No pity

Rudy’s a crusty business guy who has spent four decades buying and selling properties in the hinterland just north of The Big Smoke. Made a pot of money speculating on houses, apartment buildings and commercial properties. With the cunning of a country fox, he bailed on the last one about a year ago – when everyone swore gains were endless.

“Prices,” he told me Tuesday, “are down by thirty percent. And I don’t mean on just distressed stuff. Everything. A hard thirty. At least.”

To be clear, this is not the boonies. Not any more. Areas like Newmarket. Richmond Hill, Vaughan or Stouffville are now prime commutershed regions, serviced by wide highways and politicians with rapid transit expansion plans in their eyes. A year ago some of the biggest price gains in a bubbly time were happening up where the deer and groundhogs used to call home. Speculation was rampant. What this blog chronicled on Sunday – the Saga of Derek – was not isolated.

By the way, this is a cautionary tale. Events in the GTA burbs will be repeated in many places where real estate became an investment asset, snapped up by speculators rather than end users. Recall that several days ago we told half of all the condos bought in the region last year were snorfled by speckers – and at least 40% are being rented out for negative cash flow. So imagine what’s likely to happen next there, or in the Lower Mainland, or Whitby, or Hamilton.

Wizened Toronto broker John Pasalis had an interesting report on the rise and fall of the spec-heavy burbs this week. “One of the key signs of a housing bubble is when more and more people start to buy real estate strictly as an investment rather than as a place to live,” he reminds. “As a home buyer you want to be more cautious about buying in a neighbourhood that has a high number of investors. Looking at the areas that have had the steepest decline in prices during the first quarter of 2018 versus the first quarter of 2017, it’s no surprise that the areas that were once dominated by investors are showing the steepest price declines.”

So here is what the sales looked like in the upper GTA swath as the bubble built and as the speculators moved in, bigtime:

In those areas where the speculators moved in…

Source: Realosophy

Now we’re on the other side of the curve. The bubble’s burst. New investors are few and far between. Many of those speculators who moved in are now hurting, trying to move out. The hoods with the biggest price gains in 2016 and 2017 and seeing the largest price plops in 2018, with asking prices off 25-30%, and sale prices dipping even further. Places where most people bought to live, instead of tomake money (like Brampton) have suffered less of a shock. And recall that Toronto as a whole has seen valuations erode by 14%.

…house prices are now collapsing the most.

The lesson here is simple. When prices go up a lot, they usually come down a lot. Also if a property increases in value by 50%, from $800 to $1.2 million, a 33% drop in price will bring it down to $792,000. It seems a lot of people sitting on the real estate sidelines these days have failed to understand the math involved. Further decreases are also reasonable if you follow the eight-point seller-evisceration strategy laid out on this pathetic blog a few days ago.

Meanwhile, all is not happy in condo land, either. This week more than a thousand buyers in three honking big towers slated for one of the areas mentioned above – Vaughan – were punted. Liberty Development said its Cosmos condos will be the 11th area development murdered by market conditions in the last year, after the company failed to get the financing it wanted. Buyers are now swarming the media with stories of how unfair it is when you buy something that has not even been built after signing a contract that’s completely one-sided, without any legal counsel. Who knew anything could go wrong?

As stated often, all real estate is local. Houses in demand areas still sell briskly for big bucks. The kids are still devouring every new condo development that comes along with a  bicycle locker and has a hip name. But detacheds have stumbled badly in most markets. Overall, sales have dropped by a third. The national numbers to be released by CREA Friday morning won’t be pretty. And in some places, the gutters run red with the guts of gamblers. Mr. Market has no pity.

163 comments ↓

#1 SoggyShorts on 04.10.18 at 5:00 pm

#81 Re: Smartalox on 04.10.18 at 12:13 am
#61

Elliot st was sold in ’91 for $357K.
If they get it: +726% in 27 years.

8.14% per year, tax free.
Pretty good, better than the stock market, which is not tax-free.

https://www.propertyinsight.ca/8242-elliott-street-vancouver-bc-yghhxwyfwwt1
****************
How is 1.4m 726% of 350K?
Aside from that:
Even if it was a brand new build in 1991, 27 years means quite a lot in repairs. Roof, furnace, fence, flooring, paint, plumbing, etc etc.
Also if they didn’t buy it for cash, the first mortgage was at 12% interest. While rates did go down from there, the average for those 25 years was 7.37%. Making the interest paid over 400K.

It wasn’t a bad investment, but neither was it amazing imo. If it had been in any market other than Van/TO it would have been much worse.

#2 Willifred Gaitlund on 04.10.18 at 5:06 pm

Garth, what would Ford Nation do if Dougie gets elected? Would the spec tax go down the tubes? Just wondering how big June’s election will have on the markets.

#3 Guy in Calgary on 04.10.18 at 5:06 pm

How does the broker that provided that chart know what percentage of purchases were speculators? Where can one see this data?

#4 grumpy panda on 04.10.18 at 5:10 pm

It has been a long time (early 80s) since we saw people lose their homes.

#5 Warren Buffett on 04.10.18 at 5:14 pm

PRICE is what you pay….

VALUE is what you get….

KNOW the difference !!!

#6 Duffy on 04.10.18 at 5:25 pm

Speculating in real estate towards the end of a cycle can be nasty, usually caused by failing to listen to the wisdom of their elders . . . . . . I’m sure Sabre tooth tigers were pleased some of the youngsters were not good listener’s many centuries ago . . . . . the Bank of Sabre, invest accordingly.

#7 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 5:30 pm

House next to the one I sold in April 2017 for 950k in Shlong Branch on the market. It’s identical but not as cute as mine was. Listed for 899k let’s see how long it sits and what the final prices is.
I’m calling between 750k to 790k

#8 Smartalox on 04.10.18 at 5:31 pm

Comrade Horgan announced today, a new Rental Housing Task Force to advise on how to improve security and ‘fairness’ for renters and landlords throughout the Province.

The task force is to be headed by NDP MLA and long time housing activist Spencer Chandra Herbert, whom Horgan called “a strong advocate” for renters. Chandra-Herbert, for his part stated “this is work I’ve taken on since before I was an MLA” .

Yup. Google that name, and if you’re an amateur landlord in BC, you should start thinking seriously about listing your rental properties for sale.

#9 crdt on 04.10.18 at 5:35 pm

How the mighty wheel of fortune turns… The inertia looked to be unstoppable only one year ago. I cannot imagine someone paying 30% more year over and possibly bragging about it. Hopefully people will be much quieter and obnoxious going forward, maybe we will not have to hear them bragging as much…

#10 Stan Brooks on 04.10.18 at 5:36 pm

No mercy for the Canadian house market. Die, sucker!


“Prices,” he told me Tuesday, “are down by thirty percent. And I don’t mean on just distressed stuff. Everything. A hard thirty. At least.”

As I said, 70 % down is a given, 80 % most likely.

Pleased by the CAD performance lately. Keep the sucker up so I can convert all of it to Euro at preferable exchange rate.

#11 Ian on 04.10.18 at 5:36 pm

Hard 30% to open…20-40% more to follow!!

I predict Home Capital is below $2 by year end.

#12 Stan Brooks on 04.10.18 at 5:38 pm

Math, percentages etc. Who cares?

Housing is going to 300 k USD, 250 k Euro for SFH in GTA.
Period.

As for prices in Poloz peso frankly I do not care.

#13 Andrew Woburn on 04.10.18 at 5:38 pm

– Nikola Tesla predicted the smartphone in 1926

https://kottke.org/18/04/nikola-tesla-predicted-the-smartphone-in-192

#14 waiting on 04.10.18 at 5:39 pm

How much has the market appreciated since the 2009 low? If it cannot go back to atleast the 2009 lows it will be of no use to those who have waited long for the market to come to historical average.

#15 Willy H on 04.10.18 at 5:39 pm

If that speculator bar graph is accurate we are some real deep shit in the GTA.

Not sure I agree with Rudy that we are seeing a “hard thirty” percent drop in any market north of the 407. No doubt there are some one-off desperate over-leveraged sellers here and there, but not commonplace at this point.

Aurora, Newmarket, Richmond Hill and Vaughan – ground zero for this collapse and no surprise. It’s all about the price point folks. Almost every detached home in these soulless traffic grid-locked burbs was selling to vast herds of Greater Fool’s for just under or well over $1 million.

Totally unsustainable and the price drop has only just begun!

Interesting that we now have an economic perfect storm brewing for most home buyers:
>personal consumer debt continues to spiral out of control
>interest rates going up and up and up this year!
>and the price of gas heading to $1.40ish/litre – nearing the 2012 all time high

I won’t even mention B20!

#16 AGuyInVancouver on 04.10.18 at 5:41 pm

…Wizened Toronto broker John Pasalis had an interesting report on the rise and fall of the spec-heavy burbs this week. “One of the key signs of a housing bubble is when more and more people start to buy real estate strictly as an investment rather than as a place to live,” he reminds..
_ _ _
Not necessarily true anymore, according to Bloomberg:
“..“All of this suggests that house prices are starting to behave more like the prices of financial assets, such as stocks and bonds, which are influenced by investors elsewhere in the world,” IMF researchers Claudio Raddatz Kiefer and Jane Dokko wrote in a blog post Tuesday, based on analysis in the fund’s Global Financial Stability Report..”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-10/london-home-prices-now-offer-clues-for-buyers-in-new-york-tokyo

#17 Gyga on 04.10.18 at 5:44 pm

Looked it up at Richmond Hill, insane prices.Pretty much any detached is a million plus. What a joke.

