The inevitable

The rubble starts to emerge after politicians carpet-bombed the housing market. The numbers out of  Toronto, southern Ontario, Alberta and the Lower Mainland are, well, awful. You can smother these porkers snout to tale in lip gloss and they’re still pigs.

Take the GTA for example. Sales crashed 35%. The average detached is 17% cheaper than it was a year ago. Inventory is scant since sellers are afraid of falling values. Were it not for the crazy moister condo market (which just took a 30% dive), this would be a full-fledged flop.

And here’s how the real estate board sold it:

“Single-family detached and attached benchmark prices were down slightly compared to February 2017.  The overall average selling price for February sales was down 12.4% year-over-year to $767,818. However, putting aside the price spike reported in the first quarter of 2017, it is important to note that February’s average price remained 12 per cent higher than the average reported for February 2016, which represents an annualized increase well above the rate of inflation for the past two years.”

You know things are wobbly when realtors have to reach back two years for a comparison. No comfort there for anyone who – based on realtor hyperbole a year ago – bought last spring at Peak House. And did you notice the reference to the ‘benchmark’ price? This is the fabricated Frankenumber designed to mask current market trends – especially when they’re cascading lower.

After all, how do you reconcile this…

“The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 3.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis for the TREB market area as a whole.” (Real estate board news release.)

…with this?

Prices for single detached family homes fell 17.2% in the GTA to just over $1 million – weighed down by an 18.6% decline to $1.28 million in the city of Toronto, and a 17.8%  drop to $911,065 in the 905 region. The number of single detached houses sold in the GTA fell by 41.2%… Prices tumbled, with the average sales price for all housing types falling 12.4% to $767,818. (Financial Post news report.)

You can’t, of course. The market seems to be in price freefall. And no wonder.

Trump’s tariffs (suddenly back on the table) will increase US consumer prices and inflation, and likely bring higher Fed interest rates. Tuesday night’s shocking departure of Trump’s big economic guy, Gary Cohn, is immensely destabilizing. The B20 stress test is just starting to bite – with an estimated 20% of borrowers being punted by the banks. BC’s gone hard-lefty with the fat go-home tax, the empty-house tax and the massive ‘spec tax’ on second properties, now ensnaring fellow Canadians. Mortgage rates have risen and Ontario’s launched universal rent controls and new tenant-friendly, landlord-spanking rules. It’s the perfect storm. Momentum is gone. Buyers are rattled. Sellers stunned.

And look at the results.

In Calgary sales fell 18% last month from year-ago numbers which themselves sucked. “You have to be really realistic,” a local realtor told Cowtown radio listeners yesterday. “The market isn’t what it was three years ago.” Ya think?

In Victoria so far in March sales are running at exactly 50% less than last year. That city is now smothered in both the anti-foreigner 20% tax premium, plus the 2% annual whack on all out-of-towners who own places in this popular winter haven. “It’s a speculation tax, and we are not speculators,” a 72-year-old retiree from Ontario who owns a condo told the CBC. “We’ve lived here for 12 years.” Now she has to cough up $9,400 a year – or sell.

In Vancouver, property sales last month fell 9% and detacheds were creamed with a 17% decline. Prices have yet to move in a market where real estate speculation is eternal and house lust unabated, but the NDP changes – combined with the mortgage stress test – are expected to take a toll over the coming months.

In London February sales fell 33% and inventory’s at the lowest level in a decade. In Montreal – an exception- sales nudged up 5% and prices gained 6% – but at just $310,000 the average house would not buy the average garage in YVR or 416. In Saskatoon, where houses are also cheap and sales were down 6%, local realtors reported their Frankenumber is at the lowest point in six years. “With the exception of a couple of months in the spring of last year, the HPI composite value has been in an overall decline since August of 2016 when the value was $317,600.”

See the pattern? When it comes to residential real estate as an investment, there is a rising tide of risk. New buyers wonder if they’re grasping a falling knife. Families who over-stretched and gave in to FOMO in the last two years may have lost all their equity. Retirees afraid to downsize last year, spooked at where they might go, now see windfall gains pass them by. Amateur landlords and small-time speckers with a condo or two coming to market face negative cash flow, coddled tenants and tax scrutiny. And the poor schmucks ‘from away’ who love BC enough to have a rec property there have just been gulag-ed.

Finally, here’s what housing analyst and blog dog Hanny Elsayed had to say after I asked him to dive into today’s stats:

These are the themes I see for the 12 detached markets that I cover:

  • In most markets, Sales are at, or near, the lowest they have been since 2012/2013 (demand is currently low)
  • In most markets, Active Listings are at, or near, the highest they have been since 2012/2013 (supply is currently high)
  • At this time last year, in most markets, the opposite was true: sales were high and listings were low. This was reflected by Q1 2017 having the highest sales-to-active-listings ratios since 2012.
  • All 12 markets covered now have a lower average and median price than last year.
My site only provides backward-looking data, there are no forecasts. If a reader were to think about the current state of low sales, higher inventories and declining prices, they should ask themselves several questions to guide them toward possible future outcomes.
  • What impact is the Ontario Fair Housing Plan likely have?
  • How are lending conditions changing (due to OSFI B20 and interest rate changes) and what is the likely impact?
  • Is home affordability at a reasonable level today?
  • Why are so few potential buyers buying with the additional inventory now available?
  • What are the catalysts for upward home price movements?
Maybe these questions will be fodder for the comments section discussion tonight. I would love to hear what your readers think.
 .

Real estate was already in danger from debt and delirium. Now governments want to finish it off. If you think we’ll get cheap houses without hurt, think again.

253 comments ↓

#1 MF on 03.06.18 at 5:03 pm

What impact is the Ontario Fair Housing Plan likely have?

-It will force up already way too high rents, and reduce supply since developers will be more wary. Basically higher prices + rents. Like the minimum wage hike it was all optics and stupid economics.

How are lending conditions changing (due to OSFI B20 and interest rate changes) and what is the likely impact?

-Temporary blip then people will adjust and prices will march back up. It if goes too low it will be repealed. This is for the GTA, I couldn’t care less about the RE markets in other cities.

Is home affordability at a reasonable level today?

-Worst in our history. All thanks to ZIRP.

Why are so few potential buyers buying with the additional inventory now available?

-Lots of watching and waiting. House prices are still way too high.

What are the catalysts for upward home price movements?

-ZIRP, easy credit, perceived lack of alternative investments, poor financial literacy, RE industry propaganda, social pressure.

MF

#2 Peter McLean on 03.06.18 at 5:08 pm

Quick! Everyone do whatever everyone else is doing!

#3 BlorgDorg on 03.06.18 at 5:08 pm

BRING ON THE HURT

WOOF WOOF WOOF

#4 RentYVR on 03.06.18 at 5:13 pm

“You know things are wobbly when realtors have to reach back two years for a comparison. ”

I get (and share) your sentiment here Garth, but who really purchases a house with a 1 year time horizon. Like stocks and bonds, or perhaps even more so, houses are multi-year investments so focusing on 1 year or 2 year numbers is crazy. So what if you bought at what looks like the peak last year; if you’re like most people and you’re holding for 20-30 years the 1 year stat is just noise.

#5 Righty Robert on 03.06.18 at 5:14 pm

Not a chance in BC.

You can rely on all the anecdotal evidence you want – realtor babble on Calgary radio, fellow self-interested blog dogs, and cherry pick any number of sales stats you want.

The fact is, prices have barely budged in BC. We could take an instant hit of 30% and anyone who bought 2016 or prior is still laughing.

#6 Brian Ripley on 03.06.18 at 5:20 pm

Families who over-stretched and gave in to FOMO in the last two years may have lost all their equity. Garth

Yeah – Vancouver may have led the FOMO crowd up the ladder, but Toronto is still sending them down the snake.

From my chart comparing Vancouver & Toronto Housing
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

HIGHER PRICES
60% more for a SFD in VAN
28% more for a Town House in VAN
29% more for a Condo in VAN

1.7 more Listings in TOR than VAN
2.3 x more Sales in TOR than VAN
Monthly Absorption Rate GTA:VAN = 1.4

Ratio of SFD to Strata
1 VAN SFD = 2.0 VAN Town Houses
1 TOR SFD = 1.6 TOR Town Houses
1 VAN SFD = 2.3 VAN Condos
1 TOR SFD = 1.9 TOR Condos

10 Year SFD Inflation Rate:
​VAN = 110% and TOR = 110%

​​Annual Precipitation VAN/TOR = 2/1

#7 waiting on the westcoast on 03.06.18 at 5:21 pm

With so many head fakes over the past decade, it seems the next few years may finally be a sad reckoning. I know many people in YVR/LM who have fully bought into the typical arguments why RE cannot go down. They are going to be in for a shock…

Here in Victoria, my landlord, after offering me to purchase at 1.39M said he was going to put the house on the market. He has now decided to postpone till August. Assessed at just over 1.2M, locals have told me that it should be priced at 1M…

Finally, my friends who works with a development company has now had 4 foreign buyers (out of 11 total) have walked away from deposits on their condos pre-sales. My buddies are asking if he thinks the locals (they bought the other 120+ units) might start balking. He says not yet but they are watching….

#8 Don't Believe The Hype on 03.06.18 at 5:24 pm

This will not end well.

#9 Howard on 03.06.18 at 5:28 pm

That TV peeling down the wallpaper and particleboard would raise the value of any house in Vancouver. The braindead people there would see it as trendy post-modern artwork.

#10 TEMPLE on 03.06.18 at 5:30 pm

“It’s a speculation tax, and we are not speculators,” a 72-year-old retiree from Ontario who owns a condo told the CBC. “We’ve lived here for 12 years.” Now she has to cough up $9,400 a year – or sell.

Except, they are speculators. If they live in BC, then they don’t get taxed. Except, they are probably paying Ontario taxes. Why? Because they are cheaper. It’s a dirty strategy and it is helping to price out people who actually live here year round, who pay taxes here, and who are tired of having to compete for property against rich “investors” playing house from other provinces. Not an ounce of sympathy for these people who “live here”.

#11 TRUMP on 03.06.18 at 5:30 pm

Did I hear CHEAP HOUSING………???

The time to make money is when there’s blood on the streets!!!

I see red on the horizon

$$$$$$$$$$!$!!!$$$$$$

#12 TurnerNation on 03.06.18 at 5:34 pm

I posted a few times to avoid rural Ontario property, that once Ontariowe goes BK they’ll cut rural services. Insurance for homes, businesses will be unavailable.

Calgary just announced the pre cursor to this…herding us into cities right?
A lefty 2nd world paradise.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/calgary/calgary-fire-department-10-minute-response-target-1.4563679

‘City council’s planning and urban development committee voted Monday to recommend a 10-minute response time for future communities on the city’s edges.”

#13 A J on 03.06.18 at 5:36 pm

#4 RentYVR

It’s not just noise if you overextended yourself last spring because of FOMO, and then realize, with falling equity, you need to offload your house. But, too bad, the market has tanked and you can’t recoup costs. You’re sunk.

#14 dakkie on 03.06.18 at 5:37 pm

DELETED

#15 40 cent Loonie on 03.06.18 at 5:39 pm

40 cent Loonie?

#16 Howard on 03.06.18 at 5:44 pm

#12 TurnerNation on 03.06.18 at 5:34 pm
I posted a few times to avoid rural Ontario property, that once Ontariowe goes BK they’ll cut rural services. Insurance for homes, businesses will be unavailable.

Calgary just announced the pre cursor to this…herding us into cities right?
A lefty 2nd world paradise.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/calgary/calgary-fire-department-10-minute-response-target-1.4563679

‘City council’s planning and urban development committee voted Monday to recommend a 10-minute response time for future communities on the city’s edges.”

————————————————-

Calgary could use a little “herding” into the city centre. It’s the most sprawled out wasteland of a city in the country. Building up rather out would be a good thing. Preserve the remaining farmland and countryside.

#17 Zapstrap on 03.06.18 at 5:47 pm

#9 Howard on 03.06.18 at 5:28 pm
That TV peeling down the wallpaper and particleboard would raise the value of any house in Vancouver. The braindead people there would see it as trendy post-modern artwork.

Yeah maybe … but … out here you just might expose some mould. Or lead paint … or …

#18 Reality is stark on 03.06.18 at 5:48 pm

Latest Maclean’s article referenced a price drop in Richmond Hill of 43% in 10 months. Who can absorb that kind of hit on a 1.5 million home? That is a guaranteed lifetime of pain with no chance of parole. Globalization has guaranteed stagnant family income in North America for years. There is no recovery for anyone buying at the peak who was sold down the river by a typical financially illiterate real estate agent.

#19 NotLegalAdvice on 03.06.18 at 5:50 pm

When will be the best time to pick up a detached home? This year? I’m thinking September the full effect of the B20 will be felt.

If you purchased too high, you’re over. I’m gonna sit back and pick up when the price is right!

#20 tccontrarian on 03.06.18 at 5:55 pm

“If you think we’ll get cheap houses without hurt, think again.”
=====================================

Originally you’re only suggestive of “a slow melt”, but now you’ve turned into almost alarmist! What gives?

Curious to see if we’ll witness a similar transition (eventually) regarding the stock markets: from ‘only a correction’, to a ‘crushing bear’!

Not advice … but get at least some gold!

TCC

#21 Still Not Cheap on 03.06.18 at 5:59 pm

“In Montreal – an exception- sales nudged up 5% and prices gained 6% – but at just $310,000 the average house would not buy the average garage in YVR or 416. In Saskatoon, where houses are also cheap and sales were down 6%.”

——————————————————

Awesome post Garth but I have to disagree with the statement above. As long as cities and towns across this country continue to compare their pricing to the madness in YVR and the GTA, prices are certainly NOT CHEAP. Just comparatively so and still insanely overvalued in their own right when compared to cities and towns of equal or far greater significance (i.e. Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia, Scottsdale, Las Vegas) south of the border.

Nearly $400K for a decent home to live in Regina or Winnipeg, like are you kidding me???

#22 Smartalox on 03.06.18 at 6:05 pm

The point here is that any single ‘fix’ to the housing market might have led to the fabled ‘soft landings’ in the various housing markets. The most natural of these being a rise in interest and mortgage rates.

But the combined effects of all of these various ‘interventions’ deployed at the local, provincial and federal levels, on top of naturally rising rates, the effects of inflation and the health of the job markets, have the potential to combine in strange and untested ways.

Nothing like these measures have been attempted previously, in the combinations that have been prescribed – but it doesn’t look like any of those rules are likely to cancel each other out, in terms of the net effect of housing prices.

But maybe that’s the point: the politicians at every level get to claim that they ‘did something’ about high housing prices, but when voters complain about lost equity and financial ruin, each and every one can point to some other cause and claim that they were innocent.

#23 Guy in Calgary on 03.06.18 at 6:15 pm

#10 TEMPLE on 03.06.18 at 5:30 pm

“It’s a speculation tax, and we are not speculators,” a 72-year-old retiree from Ontario who owns a condo told the CBC. “We’ve lived here for 12 years.” Now she has to cough up $9,400 a year – or sell.

Except, they are speculators. If they live in BC, then they don’t get taxed. Except, they are probably paying Ontario taxes. Why? Because they are cheaper. It’s a dirty strategy and it is helping to price out people who actually live here year round, who pay taxes here, and who are tired of having to compete for property against rich “investors” playing house from other provinces. Not an ounce of sympathy for these people who “live here”.
—————————————————————–

How is purchasing a condo to live in, in a place that you enjoy (BC), in a country you have presumably lived in your whole life, having paid CAD Federal income tax while still paying property taxes speculating?

How do you know they are “rich speculators” when they bought 12 years ago? A lot of people have purchased cottages or similar properties in BC, Muskoka and out East not to speculate but because they love the area and enjoy having property there.

Once again, going after the wrong people. BC will get what it wants, maybe more then they bargain for though.

#24 sugarlips on 03.06.18 at 6:16 pm

Awesome update Garth glad to see its all going per your predictions (except Montreal, what’s with that?)
Could you please come over to Australia for a months holiday and help cure our hopeless house horniness? The millenials and their children should* be eternally grateful.
*Except they’re Mills so forget the grateful bit ;)

#25 Andrew Woburn on 03.06.18 at 6:21 pm

backwardsevolution on 03.06.18 at 6:14 am
#26 Paddler and #60 Andrew Woburn – two more realtor shills sucking and blowing.
=====================

Actually no connection to real estate and no desire to sell any. That’s just what’s actually happening today in my neighbourhood. If you knew my history you would also know that I have warned about the volatility of pricing on Vancouver Island. I expect prices to level and slowly decline as the wave of lucky Vancouver retirees abates.

#26 Beso on 03.06.18 at 6:21 pm

We have an expression in prize fighting: “Everyone has a plan until they’ve been hit.” Well my friend, you’ve just been hit.

Charles Remington (The Ghost and the Darkness)

#27 Willy H on 03.06.18 at 6:25 pm

Year over year we are down so we finally have a pretty darn good indication of the direction we are headed.

It’s what this blog has been patiently waiting to see happen.

Let’s be realistic, prices for detached homes in southern Ontario and southern BC have been out of control for almost a decade.

When we return to 2011 price levels (hopefully by the end of 2020) we will be much closer to where we should be.

Residential housing should never outpace inflation or a national productivity. When it does, we are going to get a correction one way or another.

All assets revert to their mean.

We are not even close to the mean at this point.

#28 BlogDog123 on 03.06.18 at 6:26 pm

The thing is, that 20-year outlook on the value of housing… just a blip?

Sure, but people sometimes have unexpected events like a job promotion, much nicer house, family needs, or other needs to move. So if you bought last year and need to move 3 years from now (job changes) then you may lose out big time on housing…

#29 JSS on 03.06.18 at 6:28 pm

I understand that in order to avoid paying the BC spec tax, the owner(s) of the property in BC need to either live there full time and pay BC income taxes, or rent out the property nearly full time. Is this incorrect?

