Give it up

In case you missed it, the US created another whack of jobs last month. The unemployment rate is just 3.9% – the first time that’s happened in 18 years. Even better, more people are working but not demanding more money (good little slaves). Wage gains are tepid. Stocks love that. They went up 400 points Friday.

What it means: more economic growth, not a ton of inflation, steady business conditions, fat profits, better markets. And more interest rate increases. The stage is now set for another Fed jump in June and then one more (at least by the end of the year). That’ll make seven in about 18 months. So much for those geniuses who wander the steerage section of this blog telling you the cost of money will never rise. It did. It is. It continues. Never, ever believe what you read on the Internet.

– Bloomberg

Scotiabank economists pointed out Friday afternoon the odds are rising for our guys to jack the Bank of Canada rate again in June. Inevitably, it will drift higher. This happens at the same time real estate prices are sliding (see the last two posts), inflation is gathering, household debt’s at a screaming high and the toughest mortgage rules in decades have come into force.

The US economy is expanding, commodity prices increasing and global growth is surging towards the 4% mark. This is all great if you have an intelligent financial portfolio. It sucks large if you need to renew your mortgage this year or are a newbie trying to qualify for one. The shift from real assets to financial ones is definitely on. Your portfolio should have made you about 20% in the last two years. Your house is probably losing money. More of that to come.

Almost all of the big banks have now jumped their mortgage rates, reflecting the increased cost of money in the bond market. Rates in general are rising – from HISA to brain-dead GICs, to the amount charged on lines of credit, credit cards plus home loans. TD was the most aggressive some days ago, adding almost a half-point to its posted five-year mortgage. One consequence of that is a bigger penalty to pay for breaking a mortgage contract early, since it’s the posted rate, not the street one, which is used to calculate that penalty.

Another bummer is that every time the Big Five increase the cost of mortgages, existing borrowers get a little more trapped. That’s happening right now.

Chartered bank rates determine the Bank of Canada’s mortgage qualifying rate, also known as the stress test rate. It’s moving up from 5.14% to 5.34%. Yup, that makes it even harder for first-time buyers to qualify to borrow money and reduces the amount of credit they receive, but it also imprisons existing borrowers. You can’t go shopping for a new mortgage and a better deal any more without having to pass the stress test – no matter how little you wish to borrow, how great your credit score is or how much equity you have in your house.

Meanwhile, the stress test is spreading. Major credit unions are moving to adopt it – simply because with extreme household debt and unsustainable real estate values everyone’s scrambling to contain risk. Remember that every time the mortgage qualifying rate goes up a little (like this time) the amount of money people can borrow goes down.

This is a big deal. The reverse of what you grew to expect over the last decade. Falling rates made money cheaper, so people could borrow more of it – and houses rose wildly in value. Now rising rates mean borrowers can service a smaller debt on the same income. No surprise then that a detached house in Toronto costs 14% less than it did twelve months ago.

Anyway, stop fighting it. We’re on the rate escalator. Blame Trump, if you want. The central bankers. Wall Street. T2. Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk or the Fakebook guy. No matter. Inevitable. If your personal balance sheet shows too much real estate, big debt and few liquid assets, this is the moment.

125 comments ↓

#1 SEAN on 05.04.18 at 4:27 pm

FINALLY FIRST!

#2 TurnerNation on 05.04.18 at 4:29 pm

Sign of the times? GoEasy GSY.TO latest results suggest a helliva business in sub prime personal lending.

#3 A J on 05.04.18 at 4:38 pm

Just e-mailed this to Garth, but you all should check out this article –

“How to lose big money in Toronto real estate”

“These Toronto buyers lost hundreds of thousands within months”

http://www.moneysense.ca/spend/real-estate/how-to-lose-big-money-in-toronto-real-estate/

#4 Bri UK on 05.04.18 at 4:39 pm

What happened to today’s Canada job report @ 1230 GMT??

#5 Manny on 05.04.18 at 4:43 pm

I remember Garth making a comment that gov’t knows the housing slow down is coming and are already preparing to balance the effects.
BC BIDS govt RFP website went from 450 to 500 request for proposals for a decade to this past year 800 to 850.

https://www.bcbid.gov.bc.ca/open.dll/welcome?language=En

Silent job creation…shhhhh

#6 Reynolds531 on 05.04.18 at 4:43 pm

I can already buy a GIC at a rate higher than my mortgage rate, for a shorter term.

Humble brag for 1700 more days!

#7 Smartalox on 05.04.18 at 4:56 pm

Another day, another change in NDP Real Estate Tax policies. They really ARE making it up as they go:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bc-rules-out-changes-to-tax-on-high-value-homes-amid-escalating/

Well, at least this is a step in the ‘right’ direction.

I suspect that the leader of the Green Party, Andrew ‘Dream’ Weaver – member of the legislature for Oak Bay (home to more $10M-plus oceanfront properties than anywhere else in BC), threatened to pull his support from the NDP, once he was called on the carpet by his constituents.

#8 BobC on 05.04.18 at 5:21 pm

“I freed a thousand slaves I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves.”
– Harriet Tubman

#9 renter in Surrey on 05.04.18 at 5:25 pm

wake me up when SFH in Frase Valley are $300K – $400K
otherwise all those changes are immaterial

“half-point jump in mortgage rate”, you need electronic microscope to see it

#10 Happy Housing Crash Everyone! on 05.04.18 at 5:25 pm

UPPA UPPA UPPA interest rates will go. The house price go down down down down. Many go bankrupt and lose it all. Many SHYSTERS cry cry cry since they have no money but debts. SHYSTERS no even pay taxes those bums. Happy Housing Crash Everyone! :-)

#11 Smartalox on 05.04.18 at 5:37 pm

Every Friday afternoon I scan the headlines to see who is ‘taking out the trash, that is, publishing a potentially unpopular story right before the weekend in the hope those affected won’t notice, or that any furor will have blown over by Monday morning.

Here’s one of those cases:

http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/sellers-buyers-and-developers-liable-for-presale-condo-related-taxes

Some illuminating tidbits here:
– condo pre-sales contracts have never been subject to reporting procedures intended to combat money-laundering and tax evasion. Instead, all that reporting only occurs AFTER the condo is built and the title is registered. I feel sorry for the idiots who decided to launder their ill-gotten millions through BC’s casinos, and then into detached houses on Vancouver’s west side – all that heavy lifting! But I suspect that the condo insiders were well-financed as well.

– Condo builders can REFUSE (or charge a small fee) to permit early buyers to sell condo assignments. Fees apparently have gone up from 1.5% to 25% of the assignment value now that the CRA has been asking for names of 1st buyers and condo insiders.

– Did you know that the BC foreign buyer tax doesn’t apply to pre-sales and the sale of assignments? I didn’t. Again, the tax is only payable when the condo is complete and the title is registered. Pre-sales and assignment sales also don’t appear in real estate board statistics, prior to title.

– If you were a local, and bought a condo assignment from a non-local, you were supposed to ‘hold back’ 25% of the price paid to the seller to cover the tax owed by the seller, coming from the sale. If you don’t, the CRA holds YOU (the local buyer) responsible! That’s because, as a local, you’re easier for the CRA to nab for non-payment, compared to someone who may have gone back to a country where Canada doesn’t even have a diplomatic presence.

– It seems to me that those condo pre-sale lineups, composed of eager foreigners, might have had another purpose after all. Of course those were the small-timers; the big fish had already bought the best of the developers’ stock, before the doors even opened!

