The howling…

Remember this kitchen?

It was featured here in mid-January when a rowhouse at 15 Rebecca in one of the demand, hipster-infested areas of Toronto went up for sale. The asking price was three-quarters of a million dollars for this piece of garbage sitting on 14 feet of questionable dirt.

Here’s what we said:

If the house sells, according to the Tweets and posts, it will ‘prove’ the local market has resiliency and duration, that a piffle like rising mortgage rates or a stress test cannot stop it. This place is an utter, complete, unqualified, horrific, likely diseased, dump. Makes you wonder if the people on either side of space a local real estate site called a “howling shithole”, know what’s but a few inches away.

And here is what the listing agent, Allister John Suinclair (Re/Max) had to say about a property prospective buyers should have been given hazmat suits to view

Builders Delight Perched In The Highly Desired Neighbourhood Of Trinity Bellwoods! Attention Renovators & Builders! 9 Foot Ceilings. This 2 Storey Home Just Needs Tlc, Renovations And Remodeling To Become Your Dream Home! Just Steps To Queen Street, Trinity Bellwoods Park, Ttc, Subway, Shops And So Much More. Prime Location! Don’t Miss This Opportunity! **** EXTRAS **** Property Being Sold As Is Where Is, Street Permit Parking Available, Roof Is In Good Condition. Upgraded Furnace – Recently Serviced With New Heat Exchanger And Motor. Hot WaterTank (Rental – 2016)

Here is what one poster to this pathetic blog said, wile others (from Vancouver, of course) said it looked like a decent place to them!

“The rowhouse is likely sold as you read this. buyer will put 100k (no permits needed…) into it and relist in 3-4 months at 999k. And they will get it. Easy money. This is priced correctly….”

Well, now we know what happened. The house sat on the market for two months, was relisted once and sold this week for …ta da… $675,000, or 10% below list. (It closes April 6th.) Obviously it’s a gut, nothing to save, big bucks to shore the walls so the neighbours don’t fall in, no parking, a complete rebuild and no matter the result you still can’t swing a decent-sized cat inside. So is that the right price?

Beats me, but it says this about the market: (a) there’s been a salient change over the past months as the DOM stat grows, (b) however greater fools are still out there and (c) scant listings in popular areas means POS such as this still find a buyer, even at 90% of asking.

Anyone who believes rising rates, the mortgage stress test, moronic politicians and economic uncertainty are not having an impact has their blinders on. Toronto sales tumbled 25% last month. Vancouver detached numbers are awful. Look at poor Victoria, where March sales have crashed 28.5%. Three-quarters of regional markets are stagnant or in decline. “The notion that the new stress test for uninsured mortgages would slow down Canada’s housing market is getting more and more currency,” RBC senior economist Robert Hogue wrote in a note to clients late last week. “After a sharp drop in January, home resale activity was weak again in February.”

It will take a full six months of B20 to know the impact. Meanwhile the US Fed will boost its rate for a fifth time next week, and our guys will follow later in the spring. The suicidal BC ‘spec tax’ will join the 20% go-home tax, the new luxury tax and the empty-house tax soon. And now the Bank for International Settlement is lumping our financial institutions in with those in China, as being the most at risk in the world. Guess why? Yup. House lust has led to extreme mortgage snofling.

Makes you wonder what bank handed over the money for this?

264 comments ↓

#1 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 03.12.18 at 4:20 pm

How can we find out how much T2’s most recent family vacation to India cost Canadian Middle Class Tax Payers. Including the Chef he flew over to create one dinner.

did you know that on page 223 or 226 of the 2018 Federal Budget Trudeau has given his government to right in the next financial crisis…to take any and all of the money we have in the bank to pay down gov’t debt. And never give it back.

Absolutely wrong. Read the ‘bail-in’ explanations on this blog. – Garth

#2 Financial Orchid on 03.12.18 at 4:23 pm

Yikes I remember this kitchen!

#3 DougsBoy on 03.12.18 at 4:26 pm

Location, Location, Location.

But even then. Really someone thinks they can turn this around and flip for profit ? be interesting to revisit after a year. Thanks for the follow up Garth Sir.

Your Blog has more ethics then all So called News Channels of Canada. Keep up the good work.

#4 Mark. on 03.12.18 at 4:27 pm

Aye, but she was a grand house in 2013.

#5 See on 03.12.18 at 4:31 pm

There is always a greater fool!!

#6 thebarold on 03.12.18 at 4:37 pm

Flippers can bankroll their own purchases or private lenders working with flippers. Amazing what they will do with some new drywall and flooring to remove the smell. The end result will sell because buyers can finance a flipped house, but cannot come up with the cash to buy and reno (at least not competitively with the professional flippers).

#7 For those about to flop... on 03.12.18 at 4:39 pm

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

This condo in Richmond sold 12 days ago.

It was one of the ones I located in a complex which has been struggling with flips that were picked up in 2015.

They paid 2.98 and after trying it on for 3.78 in March 2017 and testing the waters for six months brought the asking down to purchase price perhaps after unit I featured on here was first to bail and got roughly what they paid and had to eat the expenses.

Did these guys make the right decision by waiting?

Hopefully someone tells me the sales price and then we will know…

M43BC

2017-03-08 : $3,788,000
2017-09-01 : $2,980,000

103 5151 Brighouse Way Rich. Paid 2.98 asking 2.98 Confirmed by old bird.

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/5151-brighouse-way/a103

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDBKUFFHWg==

#8 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.12.18 at 4:40 pm

Charming. In a meth-addled sort of way.

#9 Smoking Man on 03.12.18 at 4:45 pm

And don’t forget BIS bank of Internatioal settlements just put Canada on the shit list. 4 out of 4 strikes.

It’s going to get real ugly.

#10 Flyboy on 03.12.18 at 4:45 pm

Gross!!!

#11 Caleb Landry on 03.12.18 at 4:46 pm

What’s wrong with foreign buying…???

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2231254/3309-w-19th-avenue-vancouver-bc

This is Vancouver, in a nutshell. What a F*&%*ing JOKE. On a busy street, rammed against all kinds of neighbours, a spec house built by some jackass who wants $14.9 M. Should only be worth $4m TOPS.

And, for fun, here’s the assessment…

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDBTTVc3Ng==

Went to an open house this weekend at this place…

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMExBSA==

They want $3.8 M for it. It was a total DUMP. They didn’t even clean the place before the open house, the half eaten pizza from the night before was left out on the kitchen table – clothes, garbage etc was everywhere. Bought in Jan 2016 for just over $3m.

Trying to flip it.

All asian realtors, everywhere, all the time.

This city is a mess.

#12 Howard on 03.12.18 at 4:50 pm

In Vancouver they’d say that house has character.

#13 For those about to flop... on 03.12.18 at 4:56 pm

Recent Sale Report/Realtor Assistance Needed.

O.k so I see that zolo has done some updates of some of my cases that had been removed and now I will try and find out as quickly as possible what they went for.

This house in Coquitlam sold 14days ago.

Originally listed in November 2016 ,when they chopped the price down in the summer of 2017 I thought it would have gone being in close proximity to a lake and all that but despite being on the market for well less than purchased for nobody took the bait.

They had it on and off the market a few times and eventually their persistence paid off.

They paid 1.27 and the last time I saw they were asking 1.28,leaving them to eat the expenses.

Someone tell me the sales price or I will go jump in the lake…

M43BC

These people spent 1.27 April 2016 ass1.15

653 Lakeshore Drive, Coquitlam

2016-11-01 : $1,350,000
2017-06-11 : $1,190,000
2017-08-09 : $1,370,000
2018-02-13 : $1,288,000
2017-02-23 : $1,299,000

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWExYQw==

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/653-lakeshore-drive

#14 Dzh on 03.12.18 at 4:57 pm

At a party yesterday, I quoted to some acquaintances the recent TREB numbers and my own findings (from Mongohouse) of ample GTA ‘pink snow’. The disbelief was immediate and harsh. Suckers still think the upcoming provincial election is about carbon or healthcare…

#15 Caleb Landry on 03.12.18 at 4:57 pm

This one was originally listed for $14m. Now down to $8.9m. Still $8.9m for a cube??? Like seriously? It’s not even waterfront…

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2244359/3691-point-grey-road-vancouver-bc

#16 Tater on 03.12.18 at 5:05 pm

Canadians would do well to read a bit about what happened to Iceland in the GFC.

#17 Dave on 03.12.18 at 5:06 pm

We have had countless warning from Central Banks, BIS, World Bank for years.
Are the BIG five banks going to make dramatic changes? Lending practises and international funds coming into Canada?

#18 Newcomer on 03.12.18 at 5:11 pm

#4 Caleb Landry on 03.12.18 at 4:46 pm
—-

To be fair, that’s only 60 year’s salary for a doctor. And it comes with Apple TV preinstalled.

#19 Sue on 03.12.18 at 5:12 pm

Is it too much to ask they wipe the door???, need rubber gloves and a mask just to view. And the stain on the wall how does that happen?

#20 young & foolish on 03.12.18 at 5:12 pm

Consider yesterday’s post Blog Dogs, it’s an EZ money (FED enabled) global economy, where all over the world debts are growing faster than local economies. What do “fundamentals” mean in this scenario? And who can really say what anything is really worth?

#21 Stan Brooks on 03.12.18 at 5:13 pm

Charming.

Great character and features.
An absolute beauty.

#22 JettaFlair on 03.12.18 at 5:20 pm

@#4

As a side note: New Coast appears to have changed branding into “LeHomes” now. Not sure if this has anything to do with the long time case against New Coast from one of their realtors for monies unpaid. It would be interesting to see what this really stems from. The adverts for Vancouver RE Companies are elaborate and silly at the same time. It almost feels like they are starting to cannibalize one another.

#23 For those about to flop... on 03.12.18 at 5:21 pm

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

This house in White Rock sold 29 days ago.

This is another long term dieter that has finally shed some weight.

Tried to load up at the buffet for 1.45 back in late 2016.

Dr. Market said boy you gotta cut down on the sugar and sent them to see the Specialist at b.c assessment.

They didn’t see what they liked and cut their assessment back from 1.24 to 1.17

14 months and two liposuctions later they are ready for their final weigh in.

Are they lean?

Or just mean…

M43BC

13697 Malabar Avenue, Surrey paid 1.32 August 2016 ass1.17 asking 1.18

2016-12-15 : $1,459,900
2017-07-08 : $1,350,000
2018-01-02 : $1,188,000

https://www.zolo.ca/white-rock-real-estate/13697-malabar-avenue

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#24 Sebastien on 03.12.18 at 5:28 pm

I’m impressed that it got sold as is and at that price. The market is indeed resilient.

#25 El Joko on 03.12.18 at 5:29 pm

“Moronic politicians”.

I don’t get it. You decry the state of the market. You lament the amount of money being thrown at properties that are wildly overvalued. Yet when politicians act – and in the two jurisdictions that matter, they’re Liberal and NDP – you call them morons.

Why?

You’ll see. – Garth

#26 Damifino on 03.12.18 at 5:33 pm

That property has the same look and feel as down-town Granville Street. I won’t even go there in the daytime any more.

#27 Stone on 03.12.18 at 5:34 pm

And now the Bank for International Settlement is lumping our financial institutions in with those in China, as being the most at risk in the world. Guess why? Yup. House lust has led to extreme mortgage snofling.

———

Well…we’re in good company. NOT!!! We went from strongest banking system in the world to the equivalent of a spec play. Wow! Where’s Australia in all this? Sweden? New Zealand? Thought they were just as bad or worse. Not even an honourable mention?

Is it time to run for the exits?

#28 Graeme on 03.12.18 at 5:40 pm

I’m almost on the same page in terms of all the foolish taxes. The only exception is “go-home tax”. I say hit foreign buyers with a hammer until they leave. I agree interest rates are the biggest reason but prices are set at the margin and everywhere I look at the margins, it looks like foreign investors to me. Besides wacking non-voters is a freebie for politicians. If my townhouse declines to 2013 prices as a result I promise not to cry.

You might if your income falls to 2013 levels. – Garth

#29 dakkie on 03.12.18 at 5:42 pm

DELETED

#30 Communist canada on 03.12.18 at 5:42 pm

Can we please give Mark a quota on mentioning 2013

#31 El Joko on 03.12.18 at 5:49 pm

Garth – I’ll see what? That there are consequences to a market going down? We already know this.

The market will go down anyway, sooner or later. Politicians acting to burst a bubble pre-emptively are going to do damage, yes, but it’s less damage than the bubble bursting on its own when it gets even bigger.

In my honest, humble, and polite opinion, you have two bugbears that you refuse to let go of:

1. Politicians, especially Liberal/NDP, recognizing a market failure and acting to correct it before it corrects itself.
2. You continually harp on the futility of slamming foreign speculators, even as the evidence grows that they are a larger and larger part of the market. It’s gone from 1%, to 5%, to 10%, and now speculated to be 15% of Vancouver area home sales are going directly to foreigners. You and I both know that according to supply and demand, if you cut off 15% of demand, you cut prices.

There is zero evidence 15% of total Van sales are to foreigners. In any case, trying to ‘solve’ high real estate prices with a symphony of taxes is idiotic and will likely result in general economic decline which was entirely unnecessary. The market was rolling over on its own. – Garth

#32 The Limited Sage on 03.12.18 at 5:51 pm

https://www.bnn.ca/one-in-five-canadians-would-give-up-right-to-vote-for-debt-relief-poll-1.1024447

“The survey by Ipsos conducted for insolvency firm MNP Ltd found that 85 per cent of Canadians with debt say they are willing to make personal sacrifices to deal with their debt, with 21 per cent saying they would give up their right to vote for the next eight years to avoid ever having to make another debt payment”

#33 Mean Gene on 03.12.18 at 5:53 pm

Oh man, my pigsty nightmares are going to return ;-)

#34 For those about to flop... on 03.12.18 at 5:55 pm

Recent Sale Report/ Realtor Assistance Needed.

This property in West Vancouver sold 18 days ago ,mainly for land value.

They tried to show you the possibilities on the Zolo listing, but maybe someone turned up expecting a new house instead of a 90 year old beater.

The people before these guys tried to get 1.78 ,but finally offloaded it to the current guys for 1.28 ,and then these guys played the game as well and will probably be happy to get away with a Pink Draw.

Doubtful it was a red letter day…

M43BC

6438 Marine Drive, West Vancouver paid 1.28 January 2017 ass 1.26m asking 1.38

2017-08-22 : $1,480,000
2017-09-27 : $1,380,000
2017-11-16 : $1,388,000

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/6438-marine-drive

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOFpXVQ==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#35 cultural elitist on 03.12.18 at 5:58 pm

@Stan Brooks – #224 previous thread:
:: Are you saying wikipedia is a fraud?

Not exactly, but do be careful what you read. Usually I agree with your thoughtful comments, but you’re clearly mis-characterizing an unreliable service.

Wikipedia is only as accurate as the average informed hobbyist – the person who posts. Nothing in the terms of service indicates that they expect their content to be accurate beyond that. If you want expertise, ask the experts, not anonymous wiki posters.

See here:
https://wikimediafoundation.org/wiki/Terms_of_Use/en

#36 Price is Right w Bob Barker! on 03.12.18 at 5:58 pm

Toronto is the feminist and hipster HQ of Canada. It’s common for a moister to borrow over half a million to pay for a townhouse which looks like it was from the movie Hostel.

#37 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.12.18 at 6:00 pm

$675k for that shithole and you think the market is gonna crash ? Hahhaha…..think again, not gonna happen….No crash, no big slow melt. Just a minor adjustment / levelling off in prices then sideways for a decade.

#38 Linda on 03.12.18 at 6:05 pm

Whoever bought that property paid way too much. I have to presume they will be able to turn this testimonial for keeping tetanus shots up to date into something someone else will be willing to buy for a healthy profit in short order. Who knows? Maybe whoever bought this intends to live there themselves once the great sanitization has taken place.

Don’t know if you’d be able to keep following this, but admit to curiosity as to what this property will look like in a few months time as well as what the asking price might be if it is being flipped.

#39 El Joko on 03.12.18 at 6:08 pm

Garth,

Once again, I point out that a bubble being forcibly popped early by politicians is going to do less economic harm than one allowed to grow and blow up on its own.

