The spoiler

drummond1

Some time ago I told you the faintest signs of economic growth would result in higher interest rates and rising oil prices. This week mortgage rates went up at all the big banks, and oil snaked to $70 a barrel.

Higher oil and a decline in the US dollar are also goosing the loonie in a spectacular fashion. Our currency has again achieved 90 cents US, and that is about the worst news possible for the beleaguered manufacturing and exporting sectors.

Nonetheless, get used to it. And expect the prime rate to double within a year, along with $100 oil and a dollar at par. For consumers and real estate investors, this means less affordability, soaring energy bills and dropping home sales.

As I have argued here in recent days, this will make very great fools of the people now in the grasp of a homebuying frenzy which this week sent Toronto Real Estate Board numbers soaring. Memo to realtors: No long-term Porsche leases.

But there’s more.

Any doubt we’re on the cusp of a big, well-haired dilemma was just erased by Don Drummond. Easily, he is Canada’s most respected and trusted economist, former deputy minister of the federal finance department and now occupant of the corner glass office in the TD Tower. I know this guy. He is so authentic an economist he wears check shirts with striped ties. I think I even saw scotch tape on his glasses one day.

Months ago, when the finance minister was unveiling his January budget, forecasting a $30 billion deficit – shocking at the time – and swearing Canada would be back in the black in four years, Drummond smelled a rat. It will be more, he said. The assumptions are wrong.

Days ago, Jim Flaherty relented and revealed the budget will be “more than $50 billion,” while at the same time calling it “temporary.” More rat talk. And this week Drummond issued a report confirming what some of the consequences will be of desperate acts like handing $10 billion to bankrupt car companies. Said he,

* We will be in deficit for at least six years, and possibly far longer
* Over the next 72 months, Ottawa will spend at least $170 billion more than it takes in.
* All debt reduction efforts of the last 15 years – financed by the GST you paid – will be wiped out by the current Harper administration.
* The national debt is growing fast again, and will hit $600 billion for the first time, in two years.

If you think this is just Ottawa’s problem, think again.

As I have said too many times, the three consequences of this will be higher taxes, higher inflation and higher interest rates. With Ottawa borrowing $1 billion a week, this puts pressure on the bond markets and guarantees a run-up in the cost of mortgages, LOCs and business loans. The implications for the housing market – where prices have still not corrected enough to sustain enduring sales – should be obvious.

It’s also a no-brainer that we’re looking at a decade in which income taxes will not fall, sales taxes will probably rise, the fabled capital gains tax cut will never happen and government spending has to be slashed. At the same time, higher rates, gas prices and taxes are all inflationary, and yet negative for business investment and job recovery.

So, the bottom line seems fairly predictable: A jobless recovery in which family disposable incomes fall.

Is there no good news?

Maybe a little. At least for Jim Flaherty. His wife’s on track to become Ontario’s new Conservative leader, then maybe premier.

It’s just weird how things work out.

105 comments ↓

#1 Investor on 06.02.09 at 10:29 pm

Car sales timber.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN026834320090602?rpc=44

#2 WillsDad on 06.02.09 at 10:29 pm

Edit: $170 BILLION (not $170)

#3 Calgary_rip_off on 06.02.09 at 10:32 pm

That’s great news Garth!!!

What person wouldnt want a lower principal of a house price with sky high interest rates? Only a fool. Here in Calgary some people want these ridiculously high principals on homes with the view that interest rates will remain low. I hope the rates skyrocket to 12%. That will spell death for all the realtors and slimy people that invested in houses only as an investment. It will absolutely crush this $400K median as it stands. I would imagine if interest rates go this high $200K will be again the median. Some could argue that $200K with 12% your payments will be the same-but aha, here’s the difference: You can pay more in less time and, if interests rates drop again your payment drops dramatically. In any case it gives many hardworking individuals and families across Canada the privilege of stopping being serfs to pompous owners who happened to have time on their side initially when they bought. In many cases these owners who rent out their properties rent it out to more educated, higher earning and higher profile individuals than themselves. Seems like the person who earns more and works harder is entitled to more right? It doesnt always work that way, as conservatives like to enforce their own case of socialism, status quo if you will. I call it fascism at best, the evil right wingers at worst.

Any inside info you have on crushing interest rates is appreciated. Be sure to forward the above post to Bob Truman and Mario T(at the Herald) here in Calgary so they can start to incite a panic among the ignorant sellers and realtors here.

#4 Barb the proof reader on 06.02.09 at 10:35 pm

Is there no good news?

Here Garth, here’s some good news: Lisa Raitt could lose her job.

And add to your list that the Cons as usual hid some big money from the budget, amongst other interesting tidbits:

Lisa Raitt’s sensitive government paper’s marked “secret” were left behind at a CTV News bureau by either Minister of Natural Resources or her aides
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090602/raitt_documents_090602/20090602?hub=TopStories

Even better…. they reveal lots of stuff, including hand written ‘how to’ of their deceit. Hilariously stupid yet dangerous people we have in charge.

#5 Mike B on 06.02.09 at 10:44 pm

I suspect that any slight rise in mortgage rates will likely push UP the pace of whacko buyers to buy their first time home or trophy house. Only serious economic mishaps, like those that occured in Sept/Oct 2008, will cool off the prebubescent (sp?) anxiety happening in the Toronto market. That, even Garth admits, is unlikely to happen.
Cash buyers may fair ok but buyers are expecting big numbers and some buyers are more than happy to caputulate.

#6 Da HK Kid on 06.02.09 at 11:20 pm

Canada only has exports to rely on! What happens when the CAD goes par with USD and 90% of GDP is exports!

World of hurt! Better start looking for newer export partners but wait, anyone close enough is in the same boat!

I’m waiting for China to Buy Cali before the year end!

#7 Aizlynne on 06.02.09 at 11:27 pm

Barb … the majority of politicians are hilariously stupid and dangerous …. right Garth?

#8 Garth Vader on 06.02.09 at 11:42 pm

“Methuselah lived to be 969 years old . You boys and girls will see more in the next fifty years than Methuselah saw in his whole lifetime.”

Thomas Tusser

OK, OK he wrote this about 450 years ago but it is more fitting with the post industrial age.

#9 Grumpydawgs on 06.02.09 at 11:48 pm

I talked to a branch banker friend today and the news was that credit card debt and petty fraudsters are growing exponentially. Cheque kiting is big big big. It seems no one has any folding money anymore.

Interest rates have gone up, thanks for pointing that out. I am on the opposite side of the argument and look forward to higher rates. The higher the better.

#10 calgaryrenter2 on 06.02.09 at 11:50 pm

#3 Calgary_rip_off

I question if the house prices in Calgary will come down if oil and GAS (more important to Alberta) prices go up.

high price of oil and gas = Demand for industry = people shortage = salaries go up to attract top talent or warm bodies = more crazy spending on over priced homes.

hard to say what will have a larger impact on Calgary home prices….. High oil and gas price or high interest rates.

