The latest

Will rates jump again in May?

Nope, says Mr. Market. Ain’t gonna happen. The latest economic stats (out on Friday) were more tepid than the rate bulls had expected. So, a weaker inflation number caused the dollar to slump and the odds of another set of mortgage increases to wither from 40% to 28%. Having said that, markets are still giving big odds to increases in July and October – adding a half point to the prime, lines of credit, VRMs and five-year loans. In fact increased yields in the bond market over the last few weeks probably foretell fatter mortgages to come.

The bottom line(s): Variable-rate mortgages will remain bargain-priced (as explained here last week) for a considerable period to come. Canada’s yield curve has inverted in the long end, which is just as uncomfortable as it sounds. The cost of borrowing will continue to increase, but this is likely to be a long and drawn-out process. Might as well have a cheap VRM in the meantime, and make more of every payment go to principal.

Anyone with a GIC, like blog dog Jean, should also take note. She and Gerard have over a million saved as they head into retirement, thanks to a Big Job in the oil patch. But a whack is in GICs, locked up for years at 2.5% in a non-registered account. “I am so-o-o nervous,” she says. “Just can’t stand the thought of losing anything.”

Fair enough. But the inflation rate is 2.2%, and rising. Worse, G makes good money and is in the near-50% tax bracket. So, yes, they are losing wealth – every single month. Worse, GICs generate phantom returns – interest on which you must pay annual tax even before you receive it (at maturity). And in retirement they provide no income stream, as does a balanced portfolio of ETFs from which a taxless flow in the form of return of capital can be enjoyed.

But I digress.

Two more hikes this year in Canada. Two or three more in the US. No recession on the horizon, and little threat of a pullback in US markets. Meanwhile Canadian equities are cheap and unloved (like me) and likely to remain so until after the Ontario election, NAFTA is decided, and a pipeline rammed up the Horgan.

$    $    $

So this house costs $500,000 in Orlando. It has 3,600 square feet of living space, and costs less than $140 a foot. Compare that to $1,000 a foot in Toronto for an upscale downtown condo, about $820 a foot for the average unit, and $1,210 for houses on Vancouver’s Westside.

US real estate costs a fraction of that in Canada, despite Americans having a similar median household income and comparable interest rates. US income taxes are less in most states (but not ones like NY or Cali), mortgage interest is somewhat deductible and the home ownership rate, at 64%, remains considerably below that of Canada. US citizens own about three times more equities in their retirement plans and we do, and the household debt ratio is steeply less than it was in 2005, while ours increases every quarter. In short, Canadians have chosen a one-asset, highly-leveraged financial strategy leading to a wild price inflation and enhanced risk. Plus you don’t get to live in a house like this.

Want to see what five hundred grand buys – from a tiny NY City apartment to a southern palace? Here is the link.

$   $   $

So if prices are falling and peak house is in the rear view mirror in the GTA and Vancouver, why aren’t listings flooding on to the market? In fact, in Toronto, why are they falling? The number of new ones dropped almost 25% last month, compared to April of last year – so this is roughly equal to the tumble in sales.

The result is price resistance. Fewer buyers chasing fewer listings means supply and demand are balanced with no precipitous valuation plunge. At least, not overall. In certain areas this blog has previously identified (the outer ring of particleboard McMansions) it’s a different story. Scant buyers, more sellers, desperation and 25% drops in sale prices.

In general, why are homeowners not going to market during what’s always been the strongest selling season of the year?

“They’re holding out because they think the market is going to turn around,” says a TD economist. That’s the conventional view, being shared by house-humping realtor web sites and the real estate cartel. But there’s more. Lots of people lives in houses they could not afford to buy – especially with the B20 mortgage stress test now in place. If they sold they’d have to purchase, exposing themselves to those onerous financial requirements. People moving down into lesser properties might not care, but those selling so they can climb the property ladder face two big obstacles – high asking prices (close to peak house) and qualifying for financing at 5.34% or better.

So there you go. Another unintended consequence of government diddling in the marketplace. Makes this $499,000 house in Baltimore look even sweeter.

121 comments ↓

#1 mike from mtl on 05.20.18 at 2:58 pm

Told you, rates are not going up.

Poloz the putz is delaying as long as possible and the FED is losing steam – let’s see if they even do once more this year.

#2 Gyga on 05.20.18 at 3:00 pm

People in GTA are just nuts

#3 Millennial905er on 05.20.18 at 3:01 pm

I’m sold. Anyone have any tips on how a Canadian can legitimately move permanently to the US? Last I heard we weren’t exactly welcome.

#4 polecat on 05.20.18 at 3:11 pm

I find the older I get the less house and stuff I need. Looking forward to downsizing and enjoying the little things.

#5 EmmEmm on 05.20.18 at 3:21 pm

NO stress test here !!

https://imgur.com/a/BdGJrnI

#6 Dead Cat Bounce on 05.20.18 at 3:31 pm

This cats really beginning to wonder if it will ever end ? Poloz is a sheep at the wheel, the big banks are keeping the low rates down to keep this whole thing going. In the Okanagan listings by the Shysters are being listed $100K plus over BC Assessment ! Really starting to puss me off !

#7 Stan Brooks on 05.20.18 at 3:55 pm

Well we have 4 million dollar homes in BC that were worth 40 k in 1970-es on which people can not pa the taxes.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/owners-multimillion-dollar-vancouver-home-080004450.html

#8 North Burnaby on 05.20.18 at 4:06 pm

Wherever I go, I keep on seeing SOLD signs for condos

#9 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.20.18 at 4:07 pm

The bottom line(s): Variable-rate mortgages will remain bargain-priced (as explained here last week) for a considerable period to come.
…………………………

Finally we agree. As stated here before in my pathetic comments, interest rates will be kept as low as possible for as long as possible. You can call them short term or you can call them long term or you can call them variable but I call them what they are which is LOW. And they are gonna stay low. Think decades…….Hi Yo Silverrrr…..Away !!!

#10 It's called Hoarding on 05.20.18 at 4:08 pm

Sophisticated market manipulation at work.
In other words,buy at the current market price or piss off.

I always to told you rates won’t be going up because it would screw Canadians.

How cute you responded or that I was a moron.

Are you going to appoligze? Of course not.
You’d have to be a man first.

#11 Game Over on 05.20.18 at 4:46 pm

Unfortunately, it doesn’t take much these days for central banks to back track on rates. It only takes one statement and the odds can change. Even with inflation running at 2.3%, I am sure a lot of people are losing money on cost of living. Poloz can afford a measly.25% increase, yet he just wants to kick the can down the road as long as possible. Meanwhile HELOC and debt growth are double, even triple inflation. What a joke..

#12 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 05.20.18 at 4:48 pm

Great post Garth. Happy Sunday long weekend everyone. I liked Garth’s point about supply & demand being in balance.

“The result is price resistance. Fewer buyers chasing fewer listings means supply and demand are balanced with no precipitous valuation plunge.”

It is always interesting and curious to me though. We apply supply and demand to every other facet of economics but somehow we’re expected to believe that if we dramatically over-supply the labour market, it’s not going to suppress wages? Just a thought! Or maybe… that was the intention all along.

Anyways ill leave this here for your consideration.

Entering the long weekend, the PC lead evaporates as NDP momentum builds.
http://onpulse.ca/blog/entering-the-long-weekend-the-pc-lead-evaporates-as-ndp-momentum-builds

#13 Eurovision on 05.20.18 at 4:52 pm

So let me get this straight, a condo in V&T has same value as a condo in NY??

#14 Someone explain on 05.20.18 at 4:58 pm

“Fair enough. But the inflation rate is 2.2%, and rising. Worse, G makes good money and is in the near-50% tax bracket. So, yes, they are losing wealth – every single month. Worse, GICs generate phantom returns – interest on which you must pay annual tax even before you receive it (at maturity). And in retirement they provide no income stream, as does a balanced portfolio of ETFs from which a taxless flow in the form of return of capital.”

Speaking of phantom returns I looked up a portfolio of BMO covered call ETFs which actually shows an income stream of 6% or so, as Mr Turners has been saying – but a large portion of that is return of capital which reduces market value of the original investment by a large amount. Then when you deduct the 1% advisor fee – if you’re lucky you might get an overall yield of 2% & the underlying asset of the ETFs is of course the stock market.