Furthermore, as regards 15% of home sales being to foreign speculators…

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/number-of-foreign-homebuyers-up-slightly-in-metro-vancouver

13.2% of home sales from June 10 to August 1 of 2016, according to the BC Finance Ministry. That’s long before the “rush” to buy homes before the foreign buyers tax. And there is considerable speculation here that it did hit 15% (and higher) before the tax was implemented.

I’m not here to shame or berate you, I’m here to ask you to reconsider some of your own personal bugbears.

Even IF the number is just 10%, if you eliminate foreign speculators, you’re reducing demand significantly. Yet you’ve consistently gone on to say that punishing foreign buyers won’t affect the market. We know that’s not true. You know that’s not true.

Yes, I agree that abnormally low interest rates are the primary case of the boom, but discounting foreign buyers as a force – even at 10% – is incorrect.

#40 Dzh on 03.12.18 at 6:09 pm

I’d just like to take this opportunity to blame that house on Boomers and cite the incandescent genius Thomas Piketty as my all-purpose argument. I’d also like to namedrop Amartya Sen so that it’s clear my views are more sophisticated than just puerile envy and economic Lysenkoism.

#41 Chico on 03.12.18 at 6:15 pm

#15 Caleb Landry on 03.12.18 at 4:57 pm

This one was originally listed for $14m. Now down to $8.9m. Still $8.9m for a cube??? Like seriously? It’s not even waterfront…

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2244359/3691-point-grey-road-vancouver-bc

————————————————-

I clicked on the house from your first post and the asking price was 14.9 million. The funny thing…there was a mortgage calculator button right beside it! For fun I pushed it…only $57,000/month for a mortgage on the place!

#42 n1tro on 03.12.18 at 6:17 pm

#195 Eks dee Siple on 03.12.18 at 11:46 am
Congrats to IHTCD9 for dumbest post of the day so far (silverback comment), and that was a difficult achievement with Howard spouting his ignorant strawman logic all over the blog today. Just waiting for nitro to chime in with his frequent naïveté. The so-called PC Party of Ontario just elected a drug-dealer to lead them. ’nuff said. LOL. OMG. SMH.
_——————-_
Someone sounds like they didn’t get enough hugs growing up. We get your stance, all government is bad. I agree to a certain extent. The rest of us has to pick between the lesser of two evils.

#43 Gulf Breeze on 03.12.18 at 6:18 pm

Dana Nuccitelli writes freelance for the Guardian but is employed by company called Tetratech. Tetratech is funded by oil companies. This means Nucitelli is not only guilty of confirmation bias. He is paid for it.

To the moron who posted yesterday about confirmation bias and yadayadayada about mini ice age potential in near future. You obviously didn’t do much research on Dana Nuccitelli.

#44 TurnerNation on 03.12.18 at 6:18 pm

Toronto low end pricing is so out of whack.
Tiny 400-500sq foot kando units are verging to $1000/sq foot, I’ve seen it, and listed here (nasaly voiced realty blog):

http://torontorealtyblog.com/archives/20490

This means: a paltry 500 feet clocks in at 1/2 mill, wet.
Plus all the ‘land transfer’ faxes (Queen Liz thanks you – twice).

OR…for four of those shoe boxes + a wall of weed smoke from near-bys, get a real mansion:

2m seems nothing for this, right?

https://torontolife.com/real-estate/houses/toronto-house-sold-7-triller-avenue/

^look at that!

#45 Gulf Breeze on 03.12.18 at 6:20 pm

Oh and Garth, my best wishes for you and your store! Nice you can close for the off season.

Open Easter Weekend. Bring your bunny. – Garth

#46 45north on 03.12.18 at 6:22 pm

Dzh: At a party yesterday, I quoted to some acquaintances the recent TREB numbers and my own findings (from Mongohouse) of ample GTA ‘pink snow’. The disbelief was immediate and harsh. Suckers still think the upcoming provincial election is about carbon or healthcare…

it’s going to be about real estate – year-over-year sales are down 25% in January and February. March, April and May will be down again. May sales will be down 50%. Disbelief will turn to anger and it’ll be immediate and harsh.

Doug Ford needs to stop talking about prosperity and start talking about survival.

#47 Mike T on 03.12.18 at 6:24 pm

Hello Folks!
Have you ever heard the term Shadow Government?
Probably. It doesn’t really matter if you ‘believe’ in a shadow government, it exists. And it is collapsing.
From the inside out. I just want to tip people off on what’s happening. You don’t have to believe me, you will see for yourself.
I hope all of you have a great day and try and expand your consciousness in some way.

#48 chopstix on 03.12.18 at 6:29 pm

hey who the heck snuck in and took pics of my place? and this was AFTER renos!

#49 MF on 03.12.18 at 6:32 pm

#17 Dave on 03.12.18 at 5:06 pm
“We have had countless warning from Central Banks, BIS, World Bank for years.
Are the BIG five banks going to make dramatic changes? Lending practises and international funds coming into Canada?”

-No there is not. Think about it. We have been hearing about “international organizations” warning us about debt and house prices for years. And prices (and rents) have basically just increased, except for the last year out of 15.

I actually believe the banks are just paying lip service to this idea of tighter lending standards and the current risks of borrowing/leverage in RE.

I also think we should also seriously start to look at the possibility that the game has actually changed. There are headwinds like “potentially” rising rates, debt levels that are being balanced with tailwinds like rising population, booming economy, and high demand from domestic and international investors alike. Maybe this explains the slight decline in prices, or why prices are so sticky?

This is the GTA of course. I don’t care about any other market (just being honest).

MF

#50 JSS on 03.12.18 at 6:37 pm

How does a house reach such a state of disrepair?

#51 LS on 03.12.18 at 6:37 pm

> The market was rolling over on its own. – Garth

Actually there was zero evidence the market was rolling over on its own. The market is starting to roll over now after being beaten by multiple level of governments with policy changes. Before that it was going insane.

#52 MF on 03.12.18 at 6:38 pm

#38 Linda on 03.12.18 at 6:05 pm

We already know the story.

The buyer (foreign or domestic doesn’t matter) will tear it down, then build an eyesore of a McMansion.

Total cost for materials, building the McMansion ~400k. Total cost for land + materials + building = about 1M.

They will then list the new house for 1.7 M. It will sell for 1.6M. People on this blog will use this as an example of “house prices falling”. They are wrong. Total profit will be about 500k. Rinse repeat.

MF

#53 Samon Nights on 03.12.18 at 6:39 pm

Speaking of moronic politicians, is Ontario great again?

More likely, Ontario (C)onservatives just doused themselves once again for another sequel of spontaneous self-combustion. Hudak v2.0 And I thought BC politics were disfunctional. You can’t make this stuff up.

Wynne, as much as I despise her condescending incompetence, must be in a state of drunken ecstasy right now.

Probably going to hold my nose and vote NDP in June, if nothing more than to bitch-slap and punish the other two parties into reality.

#54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.12.18 at 6:39 pm

DELETED

#55 HoweStreet.com on 03.12.18 at 6:46 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
If You Wish for a Major House Price Drop, You Want a Recession.
Governments relying on home transfer taxes are about to be disappointed.

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/03/12/if-you-wish-for-a-major-house-price-drop-you-want-a-recession/

#56 renter in Surrey on 03.12.18 at 6:47 pm

# 31

There is zero evidence 15% of total Van sales are to foreigners. In any case, trying to ‘solve’ high real estate prices with a symphony of taxes is idiotic and will likely result in general economic decline which was entirely unnecessary. The market was rolling over on its own. – Garth

What about this?

In its report released last week, Transparency International revealed that the Canadian government currently has no knowledge of what entities or individuals actually own nearly half of the 100 priciest residential properties in Vancouver.

http://vancouversun.com/storyline/nearly-half-of-vancouver-luxury-homes-have-hidden-ownership-report

Fifty properties in a city of 90,000? Who cares? Focus on what matters. – Garth

#57 sue on 03.12.18 at 6:53 pm

#47 Mike T Oh yes, I’m very familiar with Shadow Government. When you realize it’s there, everything in the world makes sense. My fave line on CNN is “…they have 6 ways from Sunday to get back at you..” referring to the CIA getting back at Trump. #2 “…the govt is going to kill this guy…” Again referring to Trump on Jake Tapper. I usually don’t talk about this stuff because it’s considered conspiracy. Hope it’s collapsing as you say. :)

#58 Timberr on 03.12.18 at 6:54 pm

The winds have definitely changed…even the radio commercials on 680 News for lending are touting a different tune…

Today on the way home during rush hour, Rapport Credit Union was taking jabs over the airwaves at the big banks and stress testing telling people who failed the test and/or getting less money that they were “banked” and to come to Rapport….

Sigh.

#59 Bill on 03.12.18 at 6:54 pm

#39

HOWEVER, it was cheap interest rates that “allowed” locals to match any foreign money $ for $ and THAT is why they will now pay the price.

#60 WUL on 03.12.18 at 6:56 pm

Garth:

Is Cowtown leader of the pack for March so far?

All housing types March ’18/March ’17 – sales down 38.52%.

SFD March ’18/March ’17 – sales down 37.93%

We pine for the 2013 peak prices here.

#61 VanMan on 03.12.18 at 6:58 pm

Demand areas (so most of the lower mainland) will not see prices fall by any notable margin. Sales may plunder, listings may disappear, but prices will remain strong as there always seems to be a buyer whether local or foreign. Unless the sky has completely fallen, people will (or should) just hold on as it won’t last long here. There may be a select few who are forced to sell (job, family, health, etc) but they are not the majority and these will not move nor change the market.

We’ve been hearing for years about the indebtedness of Canadians, however, it’s business as usual in these parts. If you don’t believe me come for a visit to Vancouver…

#62 M on 03.12.18 at 7:00 pm

When people over 50 (6-7 generation Canadians) BELIEVE that debt doesn’t matter….all is lost my friend.

Immigrants have a bigger fetish with housing and expensive cars – myself a first gen immigrant I have studied that very carefully in my east european community. So these people don’t count since most of them chose to lose the quality that makes eastern europe resilient-> the historical perspective.

It’s a general observation that what’s left of the anglo saxon culture and the protestant thrift, no matter how “hypocritical” a “progressive” might stamp that, are still a bit more careful to the income-debt relation.

…and even they went overboard.

Things will indeed correct and people (in general) will become more cerebral. But only after a protracted depression and a bankrupt government.

Depressions and wars do have their role for when plebes get lost… teach the value of work, money and the love for one another. If it cant be obtained or kept in “good times”…the ferocious “bad times” do bring the society back on track. If it doesn’t…that society disappears.
Brutal reality proven dearly by history.

#63 gfd on 03.12.18 at 7:08 pm

China, Canada and Hong Kong are among the economies most at risk of a banking crisis, according to early-warning indicators compiled by the Bank for International Settlements.
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/china-banking-crisis-warning-signal-still-flashing-bis-says-1#comments-area

#64 CL on 03.12.18 at 7:12 pm

#25 El Joko on 03.12.18 at 5:29 pm
“Moronic politicians”.

I don’t get it. You decry the state of the market. You lament the amount of money being thrown at properties that are wildly overvalued. Yet when politicians act – and in the two jurisdictions that matter, they’re Liberal and NDP – you call them morons.

Why?
===========================

You’ve obviously never heard the statement “Hi, I’m from government and I’m here to help!!”

#65 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.12.18 at 7:19 pm

#31 El Joko on 03.12.18 at 5:49 pm
Garth – I’ll see what? That there are consequences to a market going down? We already know this.

The market will go down anyway, sooner or later. Politicians acting to burst a bubble pre-emptively are going to do damage, yes, but it’s less damage than the bubble bursting on its own when it gets even bigger.
=================================
Exactly!

Someone is being responsible here.

We know there is no Free market anyway.
But the wealthy like to tell us there is. It is more that you are free to trade within the slanted rules that favor the club of wealthy.
The price to enter is of course, Being wealthy.

#66 Zapstrap on 03.12.18 at 7:23 pm

Somehow it just had to be VanCity that financed that. Just had to be.

#67 Penny Henny on 03.12.18 at 7:26 pm

there was talk earlier about minimum wage increases and the increasing price of goods.
Well here is my example.
1- 60 OZ pitcher
1- 16 OZ draft
2- mid grade wines

the new price!!!!

$32.70

Welcome to Welland.
I’ll see you at Handlebar Hanks

#68 Mark on 03.12.18 at 7:34 pm

“o take any and all of the money we have in the bank “

The ‘mistake’ here is to think that people actually have “money in the bank”. Banks do not ‘store’ the money of people, they are merely borrowers of money, and investors of said borrowed money. A ‘depositor’ to a Canadian bank is merely an unsecured creditor.

Having said that, bail-ins are not a possibility in Canada at the big-5 because the banks will eat their adjustable rate borrowers alive first, forcing the Bank of Canada to engage in systemic policy.

#69 M on 03.12.18 at 7:35 pm

#43 Gulf Breeze

..listen pal… thet “moron” might be indeed right. They tried one off on you in the 90s…when you’re supposed to die cooked if you don’t replace the freon :)
An exclusively “western” experiment. The rest of the world stayed out of it laughing at you. Then copying the results to qualify for foreign loans.

Now.. think a bit:
Out of the entire atmosphere only 6% are “greenhouse gasses”.
From that little 6% slice, 92% are water vapours. Just about 4% is CO2. The rest of 4% are trace gasses amongst which methane (that inspired the fart tax in NZ and Aussie) is REALLY trace.

So… 4% 0f 6% is CO2. i.e. 0.0024% of the entire atmosphere.

If you check the preferential Plank spectrum for CO2, H2O, etc and play with the Boltzman and Wien Laws you’ll get a composite absorption graph. (Guam)

https://www.mathstat.dal.ca/~folkins/introas.chap4.html

H2O obliterates everything that CO2 could do. More about how things work:
http://topex.ucsd.edu/rs/Lec06.pdf

…It’s beyond me how many people go to school but NERVR use the knowledge. They prefer CNN, CBC and the entire bunch of manufaturers of emotional consensus.

Use your own brain (if you have the knowledge) and do the thinking.

Since the Sun is what drives the climate, yes it’s expected to have alread entered the cooling cycle of climate. Slowly at first (just like the interest rates increases) but obviously in the next 5 years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle
https://principia-scientific.org/drop-sunspot-activity-warning-global-cooling/

…meanwhile…because we didn’t warm the way they say…they invented – for gringo consumption- The Global Warming Hiatus
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_hiatus

…so.. #43 Breeze ..try to look beyond where someone is employed. I advise to improve your education in order to understand the goods that CNN delivers to you then use your own mind and observations. If you are over 50…you already saw saw a cycle.

Anybody in the responsible age range remember this ?

https://i1.wp.com/gregladen.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Facebook_meme_Global_Cooling_11.gif

Not everything CBC/CNN/Guardian tells you is right :)

As Mark Twain said:
“If You Don’t Read the Newspaper You Are Uninformed, If You Do Read the Newspaper You Are Misinformed”

…sorry for the length Garth

#70 I’m stupid on 03.12.18 at 7:37 pm

I’d be hard pressed to convince a squatter to live in that hell hole, let alone convince someone to pay 675k. Good luck with that.

#71 jim on 03.12.18 at 7:39 pm

As an aside, I was on the phone a couple of days back with a few people involved in the Toronto waterfront redevelopment.

Mixed audience of Americans and Canadians. The talk turned to RE and the Canadian side warned that there is a big downturn coming. They said that sales are crashing and there appears to be a major pullback in the market. The Americans were not shocked and said that they figured Canada was due for a downturn.

Completely unprompted, and interesting because this is not a poorly connected group.

#72 Yorkville Renter on 03.12.18 at 7:39 pm

I heard this place was being featured as a “clear winning strategy” at Pitbull’s Real Estate and Bitcoin Wealth Expo.

#73 Whatcha Minnie on 03.12.18 at 7:39 pm

My wife is American and introduced me to grilled cheese sandwiches. Completely different to cheese toasties. Especially ones made in the old Breville. She butters one side of each slice of bread and puts one butter side down in the frying pan. On goes American cheese and a pan lid on top to melt the cheese. The next slice of buttered bread goes on top and the whole thing is flipped over to cook the other slice of the bread. Once it’s all caramelised it’s all done! Microwave a can of cream of tomato soup for dipping.