#11 LS on 06.02.09 at 11:54 pm

Meanwhile, on our sunny west coast, real estate is going up like crazy again. In Victoria there were more sales in May than in April, and more sales than in May 2008 as well! Also prices are rapidly erasing the losses of the fall (which wasn’t much to start with), and getting closer to where we were at the peak a year ago.

Sure enough, the media has been all over it, triumphantly announcing that “Victoria real estate turns around” (http://www.timescolonist.com/Business/Victoria+real+estate+turns+around/1654119/story.html)

My favourite quote? “I think this shows you Victoria is insulated and always has been,”

Grrr..

#12 Basil Fawlty on 06.03.09 at 12:13 am

So, let’s do the math; $170B in deficits over 72 months equals $34B per year. The current deficit has gone from zero to $50B in 7 months, which equates to $85B over 12 months. Interestingly, this $85B is one half of the $170B estimated over 5 years. Let’s try multiplying $85B by 5yrs, suffering sheep dip, the answer is $425B.
I’m going back into the bunker of eternal doom, obviously there is something seriously wrong with the calculator.

#13 nonplused on 06.03.09 at 12:24 am

Is Flagerty’s wife hot like that French guy Sarcosy or however you spell it? I plead spelling amnesty. And hubba-hubba!

I don’t know why everyone is blaming a minority government that takes its orders from Washington (like all Canadian governments since the Second World War, see Avro Arrow). The next government will do the same and worse.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avro_Arrow

Side rant: We would still be building and flying variants of this plane now and they would serve as well as anything once fitted with more fuel efficient motors and modern computer systems. I can’t believe we bailed on this for the series of F104, Lawn Darts (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CF-116_Freedom_Fighter) , and F18’s we ended up buying, all ultimately inferior and more expensive. Plus 50,000 jobs state side.

You should build your army at home unless you really don’t have the technical expertise. Maybe we can take our 12% ownership in GM and build some Hummers that don’t self destruct when they get hit by a pipe bomb?

#14 hobbygirl on 06.03.09 at 12:44 am

We are witnessing the destruction of the middle class. The gov’t is shooting itself in the foot as rich nor poor pay any taxes.

In support of Barb the Proof Reader, there is nothing more dangerous than a stupid person with a big mouth and an audience. Seeing how Harper works, Raitt will get fingered and corrupt life goes on as usual.

Be prepared for more ‘Ignatieff is a very bad man’ crap ads.

#15 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 06.03.09 at 1:17 am

“. . . smelled a rat. It will be more, he said. The assumptions are wrong.”

A lot of Cdns. would have figured Harper and Flaherty out from the IT lie, lowering the GST instead of leaving, or raising it to get more daily income flowing in and their idea of a ‘dysfunctional govt.’

But Harper called a false spot election, loaded Quebec up with goodies and received a further 19 seats, dropping La Belle Provence ASAP. So much for loyalty.

“. . . wiped out by the current Harper administration. . . . higher taxes, higher inflation and higher interest rates. . . . gas prices and taxes are all inflationary, . . .”

Figured that with all this stuff being thrown at us left, right and centre, I would finish the night by recalling a line from the album “Frank Zappa and The Mothers Of Invention — Fillmore East, June 1971”. An apt way to wrap things up! So . . .

“. . . take me, I’m yours you whore; fulfill me with your wildest desires . . .” — We’re as close as dammit to selling ourselves for food!
——
A nuke a day helps you work, rest and play! — http://tinyurl.com/pesvmk — He may be forecasting that something could happen very shortly.
——
Two links. It’s June now, so this notice is for September. Part of one sentence from the first link follows. — http://tinyurl.com/oss5nw

“The Rothschild family has have been closely associated with the Zionist Movement. . . .”

Quarterly US$1 trillion monetization. — http://tinyurl.com/p7uble
——
Wait iin line for your bailout, puhleeze! — http://tinyurl.com/po9ceo

#16 Munch on 06.03.09 at 1:17 am

BWAhahahahaha

Brilliant, Garth!

I am glad to see that supidity is not confined to tin pot dictatorships in Africa – the madness of herds, eh?

Personally, I am expecting “them” to roll out a massive diversion soon – terrorism or war, or such like. Can’t be far away now!

Regards to all

Munch

#17 Happy Renter in North Van on 06.03.09 at 3:50 am

I’d like to know why the silent majority of Canadians who intensely disapprove the Canadian government’s bailout $10 Billion bailout of GM and Chrysler aren’t being represented… If I wanted to vote NDP in the last election, I would have done exactly that…
Even the Swedish government had the courage to say no to a Saab bailout…
Contrary to the Conservatives’ beliefs, Canada does have a thriving auto manufacturing sector… It’s called Honda, Nissan and CAMI.

Just wait until the next election when every fishery, forestry and every other “hard-done-by” industry employee says “Why bailouts for fat-cat auto employees, and not us?”… The Conservatives are done like the turkey at Thanksgiving… Goodbye Charlie Brown…

#18 Sean in E-Town on 06.03.09 at 4:05 am

Garth: There is a certain symmetry in following up a 52 year old with zero net worth and 24K in student loans, earning in the low thirties with someone else earning in the low thirties with 20K Net Worth, closing out his 25th year, and same income.

God Bless Don Drummond, and Economy bless me with fifteen-two cash, three-five in family loans secured by a two-hundred-oops-one-forty grand condo, and another grand in bills, soon to be fifteen at the end of my lease, as I approach prime buying or maybe renting for another year if these smucks don’t want to be liquid, and instead liquidated… time.

I’m putting in an offer in two weeks on a place in Edmonton, usually rents for 750, with a fairly incompetent management company so write it down to 700 for good measure, maybe 680, since that gives us a fat, round, number, especially since I’ll have to be involved on the board if things don’t improve. Rent – Condo Fees is 500/month then. Down from the hyper optimistic 570, you think? I think that’s 14% air at least. They’re asking a shade under a hundred, I’ll offer a shade under eighty. They’ll laugh at me, I’ll turn their $90 + K counter-offer down and I’ll feel better about prices next year.

So, I know you think we would all be better off renting and piling up a photo album of dead prime-ministers, and I’m inclined to agree, but could, for the next five years, housing be my income trust? Where the low interest rates give me cheap implicit rental income while the capital value shrinks? If we’re in a deflationary environment, I should be unconcerned about the nominal value of a unit and more of what that unit will buy in terms of garbanzo beans, potatoes, movie tickets, bus passes, and t-bone steaks.

If the bottom-end market lost 20K, would it be a bad idea to pay a 5% premium on that 80K (84K for those of you without calculators) And enjoy the benefits of 4.5% money for five years? If income goes south, and I mean taking home a grand a month and turned down at the foodbank south… I can still pay my mortgage, condo fees, property taxes, etc. for fifty bucks less than rent, with enough equity and savings to swallow an 4,500 loss on my property, less commissions of 7K, and escape for slightly less than five year’s rent, assuming no inflation. (Which I maintain is awfully generous on the low-side in five years’ time. I’ve never earned that little in my adult life, even in the year I was unemployed for a quarter of the year.)

