My approach

RYAN  By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

Tony Robbins, the well-known motivational speaker, has a top 10 rules for success, ranging from “seeking true fulfillment” to “changing one’s mindset”. I have no idea what all that means, and cannot provide some motivational message to improve your happiness, but I can share some thoughts and strategies on how to analyze the markets and improve your investment results.

Over my 20+ years in the investment industry, earning the grueling Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designations and reading countless investment books, I have developed, I believe, a unique multi-disciplined investment approach combining macro, fundamentals and technical analysis, which has greatly improved investment results for our clients and me personally. Today I’m going to pull back the curtain and outline each one of these disciplines.

Starting first with the macro, here I focus on the big picture, analyzing the economy, the business cycle, and the outlook for interest rates.

According to Investopedia, “the business cycle describes the rise and fall in production output of goods and services in an economy”, and I believe is the single most important determinant in one’s investment strategy and portfolio positioning.

Below is an illustration of the business cycle, which was included in a recent Globe & Mail article where the reporter outlined the bullish case for commodities, in part due to the current phase of the business cycle.

The business cycle is critically important as it captures whether the economy is expanding or contracting, and it impacts the outlook for corporate profits, interest rates, and commodity prices, among other things.

The chart shows the average performance of stocks, bonds, cash, and commodities over the different stages of the business cycle. I believe we’re currently in Phase 3 or Expansion, which is typically good for commodity prices and equities. This is why we added to our Canadian and Emerging Market exposure last year and have a lower cash balance than normal.

How do we determine where we are in business cycle?

Asset Returns Over the Business Cycle

Source: Goldman Sachs, Globe & Mail

For that I focus on three key data points – GDP data, Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) and OECD Leading Indicators.

GDP is straight forward and we track historical GDP trends of the global economy and the different regions, and make projections of growth going forward. For example, we believe the Canadian economy will slow this year on higher interest rates and headwinds from the ongoing NAFTA negotiations. For the US we see GDP growth picking up on a strong US consumer and increased business investment following the cut to US corporate tax rates. Finally, we believe the emerging market economies will grow at faster rates in 2018, which was one factor in our call to increase exposure.

The other key indicators I track for economic activity are regional PMIs which track manufacturing activity across the different countries and regions. Below I illustrate this with PMIs for the developed and emerging market economies continuing to trend higher, thus confirming the positive economic momentum in the global economy.

Strong PMIs Confirm The Positive Economic Momentum

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

After I’ve determined where we are in the business cycle and what the outlook for the global economy is I then turn my attention to the fundamentals of the different geographies and global equity markets.

Here I focus on four key items – valuations, earnings growth rates, dividends and balance sheets.

Generally speaking in a faster growing economy you want to overweight the more cyclical markets, which include Canada, the emerging markets and some parts of Europe and underweight the US markets. This is because these regions have higher leverage to economic growth and commodity prices. Conversely, in a slower economy you want to be overweight US markets as the US economy is the strongest and broadest in the world, and is more reliant on internal demand than external trade.

Below is an example of a table I use in deciding which regions to over and underweight in client portfolios. Despite our bullish view of the US economy we currently have a small underweight in US stocks in part due to the high valuations for US stocks with the MSCI US Index trading at a P/E of 17.1x. In contrast the Canadian and EAFE markets trade at a cheaper 14.9x and 14.6x, respectively, which is one factor in our call to overweight these regions. Last year we doubled up our exposure to emerging market equities in part due to their very cheap valuations with the MSCI EM Index trading at just 12.3x, a nearly 5x P/E discount to the US markets.

In addition to valuations, I focus a lot on earnings growth favouring those with higher earnings growth rates. Dividend yields and balance sheet strength also come into play.

It’s important to stress that it is the totality of the information and data points that help us determine our active calls, rather than one specific factor. For example, the US has higher a projected earnings growth rate for 2018, yet we’re still leaning to the other areas given the full weight of all the factors.

Fundamental Table of the Different Regions

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments

Finally, I then look to the technicals, which are just the price charts of the different global markets. Specifically, I try to isolate those markets in long-term uptrends and those trading above key moving averages like the 200-day MA.

