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tpb1

The doctor is IN.

The first patient here in my Kelowna weekend waiting room is Jennifer, a woman who had too many houses, now has too much questions.

I would like to know your educated opinion on what my husband and I should do with our two houses. We have a house in the suburbs of Victoria, B.C. that can be rented out, upper and lower level. The rent takes care of the mortgage and property taxes. We also have a waterfront house on Vancouver Island about 1.25 hours away from Victoria. We are able to live in the lake house and both work part time in Victoria. We recently had both houses up for sale and received an offer on both of them. The lakefront house would be in exchange for a mobile home in a nearby waterfront community plus the difference in cash. We checked out our interest rate differential at the bank and found out that we would owe $27,000 on the lake house and $20,000 on the Victoria house. We locked into a 5 year rate of around 6%, last year and now the rates are down to around 3%. Could you advise me on what we should be doing? Do you recommend renting a place to live because of your predictions with the housing market? Or would it be better just to hold on for the long term?

Well, Jennifer, you are a smart gal to sell. The current real estate market, as frothy, seductive  and appealing as it may be, is lubricated with cheap money and greater fools. The lowest mortgage rates in history – forced down because governments fear the dogs of deflation will escape – are intended to make borrowing and debt utterly irresistible. But we will hate ourselves in the morning.

As I have said before, it was excessive credit that got us into this soup, and new borrowing is not going to get us out. People buying today merely because they can afford what they could not two years ago will find they bought at the wrong time, and for the wrong price.

But, whaddya care, Jenny? You scored. Two offers. Nice.

A few comments. First, are you crazy contemplating a mobile home as a principal residence? The things are basically impossible to finance, should you ever need to, inherently depreciating and hell to sell (thus the offer of a swap). Why would you buy a home that rusts? Sheesh.

Second, Jen, if you are house-free and laden with cash, I’d take a pass on buying right now. The cheap-money flurry in sales, driven mainly by new virginal sacrifices, will not last. Wait until this autumn, avoid the rush, and save some money.

But be aware the long-term outlook for housing right now is a dreary one. All those 3% mortgages will be getting renewed in 2014 at 6%, or maybe 9%. Meanwhile unemployment and slow economic growth will be with us at least that long, which means a great chance that second leg down in the market is out there, ready to flex. In this kind of environment, with no certainty of capital gains and the real potential for capital loss, why would you want to buy anything you can lease?

Third, welcome to the world of interest rate differentials. Many people like you are shocked when they learn how much cash it will cost them to get out of a fixed-rate mortgage when the cost of money declines, as it has. Banks will charge you the greater of three month’s payments or the difference between current rates and your rate over the remaining term of your mortgage. Either pay it, or fail to get a discharge.

Another reason I always go variable. And still would.

But never on a house with hubcaps.

137 comments ↓

#1 David Bakody on 05.01.09 at 4:44 pm

Jennifer ……. no trades ….. stay put and take a clean offer (s) only, one at a time or both …. it just that simple …. it is not like the wolf is at the door ….. and Jennifer do not take any pressure from any real estate person. Strange thing about selling homes is they always sell when you least expect it to the most unlikely person (s).

#2 Future Expatriate on 05.01.09 at 5:10 pm

“But never on a house with hubcaps.”-Garth

ESPECIALLY when idiots think they can get six figures for them in the rainforests of the west.

And even high five figures is pushing it, even for a double-wide.

Oh… and “modular” “communities” as opposed to trailer parks… roflmao. Just because you hide the hubcabs doesn’t mean they aren’t there. And most of those on First Nations’ leased land to boot.

Whaddadeal…

#3 Kash is King on 05.01.09 at 5:11 pm

Tornados always make a b-line for trailer parks.

#4 Steve on 05.01.09 at 5:24 pm

Jennifer

Sell both homes.

Give each buyer a resaoable discount to assume the existing mortgage.

If they need more paper, they can get seconds or HELOCs.

Cash out now, while you can, and rent.

Garthy is bang on about a multi-year housing crisis.

#5 Marc on 05.01.09 at 5:39 pm

Garth, just think how much more money you could make by planting those plants in the picture, then the carrots you will be growing!!!

Pot is the answer, but does anyone remember the question?

#6 Future Expatriate on 05.01.09 at 6:51 pm

#5- Yes… what’s going to cause 80% of the cancer deaths in 20 years?

#7 catamaran guy on 05.01.09 at 6:55 pm

Just ask the long-time residents of Pedder Bay Marina rv park.

They were evicted by Oak Bay Marina group,couldn’t
move their mobile homes anywhere,most got demolished where they stood along with all the additions and landscaping and gardens.

I think we need new laws of land ownership,if I have been living somewhere for years,why should some creep lawyer from T.O. get to say it’s not my land?

The english have more balls then we,at least they take over building and squat.

#8 Just a Carpenter on 05.01.09 at 7:01 pm

Another reason I always go variable. And still would.

If you are so sure that rates are going to be at 6-9% in 5 years then locking in makes sense. The spread between variable and 5 year fixed right now is only .7% which on a 270K mortgage 20yr amort works out to about $96 difference or the equivalent of a round of golf and a jug of beer.

In a rising rate market the average person would consider that a small price to pay for a good nights sleep.

I had intended to come see you in the morning but it is going to be 23 and sunny. Golfing in the AM and opening my pool in the PM is a tad more attractive than sitting in a musty hotel conference room. Too bad you didn’t bring your stand in double we have room for a fourth!

Fine. Throw away your life. — Garth

#9 Da HK Kid on 05.01.09 at 7:09 pm

No Brainer, as usual here! Garth is bang on! Sell both rent a nice place to ride out the next 2-3 years and re-enter a stronger and smarter.

NO TRADES especially with gypsies, it never works out, they always get the better deal.

Here’s an idea, take both of the buyers to your bank to see if A- then can make a better loan deal and B – see if they will give you a break on the 6% discharge.

Banks want to keep their cash but also want new loans on the books. I remember my first home in Unionville ON had a $45K discharge but we talked them down to $15K.

It was a good lesson on bubbles, high interest rates and good negotiations. It happened early in life so I’ve been a great study since.

Good Luck and feel the weight coming off, it’s magic!

#10 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 05.01.09 at 7:24 pm

#4 Steve at 5:24 pm — “Cash out now, while you can, and rent. Garthy is bang on about a multi-year housing crisis.”

Right on. Run and take both offers, pay down (or off) all debts, park the dough, rent and keep your cards close to yourselves. Easier to move from / to a rented place than trying to continually flog a dead horse.

Remember the book “The Millionaire Next Door” (was David Chilton the author?) in the ’90s. Sage advice, applies to everyone who has disposable income.
——
As nothing makes sense anymore, this link is a cute diversion to nowhere. Most already know there were around 266 consecutive days without any sunspots at all, just one huge solar eruption which would have burnt our backsides, had we been closer together.

Before that, however — http://tinyurl.com/6x4ajd — and — http://tinyurl.com/cckvnl — take things a step further. Following outtake:

“This sunspot is like the first robin of spring. In this case, it’s an early omen of solar storms that will gradually increase over the next few years.”

This goes with the link mentioned above (scroll down to read short para.); also, sunspots may disappear completely (lights out) by 2015, which is when tons of boomers are retiring (no link). — http://tinyurl.com/c2kxun
——
Auntie Beeb said today that Mexico City — alone — is losing US$60 mln. / day, due to lost business because of the flu virus.

Fool me once . . . — http://tinyurl.com/cq7dwd
——
When Garth had his political blog going, I guessed the Dow would fall to 2,500; may have guessed too high. — http://tinyurl.com/dx6fe7
——
Loss of civil liberties, martial law combined with swine flu — 3:51 clip which adds to what I posted last night, about martial law in Mass.

Could be this is the reason why sunspots (and the sun) are AWOL. — http://tinyurl.com/cpa4z2

#11 OttawaMike on 05.01.09 at 7:32 pm

My aunt has a double wide “trailor” near Naples,Fla.
I explained to her how if a hurricane wiped out 1/2 her park there would be nearly 300$ damage and many priceless bowling trophies lost.

#12 Da HK Kid on 05.01.09 at 7:45 pm

RESET RESET RESET – Finally the chart that says it all compliments of Mish’s latest!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/R_HlCECrufI/AAAAAAAACZE/E1WPLRuaWmY/s1600-h/Mortgage-Rate-Resets-1.png

Now this is the REAL DEAL!

#13 Da HK Kid on 05.01.09 at 7:51 pm

sorry guys, with that link I meant to revisit my last post yesterday that we are now re-inflating a third wave prime for 2014-15 with teaser 3% 5 year fixed rates that is NOT SHOWN on this chart.

As Garth states, variable until the rates are about to turn, lock in 5-7 years fixed low rate but you must pay off your house or close too it if you own as rates will be through the roof AND your home will be worth 30% less than it is today.

Garth, if you are of the same belief, likely worth your take and a blog subject for those to contemplate further the need to sell RIGHT NOW BABY!!!!!

#14 lgre on 05.01.09 at 8:24 pm

The differential fee they are charging is nuts, I guess I got lucky when I sold in May 08, I paid 3 months of interest and a $200 fee to get out of my mortgage.

#15 LS on 05.01.09 at 8:27 pm

>> Fine. Throw away your life. — Garth

A senior moment, Garth? Sometimes your responses have absolutely no relation to the post they’re on.

Not to say that variable is better or worse than 5 year fixed (no one knows), but at these rates it’s a small price to pay for those that want peace of mind for 5 years. Sure, rates likely won’t skyrocket, but they could, and by the time they start you certainly won’t get today’s deal on a five year lock in.

And with some dedication and good fortune, you should have a good chunk of your principal gone by then.

My comment was in response to his schedule, not his mortgage advice. We have covered fixed vs VRM extensively here, son. Try to keep up. — Garth

#16 gold bugger on 05.01.09 at 8:34 pm

Catamaran writes: “I think we need new laws of land ownership,if I have been living somewhere for years,why should some creep lawyer from T.O. get to say it’s not my land?”

It’s a little thing called “private property rights”. Magna Carta, and all that. But don’t let a THOUSAND YEARS of common law get in the way of your latent Marxism.

Good luck at the Phish concert. I hear there’s bitchin’ weed at those things. Remember to bring a hackey sack.

#17 Just a Carpenter on 05.01.09 at 9:32 pm

#15 LS

Give him some slack, He is in the restaurant surrounded by distraction, and definitely not thinking straight. He would much rather spend the morning outside with us “throwing our lives away” !

#18 JET on 05.01.09 at 10:22 pm

How about this:
Get a variable rate mortgage, but make your payments as if it is 7%, and just let the principal and interest fluctuate with the variable rate. That way, if rates ever rise, the cashflow impact will be minimal. If you can’t make the monthly payments based on 7%, don’t even think about buying.

#19 jess on 05.01.09 at 10:40 pm

ghost towers from asia years later abandoned !!!!!!!!!!

http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid452319854?bctid=1126133172

http://www.newyorkfed.org/tmpg/
naked shorting

#20 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 05.01.09 at 10:45 pm

Regardless of the tornado factor (which will kill off chipboard doghouses just as fast as anything with a removable axle), a well-made modern single-wide ‘trailer’ will give way better cost/benefit performance these days than any stick-house new or used.

Yes, I’ve once seen an acquaintance with old product kicked off of a park that was sold for development, but I’ve also seen first hand ‘regular’ neighborhoods flattened for roadway expansions, heard of all sorts of ‘money-pit’ horror stories involving stick-house property that people paid over a half-million for (Garth?), and volumes of complaints about left-coast condo ‘blue-tarp specials’ where the strata council had to assess high 5 figures for repairs to repair shoddy highrise construction.

