Gobsmacked in Singapore

 alberta.jpg  Should we worry about Alberta?

 

oak-bay.JPG

No job, no income, and a $2M house in Oak Bay

Dear Mr. Turner
I am writing to you with regard to my dream coming into fruition. I have resided in South East Asia since 1990. However, I have always maintained that I would return to my home and native land.

Flirtations with Ontario real estate in the past has netted me small gains. A Muskoka cottage purchased with a friend and a west end Toronto house, purchased on the birth of my first born, were both sold in 2004.

I parlayed the profits into a purchase over the internet of my Oak Bay dream house.

Leased since 2004, I now have 75% equity on a 6000 square foot house purchased for $1,005,000 and is now assessed by the tax authority at $1,500,000. Local realtors assure me of a sale price of $2,500,000. Realistically, probably $2,000,000, if I am lucky.

The problem with the dream becoming a reality is the fact that I have zero savings, three children and a job that will end in a couple years. Upon my return to Canada, I will know no one and be looking for work. The first month in the house will be glorious. However, then everything deteriorates.

A mortgage. Young children. No job.

Can I hold my breath until 2020 until the last child is out of the house, and I sell the glorious house in the village? Do I sell now, knowing that I will have cash in hand, but no firm grounding in Canada that I have promised my family. I guess I should not have had a painting of the house commissioned to remind us of this dream?

I am at a loss. Do I pull the covers over my head and continue to dream of this fairy tale life, of do I throw cold water on my face and get out now?

By the way, Singapore freehold housing is ridiculous. Rental rates are 10K to 30K p/mo.

The tenants have no rights. To purchase a property (citizens or Permanent residents only) you must pony up with approximately $3 million Singapore dollars for something very average with no land. Enjoy the cheap prices on the west coast. They are a bargain compared with Singapore.
Limbo in Asia

I’m sure many people reading your letter will wonder what drugs you are on. I do. This is the most whiney, self-centred, absurd and narcissistic note the Greater Fool web site has received to date. Congratulations. You win three words of free advice: Sell the sucker.

Clearly the last thing you want is $2 million worth of house that you cannot afford, and may likely not be able to sell once you get back to Canada, where luxury house prices are falling fast and will be hit even harder as the next two years unfold.

Let’s see, you have made money on this property – possibly up to a million dollars. You have no work lined up to give you the tens of thousands a year you’ll need just for property taxes. The Canadian housing market it currently at the top of its cycle, primed for decline, and you wonder what to do?

Why not move your family out of that Singapore madness which is messing with your head and tell them about the (affordable) Shangri-La to which they are headed, Sudbury!

HI GARTH;
JUST READ YOUR BOOK AND AM WONDERING ABOUT SMALLER CITIES IN CANADA, PARTICULARLY WINNIPEG. I OWN A CONDO IN SOUTH WINNIPEG AND AM THINKING OF SELLING AND RENTING FOR AWILE. THE END RESULT IS TO RENT FOR A FEW YEARS AND EVENTUALLY BUY A SMALL HOUSE. DO YOU THINK PRICES IN WINNIPEG WILL BE DOWN IN A FEW YEARS OR AT LEAST NO BIDDING WARS SO I CAN AFFORD A HOUSE?
THANKS HERB.

Yeah, Herb, Winnipeg prices will be coming down. The average home in that city has appreciated 117% over the last decade, above the national norm. This is also vastly above the amount by which family incomes have grown, which means the prairie jewel – where kids used to burn worthless downtown houses just for fun – now has serious affordability problems.

Have no idea what you bought the condo for, or what it’s worth. But you can do the math. Sell if (a) you can realize a tax-free capital gain after real estate commission and (b) renting increases your cash flow and allows you to save more than you would as a homeowner. If those things are the case, then sell and rent and buy back in a couple of years hence. You’ll get more house, guaranteed.

Oh yeah, and STOP YELLING.

Hi
I am financial advisor in the Okanagan Valley. I was involved in flipping for a few years but decided to get out about a year ago as I could see the market was peaking. I have two questions for you. First is; what is your take on the okanagan valley’s near term future? Mine is that it is a bubble as well but all of the realtors I have talked with say we are not going to experience the same issues here as it has different fundamentals than say Vancouver. I say they are full of S…..T but I welcome your opinion. Second question. Can I use some of your articles on my website?

