Could this be it?

Besides legitimizing intolerance, objectifying women, praising dictators and dissing Mr. Socks, here’s another thing Trump fans can think their hero for – an escalation in the cost of money. On Wednesday the Fed grew a pair and joined the president in manspreading.

American interest rates ticked higher. It was the second increase this year and the 6th in the last 18 months. The central bank also indicated there are two more hikes likely in 2018 and another three in 2019. That’s five more ahead, adding 50% to the basic funds rate.

So much for all those world-beating macroeconomists in the steerage section of this blog who said, nah, never gonna happen. Rising rates are fake news. The government won’t let it happen.

Well, it happened. And it’s not over yet. The Bank of Canada will follow suit on July 11th (the current market odds of a jump in its rate are about 75%), and it’s expected there will be another in the autumn. The mortgage stress test rate, now at 5.34%, will rise to almost 5.9% by Christmas. Next year it will cross 6%. So it would be a swell idea not to make an offer on any piece of property until at least next summer.

Why is this happening even when Trump is trying hard to start a global trade war which could have significant economic consequences?

Because the Fed obviously believes he won’t do it, or will fail, or be handcuffed by Mueller, or shackled by Congress. And meanwhile the American economy is shifting into overdrive, which will stoke inflation and cries out for an even hand on the tiller. That would be the paw of Jerome Powell, the new boss at the world’s most influential central bank, who has turned aggressive.

“The committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the committee’s symmetric 2 per cent objective over the medium term,” he said, curling his lip and tensing his abs under the $3,000 Armani. The old language about waiting for data, being cautious and accommodative is gone. We have clearly turned a corner.

US unemployment has cratered to 3.8%, the lowest reading since 1969, when my cuffs were wider than my waist and folks were singing “Sugar, Sugar.” More than 1,000,000 people have found new jobs in the first six months of 2018. Wages are rising (in both the US and Canada) and the Fed now expects the jobless rate to keeping dropping – which means statistical full employment. In fact there are 6.7 million job openings in the States right now, more than all the unemployed people put together.

Economic growth is forecast to be steady and acceptable in the 2% range, with a big boost in economic activity of $1.5 trillion from the Trumpian tax cut – which slashed the corporate rate and helped push equity markets higher. Yes, the deficit and national debt will be bloating as a result, but in the short-term it’s all rockets.

Well, our guys will not resist the upward trajectory of money, unless the Canadian economy is T-boned by Trump’s new trade tariffs, new levies on the auto industry or the potential demise of NAFTA. It would have to be a serious downturn to keep the Bank of Canada from pacing the Fed, since the failure to do so would hit the loonie hard, increasing the cost of imports and stoking harmful inflation.

But in either scenario – four to six more rate hikes in the next 18 months, or a crapped-out economy in the midst of a trade war – real estate does badly. People without balance or diversification, who have shoveled all their net worth into one asset and leveraged it up are now at greater danger. Already sales in most major markets are falling rapidly and prices have started to react. Buyers are retreating. They smell risk. It’s pretty obvious houses will cost less in a year than they do now.

Here’s young Trevor to explain it in his own words:

A few posts ago you had talked about the 905 market north of Toronto and how it had basically cratered.  I decided to have a look for myself to see what the carnage looked like.  The observations were bang on.   I was almost ready to scoop up a townhome in Aurora at a big discount …. until the trade war began.  I decided not to pursue it anymore because the trade war poses significant risks to the economy (specifically the auto industry)….I remember previous posts where you had mentioned that a serious blow to the Canadian economy could turn the soft landing into something much worse. The auto tariffs could lead to massive job losses…… Could this be it?  Or am I being overly cautious?

See what I mean? The market is slowing fast. Listings are swelling. Lots of choice plus desperate sellers. Prices in many areas are tumbling. And yet buyers back away – which will simply accentuate the decline as people worry about Trump and as interest rates notch higher.

Those who said rates would stay low were wrong. Those who said buyers would rush in if prices fell 10% were nuts. This will be a long ride.

194 comments ↓

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 06.13.18 at 4:45 pm

TRUE OR FALSE (searching for a grain of truth in the unsubstantiated claims of Vancouver Island agents)

“Victoria’s tech industry grew and our city permanently became a techie magnet in 2015. Other Canadian cities have experienced little to no tech industry growth compared to Victoria. Every techie wants to live here!

I always laugh when I hear people refer the San Francisco Bay area as Silicone Valley. Like they have a stronger tech economy than we do. Now that Victoria has become what it has in the tech world they should start referring to San Francisco as Victoria South!

With all of the money that has been flooding into our city since 2015 as a result of our growing tech industry we barely have any mortgage debt. And we don’t need CMHC!

Clearly Victoria changed forever in 2015 when an unlimited number of high-paying tech jobs suddenly and permanently appeared in our city. Indeed 2015 was the year that the guarantee of stronger demand for local real estate year after year became the new normal in the land of milk and honey.”

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Single family home sales in Victoria:

May
2018: 346*
2017: 467
2016: 641
2015: 512
(Source: Victoria’s R/E board)

Those numbers don’t show that Victoria “suddenly became a techie magnet” in 2015 as a result of the sudden establishment of a permanent “massive pipeline of tech jobs and techies” to “permanently guarantee stronger demand” for local real estate “year after year“.

#2 NotLegalAdvice on 06.13.18 at 4:46 pm

First!

#3 MWerk on 06.13.18 at 4:50 pm

Nah, the cost of money is already high, my credit card charges 12.99 a year…

#4 Party on Garth on 06.13.18 at 4:56 pm

READ: Maxime Bernier’s Book Chapter On Supply Management

https://www.spencerfernando.com/2018/06/12/read-maxime-berniers-book-chapter-on-supply-management/

#5 R Vanzo on 06.13.18 at 4:58 pm

“Besides legitimizing intolerance, objectifying women, praising dictators and dissing Mr. Socks, here’s another thing Trump fans can think their hero for – an escalation in the cost of money.”

That’s awesome news! Higher interest rates means higher returns on secure assets.

Actually loan costs rise first. Deposit rates will lag, and be less. Not so awesome. – Garth

#6 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 06.13.18 at 4:59 pm

As I was watching the Fed decision and analyst comments live as it was happening I wanted to share with you one thought:

As interest rates rise, the headwinds of inflation will grow, decreasing the forward momentum of stock appreciation.

While NO recession is on the radar, slowing market appreciation and increasing rates will eventually cause the market to correct. At this time, the Fed will go from Hawkish to Neutral to Dovish yet again.

Right now we are Neutral. When we move from Neutral to Hawkish should be soon. Let’s hope interest rates rise enough to pad the fall and leave our Feds with enough ammo to QE, lower rates and successful pad a recession and job losses from doing too much damage.

Fiscal policy, fascinating eh?

#7 Up Island Observer on 06.13.18 at 4:59 pm

Starting to hear about low ball offers showing up in our quiet part of the world “where everyone wants to live”. “Never happen here”, “It’s different here”.

Until it isn’t. Buckle up.

#8 Axehead on 06.13.18 at 5:00 pm

“two more hikes likely in 2019 and another three in 2019”

Hey Garth, I think you meant for one of those years to be 2018, maybe.

Duh. – Garth

#9 Mark Baum on 06.13.18 at 5:04 pm

Garth are you retracting your opinion to vultch real estate in the 905 from a few weeks ago – is your advice now to keep waiting (if possible) to buy at a lower cost basis in the 905 a year or two from now?

Of course not, for those who need to buy. – Garth

#10 jess on 06.13.18 at 5:07 pm

But what do they do with all that poo?

mega-sized farms that are shipping milk here from more than 1,000 miles away. Even with transportation costs, some dairy processing plants have switched from buying milk locally to getting it from Texas.
The Texas farms can produce milk cheaper, partly because they buy cattle feed in large quantities grown on thousands of acres. They also can afford to ship milk longer distances, which is important because there aren’t that many people living around cities like Amarillo.

It doesn’t disclose names of farms and processing plants but says six organic dairy farms in Texas produced 481.4 million pounds of milk in 2016, about 23% more than all of Wisconsin’s 453 organic dairy farms combined.

Some Texas dairies have more than 10,000 cows, while Wisconsin’s herd size for organics is often fewer than 100 cows per farm. In average sales, Texas boasts $27.4 million per farm while Wisconsin is just under $278,000, according to USDA data.

Farm size is a “continuing source of friction within the organic dairy industry,” Dairy Market News says.

wis. dairy farmers

Wisconsin lost 500 dairy farms in 2017, and about 150 have quit milking cows so far this year, putting the total number of milk-cow herds at around 7,600 — down 20% from five years ago.
Small dairy farms have been disappearing from the rural landscape for decades, but the problem has been compounded by a sharp decline in farm-milk prices that’s now in its third year and has spread across the country.

Farm cooperatives have urged members to think twice about adding more cows to their operations when the marketplace is awash in milk. Some have even offered incentives for members to quit farming altogether.

Federal court data shows the Western District of Wisconsin had the highest number of Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies in the nation in 2017, and that’s only a glimpse into the problem since Chapter 12 is a relatively rare tool used in bankruptcies.

Farmers say the downturn is worse than one they experienced in 2009 because it’s lasted longer and their costs are higher now. Many dairy operations are drowning in debt; and in some cases, they have a half-million dollars in unpaid bills.

“You need a good year to make up for what you lost,” Kurt said, figuring that he’s used up about $150,000 in his farm equity to weather this downturn.

“It’s at the point where it would be reckless for me to keep going and burn through everything I have worked for the last 18 years,” he added.

Schlintz and others said the stress level for farmers and their families is punishing.

“Farmer suicide numbers are going up now too,” Peck said. “Every time the phone rings I am worried about another farm going bankrupt or someone feeling suicidal.”

https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/2018/04/13/dairy-crisis-crushes-farmers-wisconsins-rural-identity-jeopardy/511881002/

#11 token on 06.13.18 at 5:12 pm

Garth…how long did you expect the USA to tolerate their large trade deficits? The party was going to have to stop at some point. Blaming Trump doesn’t change reality.

Canada is not America’s problem when it comes to trade imbalances. Do some research. You will look less foolish. – Garth

#12 Peter McLean on 06.13.18 at 5:17 pm

Maybe someone should tell all the idiot politicians to go jump off a cliff. We’d all be much better off without them.

#13 M-F on 06.13.18 at 5:23 pm

Keep in mind that as interest rates rise, the +2% added for the stress test can, and probably will be, reduced to 1.5% or 1% and then 0% as interest rates rise and appear to be approaching a medium term top.

This will probably happen overnight and surprise everyone. Bears will howl that the government is propping up the market. But remember that while the government doesn’t want to see runaway prices, they also don’t want to see a terrible hard landing. So if they can soften the landing by reducing the +2% to +1% or 0% that is what they are going to do.

The stress test has zero to do with the real estate market. It is in place to protect the integrity of bank mortgage portfolios with adequate borrower credit quality. – Garth

#14 NoName on 06.13.18 at 5:23 pm

And meanwhile the American economy is shifting into overdrive, which will stoke inflation and cries out for an even hand on the tiller. -GT

https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/US-CPI-2018-05-all-items.png

#15 neo on 06.13.18 at 5:24 pm

Garth,

All that yet the 10 year can’t even creep over 3%….Hmmmmm

#16 NoName on 06.13.18 at 5:27 pm

interesting read

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/06/12/dollars-purchasing-power-drops-2-9-in-may-from-year-ago/

#17 Short Lived. on 06.13.18 at 5:31 pm

Well, that was short-lived:

“This confirms the index stabilization following the downward trend that prevailed over the second half of 2017.” — Marc Pinsonneault of B.o.C.

https://housepriceindex.ca/2018/06/the-stabilization-of-home-prices-confirmed-in-may/

#18 Mark Baum on 06.13.18 at 5:32 pm

#9 Mark Baum on 06.13.18 at 5:04 pm
Garth are you retracting your opinion to vultch real estate in the 905 from a few weeks ago – is your advice now to keep waiting (if possible) to buy at a lower cost basis in the 905 a year or two from now?

Of course not, for those who need to buy. – Garth

Garth, and for those who can afford to rent / wait ;)?

#19 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 06.13.18 at 5:33 pm

Happy Housing Crash you dirty SHYSTERS. :-)

#20 BobC on 06.13.18 at 5:37 pm

As someone that’s debt free I’ve been punished for it. The indebted has been rewarded for at least 8 years.
I welcome increased interest rates. I keep a 6 figure income by making short term small business loans. Higher the interest rates the more I make.
Bring it on.

#21 ANON on 06.13.18 at 5:38 pm

This will be a long ride,

I’m willing to bet this will be a an incredibly fast ride, just the beginning will/is starting start slow-ish…

#22 Jungle on 06.13.18 at 5:49 pm

A bit much of hyperbole, in most areas (ex york region ) there is no sign of crash, or unbalanced market.

Condos in 416 are still strong and raising, detach is balanced and just over 3 months of inventory.

If you expect worse in the future, or a poor performance going forward, it’s very possible.

But there is no sign of dire in the GTA right, except York Region.

You have to expect that York region simply got too far ahead anyway, Markham detach was almost 2-300k more than the average in Toronto during peek which is strange for a suburb to overshoot a major city centre.

#23 Fake News Again on 06.13.18 at 5:58 pm

You people aint seen nothing yet. in the next 2 to 3 years the bond market is going to implode and rates will be in the teens again……

#24 Briana on 06.13.18 at 6:00 pm

@#21 ANON
I agree, it is going to be a fast ride. This is a classic housing bubble and we are entering the cliff very soon followed by a major recession. Look for widespread job losses over the next couple of years.

@ Garth
I am sure Trump and his administration have crunched the numbers too on the trade imbalance with Canada ;-) obviously, the numbers aren’t in America’s favour or it would not be an issue for him. He is trying to boost economic growth in the US and profits for the US, who cares about Canada. It is up to our politicians to take steps to strengthen Canada’s economy rather than be so dependent on the US and China!!!

