How hard can it be?

If you missed it, here’s the big jobs news. In the US a surge as more than three hundred thousand positions added last month, but wages did not swell much. The stock market loved that. Up she went 440 points.

Also greasing the increase was the Trumpster-Rocket Man summit now planned for May, which means there’s reason once again to have puppies and children (in that order). No fire and fury. No nukes. Just hugs. Since holocausts and Armageddons are bad for corporate profits, this is progress.

In Canada, more job gains after that disaster last month. The unemployment rate dipped a little, but at the same time almost 40,000 full-time workers lost their paycheques while 54,700 part-time positions were created. Meanwhile the dollar ticked a little higher on confirmation from the protectionist White House that Canada will be exempted from the fat tariffs on imported metals that Trump signed into law Thursday afternoon. Hamilton is safe.

Whazzit mean?

Simple. Central bankers in both countries will do exactly what they were planning in 2018, and that is to continue increasing rates in a gradual and relentless fashion. Markets give overwhelming odds that the Fed will pop the week after next, with our guys following on Wednesday, April 18th. The prime rate will then be 3.7% at the big banks, with the minimum mortgage stress test rate rising to 5.39%.

Yes, you’re right. Smack in the middle of rutting season, when house lust hormones rage, traditionally resulting in a surge of listings, sales and prices. The contrast this year with spring of 2017 is likely to be extreme. Hallelujah. A year ago we were nuts.

This blog reported last March:

All you need to know about how Toronto real estate happened last Saturday. Fifteen thousand people packed a tacky seminar on how to get rich buying property. Yes, in Toronto – now one of the most inflated, bubbly, frothy, horny housing markets on the planet, where prices rose 27% in a year and, according to Tony Robbins, they can never go down.

Robbins, of course, is a motivational speaker who knows diddly about Toronto real estate. The same with some dude named Pitbull. He spoke, too. And the kid realtor who hosts “Love it or List It” in Vancouver. And did I mention there were 15,000 others? They all paid between $50 and $150 for a seat, so the organizers made millions – which went to Robbins, the doggy guy et al.

The event was a ‘real estate wealth expo’, not aimed at helping people buy a home to live in, but full of encouragement to borrow massively and – as soon as possible – grab real estate as an investment. No money down. Rent it out. Watch it soar. How hard can that be?

Oh wait…

Apparently the insanity ain’t over. This time around organizers of a repeat event expect another 15,000 people to come to a Toronto seminar featuring a fading film star (Sylvester Stallone), some former baseball guy (A-Rod), Pitbull (huh?) and a totally smoking real estate agent named Jin. But there’s a big difference in 2018 – it’s now called the “Real Estate, Bitcoin and Wealth Expo.” Hey, two looming financial disasters for the price of one!

So what do seminar organizers, condo developers, real estate agents and reality TV show producers know that this blog’s apparently never learned? Simple. People believe what they want to believe. Alternative facts are better than real ones. Human nature never changes. Greed and fear motivate. Celebrity sells. And we’re a nation of needy, gullible financial illiterates.

Despite all the headwinds – rising rates, sticky prices, stress tests, choking debt and punitive taxes – people will continue to buy houses even when they cannot afford to. The market will stagger along until it stops, when the last ones in will be truly pooched.

The advice here is a copy of that twelve months ago. If you made money on real estate that you don’t wish to lose, sell. If you want to buy, wait. If you have urges of any kind then, for the love of God, stay away from the Metro Toronto Convention Centre on April 7th.

145 comments ↓

#1 For those about to flop... on 03.09.18 at 5:32 pm

CONFIRMED PINK SNOW.

I noticed a while ago some of the attempted flips at 1151 w Georgia Street ,also known as Trump Tower,weren’t going so well and so while they had a bit of wiggle room at the time I decided to follow one to see what the end result was.

The details…

5305-1151 w Georgia st,Vancouver.

Paid 2.4 February 2015

Sold 2.43 January 2018 ( deal was done on December 5th 2017)

And so they bought it before completion and held it for the best part of 3 years and got 30k more than they paid,but by the time we add in known expenses and a little for opportunities lost during that time period it is plausible that they are roughly 250k worse off after this experience.

You can see some of the price history below,originally asking 2.78, so they were never going to strike it rich on this unit alone, and I guess we will never know how many other units they possibly had.

There are currently 8 other units for sale in this building.

Maybe someone else will polish this rough rock I presented to the Congress Of The Comments Section…

M43BC

Sold for 2.43 on December 5th 2017
5305 1151 W Georgia Street, Vancouver paid 2.4 February 2015 ass 2.54

Mar 17:$2,780,000
Jun 21: $2,680,000
Change: – 100000.00 -4%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1151-w-georgia-street/5305

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/RDAwMDExMEI1RQ==

#2 Stan Brooks on 03.09.18 at 5:35 pm

Real Estate, Bitcoin and Wealth Expo

Featuring a fading film star (Sylvester Stallone), some former baseball guy (A-Rod), Pitbull (huh?) and a totally smoking real estate agent named Jin.

Bhahahahahahahaha.

So intellectual and in line with the GTA reality.
Now I understand why Smoking Man drinks so much.
You either have to be drunk or crazy to be constantly in touch with this insanity.

#3 Peter Pan on 03.09.18 at 5:38 pm

The revenue generated from tickets alone is over 1.5M. Brilliant idea!

#4 Lopez on 03.09.18 at 5:42 pm

I love Rocky IV – it was so awesome to see our American boy kick ass and trash the Ruski. Pelmeny!
Rambo III was awesome too, the destructive power of an American anti aircraft gun hand held by SLY! Just Awesome POWER! And the enemies were just trashed again. Man, the 80s…I miss Regan…

#5 Free bird on 03.09.18 at 5:42 pm

Garth, it’s funny, but not. Thx for the Friday laugh. The girl holding the sign is prob going to the wealth expo.

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.18 at 5:43 pm

“we’re a nation of needy, gullible financial illiterates….”
++++++++

Pretty much sums up whats wrong.

#7 Out on 03.09.18 at 5:46 pm

We lived within our means for 14 years, never took expensive vacation or traded up our house. We paid the house off recently and as we looked into the future, we saw uncertainty, so we sold our house in Calgary and moved to a small town in BC.

Took on a job working less hours, making less money BUT spending more time outdoors and with family and friends. No regrets. Cash is with a wealth advisor in a balanced and diversified portfolio. Renting is not perfect, but neither is owning. Going forward the moderate returns off my investments exceed my paycheque and I can retire whenever I want. Live within your means…best wealth creation strategy ever. Unfortunately they don’t teach that at expo’s or even schools anymore…

#8 Other People on 03.09.18 at 5:49 pm

Ugh, this is so wrong, on so many levels.

From the expo’s website:

Use other people’s money to fund YOUR deals. Get Pre-Approved for Real Estate funding regardless of your credit score.

So, you gambled all your money away, banks won’t touch you. So what, squander other people’s money now.

The organizers and presenters clearly have no shame.

#9 Nonplused on 03.09.18 at 5:52 pm

I wouldn’t price Armageddon out of the market just yet. The problem is that if Trump doesn’t get his nuclear free Korea then he more or less will have to let the bombs fly to save face. So it’s way to early yet to start booking a vacation this summer.

Also, this move frees up the forces for the planned invasion of Iran, which is going to be just as much of a mess as Korea would have been even if they don’t have any nukes. There are plenty of economically important facilities within range that don’t need a nuke to disable. If you look at the structure of the Iranian armed forces, it is clear that they are designed around causing as much havoc in the region as possible in the event of war but they lack the capacity to actually invade anyone. They are actually set up quite a bit like North Korea. As soon as the first bomb gets dropped on Tehran a barrage of missiles will be fired at oil refineries and ports across the region. I imagine the nuclear reactor at Diachi will also be a target so I hope they’ve had the good sense to shut it down in advance.

#10 New West on 03.09.18 at 5:53 pm

Just had a co-worker come into my office furious with the BC provincial government. Apparently she and her husband “can’t sell their house because of the NDP”. It was listed a month ago (Capitol Hill in Burnaby, a nice view, older house recently renovated) and they have had one person view it. No offer. Their real estate agent told them there are over 40 houses listed for sale in their area, none of them moving.

I asked her if they are thinking of lowering the price. You know what came next – an indignant “We aren’t going to give it away!” When I asked her why the NDP are responsible for the house not selling she explained that people from Alberta aren’t allowed to buy in BC any more, so all those prairie retirees are no longer paying huge premiums for houses in Burnaby. I then made the mistake of pointing out that even if they lowered the price they would still be way ahead as they bought 10 years ago and have it paid off. That did not go down well and the conversation ended shortly after that.

She and her husband have a place on the Gulf Islands that they want to retire to. Both are in their mid-60s.

I can see I’m going to have to lay low on the real estate advice from now on. Spring should be interesting.

#11 Mark on 03.09.18 at 5:58 pm

“The details…
5305-1151 w Georgia st,Vancouver.
Paid 2.4 February 2015
Sold 2.43 January 2018 ( deal was done on December 5th 2017)”

Sounds about right. Stagnation in identical Vancouver RE in the post-2013 peak era.

#12 Scared Canadian Millenial on 03.09.18 at 6:00 pm

Should we sell our Loonies for greenbacks and Elizabeths?

#13 MF on 03.09.18 at 6:03 pm

“If you made money on real estate that you don’t wish to lose, sell. If you want to buy, wait.”

-I wonder if the green light to buy RE will actually come from this blog one day?

We had green lights for the oil collapse and commodity rut of 2015 down to the day, almost hour.

We had green lights after the dust settled on “corrections” in 2011, 2015, 2018, Brexit and Greece. Timed perfectly.

We had green lights for properties in the US in 2009, 2010, and to buy US dollars when they were cheap.

It’s bound to happen some day, I guess..but could be years from now.

MF

#14 TheDood on 03.09.18 at 6:07 pm

#7 New West on 03.09.18 at 5:53 pm

“…..I asked her if they are thinking of lowering the price. You know what came next – an indignant “We aren’t going to give it away!……….
……She and her husband have a place on the Gulf Islands that they want to retire to. Both are in their mid-60s.”
_______________________________

So let Mrs. Smarty Pants and her Dumbo husband sit on the property until the market comes back. Maybe they can retire in their mid-80’s!

