Almost live from Van

65 comments ↓

#1 David Bakody on 04.04.09 at 9:38 pm

Points well taken, I was out to a wedding with my lovely wife and now home to simply click, watch digest and comment, to which my comments as others go world wide.

As for housing the word is out ….. house prices falling and buy only if you can afford to without any stress. Its just that simple ….. do not complicate …if in doubt don’t!

#2 ca on 04.04.09 at 9:55 pm

Garth —

In this video you mention that at some point in the future there will be inflation and hyperinflation. I thought you previously said there would not be hyperinflation. Would appreciate any clarification you can provide.

#3 dd on 04.04.09 at 9:58 pm

Garth,

Well done. Great presents in front of the camera.
Thanks for your thoughts.

#4 TUT on 04.04.09 at 10:22 pm

Garth
Good interview, thanks.

Did I heard hyperinflation ?

Cheers

#5 rory on 04.04.09 at 10:31 pm

Whoa …did i just hear the words hyper-inflation from GT at 5:28 into the tape …WTF!!!! …slip of the tongue or not?

#6 ally ally oxycontin free on 04.04.09 at 10:33 pm

Wall Street Journal [ Video Board ] Jobs & Stimulus

http://online.wsj.com/video/jobs-report-an-economic-reality-check/C59EBB3F-CB70-4067-8811-137AC38EC6E8.html

http://online.wsj.com/video/g-20-leaders-set-1-trillion-agreement/512901AA-1E42-4CD4-A0F0-A6E0F500FBFF.html

Meanwhile, in Canada, nobody is BUYING the government’s message, that, “relatively speaking, the recession / depression, will be easier and we’ll come out of it more quickly and stronger.”

What do we have that Americans can afford to buy?

#7 Glenn on 04.04.09 at 10:50 pm

Whoa! Someone get Tom a cheeseburger, STAT!

#8 Reg on 04.04.09 at 10:52 pm

Sheeple!! That is awesome. I look forward to purchasing this book and giving it a read.

#9 Mark on 04.04.09 at 10:54 pm

hi..

Where do i sign up for langley event? Cant find anything on howestreet.com about it?

#10 North Vancouver Citizen's Analyst on 04.04.09 at 11:31 pm

Why should interest rates go higher?

The suspension of mark-to-market rules has just guaranteed that the US will have a lost decade like Japan did since they no longer have to be honest about the value of their assets and can pretend they’re actually worth a lot of money.

This kind of fudging is what got us into this mess and now they will prolong it just like the Japanese did.

#11 Dave on 04.05.09 at 2:06 am

Garth, now you’re saying hyperinflation??? lol. What happened? you said “not in this generation” a few weeks ago. Tell me please, what would trigger a hyperinflation?

#12 Mark on 04.05.09 at 2:17 am

Here is an interesting read for everyones weekend.

http://tinyurl.com/c7dt6e

Compared Toronto and Edmonton’s real estate prices to commodity prices, stock markets and a bunch of other indicators. Really interesting stuff.

#13 rick in Surrey on 04.05.09 at 2:39 am

WOW! Did my ears deceive me, or did Garth Turner say at 5:28 of this video the words “Hyper-Inflation”! Yet on 02 April he said: “Moderately increasing inflation and higher interest rates are a certainty. But not soon. And not abruptly. And not extreme.” I am curious as to the change in position of your arguements regarding inflation now. All along you have been saying the gold bunnies are wrong about the possibility of Hyper-Inflation. It appears you have had a change of thought on that now.

#14 somecatchphrase on 04.05.09 at 6:12 am

If we can eventually expect higher inflation, even hyper-inflation, then why not take advantage of current deflation to position into precious metals and other commodities?

Like Michael from last week, I’m sitting on a large cash position and stumped as to what to do next. The deflationists have a strong argument, and the same could be said for the inflationists.

#15 Da HK Kid on 04.05.09 at 6:56 am

Good Work Garth, glad you touched on the broad points of the Olympics. I wonder how much the BC and Fed tax payers bill will be for that?

Honestly, I don’t see how, with the economy still being in the dumps globally, teams and sponsors will make the needed level of contributions to the games.

Didn’t the Montreal games put the city in the whole for 15 years??

Anyhow, back to the deflationary topic of RE and more on the Case Shiller data just released.

Unemployment is soaring in 2009 and so will foreclosures, credit card write offs, and bankruptcies. That will add to the inventory problems.

