Wasted

Internal comments from one of the Big Five show mortgage originations have choked. The decline from this time last year is in the 45% range. ‘It’s a disaster,’ was the observation. And the body count in mortgage departments is quickly changing. Be happy you don’t work there, or in a branch with lending quotas.

As forecast here, the Bank of Canada benchmark mortgage rate has just increased by twenty bips, to 5.34%. That happens automatically when the chartered banks all increase their home loan costs, which transpired over the last ten days. It’s the new stress test hurdle. Anyone shopping for a mortgage or switching lenders upon renewal must prove they can handle payments which are the greater of (a) 5.34% or (b) the rate offered by the bank, plus 2%.

It matters not how much equity you have in your home nor the size of down payment. All face the stress test. It’s an effective barrier to people who formerly could save money by shopping the market, plus it means a loan from the Bank of Mom no longer exempts new buyers from proving they can finance at higher rates. As mentioned here yesterday, a household with a $100,000 income and fifty grand for a deposit must now shop for a house costing far less.

Those failing the test won’t get a loan from a bank. Or, soon, most credit unions. It’s that simple. This is why the subprime lending business has been growing by leaps and bounds. Those lenders don’t actually care if you can technically afford payments or not since they’re willing to take the risk – and assume ownership of your house if you fail. So, a whack of people are now carrying financing at 8% or above. They’re the ones at Tim’s who used to be at Starbucks. They’re doomed.

Complicating things and slowing the market is the tsunami of mortgage renewals in 2018 – almost half all existing loans are coming due. Not only are many borrowers unable to switch lenders (because of B20), but they’ll be renewing at higher levels – reducing cash flow. Selling your house and moving up the property ladder is also tougher. Higher posted rates means increased penalties for breaking an existing mortgage, while the stress test kicks in when you apply for a new one. If you wonder why markets in Toronto and Vancouver are eroding from the top, chew on that.

The point of the regulatory bottleneck is simple – reducing risk to banks. Low rates and fevered buying pushed house prices too high. Then a crush of HELOC borrowing developed, largely financing more real estate purchases. Unknown numbers of families leveraged their own appreciating homes to hand over down payments to adult children who couldn’t otherwise afford to buy. That way the kids had the 20% required to avoid mortgage insurance, plus escape the old stress test for new buyers.

But no more. When half the banks’ mortgage portfolios were uninsured, the regulatory dropped the hammer.We knew the impact of the stress test would take months to become evident. And we’re rapidly approaching that point.

Last month – usually peak real estate rutting season – was a mess. For example, just over 40% of pre-sale condos available in Vancouver sold compared to almost 95% in January. Detached home sales crashed 34% in YVR and 38% in the GTA. Prices in Toronto declined 14%, and in Vancouver condo sales dipped overall by 24%. The old adage has been proven true again – when prices fall, buyers leave. When prices surge, buying explodes. Human emotion, not logic, sets the tone. Greed has turned into fear. Properties are seen as risky assets likely to decline further. Higher rates and higher taxes just underscore what regulatory castration has done. And it’s just begun.

So, many renewers are trapped. And what a coincidence all the banks have raised lending costs when you can’t get out! Almost like they knew about the tidal wave of maturing loans…

As for wannabe buyers who can’t pass the test, three choices. (a) Move and buy a perfectly fine house where real estate costs less and the locals have no idea what FOMO means. Mom will understand. Really. (b) Buy a lesser property. (There actually used to be things called ‘starter homes.’) or, (c) rent.

Go subprime? Forget it. They are the walking dead.

155 comments ↓

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 05.10.18 at 5:21 pm

HOUSING BUBBLE TRUE OR FALSE (searching for a grain of truth in the unsubstantiated claims of realtors)

* “Unusually high increases in rents and an unusually low vacancy rate are the new normals.”
False. Rent bubbles are common with housing bubbles and rent bubbles deflate along with housing bubbles. Hundreds of years of housing bubble history proves it.

* “House prices will keep rising forever so if you don’t buy now you’ll be damaging your family’s future financial well-being.”
False. Housing bubbles always go through major price corrections that take prices back to the long-term mean. History has shown that buying in a bubble at bloated price levels has resulted in financial devastation for millions of families worldwide.

* “If prices do fall it will only be a small correction so it isn’t worth sitting on the sidelines waiting for lower prices.”
False. History has shown that housing bubbles don’t go through small price declines and that those who hold off from buying until after prices have fallen back to the long-term mean not only avoid potential financial ruin but end up buying at appreciation-friendly price levels.

* “Any price correction would take a long time so it isn’t worth waiting on the sidelines.”
False. History has proven that major price corrections of housing bubbles don’t take a long time to play out. The American correction, as one of history’s many examples, demonstrated how prices in a bubble don’t fall slowly, safely, orderly or softly. In San Francisco, for example, house prices more than doubled in 6 years but it took only 3 years for prices to lose basically half their value (- 45 %) as they fell back to the long-term mean. (Case-Shiller Index).

* “Low inventory will be permanent and prices will keep rising forever.”
False. History has no example of a housing bubble anywhere in the world at any time where low inventory became the new normal and kept house prices permanently bloated. Again, all housing bubbles go through major price corrections.

#2 Hairy Potter on 05.10.18 at 5:32 pm

First!

#3 Bill Grable on 05.10.18 at 5:33 pm

This is ANOTHER Garth Turner classic.

If you have been paying attention, Mr.Turner has flawlessly laid out the Real Estate landscape, and given solid and easy understand advice, on how to avoid the on-coming train.

Greaterfool.ca is far more than a blog. *If only some of my 400 level Economics classes, from back in the day, were this flawless.

#4 crdt on 05.10.18 at 5:34 pm

What is a few mil here or there. Peeps in the lower mainland are used to talking in huge numbers, a bit more a month, so what.. As soon as everyone finds out how awesome Vancouver is, or Amazon sets up shops, it is off to the races. BUY NOW

#5 Dead Cat Bounce on 05.10.18 at 5:38 pm

Okanagan Real Estate Flooding !!!

But not with buyers ! Reductions everywhere !!!

#6 RentYVR on 05.10.18 at 5:38 pm

Meh, as a renter with a significant amount of my savings in shares of the big 5, all that matters to me is that they keep paying me my dividends. And I trust that they will squeeze borrowers as much as they need to in order to make this happen.

#7 Rifles on 05.10.18 at 5:47 pm

So far the correction is just a blip on the real estate landscape. Appetites and perceptions adjust to the new normal. Call me in September and let me know how this has played out.

#8 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.18 at 5:56 pm

@#168 Another Cranky Boomer
“However, Baddeck has its own tax revolt involving the estate of Alexander Graham Bell. You YVR residents can take a look at the building and the amounts involved. Then you can either laugh or cry.”
++++
Almost bought some ppty outside of Baddeck.
Nice country.

Now that the clubhouse has burnt down at Belle Bay.
Where does a thirsty golfer go after 18?

#9 Shawn Allen on 05.10.18 at 5:59 pm

It Costs A Lot Of Money To Be Poor

“So, a whack of people are now carrying financing at 8% or above.”

****************************************
Poor people and those with poor credit ratings and poor cash flow pay more for a lot of things.

They generally and rightly face the highest interest rates.

They pay interest on credit cards and subsidise wealthier people who earn points and rewards on credit cards and pay nothing in interest. The poorest people can’t get a credit card and/or use cash by choice but then face retail prices that are boosted by at least 2% to pay for those credit card fees (including to pay the costs of credit card rewards).

Blessed are the Poor.

#10 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 05.10.18 at 6:02 pm

This fraudulent housing market is going to crash hard. Happy Housing Crash Everyone Everyone ! :-)

#11 Our pal val on 05.10.18 at 6:03 pm

Told you so! BIS rules…. next fear turns to anxiety then the blood letting begins….

#12 Leo Trollstoy on 05.10.18 at 6:07 pm

Remember when some unemployed x-Nortel guy said that interest rates were going down and deflation was coming?

Lol

Wrong!

#13 John Blair on 05.10.18 at 6:11 pm

You bring up a very good point that I think gets misquoted by those hoping for a soft landing, namely that rising prices INCREASE demand for real estate (and other financial assets) and by contrast falling prices DECREASE demand for real estate.

It is backwards from a theoretical economics perspective but does apply in reality

(bonus points for anyone who wants to attempt to draw the supply/demand graph for the real estate market)

#14 Leo Trollstoy on 05.10.18 at 6:12 pm

A year ago some of the biggest price gains in a bubbly time were happening up where the deer and groundhogs used to call home. Speculation was rampant.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/04/10/no-pity/

Gartho called the housing peak of 2017

He was right

Everybody else is wrong

#15 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 05.10.18 at 6:13 pm

YVRvan on 05.10.18 at 12:15 pm
You’re gonna love this one Happy. You know when shysters use the C-word, it’s serious.

https://biv.com/article/2018/05/realtors-developers-brace-crash
______________________________________

It nice to see these SHYSTERs complain and about rules imposed. They like it when government inflates the market but not when it deflates it.

#16 Who is the fool on 05.10.18 at 6:17 pm

I don’t know where any of the info In this blog is coming from – have you tried buying a condo in Toronto today ? Multiple offers within hours of listing

Only fools are those who ever sell real estate or listen to this blog and don’t buy (even now)

Even detached – buy today and you will be happy you did in ten years

Don’t listen to the greater fools on this blog

This post excepted of course :)

#17 JSS on 05.10.18 at 6:19 pm

“They’re the ones at Tim’s who used to be at Starbucks. They’re doomed.”

i once had a Starbucks latte, back in around 2015.

it was amazing. It was a treat for me. I didn’t tell my wife that I had a starbucks.

#18 MF on 05.10.18 at 6:21 pm

Lol that list of three things leaves no good option.

1) Move where exactly? My life, family, job, and career is all in the GTA. Like this blog has mentioned many times, money is not everything. Time and family/friends is. I’m not going to move away from my life and miss it all so I can save a few bucks. Woopee.

2) A “lesser property” starter home doesn’t exist anymore. That ship sailed about 10 years ago.

3) Rent is just going up and up. Waste of money for a lot of people.