#25 Large on 06.13.18 at 6:09 pm

So let me get this straight…The millenials got sucked into the market top basically from Nov -Jan of this year. They got sucked into the real estate top.. I bet all they got left now is weed stocks before being fully decimated. Once weed is legal and they gotta look at earnings those will tank as well. Not looking good for this generation.

#26 Wait There on 06.13.18 at 6:10 pm

Well I read Maxime’s chapter on supply management and all I can say is that the press has NOT commented on what its effects could be on Canadians. They are supporting the government on retaining the supply management system. Hypocrites, when products and general labor has to fall under the supplu demand balance. Even BEFORE Trump made comments on T2, they were keeping their mouth shut. When I saw Ford say he supported supply management, you could deep down he did not but had to because the outside Toronto votes put him where he is. We are so screwed when we think we can duck under the blanket and be safe. We are simply kicking the can down the road till we cannot afford it then everyone suffers more.
If the USA milk is so bad then why do we feed people farmed salmon.
MSM and the politicians are all hypocrites. T2 is keeping daddy’s legacy and should just tell the truth.

#27 Nonplused on 06.13.18 at 6:18 pm

Even if house prices fell 10%, I am not sure who would suddenly be able to afford them.

The economics of owning a house in a place like Vancouver or Toronto depend on them appreciating 10% per year for most people. That is the only way to justify the gigantic carrying costs of the house. Once you get over 5 times price to income ratio there is simply no other way to build wealth unless you are already so rich it doesn’t matter.

The most reliable way to build wealth is to spend less than you earn and invest the difference. This can’t be done if your house is sucking up too much of your paycheck.

I see the potential here for a severe contraction in the Canadian economy if the housing bubble bursts, even if we don’t lose the auto sector to a trade war. IMHO, the housing bubble has been responsible for an enormous amount of economic activity either directly through HELOC’s or indirectly as sellers cashed in and realized huge gains. But all this wealth is illusionary. Nothing real is created when a house doubles in price except the amount of loans that can be written against it. If wages don’t keep pace, eventually that cycle has to stop.

I see no reason to be optimistic about the Canadian economy right now. If Trump gets his way and launches a major trade war against Canada the only sector of the economy that will not be affected is the oil patch and it’s already in the sewer. Combine that with a potentially messy unwind of the housing bubble and there could be sever carnage. The Canadian economy is simply not set up right now to replace the US as our major trading partner. What are we going to do, send the cars to Europe and Japan? Not too likely. Those areas are already net exporters and for the most part build better cars.

Whether you love or hate Trump, it will be a major mistake to get in a pissing match with him. And make no mistake, shutting down the Canadian auto industry and moving the jobs south will be deeply popular with many politicians at the US state level, whether they otherwise support Trump or not. So as horrific as a trade war sounds to an economist, not so much to a politician. They will aggressively campaign to have as many of those auto sector jobs moved to their own state as the as they can. Think tax incentives and the whole lot. They’ll make it as easy as possible. With the Canadian operations already highly taxed and facing rising taxes and now carbon taxes the incentive to move is already pretty high. Add in a tariff and tax incentives and you may as well shoot that horse.

This is what happens when you elect ideologues.

#28 Kelsey on 06.13.18 at 6:24 pm

In an interesting take that attempts to look at the impact of QE, Wu and Xia modeled that the overall monetary conditions were reflective of a rate of -2.99% in 2014, which has now converged back to the Fed Funds rate. By this logic the tightening cycle began in 2014 and has increased nearly 5% (vs. 1.75%) so we should be deep into the tightening cycle with recession around the corner. The flattening yield curve would support this hypothesis.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/shadow_rate.aspx?panel=1

#29 Just In on 06.13.18 at 6:24 pm

When a slow moving asset, like RE, changes direction down, it does not stop until it becomes generally
repugnant. That’s why the impatience to get in, or back in, detected here is a great indicator it’s still a long way out.
We need a deep economy downturn to cure the wannabes of their lust. It seems we’ll get it, and it’s gonna be scary. As the level of the bottom, years out too.
Don’t worry, be happy.

#30 will on 06.13.18 at 6:24 pm

Thank Mr Socks for a rate increase? I thought the BoC was supposed to be independent.

#31 bdwy sktrn on 06.13.18 at 6:25 pm

Yet so many Canadians are crossing the border, in order to buy dairy and poultry products across the border…

Fools. It’s not worth the gas. – Garth
………………….

It is worth it if you also fill up your tank while you are down there.

And your time is worthless. Fools. – Garth
————-
Another great retort, Garth.
So many fools brave 2 hour line-ups and about 30 minute drives, just to save a few bucks on gas.
What is adage about fools and their money?

————————
it sounds like you guys are doing it wrong….

buy a cottage on the other side, stay the weekend, then come home with savings of;

smokes 65
cigars 50
“other” tobacco 50
scotch 40
amazon po box stuff 30

x 2 people thats $470 in savings before gas and cheese

The duty free store takes about one minute longer than a 7-11, and with a nexus more times than not the border crossing takes less time than a single red light.

go usa!

hell, the savings on smokes alone pay for all the property tax and water bill for an acreage 5 minutes from white rock.

#32 Howard on 06.13.18 at 6:25 pm

“It’s pretty obvious houses will cost less in a year than they do now.”

———————————————

Oh is it now?

You said that if Ford wins, the bottom is in (in Ontario).

Or will houses cost less…except in Ontario where they’ll cost more?

Read harder. – Garth

#33 Howard on 06.13.18 at 6:29 pm

#7 jess on 06.13.18 at 5:07 pm

Milk is vile. Do people actually still drink that crap, or even worse serve it to their children?

Unless you’re an infant bovine, wise to avoid it.

#34 bdwy sktrn on 06.13.18 at 6:29 pm

If the USA milk is so bad then why do we feed people farmed salmon.
——————–
too many ignorant canadians out lately, esp on the usa file.

i have been buying milk/dairy in the usa for the past couple years – costco/major and minor grocery chains/gas stations/dairy outlet/drugstore etc etc.

i have yet to see a single drop of gbh milk. every single jug from all brands is clearly labelled gbh-free.
usually cheese too.

#35 Shawn on 06.13.18 at 6:32 pm

Nasdaq to 10000.

Who would have thought…?

#36 Triplenet on 06.13.18 at 6:45 pm

#285 Really?
yesterday..
Trump is uneducated ?
University of Pennsylvania – Wharton School.
Warren Buffet, The Donald, my Dad, Me

#37 Greg on 06.13.18 at 6:52 pm

Will someone please take that ‘Happy Housing Crash Everyone!’ guy to lunch and buy him a happy meal or something? He’s one angry dude. Every day, same old gripe.
Maybe an ice cream after if he behaves.

#38 jess on 06.13.18 at 6:52 pm

supply management (:bs

https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/violation-tracker

Discover Where Corporations are Getting Taxpayer Assistance Across the United States
===================
SUBSIDY TRACKER is the first national search engine for economic development subsidies and other forms of government financial assistance to business.

https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/subsidy-tracker

=========
b

“PFI is the equivalent of taking out a payday loan to pay for building and running our public services,” Creasy said. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s July 2017 fiscal risks report described the use of PFI to take the cost of infrastructure projects off the nation’s balance sheets as an example of a “fiscal illusion”.

============

Public sector pension funds put millions in tax haven-linked PFIs
The Guardian-Jun. 7, 2018
Whitfield analysed the ownership and investments of 47 Scottish projects … Some Equitix funds are specific to SFT projects; others cover PFI …
Offshore links to Scottish private finance deals revealed
International-The Ferret-Jun. 8, 2018
Story image for PFI scotland from CommonSpace
Revealed: Carillion collapse hits taxpayer for £148m, as coalition …
CommonSpace-Jun. 7, 2018
Through deals such as the Private Finance Initiative [PFI], or the Scottish Government’s so-called Non-Profit Distribution Model, the company ..
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jun/08/public-sector-pension-funds-put-millions-in-tax-haven-linked-pfis

#39 45north on 06.13.18 at 6:59 pm

jess: Wisconsin lost 500 dairy farms in 2017, and about 150 have quit milking cows so far this year, putting the total number of milk-cow herds at around 7,600 — down 20% from five years ago.
Small dairy farms have been disappearing from the rural landscape for decades, but the problem has been compounded by a sharp decline in farm-milk prices that’s now in its third year and has spread across the country.

I used to work for Agriculture Canada. A man at the Canadian Dairy Commission told me that in the US, dairy producers were slaughtering their herds because there was no market for their milk. This practice is simply mismanagement.

If Canada were to get rid of supply management, you would see the kind of mismanagement you see in the US. Small farms have been disappearing in Canada too but they would disappear faster.

#40 TheDood on 06.13.18 at 7:00 pm

#7 Up Island Observer on 06.13.18 at 4:59 pm
Starting to hear about low ball offers showing up in our quiet part of the world “where everyone wants to live”. “Never happen here”, “It’s different here”.

Until it isn’t. Buckle up.
____________________________________

It appears low ball offers are showing up in the Lower Mainland as well.

Older couple living across the street put their empty nest – 2800 sq ft, 2008 build – up for sale a couple months back asking 950. Spoke to him a week after recent open house and says the only reasonable offer was more than 100K less than ask.

The ‘for sale’ regularly disappears and then reappears days later – I assume the realtor is doing this purposely to ensure ‘days listed’ is a low number?

#41 Trumpie on 06.13.18 at 7:03 pm

Obama’s Legacy?

OR Trump’s Genius?

US unemployment has cratered to 3.8%, the lowest reading since 1969, when my cuffs were wider than my waist and folks were singing “Sugar, Sugar.” More than 1,000,000 people have found new jobs in the first six months of 2018. Wages are rising (in both the US and Canada) and the Fed now expects the jobless rate to keeping dropping – which means statistical full employment

#42 Trump Personified on 06.13.18 at 7:06 pm

A liar begins with making falsehood appear like truth, and ends with making truth itself appear like falsehood.
– William Shenstone – He said it best!

#43 What can I say about that? on 06.13.18 at 7:10 pm

The Donald is definitely NOT politically correct. Too bad. We Canadians have every right to feel good about having Trudeau leading us. That feeling will intensify when we can finally have a legal spliff.

#44 What can I say about that? on 06.13.18 at 7:15 pm

It’s funny that rates have risen sooo, sooo very slowly and sooo, sooo little. Yet people are wringing their hands in worry. It will be even funnier when they retreat back down and the people take on even more stupendous debt. The fact is that the elite want inflation to be high to eat away at the debt. They will use rates to accomplish that. They just want to make it look like they are fighting inflation.

Mortgages a year ago were 2%, no stress test. Now the hurdle is 5.3%. That is significant. – Garth

#45 Adrian on 06.13.18 at 7:17 pm

“Debt-financed asset purchases are thus fundamentally a Ponzi activity: though initially the income stream from a debt-financed speculative purchase may exceed the debt-service costs, the increase in debt isn’t matched by any increase in productive capacity. The trend, as debt to GDP rises, is for the debt servicing costs to overtake the income earning capacity of the asset, so that ultimately the only means of profit for the borrower is to sell the asset on a rising market. Between sales, the borrower is losing money, as the cash flow from the asset is less than the servicing costs on the debt that was used to finance it.”
From Professor Steve Keen, in the following article:
https://www.opendemocracy.net/neweconomics/the-ten-graphs-which-show-how-britain-became-a-wholly-owned-subsiduary-of-the-city-of-london-and-what-we-can-do-about-it/

As for interest rate increases, US ‘private non-financial sector’ currently has a debt-servicing ratio of 14.9%. It’s prior peaks are at 18.4% in 2007 and 17.4% in 2000, according to BIS data. Toying with my graphing calculator, I observe that interest rates can rise by ~200 basis points in the US before debt servicing costs reach these prior peak levels, without accounting for any changes to broad-based income. And then we’ll see. As for Canada, our debt-servicing ratio peaked in 2016 at 24.2%, so the next couple years should be interesting*.

https://www.bis.org/statistics/dsr.htm?m=6%7C380%7C671

*(From Joss Whedon’s movie, ‘Firefly’):
Mal: Define interesting.
Wash: [Pauses] Oh God! Oh God! We’re all going to die!?

;-)

#46 What can I say about that? on 06.13.18 at 7:21 pm

“It’s pretty obvious houses will cost less in a year than they do now.” – Garth

—————————————————-

It’s pretty obvious to me that ghouses will cost a lot more in ten years.

Why? – Garth

#47 jess on 06.13.18 at 7:21 pm

https://tinyurl.com/y77afj3m (new york times)

trumps thinks americans should pay more on their utilities to prop up unprofitable plants could also mean higher prices for consumers.

…”The leaked Energy Department memo indicated that the White House may invoke national security and rely on emergency powers that are normally used for short-term crises like hurricanes. The administration has argued that the loss of coal and nuclear plants, which can run around the clock, would make America’s electric grid less reliable. But grid operators themselves have disputed this rationale, arguing that there is no pressing emergency.

An attempt to prop up unprofitable plants could also mean higher prices for consumers. An earlier bailout proposal by Mr. Perry would have cost between $311 million and $11.8 billion per year, according to an estimate by the research firm Energy Innovation. That plan was ultimately rejected by federal regulators, who have been no less critical of the administration’s latest idea.

“This intervention could potentially ‘blow up’ the markets and result in significant rate increases without any corresponding reliability, resilience, or cybersecurity benefits,” warned Robert F. Powelson, one of Mr. Trump’s own appointees on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which oversees electricity markets, at a Senate hearing on Tuesday.

=======
the grid

The PJM electrical grid is more reliable than ever, with 23 percent reserve margins and billions of dollars of new investment. All of this is occurring while emissions are decreasing and wholesale prices are at historic lows for the 65 million consumers we serve. From 2008 to 2017, wholesale prices in PJM fell by more than 40 percent. Competition has required generators to operate more efficiently while also attracting new, more efficient technology, resulting in more than $1.4 billion in annual savings.read more here:

http://www.pjm.com/-/media/about-pjm/newsroom/2018-releases/20180601-pjm-statement-on-potential-doe-market-intervention.ashx

#48 Harold on 06.13.18 at 7:28 pm

DELETED

#49 Ian on 06.13.18 at 7:32 pm

BoC and the Plozzer and the Wilcko are in deep, deep trouble.

