Monte Carlo 1913

DOUG By Guest Blogger Doug Rowat

In a few short weeks, the current US economic expansionary period will move into a tie for second all-time in terms of length at 106 months. And, if the pattern holds, the current economic expansion could become the longest ever, toppling the 120-month record set from March 1991 to March 2001.

However, many market participants argue that the US’s luck is about to run out because such a winning streak is simply unsustainable. After all, it’s already almost the second-longest ever—beating 32 other expansionary cycles dating all the way back to the 1850s. It just simply can’t last.

US Business Cycle Expansions: Present Cycle Soon to be The Second Longest Ever

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research. Labels indicate peak month and year of the expansionary cycle.

Such thinking reminded me of a group of gamblers who famously lost millions at a high-end Monte Carlo casino back in 1913. These folks were rich. To paraphrase John Lennon, they didn’t clap, they rattled their jewelry. They had money to burn and a certain streak of results at one of the roulette tables started to catch their eye. A commotion began when the wheel hit black a dozen times in a row. Bets began to pile up on red because the streak was, of course, now certain to end. Unfortunately for these well-heeled gamblers, the streak continued and ultimately black was hit a stunning total of 26 consecutive times. I’ve read that the odds of this occurring are approximately 137 million to 1.

The thinking behind their betting was straightforward and tied to basic human nature: “It HAS to be red next time.” Unfortunately, what these gamblers failed to realize is that every spin of the wheel has to be assessed individually and that the odds of each spin carried an identical probability: 50/50. The principle of EXPECTED value was forgotten and an incorrect emphasis was placed on the historical ‘streak’, which actually had no bearing on the probability of the next spin.

Similarly in investing, it’s usually a poor decision to adopt a my-luck-is-bound-to-change strategy. I’ve argued before on this blog that it’s a mistake to isolate ‘streaks’ as a determinant of the next outcome: “Markets have done well, time to sell.” This is not a defensible decision.

Each economic expansionary period must be evaluated individually on its own merits and evidence must be gathered to determine whether or not it might end. You might argue, for instance, that the US deficit is massive, the current president unpredictable, particularly with trade policy, or that rising interest rates will blunt corporate profit growth as reasons to declare that the current economic expansion will soon end. I might counter-argue that US leading economic indicators are still favourable, the US labour market strong and that corporate profitability should remain robust because of last year’s Republican tax reform.

Either argument has its merits. However, if one simply concludes that “the good times have gone on too long”, all that’s been made is an emotional decision similar to the ones made by the Monte Carlo gamblers.

Weigh the evidence from both sides and decide for yourself, but recognize that it should be this evidence alone that determines how you invest going forward rather than simply the historical duration of past economic cycles—Particularly when there is such a disparate range between their lengths (as little as 10 months to as much as 120 months). Just as a ball landing on black a spin prior doesn’t affect the probability of red on the next spin, so too the length of the economic expansion in 1861 has no bearing on the length of our current expansion. The likelihood of this economic expansion ending isn’t increased or decreased by the length of the expansions that have come before it.

Another factor to remember with the Monte Carlo Fallacy, as it’s now been dubbed, is that while true probabilities are determined over millions and millions of theoretical spins of the roulette wheel, there will always be small groupings of results that don’t reflect the overall odds. For example, there will be periods where black is hit 10, 20 or, in the case of Monte Carlo, 26 times in a row. But there will also, overall, be an equal number of these grouped periods that land on red. Understanding that the distribution of results will be uneven is what confirms the possibility that the current US expansion could go on much longer.

In sum, focus on the evidence suggesting that the current economic environment might change, not on the length of the winning streak that’s proceeded it. Remembering this might allow you to have a little more jewelry to rattle after your next casino night.

Doug Rowat, FCSI® is Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments and Senior Vice President, Private Client Group, Raymond James Ltd.

 

143 comments ↓

#1 Flamen Lupanares on 03.10.18 at 2:40 pm

“Unfortunately, what these gamblers failed to realize is that every spin of the wheel has to be assessed individually and that the odds of each spin carried an identical probability: 50/50”

Typical for well-heeled-well-educated-rabble-avoiding-life-experience-lacking individuals. Failing to understand the dice is loaded is what parts fools with their money. Let me rephrase: lacking common sense is deadly.

#2 Newcomer on 03.10.18 at 3:06 pm

Roulette is random. In theory, the economy is not.

Doug, is there any merit to the argument that posits that expanding economies inherently create inefficiencies, misallocations and other problems such as bad debt, and as such shift fundamentals so as to favor contractions. If this is true, with each passing month of an expansion there should be more reasons to expect a contraction and so a contraction at 106 months would be fundamentally more likely than a contraction at, say 56 months.

#3 For those about to flop... on 03.10.18 at 3:16 pm

Weekend Rewind.

This week in howmuch articles.

Only two articles this week,slackers…

M43BC

Visualizing the World’s Most Admired Companies.

https://howmuch.net/articles/world-most-admired-companies-2018

Meet the Wealthiest People in Crypto.

https://howmuch.net/articles/the-richest-people-in-cryptocurrency

#4 Monaco on 03.10.18 at 3:20 pm

I know someone who lives there as just sent him an email. He just bought an RS6+ getting 735 HP because his Rolls was had to park it here and there. He declares it as his principal residence for tax purposes, but he really lives elsewhere in a newly purchased mansion in the south of Spain.

#5 Capt. Serious on 03.10.18 at 3:21 pm

The current S&P500 P/E ratio is 26. By any measure stocks are looking quite expensive regardless of the economic outlook. And it’s not just the FANG stocks driving it, pretty much everything is expensive. The Shiller PE10 looks even worse. Worrying. Not bailing out, but the good times are over and expected returns are low from here. Following your analogy, everyone keeps betting on black right now. If everyone started betting red, prices would actually be declining in the equity market.

#6 tccontrarian on 03.10.18 at 3:47 pm

As per one of the greatest investors of all time, Stanley Druckenmiller:
“Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.”

Currently, the Fed is not only removing liquidity, but according to Kansas City Fed President, Esther George, they are considering doing so at an even faster rate in the future.
This has serious implications for asset prices going forward. Ignore them at your peril Doug R.

TCC

#7 waiting on the westcoast on 03.10.18 at 3:48 pm

Doug – given the evidence you see, what is your prediction?

I think Canada is going to slide back in late 2018 / early 2019. The US I am less certain on. There may be up to 2 years left… Depends how quickly interest rates hit the economy.

#8 Smoking Man on 03.10.18 at 3:52 pm

Turmoil at PC leadership convention. Ford must have won. Now the delays.

#9 Figmund Sreud on 03.10.18 at 4:04 pm

…focus on the evidence suggesting that the current economic environment might change, not on the length of the winning streak that’s proceeded it.
_____________________________

Yes. Easier said than done.

Anyway, … what’s being promoted more and more, as a result these days, has been to simply manage the money to lose some when the market goes down, … and manage it to gain some when the market goes up.

Passive investing (market-weighted indexing) anyone?

Best,

F.S. – Comox, BC. ( … spring is here! )

#10 Mark on 03.10.18 at 4:10 pm

The problem with US GDP and measuring the economy by GDP is that a lot of the GDP is in activity that isn’t exactly productive or even useful.

For instance, Google is paid billions to display a bunch of ads. Nearly everyone just scrolls past them (or blocks them — amazing how much faster a computer is with such blocked!), and most clicks are either fake or come from click farms. Billions are expended on such ‘ads’, but there is little corresponding useful economic output.

Extend such unproductive activity across the financial and healthcare sector (where the amount of administrative overhead is stupendously high), and while you might have a high GDP, high “productivity” economy, in reality, average true standards of living are falling as such ‘productivity’ doesn’t amount to a hill of beans.

The real proof is in the trade deficits hitting record levels despite the so-called booming economy. And the lack of wage growth despite the economy allegedly being a ‘full employment’.

The US economy gets away with this for the time being as the USD$ is still viewed globally as a useful reserve asset, but the situation becomes increasingly precarious with each passing day.

#11 Smartalox on 03.10.18 at 4:11 pm

Silly Gamblers!

Wesley Snipes said it best: ‘Always bet on BLACK’

Of course, if you don’t pay tax on your winnings, you may have trouble with the authorities.

#12 Smoking Man on 03.10.18 at 4:45 pm

And the winner is Doug Ford. UCC told me. Yeah Baby.

And now time to Make Ontario Great Again and insane Libralism extinct…

#13 BC Concerned on 03.10.18 at 4:45 pm

An offtoppic:
This is outrageous
BC woman gets 4.5 years in jail for teaching people how to evade taxes over $120K ??? 4.5 years in jail!? Hope someone of the blog dogs can look into this and perhaps help
http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-woman-jailed-teaching-poeple-evade-taxes

#14 dakkie on 03.10.18 at 4:57 pm

DELETED

#15 crossbordershopper on 03.10.18 at 4:59 pm

record long expansion and i only see poverty, not wealth. people living paycheck to paycheck looking in the going bad section at the grocery store.
this game is for millionaires just like always, markets go up markets go down, little people always have nothing, hand to mouth, just to get by. thats it. always has been always will be

#16 Smoking Man on 03.10.18 at 5:00 pm

Even with Soros money Mulroney finishes dead last.
This is so good?

Congrats Dougeee

I might even come back to Canada Now

#17 MF on 03.10.18 at 5:06 pm

March 1991 to March 2001: Complete US military and economic hegemony worldwide. Fall of the USSR, Gulf war #1 removes the ghosts of Vietnam. Near 100% confidence and optimism. Jobs easier to come by. Benefits from companies. House prices still earthly. Stocks soar.

VS

Current economic climate: huge debt worldwide, artificially low interest rates, QE, stock buybacks, cooked public and private statistics, destructive and rampant liberalism/socialism/self hatred, pessimism, skepticism and cynicism of financial markets/banks, stagnant wages, hidden inflation, house prices out of control….oh yeah and a teeny tiny amount of “corporate profits”.

See the difference? The current “bull” market is based on fluff.

