Scars

poster1

Spotted in Van. Note how many tear-off strips are left.

First, let me put this guy out of his misery. There. Now you know.

Regular addicts realize I have made five predictions over the last few months. The dollar will be at par, rates will have doubled, and oil will be $100 a barrel by the end of next year. Longer-term, I also forecast employment would not regain 2008 levels until 2014, and that we’ll be in a real estate recession lasting approximately just as long.

Sadly, lots of evidence this week that my jobs prediction may well have legs. And, if that’s truly the case, there’s no way in this world full of little green plastic shoots that real estate will do anything other than languish.

This is important stuff. Sit up.

The US jobless numbers truly suck. Employment in the latest monthly period was more than 100,000 beyond  what economists expected, at 437,000 new losses. That means some 6,000,000 people have become unemployed in the first six months of the year. Those are Depression-era numbers.

And while the official unemployment rate has soared to 9.5%, the real jobless number is 16.5%. This is higher than it was (15.9%) in 1931, two years after the market crash. That number touched 24.9% two years later, before starting to gradually decline.

Could we be on the same trajectory?

In Canada, economist Dale Orr says there is little doubt the blight of joblessness will continue, get worse next year, and then take five years to get back to pre-recession levels.  Unemployment will likely continue to rise well into 2010, according to Orr, and it will be 2014 until it falls anywhere near the 2007 level. So Canada will still be bearing the scars of the recession, even in 2014.

“There are going to be an awful lot of people out there wondering why economists are talking about this recovery in GDP [but] they are not seeing it when they are looking for a job,” Orr told the Globe.

This lingering employment malaise will happen despite a pickup in the GDP between late 2010 and 2014 – which will result directly in higher interest rates and surging energy prices. It will also be concurrent with desperate efforts by the federal government to get its runaway deficit under control, likely through tax increases such as a ‘temporary’ jump in the GST.

So, add it up. Long-term elevated unemployment. Rising mortgage rates. Goosed consumption taxes. Higher gasoline and home heating costs. A long, slow, uneven recovery from which some sectors and companies will emerge diminished, some not at all.

It’s this scenario I have been describing here for some time. In it, annual, robust, predictable house price increases are an impossibility. Rather, conditions would suggest – at best – a flatlined market or, more likely, a real estate recession from which the next up market will literally explode in about five years.

The implications should be obvious:

* Current prices are unsustainable.
* Current buyers are jumping the absolute top of the cycle.
* Current sellers are geniuses.
* Current mortgages will renew at far higher levels.
* Current power of sale levels will jump.
* Current savers will be richly rewarded.
* Current wisdom isn’t.

US employment June 09

Debt tripping up Canadians -- Friday July 3

126 comments ↓

#1 Nostradamus Jr's Analyst on 07.02.09 at 6:45 pm

“Garth and his pack of loyal followers”???

Excuse me “Chuck”, if that is your real name, but I’m not one of Stephen Harpers MP’s to be muzzled and unleashed on command.

I think for myself like everyone else on this blog so stop insinuating that this is some kind of kool-aid drinking cult.
Your website on the other hand…..

#2 Nostradamus jr. on 07.02.09 at 6:51 pm

…Peter Whiner…

…Vancouver has been “appreciating” for nearly 30 years straight.

I’ve lived in TO for nearly 40 years, owned for more than 10…living now on the North Shore for more than 20 years and currently own 2 houses.

…Ontario is the new found Welfare State

…Vancouver continues to attract wealthy Asians, Europeans and Eastern North Americans…and the North Shore will become the elitist two Municipalities.

Last few North Van Detached MLS RE sales…

Ask $1,699,000/ Sold $1,715,000 962 BEACONSFIELD RD

$799,900/$795,000 1063 ADDERLEY ST

$1,288,000/$1,260,000 1251 RIVERSIDE DR

$799,000/$851,000 4632 HOSKINS RD

$1,099,000/$1,040,000 2182 HIXON CT

$817,500/$780,000 2049 BANBURY RD

$1,239,000/$1,230,000 548 E 4TH ST

$988,800/$950,000 563 TEMPE CR

@ $300 per sq ft

…What don’t you understand?…

#3 @Garth 2 on 07.02.09 at 7:17 pm

Garth, the situation you describe suggests Ontario of all places will truly be on the road to serfdom. Yet, in Toronto, prices are now at record levels. Hmm….

Although I place ample trust in your magic crystal ball left to you by aliens, do you have any reputable sources or even non-anedotal reasons to back up a prediction of $CAD at par with $USD?

If a real estate swoon overtakes Canada, our big 5 will take some temporally dispersed but nonetheless nasty hits in aggregate. How exactly have Royal, TD, Scotia and the rest mitigated the possible impact of this (other than preventative propaganda)?

I notice you have been forced to become progressively more dovish on future Canadian home prices; oh yes, I’ll take “languishing” over crashing any day. Why would you recommend bank preferred shares versus housing in this environment (even on the eve of downgrades)?

Are you reading Kevin Phillips yet?

#4 Nostradamus jr. on 07.02.09 at 7:22 pm

>>Sweden Cuts Deposit Rate to NEGATIVE .25% <<

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

…Europe keeps sinking…

#5 Bottoms_Up on 07.02.09 at 7:29 pm

“And instead of nail-biting about all the bad stuff out there, some of us will keep busy creating value for others that is substantially greater than the amount we’re compensated.”
————————————————-
What is the value he’s creating? And obviously he doesn’t know that Garth’s advice has saved many people thousands of dollars…

Also, did he say people will become wealthy over the next 10 years by owning real estate? hmmmmm……

#6 JO on 07.02.09 at 7:31 pm

The economy will need to get the excess debt reduced through pay down or default before the economy stabilizes and starts growing on a sustainable basis.

The way we are going, the end date for this required process is being pushed out longer than necessary.

I expect house prices to be at least 30 % and probably down more in 3-4 yrs. Your friendly gov’t has been busy using the NHA/CMHC programs and artificially low rates to create false demand by allowing the weakest borrowers to buy homes. These people are home buyers, not homeowners. Yet, in a year or two when the period of despair arrives, these are the same idiots who will get a taxpayer bailout.

Expect a bond market decline of historic proportions starting no later than the fall. Inflation or deflation – doesn’t matter. The bond market has a noose on the economy. God help anyone renewing a mortgage in 2010-2011. What do you think 5 yr rates at 8-10 % will do to the stock of power of sales and nw home sales ? Now add in rising unemployment, you get the picture.

More important than any chart or stat i can show you, the most reliable indicator we are due to an ugly period in RE over the next 5 yrs is the fact most economists/sheeple and living beings in Canada have a remarkably optimistic view of RE as the must have asset. In my 19 years of following markets (started at 12) and 13 yrs of working in financial services (including over 7 yrs of lending), I have never seen such a bizarre optimism toward an asset class – and that includes the spring of 2000 and tech stocks.

The true “victims” in this crisis are those who save and have seen the value of the interest decline severley. Add in the declining value of currencies over the last 20-30 yrs, you can see why it’s those who avoid debt/live prudently that get shafted. No matter what – I will never be a slave of the merchants of debt. End the Fed.

JO

#7 JO on 07.02.09 at 7:35 pm

BTW, savers in Sweden are now charged an interest penalty of .25 %. If Carney dare even think of trying this, I will personally write him and the Finance Minister a letter – and use some very strong language. These central bank clowns think they’re slick…are they insulting my intelligence ??? The hordes of debt slaves are being kept in line with ultra low rates – for now. Yet this is at the expense of the smart ones who avoided debt. Even if the BofC were to charge .25 %, i would still find a way to keep my savings protected. Frickin clowns.
JO

#8 Bottoms_Up on 07.02.09 at 7:46 pm

Canada VS. California

Canada: 50 billion deficit, 32 million people, ‘no worries’.

California: 25 billion deficit, 34 million people, bankrupt.

What’s wrong with this picture????

ps. with California issuing IOUs….CASH IS KING!!!!

#9 Samantha on 07.02.09 at 7:47 pm

Labor force survey from Stats Can:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/labour-travail/lfs-epa/lfs-epa-eng.htm

#2 Nostradamus jr.

Regionalism isn’t going to fix the problems looming over all Canadians.

Regardless of Vancouver’s sales data, if Ontario falls or other provinces fall, all the wealth in the world won’t save people in Vancouver who need to maintain the necessities of life. Vancouver is not an island – and even Vancouver Island needs ferry loads of goods to survive.

My neighbor just returned from a trip to Saskatchewan. He told me today that West of Swift Current into Alberta are drought conditions. Manitoba farmers are having a tough year too, due to the weather. That should matter to you. Those farmers feed us.

In the Great Depression, there were no geographic boundaries to the suffering of the Canadian people during that terrible time. All Canadians struggled to survive those ten terrible years. We are closer to those conditions today than any other time since then.

We need to start shifting our trade relationships and fast. We need to ramp up our manufacturing, at the very least, to provide for Canadians in the event that things become much, much worse than any of us dare to imagine.

Now, more than ever, we need to stand together and fight to keep Canada from sailing into the abyss behind our major trading partner, the USA. We need sustainability, self-sufficiency and a manufacturing renaissance in Canada. We need a spirit of cooperation and compassion, not regionalist superiority or an MLS data urination contest.

We need to give hope to the youth of this Country – that things will get better, that there will be jobs again – good jobs, and that they too, will be able to afford a house because their income will be sufficient.

So, you have been on this earth for awhile “TO for nearly 40 years…living now on the North Shore for more than 20 years”.

What are you doing to improve your community? How are you helping others? What specific constructive things are you personally doing to make your community and your Country a better place?

Or, is your preoccupation with MLS data, the attraction of “wealthy Asians, Europeans and Eastern North Americans” and the creation of “elitist” municipalities the best you can offer after all the time you have been granted on this earth?

You ask “…What don’t you understand?…”

My answer: I am so sorry for what you fail to understand.