Even more important, I analyze the relative technical trends, which simply compares one market relative to another. For example, I often look at the relative technical trend of the TSX, European and Emerging Markets to the US market to see what’s out/underperforming. We generally try to overweight those markets that are outperforming, as we find periods of outperformance can last for some time. This is the essence of technical analysis – trying to isolate long term investment trends.

A great example of this was our decision last year to increase exposure to EM equities. As seen below, EM equities had been in a 7-year relative downtrend versus the S&P 500 (put another away the S&P 500 outperformed EM equities for 7 years), but broke out from this long-term downtrend last year. This was the final trigger we needed to increase exposure in client accounts. EM outperformed the S&P 500 by 10% last year, and we believe it’s set to outperform for another few years.

EM Equities Broke out Relative to the S&P 500 in 2017

Source: Stockcharts, Turner Investments

So there you have it. We use a mix of factors and investment disciplines in determining our investment strategy and portfolio positioning for clients. Does this make me the next Warren Buffett? Obviously not as I probably wouldn’t be writing this blog and taking my bi-weekly flogging in the comments section of this blog if it did, but it definitely helps me make more right calls than wrong ones, and it helps me to remain disciplined and not lose my head during those inevitably tough times.

In my next post I’m going present an investment opportunity that we are currently eyeing based on these three factors, so we can take it from the academic to the real world.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA,CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

 

59 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 05.12.18 at 2:57 pm

Weekend Rewind

This week in howmuch articles.

Bit of a lemon week on howmuch but maybe someone will get something out of these two articles while they tend their kids lemonade stand…

M43BC

The Best Schools for Under $20k in One Map

https://howmuch.net/articles/best-college-that-costs-less-than-20000

The Wild West of Crypto Hacks in One Graph

https://howmuch.net/articles/biggest-crypto-hacks-scams

#2 Terry on 05.12.18 at 4:09 pm

Excellent analysis Ryan. A very good read. It was good timing to re-balance portfolio exposure to EM equities last year. I remember listening to Garth’s weekly podcast’s last year and he was talking about his team suggesting re-balancing to EM equities. Again, a great post Ryan!

#3 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.18 at 4:11 pm

Another excellent article Ryan.
Thaks for the explanations/ info.
I’m copying this one for review every so often.

#4 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.12.18 at 4:24 pm

The chart showing digital propensities is very intriguing.

#5 Game Over on 05.12.18 at 4:24 pm

I must say, that was a really good post. You guys do a really great job! I appreciate the transparency and insight that not only you, but Doug and Garth provide.

Cheers!

#6 Buuurrrp on 05.12.18 at 4:34 pm

Stay invested… drink lotsa beer… works for me.

#7 Stan Brooks on 05.12.18 at 4:39 pm

The ‘Business’ cycle is actually the credit cycle.

It beats me though how return to ‘normal’ i.e. phase 4 is possible with these debt levels.

My theory is that we will go through prolonged phase 3, with extensive inflation and then through very mild phase 4 as meaningful rate normalization is not possible.

Stock will most likely be the best (and only) investment in the next 5-6, maybe 10 years.

80 % stocks, half of that in Commodities looks good.
Rest in gold and cash.

There is no option in which bonds shine as governments simple can not support the rate normalization due to their indebtedness.

Stay away from Canadian markets. The P/E numbers are misleading due to the enormous credit bubble.
Maintenance of such profits is not possible without endless credit increase causing severe decline of currency, total returns will be very very bad.

Look around and everything you see in Canada, any assets class is severely overpriced currently when measured in stable currencies due to the credit bubble.

This will not last.

Real Canadian asset prices (real estate, stocks, except some commodities) need to decline between 2.5 and 3 times as measured in strong currencies.

#8 Stan Brooks on 05.12.18 at 4:42 pm

BTW in disagreement with David Rosenberg:

Value is not Canada but Europe.

Otherwise I agree on EM.
I would not touch any Canadian company expect some miners and very selected energy plays.

#9 For those about to flop... on 05.12.18 at 4:48 pm

Pink Pollen falling in North Vancouver.

These guys just sliced ten percent off after the market told them to go for the big chop.

Picked up for 1.95 a little over a year ago,their original ask was fairly ballsy.