#12 Danny on 05.04.18 at 5:40 pm

The RE market is unfolding as it should have in the spring of 2017…..when the morons then drove an already overvalued real estate market through the rafters.

That’s called greed…..sometimes people are their own worst enemies…..thinking only of “Greatness “…instead of careful consideration of a non sustainable trend……that is moving too fast too soon.

There will always be people out there playing the suckers…..just liking “Don The First ” in the White House….a real estate liar…..now living off the tax payer.

His family is happy…..they never made so much money selling real estate because of their power to influence…..government policies…..and more secret deals.

Nepotism!….should be a law against it.

#13 Pecs Rockhard on 05.04.18 at 5:55 pm

Never, ever believe what you read on the Internet.

I do hope you appreciate the irony of that statement.

#14 Fish on 05.04.18 at 5:58 pm

Garth , love you words, Your Grrrrreat!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thankyou

#15 common sense on 05.04.18 at 6:23 pm

How many people are there who are not even looking for work in the USA?

Add that into the unemployment rate of 3.9% and tell me what you get…

10% plus?

#16 Lost...but not leased on 05.04.18 at 6:30 pm

Re: Trump et al

Was talking to an American relative in NYC area.

He submitted that Property Taxes used to be 100% deductible, but under Trump latest changes, only first $10,000 will be deductible.

He mentioned a well -off friend whose annual property taxes were in range of $47,000 …His friend can absorb that $37,000 added hit, the concern is now re: effect on any potential buyers.

My relative also mentioned the ridiculous cost to rent, as well as many large corporations are leaving NY and heading to southern states.

#17 Camille on 05.04.18 at 6:36 pm

Hello. President Trump exaggerates to make a point. My portfolio did not make 20% in the last two years. Did yours really do that?

A properly balanced & diversified portfolio fully invested in 2016 gave about 8.5% and almost 11% in 2017. Close enough. – Garth

#18 SunShowers on 05.04.18 at 6:41 pm

What good is 3.9% unemployment when most of those job gains are dead end part time McJobs?

What good are stock gains when the majority of people have either no or a token amount of stock market exposure?

Do you honestly think paying workers the bare minimum is sustainable? What happens when customers can’t afford to buy things and keep the consumption engine going? Maybe Maggie was actually talking about capitalism when she mentioned the problem of running out of other people’s money.

The only reason people like Bezos aren’t being led to the guillotine this very minute by starving peasants is because Amazon and other corporations rely on government social programs (EEW SOCIALISM) to subsidize their sub-subsistence wages to keep their employees fed.

#19 YVRvan on 05.04.18 at 6:47 pm

the most sane thing I’ve read all day

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-my-house-is-plummeting-in-value-and-i-couldnt-be-happier/

#20 Adrian on 05.04.18 at 6:49 pm

“Even better, more people are working but not demanding more money (good little slaves).”

Workers are slaves. And you wonder why some people don’t like Capitalism… Or respect the wealth you’ve accumulated…

#21 Fake News Again on 05.04.18 at 6:53 pm

The radical left and the never Trumpers must be going out of their minds…..

#22 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 05.04.18 at 6:53 pm

Bless her.

My wife, while out of town on work-related travel, and who often reads this blog over my shoulder, smartly rejected the Green bank’s latest offer (upsell?) of a 17K LOC at variable prime + 3.95% while calling in for a different matter. She’s in the process of building credit and her portfolio, not financial ruin via debt.

They see her Garth-folio and want some of that, plus interest. They couldn’t squeeze her – “…nope, don’t need or want that. Let’s get back to the issue of why I called YOU…”

Was a great day in this cold weather.

#23 Unhinged Trader on 05.04.18 at 6:56 pm

Boy it must suck having your name on a 700k mortgage in the GTA today when a tree falls on your plywood monster and you pull in from work and the shingle is all over the neighbours landscaping..

Ouch!

#24 Waiverless on 05.04.18 at 7:01 pm

#7 Smartalox on 05.04.18 at 4:56 pm
Another day, another change in NDP Real Estate Tax policies. They really ARE making it up as they go:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bc-rules-out-changes-to-tax-on-high-value-homes-amid-escalating/

Are we reading the article differently? The NDP has ruled out nixing the tax. Which means it’s still in affect. They aren’t changing anything – so can’t say they’re making it up as they go. Are you just misreading the titles and not bothering with reading the articles?

#25 morrey on 05.04.18 at 7:04 pm

“Given what houses are currently going for in my neighbourhood, it would appear I’ve lost a couple hundred thousand dollars or so in recent months. I couldn’t be happier.”
“My house is plummeting in value. And I couldn’t be happier. My fervent hope is BC’s NDP doesn’t back down on its house price cooling strategies”
-Gary Mason /GlobeandMail

#26 Waiverless on 05.04.18 at 7:05 pm

#13 Pecs Rockhard on 05.04.18 at 5:55 pm
Never, ever believe what you read on the Internet.

I do hope you appreciate the irony of that statement.

———————————————————–
I’m sure he put that statement in for the irony… that’s a classic Garth move

#27 Lost...but not leased on 05.04.18 at 7:05 pm

#7 Smartalox

It appears the BC NDP grasp on power is increasingly tenuous…

The Kinder Morgan pipeline appears to be blocked by NDP as a burnt offering to Andrew Weaver and the
Green Party(balance of power) ….as in all likelihood it will proceed once NDP attempt to block it via court challenge fails.

Then that leaves the vote on PR…which seems to be the Green Party’s main goal…which has failed twice in BC.

IMHO, the NDP has made serious errors in judgement, barely a year in office..and has ultimately catered to its hard core support and pissed- off the all crucial flex voters.

As Garth has stated many times, the markets were correcting via natural forces…but the General Public will lash out at the NDP s “final straw” half- baked ideas and policies…aka salt in the RE bleeding wound.

#28 Retired in Kelowna on 05.04.18 at 7:08 pm

#17 Camille. Just to back up Garth:
My diversified Portfolio returns in the last two years were
2016: 13.7%
2017: 13.4%
Figures are after fees. That adds up to 27.1% over two years.

#29 waiting on the westcoast on 05.04.18 at 7:10 pm

15 common sense on 05.04.18 at 6:23 pm says… “How many people are there who are not even looking for work in the USA? Add that into the unemployment rate of 3.9% and tell me what you get… 10% plus?”

Anecdotal – but my businesses in the US have been killing it since 2012 in the US. I just sold one operation because it’s starting to remind me of 2007.

Getting direct pushback from hourly workers with little education. If they are pushing, everyone is. Inflation is definitely going to pick up.

#30 Lost...but not leased on 05.04.18 at 7:11 pm

WARNING WARNING WARNING !!!!
…….(to all low and middle income earners)

CRA on the prowl..

Family member went to a tax professional recently…calculated that income taxes owed were $5000.

CRA came back within a month and said another $1600 was owing.