Guaranteed they didn’t want this. But it’s on, and Canada will have to track the US rates higher.

We only had 1.3% GDP growth in Q1.

Combine that with Ontario’s construction economy that is 3x the size it should be, and in the process of cratering, and we have a major issue.

I have to be honest I am not clear what Powell is doing. Maybe he stops after this to help Trumpy in the midterms. Really getting confusing.

Anyway 100% confidence Canada is in deep shit.

We should do a pool as to when GTA houses for sale passes 10k. It’s not far off.

#50 Adrian on 06.13.18 at 7:37 pm

Oh, I should add that my previous post about debt-servicing costs in the US also doesn’t consider new borrowing, whereas new private debt in the US is almost certainly over 5% of GDP per year. In other words, ~200 basis points is likely still a high-side estimate for how much further we can go before the non-financial private sector debt-servicing costs peak again.

#51 Capt. Serious on 06.13.18 at 7:44 pm

The FOMC statement change to more hawkish tone is very significant. Full steam ahead on rate increases for the next while.
I think we’re still in about inning 3 of a Canadian housing correction game. My feeling is just now people are starting to realize the cost of money is going up and that real estate might not be going up year over year. It takes a few months of persistently bad news to reach through and influence the masses.

#52 bdwy sktrn on 06.13.18 at 7:45 pm

ok so the cows are not on party drugs, bst, lsd , hst….whatever.

buy it’s not hard to avoid…

Note: 100% organic dairy products are always free of milk from cows given rBST so I have not included them in my list of 30 conventional brands.

Tillamook
Umpqua :: policy
Darigold :: policy
Knudsen
Schneider’s :: policy
Sunshine Dairy :: policy
Daisy :: policy
Alpenrose Dairy
Turner Dairy :: policy
Smith Dairy :: policy
Oakhurst Dairy :: policy
Jilbert Dairy :: policy
Roberts Dairy : policy
Hood (note: only milk and ice cream) :: policy
Trader Joe’s labeled dairy products
Whole Foods 365 and 365 Organic :: policy
Kroger branded dairy products (note: milk and cream used in all dairy products are rBST free but they are still sourcing rBST free dairy powders such as whey, buttermilk, and whey protein concentrate)
Safeway labeled dairy products :: policy
Kerrygold Butter :: policy
Challenge Butter (note: 6 of their butter products listed in the policy) :: policy
Dannon
Yoplait Yogurt
Chobani Yogurt :: policy
Brown Cow Yogurt :: policy
Fage Yogurt :: policy
Nancy’s Yogurt :: policy
Ben and Jerry’s (note: all milk and cream is but cannot guarantee manufactured ingredients like brownies, cookie dough, etc. are hormone free) :: policy

#53 Reximus on 06.13.18 at 7:53 pm

We should do a pool as to when GTA houses for sale passes 10k. It’s not far off.

====

and where, praytell, will all those house sellers go to live?

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.13.18 at 7:53 pm

@#52 bdwy sktrn

Milk? Butter?

WTH?

No smug comments about owning Real estate in the Lowerbrainland?

#55 Jonathan on 06.13.18 at 7:56 pm

RE: Crossing the border to gas up

I work eight minutes from the US border and have NEXUS. It takes me 30 minutes to cross the border, gas up and come back at lunch time.

I save $200 a month on fuel by doing this, even with Washington’s high fuel costs relative to the rest of the USA (California excepted).

That’s real money for most people and definitely worth the time and effort. I also buy pretty much all of my car parts across the border (massive savings – usually 30-50%, at least, sometimes much more).

Bottom line: Garth, it’s not like you to dismiss savings so quickly without checking the math. The math (for me, in the Lower Mainland) makes a TON of sense when it comes to gassing up in the USA, due to easily crossing the border (don’t have big line-ups with NEXUS). $2400 a year in after-tax savings is huge! That doesn’t count that I get 4% on my credit card (paid off monthly) for buying gas as well, so I’m closer to $2500 a year in savings. That’s nearly half of what is required to max out a TFSA!

#56 Cow Man on 06.13.18 at 7:59 pm

#26 Wait There

I too read Max’s chapter on Supply Management. The difference between you and me is that I operated in that sector for over 40 years. It is what Max does not document that matters. Debt per dairy cow in Ontario is $30,000. Most of this debt is carried by Farm Credit Corporation which is a Federal farm loan agency.

If Max did the math he would have shown that the total value of the quota held on the average farm is the total net worth of the dairy farm operation. Without quota the dairy farms are net nothing. The lender the Federal Government will have to foreclose on a lot of dairy farms.

Farm land prices in Ontario are supported almost entirely by supply management. Why? The Provincial Nutrient Management Act. A farmer has to own enough land to spread the manure from their livestock.

The system is far more complicated than Max either chooses to disclose, or maybe he just does not actually know what he is talking about.

The poultry sector is on a far more stable footing. No pun intended.

#57 Ontario Government Site on 06.13.18 at 8:03 pm

There are dozens of dairy plants making ice cream, milk, and cheese throughout the province. Also there are dozens of meat packing plants.

#58 Keith on 06.13.18 at 8:03 pm

@#41 Trumpie

New employment numbers post GFC under Obama were 250,000 – 300,000 per month, for years. Economics is defined by trends. Employment numbers are best measured as a trend. So Trump inherited the trend.

Garth has it right. Trump tax cuts have goosed the economy short term, without cutting government spending the near trillion dollar deficits are in the mail.

#59 John M on 06.13.18 at 8:05 pm

bdwy sktrn on 06.13.18 at 6:25 pm

US border a red light away from White Rock with Nexus? I call BS.. major BS.. every thing you say after this is obviously BS also.. do some research on US dairy ignoramus…

#60 SilverSon on 06.13.18 at 8:13 pm

#55 Jonathan on 06.13.18 at 7:56 pm

Ugh, that’s smuggling dude. You’re not supposed to have anything acquired in the US when using Nexus.

#61 Drill Baby Drill on 06.13.18 at 8:27 pm

If Trump really does follow thru with this hate on for Selfie Boy then we are in big trouble economically. Trump is trying to prove that Canada really is insignificant and we are about to be punished for Selfie Boy’s insubordination. Even if Trump cannot pass any of his planned tariffs because of congress it will still hit Canada hugely in the mean time.

#62 Lost...but not leased on 06.13.18 at 8:34 pm

Cross Border Shoppers and bragging about their savings:

You must work for the Gov’t and/ or how about on your next trip to USA bring back some undocumented worker to do your job in Canada ?

#63 Smoking Man on 06.13.18 at 8:34 pm

Ian on 06.13.18 at 7:32 pm
BoC and the Plozzer and the Wilcko are in deep, deep trouble.

Guaranteed they didn’t want this. But it’s on, and Canada will have to track the US rates higher.

We only had 1.3% GDP growth in Q1.

Combine that with Ontario’s construction economy that is 3x the size it should be, and in the process of cratering, and we have a major issue.

I have to be honest I am not clear what Powell is doing. Maybe he stops after this to help Trumpy in the midterms. Really getting confusing.

Anyway 100% confidence Canada is in deep shit.

We should do a pool as to when GTA houses for sale passes 10k. It’s not far off.
…….

One week is my bet…. The down turn is going to accelerate now. People trying to exit before the next round of rate hikes.

#64 Madcat on 06.13.18 at 8:43 pm

Smart… Leduc is leaving the BOC to join a new winning team before the $h!t hits the fan lol!

#65 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 06.13.18 at 8:49 pm

#22 Jungle

Tee hee SHYSTER Tee hee. This will be a painful crash. Happy housing crash everyone. SHYSTERS are the worst story tellers.

#66 crdt on 06.13.18 at 8:52 pm

“Besides legitimizing intolerance, objectifying women, praising dictators and dissing Mr. Socks”

None of the above is based in facts except dissing Mr. Socks. Let us all get off our high horses and take a reality check. Lets give needless virtue signalling a rest, and turn off CNN and etc… Your intolerance to Trump is intolerable, predictable and boring.

He said Kim was great. Putin, too. And did you ever hear of the Access Hollywood tape? Tell me those things are fake. – Garth

#67 Beso on 06.13.18 at 8:52 pm

Feels like sipping my first glass of wine, with two more bottles to go :-)

#68 proftyre on 06.13.18 at 8:54 pm

Garth

With the pending interest rate hike, which rate reset preferred ETF in Canada would be a good value purchase at this point?

#69 X on 06.13.18 at 9:02 pm

Mortgages a year ago were 2%, no stress test. Now the hurdle is 5.3%. That is significant. – Garth

Have had a few patients mention that they were borrowing money from a 2nd lender/family member, so it appeared they had more money than they had to secure their mortgage to get around the additional 2% qualification.

You would think the first warning sign would be enough that they shouldn’t buy….but one hiccup and their housing and financial plans will be ruined.

The stress test is universal, regardless of the size of the downpayment. – Garth

#70 tccontrarian on 06.13.18 at 9:12 pm

“American interest rates ticked higher. It was the second increase this year and the 6th in the last 18 months. The central bank also indicated there are two more hikes likely in 2018 and another three in 2019. That’s five more ahead, adding 50% to the basic funds rate.”-GT
—————————————————————

The last time there was an upward trend in interest rates (2004-2007), gold went on a serious run – I’m guessing a similar occurence this time around.
Personally, I’m all loaded up with gold-related investments and ready for take-off. Anyone with me?

TCC

Gold is a nothingburger and has been for seven years. – Garth

#71 mike from mtl on 06.13.18 at 9:14 pm

#55 Jonathan on 06.13.18 at 7:56 pm
RE: Crossing the border to gas up

I work eight minutes from the US border and have NEXUS. It takes me 30 minutes to cross the border, gas up and come back at lunch time.

I save $200 a month on fuel by doing this, even with Washington’s high fuel costs relative to the rest of the USA (California excepted).

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Err ok, granted but here’s the real savings, not spending in the first place! I know stupid, right?

Why purchase what is probably consumerist crap to begin with, wasting your time and life trying to save a few bucks? For sure we get hosed up north I concede but if you don’t purchase, who cares. Sort of like 25% off ‘sale’, but 100% off if not buying in the first place.

Other than rent, food, booze, services (mobile, internet, hydro) and toiletries (in that order) I haven’t purchased a single ‘thing’ for the last three months.

Other than the corpos, who needs NEEDS this crap?

Besides, it’s illegal. – Garth

#72 Ace Goodheart on 06.13.18 at 9:23 pm

Trump apologists:

Your great, dear leader, does not care about you.

When his actions result in the destruction of Western institutions, harm to hundreds of thousands of people, lost jobs, damaged economies, broken industries, it is just a coincidence.

Trump has pledged to hurt Canadians because he thinks our Prime Minister insulted him.

I know this is hard to comprehend.

Trump will cause permanent damage to three of the USA’s largest auto manufacturers, cause the loss of hundreds of thousands of US jobs, destroy the USA’s relationship with its closest trading partners, all to avenge a personal insult.

He intends only to get revenge.

Any other consequence of his actions is unintended.

It is very hard for us to understand a man like Trump because we try to find meaning in his actions.

There is none.

He’s a grown baby.

#73 wallflower on 06.13.18 at 9:23 pm

***Seller is offering to pay the first 6 months condo fees to purchaser***

on a unit whose twin just listed for $399K they are still asking $535K but figure 6 months in condo fee forgiveness ($2,400) should make up the $136,000 mortgage difference!!!!!
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19204534/402—40-FERNDALE-Drive-S-Barrie-Ontario-L4N2L3

#74 Andrewt on 06.13.18 at 9:25 pm

#53 Reximus on 06.13.18 at 7:53 pm
We should do a pool as to when GTA houses for sale passes 10k. It’s not far off.

====

and where, praytell, will all those house sellers go to live?

Sometimes I wonder if some folks comprehend, or even read, the blog posts. Spec-u-la-tors. Duh.

#75 Taking A Risk on 06.13.18 at 9:33 pm

Cross border shopping has a risk with consequences, so hope you load up on health insurance because you never know anymore.

#76 Wait There on 06.13.18 at 9:36 pm

So where is Bitcoin going these days?
Need an article to catch up on those who might have caught a falling knife.

This Trump stuff is getting boring. We know we are screwed one way or another. Combine rising rates, RE and Trade.
Pass the Advil. Extra Strength please.

#77 Trump for IFM Chief on 06.13.18 at 9:42 pm

How did anyone NOT know Trump would shake up things bring back inflation and have interest rates normalize as a result.

This is why we voted for him.

Guess what broke Canadians need to curb their spending habits? Higher interest rates. They don’t listen to stern warnings. They just max out whatever they can. If one could borrow 10M for a house in Vancouver, they would.

Canadian spending habits changing in 3, 2, 1…

Thank you Trump.

#78 A J on 06.13.18 at 9:47 pm

#65 crdt

You know what’s really intolerable, predictable and boring? The selective hearing and blind following of Trump supporters like you.

#79 tccontrarian on 06.13.18 at 9:51 pm

The last time there was an upward trend in interest rates (2004-2007), gold went on a serious run – I’m guessing a similar occurence this time around.
Personally, I’m all loaded up with gold-related investments and ready for take-off. Anyone with me?

TCC
———-
Gold is a nothingburger and has been for seven years. – Garth
********************************************

“nothingburger”?

Sorry, I lick my gold, not chew it. Too valuable!

I’m not a buy ‘n hold investor so what gold did in the last 7 years is irrelevant. Besides, that statement is wrong: from January 2016 till now, precious metals ETFs have outperformed every other asset class (gained 250-300% Jan-Aug 2016, then languished mostly sideways).

I’m willing to wait for the 200-300% moves every 3-5 years – and I don’t expect others to have the same patience!

TCC

#80 Wait until next year to buy? on 06.13.18 at 9:54 pm

Don’t bother if looking at B.C. property.

You are already priced out.

Sales are now the lowest level since 250AD.

