Collateral damage

Realtors made official Tuesday what this pathetic blog has been telling you lately. And look at the words used describe things: “destabilized,” “lowered,” and (my fav) “collateral damage.” The numbers pretty much speak for themselves:

  • Sales were down on average across the nation by 14%.
  • April is always better than March. But not this year. Big drop.
  • 60% of Canadian markets are going in reverse.
  • The price of houses nationally has fallen 11.3% in a year.
  • The most damage is being done in the GTA and the LM. No surprise there.
  • Blame the mortgage stress test.

“The stress-test that came into effect this year for homebuyers with more than a twenty percent down payment continued to cast its shadow over sales activity in April,” says CREA’s president. “This year’s new stress test has lowered sales activity and destabilized market balance for housing markets in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador Provinces,” says the group’s economist. “This is exactly the type of collateral damage that CREA warned the government about. As provinces whose economic prospects have faced difficulties because they are closely tied to those of natural resources, it is puzzling that the government would describe the effect of its new policy as intended consequences.”

What a suite of problems faces housing. The stress test, sure. But also those damn taxes – on Chinese dudes, Albertans with cottages, people with vacation condos, second homes, pied-à-terres or under-utilized lovenests. Layered on is the quantitative tightening of central banks. After almost a decade of slathering liquidity over the economy, they’re now hoovering it up.

And this is what it looks like:

Behold the spike in yield yesterday for the five-year Government of Canada bond. That happened while US Treasuries were also romping higher, causing the stock market to sell off a little as investors resigned themselves to as many as three more rate hikes this year by the Fed. With 10-year, risk-free bonds now paying more than 3%, why take a gamble to get 4% with a stock that could decline in value? So, equities fade.

By the way that bond chart above is meaningful if you have a mortgage renewing this year. The banks’ lending rates are closely tied to the yield on five-year government notes, so this will give you an indication of where things are headed. No, rates are not spiking, exploding or careening higher. It’s more like the water in Grand Forks – every day it creeps up your pant leg a little, and there’s not a thing you can do about it. Except leave.

Clearly that’s what a lot of people are doing. Today’s numbers confirm buyers have retreated during what is normally the peak season for residential real estate. This suggests when spring’s over and the summer doldrums hit, followed by the next icy blast, the market could be further destabilized. Damaged. None of the big factors – the stress test, punitive taxes nor rising rates – will be gone by the end of 2018.

Nor will politicians. The series of blunders being made by governments at all levels is epic. Raising taxes will not lower house prices, for example. And now comes word (C.D. Howe Institute) that provincial over-regulation and municipal gouging have added $168,000 to the price of the average new GTA house and boosted the cost of a new-build in Vancouver a stunning $644,000. In other cities, more pain – an extra $264,000 in Victoria, $152,000 in Calgary and $112,000 in Ottawa.

There’s a reason houses in the States cost a fraction of what they do here, where people make about the same and families are less in debt than they were a decade ago. Keep voting the way you are and we’ll soon be buying yurts.

191 comments ↓

#1 Trawna on 05.15.18 at 4:09 pm

First is the worst.

#2 Stan Brooks on 05.15.18 at 4:12 pm

Is there more important topics on this world than the price of ultra-sub-standard real estate (i.e cardboard particles homes with no backyard and glass condos with huge maintenance and huge heat footprints and fees in a third class crowded sh..ty cities with horrendous traffic, third world class food and no entertainment withing 800 km whatsoever?

Obviously bough by brainwashed ‘can’t think for themselves ‘rich wanna be’s ” who have inferiority complexes due to the small size of their dicks (don’t forget, it is freezing here and.or unbearably humid most of the year)

Isn’t there some more important topics to discuss?

Oh, I forgot, this is the mental institution program schedule for the next 25 years.

#3 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.15.18 at 4:14 pm

“THE NEW VANCOUVER”

In 2016 Victoria realtors claimed demand from various sources of outside buyers would keep sales at 2016 levels. They claimed 2016 sales levels were the “new normal”.

This was obviously an attempt to create even more FOMO (fear of missing out). Their message: “If you don’t buy now you’ll never get in because buyers from (insert location here) have created a new normal for demand in Victoria and prices will soar year after year as Victoria becomes the new Vancouver.”

Realtor FOMO was so out of control in Victoria back then that on January 3, 2017, the realtors at Victoria’s R/E board claimed “demand likely to continue in 2017”.

But they were way off with that bit of FOMO as detached sales fell -23% in 2017 compared to 2016.

And 2018 is tracking even lower than 2017 with sales of detached homes – 43% lower than in 2016.

MORE FOMO

Recently the local board released another “It’s different here” statement. This time apparently guaranteeing that falling demand won’t result in falling prices in Victoria.

“Slower start to spring does not signal lower prices for Victoria real estate market”. – May 1, 2018

REALITY

Hundreds of years of world housing bubble history has proven that all housing bubbles go through major price corrections that bring prices back to the long-term mean. Several years, even a decade or two, of price gains routinely get wiped out in a relatively short period of time as bubbles deflate and prices inevitably fall back to be reunited with long-term economic fundamentals.

THE SIGNAL

It isn’t rocket science. History has shown that bloated housing markets warn buyers and sellers ahead of time that prices will be falling soon with a simple signal. And that unmistakable signal is falling sales / declining demand.

What will happen soon with Victoria’s housing market is clear.

“IT’S DIFFERENT HERE”

Claiming that falling sales isn’t a signal for future price declines is something only those who depend on the sale of houses would make.

Prediction: Another FOMO-generating prediction that goes south.

#4 B20 Bust on 05.15.18 at 4:15 pm

In April, 25% of homes in Victoria sold over asking. If that is a slow or declining market, then I think most sellers and homeowners will be happy.

In South Vancouver Island, which means communities north of Victoria, quality houses are still selling in a day for over ask. They are selling above 2017 prices and above the inflated 2018 assessments. If the houses are not quality, they may take weeks or months, but they are still selling – and selling 30-50% above their price 2 years ago.

At a time when the B20 pre-approvals were all expired, April saw a resurgence of the market. This was odd as things were cool for months. Sales of good properties continue to be brisk in May.

The outflow of capital from ‘cashed out’ Lower Mainlanders, primarily boomers, continues to swallow any decent property. Prices here, just like in Vancouver, have become detached from local incomes as the affordability crisis spreads to more corners of the province.

Inventory continues to be limited, hence the decline in sales.

Many are hoping for a deluge of listings to soften prices, but as its May, and none is forthcoming, that ship has sailed for another year.

Retirees and ‘cashed out Vancouverites’ who just moved here are not planning on on going anywhere else regardless of price action. Those waiting, will be waiting a long time for that much hoped for supply…

Vancouver Island does not rely on a supply of laundered money or over leveraged newbie money to keep the RE show going. Even all the secondary markets on the Island continue to see prices above 2017 and sales within days because the pool of retirees and cashed out lower mainlanders, and those fleeing Vancouver’s prices, provide an never ending pool of potential buyers.

B20 is an absolute bust here. One of a dozen failed federal measures to cool the market. I can only speak about the Island, but those measures have utterly failed to pierce the market.

But don’t worry, in another 6 months there will be a new ‘market killer’ measure announced here that will give all the renters ‘hope’ that the crash is around the corner. For the 11th year that is…

The uneducated snivelling realtors have it right when it comes to this place – and all the arm chair analysts and economists have it wrong.

Sales are 35% lower than this time last year. – Garth

#5 Lunpia on 05.15.18 at 4:18 pm

Rents should also go down. Nowadays it’s 1600 to 1800 for a studio downtown. Last year it was around 1400 to 1500. Only instagram models can afford the rent. Unbelievable!

#6 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.15.18 at 4:19 pm

TRUE OR FALSE (searching for a grain of truth in the unsubstantiated claims of Vancouver Island realtors)

* “Those waiting on the sidelines to buy in Victoria will miss out. It’s different here because Victoria has…”
False. Hundreds of years of world housing bubble history proves that all housing bubbles go through major price corrections, regardless of any correction-proof advantages over other markets dreamed up by realtors from that market.

* “Demand for detached houses in Victoria will never fall. Buyers from Vancouver are buying up local housing.”
False. Demand has already fallen significantly which makes the unsubstantiated Vancouver buyer claim a moot point. Each month this year has seen slower sales than last year. Based on the Victoria R/E board numbers, detached sales have fallen by – 18% from last year (January through April), – 43% from 2016 and – 14% from 2015.

* “House prices in Victoria won’t correct because demand from Vancouver buyers is high.”
False. As stated above, demand has already fallen significantly and history has shown that all housing bubbles go through major corrections that bring prices back to the long-term mean. Millions of families worldwide have been financially ruined as a result of buying in a bubble at bloated price levels.

#7 Lee on 05.15.18 at 4:31 pm

#5 Lunpia,

Where? In Toronto, Kansas?

#8 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 05.15.18 at 4:32 pm

I know a lot of people have criticized me for citing 2013 as the peak/plateau of Canadian RE pricing. Based on a few sources, some public, some proprietary. However, add Stats Can to the list of organizations which have written to disprove vigorous RE gains in the post-2013 era.

https://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/171207/dq171207b-eng.htm

“The principal residence was the largest asset, accounting for more than one-third of the total value of assets. For those who owned their principal residence, the median reported value was $349,000, up 10.3% from 2012 and double that of 1999. ”

10.3% sounds pretty similar to the sort of gain seen between 2012 and 2013, into the final run-up of the market until Flaherty put the brakes on with Budget 2013 by changes to the CMHC subprime mortgage insurance program. Therefore it logically follows that in the 2013-present era, there has been little price change on individual identical housing units in Canada. Certainly not the vast mid-double-digits “gains” claimed by the RE sell-siders who are mostly not adjusting their figures for the dramatic shift to the sales mix.

Bank credit spreads have also been expanding since, on account of the decreasing credit-worthiness of Canadian RE-backed borrowers and the fact that appreciation itself (mostly non-existent in the post-2013 era) will not longer ensure a mortgage portfolio LTV required to maintain market confidence.

#9 Stan Brooks on 05.15.18 at 4:32 pm

#5 Lunpia on 05.15.18 at 4:18 pm
Rents should also go down. Nowadays it’s 1600 to 1800 for a studio downtown. Last year it was around 1400 to 1500. Only instagram models can afford the rent. Unbelievable!

——————————-

Premier mental institutions demand premier prices.

But this one comes with a twist: it takes your money and says ‘we shall see’ about results.

#10 B20 Bust on 05.15.18 at 4:33 pm

Sales are 35% lower than this time last year. – Garth

——-

In Victoria yes, but not all the surrouding communites.

And how many years have we brought forward metrics like these that have failed to yield price declines?

Sales are low due to low inventory. Prices remain high and will continue as long as there is low inventory.

We saw the ‘decline in sales as the precursor to price declines’ meme in Vancouver many times over the past decade.

Good ol VREU has always pointed out declining sales in Victoria as the precursor to price declines around the corner – but every year she highlighted this, prices went higher 15-30% in Victoria and the Capital Regional District.

#11 BobC on 05.15.18 at 4:43 pm

I hope I’m right this time when I say cash is king again.

#12 NoName on 05.15.18 at 4:44 pm

I did posted few days ago abut increse in rate for 30y mrtg rates in us, now they rose to 10yrs high, 4&3/4 0 4&7/8. wow

bonus link
is subprime back?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EQFXSUBPRIME036061

#13 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 05.15.18 at 4:46 pm

“Sales are low due to low inventory. Prices remain high and will continue as long as there is low inventory.”

Or maybe the ‘low inventory’ is because prices are low, and going lower, not high. Usually higher prices brings more ‘inventory’ to market. Not the other way around. Didn’t we learn in Grade 2 Economics that higher prices stimulate more supply?

I personally believe that when average people go to list their houses with their Realtors, they’re in disbelief, generally, at how low the comps are coming in, and decide not to proceed with an elective sale. The comps being low because prices haven’t appreciated on individual identical units anywhere near the extent that people might see when they look at the non-sales-mix adjusted figures that the Realtors like to print in the newspapers. That lay people inappropriately extrapolate to their own personal situations with their ownership of 1 or two individual units.

#14 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.15.18 at 5:02 pm

We were so proud to avoid a recession in ‘09 . Our banks and economy are as “ solid as the Canadian Shield “ sang the pompous little phart know here as “ the elfin deity”.So proudly Canadian, so different here, smugly better and wiser than the greedy morons down south and so fiscally responsible. CMHC, BOC, 40 year amortizations, no money down, mortgage money for less than the rate of inflation, endless enabling from all levels of government to pump the housing market to unimaginable levels, FOMO, HAM, etc. etc. ad nauseum. Fog a mirror ? Step right up and get your below inflation rate mortgage and HELOC here. Don’t miss out ! Yup, we avoided a recession and were the envy of the rest of the world. Yay us ! Way to go Harper government !hahhaha. The next decade should be interesting.