#15 Oakville Sucks on 03.09.18 at 6:09 pm

I remember The Wealth Expo posters all over Toronto last year. What a joke especially when Most of the hosts didn’t make their wealth from property purchases!

#16 Jimmy on 03.09.18 at 6:11 pm

Speaking of Stallone…
Big plans for the evening.
I have borrowed from the library:
Rocky
Rocky III
And Rocky IV.

Why they don’t have II and IV I do not know.

Mostly to hear Eye of the Tiger and see Mr T.

#17 MF on 03.09.18 at 6:14 pm

#9 Nonplused on 03.09.18 at 5:52 pm

Zero chance of any of that happening. Iran will cook from the inside out. We all know its just a matter of time until there is massive numbers of people marching in the street for change. Young Iranians are too smart to be fooled forever.

What will happen though is the same old script, where the Iranian government diverts attention from itself or Syria/Iraq by continuing to heavily arm terrorist groups Hezbollah and Hamas. They will then try to get both groups to start a conflict with Israel, throwing the Palestinians under the bus yet again, and also try to draw a wedge between Israel and its positive relationship with its Arab neighbours (who are Iranian enemies).

Rinse repeat.

MF

#18 IHCTD9 on 03.09.18 at 6:16 pm

“And we’re a nation of needy, gullible financial illiterates.“
—————-

We’re idiots.

#19 IHCTD9 on 03.09.18 at 6:18 pm

“Apparently the insanity ain’t over. This time around organizers of a repeat event expect another 15,000 people to come to a Toronto seminar featuring a fading film star (Sylvester Stallone), some former baseball guy (A-Rod), Pitbull (huh?) and a totally smoking real estate agent named Jin. But there’s a big difference in 2018 – it’s now called the “Real Estate, Bitcoin and Wealth Expo.” Hey, two looming financial disasters for the price of one!”

———

That’s it, I’m building that bunker.

#20 AGuyInVancouver on 03.09.18 at 6:20 pm

This piece in today’s Globe & Mail ties in very nicely with the theme of today’s blog:

British Columbia’s addiction to real estate has created a job sector that’s ballooned over the past decade, with real estate jobs growing 53 per cent in the Lower Mainland.

In the province, full-time jobs related to real estate have grown 39 per cent in that time span. Those jobs don’t include construction jobs, which grew in the Lower Mainland by 27 per cent from 2007 to 2017, according to Stats Can data…
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/bcs-real-estate-boom-a-boon-for-job-seekers/article38220961/

Sorry it’s behind their paywall.

#21 pathcontrolmonk on 03.09.18 at 6:20 pm

Kim Jong Un will undoubtedly do something wacky, Trump will be humiliated, and we will still get Armageddon. For reference, feel free to read the account of Albright visiting the DPRK.

#22 IHCTD9 on 03.09.18 at 6:21 pm

Anyone seen the previews to “Alpha”?

Looks pretty good, I’ll be going even though I have never owned a pooch.

#23 mark on 03.09.18 at 6:22 pm

Adrian! Adriaaaaaaaaan! Buy me some bitcoin!

#24 Reality is stark on 03.09.18 at 6:25 pm

If you think things are bad now wait until you see what new Canadian policies will bring with our newly elected politicians.
They want fully subsidized post secondary education, fully subsidized day care, free dental care, free psychological counseling, free prescription drugs and free long term care. Canadians honestly believe that policies mirroring Venezuelan policies will work out differently here.
This is not a joke. Most Canadians have absolutely no clue whatsoever how Venezuela got to where it is today.

#25 Tony on 03.09.18 at 6:26 pm

Yo Adrian….let’s buy a house.

#26 the ryguy on 03.09.18 at 6:29 pm

#17 MF on 03.09.18 at 6:14 pm
—————————————

Agreed. Prince Salman is a smart dude and he seems intent on cleaning up the region. “the purge” was one of the greatest political strategies Ive ever seen..its been fascinating watching it play out.

#27 SoggyShorts on 03.09.18 at 6:29 pm

RE stallone: Why?
The guy is worth 400m
The tickets that are on sale for $50 a seat, so taking a guess at his share, what is ~200K to him?

The equivalent is someone with a NW of 1m getting paid $500.

Granted I wouldn’t turn down $500, but it’s not really the same is it? 400m is already “F- you” money, and he makes 15m when he does his job. Is flogging real estate and bitcoin really fun?

#28 IHCTD9 on 03.09.18 at 6:33 pm

#13 MF on 03.09.18 at 6:03 pm
“If you made money on real estate that you don’t wish to lose, sell. If you want to buy, wait.”

-I wonder if the green light to buy RE will actually come from this blog one day

———-

Historically, decent Toronto sfd’s go for roughly 2-2.5X what they do out my way. So if you see 700–900K sfd’s out there, that would be a green light. Never been less than double since I’ve been watching it (late 90’s).

Still seems pretty expensive to me though.

But 280K and up seemed pretty expensive back then too.

#29 Flat Earth Society on 03.09.18 at 6:35 pm

Mr. Twinkle Socks was in the news saying what Canadian really want is not jobs, not affordable housing, not better finances, not health care, but the #1 priority is to increase immigration! And not by a little, by a lotle! Up to 450,000 people a year! That would result in a 25% increase in the population by 2038! From 35 million to some 44 million in 20 years!
Where would all these people get jobs? How could the current citizens compete? Are we going to be able to build housing that fast? Oh and hold on to your real estate we are going to need to find a place to put all those people. And it’s going to have to be mostly in Toronto and Vancouver because nobody wants to live anywhere else. In that light maybe the property prices in Toronto and Vancouver aren’t so outlandish after all, those 2 cities are set to double in population in 20 years. Simply astounding!

Twinkle Socks thinks he can sell this proposed population explosion as a humanitarian effort but it’s not, what happened is some actuary pointed out that the only way to save CPP and OAS long term is to inject a lot more people into the economy. But the problem with actuaries is that they make too many assumptions. CPP won’t be saved if the job market is crushed by out of control unemployment. What they are doing is assuming if you inject another employee, the economy will magically create another job. It doesn’t work that way. The only reason Canada is as wealthy as it is is because we have resources and we sell them to the US. Adding more people in Canada isn’t going to make that equation any better. And governments across Canada (except perhaps Saskatchewan and Manitoba, which seem to be the only 2 that haven’t lost their minds) are doing everything they can to disrupt that trade.

Not only is this proposed population influx going to give Canada a third world style population explosion, it’s also going to give Canada third world style wages.

Economic production can be thought of as 3 main activities: Primary being digging something out of the ground or growing it, secondary being making those materials into something useful, and tertiary being the services that accompany those activities like hair stylists and paper shufflers. Automation has been for a long time impacting all of those activities except perhaps the hair stylist. The economy does not need more people to grow anymore! In almost all cases it is more economic to automate.

There was a time when most of the population lived rural and farming was a big part of the economy. Then came the tractors and most of the population moved to the city and got a job in a factory. Then came the robots and most of the workers moved into an office tower to shuffle paper. Then came the computers and there is no where left to go. The world only needs so many hair stylists and yoga instructors.

So what Twinkle Socks in his Bollywood costume is going to do is create massive unemployment and lost more people (9 million of them!) on EI and welfare just as CPP and OAS are collapsing. Brilliant! But this is what happens when you elect a substitute drama teacher as head of state. You get a lot of pretend. In theater, it is the story that matters, not the facts.

#30 Penny Henny on 03.09.18 at 6:40 pm

If you missed it, here’s the big jobs news. In the US a surge as more than three hundred thousand positions added last month, but wages did not swell much. The stock market loved that. Up she went 440 points.-GT

But our dollar went up today :)

#31 Penny Henny on 03.09.18 at 6:44 pm

But there’s a big difference in 2018 – it’s now called the “Real Estate, Bitcoin and Wealth Expo.”-GT

No love for the MJ stocks?

#32 Bob Dog on 03.09.18 at 6:51 pm

$1,743,000 in Vancouver BC where people are poor.

https://www.rew.ca/properties/R2245206/4766-knight-street-vancouver-bc

$1,195,000 in Redmond Washington where people are rich.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/16422-NE-50TH-St-Redmond-WA-98052/48952300_zpid/?fullpage=true

Pretty strong evidence that the Government of Canada is a terrorist organization.

#33 Trumpocalypse2018 on 03.09.18 at 6:54 pm

6 Days to the Ides of March !!!!!!

Do not be misled, The NK stuff is a false flag for fake peace. Kim Jong Un has completed the critical missile tests, everything is ready to go, all the way to NYC and Washington. That is why he’s trying to dupe Trump now.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/mar/7/only-fools-believe-north-korea/

And it is working.

And hardly anyone is looking at what is about to erupt from Iran.

Catastrophe dead ahead.

PREPARE

#34 acdel on 03.09.18 at 6:56 pm

I cannot stop laughing at today’s picture. She’s playing it (I hope) but dam funny!

Good blog Garth but hell if I lived in T.O. I would be tempted to pay (not for the sales pitch) but just to see Sly make the pitch! :) Adrian!!

#35 DON on 03.09.18 at 6:56 pm

I asked her if they are thinking of lowering the price. You know what came next – an indignant “We aren’t going to give it away!” When I asked her why the NDP are responsible for the house not selling she explained that people from Alberta aren’t allowed to buy in BC any more, so all those prairie retirees are no longer paying huge premiums for houses in Burnaby. I then made the mistake of pointing out that even if they lowered the price they would still be way ahead as they bought 10 years ago and have it paid off. That did not go down well and the conversation ended shortly after that.

She and her husband have a place on the Gulf Islands that they want to retire to. Both are in their mid-60s.

************************
That lady suffers from Cognitive Dissonance. Why didnt she list last year…I betcha it was convenient for her at the time and she believed (even with all her life experience) that this was the new normal. Please tell me, she is not in charge of any Millenials or else we are doomed.

Fun fact: Retiring to an island with no amenities or more importantly medical amenities all year round is a short term gig for the big city folks.

Hornby Island – was over run about 15 years ago with retirees, now not so much now. Living on a small island is harder than most people think. Most are vacating, but who can buy on an island that lacks water in the summer at trendy city prices. (when I was a kid this is where the hippys lived and those who wanted to live of the grid).