Thanks
Paul

You are quite right about the Okanagan, despite the prevailing common wisdom. Most property owners and realtors will tell you people always lust after Kelowna and Vernon and Peachland and such places because of the climate and the no-surprises lifestyle (except for the odd voracious fire).

True enough, and there are millions of snow-weary Boomers back east who would be only too happy to leave Mississauga for a better life. The trouble is – as millions of upper middle-class American homeowners have found – buyers can’t buy until they first sell. Most Boomers have almost all of their net worth trapped inside real estate, which is growing increasingly illiquid. As a financial advisor, you know exactly what I am speaking about. This situation will grow only more acute as areas like the 905-belt in Ontario suffer a dearth of buyers. It’s already happening now, but only as a shadow of what is likely to come. Without those Mississauga refugees, what greater fools are Kelowna residents going to find?

As for anything on this site, go for it. And invite me to come and talk to your clients.

34 comments ↓

#1 Dom-GTA on 04.09.08 at 2:47 pm

Garth,

I am starting to really annoy my family and friends, I have been saying that prices are ridiculous in the GTA for a year now and the only responses I get are “hahahaha” you will be priced out of the market if you don’t buy now. Everyone I speak to seems convinced that the party is far from over, in fact I was just informed by my much more successful sibling that he is in the process of selling his oakville house and will net a 500K gain in just 2 years and it will take less than 12 weeks to sell…I told him good luck and I hope you get your price, but just as an FYI there are 236 properties for sale on MLS in your region and range and most of them look at least as nice as your house.

Basically I was called stupid and told I don’t know what I am talking about.

Any chance you think you might be wrong about this crash? Is there anything in Canada that is happening that might be justifying this?

I also noticed that “sold” signs are starting to come up on most of the properties that are listing in my area (Aurora)

Thanks again for the contrarian view and I hope for my credibility that you (and I) are on target….

#2 westcoastrenter on 04.09.08 at 3:49 pm

Hi Garth. I live in Victoria, and have felt for some time that the market was poised to implode. Most do not feel like me.

Yesterday our library strike ended and I asked about your book – well you should not be surprised to learn that it is not even ‘on order’ in our library system! ‘hear no evil, see no evil’ I guess!

#3 Sphinx on 04.09.08 at 4:38 pm

Canada’s crash seems delayed by little less than a year compared to the US, it’s just start cresting now…
http://bp0.blogger.com/_SfxDExxUukY/R-he5fB56aI/AAAAAAAAASk/JiIYUiK914o/s1600-h/nar_rid6.JPG?

Dom-GTA,
Your sibling won’t have a problem finding a greaterfool to unload his Oakville property to, that market is insane, homes fetching 350-450k in 2003 (when it was already overpriced) are now asking 700k-1.3M!! I believe it’s the bubbliest market west of Toronto, and I also believe it’ll crash in the next 2 yrs. What’s contradicting, owners of these properties are just good paid employees, but not a rich crowd.

Sphinx.

#4 Chandresh Patel on 04.09.08 at 7:47 pm

Garth,

I have been reading your blog for a couple of weeks now.I agree with you on most part. Can you give me some info on the RE market in Red Deer, Alberta. It seems to me that unlike Calgary and Edmonton , market is fairly stable.

I have a good job paying 80K .I am 34 with 2 kids.Should I wait some more or buy now ??

Presently renting a condo at 950 + hydro p.m.

#5 Another Albertan on 04.09.08 at 7:58 pm

Dom,

The best advice is simply to keep your mouth shut. Your bills don’t come to their address and vice-versa. People only want to hear words that re-affirm their points of view. Contrarians are naturally unpopular, especially when it comes to opinions on values or large expenditures.

Bulls make money and bears make money, but little piggies get slaughtered. Talk is cheap.

If the common fact is that average person has 80% of their net worth in real estate, the contrarian opinion should be to diversify in the opposite direction into other asset classes. The rule applies in broad markets and it is always possible that your brother is an exception to this rule at this time. Past performance is NOT an accurate indicator of future performance in a dynamic marketplace where conditions can change (and rapidly, at that). Who is to say that he doesn’t lose the 500k in speculative mining stocks? Or make a 10x return? Or does he take his 500k and invest it in ultra-conservative, low-return products “because he doesn’t want to lose it”? It’s faster to zero than it is to hero.

