Get balanced

From their highs, before The Donald started a trade war and Mr. Dressup went to India, stock markets have shrunk. The Dow and S&P 500 are skinnier by about 8%. Bay Street has lost just under 7%. Daily volatility has increased dramatically and stock-only portfolios have been on a wild ride.

Real estate hasn’t been much of a better choice. Toronto houses are 14% cheaper than a year ago and almost 20% below their apex. Detacheds in some burbs are down 25%. New home prices have fallen by up to $120,000 with big builders like Mattamy. House sales volumes from Vancouver to Calgary, Winnipeg to the GTA and beyond are down sharply. The BC Politburo’s new suite of taxes looks ready to hammer prices and confidence there.

There are reasons not to put all your eggs in one basket. No asset class rises forever. Not houses. Not stocks. Nor do you have control over the things that make prices move, like central bankers, politicians, porn stars or extreme weather.

So love balance. It dampens risk. Tamps down volatility. Keeps emotion in check. Helps you sleep nights and still make money. The idea of a balanced portfolio is to protect you when things decline, yet grab growth when they rise. In 2008-9 a stock-only portfolio lost 55% and took seven years to recover. A balanced portfolio gave up 20% and recovered fully in a year – then advanced 17%. But that’s irrelevant. 2008 is not coming back.

Balance means just that – safe things and growth assets in the same portfolio. A mix of 40 (fixed income) and 60 (equity) is time-tested. You could do worse. But this must be combined with diversification. No individual stocks, but instead ETFs holding hundreds of them. Exposure to large, medium and small companies. A global focus – Canada, the US and international. Hedge against currencies, too, with a 20% US-dollar denomination. Mix in things like rate reset preferreds (to protect against rising rates) and some commercial real estate (in the form of REITs), and you can sleep even better. Especially during days like these.

So far this year the balanced portfolio has done what it’s supposed to – repel declines when financial markets fall. Despite central bankers raising rates (five times in the US, thrice here), stock markets surging and diving, the rise of US protectionism, the FBI raiding Trump’s lawyer and the return of inflation, this mix has retained virtually all of its 11% advance in 2017. The year before it gained 8%. The seven-year average is 7.0%, and two of those years (2011 and 2015) sucked on the markets.

Mistakes investors make are routine. They chase returns, buying what’s going up and shunning assets which just got cheaper. They confuse investing with gambling. They buy stocks based on heresay, intuition, their BIL’s hot tip or what some idiot said on the Internet. They put money into sexy stuff, like cryptos or weed, helping create doomed bubbles. They have a recency bias, making them believe what’s just happened will occur forever. (Just look at how everyone talked about real estate a year ago.) Amateur investors expect everything they own to gain in value at the same time, which is rare in a balanced, diversified portfolio. So they sell decliners and buy advancers, ratcheting up risk. They fail to rebalance and give no thought to the tax treatment of interest, dividends or capital gains within registered or cash accounts.

Costly mistakes. Avoid them.

Here’s the current thinking on balanced portfolio weightings, by the way: Cash, 2% (in a high-yield account). Global and Canadian sovereign bonds, 11%. Provincial bonds, 3%, Corporate and high-yield bonds, 9%. The preferreds (rate reset) clock in at 15%.

On the growth side, Canadian equity and dividend, 16%, real estate investment trusts, 5%, US large cap equity, 13%, US mid-cap, 3%, international 17% and emerging markets 6%. In recent months it made sense to take a little off the table in the US (obviously), while adding some to Canada (undervalued) and international (global growth is outstripping that of North America).

Of course, this works best if you have the right ETFs, allocate them properly for tax avoidance, rebalance as conditions require plus have a Bernese who can bring you a small keg of scotch when you do so. Liquidity matters, too.

 

153 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 04.09.18 at 6:20 pm

Pink Pollen falling in Richmond.

These guys decided that chumming the waters was the best course of action for them after failing to offload this flip in the past month.

Previously on the market for 1.81 million ,they just took a hatchet to the patience playbook and lopped 430k off the ask,after paying 1.7 in February 2017.

One point to be emphasized ,is that even though they picked it up more than 300k less than the current 2016 assessment at the time of purchase,they are still struggling to offload it as the detached market is in reverse in the parts of the region that matter to most.

They still have a strong assessment at 1.94 ,but I have showed repeatedly that this is counting for less and less with actual completed sales as this stealth correction passes the 18 month marker…

M43BC

Now asking 1.38

7840 MALAHAT AVE RICHMOND paid 1.7 February 2017 ass 1.94 was asking 1.81

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/7840-malahat-avenue

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA1V1pZUA==

2018-03-12 : $1,818,000

#2 Michael King on 04.09.18 at 6:31 pm

In Vancouver the RE insanity continues. This listing is depressing. The floor plans for new condos in this city are consistently designed for garden gnomes. Don’t fall over the coffee table! All for $1 million plus. Just awful.

https://tycampbell.com/r2253036-203-2239-w-7th-avenue

#3 Canadian in LA on 04.09.18 at 6:34 pm

Balanced only works if you have money. If you don’t, put all your eggs in one basket and watch the damn basket.

#4 Johnny D on 04.09.18 at 6:38 pm

With the Kinder Morgan mess there is a clear message sent about investing in Canada… Get the hell out!!!

#5 Stockpicker on 04.09.18 at 6:39 pm

Lost 55% u figure, dividends didn’t stop did they? Long term my young grasshoppers..

#6 What the heck? on 04.09.18 at 6:42 pm

Garth did you write this post after reading my email? or did I happen to just email you on a day where you were already planning on writing a post that answered my question? Either way i’m totally creeped out. But thanks!

#7 Vancouver Brit on 04.09.18 at 6:44 pm

Moral of the story, emotions are your downfall. If you have emotional strength you will know not to sell in a downturn and the market will eventually recover and then some.

One of the primary jobs for somebody like Garth is managing a persons emotions, trying to discourage people from exiting the market at the worst possible time.

If you have the cojones, a 90/10 or even 100% stock portfolio performs much better than a 60/40 long-term.

#8 My Bonds are falling!!!! My bonds are falling!!! on 04.09.18 at 6:45 pm

I’ve bought about $100,000 in bonds last year, and now they are only valued at $98,417.63c. I thought that Government of Canada Bonds were safer at 55%, Canadian stocks at 25%, US Equities at 10%, International stocks at 5% and the Big 5 bank stocks at 5%.
Where did I go wrong? My MER is about 1.5%, so by the end of this year I get charged $1,000+

#9 JSS on 04.09.18 at 6:47 pm

Garth, any comments regarding trans mountain pipeline?

#10 Lawnboy on 04.09.18 at 6:48 pm

Attention K Mart Shoppers

New meaning of FOMO…..

“ Fear of Mellon Over-head”

#11 Whatcha Minnie on 04.09.18 at 6:51 pm

Tomorrow morning I have rowing practice. After that, I’ll spend the day working on a tool for UI Designers that and I am building. At night, I’m taking my girlfriend for dinner :). Sunday always gets the best of me! I usually end up just relaxing, watching some Netflix.

#12 Honey Dripper on 04.09.18 at 6:52 pm

Great advice for sure. That is a lot of ETFs to buy. My guess is a total of 11. My asset allocation is spread a little thinner. Props and fist bump!

Portfolio Asset Allocation
https://bit.ly/2H90jWI

#13 Tony on 04.09.18 at 6:53 pm

When you look at the stock market in America you also have to take into consideration the value of the U.S. dollar index just like in Venezuela the currency greatly affects the local stock exchange valuations.

#14 Mike on 04.09.18 at 7:01 pm

GVR and slurrey are still rocking up and up.

No B-20 and taxes matter.

#15 Tony on 04.09.18 at 7:03 pm

I read on the Globe and Mail online newspaper today TD is sort of telling clients not to buy marijuana stocks. If history means anything D-day seems to be the day marijuana is declared legal.

#16 AB Boxster on 04.09.18 at 7:10 pm

Balance and diversification rule.

Disagree about CDN investing though.
I guess if you have non-registered assets that capital gains taxes and dividend tax credits are very useful. These will be eliminated in a future Marxist T2 budget, though.

If you only have registered or TFSA then I would stay away from the CDN anything.

Canada is soon to become an economic basket case.
No smart company will ever invest in this country again after the Kinder Morgan pipeline dies.

And I think there’s about a 50-50 chance that Alberta gets out of this ‘wonderous confederation’ and either goes it alone, or joins the You-alls.
Right now I’d vote to go.
It might hurt me financially, but my kids would have more opportunity without the stifling stupidity of our feminist leader and his band of merry fools.

T2 has done about all he can to divide the country and destroy the west, much like daddy did.

There doesn’t appear to be much reason to remain part of a conglomerate of socialist fiefdoms,and marxist virtue signalling federal aholes, that thwart Alberta’s economy at every step, all the while it continues to send vast amounts of money to economic basket cases down east.

Time to try something new, methinks.

#17 The Limited Sage on 04.09.18 at 7:13 pm

Gartho,

With a long horizon of 30+ years, would a 70/30 mix be fine if you re-balance twice a year?

#18 Willy H on 04.09.18 at 7:22 pm

Mistakes investors make are routine. They chase returns, buying what’s going up and shunning assets which just got cheaper. They confuse investing with gambling. They buy stocks based on heresay, intuition, their BIL’s hot tip or what some idiot said on the Internet. They put money into sexy stuff, like cryptos or weed, helping create doomed bubbles. They have a recency bias, making them believe what’s just happened will occur forever. … So they sell decliners and buy advancers, ratcheting up risk. They fail to rebalance and give no thought to the tax treatment of interest, dividends or capital gains within registered or cash accounts.
__ __ __ __

A textbook definition of the Canadian amateur investor “Greater Fool”.

Who is surprised when the number 1 investment of choice in Canada is over-valued residential real estate. An asset class that is, for the most part non-productive and almost impossible to generate positive cash flows from in most markets.

Just imagine what could be done with just a portion of all that capital tied up in this suburban morass of bricks and sticks. Imagine investments that diversify our economy and employ our best and brightest.

The Canuck fetish for this asset class is tying up hundreds of billions in lost investment opportunities both in Canada and Internationally. It’s driving up consumer borrowing that will eventually hit a wall smashing consumer demand for years. A nasty recession appears all but unavoidable.

We have become prisoner’s in our own houses, leveraged to our uxter’s and tightly fitted with a fiscal straight-jackets of our very own making.

