Krunched in Kelowna

kelowna11

The doctor is IN.

Our first patient of the day is Paul, a 40-something divorced guy with a fancy new house, no wife and a honking big mortgage. In Kelowna, to boot. He’s been following this blog (hence the divorce), and now worries about the local housing market and what to do about his debt and his future.

“I am considering 2 options; (1) Selling my home for about 500K and buying an older home for 100-125k less, thereby eliminating mortgage debt, or (2) Selling and then renting for 12-18 months to see where the market goes. Buy back in once we hit bottom????

Either way, I am uncomfortable now with such a high mortgage. I originally intended to build the house, live in it for 2 years and sell it for a profit. 2 years has now come and my house has devalued approximately 100k in the last 18 months since building it here in Kelowna and I am worried it will continue to decline. While realtors will tell you , everything is fine…..we have reached the bottom…..things are starting to move…blah…blah…blah. I don’t believe it for a second.

I was just curious to hear your opinions on the real estate market and economy in the central Okanagan for the coming months and years. People say we will be fine hear in Kelowna, because it; a destination area, people will always want to live and invest here, so we won’t be affected as much as the rest of Canada. Again…I don’t believe this….Vancouver too, is a destination place and look what is happening there. Anyways, if you could give me some REAL insight….I would greatly appreciate it. I want to do the right thing based on sound information. Thanks for your time.”

Well, Paul, experience is a great teacher. In your case it should teach you that the era of the big McMansion on Lake Okanagan is kaput. The fact you have lost $100,000 in the last two years is telling. So is the average of 97 days that it now takes to find a buyer, or the 30% bump up in active listings. Or the 50% drop in sales YOY. Or prices now falling by about 1% a month, while it takes 75% longer to flog a house than it did last Spring.

This is why realtors have little credibility left – pumping the market when everyone can see reality splayed before them. Kelowna may be a great place to live (with some of the hottest waitresses in the nation), but its local economy can hardly sustain the housing bubble created there. Overvalued. Over-inflated. Hyped and obese. This market is destined to lose more altitude, and there are no more convoys of cash-soaked Boomer refugees from Mississauga in RVs, bombing down Highway 97.

So, Paul, bail. And why trade one devaluing piece of property for another, unless you plan to stay there until this blows over and prices recover, which could be a decade. Or maybe never. Hell, you can rent a 3-bedroom house in Kelowna these days for $1,500 a month. Do so, and in a year you’ll feel like a genius.

This is the time to sell, now that the Bank of Canada has abandoned its responsibility for the money supply and is pimping for new loans. With mortgages sinking close to the 2% range, I hear there are still a few greater fools knocking around Kelowna who think this is the time to buy. And guess who they’ve been listening to?

Equity fugit, pal.

Speaking of Kelowna…

Friday May 1, 7 pm, Ramada Inn. I will be presenting a financial seminar which is open to the public. But you must call to reserve a seat: (250) 860-6494.

Saturday, May 2, 8:15 am, Coast Capri Hotel. I’ll be speaking at the HoweStreet.com Money Expo on what comes next with this economic mess. Attendance is free, but you have to register to get in. You will then hopefully be frisked by waitresses.

105 comments ↓

#1 squidly77 on 04.22.09 at 10:18 pm

http://e-wavecharts.com/dowlt_index.gif

#2 Grantmi on 04.22.09 at 10:33 pm

WOW. What timing this post!

I’ve just arrived into Kelowna after making the swing from Kamloops and through Salmon Arm and Vernon!

It’s always amazed me who people listen too when they make decisions to make a purchase of a home, and what’s happening to the market.

Don’t listen to the people who profit from the buying and selling of homes. Real Estate agents, lawyers, RE Brokers, Bankers.. .. they won’t tell you the truth! They can’t! It’s their livelihood!!

Ask the spin-off industries. The moving company guy, the carpet cleaning companies, the home hardware, building supply staff/owners.

They’re the ones that know the truth!

They’re not DIRECTLY impacted… but they ARE impacted indirectly from all this collapse! They’ll tell you like it is.

And it’s not pretty!!

#3 Paul on 04.22.09 at 10:36 pm

Hey, do you mind. I’m trying to sell my place in Kelowna.

This was announced yesterday. Somebody has money and is betting on Kelowna.

Marina, winery in the works
by Kelly Hayes & Rachael Kimola – Story: 46465
Apr 21, 2009 / 2:33 pm

It’s a project which the developer thinks will bring together all the best aspects of the Okanagan.

Plans for a destination winery resort and marina were unveiled Tuesday by the Okanagan Waterfront Development Group.

Developer John Weisbeck, says the project, to be located on a 100 acre parcel of land on Westside Road in West Kelowna, will include a 650 berth marina, a 600 boat stacking system, a working vineyard and winery and a luxury hotel with spa features and restaurants.

“There are very few locations on Lake Okanagan on which we could do a project of this size, so when this property that available to us, we looked at the best possible project that we could put on that piece of property. The latest study has shown we are thousands of berths short of boat storage and moorage, so what better thing to do than to meld all the components together into a project that will be a wonderful experience for everyone, the public, the tourists. It will be unforgettable,” says Weisbeck.

He says they are in the process of making their applications and are hoping to start some of the ground preparations for the vineyard this fall.

“The first amenity that will be open will be the marina, we are hoping that will be available by June 2011. We are hoping our vineyard will be producing grapes by 2012 and we are hoping the hotel and restaurant complex will be open by 2013.”

Weisbeck says the project will inject more than $175 million into the local economy.

#4 DBG on 04.22.09 at 10:41 pm

Kelowna ………all I can say is my father lost everything back in 82 to 84 in the same real estate boom bust cycle. Unlike the Squidlly I wouldn’t wish it on anyone. It’s a slow bleed then your done. So, suck it up now or bleed.
That’s how it works in the Kelowna – Okanagan.
It took about 10 years……the mid 90’s before anyone recovered fully from that.

“but this time is different”

Cheers,

Good luck.

#5 DBG on 04.22.09 at 10:44 pm

The Coming Depression

Did you know gold in reverse is dlog. Drop the “l” and you have dog.

“Yeah ……baby”

Austin Powers

#6 Fool me once... on 04.22.09 at 11:00 pm

“All I can say is my father lost everything back in 82 to 84 in the same real estate boom bust cycle.”

Same here. Father was a successful developer and the family was doing well. We ended up in a rented shack for years. Very painful.

Anyway, thats why I’m a renter in this environment. We all could be calling this wrong, but as Garth points out, this isn’t about being right or wrong, it’s a risk assessment. And right now the market is too risky.

#7 DBG on 04.22.09 at 11:10 pm

#6 Fool me once…

Yeah, we drove to Vancouver and started all over. We lived with family for awhile until we could get some scratch together and then we rented a small place and lived their for a few years. But all said things turned out all right. Life was good and life is good!

#8 Da HK Kid on 04.22.09 at 11:20 pm

Garth Speakum Truth Pale Face, if the case!

Two words “OPTION TWO”!