#30 TheDood on 03.06.18 at 6:29 pm

#1 MF on 03.06.18 at 5:03 pm

…..”-Temporary blip then people will adjust and prices will march back up. It if goes too low it will be repealed. This is for the GTA, I couldn’t care less about the RE markets in other cities.”
______________________________

How is this a temporary blip and exactly how are people going to adjust? Prices are on an irreversible down slide. The rug has been pulled and there is no safe landing for any RE market in Canada, especially GTA and YVR.

#31 common sense on 03.06.18 at 6:36 pm

Well have to give credit where credit is due….N. Korea back to talks, honouring creating tariffs….Donald is on a roll….

Watch out markets, we have increased volatility and we can buy and sell going up and down.

Happy days are here again!

#32 acdel on 03.06.18 at 6:39 pm

In 2008 with the market meltdown due to fraudulent numbers with people being in serious debt especially in housing, U.S. debt stood around 9 trillion. http://www.usdebtclock.org/2008.html

Now in 2018 (ten yrs later), people have more debt then the meltdown in 2008; the U.S. debt is almost 21 trillion. http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Many did not pay attention, politicians are scared sh*tless, banks are in panic mode; Trumps tax cuts will do nothing but cause more inflation and raise interest rates, wages are dead, the U.S. dollar will fall against the Yuan (2018 or 19) and a big time recession is coming.

But Canadians know better, sarcasm. You warned them Garth!

#33 Penny Henny on 03.06.18 at 6:39 pm

#188 Buddy on 03.06.18 at 3:36 pm
17 Wells Hill is grossly overpriced and overvalued. The property’s assessed value for 2017 was $1.366M, enough said.
//////////////////

Hey Buddy,
just a FYI but assessed value has very little to do with actual value.
Example last year my place was assessed for a fair bit under $600k, maybe 550 or so.
I sold for 950 at the end of May 2017, today comparables are about 870.
Oh a this was in Toronto proper.

#34 Penny Henny on 03.06.18 at 6:41 pm

oh today’s picture.
I didn’t get it at first.
But just missed the stud by this much

#35 TheDood on 03.06.18 at 6:42 pm

#7 waiting on the westcoast on 03.06.18 at 5:21 pm
With so many head fakes over the past decade, it seems the next few years may finally be a sad reckoning. I know many people in YVR/LM who have fully bought into the typical arguments why RE cannot go down. They are going to be in for a shock…
________________________________
I fully agree with your thinking. 99/100 people here are fully convinced RE will never dip – not even a little bit. In their defense, they’ve been blitzed by an awesome marketing campaign orchestrated by local RE cartel and others – Global News, Signage here there everywhere, TV and Radio commercials, HGTV, Capital Direct…….and it’s worked. The locals are 100% convinced that RE always goes up, never goes down, and its not a bad idea to have ALL your money invested in it.

#36 jim on 03.06.18 at 6:44 pm

#4

“f you bought at what looks like the peak last year; if you’re like most people and you’re holding for 20-30 years the 1 year stat is just noise.”

You are flirting both with iffy empirical claims and faulty reasoning.

In this case, we have a direct comparison: the US housing crash. People who bought at the peak certainly DID care that they were holding an asset worth less than what they paid. They walked away from mortgages, etc. Mental health, addictions, depression (etc) all spiked. The psychological fallout was anything but benign.

And you expect Canadians, who are generally more collectivist and who depend on government to solve problems, to witness major price declines and just whistle a happy tune?

I agree to the extent that people differ in terms of time horizons, but the empirical evidence from housing crashes does not support your claim.

Lastly, what do you think those people will do when their mortgage is up for renewal and they have to cough up cash to keep their house? An entire generation has become accustomed to continually rising prices.

#37 BobC on 03.06.18 at 6:45 pm

Two family members have owned their paid for homes for over 20 years. They both said they didn’t care if the price goes up or down.
That tells me only those that have bought in the 5-8 years are going to be hurt.
Isn’t it the same people cheering on the crash and supporting T2 and the liberals the same ones that’s going to be hurt the most?
Am I missing something?

#38 Whatcha Minnie on 03.06.18 at 6:47 pm

I took Thursday and Friday off to extend my weekend. I drove up to the mountains Wednesday night just before a blizzard hit. Six of us rented a cabin for 4 nights. We snowboarded during the day and cooked / hot tubbed / partied during the night. Saturday 4 more friends showed up and skied / stayed the night. So much fresh powder. I’m feeling whooped today but it was so worth it.

#39 Sam on 03.06.18 at 6:47 pm

Wake me up when prices fall 40% in GtA Vaughan etc. Until then none of this matters. Nothing is remotely affordable right now.

#40 jim on 03.06.18 at 6:47 pm

#5

“The fact is, prices have barely budged in BC. We could take an instant hit of 30% and anyone who bought 2016 or prior is still laughing.”

Umm, no. Unless they have sold their house they haven’t realized their gains, and the only major benefit is increased property taxes. HELOC rates are going up, so they could be in for a world of hurt if they used loans to leverage the ‘equity’ in their home.

Until they sell, they haven’t reaped those gains. And only 10k or so people sell each year in Vancouver. That’s hardly the entire population cashing out.

An instant hit of 30% would have no impact on BC? I highly doubt that.

Lastly, you do realize that high housing prices are correlated with lower wages and reduced job opportunities, right? Part of the reason that careers in Vancouver are terrible is precisely the high housing costs. I suggest digging up any one of hundreds of papers that studies the issue of the impact of housing prices on labor markets.

#41 Linda on 03.06.18 at 6:49 pm

Comment for Hanny is that first, the sharks smell blood in the water. The new rules will keep potential buyers out of the market unless prices drop enough to allow those who won’t qualify now to purchase. The fair housing deal will likely cause a number of landlords to try to shed non-profitable properties – their reason for having them was positive cash flow, not negative cash flow. Plus it seems to me that some of this legislation is to essentially transfer the responsibility for housing from government to private hands, what with capping rental rates etc. So if I owned an apartment building, the new rules may force me to subsidize tenants & good luck with trying to sell that puppy to someone who can read a cash flow summary.

As to why purchasers aren’t jumping in, everyone wants the best bargain. Why buy today when you think price drops are still to come? Eventually sales will occur but sellers are going to have to adjust their expectations of reaping big gains. Those who ‘have’ to sell right now are going to feel gypped by the market changes that have occurred, regardless of the fact they might still realize a higher price than what they originally paid. Everyone mourns the ‘big fish that got away’.

#42 Mark on 03.06.18 at 6:50 pm

“The fact is, prices have barely budged in BC. We could take an instant hit of 30% and anyone who bought 2016 or prior is still laughing.”

That’s not true at all. Prices have stagnated since 2013 in BC and the GTA. All you’ve seen from the Realtors in the years since have been numbers highly influenced by the substantially changed sales mix experienced in the post-2013 era.

While the mix exaggerated prices in the post-2013 era, removing those mix adjustments and normalizing will also cause an exaggeration of the downside.

Buyers in the post-2013 era, while they obviously paid too much, won’t be particularly hurt any more than they would have if they bought in 2013, 2012, etc. Sure, there’s probably the occasional person who was hoodwinked into paying ‘higher’ than 2013 prices in the post-2013 era, and they will be hurt badly. But RE has been stagnation for the past 5 years for most Canadian owners.

Latest Maclean’s article referenced a price drop in Richmond Hill of 43% in 10 months. Who can absorb that kind of hit on a 1.5 million home?

Nobody, simply because its not true. Just the mix adjustments coming out as mix changes are completely unsustainable and tend to be mean-reverting.

#43 Penny Henny on 03.06.18 at 6:54 pm

In most markets, Sales are at, or near, the lowest they have been since 2012/2013 (demand is currently low)
In most markets, Active Listings are at, or near, the highest they have been since 2012/2013 (supply is currently high)
At this time last year, in most markets, the opposite was true: sales were high and listings were low. This was reflected by Q1 2017 having the highest sales-to-active-listings ratios since 2012.-Hanny

/////////////////////

WWMS- What would Mark say?

#44 Victor V on 03.06.18 at 6:54 pm

February 2018: Detached, City of Toronto
http://torontorealestatecharts.com/2018/03/06/february-2018-detached-city-of-toronto/

– City of Toronto detached home sales down 33.9%, active listings up 121.5% YoY
– Sales to active listings ratio (SALR) is trending downward
– Average City of Toronto detached home price is down 18.5% YoY
– Median City of Toronto detached home price is down 20.2% YoY

February 2018: Detached, Richmond Hill
http://torontorealestatecharts.com/2018/03/06/february-2018-detached-richmond-hill/

– Richmond Hill detached home sales down 63.8%, listings up 272.5% YoY
– Sales to active listings ratio (SALR) is trending downward
– Average Richmond Hill detached home price is down 23.0% YoY
– Median Richmond Hill detached home price is down 22.3% YoY

February 2018: Detached, Markham
http://torontorealestatecharts.com/2018/03/06/february-2018-detached-markham/

– Markham detached home sales down 45.2%, active listings up 206.2% year-over-year (YoY)
– TTM Sales to active listings ratio (SALR) is trending downward
– Average Markham detached home price is down 27.6% YoY
– Median Markham detached home price is down 26.6% YoY

====
====

This will not end well.

#45 TEMPLE on 03.06.18 at 6:57 pm

How do you know they are “rich speculators” when they bought 12 years ago? A lot of people have purchased cottages or similar properties in BC, Muskoka and out East not to speculate but because they love the area and enjoy having property there.

I know they are because they have two houses while lots of people who actually live here can’t afford one. Who cares if they enjoy having property here? These speculators are affecting the ability of actual residents to afford property here, and they don’t pay taxes. So they can either make a real contribution to this province by paying the tax, becoming actual residents, or (best of all) they can get lost.

#46 cohn resigns on 03.06.18 at 6:57 pm

the shit show in The White House continues. Conveniently, the resignation was after market hours. And Trump not backing down from massive tariffs.Stock futures are a Sea of Red.

closed two positions today, lucky me..:)

#47 Dog in The Fight on 03.06.18 at 6:59 pm

Why should BC tax payers subsidize Ontario grandmother’s that choose to live out here much of the year? She has a choice. Use BC as her principle residence and pay her taxes here. Problem solved, that is until Ontario introduces the same thing, which they will.

#48 gfd on 03.06.18 at 7:03 pm

Who’s gonna take all this mortgage debt on Tuesday’s garbage day?

#49 Boombust on 03.06.18 at 7:03 pm

#5 Righty Robert

ER…not quite so fast. YVR prices are down. A lot.

Your buying 44’s go MUCH farher now than during the Spring, 2016 peak.

While a house might still “ask” $1M, you are now getting a much bigger, nicer and better-located house instead of a crack shack back then for the same money.

Ever think of that?

#50 Mark on 03.06.18 at 7:04 pm

“When we return to 2011 price levels (hopefully by the end of 2020) we will be much closer to where we should be. “

2011 price levels aren’t that much beneath current prices. And they were still in bubble/nosebleed territory. The US housing bubble’s collapse reverted prices similar to that of the mid 1990s, from levels not even as high and with subprime financing not even as ubiquitous as experienced in Canada. I personally expect nothing less from Canada, in light of the extreme leverage present in the economy.

Thinking that things will just stop at 20% down from current (ie: similar to 2013) levels is just wishful thinking. Once an asset class goes into physical oversupply, and the credit market develops a revulsion to lending additionally against it, its game over. So much capacity exists in the Canadian RE sector that it may very well be a generation before RE returns to such a large chunk of GDP. And this time around, the Bank of Canada (or the Fed) can’t just suppress interest rates meaningfully to rescue the speculators as they did “last time”.

#51 Boombust on 03.06.18 at 7:04 pm

…your buying $$’s…!

#52 Terry on 03.06.18 at 7:15 pm

Staying on the sidelines and waiting for prices to dramatically drop. We would have considered a move up move but not at the stupid inflated bubble prices and crappy inventory selection we have right now. Housing all around Southwestern Ontario is at least 50% OVERVALUED!!!! Prices MUST come down for us to ever consider moving up again!

#53 Bubu on 03.06.18 at 7:18 pm

Look at this guy trying to sell a house for the same price he bought in 2015 in Edmonton…. How can you pay $800k in Edmonton in a low end neighbourhood just because it is a new house? I guy posted a google map view and I won’t leave there for $500k, forget $800k.

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/why-wont-my-house-sell-honest-opinion-2175315/

I want to see next the hipsters who bought also skinny houses in Edmonton for 7-800k… Will they ever move from those houses? Aka, sell them?

#54 HoweStreet.com on 03.06.18 at 7:25 pm

Ross Kay on HoweStreet.com Radio:
The Myth of the Real Estate “Spring Season.”
Why is Toronto Real Estate Board delaying the release of their latest numbers ?

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/03/05/the-myth-of-the-real-estate-spring-season/

#55 Smoking Man on 03.06.18 at 7:26 pm

Cohen stepped down.

Tariffs are real. Get ready dogs. All hell is going to break lose in Canada.

After 8 years on here making amazing market calls most of you never unloaded your properties. Even with my track record.

Oh ya. Teachers trained you not to listen to drunks and people that can’t spell must be stupid.

FYI Musk hires on ability, degree not required. Perhaps his next project will be a plasma flyer.

#56 Robert B on 03.06.18 at 7:26 pm

Get ready for governments to raise taxes for the short fall that they will have from falling real estate transactions.

Land transfer taxes are a bust now. You wonder where did all that money go?

High Canadian corporate tax rates will hurt too against the ingenuity of the Trump tax cuts.
Our PM is worrying about gender neutrality and fails to address anything about get the economy back on track.

#57 gfd on 03.06.18 at 7:29 pm

#11 TRUMP on 03.06.18 at 5:30 pm
Did I hear CHEAP HOUSING………???
The time to make money is when there’s blood on the streets!!!
I see red on the horizon
$$$$$$$$$$!$!!!$$$$$$
—————————————————————–
Hope your vision’s 20/20, ’cause red means also

http://communist-party.ca/party-program

#58 Myra Andrews on 03.06.18 at 7:30 pm

#95 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.18 at 11:53 pm
@#56 Myra Andrews

Thanks for the link to a Real estate sales site.

WTH?

Are these Realtors so desperate for a sale they have to come here?

I am not a realtor and I am not Paul B. Paul B posts the daily numbers on a website and I got the numbers from there. http://vancouvercondo.info/

#59 Huge Bubble on 03.06.18 at 7:30 pm

This will take years to deflate based on history. Do not get excited to time the market by a downturn. You just might be rushing in to a false bottom. Any rush will increase the price, but don’t celebrate yet, because it will turn quickly taking you underwater. The downward movement in price will have several false bottoms until the bubble deflates in a few years or more.

#60 maxx on 03.06.18 at 7:31 pm

Were it not for the radiator, this would reek of the quality of pressed cornflakes!

#61 Trumpocalypse2018 on 03.06.18 at 7:32 pm

9 Days to the Ides of March !!!!!!!!!

Global catastrophe looming:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/03/06/japanese-volcano-spews-ash-thousands-of-feet-into-sky-grounding-flights-nearby/?utm_term=.571a7f9366f2

Canada’s real estate apocalypse now beginning.

False flags of hope and negotiation will give way to nukes with North Korea.

PREPARE.

#62 JettaFlair on 03.06.18 at 7:37 pm

There are a lot of listings in the areas I am following in the 604 that are trying to offload what appear to be recently purchased properties in the last 1-2 years. Some are barely going to make a profit assuming you don’t count reno’s or mortgages and other fees paid. This is at least in the last 3 months. Investors are getting spooked but I can only guess what level of panic they are in.

#63 Mother of All Crashes !!! on 03.06.18 at 7:38 pm

All the colleagues at work who were so smug about their multiple real-estate investments are suddenly grim. This is going to be one mother of a crash.

#64 Wallflower on 03.06.18 at 7:40 pm

#4 RentYVR on 03.06.18 at 5:13 pm
re “holding for 20+ years”
I am 57. Never known any peer to hang on to any bought residence in excess of 8 years. All GTA people.

#65 Nonplused on 03.06.18 at 7:41 pm

Wait, what? No dogs in the photo today? Perhaps superimpose one.

I find it a funny photo though

On the one hand it shows what can happen if you don’t know what you are doing. Whoever mounted this TV without the use of a stud finder must have a series of similar failures behind them yet they have no idea that maybe they should stop doing things until they figure out what they are doing wrong. So many parallels to finance. And life in general.

On the other hand it’s probably good that the TV is broken. There is nothing on but propaganda and the odd rigged sports game anyway.

#66 jess on 03.06.18 at 7:41 pm

Illegal immigration? Banks don’t even tackle slavery and trafficking
Prem Sikka

….enrolling banks and building societies to carry out checks for illegal immigrants… are somehow expected to trawl through 70m accounts to find illegal immigrants?

good luck with that!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/23/illegal-immigration-banks-slavery-trafficking-racial-profiling-privacy

=========
September 17, 2017 / 12:05 PM / 6 months ago
Global debt may be understated by $13 trillion: BIS

=============
Crapo’s bill would ease the capital and operational burden on smaller lenders, but also includes a number of provisions beneficial to all but the largest U.S. banks.
Most notably, the bill would raise the threshold at which banks are considered systemically risky and subject to stricter oversight to $250 billion from $50 billion.
It also exempts banks with less than $10 billion in assets from rules banning proprietary trading.
=========
“This may be the single most dangerous provision in the bill and it applies only to the biggest Wall Street banks.”Warren said the Senate bill contained a change to wording that would allow the biggest banks to pressure the Federal Reserve. The language in the bill now says “the Fed shall tailor the rules for the biggest banks”, instead of may.