Meanwhile, prices have now eclipsed peak bitcoin bubble.

And most can expect to pay their debt off in 400-500 years from now.

The next move is 100-year amortizations.

#81 Stan Brooks on 06.13.18 at 9:59 pm

#27 Nonplused on 06.13.18 at 6:18 pm
Even if house prices fell 10%, I am not sure who would suddenly be able to afford them.

==================================

We in Canada are so used to ideologies and political correctness that very few understand the actual severity of the situation.

Our auto industry as most of our industries are based on utilizing cheap labour in Canada when compared to US. So we devalue the currency to stay ‘competitive’.

We basically assemble car parts made elsewhere.

Now US is sick with that and will impose tariffs on everything. Cars will cost more but they should cost more in 1st place, money will go to US manufacturers and create jobs there, not in Canada.

Bashing Trump or someone else will not help. The outsourcing to Canada from US is over.

Of course it is hard to adjust when you are run by morons with no vision whatsoever.

End of NAFTA is also nearing.

Combined with the credit bubble crash….

Will we see Detroit-ization of Ontario?
Absolutely.

The coming transformation combined with automation and job loss will absolutely change the world we live in in Canada.

And there is nothing wrong about that.
We lived on credit doing very little, over consuming and under investing for too long. It was sweet times.

Now people/bankers want their money back with interest.

And the sheeple will pay one way or another.

Of course the whole housing thingy was a big scam and a Ponzi scheme facilitated by government/CHMC for bank profits.

Now they want higher rates and taxes. Pay up, stupid.
The problem is that even responsible people will pay one way or another. There is high cost to pay for being surrounded by stupid.

When you are in the wrong place there is very little you can do to influence you life. In Canada that chance is negative, you simply go with the flow, whenever it brings you or leave.

When the flow brings you to the toilet flush moment and it hits the fan, it becomes smelly and unpleasant.

Place of delusions facing reality.

And the worse part is that we keep pretending things are just fine. You can’ fix a problem without recognizing it.
So we elect ideological virtue calling morons who have no experience or skills to run a nation to ‘defend our interests’. And we rally behind them when they send us to slaughter.

So slave on and pay up.

One thing I like about US is they don’t have a problem calling moron a moron. Of course Trump is strange and unpredictable. But maybe that is much better for US than having the likes of T2 and his dang of incompetent ruling us.

Tell me one good thing this liberal government has done.

The bad list is endless
carbon taxes
ruining small businesses
destroying NAFTA
promoting fake equality problems, creating problems to fix, apologizing in tear to everyone.
destroying pension plans for profit of corrupted politicians.
subsiding failing indusgtries

……………..

Again legalization of cannabis has its place in the final stage of the decline, the herd has to be kept quiet between shifts, now when there is still work and debts to pay.

When with automation jobs disappear…
Look Ontario, see Detroit.
It is imminent and no amount of wishful thinking or political correctness will change that.

So plan accordingly.

#82 Law firms in BC on 06.13.18 at 10:02 pm

Are struggling with rule of law being enforced by D. Eby.

So, as a result to counter measure the closing loop holes one smart law firm who is poised to keep the part going has hired non other that crooked Christy.

This law firm now has a strategic advantage in utilizing slick loopholes to keep the funny money flowing in through the law firms in BC peddling the dirty money.

Lock her up! Trump would have already done this.

Crooked Christy.

#83 Stan Brooks on 06.13.18 at 10:06 pm

78 Wait until next year to buy? on 06.13.18 at 9:54 pm
Don’t bother if looking at B.C. property.

You are already priced out.

Sales are now the lowest level since 250AD.

Meanwhile, prices have now eclipsed peak bitcoin bubble.

And most can expect to pay their debt off in 400-500 years from now.

The next move is 100-year amortizations.

——————————

That was funny.

In 10 years 40 % of Americans and probably 50-60 % of Canadians will loose their jobs permanently due to robots and automation.

But hey, maybe exactly this is why it could be a good idea to introduce 100 years, interests only mortgages now.

Extend the good times for a few months/years.

Of course that will be equivalent of falling from the 60th floor instead of 50th, but the end result is death anyway, so why care about tomorrow?

#84 tccontrarian on 06.13.18 at 10:13 pm

Some numbers:

A typical ‘balanced’ portfolio with 8% annualized average return, over 20 years:

Year
1 100,000 8% 8,000
2 108,000 8% 8,640
3 116,640 8% 9,331
4 125,971 8% 10,078
5 136,049 8% 10,884
6 146,933 8% 11,755
7 158,687 8% 12,695
8 171,382 8% 13,711
9 185,093 8% 14,807
10 199,900 8% 15,992
11 215,892 8% 17,271
12 233,164 8% 18,653
13 251,817 8% 20,145
14 271,962 8% 21,757
15 293,719 8% 23,498
16 317,217 8% 25,377
17 342,594 8% 27,408
18 370,002 8% 29,600
19 399,602 8% 31,968
20 431,570 8% 34,526

Four ‘losing’ years as indicated -5%, -10%, -20%, with one BIG year of 250% every 5, for 20 years, as above:

Year
1 100,000 -0.05% (50)
2 99,950 -20.00% (19,990)
3 79,960 -10.00% (7,996)
4 71,964 -10.00% (7,196)
5 64,768 250% 161,919
6 226,687 -0.05% (113)
7 226,573 -20.00% (45,315)
8 181,259 -10.00% (18,126)
9 163,133 -10.00% (16,313)
10 146,819 250% 367,049
11 513,868 -0.05% (257)
12 513,611 -20.00% (102,722)
13 410,889 -10.00% (41,089)
14 369,800 -10.00% (36,980)
15 332,820 250% 832,050
16 1,164,870 -0.05% (582)
17 1,164,288 -20.00% (232,858)
18 931,430 -10.00% (93,143)
19 838,287 -10.00% (83,829)
20 754,458 250% 1,886,146

Clearly, IF (a big “if”) one is willing to have 3-4 ‘losing’ years but ‘set-up’ for the big moves, only once every 5 years or so, the difference is yuuuuge!

Of course, no guarantees that you’ll get the ‘big’ move every 5 years – so for illustrative purposes only.

TCC

#85 Up Van Island Low Balls? on 06.13.18 at 10:19 pm

It must be wayyyy up Island only accessible by float plane or something, because anything near Nanaimo, or Victoria is soooooooo overpriced. Unreal.

Bring a million dollars. Thanks Christy.

#86 cowtown cowboy on 06.13.18 at 10:20 pm

Looks like southern ON is going to get to experience what AB has gone through the last 5 yrs…all due to yankee interference…prepare for the BIG SUCK! It’s gonna hurt.

Joined the board of our local UCP constituency to help eradicate the orange scourge that has infected our province…lots of board members are currently unemployed, previously well paid O&G professionals…sound familiar ON??? Sounds like it’s your turn next, govern yourself accordingly.

#87 aa5 on 06.13.18 at 10:24 pm

Not like this will happen, but we could always open our agricultural markets to the US. Our food prices would be like half what they are now, which would go a long ways to improving the standard of living/disposable income of Cdns.

But many very, very wealthy and powerful families hold those farm quotas so you can imagine how keen they are at opening up.

#88 akashic records on 06.13.18 at 10:24 pm

Can you guys see the absurdity of how fast, with how much force are you turning into viciously hating each other?

Can you see, how you are inching every day closer and closer to become hutu vs tutsi, serb vs bosnian?

Can you explain to yourself what is happening to you?

Can you see yourself manipulated into an angry, hateful puppet by some irresistible force?

#89 High Prices around Victoria on 06.13.18 at 10:24 pm

I found a nice place near Victoria (30 min drive).

Threw up when I saw the price tag of $10,888,888.88

Next year it will be $18,888,888.88

By the year 2030 it will be $88,888,888.88

Not measured in the CPI, so, all good.

#90 -=jwk=- on 06.13.18 at 10:30 pm

@ Garth
I am sure Trump and his administration have crunched the numbers too on the trade imbalance with Canada ;-) obviously, the numbers aren’t in America’s favour or it would not be an issue for him.

And I am pretty sure they haven’t. In case you haven’t figured it out yet, everything Trump does is simply made up. Real numbers are irrevlant to his fan abse, so why bother with them?


#285 Really?
yesterday..
Trump is uneducated ?
University of Pennsylvania – Wharton School.
Warren Buffet, The Donald, my Dad, Me

Wharton is known for their excellent MBA program. When you say ‘Wharton’ implying the prestige of their rigorous MBA program. He transferred into Wharton with the help of an (rich) uncle and squeaked out a degree in Economics. So he has a B.A. from U Penn. He is the least educated president since Reagan. Even Carter the peanut farmer has a B.Sc degree. Buffet ‘attended’ Wharton but never graduated, getting his B.SC from U Nebraska and his M.s from Columbia.

Please don’t embarrass any other Wharton grads by liking Donald trump to the prestigious business school he never attended.

#91 Re: 55 on 06.13.18 at 10:35 pm

What do you drive: a tank?

In a typical car you save 5 bucks going to Point Roberts to fill up.

Are you one of those guys filling up 50 gas cans?

I see it every time. Then you are saving $2400 a year. In fact you could start selling it to your friends and make money.

Border agents apparently don’t care about this going on.

Wait, who am I kidding. If you are from Vancouver you will lie to the border agent just like you lie to the CRA about your illegal basement suite.

It is only soft fraud right?

It is for the kids.

#92 AB Boxster on 06.13.18 at 10:45 pm

Words vs actions

I once worked for a CEO who used saying: People can say what they want, I’ll watch their feet.

So on the one side we have Trump. Arguably says ridiculous things at times. Overuses Twitter to a fault. And says, or has said things that today are consider boorish or politically incorrect. (ie Access Hollywood)

So you know what Trump says,but I’ll watch his feet. ie what has he done lately.

The strongest US economy with lowest unemployment since 1969.
Has shown the media as the left wing liars that most of them are.
Eliminated ISIS in a little over a year.
Taken the world to task for their hypocrisy over the fact that the Americans basically foot the entire NATO bill, while others spend nothing but enjoy NATO protection.
Has called China on their trade protection and government sanctioned espionage and spying.
Has implemented one of the largest tax cuts in history.
Has supported domestic business as part of america first.
Has normalized interest rates.
Has contributed to one of the greated rise in equity markets.
Oh, yes hundreds of other things that have benefitted business and citizens in the US.

Compare that to Canada’s idiot leadership.

All they talk about is gendre equity, BS.
They believe that Canada can solve global climate change by taxing citizens to death.
They believe the most pressing issue of the day is that of the downtrodden trangender folks.

This would be fine if all they did was talk.
But lets look at their actions.

They screwed up trade with China by pushing gender issues.
They are screwing up NAFTA by pushing gender issues.
They kill all energy projects to virtue signal what a climate leader we are.

They implement job killing carbon taxes that do nothing to achieve environmental goals.
They support legislation making it illegal to not use ‘state sanctioned’ pronouns.
They preach free trade but champion supply mangement that benefits a few thousand farmers, while costing 30 million canadians.
They tried to tax the ‘rich bastard’ lawyers and doctors.
They do nothing for domestic populations but have vast amounts of money for globetrotting to climate change schmoozefests, or for gendre projects.
They think that the best way to help those who want to toke up anytime, anyplace, is to make it legal to toke up anytime, anyplace.
They think that it is OK to make federal funding conditional on ones firm belief in unfettered abortion.

So to compare, Trump has an economic agenda to make America and Americans better off. Oh, and he says dumb things.
(mostly about CNN which is OK)

Trudeau has a social agenda to try to make the world into his left wing socialist nirvana. Most of what he does has nothing to do with making Canada or Canadians more prosperous. He likes to virtue signal about ‘good’ we Canadians are, and he never misses an opportunity to appologize about some perceived injustice to some inane group that is really looking for a cash handout.

Trudeau loses hands down, and Canada loses because of this.

Sure, we’d all like a Trump said a few less silly things. (although it is hugely entertaining watching Hollywood and the media’s heads explode) but Trump wins hands down over vitue signalling, socialist nutjobs like T2.

Canada needs a leader that actually cares about Canada (all regions not just Ontario and Quebec), the well being of its citizens and its economic success.

Virtue signalling, endless pathetic apologies, gender based everything, and pandering to every interest group, does nothing to further a country or the citizens in it.

#93 Doghouse Dweller on 06.13.18 at 10:46 pm

Besides, it’s illegal. – Garth
————————————–
Trying to figure boarder regulations is easy , basically, everything is made illegal once the Government finds out.
If voting actually made a difference they would make that illegal too.

#94 islander on 06.13.18 at 10:48 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/13/trump-nafta-g7-sunset-clause-trade-agreement
“In arguing for a sunset clause to the Nafta trade agreement, this odious man is exposing the corruption of liberal democracy…”
Right about something – this article by George Monbiot is worth a read!

#95 Homelessness in Kelowna Sky Rockets. on 06.13.18 at 10:48 pm

Who would have guessed that?

Up 23% from 2016. And that is after shipping the bulk of homelessness to Vernon. Seriously, they bus them out and drop them off in Vernon, aka the Kelowna dumping ground.

Yah Colin. You have learned well from your master Moonbeam.

I bet you are going to base your next election platform on eliminating homelessness, while secretly continuing to funnel in that funny money.

#96 Alan Dee on 06.13.18 at 11:04 pm

Just as government policies (interest rates, down payments requirements and amortization periods) have changed many times over the past 10 years, there is nothing that says the B-20 rules won’t change as well as conditions warrant. At some point the B-20 will decrease or disappear …

#97 Pete on 06.13.18 at 11:05 pm

#79 Stan Brooks…

well said!

I’d like to add:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guQw3nSkXMY

#98 georgist on 06.13.18 at 11:17 pm

Please choose:

1. a miracle
2. rates up housing crash
3. low rates boomers past earning age sinking in a tide of inflation

#99 meslippery on 06.13.18 at 11:44 pm

Thing is Garth makes so much money he forgets the cost of goods /over time to acquire is not the same for us all.
—————–
Yet so many Canadians are crossing the border, in order to buy dairy and poultry products across the border…

Fools. It’s not worth the gas. – Garth
………………….