Despite having lived in nice places in some of the most expensive cities on this planet, I would seriously give the ‘trailer’ crowd a lot more respect than the stigma they’ve been stamped with over the last half century.

All trailers and situations are not made equal, just like vehicles and stick-houses aren’t. Single-wides or modular houses can be a great idea because they are made indoors under optimal conditions with optimized layouts and a range of material grades you can specify. Construction & assembly is way better than what you’d find done by many of the half-cut hammer-bangers slamming chipboard doghouses together here in north america over the last 5 years.

‘Trailers’ are great for remote or rural areas where you can just pull a new, reliable and adequate place to live in onto a foundation, connect up power, water, and propane, and have it paid off in a couple of years on a modest salary. No need to drag a crew all the way out into the boonies every day for months to build something you can’t relocate and will be paying for past retirement age. Lots of old farmhouses are used for granaries or are abandoned now because they’re so obsolete they can’t be used for anything else.

For a rain forest, a particularly robust roof and attached porches could be ordered if you want. In really cold areas, and in most new installations, the ‘trailer’ can be bolted onto a foundation to keep the floor warm and be designed with a custom trap-door to access it. All for less than a hundred grand.

Sure, there is a some old, obsolete crap out there that still exists, just like cars that haven’t been turned into re-bar yet, but new products are actually just small standard-dimension houses mounted on a transport beam base, and designed for basement foundations. Complete with peaked roof and fireplace.

But what the hell. Lots of car drivers can’t stand bicycles or motorcycles either – maybe it’s a leather-jacket and freedom thing.

#21 Too Old Bob$ on 05.01.09 at 10:57 pm

Sitting at work the other night, chillin a bit. Janitor comes up to BS with me a bit about hockey. He tells me that his son (25 years old) just bought a new house in a area I am familiar with. Dam nice and big. He has 2 other friends that are going to live with him and pay the rent. I said “oh! aren’t those houses kinda expensive?” He says” well I did help him a bit with the purchase.” he also commented on how the prices have come down and you can’t beat the interest rates. “NOW’S THE TIME TO BUY” Wow! the BoC, Banks and Realtors have done their subliminal seduction.
I mentioned to him that interest rates would probably be going up in the near future and the cost of his mortgage would increase, plus what if he loses his job. I also thought about his renters possibly leaving to venture on their own. He said “no problem, he locked in for 5 years with a good rate and he’ll just get other renters and a job”. (obviously never rented before or lost a job) “So what about after the five years?”

……..”We will worry about that when it happens.”

THERE YOU GO FOLKS. That’s the friggin problem now a days. I wanted to grab him and hit him with his mop and take his duster and shove it…..
Anyways I said ” welcome to reality and good luck”

Garth says: “But never on a house with hubcaps.”

Rumour says that Chrysler and FIAT will introduce their first vehicle in 2 years. That’s right a home on wheels,(tax deductable) not a RV but a vehicle that you drive everyday to work or EI and live in because you won’t be able to afford a house or rent.

So there Garth! hubcaps will be the way of the future.

#22 nonplused on 05.01.09 at 11:48 pm

#15 – can’t believe you missed that joke. Golfing and opening the pool beats even Garth talking econ 101. Not that I’m a big golfer.

Jennifer – selling in a down market is hard, be realistic, but don’t trade a bad asset for a worse one! Older trailer homes have all the plusses of old houses and some minuses. Although not quite as bad as Garth says. All houses decay and require expensive upkeep. Problem is mobiles never get any.

#23 nonplused on 05.01.09 at 11:54 pm

I personally still like RV’s. The new Tripple E’s out of Winnepeg are built like a brick outhouse, and they are on sale until the company goes under. Just need a place to park and hookups

#24 dbg on 05.01.09 at 11:57 pm

Life is good if you don’t get blogged down in the details.

Generalists make money.

Gold sucks and Fiat rules…….look they are buying Chrysler…….kinda of.

#25 dbg on 05.01.09 at 11:59 pm

Real Estate is good in the right market and so is branding.

The Winnipeg market still rocks!

The cap rate is still gooooooooood.

Vancouver sucks and so does Kelowna.

Players play and bloggers blog!

#26 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 05.02.09 at 12:49 am

Sure would be interesting to time-travel forth to 2014 and a few years hence, see where the world is going — if, in fact, it is still here — and if so, find out for once and all just how many Greater Fools took on further unnecessary debt loads, rather than being content with what they have.

Mebbe the immigration levels will be raised substantially, so that Canada has a population of 135 million all told, 130 mln. of which are Sheeple Of The Highest Order, taking on way too much debt and not bothering to pay it back.

Still the world turns.
——
A.K.A. “The Biggest Debt Binge In World History”, the US Treasury Bubbles could be slightly over-inflated or worthless . . . take your pick (which probably means ours are toast as well). — http://tinyurl.com/de2spl

This link from The Guardian is the opposite of the preceding. How the (once) mighty are falling ever faster. The bigger the debt binge, the bigger the hit for regular folks. — http://tinyurl.com/dcgwdh
——
As one part of the world sinks, another swims. The quirky part of this is that China has at least 100 million people who suffer from mental illness in one form or another.

One reason may be that Chinese parents push quite hard in having their children constantly learning, 16 hours a day, seven days a week. By the time they are in the mid-20’s or 30’s and burnt out, they don’t care any more, so too much education is a double-edged sword. — http://tinyurl.com/cxruhh
——
A classy way of saying, “The govt. cannot afford to pay you a pension anymore, which you worked so hard for. Sorry.” — http://tinyurl.com/cqqrl7
——
Vive Le Canada! Interesting article on Mexican swine flu. — http://tinyurl.com/d28au8

“. . . all public events have been cancelled and people have flocked to the supermarkets in surgical masks to stock up on food. . . .” — Stock up on Wendy’s Baconaters!

#27 Munch on 05.02.09 at 12:51 am

Garth!

bwahahahaha

You are FLIPPING rude, but somehow you get away with it!

I LOVE it!

Munch

#28 Da HK Kid on 05.02.09 at 1:02 am

Should be interesting, first case of Swine in Hong Kong. Some 25 year old Mexican visiting a trade show I believe. Now in lock down in HK by the government, everyone in his hotel and every step he likely took.

After SARS and Bird Flu, HKers know the drill. I’m expecting the worse is yet to come. Keep you posted!

#29 Gord In Vancouver on 05.02.09 at 3:23 am

#18 JET

….If you can’t make the monthly payments based on 7%, don’t even think about buying.
_______________________________________

What’s scary is that many of today’s buyers, especially those in expensive areas like Vancouver and downtown Toronto, can barely afford mortgages at today’s rock bottom rates. A couple of years from now, we’ll have a second wave of shell shocked homeowners.

#30 Da HK Kid on 05.02.09 at 3:53 am

#19 Jess, I have seen these towers left over from 15 years ago built on spec just before the Asian Financial Crises.

Remember the Asians are well versed in crises and have tones of cash stashed with a savings rate of 50%.

Who do you think are going to recover quicker????

The Western World I think NOT!

Even the Aussies are going to finally get spanked with their bubble who lists all the 6 major cities as having the least affordable housing in the world and Btw, Vancouver is right in the mix.

#31 miketheengineer on 05.02.09 at 7:23 am

Garth et al:

Chrysler and the Bankrupcy

Everything that you predicted is now coming to light. 20% Unemployment by Xmas. Massive home sales, defaults by Xmas and beyond. It is a downward spiral. Check out the article about the Chrysler worker who is now selling. This is the future. People forced to sell.

http://www.thestar.com/recession/article/627857

I started reading you site last year. I saw the cup as being “half full”. I don’t see it anymore. I see the cup being empty.

#32 TrueGritCalgary on 05.02.09 at 9:50 am

Garth, when you talk about going with a variable rate mortgage, do you mean a short term open variable, or a 5 closed variable?

Open, pliant and flexible. Like me. — Garth

#33 smwhite on 05.02.09 at 9:57 am

In a rising rate market the average person would consider that a small price to pay for a good nights sleep.

The herd worries about rates, when they should be worrying about principal.

In 5 years time, they’ll be fretting about that large sum of money borrowed, of course unless our CONSERVATIVE government can figure out a third way to juice real estate one more time.

#34 905er & Spouse on 05.02.09 at 10:18 am

#31 Mike the engineer-
I was about to post the same article. Further confirmation why Gen X and especially Y are screwed. Gen Y has even larger student debt than X and was forced to buy at the height of the boom. Now Gen Y is the most at risk of losing their jobs as they have the least experience and seniority.

This generation has it really rough. Makes me think of a book I recently read- “the Coming Depression” by Harry Dent. His work is based around using demographic trends to predict economics. He talks about how a lot about how an individual’s economic success can be attributed to their place of birth within the economic cycle (ie what generation they are born in).

#35 Irene on 05.02.09 at 10:52 am

A few comments. First, are you crazy contemplating a mobile home as a principal residence? The things are basically impossible to finance, should you ever need to, inherently depreciating and hell to sell (thus the offer of a swap). Why would you buy a home that rusts? Sheesh.

Garth, that’s your opinion and not everybody else’s. You see Garth, some of live in modular homes and most of us who do, do not have to finance them. And for your information, they do sell easily. And they have also gone up in price and are in demand. Nice homes, no mortgage and very comfortable. And they do not rust or have hub caps either. Not everybody is in your position with tons of cash to spend on housing. You see Garth, most of us raised children, saw them through school, some through universities and buying stick houses was not even an options nor did we want to be paying a mortgage for the rest of our lives. We all lived through some tough economic times and didn’t have to worry about mortgage taking all our money let alone food and medicines.
But that’s okay Garth, think what you want but there are a lot of people who would take our way of living over paying for a house for the rest of their lives or maybe never.
Have a nice weekend and maybe its time to walk in our shoes for a change. You just might like it. Relaxing, very little stress and we do have a lot of friends who feel the same.

Regards

#36 Chong on 05.02.09 at 10:54 am

April condo sales in Calgary were not down. House sales down only 5%. House prices up 4th month in a row. Listings down 40%.

#37 Dave on 05.02.09 at 11:13 am

Everything that you predicted is now coming to light. 20% Unemployment by Xmas. Massive home sales, defaults by Xmas and beyond.

I started reading you site last year. I saw the cup as being “half full”. I don’t see it anymore. I see the cup being empty.

——————————————–

20% is a pretty dramatic increase. So you went from someone who thought everything was fine last year, to someone who sees 20% unemployment?

#38 Basil Fawlty on 05.02.09 at 12:46 pm

Sorry, I have been out of town, but here is some more “proof” re: China’s purchase of gold.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Chinas-gold-buy-raises-eyebrows/story.aspx?guid=%7B13486258-94EA-44E8-AEC4-3691693D6B42%7D

“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value — zero.” Voltaire

#39 Barb the proof reader on 05.02.09 at 12:46 pm

“Auntie Beeb said today that Mexico City — alone — is losing $60 US / mln. / day, due to lost business because of the flu virus. . .”
— #10 … fried eggs and spam

Si, señor f.e.a.s.

On the news last night, reporter in Mexico City was staying in a 25 floor hotel which had only 11 rooms occupied…. three of those rooms were for him and his camera crew. The Scare is in.

¿Habla hotel vacancy/occupancy rate?