Why would you buy an asset that gives you some of your money back and calls it income? To justify fees? Financial engineering anyone?

#15 Eurovision on 05.20.18 at 5:01 pm

Something is seriously wrong here..

#16 Cto on 05.20.18 at 5:03 pm

PoloZ will keep rates low for the rest of his term. It will eventually destroy the Canadian economy, but he will have cleared out by then, he will point the finger at the next clown.

#17 For those about to flop... on 05.20.18 at 5:19 pm

Pink Pollen falling in New Westminster.

These guys held onto the dream of making a profit on this flip since last November, but now they are just trying to get a mop and bucket and clean up this spill.

They paid 1.02 March 2017 and went for a quick turnaround ,but now they see the graffiti on the wall.

Detached?

It’s Amess…

M43BC

507 Amess Street, New Westminster paid 1.02 March 2017 ass1.06

Nov 3:$1,288,888
May 18: $1,099,888
Change: – 189000.00 -15%

https://www.zolo.ca/new-westminster-real-estate/507-amess-street

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzVUxWWA==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#18 Myra Andrews on 05.20.18 at 5:38 pm

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul Boenisch

May 18 New 226 Sold 119 TI 11,208
May 17 New 191 Sold 110 TI 11,161
May 16 New 235 Sold 147 TI 11,133
May 15 New 315 Sold 178 TI 11,127
May 14 New 302 Sold 124 TI 11,052

May 11 New 183 Sold 132 TI 10,935
May 10 New 229 Sold 126 TI 10,957
May 9 New 309 Sold 172 TI 10,914
May 8 New 318 Sold 117 TI 10,835
May 7 New 389 Sold 131 TI 10,697

May 4 New 191 Sold 110 TI 10,540
May 3 New 213 Sold 103 TI 10,503
May 2 New 268 Sold 146 TI 10,481
May 1 New 363 Sold 134 TI 10,420
Apr 30 New 375 Sold 163 TI 10,459

April 16-27 New 2453 Sold 1224 TI 10,347
April 3-13 New 2111 Sold 916 TI 9,727

Mar 19-29 New 1834 Sold 1072 TI 9,032
Mar 5-16 New 2248 Sold 1224 TI 8,743

The inventory at the end of February was 8,211

#19 LS in Arbutus on 05.20.18 at 5:41 pm

Even before B-20, move-up buyers were stuck in Vancouver. It’s not like it’s only an extra $100k to move up. We’re talking $500k – $1 million to move the needle to a materially nicer property. (When you take into account realtor fees, property transfer tax, and added cost of property.) And it’s been that way for, I’d say close on 10 years now, for SFH on the west side. So now with prices wilting… and PEAK credit, it’s just exacerbated. Inventory is up and prices are down (20% approx.) on the west side… and we’re just getting started. I don’t see a big turn-around on the horizon. Inventory’s rising over here.

#20 For those about to flop... on 05.20.18 at 5:43 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Vancouver.

This condo</b was picked up for 1.01 in June 2017

It has been flipped several times in the last few years if you look at the assessment link and these guys got caught with a hot potato.

Condos overall are still going alright compared to detached,but if you think that everyone is doing well at nose bleed prices,then you need to take the tin foil off your spud…

M43BC

1607 950 Cambie Street, Vancouver .paid 1.01June 2017 ass 1.00

Apr 17:$1,099,000
May 18: $999,900
Change: – 99100.00 -9%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/950-cambie-street/1607

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwNDZEMA==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#21 WUL on 05.20.18 at 5:48 pm

“The prettiest place on earth is Baltimore at night” Gram Parsons and Emmylou Harris. “The Streets of Baltimore”. No thanks.

https://www.bing.com/search?q=streets+of+baltimore+gram+parsons+youtube&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=streets+of+baltimore+gram+parsons+youtube&sc=0-41&sk=&cvid=CE1805F09E0045D8AAC2CDAC8F110E09

A wager I’ll make. High stakes, say, the price of a liter of gasoline in Vancouver. The border skirmish here out west lead the AB Leg to pass legislation to allow the shutdown of pipe for fuel to the Lower Mainland. In keeping with the juvenile modern habits of our parliamentarians it has a soothing name. It is something like “An Act to Preserve the Economic Prosperity of Canada and Nice Puppies”.

Bluff city.

Relax YVR. Who will compensate the drillers, the refiners, the pipeliners, the public coffers. The Gubment does not own the produced resources, the refined product and the pipelines. $ Millions per day.

Silly.

#22 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.20.18 at 6:01 pm

Miracle on dice. Viva Las Vegas.

#23 Terry on 05.20.18 at 6:05 pm

“US real estate costs a fraction of that in Canada, despite Americans having a similar median household income and comparable interest rates.”

“Want to see what five hundred grand buys – from a tiny NY City apartment to a southern palace? Here is the link.”

Your right on the money here Garth. Wifey and I are beginning our search out of Canada. We are heading down to Oklahoma and Texas for the month of August, with a detour to Vegas for a week, looking for our new digs in the USA! We’ve had enough of Trudeau’s Canada. Trump’s America is where we want to be. Wifey is American, I’m Canadian and working on the crossing the T’s and dotting the I’s with the sponsorship forms. We will soon be saying goodbye to Liberal Canada and hello to America and God, guns and pass the ammunition please!

#24 For those about to flop... on 05.20.18 at 6:09 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Burnaby.

This townhouse in Burnaby was purchased for 1.09 way back in June 2016 and townhouses have got up a lot since then ,but these guys managed to get into trouble by overpaying for an old one.

New asking price is the same number as purchased for two years ago.

This could take a while, and so they will probably feel like they’re going round and round the Mulberry bush…

M43BC

33 – 7465 Mulberry Place, Burnaby.paid 1.09 June 2016 ass 1.13

Now asking 1.09

2018-05-11 : $1,099,000
2018-05-03 : $1,199,000

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/7465-mulberry-place/33

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWDRBOA==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#25 Dan.t on 05.20.18 at 6:16 pm

What do you mean….”Another unintended consequence of government diddling in the marketplace”

Are you for real. There is a housing crisis in major cities exactly BECAUSE gov messed with the housing market… or are 1 year tax free gains, zero down 40 year mortgage, lax lending policies, selling out to foreign buyers and RE industry and Tons of other BS market interfering policies …. all to grow economy at any cost… no money, no matter, we ( gov) will enact policies to give anyone with a heart beat massive amount of credit, then a Heloc, just spend and buy and spend… this is what they wanted.

Could I borrow 500k with 2% down at 2% interest to invest in anything other than housing?

The government caused the problem- let them fix it.

They aren’t, obviously. Ad nor is there a ‘housing crisis in major cities.’ Just because you can’t have what you want doesn’t constitute a disaster. – Garth

#26 Nick in TX on 05.20.18 at 6:26 pm

We left Vancouver and moved to Houston. Not a particularly pretty city but that house in the link is right on the mark. We paid $206/sqft and our house looks pretty much like that one. We are in a upper middle class neighborhood in the best school district (school catchment defines prices in Houston for the most part). Most of my colleagues think we spent way too much on a house @$700K. $1.2M gets you luxury and then the next step is crazy expensive at $20M+. A key differentiator is no state income tax but annual property tax roughly 2.5%of value so this keeps a natural collar on prices as only a small subset of the population can afford 25K taxes every year even if they could afford the mortgage.

#27 YVR - 60% crash! on 05.20.18 at 6:26 pm

Poloz in deep doo-doo! What else is new?

#28 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 05.20.18 at 6:35 pm

“**********************************
Can you clarify that? An incremental return does not sound correct to me. Are you talking about on a risk-adjusted basis?”

Great question Shawn Allen. I was referring to the incremental return achieved through rebalancing. Many novice investors automatically assume that they can just take the weighted average annual return of, for example, the various asset classes that are in their portfolio. And that would be their return over the long term. However, rebalancing a portfolio, particularly when weakly or inversely correlated asset classes are involved, involves selling the outperforming parts of the portfolio and buying the underperforming parts of the portfolio. The result shows up in the long term as a return that exceeds what was predicted solely through the weighted average of the long-term returns of the individual components.