These poorly allocated resources will weigh down on our domestic economic growth, limit gains in living standards and hamper us from becoming real players in the world of global investment.

In the short term we are under the allusion we are getting richer as each day passes. In reality we are setting ourselves up to become a mediocre nation of risk averse have-nots (vs Americans and Europeans) in the mid to long-term. We are setting up Canadian firms as easy pick’ins for foreign buyers. It’s the Great Canadian Giveaway.

We have been pulling future economic activity into the present for over 10 years in order to satiate our never-ending appetite for house. There will be a substantial price to pay for this choice.

The enemy has always been within.

#19 Trumpocalypse2018 on 04.09.18 at 7:27 pm

GET READY NOW!!!!!

Trump’s sleazeball lawyer has been raided. His inner world is now completely at risk. He is moving into full panic mode, and will be desperate to find a major distraction – like WAR – within days if not hours.

“An attack on our country”

And so he opens the door to justify massive retaliation.

Remember – his hyperbole is what caused the Syrian gas attacks – they thought they could get away with it since he was going to ‘withdraw the troops’ anyway.

Don’t just be fixated on Trump – look at how what he does gives latitude to the other players on the planet. be very wary. many wild cards are about to be played around the world.

Nothing like this has EVER happened in US presidential history.

Fuel up your vehicles – TONIGHT.

PREPARE.

More updates coming, stay tuned.

#20 Trumpocalypse2018 on 04.09.18 at 7:31 pm

https://www.cnn.com/

http://www.bbc.com/news

http://www.foxnews.com/

By morning expect major domestic political explosions.

PREPARE.

#21 Reynolds531 on 04.09.18 at 7:42 pm

#12 honey Dipper

It was cute when you made fun of your daughter….but is this space for you to plug your own blog?

Oh and see mine at diebrokeandalone.com!

#22 Noah on 04.09.18 at 7:46 pm

The answer lies in this 4 letter ETF: VBAL and it’s listed on the tsx ;-) Vanguard Balanced ETF.

Never put all your money in a single asset. – Garth

#23 espressobob on 04.09.18 at 7:50 pm

A balanced portfolio mitigates risk for the younger crowd looking for growth. There comes a point later on in life when income takes priority. That’s the retirement stage.

Waking up every morning and bitching about everything is usually a good indicator it’s time for a break. That’s the curmudgeon stage.

Having the right investments in the appropriate account is the real trick.

Taxation can be complicated. That’s the other part of the equation when it comes to investing and easy to overlook.

#24 Gulf Breeze on 04.09.18 at 8:04 pm

I can tell you easily what to invest in — defense contractors, oil, etc..etc…but you have to live with yourself.

Every drone strike dropped on vulnerable human beings because the U.S can’t function economically without war, will have your name on it, along with millions of others who see everything purely in terms of money. Disgusts me.

#25 windsor guy on 04.09.18 at 8:07 pm

Hi Garth, when you mention holding global bonds as part of our fixed income holdings, could you give us more specifics what we should look for in a global bond etf?

#26 arfmoocat on 04.09.18 at 8:08 pm

The San Francisco housing market is so absurd that teachers are living in dorms – even though their salaries are some of the highest in the country

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/san-francisco-housing-market-absurd-195712030.html

#27 Am I doing this right? on 04.09.18 at 8:11 pm

Can any of you gurus weigh in on these ETF picks for Garth’s suggested portfolio?

Global and Canadian sovereign bonds – IGOV – 11%
Provincial Bonds – ZPS – 3%
Corporate & high yield bonds – HYG – 9%
Preferreds – HPR – 15%
Canadian equity and dividend – ZCN – 16%
REITs – XRE – 5%
US large cap equity – VV – 13%
US mid cap equity – XMH – 3%
international equity – XAW – 17%
emerging markets – XEC – 6%

#28 tccontrarian on 04.09.18 at 8:12 pm

My largest allocation currently is the gold-space (surprise!), via GDXJ (US), and XGD (CAD); combined they constitute about 20% of p/f.
The other ‘large’ allocation is in FANG/Dow/Nasdaq/Tesla Short @ ~25% of total portfolio.
The rest is made up of 1-3% weightings each within the energy sector and/or Cannabis (both US and CDN).

In terms of investment strategies, I’m the equivalent of a Formula1 driver – racing against a field of Corollas, Civics, the odd Camaro and farming tractors.

So, as long as I avoid contact, I win! :-)

TCC

#29 joblo on 04.09.18 at 8:16 pm

What a gong show this Guberment
pipeline fail :(

https://youtu.be/Ve_dtP-NYjQ

#30 Homeless in BC on 04.09.18 at 8:19 pm

Not sure why so many Albertans/Canadians are so anxious to give away resource wealth thru Kinder Morgan. The Ralph Klien royalty in Alberta is “1% on any petroleum product priced under $40 or until completion” (Alberta Energy Ministry website) So there is no incentive for foreign oil companies to upgrade and refine bitumen here in Canada. They would have to pay Canadian labour rates, higher royalty rates and taxes on profit in Canada. Why would they? They can ship it to lower labour countries for refining and sell it back to us. We should have built upgraders and refineries here years ago but it won’t happen now. The pipeline promoters in Alberta think that Kinder Morgan will bring back the jobs and prosperity. Not going to happen. When oil cratered to -$40 they cut to the bone, laid off everybody except the guys who were willing to work harder, longer and for less (CLAC). The big oil companies have survived $40 oil and if it goes back to $100 do you think they are going to give any of it to the workers?
If you are an tradesman out of work , best not sit around waiting for oilpatch work to show up. Not going to happen, Kinder Morgan or not.
For all the foaming at the mouth bunch that want to get rid of Notley and install the Conservative crew, you might want to rethink that. I am no fan of Notley but she inherited the mess from 40 years of conservative cronyism. It was “Alberta’s friend” Ralph Klien that allowed contractors (Ledcor) to flood the province with Stephen Harpers foreign workers. It was Harper who gave away the Canadian Wheat Board and all its assets to the U.S/Saudi company Archer Daniels.
Do you really think that Andrew Scheer and his Harper clones are going to be any different than all the crew that came before him?
As for Kinder Morgan, do you remember the tanker that caught fire and burned for a week before it exploded and sank off the coast of China about a month ago? It contained gas condensate. That is the stuff that is used to dilute bitumen. It contains benzene, hexane, toluene and other chemicals that are more explosive than gasoline and the vapors affect your central nervous system causing paralysis and death. This pipeline is 36 inches in diameter, delivering 98,000 litres a minute at 900psi flowing at approx. 15 klms an hour. When the pipe gets breached do you think it might be a bit more than “a spill”?
Lets put 5 million barrels of this stuff on a mountain above your house and next to a 30,000 kid university in your area. It’s ok because Texas company KM wants to make a profit, Albertans want to buy pick up trucks and Lord Farquaad says “It is safe”
I will end now, before I tell you what I really think. Thanks to Garth and company for great advice and an opportunity to rant

#31 TnT on 04.09.18 at 8:28 pm

#19 Trumpocalypse2018 on 04.09.18 at 7:27 pm

Hey Trumpocalypse, I think your first warning was back on Jan 29th 2017

****
#3 Trumpocalypse2017 on 01.29.17 at 3:29 pm

Massive protests again today in Washington and across the USA.

The “Trump bump”, ironically, will historically only refer to the period when he was not even in office!!

The rest will be unfolding chapters of chaos and destruction.

And war?

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/01/29/the-rich-the-rest-3/

*****

It’s been over a year of warnings… you might one day be correct… I hope not…

Thanks for the heads up.

I grant you the rest of the year off buddy…

Get outside and enjoy what we currently have :)

Cheers!

#32 Yorkville Renter on 04.09.18 at 8:36 pm

#30 – as far as i know, we already have many many pipelines already in operation – this is simply one more. Difference is that people want to make an example of this one, which is a shame for those who need the work.

Am I correct? Are there dozens of existing pipelines operating today?

#33 -=jwk=- on 04.09.18 at 8:41 pm


#19 Fake News Again

“…the average Spaniard can’t afford Madrid and the average Italian can’t afford Rome.”

Correct.

Absolutely FALSE, as has been proven here many times.

Every major functioning western city has middle class housing within 45 minutes of the CBD. Except Toronto 9
(and Sydney). Large cities can’t function without lower wage workers in service industries. And those lower wage service industry workers live in the city. All over the world, every day. Except Toronto of course, where homes hours of commute time away are ‘worth’ 750k++ – for now….

#34 paracho on 04.09.18 at 8:47 pm

There is some correlation with the early 90s when my dad got stuck with a couple of houses aas a speculator at the time ( he still owns them today ) ..and today.
I remember one realtor in Woodbridge at the time who would give you a cheap car ( a Yugo) if you purchased a reduced mansion at the time..plus appliances, a few months paid property taxes, couches..etc…in a way history is repeating itself via this article..I was ateen at the time .

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/realtors-go-beyond-a-bottle-of-wine-with-personalized-and-elaborate-closing-gifts

#35 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.18 at 8:53 pm

@#14 Michael the Fallen Angel
“GVR and slurrey are still rocking up and up.
No B-20 and taxes matter.”
+++++

You forgot, “Its the best place on earth….”

#36 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.09.18 at 8:56 pm

@Trumps poxy lips 2018

Can someone tell me where the President can renew his penicillin prescription!
Its an emergency!

#37 Fraser Columbian on 04.09.18 at 8:59 pm

@ #30 Homeless in BC

Amen!
Alberta shot itself in the foot a long time ago…

#38 A on 04.09.18 at 9:04 pm

Re: Homeless in BC#30
You are a socialist party shill..textbook comments. Saul Alinsky is your muse, the father of destroying socities through organized protest and disruption. I hope you grow out of this someday, you are playing with fire. Watch the documentary about Alinsky called” A Wolf in Sheeps Clothing”. You will clearly see where his ” inspiration “comes from.

#39 S&P on 04.09.18 at 9:04 pm

All day

Buy and hold . Volatility ? All good . Add when it drops 10%. It’s on sale

Bonds in this environment dampen volatility
while decreasing returns, pass

#40 Another Deckchair on 04.09.18 at 9:06 pm

Dear #30 Homeless;

Taking all the politics out of the picture:

A major issue is that we are tied to oil, like it or not.

I don’t like it, but realize what it means to our way of life.

