Squirrel alert


Homeowners’ new reality: You’re suddenly poorer

Town drowns in debt as home values plunge

Where home values are less than the mortgage

Most mainstream economists seem to agree this recession will be brutish and deep, and may last two to three years. But it will not evolve into a deflationary spiral leading to a depression. Let’s hope they’re right, although China’s move this week to bring in a $586 billion stimulus plan did not fill me with hope. I mean, this is China – 1.3 billion people, with a growth rate of 11% last year and a 20% increase in exports, with 15 million people a year being added to the workforce. If Beijing is worried about economic slowdown, is there any hope for us?

And Spain. Sheesh. With forty million people, about the same size as Canada, and yet with almost 3 million unemployed, it’s steaming towards Depression-style unemployment of 20%. And Iceland? Wow, No. 1 on the UN best-places list in 2007 and a basket case now, where 30% of the population wants to leave. All this, of course, in mere weeks.

Meanwhile jobless numbers in the US last month were staggering. The real estate market there has yet to feel bottom. And some smart people are saying the Dow at just under 9,000 will be heading to 400. And I haven’t even touched yet on the sucker’s rally of 1930…
As I write my new book I have been asked for some pointers on surviving a depression. Here are a few:

1. Get out of your mortgage. A true depression will sink residential real estate values by at least half and possible by three-quarters. If you bought a home in the last five years with financing on it, the chances of it falling below not only your purchase price but your mortgage amount are excellent. If that happens, you have no options. Walk away, and you’ll get sued for the difference between the amount you owe and what the bank dumps your house for – and their lawyers never give up. If there’s any chance you might lose your job in a depression and you don’t own your home mortgage-free, you’re rolling the dice by not selling now and getting out of this soon-to-be-crushing obligation.

2. Get out of town, or at least the big city. Take some of the real estate proceeds and buy a piece of land and maybe a used RV (lots of those for sale these days), and park it. Or move to a smaller, more remote community, where housing costs are far less and community support is far greater. If so…

3. Get a home with its own services, namely a well and a septic bed. If there is an economic collapse, don’t count on governments to be there providing you with endless free, clean water, and the capacity to treat your sewage. All it will take is a sustained power disruption to end those niceties. Then what would you do? What will the millions who live in Toronto do?

4. Buy a generator. You can almost count on the grid going down as utilities struggle with a declining revenue base and the cost of fuel to create electricity. If there’s an ice or wind storm, it could be months, not hours or days, before service is restored as power companies struggle with their own financial problems and try to operate with reduced staffs.

5. Of course, for a generator, you will need fuel. A natural gas-powered residential unit will operate so long as the gas company keeps the pipes full (definitely longer than the wires overhead will stay up), and a propane generator can run for as long as your storage tank allows (the company supplying you with gas will not be able to pump any into their vehicles without electricity). So a good bet is a large, well-installed gas generator and a few hundred litres of gasoline. Store it in 50-litre cans so it can be moved quickly if necessary and don’t forget to keep a pump close by. You will not want to spill a drop.

6. Live somewhere you can plant a garden. Growing food in a depression is a no-brainer, giving you excellent nutrition at the right price. Get seeds now. Horde them.

7. Get cash and store it safely in a safe.

8. Get a weapon and learn to hunt. In the last Depression, deer and squirrels almost became extinct. Think about it.

9. If dining on rodents is not appealing, then this is another reason to move into a rural area. Chickens are easy to raise, and are one of the most efficient machines on earth for converting feed into protein.
10. Change at least a portion of your savings into gold or silver, since these commodities are historic guardians of wealth. If things get really bad, Canadian dollars could become seriously devalued – a nasty lesson Icelanders learned in their recent brush with disaster. Precious metals are portable and universal, which is another reason you need that safe. Obviously, don’t buy bars of the stuff, but rather gold coins and single wafers of one ounce to five ounces. Easier to pay for gasoline and squirrel meat that way.

11. Make sure you have meds and first aid handy. If you or someone else in your home requires prescription medication, see your doctor and get what you need to fulfill a year’s worth of it.

12. Buy and store food and water. Collect plastic bottles. Have a bad day box full of supplies – matches, wind-up or solar radio, lanterns and kerosene, camp stove and fuel, thermal blankets, tools including axe and hatchet, tape, pliers, the usual.

13. Get bicycles for your family. Sturdy ones with large tires. No need to pay more than a couple of hundred bucks a piece at Canadian Tire or, better still, Wal-Mart.

14. Get a dog. A real dog, like a German Shepherd or a Rottie. Although you now have to worry about dog food and caring for your pet’s health, you have just secured the single best security device possible in a world which, I guarantee you, will be far less secure than this one. Besides, you get an extra friend.

15. Build community support. A protracted depression will tax everyone’s ability to cope and there’s no doubt you and everyone around you will need help. So find ways of helping each other. A communal garden could be far more productive than several individual ones, for example, with the constant care and security which will be required. Time can be spent in the evenings rotating between various homes, so precious generator fuel is not wasted lighting many houses separately. Find those on your street or in your building who have time on their hands, and can do the necessary maintenance and repair work that a condominium corporation or the city will surely abandon. Most importantly, find others to share your burdens with and to talk about sweeter times to come.

But of course, we’ll all be okay.

Note: Early reaction of some readers indicates a belief I am predicting a depression. Not so fast. What I am doing above is giving some guidance in case a deflationary cycle occurs. In my coming book, ‘After the Crash’, I also offer extensive additional advice on how to prepare for the possibility of such an event, and the odds of it happening. — Garth


#1 Dawn in Calgary on 11.09.08 at 10:42 pm

Oh my lord. I’ll never sleep tonight now.

#2 Kevin in Winnipeg on 11.09.08 at 11:10 pm

That THUD was the sound of Garth falling off his rocker. Someone want to help him up?

Thanks for the tips Nostradamus.

#3 Brian on 11.09.08 at 11:20 pm


I really have to wonder if you are a prophet or just another Doom’n’Gloomer. I certainly want to believe the latter but have enough fear to think the former could be possible.

The gamble of the investments (i.e. the generator and storing fuel, etc.) you recommend are hard to swallow.

Sure am glad I own this house outright though and abandoned my search for a new one 6 months ago thanx to your advise.

Glad to see you see more value in Gold now that you did a month and a half ago when it was “just shiny stuff”(http://www.greaterfool.ca/2008/09/21/how-close/#comment-5879).

#4 Mini-Garth on 11.09.08 at 11:31 pm

Here’s a preview of what Halton will look like in 2009 – 2010.

That’s Garth ringing the bell…. a few pounds lighter by the way since he has to survive on chickens and squirrel…


#5 CalgaryRocks on 11.09.08 at 11:49 pm

6. Live somewhere you can plant a garden. Growing food in a depression is a no-brainer, giving you excellent nutrition at the right price. Get seeds now. Horde them.

Oh great, we have plenty of room to plant veggies in my backyard and also enough room to raise a few chickens. Boy this will be just like being on my grand mother’s farm.

Also, I am not sure about squirrels but I know a couple of places where I can hunt me some gophers.

#6 supersocco on 11.09.08 at 11:56 pm

Maybe the same people that feared Y2K can dust off their Generators and add a new coat of paint to their bomb shelter.

#7 dotava on 11.10.08 at 1:22 am

#2 Kevin in Winnipeg on 11.09.08 at 11:10 pm
#3 Brian on 11.09.08 at 11:20 pm

Unfortunately soon you/we will find out – and don’t shoot the messenger.

#8 Jon B on 11.10.08 at 2:00 am

Isn’t this the post-nuclear war survival check list? Garth, please revise to the “survival in difficult economic times” check list. Thanks.

#9 Plates of Metal on 11.10.08 at 2:24 am

Do I get to keep 3 wives too?

#10 CZ on 11.10.08 at 2:29 am

Although it seems tough to believe, there is no harm to prepare for it. The doom day may be hiding somewhere in front of us that nobody can see it.

A good tutorial will shed us more lights on the view:

If you spend some time on this crash course, you may find what Garth has described may not be a joke as you thought.

I don’t think Garth has a crystal ball – a lot smart people, including Garth, have spend their time to investigate the possible outcomes in the coming years.

Here is another source that provide you more on the list:

#11 VHB on 11.10.08 at 3:19 am

“11. Make sure you have meds ”

Looks like Garth didn’t obey Commandment number 11.

#12 No Fool.... on 11.10.08 at 3:33 am

Wow, someone had a really really bad weekend!

Garth, I’m a fan, but that was…..that was…..a bit too gloomy, even for you.


P.S. You didn’t mention get rid of your pets.
Maybe that was the eat rodents part though.

#13 eddy on 11.10.08 at 4:44 am

Garth, maybe your next book should be a novel, you got me hooked on page one and I’m ready to buy it.

#14 islander on 11.10.08 at 5:17 am

You Pollyannas need to sit down and have a chat with your grandparents. Or some really old Germans.

Any rural property owner worth his salt is half or all the way through this list, so there’s nothing crazy or excessive about this list.

In rural areas, electricity is relatively recent so generators and fireplaces are part of the furniture. Wells & septics are just the way it is. And you could practically live on chicken eggs.

I’d add to the list: Make amends with your family. You might be moving in with them soon.


#15 Stephen from Toronto on 11.10.08 at 6:57 am


Some people will tell you on this blog that you are crazy and have lost your mind for warning them of an economic depression of historical proportions

They will say that you are a doom and gloomsayer.

They will say that you are too pessimistic about the ability of the current global leadership to stop an economic meltdown.

They will say that Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Finance Minister Jim Flarity and the Conservative Government in Ottawa and the Bank of Canada have the economic and financial situation in the country under control and we need not to worry.

In this country anyone with an RRSP has lost a minimum of 20% of the total value of their investments. Pensioners over the age of 71 who have RRIF’s must withdraw (by law) funds from investments that are losing money. Ottawa has not decided what to do about the situation. Companies are asking the Minister of Finance for a longer time period to shore up pensions that have lost a considerable amount of money. Canadians can sure count on the federal government for help in these troubled economic times.

Many Canadian feel that they will not experience the severe economic troubles that their neighbors to the south are facing right now? They feel that the downturn and potential real estate crisis will not be as bad is the US.

However, has anyone ever stop to think that financial experts and journalist offered the same advice in your article today in 1993 and NO ONE, ABSOLUTELY NO ONE believed them!!!

James Dale Davidson and Lord William Rees-Mogg wrote a book called the Great Rekoning which was published by Simon and Schuster in New York. The ISBN number is 0-671-86994-9 and copies are currently avalible from Amazon.com for under $30.

In Chapter 14 of the book(pp438-485), the authors present a chilling even frightening analysis of how the private and public economy could decline in a deflationary depression. Here is a brief synopsis of what could happen between 2009-2012:

1) The declining real estate market will lead to the withdrawl of credit lines to individuals and business (p449).

2) Consumer spending which is 2/3 of the economy will start to drop as people defer purchases of durable goods . In the Great Depression of the 1930’s spending on furniture dropped 50%, auto sales plunged 70% and sales of consumer electronics declined 80% (p449)

3) Tarrif barriers could go up causing importers and exporters to lose money. Spending on capital goods for manufacturing firms will decline dramatically. Information based companies may escape this situation because capital will be spent on basic research as in the biotechnology sector (p451)

4) Spending in the defense and construction industry will decline as US forces with be withdrawn from areas of little or no strategic importance and directed towards the war on terror, russia or securing oil supplies etc. Private construction will decline as spending on public infrastructure projects will increase(p452-3)

5) People will spend money on basic necessities such as food during a depression. If their incomes are under strain they will buy cheaper or lower quality items. In the Great Depression of the 1930’s , prices for agricultural products declined 60%. However, i believe that agricultural prices may rise due to shortages in production and increasing global demand during this time period(p453)

6) There will be less spending on personal fashion and personal care items. Pawn shops will grow in popularity. Repair trades generally do well in economic slumps as people will be unable to replace their older vehicles and will try to keep them on the road as long as possible. Lastly multi level marketing, home entrepreneurs and personal care services will survive during these hard times. Companies such as Tupperware, Avon and Rubbermaid are reporting record profits due to non US sales in Asia, Europe and India p454)

7) Service industries could be hard hit during a depression. Restaurants, medical and legal services (other than bankruptcy) may face low demand as people cut back spending in these areas (p.456)

8) Commercial real estate will be in a slump as retail and other service business close their doors due to declining sales and inability to pay landlords rent and utilities. Some business such as law and business admin services will be run from home to save money in renting expensive office space(p.458)

9) Oil is not depression proof because demand from car owners, trucking firms, railways and airline companies will drop. Even if the US dollars is devalued or is replaced, demand will drop because Americans will not be able to pay for foreign oil imports and will do with less. Road infrastructure could deteriorate due to less spending by government(p459-60)

10) The cost of insurance will go up despite the possible decline in auto use, the increase in uninsured drivers continuing to drive and risk to business in areas of the city which is highly dependent on automobile activity(p461)

11) There will be a drop in profits for media firms especially in publishing and newspaper industries. Advertizing revenue from furniture stores, auto dealers and grocery chains could drop significantly during an economic downturn. New startup companies will have trouble surviving because it will have a difficult time raising cash to move to a larger facility or hire staff to meet business demands(p.466)

12) Household could be under strain if more than one member has lost a job. This may result in the reduction of spending to buy the bare necessities. Governments may be forced to chose to bailout some industries and let the weaker ones die. At present GM is asking an estimated $100 billion from western government to restructure the company to prevent its bankruptcy. Other industries such as airlines and manufacturers are asking for a bailout package.