For instance, gold (bullion) and cash (ie: T-Bills) have similar long-term returns, ie: keeps up with inflation, but not much else. But if you weight them 50-50% in a hypothetical portfolio, and periodically rebalance the overperforming component into the underperforming component, the result is an extra 100-200bps of incremental return over and above the predicted return.

This is how Garth et al are able to do so well with their balanced portfolios that they build for their clients. Its not that they’re trying to hit a home run with the asset classes they select to be part of those portfolios (ie: they’re not looking for the next “hot stock” or “hot sector”, but rather, they use the fact of balance and rebalancing to capture the additional return by methodically buying out of favour asset classes (in their overall mix) and trimming the outperformers.

And yes, further to your other previous post made in reply to another poster, the Sharpe Ratio definitely improves in a portfolio constructed with components that have weak or inverse correlation to other components in the portfolio.

#29 Lost...but not leased on 05.20.18 at 6:42 pm

Condo tsunami….

In RE markets…..historical data show that a “correction” commences with
(i)an increase in inventory
THEN
(ii) prices begin to erode.

Various YOUTUBE videos re: tsunamis show the tide going out in an abnormal fashion….and some fools embarking ill- advised ventures towards the “temporarily”vacating seas.

This analogy is apropos re: the NON detached…ie strata facet of RE market….IMHO there is a false sense of security looming with orders of magnitude correction few will see coming till it is TOO LATE

#30 yvr_lurker on 05.20.18 at 6:44 pm

“And nor is there a ‘housing crisis in major cities.’ Just because you can’t have what you want doesn’t constitute a disaster. – Garth”

Huh???? Are you saying that there is not a housing crisis in Vancouver? I am not sure what planet you live on, but it has been fully documented for years now (by numerous independent sources, economists, etc.) on how difficult and inaffordable even the rental market has become. I guess for the 65 year olds who bought in the 1970’s when prices were in line with salaries, there is no crisis (except for their “fake crisis” moaning about a small extra school tax on 3M+ properties… give me a break… I will take out the world’s smallest violin…). Garth, you don’t gain any credibility by denying what is going on in YVR. It is primarily the reason why the NDP was elected.

#31 Mohammad Omar on 05.20.18 at 6:47 pm

Sigh.

Everyday seems like I want to leave Toronto. Not much here for a 30 year old professional.

#32 Re: #6 on 05.20.18 at 6:51 pm

Listing 100k over previous year assessed values has been the gold standard and trend the last several years in Kelowna.

Last month was the first price stabilization across the board on properties in Kelowna and inside data is forecasting prices to stay flat for the rest of the year there.

Problem is, even if the house you are looking at does not increase in price anymore this year, carrying costs might still increase (if you are borrowing), as rates slowly climb.

Garth says no recession. A housing downturn will cause a recession. Why did Steve Eisman just put a short position on Canadian banks? Because of a housing downturn bet.

Poloz will drag his feet this year until the big wave of refinancing is complete, then they will slowly adjust in what seems to take forever. Years.

#33 Re: #6 on 05.20.18 at 6:53 pm

Listing 100k over previous year assessed values has been the gold standard and trend the last several years in Kelowna.

Last month was the first price stabilization across the board on properties in Kelowna and inside data is forecasting prices to stay flat for the rest of the year there.

Problem is, even if the house you are looking at does not increase in price anymore this year, carrying costs might still increase (if you are borrowing), as rates slowly climb.

Garth says no recession. A housing downturn will cause a recession. Why did Steve Eisman just put a short position on Canadian banks? Because of a housing downturn bet.

Poloz will drag his feet this year until the big wave of refinancing is complete, then they will slowly adjust in what seems to take forever. Years.

#34 Re: #6 on 05.20.18 at 6:54 pm

Regardless, the outlook is bleak if you are leveraging against housing.

Liquidity is drying up.

It might not happen tomorrow, but every realtor I know is just waiting for a turn in which they switch from not getting sales as the market goes south to buying distressed properties, which coincides with where we are in the market.

There is still demand for properties in BC but price changes down and weak demand are happening now in peak season.

It is very cooked in the Okanagan (going the way of Vancouver where you are starting to see just crap priced ludicrously high) and if you are leveraging against a house there you might be getting squeezed hard in the years to come.

Time is money and increasing costs of living and increasing house prices for buyers robs you of future time, while somebody else benefits – consider the source of who is behind this game.

#35 Fake News Again on 05.20.18 at 6:55 pm

And the Govt wonders why there is a constant stream of professionals heading to the USA……never to return to CanaDUHHHH.

#36 Ask your realtor this one question on 05.20.18 at 7:26 pm

Are you buying houses right now?

#37 rknusa on 05.20.18 at 7:36 pm

I am in Baltimore and own 1400 sf house on a 51 by 135 lot that is worth about 165K, even have granite and stainless steel

I am dreading coming back to the overpriced white north, even the remaining affordable places like Windsor and London just keep on getting more expensive each year 15% to 20% plus

enough already, please crash your market real good

#38 Camille on 05.20.18 at 7:39 pm

Hello. Great observations. Why is housing so expensive in Canada? Because Canads has more larger cities per capita maybe. Canadian rates still follow US closely over time, and I’m told the market sets rates.

#39 Dolce Vita on 05.20.18 at 7:42 pm

There will always be people that have to sell (e.g., divorce, job relocation, retirement downsizing to cash out, inheritance etc.).

They will sell for less as there is no other choice as time runs out and thus, they will determine RE market pricing.

A VRM rate increase in July will lower the number of buyers further, October even more so. Fixed rates continue to increase.

Greedy sellers will finally see that the writing is on the wall and by September, prices will begin to correct, maybe even crash – the latter most likely.

Far too many speculators in the market. As their “investment” RE asset value goes down, so will their appetite to fund a losing investment.

4th Qtr. will begin the largest RE asset devaluation in Cdn. history, having started in September – yet another non month for RE; rather, the opposite as in large price drops.

And as I predicted awhile ago, small increases April-May, with virtually no sales and the hope that things will turnaround in months of traditionally low sales until September – dumb and wrong minded thinking, but welcome to human nature.

It will be a last person to the turnstiles to get out having made some money rather than no money in the 2nd peak selling month of September.

Panic does not recognize that downtown Toronto or Vancouver are immune to price drops.

Of course, the truly greedy will hang after September.

Hope past commenters post about their “paper millionaire” status on this blog as they did so ardently in the past.

#40 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 05.20.18 at 7:44 pm

Speaking of the US, every year I apply for the green card lottery. Yes that evil program that brings in about 50,000 people into the US every year that Trump hates. He’s probably getting rid of it soon, can’t say I blame him on that. So it’s probably my last chance this year. I was born in Europe but got stuck in this frozen hellhole ever since so unlike unlucky Canadians, I can at least apply. Gives a little hope. Anyways we got the results May 15th, but I’m too scared to look. Smokey, will you hold me?

#41 rknusa on 05.20.18 at 7:48 pm

was hopin to retire next year from Baltimore to southern Ontario but I think I just might stay a little longer down here and watch this market hopefully unravel, got access to world class health care at Hopkins (without a wait), a six figure wage, six weeks holiday a year and a defined benefit plan that increases every year I stay here – I ask myself why should I leave and come back to overpriced America Lite

most items in Canada are double what they cost here which includes real estate

#42 Millennial905er on 05.20.18 at 7:49 pm

#26 Nick in TX

Care to share some tips on how you managed to escape?

#43 jim on 05.20.18 at 7:51 pm

“US real estate costs a fraction of that in Canada”

Depends where you are. Prices have shot up to unsustainable levels in many cities. SF, San Jose, San Diego, Seattle, Portland, Salt Lake City, Boston, etc etc. Yes, better from an affordability standpoint than Vancouver, but much much worse than a few years back.

Other cities (Albequerque, Kansas City, etc) are still affordable. Some have fallen (e.g., Flint MI).

“Makes this $499,000 house in Baltimore look even sweeter”

Umm, no. Baltimore is headed for a Detroit style ruin. Look at the crime stats (which like a lot of cities are under-reported due to police departments fudging numbers and downgrading incidents). Use Google to find reports on learning outcomes and violence in Baltimore schools.

Newark is also a major avoid. The person who put that list together wouldn’t last half an hour walking around at night in either of those cities.