So here I am, no obvious illiquid, mortgaged up to my eyeballs “Gee, should I get into debt up to my hairline, or de-leverage?” case, but instead, a comfortable, if burnt out, red tory economist-cum-blackjack dealer from the economic hinterland, ready to plunk down about three year’s income on a place because I begin to believe in the cruel stickiness of rents in this city.

Now the case is not so clear, is it, Garth? The GM dealership closing isn’t the death knell for my big city, and the rents have a long series of beatings to take to fall back to earth, and I can only buy 5 grand worth of bank preferred stock tax free, and would have bought into a 40 unit building about to redo its angled roof that I would lobby to get re-shingled with solar.

Forgive this trailing-edge Gen-Xer following the trailing-edge boomer’s pop-culture reference with one of my own, but: “Pop Quiz hotshot: What do you do? What. Do. You. Do?”

#19 Darryl on 06.03.09 at 5:51 am

#4 Barb the proof reader

Sounds like the report was planted .

#20 David Bakody on 06.03.09 at 6:02 am

Maybe a little. At least for Jim Flaherty. His wife’s on track to become Ontario’s new Conservative leader, then maybe premier.

Then my beloved home province will then once again become Canada’s Steam Engine?

#21 wowwowie on 06.03.09 at 6:06 am

So Garth, what will happen to our stock market rally? Is it time to take profit before it falls back again to the March low level?

#22 Canadian Army Guy on 06.03.09 at 6:06 am

Calgary Rip-off said:
“I hope the rates skyrocket to 12%. ”

How bitter are you? Wow. Seems that you were priced out!

In the time being, maybe some big banks have set their mtg rates higher (which is very stupid) but some other banks, such as PC Financial, have reduced some of their rates. A 5 year closed is set at 3.74% while a variable 5 year is a 2.85%

Garth, why do you tell us to get used to high oil prices when you said the same last summer before prices crashed to $30 a barrel. You were wrong then.
Nobody’s perfect and you are not either. Supply and demand… My case here is that when we have reached your preferred scenario – when we all eat squirrel and racoon meat while living in a shed in Northern Ontario, well, demand for oil would be low, no?
You’re all over the place with your book promoting blog. Try tennis, that’s a great pasttime, Garth.

You make me laugh; this economic slowdown is global. GLOBAL. But you, Garth Turner, are still bitter at the conservative party and you now use this blog to tell the world that the current situation is a conservative one. The liberals or the NDP, if they were to be in power would fare no better.
And don’t forget; another point in which people have a short memory: everybody was on board for the Obamamania train. Everybody loved him. He was the solution to the whole world’s problems. Now that he is running the USA into the ground, no one loves him anymore.
See my point?

#23 David Bakody on 06.03.09 at 6:18 am

#4 Barb the proof reader on 06.02.09 at 10:35 pm

Not a chance Barb ……. not a snowballs chance in a hell …..remember who’s seat she won? …. the fall guy is already in place or Harper will just ignore it like everything else ….. everything else of course is called Canada, in King Harper’s world of “I and me first” !

Thanks again Garth for a clear concise overview. Boys oh boys did the people of Halton ever loose but their lose has been a financial gain for not only Canadians but the world who have headed your sound advice …. for the MSM I ask why have y’all not passed this on, just think of all the family hardships you could have saved, sadly now you can write about financial disaster and the homeless and make excuses.

Alberta wanted in and have been for past 3-4 years and look where we all are.

#24 wjp on 06.03.09 at 6:31 am

Canadian Army Guy…#8
I guess you are okay with the present government going from a projected deficit of 30 billion then a couple of months later annoucing “whoops it is 50 +” and now we find it could be about 170 + and the debt in 5 years will be over 600 billion? What about the truth from this government, they touted Don Drummond when they were campaigning, I don’t see them embracing his projections now! And the way they are spending, they have wiped the name “Conservative” right off the map.
It is a NDP government in sheep’s clothing.
As for Garth being bitter, wouldn’t you be? Does he not have the right to put his constituents before the party? Or do you subscribe to the party first? (a la former Soviet Union)

#25 Mike (Authentic) on 06.03.09 at 6:48 am

I welcome the “Return of Traditional Banking” when one had to PROVE income, PROVE they had a good steady job and PROVE they had a sizable down payment of 20% or more.

Cheap money is like a cheap sugar rush, it’s fun at the start but then you get a real ill feeling at the end.

“The national debt is growing fast again, and will hit $600 billion for the first time, in two years”

Every Canadian will have to pay for the debt, don’t like it, vote in a party that does what you would like them to do.

I’m in favour of increased mortgage rates as well, it will bring the prices of homes down to historic levels and make people SAVE for change on a larger down payment.

Mike

#26 hagbard on 06.03.09 at 7:46 am

Thought some of you might enjoy this quote from Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged:

“Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked, ‘Account overdrawn.’”

#27 john m on 06.03.09 at 8:03 am

Our wonderful leaders have opened a can of worms with their bailouts.If they had said no right from the get-go and concentrated on running the country (what they are there for) not getting involved in failing private enterprise.People would have understood,after all who really expected we the taxpayers would be on the hook for GM etc…at the expense of our health care etc. Well its too late now,resentment is building (i hear it more and more every day).Tough times are ahead and as they get worse (and i think they will) more people are going to be asking for assistance…i think they will borrow and drive us deeper in debt than anything predicted so far. GM’s million dollar per man bailout set a hell of a president. As more people lose everything unrest will follow.Our government played a very dangerous political game …now how do they get out of it??—the fact is they can’t! True leadership is saying no when it benefits all the people.Our present government has done more to destroy confidence and our standard of living than anything in my lifetime-IMO. There is no way the Government is going to come out of this smiling–they have destroyed their future and ours as well.We desperately need a change……… sadly though it will take generations to recover from this incompetence,dishonesty and lack of true leadership.

#28 lgre on 06.03.09 at 8:03 am

“In the time being, maybe some big banks have set their mtg rates higher (which is very stupid)”

army dude, there is nothing stupid about rates being higher..the current low rates are doing nothing but inflating bubbles even more. higher rates will bring out the people that can ACTUALLY afford to buy something, and the ones relying on FREE money back in their bunkers..ju got it?

#29 Happyplace on 06.03.09 at 8:21 am

Hobbygirl – Many of Stephen Harper’s decisions of late have been made because the Three Stooges have his back to the wall. I would hardly characterize Ignatieff as a ‘leader’ in any sense of the word. He is merely a power-hungry opportunist.

#30 smw on 06.03.09 at 8:24 am

#10

Timbo said it best yesterday, “less for more”.

Less demand means fewer jobs, more competition for labour means lower wages.

That’s why central banks are trying to to inflate at any cost.

As for Drummond, he was one of the first to call a spade a spade, but he still showed up to the party late. Also good to see Rubin give up his career as a talking head and face our current reality. I heard him on CFRA the other day and he seems to be telling a simalar tale to the one Garth is.

You guys do most your writing at the same starbucks Garth?

#31 wayupnorth on 06.03.09 at 8:37 am

Governments always undrestimate deficets because it is easy to calculate the spending side of the books but they always forget that the income side is going to go down much faster than they think.

