Free.

Calgary McMansion1

They laid the last thousand people off at the Navistar truck plant in SW Ontario on Canada Day. This came along with news Chrysler sales crashed more than 40%, GM sold 33% fewer cars and two major-city Canadian television stations sold for less than $5,000. For both.

There are rumours, too credible to entirely dismiss, that a US bank holiday will declared before the end of the year. And don’t be too shocked if Air Canada files for bankruptcy.

Hard to polish these turds. And yet everyday we see media, politicians, bankers and realtors doing their best to inspire confidence, spending and new debt. We’re being told housing has shaken off the recession and prices are on the move. It’s a story many young and inexperienced buyers are swallowing.

So, let’s have a reality refresher. And for that, where better than Calgary?

For those of you wanting a nice cowboy McMansion, check out this private sale. Five bedrooms, five bathrooms, two-storey ceilings. Granite (natch).  Elevator, hardwood.  Two fireplaces, 2,000 square-foot finished basement. In-floor heating, deck, double car garage. His and hers adjoining ensuites and walk-ins.

Rock Lake Estates NW. Listed two days ago.

Appraised value: $1.2 million.

But here’s the deal, according to the desperate seller: Take it for nothing. Nada. No money down. In fact, take it for free and get enough cash at the same time to make all the financing payments for at least a year.

The owner is offering the buyer $125,000 for the down payment on the digs, dropping the sale price to $1 million. Then, a bonus gift of $50,000 cash. “So,” says Peggy (who is also flogging a no-money house in Airdie), “you’ll be getting it for just over a million and all without putting any of your own money down, giving you instant equity plus cash in the bank for payments.”

Irrestible, eh? Especially if you don’t know what’s coming.

But if you always wanted to live large in Cow Town, send her an email: [email protected]

Let us know how it turns out.

87 comments ↓

#1 lgre on 07.01.09 at 10:34 pm

job losses, plat shut downs, government deficits etc, etc, but who cares, according to some bloggers..RE has one place to go..up. Only because that’s what they’ve been dreaming about.

I have been telling people to get out of AIG stock for over 2 months, AIG just had a reverse split 20/1 with a 22% loss today and 20% on monday..now they are crying and calling for lawsuits againts online brokers and AIG, someone to blame due to their own stupidity and greed..this will be a deja vu for the RE market for the people who dont listen.

#2 Nostradamus Jr's Analyst on 07.01.09 at 10:41 pm

Thanks, but I wouldn’t want to live large, small, or anywhere else in Alberta – it’s full of Reform Party whackjobs.

Speaking of which, I’m putting together an anti-Harper campaign ad for this fall. If the posters here have anything to add, please let me know.

“He once hugged his own children, just to see how it felt.”

“He wears sweaters while campaigning….in September, to make him seem more…. interesting.”

“Panicked by the prospect of losing his job, he begged his boss to shut down the entire country so he could save his own skin.”

“He is….the least interesting man in the world.”

#3 prairiegopher on 07.01.09 at 10:47 pm

Well Garth, I just came back from Calgary a week ago. My daughter and Her Fiance’ just purchased a new home in the North end of Cowtown. They paid more for their house than my parents farm sold for a couple decades ago. Here’s the clincher, if you walked from one end of my parent’s farm to the other end you worked up a good thirst. If you walked to one end of my Daughter’s property and turned around you could spit a mouth full of water and hit the other side. It is absolutely ludicrous what people are paying for these boxes. You don’t own the house the bank owns you! That’s what this is all about. If people woke up from their fantasies and saw they are being bilked of their salaries then the developers, realtors, bankers, car companies and all the rest of the businesses that make their livings by being blood suckers fail. People wake up and smell the rip off!!

#4 joel brico on 07.01.09 at 10:52 pm

It’s looks vacant from the pics. . From our rented inner city house in Calgary I have watched the infills go in next door. It’s been a year and half and they are still for sale. Each side is $829,000. Open house every weekend. You gotta give Max an A+ for effort.

Blog does not help:

I am still get huge pressure from my wife to buy. She reads your blog too. I she says she feels more secure in her “own home”. I feel more secure with the cash in the bank from the double in RE we both got 4 years ago when we got married. RE is so emotional. I go back to the blog and re-educate myself and not to give in.

Blog helps allot:

A guy at work was in the process of finalizing a divorce. (No kids – thank goodness). A while ago I suggested he read the blog and convince his soon to be EX to take the “condo”. I know he got the best of the bad situation. She got the “equity” in the fancy condo and he got cash. He is quite happy – even if on paper she got “more”. The blog helped him realize the situation and that RE is so emotional and he used that to his advantage. Lucky guy: got rid of two “pieces of illiquid baggage” at the same time.

#5 taxpayer like you on 07.01.09 at 11:18 pm

Was this the house from the McLeans $1M list? Looks familiar.

A double ga-garage? (Kick me) What a rip! Where will the Harley go?

#6 Joseph on 07.01.09 at 11:20 pm

Garth.

I am beginning to think that there is a method to this madness of setting ever lower mortgage rates by our Canadian financial institutions. I can not believe that they watched the financial meltdown in the US only to pursue the same reckless course of fiscal ploicy making here in Canada, precipitating the prospect of endless domestic home foreclosures and putting our own banking system at risk.

I am beginning to be of the persuasion that the financial planners within Canada are also all too keenly aware of the two year lag time between our two economies that you have been discussing, and decided that if they prop up our economy, albeit artificially, just long enough (for the 2 year lag time), the US economy will then be on the road to recovery which will then solidify and stimulate the underpinnings of our own economy in such a way so as to dodge the real estate bullet that the US has experienced. Barring another unforeseen international economic catastrophe, their plan may just work. What do you think?

#7 Alberta Boom on 07.01.09 at 11:42 pm

So what’s coming.

#8 Dawn in Calgary on 07.01.09 at 11:44 pm

Wondered if you got that link. I bet it won’t be long on the market — ppl are crazy here.

#9 HJD on 07.01.09 at 11:50 pm

And what, pray tell, should one do in preparation for a possible “bank holiday”?

#10 nonplused on 07.02.09 at 12:01 am

Got to give her credit for trying. But I’d make sure the cash back is in trust with your lawyer before closing the deal.

I can’t understand how there are so many million dollar homes around. I mean, they would have been 500,000-600,000 just 3 or 4 short years ago, but now they are a million. Using Garth’s 40% rule, that means the purchasers of these homes are all worth $2.5 million or so. But we read in other places that but 1 in 200+ people can claim that sort of net worth, even in Canada.

Garth’s rule has even more dramatic implications for new home buyers even at the lower end of the market. “Net worth” means total assets minus total debt. So someone with 20% equity in their home and no other significant assets is actually 100% in real estate with a lot of leverage, which is much more than a broker would allow on margin. Except for these online currency brokers who seem according to the adds on the radio to be approaching 5:1 margin but I guess the forex markets are assumed to be less volatile than stocks. A move against will still wipe you out though.

But I think, perhaps, that buying a modest home for about the same cost as renting, (use an interest rate of 5-7% over the life of the mortgage when doing the calculation, even if you can get a much lower floating rate for now) might still be a good investment for many people even if the leverage is high. But you’d be talking the lower end of the market, $300,000 and down, only. A million dollar house does not have a “rental equivalent”. You are not speculation on avoided rent in that case, but rather something else entirely.