#40 Charles T. on 05.02.09 at 1:28 pm

Good article from the folks over at the dailyreckoning.com

An Even Greater Depression

#41 dekethegeek on 05.02.09 at 1:57 pm

#27 Munch
We have a “somewhat free press” here than S.A. but if Garth had said anything remotely rascist, anti religious or otherwise controversial he could be hauled up in front of some type of “Kangeroo Court” for spreading Hate.
Financial Idiots still seem to be fair game.

Speaking of wackos, where oh where is my favorite Nom de plume . North Van Citizen Jr.?
Ive been away for a few weeks. Garth deprived. Has NVC jr. been “Banned in Blogdom?

#42 David on 05.02.09 at 2:48 pm

Reading comments from people like dbg is not very reassuring.
Winnipeg home prices more than doubled in the past 5 years, while the local economy and incomes flat lined at best. If that falls into your definition of a “rocking market”, then good luck. As home prices rise, cap rates fall in real terms. When interest rates inevitably start to rise in few years the cap rates that you think are so wonderful will become microscopic in Winnipeg.
Players play and inevitably wind up losing in a sucker’s game for financial fools.
Go for it and bet the farm on higher future interest rates and declining home prices.

#43 meggie on 05.02.09 at 3:04 pm

Perhaps a little more opptimism, encouraging people, using language thats useful, and seeking the better good would go further on this forum.

Garth-there is a fine line between confidence and cockiness. Expressing ones-self in a humble manner is a choice. Pride always comes before a fall.

Sure, mom. — Garth

#44 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 05.02.09 at 3:21 pm

#39 Barb the proof reader at 12:46 pm — “. . . The Scare is in.”

Damn right it is. Sheeple don’t have a bloody clue about the basics.

These jackasses view life as lasting forever (which it does, but not with these temporary physical bodies), and consequently get extremely upset when a ‘pandemic’, promoted by the controlled m$m pops up out of nowhere (read: Pandemic By Design).

Friday’s Kelowna Capital News had an interesting letter from a doctor, headed “Vaccines not the only way to head off the flu”, which also goes with the CPC’s attempts to introduce Bills C-51 and C-52 prior to the election last year, and now quietly re-introduced as Bill C-6, to remove natural health food and supplement stores, along with their products.

Who benefits? Big pharma, as they get to sell their stuff. Parts of the letter, including the first half of the first sentence which is very accurate (caps. mine):

“In this current PANDEMIC OF FEAR (about swine flu) . . . In the swine flu outbreak of 1976, 40,000 vaccinations for the flu were administered. In the end, one person died from the flu and 25 died from the vaccines.”

“. . . Natural Vitamin D3 stimulates the body to produce at least 200 anti-microbial compounds. In one study, 2,000 units daily of Vitamin D prevented flu in all individuals.”

“In the flu epidemic of 1918, the mortality rate for homeopathic treatment was 1.05 per cent and the rate for for traditional medical treatment of the time was 30 per cent. Herbal medicine provides many herbs that have antiviral and anti-bacterial actions as well as immune strengthening properties.”

Vaccinations are about as useful as sheeple. Obviously, homeopathy and natural health stores take much better care of an individual. Two decades or so ago, I read that out of every ten different plants that grew in the Amazon, nine were beneficial to humanity (not sure what the ratio is now, due to the destruction there).

Links re: the CPC, Bills C-6, C-51, C-52 and big pharma.

http://tinyurl.com/c5ghmfhttp://tinyurl.com/dn7mpthttp://tinyurl.com/7amshhttp://tinyurl.com/db7o6q

From the second link: “At the same time that C-6 & C-52 is outlawing herbs, supplements and vitamins, it would grant alarming new “enforcement” powers to the (thugs) enforcement agents who claim to be “protecting” the public from dangerous unapproved “therapeutic agents” like, say, dandelion greens.”

Part of a line in the third link reads ” . . . thread of a ‘technology of death’,” but I figure most of you will have already read what I said in my intro. about these bodies.

The whole thing is nothing more than a worldwide scare- and fear-mongering tactics, used in conjunction with the fiscal take-down.

#45 Bottoms_Up on 05.02.09 at 3:50 pm

Great graphic on job gains/losses differential per metropolitan area in the USA since 2004…(move along, nothing to see here…)

#46 Future Expatriate on 05.02.09 at 4:01 pm

#35- No one is saying that trailers or modulars are necessarily inferior. However, when they’re on leased land (which reverts back to First Nations in 20 years and you’ve got a modular that can’t be moved more than once without massive structural crack damage), and you’ve got park fees of $500+ a month (so much for having “no mortgage payments”) there isn’t one in existence worth more than LOW five figures.

They are the single most horrifically overpriced housing for what they are, resale value, and what you get for the money. Especially on Vancouver Island.

Not to mention decades of formaldehyde poisoning in older models. In the US, brand new units are killing people in New Orleans.

So no, all is not rosy in hubcab house land. Expect values to drop on them more than any other kind of housing. On Vancouver Island, up to 75 to 80%.

#47 wjp on 05.02.09 at 4:03 pm

#35…I believe there is a difference between a modular home and a mobile home, anything with a motor and wheels is likely to depreciate in value rather rapidly, however, I agree with your assessment that quality of life is far more rewarding than quantity of life. Your modular vs. mobile however is the apples & oranges argument which was the initial point of this thread.

#48 wjp on 05.02.09 at 4:05 pm

#41…Sorry to say he is using other names which makes me read one of his posts everytime he does…very unfair!

#49 timbo on 05.02.09 at 4:40 pm

#36 Chong

Calgary is in a dead cat bounce right now. Check out stats for spring and early summer and see the trend.

Remember about that 2011 kg gorilla in the bedroom closet and the 0/40 year mortgage lock that will break things open soon. 1/2 of all mortgages in Calgary in 2007-2008 were 0 down 40 year and when they come up for renewal king kong will be running around the room with a horrible roar.

#50 mr noodles on 05.02.09 at 4:47 pm

mr noodles
descibed as a handyman special, but priced to sell ,on its own lot and the cheapest proprty in fort mac .your
very own mobile $269,000!! hope it comes with spinning hub caps.
fort mac real estate chip wrapper,may 2009.

#51 Mike B on 05.02.09 at 5:20 pm

Anyone have any Toronto stats for RE in April…. Most agents are pretty chirpy… making lots of coin…supposedly multiple offers… But hey I was in multiple offers in 1991 so that can’t mean much… Thinking about renting a better place and waiting it out maybe as long as a year…

#52 Barb the proof reader on 05.02.09 at 5:24 pm

Garth,

O/T but interesting zoom-able photo of inauguration, of each face in crowd. If something’d gone wrong – photo ID’s ready. Click zoom to any face . . wait.. focus adjusts. Taken with robotic 1474 megapixel (295 times standard camera).

If the protests and riots happen at least they are ready..

http://gigapan.org/viewGigapanFullscreen.php?auth=033ef14483ee899496648c2b4b06233c

#53 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.02.09 at 5:51 pm

#35 Irene

No kidding. The RE industry, insurance companies and the generally imbecilic public all don’t know their ass from a hole in the ground regarding manufactured homes.

There are ‘Mobile Homes’ Those are, today, what Joe Redneck can haul behind his pickmeup truck to evade his enemies and creditors and ex-wives. They are commonly called TRAILERS! The name being derived from the fact that the ‘trail’ behind the POS pickmeup truck Joe Redneck is driving, probably without a license or insurance.

Then there are Manufactured Homes which can be brought from the factory to the site using a large semi tractor, special permits, Oversized Load escorts, and require a licensed contractor to move and place. The tires are removed once the are placed on the site and get regular permanent hookups to the utilities. They more often than not have additional modules that are attached. They are not MOBILE HOMES! Their empty weight is well over 20,000 pounds. That is ten tons of house, not a trailer. Single wides are usually 14 feet wide and 60 feet long. dopuble wides are about 28 feet wide and 60 feet long.

Then there are the modular homes. Those too are built in a factory, trucked to the site and assembled in modular units to make what otherwise appears as a Regular House. Garth should know this as one of the largets such manufacturers is in his RIDING, or was his riding. They too require special transport permits and equipment. usually the modules are loaded on a low-boy flat bed semi-trailer and place with a crane.

We bought a Manufactured Home last Fall. Love it, paid a reasonable price and will at least get our money BACK if we sell it. It is plenty enough space for us, as well as overnight guests. We have great mature neighbors as well as youbng couples with children who conduct themselves far better than the party animals in most sub-divisions. Yes, it is on leased land and that makes a lot of sense because if anything goes wrong with the sewer, water, or road system the landlord is responable. Guess what a new septic system will cost? About $15-25,000+. Not our problem. We have a functional Homeowner’s Association and legal counsel on retainer to deal with any problems that come along.

Price ranged from $40k to well over $200K. Try getting over a 1,000 square feet of living space which you can do with as YOU please, complete with a large lot (70′ x 100′) where you can plabnt gardens, have nice lawns and furniture, etc. buying a Condo for $250K to astronomical figures that are insane PLUs the condo fees, parking fees, extra maintenance fees, noisy neighbors, NO LAND, and HOPE the construction is properly done. Our total monthly for mortgage and lease is under $1,000. Beat that in some cheese box Condo. Hell, try getting an apartment for that amount?

The fine people that live here are NOT Trailer Trash. Most are retired and very wonderful people.

Personally I am DAMNED TIRED of the stereotyping by the RE slugs who want to sell landlocked overpriced homes. We simply chose to buy a good HOME in a good NEIGHBORHOOD, and at a fair price.

Try moving either such a home or a ‘regular’ home. Good luck and make sure you have that second or third mortgage APPROVED before planning to do so. Mobile Home my arse!

Oh, and BTW, the local RE people love listing them because them MOVE rapidly.

The entire common belief about such homes is the result of the local politicans being in bed with the developers and fostered by the RE industry who want BIG COMMISSIONS on way overpriced POS houses. People are plain STUPID in my opinion. We have a HOME, not an investment, and money left over for having fun in our lives. Our investments are in our RRSP’s managed by a competent Financial Advisor who makes us MONEY on our MONEY!

Thanks for your comment Irene. It prompted mine in addition. Now it is time to go out to my YARD, light up our Big BBQ, and grill some AAA Black Angus STEAK! Try that luxury in your $500K to $1 Million Condo people. Better head over to the Keg and pay about $100 for dinner for two. Oh, and we never have to wait on the elevator either then standing in it confined with someone who has the N1H1 Virus, SARS, or rudely farts gassing everyone. All on ONE LEVEL! LMAO!

Did I mention the beautiful crystal clear night sky and the wildlife we have? The chirping birds that serenade us from dawn to dusk? Nope, but then your concrete prison wouldn’t have such amenities for all that money, debt, stress, and uncertainty. Oh, and the wonderful fresh air and breeze that eliminates the need for stuffy A/C and the costs of running it. Oh, and the lakes, we have several large ones within 10 minutes or less, and fishing, wonderful little get together diners, and real friends who will gladly come assist with a simple phone call! Plus, we do not need to ‘escape’ the city by having another home in Cottage Country.

And they wonder why I call them Citiots? Still ROFLMAO!

#54 Give-Me-A-Break on 05.02.09 at 6:08 pm

#49 timbo

EVERYTHING is in a Dead Cat Bounce right now, carefully orchestrated to lead “Greater Fools” into slowing the economic meltdown. But can it be sustained? IMHO – Not a chance. The longer we postpone it the worse it will be when we finally have to deal with it.