13) Stimulation packages to stabilize the economy may not work. Governments will embark on infrastructure spending on roads as opposed to potable water and sewage disposal in cities. They may chose to invest in “industrial base” jobs for low skill workers that may show small returns. Income redistribution programs such as high taxes on the rich, moves money to poorly educated parts of the city. It may diminish incentives to save and forces people to be more dependent on government services.

There could be a situation in which higher regulatory measures could be imposed on businesses resulting in a local economy less competitive and slowing the recovery. Lastly these stimulation initiatives could result in adding to the size of the national debt (now $10.2 trillion)and increase the debt service cost not to mention the pressure on the value of the dollar(p.471)

14) Government services could be privatized during the depression. The breakdown of law and order will lead to an increase in private security firms to augment police departments to protect people and property. Public infrastructure services would collapse due to the loss of revenue to maintain and upgrade the system. Water and wastewater services could be privatized to save money. There could be a dramatic growth in privatized educational services as governments layoff teachers and support staffs to balance the books. This enables these firms to establish collages that charge high fees to train students for the new economy. Universities like MIT have already put their entire undergraduate&graduate courses on line for no charge for anyone to use to solve problems. The University of Phoenix is one of the largest tele-universities in North America and have graduated tens of thousands of people ready to go to work in the new economy. Universities in Canada better adapt to the new realities or get sweped away by other institutions(p.472-3)

More to come tomorrow

#16 Sean McAllister on 11.10.08 at 7:31 am

Well, that was very good advice and sound planning for serious trouble in the future. But for someone like me most of what is on that list is out of my price range. I guess we’re screwed!

#17 jake on 11.10.08 at 7:52 am

Let’s all move into the woods and become hunters… great. Get a gas mask while you’re at it, and don’t forget to finally build that bomb shelter.

If there was one piece of good advice, it would be to build community support. It’s time to come together, not to buy guns and move into the wild.

#18 brazer on 11.10.08 at 9:14 am

Nortel suffers Q3 loss of US$3.41B; sales down 14 per cent; 1,300 jobs to be cut

The 1,300 job cuts are to be made “incrementally” – 25 per cent by the end of this year and the rest through 2009 – and an existing hiring freeze will be extended.


not good.

#19 brazer on 11.10.08 at 9:22 am

Circuit City files for bankruptcy protection

NEW YORK — Circuit City Stores Inc, the No. 2 U.S. consumer electronics retailer, filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday, falling victim to tighter credit terms from vendors and a loss of market share to Best Buy Co, Wal-Mart Stores Inc and other rivals.

Circuit City filed a week after saying it would close 155 stores, or more than one-fifth of its retail base, and eliminate 17% of its U.S. workforce.

#20 brazer on 11.10.08 at 9:28 am

Real estate broker slain in her home

Susan Ryan, a prominent real estate broker, became Peel Region’s 25th homicide victim yesterday after she was found dead in her upscale Mississauga home.

Ms. Ryan was president of the Mississauga Real Estate Board, the ninth-largest in the country, in 2006.

tragic. condolences to the family.

#21 Mini-Garth on 11.10.08 at 9:49 am


“I’d add to the list: Make amends with your family. You might be moving in with them soon. ”

I’d sooner resort to eating rodents…

#22 Lori on 11.10.08 at 10:01 am

Garth Turner was an MP? Yikes! I hope he is not representative of the typical MPs sanity.

#23 midas on 11.10.08 at 10:35 am

2009 will prove Mr. Turner to be a prophet or a doomsayer. People in North America never having suffered any real privations do not understand that we are only 3 days away from rioting in the streets because of food shortages; all thanks to just in time delivery of almost all goods but specially food. Even a minor breakdown in our transportation system, especially trucking will wreak havoc in the cities. Then all of you who wrote this particular blog off as ‘doom and gloom’ Hollywood fear mongering will wish that you had paid more attention and done some of the things that Mr. Turner suggests. Bravo Garth! Kudos to you for having the bollocks to tell your audience the way it is or rather the way it will be! Goes without saying that you will lose some of your fans along the way but the reality is that when the going gets tough most people shove their head in the sand and pretend everything is still the way it has always been. I would add one more thing to the list and that would be a good old King James Bible! Watch and Pray!

#24 Chris L on 11.10.08 at 10:41 am

How long will the depression last? I already hunt so I’m good. I can even store up enough food for 3 years, but how much do I need? I want to be certain. This is a serious question, even though I’m optimistic.

#25 midas on 11.10.08 at 11:40 am

You might want to add fishing lines to your list. Fish are abundant in most of Canada and relatively easier to get than game since most of us are not hunters.

#26 smwhite on 11.10.08 at 12:02 pm

Good grief Charlie Brown!

Prophet or doomsayer? Neither. A few common sense survival bits.

Good luck getting gold and silver coins, unavailable as we speak at Kitco, unless you want a $10K silver bar or a $100K gold bar…

I recall the term Garth using the term “bullion bunnys”, you’ve changed your tune on the sparkly metals Mr. Turner?

If anything buy cigarettes and whiskey, that stuff is always “golden”!

More happy news, no need for couriers if there is nothing to courier. 10K jobs!


#27 van-zee on 11.10.08 at 12:28 pm

A Squirrel works hard in good times and saves to survive a difficult winter. Seems to me we should be worshiping them and not seeing them as cheap protean.

#28 Ruhh on 11.10.08 at 12:32 pm

I’m still not totally convinced yet but leaning on the cautious side. I’m glad I have a fairly isolated family camp on the river with plenty of local food and heat resources.
Part of me pines for such a meltdown. This could help industries shift into green and renewable energy technologies. I see a demand on solar panels, wind turbines, and geothermal technology. Getting off the grid has never sounded so good.

#29 Gary T on 11.10.08 at 1:03 pm

I have been a follower and fan or yours for years but man you are losing it. This is hysteria and can only promote panic. Yes I agree things are bad and probably going to get worse before they get better but how about some positive thinking.
Negativity only promotes more of the same. If you are promoting community, networking and supporting each other – perhaps you could do the same. No wonder you lost the election.
Gary T
Kelowna BC

#30 dotava on 11.10.08 at 1:15 pm

Most of you gals/guys are thinking that Garth playing jokes on us – unfortunately that is reality what is coming and if we are “lucky” we will just have power outages (for few days like in August 2003). I can tell by reaction on the blog who have a clue what we are facing. That is understandable as always “denial” is the first phase. No reason to ask anyone just recall the TV shows about rest of the world and you will find how things can be behind believes and that history repeat self.

#31 dotava on 11.10.08 at 1:25 pm

Sorry I meant beyond believes.

#32 Jehovah on 11.10.08 at 1:34 pm

I think that sound was Garth falling off the deep end. I come here for honest, fact-driven analysis of real-estate trends, not End of Days biblical nonsense. You’re treading awfully close to that line that separates the contrarians from the kooks. Watch your step.

And that comes from a guy named “Jehovah”? — Garth

#33 Future Expatriate on 11.10.08 at 1:37 pm

Folks, relax. Garth didn’t say this is GOING TO ABSOLUTELY HAPPEN; he is telling you what you need to know IF God FORBID, the worst SHOULD happen.

That said and done, I think I’m finally packing. Canada is going to be far better off than the nuclear disaster coming to the US via Bush/Cheney’s last days and Obama/Biden, whether Obama survives or not.

#34 Jehovah on 11.10.08 at 1:45 pm

The name was intended sarcastically, which I assumed would be self-explanatory.

Sarcasm now escapes me. Too much squirrel meat. — Garth

#35 brazer on 11.10.08 at 1:54 pm

U.S. couple to raffle off house

WATERFORD TOWNSHIP, Mich. – It’s not easy selling homes these days.

Just ask Joe and Penelope VanDevelder, who haven’t been able to rid themselves of their Detroit-area home in a traditional way.

So they’re going to raffle it off instead.

The Oakland Press of Pontiac reports the Waterford Township couple are offering raffle tickets for their 1,500-square-foot home at $100 apiece. They’ll draw once they sell 2,500 tickets.

Joe VanDevelder says he saw the idea on TV and decided it was worth a shot after failing to sell their four-bedroom house with lake access after 18 months on the market.


desperate times for call for desperate measures…

#36 brazer on 11.10.08 at 1:58 pm


Garth, what is your position regarding the possibility of the feds bailing out the CAD auto sector?


#37 midas on 11.10.08 at 2:29 pm

#32 Jehovah…”not End of Days biblical nonsense.”

Only those who live in a fantasy ‘Matrix’ world believe that the world always moves in a nice linear direction with no major deviations so that they can plan their life from womb to grave and expect life to stick to their script. However disasters of Biblical proportions have befallen the Earth time and again. Only those ignorant of history will continue to believe that IT CAN NEVER HAPPEN IN OUR TIME! Well the fact of the matter is that these things have to happen in someone’s time and all signs point to them happening in our time on a scale that no one can accurately predict. So why not be wise and prepare? If a meteorologist is warning that a CAT 6 hurricane is headed our way should we continue to call him a doomsayer just because the skies are currently blue? The need to stock up on water and supplies is before the hurricane hits not during or after the storm when it is too late and most likely those who did not board up their windows have already perished.

Right until the summer of ’39 the majority did not believe that destruction on a scale not seen even in the Great War would befall most of Europe in a few short months and years. We are now in the spring of ’39 at best and if VP elect Mr. Joe Biden’s predictions are correct then we have a maximum of 6 months from inauguration day January 20th till a disaster of Biblical proportions befalls our world and North America in particular. So if these cold hard facts are too difficult for anyone to stomach then they should go back to watching Oprah or Let’s Make a Deal and not worry about us doomsayers since we survivalists are always fringe elements that have gone off the deep end! Thanks for jumping off the deep end Garth! No need to apologize or to change your tune and remember even billionaire Marc Farber’s website http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/portalgbd/homegbd.cfm is GLOOM BOOM DOOM. Since the boom is almost certainly past that only leaves gloom and doom. For those of us who have already swallowed the red pill it is impossible to go back to the Matrix; we choose to live in the REAL WORLD and plan our lives accordingly!

#38 Dawn in Calgary on 11.10.08 at 2:29 pm

Not Canada or RE related, just more layoff news coming from the US

Postal Service Looks To Cut 40,000 Jobs In First Layoff In History


#39 905er on 11.10.08 at 2:47 pm

Ha ha, what will Charliegosurf say?

#40 Kelowna Gal on 11.10.08 at 3:58 pm

Hey Mr. Turner,
I was reading your “Squirrel alert” when my doorbell rang and who was at my door????? The Jehovah’s witnesses with their Watch Tower magazine. Between reading this article, and having the doomsday JW’s here, I’m a bit frazzled to say the least. Do you honestly believe that it could get this bad? I’m off to Starbucks. Just in case it’s my last cup of java……. :(

#41 doom and gloom on 11.10.08 at 4:00 pm

Wow…..this site has hit a new low. Are you high Garth?

#42 Kitchener1 on 11.10.08 at 4:12 pm

Garth, great ideas in your article. To all those who look at this as doom and gloom, its a great backup plan. Most people have no idea how ugly things can turn in a matter of days.

Look at Katrina, or even the blackout we had in Toronto, do you think that things would have gone the same way had the power been out for 7 days, what about 14days.

Have you guys ever witnessed how fast the shelves clear out from superstore before a hurricane? People know there are no more supplies for at least a week, what if there were no more supplies coming for a month?

It does not hurt to have a Generator on hand as well as some food and water and a back place to live. Also a good idea to have a little extra to have on hand for friends and family.

We might not get a depression but we are surly in for one dandy of rescession, one that we have not seen the likes of for decades.

#43 My_View on 11.10.08 at 4:13 pm

Oh Boy,

I`m looking to buy R/E in the next year. Not a trailer , land, seeds or a gun. If anything I will buy a gun and that will get me everything else on the check list.

#44 Downsized and Delighted on 11.10.08 at 4:17 pm

And now everyone, it’s time to take your cyanide pill and go to bed in “Garthtown”.

#45 Jimster on 11.10.08 at 4:34 pm

100 Items to Disappear First


#46 Jelly on 11.10.08 at 4:36 pm

Kevin in Winnipeg and Lori,

You people obviously do not read much.

What Garth is writing about is hardly over the top.

I have read PLENTY of financial author’s in the

last few years that write about being prepared in a

financial crisis. His posting is not crazy in the least.

Just because you have never lived through a

depression does not mean it can’t happen.

You are too naive to even grasp it,

it has nothing to do with Garth being an MP,

what a stupid comment.

Shit happens, what would you rather be:

prepared or stupidly bewildered?

You can piss off if you come crying to me

that you have no food.

Some of you really are ignorant buffoons.

#47 Jelly on 11.10.08 at 4:48 pm


Good Post!!

#48 building a box on 11.10.08 at 4:56 pm

Well if its going to be that bad then i might as well start buiding a box and get myself a piece of rope LOL!!

#49 tounguestump on 11.10.08 at 5:00 pm

The Kumbaya crowd is certainly going to love this post. Thanks for telling it like it is. Squirrel Alert reminds me of my comment name. A friend of mine in the entertainment business is an animal trainer. He lost half of his tongue when an amazon bird he was showing at the Vegas bird show bit it off during a demonstration. It was a downer on his career couldn’t say skunk it came out “kunk”, squirrel was “kwirl” didn’t go over well during cable appearances.
Keep up the good work. Found several generators on craigslist. Don’t feel very good about lowballing when you can crunch real value. Keep up the good work. P.S. we use to tease tonguestump that he got that way from kissing so much ass. Bad humor, great friend.