#11 nonplused on 07.02.09 at 12:28 am

PS a side note on Garth’s “climate change” theme. In Calgary we aren’t seeing any global warming this year, haven’t all winter and spring, temperatures have been cool. I think it’s the lack of sun spots, just a normal sun cycle, but some people think global warming causes global cooling, but whatever! That’s not my point.

The other thing that has been happening here besides lower than normal temperatures is not as much precipitation as usual. The fields in Alberta are looking like a wipeout for crops this year unless irrigated. I understand great sections of the Midwest are behind as well, but not all from lack of rain, some from too much.

But anyway, here on the water co-op, which was going to be my subject, we just got a nasty note from the board of the co-op that water usage this weekend was 3 times normal levels for this time of year, the wells can’t keep up, and the cistern is running dry. The water situation was described as “dangerous”. A reminder was issued that the system cannot handle “lawn watering” (mostly 4 acre plots) and a suggestion was issued to conserve water in every way possible.

So much for independent water supplies. We are going to be trucking water in from Calgary soon if this keeps up.

On the lawn front, I never water or fertilize it. I just get on the tractor and mow it down. I don’t bother with mulching, takes too much gas, and just let the trimmings lie where they will. It gets to the same place that way. Most of the neighbors seem to do the same thing.

Weird thing is, it’s July 1. Normally, this time of year, there is always a tractor going somewhere in the neighborhood. You have to cut at least once a week. But my little tractor hasn’t left the garage in 2 weeks, and then it only went out to do a “dandelion run”. The grass is mostly brown, with a very thin bit of scattered grass attempting to actually grow. Certainly not enough to slow a soccer ball down. This would be normal for late August and September, but for June it is quite disconcerting.

And if my grass isn’t growing, neither is the farmer down the road’s crop.

The road to Fort Mac was closed recently due to wild fires.

My daughters play soccer all over the city, and the fields are as close to a dirt bowl as I have ever seen them. The fields in Calgary always suck, but this is pathetic. It’s dirt from one end to the other. The fields look like the head of a hair transplant recipient.

The ski resorts had a bad year. I got in 3 powder days (ya! Powder.) But out of 151 possible days that’s pretty bad. They never built a proper base, and it was rock skis all season. Delirium Dive didn’t open until March and I didn’t even bother this year. Fernie (BC) never got up to snuff until March either. No serious snow that stuck.

The run off is already receding, a month ahead of schedule.

That’s the water report from Alberta.

Climate change is not global warming. It is change – whether increased or decreased moisture, higher or lower temps. Change is change. And rapid change in any climate is bad news. — Garth

#12 rant in Calgary on 07.02.09 at 12:48 am

I agree with what you are saying, however, it seems “the people” keep doing “things” to prove you wrong. The false spring market appears pretty real!

#13 WillsDad on 07.02.09 at 12:49 am

Why are you publishing emails of people?

Kind of slimey…

Huh? — Garth

#14 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.02.09 at 12:49 am

“. . . Take it for nothing. Nada. No money down. In fact, take it for free and get enough cash . . .”

which can also be translated as

“. . . Money for nothing (and the chix fer free).

Dire Straits (when they were still rocking the stadiums) probably would have this scenario in mind. If the seller is that desperate to flog the place, can some legal whiz-kid not set up a lottery, say tickets $50 each or three for $100?

The proceeds go to the bank, the winner gets the place for a song and the original owner lets go of the albatross around his / her neck. Banks may not be gung-ho on this idea, ‘tho.
——
Speaking of TV stations, not much good news for employees of CHBC-TV in the Okanagan. — http://tinyurl.com/m66b5s
——
Another blow for the greenback. — http://tinyurl.com/msmbk7

And for those of you into oil, gas and other resources — http://tinyurl.com/m8sl7w

“Dmitry Orlov, author of Reinventing Collapse, explains why the fall of future oil supplies is likely to be swift and severe in The Slope of Dysfunction”.
——
Good enough reasons for six per cent of individuals to control 96% of the m$m; ABC is also the spokesperson for the WH. Second concerns finances. — http://tinyurl.com/kuyjdr /\ http://tinyurl.com/ls7u8g

“. . . global central banks “recyl(ing) these dollar inflows (into) US Treasury bonds to finance the federal US budget deficit; and most important (but most suppressed in the US media), the military character of the US payments deficit and the domestic federal budget deficit.”
——
Re: Cdn. banks, complete with chart. — http://tinyurl.com/ll5m5c

“The Impact on Canadian Banks of a Bubble Burst

“Levered “only” 12:1, Canadian banks may find that loan delinquencies rise beyond historic levels. The “good” mortgages, consumer credit and business loans all look vulnerable when one looks at individual cases with which we are familiar. Could the market value of the loan book of Canadian chartered banks be less than 92% of its face value? . . .”

#15 The Tallyman on 07.02.09 at 1:08 am

The fool who buys that property is going to have an albatross hung around their neck.

” Rock Lake Estates NW. Listed two days ago ”

the name says it all… sink like a rock!

#16 Chincy on 07.02.09 at 1:35 am

Evidently Peggy does know what’s coming Garth…and she also knows how to try and sell a $825,000 home for $1.2m (correct me if my math is wrong).

#17 Onemorething (aka DaHKkid) on 07.02.09 at 2:02 am

nothing like having that baby hit $600K in 3 years and interest rates double in 5 years on renewal. The person looking to sell is not in trouble, just knows its time to cash in sit the sidelines for a while. Likely has over $500K of equity after the discount and sale which any poor Canadian sucker will jump on.

ZERO equity if they dont sell! No brainer!

#18 Eduardo on 07.02.09 at 2:45 am

Why wouldn’t someone buy this and lock it in for a 10 year mortgage at 5.75%… problem solved Garth. Then you can stop your whining about rates rising…. of course they are going to rise. It’s the only way they can go.

http://www.firstline.com/PDFs/printrat.pdf

Don’t pretend like there’s no options and everybody is going to get pillaged by rates.

#19 Anonnnnn on 07.02.09 at 2:57 am

Yep, hang on to your cowboy hats, another crash is in the making. So hope you’ve enjoyed and profited from the bear rally, because that’s exactly what it was.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0U1vMUa2sc

Don’t wait until Sept to get out of the markets, or you will be crushed in the next leg down.

And if that doesn’t do the trick, wait a couple of years to see what happens when China completely stops funding US debt…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiuXCNGFb_M

…heck wait a month or so to see what happens when California almost defaults on its massive debt…
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2009/06/29/daily20.html

… only to be rescued by Obama and the PPT… at tax payer expense no doubt and/or further devaluation of the US dollar.

Combine this with the ARM resets starting in May 2010 and lasting for 18 months and it’s a recipe for disaster. Or at least, a very looooon recession. Think this won’t affect Canada? Dream on.

Garth’s right about one thing, this ain’t over by a long shot. High inflation starting by mid to end of 2011 is practically guaranteed.

#20 Mike (Authentic) on 07.02.09 at 5:13 am

Bank Holiday (which people have been talking about with growing interest).

To understand what MAY happen, see what did happen in the past:

“Emergency Banking Act

The Emergency Banking Act (also known as the Emergency Banking Relief Act) was an act of the United States Congress spearheaded by President Franklin D. Roosevelt during the Great Depression. It was passed on March 9, 1933. The act allowed a plan that would close down insolvent banks and reorganize and reopen those banks strong enough to survive.