As much as housing prices have declined, imagine where prices will be if they fall back to 2001 levels or worse yet 2000 levels. Moreover, why shouldn’t prices fall back that far? Finally, how many are prepared for it, if indeed that were that to happen?

#16 wjp on 04.05.09 at 8:19 am

Hyperinflation – Deflation – Stagflation
Take your pick!
If the stimulus works, I would suggest hyperinflation.
I am not convinced it will , at least not fully as anticipated, and lean toward stagflation.
Necessities of life inflationing (food & energy) while consumer products and real estate deflating.
Deflation will be the result if the stimulus bombs which is a distinct possibility. Then commodities, precious metals, real estate will all head south and times will be very tough for everyone.
Now as to which poison one picks, good luck!!!
Now I know Garth has been pretty good with his predictions to date, but going forward, I don’t think there is an analyst out there who can guarantee any of the three!

#17 double mike on 04.05.09 at 9:27 am

Hmm. I’m not sure the worst is over. Commercial RE crisis and all those dreadful Alt ARMs are coming. We haven’t had any of big car manufacturers really down yet. Europe is still afloat somehow…

As far as hyperinflation concerned – when printing press fights rising taxes nobody can predict who will eventually win.

#18 North Vancouver Citizen Jr. on 04.05.09 at 9:40 am

#16 wjp

“””I don’t think there is an analyst out there who can guarantee any of the three!””

…As Garth’s future Federal Finance Minister, I have a finger on the pulse with an outside the box approach to the world, I see things without rose coloured glasses, I dont’ flip the pages, I read between the lines.

I am Garth Turner’s “Go to guy”.

My experienced staff, already on board, who include, North Van City Analyst and Da HK Kid, we discuss and verify all the analytical mumbo jumbo that may or may not be prescient and that which may or may not affect Canadians as Garth marches towards his pre ordained, Prime Ministership of Canada.

Renters and Quebecers, let us not quibble.

The single salient fact we must pool into one collective thought is for, Vancouver will become the next Financial/Trade/ Culture/Leisure capital of North America.

…and who knows, Garth Turner may eventually become North Amerca’s first Grand Poohbah.

No worries folks, at that point I know Arnold from California will want my position as the Grand Poohbah’s Right Hand Financial Prognosticator.

…But I have a plan…

#19 lgre on 04.05.09 at 9:57 am

It looks like we hit the bottom of the RE market according to Mr. Tridel on hot property..lol..I actually had a friend call me last night telling me that he just bought a house, he was looking to buy in the fall/winter ‘but couldn’t wait any longer’.

I’ll like to see how many more greater fools jump in as we are only losing thousands of jobs daily in Ontario..still a good time to buy though. The movie Idiocracy was created for a reason, take a look at the future ladies and gents.

#20 OttawaMike on 04.05.09 at 9:57 am

I’m with double mike on this whole shakeout in the markets being far from over.
There’s the matter of all the excess retail space that still needs to be resolved. Travel anywhere in N. America and witness the new strip mall/big box outlets that have been built with quality styrofoam and stucco construction over the past decade.

That is one big shoe that still has to drop. New lows in the market anybody?

#21 dd on 04.05.09 at 10:02 am

North Vancouver Citizen’s Analyst

The suspension of mark-to-market rules…

True, however, but the government is scared how the market and general population would react if every bank went under. Lets face it most banks in US & Europe are insolvant. This buys the government time.

#22 dd on 04.05.09 at 10:06 am

#17 double mike

… I’m not sure the worst is over. Commercial RE crisis …

But how to profit from it? ProShare has an UltraShort RealEstate E.T.F. It trades off the dow real estate however, it has been knocked like the rest market and I don’t know if it can go any lower.

Thoughts?

#23 dd on 04.05.09 at 10:09 am

Hyperinflation anyone …. please lets get through deflation first. Hyperinflation no … that is why interest rate will be a lot higher in the future to suppress inflation. But that is 5 years down the road.

#24 hagbard on 04.05.09 at 10:22 am

Failure of capitalism? I don’t think so. Capitalism would deal with this is sort order if the govt keep out of it. Moreover, it was a creation of govt (loose money).

#25 Jason on 04.05.09 at 10:23 am

See Eric Margolis Column in the Sunday Toronto Sun which points to the heart of this economic mess which must be addressed.
http://www.torontosun.com/comment/columnists/eric_margolis/2009/04/05/9009691-sun.html

>Hello Eric,
>You’ve stated the root of the problem which needs to >be fixed before any economic repair can have any real >effect.