#9 dd on 04.22.09 at 11:21 pm

#6 Fool me once

“We all could be calling this wrong”

I can’t see it in the short term … not will all the layoffs. And in the long term … the boomers have to sell those big homes to pay for retirement. This time around some real estate will hold value but not all.

#10 Dodged-A-Bullit-In Alberta on 04.22.09 at 11:27 pm

Greetings: My wife and I just returned from a 5 day driving trip which took us through Cranbrook and into Kimberly. I spent some time there and drove up the mountain, about 2 kms. Unbelievable the amount of for sale signs, lack of people, and partly completed construction with very little activity. One thing that caught my attention was the lack of services with the amount of housing on that mountain. I saw one solitary Coke machine in a wooden enclosure, nothing else, dick squat. Not even a convienence store. The amount of money and debt displayed begs the question: Who is financing the greater fools . We saw the same type of thing all the way up the valley as far as Radium Hot Springs.

#11 squidly77 on 04.22.09 at 11:27 pm

DBG
i dont mock and i take no solace in peoples losses
i post mainly charts..take them for what they are
real estate and the stock markets are doomed..so what are you gonna do.. blame me

take responsibility for your own actions
i really really dont want to hear blame or sob stories

you people love the glory
look at me..i am so successful and so much smarter than my brother or sister..thats fine until your not

then it someone elses fault..right

go vote for the free loading jack leyton
the same jack leyton that lied and received subsidized housing in B.C. when worthy people went without

they need people like you

#12 meggie on 04.22.09 at 11:30 pm

Garth-we are 50 with 2 teens in a paid for home of about 500K in value. Are you advising we sell and rent? The rent is around 2K/month and we would spend about 24K a year. Assuming our home devalues as fast as this, we don’t understand how we would be any further ahead in the end? Yes, I got your book and tried to email you this question but didn’t hear back. Garth? Anyone?

#13 Ghost of Tom Joad on 04.22.09 at 11:44 pm

The Obama Deception :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAaQNACwaLw

#14 squidly77 on 04.22.09 at 11:48 pm

“Layton and Chow were also the subject of some dispute when a June 14, 1990 Toronto Star article by Tom Kerr accused them of unfairly living in a federally subsidized housing cooperative, despite their high income.[2] Layton and Chow had both lived in the Hazelburn Co-op since in 1985, and lived together in an $800 per month three-bedroom apartment after their marriage in 1988. By 1990, their combined annual income was $120,000, and in March of that year they began voluntarily paying an additional $325 per month to offset their share of the co-op’s Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation subsidy, the only members of the co-op to do so. Average Toronto market rent in 1989 was $782 per month, although the Vancouver Province newspaper claimed a comparable dwelling would have been worth $1,500.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Layton

#15 Big Picture Guy on 04.22.09 at 11:50 pm

I don’t get it Garth. All these letters you get ie Paul want you to personally to say NO DON’T BUY..despite your repeated message on this blog and book NO DON’t BUY!

What’s wrong with these people? Are they that dense?

#16 Investor on 04.22.09 at 11:52 pm

squidly77,

The only problem with that chart that you really need to adjust it for inflation, plus Dow Jones is a weighted average index so you would need to go back in time and readjust the index for all the changes that took place over time, but its nice to scare the once that know very little about the index. I doubt that whoever put this chart together notified the members unless they were handing out with Isaac Newton during the South Sea Bubble.

So squidly77 are you short?

#17 Reg on 04.22.09 at 11:53 pm

If anyone is looking for the last place in Canada where housing prices refuse to go down (aside from the highest-end mansions), it’s Toronto. Guy I know just bought a detached place in the west end for $425,000. It was listed at $389,000. He and his wife beat out at least a few other bidders. I really don’t get it. My g/f and I spend $1000/month (approximately 13% of our gross monthly income) in rent for a nice 2-bedroom place in a decent neighbourhood. If we bought the cheapest house we could theoretically afford (around $350,000), we’d be dropping about 35% of our income on the place…and that’s just mortgage, property taxes and insurance. Repairs, etc. would probably push it well north of 40%.

No thanks.

#18 Gerel on 04.23.09 at 12:12 am

Garth, you remind me that Andersen’s boy, who shouted the Emperor is naked. When all will start chant after you, for many it will be too late. It looks media is entirely bought by real estate specuvestors, trying to squeeze last change coins from pockets.

#19 NVC Jr A.K.A Sir Puke head on 04.23.09 at 12:22 am

blah blah … blah blah blah.

It is different here in Vanblahcouver.

#20 Future Expatriate on 04.23.09 at 12:51 am

#5 And man’s best friend is… yep, dog.

Of course, MY best friend is Mr. Bigglesworth. But I’m not a man, I’m an evil supervillian with an eye to world domination through obtaining all the world’s gold reserves at bargain basement prices by crashing the price.

Kind of like Obama, but with a bigger fan club.

Dr. Evil

#21 Dougo on 04.23.09 at 1:02 am

mmm, I saw the newscast about that proposed marina. Man, you could see the sugar-plums dancing in that guys eyes. When asked if it was a go, he beamed “yes, 100% go” . ummm, dude the ALR isn’t even done with your proposal yet..
Enough with the Bah-humbug though.

#22 Grumpydawgs on 04.23.09 at 1:03 am

At he current rate of new listings over one million dollars coming to market there is now a 61 year supply of inventory in Kelowna. Does anyone think the bravado and quintessential je ne c’est qua of the bubble headed desperate realtards is going to turn the market? I have noticed that in vancouver at least the biggest loudmouths, blowhards and outright realwhores are becoming increasingly subdued in thier prognostications.

We are hearing more stories about the FTB’s that can save the market with increased affordability and “record low intrest rates” and less about how the lack of consumer confidence is a mental disorder and can be overcome with “optimism and confidence”.

The ground is shifting and it’s already swallowed 8500 ‘professional realtards’ into the abyss. Reality bites.

I say that number 8500 because in the recent BC unemployments stats that came out it showed that 8500 realturds have caught the reality bug and this terminal disease is fatal for the dreamers , schemers, liars, hucksters and assorted n’ear do wells in the higglty pigglty charade of hocus pocus real estate promotion and price presdigitation. Kapooooof !!!!!! , 40% of BC realwhores have had to find a new way to say ” would you like fries with that?”.

I have a bone to pick with these newly minted job seekers though . It seems that they are competing with the kids who need summer jobs who are trying to pay for part of next terms tuition. I would suggest to them to let the kids have the McJobs and for the realwhores to work the apple and cherry orchards this summer. I understand the farmers offer trailer accomodations. Karmic justice for the boobs who thought that the phony bubble would last forever, ” because it’s differant in Kelowna too”.

#23 Da HK Kid on 04.23.09 at 1:11 am

I found a very nice FREE exert from my man Gary Shilling’s INSIGHT newsletter who I believe is the best investment adviser in the US right now.

http://www.1913intel.com/2009/03/16/long-term-outlook-slow-growth-and-deflation/

#24 Sondra on 04.23.09 at 1:19 am

Just came back from a trip in BC’s Okanagan and Kootney area. Beautiful, breath taking, and lots of homes/properties for sale.

Everywhere there were for sale signs. After dropping into a couple of real estate offices and looking around it didn’t take much to find out the sales were rare.