On March 5, 1933, the day after Roosevelt’s inauguration, he called a special session of Congress which instituted a mandatory four-day bank holiday. This act provided for the reopening of banks after federal inspectors had declared them to be financially secure.

The bill also gave the Secretary of the Treasury, William Hartman Woodin, the authority through an amendment to the Trading with the Enemy Act to confiscate the gold of private citizens beyond the value of approximately $1700 in 2009 dollars (excluding dentists’ and jewelers’ gold and “rare and unusual” coins) in exchange for dollars. No one was successfully prosecuted under the act for failing to turn over gold, and the few prosecutions that occurred in the 1930s for gold hoarding were executed under different statutes.

Within 3 days of the act’s passage, 5,000 banks had passed inspection and were reopened. Roughly two-thirds of U.S. banks quickly reopened under this act, and faith in banking institutions was somewhat restored. After the banks had reopened, for the first time after the Stock Market Crash, banks had more deposits than withdrawals

This act was a temporary solution to a major problem. The 1933 Banking Act passed later that year presented elements of a more permanent solution, including formation of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).” – From Wikipedia

Mike

#21 Mike (Authentic) on 07.02.09 at 5:26 am

And now for what news is out there for the Bank Holiday planned for late August or early September.

“Bob Chapmans influential International Forecaster is reporting on the possibility of a so-called bank holiday planned for late August or early September. According to Chapmans sources, U.S. embassies around the world are selling dollars and stockpiling money from respective countries where they operate.

Some US embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies, writes Harry Schultz, enough to last them a year.

Schultz believes the global elite are in the process of engineering an FDR-style “bank holiday” of undetermined length in order to “sort-out the bank mess” and impose new bank rules

As Schultz notes, another forced “bank holiday” will likely lead to a formal devaluation of the already broadsided U.S. dollar. “But devalue against what? The euro? Doubtful. Gold? Maybe. Or vs. the IMF basket of currencies,” which he feels is more likely.”

http://www.prisonplanet.com/bankster-%e2%80%9choliday%e2%80%9d-planned-for-september.html

Mike

#22 TS on 07.02.09 at 6:58 am

Re: the two television stations that were recently sold for by CanWest for $5,000….. let’s also remember that CTV tried to unload THREE of its money losing TV stations to Shaw Communications for $1 each.

After Shaw completed its due diligence and examined the books of each of the stations it CANCELLED its $1 offers to buy the stations.

http://globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/GAM.20090701.RTV01ART1943/GIStory/

In fairness, the financial state of the stations cannot be blamed completely on the recent economic recession. It has been reported that the Windsor station has been losing money for the past decade.

It speaks to the health of our most indicative ‘canary in the coal mine.’ The media. That was my point, which you reinforce. — Garth

#23 JET on 07.02.09 at 7:29 am

Here’s a good way to clear out some inventory!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/second-fire-strikes-mississauga-townhouse-project/article1203070/

Garth,
I am realizing something – the comments on your blog seems to be somewhat of a contrarian indicator (I’m sure I have contributed to it as well). During the cliff diving months, most people were hugging you with their comments. Time to buy (and you bought). Now, I see many people slapping you with their comments. Time to sell (and you sold). Good moves. I think I might be on to something here…
JET

#24 squidly77 on 07.02.09 at 7:35 am

ah…realtors like eduardo

Why wouldn’t someone buy this and lock it in for a 10 year mortgage at 5.75%… problem solved Garth. Then you can stop your whining about rates rising…. of course they are going to rise. It’s the only way they can go.

selling the rates and not the house
think like them and you will end up like them….broke
you too can be a loser
http://fredila.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/loser.jpg

#25 squidly77 on 07.02.09 at 7:37 am

edmonton

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pKhf_Qhx1jfrbTbcuR-dHSw&gid=1

gulp…..

#26 Just another Joe on 07.02.09 at 7:38 am

Heh, just got recently 3!!!! of my friends families with a new bought house. 2 of them with no money down. The mantra is simple. Money are so cheap now that makes perfect sense to borrow. Is not a matter of the house itself. Just money. It is cheap, so why not borrow now??? Later will be too late cuz interest will go only up. So now is the time. Had nothing to tell them. Cheap money makes at the end an affordable monthly mortgage payment…….

#27 Nick on 07.02.09 at 8:15 am

Re: Post 21 from Mike.

How reputable is that site you linked to? Some of the quotes given in the article weren’t sourced. The one quote at the end from a “newsletter subscriber” seems questionable.

Hey Garth, any hints on where you heard about the banking holiday that could be coming down the road?

#28 WillsDad on 07.02.09 at 8:28 am

Why are you publishing emails of people?

Kind of slimey…

Huh? — Garth

Clarification. Why did you feel the need to include the woman’s email in your post?

Don’t see why she is in the public realm. She has a right to try to sell her house without a bunch of blog readers inundating her with emails.

Stick to what your good at, and try to stay away from the school yard antics.

I provided a link to the public sale notice, which contained her email. ‘She’ is also not a private homeowner but a professional realtor whose ‘no-money-down’ techniques are illustrated by this listing. Put your outrage back in your shorts. — Garth

#29 lgre on 07.02.09 at 8:54 am

Eduardo – I know a handfull of people who hold mortgages and non hold or even think about a 10 year..that is just a dream..many are variable and some 5 year,,the variable group is already sweating and wishing they locked in that 5 year at 3.xx% not too long ago. Even the most passive buyers are not looking at a 10 year. Great for text book but not reality.

#30 TS on 07.02.09 at 9:06 am

The US economy continues to shed more jobs that predicted by economists… this will continue to put downward pressure on the overall economy as consumer spending represents over 60% of GDP in the US. Since over 70% of Canada’s exports go to the US continued rises in US unemployment will keep our industries operating far below capacity, and put pressure on Canadian companies to trim more jobs here as well.

While some cities are experiencing another real estate bubble of sorts (brought on by hopeful optimism not backed up by economic fundamentals) I think Garth is spot on when he predicts that this bubble will soon burst and prices will once again deflate.

http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investing/news/businessnews/article.aspx?cp-documentid=20624848

#31 Popeye the sailer man on 07.02.09 at 9:11 am

#6 Joseph

I had this same thought also, it maybe possible that that MSM and government may pull the wool over our eyes long enough during the low interest rate sell-a-thon to embolden sellers and convince buyers that they will miss the boat and should buy now while you can, long enough for the US housing to hit bottom and start a real recovery. Then “they” will point to the US and say that since the US is recovering, we dodged the bullet and we will reap the rewards of a stronger US economy. “They” will renew there saying “Buy now before you’re priced out again”.

MSM now says Canada is different and we will not follow the US meltdown, then “they” will point to the US later when it serves them as a reason we will go up later.

The relatively small number of Canadians that read this Blog will have little influence on the market as a whole. The market may take a very slooooow decline over a few years partly due to emboldened sellers, sheeple buyers, and manipulating MSM who cherry picks its news and is to lazy to do there own research and reprint RE reports from RE boards and Companies as facts.

I have been reading this blog since September 2008 and tried to tell people I know about it and my thoughts about RE, but no one wants to listen, I my self am starting to think that we as a whole can get the wool pulled over our eyes enough that we will avoid the big leg down that many of us see.

I agree with Garths reasoning, logic and number crunching, but sheeple as a whole run on emotion and MSM is pushing there buttons of greed, fear, and shame (to be a renter), it may manipulate things enough.