The realtor mentions the word ‘wether’ so I am a little confused as to whether they are selling a house or a castrated ram…

M43BC

4376 Arundel Road, North Vancouver paid 1.95 April 2017 ass 1.98

Feb 28:$2,338,000
May 11: $2,099,000
Change: – 239000.00 -10%

https://www.zolo.ca/north-vancouver-real-estate/4376-arundel-road

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#10 Susan Crawford on 05.12.18 at 5:01 pm

This post was really well done! Keep up with the great work and information!

#11 Tony on 05.12.18 at 5:11 pm

Right now I’m keying on what the hedge funds do and I’m doing the opposite. The FED and central bankers have it in for hedge funds. Also the more gold Russia accumulates the more America will smash the price of gold. It’s taken a while to figure out all this crap since Trump got elected and “the man behind the curtain”. The DOW to 25,350 by this Wednesday.

#12 Sean on 05.12.18 at 5:18 pm

Great article! I’d love to see more detailed investment strategy pieces like this one!

#13 Tony on 05.12.18 at 5:23 pm

Re: #7 Stan Brooks on 05.12.18 at 4:39 pm

There is no business cycle anymore. As well all the old books on economics are totally meaningless today. Everything is based on fabricated data coming out of America. We could see most of the corporations go out of business and the stock market will keep on making new highs. Lies can extend the so called business cycle for decades on end. New economic books will be written very soon reflecting all this.

#14 arfmoocat on 05.12.18 at 5:28 pm

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Canada was $31.5 billion in 2017, down 56.0 per cent since 2013 when it totalled $71.5 billion. And the decline is even more startling if you look back to when the data series started in 2007. FDI totalled $125.5 billion in 2007, which means the decline since 2007 totals an almost unimaginable 74.9 per cent.

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/blogs/the-finance-minister-said-what-part-2

#15 tccontrarian on 05.12.18 at 5:45 pm

“…I have developed, I believe, a unique multi-disciplined investment approach combining macro, fundamentals and technical analysis, which has greatly improved investment results for our clients and me personally.” RL
————————————————————

Two questions:
1. What sort of “investment results” am I to expect over a 10 year period?
2. Any courses in Behavioural Finance? Numbers and charts are useful but HOW investors (humans), behave based on perceptions (of those numbers and charts), is way more important, methinks.

Good post!

TCC

#16 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.12.18 at 5:57 pm

So there you have it. We use a mix of factors and investment disciplines in determining our investment strategy and portfolio positioning for clients.
………………………..

When you run out of darts do you get new ones or do you re-use the old ones ?

#17 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.12.18 at 6:19 pm

@#6 Buuuurrrp.

Its not very often I’m jealous of a commenters’ nom de plume………
But I am today.

#18 JSS on 05.12.18 at 6:37 pm

Personally speaking, I think the TSX is the place to invest these days for long term growth and dividends. There’s some great deals on blue chip Canadian dividend growth stocks in the utilities, pipelines, and railroads. Look at Hydro One for example, less than $20 for a share, and yielding around 4.3%

An etf such as XIU is paying a 2.8% yield, with a P/E of around 15x, which is a nice bargain.

#19 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.12.18 at 6:39 pm

#12 Sean on 05.12.18 at 5:18 pm
Great article! I’d love to see more detailed investment strategy pieces like this one!
……………………………

When we get down to the last few darts we let the chimp throw a few cuz he rarely misses the board.

#20 Smoking Man on 05.12.18 at 6:48 pm

Great post man.

Serious question, do factor in things like, hum. How do I put this?

Like Ottawa charging toward communism ? T2 changing election rules so they can cling to power and bring in the Marxist doctoren that aims to punish the productive and smart?

#21 Camille on 05.12.18 at 7:18 pm

Hello Ryan. Greatly appreciate your info. Transparent, honest. I’m sure this is good. Geoffrey Gundlach offers similarly, very detailed, gives outlook, but not specific allocations, which Garth often gives. At least the broad strokes. Do you buy inflation protected treasuries?

#22 Smoking Man on 05.12.18 at 7:20 pm

A message from the one precent.
https://youtu.be/zN6JV2GXyvg

#23 Tony on 05.12.18 at 7:31 pm

Re: #2 Terry on 05.12.18 at 4:09 pm

Here’s a real world analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iz592dg_9I8

#24 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.12.18 at 7:31 pm

#18 JSS
If P/E is your thing why would you accept a crummy 2.8% yield at 15x ? CM will give you 4.64% @10.5, BNS 4.10% @11.8, NA 3.81% @11.4, RY 3.76% @13.4, TD 3.61% @13.7, and BMO 3.71% @ 12.9………..2.8% ??? Really ?