Hence…continued demand for housing. Hence sub prime. Hence big time borrowing (if you qualify) will continue.

MF

#19 My Sister Told Me on 05.10.18 at 6:22 pm

I voted for: “Move and buy a perfectly fine house where real estate costs less and the locals have no idea what FOMO means.” Haven’t regretted it.

#20 Roial1 on 05.10.18 at 6:24 pm

Well, here I go again, out of the country.
This time it is England’s Cornwall. Without your advice about finances I could not do this traveling.

Thank you Garth!!!!

#21 Vancouver Realtors, developers brace for crash on 05.10.18 at 6:29 pm

In April, just 43% of pre-sale condos offered in Metro Vancouver sold, compared to 94% in January, 83% in February and 63% in March, said Cameron McNeill, a partner in MLA Canada, the real estate marketing firm that hosted the Pre-Sale Pulse seminar at Olympic Village.

High-profile real estate developers, marketing executives and real estate agents are bracing for a sustained downturn in the housing market after sales in April – usually one of the most active months of the year – plunged by double-digits across Metro Vancouver.

https://biv.com/article/2018/05/realtors-developers-brace-crash

#22 Lost ...but not leased on 05.10.18 at 6:31 pm

Pre-sale condo market collapsing ?

Thank God….about time..fasten yer seatbelts !

#23 paul on 05.10.18 at 6:36 pm

So cashless society dead ahead, has anyone else notice the bank machine are doing away with $100.00 dollar bills? Went to three branches of C.I.B.C the largest bills are fifties.

#24 Parksville Prankster on 05.10.18 at 6:36 pm

… the price melt for houses here on Vancouver Island is slower than the Andrea Doria sinking into the North Sea. I’m tempted to put a stick into the ground to observe if there’s been any yearly change in the glacial pace of price point drops.

#25 BC is at all time insanity on 05.10.18 at 6:39 pm

164K income required to not have a negative balance sheet for Vancouver Island and the Interior if you are borrowing with a 20% or less down payment for a house.

Nothing to see here.

Then there is the Lower Mainland.

#26 Musty Basement Dweller on 05.10.18 at 6:39 pm

Below are excellent, well researched CBC podcasts on the Vancouver Real Estate market and the Foreign Capital debate. In my opinion the best episodes are 4, 5, and 6. Sorry if this is a duplicate posting, I don’t usually read every single comment every night.

http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/sold/

#27 Smoking Man on 05.10.18 at 6:41 pm

Ha, the pic was me last Saturday night.
Never again.

#28 crossbordershopper on 05.10.18 at 6:41 pm

cant give a way a home in rural saskatchewan, like no bid. at any price. there are litterly no buyers. no one is getting qualified for any mortgage over extended on big f150’s
i am offering the best deal i could think of for a house 3 bed 2 bath, 2 storey 1400 sq for $125K.
no buyers, town of 10K people.
so i am renting to anyone for 1250 month, they pay utilties, and in 8 years, they own the house, i simply sign it over to them. its that stupid now.

#29 jess on 05.10.18 at 6:44 pm

oh but now we are a different bank? rlly

An ‘Unforgivable’ Scandal

Thomas Borgen
Source: Danske Bank A/S

Danske Chief Executive Officer Thomas Borgen has apologized for failing to stop the bank from becoming a laundromat for alleged criminals who, according to the Berlingske newspaper reports that triggered the FSA’s probe, channeled billions of dollars from Russia, Azerbaijan and Moldova through its Estonian branch between 2010 and 2014.

The Danish government has called Danske’s role in the scandal “unforgivable.” The central bank says the case has put the whole country’s reputation at risk.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-07/the-mean-and-lean-bank-culture-that-fed-a-dirty-money-scandal

Danske CEO Apologizes After Money Laundering Scandal Explodes
By Frances Schwartzkopff
May 3, 2018, 3:18 AM EDT Updated on May 4, 2018, 2:27 AM EDT

“The Danish Financial Supervisory Authority said on Thursday that Danske’s management failed on multiple counts to act in compliance with the rules. The assessment followed reports by the Berlingske newspaper that Danske was used as a laundromat by criminals, including entities with ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian security service, FSB, as well as members of the Azeri regime. The money laundering, alleged to have taken place between 2010 to 2014, was done via Danske’s operations in Estonia, “….

#30 Nonplused on 05.10.18 at 6:45 pm

And don’t forget the new carbon taxes which Turdeau intends to implement nation wide and which Nutely has already implemented. I’m not sure what the environment barbie has in mind for how this will work, will it be a carbon tax on a carbon tax sort of how federal and provincial income taxes work, or will there be a federal discount if you already pay provincial, or will it be harmonized like the HST? Either way it will take thousand’s of dollars a year out of a family of 4’s take home pay. So that’s going to squeeze what people can pay for a house even further (as well as everything else).

It’s super stupid, they could have accomplished the exact same thing by just doubling the HST only with a lot less paperwork. Calling it a “carbon tax” is pure evil virtue signalling. It is a tax on everything, including the power you need to charge your iPhone. So is the HST, but why not just double that? It would have the same effect on people’s spending. Sure, placing it on carbon might be good for the renewables industry, but it’s going to be years and years before that makes a sizable difference in the energy mix.

I can prove it’s just a tax grab by answering 3 simple questions:

“Will the carbon tax have a meaningful impact on the consumption of carbon fuels in Canada?” (The answer is no in the short term without crashing the economy, little effect in the medium term and maybe a bit of an effect in the long term but probably not much over what would have happened anyway. They were building windmills and LED bulbs before the carbon tax.)

“Even if it does reduce the consumption of carbon fuels in Canada, will that have a meaningful impact on global carbon emissions?” (The answer is no, Canada is a tiny country and even though per capita consumption is high because we’re rich and it’s freakin’ cold in the winter our emissions account for about 3% of the world total.)

“Even if Canada’s contribution to global warming is relatively small, can we set an example for other countries to follow and thus encourage larger countries to also enact carbon taxes and reduce consumption?” The answer to this one is a resounding “no”, China and the US will never have a carbon tax. Maybe in California but no where else. Nor will Russia, India, or any of the developing world. And China has actual real economists who worry about money instead of politics and they know that economic activity and energy consumption are closely tied together. They think what we are doing is silly.

So, since we can conclude that the carbon tax will have little to no effect on energy consumption in Canada, Canada can have little to no effect on the overall world wide consumption of carbon fuels, and even if Canada attempts to lead the world at great expense to it’s own people the world will not follow, we can safely assume it is just a tax grab wrapped up in a bunch of moral virtue signalling.

But it will have a significant effect on the Canadian economy as even more of your hard earned and already taxed 4 times money heads into the black hole of economics known as government.

Is global warming real? Probably. Will carbon taxes in Canada stop it? Hardly. Is it a big deal? I don’t know but you can still get a 40 mortgage in Florida so the banks don’t seem to think so.

#31 Dolce Vita on 05.10.18 at 6:47 pm

Another quote from the YVR seminar you mention (“just over 40% of pre-sale condos available in Vancouver sold compared to almost 95% in January” provided by Richard Bell, executive vice-chair and founder of Avesdo Inc. at a YVR real estate seminar May 8):

“This is Vancouver,” agreed Bell.

“It will come back.”

No it won’t and for many years to come.

NOT when you’re bracing for a pre-sale condo crash.

https://biv.com/article/2018/05/realtors-developers-brace-crash

#32 jess on 05.10.18 at 6:51 pm

companies house “register”

Documents at Companies House give the name of one officer as ‘the Chicken Thief’, with the occupation of ‘fraudster’

pathetic!

The UK has at least 29 anti-money laundering regulators, with thousands of staff, yet none seem to perform checks on companies connected with questionable individuals. Individuals with criminal records can still control companies here because, the Department for Business says, “Companies House does not have powers to verify the authenticity of company directors, secretaries and registered office addresses”.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/08/tax-haven-transparency-money-laundering-britain

#33 Hopeful on 05.10.18 at 6:55 pm

A colleague who was looking for a place since last year was able to negotiate over 170k for a townhouse in GTA. But in the same conversation he mentioned that Doug Ford winning the election and reducing tax will bring the house prices back up. Thoughts?

Nobody can reduce taxes without slashing spending. Too screwed up. – Garth

#34 Tony on 05.10.18 at 7:03 pm

Re: #6 RentYVR on 05.10.18 at 5:38 pm

Is there a worse place to put money than the big 5 banks? The cost of living in Canada is far too high and the banks in Canada will reflect this fact in the future. That’s the reason you don’t hold Canadian bank shares unless it’s with subprime lenders.

#35 Dolce Vita on 05.10.18 at 7:04 pm

We all know that RE Boards withhold information from buyers (e.g., Days on Market or DOM).

DOM reported as 20 in April by TREB.

John Pasalis “Real DOM” as he calls it (expired, terminated and suspended listings for the same house over the past year):

https://twitter.com/JohnPasalis/status/994543126285975552

Frankenumber®.

#36 Penny Henny on 05.10.18 at 7:12 pm

Last month – usually peak real estate rutting season – was a mess. For example, just over 40% of pre-sale condos available in Vancouver sold compared to almost 95% in January. Detached home sales crashed 34% in YVR and 38% in the GTA. Prices in Toronto declined 14%, and in Vancouver condo sales dipped overall by 24%.-GT

////////////////////////////

Prices in the core of 416 are still strong. Some of the outer limits of 416 are not fairing so well. Location, location, location.

That point has been made here often. – Garth

#37 rents on 05.10.18 at 7:16 pm

i thought they were going down?

LOL!!!!!

i love being a landlord. Business is rocking

#38 -=jwk=- on 05.10.18 at 7:25 pm

The old adage has been proven true again – when prices fall, buyers leave. When prices surge, buying explodes. Human emotion, not logic, sets the tone.

You are offered two items, both priced the same with the same utility to you. One will rise in value while you own it. The other will drop in value while you own it. I would get the riser, you can have the loser. Logic,huh?

“Move and buy a perfectly fine house where real estate costs less and the locals have no idea what FOMO means.” We went to Ottawa and the insanity seemed to follow us….