In contrast….since last year I am still awaiting a Clearance Document for my late Fathers estate…

#31 Debtslavecreator on 05.04.18 at 7:13 pm

What we’re in over the next 36 months or so is clsssic post historic credit bubble action – dramatic recession with rapid job loss leading to explosive deficits and a steadily collapsing currency then for the final bang a major soveriegn debt crisis in 2020-2021 at the latest that is more likely than not going to end with the BofC being forced to make multiple shock rate increases to try to stop the CAD from dropping below .50 c USD
Stagflationary depression
Add the rapid and steady cooling of climate due tho the historic drop in the suns energy output (started about 18 months ago and will progressively get worse with a brief break 2028-2032 after which the worst of the cooling will really get going – mini ice age) and you’re looking at a wild rise in food prices starting late 2019-2025 that will be a huge issue
Very difficult situation when you combine currency collapse/recession/cold weather in one spell
Cold broke and hungry is the theme from 2020-2032
But the Dow and high quality RE and agriculture /farming and AI/machine learning / defence will be very hot sectors along with the biggest Health care

#32 Fish on 05.04.18 at 7:18 pm

I mean REALLY, a gentle reminder to knock at the Door, thankyou

#33 Fake News Again on 05.04.18 at 7:21 pm

The judge DESTROYED Mueller today at the Manafort hearing. The judge said “NO ONE has unfettered power. You are only doing this to get Trump impeached”.

Again…..the left are going to need to freak out.

#34 Jerry on 05.04.18 at 7:34 pm

Not just Vancouver anymore

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-04/-neglected-child-no-more-montreal-is-next-hot-housing-market

“Chinese buyers, who can fly direct from Beijing and Shanghai, have emerged as the third-largest group by nationality after the U.S. and France, accounting for 16 percent of transactions in the province in 2017, from just 1.3 percent a decade earlier, according to Quebec budget documents.”

I guess there are more Chinese buyers in Montreal compared to Vancouver right Garth? You said they weren’t an influence in the Vancouver market

#35 Reximus on 05.04.18 at 7:37 pm

yup…give itup

#36 For those about to flop... on 05.04.18 at 7:37 pm

Vancouver detached…..399k

Next…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1525-coal-harbour-quay/b17

#37 Paddler on 05.04.18 at 7:40 pm

I believe the next rate hike when I see it. The last predicted one March7 did not happen.Too many predicted mortgage rates hikes on this blog did not happen on the predicted dates in the past few years. There is way to much uncertainty in the economy right now.

Even a dead clock is right twice a day.

Rates went up last week. This week, too. – Garth

#38 SoggyShorts on 05.04.18 at 7:46 pm

#15 common sense on 05.04.18 at 6:23 pm
How many people are there who are not even looking for work in the USA?
*****************************
If you want to add in everyone under 14 years old and everyone who is retired or a stay at home parent maybe it’s 40%?
Who cares though? The only thing that matters in employment stats is whether people who want (need) to work are doing so.

#39 Gravy Train on 05.04.18 at 7:47 pm

It sucks large if you need to renew your mortgage this year or are a newbie trying to qualify for one. — Garth

I renewed my 2-year fixed closed mortgage at 2.19% this year with a 5-year variable closed mortgage at 2.35%, up just 16 bips (so far). It pays to engage a mortgage broker! :)

Congratulations. You may well make payments for five years and end up owing more. – Garth

#40 Stone on 05.04.18 at 7:53 pm

#18 SunShowers on 05.04.18 at 6:41 pm
What good is 3.9% unemployment when most of those job gains are dead end part time McJobs?

What good are stock gains when the majority of people have either no or a token amount of stock market exposure?

Do you honestly think paying workers the bare minimum is sustainable? What happens when customers can’t afford to buy things and keep the consumption engine going? Maybe Maggie was actually talking about capitalism when she mentioned the problem of running out of other people’s money.

The only reason people like Bezos aren’t being led to the guillotine this very minute by starving peasants is because Amazon and other corporations rely on government social programs (EEW SOCIALISM) to subsidize their sub-subsistence wages to keep their employees fed.

————-

Blah blah blah. Just pull yourself up by your bootstraps and try to do better. It’s not that most people can’t do better than minimum wage. They can’t be bothered to do better. Also, it’s easier to spend now than invest in stocks and bonds for the future and make that money grow. That’s why the majority of people are called sheeple. No sympathy here.

#41 Investx on 05.04.18 at 7:57 pm

Savers finally being rewarded!

#42 IMHO on 05.04.18 at 8:00 pm

I wish professional wealth managers (and part-time web bloggers) would take the time to understand the historical and true measure of the word inflation – and how central banks have actually changed the meaning of the word – to suit their needs.

Inflation IS the expansion of the money supply, with rising prices a result of said expansion. Cause and effect.

Inflation is now defined as just a consistent rise in prices. No mention of money supply.

Everyone knows prices rise or fall for many reasons (supply, demand, technology, taxes…etc.), to say rising consumer prices IS inflation is just a distraction. So, why the reason for the change? Simple.

If the definition of inflation remained as it were, then rising prices would be inexorably linked to an expansion of the money supply. Q: And who expands the money supply? A: Central banks

Therefore, the devaluation of your currency causing you to need more money to buy the same items would be eventually blamed on the only people it could be by joe public. CB’s.

…and they can’t have that now can they.

https://www.managementstudyguide.com/definition-of-inflation.htm

Nicely whiny, but useless. – Garth

#43 Moses71 on 05.04.18 at 8:02 pm

So the cheshire cat Hillary would’ve been better? Doubt it. Investors are doing cartwheels since the Trumpster became the Prez. Their silence says it all.
Always enjoyed that Apprentice Show thing lol

#44 For those about to flop... on 05.04.18 at 8:03 pm

Anyone who wonders why I do things a certain way should take a quick look at this article.

They do a more formal version of what I do ,but they spend a lot of time and I think I read somewhere that they spend $12 each time to access the land title and report anyone that is not a Smith and Jones.

People on the blog have even asked me if I am one of their sources

I stay out of all that ,and only transfer information on this blog and this blog alone for the benefit of the owner and the people of Vancouver that are interested,who owns the property is not that important to me only transparency in the numbers.

Vancouver real estate board is always threatening to sue these guys.

I can’t afford that.

Heck ,I don’t even wanna pay $12 to view the land title…

M43BC

https://thinkpol.ca/2017/11/15/vancouver-real-estate-board-threatens-thinkpol-with-lawsuit-to-protect-foreign-buyer-privacy/

#45 Reynolds531 on 05.04.18 at 8:04 pm

#21 gravy train

Lock in, right now. Why is 50bps or even 1% worth so much risk?

#46 Newcomer on 05.04.18 at 8:08 pm

The interesting question is how long it will take the general public to go from seeing RE as a money maker to seeing it as a terrible risk that can ruin your life. I think that the intervention in 2009 will have convinced many people that downturns are not to be feared, so even two years of falling prices may not be enough to scare people off. I also believe that, if the psychology changes, the floor for prices will be set by fundamentals, and that floor is a very long way down indeed.

#47 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.04.18 at 8:16 pm

@#44 Floppie

I’ve checked out Thinkpol a few times.
They’re not bad.
Hammer the Real Estate industry out here in the Lower Brainland relentlessly.
Some of their stuff is a bit Left of my way of thinking (stinking?).
But. All in all.
Not a bad site.

#48 Ian on 05.04.18 at 8:17 pm

I think the Fed will surprise a lot of people in June and not raise. And even if they do, that’s the last one then we roll over into a nightmare QE4 failure attempt.

You guys are forgetting the politics again. I said Yellen didn’t raise in 16 as she was trying to help Hillarious (two Democrats). Powell will help Trumpy by keeping rates low.

Q1 GDP was downgraded all the way to 2%. Inflation’s the fastest it’s been in years. The number that is reported for US employment is a joke, you need to look at the U6 number that includes part time jobs and those who have given up.

Auto sales this week were very light. Savings rate is very low. Debt on student loans and autos is off the hook.

The US economy is far weaker than is being reported. Don’t believe the media bs.