This is because the two largest sources of tax revenue are income tax and tax on business profits. If unemployment increases are in the top half of incomes like we have now then income tax revenues fall much faster than predicted. if sales and more importantly profits drop off then businesses will end up paying little or no tax at all just like we have now.

A billion here, a billion there and a shortfall soon adds up and exposes just how incompetent a finance minister can be. Question is how can we have someone as our federal finance minister who has a proven track record of incompetence in calculating budgets? That says a lot about how competent our prime minister is when he could have chosen anyone else in his cabinet that might have proved honest enough to see all sides of the issue before making an realistic budget prediction.

#32 CalgaryRocks on 06.03.09 at 8:46 am

#23 David Bakody on 06.03.09 at 6:18 am #4 Barb the proof reader on 06.02.09 at 10:35 pm

Alberta wanted in and have been for past 3-4 years and look where we all are.

No kidding, I can’t believe we’re still bailing out that stupid province again! We should just let it crumble under it’s own weight. Oh wait, that’s Ontario. Nevermind.

#33 CalgaryRocks on 06.03.09 at 8:50 am

#24 CalgaryRocks on 06.03.09 at 8:46 am #23 David Bakody on 06.03.09 at 6:18 am #4 Barb the proof reader on 06.02.09 at 10:35 pm

Alberta wanted in and have been for past 3-4 years and look where we all are.

Isn’t it strange that when someone in the oil sands loses his job, that’s just the free market, but when some union hypocrite that works from GM loses his… well, we can’t have that! Here’s a billion buddy!

#34 My_View on 06.03.09 at 8:57 am

It was never deflation, the Government running a defecit, who didnt see that coming? Raise the GST back to 7%. Instead you have the opposition parties demanding longer EI benefits, that will solve everything. How about variable or fixed? 5 yr 3.5% was sweet while it lasted.

#35 ts harpoon on 06.03.09 at 9:10 am

Is there no good news? Short Answer: NO

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE54S53620090529?sp=true

Keep us informed Garth Turner. No one else seems to.

#36 Outlaw on 06.03.09 at 9:11 am

Garth,

When 2 month ago I was advising people to take on a fixed mortgage instead of a variable one, you found it extremely humourous. As you have just stated, mortgages are going up, rates are going up, inflation is already on the horizon. Whoever is reading this, if you have a mortgage that you cant pay right off when time comes, please do yourselves a favour and lock in while you still can get a decent rate.

Outlaw

#37 tjmikey on 06.03.09 at 9:47 am

#10 Calgaryrenter2

The Alberta O&G industry has a long history of backing off and licking wounds.

Even if oil prices start to go north, the price per barrel will have to hold steady for some time before they will jump back in and spend the big exploration and downstream bucks. What typically happens is that as prices increase and hold, the larger players will start buying up fixed and producing assets via juniors to increase and stabalise cash flow.

I would also have to think that any move forward in terms of capital spending would come from cash reserves and not bank financing. Regardless of what line of rhetoric the banks are shovelling….THEY ARE NOT LENDING.

Remember, unless the asset is fixed and producing the play is based on speculation. In a volitile market high cost speculation is avoided at all costs.

As for interest rates it’s pretty obvious that they can only move in one direction.

Alberta real estate will continue to slide as will rents as spending continues to wind down.

I would guess that RE has another 25% or more to go to hit bottom and it may keep going. Inventories versus demand are way out of wack.

#38 pbrasseur on 06.03.09 at 10:00 am

I agree the federal government deficit predictions are hysterically optimistic, unless of course they cut transfers to unload everything (as they did before) on the provinces which are already doing just as bad.

Because the federal debt is only half the story, in a distributed federation like Canada we must also look at the provinces and they are struggling, doing worse in fact because they must manage the ever rising cost of health care in the midst of rapid aging of the population. Health care is the weakest link of the Canadian nanny state, costs are exploding despite rationing and decaying services, this tendency is just going to accelerate.

It’s not a question of ideology, the numbers simply don’t add up and this is going to break soon or later, rising taxes just won’t do it (and may even make things worse by threatening growth).

#39 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 06.03.09 at 10:21 am

#4 Barb the proof reader

No real surpise there. I am sure Garth could add much, much more about Ms. Deception?

Thanks for the link. I must admit I was surprised that CTV made the disclosure. They have been such ardent Harper supporters.

Who knows, maybe Garth will run in the next election, but I surely would not blame him for not doing so. I have thought about running myself, but decided I would only face the same things Garth has, and to be honest, I do not need the stress.

The system is totally BROKEN! We are running a Humpty Dumpty government using Wimpy Economics, and the upper tier outhouse is still ‘trickling down’ its nefarious ‘benefits’ just as is expected per Reagonmics. Another extinct ‘theory’ brought forth by out of date thinking by people living in a past time without reality penetrating their so-called minds.

#40 905er & Spouse on 06.03.09 at 10:26 am

#11 LS-
Yup, it’s different there in Victoria! Lol!

#41 Opportunity on 06.03.09 at 10:47 am

It looks like your replacement in Halton has certainly made an impact in her short time in Ottawa. Secret paers in a news office. There may be a by election in Halton again.

#42 hobbygirl on 06.03.09 at 11:17 am

I just heard that the gov’t took the ‘secret’ docs back in a photo op. Shouldn’t the mounties be picking them up and dealing with them? Something this serious should be handled through proper channels. Mounties do your job!

Regardless if it was stupidity or intentionally planned, it proves we don’t have a government fit to lead us. We all deserve better than games and/or incompetence.

#43 john m on 06.03.09 at 11:23 am

#29 Happyplace on 06.03.09 at 8:21 am

Hobbygirl – Many of Stephen Harper’s decisions of late have been made because the Three Stooges have his back to the wall. I would hardly characterize Ignatieff as a ‘leader’ in any sense of the word. He is merely a power-hungry opportunist.
———–No Excuses!..true leadership is not influenced by political motivation–its too late for that crap our whole standard of living and generations to come is at stake–Harper’s at the helm and he’s nothing but a “deckhand”

#44 Munch on 06.03.09 at 11:28 am

Sigh!

The more things change, the more they remain the same!

Same day, different spin!

Here I sit in the Ship of Fools!

My President (Zuma) tells me today that “we are well prepared for the financial crisis” – I can’t say he’s lying because I think, I really do, that he believes it!

O woe is Us!

#45 Flip on 06.03.09 at 11:31 am

Hi Garth

Wow – quite the written statement: “expect the prime rate to double within a year”

I’m waiting to hear you say: Lock in your mortgage rate – it’s going to be a doozey…
You can still get 10 years fixed at 5.25%… is now the time then?

#46 tjmikey on 06.03.09 at 11:35 am

I’m bumping up Garth’s Depression O meter to 30%.

Someone has to take the printing press out of the hands of Obama. The USA is turning into one great big Ponzi.

In order to lend they have to borrow. In order to pay back the borrowed funds they have to borrow more.

Rob Peter to pay Paul.

You know what……I’m going to go to 40% on the depression O meter.

The sad thing is, a depression may just be the medicine required to put this to bed. It may be the only true fix.