#10 Dan in Victoria on 07.02.09 at 7:48 pm

HmmmPH…at least he could have called it your “Biker gang.” Sounds far more sinister.

#11 Onemorething (aka DaHKkid) on 07.02.09 at 8:22 pm

I have posted this before but what about the part time workers!!! From MISH.

The chart shows there are 9 million people are working part time but want a full time job. A year ago the number was 5.5 million.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SkzmCCFwMQI/AAAAAAAAGag/U1vml-5Rk9o/s1600-h/table+a5-2009-06.png

Is this not a trend that is alarming. I submit that for every 5 full time jobs, 1 new unemployed job can be counted in the US. This would account for a 20% loss in wages for the 5 Full time each going into 2010.

Job sharing, pay cuts etc will be the norm. This is why deflation will be around for some time as with hard assets such as RE and AUTOS are SALARIES!

I cannot believe how many Canadians have NO concept of where their own countries GDP is generated from (what and whom).

Answer : 80% resources, about the same USA!

All our eggs will come tumbling down and we will become a safe haven for the Yanks.

S&P 878.88, watch for it next week! If breaks this resistance, you better be sold!

#12 Jack the Lad on 07.02.09 at 8:28 pm

I don’t follow the idea of a “jobless recovery”.

How can GDP increase and industries expand without hiring new workers?

Unless people are being replaces by machines, I don’t see how it happens.

#13 davers on 07.02.09 at 8:31 pm

Nostradamus jr. please dont remind me of the insane state of Vancouvers real estate. I live here and hope to own here but considering it is half the price to rent here and rent is still crazy I wouldnt have much of a shot at todays prices.

#14 OttawaMike on 07.02.09 at 8:32 pm

Sheesh, reading those realtor’s blogs makes me think that one of “Garth’s Pack”â„¢ attacked them like this:
http://www.news4jax.com/news/19916450/detail.html

I’m all for non-violent realtor baiting. It should be declared an Olympic sport just in time for 2010.

#15 Realtor on 07.02.09 at 8:38 pm

Garth, I can vouch for your comment that power of sale levels will jump. I’ve already seen this begin to happen in my area over the last 4 to 6 months and I expect levels to jump higher in the near future with a recent plant closing and layoffs at other industries in my area.

The crazy thing is that most of these power of sales are selling for full pop with multiple offers. First time Greater Fools mostly buying these right now thinking that they are really getting a deal.

It will be interesting to see in a year from now how many of these power of sales are even selling at all.

#16 dd on 07.02.09 at 8:49 pm

#2 Nostradamus jr.,

Seem your numbers are down YOY.

#17 Industrial guy on 07.02.09 at 9:01 pm

1, Unemployed people don’t buy houses.
2, Unemployed or even employed people with houses who can’t make their mortgage payments sell their houses.

The manufacturing sector began its crash in earnest as gasoline prices peaked around $1.47 a litre in June 2008. Hundreds of thousands of people in Southern Ontario lined up over the following months
to apply for Employment Insurance benefits. Many for the first time in their lives.

Let’s move the calendar ahead one year. It’s June 2009.

Those hundreds of thousands of people in Southern Ontario who lined up for EI are now panicking. Their benefits are running out and there are no job prospects on the horizon. The “Spring Recovery” never happened. If car sale in June are any indication, the “Summer Recovery” isn’t happening”. For thousands, their UI benefits will be gone in a few more weeks so who cares about the “Fall Recovery”. By then it will be too late.

The Prime Minister should send his Economics degrees back. What happened to the “Soft Landing”?
…….Phoooey!

The only green shoots anyone can see are the Dandelions now sprouting up from the cracked pavement of parking lots outside closed factories. It’s really simple. Thousands of ex-manufacturing sector employees cannot find work which pays enough to cover their bills. . The only positions available are in the service sector at minimum wage. Most of these ex-factory workers have been scrambling to cover the monthly mortgage payment, tax bills and utilities on their EI benefits and by cashing in retirement savings. Now Doomsday approaches.

The Government of Canada has been little help. First, they denied a lot of UI claimants. Mr. Minister, where are all the “shovel ready” projects? Anyway, by the time we retrain all these 50 year old factory workers to handle heavy earth moving equipment. The money will be all spent.

If you were waiting for the right conditions to create the housing crash of 2009. Wait no further. They have arrived. The Fall is going to be Hell. Only our National Social Programs have delayed the inevitable.

The Tsunami of unemployment is coming folks!!

#18 $fromA$ia on 07.02.09 at 9:17 pm

Garth,

EI is working Saturdays to try to keep up with all the claims!!! Thats 20% more.

Tell me we are not already above 10%+!!!

#19 squidly77 on 07.02.09 at 9:48 pm

zoogle

#20 robert on 07.02.09 at 9:51 pm

Hmm, Nostro… you’ve conveniently overlooked the institution of the “Olympic” Carbon tax by the BC government. Life in BC is going to get a lot more expensive very quickly; our post-Olympic hangover isn’t going to be pretty. I’ve lived in this province for 45 years, all the hype and boosterism isn’t going to hide the fact that things are about to get very lumpy very quickly. Boasting that the housing market in BC will be immune from a major correction is as specious as the prediction that Pets.com could be a money machine. Just look south to Wa, Or, Ca and see what’s going on there. We’re way smarter than they are???? That’s rich..

#21 905er & Spouse on 07.02.09 at 9:51 pm

Garth, thanks for the harsh reality check.

We happened to be driving around Etobicoke this week and were amazed at the number of boarded up, deadened manufacturing facilities.

I don’t know Etobicoke all that well, but it looks like it was the heart of manufacturing for TO at one point with all those plants.

Now, parts of it are a ghost town. We forgot for a minute we were there on Monday morning and not Sunday as so many factory parking lots were empty…
I don’t understand how real estate can be so expensive there when you take a good look around the place.
I suppose these jobs won’t come back anytime soon unfortunately.

#22 Nostradamus jr. on 07.02.09 at 10:00 pm

…dd, Davers & Samantha…

…Yup prices are down Y over Y…and Less expensive than comparable homes to TO….go figure!!!

…Davers, Owning a home is earned or inherited, it is not an entitlement.

…Samantha, my beautiful piranha fish friend…Ontario just recieved $$$ Billions off the backs of fellow Canadians.

imo, the rest of Canada deserves their share before Ontario gets a second chance at the bailout trough…if not, split Canada into two…the right side has become a Socialist Welfare while the left side remains Conservative.

…Why do you think Garth is building himself a bunker?…

#23 Nostradamus jr. on 07.02.09 at 10:06 pm

…robert…

I am specific w/ Vancouver, not BC.

…Asian’s interests are only w/ Vancouver.

#24 South of 49 on 07.02.09 at 10:28 pm

I have to keep reminding myself that some of the housing issues in this blog doen’t apply to many parts of Canada. “Current prices unsustainable”, “…buying into the top of cycle”: these apply to the largest cities in Canada but not to many smaller towns and communities in rural areas across Canada.

In my town, housing prices range from $50,000 to $150,000 – most of the 30 year old bungalows are in the $65,000 to $85,000 range.

A friend of mine in another community near the city of Sault Ste Marie just bought a fairly new house because it was 1/3 to 1/2 the price of building a new (and modest) home on a building lot he already owned.

Unemployment is the common issue, not top of the cycle housing prices.

If you want to see the future, visit small towns beyond the commuting distance of the big cities.

#25 905er & Spouse on 07.02.09 at 10:42 pm

Garth,

Didn’t you ban Nostradamus Jr.?

He is trying to pit region against region. This is not respectful.

I also find calling someone a “beautiful piranha fish friend” disrespectful to Samantha.

I really have had enough of this angry bitter person.

#26 OttawaMike on 07.02.09 at 10:46 pm

#15 Realtor on 07.02.09 at 8:38 pm
“The crazy thing is that most of these power of sales are selling for full pop with multiple offers.”
No kidding, I have been pursuing a few of these and I end up just watching on the side as buyers pay above list or full pop each time. One particular east Ottawa POS house I described in this forum about a 6 wks. ago had sold for 12k$ over asking has since fallen through 3 times. Each buyer has failed to secure financing or the appraisal came in too low. It is pending sold again but not 12k$ over list. What’s this blog called again?

#27 curious on 07.02.09 at 10:56 pm

Car companies are making less cars. People are driving less due to lack of jobs, lack of money. New hybrid tech. lowers the use of gasoline. India/China and other emerging economies are in decline therefore their oil consumption has slumped. What makes you think oil will hit $100? In midst of the firestorm you predict, who will pay for that? Doesn’t stripped demand dictate lower prices? Garth: What is your basis for predicting oil @ $100?

#28 Samantha on 07.02.09 at 11:09 pm

#22 Nostradamus jr.

And what of all the years that people in Ontario contributed to Canada before their manufacturing sector jobs were so recently gutted?

I’m not sure why Garth is building a bunker – perhaps he is starting a trend? There’s one for you Nostie…I can see it now…bunkers lining Cap road up to Grouse. Think of the marketing possibilities…”Can I bunk with you” could take on a whole new meaning. Oh, and how about getting your coffee from “Starbunks”.

#29 Kilt on 07.02.09 at 11:14 pm

Hey Garth, what happened to these predictions?

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008/10/

specifically –
# Eastern cities, including Toronto, will have markets fall another 10%, for a peak-to-Spring decline of 25%.
# Albertan cities will decline another 10% as well, for a rout of 30%.
# Vancouver will crash 20%, taking the average price down 25%, on its way to 40% prior to the 2010 games.

Peak to trough, Vancouver took at 15-16% hit. It has rebounded nearly 5% and June looks like a very strong month.

With all your wisdom, your predictions were wrong.

Maybe you should keep a checklist page of your predictions along with those that have come true, and people might be able to better gauge your credibility on economic predictions.