#49 SunShowers on 05.04.18 at 8:25 pm

#40 Stone on 05.04.18 at 7:53 pm

———–

Ahhh, I never get tired of the familiar capitalist adage of “MUH BOOTSTRAPS” when they lack the knowledge to discuss socialism on its merits or the failings of capitalism.

Listen bud, there are many working stiffs out there working 2-3 jobs concurrently, putting in 60-70 hour weeks, sweating more than you have or ever will in your life, and still not getting by. And all you can muster is a ham handed “Well, I just don’t understand why poor people can’t just BUY more money so they can get an education/invest/eat/etc!”

But if you don’t want to have any sympathy for us, that’s fine. I promise we won’t have any for you when the pitchforks eventually come out.

#50 PeterfromCalgary on 05.04.18 at 8:27 pm

Look at the positive side. Savers will get more interest income and when the next down turn happens the Fed will have more room to lower rates with out going into negative interest rates.

#51 oopswediditagain on 05.04.18 at 8:27 pm

Paddler: “There is way to much uncertainty in the economy right now.

Even a dead clock is right twice a day.

Rates went up last week. This week, too. – Garth
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Yes, Paddler, there is so much uncertainty and unfortunately for the debt hounds it's not going to be good certainty.

One of the biggest challenges that the US Fed has is in the “deleveraging” of their own bond purchases. This move alone could push interest rates up significantly quicker.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/28/the-fed-and-treasury-is-growing-an-800-disconnect-in-the-bond-market.html

“Wells Fargo expects the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to hit 3.20 percent by the end of the year, around 40 basis points higher than current levels. Yields have not been that high since May 2011. The 10-year has not even crossed the 3 percent threshold since January 2014.”

“Who is going to buy the bonds? We keep searching around and there haven’t been, frankly, many takers,” said Schumacher. “The U.S. Treasury right now is scrambling a little bit, and it’s that big glut you’ve got coming out of the market that really should push rates up.”

#52 MaxBerniersShorrs on 05.04.18 at 8:28 pm

#7 Smartalox
You misread the article you quoted. Horgan specifically says they will not be giving into the protests by the owners of multimillion dollar homes. Worth noting these protests by the overentitled are being stoked by Realturds.

#53 Newcomer on 05.04.18 at 8:29 pm

#19 YVRvan on 05.04.18 at 6:47 pm
the most sane thing I’ve read all day

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-my-house-is-plummeting-in-value-and-i-couldnt-be-happier/
——
“Even if prices were to plunge 20 to 30 per cent, many people will have still “made” a bundle.”

Try 40 to 60%. But even after a 60% fall, people who bought 15 years ago in Vancouver would be well ahead of inflation (though obviously behind where a balanced portfolio would put them).

#54 Dave on 05.04.18 at 8:34 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-04/-neglected-child-no-more-montreal-is-next-hot-housing-market

#55 young & foolish on 05.04.18 at 8:50 pm

“Congratulations. You may well make payments for five years and end up owing more. – Garth”

Hahaha … financial illiteracy in action?

#56 HanMan3000 on 05.04.18 at 8:51 pm

April 2018 Market stats are available at http://TorontoRealEstateCharts.com

#57 young & foolish on 05.04.18 at 8:56 pm

“Inflation IS the expansion of the money supply, with rising prices a result of said expansion”

Tell that to people waiting for prices to decline to pre GFC levels ….

#58 Big Kahuna on 05.04.18 at 9:04 pm

The USA didn’t do it-the guy you hate for reasons never articulated did it-Donald Trump did what Obama and Bush and Clinton couldn’t do.

#59 Lorne on 05.04.18 at 9:07 pm

#27 Lost…but not leased on

It appears the BC NDP grasp on power is increasingly tenuous…
………
Really? What makes you say that? Link? Last link I saw, Horgan was the most popular premier in the country.
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/03/21/canadas-most-popular-premiers-poll-2-leaders-tied-for-top-spot-after-brad-walls-exit_a_23391543/

……………

The Kinder Morgan pipeline appears to be blocked by NDP as a burnt offering to Andrew Weaver and the
Green Party(balance of power) ….as in all likelihood it will proceed once NDP attempt to block it via court challenge fails.

Then that leaves the vote on PR…which seems to be the Green Party’s main goal…which has failed twice in BC.
……….
Actually, it gathered 57.7% acceptance but, due to your friend, Gordon Campbell, it was considered to “fail” as he set the bar at 60%
………..

IMHO, the NDP has made serious errors in judgement, barely a year in office..and has ultimately catered to its hard core support and pissed- off the all crucial flex voters.
……..
Surprise…..the majority of people do not have much sympathy for the 1% or those whose houses have skyrocketed to over 3 million dollars.
……………….

As Garth has stated many times, the markets were correcting via natural forces…but the General Public will lash out at the NDP s “final straw” half- baked ideas and policies…aka salt in the RE bleeding wound.
…….
The majority of the general public seems to be just fine with the NDP bringing in measures to ensure a market correction.

#60 april on 05.04.18 at 9:09 pm

#36 – what are the monthly moorage fees?

#61 Deplorable Dude on 05.04.18 at 9:22 pm

#33 Fake News Again….”The judge DESTROYED Mueller today at the Manafort hearing”

The judge has stumbled upon evidence that Mueller has taken over the DOJ/FBI illegal surveillance of the Trump administration and abused the FISA warrant spy process to do so.

The judge has called their bluff.

This came on the back of NBC’s furious back pedalling yesterday after accidentally revealing Meuller was monitoring the phone calls of the President’s lawyer.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/05/04/federal-judge-catches-robert-mueller-using-preexisting-fisa-title-1-warrant-against-paul-manafort-instead-of-title-3-authority/

#62 acdel on 05.04.18 at 9:22 pm

#48 Ian

————-

Yep, someone who gets it, very refreshing!

#63 mike from mtl on 05.04.18 at 9:23 pm

#37 Paddler on 05.04.18 at 7:40 pm
I believe the next rate hike when I see it.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Exactly. FED might do one more this summer, BoC one to follow before year’s end to keep track – probably no more in 2018.

The cracks are clearly starting to show.

#64 Smoking Man on 05.04.18 at 9:24 pm

Christ, every shop from lauguna beach to laughlin nv
Help wanted signs everywhere. I can not see how deporting the mexicans is going to help the worker shortages here.

Lots of Canadians down here too.

#65 arfmoocat on 05.04.18 at 9:27 pm

Well housing sucks in off the grid markets like Edmonton and Calgary

https://www.livrealestate.ca/blog/2018/05/weekly-market-update-may-4-18.html

#66 young & foolish on 05.04.18 at 9:27 pm

“A properly balanced & diversified portfolio fully invested in 2016 gave about 8.5% and almost 11% in 2017. Close enough. – Garth”

I have to agree with this ….. however, indexing was easy during this long bull market run … but now, with volatility and skittishness returning on the scene ????

#67 -=jwk=- on 05.04.18 at 10:04 pm

How many people are there who are not even looking for work in the USA?

Add that into the unemployment rate of 3.9% and tell me what you get…

10% plus?

There are only 4 possible scenarios here:

1) Republican president, unemployment UP = fake news, statisticians lie
2) Republican president, unemployment down = 100% due to president saving country
3) Democratic president, unemployment UP = 100% due to president destroying country
4) Democratic president, unemployment down = fake news, doesnt account for true unemployed

You have chosen an invalid option. One does not question a lower unemployment rate with a sitting Republican president.
Therefore we are in situation 2.