“That one word change will allow the banks to sue the Fed if they don’t weaken the rules the way the banks want,” Warren said. “And that pressure on the Fed will lead to a systematic weakening of the rules for all the big banks.“This may be the single most dangerous provision in the bill and it applies only to the biggest Wall Street banks.”
====
https://bettermarkets.com/blog/another-big-bank-bailout-why-deregulate-big-banks-worth-50-250-billion

For example, if the U.S. did not bail out Deutsche Bank’s U.S. operations conducted by its U.S. subsidiary Taunus in 2008-2009, it would have failed and Germany would have had to bail out Deutsche Bank, putting German taxpayers on the hook. Instead, $354 billion in U.S. bailouts in 2008-2009 substituted U.S. taxpayers for German taxpayers.
==========

#67 Ray on 03.06.18 at 7:42 pm

Pres Trumps top advisor, Gary Cohn resigned. Futures are down almost 2% on the DJIA. Wall Street considered him as the only one with any financial credibility
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-dollar-rattled-after-gary-cohn-resigns-from-trump-white-house-2018-03-06

#68 Rational Optimist on 03.06.18 at 7:42 pm

4 RentYVR on 03.06.18 at 5:13 pm

“So what if you bought at what looks like the peak last year; if you’re like most people and you’re holding for 20-30 years the 1 year stat is just noise.”

Most people don’t live in a home for 20-30 years. The average Canadian owns about five houses in his lifetime: that would be maybe on average owning each for ten years (bought first time at 28, died five decades later).

Surveys show that something like a third or more people are moving sooner than they had expected. And the people more likely to have to move sooner are less likely to be able to recover if the value of their home is down: job loss and divorce are the main reasons. Retirees who have been in the market for decades are not likely the main victims of those.

Thousands of folks in southern Ontario who bought in the last year are underwater on their homes. If they know, I bet they care.

#69 Asterix1 on 03.06.18 at 7:43 pm

#1MF
How are lending conditions changing (due to OSFI B20 and interest rate changes) and what is the likely impact?

-Temporary blip then people will adjust and prices will march back up. It if goes too low it will be repealed. This is for the GTA, I couldn’t care less about the RE markets in other cities.
————————————————

People will adjust? Wrong, banks will be adjusting people!

Less cash to borrow, less cash to spend, less sales, lower sale prices. It’s heading south, not north.

#70 jess on 03.06.18 at 7:44 pm

quess it’s getting a little too stormy

CNN)President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser Gary Cohn is resigning, the White House announced on Tuesday.

#71 real estate on 03.06.18 at 7:45 pm

correction time. With that even with these loses the past 12 months real estate has crushed the TSX

btw, the TSX is down just under 5% ytd

#72 -=jwk=- on 03.06.18 at 7:45 pm

globe and mail Business section, above the fold leader (already on their website):

REAL ESTATE
Toronto home prices climb on heels of tougher mortgage rules
Home prices rose 4.2 per cent in February compared to January to an average of $767,818, marking the strongest month-over-month price gain since September.

@#4 rentYVR

if you’re like most people and you’re holding for 20-30 years the 1 year stat is just noise.

Most people don’t hold for 20-30 years. Average is something like 7 years. It’s not just noise if you have to pay 150,000 more than your neighbour. your 20-30 years is now 25-35 and you can never move, even if you want to. You are trapped.

That said, if you are thinking about buying in GTA – do it NOW. This hiccup will be over next month as we charge into spring. Think 2009 opportunity again. Don’t you wish you had bought then? Little breather, than off on a tear. property values in GTA/YVR are not tied to the local economy, they are tied to the Chinese economy.

#73 Pulp Faction on 03.06.18 at 7:51 pm

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/toronto-home-prices-climb-on-heels-of-tougher-mortgage-rules/article38216985/

#74 pathcontrolmonk on 03.06.18 at 7:58 pm

“If you think we’ll get cheap houses without hurt, think again.”

Putting off the “hurt” post Lehman is what got us here. Even prices were halved in YVR they still wouldn’t be “cheap”.

At this point, anything is preferable to letting foreign based, smurf / crowd funded narco flippers to destroy communities and livelihoods.

You have no idea what may be coming. – Garth

#75 ShawnG in TO on 03.06.18 at 7:58 pm

so Mr Garth, what’s your opinion of the teaser rate mortgages i hear so much of on the radio?

fun times … just like in the movie the big short, the first half

#76 toronto1 on 03.06.18 at 8:02 pm

Trumps tariffs are coming- he does not bluff

powerful negotiation tool for NAFTA

the loonie is going to get slaughtered- BoC will have no choice but to raise rates lockstep to keep inflation at bay.

housing is heading down- TREB is resorting to telling you 2016 numbers, but they had no problem last year yelling about the increases

big drops are yet to come watch out below

#77 Pete on 03.06.18 at 8:04 pm

Prices!! They haven’t moved enough to cause red streets. Chill people,,,take a vacation for a few months. The busiest time for RE is now to May and sales are happening. We need 4x more listings to start noticing the unwinding. Aint happening yet.

#78 Mark on 03.06.18 at 8:05 pm

“#73 Pulp Faction on 03.06.18 at 7:51 pm “

Sad what passes for journalism these days, eh?

#79 I believe everything on television on 03.06.18 at 8:11 pm

people who bought a year ago got whacked by banks and their faithful servants- politicians

In unison they all raised the ‘unproven risk’ flag,
and saluted it like brain dead zombies.
No one in any media whatsoever dared question the fake risk- employment suicide
its easier to grovel.
cut, thrust, pump, dump

#80 NoName on 03.06.18 at 8:12 pm

I’ve been researching this swearing and foul language thingy for some time now, it seams that what I call “industrial” language is expanding.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uD23xIcOl18

#81 TheSecretCode on 03.06.18 at 8:13 pm

Try and spot the trend here…you get the point?

Q: What impact is the Ontario Fair Housing Plan likely have?

A: BANKS

Q: How are lending conditions changing (due to OSFI B20 and interest rate changes) and what is the likely impact?

A: BANKS

Q: Is home affordability at a reasonable level today?

A: BANKS

Q: Why are so few potential buyers buying with the additional inventory now available?

A: BANKS

Q: What are the catalysts for upward home price movements?

A: BANKS

#82 Cdn Mom on 03.06.18 at 8:15 pm

#12 TurnerNation on 03.06.18 at 5:34 pm

I posted a few times to avoid rural Ontario property, that once Ontariowe goes BK they’ll cut rural services. Insurance for homes, businesses will be unavailable.
………………

Wrong.

I live in an unorganized township in northern Ontario, 15 minutes from the rural edge of a city. Zero fire response, zero 911 service, OPP will respond someday, ambulance a bit sooner. Insured, and 100% honest with insurer. No problems for us, or the 50 other homes out here, getting home insurance. And the insurance is no more expensive than the insurance was on our house in the city. That said, propane furnace, not burning wood.

#83 For those about to flop... on 03.06.18 at 8:16 pm

Hey Smartalox,Thinkpol had an article up about how most Vancouver houses sold below assessed value in the last 3 months.

I was going to link it for you but they took it down,they might Frankenstein it and bring it back to life.

https://thinkpol.ca/2018/03/06/vancouver-houses-sold-assessment-last-three-months/

Also this place on 33rd ave just came on the market.

Asking 1.25 and assessed for roughly the same,if it follows the trend of a lot of other recent sales in the neighborhood it will go for somewhere around 1.05/1.1 even though it is pretty much on the bottom rung in Vancouver.

Long way to go to get down to your 750k target ,but I will let you know if and when this is happening on a regular basis.

You’ll probably have to rent for at least another 2 years.

Peace,Flop…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/1596-e-33-avenue

#84 gfd on 03.06.18 at 8:20 pm

#22 Smartalox on 03.06.18 at 6:05 pm
. . . . . . and Cons. government will be born on ashes caused by Lib/NDP interventions.

#85 Listings are getting no action.. on 03.06.18 at 8:21 pm

Look at my hood of Don mills, greedy sellers still trying to get last spring prices…even a 1.55 million ground floor condo is listed… Lol….condo! Unbelievable how stupid these sellers and realtor clowns are…

They’re completely effed up in the head…. Gonna be an epic disaster unfolding…

#86 Sue on 03.06.18 at 8:21 pm

Not to change the subject, but djia futures down 371?
Beware the ides of march or did Gary quit? Anyone?

#87 Asterix1 on 03.06.18 at 8:22 pm

#4 RentYVR on 03.06.18 at 5:13 pm

I get (and share) your sentiment here Garth, but who really purchases a house with a 1 year time horizon. Like stocks and bonds, or perhaps even more so, houses are multi-year investments so focusing on 1 year or 2 year numbers is crazy. So what if you bought at what looks like the peak last year; if you’re like most people and you’re holding for 20-30 years the 1 year stat is just noise.
————————————————————

You need to remember that lots of people can’t afford the properties they purshased! So yes, in fact, 1 to 2 years numbers are extremely important as they are already sinking in debt and can’t afford a small raise in rates.

#88 Nonplused on 03.06.18 at 8:28 pm

I’ll handle the questions:

-What impact is the Ontario Fair Housing Plan likely have?

None. And who cares? The government of Ontario and all governments are like today’s picture, screwing a TV to a wall without knowing what they are doing and no stud finder.

-How are lending conditions changing (due to OSFI B20 and interest rate changes) and what is the likely impact?

Again no impact. People should have been leaving themselves some cushion on their own but they don’t know what they are doing.

-Is home affordability at a reasonable level today?

Nope. 4 x Income is the upper range of affordable.

-Why are so few potential buyers buying with the additional inventory now available?

Because they don’t have any money and need the price of the home to rise consistently to afford it.

-What are the catalysts for upward home price movements?

Inflation in wages, beyond the foolish $15 minimum wage (still not nearly enough to buy a house even in mighty Regina). To buy a house that costs $1 million, you have to make $1 million after tax over 25 years and cover all your other expenses. Who can do that? Who ever will? If you make that much money you are either a celebrity, CEO, or criminal. All other jobs that formerly paid that much are going to India, China, or AI. Well except government jobs of course.

End questions, back to spewing brain snot:

Bubbles are interesting things because they are so pervasive in recent (last 400 years) human history but I think we can define them this way:

“If you cannot afford the price of something unless it continues to appreciate (go up in price), it is a bubble.”

Bubbles are self-reinforcing loops where the increase in the price is what makes it affordable.

It applies to all things including stock prices. Say you buy Garth’s preferred shares in banks, expecting a 4% return, that’s fair. But if you are expecting a 7% return based on the share price going up, well now that is a bubble because the share price would have to near double over time. That can certainly happen if the company has good prospects, but should you pay in advance? Well, I guess that’s what the pricing mechanism is about but if the market is pricing a bond or a preferred at 4%, you should expect 4%, not more.

Now that the “bubble pop” is upon us, the Canadian economy is screwed. Sure, the Bow River will continue to flow through Calgary as before so nothing real will change, but a lot of math will. Sure, only people who have bought in the last year or so are supposedly affected, but that is false. If we take the often banted about figure that people move on average every 5 years, only 1/5th of the people are affected. But that’s already a lot. But because prices are set at the margin, the other 4/5ths of the population just lost just as much theoretical money. No more HELOCs for you.

Think about it folks. If you were sitting on $1,000,000 of real estate you probably just had your net worth cut by $50,000 or more. How long is it going to take you to work that off? Even if you make $150,000 a year, after taxes and other expenses that is a whole year of your life. No new car for you. No new house for the Audi dealer either.

I’ve looked at a lot of financial charts of all types before. When a correction comes it is always much faster than the rise that proceeded it. They look like Bre-X. Nice steady gains until somebody gets thrown out of a helicopter and Poof! Zero. Housing won’t go to zero because the “gold” is actually there, but the correction that is starting will be a lot faster than Garth is letting on. Brenda from yesterday, sell.

#89 I believe everything on television on 03.06.18 at 8:28 pm

#81 TheSecretCode on 03.06.18 at 8:13 pm
Try and spot the trend here…you get the point?

Q: What impact is the Ontario Fair Housing Plan likely have?

A: BANKS

Q: How are lending conditions changing (due to OSFI B20 and interest rate changes) and what is the likely impact?

A: BANKS

Q: Is home affordability at a reasonable level today?

A: BANKS

Q: Why are so few potential buyers buying with the additional inventory now available?

A: BANKS

Q: What are the catalysts for upward home price movements?

A: BANKS

—–
Jeremy Rudin is Public Enemy # 1
that’s obvious, but you won’t read it in any media, only here

#90 TheSecretCode on 03.06.18 at 8:29 pm

Re: #5 Righty Robert

Happening now in Vancouver/Richmond:

10XXX SEAWARD COURT Ironwood
Current Asking $1,588,000…$4,292,000 price drop -73.0%

11XXX BLUNDELL ROAD McLennan
Current Asking $2,3080,000…$2,300,000 Price Drop -49.2%

4XXX ALPHA DRIVE Brentwood Park
Current Asking $1,998,000…$982,000 Price Drop -33.0%

7XXX BROADWAY Montecito
Current Asking $1,699,000…$601,000 Price Drop -26.1%

4XXX RUTLAND ROAD Caulfeild
Current Asking $2,299,000…$600,000 Price Drop -20.7%

6XXX EAGLERIDGE DRIVE Eagleridge
Current Asking $2,385,000…$603,000 Price Drop -20.2%

3XXX W 1ST AVENUE Point Grey
Current Asking $4,588,000…1,111,000 Price Drop -19.5%

8XXX PASCO ROAD Howe Sound
Current Asking $3,989,898…898,902 Price Drop -18.4%

6XXX MARTYNIUK PLACE Woodwards Current Asking $1,798,000…$401,000 Price Drop -18.2%

6XXX HUMPHRIES PLACE Buckingham Heights Current Asking $4,500,000…$1,000,000 Price Drop -18.2%

#91 Wealth Simpleton on 03.06.18 at 8:29 pm

#65 Nonplused on 03.06.18 at 7:41 pm

I find it a funny photo though

On the one hand it shows what can happen if you don’t know what you are doing. Whoever mounted this TV without the use of a stud finder must have a series of similar failures behind them yet they have no idea that maybe they should stop doing things until they figure out what they are doing wrong. So many parallels to finance. And life in general.

************

I just use my knuckle on the one hand.
Bought one house.

#92 Chico on 03.06.18 at 8:31 pm

#16 Howard on 03.06.18 at 5:44 pm

#12 TurnerNation on 03.06.18 at 5:34 pm
I posted a few times to avoid rural Ontario property, that once Ontariowe goes BK they’ll cut rural services. Insurance for homes, businesses will be unavailable.

Calgary just announced the pre cursor to this…herding us into cities right?
A lefty 2nd world paradise.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/calgary/calgary-fire-department-10-minute-response-target-1.4563679

‘City council’s planning and urban development committee voted Monday to recommend a 10-minute response time for future communities on the city’s edges.”

————————————————-

Calgary could use a little “herding” into the city centre. It’s the most sprawled out wasteland of a city in the country. Building up rather out would be a good thing. Preserve the remaining farmland and countryside.

——————————————————

So your worried about Alberta not having enough farmland? Have you noticed how big the province is?

#93 Long-Time Lurker on 03.06.18 at 8:33 pm

#118 Jackaroo on 03.06.18 at 7:51 am
G’day Garth, I just came across this blog and wanted to let your mates know I have a similar blog: ” Going Down, Down Under”…

>You didn’t censor that Garth? Hee hee. Care to translate, Flop?

Anbang, a large Red Chinese insurer got bailed out by it’s government. Anbang bought up Starwood Hotels and the Waldorf-Astoria a few years ago. The red giant stumbles.

#94 akashic record on 03.06.18 at 8:35 pm

You have no idea what may be coming. – Garth

Banks created full worldwide crisis in 2008.

The medicine to heal the 2008 crisis creates an other crises in 2018. Yet to see the scope of the damage.

According to this pattern, financial genius bankers will create some more band-aid “to prevent imminent catastrophe”, putting the cost on the public tab, as usual.

What else could come, really?

#95 i,see,debt,people on 03.06.18 at 8:43 pm

gonna be a slaughter tomorrow! bring it on…buying opportunity ..NO NEED TO PANIC

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gary-cohn-resignation-drags-asia-pacific-stocks-lower-1520384427?tesla=y

#96 will on 03.06.18 at 8:46 pm

“You know things are wobbly when realtors have to reach back two years for a comparison.”

lol

#97 Nonplused on 03.06.18 at 8:46 pm

#91 Wealth Simpleton

There is more than one way to find a stud. The point I was trying to make is that you need to understand that you have to find the stud. A foundation without strength is no foundation at all. Whether hanging a TV or planing for retirement, if your strategy isn’t strong, it will fall apart.

#98 AGuyInVancouver on 03.06.18 at 8:48 pm

#42 Mark on 03.06.18 at 6:50 pm
“The fact is, prices have barely budged in BC. We could take an instant hit of 30% and anyone who bought 2016 or prior is still laughing.”

That’s not true at all. Prices have stagnated since 2013 in BC and the GTA. All you’ve seen from the Realtors in the years since have been numbers highly influenced by the substantially changed sales mix experienced in the post-2013 era..
_ _ _
For the love of God man, stop peddling that nonsense and embarrassing yourself.

#99 Myra Andrews on 03.06.18 at 8:49 pm

Stats for Greater Vancouver area from realtor PaulB, who I do not know.

March 6
New 246
Price Change 48
Sold 130
Inventory 8372

March 5
New 316
Price Change. 60
Sold 104
Inventory 8344

http://www.clivestevepaul.com

#100 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.06.18 at 8:51 pm

@#58 Myra Andrew

Calm down.
Wasnt calling YOU a realtor!
And I’m not psychic.
Just confused as to why you linked a Real Estate sales site to this blog comment section…

Your latest link makes more sense.

All good.
Now take a happy pill or smoke a soon to be legal joint.