You might want to be more specific as well. Interest rates rising is a no-brainer. You’ve said they will double by next year – so prime to 4.5%, when next year? I recall Carney saying he will keep rates the same till mid 2010.

Kilt.

If you think this is over, the joke’s on you. — Garth

#30 nonplused on 07.02.09 at 11:17 pm

Garth, you forgot the new “Cap and Trade” legislation in the US. Leaving aside arguments whether carbon dioxide levels cause global warming, what I think we have here is a cure that is worse than the disease. It’s a massive tax increase on economic activity plain and simple, complete with a whole new derivatives complex to further lead the banks astray.

The line from China and India has been “no mas” ever since Kyoto. Their line of reasoning is “40% of our people don’t even have electricity yet, and you want us to limit production?” They have gone so far as to call limits “immoral” while they still have such widespread poverty. So CO2 worldwide will continue to rise.

I still don’t understand the numbers behind global warming. CO2 is a trace gas. 320 parts per million, or 0.032% was the old number and now it’s at 384 parts per million, for a total increase in the composition of the atmosphere as a whole of 0.0064%. That’s powerful stuff it can wreck everything at those levels. And Dog save us from the ice age if they get the overall number to start falling below the original 320 parts per million! It must have been saving our bacon all the way along.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_the_Earth%27s_atmosphere

Interesting from the article that 95% of the CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are natural and would occur without human activity, and that 57% of the CO2 humans have put into the atmosphere has already been “sunk” by natural processes. However, we have still raised the total amount and that may indeed be contributing to global warming because it is quite refractive of infrared radiation. But that’s all just science stuff. Let’s raise taxes now, in the middle of a huge recession!

There can only be one interpretation. The powers that be are trying to collapse the US economy. I don’t think even sheer incompetence can suffice to explain the cynical things the US politburo is up to.

Enact legislation to divert 30% of the corn food crop to fuel use.
Bail out predatory banks, but not mortgage victims.
Bail out unionized companies but raise taxes on everyone else.
Close down small and relatively un-dangerous banks while propping up the ones that caused the mess.
Enact a “stimulus plan” and then spend just 7% of the money, mostly on services and not capital infrastructure.
Force interest rates to zero, bankrupting the retired and fixed income group.
Force banks to lend money to people who probably can’t pay it back.
Propose bulldozing houses while millions are unemployed and homeless.
Don’t bail out States, let them shut down services.
But do force them to fund UI.
Don’t bail out pension funds that bought the crap from the banks.
Don’t hold the banks accountable for marketing unsuitable investments to pension funds and “lying” about the risk of default.
Print unneeded and unwanted money and force it into the system even though the banks don’t want it.
Impose draconian, regressive taxes on energy use.
Raise the military budget.
Start a third front in a loosing war in Pakistan.
Tell the Chinese to go stuff themselves (hopefully with more US debt).

Yikes!

#31 Anonymous on 07.02.09 at 11:18 pm

#8 – Bottoms Up wrote:

Canada VS. California

Canada: 50 billion deficit, 32 million people, ‘no worries’.

California: 25 billion deficit, 34 million people, bankrupt.

What’s wrong with this picture????

ps. with California issuing IOUs….CASH IS KING!!!!
————–
Awesome comparison! My work has actually used this comparison with the Government of California’s spending vs. Government of Canada to negotiate appropriate Discount Levels to match spend. GoC wanted us to match the US Gov’s discount schedule. No Dice! Drop in the bucket by spend comparison and GoC gets a discount schedule in line with California.

Scary though considering that the Governator’s State is not doing too well right now.

#32 Happy Renter in North Van on 07.02.09 at 11:19 pm

#9 Samantha… You are very eloquent – I too live on the North Shore…. The Future “elitist” municipality, according to Nostradamus… But, please understand, we’re not all like this windbag… I think Nostradamus can best be described as the man “who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing”.

#33 Nostradamus Jr's Analyst on 07.02.09 at 11:20 pm

Just a quick reminder of what $500,000 gets you in Vancouver:

http://www.mls.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=7813576

That’s right next to what could be called a highway.

Please ignore my patient, he’s under some delusion that there’s an endless supply of stupid people to buy these “houses”.

#34 Denis on 07.02.09 at 11:26 pm

So … We finally found a place to rent after selling our condo and I wanted to do a quick rent vs. buy comparison and here’s the raw numbers:

We’re renting – 2 BR + HUGE Solarium / 2 Bath (Total 1300 sq ft + Parking in North York – $2000/month all-in including Rogers VIP cable)

Comparables:
#503 – Asking $347k – $680/month condo fees (1200 sq ft) + 2 parking spots
#807 – Asking $365k – $723/month condo fees (probably >1300 sq ft with those fees)
#2007 – Asking $375k – $681/month condo fees (1200 sq ft?)

Nuts! Say we were to put down our liquid cash now that we pulled out of our condo of $125k and get the lowest priced one at a ‘deal’ close to the average for c14 of 95 cents on the dollar ($329,650 – 95% of asking) … That’s 37.9% down and a $204,650 mortgage (5 year at 4.49% – ING’s rate) is $1,131.54 ($750.97 Interest + $380.58 Principle) per month.

$1,131.54 + $680 condo fees = $1811.54 / month and we haven’t even paid taxes. That’s another $208/month. We’re now at $2019.54/month + cable … We’re at 2119.54/month (all-in to compare apples to apples). All to force a savings of $380/month (which is slightly eaten up by the extra $120/month cost of owning above renting).

At a 3.94% annualized decline (calculated based on the Toronto’s decline from 1989 to 1996 using TREB’s Market Watch) which is fairly conservative considering that we’re already down 9% since peak levels in Aug 2008 – http://tinyurl.com/n7r5b5 … On a property that’s worth $330k … We’d also be losing $13,002 / year or $1083.50 / month with is significantly higher than the $380/month of “forced savings” minus the additional cost of ownership … So that “forced savings” quickly disappears as does another $703.50 per month from the 125k down payment.

It’s good to be liquid right now.

#35 Wesley Moxam on 07.02.09 at 11:35 pm

“Current sellers are geniuses”

Hey Garth, why are there so few sellers in Toronto? New listings are at the lowest level in 5 years while sales and prices have recently surpassed 2008 levels.

See “Active Inventory” & “Toronto New Listings”
http://guava.ca/indicators.html

#36 zoogle on 07.02.09 at 11:45 pm

for albertans
zoogle

#37 homeinboca on 07.02.09 at 11:53 pm

Bottoms_up

There is a big difference between Canada and California – its called taxes. California has all those propositions they vote on, to keep property taxes, sales taxes and state income taxes way too low to provide the services they need.
The Fed here can afford to run a much higher deficit and besides, we can print all the money we want. There are no Arnold bucks!

#38 Fool me once... on 07.03.09 at 12:00 am

Nostra,
Us true long time west coasters do not share your observations, as a matter of fact, I question how long YOU have actually lived on the west coast, specifically in Vancouver. My family lived through the 70s price correction as well as the 80s. I can tell you first hand about financial pain. Our cliental is and was Asian, and if you think for a minute they are going to catch a falling knife you’re smoking the local agriculture. They didn’t get to be financially secure buy buying in a troubled market.
And Garth, I though we banned this embarrassment to Vancouverites.

#39 smw on 07.03.09 at 12:04 am

#12 Jack the Lad

80% of our exports go to the USA.

40% of that is energy.

I think with the projected direction of energy costs you can figure out why GDP in Canada will go up and why employment numbers won’t have to move lock step.

But without the investment in agriculture, oil/gas and mining, its just going to create a big fat commodities bull that might finally starve people out.

Got grain?

#40 R1200C on 07.03.09 at 12:08 am

One of the issues I got is:

If oil is at $100 a barrel – isn’t Alberta booming again?

#41 Zoronqueen on 07.03.09 at 12:13 am

travel vultures
http://www.insidetoronto.com/article/70984

too good to be true
http://www.nydailynews.com/lifestyle/2009/06/25/2009-06-25_deals_you_cant_afford_.html?page=0

#42 Basil Fawlty on 07.03.09 at 12:15 am

The jobless figures likely do not contain many government employees yet. The current US deficit is four times higher then last years. Given wage differentials between North America and the BRIC countries, how much manufacturing will return unless wages fall? Contrary to popular opinion, hyper-inflation is a currency event. The low hanging fruit has been picked and the economy that comes back will not look like that of which we are familiar. There is a price to be paid for the folly of the “masters of the universe”, many of whom should be in prison.

#43 Peter Wiener on 07.03.09 at 12:22 am

#2 Nostradamus Jr.

I’ll bet they don’t call you junior for nothing!
Your pathetic attempt at a slight of my name falls far short of amusing, but about as banal as I’ve come to expect from your limited intellect.

With respect to your outrageous assertations re the trajectory of Vancouver real estate prices while not only factually erroneous, is contrary to the factual RE market precedence where markets like Tokyo, Berlin and most recently Dubai that rallied for many years, only to collapse when the market became unaffordable and/or overbuilt regardless of the preceeding duration of the escalation of prices prior to the peak.

But hey, it’s different out there in Vancouver ( I believe now the MURDER capital of the country), everybody wants to move there, it is unique, yada, yada, yada…….

I find it funny that you have to ‘pound the table’ for your viewpoint. Someone secure in their belief of the market dynamics to come would simply sit back and watch it unfold according to their prediction. I find it very telling that you are unable to do so.

It’s either unshakeable faith or delusion on your part – either one is grounds for disregarding any further postings by yourself. Good luck with your life out there in paradise among the drug addled and criminal, probably a step up for you, intellectuallyonly, of course.

#44 FTB on 07.03.09 at 12:29 am

#19 Squidly77 Zoogle – uhhh… no offense but your blog is crappy … I checked it out and it stunk. I would rule you out simply because of your “limited” blog and your potentially disrespectful method of advertising through this blog and possibly others. Try buying google advertising – no wait, you probably need content on your site before that is worth it.

