Well, enough political crud for now. Let’s rejoin our regular programming, already in progress.
One goal of this twisted little blog is to hold up a mirror to the real economy so we might know what to expect, how to react, how to profit from change, and how to protect ourselves from it at the same time. I think we all understand these days are without precedent. Oh sure, the economy has been rotten in the past, people have lost jobs and houses and financial markets have tanked. But, this is different, in a terrifying new way.
For example, can you fix your car? Could your local service station pump gas if the power was off? Do you know if the Loblaws you shop at depends on just-in-time delivery? Can your neighbourhood bank dispense cash if it’s offline? Do you have a vegetable garden? A horse? A generator? A well?
The answer to each of those questions is ‘No’ for more than 90% of the population. And while the connection with today’s financial stories (CIBC profit drops by 50%, AT&T cuts 12,000 jobs, oil collapse costs Ottawa $6.5 billion in lost taxes, crude hits $44, Chrysler Canada going bankrupt, Abitibi closes a Newfie mill after 100 years) may seem tenuous at first, it’s not.
Unlike in the 1930s, or others times of financial stress, investor losses and deflationary decline, today we are all helpless. Most families have no backup systems, no savings, no reserve, no plan, no place to get food or fuel if the stores are closed, no water or power if infrastructure cracks, even for a few weeks.
This means relatively small disruptions in the way things normally work have the potential to cause chaos. Take money, for example. Most middle-class people don’t carry any. In fact, it’s almost become a sign of lower socio-economic status to buy a tank of gas or pay for a hotel room or purchase new shoes, with cash. Instead, the vast majority of us use credit or debit to get through our days, with trips to the bank actually being few and far between.
Unfortunately, debit and credit only work when the lights are on. In a power outage, bar code readers don’t function, electronic cash registers go dark and online authorizations cease. In other words, no cash, no sale – if you can even find a store open. And the only gasoline around will be at rural stations which park a generator in the back. This means on the day when the first dimming occurs, you will be SOL if you don’t have a full tank and a wad in your purse. But, sadly, nine of ten people will not.
And why should we worry about failing infrastructure? Because of the financial crisis, which shows every sign of deepening and lengthening. Unemployed people and failing companies do not pay federal or provincial taxes. Falling property values will result in lower municipal revenues. More families without stable incomes will boost the demand on governments. Collapsing commodity prices mean a big hit for governments who depend on royalties.
Look south to see the results. More than a few American towns and cities have gone bankrupt. California is on the verge of financial collapse. The US government is sinking into an unthinkable abyss of debt. Public finances are disintegrating, and yet politicians know it is impossible to raise personal or corporate taxes. So, this is not going to end well.
Expect cuts in services, lower levels of response and public sector layoffs. This could mean the next ice storm has the lights out for 12 days, instead of 24 hours. And if things start to spiral into deflation, then reduced government support will become the norm. Meanwhile a credit crunch can prevent the grocery store from borrowing enough on its line to stock its shelves, or the trucking company from getting insurance or enough diesel, or – God forbid – convince a faltering bank to cancel revolving credit, and turn your card balance into a demand loan.
Many may dismiss my cautions, saying a rerun of the Thirties is impossible. And they`re right. This time we`d be screwed.
Foreclosures in Vancouver?
– – 
95 comments ↓
Global news tonight (TV) was showing a Van Condo that was showing the power off, as the realtor showed the news gal the apt. he was saying that last year the owner (presumed male) purchased the place for $700K. today the price had dropped to $499K. The owner couldn’t sell the place so he walked away from it. Fully furnished – just up and left it all.
They news segued into the fast rising foreclosures that are hitting hard in the lowermainland. They were talking to a finance lawyer and he was saying that with the way the layoffs and the OVER-EXTENDED are being hit hard on the 40Y Zero downs, foreclosures are 150% increase YOY. and he was saying this is just the tip of the ice burg when you factor in how many people are in deep water.
nope… no sub-prime here
cheers…
PS i was trying to find the show on their web site, if any one can find the news reel feel free to link to it here in vancouver.
I have posted it. — Garth
Found this on Mish’s blog in the comments section of one of his posts…. Worth posting here…
Question:
“Why would bailing out consumers be any different than bailing out GM or Citigroup or Fannie & Freddie or…? ”
Answer:
Because consumers have been cheated out of the decent (any?) real interest rates they would have earned in a non-FRB banking system without a Fed able to create reserves from nothing via open market purchases. As a result they were driven into speculating with their homes with loans from the bank themselves. In case of default, auctions in which the owners could bid would determine the market price. The banks should then be forced to lower the principle to that price. It is not a bailout. It is recognition of the housing bubble the Fed and the fractional reserve banking system has blown. A bailout would be for the taxpayer to buy those mortgages at bubble prices.
Hmmmmm….. I could see something along these lines being proposed soon….
I remember my uncle telling me about the ‘Dirty Thirties’ as a time that wasn’t so bad. As a farmer, he made do and wasn’t deprived of food, shelter, or water (the necessities). Tools clothes, and equipment had to be mended instead of replaced, you steeped tea leaves a few more times before tossing them, etc.
I think we are screwed if things go wrong today. I you doubt it can happen, talk to someone from Argentina (a once wealthy nation before bad national policies and corruption bankrupted it).
I don’t think things will ever get so bad in Canada as they were in Argentina if only because we don’t need to import fuel or raw materials and we are a relatively well-educated population (read: trainable). However, I think a return to a more self-sufficient society will be very painful transition for most of us.
Thanks Garth for speaking up and reminding folks of what could be in our future.
When the nickel mine up in Sudbury and Voisey bay announced that they were shutting the mines down, I thought to myself, is this the beginning of what is to come? Project after project is being canceled. That will result in layoffs onto a population that has no cash nor can get any credit. This is a viscious cycle that has the ability to feed back on to itself at a rapid rate.
Is it really going to get worse Garth.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/081205/business/us_it_electronics_retail_sales_cea
It looks like it may just stay about the same.
Hmmmm………can you say recession.
A recession…….only a recession.
Food on the shelves.
Just Corn Flakes instead of that expensive Bran cereal I usually buy.
And back to domestic beer instead of import.
