Freaked in the Fraser

Below is a just-released chart of housing market activity in BC’s Fraser Valley. The little gray line at the bottom indicates sales and the giant snow-covered peak at the right shows current active listings. Skiing anyone?

fraser-valley

Vancouver ’08 sales fall 35%, down 51% in December

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that sales of detached, attached and apartment properties decreased 35.3 per cent in 2008 to 24,626 sales compared to 38,050 sales in 2007. Property listings for the year increased 13.9 per cent to 62,561 compared to 2007 when 54,945 new properties were listed.

“Trends in the latter half of 2008 showed a consistent month-over-month decrease in residential housing prices, a departure from the rising home prices and record-breaking sales that were experienced in Greater Vancouver for much of this decade,” said REBGV president, Dave Watt.

“It’s also important to note that our December statistics show a third consecutive month of a decrease in active property listings in Greater Vancouver. That means supply is coming down,” Watt said. “Last month was also the first time in 27 years that Greater Vancouver homes sales for December were higher than November.”

Residential benchmark prices, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, declined 10.9 per cent between Decembers 2007 and 2008. Since May 2008, the overall residential benchmark price has declined 14.8 per cent in Greater Vancouver to $484,211 from $568,411.

“For buyers, lower prices haven’t been a concern as much as the perception that prices are falling. It’s difficult to identify the ‘bottom’ of the market. The reality is that people tend to buy when prices are going up, not when they’re going down,” Watt said.

In December 2008, sales of detached, attached and apartment properties totalled 924, a decrease of 51.3 per cent compared to the 1,897 sales in December 2007.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties declined 8.6 per cent to 1,550 in December 2008 compared to December 2007 when 1,695 new units were listed. Total listings in December declined 17.2 per cent to 15,193 from the 18,348 total active listings in Greater Vancouver in November 2008.

Sales of detached properties in December 2008 declined 48.7 per cent to 348 from the 679 units sold during the same period in 2007. The benchmark price for detached properties declined 11.2 per cent from $730,399 in December 2007 to $648,421 in December 2008. Since May 2008, the benchmark price for a detached property in Greater Vancouver has declined 15.9 per cent.

79 comments ↓

#1 Waiting for a Deal on 01.06.09 at 8:41 am

Garth,

In this diagram, what is the difference between “Listings” and “Actives”? … you call the “Actives” “listings” but the diagram doesn’t.

Thanks for the clarification.

#2 dd on 01.06.09 at 8:58 am

#1 Waiting for a Deal,

What is means? There are a lot of real estate on the market.

#3 dd on 01.06.09 at 9:03 am

There is the market stats for Vancouver mid island (must clink on name to unhide monthly stats). However according to these graphs it looks like properties are flat.

But I know that this is not the case. Prices are coming down.

http://www.coastrealty.com/pages/market_stats/pdf_links/

#4 Gord In Vancouver on 01.06.09 at 9:05 am

This is just the beginning.

Even Royal LePage Real Estate Services is saying that average Vancouver prices, closely correlated with the Fraser Valley, will decline by 9% in 2009.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Correction-not-crash-for-cnw-13976022.html

#5 Realtor on 01.06.09 at 9:06 am

Actives- New listings added on top of existing listings that are currently available for sale
Listings- Total no. of properties currently listed in aperiod. Not all got sold, some expired/terminated
Solds- Listings sold

#6 dd on 01.06.09 at 9:06 am

The Globe today …

“Average Canadian house prices will fall by another 3 per cent in 2009, but the drop will add up to a “correction,” not a “crash,” real estate brokerage Royal LePage said Tuesday.

Nationally, the average house price will fall to $295,000, from a projected level of $304,000 for 2008, the Toronto-based firm forecast. This follows a 1.1 per cent dip last year from $307,265 in 2007.”

Oh, if only this were true I could dream about better days ahead.

#7 Grant on 01.06.09 at 9:12 am

;-)

#8 House Bear on 01.06.09 at 9:22 am

Regarding the article in the “Globe”:
After a historical housing boom, what’s inevitably coming up is a bear market. Correction in an understatement.
Those analysts should be focusing to the affordibility index, ratios of price to rental fee etc. instead of consolingly comments on US market

#9 smwhite on 01.06.09 at 9:42 am

#6 dd

Priceless, these real estate “experts” are very entertaining and the media outlets are starting to pay the price of less RE advertising because of the “buyers” market. In the face of everything that happens, they still stand up with a straight face, cross their fingers and tap their toes, with these “hopeful predictions”.

