Tomorrow in Parliament the finance minister will deliver an economic statement and begin a process of trying to save the nation from financial ruin. If he repeats the statement he gave during a television interview this week, he will say:
“Eight weeks is a long time. When you look at what’s happened in the global economy in the last week eight weeks, it’s staggering. And the election was called in September. No one in September – no one – had ever suggested the Canadian economy might go into recession, and that is now a definite possibility.â€
This, of course, is a lie. The Canadian election was called early – just days before MPs were to go back and debate the economy – because the government and its bureaucrats knew the crap storm which was coming. During that election we wasted precious weeks when Canada could have been preparing. Instead, we were told (a) Canada is not the US, (b) our economy is solid, (c) our banks are perfect and (d) there will never be a deficit.
Last week at APEC our prime minister alluded to 1929 and said this is about as bad as it gets. The OECD (and every economist) says we’re in recession. The banks are issuing new shares in a falling market to raise money. Ottawa bailed out Bay Street with $75,000,000,000 in tax money. The deficit could be $14 billion within a year, says the Parliamentary Budget Officer.
Is the finance minister an idiot? Or does he think we are?
For the record, Mr. Flaherty, below are words published here at least eight weeks ago. You know, because you and your boss read them.
September 15 (nine weeks ago)…
The full implications of this can’t be clearly seen by anyone at the moment, but I’d say this is what Canadians can expect:
* The stock market will be hammered, eroding the value of every investor’s portfolio, RRSP and pension. This brings household wealth down, drops confidence and is nothing but negative news for real estate as liquidity is drained away in financial losses.
* Credit is going to be a lot harder to find. Banks on both sides of the border have already pulled their horns in a little, and that can only accelerate. Look for far tighter restrictions on loans and mortgages to new borrowers, to builders, for renovation and lines of credit.
* An inevitable result is a sharp acceleration in the decline of the Canadian market. Without a steady flow of new investors and buckets of borrowed money, there is no alternative, especially in real estate markets where prices are unsustainable…
Those Canadians who thought we could end up with a five-month adjustment, after the Americans have been through a three-year Armageddon, had better think again. This is just the beginning, pushed along by big events like those unfolding on Wall Street and in Washington this week.
Circle these days. You’ll want to recall when the lights started failing.
September 17 (nine weeks ago)…
We’re in the early days of a credit freeze which will affect almost everybody in North America, and most voters in all Canadian ridings now being contested. What’s happening on Wall Street, on Bay Street, on financial markets globally, will not stop there. Already the contagion has wiped billions off the worth of the American middle class, and the next phase could hobble that country itself. To think we’re immune is delusional.
North American stock markets have plunged. More than 20% of all the wealth represented by the Toronto market has been erased in the last 90 days. Three of the biggest investment banks in America have failed. The largest US mortgage companies were taken over by the government. The biggest insurance company is a basket case. At least a hundred more US banks could fail. Liquidity in the world’s largest capitalist country has evaporated. America’s triple-A credit rating is being called into question.
Here’s what this means to Canadians.
Soon – two or four or six months from now – getting a bank loan, mortgage or line of credit will be tougher. First-time homebuyers, people needed refinancings to pay debts, retirees, entrepreneurs and small business owners could be SOL. Banks will simply recoil from risk.
The residential real estate market could be choked off in the process. With mortgages tight, the economy slowing and unemployment rising, the ranks of buyers will be thinner. Desperate sellers will cut prices in a spiral which has already started. For the past nine months I’ve forecast a decline of between 15% and 40%, depending on the housing market. I may have been too optimistic.
Commodity prices, especially oil, could tumble as a serious and multi-year recession dramatically quenches America’s thirst for energy. This has already begun, as crude gyrates wildly, rising and falling more than $100 a barrel this year alone.
Oil might actually go right back to $50, making the oil sands marginal. Combined with a deep freeze on bank credit, well, so much for the Western miracle.
Overall, expect a sharp economic slowdown, the erasing of billions of dollars in real estate equity and retirement savings, and a new normal of falling consumer prices – and incomes – which could last several years.
Now, to the politics of the matter….
Putting Mr. Harper back in office will guarantee the picture I’ve painted will come to pass. In this election he hasn’t said his reckless spending will stop, that he’s got a jobs plan or understands the real estate market. His government has no money left, and even spent the contingency reserve. When the economy sputters later this year and into the Spring, revenues will fall and deficits result.
This is the greatest threat the Canadian middle class has faced in a generation. Just the housing woes alone will be painful. Look south for a preview.
October 1st (eight weeks ago)…
This much, we know. The US economy is in recession and the times will get worse for months and months to come. The mess, as feared, has slopped over onto everyone. Canada, Europe, China – all will be impacted. Commodity prices will keep going down for a while, along with real estate. Billions more will be lost. This is the start, not the end.
Banks will fail, but not here. Ours will just stop lending money to lots of people and businesses. Condo developments will go bust. Marginal companies won’t make it. Car sales will fade with car loans. Inflation will become deflation. And you can stop worrying about high gas prices.
Debts will become unrepayable for many people, so I hope you have few. Interest rates will be going down as central bankers try everything to stop bad from becoming worse. Albertans, and the oil sands, will not be so envied soon. Prices for just about everything will fall, as will the value of your home.
Regardless of whether or not the $700 billion financial bailout passes the Senate tonight or Congress on Thursday, global confidence has been dealt a major blow. With less confidence, there is less credit. And without free flowing credit, economic expansion stalls. This is what terrorized stock markets on Monday, and will continue to do so.
I suppose it is possible the United States could slump into a quasi-depression, taking us with it. But that’s unlikely. A protracted recession – a year or two of negative growth – is quite possible. Investment portfolios could lose a third to a half of their value. Home equity will fade by, perhaps by as much in certain markets. The value of your mortgage will not fall, even though your wages might. This is deflation – when cash grows in value because every other asset is declining.