#15 Colin on 05.15.18 at 5:11 pm

Ottawa recently announced that is has approved the expansion of the LRT in the south. The City’s $30 million portion will be paid by additional development charges collected by new home builders in the area. There is no end to how a city feels it can make money on the backs of homeowners.

#16 Steven Rowlandson on 05.15.18 at 5:20 pm

Sales were down on average across the nation by 14%.
April is always better than March. But not this year. Big drop.
60% of Canadian markets are going in reverse.
The price of houses nationally has fallen 11.3% in a year.
The most damage is being done in the GTA and the LM. No surprise there.Blame the mortgage stress test.

This is just toe nail clipping. The cancer that will kill the patient is still there and is still alive and well.
When you can buy a home on one income based on 3 years pay or less earning minimum wage and support a family then things will be alright in the real estate market and the country and not before.

#17 Shortymac on 05.15.18 at 5:22 pm

Ahhhh so that is why my old real estate agent has come begging to me recently to buy a place.

I still think some people are pretty delusional and won’t budge. Plenty of homes in the 700k-800k range in south rexdale, the westway, and downsview.

I thought about vulching now but I should be better off next year to handle it and people should be more willing to negotiate.

#18 Zapstrap on 05.15.18 at 5:24 pm

Realtors made official Tuesday what this pathetic blog has been telling you lately. And look at the words used describe things: “destabilized,” “lowered,” and (my fav) “collateral damage.”

Ever notice how these guy’s use the politician’s favorite words. Like they have a special dictionary of bafflegab that hides the truth. Moving forward …

#19 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.15.18 at 5:42 pm

@#10 B20 Blithering
“Sales are low due to low inventory. Prices remain high and will continue as long as there is low inventory.”
+++++

Do you even read what you write?

Sales are low…..period.
Hence sales are dropping….period.
Prices remain high….. hence …not selling….. hence… Low sales.

“Prices will remain high as long as there is low inventory”…….you make no sense.

Prices remain high because sellers are idiots that havnt realized what’s happening OR they are hoping beyond hope there is a greaterfool out there dumb enough to buy into this collapsing sh!tstorm you call a market.

You remind me of an Outhouse pump truck driver.

Just keep pumping real estate….you get used to the smell eventually

#20 theoryAndPractice on 05.15.18 at 5:51 pm

#4 B20 Bust on 05.15.18 at 4:15 pm
In April, 25% of homes in Victoria sold over asking. If that is a slow or declining market, then I think most sellers and homeowners will be happy.
===================================
This just reminds me recent discussion on 9 vs 20. It just depends how you word it, %122 and %222 both correct in the context the way it is explained. But reality is %222. So by rewording what exactly you are measuring you can also tell %122, obviously preferred for a reason.

If I get back to your statement, what does that prove ? May be they listed at %50 discount price :). it is just number game like “sold over asking price” . When you sold 1 cent over the list price the statement is still true.

#21 Cori on 05.15.18 at 5:54 pm

I am still wondering why Toronto, Brampton and some areas are still looking good. They are still overasked.

https://www.zolo.ca/toronto-real-estate/trends

#22 XBB on 05.15.18 at 5:57 pm

ytd; -1.31%

3 yr average- +1.38

can’t beat inflation. The bond bull market is adios.

Only unschooled investors think you buy bonds for capital growth. – Garth

#23 Yorkville Renter on 05.15.18 at 5:57 pm

Yes, but these Yurts have granite counters and stainless steel appliances!

#24 Mithan on 05.15.18 at 5:59 pm

Garth, you said that “raising taxes will not lower home prices here”.

I don’t understand this, wouldn’t higher taxes lower overall affordability and ultimately lower home prices?

#25 westcoastguy on 05.15.18 at 5:59 pm

Real Mark or the fake Mark or whoever Mark … can we stop talking about 2013 and focus on 2018 and beyond?

#26 Willy H on 05.15.18 at 6:04 pm

The CD Howe Institute did not do much in the way of research on land cost speculation.

Yes, Greenbelt protections may indeed drive up prices. These protections also raise the values of homes built around the protected area and prevent even greater gridlock. These protections might even result in some city kids spotting a deer 50 clicks outside the city centre!

Municipal development taxes have always been under the radar. Yes, they can be rather high. However these development costs pay for very expensive infrastructure, road widening, libraries, community centres and much much more as communities rapidly expand.

Why should pre-existing rate payers pony up all these costs?

#27 Jay (not that one) on 05.15.18 at 6:07 pm

I’m no fan of additional taxes, but the stress test is something I’m 100% in favor of.

Higher rates are coming, and my tax dollars backstop the banks. I prefer them being forced to behave as if they’re thinking about 5 minutes in the future when rates are higher. If some people can’t buy houses as a result, then mission accomplished.

#28 Guy in Calgary on 05.15.18 at 6:09 pm

Going to hit up a patio with my realtor friend later today. I can’t wait to ask the hard hitting questions over a couple cold ones!

#29 Our pal val on 05.15.18 at 6:10 pm

Remax Lepage and all the outlets are all u.s. Companies that brought subprime to our door step… the trial experiment was in the United States which failed …now it’s new and improved formula for Canadian suckers is here…..Canada we need to build a wall too.

#30 Linda on 05.15.18 at 6:11 pm

While it is interesting to hear about housing prices dropping in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Newfoundland & Labrador, the fact is that housing costs in those parts of the country were not that high compared to Ontario/BC. Of the 3 provinces mentioned, the highest average house costs were in Alberta @ $400K, whereas Sask/Nfld-Lab were both under $300K average price. Compare that to BC (in the $669K range) & Ontario (in the $557K range).

So for the 3 provinces cited, housing affordability isn’t an issue. Income sufficient to pass the stress test is. In boom times, not normally a problem. If oil prices continue to recover, so too may the housing markets in the oil producing provinces.

#31 James on 05.15.18 at 6:12 pm

“Good ol VREU has always pointed out declining sales in Victoria as the precursor to price declines around the corner – but every year she highlighted this, prices went higher 15-30% in Victoria and the Capital Regional District.”

Just because a prediction isn’t met within a given timeframe does not mean the predicted outcome will never happen.

Looking at historical real estate bubbles (what VREU and Garth et al have done) is helpful to know WHAT will happen, but not always when.

That WHAT they’ve been talking about is happening now.

… and because everyone likes quotes: “Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

#32 Lunpia on 05.15.18 at 6:14 pm

#7 and #9 Downtown Toronto

#33 Kelsey on 05.15.18 at 6:15 pm

“Raising taxes will not lower house prices”.

Respectfully disagree here Garth. While I don’t think new taxes are the answer they do diminish the value of an asset. For example, if everyone’s property taxes went up by an amount equal to 1% of the value of their home then the present value of those cash outlays need to be subtracted from the current value of the home, either because the buyer is rational enough to consider this or because the bank won’t loan as much money.

This is how local governments are likely to attempt to confiscate wealth to shore up underfunded pensions. An immovable asset is a sitting duck for our profligate government overlords.

http://midwest.chicagofedblogs.org/?p=3096

#34 Debtslavecreator on 05.15.18 at 6:16 pm

10 years from now the majority of these recent glass condo buyers will be broke and likely homeless as the non stop special assessments and sharply rising condo fees drive unit values down 60-70-80 %. Many will simply walk away
I cannot understate how big an issue this will be in a few years
Attempts to sue the builders for fraudulent building practices will mostly go unsuccessful
The big banks are likely a great short in the next few days if you’re a high risk investor with a time horizon of 12 months or so
There’s no way their forward guidance is going to make shareholders happy
Buckle up fellow Canucks
It’s goin to be wild over the next 4-5 years

#35 Ex-Cowtown on 05.15.18 at 6:17 pm

#10 B20 Bust on 05.15.18 at 4:33 pm
Sales are 35% lower than this time last year. – Garth

——-

In Victoria yes, but not all the surrouding communites.

And how many years have we brought forward metrics like these that have failed to yield price declines?

Sales are low due to low inventory. Prices remain high and will continue as long as there is low inventory.

We saw the ‘decline in sales as the precursor to price declines’ meme in Vancouver many times over the past decade.

Good ol VREU has always pointed out declining sales in Victoria as the precursor to price declines around the corner – but every year she highlighted this, prices went higher 15-30% in Victoria and the Capital Regional District.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

If you’re right, what is driving the prices higher? Can’t be Albertans as they are now viewed and treated as the Great Satans and have pulled back accordingly.

Can’t be low interest rates as now they’re climbing.

Can’t be Vancouver escapees as sales have cratered so they aren’t selling and escaping anymore.

Can’t be Victoria escapees as sales have cratered so they aren’t selling and escaping anymore.

If the markets are climbing (as you claim) what is driving it. And please don’t say “Everyone wants to live here!”. That’s a non-answer.

My gut reaction is that the momentum-slosh over from Van and Vic in to up-Island markets is just around 60 days behind as that is what normal possession dates are. Tap is likely to be turned off…wait for it…. oops… Now….

#36 I’m stupid on 05.15.18 at 6:20 pm

#15 Colin

Ottawa recently announced that is has approved the expansion of the LRT in the south. The City’s $30 million portion will be paid by additional development charges collected by new home builders in the area. There is no end to how a city feels it can make money on the backs of homeowners.
– —

Who should pay for funding the expansion then? It’s only fitting that the ones using it pay for it. Should the Govt build it and collect the capital gains the homes near transit get? Should people who never use it pay for it? What about people that live in another province, they should pay. Better yet let’s make the Russians pay for the lrt expansion in Ottawa. Give me a break, everyone wants something for nothing.

#37 VREU Fact Checker on 05.15.18 at 6:33 pm

Oh VREU, are you still touting the ‘look at falling sales’ angle as you have done for the past three years?

A couple of questions:

During the past three years of sales going down, what did prices do? Right, they went up 30-50% in Victoria and all the surrounding communities.

Do you think declining sales have anything to do with inventory? If there is no inventory, as there has not been for years, what do you think that does to your sales numbers.

As for Vancouver buyers, you try to dismiss a realtor narrative that Victoria prices will not fall because of the never ending flow of Vancouver buyers. You state that this is false because ‘demand has already falling significantly.’ But whose demand – those of local buyers or the Vancouver buyers? You can have a huge slump in local demand because of the B20 stress test, but still have Vancouver buyers making the majority of purchases. The latter is more likely as B20 is in full effect and prices are still high; many houses selling for over asking; short DOMs; and prices reaching new heights.

#38 Capt. Serious on 05.15.18 at 6:36 pm

Christmas conversations this year are going to be fun.

#39 Penny Henny on 05.15.18 at 6:43 pm

#31 James on 05.15.18 at 6:12 pm
“Good ol VREU has always pointed out declining sales in Victoria as the precursor to price declines around the corner – but every year she highlighted this, prices went higher 15-30% in Victoria and the Capital Regional District.”

Just because a prediction isn’t met within a given timeframe does not mean the predicted outcome will never happen.
/////////////////////

100% correct.
A friend of mine thinks gold is going to $5000 an ounce.
I think it’s a great prediction and since he has given no timeline there is no doubt in my mind he will be wrong. EVER!

Not like Mark. Or ‘The real Mark’, you know, the delusional one.

#40 crdt on 05.15.18 at 6:45 pm

“And now comes word (C.D. Howe Institute) that provincial over-regulation and municipal gouging have added $168,000 to the price of the average new GTA house and boosted the cost of a new-build in Vancouver a stunning $644,000. In other cities, more pain – an extra $264,000 in Victoria, $152,000 in Calgary and $112,000 in Ottawa.”

None of the above regulations were designed to reduce the price of real estate. It was in my opinion the governments cashing in on the bubble…

#41 Island Analyst on 05.15.18 at 6:48 pm

#29 Ex-Cowtown on 05.15.18 at 6:17 pm

If you’re right, what is driving the prices higher? Can’t be Albertans as they are now viewed and treated as the Great Satans and have pulled back accordingly.

Can’t be low interest rates as now they’re climbing.

Can’t be Vancouver escapees as sales have cratered so they aren’t selling and escaping anymore.

Can’t be Victoria escapees as sales have cratered so they aren’t selling and escaping anymore.

If the markets are climbing (as you claim) what is driving it. And please don’t say “Everyone wants to live here!”. That’s a non-answer.

My gut reaction is that the momentum-slosh over from Van and Vic in to up-Island markets is just around 60 days behind as that is what normal possession dates are. Tap is likely to be turned off…wait for it…. oops… Now….

————

The tap was turned off for a while. There was a rush of sales in November and December in South Island, and then a trickle in Feb and March. But then April came and it went ballistic.

I have reviewed the realtor data, readily available from any realtor if you sign up. As a layman, I can see DOMs, price reductions, closing dates and sale price.