I hate to be realistic but an economy built on retirement is only sustainable for a short period of time. I was talking to the owners of a grocery chain (heavy retirement locations) and guess what… retirees don’t eat as much as younger families and sales are down. The owners were hoping for a return of families to their locations. Only problem is…most families can no longer afford houses in those communities. The owners recently sold the chain. Good for them…too bad as they supported all the communities on family day etc. Family day in my hometown is parse. Lots of houses everywhere but hardly anyone outside in their yards or walking around.

#36 Guy in Calgary on 03.09.18 at 6:57 pm

That is the most random lineup regardless of the expo. We have a crappy musician, a steroid pumping athlete, a washed up actor and 2 business people. What do they all have in common?

I have no idea but a part of me wishes I could go for the Q&A period.

#37 New West on 03.09.18 at 6:58 pm

#14 TheDood

There’s going to be so much disbelief and denial here in the Lower Mainland as no one thinks that the price of real estate can do anything but go up. That will keep house prices sticky for years.

Most people in BC have no experience of house prices ever going down, so the recency bias is strong.
I expect lots of people will stay put, waiting for the market to pick up. And waiting, and waiting…..

#38 DON on 03.09.18 at 7:03 pm

#17 MF on 03.09.18 at 6:14 pm

#9 Nonplused on 03.09.18 at 5:52 pm

Zero chance of any of that happening. Iran will cook from the inside out. We all know its just a matter of time until there is massive numbers of people marching in the street for change. Young Iranians are too smart to be fooled forever.

What will happen though is the same old script, where the Iranian government diverts attention from itself or Syria/Iraq by continuing to heavily arm terrorist groups Hezbollah and Hamas. They will then try to get both groups to start a conflict with Israel, throwing the Palestinians under the bus yet again, and also try to draw a wedge between Israel and its positive relationship with its Arab neighbours (who are Iranian enemies).

Rinse repeat.

MF
*************************

Iranians marching in the street…didn’t that just happen maybe more to come and maybe not. The US has lost it luster to a certain extent in the international community.

The US pointed it cyber abilities right in Iran’s nose and Iran pointed back. Now Iran has a large cyber military.

#39 Leo Trollstoy on 03.09.18 at 7:06 pm

The advice here is a copy of that twelve months ago. If you made money on real estate that you don’t wish to lose, sell. If you want to buy, wait. – Garth

I agree w Garth. Best time to have sold real estate in Toronto and Vancouver was 12 months ago in 2017

Good on everybody who did it

#40 Smartalox on 03.09.18 at 7:11 pm

@ New West #10:

If you really want to torment your co-worker, get her to think about selling the place in the Gulf Islands.

THAT’s where the wealthy Albertan retirees want to buy! My mother in law, a retired University worker from AB, and her now ex-husband, had a place in the gulf islands for a number of years. All their neighbours were ‘foreigners’ as well – some from AB, some Ontario, many from the US and some from Europe, owning vacation properties in the Salish Sea.

Several of them have already cashed out, my MIL when she divorced a few (three?) years ago. The whole experience was grim – the only saving grace was that they spent so much on their house they built there, in the 6 or 7 years that they owned it, despite the gains in that time.

Another source of tension was the higher taxes my MIL and her husband paid for their ‘vacation home’, compared to another friend from AB that moved to the Islands outright.

The only property in Burnaby that Albertans should be buying are those homes built over top of and adjacent to the Kinder Morgan pipeline, to guarantee access for their exports. Maybe the Feds can negotiate an ‘easement’ or cede that land permanently to Alberta, sort of the way the Vimy memorial in France has been decreed Canadian soil.

#41 Game Over on 03.09.18 at 7:11 pm

@ #9 Nonplused

Well this piece in the financial post goes along with what you are saying. Trumps Steel tariffs are designed to shore up steel and aluminum capacity in the U.S. in preparation for war.

https://www.google.ca/amp/business.financialpost.com/opinion/lawrence-solomon-the-real-reason-for-trumps-steel-tariffs-hes-preparing-for-war/amp

#42 Nonplused on 03.09.18 at 7:13 pm

#17 MF

There is an old saying in theater that goes “If there is a gun on the wall in the first act, it must be used by the third act”.

About the last thing we want is for the Iranian regime to become destabilized, either from outside or within, as a dog backed into a corner tends to bite. The same could be said of Israel as well, although I don’t think there is any internal pressure there other than the Palestinian issue.

Leaders the world over saw what happened in Afghanistan, then Iraq, and then Libya. They all now know you have about 24 hours from the start of hostilities (or if it’s going nuclear about 15 minutes) to make your point.

This is what is so worrying about Putin’s announcement of Russia’s new weaponry, specifically ABM dodging missiles and nuclear drones. I mean it was all electioneering, the audience was local I am sure the US was well aware Russia had been working on them ever since the US pulled out of the ABM treaty. Putin did a good job of blaming it all on the US, but it wasn’t necessary.

According to Putin, by pulling out of the treaty and deploying some now probably 400 anti-ballistic missile defenses around Russia, the US has been over the last 16 years been trying to circumvent MAD (mutually assured destruction), which is a crazy way to keep the peace but it’s worked for 70 years. It can kind of be put in personal terms as this: If your neighbor has a gun and you think he wants to kill you, you need a gun too.

So what Putin (and it isn’t just him, he’s just the flag bearer, it should be thought of as all of Russia) has done, is revealed that they have spent the last 16 years since the abrogation of the ABM treaty building weapons that can evade US ABM technology, thereby restoring MAD. It was smart to do, you wouldn’t want a scenario like from the movie Dr. Strangelove where the US decided to go ahead with an attack on the USSR unaware that they had recently completed an operational doomsday machine.

Of course it could all be a bluff. But why does he feel he needs to bluff? And he’s bluffing big. He’s basically said that a world where Russia is destroyed he cares not whether the rest of the world continues to exist. Or more that if Russia is destroyed the rest of the world doesn’t deserve to exist.

These are not fun times and everyone is worried about the price of a house in Vancouver. It might not even be there in a year.

#43 For those about to flop... on 03.09.18 at 7:15 pm

#11 Mark on 03.09.18 at 5:58 pm
“The details…
5305-1151 w Georgia st,Vancouver.
Paid 2.4 February 2015
Sold 2.43 January 2018 ( deal was done on December 5th 2017)”

Sounds about right. Stagnation in identical Vancouver RE in the post-2013 peak era.

///////////////////

Don’t do that.

I don’t want my study into what is going on in Vancouver real estate to be used to support your often written ,but never proven theory that Vancouver real estate peaked in 2013.

I am after the truth,no matter how ugly it is…

M43BC

#44 Smartalox on 03.09.18 at 7:15 pm

As for the woman holding the sign in the picture, it’s a pretty smart tactic to have a few ‘joke’ signs in the crowd at any protest.

It draws the eyes of the onlookers to read the legitimate protests on each and every sign, just so that they can find the single sign worth laughing at.

Really helps to get the message across.

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.18 at 7:17 pm

Stallone.
Reminds me of about twenty years ago.
Stallone was in Vancouver filming a movie( Get Carter).
I was working in a downtown office building.
I needed a break so I went down to the loading bay and stood in the alley just people watching.
About 50 ft away is a parked limo.
No big deal. See them all the time.
back door opens.
Stallone gets out to stretch.
He glances around and see’s me staring at him.
I nod.
He glares back at me.
So I glared back at him.
Stare down.
With Sly Stallone.
I’m thinking ” I’m in a stare down with Sylvester Stallone and NOBODY is here to see it!”
I refuse to look away.
60 seconds we’re just beaming each other.
He quits first!
Leans into the limo and says something.
A HUGE bodyguard gets out and walks over and says, ” Mr Stallone doesnt like to be looked at”
WTF?
“Well, its a free country and I’m not breaking any laws”.
Mr Bodyguard smiles and walks back over to Sly, they have a few words.
Stallone gets back into the limo.

Stallone doesnt like to be stared at eh?
I went back into the office and told everyone, “Hey, Stallone is down in the alley in a limo and he just said hello to me”
My co-workers?
Stampede for the exit

#46 Doug t on 03.09.18 at 7:21 pm

If you bought a ticket for this event you are an idiot – period

RATM

#47 Smartalox on 03.09.18 at 7:33 pm

One more thought on NK and Kim Jong-Un’s invitation to have Trump come for a meeting:

Apparently, once the South Korean delegation sat down the North Korean leader and his team, the party was plied with food and drink continuously until everyone was tipsy enough to think that this was a good idea.

One can only think that this ‘negotiation technique’ will be in use when the two leader meet, but it may not go down so well. You see, Trump doesn’t drink, and HATES people who do, especially if they drink to drunkenness (sorry, Smoking Man).

If this turns out to be the case, Trump’s instinct will be to ‘best’ his rival, to embarrass him, and his drunken foolery, not join the party in the name of statesmanship and conviviality. That won’t turn out well.

Or maybe it will: my brother in law works for a large Canadian engineering firm. Back in the early 2000s, he was assisting his boss with negotiations on a large mining project in Mongolia. As was the local custom, booze and smokes accompanied all negotiations, and the local leadership could pause the negotiations at any time, and demand that you drain your glass (of liquor), which was immediately refilled.

My brother’s boss was a non-drinker, so while my brother ‘negotiated’ with the rest of the local leadership, drinking like a fish and smoking like a chimney, his boss stayed sober and studied the fine print on the agreements, much to their advantage.

‘GANBEI!’

#48 Hiding On the Backstreets on 03.09.18 at 7:34 pm

House 2 doors down in Olde Stoney Creek, East Hamilton, almost the same as mine, went for sale this week. Saw the sign on way to work Tuesday. Asking around maybe 10-20 Gs more than last year’s going rate (under $500 grand).

Sold in 2 days.

#49 When the Whip Comes Down on 03.09.18 at 7:34 pm

Cameron Muir from BCREA says prices up in BC this year and next, but only moderately. See, RE never goes down, EVER, according to the shills in the industry. A no lose asset class. I would love to see how they modeled out this conclusion. Or maybe its simply just a bold statement based on nothing.

#50 Nonplused on 03.09.18 at 7:37 pm

#38 Game Over

I can’t get that link to work maybe the NSA doesn’t like it?