#50 What will you DO? on 11.10.08 at 5:05 pm

Garth, Since your giving us all this advise and info on what is going on in the world today, i would like to know what are you doing to prepare yourself are you selling off you realestate and your motorcycle etc…. are you buying more gold and silver and what about all you assest?

Don’t worry about me. I’m ready for anything. — Garth

#51 Brad on 11.10.08 at 5:19 pm

While I’m waiting for my mail-order generator and Rottweiler to arrive (being out in the country and all), I thought I’d try and inject a little bit of levity here:

Turns out someone has already beaten us to the punch in terms of the squirrel meat thing — by marketing dehydrated squirrel meat!:


And cute cartoon about the stock market:


Enjoy! (but not too much! :)


p.s. Still enjoy your posts Garth…certainly always keeping us on our toes!

#52 nota bene on 11.10.08 at 5:20 pm

Some interesting stats: GTA Housing Market Outlook – Will Dunning Economic Research (http://www.wdunning.com/docs/2008-11-05-Rescon.pdf)

#53 What will you DO? on 11.10.08 at 5:22 pm

Garth, you still never answered my question about your assest?

#54 islander on 11.10.08 at 5:40 pm

Regarding an earlier comment re: JWs.
I grew up with plenty of prejudices against Jehovah’s Witnesses.
In recent years, I’ve met quite a number of Witnesses. On a personal level, they are some of the nicest people I have ever met. On a professional level I can’t think of better clients to serve.
Their level of support for one another is off the charts. This goes for good times and bad. But in our current climate it also means that their community is prepared for hard times.
OK, laugh all you want if you don’t buy into the Rapture or End Times from a biblical perspective, but when the stores run out of food (just check out Iceland’s situation) or the utilities stop pumping water or providing electricity (could be from a catastrophic storm or economic collapse) the JWs will have food, fresh water and a support network.
The rest of us will be clammering to be bailed out of our misery, with only our own complacency to blame.
Garth is doing you people a service. If you don’t believe him, check out Public Safety Canada’s emergency preparedness kit.

#55 islander on 11.10.08 at 5:41 pm


#56 kc on 11.10.08 at 5:47 pm

There seems to be a divide here among opinions, I would like to shed some light into some of the diferences. Most importantly readers of this site need to keep in mind one thing, this is the age of the readers.

how many are under 40? And of these younger readers how many have ever asked your parents/grandparents about what life was like during the 80’s and the early 70’s? have you ever talked to your grandparents about how they lived thru the war years and or the 30’s? If you have parents/grandparents who lived thru these years do you think to yourselves that these stories seem convoluted, made up and/or out right lies?

My guess is that we as a society can’t fathom history repeating itself. Younger than 40 in here makes for a short history and even less memories of the 80’s. I for one am 40, however, I am not ignorant to what transpired in the 80’s, for I left home at 14 because it was 1 less mouth for my mom to feed. Luckily enough I had a job to go to.

My grandmother (rest her soul) often said many times over and over; “the way i see it, we are heading into another depression, the world is living on tomorrow’s dreams”

people over 40 in here have insight into the real world, from history and from growing up with parents/grandparents who lived directly in the years of true hardship. I will venture to guess these people still remember going to visit thier grandparents house and the fridge would be filled to the brim with leftovers, cubboards stuff full of this and that (for who knows when one may need it) grandparents looking at you after a day shopping and having them say “you spent how much …. back in my day…” think back into the time when we as a society were NOT a throw away society (as we are today) then look hard at what Garth has written about above, then say to yourself, “Can history repeat itself”

many posts back I was sneered at for asking if anyone actualy reads history anymore, and I stated 1 book titled “10 lost years, by Barry Broadfoot” the people in that book lived throu what Garth talks about today.

Cheers Garth for the insightful thoughts, Doom & Gloom…? I feel no, I feel you just said it as it is and or may well come to be. the pill of truthful thinking will get lodged in the throats of the ones with their haeds in the sands.


#57 hkris on 11.10.08 at 5:49 pm

Garth is trying to sell his new book. Everybody will get exited to read it. Good marketing move Garth

#58 confused and a little crazed on 11.10.08 at 5:52 pm

come on garth…
I beleive your assessments for the most part but it can’t be that bad. Your Squirrel theory is just short of armagedoen.

Worst case senario is maybe neg growth for 2-3 years
after that 1-3% growth for 3 for 4 years ish

#59 hkris on 11.10.08 at 5:52 pm

Don’t tell squirel yet, they will get prepared

#60 Jon B on 11.10.08 at 6:22 pm

Garth, just cut to the chase. What are the chances we’ll experience a depression in your opinion? If the explanation is in your upcoming book, I might be too busy by the time it hits my local Chapters store with my new hunting and seed hoarding schedule. I need to know now before things get real bad.

#61 pbrasseur on 11.10.08 at 6:34 pm

What is the titlle of you book, GLOOM & DOOM UNLEASHED?

Get real, this is just a recession,maybe a solid one but still just a recession.

#62 Rob on 11.10.08 at 6:45 pm

WTF?!? Does anybody read the whole entry? Garth clearly says,
“As I write my new book. I have been asked for some pointers on surviving a depression.”

And as such, he has provided pointers. And they would be useful pointers by that token. He is not saying there will be a depression.

#63 Just a Girl on 11.10.08 at 6:55 pm

#35 brazer, re: raffling unsold house

One should, of course, consult with provincial gaming officials, on regulations and laws before commencing one’s own public raffle …

#64 Mike on 11.10.08 at 7:04 pm

Hey Everyone,


Here’ s a GREAT article today from MSNBC about how a lot of home sellers in the US are still in denial. This is what’s happening/going to happen here in the not too distant future.


#65 Bottoms_Up on 11.10.08 at 7:04 pm

If Garth is right–let’s hope and pray he isn’t–then we will not have enough $ to buy his book. If he isn’t right, then we should be happy we avoided the worst capitalistic disaster ever and be happy to shell out 30 (borrowed) dollars to buy it. :)

ps. RE comment #51, the marketing of dried squirrel meat was a joke

pps. RE comment #56, I’m 30 years old and believe we will see a global depression to the extent never before experienced. However, in the 1930’s they didn’t have the same amount of ‘stuff’ as we have today. I wonder if ‘stuff’ will provide any sort of buffering effect? (i.e. I can always burn my piano and hundreds of school books for heat)

#66 dd on 11.10.08 at 7:41 pm

“And some smart people are saying the Dow at just under 9,000 will be heading to 400”

I hope you mean 4000. At 400 … get off of it.

Even if it is 4000 … it like these people saw the dow head to 45,000 in 2012. They swing harder the other way.

Lets just hope they bring panic … then we will buy equities and clean up.


Bob Prechter, of Elliott Wave fame. Worth the Google. — Garth

#67 dd on 11.10.08 at 7:45 pm


This sounds like the case after peak oil.

#68 dd on 11.10.08 at 7:48 pm

#61 pbrasseur,

True. The governments are throwing money at this one. It is be a recession greater that 80-81.

What Garth is predicting is the depression after peak oil.

#69 calgary rip off on 11.10.08 at 7:48 pm

Fabulous news for the cost of home ownership in Calgary!!! No longer will buyers be penalized because they didnt buy their house before 2004!!!

I hope houses end up costing $20,000 in Calgary. That should clear away the riff raff.

As it stands though Garth, I dont see those predictions occurring, although it has occurred to me to hunt bear. Bears as dangerous animals, should be eaten. And if you hit a deer on the road, if you are still living, consider it good eatin for your family in your cooler.

Where did I say these were predictions? Man, you guys need to learn to read. — Garth

#70 brazer on 11.10.08 at 7:54 pm

Starbucks profits drop 97 per cent

Canadian businesses lose confidence

GM shares plunge, GMAC may not survive

#71 brazer on 11.10.08 at 7:56 pm

#63 just a girl

raffle put on hold….say it ain’t so joe….


#72 brazer on 11.10.08 at 7:59 pm

Pink slips handed to 300 workers at Windsor plant that supplies Ford
Mon Nov 10, 2008

WINDSOR, Ont. – Layoff notices have gone out to 300 workers at the Nemak Essex Aluminum Plant in Windsor, Ont.

The cuts take effect Feb. 9, 2009, and will affect employees with less than 14 years of seniority. Nemak Aluminum is a joint venture between Ford of Canada and Nemak, which in turn is owned by Alfa of Mexico.

#73 Derrin on 11.10.08 at 8:06 pm

Fear sells. Your book should sell well.
Good hunting Garth.

Unfortunately, you are a little late to the publishing party. This Chapter has been written and can be viewed at your local bookstore. Shelves of doom and gloom.
It’s the new commodity and it’s renewable.

Enjoy the fear and anxiety of the 21st

This is not what my book is about, just 300 words on a topic I thought folks here might find of some interest. — Garth

#74 brazer on 11.10.08 at 8:08 pm

Stock Market To Fall Another 20%-25%: Roubini
http://www.cnbc.com//id/27643300 (video link)

The economy will worsen in the coming months and cause the market to fall another 20 to 25 percent in the United States and abroad, said Nouriel Roubini, a New York University business professor, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday.

“There’s going to be negative growth all the way to the end of 2009,” he said. “The surprises from now are going to be on the downside, for the economy, for earnings, for the financial system.”

Job losses will accelerate in the next months, Roubini said, and he expects a weak economic recovery in the short and mid-term.

“There’s going to be a very slow recovery, because you have the financial system that’s impaired; earnings are not going to grow very fast, and therefore the stock market will go sideways for quite a while,” he said.

#75 Kestral on 11.10.08 at 8:19 pm

To #56 kc

I am a child of the 80’s and I remember a family member was “invested” in real estate at the time. As a kid, I remember one day in the late 80’s when my parents told me a family member had bought a house up in Markham for $500K, and within a few short months, was forced to sell it for $250K and take a huge loss.

So for me, when people tell me it couldn’t possibly happen that a house would drop 20% let alone 50%, I just have to sit back and laugh. There’s a saying that someone wise once told me: lessons are repeated until they are learned.

History repeats itself because society has not learned its lesson. Either that or it’s forgotten the lessons of old.

From what I have been told by older people who were there during the late 80’s real estate bust (and also the rise), this past boom cycle made the 80’s one look like small peanuts, so I can only anticipate that housing will fall *at least* 50% if that is the case.

#76 Signal Loss on 11.10.08 at 8:23 pm

Hmm. I work in downtown TO. My wife works locally. We live in a small unit in a tower at a mid-suburban GO Train node. Moving to the country is not an option unless we want to give up our careers, which at this remove, seems like the most financially devastating thing we could possibly do. We can’t have a garden because, well, we live in a building. While we could propose a garden on the surrounding common greenspace, the garden would not be large enough that everyone could get decent share of the produce. Therefore, not very feasible. And we are reliant on electricity generated off-site, since, again, we live in a tower. In other words, we’ve gone in for low-footprint, high-density living, as have many hundreds of thousands of others throughout southern Ontario. These survivalist solutions are fine if you’re retired, or you’re a craftsperson who makes candles and only needs a workshop in a small outbuilding or something, but most of us work in late 20C occupations, and depend on late 20C society. Tough crap for us i guess.

#77 squidly77 on 11.10.08 at 8:27 pm

this really is the real thing..i dont believe that it will get that bad but it may come close losing power for extended intervals is definitely possible
all banks have back up generators as do malls and most large buildings and its not a bad idea for everybody to own a generator..but this is where i disagree
your #8 suggestion needs to go straight to #1
because if you have anything of value somebody will attempt to take it and dont expect the police to be around
to help you out
peoples biggest fear should be that they will have to fend for themselves and learn to survive without the creature comforts of home
you will be disadvantaged though because you will have to compete with hardened and sometime violent bin divers who have been surviving on the streets for years
i guess every dog gets his day and the bin divers day may be soon

myself..if anything chaotic should occur my feet will be facing south and i would start walking to warmer areas if it were summer..if it was winter that scenario is out the window but perhaps gold could afford you some other passage
the borders of the USA and Canada would fall as they will be overwhelmed by the masses of people trying to exit Canada all at the same time
most city dwellers are not capeable of winter survival without heat or power and those that attempt to stay would surely perrish ..LOL and lots of them

dow to 4000 is pretty much a sure thing and nothing is impossible because as soon as you say that its impossible it will surely occur

people who are still bullish on the stock market
i ask you one question..when will the markets recieve some prolonged good news ?

in my opinion not for a very long time

#78 timbo on 11.10.08 at 8:42 pm

here’s a site to ponder and goes along the lines to what garth is saying


#79 Derrin on 11.10.08 at 8:59 pm

To those that keep defending the point that Garth is not predicting a depression of great magnitude. Why the “pointers”? Not much point is there.

I dare you to look at a graph of the GDP over the last 100 years in USA and see this is part of the cycle.
We won’t be hunting squirrels.
People forget that the depression in Canada was not just economic turmoil. It was a drought that occurred across the prairies.

Relax a little people.

#80 are we at wave C on 11.10.08 at 9:15 pm

garth, what wave are we at wave C of the elliott wave

#81 dd on 11.10.08 at 9:38 pm

#29 Gary T and others,

Re-read the post. Yes, Garth gives us a list; some of it is a joke but it might get us to think a bit.

Remember why we are on this site. To think differently.
To be creative in our thinking.