MF

#18 millmech on 03.10.18 at 5:28 pm

#14 CBS
What you see is people who have spent all their earnings trying to look wealthy. The truly wealthy look no different from anyone else, you know the statement for being wealthy is “same house, same car ,same wife”.
You look now for most people its a new house every five years(usually bigger & more expensive), new car every five years(paying for depreciation),new iphones every year or two for each member of the family, everybody needs a TV and computer in their room. Add to this a yearly family vacation to relax and you wonder why people are poorer.
These people you see are actually making “poor” decisions.

#19 House Hunting on 03.10.18 at 5:29 pm

Checked out 2 houses recently that are for sale. $950k for a small bungalow in Etobicoke with a single attached garage on a small lot in a not so spectacular neighborhood to put it politely. In Cheektowoga NY (an eastern suburb of Buffalo with a population of 90k) checked out a larger 3 bedroom ranch bungalow with attached double car garage in a nice area on a large lot, price $160,000 USD (thats $205k Cdn) . When the Canadian housing correction starts somone let me know because I’ll be renting until then.

#20 Doug Rowat on 03.10.18 at 5:35 pm

#5 Capt. Serious on 03.10.18 at 3:21 pm

Following your analogy, everyone keeps betting on black right now. If everyone started betting red, prices would actually be declining in the equity market.

Not quite my analogy. The betting actually doesn’t influence the outcome of the roulette wheel spins. The wheel results are independent.

–Doug

#21 For those about to flop... on 03.10.18 at 5:35 pm

I wrote the below post on this blog on February 21st 2018,read it and then read the new Thinkpol article…

M43BC

https://thinkpol.ca/2018/03/10/vancouver-houses-sold-assessed-value-february/

///////////////////////////

Recent Sale Report.

This Westside house just sold.

2115 w18th ave,Vancouver.

Asking 3.78

Just sold for 3.39

2017 Tax Assessment 4.49

And so even though it went well below ask ,I guess the big story with this one is it sold 1.1 million or 24.5% below the recommended retail price…

M43BC

2017-12-12 : $3,788,000

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2115-w-18th-avenue

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Feel free to make a donation.

Flop For Fox Fund…

http://www.terryfox.org/get-involved/ways-to-give/

#22 domain on 03.10.18 at 5:42 pm

Doug,

Not all ends of market bubbles have been preceded by evidence that the average person can monitor, and in some cases even the ‘experts’ are caught by surprise.

Missing out on gains is arguably less disastrous than being hit by portfolio cratering crash. A lot depends on where someone is at in their personal timeline in relation to the time required to recover from a mistake.

After this next crash arrives in the next 18 months (according to Zoltar), I would like to see how you guys hold up, and then maybe seek your services.

Good luck and stay vigilant.

#23 Doug Rowat on 03.10.18 at 5:43 pm

#2 Newcomer on 03.10.18 at 3:06 pm

…with each passing month of an expansion there should be more reasons to expect a contraction and so a contraction at 106 months would be fundamentally more likely than a contraction at, say 56 months.

I know of no data to support this. The fact that US economic expansions range so widely in length suggests that each one is very much different from the others and should be assessed independently.

Naturally, looking for similarities between past expansions is fair game, but my memory of the expansion of 1887 is pretty fuzzy.

–Doug

#24 tccontrarian on 03.10.18 at 5:50 pm

#17 MF on 03.10.18 at 5:06 pm

“The current “bull” market is based on fluff.”
———————————————————–

We C I 2 I :)

TCC

#25 Doug Rowat on 03.10.18 at 5:52 pm

#6 tccontrarian on 03.10.18 at 3:47 pm

As per one of the greatest investors of all time, Stanley Druckenmiller:
“Earnings don’t move the overall market; it’s the Federal Reserve Board… focus on the central banks and focus on the movement of liquidity… most people in the market are looking for earnings and conventional measures. It’s liquidity that moves markets.”

Currently, the Fed is not only removing liquidity, but according to Kansas City Fed President, Esther George, they are considering doing so at an even faster rate in the future.
This has serious implications for asset prices going forward. Ignore them at your peril Doug R.

Earnings do move the market and we don’t ignore the central banks, particularly the Fed.

–Doug

#26 Roadrunner12 on 03.10.18 at 5:53 pm

The current economic expansion is powered by debt on steroids. Every where you look, there is debt out the yin yang and it is global enabled by central bank policies.

Holding a minimum 10% gold portfolio definitely looks prudent from this corner. The coming recession is definitely going to have more of a depression feeling when it unravels.

#27 Wog on 03.10.18 at 6:00 pm

Is there any way to assess a risk/reward value to the pros and cons of the current economic outlook? ie. rising interest rates in 2018 are twice as important to consider as tax reform; then apply these values to your decision making?

#28 Today's Blog on 03.10.18 at 6:02 pm

Is a great reminder ;

Turn down the noise and invest passively regularly

Stock Pickers, etf ‘tactically ‘balanced money manager are all noise . Over an extended period of time they do not beat the market

All noise

#29 espressobob on 03.10.18 at 6:04 pm

I actually agree with Doug on this one. Fear of the unknown.

There are no guarantees.

Good case for diversification and balance in ones portfolio. Don’t forget to rebalance periodically.

#30 Andrew Woburn on 03.10.18 at 6:06 pm

NEVER GIVE UP on 03.10.18 at 6:23 am
#83 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.18 at 9:47 pm
No you can’t. Think about that next time you want to whine about your oh, so awful life in Canada.
=================================
A few years ago there was news about how our CBSA border guards were too afraid to confront our port workers who are some 80% with criminal records.
They are told what container not to check.
We do not have control as yet.
=========================

Agreed. The situation at Vancouver is a mystery to me.

A few years ago, the Port police were disbanded and their role taken over by Vancouver cops, you know the ones who can’t respond to anything much short of violent assaults. I’m sure city cops were thrilled and decided it was a wonderful opportunity to give their full attention to give criminal activity at Canada’s largest port. Whoever quietly made that decision was obviously thinking only of efficiency and the public good.

At one time, if not still, Vancouver organized crime had a standing offer to container haulers. They could earn a healthy fee for standing by while a container coming off the docks would be switched en route to customs for another with the same markings and serial numbers. I have personal knowledge of this.

The docks here are controlled by the longshoremen. There is apparently no reason that there can’t be more than one union in a port. However not even the Teamsters, powerful as they are and connected to entirely the wrong sort of people, can get a look in. I had that from a Teamsters official.

Longshoremen can earn $100K p.a. for holding a clipboard, $150K plus for operating a crane. I have no idea how they have so much clout with government but the whole thing smells worse than an Asian fish market.

#31 Tony on 03.10.18 at 6:11 pm

Since they’ve been lying about everything or almost everything since 2009 the fake or fictitious expansion could go on for at least several thousand years more. In the meantime stores will continue to close wholesale and more people will be living on the sidewalks.

#32 Asiakid on 03.10.18 at 6:46 pm

You must be joking, right?
Comparing roulette to the stock market is borderline irresponsible.

A dice roll or roulette spin is, yes, independent. But the stock market is not. It is driven by human emotion and interpretation. This is why the market stutters at psychological numbers etc. The dice doesn’t hesitate at each roll when it realizes it’s on a long streak. Similarly even if the dice roller hesitates the odds of each side is still distinctly the same.

On the day the market hits a new high, do you think the odds of enfing above and below the line are the same as another day before it? I don’t believe so as people take risks off the table.

If odds/value are truly independent in a stock market the pe of every stock would likely remain unchanged regardless of the status of the economy (if you try to argue to the opposite, I would suggest considering the Monte hall 3 doors problem since no sane person would expect a perfect economy forever).

I get what you are trying to imply but anyone that knows decent math would think that’s ridiculous. And anyone who doesn’t might actually believe you without thinking through the difference.

#33 Westcdn on 03.10.18 at 6:53 pm

If only life was probabilistic outcome of doing the same thing over and over again while waiting for a grey lizard overlord to reward a faithful drone. Hell, a government policy will do. When I think of socialist policies, I think of a w(h)ine press. If you keep raising the floor and lock the ceiling, we eventually get squished like grapes. It takes many grapes to make a bottle of wine for someone.

We could use wage inflation for the plebs. I think the late silents and early boomers got a leg up on everyone else from high inflation in the late 60’s and 70’s because their debts deflated rapidly in relation to income. Money was tight and it was hard to add to add more debt. Some did lose everything and more had it tough for a short time. When interest rates fell, their debts were easily paid and cheap credit expansion began. Real estate prices soared. This group made out like bandits as those that followed tried to emulate. Now, the only way I see to quickly deflate debt is through default. That would be very ugly for most people. Despite rising FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), I favour the probability of good 2018 in the stock market, not so much in real estate or bonds.

My experiment of going without a working furnace and using a gas fireplace insert with a few electrical space heaters worked out to my benefit thanks to a smallish house. It was not a lot of dollars but was a surprise to me. I estimate about a 10% – 20% saving on my energy bill. The fixed charges for kilowatt hours are proportionally much less Gigajoules and carbon tax only applies to gas consumption. Installing a boiler heating system or an efficient stove may be the way to go.

Another side note. I prefer to pay income tax when I file my return. Last year I underestimated my taxes owned and went over the $3,000 limit by $100. So I got $7,500 quarterly installment notices – idiots, in their public servant dreams.

#34 Rick on 03.10.18 at 7:05 pm

“Unfortunately, what these gamblers failed to realize is that every spin of the wheel has to be assessed individually and that the odds of each spin carried an identical probability: 50/50”.

Sorry it’s not 50, 50. You forgot 0 and 00 which are green.

#35 I'm plotting on 03.10.18 at 7:13 pm

Ryan, if you graph that data from the chart in your article but as months as a function of year, a slight trend emerges from the noise – expansions on average last three as long now compared to pre-WW2. Hardly a surprise the nature of economies has changed over 170 years.

#36 For those about to flop... on 03.10.18 at 7:27 pm

Hey Robax, this is gambling Vancouver style.