Squidly, how many blogs have you started now? and they’ve all disappeared as soon as you get a comment you don’t like.

#45 Somebody on 07.03.09 at 12:35 am

Green Shoots are actually Yellow Weeds…

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257210/us_job_report_suggests_that_green_shoots_are_mostly_yellow_weeds

#46 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.03.09 at 1:18 am

Manufacturing has to do an about-face, come back here before the jobs pick up again.

With the supposed ‘third-world’ countries more than willing to supply plenty of cheap labor, it is easy for their govts. to snap up dinosaurs like GM / Chrysler / Ford who used to pay plenty in wages and benefits.

Not so with the new locations. Workers there are more than happy to have a nice cheque come in, so does anyone really think they will bite the hand that feeds them?

Not on your bloody life! The wheels grind exceedingly slowly, and change is becoming moreso ever-present. Workers here will have to forfeit their old lifestyles, and learn to pinch pennies.
——
Article from Nathan’s Economic Edge. Along with non-financial stuff happening, things are zooming ahead at zillions of light years! — http://tinyurl.com/nnntfd
——
The world has evolved from Sadaam’s ‘nookular’ WMD to the more sophisticated SMDP (Speeches of Mass Deception and Pandemonium), so ‘owzabout all head honchos gearing up for new false-flag ops. come Sept. / Oct.! (Second link.) — http://tinyurl.com/ln68lvhttp://tinyurl.com/lqefj7

First, it was China who censored the ‘net a few weeks ago, to coincide with the Tiananmen Square protests. Then the link I posted earlier about the US judge, who basically tried the same thing.

Now it’s Russia’s turn. — http://tinyurl.com/lowgpo

One reason why the m$m is so tightly knit — http://tinyurl.com/n65dfg

#47 rory on 07.03.09 at 1:22 am

#9 Samantha:

I applaud the high road but please ensure you are on it yourself …you can blacken Nord Jrs ass if you yourself are doing what you insinuate he is not …so what have you done for your community lately and why does it matter.

#16 dd:

Jeez …you are getting to be a big snore …like get your own life instead of living off of Nord Jrs posts.

Hey all …like it or not Nord Jr pushes people’s buttons …this blog, for all his pretentious pushing, is more interesting with him along for the ride…he is the far out idea …forget his preaching on North Van …look at the bigger picture …if their is a mega disaster what and where will be the safest and why (it may not be N Van so where else)…if China becomes the huge power/economy all talk about what region will benefit and so on …just think in the abstract about what he says…let it take you other places…and so what if the RE does or does not crash in van …you need to look after you……IMO.

#48 Canadian Army Guy on 07.03.09 at 5:30 am

Well… Mr. Dale Orr – whoever he is – is contradicting himself.

Here is a line of what he stated on 15 December 2008 in the Financial Post:

“upward trend of positive growth to begin in the third quarter (2009). We expect the economy to be moving at a good pace by the beginning of 2010”

This guy is WORLDS away from his new assessment that you wrote garth:

“Unemployment will likely continue to rise well into 2010, according to Orr, ”

Read more here:

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/tags/Dale+Orr/default.aspx

Seems to me that Dale Orr is just another one in an ocean of flavour of the day prediction types. Those types seem to change their assessment every two months or so.

This is just to confirm that it is EXTREMELY difficult to see what the hell is ahead of us right now. Or next year.

With past and current trends and patterns, one can only see so far.

#49 Mike B on 07.03.09 at 6:40 am

I would safely say that in Toronto, having looked for a house for well over a year, that many people who are selling own the home outright so have no gun to their heads. So unemployment numbers may not make much of an impact. Have there actually been any layoffs in the downtown financial core?? Perhaps a tiny bit but not enough to make much of an impact IMO.
Sellers are geniuses ?? Not just greedy .. The older ones have also relisted in some cases at higher prices because of all the traffic through the home. Toronto peak prices were 2008 not this year from my experience.
Only the ultra good stuff is selling and mostly below asking price. I would agree that some “buyers” are drunk with cheap money and are leveraging to the max.
Until a significant financial event occurs or rates go up by a fair amount I suspect that the frenzy will continue for at least a year but have some cyclical or seasonal effects. Just way too many agents to help keep the prices higher ….
As for Van… I would only move there if I were retiring but with my luck there would be a huge earth quake and the city would be devastated a week after I moved there!!!

#50 Samantha on 07.03.09 at 7:27 am

#41 Rory

I prefer to do these things quietly, however, you asked so here’s some of my laundry list:

Before health matters became an issue, I volunteered: clinic for persons living with AIDS and HIV, teaching literacy, victim services, palliative care/grief, and helping persons in recovery. I wrote a basic manual on financial managment which I gave away free to people who asked for help….another on emergency preparedness.

I helped (and still try to help) my neighbors and strangers.

That was the first time I responded to one of his posts, Rory, and I asked that of him because he seems to be concerned so much about the qualities of the North Shore. In the context of this particular blog posting, I wondered: does he not see that the MLS listings are not a defense against the greater problems looming over us, so I asked.

Hope that clears things up.

#51 mikewasanengineer on 07.03.09 at 7:32 am

#17 – You hit it right on. Once people use up thier EI and a whole bunch figure out that they can’t keep their homes any more, the fire sales will be on. Timing is the issue, how many and how fast. My bet is next spring we will see, many many empty homes on the market. But it will start in the fall, I bet an extra large double double on it.

I agree with Garth, Milton could be ground zero, but their are many such places in Southern Ontario.

Garth – could you post a list of your top 10 small communities that we could move to. I know you have done extensive research into this, and would be able to post some good places to look at. We are looking at relocating, and need some suggestions.

#52 Jonathan on 07.03.09 at 8:32 am

So speaking of nurses Chuck,…

My sister (a nurse) and her husband, 30 years old, earn 75K & 55K, for a total 130K gross a year. They are probably lucky to walk away with 90K a year net of taxes.

Approved for 700K mortgage.

So this whole leverage game just got a whole lot crazier.

CHMC is insuring these. No wonder the banks don’t give a crap. The bank packages it up, gets the profit, and then sends the risk over to the taxpayers via underpriced mortgage insurance. We sound more like the US everyday.

#53 Jacques on 07.03.09 at 8:56 am

The key to Canada’s bubbly housing success been the CMHC . The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation writes guarantees on most Canadian mortgages originated at greater than 80% Loan-to-Value. This agency has been on a massive expansion binge of late. In 2008, a year of synchronized global recession, the CMHC expanded its mortgage insurance in force by a whopping 18%. CMHC now guarantees $407.7 Billion of high loan-to-value mortgages and an additional $233.9 Billion of securitized mortgages.

In all, the CMHC mortgage guarantees are equal to slightly more than half of Canada’s GDP. Against this total, CMHC has miniscule equity capital of $8.1 Billion. How is it that more than $630 Billion of dodgy mortgages can be guaranteed by an entity posting just over 1% in equity? This is a question that curiously appears to have escaped the notice of Canada’s top notch financial regulators.

ayoye

full text: http://marketdepth.typepad.com/marketdepth/2009/06/sell-the-banks.html

#54 Evangeline on 07.03.09 at 8:59 am

curious

curious

((Doesn’t stripped demand dictate lower prices?))

Not if the warmists are in power. By keeping oil prices inflated, the consumption of oil is deterred to the max, which is a warmist goal.

#55 Darryl on 07.03.09 at 9:01 am

Just got back frrom Pelee Island. I would guess that 15%to 20% of all homes and cottges have 4 sale signs . Didn’t see any sold signs. We picked up info on one home that was about 35 years old , a small one level that looked dated .It was described as waterfront but was on the other side of the road. ….. …. $425,000.00 . On an Island that is a 1 1/2 hour ferry ride and has water problems and access problems. Great wine though.

#56 Alex on 07.03.09 at 9:04 am

With the money supply exploding to the upside, then prices are not going to decline. No how, no way. And anyone who tells you different is either a liar or a fool.

By my figuring, the U.S. money supply has increased from $1.3 trillion in May 2008 to $2.3 trillion in May 2009 (not the reported figure). This is a 70% increase There will be (approximately) another $trillion created in 2010 to finance that deficit, taking the money supply up to $3.3 trillion, then another $trillion in 2011 up to $4.3 trillion and then another $trillion in 2012 up to $5.3 trillion. In 2013, there is at least hope for a new administration which will balance the budget.

Here is the bottom line. To take our wealth, the power structure has to lie to us. Those who believe the power structure (whose voice comes to them via their local newspaper and the TV news) will be robbed. They will not buy gold. They will have their assets in paper money. And they will be destroyed. The few, the proud, the gold bugs…will hold their heads high. The power structure will not have stolen any of their wealth.

Isn’t the world so much more understandable when it’s us and them? — Garth

#57 bigpictureguy on 07.03.09 at 9:17 am

It’s pretty interesting and pathetic watching those who fall into the trap of being baited by NOS JR.

It’s the Attention which feeds the appetite of a stalker. He won and YOU Lost.

#58 Rhino on 07.03.09 at 9:19 am

#46 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.03.09 at 1:18 am

YES! YES!! YES!!! YES!!!!

Without manufacturing, we are only consumers.

People rant and rave about GHG and global warming, then send all the value added jobs to countries without any form of pollution control. If you want a “Cap and Trade” system, then apply it cradle to grave. If you love this planet, then manufacturing must comply, and stop sending that responsibility to “pollution havens”.

I have no problem with “Free Trade” as long as it is applied to a level playing field, and is “FAIR TRADE”.

And thank you Garth for finally putting a number to the REAL unemployment stats. I would hazard a guess to say some areas are well above the 16.5% figure you give. Heck, some folks say that Montreal has been closer to 20% unemployed/underemployed for years now, with the decline of manufacturing and engineering jobs (and anti-separatist company migrations). Think of the “fun” when the present unemployed fall off the EI benefit role, and become “no longer unemployed” thanks to government reporting methods. That should make the goobermint look good when the stats fall… but reality gets worse…

Now.. how can we get the MSM to report the TRUTH?