@#30 China just launched the worlds largest carbon market. they will be using it to hit their Paris accord goals. The EU has had a carbon market covering about 50% of all their energy production for years. The US and Canada are the last major markets to get a carbon tax/market…

#39 Dolce Vita on 05.10.18 at 7:28 pm

With the last vestige of RE sales in retreat (condo’s), RE sales in YVR and 416 land in the doldrums.

So, what else could happen?

8% of Cdn. households have mortgage debt that’s more than 350% of their gross income.

Between 2007 and early 2012, 4 million US households were foreclosed on (3.5% of total US households in 2007).

Canada has double the percentage of at risk households that it took to crash the US RE market.

April-May sales a failure. Nothing more than sellers testing the market with small price drops. Result: few sales.

Any more rate increases and “motivated” sellers will drop prices by a lot come this September just to get out of the RE market with what they can salvage.

#40 Dolce Vita on 05.10.18 at 7:32 pm

#36 Penny Henny

Post your home value here in the next few days (as in comparable listings, not what you think it is worth).

Get back to us with its value in the 4th Qtr.

Then we can determine for certain if the following holds true:

“Prices in the core of 416 are still strong.”

#41 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.10.18 at 7:32 pm

Nobody can reduce taxes without slashing spending. Too screwed up. – Garth
………………….

Trump just did it. Job numbers are up, unemployment down, confidence is high, and the stock markets are are plumping and swelling.

And the US debt/deficit situation is worsening daily. He kicked the can down the road. That’s not what a true conservative does. – Garth

#42 RentYVR on 05.10.18 at 7:36 pm

@#34 Tony

The big 5 have a gov’t protected license to effectively print money. That won’t change no matter how bad the domestic economy gets. And they will never -ever – cut their dividends. That’s why they are so aggressive in squeezing debtors as they know the storm is coming and know what it takes to weather it. So yeah, I’m keeping my big 5 allocation nice and strong.

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.18 at 7:41 pm

Hey!
Teachers in BC are taking a “Pro D” day on May the 18th.
A Friday just before the longweekend……..imagine that……

#44 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.10.18 at 7:46 pm

Trump just did it. Job numbers are up, unemployment down, confidence is high, and the stock markets are are plumping and swelling.

And the US debt/deficit situation is worsening daily. He kicked the can down the road. That’s not what a true conservative does. – Garth
…………………
Unemployment rate is at lowest level since 2000, offshore money coming home to be reinvested in USA, corporate profits plumping and swelling, stock markets steadily rising….The Trumpet doesn’t care about your conservative label, he is cleaning up the mess he inherited and making it all work. Wasn’t it you that said the national debt was never meant to be paid off ?

He is not god. Get over it. Increasing the burden on future citizens to placate current ones never ends too well. – Garth

#45 Aristocratic Canadian Millenial at Bayview or Davisville on 05.10.18 at 8:08 pm

Lululemon yoga pants don’t match with Louis Vuitton Tracadero sneakers. Louis Vuitton is for gentlemen and respectable women, not for chavs and lower class people.

#46 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.10.18 at 8:12 pm

Unemployment rate is at lowest level since 2000, offshore money coming home to be reinvested in USA, corporate profits plumping and swelling, stock markets steadily rising….The Trumpet doesn’t care about your conservative label, he is cleaning up the mess he inherited and making it all work. Wasn’t it you that said the national debt was never meant to be paid off ?

He is not god. Get over it. Increasing the burden on future citizens to placate current ones never ends too well. – Garth
……………………………..

Did you change your mind about paying off the national debt ?

Learn the difference between deficits and debt. – Garth

#47 BlogDog123 on 05.10.18 at 8:14 pm

I see in my neighbourhood, all these monster homes going up, slowly. Probably contractors, their side hustle is buying up 60-year old homes close to Toronto, hoping to flip ’em. Only now they’re too slow, too late and when they go to sell, they won’t get anything near what they are expecting. So they make sure the house is super-large, hoping some sucker buys it… eventually.

#48 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.10.18 at 8:29 pm

#45 Aristocratic Canadian Millenial at Bayview or Davisville on 05.10.18 at 8:08 pm
Lululemon yoga pants don’t match with Louis Vuitton Tracadero sneakers. Louis Vuitton is for gentlemen and respectable women, not for chavs and lower class people.
……………………….

The yoga pants look good on me but matching toques are really hard to find.

#49 Trump $1 trillion annual deficits on 05.10.18 at 8:29 pm

#44 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 05.10.18 at 7:46 pm

What mess are you talking about? Inheriting 4% unemployment from Obama?

Have you ever even seen a chart of the unemployment rate? https://imgur.com/7NM8DkJ

You sound like you’re insane and living in a delusional fantasy world that does not exist.

Fox News Research: Trump’s First Year in Office Worst For Job Growth Since 2010
https://www.mediaite.com/online/fox-news-research-trumps-first-year-in-office-worst-for-job-growth-since-2010/

And the US debt/deficit situation is worsening daily. He kicked the can down the road. That’s not what a true conservative does. – Garth

That’s literally what every conservative/Republican ever does.

#50 Long Branch Apprentice on 05.10.18 at 8:43 pm

Canadians are a boring and dumb lot.

There’s more to life than real estate, you bunch of sheep.

Baaah, baaah, baaah.

#51 What can I say about that? on 05.10.18 at 8:44 pm

“They’re doomed.” – Garth

———————————————————

Dramatic, but untrue. All they have to do is hold on for 10 years and their RE will be worth much more than it is today. KD isn’t that bad.

#52 Reality is stark on 05.10.18 at 8:46 pm

When Doug Ford is elected he will reduce allocations to municipalities as he tries to get a handle on finances. Look for those municipalities to drastically ramp up property taxes. The money has to come from the people who have it. All your artificial gains will get taxed back.
In 10 years you will all realize you have been had. You may feel wealthier today with property gains but as a society we are stagnating and instead of administrating responsibly the government intends to expropriate every nickel they can steal.
You will pay for all their excess as they squeeze every ounce of wealth they can extract from you.
At one time people served on school boards for free to give back to the community, imagine that.

#53 cultural elitist on 05.10.18 at 8:48 pm

@ #13 John Blair

that rising prices INCREASE demand for real estate (and other financial assets) and by contrast falling prices DECREASE demand for real estate.

It is backwards from a theoretical economics perspective but does apply in reality

(bonus points for anyone who wants to attempt to draw the supply/demand graph for the real estate market)

I’m not an economist, but Steve Keen seems to be trying to create a theoretical model that encompasses behavioural dynamics. I’m sure others are doing the same, although they are largely left out the the official economics textbooks.

See here:
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/08/12/behavioral-finance-lecture-01-debunking-demand-and-supply-analysis/

Does Steve get your bonus points? :-)

#54 What can I say about that? on 05.10.18 at 8:50 pm

“So, many renewers are trapped. And what a coincidence all the banks have raised lending costs when you can’t get out! Almost like they knew about the tidal wave of maturing loans…” – Garth

————————————————

Garth, this is why they’re called banksters. A designation you don’t like, but nevertheless very apt. They are sanctioned by the powers that be to take as much of your wealth as they can.

#55 Big Kahuna on 05.10.18 at 9:20 pm

The sad thing is that even those that hate Donald Trump with an incredible irrational fervor accept that- with the possible exception of Doug Ford-we don’t have anyone in this country to even attempt to right the sinking ship of state.

#56 Shawn Allen on 05.10.18 at 9:27 pm

Why are the Big 5 Banks So Profitable?

#42 RentYVR on 05.10.18 at 7:36 pm said:

The big 5 have a gov’t protected license to effectively print money.

***************************************
The government license is often said to be the reason for the profit of the big 5 banks. It is said that they are an oligopoly.

But I don’t think it is the license or charter that is the real reason for the big profits.

There are 28 licenced Schedule I banks in Canada. Plus 21 foreign banks and 44 Trust companies and 18 loan companies. These are just the federally regulated banks/lenders. There are scores of provincially regulated credit unions. Is this really an oligopoly?

If having few competitors was the key to profits, Air Canada would not have gone broke twice.

Usually companies with a commodity profit struggle to make big profits. When you borrow money or put money into a a savings account (especially where Canadian Deposit insurance applies) that seems very much like a commodity product.

I think the real reason for bank profitability is that once they nab us as a customer we tend to stay. It is very inconvenient to switch your main chequing account. So we seldom do. And for many people when they need a new financial product it is simply more convenient to just get it from their current bank.

Also bigger banks have greater scale and lower costs, including advertising costs. So, once the big five got really huge they had lower costs and huge visibility and it became hard for the licensed smaller competitors to compete.

Another reasons for big profits is that they are leveraged to the hilt. Royal Bank has common equity of about 5% of its assets although they calculate closer to 9% on a risk-weighted basis.

I believe a quiet collusion or a gentlemanly restraint in competition also contributes to profit. Almost every bank charges the same 2.5% foreign exchange fee adder on their credit cards.

Branding also comes into it. At the end of the day we might not love Royal Bank or TD but we trust them not to actually steal our money. We mostly don’t have the same trust for tiny banks. There is a reason the nice lady at the bank attracts so much investment money. Trust and convenience are a big part of that reason.

The big five banks do make huge profits (think 18% return on equity) but how can the license or charter be the reason when there are loads of licensed competitors?

#57 conan on 05.10.18 at 9:30 pm

“That’s literally what every conservative/Republican ever does.”

Don’t forget they cut budgets while drinking a cases of beer. Always the same, save a million that ends up costing the next government 10 million.

It’s a joke when they claim to be stewards of the economy.

I am sure there are some good Conservatives out there, I have not seen any in Canada. Its a wasteland.

LOL @ Harper and his one page ad in the NYT. I swear they are orchestrating End Times. What a Maroon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7kZXXm2J7k

#58 tccontrarian on 05.10.18 at 9:39 pm

“So, many renewers are trapped. And what a coincidence all the banks have raised lending costs when you can’t get out! Almost like they knew about the tidal wave of maturing loans…”
————————————————————

Hahahahaha…now you’re sounding more like me (conspiratorial).
In my view, very few things are actually coincidence. The ultra-elite have all the time and resources they need to plan out every detail.
Heck, they even figured out how to destroy sky-scrapers with planes! LOL

TCC

#59 For those about to flop... on 05.10.18 at 9:44 pm

Hey Dirty Shyster,if you have time can you tell me what these recent sales went for?