Are YOU 100% off oil dependency? I really doubt it. Really, really, doubt it, as it is impossible to live anywhere except maybe the Amazon without “benefiting” from the effects of oil, no matter how hard you try.

#41 Steve French on 04.09.18 at 9:06 pm

My government, corporate and high yield bond ETFs are sucking. They are dragging me down, not acting as a “stabiliser” !

And GT why so light on emerging markets? They have been a saviour for the past months- my top ETF performer. (I have that weighted at 8%).

SteveO.

#42 Smoking Man on 04.09.18 at 9:09 pm

Muller raids trumps personal lawyer office. A crime.
3rd and 4th amendment. What ever happend to client attorney privlage.

Heads will roll.

Hungry votes out globalism. Soros getting desparet.

Zuckaburg admits Facebook influenced France election.

It’s polarizing big time now and getting dangours to be a free thinker.

#43 crossbordershopper on 04.09.18 at 9:19 pm

is there anyone who really has a balanced portfolio, or a balanced life, all i see every day are people who drink too much, spend too much, talk too much, eat too much, talk about sports too much and on and on, i dont know too many balanced people. i know people who are completely anal. i mean really uptight about everything, i know rich people and lots of poor people. i cant even say that the rich are smarter. what i do know is that people who are happy are either nieve or simply hard wired to be happy, and in the end, that is the key to life. buying crap from china or seeing your little numbers on a screen that equates to money makes you happy sure.
i am having a nice caesar salad tonight, if i was poor or a billionaire. its a nice casear and if that makes you happy thats all that matters.
balance is hard to achieve in life. people are either one extreme or another. i find

#44 Capt. Serious on 04.09.18 at 9:23 pm

Why US mid-cap? Small or small value, sure. Mid-cap isn’t giving you exposure to any factor of returns.

#45 Big Kahuna on 04.09.18 at 9:25 pm

Trump has started a trade war-Communist Dictatorship of China is as pure as the driven snow in this regard-Trump and his lawyer are “sleazeballs”-Robert Mueller is as innocent as Snow White (his Uranium One corruption was an anomaly)-the truth according to the MSM. The sheep barely even remember this was supposedly about Russia-jeez.

#46 mark on 04.09.18 at 9:29 pm

I don’t think you would be wrong to avoid canada all together with 4 percent of the global market, its so small who cares………Emerging markets another story, why would anyone underweight with only 6 percent beats me it is the highest return market/index period of all the global stock markets and will beat the pants off of all of north america in the future, so what its volatile, do you want returns or negative returns your getting with your bonds, after inflation, no brainer.

#47 IMHO on 04.09.18 at 9:29 pm

All ‘Balanced’ means is when the market falls, your portfolio will fall equally.

Buying into any asset class (RE, Dow, Nasdaq, Vintage Art/Ferrari’s, Bitcoins, Tulips…at their highs is a warning that should be heeded – not talked around.

That’s why you buy multiple asset classes. – Garth

#48 S&P on 04.09.18 at 9:30 pm

Just buy the S&P 500 and forget about it!

January 2010 to March 2018 annual returns 13.7% including divvies.

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

#49 Camille on 04.09.18 at 9:34 pm

Thank you Garth. I always like it when you give out some real numbers for allocations. Helped me with more international and preferred. Now I’m hearing more about emerging markets, 6%. Moving there means selling something I guess. Ever sits still long enough for real balance? Stocks are always interesting, but what do think about bond durations. I expect on the shorter end is where you’re at < 5-7 years in your total return bond etf?

#50 Ronaldo on 04.09.18 at 9:34 pm

#2 Michael King on 04.09.18 at 6:31 pm

In Vancouver the RE insanity continues. This listing is depressing. The floor plans for new condos in this city are consistently designed for garden gnomes. Don’t fall over the coffee table! All for $1 million plus. Just awful.

https://tycampbell.com/r2253036-203-2239-w-7th-avenue
————————————————————–
And this is what some people think that we boomers are going to sell our homes and move into. What a joke. That would be much like a jail sentence. And I am the oldest of that crop. Many in my age group had children that put off having families until their late 30’s early 40’s and we are now having the joy of having grandchildren (5 myself) coming and spending time with us and loving it. Hopefully another 10 years for us before we make our final move. Don’t know many in my group with any plans to move into a condo anytime soon if at all.

#51 Ronaldo on 04.09.18 at 9:37 pm

#11 Whatcha Minnie on 04.09.18 at 6:51 pm

Tomorrow morning I have rowing practice. After that, I’ll spend the day working on a tool for UI Designers that and I am building. At night, I’m taking my girlfriend for dinner :). Sunday always gets the best of me! I usually end up just relaxing, watching some Netflix.
—————————————————————
Thanks for the update.

#52 Ronaldo on 04.09.18 at 9:51 pm

Steve Saretsky on Canadian Real Estate. Watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToD-dg4OjZI

#53 cultural elitist on 04.09.18 at 9:51 pm

@AB Boxter “Time to try something new methinks”

Economic, legal and social arrangements are extremely complex and built up over decades and centuries, but your solution is so tantalizingly simple. If only it were so easy.

@ #30 Homeless
It’s ok because Texas company KM wants to make a profit, Albertans want to buy pick up trucks and Lord Farquaad says “It is safe”

LOL! Thanks for the laugh :-), although caricaturing your opponent does not count as an argument.

My own (nobody-special) opinion is that Notley’s argument to fund it ourselves could be on the right track. If a pipeline is truly in the national interest, why not have the federal and provincial governments build it and run it?

This way, and we could protect jobs with fair wages and local environmental accountability, without the temptation to cut corners for distant shareholders. But that would take guts and leadership from Ottawa, so not gonna happen.

#54 akashic record on 04.09.18 at 10:05 pm

#22 Noah on 04.09.18 at 7:46 pm

The answer lies in this 4 letter ETF: VBAL and it’s listed on the tsx ;-) Vanguard Balanced ETF.

Never put all your money in a single asset. – Garth

—-

The mix of 16-18 “asset” is the sweet spot.

Accidentally the same number what typical managed stock portfolios are made up.

That is incorrect. – Garth

#55 Credit crunch on 04.09.18 at 10:07 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/cracks-starting-to-show-in-canadian-credit-quality-rbc-says-jfsmzpqs

#56 Ronaldo on 04.09.18 at 10:08 pm

In Quebec you can buy something like this

https://sothebysrealty.ca/en/property/quebec/laurentides-real-estate/arundel/247591/

or, In Vancouver, for a bit less, something like this.

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2241974/743-e-15th-avenue-vancouver-bc?property_type=house&search_type=property_browse&search_id=mount-pleasant-east-vancouver-bc

#57 LuckySoB on 04.09.18 at 10:18 pm

I just finished a meeting with my financial adviser, regarding re balancing my portfolio. It mirrors the spread you outlined in the “current thinking” part, with different percentages allocated – more conservative, less equities.

Glad to see confirmation of what I discussed with my guy tonight! Thanks for the excellent blog.

#58 Prophet of Doom! on 04.09.18 at 10:18 pm

Today I skipped work, didn’t file my taxes, didn’t reallocate my portfolio, and didn’t even brush my teeth. Instead I skipped work and went skiing. Good snow, visibility a bit sketchy at the top, lunch was nice, crowd was light. This is what you should do too because we are days from Armageddon.

As of today the facts are too much to bear planning for the future. The British are insisting that the Russians used nerve gas on a former Russian spy who is no longer a threat to anyone (didn’t happen), and the US says they are going to have to bomb Syria again because Assad used chemical weapons on civilians (also didn’t happen). So Trump is going to fire off a few dozen more cruise missiles but this time Russia is not only going to shoot the missiles down (the last time the US tried this only 35% of the missiles made it to target, this time less will), but they are also going to destroy whatever vehicle was used to launch the missiles. So when the USS Donald Cook sinks tomorrow or Wednesday know that $hit has gotten serious. Way serious. The chances that you could by a house tomorrow and actually move in before the end of times is as remote as it’s ever been. So don’t waste your time looking at houses, go skiing. At least until this blows over. If it does.

The west is planning a war on Russia. The sanctions war is already underway, the diplomacy war is already underway, only the shooting war remains. It’ll be tomorrow or Wednesday.

#59 PastThePeak on 04.09.18 at 10:21 pm

#32 Yorkville Renter on 04.09.18 at 8:36 pm
#30 – as far as i know, we already have many many pipelines already in operation – this is simply one more. Difference is that people want to make an example of this one, which is a shame for those who need the work.

Am I correct? Are there dozens of existing pipelines operating today?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

In the case of Trans Mountain, it is even more ridiculous. This is a twinning of an existing pipeline, where a new line will exist along the same route as the established pipeline. There is currently an existing KinderMorgan line that has been in operations since the 1950’s…but yeah…the sky is falling.

If I recall correctly, back in the 50’s it only took a few years from when the project was raised, until it was review, approved, and built. Those guys from the past clearly were not nearly as enlightened as Canadians are today…

#60 Mountain_camper_in_tent on 04.09.18 at 10:21 pm

Duke ….from last blog

What is FOMO
—————-
—————-

Google it,stupid.
__________________________

Thanks Duke for making me 3rd stupidest person on this blog.

#61 Smartalox on 04.09.18 at 10:23 pm

Flopper: One to Watch:

This one is in my hood. I saw the sign out front this weekend, and went to the Realtor site to see what it was listed for:

From Zolo, listed as of March 26th at $2.950M: https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/8242-elliott-street

From BC Assessment: $2.260M, with no sale data for the last three years. https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwM0RSQQ==

But I think that this house has been listed before – probably before the cookie-cutter kitchen and bathroom renos.

#62 PastThePeak on 04.09.18 at 10:23 pm

#53 cultural elitist on 04.09.18 at 9:51 pm
….
If a pipeline is truly in the national interest, why not have the federal and provincial governments build it and run it?

This way, and we could protect jobs with fair wages and local environmental accountability, without the temptation to cut corners for distant shareholders. But that would take guts and leadership from Ottawa, so not gonna happen.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You must be young or foolish if you think the government should start running more things…

#63 akashic record on 04.09.18 at 10:24 pm

#42 Smoking Man on 04.09.18 at 9:09 pm

Muller raids trumps personal lawyer office. A crime.
3rd and 4th amendment. What ever happend to client attorney privlage.

Heads will roll.

Hungry votes out globalism. Soros getting desparet.