Cost of being a Greater fool:
700,000 buying price – 499,000 selling price = $201,000
Being a reader of Garth’s blog = priceless
I’ve seen “Days on Market” quoted for Toronto as 41. Well, I suspect it’s a lot longer than that – just not easy to correlated and calculate.
We can be pulled out easily are those homes that have expired, terminated, suspended or where the deal has fallen through.
Any realtor can get you these numbers:
2007
Jan-Nov:
Expired Suspended Terminated: 63,283
Expired Only: 22,011
Deals Fallen Through: 402
Nov Only:
Expired Suspended Terminated: 5,361
Expired Only: 1,649
Deals Fallen Through: 40
2008
Jan-Nov:
Expired Suspended Terminated: 78,866
Expired Only: 25,548
Deals Fallen Through: 743
Nov Only:
Expired Suspended Terminated: 7,899
Expired Only: 2,684
Deals Fallen Through: 205
The most notable thing to see is that in Nov 2008, the deals that fell through were four times what they were in Nov 2007, and about half of the entire period between Jan-Nov 2007!
sorry, in my last comment, the homes that fell through in Nov 2008 should be five times what they were in Nov 2007 (not four times). Even worse!
Canadian bankruptcies surge in October: report
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/548493
The number of personal bankruptcies in Canada soared by more than 20 percent in October as individuals came under increased pressure from deteriorating economic conditions, according to a report released Thursday.
The Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada said a total of 9,468 bankruptcies were filed in October by consumers and businesses. That represents a 7.2 percent increase from September and a hefty 21.1 percent jump from the same month in 2007.
Emergency Preparedness, from the Government of Canada:
http://www.getprepared.ca
Ontario builders seek relief in budget
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/548098
Carl Gomez, vice-president of research for real estate consultants Bentall Investment Management, said prices have to fall nationally by at least 10 per cent from their peak to return to normal valuations. In Alberta and British Columbia, where prices have gone up a lot quicker than the national average, values may have to fall by as much as 30 per cent. However, prices may fall further than that as the market seeks to correct itself, Gomez stated in a report released this week.
Credit Suisse to cut 5,300 jobs after loss
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/548279
ZURICH–Swiss bank Credit Suisse said on Thursday it was cutting 11 per cent of its workforce, or 5,300 jobs, as it revealed it made a net loss of about 3 billion Swiss francs ($2.5 billion) in October and November.
#3 Dan writes “I don’t think things will ever get so bad in Canada as they were in Argentina if only because we don’t need to import fuel or raw materials and we are a relatively well-educated population (read: trainable).” Argentina is actually an exporter of natural gas and until very recently a net exporter of oil. It has manufacturing, raw materials, agriculture and a very well educated populaton. If you think we can’t have some type of national retraction on that scale, I would agree with you, but for different reasons. I don’t think Canada would go that way because we have and, in fact, demand “good government”. We have corruption, but not on the scale that Argentina has. We have strong provincial governments and key services like health and education are provincial responsibilites while in Argentina all roads lead to Buenos Aires, the capital. Also we have professional police forces at all levels of government. We take an awful lot for granted here. All the same, the points in Garth’s article are well taken. Prepare for the worst and have a plan.
Garth, your observations are spot on.
We only have to look at the aftermath of Katrina down south to see how fast things can turn bad fast.
All is not lost though, just talk to someone who grow up in Eastern Europe or Russia or Cuba, even in times of war and economic upheavel, people still had food to eat(just enough to survive) and cars to drive.
In this sense I truly think that Canadiens are different then Americans. In true tough times people here will help their neighbours. Look at the charity and goodwill of Canadians, the food banks never have empty shelves and there is always a free hot meal to be had with all of our social assitance/charity orgs.
I haven’t the faintest clue what to make of this article in the National Post…
The Bank of Canada’s balance sheet now lists 42% of its assets as ‘other.’ Canadians should be worried
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2008/12/03/the-bank-of-canada-s-mystery-assets.aspx
GM cutting shift at Oshawa: CAW
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081204.wgmoshawa1205/BNStory/Business
“The plant is down as of next week until Jan. 12 and everybody is back for a few weeks and as of the first week of February the third shift is down,” she said.
“It’s is indefinite but it is supposed to be temporary.”
GM could not be reached for comment.
Builder will pay YOU to buy their townhouse in Edmonton!:
http://ottawa.kijiji.ca/c-housing-housing-for-sale-35k-below-market-PLUS-will-pay-half-your-mortgage-W0QQAdIdZ92302576
But I thought RE was strong in SW Ontario:
http://ottawa.kijiji.ca/c-housing-housing-for-sale-ATTN-RE-INVESTORS-W0QQAdIdZ92099106
Garth,
Sometimes you can be so depressive.
I have yet to hear a solid argument about why Canada is heading toward a great depression, but i also haven’t heard a solid argument about why we wouldn’t stave one off either.
I am prepared, maybe fitting into the 10% of CDNs that have spent their whole adult lives with a worse case back up plan. But timing is an issue. Head for the hills now, and look like a lunatic, or head of the hills when the hordes and masses hit the panic button – that might be too late. No gas stations to gas up?
Maybe timing is the issue I am having with all this doom and gloom. Maybe I’m just not convinced that we are headed for hell yet?
Do you live in a cave, with a vegetable garden, or is your current home a magic parachute away from your bunker? I mean, surely timing has to be issue?
Canada is unique. A state without a government until 26 Jan 09.
Mr. Harper used to say that government was the PROBLEM. Very good. Canada is now blessed with NO government and the wonderful free market happens to be working just fine except for billions of dollars of bailout funds needed by banks and auto makers.
The real problem is that Canada now has NO government and that is unique among G8 Nations.
Since having a constitutional government was such a bad thing, Canada should flourish in the next few months. The wonderful self correcting market will lead all of us to future enlightenment.