I have tracked this data for years, and this has been the hottest April with solid over ask bids with closing dates 1 or 2 days after the listing is first posted.

The data only shows ‘sold’ once the official closing has taken place, so its a shock to see a listing and then a sale the next day with the closed sale price.

A couple of explanations:

* anything outside of the CRD is exempt from the spec tax and foreign buyers tax, so likely some buyers there

* rents have gone exponential, and there are no homes for rent, and rent is almost the same as mortgages now, so some families have bit the bullet and had to buy

* Vancouver boomers cashing out and moving to the Island

I will be paying $10 bucks a title search on about a dozen properties that sold in a day well well over ask. For $120 bucks, I will do my own trend analysis as realtors cannot tell you who bought it (and you can cross reference names with locales through ‘google’ to see where the buyers are from.

#42 MSM-Free Zone on 05.15.18 at 6:51 pm

#14 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.15.18 at 5:02 pm
____________________________________

Can’t argue with that.

This blog can whine about dippers, comrades, lefties, etc. trying to ‘fix’ the housing problem all it wants but, as FFW above correctly pointed out, it was right-wing Conservative Hapercrites that incubated this Canadian housing bubble in the first place, with predictable results.

Not exactly. The lion’s share of the blame should rest with accommodative monetary policy, set by the independent central bank. – Garth

#43 Penny Henny on 05.15.18 at 6:53 pm

VREU is Mark’s sister :-0

#37 VREU Fact Checker on 05.15.18 at 6:33 pm
Oh VREU, are you still touting the ‘look at falling sales’ angle as you have done for the past three years?

#44 Lee on 05.15.18 at 6:53 pm

#32 Lunpia,

Closets don’t count. Have to be real apartments with washrooms and kitchens.

#45 MaxBerniersShorts on 05.15.18 at 6:56 pm

We should watch who we vote for? In BC the biggest price run-up came under the watchful eyes of the Federal Tories and right-wing BC Liberals, how do you explain that?

#46 georgist on 05.15.18 at 6:56 pm

> Raising taxes will not lower house prices,

You say the stress test will lower prices. Because people can borrow less.

So imagine you walk into the mortgage stress test. Some kid tells you:

“you earn 100k, your outgoings are 30k, we will lend you 250k.”

Now in an alternate universe they put taxes up by 2k.

Now the spotty kid says:

“you earn 100k, your outgoings are 32k, we will lend you 240k.”

Putting taxes up reduces disposable income which reduces prices.

If you tax land instead of income you will see house prices tank as the speculators will have to pass their gains back into the system. It’s called “zero dead weight”. They cannot pass on the tax because they already demand the monopoly price.

Garth – you surely must have heard of all these terms? Did you do econ at uni?

This is the basis of the proposition of land value tax.

The stress test is not a tax. – Garth

#47 Penny Henny on 05.15.18 at 6:56 pm

#39 Penny Henny on 05.15.18 at 6:43 pm
#31 James on 05.15.18 at 6:12 pm
“Good ol VREU has always pointed out declining sales in Victoria as the precursor to price declines around the corner – but every year she highlighted this, prices went higher 15-30% in Victoria and the Capital Regional District.”

Just because a prediction isn’t met within a given timeframe does not mean the predicted outcome will never happen.
/////////////////////

100% correct.
A friend of mine thinks gold is going to $5000 an ounce.
I think it’s a great prediction and since he has given no timeline there is no doubt in my mind he will be wrong. EVER!
Ha! I meant to type ‘there is no doubt in my mind he will never be wrong’.

Take that Delusional Mark :[email protected]

#48 MSM-Free Zone on 05.15.18 at 6:56 pm

“…..The president of Toronto’s real estate board had warned leaders of the Ontario Real Estate Association, headed by a former Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak , to “stay in their lane” in an emphatic letter laying out concerns that the provincial organization was stoking fears about the housing market and becoming too political…..”
_________________________________________

“….The internal strife is typical of industry associations that have different tentacles or sometimes local, provincial and national arms, said James McKeller at the Brookfield Centre in Real Estate & Infrastructure at York University’s Schulich School of Business…..”

“It’s hard to figure out the motives of both of these organizations. They pretend they’re representing the public, but they’ve never given any evidence of that in the past,” he said…..”

#49 pay your taxes on 05.15.18 at 6:57 pm

We constantly hear about the “sales mix” from a regular commenter here. Does the sales mix affect stats in the same way when the market is in decline? I live in YVR and the doom and gloom of this blog isn’t reflected in daily life. How much does a house dropping from 3 million to 1.8 million affect the overall stats for price declines? We all know the high end of the market is getting slaughtered but I’m not so sure about the rest

#50 Darryl on 05.15.18 at 6:58 pm

I saw an NDP paid commercial featuring AH and she states “it’s time for the rich to pay a little more ”
Snuggling up to The federal other NDP leader Justine T.

#51 $1 Trillion Trump deficits on 05.15.18 at 7:08 pm

The US is subsidizing its economy to the tune of $1 trillion a year and rising in budget deficit, $21.2 Trillion national debt and $4.4 trillion on the Fed balance sheet. No other country could get away with what Trump is doing. He’s behaving worse than Mugabe in Zimbabwe. So hardly a fair comparison to Canada.

On that note, why do Canadian bond yields track US bond yields, albeit at a lower rate? It doesn’t even make sense. We’re not trying to offload $1 trillion in govt debt onto the bond market the way the US is. Their treasury auctions have been a disaster btw. There just isn’t enough demand out there for what they’re trying to offload. All we’re adding is about $15 billion in annual federal deficit.

Germany only has to pay 0.6% on its 10 year Bunds. Granted they’re in much better shape than us. Helps to have trade unions make up half of corporate boards. Canada pays 2.4% and the US spiked well over 3% today on its 10 year.

#52 Ian on 05.15.18 at 7:08 pm

Have to love the CREA! ‘All the responsible people with a 20% down’

So we’ll not discuss, then, the people using 20-1 leverage who bought at the top of the market and wonder why no one is helping them.

I just love the CREA picking and choosing! Next Hudak will chime in with ‘we need more housing supply!’

Bears on the march. This year it all comes home to roost. And I can’t wait for the Ontario market to finally have transparency like NS and the US.

NO AREA of the GTA will be safe. No category of property, nothing. Don’t buy into the bull rubbish. It’s all lies.

Keep renting in the GTA folks!

#53 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 05.15.18 at 7:08 pm

Salaries in U.S are way more higher. When you factor in the exchange rate its almost double. Plus you get to deduct the mortgage, pay lower taxes, buy things much cheaper and you end up living the American Dream. The Canadian dream is just being gouged from left right and center. I was polite when I used the word Gouge instead of something else.

As posted here days ago US and Canadian median national household incomes are almost identical, even factoring in the currency differential. – Garth

#54 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 05.15.18 at 7:09 pm

Now something will try to counter my argument by saying …. but but but … we have free healthcare.

#55 Jake Schwartz on 05.15.18 at 7:10 pm

I have no sympathy for those that bought big houses and did not care for cheap interest rates stealing from those actually being responsible saving and paying down debt. When the irresponsible were thinking piling on debt is not a big deal.

Soon, months maybe year from today 4% government bonds, strips and GIC’s will be here to stay.

#56 Smoking Man on 05.15.18 at 7:18 pm

Think everyone knows how I’m voting.
Coming back to Toronto for a week.

Sucks no Garth at general store, was going to visit last Sunday in may..

What hell is a yurts?

#57 Gold $5000? on 05.15.18 at 7:21 pm

Who let in the loons ?

Wasn’t gold suppose to already at $5000 just after 2008?

You lose

#58 Nonplused on 05.15.18 at 7:22 pm

Yurts are cool. You need a separate one for the kids though. If anyone is still having kids. They are very expensive.

Ah, if I could go back in time and talk to younger Nonplused, what a different life I would advise him to live! Work hard, live in a yurt, don’t have kids, retire at 45, and drive around the country in an RV for the rest of your life. Long days fishing every stream there is instead of driving to soccer practice. Come to think of it somebody did tell younger Nonplused that years ago but he was an old man and I didn’t listen. I wonder what ever happened to him. He just kind of appeared out of nowhere for a few months and then disappeared again. Like Gandalf.

#59 Ian on 05.15.18 at 7:22 pm

Garth, thank you for citing the CD Howe study. I would have mentioned that. The figure I heard (have not had the time to read it as yet) is $212k of friction.

People need to understand the ridiculous mistakes politicians are making. This bear would be well underway regardless. That’s what happens after an unprecedented 21 year bull market.

#60 Mark on 05.15.18 at 7:26 pm

“The big banks are likely a great short in the next few days if you’re a high risk investor with a time horizon of 12 months or so
There’s no way their forward guidance is going to make shareholders happy”

With spread expansion? A BoC that probably won’t be raising and probably will have to cut due to the slow economy? With the oil and gas loans probably turning the corner at this point?

I don’t see anything like that on the horizon personally. And if you recall the experience of the 1990s with falling house prices in Canada’s major cities, the banks absolutely cleaned up. Returning 300-400% on an investment made in the early 1990s by the end of the decade. Their wings only clipped by the tech bubble that unfolded at the time, and then Finance Minister Paul Martin’s rejection of bank merger proposals.

While there’s potentially sectors in the TSX that will outperform the banks going forward, shorting the banks, good grief, that’s like getting infront of a freight train and expecting the result to be anything different than the usual sort of consequences that arise from such.

#25 westcoastguy on 05.15.18 at 5:59 pm
Real Mark or the fake Mark or whoever Mark … can we stop talking about 2013 and focus on 2018 and beyond?

Sure, a very bright future for the Canadian stock market, and other asset classes inversely correlated to RE and the long-term credit cycle. A very dim future for RE and the overperforming (for the past 30-40 years) bond market.

Don’t get too carried away, of course, but it doesn’t take rocket science to imagine that an asset class (the TSX) trading at a trailing P/E of ~15, and growth in line with that of the economy, is likely to dramatically outperform minimal interest-paying bonds, or RE at a P/E of 40.

Or ‘The real Mark’, you know, the delusional one.

That’s a pretty bold thing to do, to make a psychiatric diagnosis of someone for whom you have not met. Either a very boorish tactic in debate, or very unprofessional conduct. Which is it?

#61 Blacksheep on 05.15.18 at 7:27 pm

Shawn of the banks # 161,
——————————————————
Bla, bla, bla, man you ramble on about irrelevant banking shit, no one cares about.

For those interested here it is kids, the holy grail of all things banking from the Bank of England:

chrome-extension://oemmndcbldboiebfnladdacbdfmadadm/https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf

A simple, to the point document that a grade 5 student could understand (Shawn struggles) that explains exactly how money creation works. Ignore every word Shawn or I, have ever typed and enlighten your asses.

First 2 pages tells the tale.

Shawn, you really need a new schtick, as this one has gotten quite boring……

#62 Reality is Stark on 05.15.18 at 7:30 pm

How high’s the water momma-“it’s 9 foot high and risin”.
Debt is like a rising flooding river. At first no one really notices it, but eventually it consumes everyone’s thoughts.
As private sector opportunities diminish public sector wages and benefits have to be adjusted. That will not happen in Canada because government jobs are prized by the new SJW sector of our population. They will hold the country for ransom. You need tough politicians to take these people on. Problem is that they are becoming the new politicians and they don’t care about debt.
Interest on the debt begins to crowd out money for important social services (especially as rates rise) forcing the government to raise your taxes.
Keep the people drunk on gender issues and let the water rise until everyone drowns.

#63 tccontrarian on 05.15.18 at 7:35 pm

#108 Tater on 05.15.18 at 7:48 am

“How contrarian! You truly are this generation’s great undiscovered investing mind.”
——————————————————–
And you, what’s YOUR claim to fame??

Here’s a list for you:
Mark Yusko
Kiril Sokoloff
Roger McNamee
Simon Mikhailovich
William White

I’d spend more energy in absorbing some of their investment wisdom, than trying to taunt some ‘unknown’ contrarian on a blog (just because you aren’t in agreement).

Besides, you know what they say about who laughs last…

TCC

#64 crossbordershopper on 05.15.18 at 7:42 pm

garth stopped at giving the second advantage of real estate costs in the usa. Interest and points write off’s. the amount of taxes that canadians pay and then with after tax dollars they pay their mortgage, man real suckers. and on top of that top dollar for the homes.
when do you start living your life, and not supporting the governemnt, the banks, the overpaid local civil servants with crazy property taxes.
it is not marginal we are talking huge difference, trump rocks,

#65 Bdog on 05.15.18 at 7:43 pm

Anyone listening to the SOLD podcast on CBC? Its pretty good. All about the RE mess in the 604

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/sold/

#66 FahtCoot on 05.15.18 at 7:44 pm

#14 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.15.18 at 5:02 pm
We were so proud to avoid a recession in ‘09 . Our banks and economy are as “ solid as the Canadian Shield “ sang the pompous little phart know here as “ the elfin deity”.So proudly Canadian, so different here, smugly better and wiser than the greedy morons down south and so fiscally responsible. CMHC, BOC, 40 year amortizations, no money down, mortgage money for less than the rate of inflation, endless enabling from all levels of government to pump the housing market to unimaginable levels, FOMO, HAM, etc. etc. ad nauseum. Fog a mirror ? Step right up and get your below inflation rate mortgage and HELOC here. Don’t miss out ! Yup, we avoided a recession and were the envy of the rest of the world. Yay us ! Way to go Harper government !hahhaha. The next decade should be interesting.