Zuckaburg admits Facebook influenced France election.

It’s polarizing big time now and getting dangours to be a free thinker.

Sessions days are numbered.

Speaking of Soros… guess who is the head of his “Central European University”?

Michael Ignatieff, if you remember, the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and Leader of the Official Opposition from 2008 until 2011.

#64 Russ on 04.09.18 at 10:34 pm

S&P on 04.09.18 at 9:30 pm

Just buy the S&P 500 and forget about it!

January 2010 to March 2018 annual returns 13.7% including divvies.

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
====================

Hey.

That’s fun. Now go back 20 years, a normal boomer window, and your returns are cut in half!! 6.7%

#65 Smoking Man on 04.09.18 at 10:49 pm

Need to keep a close eye on these guys. Thier getting too close to the truth. I live close by.

https://www.google.com/search?q=moufon&oq=moufon&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l3.5758j0j7&client=ms-android-samsung&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#istate=lrl:iv&rlimm=4967766002903973658

#66 For those about to flop... on 04.09.18 at 10:49 pm

#61 Smartalox on 04.09.18 at 10:23 pm
Flopper: One to Watch:

This one is in my hood. I saw the sign out front this weekend, and went to the Realtor site to see what it was listed for:

From Zolo, listed as of March 26th at $2.950M: https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/8242-elliott-street

From BC Assessment: $2.260M, with no sale data for the last three years. https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwM0RSQQ==

But I think that this house has been listed before – probably before the cookie-cutter kitchen and bathroom renos.

//////////////////////////

Hey Smartie, I just looked at the ancient sales history and all I could dig up was a sale way back in 1991 for 357k…

M43BC

#67 Victor V on 04.09.18 at 10:51 pm

Someone live-tweeted Pitbull at the Toronto real estate expo

http://www.blogto.com/music/2018/04/someone-live-tweeted-pitbull-toronto-real-estate-conference/

#68 PastThePeak on 04.09.18 at 10:53 pm

#16 AB Boxster on 04.09.18 at 7:10 pm

Canada is soon to become an economic basket case.
No smart company will ever invest in this country again after the Kinder Morgan pipeline dies.

And I think there’s about a 50-50 chance that Alberta gets out of this ‘wonderous confederation’ and either goes it alone, or joins the You-alls.
Right now I’d vote to go.
It might hurt me financially, but my kids would have more opportunity without the stifling stupidity of our feminist leader and his band of merry fools.

T2 has done about all he can to divide the country and destroy the west, much like daddy did.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I hear ya. I live in Ontario, but rural born and raised on a farm. I am firmly on Alberta’s side in this battle. People seem to forget that this was a pipeline that was approved at all levels, including by the former BC government – with KM agreeing to hundreds of provisions from NEB, BC and the Feds. Horgan is full of sh*t.

I don’t know the true legal approach to separation for AB, and whether even a significant minority would want it – but it is time for those that do, to raise the issue everywhere they can. Look at how much $$$ Quebec has been able to get from the rest of the country.

#69 For those about to flop... on 04.09.18 at 10:54 pm

#61 Smartalox on 04.09.18 at 10:23 pm
Flopper: One to Watch:

This one is in my hood. I saw the sign out front this weekend, and went to the Realtor site to see what it was listed for:

From Zolo, listed as of March 26th at $2.950M: https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/8242-elliott-street

From BC Assessment: $2.260M, with no sale data for the last three years. https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwM0RSQQ==

But I think that this house has been listed before – probably before the cookie-cutter kitchen and bathroom renos.

///////////////////////////

Hey Smartie, I just looked at the ancient sales history and all I could dig up was a sale way back in 1991 for 357k…

M43BC

#70 Ian on 04.09.18 at 10:56 pm

I’m balanced all right…90% gold equities and 10% silver equities

#71 For those about to flop... on 04.09.18 at 11:10 pm

I could dig up was a sale way back in 1991 for 357k…

//////////////////////

Ahhhh,1991.

I was a second year apprentice and had just started going to pubs and clubs despite not quite being 18,checking out all the fine…

My wife is coming down the hall….gotta go…

M43BC

#72 akashic record on 04.09.18 at 11:15 pm

#65 Smoking Man on 04.09.18 at 10:49 pm

Need to keep a close eye on these guys. Thier getting too close to the truth. I live close by.

https://www.google.com/search?q=moufon&oq=moufon&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l3.5758j0j7&client=ms-android-samsung&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#istate=lrl:iv&rlimm=4967766002903973658

—-

Yo… are you still on Chrome?!

#73 Ronaldo on 04.09.18 at 11:30 pm

#31 TnT on 04.09.18 at 8:28 pm

#19 Trumpocalypse2018 on 04.09.18 at 7:27 pm

Hey Trumpocalypse, I think your first warning was back on Jan 29th 2017

****
#3 Trumpocalypse2017 on 01.29.17 at 3:29 pm

Massive protests again today in Washington and across the USA.

The “Trump bump”, ironically, will historically only refer to the period when he was not even in office!!

The rest will be unfolding chapters of chaos and destruction.

And war?

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2017/01/29/the-rich-the-rest-3/

*****

It’s been over a year of warnings… you might one day be correct… I hope not…

Thanks for the heads up.

I grant you the rest of the year off buddy…

Get outside and enjoy what we currently have :)

Cheers!
—————————————————————–
Back on the farm in Sask. about 60 some years ago the JW’s would drop by from time to time predicting the end of the world on a certain date. The dates came and went year after year and nothing happened. Still waiting. How are things in the bunker?

#74 Junior Juice on 04.09.18 at 11:33 pm

Can anyone point me to an ETF that captures the Canadian Provincial Bond Index for the 3% allocation recommended?

The best option I seem to be able to find are ZPS, ZMP, and ZPL, but I have no idea whether I should be short, medium or long on these provincial bonds

#75 TRUMP on 04.09.18 at 11:35 pm

AND the Winner is……!!!!!!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-president-vows-to-cut-tariffs-on-car-imports-further-open-markets-report-2018-04-09?mod=bnbh

#76 Entrepreneur on 04.09.18 at 11:36 pm

To all those who think a real estate contract should be honoured and since real estate is not refundable maybe the contract should not be run by ruthless-gangster-style realtors. And get a deal no-matter what.

BC had their mills shut down (raw logs shipped to other countries), several ships built in Germany and several ships in Poland (BC Liberals) so where do people go to get jobs, pipeline and Alberta. Or go back to school for another career.

So when Notley mentions job lose, BC has lost for decades. (And oh, btw, with the mill shut down it sure looks good on those emission stats.)

The National Energy Board, created by Pierre Trudeau when he was PM, a plan in the making to make it legal.

#77 Fake News Again on 04.09.18 at 11:37 pm

PastThePeak on 04.09.18 at 4:23 pm
#168 Fake News Again on 04.09.18 at 2:18 pm
….
________

1. Not everyone can be an engineer or business owner.

2. I would be curious on what percentage of your rich friends are “proxiy” Govt workers AKA contractors that “mostly” get Govt contracts like boat builders, road builders, bridge builders etc etc…….think of bum-bardier and SNC Lavland. Gee….they happen to be from money sucking Quebec of course.

Know any “actual” creators of wealth that don’t suck on the public teat?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

God you are stupid! Obviously suffering from reading comprehension. Do I know any actual creators wealth – how about the ones I mentioned, you f***ing idiot.

Engineers that work in the telecom sector, that build the internet and mobile networks create wealth dingbat. Sales at the mobile carriers, marketing contractors for small tech companies. Even someone who runs sales education in the the marijuana sector.

Based on your commentary, I am guessing you are a loser that offers no value. You certainly don’t on this site.

______

HAHHAHA- Telecom – only 2nd to GOVT for being the biggest RIP OFF industry in Canada where Canadians pay the highest prices in the world.

#78 FATLADY on 04.09.18 at 11:42 pm

“Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they’re doing.” Warren Buffett

“Stay within your circle of competence and when the opportnuity arises bet heavily when the odds are in your favour.” Charlie Munger

#79 30 yr horizon on 04.09.18 at 11:58 pm

#17

If you can guarantee that you will absolutely not touch your money for 30+ years, then by all means, go 100% stocks.

Never in the history of stock markets has a crash lasted that long.

Also, you get paid dividends each and every year, regardless of what the stock is valued at.

But frankly, not many people can make that guarantee. You could get sick, need to buy a home, start a business. When that happens during market crash, it sucks.

#80 cultural elitist on 04.10.18 at 12:10 am

@#62 Past the Peak
“You must be young or foolish if you think the government should start running more things…”

Nice. Ad hominems. Must be because you don’t have anything meaningful to respond with.

Government runs things (both well and badly) all the time. You got clean water coming out of your tap at home? Thank “government”! You got regular electricity in your province? Safe and reliable transportation infrastructure? I could go on …
See here for billions of dollars worth of examples (some private, some public, some mixed):
https://top100projects.ca/2018filters/

All I’m saying is that if Canadian governments really consider this pipeline to be in the national interest, then they could fund it, own it and control it themselves. That would appease some objectors, because (presumably) the government will be a more reliable environmental steward than a private company.

I’m no expert, and anyway, it’s moot, because that would take some vision and political courage from Ottawa. Things government used to have, sadly. I wonder whose fault that is?

#81 Re: Smartalox on 04.10.18 at 12:13 am

#61

Elliot st was sold in ’91 for $357K.
If they get it: +726% in 27 years.

8.14% per year, tax free.
Pretty good, better than the stock market, which is not tax-free.

https://www.propertyinsight.ca/8242-elliott-street-vancouver-bc-yghhxwyfwwt1

#82 Ex-Cowtown on 04.10.18 at 12:18 am

And Otis Redding saw it all first:

Sittin’ on the dock at James Bay

Watching no gas comin’ our way

5 bucks a liter will be

Just be a me- emory

Notley’s gonna screw the taps down

Real tiiiiiii-iight.

Looks like Horgan’s gonna cry

Weaver will pout and whine

They’ll be both be walking home

In the bike laaaaane.

Yeah.

#83 40somethingmarriedman on 04.10.18 at 12:22 am

#70

haha, right on brother..

i’m only 20% in Precious metals.. 20% oil.. 10% BB.. 40% conservative HFs..