#44 Proud_Canadian on 05.20.18 at 7:51 pm

We have our problems here in Canada. High taxes, winter and Trudeau… But you people who say they will move to the United States are just crazy. If you are pissed off about the house prices compared to what you get in the US, move to a cheaper city! Windsor, St. John’s, Halifax, Ottawa,etc.plenty of options. We Canadians take what we have for granted. I fly to the US for business often and every time I’m there, I’m like get me out of here. No amount of money would convince me to move there.. Not even sunny California. Those Yankees and their obsession with God, Guns, American football and dirty diesel Trucks… No THANKS.Canada is still numero uno!

#45 Jimbo on 05.20.18 at 7:59 pm

The land taxes may surprise you on some of those homes especially in Texas and Florida. Still can’t wait to move to the states in 13 years now that I have green card from wife.

#46 Dolce Vita on 05.20.18 at 8:03 pm

Forgot.

Then there will AFTA.

If you can believe the MSM, the sticking point is the auto industry.

Trump wants more American content to stop cheats like the Germans assembling in Mexico and backdooring their autos to the US duty free.

Trump wants to create more auto jobs in America which means fewer jobs in Canada and Mexico.

Canada (unfortunately) and Mexico are intransigent on the auto sector again per the MSM.

If it becomes AFTA, then watch economic prospect human nature go negative and fast in Canada, esp. in ON.

Just because Mr. Dressup says we’re close does not make it so. Besides, compared to his father he is 2 bricks short of a full load and then again, more.

#47 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.20.18 at 8:05 pm

#39 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 05.20.18 at 7:44 pm
Speaking of the US, every year I apply for the green card lottery. Yes that evil program that brings in about 50,000 people into the US every year that Trump hates. He’s probably getting rid of it soon, can’t say I blame him on that. So it’s probably my last chance this year. I was born in Europe but got stuck in this frozen hellhole ever since so unlike unlucky Canadians, I can at least apply. Gives a little hope. Anyways we got the results May 15th, but I’m too scared to look. Smokey, will you hold me?
…………………..

I will hold you. Just step a little closer to the edge there…don’t look down now……..

#48 Mr dress-up world on 05.20.18 at 8:09 pm

39 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 05.20.18 at 7:44 pm
Speaking of the US, every year I apply for the green card lottery. Yes that evil program that brings in about 50,000 people into the US every year that Trump hates. He’s probably getting rid of it soon, can’t say I blame him on that. So it’s probably my last chance this year. I was born in Europe but got stuck in this frozen hellhole ever since so unlike unlucky Canadians, I can at least apply. Gives a little hope. Anyways we got the results May 15th, but I’m too scared to look. Smokey, will you hold me?

..

The whiny assed one is back.. if you actually had skills it is very easy to move to the USA dudette.

#49 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 05.20.18 at 8:19 pm

#47 Mr dress-up world on 05.20.18 at 8:09 pm

Stop crying. I never left. And I do have skills, tremendous skills. I’m just not a doctor or engineer or computer programmer unfortunately. It’s not as easy as you may think, plus a NAFTA visa is not a permanent solution. And that is very precarious right now.

#50 Shaw Vinnis Canadian Millenial on 05.20.18 at 8:27 pm

DELETED

#51 NumNum on 05.20.18 at 8:30 pm

“They aren’t, obviously. Ad nor is there a ‘housing crisis in major cities.’ Just because you can’t have what you want doesn’t constitute a disaster. – Garth”

Average people being financially strained for a basic necessity sounds like a disaster to me.

Owning real estate in a major urban area is not a basic necessity. – Garth

#52 T2's Circus on 05.20.18 at 8:40 pm

Forget the auto problem, as these clowns in 9 months have done nothing. They are a mendacious group with a list of more pressing matters that have not been negotiated. I guess they forgot to tell we the citizens the real facts of these pending matters. Where was the so called transparency in government that was promised?

#53 Phylis on 05.20.18 at 8:45 pm

Hmm, that roof looks a little shakey, better ask for an inspection or reduce the bid accordingly.

#54 real estate on 05.20.18 at 9:08 pm

US real estate costs a fraction of that in Canada, despite Americans

…….

is local

have a look at seattle, various cities in Texas, california, new york , boston….just off the top of my head

that house in Baltmore goes for $500,000!? lol, that city is a dive

#55 Stormy Daniels on 05.20.18 at 9:14 pm

OK Garth, it’s time.

I need $130,000 asap or everyone will know about you, me and Bandit.

The Lunenburg Enquirer is now on my speed dial and Siri too.

(That’s in US dollars, btw. Your country’s currency looks pretty sketchy to me right now. I’ll also take it in maple syrup and Bieber tickets, contact me for details)

#56 Victor V on 05.20.18 at 9:24 pm

#8 North Burnaby on 05.20.18 at 4:06 pm

Wherever I go, I keep on seeing SOLD signs for condos

======
======

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/real-estate-vancouver-sold-sign-1.4625080

A Richmond real estate agent has been fined for drawing up a contract forcing a buyer to display her team leader’s “Sold” sign for a year.

According to a decision posted on the Real Estate Council of B.C.’s website, neighbours complained when the sign was still hanging out front of the property eight months after the new owners moved in.

#57 oncebittwiceshy on 05.20.18 at 9:39 pm

North Burnaby: “Wherever I go, I keep on seeing SOLD signs for condos”

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Ya must be passing the same one over and over again, buds.

http://vancitycondoguide.com/bc-real-estate-sales-in-april/

"Total dollars spent on BC real estate fell 1.2 billion year-over-year last month. In fact dollar activity is down 39% from the April 2016 peak."

#58 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.20.18 at 9:45 pm

#48 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 05.20.18 at 8:19 pm
#47 Mr dress-up world on 05.20.18 at 8:09 pm

Stop crying. I never left. And I do have skills, tremendous skills.
…………………………..

I’ve seen those skills. They are tremendous and I was very impressed. You body slammed that midget like she didn’t weigh anything at all. And you were doing great on the trapeze until the rope snapped. Is it itchy under that body cast ?

#59 Christine Dayman on 05.20.18 at 9:55 pm

DELETED

#60 pay your taxes on 05.20.18 at 10:45 pm

“. But the inflation rate is 2.2%, and rising. ”

Not if the rate increases have stopped.

The North Shore of Vancouver appears to have had an increase of listings, but that could be wrong because I rarely pay attention (a real estate paper fell onto my desk today).

Baltimore is a crime ridden ghetto far worse than anything Canada has ever seen. Not a reasonable comparison by any stretch. Most areas of Florida ain’t no country club either. Those houses might be 500k each but the red zone of criminal activity could be less than a block away.

No matter how much hyperbole and how many straw men I encounter on this blog I will always return for the underlying message of balance and diversity. That and the message that” the meaning of life isn’t owning a house”.

#61 What can I say about that? on 05.20.18 at 10:50 pm

Rates will not be going up significantly. Can’t. It’s obvious that they can’t with the massive debt load Canadians have taken on. They are up a measley 3/4 points from the lowest ever. In fact, rates will probably be going down in the near future. Along with the Canadian dollar.

#62 crossbordershopper on 05.20.18 at 10:52 pm

orlando is great except for the summer time , man in july you will back like a potato, the in your face humidity and straight out heat is sometimes uncomfortable.
in terms of mortage interest and points being deductible in the usa, the new rules are 750000 on your first mortgage no line of credit so many americans buy a very nice big house, you really have to go out of your way to get a home for a million in florida,
so many amerians have more than one home.
taxes are now biggly difference in the usa under trump canadians have no idea how much extra tax they pay each day of their life in canada compared to the usa.
just another reason to go the usa.

#63 TRUMP on 05.20.18 at 11:01 pm

I’d love to move to the south and enjoy a mansion and 80 degree average weather year round.

There’s just 2 problems……healthcare and handguns!!

If one dont get you the other will. And you will be right back to sqaure one.

#64 pay your taxes on 05.20.18 at 11:05 pm

#41 rknusa

and a defined benefit plan that increases every year I stay here –

Not if your plan is governed and underfunded like the other American plans . Commute and get out if you can, or save like hell if you actually need that pension to survive.

