Let it burn

When the US housing market croaked, starting in 2005 (it needed two years to bottom), the entire American economy dove along with it. House prices fell 32% on average, and took a decade to recover. Unemployment doubled.

When the Canadian housing market blew up in the late Eighties and early Nineties, a similar pattern. Toronto houses, for example, shed 31% of their value over a couple of years. Over the next five years the national jobless rate swelled from 7.8% to 11.4%, and the country staggered through a recession.

Talk to the people of Ireland, Greece, Spain or the UK about their real estate busts in the last few years. Same story. House sales and prices collapsed, then economic activity followed. In every single instance, large numbers of people lost their jobs, sapping consumer confidence and exacerbating the decline. It’s just the way economies work. Everything is connected to everything else.

The conversations on this pathetic blog recently show most people don’t get this. They believe even though we’ve allowed real estate to make up a quarter of the whole economy, prices can be forced lower without consequence. It’s impossible. It won’t happen. Others chirp in with statements like, “bring on the collapse,” thinking once markets tumble by 40% or a half they’ll be able to afford real estate.

Let it burn. Is this a solution?

We should all be aware of the perfect storm which has gathered over the land. The headwinds were already there – rising mortgage rates as the world reinflates. Debilitating household debt levels. Tighter lending rules imposed by worried regulators. Utterly unsustainable house values. Stagnant incomes and depleted savings.

Then the politicians moved in. The 15% anti-foreigner tax in Ontario and now a 20% levy in BC. Universal rent controls to squish amateur landlords. The empty house tax. Increased property taxes. The weird and punitive NDP ‘speculation’ tax. Meanwhile amortizations have been reduced, mortgage insurance costs increased and the universal stress test imposed.

The market response so far has been negative. Sales down. Prices in some areas freefalling. But these are early days. And now there are macro threats to worry about. Donald Trump is utterly unpredictable, but clearly protectionist. He threatens a global trade war in which Canada could end up roadkill. Such a conflict would curb growth, drop commodity values and hit oil – our major export. It would increase US consumer prices, fuel inflation and lead to higher American interest rates – and Canadian mortgages. For days now financial markets have been whip-sawing between despair and relief as the Trumpian Tweets fly.

Against this backdrop of growing uncertainty, the let-it-burn crowd craves a collapse they think will hurt the wealthy and benefit the rest. Forget it. Things don’t work that way. If governments in Ontario and BC succeed in artificially cratering real estate values, the cost could be substantial and the odds are good a recession will ensue – as always seems to happen. Jobs are lost, disposable income shrivels, buyers retreat, construction stops, renos freeze up, realtors, car leasing dudes and mortgage brokers starve, drywallers, electricians, framers, roofers and plumbers go home. If you’re not working and can’t get credit, it actually doesn’t matter how cheap houses get. You’re SOL.

There is no scenario in which a politically-created housing crash does not end in economic reversal. Then it’s the worker bees who suffer most, while the wealthy are in a position to scoop up distressed assets (also known as ‘homes’). Taxing non-residents, non-locals, cottage owners, mansion dwellers or anyone with two properties may drive them away and gut real estate values, but it doesn’t make the rich poorer or the poor richer. It just means capital moves, taking jobs with it.

The Canadian housing market was doomed anyway, but had the chance of a long, bumpy landing. Doubtful now.

Be careful what you wish for.

290 comments ↓

#1 Penny Henny on 03.08.18 at 5:58 pm

#MeFirst

#2 Cottingham a bargain on 03.08.18 at 6:05 pm

Great post tonight and all correct.

I can hardly wait for lower property prices and better cap rates so that I can add to my portfolio of properties .

The Yonge st corridor ,up to Richmond Hill to south of Major M an absolute lock for investment purposes over next twenty years.

#3 Guy in Calgary on 03.08.18 at 6:05 pm

Good quick post. Mainly because it reflects exactly what I think of course.

As I’ve said before, this will crush the middle class and the wealthy will be fine regardless. Masochism.

#4 highlander on 03.08.18 at 6:07 pm

this sure looks fugly, not much light at the end of this tunnel for the foreseeable future

#5 Matt on 03.08.18 at 6:09 pm

So most of us are screwed either way? Great.

#6 Karma on 03.08.18 at 6:10 pm

For the older millennials and younger Gen Xers…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XchwE9zVdnw

#7 renter in Surrey on 03.08.18 at 6:10 pm

houses in Langley are still 1 mil+ though
30% correction is not going to make them affordable

it is different in Canada somehow

may be USA is more free market country and Canada is more socialist country

#8 MF on 03.08.18 at 6:11 pm

#2 Cottingham a bargain on 03.08.18 at 6:05 pm

I keep hearing you say this.

What is the rationale behind it? What does that area offer?

MF

#9 I’m stupid on 03.08.18 at 6:12 pm

What did anyone expect? The market in Toronto and Vancouver has been operating on greater fool theory with ponzi financing for a very long time. The can that was kicked down the road finally made it to the end of the street.

#10 jess on 03.08.18 at 6:12 pm

It’s just the way economies work. Everything is connected to everything else.
—————————-

https://mqrp.qc.ca/blogue/2018/02/25/nous-demandons-lannulation-des-hausses/

Some Quebec doctors say they want the government to cancel raises for the province’s specialists and general practitioners and spend the money on patient care and resources for their underpaid and overworked colleagues instead.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-doctors-raise-1.4551888

#11 Chipshot on 03.08.18 at 6:13 pm

Shit happens when you keep juicing interest rates lower for 10 years as house prices balloon while touting there is no inflation. It’s all part of the business cycles that happen every decade. Governments are only doing what central banks won’t and should have done years ago.

Sales may be down but prices aren’t coming down on the west coast, they are infact still going for ridiculous over asking prices. This needs a major fork stuck in it and the fall out has only been promoted on here for years. That’s why most people came here for, the bonfire of massive greed. We’re still waiting out west.

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.18 at 6:14 pm

Unfortunately .
People have the attention span of fruit flies.
I remember the 70’s recession.
The economic meltdown of the 80’s.
The 90’s slow down.

Yep. Boomers had it so easy.
Well.
Lets see how Millenials handle their first serious recession……
With grace and aplomb no doubt.

#13 Smoking Man on 03.08.18 at 6:17 pm

Been saying this for awhile.

Starbucks philosophers have zero concept of capital flight and the job loses that follow.

They still think they are in school where everyone gets a trophy.

I’m in a great position to vulch when the dust settles.

Never bet against the Smoking Man.

#14 Blacksheep on 03.08.18 at 6:18 pm

DON # 296,

“Blacksheep…have you lost your wool again or just no takers.

If you had watched or read the throne speech it was stated that more details were to follow. It was not set in stone. But you continue to harp on one point. Your beloved BC liberal corrupt party is golden in your eyes.
I can’t stand political parties as they tend not to represent their constituents. But misinformation or lazy opinions seem to be the norm.

Weren’t you the same guy that has been arguing that BC wasn’t in a real estate bubble?

FFS! Now I know why some Millennial are misinformed, you have been trying to pull the wool over their eyes for quite some time.”
————————————-
Don,

I noticed you wrote about many topics in your post:

Dislike for political parties, My opinion on RE bubbles, Misinformed Millennials, Lazy opinions, my love for Liberal’s and the throne speech not being finalized….

I also noticed the you never addressed the actual topic in my post:

Investors holding multiple RE properties avoiding paying taxes and generating new revenues buy contracting out their rentals handling.

The fact that said investors will not need to bail on mass and not be adding new product on mass to the market made me ask why, RE prices are expected to significantly drop, even with the full contingent of NDP taxes, as presented?

I’m thankful for our respectful l dialogue, but was simply posing a question to the dogs. If you would like to address what I actually posted about, showing me the error in my rational, that would be great.

#15 Mac on 03.08.18 at 6:19 pm

…and the ever so clever collectivists will be screaming for even more government “solutions” to these economic problems that will be naturally blamed, yet again, on the evil wealthy and the nasty free markets (free markets LOL like that exists). Round and round goes the spiral into the collectivist septic tank that is becoming Canada. When will people ever learn? That which is taxed withers and that which is subsidized grows. Party on Canukistan.

#16 i,see,debt,people on 03.08.18 at 6:19 pm

bring it on. armageddon… my powder is dry!

#17 Trojan House on 03.08.18 at 6:20 pm

I can barely stand Screwed Canadian Millennial’s posts now – wait until what Garth writes about happens! SCM will go ballistic more than Kim Jong-un’s missiles! Of course SCM will blame the rich more even though they’ll be the ones mopping up the crumbs. Government policies never hurt the rich, they only ‘screw’ over the middle and lower classes.

#18 Blacksheep on 03.08.18 at 6:22 pm

Dood # 299,

“NDP will be in power for the next 2-3, maybe 4 elections, no matter what – unless everyone is quick to forget the Liberals last 15 years in power, which I doubt will happen.”
—————————————–
Been In Van my whole life…

I have already seen twice what happens to the economy when the NDP gets in power. Give em a little time, they will F things up just fine, all on their own and It shouldn’t take more than 1 election cycle.

In fact, as far as I can see, they are off to a great start!

#19 the ryguy on 03.08.18 at 6:23 pm

Agree 100% with everything Garth said…and Im still in the “let it burn” camp.

What other options are there? Canadians have CLEARLY shown they absolutely cannot manage their finances. I don’t know when or how we got the international reputation of fiscal prudence, but its long gone now.

Rates get lowered, everyone and their dog buys a property or 2,3,4 who even knows anymore. Assessments go up, that equity gets sucked out and spent on another property, or a vacation, car, whatever…to be paid back WITH INTEREST.

When the debate is who can use what bathrooms or whatever else socks and lefties want to fight about..hate to say it but we deserve whats coming. We’ve become stupid and soft as a nation. Believing in absolutes without a shred of empirical evidence is the death knell of a populace.

Something better (I sincerely hope) will emerge from the ashes. Nut up Canucks…turbulent times ahead.

#20 BC_Doc on 03.08.18 at 6:23 pm

In RE, equities, fixed income, I hope for Reversion to the Mean. When valuations are bloated, simple mathematics shows that it’s often a painful process involving some tough returns to get back there. I have three of my kids who are college aged young adults following professional tracks. For their sake, if their professional futures are to lay in Canada, I hope our bloated west coast real estate bubble will deflate.

#21 Mark on 03.08.18 at 6:25 pm

Fortunately Canada’s banks have positioned themselves against a collapsing housing market. Such as RBC, which described its exposure like this:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rbc-chief-executive-not-worried-about-risk-posed-by-cooldown-in-housing/article36192083/

“[RBC] said only a tiny portion of RBC’s roughly $260-billion residential portfolio could be at risk for losses if home prices collapse.

[RBC] suggests removing RBC’s roughly $100-billion in insured mortgages from the discussion since they don’t pose a real credit risk to the bank, leaving about $160-billion in uninsured mortgages to assess.

[RBC] then eliminates those uninsured loans that are for less than 70 per cent of the value of the property. [RBC] estimates that’s about $140-billion of the bank’s mortgage book. “That’s quite significant,” he said.

..

In the end, [RBC has] a pool of $6-billion in mortgages that are uninsured, have a loan-to-value ratio between 70 and 80 per cent, have a total debt service ratio higher than 35 per cent, generate less than $150,000 in annual income and were originated in the last few years…

.. that’s just $6-billion of risky loans in a portfolio worth almost $260-billion.

Meanwhile the money-good loans in RBC’s portfolio will reprice at much higher interest rate spreads over the next few years as lenders develop risk-aversion to RE lending. An extra 100bp of spread expansion on a $260B portfolio brings in an extra $2.6B/year, and 100bp is a pretty conservative number given what we know has happened to retail mortgage borrowers over the past year or two of retail credit tightening.

Based on this math, there’s no reason why the banks can’t or won’t perform well going forward. The real losers will be the indebted homeowners, owning a depreciating asset and facing increasingly expensive (in real terms) costs of finance. The days of borrowers laughing at the bankers and essentially being given “free” equity are over. Its payback time. The TSX after a decade-long consolidation is primed for an upwards explosion in the coming years.

#22 ole Doberman on 03.08.18 at 6:28 pm

Happy housing crash everyone!

#23 TrailerSailor on 03.08.18 at 6:29 pm

“So goes the GTA, so goes the country” ?

House prices and listings in smaller-but-still-important markets (Ottawa, Montreal, QC) aren’t dropping.

Is a housing collapse in the Bubble Regions really going to move macro variables enough to drive the whole economy intro recession?

If it doesn’t, might we just not see people move out of VAN and GTA? There’s a lot more Canada than gets talked about here…

#24 Interstellar Old Yeller on 03.08.18 at 6:30 pm

There is no scenario in which a politically-created housing crash does not end in economic reversal. Then it’s the worker bees who suffer most, while the wealthy are in a position to scoop up distressed assets (also known as ‘homes’).

Well, it seems a substantial portion of commenters consider themselves the wealthy (not SCM). Whether it’s true remains to be seen.

#25 MF on 03.08.18 at 6:31 pm

Property values will not diminish much. There is a lot of money floating around thanks to a decade of easy credit and interest rates that were left too low for too long and that will not rise any meaningful amount. This is in the GTA, the only RE I care about.

Demand is still strong. The city is booming. You can feel the demand in the comment section everyday. How many comments are former renters with large portfolios waiting to jump in?

That being said, Garth is correct in that real meltdowns take decades to unravel and leave a trail of recessions behind. I don’t see that here in the GTA. Average prices may be down from the ATH last year, but after rising 300% in five years nobody is noticing.

We might have some stabilization, but the party will most likely resume (whoever is in power doesn’t matter).

MF

#26 Terry on 03.08.18 at 6:32 pm

“and the odds are good a recession will ensue”

There it is. The dreaded “R” word. I was waiting to see when you would start using the “R” again Garth. We are already way ahead of you on this one. I predict a Recession to hit Canada beginning this summer and deepening into all of 2019. We have re-balanced our Canadian equity portfolio exposure, deferred major purchases, cancelled vacation plans and are lowering discretionary spending in preparation for Canada’s next Recession.

#27 Fuzzy Camel on 03.08.18 at 6:33 pm

There is so much momentum behind this housing bubble it could take 2+ years to fizzle. All our developers are sold out, condos all gone to speculators, just outside GTA. Everyone has remortgaged and bought 2+ condos as ‘investments’ that have a negative ROI.

There is a shortage of housing, big time. 100+ people to rent a single stinking house.

Only thing going to sink this party is rates rising. Garth, as what is one to do in the meantime if you can afford a modest house and are tired of renting?

I’ve got enough to buy a small house cash, no mortgage. Stock market is weakening up, sold all my positions last month. Should I just sit in cash?

#28 Doug t on 03.08.18 at 6:34 pm

Bring it on Garth – B.C. Is going get what it is asking for and I’m going to sit here in Victoira and watch

RATM

#29 Southern Albertan on 03.08.18 at 6:34 pm

Spoke to 2 different renovation contractors who have both had large contracts fall through in the past few weeks. Another patient of mine builds custom homes and has little on the horizon beyond the summer. Collateral damage will extend beyond the hammers and boots. Way beyond. The builder conceded that there is no way around a reckoning at this point. As inevitable as it is and as predicable as it was for us, it’s nothing to cheer about. There will be plenty of misery ahead for many and most do not “deserve what they have coming.”

The irony of it all, like #3 Guy in Calgary says, the targeted wealthy will absorb the damage better than the vulnerable middle class.

#30 Boombust on 03.08.18 at 6:34 pm

#2

What a selfish and short-sighted prick you are; people like you just don’t “get it” and never will.

#31 Camille on 03.08.18 at 6:35 pm

Wise man. Speak softly, walk with a big stick.

#32 -=jwk=- on 03.08.18 at 6:35 pm

Indeed, having live through the US crash in Los Angeles I saw this first hand. First the builders layoff, then the tradesman, then the insurance and escrow services, then the appraisors, then the realtors, then the home depot starts reducing shifts, then the malls close, then retail closes, then schools dropping enrolment, then taxes go up because general revenue is down….then everything just stops. No one has any money. It gets ugly. Real ugly. Desperation ugly. I drove back to Canada and went back to school. So, there’s that.

#33 jess on 03.08.18 at 6:36 pm

Lehman to Pay $2.4 Billion to End Crisis-Era Mortgage Claims
By Tiffany Kary

Judge rules on mortgage-backed securities from pre-2008 loans

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy estate will pay $2.38 billion to compensate for its role in the previous decade’s mortgage crisis, not 11b.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-08/lehman-brothers-payout-on-crisis-era-mortgage-claims-in-sight

#34 Boombust on 03.08.18 at 6:36 pm

#7

You are Quite, quite delusional.

Why do you even bother to read GT’s posts? They seem to fly right over your head.

#35 ppsez on 03.08.18 at 6:36 pm

Bubble burst alone would have slashed price by 30% or so but now with politician moving in also it will be lot more than 30%.
But view from other side, Falls are always beautiful.

#36 Lopez on 03.08.18 at 6:36 pm

The government should be focusing on creating an environment where people can afford the market price of housing. By lowering taxes and fostering business innovation, Canadians could find employment that would provide better wages than the new and improved $15 per hour (which is starvation wage anyway).

The debate is not focused on improving opportunities for all Canadians but on crushing the innovators and the successful ones. Like Russia in 1917.
Ask yourself: why the Albertans were able to afford BC housing but the people of BC could not? Would it have something to do with the BC economy being on life support for the past 20 years? I have a feeling that the life support is about to be switched off and the average people of BC will still be priced out of the market.

#37 Reality is stark on 03.08.18 at 6:37 pm

All the bad news ahead is a given. However we are forgetting the canary in the coal mine.
Take the time to speak to a millennial. They honestly believe Hugo Chavez was the second coming. We are destined to be Venezuela 2. All the seeds are being sown. The capitalist values you grew up with are seen as mean spirited. Mediocre people don’t like high achievers.
Americans however understand how well a country performs when the mantra is to become a high achiever because high achievers don’t like mediocrity.
It took 30 years for the socialists to destroy Venezuela, it shouldn’t take this bunch quite as long to destroy Canada.

#38 Entrepreneur on 03.08.18 at 6:38 pm

And the BC NDP is watching closely, not like the Liberals/Conservatives. We continuously complained but our words were not worthy to them.

When bloggers say word like communism/comrade and referring to the NDP, like really. Communism is the control of your mind starting at a young age. Everyone in that country has to look up to their leader as if the only one and the correct way. Proof of this is in their parade (military marches and endless floats of weapon and just that).

Also, bloggers throw in strong language as “hate” for an argument against the NDP are not participating correctly. More of a hate to keep the NDP out. And why? Maybe #115 SM…said it the best “Globalism Screwed you.”

With the NDP (/Greens) new rules British Columbians middles class will bounce back to make our communities/province productive once again. As it should be.

#39 TRUMP on 03.08.18 at 6:39 pm

Just more of the same…..

That’s all it is.

#40 Nonplused on 03.08.18 at 6:42 pm

The more I think about it, this is what the ultimate target of socialism in BC (and Canada) looks like: A wealthy 1% (just using the title, elite works too) who are unaffected by anything and merely pass their taxes on to their capture clients, and everyone else has the same outcome. Same after tax income, same size house, only one of them, same same same. No differences allowed.

How else can we explain the inane and very complicated idea that second homes receive a 2% tax, but you can deduct any income tax already paid to the BC government? This is a tax that directly targets the “upper middle class” but leaves the elite unaffected. A guy who has a $5,000,000 house in Vancouver and a $2,000,000 house in Whistler and makes $2,000,000 a year will pay not a stitch of the 2% tax on his $2,000,000 condo because he’s already paying $220,000 in provincial taxes which is way more than the $40,000 the 2% second home tax would be. It’s disingenuous as to be diabolical. So the rich are exempt from the empty house tax.

The lower middle class and poor are also exempt because they don’t have a second house unless it’s a rental and they bought it as an investment. It’s rented out as much as possible.