Thanks in advance.

Just do one ,two ,how many you can.

It’s all good ,from what I have gathered there are a lot of lurkers ,like the person who wrote me yesterday that appreciate the effort and like verified information in a timely manner.

If you don’t wanna keep calling yourself Dirty Shyster may I suggest Crealiever.

Which is a mash up of Crea and believer.

Then again you appear to have a warped sense of humour like myself…

M43BC

3100 Blundell Rd,Richmond Paid 1.77 January 2017 ass1.59 asking 1.99

1540 STEVENS ST WHITE ROCK paid 1.04 ass1.02 asking 1.19

807 Fowler Court, Coquitlam paid 1.41 April 2016 ass1.35 asking 1.56

7813 18th ave,Burnaby paid 1.31 May 2017 Ass 1.23 asking 1.44

1002 Clements Avenue, North Vancouver paid 2 m June 2016 asking 1.89

6008 6th st ,Burnaby.Paid 2.42 Feb 2017 asking 2.58 now 2.38

2891 Pandora Street, Vancouver paid 1.39 asking 1.39

1285 Sherman Street, Coquitlam paid 1.08 May 2017 ass 1.12 asking 998

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#60 MF on 05.10.18 at 9:59 pm

#57 conan on 05.10.18 at 9:30 pm

Bravo to Harper. Wish he was still in control.

Stood up to the worthless UN. Stood up to the idiot leftists. Stood up for the western world.

MF

#61 MF on 05.10.18 at 10:02 pm

#54 What can I say about that? on 05.10.18 at 8:50 pm

“They are sanctioned by the powers that be to take as much of your wealth as they can.”

-Why don’t you go buy bank shares then? Sounds like a cannot lose option if that’s the case.

MF

#62 john m on 05.10.18 at 10:06 pm

I remember when you were an MP Garth and Harper and Flaherty changed the mortgage rules for CMHC.You were dead set against it and they tried to destroy you.If only they had listened..they created a false economy which is now heading for the largest loss of personal wealth in Canada’s history i.m.o. Thanks for your service Garth you were so right!

#63 MF on 05.10.18 at 10:10 pm

#58 tccontrarian on 05.10.18 at 9:39 pm

“They” tried once prior in 1993, and then had 8 years to plan 9/11.

It’s funny how the 911 conspiracy theorists never mention that 1993 WTC bombing…..because it was a relative failure, and doesn’t fit the narrative.

MF

#64 georgist on 05.10.18 at 10:31 pm

> #16 Who is the fool on 05.10.18 at 6:17 pm

> I don’t know where any of the info In this blog is coming from – have you tried buying a condo in Toronto today ? Multiple offers within hours of listing

> Only fools are those who ever sell real estate or listen to this blog and don’t buy (even now)

Didn’t have to scroll down as far today to find a desperate landlord.

Good stuff. Keep ’em coming.

#65 georgist on 05.10.18 at 10:36 pm

#32 jess on 05.10.18 at 6:51 pm

> companies house

the uk is the epicenter of financial fraud. Nearly all the tax havens are British territories. Every country that has a chronic housing bubble (or had one) has UK banking and legal system (property/banking/land laws):

Australia
Canada
USA
Britain

If you neutered UK corruption and money laundering, poorer countries would be a lot less poor. That’s costing real lives every single day.

#66 poy on 05.10.18 at 10:37 pm

the only greaterfools are the ones who comment here believing the market will crash. Maybe in most parts of canada but not in vancouver and toronto. Try buying a 1 or 2 bed condo and you gotta compete with others.

However anything over 2.0 million its another story

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.10.18 at 10:38 pm

@#64 Floppie
“Crealiever”
+++++

Not bad. Not bad.
May I suggest.
Cry-ster
Dirty Shy-ster
Cry-ster Shyster
In-sigh-der Shy-ster
Crea-pee Shyster

I know I know.
You’re amazed at my homonymous interpretations.

Glad I could help

#68 georgist on 05.10.18 at 10:42 pm

jwk:

> I would get the riser, you can have the loser. Logic,huh?

This is actually quite simplistic. We’ve seen how high land prices destroy jobs in the long term. Real jobs, not realtor cyclical crap.

I’m pretty sure I’ve never read a good comment that ends in “Logic, huh?”. Still haven’t.

#69 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 05.10.18 at 10:44 pm

Hah. As I’ve pointed out a zillion times when real estate crashes the stock market starts to dance. Every month of gains on the market has squeezed the trapped real estate holders and the main will only accelerate. Look at where the market has gone since the RE crash began in earnest…tickling 16000 again….Hah.

For those with nothing but a fat sucking you will watch the sweet dividend paying aristocrats spitting out huicy dividends and additional capital gains…..while you’re mortgage goes up and you have to cut back to McCafe from Sbux. Happy KD nights ……with the kids.

Nothing you can do now…..you’re in the pincers of an immediacey bias that will drain you for a decade while the conversation turns from flipping condos to flipping burgers. Expect the number of realtards to drop dramatically in the first six months. I bet anyone that the abandonded desk and auto lease jingle mail carnage has already started.in a year the street signs will be exclusively Mom’s with zero education and few job prospects working RE part time with a working husband. Back to the Future every time. Most are like behind on desk rent and six months of no commission will mean downsizing and selling the furniture. Hah…..seen this dozens of times.

I said months ago that sub prime would explode….and here it is. 8% is nothing…….I’ll start lending at 15%….meanwhile the market is giving me that so no point in jumping ship. A mentor of mine once said….”Always ride your horse the direction it wants to run”. In other words ….the trend is your friend.

Anyway, I’m going to Bali…..buying stocks every day now as higher highs confirm a nice firm recovery…..

#70 Yorkville Renter on 05.10.18 at 10:56 pm

#49 for best post of the day… #57 close behind

America needs fixing – 100% agree – but Trump ain’t the guy to do it.

#71 rental property math on 05.10.18 at 11:16 pm

When are you going to make a post on cheap landlord guy repairs? Anytime my tenants ask me to do something that I don’t feel like doing all I have to say is oh I wasn’t planning on doing that until I sell the house. Now they would want me to consider doing that right? That’s the biggest fear among renters. That and Dougie removing rent control.

#72 Bby renter on 05.10.18 at 11:27 pm

Hey Flop,

I was just looking at houses in North Van. Here is what I can see:

1002 Clements Ave sold for $1,808,000 on March 14th

7813 18th Ave Bby sold for 1,445, 000 on March 17th

6008 6th St Bby sold for $2,203,000 on March 8th.

#73 Bozo on 05.10.18 at 11:35 pm

These pictures you get are awesome just by themselves! lol My GF is in real-estate and keep sending her here….she’s like quite being so negative! I say you’re part of the problem! lol I sleep on the couch often.

#74 Robbie on 05.10.18 at 11:36 pm

#43 crowdedelevatorfartz
As an ex-teacher I can remember those Fridays before the May long weekend when many students were missing from class as their parents took a day off work and then took their kids out of school so the family could get away a day early and avoid the long weekend traffic. That Friday often became a wasted day because of the missing students and thus an important lesson couldn’t be taught because it would just have to be taught again when the students returned. It’s not a bad idea to have the teachers take that day as a PRO-D day…they are at workshops, not driving off to the lake.

#75 burnaby guy on 05.11.18 at 12:00 am

“Gartho called the housing peak of 2017

He was right

Everybody else is wrong”

No Leo Trollstoy, Garth was not right – just ask 2013 peak/apex RE Mark.
2013 peak/apex RE Mark is always right. His sales mix theory makes complete sense. Didn’t you read his many posts? I even agree with him that there is no inflation in Canada even with gas at $1.61 in Burnaby.
2013 peak/apex RE Mark – I am sure you know I am being extremely sarcastic.

#76 Tony on 05.11.18 at 12:47 am

Re: #42 RentYVR on 05.10.18 at 7:36 pm

It seems only Canadians are long the Canadian banks while the entire rest of the world is short the Canadian banks. I wouldn’t want to be a hero just because you live in Canada.

#77 Linda on 05.11.18 at 12:48 am

#9 – the only way ‘wealthy’ people or anyone who has a credit card can pay ‘nothing in interest’ is if those people pay off the monthly balance in full each month before the due date. Poor people are not ‘subsidizing’ other cardholders when they do not pay off their credit cards. They are only ‘subsidizing’ the credit card company.

#78 Van City Man on 05.11.18 at 1:00 am

I bought in 2005 and I barely noticed the 2008 “crash.” In the long term Vancouver real estate is an excellent investment.

#79 Ian on 05.11.18 at 1:04 am

#41 Watson

The first thing Trump needed to do as President is cut spending.

You are in dreamland if you think this 21t debt and 2t deficit situation lasts past the end of the year. I think the next six months it comes home to roost. The US yields creeping up tell you all you need to know. The US is a fiscal timebomb about to go off.

The problem with the US is no admistration can ever cut spending. Reagan couldn’t, David Stockman’s book explains why. No senator wants spending cut in their state, so nothing ever gets done. Trump isn’t even trying.

I am so fiscally conservative I make Barry Goldwater look like Bernie Sanders. Barry Goldwater and Rand Paul are my heroes. Rand is the only senator out of 100 saying spending should be cut.

Garth is right. A real leader doesn’t tell his Fed Reserve to keep rates low to kick the can down the road. A real leader balances the budget and makes government as small as possible so taxes are low and things thrive.

#80 margaret on 05.11.18 at 1:05 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiaHiU6Otk8

#81 Ian on 05.11.18 at 1:12 am

#52 Reality

I think you’re on to something there. There’s no way an 11.6b deficit gets dealt with without some passing of the buck to the the municipalities.

#82 Ian on 05.11.18 at 1:14 am

#57 Conan

That isn’t actually true. We have Maxime Bernier, who was my first choice in the leadership race. His platform was incredible, a true voice of freedom. He’ll have a big influence when we get back to governing.