#74 Smartalox on 03.12.18 at 7:54 pm

Laugh if you must, but that $675k squat-hole just re-set the comparables for the entire neighbourhood.

And I doubt that it re-set prices upward.

Nobody looks at pictures when picking comps, it’s all just numbers on a printout. You let a couple of lowballs in, and pretty soon everyone is bidding 20% or more below assessed.

#75 Canadian Moose on 03.12.18 at 7:54 pm

That place is a shithole. Even knowing how it looked before possible renos makes my stomach queasy. This is a salvage operation at best and unless it’s a long term hold they are gonna lose money regardless.

The bottom hasn’t hit the floor yet. I am curios about the future of this piece of crap relative to the market conditions in Toronto over the next year or two. Keep an eye on this one Garth. This one could be a lesson in real estate for the ages in 2018.

Thoughts from the Deck in the Hinterland. Oh dear I need a refill of my glass of wine. Cheers!

#76 isuckless on 03.12.18 at 7:56 pm

#43 What do you sacrifice on the altar of your god Al Gore?

#77 Larry on 03.12.18 at 7:56 pm

#37 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.12.18 at 6:00 pm
$675k for that shithole and you think the market is gonna crash ? Hahhaha…..think again, not gonna happen….No crash, no big slow melt. Just a minor adjustment / levelling off in prices then sideways for a decade.

“…sideways for a decade.” I would consider that a train wreck. Much worse than a crash.

#78 Boombust on 03.12.18 at 7:58 pm

#61 Vanman

Such a shill. Nice try, Bub.

#79 Newcomer on 03.12.18 at 8:03 pm

#52 MF on 03.12.18 at 6:38 pm
#38 Linda on 03.12.18 at 6:05 pm

We already know the story.

The buyer (foreign or domestic doesn’t matter) will tear it down, then build an eyesore of a McMansion.
——-
It is a row house, 14 feet wide. You missed this crucial piece of information because you were inattentive. What else are you missing due to inattention?

#80 april on 03.12.18 at 8:03 pm

#61 – Sure, and you know it all!

#81 Mike in Toronto on 03.12.18 at 8:06 pm

Have you guys never lifted a hammer or put down some paint? The place looks like a breeze to fix. Hardest thing to fix is the crappy upstairs bathroom, it’s in the wrong place. The rowhouse was likely built before indoor toilets.

The water heater makes me wonder if it’s a crawlspace. I don’t see a down staircase. That would be an issue.

The back yard is even southern facing, which is amazing. Although… the back yard faces a large dirt parking lot….

The sun and privacy will disappear very fast when they build condos with balconies overlooking your bedroom window.

#82 Ace Goodheart on 03.12.18 at 8:07 pm

I can’t believe someone bought that. I was seriously just kidding when I wrote I thought it was fixable. More than 1/2 a million dollars for that?

People in Toronto are soooooo dumb.

#83 Paul on 03.12.18 at 8:07 pm

70 I’m stupid on 03.12.18 at 7:37 pm
I’d be hard pressed to convince a squatter to live in that hell hole, let alone convince someone to pay 675k. Good luck with that.
————————————————————————————————
That’s why sellers need an agent, they pull rabbits out of a hat! Lol

#84 acdel on 03.12.18 at 8:08 pm

675k lol!

Off topic but just wow!

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/christie-blatchford-the-disgraceful-case-against-a-man-who-dared-carry-a-canadian-flag-in-caledonia#comments-area

#85 Bashful Renter on 03.12.18 at 8:10 pm

Garth has some competition on the creative writing front:

http://www.vancourier.com/opinion/the-most-over-the-top-description-of-vancouver-real-estate-development-we-ve-ever-read-1.23196996

#86 Arto on 03.12.18 at 8:16 pm

#39 El Joko

You are wasting your breath. “Real men” never admit they were wrong even when all evidence points to the fact.

#87 Yorkville Renter on 03.12.18 at 8:18 pm

#52 – MF – you can’t build a McMansion with 14 ft of width that is attached on both sides… the person who bought this likely figured it’s slightly more than a condo with fewer neighbors (still an overpriced shithole).

#88 Trumpocalypse2018 on 03.12.18 at 8:19 pm

3 days to the Ides of March !!!

45north said it best:

“Doug Ford needs to stop talking about prosperity and start talking about survival.”

I have been prepping all weekend. Have you?

Watch out now for what may break out any hour between UK and Russia.

PREPARE.

#89 Cottingham a bargain on 03.12.18 at 8:19 pm

675k for the shithole. A complete new build for a small builder who is actively involved and wants to do a clean job with above average materials will get it all in then at 1075k.

Anyone who thinks that a new build in that location will not sell for well over that price needs to give his head a a shake !

#90 Cottingham a bargain on 03.12.18 at 8:21 pm

Shit let me recant my last post . No go on new build because it’s a row house .

I missed that . Detached would have been different story

#91 Ok on 03.12.18 at 8:25 pm

No bank will finance that property because it isn’t marketable. Most likely, an alternative lender. So, flipper needs to drop heavy cash on the interest and renovations to make this reasonable. Return on investment for sure will be negative. Good luck.

#92 Smartalox on 03.12.18 at 8:27 pm

by the way, in Vancouver, they call a place like the one pictured ‘land assembly’.

Have a colleague who owns in a townhouse complex in Richmond. The complex built about 45 years ago (as old as he is) needs major renovations, and probably a high five- to six-figure special assessment. The complex is ‘listed’ now, so nobody can sell – at least not for what they feel their place is worth.

A newly-minted Real Estate Salesthingy arrives, says their only hope is to sell the whole complex, lock, stock and barrel for re-development.

The catch: everyone has to agree to sell.

So people think it over, the Realtress sweetens the deal, introduces a ‘developer’ (previously a drywall contractor) who talks up BIG PLANS for the place.

Of course not everyone wants to sell. At least some want to hold out for more money. Where are they all going to live? Cue the suspicion, the machinations, the alliances made and broken, the marital strife.

Of course there was no consensus. Of course there was no real deal. Of course there was no ‘developer’ – at least not a competent one. There were no Unicorns.

All this poured out over dinner at the company Christmas party last December, as I kept his wine glass topped up. Oooh.

My colleague managed to keep his family together, and in the end the Strata voted to kick the can down the road, and defer most of the needed repairs for another few years.

The kicker: some that had decided to sell, and then tried to do so, were warned by the Realtress that started it all, that if they sold, they still owed her a commission, thanks to agreements that were signed, ahead of the failed development bid.

That’s the state of the REAL real estate market in Vancouver, not the SPEC house market. $14M down to $8.9M? Who cares? It’s an outlier. One house in hundreds. $3M for a squat-hole on the fringe of Shaughnessy? Pure vapour.

The markets that real people live in are already steeped in fear and greed. Maxed out, with nowhere to turn, and no lifeboats – just rising water.

These are the homes where the crash will hit the hardest. That’s your ‘ground zero’ not the higher end of the market.

#93 tccontrarian on 03.12.18 at 8:27 pm

#76 Ace Goodheart on 03.12.18 at 8:07 pm

” I can’t believe someone bought that. I was seriously just kidding when I wrote I thought it was fixable. More than 1/2 a million dollars for that?

People in Toronto are soooooo dumb”
==========================================

As Einstein is supposed to have said (paraphrasing): “The Universe and human stupidity are infinite, and I’m not sure about the former”.

TCC

#94 NoName on 03.12.18 at 8:28 pm

#82 Ace Goodheart on 03.12.18 at 8:07 pm
I can’t believe someone bought that. I was seriously just kidding when I wrote I thought it was fixable. More than 1/2 a million dollars for that?
People in Toronto are soooooo dumb.

wait until you meet those from Milton and Oakville…

#95 Big Kahuna on 03.12.18 at 8:33 pm

#53Samon-all the “experts” said the same thing about Trump-actually the best thing Ford has going for him is Trump’s incredible success as POTUS-many Canadians wish we had a leader working for Canada like that.

#96 renter in Surrey on 03.12.18 at 8:34 pm

# 56

Fifty properties in a city of 90,000? Who cares? Focus on what matters. – Garth

Yes, but would it be logical to extrapolate this to RE in lower price range?

#97 Newcomer on 03.12.18 at 8:43 pm

#85 Bashful Renter on 03.12.18 at 8:10 pm
——-

That is truly beautiful.

#98 Northern Bolthole on 03.12.18 at 8:44 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-12/the-rich-aren-t-happy-new-zealand-is-banning-foreign-boltholes

Coming soon to Canada!

#99 Smoking Man on 03.12.18 at 8:44 pm

Ha T2 losing his shit on an MP
https://www.hilltimes.com/2018/03/12/upcoming-gun-legislation-scaring-hell-liberal-caucus-pm-trudeaus-vitriolic-response-grit-mp-harveys-concerns-put/137000

The liberals are afraid of him now.

How can anyone be frightend by a dude that sits with his knees touching.

Party of wimps.

#100 SW on 03.12.18 at 8:46 pm

#19 Sue on 03.12.18 at 5:12 pm
“Is it too much to ask they wipe the door???, need rubber gloves and a mask just to view. And the stain on the wall how does that happen?”

Mold, probably. Water infiltrating into the party walls, possibly (a roof in “good condition” is dubious). Perhaps smoking tenants who couldn’t afford to heat the place adequately, possibly because it has no insulation.

I’d turn it into a parking lot. You could park two cars, one behind the other.

#101 I believe everything on television on 03.12.18 at 8:47 pm

So is that the right price?


Yes. But the project may require vision, skills, organization, money, confidence, knowledge, contacts etc.
the mandatory ‘sledgehammer scene’ in every HGTV show is not how pros do it

#102 Where's The Money Guido? on 03.12.18 at 8:52 pm

Re: #69 M on 03.12.18 at 7:35 pm
#43 Gulf Breeze

Maurice Strong, Climate Crook
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2015/12/discovering-maurice-strong/

Jesse Ventura Global Warming FRAUD Maurice Strong Carbon Dioxide Tax Cap and Trade System NWO:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMkqozFqT0g

The consummate sleazebag, thief and all-round corruptocrat who launched and shaped the UN effort to rid the world of CO2 has died, appropriately enough as his heirs gather in Paris to rob the world blind. Good riddance

maurice strongEditor’s note: Five years ago, Quadrant Online published this profile of Maurice Strong (left), the man who, more than any other, redefined a trace gas as the meal ticket for tens of thousands of climate functionaries — the same people whose light-fingered heirs are today gathered in Paris. To mark his passing, we once again present John Izzard’s profile of the man who did very nicely by costing everyone else dearly.

#103 DON on 03.12.18 at 8:53 pm

Straight from the Financial Post. It seems the message to the general public are changing. What do the experts with all the data see coming. I do not remember seeing such messages in the good times.

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/if-you-think-low-rates-and-high-debt-levels-can-last-forever-think-again

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/nows-the-time-to-teach-young-investors-about-risk-before-the-market-does-it-for-you

#104 arfmoocat on 03.12.18 at 8:53 pm

+22C today in Van

exotic sports cars, Harley’s, shorts and t-shirts every where

#105 Mattl on 03.12.18 at 8:56 pm

74 – thats not how comps were. Comp is short
for comparable and a teardown does not set the price for say a new build, or a full reno. That price will be the comp for tear down dumps. A realtor would be able to tell you when and for what the last tear down sold for.

Once this lot is rebuilt it will become a comp for new build. Tear downs won’t all of a sudden sell for new build prices when this place turns over again.

Thats how comps actually work. They aren’t just numbers on a spreadsheet lol

#106 Peter German on 03.12.18 at 8:56 pm

Hey Marc – why such a worried look? Nothing to hide, right?

https://www.peacearchnews.com/news/lower-mainaland-condo-developer-under-rcmp-investigation/

According to the Bowra Group, the 91 condo units were sold 149 times, with 44 sold more than once, and one unit sold four times”

#107 For those about to flop... on 03.12.18 at 8:59 pm

I can only present what sells, but having just read Smartalox’s post I went back and looked at the possible Pink Snow cases that I presented tonight.

Still hoping someone with access to the Mls tells me what they sold for.

A house in Surrey that they paid 1.32 for.

A house in Coquitlam that they paid 1.27 for.

A house in West Vancouver that they paid 1.28 for.

A condo in Richmond that they paid 2.98 for.

Nothing wrong with this picture?

Carry on…

M43BC

#108 DON on 03.12.18 at 9:01 pm

Okay that town house was either used as a barn (livestock) or lived in by a hoarder.

The [email protected] properties has started the decline…ripple is coming back from unfreaken believable land. Did the proud owner(s).

#109 RCMP - BC Property Under Scope on 03.12.18 at 9:03 pm

Major busts in the background happening right now in British Columbia.

The dirty money in BC real estate is being cleaned up.

So, what is the problem? Almost the entire industry was based on it and will struggle moving forward now.

Common folk do not know this yet, but they will figure it out in a year or two when head scratching where the equity went.

#110 WomanWhoDoesn'tGetIt on 03.12.18 at 9:08 pm

I finally stopped believing the nice lady at the bank (who hubby introduced me too years ago) and started learning about investing on my own. Thanks Garth. Got a balanced, diversified portfolio now. The better half has not been involved in this process of extraditing ourselves from the so-called ‘financial advisor” at TD Waterhouse. He never paid attention to our investments, did whatever she advised, but now that I have put us on on track and ditched the TD lady, he is suddenly fascinated by cryptocurrency. Some buddies of his at work are into to it bigtime. We got in a big fight not too long ago, where he criticized me for not wanting to use my “analytical mind” (his words) to help him (us) invest for our future. I give up.

#111 WomanWhoDoesn'tGetIt on 03.12.18 at 9:09 pm

ooops…excuse the typos.

#112 DON on 03.12.18 at 9:10 pm

#51 LS on 03.12.18 at 6:37 pm

> The market was rolling over on its own. – Garth

Actually there was zero evidence the market was rolling over on its own. The market is starting to roll over now after being beaten by multiple level of governments with policy changes. Before that it was going insane.
**********************

Depends on how long you have been watching. The market became un-affordable (to most) and peaked. Interest rates (market factor) started to increase last year. It can also be said that the government goosed the market with 40 year mortgages, lowered interest rates to save our economy after the Great Reckoning.

One of the reason Canada was put up on a pedestal was the commodity boom resulting from printed money. We are just behind the US on the same roller coaster that seems evident.

#113 WomanWhoDoesn'tGetIt on 03.12.18 at 9:20 pm

What pisses me off is that I was using my “analytical mind” and applying it to our investments rather than other aspects of our lives. But of course, the irony of his criticism would never occur to him…lol. Sorry for the rant and slightly off-topic comment. Men…sigh.

#114 Gravy Train on 03.12.18 at 9:24 pm

#54 crowdedelevator on 03.12.18 at 6:39 pm
DELETED

Wow, this is the first time I’ve seen Crowdy in the penalty box? Was it a 5-minute major? :)

#115 young & foolish on 03.12.18 at 9:25 pm

The person who bought this is looking at land values in the surrounding area (RE is local, remember?). There are expensive towns and condos across the street and above $2 mil narrow new builds around the once shoddy, but quickly gentrifying area.

#116 Mark on 03.12.18 at 9:26 pm

https://youtu.be/tmUMTdiWRl4?t=428

Straight from Ross Kay’s mouth:

“May of 2013 was when peak [house] price was measured”

Couldn’t be any clearer or more unequivocal. So the people calling me a liar, are also, by implication, calling Ross Kay a liar. Is that really a road you want to go down?

#117 WomanWhoDoesn'tGetIt on 03.12.18 at 9:29 pm

I try. And I try, to explain the difference between investing and gambling. He kind of gets it. But then, you know, crypto is the future….

#118 Don Regan on 03.12.18 at 9:35 pm

Bored yesterday, decided to walk to Choices, nice
grocery store in my neighborhood. House has been on the market for a number of months.
7415 West Blvd, currently, asking $2,788.000. Orig
asking close to $3 Mil. Was there for approx 15 minutes
when three groups came through. Walked to the back of the property and I couldn”t find a Garage or a place to
park any vehicles. When I asked the Agent, she said
you can park on the Blvd. When I asked her for the
assessed value, she told me around $2.3 Mil. Who would buy a property without parking? I guess only in
VANCOUVER.