#25 Ryan Lewenza on 05.12.18 at 7:43 pm

Tccontrarian “Two questions: 1. What sort of “investment results” am I to expect over a 10 year period? 2. Any courses in Behavioural Finance? Numbers and charts are useful but HOW investors (humans), behave based on perceptions (of those numbers and charts), is way more important, methinks.”

For an all equity portfolio you can expect 9% over the next 10 years. For our preferred 60/40 portfolio expect 6-7%. Yes I agree behaviour finance is an important area which is part of technical analysis. Economists believe people and markets are always efficient. Behavioural analysis shows this is not the case. – Ryan L

#26 Parsonage on 05.12.18 at 8:01 pm

Golden article Ryan, and so is the picture! ;)

#27 Ron on 05.12.18 at 8:27 pm

I’m overweight the Big 6. All those mortgages, credit cards and HELOCs at variable rates = juicy dividends for years to come. Hell even higher tax bills will be paid for by money borrowed from the banks at interest.

#28 Keith in Rio on 05.12.18 at 8:28 pm

We are currently in a “historical moment” that has never been before seen, and will be studied and written about in the centuries to come. It’s the “tulip bulb” scenario of our times.

All the learned knowledge being put forth here is irrelevant for investing when the data is fabricated, the government and banks outright lie more often than tell the truth, and the market is flooded with money by the central banks.

They are all “kicking the can” down a dead end street.

#29 Baroquemillenial on 05.12.18 at 8:28 pm

I wish I could invest with y’all, but I can’t make that 100k minimum that private investors want. I guess I’ll drop you a line in 2025, or whenever I grow my self discipline muscles and save some money.

#30 NoName on 05.12.18 at 8:46 pm

Interesting read

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/analysis-how-poverty-can-drive-down-intelligence

#31 Fish on 05.12.18 at 8:50 pm

May 30th BoC, shall see

#32 dakkie on 05.12.18 at 9:06 pm

The 3 Stage Housing Bubble Collapse

http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-3-stage-housing-bubble-collapse/

#33 Leo Trollstoy on 05.12.18 at 9:11 pm

The picture matches today’s post perfectly

zzz

#34 Loonie Doctor on 05.12.18 at 9:37 pm

I read a lot of articles. This is one of the best on an approach to asset weighting that I have read in a long while. Thanks for sharing so openly with us. I have followed the tips and advice on this blog for years and have benefited greatly from it. Most recently it was preferred shares, Europe, and Emerging markets. Much appreciated. Some of us do listen.

#35 acdel on 05.12.18 at 9:58 pm

Good post Ryan!

#36 Ace Goodheart on 05.12.18 at 9:59 pm

I can provide motivational speech to improve your happyness:

A) money can’t buy happiness: bull f$#&ing sh$t. Yes it can. Cash equals freedom. Yay let’s all make believe we are working for a cause making money so the boss man can buy a new lambo. His money bought happiness. Nuff said.

Be good to your fellow man: yeah right. Tosh off. Gartho just sent Lorna and a bunch of ideal holding oh my God I feel so good first time jobbers to the slaughter.

Why? Likely because it paid well.

F%$k your fellow man. Cash is king. Game of Thrones rules. Eat or be eaten. The proles deserve their hopeless fate.

Dig deeper. Everyone is f$#&ed. There is this fundamental thing that drives everything. It is hard. It does not change. It is like energy times momentum. It sucks the life out of garbage and promotes sincerity. It will dump you on a dime. Pump you on a breath of air. It is unstoppable and at the same time a wisp of dusk. Know it. It will know you.

Drive times sincerity times spin equals opportunity.

Or go be a financial advisor.

Or dump a lady and a bunch of kids to go buy a bank.

Cheers

#37 BCWally on 05.12.18 at 10:07 pm

Great article and well detailed. I have to ask one thing though as how does currency value and sovereign debt factor in?
As an example, foreign nations with high debt loads priced in US dollars would do quite poorly with a stronger dollar. I believe that to be the case with some of the EM nations.

#38 Steve French on 05.12.18 at 10:43 pm

But but but… Smoking Man told me I would never be a “real man”, until I bet everything I owned on a one -way currency For-Ex market trade!!