A local merchant with only me in the whole establishment said that EI was keeping the small merchants afloat. Kelowna businesses seem to be doing okay, but venture 30 minutes in any direction and the people will tell you different.

Another local person told me that most people have something to do with the big cash crop in BC. They can be gardeners, overseers, drivers, accountants, it’s big business and all tax free, and huge profit.

That explains the empty boarded up stores, and the flashy cars with $$$ wheels in the small towns.

Real estate will continue to sell with the current unresistably low interest rate to first time buyers, properties $250-$350. People who are successful with their cash crop and cleaning up their money will indulge in private secure getaways. Farms, big family houses need to drop their price and get sold before it gets worse.

At a very recent lecture with CMHC they had “old stats” for their presentation, new stats coming out mid May. The rep for CMHC would not discuss the numbers that they are looking at, but did indicate that they are going to be seriously “revised”. They have charts showing the past 3 declines and then use the same math formula for projecting the possible outcome for this decline.

Even without their “revised” information the chart is very sobering.

#25 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 04.23.09 at 1:22 am

“. . . the hottest waitresses in the nation . . .” — Are you referring to moi, by chance?

Don’t forget that this part of Lotus Land, more commonly referred to as LaDiDaLake is Paradise Lost & Found Dept., all is viewed through rose-colored glasses, everything increases except taxes and all the citizens here have copious amounts of BC Bud for a healthy, nourishing breakfast.

Honest! It’s true! And pigs really do fly here!
——
Didn’t Obama and Bernanke say the same thing last week? Now here’s a parrot if ever I heard one! — http://tinyurl.com/dalgof
——
The Quiet Coup; writer’s column says, in effect, that the money-men are now the govt., not the ones elected. — http://tinyurl.com/cmktrx
——
Does anyone recall this? — http://tinyurl.com/chrdl9

“Once upon a time the NAFTA Superhighway/Trade Corridor was just a conspiracy theory. Then it was a gleam in Manitoba Premier Gary Doer’s eye. . . .”

#26 Munch on 04.23.09 at 1:51 am

How could we possibly be wrong?

Unless someone comes belting in from outer space to change all the rules (including gravity), this has only one way to go and that is down.

Strewth! Here we sit in the 21st century and we STILL have people asking the dumd questions!?!

Some days, looking at my fellow man, I feel like I should be a billionaire!

#27 Lance on 04.23.09 at 2:02 am

You can’t lose being a renter in this market. It’s cheaper and even if somehow real estate manages a 2% or 3% increase over the next year or two (it won’t) you’re still at a break-even or ahead as a renter. With the odds so heavily stacked toward a significant housing bust, sitting on the sidelines as a renter is the best place to be.

As for waiting 12-18 months, I think it’ll be longer than that. After a bubble this big, it might take a decade to find a bottom.

#28 confused and a little crazed on 04.23.09 at 2:07 am

#6 Fool me…
Good choice of words. risk assessment. Hey if you can afford a place at these prices , no mortgage, stable job…sure go ahead. if not …you are hitting below 25 – 30 % down payment and your job is dependant or econ activity…reassess you don’t want to lose your health( mental..emotional …physical) it all ties in. what sort of parent / spouse you will be if you take your frustration out of those you worked so hard to care for? :(

#29 Steve tanner on 04.23.09 at 2:15 am

Calgary. When are you doing Calgary. Are you avoiding it here? I’ve bought your books agree with what you say.. and allot of long timers in Calgary think the same way.

What are you – scared of running into harper? I bet his house has taken a dip as well in riverbend!

#30 [email protected]!t on 04.23.09 at 2:17 am

“Did you know gold in reverse is dlog. Drop the “l” and you have dog.”

huh??? So dog reverse is GOD?

#31 Martin on 04.23.09 at 2:18 am

AN article in the NYT calling for more drops in RE south of the border;

“the great real estate crash is not over, either. So if you are part of the 30 percent of American households who rent and you’re trying to decide when to buy, relax.

The market is still coming your way.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/22/business/economy/22leonhardt.html?em

#32 Just a Carpenter on 04.23.09 at 2:30 am

Garth,
Really at your age! you should realize it’s because of guys like you that I would pay my my daughters to not work serving in a restaraunt.

As for Kelowna, smartest thing I ever did was moving here. As for that picture, I never tire of that view, even after the fire it still takes my breath away.
As the saying goes, Wise men come from the East, the sooner they come the wiser they are.

see you in May.

#33 MacArthur_Foundation_Fool on 04.23.09 at 4:35 am

This is all news – how?

Even Kelowna gets cold and snowy in the wintertime. Laguna Niguel it ain’t.

Time was when it was a nice place to blast through on two wheels, via the Cochihalla at 200 km/h enroute to Gastown and the Grouse Grind. Or to retire in, back when the local supermarkets could keep up with the sleepy retirees coming by to purchase their tea and prune juice.

Skookumchuck through to Peachland was a nice little quiet area at one time, that Albertans driving out for a long weekend could chill out in during the summer. But it cannot not stand the intense overdevelopment pressure and hyped expectations of the same nature that killed Silicon Valley 8 years ago. As it has become a poster-boy of all that is wrong with Calgary, Vancouver, and Edmonton RE, the best thing to do right now is to get the hell out.

Gasoline in the BC interior has always been crazy expensive, as is BC sales tax. It will become absolutely prohibitive to drive out from Calgary or Edmonton every summer weekend in a couple of years, and the expensive old-people retirement places will soon enough be dead-old-people places that estate agents will try to dump for pennies on the dollar.

The interior is a decent place to hang out in on a rented houseboat occasionally, accessed by motorcycle. But it can’t realistically support all the wanna-be megarich types hoping to cash in on the next Greater Fool.

#34 Chris in England at the moment on 04.23.09 at 5:42 am

North Vancouver Citizen -get ready for thousands of potential customers flocking to your Utopia. The invasion is imminent!

http://tinyurl.com/ce2tkm

Some interesting snippets from the paper today. We have all become used to bandying about numbers in the trillions until they cease to mean much, but here’s a couple of UK eye-openers to get it into perspective.

“Mr. Cameron said the £348 billion Labour planned to borrow over the next two years was more than had been borrowed by every government put together ‘since the Bank of England was first founded more than 300 years ago’.”

“Interest payments alone on the debt will now reach £43 billion a year – more than the cost of the education system or the armed forces.”

#35 Da HK Kid on 04.23.09 at 5:48 am

Mish weighs in on Stress Tests! Classic Mish and worth reading his latest link supporting the manipulation that WE are supposed to believe.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Leaking and Reeking of Stress

The results of the Geithner’s stress test cake walk are going to be announced debated by the general public the stress test participants on Friday.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

#36 David Bakody on 04.23.09 at 6:27 am

#2 Grantmi on 04.22.09 at 10:33 pm
Right on and look at the contractors sitting longer and longer in Tim’s with long faces and others who are directly impacted by the truth of Garth words.

Hello ….. read this mornings G&M on line …… readers are pissed off at Harper’s Bank style toxic plan to bail out the auto industry ….. Garth …. did you not call this with words like Ottawa will never see
25,000 auto pensioners go down!