It is worth it if you also fill up your tank while you are down there.

And your time is worthless. Fools. – Garth
-No Garth how much pay less tax times hours worked to get after tax money to buy taxed again gas and all the things you can pick when there hum.. You a numbers guy well maybe for you the numbers dont work.
No reason to think that for people living handy to the boarder.

#100 Ex-Cowtown on 06.13.18 at 11:49 pm

#71 Ace Goodheart on 06.13.18 at 9:23 pm
Trump apologists:

Your great, dear leader, does not care about you.

When his actions result in the destruction of Western institutions, harm to hundreds of thousands of people, lost jobs, damaged economies, broken industries, it is just a coincidence.

Trump has pledged to hurt Canadians because he thinks our Prime Minister insulted him.

I know this is hard to comprehend.

Trump will cause permanent damage to three of the USA’s largest auto manufacturers, cause the loss of hundreds of thousands of US jobs, destroy the USA’s relationship with its closest trading partners, all to avenge a personal insult.

He intends only to get revenge.

Any other consequence of his actions is unintended.

It is very hard for us to understand a man like Trump because we try to find meaning in his actions.

There is none.

He’s a grown baby.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Text book case of cognitive dissonance. The tell is when someone figures he can read someone, anyone’s mind.

And Ace Kreskin here reads Trumps mind 6 times? Wow!!! He should have been on Kim’s negotiation team. No need to meet, can just do everything telepathically.

Quick, what color am I thinking of? C’mon man, piece of cake! I’m way closer than Trumpy is.

Sad….so very sad….

MAGA! Make Alberta Great Again!

#101 Myra Andrews on 06.14.18 at 12:04 am

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul Boenisch

June 13 New 278 Sold 134 TI: 12,533
June 12 New 318 Sold 106 TI: 12,477
June 11 New 372 Sold 131 TI: 12,368

June 8 New 202 Sold 108 TI: 12,271
June 7 New 232 Sold 117 TI: 12,226
June 6 New 295 Sold 156 TI: 12,154
June 5 New 359 Sold 101 TI: 12,105
June 4 New 376 Sold 117 TI: 11,942

June 1 New 224 Sold 105 TI: 11,817

Inventory at the end of:
May- 11,975
April- 10,459
March- 9,032
Feb- 8,211

#102 Dolce Vita on 06.14.18 at 12:06 am

I like to do my own thinking on matters, use my own words…one of the reasons I like Garth and his Blog…in his OWN words, funny as heck and for the most part coherent (unless it’s a Trump, Gold or SJW rant – which is fine, entertaining always).

Having said that an exception to the rule about thinking on my own.

Taken aback by a couple of Globe & Mail articles referred to by John Pasalis today on his Twitter feed about young voices (27-37 yrs old) and housing.

Very much in agreement with what Garth is saying today.

Pretty grim read other than one young voice, a School Teacher, was the only one talking TFSA (Smoking Man will not like that but Garth will) but in essence, the Globe sensationalizing generational frustrations to sell copy.

Globe author (Carrick) minted another or backup article on Millennials “ripping” about their home ownership frustrations.

This QUOTE struck me:

“Baby boomers, how are you going to lock in those juicy profits on your house if young people aren’t able to buy and keep the market buoyant?”

ANSWER: You don’t. Called a HELOC.

Paper millionaires that cannot sell at “their price”, in debt to a bank all for the sake of retirement cash flow due to their lack of retirement foresight when young.

Why RE will plummet in price later this year. No buyers at the low end other than “RE Investors” selling to themselves…unsustainable.

Article links if you want (predictable reads, generational bitterness):
_______________________________________________

Young voices from the housing market: “Our financial life centres around the costs of our home…”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/gen-y-money/article-young-voices-from-the-housing-market-our-financial-life-centers/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links
_______________________________________________

Haunted by housing: Millennials let rip about their home ownership frustrations

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/gen-y-money/article-haunted-by-housing-millennials-let-rip-about-their-home-ownership/

#103 dzh123 on 06.14.18 at 12:32 am

The best part about Trump nuking the Canadian auto sector would be all the resultant EI, OW and ODSP claims… Coupled with home equity losses and maybe some problems with HELOCs, this will give Canada a chance to show how its superior social welfare system holds up.

#104 Home Slice on 06.14.18 at 1:12 am

#31 bdwy sktrn

buy a cottage on the other side, stay the weekend, then come home with savings of;

smokes 65
cigars 50
“other” tobacco 50
scotch 40
amazon po box stuff 30

===========

Hopefully, but I doubt you will have the decency to also take your medical needs across the border as well, once your heavy tobacco starts to take its toll.

It would hardly seem fair to burden this Country with self induced medical problems while saving so much on ciggy butts while ‘sticking it to the man’

@ #79 Stan Brooks – Way to tell it like it is

#105 Newcomer on 06.14.18 at 1:29 am

#79 Stan Brooks on 06.13.18 at 9:59 pm

Have you considered reaching out to a member of the clergy. You might be surprised how different things can look in a relatively short time with a little input from people who are devoted to helping with this stuff.

#106 NoName on 06.14.18 at 1:37 am

Oh Calgary..

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/taxpayerss-share-of-calgary-city-councillors-pensions-more-than-three-other-cities-combined-watchdog/amp?__twitter_impression=true

#107 Entrepreneur on 06.14.18 at 1:45 am

1969, I remember those youthful years full of dreams but time to get those dreams for our youth. Who would vote for Stan Brooks or how would change our electoral system or who would help Canada become great again?

I do know that we have to fall to the bottom first and then will rise to the top as we do have the manpower and intelligence.

Trump is the President of his country, U.S.A., and is fighting to make it grow, thumbs up to him. The middle class grows from dreams, an idea, from using hands and minds, developing small businesses and maybe growing into bigger.

But too bad he didn’t become president in 1969 as earth has changed too (cannot ignore earth’s climate change). And btw, we are all in this together; we cannot shelter from the disaster no matter how well off one is.

How would you make Canada great again, Stan Brooks? Or anyone else?

#108 NoName on 06.14.18 at 2:01 am

Interesting read, don’t skip research report very interesting.

The World Cup and Economics 2018, by GS

http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/world-cup-2018/index.html?cid=scl-np-twitter-evergreen-post-20171&sf191747054=1

#109 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 06.14.18 at 2:24 am

Poloz will use the uncertainty Trudeau has injected into NAFTA and really doesn’t give a crap about the Loonie (so named by Pierre to make think money was just a joke to him) at 50 cents. His buddies in the Newfie Iron zore braintrust will back him all the way down to ten cents on the dollar. The rates will not rise again under the Poliz/Trudeau regime. Certainly when the next quarter shows that Canada has fallen behind Moldova once again. Trudeau parked Canada on the tracks when he let his handlers run around screaming “Puck Trump” at the G7 meeting…..and we’ve already been TBoned. The country is half in shock…half in a coma….but when we wake up you’ll collectively ask to be medically induced until after the 2019 election. If T2 is back in….do not resucitate.

#110 philg on 06.14.18 at 4:38 am

We are a Great Nation who should fear no one.

Should this Allie wish to change gears then so be it, however everything is then on the table for negotiation.

We have all the resources and talent available.

This will not be easy but we will and should equally share this pain for our greater good.

CANADA SUCKS UP TO NOBODY MR TRUMP

#111 philg on 06.14.18 at 5:09 am

Share the pain yes for industries affected.
Investers in ventures or RE its tough

#112 Stan Brooks on 06.14.18 at 5:13 am

T2’s politics in action.

After throwing immature T2 under the bus in tariffs talks with US, now Europeans reject ratification of the comprehensive Canada EU trade agreement.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/italy-wont-ratify-eu-free-074119186.html

For Italy and Europe it is a great news.
No pesticides and GMO allowed on this continent.

#113 Ian on 06.14.18 at 5:22 am

#53 Reximus

Where did they go to live in the 89-96 downturn?

Somewhere. Who cares. I’m sure they’ll figure it out. Back home maybe? Most of the speculated-on houses are empty anyway. I had a realtor do a rental search a while back and it becomes obvious so many bought in the hopes of getting on the house bubble gravy train and now their houses are empty with no rental cash flow, they are levered to the gills and their equity is imploding.

The housing bear is emerging from the woods and this time he is really hungry!!! This is where the chaos accelerates folks. I predict Hudak will be in CAMH by Christmas as he will have a meltdown. Happy Housing possibly too due to extreme giddiness.

Smoky might be right about the 10k for sale prediction. I think sometime this summer for sure. Zolo inventory is just exploding!

#114 Ian on 06.14.18 at 5:30 am

TCC I am all in!!!

Bought more Kirkland Lake yesterday. What a beautiful chart. Going to $100 in no time.

Inflation is going to explode upwards!

#115 Stan Brooks on 06.14.18 at 6:08 am

#101 Newcomer on 06.14.18 at 1:29 am
#79 Stan Brooks on 06.13.18 at 9:59 pm

Have you considered reaching out to a member of the clergy. You might be surprised how different things can look in a relatively short time with a little input from people who are devoted to helping with this stuff.

====================================

If you imply that sane people can not handle this crap, you are correct. Hence the cannabis legalization.

That is one option.

The second is to leave, laying down on the beach with a beer (yes, that is allowed in some places) is it seems much better idea than enjoying the GTA traffic and weather.

Besides things look surprisingly clearer from aside.

#103 Entrepreneur on 06.14.18 at 1:45 am

I think it is already too late.

My advice is to take cover, assume low tax profile and reallocate/diversify assets as not to allow theft.

The fall is imminent, unavoidable and the best we can do is soften it, but as I said, falling from the 50th floor instead of the 60th makes little difference at this point.

My humble opinion is that we will face horrendous inflation, higher taxes and then the blame game will start along with excuses for taxation and theft of assets in one form or another.

At this point I think living ‘La vida loca’/”the Crazy Life” in English is over.

When it hits the fan, let’s hope that decent people will be found to take over.

#116 Gravy Train on 06.14.18 at 6:08 am

#6 The Technical Analyst, CSTA, CPD on 06.13.18 at 4:59 pm
“Fiscal policy, fascinating eh?”

Uh, no. What you described in your posted comment was monetary policy. Fiscal policy is all about changes in government expenditures or taxes to influence the economy.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_policy
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policy

#27 Nonplused on 06.13.18 at 6:18 pm
“This is what happens when you elect ideologues.”

If you’re referring to Trump, calling him an ideologue is a bit of a stretch; he’s more of a demagogue—or demigod, to his supporters. :)

#79 Stan Brooks on 06.13.18 at 9:59 pm
“Tell me one good thing this liberal government has done. The bad list is endless….”

Have you thought about taking up yoga? :)

#117 Sam DiFranco on 06.14.18 at 6:21 am

To Neo

Intermediate and long term rates are staying low and not rising much because of future economic prospects.

Basically, the 10, 20, 30 year U.S. and Canada bond market is saying the current and future recovery is weak compared to past recoveries and higher interest rates will not last long maybe 9 to 18 months at most.

I can see a recession starting in late 2019. This looks similar to 2006 to 2007 and when the if the Fed raises rates to 3.25% as 5 more hikes does this, it is about 60% of what rates were back in 2007 and only 50% of what they were back in 2000. Remember when these were fed funds rates of 5.5, 6.5%.

U.S. and Canada 10+ year bonds were in the 5% to 6.7% range at their peak in these years. Those were 2 much stronger economic recoveries and we all know what happened after that time,18 years now much lower rates for longer.

There is no recession on the horizon. Interest rates will normalize, taking the Fed rate back near the historic norm – about 50% higher than now. That will likely happen within 18 months, and hold. – Garth

#118 New Era on 06.14.18 at 6:29 am

to # 79 Stan Brooks

Why do you bother anymore ?

If Canada is in the condition and context that you say it is (and I agree on some points you have made), why would you expect the cretins who have precipitated and participated in this failure to be able to recognize that what you have to say is largely true, let alone repair it ?

You will convince / persuade no one on this blog – nor in this country for that matter – they are just too deeply invested in their socialist / SJW dreams to see the maelstrom that they have concocted and will now be savaged by.

You can’t fix stupid and there is a lot of that about in Canada – both in its’ citizenry and its’ leaders.

Perhaps it is a form of therapy for you as you witness, with great frustration, the society that you love (and no doubt helped build to some degree) devolving into a socialist dystopia with all its attendant indignities.

I’m on the same page philosophically as you, but have learned to let the “stupids” learn their lesson while I (try to) insulate myself from the economic and societal fallout that I also see coming.

They will only learn from the ashes of their abject failures.

So be it.

In a word, “screw’em”.

#119 Doghouse Dweller on 06.14.18 at 6:44 am

#88 Re: 55
It`s not illegal to buy gas in the US . NEXUS or not .You are required to declare your purchases thats it. Its up to the boarder guard to decide if duties and tariffs apply.

http://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2015/asfc-cbsa/PS38-41-2014-eng.pdf

Yes the savings are substantial here in southern Ontario as of yesterday
it was 70 cents a liter CDN and some times much higher.

If you add in a grocery and no tax clothes for the kids trip, America is the BPOE.

RE: #73 Taking A Risk
Short term travel insurance is cheap .

#120 MF on 06.14.18 at 6:50 am

#108 Stan Brooks on 06

Haha “GMO foods” are the least of Italy or the EU’s worries.

The impending financial crisis, extreme societal unrest, and eventual collapse of the EU is what you should be worried about.

Hopefully Canada, the country you hate, slams the door in the face of all the ex pats who try to come back when it suits them.

MF

#121 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 06.14.18 at 6:58 am

Could this be it?

For some, yes. Today could be the day for Nunavut Premier Paul Quassa. Only seven-months into a 4 year stint, MLA’s have provided notice to a motion to remove Quassa from the Executive Council (aka. cabinet), in a vote of non-confidence. Meanwhile, 3-time former Premier and professional politician, Paul Okalik, has, yet again, made his way into the folds of government – appointed by Quassa to the chief negotiator of devolution position.