#18 Ian on 04.10.18 at 5:47 pm

One thing that should be pointed out…in the GTA bear from 89-96, it took seven years for median price to go down 33%.

This bear, it’s only taken one year in a lot of places.

This ain’t gonna be good.

#19 Stan Brooks on 04.10.18 at 5:49 pm

That picture, of the guy literally cutting the platform he is staying on summarizes pretty well this pathetic place.

It is, over folks. The insanity is over finally.

Now comes the FEAR!

Let the fireworks/feuerwerks begin!

I will absolutely enjoy this one.

#20 Stan Brooks on 04.10.18 at 5:53 pm

#17 Gyga on 04.10.18 at 5:44 pm
Looked it up at Richmond Hill, insane prices.Pretty much any detached is a million plus. What a joke.

========================

Insane prices in a place inhibited by idiots. What is so surprising? It would be surprising if the prices have been normal, i.e 25 % of current prices.

————————

#18 Ian on 04.10.18 at 5:47 pm
One thing that should be pointed out…in the GTA bear from 89-96, it took seven years for median price to go down 33%.

This bear, it’s only taken one year in a lot of places.

This ain’t gonna be good.

—————-

Oh, this is going to be pretty steep and pretty long decline

You are almost at your limit. – Garth

#21 dakkie on 04.10.18 at 5:54 pm

DELETED

#22 For those about to flop... on 04.10.18 at 5:55 pm

Yeah, and I have tulips to sell ya!

No seriously,I have tulips to sell.

I have to make up the shortfall in my portfolio somehow.

Mark the date and tell me when this happens in Toronto…

M43BC

https://m.imgur.com/6ns9mgm

#23 Jimmy on 04.10.18 at 5:58 pm

Prices are great now.
I’m buying two condos to rent out just because my realtor is hot.

#24 Stan Brooks on 04.10.18 at 6:01 pm

You are almost at your limit. – Garth

True, finishing my 4th shot for the day after reading this,
cheers.

#25 Shawn on 04.10.18 at 6:06 pm

How does Niagara fit in all of this? New builds still seem expensive.

#26 HappyTOMil on 04.10.18 at 6:06 pm

Biked on Adelaide St in Toronto at 6:30 am, saw quite a lineup in front of closed glass box sales office…I guess some more not-yet-built shoe boxes will find their happy owners, or should I say ‘prudent investors’?

#27 Mattl on 04.10.18 at 6:08 pm

Market couldn’t have killed liberty, those units are all sold and the slow down in housing should help them with trades costs and availability. Why would financing be hard to find on a full subscribed building in a strong condo market?

The folks that bought there believe that a strong market for condos is why the project was pulled ( which also makes no sense)

#28 I’m stupid on 04.10.18 at 6:09 pm

What’s the best strategy when you have a mortgage? Should you kill it as quickly as possible then start investing or do both? If you do both in what percentage? What’s

#29 Guy in Calgary on 04.10.18 at 6:14 pm

#28 I’m stupid on 04.10.18 at 6:09 pm
What’s the best strategy when you have a mortgage? Should you kill it as quickly as possible then start investing or do both? If you do both in what percentage? What’s
—————————————————————–

Depends on:

1. Tolerance to debt
2. Current age/retirement savings/what you expect in retirement
3. Income stability
4. Risk tolerance
5. Interest rate on mortgage
6. Balance owing on mortgage
7. Monthly cash flow

You are not asking a one size fits all question.

#30 I’m stupid on 04.10.18 at 6:14 pm

#14 waiting

Did you not make any money in almost 10 years? It’s ridiculous to suggest prices will return to 2009 levels. 2014-2015 is possible and probably likely (inflation adjusted) but it will melt for a while.

#31 isuckless on 04.10.18 at 6:17 pm

Sorry doomsayers this 30% correction is all you will get. Maybe 5% more as correction overshoots a bit but that is all.
Don’t call me realtor as I am not. There is no crash coming and people who are deep in debt are going to hunker down, refinance and weather this correction. Banks don’t want crash as it complicates their operations. Only renters and unsuccessful investors want crash.
BTW I expect this price increase to start creeping into Ottawa and later to Quebec

#32 Ronaldo on 04.10.18 at 6:19 pm

Well that took long enough.

#33 Victor V on 04.10.18 at 6:22 pm

Stress tests pushing one in three homebuyers to forgo home purchase: survey

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/stress-tests-pushing-one-in-three-homebuyers-to-forego-home-purchase-survey

Tougher mortgage stress testing rules are pushing some Canadian homebuyers to lower their expectations for a new home and others to opt out of buying altogether.

In a sign of the ongoing role government intervention is playing in the market, one in three Canadian homebuyers said they had decided to forgo a home purchase in light of the new mortgage qualification rules that came into effect January 1, according to a new Re/Max survey conducted by Leger.

A quarter of buyers compromised on the size of their home, while 18 per cent made concessions on its location.

#34 Howard on 04.10.18 at 6:24 pm

Investment property in … Newmarket.

Good one.

Did they also buy some magic beans to plant in the front lawn?

#35 Bibi on 04.10.18 at 6:32 pm

Rudy and Derek are just the two really nice guys you meet every day. We really have it good here!

#36 Ace Goodheart on 04.10.18 at 6:38 pm

RE: “Buyers are now swarming the media with stories of how unfair it is when you buy something that has not even been built after signing a contract that’s completely one-sided, without any legal counsel. Who knew anything could go wrong?”

Go read a mortgage contract. No one ever does. If you think that new build contracts are one sided and unfair (they are) you really seriously need to read a bank mortgage agreement. Just, like, for fun. Or sh*ts and giggles. So you can say “I would never, ever, ever sign that. It is, like, totally unfair”.

And yet, millions do sign these things, every year. And NOBODY reads them.

#37 Penny Henny on 04.10.18 at 6:40 pm

#7 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 5:30 pm
House next to the one I sold in April 2017 for 950k in Shlong Branch on the market. It’s identical but not as cute as mine was. Listed for 899k let’s see how long it sits and what the final prices is.
I’m calling between 750k to 790k
////////////////////

Smokie as I said before, under 1 million is hot again.
This one is listed with Comfree so that is a minus. Not as nice as yours, that is a minus too. But they no longer have you as a neighbour so that is a big plus.

#38 Bibi on 04.10.18 at 6:44 pm

#19 Stan Brooks

Stan, you seem like a smart guy, can’t be from around here. Here we have Mumbai lifestyle with Luxembourg prices. What a freaking joke!

#39 NotLegalAdvice on 04.10.18 at 6:49 pm

Is there a possibility that Brampton “speculators” are just naming their family members (son, father, daughter, etc) as primary residents to avoid actually being seen as speculators?

Also, based on this logic, peel region will not be declining too much in house prices because there aren’t a whole lot of speculators compared to other regions.

#40 not so liquid in calgary on 04.10.18 at 6:50 pm

@ Andrew Woburn on 04.10.18 at 5:38 pm

—————————————————————————————

you’re an ass. the kottke.org link is bogus

#41 The Secret Code on 04.10.18 at 6:50 pm

If you want to be rich like me, pay attention.

A tsunami of rentals and legislation tilted in favor of renters is hitting the BC rental market.

That is why I bankrolled my Kelowna rental property at 8% under peak market value that peaked last year.

Wait until this winter.

Plan accordingly.

#42 John on 04.10.18 at 6:55 pm

Not sure I understand you Garth, you say that when prices go up a lot they go down a lot, but in Vancouver they’ve more than tripled in a decade, yet you say there will be no massive correction.

#43 john m on 04.10.18 at 6:57 pm

When you have a generation of buyers with no life experiences living off their parents purse strings and making million dollar investments…what could possibly go wrong?

#44 Arctic Gringo: Qalunaaq on 04.10.18 at 6:58 pm

@ #25 Shawn:

The Niagara Region is losing ground. Fort Erie is seeing slight average price appreciation, but a decline in sale count and an increase in average days on markets (most be the horses at the race track). Other communities are experiencing similar market conditions: year-to-year average stagnate prices, average sales count down, average DOM up, inventory stagnating. As a region, sales-to-new listing ratios peaked near 1.0 in early 2016, but has slowly fallen back down to 2013 through 2015 levels of 0.6 (as of March 2018).

The Niagara Association of Realtors released March 2018 statistics today, and the President’s statement, “… The Niagara Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reported 627 property sales processed through the NAR Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) system in March. This represents a 32.07% decrease in sales compared to March of last year. The residential average sale price of $401,284 was 0.47% lower than last March. The average days on market increased from 27 to 36 in the residential freehold market and increased from 30 to 37 in the condominium market. “An encouraging point in these March statistics is the number of new listings. A lack of inventory has been a challenge for months now, and it is great to see that more properties are becoming available. The next few months should be busy, as that inventory is bought up,” said Randy Mulder…”

#45 tccontrarian on 04.10.18 at 7:01 pm

“As stated often, all real estate is local. Houses in demand areas still sell briskly for big bucks. The kids are still devouring every new condo development that comes along with a bicycle locker and has a hip name. But detacheds have stumbled badly in most markets. Overall, sales have dropped by a third.”
———————————————————–

That’s for sure, as not all areas will correct in tandem – just as not all sectors/indeces fall simultaneously in a bear market.
In an equity market parallel, the FAANGs are equivalent to condos – ie. last to show signs of weakness.
But, more recently, even they have started to falter (smaller cap represented by the Russell 2000 showed weakness first). There are always leaders and laggards in a major trend change.