What we do is put 15.5m on the table for a near 100 year old house.

We then list it for 21.8 million hoping some successful business-peoplekind come in and help our bet pay off.

We then lower it to 18.8 then 17.8 then 17.5 ,hoping to still make a profit on the gamble.

It can’t be too much longer after opportunities lost that they can’t possibly win this bet.

Not too sure how much the previous owner paid but they walked away with a massive 15.5m.

These guys appear to have taken it one step too far.

The house always wins…

M43BC

3241 Point Grey Rd. Paid 15.5m August 2015 asking 17.5m.

2017-02-05 : $21,800,000
2017-04-06 : $18,800,000
2017-10-05 : $17,800,000
2018-02-01 : $17,500,000

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDAwMDVFUw==

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/3241-point-grey-road

#37 Purdy on 03.10.18 at 7:36 pm

Is there no painting of dogs playing roulette? or just use the Dogs playing poker? Garth, keep your boys in line.

#38 Reynolds531 on 03.10.18 at 7:36 pm

So Doug Ford. Is this good or what?

#39 Martin9999 on 03.10.18 at 7:39 pm

Besides the point made:

The longest recorded streak of one color in roulette in American casino history happened in 1943 when the color red won 32 consecutive times. In a row. The people convinced black had to hit next were absolutely right. Eventually.

#40 Mark on 03.10.18 at 7:47 pm

“You mean demand for CAD from broken people with debt who have nothing?

I see no demand for it.”

Canadians have plenty of assets and their labour which will be converted into repaying the consumer debt. This is profoundly deflationary as debt repayment will likely be largely the result of a reduction in discretionary spending on imported goods. Expanding credit spreads will force Canadian consumers into significant debt repayment. A deflationary spiral, where a rising currency and falling consumer prices can be incredibly self-reinforcing.

“What if top markets (with majority of the high ration loans) like GTA and Vancouver decline by 60-70 % (not unrealistic considering valuations), would that generate 70 billion of losses?”

Given that the Canadian loan book has very low term to maturity/duration, the banks can liquidate those loans relatively quickly before they go underwater. Unless of course the collapse is so sudden that you get 70-80% off immediately, which seems completely implausible given that there is no significant physical surplus of supply.

Its possible, but given that the CMHC subprime mortgage insurance program would completely and utterly implode, I am sure the Bank of Canada would be keen to calibrate its interest rate policy to keep the Canadian economy adequately liquid instead of letting it systemically collapse.

If a situation were to develop for which the banks were systemically constrained in their lending, that would be hyperdeflationary. As it was in the USA circa 2008-2009.

“Mark timed it perfectly. He sold his imaginary house at the imaginary peak of 2013, then put his imaginary money in imaginary investments that have benefited from imaginary deflation. He’s on the ball, that guy!”

A seller of Canadian RE at the peak in 2013 and a re-investor in the TSX is pretty much even with the TSX over the same interval — returns being basically the imputed rent, or the dividend return of the TSX.

However, the experience of the 1990s was that the TSE/TSX eventually outperformed to the tune of 300-400% of the housing market. In other words, a 25% downpayment invested in a TSE/TSX index fund at the time was convertible into full cash ownership of a house within the decade.

Given that today a typical downpayment is closer to 10%, and that the ratios are more extreme in favour of the housing market than they were in the 1990s, 700-800% outperformance of the stock market relative to the housing market is certainly a plausible proposition as the other side of the housing/stock market cycle exposes itself.

#41 -=jwk=- on 03.10.18 at 7:58 pm

record long expansion and i only see poverty, not wealth. people living paycheck to paycheck looking in the going bad section at the grocery store.
this game is for millionaires just like always, markets go up markets go down, little people always have nothing, hand to mouth, just to get by. thats it. always has been always will be

That’s not what I see.

For success, attitude is equally as important as ability – Walter scott

#42 Smoking Man on 03.10.18 at 8:00 pm

Next to Impossible to get rich without serious gambling.

Only other way is to be friends with liberals and democrats. Risk free riches.

I would rather Die…take my chances at craps and forex than be associated to criminals.

It’s how you play the game. With integrity or being a scum bag.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

Typing live from San Manual Casino by big bear mountain in California.

#43 Doug Rowat on 03.10.18 at 8:03 pm

#32 Asiakid on 03.10.18 at 6:46 pm

You must be joking, right?

Comparing roulette to the stock market is borderline irresponsible.

On the day the market hits a new high, do you think the odds of enfing above and below the line are the same as another day before it?

I get what you are trying to imply but anyone that knows decent math would think that’s ridiculous. And anyone who doesn’t might actually believe you without thinking through the difference.

Not utterly irresponsible? Completely irresponsible? Just borderline. What a relief.

Of course, every day in the stock market is different. The point of the blog was don’t place bets if you don’t know the odds. These gamblers thought the odds of one particular spin were improved because of the spins that proceeded it. They’re not.

–Doug

#44 James on 03.10.18 at 8:12 pm

LOL, what a jaw-dropping display of Conservative incompetence today in Ontario!

These are the same financially illiterate idiots who will plunge every government they control into debt and reward only the rich while destroying the planet.

But now there’s hope – that they will destroy themselves first :)

Average Ontario PC member IQ – 75

What a joke of a party!

#45 Smoking Man on 03.10.18 at 8:29 pm

#44 James on 03.10.18 at 8:12 pm
LOL, what a jaw-dropping display of Conservative incompetence today in Ontario!

These are the same financially illiterate idiots who will plunge every government they control into debt and reward only the rich while destroying the planet.

But now there’s hope – that they will destroy themselves first :)

Average Ontario PC member IQ – 75

What a joke of a party!
……

Haha… finance illiterate huh? T2 and Wynne bankrupting the nation..

You need to leave your deranged emotion out the equation.

Soory toots. Ford nation is back. Populism is cool. Time to find your way back to the closet.

IQ 75.. you wish…..

#46 MF on 03.10.18 at 8:47 pm

8 Reynolds531 on 03.10.18 at 7:36 pm
So Doug Ford. Is this good or what?

-Bad. Really dumb move in my opinion.

It should have been Mulroney. It’s similar to how Bernier lost the national PC race. We desperately need the provincial and federal PC’s to get their act together and they keep disappointing.

MF

#47 For those about to flop... on 03.10.18 at 8:54 pm

Back around the turn of the century ,I lived just outside of Monaco for 9 months.

I lived in an apartment in Villfranche-sur-Mer ,while I worked on Paul Allen’s French Villa out on the nearby peninsula with a name of Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat.

Anyway, I think we were slightly closer to Nice ,but preferred to do the weekly grocery shop in Monaco as the compactness of everything and underground parking made it an easier experience.

On one of these excursions my wallet slipped out of my track pants as I entered our work van.

I only noticed halfway back home and we went back and searched the parkade and talked to some staff at the supermarket,but alas I thought I had kissed goodbye around 400 French Francs (roughly $100 CAD)and a heap of plastic including my Australian drivers license.

Anyway a couple of days later a local suggested I go to some small police office in Monaco and at least tell them what had happened.

When I got there, I started to try and tell them who I was and the guy went over to a cabinet and I thought he was getting some paperwork to fill out and he came back and simply put my wallet up on the counter.

I was just happy to get my wallet back because I could tell it still had some of its contents inside,after bracing myself for the worst I opened it up and all my plastic and the 400FF was still inside.

When we were driving back home my French friend told me how low the crime rate was there , and we had a laugh after they joked that they were surprised that It didn’t have more than 400FF inside ,because someone possibly could have put some more money in it because they would have known it belonged to a pauper such is the lifestyle there…

M43BC

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Villefranche-sur-Mer

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat

#48 It's almost Ova on 03.10.18 at 8:59 pm

PC Party Election officials are just waiting for Robert Mugabe to arrive to give the eulogy.

Here lies the remains of the Ontario PC Party.
They doug their own grave.

#49 BC_Doc on 03.10.18 at 9:02 pm

I’m an old social science major. For fun, I looked up:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1893

Will the coin keep coming up heads time after time? Probably not.

Will the present bull market keep carry on? Is it different this time? Hmm…

A poster above wrote about current PE and CAPE and being quite stretched at the moment. One should avoid being the greater fool who pays top dollar for an over inflated piece of RE in Toronto or Vancouver. Ditto to an overpriced share of a company traded on Wall Street.

#50 Axehead on 03.10.18 at 9:14 pm

Smoking man is stupid. Learn how to spell.

#51 Keith in Rio on 03.10.18 at 9:35 pm

Given that the central banks own about 40% of the entire GDP of the planet in financial assets, I’d say it really doesn’t matter if the ball lands on red or black.

You are a fool for being in the casino in the first place.

The game “is” over.

#52 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.18 at 9:36 pm

Another excellent topic Doug.
Well done.

On another note. Doug Ford?
Holy crap!

Perhaps a bit of a backlash to the gender neutered politically correct pablum constantly shovelled down the voters throats day in and day out.
“Sox” Trudeau take note………

#53 Leo Trollstoy on 03.10.18 at 9:45 pm

$US is supported by the strongest economy in the world

$C is supported by indebted broke Canadians

Easy choice

$US all day every day

#54 Leo Trollstoy on 03.10.18 at 9:51 pm

What do homeowners in Vancouver and Toronto do if they missed selling into peak real estate prices in 2017?

#55 I wear a hat on 03.10.18 at 9:54 pm

An offtoppic:
This is outrageous
BC woman gets 4.5 years in jail for teaching people how to evade taxes over $120K ??? 4.5 years in jail!? Hope someone of the blog dogs can look into this and perhaps help… (ad nauseum)

She forgot to get paid in cash under the table loL

#56 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.10.18 at 10:12 pm

I don’t see a stock market or housing crash coming. I can see minor corrections and fluctuations but no crash. There is just too much liquidity out there after 10 years of QE, cheap money, and easy credit. If anything, markets will stay sideways for a decade until wage inflation catches up to the markets and then prices will continue their upward trends.