>The biggest US banks are indeed insolvent and need >to be dismantled as you say. The markets will take a >severe shellacing (Dow 3000 – 4000)
>when this is announced…..but it is the only true road >to recovery.

>I really cannot understand how Barky, Geithner, or >Bernanke (who should be teling them to get on with >the funeral even though it will mean saying farewell to >old friends) believe they can re-animate these lifeless >objects??? Their liabilities are simply too enormous.

>Is there something else that we do not understand???

>Jason

#26 David Bakody on 04.05.09 at 10:25 am

The fact is “Big Business” has always found ways to make “Big Money” and governments must spend money to get elected and keep spending to stay in power over the long run. So why is everyone surprised ? Garth said Bank Interest Rates have only way to go: “UP” and when that happens everything goes “UP” and in the interim local, provincial and federal government will raise money from those least able to afford it ….. nothing changes, people (voters) are directly proportion to spending increases & false decreases at election time ….. once again vote!

#27 ralph on 04.05.09 at 10:38 am

Wall St. ticks off the world – Financial crisis, not armed terrorists, greatest threat to U.S. security

by Eric Margolis

http://www.torontosun.com/comment/columnists/eric_margolis/2009/04/05/9009691-sun.html

excellent article!!!

#28 dd on 04.05.09 at 10:59 am

#18 North Vancouver Citizen Jr.

I see things without rose coloured glasses …

So we should all do the opposite what you suggest. Excellent thought Chief Inspector Cluso.

#29 dd on 04.05.09 at 11:05 am

#25 Jason

“When this house of cards finally collapsed, the money men used their clout to get the George W. Bush and Obama administrations to bail them out. At the heart of the financial web dominating America is the bank, Goldman Sachs. ”

It is called privating the profits and socializing the losses.

#30 Basil Fawlty on 04.05.09 at 11:11 am

The inflation/deflation debate has been relentless and some people may be getting tired of the discussion. However, for those still interested in this critical discussion, there is a good analysis by Jim Puplava on his weekly internet program at financialsense.com, called “The Inflation Trifecta”. He is very well read on the inflation issue and he recommends some books if one is interested. He makes the point that changes in prices are seperate from changes in the money supply. He discusses how when prices fall it is called deflation, but when they rise it is called a bull market. He ues the example of how the fall in the price of flat screen TV’s is labelled deflation, when actually it is a reduction in price due to technology gains and increased competition.
He also discusses how even when people are told that gold has been the best performing asset class over the past nine years, peoples eyes still glass over and they look at you as a conspriracy theorist, which is kinda like a “gold bunnie”!

#31 jess on 04.05.09 at 11:28 am

How does this solve affordability?

deferrals

“TWO of the big four banks were initially reluctant to take part in an industry-promoted scheme to help the newly unemployed and families suffering hardship by postponing their mortgage payments for up to a year until the Federal Government picked up on the idea.”

http://www.smh.com.au/national/hardship-plan-was-a-hard-sell-to-bankers-20090405-9tbb.html

#32 Bobby G on 04.05.09 at 11:36 am

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html

#33 OttawaMike on 04.05.09 at 11:45 am

#22 dd
But how to profit from it? ProShare has an UltraShort RealEstate… snip
Ah, Yes SRS, I have made money on that one but you better have a strong stomach and know what you’re getting into. It’s a 2x performer meaning it represents 2 x the commercial R.E. index. I bought in at the 52 week low last week and still lost 20%. +-20% is nothing it does that frequently, sometimes in the same trading day. Also please consider that there is decay over the long term as the brokers running the fund take their daily cut and that can add to any losses.

#34 Got A Watch on 04.05.09 at 11:55 am

Since interest rates area at historical lows, it’s a no brainer to predict they will rise. Eventually. But timing is everything in decision making. When, exactly?

I feel Governments will be under immense pressure NOT to raise rates at first, when the economy does begin to recover and there is some price increase pressure in a few commodities.

Central Bankers are in a real bad bind here.

If they raise rates too fast and too far, they will prematurely end the “recovery” and send the economy back down, thus making it necessary for them to lower interest rates again, and look pretty stupid for the whole exercise.