#82 cassandra on 11.10.08 at 9:48 pm


It’s hardly surprising that some of the posters here think you are crazy. Our economy (and the energy upon which it is based) has been growing almost forever…well, as long as they have been alive, which to them, is forever. They simply can’t conceive of even the possibility that things might go horribly, catastrophically wrong….it’s never happened before, it can’t happen now, the government/science/technology will fix it for us, don’t worry, everything will be ok!

What you are suggesting will not be news to anyone who has lived in the Third World (ie, most of the planet), or is old enough to remember “Hard Times” in the First World (talk to any senior). Much of what you say is on The Automatic Earth, The Oil Drum, Market Ticker, and many other politics/economics/energy sites….you have to just turn off the TV awhile, read all you can, think it through, and let it all sink in. I work in an office full of the somnolent, who are far more concerned about last nights reality show than what is actually happening around them. Some of them even live in your riding, and voted for you in the last election. I couldn’t vote for you, as I live far from the GTA…I refused to buy into their 30 year mortgages and outrageous home prices. Wow..am I glad I didn’t fall into that trap.

What you have written is common sense for anyone preparing for a Great Depression. We may yet avert it, and get a severe recession instead. But it would be folly not to at least consider the idea, and prepare for the possibility everything might unravel as you and others have suggested. For those of you who think the idea is silly, fine…there’s about a thousand channels of distraction that will keep you busy while the rest of us prepare for something that will never happen here.


#83 The Dude on 11.10.08 at 9:50 pm

Thanks Garth
I was having a bad day. I needed a good laugh.

#84 Disbeliever on 11.10.08 at 9:54 pm

I’m so glad that Gareth believes in recycling. First with Y2K, then that got to be recycled after 11/9 and then now.

Good job Gareth, good job. Way to support the environment!

Those who can only see the fragility and breed into the fears of others are themselves weak for they have nothing to offer.

That’s Nine Eleven, dude. — Garth

#85 confused and a little crazed on 11.10.08 at 9:56 pm

yes i see your point garth,

i read yours and then the other comments. It likes that kid’s game ” pass it on” but the message gets distorted with each person by the end it completely exaggerated

#86 kc on 11.10.08 at 9:56 pm

#79 Darrin

“It was a drought that occurred across the prairies.”

My friend, you need to read some history. What happened to the praries during the 30’s had nothing to do with the depression, what caused the “Dust Bowl” was from plowing up the furtile soil. However, you need to back up 20 years before then to understand that the dust bowl (drought) was a natural climatic cycle (that unfortunately happened to also happen during the 30’s) before the praries where settled and the land was given away to UK farmers who migrated the early reports said that the land was perfect to farm. However what they didn’t do was look further into history to read reports from earlier explorers who said they came into bast desert like areas.

Now if you knew your history you would know that during the late 20’s grain was at record prices and that farmers racked in, and the years that followed the grain was still sitting in the grain elevators. during 29 was a world wide bumper crop in wheat and the prices plummeted.

The dust bowl was just a ecological freak that happened to hit when growing food was most needed for the people on the praries.

#87 wealthy renter on 11.10.08 at 9:56 pm


Garth’s posts have been so dark lately, that it is not hard to miss the black humour.

What might not be a joke is half a generation of economic malaise and anemic economic growth. At the very least, nobody appears to be buying the, “Two bad quarters, and then prosperity” mantra that was bandied about a month ago.

I am guessing that most of thought the Chinese stimulus package would have pumped the TSX up by 5% or more today. Yet, the DOW and the TSX basically discounted a general boon to commodities, and focused more on negative earnings news.

These are nervous times.

#88 wealthy renter on 11.10.08 at 9:59 pm

Dagnabbit, sorry, it is dd (I didn’t have swirl of Squirrel this weekend, but I did have Cantonese style sand worms.)

Equal brain food.

#89 GenXer on 11.10.08 at 10:03 pm

The biggest travesty of this site is that some really smart people who have waited for a correction in housing and stock prices are all trying to time the bottom of those respective markets.

Over-estimating the downward trend is the WORST thing you can do when faced with a situation like today’s. Did anyone notice that the TSX has already put in a floor at 9,000 points? Anyone who missed the 1,000 point rebound got screwed waiting for the sky to fall.

My sincere advice to you all is to be careful overestimating the lows. There is still a lot of wealth on the sidelines waiting to come back into markets, and dollar cost averaging can provide you with some solid risk management.

We have moved into a buyer’s market in real estate. True, we haven’t reached anywhere close to bottom, but we’re getting better value for the money. As we go through this market correction, don’t wait for things to be free before you jump into the pool.

I’ll hold your towel for you, son. — Garth

#90 bcgirl on 11.10.08 at 10:06 pm

Thanks again Garth…great post, and it does take some courage to address these things openly because, in fact, people are very fearful and don’t want to think that these things can happen.

I have many memories of my grandparents stories about living on the praires during the Great Depression. They would have applauded this advice. They used to say that living in the country on a farm was what saved them, and many people had it worse than they did. Yet to me their experiences were of great deprivation. Unbelievable really.

I have friends who live in the country, have a beautiful home and gardens with a lovely orchard. Wood stove. They bought a generator last year. They’ve never said anything out of possibly looking paranoid I think. And I’ve never mentioned their preparations, I just think of their home as ” the compound”…smart people. Really.

#91 Veteran's Salute on 11.10.08 at 10:33 pm

Be British everybody, stiff upper lip and all that.

No running around in an uncivilized manner. STOP THAT! Like a chicken with it’s head cut off. Disgraceful old boy! For goodness sake it’s just a bit of a bloody downer to weather.

Learn to clip coupons and no qu jumping at the soup kitchen.

#92 Derrin on 11.10.08 at 10:47 pm

KC #86

Your last sentence is what I said.

The roaring 20’s yes. The depression 30’s.

Read …….how about read what you write before you send it off into internet land.


#93 CalgaryRocks on 11.10.08 at 11:03 pm

Do check your local bylaws before hunting squirrels, on your favorite bike path.

Anyone signed up for their Posession & Aquisition License course yet?

#94 Kestral on 11.10.08 at 11:10 pm

One last thought, considering that governments seem to be willing to throw more printed money and keep interest rates low (which is what Japan did over a decade ago when their Titanic hit the iceberg), would it be more likely that instead of a depression scenario, we get a Japan scenario, where we’ll suffer throw doldrums for 10 years, while housing and stocks go down year after year for a decade straight?

#95 nonplused on 11.10.08 at 11:14 pm

#25 midas

I don’t think fishing is the solution. Right now most of western Canada is catch and release and fishing stocks are still in decline. One month of people treating the rivers as a food source and the fish will be extinct. Plus, if everyone is going to ignore the law and fish for food, why not use a net? A volleyball net is probably good in most streams. The fish will be extinct in 2 weeks instead of a month but at least you’ll have them all.

#26 smwhite

I tried stocking up on whisky and cigarettes but my stocks keep disappearing!

#39 905er

Charlie will be stocking up on weed, man….

Who says you need to suffer in a depression??

#43 My_View

Almost anybody who takes the time to get all the other essentials stocked up has thought of the gun too. So you will be taking fire while acquiring your essentials. But even if you succeed, even in the worst of times societies tend to band together and ensure that people behaving in such a manner are purged from the system. Hence the “posse”. So, after having killed to acquire your essentials you will certainly have to kill many, many more to maintain them, including the entire police force. They never shut down the police force. Actually officers become much cheaper to hire in a depression because everyone is unemployed.

#77 squidly77

You’d walk south? I’d be more worried about how we are going to deal with all the desperate people walking north.


While nobody can forecast how the world comes out of this thing I think one thing is abundantly clear. The world’s governments are panicking! Like as in acting in utter fear and terror. The US government has so far unleashed 16 separate stimulus and bailout packages in less than 12 months costing a total of 2 trillion dollars and it’s done nothing! Or if it has I hate to think where we would be had they not panicked and done what they done. And now the rest of the world has decided to panic too (China is throwing $500 billion in, the Swiss are seizing banks, Europe is, well, panicking.) Everywhere you look the news is worse.

But anyway even if they manage to sort this thing out without so much as a spattering of rain there are plenty of good reasons to have some emergency provisions on hand. Does anybody remember the Quebec ice storms? Or how about the North American power outage in was it 2003? People don’t realize how close that one was because it happened mid summer. If it had been a cold winter thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of people would have died and houses would have been damaged in the millions.

I used to work for a natural gas utility and we did some security of supply work around what would happen if we lost one of our major supply sources during a cold snap. The results were rather ominous. Basically, what happens if the pipe breaks is that eventually the pressure in a large part of the affected area goes to atmospheric, such that now the remaining supply and demand is balanced and the rest of the houses just aren’t getting any gas. When that happens the regulator by your meter is designed to “shut in” to prevent the possibility of air being sucked into the line. Your pilots also all go out which is a problem on older furnaces. But even the new furnaces will not turn on when the gas pressure comes back up, because until the regulator is reset there is no gas. So some guys at the company looked at how many houses we would loose if we lost this or that pipeline and some other guys looked at how long it would take to reset all the regulators and relight all the furnaces. If we had hired every plumber and gasfitter in the city to do nothing else for 12 hours a day it was going to take 6 weeks! 6 weeks of pipes freezing and breaking all over the affected area! Plus it seemed sensible to predict that many people would try to reset the regulator themselves and manage to burn down their house when they purged the lines incorrectly.

There are all kinds of events that warrant a person to be self sufficient for up to 2 weeks in the winter that are more predictable than finance. Storms, grid failures, supply failures (think about those pipeline fatigue explosions, or now the environmental terrorist explosions in northern BC), earthquakes, or if you live on the west coast maybe even tsunamis, volcanoes in Washington, disease outbreaks, $hit if you think about it too much you’ll definitely be stocking mostly whiskey.

The seeds are the cheapest part so through them in as a worst case scenario type of thing.

#96 POL-CAN on 11.10.08 at 11:25 pm

# 94 Kestral

I like the way you think but Japan only had a housing bubble….. What we have here is way off the charts….

People in Japan actually save money and have a good manufacturing based economy… We have services :)

Here is a good analysis from Mish about the difference….


If you search his site you can find many more posts on this topic….

#97 POL-CAN on 11.10.08 at 11:28 pm


The time stamps on our posts are off by an hour… DST not implemented?

#98 kathy on 11.10.08 at 11:31 pm

Hi Garth,
I am a true fan; stopped looking for my new home this past Spring after i read your blog and i am now so glad i did not buy.

can you tell me where you got the reference for this? “…And Iceland? ……….. where 30% of the population wants to leave.”

NYT front page, yesterday. — Garth

#99 nonplused on 11.10.08 at 11:46 pm

I have a septic field (on a water co-op) and know lots of people with wells. The problem with these as they are normally installed is that they are very electric intensive. The well obviously has a large pump lifting the water and pressuring it up. Expect to need 1500 watts to start it (lower run consumption). The septic tank will have a pump as well to lift the settled water to the septic field. I do not know how big these pumps are (not as much work) but expect to need up to 1500 watts to start it as well. Modern septic systems also have an air pump to inject air and speed the natural biological process which will also need to be run longer term. So you might need a 4000 watt generator just to run those systems, although it won’t be running at 100% much and may also be able to run lighting and stuff that can take the surge when the pumps kick in.

My water co-op appears to have a standby generator but I don’t know who operates it or how much fuel they have on hand.

We have a lot of squirrels though. And the deer walk right up to the house at night. A compound bow should do, just sit on my upstairs balcony and wait. Until we run out of deer of course, they walk up to the neighbours’ houses too.

#100 squidly77 on 11.10.08 at 11:59 pm

i have some of old snares somewhere..gonna dig em out
and dream about cajun squirrel for supper tomorrow night

i also hear that roasted sparrow on a stick is quite delicious when done over an open fire
and if my neighbour has chickens in his back yard and i get hungry he wont have chickens in his back yard anymore
rule #8 needs to be #1

#101 Republic of Western Canada on 11.10.08 at 11:59 pm

It’s hilarious reading all the negative sentiment and whining coming from the financial ‘industry’, right across every media or publication you can find. Truth is, it’s nowhere near as bad as the more serious, abysmal crash of ‘high-tech’ a mere 7 years ago.

Back then, people (and highly-educated, capable people at that, not just the present bunch of overextended, over-mortgaged retail workers & white-collar bums) really were living in their cars, or on the street, on in trailers down by the river, or in yurts in forgotten places. The really lucky ones (occasionally with multiple PHD’s) were stocking shelves in the Valley’s supermarkets at minimum wage. The rest were forced into forgotten small towns in Arkansas and North Dakota working as waitresses or farm help part-time at minimum wage, or into indentured servitude by massive student loans for post-grad degrees. Hundreds of thousands of these ‘best and brightest’ people lost their jobs and careers in the space of a few months. That was just a bit more than a half-dozen years ago too – no need to talk to any white-haired retired people to get the news.

We’re nowhere near the kind of savage, sudden, total job loss which were typical of those times. The transfer payment-sucking creeps and bums of eastern Canada’s Toronto have long since become nothing more than whiny rodents of that northern Detroit suburb. Whenever unemployment there goes over 6.5%, they squeal like stuck pigs. Get a grip.

I’m glad you remember how to cope. Fifty-dollar oil will bring it all back. — Garth

#102 POL-CAN on 11.11.08 at 12:03 am

#95 and 99 Nonplused

Thanks for the laughs :)

#103 Derrin on 11.11.08 at 12:05 am


To the history buff.

Here is wikipedia:
Read it. All of it.

Over Production and Expansion – Canada’s companies expanded their industries so they could handle more, but unfortunately didn’t get the significant demand for goods and services and were forced to fire workers and diminish cost.