#57 OttawaMike on 03.10.18 at 10:16 pm

James,

Prepare for Premier Doug Ford.

#58 The Darkest Hour on 03.10.18 at 10:22 pm

The Great Smog in Markham is not yet dispersed, but some casualties are all but certain. In a rare display of unity, PC Party members gave Tanya Allen the inadvertent Churchill victory sign. Despite bringing the biggest moneybag, Caroline Mulroney came dead last after following her father’s advice:
“Don’t be content to be the chip off the old block – be the old block itself.”

The remaining two are preparing for the Herculean task of leading a nation to war. We await the final tally from the front.

#59 IHCTD9 on 03.10.18 at 10:24 pm

#38 Reynolds531 on 03.10.18 at 7:36 pm
So Doug Ford. Is this good or what?
—————-

Probably not. I’m guessing it won’t be long before he gets metoo’d out of the game as well.

#60 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.10.18 at 10:38 pm

The casino algorithm is 49-51….the doesn’t always win, but it will . It’s within the confines of that algo that we profit ….or lose. I take umbrage with those Democratic lmalcontents who insist that this economic cycle must include the flailing incompetence of Obama see the last reversion as something Obama had a hand in….nothing of the kind. The financial scare was an anomaly perpetrated by poor asministration. We quickly got back to even because nothing had occurred exept an outburst of fear…..and babies were thrown out with the bathwater.

The current cycle began November 16,2016 when animal spirits swere released with the election of Donald Trump. Since then everything has changed. And so, this bull market has years to run….the stimuls from the tax changes alone have barely started to lift valuations. Stay invested, you ain’t seen nothing yet. There are seven more years of Trump.

#61 The other Doug, in London on 03.10.18 at 10:42 pm

This topic reminds me of something I read in an economics book many years ago. It said: economists have accurately predicted seven of the last five recessions.

If you’re that worried about this economic expansion ending, follow the advice of this blog with that all important diversified portfolio. If you’re over weighted in equities, cash in some winners (wait a few months for this correction to end) and buy more fixed income investments. It worked for me in 2009 when those fixed income investments, mainly bond funds, held most of their value while stocks went on sale big time 9 years ago from now.

#62 Tony on 03.10.18 at 10:42 pm

Re: #56 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.10.18 at 10:12 pm

Tell me in 10 years’ time (2028) how buy and hold worked out for U.S stocks.

#63 steerage steward on 03.10.18 at 10:43 pm

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XyduML3SNfo

Gunna work out

Garth on the right

#64 Terry on 03.10.18 at 10:43 pm

Go Doug Ford!

Populism seeds sprout in Ontario!

Good Job!…………..There is now hope again!

#65 MF on 03.10.18 at 10:46 pm

#59 IHCTD9 on 03.10.18 at 10:24 pm

Right on.

They should have chosen one of the female candidates to neutralize that threat.

Should have been Ellis (I think or name was), or Mulroney.

What a joke….but we will have to hold are noses and vote for Ford out of necessity.

MF

#66 SOS Minnow on 03.10.18 at 10:53 pm

In his call for unity, new Skipper Doug Ford has asked Christine to accept the role of Mrs. Howell, Tanya will play Maryanne, and Caroline will be the new Ginger. No replacement for Gilligan was announced, but Jason Kenney has reportedly ordered a treadmill.

#67 IHCTD9 on 03.10.18 at 10:53 pm

#44 James on 03.10.18 at 8:12 pm
LOL, what a jaw-dropping display of Conservative incompetence today in Ontario!

These are the same financially illiterate idiots who will plunge every government they control into debt and reward only the rich while destroying the planet.

But now there’s hope – that they will destroy themselves first :)

Average Ontario PC member IQ – 75

What a joke of a party
—————

You must not live in Ontario where we have the largest sub-sovereign debt on the planet. Yes, the entire planet.

Libs have run the show here for the last 15 years. They’ve sold off the entire electrical grid to the private sector. They’ve more than doubled the cost of electricity in the last 10 years, so much so that our current premiere is taking on debt (that taxpayers will need to repay – plus interest) just to lower the cost to tolerable levels. The Ontario Libs have blown billions in multiple scandals and are still being investigated.

Ontario has never seen such debt accumulation as they have since the Libs took over in ’03. Interest payments alone soaked Ontario taxpayers of over 11 BILLION dollars last year. Paying interest on our debt is the third largest line item on the budget, and only barely behind education.

The debt under the Ontario Liberals is the highest in Ontario’s history, the fastest growing expense we have, and our debt to gdp ratio has never, ever been worse. The Libs have punished Ontario’s finances so relentlessly, that Quebec’s credit rating has surpassed ours as of last year for the first time ever. 350+ Thousand good manufacturing jobs have exited Ontario on the Liberal’s watch.

I can understand the question marks over Ford’s election, but ffs, know what you’re talking about before you opine…

#68 Mark on 03.10.18 at 10:56 pm

“$C is supported by indebted broke Canadians”

Which means that Canadians will have to work their butts off or disburse their assets on the cheap to repay the debt. To the Canadians who lent them the money, of course.

And just how is the US economy strong? They haven’t even meaningfully covered their domestic consumption since the 1970s with their economic output. That strike me as being incredibly weak.

#69 Rentin on 03.10.18 at 11:12 pm

Garth is still betting on Red, while recommending not entering the casino at all……

Spring is here. We will see what the next 8 weeks brings. Listings under 1M still fly off the shelves (nice house, crappy neighbourhood)

Children’s dream lottery is worth 2.2M.

Something has to change.

#70 007 in the six on 03.10.18 at 11:17 pm

Ryan

Better to go all in on the “00”. It’s gonna be a big payout!

#71 007 in the six on 03.10.18 at 11:18 pm

Dougie….sorry about that. The help all looks the same from the steerage section!

#72 Nonplused on 03.11.18 at 12:16 am

People don’t understand statistics. I have a feeling they can’t unless they’ve taken math courses, and even then you have to be above average IQ to get it.

For example, the chances of flipping heads 10 times in a row is 0.5^10 or 0.5×0.5×0.5 etc until there are 10 0.5’s. Which works out to 9.7% (there is a x100 to get to percent). So after flipping 10 heads in a row people begin to believe that the odds of flipping an 11th heads is less than 9.7%. It’s not, it’s 50/50. The next flip is not dependent on the previous flips. They were all independent. There is no chain of events. The probability of flipping heads 10 times in a row is not a function of any individual flip.

That, folks, is also why you can’t beat a slot machine or VLT by timing it. They do not pay out based on time, it is each time an independent flip. You also can’t beat the house reliably, or we would be rich and they would be poor.

But anyway even if the current length of the current “winning” streak on wall street has no impact on what will happen tomorrow, tomorrow is still 50/50. Sooner or later there will be a recession. And sooner or later that will be followed by more growth. It won’t be all tails from here either but there will be some.

However, sometimes it is very possible to identify trends by looking at the difference between historical results and what “statistics” would have suggested. My favorite example and I’ve used it here before but not for some years is the fact that no Canadian team has won the Stanley Cup since 1993, despite making up approximately 1/3 of the league. Now, the right way to do that is not to go 0.66^24 (percent of US teams to the power of years in a row they won) but it’ll give you an idea. It’s statistically impossible. The game is rigged, as are all professional sports. Not rigged in that they actually manipulate the games, although I suppose if they needed to they would just like WWE, but more through the fact that the big US markets get all the best players. Even The Great One went to LA. The trend is there and there is someone manipulating it for financial gain and you should not bet against it. It’s a business after all.

The same can be said of the stock market. There is a trend and it has to do with growth. Even if any given day could be 50/50, over the long term the gains are a little bit more than the losses, so the trend is up.

#73 Blackdog on 03.11.18 at 12:17 am

omg…just spent the last few hours cleaning up the dog. Apparently she encountered a skunk in the fenced in backyard. She still smells. I smell. The kids smell. Everything smells. Off to Pet Smart tomorrow for the deskunker magic potion. I wanna hurl. Sad dog is relegated to the basement bathroom for the night. Clean and shiny, but forever stinky. I felt guilty and gave her cheese and filled her Kong with peanut butter. She isn’t complaining, but still…..

#74 al on 03.11.18 at 3:02 am

” The fact that US economic expansions range so widely in length suggests that each one is very much different from the others and should be assessed independently”

In roulette, past results/outcomes have no effect on future ones. This is obviously not the case in the economy. Of course you already know this as a gambler. I get the point you’re trying to make about not predicting the future based solely on the streak, but the streak may be relevant in the economy (theoretically if we understood it sufficiently, but most likely not in practice), in roulette it is not.

#75 Stan Brooks on 03.11.18 at 3:19 am

#40 Mark on 03.10.18 at 7:47 pm
“You mean demand for CAD from broken people with debt who have nothing?

I see no demand for it.”

Canadians have plenty of assets and their labour which will be converted into repaying the consumer debt. This is profoundly deflationary as debt repayment will likely be largely the result of a reduction in discretionary spending on imported goods. Expanding credit spreads will force Canadian consumers into significant debt repayment. A deflationary spiral, where a rising currency and falling consumer prices can be incredibly self-reinforcing.

———————————–

It is much more complex and simple at the same time.
You just need the right angle.

Canadian assets are not worth much, they are priced higher at the moment due to the credit expansion and zero rates, in credit expansion credit serves as money.
in credit contraction money is destroyed.
No money, no asset inflation.

Note that asset inflation surpassed significantly the inflation of goods and services in the last 15 years, now they catch up while inflation of assets reverses.

So houses are going down.

For food, utilities etc. whatever is imported will be increased in value due to the loonie being low.
Whatever is local and non-perishable will be exported out for profit or sold for more on local markets.
This will be driven by weakness of the loonie due to impossibility to increase rates meaningfully.

No country has ever become rich/long term by going into debt/broke.

People have no money, no liquidity to support high asset prices.

There is no such thing as: people will work more to pay there debts when there are no jobs.

Jobs have been stagnant for the last 2 decades while taxes increased.