#65 SoggyShorts on 05.20.18 at 11:20 pm

#38 For those about to flop… on 05.19.18 at 10:02 pm
#52 Disgruntled on 05.20.18 at 1:07 am
no it’s not “schadenfreude” (big word, wrongly used given we are nowhere near a crash let alone meaningful corection in YVR RE).
******************
1. I wasn’t suggesting that Flop should leave, but rather that having all of his awesome posts in one location might be better.
2. schadenfreude is joy at others misfortune, which from what I can see at least part of his posts.
What other use is knowing that every day 4-5 houses sell at a 1-20% loss?

Maybe I’m missing it, so what is everyone doing with this information? What more does each affirmation that things aren’t all rosey in Van give you?

If I was thinking about buying in Van I would truly appreciate being shown a list of money losing home sales to change my mind, but once I’ve seen the proof 20,50,100 times wouldn’t it be better if it was all in one spot, easily searchable?

#66 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.21.18 at 12:45 am

Canada’s Debt Spiral……interesting article from the Mises Institute
https://mises.org/wire/canadas-debt-spiral

#67 New Orleans is sinking, and I don't want to swim! on 05.21.18 at 1:50 am

Thank goodness for Turdeau’s new carbon taxes, because the banks have stopped lending on properties less than 50 feet above sea level! Oh wait, they are still lending.

#68 Smoking Man on 05.21.18 at 2:00 am

12 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 05.20.18 at 4:48 pm
Great post Garth. Happy Sunday long weekend everyone. I liked Garth’s point about supply & demand being in balance.

“The result is price resistance. Fewer buyers chasing fewer listings means supply and demand are balanced with no precipitous valuation plunge.”

It is always interesting and curious to me though. We apply supply and demand to every other facet of economics but somehow we’re expected to believe that if we dramatically over-supply the labour market, it’s not going to suppress wages? Just a thought! Or maybe… that was the intention all along.

Anyways ill leave this here for your consideration.

Entering the long weekend, the PC lead evaporates as NDP momentum builds.
http://onpulse.ca/blog/entering-the-long-weekend-the-pc-lead-evaporates-as-ndp-momentum-builds
…..

Haha same MSM that said Hillary has got this….

Kid, you want to go to the USA for good. Go to vages find a drunk and marry them. Lots to chose from…. You would be hard pressed to find a sobar one…

Lord Stanley is going to be spending a lot of time in Sin City.

How do I know?, same way I knew trump would win, and liberals won’t win one seat in Ontario come Jun 7th.

The power of the UCC… I just will it and it happens.

#69 Protea on 05.21.18 at 2:29 am

8 Myra Andrews on 05.20.18 at 5:38 pm
Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul Boenisch

Myra I havent a clue of what to make out of these stats. Please break it down for me !!!!

#70 Stan Brooks on 05.21.18 at 4:21 am

Vegas Golden Knights reach the NHL finals in their 1st year as professional team.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/23557031/golden-knights-band-misfits-surge-stanley-cup-final-extend-improbable-run

Remind me again, when was the last time the maple leaf suckers reached that final?

It tells you volumes about this place.

#71 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 05.21.18 at 5:21 am

Moving to the US….best decision you’ll ever make. Trouble is you can’t walk across the border and expect a welcome. The only easy way is to be on the Top Ten List of most wanted skill sets….it’s listed on the immigration site.

Proviso..make the move as a young grad….unmarried. I did and the agent near grabbed me by the pocket protector and wrenched me over the desk with a toothy “welcome”. If you wait until you’ve accumulated Canadian assets the CRA spits hate at your success and puts you through the deemed disposition meat grinder. So…young grads..get the hell out and hit the million mark thirty years sooner in Texas than in Canada. The difference is clear, costs are half, taxes are a third…salaries are triple and more. Your income will double just crossing the border ….but Texas is like heaven….you’ll buy that big house with your signing bonus. My V8 Camaro convertible is $19,999.00 in Dallas…it’s $54,000 in Vancouver…same car.

I just knew it would be a Camaro. Glock in the glovebox?- Garth

#72 50 YEARS OF MAPLE LEAF INCOMPETENCE! on 05.21.18 at 6:55 am

Hahahahahahahaha!!!

Hey, Toronturds!!

Vegas makes it to the Stanley Cup Final in its FIRST YEAR!!!

Toronto?

A fifth-rate, delusional suburban wasteland where only fools bid up the prices of crap real estate.

Get out of that hell-hole while you can. Toronto is becoming a very ugly, dangerous, run-down, demoralized CITY OF LOSERS.

Bwaahaaahaahaahaaaahaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!

#73 Incubus on 05.21.18 at 8:08 am

“Meanwhile Canadian equities are cheap and unloved (like me) and likely to remain so until after the Ontario election, NAFTA is decided, and a pipeline rammed up the Horgan.” and Trudeau gone.

#74 Darryl on 05.21.18 at 8:51 am

I just knew it would be a Camaro. Glock in the glovebox?- Garth
………………………………………………………
LOLOL . Best zinger in months Garth !!!

And I thought I could make it a whole year without coffee coming out of my nose .

#75 Berniebee on 05.21.18 at 9:20 am

#41 rknusa

SIX WEEKS vacation? In America? Truly, you are one of the chosen few. Six weeks annual vacation is virtually unheard of in the USA.

I worked for the Canadian subsidary of an American biotech company. The Americans worked many years before they got three weeks and they were discouraged from taking it “All at once.”!

#76 Penny Henny on 05.21.18 at 9:35 am

Exaggerate much?
MSRP for a base Camaro Convertible is $32,900 in the USA. Canadian MSRP is $37,595.
After exchange it is actually cheaper here.
////////////////

#71 Oft deleted much maligned stock picker on 05.21.18 at 5:21 am
Moving to the US….best decision you’ll ever make. Trouble is you can’t walk across the border and expect a welcome. The only easy way is to be on the Top Ten List of most wanted skill sets….it’s listed on the immigration site.

Proviso..make the move as a young grad….unmarried. I did and the agent near grabbed me by the pocket protector and wrenched me over the desk with a toothy “welcome”. If you wait until you’ve accumulated Canadian assets the CRA spits hate at your success and puts you through the deemed disposition meat grinder. So…young grads..get the hell out and hit the million mark thirty years sooner in Texas than in Canada. The difference is clear, costs are half, taxes are a third…salaries are triple and more. Your income will double just crossing the border ….but Texas is like heaven….you’ll buy that big house with your signing bonus. My V8 Camaro convertible is $19,999.00 in Dallas…it’s $54,000 in Vancouver…same car.

#77 dharma bum on 05.21.18 at 9:58 am

Makes this $499,000 house in Baltimore look even sweeter. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Or not. Check out who your neighbours are in Baltimore:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygxhU9hLq9Q

#78 dharma bum on 05.21.18 at 10:01 am

#70 Stan Brooks

Remind me again, when was the last time the maple leaf suckers reached that final?

It tells you volumes about this place.
——————————————————————-

Symbolically, anyway.

#79 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.18 at 10:03 am

@#49 Screwed Canadian Millenial
“And I do have skills, tremendous skills…..”
+++++
Oddly enough, those are the exact words Stormy Daniels used when applying for work with Donald Trump………

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.18 at 10:07 am

@#65 Soiled Diapers
“but once I’ve seen the proof 20,50,100 times….”
+++++++

And yet, greaterfools still continue to buy.

#81 Fish on 05.21.18 at 10:14 am

agree
with entry #32# 33 # 34 of that is the same person,
Sound like it is, helpful words

#82 xyz on 05.21.18 at 10:32 am

“Owning real estate in a major urban area is not a basic necessity. – Garth”

Wow Garth.. you are blind to what is going on here in Greater Vancouver. The basic necessity people are struggling to find is rental housing because people have been a) Leaving homes empty and/or b) AirBnB’ing them.

Several camper farms have sprouted up all over the city. Those are the folks that are getting displaced by this sillyness. Young kids just starting out can’t find homes, so they stay with their parents forever, or have to leave the city to find shelter when even their parents have been reno/sale/greed-evicted (take your pick) and can no longer afford the luxury of housing their adult children.

This was all set in motion over 10 years ago, its really an epidemic. No one but the 1%’ers can afford to live here anymore, and even those with ‘earned income’ can not afford to purchase homes. Dr’s and Lawyers in their 40&50’s still struggling for that first home purchase. Yes owning a home is not a basic necessity, having a roof over your head is.