But anyway if I get the jist of it, preparing for war today by increasing domestic manufacturing capacity is so old school. The war has to be decided in the first 48 hours, so it’s only the current stock of weapons that matters. You can build those in advance using imported materials.

#51 Nonplused on 03.09.18 at 7:38 pm

#44 Smartalox

Photoshop. It’s still funny, but it’s Photoshop.

#52 Hiding On the Backstreets on 03.09.18 at 7:42 pm

Three other houses close by, a couple backstreets away, sold in February. On market maybe a week or two, tops.

Respectable neighbourhood of $440 – 460 grand. I guess the price is right for families that can’t afford ridiculous new cheaply made cookie cutters in bland suburbs. (My ‘hood was built in the 1950s; lots of character – and characters).

I was about to list in March last year for $430; agent told me that I might get a ridiculous offer of over $500 grand, which I would have taken any day. The g-friend and I hit a roadblock when working out the moving-in-together details, though, so I stayed put.

Still with the g-friend, and all my stuff’s here anyway. Had to get rid of the cat though -she’s allergic. But I can send Garth some cat pics maybe?

#53 [email protected] on 03.09.18 at 7:42 pm

Jobs added? At full employment? That’s unpossible.

More enter the workforce monthly. – Garth

#54 Stealth on 03.09.18 at 7:43 pm

Garth,

When will you be hosting another event?
Last one I recall was 2012.

Thank you.

#55 Screwed Canadian Millenial on 03.09.18 at 7:49 pm

More enter the workforce monthly. – Garth

———

Which is exactly how the economy is supposed to work. The US has had ~4% unemployment for a while now, wages are going up and millions are streaming back into the labor force.

In Canada, it’s the opposite. The country is such a disaster that people are leaving the labor force. There are millions on the sidelines who will never jump back in because wages are garbage. Canada needs a tight labour market and higher wages. What happened to belief in capitalism Garth?

#56 Reynolds531 on 03.09.18 at 7:55 pm

Garth, I sincerely believe that you have a duty to get us all tickets to the follow up. And you should get a bus, that way we can be the drunken hecklers in the room.

#57 @careeraftschool on 03.09.18 at 8:05 pm

Stallone? In Rocky V, his character went bankrupt because his accountant invested all his money in real estate and the market tanked. His son went from private school to an inner city school, wife had to work in a pet store and he spent a lot of his time in a dive bar. Maybe he his the right speaker for the expo.

#58 Ken semotiuk on 03.09.18 at 8:08 pm

You can’t go wrong with more natural jobs, whatever it takes to get the millennials out of their parents basements?

#59 Yorkville Renter on 03.09.18 at 8:22 pm

tickets for said event have been slashed. from $149 to $49. buy a ticket now and you’re already winning!

#60 Damifino on 03.09.18 at 8:28 pm

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz

I was working in a downtown office building. I needed a break so I went down to the loading bay and stood in the alley just people watching.
———————————

Did you take the elevator?

#61 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.09.18 at 8:34 pm

Little Kim meets The Donald : Much ado about nothing. Head fake. Photo op. Buy time until nukes are operational. Net result will be zero change and Trump will look like an even bigger fool.

#62 ben on 03.09.18 at 8:39 pm

Stronger economy:

== rates up

== housing down

Because land prices are set by available credit, and are *not* indicative of a strong economy.

Some will only truly absorb this lesson after losing $100k. So be it.

#63 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.18 at 8:49 pm

Other People on 03.09.18 at 5:49 pm
The organizers and presenters clearly have no shame.
====================

Shame as an ethical concept wandered off in the 80’s and hasn’t been seen since.

Apparently its only meaning today concerns the socially acceptable size of body parts.

#64 Mark on 03.09.18 at 9:00 pm

“Don’t do that.
I don’t want my study into what is going on in Vancouver real estate to be used to support your often written ,but never proven theory that Vancouver real estate peaked in 2013.”

You got something against the truth? That 2013 was the peak of Canadian RE has been thoroughly proven. Your posts, although at a micro level, do significantly support the fact that there has been little to no gains on individual identical properties. A fact that is significantly supported by the deflationary forces in the Canadian economy and consumer behavior.

#65 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.09.18 at 9:01 pm

Another new issue of $10 bills has been announced. This time the bills will be vertically oriented like the Swiss and Israeli currencies. I’ll bet that those bills which are to become ‘valueless’ soon will be any that are of the old, horizontal, orientation. And I expect that, as with India, the $10 bill will soon be our largest denomination, with ‘cashless’ coming right on it’s heels.

#66 Mark on 03.09.18 at 9:05 pm

“I agree w Garth. Best time to have sold real estate in Toronto and Vancouver was 12 months ago in 2017”

Well you certainly didn’t gain or lose by selling in 2017 versus selling in 2013 for most of Canada since opportunity costs in other assets have been minimal (ie: gold has done nothing, the stock market has been stagnant, GICs and cash savings accounts have been comatose) and RE has been relatively flat on individual identical units (the Realtor average sales price numbers are heavily influenced by a dramatic shift to the mix, away from entry-level units, and towards higher-end luxury units due to the onslaught of new supply delivered!). But that situation is one that isn’t particularly likely to repeat for the next 5 years. Even the normalization of the sales mix as seen recently has been absolutely devastating to the Realtor average selling prices. Sales mix changes exaggerated the upside, and will probably also exaggerate the downside going forward (of course Realtors probably will start to use sales mix adjusted numbers when they can use them for marketing in their favour!).

#67 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.09.18 at 9:06 pm

Concerning North Korea, Kim would be well advised to not believe any promises made to him. Look at what happened to Saddam Hussein, Manuel Noriega, etc., all America’s great friends, for as long as it suited them.

#68 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.18 at 9:07 pm

“Even millennials are getting sick of Instagram.

More than half of users between the ages of 18 and 24 revealed they are “seeking relief from social media,” according to a survey.

The poll, taken in December, found that 34 percent of young users reported having deleted social-media accounts entirely. Forty-one percent of respondents said they waste too much time on social media, and 35 percent agreed that people their age are too distracted by their online lives.”

Few of us are old enough to remember the TV addiction of the 1950’s but it was much the same. The price of TV’s suddenly became affordable for a newly prosperous middle class. People were absolutely hooked. A social evening consisted of going to someone’s house and absorbing whatever crap was broadcast in total silence. After a couple of years the spell wore off and life resumed.

https://nypost.com/2018/03/07/millennials-are-starting-to-hate-social-media-too/

#69 TRUMP on 03.09.18 at 9:08 pm

The more things change the more they stay the same.

The TRUTH is …. It’s going to be pretty much exactly like how it’s always been.

#70 Linda on 03.09.18 at 9:09 pm

The upcoming TO event will likely draw in the truly delusional who will be milked by the folks organizing the event. Truly, there is ‘one born every minute’.

Speaking of money & fools, junk mail today had an offer from one of those ‘payday loan’ outfits. I promptly recycled & washed my fingers to make sure the taint was gone. I’m not quite sure what it says about the financial state of Canada that flyers like these exist, but fear that it is nothing good.

#71 Blobby on 03.09.18 at 9:11 pm

Quote “RE stallone: Why?
The guy is worth 400m”

If he was any good with money, why is he still working at his age? Maybe films are fun to make, but I can’t imagine sitting on a panel like this is much fun.

#72 Smoking Man on 03.09.18 at 9:12 pm

Re the expo.

There are those that can do. The ones can’t teach.
Don’t expect any appearances by yours truly at the next FX gathering.

No way I’m sharing the secret sause.

#73 Stone on 03.09.18 at 9:13 pm

#60 Damifino on 03.09.18 at 8:28 pm
#45 crowdedelevatorfartz

I was working in a downtown office building. I needed a break so I went down to the loading bay and stood in the alley just people watching.
———————————

Did you take the elevator?

———

More importantly, did anybody fart?

#74 Stone on 03.09.18 at 9:15 pm

In regards to the expo, why fix something that ain’t broke. People buy tickets. They make a ton of money. Good for them. Delusion sells.

#75 akashic record on 03.09.18 at 9:23 pm

These five are poor amateurs compared to the impact of the bank CEOs causing financial disaster in 2008 and in the coming second wave of their financial genius work.

#76 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.09.18 at 9:30 pm

“Statistics Canada’s latest labour force survey, released Friday, showed the country lost 39,300 full-time jobs and generated 54,700 part-time positions in February. It also found the job gains were driven by an increase of 50,300 in public-sector jobs.”

Personally, I wouldn’t count public-sector jobs. Hard to have a public sector when there’s no private sector left to pay their wages. Sounds like we lost 35,000 jobs in reality.

#77 For those about to flop... on 03.09.18 at 9:30 pm

#64 Mark on 03.09.18 at 9:00 pm
“Don’t do that.
I don’t want my study into what is going on in Vancouver real estate to be used to support your often written ,but never proven theory that Vancouver real estate peaked in 2013.”

You got something against the truth? That 2013 was the peak of Canadian RE has been thoroughly proven. Your posts, although at a micro level, do significantly support the fact that there has been little to no gains on individual identical properties. A fact that is significantly supported by the deflationary forces in the Canadian economy and consumer behavior.

/////////////////////

If you continue to make a mockery of my Pink Project ,I will hunt you down ,bend you over my knee ,and beat your ass with a Forbes magazine…

M43BC

#78 Blacksheep on 03.09.18 at 9:33 pm

Breaking: Global news just covered a savvy new business service offered to Van owner that are absent from their property. They rent them out and handle all facets for their owner / clients.

NDP clarifies, owners ONLY need to rent RE 6 months a year to avoid the new tax.

Hmm…..why does that sound so familiar.

Remember a few days back when I told you Trumps tariffs will be reduced or dropped and that its merely a negotiating tactic for NAFTA. All while the world was losing it’s shit over it. Before, Trump let Canada of the hook?