#59 Evangeline on 07.03.09 at 9:22 am

nonplused

((Close down small and relatively un-dangerous banks while propping up the ones that caused the mess.))

Government meddling in the economy was part of the cause as well. The banks would not have started issuing risky loans had they not been goaded into that practice by the affordable housing policies legislated by the Democrats in the CRA (Community Reinvesment Act.) The banks had no choice but to make the risky loans.

#60 bigpictureguy on 07.03.09 at 9:27 am

The GoldBUGGERs are pretty hilarious. Night and day they stalk and troll Garth’s blog preaching and bowing to the Gold God.

If they were confident on the future of gold, why in the world would they spend they precious time here 24×7?

Oh yeah. Like bible thumpers “We want to save you from hell”

Pathetic.

#61 smw on 07.03.09 at 9:30 am

#40 R1200C

See post #39…

Alberta and the rest of the country won’t start booming again until money gets in the hands of the exploration companies and junior miners, etc.

A buddy has just been called back to drill for PGMs with the outfit that laid him off last fall. So looks like we’re starting back on that trend, which is good news, its what Canada does best, pull shit from the ground.

#62 smw on 07.03.09 at 9:33 am

#58 Rhino

Hard for MSM to talk about whats happening, let along acknowledge it, I mean, like, Micahel’s like, dead.

And talking about the economy is so depressing, and we’re no doing our chosen supreme leader any favors talking about what a disaster all his spending is.

CNN, CNBC are equal to TMZ…

#63 The Gonz on 07.03.09 at 10:01 am

Garth,

I have followed your blog for a few months and I don’t think you have made direct mention to the role CMHC is playing in all this and how such generous insurance underwriting is going to have an impact on banks and taxpayers.

This blog may be instrumental in understanding the aforementioned.

http://www.marketdepth.typepad.com/

Thanks,
The Gonz

#64 debtfree on 07.03.09 at 10:53 am

I wonder if Jwalker’s wife knows that he is using her ill father as fodder for a blog .That is imho so creepy. Stopped me dead in my tracks .

#65 IamEdmontonian on 07.03.09 at 10:55 am

You can not compare job losses in 1931 and 2009. Amount of people in the country, amount of jobs existed, and amount of working people are very different back than and now. There should be way more number crunching than just plain percentage comparison.
But who i am to tell it to Mr.Knowitall

Historical comparisons, although imprecise, are always of value. We lack perspective, as you kindly demonstrate. — Garth

#66 Gord In Vancouver on 07.03.09 at 11:09 am

#13 davers

Nostradamus jr. please dont remind me of the insane state of Vancouvers real estate. I live here and hope to own here but considering it is half the price to rent here and rent is still crazy I wouldnt have much of a shot at todays prices.
__________________________________

Don’t worry about it – if BC’s loss of full time jobs continues its current trend, realtors will be calling you 24/7.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/labour-travail/lfs-epa/t090605a4-eng.htm

#67 Dave on 07.03.09 at 11:11 am

More important than any chart or stat i can show you, the most reliable indicator we are due to an ugly period in RE over the next 5 yrs is the fact most economists/sheeple and living beings in Canada have a remarkably optimistic view of RE as the must have asset. In my 19 years of following markets (started at 12) and 13 yrs of working in financial services (including over 7 yrs of lending), I have never seen such a bizarre optimism toward an asset class – and that includes the spring of 2000 and tech stocks.
————————————————–

exactly, precisely! exactly how I see it. This is what I use as well. People of all levels of education and income think it’s a great time to buy. A market that is overly optimistic for an asset class is due for a significant decline. All these people have pushed the prices up to astronomical levels. There’s no more buyers left. We’re at a climactic point. The more I speak to people, some high income earners, some simple blue collared workers, the more scared I get. They all say the same thing. I’m scared, I’ll be honest. This decline is going to be bad. People that I consider to be smart are saying the exact same thing as people with little education, with little exposure to competent financial people.

All you can do is buckle down, and get the heck out of real estate. I’ve called stuff like this in the past. This decline is going to ruin families.

#68 wjp on 07.03.09 at 11:21 am

“Now.. how can we get the MSM to report the TRUTH?”
Rhino # 58

The answer is advertising dollars…when the truth has the backing of the big advertisers, then the truth will get the coverage…everyone has an agenda…everyone talks their book…if you have enough dollars, you can spread your agenda through the MSM. Even the politicians talk their book! The question is, why would anyone believe them knowing that the dollar calls the shots? And if they do buy the MSM’s propaganda, then they haven’t done their due diligence and unfortunately deserve their fate.

#69 Basil Fawlty on 07.03.09 at 11:24 am

“The GoldBUGGERs are pretty hilarious. Night and day they stalk and troll Garth’s blog preaching and bowing to the Gold God.

If they were confident on the future of gold, why in the world would they spend they precious time here 24×7?”
Because Garth provides financial advice while denigrating gold. Gold bugs find this unbearable and it tightens their sphinkters, which causes rapid typing.
Thank you for your question.

#70 Got A Watch on 07.03.09 at 11:26 am

It’s hilarious, yet pathetic, how thin-skinned these “Realt(ho)rs(TM)” are, isn’t it? They are so arrogantly used to being unquestioned gatekeepers of the road to “real estate wealth” that they can’t handle any criticism, no matter how factual. Far easier to dismiss any who dare utter an opposing viewpoint.

I see our buddy Greg chimed in at the Milton Blog, with “Garth has been unleashing his faceless dogs on more people lately I have noticed. I think on one side it is GREAT to have a healthy debate to allow readers to formulate their own opinion. I juts wish people would be civil, and actually ADD to the conversation.”

These guys do not realize they are the authors of their own infamy. By always pumping, even when their is no reason to pump, they have dis-credited themselves. And the public is finally starting to catch on. Probably why one of the only drivers of the present real estate market are the naive first-time buyers – they are the only ones who will swallow the kool-aid unquestioningly, which is the way your friendly Realt(ho)r (TM) like it.

This is a necessary process, for the real market bottom to be reached. That point when no one wants to talk about or buy real estate anymore, as the psychology of “ever lasting boom” will have been shattered. There are always those with vested interest in the old ways of doing things who strongly resist change.

The entire “real estate industry” needs this cleansing process, to sow the seeds for a future recovery. But those who will be cleansed in that transition are of course not pleased with their new irrelevance, and try to fight desperate but futile rear guard actions. History and market cycles can’t be denied, but they sure do try.

#71 Jonathan on 07.03.09 at 11:30 am

#2 Nostradamus jr.

“I’ve lived in TO for nearly 40 years, owned for more than 10…living now on the North Shore for more than 20 years and currently own 2 houses.”

So you are implying that you are older than 12 years old. That’s a shocker!

#72 Got A Watch on 07.03.09 at 11:51 am

#56 – Alex – There is no effect on Main St from “the money supply exploding to the upside” yet, and may never be. The “bailouts” have all gone to save Banksters, by filling the cavernous gap between real world losses and “book values” they are still carrying. The “flood of cash” is not reaching street level, the Banksters have intercepted it by design.

Wealth destruction and bad credit losses have far out-weighed, and will continue to do so, any amount of Government printing of fresh “credit”. It is simply not possible for them to print that much new “money” of any form to bridge the gap without causing fresh calamity.

This is why, despite all the big talk, the “quantitative easing” programs announced so far are minor blips compared to the losses. It is Government trying to maintain the illusion they are “doing something”, just another lipstick application to the economic pig.

In a normal economic situation, such printing would fuel inflation – but we are not in normal times.

The actions of Governments may cause their currency values to drop, which will ignite some consumer level inflation in the price of imported goods. This is not a real inflation of the whole economy, nor can it be hyper-inflation.

We (the West) are going down the 20 year road of deflation, economic stagnation, falling asset prices, and massive Government debt paved by Japan. We might see 2 lost decades, not just 1, because of incorrect and mis-applied Government policies. Canada is not as deeply underwater as the USA, but we are tied to their boat anchor.

The true road to recovery would be letting the dead be buried, like GM and Chrysler, and the US zombie Banks, etc etc. The bankrupt must go away, and be replaced by new entities unencumbered by mountains of bad debt – without the Government propping them up.

The failure of real loss to be recognized is what will lose us those decades. In the end, policies that do clean up the situation will be brought in – after all other alternatives have been tried and failed. I hope.

Inflation will always follow deflation, but that could be a long long wait given present policies. When and how that turn occurs is a key to investing, but the question is not easy to answer. So far, not much evidence of any “inflation” around the globe, just massive contraction (GDP declines) still ongoing.

#73 Mark on 07.03.09 at 11:51 am

Bah.. why did you make me click on his link to boost his hitcount? I bet he thinks he’s popular now!

His readership has gone up 600 times! (he now has 600 hits)

#74 rory on 07.03.09 at 12:13 pm

#50 Samantha

TY …you earned it so you can now blacken Nord Jrs’ ass if you so wish…lol…but as said you are ‘high road Sam…later.

#71 Jonathan

A most excellent post …hilarious in fact.

As all can tell I am mostly on Nord jr’s side for one reason …he has the same right to express his opinions as we all do …sometimes I even believe some of what he says as I also believe that BC/western Canada is a better place to be than ‘down east’ for the next bunch of years …commodities vs manufacturing + closer to Asian markets …as to the RE prices it is all about location but I am doubtful even Van/N van can sustain the prices as they are just crazy stupid …’nuff said on what I think will happen eventually there and one of the reasons we sold and left that part of the world.

#75 PTDBD on 07.03.09 at 12:40 pm

Global Finance Bank Rankings

#76 ca on 07.03.09 at 12:41 pm

Garth —

You state that “a real estate recession from which the next up market will literally explode in about five years.”