—————————————————

And to think, our banks only needed a 114B injection to stay afloat way back then !!

They needed nothing to stay afloat. Look at the profitability of each during that period. A lefty myth. The government action was insurance, and it worked. – Garth

#67 DRew on 05.15.18 at 7:50 pm

I guess you didn’t see the main banks lower their 5 year term mortgages…I didn’t see that coming…what is it 2.25% now? How are they making money?

Some variables went down, not fixed. Banks are drawing in clients at lower rates prior to them increasing and being snared. What was your point again? – Garth

#68 ANON on 05.15.18 at 7:53 pm

Git yo’ popcorn NOW, all y’all!
I ain’t sharing.

#69 greyhound on 05.15.18 at 7:58 pm

Meanwhile, US 2 yr paying 2.589% today. 100k invested pays $215.75/month. Why tie up for 10?

Why invest for fully-taxable interest when preferreds yield twice the return, tax-advantaged? – Garth

#70 georgist on 05.15.18 at 8:10 pm

> The stress test is not a tax. – Garth

Agreed, but that’s not what you said Garth, and I think you know that. I guess the political reflexes always remain.

You are clearly a smart guy, why not put your conservative instincts to bash all taxes to one side and look into land value tax.

Rent is just a tax, be it renting money from a bank to “buy” a house or renting directly. In both cases the person/company making the loan is doing so having explicit monopoly form the state. In both cases the tax is gain is privatised.

Land value tax simply says “the land is the common wealth, we should charge for access to it and compensate for being denied access to it”.

Land speculation is a bad thing. The benefactor doesn’t create the land, they simply exercise their monopoly over it.

Instead of taxing income, where people are actually doing work, we should tax land.

The world would be way better off.

Rentier activity is the root cause of this mess.

Cheers!

Land does not define wealth. It is immobile and often illiquid. Stop being feudal. – Garth

#71 KLNR on 05.15.18 at 8:11 pm

@#54 Canada=Poor cousin of U.S on 05.15.18 at 7:09 pm
Now something will try to counter my argument by saying …. but but but … we have free healthcare.
__________________________
hahah, obviously our healthcare isn’t “free” but but but, do you have any idea how much health care insurance costs for the average family down there? it’s shocking really. 35k to give birth in a hospital, more should you need a csection.

#72 The real Kip on 05.15.18 at 8:11 pm

“Keep voting the way you are and we’ll soon be buying yurts”

I’m voting NDP and pray for a minority in Ontario.

#73 NoName on 05.15.18 at 8:17 pm

Is this for real?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/dc-sports-bog/wp/2018/05/11/d-c-council-member-optimistic-about-extended-metro-service-for-caps-games/?noredirect=on&__twitter_impression=true

#74 jim on 05.15.18 at 8:18 pm

#53

“Salaries in U.S are way more higher. When you factor in the exchange rate its almost double. Plus you get to deduct the mortgage, pay lower taxes, buy things much cheaper…”

Across the country, no. It is only higher in regional labor markets, mostly the coastal cities (although Chicago, Dallas, North/South Dakota and a few other places do well).

For professionals, depends greatly on the industry. In my field, I’d be looking at significantly less in Toronto and laughably less in Vancouver.

(We have a big matrix that gives us the cost of living as well as salaries in different offices, and I can see what I would be facing in Waterloo or Toronto. No thanks).

However, that’s to ignore that there are parts of the country where the salaries are quite low.

Yes, there are writeoffs. Trump is capping the SALT deductions at 10k, though. For someone in California, Mass., Illinois (etc) that is a big problem.

I keep getting pinged by Amazon recruiters trying to draw people back to the new office in Vancouver. I had a running argument with one about living costs, and they refused to acknowledge the high cost of living. About the real estate market, they said ‘yes it is high, but it will go up in future’. As bad as realtors.

#75 Chaddywack on 05.15.18 at 8:28 pm

Foreign buyers tax headed to BC court finally.

If it’s found to discriminate against national origin expect the Vancouver market to light up as foreign capital starts flooding in again. Might be a good time to buy in BC.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/article-legal-challenge-to-bcs-foreign-buyers-tax-heads-to-court-in-june/

#76 For those about to flop... on 05.15.18 at 8:31 pm

I’ll never be your beast of burden…

M43BC

“Mapping the Hidden Burden of Local and State Sales Taxes

Tax policy experts usually think about sales tax in one of two ways. On the one hand, it is aregressive tax because it takes a greater percentage of income from poor and middle-class people than the wealthy. But on the other hand, sales tax proponents like to point out it’s a tax on consumption, and the amounts people pay depends on how much stuff they buy. The situation is made even more complicated by the fact that local municipalities and county governments often pass their own sales tax measures. This made us wonder if there was a way to visualize the current sales tax situation across the entire country.

We found our numbers from the Tax Foundation, a public policy organization advocating for a simplified tax code. They gathered statewide sales tax data and combined it with a calculation for the average local sales tax rate, weighting city and county rates by population. We represented each state’s sales tax burden by creating a circle—the larger the circle, the greater the burden. We then split the circle in two to visualize which portion comes from statewide mandates verses local ordinances. This approach creates an apples-to-apples comparison for sales tax levies across the country.

Top 10 States with the Heaviest Total Sales Tax Burden

1. Louisiana: 10.02%

2. Tennessee: 9.46%

3. Arkansas: 9.41%

4. Washington: 9.18%

5. Alabama: 9.1%

6. Oklahoma: 8.91%

7. Illinois: 8.7%

8. Kansas: 8.68%

9. California: 8.54%

10. New York: 8.49%

You might notice that there are a few states missing from our visualization: Oregon, New Hampshire, Montana and Delaware. That’s because none of these places have any sales taxes at either the state or local levels. Alaska deserves special mention because although it does not have a statewide sales tax, there is an average 1.76% local tax rate. And the lowest statewide rate (other than 0%) belongs to Colorado at 2.9%, followed by a number of states at 4% including Hawaii, Wyoming, Georgia, New York and Alabama.

Analyzing the entire sales tax burden complicates our political narrative that conservative places tend to tax people less. Our map contains large circles for states across the South, led most notably by Louisiana with an incredible combined sales tax rate of over 10%. Many of these places have relatively low statewide levels, like Alabama (4%) or Oklahoma (4.5%). Tennessee is exceptional thanks to its statewide rate of 7%, but keep in mind they don’t tax earned income whatsoever.

The opposite is also true for more liberal states like Illinois, California and Washington. These places have comparatively onerous statewide tax burdens, led by California at 7.25%. But on the flip side, cities and counties maintain very low local sales taxes. One exception is New York, where a local ordinance of 4.49% from New York City pushes the Garden State to 8.49% overall.

So where is the best place to live where you can keep most of your money? Should you just move to a state with no sales tax whatsoever? Remember that there are two sides to the taxation question—the government can tax money as you earn it and as you spend it. And looking at simple statewide sales tax rates doesn’t paint a full picture either. It is only by considering the combination of statewide and local tax rates that you can see the true sales tax burden.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/state-local-sales-tax-rates-2018

#77 Terry on 05.15.18 at 8:38 pm

“There’s a reason houses in the States cost a fraction of what they do here, where people make about the same and families are less in debt than they were a decade ago. Keep voting the way you are and we’ll soon be buying yurts.”

Our problem once again could be those voting in Toronto. Too many Liberals there messing everything up for the rest of Ontario and Canada.

#78 georgist on 05.15.18 at 8:39 pm

> I keep getting pinged by Amazon recruiters trying to draw people back to the new office in Vancouver. I had a running argument with one about living costs, and they refused to acknowledge the high cost of living. About the real estate market, they said ‘yes it is high, but it will go up in future’. As bad as realtors.

Amazon have a *terrible* rep in the tech community. They must already have to pay above the going rate, surely?

#79 Henry on 05.15.18 at 8:47 pm

“With 10-year, risk-free bonds now paying more than 3%, why take a gamble to get 4% with a stock that could decline in value? So, equities fade.”
—————————————————–
Garth – night after night you write about the changing real estate market. But we also appreciate your wisdom on financial markets. Maybe you could talk one night (maybe even one week) about how higher interest rates and toppy stock markets have and will change the direction of investing in financial markets. Surely, there has to be some changes to even a balanced, diversified portfolio. So what are they?

Thanks.

#80 Fish on 05.15.18 at 8:58 pm

Garth is that guy in the pic reading Ontario sunshine list?

#81 Arto on 05.15.18 at 8:58 pm

Who cares about Canadian Real Estate when civilians in Gaza are being shot like fish in a barrel

#82 JCH on 05.15.18 at 9:00 pm

To VREU: I think that you are a brilliant thinker. I really appreciate your excellent analysis of the Victoria market and your clear insights on the processes and outcomes of asset bubbles. Thank you for your comments.

To the VREU haters on here:
1. Let it go. There’s no need to be so defensive about your “it’s different here” Victoria/CRD market. It is what it is. We in the bear camp would never have believed that the very obvious housing market bubble could possibly be sustained this long, but of course a sensible central bank would not have supported it so long in spite of the dire economic risks being developed. The rational among us know that the Canadian housing markets will eventually collapse, inflicting massive economic damage, and we hope to save a few people from becoming victims.
2. Stop assuming that VREU is female solely because you disagree with his/her position. Obviously the intent by these commenters is to insult. But VREU’s comments are very intelligent, and would be a credit to anyone, regardless.

#83 the Jaguar on 05.15.18 at 9:00 pm

Garth. #2 SB. Multiple poster. Disrespectful blowhard.
Doesn’t appear to have read the ‘Helpful reminders from your forum host, Garth Turner. ‘
Some of the discourse is getting too personal between posters. Name calling and other tiresome B.S..
If SB doesn’t like the topic introduced each day by it’s generous host he is free to exit. Hope the door hits him on the behind on the way out.

#84 Mark on 05.15.18 at 9:03 pm

“I keep getting pinged by Amazon recruiters trying to draw people back to the new office in Vancouver. I had a running argument with one about living costs, and they refused to acknowledge the high cost of living.”

High cost of living in Vancouver? Actually the cost of living in Vancouver is pretty low ex-RE. Going through the receipts from the time I spent there this time last year revealed that the price of meals, hotel rooms, etc., as well as transportation was exceptionally reasonable. And if you rent, its a lot more affordable than Seattle. With Seattle, the real shocker was the cost of groceries, restaurant meals, transportation, etc. since they actually have an economy that isn’t overwhelmingly weighted towards RE in that city.

As far as Amazon is concerned, they, like most other US big-tech companies, are inundated with qualified applicants so they can ‘afford’ to take a hard line on compensation. A good chunk of compensation at companies like those tends to be stock, and there are heavy internal disincentives towards monetizing such.

#85 april on 05.15.18 at 9:12 pm

#24 – someone correct me if I’m wrong. I think what Garth is saying is the the increase in taxes will raise the cost of housing making it even less affordable, consequently, less people will be able to buy and that should lead to even lower sales and prices?? Isn’t this the intent?

Lower prices on coatly homes are irrelevant if they’re still unaffordable. Meanwhile higher taxes hurt the economy, and erase jobs, while making cheaper houses more dear. Lose, lose. – Garth

#86 akashic record on 05.15.18 at 9:13 pm

The lion’s share of the blame should rest with accommodative monetary policy, set by the independent central bank. – Garth

Wow… Let’s take one more step…

Why did the independent Canadian central bank get tamed suddenly into practicing the uncharacteristic accommodative monetary policy?

Ever hear of the credit crisis? – Garth

#87 keep calm and mow the lawn on 05.15.18 at 9:31 pm

2 years ago
where i live at islington bloor bungalows were selling for 850k

1 yr ago?……..
2 right near me sold for 1.2m
but both didn’t close
last month? 885k
tear downs all

#88 will on 05.15.18 at 9:32 pm

hahahahahahahaha! (the picture) haven’t even read the blog yet!

#89 will on 05.15.18 at 9:36 pm

“we’ll soon be buying yurts.”

I would love to own a yurt.