Eventually, I’m anticipating, being mostly in cash (and equivalents), will be an advantageous position to be in – in order to be able to scoop up the deals as they develop, whether in RE or Financial markets.

TCC

#46 Phil Indablanque on 04.10.18 at 7:10 pm

Strictly anecdotal… Friend’s sister listed a townhouse on the Danforth for 899k and vacated on the advise of the agent. The agent looked after staging inside and out, sold the sizzle and not the steak and it went for…..400,000 OVER asking. 1.3 Million. 6 bidders. The new owners were jumping for joy like they had won the lottery. Sis is on her way to Ottawa to twice the house that cost what the GTA buyer paid over asking. Who won again??

#47 MSM Free Zone on 04.10.18 at 7:11 pm

No worries, Doug (I hate government and taxes) Fraud, the serial-lying fake anti-elitist and fake champion of the middle/working class, whose real claim to fame is balancing beam scales and not cheque books, has seemingly already been bought and paid for by both CBA and CREA, announcing, if elected (if you can even find him this election), he will scrap the Ontario Specker Tax, much to the delight of the Big Six and REALTURD®’s everywhere.

There is no speculation tax in Ontario. – Garth

#48 Kelowna BC Foreign Investment Evidence on 04.10.18 at 7:20 pm

DELETED (libel)

#49 Skipper on 04.10.18 at 7:21 pm

#25 Shawn on 04.10.18 at 6:06 pm
How does Niagara fit in all of this? New builds still seem expensive.
#####################
Not Expensive, Overpriced.

#50 Victor on 04.10.18 at 7:21 pm

I wish there were a rule against extreme speculation when rates are low. Like, if they go below 4% the difference between 4% and the rates is a tax those who bought investment property pay on the remaining mortgage. For new homes it can be list price minus all payments made. First time home buyers will not pay. Those who do not have mortgage are ok. Those who want to move up will pay the tax for few months until they sell.

#51 Elliot st on 04.10.18 at 7:26 pm

#1 SoggyShorts

How is 1.4m 726% of 350K?

Because it’s listed for $3M not $1.4M
Like I said: *if* they get it.

Good point about the interest rate.
If it was mortgaged, the investment gains were far less.

#52 Buckwheat on 04.10.18 at 7:27 pm

#27 Mattl on 04.10.18 at 6:08 pm
Market couldn’t have killed liberty, those units are all sold and the slow down in housing should help them with trades costs and availability. Why would financing be hard to find on a full subscribed building in a strong condo market?

The folks that bought there believe that a strong market for condos is why the project was pulled ( which also makes no sense)

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Word is that the builder will be able to increase the number of floors per each tower. Nothing to do with financing, eventhough that is the excuse Liberty is using.

#53 Kelowna BC Foreign Investment Evidence Part 2 on 04.10.18 at 7:29 pm

DELETED

#54 RentYVR on 04.10.18 at 7:29 pm

Funny, it doesn’t feel like a down market to those Cosmos condos buyers now does it? They are upset because prices have moved up so much that to buy a comparable condo will now cost them $100k more!

I have stated clearly that condo prices have increased in both the GTA and YVR about 25% in a year. What is happening with detached will happen in that market segment, but not yet. – Garth

#55 jess on 04.10.18 at 7:31 pm

Banks still do plenty of subprime lending
Apr. 10, 2018 11:59 AM ET|About: Bank of America Corporation (BAC)|By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor

via WSJ
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3344716-banks-still-plenty-subprime-lending

#56 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.18 at 7:33 pm

@#127 Floppie
“Paging Crowdie to the blog…”
+++++

Interesting.
I live not too far from the FD Station that would have responded.
The Fire Trucks didnt wake me up?!? WTF?
My self induced, alcohol induced, narcolepsy seems to be working. (thumbs UP!).

Timely posting.
I talked to my nephew yesterday( he’s a fireman) and he mentioned that the Surrey FD is seeing a lot less “Vacant house – unexplained fires”…
The reason?
You cant get a HELOC on a piece of dirt but you CAN get a line of credit on a Crack Shack.

#57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.18 at 7:37 pm

@#38 Bibi
“Here we have Mumbai lifestyle with Luxembourg prices.”
+++++

No no no
You’re doing it all wrong.
What you want are Surrey prices with Lunenberg lifestyle…..

#58 Honey Dripper on 04.10.18 at 7:39 pm

Yes, all RE is local. Truer words have never been spoken.
Here in the heart of Potato country you could buy a townhouse for 150K ten years ago. They now sell for 350K and they’re 35 years old.

Forget SFD outta site and out of my snack bracket. New developments start in the low 500s in the middle of fricken nowhere. It’s fugly!

#59 Jimbo on 04.10.18 at 7:39 pm

Math problem: Billy, a millenial, bought a condo for $1 million. The condo appreciated by 30% and the next year it depreciated by 30%. What does billy have?

a) it’s obvious, a million dollar condo
b) 910,000 dollar condo
c) Happiness, Billy has happiness.

#60 MSM Free Zone on 04.10.18 at 7:41 pm

There is no speculation tax in Ontario. – Garth
____________________________________

Speculation Tax / Foreign Buyer Tax, different names, same effect.

Obviously, the majority of foreign buyers had no intention of living on Canadian Real Estate.

“…It’s a puzzling statement. “How that can possibly be a top priority, especially given very compelling evidence that said tax played a huge role in deflating the Toronto housing bubble in the past year, is a mystery,” wrote BMO chief economist Doug Porter in a recent note to clients. Well, perhaps not that mysterious. Ford does have a habit of speaking first and thinking later….”

As the government itself concluded, foreign buyers have played an inconsequential role in the GTA real estate market. – Garth

#61 Brett on 04.10.18 at 7:45 pm

Garth, if the Jets win the cup will you analyze Winnipeg prices ?

#62 Darren on 04.10.18 at 7:46 pm

There are still no price decreases in the Niagara area. Does anyone have any input on if and when we will start seeing the effects here? Thanks.

#63 John C on 04.10.18 at 7:46 pm

“The bubble has burst”. Do you think this is the end of house price falling or just the beginning?

#64 RentYVR on 04.10.18 at 7:56 pm

“I have stated clearly that condo prices have increased in both the GTA and YVR about 25% in a year. What is happening with detached will happen in that market segment, but not yet. – Garth”

It’s all relative I suppose. Markets are down on a year-over-year basis but still up huge over the 3/5/10 year mark. But certainly if you’re buying today you need to have some serious cojones !

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.18 at 7:59 pm

@#93 Smoking man
“Made it to the bottom of a 40 ounces in one sitting….”
+++++
Pffffft.
Amateur.
I do that so I can go to sleep every night( Fire Hall ya know)
Type to me when you can drink that much AND be lucid at the keyboard ( or in your case the keybored).
God Bless Smoking Man.
And on that note the Fire Hall apparently just got another call…….one less insured crack shack is no loss to society

#66 Bibi on 04.10.18 at 8:00 pm

#63 John C on 04.10.18 at 7:46 pm
“The bubble has burst”. Do you think this is the end of house price falling or just the beginning
============================
It just started my friend. The end is not near.

#67 Trumpocalypse2018 on 04.10.18 at 8:01 pm

TRUMP HUNKERS IN HIS BUNKER !!!

https://www.npr.org/2018/04/10/601268180/trump-cancels-trip-as-he-decides-on-response-to-alleged-chemical-attack-in-syria

Unprecedented, Trump cancels trip to South America at the last moment.

He is desperate to create a distraction from his unraveling inner world.

War with Syria?

Firing Rosenstein, then Mueller?

Yes and yes.

Russia warns of ‘grave repercussions’.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/09/russia-us-syria-chemical-weapon-attack

War starts in spring.

PREPARE.

#68 maka on 04.10.18 at 8:12 pm

Math problem: Billy, a millenial, bought a condo for $1 million. The condo appreciated by 30% and the next year it depreciated by 30%. What does billy have?

a) it’s obvious, a million dollar condo
b) 910,000 dollar condo
c) Happiness, Billy has happiness.

d) Balls

#69 Re: Jimbo on 04.10.18 at 8:14 pm

#59 Jimbo

Answer: A $910K condo (1.3 * 0.7 )

However, Billy could very well have bought into a spacious 1978 four-story con-dominium.

Three years later, the land gets rezoned for a 30 story tower, and a developer managed to get 81% of Billy’s strata on-board for a sale.

Billy is forced to sell his share for $2.6M.

Poor Billy, the Millennial.

#70 toronto1 on 04.10.18 at 8:18 pm

yes the north burbs of GTA are really getting hit hard. the reduction in price is unprecedented and so will be what is yet to come.

when the smart money pulls out (developers) watch out…… these people have smarter people who advise them….

Developers must be seeing pricing levels dropping to pre construction levels to pull out.

its not mainstream yet but the negative RE news is starting to get out there in the wild, this will only negatively effect RE going forward.

for the market to stabilize, interest rates have to at best remain were they are or drop, but we all know rates are starting to rise……

Garth is right though a bit early there is a small window now- till approx winter 17-18 that interest rates rise and that inflation will be stabilize prices.

personally i see inventory rising into the spring market- the more negative news makes its way out into the public domain, the less buyers will buy causing further price erosion. We need to see the panic first before prices stabilize- no panic out there yet- some desperation but no panic

#71 lee bow on 04.10.18 at 8:20 pm

#62 Darren

Nobody is forced to sell in Niagara, no excessive mortgages and great positive cash flows for landlords.