Although Stephen Harper did not know the events of today would take place, he knew the danger of imminent financial chaos. So did I. And if you’ve read this blog, so did you. I have spelled out the reasons for real estate deflation, falling family net worth, a protracted US downturn and the considerable impacts on Canada. I told you how the Harper government policies of 0/40 mortgages and of cutting the GST instead of income taxes would make us more vulnerable. And I have detailed why massive higher government spending and a blowing of our surplus would make such a time as this more difficult.
Harper knew the danger, as did the finance department, the head of the Bank of Canada, the PMO strategists, and you and I. That’s why he alone triggered the election, not chancing to wait for Parliament during the very dangerous month of September, when he’d have to answer to the people daily.
________________________________
My conclusion: You are about to witness the greatest government intervention in the marketplace in Canadian history. More spending, deficits and debt. Mounting deflation will be countered with an attempt at reflation, along with more dollops of revision. I hope you kids out there like paying income taxes. — Garth
90 comments ↓
@ Garth
“The OECD (and every economist) says we’re in recession.”
not the conference board, they are still predicting growth
go figure…
http://www.truthout.org/112308Y?ref=patrick.net
Martin Feldstein; a renowned former economist and advisor to Ronald Reagan is of the view that things will get much worse still. He is not a person who usually makes gloomy predictions, but this time he is. Scary!
Garth, the 2 goons our PM and finance ministry frick and frack LOL!! i have no confindence in these clowns
I have been following Garth’s site for some time now, and although I agree with his opinion about the housing market, moral hazzard in the finance-, real estate- and government-backing functions, I think his threads are now bordering on useless.
No different than the media in this regard (needing a story, by-line, and cause to back), Garth you are wasting your enviable position as a visible and vocal public figure by promoting the downward spiral beyond what needs to be said. This is a sort of reverse-triumphalism and it wreaks of self-interest (reading your blog, it’s hard not to imagine that you’re profiting via some heavily-leveraged bear market index).
Remember, what goes down must come up (too!). I didn’t start reading this blog to have the news regurgitated verbatim in my face. A long list of links to popular news stories is NOT what this blog was about when it was useful. It was about direction and the future.
Thanks for nothing Garth (in recent weeks).
You have no idea what’s coming. — Garth
I’m glad to have been sent your ‘site’. hmmmm I just had this gut feeling that something was NOT right with Harper, his ‘cronies’ and I questioned many about why he would call an election as quickly as he did, at the same time as the Americans what timing! Keep the masses too busy focusing on their own fears keeps the masses off ‘centre’ from really studying what’s going on in their own government. THAT’S how government gains control over the masses! And sadly, we all just sit back and take it!
Garth….
The worst thing a gov can do in declining economic conditions is to raise personal income taxes.
If they are going to raise anything they should raise consumption taxes but this is couner productive when you want to stimulate a recovery.
The only viable thing to do is to cut gov spending at all levels. Cut taxes to encourage corporate investment. And cut personal and consumption taxes to encourage spending.
They should also go after coruption but I won’t hold my breath :)
Garth, good on you for calling these assholes out. Those of us paying attention have seen this recession coming for well over a year.
“I hope you kids out there like paying income taxes. — Garth”
===========
Do like me; work full time, have a small business, digest the income tax act, maximize every deduction, bend the rules to your advantage and last but not least, treat your relationship with Canada Revenue Agency as a full contact sport. Eventually you will be able to accurately fill out an assessment appeal form blindfolded.
Talk to your tax and spend friends in Ontario, who were incapable of balancing their budgets, even in good times.
The west will do just fine without your constant shots. Right now your province is a shit hole of high taxes, high unemployment and bankrupt industries. Tell me who in their right mind would move to Ontario right now?
Start by fixing Ontario, if you’ve got extra time on your hands.
Maybe our gov’t will send us a $100 stimulus cheque. Like Bush did! And all will be well again. ;-)
Oh, our BC gov’t also sent us a $100 cheque to offset the carbon tax. And all is well.
@Garth 2 on 11.26.08 at 12:04 pm …………<<< Personally i find your comments rude! Many people who frequent Garth’s blog have been saved from financial ruin by listening to his comments and advice (myself included). Who exactly do you think you are?….and really anyone with half a brain would appreciate the time and effort Garth puts into this blog and his efforts to help us understand where we are headed. I guess you prefer the dishonest,sugar coated flaherty approach. Get a life!
This is completely directed at @Garth 2. I may be young but seriously are you on crack?
Sure being positive is a lovely ideal but knowing the worst case scenarios and being prepared is what is going to make sure you manage the times ahead. Even if the worst doesn’t happen I would rather be prepared then suffer.
As for posting of the links. I think it’s great. I don’t have the time/patience or skill to find and sort through all the articles out there or go back and review. The fact that he does is great. Reminds us to be cautious and stay informed.
Does the self interest you speak of mean promoting his book? Well, makes sense since this is his blog, he owes you nothing and P.S. in case you haven’t noticed his last book was right.
So rock on, Garth, sell you book, be realistic, and say your “I told you so!”s…..You deserve it.
garth, what is coming?????????
Garth , look at the news today about BCE Canada’s biggest company , finally someone gets it there that loading 32billion in debt on a company in these times is suicidial.. the campany which I happen to work for was doomed to fail..So KPMG finally said with citibank and Bank of Scotland both backers of this ludicris sheme are in big trouble.. it was bound to fail.
KPMG told the company that based on current market conditions and the amount of debt involved in financing the leveraged buyout, it would not be able to deliver an opinion that the company would be solvent. The deal’s closing is conditional on a favourable assessment.
BCE (BCE/TSX) said it is still working with the advisor; however, should KPMG be unable to deliver a favourable opinion on the stated closing date of Dec. 11, “the transaction is unlikely to proceed.”
YOU THINK .. Where have all the leaders gone.. In telco’s, in manufacturing and in politics .. God help us.
he did today for those at bce , unfortunately the stock tumbled $13.00 because of it..
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=995520
Wasn’t every political party drumming the same tune 8 weeks ago? No deficits, no problems, etc. Did most believe it?….I doubt it. Since when does a politician speak nothing but the truth….save yourself and few others. Canada will not be left behind in this global recession. Harper called the election early, not early enough, to try and salvage his position as PM. If he called the election a month earlier, he would have certainly have had a majority.