I’ve dealt with many pieces of derogatory commentary from friends and colleagues in the past few years along the same lines of what you’re hearing. My simple comeback to “I’ve heard that Calgary real estate is going to appreciate at 45% for the next 15 years” (or 10 or 5 years) is “Oh, so what do you think your $250k condo will be worth in X years?”

The answers are invariably “oh, somewhere between 500 and 750k, I think”. Bzzt! Wrong! 250k at 45% simply and consistently compounded for 5, 10 and 15 years is 1.6M, 10.3M and 65.8M. For a crappy 550 square foot shoebox. Wow. At that rate, a $3 loaf of bread will be $19, $123 and $790. Then, for some reason, people start getting angry with me because they don’t know squat about geometric progressions. Even taking the growth rate and dividing by 3 gives you 500k, 1M and 2M. People love rose-coloured glasses and hate when you scratch them.

But if you really want to get someone’s hackles up, ask this question which refers back to everyone’s worst experiences in high school, college or university with long-form answer where you guess or copy an answer, have no explanation and get 0/10 and a comment in red ink – “Will you please show your work?” If this is so simple, then any reasonably-successful “entrepreneur” shouldn’t shy away from giving you a few tangible hints and pointers. I’ve never gotten more than a 10-second sound bite – and certainly nothing quantitative – before the person turns and runs in the opposite direction.

The world’s largest companies hire some of the smartest people to try to manage consistent growth every year. They throw oodles of resources at the problem and still have incredible challenges. Yet we’re to be convinced that nary a can of fresh paint for curb appeal will still be able to appreciate a naturally-deteriorating asset at multiples of the published inflation rate ad infinitum? One household against the world?

Just tune out the static ’cause that’s all that it is. The numbers don’t – and never – lie when viewed over an appropriate time frame.

#6 Another Albertan on 04.09.08 at 7:58 pm

Oh yeah… and someone else take the soap box now ;-)

#7 WetCoaster on 04.10.08 at 12:09 am

Thank you, Garth, for that spot-on remark to the first poster…

This is the most whiney, self-centred, absurd and narcissistic note the Greater Fool web site has received to date.

I found the story so surrealistic, I thought the guy was joking. But no, apparently, there are people like this.

#8 Dom-GTA on 04.10.08 at 7:34 am

Dear Albertan, Sphinx nice to see I am not completely alone.

As for the wealth-being high paid employees- comment. I couldn’t agree more, but the bottom line is if you make 500K + a year as an employee or almost lose everything running your own business then the employee is far better off.

I should know since I have gone from entrepreneur to reasonably well paid employee of one of the world’s largest companies…I certainly feel “richer” getting a salary then I did when I sunk everything into my start up business and almost lost it all.

I will have to learn to keep my mouth shut though, as I certainly don’t want to be seen as wishing bad luck on anyone. The truth of the matter is probably that I am a little envious. My property only doubled in 5 years and I certainly am not going to walk away with 500K.

Seeing the news reports linked on this site it seems that we are still seeing a lot of bullish behaviour…

#9 vultur on 04.10.08 at 12:00 pm

Except that they’re not really ‘news’ reports but instead they are little unsubstantiated blurbs that Darth the Doomsdayer managed to piece together in his spare time when he wasn’t busy trying to topple the government.

Another Albertan- your post is so riddled with cliches that it’s virtually unreadable. No one believes that real estate can appreciate 20% yearly for long periods of time- if you believe that then it’s really you who needs to get your head out of the clouds.

#10 Zulfiqar Haider on 04.10.08 at 1:03 pm

Hi Garth,

I am a first time home buyer planning to buy in Upper Yonge village in Richmond Hill, where in the last few months, I have seen listings disappearing in less than a week, and quite often houses selling above asking price. The neigbourhood has one of Province’s top schools and close to Viva / GO. However, with a housing slowdown inevitable, not sure if this is going to affect all cities including Richmond Hill, and all home sizes and neighbourhoods alike. I am looking for a direction on when to buy and keep asking myself a question: would I be a greater fool if I buy today, or would I miss the boat if I do not buy today.
I ask you for the advice.