Nunavut’s own version of Hot Tub Time Machine: Pauls, Part Deux. It just won’t benefit anyone.

This quasi-conservative, quasi-liberal society is beyond explanation or comprehensible to anyone not an insider. Garth’s December 2017 list of 10 things to do for 2018 might need reconsideration, particularly point number 10.

#122 MF on 06.14.18 at 7:05 am

8 Dolce Vita

I read the article, thanks for the link.

It’s a good representation of what we are going through.

The take home messages:

-there will be political and social repercussions from the failed housing policy of the last decade. Expect the NDP to be a continuous threat.
-condos will continue to soar since all the millennials indicated housing costs are a hilarious joke. They are right.
-All the comments were from people with jobs. Some of them were professionals and had dual incomes. This indicates a profound shift from earlier generations. Anyone who dismisses this as “whining” as the delusional like to say, will be caught by the short end of the political or social stick if they don’t wake up.

MF

#123 Stan Brooks on 06.14.18 at 7:31 am

#114 New Era on 06.14.18 at 6:29 am

Wise advice. Looking at the cretins, the like of MF who perceive problems in Europe while not seeing the maelstrom coming to Canada…

How stupid can one really be in order to generalize as Canada haters everyone who disagrees with societal idiocies?

You are right, it is not worth it. time to move on.

Just can’t help it sometimes with that schadenfreude moment…

#124 Tater on 06.14.18 at 7:40 am

Had an interesting conversation with a corporate banker who covers home builders in the GTA. Apparently, they are starting to have issues with move up buyers unable to sell their existing home to close on new construction. Lots of request for extended closings and price reductions.

#125 IHCTD9 on 06.14.18 at 8:04 am

#89 AB Boxster on 06.13.18 at 10:45 pm
____

Excellent.

Trudeau is an idiot.

So is most of his Cabinet.

#126 Gravy Train on 06.14.18 at 8:06 am

#115 New Era on 06.14.18 at 6:29 am
“You can’t fix stupid and there is a lot of that about in Canada – both in its’ [sic] citizenry and its’ [sic] leaders.”

Case in point: Not knowing how to spell the word its is being rather stupid! :)
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/its

#127 Tater on 06.14.18 at 8:09 am

#13 M-F on 06.13.18 at 5:23 pm
Keep in mind that as interest rates rise, the +2% added for the stress test can, and probably will be, reduced to 1.5% or 1% and then 0% as interest rates rise and appear to be approaching a medium term top.

This will probably happen overnight and surprise everyone. Bears will howl that the government is propping up the market. But remember that while the government doesn’t want to see runaway prices, they also don’t want to see a terrible hard landing. So if they can soften the landing by reducing the +2% to +1% or 0% that is what they are going to do.
—————————————————————-

Once the psychology of buyers shifts, and they believe prices will fall for a while, low rates won’t matter, and lower qualifying rates will matter even less.

#128 Jack on 06.14.18 at 8:10 am

Looking forward to cheap milk, cheese, butter, and rBGH!

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.18 at 8:23 am

@#118 Arctic Gringo; Qalunaaq
“This quasi-conservative, quasi-liberal society is beyond explanation or comprehensible to anyone not an insider….”
+++++
You seem to be in a quandry over Quassa .
No need to quarrel.
Quaff some beer.
Quality vs quantity.
Time for a Qualuude?

#130 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 06.14.18 at 8:33 am

$Eight Hundred Million was what Trudeau spent on the G7 meeting here i Canada. My God. That our hard earned tax money. Why can’t they just stream each other. Surely we don’t need to fly them here, feed them, secure them, and house them. All the people I talk too are just as pissed as I am. Someone should run over him with a truck and them back up and run over him again. Set an example of what happens to people who spend money they don’t have and money our grandchildren will be paying on stupid interest payments…… He is worse than Trump.

#131 NoName on 06.14.18 at 8:33 am

Of topic, just to compare

Iran deal
* no nukes *
*Production facilities dismantled, reactor filled with concrete, 98% of materials taken out of country, no ICBMs,160 pages long.

NK deal
* 16 (maybe more) nukes
Production facilities not dismantled, reactor not filled with concrete, 0% of materials taken out of country, ICBMs, no nukes taken out 1 page long.

IRAN garbage deal, NK deal best thing that happened since sliced bread…

#132 Question on 06.14.18 at 8:35 am

#116 Doghouse – Give me one detailed cheap example of travel insurance that covers crossing the border to buy gas and groceries for unexpected expensive heath coverage while in USA.

#133 HaHaHa on 06.14.18 at 8:39 am

Stan Brooks for P.M. Was it me or did anyone notice the pipeline protests seem to be on the back burner in the news? I dunno when times are too good it seems that people rest on their laurels and take things for granted. Here in Alberta yes it is true people pissed it away again. Some of us didn’t. After getting out of school in the early 1980’s struggled after the first Trudeau. Learned that lesson and it stuck. Now retired at 55 with not only a railroad pension but bought company stocks. Even though the retards in the union said that was a bad idea. Bought a house and stayed put. Not a financial guru for sure. Debt is a killer kids. But it is not just kids. If you are over 55 and still paying a mortgage please do not give todays generation any financial advice.

#134 IHCTD9 on 06.14.18 at 8:45 am

Was watching a documentary last night about the Cascadia subduction zone.

9.0 – yikes! There are like 1000 reasons for me to never buy RE in Vancouver, now 1001. Right around the time all these million dollar shacks get paid for – the whole lot of them are going to drop into the pacific.

Gen Z, if you’re reading. Don’t buy in BC, and do not expect any inheritance from family that are currently living anywhere along the coastline in BC.

#135 dharma bum on 06.14.18 at 8:48 am

#33 Howard

Milk is vile. Do people actually still drink that crap, or even worse serve it to their children?
——————————————————————–

Milk should be illegal, banned, or at least regulated with warning labels like cigarettes and other tobacco products.

Dairy products – including all milk products, milk, cheese, cottage cheese, yogurt, kefir, ice-cream, etc. – are related to all kinds of diseases including cardiovascular diseases, autoimmune diseases, cancer, allergies, asthma, digestive diseases, thyroid problems, and neurological diseases.

Milk can cause problems in several ways:
Through sensitivity to the protein casein which creates havoc in our bodies in a similar way that gluten from wheat and other grains does.
Through milk allergies which can juxtapose with the previous problem.
Through lactose intolerance.
through the food livestock eats which can have, among other things, toxic lectins from consumed grains or GMO foods. (Livestock can have hormones, antibiotics, pesticides, infections, etc.)

We were not meant to drink the milk of other animals. As adults we simply should not be consuming dairy.

Besides, milk and its byproducts are disgusting.

https://www.sott.net/article/225467-Why-Milk-Is-So-Evil

#136 dharma bum on 06.14.18 at 9:02 am

“…when my cuffs were wider than my waist and folks were singing “Sugar, Sugar.” – Garth
——————————————————————–

You are my candy girl, and you got me wanting you!

I just can’t believe the loveliness of loving you!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9nE2spOw_o

Pour a little sugar on it, honey!

#137 Doghouse Dweller on 06.14.18 at 9:10 am

#129 Question
example of travel insurance that covers crossing the border
————————————————————————
Manulife Coverme travel insurance

Multi trip Emergency Medical travel insurance : up to 10 days per trip
Deductable : $1000

Cost $69.75 per year.

#138 Agree With Most on 06.14.18 at 9:27 am

dharma bum – 132. There was an intense scientific study brought out last year that most people with lactose intolerance don’t have such at all. In fact, a lady medical expert from Hamilton worked on this study involving thousands. I don’t recall all the facts, but about 73% were cured doing a two week program and this report might come up with a search.

#139 James on 06.14.18 at 9:32 am

Doug Ford promised change, and he’s going to deliver it to more than Ontario. Ford won a landslide victory last week, trouncing the ruling Liberals and stymying a New Democrat surge that faltered in the campaign’s dying days. His Progressive Conservatives won 76 of 124 seats, with 40% of the popular vote—9 percentage points more than the PCs won in 2014. Premier Kathleen Wynne barely held on to her own seat, and resigned as leader after a historic rout that cost her Liberals official party status,change is good! While Ford gained support in every part of the province, his path to victory ran through the greater Toronto region, where he erased the Liberals from the suburban “905” political map and added 11 seats in the city itself. The NDP, while gaining from the Liberal collapse, failed badly in the suburbs, where voters opted overwhelmingly for the PC’s tax-cutting platform as opposed to more tax grabs from the huddled masses. The Green Party won its first Ontario seat, “Meh”. The only green I like is printed on paper!
Even before he forms a cabinet, Ford will have to get to work to address the U.S. tariffs that threaten steelmakers and the auto sector. He’ll then have to craft a budget or economic statement. And while taxes will be the centerpiece — “Ontario is open for business,” he said last night—it’s unclear how he’ll attack the province’s massive debt without rethinking health and education spending. He’ll face equal trouble restructuring gas and hydro prices without first challenging Ottawa’s mandatory carbon pricing plan, something other provinces may want him to do. A court fight may be inevitable, which would position Ford, a rookie on the national stage, as Justin Trudeau’s leading antagonist, “Yea”. All of this in a province where the federal Liberals hold 80 of their 184 seats. Small wonder that with a federal election next year, Ford’s overwhelming victory has everyone wondering about change. Change is good, we will survive the crazy old orange racist bastard down south and forge on regardless of how the NAFTA and trade wars go. Canada has survived two world wars where as a small country where we were still pretty much a colony of mother England. We send 10% of our population to engage in war and survived. The crazy old psychopaths days are limited by simple fact that he is 72 years old. He is not on his “A Game” anymore and he is already on the long decent downhill where Mephistopheles will shake his hand and introduce him to Beelzebub.

This blog is getting scary again. – Garth

#140 Wrk.dover on 06.14.18 at 9:41 am

#129 Question on 06.14.18 at 8:35 am
#116 Doghouse – Give me one detailed cheap example of travel insurance that covers crossing the border to buy gas and groceries for unexpected expensive heath coverage while in USA.

————————————

Public service employee benefit. Free!

#141 James on 06.14.18 at 9:42 am

#101 Home Slice on 06.14.18 at 1:12 am

#31 bdwy sktrn

buy a cottage on the other side, stay the weekend, then come home with savings of;

smokes 65
cigars 50
“other” tobacco 50
scotch 40
amazon po box stuff 30

===========

Hopefully, but I doubt you will have the decency to also take your medical needs across the border as well, once your heavy tobacco starts to take its toll.
It would hardly seem fair to burden this Country with self induced medical problems while saving so much on ciggy butts while ‘sticking it to the man’

@ #79 Stan Brooks – Way to tell it like it is
__________________________________________
I agree you smoke, you cause your own health problems. I don’t want to pay for someone elses stupidity. Smoking is a choice. Thank god Smoking Man has left what he calls Leftie Canada for the USA to live and is never coming back here. His US health insurance can take care of him, if he has it? We wont have to pay for his stupidity. I watched him once on one of his periscopes and the old guy sounded like he was on his deathbed. I actually felt sorry for him. He is an old man that smokes and drinks way too much.

#142 Travel Insurance on 06.14.18 at 9:54 am

Doghouse 134 – Read carefully the terms, limitations, and conditions of said policy very carefully. What do you think will happen if a claim comes in for $75,000 USD for services rendered while you were getting gas and a few groceries?

#143 Another Deckchair on 06.14.18 at 10:05 am

@123 Gravy Train.

Hmmm – true enough, he/she used the plural form of possessive with the apostrophe. (at least with the English version of English – American is different, as we all know – and that’s not meant as an insult in any way)

Canada is a collection of provinces and the odd Territory, so maybe, if one ignores Socks and Co., the original poster may be right. ;-)

#144 Blown Up on 06.14.18 at 10:10 am

The EU free trade deal has just gone poof, because of the new leader from Italy. Now we know why at the G7 meeting the beast and the new leader were all too friendly with each other. The new leader from Italy won’t sign on.

#145 Headhunter on 06.14.18 at 10:15 am

#130 HaHaHa on 06.14.18 at 8:39 am
_______________________________

best articulated statement I have read for quite a bit on why the Millenials are so pissed.

Life long union job with the Railway, pension and retired at 55. Fog a mirror and your hired. Legacy employment. Basically you got lucky. Admit it and move on. hahaha..nice handle

#146 Front Man on 06.14.18 at 10:17 am

Its the Italian farm minister who is attacking Canada over food products and agriculture.

#147 Shawn on 06.14.18 at 10:21 am

QQQ…

TSLA, DBX, NTNX, MU, NVDA

#148 Capitalist on 06.14.18 at 10:24 am

“praising dictators”

Ya, imagine if we gave any praise to guys like Gorbachev or the Chinese communist rulers, that would be crazy. Better to nuke those commies and kill millions then have peace and prosperity. Unless it’s Cuba of course, then it’s ok to have relations.

#149 Smoking Man on 06.14.18 at 10:34 am

T2 got everything he wanted in the nafta talks with Trump.

He sabotaged it. With his approval rating going in the same direction as the detached housing market in Toronto. He wrenched the deal so he could play the victim and bolster his domestic support. This will back fire huge.
T2 and his party are toast. No matter what happens.

He should step aside call an election to save canada..

http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/kevin-libin-trudeau-stumbled-into-a-trade-war-that-isnt-all-trumps-fault/amp?__twitter_impression=true .

#150 Gravy Train on 06.14.18 at 10:56 am

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 06.14.18 at 8:23 am
“You seem to be in a quandary over Quassa. No need to quarrel. Quaff some beer. Quality vs quantity. Time for a Qualuude?

Then head down under on Qantas! :)

#151 Commander Bone Spurs on 06.14.18 at 11:02 am

At your service .. reporting for duty… finally.. oh shit wrong side!

https://politicalwire.com/2018/06/14/trump-salutes-north-korean-general/

#152 torontorocks on 06.14.18 at 11:10 am

#89 AMEN!