So this tax is meant to target specifically middle to upper-middle class people who happen to have a little more to show for their efforts than the lower-middle to poor people do. But the rich are exempt.

Obviously they are also targeting brown people and Albertans. This is a sort of “trade war” between provinces and it won’t be helpful at all. It can be seen as part of the ongoing pipeline wars and the recent ban in Alberta on BC wine imports (what a crazy thing between 2 NDP provinces!!)

But you know who gets off a little easier from Alberta? Partners in accounting firms and such. Since they have to pay prorated provincial income tax all across the country they already have some of their vacant home tax paid too. You just can’t make this stuff up. Unless you are NDP. So a partner at a big 4 firm making $500,000 a year will already have a (very approximately) $5,500 credit with the BC government towards their second home. Granted that’ll only cover the first $275,000.

(Please note all these numbers are low, I used 11% but just checked and see that for 2018 BC income taxes are much higher than that, as high as 16.8% over $150,000/y, which is insane but also increases the amount that is exempt from the second property tax. Of course the federal government, no tax slouches themselves, have 5 categories now and so if you make $205,000/y in BC you are at right about 50% tax before HST, carbon taxes, property taxes, empty house taxes, fees, etc. Why work any harder than that? It’s crazy. But equality of outcome is the goal. Except for the 1%.)

#41 My Mommy is a Realturd on 03.08.18 at 6:43 pm

But Mommy – You said that “homes only go up in value and that renting was a waste of money”. I hate you Mommy – I hate you!

#42 LoftLad on 03.08.18 at 6:43 pm

Observation on new construction building in New Westminster. Two towers on waterfront with 300 assignment sales posted on web. Magenta and two blues dime. They are now installing drywall before windows are completed. Good thing we have passed rainy season. What happens when everyone bails on completion?

#43 For those about to flop... on 03.08.18 at 6:45 pm

#7 renter in Surrey on 03.08.18 at 6:10 pm
houses in Langley are still 1 mil+ though
30% correction is not going to make them affordable

it is different in Canada somehow

///////////////////////////////

Except the 64 that aren’t…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/index.php?attribute_terms=&has_photos=0&days_on_zolo=0&ptype_condo=0&ptype_townhouse=0&ptype_house=1&stype=&min_price=&max_price=1000000&min_beds=0&min_baths=0&min_sqft=0&openhouse_search=0&filter=1&sarea=Langley&s_r=1&search_order=2

#44 Samuel on 03.08.18 at 6:45 pm

In BC I agree the stage is set for a major correction. The dippers will be blamed for the ensuing job losses, foreclosures, divorces and suicides. The Liberals will sweep the next election and promise to bring back growth and prosperity. It could coincide with the bank of Canada once again lowering rates in response to the recession and the feds joining BC and Ontario in propping up housing. The reversal could be swift. If one could time the bottom, could be a very profitable move.

#45 FATLADY on 03.08.18 at 6:46 pm

The BEST way to handle disappointment..

Expect to be disappointed.

“No matter how bad the markets get we still live better than 95% of the world’s population”

So suck it up and have fun with it. You only live once.

#46 Ian on 03.08.18 at 6:47 pm

Absolutely correct Garth.

Although you dogs all know me as a housing bear, I don’t find any of this funny and definitely do not think ‘let it burn’ is anything amusing.

Ontario is in deep, deep trouble with regards to this: 1) jobs in trades and construction artificially too high because of the ridiculous housing bubble, and 2) 300k manufacturing job losses in 15 years under the Liberals, both of which mean real estate related jobs and % if the economy are WAY out of normal range currently. I think the Fraser Institute said 27% of Ontario’s economy. Should be below 10%.

I’m worried about my business. I’m worried about a good friend of mine who is a glazier and normally works on condos, etc. Yes it feels nice to be renting, but none of this is funny.

#47 Bob Dog on 03.08.18 at 6:48 pm

Makes you wonder why on earth our “Government” would put us all in this situation in the first place.

Im pretty sure there were not 10,000 empty houses sitting in Vancouver in the 1980s or 1990s. Globalization did not exist back then. China was not a money fountain back then. Interest rates actually reflected inflation back then. The Money Laundering Queen on the North was just a child back then.

Canadians are naive fools.

#48 Look For A Better Life on 03.08.18 at 6:49 pm

There larger city centers are toast such as Toronto and Vancouver. It will take years for a real bottom to form, and capital appreciation of said property will not be coming back anytime soon. The bubble in Toronto is mega, and so goes a lengthy recovering. Yet, there are small town centers in Canada where Real Estate is affordable, and will survive a big hit depending on the attributes there. Opportunity indeed exists by moving for a younger couple with skills and business ambition to the right location which has it all.

#49 Our pal val on 03.08.18 at 6:49 pm

Well they say there’s a sucker born every minute it’s most certainly true except in this case it’s millions of suckers. Generally speaking when you go to buy a car usually buy within your budget how can everyone get this so wrong buying $1 million house when you’re not a millionnaire ?!! Dah! No we have a nation of slaves … now the banks and governments have everyone by the short and curlyes… turn your head and cough (it up) the doctor says.

#50 Ace Goodheart on 03.08.18 at 6:50 pm

There is a difference between the current decline in house prices in Canadian markets, and historical declines elsewhere. Our declines right now are all being caused by government actions. Regulation, taxes, and the like, designed to crush runaway house prices. And these measures are working.

Take away all of the government measures, and you would have a few minor interest rate increases. House prices would rocket up again, as people could still borrow enough money for the average house to be firmly situated in the “goldilocks” price zone.

We have artificially neutered the market.

Whether or not this is a good idea, will be something to be recorded by history. Government action to control the behaviour of citizens usually goes horribly wrong. Take our “anti street racing” laws, enacted by Premier Dalton “Dad” McGuinty, for the purpose of stopping kids from racing their souped up Hondas on quiet urban streets. This law is now used mostly on our 400 series highways, by the OPP, to heavily fine people and give work for tow truck drivers, with the only requirement being that the person was driving at a “marked departure from the normal rate of speed on the road”. Which means, you don’t even need a radar gun to tow someone’s car and fine them $10 grand.

Unfortunately, the law is not being used as it was intended, to catch street racers.

The above is an example of what happens when a government targets a particular problem with a focused law. Usually, the law ends up being used for something else, some other purpose entirely unrelated. If you want to take away people’s civil liberties, just complain to government that something is wrong and you need help. They will enact a law, which will then be used for a completely different purpose by the authorities who are in charge of enforcing it.

That is the tragedy of government intervention.

My main concern right now with the housing problem is that the laws being enacted to reduce the prices of houses, are going to be used for other purposes. This may or may not have any permanent effect on the market price of a house. But it will remove people’s civil liberties and human rights. The market may find ways of getting around these laws, then you would have even more expensive houses, that are even more difficult to purchase.

At any rate, a real estate crash caused by government meddling is not going to end well. You have two, and not one, negative things, happening at once. People lose their rights, and their houses.

#51 Padmavati on 03.08.18 at 6:52 pm

Just hedge yourself with cash if we have deflation, gold, gold stocks and land if we have inflation. It’s really that simple

#52 BlorgDorg on 03.08.18 at 6:52 pm

Garth is totally right, but I still say let it burn as well.

Recession was always inevitable ever since we papered over the last one with 0-40 mortgages and near-free money. A soft landing was only ever a dream — human nature saw to that even before the politicians made it worse.

If you haven’t already been recession-proofing your job, portfolio, family, life; then you haven’t been paying attention. Maybe not too late yet, but it’s clear 2018 and 2019 are going to devastate many people.

Who cares if houses get cheaper? The economy needs a good, hard, reset to get back in line with fundamentals.

#53 Randy on 03.08.18 at 6:54 pm

People are just so incredibly dumb. Land and property ownership is a myth. How can you ‘really’ own something that will have a ‘permanent lien’ on it ? The Government owns your property. You never own it even after you pay off the mortgage. Fail to pay you property taxes (permanent lien) and they can take your property and sell it. Home and Property ownership is a lie and a very bad joke.

#54 Only the 5th inning on 03.08.18 at 6:55 pm

You will be wrong a while longer. This housing bubble will not burst no matter what the government does until the housing bubble in China bursts. The housing bubble in China is 10 years away from its peak, which means prices in Canada will hold steady and slowly continue to climb higher over the next 10 years. Canada’s housing bubble will outlast this blog.

#55 Dave on 03.08.18 at 6:55 pm

Most hard working folks want a house, car, vacations and savings.

House prices are sooo extreme that most of us feel poor. Hence anything is better then current state.

Let prices burn, sadly is the only option left

#56 Dolce Vita on 03.08.18 at 6:57 pm

#12 Mark

I don’t buy the rosy picture the Bank posits.

If that were all true, OSFI would not have stepped in with B20 which by recent estimates has clipped 20% of their new customers, unable to qualify – which by the way, affects their future earnings.

#57 under the radar on 03.08.18 at 6:57 pm

#27 – If you are planning to stay put for 6 plus years or more buy as close to 416 core as you can. Do your home work on location. Buy the worst house in the best neighbourhood you can afford. Location means everything in real estate.

#58 Don Regan on 03.08.18 at 6:59 pm

From my little neck of the woods,on the west side of
Vancouver. Went for a stroll yesterday along Angus Lands. Last year properties sold within a few days
above $3 M. This property has been reduced a few times now. Last price reduction this week down approx another
$500K to $2,499,000. I know of many properties that
have dropped a couple of hundred thousand, to many
to post. Whats really is interesting are that there is a dozen or so new homes under construction that will be
asking over $5 mil when completed this year.

#59 Lawnboy on 03.08.18 at 7:01 pm

1. Where’s the dog in that scene?
2. I think they can buff that out!

#60 JK on 03.08.18 at 7:04 pm

My politics are right of Attila the Hun but I’ve been flabbergasted about how inept governments at all levels, of all stripes, have blown up this incredible gas bag of a real estate bubble.

It started with the Conservative’s idiotic immigrant investor program to which they added 40 year amortization, zero down mortgages. That twit Cristy Clark, who welcomed anyone with a cheque from China, was finally forced to introduce a foreign buyer tax – but then turned around to juice the market further with $35,000 handouts for property virgins.

In BC, there are 51,000 real estate jobs according to today’s Globe. That’s more than forestry, mining and fishing combined. This is not a situation that’s going to self-correct without some form of intervention.

It is government that created, abated and exacerbated this problem. I’m certainly no NDP-er but I applaud their courage in BC as a government doing something to reverse this relentless rush of lemmings.

There is no such thing as a soft landing when any bubble bursts, anywhere, in any asset class. The country is sick on real estate. We’ve been putting off taking our medicine for way too long. It’ll taste bad, there will be some serious side effects. That’s just the way it is, and the only way it could end.

#61 Smartalox on 03.08.18 at 7:09 pm

Someone posted a link yesterday to an explanation of Thomas Piketty’s work on Capital in the 21st Century.

The central thesis was that returns on invested capital increase at a greater rate than economies can grow. This blog post reinforces that point: Economies expand and contract cyclically, averaging out over time to approximately 2% growth. Investments, particularly liquid ones, can be reallocated quickly (usually by rebalancing) to monetize gains and invest in new growth, averaging 6% or more.

Of course this benefits those with liquid assets more than those without liquid assets (wealth tied to home ownership), or those with debts, such as mortgage and HELOC owers.

The move to cut interest rates and free up credit had the effect of stimulating (some would say over-stimulating) certain sectors of an economy while other sectors were in decline. Normally, that kind of stimulation is enough to boost a sagging economy, and stir demand and re-start growth in other sectors of the general economy.

But a few things were different this time:
– easy credit availability inflated real estate prices way faster than fundamentals
– globalism meant that stimulative money flowed to other nations’ economies, which boosted them, but diluted local effects considerably, as local industry never saw the demand that would have led to a broader recovery.
– capital flowing to distant nations stimulated outflows of cash into (what seemed like) sure and easy investments – like Canadian Real Estate.

There have been some positive demand trends in the local economy, though: young people investing in craft brewing, fancy coffee and donut shops, restaurants and other businesses. Unfortunately most of these are supported by discretionary spending fuelled by consumer credit, and typically not for export. These businesses will get hit hard by the credit crash, as domestic demand dries up.

It remains to be seen how domestic exporters will fare, especially if these Tarrifs get applied heavily. These are our next hope for economic growth.

#62 RudyGQ on 03.08.18 at 7:13 pm

Had a chance to finally sit down and analyze this housing matter in the lower mainland BC particularly Vancouver. Cue the circus music. As one tends to have a better perspective when they are not too close to a situation, being on the other side of the country from the left coast, I would like to offer my 2 cents ($CDN) to this spectacle in which the local government is imposing punishing taxes, levies, legislation, incentives, bylaws, scare tactics and tough talk in order to influence the market into freeing up more housing units.
In my financial opinion this situation is tantamount to The GONG SHOW. (For those under 30 google that last statement). This is classic government pandering to the lathered up masses (a.k.a the financially illiterate disadvantaged) appealing to their base instincts—because logic and reason typically doesn’t get votes.

Unfortunately, my BC friends, these measures will not generate the expected tax revenue as ‘promised’ nor will it free up thousands of rental units. I’ll say it over and over and over and over; the biggest factor that influences the housing market is Mr. Market! For example if you truly want lower housing costs reduce the buyer pool. Historically speaking this happens from a brain drain or economic emigration where masses of work talent (typically young workers) move to regions with better job prospects and life benefits. Will the lower mainland be the exception to this cycle that has been going on globally for centuries? Only time will tell.

#63 Cottingham a bargain on 03.08.18 at 7:14 pm

#8 MF on 03.08.18 at 6:11 pm
#2 Cottingham a bargain on 03.08.18 at 6:05 pm

I keep hearing you say this.

What is the rationale behind it? What does that area offer?

MF
———

Would it matter what I say in terms of rationale or would you simply refute my arguments?

My thoughts are that if a person living in the GTA cannot see the difference between property along Yonge st verses a host of outlying areas from east to west , then I would be simply wasting my time

#64 LET IT BURN! - SCM on 03.08.18 at 7:15 pm

I’ve been saying let it burn for a long time on this blog.

#65 Greater Fool on 03.08.18 at 7:17 pm

Sorry again, Garth but LET IT BURN!
I want to see the circus on fire. This situation is stupid, ppl need to learn by getting hurt.

#66 30 cent loonie? on 03.08.18 at 7:17 pm

50 cent loonie by 2019?
40 cent loonie by 2020?
30 cent loonie by 2021?
20 cent loonie by 2022?

#67 Dolce Vita on 03.08.18 at 7:17 pm

We are just a 2 months into B20 and weeks on the West Coast of NDP efforts to correct/crash their RE market.

What you posted about today has yet to happen – the recession.

It probably will as history shows us this.

Yes many will be hurt if a recession happens. The worst will be those that acted foolishly with borrowed cash. They will be, in essence, taken out of the economy for about decade.

This is good for the economy, a purging of the foolish use of borrowed money, those that gambled huge sums thinking RE would only ever go up – the Greater Fools among us.

That money will then be put to better use by others.

Cold, true. But rational. It is the way things work in an economy as you point out and for the better.

I will say my greatest worry is that the roll back in RE asset values may yet be the largest ever seen in Canada as this was the largest bubble ever in Canada, maybe 50% to 70% in FOMO crazed RE markets – half, if that, in other RE markets (as fear works its way everywhere).

From that hypothesis, the roll back in RE asset values (well, on paper) is the only objection I have as the innocent lose money because of the foolish actions of others.

Tough call on the consequences. But in the end, you respect the wisdom of the market.

#68 Dead Cat Bounce on 03.08.18 at 7:18 pm

Their still selling the magic Kool Aid in the Okanagan !
This one cracked me up !!!
This property is a must see. Lots of updates done throughout the years.
50’s 60’s ??? Updates ??? Painted Basement Floor !!!

List Price $ 449,900
Accessed $ 338,000

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/19159270/403-NELSON-AVE-Penticton-British-Columbia-V2A2L3-PE-Main-North

https://www.bcassessment.ca/Property/Info/QTAwMDA5NFRQTQ==

Built in 1940 !!! CRAZY CRAZY CRAZY !!!

#69 Trocxi on 03.08.18 at 7:18 pm

#38 Entrepreneur
With the NDP (/Greens) new rules British Columbians middles class will bounce back to make our communities/province productive once again. As it should be.
Obviously you have no idea what communism is/was/ or may be.
With NDP(/Greens) new rules BC middle class will end up in the sh1tter. As is should notbe.
Wanna make a bet?
(It horrifies me to think that people who think like you are actually walking our streets…)

#70 kommykim on 03.08.18 at 7:18 pm

Isn’t it better for the Government to be a bit of a prick and deflate the bubble now rather than letting it inflate further and explode with an even bigger bang?

#71 Cottingham a bargain on 03.08.18 at 7:19 pm

30 Boombust on 03.08.18 at 6:34 pm
#2

What a selfish and short-sighted prick you are; people like you just don’t “get it” and never will.
——

People like you should stop being so angry and be glad there are people like me from whom you can rent from.

I offer a good product at a reasonable rent with good terms , always .

#72 Minnie Driver on 03.08.18 at 7:19 pm

#39 TRUMP on 03.08.18 at 6:39 pm
Just more of the same…..
That’s all it is.
—————

After watching Trump on the telly today I was curious about which Chinese cars were coming to the USA.
Turns out Buick makes cars in China, and sells 5x as many there as they do in the USA. The real threat comes in 2019 when Trumpchi motors is expected to start shipping to the USA. Now is that crazy or what folks?

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/17/business/china-gac-trumpchi.html

#73 ANON on 03.08.18 at 7:21 pm


Turn the bow into the wave, boys

#74 45north on 03.08.18 at 7:25 pm

the ryguy: Agree 100% with everything Garth said…and Im still in the “let it burn” camp.
What other options are there?

provincial governments such as British Columbia and Ontario need to recognize that a major collapse in real estate is imminent. Rather than destroy the housing market they need to protect it.

Here’s some options:

don’t put a tax on foreigners

don’t put in universal rent controls

don’t put a tax on empty houses

don’t increase property taxes

don’t put a tax on speculation

It’s much like the Treaty of Versailles in 1919. Every single thing they did was wrong.

#75 Mark on 03.08.18 at 7:25 pm

“I don’t buy the rosy picture the Bank posits.
If that were all true, OSFI would not have stepped in with B20 which by recent estimates has clipped 20% of their new customers, unable to qualify – which by the way, affects their future earnings.”

B20 was a measure by and for the bankers, to improve their earnings by restraining the ability of competitors to write loans in a well-past-the-peak RE market. Future earnings will be augmented by B20 as the framework makes it much more difficult for competitors to step in and provide competitive options to reduce spreads.

A record percentage of Canadians already own, a number even greater than that experienced at the peak in the United States, so I don’t put a lot of credence to the argument that the banks have left profit on the table by not expanding loan volume. The emphasis here going forward is spread expansion against the existing stock of RE-backed loans, rather than expansion of such loans in absolute terms.

Expect the big national banks to start pushing for a greater agenda of regulation of the provincially-regulated credit union sector, if it doesn’t implode first.

#76 -=jwk=- on 03.08.18 at 7:25 pm

Based on this math, there’s no reason why the banks can’t or won’t perform well going forward.

They make a lot of money originating loans. that business dries up, they make less money.

for those thinking they are going to vulch; get real. first you need all cash as financing will stop. the money supply stops. then you can’t buy anywya because the property has a huge mortgage on it going through foreclosure. There simply aren’t any great deals, everything grinds to a halt.

Yonge north of the 401 is a wasteland, worst traffic in all of north america, no serveces and no local schools its hell on earth and no on wants to live there. anyone who can,moves south or east as soon as they can, and if prices crash, they will move in droves to where they really want to be…

#77 Darryl on 03.08.18 at 7:26 pm

While I was ordering some building materials at my local Home Depot I got into a short conversation with a long term employee at the desk . He mentioned that business was very slow . I asked if that was normal for this time of year . He said that this wasn’t normally a slow time of year and that he had not seen it this slow before .