Why would you buy a house in a demand pocket, and pay more? The GTA has six million paople and is 150 km wide, and there are scads of places where listings are now overwhelming buyers. All areas will be impacted, but at differing rates. Shop more widely. — Garth

#11 vultur on 04.10.08 at 1:32 pm

Darth Fool censored me again. Let it be know that your hero/zero is scared of opposing beliefs.

Sound like you know as much about blogs and moderated comments as you do about real estate. All comments here sit in a queue until I review them, and post. I have not censored any of your useless contributions. — Garth

#12 Dom-GTA on 04.10.08 at 2:13 pm

Garth, I am thinking of buying in Niagara and Niagara on the lake, speaking to agents it seems to have moved into a buyer’s market. (unlike many high demand areas)

Any idea on when the time to pull the trigger would be? How long would you wait before thinking it’s time to buy?

Trying to time an exact purchase in real estate, as with stocks, is not a winning strategy. If you don’t need to buy now, then don’t. Both prices and mortgage rates will be a lower a year from now. — Garth

#13 Outlaw on 04.10.08 at 2:57 pm

Garth i must contradict with you because historically interest rates and real estate prices move in opposite directions. A drop in interest rates usually raises the affordability index and contributes to short term price appreciation. In my opinion prices will be steady until BoC starts raising rates in mid 2009, causing affordability to significantly decrease. Currently home buyers have the luxury of getting a sub 5% variable intrest mortgage, unfortunately come 2009 it will no longer be possible.

There is no such rule. Rates are coming down now to try and stave off global recession, since the banking system is being hollowed out with $1 trillion in real estate-related losses. If you think this wretched excess is going to be behind us in 12 months, I have a lovely 350-square-foot Vancouver condo with your name on it for $614,000. — Garth

#14 Outlaw on 04.10.08 at 3:42 pm

Garth
You must have misunderstood me. What i meant by my comment is that prices should be steady until rates are raised in about a years time. After that all hell will break loose due to the fact that people who currently hold open variable mortgages at rates lower than 5% will have to lock in (at 6/7%) or face an increasing variable rate.

The prices will come down, no qustions asked. Any idea when the course will start reversing?

#15 Drachen on 04.10.08 at 3:54 pm

“Winnipeg prices will be coming down. The average home in that city has appreciated 117% over the last decade, above the national norm.”

But they’re running out of land! Of course prices are going up!

Or something.

Never mind me, just a Vancouverite who’s sick of the hype.

#16 SMWhite on 04.10.08 at 4:43 pm

Dom,

Pick up a copy of the “Intelligent Investor” by “Benjamin Graham”, he was Mr. Buffet’s professor(and not Jimmy) and one of his first points is the average person “buying” at market highs and selling at the lows because of the psychological appeal. It sounds very illogical but when you consider the same type of person that is scoffing you for not jumping into the market at its peaks, they are most likely the same type of personality that was buying up tech stocks at their highs.

There is safety in numbers, or so some feel… Although that safety is waning in Canadian real estate.

The best line out of the mouth of a very humble but successful man can be applied to investing and speculating, “Skate to where the puck is going, not to where its been”. Ponder that for a moment.

Its commical how some on this blog say Garth is crying the sky is falling and everything is going to implode, making light of what are concrete facts, yet a whole industry has been trying to scare people into buying real estate “because they might not get into the market”, ever? Boo!

So if everyone after 2008 “can’t” get into the market, who is going to buy all these McMansions? How will you turn a profit? Please oh please tell me, pretty please with sugar on top?

The immigrants right, the people we as a country won’t validate their credentials for them to do the jobs they’ve been trained for, the guys making under $20 an hour? They’re going to smack down 500K on a house?

A market is defined as commercial activity where goods and services are bought and sold with supply and demand determining price. The piggies(I borrowed that from you Albertan) only look at the factors in the market that benefit their own interest and forget to be object, the get blinded by greed, but without the piggies you don’t get the extreme swings up and down that allow the smart money to profit from their short-sightedness.