#101 crossbordershopper on 03.06.18 at 8:54 pm

you cant give away a house in most cities in saskatchewan, like no buyers at any price. and the whole banking stress test makes it hard for most people since there ratio’s are all wacked due to truck financing.
like $150K is not a lot of money, and still not takers. regular houses. sure who wants to live there, well same for new brunswick, nova scotia, most of newfoundland, vast areas.
i dont know, i think its a scam for people to stay in Canada, why would anyone else stay here. cold, overtaxed ,over regulated.
go south young man, trump at least has his country best interest at heart, where Trudeau has no interest in anyone except himself

#102 Toronto Revenue on 03.06.18 at 8:54 pm

39% of Toronto’s revenue comes from property and land transfer taxes.

https://twitter.com/Silver_Watchdog/status/852716949331226624

#103 Dave on 03.06.18 at 8:57 pm

I’ve been a landlord since 2007 and I’ve never seen a stronger rental market then right now. I turned-over 2 units recently and I literally had to takedown the kijiji ads after about 5 or 6 hours because I was being bombarded with interest. I thought I priced the units fairly high…but I probably could have gone another 15-20% higher.

#104 TO downtown condo/townhomes on 03.06.18 at 9:00 pm

Too bad prices for condos and townhomes in Toronto still went up, esp in downtown area. Any thoughts on when they’ll come down? If ever?

#105 akashic record on 03.06.18 at 9:10 pm

One could argue that the central banks policy of stimulation the economy aka encouraging spending (remember Obama’s speech?) effectively creates addiction to debt in individuals.

Literally full-blown clinical addiction, similar to all other type of addictions.

Once someone makes that medical claim, followed by legal actions, the banking industry could find itself put on trial as the tobacco industry was.

This could pave the road to unprecedented debt forgiveness.

Other possibility is economic reset by the old recipe: world war.

Long on cash, multiple passports, extreme alertness and mobility. Historical instincts are kicking in.

#106 N on 03.06.18 at 9:23 pm

•Is home affordability at a reasonable level today?
– No
•Why are so few potential buyers buying with the additional inventory now available?
– They cannot afford it. Another 50% drop before homes become affordable for the higher income earners in the GTA.

#107 For those about to flop... on 03.06.18 at 9:25 pm

#93 Long-Time Lurker on 03.06.18 at 8:33 pm
#118 Jackaroo on 03.06.18 at 7:51 am
G’day Garth, I just came across this blog and wanted to let your mates know I have a similar blog: ” Going Down, Down Under”…

>You didn’t censor that Garth? Hee hee. Care to translate, Flop?

#118 Jackaroo on 03.06.18 at 7:51 am
G’day Garth, I just came across this blog and wanted to let your mates know I have a similar blog: ” Going Down, Down Under”. It’s pretty samey. My mascot’s a bitzer, realtors are ex-cons, finance lads are sheep shearers, and the weather’s extreme. We aren’t as culturally diverse as you, but we celebrate it in our music*, and Mel is banned from posting. We also keep a lid on the avos & toast crowd.

If any of you Nanookians need another place to hang with your bong, look us up. Some of the boys can be a bit saucy, but you won’t find us as dry as a dead dingos donger. Sheilas welcome too. No sheepshaggers.

///////////////////////

I’m out of practice, been nearly 20 years,but I’ll have a crack.

I’ll leave the title up to your imagination.

He’s got a dog that is mixed breed,bit of a mongrel.

Mel? I took that as Mel Gibson as he isn’t the most tolerant person.

Doesn’t want too many hipsters on his blog.

Some of the posters can post material that not even one would appreciate but at least they have fun and have a sense of humour.

Normally you would talk about a dead dingos penis when you were thirsty.Kind of hard without content or knowing this persons mental state

Women welcome.

Last one open to interpretation ,but I read , no New Zealanders.

P.S Jackeroo,if you are in Queensland give my parents a hug.

If you are in Tasmania,give my older brother a clip around the ear…

M43BC

Formerly M24TAS

#108 Bottoms_Up on 03.06.18 at 9:27 pm

#4 RentYVR on 03.06.18 at 5:13 pm
————————-
Sure, everything’s good until your lender asks for $150,000 in 4 years in order to renew the mortgage…

#109 Blacksheep on 03.06.18 at 9:29 pm

TheSecretCode # 90,

“Happening now in Vancouver/Richmond:

10XXX SEAWARD COURT Ironwood
Current Asking $1,588,000…$4,292,000 price drop -73.0%”

-Etcetera, etcetera…..
————————————-
This is much more respectful way (my opinion) to display market changes than actually linking to the owners tax assessment, a picture of their home, along with full address of the poor bastard trying to sell.

Actual, bought and sold prices would be even more insightful, but I realize the working stiff (including me) doesn’t have full access to the details and no realtor wants to hurt their own lively hood.

If someone questions the validity of any one of your samples, a quick call to their realtor will clarify the details. That and I’m sure there are plenty of realtors on this site that will jump at an opportunity to correct you.

Over all, a very good format…well done.

#110 Jack on 03.06.18 at 9:34 pm

Can someone please explain why low inventory levels can possibly create lower prices (London for example)? Last year it caused prices to skyrocket. Does supply and demand not factor into this equation? I read a recent article in Macleans that a subprime lender sees a lot of investors moving to buy in the London area to get away from the foreign buyers tax. Prices in London / St. Thomas back at peak except for the east end that’s up 20% from peak!!! Delayed reaction?

#111 Loonie Doctor on 03.06.18 at 9:43 pm

I tried using a stud finder once. Couldn’t figure it out. Kept beeping wildly every time I picked it up. I took it back to the store, but the lady there just smiled at me and said was working juussst fine.

#112 joblo on 03.06.18 at 9:49 pm

Pathetic Lieberals:

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/christie-blatchford-more-liberal-gaffes-uncovered-from-trudeaus-not-so-excellent-india-visit

Vote Sheer 2019 ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xJv80aqx70

#113 joblo on 03.06.18 at 10:04 pm

More from the clowns…. HELP!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkrscAG81Po

#114 Can't Fight (NDP) City Hall on 03.06.18 at 10:04 pm

This is funny:
“The fact is, prices have barely budged in BC. We could take an instant hit of 30% and anyone who bought 2016 or prior is still laughing.”

People who write this rubbish fail to understand one important thing: The Government wants to crash the market and also benefit from higher taxes. Those smuggies who imagine that these new measures won’t bite and brag about how untouchable BC is are simply staring down trouble because if these measures don’t work the Government WILL increase measures to ensure the desired effect is realized. Trust me. I know. I’m the person who is most responsible for the 15% tax. Don’t believe me, ask Tom Davidoff. We are going to CRUSH the market. We were largely just waiting for a huge amount of much needed new construction and foreigners were the best bet for this but NOW we pull the rug out from under the building industry speculators and their realtor carnival hawkers and invite the foreign investors to go home. Yep WELCOME TO VANCOUVER, (Expo 86 slogan) NOW GO HOME.

#115 Ret on 03.06.18 at 10:06 pm

Trudeau and Kathleen Wynne’s gender parity platforms are such a crock.

Consider CPP. Males pay the same premiums as females but males live roughly four years less. Obviously males are paying too much in premiums or benefits being paid to females are too generous.

There are no premiums for OAS, but my wife gets the same cheque each month that I do even though on average she will live 3-4 years longer.

I have to wonder how many smaller private employee pension plans are also discriminatory?

It’s my fault that I was born a male? It’s time for the Justin Trudeau to walk the talk and address this inequality issue with respect to government pension programs.

#116 Old Ron the Realtor on 03.06.18 at 10:07 pm

TREB Average price up 4.3% from January

TREB Sales up 29% from January

#117 Mark on 03.06.18 at 10:20 pm

“Can someone please explain why low inventory levels can possibly create lower prices (London for example)?”

Houses aren’t really something that can be ‘inventoried’ in the sense that you have houses sitting on the shelf waiting to be consumed. A house is built, and it becomes part of the overall housing stock. So calling listing volumes “inventory” is really inaccurate since nearly all listings involve an individual who will have to go out and buy (or rent) replacement housing.

In the initial stages of prices declining, there is often somewhat of a state of disbelief as Realtors counsel their clients that the prices they see in the ‘headlines’ are not applicable to their individual property. A common “rookie” RE mistake over the past few years has been to take the price of one’s individual house and multiply it by increases to the average selling price without realizing that the average selling price has only ‘risen’ due to adjustments to the sales mix. Currently comparables are little changed from 2013 levels, and there is somewhat of a state of disbelief amongst sellers who read all sorts of headlines of vigorous price increases in the post-2013 peak era, but are basically laughed at by their Realtor if they try and price their property based on such amateur “calculation”.

In a nutshell, this is how we get falling prices and falling ‘inventory’. Disbelief of falling prices. On the other hand, if prices were legitimately rising on individual identical properties, you’d likely see a lot of people listing into such in order to lock in their gains. The fact that we don’t see such is prima facie evidence that the “gains” as claimed by the Realtors by way of increases to the average selling price were not applicable to individual identical properties, but were only the artifact of a severe change in the overall sales mix induced by a slowing RE market, tightening credit (pricing out first time buyers), and an onslaught of brand new luxury supply.

#118 tccontrarian on 03.06.18 at 10:23 pm

More ‘proof’ that a major recession is on the horizon:

“The rate of women becoming pregnant begins to fall several months before the start of a recession, research from US academics suggests.”

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43195765

TCC

#119 Karma on 03.06.18 at 10:28 pm

#7 waiting on the westcoast on 03.06.18 at 5:21 pm
“With so many head fakes over the past decade, it seems the next few years may finally be a sad reckoning. I know many people in YVR/LM who have fully bought into the typical arguments why RE cannot go down. They are going to be in for a shock…

Here in Victoria, my landlord, after offering me to purchase at 1.39M said he was going to put the house on the market. He has now decided to postpone till August. Assessed at just over 1.2M, locals have told me that it should be priced at 1M…

Finally, my friends who works with a development company has now had 4 foreign buyers (out of 11 total) have walked away from deposits on their condos pre-sales. My buddies are asking if he thinks the locals (they bought the other 120+ units) might start balking. He says not yet but they are watching….”

Can you provide a link to the development?

#120 OttawaMike on 03.06.18 at 10:28 pm

Ottawa has low inventory and higher prices.
Forgot to mention that in today’s post.

#121 OttawaMike on 03.06.18 at 10:30 pm

https://www.oreb.ca/newsroom/wanted-ottawa-homes-for-sale/

#122 ANON on 03.06.18 at 10:30 pm

If you think we’ll get cheap houses without hurt, think again.

Cheap (poverty) always goes hand in hand with hurt. Deep, fast cheap, well, probably goes with a lot of deep, fast hurt. At least in my experience. But I’m sure it is different here, and, if it’s not, there’s always some dude, some *ism, or some group of humans, reptiles, or even aliens who are responsible.

#123 Buddy on 03.06.18 at 10:30 pm

#3
Hey Buddy,
just a FYI but assessed value has very little to do with actual value.
Example last year my place was assessed for a fair bit under $600k, maybe 550 or so.
I sold for 950 at the end of May 2017, today comparables are about 870.
Oh a this was in Toronto proper.
###########################
Yes, captain obvious, but in a down market the Assessed Value give’s the buyer a very good indication of where the property is at. What you’ve proven is that your “place” would of been worth less this year than what you it sold for last year. If your buyer would of known the assessed value of your property, they might of given it some thought before closing at $950k.

Also, multi-million $ listed properties are not selling. Assessed values, especially in a down market, would assist a buyer in making a better decision, in Toronto proper or not.

#124 Smoking Man on 03.06.18 at 10:37 pm

#95 i,see,debt,people on 03.06.18 at 8:43 pm
gonna be a slaughter tomorrow! bring it on…buying opportunity ..NO NEED TO PANIC

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gary-cohn-resignation-drags-asia-pacific-stocks-lower-1520384427?tesla=y
……

Just watch what happens to CAD…..Get out of the way.

Dr rognosticating agnostic abomination
PhD Herdonomics

#125 MF on 03.06.18 at 10:39 pm

#30 TheDood on 03.06.18 at 6:29 pm

“How is this a temporary blip and exactly how are people going to adjust? Prices are on an irreversible down slide. The rug has been pulled and there is no safe landing for any RE market in Canada, especially GTA and YVR.”

-I wish you were right..but I don’t think you are. RE is still seen as the best investment over the years. I’m sorry to say but most people don’t trust the stock market, and find it too confusing/overwhelming. They will dabble here and there with a few thousand, lose it all and complain the market is rigged, and they are right..it is. These people would never “invest” as much into stocks/balanced portfolio as they would with a down payment into their home/RE investment. Lots of people just waiting to jump back in if prices fall too much. Just read the comments on here and you will see it. Moreso as rents continue to rise higher than the ridiculous levels they are already at. Might as well pay something down = everyone’s logic.

#69 Asterix1 on 03.06.18 at 7:43 pm

“People will adjust? Wrong, banks will be adjusting people!”

-Yeah right. They are in the business of lending. Now I hope interest rates “normalize” -whatever that means now- but I think rates are actually going to rise at a glacial pace and then stop. Too much debt.

MF

#126 Lifexprt on 03.06.18 at 10:39 pm

Wrong.

I live in an unorganized township in northern Ontario, 15 minutes from the rural edge of a city. Zero fire response, zero 911 service, OPP will respond someday, ambulance a bit sooner. Insured, and 100% honest with insurer. No problems for us, or the 50 other homes out here, getting home insurance. And the insurance is no more expensive than the insurance was on our house in the city. That said, propane furnace, not burning wood.
————————————————————–

Largely incorrect, insurers rate a property such as yours as “unprotected” resulting in an up to 100 % surcharge. Should it be located outside the range of even a volunteer manned fire station the number of insurers willing to underwrite such risk decreases drastically, causing further rate increases.

Signed,

Broker with many various “special interest” properties.

#127 Reynolds531 on 03.06.18 at 10:42 pm

Just an anicdote but a couple of streets over last week….in London.

Sixty year old ranch, best neighborhood in London for blue collar houses. Listed for $380 sold for $420 in two days. With the 1970s decor.

Spill over foreign investment? Stupid buyer? Either way had me looking at rentals.

#128 For those about to flop... on 03.06.18 at 10:43 pm

Recent Sale Report.

Still a bit of juice in the market.

This ugly duckling just sold

2845 w 10th ave,Vancouver.

Asking 2.48

Just sold for 2.5

Second sale for the realtor in a week…

M43BC

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/2845-w-10th-avenue

#129 LivinLarge on 03.06.18 at 10:53 pm

No worries. Just ride it out for 6-7 years and the cycle will start again for another 20 year run. If you don’t have 40% equity right now then, sorry, you pooched.

No one is making anything for a while so just hunker down and live with what you have even if it is a rental.

#130 MF on 03.06.18 at 10:56 pm

#104 TO downtown condo/townhomes on 03.06.18 at 9:00 pm

Downtown condos are not going to go down. If they happen to be down for a while, they will rebound up since demand is so strong. The city is booming. OSFI, interest rates, debt cannot change that.

If you want to buy one, and can afford it, then I suggest you buy it. Rents are at prohibitive levels, with the benefit of savings/investments being lost (unless you are making tons of money).

MF

#131 LivinLarge on 03.06.18 at 10:59 pm

Jack, it’s not an open market. Prices set by sellers and inventory set by sellers. So when there ain’t no sellers there ain’t no price inflation.

Sellers have to buy somewhere else so if they don’t want to move then that’s it for inventory and prices. Low inventory and inflated prices only works if every transaction was like buying a used car and it isn’t. That only works for the first time buyer and last time seller.

#132 Jthecpa on 03.06.18 at 11:00 pm

This is addressed to mark
I generally agree with your outlook and even on your approximate dates on the peak. Maybe 2015 plus a blow off period Houses have been getting bigger and more expensive to construct generally for decades. This on its own would provide an average price increase over gdp
If I were a gambling man. I’d say we’re going to s e a true value reduction of 50 percent. Mostly in the form of depreciated buying power and prices reverting back to the SFD 400k mark for gta suburbs like Newmarket and Bradford. 250-300 in Tottenham and Beeton. Painful stuff and shocking for most

#133 Stock Futures on 03.06.18 at 11:00 pm

This Trump chap is flat out nuts

bye bye Gary Cohn. Look for an ugly red day tomorrow. SPY may want to re-test 258, if she can’t hold 266..in the short term

make the volatility your friend

#134 cowboy on 03.06.18 at 11:05 pm

#12 That Calgary outward spread is on “farmland” you couldn’t grow hay on. It’s best use would be residential or commercial. We are in the Foothills at 3500 ft ASL & considered semi-arid. Let’s see you farm something on thin soil & scrub bush. The better farmland is still farmed around here. That’s SE, E & NE of the City. The rest is cattle country S, SW, W & NW.

#135 Smartalox on 03.06.18 at 11:26 pm

Comrade Horgan drives anther stake through Rob Rennie’s heart…

http://www.news1130.com/2018/03/06/province-scraps-home-partnership-program/

#136 yorkville renter on 03.06.18 at 11:27 pm

So… owning a cottage means you’re a speculator?

Dude, get a grip… you’ve lost it.

#137 Hamitrash on 03.06.18 at 11:27 pm

#10 TEMPLE on 03.06.18 at 5:30 pm

“It’s a speculation tax, and we are not speculators,” a 72-year-old retiree from Ontario who owns a condo told the CBC. “We’ve lived here for 12 years.” Now she has to cough up $9,400 a year – or sell.

Except, they are speculators. If they live in BC, then they don’t get taxed. Except, they are probably paying Ontario taxes. Why? Because they are cheaper. It’s a dirty strategy and it is helping to price out people who actually live here year round, who pay taxes here, and who are tired of having to compete for property against rich “investors” playing house from other provinces. Not an ounce of sympathy for these people who “live here”.”