Yipes

#78 Postmodern Realtorist on 03.08.18 at 7:30 pm

#21 Mark on 03.08.18 at 6:25 pm

Fortunately Canada’s banks have positioned themselves against a collapsing housing market..

[RBC] suggests removing RBC’s roughly $100-billion in insured mortgages from the discussion since they don’t pose a real credit risk to the bank,

The real losers will be the indebted homeowners, owning a depreciating asset and facing increasingly expensive (in real terms) costs of finance.
*************

Or, in the world the rest of us inhabit, the homeowners walk and the CMHC losses require a Gov. bailout and the real losers are the taxpayers.

#79 crdt on 03.08.18 at 7:30 pm

Broken record, is what this blog has turned into. Save the rich, because the poor will be poorer, not realizing the poor are already poorer. It does not matter if the poor peoples’ houses are worth a gazzillion $$ if they spend every moment worrying about their mortgage payments.

This colossal cluster fack has been created by all of us. An immense amount of capital has been mis-allocated and continuing the song and does in perpetuity will not save us from ourselves.

Amazing how this blog is suddenly championing that which it has been against for so long. I suppose it is all about the $$, if it is good for $$ it is right and good.

The blog has never been for or against a housing correction. It just tells you the event is inevitable, and how to survive. – Garth

#80 Mark on 03.08.18 at 7:33 pm

“They make a lot of money originating loans. that business dries up, they make less money.”

The Canadian banks don’t really make money on originating mortgage loans. They make it on holding the loans financed by their borrowings. Origination and sale into MBS is only a very tiny chunk of business, and the nature of the financing market in Canada implies that gains from MBS sales are minimal. Unlike in the USA where selling MBS implied capitalization of 30 years of spread.

But yes, it will hurt the mortgage brokers who do rely upon fees from lenders for origination. As a large swath of customers will have little choice but to renew at the rate offered by the lender instead of going through a new appraisal, exposing their reduced employment, etc. Since a large number of loans issued over the past number of years have been heavily discounted, forced renewal at the ‘posted’ rates will shape up to be a long-term disaster for many families. Incidentally, the requirement has been to qualify at the posted rate for the past few years precisely for that reason. So yeah, the mortgage broker channels will suffer severely as most of the renewal business is brought back into the branches.

#81 Dave Ahem on 03.08.18 at 7:34 pm

Ace Goodheart, excellent comment. Best I’ve read in a long time. Nice to see a smart comment on here. Rare but nice.

#82 Trumpkin on 03.08.18 at 7:34 pm

Who remembers the mid 1970’s when interest rates on savings accounts were 10% years before the savings & loans industry in the US collapsed ? We have seen this movie before. Get ready. Cash is King.

#83 Darryl on 03.08.18 at 7:36 pm

Buy a condo with your credit card . What could go wrong ?
—————————————————————–
https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2018/03/07/condo-of-your-dreams-buy-it-online-with-your-credit-card.html
—————————————

#84 MF on 03.08.18 at 7:36 pm

#63 Cottingham a bargain on 03.08.18 at 7:14 pm

“My thoughts are that if a person living in the GTA cannot see the difference between property along Yonge st verses a host of outlying areas from east to west , then I would be simply wasting my time”

-Yonge street goes way for north. My thoughts are Yonge is gold but not anything north of Rutherford/Carville.

I’m at Yonge and Steeles and still feel too far north. When I buy it will most likely be along Eglinton. As someone else mentioned, small house in a good area.

MF

#85 Andrew Woburn on 03.08.18 at 7:36 pm

Samuel on 03.08.18 at 6:45 pm
In BC I agree the stage is set for a major correction. The dippers will be blamed for the ensuing job losses, foreclosures, divorces and suicides. The Liberals will sweep the next election and promise to bring back growth and prosperity.
=================

Agreed, but the Libs will just come back with another crew of carpet-baggers and grifters, rape the province and get kicked out after the smell cannot be ignored. Then we will be back to another crew of fake SJW’s handing out goodies to their union backers.

After living here for thirty years I am reasonably sure the “Peanuts” parable about Charlie Brown always having the football snatched away was based on BC voter behaviour.

#86 Figmund Sreud on 03.08.18 at 7:37 pm

There is no scenario in which a politically-created housing crash does not end in economic reversal.
_______________________________

Well, … all part of politics. Most likely accurate statement, …

Anyway, … politics – real politics, in every society that has ever existed and will ever exist – is always about who gets what benefits and who has to pay which costs, but you’d never guess that from the language used in politics, …

Best,

F.S. – Comox, BC.

#87 Mark on 03.08.18 at 7:37 pm

“#66 30 cent loonie? on 03.08.18 at 7:17 pm “

How about a $1.30 loonie in a few years, the consequence of a pan-Canadian debt deflation, increasing US inflation, and very little money in the pockets of consuming Canadians to spend on foreign imported goods and services due to the necessity of repaying CAD$ mortgage debt.

#88 Joe Schmoe on 03.08.18 at 7:38 pm

Got a new wee dawgie at Christmas. Procured a new Prairie Yacht (canoe). Tied a bunch of flies this winter.

Going to be a great summer.

No debt. Diversified portfolio.

Snoozing through all this nonsense.

#89 Zapstrap on 03.08.18 at 7:39 pm

If it ends up being really bad … Trump will need a northern wall too.

#90 Vulture-eye View on 03.08.18 at 7:45 pm

Still lots of half-built inventory in Ireland if you’re handy.
If you are looking for better weather, Spain has even more. It’s unreal.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/weekend-read-the-ghost-estates-that-still-haunt-ireland-1.3181498

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/spain-empty-cities_us_56ba6221e4b0b40245c47dff

#91 Slow death on 03.08.18 at 7:46 pm

What’s worse, a slow death or a fast death?

It’s going to happen, so burn baby burn!

#92 Rural Rick on 03.08.18 at 7:46 pm

SM is back on board at number 13.

#93 Dolce Vita on 03.08.18 at 7:49 pm

#75 Mark

Do look up what “OSFI” stands for and while you are at it, look up what their mandate is.

In that, you will have your answer and understanding that what the Banks tell you is largely Marketing and for the Consumption of future investors.

Facts, as presented by our intrepid Blogger, report a 20% clipping in new mortgage customers.

Curious the Bank had nothing to say about how that earnings shortfall is to be mitigated; hence, my “rosy picture” Comment.

#94 Impending doom on 03.08.18 at 7:54 pm

Great blog Garth, really appreciate it!

I agree 110% with your analysis, however, why not make a blog post about how the situation would be better handled?

It’s too bad these kids aren’t willing to move away, I grew up on van island and when I turned 18 I couldn’t wait to get outta there. Moved to Alberta for a good paying job, bought a townhouse at 24, bought a house at 30 and still renting the townhouse out. Couldn’t have made a better decision, would have been miserable if I stayed there. I guess that would be the best solution to this problem, but how do you convince these mills to pull the trigger? Just sucks that I’ll be hurt (less) for the stubborness of others.

#95 Raging Ranter on 03.08.18 at 7:54 pm

The conversations on this pathetic blog recently show most people don’t get this.

Or, some of us get it just fine, think it’s inevitable, and have taken a fatalistic attitude toward the necessary and impending reset, however miserable the intervening years are. Personally, I’ve seen things get way too far beyond stupid for way too long. As much as I am dreading a serious recession (which this country has not seen since the early 1990s – get ready Millennials, if you thought 2009 was bad in Canada, you ain’t seen nothing yet) I am dreading a continuation of the malinvestment, tragic misallocation of capital, and speculative mania even more. Not because any of those things hurt me personally, but because the longer we wait, the dumber things get, and the further and harder we will fall. We should have had our reckoning in 2009.

There is no avoiding our Minskey moment, and no avoiding the miserable, grinding, soul-destroying process of deleveraging, retrenchment, and eventually….. recovery. So let’s get on with it. Now please. The longer we wait, the more it will hurt.

Consider this: If Japan had imploded in 1980 instead of 1990, maybe, just maybe they’d have had a lost decade instead of a lost 28 years and counting. Do we really want this party to continue one second longer? Think hard.

#96 pathcontrolmonk on 03.08.18 at 7:55 pm

Garth, how about a survey of your readership? Something like this perhaps:

What are your thoughts on government intervention if it results in crashing the housing market?

1) Let free market capitalism run its course.
2) I don’t care because I live in Tuktayuktuk.
3) Schadenfreude.

#97 Millmech on 03.08.18 at 7:57 pm

Is that India’s Prime Minister in his first photo op in picture in Canada?

#98 ANON on 03.08.18 at 7:57 pm

#83 Darryl on 03.08.18 at 7:36 pm
Buy a condo with your credit card . What could go wrong ?

I’m sniping the Amazon Deal of the Day for that, with free shipping to …wait… ummm…nevermind, I thought for a second I was on RFD. BRB, gotta post this deal !!!111

#99 Chelsea on 03.08.18 at 7:58 pm

#53 Randy

Your comment is RIGHT ON … this is truth not fiction. We have been saying this for some time, and believe what you are saying. The Government OWNS your property …. either way. So, if owner’s think they alone own their home and land, think again! Not many out there know of this knowledge, and be very careful if you miss a mortgage payment, or you are unable to cough up your property taxes, you are if for a nasty surprise!

Cheers!

#100 luke8929 on 03.08.18 at 7:59 pm

Trump is going to put an end to the Canada/Mexico NAFTA scam which is import goods into Canada/Mexico and then sneak it in with no tariffs under NAFTA, China being the largest offender currently. The Asia-Pacific countries that just signed the new CTTPP are hoping to do the same thing, the Americans are onto it. The exemption for Steel and Aluminum afforded Canada/Mexico are temporary, either they close the loophole or US will leave NAFTA. Lots of importers making their money this way on the west coast, not positive for housing prices when they get put out of business.

#101 Chelsea on 03.08.18 at 8:00 pm

Oops! sorry should read last line ” You are in for a nasty surprise”

#102 Sydneysider on 03.08.18 at 8:03 pm

Today’s post reminds me of the story of the boy who cried wolf.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/04/

Perhaps this time the wolf will really show up.

#103 Trumpocalypse2018 on 03.08.18 at 8:04 pm

7 Days to the Ides of March !!!!!!!

False flag event with NK now being staged.

Iran and Saudis now at loggerheads.

Threats lurking from the most unexpected places everywhere.

And Canada’s real estate economic fraud is now about to implode.

PREPARE

#104 Mark. on 03.08.18 at 8:05 pm

#26 Terry on 03.08.18 at 6:32 pm

“and the odds are good a recession will ensue”

There it is. The dreaded “R” word. I was waiting to see when you would start using the “R” again Garth. We are already way ahead of you on this one. I predict a Recession to hit Canada beginning this summer and deepening into all of 2019.
*******””””””

The recession actually began in 2013, when the price of oil flatlined, which implied an enhanced distributive ratio factor that in fact, created a surplus of dilutive, but high yielding equities that no externalized multinational will now touch with a dead dingo’s donger.

#105 Samson Nights on 03.08.18 at 8:06 pm

In other words, Basement Renting Deplorables, keep the housing bubble bubbling or you’re all be out of work soon, living under a bridge.

Tonight’s fear mongering submission brought to you by the Fake News Network (Canadian Real Estate Association, Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, and the Canadian Bankers Association).

#106 dakkie on 03.08.18 at 8:06 pm

Foreign Investment into Canada Has Collapsed by 26% in 2017

http://investmentwatchblog.com/foreign-investment-into-canada-has-collapsed-by-26-in-2017/

#107 Don Haraguchi on 03.08.18 at 8:07 pm

Geez………And I thought yesterday’s entry was fear mongering.

#108 islander on 03.08.18 at 8:11 pm

“Be careful what you wish for”………….no kidding………
Of course, the 1980’s is so last century and Greece – puleez- couldn’t happen here!

Anyone who thinks the banks, after a major real estate crash, are going to be handing out mortgages to half baked clients with 20-30% down, should think again. Forget ‘moving’ up – you won’t be able to sell your current property to anyone. First of all, most of your ‘perspective clients’ will be unemployed, the rest will be struggling to stay afloat. Secondly, even the idea of ‘homeownership’ will be an anathema to most.
And yes, ‘the wealthy’ will swoop in, some years down the road, for the fire sale – pay in cash and turn the property around in their own sweet time (you’ll be retired, or worse, by then).

Garth’s advise is good – go live your life………just don’t make real estate the central core of your ‘faith’!

#109 Dolce Vita on 03.08.18 at 8:13 pm

#90 Vulture-eye View

Add Italy to your list and better yet, you do not have to do any handy work, it’s all good to go with marble and wood, as long as you are OK with Reverse FOMO appreciations (with a warmer climate than Ireland; although, the Irish make up for that easily with their ways).

Here is a modest condo listing in Rome where the important thing is to scroll and look to the Right for the chart where the RE value is trying to become asymptotic with the X-Axis:

https://www.immobiliare.it/65013488-Vendita-Attico-Mansarda-via-rivodutri-01-Roma.html

Or for the Eat, Pray, Love crowd – their darling Tuscan hills and just outside of Florence, this for the well healed “I need a detached home with orchards, vineyards and where I can cold press my own Virgin DOCG Olive Oil”…again, observe the Right hand side RE value asymptotic X-Axis chart (small, recent bounce in price, a blip if you ask me):

https://www.immobiliare.it/63443374-Vendita-Casa-indipendente-via-di-Baroncelli-Bagno-a-Ripoli.html

For those that doubt there is an EXTREME RE bubble in Canada and what happens to that value when the bubble bursts.

#110 Andrew Woburn on 03.08.18 at 8:19 pm

Eleven countries have now agreed to proceed with a free trade agreement the US refused to join. I suspect this is an important benchmark in the decline of US global influence.

I have wondered for a while how an increasing assertive world would react to US control especially after Washington announced it would levy huge penalties against European banks for violating US policies that had no legal force in Europe.

As I understand it, the lever for US enforcement was US based control over the international currency transfer network (SWIFT). US courts apparently interpreted this to mean SWIFT could cut off foreign banks that violated US law essentially putting them out of business.

Up till now, the US has been trusted to uphold international system standards but if it is seen to use these systems to enforce its own policies, other countries will pull away. For different reasons, this has already happened with the registry of web names and GPS management.

Trump is not directly to blame but his “America First” message is now speeding the process. The world is getting the message that America is no longer reliable and worse, its system of checks and balances is not enough to constrain an impetuous charlatan. Even if the next US president is wiser than Solomon, the damage has been done for at least a generation.

I expect there will be a continuing migration of important international organizations out of the US to neutral locations like Switzerland or perhaps Singapore. The coming fintech revolution could eventually see SWIFT replaced by an international payment system based somewhere other than a major country with its own political agenda.

#111 acdel on 03.08.18 at 8:19 pm

#95 Raging Ranter

My thoughts exactly; it is coming and it will not be pretty!

Good post/blog to you and Garth and a few others that posted well thought out opinions.

#112 renter in Surrey on 03.08.18 at 8:20 pm

#43

Those are old POS that should be priced below 150K at best.

#113 Van City Granny on 03.08.18 at 8:22 pm

#90 Vulture-eye View on 03.08.18 at 7:45 pm
If you are looking for better weather, Spain has even more. It’s unreal.
***********
Well, we can at least be thankful for all the rain, or we’d have real problems.

#114 DON on 03.08.18 at 8:23 pm

#44 Samuel on 03.08.18 at 6:45 pm
In BC I agree the stage is set for a major correction. The dippers will be blamed for the ensuing job losses, foreclosures, divorces and suicides. The Liberals will sweep the next election and promise to bring back growth and prosperity. It could coincide with the bank of Canada once again lowering rates in response to the recession and the feds joining BC and Ontario in propping up housing. The reversal could be swift. If one could time the bottom, could be a very profitable move.
*****************

Note: The BC Liberal Corruption is still coming out, the carpet sits atop a major pile of dirt. It is still oozzzing out and will continue to do so. That is how you discredit your opponent while they are trying to find their footing. BC is do for a major corruption inquiry that will put Quebec to shame.

What was Christy Clark’s latest event, visiting TREB conference and the press wasn’t invited. Is she now a realtor? Funny place to hide.

I am hoping a real conservative party in BC. Not a corrupt social credit party acting as one.

#115 I believe everything on television on 03.08.18 at 8:25 pm

#33 jess on 03.08.18 at 6:36 pm
Lehman to Pay $2.4 Billion to End Crisis-Era Mortgage Claims
By Tiffany Kary

Judge rules on mortgage-backed securities from pre-2008 loans

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy estate will pay $2.38 billion to compensate for its role in the previous decade’s mortgage crisis, not 11b.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-08/lehman-brothers-payout-on-crisis-era-mortgage-claims-in-sight

——
if you think Lehman bros. were dodgey, cheka out the official bio of Willi Lehmann-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willi_Lehmann

#116 NoName on 03.08.18 at 8:27 pm

How is that model 3 coming along…

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/elon-musk-sides-with-trump-on-trade-with-china-citing-25-percent-import-duty-on-american-cars.html

#117 renter in Surrey on 03.08.18 at 8:34 pm

#34

Why am I delusional?
Because my observations do not confirm buble bursting theory?
500k reduction on 5 mil houses sounds entertaining but makes no difference for average earner.
Btw, I’m in top 10 -15% in Canada and probably in U.S
Show me decent house for sale at 250k then I believe you.

#118 Smoking Man on 03.08.18 at 8:39 pm

#103 Trumpocalypse2018 on 03.08.18 at 8:04 pm
7 Days to the Ides of March !!!!!!!

False flag event with NK now being staged.

Iran and Saudis now at loggerheads.

Threats lurking from the most unexpected places everywhere.

And Canada’s real estate economic fraud is now about to implode.

PREPARE
……

Rocket Man to met Trump at the White House. News moves to fast for you.

#119 DON on 03.08.18 at 8:46 pm

#14 Blacksheep on 03.08.18 at 6:18 pm

“The fact that said investors will not need to bail on mass and not be adding new product on mass to the market made me ask why, RE prices are expected to significantly drop, even with the full contingent of NDP taxes, as presented?”

************************

Did Garth answer your question in tonight’s blog post?

The downward momentum was occurring before the introduction of any spec tax. You can bet the politicians will maximize the perception of doing something while maximizing their chances of being re-elected. The spec tax will be tweaked or else political suicide. Recessions are always around the corner and we are much nearer to one than we were. Unfortunately human nature is always around the corner repeating the mistakes of the past.

Sincerely.

#120 Mark on 03.08.18 at 8:46 pm

“Do look up what “OSFI” stands for and while you are at it, look up what their mandate is.
In that, you will have your answer and understanding that what the Banks tell you is largely Marketing and for the Consumption of future investors.”

I know exactly what the OSFI is. Its the organization which allowed, for example, the banks to leverage extremely into subprime mortgages insured by the CMHC. The capital thus allocated due to their decision made borrowing for business, rather than consumptive purposes, more expensive.

The OSFI may nominally be a government department, but like most aspects of government regulation of the financial sector, there is almost certainly a revolving door between industry and the regulator.

The regulated Canadian national banks were already being extremely prudent in lending policy, so OSFI B20 intervention was not particularly necessary. However, by enacting such regulations, the ability for competitors to come into the market and to suppress spreads has been made significantly more difficult. Meaning that the banks will enjoy increasing levels of profitability as the RE market falls and spreads expand.

“Curious the Bank had nothing to say about how that earnings shortfall is to be mitigated; hence, my “rosy picture””

What ‘earnings shortfall’? Bank profits have never been better despite falling mortgage activity, and profitability will continue to accelerate alongside spread expansion. Most of the big-5 have committed to particularly large courses of return of capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. A trend that will accelerate as capital is not needed in the primary business of Canada’s banks, and that is, to backstop their investment portfolios.