Blues 2019!

#83 jane24 on 05.11.18 at 1:58 am

Morning Grath, don’t you love May – what a wonderful month!

First point is that carbon taxes in Canada are just a tax grab. You only have to live in Dubai or Hanoi to realize that Canadians paying more is not going to make even a tiny bit of difference to global warming until the many second and third level countries in the world under going their industrial revolution stage get through it or decide themselves that global warning is of concern. You can’t even see properly in downtown Hanoi due to pollution but they don’t care -yet. Canadians are suckers to fall for this one. Tax grab.

The Prime Minster of Australia said that asking his country to have carbon taxes when China didn’t was a joke so he didn’t charge them. Australians do call it as it is in life.

Second point is that many Canadian levels of govt are dependent for their own spending on RE taxes through the buying and selling process. What will happen now the tap is switching off. Yep, more taxes to compensate. Or Ford being elected to turn the tap on again in Ontario.

#84 Howard on 05.11.18 at 3:38 am

$700K for a boarded-up shack in Leslieville!

http://www.century21.ca/scott.ingram/Property/ON/M4L2W3/Toronto/28_Woodfield_Rd_46E4108011

#85 Myra Andrews on 05.11.18 at 3:51 am

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul

May 10 New 229 Sold 126 TI 10957
May 9 New 309 Sold 172 TI 10914
May 8 New 318 Sold 117 TI 10835
May 7 New 389 Sold 131 TI 10697

May 4 New 191 Sold 110 TI 10540
May 3 New 213 Sold 103 TI 10503
May 2 New 268 Sold 146 TI 10481
May 1 New 363 Sold 134 TI 10420
Apr 30 New 375 Sold 163 TI 10349

April 16-27 New 2453 Sold 1224 TI 10,347
April 3-13 New 2111 Sold 916 TI 9727

Mar 19-29 New 1834 Sold 1072 TI 9032
Mar 5-16 New 2248 Sold 1224 TI 8743

The inventory at the end of February was 8211

#86 Bobby on 05.11.18 at 7:01 am

For #9,

So typically Canadian. Because someone cannot pay off their credit card it is always someone else’s fault. No wonder many Canadians are financial basket cases.

#87 Ace Goodheart on 05.11.18 at 7:09 am

Well, you can now get a 3 year GIC for over 3%:

https://www.ratehub.ca/gics?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI56LdqsL92gIVh0CGCh3N2Q1AEAAYAiAAEgIVrfD_BwE

Yeah, it’s Oaken (subprimer) but it’s still indicative of the current rate environment.

#88 Conn Smythe on 05.11.18 at 7:26 am

#84 Howard on 05.11.18 at 3:38 am

“$700K for a boarded-up shack in Leslieville!”

Your post should read, “$700k for a lot in Leslieville. It is a given that the shack is going to be bulldozed…”

#89 Howard on 05.11.18 at 7:27 am

#57 conan on 05.10.18 at 9:30 pm

“That’s literally what every conservative/Republican ever does.”

Don’t forget they cut budgets while drinking a cases of beer. Always the same, save a million that ends up costing the next government 10 million.

It’s a joke when they claim to be stewards of the economy.

—————————————–

Harper paid down $40 billion of our debt in 2006/07, before the GFC hit. I guess he was to blame for Lehman Bros?

#90 Conn Smythe on 05.11.18 at 7:37 am

8 Conn Smythe on 05.10.18 at 2:41 pm
#174 Natrx

“Bought 12+ years ago. Mortgage now is about $300K, with basement rental income of $700/month. Was that a ‘dumb’ move?”

What did you pay, what is it worth? Subtract and see if you are happy with the answer…

Wrong answer. Subtract the total ownership costs and what the equity might have earned in other investment vehicle, less rental equivalent, from the difference between acquisition price and market value. – Garth

Yes, I agree my explanation was not complete yet it is not completely wrong. Ownership costs depend on what his mortgage was and the other costs of owning a home versus the rental costs he would have paid. Once that is out of the way and determined then one would have to compare the invested funds total appreciation which are taxable versus the non taxable capital gains on the home. Now you can make the final decision…

#91 Conn Smythe on 05.11.18 at 7:38 am

My bad, I forgot to add in the $700 a month in rent that NATRX was receiving…

#92 Drug Ford on 05.11.18 at 7:38 am

When I’m elected Premier, the efficiencies that I will find will make you so high, you’ll think you were one of my customers!

#Hashish

#93 NYCer on 05.11.18 at 8:01 am

I know this is just optics or small numbers but I read that majority of mortgage holders are renewing in 2018.

But do we have stats on WHEN they renew?

Would some of them renew early to beat 2018? How many would be renewing in Q1 vs Q4 etc?

#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.18 at 8:16 am

@#85 Myra Andrews
Listings about to pop 11,000 as sales drop…
The perfect storm.
20,000 by Sept?

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.11.18 at 8:30 am

@#74 Robbie

It seems as if ALL “Pro D” days are on a Friday or a Monday…longweekend or not.

And the endless, monthly “Professional Developement” days seem a tad excessive dont you think?
Skills training/upgrading EVERY month? Seriously?
What was the 5 years of University for?
To learn all the different, endlessly increasing, politically correct, gender specific terms foisted upon an overloaded public?
I’ve yet to think of another skill other than a doctor, policeman or firemen that requires skills training on an ongoing basis.
And while those professions may be required to prove their treatment, gun range, fitness skills are proficient…even they dont do it every month.

The 2 month Summer break, 2 week Christmas break and the 2 week Spring break are a nice perk as well.
One would think a few ‘Pro D days could be inserted in a few of those “kid free” days?
Just a thought from an overtaxed taxpayer frustrated at seeing and hearing the endless bleating from the Teachers union reps about how hard they have it every time its contract renewal time.

Hows retirement?

#96 Proof ? on 05.11.18 at 8:31 am

to comment #16 Who is the fool

Wait a few months and then look in the mirror.

Commenters like this really make me laugh.
After a 16 year run up in prices predicated on “perfect storm” conditions, they think that it is the norm and that an economy can progress with housing prices detached from economic reality.

You get some real beauties on this blog, Mr. Turner.

#97 TurnerNation on 05.11.18 at 8:35 am

In today’s photo: Bitcoin

In other news Enbridge Redemption for the widows, orphans and coupon clipping set.

#98 TurnerNation on 05.11.18 at 8:37 am

#60 MF he spent most of his time lavishing a tiny country on the other side of the world, starts with ‘I’.
You know it? You better.

#99 Proof ? on 05.11.18 at 8:37 am

to comment # 18 MF

Until it doesn’t.

Obviously, you have yet to experience the times when conditions change and prices reverse. Like it appears to be doing right in front of your eyes now.

If you are so sure about your observations / thesis, then why not extend yourself financially and buy ?

#100 Proof ? on 05.11.18 at 8:46 am

DOM is very important !

John Pasalis from Realosophy has just published a graph on DOM (Days On Market).

It adds up ALL of the time periods the house was PREVIOUSLY listed before it sold including the time it took to sell in its latest listing period.

Very, very enlightening.

#101 Gravy Train on 05.11.18 at 8:49 am

#83 jane24 on 05.11.18 at 1:58 am
“Morning Grath …” Nice!

“First point is that carbon taxes in Canada are just a tax grab.” You do know that carbon taxes are revenue neutral, don’t you? Does revenue neutrality also need to be explained to you? Didn’t you once say that you’re a former teacher? I shudder to think! :)

#102 Halifax Fish Fry on 05.11.18 at 9:10 am

Garth, you’re always a ray of sunshine, my morning pick me up when I’m feeling blue. I think I’m going to start investing in funeral plots as my real estate fix or go back to plan B – win the lottery. Oh yeah, Chase the Ace is on tonight Garth, now that you’re one of us :)

#103 soost on 05.11.18 at 9:34 am

On the topic of “starter homes” – I am personally renting to avoid one b/c the transaction costs and transfer taxes in the GTA are so prohibitive that I’d prefer equity to sunk costs. Not sure how long I can drag this out but TRYING!

#104 Robert Stann on 05.11.18 at 9:39 am

I’m one of those who’s mortgage is up for renewal in 2018.

Walked in to CIBC yesterday to meet with a mortgage rep. An hour later I was approved on the spot for a 5 year fixed 3.19% mortgage. They’re holding it for me for 120 days.

I’ve had similar experience with Scotia (CIBC rate is slightly better). Looking to get the hell out of TD – terrible customer service.

Point is, this stress test seems to be a non-issue for me – is this true for most others as well? I make $120k/year, wife makes $100k/year. I think that’s pretty standard for a DINK professional working couple in Toronto. Not sure how much of an impact this much-maligned stress test will have on markets with good jobs/reasonably high incomes – i.e. YVR and YYZ.

If you can handle payments at 5.34% within debt-service ratios, you’re approved. If not, too bad. (BTW, not everyone has a household income of $220,000.)- Garth

#105 Smoking Man on 05.11.18 at 9:58 am

Trump on why we need a space force.
“Fake news , they know, they understand”
https://youtu.be/6lrJhatw3K4

At another speach trump was making a case for a space force, and ended it with ” we need a space force for other reasons”.

What other reasons Donald.?

Just saying.. Disclosure is near, prepare.

#106 rental property math on 05.11.18 at 10:04 am

#64 georgist on 05.10.18 at 10:31 pm
> #16 Who is the fool on 05.10.18 at 6:17 pm

> I don’t know where any of the info In this blog is coming from – have you tried buying a condo in Toronto today ? Multiple offers within hours of listing

> Only fools are those who ever sell real estate or listen to this blog and don’t buy (even now)

Didn’t have to scroll down as far today to find a desperate landlord.

Good stuff. Keep ’em coming.

——————-
Desperate landlords? I wish some of my tenants would leave so I could obtain the skyrocketed market rent. Thanks Libs.. I wouldn’t even miss a month’s rent either. All I need is two days to clean and roll a couple walls and steam the carpet upstairs. Done.