#119 Leo Trollstoy on 03.12.18 at 9:35 pm

Wouldve got max sale price in 2017

#120 Leo Trollstoy on 03.12.18 at 9:36 pm

Canadians have no assets

Just debt

$C is a failed currency

$US all day every day

#121 Karma on 03.12.18 at 9:39 pm

“Open Easter Weekend. Bring your bunny. – Garth”

Is your store not open for business during the winter months?

Is there no way a coffee atmosphere could work?

#122 DZH on 03.12.18 at 9:42 pm

My prediction about the Toronto budget made it into a Toronto star article today. Watch for GTA annual property taxes to rise after October 22. Perhaps we’ll even see an additional tax on foreign owners who purchased before the buyers tax? Oh and apparently transfer payments to Toronto end in 2018…

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/news/gta/2018/03/12/toronto-facing-a-massive-142-billion-budget-gap-in-five-years.html

#123 RedKnave on 03.12.18 at 9:50 pm

#113 WomanWhoDoesn’tGetIt Do what my wife does. She looks me in the eye when I ‘splain things, nods sagely and says she will look after whatever it is. And then does what she dam well pleases, which always turns out right.

#124 Smoking Man on 03.12.18 at 9:52 pm

As I called last year.
Ufo official disclosure in Nov 2018

I know shit.

https://youtu.be/fHwmWnY4P1w

#125 Welcome to Slurrey on 03.12.18 at 9:59 pm

#107 _ For those about to Flop …….. not sure if this will help you , but i use the Plentyofhomz app , it will tell you the sold price here in yvr as well as some other useful information. ……… check it out.

#126 Mattl on 03.12.18 at 10:02 pm

Mark – I wouldn’t call Ross a liar but he has been dramatically wrong on RE. If he is saying peak home in Van was in 2013 then he is covering his ass , he had that market ready to crash any moment starting in …..2010. Ross as RE expert is pretty humorous.

#127 Stan Brooks on 03.12.18 at 10:03 pm

#35 cultural elitist on 03.12.18 at 5:58 pm
@Stan Brooks – #224 previous thread:
:: Are you saying wikipedia is a fraud?

—————————

I found usually relatively relevant information on Wikipedia, or at least links to useful information as they normally include multiple sources for their articles.

On the topic I also included a Forbes article with numerous references to actual information.

Here it is, some facts, evidence vs. opinion:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/#7a8aecab4dcf

#128 For those about to flop... on 03.12.18 at 10:05 pm

While I’m backing the truck up on here tonight I might as well get the news on these guys as well.

Just removed,possibly sold.

As you can see by my notes ,they originally were chasing the best part of 4 million way back in October 2016.

Then 3.49 then 3.19 then 2.89 which was below the 3 even they paid for it during Spring Fling 2016.

Do they have tire marks on their torso?

Or just skid marks in their undies…

M43BC

2050 Russet Way, West Vancouver.paid 3.0 April 2016 now asking 2.89
$3,980,000
2016-10-31

2050 Russet Way, West Vancouver.
$3,499,000
2017-03-29

Now asking 3.19m as of May 3rd.

https://www.zolo.ca/west-vancouver-real-estate/2050-russet-way

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAyOTVBQg==

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#129 For those about to flop... on 03.12.18 at 10:06 pm

#114 Gravy Train on 03.12.18 at 9:24 pm
#54 crowdedelevator on 03.12.18 at 6:39 pm
DELETED

Wow, this is the first time I’ve seen Crowdy in the penalty box? Was it a 5-minute major? :)

/////////////////

He got 5 for farting…

M43BC

#130 For those about to flop... on 03.12.18 at 10:15 pm

#116 Mark on 03.12.18 at 9:26 pm
https://youtu.be/tmUMTdiWRl4?t=428

Straight from Ross Kay’s mouth:

“May of 2013 was when peak [house] price was measured”

Couldn’t be any clearer or more unequivocal. So the people calling me a liar, are also, by implication, calling Ross Kay a liar. Is that really a road you want to go down?

//////////////////////

Not real sure why you would tie your horse off to a dead tree…

M43BC

#131 Duke on 03.12.18 at 10:18 pm

Lulu Lemon CEO’s house was assessed at $57mil. It says ocean front but it just looks shitty if you check the picture. Tom Brady’s house is three times bigger and ten times better but priced only $20mil, less than half the price.

Every property in Canada is way overpriced. LOL

#132 joblo on 03.12.18 at 10:20 pm

My fav Canadian Norm Macdonald on elections, voting and Trudeau…Ha Ha

https://youtu.be/yT4ZIy8TjA0

#133 akashic records on 03.12.18 at 10:24 pm

#124 Smoking Man on 03.12.18 at 9:52 pm
As I called last year.
Ufo official disclosure in Nov 2018

I know shit.

https://youtu.be/fHwmWnY4P1w

These guys released the declassified footage. Weird organization, check out the bios of the executives.

https://dpo.tothestarsacademy.com/

#134 Dolce Vita on 03.12.18 at 10:24 pm

#61 VanMan

Keep telling yourself that.

Listed/Sold my New West condo after the US Great Recession in 2008.

Months before, similar places in my 20 storey condo building sold for $600 K (was on Strata Council then and knew the Owners personally).

My Top 1% Realtor, that I had been dealing with for over 15 years, tells me the list price should be $480 K and showed me selling prices for other places that sold in the area to corroborate what he was suggesting.

Ya, that’s a 20% price drop within 6 months. Not reported by the MSM. Nobody talked about it. The local RE Board BS’d their way thru it.

Hell no, La La Land never drops in price, no, never, ever. Merlin is there with his magic wand to prevent that from ever happening and the MSM say nothing for fear of losing their Weather Report Re/Max logo and House Insurance News Helicopter advertising.

Dream on.

And recall, Canada weathered that so called Great Recession storm with unemployment rates < 9% compared to early 80's and 90's recession unemployment rates of 12% to 13%.

So to all the RE pumpers that post their dream state, wish list here regularly, especially from La La Land – guess what, RE prices do correct/crash and you don't need high unemployment rates for that to happen.

Right now in YVR and 416 from what I read here is the same dung, different pile. 2018 will prove that to be true soon enough. They say Give Peace a Chance, well, Give B20 a Chance. The dung will hit the fan this Fall. In Spring people will test small discounts, because they are greedy, not sell and then drop their drawers en mass in the Fall.

Just like they did in 2008, early 90s and early 80s.

#135 MF on 03.12.18 at 10:25 pm

#79 Newcomer on 03.12.18 at 8:03 pm

“It is a row house, 14 feet wide. You missed this crucial piece of information because you were inattentive. What else are you missing due to inattention?”

-You are right I missed that.

Doesn’t matter though since the situation I described has been duplicated thousands of times over the course of a decade and a half, yielding millions (if not billions) of profits for those attempting it.

Maybe I will be more realistic: this ROWHOUSE, and all the others attached to it were most likely purchased by a developer who will demolish them all and build a condo complex with hundreds of units, each with a cost of 600k plus. Huge profits.

There.

MF

#136 Barb on 03.12.18 at 10:26 pm

Those “homes” pictured are only good for one thing.
Fire fighting practice, easy on the water, boys.

#137 Lillooet, BC on 03.12.18 at 10:27 pm

VanMan on 03.12.18 at 6:58 pm
… If you don’t believe me come for a visit to Vancouver…
********************

Doesn’t Flop and others provide actual and meaningful sales/listings from time?

#138 45north on 03.12.18 at 10:28 pm

Newcomer: It is a row house, 14 feet wide. You missed this crucial piece of information

Ace Goodheart: I can’t believe someone bought that. I was just kidding when I wrote I thought it was fixable. More than 1/2 a million dollars for that?

Ok: No bank will finance that property because it isn’t marketable. Most likely, an alternative lender. So, flipper needs to drop heavy cash on the interest and renovations to make this reasonable. Return on investment for sure will be negative. Good luck.

that’s what I thought when Garth first talked about it – no bank will finance it.

buying this property is stupid. It speaks of a religious faith in real estate – a faith which will be shaken. It will be more than shaken, it will be cast down. Right now.

#139 Lisa on 03.12.18 at 10:32 pm

#11 Caleb Landry:

WOW!! LOL!! Nice 14 million dollar house. The grey interior will match the grey BC sky outside for 11 months of the year.

#15 Chico

That cube looks like a replica of a Borg ship from Star Trek. And that bedroom…hideous!
—————————————————
Maybe the reason Millenials et al have made RE the new Klondike Gold Rush is that we do not have a vision or identity as Trudeau so eloquently and proudly put it. So what does a person do? They create a lifestyle and “future” for themselves and price is not an option.
The lack of vision and leadership this government is responsible for is going to have serious consequences. Where are we going as a country? What do we envision for ourselves and our children in the future?
We need a good, strong leader to take charge and do what is needed to get us back on track.
GARTH!

#140 Chico on 03.12.18 at 10:33 pm

#62 M on 03.12.18 at 7:00 pm

When people over 50 (6-7 generation Canadians) BELIEVE that debt doesn’t matter….all is lost my friend.

Immigrants have a bigger fetish with housing and expensive cars – myself a first gen immigrant I have studied that very carefully in my east european community. So these people don’t count since most of them chose to lose the quality that makes eastern europe resilient-> the historical perspective.

It’s a general observation that what’s left of the anglo saxon culture and the protestant thrift, no matter how “hypocritical” a “progressive” might stamp that, are still a bit more careful to the income-debt relation.

…and even they went overboard.

Things will indeed correct and people (in general) will become more cerebral. But only after a protracted depression and a bankrupt government.

Depressions and wars do have their role for when plebes get lost… teach the value of work, money and the love for one another. If it cant be obtained or kept in “good times”…the ferocious “bad times” do bring the society back on track. If it doesn’t…that society disappears.
Brutal reality proven dearly by history.

——————————————————

At about 15 my mom told me that “people don’t change unless they have to.” It’s unfortunate, but way more often than not, true. Trying to defy the laws of cause and effect never pays, so with the orgy of debt…it’s gonna really hurt a lot of people.

#141 Mark Knows All on 03.12.18 at 10:34 pm

#120 Leo Trollstoy on 03.12.18 at 9:36 pm
Canadians have no assets

Just debt

$C is a failed currency

$US all day every day

But since Canadian house prices peaked in 2013 we are experiencing mass deflation. Our dollar is getting more valuable because of the mass debt being repaid dollars are more scarce.

#142 Dolce Vita on 03.12.18 at 10:35 pm

#118 Don Regan

Who needs parking when you live in another country.

Ya Garth, I said that.

Let the bullets fly.

#143 Dolce Vita on 03.12.18 at 10:41 pm

#93 tccontrarian

Einstein was a Physicist not an Economist nor a RE appraiser (nor was he a Social Scientist).

Non sequitur quote.

#144 MF on 03.12.18 at 10:42 pm

#133 Lisa on 03.12.18 at 10:32 pm

“Maybe the reason Millenials et al have made RE the new Klondike Gold Rush is that we do not have a vision or identity as Trudeau so eloquently and proudly put it. So what does a person do? They create a lifestyle and “future” for themselves and price is not an option.”

-No. We just got screwed by our institutions (central banks, etc.) who left interest rates too low for too long, and did so precisely at a time when we were entering prime RE buying/family forming years (mid to late 20’s and up).

Add to this the fact that everyone else before us (gen x, boomers) made loads of cash by doing nothing except sitting in a property while being helped by said institutions. Basically they got lucky with zero talent involved, profiting immensely through no fault of their own. You therefore had a recipe for extreme house horniness among our cohort. Can’t blame us really. That’s how I see it.

MF

#145 Lost...but not leased on 03.12.18 at 10:42 pm

#106 Peter German…

Something VERY fishy…

Chandler had a project (two hi rises)in Richmond in early 2000’s, that also ran into legal problems..and drumm roll…Bowra came in and performed the receivers role.

This is starting to look formulaic.

#146 Yuus bin Haad on 03.12.18 at 10:43 pm

Big Al was one of the first to say it wasn’t fair to compare 2018 to 2017. Maybe he has a point – drop the highs and the lows – like in diving – HA!

#147 n1tro on 03.12.18 at 10:45 pm

#124 Smoking Man on 03.12.18 at 9:52 pm
As I called last year.
Ufo official disclosure in Nov 2018

I know shit.

https://youtu.be/fHwmWnY4P1w
—————————-
Disclosure in Nov 2018 you say? I’d put some money that there will be an “incident” like say a war or terrorist attack to distract us all…..like last time.

#148 Dief the chief on 03.12.18 at 10:45 pm

The ad should have read ‘just steps away from Queen St. Mental institution’ which by the way it really is.

#149 For those about to flop... on 03.12.18 at 10:49 pm

pm
#107 _ For those about to Flop …….. not sure if this will help you , but i use the Plentyofhomz app , it will tell you the sold price here in yvr as well as some other useful information. ……… check it out.

////////////////

Thanks for the suggestion.

Maybe you could do a few addresses for me?

One of the reasons it is done this way is because in the past I was accused of cheery picking.

I put the addresses up without knowing the answer and some make money ,some break even and the rest lose money.

People in Vancouver get to see what’s happening in real time.If no one responds ,I show what happens a few months later when b.c assessment updates the data base.

It’s all done in the name of transparency ,since this is one of the main problems people seem to have with the real estate boards…

M43BC

#150 For those about to flop... on 03.12.18 at 10:52 pm

Cheery picking?

That’s a new one.

Damn you autocorrect…

M43BC

#151 Boombust on 03.12.18 at 11:09 pm

#134 Dolce Vita.

Bang on. That was “the correction that never fully completed” due to all sorts of “manipulation”.

THAT is why this current Metro Van one will be 2x as bad as otherwise might have been the case back then.

My, people certainly DO have short memories, don’t they?

#152 waiting on the westcoast on 03.12.18 at 11:11 pm

#144 MF

Dude – While some of what got say may be true, every generation has had challenges, etc.

Maybe instead of “seeing it” that way, why don’t you work on how you are going to achieve given the current circumstance. And then make that happen…

#153 Chimingin on 03.12.18 at 11:13 pm

#144 – MF – Oh, stow it. Please don’t try to make me feel sorry for your generation’s utter lack of self-discipline. Screwed by the banks? Try 20% interest.
How you could possibly think that your generation is the only one to have suffered from challenges and bad news is laughable, except that your opinions are tragically, breathtakingly self-serving. None of you have had to fight a war, live through a depression, inflation, or anything that’s worse than not getting your dream job immediately out of obtaining your useless degrees. Your generation has failed to save, failed to exercise self-control. What a bunch of shallow, whiny narcissists. The universe existed before your time, and it will go on afterward. For the last time, all of millennial scum whose opinions on this board bore me to death, grow up.

#154 WomanWhoDoesn'tGetIt! on 03.12.18 at 11:14 pm

@RedKnave Thank you for that!

#155 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.12.18 at 11:14 pm

The market odds of acBOC rate hike are receding with Trudeau’s beat down of the macro economy. Foreign investors are flooding out with capital and jobs gone. There is zero capital investment hence the swoon in the loop. In another year the country will be begging Mexico for hand outs as the $C becomes worth less than toilet paper……but I’m sure the unions and CBC won’t notice because they’ll be busy trying to get Trudeau reelected in spite of his incompetence.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/12/canadas-dollar-at-risk-even-without-trade-issues.html

#156 Dmitry on 03.12.18 at 11:32 pm

#124 Smoking Man on 03.12.18 at 9:52 pm
As I called last year.
Ufo official disclosure in Nov 2018

I know shit.

https://youtu.be/fHwmWnY4P1w
—————————-

Nah, forget it. Just Russia testing their missiles with nuclear engines.

#157 TheDood on 03.12.18 at 11:49 pm

#61 VanMan
#134 Dolce Vita

I can’t help but feel that VanMan’s posts indicate some connection to RE industry, realtor or other. “Prices won’t drop, the dip won’t last, there’s always buyers, blah blah…”

Kind of pathetic really. This place (I live here too) is no different from anywhere else, except, the masses have been blitzed with brilliant RE marketing for 10 years running – “Prices only go up, the market is hot, buy now or you’ll never get in, prices will level but never drop, condos are on fire right now” and on and on…..there’s some new buzz phrase everyday coming from radio, TV, signage, and it’s every day all day. Hard to not jump on the bandwagon.