#72 theoryAndPractice on 04.10.18 at 8:23 pm

bubbles , busts , recessions, depressions, inflation ,deflation…..

The Money Masters (1996) :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBk5XV1ExoQ

#73 Ace Goodheart on 04.10.18 at 8:31 pm

#63 John C on 04.10.18 at 7:46 pm
“The bubble has burst”. Do you think this is the end of house price falling or just the beginning?”

From what I can see, just the beginning.

I never put my money into anything unless I figure I can get more money back out.

I would not put my money into a house right now, anywhere other than Montreal.

I am usually right.

#74 Big Kahuna on 04.10.18 at 8:34 pm

DELETED

#75 our pal val on 04.10.18 at 8:44 pm

OK EVERYBODY WHERE ARE WE ON THIS GRAPH….

https://www.google.ca/search?q=graph+of+the+psychology+of+real+estate+boom+bust+cycle&rlz=1C1CHBD_enCA765CA765&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=AFlLq5RFE7zNCM%253A%252Co3cpdzvzN46HfM%252C_&usg=__DSHtgB8C_wLoOE0bNOMcHEA22Fg%3D&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiF54uW_rDaAhWE3YMKHcQvDc8Q9QEIjgEwCA#imgrc=AFlLq5RFE7zNCM:

#76 our pal val on 04.10.18 at 8:46 pm

BETTER TRY THIS ONE…WHERE ARE WE ON THE GRAPH?

https://www.google.ca/search?q=graph+of+the+psychology+of+real+estate+boom+bust+cycle&rlz=1C1CHBD_enCA765CA765&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=AFlLq5RFE7zNCM%253A%252Co3cpdzvzN46HfM%252C_&usg=__DSHtgB8C_wLoOE0bNOMcHEA22Fg%3D&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiF54uW_rDaAhWE3YMKHcQvDc8Q9QEIjgEwCA#imgrc=o3zabCaCZcQ7VM:

#77 Adrian on 04.10.18 at 8:55 pm

Garth, you talk a lot about human psychology, and I don’t want to dismiss it, but we might as well be talking about physics, here. Bank lending effectively controls prices, since commercial banks create money out of thin air when they give people ‘loans.’ Prices are a function of the amount of new mortgage debt in any given year, and price changes are a function of its differential.

Professor Steve Keen hasn’t updated his graphs in almost a year so you can’t see Canada’s price drop (he said he’s using an ancient and clunky version of MathCAD when I asked about it) but the empirical correlation between price changes and mortgage debt acceleration is very strong in most countries, especially since the expansion of finance in the nineties. See for yourself:

http://www.profstevekeen.com/data-on-credit-employment-and-house-prices/

#78 DON on 04.10.18 at 8:56 pm

Gotta love mainstream news:

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/cracks-starting-to-show-in-canadian-credit-quality-rbc-says

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canadas-latest-indicator-cliches-it-interest-rates-are-going-up-soon

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/eurozone-recession
Commentary: Few seem to have noticed it yet, but there are worrying signs Europe’s exporting powerhouse is slowing sharply

Which one of these things doesn’t belong here?

#79 Unhinged Trader on 04.10.18 at 8:57 pm

Wouldn’t worry about real estate fellas.

Trump and his Neo-Con handlers are about to plunge us into a nuclear fire storm.

How does plywood behave exposed to 100,000,000 degrees Celsius?

#80 AGuyInVancouver on 04.10.18 at 8:58 pm

No pity? I think some of the hard hearts around here need to read the article in the current Vancouver Courier plaintively titled “Vancouver’s realtors are people too”
http://www.vancourier.com/real-estate/vancouver-s-realtors-are-people-too-1.23261657

#81 Gravy Train on 04.10.18 at 8:58 pm

#74 Big Kahuna on 04.10.18 at 8:34 pm
DELETED

I didn’t quite catch that! Try again? :)

#82 Barb on 04.10.18 at 9:00 pm

Comrade Horgan will eviscerate landlords in B.C.

After all, it was the NDP who brought in the Rentalsman (Landlord and Tenant Act).

He’s not interested that a certain percentage (albeit low) of renters absolutely trash the place…AFTER you can finally get the bums out. Generally costs up to 10x what the “security” (damage) deposit was.

#83 DON on 04.10.18 at 9:02 pm

This seems fitting for today’s blog.

“….He said, “Son, I’ve made my life out of readin’ people’s faces, And knowin’ what their cards were by the way they held their eyes. So if you don’t mind my sayin’, I can see you’re out of aces. For a taste of your whiskey I’ll give you some advice. ”

So I handed him my bottle and he drank down my last swallow. Then he bummed a cigarette and asked me for a light. And the night got deathly quiet, and his face lost all expression. Said, “If you’re gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.

You got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em, Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table. There’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealin’s done.

Now Ev’ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away and knowing what to keep. ‘Cause ev’ry hand’s a winner and ev’ry hand’s a loser,And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep…”

Mr. Kenny Rogers Folks.

#84 Fiendish Thingy on 04.10.18 at 9:04 pm

Got a flyer yesterday inviting folks to register for yet-to-be-built, luxury townhomes starting at the low, low, bargain price of $549k, for only 10% down.

Where is this great investment? Mission , BC , where a 3bed/2 bath , 2000sqft detached house can be had for around $650k, sometimes even less.

Someone clearly didn’t do their homework…

#85 DON on 04.10.18 at 9:12 pm

#8 Smartalox on 04.10.18 at 5:31 pm

Comrade Horgan announced today, a new Rental Housing Task Force to advise on how to improve security and ‘fairness’ for renters and landlords throughout the Province.

The task force is to be headed by NDP MLA and long time housing activist Spencer Chandra Herbert, whom Horgan called “a strong advocate” for renters. Chandra-Herbert, for his part stated “this is work I’ve taken on since before I was an MLA” .

Yup. Google that name, and if you’re an amateur landlord in BC, you should start thinking seriously about listing your rental properties for sale.
**************

I would be more worried about the CRA. They seems to be on the search for money…deficits and all! An untapped resource.

#86 Chaddywack on 04.10.18 at 9:19 pm

It’s funny….in Vancouver condo prices have popped and realtors are saying that now with detached falling and condos rising it’s an easy move-up for condo buyers.

The problem is, what first time buyer is going to take that $900k one bedroom off their hands in order to move up to a house……

#87 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.18 at 9:21 pm

@#67 Tumps Apothecary List
“TRUMP HUNKERS IN HIS BUNKER !!!”
++++++
Not bad!
I’m a little jealous I didnt think of that little “ditty”.

#88 Editrix on 04.10.18 at 9:24 pm

Sorry, but I’m suspicious of the Cosmos Condos collapse. It is near the Vaughan town centre with the new subway station. Like the Sterling Road condo that went down a couple of months ago, I predict they will both be on the market very soon, rebranded, at a much higher price.

Something similar happened near Sterling a couple of years ago. People bought into a church conversion at Perth and Wallace, were given their money back and were allowed to buy back in at higher prices.

https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/11/20/from-dream-home-to-unholy-mess.html

#89 Ex-Cowtown on 04.10.18 at 9:32 pm

Just caught Horgan whining about Texas based Kinder Morgan “undermining” the federation. I guess it’s beyond his ken to understand that hundreds of millions dark US $$$$ are pouring into the anti-pipeline fight.

Suzuki, the Tides Foundation, Greenpeace, Sierra Club are all meddling in Canadian politics in a manner that would have them jailed in the US under their Foreign Agents Registry Act.

Too bad Mr’s Dressup is too gutless to implement similar legislation like FARA in Canada. This illegal and dark US $$$ would dry up and we’d see things settle down real quick.

#90 Willy H on 04.10.18 at 9:37 pm

We are having a cold, wet and windy spring in central Canada with unseasonably low temperatures and a depressing dump of snow in central Ontario.

Certainly not your typical April house-hunting weather.

It will be interesting to see what impact this has on the housing market and consumer spending in general.

#91 The real Kip on 04.10.18 at 9:40 pm

Plenty of drama tonight!

#92 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 9:41 pm

If Trump lights up Syria he’s going to lose a big chunk of his base. Including me.

John Bolts first day on the job. Neocons are back.
Why he hired him is beyond any logic.

#93 Prophet of Doom! on 04.10.18 at 9:51 pm

Right now I am a little more concerned about this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-10/alert-issued-syria-air-strike-within-hours-russia-relcates-military-helicopters

“There is some good news: according to the Pentagon Press Parking Index (PPPI) strikes against Syria tonight are unlikely:

@HansNichols
Rest easy, world. The Pentagon Press Parking Index (PPPI) indicates that strikes against Syria tonight are unlikely.

But just in case, you may want to grab your popcorn… and if you live near a military installation, you may not need a microwave.”

Damn I should’ve gone to Costco today. My stockpiles are way to low for this sort of thing. And the liquor store.

#94 Zapstrap on 04.10.18 at 10:11 pm

#89 Ex-Cowtown on 04.10.18 at 9:32 pm
Too bad Mr’s Dressup is too gutless to implement similar legislation like FARA in Canada. This illegal and dark US $$$ would dry up and we’d see things settle down real quick.