So could my eyes be deceiving me? Listings are growing in my neighborhood, and the inventory is standing still, half of the units for sale have dropped in the range of 5% – 10% in the last 3 – 6 months. I expect the same drop into the summer of 2009.

My current down payment today will net me about 15% down on one of these homes, come the summer, it will be 20% down. I’ve never been worried about the interest rate, its the principal that will kill you.

PS That’s a lot of white in that chart, that’s good isn’t it, white is a nice neutral, non confrontational color?

#10 JOHN on 01.06.09 at 9:55 am

http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090106.wroyal0106/BNStory/Business/home

Garth,

Why are banks starting to do this here.? I thought they were in a solid position

#11 Andrew toronto on 01.06.09 at 10:29 am

Anyone know if the Toronto realestae sales are out get for december ?

#12 Mike on 01.06.09 at 10:38 am

If you look at bnn you will see that the realtors are at it again with their projections that define reality.
http://www.bnn.ca/news/5885.html

Laughable at best… Hopeful and ridiculous..
Look at the facts people. Two major banks issuing preferred shares to boost their cash stores, TD yesterday and RBC today. Do the realtors think they live in some other world than the rest of us.
The US factory orders dropped 4 straight months..4.6% in November. Rogers wireless subscribers numbers much less than expected. That’s the news just for TODAY. Jobless numbers by the end of the week should embarass the butt heads at “REALTY WORLD OF IDIOTS” .

#13 Bermygoon on 01.06.09 at 10:44 am

When are december listing numbers out for Toronto?

#14 Andrew toronto on 01.06.09 at 11:00 am

One thing which is really botehring me is the huge
liability in the 600 TRILLION range, not billion. We are looking at unwinding 600 TRILLION in unfunded liabilities at all levels of the global economy.

will your book touch on this and how this will affect housing in canada ,,,

some links ..

http://seekingalpha.com/article/99674-coming-soon-the-600-trillion-derivatives-emergency-meeting

and from a respondant on http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2008/12/debt-rattle-december-16-2008-trillions.html

Deflation is hammering on the door and all the FED has is a Nerf gun. Helicopter Ben thinks he has the ultimate answer in the printing press. The truth is money is a lot like truth, it’s value is in it’s context. A big pile manure is a lot more useful to a farmer than a supermodel, and money is more valuable in some hands than others. The problem Ben is going to face is that the money being pumped out, if it doesn’t get eaten by the 600 trillion derivative black hole circling the US, will not get to the right hands (hint: they won’t be found on Wall Street). The FED liquidity will be too little, too late and misplaced. The ensuing US depression will stop the heart of international capital flows and lead to the spectacular collapse of Globalization.

apprectiate any input … thanks

#15 charliegosurf on 01.06.09 at 11:06 am

i’ll ride the 2008 M peak, mium, and fresh powder all over….

keep on rollin, the 2009 terrain, looks so stteep…a ffreefall… carefull about greed avalanche too, they take care of a dollars and bury them under a pile of commonsense.

goin skiin..seeyalater

#16 Jeff Smith on 01.06.09 at 11:11 am

> The Globe today …
> “Average Canadian house prices will fall by another
> 3 per cent in 2009, but the drop will add up to a
> “correction,” not a “crash,” real estate brokerage
> Royal LePage said Tuesday.
> Nationally, the average house price will fall to
>$295,000, from a projected level of $304,000 for
>2008, the Toronto-based firm forecast. This follows a
>1.1 per cent dip last year from $307,265 in 2007.”
> Oh, if only this were true I could dream about better
>days ahead.

Whew! Royal LePage eh? I thought they were going to say house price will sky-rocket next year.

#17 real estate expert on 01.06.09 at 11:11 am

…The Fraser Valley is not Vancouver…

http://www.fraservalleyguide.com/

Abbotsford
Agassiz
Aldergrove
Chilliwack
Cloverdale
Coquitlam
Cultus Lake
Delta
Fort Langley
Harrison Hot Springs
Harrison Mills
Hope
Kent
Langley City
Langley Township
Maple Ridge
Mission
Pitt Meadows
Port Coquitlam
Port Moody
Richmond
Steveston
Surrey
White Rock
Yale/Fraser Canyon

#18 Bay Street Lawyer on 01.06.09 at 11:15 am

Today’s Toronto Star (http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/562226… currently top of the “Most Read”):

“Banks in Canada have been prudent lenders and, because of this, largely avoided the financial difficulties and sub-prime mortgage issues that have plagued banks in other countries. It is in everyone’s best interest that banks stick to these sound, fundamental principles of prudent lending during this recessionary period.”