Debt levels will be the undoing of this part of the country. There is no industry to support the income required to buy here in YVR and Lower Mainland. The best jobs here are public service and guess what, even they don’t pay what is needed to afford RE purchase. How many people are going to sell in YVR and buy bigger and cheaper in Lower Mainland? I think vast majority who were going to already have. How many new immigrants can afford a 900k or 1 mil property? Apparently from VanMan’s perspective they all can.

Dolce is correct, give B20 a few more months and the vast majority who bought over their heads will be forced to sell, and there aren’t enough dummies left who will be willing to overpay. No, prices are headed south by lots, that is certain.

#158 Myra Andrews on 03.13.18 at 12:13 am

Greater Vancouver Housing Stats originally posted by realtor PaulB

March 12 New 327 Sold 139 TI: 8642
March 9 New 139 Sold 91 TI: 8510
March 8 New 196 Sold 118 TI: 8496
March 7 New 204 Sold 99 TI: 8442
March 6 New 246 Sold 130 TI: 8372
March 5 New 316 Sold 104 TI: 8344

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

#159 Myra Andrews on 03.13.18 at 12:15 am

Most Vancouver houses sold for below assessed value in February.

https://thinkpol.ca/2018/03/10/vancouver-houses-sold-assessed-value-february/

#160 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.13.18 at 12:21 am

@WomanWhoDoesn’tGetIt

Sounds like you’re the smart one in the relationship.

#161 will on 03.13.18 at 12:24 am

yeah that’s pretty rough livin. so did anyone actually live there in the last few years? pretty beat up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8dtL_soUbo

#162 Ed. on 03.13.18 at 12:28 am

#73 Whatcha Minnie on 03.12.18 at 7:39 pm

My wife is American and introduced me to grilled cheese sandwiches. Completely different to cheese toasties. Especially ones made in the old Breville. She butters one side of each slice of bread and puts one butter side down in the frying pan. On goes American cheese and a pan lid on top to melt the cheese. The next slice of buttered bread goes on top and the whole thing is flipped over to cook the other slice of the bread. Once it’s all caramelised it’s all done! Microwave a can of cream of tomato soup for dipping.
_———-

I have been a humble admirer for quite some time, but couldn’t quite place you. Hemingway and Bob Ross spliced into Rachel Ray ?

#163 conan on 03.13.18 at 12:34 am

Its not just the complete tear down. The bugs will come back if you don’t dig out the ground that the house sits on.

Don’t buy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ru_EiJgTodQ

#164 Eyestrain on 03.13.18 at 12:45 am

I fear kicking the hornet’s nest again, but what exactly is wrong with same-sex marriage? I could always use an extra hand in the garage, someone to share the yard chores makes short work, and the fuel savings alone of a live-in drinking buddy are obvious.

Women on the other hand, are as mysterious as calculus. Who but another woman can know what a woman wants? The old timers may yearn for the dark ages, and I can respect that, but whoever thought letting an unmuzzled Pit Bull run was a good idea?

#165 cultural elitist on 03.13.18 at 1:12 am

@Stan Brooks
Thanks for the link. This is not the place to debate climate science (we probably have points of agreement and disagreement), but I stand by my comment regarding sources: if you want to understand the state of a complex scientific investigation, Wikipedia is not a reliable source. Neither is Forbes magazine – Forbes writers are economists (!) — armchair scientists at best.

Want an informed opinion about climate change? Ask a few climate scientists – they devote more hours than anybody to the topic. Logical that their opinion counts for more than yours or mine, or some random economist.

We all have our biases, but what do the vast majority of climate scientists say?

“When the experts are agreed, the opposite opinion cannot be held to be certain. When they are not agreed, no opinion can be regarded as certain by a non-expert.” — Bertrand Russell

Peace, out.

#166 Floppy on 03.13.18 at 1:33 am

Flop 103 sold 2.68 & 102 next door 3.2

#167 Floppy on 03.13.18 at 1:36 am

1.253 LAKESHORE SOLD AT LOSS

#168 Iconoclast on 03.13.18 at 1:52 am

WomanWhoDoesn’tGetIt;

Here is some information for your “analytical” man.

A Bitcoin is a large prime number that when hashed with a particular algorithm, ends up producing a slightly interesting value. (Result has leading zeroes)
The first person to find a number like this ‘owns’ it.

That, AFAICT, is what a Bitcoin is.

Why would anyone pay for ‘ownership’ of a particular prime number?

Why indeed.

#169 Leo Trollstoy on 03.13.18 at 2:02 am

$C devaluing as inflation remains positive and stable

Less demand as people prefer $US as their expected bony continues to boom

Get in on that US tech gravy train and ride the wave!

Fed rate hike incoming!

$US all day every day

#170 SoggyShorts on 03.13.18 at 2:12 am

#127 Stan Brooks on 03.12.18 at 10:03 pm
#35 cultural elitist on 03.12.18 at 5:58 pm
@Stan Brooks – #224 previous thread:
:: Are you saying wikipedia is a fraud?

—————————
I found usually relatively relevant information on Wikipedia, or at least links to useful information as they normally include multiple sources for their articles.

On the topic I also included a Forbes article with numerous references to actual information.
Here it is, some facts, evidence vs. opinion:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/05/26/to-the-horror-of-global-warming-alarmists-global-cooling-is-here/#7a8aecab4dcf

*****************************
You will always be able to find bullshit if you look hard enough. The vast vast majority of scientists agree on climate change, but that no longer sells magazines like forbes, and doesn’t get ratings on Fox News.

Take your forbes article, and type each name in google followed by the phrase
“debunked in peer reviewed studies”

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-global-cooling-story-came-to-be/
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11645-climate-myths-we-are-simply-recovering-from-the-little-ice-age/
https://phys.org/news/2015-07-mini-ice-age-hoopla-giant.html

The mini ice age myth is total bullshit, and has been debunked all over the place, please stop spreading it.

#171 Our pal val on 03.13.18 at 2:14 am

As previously stated the BIS has everyone by the short and curlys… so now the big question… where do you put your money Garth with a possible bank bail out or bail in looming?… thanks!

#172 Flat Earth Society on 03.13.18 at 2:24 am

#160 JP Superstar (yesterday)

You can’t even read, or at least you read a lot more than what was said.

First off, I never said sending 18 year old kids to war was conscientious. That was a horrible straw man argument and your rhetoric license is revoked.

Second, if you’d followed my links that I posted about relativity, both good sources, you would see that Einstein wasn’t trying to explain nuclear physics when he developed relativity, but it just so happened to also apply to nuclear particles after he developed the theory. But it applies to all mass and movement not just atomic particles. So again you don’t know what you don’t know, even if you can get the current measurement units right.

#173 Flat Earth Society on 03.13.18 at 2:29 am

#244 theoryAndPractice (yesterday)

Yes I am aware of that. But the fact that I am aware my knowledge is not absolute does not mean yours is.

#174 Leo Trollstoy on 03.13.18 at 2:43 am

If YVR YYZ real estate peaked in 2013 my grandpa Wayne Pitzel will rise from the grave in 2018

#175 jane24 on 03.13.18 at 2:46 am

That home would not be mortgageble in Britain. It breaks quite few rules there – no kitchen, damp for a start. It would have to be a 100% cash purchase probably through a house auction company as again too beat up for the regular sales market. Then the new owner would have to wait 6 months during which time he will renovate according to banking rules before a mortgage could be raised on it. Watch BBC’s Homes Under the Hammer for even worse pre-examples including total burn-outs. Amazing what they can do to them but all 100% cash buys before reno and no-one is spending that kind of money.

#176 Rexx Rock on 03.13.18 at 3:16 am

I seen a crappy old 3bd 2 bath in East Vancouver for 1.60 million and nearly died laughing.The area has a lady of evening and a drug dealer on every corner.Homeless drug addicts sleeping in your front or back yard.Home owners feel like they won the lotto when their house or car have only been broken into 3 or 4 times in a year.8 months of pouring rain and the goverments moto is “Tax to the Max”.Traffic a total nightmare most of the day and evening.Crime is rampant because the port and drug trade.The best place on earth so the B.C. tourism commercials say.

#177 Howard on 03.13.18 at 5:45 am

I hope Premier Ford guts downtown Toronto so that every house south of Bloor eventually looks like that. Will look good on them.

#178 Westcdn Whining Grape on 03.13.18 at 6:12 am

In regard to personal debt, I have a personal rule of thumb to determine the maximum amount of debt I could be carrying.

Allowable Debt = C divided by P times I, where:
I = after tax income
P = prime bank interest rate
C = carrying load ( % of interest expense to after tax income – also cost of capital )

So if I bring home $100,000 after tax per year, prime bank rate is 2% and interest expense limited to 30% of my take home income, I get:
0.30 / 0.02 x $100,000 = $1,500,000 of allowable debt.

This would equate to $30,000 of annual interest (2%) expense for a debt carrying load of 30% of your after tax income.

This rule of thumb is very sensitive to prime bank rates as the rates approach zero and I strongly advise against personal debt exceeding 10 times your take home. Leverage cuts both ways. You don’t to play with dynamite near a FIRE. Even nations with government debt equal to their GDP are considered at high risk for default.

But what is interesting, if prime bank rate goes to 4%, then 0.30/0.04×100,000 = $750,000 debt limit. Now, I have a big problem. If I don’t reduce my debt by $750,000, then my debt servicing load goes to 60% because my interest expense has increased to $60,000 (0.04 x 1,500,000). I would be trying to sell assets for the best price and then decide about bankruptcy. Everything would be fine if I continued to service my debt or someone bought my assets at my paid price. That is not likely. The same problem applies to business.

The Bank of Canada cannot risk raising interest rates quickly without creating shock. Where did asset bubbles come? Obviously, when interest rates were falling, I could use more debt for things. Those 65+ that owned assets caught a sweet spot but not all benefited. Meanwhile the rest of us did okay. We all got spoiled with cheap money. You are dreaming if you believe debt will get cheaper from here – better to buckle up for leaner times.

I won’t mind if my vision is wrong or I don’t end up as a whining grape.

#179 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.13.18 at 6:20 am

So I guess we get the leaders we deserve. And you didn’t deserve me.

Hold on a second…

You’re for PROPERTY RIGHTS and smaller government. Correct?

Forget the cons and libs, run as a Libertarian!!!

You would absolutely have my vote, and better yet, if you carefully select your riding and run an effective campaign, you could actually win a seat and become the defacto Libertarian party leader and represent a lone voice in parliament, championing the cause of property rights and smaller government. You could then force your way into the national debate a la Elizabeth May, and perhaps start a movement. And still write on this blog without fear of being booted from the party, since you would be the top dog…

Just leave the lib/progressive crap at the door and focus on what really matters… You know, the main theme of this blog.

You could very well be a future PM. The landscape is ripe for a new, fresh outsider who has common sense solutions. A rebel.

My $0.02

#180 NoName on 03.13.18 at 6:56 am

Some good morning read

http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/07/chinas-long-arm-reaches-into-american-campuses-chinese-students-scholars-association-university-communist-party/#

#181 dharma bum on 03.13.18 at 7:14 am

#50 JSS

How does a house reach such a state of disrepair?
——————————————————————–

How?

Crack ho’s.

No matter.

Bathfitter, Ikea, Home Depot, and she’s good as new.

Some A-hole hipster millennial couple will dig it, and cough up the ching (from their folks), and finance the rest.

#182 MF on 03.13.18 at 7:36 am

#153 Chimingin on 03.12.18 at 11:13 pm

“Your generation has failed to save, failed to exercise self-control. What a bunch of shallow, whiny narcissists. The universe existed before your time, and it will go on afterward. For the last time, all of millennial scum whose opinions on this board bore me to death, grow up.”

-Millennial scum? Hey I cannot speak for all of my generation (i’m older at 34) but you sound miserable. Simply put. Someone miserable who cannot read context, who acts on emotion rather than logic, and who is getting caught up in some BS generation war. Actually as I read your response a second time it became clear you weren’t even responding to me but at some amorphous generic group of people you developed some negative opinion about in the past. Basically a worthless outpouring of emotional drivel.

Anyways,

The poster above asked why our generation is so comfortable with debt, and the answer to the question was given.

-Nobody mentioned a lack of war (even though we had Iraq/Afghanistan)
-Nobody mentioned depression (even though we had to live through the joke that was 2008)
-Nobody mentioned runaway inflation (even though ACTUAL inflation is much higher than reported)

That being said,

This blog is a forum about the housing/debt bubble. In that arena, at least here in the GTA, there are real present day challenges for everyone. This is regardless of what you think of “millennial scum”, or your opinion on the Vietnam war, OPEC oil crisis, great depression etc.

Context.

MF

#183 Ford v. Churchill on 03.13.18 at 8:02 am

“We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills.” Churchill

“We’re going to win areas that have never went PC before,” Ford

#184 Facepalm on 03.13.18 at 8:19 am

“…no matter the result you still can’t swing a decent-sized cat inside.”

Garth,
Scotch drinkers don’t giggle but how do you ever when you come up with stuff like this?!

#185 Gravy Train on 03.13.18 at 8:23 am

#150 For those about to flop… on 03.12.18 at 10:52 pm
“Cheery picking? That’s a new one. Damn you autocorrect…
M43BC”

My worst instance of autocorrection was its changing cotton ginnery to cotton gingery. D’oh! (I overlooked the change.)

#186 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.18 at 8:30 am

@#114 Gravy Train
“Wow, this is the first time I’ve seen Crowdy in the penalty box? ”
++++++
Nope.
Been there before.
Alas.
We all have our scars to bare.
Try as I unintentionally might. I will never “earn” as many “Deleted” badges as Smokey. He’s the king.

Ewan McGregor, Youtube, Trainspotting, bathroom scene.

Could easily have been filmed at our “fixer upper for sale” 15 Rebecca.

#187 JP Superstar on 03.13.18 at 8:35 am

#172 Flat Earth Society on 03.13.18 at 2:24 am

#160 JP Superstar (yesterday)

You can’t even read, or at least you read a lot more than what was said.

First off, I never said sending 18 year old kids to war was conscientious. That was a horrible straw man argument and your rhetoric license is revoked.

Second, if you’d followed my links that I posted about relativity, both good sources, you would see that Einstein wasn’t trying to explain nuclear physics when he developed relativity, but it just so happened to also apply to nuclear particles after he developed the theory. But it applies to all mass and movement not just atomic particles. So again you don’t know what you don’t know, even if you can get the current measurement units right.

***********
I actually read more psychology than I care to recall during my undergrad, which allows me to judge Jordan Peterson completely on his merits. He has few. While it is often correctly surmised that a PhD candidate learns more and more about less and less, mine is in the field of nuclear resonance. What I don’t know approaches infinity, but what I don’t care to know are your suppositions, or the ramblings of your guiding light.

#188 Gravy Train on 03.13.18 at 8:40 am

#183 Ford v. Churchill on 03.13.18 at 8:02 am
We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills. — Churchill

We’re going to win areas that have never went PC before. — Ford”

Yes, it’s the dumbing down of our political leaders: first with Trump and now with Ford.

The 2006 Mike Judge-directed movie Idiocracy takes this idea to the nth degree. I haven’t seen the movie, but I’ve read that it “received generally positive reviews from critics and has become a cult film.”

#189 The Wince-ler on 03.13.18 at 8:49 am

overlooked the change.)

#186 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.13.18 at 8:30 am
@#114 Gravy Train
“Wow, this is the first time I’ve seen Crowdy in the penalty box? ”
++++++
Nope.Been there before.Alas.
We all have our scars to bare.
Try as I unintentionally might. I will never “earn” as many “Deleted” badges as Smokey…….

************
What this dog house eagerly anticipates are the unpublished expositions of a Mr. “dakkie” of 666 Burning Cross Rd. , Garth-on-Mute, Gets-Turners, Eire .