Then you agree. You should also agree politicians are making it worse. – Garth

#83 For those about to flop... on 05.21.18 at 10:41 am

Bang for buck…

M43BC

“See Which Companies Make Billions from Selling Weapons Around the World

In 1961, President Dwight Eisenhower famously warned Americans about what he called the “military-industrial complex,” a term he used to describe the toxic union between special interests and people in power. Companies can make a lot of money selling weapons to the government, and those companies can in turn fund candidates friendly to their business model. Our new visualization shows how the United States has ignored Eisenhower’s warning.

We created our graph from a list of companies compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). SIPRI figured out how much revenue each company derives from manufacturing and selling weapons—think military airplanes, tanks, drones, missiles, guns, etc. For each company we provided its logo, along with the flag showing the country where the company is headquartered. Then we made a bar graph showing the annual revenue earned from military sales. You can easily see how making and selling weapons is big business.
Our graph quickly reveals two key aspects of the military-industrial complex. First off, making military airplanes and equipment is a multi-billion-dollar industry dominated by a handful of players. Lockheed Martin jumps out as the biggest contributor, topping $40.8B in annual sales. That represents just over 86% of the company’s total annual revenue. Boeing also stands out as another household name that most people might not expect to find atop this list—they generate $29.5B in annual weapon sales. Unlike Lockheed, however, this sector only accounts for 31% of the company’s total yearly revenue. Airbus ($12.5B) also deserves special mention as the highest-ranked company from a non-English-speaking country (France).

The other interesting trend in our visualization is how American companies dominate the industry. 13 out of these top 20 companies are headquartered in the U.S., collectively generating $178.5B in yearly sales of military equipment. An additional 2 companies are from the U.K., meaning that 80% of the top 20 companies come from the English-speaking world. Another important takeaway is that every company on the list comes from the Western, developed world. Ultimately, that means any active war zone around the globe has been almost undoubtedly made possible by Western companies.

What is the big takeaway from our visualization? The countries included in our visual have foreign policies committed to international institutions, the rule of law, and peacemaking efforts (except perhaps Russia). Large segments of the economies of developed nations (especially in the U.S.) depend on manufacturing and selling weapons and other military-related manufactured goods. Does that mean the stated American foreign policy goals of encouraging global efforts toward peace are inherently at odds with the country’s own domestic political and economic interests? Private companies building and selling guns is not the same thing as the government encouraging their use in other nations’ war zones, but President Eisenhower’s prescient warning is great food for thought.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/20-companies-with-the-highest-revenue-from-arms-sales

#84 Doug in London on 05.21.18 at 10:42 am

Keep in mind that, with the exchange rate that 500 grand US is about 644 grand Canadian. None the less, 644 grand still buys an awful lot more in many US cities than overpriced Toronto and Vancouver. It makes you wonder, if housing is cheaper in The States than Canada, why is the rate of home ownership lower? Shouldn’t he opposite be true if houses there are cheaper?

#85 Shawn on 05.21.18 at 10:56 am

Big USD breakout coming – weakness in $CAD will be more a result of USD strength than $CAD weakness.

USDCAD to 1.40…

#86 Damifino on 05.21.18 at 11:27 am

#84 Doug in London

It makes you wonder, if housing is cheaper in The States than Canada, why is the rate of home ownership lower? Shouldn’t he opposite be true if houses there are cheaper?
—————————————

It seems they had a rather bad experience in the housing sector a while back that nearly brought down the entire global banking system. For many, home ownership remains a chilling memory. Not so in our fair land.

#87 joblo on 05.21.18 at 11:44 am

(Slightly altered, a joke, the picture did it):

A dog walks into a bank and approaches the teller, whose name plate says Patricia Whack.

“Ms. Whack, I’d like to get a $1000 loan for a new doghouse with granite and stainless steel.”

Patty looks at the dog in disbelief and asks his name.

“Jagger. My father is Mick Jagger. It will be fine to authorize the loan, I know your manager.”

Patty explains that he will need to secure the loan with some collateral.

“Sure, how about this,” said Jagger as he produces a tiny porcelain elephant, about an inch tall, bright pink and perfectly formed. Very confused, Patty explains that she’ll have to consult with the bank manager and disappears into a back office.

Patty walks into the manager’s office and proceeds to tell her, “There’s a dog called Jagger out there who claims to know you and wants to borrow $1000, and he wants to use this as collateral.” Patty holds up the tiny pink elephant. “I mean, what in the world is this?”

The bank manager looks back at her and says…”It’s a knickknack, Patty Whack. Give the dog a loan. His old man’s a Rolling Stone.”

#88 concerned1 on 05.21.18 at 11:45 am

Here is the difference between real estate and financial assets that will become increasingly clear over the years as you housing bears continue to watch real estate values explode.

You will never really “own” what you have invested in the stock market, as CEO’s and major shareholders turn the wheels that make or break these large companies. You have no special access to the inner workings of these “corporations” so at some point you are bound to get screwed because you don’t “own” the whole pie, just a tiny sliver of it.

With real estate it’s simple–your name is on the title to the property and that means you control the asset 100%. The whole pie is yours. It’s easy to understand, it can generate income (in the form of rent) and gains on your principal residence are tax free. Plus there is the emotional aspect to real estate–everyone wants a “home”. In many ways real estate is like a company that you own, and have ultimate power over and these reasons are why people prefer it and it will continue to rise in spite of everything.

Few argue against the emotional buzz of owning, but a one-asset strategy is insane. Stop pumping. – Garth

#89 Damifino on 05.21.18 at 11:52 am

#82 xyz

This was all set in motion over 10 years ago, its really an epidemic.
———————————

It was all set in motion 133 years ago with the completion of the Canadian Pacific Railway. Vancouver City is the very definition of real estate speculation.

And don’t single out Asia. Money has always flown in from various places. Once it was Britain, then it was the USA. That’s the essential nature of the beast.

People with fond memories of a youth spent here look upon those times as the golden years of the city and everything has been downhill since. If you go back far enough, you’ll find several other generations sharing a similar point of view.

#90 TurnerNation on 05.21.18 at 11:57 am

Another installment of Kanadian Fackts.

(These Fackts are so – because of fancy socks, colourful headgear, and Government Weed).

KIDS: get a job with a Crown Corp., arms length Co., or an NGO. Within 10 years you could be earning 100-400k + non-performance bonuses.

You’ll be performing important tasks to Kanadians, such as:
– Charging highest electricity prices in the world.
– Highest telecom fees in the world.
– Highest airport landing fees in the world (@YYZ)
– Inflated prices for eggs, dairy and other essential foodstuffs.
– 5x higher prices for alcohol and smokes
– Ordering CanCon krap into our minds (forced programming).
– Keep moving gas prices higher to induce 10-20% inflation (all deliveries are via truck).
– Recommend more “carbon taxes” to get to 70% total taxation level of income

And so much more. You’ll be on the front lines of keeping us flouridated and stoned.
Just spend all of your allocated budget, without oversight, to ensure yearly increases.

You’ll be busy hitting capitalists where it hurts and denying Kanadians proper access to science, technology and energy.

#91 Newcomer on 05.21.18 at 12:03 pm

My experience living in the US is that, if you use an exchange rate of 120 CAD to 100 US, which is about median, life for renters in cities of similar tier rankings is a bit more expensive in the States, and quite a bit more expensive if you pay your own health insurance, especially if you have a family. On the other hand, if you have a sought-after job, salaries in the States are quite a bit higher. Not surprisingly, the well-to-do do a bit better in the States and the average joe has an easier time in Canada. I can’t speak to the countryside.

This site seems to do an OK job of comparisons. http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/comparison.jsp

#92 Wrk.dover on 05.21.18 at 12:28 pm

Oft deleted much maligned stock picker

———————————————–

Must be a little man.

I went to the GM dealer to check out the current generation Camaro when it was introduced. At 5′ 8″ I couldn’t get the seat back far enough to sit in it straight legged. I got out and looked for a reason…it was hard against the rear seat! I couldn’t see the ground near me over the tops of the doors when I had been sitting in it either.

That car is in the lawn ornament league.

Texans!

#93 Sandy Santos on 05.21.18 at 12:32 pm

GIC’s can be annual pay interest as well. You don’t have to get them with compound interest. You actually get the interest every year paid in your bank account of your choosing.