There is no productive economy precisely due to the capital miss allocation from housing.

I never said banks are screwed.
You and every other taxpayer are.

Banks will survive.
You, I am not so sure.

#76 blog dog on 03.11.18 at 3:20 am

So when they continued asking him,

He lifted Himself up and said unto them;

He that is without sin among you, let he cast a stone

#77 Stan Brooks on 03.11.18 at 3:20 am

Mark’s deflation. Gas at 1.50 in BC

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/spiking-gas-prices-sometimes-really-150000260.html

#78 Stan Brooks on 03.11.18 at 3:24 am

So Mark, read my lips:

You end up having less and less money due to credit contraction while price of stuff – food, utility bills etc, increase at the same time as currency implodes.

Why food and utilities won’t deflate?
Due to the opportunity cost to export them elsewhere for better profit.

Why do you think Canada signed trade agreements with Europe?

If you are Canadian food producer would you sell in depreciating loonie or in Euro and USD?

Classic severe stagflation.

#79 al on 03.11.18 at 3:33 am

“Better to go all in on the “00”. It’s gonna be a big payout!”
Pro tip: never play on a wheel with “00” (in addition to “0”). The payouts the same as a wheel with one zero and the house edge doubles (or 100% higher if I were trying to maximize literary impact)

#80 nubbers on 03.11.18 at 3:53 am

#13 BC Concerned on 03.10.18 at 4:45 pm
An offtoppic:
This is outrageous
BC woman gets 4.5 years in jail for teaching people how to evade taxes over $120K ??? 4.5 years in jail!? Hope someone of the blog dogs can look into this and perhaps help
http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/bc-woman-jailed-teaching-poeple-evade-taxes

Are you confusing tax avoidance (totally legal) and tax evasion (illegal, like robbing a bank)?

Alternatively if this is about protesting against tax, I don’t think she can claim to be a tax protester given that she was providing false returns. That’s just being a common-or-garden cowardly criminal.

A protester would do it out in the open, taking a stand and challenging the assessment in court.

#81 Gravy Train on 03.11.18 at 6:05 am

#47 For those about to flop… on 03.10.18 at 8:54 pm
“I lived in an apartment in Villfranche-sur-Mer, while I worked on Paul Allen’s French Villa out on the nearby peninsula with a name of Saint-Jean-Cap-Ferrat.”

Thanks for the travel tips, Floppy!

There’s an interesting article in the latest edition of International Living magazine (March 2018, vol. 37, no. 11): “Jet-Setting Around the World, Rent-Free.” In most cases you’ll be looking after pets and plants, not just housesitting. Check out the following two Web sites: Trusted Housesitters (Trustedhousesitters.com) and Mind My House (Mindmyhouse.com).

Garth, besides real estate, wealth accumulation and money management, you might also think about introducing topics on health and happiness. The latter two topics—especially for your older clients—are likely the most important. (Just a suggestion.)

#82 Gravy Train on 03.11.18 at 6:33 am

Remembering this might allow you to have a little more jewelry to rattle after your next casino night. — Doug

Nice closing line. I’ve long thought that basic statistics, finance and economics should be taught in high school. Just think how many divorces and business bankruptcies could be avoided in society if people had basic numeracy (and not just literacy) skills.

#83 X on 03.11.18 at 8:10 am

Family friend is selling condo in Elkford….has owned for 20 years…far from a speculator. However the tax is foolish to pay…better to simply rent as needed.

#84 Stan Brooks on 03.11.18 at 8:46 am

By the same token, rejection of probability theory, we could reject the idea of housing correction and accept ever increasing house prices as a given.

BWT the people who lost money in Monte Carlo in 1913 made a smart bet, just in this instance the chance was against them.

The results from previous plays do impact the chances of future outcome, the statement that with any play the chances of getting red or black is 50 % independently from previous outcomes is wrong.

Just as with any gambling it is just a chance, no outcome is guaranteed.

This example/the specific outcome in this specific instance/ is standing by itself but there is probably millions of cases when such strategy actually worked.

The bottom line is – gamble but diversify your risks.

And in risk assessment statistics matters.

Having said that I am all in stocks.

Cheers.

#85 Gravy Train on 03.11.18 at 8:53 am

#72 Nonplused on 03.11.18 at 12:16 am
“People don’t understand statistics. I have a feeling they can’t unless they’ve taken math courses, and even then you have to be above average IQ to get it.

“For example, the chances of flipping heads 10 times in a row is 0.5^10 or 0.5×0.5×0.5 etc until there are 10 0.5’s. Which works out to 9.7% (there is a x100 to get to percent).”

Uh, no! It works out to approx. 0.097% (or 976 out of a million). As Garth is fond of saying, math is hard. :)

#86 Stone on 03.11.18 at 9:16 am

#41 -=jwk=- on 03.10.18 at 7:58 pm
#15 CBS
record long expansion and i only see poverty, not wealth. people living paycheck to paycheck looking in the going bad section at the grocery store.
this game is for millionaires just like always, markets go up markets go down, little people always have nothing, hand to mouth, just to get by. thats it. always has been always will be

———

That’s not what I see.

For success, attitude is equally as important as ability – Walter scott

——-

Completely agree with -=jwk=-. Nailed it! Completely disagree with CBS. Attitude is the key to success. Ability without attitude = going nowhere. Attitude with only a moderate amount of ability = still getting somewhere. Does CBS consider himself one of the little people? Forever stuck to their miserable state? The only one holding yourself back from riches and success is yourself. Think the little people can’t become millionaires? Think again. It’s so much easier than you apparently can imagine.

Step 1 : Tell the little voice in your head to adjust its attitude. All it needs to repeat to you is “Everything is possible. You can do anything”. Rinse and repeat.

Step 2 : Cut the cable/satellite TV. You appear to believe all the bullshit they’re selling (both products and how you should think).

Step 3 : Start thinking for yourself. Epiphany hopefully occurs.

Step 4 : Think back to this post and thank me profusely.

Your welcome.

Last thing. I noticed something else. “record long expansion and i only see poverty, not wealth.” Recommend you don’t use ”i”. It’s capital “I”. Only little people use “i”.

#87 Doug Rowat on 03.11.18 at 9:18 am

#72 Nonplused on 03.11.18 at 12:16 am

…the big US markets get all the best players. Even The Great One went to LA.

30-year anniversary this summer. Still stings.

–Doug

#88 James on 03.11.18 at 9:36 am

Hmm……Emasculated Smoking Turd said:

“Soory toots. Ford nation is back. Populism is cool. Time to find your way back to the closet.

IQ 75.. you wish…..”

———————————————

Sadly, I do wish that the Ford nation that has just Doug (thanks, Ova!) its own grave met the average PC Ontario IQ of 75.

Probably closer to 65. :(

And you, smoking turd, are perhaps around 60.

But to some alien life forms I am sure sure you seem smarter than some six legged insects. :)

#89 Grey Dog on 03.11.18 at 9:39 am

To Black Dog…
When we bought our Grey Dog, a terrier, we bought SKUNK, our second outting to Pet Store, make certain you READ instructions first on how to apply. We’ve used ours 3X in six years. My husband applied it back to back 2 or three times. Being a schnauzer, the last time she got sprayed in the face…scent was just dripping off her, so husband cut her beard and eyebrows off! She didn’t look like our dog for a couple of months. We also used some of those charcoal packs from Lee Valley to absorb lingering skunk smell in car and house.

Always keep a few bottles of soda water around – great, emergency anti-skunk treatment. Soak the dog thoroughly, then add scotch. – Garth

#90 TEMPLE on 03.11.18 at 9:47 am

#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.18 at 9:26 pm

Wow.
Sorry you’re so sensitive.
Each response I wrote was in direct response to the “survey answers” given.
Apparently “Irony” , and “Pun” weren’t handed out by the stork when you were born.
Are you sure you dont want to ban #139 CBC News Update for using Germanic terms as well?

Or are true historical terms too much for you to handle?

Jerry Seinfeld called a character on his show a “Soup Nazi” did you email him about his insensitivity as well?

Grow up.

Of course I didn’t, because the Soup Nazi was an example of actual humour. You are just hiding your antisemitism behind “irony” and “pun” – neither of which your reference to Kristallnacht qualifies as, especially not in “direct reference” to the survey answers. You wrote “Kristalnacht”[sic] in response to “schadenfreude”. Explain the irony and/pun to me? I suggest you look up schadenfreude and explain why you think Kristallnacht (you also need to look that up, I am guessing) is a pun or an ironic response. You won’t because you can’t, and like every other anti-semite, you pretend your anti-semitism is a joke when called out on it. Have some integrity and own your mistake and/or your anti-semitism; right now you are hiding and being cowardly about it.

I will definitely try to grow up, thanks. Good advice from a grown man who calls himself “crowdedelevatorfarts”.

#91 Grey Dog on 03.11.18 at 10:00 am

This Conservative business is a TOTAL MESS, remember it was Christine Elliott, who said last week, NO EXTENSION for ballot casting. I wonder what she is thinking today? She won the most votes, she won the most ridings, she just didn’t win the weighted electoral votes. I recommend she get Hillary Clinton’s audiobook What Happened, it might help with her ability to cope and sleep. Eliott certainly had my armchair vote after watching leadership debate. Elliot like Hillary was the most accomplished.

There is NO WAY I can vote for Doug Ford, I also cannot vote for Kathleen, what can I do??? I always vote in the advanced voting booths. My rule; if you don’t vote, you cannot complain about what the Government is currently doing…I guess I like complaining.

#92 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.18 at 10:24 am

@ Tempest
Newsflash.
Germany lost(twice).
Israel has been a nation for 70 years.
And every comment isnt anti anything( at least in my world not yours)
The “pc sensitivity alert” seems to be reaching new levels of intolerance.
Let’s tear down all the statues. Rewrite history in our new pc agenda. Burn the books we dont agree with.
“Tom Sawyer” might be a good start for the pc crowd
Delete comments YOU dont like.
Make all comments “safe” and “stay within YOUR comfort zone”.
No disagreements. No comments that might be considered risque.
The new world order according to…..YOU.
And considering what you’re erroneously accusing me of?
Ironic dont you think?
But as I said before.
You missed “irony” when they were handing it out in the childrens ward

#93 I’m stupid on 03.11.18 at 10:30 am

#84 Stan Brooks

The results from previous plays do impact the chances of future outcome, the statement that with any play the chances of getting red or black is 50 % independently from previous outcomes is wrong.