For example who would of predicted 0.25% BOC rates and 2.7% Var, and 3.5% fixed rates in Q2 0r Q3 of last year. Or who would of predicted the US would spend like a drunken sailor (PS; I’m a sailor and sober) and convince the world governments to do the same to prop up there economies.

“They” will say anything, do anything, massage statistics to convince us to spend to prove them right!

#32 squidly77 on 07.02.09 at 9:21 am

eduardo
why do people need a 4.5% cash back mortgage ?
why do people need a no documentation mortgage ?

i thought that people were buying a home with the intent of paying it off

#33 miketheengineer on 07.02.09 at 9:22 am

How to prepare for a Canadian Style emergency….

2 week stock of food in house, canned goods or dry goods.

A large gas can full of gasoline.

Propane tanks for the bbq full. Have 2 minimum.

Small amount of cash in case you need something. (about 100 bucks should do it.)

A small stock of drugs you may need. (ie Asprin)

I have read on this site, that it takes about 2 weeks to restock a food store. In a panic, it will be wiped clean in a day. Will the debt card system work? Will the credit cards work?

These are the big questions…..

Better safe than sorry. Can your young children go with out peanut butter for 2 or 3 weeks….

If you are prepared for a “Quebec style Ice Storm” then you can last just about anything other emergency.

Just prepare.

Oh, and maybe one of those “bad day boxes” as Garth suggests.

#34 smw on 07.02.09 at 9:23 am

#18 Eduardo

I think if your buying today with no equity, despite how cheap money is, your buying for 10 years, so I agree, you should be locking in for a ten year purchase.

Thats the minimum lentgh of time it will take for real estate in Canada to smooth itself out.

Signing a mortgage today and going variable would be kind of silly.

Bank holiday or not this fall, I’m hearing that the “FALL” will be just that, again. A bank holiday would be as good as reason as any to push the markets back 20%.

#35 613 Happy where I am on 07.02.09 at 10:00 am

The US Jobless rate is now at 9.5% and climbing…

I can see the economic storm clouds coming when my private sector friends, who made a ton of money during more robust times, tell me they envy the “stability” of a government job/paycheque…

One of my friends, a Realtor, is telling me that the suburban areas of every major city in Canada is going to be hit with a ton of bricks in the next six months. (Foreclosures, people desperate to sell, etc.) Downtown properties will be less affected because there is always a demand (prices will fall across the board, however.)

She says she is seeing signs of this happening now, with more inventory, houses and condos staying on the market longer, and going for less than what the owners had originally thought was a fair price. Forget the “we’re different because this is ….” (Ottawa, Vancouver, Toronto) arguement because it’s going to hit suddenly and hard.

The fireworks are coming… I am surprised they haven’t lit up the sky yet…

#36 Keith in Calgary on 07.02.09 at 10:02 am

Geez……..that house built of cardboard and sticky stone is worth $300K max to me…….seriously. Your gas bill from just commuting will go up $250 a month becasue of it’slocation. Kinda like the high rise condo next to me with $1,000 a month condo fees !!!! Gack….money pits.

#37 Nostradamus jr. on 07.02.09 at 10:26 am

#5 Happy Where I Am

…I have stated that Toronto and Vancouver Proper are the only places to locate to.

and how long Toronto’s RE will stay strong as it is “Canada’s Newest Welfare Province” is anyone’s guess.

…Golden Horseshoe is a lot closer to Detroit, New York than is Vancouver.

Asia’s, California’s and Eastern North American’s wealthy are relocating to Vancouver…The North Shore will be considered the elite of the elite locations soon after the Olympics brings this fact to light.

#38 Another Albertan on 07.02.09 at 10:40 am

It’s worth repeating the story of a family friend and mentor from back in the 80’s.

– he bought a 10,000 sqft house in old Riverbend in Edmonton in late 1981 for ~825k.

– the original list price was $975k; the replacement value was $1.4M

– they thought they had a great deal because the house was obtained for 15% off the list price

– 3 years later, in 1985, the house was valued for the purposes of a business transaction at $300k (but likely could not have sold easily, as few – if any – would have been able to qualify for the financing)

– in late 1998 – 17 years later – the house was sold for $550k (one of two homes in Edmonton selling for more than $500k that year), but not after having had well over $1M in renos and upgrades during that 17-year period.

Everyone else’s long-term mileage may vary on these modern-day Big Bomber McMansions…

#39 MikeB on 07.02.09 at 11:10 am

If this house is in Fort Mac … forget it… if ya got a million just buy some place in the tropics.. at least it is warm.

#40 TS on 07.02.09 at 11:12 am

“#18 Eduardo on 07.02.09 at 2:45 am
Why wouldn’t someone buy this and lock it in for a 10 year mortgage at 5.75%… problem solved Garth. Then you can stop your whining about rates rising…. of course they are going to rise. It’s the only way they can go.

http://www.firstline.com/PDFs/printrat.pdf

Don’t pretend like there’s no options and everybody is going to get pillaged by rates.”

Eduardo you seem to have a rather simplistic view that locking into a 5.75% mortgage for 10 years now, will somehow be the answer to the fundamental problem of buying grossly overpriced real estate. Needing a $500,000 mortgage is a simple reality check that indicates that homes are grossly overpriced today. Let’s not forget that this is REAL money that needs to be repaid.

If we assume that someone could actually afford the 5.75% rate locked in for a 10-year term WITH a 10-year amortization their monthly payment would be $5,488.46 per month. The total mortgage cost of the home to the buyer would be $5,488.46 x 120 payments = $658,615.20. At the end of the 10-year period they would own the home outright and the interest cost would have been a total of $158,615.20.

Perhaps your logic is that it doesn’t matter whether the value of real estate has tanked or not in the future…the buyers still own their home after 10 years. A couple of questions remain… who really wants to own an asset that they have paid almost $660,000 for that is only worth 60%, 75% or even 90% of what they paid for it? The other question is how many buyers out there can actually afford to pay almost $5,500 a month for their mortgage, PLUS taxes and utilities? The answer… very, very few.

Let’s take a closer look at this issue with a mortgage of $500,000. Based on what we’ve seen on this blog many young couples seem to think that a half-mil mortgage at today’s rates is ‘affordable’ – especially when taken out with a 35 year amortization which seems to be the norm.

Hmmmm…. $500,000 locked in for 10 years with a 35 year amortization would generate a monthly payment of $2,767.50. Over the 10 years the buyers would have paid a total of $332,100 in mortgage payments and would still owe $439,910.83 in principal.

So let’s look down the road with two likely scenarios… the first is that mortgage rates have returned to a more ‘normal’ 8% and the second is that mortgages are now at 9.5% and the buyers renew the mortgage for another 10-year term with a 25 year amortization.
At 8% with a 25-year amortization the buyers would now have a monthly payment of $3,395.30. At 9.5% with a 25-year amortization the buyers would have a monthly payment of $3,843.39.

Under the first scenario another 10 years of payments would have cost them $407,436 and under the 9.5% scenario they would have forked out $461,206.80. After 10 years of 8% payments the buyers would still owe $355,287.12 and under the 9.5% scenario they would still owe $368,070.07.

So, after 20 years of payments that “GREAT DEAL” back in the hot market of 2009 that created the need for a $500,000 mortgage would have cost the buyers between $739,536 to $793,307 and they would still owe between $355,287 and $368,070 in principal! At that point even if the buyers could lock into a ‘sweetheart deal’ of a 5% mortgage for the balance of the 15 year term their monthly payment would be $2,809.59 and they would have paid another $505,726.20 to completely pay off their home.