BTW do you know how many people die of the flu every year, in any given year? This Swine Flu thing is not that big a deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a carefully orchestrated series of events and press releases designed to take our minds of our economic woes. That being said, and as Garth has mention, in turbulent times, such as this, it is the unexpected non-linear events which reek the most havoc.

But at the end of the day life as we know it could be extinguished by a massive meteor moving at such speed we don’t see it coming but for a final second or two of darkness before it smashes into Earth turning that newly bought Hummer into nothing more than sparkling dust in the atmosphere and it’s proud new owner even less.

Suck it up folks… while this is going to be a long one there is more to life than the almighty dollar and that which it buys. If only our governments would realize this.

But ain’t I just a glowing ray of sunshine?

#55 Brad on 05.02.09 at 6:15 pm

Part time jobs of sometimes having to work two or three of them to equal full time hours. No benefits or perks. No job security. Sometimes, I wonder if it’s all worth it. It’s criminal the predicament this government has left 20 and early 30’s people in. I can’t find anything in my field of work. In fact, the only thing I really see hiring are call centres and their salaries keep on dropping. It’s just a frustrating cycle of being unemployed, bullshit McJobs, filing for EI, and then having to spend the first ten years of your life chasing entry level jobs for a career.

As far as this banking crisis goes, it’s been a long time in coming, and way overdue. Hell, at 34yrs old, even I can see the paper money game for what it really is. You are absolutely correct, Garth. People are friggen’ sheep. I truly am astounded at the level of incompetence and stupidity I see on a daily basis. Welcome to the rat race of the 21st century folks. Gotta love our “Wal-Mart” economy…

#56 Chong on 05.02.09 at 6:21 pm

#49 Timbo

One big difference this year. Inventory is 40% lower than last year, and is dropping, when normally it would be going up. A shortage of listings is going to keep the prices stable.

#57 Give-Me-A-Break on 05.02.09 at 6:29 pm

13,000 die of the flu…

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/index.html

the REGULAR flu since January.

#58 Shifty on 05.02.09 at 6:33 pm

Victoria condo’s are showing up in the rental market. Looks like some folks have been caught in the net and trying to make ends meet. This has happened before to the speculators and realtors playing the market. When the interest rates go up their is going to be some serious losses in this neck of the woods.

#59 OttawaMike on 05.02.09 at 7:08 pm

Correct me if I’m wrong here: The last time I heard, trailers sorry.. mobile, er modular housing did not even have a real title like other real estate. Those places have ownership papers like a vehicle and depreciate at close to the same rate as a Chrysler 300 sedan.
I agree with the other post and wish to add these places are an swindle on the lower socioeconomic margins of society by making them think they are buying into the dream of home ownership.

#60 Jordan on 05.02.09 at 7:24 pm

Although I’m a Gen-Xer and graduated in 1998, All I found was low-paying, dead-end jobs. I think the real problem is the unreasonable expectations driven into students about the importance of a university education. The number of grads far outweighs demand in the economy. I too left Canada after a series of jobs that barely paid subsistence wages. On top were university debts and collection agencies. I eventually got fed up, and in 2003 left to teach overseas. That was the best thing I ever did in my opinion, and I haven’t been back since. Nor do I have any desire of returning.

Seems Canada has become a graduate factory that other countries can take advantage of by hiring talented, smart people who are willing to work beyond Canadian borders, while also wanting desperately to escape Canada’s ridiculous tax system. It is Canadian citizens who end up losing out. I’m a Canadian by passport, and see my home as anywhere that allows me a decent opportunity to work and help feed and clothe my family. Canada has changed, and I have never seen the job climate and overall prospects this bad…

#61 dbg on 05.02.09 at 7:26 pm

#42 David

Which is it? Rising prices or falling prices?

I think you’ve covered all the bases. Hey, if you think a 1% vacancy rate and some of the cheapest real estate in western canada is a bad deal….. oh and low rates. Rates go up and down. Winnipeg hasn’t been flat lining. Steady as she goes.

So, don’t disrespect the Peg.

It is a hell of lot better than the weed they are smoking up in North Van. Ask Jr.

It’s the next FC of the world……..baby!

#62 john m on 05.02.09 at 7:35 pm

Strange times we are living in…the largest automakers in the world are going bankrupt,unemployment is rising at a 30 year high,personal debt is higher than ever recorded,over 160,000 or more Canadians will go bankrupt this year,government debt is astronomical,people are lining up at the food banks,real estate values are crashing like never before,job security is only a dream,etc.—-yet people are going out and buying homes ,going deeper in debt,the stock market is rising——-where this dream or fantasy will end will not be pretty….We had a huge problem we now have a disaster!

#63 lgre on 05.02.09 at 7:40 pm

Financial crisis predicted 10 years ago by senator

”I think we will look back in 10 years’ time and say we should not have done this but we did because we forgot the lessons of the past, and that that which is true in the 1930’s is true in 2010,” said Senator Byron L. Dorgan, Democrat of North Dakota. ”I wasn’t around during the 1930’s or the debate over Glass-Steagall. But I was here in the early 1980’s when it was decided to allow the expansion of savings and loans. We have now decided in the name of modernization to forget the lessons of the past, of safety and of soundness.”

http://www.nytimes.com/1999/11/05/business/congress-passes-wide-ranging-bill-easing-bank-laws.html?pagewanted=1

#64 jess on 05.02.09 at 8:00 pm

self-enrichment

http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/bribe/2009/04/nigeria-corruptions-collateral-damage.html

#65 Sondra on 05.02.09 at 9:06 pm

35 Irene on 05.02.09 at 10:52 am

Glad to hear you enjoy your lifestyle, nothing wrong with that. To they known self be true.

You err on the point that these homes, (mobile, modular, park model, trailer what ever name people want to associate) are easy to sell. They are considered a “chattel” not real estate. Therefore a depreciable asset.

They are not easy to sell, they are not even easy to give away.

#66 dd on 05.02.09 at 11:46 pm

Sell so you can buy a trailer home? How did you get the bank to lend you money for 2 homes?

#67 dd on 05.02.09 at 11:47 pm

#62 lgre,

Google Jim Rogers … he has been predicting this meltdown since 1997.

#68 Greg W. Oakville on 05.03.09 at 12:32 am

Hi #44 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 05.02.09 at 3:21 pm,
and others,

Thanks for the links and information on health and big drug companies, big medicine and the Bills in Parliament that if past will limit and take away our rights to try and stay as well as possible.

Some other issue to try and stay healthy;

Do NOT drink any water that has been fluoridated. It’s basically toxic waste that industry can’t get ride of except by dilution.
Dilution is NOT the solution.
The same group that once told use DDT was safe came up with the myth that we should all be forced to drink fluoride.

Minimize your total expose to fluoride to try and stay as healthy as possible.

For more on the effect of drinking and exposure to fluoride see
http://www.fluoridealert.org/

Journal of fluoride
http://www.fluoride-journal.com/

Environmental Science & Engineering magazine
July 2008, on page 38-41 ‘Canadian water providers ceasing artificial fluoridation’
http://ese.dgtlpub.com/2008/2008-07-31/home.php

Brita water filters DO NOT remove fluoride.
Boiling water make it more concentrated.
Reverse osmosis with and ion exchange filter can remove fluoride from water.

* Best, write your local government and tell then to stop adding this toxic fluoride to your drinking water supply. It’ll save money and help to keep people healthier longer.

Lots of common drug contain fluoride.
Why is it that in the west, our Doctors are not able to have our blood and urine tested for fluoride levels before treating us for the common symptoms that fluoride could be the cause of?

Some newer pesticides have fluoride.
Do not drink tea black; add calcium rich milk to keep from absorbing the fluoride this is found in tea.
Can fish like tuna has added fluoride as a preservative.

Fluoride increases errors in DND replication. It calcifies the soft tissue of the body and softens bones. There is a very long list of BAD things fluoride can do to the human body! See links above.

Drinking fluoride does NOT help reduce cavities,
It’s a MYTH!!!
Look at the newest good science on fluoride at links above.
Any reduction in cavities if topical, not from drinking it!!!
(Belief in myth avoids the discomfort of thought.)

If you mix baby formula with fluoridated water your infants IQ will be lowered permanently! Don’t we want more smart people in our society, and healthy people???
(The mother’s breast keeps fluoride from go to the infant. But the unborn child of mothers exposed to fluoride still get exposed in the womb.)

The fluoride compounds that are added to the drinking water supply is from the phosphate industries scrubbers towers and also contains lead, arsenic, cadmium.

Another health issues you may not know about,

PBH in some plastics was developed in the 30’s as a possible estrogen replacement hormone. They found a better replacement compound, so BPH was put on the shelf. In the 50-60’s when plastic was invented an other chemist thought BPH could be used, but forgot about why it was invented in the first place, as a estrogen mimicking chemical.
You need let hormones than other chemicals to have effect on the body because it acts as a biological switch that cause cascade effects.

The free (in Ontario) flu short has a preservative in it called thimerosal, which is ~50% ethyl mercury. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thiomersal
If you put the same amount into a fish, it would be considered unsafe to eat. And we think injecting mercury; a Nero toxin into out blood streams is ok?

(Each dose (0.5 mL) contains three strains of influenza virus. Nonmedicinal ingredients: hemagglutinin, thimerosal, gelatin, sodium phosphate-buffered, and isotonic sodium chloride solution. The vaccine may contain small amounts of formaldehyde, sucrose, and Triton X-100.)

Pollution in Canadians;
http://www.environmentaldefence.ca/toxicnation/press/realeases/20051109.htm?zoom_highlight=polution+in+canadians

What a made world we are live in!

#69 Munch on 05.03.09 at 12:42 am

“Sure, Mom”

bwahahahaha

Garth, you CRACK me up, man!

Speaking of which, does anyone else see the next big CRACK in the markets starting Monday?

Well, it starts Monday! You heard it here first!

Rgds, Munch

#70 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 05.03.09 at 12:50 am

1:31 clip of TV ads from the 1976 flu hysteria. Comments courtesy wrh.com. — http://tinyurl.com/d8j9su

“This is a collection of the TV commercials helping to sell the idea of vaccination to the American people back in 1976.

“The pharmaceutical companies made a fortune off of the vaccinations, but over 500 people were left with permanent neurological damage from the shots, and 50 people died from the vaccines.

“Only one person died from the actual swine flu.”

A night or two ago, I saw the cover of Time or Newsweek magazine on the ‘net, and the title was “Police State”, which can also be interpreted as the NWO.

Following two links, especially the last one about connecting the dots back this up.

The entire “pandemic” garbage, which the m$m throws out with such glee, is merely hiding a front for this to happen shortly. — http://tinyurl.com/ckk46p / http://tinyurl.com/dyu8v4
——
Mish’s post is good, re: stupidity. — http://tinyurl.com/cs4ld9
——
An opinion — that’s all — on gold not reaching four figures. 15% or so of investments can be in precious metals. — http://tinyurl.com/d47n8w

“Eastern Europe borders on bankruptcy. Brazil’s economy is falling off a cliff. Ditto Mexico. Protests have erupted in Latvia, Chile, Greece, Bulgaria, Iceland, Dublin, and parts of the U.S. Workers have gone on strike in Britain and France. In the U.S., 36 states and the District of Columbia have proposed or implemented reductions in the civil workforce. (You think customer service is poor now…). An astounding one in nine homes, 14 million, sits empty in the U.S. The December median price of a home sold in Detroit was $7,500. . . .”