LOL, yes let these BC poverty pigs wallow in their own mudhole. Cue Groucho Marx, “I would not want to be a member of any club that would have me as a member”

#138 Doug t on 03.06.18 at 11:32 pm

Let’s talk about the abuses by the CRA in this country – if your rich don’t worry – if not worry

RATM

#139 For those about to flop... on 03.06.18 at 11:39 pm

Pink Snow falling in Richmond.

Featured these guys before as they have been trying to get their money back since December 2016.

They are into it 1.85 and just reduced it to 1.48 to chum the waters…

M43BC

3140 Springfield Drive, Richmond paid 1.85 April 2016 ass 177 asking 1.48

Dec 21:$2,280,000
Feb 20: $1,990,000
Change: – 290000.00 -13%%.

3140 Springfield Drive, Richmond

Dec 20:$1,980,000
Mar 5: $1,488,000
Change: – 492000.00 -25%

https://www.zolo.ca/richmond-real-estate/3140-springfield-drive

https://evaluebc.bcassessment.ca/Property.aspx?_oa=QTAwMDA1WFIxSA==

#140 Sunnyside on 03.07.18 at 12:00 am

Smoking Man #55

“Cohen stepped down.
Tariffs are real. Get ready dogs. All hell is going to break lose in Canada.”

No. Republican party revolt. They won’t stand for the kind of tariffs being suggested.

#141 Rargary on 03.07.18 at 12:13 am

Rargary can’t go down much more… we just barely trying to climb out of our 2015 mini recession with mouse prices

#142 Smoking Man on 03.07.18 at 12:24 am

Made another amazing discovery. Horror movies anit scary when your chugging 18 yr old scotch. they become comedies and you can’t stop laughing.

Next flick up. T2 negotiates Nafta.

Atleased I’m in a place were you can buy a bottle of Glenfideck for 27 bucks.

#143 Stock Picker on 03.07.18 at 12:35 am

Like or not RBC points a finger directly at foreign buyers.

https://financialpostcom.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/0306mckay.jpg

And a WOW from BC Dippers….the foreign tax on homes sweeps in to not only tax second homes of Albwrtans but also captures tax from locals second homes within BC. The tax will apply on all homes but an incomplete credit system will grab thousands of unclaimable extra tax . A total cash grab that wasn’t uncovered until after the tax law was passed. Read the Vaugh Almer Vancouver Sun article today.

#144 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.18 at 12:36 am

@#116 Old Ron the Record
“Treb Up Up Up! from January”
********

What year….

#145 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.18 at 12:44 am

@#99 Myna Andrews
“New 246
Price Change 48
Sold 130
Inventory 8372
+++++++
paulB ( first name basis?)
New 246 ( New Listings? Or relistings at a “new price”)
Price Change 48 ( $48k? 48 prices up? 48 Down?)
Sold 130 ( Sold for more than listing? Less? Days on market?)
Inventory 8372 ( up from last month? Down?)

The Flopster rocks
You dont.

#146 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.18 at 12:46 am

@#111 Loonie doc
‘I tried using a stud finder once. Couldn’t figure it out”
++++++
Well, as the old saying goes, ” It takes a stud to build a house….”
Go ask a carpenter.

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.18 at 12:51 am

@#95 i see debt people

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gary-cohn-resignation-drags-asia-pacific-stocks-lower-1520384427?tesla=y

++++++

yep.
The Trump Presidency will end with a whimper, not a bang.

What a shit show.
The Washignton and New York establishment are abandoning him in droves.

Would the last employee to leave the White House please turn out the lights……

Who thought the election of a President could be considered a Black Swan Event??????

#148 Smoking Man on 03.07.18 at 1:13 am

Gender stuff.

https://youtu.be/gGpZSefYvwM

Just saying if I could grow a set Milkers
Spend all day to understand the mystery of the thing that lurks down there I would do it.

Gonzo writing is on a come back.

#149 jane24 on 03.07.18 at 1:28 am

That TV peeling down the wallpaper and particleboard would raise the value of any house in Vancouver. The braindead people there would see it as trendy post-modern artwork.
______________________________
Thank you Howard Number 9 as I also had no idea what it was and did indeed think it was a modern art installation strangely in soemone’s home. I couldn’t figure out that the brown crumbly stuff was. I had forgotten about Canadian particle board.
I will think of this next time I am swearing with the drill and masonry bit trying to hang a photo on my brick and solid plaster walls. At least Canadian construction means it is easy to slightly change were you have hung said photo. With all the hanging trauma here you just live with it!

Garth this is the best comments section ever. I have read them all twice. previous busts were slow to gather speed from start to full panic. You could gather a few fools on the way down. With the internet and social media it will be a lot faster this time. Yes a lot of pain but then ‘ a fool and her money are indeed soon parted’. Always have been, always will be.

Going onto to Macleans now to read about thees Richmond Hill stats.

#150 Tony on 03.07.18 at 1:58 am

It’s good to see the speculator tax hit Victoria for the delusional people who still claim they aren’t speculators. Hopefully the tax will be raised to 5 percent very soon.

#151 Dolce Vita on 03.07.18 at 2:05 am

The Largest RE Asset Devaluation in Canadian History has begun. As in revert to prices from a decade ago.

The resale RE devaluations reported out of 416, 905 are shocking but I believe, they are just the beginning. 40% to 50% by year end? Laugh all you will, but we’re a third to half way there.

And out of YVR, what with today’s post by #90 TheSecretCode, only 1 word for those resale RE devaluations:

Crash.

Actually, no. More like:

Catastrophic.

What all this means is the Banks are probably planning how (or have already planned) to mitigate unsecured RE Asset drops on their Balance Sheets.

Expect to see anyone with loans associated with unsecured mortgages, or probably anything to do with RE, get squeezed financially one way or the other by the previous [email protected]

The Banks have been creative when it comes to giving out cheap money and making a handsome profit. It will be interesting to see that creativity applied to getting their money back without taking a hit on their Balance Sheets.

RE devaluations of this magnitude will be devastating to the Cdn. economy and not only to the FIRE GDP sector.

I imagine the Banks will report about that soon enough…well except in YVR where you see Realty logos & Home Insurance helicopters dancing over Weather Maps. Because, it’s all good there.

#152 Pulp Faction on 03.07.18 at 2:05 am

http://business.financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-home-sales-plummet-almost-35-in-february-as-new-mortgage-rules-bite

#153 Tony on 03.07.18 at 2:18 am

Re: #86 Sue on 03.06.18 at 8:21 pm

Tariffs are a good thing. This is the smartest move Trump has made yet. Why America ever got rid of tariffs in the first place I’ll never know why? I don’t like Trump but in his place I would have done the same thing long ago when he was first elected.

#154 Mark on 03.07.18 at 2:26 am

“-Is home affordability at a reasonable level today?
Nope. 4 x Income is the upper range of affordable.”

That’s a very good answer. It has been said that a house takes 3-4 human years of labour to construct. Well over half the cost of constructing a contemporary house is in labour, and a single person working full time in construction could, in a year or two, build a house. The other 2-3 human years would be for purchased supplies and the land.

So pricing at more than 3-4X income, for a brand new house, is effectively ascribing excess value to the entity that has constructed or sold the house to the buyer.

Even 3-4X income might be a bit of an exaggeration due to the fact that most people do not buy a brand new house, but rather buy one which has been depleted 20-30%, if not more, in its service life simply due to its age.

Financing an overpriced asset, as most people do, adds further insult to injury. Investors in bonds such as mortgages expect a real return of 2-3% per year, which is why mortgages tend to be 200-300bp above that of equivalent-term GoC debt historically (which tends to yield a ~1% real return). Over a typical 30 year amortization, not only is a person overpaying dramatically for the house up-front, but they’re paying financing charges on overpriced house. So they might actually end up buying 2-3 overpriced houses, or 7-8 normal priced houses by the time they’re done in their series of payments.

To pay for 7-8 houses, to live in and occupy one, that’s an absolutely enormous strain on family finances. That’s being forced to finance all your car purchases because you can’t pull the cash out of your back pocket. That’s renting water heaters instead of ownership. It all adds up to financial disaster for the families who overpaid. The lucky ones will go bankrupt quickly, resolve their debts within a year as a first time bankrupt, and move on with a rather expensive ‘education’. The unlucky ones will wake up at 55, after decades of making mortgage payments, with little to nothing paid into equity, with a worn-out asset in severe need of repairs, empty TFSA/RRSPs, and kids without college funds.

#155 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.07.18 at 3:10 am

#114 Can’t Fight (NDP) City Hall on 03.06.18 at 10:04 pm
This is funny:
“The fact is, prices have barely budged in BC. We could take an instant hit of 30% and anyone who bought 2016 or prior is still laughing.”

People who write this rubbish fail to understand one important thing: The Government wants to crash the market and also benefit from higher taxes. Those smuggies who imagine that these new measures won’t bite and brag about how untouchable BC is are simply staring down trouble because if these measures don’t work the Government WILL increase measures to ensure the desired effect is realized. Trust me. I know. I’m the person who is most responsible for the 15% tax. Don’t believe me, ask Tom Davidoff. We are going to CRUSH the market. We were largely just waiting for a huge amount of much needed new construction and foreigners were the best bet for this but NOW we pull the rug out from under the building industry speculators and their realtor carnival hawkers and invite the foreign investors to go home. Yep WELCOME TO VANCOUVER, (Expo 86 slogan) NOW GO HOME.
====================================

I’m 100% behind this!
CRUSH the criminals who carpetbagged our province.
Send them packing!

#156 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.07.18 at 3:13 am

And while you are at it, Kill the CMHC. The Governments little market manipulation machine.

And The Conservative party…. I will never forget the emergency interest rates that pumped up our real estate.
You guys have stolen a dozen good years from young peoples lives.
Bastards!

#157 Disgruntled Condo Owner on 03.07.18 at 3:19 am

#1 MF “I couldn’t care less about the RE markets in other cities.”

Finally somebody who actually uses the expression correctly. I thought “I could care less” had completely obliterated the grammatically correct original version. Now back to your regularly scheduled real estate blog :D

#158 Stan Brooks on 03.07.18 at 4:28 am

Too quick to dismiss Trump’s tariffs.

Wishful thinking, we are so good at it.

It is a go with Gary Cohn resigning from the white house in disagreement.

Another roller coaster day for the loonie coming.

#159 Midnights on 03.07.18 at 6:30 am

March 6, 2018 | Home Prices Sink, Sales Plunge in Toronto

https://www.howestreet.com/2018/03/06/home-prices-sink-sales-plunge-in-toronto/

#160 TorontoBull on 03.07.18 at 6:36 am

Garth,
It may be worthwhile to write an article about the impact of lower sales on the City of Toronto budget. They expect 800 million in revenue. Imagine what a 20% drop will do to revenues and the upcoming political storm and municipal.election

#161 maxx on 03.07.18 at 6:54 am

#10 TEMPLE on 03.06.18 at 5:30 pm

““It’s a speculation tax, and we are not speculators,” a 72-year-old retiree from Ontario who owns a condo told the CBC. “We’ve lived here for 12 years.” Now she has to cough up $9,400 a year – or sell.

Except, they are speculators. If they live in BC, then they don’t get taxed. Except, they are probably paying Ontario taxes. Why? Because they are cheaper. It’s a dirty strategy and it is helping to price out people who actually live here year round, who pay taxes here, and who are tired of having to compete for property against rich “investors” playing house from other provinces. Not an ounce of sympathy for these people who “live here”.”

Agree unequivocally. If she is “not a speculator” (cough) and has “lived here for 12 years” (so what), then she needs to PROVE IT. At least 183 days a year…..or fork it over. Either in BC or, Ontario.

When economic distortions get to the point where full-time residents and professional couples cannot buy into a market, something is wrong and granny can pony up the full nut on her 500K vacation condo.

I’m all for free markets and globalization, but at a speed which allows society at large to adapt at a decent pace. A great speed regulator is a luxury tax.

Granny is a leading-edge boomer and has enjoyed the cream of peak boomer advantage. That cohort moved through life like a plague of locusts, latching onto wealth and bargain re like low-hanging fruit. She likely owns a gem in Ontario which was obtained for pennies on the dollar.

I’m a boomer and have been very fortunate as well.

So prove it granny, enough with the histrionics.

Pay up.

One of the ugliest posts printed here in a long time. I am disappointed and regretful to publish it. The politics of division is poisoning us. – Garth

#162 maxx on 03.07.18 at 7:00 am

#17 Zapstrap on 03.06.18 at 5:47 pm

“#9 Howard on 03.06.18 at 5:28 pm
That TV peeling down the wallpaper and particleboard would raise the value of any house in Vancouver. The braindead people there would see it as trendy post-modern artwork.

Yeah maybe … but … out here you just might expose some mould. Or lead paint … or …”

…..asbestos mixed into plaster.

#163 Entropreneurial Spirits on 03.07.18 at 7:13 am

#101 crossbordershopper on 03.06.18 at 8:54 pm
…..
go south young man, trump at least has his country best interest at heart, where Trudeau has no interest in anyone except himself
*************

“Any jackass can kick down a barn but it takes a good carpenter to build one.” Sam Rayburn (1953)

 “The fundamental business of the country, that is the production and distribution of commodities, is on a sound and prosperous basis.” Herbert Hoover (1929)

“Disorder in the house 
It’s a fate worse than fame 
Even the Lhasa Apso seems to be ashamed” Zevon – rip

Zevon & Bruce!

https://youtu.be/ACSeVC6umzg

#164 Wealth Simpleton on 03.07.18 at 7:32 am

#97 Nonplused on 03.06.18 at 8:46 pm
#91 Wealth Simpleton

There is more than one way to find a stud. The point I was trying to make is that you need to understand that you have to find the stud. A foundation without strength is no foundation at all. Whether hanging a TV or planing for retirement, if your strategy isn’t strong, it will fall apart.
************

Economy, in all things.

#165 Victor V on 03.07.18 at 7:36 am

Terence Corcoran: Why President Trump is on the right side of the steel trade war

http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-why-president-trump-is-on-the-right-side-of-the-steel-trade-war

#166 NoName on 03.07.18 at 7:41 am

Yesterday I learned that tramponomics will cripple us and deplorable much more than I originally thought.
Walking away from top was major mistak. It will have an exact opposite effect of what was originally thought…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership

Yesterday on a way to work I was listening dude feom carlal grup being interviewed here is what he have to say abut flow of funds to em markets.

DUBNER: And you’ve pointed out that America leads the way in private equity, whereas we’ve lost the leadership in some other industries. Why do you think that’s the case?

RUBENSTEIN: Private equity first started in a different view then than buyouts. Private equity really started as a venture capital in the early to mid 60’s, and then another form of private equity called buyouts grew in the late 60’s early 70’s. And they started in the United States. And because they were public pension funds here, which had been the biggest source of capital, it probably became an industry that took off for the United States, and there was so much local money for it. Today 83 percent of all private equity dollars invested in the world every year are still invested in basically Western Europe and the United States. So it’s still a business dominated by Western Europe and United States. Now, 55 percent or so of the global economy, depending how you measure G.D.P. or purchase price parity, but let’s say 55 percent as measured by purchase price parity of the world G.D.P. is in the emerging market so-called. So if only 17 percent of the dollars invested in private equity are now going into the part of economy’s 55 percent, that will probably catch up at some point. So the emerging markets will get more and more money from private equity firms in the future. But today, the United States still dominates the business. And I’d say of the 10 greatest known venture firms in the world, and the 10 largest private equity firms in the world, they’re all based in the United States.

Full interview with David Rubenstein, an hour and half long.

http://freakonomics.com/podcast/david-rubenstein/

#167 dharma bum on 03.07.18 at 7:43 am

#38 Watch Minnie

“I took Thursday and Friday off to extend my weekend.”
——————————————————————–

I hear ya bro. I took off 2018 to extend mine! Pow days are awesome!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m57kbx_CGEw

#168 Rooster on 03.07.18 at 7:45 am

#155 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.07.18 at 3:13 am

And while you are at it, Kill the CMHC. The Governments little market manipulation machine.
And The Conservative party…. I will never forget the emergency interest rates that pumped up our real estate. You guys have stolen a dozen good years from young peoples lives.
Bastards!

**********
Without the CMHC, mortgage rates for many first-time home buyers will be in the teens. Home ownership is an essential element of stable communities. Kill the head of the CMHC (figuratively), amend the rules, and carry on. Agree with the last statement.

#169 dharma bum on 03.07.18 at 7:50 am

Today’s photo is symbolically indicative of the average Canadian’s knowledge of how to invest in the real estate market.

Borrow BIG, buy SKY HIGH. Then sit back and believe that you will become rich.

Oooops.

#170 Stan Brooks on 03.07.18 at 7:50 am

And some more wishful thinking, economic propaganda/or just outright incompetence, the choice is yours:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-dollar-forecast-overcome-trade-111839246.html

Thesis:
Loonie will strengthen due to commodities strengthening and USD weakness, also due to strong economy/growth?

Evidence:

1. BoC will raise rates max one more time.
The Fed will raise rates much more agressively.

2. US is implementing tariffs on steel and aluminum.
We do not export ore.

3. Our oil is dirty/tar sands oil that actually declines in value despite rise of other oil, that we actually import. Bad for balance of trade.

4. All the ‘growth’, economy firing on all cylinders etc.. nonsense/bs is due to debt, our current account balance per capita is the the worst in the world in addition to house hold debt per capita.

Indication of economy in collapse, not a healthy one.

5. Housing market, staggering 20 % of the economy is in free fall,
catastrophic as per:
#150 Dolce Vita on 03.07.18 at 2:05 am,
I agree)

, there is at least that much more in related services – financial and other derivative services.

Time to stop lying and face the reality/the music.

#171 NoName on 03.07.18 at 8:07 am

Walking away from top, shiould read too.