Glenn Thibeault, the NDP’s consumer protection critic, said that type of “status quo” response is unacceptable given that banks are busy hiking some interest rates and fees for already squeezed consumers and small businesses.

“Basically what they are telling Canadian families who are struggling is that the big banks aren’t there right now when Canadian families need them,” said Thibeault (Sudbury).

Is that really what we need right now? Extending more credit to “struggling” families and businesses? Is it not a better idea to provide them with the means of doing more with what they have (i.e. tax cuts) insteading of providing them with the ways of going further under water?

While I may not agree with the “we avoided the US mess” assertion, I’m on the bank’s side in terms of being prudent. Shut off the tap. Protect my deposit.

#19 Andrew toronto on 01.06.09 at 11:15 am

Forecast: Our economic fate remains entwined with that of U.S. Someone gets

JEFFREY SIMPSON

From Tuesday’s Globe and Mail

E-mail Jeffrey Simpson | Read Bio | Latest Columns
January 6, 2009 at 12:00 AM EST

No one precisely knows how bad the economy will be in Canada in 2009. The forecasters, predictably, do not agree, except that the economy will contract, unemployment will rise and fiscal deficits will again become the order of the day.

Canada’s economy is joined at the hip with that of the United States. So consider this, when trying to figure out whether our recession will be short or mild he says

here’s the link..
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090105.wcosimp06/BNStory/specialComment/home

#20 Mike (authentic) on 01.06.09 at 11:19 am

“Average Canadian house prices will fall by another 3 per cent in 2009, -Royal LePage”

Reminds me of the Public Enemy Song…

“Don’t believe the Hype”

Royal LePage isn’t a reliable unbaised source of information IMO. I’ll follow Gord’s predictions, Squidy’s and many others on there before I put money on LePage’s.

Mike

#21 Gold Bug on 01.06.09 at 11:27 am

This may be very educational…

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/crash/program/index.html

#22 AM on 01.06.09 at 12:02 pm

I think you will see the typical numbers spin from the various RE associations. Vancouver and generally the west will get hammered but this will be minimized by statements like “Nationally, the average house price will fall to $295,000, from a projected level of $304,000 for 2008, the Toronto-based firm forecast.”

If you are holding an overpriced investment property in Vancouver, do you get a warm and fuzzy knowing the “national” average will only correct by 3%?

The Frazer Valley stats say (according to the FVRB) that prices are holding up over the Vancouver prices; another positive spin on an obviously dead market. As the graph should suggest, over-supply means lower prices…eventually. Be patient.

#23 freewheeling on 01.06.09 at 12:02 pm

re: #6 dd – It is typical of the globe and mail that they will continue to print the trite circulated by the real estate industry and try to pass it of as news – sad really that “journalism” has sunk to such a low. Thankfully the days of newspapers are coming to an end, as i think more and more people will move to blogs such as this one for accurate and informed information.

#24 Gordon C. on 01.06.09 at 12:48 pm

Real estate prices in Victoria are not crashing, nor are prices reducing like a slow leak from a balloon. Prices are declining between the two extremes, like when you sit on a whoppee cushion.

#25 kc on 01.06.09 at 12:55 pm

I would like to see this graph in April when the rest of the (holding out for the market up-tick) properties go on sale…. skiing?? nope more like tsunami wave ….

#26 Rasputin on 01.06.09 at 1:09 pm

Quick note from Cowtown. Appologies if it’s been mentioned before. The big hole in the ground called “The Bow”, Calgary’s huge profile skyscraper project…construction has ground to a halt. Ran out of cash. No work done for the past 3 weeks. There was 100 guys working there every day but now there is 1 or 2. Sweeping or shoveling snow. We have a 1 block by 2 block 6 story deep hole in the middle of Calgary. Wait . I know maybe they can fill it in and make it into a parking lot! That’s what it was before and we can sure use more parking spaces here!

#27 Internal Exile on 01.06.09 at 1:18 pm

I know the 9% is an average, but that seems AWFULLY optimistic for Vancouver, a place who’s only “industry” is one imbecile flipping his piece of crap Yaletown condo to someone even less informed, and where every other source of provincial revenue is based on a booming world economy (tourism & resources).

On the West Side over the last year, people routinely list their houses for close to two MILLION (as Garth demonstrated a few posts back). If it HALVED in value, it would still be near one Million for a crappy house in a “city” that seems poised to take it on the chin from a recession.