If they wait too long to take interest rates up to moderate inflation, it can start to burn hotter, requiring more interest rate hikes to dampen it down, until you get interest rates up to high enough levels to stop inflation (ala Paul Volcker late ’70s/early ’80s), which then causes a recession as the economy slows. The recession in the early 80’s was a bad one, though not near what we are having now.

Either way, we end up back in recession or worse, after the interest rate two-step dance.

In the Great Depression, from my readings, there was a feeling around 1936 or so that the “worst was over” and the economy began to recover. The US Government response was to begin to remove the stimulus programs they had brought earlier, and to raise tax rates to make up for the shortfall in revenue from the shrunken economy. The economy promptly crashed again, and it was called ‘The Second Depression’.

History could easily be repeated. We could have a ‘double-dip’ Depression, caused by badly timed Government/Central Bank policies, and it is a distinct possibility, I think.

Governments have proven to me that so far they have no real idea how to handle this crisis properly – that trend can continue forever, probably. One day , they may get it right, but it would probably be from blind luck, and only after all other possibilities have been exhausted.

No real bottom in sight yet for years, IMHO, which means no real meaningful recovery till after that.

#35 Big Picture Guy on 04.05.09 at 12:10 pm

This forum has been both entertaining and educational.

What is sad to see is with regularity some people who still seek Garth’s advice on whether to purchase or sell a house despite overwhelming train wreck coming. Now he is not preaching do not buy for everyone. It’s up to your comfort level and knowing the worst case scenario and be able to live with that decision.

This inability to objectively gather, analyze, synthesize and understand pros/cons and make a decision based on one’s personal circumstance is truly sad. For goodness sakes think for yourself! You have all the available facts to make an informed decision.

As for the hyper inflation and deflation proponents, the simple fact of the matter we know where the general trend is going and but no one can predict the timing with accuracy just like the stock market. There is typically a gestation period and few head fakes along the way.

Shit just look at the longest bull run we just experienced. It should have ended LONG AGO. Greenspan’s monetary policy of cheap credit for 8 long years artificially sustained the illusion of wealth.

#36 victoria reader on 04.05.09 at 12:46 pm

Today on the local Vancouver tv news they talked about how real estate was leveling off or warming up again and on bnn this week a fella was on talking about how canadas subprime mortgages accounted for only about a third of a percentage point of all mortgages. Most people hear this in the media and have no other voices telling them any different.

The media has a vested interest in pumping real estate. This will not end well. — Garth

#37 dd on 04.05.09 at 1:21 pm

#34 Got A Watch

Inflation. The banks would love to have inflation over their stated 2% policy mark. It makes payback of debts easier. The world will be running inflation above the stated amounts for years to come … because will trillions coming to the market in debt it has too.

However again lets get through this deflation cycle first. The only way to do this is to focus on job creation and consumer confidence. There will be no spending when unemployment is increasing.

#38 taxpayer like you on 04.05.09 at 1:43 pm

34 Got a Watch – good post on interest rates.

But you did say:

“The recession in the early 80’s was a bad one, though
not near what we are having now.”

Totally depends on your circumstances at that time. I was outa work for basically a year and a half from 82-84. Felt more like a depression to me. Hardly any business was even taking applications. Decided I better go back to school, upgrade skills, have more options, with idea of
having my own business at some point. Took 5-7 years to come back.

I do find this blog to be Ontariocentric. Now that auto is in major decline, and will be lucky to be back at halfmast, it sounds like the world is ending. In BC, it doesnt look like anything we havent seen before – twice at least.

#39 Glenn on 04.05.09 at 2:06 pm

Here is a link to an international analyst from Argentina. For those that remember, Argentina had a massive financial implosion a few years ago.

This implosion was not “accidental”, but fully planned by Kissinger and his cohorts. Kissinger as much as admitted this fact and said it was meant as a TEST. Again, the collapse was NOT an accident.

Put simply, what happened in Argentina is now going to happen in America and Canada. I invite you all to completely ignore everything said in the following youtube link, then call me a gold bug or radical militia member.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlDNMB6wYmI

Two final points to hold close. One, tell yourself I am only telling you the truth because I hate you, and two, unlike Garth this financial analyst is telling you to get your money out of the bank NOW and buy something of value.

Why? Simply! Your money WILL BE WORTHLESS SOON!