#190 Tater on 03.13.18 at 8:54 am

#37 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.12.18 at 6:00 pm
$675k for that shithole and you think the market is gonna crash ? Hahhaha…..think again, not gonna happen….No crash, no big slow melt. Just a minor adjustment / levelling off in prices then sideways for a decade.
—————————————————————–

Do you have an example of when that has ever happened before? If not, why do you think it will now?

#191 Lisa on 03.13.18 at 8:54 am

MF:
Yes, that is true about rates being low. I think there are many factors, some more obvious than others. I still think that a lack of vision has something to do with this. All top companies have a vision statement, and so should countries.

The ones you posted (lack of war, inflation, no real recession) are bang on! We don’t know what hard times really are!

I’m 38 (I have no idea what “generation” I am) and the first “war” I remember is Desert Storm.

#192 Howard on 03.13.18 at 8:59 am

188 Gravy Train on 03.13.18 at 8:40 am

Yes, it’s the dumbing down of our political leaders: first with Trump and now with Ford.

———————————

Sorry but after Trudeau, progressives have forever lost any and all credibility to cast aspersions on the intellect of conservative or populist leaders.

#193 Tater on 03.13.18 at 9:00 am

#52 MF on 03.12.18 at 6:38 pm
#38 Linda on 03.12.18 at 6:05 pm

We already know the story.

The buyer (foreign or domestic doesn’t matter) will tear it down, then build an eyesore of a McMansion.

Total cost for materials, building the McMansion ~400k. Total cost for land + materials + building = about 1M.

They will then list the new house for 1.7 M. It will sell for 1.6M. People on this blog will use this as an example of “house prices falling”. They are wrong. Total profit will be about 500k. Rinse repeat.

MF
—————————————————————
If they can figure out how to replace a row house with a McMansion, they deserve their 500k.

#194 Bored Nation on 03.13.18 at 9:07 am

ramblings of your guiding light.

#188 Gravy Train on 03.13.18 at 8:40 am

#183 Ford v. Churchill on 03.13.18 at 8:02 am
“We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills. — Churchill

We’re going to win areas that have never went PC before. — Ford”

Yes, it’s the dumbing down of our political leaders: first with Trump and now with Ford.

The 2006 Mike Judge-directed movie Idiocracytakes this idea to the nth degree. I haven’t seen the movie, but I’ve read that it “received generally positive reviews from critics and has become a cult film.”
***********

I seen it. Luved it. I consider it “The Lightest Hour” of its genre.

#195 Johnnyboy on 03.13.18 at 9:14 am

#188 Gravy Train on 03.13.18 at 8:40 am

#183 Ford v. Churchill on 03.13.18 at 8:02 am
“We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills. — Churchill

We’re going to win areas that have never went PC before. — Ford”

Yes, it’s the dumbing down of our political leaders: first with Trump and now with Ford.

The 2006 Mike Judge-directed movie Idiocracy takes this idea to the nth degree. I haven’t seen the movie, but I’ve read that it “received generally positive reviews from critics and has become a cult film.”
……………………………………………………………….
Not quite sure how dumb down Trump is, he is not a bright and well groomed person but he is a conniving, scheming, con man who is street smart like a made-man in the cosa. So picture this Trump marries Melania in January of 2005. They had signed a prenuptial agreement. Nine months later, in September, “Access Hollywood” records Trump boasting about sexually assaulting women — kissing and groping them without prior consent — and claiming: “When you’re a star they let you do it. You can do anything.”
Six months after the tape is recorded, on March 20, 2006, Mr. and Mrs. Trump’s son Barron is born. (That means that Melania was pregnant when Trump was making his lewd remarks about assaulting other women.) Four months after Barron is born, porn star Stephanie Clifford, whose stage name is Stormy Daniels, alleged that she and Trump initiated a consensual, sexual relationship after meeting at a golf tournament.
Clifford alleges that the “intimate relationship” began in July 2006 and continued “well into the year 2007.” This forays with the two porn stars during the time his wife just gave birth.
Trump also goes on “The View” in 2006 and says of Ivanka: “ she does have a very nice figure. I’ve said if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her.” His daughter! And remember, he is newly married to Melania, who will give birth to Barron just 14 days after his appearance on the show.
Melania definitely knew about all of this or she is legally blind and deaf. Now the question is how much money and security does she get to hold hands with Lucifer. Trump is sleazy and not bright but dumb not quite sure on this. Doug Ford now there is a dumb guy, a nice guy but a bit dumb. His brother was the smart one with a big heart but had his demons and was careless. Trump is also careless he just has more power to wipe his ass clean after every time he takes a dump.

#196 Ace Goodheart on 03.13.18 at 9:22 am

Re: #50 JSS on 03.12.18 at 6:37 pm

“How does a house reach such a state of disrepair?”

My guess would be that this “Prime Location!” house is actually located on “low income row” near where all the apartments are, between Ossington and Shaw. It likely has that interior condition, because it was used as a rooming house for about 40 years or so, and no one ever painted it or cleaned it. That would be my guess.

How that is worth 675K is beyond my comprehension. The front yard is the size of a child’s sand box. The backyard is so small you could barely park a mid sized SUV in it. And it backs onto a parking lot, so no privacy whatsoever. Your rear neighbors will be junkies and dealers, and Friday and Saturday nights will be the usual broken bottles, bar fights and public urination on your rear property line.

That is a brutal joke on someone. That is not a “prime neighbourhood”. Look at the neighboring houses. They are as dilapidated as that one. The one on the left looks like the upper floor’s roof is collapsing at the front. That section of Ossington is full of self storage places and vacant store fronts with seedy apartments on the upper floors. You could literally not allow your child to play outside at any time of the day (or in the backyard, unless you wanted them playing in stale urine and old hypodermic needles left by the neighborhood junkies.

Go down to 15 Rebecca and have a walk if you don’t believe me. I know that area of town. Anyone who calls that neighborhood “Tony” or “Prime” is crazy.

#197 James on 03.13.18 at 9:28 am

WTF
President Donald Trump has fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and is replacing him with CIA Director Mike Pompeo. “Mike Pompeo, Director of the CIA, will become our new Secretary of State. He will do a fantastic job! Thank you to Rex Tillerson for his service! Gina Haspel will become the new Director of the CIA, and the first woman so chosen. Congratulations to all!” Trump tweeted. Wow working for Trump is a short term position they are all Temps.

#198 Stan Brooks on 03.13.18 at 9:31 am

#170 SoggyShorts on 03.13.18 at 2:12 am

The vast vast majority of scientists agree on climate change,

————————————–

Of course climate changes, no place has constant weather. It changes all the time, it always had, in some places there are 4 seasons, in same places 2.
Snow in the winter, sun in the summer.

No need for ‘vast vast majority of scientists ‘ to confirm that.

If you believe that last 4-5 winters in the northern part of the northern hemisphere were warmer, like Canada or UK, that is just fine.
I am not arguing with believers.

#199 Wrk.dover on 03.13.18 at 9:32 am

Rex Tillerson going on pogey !!!

draw some conclusions for us now Trumpocolyps guy.

#200 James on 03.13.18 at 9:32 am

Oh that’s what got him fired! Tillerson told the truth. Ah ha.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson issued a harsh condemnation of Russia following a nerve agent attack on a former Russian spy in the United Kingdom last week, going further than the White House’s response stopping short of pinning blame for the attack on Moscow. Little Donald Trump should check to see if he has any kahunas left or is Putin holding them?

#201 Another Deckchair on 03.13.18 at 9:38 am

@113 WomanWhoDoesn’tGetIt

It takes time. Give him a monthly update.

My spouse deals with numbers all day, and it did take a bit of time for us to tear ourselves away from one of the investment houses.

I think what did it for us was that, I had done the figures, came up with retirement cash flow numbers, AND THEN the finance house did their song and dance, and came up with the same numbers (to within a percent or so).

I did not have the fancy graphs and doughnuts and so forth, but spouse knew to look for the wheat within the chaff.

When my spouse said “what are we paying them 2.5% for? You got the same numbers” then, bingo, we were free AND on the same page.

We are still making changes, but to go to a business like Garths’ is certainly not out of the picture – I have no problem with paying for help and guidance – there are many bright minds out there – and fee-only investment advisor makes a lot of sense (not done it yet, though)

#202 James on 03.13.18 at 9:44 am

#187 JP Superstar on 03.13.18 at 8:35 am

#172 Flat Earth Society on 03.13.18 at 2:24 am

#160 JP Superstar (yesterday)

You can’t even read, or at least you read a lot more than what was said.

First off, I never said sending 18 year old kids to war was conscientious. That was a horrible straw man argument and your rhetoric license is revoked.

Second, if you’d followed my links that I posted about relativity, both good sources, you would see that Einstein wasn’t trying to explain nuclear physics when he developed relativity, but it just so happened to also apply to nuclear particles after he developed the theory. But it applies to all mass and movement not just atomic particles. So again you don’t know what you don’t know, even if you can get the current measurement units right.

***********
I actually read more psychology than I care to recall during my undergrad, which allows me to judge Jordan Peterson completely on his merits. He has few. While it is often correctly surmised that a PhD candidate learns more and more about less and less, mine is in the field of nuclear resonance. What I don’t know approaches infinity, but what I don’t care to know are your suppositions, or the ramblings of your guiding light.
……………………………………………………………..
Best explanation https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/significance-e-mc-2-means/
Personally I’m looking for FTL via the Alcubierre metric.

#203 Mark on 03.13.18 at 10:17 am

“Mark – I wouldn’t call Ross a liar but he has been dramatically wrong on RE. If he is saying peak home in Van was in 2013 then he is covering his ass , he had that market ready to crash any moment starting in …..2010. Ross as RE expert is pretty humorous.”

I was mostly responding to someone who called me a misquoter of Ross Kay a week or two in the comments.

Anyways, I don’t know what’s so difficult about 2013 being the peak of Canadian, including Vancouver/Toronto RE being so hard to understand. It basically coincided with the Minister of Finance’s implementation of crackdown on the expansion of publicly sponsored subprime mortgage insurance. If not apparently obvious to those transacting in Canadian RE in the post-2013 peak era, it should be pretty obvious from the profound move towards deflation that the Canadian economy has experienced in the post-RE peak era. With the Bank of Canada unable to meet its inflation target of 2% by a wide margin, a trend which is likely to worsen in coming months.

As far as credentials, he claims to have sold thousands of houses, and appears to demonstrate a deep knowledge of the statistical composition of the housing market on a micro basis (I used macro statistics to come up with 2013 being the peak — so our approaches were completely independent, yet yielded similar results!). The Realtors, on the other hand, with few exceptions, rarely discuss the sales mix, nor the impact of flooding the market with brand new supply. Nor what happens when first time buyers are locked out when CMHC subprime mortgage insurance issuance slows dramatically. Conveniently avoiding such topics while making nonsensical and disprovable claims of ‘rising prices’.

#204 Headline (forms to the right of the guillotine) on 03.13.18 at 10:18 am

Mike Pence out, Julia Louis-Dreyfus in as VEEP in White House shuffle.

Trump tweeted “Mike is happier now, and Julia has already shone what a great job she can do.”

#205 Penny Henny on 03.13.18 at 10:34 am

From Garth’s own blog dated May 30th, 2013

“Speaking of market timing and death by home, let’s revisit GTA-area realtor Ross Kay, whose bold prediction that house horniness has just died got a lot of people excited. You may recall that he has a ‘real estate engagement’ index that pinpointed May 19th as the day the market expired, and that interest has now declined 73% from its peak last April.”

Boy oh boy. Ross missed the peak by 4 years.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/05/30/of-men-bonds/

#206 gary smith on 03.13.18 at 10:34 am

Anyone (realtors) have insight into what is happening in the Vancouver condo presale market? Are we still at 1000-1250$/sqft?

Looking to get into a pre-sale. Wondering what the situation behind the scenes is.

GS

#207 gary smith on 03.13.18 at 10:39 am

For those about to flop…..here is one in New West. I was amazed at people losing their shirt to get into New West, one of the highest crime cities in Canada. SFH went vertical- despite the fact many are turn-of-the century s**t boxes which need full restoration.

215 Princess St. For sale at 1,258,000. Sitting Empty

Sold in Feb 2015 at 765,000
Sold in Jun 2016 at 1,172,000

https://www.zolo.ca/new-westminster-real-estate/215-princess-street

#208 Gravy Train on 03.13.18 at 10:40 am

Wow, what a bombshell! Tillerson is out, Pompeo is in!

The CIA nominee Gina Haspel is Donald Trump’s kind of gal.

Here’s part of her bio (from Wikipedia):
“On December 17, 2014, the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights pressed criminal charges against unidentified CIA operatives, after the US Senate Select Committee published its report on torture by US intelligence agencies.

“On June 7, 2017, the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights called on the Public Prosecutor General of Germany to issue an arrest warrant against Haspel over claims she oversaw the torture of terrorism suspects. The complaint against her is centered on the case of Saudi national Abu Zubaydah.”
Notes: 1) Ben Knight: “NGO seeks arrest warrant for Donald Trump′s deputy CIA director,” Deutsche Welle, June 7, 2017; 2) US News/ AP: “Rights Group Asks Germany to Arrest CIA Deputy Director,” 7 June 2017; 3) Christian Fuchs: “CIA: Trump’s Darling,” Die Zeit, 7 June 2017 (in English).

#209 Stan Brooks on 03.13.18 at 10:43 am

188 Gravy Train on 03.13.18 at 8:40 am
#183 Ford v. Churchill on 03.13.18 at 8:02 am
“We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills. — Churchill

We’re going to win areas that have never went PC before. — Ford”

Yes, it’s the dumbing down of our political leaders: first with Trump and now with Ford.

The 2006 Mike Judge-directed movie Idiocracy takes this idea to the nth degree. I haven’t seen the movie, but I’ve read that it “received generally positive reviews from critics and has become a cult film.”

—————————-

Idiocracy is a fantastic movie. Mirror of our reality, including intellectually.

Mike Judge also directed Office Space.

=======================

Loonie very badly beaten today against USD, Euro, even with oil up marginally.

Mark’s ‘deflation’ in action.

The more in debt you are, the stronger your currency becomes according to him.

Loonie holder.

#210 Trump v. Churchill on 03.13.18 at 10:46 am

“When you have to kill a man, it costs nothing to be polite.” Churchill

“I think Rex will be much happier now”.
Trump (via Twitter)

#211 russell on 03.13.18 at 10:47 am

The only thing holding this lovely potential together is the termites holding hands… after pouring $300 large into this sewer pipe is it really going to be worth a million???

#212 IHCTD9 on 03.13.18 at 11:03 am

#153 Chimingin on 03.12.18 at 11:13 pm

#144 – MF – Oh, stow it. Please don’t try to make me feel sorry for your generation’s utter lack of self-discipline. Screwed by the banks? Try 20% interest.
________________________________

Indeed there are some power whining Millennials out there – although MF is not one of them. Your post would have probably been better directed at SCM if she gets her posting privileges back some day.

A few things Millennials did get screwed on:

1. Post secondary education: Never been more expensive – never been worth less in the job market.

2. Immigration: Job competition (for actual good jobs) coming in by the hundreds of thousands every year. All will work cheap to gain a foothold in Canada. Most have no student debt and come here in the black financially.

3. Taxes: Never been higher. Never provided less benefit to the common born here, tax slave Canadian schmuck.

The way forward for the new youth of Canada is somewhere off the path taken by the Boomers and us Gen X’ers. We may be on the cusp of a change as big as leaving the farms and fields to work in a factory was 200 years ago.

#213 For those about to flop... on 03.13.18 at 11:12 am

Floppy at 1:33 am
Flop 103 sold 2.68 & 102 next door 3.2

/////////////////

Thanks Good Samaritan,you are a good witness for me.

So they paid 2.98 and held onto it for three years and sold it for 2.68.

That’s a 10% loss right there ,and by the time you add in expenses and a little for opportunities lost and you are up over 20% or 550k loss on a condo.

I will present this case as CONFIRMED PINK SNOW when b.c assessment updates everything but I am grateful for the assistance and someone to keep the process transparent…

M43BC

Sold for 2.68

103 5151 Brighouse Way Rich. Paid 2.98 asking 2.98 Confirmed by old bird.