Dependence on Few Primary Products – Canada’s decrease in natural resources created a significant drop in sales causing an economical depression.

Dependence on the United States – Due to the dependency Canada had on the U.S., when an economic depression hit the States, Canada was thrust into one as well.

High Tariffs – Canada’s efforts to get out of a recession by raising export tariffs only backfired due to competition from other countries and Canada’s lack of variety in its exports.

Too Much Credit – Canadians bought too much on lease and credit including stocks. Therefore when the stock market crashed (partly due to the credit buying), Canadians were in debt and faced a trying time as they attempted to sell their personal belongings or were having their half paid-off possessions repossessed.

The Drought and Dust Bowl – The Prairies were hit extremely hard by several years of drought. Dust storms swept across the prairies, making it impossible for farmers to grow the copious quantities of wheat they needed to provide for the markets. Lack of rain kept the wheat that survived the dust storms from growing tall and healthy. Thus, since the farmers had frequently bought their seed and machinery by using credit, when they couldn’t pay off their debts, the farmers were often bankrupted.”

Thanks for the info I think I will go with the Wiki.

#104 Kestral on 11.11.08 at 12:24 am


Thanks for the link. Mish is an old friend from the days of when he had (and still has) a board on The Motley Fool. You can check my profile on there (been a member there for over 10 years).

Good point about the savings rate, just like the US, Canada is not a nation of savers like Japan was.

That being the case, I’d much prefer to muddle through a la Japan than to hunt squirrels, I really hope it doesn’t come to that.

#105 JO on 11.11.08 at 12:26 am

I refer to EWave for perspective as one of the items that make up what i look at. I think the core premise of the EW theory is sound. The mood of the public, as reflected in the movements of the broad stock averages, drives the market’s move, not news. News is a result of the mood, and mood does not change due to any external stimuli – that’s why EW practioners tell you these bailout / stimulus announcements mean nothing beyond the first 5-15 minute raw reaction. I follow Mr.Prechter from time to time. His best work is not wave counting, but the emerging body of knowledge called Socionomics which is an outreach of EW but applies it to political and cultural trends. It has been called the Engine of History. As useful as EW is, it does have some major shortcomings. It is extremely subjective and is often challenged in real time to provide a valid interpretation of the next move. Hence, EW analysts usually tell you..the market will go up as long as XXX level is not broken. Anyway, enough of this. As for count as of right now, the guys I watch (and there are very few good EW technicians) have us in a 4th wave up, with wave 5 of 3 coming up. Wave 4 has been and likely will be a choppy affair. A break of 900 on good volume that sticks will be a sign the final impulsive wave down has started. Another EW tech has Wave 3 of C done already, and this wave is 4 of C (not 4 of 3 of C). Anyway, bottom line is EW states the bottom is not in by any stretch at all. A break of SP500 into the 600’s with a chance at under 600 is possible. As for Prechter’s count on the nominal Dow, as well as for Gold, he has been dead wrong on both of these for a long time and many credible EW do not care for his long term count. He has been very accurate on Housing, Oil, and inflation-adjusted Dow so he has some great calls to his name. I would pay more attention to his dow under 400 call only if, once we go to new lows in the next 2-3 months and then, we break to new rally highs and re-break the lows of early 09 solidly and they hold. If this were to happen, it would actually mean his count may be most likely as this current sell off would be wave 1 of cycle wave C, and the powerful bear market rally that would follow would be wave 2 up (a corrective wave) , and the new decline into fresh lows would indicate wave 3 of cycle wave C (a horrifying prospect) which will lead to a great depression 2 and having all of us need Garth’s write up above to survive. Yes, it sounds confusing as hell, but once you understand the basics, it is easy to understand but very hard to label charts properly. A good tool for perspective (hindsight) and i use it in combo with fundamental analysis and traditional technical indicators/signals such as MACD, and EMA.

#106 thinLine on 11.11.08 at 12:43 am

The problem with living in a world where everything “just works” pretty much all the time, is that you get overconfident in what you perceive is your own individual control over what’s happening.

As an example, people who drive cars think that a car is a very controllable machine and that all you need to do is to be alert and to steer your way out of trouble. I’ve personally been in two 360 degree spinouts on the highway – one due to black ice on what seemed to be a dry road and another from hitting some drifting snow that had been blown onto the road. I can tell you that, as you’re spinning around and looking back at the cars coming towards you, the realization that the confidence you’ve always felt while driving is unwarranted and that you really have very little power to make that hunk of metal stop, hits you like cold water.

A similar sensation of being close to the edge and realizing that the day-to-day feeling of being in control of one’s life is illusory, hit me on the night of the 2003 blackout when, with the heat wave that we had and my son having a very high fever I was wondering if the hospitals that were running on marginal reserve power would be able to do anything in an emergency. Staying up in my car at two in the morning contemplating things, I was listening to the radio station (which was also running on generator power) mention that the city water works had a supply for only about a day and a half more and that the situation looked very bleak. At that point it was unclear how long the blackout could last, but it seemed that chances were not that remote that it could be quite a while.

What would the citizens of a city (Toronto, in my case) do for their survival if drinking water was unavailable? I’m guessing that we’d last the 2-3 days you can live without, but after that instincts would kick in and you’d be looking out for your own.

I suppose when only a few are suffering, you might expect help from the community, but if it all goes quickly and everyone is affected, friendliness is soon forgotten.

Anyhow, my point is that we’re all typically too confident that we can handle whatever life throws at us since we’ve clearly done well so far. Think it through – that’s all Garth’s saying.

#107 brazer on 11.11.08 at 12:45 am

Deutsche Post to cut 9,500 jobs in US

ATLANTA (AP) — Delivery company DHL, hit by heavy losses and fierce competition, is significantly reducing its air and ground operations in the U.S. and cutting 9,500 American jobs, leaving rivals like FedEx, UPS and the U.S. Postal Service to fight over the customers it will stop serving.

#108 Lance on 11.11.08 at 12:47 am

Forget the chickens… we’ll farm squirrels!

In all seriousness, having an emergency plan and supplies is sage advice, be it for economic disaster or natural. The chances for either may be remote (or not so remote) but if it does occur, you could make a frightful experience in to a manageable one.

That is, until your neighbours come over with large pointy sticks looking for your cache of food and water… Ma, git my gun!

#109 Blacksheep on 11.11.08 at 1:41 am

To all the people still in denial,

Anybody who really understands whats taking place in North america & the western world knows Garth’s fifteen point list, makes good sense.

I’m old enough to remember my parents home value tanking & them paying 19% interest on their mortgage.

I remember the lack of work in the early 80’s, that led me to go to school.

I bought my first home @ 13% and thought the rate was low.

In our “Just in time” delivery society, people depend
on the reliablity of others for their well being.

A question for all husbands/fathers,

How many days would you let your wife/children go without food, before you were forced to take action, regardless of the personal consequences?

This is a question i have no desire to answer.

I weighed two possible outcomes:

1] Assume there will be no real problems, Take no action, hoping the goverment, or good willed people will provide for my family, if there is a crisis.

2] Come to terms with the fact, that a recession seems unavoidable, with a depression, a destinct possibility.
Realize i’m personally responsible for my self and my family, be proactive and try to plan for all possible outcomes.

Plan # 2] just made sense.

Every one was so busy making money on the housing bubble, no one noticed, we went from a manufacting based economy to a consumers based economy, with declining home equity, the consumer is spent.

Confidence in the U.S. dollar is waining, it’s days are numbered, the Fed cannot print trillions of dollars with no reprecusions, there will soon come a day when some one will, publicly refuse payment in US$ or outright dump the dollar on the open market, spelling it’s demise.

At the very least, once this deflation cycle is done, we will see strong double digit inflation, depreciating the
dollar and taxing the people, yet again.

What can the Fed do, raise interest rates? that would be great for the economy!

To all who think garth’s/my comments are over the top,
should watch the whole 20 part series of videos @ Chris Martenson.com and draw your own conclusions.

Take care. BS

#110 dd on 11.11.08 at 1:44 am

#89 GenXer,

Watch out for the 1000 point rallies … up and down. All the bad news has not been price into the market. Earnings for Q4 2008 and Q1 2009 are going to be really really bad. Furthermore, the bottom has not been found in the housing markets. Until that time the markets will go down more.

#111 dd on 11.11.08 at 2:14 am

What happens to the US consumer:


#112 Jimster on 11.11.08 at 2:14 am

nonplused: My well pump requires more like 6000 watts to start and its rated to 20 feet. So I got a 8500 peak watt generator ($650 Cosco) for the pump and the freezers. Also have a smaller 1800 watt ($129 eBay)for the TV, computers, satilite dishs, smaller jobs, etc. Fuel may be hard to find.

#113 kc on 11.11.08 at 2:22 am

#96 pol-can.

read YEN! it was way more than just a housing bubble that brought Japan to its knees. Paper rich companies (over-inflated stocks) killed the economy. these rich companies pushed up the prices of RE past any point of reality.

#92 Derrin

My apoligies, I miss read what you were saying. we are on the same page. I took it that you stated that the dust bowls were part of the depression. When in fact the droughts compounded the hardships, is what you were actually saying.

#114 Simon on 11.11.08 at 2:24 am

Looks like someone has a book to sell!

#115 Simon on 11.11.08 at 2:28 am

Always risky to use other countries as a model of what may or may not happen here. Iceland is a very small country with a handful of banks, all of which offered interest rates higher than just about anyone else. When the music ended they were up the proverbial creek without a paddle and so was the country.

Do those conditions apply here in Canada?

#116 dd on 11.11.08 at 2:30 am

China spending $580 Billion – I hear that the government will have to sell gold to come up with the money. Is this true? Can China sell their own T-bills?

#117 $fromA$ia on 11.11.08 at 2:33 am

Garth, Should I put my money in a banks safety deposit box or take it home and put it in a safe?

#118 David on 11.11.08 at 2:38 am

People will get out of paying overwhelming mortgage debt in one fashion or another. The system will be clogged with quit claims for the next few years. Families will just simply stop paying their mortgages and wait for an overburdened legal system to run its course. Home debtors will wind up living mortgage and rent free while the system unwinds.
The garden thing is totally right on. I grew a big garden during the Alberta bust of 1985. I also had a homemade backyard greenhouse to help keep me in veggies and greens for 9 months a year.
Not sure about the dog argument. Only had three pedigreed Pembroke Welsh Corgis in my life and would not have anything else. They are incredibly intelligent, stubborn, loving and refuse to ever back down to anything. Pretty good and cheap to support at 10 Kg. body weight.
Avoid unecessary toilet flushing and idling the car at Tim Horton’s drive through. Drink basic tap water to hydrate the body.
Grow your own gourmet vegetables and fruits with seeds from


Turn the thermostat way down and buy heavy sweaters and thick socks. Poultry, rabbits and miniature cattle will help provide on the table.
The real estate bubble is OFFICIALLY over now in Canada.

#119 GrandePrairiegirl on 11.11.08 at 2:44 am

Wow, lots of folks in denial here.
Garth has simply given you some very good common sense tips for a what if scenario.
I’d try and follow up on at least some of them.
They say there are 5 stages of grief relating to ie: major life events,trauma,loss etc.
They are
1-Denial 2-Anger 3-Bargaining 4-Depression 5-Acceptance.
Obviously a lot of Denial going on here.

We are witnessing the end game of the fiat currency regime. It’s global and it will come here.
Have we ever seen so many stimulus packages,bailouts,summit meetings etc. Not just the U.S. but everywhere -EVERYWHERE.
I read alot online trying to find some glimmers of hope or any good news lately, it’s not happening and I think I’m already at the depression stage. Anyways…
There are also 5 Stages to Collapse :
1-Financial Collapse 2-Commercial Collapse 3-Political Collapse 4-Social Collapse and 5-Cultural Collapse
Now-Stage 1, Extensions of credit to those in trouble. Accepting worthless paper for collateral. Injecting money(liquidity) into insolvent banks and other institutions. All this does is devalues the money that already is in circulation and this will eventually lead to hyperinflation.
Now-Stage 2, Aside from the Banksters & Investment firms we now have nearly 2/3 of the world’s largest corporations running with negative net cash positions.
I’m not an economist and correct me if I’m wrong but that says the companies in trouble are earning less revenue than that which they need to at least run their operation. That’s spinning your wheels at zero gross profit. Some of those are of course GM & Ford, also Deutsche Post,Telecom Italia,Peugeot,Renault,BMW,Hyundai,Citic Pacific Ltd. A majority of automotive so far but that could expand to other sectors.
Not yet Stage- 3,4 & 5.
We can easily move to stage 3 when people wake up and realize that the governments efforts are not bringing forth the results expected. Though I believe the powers that be know what’s around the bend. G.W.Bush just brought home two more army brigades that brings the total to 4 brigades stateside I believe. Each brigade is between 3-6 thousand soldiers. And they will be training with Homeland Security for crowd control,civil unrest,riots,use of non lethal weapons for said control etc. as well as assisting local law enforcement agencies as and where needed.
That’s 24000 max for the moment,not enough in my opinion. They bring any more back and I’ll really start wondering. The U.N. also has peacekeeping troops available for dispatch.
And stage 5 is the one noone wants to see. This is where guns would come in.
The veneer of civility and acceptable behaviour in our society is extremely fine. There are some with the Kumbuya and love thy fellow man theories but I really doubt there are enough of them. (Oh me of little faith :) ) Larger centers and cities would deteriorate the fastest, and the bottom feeders would run rampant in no time at all. Gangs,Druggies,Dealers,Bikers the creme de la creme of society. Good luck with your verbal reasoning/negotiating skills when that time comes.