#68 Gravy Train on 05.04.18 at 10:06 pm

#15 common sense on 05.04.18 at 6:23 pm
“How many people are there who are not even looking for work in the USA? Add that into the unemployment rate of 3.9% and tell me what you get… 10% plus?”

People who have no job and are not looking for one are counted as not in the labour force (and are not unemployed). Are you saying they should be forced to work? Retirees? Students? You have to be part of the labour force even to be considered unemployed. (This stuff is so basic, I shouldn’t even have to explain it to you.)
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#nilf

People are classified as unemployed if they “do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work.” The labour force consists of the employed and the unemployed.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#unemployed

Maybe you meant to say “those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months.” Is that what you meant? These persons are referred to as “marginally attached to the labour force.”

Maybe you were referring to discouraged workers. “Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work.”

Were you referring to “persons employed part time for economic reasons (those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule)”?

Well, guess what! The Department of Labour Statistics tracks those figures as well! While the official unemployment rate (U-3) is 3.9%, the total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force (U-6) is 7.8% (and not the 10+% figure you suggested). (See link below.)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

#69 Marco on 05.04.18 at 10:06 pm

I hope Marco Rubio will be the next president.
https://youtu.be/dY5UGaW6-Yk

#70 Smartalox on 05.04.18 at 10:08 pm

@Waiverless #24:

You’re right, that was my bad. I was distracted while skimming the article and thought it was a re-hash of the Vancouver Sun article that I’d posted a day before, citing former BCNDP premier Mike Harcourt’s statements about how he’s come to regret the idea of a surtax, first floated when he was premier, and how now, looking back from the porch of his $3M house, he thought it was a bad idea, driven by ideology instead of economics, etc.

When I turned back to the globe article, I was reading the later paragraphs where the author discussed the wakback of the speculation tax.

Thanks for pointing out the error, though I imagine Weaver will still hew to his constituents in Oak Bay, and rein in Horgan and the NDP.

Or maybe force that election Weaver’s always threatening.

#71 Dental Canadian Millenial on 05.04.18 at 10:08 pm

Why did you allow your dog in the pic to suffer with two front worn out teeth? I can see the nerves inside those hollow teeth.

You will probably grind your teeth once Poloz cuts interest rates for the Toronto sheeple and Vancouver surfboarders. Poloz aims for a 40-cent Loonie, so by the time you go to the dentist for your annual checkup that $2,500 molar implant will become at least $5,000+.

#72 Blood in the Streets on 05.04.18 at 10:11 pm

#48 Ian on 05.04.18 at 8:17 pm

I think the Fed will surprise a lot of people in June and not raise…

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I don’t think they have much of a choice!

The debt gap means higher interest rates
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-global-economy-is-getting-stronger-not-according-to-these-charts-2018-05-02

#73 SoggyShorts on 05.04.18 at 10:17 pm

#28 Retired in Kelowna on 05.04.18 at 7:08 pm
#17 Camille. Just to back up Garth:
My diversified Portfolio returns in the last two years were
2016: 13.7%
2017: 13.4%
Figures are after fees. That adds up to 27.1% over two years.

********************************
Unless you took out all of your gains Dec 31 2016, shouldn’t it be more? Gains on the gains is what we’re going for after all.

#74 Steven Rowlandson on 05.04.18 at 10:27 pm

If it means that those so called good little slaves can not house themselves and raise and support families on one income then it means nothing! Ultimately society and the economy will not only not progress, it will surely perish.
Everything a man and his family needs must come from his work and on reasonable terms. Society forgets that at its peril.

#75 Gravy Train on 05.04.18 at 10:36 pm

Congratulations. You may well make payments for five years and end up owing more. – Garth

#45 Reynolds531 on 05.04.18 at 8:04 pm
“Lock in, right now. Why is 50bps or even 1% worth so much risk?”

Do you both recommend that I lock in to a 1-, 3-, 4- or 5-year fixed close mortgage? And if so which? (I have about a 100 grand left on the mortgage.)

#76 Steven Rowlandson on 05.04.18 at 10:41 pm

“Never, ever believe what you read on the Internet.”

If that is honest advice then why is it that we read this web page and others and post comments?

#77 Mike on 05.04.18 at 10:41 pm

#31 Debtslavecreator

I see we follow the same models – glad to see someone who has a good grasp on reality!

#78 ben on 05.04.18 at 10:49 pm

Bloomberg really is in the dogs now. Unvarnished realtor propaganda on Montreal.

I’m here. People I know are offering under the list price and getting traction.

How hot is that!

#79 Ian on 05.04.18 at 10:50 pm

Schiff discussing inflation, new video tonight.

Don’t tell Mark!!

https://youtu.be/94mJAv60_DA

#80 jane24 on 05.04.18 at 10:51 pm

Well back from my holiday in Vietnam. Report is as follows:

The difference in construction since I was as there 2 years ago is amazing. Talk about a boom. Money seems to be Chinese, Korean and Russian. Vietnam is mostly bilingual – as in Vietnamese and English. Lots of lost French tourists milling around. De Nang will be the next Dubai, top end condos, golf courses and casinos going in all along those wonderful pristine beaches. Temperature great in the Canadian winter but starting to move up now. More direct flights going in to new airports. We went Heathrow to Hanoi direct.

Life once you get there still amazingly affordable. A taxi around town is about $5 for 30 mins, a 4 star hotel is about $49 a night but much cheaper if you go native. We rented a flat for a week for $100 all in. Nice dinner is about $6 but you can go local for $2. A lot more Canadians living the dream there on the cheap as residency visas now only have to be renewed once a year rather than every 3 months. Renewed by going shopping in Hong Kong over night.

Places like Vietnam are the future. RE speculation by foreigners is controlled as you cannot buy property freehold but only long term leases.

If you visit get out of Hanoi or HCM after a few days as the pollution there or the moterbikes will kill you. They are after all going through a fast track Industrial Revolution. Get out on their many modern West Jet type budget airlines to secondary cities or beach resorts. You can fly within Vietnam for about $30. Their infrastructure is modernising fast.

Fab place to retire too especially in a Canadian winter. Hell of a lot better than Florida.

On another note cyber coins are big businesses and a lot of this stuff originates in Vietnam. We met many folk who are playing the 100s of cyber coins now avail very successfully with bot apps on their phones. As I said, a whole new world.

#81 IMHO on 05.04.18 at 10:51 pm

“The stage is now set for another Fed jump in June and then one more (at least by the end of the year)”
– That’s odd, because in the face of all this great news they held rates only 24 hrs ago.

“Stocks love that. They went up 400 points Friday”
– Dow and S&P are down 10% on the year. A 400 pt rise on Friday still meant the Dow was negative for the week.

#82 IKnow on 05.04.18 at 11:01 pm

#13 Pecs Rockhard on 05.04.18 at 5:55 pm
Never, ever believe what you read on the Internet.

I do hope you appreciate the irony of that statement

—————

Paradox: this statement is false!

#83 ben on 05.04.18 at 11:03 pm

Someone has already posted it but here is a boomer who is actually telling the truth:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-my-house-is-plummeting-in-value-and-i-couldnt-be-happier/

Have a read.

#84 Gravy Train on 05.04.18 at 11:31 pm

#28 Retired in Kelowna on 05.04.18 at 7:08 pm
“My diversified Portfolio returns in the last two years were 1) 2016: 13.7%, and 2) 2017: 13.4%. Figures are after fees. That adds up to 27.1% over two years.”