B.C. grocery store chaos talks…
talked to a recently layed off construction workers, he was askin me were to find work and sayin that at least is motel is paid till the end of the month. he was sayin i couldnt afford anyfood rigth now, i told him about the food bank…i had follow me inside, weird
the okanagan valley project he was workin on is half finish, studio’s startin at almost 300k in a summer tourist spot…their half sold,lol, i said to him to get constructive with his job and told him about the local cart man who makes a killing recycling empties…
there is something like 1100 sfh units on holds in building permits around here alone, some crazy retired nhl players projects building high end condos startin at 3/4 of a mil…guess the beautifull houses and motel that got levelled for absoluttly nothing now i guess,lol park space…and all those displaced and evicted retiree’s got the hassle to move for shit.
people throw ayay so much thing, it’s overwhelming. in a small town like mine, the flea market dumpster are filled daily by the staff who cant handle all the donations…bet yu in the 30’s they didnt quite have this problem.
no wonder, wall-marde is doing record sales..by the way., you wont get this at wally’s world=i got a nice centerfold pic of maggie trudeau famous pic in a vintage porn mag from the cart man, priceless…the sexiest first lady ever. sorry Justin, yu got a hot mom…
had some politics talk with a raspy granny, by the newspaper stand, she luvs Jack… and called all the rest a circus, she’s so rigth it’s such a circus except they wear suits and tie or chanel and dior dresses….
the tide is rollin in, good set’s comin in, stay tuned, thres a copy of the pic for a kitkat break away from the chaos…http://www.filibustercartoons.com/New%20Canada%20Guide/content/notables/marge.jpg
well just a teaser, maybe we can start a contest about who gets the best idea about solving this crisis gets the real thing,lol,
@#5 (Derrin)
I will admit to being a lot more Polly-Annaish than Garth, but *you* have to make up your mind.
First you say: “It looks like it may just stay about the same” then a few sentences later you are all: “back to domestic beer instead of imported”… You can’t have it both ways; either you think it’s the apocalypse or not.
“But, this [time] is different…”
That’s what they said in 74 and 81, again in 90. It was’nt.
“Expect cuts in services, lower levels of response and public sector layoffs.”
What you are saying in fact is that the welfare state is in the process of collapsing.
Well I’ll be damned! Who could have predicted that?
Since when do utopias end badly?
We’ve become so accustomed to debt and the economies have become so accustomed to consumerism that we really don’t know any other way. The consumer is now the driver of the economy. The last ten years or so should never really have occured. The only way it happened was because of debt and slack lending practices.
The frugal and the financially smart and prudent, no matter how the economy does, always do better. If you’re in debt, then in a deleveraging economy, your headwind is that much greater.
Own two cars? Twice the hit.
Own a big house in the middle of nowhere? Take a huge hit to commute and maintain.
Have lines of credit, mortgages, and credit card debt?
You get the point. All economies, to an extent, need to get access to credit to be fueled, but we have become too reliant on it and have overextended ourselves, propping up a false and delusional debt-fueled economy.
We shouldn’t blame anyone but ourselves. I see debt-fueled silliness everywhere, including with our neighbours. (Renovations seem to happen in cycles, coordinated monthly… likely because the next paycheque is in, and the interest can be paid off with it) Heck, if Bank of Canada lowers their overnight rate, does it mean we have to borrow and afford more lifestyle? Nope. To me, it means that we live the same lifestyle and can pay off floating rate debt faster.
The next wave of defaults will be credit cards and commercial properties.
Ontario sheds 66,000 jobs
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/548923
THE CANADIAN PRESS
OTTAWA–Ontario shed 66,000 jobs last month, leading the country to the largest decline since the deep recession of 1982.
The province’s losses pushed the unemployment rate to 7.1 per cent from 6.5 per cent the previous month. Overall, 70,600 jobs were chopped across the country.
================
please don’t be alarmed, ‘the fundamentals of our econcomy are strong’….
Personal bankruptcy up 20% compared to Nov 2007
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/548714
The problem with the coalition is that they don’t realize that they are trying to catch a snake. Give Harpo enough lead time to congure up some solution that is best for his lunk heads. Liberals must ditch Dion… stop telegraphing their moves and act with precision. The fact that mild mannered folk like Broadbent don’t like Harpo politics or the man himself should speak volumes to all Canadians who are in a haze over this dictator.
Liberals and NDP have seats so they represent real people so doing the porogue dance basically is Harpo telling his non followers to shut the hell up. The GG listening to this “dick tater” speaks of how simple minded she is. Opposition is allowed under the rules to express their lack of confidence in the government. Guess she doesn’t get that. Harpo has given himself enough time to concoct some solution that pacifies the simpleton Canadians but not enough time for Liberals to get a new leader.
Real estate in canada…forget bout it. 25% min decline .
I sold my 2800 square foot Oakville home in March of this year to a builder and then proceeded into a rental. Our gain over 8 years was in the vicinity of 200%. The idea was to wait for a smaller lot to come up and then build a new home. Is this a good time to be buying or should I wait a bit longer? I have the feeling that Oakville may be one of those areas where a bubble had formed. What do you think?
pbrasseur: “That’s what they said in 74 and 81, again in 90. It was’nt”
You are absolutely correct, each of those times the Chicken Littles were out in full force, and you are right each time was a simple recession.
The difference now is you didn’t have the US President saying “this sucker’s going down” , or the Canadian PM at a G20 meeting talking 1929 etc. The leaders in those times put up a brave face and didn’t legitimize those ideas.
I too figured the same as you at the start of this recession, and like previous ones forced myself to refuse to believe the depression talk etc… but ….now? Even now part of me refuses to accept it, but part of me really fears “this is the big one”?
===========================
JET: thanks for posting those numbers. Very enlightening. Perhaps you could do that regularly?
How come the Real Estate Boards don’t publish those stats?
Can we really trust ANY realtor to provide them if we asked?
In Calgary:
Costco prices have gone up: The creditor cannot allow the chain to carry foods on credit. There is a form email given explaining this to shoppers if they complain.
Foreclosures are mounting: There are many people who overcredited and cannot spread their savings and bills to include their mortgage.
Superstore on Country Hills: Generally messy, and understocked as a rule. If an inventory income supply doesnt make it, they’ll be out of food for days.
Housing costs NW Calgary: Still double what they are worth. So far out of line with reality. I guess it takes oil to collapse to $20 a barrel and loss of jobs to get this in line with reality. Surprising that there isnt moderation, a balance. From what I have heard, this should be close to the prior busts. Or worse.