——-

You have no idea what you’re talking about. For your statement to be correct one of two things must occur;
The black number in the past roll would need to be removed so red has an increasing advantage going forward.

Or the payout split must change to favour red when black is rolled.

You’re the one giving value to the past spin of the wheel. Every spin is completely independent from the last and no variables are added or removed to influence the future spins.

#94 CBC Ober arbiter on 03.11.18 at 10:41 am

#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.18 at 9:26 pm

Wow.
Sorry you’re so sensitive.
Each response I wrote was in direct response to the “survey answers” given.
Apparently “Irony” , and “Pun” weren’t handed out by the stork when you were born.
Are you sure you dont want to ban #139 CBC News Update for using Germanic terms as well?

Grow up.
———-

….. You are just hiding your antisemitism behind “irony” and “pun” – neither of which your reference to Kristallnacht qualifies as, especially not in “direct reference” to the survey answers. You wrote “Kristalnacht”[sic] in response to “schadenfreude”. Explain the irony and/pun to me? I suggest you look up schadenfreude and explain why you think Kristallnacht (you also need to look that up, I am guessing) is a pun or an ironic response……

***********
I winced when I read it, but realized the intent was to highlight the danger of unfettered anything. At least that was my take. Garth is always Right.

Nazi’s are always fair game, even in Germany. But doncha be quoting the Dalai Lama no more.

http://www.dw.com/en/is-it-illegal-to-call-someone-a-nazi/a-42313527

#95 Ace Goodheart on 03.11.18 at 10:44 am

Interesting article. I am of the persuasion that market timing is impossible and dangerous to even attempt. There are two methods of investing, either research your individual companies and purchase shares in ones you think, based on your research, are underpriced and likely to make money, or do what an increasingly large number of people are doing, and buy the indexes.

Good companies survive recessions. Indexes historically usually go up.

Looks like we are going to have a populist revolt in Ontario. The Libs need to get a charismatic leader and they need to do it fast. Or they are going to lose and we are going to be stuck with years of corrosive populism, at a time when we can least afford it.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.11.18 at 10:46 am

Speaking of irony and misguided protests.

I was leaving my humble abode yesterday and there was a huge traffic jam.
Cars blocking the road. Police directing traffic. In a residential neighborhood at 10am. Traffic for blocks and blocks and blocks.
Took ten minutes to drive 3 blocks.
I asked a policeman what was going on.
“Protesters against the Kinder Morgan pipeline’

Several hundred, maybe a thousand.
They all arrived by car…….to protest an oil pipeline.

#97 AK on 03.11.18 at 10:55 am

#62 Tony on 03.10.18 at 10:42 pm
“Tell me in 10 years’ time (2028) how buy and hold worked out for U.S stocks.”
——————————————————————–
Wow, you can see 10 years into the future ?

#98 NoName on 03.11.18 at 11:21 am

Interesting read, I gues some math and sotp watch could beat wheel.

An alleged high-tech roulette scam that saw three people walk out of a London casino with £1.3 million recently sounds too implausible even for a movie plot.

But a physicist who developed a technology-based system that famously beat the wheel in the 1970s has told New Scientist that in theory it would have been fairly easy to carry out with a little know-how and the right tools.
Two men and a woman were arrested on 16 March after raking in a huge win over two evenings. Suspicious casino staff are said to have reviewed videotapes of the players and called in the police, whose investigation is continuing. The trio are now on bail and have not been charged with any crime.
Some media reports have suggested they used mobile phones fitted with laser scanners to measure the speed of the roulette ball when it was released, in order to calculate where it was likely to fall. The whole calculation would need to have been completed in just a few seconds, as the dealer cuts off betting after the ball has rolled three times around the wheel.

But the trick could be pulled off a lot more simply if the phones were used as stop watches, says Norman Packard, a physicist at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico, US.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn4815-alleged-high-tech-roulette-scam-easy-to-set-up/

#99 NoName on 03.11.18 at 11:32 am

#95 Ace Goodheart on 03.11.18 at 10:44 am
Interesting article. I am of the persuasion that market timing is impossible and dangerous to even attempt.

you are over thinking that one, if you think of market timing 100% funds in market and out 100% out of the market, is wrong. But what if you try to time it ve-bit different, without touching principle all together, buy using contributions and cash that sits in account. than its not as impossible or dangerous as you might think.
But I was wrong before…

#100 AfterTheHouseSold on 03.11.18 at 11:34 am

#46 MF
“It’s similar to how Bernier lost the national PC race.”

Bernier was taken down by the powerful Quebec dairy cartel when he campaigned on opening up the industry to competition.

Fast forward to the current NAFTA negotiations: Wisconsin Congressman and Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan intervened on the steel tariffs, securing temporary reprieve for Canada dependent on the outcome of NAFTA.

Wisconsin is a big dairy state with an excess of product looking to expand into the Canadian market. This would loosen the stranglehold of the Quebec dairy cartel resulting in lower prices of cheese.

No doubt Paul Ryan wants something in return for removing tariffs on Canadian steel. Will Paul Ryan get those NAFTA concessions for his state of Wisconsin? Keep in mind that Trudeau needs those Quebec votes in the next election.

Will Ryan succeed and thus implement Bernier’s campaign promise for him? Stay tuned for the next round of NAFTA.

#101 Rooster on 03.11.18 at 11:42 am

#93 I’m stupid on 03.11.18 at 10:30 am
#84 Stan Brooks

The results from previous plays do impact the chances of future outcome, the statement that with any play the chances of getting red or black is 50 % independently from previous outcomes is wrong.
——-
You have no idea what you’re talking about. ..

********
Stan you’re confusing Monte Carlo with Monty Hall

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

#102 Damifino on 03.11.18 at 11:57 am

#32 Asiakid

(if you try to argue to the opposite, I would suggest considering the Monte hall 3 doors problem since no sane person would expect a perfect economy forever).
———————————

The Monty Hall ‘3-door problem’ has nothing whatsoever to do with the point of Doug’s post. In fact, the same could be said about about your entire response.

#103 theoryAndPractice on 03.11.18 at 11:58 am

How much dough gambler has ?
if one assumes infinite credit to gamble, and no limit on how much gambler can bet, the way to win for sure is to bet double the amount each time. Starting from $1, gambler would need 2^26=67M, by loosing approx 33.5M at 26th try and winning 33.5M back with 67M at 27th.

Is math always useful ?
Also one should consider even mathematically it looks 50/50, but with ‘human factor’ blended, the result is actually unpredictable, ie. 500 sequential tries may be black with a rigged game.

Discrete or not ?
Lastly, the world events, economic, social or political are all connected. Each move has a current outcome that has impact from past-moves and will be impacting the future-moves, similar to ‘block chain’. No, I don’t own bitcoin

#104 TurnerNation on 03.11.18 at 12:02 pm

101st? Looks like FordNation is back. Better keep this username.
Anyone can seriously become leader in this country – tell your kids – as long as your surname is Trudoh, Muldooney, or Ford.

Best bet this month is overseas ETFs: China, Russia, India. Got some calls yest.

#105 Penny Henny on 03.11.18 at 12:07 pm

#73 Blackdog on 03.11.18 at 12:17 am
omg…just spent the last few hours cleaning up the dog. Apparently she encountered a skunk in the fenced in backyard. She still smells. I smell. The kids smell. Everything smells. Off to Pet Smart tomorrow for the deskunker magic potion. I wanna hurl. Sad dog is relegated to the basement bathroom for the night. Clean and shiny, but forever stinky. I felt guilty and gave her cheese and filled her Kong with peanut butter. She isn’t complaining, but still…..
//////////////////

baking soda, hydrogen peroxide and some dish soap.

google it

#106 aa3 on 03.11.18 at 12:19 pm

I think in Ontario the government is so out of control that the typical milquetoast, Marquees of Queensbury rules for gentlemen abiding, cocktail circuit invitee Tory is not going to be enough.

It has to be someone who is willing to be hated, even enjoys being hated. Because when the reforms start there is going to be immense pressure from the government unions, the government bureaucracy and all the special interests connected to the government.

#107 Renter's Revenge! on 03.11.18 at 12:26 pm

If you day trade index funds, does that make you a passive-aggressive investor?

Maybe you should just lower your expectations for future returns after a long period of above average returns, and raise them after a long period of below average returns, and leave it at that.

Besides, if you’re holding an investment with low expected future returns, and you don’t have anything better to do with the money, what’s the point of selling? Isn’t one of the fundamental concepts in economics the comparison of, and selection between, alternatives?

#108 Eyestrain on 03.11.18 at 12:34 pm

#67 IHCTD9 on 03.10.18 at 10:53 pm
#44 James on 03.10.18 at 8:12 pm
LOL, what a jaw-dropping display of Conservative incompetence today in Ontario!
……
What a joke of a party
—————

You must not live in Ontario where we have the largest sub-sovereign debt on the planet. They’ve sold off the entire electrical grid to the private sector. They’ve more than doubled the cost of electricity in the last 10 years, The Ontario Libs have blown billions in multiple scandals and are still being investigated.
The debt under the Ontario Liberals is the highest in Ontario’s history. 350+ Thousand good manufacturing jobs have exited Ontario on the Liberal’s watch.

I can understand the question marks over Ford’s election, but ffs, know what you’re talking about before you opine…
************

Agree with all, except we will still own half the grid (the unprofitable half) and it sez here that privatization legislation was enacted in 1998 (still Harris ).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_Hydro

As to James’ comment, how much faith can you have in a Party that can’t even rig their own election?