Don’t forget annual compounding. Your effective return over the two years was actually 1.137 x 1.134 = 1.289 (or 28.9%). Check it out! :)

#85 rental property math on 05.04.18 at 11:44 pm

Just curious. What’s a balanced portfolio making this year to date? My best guess is half a percent so far this year.

It didn’t lose any shingles in southern ontario that’s for sure.

#86 Hicksville Alberta on 05.04.18 at 11:44 pm

One of my oilpatch kids moved out to Vancouver about two years ago and is making his way and even started a small business last June which seems to be starting to kick in a bit.

I talk with him occasionally and today we chatted for about three hours.

He is out a lot with his little business and meets and sees lots of people and sees lots of desperation around with little or no hope and lots just trying to live paycheck to paycheck and many still getting deeper in debt.

He lives with his girlfriend in a west end apartment on the 22nd floor and on January 1st, his New Year’s treat was to wake up to a big crashing noise and when he looked out the window, he saw that one of the tenants in his building had plunged out of the window of an apartment above him and landed on the roof of a store below, thus killing himself.

Didn’t even make the news or the papers, but it has been a life changing experience for my son. It still bothers him a lot.

He has a 79 year old neighbour on the same floor as his apartment and each night the neighbour takes an electric cord into the hall and plugs in for some power from the building’s meter for his suite. Each morning the cord is gone, only to return again at night.

That’s only a couple of things going on out there and there must be tons of stories that go untold each day.

So good on Horgan and Eby et al but they really need to dig up enough real dirt and start some serious prosecutions and asset seizures with lots of honest publicity.

#87 Lost....but not leased on 05.05.18 at 12:00 am

# 59 Lorne the NDP apologist

Suggest you do a little more homework and not rely on old/ bad information.

PR is sheer idealism…BC would be worse off than it is now with (3) Green MLA’s…. ( all of whose ridings are on Vancouver Island’s Southern tip) holding the entire Province hostage…what a joke..talk about dictatorship.

#88 Gravy Train on 05.05.18 at 12:13 am

#64 Smoking Man on 05.04.18 at 9:24 pm
“I cannot see how deporting the Mexicans is going to help the worker shortages here.”

It’s nice—and rather unexpected—to see that you are indeed capable of applying critical thinking skills. Just don’t show Protea, Big Kahuna, or Fake News Again what you wrote, or they’ll disown you. Oh, no, too late! :)

#89 Russ on 05.05.18 at 12:22 am

Camille on 05.04.18 at 6:36 pm

Hello. President Trump exaggerates to make a point. My portfolio did not make 20% in the last two years. Did yours really do that?

A properly balanced & diversified portfolio fully invested in 2016 gave about 8.5% and almost 11% in 2017. Close enough. – Garth
======================

Hi Camille,

My fee based guy got me similar performance that Garth reports.
5 year @ 8.4% with a 12% winner last year. Our target was a reasonable 6 -7% YOY

My hobby account is a mix of Garth and steerage section and is <5% for the 5 year period.

The hobby is fun and fortunately for me, less than 10% of financials… and the under performance difference is still a lot less than the cost of maintaining the motorcycles and yacht.

#90 Smoking Man on 05.05.18 at 12:23 am

The dog pic.

Never expose the truth on linked in unless you have alien DNA. You all do. You just don’t know it.

https://youtu.be/iMaJyUQfwv4

Love this song. Band on Nicotine.

The council . idiots

#91 balooney on 05.05.18 at 12:30 am

OK, but you forgot to mention that S&P 500 is down by 10% from Jan 26.

#92 Smoking Man on 05.05.18 at 12:36 am

When u make choice. Difficult on the amount of schooling you endured

https://youtu.be/vx2u5uUu3DE

#93 Wog on 05.05.18 at 12:37 am

Happy housing crash forgot to take his meds again

#94 Smoking Man on 05.05.18 at 12:46 am

Love this man
..https://youtu.be/vx2u5uUu3DE

#95 Dolce Vita on 05.05.18 at 12:47 am

#4 Bri UK

Next “Labour Force Survey”: May 11.

Release Schedule:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3587

#96 Hamsterwheelie on 05.05.18 at 1:03 am

Its all true and its making me anxiety, hair falling out, crazy that finding financing for a house that we’ve dropped a few hundred thousand into, to make into a firesafe, to code, fourplex, that we plan to live in – can’t get a mortgage. Any ol crapshack McMansion can get financed on someone’s job – a job they could lose at any moment! Us self-employed, free-range, ‘eat what ya kill’ types, making it through all kinds of weather, establishing great credit, raising families…nope, no mortgage for you with your house that you built and that has excellent equity and income. Shakin my fist and my head.

#97 Rexx Rock on 05.05.18 at 1:07 am

Canada’s central bank rate at 1.25% may rise to 1.5% and then its done.The goverment wants to raise inflation for Canadians.Not raising interest rates will destroy the Canadian consumer.Its all planned,almost 10 years and counting.Garth, stop drinking the kool aid,we will never have normalized interest rates again.I thought you were smart enough not to believe all the lies and propaganda.We are the next Japan.I and all Canadians have already accepted this for our future.

#98 Capt. Serious on 05.05.18 at 1:12 am

#66 young & foolish on 05.04.18 at 9:27 pm
“A properly balanced & diversified portfolio fully invested in 2016 gave about 8.5% and almost 11% in 2017. Close enough. – Garth”

I have to agree with this ….. however, indexing was easy during this long bull market run … but now, with volatility and skittishness returning on the scene ????

If you believe in an equity risk premium (and you should if you hold stocks at all), then you just stay the course. It is the duty of the holder of equities to suffer short term losses from time to time for longer term higher expected returns. Indexing is still the most efficient way to capture the equity risk premium.

#99 NEVER GIVE UP on 05.05.18 at 2:04 am

Every one of these scammers have taken the future of our young people and ruined them.

Every Condo is between $100,000 to $500,000 more expensive than it should be.

I say tax all the profiteers and Jail the previous government for complicity.

Lock them up!
Lock them up!
Lock them up!

Anyone who has paid $1000.00 for a seat at a rock concert know what it is like to be scammed by this type of fraud.

Ticketmaster recently tried to stem the problem but failed miserably by not having enough staff to check the tickets and the owners ID that needed to match the ticket.

I figure this was an intentional failure as ticketmaster makes good money with the help of scalpers. Whole stadiums sell out in minutes and sometimes the scalpers are left with the empty seats.

If Ticketmaster and our Government wanted to stop this and the RE fraud they would have done so easily years ago.

Look at how efficient they are at killing the Fun in the Bars with the BARWATCH program. Someone from Europe goes to Granville street without ID and can’t get in the bar. Leaves Dumbfounded.

Dont tell me they cannot do the same with condos and Concert Tickets.

http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/sellers-buyers-and-developers-liable-for-presale-condo-related-taxes

#100 Myra Andrews on 05.05.18 at 3:11 am

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul Boenisch

May 4 New 191 Sold 110 TI 10540
May 3 New 213 Sold 103 TI 10503
May 2 New 268 Sold 146 TI 10481
May 1 New 363 Sold 134 TI 10420
Apr 30 New 375 Sold 163 TI 10349

April 16-27 New 2453 Sold 1224 TI 10,347
April 3-13 New 2111 Sold 916 TI 9727

Mar 19-29 New 1834 Sold 1072 TI 9032
Mar 5-16 New 2248 Sold 1224 TI 8743

The inventory at the end of February was 8211

#101 Gravy Train on 05.05.18 at 6:05 am

Congratulations. You may well make payments for five years and end up owing more. – Garth

#55 young & foolish on 05.04.18 at 8:50 pm
“Hahaha … financial illiteracy in action?”