#107 Penny Henny on 05.11.18 at 10:07 am

#40 Dolce Vita on 05.10.18 at 7:32 pm
#36 Penny Henny

Post your home value here in the next few days (as in comparable listings, not what you think it is worth).

Get back to us with its value in the 4th Qtr.

Then we can determine for certain if the following holds true:

“Prices in the core of 416 are still strong.”

//////////////////////////

I sold last year in May and moved to Welland. I was in a so so neighbourhood in Etobicoke, sold and got more house in Welland for 1/3 of the price.
I still follow prices in certain neighbourhoods though.

#108 TalkingPie on 05.11.18 at 10:10 am

#104 Robert Stann on 05.11.18 at 9:39 am
“I make $120k/year, wife makes $100k/year. I think that’s pretty standard for a DINK professional working couple in Toronto.”

********************************************

Is this a Toronto thing, where everyone imagines that everyone else in the city makes ridiculous money? I ask because my brother, who lives in Oakville, does exactly the same thing. At Christmas dinner one year he declared that anyone who makes less than $100k is a loser.

Per StatsCan, the median HOUSEHOLD income in Toronto was $78k in 2015 ($81k nationwide). Either the government doesn’t know how to do a survey, the haves and have-nots in Toronto are separated to the point that you don’t even cross paths with the common man, or you guys are vastly out of touch with what your neighbours are actually doing.

#109 For those about to flop... on 05.11.18 at 10:15 am

#72 Bby renter on 05.10.18 at 11:27 pm

Hey Flop,

I was just looking at houses in North Van. Here is what I can see:

1002 Clements Ave sold for $1,808,000 on March 14th

7813 18th Ave Bby sold for 1,445, 000 on March 17th

6008 6th St Bby sold for $2,203,000 on March 8th.

/////////////////

Thanks BR.

Clements.

Paid 2.0

Sold 1.8

Maybe 300k loss.Pink Snow

18th Ave

Paid 1.31

Sold 1.44

If we don’t go to excessive for opportunities lost these guys on paper might have made 40k or so.

Let’s just call this one Green Snow.

6008 6th st.
Paid 2.42

Sold 2.2

Probably close to a 350k loss,more if like the Lat one we hit them hard for opportunities lost but we never really know how much they spend on renovations/ staging and the like.Pink Snow

Just like the guy who writes these posts,they are only a rough guide…

M43BC

#110 Herb on 05.11.18 at 10:45 am

Statistics Canada reported Friday that goods-producing industries lost almost 16,000 jobs during the month, but the service sector added almost 15,000 to offset that.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-april-1.4658380

What’s wrong with this picture?

#111 Spectacle on 05.11.18 at 10:58 am

Supply demand graph….
I like the one of the guy selling bats on the street..

Supply And Demand Cartoons and Comics – funny pictures from …
cartoonstock.com

#112 Lisa on 05.11.18 at 11:02 am

Any word on Freedom First? I apologize if I missed something. I always got a chuckle out of that guy.

#113 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 11:04 am

#110 Herb on 05.11.18 at 10:45 am

Statistics Canada reported Friday that goods-producing industries lost almost 16,000 jobs during the month, but the service sector added almost 15,000 to offset that.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-april-1.4658380

What’s wrong with this picture?
___________________________

Same old. Trading in good jobs for bad, but it’s all good news at the Trudeau propaganda ministry.

Looks like the CBC has been told not to use the words “manufacturing jobs” anymore, and wage growth numbers can be posted as a positive indicator while forgetting to mention the minimum wage increases made law by government (not initiated by the economy).

Glad to see a possible early retirement in my future…

#114 Conn Smythe on 05.11.18 at 11:08 am

#108 Talking Pie

“I ask because my brother, who lives in Oakville, does exactly the same thing. At Christmas dinner one year he declared that anyone who makes less than $100k is a loser.”

What a wonderful sentiment to share at Christmas dinner. Did he lead the Christmas carols afterwards?

#115 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.11.18 at 11:12 am

@30 Nonplused:

I got a flyer in the mail with local paper the other day. The annual Home N’ Garden special. The flyer claims that trees, grass, and plants are good in reducing carbon. In fact, it claimed that one tree (no further definition) would consume enough carbon to offset the output of the average car for 17,700 km per year.

I have three yuge maples on my property along with several other smaller trees. In addition I have a half acre of lawn. Apparently lawns of 2500 square feet produce enough oxygen to support the average family of four for a year!

This is more than enough greenery to offset all of my family’s carbon producing activities. Do ya think Trudeau and Wynne will let me sell some carbon offsets? For the good of the planet, of course.

#116 Smoking Man on 05.11.18 at 11:13 am

Herb on 05.11.18 at 10:45 am
Statistics Canada reported Friday that goods-producing industries lost almost 16,000 jobs during the month, but the service sector added almost 15,000 to offset that.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-april-1.4658380

What’s wrong with this picture?
…….

It’s a perfect picture to the guy running canada at this point in time.

Gerold Butts is on record and doubling down he is all for de-industrialization. Give the earth back to the ducks.

His flaw, he doesn’t understand herdonomics or nature.
Life is a compitition, and if you suck, well you are going to get run over by train.

Just watch how Jun 7 plays out in Ontario.

#117 Spectacle on 05.11.18 at 11:15 am

#93 NYCer on 05.11.18 at 8:01 am
I know this is just optics or small numbers but I read that majority of mortgage holders are renewing in 2018.

But do we have stats on WHEN they renew?

Would some of them renew early to beat 2018? How many would be renewing in Q1 vs Q4 etc?
————————————–

ANSWER…..2018
(April used to be popular,even a bit of a Spectacle = Q1 until it ended )

#118 Calgary Rip Off on 05.11.18 at 11:20 am

The real problems are pride and greed.

Everyone wants to feel good about themselves and feel they are doing good. The real problem is the intentions of why people want to feel this way and evaluation of whether those feelings are long lasting.

Are you buying a house for logical reasons or just because of trends and what other people are doing? Why be a sheep?

Consequently many in the general public haven’t planned well. For those that have planned well good to remember that in 100 years it wont matter.

Best to start evaluating intentions of decisions. Why you are doing what you are doing. If the whys are for the right reasons you can stand assured that you are building something that lasts.

#119 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 11:33 am

#101 Gravy Train on 05.11.18 at 8:49 am
#83 jane24 on 05.11.18 at 1:58 am
“Morning Grath …” Nice!

“First point is that carbon taxes in Canada are just a tax grab.” You do know that carbon taxes are revenue neutral, don’t you? Does revenue neutrality also need to be explained to you? Didn’t you once say that you’re a former teacher? I shudder to think! :)
_____

Carbon taxes in Canada do not have an explicit purpose. Ottawa allows compliant Provinces to use the revenue as they see fit. There is no standard goal, or established cost for any action or mandate for which the Carbon Tax was created to cover the cost.

In other words – it’s a cash grab just like Jane24 said.

If it is “revenue neutral” as you say – please link to the initiative for which the CT was created to finance – and the costs thereof.

In Ontario, the last “revenue neutral” program the Libs initiated was the E-Test for vehicles. After a decade or more running the program it was discovered… that they were making millions off of it.

#120 Smoking Man on 05.11.18 at 11:54 am

Canada is Atlas Shrugged.

#121 Sucks to be you! on 05.11.18 at 11:57 am

Toronto Home sold 370K over-asking.

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2018/05/233-castlefield-evenue/

Just because it was priced ridiculously low in the Yonge and Lawrence area for 795K. I know a house was sold $3 million over-asking last year because it was price at $1.

#122 Howard on 05.11.18 at 12:06 pm

#108 TalkingPie on 05.11.18 at 10:10 am

#104 Robert Stann on 05.11.18 at 9:39 am
“I make $120k/year, wife makes $100k/year. I think that’s pretty standard for a DINK professional working couple in Toronto.”

********************************************

Is this a Toronto thing, where everyone imagines that everyone else in the city makes ridiculous money? I ask because my brother, who lives in Oakville, does exactly the same thing. At Christmas dinner one year he declared that anyone who makes less than $100k is a loser.

Per StatsCan, the median HOUSEHOLD income in Toronto was $78k in 2015 ($81k nationwide). Either the government doesn’t know how to do a survey, the haves and have-nots in Toronto are separated to the point that you don’t even cross paths with the common man, or you guys are vastly out of touch with what your neighbours are actually doing.

————————————–

I think the key word in his post is “professional”.

He’s referring to people with graduate degrees or certifications – doctors, lawyers, MBAs, accountants. May also refer to those without the above but who are in managerial/director-level roles.

For that group, certainly once above the age of 35/40, $100K would be pretty average in Toronto.

#123 Robert Stann on 05.11.18 at 12:15 pm

BTW, not everyone has a household income of $220,000 – Garth

Agreed – and point well taken. I’m just wondering if those that do earn an upper-middle income along with those who already own property and have sufficient equity built up will be a large enough buying-base to keep prices strong in certain markets. Thoughts?

#124 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 12:25 pm

Just noticed gas jumped to 1.35 in town.

Going to be an interesting summer if Oil keeps climbing and the Loonie languishes/falls.

#125 SilverSon on 05.11.18 at 12:38 pm

#104 Robert Stann on 05.11.18 at 9:39 am

The view must be nice from your ivory tower. Congratulations, you have high income and choices for your mortgage. Now go down to the Princess Margaret oncology clinic and tell a bunch of patients how cancer is a “non-issue for you”.

I suspect you didn’t mean to cause harm with your comment, but please think before you post. The stress test is a significant issue for many and will be the source of complete financial ruin for some. I believe a little compassion is in order.

#126 Frances on 05.11.18 at 12:39 pm

@rental property math, my landlord just sold the condo I was renting. It took two weeks to sell and sold for 15k less than asking. Out of 10 showings they received just one offer, a nice older gentleman who was worried about the view, the sound of the fan, the size etc. My prediction is that he will regret his purchase and it will be back on the market in less than one year, for an even lower price.

#127 James on 05.11.18 at 12:50 pm

#27 Smoking Man on 05.10.18 at 6:41 pm

Ha, the pic was me last Saturday night.
Never again.
………………………………………………………..
Until tonight at your local casino…………..
Cheers!