While I realize that the economy will affect the real estate market, and it is worth noting the severe downturn Ontario, and perhaps Canada faces. However, I agree with Garth #2, in that your threads are less about real estate these days and more about head lines.
Turns out that the general public is not as dumb as smarmy Harper thought. Looks like his incompetance is not creating any confidence.
Crash.
Reduce government and cut icome taxes. People will have more money.
The B of C may adopt ZIRP to stimulate the economy, currently there is talk of it in the UK, and we know what it did to Japan (nothing)……..so what ?
You can give me a mortgage at 0% and I will still not buy an overpriced cardboard shit shack in suburbia at today’s prices, or even the prices 6 months to a year from now. Maybe at 50% off……..but not know.
You can give me a significant tax credit and I will still not buy the same shack…..nor a car…..nor stocks………
You can cut me a stimulus cheque for $1-2-3-4-5K…..and guess what, it’ll go into my savings account, right beside my $400 of Ralphbucks. I will not spend it.
For the first time in my personal recollection, our government, and those worldwide, is totally powerless to stop or help the unfolding chaos subside…….and do you know what ? I don’t care……my powder is dry…..literally.
The comments coming out of Canada’s politicians mimick those of the rest of the world. They mirror the seriously flawed Keynesian economic theory which calls for massive “spending” (spending borrowed money from current and future taxpayers) during recessions to offset the lack of private spending. Often, these policies are implemented with aggressive rate cuts in an attempt to devalue the currency with the hope it provides stimulus to the economy by making exports cheaper and encouraging borrowing. From a political perspective, this misguided and discredited theory provides a wonderful excuse for politicians to spend money they do not have on a large list of pet projects – many of which benefit a select group of friends and large campaign donors. Of course, this whole theory overlooks the realities of public mood and psychology. The devaluation also punishes the people who were prudent by saving and living within their means. Excessive debt / leverage got us here in the first place. The public at large is in savings mode (a necessary ingrediant for a healthy and sustainable recovery)and looking to paydown debt. Japan has followed this theory for the last 18-19 years and it has resulted in disaster along with a record debt to GDP ratio. No government can avoid recession – it is the market’s way to deal with excesses and malinvestment. The market will complete its corrective process regardless of what any politican thinks or does – most of what they do simply make things worse. That said, running deficits during recessions is not a horrible policy as long as their is a plan in place to deal with it and to allow a foundation to be built for the next recovery. This particular crisis is a deflationary collapse and one can compare it to the military equivalent of nuclear war (tactical at this point, not strategic). The economy will recover only once enough debt has been paid down or defaulted on and asset prices have come down to a range near (and probably below) their long term average. There is a large infrastructure gap in our country at this time so I support spending on high priority projects as an exception only in this time we’re in. The government can do many things and there are many ideas from many people who are highly qualified. That in itself disproves the mainstream economic theories being taught today as “sciences”..an art is more like it. The best way is deal with this is to:
1) Spend on high impact infrastructure such as roads and bridges, and especially green energy. We need to re-build our grid and extend this to making buildings more efficient. The enviromental impact will be good too.
2) Cut the base income tax bracket reasonably. Cut small business and corporate income tax rates aggressively and include cuts in payroll taxes such as EI. Gradually raise the GST by one percent/year for two years and couple it with cuts in government spending once GDP has stabilized.
3) Reduce bank leverage down by at least 30-40 %. The US banks have about 12-1 so that needs to come down. Better yet, the world should move off the fractonial reserve system. Force all banks to open up their books and mark all loans to market within 6 months. Create a regulated market where all impaired loans will trade. Re-capitalize banks and require ownership stakes, dividend cuts, and fire senior bank executives of any FI needing money. The current accounting rules on the treatment of these loans are a joke and can best be described as burying ones head in the sand and hope things will come back. Total nonsense in a world where the fundamental problem is the lack of trust which comes from a lack of transparency.
4) Strengthen financial regulations so that underwriting standards are consistent and more robust. Double regulator salaries and beef up audit teams to focus on large scale regulatory audits of all lending FI s. Most mainstream economists would laugh at 3 and 4 because they think it would restrain credit growth even more and yet we are in a credit crisis. They are wrong since the market is already on its way to reducing leverage and tightening credit standards.
5) Limit CDIC to chequing account and operating account balances. Charge punitively higher premiums for FI s that are deemed higher risk. Increase premiums and underwriting standards for all insured mortgages (CMHC, etc). Many people were put into the largest debt of their lives to buy an inflated asset thanks to government policy and invalid underwriting guidelines based on faulty assumptions.
6) Extend EI benefits for all unemployed workers and increase the re-training and education fund that these workers can tap into in order to re-train for new careers geared to higher demand industries.
7) Manage the CAD dollar in reference to a range (+/- 10 %) in the monthly average gold price of the last 10 years and remove management of the dollar from the BofC to a new, totally independant currency board that will focus on keeping the CAD in the above range using management of base money supply and not interest rates. Abandon interest rate targeting. Lobby for the same in US (abolish the Fed – this will take a revolution and possibly result in bloodshed for any policymaker who is in a position to do this).
This would involve running a large deficit for a couple of years and yes, some aspects to come from the Keynesian theory but we have no choice at this juncture. The system has grown too large and complex thanks in large part to the theories relied on since 1971. The goal has to be re-building a financial system that is more robust and that will never again result in the nonsense we are seeing now. This would prevent the need to spend money we don’t have on political wish lists. I cannot cover everything I think we should look at but here is a start.
JO
So we have people for years now that have been warning of the ominous clouds filling the sky and instead of being applauded for taking the chance to speak up or out against the beast, they get ridiculed or told they only trying to fill their own pockets, self interest. They get verbally abused and mocked because they can actually think outside the box, most importantly, for themselves.