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/5151-brighouse-way/a103

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDBKUFFHWg==

#214 IHCTD9 on 03.13.18 at 11:17 am

#110 WomanWhoDoesn’tGetIt on 03.12.18 at 9:08 pm
______

Tell him he can do whatever he wants – after he signs the Postnuptial agreement…

#215 Victor V on 03.13.18 at 11:34 am

GTA, Oakville and Hamilton luxury home sales fell by 60%: RE/MAX

https://www.bnn.ca/gta-oakville-and-hamilton-luxury-home-sales-fell-by-60-re-max-1.1025608

TORONTO — Luxury home sales in the Greater Toronto Area, Oakville and Hamilton-Burlington have fallen by almost 60 per cent year-over-year, according to a RE/MAX report.

The real estate company says 76 freehold and condominium properties in the GTA sold for more than $3 million between Jan. 1 and Feb. 28, down from 180 sales during the same period last year.

In Oakville, six homes in the same price range sold early this year, in comparison to 15 a year ago.

Homes priced above $1 million in Hamilton-Burlington saw a 55 per cent drop to 59 homes sold at the start of the year from 133 in 2017.

#216 For those about to flop... on 03.13.18 at 11:35 am

Floppy 1:36 am
1.253 LAKESHORE SOLD AT LOSS

///////////////////

Hey Good Samaritan,yes the took a loss but they did fairly well to limit the damage all things considered.

Their assessment took a dive from 1.23 to 1.15 and so they got 100k more than assessment,which people are struggling to do.

Paid 1.27

Sold 1.25

So after all else considered on paper this looks like a 100k loss but the wrinkle with this one is they appear to have done a renovation as the house looks largely different from when it was last on the market in early 2016.

We will never know but I will go easy on them and say another 100k for the renovation,for combined loss of 200k.

If you look at their original asking price of 1.35 they were never going to do better than break even.

They certainly weren’t trying to rip anyone off.

Paid full rate themselves and then made improvements to the house ,so the neighbors were the real winners.

Every case has an untold story and perhaps these guys were fairly innocent victims and bought the wrong house at the wrong time…

M43BC

These people spent 1.27 April 2016 ass1.15

653 Lakeshore Drive, Coquitlam

2016-11-01 : $1,350,000
2017-06-11 : $1,190,000
2017-08-09 : $1,370,000
2018-02-13 : $1,288,000
2017-02-23 : $1,299,000

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAzWExYQw==

https://www.zolo.ca/coquitlam-real-estate/653-lakeshore-drive

#217 Tony on 03.13.18 at 11:42 am

Anyone who thinks the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates this April better read Stephen Poloz’s comments today. I already know he won’t raise rates this April and doubt he’ll raise rates again this entire year. Open season on the Canadian dollar.

#218 James on 03.13.18 at 11:51 am

#196 Ace Goodheart on 03.13.18 at 9:22 am

Re: #50 JSS on 03.12.18 at 6:37 pm

“How does a house reach such a state of disrepair?”

My guess would be that this “Prime Location!” house is actually located on “low income row” near where all the apartments are, between Ossington and Shaw. It likely has that interior condition, because it was used as a rooming house for about 40 years or so, and no one ever painted it or cleaned it. That would be my guess.

How that is worth 675K is beyond my comprehension. The front yard is the size of a child’s sand box. The backyard is so small you could barely park a mid sized SUV in it. And it backs onto a parking lot, so no privacy whatsoever. Your rear neighbors will be junkies and dealers, and Friday and Saturday nights will be the usual broken bottles, bar fights and public urination on your rear property line.

That is a brutal joke on someone. That is not a “prime neighbourhood”. Look at the neighboring houses. They are as dilapidated as that one. The one on the left looks like the upper floor’s roof is collapsing at the front. That section of Ossington is full of self storage places and vacant store fronts with seedy apartments on the upper floors. You could literally not allow your child to play outside at any time of the day (or in the backyard, unless you wanted them playing in stale urine and old hypodermic needles left by the neighborhood junkies.

Go down to 15 Rebecca and have a walk if you don’t believe me. I know that area of town. Anyone who calls that neighborhood “Tony” or “Prime” is crazy.
………………………………………………………….
This house is major disrepair! Check it out.

https://www.google.ca/maps/place/The+White+House/@38.8976763,-77.0387185,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x89b7b7bcdecbb1df:0x715969d86d0b76bf!8m2!3d38.8976763!4d-77.0365298?dcr=0

#219 Alex N calgary on 03.13.18 at 12:07 pm

I remember just a few years ago, we’d get news of some price correction, no Gov. intervention, just some prices going down and we’d think “this is it! the bubble is decreasing” then it would roar ahead. Now, real intervention, I wonder if it will be enough? I underestimated how the entire heard roaring ahead, how much momentum that has and how long it takes to run dry HELOC’s subsidizing rental properties that are Vacant (calgary).

The horrible realization is that all those people who went to those cheesy get-rich-on-real-estate meetings a few years back, probably made real money on that, ignorant, charging ahead, thats a tough pill.

I wonder if we truely will have new mortgage regs, that limit finance ability, houses in such a slow melt they just become unaffordable (buy now or be priced out forever, could this be true?), all braggert people here, who jumped into as much debt as they could handle, they are the ones left smiling in the end, I wonder if thats what will happen here, I hope not, I fear it will.

Keep up the good work.

#220 conan on 03.13.18 at 12:09 pm

The Whatever President strikes again.
I guess the plan is to stop by the Beer Store, on the way to the meeting with Kim, and pick up a box.

https://youtu.be/FHlo_N34vuo?list=PLuinB5pSCANlii2difmgHGOiwNyGeTIYM&t=4

#221 James on 03.13.18 at 12:19 pm

President Donald Trump’s longtime personal aide John McEntee was just fired because he is currently under investigation by the Department of Homeland Security for serious financial crimes, a source familiar with his firing told CNN.
Working at the White house gives a whole ne meaning to the Apprentice!
Your fired!

#222 Dead Cat Bounce on 03.13.18 at 12:22 pm

#153 Chimingin on 03.12.18 at 11:13 pm
#144 – MF – Oh, stow it. Please don’t try to make me feel sorry for your generation’s utter lack of self-discipline. Screwed by the banks? Try 20% interest.
How you could possibly think that your generation is the only one to have suffered from challenges and bad news is laughable, except that your opinions are tragically, breathtakingly self-serving. None of you have had to fight a war, live through a depression, inflation, or anything that’s worse than not getting your dream job immediately out of obtaining your useless degrees. Your generation has failed to save, failed to exercise self-control. What a bunch of shallow, whiny narcissists. The universe existed before your time, and it will go on afterward. For the last time, all of millennial scum whose opinions on this board bore me to death, grow up.

——————————————————————
Well said !!!
You only missed the part about the free “Gold Stars and Blue Ribbons” being handed out for showing up !!!

M54BC

#223 Gravy Train on 03.13.18 at 12:37 pm

#183 Ford v. Churchill on 03.13.18 at 8:02 am
We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills. — Churchill”

#210 Trump v. Churchill on 03.13.18 at 10:46 am
When you have to kill a man, it costs nothing to be polite. — Churchill

I think Rex will be much happier now. — Trump (via Twitter)”

The movie Darkest Hour is well worth seeing! There were some great lines from the movie (spoiler alert):
• When will the lesson be learned? How many more dictators must be wooed, appeased—Good God, given immense privileges, before we learn—that you can’t reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth!;
• Miss? I’m coming out in a state of nature!;
• My party resents how Chamberlain was pushed aside. And many others doubt me. I was not a popular choice. They want Halifax still. But why get rid of the organ grinder and replace him with the monkey?

Trump’s greatest line (not from the movie) is: I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters!

#224 For those about to flop... on 03.13.18 at 12:45 pm

#207 gary smith on 03.13.18 at 10:39 am
For those about to flop…..here is one in New West. I was amazed at people losing their shirt to get into New West, one of the highest crime cities in Canada. SFH went vertical- despite the fact many are turn-of-the century s**t boxes which need full restoration.

215 Princess St. For sale at 1,258,000. Sitting Empty

Sold in Feb 2015 at 765,000
Sold in Jun 2016 at 1,172,000

https://www.zolo.ca/new-westminster-real-estate/215-princess-street

////////////////

Hey Gary, I will put it in the Pink a Snow Folder and see what happens.

You can certainly pick them.

Of the three other cases you helped me out with, 2 sold relatively quick and are sitting in my Waiting for Confirmation Folder and the third was just removed,possibly sold and so that is a vast difference from some of the cases that I presented last night that took 2/3 years to play out.

We will never know what the results would have been if they had cut the cord quicker than your cases ,but I wonder how much longer before the wider consensus is that waiting for the market to come back is not the way to go…

M43BC

#225 Pre-retiree on 03.13.18 at 1:05 pm

I should not have looked at these pictures while I was having my lunch. I feel nauseated now.

#226 Newcomer on 03.13.18 at 1:08 pm

#157 TheDood on 03.12.18 at 11:49 pm
… There is no industry to support the income required to buy here in YVR and Lower Mainland.
—–
Everything you say is true but let’s not forget that this has all been true for 15 years, and is equally true in places like New Zealand and Norway. I think it is fair to say that, at the moment, ordinary market theory does not do a very good job of predicting real estate market behavior. Eventually, gravity will kick in, but I am not counting on that happening at any time that is relevant to me.

I currently look at real estate the same way I look at precious metals. They go up and down and I just don’t care. I wouldn’t be shocked if gold sold for 20 bucks an ounce tomorrow, or 2000. Who knows what those guys are thinking. Same deal with real estate.

#227 rain coming on 03.13.18 at 1:16 pm

#104 arfmoocat on 03.12.18 at 8:53 pm
“+22C today in Van

exotic sports cars, Harley’s, shorts and t-shirts every where”

only half that today with rain on the horizon. what a difference a day makes. just like our RE.

if you see the mountains – the rain is coming, if you can’t – it’s already here.

#228 Midnights on 03.13.18 at 1:17 pm

He’s talking crap.
“Sweet spot”, really?
Bank of Canada: degree of untapped potential remains in economy…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-economy-boc/bank-of-canada-degree-of-untapped-potential-remains-in-economy-idUSKCN1GP1Y2

#229 Stan Brooks on 03.13.18 at 1:20 pm

#217 Tony on 03.13.18 at 11:42 am
Anyone who thinks the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates this April better read Stephen Poloz’s comments today. I already know he won’t raise rates this April and doubt he’ll raise rates again this entire year. Open season on the Canadian dollar.

————————————

Yep.

If any increase from now on, it will be just a token increase.

His job is to hold rates down. At 1.25 % with inflation 8 % + yearly/increase in M2.

So your savings and income, including CPI indexed income disappears gradually with inflation.

It is called slowly boiling the frog.

I am sure all the European bondholders will get their Canadian mortgage backed security bonds paid in Euros, well we need slight increase in taxes for that with the weaker loonie and a larger deficit but that is just fine.

The herd is happy.

#230 Not as I do on 03.13.18 at 1:24 pm

“It will take a full six months of B20 to know the impact. Meanwhile the US Fed will boost its rate for a fifth time next week, and our guys will follow later in the spring.” – Garth

———————————————————

Ha, in 3 years time, the rate in Canada will probably be lower than today.

Then we will be in desperate shape. Careful what you wish for. – Garth

#231 april on 03.13.18 at 1:25 pm

#205 – If housing did peak in 2013 it looks like it took off again and people are asking a huge amount for their crappy condos in the last yr or so … don’t know if their getting their asking price??

#232 mark on 03.13.18 at 1:38 pm

http://time.com/money/3524487/retirement-bond-funds-avoid/

Why I don’t own bonds in my portfolio.

The article is about US Treasuries. Do not confuse government bonds with corporate bonds, high-yield bonds or provincial bonds and, of course, rate-reset preferreds which should constitute about half a fixed-income allocation. Oh yeah, and never take investment advice from the Internet. – Garth

#233 Stan Brooks on 03.13.18 at 1:40 pm

Here it is folks.

It won’t pass a 5th grader smell detector test.
But it works greatly in this place.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-degree-untapped-potential-remains-economy-141715527–business.html

from the article:

KINGSTON, Ontario (Reuters) – A degree of untapped potential remains in the Canadian labor market, meaning the economy may be able to generate more growth without higher inflation, the head of the Bank of Canada said on Tuesday, suggesting the central bank can take its time raising interest rates.

Reiterating that the central bank will not take a mechanical approach to rates that will likely be higher over time, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said policymakers cannot know in advance how far the capacity-building process can go but have an obligation to let it occur.

Note folks:
He is taking you for so stupid that he is pointing to the rising rates as a reason for inflation, not as a consequence of inflation/in order to keep currency stable.

So to recap:

Poloz’s view:
Lets lie about inflation, let’s say there is no inflation (despite yearly increase of 8 % of M2), due to uncertainties, blah blah blah, low CPI, etc. so no rate increases.
Let’s put some mambo jumbo about full capacity, slack and we are done here.

Real world:
Inflation of 8 % +
CPI at 1.5 %
people savings lost.
people pensions lost.
distorted economy, miss-allocation of capital, productivity dives.

And this is the killer.

The emphasis on the economy having more room to run without generating inflationary pressure gives it a dovish tone overall

This is not taking the herd for stupid.
This is outright insult to any intelligence left in the populace, however little it is.

An insult to the very definition of intelligence.

As an outcome the scheisse northern peso dives.
Check these grocery prices next week.

‘Deflation’ as Mark said.

#234 Not as I do on 03.13.18 at 1:43 pm

“Makes you wonder what bank handed over the money for this?” – Garth

—————————————————————-

A Canadian bank, I think. They have artfully offloaded the risk to the Canadian public. They reap all the reward.

#235 Stan Brooks on 03.13.18 at 1:47 pm

#229 Not as I do on 03.13.18 at 1:24 pm
“It will take a full six months of B20 to know the impact. Meanwhile the US Fed will boost its rate for a fifth time next week, and our guys will follow later in the spring.” – Garth

———————————————————

Ha, in 3 years time, the rate in Canada will probably be lower than today.

Then we will be in desperate shape. Careful what you wish for. – Garth

—————————
Not as I do,

It is a certainty, an inevitable outcome from bad policies.

The writing is on the wall. Recognize it, react and move on. Ignore it at your own peril.

#236 VanMan on 03.13.18 at 2:07 pm

#78 Boombust on 03.12.18 at 7:58 pm

#134 Dolce Vita on 03.12.18 at 10:24 pm

#137 Lillooet, BC on 03.12.18 at 10:27 pm

#157 TheDood on 03.12.18 at 11:49 pm

_____

Peoplekind,

I’m not a shill nor trolling realtor. I live and work in Vancouver in a professional career outside of real estate (one of the few). My perspective is based on assumption yes, but those assumptions stem from “boots on the ground” daily conversations with other Vancouverites in the office, at events, coffee shops, sporting events, etc.

It seems we’ve all been talking about this crash or bust or even haircut within the Lower Mainland for so long that it’s now become the boy who cried wolf syndrome. People here do not believe it is going to happen. At least not in my demographic (32-42). So many of us have asked ourselves who is buying this stuff, who has the money, who, who, who? Locally, we all know the taboo answer. And sure, I know of those that have leveraged everything to “get in the market” but honestly those are not the majority here. The condo market is being completely devastated by greedy developers and multi-unit buyers who purchase, list on Air-Bnb and make a fortune. Personally, I know of 3 people who own over 21 condos doing this very thing. Yes, the city is cracking down, yes stratas are restricting rentals and yes, Kim Jong Un is also going to give up his nukes. Who do you believe?

We’re told don’t believe the media when it talks of the phony real estate numbers, but why should we believe reports about the crackdown on airbnb, stratas, etc? Yes it happens and some cases make the news, but I live in a condo in downtown Vancouver and believe me – AirBnb is not going away!

I understand the potential implications of the B20 and all of the other measures put forth to stop this train wreck. But!, We’ve heard this all before and each time there was another loophole in the so-called plan to fix the problem. Vancouver is never going to be affordable again. Period! A Canadian crash may come and it likely will, but Vancouver will be spared for the most part except some outliers as there always is. True there are many that are in over their head, but there are so many more that are not. Anyone that had purchased real estate prior to 2017 will be just fine.