35 years, and a total of $1,245,262 in mortgage payments (a minimum estimate), to pay off that original $500,000 mortgage. That’s an average of $35,579 per year in after tax income for 35 years.

Where would the money for retirement funding come from for all those years? With a 35-year amortization the buyers would probably be about 60 years old before they had their home paid off. Where would the money for kids’ education come from, etc.?

The lesson here is obvious. Because of the front end loading of the interest component with any mortgage, buying overpriced real estate is NEVER a sound economic decision regardless of how low current mortgage rates may seem. At some points rates will go up and the interest paid keeps on ratching up higher and higher over time.

For anyone interested in calculating the long term impact of various mortgages the following web site is very helpful:

http://www.homeloanslocal.com/mortgage_payment_calculator.asp

#41 Marina on 07.02.09 at 11:14 am

GARTH,

if “bank holiday” will likely lead to a formal devaluation of the U.S. dollar – it simply means starting of hyperinflation. But you have mentioned that hyperinflation is not possible for the next few years. Please advice.

Hyperinflation is a government action. It does not happen without a country purposefully flooding its own money supply to the extent its paper is massively devalued. The US will not do this. Period. — Garth

#42 squidly77 on 07.02.09 at 11:49 am

its agreat time to buy people
http://albertabubbleblog.blogspot.com/2009/07/its-agreat-time-to-buy.html

it really is

#43 613 Happy where I am on 07.02.09 at 12:09 pm

#37:

To hinge your hopes of surviving the massive economic storm coming our way on a two-week spectacle of so-called amateur sports (and winter sports, at that) is just foolish. More than 3/4 of the world doesn’t care one iota if the Canadian hockey team wins a gold… The Olympics did nothing to bump up Calgary’s or Montreal’s economy… I know people in Vancouver think they live in paradise because the weather is more moderate than in other parts of Canada, but it is still Canada and it does get…gasp! …. snow once in a while…

I laugh at those people who think their little property is not going to be affected by the economic situation we find ourselves in. They are deluding themselves. It’s bad and it’s going to get worse… I kid you not…

Take a good hard look at your financial situation and get serious about cleaning up your finances… The fact that the Canadian economy is sputtering along and not flatlining is a moot point… I will say that by Christmas we will be in the throes of an economic mess most of us have never seen before…

The stock market and housing prices will be down…. way down. The price of oil will remain high… governments will be forced to cut jobs… welfare and unemployment numbers will swell… food costs will decrease slightly as people start to eat more KD and less imported fruits and vegetables.

I am getting ready… Have a big dog and a squirrel trap all set…

#44 WAB on 07.02.09 at 12:17 pm

82 Jonathan on 07.02.09 at 12:00 am
#63 WAB

You say what.. that there will NEVER be a crash in Vancouver real estate..

Buddy you need to look at Vancouver’s real estate history – it’s all about crash and burn.

Vancouverites incomes don’t support half of the current valuations on real estate – let alone a million. This current real estate market is more cause for concern than relief – even president of CHMC said so.

************

#86 gold bugger on 07.02.09 at 2:12 am
WAB, I’m interested in your definition of “never.”

What a badly disguised real estate shill you are. How much is your commission? Professional curiosity.

**********
Sorry to disappoint but I am a long time bear who was simply commenting on the current and past market conditions (with a dose of frustration and sarcasm), and putting forward a theory that I hoped someone would critique. Specifically, in regards to when the crash might occur (i.e another five years), and whether the same scenario that played out in the last few months would repeat itself in the future, thereby mitigating price declines.

I was hoping for something a little more substantive than a vitriolic response about industry shrills. At least Bottoms Up (74) provided some hard data with the UBCM Sauder graph…

#45 Kenken on 07.02.09 at 12:33 pm

I am new to this country (been here for 1 year only).
And in my very early 30’s (wife and I) and would count as first time buyer looking for a house to buy.

Let me do a comparison:
Canada is like a US State (dont mean to offend anyone here).
Canada has lower average family income
Canada has more space (supply of land) and much lower population (demand for land/house)
Canadian dollar is lower than USD
Canada exports 80% of its output to US – which is in full swing recession with record unemployment and falling demands.
Canada bails out the same US companies located here to ensure their survival – it’s like Canada follows US policies.
All big firms (in many sectors – Finance, Manufacturing, Oil, Forestry, Auto) depend on US consumers/economy

And yet, average house prices are higher in Canada than US

… what kind of world are we living in? Are ppl buying properties in Canada, stupid or blind or deaf or hopeful Canada will find a magic door and exit the recession without the US recovery?

I have lived, studied and worked in a few countries/continents (Down Under, Africa, Asia) – and hardly have I seen ppl so stupid here!
It may be a wish to possess a home…but what’s the point to working hard and long hours to pay mortgage and bills and not enjoy the home. We spend hardly anytime in houses… the average person sleeps 7-8 hours, leaves home at 7am, work and back at 7pm. That leaves 4 hours per weekday (usually watching tv) and weekend – when most ppl are outside, shopping, visiting, etc…
And with such excessively high prices, the price per hour spent in a home must be the most expensive ever!!

For comparison, a fully furnished luxury villa on huge plot of land next to the beach on a tropical island cost USD500K – and with dollars in your pocket, you live like a king in those places!

#46 TJ on 07.02.09 at 12:37 pm

Sure…everything is just peachy.

Check this:

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declares a fiscal emergency as lawmakers failed to pass a budget to close the state’s $ 24.3 billion gap.

The emergency means that the state may start issuing IOU’s instead of checks as soon as Wednesday. Schwarzenegger also ordered state workers to take a third unpaid day of leave every month, to help save the largest state in the US some 1 billion dollars annually.

http://tinyurl.com/m9hwyt

The world’s largest economy has lost about 6.5 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007. That’s the biggest drop in any post-World War II economic slump.

Today’s jobs report showed factory payrolls fell by 136,000 after decreasing 156,000 the prior month. Economists forecast a drop of 150,000. The drop included a decline of 26,500 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries.

More firings are in the works following the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler LLC as shutdowns ripple through auto-parts makers and car dealers.

Payrolls at builders fell 79,000 after decreasing 48,000.

http://tinyurl.com/nkfeoe

But – heh – no problemo here in Canada.

We have Jim Flaherty and that Goldman Sachs alum, Mark Carney, looking after us.

If that doesn’t scare you – nothing will.

#47 David on 07.02.09 at 1:07 pm

Undoubtedly big line ups will be forming to buy that McMansion with a zero down Jumbo McMortgage. That Garage Mahal only requires an annual pre tax family income of about $400K to safely support this wonderful “lifestyle” home.

#48 PTDBD on 07.02.09 at 1:36 pm

think about it the next time you vote….

Considering that Alberta, California, Canada, and the USA are just coming out of !Boom! times during which the coffers should have been stocked to the brim, isn’t it totally irresponsible that governments should be so broke so quickly?

#49 Peter Wiener on 07.02.09 at 2:27 pm

to #37 Nostradamus Jr.

You know, I think I preferrred your contributions when they were borderline insane, pointless and even somewhat racist. One could scan your postings and easily determine that you were your usual self – uneducated,, unworldly, untraveled, inexperieced, moronic, delusional, racist. We knew who you were, what you stood for (kinda sad actually) and your approximate level of maturity (pretty low) and we overlooked it knowing you weren’t thinking.