Don’t forget his old man brought in the war measures act. And fingered B.C.

#95 millmech on 04.10.18 at 10:33 pm

#31
You can hunker down but when there is no work to pay the bills then what.
The amount of people in real estate construction as self employed/contract tradesmen who live job to job with no safety net is huge. They are use to big wages or contracts and once the contraction really hits they will layoff and downsize ASAP(no EI either). The next step to try and keep afloat will be to undercut each other and we know how that ends.
I remember the last downturn and the most common comment from the people was “it was like someone flicked a switch, everything just stopped overnight”

#96 ben on 04.10.18 at 10:37 pm

Good grief, some people saying this is the bottom. Is everything just “sentiment” to you people? A mysterious shift up and down?

Prices went up when they cut rates. They went down when they raised them. They are talking about raising them more. It’s not even a case of “you do the math”.

We don’t know if they will follow through on raising, or by how much, but we can see the driver.

#97 Duke on 04.10.18 at 10:45 pm

#31 isuckless on 04.10.18 at 6:17 pm
Sorry doomsayers this 30% correction is all you will get. Maybe 5% more as correction overshoots a bit but that is all.
Don’t call me realtor as I am not. There is no crash coming and people who are deep in debt are going to hunker down, refinance and weather this correction. Banks don’t want crash as it complicates their operations. Only renters and unsuccessful investors want crash.
BTW I expect this price increase to start creeping into Ottawa and later to Quebec

=================

You must be the guy with maxed out HELOC.

#98 Nick B on 04.10.18 at 10:47 pm

I enjoy reading you blog but I’m surprised you believe it’s now time to buy into some of these markets. I feel we are in the first or second inning of a real estate correction. I don’t believe multi-year bubbles burst in 12 months. There is no catalyst for a recovery in my mind unless you believe a soft landing is in order. 14% across The Big Smoke is a soft landing in my opinion. Interest rates are going up and the trend is not a buyers friend. If you plan on staying in the house 20 yrs, then maybe buying now would be ok. Well be interesting to watch.

#99 tccontrarian on 04.10.18 at 11:21 pm

#31 isuckless on 04.10.18 at 6:17 pm
Sorry doomsayers this 30% correction is all you will get. Maybe 5% more as correction overshoots a bit but that is all.
Don’t call me realtor as I am not. There is no crash coming and people who are deep in debt are going to hunker down, refinance and weather this correction. Banks don’t want crash as it complicates their operations. Only renters and unsuccessful investors want crash.
BTW I expect this price increase to start creeping into Ottawa and later to Quebec

=================

You must be the guy with maxed out HELOC.
————————————————————

Haha…

Is it a coincidence that the first 3 letters of HELOC is HEL(L)?
Or better still, HELL LOCK (and throw away the key?)

TCC

#100 Dead Cat Bounce on 04.10.18 at 11:21 pm

#89 Ex-Cowtown on 04.10.18 at 9:32 pm
Just caught Horgan whining about Texas based Kinder Morgan “undermining” the federation. I guess it’s beyond his ken to understand that hundreds of millions dark US $$$$ are pouring into the anti-pipeline fight.

Suzuki, the Tides Foundation, Greenpeace, Sierra Club are all meddling in Canadian politics in a manner that would have them jailed in the US under their Foreign Agents Registry Act.

Too bad Mr’s Dressup is too gutless to implement similar legislation like FARA in Canada. This illegal and dark US $$$ would dry up and we’d see things settle down real quick.
——————————————————————
I heard that the Russians are also contributing big money to the protesters, they don’t want the pipe line to go in either.

#101 Ian on 04.10.18 at 11:24 pm

#77 Adrian

Steve Keen is interesting, he mentions a guy Richard Vague whose insight is that private debt growth is what causes all the big financial s-storms, not public debt. I’ve been trying to get Vague’s book but no success. Do you know about him?

If so Canada is in for one massive s-storm.

#102 biggest bubble on 04.10.18 at 11:28 pm

By this calcuation (more speckers = more drop) pretty much all of the GVRD is set for a HUGE collapse. Everyone you talk to out here has a least 1 extra house. The guy I rent a parking spot from downtown has 11 (houses).

I still think 60% drop is not impossible. Will it collapse the economy along with it? I don’t see how it couldn’t.

Been moving my income sources and investments out of the area for years now.

#103 Victor V on 04.10.18 at 11:29 pm

Sold your home? CRA may penalize you if you fail to report it

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/household-finances/article-sold-your-home-cra-may-penalize-you-if-you-fail-to-report-it/?click=sf_globefb

The Canada Revenue Agency is getting tough with people who fail to comply with new rules requiring the routine sale of a home to be reported, even when there’s zero tax owing.

If you don’t report the sale of a principal residence on your income tax return, you could be subject to a fine of as much as $8,000. And something else to keep in mind: Normally, CRA may reassess your tax returns going back three years; with the reporting of a sale of a home, there’s no limit on how long CRA can wait to reassess you.

#104 Fish on 04.10.18 at 11:48 pm

@#98

you are not alone, I agree , watch and see

BTW Garth thankyou for the post

#105 Mr_Silbergleit on 04.11.18 at 12:12 am

More Bad News for Mortgage Renewals:
https://twitter.com/Mr_Silbergleit/status/983700592643129345

#106 Smoking Man on 04.11.18 at 12:39 am

I ask my wife for the phone back while shes playing teal slots on it, i say ” I wana see if the humanitarian bombing has started” she said “who cares”

God damn highlander scotch bitch.

We are on the same team. Parents. While all our relatives fund deposits from bank of mom for the ultamit status symbol we cut our kids lose.

No support other than love. The story goes we are homeless in California we pissed away all our money in casinos. We can’t help you.

My kids all around 30. Jealous as shit on how great their cousins are doing. Stainless steel fridges and fake love.

Now it’s time for them to become men. Use that energy to get even with the world. Make money.

It’s called being a loving father. Why deprive them of the un safe felling of desperation that motivates them get there shit together..

I’m good

#107 Harrison Bergeron on 04.11.18 at 12:42 am

There are 55 ways ,

Here’s the top 3 anagrams dialing in garth turner with no space between for those in the back rows or those speaking to….errr…holding off creditors on the phone as you peruse the comments….

RANGER TRUTH
GARNER TRUTH
GRANTER HURT

seems fitting …….

#108 Smoking Man on 04.11.18 at 12:52 am

Putin ready to start ww3 to defend energy exports. T2 and butts. Doing everything to defend their funding model of from Saudi Arabia. Let’s face it these two kids entire life has been in acidiama where the crazy are not challenged.

#109 Ronaldo on 04.11.18 at 12:59 am

#92 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 9:41 pm

If Trump lights up Syria he’s going to lose a big chunk of his base. Including me.

John Bolts first day on the job. Neocons are back.
Why he hired him is beyond any logic.
—————————————————————–
I suspect like many others before him, he won’t have the job for very long. He’ll be used like the others then discarded when the dirty work gets done. Very low survival rate under Mr. T.

#110 Fake News Again on 04.11.18 at 1:11 am

Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 9:41 pm
If Trump lights up Syria he’s going to lose a big chunk of his base. Including me.

John Bolts first day on the job. Neocons are back.
Why he hired him is beyond any logic.

______

You would rather support the Demo-communist party? Better you have the devil you know than the devil’s WORST NIGHTMARE that you don’t.

#111 Dolce Vita on 04.11.18 at 1:13 am

#31 isuckless

You may end up being correct.

HPI in 416 dropped 33% from 1989 to 1992, then lost another 7% or so by 1996 (an overall drop of 40%).

That was followed by the dizzying climb to todays price levels.

The counter argument is that Condo prices have yet to abate and are a significant part of the RE market.

Reading Tuesday’s housing starts March data from CMHC, all locations are down a bit with urban housing starts down by 7.3%.

That is the industry cutting back on projects which means they foresee fewer sales over the next few years. Whether that also translates into more price drops on the horizon, is anybody’s guess.

Overall, bad for the economy as RE currently has a near unprecedented share of GDP in Canada (almost 7.8% vs. a historical average of 5.8%, per Macquarie in Mar. 2018).

Near unprecedented as in 97.725% higher than all other prior instances of RE’s share of GDP (stats analysis by paralysis courtesy Macquarie and their Residential Investment vs. GDP chart STD DEV lines).

#112 Smoking Man on 04.11.18 at 1:18 am

When truth is found. It’s a job

https://youtu.be/x7bIbVlIqEc

#113 Dolce Vita on 04.11.18 at 1:21 am

I don’t know Garth, and I don’t think anyone knows how large the drop in 416 RE prices will be.

You say buy at an overall 30% drop; however, historical HPI and the last 416 RE price drop was as follows:

HPI in 416 dropped 33% from 1989 to 1992, then lost another 7% or so by 1996 (an overall price drop of 40%).

Thus and historically, there is still some more room for prices to drop and time for that to unfold.

And, the current HPI is monstrous compared to the peak back then – the fall from grace may be greater yet than 40%.

#114 Howard on 04.11.18 at 4:42 am

#38 Bibi on 04.10.18 at 6:44 pm

Here we have Mumbai lifestyle with Luxembourg prices.

——————————

Great line. Describes Toronto well.