There is more going on than just a housing crisis, medical plans are taking a hit, seniors and those that require daily medicine are suffering, education is taking a serious hit, universities are cutting staff and costs to fight closure as they rely more and more on higher tuition fees. Food prices are up 8% while jobs go south along with any hopes of raise. Yeah right, buy a house or an overpriced auto now.

By the way if you have cash go to university ….. reports are its almost impossible to fail because the student is seen as revenue only …. just like the banks and RE people.

By the way y’all are aware Harper is spending our taxpayer money to pay the wages of 3,000 Corrupt Afghan Police Officers and we built their sub police stations ….. yup Canadian Taxpayer money at work! but what the heck he spend a ton keeping GT out of office ….. and even that did not work because his personal QP here has a world wide audience!

A smarter PM would have seen he won thereby keeping him front and centre …. Chretien said that many times when asked if he would try and keep an unelected leader from being elected. ” I bring him to the H of C where I can hold him to task face to face” then again is Stephen Harper really a PM or a wolf in PM’s clothing? He signed off on those 0/40 mortgages without a thought and now has filled this and other blogs with housing woes and much more to come!

#37 Kash is King on 04.23.09 at 6:46 am

#3 Paul , I hope you do well selling your place. Hopefully not too many residents are tuned into sites like this.

I kinda wonder about getting into the marina business right now -the developer you mentioned.
If our economy trails the US economy by @ 2 yrs, think about this kind of outcome:

Boats Too Costly to Keep Are Littering Coastlines
By DAVID STREITFELD
Published: March 31, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/business/01boats.html?em

#38 John From Campbellville on 04.23.09 at 6:59 am

Garth it never cease’s to amaze me some of the stuff I find on this blog as my wife and I say daily we live in a world with no CS. Common sense is appearently lost on many and we apperently learn nothing from history.
Anyhow I read the blog daily and if you are able to help even 1 person a month which I’m sure there is more you done a great service.
Keep up the good work!
Can’t wait to see you on the 21st in oakville and look forward to reading the new book.

#39 hagbard on 04.23.09 at 7:45 am

Still people arguing that you “can’t loose” renting in this market. Try renting in a rural area. No options.

#40 Jacqueline on 04.23.09 at 7:59 am

Meggie, I think if your home is paid off you don’t have to worry about the ups and downs unless you need that money for retirement. If you’re 50, you have a while before retirement anyway, so I would think you don’t have to worry about it too much.

#41 Ben on 04.23.09 at 8:06 am

#12 Meggie:

I agree with most of what Garth says about real estate, jobs, and the economy. For people in high-risk financial situations, leveraged to the max with shaky jobs, this will not be a pretty time.

However, it does not appear that your family is in this position. Without knowing other details of your family situation, and therefore unable to offer a fully-informed opinion, the fact that own your own free and clear tells me that your best bet is to stay put. This is a game of risk management, and you have played the game well.

Yes, your house value might go down to 350-400k in the next couple of years, but you have to ask yourself what you value. A stable home with a nice family and jobs is more important to me (and probably you) than how much the house is worth. And as you point out, it will be more expensive on a monthly cash-flow basis to rent than to stay put.

Stay put.

#42 SaraBeth on 04.23.09 at 8:28 am

Dear Dr. Turner ~ *grin*

I wrote for a diagnosis too… can I get an appointment here?

Sign me worried and scared… :-(

SB

#43 lgre on 04.23.09 at 8:38 am

Destination??? hahahahahaha..how delusional. Florida, California and Arizon are all destination places and they have been hit the hardest. I guess people are still not listening or learning.

#44 Some Guy. on 04.23.09 at 8:51 am

are they really that hot in Kelowna??

#45 Nostradamus jr on 04.23.09 at 9:43 am

Since my Great X 16 Grandad’s book “Les Propheties” was printed in 1555, you will note I have been updating Canada’s future and its place in the world on this blog site.

1/
Rural or small town living is dying…unless one’s career is in agrculture or commodities….Both will be large industry controlled and mechanized further.

2/
People will return to the city…for jobs, any kind of job.

3/
Newspaper and radio will be replaced by Handheld internet.

4/
Canada will raise & train an Armed Forces and stack them on the Quebec/Ontario border…protection against an influx of Lower Canada refugees.

5/
The CN Tower, after breaking in two sue to an earthquaqe, will fall inside the Rogers Centre Stadium producing a male son 9 months later and named “Jason”
in hommage to the Greek mythological, the Argonauts.

But only after Jason visits Kelowna and meeting “fried eggs and spam” does Jason find his true calling, as a realtor of the BC Real Estate Association.

to be continued

#46 Calgary_police_state on 04.23.09 at 9:45 am

You bought at the peak dude, what did you think would happen? And thank you for contributing to those unrealistic prices. Maybe you should have waited. You are now stuck with the problem you have created. Its not a bad thing that prices are coming down back in line with reality. Its still out of control in Calgary. Wait for interest rates to spike soon when the current status quo is unsustainable. In the meantime look for idiots that choose to buy the “bargain” prices currently available in Calgary. Bargain compared to what? Let the delusion of shacks continue in Calgary.

#47 Sondra on 04.23.09 at 10:14 am

#12 meggie on 04.22.09 at 11:30 pm

Based on what you wrote, you own your home, no mortgage. $500 current value, if you sell and rent $2400 per year in rent. You have 2 teens. They need stability. Family comes first. Stay.

The only reason I would advise you to sell now is if you were planning on selling in the next few years.If that’s the case sell now before the next drop that appears to be coming at the end of this year.

If your plan was to stay until your kids ready to support themselves out of the house then just stay, enjoy your neighbours, your life, and keep the finances in good shape. The world will not end, just shake up the people that are far too leveraged, and/or out of work.

Enjoy your kids.

#48 Got A Watch on 04.23.09 at 10:14 am

Garth thanks for your work. I know every day somebody probably tells you your negativity is bringing the economy down, or some such tripe.

The plain fact is most people just don’t want to hear bad news, and they get mad at the messenger. My friends have been calling me ‘Dr Doom’ for years, because I was telling them all this was going to happen since ’06, when I first starting reading about how bad the real situation was on Blogs like Mish’s.

Now that every bad thing I warned them about has come to pass, they are angry and blame me, as if the Depression was my fault or something. It’s just flailing about to find someone else to blame, I understand that.

The truth is we are all, as a society, are to blame. It is the collective exuberance, the irrational expectations, that have led us to this sorry place. But assigning blame is of little use now, the time is better spent looking forward, trying to survive.

We have many years to go yet before we see the other side of this crisis. One day there will be a time to buy real estate, and a new car and so forth. About 10 years on, I would estimate. In the mean time, it is a time to cut expectations, lower lavish living standards, and just get through this rough period.

The public psychology has shifted to a new age of frugality, which means the old style consumer economy is over as we knew it. It will be a difficult time, no doubt, but we will get through somehow.

Good luck to all.