Everything is possible. Change is constant. Just because this has not happened in our lifetime to date does not mean it can’t. The government telling us
they’re going to ‘RESOLVE’ this crisis means squat.
They can not control the market forces. Believe nothing.

Garth – When is your book due for release?

#120 dd on 11.11.08 at 2:46 am

Government spending
China = $580
US $750+ look for more

Bank Rates going to be cut again

…. the governments are doing all they can to push inflation. Will it work?

Will China turn into spenders?

#121 dd on 11.11.08 at 3:09 am

Canada’s housing sector is A O K. Don’t laugh … these are experts….


#122 thriller on 11.11.08 at 4:12 am

I think Garth is joking. Otherwise, Garth has become paranoical with his posts and requres a medical assistance. Hey, any doctors out there? Calgary Rip Off, you are a medic. Please help a sick man.

#123 Ruhh on 11.11.08 at 4:24 am

Funny… I was very skeptical at first and laughed at this whole blog. Now after reading some of the comments and following a few links I’m admittedly closer to falling off the other side of the fencepost with Garth. I’ve spent a good few hours of my day reading and checking out some great sites and educating myself about how the economy works, it’s history and our history. I’m still no expert but I’m feeling a lot more empowered than I did a few hours ago.

I realize this isn’t even about real estate anymore but about the future of the economic system itself.

I still have hope this won’t go all MAD-MAX style or anything but I do think I’ll start doing more to prepare for some tough times ahead. About 8 years ago I was a much bigger anti-capitalism activist and was convinced of a collapse in infinite growth capitalism to happen in the next 10 years. In recent years I’ve become progressively jaded that positive change will ever willingly happen and was right for doing so. It needs to get worse before it gets better. Now I just can’t wait. DIE dirty money DIE!

#124 JoJo on 11.11.08 at 5:26 am

You went too far about depression even worst than Great Depression and WW II.
First in US will see hiper-inflation as a last goverment chance to bust economy.
So I’m possitive will be Hiper-Inflationary Depression.
Why in US is FED interest rate 1% and soon might be 0.25%, And what about Obama’s promisses for Free Health Care in USA and Student Grands.
World Central Banks are not stupid.If you have printing more money than you have more inflation.Period.
Paradox about $ US inrease is that currently 7 times more money supply hold thousand people,only.
And this is temporary,because if they don’t release money than FED must print 1 trillion cash every year,than this
inflation scenario will kill their cash.Secret plan is buy real gold and silver. So after 4 years we’ll have the same household income $75,000, but we’ll paying
$ 75,000 just for food and fuel. In 2012 Gold price
$ 5000/oz, and silver $ 100/oz. One coffee in Tim Hortons $ 10.
Result of future Hiper-Inflation will be simmilar as a Great Depression. But in opposite way. The same scenario during the Great Depression in Germany,or currently in Zimbabwe. Why?
Because 1929-1933 during Great depression $ US was
holding in Golden Stadards, and FED had limmited Gold reserve and limmited money supply,today no Golden Standars and we can see very soon in 2009,
Hiper inflation-high money supply against Fed Gold reserve,
just $ 59,000= 1 Gold/oz.
SO RICH THOUSAND GUYS will buy cheap Gold,Silver and cheap gold stocks and just for couple years their cash will have 10 times more value. After that they will bring to the world economy Golden Standards,again.
In my opinion is current Panic situation- Great Deflation.
From next year Reaction from World Central Banks will be Hiper-Inflation. And After that will be Great Depression.
Every bad recession as 70’s and 80’s Gold Price went to the roof. Even during Great Depression Gold price gained 20%. So where US,Canada, and rest of the world going. Just Deflation? Deflation is a current situation in any economy, but where it will turn this problem to Depresssion,Recession,Hiper-Inflation.
However Gold and Silver are winners.
And $ US will collapse in 2009.
In 2001, the golden production was 2600 tons of gold
and probably in 2009 will be 1890 tons.



#125 Kelowna Gal on 11.11.08 at 5:47 am

To # 54,
In reference to my comment # 40.
I did not mean to offend you by commenting on Jehovah’s Witnesses. It was just a coincidence that, they happened to come to my door, at the same time, as I was reading this blog. One of the questions that they did ask was, am I/and or, my family ready should Armageddon happen? It was a little unnerving, to say the least.

Thank you Garth for sharing your insight with us. As scary as it is to hear some of this information, I believe that it is better than being uninformed.

#126 The Tallyman on 11.11.08 at 7:33 am

Garth, you sure pulled a lot of polyannas out of their foxholes.
Amazing that most put more planning into tomorrows lunch than into emergency preparedness.

Katrina should be a recent reminder that joe citizen is on his own in times of crisis.
Those who are unprepared and unable to convince the “officials/army” that they are fending for themselves will have the “shelter ” to look forward to.

Just common sense to take as much control as possible,
even though it goes against the concept of being a dutiful sheep.

#127 brazer on 11.11.08 at 8:22 am

Homeowners’ new reality: You’re suddenly poorer
Average home values set to drop to below $300,000 threshold


After years of making Canadians feel steadily richer, home ownership is starting to do the opposite.

The average value of a resale home is expected to be $297,600 next year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. Just three months ago, it was forecasting that number would reach $320,200.

While that kind of decline might be a real hit only to buyers who got in at the peak of the market and want to sell in 2009, it captures an emerging trend where values have begun to erode. Homeowners are about to feel poorer even if they aren’t ready to put out a for-sale sign.


not good at all.

#128 timbo on 11.11.08 at 8:22 am

again thanks garth for the book, made me look deeper, don’t have a solution to the onion just trying to peel the onion.

housing bubble for a laugh


ref from calculated risk website… they have woke up to what is happening…

#129 sabb on 11.11.08 at 9:12 am

Thanks for the tinfoil hat alert Garth, whats next digging nuclear bunkers in our backyard, NCBW training tips, and top 5 things people do wrong when cleaning their rifles? With stuff like this you really think you’ll ever get voted back into office?

@ #119 GrandePrairiegirl

Unfortunately what your talking about is on the edge of rediculous. Military units, particularly units that go overseas or trained for UN tours are all trained to deal with public unrest, riots, demonstrations, and non-lethal enforcement. During overseas engagements, all of these skills are used, and all the training for these skills are trained at home. Knowing one of the individuals who just came back from Iraq with his whole battallion, came back because they’ve been there for 24 months, 12 months over their initial deployment length.

Some of the companies running at a zero profit line like you’ve stated are the ones that maintained oil would never go as high as it has/will. They continued manufacturing a complete fleet of heavy vehicles and ignored the growing trend, as seen in the 80’s, for 4 cyl and higher fuel efficient automobilies, this is why they’re failing. Not all automotive companies are doing so poorly, and some have actually done well regardless of the economic situation (companies outside of NA).

Now all that being said, are things bad? There is no denying things are bad and looking worse.

Are things going to look like Mad Max as Garth is supporting by allowing others to state these remarks? Judging from the last century, 2 world wars, countless global conflicts, economic turmoil, and civic unrest that has existed without causing the apocolyptical world people here seem to think will happen, I’d say again, things will get bad, but not to the point where you need to dig a moat around your house.

Another depression possible? Of course, history does repeat itself, and as we’ve seen in this world to date, anything is possible.

As the quote goes: “An individual person is intelligent, reasonable, and compasionate, but as a mob, we’re irrational, fearful, and hateful”

#130 Apocalypse rider on 11.11.08 at 9:14 am

Well, so far I have been following Garth. At the moment he is approaching a point where it’s becoming a parody or masochism. Any moment I am expecting him to tell us “I’m just kidding”.
All right, I am leaving. I will be busy buying canned food, little house in the prairie, some live stock, dog and a gun. Good luck, y’all !

#131 brazer on 11.11.08 at 9:23 am

Housing sales to drop 12% this year, CREA forecasts

We might as well be in a recession because the current economic environment is having the same effect on the housing market, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

“Canadian economic growth is being sideswiped by financial market turmoil, slowing world economic growth and weaker commodity prices,” says Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA. “The question of whether Canada will avoid a technical recession is moot, growth will be slow enough that it will feel like a recession.”

The Ottawa-based group updated its housing forecast for 2008 and 2009 and is now calling for sales to decline by 12% this year from 2007 and then fall by another 3% in 2009.


we’ll continue to see ‘updates’ and they won’t be good.

#132 vg on 11.11.08 at 10:50 am

Sorry for interrapting from the alert discussion… share the anxiety, but here is small house related question though.
Mortgage rates constantly going down quite a while recently. Are there threats the rates will jump up in upcoming one-two years? What economical forces/events/decisions may cause the rates go up? And what are signs they are going up?

#133 kc on 11.11.08 at 11:10 am

103 derrin,

thanks for the wiki, however I will still resort to my library of 15 or so 1930’s books on the shelf. pretty good 5 para summary thou for those not in the loop.

#134 dotava on 11.11.08 at 11:11 am

#82 cassandra on 11.10.08 at 9:48 pm

Excellent post!

#135 POL-CAN on 11.11.08 at 11:14 am

Time for some levity :)

From the comments section of:


While we are on the topic of the credit debacle, allow me to share with you a little light relief on the bailout workings:

Young Chuck moved to Texas and bought a donkey from a farmer for $100. The farmer agreed to deliver the donkey the next day.

The next day the farmer drove up and said, ‘Sorry son, but I have some bad news, the donkey died.’ Chuck replied, ‘Well, then just give me my money back.’ The farmer said, ‘Can’t do that. I went and spent it already.’ Chuck said, ‘Ok, then, just bring me the dead donkey.’ The farmer asked, ‘What ya gonna do with him?’ Chuck said, ‘I’m going to raffle him off.’ The farmer said, ‘You can’t raffle off a dead donkey!’ Chuck said, ‘Sure I can, watch me. I just won’t tell anybody he’s dead.’

A month later, the farmer met up with Chuck and asked, ‘What happened with that dead donkey?’ Chuck said, ‘I raffled him off. I sold 500 tickets at two dollars a piece and made $998.’ The farmer said, ‘Didn’t anyone complain?’ Chuck said, ‘Just the guy who won. So I gave him his two dollars back.’

Chuck now leads the US bank bailout team.

#136 dotava on 11.11.08 at 11:21 am

#84 Disbeliever on 11.10.08 at 9:54 pm

You didn’t get yet that 2000 come from greedy bankers who were afraid that they will loose track of dates (used to calculate interest). I’m still laughing on stupidest think that I heard related to banking – “banks need 5 working days” to clear your check or even cash that you deposit in ATM?!? Just that you know – owner of the money is know every second and that is how they calculate interest – if you like to see how we are robed on daily bases just check your statement/s.

#137 dotava on 11.11.08 at 11:32 am

#94 Kestral on 11.10.08 at 11:10 pm

Japan had a chance to export somewhere we don’t – that option doesn’t exist today since world economy is in turmoil.

#138 Chris L on 11.11.08 at 11:37 am

If this recession is going to last just 3 years then I’m just going to take a long nap. Seriously, I’ve been living like we’ve been in a recession my entire life so it won’t be much different. All my units are fully rented and I collect rent to pay down my mortgage. I spend nothing on consumer goods and I live free as a bird. It was funny to watch everyone else buy into happiness, when I was working on it from the inside out. I don’t need anything but my freedom to be happy. If you do things right, freedom is easy and cheap. Just get yourself a house with an inlaw suite and live mortgage free. After that repeat a second time. Now you have positive cash flow from your first and your second pays your mortgage. Now you are free and of course your tenants are happy because they get a nice cheap place to rent devoid of any real life concerns. So recession, cool. I can wait it out. Depression, well, that will take about 15% more sacrifices, and I’ll be fine. I don’t think things will go that deep, but I pity the fools that think happiness is tied to stuff. It’s tied to freedom, it’s different.

#139 Tony on 11.11.08 at 12:20 pm

i’m starting to think that maybe I’m the greater fool for reading this blog…

#140 kc on 11.11.08 at 12:28 pm

Incase anyone would like an indepth overview of the 29-30 stage of history I have found a good essay that will connect the financial dots from years ago to today’s problems.

Main Causes of the Great Depression


#141 y3maxx on 11.11.08 at 12:42 pm

# 96 Pol-Can

…Mish is the best…he explains “De – Coupling”…why Hyperinflation is not in the cards so soon after this ongoing Deflation…


…Gold & Silver are losing propositions.


…Canada is in the best shape, believe it or not, to all the G7 and probably the rest of the world.

…China is crashing, Europe is already dead meat.


Very interesting times we live in.

#142 Rick on 11.11.08 at 12:52 pm


Too little, too late, but what the heck.

#143 But Wait.. on 11.11.08 at 1:09 pm

I have spent many hours getting up to speed on Fiat Currency, Dollar Hedgemony, National Debts, Oil & Food Reserves, Reserve Currency, Gold Cartel depressing the ounce, Inflation, Deflation and economic collapse. I was able to work myself up enough to buy bags of rice, beans, a nice pair of winter boots, not to mention a big machette and a sleeping bag good for -40C. Almost bought a gun online thinking I didn’t have time go get a liscense. Caution to buying a gun online without a license: Its against the Law! Many Police officers are waiting to entrap you! I also took out a bunch of cash and felt a little embarrassed when i went to redeposit it.

The way I look at, People in Florida haven’t started eating each other yet and many have been financially underwater for the last 1-2 years. Therefore we should have at least 2 years. Plenty of time to get a gun legitimately. Besides, thats also when the electric car will be on the market, surely that will be a great economic stimulus. I plan to get one of those as well, But do we have enough power? Maybe the mass supply of the electric car will cause the entire power infrastructure to collapse.