Just sayin’…

#28 Uncle Buck on 01.06.09 at 1:51 pm

Winnipeg’s resilient resale-homes market is expected to buck a national trend with a modest increase in average selling prices this year, according to the latest house prices forecast from Royal LePage Real Estate Services.

The real estate firm predicts Winnipeg’s average selling price will climb by four per cent to $204,900 from a projected $197,000 in 2008.

Canada’s average selling price, on the other hand, is expected to fall by three per cent to $295,000 from a projected $304,000.

Royal Lepage also predicts Winnipeg will see one of the smallest declines in unit sales among the country’s nine major cities. It says sales here are expected to fall by one per cent to 11,780 homes from 11,900 in 2008.

That compares to a projected national decline of 3.5 per cent (416,000 compared to 431,000).

“Looking ahead, the economic future looks bright for Winnipeg,” says John Froese, a broker with Royal LePage Prime Real Estate in Winnipeg.

“As employment rates and population figures increase, consumer confidence is expected to rebound from where it was in the last quarter of 2008,” Froese added. “In turn, Winnipeg’s real estate market is anticipated to spring upwards as well.”

#29 K-Money from Vancouver on 01.06.09 at 2:13 pm

Fraser Valley is will be an area hit hard from this RE meltdown. It blew my mind to see so much development going on in that area over the years. It’s not a desirable location at all. They would advertise downtown living in the Valley??? You’re an hour and half from the mountains to go skiing and 1 hour from the Pacific Ocean.

Developers thought that if you put granite countertops in the condos they would sell automatically and it worked in the early years of this boom. I guess people got scared into thinking they will be priced out forever and bought where they could.

#30 dekethegeek on 01.06.09 at 2:49 pm

Looks like the amount of snow vancouver has recieved in the past 3 weeks! gonna git worse before it gets better. Much worse.
(The Real Estate not the snow)

#31 Keith in Calgary on 01.06.09 at 3:39 pm

#18 Bay Street Lawyer……

Yeah, no kidding eh ? Just want Canadian consumers and businesses need….more debt….like that is supposed to help the economy out of the mess ? Imagine what it will do to families and businesses that eventually who won’t be able to make the payments at some point when a cancelled order, bad debt, layoff, or salary cutback hits. Throw more gas on the fire…….

Flaherty is a dildo….no wait….some people derive pleasures from dildos….he is an idiot.

Plain and simple…..our nation’s financies are completely rudderless.

#32 john on 01.06.09 at 4:34 pm

The stock market meltdown started around September and 3 months later our “leading indicator” is moving forward again. I have to admit, I was thinking a more severe drop would be witnessed in the stock market eroding more wealth. If a 3 month downward trend is all the damage the markets felt through this volatility I have learned a valuable lesson.

Two days do not a trend make. — Garth

#33 EJ on 01.06.09 at 4:49 pm

#28: Uncle Buck

Convenient that they neglect to mention that Winnipeg’s RE prices DROPPED 10% between May 2008 and Oct 2008, isn’t it? Have you looked at the MLS lately? Bidding wars are history and those pretentious “offers will be accepted at 6pm on such-and-such date” demands are nowhere to be seen. Just look at the pictures in the MLS. The majority still have green grass from last Summer (or even Spring!) and I’ve even seen a few that have snow on the ground from last winter. These places ain’t moving, and as such, I don’t see even the biggest spinners being able to lie this market away from a downward trend.

Why people continue to listen to these self-serving advertisements is a mystery. Oh, wait, that’s right, when the truth is presented in the news, people start complaining that “the media doom & glooming is hurting the economy”.. So just keep up the lies and everything will be a-ok!

Winnipeggers have amazingly delusional ideas regarding economic isolation. Probably because the media keeps feeding it to them.

#34 eddy on 01.06.09 at 4:56 pm

as an indicator ,in toronto in e02, the beach,
37 sold in dec 07 and 31 sold in dec o8
(in 07 there was a rush to beat miller’s tax)

#35 realtor slayer on 01.06.09 at 5:03 pm

There is a Calgary realtor that is actually predicting that Calgary average residential prices will rise a full 10% within a week:

http://www.bobtruman.com/blogs/bob_truman/archive/2009/01/01/2008-who-made-the-most-accurate-prediction.aspx#comments

#36 Another Albertan on 01.06.09 at 5:24 pm

Part of the market gains can be attributed to the price of oil moving upward.

According to Dennis Gartman and JPMorgan, the DJ-AIG Index and the GSCI are rebalancing and there may be upward of $500M of crude contracts being purchased and $800-900M in gold being sold.