Good read:
“The liquidity trap
Commentary: Financial engineering seems worse than the alternative
By Jim Anderson
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST Dec. 5, 2008Comments: 78SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — This year one of the best performing asset classes is cash. ”
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/The-liquidity-trap/story.aspx?guid=%7BF9D12BF3%2DECA9%2D46C2%2DA315%2DDCF1A8A9566F%7D&dist=SecMostRead
pbrasseur: “What you are saying in fact is that the welfare state is in the process of collapsing. ”
No. The collapse of the banking and the housing sector due to corrupt business practices (credit default swaps, derivatives, etc…) would be responsible for the destruction of these services.
I’m so sick of the BS talking points that people like you spout out without providing any support for your claims. Universal health care did not create the housing bubble, minimum wage hikes did not cause the sub prime mess. It was “creative” bookkeeping by “intelligent” banker and shrewd marketing to consumers that inflated the bubble at an unsustainable rate. We all know what happens next.
Enough with the fear-mongering, it’s time to address the *source* of the issues.
@ Kash is King
74, 81, 89,… 2008
All these (and this) recession are the same: The economy overheats and unsustainable growth stops. People stop buying, inventories rise and people get laid off. Then after a while things start to pickup again. Human are like that, they create crisis.
But what you say is correct, this time you sense a bit more panic from the political class. I think there are good reasons for that and not necessarily related to the actual state of the economy but rather to the current status of the welfare state and the threat that economic downturns represent for it.
The welfare state already has to deal will unsustainable actuarial deficits, crumbling infrastructures and decaying services. This recession comes on top of that. Therefore the panic among politicians who in fact are willing to throw unlimited number of billions (they don’t have) to the problem.
The economy can recover, no doubt about that. The danger though is that by trying to sustain the welfare state utopia a bit longer world politicians make this crisis much worse than it needs to be.
I have a question
First off forgive my ignorance
I am trying to figure out how “this time”
is any different from previous downturns
When was the derivatives market as it
exists today born?
Can we really trust ANY realtor to provide them if we asked? no
The similarities to today are remarkable
http://www.1920-30.com/business/
Information overload. I didn’t think the markets and the dollar would keep sinking, but they are. Can we be in denial that things could possibly get worse ? I think alot of the really bad stuff is being kept from the public in the sake of mass panic and total lost of confidence. A month ago the word ” depression ” was not uttered, notice how the word is used more in the mass media. Perhaps slowly introducing us to this very real possibility of becoming a reality. Would society be ready for this hardship? Prepare for the worst and pray this nightmare does not unfold.
How credible this story is, I don’t know, but
something is cooking:
New “amero” paper currency exposed!
http://www.effedieffe.com/content/view/5493/183/
#4 Jonathan
Do you know what kind of time frame or turn-over it takes to get bodies back into the mine after it shuts down?
———————————-
Demand for everything has dried up, especially commodities, but will this create an even bigger bubble in oil, gas, PGMs and agriculture.
I’m reading that gold production has dropped YOY since it started rising again in the early part of the decade.
Is this contraction in demand going to cause another bubble in commodities in the near future?
———————————-
#30 Kash is King
I assumed that Canada would be somewhat insulated being that export a lot of raw materials and agri/wheat which are needed for basic survival. But as each day goes, we’re witnessing just how much trouble the USA is in.
They are not producing anything but debt and I really would have loved to be a fly on the wall listening in on that scolding China gave the USA…
“The United States should speed up domestic adjustment, raise its savings rate and reduce its trade and fiscal deficits.”
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/headline_news/article.jsp?content=b1204228A
Hey Garth, is that photo off one of the Haliburton Interment camps, a la Rex 84?
Q: Can we really trust ANY realtor to provide them if we asked?
Yes, I’m certain there are honest people with a real estate license out there who will.
(We do have to allow for some optimism in human kind in all of the doom and gloom!)
STEME101
I would definitely recommend that you wait! Consider yourself lucky that you were even able to sell this year. So many people are sitting with their homes unsold.
This is going to get real ugly.
I’ve noticed that even builder homes are going unsold in Oakville. So much inventory and empty lots. This is affecting all of the GTA.
So just sit on your money for the next year and watch all of the sellers squirm. You will end up getting a good deal if you wait.
Any one for a $475,000 Dog House …
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081205.reMays1205/BNStory/
The new Minto towers @ Yonge and Eglinton now have 57 units for sale. Every day it seems to go up. It’s going to be a blood bath in the spring. I’m guessing half of that building is speculators. Click my name to see the map. Plus some joker wants $400,000 for a 1 bedroom, one bath. I guess he’s drinking the CREA Kool-Aid!
http://www.mls.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=7788695
Just in time for the holidays: Short feel-good video on how to make delicious squirrel melt sandwiches. Sounds like we could all use some good and cheap comfort food about now:
http://www.wonderhowto.com/how-to/video/how-to-hunt-squirrel-and-make-sandwiches-246432/
Enjoy! :)
There are a lot of people barking in their overpriced shacks in Calgary, I can hear it. Dogs barking throughout Alberta as oil reaches good levels. Oil should be priced at $20 per barrel, all the electric cars coming out shortly should fix that dumb industry. They are enjoying no government here in Alberta as the Canadian Constitution has been violated. And still the mls recommends out of this world Calgary prices. I can hear the clock ticking on a big collapse. Watch for the government to implode next January as the majority wins as it should be. Hopefully though the country stays together, or the Canadian dollar will be $0.01 to the American one.
ok … looks like we know BEN BERNANKE has been printing money like crazy because he believes he can prevent this deflationary cycle from occuring.. What he is DOING is creating and injecting lots of inflation into the system which will probably hit sometime in 2009..
from what I am understanding
I’am trying to understand how will that affect us, won’t everything go up including house prices and make debt less. whereby in deflation if it occurs at a 10percent clip has it did for a few years in 1930-1933 .. It would make you debts 10 percent more the next year ..
I’ve ben reading how deflation must be stopped , at whatever cost.. But I have yet to hear from anybody on what this inflationary mess will do to us in our everyday lives and consequences .. Garth had made note this is not zimbobwae then what will it be and will it lead to the distruction of the currency and create a new one valued to gold once again.
I think we need to discuss this Garth as surely Ben’s now dropping money from helicoptors has fast has he can print it and with interest rates in the U.S heading to zero .. what lies ahead. As these are truely unchartered terriotories the U.S is heading in.