#90 keep calm and mow the lawn on 05.15.18 at 9:39 pm

#81 Arto on 05.15.18 at 8:58 pm
Who cares about Canadian Real Estate when civilians in Gaza are being shot like fish in a barrel


turn off your television

#91 Game Over on 05.15.18 at 9:47 pm

Not exactly. The lion’s share of the blame should rest with accommodative monetary policy, set by the independent central bank. – Garth

Exactly. Too low for too long. Now Poloz is stuck between a rock and a hard place and he doesn’t have truck nutz big enough to make the big calls. He will be forced by the Fed and bond market into raising rates. Remember, he has to go up another 1.5-2% just to be neutral!

#92 crdt on 05.15.18 at 9:50 pm

Gentlemen, I think it is time to take out the proverbial white glove and move it briskly across the other’s cheek.

#63 tccontrarian on 05.15.18 at 7:35 pm
#108 Tater on 05.15.18 at 7:48 am

#93 OttawaMike on 05.15.18 at 9:52 pm

Looks to me like mission accomplished:

Soft landing for housing.

#94 Mark Baum on 05.15.18 at 9:56 pm

Started a short position on Canadian bank stocks and $MIC (Genworth MI). The dominoes look to have lined up for a precipitous fall

#95 will on 05.15.18 at 10:03 pm

#56 smoking man

hey smoking man, this is a yurt:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/Syr_Darya_Oblast._Kyrgyz_Yurt_WDL10968.png

this also is a yurt:

https://i2.wp.com/roadstories.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Nesslin-Lake-campground-yurt-exterior-1.jpg?ssl=1

#96 Myra Andrews on 05.15.18 at 10:05 pm

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul Boenisch

May 15 New 315 Sold 178 TI 11,127
May 14 New 302 Sold 124 TI 11,052

May 11 New 183 Sold 132 TI 10,935
May 10 New 229 Sold 126 TI 10,957
May 9 New 309 Sold 172 TI 10,914
May 8 New 318 Sold 117 TI 10,835
May 7 New 389 Sold 131 TI 10,697

May 4 New 191 Sold 110 TI 10,540
May 3 New 213 Sold 103 TI 10,503
May 2 New 268 Sold 146 TI 10,481
May 1 New 363 Sold 134 TI 10,420
Apr 30 New 375 Sold 163 TI 10,459

April 16-27 New 2453 Sold 1224 TI 10,347
April 3-13 New 2111 Sold 916 TI 9,727

Mar 19-29 New 1834 Sold 1072 TI 9,032
Mar 5-16 New 2248 Sold 1224 TI 8,743

The inventory at the end of February was 8,211

#97 Leo Trollstoy on 05.15.18 at 10:07 pm

I remember 2013 well. I purchased a house back then and sold it last year. Prices kept climbing through 2013 to 2017. It was a great capital gain

Those who bought earlier made even more.

#jealous

#98 Dog In The Fight on 05.15.18 at 10:13 pm

The NEP did an awesome job of lowering house prices.

#99 For those about to flop... on 05.15.18 at 10:21 pm

Recent Sale Report.

This Westside penthouse just sold.

6-2077 w 3rd ave,Vancouver.

Asking 1.18

Sold for 1.18

Assessment 961K

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2077-west-3rd-avenue/6

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#100 DON on 05.15.18 at 10:40 pm

#41 island analyst.

Things are slowing down – sentiment is turning and sales are slowing even in retirement mecca Qualicum Beach. As Vancouver slows so does the island. The ripple affect. Friends in qualucum had to drop their price and no bites just people offering 50 k less. I am sure they will sell but it is slowing. This bubble took a long time to inflate and will take some time to deflate…plus we are running out of retirees.

The housing plane is running on fumes…month by month it gets worse. Not much positive on the horizon. By the end of summer the heard will start to take notice but until then people will enjoy the summer. Sell now or forever be a slave to your house!

as for the 3000 amazon jobs …yah right…lots of IT companies list jobs until they are filled which perhaps was never the intent. all optics.

B20 Bust….You’re Apart Parts bud. Who teaches these kids deductive reasoning…FFS!

#101 Smoking Man on 05.15.18 at 10:43 pm

#93 OttawaMike on 05.15.18 at 9:52 pm
Looks to me like mission accomplished:

Soft landing for housing…..
…….
Calm before the storm. Nail in the coffin will be the carbon tax. Big inflation followed my rate hikes…
You need to study the progressive ideology. Deliberate distruction to our culture and economy. T2 will do a lot of damage before he’s punted.

#102 Fuzzy Camel on 05.15.18 at 10:52 pm

Whats driving the price of housing so high is the shortage of land coupled with over regulation of land use.

The biggest challenge builders face right now is finding land they can actually build on.

The urban planners have a condo fetish, they think that paradise is 500 sq-ft condos and hipsters riding fixed gear bikes.

Not everyone wants to live in a poverty, some people want, *GASP*, a backyard, whoa, crazy concept. That’s too high of carbon footprint, they might need a lawnmower, *ahhhh planners having a heart attack*.

#103 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 05.15.18 at 10:54 pm

The yurt placement and inspection fees are exactly the same as housing permits. When govts gorged on the ZIRP they also elevated unionized Civic serpent salaries and perks to strataspheric levels. The only way to repay Civic debt while expanding social services is to raise taxes and fees. …..haven’t you noticed? In Texas, for example….services are provided at much lower cost and Civic workers aren’t considered elite royalty.

” Stop hey, what’s that sound, everybody look what’s going down”. Fer gawd sake even the stoned hippies had better awareness.

#104 Dead Cat Bounce on 05.15.18 at 10:57 pm

re: #84 Mark on 05.15.18 at 9:03 pm
High cost of living in Vancouver? Actually the cost of living in Vancouver is pretty low ex-RE.
————————————————————–
I’ve actually lived in Vancouver since 1982, you are extremely wrong thinking the cost of living is “pretty low” to live here.
Highest gas prices in North America ring any bells ?
Everything costs more here, and everything is getting more expense every day, this is the main reason many people are leaving… or left.
M55BC

#105 akashic record on 05.15.18 at 11:13 pm

86 akashic record on 05.15.18 at 9:13 pm

The lion’s share of the blame should rest with accommodative monetary policy, set by the independent central bank. – Garth

Wow… Let’s take one more step…

Why did the independent Canadian central bank get tamed suddenly into practicing the uncharacteristic accommodative monetary policy?

Ever hear of the credit crisis? – Garth

“Credit crisis” is a nice euphemism for the irresponsible, colossal screw-up of the financial industry, that created the condition for the “accommodative monetary policy”.

The accomodative monetary policy and the complete distortion of the market (including real estate) is the true collateral damage of the “financial geniuses” of Wall Street.

#106 Fake News Again on 05.15.18 at 11:15 pm

Too bad them pesky locals and their 86K household incomes in Greater Van are keeping moldy shacks over 1 million dollars.

Dem pesky locals…..

#107 Fake News Again on 05.15.18 at 11:23 pm

57 Gold $5000? on 05.15.18 at 7:21 pm
Who let in the loons ?

Wasn’t gold suppose to already at $5000 just after 2008?

You lose

______

Its all about timing. Just wait a couple more years when confidence in Govt starts to collapse world wide. THEN the Gold/Silver fireworks will begin. But not now….

#108 Rifles on 05.15.18 at 11:59 pm

“There’s a reason houses in the States cost a fraction of what they do here, where people make about the same and families are less in debt than they were a decade ago.”

Yeah, they pay capital gains on the sale of their principal residence and mortgage costs are tax deductible.

You need to learn more. – Garth

#109 Welcome to Slurrey on 05.16.18 at 12:05 am

Bidding wars in victoria , listings going for over asking…. … i know someone who is currently purchasing , and have seen it first hand. House he wanted listed less than a week , asking 935 , 6 offers ( he put 925) , sold at 958 all cash.

#110 Leo S on 05.16.18 at 12:15 am

That CD Howe study is very naive. They assume the difference between new house sale price and construction cost is due to municipal regulation. So according to them when the house price in Victoria jumped by $100,000 it was suddenly due to more “regulation”. In fact the opposite is true, the city fast tracked a bunch of developments in response to the low vacancy rate.

#111 Hamilton buyer on 05.16.18 at 12:20 am

It was not long ago Garth suggested the deals in areas like Hamilton would be short lived.

I purchased a bungalow on the mountain this week for $450K – felt like a deal at the time but today’s news makes me feel like I may have acted too soon.

Care to change your position on Hamilton Garth, or do your previous statements hold true.

#112 Karma on 05.16.18 at 12:30 am

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-osc-flags-concerns-about-growth-of-alternative-mortgage-lending/

#113 Doug t on 05.16.18 at 12:31 am

It truly doesn’t matter who you vote for – six of one half dozen of the other

RATM

#114 For those about to flop... on 05.16.18 at 12:38 am

Pink Pollen falling in North Vancouver.

These guys are having a second kick at the can.

Featured them once before and then they went into hibernation like a lot of cases when they realized it wasn’t going to be all rainbows and butterflies like the real estate boards purport.

Paid 1.61 May 2017

Now asking 1.65

This is what people do when they’re on plant based diets…

M43BC

2803 Trillium Place, North Vancouver paid 1.61 May 2017

Oct 4:$1,759,000
Dec 29: $1,698,000
Change: – 61000.00 -3%

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/2803-trillium-place

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOEpQSg==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#115 Arto on 05.16.18 at 1:13 am

#81 Arto on 05.15.18 at 8:58 pm
Who cares about Canadian Real Estate when civilians in Gaza are being shot like fish in a barrel

___

#90 keep calm and mow the lawn on 05.15.18 at 9:39 pm
turn off your television

––

You mean turn off your humanity

#116 Fortune500 on 05.16.18 at 1:42 am

Maybe I am crazy, but it looks to me like the policies are having their intended effect.

The sky isn’t falling, but those who have been feeding at the trough will try hard to convince the public that moderating prices or, heaven forbid, even declining prices are a universal negative, when in fact it will benefit the largest portion of the population if this trend continues.

#117 Newcomer on 05.16.18 at 2:18 am

Looks like people in fancy places have been reading Greaterfool.

https://www.ft.com/content/5bd9567e-5471-11e8-b3ee-41e0209208ec
Sylvester Stallone, Pitbull and the Canadian Wealth Expo ‘circus’
The get-rich-quick message from a star-studded line-up in a falling property market

#118 Smoking Man on 05.16.18 at 2:41 am

Wynee is toast. As much as I loath the hag. She went into ring. She wasn’t a spectator in the stands. Takes great courage.

I respect her huge for that.

For everything else.. Hey, hey good bye.!!!!

#119 jane24 on 05.16.18 at 3:03 am

So as we assumed the idiots who took their houses off the market last Autumn to wait on their agent’s advice for a mad rush Spring are screwed. If on their agent’s advice they decided to wait for next year to get their Spring 2017 money then Lord help them. Yet again proof that the best price is always the first price.

If they are buying again and most are; it really makes no difference. You sell high and buy high or sell low and buy low. Very few ever get to sell high and buy low. It doesn’t work that way.

Would be very interested in the opinion of any one who works for local govt as to how towns are intending to replace the massive influx of new home developmental money that they have had for years. Although on paper this was always positioned as paying for new infrastructure the reality is that it just went into the general pot for bills. Now it won’t!

#120 NoName on 05.16.18 at 3:22 am

Interesting, I always wondered where keyboard type computer idea was hacked.

https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/look-back-bloomberg-keyboard/

#121 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 05.16.18 at 3:46 am

Q……”Why take a risk at 4% when a note might pay 3%.

A……Growth and Capital Gain..” Because while an index ETF might have a yield of 4% …..many individual equities will produce profits of 2 X’s to 100x’s those results.

Don’t lump all stocks in with index performance. Read the old classic…..”Where are all the customers yachts?’

It is an arena of specialities….where winners win and whiners lose. Individual stocks have the potential to make you rich……passive indexing…..not so much.

#122 Howard on 05.16.18 at 5:23 am

#20 theoryAndPractice on 05.15.18 at 5:51 pm

This just reminds me recent discussion on 9 vs 20. It just depends how you word it, %122 and %222 both correct in the context the way it is explained.

—————————-

No they are not. Oh my god. FFS.

9 to 20 is a 122% increase. It’s arithmetic. There is no “debate” in arithmetic. It just IS. You might as well say that 2+2=4…but also 5, depending on context.

If a value rises 2-fold, it is a 100% increase.
If it rises 3-fold, it’s 200%.
If it rises 4-fold, it’s 300%.
And so on.

I was somewhat below-average in math in high school, so how is it that I easily understand these principles but many here do not?

#123 Gravy Train on 05.16.18 at 7:18 am

#115 Arto on 05.16.18 at 1:13 am
“You mean turn off your humanity.”

You fail to understand that Trump has no humanity, no moral centre or compass, and no values; he’s purely transactional, a philistine. He divides up the world into winners and losers; none of the 60+ killed were white, so he’s fine with everything.