Until market gains are broad-based and sustained through Q4 and year-end reporting periods (which will yield brutal numbers), I will construe these as “rallies in a bear market”.

#37 Downpayment on 01.06.09 at 5:31 pm

Where’s the best place to put money for a down-payment while watching the housing market falls Risk it in the stock market or keep it in a GIC/somewhere else?

That depends entirely on how long you plan on waiting. Short-term interest rates are next to nothing, so in any period of less than six months, just pick a safe near-cash asset or high-yield savings account. If you and your spouse have RRSP room and are first-time buyers, then put $40,000 in there (in similar assets), to get a nice big tax refund cheque. You can withdraw it tax-free when you come to buy. — Garth

#38 Sail1 on 01.06.09 at 5:50 pm

As far as Canadian home builders are concerned the U.S. is a galaxy far far away.

http://www.financialpost.com/news/story.html?id=1144390

#39 midas on 01.06.09 at 5:51 pm

I sold a house in Fraser Valley in 2006; a property that I bought in 2004. It went up a full 200K in value in those two years. And by 2007 it had gone up another 100K. A house I paid 600K for in 2004 ended up around 900K by 2007. However that very same house would not go for more than 700K today, if that. I know this because my neighbor in the Morgan Creek area tried selling last fall and failed and are now listing again at a much lower price.

I vowed when I left that I would buy in there again when that very same house would be available for 350K which I perceived was the right value for that home in 2006 dollars. I forecast that this would happen by 2010 and my neighbors all scoffed since they all had visions of million dollar homes that they would retire on. White Rock is a beautiful place and looks like my 2010 target for a 60%+ drop in Greater Vancouver area real estate prices was not and is not fanciful after all. I may even try Kitsilano this time. Plenty of recently gutted and hardwooded, granited properties down there that will be begging for an offer, any offer by this fall and will be practically given away by next spring. Maybe even Point Gray this time time next year. BC here I come!

#40 dd on 01.06.09 at 6:00 pm

#39 Sail1,

Funny. Look at banking in the last couple of months. Royal, BOM, CIBC, and TD all coming to the market with equity, bonds and preferred stock offerings. If everything is so rosey in Canada why issue equity?

Troubling times are just beginning in Canada.

#41 dd on 01.06.09 at 6:04 pm

#35 realtor slayer.

That guys sounds like the #17 real estate expert but in Calgary.

HA

#42 dd on 01.06.09 at 6:08 pm

#32 john,

Remember the news is going to get a lot worse. Unemployment could be worse that in 81 or 92 recessions. “They” are predicting 9% unemployement in the US at year end. Canada could be higher.

That is if we can pull out of this mess. The stuff the government is doing has never been tried before. If this doesn’t work deflation could grip everything.

#43 dd on 01.06.09 at 6:14 pm

#26 Rasputin,

Quick note: It was said that they guys were off for christmas holidays because all projects were on time. The REIT (H&R ?) that was building this skycraper just got money from Fairfax Financial (about 200-400million). They still have to come up with about 600-800 million more.

So the project is still going.

#44 dd on 01.06.09 at 6:18 pm

#17 real estate expert,

You go girl

#45 Backbacon Crusader on 01.06.09 at 6:20 pm

#28 & 33

There will be no ‘bucking the trend’ in Winnipeg. A friend of mine here in Calgary just bid $20k UNDER the asking price on a $150k property in Winnipeg ($130k is MAYBE what it’s worth, but as he’s buying to live in it, not as an investment, I sure can’t fault him for it), and his bid was accepted without question. In addition, the owner threw in some tools and appliances (including a very nice table saw) to ‘sweeten the deal’ (sweeten the deal? He bid 20k under and had it ACCEPTED WITHOUT QUESTION).

The fact is, across Canada, there are more homes than people looking for them, and the people looking for them better understand the TRUE value of a home, versus what some flipper or crooked real estate agent tells them the value of the home is.

And regarding realtors and their utter lack of ethics…

I know a realtor right now trying to push someone I know into buying a home they CANNOT IN ANY WAY AFFORD. She directed her to a ‘mortgage specialist’ at TD who APPROVED HER FOR A $150k MORTGAGE, despite having a dismal work history and a CURRENT wage that COULD NOT AFFORD PAYMENTS.

In this environment.

#46 Keith in Calgary on 01.06.09 at 6:29 pm

http://www.thestar.com/business/article/562226

Looks like the banks are smarter than our government.

#47 OntarioHouse on 01.06.09 at 6:39 pm

Garth: We saw your interview on CHCH news tonight. You did a great job. Way to go Garth.

