Canada.

…Is Garth bilingual….if not, better start mit dem French lessons.

Nostradamus jr.

#127 Jake on 08.27.09 at 5:50 pm

#109 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad

Some of us here actually really appreciate your comments and links. When I have a busy day I only read Garth’s article and then scan for your posts. Now is not the time to stop providing us with the alternative view on things. Thanks in advance.

#128 bigpictureguy on 08.27.09 at 6:00 pm

“#96 Peter Wiener on 08.27.09 at 2:25 pm
#71 bigpictureguy Do you remeber the last “Condo King” of Toronto in the boom ending in 1990? His name was Harry Stinson. ”

You mean the infamous Stinson who can’t finish a condo development project without huge budget over runs ? Remember the Candy Factory Lofts. Burned his bridge and friendship with Mr. Mirvish on 1 King St? You figure after 3-4 projects he would learn to manage a project.

I recall checking out Stinson’s Condo project near Dundas/Roncesvalles . I walk in and he is dressed in old crappy sweat pants looking like malnourished prisoner of war.

Is he still around?

#129 bigpictureguy on 08.27.09 at 6:08 pm

Peter Weiner. I will give Stinson credit for a being a visionary and a risk taker. He just lacked the all important strong execution and managing costs.

#130 Peter Wiener on 08.27.09 at 6:49 pm

# 124

Right on – I see the guy out in dwtn Toronto a bit, I think you got it right about the second hall.

#131 Peter Wiener on 08.27.09 at 6:51 pm

# 121 Dan in Victoria

Can you say “easy money policy”, cause that’s what’s causing it.

#132 john m on 08.27.09 at 6:57 pm

#42 Tim on 08.27.09 at 9:06 am

Living in Alberta, where I’ve had too friends, both of whom make in the 30 000 to 40 000 range, approved to be houses worth 440 000 and 650 000 respectively.

Isn’t that insane? And, when I urged caution, the one who bought the 440 000 dollar mobile home (yes, they’re everywhere in the West) reasoned that it would be worth over 2 000 000 bucks in 5 years.<<<<<<<<<<<you gotta be kidding?……..440,000 for a mobile home? all i can say is there is not a greater fool then that ……….but just wait im sure there is more………every man's home is his castle and there better be a moat around that baby with a playboy bunny cutting the grass :-)

#133 Boombust on 08.27.09 at 7:02 pm

“There are many people who just *want* to live in Vancouver and many of those people don’t want to rent, they want to own a home instead.”

I am sure we will see a very “different” Vancouver after the Olympics have come and gone.

Prices will be driven down when the hangover begins.

In the meantime, “The Faint Hope clause” is alive and well.

#134 Alberta Renter on 08.27.09 at 7:21 pm

I just finished reading “After the Crash”. Much better than I imagined and I am grateful for Garth’s knowledge on keen insight.

I am left with some gaps however, and I hope some of you can shed some light.

1. Why does Canada real estate lag the US by two years as suggested numerous times in the book?

2. It feels like we’re at bottom now, and there is only up as a direction to go. It feels like most of the doom and gloom had been aired (sub prime loans and rotten banks, liquidity lending, massive layoffs, stock market crash and real estate correction, failed automotive industry). What’s left that is this big on the plate? I’d say the big ones are over.

3. Hasn’t anyone figured out that the solution to Canada’s problem is to open the door to immigration? This would provide the government the working tax base it needs to get through the demographic crunch and get the conveyor belt of first home buyers back up and running.

#135 Live Within Your Means on 08.27.09 at 7:31 pm

I accidentally posted the below responses to the end of Garth’s blog yesterday so have copied them here today.

I was doing a search on Garth’s site today and came across your post below which I had not read.

#65 Peter Wiener on 08.26.09 at 5:58 pm

# 64 Live Within Your Means

“Many people on this blog consider a house as an investment.”

“Sorry mate, have to disagree.

You might have paid a reasonable multiple of your income when you purchased your house (bet it wasn’t 7 times like it is today) and the world wasn’t going thru the economic collapse it is now, with structural unemployment and the debt loads that exist today.”