#31 Calgary Rip Off……..
Funny you mentioned that comment about grocery store shelves being empty.
My wife and I went shopping to the Superstore on Southport Road SW and then to 3 different Safeways to try and locate a few specific products we could not find there.
There were several 5′ and 10′ sections of row shelving completely out of stock in Superstore……and things at Safeway that we could not find either, which we normally had no problem locating in the past.
I am not talking baout low volume widgets for sale, but what seem like basic staples such as plain yogurt, some meats, some frozen foods, certain beans and rice, detergent…..etc…..
Odd that……..
Pathfinder :
How credible this story is, I don’t know, but
something is cooking:
New “amero†paper currency exposed!
http://www.effedieffe.com/content/view/5493/183/
FYI – The author of that article is “Hal” Turner, an American white nationalist and white supremacist . Make of that what you will.
#41 JET on 12.05.08 at 11:58 am Q: Can we really trust ANY realtor to provide them if we asked?
Yes, I’m certain there are honest people with a real estate license out there who will.
(We do have to allow for some optimism in human kind in all of the doom and gloom!)
============
If you know of a realturd who WASEN’T incessantly pumping the market when the rhetoric and misinformation was in full flow, please let me know. (Many still are) I’ll use him/her when my time comes. The industry desperately needs some third party intervention and a total revision, but as individuals realturds are like everyone else; the good, the bad and the ugly. Open up the MLS system and pay realturds an hourly wage. This alone would turn what has become a disservice back to into a respectable service.
What’s Different This Time?
Our fast access to information. Blogs, financial web sites, real estate stats, real-time data…have we ever been able to learn so much so quickly? Some info is accrurate, much info is skewed to reflect source bias.
From a media standpoint, “recession” has a scary ring, but “depression” is weighty and historic in a way we haven’t seen since 1930…you get the idea.
If panic is escalating faster or is more intense than in previous recessions, it’s because we the people “know” more.
I am trying to balance my economic concerns with the understanding that I have never before been dialed into so much info, so quickly.
“Kitchener1 : In true tough times people here will help their neighbours. Look at the charity and goodwill of Canadians, the food banks never have empty shelves and there is always a free hot meal to be had with all of our social assitance/charity orgs.”
I wouldn’t bet on that. My parents were children of the “dirty thirties”. Fortunately, my grandfather kept his job through these tough times and there was always plenty to eat in a house of 8 children. My mother recalls my grandmother making sandwiches and always putting one or two more plates on the table before dinner, in case some unemployed man came knocking at the door for a free meal.
So my mother says everyday there was a stranger eating with them, or sandwiches would me made him.
Those were the “dirty thirties”, a time where religion was running people’s life, a time where there was little or no crime, people wouldn’t even lock their doors, they would share what they had, there were no drugs, children weren’t as spoiled, teenagers didn’t get up at 2 in the afternoon and did some helping around the house. People had the basic skills to survive like growing a garden, canning food and repairing things. No, I am not a moralistic person but the mentality in those times was totally different.
I don’t want to imagine the social chaos such a great depression will bring to our present society… and I wouldn’t want to be in the same situation as my grandmother if somebody knocked on my door asking for a sandwich. I wouldn’t open him the door, unless I knew him and still…
Sorry but the next great depression is going to be worse than we can imagine. Nobody is going to trust anybody. Crime will soar to the point where you won’t want to leave your house and will always be looking behind your back.
Sure there will be charities and places where a hot meal can be had. Except the lineups are going to be much longer, and the supplies much smaller.
Evans-Pritchard said the “dirty thirties” are going to look like a walk in the park compared to what’s coming.
For those bubble price-sticky-clingon house-sellers out there:
Price is Right: How to Sell Your Home Now
Topics:Personal FinanceMarcie Geffner, Bankrate.com | 04 Dec 2008 | 01:27 PM ET:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28054976
It’s kinda fun to use real examples, so here’s a condo implosion from desireable Yonge & Eglinton in Toronto:
43 Eglinton – 10 units for sale
88 Broadway – 13 units for sale
212 Eglinton – 11 units for sale
2181 Yonge – 10 units for sale
1982 Yonge – 11 units for sale
2191 Yonge – 47 units for sale
I like using real examples — here’s another.
Five houses for sale on my street.
$394k, $384k, $394k, $525k, $335k
The one for $525k has been on the market since June. The one for $335k went on the market four weeks ago and is already conditionally sold. The owner of the $525k just took his off the market, waiting til the spring pickup.
The $384k just listed two weeks ago at $420k, and has adjusted already. Had an open house last week – no one showed up.
#51 The First Rick,
Regarding your comment about hourly wage for real estate agents – would you be willing to pay them if your house does not sell or for the time they spend showing you houses to buy? That’s what hourly wage implies.
Obviously, those who blindly and wildly spin without any facts to back up what they say, ought to be slapped. And, we do laugh and ridicule those who do. But, I don’t agree with putting the entire industry in a bad light with one brush.
There will be no spring pick up, Oil will be 30$ by then and we’ll be in the process of electing another government. The shit has hit the fan and we’re in for a rough ride. The sad part is that, the vast majority of people are oblivious to what is happening around them.
My city Calgary is going to witness a serious change over the next 12 months and i’m looking forward to seeing all the greedy speculator bastards losing it all, which in turn will allow hard working and saving their money folks afford an average house.
To help stave off some of the doom and gloom here–I am getting a job offer in this economic environment!!! WOOHOO!!
Goal 1: pay off debt (3 months)
Goal 2: save 5% for a down payment
Goal 3: become a vulture and buy next fall
Peace!
#57 JET on 12.05.08 at 6:37 pm #51 The First Rick,
[i]Regarding your comment about hourly wage for real estate agents – would you be willing to pay them if your house does not sell or for the time they spend showing you houses to buy? That’s what hourly wage implies.[i]
=========
No, the firms they work for can pay them an hourly wage. If they don’t perform they can get laid off or fired like the rest of us would. This would be a huge incentive to act in the clients interest vs the current system of playing the proverbial devils advocate in sheeps clothing.