Do you have any evidence of my alleged financial illiteracy or innumeracy?

Here are the facts: I have about a hundred grand left on a five-year variable closed mortgage, and I can easily pay it off anytime using my liquid assets:
• within five years without penalty using prepayment privileges, or
• all at once but subject to a prepayment penalty.

Young & Foolish, you have no evidence, your allegation is groundless, and you certainly live up to your moniker! You may want to add this to it: ‘& Arrogant & Ignorant’! How did you put it again? Oh, yes, I remember: Ha! :)

#102 Ian on 05.05.18 at 7:06 am

Paddler
Oopswediditagain
acdel
Mike from Mtl
Blood in the streets

Finally, FINALLY we have a group of people who get it!

The US is in a NIGHTMARE scenario. Growth is slowing. Inflation from all the years of cheap money is rising.

Yields are rising NOT because the Fed will raise, it’s because they are trying to bridge a 2 trillion shortfall in one year alone (1.3 from Trump tax cuts, 0.6-0.8 from Fed trying to unload dog poo from balance sheet). How will that happen? Yields need to be way, way higher for this to even make sense.

And for Gravy and others talking about unemployment, the U6 one is the only one that matters and it’s at 7.8%.
If you work for one hour a week you’re marked as employed in the main figure. It’s a joke.

#103 #3 of the Majestic 12 on 05.05.18 at 7:55 am

#96 Hamsterwheelie

Try manulife…they have a “manulife one” mortgage program that they market to us “self employed”—it is very flexible and they are great to deal with. Link is below. As I stated here before, we also had trouble getting financing for our business since we did not have “jobs”. They were a lifesaver during a very stressful time (and rates are very competitive). (And before the dogs call me out, I am not a realtor or mortgage broker! I am a small business owner in Ontario…the last of a dying breed I think).
Finally, sorry for what you are going through. Folks with regular jobs just don’t get it. During our financing challenge I ended up with boils everywhere from the stress.

Good Luck!

https://manulifebankmortgages.ca/mortgage-done-differently/

#104 -=jwk=- on 05.05.18 at 9:01 am

Here are the facts: I have about a hundred grand left on a five-year variable closed mortgage, and I can easily pay it off anytime using my liquid assets:
• within five years without penalty using prepayment privileges, or
• all at once but subject to a prepayment penalty.

Then learn how to use excel and figure it out; why are you asking us?

here’s your answer: stack your prepayment privileges (one time, plus double up, plus increase payments) and pay it off in 2 years with no penalties …

#105 Stone on 05.05.18 at 9:11 am

#49 SunShowers on 05.04.18 at 8:25 pm
#40 Stone on 05.04.18 at 7:53 pm

———–

Ahhh, I never get tired of the familiar capitalist adage of “MUH BOOTSTRAPS” when they lack the knowledge to discuss socialism on its merits or the failings of capitalism.

Listen bud, there are many working stiffs out there working 2-3 jobs concurrently, putting in 60-70 hour weeks, sweating more than you have or ever will in your life, and still not getting by. And all you can muster is a ham handed “Well, I just don’t understand why poor people can’t just BUY more money so they can get an education/invest/eat/etc!”

But if you don’t want to have any sympathy for us, that’s fine. I promise we won’t have any for you when the pitchforks eventually come out.

———-

What? The poor can afford pitchforks? Looks like the poor have been holding out. Why are they wasting their precious few dollars on such trinkets? LOL

You might never get tired of that adage but there’s no denying the truth of it. You can work hard or you can work smart. Only fools continue to fool themselves. Ta ta, silly deluded fool.

#106 Reynolds531 on 05.05.18 at 9:25 am

#101 gravy

You probably have to lock in for three years or greater. Because of this your leverage to negotiate on rate is now somewhat limited. Unless you’re willing to pay the penalty to break the term.

Why do you have that much cash? Do you need it for something else?

I can’t say what term is best for your individual need. From a rate perspective adding 1percent for five years of certainty can be a good deal.

#107 Waiverless on 05.05.18 at 9:35 am

#70 Smartalox on 05.04.18 at 10:08 pm

The title in the link is pretty badly written. It can be read as they’re nixing their originally changes to the tax perhaps. I had to read the article twice after you posted your original statement because the title was confusing me + your interpretation of it… So let’s blame the author of it :)

#108 the Jaguar on 05.05.18 at 9:46 am

“Wiring, framing and general mayhem as the bank rises again.”

You could get some talented artist to paint elegant murals within those framed pieces. Would be interested to know if there was any flooring that was historical/beautiful that will be saved. When are you going to tell us what you are going to do with all the space, Garth?

A reveal, soon. – Garth

#109 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.18 at 9:49 am

@#100 Myra Andrews

Hmmmm
Inventory climbing
Sales dropping

A wonderful combination………

I cant wait to see what sales are when inventory is pushing 20,000 and people still refuse to drop “their” price.

#110 the Jaguar on 05.05.18 at 9:50 am

This guy could do it.
https://alexkwong.net/

#111 crowdedelevatorfartz on 05.05.18 at 10:10 am

@#86 Hicksville.

Yep.
The cost of everything in Van. is ridiculous.
Rent for a one bdroom in downtown van. average $1800/month.
Cost of gas $161.9/liter
Car insurance for a 4 year old vehicle with a 10 year accident free 43% “discount from the govt insurance monopoly $1950. ( “A smouldering garbage heap” was how the incoming NDP minister described the insolvent govt car insurance company)
In the last 2 weeks alone I have seen healthy, well dressed, homeless people.
One family standing on a street corner ( Mom , Pop, kids)in the rain with a sign looking for affordable accomodations…..not money….. just a place to rent.
Disgusting.
One young kid in his car jammed with all his worldly posessions…sleeping outside a Tims at 5am.
These are working people that either cant find or cant afford to rent….
A friend in the West end pointed out 3 apartments in one highrise building across the alley way one night a few weeks back. Curtains open. Empty, dark, no furniture, no activity. Been like that for almost a year…… obviously an “investment” for someone with enough money to buy a place (places) and let them sit and rot.
And as far as I’m concerned
The harder the Dippers out here hammer the flippers and speccer’s ……..the better.
Because the previous 10 years of Liberal arrogant mismanagement did NOTHING but enrich themselves on the backs of the working poor.
The unaffordablity and homelessness is the result.
We wont even talk about the record overdose deaths, suicide rates, looming bankruptcies, on and on and on.
“The Best Place on Earth” say the license plates the Liberals unleashed on a gullible public years ago.
You could buy one for an extra $100…..every year on your car insurance renewal…..

#112 dharma bum on 05.05.18 at 10:46 am

Even better, more people are working but not demanding more money (good little slaves). – Garth
——————————————————————–

“Get a job. Go to work. Get married. Have children. Follow fashion. Act normal. Walk on the pavement. Watch TV. Obey the law. Save for your old age. Now repeat after me: I am free.” ~Unknown

Corporate Work = Slavery

http://www.careerizma.com/blog/7-signs-you-are-a-corporate-slave/

Choose freedom.

#113 Midnights on 05.05.18 at 11:04 am

I’ll listen to Sam Zell before this guy….
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-05-01/brookfield-ceo-disagrees-with-zell-sees-opportunities-in-real-estate-video

#114 Gravy Train on 05.05.18 at 11:15 am

#106 Reynolds531 on 05.05.18 at 9:25 am
“Why do you have that much cash? Do you need it for something else?”