#121 For those about to flop... on 03.08.18 at 8:48 pm

Liar in Surrey on 03.08.18 at 8:20 pm
#43

Those are old POS that should be priced below 150K at best.

/////////////////////////

Why didn’t you just say that you thought places in Langley were still overpriced in the first place?

I noticed last week when someone asked you why you come here and lie you didn’t respond.

I knew I was wasting my time on you, but there’s some impressionable on here and I’ve seen you posting your crap on here for a while and you should be ashamed…

M43BC

#122 south burnaby gardener on 03.08.18 at 8:48 pm

Garth, so who in BC is less likely to be hit hard as a result of the assumed economic downturn created by the federal and BC governments?
Public service employees? Retired people who rent and have balanced portfolios? People who live within their means, again have a balanced portfolio and work for ?? in the private sector?
Thank you.

#123 DON on 03.08.18 at 8:52 pm

#54 Only the 5th inning on 03.08.18 at 6:55 pm
You will be wrong a while longer. This housing bubble will not burst no matter what the government does until the housing bubble in China bursts. The housing bubble in China is 10 years away from its peak, which means prices in Canada will hold steady and slowly continue to climb higher over the next 10 years. Canada’s housing bubble will outlast this blog.
************************

That’s funny – because I provided links outlining the growing concerns over the housing bubble in China. It has been a continuing topic in International Headlines.

#124 Mark on 03.08.18 at 8:53 pm

Or, in the world the rest of us inhabit, the homeowners walk and the CMHC losses require a Gov. bailout and the real losers are the taxpayers.

I suspect the banks and “the economy” will calibrate interest rates and price declines to be such that not that many people will actually default, but rather, will hang on in hope of further upside rather than throw in the towel, walk away, and declare personal bankruptcy.

Just when a family, for example, thinks that they have things under solidly under control, for instance, the rates will rise a little bit more. Or the roof will need to be replaced. The next decade or two will be an existence of making payments but accumulating no equity. Just look at the Japanese experience of those who bought at the peak — almost none of them were foreclosed upon, but many have spent post-1989 basically making payments, even at low interest rates, only to have prices on their housing units decline further, eliminating any accumulation of paid in equity.

#125 Fatman on 03.08.18 at 8:55 pm

Home ownership rates by country:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

Land price inflation is a global phenom — why are we so myopic we think it is just here? Other countries have had to solve the problem of unaffordable housing, why can’t we take a field trip and copy some of the better examples?

Like Singapore (middle of article):

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1879216/bolstering-hong-kongs-home-ownership-rate

#126 OttawaMike on 03.08.18 at 9:11 pm

Also not mentioned is the loss of home equity and its spinoff HELOC wealth effect.
People spend more when they think their net worth is higher. Also banks extend more on a secured HELOC.

#127 Pete from St. Cesaire on 03.08.18 at 9:12 pm

Bring on the conflagration. You only get tempered by going through the fire. These greater fools have no idea about the real world. This will be a huge life-lesson for them to build upon.

#128 Surf city on 03.08.18 at 9:21 pm

#118 Smoking Man on 03.08.18 at 8:39 pm

#103 Trumpocalypse2018 on 03.08.18 at 8:04 pm
7 Days to the Ides of March !!!!!!!

False flag event with NK now being staged.

Iran and Saudis now at loggerheads.

Threats lurking from the most unexpected places everywhere.

And Canada’s real estate economic fraud is now about to implode.

PREPARE
……

Rocket Man to met Trump at the White House. News moves to fast for you.

/
..

It’s rocket man meets the dotard…

and then Trump will get a Nobel peace prize

can u surf yet?

#129 Zapstrap on 03.08.18 at 9:31 pm

#88 Joe Schmoe on 03.08.18 at 7:38 pm

Got a new wee dawgie at Christmas. Procured a new Prairie Yacht (canoe). Tied a bunch of flies this winter.

Don’t forget the chironomids.

#130 Keith in Rio on 03.08.18 at 9:37 pm

DELETED

#131 Nick on 03.08.18 at 9:38 pm

Growth fueled by debt. What happens once people have to pay down debt or can’t get more credit? Recession. Why do you think everyone and their mothers promote spending and bigger and bigger debt loads? Because that’s “economic growth “.

Welp folks some day you have to pay the piper and save or reduce debt and when that happens to Canada’s glorious consumption based economy we’re dead.

#132 acdel on 03.08.18 at 9:42 pm

#118 Smoking Man

At least they will meet; let’s hope sanity will prevail; the world has enough to worry about.

#133 Newcomer on 03.08.18 at 9:48 pm

Garth, I’d love to see a post on alternative policies to deal with the situation.

For my part, federally, I’d limit CMHC insurance to a maximum of four times income and I would only allow capital gains exemptions on that portion of the sale price that was used to purchase another principal residence (could be carried over). That would, of course, also crash the market, but it would also stop future bubbles, so it would be worth it.

Provincially, nothing better than what the Greendeepee has come up with springs to mind.

Dogs?

#134 tccontrarian on 03.08.18 at 9:48 pm

In summation then, the ‘artificial’ measures to stimulate economies BY GOVERNMENTS (not just here, but almost world-wide), mainly by extending credit at historically low levels, have fueled the MOTHER of all asset bubbles (RE, Stock Markets).
Upon seeing how the sheeple has gobbled up HUGE debt (mortgage, auto, student, consumer), they’re now OVER-REACTING with ‘corrective’ measures (ie. B20, taxes on this or that), hoping that things will ‘normalize’…and to show that they’re ‘doing something’.

Or…….alternatively, it was a diabolically well-planned scheme (by banksters/governments…the 0.1% who like to stay private and away from limelight), to basically enslave the masses but without chains (ie. debt-slavery).

Who’s with me on the latter version?

TCC

#135 Keith in Rio on 03.08.18 at 9:52 pm

Heading back home to Rio next week for a while. Funny that I consider an adopted country home, but, it is what it is.

The people here are beautiful, the genuine measure of any country you visit, get a few beer in them and they will tell you without hesitation that they would welcome the military dictatorship again if it meant an end to the corruption and endemic financial ruin brought to the country by the bankers and socialists. When yo mention it would take killing a thousand of them, or so ,they don’t seem to have a problem with it, because the damage caused by the “white collar” crimes against humanity which have been committed here are far in excess of those documented by the Germans in WWII.

Mr. Dressup is just getting started.

#136 Postmodern Realtorist on 03.08.18 at 10:12 pm

#124 Mark on 03.08.18 at 8:53 pm

Or, in the world the rest of us inhabit, the homeowners walk and the CMHC losses require a Gov. bailout and the real losers are the taxpayers.

I suspect the banks and “the economy” will calibrate interest rates and price declines to be such that not that many people will actually default….. Just look at the Japanese experience of those who bought at the peak — almost none of them were foreclosed upon

***********
Konichi whaaat?
The USA had some foreclosures not long ago.
They still seem to have a lot of unsold inventory…..

http://www.thehardmoneypros.com/REO_bank_owned_property_directory.shtm

#137 waiting on the westcoast on 03.08.18 at 10:14 pm

We are such sooner on this site, let’s drink some kool-aid and swallow this…

http://news.buzzbuzzhome.com/2018/03/5-ontario-cities-poised-huge-housing-boom-next-years.html

#138 BS on 03.08.18 at 10:14 pm

14 Blacksheep on 03.08.18 at 6:18 pm

The fact that said investors will not need to bail on mass and not be adding new product on mass to the market made me ask why, RE prices are expected to significantly drop, even with the full contingent of NDP taxes, as presented?

Real estate busts take place due to a lack of buyers not a rush to the exits of investors and owners. Look at Toronto. It is less sales driving prices down not increased listings. Inventory is increasing due to a lack of sales not an increase of people wanting to sell.

In a bust, buyers are not just unwilling to buy when prices are tanking but unable due to tightening credit. I expect banks will be including the new taxes when they qualify buyers for a mortgage. Rich foreigners and even Albertan’s will not qualify going forward even if they wanted to buy.

The BC bust will be unique in that it will not only have a lack of buyers due to increasing mortgage rates and tightening credit like most busts, but also a rush to the exits of those who will be impacted by the new spec tax and empty home tax. No other RE bust in history I am aware of had all this come at the same time. A triple whammy.

#139 waiting on the westcoast on 03.08.18 at 10:16 pm

Doomers not sooner… Sigh

#140 A J on 03.08.18 at 10:17 pm

#135 Keith in Rio

*Face Palm*

#141 M on 03.08.18 at 10:19 pm

“The Canadian housing market was doomed anyway, but had the chance of a long, bumpy landing. Doubtful now.”

…Starting with 2015, Canada never ever had the slightest chance of anything long and bumpy. When Canada became the housing it set up for the free fall road to crash, stagnation and 20% unemployment.

Only a self centered ignorant gringo would say “Canada is not Spain” (or Portugal…or Greece)…

And my question is…”WHY?” When I look at the numbers.. PIIGS ‘r us.

…whatever some think and say…it doesn’t matter anymore. With 20% unemployment and 10-15% interest rates,… nothing will move for years. No matter the QE and any other helicopter money trick one might pull.

#142 AGuyInVancouver on 03.08.18 at 10:20 pm

#29 Southern Albertan on 03.08.18 at 6:34 pm
Spoke to 2 different renovation contractors who have both had large contracts fall through in the past few weeks. Another patient of mine builds custom homes and has little on the horizon beyond the summer. Collateral damage will extend beyond the hammers and boots.
_ _ _
Send them to Vancouver, which has the highest construction costs in the country in large part due to a shortage of labour. If they can find a place to live they’ll find a job in no time.

The market in vancouver is robust with very few listings in the housing types working Canadians can afford: condos and townhouses. Horgan was smart in trying to monetize more of the real estate game for the benefit all British Columbians.

#143 Renter's Revenge! on 03.08.18 at 10:21 pm

#1 Penny Henny on 03.08.18 at 5:58 pm
#MeFirst

LOL. Happy International Women’s Day!

#144 M on 03.08.18 at 10:25 pm

&#21 Mark

…banks are lying.
They will all end up being bailed out. Or “in”…depending of what the southern gringo decides.

#145 Blacksheep on 03.08.18 at 10:37 pm

Don # 119,

“You can bet the politicians will maximize the perception of doing something while maximizing their chances of being re-elected. The spec tax will be tweaked or else political suicide.”
——————————–
100% agree.

Horgan will not “crash” the RE market.

It’s simply not in his best interest. Those who have been patiently waiting for a crash, will continue to be sadly disappointed.

#146 morrey on 03.08.18 at 10:38 pm

only one variable will slow the market significattly: off-shore money. If it continues to flow look for no more than a 8% correction. If it dries up 30% drop.

#147 Smoking Man on 03.08.18 at 10:42 pm

#132 acdel on 03.08.18 at 9:42 pm
#118 Smoking Man

At least they will meet; let’s hope sanity will prevail; the world has enough to worry about.
………
It will all work out. Who wants to be vaporized on either side.

Censorship is going to be the big thing this year. Especially around the midterms and the federal Canadian election. The globalist teet suckers running Google, Facebook and Twitter have huge plan in place.

Wont make a difference. Trump did not make the deplorables. Deplorables made Trump. Rejecting the insanity of the loonatic left. Trump picked up the sentiment and ran with it.

That’s what no one gets. Especially T2. He’s so dumb.
Has no clue it’s coming. That’s why he is still doing and saying what he’s saying.

He got his post national Canada. Deplorables are international, no boarders.

The irony…

#148 broader mind on 03.08.18 at 10:45 pm

Sold a fair chunk of preferred shares (CPD,ZPR) a couple of days ago to clear the margin off my account. Margin interest has gone from 3% to 3.75% in the last few month’s and the spread was no longer worth the risk. It took about two minutes and $18 in fees. Try to do that with a house . The banks are having secret meetings entitled “Porker Smearing” . They no longer need competitive rates to keep their existing mortgagees since most will not qualify at a new institution. Offer you can not refuse….

#149 Nick B on 03.08.18 at 10:47 pm

I smell recession, lower interest rates and higher unemployment. It won’t be fun but it’s needed. I believe equity markets in Canada will also decline and clear out the dead wood. US house prices have inflated back above pre-bubble levels in most US major cities, maybe US housing bubble #2 will also be on radar given the increase in rates in the US. Time to ensure you have your asset allocation correct and in line with your plan. Clear out any dogs.

#150 Jack on 03.08.18 at 10:53 pm

The uber rich have brought back slavery it seems – debt slavery. They have created the notion that if you don’t own a house you’re not successful and could never possibly be happy. They have lowered interest rates to make it seem foolish not to go into debt. They have made debt something to be proud of instead of being ashamed about. Now that they’ve got the vast majority of the population (globally i’ll add) on the hook they’re going to start reeling everyone in – by raising rates, bringing in new polices such as B20 to give them an excuse to raise rates even higher (for those who no longer qualify at renewal time), calling in HELOCS (oh, you can’t pay everything back right now? OK we’ll just increase your rate to 15%), bumping up interest rates and eliminating grace periods on credit cards and LOCs, the list goes on.

#151 Smoking Man on 03.08.18 at 10:57 pm

#116 NoName on 03.08.18 at 8:27 pm
How is that model 3 coming along…

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/elon-musk-sides-with-trump-on-trade-with-china-citing-25-percent-import-duty-on-american-cars.html
……

China has been over producing steel at a record clip and dumping the excess on world market.

You are not a nation if you give up your primary industries. You are a sitting duck. Musk is a smart guy. Naturally he gets it. Even hires people with zero degrees. He gets it.

Do they even teach what a primary industry is in school these days? Probably not. To busy demonizing and shaming straight white heterosexual males.

That’s why. Libralism will go extinct next election cycle. Print and put on this on the fridge.

I know the herd.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#152 Jack on 03.08.18 at 10:57 pm

I read Tccontrarians post after i submitted my post … definitely on the same page, except it’s more like the .000000001% that are pulling the strings.

#153 waiting on the westcoast on 03.08.18 at 11:01 pm

From their website…

BuzzBuzzNews is owned and operated by BuzzBuzzHome, North America’s largest search portal for new construction homes. The News team maintains arm’s length relationships with BuzzBuzzHome’s business development and product teams and is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased reporting on important issues affecting real estate buyers and sellers as well as professionals working within the industry.

#154 Rexx Rock on 03.08.18 at 11:01 pm

Have been traveling Asia for about 6 weeks and just seeing the devaluing of our dollar is incredible.Our central bank policy is destroying a way of life in Canada.Pure evil,there is really nothing more to say.
Garth is right,houses and even condo prices might actually fall in Canada,Victoria and Vancouver might even fall a little bit if you can believe it.I know for fact jobs are not easy to come by even in booming Victoria.A full time or part time goverment job that is posted will have over 1000 people apply for one job available.I guess 1/1000 is not to bad compared to some places.Lots of low paying jobs but why come here to live in poverty.Talked to a Somolian Canadian who lives in Tokyo now and makes more money then he did in Vanacouver.He said he had to leave because he couldn’t afford to live on his wage.He rents a small studio for $700 includes utilities.Another Taiwan student pays the same amount that I talked with also.Tokyo has cheaper rent then GTA,YVR and Victoria.

#155 NotLegalAdvice on 03.08.18 at 11:08 pm

Maybe it’s time we sleep and wake up when everything goes back to normal.

The only issue is, we’ve been living in a bubble for so long we forgot what normal feels like.

#156 Cottingham a bargain on 03.08.18 at 11:08 pm

#84 MF on 03.08.18 at 7:36 pm
#63 Cottingham a bargain on 03.08.18 at 7:14 pm

“My thoughts are that if a person living in the GTA cannot see the difference between property along Yonge st verses a host of outlying areas from east to west , then I would be simply wasting my time”

-Yonge street goes way for north. My thoughts are Yonge is gold but not anything north of Rutherford/Carville.

I’m at Yonge and Steeles and still feel too far north. When I buy it will most likely be along Eglinton. As someone else mentioned, small house in a good area.

MF
——-

I agree 100 %with your view of yonge street , gold platinum and then priceless ,except I think up to major Mack .( no matter splitting hairs for a kilometre)
No real opinion about Eglington , not sure

#157 Dog in The Fight on 03.08.18 at 11:11 pm

I have lived in or visited Vancouver since the 1960s. There have been ups and downs. I can’t say the city was more or less happier during good times or bad. A sunny day at 1st beach was just as awesome 50 years ago as it is now. The crash won’t be as bad as people think, and the sun will still warm the sand at Jericho beach the way it always has. My mother played on those beaches during the depression and WW II. Life goes on.

#158 berniebee on 03.08.18 at 11:18 pm

#25 MF and #27 Fuzzy Camel

You haven’t ever experienced a steadily decreasing price scenario, have you?

The “money floating around” and the “shortage of housing “ will evaporate. Like it always does when the sentiment shifts. Like when people see the headline quotes from real estate agents such as “Last week, the phone just stopped ringing.”

Think about this scenario: You’re a house buyer. You’ve got a sizable down payment. You’ve seen house prices go down for 6 months. Do you buy now? Or wait a bit longer? Many, if not most people are going to be very wary of pulling the trigger for an expensive and depreciating asset, unless “it’s a super deal”, ie: an even lower price.

Once the ball starts rolling downhill, your comments will be filed in the “It’s different here” bin.

#159 Smoking Man on 03.08.18 at 11:22 pm

Canada & Mexico excluded from tariffs for now.
NAFTA leverage. Brilliant move by the Donald.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/newsalert-canada-mexico-excused-from-u-s-tariffs-for-undetermined-period/amp?__twitter_impression=true

#160 Anglea on 03.08.18 at 11:24 pm

Those of us that remained debt free and stored up acorns are going to fare better if and when we lose our jobs amd have no available credit.

#161 Chico on 03.08.18 at 11:26 pm

#62 RudyGQ on 03.08.18 at 7:13 pm

I’ll say it over and over and over and over; the biggest factor that influences the housing market is Mr. Market! For example if you truly want lower housing costs reduce the buyer pool. Historically speaking this happens from a brain drain or economic emigration where masses of work talent (typically young workers) move to regions with better job prospects and life benefits. Will the lower mainland be the exception to this cycle that has been going on globally for centuries? Only time will tell.

———————————————————–

That’s interesting because “brain drain” was the term a friend of ours used when we left. He’s a doctor and he was visibly angry that people like my family and I felt the need to leave 2 years ago due to the cost of living in the “not so greater” Vancouver.

Our midwife/naturopath stated that she knew 10 different families that were leaving the region and heading to Nova Scotia, like us. It may not have been 10 exactly, but her point was made.

There is no doubt an impact being made with the loss of talent, but it’s hard to determine the precise impact.

On another but somewhat related note. Having moved from BC to Nova Scotia, I can state that large groups of people in both regions are stuck in the past. In BC, the good times will never end, houses always go up, we’re the best and the rest of the country can suck it. In Nova Scotia there are large numbers of people who think things will never get better, there is little opportunity, we’re just a have not province, etc.

Both of these perspectives that are held by large groups of Canadians are destructive because they fail to deal with life as it is.

#162 john m on 03.08.18 at 11:37 pm

I remember the early 1980’s when the crash hit ,i was living in Windsor Ont.Interest rates were hovering around 20%,vacant houses everywhere,CMHC had over 175,the auto plants were practically shut down..there was not a job to be had..in fact there were 39 lawyers in Windsor on unemployment insurance (i still have the newspaper clippings)….it’s not going to be pretty!

#163 Entrepreneur on 03.08.18 at 11:39 pm

#69 Trocxi…Do you really think that the NDP is communist? And don’t you think reporters/news would want to disclaim them if were? Maybe make a suggestion to Voice of BC.

As for saying that the middle class will end up in the shitter and should not be. As noted by #131 Nic…”Growth fueled by debt.” I think whoever is in debt over their heads is already in the shitter and should not be.