#52 Barb the proof reader at 5:24 pm — This link somewhat coincides with the preceding. — http://tinyurl.com/c22ypt
——
It appears that one EU country — Portugal — has had relatively good success by decriminalizing drugs. Are there any sensible politicians on this side of the pond taking note?

I doubt it. — http://tinyurl.com/c643n7

#71 Future Expatriate on 05.03.09 at 2:22 am

#53 said “…will at least get our money BACK if we sell it.”

Uh… no you won’t unless you plan on selling in 20 years. Haven’t you been reading? Real estate is crashing. Real estate where you have to pay rent on top of a mortgage if you have one (park fees) is crashing the hardest of all. $280,000 double-wides are only a bargain compared to ludicrously overpriced $600,000 century old one bathroom character hovels and $400,000 postage-stamp condos.

Bet you’re on leased land too that will revert before values reach the peak of last year.

No WAY will you get your money back when you sell.

#72 ally ally oxycontin free on 05.03.09 at 7:37 am

#70 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 05.03.09 at 12:50 am

In the U.S., 36 states and the District of Columbia have proposed or implemented reductions in the civil workforce. (You think customer service is poor now…). An astounding one in nine homes, 14 million, sits empty in the U.S. The December median price of a home sold in Detroit was $7,500. . . .”

Holy Seduce … Batman …. How do you square that with Art Carney’s son Mark saying, “he’s seeing hopeful signs in the economy?

Is he out of touch, OR MTTP, jest plain Tech’D?

#73 ally ally oxycontin free on 05.03.09 at 7:50 am

The Asian flu arrives in Canada—Broadcast Date: Sept. 29, 1957

“It’s been nearly 40 years since the last major outbreak of influenza swept the world, but the deadly memories still persist. Now the Asian flu, the latest viral threat to human health has reached North America and public health officials are scrambling to head off another devastating pandemic. This report from CBC Television assesses the damage across Canada and looks at what’s being done at UN headquarters in New York City.

The Asian flu (also known as the oriental flu) is believed to have originated in northern China in February 1957. It hit Canada in the fall of that year, forcing the closure of schools, public gathering places and eventually killed an estimated 2,000 people. By the time it ran its course in the spring of 1958, this strain had claimed an estimated two million lives worldwide, making it the second most fatal flu pandemic in history.”

http://archives.cbc.ca/health/disease/clips/12707/

#74 ally ally oxycontin free on 05.03.09 at 8:16 am

Flaherty sees hopeful economic signs, as central bank prepares to go ’unorthodox’

http://www.metronews.ca/halifax/canada/article/217439–flaherty-sees-hopeful-economic-signs-as-central-bank-prepares-to-go-unorthodox

‘Scuse my last … The WORD is “tetch ‘d” and yes, both O’Flairity and the MoneyHoover’s son both suffer the condition.

I think this improvisational comedy team should look for other employment.

#75 hagbard on 05.03.09 at 8:22 am

Modular houses are the future:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oz5DP-oCEpY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cz6CgkYtdE4&feature=related

#76 ally ally oxycontin free on 05.03.09 at 8:29 am

Just cain’t help but be sentimental …

http://multimedia.thestar.com/images/d1/32/672bc99c4fbe91a18c0af96e13c9.jpeg

Inspirational spectator? … You decide.

http://www.feebleminds-gifs.com/skeleton-4.gif

#77 David Bakody on 05.03.09 at 8:38 am

And as Garth has mentioned the worst is yet to come so it would appear many are reading here and spreading the true facts around Tim’s and the work place. (with overnight Western plug-ins)

Compared to what President Obama is doing in R&D funding, how would you rate the Harper government’s policies?

Excellent

12%

1099 votes
Good

11%

939 votes
Fair

8%

732 votes
Poor

21%

1828 votes
Disgraceful

48%

4305 votes

#78 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.03.09 at 9:03 am

#59 OttawaMike

You heard wrong. We have a regular Title to our home. We also pay Property Taxes. Another surprise I am sure. Congrats! You have been misled by the RE industry into their scam.

#71 Future Expatriate

Tell that to the people who have made a profit on these homes. Yes, we will be living here for the rest of our lives so all we care about is that our money is stable. That is why we call it a HOME! Still beats paying rent which has ZERO return.

Like I said ‘imbecilic public’ living with urban legends and no facts. Citiots.

#79 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.03.09 at 9:32 am

#52 Barb the proof reader

WOW! Thanks for that link Barb. Talk about amazing resolution!!!

#80 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.03.09 at 9:43 am

#20 Republic_of_Western_Canada

Absolutely right on. I look at some the POS’s built in Ontario and wouldn’t buy one for anything.

The construction would be even worse were it not for the Building Inspectors forcing them to do things to a minimum standard of compliance to the Building Code.

The next tornado that hits will show how poorly the construction has been.

The real difference between a ‘Mobile Home’ and a ‘Trailer’ is the ‘trailer is made of metal like any other trailer or RV. The ‘Mobile Home’ is made with regular 2×4 studs, double floors which truly give far better insulation than even a regular home, and everything is done in a factory where, as you pointed out, the quality control is maintained. The roof trusses are steel and have a better load rating than most homes.

#81 Maurice on 05.03.09 at 9:49 am

Garth: You keep telling us that Oil is where it is at ,investment wise. Had occassion to drive a Ford Fusion Hybrid. Ford sold 18,,000 Fusions in April. This car runs on an electric motor (or a four cylinder gas engine), powered by Batteries charged by the brakes. Under 72 km per hour no gas engine unless you are going up hill. Drove for 30 minutes on electric alone. In town, no gas. There is no sound, you keep checking at the stop lights thinking that it has stalled. No big deal I guess unless you saw the CNBC clip of Hummer 100 miles per gallon. Resor electric power train. Small gas engine charging batteries for the electric motor. The Fusion is under $27,000 I don’t know how much for the Hummer. Resor makes the power train which they will make available for numberous assemby plants. That should cut back on oil consumption, and government revenues. Cheers

#82 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.03.09 at 10:22 am

BTW, the newest sub-division in our area, and it is HUGE, is all made from modular units shipped on semi trucks and placed by crane onto the foundation. They are very well built, and all that is required after installation is the exterior siding.

This is the way homes are going to be built in the future, especially with increased fuel costs. Just figure how much fuel it takes for a construction crew to travel to and from the job site for months versus maybe five days. It also means better quality control where it really counts with the modular units truly engineered for maximum efficiency and accuracy. The units are assembled inside so no wet materials that will become moldy to worry about either.

Henry Ford started the assembly line, then the aviation industry followed suit, together with most manufacturers, and then housing followed along.

There have been some good programs on the industry on TV BTW. Check out what the new way really is.

As all we Boomers start retiring we will not be buying McMansions, instead we will be downsizing our housing needs. Smart investors will wake up to this pending market. We are also reducing our overall debt rapidly. We cleared off our LoC, several credit card accounts, and have money to enjoy life with. Do you?

Oh, and for those who have not owned a home or have not for ten years remember that there is no GST for first time home buyers. That may change next year here in Ontario if McGuilty gets his way with the HST.

Remember, buy a HOME, and plan to live in it because you have to live somewhere, unless you like the back seat of your ego priced car.

Some people talk about Freedom, others HAVE IT!

#83 Sondra on 05.03.09 at 11:03 am

#53 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.02.09 at 5:51 pm

“Personally I am DAMNED TIRED of the stereotyping by the RE slugs who want to sell landlocked overpriced homes.”

THEN YOU WROTE;

“RE people love listing them because them MOVE rapidly.”

THEN YOU WROTE:

“I am DAMNED TIRED of the stereotyping by the RE slugs who want to sell landlocked overpriced homes.”

So which is it?

Your lifestyle and choices do not need to be validated by anyone but you. It seems as though you require validation by the length and content of your blog.

When you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

#84 Sondra on 05.03.09 at 11:05 am

Ooos hit put the quote in 2 x’s. Hit the enter key before reviewing.

#85 tnl on 05.03.09 at 12:01 pm

Any forum contibutors have any insite into Sask. Real Estate. Prices don’t appear to be moving down out here.

#86 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 05.03.09 at 12:12 pm

#65 Sondra –

Like anything else, the ease of selling something depends on what condition it’s in, and finding the right target market, i.e. customer.

If for example you try to sell a broken-down highway transport tractor with air brakes to some little old lady who just wants something to buy groceries with, or to a student who just needs to go a few blocks to classes every day, it will be difficult.

Similarly, if you want to buy an old obsolete trailer with a leaky roof and mold, then find a place to park it in downtown Vancouver so you can live there, that’s brain-dead too.

The new mobile/manufactured houses now use largely the same materials and construction type as site-built stick houses, but just done way better. That means 2×6 studs, drywall, full-guage plumbing, high-grade trusses, fireplace etc, but on a very strong steel frame to keep everything square and solid during moving. Once that thing gets bolted down to a foundation, it’s not going to depreciate much, if at all.

Those houses have very high resale demand in certain areas, because the original-sale and resale price points are low enough that many people don’t need to finance them at all. They avoid the whole game of lifelong debt and indentured servitude. That’s what really makes the RE industry and banking industry hopping mad.

Finally, old perceptions die hard. That is why innovation in the house-building industry is slow, and is why people are still way to hung up on what constitutes ‘chattel’ and what constitutes ‘real estate’.

#87 Live Within Your Means on 05.03.09 at 12:18 pm

#53 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.02.09 at 5:51 pm

Agree those Manufactured Homes seem to be well built in comparison to most of the current homes built on site. Have watched numerous programs, mostly on PBS, about how they are built.

“We bought a Manufactured Home last Fall. Love it, paid a reasonable price and will at least get our money BACK if we sell it. It is plenty enough space for us, as well as overnight guests. We have great mature neighbors as well as youbng couples with children who conduct themselves far better than the party animals in most sub-divisions. ”

Our subdivision is approx 30+ yrs., with mature trees, VERY quiet, boomers (mostly retired now) and young families in the extended section of our street.. Our older section has lot sizes mostly around 12K sq. ft., a few double lots but lots assessed the same which is incomprehensible IMO. New extension of our st. lot sizes are about half the older section. We bought in ’91 and paid it off ’97 with 25% down . I’d never buy a condo again, even tho the condo act has been modified. Our first place was a condo townhouse and, unfortunately, the President and Board appointed Manager were ripping off our corp. My husband and I spent days going through the books, at the home of the Manager. President was hiring teens to shovel, etc. under the table, pretended he was doing it, and charged double for his so called services. Manager worked for a large corp., used corp’s resources (photocopying, etc.) and charged condo owners – pocketing the money. Spoke to the Auditor. He basically agreed that ‘there was something rotten in the state of Denmark’ but could only audit the figures that were gven to him. BTW, he also worked in our Prov. Finance Dept. at the time. So much for audits. Sorta like our current govt. who will likely do everything they can do to get rid of Kevin Page, whom Harpie appointed as part of his NOW NON-ACCOUNTABILITY gubermnt. So much for TRANSPARANCY. Its now all about SECRECY..

Glad Bill that you finally bought a home you and your family will be happy to live in as a home rather than just an investment. Our house is a home. We are also a 5 minute walk from many lakes.

Wish our Fin. guy actually made us money. Our investments are down 40 or 50%. Unfortunately, we’d lose more if we got out, tho we did change to a lower risk scenario last fall. We should have done it earlier, I know. Thank goodness we’ve lots of cash BUT with basically 0% we’ll lose. Oh well, we’re squirrels & the pantry is full. We just had another full cord delivered this am for $230. a cord. We paid $205. last spring & were told the increase was due to gas prices :-). Funny how prices never go down in relation to current oil prices. :-) Unfortunately we live in a regulated gas price prov. and its only the govt. that benefits. Oh well, we’ll probably see an election here soon, and hopefully our fiddler can go back home to play Out on the Mira, like his predecessor, John Buchanan, our biggest spender ever.