However, since your (overdue and warranted) trip to Garth’s purgatory, you have been trying to use your brain, with limited success, to teach and enlighten as to the prospects for Vancouver real estate, particularly post the 2010 Olympics (without references or sources to back up your claims). Why don’t you do a little research on what happens to the housing price trends in any city in the past 50 years or so that have hosted the Olympic games, especially in Barcelona (you know where that is located, right?) and other cities that had appeal already without the Olympics. In almost every case, the price of housing declined substantially after the Olympics were held. Basic ‘buy on rumour’ and ‘sell on the news’ market dynamics, something that from your posting has entirely escaped your consideration as an investment strategy.

My humble suggestion – go learn something before you try to influence or teach others, or you are just another opionated BC’er trying desperately to escape the inevitable crash and burn you guys so richly deserve.

You know, if you are that convinced about Vancouver’s future RE prospects, why don’t you beg, borrow and steal your way into a house in Vancouver right now genius?

Oh, can’t? No dough? Wonder why? Must be all your business / investment acumen, eh!

#50 jess tree on 07.02.09 at 2:50 pm

el nino forming

noaa

#51 wjp on 07.02.09 at 3:30 pm

#49 Peter Wiener on 07.02.09 at 2:27 pm

While I may agree with your basic message, I do not think personal attacks add to the blog. The gentlemen’s reference to Ontario is a baiting tactic which you just swallowed whole…might be better just to ignore anything written by such a contributor!

#52 GREAT GAZOO on 07.02.09 at 3:40 pm

HEADLINE:
Toronto city workers are greater fools AHAHAHA!!
The only time being a “greater fool” will benefit the City of Toronto by possibly ending the strike!

And I quote:

<<>>

NO WONDER THEY NEED TO BANK THEIR SICK DAYS!

#53 GREAT GAZOO on 07.02.09 at 3:41 pm

Quote didn’t paste…

I’m not getting a paycheque next Thursday,” one worker said on the picket line at the Ingram transfer station on Thursday.

“I just bought a condominium. I’m supposed to moving on the weekend. We got bills (to pay), I’ve got contractors in there doing work,” said outside worker Lance Parson. “It’s tough. It’s day by day now, I guess.”

Other strikers admitted they were finding it tough, saying they were carrying big mortgages themselves.

#54 TJ on 07.02.09 at 3:44 pm

A new report says Canadians will be fighting to recoup what they lost during the recession for several years.

The analysis from Dale Orr Economic Insight shows that even by 2014, Canada’s economy won’t have totally recovered from where it might have been had the downturn not happened.

Orr says the size of Canada’s economy will only be about 95 per cent of its potential in 2014.

He estimates gross domestic product per person, the best measure of Canadians’ standard of living, has contracted by 4.3 per cent to $38,100 in the current third quarter of 2009 from $39,760 in 2007.

It will take until 2012 before Canadian per-capital GDP recovers to the 2007 levels in real terms after accounting for inflation, and several more years before they get to levels they would have achieved had the downturn not occurred.

The bleak picture comes as new jobless numbers from the U.S. indicates the economy there is still months away from stabilizing, much as Canadian employment data next week is expected to show.

But, heh, the worst is behind us and it is a great time to get a house. For sure interest rates will stay in the basement because, well, shoot, they just have to – don’t they?

http://tinyurl.com/nlrvdr

#55 Jam on 07.02.09 at 3:47 pm

“The grabbing hands grab all they can,
Everything counts in large amounts…”

What an amazing song, brings me right back.

Lyrics from Depeche Mode, very fitting with todays
BAILOUT BS.
So fitting, years after- this song fits
perfectly with the lies and greed going on today.

They warned that if they did not throw billions of tax payer money at these stupid companies, unemployment would be @ 8%, we’re WAY above that now!!
You watch, this scam won’t help one bit, just make the rich, richer, what a shame.
The only thing sadder is that most people know it
is outright theft and do nothing about it.

#56 Peter on 07.02.09 at 3:55 pm

#45 Kenken
Let me do a comparison:
Canada is like a US State (dont mean to offend anyone here).
Canada has lower average family income
Canada has more space (supply of land) and much lower population (demand for land/house)
Canadian dollar is lower than USD
Canada exports 80% of its output to US – which is in full swing recession with record unemployment and falling demands.
Canada bails out the same US companies located here to ensure their survival – it’s like Canada follows US policies.
All big firms (in many sectors – Finance, Manufacturing, Oil, Forestry, Auto) depend on US consumers/economy

And yet, average house prices are higher in Canada than US

… what kind of world are we living in? Are ppl buying properties in Canada, stupid or blind or deaf or hopeful Canada will find a magic door and exit the recession without the US recovery?

I have lived, studied and worked in a few countries/continents (Down Under, Africa, Asia) – and hardly have I seen ppl so stupid here!

Yes, I thinck you are right. Come to Alberta and you will see how prices here and how smart ppl here!!!!!!!!

#57 PTDBD on 07.02.09 at 3:59 pm

PTDBDenterprisesInc. is now offering colour, embossed, high-quality IOUs for your personal needs. Use them with confidence until your cashflow improves.

Our most popular graphic is the “Green Shoots” edition along with the big O “Change We Can Believe In” and “Yes we IOUcan” personal signature offerings.

For Canadians, show your pride with the “Strong as Canadian Shield” and “No deficit, under any circumstances” nostalgia printings. They’ll bring tears to your eyes.

(Sold in packages of 1 Trillion…you will spend them in no time)

#58 Marc on 07.02.09 at 4:16 pm

think about it the next time you vote….

#48 PTDBD on 07.02.09 at 1:36 pm

I used to be a committed voter, but the Ms. Dawn Black ruined that for me. I voted for her in 2008, and less then 6 months later she resigned to run provincially. So us taxpayers get to foot the bill for a by-election so an oppertunist can get new job provincially. I voted municipally, in Nov. and 2 city councillors have resigned to seek nomination for the upcoming federal by election. Again, city taxpayers get to foot the bill to fill the vacent city council seats. Seen as I helped get Ms Black her federal seat, by casting a vote for her, I hold myself partially resoncible for the gross waste of money. For the first time, and not the last in our provincial election I voted for everybody, deeming my ballot spoiled. I will continue to do this for the future until the quiters foot the bill themselves when they resign their seats and seek work elsewhere.

#59 homeboy on 07.02.09 at 4:19 pm

The bitter rentards are up in arms today…let’s see here..most of the population are meeting their monthly payment obligations and me being 29 years old, am only one year away from paying off my home.

I paid 190k for it and the last 4 homes on my street sold for 400k within days! You people must remember the media always blow things out of proportion and then you have Garth..jeez this man is as senile as they come.

By the way you people will *never* ever be able to own a home in a nice neighborhood…it doesn’t matter what links you provide and all the stats..in the end the interest rate will remain low and when people see it is going up they will just lock in.

Learn basic economics and know that the money supply is still with the fed, parked and not being used..how can that cause inflation? you people are stupid beyond belief.

Good luck with your apartment renties..hahaahahaha

-Sincerely,
One happy home owner.

#60 ally ally oxycontin free on 07.02.09 at 4:50 pm

#1 lgre on 07.01.09 at 10:34 pm

Good points on AIG … See trailing referencing AIG and postulating Goldman Sachs as being major market and government manipulators.