No it was more likely 3X one of our salaries when we purchased it fore $116.00 in ‘91 with 25% down. My sis & I had previously owned a condo townhouse. & during that time we got hit with a 19% mtg. My husband lived with us for a yr. before we bought out my sister. Two years later my husband and I sold it. When my DH moved here, he had to take a 6 mo. English As a Second Language and his training in France and work experience in Quebec was not recognized. He then ended up working as a labourer for 6 months He finally got hired on as a hydraulics tech, not earning a good wage and no security. When I moved here (in ’76) I only applied to the provincial govt. because wages were so low here and benefits non-existent. Do you fault me for choosing to work for the best employer I could find. I’m sure you would have done the same.

We saved, ate lots of KD and bought what we could afford, based on one of us losing a job. We sold my Honda and kept his Pony as mine was worth more.

“Ergo, one has to view and consider the financial commitment to a home with a far more gimlet eye so as not to potentially ruin one’s finances going forward.
You didn’t have those concerns when you bought and the nominal values were much lower and you didn’t have to commit financial suicide to put a roof over your heads. Some people today do, so forgive them for being a little money minded!”

Check my comment above. My husband remodeled our kitchen/dining areas, etc. in our last place. We dumpster dived at Ikea for useable materials. Please don’t presume you know anything about our lives. We looked at lots of homes in the area, much more expensive than our home, but did not want to be a slave to a mtg. Ours is assessed the lowest on the street. My DH has made many renovations in our home inside and out. We didn’t have to get permits because of its structure. Its not our fault that people choose to go into massive debt to buy a home.

“I feel sad for them.”

I do. So many choose to get in over their heads, wanting granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, etc. I know several young couples who purchased way beyond their means, 0-5% down, and no real job security. Time will tell.

“Nice tone of condescension there!”

Its anything but Peter.

“I feel sad too because the powers that be have, through overregulation of deveolpment, huge development charges, restrictive zoning, etc. and through sanctioning ridiculous lending standards, lessened downpayments and higher lending ratios than in your puchase days have driven costs and prices through the roof.”

I happen to totally agree with you.

“Are you really sad that these actions have inflated the price of your house way beyond anything reasonable? Didn’t think so!”

As I said Peter, I live in NS. We bought in ‘91 for $116K. Our assessment is $186k tho we’re pretty sure its worth much more.

“Bottom line, you had more economic certainty, paid less for your home as a function of your income, used less leverage (bigger downstroke) and had less taxes to pay and fewer calls on your cash flow than most prospective buyers on this blog face today. And a far more certain economic outlook and possibly job security.”

I lived during n the ‘Savage Day’s where our salaries were cut 3%, we had to take days off without pay, etc. I never recouped those cuts for my pension. And, when the prov. & the feds came to an agreement so that I could buy back 3 years of service (60/70’s) with the Feds in Ottawa, I chose to do so even tho it cost us lots of $$. Should I have not taken advantage of that as well.

“How do they find the time in places like Vancouver to “contribute to their community” when two wage earners are busting their butts to cover an eggregious mortgage payment which now goes on almost twice as long as the mortgage you paid I’m guessing.”

Its their choice to live in BC. I went there on vacation in ‘75, staying with 3 girlfriends in Vcr and the Okanogan and saw the costs of RE and life. For various reasons, including the cost of living, I chose not to move there.

“As the saying goes …walk a mile in someone else’s moccassins before you judge them…”

I have walked in other shoes and know what it’s like.

“Smart guys those Native Indians! They really knew about community and they sure as hell didn’t have a two car garage!”

rant off

#69 markintheprairies on 08.26.09 at 7:06 pm
To Live within your means:

“I am very glad for you; an indexed pension, a 2nd pension not indexed, a large inheritance assured. And virtue, what a wonderful life.

And, of course, nobody’s income is being transferred to you via the indexed pension; that would have spoiled its taste.”