Buy into weakness, sell into strength, very full people can time the markets down to the day but its getting easier to time them down to the quarter. You can be alert to where the market will be one and two years down the road and thus consistently be a winner, instead of going for the “big” score, missing and being a big loser”.

Dom, you seem to be lucky enough to be objective, don’t question that little voice in the back of your head telling you that something ain’t right…

That voice is the principal trait of value/contrarian investing. As stated by Albertan, many very highly educated people make bad market calls because they lack the contrarian view.

S

#17 tulip-mania on 04.10.08 at 5:57 pm

Reporting from Vancouver,B.C. the “bubbliest” city in the world, and all I can say is:

Tick Tock, Tick Tock

#18 anxious renter on 04.10.08 at 6:35 pm

Garth,

Great book, quick read and to the point. I am addicted to this site/topic, obvisiouly I am a renter in the T.O. HghPk area. Home prices in this area are insane.

Here`s the millenium, spend, spend and when youre finshed off paying for that. Spend some more, cause hell you have equity, “richer than you think”.

Im 32 yrs old and thanks to an older friend/co worker when I was 21 yrs old. He open my eyes to economics and I have saved enough money for the average house deposit 20%. But I`m not buying.

My freinds and family think I`m nuts for renting and sometimes I think Im being too pesimestic. I have friends who just recently bought homes with nothing down and registered the house under one persons name, even combined they make less than 80 thousand. No subprime here eh! Garth, how can this still be happening? I thought lenders would be tighter…

#19 vultur on 04.10.08 at 6:50 pm

Outlaw, why are you asking Darth questions to which he has no answer?

He’s here to grandstand his silly little book that no one cares about, not to talk real estate- something I know nothing about eh Darth?

The 5 year bond rate is around 3% so with 25% down a prime borrower should be able to lock in today for well under 4.5%. That’s a very low cost of capital. My tip (and trust me, I have way more experience in this business than your local MP) is to buy something that you can afford and lock-in your mortgage long term to be safe. Don’t worry so much about prices will be tomorrow or next year. Focus on finding a home for you and your family that fits your budget and in 10 years you’ll come out with a 5% annual return that’s tax free and whatever mortgage principal you’ve amortized.

Could be worse- you could be living in one of Darth’s slums, right?

#20 vultur on 04.10.08 at 8:36 pm

>>Clearly the last thing you want is $2 million worth of house that you cannot afford, and may likely not be able to sell once you get back to Canada, where luxury house prices are falling fast and will be hit even harder as the next two years unfold.<<

Show some evidence of luxury house prices across Canada ‘falling fast’, Darth Liar. Assuming you can’t, quit the scaremongering pal. Your credibility here is worse than your political track record!

Do you disagree with my advice for the sad millionaire from Singapore? — Garth

#21 Outlaw on 04.10.08 at 8:53 pm

Vultur it all depends on how the dice will roll. Knowing that rates are about to decrease by approximately 100-150 you should go variable and have sub 4% rate. Now mid 2009 when rates will be going back up, locking up will be your only option. The problem is the credit crunch. So far fixed mortgage rates havent moved, maybe they will, maybe not. Either way you are going to lock in an automatically your rate will practically double. I just dont think people realize what is coming. Affordability at 4% vs 7% are two totally different scenarios. Adding that half of mortgages are 40 years and many are less than 5% down, people are already stretched. My guess is downwards but not just yet.

#22 tulip-mania on 04.10.08 at 9:20 pm

Thanks Vulture, some of us are just not as smart as you.

We got brainwashed in university by the economics and history faculty, and now we believe that housing bubbles and other manias have come and gone.

I guess we will never learn that RE always goes up and that we are running out of land, and we better get in before we are forever priced out.

What happened in the UK, Japan, USA, and Canada before can’t happen again, because it’s different this time right?

#23 vultur on 04.11.08 at 8:01 am

tulip,

Here are some comments:

“We got brainwashed in university by the economics and history faculty, and now we believe that housing bubbles and other manias have come and gone.”

I have a finance degree too. I’m not sure what your point is beyond broadly based circular rhetoric.

“I guess we will never learn that RE always goes up and that we are running out of land, and we better get in before we are forever priced out.”

I think these absurd axioms are even more foolish than you do. If you knew me you would never here me utter some ignorant statements.