Watch what they do, not what they say…

#79 ImGonnaBeSick on 03.09.18 at 9:34 pm

All those jobs were likely for the $600,000 Ontario Cannabis Corp logo…

#80 Myra Andrews on 03.09.18 at 9:35 pm

Greater Vancouver Housing Stat posted originally by realtor PaulB

March 9 New 139 Sold 91 TI: 8510
March 8 New 196 Sold 118 TI: 8496
March 7 New 204 Sold 99 TI: 8442
March 6 New 246 Sold 130 TI: 8372
March 5 New 316 Sold 104 TI: 8344

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

#81 -=jwk=- on 03.09.18 at 9:35 pm

On Donald Trump’s threatened steel and aluminum tariffs, the Trudeau government has skilfully leveraged the network of contacts and allies built up over the past 18 months to secure Canada an exemption.
….
The prime minister called close Trump ally, Blackstone Group CEO Steve Schwartzman, while Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan held conversations with his American counterpart James Mattis, pointing out that far from being a national security threat, Canada supplies the U.S. with much of the aluminum used in its fighter jets….
That call is said to have been important because, while national security was viewed as a bargaining chip by Navarro and Ross, it is taken far more seriously by veterans like Mattis, who appreciate the military supply chain links with Canada….
The case for Canada was also made by former prime minister Brian Mulroney to his friend Ross, while Trudeau reached out to opponents of tariffs like Tom Donohue, the chief executive of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce; Mitch McConnell, the U.S. Senate Majority Leader, and Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives….However, the pivotal intervention seems to have been Trudeau’s call to Trump on Monday night. Trudeau told the president that he is planning to visit every steel town in Canada in the coming week, where he will reinforce the message that Canadian steel is made in Canada by Canadians…

In his press conference, Trump said he has “a feeling we’re going to make a deal on NAFTA”.

======================
Not bad for a drama teacher, or twinkle socks or whatever hes called these days. sometimes yelling and screaming isn’t the answer.

Full story:

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-trudeaus-call-to-trump-credited-with-securing-exemption-from-steel-tariff

#82 tccontrarian on 03.09.18 at 9:38 pm

“But there’s a big difference in 2018 – it’s now called the “Real Estate, Bitcoin and Wealth Expo.” Hey, two looming financial disasters for the price of one!” -GT
———————————————————

Now, if they’d also included marijuana (with free samples, of course), I’d definitely go!

TCC

#83 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.18 at 9:47 pm

There seems to be a lot of people who come here to complain about Canada. They’re already 28 and they still can’t afford a house in downtown Vancouver or Twinklesocks is making them pay too much tax yadda, yadda ad nauseam. They crossed my mind when I heard the following.

My company is introducing a new transportation security device into the Mexican market. Among our contacts is the head of a local freight broker association at one of the major Mexican ports. He told us that gangsters have now moved into the port which was previously reasonably safe. First they gunned down an employee of one of his associates. Now they have threatened to kill him if he doesn’t pay them a ransom of $500K. He cannot risk going home.

Another associate has been hired to provide personal security for the threatened brokers. On his arrival at the port, he had to be driven around in a police car with armed officers in both the front and back. The police and army are everywhere in the port but no one is safe.

I realize this is “only Mexico” and therefore not real to Canadians but the victims here are very ordinary business people, not soldiers from drug cartels. To put this in a Canadian context, can you imagine freight brokers at the Port of Vancouver being shot in the streets by extortionists acting with impunity?

No you can’t. Think about that next time you want to whine about your oh, so awful life in Canada.

#84 Royal City Dweller on 03.09.18 at 9:48 pm

#64 Mark
You got something against the truth? That 2013 was the peak of Canadian RE has been thoroughly proven. Your posts, although at a micro level, do significantly support the fact that there has been little to no gains on individual identical properties. A fact that is significantly supported by the deflationary forces in the Canadian economy and consumer behavior.

Mark! Guy! What the hell have you been talking about all along?
My house in 905 was worth – according to my bank appraisal – $750K back in 2013.
I sold to it to a greater fool for $1.1 mil in 2016 !!!

I know it’s Friday and you’re probably drinking but it seems you have been drinking the whole week.
Is it single malt?

#85 Karma on 03.09.18 at 9:53 pm

#20 AGuyInVancouver on 03.09.18 at 6:20 pm
“This piece in today’s Globe & Mail ties in very nicely with the theme of today’s blog:

British Columbia’s addiction to real estate has created a job sector that’s ballooned over the past decade, with real estate jobs growing 53 per cent in the Lower Mainland.

In the province, full-time jobs related to real estate have grown 39 per cent in that time span. Those jobs don’t include construction jobs, which grew in the Lower Mainland by 27 per cent from 2007 to 2017, according to Stats Can data…
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/vancouver/bcs-real-estate-boom-a-boon-for-job-seekers/article38220961/

Sorry it’s behind their paywall.”

Don’t be sorry, people should pay for services (news) they consumer. Perhaps then the quality of mainstream media news wouldn’t be so watered down since it has to compete with free crap that is on Yahoo, MSN, Huffpo and all those others that are super low-brow.

You mean like this free crap? – Garth

#86 For those about to flop... on 03.09.18 at 9:59 pm

Holy Guacamole…

M43BC

“After multiple lawsuits by creditors were filed, the project was placed in receivership, and a court-appointed firm is currently working out the ownership of the units, and court hearings are scheduled for later this year.

According to the receiver, the Bowra Group, the project owes approximately $62 million to creditors. A recent appraisal suggests it is worth about $38 million.

According to the Bowra Group, the 91 condo units in Murrayville House were sold 149 times, with 44 sold more than once, and one unit sold four times.”

https://www.peacearchnews.com/news/lower-mainaland-condo-developer-under-rcmp-investigation/

#87 Lead Paint on 03.09.18 at 10:02 pm

#29 Flat Earth Society on 03.09.18 at 6:35 pm

Wonderful summary, thank you.

Mark at #66 – give it up, you have NEVER substantiated the same old sales-mix deflationary crap you post over and over again , night after night, ad nauseam. Post data or shut up. I vote you off.

#67 agreed , Iran made a deal with US and US is pivoting away from it. How can you trust them ?

#88 Duke on 03.09.18 at 10:06 pm

#61 FOUR FINGERS WATSON on 03.09.18 at 8:34 pm
Little Kim meets The Donald : Much ado about nothing. Head fake. Photo op. Buy time until nukes are operational. Net result will be zero change and Trump will look like an even bigger fool.

==============

What the hell do you think N. Korea will nuke US? What do they gain by doing that? I am not a Trump supporter but I am 100% with him about the summit meeting between N. Korea and US. I look forward to seeing a Peace Agreement ending tension in Korean peninsula.

#89 jane24 on 03.09.18 at 10:32 pm

Hey guys I remember these get-rich-quick-with-no-money-down RE seminars in the late 1980’s just before the last RE big bust. I was a successful RE agent at the time and my phone would ring incessantly from such seminar gradates saying they wanted to order 6 houses with no money down for immed delivery. I hung up on them. These seminars are true canary in the coal mine stuff. They indicate that the current crop of potential RE buyers are indeed the last and greatest fools.

The reality is that if buying houses with other people’s money is indeed so easy then why have these seminar leaders not done it themselves and retired rich. Why are they still flogging themselves at fools seminars?

#90 waiting on the westcoast on 03.09.18 at 11:09 pm

#64 Mark on 03.09.18 at 9:00 pm
“Flop said“Don’t do that.
I don’t want my study into what is going on in Vancouver real estate to be used to support your often written ,but never proven theory that Vancouver real estate peaked in 2013.”

Then Mark said…” You got something against the truth? That 2013 was the peak of Canadian RE has been thoroughly proven.”

Mark – please provide your data. We all know that you are full of…

My parents place in Langley was valued at 1.1M in 2013. A raptor (heh – caught this autocorrect but it still works for a synonym for realtor) approached them saying he could sell it for 1.5M this spring. 0 upgrades, 0 mods to property…

#91 Funky on 03.09.18 at 11:14 pm

You guys are the best, and Mr. Turner I have to thank you yet again. Your’s ,on Hwy. 61…

#92 A123 on 03.09.18 at 11:24 pm

Human nature never changes. Greed and fear motivate. Celebrity sells. And we’re a nation of needy, gullible financial illiterates.
——-
This is why I will not feel sorry when real estate drops and thise same people have to pay the price for their greed and financial illiteracy
——-
Just today, one health professional at my workplace announced that he was house hunting. Blows my mind that he cannot see the writing on the wall. Except that millenial is unaware of what is in the news. To busy being self absorbed. Deserves to pay the price for ignorance.

#93 Christopher Steele on 03.09.18 at 11:25 pm

Here’s what people don’t get about North Korea:

Those nukes and ballistic missiles that they were testing? What if those bombs and those missiles didn’t belong to them? What if instead, they belonged to an oil rich country that had signed a treaty to suspend it’s nuclear research and development program, with compliance assured by their skeptical neighbour with an itchy trigger finger?

Iran can’t develop nukes, or the rockets to deliver them at home, because anything that they’d do would be detected by the Israelis, and acted upon by Israel, America, NATO, Russia, and just about everyone else within an hour’s flying time.

But suddenly Iran finds a willing partner, a hermit kingdom, where Mossad doesn’t blend in, or speak the language, where US and NATO forces are held away at arm’s length, forbidden to approach, or listen too intently to what lies beyond the borders.

That’s right, North Korea!
An oil-starved, cash-poor, no-fly zone, connected to Iran by overland trucking routes. Iran has the oil, and by signing the Nuclear deal, they suddenly have lots of cash and no plans to stop pumping and selling oil, no matter how unhappy it makes the Saudis and other OPEC members.

So the Olympics are over now, and a fleet of shipping containers marked ‘Iranian Republic Sports Team Equipment’ are once again making their way home. But why would a team of a half-dozen athletes need so many shipping containers? And why are more people leaving the games than there were when they arrived? The whole world was just there, really, who was keeping count?

But now NoKo needs another hit. They’ll give up their (ahem) nuclear program in exchange for cash and oil. Maybe some food, too.

The Iranians have gone home, and they’ve taken their toys, their cash, their sports fans, and oil with them. They may soon announce their new status in the Middle East, with Europe, Riyadh, and Tel Aviv all within range.

St. Petersburg too. Why do you think that Putin made his big announcement about Russia’s improved nuclear deterrents last week?

America was not the intended audience for that speech.

All of this that I’ve written is hypothetical. I have no proof that it is happening, though it’s logically cohesive. It’s what I’d do if it were me. Readers would do well to look for evidence to confirm that elements of this synopsis are NOT happening, and therefore could be discounted as false.