I never said there would be a large inheritance – just the sale of my husband’s parents home in France – split 3 ways. Like Peter above, you presume too much. Sounds like both of you are envious and like to put down boomers, many of whom ‘lived within their means’. I & my DH did without growing up. I worked my ass off since a young teenager, and tried to ensure that I would not have to do without in my senior years. Its not my fault that the younger generation is struggling. I’m very upset & worry about the lack of opportunities for our youth today and about the unemployment situation. My sis (short 12 hours for EI, has never claimed during 30+ yrs) will now have to sell their home.

I’m fiscally conservative but socially left. Its you who’ve misinterpreted what I’ve said.

#96 Live Within Your Means on 08.27.09 at 6:11 pm
Oh another thing Peter Weiner – My DH took a 45 week course in Automated Manufacturing Technology (robotics and CNC mfg. at NSIT) after working as a labourer when he moved to NS. IMP needed people with those qualifications, but in the end they only wanted people younger than he that they could mold to their culture. He was too old, tho he was one of the top of his class.

Two years after we bought our current home he was laid off from his job. The co. went under. I convinced him to make a change in his career. I taught him DOS and about PCs when he took the AMT course and he really took to PC’s. He then took another 50 week course at the Information Technology Institute and graduated in ‘95. We paid $10K for his course but he did receive EI during the time. He found out later that the majority in his class got their couse paid ny EI. He’s now an IT Supervisor tho pay is far lower than in upper Cda. We were glad that we bought a home based on one salary. And, BTW, we took a mtg. whereby we could double up mo. payments (which we did while both working), and put 10% down annually on the original mtg. And, when our bank (TD) sent us a notice several years ago to say they’d start charging us for cheques/debits, my DH went to the Bank Manager and threatened we’d move our business. The BM relented & signed his business card that we’d never pay any fees. He also gave many of his cards to my DH to give to his friends, who were also threatening to move their business. I had been a client for at least 25 years with their predecessors. We learned before that that one can negotiate. We’ve never paid any bank fees, tho they’ve made lots of money off us.


Been checking out sites re Real Return Bonds and will study RRB’s for Canadian Dummies this weekend. So far, it sounds like something we’d be interested in. Thanks Garth for the H/T.

#136 eddy on 08.27.09 at 7:32 pm

I hate David Miller, his socialist City Hall, where civic employees can work in harmony with their relatives. But I agree with the above quote:

“If you bet against Toronto, you will lose.”

although i would only buy freehold myself

#137 Elle on 08.27.09 at 7:34 pm

Thanks, Poster, for a real eye-opener.(googletentcities)

Tent Cities – California…Nevada………WOW!!!

Who’da thunk. “Third world” conditions in these tent settlements in the great United States of America!

A few months previously these people lived in very respectable (mortgaged )homes with heads held high as they went off to work,… singing,…”I owe I owe, so off to work I go!”… Now, jobs are gone and so is the house, the pride and the hope.

Hopefully, as we wade through all the opinions on this site, and the well meaning advice and listen to the
caution of those whose forsight is commendable, we will wisely avoid having “Garth’s” prophetic phrase apply to us …………..this will not end well.

#138 Keith in Calgary on 08.27.09 at 7:36 pm

#96 Peter Weiner……

Brad Lamb reminds me of an AMWAY multi-level marketing ringleader. You know……the guy who wears the fake Rolex and drives the 1982 Cadillac to the group meetings to rally the troops.

#139 Denis on 08.27.09 at 7:39 pm

Harper says tax hikes not needed to balance budget

Ok … How’s this going to work? Anyone know?

#140 seanmhair on 08.27.09 at 7:43 pm

#30 View from the South

Hello fellow Windsorite Glad to see that you’re one of the few less enchanted with King Eddie. All the best with everything @ SCC this year. I was reading about the increase in enrolment. Good for SCC/CAW…tough for young people who need to get in.