#48 john on 01.06.09 at 6:47 pm

I hope you guys are right. Barring an interest rate hike (which is unlikely) and /or job loss those extended will be okay. The interest rate hike is something that would have been interesting to watch and see who was swimming without a lifejacket.
Most changed since Sept:
Interest rates near zero
Gas nearly at half
=personal or family cashflow improved

#49 dd on 01.06.09 at 6:52 pm

Nouriel Roubini Says Worst Still Is Ahead of Us: Year in Review

2009 will be a painful year of global recession and further financial stresses, losses and bankruptcies. Currently, the probability of an L-shaped, stag-deflation is now rising to a third, while the probability of a severe U-shaped recession is two-thirds. Only aggressive, coordinated and effective policy actions by advanced and emerging-market countries can ensure that the global economy starts to recover — however slowly –in 2010, rather than entering a more protracted period of economic stagnation.

#50 real estate expert on 01.06.09 at 6:58 pm

#40 Midas
Morgan Creek and White Rock are in the Fraser Valley.

… the standard is… 5000 sq ft homes, so it is a joke really.
…+one hour rush hour drives to downtown….those will likely drop to at least 2004 prices.

I live on the North Shore…twenty minutes to downtown, three ski hills within a 10 minute drive from my home, dog trails by the dozens and dozens and throw in ocean views too…every day is another day in Paradise.

#51 $fromA$ia on 01.06.09 at 7:11 pm

Royal bank declares that theres no foreseeable housing problem today?

Gath, you must comment… I told my wife that this is a total lie.

That was Royal LePage. The statement is not credible or supported by evidence. — Garth

#52 brazer on 01.06.09 at 7:38 pm

Alcoa to slash 13,500 jobs
http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090106.walcoa0106/BNStory/energy/home

Alcoa employs more than 4,200 workers in Canada in 15 locations and plants, mostly in Quebec and Ontario.

Alcoa spokesman Kevin Lowery wouldn’t give any specific job numbers but said the production curtailments for Canada were outlined in November

“It’s not targeted at Canada or Quebec,” Mr. Lowery said from Pittsburgh.

———————————————-

not yet.

#53 brazer on 01.06.09 at 7:47 pm

U.S. faces years of trillion-dollar deficits, Obama says
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/562558

Even as he promised to fight waste and to make tough budgetary decisions, however, Obama warned that the nation could face trillion-dollar deficits for years to come. Eight years ago the federal budget ran a surplus, and the deficit on Sept. 30 was about US$455 billion.

===============================

trillion = $1,000,000,000,000 …..that’s a lot of zeros.

#54 brazer on 01.06.09 at 7:50 pm

German mogul kills self over financial meltdown
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/562534

BERLIN–German billionaire Adolf Merckle has committed suicide after his business empire, which included interests ranging from pharmaceuticals to cement, ran into trouble in the global financial crisis.

=============

this is the second billionaire in the past couple of weeks who has taken the leap into afterlife.

#55 dekethegeek on 01.06.09 at 7:53 pm

#17 Real Estate Expert
You left out Burnaby. It’s not Vancouver either.
But….. Burnaby has about as much chance as Vancouver as being the Financial Center of “Cascadia”

You heard it here first. :)-

#56 Bottoms_Up on 01.06.09 at 8:25 pm

A trillion dollar deficit is approximately $2500 per citizen, or 10 grand for a family of four.

Anyone else finding the realtor.ca site slower these days? Perhaps more people going online to check out the value of homes for sale in their own neighbourhood?

#57 Jeff Riverdale on 01.06.09 at 8:28 pm

I wonder if the guys from Royal Lepage are taking a ‘page’ from the former NAR ‘Chief Economist’ David Lereah who was the RE guru in the US upto about 2006. Turns out he was just trying to put a positive spin on any numbers because the people he represented paid him to do so.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/05/real_estate/Lereah.moneymag/index.htm

#58 dekethegeek on 01.06.09 at 8:43 pm

#51 Real Estate Expert.
Well if your splitting hairs.
North Vancouver isnt Vancouver. You have a different mayor, taxes, police force, garbage collection,etc.
Oh, and that 20 minute drive to Vancouver aint during “Rush Hour” If you dont hit the Lions Gate bridge or the Second Narrows Bridge before 7:30 am your screwed! ( yes folks this international financial hub has 2, count em 2, bridges to the North Shore and Whistler).
That 20 minute commute can swell into a “hours long nightmare” if some wacko bankrupt realtor decides to “jump” off either bridge( why do jumpers ALWAYS pick Rush Hour to end it all ?) Or a rainy multi vehicle collision on both bridges! 20 minutes on Sunday morning is more like it
Gee it never rains in Vancouver.
You heard it here first.