#94 A123 on 03.09.18 at 11:40 pm

#29 Flat Earth Society on 03.09.18 at 6:35 pm
OMG.. you said it so well.
This is the reality and it is scary.
Worst of all, Mr. Dress-up will get reelected by the millenials. So there will not be a different leader to reverse all this.
Need to convince my kids to leave Canada for a better life. USA? China?

#95 BillyBob on 03.10.18 at 12:09 am

#83 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.18 at 9:47 pm
There seems to be a lot of people who come here to complain about Canada. They’re already 28 and they still can’t afford a house in downtown Vancouver or Twinklesocks is making them pay too much tax yadda, yadda ad nauseam. They crossed my mind when I heard the following.

My company is introducing a new transportation security device into the Mexican market. Among our contacts is the head of a local freight broker association at one of the major Mexican ports. He told us that gangsters have now moved into the port which was previously reasonably safe. First they gunned down an employee of one of his associates. Now they have threatened to kill him if he doesn’t pay them a ransom of $500K. He cannot risk going home.

Another associate has been hired to provide personal security for the threatened brokers. On his arrival at the port, he had to be driven around in a police car with armed officers in both the front and back. The police and army are everywhere in the port but no one is safe.

I realize this is “only Mexico” and therefore not real to Canadians but the victims here are very ordinary business people, not soldiers from drug cartels. To put this in a Canadian context, can you imagine freight brokers at the Port of Vancouver being shot in the streets by extortionists acting with impunity?

No you can’t. Think about that next time you want to whine about your oh, so awful life in Canada.

===================================

I think people with a brain are actually more concerned about Canada becoming another Venezuela, not Mexico, but your point is taken.

This has to be the most retch-inducing, cringe-worthy Millennial display I’ve seen in awhile. Seriously, if this is the mindset out there – and judging by some of the posters here, it is – no wonder the country is screwed.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/03/07/how-finally-owning-a-home-ended-my-29-year-pursuit-of-stability_a_23355732/

Complete with near-tears (a la Trudeau), cheesy guitar backing, and over-the-top slow panning shots of mantle bric-a-brac. I have to say this doofus is pretty much what I envision when I mentally picture MF or SCM.

OMG! I searched and searched for like…29 years, and finally found my bliss by…buying a house!

Maybe if your parents weren’t typically financially ignorant Canadians they wouldn’t have lost not one, but two houses…? Perhaps THAT fact needs a little exploring?

Gonna have to edit a lot of blogs to pay for those Hamilton bricks, son.

#96 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.10.18 at 12:16 am

#12 Scared….. right strategy…..there are no bullish forecasts for the Loon…in fact it’s just the opposite. There has to be reason to buy $C…..there isn’t. It’s supply demand….someone had to want something in Canada enough to trade currencies …..those people have left Canada in droves and are still leaving.

Hundreds of billions gave up and left , voting with their wallets. So…..no demand for $C means a falling currency, simple as that. Poloz and Trudeau are the face of an unfolding disaster. Moroneau raising taxes is the consequence. And, webaint seen nothing yet. Do you think all those holes in the social safety net are going to be plugged with money from Canada hating American Liberals now that our factories and energy industries have died? No way Jose….it’s going to come from your paycheque when Trudeau decides that your boss is income sprinkling your family when his favorite boondoggles need the money more. Those highways in Gaza don’t build themselves you know.

#97 I miss a good laugh on 03.10.18 at 12:32 am

Where is SCM? I always have a good laugh reading her comments.
I miss the pretend anger and faux ignorance.
It really hits the spot. Comic gold!

#98 Dolce Vita on 03.10.18 at 12:36 am

“…but at the same time almost 40,000 full-time workers lost their paycheques while 54,700 part-time positions were created.”

As usual with StatCan, we will not know the impact that had on Consumer spending (payroll increases/decreases/no growth) until April 26.

Gov Canada makes it difficult to get the pulse on potential Consumer spending.

In April we get:

Feb. 2018 Payroll employment, earnings and hours
Mar. 2018 Labour Force Survey
No Gross domestic product by industry

May 1 is when they release the Feb. 2018 GDP report

The point is that we have to wait for NEARLY 2 MONTHS to ascertain the Consumer spending impact of the Feb. 2018 Full Time job losses offset by Part Time job gains.

The Americans get that information right away.

Would it kill StatCan to publish the Jobs, GDP and Payroll reports for the same month at or near the same time? For example, in Feb. we get the January reports.

It seems like they want to bury away dismal Jobs reports in our memory if a Payroll report confirms little or no gains.

Maybe I just answered my own complaint.

So much for transparency.

#99 Smoking Man on 03.10.18 at 12:46 am

Life is caos. Embrace it. Enjoy the ride. Safe spaces are for cowards.

Gut ranching despare, isolation and fear of the unknown and unacceptance ,wrapped up in a thin shell of fake sunshine.

That’s humanity

Thank God I’m from an other planet.

#100 Dolce Vita on 03.10.18 at 12:56 am

#10 New West

I know 1 observation does not make a statistical trend but I have encountered far too many of those “laid back” YVR people that are just plain greedy, that border on avarice.

One thing I like about Toronto is that when things go bad, the people get the hell out of the market before it gets even worse and later lick their wounds having a learned a lesson.

But oh no, not YVR – they’re all genius RE investors and no one is going to rain on their parade come Hell or High Water – actually, the NDP just did (and all the snow they have gotten this year will see thru the High Water, Hell remains TBD).

That lady, as you write about her, seems to be pretty headstrong and NO ONE is going to get in the way of her life’s mission (which is retiring on an island which #35 DON describes as folly unless you are an off the grid young hippie in no need of medical attention, or potable water).

She will in time join the ranks of the My Realty Check “Multiple Change Properties” price listings.

I’d keep track of her property list pricing there if I were you, and keep the price drops to yourself (in this case, smugness a good thing).

As always and in the end, deeds and actions speak louder than words.

#101 John on 03.10.18 at 1:03 am

Heard this also from friends who worked the hotels. Maybe Stallone’s ‘Knockout strategies” talk includes investing in Roto-rooter.

http://pacevegas.com/2017/11/source-sly-stalone-used-poop-shower-planet-hollywood/

#102 Nonplused on 03.10.18 at 1:13 am

Garth on #85 Karma

“You mean like this free crap?”

My feeling would be that since you are not beholden to advertisers, if anything you are just trying to get people to consider your investment service and maybe sell a few books, but thus must show yourself worthy of trust, that this free service is worth way more than we pay for it.

Oh and of course you’ll be pumping the store as opening day approaches but why not? If a few people want an ice cream and maybe meet Smoking Man or the Garth himself why not? If I was in the area I’d drop by.

Over the years Garth you have variously threatened to cut the comments section (don’t think you need to since it’s moderated), quit altogether, or just hang in the hot tub with the Amazons. (Ya, I remember the Amazons. Did you package them all off? Who is handling security?) Glad you keep going.

Even though the subject matter is somewhat repetitive it’s much better than CNN (“Russia, Russia, RUSSIA!!!!”) and does allow a forum for people to think and talk about the issues at hand.

It is a great work you do, even if it is worth about what we pay for it. Paul Revere didn’t get paid to ride through town either.

#103 Dolce Vita on 03.10.18 at 1:40 am

This for our “Mayor of Milton”:

https://twitter.com/DanielCherney/status/972122973372059648

And why do 416 and environs people always need bold red highlighted prices (reductions) with a thin diagonal line drawn thru the original non-bold price on these Developer advertisements?

What’s up with that?

Must be a 416 RE culture thing.

#104 Flat Earth Society on 03.10.18 at 1:53 am

Remember folks, we started the Flat Earth Society as a kind of a joke to be played upon people who didn’t believe in science and mathematics. We were trolling. But so many people believed us and sent us money it became an industry unto itself. You probably have a neighbor who thinks the world is flat. Sorry about that, but we are making decent money off of it. But anyway the point is that if it was so easy for us to convince so many people of something so totally ridiculous, why wouldn’t you expect that most people can believe practically anything? And it won’t matter how many “facts” you throw at them because they have their “evidences” once we give them to them.

That we’ve gotten Twinkle Socks elected was never our intention and for that I must apologize. It was supposed to be a joke that took a bit of money from a few morons like a mortgage. We didn’t intend to actually “flatten” the Earth financially. We were in it for a lark and a bit of beer money but it’s gone way out of control.

#105 Smoking Man on 03.10.18 at 1:57 am

Sucks Hunter S Thompson was such a coward. Lost his mojo and could not face caos. Happens every time your ego gets bigger than the tiny thing hiding in your boxers.

Atleased this hero hung on to the last moment.

https://youtu.be/FqESx05OuCA

#106 JQHigginz on 03.10.18 at 2:08 am

The Kim Trump lovefest is actually quite interesting.

Kim thinks he is doing a Sun Tzu know your enemy thing.
Trump is applying keep your friends close and enemies closer mafia think.

The reality is that they will negotiate a Marcos style deal for him to live out his days in Magnum PI Hawaiian shirts on Maui.

The main sticking point will be what to do with the gaga NK cheerleader girls.

#107 Leo Trollstoy on 03.10.18 at 2:19 am

Once real estate prices peaked in Toronto and Vancouver last year in 2017 it was a good time to sell

Not sure many timed it that well

#108 conan on 03.10.18 at 2:49 am

Let’s all hope the good economic news continues. Sooner, or later, the robots will come and take some of our jobs.

https://i.imgur.com/akVmh3i.gif

#109 under the radar on 03.10.18 at 5:13 am

About the wealth expo and the faded personalities .
A-Rod owns and manages about 13,000 rental units across the US. Stallone owns prime income producing revenue properties across the west coast. These are smart people who hired even smarter people who used their earnings to create empires.
No, i didn’t go to the expo.