#153 IHCTD9 on 06.14.18 at 11:10 am

#142 Headhunter on 06.14.18 at 10:15 am
#130 HaHaHa on 06.14.18 at 8:39 am
_______________________________

best articulated statement I have read for quite a bit on why the Millenials are so pissed.

Life long union job with the Railway, pension and retired at 55. Fog a mirror and your hired. Legacy employment. Basically you got lucky. Admit it and move on. hahaha..nice handle
_____

We just lost a young 24 year old to the railway – lured by more money, better benefits and a pension. He is probably set for life at this job, and could probably retire after 31 years at 55 no problem.

Are Millennials pissed at this young kid too?

#154 James on 06.14.18 at 11:19 am

Just in, The New York attorney general is suing President Donald Trump’s charitable foundation along with its directors — the President, his sons Eric and Donald Jr. and daughter Ivanka, alleging they violated state and federal charities law.
Attorney General Barbara Underwood alleges a pattern of persistent illegal conduct over more than a decade that includes extensive unlawful political coordination with the Trump presidential campaign.

#155 Doghouse Dweller on 06.14.18 at 11:28 am

#139 Travel Insurance
———————————-
What`s with the paranoia ?

Emergency Medical Insurance covers you for up to
$10,000,000 CDN of covered expenses incurred by
you as a result of treatment required by you
during your trip if a medical emergency begins unexpectedly after you
leave home.
Ya, you might have to get a lawyer as you would when dealing with any large insurance claim. But I`m not going to stop living and hide in the
basement because of some ” What if ? ” scenario.

At least I travel with insurance coverage. Most folks roll the dice and don`t even bother.

#156 AB Boxster on 06.14.18 at 11:32 am

#146 Smoking Man on 06.14.18 at 10:34 am

——————————————-
So according to this article Trump actually gave Trudeau the ‘sunset clause’ concession that is so important to Canada, and then T2 decides that its a great idea to diss the president in a news conference following the meeting.

Wow.
What a great negotiator we have for Canada.

#157 SimplyPut7 on 06.14.18 at 11:36 am

#131 IHCTD9 on 06.14.18 at 8:45 am

Vancouver and Toronto are relying too much on the younger generations and immigration to fix their debt problems, they remind me of California where the population growth is slowing because of people moving to places that have cheaper housing, lower taxes and a better quality of life.

I think the same will happen in larger cities in Canada as younger generations get fed up with expensive big city life and immigrants move to places that are more affordable and have better work-life balance to raise children.

#158 Hospital Costs USA on 06.14.18 at 11:51 am

Here is a hypothetical for an example. Your walking and some jerk hits you with his car, and your hip is damaged, so its off in an ambulance to the hospital. An operation takes place, and the good news is that your hospital stay is just 4 days. They feed you well, and the nurses are smiling which is uplifting your spirits. The computer system adds up your bill – $110,000 USD as CAD is not accepted. Be afraid when you cross the border for gas and a few groceries; this is a true story.

#159 Gravy Train on 06.14.18 at 11:51 am

#140 Another Deckchair on 06.14.18 at 10:05 am
“Hmmm – true enough, he/she used the plural form of possessive with the apostrophe … the original poster may be right.”

No, sorry, that doesn’t cut it, either. In that case we’d use the word their. :)
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/their

#160 Stan Brooks on 06.14.18 at 12:03 pm

#146 Smoking Man on 06.14.18 at 10:34 am

No it will not backfire. It will boost his rating as the man fighting for Canada. While they derail it with 2 faced lies.

I would not be surprised if Trump offered the removal of the sunset clause for NAFTA which would pretty mush say done deal and then got back stabbed.

And what in hell is doing C.F. in US with that finance french villa guy, amazing that he is still financial minister), trying to split the republicans and win support for Canada while derailing it with her and T2 stunts?

Smokie, you underestimate the exceptional stupidity of the populace here. T2 will come out from this as a fighter for Canada.
And eventually get his UN seat from his globalist friends.

While leaving the sheeple to count on the generosity of CPP and Poloz.

Again, cost of living up 8 – 10 %. CPI at sub 2 %. BoC rates at 1.25% And that BoC boss’s smile tells it all. hes i pretty much laughing at the stupid.

#161 Gravy Train on 06.14.18 at 12:04 pm

#146 Smoking Man on 06.14.18 at 10:34 am
“T2 got everything he wanted in the [NAFTA] talks with Trump. He sabotaged it.”

Trump slapped tariffs on each of the other G7 nations, just shortly before attending the G7 summit on trade! How is that not sabotage? What world are you living in, Smokey? Are you under heavy medication?

#162 conan on 06.14.18 at 12:07 pm

#146 Smoking Man on 06.14.18 at 10:34 am

As usual, I am going to 100% fade, what you think on all matters political.

Trump is the master of his down fall. The G7 reaction to his “cray cray” tariffs are targeted tariffs which will help turn Red States, Blue, in the November Mid terms.

The main engine of Trump’s downfall will always be his behavior. He is off the scale in this regard, and he set off the klaxons at the G 7.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzRM4baAHeA

#163 crossbordershopper on 06.14.18 at 12:11 pm

what people are talking about cross border shopping, great, you will soon be living there, not just visiting to buy skippy peanut butter(not available in canuckstand). Its not just cheap gas or smokes or booze but a tone of variety and selection not available. Canada is a discount market and the local market really isnt worthy of huge selection and lower pricing. We dont have the scale.
A couple of canadian dollars more doesnt move the needle to an american multi national.
Simply go south, do whatever you have to do, lie to them at the border your just going shopping for the day go with your wife even book a hotel room and show them and they will pass you no questions asked. but you never return.
i will walk you through the paperwork once in the usa.
inner company visa etc. business visitor visa etc. its all simple.
or you can stay in Canada, with high costs and taxes and everything. I know you have family and friends here, sure, i do too. just visit often.

#164 Shawn Allen on 06.14.18 at 12:28 pm

Teranet House Price Index

…seems to be almost as unpopular with Garth as I am…

It can of course be legitimately criticized. Its results suffer from lag when things move quickly. (Though I don’t see a lot of lag in the parts where the index value rose most rapidly). In any case it is one of the few indexes of existing home price values available and it is done on a consistent and mathematical basis. Surely it has much value even if it can’t tell you where home prices will go in future and some would argue it does not do a great job of telling you where they went in the last three months or year. So a better index is?

Here is a video that explains the basics of their methodology.

https://housepriceindex.ca/video/hpi-methodology/

#165 Tip For Shopping on 06.14.18 at 12:58 pm

The larger grocery stores today have a variety of diary type products and other food products. Target the store of your choice and know what is available. Watch the flyer on-line carefully to see the deals being offered for any given week. We have no exchange rate on CAD, as USD becomes expensive. Go in and buy the items that you perceive as expensive, and grab the loss leaders for 1/2 price or better, and walk out as this balances things out in the end. In fact, you can do this every week and rip them off like I do.

#166 Smoking Man on 06.14.18 at 1:00 pm

AB Boxster on 06.14.18 at 11:32 am
#146 Smoking Man on 06.14.18 at 10:34 am

——————————————-
So according to this article Trump actually gave Trudeau the ‘sunset clause’ concession that is so important to Canada, and then T2 decides that its a great idea to diss the president in a news conference following the meeting.

Wow.
What a great negotiator we have for Canada.
………

That’s exactly what happened. You go around pretending to be girl, with fake eyebrows, sorry but when its time to man up. No one is buying it. Espacisly the man sitting across from you at the negotiating table.

T2 Dilibratly tossed Canada under to bus, knowing that Ontario went all blue with ford.

It’s a stupid gamble that will ultimately destroy Canada as you all know it . and he won’t get re elected. People Kind, India and Carbo tax nailed his political coffin shut .

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomincs

#167 KLNR on 06.14.18 at 1:07 pm

@#127 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 06.14.18 at 8:33 am
$Eight Hundred Million was what Trudeau spent on the G7 meeting here i Canada. My God. That our hard earned tax money. Why can’t they just stream each other. Surely we don’t need to fly them here, feed them, secure them, and house them. All the people I talk too are just as pissed as I am. Someone should run over him with a truck and them back up and run over him again. Set an example of what happens to people who spend money they don’t have and money our grandchildren will be paying on stupid interest payments…… He is worse than Trump.
________________________

Agreed, yuge waste of $$$.
Hope you were just as upset when harper spent well over a billion on it during his term. Maybe we should be thanking T2 for dialing it back a bit lol

#168 bdwy sktrn on 06.14.18 at 1:18 pm

#155 Hospital Costs USA on 06.14.18 at 11:51 am
Here is a hypothetical for an example. Your walking and some jerk hits you with his car, and your hip is damaged, so its off in an ambulance to the hospital. An operation takes place, and the good news is that your hospital stay is just 4 days. They feed you well, and the nurses are smiling which is uplifting your spirits. The computer system adds up your bill – $110,000 USD
———————————-
overnight stays are the killer, for sure but they
could have come home for just a busted hip.

another true story – about 10 yrs ago the kid falls and breaks elbow in vegas. hospital/xray/doctors and nurses/and a cast – looong wait then maybe 3 hours in a room. was expecting a hefty bill, instead it was peanuts, like 350ish.

———————–
in the markets….another awesome day as sockboy and crygirl stir the trade pot in DC to keep the loonie in freefall.
usd assets are the easy, obvious and only ones from here on in. CAD bloodbath unavoidable.
costco 205usd – love it!!!

maybe chrystia and justin can have a good cry together and then do a painting or poem to express their butthurt feelings

#169 Headhunter on 06.14.18 at 1:21 pm

#150 IHCTD9 on 06.14.18 at 11:10 am

______________________________________
Work fatalities are never good, saw my share when I wrenched with the tools. My condolences for the lads family.

You know where I was going with it and your just trying to be cute and clever by “muddying the waters”

Life long legacy union defined pension employment for many boomers. Yet keep ranting on how hard it was… I like ya IHCTD9 so I’ll stop there.

#170 Tater on 06.14.18 at 1:26 pm

#81 tccontrarian on 06.13.18 at 10:13 pm
Some numbers:

A typical ‘balanced’ portfolio with 8% annualized average return, over 20 years:

Year
1 100,000 8% 8,000
2 108,000 8% 8,640
3 116,640 8% 9,331
4 125,971 8% 10,078
5 136,049 8% 10,884
6 146,933 8% 11,755
7 158,687 8% 12,695
8 171,382 8% 13,711
9 185,093 8% 14,807
10 199,900 8% 15,992
11 215,892 8% 17,271
12 233,164 8% 18,653
13 251,817 8% 20,145
14 271,962 8% 21,757
15 293,719 8% 23,498
16 317,217 8% 25,377
17 342,594 8% 27,408
18 370,002 8% 29,600
19 399,602 8% 31,968
20 431,570 8% 34,526

Four ‘losing’ years as indicated -5%, -10%, -20%, with one BIG year of 250% every 5, for 20 years, as above:

Year
1 100,000 -0.05% (50)
2 99,950 -20.00% (19,990)
3 79,960 -10.00% (7,996)
4 71,964 -10.00% (7,196)
5 64,768 250% 161,919
6 226,687 -0.05% (113)
7 226,573 -20.00% (45,315)
8 181,259 -10.00% (18,126)
9 163,133 -10.00% (16,313)
10 146,819 250% 367,049
11 513,868 -0.05% (257)
12 513,611 -20.00% (102,722)
13 410,889 -10.00% (41,089)
14 369,800 -10.00% (36,980)
15 332,820 250% 832,050
16 1,164,870 -0.05% (582)
17 1,164,288 -20.00% (232,858)
18 931,430 -10.00% (93,143)
19 838,287 -10.00% (83,829)
20 754,458 250% 1,886,146

Clearly, IF (a big “if”) one is willing to have 3-4 ‘losing’ years but ‘set-up’ for the big moves, only once every 5 years or so, the difference is yuuuuge!

Of course, no guarantees that you’ll get the ‘big’ move every 5 years – so for illustrative purposes only.

TCC
—————————————————————–

Some stunning insights here. Who would have thought a strategy with a CAGR of 17.6% would outperform an 8% return.

More nonsense from TCC.

#171 T2 on 06.14.18 at 1:32 pm

The sunset clause gift may have been conditional upon something that was never disclosed in that article. I say it might have been a bait and switch scam. In any case the beast cannot be trusted, as his words mean nothing. T2 may in fact have done the right thing, so too early to judge the PM on this event.

#172 IHCTD9 on 06.14.18 at 2:03 pm

#154 SimplyPut7 on 06.14.18 at 11:36 am
#131 IHCTD9 on 06.14.18 at 8:45 am

Vancouver and Toronto are relying too much on the younger generations and immigration to fix their debt problems, they remind me of California where the population growth is slowing because of people moving to places that have cheaper housing, lower taxes and a better quality of life.

I think the same will happen in larger cities in Canada as younger generations get fed up with expensive big city life and immigrants move to places that are more affordable and have better work-life balance to raise children.
____________________________________

Looks like you’re right, and it’s already been going on for a while:

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/03/01/canadians-leaving-major-cities_n_15080726.html

Locals are bailing, while foreign folks fill the gap and provide 100% of the population growth. It’s too expensive, old stock Canadians have the option to bail for less expensive areas without any real negatives – especially if retiring. Most newcomers are stuck in an enclave for at least a generation before they feel comfortable/Canadian enough to spread their wings.

I fully expect the portion of actual born Canadians in the GTA to keep dwindling down until only the elite of this group remains. Everyone else will have been born elsewhere – mostly the 3rd world/developing nations. Wages will probably keep sliding against the cost of living as well.

Keep in mind a big chunk of immigrants bail out of Canada within 10 years of showing up too – up to 40% according to some studies. Many feel they’re not getting ahead, and pastures are looking greener elsewhere.

Maybe some of them are getting wise as to their true purpose here. Maybe they’re asking why Canada’s largest city has a substantial lack of actual Canadians living in it?

Interesting for a guy like me to see that the favorite destination for every big city exodus listed in that article is small town Ontario. I wonder why? Have they been reading the comments section here at the GF? :)

IMHO, someday in the future, getting 3rd world immigrants to come to the GTA will be as hard as getting 1st world immigrants today.