#49 Irene on 04.23.09 at 10:29 am

Steve Tanner;

Calgary. When are you doing Calgary. Are you avoiding it here? I’ve bought your books agree with what you say.. and allot of long timers in Calgary think the same way.

What are you – scared of running into harper? I bet his house has taken a dip as well in riverbend!

I think Garth has answered that question on more than one occasion. If you want him to go to Calgary, you and your buddies set it up and he said he would go. I don’t think Garth is scared of running into Harper. The onus is on all Calgarians. Find a place book it and invite Garth to attend. Sounds easy enough to me.

Have a good day all.

#50 PTDBD on 04.23.09 at 10:32 am

Canadian taxpayers to contribute $6 Billion to GM and Chrysler.

In the U.S.A., up to 80% of the people polled are against further taxpayer money going to car companies.

So, how do the people on Garth’s Blog feel about this?
Should Toyota and Honda also be supported?

#51 pot/kettle on 04.23.09 at 10:34 am

Squidly #11

“i dont mock and i take no solace in peoples losses”

Then tell us what you meant when you said this:

“hehe.. your gonna lose it all”

“it’s going to be fun to watch this pig unravel.”

“and i laugh in your face”

“thy are gonna lose it all and that makes me smile”

“the future is good..not for you
but for me and my family”

#52 CJ on 04.23.09 at 10:43 am

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=a5EI1Y8ZCL9Y&refer=science

gee it can’t because its been so darn cold, has to be the ozone layer…HA

#53 pbrasseur on 04.23.09 at 10:43 am

Wow what a nice picture!

I have great memories of the Okanagan valley from when I was there for seasonal work in various orchards, that was 30 years ago…

That region is so beautiful and the climate so great I have no trouble understanding why there has been a real estate bubble.

That being said, realistically that region’s economy which is mostly agriculture and services based cannot support inflated house prices as they are now and the influx of retirees can’t support that either since retirees don’t usually have the income to feed a real estate bubble.

#54 PTDBD on 04.23.09 at 10:46 am

Garth, do you think that brokers will revise accounting standards for stocks and bonds to fall in line with American financial institution evaluations?

Due to depressed conditions not reflecting true mark to market prices, investors should be able to cash in their stocks and bonds using inflated California model prices instead of the current trading price.

Shouldn’t this also apply to house prices?

#55 Alberta Ed on 04.23.09 at 10:55 am

Mario at the Calgary Herald is still pumping the Kool-Aid — didja know that Canadians’ equity in home is still really really high… no worries here. Not a mention of declining RE values; nope, not gonna happen here. Have another sip…

#56 kevin on 04.23.09 at 11:00 am

Kelowna – Listed my house last July 1 for $600K, finally sold it $460K in Feb – 7 mths later. The pain is coming there until supply gets under control. Too many spec homes and too many empty condos.

#57 Mrs Loquacious on 04.23.09 at 11:02 am

Perhaps I have no compassion left in my bearish body, but I find it difficult to feel sorry for anyone who entered into the RE market with speculative intent and a greedy heart. I was taught that actions have consequences, and if you make a poor decision at some point, you have to live with the consequences of said decision. Action, reaction.

Those “greater fools” who fail to do their due diligence and would choose to buy with less than 25% down in today’s hyper-inflated market simply because interest rates are low and the RE spin doctors are working overtime, are going to have to live with the consequences of their foolish financial choices. They will not receive any sympathy from me, particularly because of people like Garth who have already given the “sheeple” (I love that term!) ample warning.

He who has ears, let him hear! And he who refuses to listen, let him learn the hard way.

#58 Dan in Victoria on 04.23.09 at 11:06 am

Paul,Think of it this way.We have a coal mine shaft that runs east to west with a bunch of canarys in the coal mine,a whole bunch of them have died and are laying in the bottom of the cage with their feet sticking straight up.Another bunch is still hanging on to the perch ,but they are upside down chirping for help.The remaining few are still upright clutching the perch with both feet,but they know it is only a matter of time until they join their ill fated comrades.But you know something? All the cage doors were open,they just had to be smart enough to get out on their own and fly to a safer location. Take your seeds and go.

#59 jimstanford on 04.23.09 at 11:30 am

Economy damaged – Bank of Canada sets stage for dramatic intervention

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/23042009/2/biz-finance-economy-damaged-bank-canada-sets-stage-dramatic-intervention.html

Is this the Jim Stanford? — Garth

#60 Brian on 04.23.09 at 11:41 am

So today there are lots of NEWS articles about retail sales being up 0.2 in February. Electronics are down, booze is up.

Let’s take a closer look, the reported figures are comparing to January and are seasonally adjusted numbers. We’ll get a better picutre comparing to Feb ’08 – down 5.1%. Whoops, no wonder that didn’t get reported.

But why seasonally adjusted? Let’s look at unadjusted actual dollars spent. Down 2.6 billion, or 8.9% from last February. Canadians cut spending by 2.3 billion from January 2009 (7.9%).

Spending in BC and Alberta had the largest declines of 13% YoY. Ontario was in the middle down 7.4% YoY. Consider that food and Pharmacy held the YoY sales up because disposables sunk.

#61 TrueGritCalgary on 04.23.09 at 11:59 am

#29 Steve tanner, isn’t Harper’s house in Tuscany?

#62 PTDBD on 04.23.09 at 12:04 pm

Did anybody else witness Carney dancing around the money tree question today? A spectacle that was both funny and sad. He calls it “Holisitic Quantitive Easing”.

If they really want to solve the problems, here are 10 suggestions that sound much more sane:
Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world
By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

#63 Mike B formerly just Mike on 04.23.09 at 12:46 pm

Do people not dispute here that Mark Carney is the biggest schill in the world.. What a spineless and directionless monkey he is. Basically a disciple of the Goldman Sachs cult. He certainly has dropped his credibility from next to nothing to absolutely zero.
If the issue at hand is that Greenspan left interest rates too low for too long and that citizens both in Canada and US are burdened with boat loads of debt then why would we be promoting the ongoing indebtedness and in fact suggest increase that indebtedness. What an absolute sham this is. Paying this guy 500 grand a year to ruin our banking system to appease his previous employers and fall in line with the US schills is beyond insulting to our collective intelligence.
How can we impeach this SOB.

#64 ally ally oxycontin free on 04.23.09 at 1:21 pm

#63 Mike B formerly just Mike on 04.23.09 at 12:46 pm

“Down the Memory Hole,” Alan Greenspan Style—Stephen Lendman

http://mostlywater.org/down_memory_hole_alan_greenspan_style

Just think about Alan Greenspan as ‘keynote speaker’ at a session hosted by Canada’s finest brokers and stokers in January 2008 … where he was still recommending subprime mortgages.

#65 Dawn in Calgary on 04.23.09 at 1:21 pm

#61 – #29 Steve tanner, isn’t Harper’s house in Tuscany?

It sure is — run into his wifey and her protection detail on occasion at the Tuscany Sobey’s.

#66 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 04.23.09 at 1:28 pm

#45 Nostradamus jr at 9:43 am — “. . . after Jason visits Kelowna and meeting “fried eggs and spam” does Jason find his true calling, as a realtor of the BC Real Estate Association.”