#84 jacetheace on 04.10.18 at 12:28 am

Hey Garth, I have been a faithful lurker for many years – you can verify by checking with your server log. Thanks for your ongoing advice. But here’s my one advice to you. Just set up an ETF with Ryan et al and the blog dogs would subscribe. Saves a lot of hassle.

Names for the EFT? Greater Fool Balanced Portfolio, Sir Garth Turner ETF, Garth and Ryan ETF … dogs, any other suggestions to brand this ETF?

#85 Smartalox on 04.10.18 at 12:37 am

Hi Flopper,

Thanks for checking. I’m not surprised that house hasn’t sold in more than 25 years, the decor in some of the pictures shows it.

I do think that it’s been listed before, maybe mid to late last year, likely by a different agency.

I was curious to see if the price had changed – it’s quite high for the neighbourhood.

#86 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.10.18 at 12:50 am

@#60 Mountain Zen Camper
“Thanks Duke for making me 3rd stupidest person on this blog….”
+++++++

ahahahaha
Nah, yer waaaay down the list.
Lots of blog dawgs in front of you

#87 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 12:55 am

There called orange plasma fliers.

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article193899204.html

Electro magnetic either reaction. Don’t leave home without one.

#88 SoggyShorts on 04.10.18 at 1:24 am

this mix has retained virtually all of its 11% advance in 2017.- Garth
**************************
So if I’m down 1.3% in the first 3 months, I’m doing ok?

I only started investing post 2008, so having my pf go down at all is new (and kinda icky)

#89 Myra Andrews on 04.10.18 at 1:27 am

Greater Vancouver Stats from realtor Paul Boenisch

April 6/9 New 382 Sold 117 TI: 9450
April 5 New 268 Sold 164 TI: 9264
April 4 New 324 Sold 154 TI: 9204
April 3 New 538 Sold 131 TI: 9104

Mar 26-29 New 793 Sold 455 TI: 9032
Mar 19-23 New 1041 Sold 617 TI: 8916
Mar 12-16 New 1147 Sold 682 TI: 8743
Mar 5-9 New 1101 Sold 542 TI: 8510

#90 You know val on 04.10.18 at 2:31 am

So Garth what do you do with the single digit increase to the portfolio?? Can I take it off the table? At will?

#91 AGuyInVancouver on 04.10.18 at 2:55 am

#59 Past the Peak
Do some research. The original TransMountain pipeline was championed by the USA to get oil to the West Coast. Built by that unholy alliance of Standard Oil and Bechtel.

It was never meant to transport diluted bitumen that would be shipped out through the narrow passages of Vancouver Harbour and Georgia Strait.

#92 2nd Mortgages GTA on 04.10.18 at 3:00 am

pool of second mortgage lenders is very familiar with GTA real estate. Besides having shorter turnaround time, reasonable rates we also ensure to have fair associated terms and conditions for all parties involved. Second mortgages GTA has access to private cash investors.

For more details visit : http://www.2ndmortgagegta.com

#93 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 3:02 am

Made it to the bottom of a 40 ounces in one sitting. I can still type and finally realized there is no money on truth telling. It’s an obstical of epic proportions.

Best to fit into the community narative and exploit the shit out of stupid sobar people.

Ze She or something like that. Need more practice.

#94 NoName on 04.10.18 at 3:14 am

And just when I thought, never mind…

Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/home-values-are-rising-by-800-a-day-in-san-jose

#95 Gravy Train on 04.10.18 at 6:52 am

#42 Smoking Man on 04.09.18 at 9:09 pm
“Mu[e]ller raids [T]rump[’]s personal lawyer[’s] office. A crime.” Who are you saying has committed a crime? Trump or the FBI? If you were articulate, Smokey, you’d be dangerous! :)

“3rd and 4th amendment. What ever happen[e]d to client[-]attorney priv[i]l[e]ge.” Have you even read the Third Amendment, you doofus? It reads: ‘No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.’ As to the Fourth Amendment, the FBI had a warrant, you imbecile! And the attorney-client privilege does not apply when the communication was made for the purpose of committing a crime or tort!

“Hung[a]ry votes out globalism. Soros getting desp[e]r[a]t[e].” Smokey, you do know that Victor Orban is an antidemocratic, anti-immigrant, authoritarian, right-wing extremist, populist nutjob (just like Donald Trump), don’t you? Oh, you do know! :)

“It’s polarizing big[-]time now and getting dang[er]ous to be a free thinker.” Are you saying that you are capable of thinking, let alone free thought? Don’t flatter yourself! :)

#96 Attom on 04.10.18 at 7:07 am

I’d argue the average amateur investor needs to keep things as simple as possible. Vanguard VBAL for example is an all-in-one fund that matches Garth’s 60/40 balanced portfolio but rebalances itself.
I recently cut my portfolio down to a single bond fund ZAG, one for Canada ZCN, one American VAB, along with the rest of the world XEF, XEC. Preferreds and REITs offer very little extra diversification and can be omitted while still having an overall portfolio that achieves 6-7% growth per year

Small portfolios require fewer positions. Once you have a significant amount, greater diversification helps retain wealth and smooth volatility. – Garth

#97 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 04.10.18 at 7:15 am

Malaysia will curtail real estate ownership from China

https://www.propertyguru.com.my/property-news/2018/4/170869/forest-city-flats-too-expensive-for-malaysians-say?utm_source=pgmy-newsalert&utm_medium=edm&utm_campaign=dailynews-10Apr2018&utm_content=links

PM says foreigners making property too expensive for Malaysians. Add Malaysia to the long list of countries who no longer think foreign money is a panacea for local governments to hide overspending.

#98 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 04.10.18 at 7:21 am

PS…..#5 stockpicker is not “the stockpicker”……it’s flattering to spit out a clone though.

#99 Victor V on 04.10.18 at 7:23 am

Condo cancellation at Vaughan Metropolitan Centre leaves buyers ‘in the dust’

https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/04/09/condo-cancellation-at-vaughan-metropolitan-centre-leaves-buyers-in-the-dust.html

#100 Gravy Train on 04.10.18 at 7:25 am

#45 Big Kahuna on 04.09.18 at 9:25 pm
“Trump has started a trade war—Communist [d]ictatorship of China is as pure as the driven snow in this regard…. The sheep barely even remember this was supposedly about Russia—jeez.”

Obvious sarcasm. However, you do know that Russia is also a Communist dictatorship, don’t you? No? You don’t? Dumb as a brick! :)

#101 Another Deckchair on 04.10.18 at 8:10 am

@91 AGuyInVancouver

Question – what is this “Oil” that you are referring to?

Oil paint? Canola oil? Baby oil? used 10W40? Can you please explain? People use the term “oil” as if it was some element like “gold” or “carbon”.

Feel free to get technical – Molecular structures, no problems, you should be able to throw in a few Lewis structure diagrams here, if you can get the correct character representations in HTML.

#102 the Jaguar on 04.10.18 at 8:12 am

@68 Past the Peak

“””I hear ya. I live in Ontario, but rural born and raised on a farm. I am firmly on Alberta’s side in this battle. People seem to forget that this was a pipeline that was approved at all levels, including by the former BC government – with KM agreeing to hundreds of provisions from NEB, BC and the Feds. Horgan is full of sh*t.

I don’t know the true legal approach to separation for AB, and whether even a significant minority would want it – but it is time for those that do, to raise the issue everywhere they can. Look at how much $$$ Quebec has been able to get from the rest of the country.”””

People in BC might want to fill up their tanks.
Read Andrew Coyne’s column in the National Post this morning. Last paragraph. Sounds like a good idea to me. And maybe a boycott on wine again. And vacation elsewhere this summer and sell off all those “speculator properties” owned in the BC interior where jobs have never been plentiful.
Albertans would never vote to leave this country. They are proud canadians. But they aren’t quitters and they won’t be intimidated by the bully tactics of BC government. And Alberta has the memory of an elephant. Quebec will learn that lesson as well. Just a matter of time.

#103 Hamsterwheelie on 04.10.18 at 8:21 am

All eggs in baskets – that would be us. Here’s why, start with a mere $10,000 saved and buy a big house to live in – enjoy your castle for a while & then increase mortgage to free up some funds to buy another house etc. Its the leverage- for those of us on the fringes. No other situation allows you to borrow a purchase as large as a house and sell it (if you wait & if you didnt buy something silly) at a gain. Cars certainly don’t reap those rewards even after paying for maintenance, new tires, insurance, taxes and gas (parallel maintenance, different price, to a house) The huddled masses, myself included, can ascribe to this blog for spice, for flavour but it doesn’t make a meal of our finances because few us have enough meat to invest. I certainly look forward to that day and its an interesting journey towards cashing out, or continuing to live off rental income while spending winters abroad & occasionally checking investments online. Thanks for all the fish.

#104 Heloguy on 04.10.18 at 8:23 am

#93 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 3:02 am

“Best to fit into the community narative and exploit the shit out of stupid sobar people.”

Pretty much the way to succeed in the world of today. Thanks SM. Great comment.

#105 Martin on 04.10.18 at 8:38 am

Wow! Thank you Garth for these specific details-Free! It’s tough for a poor Schmuck like myself to figure out what a diversified portfolio really looks like at anyone time.
Cheers.

#106 TurnerNation on 04.10.18 at 8:43 am

#43 crossbordershopper

Always solid posts from you. The system is against us no matter how hard our tax farm owners explain and sell otherwise. Every man for himself – or else.

#107 TurnerNation on 04.10.18 at 8:59 am

There was a time when only Kings, Queens had court jesters as entertainment along with vast spreads of food and drink. Oh how they supped.

Today our rulers convinced us we’re kings.
500 channels and unlimited streaming content on hand.
All you can eat buffets.
Endless contests of sport put on by billionaire owners with their multi millionaire golden players.

Entertain me dammit, I’m the king.