#141 eddy on 08.27.09 at 7:58 pm

Condos and co ops make sense in NYC. but in TO, with thousands of SFD houses, it’s too easy for them to build more and more of them. especially with Miller in the pocket of the developers. also, too many rules and restrictions, and too easy to pad or overcharge for maintenance. time shares are the worse for that, I’ve watched cleaning staff in time shares in FL drive up in hummer and lexus cars. and these are time shares which have a Negative Value! (yes, less than zero) because the maintenance is so inflated (6-800 US per year for ONE WEEK, no one will buy it and take on the maintenance obligation because it’s cheaper to rent for a week

this is unrelated, but shows that local councils all over the world are infested with similar small minded people, who’s goal is to diminish the rights of property owners and their right to quite enjoyment

#142 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 08.27.09 at 8:30 pm

#127 Jake on 08.27.09 at 5:50 pm — Noted and thanx! I’m neither a RE agent nor businessman, so I’m not going to focus on stuff I know very little about. Instead . . .
From Garth’s Aug. 24 “Behind the bank” thread, posters 16, 44, 47 and 71 (and others) you may like to see this — a new 3:13 video on “The Fall Of The Republic”. —
Israel, dominatrix of the WH, now has found itself in a conundrum. Will the choice be oil or water?

If both, that leaves the middle wide open for someone like China to nip in quickly, destroy Dimona and the US then WW3 will finish soon after. Russia’s and China’s leaders do not mince words — they have made it perfectly clear that an attack on Iran is the prelude to WW3.

First, the new oil in Iran. All comments from —
“The invasion of Iran starts tomorrow. We can no longer tolerate the presence of, the presence of, … what the @#%^ is it we object to over there? Right; The power station. We can no longer tolerate the presence of a power station in Iran. Wait a second, that doesn’t sound right. Why would we object to a power station? Nukes? We did that in Iraq and fell flat on our faces!! Screw it; everyone knows we are lying anyway; The invasion of Iran starts tomorrow. They have oil. We want to steal it.” — Official White Horse Souse”

Second, the water in Lebanon. —
“This is one of the reasons Israel is itching for any excuse to invade Lebanon again, and this time they will go all the way to the Litani River to capture the water for itself.”

Finally, Obama’s ‘peace plan’. “The Israeli-dictated *peace* plan doesn’t mention borders, of course.”
I’ve mentioned this before, but not in as much detail. —
“You know very well, and the stupid Americans know equally well, that we control their government, irrespective of who sits in the White House. You see, I know it and you know it that no American president can be in a position to challenge us even if we do the unthinkable. What can they (Americans) do to us? We control congress, we control the media, we control show biz, and we control everything in America. In America you can criticize God, but you can’t criticize Israel…”
From John Thompson’s column on yesterday:

“If you’re a young professional, where you should live and work in Canada is revealed by Next Generation consulting. The top Canadian cities were the following:

1. Victoria; 2. Ottawa; 3. Vancouver; 4. Kingston; 5. Halifax; 6. Toronto; 7. Calgary; 8. Saskatoon; 9. London; 10. Edmonton.

The closest city to us was Abbotsford in at number 25.

Well, the housing is pretty cheap in these places!
Flaherty and Harper talked the Cdn. loonie ‘up’ — “A strong dollar is a good dollar!” — while the manufacturing system was decimated.

Now China is trying to do the opposite. Two links. —

#143 Rick on 08.27.09 at 8:59 pm

Hi Garth,

I’ve been enjoying your blog for a long time now and I generally agree with your points. I’ve been a renter for the last 14 years and about 7 years ago my salary got to a point where I thought I might be able to afford a house of my own. In fact I almost bought a fixer upper in Calgary for 160k (7 years ago) but I did the math a decided against it. I came to the conclusion that I would not even come close to being able to afford it. (I don’t do fixing up type stuff very well)

Since then I’ve moved to Vancouver. My Salary has double since then but knowing from my last experience again I know there is no way. Instead my wife and I payed ourselves a really nice wedding and have just re-signed a new lease on our appartment at $200 less than the previous year. Wow!!!! From a corporate entity at that!!!!

We are saving our pennies. In the worse case senario we will buy a house cash in many years to come. One such purchase could be a 3 bedroom bungalow (with 2 bath) on 27 acre lot that I saw in N.B. (our honey moon). Only 49k negotiable. (at that price many years could be a lot closer than I currently think)

The point… Do the math and use some of that common sense and the decision should clear.