#109 Broker of Record on 03.11.18 at 12:45 pm

#102 Damifino on 03.11.18 at 11:57 am
#32 Asiakid

(if you try to argue to the opposite, I would suggest considering the Monte hall 3 doors problem since no sane person would expect a perfect economy forever).
———————————

The Monty Hall ‘3-door problem’ has nothing whatsoever to do with the point of Doug’s post. In fact, the same could be said about about your entire response.
————
One concerns probability in the form of a binomial distribution, the other concerns probability in the form of legalized prostitution.

#110 NBc Peacock on 03.11.18 at 1:23 pm

#64 Terry on 03.10.18 at 10:43 pm

Go Doug Ford!

Populism seeds sprout in Ontario!

Good Job!…………..There is now hope again!
†*********

Ford Nation still believes “All in the Family” was reality TV.

#111 Smartalox on 03.11.18 at 1:35 pm

@ IHTDC9 #67:

The privatization of Ontario Hydro was initiated by the Mike Harris government in 1998. I remember that clearly, because I worked for the Utility at the time. Selling off profitable, prize assets long paid for by the people of Ontario, to party insiders and cronies for a one-time windfall not applied to debt was a hallmark of 90’s Conservatism.

Now the stranding of $1.1 Billion in cancelled gas plant debt, the ridiculous deals to buy ‘green’ power, and other subsequent shoddy management decisions? Those are definitely the fault of the Ontario Liberal party.

There’s enough stupidity to go around for everyone. Just be sure to put the blame where it belongs.

#112 IHCTD9 on 03.11.18 at 1:46 pm

#106 aa3 on 03.11.18 at 12:19 pm
I think in Ontario the government is so out of control that the typical milquetoast, Marquees of Queensbury rules for gentlemen abiding, cocktail circuit invitee Tory is not going to be enough.

It has to be someone who is willing to be hated, even enjoys being hated. Because when the reforms start there is going to be immense pressure from the government unions, the government bureaucracy and all the special interests connected to the government
———

You get it. The headwinds against positive change come from the Ontario people themselves. No government will be able to do anything to improve the economy, debt, or the current habit of running massive deficits to pay for useless stuff. If they try, it’s good-bye the very next election.

That’s why I’m voting for Wynne – another 4 years (hopefully a majority) of her will likely have debt service costs surpass the costs of education. It’s a bad scene, but anyone who has put some thought into our future in this Province already understands there is no reasonable chance of it turning around until much pain and fear is inflicted upon it’s Citizenry.

Either that, or we’re going broke.

IMHO, that is why getting out of debt of any kind, along with minimizing your exposure to government is job #1right now. Everyone is buried in debt, and wanting someone else to foot the bill. Taxes HAVE to go up if the economy, job, and wage situations do not SIGNIFICANTLY improve. They won’t with the current situation being what it is.

Might as well attempt to bring a quick end to it, and be ready for the financial fallout thereof.

#113 Somebuddy on 03.11.18 at 1:51 pm

So many words, just to say “this time is different”.

#114 IHCTD9 on 03.11.18 at 2:01 pm

#108 Eyestrain on 03.11.18 at 12:34 pm
#67 IHCTD9 on 03.10.18 at 10:53 pm

Agree with all, except we will still own half the grid (the unprofitable half) and it sez here that privatization legislation was enacted in 1998 (still Harris ).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_Hydro

As to James’ comment, how much faith can you have in a Party that can’t even rig their own election?

————

Harris did not privatize anything. He reorganized OntarioHydro as it was bankrupt. That is how we got OPG, Hydro One et-al, all of these were still public corps up till Wynne decided to sell 60% of our electricity grid to the private sector.

Ontario Citizens currently now own only 49.9% of the grid they paid for thanks to Wynne. The plan calls for up to 60% of the electrical grid to be sold off.

Once the private sector ownership collectively exceeds 51%, the Government has the potential to be overpowered when it comes to controlling this very expensive, very important, once publicly owned infrastructure asset.

It was the single most destructive thing Wynne has done – and that’s saying a lot. Wynne will be probably be gone when the general public finally understands the consequences of this ultra-stupid decision, so she don’t care.

#115 Keith in Rio on 03.11.18 at 2:05 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/rbc-chief-warns-foreigners-using-canadian-homes-as-piggy-banks

“We do not need foreign capital using Canadian real estate as a piggy bank,” David McKay, said Tuesday at a bank conference in New York hosted by the Toronto-based lender. “If capital is coming in to sit in a home, unproductively, and is distorting your marketplace and the livelihood of your residents — no thank you.”

Garth said that this wasn’t an issue at all, and that we were all xenophobic and bigoted.

I guess when you have to “cross the floor” in politics to keep the pay cheques coming in, you wouldn’t know the difference.

#116 Prairieboy43 on 03.11.18 at 2:05 pm

Congrats Doug Ford. PC will win Ontario election. Stamp it! Private sector that elects Doug will need to supply him with big Cannons. This will be ugly, Government unions will be reeled in reluctantly. Expect animosity, strikes, fights and violence. In Alberta expect similar outcome. Kenney will obliterate the NDP. Only Edmonton will have NDP reps. Then the provincial Conservative pressure of Ford/Kenney will zero in on Ottawa. The pendulum has shifted to right. The Force is with them.
PB43

#117 IHCTD9 on 03.11.18 at 2:10 pm

#111 Smartalox on 03.11.18 at 1:35 pm
@ IHTDC9 #67:

The privatization of Ontario Hydro was initiated by the Mike Harris government in 1998

Wrong. OPG and Hydro One were public corps.

Why would the Ontario government receive 9 billion for selling shares in a company they don’t own?

https://news.ontario.ca/mei/en/2017/05/ontario-raises-28-billion-from-final-hydro-one-share-offering.html

Harris broke it into pcs because OH was insolvent, he did not sell any of it to the private sector. Indeed, there was talk of having these new private corps eventually run as private entities, but it never happened. Well, not until Wynne came along and needed a few billion to appear to balance the budget.

#118 Stan Brooks on 03.11.18 at 2:15 pm

#101 Rooster on 03.11.18 at 11:42 am
#93 I’m stupid on 03.11.18 at 10:30 am
#84 Stan Brooks

The results from previous plays do impact the chances of future outcome, the statement that with any play the chances of getting red or black is 50 % independently from previous outcomes is wrong.
——-
You have no idea what you’re talking about. ..

********
Stan you’re confusing Monte Carlo with Monty Hall

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

————————————–

All things being equal (i.e. unable to measure ball speed, specifics of the roulette) it is not that simple.

True, you can review each spin as independent.

But then statistically:
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ReversiontotheMean.html

Reversion to the Mean
Reversion to the mean, also called regression to the mean, is the statistical phenomenon stating that the greater the deviation of a random variate from its mean, the greater the probability that the next measured variate will deviate less far. In other words, an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event.

—————————–

the greater the winning steak is in red the more improbable is for it co continue.

So you are ignoring the statistics.

Bad, bad idea.

#119 NoName on 03.11.18 at 2:22 pm

#104 TurnerNation on 03.11.18 at 12:02 pm

Anyone can seriously become leader in this country – tell your kids – as long as your surname is Trudoh, Muldooney, or Ford.

#65 MF on 03.10.18 at 10:46 pm
What a joke….but we will have to hold are noses and vote for Ford out of necessity.

I could not agree more, Ontario PC will be screwed dynastiely.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/top-10-family-dynasties-canadian-politics-171516840.html

#120 Russ on 03.11.18 at 2:34 pm

Grey Dog on 03.11.18 at 9:39 am

To Black Dog…
got sprayed in the face…scent was just dripping off her, so husband cut her beard and eyebrows off! She didn’t look like our dog for a couple of months. We also used some of those charcoal packs from Lee Valley to absorb lingering skunk smell in car and house.
————————————————
Always keep a few bottles of soda water around – great, emergency anti-skunk treatment. Soak the dog thoroughly, then add scotch. – Garth
===============================

The procedure is not quite clear.

Can we assume the scotch is for Alpha Dog, after soaking the poor affected critter?

Cheers, R

#121 MF on 03.11.18 at 2:36 pm

#114 IHCTD9 on 03.11.18 at 2:01 pm

IH taking out the trash again today folks.

Watch and learn.

And, as much as I dislike him, Doug ford is the next Premier of Ontario.

MF

#122 Stan Brooks on 03.11.18 at 2:43 pm

#115 Keith in Rio on 03.11.18 at 2:05 pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/rbc-chief-warns-foreigners-using-canadian-homes-as-piggy-banks

“We do not need foreign capital using Canadian real estate as a piggy bank,” David McKay, said Tuesday at a bank conference in New York hosted by the Toronto-based lender. “If capital is coming in to sit in a home, unproductively, and is distorting your marketplace and the livelihood of your residents — no thank you.”

Garth said that this wasn’t an issue at all, and that we were all xenophobic and bigoted.

I guess when you have to “cross the floor” in politics to keep the pay cheques coming in, you wouldn’t know the difference.

—————————————–

He/RBC is trying to cover his behind. Listing everything except banks, government as the reason for high prices.

Why if there is no problem brewing?
The blame game shows that it is starting to hit the fan.

====================

But then if we ignore statistics, the chance of house prices going up in the next year should be the same as going down, 50-50. No?

No reason to worry.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/keep-calm-carry-policy-normalization-170824574.html

#123 Stan Brooks on 03.11.18 at 2:55 pm

#112 IHCTD9 on 03.11.18 at 1:46 pm

Either that, or we’re going broke.

IMHO, that is why getting out of debt of any kind, along with minimizing your exposure to government is job #1right now. Everyone is buried in debt, and wanting someone else to foot the bill. Taxes HAVE to go up if the economy, job, and wage situations do not SIGNIFICANTLY improve. They won’t with the current situation being what it is.

Might as well attempt to bring a quick end to it, and be ready for the financial fallout thereof.

====================

Yep, and just wait until wild bill and T2 are hit with the bills for CMHC and other government insured mortgage losses.