I really think that we should do away with political parties as we end up arguing about the parties as in here. And look at the States. And disagreements do not get debated to come to a satisfactory conclusion.

#164 ben on 03.08.18 at 11:59 pm

Bubbles never end cleanly. The future recession was chosen by the greedy fools who ramped land prices. People like Carney. Harper. To buy boomer votes. Reap the whirlwind. But man up: it was always going to end like this. Tarrifs or no tarrifs. Foreign taxes or not. Hold your hands up.

#165 Honky Donkey Blues on 03.09.18 at 12:20 am

“He threatens a global trade war in which Canada could end up roadkill”

We could flex some muscle and put a 100% export tariff on Kinder Eggs.

#166 Tech Shrek on 03.09.18 at 12:25 am

With the NDP (/Greens) new rules British Columbians middles class will bounce back to make our communities/province productive once again. As it should be.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Go read “Atlas Shrugged” It’s the NDP/Green playbook. I spoke to two friends in the tech sector yesterday. One in Alberta. One in BC. Their choice of startup locale for their new ventures? USA… definitely. The plans to leave are already being drawn up. Lawyers and accountants paid. No idle threats here.

These two aren’t stupid. They know what is stupid is staying in jurisdictions that will attempt to kill their ventures for the sake of political opportunism.

#167 Stan Brooks on 03.09.18 at 12:32 am

#21 Mark on 03.08.18 at 6:25 pm
Fortunately Canada’s banks have positioned themselves against a collapsing housing market. Such as RBC, which described its exposure like this:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rbc-chief-executive-not-worried-about-risk-posed-by-cooldown-in-housing/article36192083/

“[RBC] said only a tiny portion of RBC’s roughly $260-billion residential portfolio could be at risk for losses if home prices collapse.

[RBC] suggests removing RBC’s roughly $100-billion in insured mortgages from the discussion since they don’t pose a real credit risk to the bank, leaving about $160-billion in uninsured mortgages to assess.

[RBC] then eliminates those uninsured loans that are for less than 70 per cent of the value of the property. [RBC] estimates that’s about $140-billion of the bank’s mortgage book. “That’s quite significant,” he said

—————————————

1. Besides CMHC there are also private mortgage insurers like Genworth, total government backed insurance in force is around 800-900 billions.

Primarily subprime crap.

If house market crashes as expected that could be huge losses impossible to be covered by any budget.

Total mortgages are 1.4 trillions.

Of course the bully who plays it hard on the small businesses will be flat out rejected by banks on sharing that loss.

If the banks had any trust in the mortgages they underwrote and insured with CMHC they would take it back on their balances.

2. The bank/RBC calculations do not include HELOCs.

3. 70 % ratio will not be sufficient to qualify these mortgages as safe. They are mostly in big cities, GTA, Vancouver that could easily decline 70-80 (Vaughan, Mississauga, Markham), specifically in the suburbs.

4. It is clear that everything will be done to protect the banks from failing resulting in total demise of the loonie.

So no pensions except for the privileged few on government jobs.

5. At some point US will get fed up with us trying to manipulate the currency in order to profit from cheap, unqualified labour.

We produce very little of intellectual property or know how, high tech stuff.
Suck in productivity and keep falling behind.

Watch capital outflows, there is reason for it.
It spells: No jobs. No economy.

#168 Karma on 03.09.18 at 12:43 am

“Use the carrot, but always hold a big stick”.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/2-a-litre-gas-the-starting-point-if-notley-closes-taps-to-b-c-analyst

#169 acdel on 03.09.18 at 12:50 am

#92 Rural Rick

:)

For the record, although I enjoy (not always, sometimes he is just a drunk dick head) but he is honest with his opinions, many posts are accurate, as well he has said in the past not to take him seriously, he is a fictitious character with many identities. Guess which one!

His challenge for all of you to figure out or not, what planet it comes from. I think it is from the constellation of the Pleiades, some un-named planet, oh hell, we’ll name it “Smoking Man” planet, riding the treadmill with a JD in his hand and a smoke dangling off his lips! :)

It’s all good, what would we do without this character? This alien brings wisdom from far, far away! Beam me up Scotty!

#170 Beso on 03.09.18 at 12:51 am

Mark Baum: Okay, look. If home prices don’t go up, you are not going to be able to refinance. And you’ll be stuck paying whatever your monthly payment is once it jumps up after your teaser rate expires. Your monthlies could go up two-, three-hundred percent.

Florida Strip Club Dancer: James says I can always refinance.

Mark Baum: Well, he’s a liar. Actually, in this particular case, James probably is wrong.

Florida Strip Club Dancer: 200 percent? On all my loans?

Mark Baum: What do you mean “all” your loans? We’re talking about two loans on one house, right?

Florida Strip Club Dancer: I have five houses… and a condo.

(The Big Short Movie)

#171 Newcomer on 03.09.18 at 12:52 am

#125 Fatman on 03.08.18 at 8:55 pm
Home ownership rates by country:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

The negative correlation between per capita GDP and homeownership rates is interesting. I wasn’t aware of that before now.

#172 Stan Brooks on 03.09.18 at 12:57 am

#95 Raging Ranter on 03.08.18 at 7:54 pm

100 % Agree.
The time to act was 10 years ago.

The problem is that we are left with no economy at all besides a gargantuan housing bubble and all related stuff and services, including financials.

We have 2 choices, all of them dreadful:

1. Let it run for some more time as the whole house of cards will collapse with the crash of the housing market. Of course it will include attempts on gradual soft landing at the expense of the currency.

Expected outcome – big inflation, low rates, still somehow OK for few more years as inflation picks up speed. No pensions for anyone. Inflationary depression.

People will have houses but no jobs and no economy.

Strategy: salvage whatever capital you can while you can, including registered savings.

2. Hard crash that you are asking for.
Immediate implosion and severe depression.

Not gonna happen due to ‘systematic risk’. It will also damage our reputation and we don’t like that. It is not popular.
Remember the ‘most prudent’ bragging of 2009?

——————————

The problem I believe is that with both options there will be no ‘quick fix’, not even reasonable expectation of recovery in the next 2 decades.

Look at Japan, they had strong exporting economy/huge trade surpluses which we don’t have and still have not recovered from their bubble.

So unfortunately it will be everyone for himself in this case.

I am betting on option # 1, forgetting about pension, salvage whatever I can, the quicker I can and moving on.

This is just fundamentals, coming form the housing bubble itself.

The idiotic policies will just accelerate the unraveling.

——————————

And Newcomer, I am not a strong conservative, but I do not believe for a moment that the elitists in power have anything to do with the liberal ideas.

They are just hijacking it for their own agendas.

#173 Stan Brooks on 03.09.18 at 1:03 am

The very fact that RBC is publishing such statement, on the status of their mortgage portfolio is alarming.

Who are they truing to convince and why? Something is going on.

#174 Guillaume on 03.09.18 at 1:10 am

Provincial-Socialists are screwing the place in BC but the corrupt Liberals didn’t help either : be ready for a huge hike in utility’s prices, not to mention ICBC, it will hurt badly ! tar and feather is to nice for those crooks, the guillotine on Canada’s place would eventually be a solution.
https://www.desmog.ca/2018/03/02/what-you-need-know-about-bc-hydro-s-financial-mess-and-site-c-dam

#175 Larry M on 03.09.18 at 1:11 am

I’m in a tech school getting retrained -I’m 44 and the other 21 students are 20-27 years old.

One of them has had a job that wasn’t a server or cashier. All the rest don’t have a clue about anything. They don’t know what different basic tools are, don’t understand where their food comes from: “do they grade the beef when the cow is on the farm?” – NO LIE – someone asked that once.

They complain about 8:15am class start times. I’m the only one right now with perfect attendance after 6 months by a longshot.

Only a couple actually own a car which sorta makes me wonder about the future of the auto industry actually. Nearly all of them use ride-sharing.

They all buy starbucks on-site and maybe 4 of them pack actual lunches but in asking one what she had her reply was “I’m not sure, my mom made it”.

None want to work anything other than 9am-4:30pm in the future with weekends off – okay, maybe that’s possible with this field. They think they can take months off to travel just by asking their future employer.

These millennials are the laziest, most un-aware, “give me a hand-out”, “I’m so tired”, self-centered, entitled group of individuals I’ve seen.

I have some hope for 3 of them but the world is in for a world of hurt when these clueless morons hit the workforce.

This is an actual sampling of 21 millennials that I’m basing my opinions on here.

Drives me crazy at times but I just want to learn, get my credentials and get away from them ASAP.

#176 IHCTD9 on 03.09.18 at 1:12 am

Was talking with a young gen Z’er yesterday at work. He and his brand new wife were going back and forth on buying a house. He was adamant that he did not want to be house poor. He wanted cash flow to “enjoy life” and save money. I took the opposite side of the argument just to flush out as much of his opinion on RE as possible.

He knew exactly what he could afford, and exactly what that would get him in our area. He had a very realistic view of the total costs involved in ownership. Very well informed, and right on point as to what his life would look like supporting a chunky mortgage.

The more I read about and talk to Gen Z’ers, the more stark differences compared to Millennials I see. Gen Z seems to understand what debt is, and does not throw caution to the wind when financial decisions are made.

This kid will be just fine.

#177 acdel on 03.09.18 at 1:16 am

Off topic, but this is how crazy it has become in B.C., people in that Province “Wake Up” and fight back, stop being such sheep!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/threat-of-demolition-and-10k-fine-facing-volunteers-who-rebuilt-alpine-cabin-1.4567879

#178 Tony on 03.09.18 at 1:21 am

Re: #2 Cottingham a bargain on 03.08.18 at 6:05 pm

The birthrate is falling sharply worldwide. Worldwide real estate likely will be the worst possible investment over the next twenty years. With Canada the most overvalued and especially the GTA that would be the worst of all investment choices.

#179 Two-thirds on 03.09.18 at 1:46 am

One of the mottoes of this pathetic blog has been “this will not end well” for ages.

As a country, we will reap what we sowed, and deserve. We have the governments we (collectively) deserve already, doing what their electorate wants (emphasis on their), so it is time to face the music.

I hope the lessons will be learned and that we will emerge stronger, in time, once the dislocation of capital is resolved and Canadians start saving again, living within their means, and internalizing that a house is for living in, not specu-vesting.

The chief risk in addition to the correction itself is newer government intervention to stave off the reversion to the mean, by their favourite methods: taxation of the “rich” and subsidization of the rest. Will it be a “clear and present danger” for responsible ants’ nests to be raided to pay for the grasshoppers’ mortgage bailout?

How can anyone escape that? If the whole world has gone mad, is staying sane a rational strategy?

#180 Myra Andres on 03.09.18 at 1:46 am

Greater Vancouver Housing Stat posted originally by realtor PaulB

March 8
New 196
Price Change 36
Sold 118
TI:8496

March 7
New 204
Price Change 73
Sold 99
TI:8442

March 6
New 246
Price Change 48
Sold 130
Inventory 8372

March 5
New 316
Price Change. 60
Sold 104
Inventory 8344

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

#181 Tony on 03.09.18 at 1:52 am

Re: #84 MF on 03.08.18 at 7:36 pm

You’ll lose your shirt.

#182 Tony on 03.09.18 at 1:57 am

Taking a shot at the U.S. jobs report.
147,000 jobs for the month, average weekly hours worked at 34.0 wages gains year over year at 2.6 percent. Unemployment rate steady at 4.1 percent.

Canadian jobs report a loss of 5,800 jobs.

#183 dee on 03.09.18 at 2:15 am

I’m hoping for a day when people get together again. Go out, have dinner & drinks. Unfortunately, to get there we need a massive correction.

#184 Free bird on 03.09.18 at 2:32 am

Garth, good post. Would hope most see economies are like any ecosystem, effect part and effect the whole.

Preaching to the choir or talking to the deaf (again). Maybe learn sign language?

#185 frytkilq on 03.09.18 at 3:08 am

#53 Randy on 03.08.18 at 6:54 pm

People are just so incredibly dumb. Land and property ownership is a myth. How can you ‘really’ own something that will have a ‘permanent lien’ on it ? The Government owns your property. You never own it even after you pay off the mortgage. Fail to pay you property taxes (permanent lien) and they can take your property and sell it. Home and Property ownership is a lie and a very bad joke.”

Totally true…..people like to brag they OWN stuff, when in fact Big Brother OWNS it all

#186 When Will They Raise Rates? on 03.09.18 at 3:25 am

#134 tccontrarian on 03.08.18 at 9:48 pm

In summation then, the ‘artificial’ measures to stimulate economies BY GOVERNMENTS (not just here, but almost world-wide), mainly by extending credit at historically low levels, have fueled the MOTHER of all asset bubbles (RE, Stock Markets).
Upon seeing how the sheeple has gobbled up HUGE debt (mortgage, auto, student, consumer), they’re now OVER-REACTING with ‘corrective’ measures (ie. B20, taxes on this or that), hoping that things will ‘normalize’…and to show that they’re ‘doing something’.

Or…….alternatively, it was a diabolically well-planned scheme (by banksters/governments…the 0.1% who like to stay private and away from limelight), to basically enslave the masses but without chains (ie. debt-slavery).

Who’s with me on the latter version?

TCC
——————–

In either case, burn it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=entkO2ot-3w

#187 TRUMP on 03.09.18 at 5:59 am

The more things CHANGE, the more they stay the SAME.

Life is short, don’t sweat the small stuff

Or the big stuff.

#188 victorious on 03.09.18 at 6:12 am

Others chirp in with statements like, “bring on the collapse,” thinking once markets tumble by 40% or a half they’ll be able to afford real estate.

Let it burn. Is this a solution?

Its not a solution but its what is needed to set the foundation for sustainable economic growth. Real estate drops of 40+ percent is what is needed to move house valuations in line with reality in many areas of this country.

Real estate has been driven to absurd valuations which is something that you, Garth, chirp on about nonstop for years on this blog. Now that its finally on the verge of collapsing you are now against this collapse? If governments had stepped in with these measures years ago then the current bubble would have never gotten this out of hand. If our central banker geniuses actually put interest rates where they belonged it would have kept this bubble in check. Bubbles never end in a nice slow fashion as you seem to think..whether they are popped by exhaustion or government policies they always drop rapidly and deeply. Yes it will be painful and yes the government is perhaps making it pop more quickly but enough is enough.

Against this backdrop of growing uncertainty, the let-it-burn crowd craves a collapse they think will hurt the wealthy and benefit the rest. Forget it. Things don’t work that way.

Its not about hurting any particular group. Its about getting house valuations down to realistic values..there is no easy way to do this when they are so absurd. I believe that irresponsible behaviour should be punished and responsible behaviour rewarded. Hence lower real estate prices will benefit the savers and the ones that are not in debt up to their eyeballs and punish the people in debt and who did not save which is how it should work. Not all savers are rich and not all in debt are poor either. A lot of smart people did very well buying real estate in the USA in 2009-2011 and they were not all rich people but they had the cash available.

I have no debts..a stable job and pension..and do not live in a crazy priced real estate area..but am really sick and tired of seeing people living way way beyond their means because of cheap money and savers being punished with next to no interest on their savings..its time for the tables to turn. The real lesson is that bubbles should never be allowed to form and the central banks government and many citizens are to blame for creating it and now its time to pay the piper.

#189 OBSERVER on 03.09.18 at 6:16 am

47 % of ALL OUTSTANDING Canadian residential mortgages renew are up for RENEWAL in calendar 2018 according to Garth.

Therefore Poloz will delay (while making spurious excuses) on raising rates as long as he can in order to get as many mtge holders as possible their mtges renewed at as low rates as possible.

If he drags it out to July 1st, for example, he has notionally got 1/2 the mtges (6 months) renewed before raising rates. If he raises only once more this year, the other notional 1/2 will face only an additional 0.25 % increase.

This is the hidden agenda of the Bank of Canada. – get the big debts refinanced at manageable terms so they can continue to pay the banks and avoid a total real estate implosion.

In the interim, the Canadian dollar versus US Dollar will fall as the US hikes rates 3 or 4 times.

This may inflame the USA and impair NAFTA negotiations as Canada is accused of manipulating its’ currency if Poloz doesn’t raise.

At that point, Poloz will raise once (and promise more hikes) to placate the USA.

All the while inflation in Canada will rise and easily surpass the nonsensical 2 % goal the BoC has set, and he will use that as the excuse for the second rate hike.

The mtges will be refinanced – mission accomplished.

#190 OBSERVER on 03.09.18 at 6:32 am

response to comment # 134 TCC

Absolutely agree about the self inflicted “debt slavery” concept and I have been thinking this way since 2009.

They could have easily dropped interest rates to juice business investment and simultaneously implementing a stress test for mortgage / consumer lending to avoid over consumption.

Their failure to do so speaks volumes. No one is so stupid as to make money very cheap and then scold / warn (Mark Carney / Poloz) for using it for consumption without moving to restrict that credit sometime during those 5 or 6 years of warning the public.

Also, don’t forget, by lowering the cost of money to those with financial strength and first access to it (Think Nestle borrowing at the same rates as the US gov’t {about 2 % for 20 years} to buy competitors with 6 to 8 % real profits) and your interpretation of events broadens to the true crime here.

#191 Ace Goodheart on 03.09.18 at 6:46 am

RE: #159 Smoking Man on 03.08.18 at 11:22 pm
Canada & Mexico excluded from tariffs for now.
NAFTA leverage. Brilliant move by the Donald.”

He’s negotiating it like a business deal. He’s controlling the playing field. Making it all about the USA and what they’re willing to do.

Meanwhile, up here, we have T-2 playing dress-up, trying to change the English language and being offended.

We are so screwed……

#192 Stone on 03.09.18 at 6:50 am

#152 Jack on 03.08.18 at 10:57 pm
I read Tccontrarians post after i submitted my post … definitely on the same page, except it’s more like the .000000001% that are pulling the strings.

———

It’s probably less than that. Probably 1 to 3 individuals and most of the decision making is done by an algo.

#193 frytkilq on 03.09.18 at 7:15 am

#109 Dolce Vita on 03.08.18 at 8:13 pm

#90 Vulture-eye View

Add Italy to your list and better yet, you do not have to do any handy work, it’s all good to go with marble and wood, as long as you are OK with Reverse FOMO appreciations (with a warmer climate than Ireland; although, the Irish make up for that easily with their ways). ”

Amazing how a dozen pints of Guinness every day can raise your spirits…

#194 Rooster on 03.09.18 at 7:40 am

#150 Jack on 03.08.18 at 10:53 pm

The uber rich have brought back slavery it seems – debt slavery.

***********
The Chinese Gov. forced Mercedes-Benz to apologize for quoting the Dalai Lama. Chinese carmaker, Geely owns 9.7% of Mercedes-Benz, bought thru derivatives to avoid disclosure rules. Aecon is up for sale and nobody cares. Maybe the 407 will get cheaper? The communists you need to worry about are already here, and they are buying out the capitalists. Is that crazy or what folks?

“Our prime purpose in this life is to help others. And if you can’t help them, at least don’t hurt them.”
Dally Llama

https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21737517-it-bet-china-would-head-towards-democracy-and-market-economy-gamble-has-failed-how

#195 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.18 at 8:19 am

@#96 pathcontrolmonk
Survey questions:
“1) Let free market capitalism run its course.
2) I don’t care because I live in Tuktayuktuk.
3) Schadenfreude.”

++++++

1) Ayn Rand is my hero( heroine?)
2) I dont care because I live in Eecum Seecum
3) Kristelnacht

#196 Elcheapo on 03.09.18 at 8:24 am

#175 Larry- very accurate observations. The really sad part is they’ve all been raised by boomers. The boomers gave us the millenials. Look in the mirror, boomers: SCM is your doing!

Sigh.

#197 LivinLarge on 03.09.18 at 8:25 am

I’m curious, judging by the commentors here, the vast majority are not home horny first time buying mils.

So, while it’s interesting to read the daily proof that RE is in another of its regular periodic cyclical collapses but doesn’t this just preach to the converted?