#172 Silver Solution™ on 03.07.18 at 8:12 am

#126 Lifexprt on 03.06.18 at 10:39 pm
Wrong.
No problems for us, or the 50 other homes out here, getting home insurance. And the insurance is no more expensive than the insurance was on our house in the city. That said, propane furnace, not burning wood.
————————————————————–
Largely incorrect, insurers rate a property such as yours as “unprotected” resulting in an up to 100 % surcharge. Should it be located outside the range of even a volunteer manned fire station the number of insurers willing to underwrite such risk decreases drastically, causing further rate increases.
Signed,
Broker with many various “special interest” properties.
***********

Rural homeowner with a woodstove, 10 miles from a volunteer fire station. Never had to measure their response time, but they are pretty quick with the bacon and egg breakfasts. Annual home insurance is 0.37% of assessed value. Not sure about the contents coverage, but gold doesn’t burn. Am I paying too much?

#173 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.18 at 8:12 am

@#134 Smartalox
“Comrade Horgan drives anther stake through Rob Rennie’s heart…’
++++++

Bob Rennie(Realtor of the Year) doesnt have a heart.

As for the Liberals blatant pandering to the Real Estate sales industry with that interest free home ownership loan program……fail.
The NDP have just removed another dreadful “incentive” for people with no money to buy.

#174 Steven Rowlandson on 03.07.18 at 8:20 am

“The rubble starts to emerge after politicians carpet-bombed the housing market. ”

What carpet bombing? Jobs, sales numbers? Certainly not prices which are so hyper inflated that even God couldn’t afford to live on Earth. Too many Canadians don’t know what the terms living wages and affordable housing means and most of them don’t want to know. They just want their tax free profits on their homes and cheap part time skilled labour for their businesses and to hell with the future of the country and its founding people. This will end badly for the country.

#175 Steven Rowlandson on 03.07.18 at 8:30 am

Re#88 3x one income is the upper limit. Less than that is fine and a 25% down payment is generally required as part of the traditional 3 years pay rule which was devised long ago for the protection of both the working man and the financial system.
Morton Schulman explained it to me in his book anyone can become a millionaire.

#176 Tbone on 03.07.18 at 8:35 am

Just watched glenngarry glen ross again , for a bit yesterday .
You want to move some real estate …. give Roma a call , lol.
Want to motivate the team … Baldwin to the rescue !
I like his name .

Check out Baldwin scene on you tube in this movie .

#177 Ian on 03.07.18 at 9:22 am

US Treasury bond auction next Monday. Non-competitive bids end noon EST, competitive ends 1pm.

Who wants these bonds?! Nooooobody!

#178 paulo on 03.07.18 at 9:34 am

well garth, after the EU slaps duties on HD hogs there might be a surplus,you may be able to score a real deal on a new ride. that is about the only good thing coming out of trumps proposed trade war.

#179 NoName on 03.07.18 at 9:34 am

#118 tccontrarian on 03.06.18 at 10:23 pm

More ‘proof’ that a major recession is on the horizon:

“The rate of women becoming pregnant begins to fall several months before the start of a recession, research from US academics suggests.”

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-43195765

TCC

Read my comments and click on links, you just might get ahead of kurve.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2018/02/26/debtville/#comment-577475

#180 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.07.18 at 9:42 am

#101…exactly what I’ve been yakking up for years…..if your young and eligable …get out of Canada or literally lose a lifetime of opportunity if you stay even one full term of the Trudeau Liberals. Think about it…..$150 Grand a year in Dallas vs unemployment ( or as Mayor Moonbeam bragged ” the lowest paid tech workers in North America”) ….. With low low Texas taxes and low overall cost of living ( a mansion for $350 K) you’d be set for life and likely have six figure savings on top of a new Camaro convertible ( for a third what it costs in Canada) . Your life would have started, your career on the ups, a family on the go…..or Trudeau’s dribbling nonsense for another term…..are you crazy? Get out.

#181 young & foolish on 03.07.18 at 9:49 am

Ahhh … volatility is back …. which means we’re not really missing much. What goes up today, will just come down tomorrow. Bogle is right … 4% … ho hum.

#182 NoName on 03.07.18 at 10:04 am

if you have an hour to waste.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y70q0mjujWk

#183 Donald McRonald on 03.07.18 at 10:17 am

Your censorship is getting out of control, Garth. All I did was post a quote by the CEO of RBC and asked you if you still refuse to acknowledge the impact of foreign wealth on the housing market.

It’s been posted a dozen times. Try to keep up. – Garth

#184 Stan Brooks on 03.07.18 at 10:25 am

Economy is doing great, blah blah blah.

But 1.5 % (?!?) is too high for the rates (at real inflation 7 % ) so Poloz holds rates for BoC coupons aka ‘the loonie’ at 1.25 %.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/newsalert-bank-canada-keeps-key-150212962.html

Spend them while you can, the sucker is in red again.

#185 Smoking Man on 03.07.18 at 10:26 am

#180 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.07.18 at 9:42 am
#101…exactly what I’ve been yakking up for years…..if your young and eligable …get out of Canada or literally lose a lifetime of opportunity if you stay even one full term of the Trudeau Liberals. Think about it…..$150 Grand a year in Dallas vs unemployment ( or as Mayor Moonbeam bragged ” the lowest paid tech workers in North America”) ….. With low low Texas taxes and low overall cost of living ( a mansion for $350 K) you’d be set for life and likely have six figure savings on top of a new Camaro convertible ( for a third what it costs in Canada) . Your life would have started, your career on the ups, a family on the go…..or Trudeau’s dribbling nonsense for another term…..are you crazy? Get out.
…..

FinTeck is exploding in the USA right now. Agreed taxes will become a huge finteck hub.

Canada keeps wages down flooding the sector with sub par TFW what could go wrong.

Anyone who stays in Canada is a fool. T2 Wynee our going to allow 16 year old newly minted communists to vote. If that happens changes everything.

Get out while you can.

#186 Ben on 03.07.18 at 10:32 am

The funny thing in Van is that places like metrotown are selling more than for west side Vancouver, esp new condos. It’s almost as if people abandoned the west side cuz they thought that was for the rich folks and drove up prices in Burnaby and the suburbs and thought they could never afford west side. A new 3 bedroom condo is 1.6m in Burnaby whereas in Oakridge, a 20 year old 3 bedroom is going for 1.5m. Detached homes have also fallen off a cliff.

And I have no idea how much a condo in my Hood is worth. I have a 2 br next door in an older building going for 1.9, a 3br in a newer building for 1.9, a 2br going for 1.0 in an older building, etc. nobody can even price your home properly. Real estate is notoriously difficult to price in the bear of times. Why would anyone want to take the risk to buy now when volumes are so low and you can’t accurately price your purchase.

#187 Bottoms_Up on 03.07.18 at 10:42 am

#154 Mark on 03.07.18 at 2:26 am
——————
And, it should be 3-4x a single income. Not combined family income.

You described my situation perfectly (and likely other late gen X’ers and millenials).

#188 Mr Buyer on 03.07.18 at 10:54 am

I have seen this a few times in the description on houses with weird prices advertised on Realtor.ca What exactly is this all about? … ***COURT ORDERED SALE*** This is a civil enforcement sale. Listed price is for a registered half interest on title (Fractional ownership) ***EQUITY POSITION ONLY***. There are two people on title and one party’s interest is for sale. The listing Agent has not viewed the interior of the house and has no knowledge of it’s condition, rooms sizes, dimensions and general interior layout.

#189 Kiwi in a Jam on 03.07.18 at 10:55 am

#183 Donald McRonald on 03.07.18 at 10:17 am

Your censorship is getting out of control, Garth. All I did was post a quote by the CEO of RBC and asked you if you still refuse to acknowledge the impact of foreign wealth on the housing market.

It’s been posted a dozen times. Try to keep up. – Garth

**************

You published notes from a Kanga Banger, but no love for moi? I call racism, or good taste.

#190 Tater on 03.07.18 at 10:59 am

#117 Mark on 03.06.18 at 10:20 pm

On the other hand, if prices were legitimately rising on individual identical properties, you’d likely see a lot of people listing into such in order to lock in their gains. The fact that we don’t see such is prima facie evidence that the “gains” as claimed by the Realtors by way of increases to the average selling price were not applicable to individual identical properties, but were only the artifact of a severe change in the overall sales mix induced by a slowing RE market, tightening credit (pricing out first time buyers), and an onslaught of brand new luxury supply.
—————————————————————
No, high prices don’t cause people to immediately list their house to “lock in gains”. A house isn’t primarily a financial asset, it is a shelter. If you sell it, you need to find a new shelter, also at an inflated price, pay a bunch of transactions fees and go through the hassle of moving.

Most people will sell a house when they have a life reason to, rather than a pure financial motive. To get at those equity gains, people use HELOCs. And they definitely have over the past few years.

#191 Ian on 03.07.18 at 11:05 am

Wow Goldman Sachs management in London were just told they’re moving to Frankfurt!!!

Holy Brexit!

#192 For those about to flop... on 03.07.18 at 11:06 am

Click on the link for the mugshots.

One guy didn’t feel the need to open up his eyes…

M43BC

“Meet the Wealthiest People in Crypto.

Forbes recently released a list of the world’s richest individuals in terms of cryptocurrency. There are currently 19 people in the world who own an equivalent of more than $350 million in crypto assets. The top owners of cryptocurrency in the world amassed their wealth in a variety of ways, but most are founders of large cryptocurrency projects and cryptocurrency exchange platforms. Others are either individual investors or part of investment groups and some have established very profitable cryptocurrency mining operations. The one thing that the richest in crypto have in common is that they are all the types to “HODL” (hold on for dear life), meaning that they hold on to their cryptocurrency through any downturns in the market and aren’t quick to make crypto-to-crypto or crypto-to-fiat trades.

The Richest Person

Chris Larson, CEO and Founder of Ripple (XRP), is the undisputed #1 largest crypto owner in the world. No one else on the list even comes close to Larson’s net worth. He personally owns 5.2 billion XRP. The amazing thing is that in early 2018 Ripple is only valued around $0.80 to $1.00 on average. If XRP rises to the price level of BTC, or even to the level of ETH, Larson will very easily become the world’s richest person and have the potential to be the world’s first trillionaire.

Demographics

Another notable thing to mention about this list is that not everyone made their fortunes early on. While some did invest in the early days of BTC (circa 2009 to 2012), lots of people won big by either working on the team at Ethereum or investing in ETH. This is significant because ETH’s Initial Coin Offering (ICO) didn’t take place until July 30, 2015.

The world’s largest owners of crypto are also very young. The average age of the 19 richest people in crypto is only 42; in contrast, the average age of the Forbes 400 list of richest Americans is 67. It’s also interesting to note that there are only men on the crypto list, while two of the people at the top of the 2018 list of the world’s billionaires are women.

Determining the Future of Crypto Wealth

With price fluctuations and the rise of new cryptocurrencies, the rankings for the wealthiest people in crypto is likely to change a lot in the coming years. The crypto market price volatility in January and February 2018, for example, was much higher compared to blue chip stocks or commodities like gold. That means that the rankings could change drastically, even week to week.

Promising new cryptos continue to emerge every day. Some have the technology and resources behind them to overtake the current breadwinners. On top of that, new, decentralized exchanges are emerging to compete with centralized exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. These changes could catapult founders of new exchanges to the top of the crypto wealth rankings.

As the cryptocurrency market continues to develop, it will be interesting to see which people emerge to become the wealthiest crypto owners of the future and who from the current Forbes list may fall out of the rankings.”

https://howmuch.net/articles/the-richest-people-in-cryptocurrency

#193 Stunning CRA article... on 03.07.18 at 11:10 am

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/cra-slammed-apos-reprehensible-malicious-235227560.html

#194 Blacksheep on 03.07.18 at 11:14 am

Can fight NDP # 114,

“The Government wants to crash the market”

“if these measures don’t work the Government WILL increase measures to ensure the desired effect is realized. Trust me. I know. I’m the person who is most responsible for the 15% tax. Don’t Believe me”

“We are going to CRUSH the market.”
——————————————–
No….No I don’t believe you….

I don’t care for Mister Hogan or his policies, but I’m the first to admit, no one gets as far (accidental premier) as he has by being a stupid person or repeatedly making, stupid choices.

The consequences to his (and supposedly your) careers would be absolutely catastrophic, if he was to actually be responsible for a RE “CRASH” in Van.

He (& you) would not be seen as conquering hero’s to the huddled masses when a recession of epic proportions sweeps over the GVRD.

He would cursed about 20 years from now, any time some kid, straight out school dared suggested voting for dreaded NDP, if the party was even able to survive.

Nope, he is not that stupid.

The NDP are going to leave recent actions in place, just long enough, attempting to stall the momentum and then the reverse direction of VAN RE values.

Nobody spends a lifetime in any field to finally reach the peak of their potential success and then fall on sword to appease the minority of the population that simply lack the #’s to get them re elected.

He and the NDP have one shot at profesional redemption, this is the opportunity of his lifetime and if he is smart (as I said, I think he is) the course currently plotted will be corrected long before said crash occurs and he and his party will proudly proclaim:

Mission accomplished!

Taking this path may actually offer him a chance at getting legitimately elected and not go down in BC politics history as the guy that f-ed up things for a full decade in BC.

#195 mike from mtl on 03.07.18 at 11:40 am

#184 Stan Brooks on 03.07.18 at 10:25 am

The punchline was in the middle to be glossed over:

“..Poloz said in a speech in London, where he accepted the central bank of the year award on behalf of the Bank of Canada.”

#196 Bottoms_Up on 03.07.18 at 11:49 am

#115 Ret on 03.06.18 at 10:06 pm
———————
But don’t forget males are paid higher wages than females for the same job. So, once pay equity is established, then you might have an argument for reducing male cpp premiums.

#197 Danny Archer on 03.07.18 at 12:00 pm

#161 maxx on 03.07.18 at 6:54 am
#10 TEMPLE on 03.06.18 at 5:30 pm
. Not an ounce of sympathy for these people who “live here”.”
——-
Granny is a leading-edge boomer and has enjoyed the cream of peak boomer advantage. .. I’m a boomer and have been very fortunate as well. So prove it granny, enough with the histrionics.
Pay up.
————-
One of the ugliest posts printed here in a long time. I am disappointed and regretful to publish it. The politics of division is poisoning us. – Garth

††††
Scene from Blood Diamond (2006)

Old man surrounded by many dead in a burned-out village:
“Well, I hope they don’t find oil here.
Then we’d have real problems.”

#198 anti-Anarchy in the UK on 03.07.18 at 12:12 pm

#192 For those about to flop… on 03.07.18 at 11:06 am

“Meet the Wealthiest People in Crypto…..

************

As the Irish like to say, “The jig is up.”
Mark Carney on stupid – who knew he had a sense of humour?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/02/bitcoin-faces-regulatory-crackdown-bank-england-warns

#199 The Wet One on 03.07.18 at 12:13 pm

Edmonton hasn’t been hit much yet. The tide is probably turning, but not by much so far according to the latest stats.

I hope it bottoms soon (about 2 years from now) so I can be in a position to buy when the downturn is almost over. I doubt that will be happening though. I’ll probably take it in the nose because that’s what usually happens.

#200 James on 03.07.18 at 12:21 pm

#185 Smoking Man on 03.07.18 at 10:26 am

#180 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.07.18 at 9:42 am
#101…exactly what I’ve been yakking up for years…..if your young and eligable …get out of Canada or literally lose a lifetime of opportunity if you stay even one full term of the Trudeau Liberals. Think about it…..$150 Grand a year in Dallas vs unemployment ( or as Mayor Moonbeam bragged ” the lowest paid tech workers in North America”) ….. With low low Texas taxes and low overall cost of living ( a mansion for $350 K) you’d be set for life and likely have six figure savings on top of a new Camaro convertible ( for a third what it costs in Canada) . Your life would have started, your career on the ups, a family on the go…..or Trudeau’s dribbling nonsense for another term…..are you crazy? Get out.
…..
FinTeck is exploding in the USA right now. Agreed taxes will become a huge finteck hub.
Canada keeps wages down flooding the sector with sub par TFW what could go wrong.
Anyone who stays in Canada is a fool. T2 Wynee our going to allow 16 year old newly minted communists to vote. If that happens changes everything.
Get out while you can.
_______________________________________
So I surmise that we “fools” here in Canada will not expect to ever see your repugnant face here again?
OK, I’m OK with being a fool. If you are in the USA then we in Canada have drained the swamp here just a little bit. Please stay where you are as you verily are becoming the quintessential essence of the “Ugly American.” Today, the phrase is shorthand for our compatriots who wear tube tops to the Vatican or shout for Big Macs in Beijing but you are perhaps the quintessential “Ugly Canadian” that we have exported to the poor unwitting Americans. Either way stay put never to appear back across the 49th. God Bless America! They will need it now with your trumpian thoughts.

#201 James on 03.07.18 at 12:28 pm

#124 Smoking Man on 03.06.18 at 10:37 pm

#95 i,see,debt,people on 03.06.18 at 8:43 pm
gonna be a slaughter tomorrow! bring it on…buying opportunity ..NO NEED TO PANIC

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gary-cohn-resignation-drags-asia-pacific-stocks-lower-1520384427?tesla=y
……

Just watch what happens to CAD…..Get out of the way.

Dr rognosticating agnostic abomination
PhD Herdonomics

____________________________________
Jesus don’t you ever have an original thought?
Its “prognosticating agnostic abomination”, you are truly a digital simpleton when you cannot even copy and paste me!

#202 Doug in London on 03.07.18 at 12:28 pm

There are better places to put your money than a house right now, unless you live in an economically depressed area where houses are relatively cheap. Regardless of what houses cost, most people will still be heating them with gas, and travelling to and from their house or apartment in a gasoline fueled car or diesel fueled bus. They’ll buy groceries or other goods transported by diesel fueled trucks or trains. I’ll stick with pipeline companies like PPL, IPL.UN, and ENB that transport these fuels. Speaking of which, ENB is still on sale now. I’m signing off now, and going out in my gasoline (petrol) fueled car.