===============
[i]Obviously, those who blindly and wildly spin without any facts to back up what they say, ought to be slapped. And, we do laugh and ridicule those who do. But, I don’t agree with putting the entire industry in a bad light with one brush.[i]
=============
Sorry, the entire industry has brought the wrath upon themselves. Vote anyone??
Oh where oh where has Vultur Gone?
Oh where oh where can he BEEEEEEEEE?
Vulturs cant fly when they’ve eaten TOO MUCH CROW !
How does crow taste with salt-an-pepah anywho?
I remember all them snarky email rebutals from da Vultcha back in the spring and summah when he was tellin us WE were the idiots for NOT BUYING REAL ESTATE !
hooo hooo hoooooooooooooooooooo
Greetings from the Republic of Western Canada
…bash all you want Eastern Canadians…
No more handouts for Atlantic Canadians, who only work six months of year then collect Pogie.
No more handouts for Quebecers, who never work a single day of the year.
and no more handouts for Ontarians, who work hard but steal tax dollars from Western Canadians.
It will be “Adios” soon enough from Western Canadians to Upper and Lower Canada.
Enjoy your pine beetles and $30 oil. — Gilles
Me and my wife were looking at houses last month. Our RE Agent didn’t push us too hard at all. After researching a bit we decided not to buy. We’ll wait a bit first. When I told my agent that… He said that we shouldnt buy untill we thought it was a good time. He didnt know what was going on in the market.
When I’m ready – I’ll go back to him.
Everyone buying a house isnt a dirtbag speculator.
I’m slowly packing the cupboards with canned goods and getting ready for a worst case scenereo.
Canada loses 70,600 jobs in month
http://www.thestar.com/article/548923
The November job losses, coupled with a Washington report showing the United States cut 533,000 workers in November, leave “no doubt that the Canadian economy is in recession and the U.S. contraction is accelerating,” said BMO Capital Markets chief economist Sherry Cooper.
Half-million jobs vanish as economy deteriorates
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081205/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown
WASHINGTON – An alarming half-million American jobs vanished virtually in a flash last month, the worst mass layoffs in over a third of a century, as economic carnage spread ever faster and the nation hurtled toward what could be the hardest hard times since the Great Depression.
There were several 5′ and 10′ sections of row shelving completely out of stock in Superstore……and things at Safeway that we could not find either, which we normally had no problem locating in the past.
You probably have not noticed it before but the Superstore runs out of stuff all the time. Their inventory system sucks.
I have a Supestore, Coop & 2 Safeways within 5 minute driving distance and they are all fully stocked with all the squirrel I possibly need. I go to the T&T in Beddington for my praire dog meat.
#62 BC Resident on 12.05.08 at 8:24 pm Greetings from the Republic of Western Canada
…bash all you want Eastern Canadians…
No more handouts for Atlantic Canadians, who only work six months of year then collect Pogie.
No more handouts for Quebecers, who never work a single day of the year.
and no more handouts for Ontarians, who work hard but steal tax dollars from Western Canadians.
It will be “Adios†soon enough from Western Canadians to Upper and Lower Canada.
=========
Oh fellow BC resident, why don’t you STFU!!! Go live in a country with civil war, genocide, armed conflict if that is your preference over our federation. Yes, less than perfect but for the most part the envy of the world. As a fellow “BC Resident” who’s family has been in this country before confederation, I have three words for you and your sanctimonious crap; GO F*** YOURSELF!!
The 30’s?
FDR was a vacant beam of light. A master of the double game – nobody could ever pin him down. Not even those closest to him. Truth was back in the 30’s government was run by economic illiterates.
<b<BC Resident</b<..
taking pot-shots at fellow canadians makes you look foolish and small
im an albertan and have worked in ontario when the west was slow..a beautiful province with friendly people
people like you are not welcome in the west and equally not welcome in the east..so what to do
Re : post 53 Makeorbreak. I will have to disagree with you on your post. I am sure that things will not but as civil as they were in the thirties and you have a lot of good points about people ‘s skills then compared to now. I do not think the country will go down the tubes. A lot of people think crime will go rise and I am sure it will but I don’t think it will to the point were you will not be able to leave your house. Criminals will steal but if no one has money to buy stolen stuff that racket will not last long. I mean really what is our population compared to the number of law enforcement officers now. I don’t know the stats but if everyone were to break the law (ie speed, not stop at stop signs, steal etc) they could not keep it under control. The only reason most people don’t break the law is because we have morals and values. I know that will change to a degree but I don’t see us going to the Wild West scenario. People will help each other. The people in the country will do better then the people in the cities since they know each other a lot better. Maybe I look at the glass as half full. Time will tell.
Enjoy your pine beetles and $30 oil. — Gilles
I am learning on ways to cook them so I can eat them. Survival of the fittest! I have already stopped eating wild salmon, and now prefer to dine on the sea lice that will kill off the wild fish stocks. Sea lice congi is my personal favorite so far.
#66 Calgary rocks.
If you shop at T and T, try the balut onetime. It sounds and looks disgusting but is really quite good. Balut is a fertalized chicken egg, and eaten when the embryo is still very tender. Squirral and Balut? wouldn’t have to worry of the neighbours trying to steal your food supply.
Wall Street rallies up 250 points with the news
of 533,000 more on the breadline
Way to go guys
Garth:
Do you think that it might be necessary to produce a cookbook on how to prepare squirrel meals!
Does anyone think Gold will go down a bit before going up like crazy? ($600 or so)
The stock market should have one more big tank in it yet….
law and order in this country..forget it
heres my law
http://www.shootinguk.co.uk/imageBank/b/Benelli_Montefeltro_shotgun_trigger.jpg
dont own one if you wont use one..
The First P Rick writes: “The industry desperately needs some third party intervention and a total revision… Open up the MLS system and pay realturds an hourly wage. This alone would turn what has become a disservice back to into a respectable service.”
Look, illiterate boy: Real esate is heavily regulated. Because consumers like you keep playing the victim card and fail to take responsibility for your bad decisions. The more regulation, the greater our costs, and the more we charge. Sputter all you want, that’s how regulation works. Read some Milton Friedman if you’re able.
I pay a LOT of money to help maintain MLS. You’re a bright fellow; create your own MLS. Nobody’s stopping you. Call me when it’s ready.