#108 James on 04.10.18 at 9:12 am

#95 Gravy Train on 04.10.18 at 6:52 am
#42 Smoking Man on 04.09.18 at 9:09 pm
“Mu[e]ller raids [T]rump[’]s personal lawyer[’s] office. A crime.” Who are you saying has committed a crime? Trump or the FBI? If you were articulate, Smokey, you’d be dangerous! :)
“3rd and 4th amendment. What ever happen[e]d to client[-]attorney priv[i]l[e]ge.” Have you even read the Third Amendment, you doofus? It reads: ‘No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.’ As to the Fourth Amendment, the FBI had a warrant, you imbecile! And the attorney-client privilege does not apply when the communication was made for the purpose of committing a crime or tort!
“Hung[a]ry votes out globalism. Soros getting desp[e]r[a]t[e].” Smokey, you do know that Victor Orban is an antidemocratic, anti-immigrant, authoritarian, right-wing extremist, populist nutjob (just like Donald Trump), don’t you? Oh, you do know! :)
“It’s polarizing big[-]time now and getting dang[er]ous to be a free thinker.” Are you saying that you are capable of thinking, let alone free thought? Don’t flatter yourself! :)
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Smoking dickheads first declaration out of his mouth was a typical knee jerk reaction that echoed Donald J Trump’s exact words from his White House Press Statement yesterday. On Monday April 9th, Trump called the raid a “disgraceful situation” and “an attack on our country.”
What he (Trump) and (Smoking Dickhead) failed to realize is that obtaining a warrant for a search on an attorney’s office is like getting water from a stone. The evidence would have to go before a judge via the AG office and would have to displayed as trail of evidence leading to presumed criminal activity. Mueller has now developed evidence sufficient to persuade a federal judge that there is “probable cause” to believe that Cohen has in his possession evidence of a crime The fact that the search warrant was obtained and executed by the US Attorney for the Southern District rather than by the Office of Special Counsel Mueller clearly indicates that the special counsel was well aware that he was proceeding in a new direction that could subject him to criticism that he was exceeding his mandate.
It is also clear that if a prosecutor becomes aware of the commission of any crime, he has the lawful duty to follow the evidence. Mueller (or his supervisor Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein) appears to have acted sensibly in referring the matter to the leading federal law enforcement official locally, the Manhattan based US Attorney, for proper follow-up.
The Judge would have reviewed the evidence and granted an Search warrant. By the way all of the people involved were Trump appointees. So Donald J trump sealed his own fate when he hand picked them!

#109 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 9:36 am

Hey Alberta. T2s principle advisor.
Likes the thought of putting us back into the stone age.

Let’s make Saudi Arabia great again.

https://youtu.be/lWXRK4ffEH4

#110 Victor V on 04.10.18 at 9:48 am

Bank of Canada’s latest indicator cliches it — interest rates are going up soon

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canadas-latest-indicator-cliches-it-interest-rates-are-going-up-soon

#111 PastThePeak on 04.10.18 at 9:49 am

#80 cultural elitist on 04.10.18 at 12:10 am
@#62 Past the Peak
“You must be young or foolish if you think the government should start running more things…”

Nice. Ad hominems. Must be because you don’t have anything meaningful to respond with.

Government runs things (both well and badly) all the time. You got clean water coming out of your tap at home? Thank “government”! You got regular electricity in your province? Safe and reliable transportation infrastructure? I could go on …
See here for billions of dollars worth of examples (some private, some public, some mixed):
https://top100projects.ca/2018filters/

All I’m saying is that if Canadian governments really consider this pipeline to be in the national interest, then they could fund it, own it and control it themselves. That would appease some objectors, because (presumably) the government will be a more reliable environmental steward than a private company.

I’m no expert, and anyway, it’s moot, because that would take some vision and political courage from Ottawa. Things government used to have, sadly. I wonder whose fault that is?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

You must be from generation Snowflake if you consider “young or foolish” to be an ad hominem attack.

To answer your points – yes it is true that the government can run services – they are just inefficient and expensive, with often low quality of service. If there is no consideration for cost, then yes, they can muddle through.

The Ontario government through crown corps runs much of the electricity service. In the past 14 years, when looking at both electricity rates and distribution charges, the price to consumers has tripled (up over 300%). It became so bad the government had to borrow $25B to temporarily lower the price, they can screwed up so badly. Projections for the future are for more of the same.

Most provinces have liquor sales monopolies. Yes, they are able to sell alcohol (the job gets done), but at prices which are higher than most other places around the world, with much less selection. I guess I should be grateful that the LCBO cashier is making $25/hour.

All Canadian governments, at all levels, are running deficits with large accumulated debts. That speaks to their ability to “run things” sustainably.

Finally, there is an inherit conflict of interest when the regulator (who say is responsible for verifying environmental compliance) and the operator are both “the government”.

#112 not so liquid in calgary on 04.10.18 at 9:58 am

@ Homeless in BC — and other chemicals that are more explosive than gasoline

——————————————————————————

many things are more explosive than gasoline. Dust is 7 times more flammable than gasoline. And as for ADM, 77.7% is owned by institutional investors.
Where do you get your information that Americans/Saudis own it?? It is US based, and I believe Mulroney is still a board member. Why should it matter who owns it?

#113 For those about to flop... on 04.10.18 at 10:01 am

18 at 12:37 am
Hi Flopper,

Thanks for checking. I’m not surprised that house hasn’t sold in more than 25 years, the decor in some of the pictures shows it.

I do think that it’s been listed before, maybe mid to late last year, likely by a different agency.

I was curious to see if the price had changed – it’s quite high for the neighbourhood.

//////////////////////

Hey Smartie,here is some recent listing prices for that house.

It appears that they always intended to go for gold.

That is a Westside price.

If that house goes for 2.9 ,in this deteriorating market ,then I will know that it’s time to head back to Tasmania as the new owners will have rabies and I don’t want them to bite me when I’m at the supermarket…

M43BC

8242 Elliott Street, Vancouver, BC, V5S 2P2

2017-01-09 : $2,968,000
2017-07-31 : $2,890,000
2018-03-27 : $2,950,000

#114 IMHO on 04.10.18 at 10:05 am

#47 All ‘Balanced’ means is when the market falls, your portfolio will fall equally.

Buying into any asset class (RE, Dow, Nasdaq, Vintage Art/Ferrari’s, Bitcoins, Tulips…at their highs is a warning that should be heeded – not talked around.

That’s why you buy multiple asset classes. – Garth

Garth – you know better than to advise anyone to buy into a bubble….be it RE or your favored stocks/bonds.

#115 not so liquid in calgary on 04.10.18 at 10:08 am

Fraser Columbian on 04.09.18 at 8:59 pm
@ #30 Homeless in BC

Amen!
Alberta shot itself in the foot a long time ago…

—————————————————————————

great! than neither of you will mind if we (AB) take our bat, ball, gloves, and bases and ‘go on our own way’

#116 Terry on 04.10.18 at 10:09 am

Debt is at all time highs, this will end. You can only borrow so much, so long, and eventually you can’t borrow anymore and have to start paying back, or declare bankruptcy and not be able to borrow again for years. I see some high dual income people read this blog, but the majority of Canadians hardly make enough to get by, even with 2 incomes, and if your on one income, well, your in the poor house. Wages here are still in the dark ages when compared to cost of living. At some point everyone has to accept this, it isn’t a matter of “if” but “When” it all crashes down. When tradesmen with a steady job, considered middle class (like that exists anymore) can’t afford a house, there’s something seriously wrong in the country that will change.

#117 For those about to flop... on 04.10.18 at 10:31 am

I fear my Rheumatoid arthritis and busted ankles are going to harm my chances of becoming an Agile coach…

M43BC

“These are the Hottest Jobs in U.S. in 2018: Lots of Openings and Dream Salaries

Technology stocks are taking a beating right now, especially the biggest companies in the market, but, despite the current news cycle, economists predict that the technology sector will continue to produce substantial growth over the long haul. Most importantly, this segment of the economy will continue to provide solid, high paying jobs. Our new graph indicates what sectors lead the list of best jobs.

We gathered the data from Indeed, which analyzed two factors to determine what counts as a good job. First, the base salary must be at least $75,000, well above the national average of around $47,000. Second, the jobs must be in a high-growth sector with lots of opportunities to enter the field (e.g., astronauts and professional sports players aren’t eligible). Indeed analyzed their own numbers to see how those high-paying positions had expanded on their own site since 2014. We used this information to create a hierarchy by salary range: the highest earners are on top and the lowest are on the bottom. We then color-coded each figure to represent the historical rate of growth over the past three years. We also correlated the size of the figure with the base salary, creating an easy to understand graph of the best jobs in the U.S. today.

Here are the top ten “best” jobs ranked in order of base salary, together with the position’s historical job growth:

1. Machine learning engineer: $136,241 with 166% growth

2. Data scientist: $132,915 with 106% growth

3. Optometrist: $131,692 with 118% growth

4. Computer vision engineer: $131,297 with 169% growth

5. Development operations engineer: $125,714 with 91% growth

6. Agile coach: $120,142 with 80% growth

7. Chief estimator: $116,848 with 101% growth

8. Full stack developer: $111,640 with 198% growth

9. Head of sales: $108,788 with 42% growth

10. Staff pharmacist: $107,584 with 42% growth

From a visual perspective, one thing immediately stands out on our graph. The top half of the pyramid contains the most purple figures when compared to the bottom, which is mostly green. In other words, most of the highest-paying jobs have also been the fastest growing. This makes a certain amount of sense since employers seeking highly skilled workers are forced to pay a premium for their labor, especially if the number of openings exceed the numbers of qualified applicants. In other words, workers in those industries and positions clearly have the upper hand.

It is also worth noting how many of the highest-paying jobs are in the technology sector. Machine learning engineers ($136,241), data scientists ($132,915), computer vision engineers ($131,297), and full stack developers ($111,640) all work on cutting edge technology. When you see a field with 6-figure average salaries and almost 200% job growth, that’s a clear indication of a technical skills gap. Compare that with the bottom of the pyramid, which is largely comprised of occupations from a variety of industries, including pharmacists, construction managers, and architects. These aren’t bad jobs, but they don’t require the same kind of rigorous high-tech education as many of the high pay/rapid growth jobs in the tech sector.

The big takeaway from our analysis is that if you want a high paying job with lots of professional growth opportunities, you should definitely consider getting a degree in computer science with a specialty in engineering or data science. These positions are primed for substantial expansion in both wages and opportunity in the years ahead.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/there-are-the-hottest-jobs-in-us-2018-lots-of-opening-and-dream-salaries

#118 Howard on 04.10.18 at 10:49 am

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/how-fund-my-daughters-friends-condo-downpayment-2185251/

How to fund my daughter’s and friend’s condo downpayment?

Now, my daughter decides to buy a condo to live for the next 3 years partly as investment, but she intends to move back to the replacement rental unit in the newly-constructed building later (“because cheap rent under rent control would continue to apply to her 2-bedroom replacement unit in the newly constructed building”?) and leave the purchased condo to her friend to live and rent out.