#88 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 05.03.09 at 12:45 pm

#60 Jordan – News flash!

It’s always been shitty for most people that way. That’s why they invented unions a hundred years ago, and invented UIC in the early part of the 20th century, and invented medical, engineering, and law associations, and developed oligarchies 2000 years ago to ensure their friends and relatives have it better than others.

So that those who could, could struggle into a position assuring a predictable normal life, or at least a less brutal one.

That’s also the reason for the insane explosion of voluntary personal and government debt over the last thirty years. Without it, the suppression of WAGE inflation by capital holders over the last quarter century would have left most workers much poorer from a consumption point of view.

Of course Canadian society is pushing people into universities – because it provides the university system with lots of fresh meat and associated tuition and subsidized income, and because it provides lots of excess trained labour for certain industries, and because of lottery-like chances for some to actually get a decent life/career. More sublimely it provides people a chance to pursue interesting stuff and develop their minds a bit before they have to go out and flip burgers or sing advertising ditties or work ‘help desk’ to cover student loans.

Nowadays, multi-ticket tradesmen are in a much better position if they are a mobile and if they can manage business cycles, than some guy getting a BComm then struggling for a CA and hoping for a mind-numbing job as an accountant at 30K a year before going postal and strangling his wife.

#89 My_view on 05.03.09 at 12:52 pm

I agree with some of the things that Garth has to say, however Garth seems to think the world is going to end and his yearly projections are off. Not a good way to live. It’s interesting how Garth will post the Howe Street Link when its bad news but the day he spoke of good times, no link. You know the saying, Bad News is Great News. Plus Garth, you bought a home (POS) what are your intentions, flip, investment property, or maybe a casino? I know not our business, but ironically this site started on real estate. Then there’s the bad mouthing of the blue collar workers, sheesh. Talk/write about all the waste that’s on the HILL. I know, maybe it’s in the new book. And speaking about climate change, Garth you are a Jet setter with all your book tours and then there is all your properties. Although you have limited/reduced your carbon foot print, it’s still a big foot. The message I get from Garth is People don’t buy anything except my books, generators, seeds and solar panels.

You’re going to really miss not being invited to my bunker. — Garth

#90 [email protected] on 05.03.09 at 1:14 pm

EEEKKKK!!!

China has ‘canceled US credit card’: lawmaker

http://rawstory.com/news/afp/China_has_canceled_US_credit_card_l_04302009.html

#91 David on 05.03.09 at 1:28 pm

dhg, home prices in a normal non bubble market, are tied to incomes, rents and the general inflationary rate. Rising or falling interest rates determine the acceptable level of principal on the property that can be sustained by median incomes. Saying that Winnipeg has the cheapest homes prices in Western Canada begs the question of being cheap in relation to what incomes or other communities? Property values increasing at 15% annually when little is else in the equation changes indicates misaligned fundamentals, no matter what. It is really near impossible to convince people glowing from the wealth effect of unrealised property gains that something is amiss.
No one is dissing the Peg’ by saying there was an unsustainable real estate bubble.

#92 Dan in Victoria on 05.03.09 at 1:37 pm

Interesting discussion on these manufactured modular homes.I can’t count how many stick frame houses i’ve worked on over the years but its up there.Got a call from a buddy of mine who lives in the states asking if I could help out a friend of his here in BC to get her modular house up and going( Peak of the boom she could’nt get anyone)great just what i need.Any how went and did the job,was very impressed with the Quality and the price she paid,the’ve come a long way over the years.You could not tell when it was finished that it was a factory job.So I ended up doing another one that was more along what I had seen before (long rectangular box stuck together) it also wasn’t too bad but no where near as good as the other.It was cheaply built.I asked what they paid for it,well under a hundred grand appliances,etc.included.I can see changes coming in the construction industry here,there is no way you can build and compete with this.Time will tell though.

#93 Live Within Your Means on 05.03.09 at 2:17 pm

BTW, does anyone with an intellictual IQ greater than 1 actually watch this pgm. I don’t even know what it’s called as I use my remote to bypass it, like most stations. Very little TV worth watcing nowadays. Yet we are forced to purcase pkgs of 4 or 5 when we want only one. My husband agreed to try another pkg. , suppodedly hi def. I’ll be cancelling it this week.

#94 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.03.09 at 2:20 pm

#83 Sondra

You look/sound like a disgruntled RE agent to moi!

It is BOTH! There are RE’s who are willing to take a lower priced listing and those who are not. We watch the units sell usually within 1 week to a month here IF the sellers have a realistic price. They are well-maintained unlike some ‘parks’.

Look at the Mesa, AZ market. Hundreds if not thousands of ‘Mobile Homes’ many owned by Canadian Snow Birds. The City of Mesa allows the ‘parks’ mingled in with other subdivisions because they understand people need a place to live and they bring their MONEY to the local economy. Real money they invest and spend locally.

#95 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.03.09 at 2:25 pm

#83 Sondra

As to validation of my lifestyle, you obviously need such a thing. I do not. I suppose you were all upset Michelle Obama wore those expensive tennis shoes to the Food Bank too?

Some people have a life, others are just Sheeple. Can you say Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa?

Free and thinking people act for their own good, not to impress some wannabe losers that worship ‘things’.

We all know the RE industry thrives on ego driven emotionalism and BS! You chose to, now face the consequences of your ideology.

#96 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.03.09 at 2:43 pm

#88 Republic_of_Western_Canada

You nailed that one right. The so-called ‘education system’ is a multi-billion dollar industry created with the help of politicians who write laws mandating certification for everything. Canada is overtly obsessed with certification, and then they ‘fix’ the tests to limit who can be certified.

Who ever heard of grading on a curve for a professional exam like the Paralegal for instance? You either know it and make 70% or you do not and re-take the exam. Not nowadays, God forbid people might inundate a professional market. Talk about wage and price controls, protectionism, unions, etc.? Hell, this province has mastered the Screw You and makes unions look like amateurs. Just look at nurses versus doctors; lawyers versus paralegals. There is so much unnecessary protectionism to assure the Old Boys can maintain their gross share all the while creating serious shortages in the process.

It used to be that college or university was reserved for those seeking professional status. We got our education completely in K-12. Not anymore, the schools are trying to mimic what used to be college level training, and then the poor kids come out illiterate, unable to do the most basic tasks like manage a chequeing account, or anything else.

Grade 9-12 is not being taught in college and it is not FREE! In fact it is more like required slavery for the younger generations. Who is making the money at their expense? The banks, investment companies, and universities/colleges like Georgian, Nipissing, etc.

People used to learn by OJT and worked their way into a profession, but not anymore. There are few Mentors left to train the next generation. They have all been replaced by some ‘school’ charging for the knowledge and much of it is out of date, bogus, and excessive.

Hell, even car sales persons have to be licensed now under OMVIC. A lot of good that has done I am sure. LMAO!

People come out with their Diploma or Degree in hand thinking they know something only to find out they know little that is real. How sad. How criminal! And then in debt when they need to be free. No wonder the current younger generations feel screwed. I would too.

The ‘instructors’ teaching many courses are those who got laid off from the same profession they teach. What sense does that make? Creating more classes for a job that is downsized already.

#97 Eduardo on 05.03.09 at 3:01 pm

RoWC Re 88:

People have no business going to university and taking an arts degree to expand their mind and expecting to get a career out of it. It drives me insane when people say that everyone should go to university and be guaranteed a career when they graduate.

If you take nursing, law, medecine, education, engineering… then maybe you should expect a little more, but people who have BAs and BScs in a whack of random Soc, Anthro, Phil, Psyc and Bio, Chem, Phys, Geo courses respectively aren’t really training for anything.

I agree that more people should be going into trades and they shouldn’t be promoting university to everyone though. Trades are also widely viewed as a lesser, more basic skill/path which should change.

I honestly think moral hazard is warping society and will continue to do so in the future because people have the wrong perceptions about jobs. If you ask a high school kid if they would rather be a geol/geophys/engg/tech of some sort or an entrepreneur/trader/finance guy, most would say the latter and this is fundamentally because people see it as an easy way to get rich… It’s a problem with the system and it’s exacerbated by all the bailouts, etc.

#98 Sondra on 05.03.09 at 3:34 pm

#86 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 05.03.09 at 12:12 pm

“Those houses have very high resale demand in certain areas”

“people are still way to hung up on what constitutes ‘chattel’ and what constitutes ‘real estate’.”

Irrelevant of how well the mobile home is built, it is almost always on someone else’s land. The point being, you are not the master of your domain, you are not in control when you do not own the ground beneath your trailer.

The last few years of the building boom has displaced a huge number of people who bought a mobile home. They wronging thought that they could stay there for years. (they couldn’t sell at that point either).

Bottom line is they are marketed as real estate, unless they own the land under them, in reality they are not real estate, they are simply a lifestyle.

#99 Glenn on 05.03.09 at 3:50 pm

38 Basil Fawlty on 05.02.09 at 12:46 pm

Sorry, I have been out of town, but here is some more “proof” re: China’s purchase of gold.

“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value — zero.” — Voltaire

Sir, let me state again that the only people interested in gold are deranged conspiracy theorists and, in this case, upstart nations with no understanding of or place in history. China, for example!

Please take your medication and seek medical attention immediately.

P.S. Don’t forget your tin foil hat.

#100 Future Expatriate on 05.03.09 at 4:10 pm

Don’t get me wrong. There’s nothing wrong with manufactured homes that a 70% price crash won’t cure.

But I agree with one of your points. Most new housing (after all the new home builders go out of business, and they are and they will) will be factory built. The problem is, there will be no demand whatsoever with a glut on the market of used homes at pennies on the dollar driven by foreclosures, POS, and demographics.

Talk to the factories in Arizona to see how business has been going for them. I have.

Or to the five retailers in Las Vegas who have disappeared without a trace.

#101 Irene on 05.03.09 at 4:11 pm

#53. You are welcome Bill. How about having free water, irrigation, Community center with a pool table, Kitchen ,library, hot Tub, gym and the hospital, arena, curling club and outdoor pool, tennis courts, ball fields, within a five minute walking distance. Free garbage pick up, cheap taxes and BTW, the value of ours has gone up over 50% since we settled in. I could sell it tomorrow if I so choose which I don’t. I have friendly neighbours who would keep an eye on my home when I go away and not have to worry about paying them to do it. Thank you very much but I do love my home, my community and I do know most of the families in this community. I would not give up my home for any bodies regardless of how much they are worth or how much they cost.

You can all have your $500.00 homes with all your mortgages,2 or 3 thousand dollar taxes, metered water, I live by a very nice golf course, I can get in my golf cart and go golfing 7 days a week if I so choose.

I get to see the deer walking freely in my park, and I am happy here satisfied that we made the right choice and are not mortgaged to the hilt.

Cheers

#102 Irene on 05.03.09 at 4:12 pm

OOPs $ 500.000 homes.

#103 Irene on 05.03.09 at 4:17 pm

#65 Sondra, I do do agree with you at all. I speak from experience not hearsay. When a unit comes up for sale, we have snowbirds crusing our streets looking for, any for sale signs and they go very fast.I don’t know where you live, whether you are a RS agent or what but I do know in this area, and beleive me, they do sell and that’s a fact.