“From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression — and they’re about to do it again.”—Matt Taibbi—Rolling Stone

http://bigpicture.posterous.com/goldman-sachs-the-great-american-bubble-machi#

….then look for the ‘download’ button …

“Carbon Trading” …. estimated futures trading values /
volumes … $1 TRILLION PER YEAR

#61 Gord In Vancouver on 07.02.09 at 5:07 pm

Terrible News For Presale Real Estate Investors

http://winnipeg.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20090702/recession_report_090702/20090702?hub=WinnipegHome

#62 pjwlk on 07.02.09 at 5:10 pm

#4 joel brico: “Lucky guy: got rid of two “pieces of illiquid baggage” at the same time.”

You nearly made me spit my coffee out on the floor with that line. LOL Keep up the good work!

#63 jess tree on 07.02.09 at 5:37 pm

who’s going to tame the “rogues” and take away their electronic trading toys

…back to real demand and not “virtual demand”
==========

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said private-equity firms acquiring failed banks should hold them for three years, double the time imposed in the latest transaction, to prevent “flipping” them for short-term profit. ..
The largest U.S. bank to collapse this year, Coral Gables, Florida-based BankUnited Financial Corp., was sold in May to firms including Blackstone and Carlyle. Those buyers were told to hold the lender for at least 18 months. ” Then what?

#64 lgre on 07.02.09 at 5:42 pm

#60 ally ally oxycontin free on 07.02.09 at 4:50 pm

The funny part is that some investors actually think that AIG is recovering..one day they will turn on their PC and the stock will be de-listed just like NT (nortel). Its so clearly written on the wall, a company selling ALL their money making assets but still not enough to convince some of the sheep..oh well, their money..

I read that article by Taibiti and its a great article..just look at GS stock..its up in the heavens while every other bank is struggling…..makes you wonder..the corruption is slapping everyone in the face and the majority is still looking the other way.

#65 Evangeline on 07.02.09 at 5:48 pm

((Barring another unforeseen international economic catastrophe, their plan may just work. What do you think?))

I think that if Obamarama is gunna be in power for 4 years it will be at least a 4 year lag before anything changes for the better. His big government politics and irresponsible, drunken sailor spending are business hostile and there will no no growth at all during his tenure.

#66 ralph on 07.02.09 at 5:50 pm

Well, #59 Homeboy give yourself a pat on the back.

When we bought our first home we financed to keep the monthly payments to less then 30% of after tax income. We also put down 45% cash from savings. So with my wife working part time we were able to pay the rest of in five years. Interest rate on the mortgage was 11.5%.

In hindsight there are things we could have done different. But the point is to live within your means and always plan for worst case scenario. I think that is the message Garth is making sending here.

#67 NS on 07.02.09 at 6:01 pm

#59

Good for you “Homeboy.” Its nice to see someone displaying their social retardation after living in their parents basement during their formative years in order to secure their DP.

In the mean time, I am 32, and have accumulated a portfolio that exceeds the value of your home, even after the the crash of 08. And thats after moving out of my parents place at 17. Personally, I like the freedom of international travel, fine dining, and sleeping at night knowing that I am not a greater fool.

Guess I will continue to wait and follow my investment strategy of buy low, sell high. Let me know when you want to sell close to your original purchase price (adjusted for inflation of course), and I will pay cash.

But to each their own….

#68 molson cdn on 07.02.09 at 6:03 pm

#51 wjp, i agree with your observations. peter wiener is really peter WHINER! make a comment and he will personally critique it in a negative fashion, especially if he believes, the opinion is invalid and unwarranted.
all this negativity shows that he has a security complex which he has difficulty in dealing with.
all of us on this blog will give him assistance.

i hope he sticks around, he is somewhat of a good writer.in the future, im hoping he will provide us with some insight.

#69 Samantha on 07.02.09 at 6:04 pm

#59 homeBOY

Wow! Good for you!

Like you I don’t rent, however, I’m afraid that is where our similarity ends.

I have bought and sold other homes and rented in between those times.

Here’s a suggestion for you:

Learn some history and while you’re at it, learn some humility. Oh, let’s be generous with your development and throw in some learning of manners and class as well.

The winds of fortune can change many times during your life, and quite unexpectedly.

May you live in interesting times.

#70 Nostradamus Le Mad Vlad on 07.02.09 at 6:31 pm

I have mentioned how the elite want to control the ‘net, so an article from today, plus the comment from wrh.com, along with the first para. is quite revealing. — http://tinyurl.com/m4wlbk

“Famous and respected New York Judge Richard Posner says maybe we should ban links to save newspapers.”

Webmaster’s Commentary: “This will backfire. The blogs are driving most of what little readership the newspapers have left. In the age of twitter, the blogs are quite capable of reporting and commenting on what is going on around the world.

“And frankly, the blogs would not be such a threat to the newspapers IF THE NEWSPAPERS WOULD STOP LYING TO THE PEOPLE!”
——
Canada Day with Captain Kirk, a little older and wiser now! — http://tinyurl.com/lxqjtf

The two flights which crashed into the sea (there may be more in the future); they were not shot down, so what was the reason — forthcoming pole shifts, which none can control or . . . — http://tinyurl.com/koh593
——
Is life really fair? Ask Bernie Madoff! — http://tinyurl.com/lg34v3
——
Anyone remember that Paulson and Carney worked together at Goldman Sachs, and are now in charge of their respective countries’ books?

Seems GS is playing major roles in different aspects of life, so I guess they have profited the most from the downturns they have been involved in. — http://tinyurl.com/kkapu5

I guess this, although slightly different leads to the same result. No links, type only. (Unemployment in the US at a possible 18.7%.)

“The numbers are staggering and are aggregates of official data. They matter because various Obama administration officials including the President himself started off calling for huge stimulus packages to help generate “jobs, jobs, jobs!”

“But now, I have been hearing more and more from senior Obama economic team members about the jobs they hoped for coming at the very tail end of an economic recovery. Others are talking about a GDP recovery — but not a jobs recovery. They are admitting as well that they underestimated the severity of this recession and its impact on unemployment levels.

“And all this while Goldman Sachs and other financial houses have seen their balance sheets get cleaned up and bonuses surge.” — AND —

“The eurozone unemployment rate climbed to a 10-year high of 9.5 percent in May, official European Union data shows. Some 273,000 people lost their jobs across the eurozone in May, bringing the number of out of work individuals to 15.013 million — a rate not recorded since May 1999.”

Webmaster’s Commentary: “This is why globalism is such a bad idea. An economic calamity in the US has become a crisis for the entire world!”

#71 pjwlk on 07.02.09 at 6:36 pm

#59 homeboy:

I guess your banjo’s fully paid for too… LOL

#72 ally ally oxycontin free on 07.02.09 at 6:54 pm

#64 lgre on 07.02.09 at 5:42 pm

just look at GS stock..its up in the heavens while every other bank is struggling…..makes you wonder..the corruption is slapping everyone in the face and the majority is still looking the other way.

Irrational exuberance? When economists are now speculating we won’t be ‘out of the woods’ until ’14 or ’15, it makes you wonder what is driving the market.

#73 Peter Wiener on 07.02.09 at 7:38 pm

re # 51 wjp

With all due respect to you and your opinions, I don’t reside in Ontario nor have any interest in defending it. I deal in facts, not wishfull thinking – check out the history of ex-Olympic hosts and the RE aftermath post Olympics ( I experienced the Barcelona bust vicariously thru friends who bought after the Olympics when pricesd dropped as much as 60% on some developments). As to what you might contstrue as a borderline ‘ad hominem’ attack, perhaps you are new around here, but ole Nosti has exhibited some degree of each vice / shortcoming I charge him with at some time on this blog.