It doesn’t appear that the American electorate is much different from the Donald. The current polls show 47% support for Democrats and 44% for Republicans in the midterm elections.

Sidenote: The last three years have been quite an education for me. I thought only five to ten percent of the American electorate could support a whackjob for POTUS, but it looks to be closer to half of them! :(

#124 keep calm and mow the lawn on 05.16.18 at 7:20 am

DELETED

#125 Tater on 05.16.18 at 7:35 am

#92 crdt on 05.15.18 at 9:50 pm
Gentlemen, I think it is time to take out the proverbial white glove and move it briskly across the other’s cheek.

#63 tccontrarian on 05.15.18 at 7:35 pm
#108 Tater on 05.15.18 at 7:48 am

————————————————————–
I just find it funny that someone who thinks of themselves as a contrarian is happy to parrot other’s thoughts.

He’s also demonstrated a lack of knowledge about markets and investing that is pretty amazing.

#126 Scott on 05.16.18 at 7:52 am

Any thoughts as to why the Teranet HPI is showing a 5.62% y/y increase in home prices while the CREA numbers seem to suggest double that in the other direction? I don’t particularly trust any RE numbers I see these days, but I wouldn’t have expected CREA to be on the more negative side of things!

Teranet is useless. – Garth

#127 Conn Smythe on 05.16.18 at 7:58 am

#156 IHCTD9 on 05.15.18 at 1:54 pm

“Whoever gets to run this province next will have to either tax the crap out of us, or scoop deeply into the gravy bowl.

What do you think it’ll be…?”

Well put and very true…

#128 Whimp on 05.16.18 at 8:05 am

The economic climate and people’s attitudes right now remind me of 2007/08 the euphoric feeling that everything’s fine prices will just keep going up, stock will keep soaring, life’s good, business as usual. Until the markets take a huge flop. It’s coming, maybe they’ll push it ahead until next year, maybe not, but nobody is prepared and with oil possibly climbing to $100 and gas going even higher, the only things we’ll see soar are personal debt, cost of living/food, gas prices and people’s blood pressure. This will be ugly when it comes crashing down, and I’m not just talking about real estate.

#129 Renter's Revenge! on 05.16.18 at 8:07 am

Weighing in on the most inane topic of discussion of the day seems like the best way to build rapport around here, so here’s my 2 (per)cents:

– Going from 9 to 20 is a 122% increase.
– 20 is 222% of 9.

Math is easy! God, you guys are so stupid! (pro tip: insults establish dominance, and dominance equals correctness)

#130 dharma bum on 05.16.18 at 8:14 am

Keep voting the way you are and we’ll soon be buying yurts. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Some ‘o dem yurts is not too shabby, ‘eh?

https://media.treehugger.com/assets/images/2011/10/yurt-interior.jpg

#131 Tater on 05.16.18 at 8:49 am

#126 Scott on 05.16.18 at 7:52 am
Any thoughts as to why the Teranet HPI is showing a 5.62% y/y increase in home prices while the CREA numbers seem to suggest double that in the other direction? I don’t particularly trust any RE numbers I see these days, but I wouldn’t have expected CREA to be on the more negative side of things!

Teranet is useless. – Garth

—————————————————————
Terranet lags badly as it takes the average of the previous 3 months of CLOSED deals. Since the typical closing period is 60 days, that means the group used for any month is for deals actually struck from 2 to 5 months ago.

#132 The Real Mark's Psychiatrist on 05.16.18 at 8:52 am

Sorry blog dogs for the real Mark’s babble about 2013 being the peak year for Canadian real estate. We are going to increase his meds and hope that will end the nonsense…

# 9 Stan Brooks

“Premier mental institutions demand premier prices.”

Well put Stanley!

#133 The Late and Great Jim Lahey, Sunnyvale Trailer Park Supervisor on 05.16.18 at 9:01 am

#19 Crowdedelevatorfartz

“OR they are hoping beyond hope there is a greaterfool out there dumb enough to buy into this collapsing sh!tstorm you call a market.”

You got it right Randy. There’s a sh!tstorm a brewing and when the sh!thawks start dropping run for cover…

#134 jess on 05.16.18 at 9:04 am

no vacancies …not according to these business owners!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/expedia-challenged-by-a-small-b-c-inn-1.4664864

#135 akashic record on 05.16.18 at 9:18 am

What you don’t realize is that blanket statements like yours are the result of identity politics, that was unleashed in the last years as a tool for winning votes, by the politicians, who claim exclusive monopoly on “humanity”, “moral compass”, “values”, etc.

It turns out that their supposedly higher “humanity”, better “moral compass”, etc. is by enlarge nothing more than more sophisticated use of language to articulate that monopoly.

The realization of this is what shows up in the polls.

#136 Headhunter on 05.16.18 at 9:19 am

#123 gravytrain

Sidenote: The last three years have been quite an education for me. I thought only five to ten percent of the American electorate could support a whackjob for POTUS, but it looks to be closer to half of them! :(

___________________________________________

“oh boy” basically you just called/implied the silent majority on the USA who voted for Trump are “whackjobs” This IS our biggest trading partner.

Further proof that democracy ergo mob rule doesnt work.. too many pissed off people who didn’t get their way… sulk hinder and name call.

We are in a need of a new system, a new one for us.. that has been tried and proven in the past. Info. is out there I suggest google and start reading history.
# peaceout

#137 Conn Smythe on 05.16.18 at 9:21 am

#111 Hamilton Buyer

“purchased a bungalow on the mountain this week for $450K – felt like a deal at the time but today’s news makes me feel like I may have acted too soon.”

A home is a long term investment. You did not act too soon and even if your timing is slightly off, as a long term investment you are perfectly fine. 450k for a location that is a Go Train ride away from downtown Toronto is a good deal.

#138 HaHaHa on 05.16.18 at 9:23 am

Ok so Prime Minister Fancy Sox announces a huge taxpayer funded transit extension for Calgary. Well another waste of money. I was led to believe that the future of tech was self driving cars and fleets of these things were going to be whisking us around. I mean Canada is the tech hub of the world you know.

#139 Conn Smythe on 05.16.18 at 9:24 am

#123 Gravy Train

“Sidenote: The last three years have been quite an education for me. I thought only five to ten percent of the American electorate could support a whackjob for POTUS, but it looks to be closer to half of them! :(”

Truer words were never spoken…

#140 young & foolish on 05.16.18 at 9:32 am

So, the cost of money is going up … and with debt loads (government and especially corporate) at record levels many people are beginning to think we are heading for another credit crunch, resulting in asset write downs and sell-offs, with a nasty recession to follow.

2017 was a good time to sell RE, perhaps 2018 is a good time to re-balance for security?

#141 desparately seeking serenity on 05.16.18 at 9:35 am

I disagree with your sentiment that Teranet is useless. However it lags. and does not give up to the moment info because it uses more than 1 month’s info to be constructed. In fact it is intellectually superior to CREA’s (add up all the sales and divide by the number of houses). Teranet uses sales of the same house in the past compared to the sale of the house now. That is a better measure.

And utterly useless as a barometer of market momentum. – Garth

#142 Ian on 05.16.18 at 9:39 am

For those who think the US is doing just fine…remember when I mentioned the 1.3t of auto loan debt and 1.2t of student loan debt?

Welllll…subprime is starting to collapse in the auto loan sector.

‘the losses will be manageable’, the article says. I recall hearing that about the housing marking in 2006 too. Or I guess 2002 in Mark real estate years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-06/smaller-u-s-subprime-auto-lenders-are-folding-as-losses-pile-up

#143 James on 05.16.18 at 10:32 am

#130 dharma bum on 05.16.18 at 8:14 am

Keep voting the way you are and we’ll soon be buying yurts. – Garth
——————————————————————–

Some ‘o dem yurts is not too shabby, ‘eh?

https://media.treehugger.com/assets/images/2011/10/yurt-interior.jpg
________________________________________
Yurts are cool stayed in one at Algonquin Park last year.

#144 James on 05.16.18 at 10:33 am

#101 Smoking Man on 05.15.18 at 10:43 pm

#93 OttawaMike on 05.15.18 at 9:52 pm
Looks to me like mission accomplished:

Soft landing for housing…..
…….
Calm before the storm. Nail in the coffin will be the carbon tax. Big inflation followed my rate hikes…
You need to study the progressive ideology. Deliberate distruction to our culture and economy. T2 will do a lot of damage before he’s punted.
______________________________________
Likewise with Donal Trump when he is punted! Are you not glad you live in the land of the free and the home of the brave. Francis Scott Key though so. Please don’t stay here too long yes we know how your voting. Coming back to Toronto for a week, sure just long enough to keep your health care! BTW Didn’t Donald J Trump promise you the best lowest cost healthcare in the world? So why do you need our poor decrepit health care system to cover you? Your such a fraud.

#145 Blacksheep on 05.16.18 at 10:43 am

RE: Blacksheep # 61,

Here is the BoE PDF Link, without the chrome extension that actually works:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf

#146 Smoking Man on 05.16.18 at 10:45 am

123 Gravy Train on 05.16.18 at 7:18 am
#115 Arto on 05.16.18 at 1:13 am
“You mean turn off your humanity.”

You fail to understand that Trump has no humanity, no moral centre or compass, and no values; he’s purely transactional, a philistine. He divides up the world into winners and losers; none of the 60+ killed were white, so he’s fine with everything.

It doesn’t appear that the American electorate is much different from the Donald. The current polls show 47% support for Democrats and 44% for Republicans in the midterm elections.

Sidenote: The last three years have been quite an education for me. I thought only five to ten percent of the American electorate could support a whackjob for POTUS, but it looks to be closer to half of them! :(
…….

You watch too much MSM. I nail it. Called the win when he came down the escalator…

It’s in the archives ….

Having a Phd in Herdonomics is not a thing you can get by going to school and memorizing a textbook.

#147 Natrx on 05.16.18 at 10:50 am

Houses near ‘hawt’ US cities still doing well.

#148 Disgruntled on 05.16.18 at 11:00 am

#119 “If they are buying again and most are; it really makes no difference. You sell high and buy high or sell low and buy low. Very few ever get to sell high and buy low. It doesn’t work that way.”

Actually the more stratospheric the market is the harder it is for people to move up because the gap between a dump they might be living in and a better house ever widens.

#149 Smoking Man on 05.16.18 at 11:00 am

All you joggers and health food eaters take note.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/oldest-living-person-ever-128-12543657

#150 T on 05.16.18 at 11:14 am

#60 Mark on 05.15.18 at 7:26 pm

Or ‘The real Mark’, you know, the delusional one.

That’s a pretty bold thing to do, to make a psychiatric diagnosis of someone for whom you have not met. Either a very boorish tactic in debate, or very unprofessional conduct. Which is it?

——————

You are a piece of work. You outright tell others they need psychiatric help, and as soon as someone else says the same to you, you feel the need to lash out in this prick manner.

You really do need to stop. You are an extreme annoyance and add no value with all your comments. 95% of your comments are complete rubbish without any base in reality.

You, Mark, real Mark, Chris, whom ever you are, are a total and complete loser. Every post you make just reaffirms this in the eyes of all here. You think you are intelligent, which proves your delusion. You obviously have a lot of free time which speaks to your work ethics and social circle (or lack thereof in both cases).

#151 Tony on 05.16.18 at 11:24 am

Re: #34 Debtslavecreator on 05.15.18 at 6:16 pm

Don’t make the mistake of shorting the subprime banks in Canada. Right now all of them are an outright buy. People will resort to using subprime banks before losing “their” homes upon mortgage renewal time.

#152 Tony on 05.16.18 at 11:29 am

Re: #142 Ian on 05.16.18 at 9:39 am

Maybe according to Mark or The Real Mark the 13 in 2013 was just bad luck for anyone not selling their home at the peak.

#153 Gravy Train on 05.16.18 at 11:40 am

#136 Headhunter on 05.16.18 at 9:19 am
“… Further proof that democracy ergo mob rule doesn’t work…. We are in a need of a new system, a new one for us—that has been tried and proven in the past.”

Do I understand you correctly? Are you saying that democracy is not the best form of government? And that you’d like to do away with it? And replace it with what? An authoritarian form of government? Fascism, perhaps? Is that what you have in mind, jackass—or should I have said jackboot? :(

#154 IHCTD9 on 05.16.18 at 12:00 pm

I’ve been laying down the law the last few years around the IHCTD9 compound saying we’re not going to vacation or day trip anywhere near the GTA. Our last couple experiences involved insane drivers, insane people on drugs, insane traffic, insane expenses, for ok attractions. I was happy to get back to work afterwards.