Only then… would I know and understand what it is to truly live on the edge, like a real Smoking Man.

And only then, if I win the bet, just like Smoking Man did, would I be invited to join the 1%…. of true ultra Ayn Rand capitalists.

#39 Al on 05.13.18 at 12:10 am

“When you run out of darts do you get new ones or do you re-use the old ones ?”

A little harsh but LOL, weekly flogging indeed.

#40 Smoking Man on 05.13.18 at 3:34 am

I’ve gone total smoking man on linked in under my real name. Hello DM.

Wish me luck….I’ll need it.

#41 Penny Henny on 05.13.18 at 9:17 am

One more reason it sucks to be a landlord.
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2018/05/12/syrian-refugees-who-fled-bedbug-infested-apartments-face-lawsuit-by-landlord.html

#42 Shawn on 05.13.18 at 9:35 am

Nah I disagree. What makes sense in academic theory rarely translates into reality in markets.

That EEM:SPY “breakout” could easily go flat or fail – these things rarely bottom on the 1st bounce. The consensus is currently “commodities are cheap, EMs are undervalued and the S&P500 is expensive”.

US equities, tech & USD remain the contrarian trade.

#43 Ryan Lewenza on 05.13.18 at 10:13 am

BCWally “I have to ask one thing though as how does currency value and sovereign debt factor in? As an example, foreign nations with high debt loads priced in US dollars would do quite poorly with a stronger dollar. I believe that to be the case with some of the EM nations.”

Almost every country has lots of debt outstanding so if you just look at that you’ll only invest in gold and tuna cans. With respect to EM, yes they do have some US debt outstanding but not as much as they used to and I don’t see the US dollar appreciating materially versus EM countries. Actually you can make the argument that EM currencies look attractive based on the purchasing power parity concept. – Ryan L

#44 Surf city on 05.13.18 at 10:17 am

#40 Smoking Man on 05.13.18 at 3:34 am

I’ve gone total smoking man on linked in under my real name. Hello DM.

Wish me luck….I’ll need it.
.

You’re movie must be in final production cuts…. when’s the yuuuuge premiere

#45 gfd on 05.13.18 at 11:03 am

Gloves are off.
http://lfpress.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/treb-letter-blasts-ontario-real-estate-association-over-negative-portrait-of-market/wcm/81f2cc8e-3ae5-486c-99e3-46d2e3080a16

#46 Catalyst on 05.13.18 at 11:08 am

Thanks for a great post. I think historically this business cycle made more sense for a manufacturing based economy driving commodity prices & interest rates but this current US bull is being driven by a tech revolution with balance sheets so clean this is unheard of in the history of the stock market. Access to unlimited capital markets funded their growth and many such as Google or Apple are sitting on huge cash piles that are supported by insane margins and monopolistic pricing power. Its just hard to get excited anymore about being an investor in a company that needs to burn money on capex or R&D when you have these insane cash cows with little input costs like history has never seen.

#47 For those about to flop... on 05.13.18 at 11:27 am

I will take care of three things.

Lisa on 05.11.18 at 11:02 am
Any word on Freedom First? I apologize if I missed something. I always got a chuckle out of that guy.

//////////////////////////

I reached out to Freedom via email last Sunday on the benefit of the group just to see if he was o.k.

No reply as yet.

Vanrentor on 05.11.18 at 11:14 pm
Here is one out in Tsawwassen for you to watch Flop.

They paid $1.6m 9 months ago, $365k over assessment

Just listed it for $2M looking for a investor/developer

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19419995/1236-55-STREET-Delta-British-Columbia-V4M3K3

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1Vk5FWg==

///////////////////

Thanks for the help VR,I put it in the Pink Folder and will watch what happens.

////////////////////////

Since Thor Turner has stirred up a bit of interest in the East Coast, I thought it couldn’t hurt to point out that Anthony Bourdain is doing a one hour show on Newfoundland tonight on CNN.

It’s on at 6pm Sleepyville time ,so it’s probably on at 3pm Excitementville time and most likely repeats few hours later.

The show that follows can also be worth a watch,United Shades of America,where the host tries to show the differences in the races,cultures and religions and gain a little understanding of each other.

The host is a comedian and so it is fairly light and fluffy but last week was a good one on Sikhs in America.