@Garth, each of those tidbits of news that your bitching about are telling a story, its whats in between the lines that’s important. I appreciate every relevant article posted by not only Garth but others that use this forum to find the truth. Take the good with the bad.
For the past 5 years I’ve listened to that “other” voice in the USA and I will say that people like Robert Schiller, Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff, (and my Economics 101 text),although they’ve been attacked repeatedly, they haven’t let me (or my porfolio) down.
Finally in 2008 we had a canuck step up to the plate and start exposing the truth in a pure Canadian forum and I haven’t missed a beat sense.
So to have the head of the finance department lie through his teeth for the past year about where we are going, isn’t surprising to me, I pulled the blinders off a long time ago and suggest that some others do the same.
#6 POL-CAN
Do you really think that we can spend or way out of this, come on, this is how we got into this trouble in the first place and its the precursor to major inflation…
People need more incentive to save…
All the money that is being flung around not so unlike the dogs leftovers in the backyard, to promote spending, when people need to save to buy consumer goods. If we continue on this mad rush to spend our way out the economy it will implode and we will be facing hyper inflation.
Yeah we got in this mess because of ultra low rates and ultra low rates are going to pull the world out of it, aka printing money or pulling it from out of our asses…
Ridiculous. If we’re lucky we get Japan 1990 again and we move sideways for 15 years, looks like though we’re opting for an Obama/CFR induced depression.
A Politician in this country lying? Saying something to the opposite of what they know is true? Say it ain’t so!
@Garth2
While I agree sometimes its hard to take day after day the unrelenting bombardment of negative views and predictions. Where I disagree with you is that this should be a catalyst for thinking things are now going to get better simply because we’re tired of hearing it. The unfortunate truth is things aren’t likely to get better anytime soon, as a matter of fact, as Garth is saying, they’re likely to get much worse. You’re right that things go up just as they go down. But it would be foolish to think we’re out of the woods and things are ready to move up.
But human psychology is such that we can only take so much negative information. This my friends is what got us here in the first place. If we close our eyes and click our heals maybe it will go away. It doesn’t. And unfortunately we are going to hear a much more news regarding the pain and suffering the world is enduring. This is what the “direction and future” are likely to bring.
But for those of you that only want to hear warm fuzzies may I recommend some of the RE boards? Maybe Bob Rennie’s site?
Even worse, Flaherty will be denied a loan from the bank for a new million dollar hair piece!!!
He’s already pulled out all his hair on his reverse mohawk.
Maybe Harper can land his passenger jet on it in times of emergeny landing.
They should also go after coruption
hehe … so you think they should go after themselves and their best friends? bhwaaahaaaaaa ….
We went to get a mortgage on the family cottage six months ago. We bought four years ago for fifty thousand. A year later our neighbours bought their lot (it’s crummier than ours) for a hundred twenty thousand. Other neighbours have sold actual cottages for around two hundred thousand since we bought.
Our cottage is finished now except for the septic. Getting a mortgage on our cottage of 60 thousand–that’s ostensibly like 30 percent or so of it’s “value” at the time–was like pulling teeth.
They lie to us partly because they’ve bought the idea that economics is all psychology–but it’s not. It’s psychology and math. When push comes to shove, math wins.
Pol-can, you’re right about the GST. Japan raised its consumption tax back in the mid to late 90s and it’s looked upon now as one of many blunders they made that stalled the recovery of their economy.
850 jobs eliminated as Magna closes plants
http://www.wheels.ca/reviews/article/476577
Nov 26, 2008
Magna International is closing two auto parts plants north of Toronto that will eliminate about 850 jobs by next June.
The auto parts giant announced today it will shut down the Aurora and Newmarket plants of Exterion, a manufacturing division of Magna’s Decoma International operating division.
HARPER ON DEFICITS
“We are ahead of our budget projections, not a lot, but a bit. But there is no danger of deficits. We will keep a surplus in the current budget. We have made projections and we have made our platform to ensure that we will have surpluses in our budgets; it’s not the case for the other parties who make grand promises.”
OTTAWA, Sept. 15, 2008
“My resistance to running a deficit would be that history has shown there are no small deficits. Once governments lose fiscal discipline, they lose it entirely. I don’t think it’s necessary to run a deficit. I think what’s necessary is to make sure we undertake fiscal measures that are affordable.”
Oct. 6, OTTAWA
“Whatever short-term fiscal stimulus or deficit spending our government pursues, we will ensure that Canada does not return to long-term, structural budgetary deficits.”
Nov. 22, LIMA, PERU
#13 Jo
“They mirror the seriously flawed Keynesian economic theory which calls for massive “spending†(spending borrowed money from current and future taxpayers) during recessions to offset the lack of private spending. ”
Keynesian economic theory has barely even been tested, so it shouldn’t be labelled as flawed. You only identified half of it in the quote above. The other half is to run surplusses during boom periods to either eliminate debt from the bad times or better still, build a reserve for the next downturn.
I personally believe the Keynesian theory would work if politicians had the backbone to implement it properly. Unfortunately the temptation to buy votes during the good times seems to be too much.
Hi Garth,
When you say “You have no idea what’s coming.” Can you elaborate? I have followed your blog since May. You have been right on the mark so far. I sold my home last November and have nervously sitting on the cash since. I have thought about spreading it between banks to stay under the $100,000. guarantee by CDIC. My long term plan is to move from Saskatchewan to Alberta to be closer to my kids. I am watching the real estate market closely to try to buy in at the same time. My wife is retiring at the end of next year and one of plans we had was to go fulltime rving for about a year or so. Depending on how real estate goes maybe that isn’t such a bad plan. I would like your thoughts on where you believe all of this is headed and what is the WORST case senario. Thanks for all of your info.
Garth here is something you OR any of these readers have seen. That is the inside bank account of every COUNTRY in the world! A must see is the US account!
U N B E L I E V A B L E! Better buy GOLD and FAST.
#21 SmWhite,
Regarding the Econ 101 text, isn’t it amazing how well it actually works? I’ve put some thought into why these high priced “professionals” don’t seem to have a clue, and all I can figure is that they’ve drifted to far from the basics to whatever the new paradigm nonsense flavour of the week is. As donny mentionned, math wins, though I would add as long as you keep it simple enough.