#110 ANON on 03.10.18 at 6:16 am

It’s not that hard.
Even the High Priestess at the local Temple of Promises ([email protected] in blog lingo) said she does not trust the promises we tried to make for affording a rich, with our RLM business plan. She said promises are accepted for houses, cars, and investment. We insisted that there’s a correlation (true, not a causation) between the number of rich and wealth, so someone must properly care for them, or we find ourselves without both, and stuff like that, even showed her the blog comments, but the nice priestess insisted the Gods favor promises made for houses and cars these days, and told us to take a hike unless we make a promise for those. I guess it’s still renting and buss passes, then :(
Well, at least we did our part…

#111 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.10.18 at 6:23 am

#83 Andrew Woburn on 03.09.18 at 9:47 pm
There seems to be a lot of people who come here to complain about Canada. They’re already 28 and they still can’t afford a house in downtown Vancouver or Twinklesocks is making them pay too much tax yadda, yadda ad nauseam. They crossed my mind when I heard the following.

My company is introducing a new transportation security device into the Mexican market. Among our contacts is the head of a local freight broker association at one of the major Mexican ports. He told us that gangsters have now moved into the port which was previously reasonably safe. First they gunned down an employee of one of his associates. Now they have threatened to kill him if he doesn’t pay them a ransom of $500K. He cannot risk going home.

Another associate has been hired to provide personal security for the threatened brokers. On his arrival at the port, he had to be driven around in a police car with armed officers in both the front and back. The police and army are everywhere in the port but no one is safe.

I realize this is “only Mexico” and therefore not real to Canadians but the victims here are very ordinary business people, not soldiers from drug cartels. To put this in a Canadian context, can you imagine freight brokers at the Port of Vancouver being shot in the streets by extortionists acting with impunity?

No you can’t. Think about that next time you want to whine about your oh, so awful life in Canada.
=================================
A few years ago there was news about how our CBSA border guards were too afraid to confront our port workers who are some 80% with criminal records.
They are told what container not to check.
We do not have control as yet.

#112 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.10.18 at 7:25 am

#13 MF on 03.09.18 at 6:03 pm
“If you made money on real estate that you don’t wish to lose, sell. If you want to buy, wait.”

-I wonder if the green light to buy RE will actually come from this blog one day?

We had green lights for the oil collapse and commodity rut of 2015 down to the day, almost hour.

We had green lights after the dust settled on “corrections” in 2011, 2015, 2018, Brexit and Greece. Timed perfectly.

We had green lights for properties in the US in 2009, 2010, and to buy US dollars when they were cheap.

It’s bound to happen some day, I guess..but could be years from now.

MF

———————-

When that day comes, I’m liquidating everything and going all in on RE.

#113 The new $10 on 03.10.18 at 7:52 am

#65 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.09.18 at 9:01 pm

Another new issue of $10 bills has been announced. This time the bills will be vertically oriented like the Swiss and Israeli currencies. I’ll bet that those bills which are to become ‘valueless’ soon will be any that are of the old, horizontal, orientation. And I expect that, as with India, the $10 bill will soon be our largest denomination, with ‘cashless’ coming right on it’s heels.
————-

Had a small-c friend for lunch on Fri., asked if he was able to vote. No, not a PC member, but he said his wife (the “nut” in liberal nutbar) did vote. She often “joins” several parties during leadership races to pick the best of a bad lot. $10 Nutbar.

#114 theoryAndPractice on 03.10.18 at 7:54 am

#111 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.10.18 at 6:23 am :
“….I realize this is “only Mexico” and therefore not real to Canadians ….”

Research:
http://vancouversun.com/news/staff-blogs/organized-crime-and-the-port-part-one-of-my-series

Author :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Bolan

#115 LivinLarge on 03.10.18 at 8:02 am

“The reality is that if buying houses with other people’s money is indeed so easy then why have these seminar leaders not done it themselves and retired rich. Why are they still flogging themselves at fools seminars?”…because it’s a very simple, cheap and very lucrative gig when you can get it. They get on a traveling roadshow of maybe 20 seminars a year, trade on their name brand and take home clean cash. Just like “Home Shows” and some other tradeshows once were licenses to print money, these seminars currently are.

Rent a hall, spend some advertising bucks, maybe buy a couple of vetted email lists and pay a flat fee to the performers and move on to the next city. Just like the traveling rock-n-roll shows of the 60s. Only thing missing today is the t-shirt stand in the lobby.

Even if Stallone is guaranteed $100K US per appearance for 20 appearances per year, he pockets $2m per year for 20 days work that he likely doesn’t pay any agent or manager 15% on. Talking ain’t cheap.

#116 dharma bum on 03.10.18 at 8:04 am

#33 Trumpocalypse2018 on 03.09.18 at 6:54

Catastrophe dead ahead.

PREPARE
——————————————————————

Should we “Duck and Cover”?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_1jkLxhh20

#117 It's all Ova II on 03.10.18 at 8:08 am

#105 Smoking Man on 03.10.18 at 1:57 am

Sucks Hunter S Thompson was such a coward. Lost his mojo and could not face caos. Happens every time your ego gets bigger than the tiny thing hiding in your boxers.

Atleased this hero hung on to the last moment.

https://youtu.be/FqESx05OuCA

***********
If aliens spliced the DNA from Hunter S., Jordan P. and Johnny C. into an egg implanted into Ayn R., and she smoked during gestation, what would you name the baby?

A singing, smoking, space cowboy.

#118 LivinLarge on 03.10.18 at 8:23 am

Here’s a little true story with maybe some tangential connection to this blog.

In the 1980s Chuck Berry did about 100 one night stand type gigs in Canada and the US. What was IMO brilliant about his business model is that he travelled alone, without any band and used a local band of local union musicians at each gig. This cut his paperwork requirements and management expenses almost to zero. The promoter paid the union sidemen and Chuck travelled only with a suitcase, his Gibson and passport with work visa, didn’t even haul his own amp with him.

The really brilliant part of his plan was that he was paid by certified cheque before going on stage AND he never took the money he made in Canada out of Canada. He bought 6 and 12 plex apartments in Canada with his earnings and had a local senior citizen as his property manager here. I know all this because I was aquainted with the property manager. In the early 80s he had 6 apartment buildings in Kitchener alone. Each month the manager sent him one cheque for the monthly profits.

The property manager died in the late 80s so I don’t know if Chuck continued with this plan after that but he he lived frugally, travelled frugally and avoided moving money across the border much. I presume he paid his taxes in Canada on Canadian income and the same in the US but he certainly simplified his income and expenses management requirements.

#119 NoName on 03.10.18 at 8:33 am

#151 Smoking Man on 03.08.18 at 10:57 pm

#116 NoName on 03.08.18 at 8:27 pm
How is that model 3 coming along…

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/elon-musk-sides-with-trump-on-trade-with-china-citing-25-percent-import-duty-on-american-cars.html
……
China has been over producing steel at a record clip and dumping the excess on world market.
You are not a nation if you give up your primary industries. You are a sitting duck. Musk is a smart guy. Naturally he gets it. Even hires people with zero degrees. He gets it.
Do they even teach what a primary industry is in school these days? Probably not. To busy demonizing and shaming straight white heterosexual males.

That’s why. Libralism will go extinct next election cycle. Print and put on this on the fridge.
I know the herd.
Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics
—-

I know just want to be published on my fridge, so there you have it, as per your suggestion, I taped it, not on fridge, but on microwave, much better foot traffic area, more people will see it there, so they’ll know what’s coming.

It wont be long now, before mass hysteria sets in, when many take second look at misinformation that is readily available and bombarded upon unsuspected. Everything will be questioned, scrutinized and dissected for origin and accuracy. It will be disheartening for me at least, to see people moving everything that was previously filed under achievable and somewhat achievable goals, strait to “unrealistic” expectations but I guess that’s life why make it better when you can make it more complex. Simplicity is so overrated. Looking at Canadians and US people and politics now days, I think even Shakepeare him self caouldnt write a better tragedy.

Don’t forget to click on a link. You just might learn something.
https://imgur.com/a/7Bk8N

#120 NoName on 03.10.18 at 10:15 am

#117 It’s all Ova II on 03.10.18 at 8:08 am
#105 Smoking Man on 03.10.18 at 1:57 am
Sucks Hunter S Thompson was such a coward. Lost his mojo and could not face caos. Happens every time your ego gets bigger than the tiny thing hiding in your boxers.
Atleased this hero hung on to the last moment.
https://youtu.be/FqESx05OuCA
***********
If aliens spliced the DNA from Hunter S., Jordan P. and Johnny C. into an egg implanted into Ayn R., and she smoked during gestation, what would you name the baby?
A singing, smoking, space cowboy.

smoking man is a komunist but unfortunately he just don’t know that yet…

don’t forget click on link
https://imgur.com/a/41oTf

#121 not the Dally Llama on 03.10.18 at 10:21 am

Could someone with Photoshop chops overlay this on a 407 Toll Sign:

“You are now entering Chinese Territory”

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/aecon-a-stepping-stone-for-beijing-fears-rise-as-ottawa-decides-on-1-5b-deal

#122 @Spectacle on 03.10.18 at 10:35 am

#73 Stone on 03.09.18 at 9:13 pm
#60 Damifino on 03.09.18 at 8:28 pm
#45 crowdedelevatorfartz

I was working in a downtown office building. I needed a break so I went down to the loading bay and stood in the alley just people watching.
———————————

Did you take the elevator?

———

More importantly, did anybody fart?

Um, why do you think Stalone got out of the Limo…..

Real Estate peaked in 2017. ( Not 2013.) , Deep inside the game, many times have seen that Pre-Sale units sell for significantly greater profits, and they were sold ::
1)Pre- Occupancy, 2) Pre-final completion of building. Often is a big no-no in the sales contract.

#123 For those about to flop... on 03.10.18 at 10:37 am

This place near where I live came on the market not long ago and I will follow it and 4 or 5 others to see just how close we are getting to breaking back through the million dollar mark in Vancouver as prices recede.

The main news about this one is they only listed on February 26th and already decided to whack 60k off the price after just nine days on the market.

Not sure if they had a poor open house or what ,but that’s showing some motivation.

They actually got a decent price at the time of purchase considering when they bought.

They are on the hook for 1.05 after picking it up in Spring 2016 and after the latest reduction they are asking 1.26 with a strong assessment at 1.35.Land value,of course.

Perhaps the best thing they have going in their favour ,is that the house in on one of the nicest tree lined streets in the neighbourhood ,and although there are a few Junkers in that block there are also a few decent new builds ,much larger, showcasing what could be done.