There are a few contrarians here who appear to think this is a minor RE blip but for the most part aren’t we all in agreement that 2018 is the new 1990?

I’m certainly not advocating eliminating the “here’s the proof the sky really is falling” but there’s a hell of a lot more in the personal finance lexicon than just how poor an investment strategy it is to make your residence your primary wealth creation plan. Even my lawyer who isn’t particularly a chatty guy made this abundantly clear to me in 1997. It’s not like he needed to, I’d been reading Fearless Leader’s missives in print for ages before that.

#198 maxx on 03.09.18 at 8:27 am

One extreme or another.

Pure leftie or pure capitalist. Friend or foe.
So kindergarten.

The way even intelligent people label one another.

The rich will always be rich (fairly accurate, and not a bad thing).

The primary job of government is the protection of people and property. Just as we have a military (shame, that), we need a government that has teeth and can protect people from the likes of obscene wealth hoarding. Banks can very nearly write their own tickets now and powerful businesses dangling job prospects push agendas that often end up costing taxpayer money.

Globally, we have migrated to a state whereby most societies are now composed of debt-laden, poor and very unhappy people, with a thin crust of the wealthy, who, granted were adept at amassing riches and many of whom bestowed generosity along the way. Not too much of a problem there. Trouble arises when conditions don’t change and/or ramp up and worsen and generations of people (that’s with an “s”) get locked into not being able to get a toehold on some of the abundant wealth that swirls around us constantly and through msm is ground into their faces every single day.

What I despise are situations whereby some amass dozens and hundreds of billions at the expense of most of society. Our host will no doubt support that with a justification that Ayn Rand or any of her cronies would adore. Sorry, I don’t quite see it. I don’t have a magic number as to what the ideal amount of cash anyone should be allowed to control, but surely a billion or so per 100-year lifespan should be about enough……..?
Ya think?

I get that rich people don’t want to part with their wealth. Totally natural and normal. I certainly wouldn’t want to. Wealth and fairness (not the Liberal sort) don’t have to be at odds.

Government screwed up on so many fronts and now we are living the “dream” with seemingly no brakes in a society that is marinating in debt to the hairline, is miserable and cannot get traction with re. Getting on the property ladder and family formation are two of the pillars of a stable and wealthy society and these have been allowed to degrade to the point whereby we have the equivalent of a handful of fortunate people and most of the rest are left with crumbs, mixed in with the angst of chronic insufficiency and future fear, both for themselves and their children. Some have completely given up.

I don’t want the wealthy to give away what they’ve worked for – I certainly wouldn’t want to, however we should and more importantly can help more. Threats of “pulling out” and massive job loss are simply scare tactics, as though ANY government intervention is totally destructive and will lead to complete and irreversible economic meltdown. Please. Taxation levers can be modified to suit. The measures talked about can be adjusted to accommodate results. Just like our BOC and its interest rate “levers”.

People who own multiple properties, especially those considered luxury, ought to be prepared to pony up more to enrich society at large. Affordable housing needs to return. Yesterday.

I’m game. I don’t intend to migrate out of my circumstances, but I do want to live in a happier society. I’m sick and tired of seeing so many people struggle to end up with zip.

If our government screwed it up, it can unscrew it.

Signed, a capitalist with a human bent.

#199 Steven Rowlandson on 03.09.18 at 8:31 am

Let it burn. Is this a solution?

Yes! Equal to or less than 5 cents on the dollar before considering a home purchase. The real estate market needs to be shown the black flag and given no quarter.
It is not home ownership we seek to expunge but it is the extreme genocidal expense of obtaining it that has to be wiped away. The economic and demographic recovery of the nation requires it.

#200 MF on 03.09.18 at 8:32 am

#158 berniebee on 03.08.18

Yes it is different this time.

Using the same analogy, your comment could be filed in the 2011/2012 everything is overvalued/rates will rise bin. Look what happened.

And I do remember the last few downturns. My parents purchased right at the bottom in 1982 and then in 1993…with no mortgage. Each time they low balled, the seller said no way, and then came back a few weeks later because there were no buyers in sight.

This was prior to globalization. That’s the big difference.

Even Garth admits some high demand parts of the GTA won’t see any meaningful price declines.

MF

#201 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.18 at 8:33 am

@#180 Myron Andrewski

We get to look forward to the ever growing daily list of realturd “stats” that are vague, incomplete and unexplained……

Awesome.

P.S. How about a weekly summation…..once a month.

#202 Smoking Man on 03.09.18 at 8:42 am

Now that’s capitalism.

BREAKING: US hiring surge adds 313,000 jobs in February, most in 1 ½ years, as jobless rate stays 4.1 percent.

While Canada heads for a Veneswala wet dream.

Canada adds 15,400 jobs. Unemployment rate falls. – Garth

#203 Filkins on 03.09.18 at 8:47 am

Absolutely, Instead of calling it a “Crash” most, more accurately refer to this type of thing as a “Wealth transfer” people that consistently made mortgage payments, worked a steady job, drank the cool aid are going to lose everything. Then what they paid for will be re-possessed and sold to wealthy people for pennies. Just like every time it’s happened in the past. The rich enslave the poor with debt, then drive them into bankruptcy and buy it all back for nothing, then do it all over again

#204 dharma bum on 03.09.18 at 8:48 am

“The conversations on this pathetic blog recently show most people don’t get this.” – Garth
——————————————————————–

Get what?

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e6/82/36/e68236eeb0c7bc5db83dd5838dd0da9a.png

#205 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 8:51 am

#159 Smoking Man on 03.08.18 at 11:22 pm
“Canada & Mexico excluded from tariffs for now. NAFTA leverage. Brilliant move by the Donald.”

So let me try to understand your—for lack of a better word—logic. Trump threatens to put tariffs on Canadian and Mexican exports to the U.S., citing national security as the reason. You then say it’s a brilliant move on Trump’s part. Next, Trump exempts Canada and Mexico from any tariffs, and you say it’s a brilliant move.

It seems to me that in your opinion Trump can do no wrong, and that you have a “yuuge” man crush on the Donald. I’d even bet that Trump could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue, and he’d still get your vote. Am I right?

Oh, and for your information negotiating through intimidation and bullying is the least effective method, according to leaders and experts in negotiation. For example, read Getting to Yes by Roger Fisher and William Ury (Penguin Books, 1991).

Oh, that’s right, I forgot. You don’t (or can’t) read books! (Just like the Donald.)

#206 The real Kip on 03.09.18 at 8:53 am

It’s pretty simplistic to simply blame US homeowners for the GFC when Wall St. aided and abbetted by the credit rating agencies were certainly in on it. The failures were across the board but heavy emphasis on greed. There have been many studies as to why the GFC happened but the summary of the Financial Crisis Inquiry (2011) says it pretty nicely.

“The U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission reported its findings in January 2011. It concluded that “the crisis was avoidable and was caused by: Widespread failures in financial regulation, including the Federal Reserve’s failure to stem the tide of toxic mortgages; Dramatic breakdowns in corporate governance including too many financial firms acting recklessly and taking on too much risk; An explosive mix of excessive borrowing and risk by households and Wall Street that put the financial system on a collision course with crisis; Key policy makers ill prepared for the crisis, lacking a full understanding of the financial system they oversaw; and systemic breaches in accountability and ethics at all levels.”

The systemic risk started with over-reaching borrowers and real estate lust. No hiding that fact. Just another triumph of human nature. – Garth

#207 PC Party Hopeful on 03.09.18 at 8:54 am

The PC Party is hoping to announce, at noon today, the next leader of the opposition. However, only one-third of the 1.4% of Ontarians almost eligible to vote have had their identities verified. A court case is ensuing. TGIF

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-pc-leadership-ford-elliott-mulroney-granic-allen-1.4568607

#208 fancy_pants on 03.09.18 at 8:57 am

unless of course you live in Cambridge …

https://www.therecord.com/news-story/8317518-condo-sales-surge-in-cambridge/

#209 MF on 03.09.18 at 8:58 am

#181 Tony

How did your Teck Resources short from 2016 go?

MF

#210 Victor V on 03.09.18 at 9:03 am

Canada adds 15,400 jobs in February, unemployment rate dips

https://www.bnn.ca/canada-adds-15-400-jobs-in-february-unemployment-rate-dips-1.1022308

The Canadian economy added 15,400 jobs in February after a massive loss in January, thanks to a gain in part-time positions, and the unemployment rate dipped to 5.8 per cent, Statistics Canada said on Friday.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast employment would increase by 20,000. Canada shed 88,000 positions in January, the most in nine years.

February’s gains were all in the part-time sector, which added 54,700 positions, while the full-time sector shed 39,300 jobs. Average hourly wages rose by 3.1 per cent from last February.

On a year-over-year basis, employment rose by 282,500, or 1.5 per cent, while the six-month average for employment growth was 19,000, down from 20,100 in January.

#211 Smoking Man on 03.09.18 at 9:05 am

Canada adds 15,400 jobs. Unemployment rate falls. – Garth.

Naturaly, only because our biggest trading partners economy is on fire because of lower taxes and deregulation. Trumponomics 101.
T2 better get his shit together fast on NAFTA

In other braking news Tucker Carlson interviews SCM

https://youtu.be/t89vZ1A1W3g

#212 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 9:07 am

Donald Trump is utterly unpredictable, but clearly protectionist. He threatens a global trade war in which Canada could end up roadkill. Such a conflict would curb growth, drop commodity values and hit oil – our major export. It would increase US consumer prices, fuel inflation and lead to higher American interest rates – and Canadian mortgages. For days now financial markets have been whip-sawing between despair and relief as the Trumpian Tweets fly. — Garth

Garth, you’ve made it abundantly clear over the years that you’re not a protectionist. How do you manage to attract so many whackjobs like Smoking Man and Fake News Again?

#213 Maple Leaf Gardens on 03.09.18 at 9:07 am

We are still waiting for the knock-down drag-out Ontario preliminaries to finish before the Championship bout.

On the title card is Andrew Scheer vs Adonis. We asked his trainer, Mickey, what’s the plan Stan?

“Well, we’re gonna put him in a sports coat, throw on some hair gel and hit em’ hard.
Little by little we lose our friends, we lose everything. We keep losin’ and losin’ till we say you know, ‘Oh what the hell am I livin’ around here for? I got not reason to go on.’ But with you kid, boy, I got a reason to go on. And I’m gonna stay alive and I will watch you make good… You’re gonna eat lightning, and you’re gonna crap thunder!”

Mickey Goldmill (Rocky I)

#214 Howard on 03.09.18 at 9:17 am

Excellent jobs numbers out today in the US. Pretty much guarantees another rate hike very soon. US is now pulling well away from Canada and the split will soon become a chasm.

I read yesterday that one noted forex expert predicts that the CAD will devalue to C$1.60 per USD, about what it was in the late-90s when oil was sub-$20 and other commodities were in the trash as well. We won’t need sub-20 oil to bring it that far down this time. Poloz is on the case and he wants a low dollar and savers jumping from their rooftops.

#215 Potato on 03.09.18 at 9:25 am

Long time reader, first time commenter. Moved from Dublin to Toronto in Oct’14. Lived through the RE bubble burst and watched as colleagues, friends and family rushed out to “buy a home now, or never own one”. Most of them ended up in massively negative equity, and serious financial difficulty. It was like stepping back in time when I arrived in Toronto. Seeing all of the same red flags, and the house horny masses charging at them like bulls.

I was fortunate enough not to be negatively impacted by the ensuing recession, but I had friends who had left school early to get into the trades (Electricians, Plumbers, etc.). They were making a killing on contract work as the bubble continued to grow. Not only did they find themselves out of work, the entire job market they were eligible for had disappeared. A whole demographic was soon to be dubbed “generation emigration” as the country’s skilled labour fled to Canada and Oz, where there were new RE bubbles in early formation.

I wonder are we doomed to continuously repeat the cycle of bubbles, or will we ever make a shift in to a more stable economic model.

#216 TurnerNation on 03.09.18 at 9:27 am

#175 Larry very interesting. It’s a lack of intellectual curiosity. Brought about via non stop programming of the mind…starting at screens and always plugged into ear buds.

The selfie cam on my phone is looking at me and measuring my eye movement, typing style, phone movements, mic, and expressions as I write this.

Does it all matter as our world today including news stories and the actors we see all is run via A.I. alphabet agencies.

But what did their parents teach them?

M42ON

#217 Mark on 03.09.18 at 9:28 am

From the day we arrive on the planet
And blinking, step into the sun
There’s more to be seen than can ever be seen
More to do than can ever be done
Some say eat or be eaten
Some say live and let live
But all are agreed as they join the stampede
You should never take more than you give
In the circle of life, it’s the wheel of fortune
It’s the leap of faith, it’s the band of hope
Till we find our place on the path unwinding
In the circle, the circle of life
Some of us fall by the wayside
And some of us soar to the stars
And some of us sail through our troubles
And some have to live with the scars
There’s far too much to take in here
More to find than can ever be found
But the sun rolling high through the sapphire sky
Keeps great and small on the endless round

#218 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.09.18 at 9:30 am

#196 Max writes: Getting on the property ladder and family formation are two of the pillars of a stable and wealthy society and these have been allowed to degrade…

The very first step in fixing things is to stop calling it the “property ladder”. Buying a house means purchasing a place to live. It does not mean getting on the bottom wrung of some metaphorical ladder that the buyer then feels obligated to climb. Thinking of houses that way is precisely where the problem starts.

#219 not the Dally Llama on 03.09.18 at 9:31 am

#204 The real Kip on 03.09.18 at 8:53 am
It’s pretty simplistic to simply blame US homeowners for the GFC when Wall St. aided and abbetted by the credit rating agencies were certainly in on it. ….
“The U.S. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission reported its findings in January 2011. It concluded that “the crisis was avoidable and was caused by: Widespread failures in financial regulation, including the Federal Reserve’s failure to stem the tide of toxic mortgages; Dramatic breakdowns in corporate governance including too many financial firms acting recklessly and taking on too much risk; An explosive mix of excessive borrowing and risk by households and Wall Street that put the financial system on a collision course with crisis; Key policy makers ill prepared for the crisis, lacking a full understanding of the financial system they oversaw; and systemic breaches in accountability and ethics at all levels.”
The systemic risk started with over-reaching borrowers and real estate lust. No hiding that fact. Just another triumph of human nature. – Garth
*********

Another view is that since people will always desire things that they cannot have, we are willing to put up with government, when it’s good.

#220 Dolce Vita - Read Labour Force Survey on 03.09.18 at 9:33 am

People, you need to read the Labour Force Survey itself and NOT the MSM headlines.

Feb. Jobs Report out and the CBC Business & BNN Headlines below 1510 hrs CET (Read numbers by Province & GDP Sectors after headlines and conclude for yourselves):

CBC Business: “Canada’s unemployment rate nudges down to 5.8% in February.”
BNN: “Canada adds 15,400 jobs in February, unemployment rate dips.”

By Province:

AB
Overall = +2,300
Full Time = -10,500
Part Time = +12,800

BC
Overall = -3,400
Full Time = -28,500
Part Time = +25,200

ON
Overall = +15,700
Full Time = -2,500
Part Time = +18,100

PQ
Overall = -2,900 (StatCan rounding?)
Full Time = -3,200
Part Time = +200

****SPOT the TREND in the above****

Major GDP Sectors, jobs added (Trade, FIRE and Construction GDP Sector job creation, not so good):

Natural Resources +7,600 (yeah! AB)
Construction 0
Manufacturing -16,500
Trade -22,000
Transportation, Warehousing +12,600
Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing -11,600
Professional, scientific and technical services -11,900
Educational services +12,200
Health care and social assistance +24,500 (yup, Boomers ageing and in need of help)
Other services +16,600 (yeah! Janitorial Services)

Most jobs created were Public and not Private Sector:

Public +50,300
Private +8,400

Big G trying to offset few Private sector jobs being created.
_________________________

So, now what do you think of the MSM headlines Commenters here posted gleefully about?

#221 Te. Maxx @ 196 on 03.09.18 at 9:34 am

Thanks Maxx.
That was beautiful.

signed …..human animal.

#222 Smoking Man on 03.09.18 at 9:40 am

#210 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 9:07 am
Donald Trump is utterly unpredictable, but clearly protectionist. He threatens a global trade war in which Canada could end up roadkill. Such a conflict would curb growth, drop commodity values and hit oil – our major export. It would increase US consumer prices, fuel inflation and lead to higher American interest rates – and Canadian mortgages. For days now financial markets have been whip-sawing between despair and relief as the Trumpian Tweets fly. — Garth

Garth, you’ve made it abundantly clear over the years that you’re not a protectionist. How do you manage to attract so many whackjobs like Smoking Man and Fake News Again?
………
Whackjob? Fake News?. Care to elaborate.
Didn’t think so.

Like all lefties when you can’t win a debate you resort to name calling.

#223 IHCTD9 on 03.09.18 at 9:42 am

#197 Steven Rowlandson on 03.09.18 at 8:31 am
Let it burn. Is this a solution?

Yes! Equal to or less than 5 cents on the dollar before considering a home purchase. The real estate market needs to be shown the black flag and given no quarter.
It is not home ownership we seek to expunge but it is the extreme genocidal expense of obtaining it that has to be wiped away. The economic and demographic recovery of the nation requires it.
_________________________________

If the government succeeded in driving the price of GVRD RE down to say – 350-450K for a SFD, would that not mean that the aura surrounding YVR RE ownership is so detestable that no one is willing to pony up more than that?

If that is the case, are you so sure you would even want to buy into a market that ends up like that? One that has been pounded so bad, the residents bailed out, losing 100’s of thousands, and ran for the hills?

I really think you are wasting your time waiting for affordable housing in YVR. You want to own a place of your own? Time to move. Get used to that idea, or get used to spending big dollars renting for the rest of your life.

#224 Pepito on 03.09.18 at 9:42 am

The systemic risk started with over-reaching borrowers and real estate lust. No hiding that fact. Just another triumph of human nature. – Garth
___________________________________

When the sheep herd strays off the pasture seeking clover and then gets decimated by wolves looking for easy prey, you don’t blame the sheep. You blame the shepherd and shoot the wolves.

By your reckoning, it’s all the sheeps’ fault. Do you blame children for getting hit by speeding cars in areas where speed-bumps should have been installed, too?

#225 Stan Brooks on 03.09.18 at 9:46 am

#208 Victor V on 03.09.18 at 9:03 am
Canada adds 15,400 jobs in February, unemployment rate dips

https://www.bnn.ca/canada-adds-15-400-jobs-in-february-unemployment-rate-dips-1.1022308

The Canadian economy added 15,400 jobs in February after a massive loss in January, thanks to a gain in part-time positions, and the unemployment rate dipped to 5.8 per cent, Statistics Canada said on Friday.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast employment would increase by 20,000. Canada shed 88,000 positions in January, the most in nine years.

February’s gains were all in the part-time sector, which added 54,700 positions, while the full-time sector shed 39,300 jobs. Average hourly wages rose by 3.1 per cent from last February.

On a year-over-year basis, employment rose by 282,500, or 1.5 per cent, while the six-month average for employment growth was 19,000, down from 20,100 in January.

———————————-

spin doctors.

The country lost 39,300 full-time jobs and generated 54,700 part-time positions last month, the report said.

and how many of these ‘newly created’ part time jobs are actually second jobs for someone?

Of course they won’t tell you: YTD the country lost 73 000 jobs (for January and February).

But hey, keep lying, let’s see for how long can we keep extracting water from a stone.

#226 Stan Brooks on 03.09.18 at 9:55 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/women-fail-save-enough-retirement-143600435.html

Women don’t save enough for retirement, should we assume that men actually do?

Here is idea for the gender equal government:
Let’s confiscate men’s retirement savings and distribute to women, as pay back for centuries of abuse.