PH & N’s senior economist said last night this whole thing caught her by surprise – like what was that remark all about?!?
And I say we’re heading for a depression and probably much worse than that of the dirty thirties.
#21 smwhite
I am the last one to advocate spending our way out of this. This is why I said that the gov must cut at all levels. If they can learn to live within their means they could further cut taxes (corp and personal) which is what is needed if the economy is to recover. If corps pay less they have more to expand with. The only way they can expand is if the consumer has more to spend. This is a self feeding loop and I am not talking debt here.
The gov, the business community, and Joe Taxpayer need to live within their means otherwise we will be doing 2008 over again in the not too distant future.
A healthy economy begins at home. We need to produce for us first. We need jobs in order to produce and consume what has been produced. What is left can be exported.
The services economy of the past 30 years is dead. I don’t know which moron thought it up but we can not all be people managers, project managers, lawyers, bankers, store clerks, or waiters. Too many of us do not have jobs that produce tangible things. This could not continue.
# 25 Calgary 2008
:)
Like I said…. Not holding my breath….
Garth, is there anything that you can recommend as a safe place to park money that will return more than the misserable 3% most GICs are offering nowadays?
The world’s going to hell and you want more than 3%? — Garth
Formerly Calgary rip off.
“You can give me a mortgage at 0% and I will still not buy an overpriced cardboard shit shack in suburbia at today’s prices, or even the prices 6 months to a year from now. Maybe at 50% off……..but not now.” Keith in Calgary
Hilarious. I almost spewed my whole lunch over the computer.
Watch for the foreclosures coming up in Calgary and sellers panicking when the Ontario folk dont come to Alberta(housing costs still too high).
Calgary’s bird has flown.
Garth, keep up the good work. I have read you book, in fact I got it early before it was even on the shelves! I have read all your entries and thankfully you saved me from buying a house. So far, I figure I saved at least $65,000.00 just by not buying at the peak. Still saving and waiting. Thanks Garth.
Garth, thats was Funny the worlds going to hell!! LOL!!
Check this link:
http://www.bankofinternet.com/cd-rates.aspx
Come on Garth (respectfully), I have a pretty good idea what is coming …
The notion of near-depression has been on the lips of many a economist, strategist, fund manager for some years now (You’re not and never have been the only game in town prostelytizing misery).
Now look people, I didn’t just stumble out of a Bay Street bar and into this blog. My own portfolio is hugely cash, I’m long-term bearish (for now), jeez I actually paid a quarter down when that was unfashionable! I’m not on the side of real estate in the least.
Besides, just who reads this blog for upside news?!
The near-unaminous backlash here shows one thing, disaster-consensus has more than kicked in. That doesn’t mean it’s ill advised, but when the noise gets loud, it can be disorienting and misleading (just how did we get in this mess, right?).
The point now is what to do. 2-3 years ago, when Garth (and others like Schiff, Phillips, ..more fancy names) provided sober, researched contrarian viewpoints, I was listening. Now that it’s in the open (remember misery has a market and its growing), I don’t have to tune in here to get the bad news.
I tune in for the honest realistic evaluative information, not reactionary hype (with all due respect, may it please the court).
I see what’s going on now. Only comments that fit the “Sky Is Falling” mentality will be posted. Tells me I made the right decision about your actual abilities.
Truly informed people, who actually know what they’re talking about, don’t hesitate to post dissenting opinions.
Dissenting opinion is always allowed. Ad hominem rants are not. When you can discuss ideas without trashing those who disagree with you, come back. — Garth
# 20 Jo…The last person who tried to take away the Federal Reserves power to issue fiat money, and subsequently charge the US government interest, was John F. Kennedy.
He was assasinated a few months later. They actually had started to issue his bank notes but after his death they quickly repealed the law and went back to Federal Reserve notes.
All the points you raised, especially about fractional reserve banking, are true. Keynesian economic theory is what caused the housing bubble.
If Obama had hired Ron Paul to run the Treasury I would have thought he was sincere in his attempt at “change”.
There is little Harper can really do as this is very much an international problem and with the US dollar being the worlds reserve currency the solution, or ultimate destruction, of the worlds economy rests in Washington.
What is so bad about the real estate market tanking anyway? It has happened before and people survived. I worry more about tax dollars being shoveled into the banks coffers.
Another great read via TAE…..
‘Encouraged by a wicked wizard, Greenspan, Bernanke toils at his printing press’
People blame this crisis on cheap money and greedy bankers. They certainly cannot be exempted. But I take a more fatalist point of view. There has to be a reason for humans to die off in their 70s and 80s. I believe it is so that the memory of a generation’s mistakes is erased, allowing future ages to repeat the folly of greed and fear. Because of this, I spend a lot of time reflecting on social mood and behaviour. Popular fiction is a particular fascination; I believe it provides a mind map of the social conscience.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/3525234/Encouraged-by-a-wicked-wizard-Greenspan-Bernanke-toils-at-his-printing-press.html
The GreatEST Depression is not just coming, it’s at the door, and it will represent the Weimarization of the entire planet, because governments will hyperinflate trying to spend their way out of it. Old Mother Hubbard went to the cupboard, and it wasn’t just bare, it wasn’t there.
Just a big empty barren field. Nuked to black glass, if Cheney has his finally say.
Lyrics from Billy Bragg circa 1990’s – situation is the same today, you cannot spend your way out of trouble, and with governments across the western world desperately trying to do that it will only lead to more trouble
“We’re living in a North Sea Bubble
We’re trying to spend our way out of trouble
You keep buying these things but you don’t need them
But as long as you’re comfortable it feels like freedom”
The line up for the bailout wicket in Ottawa looks like an ever lengthening queue. So far only $83 billion for the financial industry. The bailout for the auto industry is still in the formative stages, but the tab should be considerable.