Hmmmm. Sounds remarkably like me, so I must research and investigate to figure out why I’m in a different place than I thought I was!

“. . . CN Tower, after breaking in two sue to an earthquaqe, will fall inside the Rogers Centre Stadium producing a male son 9 months later and named “Jason”
in hommage to the Greek mythological, the Argonauts.”

I understand there are fault lines back east as well, and consistent with the San Andreas Fault and other ‘quake lines down the West Coast, all erupting simultaneously with volcanoes going off all over, it means the Okanagan is now oceanfront property, with miles and miles of lush, sandy beaches and that we are now the Financial / Trade Centre of the world!

BTW, in March ’96 we holidayed for three weeks in S.E. France, 45 mins. east of Avignon and an hour’s drive from Marseilles.

There is a small town called Salon, and Nostradamus’ home is there. French govt. did it up very nicely, so we went inside and looked around.

Small, three of four levels and shaped like a thimble, wide at the base and narrowing the higher it went. Top ceiling was painted reflecting the night sky. Would be curious to figure out all the quatrains he wrote of.

#67 ally ally oxycontin free on 04.23.09 at 1:35 pm

#63 Mike B formerly just Mike on 04.23.09 at 12:46 pm

Carney “pimps” for O’Flairity.

http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080125.r-cover26/BNStory/Business/home

“Mr. Flaherty, whose political experience was at the Ontario level, was more of an Ottawa neophyte than Mr. Carney. The senior official’s advice soon became indispensable as the Finance Minister set about dealing with income trusts, getting to know and understand financial market players, and gauging the effect of a soaring currency and hurting manufacturing sector.

Mr. Carney was a hawk on income trusts, and felt strongly that they were a counterproductive blight in Canada’s economy, holding Canada back in an increasingly competitive global economy. His arguments were crucial in convincing Mr. Flaherty and Prime Minister Stephen Harper that trusts should be taxed before some of the country’s biggest companies opted to convert to tax-free income trusts.

The decision provoked a bitter and ugly backlash that continues to this day.”

#68 Jennifer Smith on 04.23.09 at 1:38 pm

May 1st and 2nd? Does this mean you won’t be at the Convention in Vancouver? Hmph!

#69 wjp on 04.23.09 at 1:44 pm

#50…How do I feel about government bailouts for any motor car company? May as well flush the dollars down the toilet…because it will not keep Chrysler in Canada, it will not stop GM from becoming a shadow of its’ former self…and those taxpayers dollars will have to be paid by my grandchildren. The present governments in Washington and Ottawa are encouraging us to continue with the same financial insanity that got us where we are now. Borrow now, buy now and pay big time later!!!
How about we stop this insanity? Have us all live within our means, governments, corporations and individuals, and legislate excessive compensation with excessive tax clawbacks.

#70 Jake on 04.23.09 at 1:45 pm

Squidly77,
I think you have a secret admirer named pot/kettle. It seems as though he/she hangs onto your every word. Kind of like the Greater Fool blog equivalent of a Facebook “creeper.”

#71 Jake on 04.23.09 at 2:04 pm

Speaking of creepy, thanks for that link to the Obama Deception #13 Tom Joad. It’s not surprising how interconnected all of these politicians and banksters are. I wonder who really pulls Carney’s strings.

In other news, it’s looking like Hillary’s increasing the rhetoric against Pakistan, so there will probably be a lot more job opportunities in the middle east in the near future. Who knows, maybe the Chrysler plants will be re-tooled for ammunition manufacturing. Interesting times we live in.

#72 Nostradamus jr on 04.23.09 at 2:18 pm

“””CAW members seek pension protection from Ontario government.”””

http://www.680news.com/more.jsp?content=20090423_123649_10184

…If Ontario guarantees the CAW Pension, look for Garth to run as Premier of Ontario in their next election.

…Good luck, you will win but careful what you wish for…you will have an undaunting task uniting a diverse and unemployed populated province.

…and living in a bunker may give off the wrong vibes to your constiuents so…Toronto here you come.

…No thank you, I’m not interested either in moving back to Ontario nor run for Provincial Finance Minister.

…In fact, as the new Premier of Ontario Garth, your job description will likely change to Prime Minister for the new State of Ontario soon enough.

…Keep the Loonie, the new Western Canada will come up w/ a new currency…the “Hongcouver dollar”

…You heard it here first…

#73 Mike on 04.23.09 at 3:24 pm

What a complete and utter bumbling droid Carney is….Yes Master GOLDMAN …No Master GOLDMAN… Whatever you say Master GOLDMAN….
Can anyone draw cartoons here… maybe one with a bubble making kit as he sits cross legged and bare footed grinning impishly over his shoulder as he reads the kit warning… “WARNING MAY CREATE PERMANENT DEBT AND UNRECOVERABLE INFLATION”

#74 Bulls eye on 04.23.09 at 3:31 pm

#61 – #29 Steve tanner, isn’t Harper’s house in Tuscany?

It sure is — run into his wifey and her protection detail on occasion at the Tuscany Sobey’s.

#65 – Yes in Tuscany – there is serveillence in all the intersections. Kind of creppy.

Small world – Same Sobey’s that I run to. It’s a giant 7-11. This community is over populated with few amenities. Glad I’m renting!

#75 jess on 04.23.09 at 3:53 pm

shareholders are starting to ask questions

Another small investor, Martin Simons, chastised the board for paying 14% interest to the Middle Eastern investors through last year’s complex fundraising while paying just 0.01% on savings products for customers. He also asked why the bank had disclosed how much UK corporation tax it had paid in 2006 but had not done so in 2007 or 2008.

Another shareholder raised concern over the “extremely bad publicity” about the division that allows companies to avoid tax, as revealed by the Guardian. The shareholder said such schemes “amount to robbery of the British taxpayer”.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/apr/23/barclays-investors-agius-fundraising

#76 jess on 04.23.09 at 4:06 pm

deferral schemes in the u.k
negative arms?

Homeowners who find their income cut, perhaps when one mortgage holder is made redundant or has their working hours reduced or their pay cut, will be able to reduce repayments to 30% of the interest they owe over a period of two years. Lenders will be protected against borrowers defaulting through a government guarantee during that period.

According to Halifax, which is taking part in the scheme, a borrower with a mortgage of £100,000 with a fixed rate of 4.5% paying 30% of their interest payments would pay £110 a month. The same mortgage would cost £630 a month on a full repayment basis.

Is this a payment holiday for borrowers?

No. The government is at pains to point out it is a deferral designed to give breathing space. The money you delay paying will be added back on to the debt at a later date, so a homeowner does not avoid paying it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/apr/21/mortgage-support-scheme

#77 The Coming Depression on 04.23.09 at 4:19 pm

DBG: Did you know since you posted GOLD is a DOG it went up $15? Did you also know that it is now over $900 and with the bankruptcy of Chrysler (announced today ) and the bankruptcy of GM (announced yesterday)..GOLD will now proceed to the dog days of $1000. I think Garth was telling me GOLD is garbage at $875 the other day..LOL

Gold is not garbage. Nor is it anything more than a precious metal. It is not money. — Garth

#78 Live Within Your Means on 04.23.09 at 4:25 pm

#12 meggie on 04.22.09 at 11:30 pm

Meggie – If you’ve paid off your home, you’re already ahead gal. I don’t know what other debts you owe but, if they’re negligible, and you have a fairly stable job, like your neighbourhood, stay in your home. A house, IMO, should be considered as a home and not just an investment.