#59 real estate expert on 01.06.09 at 8:46 pm

#57 deke the geek

…Burnaby is not in the Fraser Valley, so it must be in Vancouver…you’re home there will make you very wealthy…don’t sell it.

btw, are you a Jason Mraz fan?…Geek in the Pink from his AZ album…great song.

#60 $fromA$ia on 01.06.09 at 9:06 pm

That was Royal LePage. The statement is not credible or supported by evidence. — Garth

Uh, ya sorry Garth.

Oh boy did Flaherty look nervous earlier on today when talking to the media. After some questions he began to warm up to the reporter telling them that they had good questions before answering.

Blah, I can’t wait till a reporter asks him if he thinks zero down and 40 year mort was a mistake!!!!

#61 Another Albertan on 01.06.09 at 9:21 pm

@49:

Anyone who says they are experiencing cash flow improvements due to gasoline being 40 cents cheaper per litre than a few months ago is already living on the edge.

$400/mth on fuel just turned into $240. If five dollars and change per day in fuel savings is material to your bottom line, I would argue that there are more important items to be addressed. Sure, at the extreme left-hand side of the income curve, the dollars may be very meaningful, but for middle-class and beyond, I’ll hazard the $160 in savings is probably blown in some other manner – a couple of pay-per-view movies, another 40-pounder of Crown, a nice dinner, what-have-you.

One bad harvest in one of the world’s bread basket regions and you’ll see the fuel savings burn up in short order because of future trading on LaSalle in Chicago. So much for cash flow improvement…

Interest rates near zero mean effectively nothing to the majority of the population. The actual paid-interest on debt servicing is always appreciably higher. Anyone with the means to qualify for large-scale financing in this environment and at these rates already has their financial house in order.

Everyone else is going to have to ride this though… and their mileage will undoubtedly vary.

#62 Torquemada on 01.06.09 at 9:26 pm

“Anyone else finding the realtor.ca site slower these days? Perhaps more people going online to check out the value of homes for sale in their own neighbourhood?”

Yes. But I don’t think it’s a flood of people to the site that’s causing the slowdown. Rather, I’m guessing that less realtors = less income for realtor.ca = less pay for maintenance = slower site.

#63 lgre on 01.06.09 at 9:27 pm

“There is a Calgary realtor that is actually predicting that Calgary average residential prices will rise a full 10% within a week:

http://www.bobtruman.com/blogs/bob_truman/archive/2009/01/01/2008-who-made-the-most-accurate-prediction.aspx#comments

there is no point of even visiting this guys site, he only adds the posts that agree with his predictions and kiss his ass.

#64 ThumbsUp on 01.06.09 at 9:28 pm

Royal LePage and those who claimed our Economy was healthy & sound couple of month ago should fit the following slide as No. 13 & No. 14

Why Wall Street could go to jail

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.parloff_quotes.fortune/

#65 TheFirstRick on 01.06.09 at 9:43 pm

#51 real estate expert on 01.06.09 at 6:58 pm
……. dog trails by the dozens……
=====
Thanks for the inadvertent insite on some of your previous posts. In the future, try not to inhale when you pick-up, OK?

#66 TomOfMilton on 01.06.09 at 9:45 pm

Oh…realtor.ca I hadn’t used but I tried to use mls.ca and as you described…unbearably slow. I just gave up. I was just looking for larger parcels of land to drop in listing price. :) Something 20-30 mins away by car. Place for hobbies, recreation, maybe long term investment and even a bit of the survivalist instinct. ;)

#67 squidly77 on 01.06.09 at 10:34 pm

Skiing anyone? i am a good skier but i wouldnt ski on that quadruple black diamond widow maker

anyone notice that the shelves are not full at safeways and superstores recently..
i was out today and superstore had no tomatoes no lettuces and they didnt even have campbells cream of mushroon soup
got a great deal on spam though 4 tins for $6.99
and libbys baked beans with pork @ 3 tins for $4.29

#68 squidly77 on 01.06.09 at 10:40 pm

i see there was another big money man who committed suicide last night in germany..he stepped in front of a speeding train
i suppose that preferable then waiting for the people that you had lost billions of their euros getting a hold of you and exerting there rage
yup..a $1,000 bottle of double malt some good pills and shes all over..