The government might as well nationalise parts of the auto industry and financials rather than keep sending an endless stream of “cash for trash” cheques. The scoundrels who created this once in a lifetime crisis will continue to be rewarded for their irresponsible management otherwise.
Intervention in the markets is anathema until markets prove to be inadequate at self correction.
“I hope you kids out there like paying income taxes. — Garth”,
No kidding. Economist are pushing between $8 – 24 billion be spent over the next 2 years. It will have to be closer to the $24B. Wow.
Looks like the Fed is going to increase the GST soon.
can someone help a person who has limited investment experience. I am considering to buy gold. How can I do that?
thanks in advance
I hope that’s not your first investment. — Garth
We’d be better off if we didn’t look to politicians to solve our problems.
Usually, they make problems worse. That’ll be true of the Harper government, just as it would have been true of a Dion or Layton government.
The solution lies in strong ties to family, friends and community. To a commitment to personal and professional integrity.
# 49 dd
Let them increase the GST to 10 pc if they want….
The higher it goes the less people will buy because the name of the game from now on is frugality.
Buy what you need ONLY as the optional stuff will be cheaper in a few months anyway.
The more the gov raises, the less we buy, the worse things get, the more they have to spend, and on and on….
Insanity
@Garth 2 on 11.26.08 at 3:07 pm Come on Garth (respectfully), I have a pretty good idea what is coming …
LMAO–your a world of wisdom for sure! Since you already know it all perhaps you should start your own blog? There is no one stupider than someone who thinks they have nothing to learn– you certainly have captured that category :-)
#34 Anonymous,
Depression greater than the 30’s. Not.
Dust bowl, War storm gathering in Japan and Europe, Germany made to pay million in WWI payments.
Ha we have it easy.
Today the Fed, Government, IMF … all is throwing the kitchen sink at the problem. Will we get out of this untouched. NO.
But the 30’s. Our generation couldn’t live through it.
stocks are climbing fast. This scare to steal the stocks is all over everything will be back to normal.
ouch….
From Mish:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/case-shiller-and-car-analysis-november.html
Median nominal prices in CA are now down 47% according to CAR and 42% according to DQNews – and those declines are in less than 18 months!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SS2hw8Rk2WI/AAAAAAAAD2k/4t6v-DUmaeo/s1600-h/CAR-%25decline-2008-10.png
John and Wondering in Winnipeg,
Totally agree with you giving it to Garth 2.
Pretty silly trying to insult Garth that he is
using headlines and news for our education.
What, he should just BS and make crap up
the whole time?
I too appreciate all the links and like his
write ups as they are easy to read and
have evidence backing up opinion.
Garth2, yes please do make your own website,
we are dying to read it….
The Vancouver Island Perspective:
1)Nice climate(when it isnt raining)
2)Limited traffic(expect to be harassed on the highway going to Victoria for radar traps)
3)Lake Cowichan fairly reasonable, Nanaimo fairly reasonable real estate. Port Alberni very affordable.
4)Ease at finding work: Expect to have 4 interviews, even for a fast food job, which you probably wont get. Expect to live off EI for a while.
5)Expect that your contacts, social networks, friends, family are all important in helping you to survive. If you dont have that there, you are toast.
6)Expect to have a hell of a time getting a job. Once you get one, it will be probably unionized, and expect to do a half ass job and call in sick when you are well.
7)Expect to experience the island mentality: Everyone seems laid back because a)they have no money and nothing to loose, b)they are stoned, c)if they attached to their real feeling of anxiety they would explode due to the ominousness of the lack of any way out, or d)all of the above.
Take your pick: Either live in a place like Calgary where the shacks are close and your neighbors who you dont know closer, or choose the island and all its benefits.
Either way, you lose.
Cara,
This is obviously not the blog for you.
Your post must have been pretty offensive
for Garth not to post it.
I have certainly read posts that disagreed
with Garth and not just mildly.
Maybe go elsewhere,
why are you coming on this blog, if just
to disagree with us?
Go do something more useful…
Oh you … with that Armageddon stuff again … who will be the Antichrist Garth? I absolutely MUST know.
The more things change …
“Those Canadians who thought we could end up with a five-month adjustment, after the Americans have been through a three-year Armageddon, had better think again. This is just the beginning, pushed along by big events like those unfolding on Wall Street and in Washington this week.”
Cara,
Additionally,
So now YOUR informed,
and Garth and the rest of us are not?
Time will tell…
Soon you will see we were right.
I don’t know how many experts have
to tell you that for you to believe it.
I hope you made bad financial decisions
because of your stubborness and arrogance,
You would deserve the life lesson.
“#46 Future Expatriate
The GreatEST Depression is not just coming, it’s at the door, and it will represent the Weimarization of the entire planet, because governments will hyperinflate trying to spend their way out of it. Old Mother Hubbard went to the cupboard, and it wasn’t just bare, it wasn’t there.
Just a big empty barren field. Nuked to black glass, if Cheney has his finally say.”
Sounds like a great little ditty – I’d tried dancing to it … but you forgot about locusts and hellfire.
Who knew the future would be revealed in a rant?
I was a naysayer in 1980 (never make that mistake again) I was in Windsor Ontario and in the real estate business life was good–then! interest rates went thru the roof,the auto plants became idle,every day there was a house anyone could have just to take over the mortgage,39 lawyers in the city were on UI,if you made a sale most times you didn’t get paid,i pumped every nickel i had into staying afloat (thinking all this will pass)–it didn’t before my cash ran out–i sold everything i had–i had a leased car and went to see the dealer and told him i was going out west-i said i don’t know what the future holds out there but i hear there are jobs (there were none in the windsor paper).I asked him if i could return the vehicle-he said yes,and tore up the lease agreement and said best of luck to you in edmonton and went on to say he was chasing after people on a daily basis. I was in Edmonton for 3 1/2 years made good money and paid off all my debts–then the crash hit there–i moved to BC and the economy went into the toilet there,i weathered it out and ended up back on my feet i lived in BC for 20 odd years and have been back in Ontario for a few years. Those were bad times and i remember them well BUT they don’t hold a candle to what we are facing now! My home is paid for i live modestly and thanks to Garth am preparing for what Harper and Flaherty denied!