#47 David Bakody on 06.03.09 at 11:44 am

#33 CalgaryRocks on 06.03.09 at 8:50 am

Not to be unkind Sir/Madame but your Alberta boys and girls let by Harper signed off on that bailout money and Sir/Madame they have funneled more money under the table to Quebec than Chretien ever did. In record breaking time!

#48 VOODOO on 06.03.09 at 12:17 pm

Garth thanks for adding context to Mr. Drummond’s comments/analysis.
—————————————————–

#3 Calgary_rip_off on 06.02.09 at 10:32 pm:

“..In many cases these owners who rent out their properties rent it out to more educated, higher earning and higher profile individuals than themselves.”
—————————————————
My life experience supports this comment (other than the ‘higher earning’ part). When I was attending Queen’s University my landlord was a dope-smoking convict whom we actually didn’t see for several months because he was put in jail. Also, I have a buddy who dropped out of university, bought two houses with the help of his dad (in 2002/3), and has made a KILLING with skyrocketing equity and being a landlord (never working a full time job other than renovating his houses and looking after landlord type issues). During this period (2002-2008) I was a renter and pursued higher education. At the end of the day I am left holding a piece of paper (a graduate degree) that cost me $35,000 in tuition and the opportunity cost of building equity during the biggest housing boom of all time. My buddy holds two pieces of paper (mortgages) and hundreds of thousands of dollars in equity. I can only hope that my earning potential is now significantly higher than his and that one day I will eventually ‘catch up’.

#49 Dawn in Calgary on 06.03.09 at 12:20 pm

The condo developers in Calgary are getting desperate!

From today’s Herald:

A downtown condo developer is taking action to “revitalize home ownership” by introducing its own stimulus package for its highrise residential tower.

Homburg Invest Inc., said it doesn’t want to sit on unsold condos and Tuesday it announced its program for the 19-storey Castello development at 530 12th Ave. S.W.

In the 106-unit building, there are 42 remaining to be sold.

Aside from a 10 per cent down payment, the stimulus package includes that the balance would be paid in two instalments by way of first and second mortgages.

The first mortgage would be at four per cent for a five-year term on only 50 per cent of the purchase price. Payments on the first mortgage are interest payments only, calculated as simple interest.

The second mortgage will be calculated at six per cent, simple interest, for a seven-year term on the remaining 40 per cent of the purchase price. There will be no payments required on the second mortgage until the end of the term where by the accrued interest will be due.

Prices have already been slashed by an average of $100,000 per unit in the condo tower with 60 per cent of the 106 units occupied. Prices range from a low of $400,000 to $1.1 million.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/Calgary+condo+developer+unveils+stimulus+package+prospective+buyers/1655830/story.html

#50 wjp on 06.03.09 at 12:21 pm

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Business/Canadian+Mint+account+missing+gold+silver/1656843/story.html

All gold bugs…take note….
On which governments watch did this take place…lmao…

#51 wjp on 06.03.09 at 12:24 pm

And finally a voice of reason…
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Economy/idUSTRE55243Q20090603

#52 My_View on 06.03.09 at 12:27 pm

wjp

Yeah your right, what about government being honest…LMAO

#53 Ruhh on 06.03.09 at 12:30 pm

I’m gonna make a killing selling pitchforks and torches to the masses that will storm parliament… oh wait, everyone’s apathetic or too busy watching hockey or shopping for houses while they’re jacked up on Timmy’s.

#54 Keep.Saigon.Beautiful on 06.03.09 at 12:30 pm

#22 Canadian Army Guy –

It sounds like you got snookered into buying property or mortgage way beyond your means. And/or at the top of the real estate bubble.

The fact is, massive debt of all kinds is the weapon that got the global theater into the its present sordid mess.
Some weapons are generally not good to be given out directly to politicians, or children, or the general public.

Easy debt is one of those weapons.

Although many people would find it fun to have a new G6-52 SPG to play with after work, on someone else’s nickel of course, the noise would probably bug the neighbors. Worse, shells flying off 30 miles in random directions far beyond where you can see might have unintended consequences, like big debt does.

Similarly, ultra-low interest rates just enable big debt to be handed out to every short-sighted, undisciplined idiot out there. If you make it available, too many people will keep swallowing it until they puke on it. They will buy everything in sight, forcing up the prices. That’s why low rates are so bad.

12% rates would be great. 15% even better.

“What the hell do you know about surfing? You’re from god damn New Jersey!”

#55 squidly77 on 06.03.09 at 12:30 pm

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SiYtKkRinZI/AAAAAAAAGNw/C6flRlrr5lk/s1600-h/case-shiller-2009-05-tcf.png

#56 Alex on 06.03.09 at 12:40 pm

An excellent info on the nature of money:

http://silverbearcafe.com/private/natureofmoney.html

#57 ally ally oxycontin free on 06.03.09 at 12:42 pm

Does anyone here rate Lisa Raitt as highly as Maxime Bernier?

Visualise:

Briefs left hanging over a bedpost vs. A binder left in a very-public media conference room.

Will the comparative analysis involve Natural Resources personnel doing the internal ‘stoop-and-scoop’ in the same way as DFAIT did for Bernier?

If it’s marked SECRET, is it meant as a temptation to a fuller disclosure? Recall DPW in its property review [ for construction ] with [key ] architectural drawings, which would permit anyone with a knowledge of building layouts to determine the most stealthy access.

Was that a latte I saw in the Minister’s harried hand this morning? Just answer the question: How do you rate Lisa Raitt? As good as, or better than, Maxime Bernier? And please, no sexist comments!

#58 Grumpydawgs on 06.03.09 at 12:45 pm

My kid deposited his tax refund cheque at the bank yesterday and the teller told him they would have to put a hold on it until it cleared. Is the BOC in that big a kerfuffle?

I cleared up the mess of course , but I was left wondering what does this chartered bank know that we don’t.

#59 Alex on 06.03.09 at 12:59 pm

I couldn’t find any info regarding rising mortgage rates..

Any links?

Thanks!

#60 rory on 06.03.09 at 1:15 pm

Hi all …

Over at Mish’s site, http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com, he shows the latest Case-Schiller data. House prices in the US are around 2001, 2002 levels …this is pre-bubble stuff.

I just don’t get it why most in Canada think we will not match those numbers …I know we do not have the same financing problems, etc but why would we pay twice as much for a house in Canada vs the USA.

Even if house prices do not drop like the US, there has got to be zero upside in price appreciation to buying a home right now.

Bill (Nam) from your spiel yesterday …agree with a lot but …

I hope POTUS really does want and has the will to implement the right kind of change but as of now he is inspiring and smiling as he knives the USA in the back.

The GM bailout may be about the people but what about the 130,000 forestry workers …this is a very slippery slope and it is unfair to the rest…it is pitting the people against each other as will defined pensions vs. no pensions…not good…IMO.

#61 rory on 06.03.09 at 1:29 pm

I like this guy Karl, part of his blog today:

“No, the reason you’re about to lose your house is because you treated your home as a permanent and inexhaustible ATM machine – a demonstrably unsafe, unsound and FRAPPING IDIOTIC act.”