#40 Jimster on 04.05.09 at 2:25 pm

Garth,

Since you seem so fond of using gold-bug terminology, her is another for you to make your own;

QUANTFLATION

#41 David Bakody on 04.05.09 at 2:42 pm

#36 victoria reader on 04.05.09 at 12:46 pm

Perhaps Sir/Madame like full page adds, reviews and not to mention multi page flyiers and oh yea all those interviews with real estate experts!

#42 HoweStreet on 04.05.09 at 3:49 pm

#9 Mark on 04.04.09 at 10:54 pm

hi..

Where do i sign up for langley event? Cant find anything on howestreet.com about it?

You can click on the HoweStreet.com Money Expo banners on the media player, or on the right side of the page.

Here is a short cut to register for free:
http://www.moneyexpo.ca/index.php/register/attendee

Don’t miss Garth !

#43 jess on 04.05.09 at 3:51 pm

bobby g,
FRAUD is a lagging indicator….

#44 jess on 04.05.09 at 3:54 pm

rinse lather repeat that is the so called business cycle !!!!!!!!

The U.S. Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s and early 1990s was the failure of 747 savings and loan associations (S&Ls) in the United States. The ultimate cost of the crisis is estimated to have totaled around $160.1 billion, about $124.6 billion of which was directly paid for by the U.S. taxpayer.[1] The accompanying slowdown in the finance industry and the real estate market may have been a contributing cause of the 1990-1991 economic recession. Between 1986 and 1991, the number of new homes constructed per year dropped from 1.8 million to 1 million, the lowest rate since World War II.[2]

The Keating Five scandal was prompted by the activities of one particular savings and loan: Lincoln Savings and Loan Association of Irvine, California. Lincoln’s chairman was Charles Keating, who ultimately served five years in prison for his corrupt mismanagement of Lincoln.[3] In the four years after Keating’s American Continental Corporation (ACC) had purchased Lincoln in 1984, Lincoln’s assets had increased from $1.1 billion to $5.5 billion.[4] Such savings and loan associations had been deregulated in the early 1980s, allowing them to make highly risky investments with their depositors’ money. Keating and other savings and loan operators took advantage of this deregulation.[4][5] Savings and loans established connections to many members of Congress, by supplying them with needed funds for campaigns through legal donations.[5] Lincoln’s particular investments took the form of buying land, taking equity positions in real estate development projects, and buying high-yield junk bonds.[6]

#45 OttawaMike on 04.05.09 at 4:05 pm

Plant that garden and stock up on xurbia supplies ’cause Cramer says the depression is over.
http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2009/20090403095014.aspx
We are all screwed…

#46 jess on 04.05.09 at 4:12 pm

Bailing out AIG cost the same as bailing out these 500+ savings and loans!

During the 1980s, the savings and loan industry experienced severe financial losses because extremely high interest rates caused institutions to pay high rates on deposits and other funds while earning low yields on
their long-term loan portfolios. During this period, regulators reduced capital standards and allowed the use of alternative accounting procedures to increase reported capital levels. While these conditions
were occurring, institutions were allowed to diversify their investments into potentially more profitable, but risky, activities. The profitability of many of these activities depended heavily on continued inflation in real estate values to make them economically viable. In many cases, diversification was accompanied by inadequate internal controls and noncompliance with laws and regulations, thus further increasing the risk
of these activities. As a result of these factors, many institutions experienced substantial losses on their loans and investments, a condition that was made worse by an economic downturn. Faced with increasing losses, the industry’s insurance fund, the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation
(FSLIC), began incurring losses in 1984. By the end of 1987, 505 savings and loan institutions were insolvent. The industry’s deteriorating financial
condition overwhelmed the insurance fund which only 7 years earlier reported insurance reserves of $6.5 billion. In 1987, the Congress responded by creating the Financing Corporation (FICO) to provide
financing to the FSLIC through the issuance of bonds. Through August 8, 1989, FICO provided $7.5 billion in financing to the FSLIC; however, the
insurance fund required far greater funding to deal with the industry’s problems.In response to the worsening savings and loan crisis, the Congress enacted the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989 (FIRREA) on August 9, 1989. FIRREA abolished FSLIC and transferred its assets, liabilities, and operations to the newly-created FSLIC Resolution Fund (FRF) to be administered by the FDIC.4 In addition, FIRREA created a new insurance fund, the Savings Association Insurance Fund (SAIF).

http://www.gao.gov/archive/1996/ai96123.pdf

#47 Canned Goods and Buckshot on 04.05.09 at 4:37 pm

Ottawa Mike

I am finding it hard to decipher and interpret what Cramer is saying. I don’t trust this clown, especially after watching the video of him describing his own manipulations of the markets. Could you expand on your view?