#128 Mattl on 05.11.18 at 12:52 pm

While I expect interest rates to rise, its material to
note that money is still incredibly cheap. Bank of Canada benchmark may be 5+ but I am 20 bps under 3 on mine. And BMO just posted a 5 year under 3.

#129 Steven Rowlandson on 05.11.18 at 12:53 pm

“As for wannabe buyers who can’t pass the test, three choices. (a) Move and buy a perfectly fine house where real estate costs less and the locals have no idea what FOMO means. Mom will understand. Really. (b) Buy a lesser property. (There actually used to be things called ‘starter homes.’) or, (c) rent.”

All three choices are above most peoples pay grades.
Employers are not made of money and neither are their employees.

#130 James on 05.11.18 at 12:53 pm

Consequences are funny things. Donald Trump and an increasingly hawkish foreign policy team tore up the landmark nuclear agreement with Iran this week, as Trump’s anti-globalist support base back home cheered the move. Yet among the first victims of the decision is not Iran’s hardliners, nor even Iran’s economy.
It was instead the American aerospace firm Boeing that lost; Washington has said it will now revoke Boeing’s licence to sell $20 billion US of aircraft to Iran.
Hmmm, smart move Donald.

#131 Ian on 05.11.18 at 12:53 pm

#113 IHCTD9

That’s not the only thing the CBC has been told to do by the Liberals.

The also asked for the illegal border crossings from the US to be described as ‘irregular’. Every story on this the word ‘irregular’ is used.

Despite Scheer asking the CBC to refer to his opposition members as a shadow cabinet, in UK tradition, the CBC keeps calling them ‘critics’. The Liberals hate the UK and any association with it.

First step after winning in 2019 is to put a huge portrait of the Queen in the hallway that has the most Liberal MPs. That would be awesome.

#132 James on 05.11.18 at 1:02 pm

#30 Nonplused on 05.10.18 at 6:45 pm

And don’t forget the new carbon taxes which Turdeau intends to implement nation wide and which Nutely has already implemented. I’m not sure what the environment barbie has in mind for how this will work, will it be a carbon tax on a carbon tax sort of how federal and provincial income taxes work, or will there be a federal discount if you already pay provincial, or will it be harmonized like the HST? Either way it will take thousand’s of dollars a year out of a family of 4’s take home pay. So that’s going to squeeze what people can pay for a house even further (as well as everything else).

It’s super stupid, they could have accomplished the exact same thing by just doubling the HST only with a lot less paperwork. Calling it a “carbon tax” is pure evil virtue signalling. It is a tax on everything, including the power you need to charge your iPhone. So is the HST, but why not just double that? It would have the same effect on people’s spending. Sure, placing it on carbon might be good for the renewables industry, but it’s going to be years and years before that makes a sizable difference in the energy mix.

I can prove it’s just a tax grab by answering 3 simple questions:

“Will the carbon tax have a meaningful impact on the consumption of carbon fuels in Canada?” (The answer is no in the short term without crashing the economy, little effect in the medium term and maybe a bit of an effect in the long term but probably not much over what would have happened anyway. They were building windmills and LED bulbs before the carbon tax.)

“Even if it does reduce the consumption of carbon fuels in Canada, will that have a meaningful impact on global carbon emissions?” (The answer is no, Canada is a tiny country and even though per capita consumption is high because we’re rich and it’s freakin’ cold in the winter our emissions account for about 3% of the world total.)

“Even if Canada’s contribution to global warming is relatively small, can we set an example for other countries to follow and thus encourage larger countries to also enact carbon taxes and reduce consumption?” The answer to this one is a resounding “no”, China and the US will never have a carbon tax. Maybe in California but no where else. Nor will Russia, India, or any of the developing world. And China has actual real economists who worry about money instead of politics and they know that economic activity and energy consumption are closely tied together. They think what we are doing is silly.

So, since we can conclude that the carbon tax will have little to no effect on energy consumption in Canada, Canada can have little to no effect on the overall world wide consumption of carbon fuels, and even if Canada attempts to lead the world at great expense to it’s own people the world will not follow, we can safely assume it is just a tax grab wrapped up in a bunch of moral virtue signalling.

But it will have a significant effect on the Canadian economy as even more of your hard earned and already taxed 4 times money heads into the black hole of economics known as government.

Is global warming real? Probably. Will carbon taxes in Canada stop it? Hardly. Is it a big deal? I don’t know but you can still get a 40 mortgage in Florida so the banks don’t seem to think so.
……………………………………………………………….
Well said! Turdeau wants to be know as the great prodigious purveyor of all things amazingly injudicious.

#133 jess on 05.11.18 at 1:06 pm

The paper, by  You Suk Kim, Steven M. Laufer, and Karen M. Pence  of the  Federal Reserve Board and Richard Stanton and Nancy E. Wallace  of  the  University of California at Berkeley, argues that liquidity risk associated with the nonbank mortgage sector was  also a key driver of the crisis—and those same vulnerabilities are not only still present, but pose an even greater risk to the system  today  because the nonbank sector is an even larger part of the market.

“Nonbank mortgage originators and servicers—i.e.  independent  mortgage companies that are not subsidiaries of a bank or a bank holding company—are  subject to far greater liquidity risks  but  are  less  regulated than bank-lenders and servicers.  As of 2016, non-bank financial institutions originated close to  50 percent of  all  mortgages  and 75 percent of  mortgages with explicit government backing.”

https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/liquidity-crises-in-the-mortgage-market/

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brookings-now/2018/03/08/the-mortgage-market-risk-no-ones-talking-about-plus-a-proposal-to-redesign-the-system/

#134 Sonny on 05.11.18 at 1:08 pm

See Ya! Local Millennials Are Abandoning Toronto And Vancouver

#135 CJBob on 05.11.18 at 1:17 pm

#113 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 11:04 am
________________________
Same old. Trading in good jobs for bad, but it’s all good news at the Trudeau propaganda ministry.
_______________________
The long term trend to service jobs vs. manufacturing jobs has been going on for many decades. The jobs report shows an increase in full time work and a drop in part time work? How is this a bad thing?

The following quote from BNN (does T2 pay them as well?)

“Don’t let the headline number fool you, this really wasn’t that bad of a report,” Brian DePratto, senior economist with TD Economics, wrote in a note to clients. “Full-time employment rose again, and the employee vs self-employment mix was encouraging. Wage growth was solid.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-unexpectedly-lost-1-100-jobs-in-april-amid-drop-in-part-time-work-1.1075524

Don’t get me wrong there is plenty to criticize with the current federal gov’t, but reacting to everything with the same answer is really tiresome.

#136 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 1:24 pm

#131 Ian on 05.11.18 at 12:53 pm
___

The CBC should just be put out of its bloody misery. At best, they sell irritation. They absolutely pander to whatever government happens to be running the show, which undermines everything they do.

Someday maybe – but it will (again), probably take a SHTF event to allow government to finally put this useless organization down for good.

#137 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 1:46 pm

#113 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 11:04 am
________________________
Same old. Trading in good jobs for bad, but it’s all good news at the Trudeau propaganda ministry.
_______________________
The long term trend to service jobs vs. manufacturing jobs has been going on for many decades.
_______

Yes, and I look at the situation from a decades long perspective – I’ve had a front row seat.

From this perspective, good jobs are leaving along with the industry that gave rise to them. Equivalent work has not appeared on the scene to cover the losses. These “Service” jobs that have surfaced as a thing to talk about – are crap. So is working contracts (ie. “self employment”). Debt pays the bills for a lot of Canadians today.

Until something new comes along – I plan to keep centering my opinion around the facts as they actually are – no matter who is running the show. Nothing changes at the IHCTD9 compound if Scheer gets in and things still suck.

#138 gmac2412 on 05.11.18 at 1:50 pm

#121 Sucks to be you! on 05.11.18 at 11:57 am
Toronto Home sold 370K over-asking.

https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2018/05/233-castlefield-evenue/

Just because it was priced ridiculously low in the Yonge and Lawrence area for 795K. I know a house was sold $3 million over-asking last year because it was price at $1.

I live on this street. Another almost identical house sold for $1.3m last year, so that should show which way the market is trending. It is a nice enough house for sure, great location close to Yonge/Eglinton.

As for BlogTO, clearly they have no concept of the fact that a listing agent would underprice the property in order to create interest!!

#139 ShawnG in TO on 05.11.18 at 2:04 pm

kevin o’leary’s free dinner ad is everywhere. what is he up to this time?

#140 CJBob on 05.11.18 at 2:11 pm

#136 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 1:24 pm
___
They absolutely pander to whatever government happens to be running the show….
__________
Wow is this ever the opposite of reality. Harper HATED the CBC and the feeling was mutual.

Swing and a miss at a ball right down the middle.

#141 MF on 05.11.18 at 2:38 pm

98 TurnerNation on 05.11.18 at 8:37 am

Was a good move. More people should go and see it’s beauty. See All it’s accomplishments given the odds.

And see how the media is usually 100% biased and prejudiced.

MF

#142 Stan Brooks on 05.11.18 at 2:46 pm

#136 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 1:24 pm

CBC is the perfect complement to and representation of the confused, needy, unsure, insecure, sensitive, unable to think by himself, wanna be successful/proud average Canadian that tells him how great he/the average Canadian/ is doing and why he should be happy.

CBC is here to stay, people (who never really grew up) here want to be happy and be attended to, reality is too harsh to be faced.

#143 Gravy Train on 05.11.18 at 2:48 pm

#120 Smoking Man on 05.11.18 at 11:54 am
“Canada is Atlas Shrugged.”

Smokey, does this mean you’ve read a book? Ayn Rand’s fourth and final novel, in particular? Her magnum opus!

You surprise me each and every day, Smokey! There may be hope for you yet!

Now, tell us all your opinion of her philosophy of Objectivism in 100 words or less—or should I say fewer? :)

#144 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 2:55 pm

#140 CJBob on 05.11.18 at 2:11 pm
#136 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 1:24 pm
___
They absolutely pander to whatever government happens to be running the show….
__________

Wow is this ever the opposite of reality.
_____

Perhaps to someone who’s partisanship calls the shots.