I could only imagine what life was like living through the Cold War with all that Nuclear anxiety. Wait a minute, there are thousands of Nukes, and Russia is stepping up their influence, and how about China? Israel and the Arabs, What are we to do?

I saw my Doc, he gave an SSRI and all is good. I think many of you should do the same and get a good night sleep. There are many things to Panic About and many people playing and even profiting on the panic. If it ever came down to it you could always eat your wife.

#144 Bottoms_Up on 11.11.08 at 1:09 pm

RE #121 the BNN video

I encourage all to watch it. He starts out saying we’re in a recession, and in this type of recession the housing market does not hold up well….then, for the remainder of the talk discusses how the market is resilient, prices haven’t come off and likely won’t come off too much. Double speak?????

#145 AM on 11.11.08 at 2:04 pm

dd # 121

Sorry. I tried not to, but I had to laugh. These so called experts are still saying things will be OK in BC, mainly due to the ‘asian pacific gateway’ factor and the upcoming olympics. I wonder if you will see the same ‘economists’ spouting off in a year from now with any credibility whatsoever. What’s wrong with just saying that it’s going to get worse before it gets better and by how much depends a lot on the Joe Public consumers. New cars and houses aren’t selling, at least like they used to. It is said that one house construction job creates three spin-off jobs. That sentiment alone makes me wonder how bad it’s really going to get.

#146 Jeff Smith on 11.11.08 at 2:06 pm

Lookie, this is just out on the website: Homeowners will be poorer


#147 Rob on 11.11.08 at 2:35 pm

Irrelevant to the blog, but great blogging fodder … obviously, so I guess it goes up. Got to have something until the next incrementally negative numbers come in and the over-reactions pile in

Next week , UFOs and the rising value of real estate on the moon. Discuss …

#148 brazer on 11.11.08 at 2:39 pm

Canadians to cut holiday spending, survey finds

While most consumers plan to spend about the same as they did last year, 40 per cent plan to spend less, a survey for consulting firm Deloitte & Touche shows. That’s up from 25 per cent a year ago.

In Toronto, the figure is even higher, with 46 per cent saying the would spend less this year, the study released today said.

#149 pbrasseur on 11.11.08 at 3:27 pm

The world economy is more dynamic and more resilient than most of you give it credit for, this is why I don’t accept the depression II Gloom&Doom scenario.

Here is why:

This credit bubble emanates from the arrival of the emerging economies and its millions of new workers into the world economy.

This had the effect of lowering inflation and when inflation is low central banks can inject capital and lower interest rates. That behavior of the central bank went too far and its effects were not kept in check through proper regulations (to the contrary), it created a very large credit bubble that affected particularly (but not exclusively) the RE markets everywhere.

But still you must remember that this mess emerged from something quite positive, sort of a nice problem: The emerging economies.

The development of emerging countries may slow for a while but will continue, especially in Asia. The world economy will continue to expand, that is certain.

In other words the situation is very different form the closed world of the great depression.

#150 My_View on 11.11.08 at 3:39 pm


Thanks for the heads up, I`ll add kevlar to my list. LOL

#151 smwhite on 11.11.08 at 3:45 pm

#95 nonplused,

Mine too! But dang it, I’m really enjoying trying to create some whiskey reserves.

Garth, do you have any tips on setting up a whiskey still?

#152 pjwlk on 11.11.08 at 3:49 pm

KC #56: Excellent post! I once saw a play based on that book “Ten lost Years” and it echoed all of the stories my father told me about when he was growing up in Saskatchewan during the depression. People these days have no idea… I remember him asking me once if I had ever gone a full day without food, which I have not. I then asked him how long he went without food for – his answer was 3 days. That really put things into perspective for me. I knew at that moment that all of the times I thought I was hard done by while I grew up, were nothing compared to what the people of his time lived through. There was no Welfare back then and if you didn’t work – you didn’t eat.

#153 Rob on 11.11.08 at 4:38 pm

shame, but I have to ask, has this blog jumped the shark?

#154 Bottoms_Up on 11.11.08 at 4:40 pm

Canada’s in a recession (but it can’t happen here!)


#155 My_View on 11.11.08 at 5:00 pm

Governments want to fix this problem, its simple. Wages must increase.

#156 POL-CAN on 11.11.08 at 5:13 pm

#139 y3maxx

Actually…. Mish thinks that the decoupling theory is bunk :)


There are only two currencies doing well right now…
US $ due to de-leveraging by everyone, and the Yen due to the carry-trade…

All countries that export prefer to have a lower currency to increase their competative advantage…

China for excample has held their currency low enough to piss off the USA PTB for years now….

There is no fundamental reason why the BRIC countries are getting killed except for one: de-leveraging. All that foreign investment money is leaving in order to cover exposures. The trouble in India, Pakistan, Russia, Brazil etc. is the direct result of that money escaping.

As for the US $…. My take on it from reading many points of view is that the $ is dead 6 to 9 months from now. As in the USA will go bk as soon as other countries stop buying their debt. At that point hyper-inflation is the only way out but the result is the same i.e. a worthless $. Until that happens deflation is the name of the game…..

#157 POL-CAN on 11.11.08 at 5:15 pm

Ooopppssss… That should have read….

There are only two currencies doing well right now…
US $ due to being the “reserve”/”senior” currency and hence de-leveraging by everyone into US $, and the Yen due to the carry-trade…

#158 kail on 11.11.08 at 5:27 pm

“Early reaction of some readers indicates a belief I am predicting a depression. Not so fast. What I am doing above is giving some guidance in case a deflationary cycle occurs”

No, you’re providing advice on how to survive a depression. To wit:

“As I write my new book I have been asked for some pointers on surviving a depression. Here are a few”

Also, I’m a little unclear as to why anyone would ask someone who hasn’t lived through a depression for advice on how to survive through one.

#159 squidly77 on 11.11.08 at 5:32 pm

laws only work while the majority obide by them


#160 brazer on 11.11.08 at 7:07 pm

Forecaster predicts 100,000 Canadian jobs will be lost to recession

OTTAWA – Canada has fallen into a recession that is likely to result in about 100,000 lost jobs over the next few months, according to forecasting firm Global Insight.

In a forecast to be officially released Wednesday, Global Insight says the Canadian economy will suffer two consecutive quarters of negative growth – the technical definition of a recession – starting in the last three months of this year.

And it won’t be a close call.


the times, they are a changin’ ….

#161 y3maxx on 11.11.08 at 8:31 pm

#155 Pol Can

“”Looking ahead, it is quite possible that if all pegs were removed and the Renmimbi allowed to freely float, that the Renmimbi (Yuan), not the US dollar would crash. Certainly the pound could crash (I think that is likely), and the EU might even break up.”” (Arab currencies would crash as well)

…Mish postulates the other currencies will crash well in advance of the US Dollar….

—Peter Schiff Hugely Right, Enormously Wrong as Hard Landing Hits China—…


(Like Garth…Pol and I should write a book too….just need to read up on Roubini and Mish…maybe throw in a couple of risque pic’s…bingo…a best seller)

#162 M9U on 11.11.08 at 8:34 pm

I think we are headed for something worse than the 1930’s depression. Back then, people had work ethics and the rudimentary skills to survive, i.e. gardening, canning food, sewing, recycling, etc. What we are about to experiment is going to be pretty ugly.

We started stockpiling food about a year ago. Everytime we went to the groceries, we earmarked about $5.00 for the food pantry. This added up so we now have a good supply of pasta, canned food, cereals, as well as soap, toilet paper, and everything we need and use.

We got a German Shepherd 4 years ago. Although she’s a sweetheart, she’s a good guard dog and can scare people away if need be. I hope the depression doesn’t last a decade because she’ll be too old by then…and I just won’t replace her. German shepherds lose their hair too much and are high maintenance dogs.

Living in a medium-sized community in Quebec near a big city is good for us. I wouldn’t want to live in an isolated place or too far from neighbors, that is too inviting for criminals of any sort.

I think Garth is right about the squirrel thing…as repugnant as it looks now, we may see the day where some desperate people are going to be in such dire straits that they will do anything for a squirrel.


As crime soars, so will church attendance. People will revert to religion. Food banks and soup kitchens will proliferate. Children will do their best to help, like having a paper route or pick up bottles.

Garth is right. Prepare yourself. Better to be safe than sorry. And if that depression scenario doesn’t materialize, all this food supply won’t go to waste.

#163 Bailing in B.C. on 11.11.08 at 9:57 pm

#123 Ruhh

Welcome to the dark side!
Want to start a commune?

#164 THECOMINGDEPRESSION on 11.11.08 at 10:33 pm

A website I have followed for many years has described in DETAIL that exact info. Garth are you a member of timebomb2000?

#165 THECOMINGDEPRESSION on 11.11.08 at 10:43 pm

Info on CHINA? My large manufacturer of whom I deal with has stated that many Chinese manufacturers will be closed for 2 months! his partial EXACT email:
“By the way,what abou the economic in your country at present . Many chinese companies are closed in the 2mothes because of the economic stability”

#166 midas on 11.11.08 at 10:57 pm

A picture is worth a 1000 words or more 700 billion in this case.


#167 FC.LA on 11.11.08 at 11:25 pm

#152 Rob

Yuo won’t see that until the last vestige of value content dissipates. It’s still a good way to track housing price decreases, or house owners’ denial which seems to becoming popular now.

‘Automatic Earth’ is getting a little repetitive, though.

#168 70s guy on 11.11.08 at 11:38 pm

I think back to the recessions of the 80s and 90s and to a lesser extent, 2001 and realize, contrary to what I may have latter thought, those tough times were good times. No shit. Those years hardened my resolve to succeed, pushing me in directions I had never thought possible. In short, I learned to take risk.

I’m 46 and life is good. Winding down one career and looking for the next. My father had 3. It’s out there. I know it. So buy gold and raise chickens if that makes you feel better, but this is the wrong time to stick your head in the mud and give up. Tough times make for great innovation, and opportunities always follow.

#169 Kilt on 11.11.08 at 11:58 pm

Can you provide a reference to the Dow going to 400.

I can see the S&P 500 going to 400, but not the Dow. Dow 6000 seems more reasonable.

#170 prairiegopher on 11.12.08 at 12:41 am

Well, here is my input on this matter. I did not live through the depression years, but my parents did. Before they died they spoke to me many times about what it was like. They lived on the prairies where it was a dustbowl. Their clothes were either hand-me-downs or home made, some from gunny sacks that sugar came in. Of course they didn’t have running water, so they used an out house. Luckily sears sent out catalogues and oranges came in wrappers. Toilet paper was expensive. Food was either grown or if that wasn’t available there was always wild game or pigeons or rabbits. Someone talked about “stills”. You bet, some for money others because store bought liqour was out of reach. Everyone pooled together. No one really had anythiing, but what was available had to be shared. Any staples were bought with food stamps if you qualified.

Will we ever get this desperate again? I hope not! I saw the affect this had on my parents and people of their generation. Do I think people have gone over board spending and borrowing? Absolutely! The coming slow down may serve as a reminder of how vulnerable we really are. My two cents worth!

#171 bulls eye on 11.12.08 at 12:47 am

The main point being in all of this is to stay out of debt – any debt. Most of us on this blog are too young to fully understand the implication of the events that are to unfold. Debt does funny things to people, they become desperate. Your right Garth as deflation occurs – this is not the generation of Greater Fools that I want to be left with.

#172 nonplused on 11.12.08 at 12:50 am

Nobody knows their in a depression until the government tells them so to explain why they need to raise taxes. It’s just living with less! But there’s never a bad excuse to stockpile whisky! If you stockpile enough, the depression will be over before you even realized something was amiss! Just ask Charlie!

#173 squidly77 on 11.12.08 at 2:01 am

A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall
T O now down 25.9% crack smoke or the big smoke ?
toronto specuvestors just got bitch slapped

#174 nonplused on 11.12.08 at 2:34 am

Hey I just had a revelation after some of my whisky stockpile mysteriously disappeared…

GM wants a bailout. Ford: bailout. Magna: Please Harper bail out the Canadian one!!!! The 40 year old “Paris” can’t get a job! Eww!! Chrysler would like one too but now their privately owned and only public companies get public money.

But bailouts are all paid for by the tax payers.

So we taxpayers are going to give billions to big auto to build cars nobody can buy. Still factories, money down the rat hole, questionable benefits.

Here is “nonplused” auto bailout package:

Rather than give the auto companies a ton of my tax dollars to not build cars I can’t afford, give me $30,000 to go buy a car. That’s right, take my debt burden and give it to me! I have to pay it. Give me money to buy a car if I got to pay for it anyway. A bailout for everybody. The auto companies get to build cars, I get to buy one, auto emplyees keep their jobs, I cruise chicks, everyone wins and I pay the same over the life of thedebt obligation!

Bailout the housing industry? Give me a big tax deduction if I buy a house, no mortgage required! Buy a $400,000 house? Depreciated it like other capital assets at 10%/year (or some number). $40,000 a year right off my income! Lovely.

Airlines? No problemo. Anyone who flies gets a government rebate of 50%!

It’s brilliant! We have to pay for it anyway through the taxes later down the road, but at least we get to enjoy the services otherwise not rendered.

Spread the word people, spread the word.

#175 nonplused on 11.12.08 at 2:56 am

You know, the more I think about how my whisky hording experiment isn’t succeeding, the more disappointed I am.