#104 jess on 05.03.09 at 4:47 pm

banks don’t fail they just get moved
the oracle speaks in contradictory terms
http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2009/05/02/news.buffett2.050209.cnnmoney/

#105 jess on 05.03.09 at 5:24 pm

Simmons, home to 4,700 students, opened the 66,500-square- foot (6,200-square-meter) center in January, two months before the U.S. stock market hit its lowest point in 12 years. Even before the ribbon cutting, enrollment in the management school had been dropping.

Now, the vacant halls are reminders of the new math confounding U.S. colleges. Students, pummeled by scarce loans and savings plans that have fallen as much as 40 percent, are heading for less expensive schools.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aoglHAxZffTI&refer=home

#106 Live Within Your Means on 05.03.09 at 6:21 pm

#100 Irene on 05.03.09 at 4:11 pm

Good for you Irene. You seem to be much happier than most of these posters who seem to spend more time talking about the market than about their quality of life with family and friends.

#107 rory on 05.03.09 at 6:57 pm

#101 Irene:

Metered water – we all use to much, carelessly. It should be pay as you go.

Free garbage pu …cool I have never meet a garbageman , his truck, his gas, etc and a landfill that operated and worked for free.

Question for you – Do you own your land or just rent it?

#108 Sondra on 05.03.09 at 6:59 pm

Wow, pointing that owning a trailer on someone else’s land isn’t a good investment creates such animosity.

The point is, it’s not really real estate when the owner of the land can tell you to relocate.

Most owners of the “Parks” are holding until they can sell to a developer. Until that time they make good money on collecting the rent, or maintenance.

It’s purely a lifestyle choice.

#109 Future Expatriate on 05.03.09 at 7:08 pm

#99- Glen, don’t you have some worthless stock to push on some dumb sucker?

“Sir, let me state again that the only people interested in gold are deranged conspiracy theorists and, in this case, upstart nations with no understanding of or place in history. China, for example!”

Uh, China is one of the oldest civilizations on the planet. So much for your demonstration of absolute and utter ignorance.

I wouldn’t trade my tin foil cap for your dunce cap any day of the week.

#110 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 05.03.09 at 7:16 pm

#72 ally ally oxycontin free at 7:37 am — “. . . Mark saying, “he’s seeing hopeful signs in the economy? Is he out of touch, OR MTTP, jest plain Tech’D?”

An exquisite collection of questions, none of which I am intelligent enough to answer.

Except to wonder aloud — was it not Mark Carney who engineered the IT swindle, letting the Dynamic Duo of Stevie “Babyface” Harper and Bugsy “Malone” Flaherty make all public statements that ” . . . the CPC will NEVER tax IT’s”?

To a large extent, they didn’t. They carried out orders from The Unseen Ones, those behind the scenes who call the shots as to how Canada is run. The rest is simply rhetorical bull.

Now Carney, in collusion with Bernanke and / or Paulson expect us to believe, as true sheeple should that we MAY have turned the corner financially. Based on what? Because they say so, but without providing evidence?

BTW, is the American social security system broke, just as ours will be in a decade or so? Well, let’s check. The U.S. link is http://tinyurl.com/ckppv6

For us Canuckleheads, check out Garth’s books, especially 2015. There ain’t enough babies being born to take over from us when we all become decrepit dinosaurs, so yes, our system is following the Yanks!

The link I posted a few days back, saying that Obama’s gang was investigating the possibility of euthanasia for the elderly sure reduces govts.’ responsibility for paying US Social Security / CPP / OAS / GIS obligations, ‘coz none of us will be here anywayz!
——
#101 Irene at 4:11 pm — “I get to see the deer walking freely . . .”.

We never fenced our backyard off, as deer still wander through and rest under trees from the sun.

Everyone else is now animal-free (their choice), but it’s a nice sight for the grandchildren to see animals in their natural habitat.
——
Ahhh yes. Foreclosures, banks as condo rental agents and new property owners caught with their pants down. And still, the masses of sheeple bbbaaahhhhh along, oblivious to the highs and lows, comings and goings of life.

What of Stress Tests for people? — http://tinyurl.com/c5r7zz
——
Further Fiscal Fiascos — http://tinyurl.com/ce6qzb /\ http://tinyurl.com/daflsx

#111 the Coming Depression on 05.03.09 at 7:25 pm

Garth even Warren Buffet is reading my site. lol. He must get first hand knowledge of the coming destruction. Perhaps you may also change your views? Golds going up and Inflation with it!
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/02/news/newsmakers/warren_buffett.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009050213

#112 Irene on 05.03.09 at 7:25 pm

#106, Thanks for your comments. I am very happy living where I do and a correction to Sondra, I do not agree with her and I’ll take living here stress free over anything that’s out there. No chlorine in my water either. No bills, enough money to pay the bills Eat out once in a while. Lots of good friends. What more can a person want or need.

#113 Barb the proof reader on 05.03.09 at 7:47 pm

53 Bill NAM when you uprooted from the m’skokers did you remain in the area or change provinces. Noneless, yer new land sounds just as wonderful was da old.

#114 Barb the proof reader on 05.03.09 at 7:59 pm

Hi Irene,

I gotta ask, where are you living. Not specifically, but location makes such a big difference. Well-set-up communities are wonderful places, whether modular homes, town homes or just a well-designed new neighbourhood community. Price means nothing these days, and don’t stop at $500,000 as my best pals keep referring to their own new neighbourhood as a millionaires ghetto (the ones who paid $1.5m).

You are lucky neighbourhood-wise, but you are also lucky to be level-headed. You and Bill NAM share an enjoyment that not everyone gets.. you worked hard, you made good decisions. My husband loves the saying “the value of life is not having what you want, but wanting what you have”. Good decisions.. and knowing oneself.. leads to having all you need.. and enjoying it too.

#115 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 05.03.09 at 8:16 pm

#98 Sondra –

You’re missing two key concepts.

First, fully half of all manufactured (‘mobile’) house buyers do own their own land to put it on; particularly in rural areas. They buy mostly for price/performance advantages, convenience, and speed.

But, they still have a mobility card they can play if they want to keep the land and put a different house on it whether larger or smaller, without suffering the pure loss of demolition or extreme expense of modifications and expansions.

Or, they can move the house over to another part of the property that they discovered has fewer mosquitoes. Of maybe they want to build a barn on the house site because maybe they’ve acquired another quarter for grazing and the house spot would be ideal for the barn because of its relative location. Haven’t you ever rearranged furniture?

Second, your concept of absolute ownership is an illusion that has been milked to death by the RE industry. You’re still liable for property taxes determined by someone else. You can’t even build an advanced house with interesting materials anymore in most cases because it’s “not an accepted architectural style”. Try to have a really nice loud rock & roll pool party on your urban property from midnight until 6 am and see how long that lasts.

Furthermore, if the local authorities feel like flushing all residents out of their house into the local arena for a week, due to potential sinkholes, or distant forest fire, or train derailment, or even search for a fugitive, see how much ‘ownership’ you have then.

If some developer with big cash backing wants to build a big complex over your property, they can easily bleed you to death in court until you capitulate to get you out of there. Same with city or provincial governments who want to build a road through your kitchen. Not very much ‘ownership’ then, is there?

If you’re dumb enough to get married, then when the wife figures the pups are old enough to not need a meal ticket anymore the odds are exactly 50/50 nowadays she’ll sue you for divorce to grab the house. ‘Ownership’? Nope, not here either.

Finally, we’ve all seen how literally millions are being forced out of “their property” by banks and financial institutions for missing mortgage payments. Developers and financial institutions have cranked those prices for chipboard doghouses up so far that most new buyers will never really ‘own’ their own property. That’s either for the depreciating stick-house part, or the land part.

No such thing as real ‘ownership’ of real estate, sorry. It might own you though.

#116 dbg on 05.03.09 at 8:30 pm

#97 Eduardo

Come on. Everybody makes choices for how they want to be educated and what they want to pursue as a career. That’s what is great about any country in the G20. We have choices and these choices lead to tech and improvements in society and the world. Arts degrees, trades and……..so on are all great. Don’t pigeon hole certain careers. We all don’t need to be one skill Bills.

Wide strokes for lazy folks.

#117 dbg on 05.03.09 at 9:45 pm

#91 David

I don’t disagree with price increases that are out of alignment. But even with the prices the way they are properties in The Peg are still viable for rental income and reasonable cap rates. How can you disagree and basically state I have my head in the clouds. The first post stated that the cap rate is still good in Winnipeg. Trying arguing that point. You lose. Your hedging all your bets that rates will go up and real estate in Winnipeg is so overvalued that it will depreciate rapidly. Do these factors change the rents collected with a 1% vacancy rate. I don’t think so. So….. yes to service the mortgage if rates go up your payments will go up and thus reduce your cap rate. But maybe not if your mortgage is 20 year amortization you can stretch it out to 25 so that you are still in a positive cash situation.
The problem with the vast majority of bloggers here is that one size fits all. Rates are going up and everybody has a 40 year mortgage. It just isn’t the case.

Like I said before wide strokes for lazy folks.
If everybody thinks that real estate sucks then why do you keep spending your days on this blog.

Go rent and buy gold and get a gun because if that’s really how bad it’s going to get……..the army will be knocking on your door for more.

#118 Davinci on 05.03.09 at 10:28 pm

#99 Glenn

So your proof that paper is money is that anyone that says different is a nut including china and all central banks around the world.

Thus central bankers where tin foil hats for not trusting the money they print?

OK with such a solid argument, I’m convinced.
——————

I can’t help but notice that no one argues for our debt based monetary system where debt is money and all debt can never be repaid. People who disagree with hard money advocates simply ignore the fact that the mathematics of the system points to a bad outcome, also over 100,000 books including the bible point out the folly of such madness. Yet hard money supporters are called nuts? lol

Paper money supporters don’t argue against gold, they simply attack the person talking about gold, hardly ever is there a coherent discussion of the merits of fractional reserve banking.

Time to research gold!

#119 mike from oakville on 05.03.09 at 10:55 pm

Garth – shame on you for using the trailer park boys with a caption of “downwardly mobile” – those guys are up and coming!

#120 LS on 05.03.09 at 11:26 pm

@Maurice

You are either misinformed…

>> Under 72 km per hour no gas engine unless you are going up hill.

Completely impossible. There’s this little thing called thermodynamics that make this impossible in a car that doesn’t get externally charged. You won’t get nearly enough energy from braking. The Fusion hybrid runs its engine plenty under 72km/h, even when there aren’t any hills.

>> Drove for 30 minutes on electric alone

Then the dealership must have charged it before you took it out, or you misjudged the time, or you drove it mostly downhill.

The ford fusion gets worse fuel mileage than the Prius, and the Prius can’t do any of the things you claim.

Sure hybrids help with the oil supply problem, but not nearly enough, and the Fusion isn’t a particularly good example.

#121 Sondra on 05.03.09 at 11:30 pm

#115 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 05.03.09 at 8:16 pm

I agree if you own the land under you, then put what ever you want, trailer, tree house, mansion, what ever makes makes you happy.

I agree that owning land is subject to government intervention, however, that is a very low risk for the most part. If you really want to debate it, we have no rights. Just privileges, as the government can take everything, your money, your house, your citizenship, everything.

But buying a trailer and putting it on someone else’s land is still not real estate. No matter what you call it, it is what it is. A trailer.