#227 fancy_pants on 03.09.18 at 10:02 am

#50 Ace Goodheart on 03.08.18 at 6:50 pm
Government action to control the behaviour of citizens usually goes horribly wrong.


So true and evident.

What once was a constitutionally limited government republic to control the majority, to protect an individual’s rights, and liberties of people in general, has become a democracy where an individual, and any group of individuals composing any minority, have no protection against the unlimited power of the majority.

The majority can impose its will on the minority. It already has, ex. Canada won’t fund student summer jobs unless employers support abortion. wtf? So the sovereign individual is no longer free to reject the majority group-think?

Hold onto your property loosly, especially if you do not stand with the majority. A majority faction may place limits on whatever it pleases – just b/c it hasn’t does not conclude that it can’t or won’t. When SHTF, you will be amazed how quickly the facade of protection of unalienable rights to individuals comes crashing down.

#228 D.D. Corkum on 03.09.18 at 10:02 am

#12 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.08.18 at 6:14 pm

“Lets see how Millenials handle their first serious recession……
With grace and aplomb no doubt.”

—-

This wouldn’t be the first recession for all Millenials. The cohort began entering the workforce a decade ago, during the 2008-2009 one.

#229 Stan Brooks on 03.09.18 at 10:20 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/big-telcos-set-hit-many-090000616.html

More price ‘deflation’.
No oligopoly there, clearly.
Pure competition. Free market. Serving our customers better.


For many customers, the cost of home internet is about to get even more pricey as the big telecom companies hike rates once again.

“Internet is expensive enough,” said Rogers customer Eric Polsinelli of Oshawa, Ont. “There’s nothing I see on my end that justifies that extra $8.”

On March 12, Rogers will raise prices for all its current internet plans by $8 a month, with the exception of its cheapest package, which will rise by $4 a month.

On April 1, Bell will increase internet prices by $5 a month for customers in Ontario and by $3 a month for Quebecers. In both provinces, charges for exceeding one’s internet data limit will also go up by $1 to $4 per extra gigabyte.

#230 Tony on 03.09.18 at 10:49 am

Re: #207 MF on 03.09.18 at 8:58 am

I doubled up on the short when Teck hit 34 dollars. I took some profits at 26 but I’m still short Teck Corporation.

#231 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.09.18 at 10:57 am

@#226 D.D. Corkum, not in Canada they didn’t. 2008-09 was a mere blip in Canada compared to 1981-83 or the 1990-92 downturns. The misery of those recessions was not matched in any way by the relatively short downturn of 2008-09.

It was a different story in the US of course. For them 2008-09 was more or less equivalent to the 1990-92 recession we experienced up here in terms of unemployment, and misery and hopelessness in general.

#232 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.09.18 at 11:16 am

@#175 Larry,

I’ve had similar experiences, though not in a large group like that. I sold a piece of fitness equipment on Kijiji a few months ago. The “kid” who showed up (around 30 years of age, a lawyer actually), asked if I could take it apart for him (fair enough) and also deliver it and put it back together at his condo. Why? Because he had no hand tools and no idea how to use them. We’re talking about a few nuts and bolts here, not overhauling a 350 block in your classic Camaro or anything.

When I told him he didn’t need a big toolkit, just a ratchet and a wrench, he phoned his wife right in front of me and asked her if they had “a ratchet and a wrench” kicking around the condo somewhere. He annunciated ‘ratchet’ and ‘wrench’ slowly and carefully as if he were describing mysterious artifacts. Never asked me the size of socket needed or even seemed aware why that would matter.

I can’t imagine how helpless that couple feels each time some little thing breaks in their house. God help them if they ever get a flat tire. I get that some people grow up without the strong father figure that would have taught the basics of hand tools. I don’t get how one can remain totally incurious about such basic survival skills past his 25th birthday.

Is that what the new de-genderized society has done to boys? Sorry, but I firmly believe there are basic “man skills” that every man should have, and he diminishes himself by not having them. If that sounds sexist, I don’t care.

I could tell by the way the poor sap spoke on the phone to his wife – totally deferential, supplicating, on eggshells – just how much his lack of basic man skills was costing him.

#233 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 11:17 am

#220 Smoking Man on 03.09.18 at 9:40 am
“Whackjob? Fake News? Care to elaborate. Didn’t think so. Like all lefties when you can’t win a debate you resort to name calling.”

I am not a leftie, you effing moron! Actually, that’s a mistake. Calling you a moron is an insult to all morons!
You’re at best an imbecile, but more likely an idiot. A simpleton!

You asked me to elaborate. See #203 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 8:51 am in today’s comment section.

#234 SimplyPut7 on 03.09.18 at 11:17 am

Against this backdrop of growing uncertainty, the let-it-burn crowd craves a collapse they think will hurt the wealthy and benefit the rest. Forget it.

——————————————–

I think having the house of cards burn down sooner will help the middle class heal faster, rather than having a lost decade like the US or Europe where politicians created false hope by promising to save jobs and the net worth of the middle class while bailing out banks.

I have family in the US, the downturn (2008 – 2014) was worse than how it was portrayed on Canadian television. Most of my family did not lose their jobs or homes, but the ones who did, had too much debt with very little savings and were never going to make it.

I agree with some parts of the following post:
#19 the ryguy on 03.08.18 at 6:23 pm

The more the homes increased in value in Toronto, the more people bought:
* expensive dogs/cats – prices went from $500 on kijiji to $1200 – $2500, per purebred dog
* SUVs and Trucks prices increased to over 70k – 80k before taxes and fees for cars that were marketed to the middle class
* Chrysler came out with the 60k + minivan http://driving.ca/chrysler/pacifica/reviews/road-test/minivan-review-2018-chrysler-pacifica-limited

I did not hear anyone say they would use the equity in their homes to grow their retirement fund, they instead bought:
* bigger cottages
* investment and vacation houses in the US
* investment condos in the GTA
* flipped condo assignments and flipped houses
* knocked down a perfectly good home to put up a home twice the size, to market to investors who had no plans of ever living in the house
* renovated kitchens, bathrooms and basements with money that will never be fully recovered in the sale of the home
* invested in syndicated mortgages and offered private loans to people even the banks did not want turn into debt slaves.

All of the people who have debt ratios of greater than 450% never had the means to pay back all of their debt even if they never lost their jobs and interest rates didn’t rise. They would have retired broke with not enough money to pay monthly expenses as all of the equity in the home was used to fund a lifestyle they never had the means to maintain.

We end this madness faster, so people can start saving again while they are still able to work and not wait for them to get to retirement and find out they need to move in with family because they are not financially independent and cannot afford to live on their own.

#235 Lee on 03.09.18 at 11:26 am

Most of the lost jobs were likely lost by men since there were major losses in manufacturing. Most of the gains were public service jobs, so I figure mostly women. It’s all part of Trudeau’s gender parity game. You know, like making sure female representation in Universities goes to 90% from the 70% its at today. Or increasing the female to male ratio of new hires in the prosecutor’s office in Ontario from 3 to 2, to a much more gender paritous 2 to 1. (I know, “paritous” is not a word, but them neither is “peoplekind”).

#236 Woody Allen (pater autem Tanya Granic) on 03.09.18 at 11:40 am

#215 Mark on 03.09.18 at 9:28 am
From the day we arrive on the planet
And blinking, step into the sun
……………..
But the sun rolling high through the sapphire sky
Keeps great and small on the endless round
**********

Everything you ever wanted to know about the Sun, but were afraid to ask:

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_Clockmaker

#237 Fake News Again on 03.09.18 at 11:48 am

IN other news…..the Govt hired 50,000 fresh new employee paper pushers to suck 100K year each out of a tax exhausted public……..

The slow burn towards a Marxist Kanada continues…..

#238 James on 03.09.18 at 11:51 am

In 49 BC, Julius Caesar and his army famously passed a point of no return: Disobeying direct orders, they
crossed the Rubicon river and attacked the Roman Senate, thereby igniting a fierce civil war that ended in Caesar becoming Rome’s dictator for life. We all know how well that worked out. et tu brute The result unforeseen by the assassins was that Caesar’s death precipitated the end of the Roman Republic. Isn’t it strange how history repeats itself over and over. Watch out Donny boy the ides of March are upon you.

#239 Smoking Man on 03.09.18 at 11:55 am

#231 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 11:17 am
#220 Smoking Man on 03.09.18 at 9:40 am
“Whackjob? Fake News? Care to elaborate. Didn’t think so. Like all lefties when you can’t win a debate you resort to name calling.”

I am not a leftie, you effing moron! Actually, that’s a mistake. Calling you a moron is an insult to all morons!
You’re at best an imbecile, but more likely an idiot. A simpleton!

You asked me to elaborate. See #203 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 8:51 am in today’s comment section.
…….

That’s one hell of a vocabulary. Simpleton, moron, imbecile. You are a lefty. Who calls themselves Gravy Train.

Next time go with neurosis or aberration or alienation. If you want to sound smart.

#240 Howard on 03.09.18 at 12:03 pm

#233 Lee on 03.09.18 at 11:26 am

Most of the lost jobs were likely lost by men since there were major losses in manufacturing. Most of the gains were public service jobs, so I figure mostly women. It’s all part of Trudeau’s gender parity game. You know, like making sure female representation in Universities goes to 90% from the 70% its at today. Or increasing the female to male ratio of new hires in the prosecutor’s office in Ontario from 3 to 2, to a much more gender paritous 2 to 1. (I know, “paritous” is not a word, but them neither is “peoplekind”).

———————————

Surely there are also ways to make the vast sisterhood that has infiltrated virtually every single HR department in Canada even more female dominated?

#241 MF on 03.09.18 at 12:05 pm

#235 Fake News Again on 03.09.18 at 11:48 am

Source for numbers and wages?

MF

#242 Fake News Again on 03.09.18 at 12:12 pm

#236 James on 03.09.18 at 11:51 am
In 49 BC, Julius Caesar and his army famously passed a point of no return: Disobeying direct orders, they
crossed the Rubicon river and attacked the Roman Senate, thereby igniting a fierce civil war that ended in Caesar becoming Rome’s dictator for life. We all know how well that worked out. et tu brute The result unforeseen by the assassins was that Caesar’s death precipitated the end of the Roman Republic. Isn’t it strange how history repeats itself over and over. Watch out Donny boy the ides of March are upon you.

_________

Yeah….I am sure President Trump is scared out of his mind by the mounting army of feminazis, soy boys and man/woman/zir gender (I can’t identify what I am today) individuals.

#243 Fake News Again on 03.09.18 at 12:16 pm

#210 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 9:07 am
Donald Trump is utterly unpredictable, but clearly protectionist. He threatens a global trade war in which Canada could end up roadkill. Such a conflict would curb growth, drop commodity values and hit oil – our major export. It would increase US consumer prices, fuel inflation and lead to higher American interest rates – and Canadian mortgages. For days now financial markets have been whip-sawing between despair and relief as the Trumpian Tweets fly. — Garth

Garth, you’ve made it abundantly clear over the years that you’re not a protectionist. How do you manage to attract so many whackjobs like Smoking Man and Fake News Again?

________

The Radical Left – the only time they call people names is when they lose an argument…….And in this case probably a Govt Worker lifer sucking the life out of the taxpayer.

#244 James on 03.09.18 at 12:18 pm

#151 Smoking Man on 03.08.18 at 10:57 pm
#116 NoName on 03.08.18 at 8:27 pm
How is that model 3 coming along…
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/08/elon-musk-sides-with-trump-on-trade-with-china-citing-25-percent-import-duty-on-american-cars.html
……
China has been over producing steel at a record clip and dumping the excess on world market.
You are not a nation if you give up your primary industries. You are a sitting duck. Musk is a smart guy. Naturally he gets it. Even hires people with zero degrees. He gets it.
Do they even teach what a primary industry is in school these days? Probably not. To busy demonizing and shaming straight white heterosexual males.
That’s why. Libralism will go extinct next election cycle. Print and put on this on the fridge.
I know the herd.
Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics
___________________________________________
After two years at Queen’s University, Musk transferred to the University of Pennsylvania. He took on two majors. Musk graduated with a Bachelor of Science in Physics, as well as a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from the Wharton School. The two majors speak to the direction Musk’s career would take later, but it was physics that made the deepest impression on his thinking. “(Physics is) a good framework for thinking,” he’d later say. “Boil things down to their fundamental truths and reason up from there.” Musk was 24 years old when he moved to California to pursue a PhD in applied physics at Stanford University. With the internet exploding and Silicon Valley booming, Musk had entrepreneurial visions dancing in his head. He left the PhD program after just two days. That was to start his first company Zip2 with this brother.
According to Elon
• He asks the candidate to tell the story of their career?
• What are the tougher problems they have dealt with?
• How did they deal with it?
• How did they make key decisions?
• Elon looks for pointers for Exceptional Ability
• Was the candidate responsible for any accomplishment?
• If so, ask them very detailed question about the problem they solved; Because the person who actually struggles with a problem, remembers the actual details of the problems and will be able to tell much detail about it. College or Formal Education is not an indicator for exceptional ability, so not much emphasis is given to degrees. Emphasis Little Smoking Twit, emphasis.

While you are partially correct Little Smoking Twit I can tell you with great knowledge that Elon Musk and or any of his companies did not build the Tesla models or put anything into space without utilizing the most brilliant of educated minds visa vi degrees, PHD’s and doctorates.
While you are really an uneducated person hiding behind an assumed made up PHD.

#245 Brett in Calgary on 03.09.18 at 12:19 pm

#36 Lopez

“Ask yourself: why the Albertan’s were able to afford BC housing but the people of BC could not? Would it have something to do with the BC economy being on life support for the past 20 years? I have a feeling that the life support is about to be switched off and the average people of BC will still be priced out of the market”.

———————————————————-

Yes, I agree. It’s unfortunately true, that BC hasn’t really had a robust economy for a long time, and real estate doesn’t count… as we are about to find out.

#246 MF on 03.09.18 at 12:20 pm

#230 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.09.18 at 11:16 am

While I applaud the value of survival skills, your statement that a lack of survival skills indicates a weak a father figure is a joke.

Having integrity, ambition, loyalty, and support has nothing to do with some power tools.

MF

#247 IHCTD9 on 03.09.18 at 12:22 pm

#233 Lee on 03.09.18 at 11:26 am
Most of the lost jobs were likely lost by men since there were major losses in manufacturing. Most of the gains were public service jobs, so I figure mostly women. It’s all part of Trudeau’s gender parity game. You know, like making sure female representation in Universities goes to 90% from the 70% its at today. Or increasing the female to male ratio of new hires in the prosecutor’s office in Ontario from 3 to 2, to a much more gender paritous 2 to 1. (I know, “paritous” is not a word, but them neither is “peoplekind”).
______________________________________

Yep. Trudeau knows there’s nothing better for a society than harbouring a shitload of single, young, unemployed Men with nothing to do, and nothing to look forward to.

#248 James on 03.09.18 at 12:24 pm

#231 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 11:17 am

#220 Smoking Man on 03.09.18 at 9:40 am
“Whackjob? Fake News? Care to elaborate. Didn’t think so. Like all lefties when you can’t win a debate you resort to name calling.”
I am not a leftie, you effing moron! Actually, that’s a mistake. Calling you a moron is an insult to all morons!
You’re at best an imbecile, but more likely an idiot. A simpleton!

You asked me to elaborate. See #203 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 8:51 am in today’s comment section.
_______________________________________
Smoking Man just got his bald ass handed to him, ha.
Smoking Man you just called someone a lefty. Therefore you resorted to name calling. Therefore being a Righty you have resorted to name calling. Just saying all things are equal now. Go have a drink old man its already 9:00 AM where you are in Cali.

#249 A J on 03.09.18 at 12:40 pm

This comment section is a cesspool today.

#250 Blacksheep on 03.09.18 at 12:41 pm

BS # 138,

“Real estate busts take place due to a lack of buyers not a rush to the exits of investors and owners. Look at Toronto. It is less sales driving prices down not increased listings. Inventory is increasing due to a lack of sales not an increase of people wanting to sell.”
———————————————–
My point was simply:

I do not expect a significant % of RE holdings from high wealth investors (multi residence owners, do not personally use/rent out their RE) to come flooding on the market, do new NDP taxes.

In other words, the NDP tax aims to increase the supply of rental stock available (this will happen) but also make available homes for the working class to purchase (this wont happen) RE is religion in Van and many are long term, buy and hold investors.

The Supply VS Demand equation is always in play, neither side controls the market, things move until equilibrium is achieved.

#251 Blacksheep on 03.09.18 at 12:43 pm

M # 141,

“Only a self centered ignorant gringo would say “Canada is not Spain” (or Portugal…or Greece)…

And my question is…”WHY?” When I look at the numbers.. PIIGS ‘r us.”
————————————
There is one, overwhelming gigantic game changing difference, between the “PIIGS” and Canada.

Can YOU tell us what that is?

#252 gary smith on 03.09.18 at 12:49 pm

When prices come down or soften in YVR, I wonder about those who bought further out and how they will fare. Especially with the bloated gas prices driving up the cost of their 5/7 day work commute, back into Vancouver.

They purchased further out because, obviously, they were priced out of Vancouver/Richmond/Burnaby.

I know many from my work who purchased in Abbotsford, Langley, Maple Ridge, etc- and still commute into Burnaby/Vancouver for work.

#253 Lee on 03.09.18 at 1:02 pm

#247 AJ,

You must be new to this blog.

#254 Newcomer on 03.09.18 at 1:07 pm

#188 victorious on 03.09.18 at 6:12 am
…. Hence lower real estate prices will benefit the savers and the ones that are not in debt up to their eyeballs and punish the people in debt and who did not save which is how it should work.
——

I agree with your general sentiments in this comment but I am not sure that rewarding savers is how it “should” work.

If everyone saved all they could, they would not be deploying that capital. If you work 40 hours, get paid 40 dollars and save 30 dollars of that, only ten dollars goes back into the economy to pay other people’s wages. This was one of the drivers of the Great Depression. The government encouraged people to economize and reduce waste, which meant that there was even less to go around. Modern government policy encourages spending over saving because everyone ends up with more that way. That doesn’t make it smart, on an individual level, to spend beyond your means and forego saving, but it does mean that government policy is likely to encourage it.

#255 IHCTD9 on 03.09.18 at 1:13 pm

#230 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.09.18 at 11:16 am
@#175 Larry,

I’ve had similar experiences, though not in a large group like that. I sold a piece of fitness equipment on Kijiji a few months ago. The “kid” who showed up (around 30 years of age, a lawyer actually), asked if I could take it apart for him (fair enough) and also deliver it and put it back together at his condo. Why? Because he had no hand tools and no idea how to use them. We’re talking about a few nuts and bolts here, not overhauling a 350 block in your classic Camaro or anything.

…Is that what the new de-genderized society has done to boys? Sorry, but I firmly believe there are basic “man skills” that every man should have, and he diminishes himself by not having them. If that sounds sexist, I don’t care.

I could tell by the way the poor sap spoke on the phone to his wife – totally deferential, supplicating, on eggshells – just how much his lack of basic man skills was costing him.

________________________

I watched a young guy attempt to change a tire once. He had no idea what he was doing. 5 lug nuts and 1 tire iron, resulted in fear + confusion for this guy.

Changing a tire is a JK level Man skill. “Man skill” designations are bestowed upon Men by Women – this is seen by observation. I have seen this firsthand by watching the reactions of my sister in laws to work I’ve done around the IHCTD9 compound. Women like independent Men with their own hobbies and earthy abilities. They love it when you can improve the “nest” and impress her friends. They love it when you can save them from a perilous auto breakdown induced stay at some slimy hotel in a deadbeat city. They are very happy to learn you fixed a 250.00 part for 2.50.

It’s more than the individual skills though – it’s the inherent masculinity displayed by handling the unknown and unexpected. The abilities to impress through experience, knowledge, perseverance, resolve, strength, and a boatload of other masculine traits that are embedded with such unassuming tasks such as redoing a roof, building a new deck, or renovating the bathroom. These traits earn a Man his Wife’s (and peers) respect.