“What happened in the UK, Japan, USA, and Canada before can’t happen again, because it’s different this time right?”

I believe it was Mark Twain who said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it is rhymes.

My point is that you need to consider every situation independently. Ontario has very strong positive immigration, very low unemployment, and actually relative moderate pricing for new condo projects. At $380-$400 per square at average I believe that prices are about 50% less than Vancouver or Calgary. To me that doesn’t necessarily signify a bubble, but the amount of new construction (23,000 units sold) is somewhat disturbing and there are definitely pockets of heavy investor driven projects that I believe will experience a fall in values soon.

My long-winded point is that the notion that the Canadian housing market is a giant bubble waiting to burst is probably a bit of an unfair characterization for a country that has witnessed very strong economic growth, low unemployment, and numerous budget surpluses for years running. On top of that, the Canadian housing market did not appreciate anywhere near as quickly as the US housing market since 2001 so I believe the downside is probably pretty limited overall.

I’m not a housing economist and certainly not a real estate agent, just a private guy with opinions on the market.

#24 vultur on 04.11.08 at 8:08 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080410.RREALESTATE10/TPStory/Business

Here’s a very timely article for you guys that frames the issue in far better terms than I ever could.

When reading it, keep in mind that the IMF has no vested interest in the Canadian housing market.

#25 m. on 04.11.08 at 8:59 am

Good article, Vultur!

Let me see if I understood correctly:
“Canada and Austria were the only two of 17 countries included in the study in which house prices appeared to be at or lower than where they should have been at the end of the period from 1997 to 2007”

So the increase in prices has been around 3X faster than the increase in income, but the prices are still lower than expected. It would be interesting to know what IMF thinks a normal rate of increase is? 4X faster than incomes? 5X? Maybe 10X?

The reporter seems to be happy to swallow all this, hook, line and sinker. No questions about record low affordability or the alarming use of 40 year amortization by first time buyers desperate to get in.

#26 Dom-GTA on 04.11.08 at 10:46 am

Vultur,

I just read the link and article you posted and all I can say is that Garth is obviously bang on. His book talks about a flatening and depreciation in the the rising value of houses.

When the article says that the US was in the same state in 2004, and Canada shouldn’t lend exotically to avoid a downturn, TOO LATE.

This is exactly what those 40 year 0% down mortgages are.

You have exactly validated what we are saying with this link to the G&M article. Austria and Canada are the only 2 holdouts? How long is this going to last? The author said I’d be less worried in TO than Barcelona, does that mean we are going to his a small iceberg vs a large one?

Will prices only drop by 10% vs 30%? Isn’t that bad enough for those who bought 0 down? 10% on 750K (per article) is still 75K, that’s a lot of Flat-screen TV.s and Cars that they will no longer buy because what if it goes down 20% and they can’t refinance the variable rate at 4% but they can get a high risk loan at 8 or 9%?

IMF has no interest in the Canadian Housing Market? What about all the other people quotes? Bankers at our largest Mortgage holders???? NOT a little suspect? Mr. TAL whom I regularly whatch on BNN hasn’t really gotten that much right in the last couple of years….He isn’t dumb but certainly no Oracle. I would take odds that he is off his numbes this time…

Remember emotion and panic have not yet started…if/when it does then all bets are off….

Good luck to All!!!

#27 shoutoutoutout! on 04.11.08 at 11:45 am

Garth, what do you think about the IMF article? If prices stop going up, which they have in Calgary, is this price point the new baseline here?

#28 Carrion on 04.11.08 at 12:31 pm

Vultur,

I looked up the actual IMF report, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/index.htm
and think it’s clear that any conclusions being drawn from it re Canada real estate are based on national averages, which when you look at them aren’t so terribly out of whack with average income, etc — but in certain regions in Canada they certainly are, which I think is the whole point Garth makes.

There will be a correction in those bubble areas and people who got swept up in the irrational exuberance will suffer. And if you’re one of those people, at least you will have your ‘finance degree’ to fall back on (Although from reading your posts, I’m thinking you really meant ‘diploma/certificate’ or ‘read Donald Trump’s book twice’).