Please read the rest …will only take a minute http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

#62 Kelly McMae on 06.03.09 at 1:32 pm

#29 Happyplace ….

I fail to understand how the Reform/Alliance party’s failings are a result of the opposition. Pretty sure Harper got himself where he is on his own accord. Maybe if he governed with conviction based on purpose rather than governing based on polls he and his party would fair better.

I feel terribly for the true Conservatives who have been side-swiped by Harper’s charade. Perhaps a united right is set to reconfigure, sending the Reform/Alliance party back to glory days of Preston Manning.

#63 The Coming Depression on 06.03.09 at 1:51 pm

90% of economic advisors say we will be done with the recession by the end of this year. These same statements were made back in the 1930’s take a look:
http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/2009/06/rosy-predictions-during-great.html

#64 barb the proof reader on 06.03.09 at 1:54 pm

#19 Darryl on 06.03.09 at 5:51 am
“Sounds like the report was planted .”

Darryl,

I thought so too.

#65 barb the proof reader on 06.03.09 at 1:58 pm

#14 hobbygirl on 06.03.09 at 12:44 am
“Be prepared for more ‘Ignatieff is a very bad man’ crap ads.”

hobbygirl,

Did you see the response to Conservative personal attack ads:
http://tinyurl.com/ptykna

#66 PTDBD on 06.03.09 at 2:01 pm

Calling all fortune tellers!

America is debating the creation of a “systemic risk regulator” to forecast future financial crisis. This clairvoyant Czar of Screams would replace Bernanke in predictive power. No chickenlittles need apply.

So….what would they do if this Czar, on his first day on the job, analyzed the situation and then started screaming “panic”? Or, would they use a colour coded system? Brown for the worst case.

Greenspan was skeptical.

#67 rory on 06.03.09 at 2:05 pm

Just had a stock picking thought (it is rare) …given the pension liabilities of companies with defined pension plans maybe one should avoid those companies as an investment regardless of how they appear on paper …just a thought …IMO

#68 AppleCrunch on 06.03.09 at 2:08 pm

#60 House prices in the US are around 2001, 2002 levels …this is pre-bubble stuff.

I just don’t get it why most in Canada think we will not match those numbers …I know we do not have the same financing problems, etc but why would we pay twice as much for a house in Canada vs the USA.
———————————————————
Add to that the fact that the Canadian dollar has risen quite a bit in value since 2001-2002.

It makes Canadian homes that much more expensive than US homes and does not make sense.

#69 CalgaryRocks on 06.03.09 at 2:09 pm

#62

Dear Kelly, last time Harper tried to lead, we had a constitutional crisis because the 3 stooges did not want to lose their taxpayer financed payola. If you fail to see this then you are not being honest with yourself.

We can only thank God the conservatives are in power so as to counter balance the complete and utter failure of the US to balance it’s own books.

#70 barb the proof reader on 06.03.09 at 2:20 pm

#23:
“Barb … remember who’s seat she won? … the fall guy is already in place … or Harper will just ignore it like everything else?”

David Bakody,
The strategy and counter-strategy might be interesting, eh? Seems them leaving paperwork around is getting to be a theme? LOL! Based on Raitt turning out to be a poor choice and unpopular — her neck will at least be wholly on the line, and I’m sure Garth will sit back and enjoy the process. I like the idea that it may have been a set-up…. very Harpoon-esque to destroy drones or set-up patsies.

(As in “patsy” — no, that’s not pasties — I don’t think Lisa wears those :)

#71 @Garth 2 on 06.03.09 at 2:22 pm

#59 Alex, I use this site for the Toronto market:

http://www.monstermortgage.ca/rates/

Garth is right, 5 year money just jumped 0.10% overnight (from 3.59% to 3.69%). Why?

#72 Opportunity on 06.03.09 at 2:28 pm

Minister screws up. Aide takes the fall along with a large bonus payment, moves to another government job at a higher salary. Who loses – us the taxpayers. More Conservative initiative.

#73 rory on 06.03.09 at 2:29 pm

Okay last post today (touch wood) …interesting article on pension plans (link below)…remember where the money comes from to top up the public service pension plans (answer below if you cannot guess).

I am not anti-pension but I am anti-defined benefit pension …all pensions should be defined contribution – no exceptions …level the playing field.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Business/Teacher+pension+hits/1581531/story.html

answer: reyapxat eht ouy

#74 barb the proof reader on 06.03.09 at 3:05 pm

#39 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 06.03.09 at 10:21 am
“The system is totally BROKEN!”

Bill,
We get what we deserve, eh, when 40% of people won’t vote. The trickle-down intent always was about a high-jacked economy, brewing apathy and prospective good politicians thinning out. I don’t blame you for thinking twice.

After Harper got elected Jan. ’06, all flags went up. Knowing the coming depression, I saw a golden moment of real estate frenzy in Calgary Mar-May ’06 so I got strictly practical and put my house on the market for no less than twice it’s value. No surprise here in Calgary several were interested — they wanted the location. Leaving out the details, it would have been too drastic change at the time (soothed only by profit), so we ended the experiment after seeing the “real”, real estate figures after July had cracks. I knew the experiment over, I knew then it would be another 12 years… 2018. That’s fine. Actually, money can’t buy a well-settled home & neighbourhood — although an ocean view woulda been nice :)

[Hmm.. or one could go live beside a noisy major highway and just pretend it’s the sound of the ocean.]

#75 timbo2 on 06.03.09 at 3:08 pm

Hey Garth, maybe your old riding is cursed. Ever leave anything “top secret” laying around ?

#76 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 06.03.09 at 3:20 pm

#47 David Bakody

Shhhhh! You’give them an upset tummy and headache stating facts. They’ll blame that on the Liberals as well.

#61 rory

“But! But, that is what EVERYONE ELSE does!”, would be the likely reply! ;-)

Pasties v. Patsies #70 barb the proof reader

Oh shucky darns, and here I thought we were going to have a ‘SHOW’? ;-)

Perhaps a united right is set to reconfigure, sending the Reform/Alliance party back to glory days of Preston Manning.

#62 Kelly McMae

Egads, Reformed Reformers? I do miss good old Preston yelling ‘I love that word REFORRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRM!’ He was at least entertaining.

The Harper crowd is about as entertaining as watch grass grow, or a sewer flow by where the only real difference is the size of the POS that comes into view.

Have a nice day all!

#77 Darryl on 06.03.09 at 3:40 pm

#61 rory on 06.03.09 at 1:29 pm

Rory
That article was perfect. I like that guy too.

#78 Bobby on 06.03.09 at 3:48 pm

For #11 LS.

Yes, sales are up but most are in the lower end of the market. Prices are still down over last year. Sales at the higher end have tanked as buyers like myself are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the shoe to fall.

Looking at the rest of the island sales and prices are off dramatically. The media is talking about the rise of recreational property. There are some new condos in Bear Lodge at Mount Washington that are still for sale and that project was completed at the end of 2004. All of the furniture may be brand new but is now over 4 years old.

If you track the Canadian market as compared to the US you will see one is following the other by 18-24 months. The US market fell somewhat and then rose with falling interest rates leading some to think the market had hit bottom a few years back. Then it tanked and is still falling.