I blame the internet. Too much time spent surfing and gaming means few worldly skills are deposited into the toolbox of life. That’s why my kids are MADE to help Dad (and Mom too) with basic general maintenance of our mechanicals, house and property.

Young Men in the near future are going to have a tough time with their wives if they can’t take the bull by the horns and make things happen.

#256 Fake News Again on 03.09.18 at 1:17 pm

Salaries, Benefits and 20 years of “laying around doing nothing but spending tax dollars” Golden Hand Shake PENSIONS……

Go look up the exact numbers yourself lazybones…..

#257 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.09.18 at 1:17 pm

MF, aside from the fact that I was talking about basic hand tools, not power tools, where did I conflate “integrity, ambition, loyalty, and support” with any of what I said? I was talking about basic survival skills that a man should have, and was quite clear on that. I never once commented on the kid’s character. Nice straw man though.

#258 IHCTD9 on 03.09.18 at 1:37 pm

#244 MF on 03.09.18 at 12:20 pm
#230 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.09.18 at 11:16 am

While I applaud the value of survival skills, your statement that a lack of survival skills indicates a weak a father figure is a joke.

Having integrity, ambition, loyalty, and support has nothing to do with some power tools.

MF
____________________________________

Integrity, ambition, loyalty, and support are not skills. Skills are learned through mentorship, actions, doing, and time.

Just about any practical skill you can name involves something resembling a tool.

#259 Doug in London on 03.09.18 at 1:46 pm

@Stan Brooks, post #227:
Yes, it’s outrageous but you can fight back by recouping some of these increased costs in dividends. Telecom stocks are on sale now like BCE, trading at about $56.90, not far from its 52 week low. That’s a yield of about 5% at that price.

#260 Karma on 03.09.18 at 1:49 pm

Let Bitcoin Burn…

“Bitcoin is ridiculous, Blockchain is dangerous”.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-03-09/bitcoin-is-ridiculous-blockchain-is-dangerous-paul-ford

#261 Ian on 03.09.18 at 1:57 pm

For those saying our banks will be fine with our housing problem…I’m going to say not likely.

It only took a 30% average price decline in housing in the US to cause one trillion dollars of damage. We are already on 17% drop at least in the GTA. And our housing affordability metrics were way beyond what the US had at its top.

Also, as I’ve pointed out in the past on here, our banks have allowed very little in loan loss provisions. I sure hope they don’t need the taxpayer’s help.

Someone needs to figure out how to get them to stop lending so irresponsibly.

Worry about the taxpayers, not the banks. – Garth

#262 IHCTD9 on 03.09.18 at 1:59 pm

#252 Newcomer on 03.09.18 at 1:07 pm

I agree with your general sentiments in this comment but I am not sure that rewarding savers is how it “should” work.

If everyone saved all they could, they would not be deploying that capital. If you work 40 hours, get paid 40 dollars and save 30 dollars of that, only ten dollars goes back into the economy to pay other people’s wages. This was one of the drivers of the Great Depression. The government encouraged people to economize and reduce waste, which meant that there was even less to go around. Modern government policy encourages spending over saving because everyone ends up with more that way. That doesn’t make it smart, on an individual level, to spend beyond your means and forego saving, but it does mean that government policy is likely to encourage it.
______

You’re not necessarily wrong, but keep in mind that the second largest and one of the fastest growing economies in the world is driven by a population that has one of the highest savings rates in the world (30+%).

Also, modern day Globalization means that less spending here of consumer goods means retailers and dealerships might close up with few jobs lost. Maybe they’ll abandon brick and mortar and go online. It’s the manufacturers of said goods who will experience the big job losses – these losses will undoubtedly be located far away, and are not substantially and directly related to our GDP.

#263 James on 03.09.18 at 2:34 pm

#240 Fake News Again on 03.09.18 at 12:12 pm

#236 James on 03.09.18 at 11:51 am
In 49 BC, Julius Caesar and his army famously passed a point of no return: Disobeying direct orders, they
crossed the Rubicon river and attacked the Roman Senate, thereby igniting a fierce civil war that ended in Caesar becoming Rome’s dictator for life. We all know how well that worked out. et tu brute The result unforeseen by the assassins was that Caesar’s death precipitated the end of the Roman Republic. Isn’t it strange how history repeats itself over and over. Watch out Donny boy the ides of March are upon you.

_________

Yeah….I am sure President Trump is scared out of his mind by the mounting army of feminazis, soy boys and man/woman/zir gender (I can’t identify what I am today) individuals.
____________________________________________
Nope, he isn’t scared of anything that he can bully, buy or bury with the help of his lawyers and that is what is going to be his demise! He is too stupid to know the writing is on the wall “that is if he ever read anything.”
What is going to take him down is his own stupidity and his lack of ethics in the white house and his own house. Its going to be Stormy Danielle’s and Jessica Drake that that take him down. What the hell they have already taken down his pants!
BTW You must have gone to the same school of Trump with Smoking Man. Same writing skills or therefore lack of.

#264 James on 03.09.18 at 3:02 pm

#241 Fake News Again on 03.09.18 at 12:16 pm

#210 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 9:07 am
Donald Trump is utterly unpredictable, but clearly protectionist. He threatens a global trade war in which Canada could end up roadkill. Such a conflict would curb growth, drop commodity values and hit oil – our major export. It would increase US consumer prices, fuel inflation and lead to higher American interest rates – and Canadian mortgages. For days now financial markets have been whip-sawing between despair and relief as the Trumpian Tweets fly. — Garth

Garth, you’ve made it abundantly clear over the years that you’re not a protectionist. How do you manage to attract so many whackjobs like Smoking Man and Fake News Again?

________

The Radical Left – the only time they call people names is when they lose an argument…….And in this case probably a Govt Worker lifer sucking the life out of the taxpayer.
____________________________________
I’m not a lefty and all I can say is the truth is out there!
Stop reading Breitbart News Network.
Drudge Report.
Independent Journal Review.
LifeZette.
The Gateway Pundit.
Newsmax.
PJ Media.
Right Side Broadcasting Network.
Try reading multiple sights and get all the facts first!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikMCJdkzJJs

#265 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.18 at 3:07 pm

@#226 DD Corkum
“This wouldn’t be the first recession for all Millenials. The cohort began entering the workforce a decade ago, during the 2008-2009 one.”

+++++
I was referring to Canada and if you consider the blip in ’08 09 a “recession”…….you aint seen nuthin yet.
Multi year, crushing unemployment…..dats wut Im talkin ’bout Willis.

#266 waiting on the westcoast on 03.09.18 at 3:32 pm

Karma – sorry, forgot to respond to your request a few days ago about the development that was struggling with a few foreign investors backing out of condo sales. Unfortunately, I won’t reveal the name because it was told to me in confidence. Sorry – I realize anecdotal, anonymous data is not the best source of news… :-)

#263 – crowded… I think you are correct that Canadians have not felt a full bore recession in a long while. The millennials largely have not felt the stress a family goes under during that time. It will be even more challenging for them.

For me, I just sold one of my businesses at a great valuation in the US to get ready for some business buying opps here in Canada. I am anticipating recession here in late 2018 / early 2019.

#267 earthboundmisfit on 03.09.18 at 3:37 pm

Insurance adjusters call that greek lightning.

#268 Steven Rowlandson on 03.09.18 at 3:38 pm

Garth are you worried about the banks and governments taking a bath when it comes to mortgages due to a massive home price crash even one as big as what I envision? Hundreds of billions worth of bad loans due to the lack of enough well paid greater fools. The debts and dollars are only numbers Garth.
The greater fools that did the home buying and mortgage lending need a reality check. They need a long sharp shock to wake them up out of their dream world.

The essential truth is that most people don’t have 6 figure incomes or better. It isn’t even close.
The market and its fans for have overplayed their hand financially if not legally.

In the world of small business and the trades wage rates are not that big, profits are not always very big and hours can be quite variable or limited…. That is the real world.
The capacity to support the real estate market and live at the same time is limited to non existent. That is why I expect to see a serious implosion of prices and or an explosion of very profitable and convenient home fires caused by lightning strikes. Some people will do anything for money and the picture at the top of the web page is no joke it is a prediction.

#269 Stan Brooks on 03.09.18 at 4:04 pm

#266 Steven Rowlandson on 03.09.18 at 3:38 pm

6 digits income? You will die hungry with 100k in the big cities.

You need north of 300 k annual income to get a house in GTA/Vancouver

The debts and dollars are only numbers Garth.

These numbers will translate rather quickly to inflation and taxpayers liability via the hundreds of billions of ultra-subprime mortgages (abolish CMHC and Genworth and transfer those to the banks if it ain’t so)

BTW thanks for the great news (90 k full time jobs lost, government hired 50 k full time, 53 k part time workers found a second job), yay! CAD is up.

#270 He Left Ontario on 03.09.18 at 4:07 pm

A couple of us know about a man who invested in a different type of Real Estate. He bought himself a sailing yacht and retired early in life. Now he sails the Caribbean and uses technology working with various island governments with drones making videos for them, as well as, all the marinas. He is making a very good tax free income, and gets lots of free barter work done. His social life is amazing with women coming and going to sail and party. What could one ask for more, as he’s living his dream.

#271 TheDood on 03.09.18 at 4:09 pm

248 Blacksheep on 03.09.18 at 12:41 pm

…RE is religion in Van and many are long term, buy and hold investors.
___________________________

Give it a year, rates go up (and they will), economy stagnates a little, inventory builds, buyers stay away, jobs are lost, and majority of these long term investors will be reaching into their own pockets and financing their RE “investments” with their own $. Recovery will be long and slow, BC doesn’t have the kind of economy that would precipitate a quick recovery. No matter what anyone says, RE investment in Canada is a terrible place to park money right now, unless in your own home that is affordable and is not treated like an investment. Those that have RE “investments” are gonna lose. The writing has been on the wall for a while now.

#272 Steven Rowlandson on 03.09.18 at 4:17 pm

Re #147
“He got his post national Canada. Deplorables are international, no borders.”

The deplorables are not just middle class or working class red necks. They are white nationalists and national socialists. They are a multi national group of people who want what is good for their nation and race.
That is National Socialism. It has nothing to do with Jews and Marxism. Being NS is pro christian, patriotic and old school. So if they be deplorable what about their critics?

#273 Boots on the Ground in Ptown on 03.09.18 at 4:19 pm

#37 Reality is stark on 03.08.18 at 6:37 pm

All the bad news ahead is a given. However we are forgetting the canary in the coal mine.
Take the time to speak to a millennial. They honestly believe Hugo Chavez was the second coming. We are destined to be Venezuela 2. All the seeds are being sown. The capitalist values you grew up with are seen as mean spirited. Mediocre people don’t like high achievers.
Americans however understand how well a country performs when the mantra is to become a high achiever because high achievers don’t like mediocrity.
It took 30 years for the socialists to destroy Venezuela, it shouldn’t take this bunch quite as long to destroy Canada.
———————————————————-

“The capitalist values you grew up with are seen as mean spirited.”

I thought your comment a great lead in to the link I was set to share today. I agree with you as well as Garth and am not wealthy myself, nor do I consider myself a hard line capitalist.

Everything is interconnected; wishing for others to fail in hopes it spurns our own success requires a good hard look at how and why our thoughts about money in general are somehow messed up.

I give you the blog Affordanything.com-
http://affordanything.com/2018/02/19/8-money-myths-holding-you-back/

***Offense alert all Mills! (I’m one myself) and SJWer’s! I’m sure her blog will be viewed as skewed and unfair but for the sake of all that open mindedness…check it out.

SCM, for sure you’re lurking today. Read her blog post in the link above or watch the 4 short youtube vids she’s embedded. All of us could use some soul searching on the subject of money.

Here’s a blurb from the link:
“For example, if you’re someone who’s an *&$% and you come in to a bunch of money, then you’re just an *&$% with a bunch of money. Money amplifies who we ALREADY are.”

She talks about frugality being an odd form of consumerism. This got me since I tend towards this myself. Go on, check it out. Some good weekend pondering.

#274 crossbordershopper on 03.09.18 at 4:21 pm

i dont understand that people think $15 per hour is starvation wage. i could live comfortably on $15 hour, quite. i have worked for nothing in my own business for years. sure i make more than 15 an hour, but i did survive on less than $15 hour.
What i dont understand is why people who have worked for 25 years making 30 an hour have no money savings or a house.
if i could support a family of 3 on 850 a month, anyone can, we all wear cloths, sure I have bought stuff for $1 or even 50 cents, at junk stores. i got wonderfull winter boats for 50 cents 5 years ago still wearing them, i have 4 pairs for my 2 bucks(no tax) due to charity.
so, yes my wiinter clothing budget of $2 should last me my lifetime, just an example of life.
the old store of the sone of the old guy sobeys. when frank his son went to visit him back in nova scotia back in 1981 he was dying of cancer and said dad what you eating he said a hard boiled egg. so, a guy with hundreds of grocery stores in the end ended up eating hard boiled egg.
litterly food for thought. people can get by on almost nothing. and survive quite well

#275 Robert on 03.09.18 at 4:24 pm

Canadian Real Estate Debt Passed 76% of GDP. … [Mortgage debt is now at the highest ratio compared to the economy it has ever been.]

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-debt-passed-76-of-gdp-heres-the-new-problem-we-have/

#276 Choke Chain on 03.09.18 at 4:33 pm

260 posts and nobody linked this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYuldgIOelY

#277 Larry M on 03.09.18 at 4:38 pm

I forgot to add that when I have a good vantage point, at least 50% of the class is surfing the web or something on their computers when the teacher is teaching and then they complain that they don’t understand the material.

We had to wear steel toed boots/shoes to some classes and most complained about steel toed boots/shoes not going with their clothes.

I just don’t get what they expect out of everything when minimal effort is put in on their part. Maybe they are just waiting for an inheritance? I don’t have kids and sure am glad I never did. The world is going to collapse because of them.

#278 Ed. on 03.09.18 at 4:41 pm

I think you need a comma here:

His social life is amazing with women coming and going, to sail and party.

#279 Blacksheep on 03.09.18 at 4:43 pm

Dood # 269,

“248 Blacksheep on 03.09.18 at 12:41 pm
…RE is religion in Van and many are long term, buy and hold investors.
___________________________
“Give it a year, rates go up (and they will), economy stagnates a little, inventory builds, buyers stay away, jobs are lost,”
—————————————–
I’m not saying prices won’t drop, they will.

I’m saying I don’t see a flood of “investors” dumping Van RE.

When I say investor, I mean that parties with deep pockets and no debts that actually drove the prices up to begin with (bought years ago) holding multiple units and could afford to just let RE sit empty until the new taxes.

Not your local small time speculator.

Other than that, I agree….

#280 dan on 03.09.18 at 4:45 pm

Make your kids learn Mandarin. Soon, China will rule the world and China is ruled by communists so will be you.
Forget your ancestors, all those Ukrainian camp guards or Italian mobsters. Soon all of you will be comrades and brothers.

#281 Entrepreneur on 03.09.18 at 4:48 pm

Professional people started moving out of BC for the last 20 years with an increase every year passing. So I know what the youth are going through #166 Tech Shrek. And know about Rand. And to have that ideal world, would be nice. But it is not and I have lived it.

But how to get to Rand’s goals like individualism and capitalism? Is it possible with leaders that break their promises like the electoral reform? and other lies? Again and again! We need a leader that speaks for the people within borders so we work towards individualism and capitalism.

We need action to go in the correct direction. After years of the same old leaders time to pick/vote for another party/parties. And one has to give up some beliefs for that to happen.

#282 Eyestrain on 03.09.18 at 4:58 pm

#272 crossbordershopper on 03.09.18 at 4:21 pm
i dont understand that people think $15 per hour is starvation wage. i could live comfortably on $15 hour, quite. What i dont the old store of the sone of the old guy sobeys. when frank his son went to visit him back in nova scotia back in 1981 he was dying of cancer and said dad what you eating he said a hard boiled egg. so, a guy with hundreds of grocery stores in the end ended up eating hard boiled egg. litterly food for thought. people can get by on almost nothing. and survive quite well
*******
If there’s a parable here I just don’t see it. His tombstone read ” He was a good egg”

#283 Mouths of Babes on 03.09.18 at 5:14 pm

#277 dan on 03.09.18 at 4:45 pm
Make your kids learn Mandarin. Soon, China will rule the world and China is ruled by communists so will be you.
Forget your ancestors, all those Ukrainian camp guards or Italian mobsters. Soon all of you will be comrades and brothers.

***********
True Story (2nd hand from last year, and a very precocious child – not mine ):

Mother to child : Canada is going to be 150 years old next year and there will be lots of parties. Isn’t that great?

FIVE Year-old: Yeah, if the Chinese don’t take us over first

#284 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.09.18 at 5:46 pm

@#257 AJ
“This comment section is a cesspool today.”

*******

And today differs from any other day how?

#285 waiting on the westcoast on 03.09.18 at 5:48 pm

#275 Ed. on 03.09.18 at 4:41 pm
I think you need a comma here:

His social life is amazing with women coming and going, to sail and party.

LOL – or maybe not…

#286 Comma Visual on 03.09.18 at 6:30 pm

No mistake intended, as wanted a pause in the sentence structure for you to catch your breath. I am sure it gave you a visual wanting to be him on board.

#287 Gravy Train on 03.09.18 at 9:26 pm

#239 Smoking Man on 03.09.18 at 11:55 am
“You are a lefty.”

#243 Fake News Again on 03.09.18 at 12:16 pm
“The Radical Left – the only time they call people names is when they lose an argument….”

Do you both even know what a lefty is?

Here’s the Merriam Webster-dictionary definition of a lefty: 2 : an advocate of leftism.

Here’s the definition of leftism: 1 : the principles and views of the left; also : the movement embodying these principles
2 : advocacy of or adherence to the doctrines of the left

And here’s the definition of the left:
4 often capitalized
a : those professing views usually characterized by desire to reform or overthrow the established order especially in politics and usually advocating change in the name of the greater freedom or well-being of the common man
b : a radical as distinguished from a conservative
position

Doesn’t that definition of lefty exactly describe you and Trump? You effing morons!

(For greater clarity, my position is conservative, and yours is radical.)

#288 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.09.18 at 10:43 pm

One segment of the buying public flourishes and gets mich richer during downturns , interest hikes and recesesions…..civil servant, crown Corp contractors (double dipping untetired civil servants like teachers, copy s, civil engineers, administrators etc) …..they never lose their jobs, continue to get raises, govt hires include the vote blocs who remain loyal and the media industry who supports incimbsnts. Stimulus, sonnecessasy during recessions goes straight into the union blocs pockets. So don’t expect a huge and cry from that wusrter…..like the Kinder zmorgsn protestor who gets paid by an American , out unions will also spot in the face of acrownturn and lick the sweet cream of taxpayer dollars.

#289 Gravy Train on 03.10.18 at 6:17 am

#239 Smoking Man on 03.09.18 at 11:55 am
“Who calls themselves Gravy Train?”

You don’t even know what a gravy train is, do you, numbskull?

Again, let’s turn to the Merriam Webster dictionary, and get the definition of gravy train, you lamebrain:
: a much exploited source of easy money; also : gravy 2a

Here’s the relevant definition of gravy:
2 a : something additional or unexpected that is pleasing or valuable
• with expenses now paid, future money is pure gravy —K. Crossen

Does it all make sense to you now, dimwit? Maybe not! (My contributions are likely not pleasing or valuable to you.)

#290 Gravy Train on 03.10.18 at 6:35 am

#280 dan on 03.09.18 at 4:45 pm
“Make your kids learn Mandarin. Soon, China will rule the world, and China is ruled by communists—so will you be.”

I was thinking about learning to speak Russian! Did I bet on the wrong horse? Isn’t Putin POTUS? I know that China owns most of the U.S. debt, but doesn’t Putin own Trump? :)