See what happens…

M43BC

St. Catherines Street, Vancouver

Feb 27:$1,329,000
Mar 9: $1,268,000
Change: – 61000.00 -5%

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/5294-st-catherines-street

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.18 at 10:43 am

@#69 Damfino
“Did you take the elevator?”
+++++

Every chance I get.

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.18 at 11:00 am

@#116 dharma bum
Re Apocalypto2018
“Should we “Duck and Cover”?”
++++

No no. Not a Duck.

https://www.google.ca/url?url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DwMHgiwemNG0&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ved=0ahUKEwjL7P7Lj-LZAhUE92MKHZMBCtsQtwIIMTAF&usg=AOvVaw1ZBXyZQIS37XPdy-s6S-ER

#126 paul on 03.10.18 at 11:03 am

Ya, the new minimum wage is great until it isn’t.

https://www.simcoe.com/news-story/8314576-owner-of-alliston-burger-joint-says-minimum-wage-hike-drove-him-out-of-business/

#127 Reximus on 03.10.18 at 11:27 am

#104 Flat Earth Society on 03.10.18 at 1:53 am

I knew Leo Ferrari at UNB, he was the Don of my residence…he used to invite us to a ‘private’ test presentations of his FES shtick that he would later take out on the road, we were his guinea pigs, so to speak…pretty funny guy, and to be sure did not believe in a flat earth, and he would howl laughing if he heard what today’s Flat-earthers are selling. He just really loved challenging biases, particularly racism

Anyway, one time he was going through his show with us and he had all his usual and well-prepped counter-points from the earth-is-globe-shaped crowd, and then I asked him, if the earth was flat, why would there be two frozen poles at the same time…this caught him completely off-guard and he said that it was the first time anyone had asked that.

I asked him later how he planned to tackle that one in future presentations and he said

“I’ll just hope no one else asks me that one!”

#128 Civilian Broadcasting on 03.10.18 at 11:32 am

#33 Trumpocalypse2018 on 03.09.18 at 6:54 pm

6 Days to the Ides of March !!!!!!
************

General Jack D. Ripper: Mandrake, do you recall what Clemenceau once said about war?

He said war was too important to be left to the generals. When he said that, 50 years ago, he might have been right. But today, war is too important to be left to politicians. They have neither the time, the training, nor the inclination for strategic thought. I can no longer sit back and allow Communist infiltration, Communist indoctrination, Communist subversion and the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids.

Dr. Strangelove (1964)

#129 TEMPLE on 03.10.18 at 11:58 am

Garth, this “crowdedelevatorfartz” guy needs to get the boot for being antisemitic:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/03/08/let-it-burn/#comment-580103

No way you can ban someone like SCM and leave someone who pollutes (no pun intended) your blog like he does. Mostly he just produces drivel, but yesterday’s remark was just gross.

#130 Mark on 03.10.18 at 12:32 pm

“There has to be reason to buy $C…..there isn’t.”

$2T of Canadian consumer debt implies absolutely enormous buying demand for CAD$ as such debt and associated interest must be repaid in CAD$.

#131 Gravy Train on 03.10.18 at 1:07 pm

#77 For those about to flop… on 03.09.18 at 9:30 pm
“If you continue to make a mockery of my Pink Project, I will hunt you down, bend you over my knee, and beat your ass with a Forbes magazine….”

I think Stormy Daniels has a patent pending on that maneuver, Floppy! :)

#132 45north on 03.10.18 at 1:29 pm

maybe we can go back a day:

Dave McKay, President of RBC made a statement about RBC’s mortgage portfolio

Stan Brooks: The very fact that RBC is publishing such statement, on the status of their mortgage portfolio is alarming. Who are they trying to convince and why? Something is going on.

here’s the statement:

Mark:
“[RBC] said only a tiny portion of RBC’s roughly $260-billion residential portfolio could be at risk for losses if home prices collapse.
[RBC] suggests removing RBC’s roughly $100-billion in insured mortgages from the discussion since they don’t pose a real credit risk to the bank, leaving about $160-billion in uninsured mortgages to assess.
[RBC] then eliminates those uninsured loans that are for less than 70 per cent of the value of the property. [RBC] estimates that’s about $140-billion of the bank’s mortgage book. “That’s quite significant,” he said.
..
In the end, [RBC has] a pool of $6-billion in mortgages that are uninsured, have a loan-to-value ratio between 70 and 80 per cent, have a total debt service ratio higher than 35 per cent, generate less than $150,000 in annual income and were originated in the last few years…
.. that’s just $6-billion of risky loans in a portfolio worth almost $260-billion.”

first of all Dave McKay is saying we’re not Home Capital. We didn’t buy Home Capital because it would have increased our risk. So if you have shares in RBC, hang on for the ride.

Secondly, the Province of British Columbia has passed some pretty stupid and asinine laws but this has not significantly increased our risk. It has a little, but not a lot. If the elected politicians want to destroy the economy, that’s their right.

#133 For those about to flop... on 03.10.18 at 1:39 pm

Gravy train 18 at 1:07 pm
#77 For those about to flop… on 03.09.18 at 9:30 pm
“If you continue to make a mockery of my Pink Project, I will hunt you down, bend you over my knee, and beat your ass with a Forbes magazine….”

I think Stormy Daniels has a patent pending on that maneuver, Floppy! :)

////////////

I knew I could count on you to get it…

M43BC

#134 Yesterday's Hot topic on 03.10.18 at 1:40 pm

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/03/08/this-ontario-pc-leadership-race-theres-a-term-for-that.html

#135 Stan Brooks on 03.10.18 at 1:48 pm

#129 Mark on 03.10.18 at 12:32 pm
“There has to be reason to buy $C…..there isn’t.”

$2T of Canadian consumer debt implies absolutely enormous buying demand for CAD$ as such debt and associated interest must be repaid in CAD$.

————————————

You mean demand for CAD from broken people with debt who have nothing?

This is not the world reserve currency.

I see no demand for it.

#136 CBC News update on 03.10.18 at 1:59 pm

Alberta dinosaur, Jason Kenney now doing stand-up at the PC leadership dumpster-fire. Some golf claps….

#137 Small_Town_Steve on 03.10.18 at 2:06 pm

Smoking man…
Chaos is the proper spelling of caos.

#138 Balmuto on 03.10.18 at 2:13 pm

“#107 Leo Trollstoy on 03.10.18 at 2:19 am
Once real estate prices peaked in Toronto and Vancouver last year in 2017 it was a good time to sell

Not sure many timed it that well”

Mark timed it perfectly. He sold his imaginary house at the imaginary peak of 2013, then put his imaginary money in imaginary investments that have benefited from imaginary deflation. He’s on the ball, that guy!

#139 CBC News update on 03.10.18 at 2:22 pm

JK’s ich bin ein Ontarian speech did not go well.
Vic tried to boost morale. Waiting for more dinosaurs….

#140 Stan Brooks on 03.10.18 at 2:48 pm

#132 45north on 03.10.18 at 1:29 pm
maybe we can go back a day:

first of all Dave McKay is saying we’re not Home Capital. We didn’t buy Home Capital because it would have increased our risk. So if you have shares in RBC, hang on for the ride.

Secondly, the Province of British Columbia has passed some pretty stupid and asinine laws but this has not significantly increased our risk. It has a little, but not a lot. If the elected politicians want to destroy the economy, that’s their right.

——————————

Or maybe he is saying:

1. I don’t care at all about all the subprime crap underwritten/the 100 billion part, it is CMHC liability (what do you think is the loan ration for these)?. It is interesting what Wild Bill thinks about that.

Can the budget eat 25 billions loss from that portfolio alone if prices decline by 40 % in top markets?

2. A message to BOC not to allow more than 30 % decline in top markets or else.

——————————

Now if the top markets decline by 40 % can that portfolio generate 35 billion loss for the budget and the bank? Not sure. Why won’t they publish that analysis?

What if top markets (with majority of the high ration loans) like GTA and Vancouver decline by 60-70 % (not unrealistic considering valuations), would that generate 70 billion of losses?

Should we consider places like Vaughan, Mississauga, Brampton, Markham candidates for 70-80 % decline in values?

Even in depreciating loonie?

We shell see.

Disclaimer: Clearly no bank will fail.
but there will be fallout one way or another.
Most likely the loonie.

#141 Big Kahuna on 03.10.18 at 4:39 pm

#29 Flat Earth-you would be whistling a different tune if you had your life savings in DOLLARAMA stock, or if you were a member of the Weston family, or if you had a large piece of the Walmart business, or the big banks, etc.etc.etc. BOTTOM LINE-this idiot is just a puppet of the Billionaires who benefit greatly from a larger GDP even with a declining median standard of living. Reality exists whether you choose to accept it or not.

#142 45north on 03.10.18 at 6:03 pm

Stan Brooks: what do you think the loan ratio is for the $100 billion underwritten by CMHC?

about the same as the rest – the $1 million cap basically cut off the high end as the market went parabolic. For the last year, CMHC has been in a prevent defence.

The difference between the collapse in the US in 2006-2008 and Canada right now is that in the US, the banks were surprised. In Canada they aren’t. The banks, CMHC and OSFI have built their walls and dug their moats. Garth has been a voice crying in the wilderness and his message is directed at the ordinary person. Like me.

#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.18 at 9:26 pm

@#129 Temple
“antisemitic”
+++++++
Wow.
Sorry you’re so sensitive.
Each response I wrote was in direct response to the “survey answers” given.
Apparently “Irony” , and “Pun” weren’t handed out by the stork when you were born.
Are you sure you dont want to ban #139 CBC News Update for using Germanic terms as well?

Or are true historical terms too much for you to handle?

Jerry Seinfeld called a character on his show a “Soup Nazi” did you email him about his insensitivity as well?

Grow up.

#144 Russ on 03.10.18 at 10:56 pm

crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.10.18 at 9:26 pm

@#129 Temple
“antisemitic”
+++++++
Wow.
Sorry you’re so sensitive.
====================

Thanks guys.

I’ve been busy, so just skimming comments, and would have missed the CEF TIC humour if this hadn’t been referenced.

Keep up the good work.

#145 expoRumbo on 03.11.18 at 12:50 am

What’s the most useful thing you learned at the expo?
https://twitter.com/Mr_Silbergleit/status/970471346865037312