#144 HouseBuster on 08.27.09 at 9:00 pm

Does this Sheep dude think he’s Alec Baldwin or something?

#145 dd on 08.27.09 at 9:05 pm

#126 Nostradamus jr

I see BC is a little short on change. Budget not as expected hey.

#146 sunburned canuck on 08.27.09 at 9:10 pm

This Lamb guy.
The look. The arrogance. The success of it all.
Not for me, thanks.

#147 john m on 08.27.09 at 9:34 pm

All i can say is i have been following your blog for a long time predicted the first crash in our economy long before it happened you voiced your opinion as an MP and no one listened….things could have been a whole lot better if they had…. we need you running our country! Im beginning to wonder if Canada has more “greater fools” than anywhere else in the universe? We have had the opportunity to see what happened to others and so many are following blindly in their footsteps……..things really aren’t that different here considering the world population is roughly 61/2 billion and we represent 32 million and they are all in trouble——we are very “small potatoes” in the big picture. No one else seen it coming and jeopardized their career and stood up for the people… did Garth–you stand above the crowd!!

#148 Barb .. a reader in Calgary on 08.27.09 at 9:38 pm

28 David Bakody..Could they be seeking higher safer ground?

David, this week Stephen’s Harper’s fundraising office has been on the phones saying they are “fundraising for the election next month that the Liberals are calling because the Liberals want to stop the economic recovery plan.”

LOL!!!! The Conservatives still can’t accept responsibility for ANYTHING they cause. Oh, and according to them, there is definitely an election next month that will give him “a majority so that we won’t have to have another election for 4 to 6 years.”

#149 palebird on 08.27.09 at 9:58 pm


Please you are a YVR lover at the extreme, wonderful…lotusland…I have many friends who are the same…blah blah blah…you have your head up your a## when it comes to the livability of the west coast…it is a place for people who are dead…it may be great for you..wonderful..but I don’t live on great views and northern west coast weather…yeah it can be fantastic and it can also suck..but the deadness of the general population is undisputable…it is like zombie city..even at the best of times..any sports fans who dare boo their home team at any time are despicable, and that is the story of YVR…

#150 Not Garth on 08.27.09 at 9:59 pm

Garth a learned fellow told me there is NO WAY VANCOUVER PRICES WILL FALL 30%….what do you say to that, huh?

Tell him to invest in — Garth

#151 kc on 08.27.09 at 10:28 pm

Tell him to invest in — Garth

LOL that was funny!!! While there look up Ken Lay and see where false balance sheets will get you.

#152 Peter Wiener on 08.27.09 at 11:28 pm

# 102 Internal Exile

I think you identify a very important market factor in Vancouver and B.C. in general. And I agree that it is what no one wants to mention, including the government, whom I am beginning to believe is at least tacitly involved in this situation. There is simply too much untraceable money at stake to think that the “thin blue line” is not being compromised somewhere.

This does not require one to believe in “conspiracy theories”, just human nature – in this case greed.

When this happened as blatantly in Miami, the IRS and the DEA targeted real estate and other assets as proceeds of crime (RICO laws). You have to wonder why this doesn’t happen in BC with their ‘tax lust’.

#153 CTM on 08.27.09 at 11:28 pm

As per:


#154 Peter Wiener on 08.27.09 at 11:43 pm

# 134

Did you go back and see my response to you?

Perhaps you’d like to post that here as well so as to give me a fair hearing. I would but I am unsure as how to copy it to this thread. Please do it for me, it is post #98 under the Dashcam Frenzy thread.

#155 Joshua on 08.28.09 at 12:03 am

Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad you got great blogs with amazing links…avoid the haters. You got a lot more supporters.

#156 Vancouver_bear on 08.28.09 at 2:10 am

#126 Nostradamus jr. on 08.27.09 at 5:48 pm

I am coming to your “gated” community to kick your a$$ and guess what…. nobody can stop me….since there are NO GATED communities in canada. Keep dreaming about it or move to Obamaramaland, they have plenty of them, one is called Guantanamo bay :).