#29 SMWhite on 04.11.08 at 1:10 pm

“IF” rates continue to go down so will the dollar against the Amercian. That will drive the price of fuel up and nobody can deny that, that will effect the root of the economy and any goods or services that depend on transportation(which is 99% of them unless we develope a teleportation device) as we’ve seen fuel up 18% year over year. We’re just starting to see the effects as consumers now.

So the Bank of Canada either has us Canadians start paying the price now and raising rates or we can keep punching holes in the ship to keep pace with the US of A’s “wonderful” economy.

Anyway you slice it we’re in a foggy environment and we’re heading into iceberg infested waters.

I presume this is why Garth is being alarmist and I have to agree that there is potential for bad times. I appreciate the views from all angles but the underlying economy is in trouble…

S

#30 Sam on 04.11.08 at 5:14 pm

Vultur,

Your opinions suck. I have heard the same lame statements from many many real estate agents in the past. Not saying you are one of them but you sure do sound like one and I know Garth is not a hot favourite of the RE Agent community.

I think Garth is doing a great service by saving many many innocent families from getting into a big ditch.

P.S: Do you take your morning coffee before you make your comments on this forum ?

#31 SMWhite on 04.11.08 at 8:30 pm

Bob Dugan and his crystal ball are starting to sound like David Lereah from the NAR.

Housing Starts to Fall Slightly in 2008 – OTTAWA, Feb. 4, 2008

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2008/index.cfm

Housing Starts Move Higher in February – OTTAWA, Mar. 10, 2008

Housing Starts Brisk in March – OTTAWA, Apr. 8, 2008

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2008/2008-04-08-0815.cfm

CMHC’s main drivers that real estate is A-OK…

Robust employment levels are going to save the day, just like the USA who also have had record employment levels but yet its not helping their bubble-icious bubble.

Ongoing income gains, you know that 2% corporations and unions are forced to hand out to keep the herd content.

Low interest rates too! We have all the factors that made real estate in the USA such a winner for the little guy.

Starts are up 10% over the records of 2006 and 2007, but no word of all that extra inventory… SHHHHHHHHH!

Pump and dump, pump and dump!

#32 Newguy Vancouver on 04.11.08 at 11:35 pm

Data is in from MLXchange for Greater Vancouver (REBGV). Listings now sit at 14009 at the close of April 11, 2008.

Thats up from 13408 just from last Friday (Apr 4) alone!

It’s starting to happen…

(data courtesy of Paul B)

#33 SMWhite on 04.12.08 at 8:39 am

I’ve gone from a wee black “bear” to a polar “bear” in this real estate market. I’ve also seen the MLXchange in Ottawa, listings are up there as well and lots of arrows pointing down. My real estate friend says things have slowed dramatically for he and his colleagues.

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=189067e4-a57f-4cf0-bdbf-53a402c20c37

To sum that article up, “A soft landing is anticipated”. Thats from the mouths of the geniuses at TD, thats their outlook on Canadian housing market. Ironic that governments can’t claim recession until there is two quarters of negative data, yet the “carnys/back alley fortune tellers” at TD Bank(You know, the bank that had to copy the winning cash-back mortgage from the US to keep profits going) are willing to claim a “soft and fluffy landing” in real estate already. Thats great, even more speculation from the banks. I guess they really can’t say everything is going to sh#t and be alarmist, who knows what the herd would do.

Talk about history rhyming, its rhyming alright, its Tupac back from the dead signing the US real estate rap of months gone by here in Canada.

Of the five stages, is there any doubt we’ve hit denial?

Lets get a real estates shills perspective,

No, right?

I have yet seen a response from a real estate bull that has used facts or statistics to prove their point, its always the big three common blurbs, high immigration, high employment and increasing salaries. I mean like, facts and statistics are for accountants, they are just so boring… Like, buy houses cause they like always go up and like there are lots of immigrants coming into Canada and like there are lots of high paying jobs at like Tim Hortons.

Disclaimer: that post is riddled with sarcasm and poking fun at the asinine verbal diariah coming out of the mouths of sales people in the banking and real estate sectors.

#34 Another Albertan on 04.12.08 at 12:39 pm

SMW:

You echo my earlier point – “Please show your work.” It doesn’t happen. Because they can’t.