3% to 3.5% 5 year GIC’s these days are not that great but in many cases most people will not pay 50% taxes on their interest income in retirement.

The first $50,000 of income per retiree will incur around $7,500 to $8,500 a year in total income taxes or around 15% to 17%.

So a couple making $100,000 will not pay $50,000 in annual income taxes but around $15,000 to $17,000 a year in total income taxes.

Also, if people were more proactive and planned their finances, TFSA’s today could easily tax protect them around $500 a year or $1,000 a couple so they could be paying even less taxes plus another savings of $500 single, $1,000 a couple in tax free RRIF income of $2,000 or $4,000 a year.

So really, $13,000 to $15,000 a year in total income taxes from $100,000 of yearly income of interest, RRIF, TFSA income. This not more than 13% to 15% total annual tax rate which is pretty reasonable.

Most people during their working lives are paying around 25% to 35% in total annual income tax rates.

#94 M.T. on 05.21.18 at 12:37 pm

***Best zinger in months Garth !!!

How is that a ‘zinger’? If only we had proper firearms rights in this country.

Actually, I got it – it’s because Glock is the lame-o, poseur brand of the pistol world.

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.18 at 12:38 pm

@#86 Damfino
Re: US vs Canada housing ownership differences

“It seems they had a rather bad experience in the housing sector a while back that nearly brought down the entire global banking system. For many, home ownership remains a chilling memory……

Not so in our fair land.”

++++

Not yet.

#96 Gulf Breeze on 05.21.18 at 1:01 pm

No housing crisis in the big cities, Garth? In B.C the housing crisis has extended way beyond the boundaries of Vancouver and Victoria.

Currently I am helping a working single mother and her teen son who are living in 300 square feet at 900.00 per month. They can barely afford to eat.

Instead of ‘doubling down,’ with the same tired sloganeering you should be honestly assessing what has happened out West.

You don’t have to agree with how the current provincial government is handling it, but please don’t deny that we are in a terrible crisis. It’s cruel.

#97 Triplenet on 05.21.18 at 1:03 pm

With the list price of the Orlando property at ~$500,000 – makes you think about the land value having to be less than $100,000.
Even in tertiary markets in Canada respective land values are much higher.
Go figure.

#98 jess on 05.21.18 at 1:08 pm

How much does Canada pay each year for the “Crown’s stabilizing presence” 50m?

==========
Why is Harper speaking?

Harper, in his new capacity as chair of the International Democratic Union (IDU), penned a congratulatory letter to Viktor Orbán, the chair of Hungary’s right wing Fidesz-Hungarian Civic Alliance. Orbán’s Alliance is a member of the IDU, an international alliance of 80 centre-right political parties.

To be invisible,” wrote the 19th-century constitutionalist Walter Bagehot, “is to be forgotten … To be a symbol, and an effective symbol, you must be vividly and often seen.”

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/05/20/why-we-should-care-about-what-stephen-harper-says.html

residency bonds -gold visas (see occrp)
Earlier this year, the European Union’s Anti-Fraud Office rocked Hungary’s political establishment with a scathing report that found “seriously irregularities” in the Orbán government’s handling of important EU-funded public contracts. The bulk of the findings of the report had been previously reported by Direkt36 and Atlatszo.

And now, Pethő and the other journalists are government targets.
https://www.icij.org/blog/2018/05/heart-hungarys-battle-democracy-journalism/

Accountability Digital journalism Europe Investigative reporting Press freedom

Journalist Andras Petho on fighting Hungary’s powerful ‘propaganda machine’
Petra Blum · May 7, 2018

The Hungarian government is waging war on the press. Here’s how ICIJ member Andras Petho is responding.
PRESS FREEDOM

Dean Starkman — May 7, 2018
https://www.icij.org/blog/2018/05/heart-hungarys-battle-democracy-journalism/
Miklós Haraszti, had a message for an audience of journalists and their supporters: “The media are the ultimate frontiers in defending freedom in society.”

#99 cd on 05.21.18 at 2:03 pm

There are a few differences in the US and Canada that a lot of people don’t mention. While these are somewhat indirect, they do have an affect.

1. Minimum wage… In a fair number of states the min. wage is a mere fraction of what it is in ontario. Hence the workers cost less to build houses over there.

2. The 2008 crash… A lot of people in the US were badly burnt and learned their lessons. We still need to go through that.

3. More markets… People in our country want to live in a handful of cities, while in the US its dozens and dozens. Hence, due to that good old supply-demand curve prices are higher in Canada.

4. Student loans… In order to get into a 500k home you need a decent job which probably involves a fair bit of higher education. In the US, many people are burdened with huge student loan debts, and hence don’t enter the market.

#100 PeterfromCalgary on 05.21.18 at 2:10 pm

Inverted yield curves often precede a recession.

#101 Myra Andrews on 05.21.18 at 2:49 pm

#69 Protea
Myra I havent a clue of what to make out of these stats. Please break it down for me !!!!

The first number is the number of homes (detached houses, townhouses or condos) that were listed for sale that day. The second number is how many actually sold that day (the subjects were removed and the listing was removed from the MLS) and the third number is how many homes are for sale, in total, that day. It is the total inventory of homes for sale.

The numbers are only for the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board and does not include the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (Surrey, Langley, Abbotsford etc)

#102 april on 05.21.18 at 3:01 pm

People are asking stupid amounts for condos in the LowerMainland BC but lots of reduced on Point2HomesSupport..

#103 dgb on 05.21.18 at 4:02 pm

this is for #30—–I am a 65 yr old..married in 1973…we bought the deal ‘we could afford’….3 bed-1 bath-furnished !! in a small town outside of our work city….my husband brought home approx $500.00 per month and I was a stay at home for the first 5 years doing sewing and baking and canning for an extra $100 per month….Our mortgage was for $13000(payment 177.15 per month) we took a fixed rate of 12.5% for a total of 10 years..his wage doubled in 5 years time….bank sent a mortgage renewal after 7 years to move rate to 19%..I dug out original mortgage document..it said fixed rate for 10 years…garbaged their new paper to be ‘signed and returned’!!! after 10 years we were informed that we had to make an extra 7 payments…dug out original mortgage agreement again and showed bank it was fixed rate for 10 years then fully paid… fully paid– removed accounts from said bank and have never trusted another without keeping all paperwork—worked our way up to $140000 acreage by 1987. you youngsters need to be starting at the bottom and working your way up when necessary and forget about starting at the top!!! it only leads to falling as you will soon find out…in this high priced market you need to rent and save and be ready for the fall as it will surely happen…you do not ‘need’ a house of your own until you can afford one and don’t let society or re agents talk you into something that you can’t afford.. make your ‘home’ where ever you happen to be…stop trying to keep up with the jones and do what you can afford…you will be far ahead of them in 10 years time when they are bankrupt due to overspending….Housing requires many expenses not budgeted for when the purchase is made but renting is a small price to pay for a stress free lifestyle or buy below your budget if you must…life was not that cushy for most boomers who you seem to think were handed verything they have for nothing…we worked very hard for what we have accumulated and you have only begun but you seem to expect it all ‘now’ because we finally have it all now ( and you assume it was somehow given to us on our free ride!!!) You have so much to learn about working and finances…..I fear for this generation and their entitlement syndrome….instead of starting at the top of housing because you think we all did, start where you are capable re: your income and qualifications and work your way up…it is what we boomers did and no one fed us with a silver spoon along the way !! it was hard,we worked our way up and we never whined about having what some millionaires son or daughter had as they also worked hard for their first million and likely never whined either about their losses but kept working towards their goal…my advice to this age of whiners is get a life! set a reasonable goal and set out to achieve it and stop saying we boomers had it all…it is all there for you also..quit whining and get out there and find it.. piece by piece….just my 75 cents worth(inflation you know!)

#104 Conn Smythe on 05.21.18 at 4:21 pm

#72 Toronto Basher

“A fifth-rate, delusional suburban wasteland where only fools bid up the prices of crap real estate.”

And a happy Victoria Day Weekend to you as well! While you can justify what you say about the Boys in Blue you are truly and utterly deranged about calling Toronto a suburban wasteland. The third largest metropolis in Canada and the USA next to New York and LA. The fool is you cowboy and the state of derangement is yours. Stick to your Leafs bashing you loser.