What will cause this explosion?

Also, readers who have been thinking about buying in the lower 48, should read today’s post at
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

Condos in Las Vegas selling for 15 cents on the post peak dollar, and expected to fall further.

#77 dd on 07.03.09 at 12:48 pm

This market on the West Coast is nothing more than mortgage on crack.

It is the worst recession in years and houses are selling with multi offers. What happens when the BoC increases rates and the government pulls in the spending. Is the consumer ready to pick up the ball?

Just because the crowd is buying doesn’t mean that it is a good deal. Usually it is more profitable to go against the herd.

#78 Gord In Vancouver on 07.03.09 at 1:00 pm

Unemployment to rise into 2010: Flaherty

Things will be very interesting once the full impact of this hits Vancouver and Toronto.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/unemployment-to-rise-into-2010-flaherty/article1205554/

#79 Jake on 07.03.09 at 1:27 pm

“And instead of nail-biting about all the bad stuff out there, some of us will keep busy creating value for others that is substantially greater than the amount we’re compensated.”

Isn’t this guy a realtor? What does he do that creates value for others that is substantially greater than his compensation? I’ve only ever lost value when working with realtors. Maybe he offers a complimentary moving truck complete with a big picture of him with his hands up in the air and money floating in the sky. I see billboards like this all the time in Edmonton. What a bunch of clowns…..as professional as professional wrestlers.

#80 David on 07.03.09 at 1:42 pm

I love that Charlton Group letter and the Greg Williamson diatribe. Sorry to tell these guys that there is no “group think” at work and most of the blog dogs like myself reached their conclusions about the housing bubble independently, long before Garth Turner ever wrote his book. Saying that home prices became disconnected from economic fundamentals is branded as fear mongering and pessimism. There are sensible people that actually know better and recognise bubble insanity when they see it.
For better or worse the Loonie has become a petro currency. If oil hits $100 a barrel bet on parity with the US greenback. Manufactured goods coming of Canada will not be so fortunate. Maybe the realtors can explain why the government of Alberta is wildly gyrating between surplus and deficit in the past 12 months.
For all the realtors out there think of this as a chance to enlighten yourselves. Like my Dad used to tell me, “it’s what you learn after you know it all.”

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-science-of-economic-bubbles

#81 Vancouver_bear on 07.03.09 at 2:01 pm

#2 Nostradamus jr. on 07.02.09 at 6:51 pm

Looks like our Nostradamus is back with his old song: “north van, wealthy asians…… blah-blah-blah”. Can you predict us something really interesting rather than the boring stuff we heard from you a million times?

#82 Jake on 07.03.09 at 2:07 pm

#30 nonplused
Excellent post today. Here are a couple of links that you may be interested in.

http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/harris061206.htm

http://warofillusions.wordpress.com/2009/03/30/obama-maurice-strong-al-gore-key-players-cashing-in-on-chicago-climate-exchange/

It is funny how so many of us are so critical about the mainstream media’s spin on real estate and the economy, but see them as patron saints of mother earth when it comes to their spin on global warming and the environment. The jury is still out on man made global warming/cooling/climate change/ inconvenient weather/ Suzikism, or whatever it is called. Do we need to be doing more to take care of this planet, yes. Are cunning men taking advantage of our good intentions to line their pockets, yes. It will be interesting to see where the profits, I mean prophets, of this new Green Religion lead their sheep over the next few years. My guess is they will continue to offer us hope for ourselves and our planet if we just change our ways (and give them our money of course). Maybe we will have to go to confession with Al Gore in a quiet booth adorned with sculptures of polar bears walking on thin ice. Now, if that wouldn’t instill an attitude of penance, I don’t know what would.

#83 Nathan in Edmonton on 07.03.09 at 2:11 pm

#17 Industrial guy
“The Tsunami of unemployment is coming folks!!”
No kidding — I can’t believe this isn’t getting more attention; this fall is going to be nasty. A few laid off friends are taking the summer to enjoy some downtime and plan on looking for work this fall… good luck to them, the competition with be harsh.

#84 Dawn in Calgary on 07.03.09 at 2:53 pm

Fear mongering from the CREB — oh no, buyers, you’ve missed the bottom! Rush in now, before it’s too late!

“Should this trend continue, I think we can confidently say the bottom of the market has come and gone before many buyers had a chance to notice.”

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/2009/07/03/calgary-real-estate-home-sales-june.html?ref=rss

#85 Barb the proof reader on 07.03.09 at 3:10 pm

#28 Samantha, you’re a beauty. Great rebuttal to him, thoughtful as usual. And I agree with 905 you shouldn’t be put in that position in the first place of having your character challenged with words such as pirana. Obviously nothing could be further from the truth.
Neither you or I are afraid to question a comment, but it’s a pity you’ll run into thoughtless put-downs instead.
Garth outta add another hint to his ‘helpful’ reminders:
“Please check your insults at the door and kindly have “real” return arguments”. Now wouldn’t that throw the odd hot-head or the poser for a loop! lol

#86 Future Expatriate on 07.03.09 at 3:11 pm

#60… let’s see, out of 60 posts slightly perused, yours’ is the first that mentioned gold.

Doofus. And in response, only one agreeing with you:

#69: Double Doofus.

Seems goldbugs have more of a life than you two instigators.

#87 timbo on 07.03.09 at 4:00 pm

I just have to laugh at the people who say everything is ok because the drink has not slid off the table yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwa2GQTRxAk

hold onto the kool-aid pitcher and find the rubber boots. The Water is a little cold.

#88 MenWithHats on 07.03.09 at 4:18 pm

Note to Nostrodumbass :
The San Andreas fault line runs right up the coast .
When the big one hits California you can kiss your dumb ass goodbye .
Can you breathe underwater ?

#89 Coho on 07.03.09 at 4:41 pm

Some really good comments from JO…

And speaking of low interest rates, yes, the savers are being punished and many will feel they must invest in the “free” (manipulated) highly fluctuating makets to have the chance of a decent return on their money. Of course many are afraid, and rightly so, that they’ll be fluctuated out of their money.

After all, that is what this ordered economic meltdown is all about…and that is to separate the middle class from its wealth and force it into perpetual servitude to the ruling elite.

#90 Keith on 07.03.09 at 5:45 pm

Despite reading a lot of info my wife and I just bought a house. It’s a small bungalow, very close to schools, transit, cheap to heat etc…but it’s still a house, with a mortgage. (This is my first, my wife’s second).
I’m curious what the folks on this board would do about the mortgage.
5 year closed variable at 2.85 (.60 over canada’s prime)
5 year fixed at 4.35?
10 year fixed at 5.4?
Then there’s the option of splitting the mortgage. You could do half at the fixed 10 year rate and half at variable, etc. etc.
In Japan the rates remained low for 10 years. I noticed Garth recently wrote they could be at 8% next year. What would you do?

#91 Nostradamus jr. on 07.03.09 at 6:17 pm

…Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad, Samantha & Rory…

Respected and germane posters here and I appologize to Sam as to my piranha comment.

Rory, where did you move to?
…tia

…I simply believe, West & North Van is paradise in Canada…Fellow posters can agree or disagree w/ the above.

Vancouver Bear

“”Can you predict us something really interesting rather than the boring stuff we heard from you a million times?””

Ok…if oil goes to $100 /barrel then Alberta is golden.

…and here are 25 Karl Denninger 2009 predictions…some agree and some disagree w/ Garth’s.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

#92 homeboy on 07.03.09 at 6:22 pm

The renties on here are very entertaining; more so than our finance minister.

In any case you people are missing the biggest point.

Our debt might be huge, but our wealth is also humongous.

The collective asset to loan ratio is so high that we will never ever have a depression era..ever again.

Plus with so many people sitting on cash, the housing market will never come down.

The anticipated demand by the bitter renties who missed the boat will be too good to pass up.

All the renties with their cash will forever be holding onto more cash and in the end, they will just get old and spend the rest of their life in an apt.

Your prophet is wrong most of the time; you know what the say..a broken clock is right…you get my drift.

I suggestion is for you rentards to take your money and double down at the casino; try to make some cash so that you can join us homeowners.

Sincerely,

homeboy..
Going to bbq this weekend :)

#93 Angela on 07.03.09 at 7:08 pm

#85 “Please check your insults at the door ”

That would be the end of the master of insults Squidly77.

#94 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.03.09 at 7:09 pm

#58 Rhino at 9:19 am — “Now.. how can we get the MSM to report the TRUTH?”

ABCNNBBCBSFOXITV etc. — Six per cent (elite) control 96% of the aforementioned m$m, so don’t look there for any responsible reporting. Better to keep on keeping on, doing the best you can for your family.

If real journalism is the ideal, stick with the ‘net as no one — YET — controls it.
——
The USSR began breaking up in the late ’80s into smaller countries, Yugoslavia a few years later, and many other countries have also had their fair share of ups / downs / breakups, and that is part of life.

I’m not quite sure why a number of bloggers are upset with Nostradamus Jr.’s views. Like / dislike his / her POV, they are simply accurate opinions, that’s it.

So here are some links to a possible break-up of Canada, mostly due to energy and water resources. It may not happen during our lifecycle, but it will happen.

http://tinyurl.com/lxwn3f http://tinyurl.com/nhnrnd http://tinyurl.com/nxf8qm

“No, this plan was not conceived by any lightweight. It bears the stamp of the evil geniuses who engineered the demise of the Reform Party and resurrected the Conservative Party in the neo-conservative mold already perfected to our south. . . .” — It continues behind Obama’s goody-goody two-shoes rhetoric.
——
#90 Keith at 5:45 pm — “5 year closed variable at 2.85 (.60 over canada’s prime) — OR — 10 year fixed at 5.4”

FWIW, make sure there is some kind of option that you can switch. Even paying a penalty, it may be worth it to have the best of all worlds.
——
Keeping abreast of climate change, a viewpoint which probably most never even thought of. — http://tinyurl.com/njg7dg
——
As you know, precious metals are increasing — http://tinyurl.com/ny93j7 — but scroll down to see the chart of unemployment. How the mighty are falling!