Ask yourself, what has changed, nothing. Wait for it. It is going to get ugly!!

#79 David Bakody on 06.03.09 at 3:58 pm

We all remember only too well that Raitt was never available for comment when Garth was speaking the truth to thousands upon thousands in Halton County and beyond ….. now she must face her family and friends having lost her self respect. In many respects this is sad ….. and I willing to bet a large double double Mr. Harper is not jumping with joy now over his win in Halton County. Come next election …… she is will have to explain everything and more or not run …. perhaps a quick appointment to Ontario politics is now being set up ….are you listening MSM?

#80 jess on 06.03.09 at 4:03 pm

barb the proof reader

why is this document a secret ? don’t the people of canada own this company?

#81 Got A Watch on 06.03.09 at 4:05 pm

Harper is no Conservative, and certainly not a Reformer, anymore. Maybe he used to be, but now he is just a prisoner of his own ambition, willing to sacrifice any principle so he can keep dreaming of a majority.

As the economy continues to go south, so will Harper’s chances. Which leads him to desperation measures like running huge deficits to buy some time.

If Iggy was smart, he would string Harper along till next Spring, then drop the hammer. Liberal majority would be easily in reach by then, unless the economy pulls a miracle comeback. Voters always punish the incumbent during a recession. Unless Iggy gets caught humping a goat, he’s in.

I voted for Harper previously, but likely no more. OTOH all the choices look unappealing, really.

For those who want to blame anybody but Harper for his downfall, he has no one to blame but himself. He governed badly to gain votes, stupidly over-spending and cutting taxes simultaneously during good-times, making most of the fresh budget deficit his very own.

#82 @Garth 2 on 06.03.09 at 4:12 pm

One more thing, the T.O. May 2009 numbers are out and they’re smashing, prices are only 1% down on last year (the Beaches crowd is still leveraging like mad!). How many people can say that about their RRSPs?

http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2009/pdf/nr_mwatch_0905.pdf

Prices may indeed eclipse last year’s data.. if this holds into October and is viewed against the broad collapse of 2008, the gains will start to look spectacular versus equities. I’ll admit, this certainly feels like a bubble.

If equities hold, which they may, what do we say about real estate? The inflation argument is losing sway in the broader market right now, which suggests upward rate adjustments will continue to be measured… slow enough to allow more Canadian homebuyer’s to jump in this year.

Garth, how much longer do I need to eat squirrel puree, beg a landlord to fix the toilet, and roll around discontented in my bed bug-ridden mattress full of Tbills, bank preferred shares and gold bars (10% of my portfolio only, of course!)???? Egads!

Hey, buy if you want. I’m not your mom. Just your conscience. — Garth

#83 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 06.03.09 at 5:16 pm

[Hmm.. or one could go live beside a noisy major highway and just pretend it’s the sound of the ocean.]

#74 barb the proof reader

Ah, I think many do exactly that, along with their drug of choice. Now, for those more into tsunamis there is always Pearson International! ;-)

I am sure there is also an accompanying sound for those living next to the GO tracks. We have friends who live about a block from the main CN Tracks and the throbbing sound of diesels climbing the steep grade 24/7 is actually rather soothing, but then I love trains. LOL

We have the annoying symphony of frogs, crickets, and various other horney wildlife here. I remember when I lived in the States my neighbor worked for the EPA and used a decibel (dB)level meter one night to measure the volume of the insects and frogs. It exceeded the EPA ratings for safe sound levels. He was gleeming with the thought of all the citations he could have written, with a huge grin on his face. We both laughed ourselves silly.

#84 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 06.03.09 at 5:19 pm

Hey, buy if you want. I’m not your mom. Just your conscience. — Garth

NOW, I know who that voice belongs to! Finally! LMAO!

No wonder Steve had to throw you out HIS caucus. Can’t be having anything, or anyone with a conscience there, eh?

#85 timbo on 06.03.09 at 5:34 pm

To all the goldbugs, have a read and think carefully when buying. After reading this you should convert to the touchable brick.

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=348820

#68 AppleCrunch,
I agree that it makes no sense no matter how you run the numbers. I have drawn the conclusion that what Canada is experiencing now is driven by speculation and Government intervention and not based on reality. It seems funny how some believe that things will get better when everyone is running deficits to the max to prop up a false bottom. Here in Alberta people are speculating on $100.00 oil again forgetting that the recession really got going when fuel costs went thru the roof and food prices detached from wages. While I agree with most of Garth’s ideas I still hold to my guns that $100.00 oil will kill both Canada and the US as prices for food, utilities and consumer goods will spike with no wage increase due unemployment. Add to this tax increases or major retractions in Federal, state and provincial spending to try and balance books with a shrinking tax base and heavier debt load and the end result is well , ugly.

Or, print like mad, tell the creditors to go to hell, (as all bets are off), and they will get what they get when this is done. You take your money home? Ok, we shut down wal-mart and create mex-mart.

I hold to my guns that we are to big to fail and as a debtor we hold the cards.

#86 The Tallyman on 06.03.09 at 5:34 pm

Flaherty must have mixed up Viagra with his motion sickness medication…
Poor fella doesn’t know if he’s coming or going.

#87 john m on 06.03.09 at 6:31 pm

#69 CalgaryRocks on 06.03.09 at 2:09 pm

#62

Dear Kelly, last time Harper tried to lead, we had a constitutional crisis because the 3 stooges did not want to lose their taxpayer financed payola. If you fail to see this then you are not being honest with yourself.

We can only thank God the conservatives are in power so as to counter balance the complete and utter failure of the US to balance it’s own books.
———–are you serious??? Harper has followed Obama’s every step with no stand of his own! Harper came into power with a huge surplus..which he blew on vote buying schemes,created the largest government in Canada’s history and daily is dragging our country deeper in debt..in fact he was headed for disaster before the “technical recession hit” . Life in Canada in my lifetime has never been so dismal . Are things better in Calgary now? (if you think so your dreaming).A true leader makes his own decisions..not for personal gain but because it is what he believes is best for all Canadians (thats his job) and right or wrong i can respect that…sorry i haven’t seen anything yet that merits my respect from him.In fact the best candidate for a political leader is the man who has this blog..he never wavered and stood up and stated his opinion and was ridiculed by Harper ..who also did his best to destroy his political career(and he was dead right)…………curiously your here now trying to learn something…that i find kind of ironic :-)

#88 eddy on 06.03.09 at 6:51 pm

short term mortgage money is half what it was in 06. after a correction, prices are similar or marginally lower in TO. following conventional logic, prices should be a lot higher

#89 barb the proof reader on 06.03.09 at 6:54 pm

#80 jess: “barb….why is this document a secret? don’t the people of canada own this company?”

We own the whole government and everything they do. Too bad they don’t respect us owners.

#90 Stephen on 06.03.09 at 7:12 pm

Hey Garth, I’d sell my house but my wife won’t agree to sell.
Live on the East Coast, could probably break my mortgage of 150k and pay the 2k penalty, increase the rate from 4.9%(locked in until the end of 2010) to 5.3% for 10 years.