So what happens then?

#173 Siddelly on 06.14.18 at 2:04 pm

# 127 Cherry Blossom

“Someone should run over him with a truck and them back up and run over him again.”

Have the men in the black Escalade with the dark suits and sunglasses visited you at your workplace already?

800 million based on what?

According to the G7 website, the total approved funding for the whole year of Canada’s presidency of the 2018 G7 is $604.5 million. That figures goes beyond just the Charlevoix summit.
It applies to the planning, execution and security for all the G7-related meetings and events over the year.

#174 HaHaHa on 06.14.18 at 2:06 pm

#150 If the kid can hack the rails he will earn that pension. On call 24/7. 2hr notice to be there. don’t be late. no weekends off. on duty sometimes 10 to 18 hrs. Its cold at -35 at any given night. One slip you can lose a leg or your life. Oh and as a matter of fact I walked away from a job to which I would make 150 grand this year. The kids at work aka millenials love me cause I planned and left them the opportunity to advance. Not some deadbeat old fart who needed to keep working to pay for crap like sports cars and motorbikes and larger houses. #142 should be pissed. too effing dumb to read the entire post and too chicken shit to apply at a mans job. Oh lots of women hired on the rails too. hahahahaha

#175 Doug in London on 06.14.18 at 2:08 pm

@ Ace Goodheart, post #71:
That’s quite consistent with my observations. It’s a given that Donald Trump doesn’t give a damn about how tariffs will affect Canadians, but it’s equally true he doesn’t care about how it will negatively affect Americans. To him his desire for revenge is just a game, just like on the pseudo reality garbage show he was on years ago.

#176 Overheardyou on 06.14.18 at 2:09 pm

#80 Stan Brooks on 06.13.18 at 10:06 pm

Just an fyi, robots and automation are meant to assist human workers. Not take their jobs. Look to Japan, advanced robotics have not destroyed their workforce. What you’re forgetting is it is difficult to program menial tasks and common sense into robots and AI. We’re still a long way off.

#177 M on 06.14.18 at 2:31 pm

DELETED

#178 Newcomer on 06.14.18 at 2:32 pm

#160 crossbordershopper on 06.14.18 at 12:11 pm
Leaving aside that Skippy peanut butter has 10% added sugar and modified vegetable oils and tastes awful, this is probably the worst immigration advice ever given: “lie to them at the border … but you never return ….”

You cannot get a US work visa if you entered the US for non-work purposes, and if you are ever caught lying to a border agent, going forward, you won’t even be let in for peanut butter shopping trips.

#179 trendo on 06.14.18 at 2:44 pm

The only responsibility Trump has in the rate hikes is that they now have a fall guy for when everything collapse. They can raise rate, collapse the system 2008 style and blame it on Trump.

They raised rate once during Obama 8 years and 6 times since Trump was Elected.

#180 Gravy Train on 06.14.18 at 2:49 pm

#89 AB Boxster on 06.13.18 at 10:45 pm
“Trump has an economic agenda to make America and Americans better off.”

Does it not bother you in the least that he’s abrogated his responsibility as leader of the free world, that he verbally attacks the leaders of nations who make up the free world, and that he coddles and praises third-world dictators?

For greater clarity, when I say free world, I mean that part of the world where freedom, democracy and capitalism or moderate socialism—rather than totalitarian or Communist political and economic systems—prevail.

Do you approve of Trump’s xenophobia, nativism, protectionism, jingoism and ultra-nationalism? What are your thoughts on authoritarian regimes? Do you approve of fascism, neo-Nazis and white supremacy? Just curious!

#181 Damifino on 06.14.18 at 2:50 pm

#165 bdwy sktrn

maybe chrystia and justin can have a good cry together and then do a painting or poem to express their butthurt feelings
———————————

I think it’s a mistake to paint Chrystia Freeland and Justin with the same brush. I don’t like the Liberal party much but Freeland seems to have more grit and courage than her boss. After hearing the content of her speech in the USA I’ve gained a new respect. If we must have a Liberal government, she’d make a better PM.

#182 Peanut Butter on 06.14.18 at 3:09 pm

This can be made at home with a blender, and you can buy peanuts at a bulk food store or a farmers co-op. A couple of easy products can be made at home such as mustard, and horseradish. Canning product is another option as the major chains load up on boxes of jars and all that is needed starting in September or sooner. Lots of crop produce can be bought, and the best deals come from the Amish by the bushel basket size. Any horseradish in jars can be frozen too.

#183 Dogman01 on 06.14.18 at 3:11 pm

#91 islander on 06.13.18 at 10:48 pm

Everyone should read this:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/13/trump-nafta-g7-sunset-clause-trade-agreement

“When this devious, hollow, self-interested man offers a better approximation of the people’s champion than any other leader, you know democracy is in trouble.”

#184 Lee on 06.14.18 at 3:53 pm

CMHC confirms today that dip in home prices won’t last long. So buy now or buy never!

#185 Seek and Find on 06.14.18 at 3:55 pm

There are some wholesale companies that don’t care if you have a business to buy. I have done this from time to time, and you wouldn’t believe what they are selling. There are exceptions, but if you have a friend in the restaurant or variety store business you might be in luck. One of the largest trading companies in North America is based in Toronto with 5 warehouses in Toronto, Montreal, and New Jersey. You can buy boxes of canned goods, and hundreds of products from all over the world especially spices. They have been in business for over 40 years, and have all the certificates required for manufacturing organic or anything else.

#186 Joe Bloggs on 06.14.18 at 3:59 pm

#177 Gravy Train on 06.14.18 at 2:49 pm
You sound like a typical statist thug. What is your opinion on supply managenent and G20 police crackdown in Toronto 2010? Just curious.

#187 Jonathan on 06.14.18 at 4:31 pm

SilverSon on 06.13.18 at 8:13 pm
#55 Jonathan on 06.13.18 at 7:56 pm

Ugh, that’s smuggling dude. You’re not supposed to have anything acquired in the US when using Nexus.

—————

Ugh, you’re wrong, dude. You have to declare any and all purchases, which I do, including the gasoline I put into my car. NEXUS doesn’t limit you from importing anything at the border. Heck, I bought a boat in Washington two weeks ago and went through the NEXUS line with it, and declared it, and paid my taxes on it.

From the NEXUS website:

“As a member of NEXUS, it is your responsibility to report all goods being imported. NEXUS members are subject to the same reporting requirements for goods as non-NEXUS travellers.”

Apparently you don’t have NEXUS or you’d know all of this.

The only things I can’t bring through the NEXUS line are prohibited, restricted or controlled items (firearms, for instance) and commercial goods.

#188 Jonathan Curlett on 06.14.18 at 4:39 pm

#70 mike from mtl on 06.13.18 at 9:14 pm
#55 Jonathan on 06.13.18 at 7:56 pm
RE: Crossing the border to gas up

Err ok, granted but here’s the real savings, not spending in the first place! I know stupid, right?

Why purchase what is probably consumerist crap to begin with, wasting your time and life trying to save a few bucks? For sure we get hosed up north I concede but if you don’t purchase, who cares. Sort of like 25% off ‘sale’, but 100% off if not buying in the first place.

Other than rent, food, booze, services (mobile, internet, hydro) and toiletries (in that order) I haven’t purchased a single ‘thing’ for the last three months.

Other than the corpos, who needs NEEDS this crap?

Besides, it’s illegal. – Garth

————–
Did someone turn out the lights? Can no one read what I actually wrote?

I said I buy gasoline (a necessity) and car parts (for repairing my vehicles). I had to do new brakes on the van a few months ago and parts were half price in the USA. I couldn’t even buy R-134a to recharge my car’s A/C in Canada, so I had to buy that across the border ($11). I bought the clutch compressor relay for $9 that would’ve been $37 in Canada (!). Yeah, 75% savings right there.

There’s nothing illegal about buying goods, declaring them at the border, and bringing them in. I don’t know where you (or Garth or anyone) gets a contrary idea. Believe me, I declare everything because I value my NEXUS border-crossing priveleges (we have lots of friends in the USA, so it saves us a ton of time when visiting them).

And before you tee off on my cars, one is 10 years old and one is 8 years old, both paid off, both with over 200K kms, well-used, well-maintained and I have no plan to replace them anytime soon.

Nice rant but completely inapplicable to me. Thanks for playing, though!

#189 Jonathan Curlett on 06.14.18 at 4:44 pm

Re: 55 on 06.13.18 at 10:35 pm
What do you drive: a tank?

In a typical car you save 5 bucks going to Point Roberts to fill up.

Are you one of those guys filling up 50 gas cans?

I see it every time. Then you are saving $2400 a year. In fact you could start selling it to your friends and make money.

Border agents apparently don’t care about this going on.

Wait, who am I kidding. If you are from Vancouver you will lie to the border agent just like you lie to the CRA about your illegal basement suite.

It is only soft fraud right?

It is for the kids.

———–

I drive a car and my wife is a stay-at-home mom and drives our van. A tank of gas in the van is over $100 now, in Canada, and it’s about $70 in the USA. Point Roberts is way more expensive than Blaine/Bellingham/Ferndale. I save typically $0.30 per liter buying in the USA (sometimes more).

I don’t fill up any loose gasoline cans – that’d just smell up the vehicles. I believe you’re limited to 25L at a time, anyways.

I declare everything I buy. The border guards don’t care about gasoline and it’s perfectly legal to go fill up.

I moved to Vancouver in early 2017. I don’t own property (I rent, for half what it’d cost me to buy). I don’t have an illegal basement suite.

I’ve been following Garth since I moved here and concur with his conclusions about real estate and have stayed out of the market for that reason.

Thanks for playing. I hope your angst dies down after you read this post.

#190 IHCTD9 on 06.14.18 at 5:17 pm

#166 Headhunter on 06.14.18 at 1:21 pm
#150 IHCTD9 on 06.14.18 at 11:10 am

______________________________________
Work fatalities are never good, saw my share when I wrenched with the tools. My condolences for the lads family.

You know where I was going with it and your just trying to be cute and clever by “muddying the waters”

Life long legacy union defined pension employment for many boomers. Yet keep ranting on how hard it was… I like ya IHCTD9 so I’ll stop there.
——

I meant lost as is they stole him from us :). Full blown machinist for only 2 years, and he left the trade for the big bucks. Can’t blame him though, young tradespeoplekind are hard to keep these days. This kid is cut from the same cloth as me, and he’s going to do great. Kid has that rare ability to delay gratification.

The point was, back in the day folks had advantages, kids today have them too, just different ones. I’ve listed many on the comments here.

I don’t have a pension, I won’t be retiring from the same company I started at, but I might still retire at 55 anyway. The wife and I made a plan and stuck to it with saving and investing. Millennials can do the same as we did. It’s all how you play the hand you’ve been dealt. Don’t necessarily need a carbon copy of what the boomers got to end up at the finish line in good shape.

Luck is great if you got it, but not a requirement.

#191 AB Boxster on 06.14.18 at 6:08 pm

#177 Gravy Train on 06.14.18 at 2:49 pm

Does it not bother you in the least that he’s abrogated his responsibility as leader of the free world, that he verbally attacks the leaders of nations who make up the free world, and that he coddles and praises third-world dictators?

For greater clarity, when I say free world, I mean that part of the world where freedom, democracy and capitalism or moderate socialism—rather than totalitarian or Communist political and economic systems—prevail.

Do you approve of Trump’s xenophobia, nativism, protectionism, jingoism and ultra-nationalism? What are your thoughts on authoritarian regimes? Do you approve of fascism, neo-Nazis and white supremacy? Just curious!
——————————
My goodness, where to start.


Does it not bother you in the least that he’s abrogated his responsibility as leader of the free world.

Nope. Trump made it clear that he wants to be the leader of the USA.
Why does America need to be the leader of the free world?
How about Trudeau and Canada?
Maybe we should pay for NATO ad the UN for a while.
Doesn’t the world need more virtue signalling and appologies?


that he verbally attacks the leaders of nations who make up the free world

Trump attacks the hypocrisy of leaders who call for free trade, but have their own internal barriers. That support the Paris agreement only if the US pays the bill. That support UN anti Isreal propoganda, but have the worst human rights records of their own.
That chastize the US spending on NATO, but seem unwilling to spend their own money to protect their own countries.

Seems reasonable to me.


that he coddles and praises third-world dictators?

You mean like how he has coddled Cuba and Iran and Syria and China and ISIS?


Do you approve of Trump’s xenophobia, nativism, protectionism, jingoism and ultra-nationalism? What are your thoughts on authoritarian regimes? Do you approve of fascism, neo-Nazis and white supremacy? Just curious!

Do you approve of open borders for all, of unrestricted and uncontrolled immigration? Do you believe take pride in your own countries strong democratic values, freedom of speech, history and traditions – you know, patriotism.

Do you believe that western cultural values (rule of law, democracy, freedom of speech, individual rights, etc) are worth supporting and protecting.

Do you approve of Marxist and communist theory?

Do you support ultraleft wing ANTIFA and are you a member of Black lives Matter?

Just curious!

#192 Smoking Man on 06.14.18 at 7:11 pm

188 AB Boxster on 06.14.18 at 6:08 pm

You ownd Gravy Train with your comment from yesterday.
Can’t wait for the Rubbatal. Same globalist liberal taking point.

#193 Shirley Anderson on 06.15.18 at 12:36 am

I don’t see how housing can lose value when people in Vancouver and Victoria can’t even find places to rent due to a critical housing shortage. Housing is in such short supply landlords can ask for whatever they can get, and rents have gone way, way up in the last 4 or 5 years, probably by 50%. Renters can’t move. With immigration and other things driving up the demand, people will resort to buying. Hope I’m wrong about that, but where are people supposed to live?!

#194 Gravy Train on 06.15.18 at 7:39 am

#186 Joe Bloggs on 06.14.18 at 3:59 pm
“You sound like a typical statist thug.”

No, I merely parroted what Garth has been saying for months now. Do you read his blog at all? :)