Most of Ontario has been overrun this year for some reason. Everything is booked, campsites are near impossible to get – even on opening day. Then the mother of all canaries fell over a few years ago: the GTA traffic slowed 401 traffic to 40-50 km/h all evening on Labour Day weekend – just minutes from IHCTD9 headquarters. Just to be clear, IHCTD9 headquarters is a good 200 km away from Toronto.

We’re now considering vacations and road trips Stateside. I don’t know what took me so long as just about everyone I know and every single last person in my extended family has been vacationing in the US for years already. Wife will be getting her passport updated, kids will be getting their first in preparation.

It won’t be long before we’ll have to pay to use the 400 series highways, and it’ll be 50.00 to park anywhere. Planning to spend my time and money elsewhere just seems like the right thing to do.

#155 OHIP on 05.16.18 at 12:00 pm

Out of country coverage amounts to the cost of a fine dinner per day.

#156 Leo Trollstoy on 05.16.18 at 12:03 pm

You are a piece of work. You outright tell others they need psychiatric help, and as soon as someone else says the same to you, you feel the need to lash out in this prick manner.

chris is a hypocrite too? say it ain’t so!

#157 Art Vandelay on 05.16.18 at 12:10 pm

Took a look at the cheapest listing in Guelph the other day.
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19400569/150-ALICE-Street-Guelph-Ontario-N1E3A1

524sq. ft. Slanted floors, mold infested basement. I thought it had potential with minimal investment but she’s a teardown. Funny thing is they are holding back offers and I found out they had multiple on the table already. The fools can have it.

Anyways back to baking my cake for Wynne’s going away party

#158 Fake News Again on 05.16.18 at 12:22 pm

Gravy Train on 05.16.18 at 7:18 am
#115 Arto on 05.16.18 at 1:13 am
“You mean turn off your humanity.”

You fail to understand that Trump has no humanity, no moral centre or compass, and no values; he’s purely transactional, a philistine. He divides up the world into winners and losers; none of the 60+ killed were white, so he’s fine with everything.

It doesn’t appear that the American electorate is much different from the Donald. The current polls show 47% support for Democrats and 44% for Republicans in the midterm elections.

Sidenote: The last three years have been quite an education for me. I thought only five to ten percent of the American electorate could support a whackjob for POTUS, but it looks to be closer to half of them! :(

______

The never Trumpers. NEVER have I seen such a narrow minded group of people. How are your friends the Clintons doing these days? You know who the Clintons are right? The founders of The Clinton Crime Family that the Never Trumpers are too chicken to acknowledge……

#159 Fake News Again on 05.16.18 at 12:27 pm

James on 05.16.18 at 10:33 am
#101 Smoking Man on 05.15.18 at 10:43 pm

#93 OttawaMike on 05.15.18 at 9:52 pm
Looks to me like mission accomplished:

Soft landing for housing…..
…….
Calm before the storm. Nail in the coffin will be the carbon tax. Big inflation followed my rate hikes…
You need to study the progressive ideology. Deliberate distruction to our culture and economy. T2 will do a lot of damage before he’s punted.
______________________________________
Likewise with Donal Trump when he is punted! Are you not glad you live in the land of the free and the home of the brave. Francis Scott Key though so. Please don’t stay here too long yes we know how your voting. Coming back to Toronto for a week, sure just long enough to keep your health care! BTW Didn’t Donald J Trump promise you the best lowest cost healthcare in the world? So why do you need our poor decrepit health care system to cover you? Your such a fraud.

________

Yes……Donald Trump is most definitely going to be PUNTED in the next election. I mean……who in their right mind would want a president who:

1. Brings North and South Korea back together after 70 years.

2. Creates the lowest un-employment in ALL classes since stats started being recorded.

3. STOPPED illegal immigration that costs the taxpayers over 100 BILLION dollars a year….

4. LOWERS taxes (unlike CanaDUHHHH where taxes keep rises like floodwaters).

What an idiot that orange haired monkey is. No one will vote for a president like that !!

#160 IHCTD9 on 05.16.18 at 12:37 pm

#119 jane24 on 05.16.18 at 3:03 am

If they are buying again and most are; it really makes no difference. You sell high and buy high or sell low and buy low. Very few ever get to sell high and buy low. It doesn’t work that way.
____________________

You are generally speaking correct. But there are other considerations.

As markets fall, cheap houses are the last to depreciate as excited new buyers support the demand and price on the low end. At the same time, the high end houses are depreciating at a disproportionately high rate. Move up buyers with some cash will be able to get great bang for the buck if they move up in this environment.

I have had this opportunity since last year. My place is just a regular house, but I could sell, add 300K and move into a ridiculous, pompous, lose all my friends type of house. The place I mention could have barely been built for the cost I could get it for. I never did it because 7K+ property taxes for no services. The mortgage would have been ~1400.00/month, and the differences in properties massive. My 4 acre ex-farm nothing special compared to timber frame, pool, hot tub(s), wine cellar, cathedral ceilings, fake palm trees, stone BBQ, glass railed 2 level deck, 15 acres, big pond, 16′ tall windows, on and on and on. No more friends for me.

The other time honoured strategy is to sell out of the GTA and buy somewhere else. This is what “old stock” Canadians do by the thousands upon retirement. There are entire communities of boomers and silent gen’s out my way that all came from the GTA and are sitting quite nicely having sold out for ~7 figures and bought a brand new house in a sub division for 350K.

#161 Lee on 05.16.18 at 12:39 pm

It’s YANNY man!

#162 James on 05.16.18 at 1:04 pm

#146 Smoking Man on 05.16.18 at 10:45 am

123 Gravy Train on 05.16.18 at 7:18 am
#115 Arto on 05.16.18 at 1:13 am
“You mean turn off your humanity.”

You fail to understand that Trump has no humanity, no moral centre or compass, and no values; he’s purely transactional, a philistine. He divides up the world into winners and losers; none of the 60+ killed were white, so he’s fine with everything.

It doesn’t appear that the American electorate is much different from the Donald. The current polls show 47% support for Democrats and 44% for Republicans in the midterm elections.

Sidenote: The last three years have been quite an education for me. I thought only five to ten percent of the American electorate could support a whackjob for POTUS, but it looks to be closer to half of them! :(
…….
You watch too much MSM. I nail it. Called the win when he came down the escalator…
It’s in the archives ….
Having a Phd in Herdonomics is not a thing you can get by going to school and memorizing a textbook.
________________________________________
Could have gone either way Dumbo, its 50/50 he either won or lost. It’s not like calling a horse race or the football score.

#163 Keith in Calgary on 05.16.18 at 1:32 pm

DELETED

#164 Smoking Man on 05.16.18 at 1:45 pm

162 James on 05.16.18 at 1:04 pm
#146 Smoking Man on 05.16.18 at 10:45 am

123 Gravy Train on 05.16.18 at 7:18 am
#115 Arto on 05.16.18 at 1:13 am
“You mean turn off your humanity.”

You fail to understand that Trump has no humanity, no moral centre or compass, and no values; he’s purely transactional, a philistine. He divides up the world into winners and losers; none of the 60+ killed were white, so he’s fine with everything.

It doesn’t appear that the American electorate is much different from the Donald. The current polls show 47% support for Democrats and 44% for Republicans in the midterm elections.

Sidenote: The last three years have been quite an education for me. I thought only five to ten percent of the American electorate could support a whackjob for POTUS, but it looks to be closer to half of them! :(
…….
You watch too much MSM. I nail it. Called the win when he came down the escalator…
It’s in the archives ….
Having a Phd in Herdonomics is not a thing you can get by going to school and memorizing a textbook.
________________________________________
Could have gone either way Dumbo, its 50/50 he either won or lost. It’s not like calling a horse race or the football score……
………

Dumbo?

Talk to me when you are the author of a successful fiction novel, or when you learn to wheel 400 to 1 margin…

You suffer from SMDS
Smoking Man Derangement Syndrome.
Back to your job tax farm slave..

#165 Conn Smythe on 05.16.18 at 1:54 pm

154 IHCTD9 on 05.16.18 at 12:00 pm

Have you been to the Bruce Penninsula and taken Hwy 6 to Torbermory and then the Chi-Cheemaun ferry to Manitoulin Island? You can drive your vehicle on to the Chi-Cheemaun and then tour the incredible gem that is Manitoulin Island. You can even exit on the north side with your vehicle if you don’t want to return to Tobermory. By the way, Georgian Bay and Lake Huron have dozens of sunken ships and is one of the top scuba diving spots in the world. Not to mention gorgeous Sauble Beach and its amazing sunsets…

http://www.ontarioferries.com/en/ms-chi-cheemaun-en/

#166 NoName on 05.16.18 at 2:02 pm

I guess humans are best at creating garbage and pollution, but tree huggers are best at protesting oil sands, i hope they dont take their compensation in bitcoins. year old but interesting read.

This paper has outlined various methods that are currently used in determining the current and future electricity consumption of the Bitcoin network. These methods tell us that the Bitcoin network consumes at least 2.55 GW of electricity currently, and that it could reach a consumption of 7.67 GW in the future, making it comparable with countries such as Ireland (3.1 GW) and Austria (8.2 GW).15 Additionally, economic models tell us that Bitcoin’s electricity consumption will gravitate toward the latter figure. A look at Bitcoin miner production estimates suggests that this figure could already be reached in 2018. With the Bitcoin network processing just 200,000 transactions per day, this means that the average electricity consumed per transaction equals at least 300 kWh, and could exceed 900 kWh per transaction by the end of 2018. The Bitcoin development community is experimenting with solutions such as the Lightning Network to improve the throughput of the network, which may alleviate the situation. For now, however, Bitcoin has a big problem, and it is growing fast.

https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(18)30177-6

#167 Newcomer on 05.16.18 at 2:17 pm

#93 OttawaMike on 05.15.18 at 9:52 pm
Looks to me like mission accomplished:

Soft landing for housing.
———

Nice. If you added a little filler, you could use that as a stand-up routine.

#168 NorthOf49 on 05.16.18 at 2:18 pm

#111 Hamilton buyer on 05.16.18 at 12:20 am

Depends what and where on the Mountain you bought. Posted prices are still high in most parts of Hamilton. They have yet to revert to the mean especially since there’s no recent news of large job openings. Maybe you got a deal or they accepted a low offer? Average Hamilton Mountain price fell from $512K to $475K in April YOY, a 7% drop most likely due to B20 restrictions in that segment of the market. East Mountain / Central Mountain prices I expect to drop further. If you bought West Mountain away from Mohawk College, you might have scored a deal.

#169 Left Coaster on 05.16.18 at 2:27 pm

BUILD MORE HOUSES
BUILD MORE HOUSES
BUILD MORE HOUSES

#170 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 05.16.18 at 2:35 pm

” You outright tell others they need psychiatric help, “

When have I done so? I’m pretty sure I haven’t. There’s a difference between calling certain RE sell-siders who push this “price gain” nonsense in the post-2013 era without discussing the drastically changed sales mix self-serving. And making a purported diagnosis of mental illness just because you disagree with someone in debate.

The rest of your comments, completely out of line, disconnected from reality, and couldn’t be further from the truth.

#171 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 05.16.18 at 2:44 pm

Okay fair enough, I guess I told Troll to get help at one point. He should know why, especially with the sort of nonsense babble he brings to a large number of his comments which appear to be almost entirely directed towards me. Or to whomever he thinks he’s talking to or about, which he, as usual, gets completely wrong.

I suspect if Garth looked at the source of the Mark imposter comments, they’d probably trace back to Troll as well. Pretty sad, that someone would spend their days attempting to obstruct the dissemination of valuable information and analysis. But then again, we know that lots of Realtors, mortgage brokers, etc. have a lot of time on their hands given the collapsing activity in their industry.

#172 Ian on 05.16.18 at 3:07 pm

#165 Conn Smythe

That’s Peopletoulin Island now. Trudeau sent out a memo.

The fine folks in Peopletoba have a big hockey game tonight.

#173 Ian on 05.16.18 at 3:18 pm

All kidding aside, Algoma rules. Love that area.

#174 Keith in rio on 05.16.18 at 3:53 pm

Can’t handle the truh eh Garthie poo ?

You are an islamic terrorist sympathizer and supporter.

You post was ignorant and unworthy of publication, thus deleted. You are finished here. – Garth

#175 James on 05.16.18 at 4:07 pm

#164 Smoking Man on 05.16.18 at 1:45 pm
162 James on 05.16.18 at 1:04 pm
#146 Smoking Man on 05.16.18 at 10:45 am
123 Gravy Train on 05.16.18 at 7:18 am
#115 Arto on 05.16.18 at 1:13 am
“You mean turn off your humanity.”