Futhermore, Garth Turner, in my opinion runs a pretty balanced blog given the diversity of its contributors and given that diversity we should just be sensitive to others backgrounds who read the blog. There is simply no place for hurtful and willfull ignorance and we should censor its appearance here or at least challenge it. If I was a little forceful in that pursuit in order to get your attention, next time I promise I’ll wordsmith it a little better so as to not affront your tender sensibilities.

Wiener out.

#74 Bottoms_Up on 07.02.09 at 7:43 pm

.#59 homeboy on 07.02.09 at 4:19 pm
—————————————————-
It’s clear you don’t remember the housing crash in Canada in the early ’80’s. Ask your parents about it. Good for you for getting lucky in real estate–historically, real estate is a ‘forced savings’ type of investment, whereby you only get out what you put in (look to the past to understand the future). Good luck.

#75 Peter Wiener on 07.02.09 at 7:54 pm

to #59 homeboy

Yeah hotshot, see you in a year or two and see how you are doin’!

Shoot, why don’t you go and take out a mortgage on that almost paid off home and buy another, or better yet, buy two , three more? You are what, 29 years old?
Think of all the money those houses will be worth when you are 35, 40, 50 years old!!!!! C’mon, leverage away!! Real estate only goes up! Renters are pathetic!

Like I said, hotshot, check back with us in a couple of years. By the way, don’t get any more smug and do something stupid like buy another house, buy a rental property or take out a LOC and buy a bunch of expensive toys … ah, but you’re too smart for that aren’t you – regular genius! Or better yet, please do!

Man its gonna be funny to me when all this equity and its attendant smugness disappears. I guarantee you “homeboy” won’t be posting!

Bwahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!!!!

#76 GenXersinSask on 07.02.09 at 8:01 pm

That listing is ridiculous! One borrows all that money from the bank…then the seller “gives” it back to you. Duh. It’s your own borrowed money to begin with! Crazy.

#77 Peter Wiener on 07.02.09 at 8:49 pm

re #68 molson cdn

Hey man, are you , like, a psychiatrist or a psychologist or a M.A. in behavioural science or something? Wow, normally a guy’d have to pay , what $150 to $200 an hour for many hours to get such a professional opinion (on someone they know absolutely nothing about).

Why wouldn’t I “..critique it in a negative fashion, especially if he believes the opinion is invalid or unwarranted.”? Do you ever read what you have written before you post – do so in future or risk looking even more insipid than you do now.

The only intelligent and intelligible part of your pathetic scribbling is the last paragraph. Go back to school you monkey or develolp some balls and intellect. I fear your skirt is just a little too tight (applies to whichever sex you are, but I hope you are a guy, cause if you were you’d probably have panties on as well!)

As to receiving help from the blog participants such as yourself, perhaps if I ever (seriously doubtful) require the help of such a judgemental person as yourself, I think I might approach Kim Jong Il before the snivelling likes of yourself.

Disclaimer:

GET REAL, ‘molson cdn’ and others here, I’ve been having fun getting you and other lesser lights on this site po’d, but its so damn easy now that it is not fun anymore. I intend to stick to pointing out errors in a factual and non-pejorative way from here on in , but I reserve the right to blast an obvious and odious contributor the likes of ‘homeboy’ should they rear their “ugly head” in such a wanton manner for my scythe of reality (with its steely blade sharpened by precedence and honed by fact) to remove!

#78 c9 renter on 07.02.09 at 9:25 pm

Peter Weener, you are a fool

You know nothing about the anonymous bloggers you attack, yet you assume they are all efeminate, liberal, uneducated and beneath you in all ways.

What a weener!

Not sure what you’re compensating for, but it must really be eating at you.

Anyways, I intend to skip your posts going forward

#79 MenWithHats on 07.02.09 at 10:03 pm

#59 homeboy on 07.02.09 at 4:19 pm

Must be a full moon .The lunatics are everywhere .

#80 Dan in Victoria on 07.02.09 at 10:46 pm

Post#59 Homeboy,put your ball cap on the right way around,you have too much pressure on your prefrontal cortex.

#81 Peter Wiener on 07.03.09 at 1:08 am

re # 78 C9 renter

I’m absolutely heartbroken and devastated that you won’t be reading my posts and more’s the pity, you won’t be commenting on them either.

Well once in a while I’m sure you won’t be able to resist the other sleazy thrill you get late at night (guess I was right about your poor luck with the ladies) and you’ll get up the nerve to attack the evil Wiener with your ‘ad hominem’ attacks once again. Guess you need to get off somehow pantywaist.

Boy, I’d hate to meet you in a dark alley c9, with you on your knees and all ready to s……

Hahahahahahaha you’re the fool dear (and I think dear is so appropos for your sensitive side) boy. Stop and think about how easy it is for a complete stranger like me to get under your skin.

I really hope for your sake that you are in no way any dumber than you seem.

#82 OMG Another One on 07.03.09 at 1:49 am

Peter Wiener – What an arrogant ass

#83 Peter Wiener on 07.03.09 at 4:35 pm

to # 82 OMG Another One

C’mon “OMG Another A-hole” , don’t sugar coat it, tell me what you really think about me!

Or rather don’t. You are such an original and creative writer to come up with “What an arrogant ass” that I don’t think I could withstand you withering attacks ( lol!!!!!!)

What are you – an eight year old in a school playground? The best you can do is provide a one line non-sentence? Guess you really are a schoolkid – adults debate facts and issues, they don’t resort to name calling.

When you’ve something to add to the discussion and you feel brave enough, try and engage me – or is the little anonymous sissy ” OMG Another A-hole” incapable.

I thought so, loser.

Attack the argument, not the man. Or, your comment will not be approved. — Garth

#84 Peter Wiener on 07.03.09 at 4:59 pm

# 83 Peter Wiener

Hey Garth, that is what I was trying to point out. If there is a RE issue, let’s debate it – that is what I am here for certainly (and a little fun).

I, nor any other contributor should be up for discussion, let alone derision. I ask that posters stick to commenting on my RE arguments and my presentation of facts as I have stated that I will do in future with all other posters. If you are at odds with my case or facts, try taking a little time and write a proper factual rebuttal, not an emotional diatribe evidencing your shortcomings in manners and thought.

I have no interest in participating in the education of those that feel they have nothing to learn from this blog’s collective intelligence.

#85 jess tree on 07.03.09 at 5:32 pm

what is driving the market…. the almighty dollar

#86 Vancouver_bear on 07.03.09 at 6:39 pm

.#37 Nostradamus jr. on 07.02.09 at 10:26 am

Asia’s, California’s and Eastern North American’s wealthy are relocating to Vancouver…The North Shore will be considered the elite of the elite locations soon after the Olympics brings this fact to light.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I suspect our Nostri is client of this organization – http://www.cmha.ca/bins/index.asp

Note that their office is in the elite of elite location:

North and West Vancouver Branch
Suite 211- 260 West Esplanade
North Vancouver, BC V7M 3G7

#87 Cert Bhapman on 07.05.09 at 3:00 pm

http://www.nickles.com/rig/

This is about the only economic indicator I go by in Alberta. These young rig workers working 16 hour days for 8 months have been running the economy here. If they are not spending it will hit the fan.