#203 James on 03.07.18 at 12:30 pm

The USA has become too accustomed to shopping at Walmart and cheap goods imported from China.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that the trade deficit rose to $56.6 billion in January, up 5 percent from $53.9 billion in December and the highest since October 2008’s $60.2 billion trade gap. The trade deficit — the gap between what America sells and what it buys abroad — has risen for five straight months.
Trump rattled financial markets last week by promising to slap big tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. He blames persistent deficits on abusive practices by U.S. trading partners and on bad trade deals that put American companies at a disadvantage or encourage them to move factories overseas.
Exports fell 1.3 percent to $200.9 billion in January, and imports were flat at $257.5 billion.
The United States ran a $76.5 billion deficit in the trade of goods, which was partially offset by a $19.9 billion surplus in services such as education and banking.
The $36 billion January deficit with China was the highest since September 2015. The trade gap with Mexico narrowed to $4.1 billion from $5.4 billion in December.

#204 James on 03.07.18 at 12:35 pm

Eight times a year, the central bank meets to discuss its benchmark interest rate, perhaps April? Change is good!

#205 Montreal Montreal on 03.07.18 at 12:35 pm

Montreal though! Why such resilience? People here have NO money… Sure it doesnt cost much, but it is money they don’t have still… Can’t understand the economics. Still going strong – for no reason other than cheap rates.

#206 James on 03.07.18 at 12:38 pm

#198 anti-Anarchy in the UK on 03.07.18 at 12:12 pm

#192 For those about to flop… on 03.07.18 at 11:06 am

“Meet the Wealthiest People in Crypto…..

************

As the Irish like to say, “The jig is up.”
Mark Carney on stupid – who knew he had a sense of humour?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/02/bitcoin-faces-regulatory-crackdown-bank-england-warns
___________________________________________
The time to get into Bitcoin Crypto has come and gone. I think I will stick with balanced and steady as opposed to a get rich quick scheme. I’m young I have lots of time for corrections and adjustments.

#207 Penny Henny on 03.07.18 at 12:42 pm

jane24 this one is for you

http://torontorealestatecharts.com/2018/03/06/february-2018-detached-richmond-hill/

#208 Fake News Again on 03.07.18 at 12:42 pm

#147 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.07.18 at 12:51 am
@#95 i see debt people

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gary-cohn-resignation-drags-asia-pacific-stocks-lower-1520384427?tesla=y

++++++

yep.
The Trump Presidency will end with a whimper, not a bang.

What a shit show.
The Washignton and New York establishment are abandoning him in droves.

Would the last employee to leave the White House please turn out the lights……

Who thought the election of a President could be considered a Black Swan Event??????

_____

Yeah yeah yeah……Hitlery will run with Oprah (and her buddy weinstein) in 2020. The radical left will make a comeback. Dogs and cats will start living together……

People need to do some research on tariffs and why they work….as well as how the “establishment” Bush/Clinton/Obozo crime families have screwed the American people for 30 years……

#209 Eyestrain on 03.07.18 at 1:08 pm

#202 Doug in London on 03.07.18 at 12:28 pm

There are better places to put your money than a house right now ….. I’ll stick with pipeline companies like PPL, IPL.UN, and ENB that transport these fuels. Speaking of which, ENB is still on sale now.

***********
I have been looking at ENB for awhile now, and I just peeked at IPL today. They both payout more than they take in, but ENB has the triple plague of debt, dilution, and (maybe) biting off more than it can chew. Credit rating is just above junk now. What could go wrong?

IPL with a 7.46% yield might be just lean enough, but I don’t want to end up being the hog. End-of-day volume spikes on all pipelines are disconcerting. These are utilities not dotcoms. Remember that serial-diluter Penn West ? I did OK on it, but I don’t feel as lucky today.

correction: IPL is now yielding 7.59%

#210 Arto on 03.07.18 at 1:13 pm

#183 Donald McRonald

Don’t mind him. He’s like my dear departed dad. Couldn’t accept that maybe, maybe, he’s wrong. He would argue with anyone till the cows came home that yogourt is black.

I miss my dad.

#211 Loonie Doctor on 03.07.18 at 1:18 pm

#146

Guess it’s no coincidence that I built a woodshop for myself;)

#212 Blacksheep on 03.07.18 at 1:23 pm

Jack # 110,

“Does supply and demand not factor into this equation?”
—————————————–
This comes down to a game of chicken, who’s gonna swerve first.

I’m betting the bulk of the home owners, having already seen higher highs, will hold tight and wait. The rental situation in GVRD (don’t know TO) is just plain nasty and bloody expensive. No one likes getting evicted, for what ever reason. Family’s want stability for their kids, changing schools and leaving established friends sucks.

Don’t know the stats, but remember a surprising % of the population, carries no mortgage and will be content, leaving their res, feet first when the time comes.

Countering the above, is the new draconian taxes being applied in Van that will surely have a very real impact (for a while). How big an effct? Who knows.

But there is no mistaking, the Supply VS Demand equation, applies to all things.

Any body that claims it doesn’t, is a fool or a liar.

https://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.asp

#213 Tony on 03.07.18 at 1:24 pm

Re: #199 The Wet One on 03.07.18 at 12:13 pm

Resale apartments and townhouses have fallen in price 50 percent or more since the summer of 2007. The exact same apartments and the exact same townhouses.

#214 Stan Brooks on 03.07.18 at 1:30 pm

#195 mike from mtl on 03.07.18 at 11:40 am
#184 Stan Brooks on 03.07.18 at 10:25 am

The punchline was in the middle to be glossed over:

“..Poloz said in a speech in London, where he accepted the central bank of the year award on behalf of the Bank of Canada.”

————————————

He is doing exemplary job. Rates at 1.25 and inflation at 7-8 % +.

True, that he is helped by the extraordinary stupidity of the sheeple here, there is no question about that.

=========

I am also posting the following as somebody stated that the mandate of the BoC is to maintain currency stability WHICH IS NOT TRUE.

———-

In explaining its decision to maintain its benchmark at 1.25 per cent, the central bank noted that recent trade policy developments have created thickening clouds around the outlook for the Canadian and global economies.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently added threats of steel and aluminum tariffs to an already uncertain context for Canada that includes concerns over NAFTA’s renegotiation and fears over competitiveness, following corporate tax-cut announcements south of the border.

“Trade policy developments are an important and growing source of uncertainty for the global and Canadian outlooks,” the bank said in its statement Wednesday.

The Bank of Canada also noted fourth-quarter growth was weaker than expected, largely due to higher imports, and that it’s still assessing impacts on housing markets from new policies, including recent changes to mortgage rules.

#215 Spew on 03.07.18 at 1:33 pm

#42 Mark
But RE has been stagnation for the past 5 years for most Canadian owners.

Mark, please spewing that nonsense: there may be impressionable people reading it.

Every year you keep your narrative up, you need to add another year to the “lag in Teranet HPI.”

You know, the prices based on re-sale of EXACT SAME ADDRESS?

Just to remind you: you need to be claiming a 6 year lag for Teranet now, if you claim a 2012 peak value for Vancouver.

*eye-roll*

#216 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.07.18 at 1:40 pm

#168 Rooster on 03.07.18 at 7:45 am
#155 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.07.18 at 3:13 am

And while you are at it, Kill the CMHC. The Governments little market manipulation machine.
And The Conservative party…. I will never forget the emergency interest rates that pumped up our real estate. You guys have stolen a dozen good years from young peoples lives.
Bastards!

**********
Without the CMHC, mortgage rates for many first-time home buyers will be in the teens. Home ownership is an essential element of stable communities. Kill the head of the CMHC (figuratively), amend the rules, and carry on. Agree with the last statement.

===================================

Nice Try Rooster but you are missing the whole point of the CMHC. They pump up real estate prices by getting the risk passed off on the general public instead of the buyers.
This get the incumbent government votes they do not deserve. More homes will sell and prices will rise until times like now when everyone is going to suffer.

All homes will sell at the rate that the buyers can afford, meaning prices will come down.
I was around in the 80’s when interest rates hit 20%. Houses were still selling because they were cheap.

#217 Stan Brooks on 03.07.18 at 1:41 pm

#193 Stunning CRA article… on 03.07.18 at 11:10 am
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/cra-slammed-apos-reprehensible-malicious-235227560.html

What do you expect? Government that is not arrogant, unprofessional, harassing, abusive, judmenetal?

Just look at wild bill and see the dark energy that he radiates.

They are coming after you and even if you have the means to defend yourself, they lose nothing.
No prison, no firing. No stripping of pension.

Taxpayers pay everything.

In my mind such penalties should be coming directly from the salary of the minister responsible for that department, in this case wild bill.

#218 Guy in Calgary on 03.07.18 at 1:43 pm

#161 maxx on 03.07.18 at 6:54 am

What the hell is the matter with you? Do you expect an old pensioner to work in BC to avoid the tax? They should be forced to sell a property that they may have intended to pass down to their family as part of the fruits of their labour? Their should at least be a grandfathering provision.

They have already forked it over. Living in this country their whole lives and paying income tax, property tax and purchasing goods and services. Maybe they ran a business and provided jobs? Maybe her husband served? You know nothing about the Canadians who own the properties. There is just a massive sense of entitlement because people want to live in one of the most beautiful places on the planet and cannot afford it. The sense of entitlement that comes from over there is insane.

I’d love to live in BC but it is unaffordable so I settle for the next best thing. Lots of lovely people in both Alberta and BC. Unfortunately, politicians have effectively worked to divide us and no one can see that. They just blame everything on fellow Canadians and take no responsibility for themselves.

Sad times indeed.

#219 Suzy Sheer on 03.07.18 at 1:55 pm

#202 Doug in London on 03.07.18 at 12:28 pm

There are better places to put your money than a house right now… Speaking of which, ENB is still on sale now.
*********

If you like sales the Bay has a BOGO sale on Levi’s original 501’s, …..but they have a button fly? Welcome to the future?
I had to buy the stretchy kind anyway (thank you Father Christmas:-( – made in Egypt. Get em before Trump blockades the Nile!

#220 mike from mtl on 03.07.18 at 2:10 pm

#205 Montreal Montreal on 03.07.18 at 12:35 pm

Montreal though! Why such resilience? People here have NO money…
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Yes I would have to agree however, even in ‘normal’ times RE sellers here are awfully stubborn. Completely normal to see the same joint languishing for over one year and not even a relist down one dollar.

Holding costs somehow must be manageable I would guess?

#221 berniebee on 03.07.18 at 2:29 pm

#208 Fake News Again

“People need to do some research on tariffs and why they work….”

You need to do some reading yourself. Start by googling the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act .
Hint: Pretty well everyone agrees that this set of tariffs passed in 1930 deepened the depression.

#222 Mark on 03.07.18 at 2:30 pm

“Every year you keep your narrative up, you need to add another year to the “lag in Teranet HPI.”
You know, the prices based on re-sale of EXACT SAME ADDRESS?”

Teranet severely lags behind reality due to its methodology, ie: it acts as a low pass filter by taking a geometric average of price changes between sequential sales on a property, even though prices simply do not behave in such manner. Teranet is also weighted heavily towards units that are actually transacting, while a large chunk of the housing stock remains owned by the same owners for decades at a time. If you’ve lived in an area for a while, its quite clear that there’s long-term owners, and then there’s a subset of units which change hands frequently. So those frequent changers tend to be over-represented in the stats, and they tend to receive a lot more investment in terms of updates and renovations in response to the desire to sell them at higher prices.

Teranet measures things that happened in the distant past and as such is not particularly useful for anything near-term and definitely not real time price changes. There’s other reasons why it is severely flawed as a metric which have been covered by other posters.

#223 Overheardyou on 03.07.18 at 2:31 pm

#4 RentYVR on 03.06.18 at 5:13 pm
“You know things are wobbly when realtors have to reach back two years for a comparison. ”

I get (and share) your sentiment here Garth, but who really purchases a house with a 1 year time horizon. Like stocks and bonds, or perhaps even more so, houses are multi-year investments so focusing on 1 year or 2 year numbers is crazy. So what if you bought at what looks like the peak last year; if you’re like most people and you’re holding for 20-30 years the 1 year stat is just noise.

——

Flippers and speculators for one. Expected prices to rise YOY. I know some in my office who purchased in the last 12-24 months expecting to flip em, ordinary working millennials thought they could get rich quick. Couldn’t sell last year, can’t get a mortgage for the prebuilds now completed. I wished good luck, they’re going to need it

#224 TheDood on 03.07.18 at 2:31 pm

#200 James on 03.07.18 at 12:21 pm
__________________________________

#180 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.07.18 at 9:42 am

#101…exactly what I’ve been yakking up for years…..
__________________________________

Unfortunately for those that disagree, 180 and 101 are exactly correct. If you are young and eligible, get it into your heads now that staying in Canada is a suckers life! Lots would disagree but thats OK.

Canada is cold, has limited job opportunities, pays crappy, and overcharges for everything, most notably the tax you pay and receive less than adequate service for. The cap/limit on TFSA really limit your savings potential as well.

America is warm, pays great, has endless job opportunites, charges less tax, and probably provides less than adequate government service, but is probably better than Canada’s. The gun issue is worrisome, but chances are it will never affect you.

If not America, then Asia, Middle East, and Europe offer great options. Some are tax free (or low tax) options. I know this because I spent half my working life in several countries overseas. Biggest regret so far? Coming back here. We waiting for kids to finish university and then sayonara. Can’t come soon enough.

#225 Blacksheep on 03.07.18 at 2:43 pm

James #200,

“who wear tube tops to the Vatican”
——————————
Whoa on there James, I happen to be a big fan of tube tops. But it’s all about personal freedoms and of course, presentation.

It’s just straight up sexist and discriminatory to require that the feminine form, must be cloaked in a sweaty, long sleeved shirt, just to satisfy someone else’s, personal religious hang-ups, specially on a hot summers eve.

Man, these younger generations sure are tightly wound…This is likely before your time, but it’s about as catholic as it gets.

Watch for the crosses….43,069,340 viewers cant be wrong.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s__rX_WL100

#226 CalgaryReport on 03.07.18 at 3:23 pm

been watching Calgary mid to mid-high tier SFH market for about five years.
it seems price went parabolic from about 2004 until about 2015.
2015 to now has been a slow decline of say about thousand dollars a month with similar homes now selling for $20k to $30k less (out of say $550k).
volumes are down because of less buyers as well as sellers sticking to their price in hope.
as Garth i see a slow and steady decline to a level say 3% yoy from 2004.
wildcard is bailout. in which case us prudent folks lose big time. n stupids make merry.

#227 Rooster on 03.07.18 at 3:26 pm

#216 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.07.18 at 1:40 pm
#168 Rooster on 03.07.18 at 7:45 am
#155 NEVER GIVE UP on 03.07.18 at 3:13 am
And while you are at it, Kill the CMHC. The Governments little market manipulation machine.
And The Conservative party….
Bastards!
**********
Without the CMHC, mortgage rates for many first-time home buyers will be in the teens. Home ownership is an essential element of stable communities. Kill the head of the CMHC (figuratively), amend the rules, and carry on. Agree with the last statement.
——-
Nice Try Rooster but you are missing the whole point of the CMHC. They pump up real estate prices by getting the risk passed off on the general public instead of the buyers.
This get the incumbent government votes they do not deserve. More homes will sell and prices will rise until times like now when everyone is going to suffer.
All homes will sell at the rate that the buyers can afford, meaning prices will come down.
I was around in the 80’s when interest rates hit 20%. Houses were still selling because they were cheap.
**********
Copy that….. You really never give up do ya?
The original point of the CMHC, but they have evolved since:
“On January 1, 1946, the Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation was created (changed to “Canada” Mortgage and Housing Corporation in 1979) to house returning war veterans and to lead the nation’s housing programs.”
I bought a little piece of heaven in 87′ after reading Duddy Kravitz. With only 10% to put down I thought 11.25 % interest was pretty sweet. The CMHC didn’t force interest rates down – but they should have capped the insurance maximum somewhere below today’s insanity. If they can’t fund the game with insurance premiums then raise the premium rates, but don’t flog bonds using my good name as collateral.

You’re hitting the wrong target a bit late. The bankers took advantage of the CMHC because it is run by morons. Easy fix – start calling the bonds (Enbridge/Spectra did it yesterday) and raise the premiums. Boom! Done. Can I count on your vote?

#228 A J on 03.07.18 at 3:31 pm

#203 James on 03.07.18 at 12:30 pm
The USA has become too accustomed to shopping at Walmart and cheap goods imported from China.

This is the ENTIRE issue with the trade and tariff situation in the U.S. They can start a trade war if they want, but they’ll pay, literally, with higher prices on everything they consume. I don’t think the general public is going to want to pay more for clothes, housewares, and other everyday items. Turn most of the things you own over and they’re probably made in China or another Asian country. So great, Americans want to make more goods in their country. But they’re going to pay for it. Workers in Tenessee aren’t going to accept 50 cents an hour to make shoes. So, those shoes will cost more. And the general public will whine and moan that they can’t by sneakers for $40 anymore.

Americans talk a big game about “make it in America” and “buy American” then they go to Walmart and buy “Made in China” this-and-that. If they really cared, they’d buy American made. But no, that’s too expensive. You can’t have it both ways.

#229 DON on 03.07.18 at 3:31 pm

#194 Blacksheep on 03.07.18 at 11:14 am

… No….No I don’t believe you….

I don’t care for Mister Hogan or his policies, but I’m the first to admit, no one gets as far (accidental premier) as he has by being a stupid person or repeatedly making, stupid choices.

The consequences to his (and supposedly your) careers would be absolutely catastrophic, if he was to actually be responsible for a RE “CRASH” in Van.