You fail to understand that Trump has no humanity, no moral centre or compass, and no values; he’s purely transactional, a philistine. He divides up the world into winners and losers; none of the 60+ killed were white, so he’s fine with everything.
It doesn’t appear that the American electorate is much different from the Donald. The current polls show 47% support for Democrats and 44% for Republicans in the midterm elections.
Sidenote: The last three years have been quite an education for me. I thought only five to ten percent of the American electorate could support a whackjob for POTUS, but it looks to be closer to half of them! :(
………………………………………
You watch too much MSM. I nail it. Called the win when he came down the escalator…
It’s in the archives ….
Having a Phd in Herdonomics is not a thing you can get by going to school and memorizing a textbook.
________________________________________
Could have gone either way Dumbo, its 50/50 he either won or lost. It’s not like calling a horse race or the football score……
………………………………………….
Dumbo?
Talk to me when you are the author of a successful fiction novel, or when you learn to wheel 400 to 1 margin…
You suffer from SMDS
Smoking Man Derangement Syndrome.
Back to your job tax farm slave..
____________________________________
Ha now that’s a joke, successful fiction novel? Saw your piece of trash, not fit for a bird cage liner. Call us when your on the The New York Times Fiction Best Sellers of 2018.
Hey Dumbo didn’t you loose the house in Toronto as you couldn’t get an extension of your HELOC, loose your job at RBC capitol for being a dick and badmouthing Dave M, loose your old Ford pickup, have to sell your power boat, almost die from drinking too much and end up in the hospital, several times I might add. So why did you take a tax farm slave job in Cali? 400 to 1 says your a total alcoholic has-been.

#176 IHCTD9 on 05.16.18 at 4:07 pm

#165 Conn Smythe on 05.16.18 at 1:54 pm
154 IHCTD9 on 05.16.18 at 12:00 pm

Have you been to the Bruce Penninsula and taken Hwy 6 to Torbermory and then the Chi-Cheemaun ferry to Manitoulin Island? You can drive your vehicle on to the Chi-Cheemaun and then tour the incredible gem that is Manitoulin Island. You can even exit on the north side with your vehicle if you don’t want to return to Tobermory. By the way, Georgian Bay and Lake Huron have dozens of sunken ships and is one of the top scuba diving spots in the world. Not to mention gorgeous Sauble Beach and its amazing sunsets…

http://www.ontarioferries.com/en/ms-chi-cheemaun-en/
_____

Been to The Pines, Killbear, Killarney – so round about that way. Love Georgian Bay, clear and rocky. We’ve done the same thing you’re talking about with the ferry and all except with Wolfe Island – it was a nice little trip that was easy on the brain.

I’ll definitely be looking into that suggestion – I’ve never set foot on Manitoulin Island.

#177 James on 05.16.18 at 4:13 pm

Who is more honorable Donald J Trump or Robert Muller.
What was Trump doing in 1969 while Robert Muller was in Vietnam in the middle of a war.

https://www.wired.com/story/robert-mueller-vietnam/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/02/how-donald-trump-avoided-the-draft-during-the-vietnam-war/

#178 PastThePeak on 05.16.18 at 4:15 pm

#151 Tony on 05.16.18 at 11:24 am
Re: #34 Debtslavecreator on 05.15.18 at 6:16 pm

Don’t make the mistake of shorting the subprime banks in Canada. Right now all of them are an outright buy. People will resort to using subprime banks before losing “their” homes upon mortgage renewal time.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

It would take a courageous soul to short Canada’s big 5(6) banks. While their shares may get a haircut with some future RE declines in the next recession, they will be among the most resilient businesses (unless there is some undetected global financial catastrophe that erupts then as well).

As noted here multiple times, the banks will make out quite well with B20, as a portion of existing mortgage holders may have to “take what’s offered” vs. shop around, if they can’t qualify. So banks do well in that environment. Sure, recession and some RE decline hurt a bit, but banks have a lot of experience at making money.

Now, I don’t know what you mean by subprime banks. Do you mean the smaller financial institutions / credit unions that seem to be taking on the more risky lending @ higher rates? They might be more vulnerable.

One question to the Garth / the blog. There are multiple stories about how some buyers are going into the mortgage “dark web” to get financing (at higher rates) as they can’t get enough from the banks/unions. While the banks typically are not interested to “foreclose” unless necessary, what about these shadow lenders? Is an increase in loans from this area more destabilizing in event of RE declines – that owners might discover less willingness than [email protected] to work out new payment terms? Just a thought.

#179 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 05.16.18 at 4:40 pm

“the water in Grand Forks” dang it Garth you steal it every time! Keeps me coming back

Australia, but still:
From ABC News in Australia.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-14/court-document-shed-new-light-on-alleged-money-laundering-case/9738920

“Many Australians struggle to save a deposit for a home, let alone pay for a property in full. So how did then 22-year-old Ngouth Oth Mai manage to buy a $1.5 million property in Melbourne upfront in 2014 when he had only ever earned welfare payments and lived in housing commission? That is the question he must now answer in the County Court of Victoria, where the AFP launched civil action under the Proceeds of Crime Act (but not criminal charges).”

“According to the document, an initial deposit of $155,171 was wired from a bank account belonging to Hoid Establishments, a development company in Uganda, directly into the trust account registered to the Melbourne-based real estate agent that handled the sale in June 2014. John Chevis, who spent 12 years working on fraud and corruption cases for the AFP and is now an adviser on money laundering for the United Nations, said the transaction should have been the first red flag.”

“‘The real estate agents involved in the sale of the house in Australia should have conducted their own due diligence on the source of the funds, although Australia’s anti-money laundering laws do not currently require it,’ he said. ‘They should possibly have noticed that the funds travelled a circuitous route for which there is no apparent commercial reason. Having identified these transactions as unusual, the banks should then have sought further information on the source of the funds and then, assuming they identified the source as illegitimate, rejected the transactions.’”

#180 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 05.16.18 at 4:42 pm

From Stuff.com on New Zealand.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/latest/103962397/minister-of-housing-blames-national-for-empty-ghost-houses

“Ghost houses can be blamed on the previous government’s policies that have allowed rampant capital gain. That’s the message from Housing and Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford in response to the Stuff story on the proliferation of empty houses and land banking by speculators. The Minister acknowledged that while there is no clear data, it does seem there are a lot of houses deliberately left empty in some areas by their owners.”

“‘The rampant levels of capital gain over the past nine years have encouraged some speculators to just park their money in these properties, not bothered with renting them to tenants,’ he said. ‘This was highlighted by Gareth Morgan who said he didn’t want to rent out his properties because the tenants would ‘make the carpets dirty’. These ghosts houses are a symptom of the national housing crisis created by the former government.’”

“Questioned about whether the Government would reconsider its decision not to follow Vancouver’s example and introduce an empty house tax, the Minister said: ‘Some overseas jurisdictions have tried to regulate to stop this practice but there is no evidence this has been successful.’ The Government instead will be replying on its new policies. ‘Our Government has a bold, ambitious and comprehensive plan to tackle the housing crisis by banning foreign buyers, cracking down on speculators and increasing housing supply. We are very unlikely to see the levels of capital gain that have encouraged ghost houses continue.’”

#181 tccontrarian on 05.16.18 at 4:44 pm

#125 Tater on 05.16.18 at 7:35 am

#92 crdt on 05.15.18 at 9:50 pm
Gentlemen, I think it is time to take out the proverbial white glove and move it briskly across the other’s cheek.

#63 tccontrarian on 05.15.18 at 7:35 pm
#108 Tater on 05.15.18 at 7:48 am

————————————————————–
I just find it funny that someone who thinks of themselves as a contrarian is happy to parrot other’s thoughts.

He’s also demonstrated a lack of knowledge about markets and investing that is pretty amazing.
—————————————————–
Yes, I tend to try and learn from the best – and if you want to compare portfolio performance, I have a feeling we’ll never hear from you again!
By the end of 2019, you will have lost 30-50% of your net worth – precicely because you haven’t the ability to be a … yes, a ‘contrarian’.
Rick Rule says it best: “you’re either a contrarian, or a victim”!
Around then, the ‘white glove’ will be a rubber one, as a nurse attempts to remove your head from your…arse! LOL

TCC

#182 Newcomer on 05.16.18 at 4:44 pm

#169 Left Coaster on 05.16.18 at 2:27 pm
BUILD MORE HOUSES
———

We’ve tried that. It doesn’t help. The number of homes built has been higher than the population growth in BC/Metro/Van for more than ten years now. The province is filled with unused housing but that has not helped prices. Developers love people to think that the solution is more development but it isn’t. The solution is having the people borrowing the money and the people lending the money assume the risk for the loans. Easy peasy.

#183 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 05.16.18 at 4:55 pm

Could we effect change like a drop in a pond if every gf reader took ownership of a central e-petition regarding transparency of housing (prior sale prices, price drops etc) to be presented to each locale’s MLA?

I hear Zillow is getting into the specking, buying properties to rent. Credibility for the site will lessen in my opinion, if that does happen.

https://techcrunch.com/2018/04/14/zillow-surprises-investors-by-buying-up-homes/

Garth sometime over the past year you reported that there was a legislative win for data to be available to the public.. anyone have an update on this?

BTW sweet new digs Garth, love the fact you’ve got an old bank, fits you like a glove.

#184 Headhunter on 05.16.18 at 5:14 pm

#153 Gravy Train on 05.16.18 at 11:40 am
Do I understand you correctly? Are you saying that democracy is not the best form of government?
_________________________________________
I know gravy it was hard for me too once to understand..
democracy hasnt worked since roman times “bread and circuses” People just vote for the person that promises them the most free stuff insert Liberal platform here

which leads to…. drum roll please

facsism we are already there my friend you just cant see it… yet! banks “too big to fail” 2 telcos gov’t mandated insurance, big oil, agriculture, automobiles.
booze now weed..

#185 Gravy Train on 05.16.18 at 5:35 pm

#158 Fake News Again on 05.16.18 at 12:22 pm
“How are your friends the Clintons doing these days?”

What do the Clintons have to do with anything? You do know that Hillary’s been out of the picture now since Nov. 8, 2016, right? Try to keep up! :)

#186 jess on 05.16.18 at 5:52 pm

Nunes’ trying to reframe should just refrain from speaking!

..”The Senate Intelligence Committee has determined that the U.S. intelligence community was correct in assessing that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election with the aim of helping then-candidate Donald Trump, contradicting findings House Republicans reached last month.

“We see no reason to dispute the [intelligence community’s] conclusions,” the committee’s chairman, Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), said Wednesday in a joint statement with its vice chair, Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-Va.), who added: “Our staff concluded that the … conclusions were accurate and on point. The Russian effort was extensive, sophisticated, and ordered by President Putin himself for the purpose of helping Donald Trump and hurting Hillary Clinton.”

#187 T on 05.16.18 at 6:14 pm

#171 The Real Mark (not the imposter) on 05.16.18 at 2:44 pm
Okay fair enough, I guess I told Troll to get help at one point. He should know why, especially with the sort of nonsense babble he brings to a large number of his comments which appear to be almost entirely directed towards me. Or to whomever he thinks he’s talking to or about, which he, as usual, gets completely wrong.

I suspect if Garth looked at the source of the Mark imposter comments, they’d probably trace back to Troll as well. Pretty sad, that someone would spend their days attempting to obstruct the dissemination of valuable information and analysis. But then again, we know that lots of Realtors, mortgage brokers, etc. have a lot of time on their hands given the collapsing activity in their industry.

———————

You are completely delusional.

#188 turn of the tide on 05.16.18 at 7:25 pm

Garth,

What needs to happen so that what you described here (http://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/05/13/the-truth/), as far as NScotians transparency regarding (re)listings and prices, is adopted federally across the country? Thanks.

#189 Mattl on 05.16.18 at 8:11 pm

All due respect, Variable mortage don’t just appeal to those that are over leveraged. They appeal to anyone thats been following allong the past 15 years. The guys with fixed rate have taken a beating. I know this because my old man was convinced rates were going to sky rocket 12 years ago when I locked in at 4.9. They had to go up right? 4.9 is historically cheap right?

Well fast forward to today and guys are writing variables at 2.5. The low rates will last forever crowd, as of today, are still winning the argument.

Sometimes it IS different this time and money has been cheap forever. Forever, as in t longer then most mortage amorts.

#190 MrBee on 05.17.18 at 9:23 am

Why is it that “news programs” like Toronto’s Breakfast Television are allowed to have realtors and TREB presidents on the show and give their “expert” opinion on what’s really going on in the housing market in GTA.

TREB President was on this morning it’s just the big expensive homes that are seeing a decline in value – everything else is still in demand and doing well!

Why don’t news programs put disclaimers that these “experts” have a vested interest in prices remaining high? Very unethical

There are few reporters any more, and even less critical thought. – Garth

#191 Dissident on 05.17.18 at 2:26 pm

How to make millennials mad:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/want-to-make-millennials-mad-talk-about-saving-for-retirement-2018-05-16

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/millennials-havent-saved-two-years-salary-theyve-saved-one-weeks-worth-2018-05-17