I’ve witnessed countless friends pack up and leave to go have families elsewhere. I know of several entrepreneurs who have left for Calgary, Saskatoon, Toronto and other cities to launch their startups. Everyone waited and waited for things to change, but they never did.

I’ve mentioned “world class” city in a previous post and had lots of negative comments – listen, by no means, do I think Vancouver is NY, LA, Tokyo, London, Paris, (by the way I’ve been to all), but Vancouver is more of an escape route, a getaway for the wealthy. It’s the cottage. The all-inclusive get away. Yes the city is a mess with real estate, but the beauty, safety, cleanliness, beaches, skiing, parks, hiking, etc. make it an attractive playground for the many that have the finances to afford to come vacation here, live here, buy here.

So if the day of reckoning ever does come, then yes there may be some problems, but there will be no major crash in Vancouver and I guarantee this city is not going back to levels of affordability that the average Canadian will ever be able to afford.

#237 Blacksheep on 03.13.18 at 2:11 pm

Stan # 233,

Does Canada have significant upward pressure on wages?

No… so what will poloz choose:

8% inflation for 10 years?

Or a national RE collapse and the accompanying GFC type recession the US experienced, but wacking Canada hard this time instead?

Today, we have his answer.

Don’t fight the system, watch what they do, not what they say.

#238 James on 03.13.18 at 2:27 pm

Hours after his boss, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, was ousted Steve Goldstein, the under secretary of public affairs at the State Department has been fired by the White House.
Goldstein publicly contradicted the White House account of how Tillerson was fired on Tuesday morning.
Goldstein said Tillerson was officially notified he’d been fired from a tweet from President Donald Trump on Tuesday morning, and in a statement, said Tillerson had “every intention of remaining.”
Talk about short careers in this administration. I guess nobody can disagree with the old 300 lb fat blob of $hit that acts like a spoiled schoolboy. The only advice Trump takes is from his porn-stars on what position would he like!

#239 PastThePeak on 03.13.18 at 2:32 pm

#217 Tony on 03.13.18 at 11:42 am
Anyone who thinks the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates this April better read Stephen Poloz’s comments today. I already know he won’t raise rates this April and doubt he’ll raise rates again this entire year. Open season on the Canadian dollar.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Not in April, but my money is on an increase in July. Despite what the dove Poloz wants, the BoC is not as independent of the Fed as he would like. Not raising at all sinks the CAD and too much of that ticks off the US govt as currency manipulation (re NAFTA negotiations) and also causes increase in Canadian inflation.

Rates will be at least 50 basis points higher by end 2018 or early 2019.

Now, it may also be the case that rates will be lower in 2-3 years as a recession hits, but that will be when Canada’s reckoning hits, the debt bubble really bursts, and lower rates won’t save housing then…

#240 What Crash!? on 03.13.18 at 2:33 pm

I don’t know anywhere else but houses in my hood has been selling way over-asking. It seems like 2016 all over again.
Listed 998K-Sold 1.38
https://mongohouse.com/soldrecords/5a9f785f4df2c472753c97a5
Listed 899K-Sold 1.26

That’s why aggressive realtors list houses below-market in a low-listings environment. Works every time. – Garth

#241 Stan Brooks on 03.13.18 at 2:34 pm

“Even I don’t know when interest rates may go up again, and that’s because we are truly dependent on the data as they evolve.”

Poloz is looking at the wrong data.

Although the labor market has become healthier over the past year, there is still some slack,

told you about the slack

Increased investment by existing and new companies and more jobs turnover should create more supply in the economy through higher productivity and employment, he said.

If he relieve believes that, the investment, productivity part, then we are doomed.

The one eyed leading the blind.

#242 Stan Brooks on 03.13.18 at 2:47 pm

#237 Blacksheep on 03.13.18 at 2:11 pm
Stan # 233,

Does Canada have significant upward pressure on wages?

No… so what will poloz choose:

8% inflation for 10 years?

Or a national RE collapse and the accompanying GFC type recession the US experienced, but wacking Canada hard this time instead?

Today, we have his answer.

Don’t fight the system, watch what they do, not what they say.

——————————–

Yes, Severe stagflation.

Imagine the ugliness of that:
Steady inflation but no rates increases, 8 % inflation for 10 years with no rate increases equals to 116 % inflation.

I bet on no wage increases at all or on light, very little increases.

So from making 100 k you go to 45-50 k before taxes in real goods and services. Fantastic outlook.

And the beauty of it is that your increases however meager they will be, will be taxed at the marginal upper tax bracket, so 50, soon 60 % of it will be gone.

#243 For those about to flop... on 03.13.18 at 2:51 pm

Vancouver realtors are selling houses and condominiums for a loss to their clients ,but say that everything is fine.

Watch what they do ,not what they say…

M43BC

#244 Gravy Train on 03.13.18 at 3:05 pm

#195 Johnnyboy on 03.13.18 at 9:14 am
“Trump is sleazy and not bright but dumb not quite sure on this.”

All your points are well taken. I just meant that Trump is a philistine (rather than an intellectual); he knows nothing of American history, its heritage, traditions, laws, customs, culture, and so on; and he despises facts, truth, science and scientists. In a word, Trump’s a boob! Much like Smoking Man! :)

#245 Howard on 03.13.18 at 3:06 pm

Re: Poloz’s comments today.

All I can say is, I’m glad I get paid in Euros.

EUR to CAD exchange rate now at 1.60. Hopefully it’ll be near 2.00 in time for my next visit to Canuckistan in the fall.

#246 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.13.18 at 3:06 pm

MF, if you thought 2008 was a recession in Canada, you haven’t seen a real recession yet. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but 2017 was about as good as it ever gets. It’s all downhill from here.

You don’t believe me of course. You believe in some mythical past where everyone had a job and lots of money and bought cheap houses on a whim, then got rich because their houses went up. That world you describe resembles nothing most of us have ever seen before. I can only assume that you harbour that belief because it is necessary for you to justify your victim mentality.

The commenter “Lisa” seems to get it. Younger generations cannot be faulted for not experiencing the things they just haven’t experienced. So the fact that you’ve never seen a real recession or high interest rates or chronic multi-year joblessness is certainly not your fault.

But inventing some phoney history where everybody got rich and had it easy? That’s your fault. Don’t take it upon yourself to tell us how good we had it. You weren’t there. For the vast majority of us, it wasn’t anything like you say.

#247 Boombust on 03.13.18 at 3:07 pm

#236 Vanman

You must be shimmying with the wrong crowd out there.

The fact is, the market WILL crash and, it has already begun.

So, get ready.

#248 VanMan on 03.13.18 at 3:25 pm

#247 Boombust on 03.13.18 at 3:07 pm
#236 Vanman

You must be shimmying with the wrong crowd out there.

The fact is, the market WILL crash and, it has already begun.

So, get ready.

______

Define crash. And does your certainty include Vancouver or are you referring to the rest of Canada?

#249 young & foolish on 03.13.18 at 3:40 pm

“EUR to CAD exchange rate now at 1.60.”

Incredible, isn’t it? Our Dollar continues to slide, but as Stan points out, inflation continues to grow.

As some 80′ musician cried: “Your cash ain’t nuthin’ but trash”

#250 Big Kahuna on 03.13.18 at 3:53 pm

Breaking News from CNN-TRUMP CURES CANCER https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trd7cupDvUI

#251 For those about to flop... on 03.13.18 at 3:55 pm

pm
#247 Boombust on 03.13.18 at 3:07 pm
#236 Vanman

You must be shimmying with the wrong crowd out there.

The fact is, the market WILL crash and, it has already begun.

So, get ready.

______

Define crash. And does your certainty include Vancouver or are you referring to the rest of Canada?

//////////////////

Probably depends who you ask.

I have shown people losing 40k on condos…to them it is probably a cooling.

I have shown people losing 90k on condos…to them it is probably a correction.

I have shown people losing over 500k on condos….to them it is probably a crash…

M43BC

#252 Boombust on 03.13.18 at 3:59 pm

#248 Vanman

I would define a crash as 60-80% off.

We are well on our way there, too.

You seem to be ignorant to the fact that SFD prices (in particular) are now off considerably; your buying dollars now buys you a new, bigger, nicer and better-located home with the SAME money that would have been spent to buy a crack shack during the Spring, 2016 peak here in Vancouver. That is how price drops are initially “masked” in any correction.

As for condos? Forget it; they are and will continue to be a dime a dozen and they will suffer the biggest declines of all In fact, you would have been hard-pressed to break even on one just a few short years ago.

There is absolutely no “upside” left in this market and as GT says, once the average person starts to really sit up and take notice of what is really going on out there (sooner rather than later) RE will be considered “toxic” and will be shunned for a very long time.

The only reason this mess has gone on so long is because of cheap interest rates; now that they are rising and, with B-20 now in place, watch out below.

The Feds, the BoC, the CMHC etc. atr mow out of options to goose RE as they did back in 2008-2009. This is all the more reason why this current correction will be 2x as bad as otherwise might have been the case back then IF we had taken the medicine the same way the US, the UK, Spain, Ireland and every other bubble locale did.

#253 Penny Henny on 03.13.18 at 4:06 pm

March 9th, 2018, Niagara – The Niagara Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reported 463 property sales processed through the NAR
Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) system in February. This represents a 33.19% decrease in sales compared to February of last year.
The residential average sale price of $392,875 was 6.72% higher than last February.

https://www.niagararealtor.ca/sites/default/files/Statistics%20-%20February%202018.pdf

#254 RE_Investor on 03.13.18 at 4:18 pm

#236 VanMan on 03.13.18 at 2:07 pm:
I’m not a shill nor trolling realtor.

….No need to prep your comments for the bears here.

I was born and raised in Van, but left in 1989 for the GTA. Assignment sales were really taking off then in Van. It was crazy back then as well as now. Govt didn’t stop it back then. The GTA was my best option for work and Real Estate, although today, I have to look hard to find a property that the numbers work. I totally agree with your comment:…there will be no major crash in Vancouver.

#255 SimplyPut7 on 03.13.18 at 4:21 pm

#215 Victor V on 03.13.18 at 11:34 am

Well now that the speculators and flippers finally realize they were playing musical chairs with themselves, they are shocked that buyers looking for a primary residence are not interested (or unable to under B20) in buying homes that are 10x to 15x their gross household income.

For nearly $2,000,000 I would hope not to be this close to my neighbours:

https://photos.zolo.ca/52-hurst-avenue-vaughan-N4053508-17.jpg?2018-02-28+15%3A47%3A00

https://photos.zolo.ca/0-nave-street-vaughan-N4047703-1.jpg?2018-02-22+13%3A15%3A58

#256 Ben on 03.13.18 at 4:22 pm

I own my own home in Vancouver West but otherwise, rest of my money is in stocks.

What I’ve noticed is that the detached market has completely died. Nothing is selling above 1.5-2.0m. In my parents hood, huge 45 lots with relatively new builds are not selling. This is because locals are finding it increasingly to move up, even with the equity built up in their homes. Case in point, your home is worth 1.5m. Even with mortgage paid off (let’s say you bought for 700k 8 years ago), a bigger house in your same hood is asking 3 million. That means you have to take out a 1.5m dollar mortgage. Unless your income has gone way up in the intervening years, even with a 50% downpayment, very few banks will foot a 1.5m dollar mortgage, especially with B20.

What is selling are units or homes priced around 1-1.5m because I think this is all locals can afford. Chinese money has completely dried up. Out in Abbotsford, you have detached now going for over a million whereas East Van, we are seeing 45 lots detached semi-new homes (within 20 years old) pricing at around 1.8m (that are still not selling). Because volumes are so low, it’s so hard to accurately price a home.

#257 No Condos please were british on 03.13.18 at 4:24 pm

#252 Boombust on 03.13.18 at 3:59 pm

#248 Vanman

I would define a crash as 60-80% off.

We are well on our way there, too.

You seem to be ignorant to the fact that SFD prices (in particular) are now off considerably; your buying dollars now buys you a new, bigger, nicer and better-located home with the SAME money that would have been spent to buy a crack shack during the Spring, 2016 peak here in Vancouver. That is how price drops are initially “masked” in any correction.

As for condos? Forget it; they are and will continue to be a dime a dozen and they will suffer the biggest declines of all In fact, you would have been hard-pressed to break even on one just a few short years ago.

There is absolutely no “upside” left in this market and as GT says, once the average person starts to really sit up and take notice of what is really going on out there (sooner rather than later) RE will be considered “toxic” and will be shunned for a very long time.

The only reason this mess has gone on so long is because of cheap interest rates; now that they are rising and, with B-20 now in place, watch out below.

The Feds, the BoC, the CMHC etc. atr mow out of options to goose RE as they did back in 2008-2009. This is all the more reason why this current correction will be 2x as bad as otherwise might have been the case back then IF we had taken the medicine the same way the US, the UK, Spain, Ireland and every other bubble locale did.
______________________________________
Condos are a pile of dog poop. Wait until the roof goes, the elevator, the exterior walls, the windows, the parking garage, the garage deck…………………..

#258 Ben on 03.13.18 at 4:31 pm

#252 Boombust

A crash in real estate is far less than 60-80%. The reason is most people still have a mortgage. Those who bought with 10% down, if prices go down 10% from when they bought, they are down 100%. A drop of 20-30% is enough to wipe out the equity for a lot of folks who bought in the last 5 years.

With stocks, unless you buy on margin, a drop of 10%-50% doesn’t faze me, because I will never own anyone any money. And if you buy the index, it will always bounce back. If it doesn’t we are all doomed anyway and you should hoarse material things.

#259 TheDood on 03.13.18 at 4:38 pm

#236 VanMan on 03.13.18 at 2:07 pm

“….there will be no major crash in Vancouver and I guarantee this city is not going back to levels of affordability that the average Canadian will ever be able to afford.”

Maybe you’re right. But this time around things feel a little different. Household debt across Canada, ESPECIALLY in YVR and Lower Mainland, makes it different. Rates are gonna rise, B20 is going to kick in and these 2 factors are going to push majority of those who bought 2014-2017 over a fiscal cliff. Canadian household debt numbers support this theory. There are too many people in this part of the country living a hollywood lifestyle on low-mid range salaries thanks to credit cards and helocs. B20 is already biting the market. A couple more rate hikes will ensure the poop hits the fan. Anyone overextended (how many??? I would guess a pretty big number) will be forced to sell and will find very few with the means to buy, forcing properties into lower and lower price territory.

If recession hits, well then we’re heading into a ball of fire. Imagine a scenario where the mortgage comes up for renewal 2, 3 or 4 points higher, cards are maxed, large heloc is still outstanding, AND one or both household earners no longer earn a paycheque.

#260 Mark on 03.13.18 at 4:43 pm

“Vancouver realtors are selling houses and condominiums for a loss to their clients ,but say that everything is fine.”

Really? That’d be actually a pretty rare situation as prices have been pretty stagnant over the past few years. Maybe losses on a few one-offs that were purchased blatantly above market value, or a few wrecks, but Vancouver homeowners have mostly neither gained or lost since the 2013 apex.

The real killer these days is that the appraisals aren’t coming in higher than 2013 (peak) levels, so the HELOCs and mortgages can’t be renewed at higher levels to support a lifestyle or to support negative-earning RE.

#261 MF on 03.13.18 at 4:46 pm

46 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.13.18 at 3:06 pm

Did you even read my post?

Seriously did you read it?

I explained the lack of fear of debt. That’s it.

What you are saying? I don’t know or care about.

MF

#262 espressobob on 03.13.18 at 5:05 pm

13 Rebecca is even worse. That’s the one on the left. Scary.

The pictures above make this trio look good. Seeing it for yourself would leave most in a state of shock.

#263 IKnow on 03.13.18 at 8:35 pm

#82 Ace Goodheart on 03.12.18 at 8:07 pm
I can’t believe someone bought that. I was seriously just kidding when I wrote I thought it was fixable. More than 1/2 a million dollars for that?

People in Toronto are soooooo dumb

————-

Would be $2M in Hongkong in a suburb

#264 IKnow on 03.13.18 at 8:37 pm

#260 Mark on 03.13.18 at 4:43 pm

2013 apex

———–

Thickest skin award