#105 Conn Smythe on 05.21.18 at 4:28 pm

#70 Stand the Man Brooks and also masquerading as the Toronto Basher (like we don’t know it’s you Stanley).

We get it Stan Baby. Good for Vegas. That you would equate the Leafs not winning Lord Stanley’s vaunted prize with your asinine comments about Toronto. Give it up Stan baby. What other Canadian city has two World Series championships (what other Canadian city has a major league baseball team for that matter) an NBA team, MLS soccer champs in 2017, CFL team and finally is the third largest metropolis in North America behind New York and LA? Give it up you pathetic loser Stan. You sound like a deranged lunatic.

#106 mike from mtl on 05.21.18 at 4:54 pm

#85 Shawn on 05.21.18 at 10:56 am

USDCAD to 1.40…

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Swing and a miss, nice try, it actually has fallen today to 1.27

Though yes long term CA$ is going to take a beating not raising rates and most probably bad recession due to housing unwind.

#107 Tony on 05.21.18 at 4:55 pm

Re: #85 Shawn on 05.21.18 at 10:56 am

Many of the oil longs are also long the Canadian dollar for that very reason. The next inflection point is 80 dollars a barrel for West Texas crude. With everything a rigged total joke or circus sideshow today it’s whatever the central bankers want to do. Gone are the smooth up and down cycles of past decades. Now everything is either straight up or straight down.

#108 Long Branch Apprentice on 05.21.18 at 5:25 pm

Hard to see two more rate hikes from Poloz this year, I bet one more at most.

#109 jess on 05.21.18 at 6:22 pm

between two populist parties
Giuseppe Conte on the verge of becoming this country’s leader.

=

There has been an 84% fall in the number of investor visa applications since the reforms were introduced.
Tier 1 visas are thought to be held by about 700 wealthy Russians.
Applications can be rejected if officials believe the applicant is not in control of funds, money has been obtained unlawfully, or the origin of funds means granting a visa will not be conducive to the public good.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/21/roman-abramovich-thought-to-be-caught-up-in-uk-visa-crackdown

https://www.occrp.org/en/paradisepapers/london-apartments-show-ongoing-ties-of-odesa-mayor-to-oil-mafia
How Maltese Online Gambling Became an ATM for the Italian Mafia
https://www.occrp.org/en/thedaphneproject/how-maltese-online-gambling-became-an-atm-for-the-italian-mafia

#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.21.18 at 6:32 pm

@#103 dgb
“You have so much to learn about working and finances…..I fear for this generation and their entitlement syndrome….”
++++++
Your advise is falling on deaf ears. Dont waste your time.

As for the interest rates back then.
I remember paying 22% for a new bike loan($6k) in 1984.
A friend had a new truck loan(14k) for 24%.

Yeah it was all “peaches and cream” for Boomers. We had it easy.

#111 Dana Smith on 05.21.18 at 7:38 pm

To Sandy Santos

It is true that most Canadians don’t plan ahead their finances. They are squandering their money away big time.

We have maxed out our TFSA’s and RRSP’s with just GIC’s and have now over $490,000 after 10 years. We are making $14,000 a year in compound interest tax sheltered and some tax free.

Our 2 adult kids 18, 19 already have TFSA’s $15,000 each from summer job earnings.

Our strength is working as a family unit and not in high returns with higher risk but making sure we save at least 20% a year in TFSA’s, RRSP’s, RRSP tax refunds.

We have a paid off house just last year worth $400,000 and no debts at all. All cars, furniture etc. all paid cash.

We are only 42 and we know will have a net worth of $2,000,000 by the time we are both 55 years old.

GICs offer subpar returns. You are doing yourself no service. – Garth

#112 SoggyShorts on 05.21.18 at 8:16 pm

#111 Dana Smith on 05.21.18 at 7:38 pm
Our 2 adult kids 18, 19 already have TFSA’s $15,000 each from summer job earnings.
******************************
If your 18 year old has $15,000 in his TFSA, he is screwed.
You only get 5,500 per year contribution room after you turn 18. This means he has over contributed nearly $10,000, and is going to have to pay 1% per month in penalties.

#113 yvr_lurker on 05.21.18 at 11:20 pm

# 103 with the long life story….

——————
Your story was interesting to read for sure, but I think you have made some assumptions on who might have made the #30 post. It is not what you think.
This post is now outdated, but just for the record we are a household in our early 50s living in urban Vancouver who were FORTUNATE to have bought at the right time (late 1990s ) and now have a paid off place on the Westside of Vancouver at around 2.2M. Even with our combined 6 figure salaries (around 320K per year total), it would be IMPOSSIBLE to get a foothold in this city without some family resources(i.e. family $$$) if we were to start now. It is just much more difficult in YVR for young people (without inheritances) to begin to plan families and achieve some stability. From stagnant wages, to huge increases in the cost of rentals in the past 5 years, to the huge run-up in the condo market due to speculation and poor controls, to starter houses in Langley going for around 800K, it is just much more difficult than it was for us. This is a fact. Nobody is entitled to a cheap house in a desirable urban setting. However, the cost of just even renting some decent place (with low YVR salaries… nowhere close to matching what there is in SFO or NYC) has ballooned in recent years. The NDP was elected with a platform to curb speculation on all fronts; from greedy developers, overseas money, casino laundered cash and the likes. I work with young people (in their 20s) every day, and I have much understanding of their predicament.

I don’t know if you live in a rural setting, but if you do live in YVR I suggest you get out from your time-machine and try to understand and have some empathy for the people trying to have a life similar to the dreams you had when you were first setting out. In YVR it is just much more difficult (unless you have the bank of mom and dad to forge over a few hundred K).

#114 Midnights on 05.22.18 at 12:51 am

#66 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.21.18 at 12:45 am
Canada’s Debt Spiral……interesting article from the Mises Institute
https://mises.org/wire/canadas-debt-spiral
———————————
Good article

#115 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 05.22.18 at 2:54 am

Too late to the party…

I wish I could live in states and get a green card…

very sad…..

#116 You know val on 05.22.18 at 3:25 am

Garth what’s to stop the big 6 banks from rasing rates again without Boc ?? As just witnessed

#117 Tina Longworth on 05.22.18 at 9:32 am

I agree with Garth that GIC rates are not the best you can do with your money. It looks to me Dana Smith and family is really only focused on saving alot and maximizing tax sheltered accounts, RRSP, TFSA etc.

Compound interest these days does not work that well like back when I was in school 20 years ago. GIC rates were 4.5% to 5.0% as I remember it.

I guess if a couple saves alot, double or triple than most people then they are willing to live with 3% or more GIC rates.

For example, they are supposedly saving 20% or more of their income, say $20,000 a year at 3% over the next 25 years is $729,185 versus getting 6.5% on $10,000 saved a year which would be $588,876.

They are more comfortable and able to sleep at night saving much more and getting 50% to 60% lower returns.

#118 Dan Lancaster on 05.22.18 at 10:08 am

To Soggy Shorts

Wasn’t there a one time $10,000 TFSA contribution limit in the past?

#119 World Traveller on 05.22.18 at 2:57 pm

Glad about two things, that I got out of the GTA market a few years back and that I have a EU passport, RE in Spain is cheap, get an apartment for 100,000 euros and work online. what a dream!

#120 Scott Cordielle on 05.22.18 at 4:33 pm

We sold our house in January-2018 for $2,000,000 and bought it back in 1996 for $580,000 including all costs of improvements etc.

It was a good capital gain tax free of $1,420,000 or around a 11% a year or 20% after tax per year. We are in a high tax bracket.

We have now $139,000 in TFSA’s and $1,500,000 in RRSP’s, $1,500,000 in non-registered accounts which we will live off at age 55 years old now. We sold our practice.

We only need a 2.25% withdrawal rate as we have no debts. Our investments are turning out 5%+ dividends and bond interest a year. Our investments are where we need to be and who cares about real estate.

We can easily have our money grow by $100,000 to $120,000 a year from now on.

#121 IMHO on 05.23.18 at 2:31 pm

Baltimore? Surely you jest.

Baltimore newspapers have a homicide webpage…now you don’t see that everyday.

https://homicides.news.baltimoresun.com/