I think we all hope that when the time comes when we can no longer maintain our homes, we can sell it, not for a huge profit, but that it will provide some needed money to move on to another type of dwelling. If something were to happen to my husband, I’d sell & go into a rental ASAP.

I don’t believe that Garth is, in any way, saying we should all sell. Rather, if one is over their head, & the potential is there for loosing one’s job, then get out now.

PS – Have yet to read other’s comments to Maggie.

#79 CS on 04.23.09 at 4:45 pm

#12 Meggie

Just wanted to second those who said ‘hang on to your house’ – it’s paid for! Lucky you. That was our goal, to have the roof over our heads paid for by retirement. At that point, I don’t care what it’s worth, I have to have shelter no matter what the economy is doing, so why not have one that’s paid for. Yes you still have taxes and upkeep, but it’s got to be amazingly steep to come even close to what you’d lay out for rent. Enjoy what you’ve already got!

#80 Dawn in Calgary on 04.23.09 at 5:22 pm

#74 Bullseye — I am glad too.

I am renting in Tuscany and just negotiated a 20% decrease in rent. Hope you’re not paying through the nose for that view of the Rockies!

The pub has some nice beer battered haddock for this bluenoser though.

#81 Dave on 04.23.09 at 5:25 pm

Gold is not garbage. Nor is it anything more than a precious metal. It is not money. — Garth

—————————————————

obviously it’s not money. A house isn’t money, squirrel meat isn’t money, a bunker isn’t money. They all have value though. So what is the difference? Anything with value to people can be converted to money. I hope that’s not an incredible revelation to anyone.

No need to specify that gold isn’t money. Why do so many people get so weird when it comes to gold around here? And it’s both sides of the argument that are strange…

#82 Kash is King on 04.23.09 at 5:28 pm

This is the gratitude we get for bailing out GM? WTH?

Ailing GM eyes new China plant – link goes to business.theage.com.au

http://tinyurl.com/ccftzt

#83 john m on 04.23.09 at 5:57 pm

Every day the future looks worse..more victims lining up for slaughter..(christ don’t people look around and see whats happening?).Kind of like a last ditch effort to scoop up the remaining suckers with some savings and make them the victims of a later date…….exurbia looks better every day…….generations of hard work,taxes and lives lost to preserve our ways of life are headed to “hell in a hand basket”……….if you voted for Harper for leadership you bet on a bob tailed nag! Enjoy today because by next winter everyones lives and priorities will have changed! IMO

#84 JP on 04.23.09 at 6:07 pm

Hi Garth,

I see that your book tour schedule has you in Ottawa on April 24. Is this correct? Can you provide details for where and when you will be speaking?

Sunday at noon, Ottawa Writer’s Festival, St Brigid’s Centre for the Arts and Humanities, 314 Saint Patrick Street, Ottawa. — Garth

#85 $fromA$ia on 04.23.09 at 6:12 pm

Canadian banks do 2% today with allotof hesitation through the day before they moved up.

Gold stocks did 7-10% as well today.

#86 905er & spouse on 04.23.09 at 6:12 pm

Is this the Jim Stanford? — Garth

I KNOW!!!

I was thinking the same thing….really cool if it is.

Even the top minds at the CAW respect Garth.

WAY TO GO DUDE!!!

#87 $fromA$ia on 04.23.09 at 6:14 pm

Gold is worth more than printed money, me thinks, Garth.

Printed money has no intrinsic value. :P

Then neither does your mortgage. — Garth

#88 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 04.23.09 at 6:17 pm

From The Daily Reckoning. [Inflation] coming to a planet near you:

“Throughout recorded history, massive surges in the supply of money and credit have always led to rising prices in some parts of the economy and there is no reason to conclude that this time should be any different.”

Bernanke, Paulson, Carney and all cohorts are printing money AND creating it electronically, and all of it from artificially hyperinflated thin air.

First link is an inflation tsunami coming (as night follows day). Scroll down a little to see the chart which has 1930 – 2007 in the same graph.

“China stepped up its purchases of U.S. Treasury debt. . . . What if China had a different game plan? What if she intends to continue buying U.S. bonds as long as she can…leaving the United States completely dependent on Chinese lending? And what if she then suddenly dumps all her bonds and U.S. dollar assets? She would lose a lot of money. But the U.S. economy would suffer far more. The dollar would collapse…so would the US economy…completely.

“Bernanke has studied the Great Depression of the 1930s and he is now in charge of the printing press. You can bet anything that he will continue to flood the banking system with trillions of newly created dollars. When this additional money works its way into the economy, asset prices will rise. It is worth noting that both the supply of money and credit in the United States continue to expand at a furious pace. ”

(1) http://tinyurl.com/decw93 (2) http://tinyurl.com/c839g3

Second, what is China’s gameplan? Third (no link) . . .

“Global Insight: China sees EU as mere pawn

“Viewed from Brussels, China’s importance to the world’s security and economic systems has never been greater. Viewed from Beijing, the European Union’s importance has rarely been smaller.

“This imbalance will be on display in Prague on May 20, when EU and Chinese leaders get together for a summit. The meeting should have been held last December, but in an imperious gesture the Chinese cancelled it after Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, showed “disrespect” by arranging talks with the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s exiled spiritual leader.”

Seeing as Mother Earth and Father Nature are totally screwed up from humanoidism incompetence, here’s something else to contemplate upon — http://tinyurl.com/cyjwd6

#89 Nostradamus jr AKA NVCJ, "The idiot" on 04.23.09 at 6:23 pm

Blah, Blah …. Blah Blah Blah

… You heard it here first …

#90 Live Within Your Means on 04.23.09 at 6:48 pm

#53 pbrasseur on 04.23.09 at 10:43 am
Wow what a nice picture!

I have great memories of the Okanagan valley from when I was there for seasonal work in various orchards, that was 30 years ago…

That region is so beautiful and the climate so great I have no trouble understanding why there has been a real estate bubble.

That being said, realistically that region’s economy which is mostly agriculture and services based cannot support inflated house prices as they are now and the influx of retirees can’t support that either since retirees don’t usually have the income to feed a real estate bubble.

I visited in’95 with the idea I might move to BC from Quebec. Stayed with a girlfriend, her hubby & infant son who rented a small place in a cherry orchard in Naramata. Yes, it was beautiful. Also stayed with a couple of girlfriends in VA . Ended up on the East Coast instead. Haven’t regretted my choice. One of those friends moved here last year.

#91 O'Ryan on 04.23.09 at 7:07 pm

We sold in Kelowna last May. Got a little over our asking price,just under $500,000. We didn’t have a mortgage but were well aware that the market had peaked and we wanted to be free of that huge money pit.
We are renting for now,and plan to travel for a year. Life is not about things. Your kids will be fine without your title to a deed. But really,if you think you will be selling within the next 5-10 years…bail now.