I said I had liquid assets. Low-cost index funds are liquid assets! My annual effective rate of return for 2016 was 19.9% (after fees). Now do you see why I don’t pay off my mortgage? I wonder if Young & Stupid has figured it out yet! :)

#104 -=jwk=- on 05.05.18 at 9:01 am
“Then learn how to use Excel and figure it out; why are you asking us? Here’s your answer: stack your prepayment privileges (one time, plus double up, plus increase payments) and pay it off in 2 years with no penalties….”

Buzz off, jackass!

#115 Reynolds531 on 05.05.18 at 12:10 pm

#114 gravy

You have to admit, based on the information you gave it was tough to give you good advice. Liquid means cash to my mind. Paint a full picture and some here might give you great advice.

You seem to have things figured out. I wouldn’t go variable, but you do you.

#116 Lorne on 05.05.18 at 12:40 pm

#87 Lost….but not leased
# 59 Lorne the NDP apologist

Suggest you do a little more homework and not rely on old/ bad information.

PR is sheer idealism…BC would be worse off than it is now with (3) Green MLA’s…. ( all of whose ridings are on Vancouver Island’s Southern tip) holding the entire Province hostage…what a joke..talk about dictatorship.
……
Not sure what “old/bad information” you are referring to…please elaborate…if you can.

Done lots of homework…perhaps you might want to consider doing just a bit as all I am seeing from you are “opinions”. You realize, of course, that 23 of 28 western European countries utliize Proportional Representation and seem to be getting along just fine (check out Germany some time!).
Also, interestingly enough, none of the recently democratized countries in Europe chose FPTP as their method for electing their government….they all chose PR.

Dictatorship….what do you call a FPTP election where one party garners 40% of the vote (traditional in BC and how the “Liberals” ruled for years), and then has 100% of the power? That sounds like Dictatorship to me.
PR is all about fairness (if your party gets 30% of the vote, they hold 30% of the power) and cooperation…two important aspects that are absent in FPTP systems.

#117 Fake News Again on 05.05.18 at 12:44 pm

Fake News Again on 05.04.18 at 6:53 pm
The radical left and the never Trumpers must be going out of their minds…..

Gravy Train on 05.05.18 at 12:13 am
#64 Smoking Man on 05.04.18 at 9:24 pm
“I cannot see how deporting the Mexicans is going to help the worker shortages here.”

It’s nice—and rather unexpected—to see that you are indeed capable of applying critical thinking skills. Just don’t show Protea, Big Kahuna, or Fake News Again what you wrote, or they’ll disown you. Oh, no, too late! :)

_______

I rest my case……..

#118 Fake News Again on 05.05.18 at 12:52 pm

Hicksville Alberta on 05.04.18 at 11:44 pm
One of my oilpatch kids moved out to Vancouver about two years ago and is making his way and even started a small business last June which seems to be starting to kick in a bit.

I talk with him occasionally and today we chatted for about three hours.

He is out a lot with his little business and meets and sees lots of people and sees lots of desperation around with little or no hope and lots just trying to live paycheck to paycheck and many still getting deeper in debt.

He lives with his girlfriend in a west end apartment on the 22nd floor and on January 1st, his New Year’s treat was to wake up to a big crashing noise and when he looked out the window, he saw that one of the tenants in his building had plunged out of the window of an apartment above him and landed on the roof of a store below, thus killing himself.

Didn’t even make the news or the papers, but it has been a life changing experience for my son. It still bothers him a lot.

He has a 79 year old neighbour on the same floor as his apartment and each night the neighbour takes an electric cord into the hall and plugs in for some power from the building’s meter for his suite. Each morning the cord is gone, only to return again at night.

That’s only a couple of things going on out there and there must be tons of stories that go untold each day.

So good on Horgan and Eby et al but they really need to dig up enough real dirt and start some serious prosecutions and asset seizures with lots of honest publicity.

_______

BC is as dirty and corrupt as govts come. The only difference between CanaDUHHHH and a banana republic is the AK-47. You will NEVER see the thousands and thousands of criminals, tax cheats, money launderers and thieves brought to justice. NEVER. Welcome to CanaDUHHHHH.

#119 Dan on 05.05.18 at 1:35 pm

Well there is a big difference between Elon Musk and Jeff Besos. Elon is a man from Mars with some Canadian experience. Besos is just a greedy greekos
(something lika a turk)

#120 Disgruntled on 05.05.18 at 1:39 pm

“So much for those geniuses who wander the steerage section of this blog telling you the cost of money will never rise. It did. It is. It continues. ”

Poloz will raise maximum one more time this year raising the boc Benchmark to 1.5%. That does Jack squat to the cost of borrowing for variable rate mortgages in Canada. I will remind you we live in Canada not the US.

#121 45north on 05.05.18 at 2:11 pm

DebtSlaveCreator: We’re in for a dramatic recession with rapid job loss leading to explosive deficits and a steadily collapsing currency and then for a sovereign debt crisis in 2020-2021 at the latest that is more likely than not going to end with the Bank of Canada being forced to make multiple shock rate increases to try to stop the CAD from dropping below 50¢ US.

Here’s the link to Laurie Campbell, CEO of Credit Canada. She says that people have taken out big HELOCs and cannot pay off the principal. They won’t be able to retire.

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/05/04/economy-facing-extended-downside-of-debt-mountain/

I think people over 65 fighting to keep their jobs will lead to disharmony in the workplace. I spent almost my entire working career in the Federal civil service. Ten years from retirement, I started to see younger men and women who could challenge me. I did everything I could to guide and encourage them because after all I was going to retire.

Add the rapid and steady cooling of climate due to the historic drop in the sun’s energy output and you’re looking at a wild rise in food prices starting late 2019-2025 that will be a huge issue

The Russian wheat crop will be much less because of cold weather. It’s possible to be right about increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the warming effect at high latitudes but be wrong about global warming. The global warming fan club assume the sun’s energy output as constant. I mean look outside – it’s the same as it always was.

#122 Gravy Train on 05.05.18 at 2:25 pm

#115 Reynolds531 on 05.05.18 at 12:10 pm
“Paint a full picture and some here might give you great advice.”

This may come as a shock to you, but I wasn’t asking for advice. I was simply bragging about the great interest rate I got from a mortgage broker. And then I got lambasted by everyone under the sun—admittedly, a slight exaggeration. :)

#123 Ace Goodheart on 05.05.18 at 8:40 pm

Re #119 Dan:

Interesting stuff about to come out on the TSLA front.

The “skateboard” of the model 3 is amazing. Ie the platform containing motor battery suspension wheels. They say it”s next gen stuff . Battery has cell to cell deviation that is so minimal they don’t know how to classify it. Like “alien” technology Musk raves about.

But….

Manufacturing.

They took an amazing platform, designed the body wrong, screwed up the mechanicals, and then tried to re-invent car manufacturing in a way that turned out disasterously wrong.

We will hear in a few weeks as to how badly things actually turned out.

My prediction is someone buys the TSLA carcass and actually builds the car that Elon dreamed about.

Two weeks and we will know.

#124 Steven Rowlandson on 05.05.18 at 9:18 pm

It seems someone thinks there are some greater fools to be had or priced out of Montreal.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/neglected-child-no-more-montreal-is-next-hot-housing-market-1.1071694

#125 Glenn on 05.06.18 at 12:45 am

Yet the labour force participation rate in US is still 4% below the peak in 2008 and labour force PR actually dropped .1% in this report which accounta for drop in unemployment rate.