#51 islander on 11.26.08 at 4:18 pm We’d be better off if we didn’t look to politicians to solve our problems.
Usually, they make problems worse. That’ll be true of the Harper government, just as it would have been true of a Dion or Layton government.
The solution lies in strong ties to family, friends and community. To a commitment to personal and professional integrity.
==========
Islander, sounds like a career change is in the works?
Garth,
We know you’re calling for deflation followed by hyper-inflation… But how to guard against it, aside from dumping our real estate? Buy GICs? That doesn’t seem to be wise in the long term if hyper-inflation is going to make our dollars worth 50 cents…
You say that we don’t know what we’re in for, but some of us don’t really understand the implications of what you’re calling for.
Will you be answering in this blog? In the book? And if in the book, will it be out in time for us to take your advice?
Thank you for all of your hard work, the books, and the blog. And look forward to reading more, and hopefully some answers to these very questions.
PS, are there any other books your can recommend?
dd #54,
You might want to rethink your NOT. I’d also suggest you read up what they’re saying at TAE as well as this site. Also check out what Peter Schiff has to say.
You say our generation couldn’t live through what happened in the 1930s? I say you may be in for a rude
awakening – and you’re quite right, you may not make it. It will not be easy giving up those lattes, exotic holidays, working as little as possible and playing as much as you can, no more designer clothes, struggling to pay off that high interest mortgage for the stainless steel, granite countertop McMansion that houses the Land Rover in its’ garage. You’re absolutely right, there are some individuals in our generation who won’t cope. Unfortunately, we can’t control the paradigm shift that’s already starting to unravel!
RE: #4 @Garth 2 on 11.26.08 at 12:04 pm
———————————————–
I guess the following prediction on Sept 19th was useless eh?:
“Oil might actually go right back to $50”
Keep it coming Garth, and bring on Keynesian theory!
Cara and the Hezbollah have spoken – does it all get it easier to understand when you keep repeating the litany over and over again and stoking it with the same media who ‘didn’t get it’ before? who says they do now, they’re just selling news and fear sells.
I’m not saying Garth isn’t right or wrong but why don’t you ask yourself who the arrogant one is?
#34 Anonymous,
Seriously, the shit that comes out of your mouth… people are going to start thinking it’s me. I’m the guy with the robot brain with the million IQ and a time machine.
I was born John P. Anonymous. I was born in 1901, and I look like I’m 32. That’s why I still get laid. There is only one anonymous on this board. It’s me. Get another damn alias.
dd,
How about that action in energy, huh? Russia has something brewing. We bottomed out in oil at $50.
I’ve been buying as much DIG as I can get my hands on. Hustling old ladies, grifting, begging… I need more cash!
Anyway, happy thanksgiving.
What’s coming? I hear the hoof beats loud and clear of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
1. Economic Ruin (already progressing at lightning speed)
2. Warfare (that will make WWII look like a Sunday picnic)
3. Famine (on a global scale – invest in food not GIC’s)
4. Disease (as in pandemic or one worldwide pandemic that will make the Spanish flu look like a common cold)
Life as we have always known it is over and will never be the same at least in the lifetimes of anyone over 40. The dark ages after the fall of Rome lasted a 1000 years, how long the coming dark age will last only God knows. For those of us who have never known life without electricity the words DARK AGES may acquire a whole new meaning.
Save this post and look at it a year from now and then tell me, it can never happen!!! Sad to say there is no way that it won’t happen.
Cara, the government tells you what to know. It’s up to you to be able to recognise what is fact and what is Bull $hit!
Flaherty paid out 25 Billion to start because he wanted to add to it a bit at a time… Same with 40 year mortgages. What them go back to 30…
For goodness sake, open you eyes!
There’s this trader adage – “don’t tell me what to buy tell me when” Timing is everything. I think most people can sense its coming. Obama appointed Volcker today after his third press conference and announced an economic advisory board team. Volcker is big news. He took interest rates into high double digits and gold from 850 to 200 and change. Why didn’t Obama announce this appointment during the first press conference? He’s a sharp dude and he gets to have notes and why is he acting like the president when he’s still Mr. Elect. I think that the Boyz in the know are panicking and they needed something big to avoid a panic stampede that is happening right now. I think we are going to see the dollar take a big drop before Obama is coronated. He’s distancing himself from the Republicorps and playing blame game. So enjoy temporary hedge fund deleveraging giving the dollar some shorlived strngth but I think once he’s in we’re going to see spending like we’ve never seen before and where are they going to get these bucks? There’s no industrial base in the states just adult toys of all assortments. He’s going to take it out of what’s left of the dollar. I’m not sure where the going honesty offering indicator for politicians is pointing right now but using history as a guide ever met one without a few lies in his bag of tricks. 56 days to Zimbabwe.
Anonymous #70
I won’t be bullied by you. Too bad if you don’t like me using Anonymous, and too bad if people think I’m you.
Just too bad isn’t it!
Midas
Holy Sh**
Let’s talk real estate, that’s what I thought this blog and at least the book was about. I for one am looking forward to buying/owing in the next year. However the tone of this blog and sorry to say Mr. Turner has been don’t ever buy (except my new book). Hoard seeds and ammo and maybe rent out a cave. Why not educate the masses with usable knowledge. Yes, I know the global economy has taken a dump. We all get it, over and over again. I think a lot of people come here for insight, same reason for buying the book. Most will be getting their skin in the game. So how about, what will the interest rate be 5 years from now? Or what to watch for when purchasing? How much in fees should I pay?
Remind me to take Midas of my Christmas card list. What a party pooper! :)
#70 anonymous,
Have we hit bottom at $50 oil? Really tough to read short term. Numbers are flying around from $30 to 120 bucks next year. I didn’t think I would see the day of $50 oil again.
I hear that this might be a techncial rally. Once the Obama and world annoucement are all out it there might be a run up of the TSX to 12,000. However, how long is all this stimulas going to take. I bet it will be half way through 2009 until really money is spent on construction or infra jobs.