#115 Howard on 04.11.18 at 4:51 am

#47 MSM Free Zone on 04.10.18 at 7:11 pm

It was the foreign buyer tax he said he’d repeal. And yeah, it’s a punch in the face to Canadians who support him. Whose interests is he planning to serve? Ontario residents – Canadian citizens – or foreign nationals?

#116 under the radar on 04.11.18 at 7:43 am

Cosmos
I have some difficulty believing financing was an issue for a sold out building. More than likely they realized they didn’t not squeeze out all the juice possible and are relying on the strength of their Agreement of Purchase and Sale , together with bona fide refusals from “lenders” to the project to insulate them from any gunslinger class action lawyer. Look for the development to be repackaged in another form and priced substantially higher.

#117 Trumpocalypse2018 on 04.11.18 at 7:43 am

HOLY CRAP !!!!

“Get Ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and smart”

Trump to send missiles any moment now.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

https://globalnews.ca/news/4137079/russia-warns-u-s-missiles-syria-shot-down/

Watch this escalate. Hug your children.

PREPARE.

#118 SimplyPut7 on 04.11.18 at 7:46 am

#115 Howard on 04.11.18 at 4:51 am

He won’t be able to remove the tax, it generates income and they are about to lose a lot of revenue sources once the real estate industry falls and all of the taxes from:
* land transfers
* home sales
* salaries from realtors
* salaries from mortgage brokers
* salaries from home stagers
* construction from home improvement
* purchases sitting on the HELOCs of homeowners

He’ll see quickly the tax is an easy cash grab and also use it to score points with citizens in Ontario who will want answers to why the sellers who offered over $2 million on Derek’s house and the broke Mattamy buyers were able to get that much money in the first place to buy a home.

I would not be surprised if he raised it to 20% like BC and blame foreigners for the downturn.

#119 Gravy Train on 04.11.18 at 7:52 am

#111 Dolce Vita on 04.11.18 at 1:13 am
“Whether that also translates into more price drops on the horizon, is anybody’s guess.”

#113 Dolce Vita on 04.11.18 at 1:21 am
“Thus and historically, there is still some more room for prices to drop and time for that to unfold.”

So—what is a villa in Tuscany going for these days? :)

#120 Hamsterwheelie on 04.11.18 at 8:00 am

So uh, are ya’ll the same people who missed the peak waiting to sell at the highest price now waiting to hit the bottom for the lowest price? Likely not, all talk and no action. We’ve been riding these wacky waves from primary home purchase in 2011 to 3 additional houses and now back down to 2. What a wild ride, learning in the trenches, I should become a mortgage broker I know the ins and outs so well. Now we are shoring up our castle walls but still looking through the arrow slits at local real estate – prices have stabilised and still 1/3 the cost of Toronto. Who on here lends privately through brokers to finance suckers like us? When we cash out that would seem the way to go – lending to folks who colour outside the lines at 11% or more.

#121 Terry on 04.11.18 at 8:05 am

I hope we see corrections where I live in BC. Has to happen here too, I don’t care if it’s claimed to be local, if it’s unafordable, and cheaper an hour down the road, it’s gotta come down. There’s no reason for this bubble to keep pumping.
Lets see if this one gets posted!

#122 Howard on 04.11.18 at 8:31 am

Derek’s story made the MSM.

It appears “Derek” is actually Douglas. (LINK DELETED)

I have deleted the link to protect the personal details of the blog dog in question, as was my pledge to him and his wife. – Garth

#123 dharma bum on 04.11.18 at 8:44 am

Consciously waiting for a market correction is like watching and waiting for a pot of cold water on the stove to start boiling.
It seemingly takes forever.
Stop waiting.
Stop watching.
It’ll happen before you know it.

#124 rental property math on 04.11.18 at 9:19 am

Cosmo condo’s did everyone good..

“Please note that in accordance with section 19 of Ontario Regulation 48/01 of the Condominium Act, 1998, the interest payable is 0% on your deposit monies returned”.

They held what.. 100 million for two years? Didn’t pay anyone interest. Cancelled the project only to build taller towers at a substantial rate more per sqft. That’s a pretty good deal for them.

#125 Ole Doberman on 04.11.18 at 9:40 am

Bitcoin appears to have stabilized at 6k-ish, is anyone else thinking of backing up the truck?

So you can ride it to zero? Go ahead. We’re watching. – Garth

#126 Ian on 04.11.18 at 9:43 am

Come on Smoky, Syria is using chlorine on children. It’s time to teach them and Russia a lesson. I would have expected you’d be hawkish on this.

Russia is utterly out of control thanks to the two worst Secretaries of State of all time, John Kerry and Hillary. Those two did nothing to stop Russia’s adventurism.

#127 Linda on 04.11.18 at 10:02 am

Those punted condo buyers are the lucky ones. If housing is sinking due to speculators, imagine how condos will be affected. Based on various articles I’ve read speculators adore buying condos, usually in multiples of units per building. So the punted condo buyers may not have that desired place of one’s own, but presumably will be getting their deposit back. If they borrowed it, they can either pay off the debt or if the lender agrees find another place to purchase. Possibly at a lower price given the sinking values – I’m sure there will be speculators willing to ditch their devaluing unit(s). It is possible that some of those units have never been occupied, so whoever buys them could get a ‘new’ unit on sale. I wonder if the punted buyers could band together & find a group of speculators who would be delighted to sell their units en masse? I still think it a mistake to buy a condo, but am just guessing the punted buyers would still not be able to afford to buy a SD even at depressed prices.

#128 Lee on 04.11.18 at 10:14 am

You think Bitcoin is going to zero. What are your thoughts on Blockchain technology? Here to stay?

#129 Proof ? on 04.11.18 at 10:27 am

to comment # 126 Ian

proof ?
same as last time – proof pointed to Saudi supplied gas release by “moderate rebels”

you probably believe the bs about Skirpal as well – 2 weeks before Russian elections and clsoe to the start of the World Cup

from your postings before I thought you had a more circumspect mind

#130 Smoking Man on 04.11.18 at 10:43 am

Zuckaburg full of it. Just saw his testimony.

Yeah Russians influenced the election on face book.
Bahaha.

No one publicly supported Trump. Water cooler chat was silent. Facebook posts supporting Trump scarce.

The silent majority said nothing.

The election was all about normal people rejecting the insanity of the left.

#131 Tony on 04.11.18 at 10:48 am

Re: #10 Stan Brooks on 04.10.18 at 5:36 pm

Once the NAFTA negotiations are over the euro will trounce the Canadian dollar.

#132 Smoking Man on 04.11.18 at 10:48 am

Ian on 04.11.18 at 9:43 am
Come on Smoky, Syria is using chlorine on children. It’s time to teach them and Russia a lesson. I would have expected you’d be hawkish on this.

Russia is utterly out of control thanks to the two worst Secretaries of State of all time, John Kerry and Hillary. Those two did nothing to stop Russia’s adventurism.
…..

Dude turn off the tv. Ask yourself who benefits from a gas attack on kids. Sure as hell it’s not Putin or Assad.

Neocons are back. Trump better smarten up.

#133 45north on 04.11.18 at 10:49 am

Smoking Man: If Trump lights up Syria he’s going to lose a big chunk of his base. Including me.

The US and its European allies have accused the Assad regime of being behind the attack in the rebel-held area of Douma, but Russian officials have claimed that no trace of chemical weapons could be found at the site, and argued that the attack either never took place or was staged by rebels to provide a pretext for western military intervention.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/10/russia-hits-back-over-syria-chemical-attack-with-call-for-un-inquiry

glad I don’t live in Syria

#134 rent in the GTA on 04.11.18 at 11:23 am

for those that predicted a fall in rent with ‘rent control’ provincial legislation-
so far, i YYYYYYYUUUUUUUUGE WRONG

just wow

#135 Ian on 04.11.18 at 11:27 am

#129

I subscribe to Foreign Affairs.

You can also just get the BBC app.

Easy to stay informed.

#136 Ronaldo on 04.11.18 at 11:56 am

#125 Ole Doberman on 04.11.18 at 9:40 am

Bitcoin appears to have stabilized at 6k-ish, is anyone else thinking of backing up the truck?

So you can ride it to zero? Go ahead. We’re watching. – Garth
——————————————————————
LOL, good one. Won’t be difficult to load. Nothing there.

#137 condo renters in the GTA on 04.11.18 at 12:16 pm

rent is header up

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-11/condo-renters-in-toronto-get-ready-to-write-a-bigger-check

#138 LivinLarge on 04.11.18 at 12:23 pm

“So—what is a villa in Tuscany going for these days? :)”…well if you limit it to Tuscany then the pickings are small. You might find something needing ground up resto for €600K

#139 Iconoclast on 04.11.18 at 12:30 pm

Very, very unlikely that the Syrian goverment gassed anybody. It makes zero sense. Zero.

The Russians sent a chem warfare team in, and found no evidence there was any attack at all.

The Skripal situation made no sense either, until I read that Skipal was making enquiries about returning to Russia. If so, someone had a motive. And it wasn’t the Russians.