He (& you) would not be seen as conquering hero’s to the huddled masses when a recession of epic proportions sweeps over the GVRD.

He would cursed about 20 years from now, any time some kid, straight out school dared suggested voting for dreaded NDP, if the party was even able to survive.

Nope, he is not that stupid…

***************************

I have been following closely and yes Premier Horgan (and a coalition isn’t accidental as the BC liberals are a coalition, plus coalition’s are a natural part of democracy if not the essence).

That aside I agree with you. The BC NDP were relegated to the political desert in 2001 (funny how they get in when times are bad after a right wing party allows everything to go to hell).

Anyways, he is intelligent and knows about the bubble bursting on his watch. They are appealing to voters from all walks of life that are currently priced out and most likely making some points with their parents who have benefited from the housing boom, but now have to travel long/congested distances to see their kids/grand children.

The spec/foreign buyer tax may to some extent mitigate the loss of revenue coming in due to a downturn in real estate (Land transfers etc). I believe they are thinking strategically about this to gain maximum votes and been seen as the party that inherited a mess and came to the rescue by doing something and moderate the policy later. Agree.

Watch hows this unfolds.

Their immediate actions did not cause the lack of real estate momentum we are now experiencing – that was already in motion. Yes more listing may result as out of towners list instead of paying the tax (or reside permanently in BC).

#230 jess on 03.07.18 at 3:32 pm

The former Russian spy Sergei Skripal was deliberately poisoned with a nerve agent in a case that is now being treated as attempted murder, the police counter-terrorism chief has said.

Scotland Yard assistant chief commissioner Mark Rowley said the police officer who was first to the spot where Skripal was found in Salisbury on Sunday afternoon was “seriously ill” in hospital. His condition had deteriorated, Rowley said, adding: “Wiltshire police are providing full support to his family.”

#231 James on 03.07.18 at 3:53 pm

#228 A J on 03.07.18 at 3:31 pm

#203 James on 03.07.18 at 12:30 pm
The USA has become too accustomed to shopping at Walmart and cheap goods imported from China.

This is the ENTIRE issue with the trade and tariff situation in the U.S. They can start a trade war if they want, but they’ll pay, literally, with higher prices on everything they consume. I don’t think the general public is going to want to pay more for clothes, housewares, and other everyday items. Turn most of the things you own over and they’re probably made in China or another Asian country. So great, Americans want to make more goods in their country. But they’re going to pay for it. Workers in Tenessee aren’t going to accept 50 cents an hour to make shoes. So, those shoes will cost more. And the general public will whine and moan that they can’t by sneakers for $40 anymore.

Americans talk a big game about “make it in America” and “buy American” then they go to Walmart and buy “Made in China” this-and-that. If they really cared, they’d buy American made. But no, that’s too expensive. You can’t have it both ways.
__________________________________________
Don’t disagree at all with that statement. When a 300 lb Guy named Buck walks into the Walmart in Elkhart County and gets the bill for his shoes and Microwave he will not have enough money left over to purchase a 6 pack of Keystone let alone to gas up his Chevy Pick up. America will get wide awakening, but it will be made in
America to MAGA. Of course everyone will be on food stamps.

#232 James on 03.07.18 at 4:02 pm

#224 TheDood on 03.07.18 at 2:31 pm

#200 James on 03.07.18 at 12:21 pm
__________________________________

#180 Oft deleted much maligned stock.picker on 03.07.18 at 9:42 am

#101…exactly what I’ve been yakking up for years…..
__________________________________

Unfortunately for those that disagree, 180 and 101 are exactly correct. If you are young and eligible, get it into your heads now that staying in Canada is a suckers life! Lots would disagree but thats OK.

Canada is cold, has limited job opportunities, pays crappy, and overcharges for everything, most notably the tax you pay and receive less than adequate service for. The cap/limit on TFSA really limit your savings potential as well.

America is warm, pays great, has endless job opportunites, charges less tax, and probably provides less than adequate government service, but is probably better than Canada’s. The gun issue is worrisome, but chances are it will never affect you.

If not America, then Asia, Middle East, and Europe offer great options. Some are tax free (or low tax) options. I know this because I spent half my working life in several countries overseas. Biggest regret so far? Coming back here. We waiting for kids to finish university and then sayonara. Can’t come soon enough.
_______________________________________
You are only half correct my friend. Now go and look long at a Map! I garanty you do not want to live in Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and for that matter could you take a summer in Phoenix or Laredo? Now lets talk health care…………

#233 Iconoclast on 03.07.18 at 4:03 pm

So if prices are dropping, when does:

FOMO “Fear of Missing Out”

become

FONGO “Fear of Not Getting Out”?

I suspect most people who bought their house to live in it will just hunker down and bleed net worth, while those who bought to rent or speculate will head for the doors.

#234 John Dough on 03.07.18 at 4:06 pm

#228 A J on 03.07.18 at 3:31 pm
#203 James on 03.07.18 at 12:30 pm
The USA has become too accustomed to shopping at Walmart and cheap goods imported from China.
This is the ENTIRE issue with the trade and tariff situation in the U.S. They can start a trade war if they want, but they’ll pay, literally, with higher prices on everything they consume. I don’t think the general public is going to want to pay more for clothes, housewares, and other everyday items. Turn most of the things you own over and they’re probably made in China or another Asian country. So great, Americans want to make more goods in their country. But they’re going to pay for it. Workers in Tenessee aren’t going to accept 50 cents an hour to make shoes. So, those shoes will cost more. And the general public will whine and moan that they can’t by sneakers for $40 anymore.
Americans talk a big game about “make it in America” and “buy American” then they go to Walmart and buy “Made in China” this-and-that. If they really cared, they’d buy American made. But no, that’s too expensive. You can’t have it both ways.
***********

Right on AJ., but there’s one more step. Read my book “The last last in America” and you’ll understand the China Game. Make it cheap and make it destructible. Look at any kind of white (appliance) good, tool, shoe etc. The manufacturer’s here made them to last and they ran out of customers. It’s like Garth shunning the Mills. “Where’s tomorrow’s client’s for me?” Ryan keep asking. The new inflation is breakdown inflation. How many toasters do you really need to buy in one lifetime?

#235 For those about to flop... on 03.07.18 at 4:16 pm

#232 James on 03.07.18 at 4:02 pm

I garanty you….

////////////////////

What happened to the Train Brothers?

Eyestrain and Gravytrain used to handle quality control…

M43BC

#236 Myra Andrews on 03.07.18 at 4:47 pm

CrowdedFartz posted
“@#99 MyraAndrews
New 246
Price Change 48
Sold 130
Inventory 8372
+++++++
paulB ( first name basis?)
New 246 ( New Listings? Or relistings at a “new price”)
Price Change 48 ( $48k? 48 prices up? 48 Down?)
Sold 130 ( Sold for more than listing? Less? Days on market?)
Inventory 8372 ( up from last month? Down?)

The Flopster rocks
You don’t”

I don’t know the answer to you questions. I am not a realtor. Just passing on the daily numbers that PaulB posts daily on the website VancouverCondoInfo

For some reason it offends you. Would you prefer I not post these numbers?

#237 Stan Brooks on 03.07.18 at 4:47 pm

#232 James on 03.07.18 at 4:02 pm

You are only half correct my friend. Now go and look long at a Map! I garanty you do not want to live in Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and for that matter could you take a summer in Phoenix or Laredo? Now lets talk health care…………

——————————

Northern US states might have similar weather as southern Canada. Further North sucks.

Minneapolis is 5 times cheaper than Toronto in terms of housing and you can earn twice as much with little competition.

As for the health care:
I had a really good laugh with an executive from Atlanta Georgia on Canadian ‘health care’, access to specialists, waiting times.

Only a very stupid know nothing/seen nothing would claim that Canadian Health care is adequate.

It is also not free. Try to get hip replacements or dental work for free.

#238 Myra Andrews on 03.07.18 at 4:48 pm

CrowdedFartz posted
“@#99
+++++++
paulB ( first name basis?)
New 246 ( New Listings? Or relistings at a “new price”)
Price Change 48 ( $48k? 48 prices up? 48 Down?)
Sold 130 ( Sold for more than listing? Less? Days on market?)
Inventory 8372 ( up from last month? Down?)

The Flopster rocks
You don’t”

I don’t know the answer to you questions. I am not a realtor. Just passing on the daily numbers that PaulB posts daily on the website VancouverCondoInfo

For some reason it offends you. Would you prefer I not post these numbers?

#239 Stan Brooks on 03.07.18 at 4:50 pm

#232 James on 03.07.18 at 4:02 pm

Of course the stupid will stay.

But managed by the incompetent and corrupted they will achieve very little.

#240 Blacksheep on 03.07.18 at 4:52 pm

DON # 229,

“I have been following closely and yes Premier Horgan (and a coalition isn’t accidental as the BC liberals are a coalition, plus coalition’s are a natural part of democracy if not the essence).”

He negotiated his way into power, because the NDP lost the popular vote by 1,566 ballots. Weaver decided to hold his nose, in exchange for a once in a lifetime shot at actual real influence.

“Anyways, he is intelligent and knows about the bubble bursting on his watch.”

“Bursting” would indicate a complete failure.

We agree Horgan is intelligent and I’m sure in a one on one convo amongst trusted friends, he would disclose that the real goal is for a “RE correction for Van and BC”. To hope for something more severe out of Liberal vengeance, would contradict the very statement that we “believe him” to be intelligent as it would / will be, career ending for him and the NDP party.

Maybe I’m overestimating his intelligence, people stumble into situations they are ill prepared to deal with sometimes and this very well be what’s occurred. I personally don’t believe he actually thought he would get in power. One can make all sorts of ridiculous promises, if your never called on to follow through with them.

“They are appealing to voters from all walks of life that are currently priced out and most likely making some points with their parents who have benefited from the housing boom, but now have to travel long/congested distances to see their kids/grand children.”

Lets play the odds. 70% own RE, meaning 30% don’t. Of the non owners I will bet, 10% don’t give a shit about who’s in power or vote, cause the hockey games on…

Those “parents who have benefitted from the housing boom” Can currently help fund the children’s RE ventures as Garth has reported many, many times.

Remove a significant chunk of said parental equity and the kids will hear, ” Sorry Billy / Susie, we’d like to help you get in to the market, but we don’t have the spare cash due to our looming retirement and Horgan’s god dammed taxes!”

Everybody wants RE affordability until their personal net worth starts evaporating, hard and fast. Reminds of the Tyson quote: “Everybody’s got a plan till they get punched in the mouth”

“Watch how this unfolds” with bated breath….

#241 Entrepreneur on 03.07.18 at 4:59 pm

And now countries like U.S. and us are in a pickle right now, #228 AJ, with the trade deals. But now those cheaper products are getting more expensive. But time to learn from the mistakes from the past and correct them.

People need jobs and have dreams, Americans and Canadians.

But also that buying power of a person within boundaries should be respected as they are the ones that live on the bottom. And we see what is right or wrong. That has been taken away from us with these trade agreements.

#242 maxx on 03.07.18 at 5:06 pm

“One of the ugliest posts printed here in a long time. I am disappointed and regretful to publish it. The politics of division is poisoning us. – Garth”

Shame you feel that way.

My point is not an “ugly post”. I’m one of those fortunate boomers, however I feel that, and I dislike sounding like a Liberal, it is insane that hard-working, motivated and talented people are priced out of buying a starter home, some of which are at two-digit mulltiples of annual salary. Give me a break.

I have absolutely no problem with wealthy people, nor do I wish divisiveness in society, however there is no balance and I feel that Canada is headed for increasing social instability.

Politics of divisiveness indeed. I don’t care where people spend their cash or how much they have. If they can afford 2, 6, 10 or more homes, they should pay a luxury tax.

It’s not like most of those priced out of re are aiming for a castle.

#243 Duke on 03.07.18 at 5:18 pm

#224 TheDood on 03.07.18 at 2:31 pm

============

Agreed 100%. The best decision I’ve ever made was moving to US. My life became much better ever since.

#244 Entrepreneur on 03.07.18 at 5:19 pm

And/but we get to vote. And no more promises, action.

Protesters of the pipeline here in BC (or any other protest) should add some creative thinking to their image. Some suggestions: wear black, black/brown/red oil patches, floats that show drenched sea life, pictures (of before and after, oil tankers, breakdowns and leakage), scientific terminology. And just stick to protesting for this reason only.

#245 maxx on 03.07.18 at 5:22 pm

@ #197 – Dramatize much?

@ #218 – Your point that politicians did create this mess is correct and it’s way past time to fix it. The fix would sting some, but nowhere near as much as those grossly (and foolishly) overpaying for re or even unable to get on the ladder.

#246 TheDood on 03.07.18 at 5:24 pm

#232 James on 03.07.18 at 4:02 pm

Now lets talk health care…………
__________________________________

What about it?

You simply purchase health care insurance in the US, and you’re good. Part of the cost of living in the US. Lots of company cover that cost for you.

What is your argument? That its free in Canada? Big deal. Break a leg and then go to any emergency ward in Canada and you’ll be lucky to see a Doctor within 24 hours. Book an MRI and maybe you’ll get in 6 months from now. Any visit to a specialist requires a note from a GP and then guess what, get in line for months. Our system is free, but it sucks. It could be so much better, but its not.

I’ll take heat over cold any day of the week, and I’m betting so would most Canadians.

#247 Entrepreneur on 03.07.18 at 5:36 pm

And as for loyalty to buy local we all know most people buy cheap for whatever reason. And that is why I think that these big box stores should sell more products from the local area. And if not now or soon one day we will have to. One day common sense will come into play.

And we know most people cannot save so cheap products it is.

#248 Penny Henny on 03.07.18 at 5:37 pm

#243 Duke on 03.07.18 at 5:18 pm
#224 TheDood on 03.07.18 at 2:31 pm

============

Agreed 100%. The best decision I’ve ever made was moving to US. My life became much better ever since.
//////////////

Please take Stan Brooks with you. If you do we’ll throw in a Mark.

#249 A J on 03.07.18 at 5:44 pm

#234 John Dough

I totally agree. It’s too bad everything is quantity over quality these days. Would make sure a huge positive impact on the environment too. But it’s all about money. Cheap labour. Cheap materials. Cheap, cheap, cheap. And we all, including the environment, pay the price in the end.

#250 DON on 03.07.18 at 7:55 pm

#240 Blacksheep on 03.07.18 at 4:52 pm
DON # 229,

“I have been following closely and yes Premier Horgan (and a coalition isn’t accidental as the BC liberals are a coalition, plus coalition’s are a natural part of democracy if not the essence).”

He negotiated his way into power, because the NDP lost the popular vote by 1,566 ballots. Weaver decided to hold his nose, in exchange for a once in a lifetime shot at actual real influence.

“Anyways, he is intelligent and knows about the bubble bursting on his watch.”

“Bursting” would indicate a complete failure.

We agree Horgan is intelligent and I’m sure in a one on one convo amongst trusted friends, he would disclose that the real goal is for a “RE correction for Van and BC”. To hope for something more severe out of Liberal vengeance, would contradict the very statement that we “believe him” to be intelligent as it would / will be, career ending for him and the NDP party.

Maybe I’m overestimating his intelligence, people stumble into situations they are ill prepared to deal with sometimes and this very well be what’s occurred. I personally don’t believe he actually thought he would get in power. One can make all sorts of ridiculous promises, if your never called on to follow through with them.

“They are appealing to voters from all walks of life that are currently priced out and most likely making some points with their parents who have benefited from the housing boom, but now have to travel long/congested distances to see their kids/grand children.”

Lets play the odds. 70% own RE, meaning 30% don’t. Of the non owners I will bet, 10% don’t give a shit about who’s in power or vote, cause the hockey games on…

Those “parents who have benefitted from the housing boom” Can currently help fund the children’s RE ventures as Garth has reported many, many times.

Remove a significant chunk of said parental equity and the kids will hear, ” Sorry Billy / Susie, we’d like to help you get in to the market, but we don’t have the spare cash due to our looming retirement and Horgan’s god dammed taxes!”

Everybody wants RE affordability until their personal net worth starts evaporating, hard and fast. Reminds of the Tyson quote: “Everybody’s got a plan till they get punched in the mouth”

“Watch how this unfolds” with bated breath….
************************

We agree on some things for sure.

Human nature will determine how this unfolds. Right now the BC Liberals are on the hook for this mess.

Weaver couldn’t go with the most corrupt party that BC has ever witnessed. Besides he is taken votes away from the Liberals.

#251 Gravy Train on 03.07.18 at 11:09 pm

#208 Fake News Again on 03.07.18 at 12:42 pm
“People need to do some research on tariffs and why they work…”

It’s really quite basic, you moron! Tariffs are a tax on imported goods, so consumers pay higher prices than they otherwise would in the absence of a tariff. Do you like paying taxes and higher prices on imported goods, you moron?
http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economics/Tariffs_and_quotas.html

(Garth, I guess it must be true that you can fool some of the people all of the time!)

#252 Victor V on 03.08.18 at 7:13 am

Thousands face empty homes tax in Vancouver as declaration deadline passes

https://www.bnn.ca/thousands-face-empty-homes-tax-in-vancouver-as-declaration-deadline-passes-1.1021049

#253 Victor V on 03.08.18 at 7:30 am

Condo of your dreams? Buy it online with your credit card

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2018/03/07/condo-of-your-dreams-buy-it-online-with-your-credit-card.html

If you can buy your groceries or a vacation online with your credit card, why not a condo?

A Kitchener developer and a Toronto home development web hub have launched a feature that allows consumers to buy a condo online using a credit card. The purchaser can specify the floorplan, parking and storage locker they want using the BuyNow button on the BuzzBuzzHome website.

It just makes sense in the age of Amazon, says BuzzBuzzHome president Matthew Slutsky, who says his company’s BuyNow option is an industry first.