When Harper got in, the CBC rhetoric ABSOLUTELY softened to the Cons. Harper was one of the most hardline Cons to hit Ottawa in decades. He should have got the same treatment Trump is getting now from just about the entire US MSM, but he didn’t. Not even close.

Now that Trudeau is in, they play his music. The CBC doesn’t bite the hand that feeds. Well.. no harder than absolutely necessary.

What Harper or Trudeau themselves think of the CBC is irrelevant.

Don’t get me confused as a political fanboi, I’m miles past that – even if you do hear me freely (and regularly) admit that Trudeau is a colossal airhead and the single worst PM this country has ever had by 500 billion miles. If you’ve read any of my tripe on this blog, you already know I’m taking matters into my own hands. This won’t change if Scheer and/or Ford get in and do not produce results.

FWIW, I bashed Patrick Brown on the regular prior to his me-too political take-down. I’m also going to vote for Wynne (“strategically”).

#145 jess on 05.11.18 at 3:05 pm

FCC makes $120M robocall fine for Florida man official

The agency is cracking down on illegal calls, but at least one official says it should do more.

The agency has said he led “one of the largest — and most dangerous — illegal robocalling campaigns that the commission has ever investigated.”

#146 Mike in Edm on 05.11.18 at 3:06 pm

#115 Bytor the Snow Dog on 05.11.18 at 11:12 am
@30 Nonplused:

This is more than enough greenery to offset all of my family’s carbon producing activities. Do ya think Trudeau and Wynne will let me sell some carbon offsets? For the good of the planet, of course.
***************************************
Doubtful! Considering Canada as a whole has enough trees to offset our populations carbon footprint by about 5-8 fold, no politicians seem to care. It’s too bad considering as a nation we’ve chosen to protect many of those forests instead of clear cutting them like in many other parts of the world in the name of industry. You’d think we should be rewarded and applauded for that, but then how would the politicians make any money (tax) off us for that?!

#147 jess on 05.11.18 at 3:08 pm

of course he plead the fifth

For Immediate Release
FCC ISSUES $120 MILLION FINE FOR SPOOFED ROBOCALLS
Agency Concludes Investigation into Adrian Abramovich’s Massive ‘Neighbor
Spoofing’ Telemarketing Operation with Largest FCC Forfeiture Ever

WASHINGTON, May 10, 2018—The Federal Communications Commission today fined
Adrian Abramovich $120 million for malicious spoofing that was part of his massive
robocalling operation aimed at selling timeshares and other travel packages. The caller ID
spoofing operation made almost 100 million spoofed robocalls over three months. The Truth
in Caller ID Act prohibits callers from deliberately falsifying caller ID information with the
intent to harm or defraud consumers or unlawfully obtain something of value

#148 Myra Andrews on 05.11.18 at 3:12 pm

In over two months not a single day of over 200 sales

May 10 New 229 Sold 126 TI 10957
May 9 New 309 Sold 172 TI 10914
May 8 New 318 Sold 117 TI 10835
May 7 New 389 Sold 131 TI 10697

May 4 New 191 Sold 110 TI 10540
May 3 New 213 Sold 103 TI 10503
May 2 New 268 Sold 146 TI 10481
May 1 New 363 Sold 134 TI 10420
Apr 30 New 375 Sold 163 TI 10459

April 27 New 147 Sold 89 TI 10347
April 26 New 208 Sold 161 TI 10,332
April 25 New 239 Sold 123 TI 10,345
April 24 New 323 Sold 136 TI 10,299
April 23 New 385 Sold 145 TI 10,180

April 20 no post from Paul
April 19 New 211 Sold 133 TI 10,006
April 18 New 266 Sold 128 TI 9989
April 17 New 297 Sold 120 TI 9898
April 16 New 377 Sold 191 TI 9799

April 13 New 152 Sold 137 TI 9727
April 12 New 199 Sold 112 TI 9748
April 11 New 248 Sold 101 TI 9709
April 10 no post from Paul
April 9 New 382 Sold 117 TI 9450

April 6 no post from Paul
April 5 New 268 Sold 164 TI 9264
April 4 New 324 Sold 154 TI 9204
April 3 New 538 Sold 131 TI 9104

Mar 26-29 New 793 Sold 455 TI: 9032 (summary only)

March 23 New 123 Sold 110 TI: 8916
March 22 New 139 Sold 107 TI: 8944
March 21 New 193 Sold 138 TI: 8948
March 20 New 279 Sold 142 TI: 8931
March 19 New 307 Sold 120 TI: 8862

March 16 New 158 Sold 117 TI: 8743
March 15 New 154 Sold 127 TI: 8737
March 14 New 231 Sold 140 TI: 8749
March 13 New 277 Sold 159 TI: 8688
March 12 New 327 Sold 139 TI: 8642

March 9 New 139 Sold 91 TI: 8510
March 8 New 196 Sold 118 TI: 8496
March 7 New 204 Sold 99 TI: 8442
March 6 New 246 Sold 130 TI: 8372
March 5 New 316 Sold 104 TI: 8344

#149 Stan Brooks on 05.11.18 at 3:21 pm

#120 Smoking Man on 05.11.18 at 11:54 am
“Canada is Atlas Shrugged.”

Canada is not Atlas shrugged.

Atlas shrugged is the average middle class Canadian schmuck who is expected to perform wonders while living frugally in order to serve the others – the unionized parasites, government workers, baby boomers, millennials.

And who will never retire.

Whole life in exchange of cardboard particles home or glass condo. What a fulfilling life.

#150 Gravy Train on 05.11.18 at 3:36 pm

#119 IHCTD9 on 05.11.18 at 11:33 am
“If it is ‘revenue neutral’ as you say – please link to the initiative for which the CT was created to finance – and the costs thereof.”

Does this help you? “Revenue neutrality remains the core principle of B.C.’s carbon tax. The tax can increase only if it remains revenue-neutral and every dollar is returned to citizens in the form of tax relief.” — FACTSHEET: B.C.’s Climate Leadership (Friday, March 31, 2017 10:25 AM)
https://news.gov.bc.ca/factsheets/bcs-climate-leadership

#151 Destructive Spillover on 05.11.18 at 3:44 pm

And the much anticipated boomer downsizing has apparently begun.

http://vancouversun.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/the-great-baby-boomer-exodus-from-the-family-home-is-finally-under-way-and-its-driving-luxury-condo-prices-higher/wcm/23be9310-f7d8-45a6-bc74-77f73c2d680a

Of courses, this article ignores the fact that boomers are spreading to all secondary cities surrounding the bigger ones, cashing out, and bidding up houses in smaller communities.

After all, when you sell your Vancouver shack for 3 million to non-resident or reident buyers, why not spend an extra 50 or 100k on a house in a surrounding community to make sure you get it.

They are still buying houses and creating the same price – local income disjuncture as they did in the major urban centers. So the affordability crisis spreads further across provinces.

Contrary to layman reports, April in South Vancouver Island was still a relatively hot month. One quarter of houses sold over asking in Victoria; inventory remains slightly above last year; and quality homes are selling in a day for over asking. And this comes post-B20 implementation when all the pre-approvals have expired…and we are supposed to see the effect of wiping out 20% of buyers.

After they decimated key urban markets, they are now destroying secondary markets. Gee, what a truly helpful generation.

I don’t think those heralding B20 as the demise of the market factored in the unprecedented boomer segment and its ability to manipulate the market by virture of having large sums of equity capital. Their spread of capital is now in its second destructive phase.

Seems those patient ones on the sidelines will be renting a lot longer in the secondary markets, hoping for a break in several years time.

#152 oncebittwiceshy on 05.11.18 at 5:26 pm

Destructive Spillover: ”
Of courses, this article ignores the fact that boomers are spreading to all secondary cities surrounding the bigger ones, cashing out, and bidding up houses in smaller communities.”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

The article seems to ignore alot, such as those boomers having a tough time finding buyers. Lol

Try using the "Chinese" buying up B.C. arguement again. Wow.

http://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/coolest-april-for-metro-vancouver-home-sales-in-17-years-1.23289125

#153 Nonplused on 05.11.18 at 7:20 pm

#115 Bytor the Snow Dog

As others have pointed out Canada has a lot of trees besides the 3 measly ones you have. I have probably 40 good size trees on my property (never counted them, but there are a lot) but no I will not get a tax credit for that.

However in the city if you want to cut one down there is now a $4,000 fee because they are of course environmentally important.

Canada is definitely guilty of clear cutting in the past, but for some time now the cut forests have to be replanted. Sure it takes 20 years for a replanted forest to be the carbon consuming behemoth it once was, but it comes back eventually.

CO2 is plant food. Without CO2 in the air all plants would die which means all life on the planet would die. This is never discussed in the debate. Instead CO2 is described as a poisonous pollutant. This is absolute balderdash, there must be CO2 in the air, the only question is how much and how fast it can increase.

And you and the other commenters are right, Canada is a net carbon sink because of all the forests and farmland too.

In years past carbon based fuels were responsible for a lot of nasty pollutants like SO2, NO, NO2, lead, etc. But that’s mostly been cleaned up. To throw CO2 in with that mix of nasties is just silly. It’s plant food! That’s how it got to be oil in the first place! Plants absorbed the CO2 and then got buried. Coal is trees folks! Highly polluted trees due to being buried, but trees none the less.

#154 Ace Goodheart on 05.11.18 at 9:10 pm

If you want to be Atlas and shrug It’s easy. Most of the world consists of various indigenous groups living underneath Atlases who have shrugged. Pick a country. If you live in North America or Western Europe you live in the “hive” so to speak of wanna be Atlases, most of whom will never reach their potential.

Go travel a bit and you’ll see.

We’re a parasite species living on top of other species.

The hardest part about shrugging is getting the beer imported afterwards.

Remember 66.67 degrees for mash in. In case the shipment is late….

#155 Susan Crawford on 05.12.18 at 5:54 pm

I really don’t like these new rules, but I think we need them to stop people from buying houses they might not afford!