#69 squidly77 on 01.06.09 at 10:43 pm

theres a correction coming to the tsx within days perhaps even tomorrow that might be sizable
no strawberry smiles..sunshine and lollipops yet..not by a long shot
this has been a pure suckers rally

#70 squidly77 on 01.06.09 at 10:51 pm

about a year ago i purchased a good quality water purifier
the prices have risen substantially since
now this will freak the women and the softer men out more than eating squirrel meat
but the model i have will even purify human urine..and that might prove to be valuable

#71 Rural Rick on 01.06.09 at 11:09 pm

Just finished reading some interviews with people who lived through the Great Depression. The newspapers at the time wrote very little of the daily suffering of the people. It was too upsetting and the advertisers wanted upbeat stories then too.

#72 RB on 01.06.09 at 11:32 pm

Talking to a real estate guy in Kelowna today. He said there are 2400 condos on the market today and another 1600 under construction to come on line in 6 months and no sales.

#73 Winnipeg is no Different on 01.07.09 at 12:17 am

#28 & 33 & 46

From Winnipeg FP on Sunday:

“Cole Castelane, a Winnipeg realtor… for more than 30 years, says the Winnipeg market will always do well. (ALWAYS?!). We are a small, efficient city (WHAT THE HECK DOES THAT MEAN?). We are not as influenced or impacted globally as other major cities. (I.E. WINNIPEG IS DIFFERENT). Winnipeg is a still a healthy, buoyant market and will get stronger within the next 12 months” (NO SUPPORTING EVIDENCE PROVIDED – “’CAUSE I SAID SO” WOULD BE A START).

Same article from realtor Rachel Gendron: “We had a climb, but in our true Prairie fashion, a slow, safer climb.”

Not so according to this chart: http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/ResidentialRealEstate/HousingPrices/housing-pri-winnipeg.pdf

In fact, the chart shows a slight dip in prices in ‘06 before a price explosion, no doubt fueled by the introduction of the 40-year mortgage product.

#74 Cleveland Damned on 01.07.09 at 12:45 am

#51 real estate expert on 01.06.09 at 6:58 pm

I live on the North Shore…twenty minutes to downtown, three ski hills within a 10 minute drive from my home, dog trails by the dozens and dozens and throw in ocean views too…every day is another day in Paradise.
===
Gimmee a break. Twenty minutes to downtown happens when the Seabus captain gets pissed off at his wife and uses 100% engine rpm to blast out of the Quai dock faster than a ski boat.

Park Royal just over to Stanley Park rowing club used to take an HOUR in mid-afternoon, sometimes more if a ferry just unloaded. Two hours to Kits. Not much better if you have take the cut and 2nd Narrows to go to work or uni.

The cat fights outside north van bars on the weekend were entertaining though, in a perverse kind of way…

#75 Phil g on 01.07.09 at 3:05 am

Hi Garth, has Ozzie Jurock given you his forcast far the R.E market for Canada ?

#76 MLS Load Speed on 01.07.09 at 9:34 am

Re: MLS loading speed

It doesn’t look like they’ve had a spike in traffic big enough to slow their servers. Probably just technical difficulties.

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/mls.ca

Closer to home…

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/greaterfool.ca

Looks like Garth’s traffic is up 160% over the last 3 mos. Sample size is smaller, though, so Alexa is less likely to be accurate.

Even more notable, perhaps, is that people are Googling Garth’s book/blog more often: http://www.google.com/trends?q=greater+fool

To show up on Google Trends is a feat unto itself. Congrats, Garth.

#77 dekethegeek on 01.07.09 at 8:34 pm

#76 Ozzie Jurock ?
WTF?
That hack would never say shite if his legs were tied together and he had diarrehea !
For the last 7 years he’s done nothing but pump Lower Mainland Housing!
” Qvick! Buy annudder property! You von’t be sorry! It’s a buyers market!”
For the past 4 months he’s totally avoided the Lower Mainland market( surprise, surprise,even Realturds know when they cant sell an igloo to an eskimo)
He’s still pumping property but its all in the Southern U.S. ” Vat a great time to bee a buyer in Phoenix! Dont delay zees deals vont last forever!”
Gee Ozzie, what about all the Greater Fools you shilled property to in Vanburg.What are they to do now? Buy in Arizonia?
He’s a sales commission based Hack.

#78 Dean on 01.07.09 at 8:52 pm

Hey Garth
I just bought your new book and my wife was wondering if you will be selling prozac to go along with it?

Of course. $29.95. — Garth

#79 Phil G on 01.08.09 at 12:51 am

#79

Geez, I could not have wished for a more down to earth responce to my post.

Thanks