#48 Shifty on 04.05.09 at 4:47 pm

What is happening with unfinished developments post-boom – Victoria

http://www.timescolonist.com/Business/Taking+stock+unfinished+developments+post+boom/1466506/story.html

#49 Andrew on 04.05.09 at 5:43 pm

Hey Garth,

Can we get some commentary on the Mulroney thing?

Best,

Andrew

I know nothing about Airbus, or Schreiber. But I sat in BM’s caucus for four years, was given useful, productive challenges and the ability to contribute, speak my mind and argue my points. The difference with SH is extreme. No wonder the current PM wants to erase the past, since he is diminished by it. — Garth

#50 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 04.05.09 at 5:56 pm

Listening to your interview, reading the comments and from what I understand overall — yesterday my significantly better half did a whole load of shopping at Superstore, a few smaller places and mentioned that prices of food / grocery staples, other things connected to said places had gone way up, almost everything increased significantly.

This appears to be INFLATION on the one hand.

On the other hand, prices of electronics, computers, autos, jobs / paycheques and the like are decreasing just as significantly, up to $100,000 has been slashed on the prices of some brand new homes and in other subdivisions extra goodies are being thrown in as an incentive for people to buy (obviously, they’re not).

This appears to be DEFLATION.

So one is working against the other, possibly organized and / or pre-planned, I don’t know. Does this not lead to stagflation?

If it does, then it becomes easier to understand the hyperinflation comment you spoke briefly about. After all, these ARE The Four Horseman Of The Apocalypse.

I guess — and it is just a guess — that from July ’09 on, things gather momentum going downhill, so next winter and beyond should be a much clearer indicator of where overall life is headed.
——-
#39 Glenn on 04.05.09 at 2:06 pm — About a month or so prior to last week’s G20 illusionary garbage, Kissinger was openly calling for a ‘New World Order’ to be established, so as to prevent this kind of fiscal collapse.

Spring ahead to the meeting, and just about everyone and their grandparents are parroting the same thing as Kissinger said — a ‘New World Order’.

NWO implies a single govt. with a single currency. More accurately, it describes a dictatorship / police state.
——
#46 jess on 04.05.09 at 4:12 pm — As far as I know, the US govt. will keep bailing out AIG for ever — it is one of the last ‘pillars’ of strength — screwing taxpayers royally — at the bottom of the pile that supports just about everyone else.

If AIG fails, the rest come crumbling down.

#51 Glenn on 04.05.09 at 6:10 pm

I heard on the radio that AIG is getting alot of bailout funds because AIG has control of *drum roll* THE PENSION FUND OF THE U.S. CONGRESS!

Covering their own asses, at our expense of course.

#52 JoeCalgary on 04.05.09 at 6:19 pm

“The best way to rob a bank is to own one.”

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html

William K. Black

Length: 28 minutes Worth: every minute of it.

Could this happen in Canada? Are the banks arms’ length from government? Why is Carney now talking quantitative or credit easing? Will business owners ever be required to take responsibility for bad business decisions, including that of the way in which they manage money?

#53 North Vancouver Citizen Jr. on 04.05.09 at 6:25 pm

Federal Reserve…>…Fraud…>…Inflation…>…
Recession…>…Deflation…>…War…>…Protectionism/Secession

#54 OttawaMike on 04.05.09 at 6:27 pm

#47 Canned Goods and Buckshot
Regarding my post #45 about the fast money guy. When he says the Depression is over, as usual you can bank on him being wrong.

#49 Andrew
I have never voted for Brian Mulroney’s party, and can’t say I have any affinity with him BUT no former head of state deserves the contempt/ disrespect he continues to receive. The Schreiber affair is a never ending farce.
I do believe ultimately(when the boomers are all gone) history will view Mulroney as one of Canada’s most influential leaders.

#55 . . . fried eggs and spam . . . on 04.05.09 at 6:58 pm

#105 Heather W on 04.04.09 at 11:18 pm — A link from a week or so ago suggested that five per cent of the ‘rich, powerful’ megalomaniacs controlled approx. 95% of the msm, not including the CBC which is probably one reason why Harper and his ilk want it downsized, or gone altogether.