#92 Live Within Your Means on 04.23.09 at 7:19 pm

There’s much talk about credit card debt. I haven’t had any for 24 or 25 yrs. Took out a bill payer loan for about $2K and once it was paid paid off said I would never charge more that I couldn’t pay off at the end of the mo. According to my DH, in France credit cards are really what we call debit cards. You transfer money from your bank acct to your visa acct. to ensure there’s enough $$ to cover your charges.

#93 Live Within Your Means on 04.23.09 at 7:29 pm

#61 – #29 Steve tanner, isn’t Harper’s house in Tuscany?

LOL – When I read Tuscany I immediately thought I must be on the wrong blog. After all, Stevie had never been out of the country before he became Dear Leader.

#94 Future Expatriate on 04.23.09 at 7:37 pm

“Gold is not garbage. Nor is it anything more than a precious metal. It is not money.” — Garth

Not just yet anyway. Give Obama and the central bankers a few more months to figure out THE PUBLIC has already figured out the inevitable:

Paper will NEVER be real money. It only masquerades as such when its counterfeiters can sucker most of the people most of the time.

This is not one of those times. Neither is the foreseeable future.

Thank God. Reality has to cut through the seemingly endless bullshit and win sometime.

#95 Nostradamus jr on 04.23.09 at 8:18 pm

We have one truly sad soul on this board.

…dd…everyone knows it’s you…and stop sending me emails.

I keep telling you dd, you have to pay full price for my autographed copy of…”Krash & Burn, the End of the World, except for Vancouver/Hongcouver, the Next Financial/Trade/Culture/Leisure Capital of North America”

(…I know it’s a little long but my publisher ok’d it…)

#96 Grumpydawgs on 04.23.09 at 9:05 pm

Marc Carney, BOC governor said this morning something that again changed the official position, even the official postion was only one day old. This is one of the fastest ‘revisions’ of an official BOC statement I have ever witnessed. Strange times indeed. He is now saying (buying himself more time) that no recovery will take place until 2011. In other words we have our Bank Governor saying that we have a full two years, at least, of a recessionary enviornment. Nice.

I have been through three recessions in my adult life, the 60’s 70’s and the 80’s. Anyone who calls the 90’s blip a recession has nothing to copare it to. The 80’s in particular was brutal. The duration of a real recession sucks away the optimism and confidence of the entire economy. The duration of a recession is crushing. Peoples EI days are long behind them and poor are obvious everywhere, it becomes the new normal.

#97 Nostradamus jr on 04.23.09 at 9:49 pm

Trudeau never saw this World Depression coming I bet…

One way to save on costs is for Ontario/Quebec to amalgamate and the Atlantic Provinces to amalgamate into one other Province as well.

If we are all Canadians, we should all get along.

#98 Farmer Ben on 04.23.09 at 9:51 pm

I just found your web site tonight and Garth you still have a full head of hair as I remember you back in the days of your C.P. as Rev. Min.
No I don’t want a kiss.
I live in the Armstrong area and house sales are very slow.
We don’t have many of the *Impulse Buyers* from Alberta or from the coast ( Vancouver ) The house next door has not sold yet after 9 months on the market.
Lots of good paying jobs closing down in the N.Valley
Indoor farming is holding on great, all others are slow.

P.S. Garth–don’t mess with our hot looking girls, some have 300 lb brothers!

#99 Davinci on 04.23.09 at 10:27 pm

“Gold is money and nothing else!” JP Morgan.

You have to do some reading to truly comprehend that statement. It’s amazing how you don’t wonder why 75% of the worlds gold in deliverable form are held by Central banks around the world.

Now, if you think it is ridiculous for banks to hold so much of one asset, you may start to ask yourself who is the greater fool, a banker who creates currency that has no intrinsic value or you that hold them?

The banker Matrix has you. lol :)

#100 meggie on 04.23.09 at 11:15 pm

Thanks everyone for all your helpful suggestions. I prayed for an answer to come through on this blog and you were all on the same page. Blessings!

#101 Chris in England at the moment on 04.24.09 at 7:52 am

The Coming Depression #77: “Did you know since you posted GOLD is a DOG it went up $15?”

Now it can pay for its own dog licence!

#102 DBG on 04.24.09 at 11:33 am

#77 The Coming Depression

The Coming Depression #77: “Did you know since you posted GOLD is a DOG it went up $15?”

Promoters are all the same.

It’s up it’s down ……you spin me round like…..etc.

“Yeah…Baby”
Austin Powers

#103 Future Expatriate on 04.24.09 at 2:36 pm

#102- Austin Powers is SO 1999. I bought all the gold I could get my hands on and now I rule the world LEGALLY.

Dr. Evil

#104 TJ on 07.26.09 at 3:52 pm

> What Industry has been growing in the OK? Vineyards and Real Estate.
What high paying jobs are supporting this million dollar lifestyle?
It all seems like cheap credit and it has ended, but nobody knows that yet.
>
Canadians have fallen in love with the Kelowna region, and they aren’t about to let a little smoke and fire dissuade them from buying homes and condos and vineyards in record numbers.

What many of these so-called lifestyle refugees demanded was a single-family house in a wooded setting with a view of the lake.

Shawn Smith was one of those refugees. The Air Canada flight attendant from Gimli, Man., was on a layover in Kelowna 20 years ago when she called her husband and suggested they move to the region.

The couple moved to nearby Peachland, then bought a split-level home on a hillside in the Glenrosa neighbourhood of what is now West Kelowna.

Ms. Smith’s house has the requisite deck with a lake view.

As humans and development inch further out of the city – as has been the case in the central Okanagan – it’s inevitable that forest fires will collide with the inhabitants, which, in firefighting jargon, is called an interface fire.

“For the last 20 years, we’ve been experiencing the phenomenon of interface,” Mr. Ewart said. “Kelowna is a classic interface,” he said, adding that much of British Columbia outside the Lower Mainland falls into the same category.

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#105 kelownakid on 11.23.09 at 6:14 pm

Despite all the pessimism that causes you to look on the dark side of life, I choose to remain positive.
Don’t think for a moment that you have seen the last of the babyboomers – there are at least another 15 years worth of them coming on stream with large inheritances recieved from their parents who did not know how to spend. These boomers will gobble up your real estate.
It is helpful to understand that REAL ESTATE IS ONLY WORTH WHAT YOU CAN GET OUT OF IT AT THE TIME OF SALE. Anyone holding real estate for the LONG RUN will always do well – Garth should know this. If you hope to get rich on a 2 year flip, you are likely to get burned for your greed.
Anyone who has lived within their means and is now holding paid-for real estate will never have to worry about the property going under water. So avoid high finance, live within your means, enjoy life, buy low (with your own money) and take the present market situation as a buying opportunity. And learn how to buy and sell property on your own without a real estate
agent – they charge far too much for what they don’t do. Be positive.

Did you not read the post above, kid? The last bust took 13 years to heal. The one we are in now has the same DNA. Real estate is a commodity, and acts like every other one – just with a coating of emotion and denial. — Garth