They will blame everyone but themselves.

There will be tax cheats, doctors and plumbers witch hunts.

#124 AlMac on 03.11.18 at 2:58 pm

I have a balanced and diversified basket of etfs pretty much following the advice provided here and by other sources in Canada. I have a couple of questions that I have not found answers to yet, and perhaps those on here have some insight.

Why does the current advice stipulate holding a substantial percent of the portfolio in Canadian equities? If I lived in the UK or Germany for example, I doubt the advice there would be to hold a high percent of Canadian equities. Does the advice we are given here have a Canadian bias?

Another question is, to hold a truly diversified portfolio, should we not purchase equities on the foreign exchanges themselves rather than on the tsx that tracks those markets? I ask because the Canadian and foreign based equity etf trends on the tsx appear to be highly correlated, as seen by the recent sharp short term declines in February and subsequent rebound. What am I missing?

#125 NoName on 03.11.18 at 2:59 pm

watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVWQlKQSdEY

#126 Doug Rowat on 03.11.18 at 3:08 pm

#118 Stan Brooks on 03.11.18 at 2:15 pm

the greater the winning steak is in red the more improbable is for it co continue.

So you are ignoring the statistics.

Bad, bad idea.

You can only affect the odds if you’re willing to commit to a series of wagers and, in particular, to vary your bets based on the betting of others.

But, if you’re betting once on the next spin, the outcome is not influenced in any way by the results of past spins.

If you believe differently, Vegas awaits you with open arms.

–Doug

#127 Howard on 03.11.18 at 3:22 pm

Already I’m seeing posts from Liberals on social media gloatingly that Wynne has the next election in the bag.

They’re already underestimating Doug Ford. He wasn’t my choice for leader but he works damn hard and will fight for every single vote. I dare the Liberals to turn sex ed into a wedge issue. Do they really think that many people agree with teaching explicit sex to young children?

#128 I’m stupid on 03.11.18 at 3:22 pm

#118 Stan Brooks

the greater the winning steak is in red the more improbable is for it co continue.

So you are ignoring the statistics.

———

Still wrong, you’re ignoring that you need to change a variable (you must keep doubling your wager to win). The number of consecutive reds in the past doesn’t change the future probabity of the next roll. Eventually black will come out but your reasoning to why is flawed. That’s why all tables at the casino have limits, it’s to prevent infinite # of doubling wagers until one wins.

#129 Howard on 03.11.18 at 3:29 pm

#88 James on 03.11.18 at 9:36 am
Hmm……Emasculated Smoking Turd said:

“Soory toots. Ford nation is back. Populism is cool. Time to find your way back to the closet.

IQ 75.. you wish…..”

———————————————

Sadly, I do wish that the Ford nation that has just Doug (thanks, Ova!) its own grave met the average PC Ontario IQ of 75.

Probably closer to 65. :(

And you, smoking turd, are perhaps around 60.

But to some alien life forms I am sure sure you seem smarter than some six legged insects. :)

—————————————————

Do you think Justin Trudeau is intelligent?

#130 Ontario Government on 03.11.18 at 3:30 pm

You will never guess what is in the planning stages that they have spent a lot of money on. They must be in a state up utter madness with no end. $20 billion for a new high speed train service from Windsor to Toronto.

#131 SoggyShorts on 03.11.18 at 3:39 pm

#126 Doug Rowat on 03.11.18 at 3:08 pm
#118 Stan Brooks on 03.11.18 at 2:15 pm
the greater the winning steak is in red the more improbable is for it co continue.
So you are ignoring the statistics.
Bad, bad idea.

You can only affect the odds if you’re willing to commit to a series of wagers and, in particular, to vary your bets based on the betting of others.

But, if you’re betting once on the next spin, the outcome is not influenced in any way by the results of past spins.

If you believe differently, Vegas awaits you with open arms.

–Doug
**********************************
Exactly Doug.
The only way to “beat” the casino at roulette is to bet an ever increasing amount on each spin until you win.
100 bet on black, lose
300 bet on black, lose
500 bet on black, lose
1000 bet on black, lose
2,000 bet on black, lose
4,000 bet on black, lose
8,000 bet on black, lose
16,000 bet on black, lose
etc.
Always betting $100 more than your total losses until you win. Eventually you will win, and make $100 profit.

However this is why they have table limits on roulette, and generally a table that will allow a $100 bet will not allow anything over 10K, meaning every time a streak of 7 reds happens you will lose $15,900, and every time that there are fewer than 7 reds in a row, you will win a paltry $100.
Many tables have 100-1000 limits meaning the casino crushes you every time there is a red streak over 4, costing you $1,900.

Also, don’t forget that nasty little “0” on the wheel where the house makes its money. There are 37 numbers counting the zero, so your odds are actually 18:19, not 50:50

#132 Blackdog on 03.11.18 at 3:54 pm

@Russ re: “The procedure is not quite clear.
Can we assume the scotch is for Alpha Dog, after soaking the poor affected critter?”

I wondered that myself. Had no soda or scotch so substituted coke and rum, for me, not the pooch.

@Grey Dog and Penny Henny, thanks for the advice. Sent the kids out for hydrogen peroxide and baking soda(had too many rum and cokes to drive) and tried that on dog last night. She’s still a bit stinky this morning but not nearly as bad. Went to Pet smart today and bought some Miracle Skunk Odor remover. Cleaned the dog with it, sprayed it all over the house and am washing laundry with it. Will wash dog again with it later today after she (and I) recuperate a bit.

#133 Capt. Serious on 03.11.18 at 4:20 pm

I dunno, is Ford going to be able to reel in Ontario’s debt? I’m far from certain of that.

#134 conan on 03.11.18 at 4:35 pm

Who wins the Ontario election now that DF is at the PC helm?

#135 earthboundmisfit on 03.11.18 at 4:46 pm

Been skunked? Hydrogen peroxide and Dawn dish detergent. Like a charm.

#136 Tony on 03.11.18 at 4:46 pm

Re: #97 AK on 03.11.18 at 10:55 am

Yup, at some point in time the shysters will fail with their propping up of the bond market every business day at 9:30am.

#137 Penny Henny on 03.11.18 at 4:46 pm

#132 Blackdog on 03.11.18 at 3:54 pm
@Russ re: “The procedure is not quite clear.
Can we assume the scotch is for Alpha Dog, after soaking the poor affected critter?”

I wondered that myself. Had no soda or scotch so substituted coke and rum, for me, not the pooch.

@Grey Dog and Penny Henny, thanks for the advice. Sent the kids out for hydrogen peroxide and baking soda(had too many rum and cokes to drive) and tried that on dog last night. She’s still a bit stinky this morning but not nearly as bad. Went to Pet smart today and bought some Miracle Skunk Odor remover. Cleaned the dog with it, sprayed it all over the house and am washing laundry with it. Will wash dog again with it later today after she (and I) recuperate a bit.
/////////////////

The funny part is even if you think the smell is gone, it’s not. You are just ‘noseblind’.
Try going out to a confined area in public (like a restaurant or bar) you think the stink is gone but every else will easily smell it on you.
Or they might think you just smoked up ;)

#138 Skunk Smell on 03.11.18 at 4:53 pm

There is an old method that always worked if the dog danced the tango with a skunk. You wash the dog down with tomato juice and rinse it off using water.

#139 Gravy Train on 03.11.18 at 5:30 pm

#126 Doug Rowat on 03.11.18 at 3:08 pm
…[I]f you’re betting once on the next spin, the outcome is not influenced in any way by the results of past spins. If you believe differently, Vegas awaits you with open arms.

Correct. (I agree with that, Doug.)

However, when the wheel hit black a dozen times in a row a statistician in the crowd would have walked away from the wheel! Why? Because she would have tested and rejected the null hypothesis (at, say, a 99% confidence level) that the wheel was not rigged. Do you not agree, Doug? :)

#140 Blackdog on 03.11.18 at 6:41 pm

@PennyHenny, re: “The funny part is even if you think the smell is gone, it’s not. You are just ‘noseblind’.
Try going out to a confined area in public (like a restaurant or bar) you think the stink is gone but every else will easily smell it on you.
Or they might think you just smoked up ;) ”

In other words, I smell the same as usual. ;) Last night after kids (adult age) went to bed, lit a joint in the basement, figured they wouldn’t know the difference anyway since the whole house already smelled like skunk. Actually though, pot smells WAY nicer. Can’t quite figure out why I like that smell so much, but gag at the ‘real’ skunk smell.

#141 Potato on 03.12.18 at 11:12 am

#124 AlMac on 03.11.18 at 2:58 pm
I have a balanced and diversified basket of etfs pretty much following the advice provided here and by other sources in Canada. I have a couple of questions that I have not found answers to yet, and perhaps those on here have some insight.

Why does the current advice stipulate holding a substantial percent of the portfolio in Canadian equities? If I lived in the UK or Germany for example, I doubt the advice there would be to hold a high percent of Canadian equities. Does the advice we are given here have a Canadian bias?

Another question is, to hold a truly diversified portfolio, should we not purchase equities on the foreign exchanges themselves rather than on the tsx that tracks those markets? I ask because the Canadian and foreign based equity etf trends on the tsx appear to be highly correlated, as seen by the recent sharp short term declines in February and subsequent rebound. What am I missing?
___________________________________________

I’d also greatly appreciate an answer to this question if anyone more knowledgeable has one.

#142 grmp0vgt on 03.12.18 at 4:41 pm

Excellent post Doug. Now please apply the same reasoning to previous posts about technical analysis. All you need to do is replace “streak length” with N-day moving average.

“The likelihood of this economic expansion ending isn’t increased or decreased by the N-day moving averages that have come before it.”

#143 Don't Believe The Hype on 03.13.18 at 1:55 pm

Doug,
What you wrote here is probably one of the top 5 articles ever written on this blog. Thank you for the reminder to look at the current and expected economic condition(s) on their own merits.
There is soooo much noise out there regarding the imminent fall of the markets from “all-time highs”.
Keep up the great work.