My daughter has asked my wife to gift her 80% of the condo downpayment, and loan the 20% downpayment interest free to her friend.

Even I’m starting to dislike Millennials when I read stories of young people harrassing their parents for a down payment handout.

#119 Ugh on 04.10.18 at 10:56 am

Ugh, pretty disgusting advertisement by realtors:

https://www.straight.com/news/1055101/port-moody-real-estate-teams-born-here-advertisement-plays-foreign-buyer-fears

#120 ThinkingMan on 04.10.18 at 11:03 am

Some posters here consume way too mainstream media and do not rationalize things. Just pause and think folks.

#121 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.10.18 at 11:30 am

However, you do know that Russia is also a Communist dictatorship, don’t you? No? You don’t? Dumb as a brick! :)
……………………..

Putin was elected with 76% of the popular vote. Turdo was elected with 39% of the popular vote, leaving 61% of Canadian voters disenfranchised. I am struggling with that.

#122 Johnny D on 04.10.18 at 11:33 am

@#30 Homeless in BC on 04.09.18 at 8:19 pm

As for Kinder Morgan, do you remember the tanker that caught fire and burned for a week before it exploded and sank off the coast of China about a month ago? It contained gas condensate. That is the stuff that is used to dilute bitumen. It contains benzene, hexane, toluene and other chemicals that are more explosive than gasoline and the vapors affect your central nervous system causing paralysis and death. This pipeline is 36 inches in diameter, delivering 98,000 litres a minute at 900psi flowing at approx. 15 klms an hour. When the pipe gets breached do you think it might be a bit more than “a spill”?
Lets put 5 million barrels of this stuff on a mountain above your house and next to a 30,000 kid university in your area. It’s ok because Texas company KM wants to make a profit, Albertans want to buy pick up trucks and Lord Farquaad says “It is safe”
I will end now, before I tell you what I really think. Thanks to Garth and company for great advice and an opportunity to rant

—————————————————————————————-

Do you know the standards and specs that a pipeline has to meet to exist nowadays? Take it from someone who works in the industry, your fear mongering might work for some naive teenager, but it sounds foolish to everyone else.

#123 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 04.10.18 at 11:45 am

#79 30 yr horizon on 04.09.18 at 11:58 pm
#17

If you can guarantee that you will absolutely not touch your money for 30+ years, then by all means, go 100% stocks.
Never in the history of stock markets has a crash lasted that long.
Also, you get paid dividends each and every year, regardless of what the stock is valued at.
……………………………..
That has been my strategy and it has worked out well for me.
My stocks prices go up and down with the markets but the dividends keep right on coming every quarter. I have been retired for 9 years and have yet to take a dividend, I just buy more of the same stock……maybe some day my grandkids will be able to buy an igloo somewhere.

#124 Dissident on 04.10.18 at 12:19 pm

Anyone a Silicon Valley fan? Just watched the latest episode and Gilfoyle (such a jerk and one of my fave characters) uses the intro of Napalm’s Death “You Suffer” as an alert for when Bitcoin value changes so he can toggle his remote mining setup…his justification “Its very volatile”… :D Just watch it. You’re welcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=59&v=81zBnjh2VT8

#125 Fraser Columbian on 04.10.18 at 12:19 pm

@ #115 not so liquid in Calgary

What good is a frozen landlocked rectangular petro-state?

The idea of Alberta leaving Canada is absurd. Nobody would instigate it because nobody wants it. It’s just daft to even propose, and wouldn’t benefit either Alberta or North America. A minor understanding of global politics would make this readily apparent in anyone who has ‘Alberta separatist’ (eye-roll) yearnings. Can we please end this narrative? It reduces any actual dialogue to the realm of stupidity.

#126 fancy_pants on 04.10.18 at 12:43 pm

Canada is on a collision course with stagflation.

Heavy tax burdens, strict regulations and high minimum wages chase away job creation. Suppressed rates beckon inflation. Large deficits ensure the downward spiral continues. All the ingredients are there. My guess is T2 will exit stage left just before it gets really messy.

#127 For those about to flop... on 04.10.18 at 12:45 pm

Paging Crowdie to the blog…

M43BC

RCMP investigate suspicious fire in North Burnaby.

“Kirk also said RCMP were called in to investigate, as they believe the fire is suspicious.”

“We’ve had a spike of fires in this area,” he said. “It doesn’t start by itself at 2:30 in the morning.”

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4610282?__twitter_impression=true

#128 Smartalox on 04.10.18 at 12:46 pm

Thanks to Flop and the helpful stranger at #81.

Looks like it’s it’s been a tough sell for that house, didn’t sell when listed in 2017, so they did a quick remodel to try and ‘add value’.

Evidently not a flip, so maybe not suitable for a Pink post. Thanks!

#129 Jack Daniels on 04.10.18 at 12:50 pm

#93 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 3:02 am

Made it to the bottom of a 40 ounces in one sitting. I can still type and finally realized there is no money on truth telling. It’s an obstical of epic proportions.
Best to fit into the community narative and exploit the shit out of stupid sobar people.
Ze She or something like that. Need more practice.
________________________________________
Bravo! bravo to stupidity, Certainly, there are videos of idiots allegedly doing this on Youtube and I’m surprised I haven’t heard of any fatalities as a result. Alcohol poisoning can kill you, it all depends on 1) how large you are (how much blood you have to poison) and 2) how quickly the ocean of hooch would be processed by your abraded stomach, then filtered by your overtaxed, screaming-for-mercy liver and 3) how much would remain in your stomach after you vomit post-chug, probably in an explosive manner. There’s also the matter of your titanically depressed central nervous system being able to allow you to vomit safely after consuming the equivalent of an entire case of beer in 60 seconds. But then that’s how natural selection works, I guess.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/man-downs-entire-bottle-jack-4162961

#130 sippycupkid on 04.10.18 at 12:56 pm

not sure what FOMO is but let me know right away as I have this fear of missing out on things

#131 patrick on 04.10.18 at 12:57 pm

@102 the Jaguar

//Albertans would never vote to leave this country.

Not a majority- true.

I would likely vote to leave if given the opportunity. Although I love parts of Canada, it is massively dysfunctional and too geographically expansive to be governed effectively by the current federation.

Others might share this view if our insular media didn’t focus so much on how we `are not the USA` as though this is a virtuous attribute. We are as blinded by propaganda as any other nation- particularly at the coastal extremities.

Nationhood or Statehood would ultimately be a boon for the landlocked, highly productive western provinces.

Thankfully, we as individuals can still decide where to live that best reflect our values and beliefs.

@125 Fraser

Alberta is already a landlocked petro state- separation wouldn’t change that.

Please educate us who are so uneducated in global politics why it is so patently absurd? Awaiting what is sure to be a vastly enlightening paragraph.

#132 Newcomer on 04.10.18 at 1:15 pm

#116 Terry on 04.10.18 at 10:09 am
Debt is at all time highs, this will end. You can only borrow so much, so long, and eventually you can’t borrow anymore and have to start paying back, or declare bankruptcy and not be able to borrow again for years.
—–

I’m not a fan of debt, but when you are looking at the economy, don’t forget the possibility of inflation. If inflation (including wages) were are 10%, in seven years people would owe half what they do now. Inflation is usually the magical ingredient that keeps debt from growing until it swallows the economy. It has been MIA lately, but could still ride in and save the day.

#133 not so liquid in calgary on 04.10.18 at 1:16 pm

Fraser Columbian on 04.10.18 at 12:19 pm

and yet you felt compelled to respond…concerns?

#134 Ian on 04.10.18 at 1:21 pm

Atlanta Fed Q1 GDP growth update:

Now at 2.0%. Trending down like The Snowboarder’s approval rating.

Guaranteed to go much lower too.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=fa9ccf1bede04c3b8a3ac751883e58a93

#135 LivinLarge on 04.10.18 at 1:23 pm

“Don’t just be fixated on Trump – look at how what he does gives latitude to the other players on the planet.”…and he certainly seems determined to create as many short selling opps as humanly possible.

#136 LivinLarge on 04.10.18 at 1:27 pm

“Even I’m starting to dislike Millennials when I read stories of young people harrassing their parents for a down payment handout.”…and the word “no” has one less letter than “yes”.

#137 Victor V on 04.10.18 at 1:57 pm

Cracks are starting to show in Canadians’ credit quality, RBC warns

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/cracks-starting-to-show-in-canadian-credit-quality-rbc-says

The quality of Canadian consumer credit is beginning to deteriorate, according to Royal Bank of Canada credit analyst Vivek Selot.

The roll rate — the percentage of credit card users who “roll” from early stage delinquencies to 60-89 day delinquencies — reached the highest since 2008 for one credit card program, while delinquencies for another program were above the 10-year average, Selot said in a monthly analysis of credit securitization programs.

“Cracks are starting to show in more and more places,” Selot said Monday in a note to clients. He declined to comment further.

#138 Entrepreneur on 04.10.18 at 2:08 pm

#122 Johnny D. mentions about the “standards and specs of the pipeline” and probably true but does not hold true to #30 Homeless in BC saying about the tanker that went down in China. There is a difference there that should be “recognized and addressed,” a big difference.

As I blogged in #76 the jobs that were shipped out of BC over the decades should be “recognized and addressed.” How does this help the taxpayers of BC? It doesn’t! We are out of a job so who benefits? The investors, the leaders, mostly!

Call it globalization, protectionism, anything you want but it should be “recognized and addressed.” No more pretending and ignoring the taxpayers/workers within a border.

Shed me a tear Alberta but BC tears have been ignored. We have lost for decades, “ignored and silenced.”

I guess we just have to ride our bicycles more, much more healthier for us and air.

#139 jess on 04.10.18 at 2:45 pm

are pipes passe

Earlier this year CN (TSX:CNR) unveiled the technology, called CanaPux, which turns bitumen into a semi-solid for transportation by mixing and coating it with polymer.

The railway says CanaPux meets rigorous strength requirements for bulk transport, float in water and do not leak or dissolve — presenting minimal risk of contamination to oceans, lakes and rivers.