The only aspect they cannot control is the ‘net, which leads to my previous post about the formation of a ‘New World Order’, with one central govt., one currency, ‘net control and the like.

It was reported some time ago that Bell, Telus and possibly Shaw wanted to change the rules and charge individuals per site they visited (before the meltdown).

However, things are happening with ever-increasing speed and intensity, all of these so-called ‘smart plans’ have been put on the backburner, forgotten altogether and with economies around the world in a shambles, will be too focused on other things to be bothered with ideas. — http://tinyurl.com/dhnfb2

#56 Grumpydawgs on 04.05.09 at 7:04 pm

Well Garth, with at least one or two giant sucker rallys ahead of us before ant stabization in the equity markets and your five year prediction regarding the re recocery we’ ll have a nice seven year recession to look forward to. Historically, by the numbers, thats just about right.

#57 Ghost of Tom Joad on 04.05.09 at 7:33 pm

Glenn, thank you very much for that link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlDNMB6wYmI
You’ve had some good posts in the past that seem to make a lot of sense to me.

Been listening to Patriot Trading Group for a year now and they helped me understand this mess with the Federal Reserve and they also have come to the same conclusion that there is no way out other than the destruction of the US dollar or WW III:
http://allamericangold.com/

To all the Garth folks that need to find out what’s really happening, tune into Alex Jones at:
http://www.infowars.com/

#58 Eduardo on 04.05.09 at 7:37 pm

If AIG fails then the world comes crashing down. If AIG does not fail it will be because the government has injected trillions into it causing inflation.

#59 jess on 04.05.09 at 7:57 pm

#49 Andrew on 04.05.09 at 5:43 pm
watch frontline.org april 7th and you will see how bribes work global.

#60 dd on 04.05.09 at 10:32 pm

#53 North Vancouver Citizen

Wrong order.

#61 nonplused on 04.06.09 at 1:07 am

#47 Canned Goods and Buckshot

Check out Jon Stewart ripping Crammer a new one here:

http://www.thecomedynetwork.ca/shows/showdetails.aspx?sid=3350

You need to do a lot of scrolling because of how that site works, but it’s worth it. Some of Jon’s best work, and Jim admitting he’s been wrong from time to time (sic).

Inflation/deflation:

Look, dudes, paper money always inflates, but not linearly. We will have deflation until they suspend the laws that enforce debtor obligations, which is what they are doing, but it will take some time. Then we will have inflation. In months or years, the government will get the hang of inflation, but it won’t save anyone. You can buy hard assets but hey will have a new way of taxing those assets when the time comes. The way of a socialist democracy is to eventually take everything from everybody but the oligopoly.

Watch the Colbert Report just to see him sharpening his pitch fork with an angle iron. Only way out.

#62 nonplused on 04.06.09 at 1:08 am

meant “angle grinder”.

#63 gold bug on 04.06.09 at 3:19 am

Fried Eggs, you’re looking at symptoms, not causes. Inflation is an increase in the money supply. Deflation a decrease. We are 100% in inflationary times.

Prices decrease all the time in inflationary environments, mostly thanks to increased productivity. For instance, if Westinghouse offshores its production to Lower Mumbai, you might be able to buy a washing machine for a hundred bucks.

Meanwhile, government printing presses are working OT, reducing your purchasing power.

I’ll believe in deflation the day there are no more politicians. It’s not a credible claim on any level.

#64 Tony on 04.06.09 at 4:08 am

Garth presently interest rates are going up not down. Look at the short and long term bond rates in Canada. Mortgage rates and GIC rates may be falling but bond rates are the only thing that matters. Also the bond rates in America have gone sharply higher over the last 6 months especially at the long range of the curve. With the bump in the stock markets of about 20 percent this has driven short and long term rates higher over the past 3 weeks. Anyone holding a long term bond in Canada will lose money as they should’ve sold before the rally in the stock markets around the world.

Mortgage rates dropped Saturday. — Garth

#65 thecomingDepression on 04.06.09 at 2:14 pm

Garth there will be NO RECOVERY FOR YEARS. Will you be paying off the 60 plus trillion dollar debt of the USA? What about the 1.6 quadrillion dollar derivative exposures> Will that just go away? You are giving people false hope ( like the article on the front page of the Vancouver Sun Today) instead of telling them to prepare.

“The amount in loans that banks will need to write off will exceed levels seen during the Great Depression, according to a bank analyst’s report Monday.”