Demand might back off a full 10% when this recession really gets underway. That means an extra 8.5 million barrels a day out on the market (before production cuts).
Remember the world is just starting to be pulled into a recession. I think that oil is going to be pulled down more in the short term.
#71 midas
“3. Famine (on a global scale – invest in food not GIC’s)”
Short term you would have been killed in ag stocks.
Oh think long term ….. well … I will buy low and sell high.
#67 Anonymous,
We are not facing a war. We are not facing a dust bowl.
The Fed increase interest rates going into the depression. They waited for years to implement spending plans. There was little EI or Welfare.
We will have to belt tighten and might have to grow our own food and coffee might be a luxury item.
But 1930’s it is not. Talk to the old timers … they had it rough.
#67 Anonymous,
PS thanks for the comment.
It is going to be tough. I have been through a couple of recessions and I know that this will be the worst.
Governments are acting, however, nothing beats a healthy economy like a healthy economy.
Government spending can never take the place of people and company spending.
I am really starting to enjoy this web site! We have the doom and gloomers, and admittedly, I probably fall toward that catagory. And of course we have the “Nothing to see here folks, move along now everything is under control” crowd.
If you think government intervention at this time will correct anything think about the past programs we, North Americans, have spent billions on…..
1. The war on drugs… check out Vancouver’s DTES or any major city in Canada.
2. Alternate energy….still waiting.
3. The war on poverty….???
4. The war on Terror….check out what happened in India today.
Cheap easy credit got us into this mess along with total lack of market oversite and an expectation of entitlement for consumers.
Is a 40 year mortgage in a country that has the lowest population density in the world logical?
Does underwriting a mortgage for 40 years make sense when CMHC only requires a building code that give a house a 25 year lifespan?
Those who don’t know their history are doomed to repeat it.
What we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.
Those of us who have spent time studying history can testify that man never constructs anything that he does not later destroy with a vengeance. Man takes one step forward and three backwards and sometimes he takes a whole lot more steps backwards. We are at a pivotal time in history and those who see our current problems as purely economical are living on fantasy island. The possibility of a backward regression for mankind is at an all time high and judging by history man will not be able to stop himself from hastening his own destruction. I apologize if reality is too bitter a pill for you to swallow.
However if all you’re concerned with is the price of real estate then I’d venture to say that it will not hit bottom till 2012 at the earliest and in major urban centres like Vancouver and the GTA prices will drop at least 50% from the 2007 levels. You may argue otherwise but we’ll just have to wait and see how this game plays out.
LMAO: Midas you’re on the right track. Canadians are still worried about housing prices, but there is a lot more going on than that.
Obama is not going to be able to save the broken US economy or save the US $. He will however do his part in bringing about the New World Order.
Good thing Canadians are fat because we’re going to need it to sustain us when food riots break out!!
#54 dd and #62 Rob5… tell us, what part of 10+ trillion in paper “wealth” that NEVER EVER existed going “poof” are you not understanding?
And #62 Rob5… I beg to differ, you mistook my post for a rant when it was a rave.
Bombs away…
Here a trllion, there a trillion,
-U.S. is printing/borrowing/spending money at ridiculessly insane rate.
-US T-bills are being shorted to the tune of 2.3 trillion, someone with alot of money, knows something we do not.
-Bloomberg stated, dollars commited to date @ 7.6 trillion, and rising daily.
-Intereset rates are already, at a rock bottom 1%.
-The US dollar index is about to drop like a rock.
-Do the math, the states is setting itself up for a currency collapse.
-The consumer is spent, scared and in no mood to borrow [including myself]
-Unemployment is rising fast, and will spike dramaticly.
-Housing has yet to find a bottom and won’t for 12-18 months.
-Giant US banks are still on the verge, ex: Citi, BOA next?
-The biggest risk of all this is social unrest.
-The US goverment is quietly preparing a plan ‘B’ for just such an event.
-Canada is the little tugboat thats economicly/socially tied to the U.S Titanic, like it or not, where they go,we surely follow.
[dont worry, Canadians are sheep, we will go quietly]
Take care,
BS
dd/akaAnonymous – give it up, you’re in too deep. And as far as talking to the old timers, I’ve never had to go far for that – my parents, no not my grandparents, my parents lived through those dirty thirties. Then my Dad went off to Europe during WW11 as did my uncles. They all came back, though had to have some schrapnel removed along the way and see horrors we could not imagine. Not to imagine their existence growing up during the 30s! And read up on the history of what happened in 1929 – people lost everything – I think at the end were left with 29% of their investments and the markets didn’t recover until 1954.
War is ugly too – particularly when you lose someone close to you like I did – my aunt in California lost her son in Viet Nam – I lost a cousin who I thought the world of.
And this past year, a colleague who had gone to Afghanistan for a bit, lost his life.
So, I know a thing or two about recessions, depresssions, and the ugly wars that our world has seen. And I know this from people who have been extremely close to me.
You’ve only live through a couple of recessions, I’ve lived through a few more than that.
Why not go after the taxes being lost when people buy their cigarettes illegally? Everywhere I look I see smokers pulling cigarettes out of fancy cases, which tells me they have a big stack in their fridge courtesy of illegal cigarette trade. And these are the people that are going to cost us an arm and a leg in health care costs.
Dear prime minister
What on earth is your little toady Flaherty croaking about with the term ‘technical recession?”
I assume its ‘technical’ because he’s finance minister and along has cometh this annoying little problem to crowd the watch. Pray sir, if somebody were bold enough to give your little toady a kiss what do you think he’d turn into?
Jalmar Schact?
hehehe, one tic happened like i tougth on the other side of the pacific, wonder when the next tic will be in the hood…
and i feel fine…..
lol, i ve got copyrigths on the greatest D term…you guys are more than welcome to use it as long as you share the grub when you catch those squirrels,lol
@The First Prick:
I won’t comment on your professional integrity and you’ll take care to withhold your opinion on mine, of which you know nothing.