I will accept an hourly wage that you decide on, when I get to choose YOUR wage. Fair enough?
You are not forced to use a realtor. Nobody is. To suggest otherwise is the whine of a victim. You are a victim.
If you actually bothered to contact a realtor instead of just hiding under your mom’s covers avoiding the boogerman, you might find that more than a few of them would be happy to show you the numbers as far back a they’re available.
This is an interesting read, Mish makes the comparisons from Japan’s lost 15 years and the bursting bubbles in N. America.
U.S. Housing Market Crash- How Far To The Bottom?
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7633.html
“In the meantime I am sticking with my model that suggests there is another 3-5 years before housing bottoms in the US. I also expect the UK, Canada, and Australia to follow similar paths, offset only by the start of their respective housing busts.”
By Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Garth, I may have missed something here…
Reading this article …
U.S. Treasury Bonds the Biggest Bubble of All?
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7624.html
the Author is telling the numbers that the feds are in hock for in the bail outs, then he states this point…
Then there’s the exploding budget deficit and the ballooning bailout commitments of the U.S. Treasury. By my count the U.S. government has loaned, invested or committed …
$620 billion for industrial nations, including the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, National Bank of Denmark, European Central Bank, Bank of Norway, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Sweden, and Swiss National Bank;
My Question is… when did the US fed give the Bank of Canada any cash? and why, or what for?
any one up on this ?
thanks
Steve in Kitchener Re : post 53 Makeorbreak
I agree with Makeorbreak. My grandparents lived in the 30s and they got through it with growing their own food and sticking together in the large family group.
These days everything is declining. A lot of churches have difficulty staying afloat finanicially and they are the ones who usually help out the poor and desolate. The family size is declining so less help and support. And most people including myself don’t know even how to grow a simple garden or to make bread from scratch.
The only things that have gotten bigger are things such as cars and homes.
Those were the “dirty thirtiesâ€, a time where religion was running people’s life, a time where there was little or no crime, people wouldn’t even lock their doors, they would share what they had, there were no drugs, children weren’t as spoiled, teenagers didn’t get up at 2 in the afternoon and did some helping around the house. People had the basic skills to survive like growing a garden, canning food and repairing things.
All I know that I am trying my best to do what’s best for my little family:
1) sell my house old
2) disaster kit
3) Buy Garth’s new book
4) Lock my doors
The Canadian economic crisis is playing catch up with the rest of the planet.
This explains the near vertical graph posted by Garth on Vancouver RE.
I think all the “Canada is insulated from the correction happening in the states” B.S. has just made matters worse.
The general public/media is just now, catching on that we have a major ecomomic storm coming our way.
The Canadian billions, and American trillions of $ bailoiut packages will do nothing but lengthen the time
needed to clear the massive debt accumulated.
Like posted above, we have become depedant on others for services, restaurants, ATMs and ‘just in time delivery” of most retail products.
I have mentioned this in past posts, this becoming less about realestate, and more about a society having to PAY THE BILL, for years of living way beyond their/our means.
BEST CASE, we get away with.
-a 12-18 month recession.
-30-40% R.E. price correction.
-8% unemployment.
-10-12% inflation for a few years after.
WORSE CASE, we deal with,
-24-? months deppresion.
-50-75% R.E. price correction.
-20%+ unemployment.
-Severe deflation of most possesions/assets.
-Civil unrest by the angry masses at their goverment
for letting this happen to them. [like they played no
role]
-Martial law, [in the states only I hope]
-Eventual war to bring all nations out of the economic
funk.[worked last time]
Don’t panic, but do prepare,
“Something wicked this way comes” [Macbeth]
take care,
BS
Excuse the spelling, it’s late.
BS
The funny thing about these stimulus packages is that they are being promoted by the biggest debtor nation in the world, the US. Everyone has jumped on the band wagon as if the implications of not doing it would be dire. The US’s problem IS DIRE and they will print and borrow as much as they want. This MAY provide a sugar rush solution but invariably will end up pushing the problem for later generations or governments to solve. Schiff and Turner are more right than I care to imagine. It will get much much worse .. A deep recession maybe a mini depression.
As for real estate…. here in Toronto a virtual stand still…
even now just b4 Xmas there are new listings coming out. Tons sitting there…. alot of top end multi million dollar homes coming out. Alot of commercial space for sale as well. There is blood in the water…. January will be a disaster and show considerable price drops or those not desperate take houses off the market.
Funny, I’m making more money that I ever had and we are suppose to be in a recession/depression. People are collapsing all around infinancial chaos. Ha!!!
The big three just asked for over 6 B of our hard earned tax money to help pay for their incompetence and stupidity. Since when do we take resources from taxpayers and successful companies and hand it over to failures, and poorly run firms ? The government needs to allow market forces to do what they are going to do anyway. There is simply too much capacity in many industries, auto being a nain one. Weak competitors are driven out of business, that’s how it goes. Yet these clowns come asking for money from those who do well and work. They will probably get some as no politician wants to say no and watch the pain under their watch. Gov’t better force nasty conditions on these dinosaurs: 1) Fire all senior management, 2) No money for SUV plants, 3) A cut of wages and benefits so that all three are paid same as the imports, 4) And share some $ with the companies that have it right – Honda and Toyota. I can’t even believe I am saying this..the Austrian economics i tend to lean on for much of my thinking would take care of them. No money for no one. Gov’t would allow them to go BK and restructure and focis on supporting all unemployed workers from all industries by extending benefits and also having them re-train for new careers. The thought of my hard earned tax money going to these overpaid and poorly run companies makes me sick.
JO
#62
and no more handouts for Ontarians, who work hard but steal tax dollars from Western Canadians.
Never mind the fact that up until a few months ago, Ontario has always been a net contributor to the equalization program, sending many billions every year to other provinces, including BC. Up until recently, BC was considered a have not province, and therefore was receiving money from Ontario. Not to mention that other provinces receive more money per capita than Ontario for EI, health, education and other programs. While the West has been getting wealthy off of the commodities boom, Ontario’s manufacturing was on its death bed thanks to the rising dollar and tanking exports to the US, yet the feds continued to send Ontario’s money to the “have not” provinces. What a raw deal Ontario has gotten in the federation. I’m surprised the separatist movement is not in Ontario. Quebec gets the sweetest deal of all.