Take your conspiracy theory claptrap elsewhere. – Garth

#140 Suck to be you.. I know I know on 04.11.18 at 12:46 pm

Well at least condo is keeping Toronto employed. I was down by Queen and Church for some blood work, you can see many people heading to 3 condo construction sites. There were even a guy in a hard hat and safety vesting holding a sign “We’re hiring, enquire within..” on the corner to recruit workers.
As for 30% hard drop, well go check out the houses sold lately around Riverdale area. All sold 20-30% over-asking within a week. And they are not priced low. A semi-detached listed for 999K and sold for 1.31 million. https://www.mongohouse.com/soldrecords/5acd8f694df2c43e60c07b18

#141 Hi I'm on 04.11.18 at 12:53 pm

DELETED

#142 Ogopogo on 04.11.18 at 1:01 pm

Even the once-arrogant local shysters in Kelowna are squirming with the new spec tax. Here is what Francis Braam, housing pimp meister for Royal LePage bleated recently in the hysteria website http://scrapthespeculationtax.ca/#contact_your_mla:

“The Speculation Tax has had an immediate effect on the Real Estate Market in the Central Okanagan… We had clients from other parts of Canada who have walked away from accepted offers on properties, and we have had numerous clients tell us they are no longer interested in buying in B.C.. Not only are our customers telling us they are not going to purchase here, the unfriendly tax treatment that B.C. has introduced to fellow Canadians, makes them reluctant to holiday in our community as well.”

Assuming he’s even telling the truth (we are talking about a realtor after all), many British Columbians are loving every minute of this slow-mo capitulation.

#143 dr talc on 04.11.18 at 1:07 pm

#62 Darren on 04.10.18 at 7:46 pm

There are still no price decreases in the Niagara area. Does anyone have any input on if and when we will start seeing the effects here? Thanks.


The region was under priced and flat for a long time, it adjusted in 2016-17, the adjustment was fueled by a Toronto overflow. Don’t hold your breath for any drop

#144 B20 Bust on 04.11.18 at 1:08 pm

Heralded as the pin prick to the market, and the millenial moister killer, the B20 regulations are not touching prices or increasing inventory in South Vancouver Island.

All the B20 approvals have been exhausted over the past 3 months, and yet no substantive change to the market. Houses are on for longer in some cases, but no adjustment to prices. Owners listing at the inflated assessed values.

Lower end houses still have multiple bidding wars in some cases. Even some higher end stuff are playing TO style games of deferring offers and getting bids well over ask. And it seems to be local money, often young families.

The initial effect of B20 should have been felt by now, with the caveat that the full effect will be felt in summer. Sales are down but inventory – even stale overpriced inventory – is moving with no decrease in prices.

Looks like B20 will be a nothing burger like all the previous fed changes designed to cool the market that only went up.

As everyone says, its supply – and that is not increasing fast enough apparently.

And now that we know from here that rising interest rates will not prick the market, seems little hope left for the renters and sideline speculators waiting for prices to become affordable. Those that waited in BC gambled – and gambled wrong.

You are premature on assessing the B20 impact. – Garth

#145 Ace Goodheart on 04.11.18 at 1:08 pm

Taken from the “realtor.ca” website:

“The expertise of a Realtor can help ensure the purchase of your first home doesn’t become a life sentence”.

Becoming increasingly annoyed by this sort of thing.

If you want to ensure that the purchase of your first home does not become a life sentence, hire a real estate lawyer BEFORE YOU SIGN ANYTHING.

A realtor is a commissioned sales person who should not be negotiating contracts, giving legal advice on purchase and sale of property, or doing anything else other than sales.

There is a reason why they all tell you the “standard” form that is used to purchase and sell a house cannot be changed or altered. It is because changing or altering this form would require them to practice law, which they are statute-barred from doing.

Do not get legal advice from realtors.

#146 SimplyPut7 on 04.11.18 at 1:22 pm

#140 Suck to be you.. I know I know on 04.11.18 at 12:46 pm

Broadview and Danforth is an expensive area of Toronto, it will never be cheap.

But last year in the spring market, those homes would have sold for 1.80 – 1.95 million (check Mongohouse 180-360 date range).

The people in that area are not poor but I’m sure they would have preferred to pay 1.3 million for a home that is of better quality than 1.95 million on something that isn’t as nice as the homes coming to market now.

As for the condos, Urbanation stated nearly half were purchased by condo investors, they are the next shoe to drop. Most of them are not foreign investors, they were not planning on paying the mortgages on the condos, they thought they could flip them or rent them out for a bit until they could sell them for a profit. They didn’t expect mortgage rates to rise and their banks or lender to turn on them so quickly, or knew there were so many speculators in the condo market. I’m sure some of them would have stayed away if they had these facts before making such a large gamble.

Thousands of investors can’t sell their homes at the same time, we don’t have enough buyers for that scheme to work.

#147 Heloguy on 04.11.18 at 1:24 pm

#130 Smoking Man on 04.11.18 at 10:43 am

The election was all about normal people rejecting the insanity of the left.

We can only hope the same happens here in 2019

#148 For those about to flop... on 04.11.18 at 1:29 pm

#144 B20 Bust on 04.11.18 at 1:08 pm
Heralded as the pin prick to the market, and the millenial moister killer, the B20 regulations are not touching prices or increasing inventory in South Vancouver Island.

All the B20 approvals have been exhausted over the past 3 months, and yet no substantive change to the market. Houses are on for longer in some cases, but no adjustment to prices. Owners listing at the inflated assessed values.

Lower end houses still have multiple bidding wars in some cases. Even some higher end stuff are playing TO style games of deferring offers and getting bids well over ask. And it seems to be local money, often young families.

The initial effect of B20 should have been felt by now, with the caveat that the full effect will be felt in summer. Sales are down but inventory – even stale overpriced inventory – is moving with no decrease in prices.

Looks like B20 will be a nothing burger like all the previous fed changes designed to cool the market that only went up.

As everyone says, its supply – and that is not increasing fast enough apparently.

And now that we know from here that rising interest rates will not prick the market, seems little hope left for the renters and sideline speculators waiting for prices to become affordable. Those that waited in BC gambled – and gambled wrong.

You are premature on assessing the B20 impact. – Garth

/////////////////////

Some guys on here are suffering from premature anticipation…

M43BC

#149 jess on 04.11.18 at 1:36 pm

The Big Four accountancy firms have long pushed tax avoidance. It’s time for regulation (11 Apr 2018)

Prem Sikka

Complex tax dodging schemes by the ‘Big Four’ are constantly being thrown out by the courts. But why is nothing done to penalise them?
read more @
https://leftfootforward.org/2018/04/the-big-four-accountancy-firms-have-long-pushed-tax-avoidance-its-time-for-regulation/

e.g.
PwC

Last year, a PwC scheme was declared to be unlawful by the courts, in the case of Development Securities (NO 9) Ltd & Ors v Revenue and Customs [2017] UKFTT 565 (TC). The scheme was designed to shift apparent management control of some UK entities to Jersey – and gain tax advantages by claiming that the entities were outside the scope of UK taxes.

Another mass-marketed PwC scheme relied on complex paper financial transactions to eliminate taxable profits/gains. The matter eventually went to the UK Court of Appeal, and the judges in the case of :
Vocalspruce Ltd v The Commissioners for HMRC [2014] EWCA Civ 1302 described the scheme as “fiction” – and declared it to be unlawful..

And the UK Supreme Court heard the case of Commissioners for Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs v Pendragon plc and others [2015] UKSC 37. It related to a VAT avoidance scheme marketed by KPMG, which would have enabled car retailing companies to recover VAT input tax paid – while avoiding the payment of output tax. The court declared the scheme to be unlawful and said that the KPMG scheme was “an abuse of law”.

Another KPMG scheme to enable P&O to artificially generate a tax credit of £14m was thrown out by the tax tribunal in the case of Peninsular & Oriental Steam Navigation Company v HMRC [2013] UKFTT 322 (TC). The judges said that the “scheme was designed and implemented for no reason other than tax avoidance” and contrived transactions were “all part of an elaborate trick designed to exploit [tax legislation]”.

Deloitte

A Deloitte scheme was sold to Ladbroke Group International (LGI), the betting company. The key idea was for two subsidiaries to deliberately transact with each other in order to generate a tax loss in one of them. The group suffered no real loss overall. A Ladbrokes tax director told the court that he had “been approached by Deloitte with a proposal for a tax planning opportunity”. The scheme was thrown by the courts in the case of Travel Document Service & Anor v Revenue & Customs [2017] UKUT 45 (TCC) (07 February 2017).

A Deloitte scheme to enable bankers to avoid income tax and National Insurance contributions on their bonuses via offshore entities was declared unlawful in the case of UBS AG v HMRC and DB Group Services v HMRC [2016] UKSC 13. The judges said that the scheme “had no business or commercial rationale beyond tax avoidance”.
EY
The scheme was declared to be unlawful by the court judgment in Greene King Plc & Anor v Revenue and Customs [2016] EWCA Civ 782.
What now?

Yet despite all the above and other judgements, there have been no investigations, fines or prosecution of any of the big four accounting firms by the Financial Reporting Council, professional bodies, HMRC or any other regulator into these schemes.

Action against the big firms and their partners is long overdue – and should ensure that the firms face the consequences of their predatory practices:

https://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2018/april/hmrc-hardens-stance-against-tax-evasion/
https://www.out-law.com/en/topics/tax/tax-litigation–disputes-/corporate-criminal-offences-of-failing-to-prevent-the-facilitation-of-tax-evasion-/
========================

#150 jess on 04.11.18 at 1:44 pm

…’Experts say HMRC then removed the tax breaks, but claim advisers kept on recommending the schemes.

Solicitor Julia Norris told how one property investor put in £300,000 but faces a £7million tax bill as loans took his investment to around £10million.