But my bailout epiphany, I’m calling it the “nonplused bailout”, makes more and more sense the later it gets.

Adam Smith had it all right all those years ago. The wealth of nations consists of to parts: capital, and labour. Now, old AS didn’t think capital was money. Oh no, he thought of money the same way as Garth thinks of gold, and incidentally so did AS. They are currency.

Capital, my friends, is improved land, equipment, stocks, and in farming retained seeds and harvest inventory. A reproducing cow is capital. A cattle futures is not. A chainsaw is capital. A hammer is capital.

A person who can raise a crop, raise a cow, cut a tree, or hammer a nail, is labour. That is wealth. Money is just a medium of exchange.

So in a bailout, we give money to zombie companies to not produce capital, just consume currency. How does that help? I could use a new truck. Or even if I couldn’t, I’d rather have one if I have to pay for it through taxes due to bailouts anyway.

The bailouts are misdirected. If we must borrow to “save the economy”, then all borrowed money should go straight to the tax payers so they can purchase capital goods from the otherwise defunct manufactures. So we get something from our money.

I think I now understand what causes a depression. If taxpayer dollars in deficit are used to bail out zombie companies but produce no useful services, only bad things lie ahead. If those tax payer dollars are used to “lighten the load” on taxpayers, so that they buy the things they need to generate wealth, the road ahead brightens.

Spread the word people. The current strategy of bailing out zombie companies on the backs of the taxpayer will make zombies of us all.

#176 $fromA$ia on 11.12.08 at 3:03 am

Garth with all the doom and gloom hackers hacking you for being doom and gloomy I am still surprised non of them have offered you a Watchtower Magazine!

#177 $fromA$ia on 11.12.08 at 3:06 am

Garth, not only squirels but have you tried Gerbals???

The Gerbals can actually serve a dual purpose for you!


#178 charliegosurf on 11.12.08 at 4:42 am

15 out of 15, yes im a A+ student….

got a suggestion mr professor, can i trade the bike for a chainsaw?? and i dont want the one from crap tire or sucky mart…..i love too walk and to ride too but the flea market is the ultimate store.

seem like the ride of the Valkirye is playin full bore around here..wonder if you guys will head up that river too find your destiny …

really good objective post around, impressivelly constuctive and some too funny reactions of the usuals naysayers.lol

yeah, maybe evrything will be just fine afterall. never before, the world had to face the challenge of this time, so nobody can really predicts what can happen. This planet in an emancipation era, and the more people will freed themselves from mental slavery, the more chance WE CAN win.

but i sadly doubt i will graduated this school of doom, the GANG$ wont let this go on, the system profits them too much, the matrix of mainstream living cant be shut down, it can only be destroyed…

anyhow like the picture says, “theres no way like the american way”, the planet is in lust for it more than ever. lol, that way or off the fkn hway… lol, the odds are on, poker time.

#179 patriotz on 11.12.08 at 5:54 am

“Governments want to fix this problem, its simple. Wages must increase.”

But that means that working people will get a bigger share of the wealth. Are you a Commie or something? :-)

#180 brazer on 11.12.08 at 9:22 am

Home values drop for 7th straight quarter

Over the past 12 months, 30.2 percent of homes sold were sold for a loss, up from 23.7 percent at the end of the second quarter. In 17 markets — 14 of them in California — more than half of homes sold in the past year were sold for a loss, the reports showed.

The percentage of homeowners with negative equity remained fairly steady from the second to the third quarter, however, as more foreclosures were completed and as median down payments rose in 61 markets. One in seven, or 14.3 percent, of all homeowners across the country has negative equity, and of homeowners who bought in the last five years, almost one-third, or 29.5 percent, are ‘under water’, the reports showed.

#181 brazer on 11.12.08 at 9:25 am

Crisis wipes out Bay Street jobs

More fallout from the financial crisis hit Bay Street yesterday after mutual fund giant CI Financial Income Fund confirmed plans to eliminate up to 60 jobs after reporting an 18 per cent year-over-year decline in its third-quarter profit.

Toronto-based CI Financial is among a slew of financial-services firms that have announced layoffs in recent months as the industry grapples with the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

#182 dotava on 11.12.08 at 10:03 am

#128 sabb on 11.11.08 at 9:12 am

But they wasn’t deployed on mainland since 1812?!?

#183 Bill-Muskoka (Not Anymore) on 11.12.08 at 10:03 am


Thought I would mosey over to this blog. HOLY! ARMAGEDDON Bikeman!!! Red type font and all!

Well, there is always the M.A.S.H. solution ‘Suicide is painless!’

Seriously, today’s people will be hard pressed to survive if things come to such a state. People today, who have no prior experience, will be, literally, incapable of coping psychologically with such a state.

Imagine all the X-Box, Nintindo, and game players who have been made to go Cold Turkey, why their life will be meaningless.

Not saying you are wrong, because you are not, and this is how most Third World people live daily, but the majority of people have simply lost such skills.

Condo and apartment dwellers will not have any soil to grow anything, other than a few ‘potted’ plants, and we all know what plant they will be growing, eh?

Oh well, my parents made it through the Great Depression, I made it through six decades of silliness caused by greedy dorks and government. Welcome to the Brave New World. THX-1138 perhaps? Soylent Green? Let’s do get serious about recycling!

#184 dotava on 11.12.08 at 10:08 am

#157 kail on 11.11.08 at 5:27 pm

Problem is that many of gals/guys (as you) don’t wont to hear.

#185 Andrew toronto on 11.12.08 at 11:44 am

I’ll have to agree with Garth that we are only in the early stages.. If we look at history and compare charts from 1929 , ansd well as Japan in 1990.. what you will find is in both cases there was a lot of cheap credit and then a bust occured .. what followed in the charts was

Dow Jones Industrial average from late November 1929 to January 1930. the overall drop from the high in September 1929 to the low in November 1929 was approx. 47%. This was over a 2-1/2 month time frame, a stock market crash.

the Japanese stock market showing the decline around 1986, a stock market crash. the overall drop was 48percent . The difference is that this drop in the Japanese stock market occurred over a 9 month period.
we know what happened after that ..10year recession

now lets look at the dow
the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing the current decline from 2007 thru the beginning of October 2008. there is the same approx. decline in the 40+% it’s range
It’s actually 47percent from 14,000 to 7500 .

what happened after is a rebound a wave 4 up .. IN 1929 and in Japan which can last anywhere from 6months to 2 years back then, but seeing we have baby boomers starting to retire next year we are looking at mid year next year .. before things start to head back down again ..

From what I’am reading and correct me if this does not make sense the huge stimulas will start to take effect next year and we will start to see interest rates go up to pay for that freshed minted batch of money .. as we will see higher mortage rates ..not to mention oil will be back up .. that downtrend will drop the dow lower than the recent lows and make for a bigger crash in 2010.. The thing this time the u.s FED won’t be able to borrow anymore because even they have a limit on how much they can spend ..

We truely could be heading towards a japanese type recession that will last many years ..

#186 sabb on 11.12.08 at 12:32 pm

#181 dotava on 11.12.08 at 10:03 am

Wouldn’t have anything to do with an American election having an African American running for president for the first time in history would it?

#187 sabb on 11.12.08 at 12:33 pm

#181 dotava on 11.12.08 at 10:03 am

RE: Troops where deployed on OCT 12th.

#188 pjwlk on 11.12.08 at 2:20 pm

“nonplused” auto bailout package: Brilliant…simply brilliant!

#189 Can't wait! on 11.12.08 at 3:28 pm

Personally, I’m scoping ambush positions off the 401 so I can pick off unsuspecting caravans as they come by and take their gas and supplies. :)

Garth is probably trying to self-justify all the money he wasted while preparing for Y2K. I didn’t know he owned an RV though…

#190 trout on 11.12.08 at 3:54 pm

Way way WAY ahead of you.
Some of us saw this coming decades ago, my garden is in and my powder is dry.
But if you move into my neighbourhood with a Rottweiller, I’ll walk into your house with a shotgun.

#191 Marc on 11.12.08 at 6:04 pm

We have a squirral that is ripping apart our back deck. The thing is trying to sotre nuts under it. I am about to shoot the thing. I do not intend to eat it. If you want it it is yours Garth. Not sure if mailing animal carcuses is even allowed, but if I send it to Garth taxadermy I might be able to skirt the rules. Can you let me know the mailing address?

Of course. Send it c/o J.Flaherty, House of Commons, Ottawa K1A 0A6. — Garth

#192 Time to buckle down | Loonie Journal on 11.12.08 at 7:03 pm

[…] endless barrage of bad news, it it certainly not a bad idea to prepare for the worst. In a blog post from a couple of days ago, Turner provided some suggestions to people who had asked him how to […]

#193 Glen on 11.12.08 at 9:05 pm

This makes me wonder if the person I have been taking some advice from over the past 5-6 years is in fact himself….gone squirrly…

A bit over the top I think Garth.

#194 Can't Handle the Truth on 11.12.08 at 10:17 pm

Few other smart people have said the same thing. Prepare yourself. Protect your family.

The implications in this environment could easily lead us into the catastrophe Garth is mentioning. It’s a point well taken.

For all the Gold lovers, you may enjoy this website by Jim Sinclair, he has been saying this for a while now. Protect yourself and your family of what’s coming.

#195 timbo on 11.12.08 at 11:35 pm

and one question directed at you garth

if the us fed has to borrow heavily to feed this, do not the rates go up for that right. Is this not short term lending? so rolling over and reborrowing over and over again creates more risk, hence heavier interest rates to get someone to finance the debt. and every day your borrowing even more? this looks ugly.

if this is the gist then sooner or later the lenders will ask for too high a rate to take the debt and I presume that is when the dollar will debase,collapse.

sorry if this is too simple a conjecture just trying to understand history in the making.

Yes. This is why I have been saying we will battle deflation now for a couple of years, and then will face a huge bout of inflation as a direct consequence of government actions. — Garth

#196 Kate on 11.13.08 at 2:42 pm

Garth, I love your blog but this is too harsh. I’ve lived through the destruction of the Soviet Union and believe me, it hadn’t been that bad as what you are describing. We didn’t have electricity from time to time and the water was there only 3 hours twice a day, money were scarce but I managed to live through it without rifles and chickens. Here we are talking about economic crisis, not communism fall. It wont be that bad.

#197 anonymous on 11.14.08 at 2:17 am

I’ll still be able to run my Xbox 360, surround sound system, and TV off the generator, right? Will the telephones still work? How else am I going to book my manicures and facials when the depression comes? I hear all that sandy wind is really bad for the skin.

Hello? Conspiricy nuts? Gold bugs? Survivalist crazies? Anyone?

#198 Samantha on 11.14.08 at 9:59 am

Interesting reactions. Emergency preparedness is what you do before, not after, an emergency situation arises.

For those who pooh-pooh this idea, consider the following:

Do you have vehicle insurance, extended medical or home/apartment insurance?

Do you get regular medical and dental check-ups?

Do you save money in an emergency fund?

Do you have a box of band-aids in your medicine cabinet?

If you answered yes to all or any of these questions, then you do practice emergency preparedness.

I hope that I never have to use some of the preparations that I have in place. However, like home insurance, even if my water purification system is only used once, then it will have more than paid for itself. You can survive 3 days without water. People can be surrounded by water in a disaster, but unable to drink it, so you might want to learn about the various methods of creating potable water.

Some of my preparedness items, such as food, are used on a regular basis and the benefits are a healthier diet with the surplus during stock rotation going to local food banks. This is also a cost effective and the dollars I spend on food items support local, regional and national producers.

Even city dwellers can find ways to practice emergency preparedness. It takes time to learn and design a plan that works for your environment and resources. The time to devote to this planning and preparation is now. The “should haves, could haves, would haves” are much tougher to eat than squirrel.

#199 T0d Maffin on 11.14.08 at 3:19 pm

Jesus, you’re not kidding about being scary (per your tweet).

Oh, and nice to “meet” you. How come I haven’t visited your blog before?! It’s great! :-)


#200 what could happen between 2009-2012 « My Late 20’s on 11.14.08 at 3:32 pm

[…] 14, 2008 Squirrel alert — Greater Fool – The Troubled Future Some people will tell you on this blog that you are crazy and have lost your mind for warning them […]

#201 Jon on 11.14.08 at 5:13 pm

recession != Mad Max

#202 Noz on 11.14.08 at 5:17 pm

The man’s entitled to his opinion…as are the rest of you drunken asses.

#203 AAa on 11.15.08 at 12:46 pm

Garth. You forgot

#16) Start looking for caves and start eating raw meat!!!

#204 Common Sense on 11.16.08 at 12:21 pm

From Garth Turner the guy who during the tech bubble told everyone to borrow against their homes from banks to buy mutual funds ! He even wrote a book about it which made him wealthy enough to write this blog with his spare time. Garths credentials ..former politician, mutual fund company “sales” person.
Enjoy the profits from your next book Mr Flavour of the day! Advice :Check out Grath’s bio/track record before you do something stupid !

Actually my book, “The Strategy” forecast a dismal long-term future for real estate, which led me to suggest equity be removed and diversified into finacial assets – so long as they were of high quality, managed by a professional and yielding enough income to pay the tax-deductible interest on the loan. That actually turned out quite well. BTW, I never took a dollar in salary or commission from any mutual fund company. Furthermore, my 1995 book, “2015” forecast a real estate meltdown, which seems to be coming a little sooner than anticipated, but for the same reasons. As for being a former politician, well, what can I say? Better to be in there fighting for something than biting ankles in the aisle. Say, what’s that in your teeth? — Garth