The 30’s
Yjalmar Schact on the other hand worked economic wonders. A combination of spending on infrastructure, re-armament and club Z pulled Deutscheland from the economic abyss.
“JO on 12.06.08 at 10:24 am The big three just asked for over 6 B of our hard earned tax money to help pay for their incompetence and stupidity. Since when do we take resources from taxpayers and successful companies and hand it over to failures, and poorly run firms ? ”
The working class are by far the most ignorant and stupid. Where is the outrages and cries about the financials who got hundreds of BILLIONs of DOLLARS. Just in Canada alone the banks got $75 BILLION to buy BAD MORTGAGES from the banks which now are starting to go bad. The financials will never complain about the HUNDREDS of BILLIONS they got from the government but want to point the finger to the auto sector for the $35 billion?
BS wrote / “I have mentioned this in past posts, this becoming less about real estate, and more about a society having to PAY THE BILL, for years of living way beyond their/our means.”
Well BS, I must say that your words are no BS. This is the prophesied breakdown of the worldwide economic system done completely by design by the powers that be (soon to be the powers that were!) Something wicked this way indeed comes bearing gifts of handouts and bailouts and stimulus packages all of which by design will not fulfill the stated goal but will fulfill the intended goal, that being the destruction of all economies worldwide. This will then have the masses (what’s left of them) begging for a NEW DEAL that will lead to one worldwide centralized banking system in which all rich and poor, bond and free must participate in order to conduct any economic activity, even simple ones like buying groceries. Are we so naïve to believe that the cries being heard worldwide for economic reform are simply to create a more benevolent and egalitarian economic system? Are we so naïve to believe that problems of the magnitude that we are witnessing just sprang out of nowhere? No comrades! Do not be so naïve to believe that all animals are equal; remember some animals are more equal than others! And the more equal beasts have a plan for all of us and here’s a hint for you workhorses out there: GLUE FACTORY! To unite mankind and make us all brothers our loving and fearless leaders have plans already in place that will become apparent in the not too distant future. Without economic unity the world cannot be united and united it must be for after WE ARE THE WORLD as our totally non–propagandist media has been constantly reaffirming these past three decades. Pavlov was no match for CNN. And those of us foolish enough to resist the master plans of the master race will be re-educated or turned into Soylent Green, oh so delicious and nutritious Soylent Green! Stay tuned, the fireworks have only just begun.
according to this guy everything is ok..lol
http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/article/548033
SteveinKitchener: Criminals will steal whether you have money or not. You may get stabbed in the back not only for your money but for your coat as well (maybe even for a squirrel). You have no idea what hungry, desperate people can do. Imagine what it will be when municipalities and provinces cut their police and law enforcement workforce. Slow snow and garbage removal, roads unrepaired, desease breakouts, prolonged power outages aren’t going to make things easier. We may even experience martial law.
Yes, people will support each other in small communities and within families and friends. I wouldn’t want to live in an isolated place with no neighbors or in a very big city. I already have one German shephard, and I will get another one soon. So when I have to leave the house, I leave one dog in the house and bring the other one with me.
Time will tell indeed how bad it will get.
Danny, I disagree with providing banks with any money. It is equally wrong. Those mortages as far as we can see right now are not all bad. The answer to that is 12-18 months away when our RE markets and economics catch up to the US and Europe. Even under a deep recession scenario (most likely), the majority of those assets should be OK as it is not that easy to walk away from a home in many areas of Canada. People who still have a job will likely be paying their mortgages. So the 75 B given to the banks will likely not be all lost. But i am still against this nonsense.By giving money to poorly run enterprises, we engage in the moral hazard you hear about. Make no mistake, this bailout rage we are seeing in the last few months and that we will see for the next few months will come to an end in a bad way. The government would be better off spending that money on helping all unemployed people in all industries and reform the financial system to never allow this amount of debt to ever accumulate again. Make no mistake, things will not turn around on a sustainable basis until enough debt has been destroyed via paydown or default with asset prices falling as a by product of this. Any government actions (or stimulus) will simply delay recovery and make things worse.
#77 islander on 12.06.08 at 2:10 am The First P Rick writes: “The industry desperately needs some third party intervention and a total revision… Open up the MLS system and pay realturds an hourly wage. This alone would turn what has become a disservice back to into a respectable service.â€
Look, illiterate boy: Real esate is heavily regulated. Because consumers like you keep playing the victim card and fail to take responsibility for your bad decisions. The more regulation, the greater our costs, and the more we charge. Sputter all you want, that’s how regulation works. Read some Milton Friedman if you’re able.
I pay a LOT of money to help maintain MLS. You’re a bright fellow; create your own MLS. Nobody’s stopping you. Call me when it’s ready.
I will accept an hourly wage that you decide on, when I get to choose YOUR wage. Fair enough?
You are not forced to use a realtor. Nobody is. To suggest otherwise is the whine of a victim. You are a victim.
If you actually bothered to contact a realtor instead of just hiding under your mom’s covers avoiding the boogerman, you might find that more than a few of them would be happy to show you the numbers as far back a they’re available.
+=+=+=+
Islander comes back after a week long absence once again. The last time the Islander Realturd posted it was lambasted by the crowd, it slithers away, attends a few Realturd “Raw Raw” gatherings and returns with a brand new plan, er, same old plan. Too bad you don’t get it Realturd, *I AM* deciding your wage, for the next few years anyway, and I suggest you practice “would you like fries with that?” I’ll keep my eyes open for you when I drive through the Burger Dung take out line in Victoria.
#47 Calgary Rip Off
With oil prices at 20 who is going to afford electric cars?
#77 islander on 12.06.08 at 2:10 am
I pay a LOT of money to help maintain MLS. You’re a bright fellow; create your own MLS. Nobody’s stopping you. Call me when it’s ready.
This has already been discussed and is a false statement….people tried in the past and were shutdown….why spin the BS again?
#89 midas.
Agreed.
Would you elaborate on “soon to be the powers that were”. “They” are many groups not just our government. You think the sheeple will finally wake up?
And by Glue Factory are you referring to the coming population reductions?
Just want to be clear in understanding. Thank you.