Payments would be almost the same, I’d be out 2k but could pay off the mtg in 10 years if the rates went nuts.
What would you do? Thanks!

#91 Concessionman on 06.03.09 at 7:24 pm

Prime doubling within a year….

Ok, here’s a question…4 years plan until my mortgage is paid off, currently open at prime less .9%..yep..1.35%!

Stay open or lock in? Looks like lowest out there is around 3.7% for 5yrs….

#92 Kelly McMae on 06.03.09 at 8:17 pm

#69 CalgaryRocks

You’re fumbling all over yourself. That scenario regarding the loss of confidence in the government was the constitution in practice. As was Harper’s response. The minority, actually representing the majority spoke up. What part don’t you understand?

Not really sure how your allusion to book balancing has anything to do with Harper’s Reform/Alliance administration.

PS. I take it you fall into the disgruntled Reformer camp.

#93 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 06.03.09 at 8:49 pm

“. . . just weird . . .”

Speaking of weird, Bernanke tells Congress to stop spending or he’ll tell Mommy about their naughty ways.

Now, the Bear — http://tinyurl.com/r3o9dw — wants outta the greenback as well, so if China sets up for the Yuan to take top spot, where will the buck end up? Aren’t Celery Stalks really Green Shoots?!

Speaking of weird, Mish’s site on luxury condo prices. — http://tinyurl.com/o9waan
——
The link I posted last night re: a new economic schmoozie around Sept. in Dubai. I mentioned ‘false flag’, as Dubai is broke anyway. Today this link, also from Dubai appears.

The one thing that Caligula, Laurel & Hardy, ObL, JFK and many others have in common — they all broke on through to the other side a while back, so this is more booga-booga stuff.

Something will happen very shortly, and someone else is being set up to be the patsy for it! — http://tinyurl.com/poo2yw
——
An excellent post which follows through with what I have mentioned previously — govt. leaders are talking heads, that’s it. — http://tinyurl.com/p94u26

“If Obama was naive about well-intentioned change before the vote, he no longer has this political handicap.

“Democratic Majority Whip Dick Durbin acknowledged the voters’ defeat by the discredited banksters. The banks, Durbin said, “frankly own the place.”

We can bleat and bbbaaaaahhhhhhh all we want. The elite couldnt care less about anyone except themselves
——
Deux links. First from the US banking system. — http://tinyurl.com/okrqsf — Second is from Spain. Nice work, real nice if you can get it! — http://tinyurl.com/pzrkxz
——
Hypocrisy, thy name is ‘The Elite’, pretending to be the US. — http://tinyurl.com/qz8zcq

#94 conan on 06.03.09 at 8:51 pm

What do you guys think about this Riatt 26 year old scape goat thing?

If Harper spared Riatt the long knive then she should have spared her intern from the same fate.

#95 taxpayer like you on 06.03.09 at 9:04 pm

49 Dawn. Interesting gimmick.

“The first mortgage would be at four per cent for a five-
year term on only 50 per cent of the purchase price.
Payments on the first mortgage are interest payments
only, calculated as simple interest.”

I see lowest price is $400k, so a $200k first.

For all bloggers, but especially musky Bill, cuz he wants
simple interest, please calculate the monthly payment.

#96 c9 renter on 06.03.09 at 9:25 pm

To #63 Coming Depression…

So, when your depression fails to appear, what’s next for you??

#97 Gord In Vancouver on 06.03.09 at 9:27 pm

Still More Proof That Garth Was Right

http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investing/news/businessnews/article.aspx?cp-documentid=20214067

#98 Dan in Victoria on 06.03.09 at 9:37 pm

Court allows man out of 3.5 million Condo presale in Vancouver http://www.timescolonist.com/Business/Court+allows+presale+million+condo/1659340/story.html

#99 Bob and Doug ...the Canadian Bro's on 06.03.09 at 10:03 pm

#14 Hobbygirl – “Be prepared for more ‘Ignatieff is a very bad man’ crap ads.”

He is a bad man and a terrible choice for the liberals.
Also a terrible choice for the country.
Spend he says to the Conservatives and then tells them they spent too much.

Who is he anyway? Do you know? An aristrocrat that was lost and now looks to regain his his power.

#100 Dan on 06.03.09 at 10:05 pm

What is the hope of living anymore Garth? We should all swollow the little white pill and get it over with.

Also, I am sick and tired of the people on here who make fun of people like myself that own more than one property or who have a nice house. I worked for years at low paying jobs, drove rust bucket cars, and saved my money the best I could. Does that make me some dumb jackass now because I have a better job and have a nice house and other property. I never went on a fancy vacation with my wife and kids. My wife and I tried to do the best we could. Just kind of pisses me off Garth because I graduated in 1992 and I was lucky to even get a job with a university education. All I can say is that if interest rates go up to 12% people will be cracking politicians heads. I guess maybe I should go check out your other blog and stock up on supplies. lol

#101 john m on 06.03.09 at 10:28 pm

#94 conan on 06.03.09 at 8:51 pm

What do you guys think about this Riatt 26 year old scape goat thing?

If Harper spared Riatt the long knive then she should have spared her intern from the same fate.
———–first off why would an intern be in possession of top secret documents??(that i find very hard to believe)—-i think that poor girl is a victim of Harper’s ongoing corruption.

#102 Future Expatriate on 06.03.09 at 10:28 pm

Two articles of note:

Collapse Near?

and

SOMEONE sure likes gold

#103 CalgaryRocks on 06.03.09 at 10:30 pm

#92 Kelly McMae on 06.03.09 at 8:17 pm #69 CalgaryRocks

You’re fumbling all over yourself. That scenario regarding the loss of confidence in the government was the constitution in practice. As was Harper’s response. The minority, actually representing the majority spoke up. What part don’t you understand?

Oh, how civil of them to represent the ‘majority’. There you go, lying to yourself again. I do believe that a majority of Canadians were AGAINST the coallition Kelly, except, maybe in Quebec (they’re not Canadians, anyway). I’m not even sure that the majority of Canadians were against the cuts, actually. Certainly not to the point of getting up to the barricades with their torches.

You’re talking out of both sides of your mouth when you complain about the deficit and then you speak of ‘the majority’ being represented by the ‘coallition’ whenever even a 1$ gets cut out of the federal budget. What part of that don’t YOU understand?

#104 CalgaryRocks on 06.04.09 at 8:00 am

#100 Dan on 06.03.09 at 10:05 pm
…Does that make me some dumb jackass now because I have a better job and have a nice house and other property.
…..
All I can say is that if interest rates go up to 12% people will be cracking politicians heads.

You haven’t heard? The whole economy needs to be brought down to it’s knees so that Calgary_Rip_Off, who is struggling with only 90K/year and a secure (union?) job, can buy a 1945sqf house for 200K. Nothing less will do.

But he deserves it because he is so smart and educated, perhaps more than most people on this site. He’s proud NDP too. :)

#105 Calgary_rip_off on 06.04.09 at 9:45 am

Go back to Quebec, Calgary Rocks. They need you. Frenchie!!!