CN says project to ship oil pellets has potential to unlock offshore …
business.financialpost.com/…/cn-says-project-to-ship-oil-pellets-has-potential-to-unlock-…
Dec 22, 2017 – CN has selected Calgary-headquartered Toyo Engineering Canada Ltd. to design and build the pilot project to produce CanaPux pellets. As part of the pilot, Toyo will create equipment that can solidify and re-liquefy up to 1,000 barrels of bitumen per day. CN says it is creating a presentation centre where …
New technology converting crude oil into solid pellets may prevent oil …
https://www.thestar.com/…/new-technology-converting-crude-oil-into-solid-pellets-ma…

Sep 6, 2017

#140 jess on 04.10.18 at 2:54 pm

Residents of Flint already had multiple sources of pollution to contend with when the incinerator arrived, but the EPA only focused on pollution from the incinerator itself, not the cumulative impacts of placing it near other sources.
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/44082-court-rules-epa-unlawfully-delayed-environmental-racism-investigations-for-decades

Shell predicted it would get sued over climate change back in ’98.

Now, those lawsuits are here, and that prediction could bite the multinational oil company in the ass.

A treasure trove of documents released Thursday provide new evidence that Shell, like Exxon, has been gaslighting the public for decades. The documents, dating as far back as 1988, foretold “violent and damaging storms,” and said that “it would be tempting for society to wait until then before doing anything.”

At that point, the documents predicted, “a coalition of environmental NGOs brings a class-action suit against the U.S. government and fossil-fuel companies on the grounds of neglecting what scientists (including their own) have been saying for years: that something must be done.” Sound familiar?

http://climateinvestigations.org/shell-oil-climate-documents/
Climate Science

What did Shell know and when? These documents highlight Shell’s knowledge of climate science, the dominant role of fossil fuels in carbon pollution (including the quantification of Shell’s contribution), and the implications to society and the industry.

1988 Shell Confidential Report “The Greenhouse Effect”

Commissioned a “greenhouse effect” report as early as 1981.
“…by the time the global warming becomes detectable it could be too late to take effective countermeasures to reduce the effects or even to stabilize the situation.”(Link)
“Although CO2 is emitted to the atmosphere through several natural processes… the main cause of increasing CO2 concentrations is considered to be fossil fuel burning.” (Link)
Quantified its own products (oil, gas, and coal) were responsible for 4% of total global carbon emissions in 1984. This is one of the earliest examples of carbon accounting by an oil major
Detailed an analysis of potential climate impacts, including rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and human migration.
Pruitt said the Obama-era EPA made unrealistic assumptions. But Oge, who headed the agency’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality for 18 years, said the process relied on information the automakers themselves provided. Pruitt’s statement Monday about his decision, which heavily cites industry groups, is based “not on facts and data but on rhetoric and politics,” she said.

https://www.ecowatch.com/epa-fracking-water-contamination-2144968213.html

https://grist.org/article/zinke-says-the-interior-isnt-censoring-science-the-evidence-begs-to-differ/

#141 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 3:18 pm

James its a total witch hunt that will find nothing.

Your delusional if you think Muller will get Trump. Two dementional chess players like yourself have zero chance of actully seeing the big picture at play.

Your loving dick head
Dr Smoking Man.

#142 Smartalox on 04.10.18 at 3:20 pm

Comrade Horgan set to announce “an upcoming opportunity” for renters and landlords:

http://vancouversun.com/homes/condos/premier-john-horgan-set-to-announce-upcoming-opportunity-for-b-c-renters-and-landlords

A news release issued to media on Tuesday morning said that the announcement would concern an ‘upcoming opportunity for the renters and landlords of British Columbia’, but did not elaborate.

Government-sponsored, landlord-purchased, dedicated rental apartments to be constructed on Kinder Morgan’s right-of-way, perhaps?

#143 [email protected] on 04.10.18 at 3:58 pm

@111 – Past the Peak
You must be from generation Snowflake if you consider “young or foolish” to be an ad hominem attack.

To answer your points – yes it is true that the government can run services – they are just inefficient and expensive, with often low quality of service. If there is no consideration for cost, then yes, they can muddle through.

The Ontario government through crown corps runs much of the electricity service. In the past 14 years, when looking at both electricity rates and distribution charges, the price to consumers has tripled (up over 300%). It became so bad the government had to borrow $25B to temporarily lower the price, they can screwed up so badly. Projections for the future are for more of the same.

Most provinces have liquor sales monopolies. Yes, they are able to sell alcohol (the job gets done), but at prices which are higher than most other places around the world, with much less selection. I guess I should be grateful that the LCBO cashier is making $25/hour.

All Canadian governments, at all levels, are running deficits with large accumulated debts. That speaks to their ability to “run things” sustainably.

Finally, there is an inherit conflict of interest when the regulator (who say is responsible for verifying environmental compliance) and the operator are both “the government”.


Well, now at least we’re talking.

First, ad hominem arguments cast doubt on someone’s character or personal attributes as way to discredit their argument. So it’s accurate. As well as presumptuous, since you know absolutely nothing about me.

Secondly, I agree that governments are often inefficient. But sometimes they are still better than the alternative – especially in socially-sensitive areas.
Is efficiency the only goal of government? Isn’t the role of government to balance social costs and benefits? What’s categorically wrong with increased wages for the working class? These are policy decisions, to be negotiated, not dogmas.

Finally, there is also an inherent conflict of interest with a company whose goal is to maximize profit in an ecologically-sensitive venture. Government has a role to play here. It’s up to Canadians to decide what that role is.

Anyway, I just thought Notley’s suggestion was interesting, and at least has the virtue of being consistent with her statements about the importance of the pipeline to Canada as a whole.

Peace, out.

#144 Big Kahuna on 04.10.18 at 4:13 pm

The desperation from the criminals like Mueller and Rosenstein is palpable-even guys like Dershowitz (who hates Trump) sees it-this one ain’t over by a long shot-its gonna get even dirtier-that swamp doesn’t want draining.

#145 jess on 04.10.18 at 4:35 pm

pennsylvania

Ultimately, the Court said, “In light of the distinctions between hydraulic fracturing and conventional gas drilling, we conclude that the rule of capture does not preclude liability for trespass due to hydraulic fracturing.”

The case has now been remanded to a lower court, which will rule on whether the Briggs are entitled to compensation from Southwestern Energy for trespassing on their property by taking natural gas without a lease. In the meantime, the family has been given the opportunity to further develop their trespass claim, including getting estimates of how far the subsurface fractures and fracking fluid crossed boundary lines into the subsurface of their property.

“I think this potentially has big ramifications for both drilling companies and property owners,” said David E. Hess, the director of policy and communications for Harrisburg-based government affairs law firm Crisci Associates and former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection.

“If on remand the case requires compensation of the adjacent landowner for trespass as defined in the court decision, I think this could open the door to hundreds of potential similar trespass lawsuits filed all across Pennsylvania where unconventional gas well drilling occurs.”

#146 Ronaldo on 04.10.18 at 4:48 pm

#94 NoName on 04.10.18 at 3:14 am

And just when I thought, never mind…

Home Values Are Rising by $800 a Day in San Jose https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/home-values-are-rising-by-800-a-day-in-san-jose
—————————————————————–
Sounds like a lot but percentage wise nothing compared to the lower mainland of Vancouver between Jan. 73 and the Sept. 74 when prices were rising at 4% per month. I know because I was an owner there back then. Then came the crash. Like someone turned off the switch. Instant 18 to 20% drop and it didn’t stop there. Biggest drops happened in West Vancouver where the big guyz lived. Maybe we are about to witness something similar.

#147 Ace Goodheart on 04.10.18 at 5:01 pm

Evaluating the situation with high end houses in posh Toronto neighbourhoods in relation to upside and downside price risk over the past couple of weeks.

I tend to disagree to some extent that prices are either stable or have more upside.

I am in the unusual position of being able to pay cash for a multi million dollar house. However I wouldn’t put my money in such an asset as it appears to me that no one could afford to buy it from me.

Most buyers I find on the high end are coming in with low to medium six figure down payments. Very few can come up with anything in the seven figure range down.

What this means is only about .01% of the population by income can afford the monthly mortgage payments.

It is a rare person who can purchase a home worth more than about 1.2 million dollars. And this situation is going to become even more rare.

It looks to me that high end Toronto houses have excessive downside risk right now and the price pressure is downward.

If you are thinking of making the jump to prime you might want to hold off a few years at least in Toronto

#148 april on 04.10.18 at 5:08 pm

118- Agree.
I totally disagree that young people should be pressuring their parents for a down payment so they can buy a home. If the parents can well afford it and are willing to lend fine but to be pressured by their offspring…. no, no, no! These people have lots of yrs ahead to buy a home, they just need to stop listening to the real estate industries spin, lies, and half truths. Too many of these young people seem to feel so entitled and the gullible parents, who also believe real estate spin, give in. I have no sympathy for them.

#149 Gravy Train on 04.10.18 at 5:48 pm

#63 akashic record on 04.09.18 at 10:24 pm
“[Jeff] Sessions[’s] days are numbered.”

Are you suggesting that Trump fire Sessions or Rosenstein or Mueller? Oh, I hope you’re right, and Trump does act rashly. “Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley said … it would be ‘suicide’ for President Donald Trump to continue talking about firing [special counsel Robert Mueller].” :)
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/10/trump-mueller-firing-chuck-grassley-512234

#150 Reximus on 04.10.18 at 5:51 pm

#144 Big Kahuna on 04.10.18 at 4:13 pm

The desperation from the criminals like Mueller and Rosenstein is palpable-even guys like Dershowitz (who hates Trump)

Dershowitz is at the WH as we speak, having din-dins with Trump

#151 Tony on 04.10.18 at 5:58 pm

Re: #110 Victor V on 04.10.18 at 9:48 am

Big talk right before the NAFTA negotiations in the middle of April to push up the Canadian dollar. What happens after that? A fifty cent dollar that’s what. Everyone has faith in Poloz he’ll never raise rates.

#152 Gravy Train on 04.11.18 at 9:21 am

#141 Smoking Man on 04.10.18 at 3:18 pm
“James it[’s] a total witch hunt that will find nothing. You[’]r[e] delusional if you think Muller will get Trump. Two[-]d[i]men[s]ional chess players like yourself have zero chance of actu[a]lly seeing the big picture at play.”

Mueller is about to checkmate Trump! :)

#153 VancouverRefugee on 04.11.18 at 2:49 pm

Maybe we will be able to afford to live in our city again someday.

Glad to see the “specuvestors” in Vancouver getting a dose of reality!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-s-short-term-rental-bylaws-take-effect-april-19-1.4614330