And you identified another aspect, being dumb enough to get married. Yup did that, 24 years ago. Bought 3 houses that are almost paid in full, owe less than some people pay for their cars, and the tenants pay me. There you have it, I’m dumb for a 45 year old.

Now to enjoy my glass of wine with my husband, being the good wife I am I’ll let him know how dumb I am.
Poor guy.

#122 Glenn on 05.04.09 at 4:06 am

I would like to thank Future Expatriate for proving once and for all that the average Canadian is absolutely bereft of any sense of humor.

How you could take my post seriously is beyond all comprehension. My hats off to you, sir!

#123 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.04.09 at 9:00 am

#113 Barb the proof reader

We moved a little south, about 40 minutes. Oddly enough, the RE market is rather flexible. There is the Muskoka market which has very high tax rates due to the low density, high priced RE there. Governments still need to maintain things and the ratepayers foot the bill.

When one leaves the District of Muskoka they then enter Simcoe County. Now if they move into a ‘muncipal’ area like Barrie or Orillia they are right back into an RE market that is very much like the GTA, but not as insane.

However, by careful research and talking with friends we found that the moment we got outside the ‘municipal boundaries, i.e., city, and into the ‘township area’, the tax rates dropped dramatically along with RE prices.

We got a perfect place about 6-7 Kms from the major shopping centre, a mere 8-10 minutes into the city, but in the country where the property tax rates are almost nothing.

We calculated the TOTAL COSTS of ownership including mortgage, insurance, utilities, maintenance, property taxes, fire protection, water quality, emergency response time, etc. We have all the benefits of living in the ‘urban area’ but actually live in the country where the air is clean, the noise is basically non-existent other than a few bellowing cattle or bull mouse in heat. LOL

One of the big issues was an effective Homeowners Association. We have that too which gives the homeowners serious control over the land lease firm we all deal with. There are, in fact two primary setups on the land lease for such developments. The most common is a company owns the land, is responsible for its maintenance and utilities, etc. The other is the homeowners collectively own the land and the same applies.

We did some checking and the banks will gladly lend money for the first but are rather hesitant to lend for the community owned land situation.

Before we even made the first inquiry to find a property we went and got pre-authorized by our bank for a mortgage requesting what we knew from experience would be a comfortable monthly amount. we decided we like our lifestyle and that the ‘house’ would serve us, not be our Master via the mortgage. Then we got online over a month’s time and perused what was avaialble and researched the area by talking with people we know who lived in the various areas.

Then when we had the facts we contacted a realtor, gave her the details of price range and characteristics. We spent ONE day actually looking at the pre-selected offerings. We had reduced the task to a specific set of things we knew were important to us and finished it in a matter of hald a day. We chose the one we wanted and made an offer the very same day and it was accepted within 24 hours. The closing was scheduled for 5 weeks after acceptance and the move went like clockwork smooth as can be with no hassles, stress, emotional based silliness, etc.

We spent the five weeks before the move cleaning out everything we did not need or want as we knew exactly how much space we had to make use of in the new home. We packed it all ourselves and saved hundreds in labour costs. When moving day came the truck was loaded in a mere four hours and we were in our new home, albeit with the usual unpacking facing us, that afternoon. No motels, meals, or anything else required. We had dinner in our new home that very night.

That is what planning and research, and a lot of prior experience provided us. A joyful move to our new HOME. We love it.

#124 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.04.09 at 9:13 am

#115 Republic_of_Western_Canada

Two words regarding ‘ownership of land ‘Emminent Domain’, and when that won’t work then come the pressure tactics.

My attitude is simple. I came onto this earth with nothing and am unable to take one thing with me when I leave. The ancient Druids, aboriginals, and other sane people realize they have no right to own land. It belongs to everyone. We may get to use it for a short while, but it is staying right where it is plus or minus any haulage done by mankind.

Those who think they have control such a commodity are delusional. When Mother Nature forecloses they can try taking her to court. Like George Carlin said ‘People build their homes next to an active volcano and then ask why they have lava in their living room.’

Ask the people, and especially the land owners in Mexico City how much ‘in control they felt’ after the last major earthquake. Heck, ask the people in Manitoba along the Red River how in control they felt this Spring.

I think the old concept of Crown Land makes the most sense. The land is for all the people’s use. Unfortunately, we still live in medieval times with feudal landlords, etc. Now, when it comes to maintianing, i.e., stewardship of the land, then it is not a bad idea to have a knowledgeable organization managing it for posterity’s sake. We have both the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment doing that very thing.

The average person has neither the time, money, or skills to be good stewards. They are too busy trying to keep their head above water from the debt they incurred outdoing the Jones.

But some people love the delusion they live in of being ‘in control.’

#125 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.04.09 at 9:32 am

#98 Sondra

Oh, I see. So, how much control of the land does a condo, rowhouse, townhouse owner have? Try changing the exterior colour or style. Try doing anything outside of living in a predefined three dimensional space and tell us how that worked out for you. Yet you still would call that ‘real estate.’

You have a double standard that illustrates the mentality of your industry. ‘It is white if we call it white for our purposes, but black if we do not benefit from the situation as we want.’ I call that hypocrisy.

#126 Irene on 05.04.09 at 9:55 am

Rory, we rent the lot. Own the unit. The rent is reasonable and covers all the stuff that I mentioned. The taxes we paid more than made up the rent we payed owning our home.Barb, we live in the Southern Okanagan. Right next to a very nice golf course. What more can we ask for. We moved from Campbell River five years ago. We owned our home there. We would never buy another home unless we won the lottery and even then, probably not. A house is a home and so is my modular home. We are not snobs like some people I know.We fully intend to live there for the rest of our lives. And happy to do so. Dept free, doing the things we love, fifteen miles to the US border, cheaper gas, man its a good life here.living in my rusty old shack some of you seem to think it is. LOL

Have a great week everyone.

#127 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.04.09 at 10:07 am

BTW, how many condos, towhnhouses, etc. have windows on all sides? We have natural and healthy SUNLIGHT in every room. Great natrual ventilation too. We don’t have to ‘share’ the viruses and bacteria of our neighbors in the air we breath because we have our very own sepearte supply called Mother Nature.

#128 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.04.09 at 10:17 am

One last key point. How many ‘homeowners’ put away money for needed maintenance? Do you have the ability to pay for critical repairs?

#129 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.04.09 at 10:41 am

#126 Irene

Yes, we poor souls who live in these rusty old ‘trailers’ sure seem miserable compared to those struggling everyday at a job they hate to pay for a house they could never really afford with property taxes supporting governments that don’t know they even exist, after commuting in traffic that will take years off their lives and give them Coronary Artery Disease from the constant stress.

Maybe that is their plan? Live in constant stress, then die before the reality becomes too much to bear.

I guess we are deprived because we don’t have to listen to Jack Hammers and pile drivers, and backup alarms all day and night too? We also are not isolated causing Cabin Fever in the winter because we live in a real community.

Oh, and my horrid neighbors who I speak to whenever I see them, and I mean have a real conversation, watch our place when we are away, and we their’s. Such a horrid community of decent people who know what respect is and all that terrible stuff. Our roads were always plowed this winter and following the plow came the big tractor snow blower that cleared the streets to full width and our driveways piling the snow onto the yard areas.

Our daughter gets her driveway blocked everytime the City Plow goes by and they have no free area to pile the snow in because there is only about 3 feet between their houses. That is when the city they live in (Barrie) decides to clear their sub-division street.

We should have a good old sob party I think. Maybe some good wine (we can afford the good stuff when we want it) to go with the tears, eh? Man, I am so miserable I am always smiling. :-)

Have a great day there in Rust Hell. I know we will. LOL

#130 Barb the proof reader on 05.04.09 at 12:05 pm

“A joyful move to our new HOME. We love it.”

Thanks Bill, a valuable brief on how to chose, and how to move.

I have some recollection of the area from childhood and from family friends.

Good to know there’s a right way, a smart way, to get into a location like that. Well done.

#131 Barb the proof reader on 05.04.09 at 12:23 pm

#126 “What more can we ask for.”

Irene,
It sounds idyllic. Calgary pals are retiring to various spots, some I suppose quite a bit more north like Predator Ridge. Near-border spots, Creston for example, also seem to be favourites. I will take your and Bill’s advice under consideration on how to pick the right retirement nest.

Hey, you’re in wine country! Now that’s the good life.

#132 Irene on 05.04.09 at 1:07 pm

You are welcome Barb. People that say they own the land are scarce. The banks own the land and their homes. They hold the morgages which some will never ever make the last payment to realistically own their homes and their land oun-utright. Just because you signed the papers doesn’t mean it can’t be taken away.

yep, wine country it is. The sad part is that we see fruit orchards being torn down and replaced by vinyards. Expect for your fruit to be a whole lot more expensive now. I live in the wine Capital of Canada. I see what’s going on and am saddened by it all. I actually love the food better than the wines. I think I’ll plant a garden in my yard and grow my own food.

I think I’ll go out now and polish my hubcaps while I have a glass of wine.

Cheers

#133 Future Expatriate on 05.04.09 at 1:40 pm

#122- That’s because I’m an unfortunate American LOL….

I DID get the humor in your latest post on the newest thread, but I think some who don’t follow the link will miss it.

I see DaVinci, another in our goldbug club, apparently didn’t get it either. It just goes to show that paper wasps’ arguments are so nonsensical, even when you over-the-top try to satirize them, it just looks like another paper-pusher post.

Apologies.

#134 Future Expatriate on 05.04.09 at 1:48 pm

Trailers are wonderful… until they cost more than $95,000. And that’s for the best double-wide you can buy, and price everything else downward accordingly from there.

Then they’re merely crash and burn ripoffs, and a lifetime sentence. As everyone will discover soon enough.

Glad you folks enjoy them so much, for you’ll be in them until they gurney you out. I’ve seen them sitting unsold for more than two years in Vancouver. And at prices a quarter of what idiots are asking on Vancouver Island.

#135 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.04.09 at 1:57 pm

#130 Barb the proof reader

You are most welcome. Glad I could be of assistance.

#136 Bill-Muskoka (NAM) on 05.04.09 at 5:07 pm

#134 Future Expatriate

Vancouver is NOT the model of intelligent RE thought to follow. Afterall, people there suffer from SADD (Seasonal Affective Depression Disorder) and too much Mellow Blue in the air. LOL

Here we function on a little more realistic basis. As to being gurneyed out…Well, everyone will be sooner or later. Good connection to have is the local funeral home director and an investment in a burial/crypt/mausoleum plot.

Now that is what I call REAL ESTATE because that will the one REAL one you will spend the rest of your earthbound days in. The alternative, of course, is to Go Green and be cremated having your ashes perform some good for the soil. Also saves on fertilizer and tomb flowers expense for your family.

That is the one form of Estate Planning most fail to do.

#137 Cory in Winnipeg on 05.05.09 at 10:00 pm

The reason why we are having a global recession is because of global housing bubbles. People have no more disposable income now that the cost of housing has increased nearly 500% in some areas of the world. NO MORE DISPOSABLE INCOME=RECESSION. The Bank of Canada had no choice but to lower rates and there they will stay. The average Canadian home owner is saving $700 per month with the new low rates. That’s huge! It will be years (10yrs) before the rates ever go up and when they do, it will be minimal. Don’t get me wrong…the banks like to make money but to raise rates and pop the property bubble would be financial suicide. Lowering rates in the U.S. didn’t work because the damage was already done but the banks caught it in time in Canada and it just might work. Prices will continue to correct in Canada but I don’t think a crash is likely to happen…..25% decrease would be a crash for some.