However, there are some commodity warning signs — http://tinyurl.com/njhcxn
——
Turning to Population Reduction / Control, Brit. MP Jonathan Porritt said UK population must fall to 30m — http://tinyurl.com/koao88 — and with the link from the Daily Mirror on the pathetic pandemic making the rounds — http://tinyurl.com/ln68lv — it appears things are moving ahead very nicely.

The UK is now the most violent country in the world — http://tinyurl.com/nvqbmt — and with the link I posted a couple of weeks or so ago, when Ted Turner said a worldwide population of 250 – 350 million is about right, one can see why a lot of shit is presently hitting the fan.

The elite haven’t factored in the natural events, ‘tho such as the two planes going down in the sea for no reason (magnetic solar storms coming from the sun).

#95 Angela on 07.03.09 at 7:12 pm

#79 Jake
“I’ve only ever lost value when working with realtors”

This implies that you’ve worked with them more than once. What is it that keeps you going back for more punishment?

#96 X on 07.03.09 at 7:15 pm

I don’t know why we don’t have more of the nay-sayers posting that they just purchased 5, 10 houses/condos, if they feel that the RE market will continue to rise forever.

Even if you feel RE is currently a solid, wise investment. Wouldn’t you want more of that? It doesn’t matter how much you put down or finance, wouldn’t you want moreof such a good thing?

Hey believe me, if I could buy another place that would enable me to earn $500 a month, I would buy as many as I could.

But I can’t find any like that, at least not within a 15 min drive of where I live. Honestly I can’t find one place that would produce a monthly income stream. (factoring in the odd unrented month, repairs, taxes, rising rates, etc)

So what does that add up to me…..not buying….not at these prices.

How long will I wait…indefinitely, something has to give, and it won’t be me buying for a potential loss.

So let’s hear from the nay-sayers….and the multiple properties that they are buying at current prices.

#97 David on 07.03.09 at 7:41 pm

The Charlatan Group should be thanking Garth for their increased web traffic. There is no such thing as bad publicity there guys.

#98 vanman on 07.03.09 at 8:05 pm

The Edmonton Real Estate Assocation announced today (on CBC and Global Edmonton Evening news) that the recession is over!

LoL! Hahahaha. Then they did a news story that Edmontonians can’t pay for the credit cards and are using one credit card to pay for another. Tsk. Tsk. Tsk.

#99 NS on 07.03.09 at 8:11 pm

92 Homeboy

Enjoy your hotdogs and KD at your BBQ hoe down!

I just got back a few weeks ago from Italy (for 2.5 weeks) which had fantastic weather, excellent food and coffee, and enough culture to entertain a person for life. God, I am so happy that I have the disposable income to enjoy something more in life than the confines of a 2000 square foot place.

Unlike my homeowning (aka bank renting) friends, I enjoy being able to carry on a conversation beyond Costco garden furniture, the best brown bag lunch, and what’s on TV.

But then again, I lack the insecurity of Homeboy to be worried about a mere title – renter or homeowner (aka bank renter). My liquid portfolio affords me that luxury I guess….

One happy renter!

#100 Jonathan on 07.03.09 at 8:25 pm

#22 Nostradamus jr.

You know you are what is wrong with this world. Your ignorant, a loser and an idiot all tied into one child.

I can’t believe I’m responding to such an idiot. But how the F*** can you even say that Ontario has received jack from the rest of this country. Nobody, not one other person, has sent a dime into Ontario. The country is still extracting tens of billions out of this province, even in the midst of a large recession.

23 billion is lost out of Ontario every year and sent into one big coffer for transfer payments to the poorer provinces. When we finally qualified to receive some of our own money back, Flaherty rewrote the rules of transfer payments. The result – we received a hundred million.

If I was McGuinty I would have refused the payment.

#101 David on 07.03.09 at 8:43 pm

The real estate enthusiasts have their fingers crossed hoping that the bears are wrong. NOT!

http://marketdepth.typepad.com/marketdepth/2009/06/sell-the-banks.html

#102 Samantha on 07.03.09 at 8:45 pm

#91 Nostradamus jr.

Nostradamus, apology accepted, but you still think I’m beautiful, right? lol

I enjoyed your #91 post because you spoke about other things. You have so much more you can share and it showed in that post.

West and North Van are beautiful – lived there for awhile myself and it is very nice. Your enthusiasm for this area is great. If you combine that enthusiasm with your insight and share on a broader spectrum you could write some really incredible posts.

So go for it – you can do it.

#103 taxpayer like you on 07.03.09 at 8:51 pm

88 hats – The fault line runs well off the west coast of VI. Vancouver sits on the North American plate. Given that Nosty also lives on the North Shore, he should also have sufficient elevation for protection from any Tsunami.

Nosty – no need to apologize to Sam, for you have called
her a “beautiful…friend”.

Barb – something against Pirahnas?

Rory – you like great danes too and you think I’m “bad a$$? Hey man, this is getting kinda creepy……

Nosty – behave.

#104 Concerned Citizen on 07.03.09 at 9:06 pm

I have been waiting to purchase a house in Toronto for 2 years now. I just heard my friend buy a house, he to was waiting in the sidelines for almost 3 years, but he listened to his wife and caved.
This past month all I am seeing is people buying a house, what is going on, its not like its free, these people are paying a high price for these homes.
I am starting to question myself, should I buy also? but logic tells me now is not a good time to buy.
The only thing which is holding me back not to buy is Garth’s daily update.
Not sure what to do, one part of me says to wait until September 2009.
Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

#105 Samantha on 07.03.09 at 9:08 pm

#92 homeboy

You have some points to make, however, embellishing them again (as you did yesterday) with the term “rentards” detracts from what you are saying. It is a term you (or someone has coined) which draws upon the word “retard”. The way you are using this word implies that you look down upon people who are mentally retarded.

People who are born with mental retardation did not ask to be born that way. They face enough ignorance and stereotyping without having the clinical term for their condition turned into a word that is derogatory.

I have not encountered anyone here who is a “bitter renties” (another interesting term)

As to Garth being a “prophet”, I don’t understand why you think that? He has a passion for this subject and writes about it. The people here can think for themselves. Some people here pose questions. Others debate, or offer information, ideas and thoughts about real estate as well as other issues. It is quite interesting, and maybe, if you dial down the offensive strategy behind your posts, you might just find that others here will be more than happy to respond to you in a positive way.

Enjoy your bbq this weekend.

#106 JO on 07.03.09 at 9:18 pm

If anyone is renewing a mortgage through 2012, i would recommend locking into at least a 5 yr within the next month. Deflation or inflation – no matter, the bond market will be the epicentre (along with currencies) in the next crash phase, which should lead to a sharp rise in rates and the yield curve flattening out and rising. If you can get a 7 yr at a cheap rate, consider it.

Homeboy – that was one hilarious post ! To correct something, as I said in post 6, the only homeowners are those who own the house f/c. The only HOMEBUYERS i feel for are those who put down 20 or more.

Real interest rates are high right now, and all signs point to even higher real rates starting in the fall and into 2010-2011. This is a catastrophe for assets – and especially RE. Canadian RE has basically completed a massive double top formation….look out below.

#107 @Garth 2 on 07.03.09 at 9:24 pm

Gotta love #92, homeboy’s post. Although you could have saved some time by just calling everyone `haters`.

Real estate.. I’m lovin it.

#108 Grantmi on 07.03.09 at 9:28 pm

Eh Homeboy!

I have a new color for ya!!!

Go back to playing with your Lego… and leave the adult talk to highly informed individuals!

#109 Mark on 07.03.09 at 9:36 pm

@92 : You seem to be confusing debt with wealth, and vice versa?

Also I’m amazed at how many people genuinely believe prices will NEVER come down and will KEEP going up. Surely even basic pre-school math can help you figure out why that’s not feasible?

Hint : no-one will pay 20 million for a bachelor condo.

#110 Rick on 07.03.09 at 9:39 pm

homeboy you are a propagandists RE agent scumbag spreading propaganda. Anyone can buy a home today with NOTHING DOWN. It should be against the law for anyone to buy without 20-25% down. Free money had caused people to buy, without free money the RE market crashes. The government gave 50 BILLION dollars to the banks to lend to DEADBEATS with NO MONEY. Right now I am trying to figure out how I can buy with 0% down while hiding my 100,000 dollar savings. When I do figure out how I can join the NO MONEY down people I am going to go into so much debt it’s not even funny. It’s like the world has gone mad where people with NO MONEY and NOTHING to lose buy homes and those who have MONEY to lose don’t want to take that risk. I am sick of NO MONEY living the good life while I WORK and SAVE. WTF is going on? WTF is going on Garth?

#111 Rick on 07.03.09 at 9:51 pm

WTF is going on? How do we live in a world where people with NO MONEY are able to buy a home with NOTHING DOWN? How do people with NO MONEY bid up the price of housing with NO MONEY? How can people be allowed to buy a home without having any skin in the game? I work and SAVED but why should I risk my savings on overvalued housing and compete with people who have NO MONEY and put NO MONEY DOWN and have NO RISK? How is it that I have to compete with people with NO MONEY when buying a home? Has the world gone mad? People have NO MONEY yet they shop and buy homes as if it their money. Over a HALF A MILLION Canadians are 90 days Behind on their credit payment since they have NO MONEY. The worst part is these people with NO MONEY(homeboy) talk down to those with MONEY since they have a house on BORROWED MONEY which they could never and will never pay back? Very soon I am going to come up with a plan where I will borrow and then leave Canada with a HUGE debt .