It was sold as a “cash flow advant­­age”, with the investor eventually paying the tax. But HMRC argued it was a sophisticated means to avoid tax.’

….the breaks, which were popular under Tony Blair’s government, were scrapped in the late 2000s.

The people responsible for the scheme received huge bonuses for recruiting players…
A spokesman for ­Kingsbridge told The Mirror that clients were made aware “without exception” of the ­products they were investing in.”

https://www.moneymarketing.co.uk/footballers-face-250m-bill-tax-avoidance-scheme/
===========
from 2011
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/jan/16/premier-league-footballers-tax-avoidance

#151 jess on 04.11.18 at 1:48 pm

Trump Wants Wendy Vitter, Who Thinks Planned Parenthood Kills 150,000 Women a Year, to Be a Federal Judge

Kate Harloe

Trump should quit watching fox and watch john oliver tonite for the full picture
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6hj7qk

#152 Blacksheep on 04.11.18 at 1:49 pm

Ian #126, #133,

“Come on Smoky, Syria is using chlorine on children.”

“It’s time to teach them and Russia a lesson.”
————————————–
“Easy to stay informed.”
—————————————
Stop reading / watching anything.

Apply just a smidgeon of critical thinking to these accusations and you yourself, will come to the obvious conclusion that the Putin regime would not tolerate suck an egregious error in judgement.

Vlad is putting it all on the line, supporting Bashar (Vlad’s puppet to be sure). Nothing of significance happens, with out Russian approval.

The west wants conflict with Russia. Period.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/may/6/syrian-rebels-used-sarin-nerve-gas-not-assads-regi/

This is the exact outcome, I feared would occur, had witchy poo got into the white house. It now appears Trump’s has hand, is being forced. The state wants, what the state wants.

What a disappointment…

#153 Blacksheep on 04.11.18 at 1:54 pm

“Trumps – hand”.

#154 Ole Doberman on 04.11.18 at 2:57 pm

#136 Ronaldo on 04.11.18 at 11:56 am

#125 Ole Doberman on 04.11.18 at 9:40 am

Bitcoin appears to have stabilized at 6k-ish, is anyone else thinking of backing up the truck?

So you can ride it to zero? Go ahead. We’re watching. – Garth
——————————————————————
LOL, good one. Won’t be difficult to load. Nothing there.
——————————————————-
Haha very funny gentlemen – and I use that term loosely. It need a correction and is making next leg up, 196K is what some analysts are pegging it at:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/american-investors-plan-to-hodl-bitcoin-until-price-hits-196000

There are no ‘analysts’ quoted in that puff piece. – Garth

#155 Proof ? on 04.11.18 at 3:07 pm

to # 136 Ian

I see your problem – you listen to sources like the BBC and take things at face value. Do a little research yourself.

The former UK ambassador to Syria (retired – a Mr’ Ford) just said on Radio Scotland interview that he believes this “gas attack” was staged and there is no way Assad would sanction this given that they have already won the war.

Do you even know what the Syrian war is about ?
Have you read the polls from Syria where 85 % of the people feel the USA is behind all the attacks of the “rebels” . Do you know who the White Hats are and who leads them and the fact that they have been caught in the act of fabricating such stories ?

Don’t bother replying – you keep drinking the kool aid my friend. I’ll just be scrolling past your posts like all the others that have nothing to offer but parroting what the MSM has to offer.

#156 Hi I'm on 04.11.18 at 3:18 pm

#106 Smoking Man on 04.11.18 at 12:39 am

I ask my wife for the phone back while shes playing teal slots on it, i say ” I wana see if the humanitarian bombing has started” she said “who cares”
God damn highlander scotch bitch.
We are on the same team. Parents. While all our relatives fund deposits from bank of mom for the ultamit status symbol we cut our kids lose.
No support other than love. The story goes we are homeless in California we pissed away all our money in casinos. We can’t help you.
My kids all around 30. Jealous as shit on how great their cousins are doing. Stainless steel fridges and fake love.
Now it’s time for them to become men. Use that energy to get even with the world. Make money.
It’s called being a loving father. Why deprive them of the un safe felling of desperation that motivates them get there shit together..

I’m good
_______________________________________
He said it not me!

#157 NoName on 04.11.18 at 4:27 pm

#151 jess on 04.11.18 at 1:48 pm
Trump Wants Wendy Vitter, Who Thinks Planned Parenthood Kills 150,000 Women a Year, to Be a Federal Judge

Kate Harloe

Trump should quit watching fox and watch john oliver tonite for the full picture
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x6hj7qk

ya, but there are ONLY 8 states where is sex selective abortion illegal, and punishable by law.
(arizona, kansas, illinois, north carolina, north dakota, oklahoma, pennsylvania, south dakota)

why do thin here at home (canada) they don’t say gender any more????

фу jess

#158 oopswediditagain on 04.11.18 at 4:41 pm

B20 Bust: “Looks like B20 will be a nothing burger like all the previous fed changes designed to cool the market that only went up.”
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

I guess we all see what we want to see. Lol

Try this Victoria update:

https://househuntvictoria.ca/2018/04/09/april-9th-market-update/

"As we progress into the spring the declines are getting more pronounced in the single family market. The dip we saw a couple weeks ago has continued and I’m tired of saying it, but this is not the time of the year for sales to be flat. Overall sales are down 30% but in single family its north of 40%. Meanwhile inventory is up 10%."

#159 Penny Henny on 04.11.18 at 4:47 pm

#143 dr talc on 04.11.18 at 1:07 pm
#62 Darren on 04.10.18 at 7:46 pm

There are still no price decreases in the Niagara area. Does anyone have any input on if and when we will start seeing the effects here? Thanks.


The region was under priced and flat for a long time, it adjusted in 2016-17, the adjustment was fueled by a Toronto overflow. Don’t hold your breath for any drop

————————-

I agree with the Dr. Also unemployment rate is only 5.5% in the region.

https://www.niagararegion.ca/priorities/dashboard/measures.aspx?q=Unemployment%20Rate

#160 TheDood on 04.11.18 at 4:52 pm

#144 B20 Bust on 04.11.18 at 1:08 pm

…the B20 regulations are not touching prices or increasing inventory in South Vancouver Island.

…The initial effect of B20 should have been felt by now, with the caveat that the full effect will be felt in summer. Sales are down but inventory – even stale overpriced inventory – is moving with no decrease in prices.

…Looks like B20 will be a nothing burger like all the previous fed changes designed to cool the market that only went up.

…And now that we know from here that rising interest rates will not prick the market, seems little hope left for the renters and sideline speculators waiting for prices to become affordable. Those that waited in BC gambled – and gambled wrong.
__________________________

This post reeks of ‘Realtor’ to me.

All the tools designed to bring RE down are but a few months old, give them the same amount of time low interest rates and RE cartel (FOMO) marketing had during the run up in prices over that last decade. Prices are not dropping over night. But they will drop. And in my opinion, they’ll drop HUGE! Give it some time. Relax. Have a drink. Smoke a cigar (or some weed!).

Circumstances hovering over RE right now;

– ridiculously high household debt across the country, with the highest per capita in BC no doubt – with abundance tied up in RE, credit cards, and helocs
– rising interest rates
– financial illiteracy
– no savings
– stress test and draconian taxes for those who treat RE like investment – especially in BC

For those that still preach big drop in RE prices ain’t gonna happen, your statements / predictions have no real economic foundation. Just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Just means its not gonna happen tomorrow, or next week. Canadian household debt loads and rising rates alone would have killed RE, the additional government interventions were the extra push that ensure it will happen.

Keep in mind there is NO INDUSTRY in BC (in Canada for that matter) that provides the income required for locals to buy BC real estate. Higher and higher pricing is simply unsustainable. The locals don’t have the cash to buy, and those that are buying right now are surely leveraging their entire financial future just to get into the market. They represent the dumbest of the dumb Canada has to offer.

DON’T BUY REAL ESTATE! Look away and don’t even pay attention. It’s such a sucker’s deal right now.

Rent and invest, and I guarantee you’ll be happier!

Have a great day dogs!

#161 M on 04.11.18 at 7:24 pm

It started:

https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/04/04/they-bought-their-prebuilt-homes-at-the-markets-peak-now-they-face-financial-ruin.html

..I know a few cases myself. Most are hiding it. I suspect that this is normal in Tor these days.
It’s called “collapse” since GDP is highly sensitive to housing and housing related. Yes..new cars ARE housing. No moron in Tor makes enough $ to buy anything on its own dough.

#162 Gravy Train on 04.12.18 at 6:02 am

#92 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 9:41 pm
“If Trump lights up Syria he’s going to lose a big chunk of his base. Including me.

“John Bolt[on’]s first day on the job. Neocons are back.
Why he hired him is beyond any logic.”

Smokey, does this mean you’re no longer enamoured with the Donald? (You’ve held a passionate longing for Trump for years now.)

As to why he made John Bolton the National Security Advisor, isn’t it obvious? Bolton’s a nutjob, just like Trump! Homeland Security Advisor Tom Bossert and Deputy National Security Advisor Nadia Schadlow have both resigned. Why? Because they both don’t want to work for a nutjob—or for Bolton, for that matter! :)

Did you see what I did there, Smokey? :)

#163 Steven Rowlandson on 04.12.18 at 8:12 am

That picture reminds me of a Saturday afternoon cartoon.