I get more joy out of watching these two shows than watching 5 people on a panel bashing Trump and one patsy trying to stick up for that orange blob…

M43BC

#48 Shawn on 05.13.18 at 12:08 pm

Tactical allocation using market timing usually results in long term underperformance rather than outperformance. A recent example is in 2016 the consensus trade was “overweight Europe”. VGK underperformed in 2017 in a big way…

When tactically allocating one must time both turns correctly consistently over time. This is a fools game.

Just buy VFV and forget it. Don’t try to time when to go overweight, underweight, etc. If one absolutely must have international exposure, fine but attempting to time this exposure is often futile.

#49 jess on 05.13.18 at 1:33 pm

The Minsky cycle is economist Hyman Minsky’s model on how credit cycles lead to boom and bust.
======================
headwinds
https://www.ted.com/talks/robert_gordon_the_death_of_innovation_the_end_of_growth?language=en#t-58755

#50 SoggyShorts on 05.13.18 at 1:51 pm

#36 Ace Goodheart on 05.12.18 at 9:59 pm
Be good to your fellow man: yeah right. Tosh off. Gartho just sent Lorna and a bunch of ideal holding oh my God I feel so good first time jobbers to the slaughter.
**********************
The general store was obviously doing well since someone wanted to buy it. This means those 19 jobs that Garth created from nothing are far from “slaughtered”

#51 Smoking Man on 05.13.18 at 1:59 pm

If this becomes a trend…look out.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-12/audible-gasp-was-heard-when-chicago-fed-unveiled-its-solution-pension-problem

#52 Stan Brooks on 05.13.18 at 2:11 pm

#48 Shawn on 05.13.18 at 12:08 pm
Tactical allocation using market timing usually results in long term underperformance rather than outperformance. A recent example is in 2016 the consensus trade was “overweight Europe”. VGK underperformed in 2017 in a big way…

When tactically allocating one must time both turns correctly consistently over time. This is a fools game.

Just buy VFV and forget it. Don’t try to time when to go overweight, underweight, etc. If one absolutely must have international exposure, fine but attempting to time this exposure is often futile.

==============================

VFV return 1.4 %, VGK 2.75 in dividends.

—————

For all rich homeowners in Canada:

Here is what is coming: property tax increase.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-12/audible-gasp-was-heard-when-chicago-fed-unveiled-its-solution-pension-problem

Can you imagine 2 and then 3, maybe 3.5 -4 % in yearly property taxes?

That Vaughan Mac mansion assessed with 30, then 59 k in yearly taxes?

No?

Let’s wait and see.

#53 Jamie Dimon on 05.13.18 at 2:17 pm

Garth is slick bros….ya ya Ryan sounds great….hey check this bank out!

#54 Fortune500 on 05.13.18 at 2:27 pm

Garth should do a post on this:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/treb-letter-blasts-ontario-real-estate-association-over-negative-portrait-of-market-1.3927547

Sickening

#55 Tony on 05.13.18 at 2:52 pm

Re: #52 Stan Brooks on 05.13.18 at 2:11 pm

That will certainly push down the price of residential real estate. Alberta has seen property taxes 3 to 5 times the rate of inflation each year the last decade and property values in most cases are lower today in Alberta than there were 10 years ago.

#56 Robert B on 05.13.18 at 8:11 pm

Great post Ryan

Does the portfolio mix ie 60/40 differ when someone is looking for monthly income. Rebalancing is an issue due to the monthly distribution,

#57 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 05.13.18 at 11:36 pm

I also read all those books….and took on course work for years on end…..but the birth and death of the efficient market theory are behind us….EMT is a useless stinking albatross around an investors neck. Buy good companies, collect the dividend , never sell, buy more when the market has a fire sale…..stay away from bonds altgether …..that’s the Buffet way.

#58 Tim on 05.14.18 at 8:06 am

Thanks for the data and analysis, Ryan. A keeper.

#59 Dups on 05.14.18 at 12:21 pm

Thanks for this good article. While you do speak of Emerging Markets are going to do well this year again. You do not mention anything about the currency conversion that would effect someone if they invest in Emerging Markets. My experience has shown that even if the foreign markets do great, our CAD conversion brings those gains down to nothing. Maybe you should educate the masses a bit on currency before you advice on foreign markets.