How is your grow-op doing? Still making lotsa moola?

Oh no….. you were busted:

#157 Calgary_rip_off on 08.28.09 at 9:22 am


Yes Black Star is easy. All Yngwie’s stuff is difficult due to timing paradoxes. Fast, but not fast. He’s in time but he isnt. The theory is easy. Timing not.

#158 jess on 08.28.09 at 12:50 pm
“The US world of business regulation is run by lawyers, and lawyers it is said, like rules. They are clear, and they encourage innovation, because anything not strictly forbidden by a rule is deemed to be okay. In the UK, and in many other jurisdictions around the world, the preference is for principles. American business has traditionally turned its nose up at this approach, but attitudes are now changing.

US financial watchdogs are starting to take the view that their rules-based approach is not going to work for much longer, if indeed it works now. In recent years, the sheer volume of corporate rules and regulations created in the US has grown enormously. Partly that is a response to financial scandals such as Enron, WorldCom and the rest. Partly it’s an effort to keep up with innovations in the financial markets, where banks and other institutions continually churn out new products that don’t look like anything else in the regulatory rulebook.

Principles-based approach
The most prominent regulator to come out in favour of principles rather than rules, is Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke. He used a recent speech to argue in favour of developing a UK-style, principles-based approach to US financial market regulation, rather than creating new rules for each new financial instrument or institution.”

#159 Vancouver_bear on 08.28.09 at 1:45 pm

#126 Nostradamus jr. on 08.27.09 at 5:48 pm

Is this the face of your elitiest city?
I wonder what other illegal activity your “elite” with perversions is upto?

Former exec sentenced for possessing child porn

#160 Manitoban on 08.29.09 at 10:10 am

Garth, this is off topic and need not be posted. It may be wise for you to simply delete it and I certainly will not be offended. The e mail partially quoted is also an invitation to my immediate family to attend a general welcoming reunion for a 61 yr old very distant cousin and his 58 yr old wife from “Argenton sur mere” in France. (my great grand father and his great grand mother were siblings) My mother(1st Canadian born of this family in the year 1900) first visited France in 1912 and brought back pictures of his great grand father, she next returned to France in 1960 and a few more times before her passing in 1973.In the early 50’s one of my sisters had spent a couple of years in France and had befriended this cousin’s mother. 2 of my brothers and their wives also visited with his parents and his family of 4 children both in the 80’s and 90’s.
Since your blog SI of Aug. 21 their has been a remarkable increase in civility and including your blog “The inflated of Aug.26” each appears to me as becoming better & better reads with an increased comment participation I think. I know that you would be even more aware of it than I can possibly be. In any case I wish to thank you and the readers for these improvements in quality which also help improve my own quality of life. This week end, I am sending an
e mail which in part says the following, and similar missives will be forwarded to the families of 47 of 83 living 1st cousins on my father’s side (average age 76 ranging in ages 95-61, average age of 36 deceased was 68, average age of the 13 parents of the 83 was 76 at time of death.)
To my brothers, sisters, children, nephews, nieces, grand children, great nieces and great nephews.

I am told, and accept with a positive attitude which I intend to maintain as long as I can, that my cancer cannot be cured. All I can tell you at the moment is  that I feel well, eat well, and sleep between 7-8 uninterrupted hours each night with the help of 8 endocet pain killers daily and even more important my continued ability to keep up with my hobby of family historian of facts only. No secrets are being recorded here, rumors remain unwelcome. I’m still accepting pictures to make totally new family pictorial trees as well as adding to existing trees due to new children or marriages or just changes to record a death in both my family records and the Pictorial trees. Make my days easier to take, with piling up of info, pictures and any questions you may wish to ask. Some of you may have loosed information and pictures that I previously sent to you due to computer crashes or any other reason. Ask away, all of it is at my finger tips and can be supplied to you in seconds, minutes at most as long as I’m sitting at my computer. Keep me there, PLEASE.
With all my love, yours Jean-Louis.  

Thank you for the kind comments, Jean-Louis. Your eloquent words and brave, true spirit remind us all of what is important. You will stay in my thoughts. — Garth