#112 john m on 07.03.09 at 10:12 pm

Great post Garth ..a world of reason in your comments..makes one wonder what reasoning is motivating the buyers of today..the only answer i can fathom to that is they are extremely gullible and totally lacking in common sense. The US markets crashed today when word came out about the unemployment rates..sure gives a good indication of the common sense and research motivating the people who have driven the market up..(would not all those investors have taken the time to be already aware of whats happening–boggles my mind…but nothing surprises me anymore. Thanks for telling it like it is Garth

#113 Andrew toronto on 07.03.09 at 10:15 pm

Garth , Took a trip to Niagra falls and surrounding region this week.. Finding a place was not a problem in fact the place I stayed even lowered their price when I hesitated about going somewhere else ..

Ended talking to the owner before I left he says he’s never seen it this bad Especially during this weekend. He attributed it to 2 things

1) U.S Citezins requiring a passport to cross over

2) Unemployment up..

and said this BUSH really messed things up bad..(his quote) and he’s been doing this for 50yrs

asked someone else at a diner there same story .. usually they are pacted but the place was practically empty.

It seems a lot of businesses are being affected in many areas including Tourism. Unfortunately tourism will be crushed more so when the dollar becomes par ..

These are Truely unchartered territories

#114 john m on 07.03.09 at 10:15 pm

homeboy..
Going to bbq this weekend :)….thats too bad no food in your fridge?? :-)

#115 Bottoms_Up on 07.03.09 at 10:36 pm

#90 Keith:
—————————-
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2009/07/variables-and-first-time-homebuyers.html

Go to the link, pretty good article that suggests prime can move in jumps:

•0.75% (In 1 month – Feb 92 to Mar 92)
•3.50% (In 2 months – Sep 92 to Nov 92)
•2.50% (In 4 months – Feb 94 to Jun 94)
•2.75% (In 4 months – Nov 94 to Mar 95)
•2.50% (In 12 months – Sep 97 to Sep 98)
•1.25% (In 7 months – Oct 99 to May 00)
•1.25% (In 13 months – Mar 02 to Apr 03)
•2.50% (In 39 months – Apr 04 to Jul 07)

question is, how long will it stay low? Japan long?

#116 Barb the proof reader on 07.04.09 at 12:09 am

timbo,
Per your line about the liner “I just have to laugh at the people who say everything is ok because the drink has not slid off the table yet” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwa2GQTRxAk

What a great line. Although.. it took a second to ‘sink’ in.. ha.

#117 rory on 07.04.09 at 12:31 am

#91 Nostradamus jr.

I moved to …wait for it …dum ta da dum to the Okanagan …still crazy stupid house prices but at least I have land to grow and prosper on (for the same price or lower) and hunker down on without the mind numbing population/rat race… water is my biggest long term concern but given all other areas in Canada here is a good spot …close but far away …western Canada is a good place to be for the next bunch of years…of course, IMO… cherries soon to be picked.

#118 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.04.09 at 12:54 am

Half year hiccups and check-ups, from a US perspective. — http://tinyurl.com/nvyttd
——
Birth = Death. Everything in between is filler material, but it’s rapidly clearing up! — http://tinyurl.com/n9g76y — Remember, the US Fed was created in 1913 as a private institution, not public. The following, from 1933 is still in effect, so match them up with what is happening now . . .

“Act of March 9, 1933, a declared state of emergency at the request of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This state of emergency was never lifted.

“Global pandemic – Level 6 – Mortgage/housing crisis – Banking/lending crisis – Automobile industry crisis – Insurance industry crisis – Healthcare crisis – Southwestern border crisis – Black market drug crisis – National education crisis – Nature/global warming crisis – Jobs/unemployment crisis – On-going weather and forest fire crises – Extreme and unread congressional legislation crisis due to on-going crises”

Bought in 76 years ago — is that an accurate forecast, was it pre-planned or what?! BTW, I’ve run outta crises to subject myself to — anybody got one to spare?!
——
It took Russia a week or so to thump Georgia into submission, but they seem to be back for more punishment. — http://tinyurl.com/nl96w3 — Or possibly this time around, Putin will personally “hang (Mikheil) Saakashvili by the balls”, as he is a western yes-man who has fast become nothing more than a pain in the arse.
——
From Mark Morford at the SF Gate — http://tinyurl.com/m258ru — the first sentence is quite amusing!
——
Sumtin’s taking a bite outta da Big Apple! — http://tinyurl.com/krbcx8

#119 Barb the proof reader on 07.04.09 at 1:44 am

Increasing numbers of Canadians are struggling to pay their bills.

Did you hear that Money’s Too Tight To Mention.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqOuu1uz0sY

I been laid off from work, my rent is due.
My kids all need brand new shoes.
So I went to the bank to see what they could do.
They said “Son, looks like bad luck got a hold on you”.
Money’s too tight to mention.
I can’t even qualify for my pension.
I went to my brother to see what he could do. He said “Brother I’d like to help you, but I’m unable to”.
So I called on my father, father… What’d he say?
“Money’s too tight to mention.”
Oh money, money, money…
We’re talking about Reaganomics.
Oh, sitting in the Congress.
They’re passing all kinds of bills.
From up there on Capital Hill.
Now they’re telling me..
Money’s too tight to mention… Cutbacks!
We’re talkin’ about money, money…
We’re talkin’ ’bout the dollar bill.
And that old man that was over the hill.
Now what are we all to do.
When the economy’s got a hold on me and you?
Oh money, money, money, money.
Money’s too tight to mention. Yes it is.
I’m talkin’ ‘bout dinero. Money.
I’m talkin’ ‘bout money, money..
We’re talkin’ about money, money…

Writer/singer Mick Hucknall, recently said, “This song was written in the 1980s, and here we are back with the same old shit”.

#120 Vexed in Victoria on 07.04.09 at 2:41 am

Ah, this morning’s news from the Victoria Times-Colonist fills a body with a warm glow. Not only are the cuddly, beleagured Vancouver Island marmots returning to their homes, but there’s this:

“Victoria Real Estate Market Hot Again: Sales Numbers Near Record Levels — Victoria’s real estate market is officially hot again now that June sales numbers hit their third highest monthly level in recent years and single-family prices continue climbing.”

http://www.timescolonist.com/Business/Victoria+real+estate+market+again+sales+numbers+near+record+levels/1752805/story.html

And all is right in The Land of Milk and Honey once again. Cripes…

#121 Vancouver_bear on 07.04.09 at 3:18 am

#92 homeboy on 07.03.09 at 6:22 pm

You can continue with your mantra but remember one thing: “he laughs best who laughs last”. You already had your turn….http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/07/01/free/#comment-34150

#122 Mike B on 07.04.09 at 5:37 am

Homeboy…technically you are not a home owner till your mortgage is paid off.. You are just 3 missed mortgage payments away from the cardboard box in the street.
Truth be told..most of us were owners…now rent… just like the stock market… take your profits when the time is right. Most feel the time is more than right now /
Will there be a big correction… in some cases yes… all across the country… nope… some are already cheap so to speak.
Enjoy the Q.

#123 Mike (Authentic) on 07.04.09 at 5:54 am

#2 Nostradamus jr. “…Vancouver has been “appreciating” for nearly 30 years straight.…Ontario is the new found Welfare State…Vancouver continues to attract wealthy (potheads)…”

Come on, give it a break buddy! What are you a pro-Vancouver Realtor?

Everyone knows Toronto is the centre of the Universe, everything revolves around Toronto, even Hongcouver.

Mike

#124 Grantmi on 07.04.09 at 9:30 am

Speaking of Color… I see that the BOB RENNIE RED is out in force again in today’s Vancouver Sun!! (Which just announced that it is raising it’s subscription prices as of Aug 1st due to low advertising revenue)

Who says the MSM is not in Bed with the real estate industry! Check it out. Bob has two FULL PAGE ads in the Sun today. One on the back page of the first section… hawking the idiots that bought at the Richards Landmark owned by Aquloonie!!

Another full page ad on the back of the Westcoast Homes section also pushing Richards and some other dream money pit……. and Geeeehh!

What do we find!

On page 2 of the WCH section.. a East Vancouver home that sold for….. ready for this…. $824,000!!! $25K over asking price! (After they couldn’t sell it last fall… according to Paul Eviston.. because people were low balling them!)

Only in Vancouver could you get $824K for a home on a 25ft x 112 ft lot!!

But guess who the BUYING agent company was! Oh… wait for it!! RENNIE MARKETING SYSTEMS! What an absolute coincidence! What are the odds!

http://i44.tinypic.com/cibkz.jpg

Come on people.. open your eyes… this MSM RE push is a slight of hands.. with everyone involved that matters!

Move along… nothing to see here!!

Thanks for the Van intell. The picture on today’s post is from your link to the Sun. Truly inspirational. — Garth

#125 Gord In Vancouver on 07.04.09 at 10:02 am

Canadian credit card delinquencies are increasing

http://www.news1130.com/news/local/more.jsp?content=20090703_142325_8416

This better NOT be the sign of things to come or associated with increasing real estate sales.

#126 Janet Wiebe on 07.04.09 at 10:30 am

Just read your last two books, Garth.

People just don’t understand what being a prophet is all about. It isn’t foretelling, it is warning and advising to avoid disaster and to move toward blessing, co-operation – to live long and prosper – and that is what I see you doing in your writings. That cannot be done in mute silence and acquiescence.

Therefore you encourage dialogue but when it degenerates into defensive stridor instead of reasoned input to assist in the situation and the point is missed, we all lose.

You do write as a journalist, which is why I do my own writing. I ponder more. But, you are sharper and quicker and have resources at your fingertips and that too is what we need in this digital world….so long as we don’t get that electrical storm that was rumoured to me for 2010 and the lights and everything electrical go out……At least my bicycle and key don’t need electricity to work.

Remember the ozone layer crisis? It wasn’t bogus. We did something about it. That is what you encourage Garth – intervention. Thanks.